Could’a, would’a, should’a — there is so much that a REAL President does, none of which Trump would consider. He’s nothing more than a political con man with no substance, no identification with anyone but his cadre of Mar a Lago sycophants who are bleeding this country dry, both financially and morally. It is impossible for Trump to imagine what a REAL American’s life is like - he just steps over homeless veterans in the streets without so much as an acknowledgement of existence and then passes, along with McConnell the most absurd gift to the rich in American history. WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH MONEY TO CARRY OUR PRESENT DEBT SERVICE because of Trump’s avarice, and we won’t in the future because of his Republican trickle-down fake tax cuts. Infrastructure? Education? Environment? Cyber security? Election integrity? EQUAL RIGHTS? Rule of law? HA! Not going to happen under Trump and the Republicans unless they sell OUR financial souls to the Devil and make it impossible for any of our children or grandchildren to keep this country afloat. Trump is an unabashed LIAR and an incompetent fool. He should be living in a mental institution, not the White House.
6
‘Raise your hands if you support health care for illegals...’
Dems handed Trump the center right then and there.
15
The Democrats push to the far left is driving me towards Trump as much as I hate him. Their current campaign push for things like reparations and Harris’ recent 100 billion dollar black home ownership idea will not only drive me away but millions of other Americans too. The identity politics and constant white-hating leaves a bad taste in my mouth too. (I’m a person of color btw)
36
@N
The center will become crowded with centrist democrats and independents who, like you, have been alienated by democrats' identity fixation and prosperity to give everything away.
7
Strange since trump and the Republicans are so far to the ultra right wing fringe that they cannot even see the center. dems, in comparison are just barely center after being center right for decades, including Clinton and Obama ..
13
@N
One of the most consequential accomplishments of the right/Republican/Fox team has been their success in redefining the Democrats (who really haven't moved at all) as being "far left" as they themselves move off the cliff on the right.
Just another example of their strategy in all things - repeat something often enough and it's accepted as fact.
16
"Trump abandoned the heterodox Republicanism of his campaign for hard-right policies opposed by most Americans."
His approval is 44%--"most" is 56%? Math propaganda or diction delusion in the Opinion Kingdom, again?
If Harris et al. represent what the Cultural Marxists see as the center--the real center is all his.
5
Why? Reparations. The Dems just lack good judgement and timing.
3
OY!
Why aren't the Dems trying to win the center?
3
“... they might be receptive to a Trump who promised to pursue consensus and pragmatism instead of division and far-right ideological crusades.”
At this point who in their right mind would believe ANY promise from the Liar–in–Chief, much less one so completely out of kilter with every fiber of his being.
1
How about this: who has EVER won the presidency by "trying to win the center"? Kerry? McCain? Romney? Hillary?
1
Trump cannot win the center because those people have nothing but disdain for him. Add in his Fascist tendencies, center and far right have nothing in common.
3
Trump does not even think about a "center"; for him it is Trump or black!
1
Make any list of priorities you like, there is one issue that the majority has at the very top and that is getting rid of Trump. This nation is governed by a fascist, racist, oligarchy, with a state religion.
Trump thinks he can govern by executive order and together with his henchmen in the Senate he has been telling the majority that democracy is dead, that he is a dictator and that he has no intention of leaving office regardless of how the public might have actually voted in what he certainly plans to be a rigged election with the aid of Russia and foreign help and money.
This president commits what decent people see as treason every day. He has told more than 10,000 lies and he is running a for profit business while in office and using it to enrich himself, and trying to imprison his political opponents.
He is now above the law. Don’t like what the Sup. Court rules, ignore it have the Attorney General rule that whatever Trump wants to do is legal, even if it is not and we are stuck with it.
So the top of the list of issues is to take our country back even if we have to ignore the Constitution to save it by rejecting the Trump-GOP census and do it again to get a proper count of all persons living here. People know that with the citizenship question and a Trump win, every admitted non-citizen will be visited by ICE and many deported and that is just an extra.
How do you win the presidency without women, credible charges of rape, and without black voters?
2
Forget it, Mr. Bouie. You might as well ask a weasel to start eating grass.
2
Trump intends to pervert the center, not win it. He can play ignorance and prejudice like a piano!
1
I enjoy reading and most often also agree with Jamelle but this piece is an example of a paid writer having nothing to say and going on on a illusionary trip that adds nothing.
3
Umm sorry jamelle-you need to get our more often...sure a majority of Americans support granting dreamers a pathway to citizenship , not deporting this illegals already here; your exegesis on “immigration” is as selective as a Barr presser....but even more so they but want enforcement of our laws, border control, allowing “asylum seekers” to only enter at official crossings, more ICE officers, more immigration justices and reduced chain migration/faux “family reunification” . ....aNd my fellow Dems wonder why tump won in 2016....oh ad keep on pushing Federally mandated busing, guaranteed incomes, mandated Medicare for all, reparations, an free health care for all illegals (here why not throw in data coverage too like presidents receive for free) At this rate, I can see Park Slope going for trump....
2
he doesn't have to cultivate the center - he has Fox
1
It's a good thing Trump never reads "the failing New York Times," otherwise he might learn how to win reelection!
Trump can't tell left,right from center. He only cares about being cheered on by his rabid MAGA hat base that think he is a god-king (very sad). He won the Electoral College with 24% of the eligible US voters in an election fraud aided by Russian hackers. A decent Blue Wave will wash the White House clean again. Get out the vote and restore decency to the presidency.
2
Trump's tally of lies has gone over the 11,000 mark.
"... The Washington Post has tallied all the “falsehoods” that have spewed from Trump’s mouth and fingers since January 20, 2017, to April 27, 2019. Per the Post, that’s a whopping 10,111 in 828 days. And the situation vis-à-vis the president being a pathological liar is getting markedly worse. …."
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/04/trump-has-told-more-than-10000-lies-since-being-inaugurated-washington-post
Loyalty, he knows that the middle is not and will never be a loyalist voting bloc for him. Everything is zero sum with him, there are only winners and losers, nothing else fires the synapses of his reptile like mind.
Trump may not be trying to win the center, but it is painfully obvious that neither are the democrats. Those voters who identify as somewhere in the middle, and I would imagine it's even higher than the 35% mentioned, don't want extreme policies. They either oppose or are very uncomfortable with open borders and massive waves of illegal immigrants. They don't want a massively expensive government run Medicare program despite the promise that they can keep their doctor- they've heard that one before. They don't want to pay lots more taxes to support medical care for every person and their families who step across the border. They don't support abolishing ICE. They don't support ANTIFA violence any more than they support Proud Boy violence. They don't feel responsible for the past injustices of slavery, and are opposed to 'reparations'. They have no issue with voter ID's, and aren't so much in favor of drivers licenses for illegal immigrants. And on, and on, and on. If Trump by some miracle wins in 2020, his victory will be a case of a self inflicted wound- the democrats will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by pushing all of the foregoing.
15
I would add that many moderates are offended by Trump and would consider an alternative but not any in the herd of Democratic Progressives. The only possible exception is a moderate like Joe Biden. The Dems have an opportunity but if they mess it up, many of us moderates will hold our noses and will vote to keep Trump.
5
@Thomas
Then, be prepared to lose America.
Nobody's advocating open borders. that's a right wing talking point that, apparently has gotten into your head.
What the progs want is an end to the cruelty of oligarchy and something, finally for the center of America.
Try LISTENING at the next debate.
They're just tossing ideas out now, be patient and let's try not to descend into a dictatorship of chaos.
The center isn't holding now anyway
7
Seriously, Jamelle, the question is “Why are the DEMS trying to win the center”?! It’s amazing to me that no one seems to be asking that elephant-in-the-room question!
The ONLY way the Dems are going to win in ‘20 is to recruit centrist Repubs so they can grab a few pink states. But who — other than maybe Biden — is actually trying to do that? Certainly not Warren or Sanders. In fact, at this point, a vote for Warren or Sanders is basically a vote for Trump. Those two are so far to the left, they might actually make centrist lefties abstain from voting in ‘20 which is a sure recipe for a Trump re-election!
8
Trump does not need to win the Center. The Democrats will hand over these voters to him - on a silver platter.
Why? The Democrat proposed extreme policies and the politics of identity. The message from Democrats is mostly about shaming America for its laws, its distant racist past, capitalism, and thinking of Americans first. Majority of the Americans - regardless of color - are fair, respect the law, believe in hard work, and are not racist. The Central Americans who leave their children at the border have more faith in America and its greatness than a number of Democrats in Congress.
The 'Center' may very well surprise the Liberal elite and the media again by electing Trump in 2020 - by voting or staying at home.
23
How about we please NOT give Trump any pointers on how to gain more votes!
1
Maybe Trump knows he is going to win because Russia. My state has no plans to beef up it's election security, does yours?
1
Dear Mr. Bouie--please don't give the current occupant of the White House any ideas. I am hoping (wishing, praying), that you are right about the American people and that he hasn't added to his base but has actually lost a few folk. I am also hoping (desperately), that more than a few complacent non-voters now realize the error of their ways, that a few never-Hillary voters, Bernie-bots, Jill Stein crazies and sundry "others" are now so terrified they'll vote for any Dem on the ticket. Here's hoping that slimmest of victories does not repeat itself. (Also, love your writing and thank you for coming aboard the NY Times!)
1
Convincing Trumpistas not to vote for him will be a difficult task. To wit, a good friend of mine, politically moderate, has a sister who believes that “God sent Trump to be president “
How can you overcome that?
36
@Grey. You can't. Any Democrat who tries to reach Trump's hardcore base is just wasting resources. When people believe that someone is sent by God, there is nothing that can't be excused. But, there are some non-cultist voters who might be swayed if Democrats stop trying to appeal to people who live in the states that are already safely blue with radical policies. Save those for 2022 midterms.
6
Trump's entire strategy is to play exclusively to his base (with one caveat discussed later).
The basic strategy for Trump to gain reelection is to turn out his core supporters - those who oppose immigration, LBGTQ rights, and abortion. Add to that those who will vote for the GOP out of loyalty and he has 45% of the voters.
This strategy is complemented by what will be a highly orchestrated social media campaign to discourage those opposed to him from voting or to waste their votes on third-party candidates.
This might allow him to eke out an electoral college victory. However, if it turns out in mid-October that he is losing, he might then suddenly turn to the center, and try to get a few more votes from those who will think that he has changed.
Make no mistake … this is going to be the dirtiest and wildest campaign ever. And when it is over, whomever wins there will be at least a third of the people who are convinced the election was rigged and the president is illegitimate.
52
Trump's not trying to win the center because he can't. Anyone who supports Trump at this stage of the game is, by definition, far right. Supporting Trump would be unfathomable for a true centrist.
120
@Andrew
Broad generalizations about what may or may not be palatable to moderates doesn't make sense. Some are true Independents. Some lean a bit to the left, others a bit to the right. Some may be socially moderate but fiscally conservative. The point is that these people will vote for the candidate that covers the most ground for them personally, absent party loyalty. If the Dems nominate Bernie or Warren, that could turn off a lot of moderates and push them to Trump. You never know.
3
@John I just think Trump is so repugnant to anyone other than the ignorant, selfish and/or xenophobic far right wing of American politics that Trump rightly concentrates his resources on maintaining his base rather than making a play for the middle ground.
7
Weak as Honest Don is as a candidate, the Establishment Democrats will defeat themselves by running as the War Party. Even President Trump is preferable to World War Three.
If we had some ham we could have ham and cheese if we had some cheese.
1
Faux news would crucify trump if he wimps out on his most radical base.
so just Fuggedabout it. Vote the bum out. Once out of office, he'll go to jail.
Problem solved.
1
Could a self-described moderate please explain to me why Trump is better than Medicare for All in your mind? Is all the cruelty, deficit exploding, and bad policy really wiped away by the prospect of slightly higher taxes (which likely would be offset by the fact that you wouldn't have to pay premiums and deductibles anymore)?
The comments to the article seem to have missed the irony behind the thesis (mocking the calls for democrats to move to the center from those who consistently fail to call for the same from the extremist right). I am curious, however. Some of it is the rightwing misinformation (undocumented people cannot be refused care from a hospital right now, with the GOP controlling all three branches of government). Some is a legitimate misunderstanding (liking your doctor is not the same as liking your health insurance). But I cannot understand how anyone who claims to be moderate would want the status quo to persist a moment longer, at least from a good government or "patriotic" perspective. Perhaps, as I suspect, "moderate" is a word people use when they're embarrassed to admit they're Republicans.
To those asking Dems to run a moderate, we tried and failed. Rest assured, the right will never run a moderate ever again. If you're worried about a left revolution, it's unlikely that a Republican Senate will deliver that, so maybe the moderates should consider whether a couple more dollars in taxes is worse that a slide into further governmental ruin.
1
Who would ever believe a Trump who rejected ‘conservative policy making’ and promised a ‘more moderate approach’? NO ONE, no matter where they fell on the political spectrum.
1
Trump is probably the most pitifully inept person ever elected President. But he is smart enough to recognize how to get what he wants from others.
His wants are very few and not at all sophisticated. He wants fame for the attention, he wants money to buy everything he needs to negotiate the challenges in his life, and he wants to do what is easy and fun. He likes to win and not to measure his own abilities but to receive recognition, so any means is fine with him.
The right wing media knows precisely what up to four out of ten people want and don’t. All Trump needs to do to appeal to them is mirror what he hears from Fox commentators et al to know what to say.
He knows that having a third of votes voting for him will give him the majority because less than six out of ten people vote at all. He does not need any more support than he has so why risk that support to gain others. He is being very reasonable.
He does not have to win the center, just suppress the center in purple states with gerrymandered legislatures. That should generate enough electoral votes for him to win while losing the popular vote by at least as big a margin as he lost it last time.
How could it be done? Cut the number of polling places in suburban districts that voted Democratic in 2018. Gin up an "emergency" that would cause these states to start stationing police at every polling place. Moving polling places at the last minute. Print too few ballots for these districts.
Would Republican state governments do it? I wouldn't bet against it.
For trump to win the center he would have to:
1) publicly reject White Supremasists and the American Nazi party.
2) engage his long dormant and diminutive intellect to engage with people who have and use critical thinking skills.
3) he'd have to quit lying.
4) lastly he'd have to be accountable for his time in office, no longer having the luxury of being an outsider, the middle will have questions about his many failures, his Drain the Swamp promise, his HUUUGE Infrastructure plan, his coddling of leader of the Enemy State of Russia, scorched earth trade policy, his obsequious fealty to a murderous Saudi tyrant.
It can't be all about evil Hillary this time around if he wants to win the center, but from hearing the talking points of his first campaign speech, that's all he had.
Hate, distraction and lies won't work with the middle.
Donald Trump is far too ignorant and narcissistic to look beyond his base. He can’t get enough of their adulation, which is why he never stopped the pre-presidential campaign rallies. They have continued into his presidency as “campaign style” rallies, unprecedented (or unpresidented, to borrow one of his ignoramus terms) in presidential history. Periodically he needs an ego boost, so... off to another rally for a hit off that free base! Why would he risk messing with that? I couldn’t care less what happens to Donald Trump, but I almost feel sorry for my fellow Americans, the buyers of his snake oil, his flock that is being fleeced. The elixir they’ve been sucking on is going to leave them with a very bad taste in their mouths, and a nasty hangover.
Democrats: win elections or continue to demonstrate talent in describing untreated grievances. Want power to make changes? Better get people to the polls. Until Dems take Congress, the White House and more state houses, expect to continue existence as the party that combats Republicans by claiming the magic-fairies-on-unicorns cavalry's on the way while beating the crap out other Democrats.
1
Trump doesn't have to 'win' the center. The Democrats are handing it to him.
4
This would be a sensible path to reelection except Trump would be totally incapable of following it. It requires long, detail thought and planning. Trump only thinks in terms of short term plans that give him "a quick bang for the buck." It would require careful attention to the needs of others--which will not put him at the center, but rather the general welfare. There are no losers in this plan, but Trump must have losers so he can be the winner--and show his base that he has triumphed over someone--never merely something.
1
Thanks to corruption, the Electoral College, a complete lack of concern for anything ethically democratic, he may not have to worry about any of this. America is in a pretty low place right now.
3
Trump doesn't need to win the center he needs to win The Electoral Collge. Trump's approval rating is at 47 percent and if that is in the right states we get another 4 years of The Trump Show. Why go for the center and lose some of your rock-solid base? Trump's racist politics works with almost half of the country. All Trump has to do is let the circular firing squad called The Democratic Party run its course. The Lefts promise to give healthcare to the undocumented should put a few points on the board for Trump.
2
@Steven McCain You know that already, right now, today, an undocumented person cannot be refused care at a hospital? You know that no one checks your passport before you make a doctor's appointment, right? We went through this with the ACA squabbles ten years ago: hospitals cannot turn people away, so your tax dollars and hospital facility fees pay for everyone who doesn't pay. That's the current state of the law, and I'd think the religious right would seem this obvious. If that's your issue, you can rest assured that the status quo is not going to change. The right is really good at making common sense principles seem outrageous (rich people pay a similar effective tax rate as the plebes?!?!). Fall for it at your own peril.
1
Trump perceives (quite accurately, I suspect) that his base will stick with him through any vicissitude, and that they will not be swayed by any of his illegal and repulsive behavior. He resonates with their hate and fear so very well. He is also counting on the Democrats to blow it, through their typical factionalism, their striving for ideological purity, their willingness to accept moral victories, and their ineptitude at marketing. Add to this lethargy on election day, social media trolling, and the help of Russia, and he may will have a winning combination.
Get wise, folks, because this election may turn out to be the last one that mattered.
2
But that IS the beauty of gerrymandering and our winner-take-all electoral college. In the last 5 elections the public has lost and the minority candidate became president.
(And spouting derogatory comments and brandishing weapons ....while raking in emoluments....is so much more fun than actually reading briefing papers or finding solutions for a spoiled child president!)
4
Which side is rejecting democracy?
Which side is ignoring the history of socialism and all its miserable failures? Which side ignores Bernie's long standing support for Hugo Chavez policies?
Trump is a buffoon, but he is upholding the rule of law and protecting the constitution.
Meanwhile, the left is loudly and boldly, rejecting the 3 branches of government by putting in place liberal judges to re-write law with their "opinions". The letter or intent of law, seems not to matter to the far left.
Win at any cost, my progressive friends? At the cost of democracy? At the cost of freedoms?
How did that work out in Venezuela? Cuba? Russia? Maoist China? Vietnam after the north overran the free south? Cambodia? awful ugly times ahead if we repeat history with socialism.
3
Despite his bluster, I am sure he is absolutely terrified with what is awaiting him once he is out of office. He has absolutely no positions other than some 1950s ideas rattling around his head and he never has had a moral compass, so that makes him very dangerous. An individual with no convictions and not tethered from whatever principals his party once had and has abandoned is completely unpredictable and I suspect that if he becomes desperate enough he may offer up some goodies that the worst panderers among the Democrats would think right now is a bridge too far. The question is, even if he could deliver, do you want to make a deal with the devil?
3
Why would anyone believe Trump even if he did utter the soothing words of moderation in his policies? His pants have been on fire since he took office.
3
Trump is going to win by sliming the Democratic nominee. Fox will help. Russia will help. Mainstream news organizations will report every outlandish accusation because they feel they must as he is president. Trump cannot beat a healthy nominee, but he can and probably will edge past a crippled one. 2016 redux. Victory through slander.
2
"...in several recent polls he loses hypothetical matchups with Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg..."
He also lost in polls against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Yet here he is, the President.
2
Polling is not voting. If it were Hilary would be President and we would have gun control.
2
The 2020 election will be decided by health care and reduction in income inequality policies and rhetoric. Trump might move toward the center on these, but is restricted by his cult/base. In the end, however, his incompetence, corruption and cruelty will result in his demise.
(1) You can fool some of the people all of the time. (2) You can fool most of the people some of the time.
(3) You can't fool all of the people all of the time.
BUT (1) and (2) are all you need to win an election. The stable genius understands
1
Have wondered that. But please - don't give him any ideas.
1
One can only tell so many convincing lies, and to do so and fool most of the people most of the time, well, that is to give Trump far, far more credit for being a convincing lying sack of dirt than he deserves.
He's not that good, even when the media don't call him out for what he is. (The media should take some lessons from the various late night broadcasting personages. They speak plainly, bluntly, and with no qualms of upsetting the Commander of Fools.)
Any campaign promises that Trump makes in the 2020 cycle are worthless. If the public falls for it, it demonstrates the ignorance of the American electorate. He has lied over 10000 time and yesterday lied about his environmental record. He simply wants to undo the Obama legacy from the Affordable Health Care law, the Iran Accord to the auto emission standards. His hatred of Obama is obvious.
1
Another deceptive heading: win the center? The first sentence says, eh, not so much: "What is President Trump going to do to win the voters who rejected him in 2016?" I didn't vote for him, and bedamned to the writer, I am no centrist. And then we get this gem: that, as candidate, Trump promised a "more moderate approach." As moderate as describing Mexicans as murderers and rapists? As moderate as promising an Islamophobic policy? As moderate as the misogyny he displayed throughout the campaign?
1
Plays to his base, wants only adulation, abhors liberals, centrists and democracy supporters. He is counting on, so far successfully, on corruption, voter suppression, and ultimately force, to maintain his hegemony. What part of dictator don't you get?
Trump is not trying to win the center because he's not very smart. But, like all narcissists, he thinks he is.
Excellent column
Bouie is the Times’s best political columnist—by far
A terrific addition
The idea of Donald Trump making a move towards the middle is about as likely as his setting foot inside of a salad bar. Is there anyone who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 who's even considering doing so now? ANYONE? If so, please provide your actual name along with that of your accountant, banker or psychologist.
1
Why? Because the man is not rational. He is driven by insecurity and narcissim. He feels unloved and he needs a dose of "base" to gee him up.
It's pathetic. But don't expect him to be rational. He is incapable of it.
Trump isn't trying to win the center because he knows that there isn't one....that it's an illusion created by Democratic leadership to keep us voting for their funders' agenda.
We have only 2 major presidential candidates running this year with the inclination ad courage to run against that agenda.
We elect Sanders or at least Warren next year or it's basically all over.
Best imo on 'centrism'... https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/08/14/democrats-must-reclaim-the-center-by-moving-hard-left-219354
You're completely naive if you think he isn't trying to (and succeeding at) winning the center.
2
You are not watching Trump closely if you think he is not working beyond his base. When in Europe for D-Day, he gave a non-political speech honoring World War II heroes. On the Fourth, he did the same for the military. I understand there is a plan in the works for Trump to begin to posture as an "Environmentalist" despite his administration's obvious hostility to environmental issues. Just watch. Trump will now pretend to be all sorts of things he is not in order to manipulate just enough of the vote to get him over the top. It is chilling to observe him in action.
The British Ambassador correctly evaluated Trump's abilities as a leader. However, it is important not to underrate Trump's sophistication and mastery, backed by the Soviets of course, in political manipulation. He is like an idiot savant with a gift in this area.
Sadly, there is also most likely a backup plan in the works for the Republicans to steal enough of the vote to get him over the top in the 2020 election. Despite all the warning in the world, we do not seem to have uniform protections in place to totally prevent this.
Two things: First, Democrats need to quit infighting and move toward more moderate positions. There is always time to explore the boundaries once you are in power but you will never gain power by putting out crazy liberal wish lists as your platform. Secondly, there must be a renewed focus on Senate races.
1
The Titanic was too big to sink. Chernobyl was too big to melt down. Trump is too big and too popular to lose in 2020. Ahh, hubris.
Trump's malignant narcissism is his downfall: he can't envision a loss in 2020, it shatters his solipsistic world view. He really does think that he can stand on Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and still be re-elected. Not this time, Donny; stay in your narcissistic bubble, please.
@Lucy S.
He is not going away. Winning or losing in the conventional (honest) sense don't apply. What part of dictator don't you get?
he has the center.
the echo chambers of the left (NYC, Oregon and California) do not get that, because we are swimming in GroupThink.
3
“Why isn’t Trump trying to win the center?” Jamelle Bouie asks. Maybe because he’s counting on help from the so-called progressive wing of the Democratic Party, much as he got (inadvertent) help from Hillary Clinton’s rigidity and her contempt for many of the citizens of swing states.
If the current crop of Democratic candidates and “The Squad” continue their noisy, relentless push further left, programmatically, bullying the others, many voters may come to believe the Party is dominated by that faction, no matter who is nominated (except, possibly, Biden, who already looks like damaged goods). Many centrist and center-right voters may vote for the devil they know or, in disgust, stay away from the polls.
Trump may not need to try to win the Center. Democrats might just give him enough of the Center to let him win again (but, boy, would they have “stood up for” their principles!).
3
Trump & the Republicans will never try to win the center but they will try to campaign to the center if they are scared that they will lose in 2020. Watch his speeches and the Fox News coverage a few weeks before the election. If (when) the polls show Trump close but losing in key battleground states, he will start to lie more than usual; claim he was working on these problems for a long time but the Democrats blocked success.
1
Why Isn’t Trump Trying to Win the Center?
Simple - because he believes he is the center - of his world - of America - of Planet Earth - the Solar system etc. Trump is of the Ptolemaic persuasion rather than the Copernican. In Ptolemy's case it was flawed opinion - in Trump's case it is aberrant wiring.
1
So, wow...people like their doctors and hospitals sooo much that 45% of us wouldn't care if the government swooped in and "took them away". Someone may want to send a note to the medical industry about making fewer "this new ED drug is THE ONE" commercials and more "your local doc is a good person" commercials.
2
You didn't answer your own question. I will. Trump believes he can finagle the electoral vote count using just his base and some help from Putin.
1
Even if Trump says he will do all of the things mentioned in this column, who would believe him? He lies all of the time. And he is unable to sustain any effort beyond the glitz of the announcement and the attendant press publicity. At most, he will simply proclaim that he has done all of these things without actually doing anything and go golfing.
Why?
Because nobody wants the Center.
But the Center will elect the next POTUS. So it comes down to how many deplorable versus Socialists (a lot more of the former) and the Center gets roughly divided (more of each of the others still).
That is basic math that the Democrats seem to be intent on ignoring. The current Biden takedown and virtual silence on Moderates like Klobuchar is indicative of willful blindness.
2
Everyone (especially center right pundits like the Times' own David Brooks and Bret Stephens) is always saying how the Democrats need to tack to the center in order not to alienate so many voters that they throw away a winnable election. But according to an article published a week or two ago in this newspaper, the Democrats are clearly a center-left party, while the Republicans are among the farthest right parties in the world.
So why aren't the pundits ever talking about how the right needs to tack to the center?
1
Um, that is precisely what this column is about.
This article makes no sense. The current occupant of the White House will support none of these positions. Moreover, no Republican politicians will either, so my question is, "What's your point?"
3
@TRA The article is a satire of numerous Republican-authored "Why Democrats Should Cater To Me" op-eds.
2
Because he plays to his base and hopes that enough of the center will hold their nose and vote for what they think is best for their wallets even if they don't like him. Worked last time.
1
Even if Trump took this advice and campaigned more moderately, his 10,000 lies and counting, would make it impossible for most Americans to trust him, let alone vote for him.
I am hoping his corruption and that of his Administration makes sure that Trump is a one term President
Trump has done enough destruction to last into the next Century.
Please no more campaign advice.
3
Great commentary
Major omission is the concern moderates have about protecting the Bill of Rights from Trump assault. His base is willfully blind to those attacks. The left plus moderates in both parties should be reminded of those assaults until Election Day 2020
2
The changes that would be required of Trump so as to appeal to presently non-Trump supporters is not within the capability of Trump.
He would, first off, have to act more presidential and less immature. His denigrating others, his name calling, his lies and especially his war with the media (outside of FOX News) would be the first change he would have to make so he could be more palatable to decent Americans. His ego and his narcissism would not permit him to do that IMO.
His inability to think long term on issues that affect the entire country is greatly hampered by his inability to study the issue before making a decision on it. And his unwillingness to take into consideration others opinions before making a decision is not something he could do easily, holding the idea that he, and he alone, knows more about most subjects than those whose long careers give them gravitas he does not have.
For this voter, I would vote for my daughter's dog before I would vote for Trump, not because I'm a Democrat voter but because he is unsuitable to hold the office of POTUS.
1
Maybe Donald thinks that the Russians are coming to save him again. Maybe he even knows this to be a fact.
Why do I hear nothing from Congress or Senate regarding our preparedness to defend against another election hack?
Are we still going to use these same funky computorized voting machines that are practically obsolete and easily penetrated?
Will we again be saying "what happened here" after we wake up on the 4th to another incredible result?
I can't get over the complacency. Don't both parties want a clean election process? Where is national security on this? Why am I seemingly a voice crying out in the wilderness of an internet swamp of bogs, quicksand, and sinkholes?
Donald isn't worried because he knows what the result will be regardless. Tell me that isn't true.
2
Trump needs the GOP base as much as they need him. He will not move to the center and he will arrogantly assume he will win again. There is no strategy or plan. There is just more of the same.
trump will not lose the elections because of his character or incompetence. He will lose because his policies have hurt ordinary Americans. Tariffs, the abhorrent attacks on Obamacare without an alternative, the corruption, tax breaks for billionaires, a decent economy that is not decent for lower incomes or the middle class.
@Dutchie
Sadly he and his supporters will not visibly lose elections because dictators don't allow that. They are not going anywhere, certainly not quietly.
What part of dictator don't you get? Hope the Netherlands can hold on to it's democracy even as US and GB lose theirs.
1
This article fails to answer the question posed in the title. Mr. Bouie outlines various policies that Trump could support that might broaden his appeal. But he doesn't answer the question of why he chooses not do so. Given his Cabinet appointments Trump clearly believes that wealthy industrial plutocrats should be running the nation. He also believes that brown people do not belong in the United States, and that white supremacists should have nothing to fear from Administration. Aren't these the sort of reasons why Trump has failed to reach out beyond his base?
3
The devil is always in the details. And the Trump administration lacks the competence, credibility, and cohesion to implement well any of the proposals that Jamelle puts forward for expanding Trump's electoral margin. His best hope is that the Democrats also abandon the middle.
Why isn't Trump trying to win the center?
What is the center other than a debased fascilime of "centrist" when it comes to the Republican party. They no longer have a center.
Nor do they have a sense of decency and shame.
1
Hopefully we'll get some moderate candidates either Democratic or Republican. (Are you listening Mr. Bloomberg?) Trump is awful. We need to prevent 4 more years of trump. But the current group of democratic candidates are trying to out-progressive each other and are going too far to the left. if you don't agree with the far left proposals you are a racist or a Trump lover. This is the perfect scenario for a moderate 3rd party candidate to come in and split the vote and either win(which could be ok) or give us a 2nd scenario for 4 more years of trump (which would be horrible)
If the Democrats want to win, we need more moderate candidates who can win over some of the people who voted for trump who are now unhappy with him.
This column is just about perfect. It outlines exactly why, if trump doesn't immediately adopt all the policies clearly identified, he is unworthy of a single vote.
It also clearly identifies the phony reset of the "center", by the right and the ring-wing media echo chamber, way right of where it aught to be.
The relentless lying and bad-faith from trump is just the rotten cherry on top.
1
What makes you think going for moderates will gain him anything when that’s the one thing that will surely alienate his base? That’s not they voted for. They want blood.
Because he's a narcissist. The center will not stroke his ego the way the far right does. He doesn't really care if he wins re-election, he just wants the fans who hang on his every word and love him no matter what.
I'm gobsmacked as to why we still talk about him as if he's rational; as if he is actually a public servant. Why are we doing that? The only thing Trump serves is himself.
1
If trump did this, or that. If, if, if........ I think there's no chance of him doing any of the if things. He's a one note Charlie and that notes gone flat. Trump would no sooner change his tune than go outside on a windy day without a hat. His base will remain with him because..... who knows why? Some simply like to punish themselves I think.
Many middle of the road voters have seen the train wreck of trump and know they made a mistake. They won't do that again. So he'll lose those votes. So to win in 2020 he's going to have to make up for those who will bail on him. Where's he going to get those votes? I don't think he can. He's done zilch to curry favor with anyone other than his base. And even his base is crumbling.
I'm heartened by his demise but I'm also scared. Because a cornered wild animal is unpredictable and trump has certainly got that behavior mastered. I hope there are some folks in the WH and elsewhere keeping him contained. At least a little.
This is the first piece I’ve read that summarizes my own thoughts about trump and the political calculation he’s made not to reach out to voters outside his base. I can’t see how he wins a second term without expanding his base. The only possibility this writer fails to take into account is that trump doesn’t expand his base because he only likes to speak to his supporters at his big National Socialist style rallies. His insecurity runs so deep he’s willing to ignore the voters he needs for those voters he can rely on to lavish love and praise on him. His fragile ego couldn’t handle the heckling and anti-trump posters at a “normal” town hall style meeting.
This is a funny op-ed mocking the numerous "Why Democrats Need To Pivot to the Center" columns written by Republicans (Bret Stephens et al). The comments here arguing with the premise are missing the point - that policies considered "leftist" in the media (Medicare for All, minimum wage increase) are broadly popular and would be considered the "center" in any reasonable discourse. The argument is absurd on purpose - of course Trump won't (and shouldn't) pivot to these policies, much like the Democrats shouldn't bother catering to Republican desires.
3
If Trump is as bad a president as people say, he will lose the election easily. Perhaps Democrats should take note of the fact that there are many people who dislike Trump but view some of his policies favorably. When I listened to the Democratic debate, I reconciled myself to the fact that Trump will win in 2020 because the same polices he demonized that got him elected and buttress his support Democrats are embracing wholeheartedly. My Hispanic friends are still supporting Trump and that should put some fear in the socialist leaning members of my party.
3
Trump would be riding to victory if he started his term with an big infrastructure plan, a real universal health care plan, and the higher taxes on carried interest he promised.
He could have built The Wall as a part of the infrastructure plan. With The Wall, he could have given amnesty for immigrants who have lived here in peace and productivity and led an immigration reform.
Instead, it's been tax cuts for the rich, migrant horror shows, and a road to war with Iran.
2
Could’a, would’a, should’a — there is so much that a REAL President does, none of which Trump would consider. He’s nothing more than a political con man with no substance, no identification with anyone but his cadre of Mar a Lago sycophants who are bleeding this country dry, both financially and morally. It is impossible for Trump to imagine what a REAL American’s life is like - he just steps over homeless veterans in the streets without so much as an acknowledgement of existence and then passes, along with McConnell the most absurd gift to the rich in American history.
WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH MONEY TO CARRY OUR PRESENT DEBT SERVICE because of Trump’s avarice, and we won’t in the future because of his Republican trickle-down fake tax cuts. Infrastructure? Education? Environment? Cyber security? Election integrity? EQUAL RIGHTS? Rule of law? HA! Not going to happen under Trump and the Republicans unless they sell OUR financial souls to the Devil and make it impossible for any of our children or grandchildren to keep this country afloat.
Trump is an unabashed LIAR and an incompetent fool. He should be living in a mental institution, not the White House.
1
He is. Your assumption is wrong. This is now a right wing country. People on the right are wise to institutions like the media and its polls. They just don't tell the truth about how they really feel and the contempt they hold for those of us on the left. Democrats must convince those in the "middle" to come their way or they are doomed to be a secondary, out of power party for the foreseeable future. The Democrats must embrace policies that will help raise the standard of living and provide opportunity for those in the middle of the country. A start would be to force the top 10 employers in this country to provide full time jobs, good wages and benefits to its workers. Penalize companies that leave this country to take advantage of corruption and weak labor laws elsewhere in the world. The global market is not balanced. Figure out how to balance it. Otherwise, prepare for more right wing extremism and intolerance.
3
@Bruce Iverson This is not a right-wing country. It is a country whose overpopulated and underpopulated areas have wildly different demographics, beliefs and values. The middle is a statistical illusion. As coastal cities become uninhabitable and the Baby Boom whites finally start to die off, it's inevitable that the younger and more productive side of this division will overwhelm and conquer the lands of the older and less productive. It's just a matter of time. "Left" and "right" are the wrong terms because they cast us as different parts of the same people. We aren't. We are two countries stuck together in one polity.
1
@Bruce Iverson
Huh?
- Every poll shows Trump behind by at least 10%.
- Trump lost the popular vote by almost 3 million.
- The GOP knows it can’t win an election without gerrymandering early and often.
- Centrist Repubs admit that they held their nose when they voted for Trump because they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Hillary because of all the alleged scandals raised in the final weeks.
So where on earth do you get “this is now a right wing country”?
1
Trump only needs the states with the electoral college votes to get him elected, just like last time. He thinks he can do it again with the 35% of Americans that support him. As long as that 35% is in the crucial states he doesn't need anyone else.
4
Instead of the middle ground you suggest, Trump will double down on his bases prejudices and seek the help of Putin to supply the necessary votes in key states. Suppression will of course be important in elimination of the oppositions' voters.
6
Mr. Bouie, I doubt there's much of a "center" to win, when it comes to Donald Trump. Notwithstanding the number of Unaffiliated voters, I think most by now have made up their minds firmly. For many of us, it is not just what Trump does, it's who he has shown us he is.
3
Trump knows that his loyal base won't stop at anything to get him reelected. He feels safe. Let's hope he is wrong.
3
The short answer is that Trump doesn't need the center to win the election. People in the center don't necessarily vote. His base is very loyal. They vote. I personally know of several people who hadn't voted in a presidential election in decades who voted for him in 2016 and will again next. They don't even know what a local election is and don't care. And they don't read position papers.
He doesn't need to win the popular vote, just the Electoral College. That's how he became the winner in 2016, and that's how he'll win again. The base is in those states he needs to win the Electoral College. I live in Florida, and I have every confidence he will carry this state again. We have a Republican governor, and Trump identifies with this state more than New York. Forget the centrists.
He has a record of delivering for the GOP and the GOP Senate has delivered for him. Why would he alienate the group that's blocking impeachment? And, once again, those conservative Republican senators represent states that are a solid part of the Electoral College win.
He'll never abandon the base that gives him the adulation he craves. He basks in their adoring presence at the numerous rallies he's held. Why would he lose that to pick up a few crummy votes from the center, from people who have ambiguous feelings about him? And who may not vote?
The GOP statistics guys have figured he'll win by doing exactly what he's doing. And they're right. And he knows it.
1
Mr. Bouie is not wrong, but he only discusses half the topic.
The real question is, why are the Democratic presidential contenders so intent on losing the center ?
Proposals like reparations for slavery, free college, open borders, a green new deal, taking away existing medical insurance, providing $25K per black family to propel black family wealth, more money for teachers (who pays for those pensions ?), and other giveaways are certainly great ideas for the far left during primary season, but is that really what the middle class voters of Erie, PA, or St Paul, MN want ?
While many, or even most, people dislike Trump personally, the November 2020 vote is about choices, and if the choice is between Trump and one of the current Democratic leaders, I am not at all sure Trump loses.
6
@G, that's why Biden still leads the polls, despite attacks like Harris' little hurt girl narrative (to hurt him and to keep attention off her own dreadful treatment of minorities, immigrants, and prisoners as a "law and order" AG of California. Or AOC's attacks on Pelosi for not impeaching Trump right now. Of course such an attempt will fail, while with a potential democratic senate next year, it could succeed. But both these candidates are building personal followings in these attacks on their own party. Effective? Yes. In gathering fans. And in bringing division to the party which will soon have to fight Trump. Disclosure: I prefer Warren, who would not trade the national interest for her personal gain. But first and always, against Trump.
3
Ok, Trump is not reaching out to the middle. Who is, the Democrats? Not so far, so the question is whether the middle will just sit the election out.
3
Why aren't the democrats coming together instead of ripping their own party up? In theory, that's what they should be doing.
7
What counts is not what people tell pollsters. What counts is who actually votes on election day. Trump understands inflaming his base is his best route to victory. Compromise makes for a better nation, but it does not bring out voters.
Trump will never go for equitable economic reforms, like increased minimum wage, because the donor class won't stand for it.
4
Why isn’t anyone — in either party — trying to win the middle? Understand the middle? Leverage the middle? The future, our collective future, belongs to a powerful moderate.
4
Mr. Bouie, the voters are polarized in 2019. Voters never have been more deeply polarized since the Civil War. Our extreme polarization did not occur spontaneously. It is the result of decades of Republican effort to divide voters. There is no reason to believe that Republicans have given up on their ideal of clinging to power by dividing voters.
Frankly, no reasonable person would expect Donald Trump, The Republican President, to work to unite voters.
5
The problem with this column is that all this was known in 2016. The polls on the various issues Bouie lists weren't that different in 2016.
And Trump won.
I think that Bouie underestimates how dismayed a sizable proportion of American voters become at the spectacle of illegal immigrants waving flags and demanding resources and political representation in America. This proportion may not be a majority but there are a lot of them and they are spread out across the states.
7
@Lilo
There are some 800,000 DACA registrants. If 40% of them were to vote (same rate as citizens) that's more than enough votes to swing the last election.
1
They have zero votes. They are only residents not citizens.
1
@Viv
DACA recipients are not US citizens. They can't vote.
1
When, oh when, is somebody, anybody, in the press or on the campaign trail going to point out that we moderates have serious concerns about the annual deficits and national debt? We know that Trump won’t. He is the king of debt (and bankruptcy). He has already stated, “ I love debt”. It seems that the Republican Party does also.
8
Thank you! Finally! I'm so sick of everyone asking the Democratic candidates, "oh, but how will you win the center?/win back Trump voters/ not scare away moderates?"
Ever notice how no one asks Republicans the same kinds of questions, even though they're the ones who have most significantly and sharply moved away from the center over the last several decades?
So thank you for finally asking. In the words of another conservative president, don't harm the Republicans with "the soft bigotry of low expectations" -- instead, hold them at least to the same standard as Democrats when it comes to asking if they're "going too far" one way or another.
11
The possibility I could vote for Mr. Trump is zero. But the possibility I could vote for Mr. Biden also is zero. Be careful, Democrats. You need to provide more of a reason for our votes than simply running someone against Mr. Trump.
Leadership is not reading the polls and following what seems to be popular or what seems to be electable.
Show us a set of policies that will end the incessant wars, that will stop investors from feeding at the public trough, that will end profit taking as a motive in our health care system, that well end treating education as way of providing workers for the investor class and a way of making money for the myriad Trump Universities of the profit-making type.
Lead in a way that provides dignity for the poor and security for the middle class. Stop comforting the elite.
Don't take for granted that you will get our votes only because you're running against Mr. Trump. We won't support you if that's all you provide. We can reject both of the elitist parties. It's no wonder that such a high percentage of potential voters don't bother to vote.
8
Florida is absolutely not going to expand Medicaid. Republicans triumped (if narrowly) in 2016 and there's no sign of the legislature, especially the House, going Democratic. House members tend to be ALEC members. The House is the firm center of health care cost cutting in the name of keeping taxes low and the state's economy healthy. This year, public health clinics are closing around the state.
A major source of support for shrinking Medicaid rather than expanding it seems to be the growing Medicare population, who fear that more Medicaid recipients would mean competition for medical resources.
2
What Trump is and his associates are counting on is that the voting process is going to be a mess, with a lot of cyber-induced technical problems, weirdly particularly in Dem-leaning districts. Maybe there will be a repeat of the Bush - Gore drama, and the Supreme Court handing him te election. They're counting on suppression of the minority vote in states with GOP governors. And last but not least he's counting on the Democratic primary process making sure the eventual candidate will emerge bleeding from a thousand cuts.
6
Luckily, trump is not capable of either reading or comprehending this article. Otherwise, the unimaginable horror of four more years of this would loom terrifyingly large.
5
I think a very important point about Trump’s tactic’s is being missed here. Its not that he is ignoring the middle while he continues to rile up his base. He’s waiting for the right time. Once the Democrats have finished their internecine warfare Trump will have ample ammunition with which to throw out his juvenile (but effective) insults and half truths an just made up stuff to cast doubts in the minds of a lot those in the middle. He’s a master at it (albeit his target this go round may not be as easy to attack as in 2016). And if he has no major screwups (e.g. no hot war with Iraq) and the dems stick both feet in their mouth, and the economy is still humming, he, sadly, has a shot at pulling it off in 2020.
4
You may be right - the Democrats may once again self-destruct.
Maybe a better question than what unlikely policies this president will take up to win the center would be to ask WHY he doesn't feel he needs anything but his base. Does he know something we don't? He was helped in 2016 by the media he decries and by Russia. And we still don't know how much.
4
Trump doesn’t care about anyone unless you are someone he would invite to his club. He also promised grand changes (healthcare, jobs, infrastructure, tax cuts), but has delivered only on tax cuts which, surprise, helped only the already rich. But his election was facilitated by those who bought the pitch, those who had still not recovered from 2008 along with others who were tired of waiting for their personal economy to improve. In that environment, Trump’s message, including the vile parts, found open ears … in hard times people behave badly which says something about the real state of the economy.
The Democrats’ proposals in the same areas should focus on the financial benefits they will provide. But it’s more than just affordable healthcare or college, this is how the Democrats can provide the financial leg up for millions who are struggling financially. It is still about the (personal) economy and the Democrats need to tell voters that. It should be clear by now that Trump, the GOP, and big business are not going to do anything to improve the lot of ordinary Americans. Just as important, every Democrat candidate should be saying, “If you want your financial situation to get better, you must vote for Democrats so we can control Congress and move forward with an agenda to improve your lives.”
2
Republicans usurped what was to be considered "Center" at the end of the 1970's. It is Time to reject the characterization of medicare for all as leftist. It is Centrist. Republicans have been successful in defining various incarnations of their Brand as the center. The Silent Majority for example was adapted as the presumptive center by Nixon and accepted by the press. When the unholy alliance with evangelicals manifested, the Moral Majority became the nominative center, again generally unchallenged by the press.
It is long past time to end that. To end A) the characterization of Left as in any way impractical or bad, and B) the Center as conservative and against the Left.
The Center wants prosperity, security, justice and equity. Really there are only about .01% of Americans who don't want that. Those things can only happen when a real representative democracy is Not corrupted by that .01%...the financial elite. Trolls and the extremely wealthy aside, Americans are Very supportive of increased Taxes on the very wealthy to effect what the Center wants. No one should shy away from saying that Taxes are a requirement of a decent society. Most legitimate economists advocate for some basic ideas that many people intuitively also get...More money in the hands of the poorest is the most effective stimulant for a virtuous circle of growth for the economy. Direct redistribution and wage policy both work. The first comes from taxes. A Good thing for everyone, including the .01%.
4
As many commentators have already suggested, the results of the 2020 election are already known for at least 40 states. The sooner Democrats begin to think only in terms of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida, the better. And whatever factors motivate swing voters in those swing states, moderation doesn't seem to be among them.
3
Just hilarious. "Thirty-five percent of Americans identify as “moderate" ... Trump, for example, could try to cut a deal on health care. Fifty-six percent of Americans favor a “national health plan in which all Americans would get their insurance
from a single government plan." This is moderate ? Keep in mind that as recently as the last election, the Democratic nominee wouldn't even endorse single-payer healthcare. But now, this is Bouie's attempt at moderation ? Please ...
Oh yes, and regarding that Kaiser survey ... Yes, a slim majority favored single payer healthcare. But when asked if they would still support it if it required their taxes to be increased - as is the case in every country which provides such a universal system - a majority rejected it. But I doubt that this will slow down the liberal spin machine.
One more question. When did Barack "You didn't build that" Obama ever move to the center to appeal to those who did not vote for him ?
4
@Alan Backman When you factor in the cost of premiums and of hidden wage reductions to cover employer costs of healthcare, single-payer (even with higher taxes) is much cheaper than our current insurance system. Europeans pay, net/net, about one-half to two-thirds per capita what Americans pay for healthcare - and get better results. What do you think would happen to American responses on healthcare if they were given ALL the facts? And why is a system that has been objectively *proven* to work well - to work better than the American approach - for decades not a practical, moderate, mainstream solution?
And I grew up in Canada. Despite massive dight-wing negative propaganda about the Canadian system, I *know" it works
9
@Jesse Larner
A huge reason Europeans (and Canadians and Australians) pay less is because they give up their right to get huge cash settlements and limit the incidence of lawsuits.
It's not a practical approach for Americans - despite its benefits - because they'll never give up their litigious nature.
The Canadian system works very well if you don't have a serious chronic illness and live in a huge city.
Outside of that, you're stuck with huge medication/health support bills if you don't have separate insurance. And semi-competent doctors because medical school accreditation is contingent upon "diversity". Try telling people, especially those outside urban areas, that they get "free" healthcare, but it's by people who went to diploma mills in the Caribbean and have been banned from taking board exams in major states.
1
A moderate like Amy Klobuchar could win.
If the Democrats nominate Warren or Sanders, many of the 35% will stay home. Trump will expand the base if he has to, but so far it looks like he won't have to.
1
I’m not a Trumpist but any stretch - let’s call me a right or center moderate. As long as the Democrats run anti-business, anti-growth, anti personal responsibility campaigns focused on identity politics, wokeness, and whatever else the indiscretion of the week is, I will hold my nose and vote Republican.
My vote is there for the taking by the Dems- but not with the woke-fest I saw on TV two weeks ago. Only the echo chamber of NYT readers and commenters, who are certainly ready to filet me as they do Bret Stephens, believe that the current Democratic candidates and what we saw in the debates represent “most of America”.
9
@Jason But Republican white identity politics (and I mean mainstream Republican white identity politics here, not even getting into Trumpian overt white supremacy) don't bother you at all? Oh that's right, it's not "identity politics" when it preserves and expands special rights for white people. White people and our privileges are normative, after all. The fish doesn't notice the water it swims in.
He doesn't do it because 1) he thinks more people will favor his immigration policies than will favor open borders than health care for illegal immigrants; 2) he thinks more people will want to keep their existing employer sponsored health insurance than will want to go to the single-payor HMO coverage that most of his opponents favor; 3) he thinks that most people favor his regulatory policies over those of the prior administration and those favored by his current opponents; 4) he thinks that most people prefer his foreign policies (such as they can understand them) over those of the prior administration. He may be right.
5
The base mostly knows it is fake, just like it knows wrasslin' is fake, but it does not care so long as it is entertaining.
What I would like to know is where the $52 million interest "earnings" came from.
Can we have some hearings? Let AOC ask some questions.
3
Several political writers have written about Tump’s belief that playing to his base, the way Israel’s Netanyahu does, is the key to re-election. This is supposedly at the advice of his all knowing political advisor Jared Kushner. Of course, Israel has how many political parties to split the vote? I have another theory: campaigning to anyone other than Trump’s base would require nuance, and strategic planning. The kind of details that make Trump’s eyes glaze over. What his experts have missed is the extra 10%, beyond the right wing 30% who really are his base, won’t be there next time. People who believed he’d drain the swamp, be a different kind of politician, look out for the regular guy because Tump has all he needs, the anti-self serving politician, etc, won’t vote for him again.
8
trump is as in thrall with his base as his base is with him. he thinks his base will chant the middle over,but I don't think so. I think they have both painted themselves into a corner, a corner nobody else wants or needs. So what to do with the center or what will the center do. If the Democratic Party moves toward the supposed center then they are moving towards maintaining the status quo of the Republican Party including Myrtle. Thats like getting a lateral promotion, all title and responsibility with no benefits or the power to put the title to use. No matter if we can't honestly convince the "center" it is time to stand for what is right not the status quo. We have been kneeling to the status quo since Ronnie and what has it gotten us, our pockets picked, our country on the verge of throwing off the ideal of democracy and being told that with status quo prosperity is just around the corner but we never get to the corner. It's time to stand for the equality and prosperity that our founders envisioned. Vote D or say or say goodbye to our Democratic Republic.
4
There is no center and there are no moderates or independents--they're all by in large conservatives who just don't want to use that label, but mostly support the hateful, bigoted, elitist policies of the GOP while reserving the right to wring their hands and go "tsk tsk."
All their support for healthcare initiatives, increase minimum wages, and higher taxes on the wealthy go out the window as soon as they see someone in a hijab walk down their street.
Regardless, since when have Republicans had to actually win elections to "win" elections? They've overthrown our system of government and they're here to stay. It's over.
4
Timing is everything.
From Mr. Trump's point of view, it is still too early to know exactly whom to attack and to what to respond. There are too many in the field and their views reflect a wide gamut of ideas.
My guess is that Mr. Trump will take up Mr. Bouie's suggestion when the playing field becomes clearer. Until then, even what is center is not clear.
2
Democrats are vying among Democratic voters to win the nomination. They are actually not now "running for president." They are speaking to Democrats, most of whom want healthcare and the rule of law and fair elections and measures to transition from dinosaur fossil fuel sources to more environmentally friendly ones, and at the very least a humane treatment of refugees and asylum seekers. No doubt the candidate who wins the nomination will tailor his/her positions with an eye toward gaining support from at least some of the "moderates." I have to say that for me it is hard to hear comments bashing refugees as coming from "moderates." Yes, the Democratic party would do well to address the fear factor, which is the single most effective aspect of Trump's campaigning. But they can't just limit themselves to fending off Trumpish attacks. They have to propose some version of all the programs that the current Democratic candidates are offering to improve our country, not continue the Republican regime of dismantling it. If you have vision, you can't be just "moderate" about offering it.
3
It does not matter if 52 percent of registered voters said they "definitely" wouldn't vote for him in 2020.
It will be up to, as you have already stated, It's up to the narrow coalition that put him into office (WI, MI, PA, Fl). and the electoral college which is what put him in the office in 2016. Close to three million votes were cast against trump and we still got him.
He will win again. The Democrats are doing a great job of destroying each other.
4
Horsefeathers! The Democrats are not 'doing a great job destroying each other.' The two nights of debates were some of the most civil I have seen, especially considering the 2016 Republican debates where one cadidate in particular sunk to namecalling and genitalia measuring. The whiners here who have to have it their way or no way at all are the ones chipping away at our chances by claiming to be Dems (Russians, perhaps?) while repeating some of the most false and belittling labels that the Repubs use to describe any policy that threatens their status quo. More disagreement will come. Deal with it. But always keep in mind that ANY Democrat is better than a Republican and ANYBODY is better than the current occupant.
Florida will go 49-50 just like it has past 20 years.
I think Mr. Bouie places too much weight on the idea that voters today are rational actors. Sure they want all those policies he mentions but they don’t trust the politicians promoting them to protect white privilege, and I am sorry to say I think that single issue trumps everything else in the minds of many white voters. Shortly after Trump’s first election I was conversing with a friend in a retail shop and expressing surprise that so many white women had voted for Trump after all the revelations of his demeaning views about women and the accusations against him of sexual assault. A woman nearby overheard me and told us she was one of those women who voted for Trump. When I asked her why, she replied with the saddest words I have ever heard from the mouth of an American citizen. She said, “I voted for him because in the end it mattered more to me that I was white than that I was a woman.” I think the same can be said, alas, about many white voters.
10
@Kinsale
I'm willing to bet that the majority of them have husbands or boyfriends wearing the MAGA cap, too.
The only thing sadder to me than this is that I know several very liberal white women with very offensive in-your-face conservative white men because most white men are Republican and the women don't feel that they have much of a choice in dating.
I'd rather be single.
@Morgan Yes, Morgan, that is a real issue.
Trump doesn't need to actively win the center. He will win them, or at least most of them, by default if anyone but a centrist gets the Dem nomination. The current Dem liberal leftist crazy train will not universally attract centrists. Unsecured borders, abolish ICE, reparations, support for BDS and other anti-Israeli initiatives, Medicare for all, guaranteed incomes even for those who refuse to work, Green New Deal, free college for all, student loan forgiveness, etc.? Really? Seriously? Unless a Dem centrist runs Trump will win reelection as the lesser of the evils.
4
He simply won't waste his time or money. He knows which side of his bread is buttered. By tripling down on the base floundering in the mock and detritus of the Republican post-rational voter that will gladly burn the flag if it meant a little itty-bitty tax cut for themselves so they'll have $20 dollars to spend at the rodeo, he maximizes his viability.
2
Because he does not need to do so to win. The Dems on the other hand do...
Suppose Trump "promised" all the centrist policies that you espouse in the 2020 campaign? Does anyone believe that he would keep those promises? The President of 6,000+ lies to date is hardly a candidate to believe.
5
Trump may be counting on the Russians for more than we know. We know that the Russians hacked into at least some States' voter databases -- we do not know what, if anything, they did. And -- according to at least some sources -- we have no clue as to whether they tampered with any vote counts.
We do know that Mitch McConnell has blocked any and all bills to improve election security.
6
Trump lives for the battle. He wants to irritate, insult, and say things to shock. The man is never going to go along to get along, even if the point is to get votes. He thinks he got more votes than he really did and won by a bigger margin than he did. He's also forgetting that along with the current demographics, most older voters are conservative and many are no longer around to vote for him again. I'm hoping he gets the shock of his life next year.
2
Trump lives for the battle. He wants to irritate, insult, and say things to shock. The man is never going to go along to get along, even if the point is to get votes. He thinks he got more votes than he really did and won by a bigger margin than he did. He's also forgetting that along with the current demographics, most older voters are conservative and many are no longer around to vote for him again. I'm hoping he gets the shock of his life next year.
1
Trump does not appear to have any serious thoughts about issues like health care, the economy, or international diplomacy, he flips and flops in an erratic way. Several of the positions he now claims to hold are the opposite of ones he held in recent years. His approach to health care and international alliances has been to destroy whatever Obama did - like everything with Trump, his agenda is personal. He found that ranting about immigration got him attention and votes, but his hotels and golf clubs still employ illegal immigrants. (He says “I don’t know because I don’t run it,” Mr. Trump said when asked if he was confident that undocumented immigrants were no longer working at his golf courses. “But I would say this: Probably every club in the United States has that because it seems to be, from what I understand, a way that people did business.” nytimes.com). Typical Trump denial of his own documented record. A major reason he is a dangerous president is that he could be convinced by those who flatter him to do almost anything (even the unthinkable like putting kids in cages or starting war with Iraq). He and the GOP are set on depressing voting by segments of the population who are likely to disagree with Trump. Addressing issues that concern moderate voters is not high on their agenda. He doesn't solve problems for his voter base either.
3
Cheer up America, there is good news ahead!
Our former very conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, too, won a majority in 2011 because of a very strong turnout of his base. From day one, he did just about every egregious thing Trump has done but a bit more quietly: name calling opponents, no compromise on anything, repealing Liberal laws, alternative facts (“our version of the truth”), suppressing research, gutting environmental laws, intimidating groups who spoke out against him, electoral corruption (his Deputy Prime Minister, Dean DelMastro was jailed for campaign finance crimes), dog whistle immigrant attacks and voter suppression tactics, etc., etc., etc.
All in his belief that if he threw enough red meat to his base and catered to them alone, he’d win again. His Party mercilessly smeared Justin Trudeau in an advert style we’d never seen up here, but he lost in a landslide. By the end of his four years he’d alienated every group in the country outside of his base and enough people (everyone outside of his base) was sick of his constant divisiveness, negativity and vitriol.
So take heart, I think America will Dump Trump in 2020, like we “Stop Harper” ‘d in 2015.
6
@Dave Hill Umm, Stephen Harper was Prime Minister for nine-and-a-half years, not four years.
The answer is simple.
You win centrist voters by being intelligent, reasonable, polite, and engaging in a positive and proactive manner.
Trump lacks all of the above qualities.. and as such.. he is confined to his personal cult of followers.. which clearly is not enough to win him the election. He won last time by enticing some Democratic blue collar workers in key states to pull the lever for him.. rather then their traditional voting choices... and I doubt these same people will make the same mistake again.
2
Totally irrelevant - Trump's low approval rating. Says nothing about electoral college. Polls in swing states are the only useful information.
3
Point taken, but why aren't democrats trying to win the center?
5
@Brian The democrats ARE in the center, by any reasonable definition of center. It's just that we've somehow allowed radical right-wingers to define the political "center" for the last 40 years. Why we as a nation have acquiesced in that, I do not know.
1
@Brian You don't get it. Single-payer IS the center. Humane treatment if refugees and other immigrants IS the center.
@Jesse Larner "You don't get it." This is the exact sentiment that is sinking the left
I had the slim hope (until the inauguration day speech) that trump might actually be more centrist than he ultimately turned out. He could have actually united the country had he chosen practically any path other then the one he is on now: pandering to ultra-right wing evangelicals. He could have easily been a moderate two term president who accomplished a lot. Instead he is a one term president who has done nothing but dismantle the work of his predecessor and drive a stake into the heart of a once great nation.
6
Trump only speaks to his base because they are nucleus of what amounts to a new America. For Trump this is how you reboot the US, you start with a president that excludes everyone but his base. The idea is probably that the base will grow as a percentage of the country by halting immigration and getting those not in his base to emigrate. Migrants from the US driven by fear may flood into Canada. That is one possible scenario.
Doesn't matter. The Electoral College elected him. The people didn't elect him.
5
Why should Trump be trying to win the center when the Democrats are so busy losing it by their extreme policy proposals and pandering to special-interest factions? If I was managing Trump's campaign, I'd be buying air time for Democrats to talk to America. It was no accident that after two evenings of Democratic debates, during which America for the first time got to get a close up look at all of the Democrats running for president standing together,Trump's approval rating went up five per cent!.
6
Trump won't risk losing his base in a risky effort to win over "undecideds." (How anyone could be undecided about Trump is beyond my comprehension.) And that's exactly the trade-off.
I can tell you why. He’s not planning on leaving, even if he loses.
12
All the people who rejected him the first time now know and are probably convinced that he is unfit for the Presidency. With the exception of the economy, whose burst began under Obama, is there anything which has happened in America to make moderates, independents or even Republican-leaning independents move to Trump. For Democrats, he has become the unity candidate. Any Democrat will win full support of his/her party by opposing Trump
3
Trump believes that it is the political center that needs him. He intends to present himself as the captain navigating through through calm economic seas despite the looming social, legal, ethical and geopolitical storms he created. It may prove to be a miscalculation. But Trump is not seeking a mandate from a majority of voters. His target is the electoral college vote. All he needs is the assured support of all red states and a few moderates and independents to put him over the top in some swing states. If there are enough misguided centrists/independents who prefer to focus on their wallets instead of the major non-economic threats that the nation faces, Trump will win.
1
Please, on the off chance that he might take someone normal's advice, don't give Trump good suggestions for improving his chances of winning!
6
He doesn’t have to. His base agrees he’s infallible. The rest are split quite deeply in so many directions that it’s unlikely a majority will agree enough to counter his strong base. Many will come out to vote against him, but the fearmongering will do its job in making any opponent so unpalatable that it will suppress the vote.
3
Let's be honest, Trump's supporters care only about Making America White Again. The evidence is overwhelming:
If they cared about the economy, they'd be complaining about the 2 million of their fellow Americans who have lost health insurance due to Trump's ACA sabotage, the 40% increase in the deficits projected for 2018-2027 vs. the CBO forecast when he was inaugurated, the $400-800 in higher costs per year they're paying due to the tariffs, higher gas prices, higher inflation, higher mortgage rates, the slower job creation in Trump's first 29 months vs. Obama's last 29 months, worse income inequality due to tax cuts for the rich and corporations, repeal of regulations that were a net win for the economy according to Trump's own OMB, and the slower real wage gains.
If they cared about the professionalism, dignity and integrity of the President, they'd be running screaming from Trump after the mistress payoffs, Russia endorsement, Kim-coddling, non-exoneration by Mueller for obstruction, and revolving door in key posts (a strong signal of a lousy leader).
No matter how hard the media tries to keep Trump in office by refusing to maintain easy to find lists and infographics of the damage he's done, its up to voters to find sources of credible information and use them. That is your duty before you vote.
25
@David Doney The media is trying to keep Trump in office? Aside from Fox News- who Trump just called worse than CNN- which imaginary media are you talking about?
It's quite simple: Trump is merely the incumbent of the post of chief executive. His willing show of contempt for the majority of Americans, his utter refusal to be president for all means, morally speaking, he is not the president at all.
7
Does the middle even exist any longer? As the Left goes ever further Left, and the Right responds in kind, the middle has gotten hollowed out. That being the case Trump only needs to win the votes of the Right to retain power but will lose if he sacrifices their support in the hope of peeling off a few left-leaning voters. Then there's the fact that polls give contradictory answers. According to this piece the majority of Americans want less punitive border policies. Elsewhere it has been reported that a majority want stricter border control - I forget the exact phrasing. There's also the fact that many Americans will run screaming from the extremism shown by so many of the Democrat nominees.
3
Trump isn't trying to win the center because he doesn't need to, as long as Americans are as apathetic in 2020 as they were in 2016. 45% of Americans of voting age decided not to vote in 2016.
Meanwhile, Trump's base showed up to vote. 100% of the Republicans will vote for Trump in 2020. Trump is betting, like he bet in 2016, that apathy wins the day in 2020. The Democrats cannot win back the White House unless they rally Americans to register to vote and vote against Trump and for the Democratic candidate. Trump has a huge advantage: Nancy Pelosi. She is the face of the Democrats and she is weak, afraid to go toe-to-toe and she has the spine of a jellyfish. And you can't take down Trump with a jellyfish.
2
What if Trump is the center? Every Democrat running is pretty far left.
"...meaning that over all, people disapprove of his performance as president by a large margin (52.3 to 42.7 percent)..."
I think it's a little higher than that. More importantly, it has been creeping up since he has been in office.
"He still has the economy on his side, but if the president doesn’t try to reach out to voters outside of his base..."
You could say Obama handed him a primed economy. And, the predictions were, Trump would sink the economy. But, he has built on Obama's efforts. As long as employment, trade and GDP continue to improve, he wins.
"...a “national health plan in which all Americans would get their insurance from a single government plan,”..."
Yup, single payer is winner in the 2020 club. Except Harris doesn't want to give up her plan.
"Finally there’s immigration. Trump has made draconian border policies the centerpiece of his administration..."
He could declare martial law on the southern border. Trump could strengthen it with a "Catch and Return" policy.
4
Sorry to point this uncomfortable fact out, Trump can win without the nebulous center. He has already done so - see 2016.
7
Democrats are going to blow it again with another candidate that is desired by Democrats' Wall Street friends, but will have no chance of winning 1on1 versus Trump. Most of the 20 Democrats are fake progressives. Some of them try to look like progressives, but they're faux progressives. Nearly all of the Democrats that had the most talk time during the debates are faux progressives and only one I'm 50/50 if she's fake or not.
1
Trump has no need to win the Center. He has FOX news in his pocket as well as gerrymandering, Russia and Wikileaks to do his bidding. Even the sickening both-siderism of the MSM helps him. It’s going to be a long and miserable sixteen months, folks.
3
@Robert Estep
Tell us how a state is gerrymandered in a presidential election, please.
Trump doesnt need to try to win the Center, he already has the support of most of them.
Considering how far left the Democrats have swung in comparison with the Republicans relatively minor swing farther right, even moderate Democrats are closer to socially liberal conservatives than to most other members of their own party.
That's why you see a lot of high profile Dems claiming they didn't leave the Left, the Left left them.
The story isn't about how Trump needs to win over the centrists. The real story here is about how Democrats need to win them over and how they havent fielded a single viable candidate able to do so. Sure, there's Buttigieg, but he's not a viable contender.
Unfortunately for the Dems, it comes down to Warren, Harris, or Biden. Which means Trump 2020.
9
I don't think Trump wants a second term any more than he wanted a first term.
He wanted to make life miserable for Hillary via tweets, and after 2020, he'll be in his element tweeting away at whichever Democrat wins.
And he'll still have his base -- his loyal followers who will hang on his every tweet.
1
Trump boxed himself into a corner, and it is too late for him to move to the center: the damage already done. If he tried to go center, he will not win anyone over and may lose his base and would be defeated, but he probably calculates that his best chance, and only chance, to win is to rile up his base and hope everyone else stays home like in 2016. Democrats need to rile up as many as possible, and that should flood out any of his supporters. One stat to look at is while his approval/disapproval split is about 43/55, it moves to something like 47/50 when only likely voters are considered.
4
This journalist, who admits that he can't stand Pres. Trump, declares that Mr. Trump must move to his campaign to the center. He will have more credibility when he writes about how the Democrats must move to the center if they want to win, or is only the GOP that is out of step?
12
I don't want to hear national polls.Only give me state polls. This last election showed that this is what counts.
People voting for Trump include people who can get jobs now and will vote their pocketbook, ignoring all the negative impact of the policies allowing this growth.
Finally, I hate the use of the term "the base" which distills human beings down to a simplistic commonality.
3
Trump knows his path to victory starts with his base and going so negative on his opposition that the center stays home.
1
The latest I read has Trump at roughly forty four percent which is high for him but still below fifty percent. So he's had a recent uptick. What explains that. Economy is one but the Democrats have got to be the other. Many of the Democrats have all but come out for Open borders, elimination of private health insurance, elimination of all student debt. All of these are things that the vast majority of Americans don't want. The Democrats at least some of them are embracing policies that are far removed from what most Americans are in favor of as are Trumps. The farther to the left Democrats move the less Trump has to. He may have come to the conclusion that he doesn't have to . That the Democrats are going to move the goal posts so far that he will have plenty of room. He can run on a campaign of peace and prosperity .
12
1. Trump's base needs enemies. It defines his base.
2. Conceding policy to the middle makes the enemies less threatening, hence weakening his hold on his base.
3. His base rationalizes policies against their own interests as necessary sacrifices to defeating the enemies. Stockholm syndrome. Nothing to gain with the base by appealing to the center.
4. His base does not want new members from the center. This dilutes their purity and is perceived as weakening.
5. Trump rarely uses logic, like the outline in this OpEd, to shape his policies. He intuits what is needed, is skeptical about policies advocated by his 'enemies', and is more likely to go the opposite way of what makes sense.
3
If you remember the story about the frog that took the scorpion across the river on its back, that says it all.
POTUS will never focus on anyone than himself in the mirror - and his nature is to lie. He can no more be trusted than that scorpion.
Straw man column for the “Support a Democrat for Prez!” argument at the very end. You’re expecting far too much of the Trump campaign and its antagonistic protagonist. And I know you know this. So, please stop with the wishful thinking, and write about something substantive. There’s 24 Dem candidates out there who need to be dissected.
5
The issue is not "What should, could or would Trump to be reelected."
The question is "What should, could or would Trump do when he is not reelected."
This presents a substantial, well-founded viewpoint, for the most part (except for immigration). I kept thinking that Trump would do what Mr. Bouie recommends, eventually, but the time for any significant change is growing shorter. His famous "instincts" had better kick in soon.
This presents a substantial, well-founded viewpoint, for the most part (except for immigration). I kept thinking that Trump would do what Mr. Bouie recommends, eventually, but the time for any significant change is growing shorter. His famous "instincts" had better kick in soon.
Trump lives in the bubble of his own creation where reality is what he wants and believes it to be.
3
@Networthy ... becaause most of the electorate live in their own little bubbles.
2
@laolaohu His electorate comprises most of America so who is living in their own little bubbles? If it weren't for the ultra-dense cities which tend to go Hard Democrat then even most Blue State would show Red, and they do at finer scales.
Trump can speak of moderate policies but no moderate will believe him. His most effective strategy is to continue trolling the libs, thereby encouraging them to move immoderately leftward in response.
If Democrats pursue policies that effectlively open borders and eliminate private health insurance, Donald Trump will win again. And the progressive extremists who brought us George Bush rather than Al Gore (courtesy of Ralph Nader) will once again be responsible for furthering the destruction of America and the world.
I'm a moderate and I am spitting mad.
1
So there are no worries for the Democrats in 2020. All will win because of healthcare for all, free college student loan forgiveness and the green new dea not to mention all the other giveaways. And the polls show that Democrat presidential contenders all would beat Trump. Trump and his supporters are toast. Right???
5
To respond to what one commenter wrote, that Trump is a plus for Israel. I comment here because it matters for Florida. Trump is not a plus for Israel, except in the same way that a drug dealer with low prices is a plus for your teenage son. If and when we can get Trump out of office, Israel will be in total international isolation thanks to (corrupt) Netanyahu's relationship with Trump (oh, wait, except for Saudi Arabia) and will have completely destroyed its relationship with the Democratic Party. Trump gives Israel worthless things: moving the embassy to Jersualem, nice words at the U.N., recognition of the Golan annexation. Things that sound great but are of no practical value because they make no difference on the ground. If anything, Trump weakened, not strengthened, Israel's claim to Jerusalem, just because everything he touches is suspect, a priori. Cheap shiny stuff. Costs him nothing, costs Sheldon Adelson a lot of money. And don't call me an anti-semite. I am a Hebrew-speaking American Jew. A lot of Jews think Trump is the new Cyrus of Persia. He is not. He is a morph of Ahasuerus and Shabtai Tzvi. Following him is both self-destructive folly and total moral failure.
3
What is Fox News doing to "win the centre"?
1
Trump doesn't need to court the center. The Democrats are doing fine sorting out an unelectable extremist that the center will inevitably reject and hand DJT a second term.
13
Because this mythical "center" does not exist. He already proved it by winning in 2016.
Democrats still talk about this theoretical center as a way to win voters, but it is an out-dated idea. When is the last time our electorate voted in someone who promised "nothing substantial will change?"
5
Here is a question.
If a republican ran against Trump as a moderate would they win? Did these moderate republicans win against Trump in the last presidential election?
What do moderates represent policy wise? Everyone says to take the center but what is it? More tax breaks for the middle class and higher taxes on everyone else? Or maybe less military spending to balance the budget? Maybe they want everything privatized? I mean really what is a moderate and can they win when they didn’t win on the republican and Democratic side last time?
3
Why hasn't he tried to appeal to a broader number of people? Because he is not in office to govern. He is in office to prevent something from being found out. He is in office to do what he is told to do and it has almost nothing to do with a right/left paradigm. He is here to do the bidding of whoever it is that is threatening him. Probably Putin but not necessarily. So, you see, this imposter president has no interest in or intention of governing.
1
If Trump's approval ratings continue to drop to the degree that not even he will be able to dismiss them, be very afraid. History has shown that an effective way to boost loyalty is to declare a new war before elections take place. An attack on Iran, for example, would be a knee-jerk reaction to the problem that sham strong man Trump created himself. He has shown that he will plunge into any action, no matter how reckless or inhumane it may be, to enhance his ratings.
1
The 'center' seems better informed than Trump's base; it won't swallow his outright lies...to which his base seems oblivious (cult of personality of a dedicated demagogue). Besides, Trump is full of hate and resentment, unable to behave like a normal human being, with feelings towards others... and a minimum of decency.
1
He's tricking the Dems into running a progressive far left candidate. He'll take the middle by default.
8
There is something very wrong in our country. We have a good economy, the natural sequella of a recession as severe as 2008-9. We have no wars but some military actions and the Middle East was a mess, as usual. Russia continues to act out. China grows, misbehaves, grows, minimal beligerence. So what big problems did we face?
- Economic anemia, failure to grow wages, middle class anger and a prediction that the working person will become obsolete in 50 years.
- Climate Change
- Border issues
- Political Schism of major proportion.
How have we addressed these problems?
We elected DJT?!? an incompetent with dyslexia.
How has that been going?
- Iran nukes, Russian interference in democracy, weakening of NATO, North Korea missiles, Right wing ascendancy in Europe, India, Egypt, and now British acknowledgement that their American cousins are incompetent.
- Trade wars
- Economic uncertainty, and profligate spending on Tax cuts.
- Further division in the polity.
Seriously, we are in deep, deep trouble. Trump is incompetent; Republicans are patriots to only their party; Democrats continue to be a disorganized political party, sometimes engaged in navel contemplation instead of serious countermeasures. And the people, the citizens, the electorate, are either oblivious or wallowing in tribal rituals. It is almost like the story of the lemmings running over the cliff. NYT, WaPo, CNN and especially you Fox, have a responsibility to warn us away from the edge. But noooo!
1
Reality: he is a a con man and incapable of any middle of the road, moderate policies that would appeal to swing voters. The only policies he has perfected in office are those shoveling cruelty, further economic inequality and de-regulation counter to the public good.
1
Here's why Trump won't or can't win the center: Trump's white supremacist base won't let him do anything sane or humane that might conceivably help a brown American or a brown immigrant. Trump is a textbook demagogue, with fascist aims, who has no use for democracy and democratic elections. Trump, McConnell and the Trump white racist base don't want to win elections. They want to win the ad infinitum preservation and augmentation of white male conservative entitlements, prerogatives, and power.
5
Republicans put children in cages and let them die there. If voters choose to keep doing that after a halfhearted appeal to "centrist" policies, then America is truly lost.
3
It isn't just the policies. It's Trump as a person and that's something that can only be addressed by an election. That some people think Trump is a victim of the news media, scientists, teachers, unions, moderates, liberals, Democrats, the FBI, the CIA and anyone armed with facts will be equally difficult to set right.
3
Trump knows at the ballot box he will get more support if economy and stock market are doing well. It is that simple. There is very little to like about Trump yet his ratings are up.
3
Winning elections is about getting your people to actually come out and vote for you. Enthusiasm matters. Broad but shallow support loses to narrow but deep support every time because shallow supporters don’t take the time to actually vote. Trump doesn’t need to broaden his appeal to win and in fact trying to do so would look like a betrayal of the base.
2
Trump does not believe that he needs the center. If his past election is a guide to the next, he will surely attack his opponent, amplifying weaknesses with lies (the emails!, the health unfitness!), brag about his accomplishments (the greatest tax cut! the border stance!), and confuse the electorate with false statements (best economy ever!, best health care!) No doubt that he hopes the independents and swayable Dems may stay home or vote for a third party or decide that Trump is the lesser of evils. For now he is not seeking the voting majority, but is seeking the electoral college majority. Voters in NY or CA do not matter. Those electoral votes are already lost. His base may be just big enough to give him the electoral college. It worked last time. Social media and perhaps Putin's cyber efforts could help push the count over the top. So what is different? The opposition candidate for one. Hillary repeatedly called attention to Trump's failings, only to find that these messages energized his base. "Trump will build a wall!" was her message. The press covered every Trump rally from end-to-end and assured that the message got through. The GOP, Dems and the free press played to Trump's strength. Result: more votes from the base. Trump learned that the center does not matter. Will the Dems learn from 2016? The election is won or lost in just a few states. Who are those voters? What will sway them?
1
He's afraid to moderate because he thinks he'll lose his base.
It really is amazing why he doesn't try to do something on infrastructure, which everyone agrees could be improved.
He's going to lose most of the "he can't be worse" crowd from 2016 because most of them have now realized that it can get worse.
And since most of the country doesn't even vote, plenty of people who were turned off by both Trump and Clinton will now vote for AnyoneButTrump.
2
Here's the problem: the "issues" never determine the outcome of a presidential election. The deciding factors are narrative and emotion. A laundry list of policy positions will only get the Democratic nominee so far. For most voters, choosing a presidential candidate is an emotional decision. If consumer confidence is as high in November 2020 as it is now, voters will need a compelling reason to "fire" the incumbent. Indeed, defeating an incumbent President is more difficult than many of my fellow Democrats want to believe. But look at recent history: the two candidates who successfully ran against incumbents were Reagan (1980) and Clinton (1992). Both of them were extraordinarily gifted politicians who ran when voters were unhappy with the economy. The unsuccessful challengers were Mondale (1984), Dole (1996), Kerry (2004), and Romney (2012). The successes and failures were even split between the two parties, but obviously incumbents usually win. And, of course, Trump will benefit from something that the other incumbents did not have: Russian interference.
3
He still has the economy on his side, but if the president doesn’t try to reach out to voters outside of his base — if he doesn’t try to appeal to Democrats and Republicans who rejected him in 2016 — there’s a good chance he’ll lose re-election.
Golly, I hope you're right, but I sure am not confident. I am totally scared that all of the Democrats are underestimating his appeal.
Why should he try to reach other voters outside his base? Trump doesn't have to, doesn't need to. He knows that his base will vote for him no matter what he does or says, even if it hurts his base. They believe his lies, and if Trump tells them that the reason they didn't get whatever it is is due to "liberals" or to "elites" or to blacks or Latinos, they'll eat it up and believe him. His base got him elected in 2016. He needs to keep them ginned up, filled with hate and fear, and angry enough to turn out to vote for him in 2020. The Electoral College is what matters, not the popular vote. There was a segment on C-Span not long ago that posited Trump could LOSE the popular vote by 5 million in 2020 and still win the presidency if his base turns out and votes for him, and if he wins enough of the important states to win the electoral votes via the Electoral College.
So he doesn't need to persuade liberals or even the center to vote for him. But he does need his base, so that is what he will do.
2
Why aren't Democrats trying to appeal to the middle? To be clear, I'm a Democrat, and I would vote for anybody but Trump. But all of these giveaways like free college, Medicare for all, $1000 a month guaranteed income, reparations, etc. are just gonna freak a lot of people out. And it even bothers me, to tell you the truth. And why does everything have to be the opposite of the other thing? Sure, I don't want a wall,and to deport 11 million immigrants, but surely there must be somewhere in the middle that's not "let everybody in, and give them healthcare". I'll vote for anybody but Trump, and the Dem fantasies don't bother me much, because they aren't even in the realm of possibility. But I worry a bit about what some of the semi-normal people are thinking out there. I have a feeling they are not good thoughts.
10
@mike: Why do Democrats have to do all of the compromising? Why don't Republicans try to appeal to the middle? I don't see or hear them trying to do anything that will make middle and working class people's lives better. The rich got theirs (huge tax cuts), the corporations got theirs (huge permanent tax cuts), while the scraps thrown to the middle class will expire in 2022.
If there was money for those huge tax cuts, which didn't benefit most people, then there should be money for infrastructure, education, healthcare, and to shore up our social safety nets. Spending and tax cuts reflect who and what is most important, and sadly, that isn't average people, or children, or elderly people on social security.
4
He will never realize how widely despised he his, because his Fox shows don't cover that.
2
Trump doesn’t have to worry about the middle, Putin will take care of him.
1
Trump keeps his base by promoting rabid anti everything policies that do not include the potential for any compromise, a dirty word in his book. He would also right of center Republicans who attack anything proposed by a Democrat, policies that have all been proposed by moderate Democrats. Trump has been a two issue president, one racist which attacks all non white people through rabid anti immigration policies, the other helping the rich and himself with hefty tax cuts. None of this will change.
But Trump has not given up on moderate voters as he uses his cynical tongue to give a patriotic speech on the 4thof July to gather some of those voters. In today's Times there is even talk of him becoming an environmentalist, outrageous but something designed specifically to attract moderate voters gullible enough to fall for the con.
He is a disaster for the country on so many levels. Let's hope he is out of office by January 2021, if not sooner.
1
Just like in 2016, when Trump would have come out on top even if he’d lost the election, he’ll “win” in 2020 even if he loses the election because he’ll have his rabid base’s support -and money- forever.
1
@Josh Wilson
minor elaboration:
because he’ll have his rabid base’s support and *their* money- forever.
If Trump loses the election, he may face multiple indictments. He may be counting on his base, though, to provides him with a sort of "get out of jail free" card.
All he has to do is tell them, like he's been doing for months, that he's being attacked by deep-state traitors who are bent on destroying this country. Trump has to know that at least some of his followers will resort to violence if he's ever arrested, in order to protect their country and their president.
Trump, in other words, is planning to make any prosecution of his crimes as contentious and painful as possible. Maybe painful enough that the new president will give up and decide to pardon him.
If this comes to pass, I, for one, hope the new president stays strong. Trump cannot be allowed to get away with this.
QUOTE: Why Isn’t Trump Trying to Win the Center?
In theory, that’s what he should be doing. In practice, forget it.
QUESTION: Why aren’t the almost two dozen Democratic candidates for POTUS trying to win the center? In theory, that’s what they should be doing. In practice, forget it!
5
And why aren’t the Democrats trying to win the center? We’re seeing a race to the absurd. Who can even keep up with all the freebies. They are creating easy targets for the mis-information crowd. The confusion is already well in place.
10
@Vincent Smith: Where's your center? Mitch McConnell?
1
@Vincent Smith Shouldn’t the primaries be a forum for ideas and discussion? Only through the give and take of debate can we figure out what makes sense and what doesn’t. If all candidates do is stick to ideas that don’t make us think we’ll make no progress. Sure Trump and his allies will latch onto the ones that are controversial and try to weaponize them, but they’ll do that with any Democratic ideas no matter how sensible or non-controversial. The Democrats should not stifle debate out of fear of Republicans m,
1
@Vincent Smith: The GOP has turned so hard to the right it isn't funny. Why do the Democrats have to cave on everything? Corporate welfare and huge permanent tax cuts for them and the super wealthy are freebies. Why aren't you screaming about that? Or is it only when ordinary people get something in return for their taxes that you think it is wrong?
3
There is no center....
5
Bouie's listing of moderate issues is: (a) what many Americans want, (b) are mostly long-standing Democratic issues, and (c) exactly what the Democratic candidates should be stressing if they want to bring this fractured country together. Forget identity politics for now, and focus on issues that help the middle class and all Americans.
Caution: The Democratic candidates would be wise not blow it by wandering off in weeds with their pet projects or being too nuanced about exactly how they would proceed with reforms, which the Republicans will be delighted to rip apart.
Republicans will do all they can to keep from having to defend the indefensible things Trump has done, so the Democratic candidates must always appear to be the rational, moderate adults in the room with common sense and human decency (including to each other).
The Republicans will be doing nothing but laying traps and looking to shift the criticism to the Democrats.
Be prepared Democrats, and don't let the Republicans take your lunch money anymore.
4
To compromise is to ignore the Fox evening hosts, Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter and other flaming right-wingers that "own" his base of supporters much more than does he. That's why he doesn't compromise.
1
Although I don't live in a toss-up state, I am a Trump convert. I voted for Hillary in 2016. Trump lowered my taxes by about $15,000 over last year. He is the best president for Israel since Harry Truman. Moreover, my healthcare is marginally better than it was under Obama. I pay lower premiums and co-pays. I am aware that Trump is a personally detestable malignant narcissist but he benefits me and my family and that's where my loyalties lie. The Dems want all straight white men to be pathetic masochists, begging forgiveness from every phone "victim" group for all manner of "atrocity". They are cloaked in anti-Israel/antisemitic language. They make it clear that they don't want me in their party, and despite the Dem position that all straight men are rapists, I don't force myself into situations where I'm not wanted. There are many, many like me and we will propel Trump to victory in 2020.
10
Trump knows all too well that the greatest allies he has are the people on the left who never fail to support candidates who cut into the numbers of Democratic voters who want to defeat him. (Yes, Jill Stein and Ralph Nader supporters, I’m looking at you.). And if doesn’t know it then his friends in Russia do. Look at how they targeted Bernie supporters and African Americans with lies about Hillary Clinton, helping to depress Democratic turnout. And then there’s the voter suppression. Anyone who doubts Trump can win again is foolish and shortsighted.
2
This is a very good article making a very good point. Most political theory, and most professional politicians seek to expand their base. This strategy of continual focus on a core-cult, that literally would not care if he shot somebody in the street, is not normal political reasoning. And it begs the question: Why does he think it will work again? His election was a statistical fluke, aided by a hostile foreign government. Maybe we just have to take a moment and think about that.
1
From his inauguration forward, Trump has made zero substantive effort to reach out to all Americans, though he is ostensibly the president of the U.S.A.
3
@Michael Epton (who is onto something but does not go all the way)
If the Electoral College and the Constitution are rotten throw them out. Replace them with something decent. Take to the streets if necessary. We are supposed to be a revolutionary nation. That is what we have been fed since childhood. Is it true or isn’t it?
Bernie wants a political revolution. If he does not get his way, the masses will. Remember 1789 and 1917? Nobody so those coming either. Or didn’t they?
1
So long as we have the Electoral College system, and so long as gerrymandering is permitted and practiced,Trump and the GOP do not need the “center.”
5
Some of the comments written here are so close to Trumps tweets and full of platitudes that it’s no wonder the rest of the US has moved on. To the rust belt and the manufacturing states, there is a reason why you kept voting Republican and look where it got you. Hollowed out towns boarded up businesses, hospitals closing, dismal schools, and huge drug overdose plague. This didn’t happen under Obama watch this has been rolling your way since Regan. What the rest of the US is wonder why you keep going down the same path and waiting for a change that never quits materialized
4
When voter turnout in only 50-55% at most, you can win with an energized base. This what Republicans recognized in the Karl Rove era. Chasing the elusive center is for suckers. Republicans realized you win by cultivating a brigade of supporters who will vote like clockwork.
Democrats can be suckers again and chase this elusive center. Or they can look at the evidence. See how Sanders rose to prominence. See how the Democrats' new House majority are based on the rise of a bunch of under-40 young progressives. Follow hard evidence of success instead of the usual chattering class who claim they know the secret heart of middle America but zero evidence to back up their drivel.
3
Which is why the only way to get these voters will be if security trumps everything else. Trump knows this and since his narcissism knows no bounds, the chance of a contrived war going into the election is certainly at least 50-50.
From a decent Harvard Harris Poll:
If a presidential candidate stood for lower taxes and reduced government regulations, strengthening our military, strengthening our border to reduce illegal immigrants, standing up more to China and Iran and seeking better
trade deals for the US, how likely would you vote for that candidate?
Very/Somewhat Likely (Net) 72%
Very/Somewhat Unlikely (Net) 28%
https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/HHP_June2019_RVs_Topline.pdf
So tell me again whose policies are farther away from "the center"?
8
@I want another option
For what it's worth, the same June poll states:
36% say they will vote for Trump in 2020; 45% for the Democratic candidate
Base = registered voters
2
He will prevail.
8
He says anything and tries to do everything to avoid his despicable past. Dominance, control, brown and black hate, white supremacist praise, Mueller hate, Manafort and Flynn and Barr approval, Access Hollywood tapes, and, primarily, the hate of Pres. Obama.
He doesn't care about the center, the right, or the left, the country, citizenry, education, our kids, families, or the flag. He cares about exaggeration and lies, a bully inviting others to bully with him - his loving base.
I'm not ok with this.
2
Because he has no hope of winning it.
2
I wish you learned social commentators would stop trying to intellectualize and rationalize Trump's presidency. The bottom line is Trump successfully inspired and motivated his base to "do something" about their anxieties over losing their "God-given" right to own America and all of her resources. It's a convenient narrative of scapegoating and untruths:
They took your jobs
They pushed you out of your communities
They want your guns
They are the reason you can't succeed
I will restore all that is naturally yours
...in Jesus' name
Who cares about Trump's vulgarity and indecency. Never mind that he is a pathological liar and narcissist. He's making "America Great Again" for the descendants of brutal colonizers and their sympathizers.
Sorry to break it to you, but he will be re-elected, folks.
6
Don’t bet on it!
2
Pundits keep harping on how Trump's ratings have never risen above 40%. What is truly shocking is how they have not fallen substantially lower either. How over one-third of the population is strongly behind this man is completely beyond me.
7
The president already has the center. representing working American families. The booming economy plentiful jobs get tough on the border and a strong military have always been the real moderate center of the u.s. politics.
To my liberal friends get out of the leftist, liberal echo bubble and start listening to working American families.
10
'A majority of the American electorate — liberals, moderates and even some conservatives — want a greater government role in health care, a higher minimum wage, higher taxes on the rich and less punitive border policies.'
I agree that this is the program that most Americans would support. What is needed for the Democrats to defeat Trump is a credible candidate espousing such a program. Governing requires policy and details. Politicians should be giving us a vision when they campaign. The mind-numbing focus on Medicare-for-all vs something more like the ACA is an example of a debate that we do not need.
3
Don’t forget that people often have to choose the lesser of two evils when the vote for President. Who the People vote for will depend on the person running against Trump as much as Trump himself. For example, “Medicare for all is very unpopular for most of the voters. Maybe four more years of Trump is better than having Medicare. Maybe four more years of Trump is better than open borders. V
4
@Joseph Falconejoe: The US political system has perfected keeping sane people out of politics.
2
Aren't we still waiting for Trump's health care (is easy) plan?
Aren't we still waiting for *any* of his "is easy" deals?
What moderate voter would again fall for this charade, or any of his other lies?
2
To ask why he isn't wooing the center implies that he has the capacity to think strategically and long-term. It also implies that he's a normal person, not a malignant narcissist who lives for nothing but instant gratification and the adoration of his base. Trying to win over people who don't fawn all over him? That's not how narcissists operate. They don't feel they have to win over anyone and to do so is beneath them.
2
It's just so frightening to read Neoliberal pundits missing the point.
People are sick of Neoliberals, and that's why Trump is President. That has not changed, and Trump as President will not change either if the DNC and the Neoliberal media repeat the failed process of 2016.
11
Talk of capturing this elusive "center" in an election invites bunk nonsense from uninformed hacks of every stripe, whose advice generally involves nothing more than pretending their own views are views of this elusive "center." A lot of this center might not even turn up to the polls. Losing your base to chase this phantom is a sucker move. When only about 50%-55% of the electorate turns up to vote, you can win through mobilization of your base. That's why Republicans haven't bothered with "the center" in years. It's why Trump focuses on his base. Democrats should do likewise, especially when their base vote in much lower rates than Republicans. What will turn out young voters, for example?
4
@citybumpkin: 3 million votes were toasted to elect a nitwit president, and further discourage voting, in 2016.
@citybumpkin
Agreed. What is centrist policy? What do these moderates want?
Jamelle Bouie writes effectively for his (primarily) progressive NYT audience.
However, it remains easy to 'poke a few holes' in his arguments.
Mr Bouie points out that most voters did not cast ballots for Trump. Correct. Of course, by the same notion, Bill Clinton also never won a majority of ballots cast. Further, that Trump's job approval ratings are under water (and so were Obama's at many times). So, that would have been useful context - which Mr Bouie chose to ignore.
Mr Bouie further recites the (debunked) homily of accusations; (cruelty towards 'immigrants') (Charlottesville 'racism') etc. Summarized as "no sense or understanding of the collective good". (As if open borders (including no distinction between legal and illegal immigration) and no room for debate about tearing down historic statues are 'the collective good').
We can be certain that Mr Bouie's followers will not support a second term for President Trump. Mr Bouie should not be so certain that others will vote the same way. And Mr Bouie could make a much more persuasive case by doing more than merely 'cherry picking' facts.
13
Trump has no need to reach out to the center when he has Vladimir Putin and all of Russia's cyber-intelligence units backing him.
4
Trump's advantage is that his base comes out to vote. Wake up, dems....you need to get people out to vote. It ain't about policies - it'a about commitment to make lives better.
3
The obvious answer to the question is the Electoral College. If you don't need to win a majority of voters, then you only need to appeal to your base. The problem is further exacerbated in gerrymandered districts, where Republican members of Congress have more competitive primaries than they do general elections. Hyperpartisanship exists for many reasons, but one key component is that our system of democracy, as currently designed, rewards it.
3
M. Bouie: Let me explain. In an imperfect electoral system, it is quite possible to win elections, and roll up majorities with minority support. The discipline of Political Science is all about accomplishing this. If a minority of the electorate reliably holds 51% of electoral power (due to small states, gerrymandering, partisan judiciary, appeals to greed and racism), that minority can enrich itself at the expense of the
majority. This was been the program of the Republican Party for fifty years. It's not all that mysterious.
3
@Michael Epton
If the Electoral College and the Constitution are rotten throw them out. Replace them with something decent. Take to the streets if necessary. We are supposed to be a revolutionary nation. That is what we have been fed since childhood. Is it true or isn’t it?
Bernie wants a political revolution. If he does not get his way, the masses will. Remember 1789 and 1917? Nobody so those coming either. Or didn’t they?
1
@Blunt
The current Constitution is deeply flawed. Better than the Articles of Confederation, but definitely showing its age. The "rotten borough" system of the Senate and Electoral College invites corruption, and duly receives it. The boundaries of regional government are bizarre, ignoring both mountain ranges and drainage basins.
Time for a rewrite; to quote Galbraith:
All successful revolutions are the kicking-in of a rotten door.
1
2016 proved that pundits have a terrible sense of where the "center" is. The candidates who veered what pundits through was center all fared poorly. On the Republican side, relative centrists like Jeb Bush faded early. On the Democratic side, Clinton theoretically had the financial backing and name-recognition to pound both Sanders and Trump into the sand. Yet, she barely squeaked out the nomination and lost to a huckster who had never been in politics before.
This is why Trump does not bother moderating his positions toward anything conventional wisdom thinks as center. He is in the White House precisely by rejecting what conventional wisdom thought was center. He has a winning formula. Why would he deviate?
3
@citybumpkin: There is very little about running for public office in the US that establishes competence to govern.
1
Why would he reach for voters in the center?
Because the electoral college makes it unnecessary.
Pick three swing states and stick to the topic that will get you the most votes. In this case its immigration.
What more could Trump ask for then a election system where you can win, without winning the most votes? Sounds like something he would sell at his Trump U, doesn't it?
2
I generally agree with this but I feel there is one issue where we underestimate Trump's appeal to independents and that is immigration. He knows that if given the choice between building a wall and "open borders", John Q. Public will choose the wall. We Democrats continually argue against "kids in cages" and the idea of the wall, but never seem to offer a comprehensive policy of our own to control immigration. No policy will easily be propagandized as "open borders". Regular folks want to first know that illegal immigration will be stopped before they'll even listen to anything else on the topic.
Democrats need to articulate a comprehensive policy along the lines of the Gang of Eight proposal of a few years ago and scream it from the rooftops or I fear Trump could win over those independents in Michigan and Pennsylvania on this one issue.
3
It is not going to happen, Medicare for all, minimum wage to $15, citizenship to illegal immigrants and 70% tax increase. Trump's base and people with common sense are not going there.
8
Do not stay away in 2020. Trump received fewer votes than Clinton. He won because of the anachronistic electoral college and because too many voters would rather stay away than vote for Clinton.
This misplaced blame happens over and over again. In Florida more people stayed away than voted for Ralph Nader.
Trump has seen the Governor Lepage playbook in Maine. A teaparty conservative, Lepage won twice in a state that voted for Obama twice by splitting the opposition. A weak or lefty Democrat combined with the candidacy of an independent would be enough to split the vote and allow him to win. In that scenario energizing the base makes lots of sense. Too many commenters call Trump an idiot, when in fact he has some skill sets understanding the voter pool. In fact the more he antagonizes the left to push for a farther left candidate, the more likely a centrist independent emerges. Democrats will need to be careful about the center.
2
Policies that put kids in cages only appeal to a small demographic.
3
I will add to my earlier comment: if you bring out new minority voters, you permanently strengthen the Democratic Party, you make a permanent dent in racial disenfranchisement in America, and you permanently weaken the former Republican (now American Fascist) party. If you win over marginal white voters who would even consider voting for Trump, you have accomplished nothing permanent. They might vote Democratic, once, this time only, and only on the Presidential line of the ticket. Bringing out the minority voters is good strategy both short-term and long-term. Besides, Trump owns the messaging to the white conservative voters. That is very hard to crack. He does not own the messaging to the minority voters.
He isn't trying to win the center because he doesn't want the center to exist. His raison d'être is to divide. Through division, he conquers. He wants to force the abstract "center" to take sides through fear and propaganda. He has one message: be afraid of The Other.
Most likely, Mr. Trump plans to win in 2020 the same way he did in 2016: by spreading and repeating lies about his opponents over and over, with the help of Russia and the false equivalence "ethos" of our media. Unfortunately, lies work and almost all of our media don't understand how slander affects people's thinking. Even people who know it's not true are affected by it if it is repeated enough. Ask a psychologist.
Whoever the Democrats nominate will get this treatment and intensively. Are the US media prepared to cope with this ethically and intelligently?
3
One wonders whether Mr. Bouie's column is in reality a commentary on conservatives' perennial admonistion to Democratic candidates to move (even further) to the right. In other words, what better way to view both the motivation behind this "helpful" advice and its usefulness, than to present the same ideas from the other perspective.
It's already been reported that Trump is going to try and do by design what happened by accident in 2016--win the electoral college even if he loses the popular vote. It's not impossible, and incumbent presidents do start with a 60% of winning. But going hard to his base and ignoring everyone else is not going to make it easy.
He didn't need "the center" before and he doesn't need them now. The Republicans have done very well kicking the phantom center to the curb since the days of Reagan. They have the Senate, the Supreme Court, the presidency, the majority of State governments and they are flooding the federal judgeships with fringe right nut jobs.
Meanwhile the idiot leadership of the Democratic party have chased after the "center" like a dog chasing it's tail.
2
@David Gagne: Stalemate keeps money flowing to both parties. This is what the Supreme Court wrought with its "Citizens United" ruling.
1
Trump focuses on his base because he’s afraid. To the extent that he formulates policy, his principles are guided by fear-based imperatives for control. This extends to an inability to control himself, of which he may well be properly fearful. He surrounds himself with staff whose abilities over time to interject alternative approaches have been severely degraded. It now seems likely that he’ll increasingly depend on appealing to his base, to effect some measure of assuaging the fear that dogs him - the fear that corrodes his soul.
3
@Don McCrimmon: Trump probably hasn't done anything completely honestly in his life. He is profoundly vulnerable once out of office.
1
I don't believe there are many people in this country who are saying "You know, I didn't vote for him, and I didn't think he would really do a good job, but I have changed my mind. He really seems to be on top of things, and really focused on the tasks at hand, and seems to let criticism roll off his back. I have really come around and will vote for him this time." He is not picking up anyone with his everyone is so unfair to me rhetoric. In fact, I think he has only lost a segment of people who voted for him previously.
4
@Darrin I disagree. I didn't vote for him in 2016, I voted for Clinton. But clearly much of the doom and gloom scenario which was predicted before and right after the election didn't happen.
I might vote for him in 2020 if the Democratic candidate is further to the left of me than Trump is to the right of me. I still don't like him, but might dislike him less than a very progressive Democrat (basically anyone who campaigns on most if not all of: Green New Deal + "free College" + free health care + reparations).
There were also quite a few Republicans who didn't vote for him but might this time around. Combine this with a much better campaign staff and way more money for Trump and I believe the Democrats have a very tough general election battle if they nominate a "true progressive".
7
@Darrin
I voted Johnson/Weld in 2016. I don't like Trump's behavior but at least with the economy he has exceeded my admittedly low expectations. I would be more than willing to vote for a business friendly (low taxes and regulation) social moderate (abortion is safe legal and rare early in pregnancy and increasingly restricted after that) from either party who is willing to both make it easier to come here legally while building physical barriers and making it faster & easier to deny asylum applications for things like spousal abuse and incompetent government, and to deport people who are here illegally. That unicorn doesn't exist and I am beyond disgusted with the Democratic Party's inability to concede the 2016 election. So if the election were tomorrow, I'd hold my nose and vote for Trump
1
Trump and the GOP count on the Electoral College to win presidential races. Trump has proved you can lose the popular vote by 3 million ( which is a staggering amount) and still win based on the insanity of the Electoral College system.
Likewise, the GOP relies on extreme gerrymandering to win and maintain their seats- regardless of the fact that the majority of US voters overall vote Democratic.
They don't need to worry about the center or the majority of voters to maintain their iron grip of power.
Anyone who thinks we live in a democracy is delusional.
We do not.
10
First of all, what is so outrageous about Trump that he has never crossed the approval rating of 50%? But he always retains at least 35% of the eligible voters positive support.
Second, if he can win a 60%+ majority of voters with only 35% of the eligible voters and he can count on those voters to vote, why does he need to risk losing any of them to gain the approval of more than half of all the eligible voters?
Third, why should he worry when the opposition Party cannot find a popular set of proposals and are contending among 24 candidates all trying to gain support from specific narrow issue constituencies to win in the primaries?
2
He has already won the Center. What Bouie is calling the ‘center’ is actually what most of us call the ‘left’. Democrats have become so extreme with their calls for open borders, elimination of ICE, free healthcare for illegal immigrants, voting rights for jailed felons, free tuition, forgiven student loans, and a guaranteed minimum income (even if unwilling to work no less) that Trump appeals to moderate Democrats and everything to the right.
11
@William: I have never seen a more pathetic collection of projectionists than Trump's sycophantic entourage.
3
@William
No, Trump is at 51% about the economy and is in the forties and thirties about everything else. He is not close to winning the Center.
@William
As a lifelong Democrat, I can tell you that no true Democrat would EVER vote for Trump. He may appeal to independents or DINOs, but moderate Dems--no way. I do agree with your general sentiment about the Democratic candidates going too far left though. What are they thinking?
3
Why should Trump change the plan? He won an election he was supposed to lose and keeping to that script means he doesn't have to learn a new one. He's got a ton of money for his fear and loathing express campaign which will begin in earnest this fall. Our democratic system is literally up for election in 2020 and the Democratic party's job is to make sure people understand that. If they do, this menace to our freedoms will be swept into the dustbin of history.
1
Wooing the center is for Democrats. Republicans succeed by adhering to their conservative "principles' but Dems lose when they take that strategy.
1
The key is the "should" Mr. Bouie's last sentence: "If Trump isn’t going to move to the center, then their only choice should be the party that, no matter its nominee, backs each item on that list." As a liberal Democrat, I worry about our tendency to imagine that people vote as they "should", in some rational world, and that we constantly underestimate the rhetorical power and attraction of people we intensely dislike, such as Trump (or Reagan). We don't take into account many things about people: fear that their culture (beliefs, values, language, etc - yes! ethnic whites have a culture, too) is being mocked by the "liberal elites" and threatened by the emphasis on newcomers; the deep beliefs of many that abortion is murder; and on and on. Trump runs on fear and on simplistic messages. Will the Democratic alternative be able to counter that? Those who want Trump to lose need to abandon the illusion that rational data-based policies are the drivers for many people's voting choices.
6
The so-called "heterodox Republicanism" you refer to hasn't been in evidence since Obama was elected president. As awful as Trump is, he is a product of the Republican tea party wing and whatever other witches' brew Republicans have been concocting for years now. As Republicans in congress and throughout the country openly encourage this country's most corrupt and malevolent President, the last thing journalists or anyone else should be doing is overlooking Republicans' complicity in this dark period of US history.
3
If the polls are correct, then why is Fox news the most watched station?
3
It’s the mainly the only source for conservative propaganda. Centrist and liberal news has many varied stations to choose from so that audience is spread over multiple outlets.
3
To suggest that Trump might trim his policies to attract more voters is rational, but you must understand that the harsh policies Trump has pursued reflect his personal approach to the world: conjured in his gut, they are unsuprisingly harsh, irrational and nativist. That a significant part of the electorate resonates to these views gives him that electoral anchor that in 2016 thanks to many other factors such as Clinton's shortcomings as a candidate and ironically the assumption by most Americans--Trump included--that he never would win, which induced complacency among voters, allowed him to sneak through to victory on the backs of fewer than 80K voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Trump won't change. Like the scorpion in the folk tale that destroys himself and the frog carrying him across the river, he is what he is.
1
Trump doesn't need the center given the way elections are now conducted in the United States. Americans have been so convinced that our democracy cannot fail, that they have yet to understand that we have actually already undergone a right-wing coup d'etat, a coup that captured our government through a massive distortion of the electoral process. Voter suppression was combined with systematic gerrymandering and Russian hackers who focused on the key Electoral College states, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania captured by a mere 70,000 votes. Trump was not elected. Theft of the 2016 election was carefully planned by Republicans.
Republicans are a minority party, and we need to understand who their base is in order to understand the GOP ability to get any votes at all in the face of their overt anti-Americanism. There are four kinds of Republicans that support Trump: racists and bigots, the uninformed and low information voters, the hypocritical so-called Evangelists for whom defeating Roe v. Wade overcomes every other Christian value, and the right wing super-rich for whom greed Trumps patriotism. The first three groups are easily manipulated by the right wing propaganda machines Fox and Breitbart or their power hungry religious leaders. The fourth group only looks at short term financial gain - democracy is not part of their equation.
The Republican Party although a minority, has chosen a dangerous course for America. It is the only way they can maintain power.
4
Why isn't Trump trying to win the center?
Answer: Trump doesn't need to because he's counting on the Russians for that ;-)
2
I sure hopeTrump doesn’t read this article!
3
He can't stop being himself long enough. And he can't stop talking. A true genius doesn't need to announce that they are, others would recognize it without being told. But He wants and needs attention. And where other elected officials have relied on knowledgeable advisors to evaluate the pros and cons of any course of action, he thinks he knows everything. Of course, when you surround yourself with incompetent people....
Even with a team of competent advisors, plus a press secretary to polish things up, things still slip thru the cracks. Now take away the advisors, and a press secretary who can't do anything other than look dumb (you listening Sarah?) you have the receipe for a disaster.
Other presidents have also known better than to insert themselves into things that have nothing to do with running the country. The most you used to hear was "congratulations". Or "we're with you in your time of grief". . We've had 4th of July celebrations before. But what other before him has created a ceremony, put themselves in the center of it; reserved seats for their most generous donors then mix up the speech. Gotta keep throwing that red meat to his base
No wonder he's such a disaster. Imagine how much trouble we would be in if he actually had brains and could control himself.
3
Trump is cursed with a "base" that's rabidly anti-progress, anti-immigrant, and racist at the core. Any compromise with the center will alienate the loons on the right - he simply cannot win.
3
Think of it this way: He never expected to be President. He got elected despite himself. He's just an entertainer whose publicity stunt campaign backfired and put him in the White House. Oops. So, why would he change now? It's enough for him to get 4 years in the limelight. So, he generates hatred and fear among his "base" and among everyone else. That's sufficient to keep the performance relevant until 2020. And that's all that matters to him. Is that good for the country? NO! But it doesn't matter to Trump. The show must go on.
4
"In theory," The Donald shouldn't even be occupying the White House. So much for "theories."
4
Your approach rests on the assumption that trump wants to govern, nothing could be further from the truth. Trump wants to rule like a fascist dictator and those within his hard core base are perfectly alright with that so long as he keeps non whites and immigrants at bay. He lies to them, cheats them and abuses them and they come back for more like a battered wife that keeps returning to her abusive husband because he loves her. He has no use for the center that he knows can swing both ways. It would also require a plan and effort on his part but that would interfere with his golf outings. Trump is lazy.
6
He's obviously counting on a very strong support from his base. I suspect voter turnout for this election will be among the highest ever recorded, voter suppression not withstanding....
3
The majority of Americans are against him. We are fired up and the 2018 Midterm Election was a sign of the Blue Wave of 2020!
I'm generally a fan of Mr. Bouie's columns, but he may be missing something here. The unfortunate fact is that polarization and playing to racial and cultural anxieties and resentments works as a political strategy with many white working class voters, particularly in the interior and south of the country. (Nixon's "Silent Majority" rhetoric and Southern strategy are probably past examples of this). And many pro-business voters and donors - many of whom would describe themselves as "moderates" - will end up supporting Trump (as well as Republican Senate and House candidates) because of tax cuts and deregulation, and an economy that works relatively well for them.
6
Trump is relying on the undemocratic Electoral College to bring him a win in 2020. There's a fifty-fifty chance it's a winning strategy.
2
@Seldoc Obviously you have an issue with playing by the rules. The Electoral College was designed to prevent tyranny by democracy and the liberal's Trump Derangement Syndrome has proven them to have been very understanding of human nature.
If we were a democracy then the East and West coasts would control everything and treat flyover country like serfs. Of course you forget that Red counties control your food, oil and water. Let's see who really wins.
5
@Jon Galt
You republicans only care about rules when it benefits you and ignore them with asylum seekers, census, voter suppression and obstruction of justice daily on here.
Aren’t you one of the voices claiming immigrants shouldn’t be counted for representation purposes per the population to spite California? Never mind a senate that also represents the minority. Minority rule by fly over states is still tyranny of the minority that plays into oligarchy.
Mob rule was the concern. It wasn’t that they didn’t want democracy but felt direct democracy had problems and chose a form of representative democracy. Though I’m sure if they saw the imbalances of millions of voices being silenced by the senate minority they would have a problem with our current system and seek a more balanced system of checks and balances.
You also forget that California produces massive amounts of food all year long. It’s the number 1 in food production of all states. Where California leads, that nation always follows.
@Jon Galt: The Electoral College is possibly the most blatant atrocity left over from the birth of the US in liberty to enslave.
2
Trump only cares about Trump. The less you resemble Trump, the less he cares about you. It is not that complicated.
7
Trump is banking on the chance that the Democrats will nominate another candidate like Hillary Clinton who will be unpopular with her base and electrifying to his. Trump is hoping he can fulfill his mission to create an unassailable hold on the gov't by right wing plutocrats. This will be done by the seemingly relentlessly angry white people who managed to get a razor thin win in the electoral college. I don't think Trump cares whether he wins a majority of voters. He still gets all the powers of the presidency winning the electoral college regardless of the popular vote count.
1
"...as of April, 52 percent of registered voters said they “definitely” wouldn’t vote for him in 2020..."
And from the same article, 54% of voters definitely didn't vote for him in 2016. Yet there he glowers from the Oval Office.
We're in big trouble if we keep playing identity politics. Dems need to focus on American wallets and stop rolling the dice with enormous changes. White House first, ideal world second.
7
It's quite simple. Trump would like to win the election. That's why he doesn't care about the center.
2
I find it fascinating how people belittle the Democrats for wanting to provide "free" healthcare and a decent living wage seeing it as giveaways or Socialism. Yet none of them have any issue with the Right giving away the financial security of our country to their cronies, Wall street and the wealthy. Corporate Socialism and all that...
13
@Martin B
Republicans are socialists for the rich.
There’s nothing he can to win the center. Where is the center? He campaigned to his crowd. His crowd showed up (we didn’t) and elected him. If we get sloppy and apathetic and petty again in 20, he’ll win again. He doesn’t need the center. He can win with what he’s got...if we let him!
3
Can a progressive ideologue even understand the center? I don't think ideologues are capable of venturing that far afield.
12
@AACNY
Can a republican ideologue even understand the center? I don’t think ideologues are capable of venturing that far afield.
1
If Trump doesn't try to move to the center and offer the kinds of proposals referenced by Mr. Bouie in his column, it will be one of the great acts of political self-destruction we have seen. As for other options for expanding his base, he can't start a war to rally broader support because his isolationist base would not support it. The only other option is to unleash the largest political slime machine we have ever seen upon the Democratic nominee, replete with endless "deepfake" videos and other assaults upon the truth. Well, there you have it. Prepare to be slimed America.
2
Why doesn't Trump attempt to wind over voters in the center? The answer is simple: he doesn't need to.
Trump's base is big enough and secure enough that there is no need to risk any of that base to win over voters in the center, whoever they are.
4
Mr. Bouie,
Unless it's a policy change Sean Hannity et al. advocates or supports, it ain't happening.
4
Trump is trying to win the center by pointing towards an economy with record-low unemployment numbers and rising wages. More than 70% of poll respondents in a CNN poll agree with him that the economy is in good shape.
This contradicts claims by Democratic candidates that the economy is only working for a select few (or billionaires and oligarchs as NYT opinion writers like to claim).
I don't approve of Trump and voted for Clinton in 2016.
I might vote for Trump in 2020 if the Democratic candidate campaigns on:
- more regulation.
- massive hand-outs for "students" who voluntarily went into debt to study fields of questionable usefulness.
- free everything (health care, college, you name it).
- identity politics.
- a "Green New Deal" which ignores cost-benefit analysis.
The median voters in the US, it seems to me, are quite a bit to the right of where Mr. Bouie thinks they are. So I disagree with the author. Trump is trying to win the center, most Democrats are trying very actively to lose it because they have to win the primary first.
19
Thanks to Mitch McConnell and the Supreme Court, getting the most votes no longer matters. In fact, for the GOP, it hasn't since 1992.
9
Mr Bouie is more right than wrong.
Taking his advice to its logical conclusion, the democrats must capture the moderate middle of this country's electorate to win in 2020. Right now, they have the momentum and the far better credibility with the moderates than the republicans.
Ignore "the squad." The further they press their social engineering agendas, the more they motivate the republicans and agitate the moderates.
Why?
A twist on the old Willie Sutton answer to the question of why he robbed banks. His answer, of course, was "because that's where the money is."
The middle of the electorate, including moderates of both parties, is where the decisive votes are.
2
He can't change his tune because singing it brings in all the money. He has to continue the fear-mongering grift to keep the money flowing in--now and after his presidency, especially if handcuffs are waiting for him. Legit businesses won't partner with the Trump organization anymore. He's radioactive to them. Pandering to extremists, those who can be manipulated into parting with their money for his false promises, is all he has left.
3
President of the United States on Twitter today.......
"I have been very critical about the way the U.K. and Prime Minister Theresa May handled Brexit. What a mess she and her representatives have created. I told her how it should be done, but she decided to go another way. I do not know the Ambassador, but he is not liked or well....
....thought of within the U.S. We will no longer deal with him. The good news for the wonderful United Kingdom is that they will soon have a new Prime Minister. While I thoroughly enjoyed the magnificent State Visit last month, it was the Queen who I was most impressed with!"
If after 2.5 years, you still support him, what can possibly change that?
According to the polls he enjoys 40% support from the voters at large and close to 90% of GOP voters.
Perhaps it's time for us to admit that the problem is not with Trump, but with the voters we have "raised" over the last 60 years?
8
Why aren't the progressive trying to win the center?
18
Because they’re progressives.
8
@JoeG
Why are they all lurching so far left leaving a majority of Americans behind? Real question. Is there a secret progressive primary or do they think Trump will win and are positioning themselves and their bona fides for the future.
7
@JoeG
Tell us what the center is. Can you name a centrist policy?
This is well reasoned and silly. The myth of the center is as pervasive as the myth of the independent undecided voter, fueled by the need of pundits to pund. If Trump panders to the center he loses some of his base. He may even lose more than he gains. Also he is not comfortable in the center. He loves being divisive, racist, and obnoxious. These are his strengths. He won with them last time. The popular vote was skewed by three million fake voters as far as he is concerned. He will have learned nothing and will change nothing.
Let's not have any more of these pointless fantasy centroid ruminations on the Op-ed pages (yea sure -- like that would happen, right Brooks, Friedman?).
5
This piece presumes that the election is President Trump's to lose if he does not appeal to moderate voters, but it overlooks the inconvenient reality that he is the incumbent with a strong economy and a large Democratic field. The upcoming election is the Democratic Party's election to win, and the voters that Bouie believes could be picked up by Trump are the voters that are unhappy with the Democratic Party's more extreme trajectory. If moderate voters prove to be the important votes, the Democrat candidates should take care not to leave moderate voters behind in the rush to stand out as the most progressive in the field.
5
I don’t think any candidate tries to win the center. Since most voters are probably moderate, this makes no sense to me.
4
@Nancy G.
Comes down to who shows up. Evangelicals, for example, are very mature and smart about elections. First, they vote reliably. Second, no litmus tests or ideology fealty swearing for them. They support the candidate who delivers.
Progressives, on the other hand, need to hear validation of what they believe to vote.
3
@AACNY
Anti-abortion isn’t isn’t a litmus test for evangelicals?
What's missing here is that basically none of the politicians in Trump's PARTY will move to the center either, no matter what centrist policies might be supported by the majority of Americans.
They keep banking on the fact that their voters won't desert them (or that enough of them won't desert them), if Trump keeps attacking the "socialist Democrats", and that allows them to bide their time.
To what end? My best guess is that their ultimate goal is to get so many ultra conservatives in the courts that they will be able to use the judiciary to invalidate whatever more liberal policies that future Congresses and presidents can pass, since they know that even their own voters may start peeling off in the next few elections.
So, they're creating an oligarchy piece by piece, and by the time enough voters have woken up to this reality, it'll be too late.
Of course, all their supporters will respond that they are only trying to "save the Republic from socialism", or from "open borders", or that if they ever compromise with the Dems, it will be the end of their party as we know it. And maybe it would be, if they are completely unable to evolve.
But look for at least 1 1/2 years of absolutely no compromising coming up. Then if a Dem wins the White House, we'll see if s/he gets the same uncompromising treatment they gave Obama. My guess is s/he would get the same treatment.
3
Another article based on wishful thinking. Trump may be every negative thing that has ever been written about him, but his base supporters, oh, his base supporters. He can Literally say or do anything he wants and he has at least 46% of the vote just for openers. Meanwhile, to Conservative America, the Dems proposals for universal healthcare, tuition free education and an undefined, as of yet, comprehensive immigration plan is being interpreted as give aways to minorities and immigrants.
What the Dems really need for whomever they choose as a candidate is a real marketing scheme that can change the perception among Americans of who they are actually trying to help. It's still a long way off and anything can happen, but calling Trump names over and over again may relieve stress but won't get him defeated in 2020. The Dems need a Major Public Relations strategy to change the tide. That's the least they should have learned from the republicans.
5
OK, let's assume you are right and Trump won't win because he has pushed too far to the authoritarian right. But you haven't faced the more important question: What about the Senate? Unless Democrats start working hard on a plan to win the Senate, then the best we can do is return to the Obama-McConnell stalemate where the Republican-controlled Senate simply blocks everything a Democratic president proposes.
Ejecting Trump just isn't enough. Any real effort to defeat Trumpism must include Democrats re-taking the Senate, too.
10
Maybe he doesn't really want a second term. He got to appoint 2 Supreme Court Justices, roll out a Tax Cut favoring his ilk, sank TPP, is seriously blunting Obama initiatives....
As long as he isn't seriously threatened with prosecution for anything once he steps down - why not just go back to his old life? Maybe hand it over to another younger Republican to try to patch up the GOP?
2
The center is dead to him. Like all narcissists Trump hates those who dislike and criticize him. He would never beg for votes from anyone who he felt did not offer him unquestioning adulation and loyalty. He would be better off as a king or emperor than a politician. Thank God we can count on his inability to expand his shrunken base to cause him to lose 2020 badly.
3
Fair question. But why aren't most of the leading candidates for the Democratic nomination trying to win the center either?
10
What does one mean by center?
Medicare for all, universal free public education from pre-k through college, no Citizen’s United, higher taxes for the 1 Percent, gender pay equality, right to your own body. Are these center’s demands? If they are not that center is not really a rational entity which makes us a nation where the average does not know what is good for itself?
Do you think that is what we became?
7
Every time a Democratic candidate comes up with a new far left policy proposal, it makes Trump look more like a sensible centrist in comparison.
19
@David
Consider how they looked on July 4th. While Trump was grandly celebrating the military, they were whining and belittling the event. They just keep making him look good.
11
Although Hillary won the popular vote, it just reaffirms to me how much she was disliked in many key states. I often wonder if her true mistake was not picking a popular VP candidate from the midwest. It might have swung the election in her favor given the narrow margin of victory Trump had over her in those states.
Mitt Romney knew it was a potential vulnerability for the Democrats in 2012 and select Paul Ryan (WI) as his running mate. Although Romney lost, in part because of President Obama's strong favorable ratings, many Republicans were able to beat Democrats in those key states in 2012.
I see Trump having the same problem today as Hillary did in 2016. High negatives and taking for granted those states are going to turn out for him in 2020 (just as Hillary assumed in 2016 that the same states would go out and vote for her because they went Democratic in 2012). Although VP Pence is from the Midwest, he is not as moderate nor as popular as someone like Paul Ryan. Trump needs to kick start the midwest again in order to have a chance. Democrats biggest weakness is complacency in 2020. They will lose if they stay home. There are simply more Democrat voters than Republicans in WI, MI, and PA.
1
It's one thing for a Party and presidential candidate to advocate for a specific cause, such as an expanded role for Medicare. It's another thing altogether to turn the lofty idealistic vision into the formalized law and policy. This is especially true in the era when Mitch McConnell has moved the Senate about as far to the right as Trump is himself in policy practice. I think we would be better served with four more years of Trump and a solid majority Democratically controlled House and Senate, than a Democratic president who suffers as Obama did, against the immovable object of a tight-fisted Republican Senate. We don't have John McCain's pragmatism any more to keep a modicum of decency.
2
Great writing and valuable suggestions, Sir. Several would work well for Democrats. It’s all unnecessary, because the great, mighty, stable genius is about to be undone, finally. Not by Mueller, not by his own incompetence, not by his incredibly inept Cabinet of revolving Fools. No, by “ friendship “. His relationship with a certain very wealthy “ accused “ pedophile and rapist.
To avoid a life sentence at some non-Fabulous Federal facility, Epstein will tell everything he knows. About everyone. With names, locations, dates, possibly even photos.
Guaranteed. Note the date. I’m dead serious.
8
@Phyliss Dalmatian: Or Mr. Epstein could pull a Manafort and keep his mouth shut. But Manafort was/is scared of Putin, even in prison. Don't think Epstein is and can't see that guy spending the next 50 years in prison (as he should for what he has done). But, yes, I was wicked happy hearing that news yesterday, one because the girls may find justice and two, it might get rid of Trump. Am keeping my fingers crossed!
3
Election integrity will be the decisive factor in 2020. TRump will say the election is rigged, throughout the campaign - and beat it like a dead horse - probably challenge the results - unless he wins. There are no paper trails in some important states (PA) and a history of felony election rigging in others (OH). Without a serious effort to intervene and prevent such things (not to mention the ongoing Russan interference and that of others per TRump's invitation to one and all) there could be a lot of recounts. Oh, and don't forget voter suppression. Huge looming challenges and hardly a peep regarding what is planned to address these issues.
Why doesn't Mr. Bouie ask this question about the only states that matter, MI, PA, OH, and WI?
Yes, he would fail to win the nation -- that is, the popular vote.
But surely Mr. Bouie knows that the popular vote does not matter. How will this play out on the only states that do?
(Kinda irresponsible imho.)
7
Trump does not want a second term; thus, his behavior.
Trump is a narcissist and egomaniac who only governs for people loyal to him. He figures, "if they don't like me I will take my business elsewhere."
His base is fired up by his hatred of Obama, elites, and coastals. They've got "their" guy in power, and are loving it. He has no need, no desire, to increase his votes by broadening his voter base because he only cares about his image, which is validated only by his base. The others can take a walk. He is counting on the corporate, evangelical and cultural voters to get over the top, with the stock market, anti-abortion, and anti-political correctness issues making him more appealing than the Democratic nominee.
1
Trump is not going to win over anyone with 2 brain cells that are communicating with each other.
So, he is not trying.
If the Democrats don't get their act together and focus on things of value to most Americans then Trump does not have to worry about anybody but his base.
11
@Frank
And the same old lie from 2016 is recycled. Which plays into the hands of right-wingers who want Americans to think Democrats don't care about them. Some of them are commenting here.
Democrats have been laser-focused in 2018 and 2019 on things of value to most Americans. Top of the list, healthcare. The list goes on: affordable college, living wages, a habitable planet. We saw how that turned out in 2018. The same will happen in 2020. Unless we (Democrats, that is) refuse to let the wingers write our narrative.
1
@childofsol
Correction: Unless we (Democrats, that is) continue to let the wingers write our narrative.
I enjoy your columns Jamelle, and usually agree with them, but in this instance you're either wildly optimistic, or very naive, about what Republican voters will do. In short, they will vote Red, no matter what. Yes, they might loathe Trump, and cringe at his unfitness for the office (or ANY office!), and they might well deny that they voted for him, but they will vote for him again rather than vote for any Democrat.
Welcome to the Tribal States of America!
And this is why the Democrats should forget about appealing to the so-called "moderate" voters, or even more rare, the "undecideds". Almost every voter has long ago decided how they will vote, Red or Blue. long ago. T
he Dems do have one challenge that the Republicans don't have: in the past they've been comprised of blocs, and aren't nearly as unified as the Republicans, and so some have actually not voted or voted for a third party if the nominee wasn't "perfect" for them. That had better not be an option this time around or they will quickly learn the meaning of the saying "The perfect is the enemy of the good".
2
He's convinced Putin and his thugs are going to come through for him one more time. The war is already joined ala fake websites and divisive material on social media directed by Russians ensconced in a St. Petersburg's neighborhood.
1
Why isn't Trump trying to win the center? Two reasons:
1. Trump isn't a politician. In his own mind he's an idol or cult leader.
2. The Democrats have already conceded the center to him.
8
Nine of trumps actions or proposals are anything but ultra right wing. dems a solid center, nothing more. The fact you think they are some how left and trump is Center’s proves you are also ultra right wing.
2
Trump's power is ultimately based in fear of rapid social change, of which the evil underside is white supremacy. To win the middle, Democrats must normalize and validate the anxieties many non-radical Americans have regarding global financialization and illegal immigration, both of which contribute to reasonable insecurity among voters. They must respectfully propose credible solutions to help people feel more secure about their future well being, and so tease away this fuel from the fire of the would-be Nazis. Ongoing politically correct grievance diatribes will only continue to lose elections.
2
'Moderates' are pretty much for the status quo. They like what they've got and they want to hang on to it. That's been the Democratic Party ever since Reagan, and the subsequent betrayal of much of the New Deal by the likes of the Clintons. And that is precisely why Trump is where he is today. And why the Democratic Party must nominate Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. Had they nominated the latter Trump wouldn't be in the White House.
And we wouldn't be in the mess we're in, although the GOP leadership seem delighted with that very mess.
Our nation is at a Crossroads. The moderates must decide whether they're to be sunshine patriots, good Germans and vote GOP or vote Democratic. The first would be a clear disaster both at home and globally. If they vote for Biden or a lookalike it is just kicking the can down a short road to disaster. The Democratic Party must offer a reformer to be successful in the long run.
2
There is no approach to the center for Trump.
Never has been, never will be.
Always looking for extreme positions, where he is most comfortable.
2
This column is misguided. The GOP support Trump by more than 70%, from polls. So he needs these voters, who do not want to pay taxes, who want their Social Security and Medicare, but do not want any of the younger workers to get any of this. It is that simple.
4
Is there much of a "center' anymore?
1
" Thirty-five percent of Americans identify as “moderate,” and they might be receptive to a Trump who promised to pursue consensus and pragmatism instead of division and far-right ideological crusades."
Only a moron would believe Trump promises. How often does Trump have to lie, cheat, and betray the trust of others before people will stop believing what he says? The only thing consistent about Trump, which has been confirmed over and over again for decades throughout his public life, is that he cannpot be trusted.
4
@arusso
It's actually quite ignorant to claim that Trump hasn't delivered. Tax cuts for over 80% of middle Americans. Strong support for small businesses with a 20% QBID and loosening of the regulatory yoke that's been strangling them. And landmark prison reform, to name just a few.
People can see with their own two eyes that Trump has been strong on the economy and trade. All while his critics fight over the veracity of his tweets and fact check his jokes, claiming this proves he's a "liar."
6
That's a good one, I don't really expect many humor articles in the op-ed section.
I suppose the root of the irony is that Bouie has been surrounded with far left progressives for so long that he forgot that they are the anomaly, not the norm.
The evidence of exactly how far out of touch he rally is, is here:
"A majority of the American electorate — liberals, moderates and even some conservatives — want a greater government role in health care, a higher minimum wage, higher taxes on the rich and less punitive border policies."
Only a fool or an ideologue can believe that.
Trump has had the center since 2016, and retains it.
He pulled people in from the moderate left in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and elsewhere.
They have finally thrown in the towel on the now radlically left wing Democrats and they aren't coming back.
So pardon me if I laugh very hard when I hear that Trump's failure to sway leftist ideologues is blamed on him, and not them.
9
@Objectivist
Thought the same thing. A progressive ideologue taking a shot at defining the "middle" and failing miserably.
7
Trump doesn't need the center. He didn't need it in 2016; he won't need it in 2020. How he managed to squeak his victory in the electoral college is still a puzzle to me. Perhaps Mr. Putin had a lot to do with it. Perhaps we will never know.
3
This all assumes that we will have a free and fair election in 2020 and that Donald Trump and his base — including his supporters in the House, the Senate, and the Court — will honor the outcome of that election.
I fervently hope these assumptions are correct. But hope ain’t much to go on. If Trump isn’t planning to respect the will of all the people, he probably sees no need to broaden his support.
3
Well since many voters "feel" that their economic basket is equal to better than 4 years ago, he'll win again. Folks may not like it but its so. No pivot to center needed. But "this time it's different!" Nope. And low voter turnout magnifies it all. Now should the economy "feel" like it has cratered...
Read Democracy for Realists. I certainly benefited. And then I better understood how real change happens. But I had to get over letting go how change doesn't happen too. Sigh.
3
Dear Jamelle,
I’m a little confused by this opinion piece. By wondering why Trump isn’t trying to win the center, it’s as if you’re hoping(?) or implying that this man can be redeemed. Or that he is still capable of caring about something greater than himself.
I don’t care how well the economy is doing, nor might I “be receptive to a Trump who promised to pursue consensus and pragmatism instead of division and far-right ideological crusades.”
I’m sorry, but I’ve seen his true colors. Spray painting him with a different hue isn’t going to change the original color beneath it. In my eyes, Trump has squandered his chances to act like a responsible leader many of us can respect.
3
The latest polls show that 44% of Americans approve of the job Trump has done--an all-time high.
Why? They say "the economy is good"--
jobs are up,inflation is down, the stock market is up which means that their 401ks are doing well.
They don't approve of the President personally. 70% say he often acts unpresidential.
But that doesn't matter.
Mainstreatm Americas vote their pocketbook, not issues.
8
Trump doesn't cater to the center because he doesn't need to. They're politically dead. They see one extreme in the far right GOP and another in the far left Dems. They don't identify with either, so they will not bother to vote.
4
Why? You ask?
It’s entirely clear he does not need to worry about winning.
It’s likely he has already signed off on the electoral map strategy. If you asked him nicely right now he might tell you which states he “miraculously” “won” in the 2020 “election”.
Come on, people.
1
Perhaps because Democrats are in the process of abdicating it.
9
@Frunobulax
At this point, the Democratic Party is actively chasing them out with accusations of too little fealty to progressive ideology and identity infractions.
3
I am a moderate Republican. Other than his immigration policies which I support, there is not much for me in Trump's World.
He cut taxes for business, and that's what's driving this economy.
What's going to happen when we have to pay for all this debt since taxes were cut?
If the Democrats were to put a moderate from a Red State to headline the 2020 ticket, he/she would get my vote.
As it is now, though, the Democrats are so far from the Center that they will lose this election again.
I do not understand why Clinton accentuated liberal immigration policies in the last election? She was ahead in the polls. Her numbers consequently fell as she was talking more and more about immigration.
Great article by Brooks: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/27/opinion/democratic-debate-2020.html
5
The Trump supporter said it best when she said ‘He’s not hurting the people he needs to be hurting’
Only Trump is willing to hurt others. Others could be hurt as a consequence of a Democrat President's election, but a large number of Americans don't just want to gain some advantage that they believe Trump will offer them but they want to see others hurt. They want pain and suffering. And only Trump will deliver hurt on others. That's why he gets their vote. That's his advantage.
3
The one area where Dems are tripping over their two feet is immigration. Trump is going all in on immigration and frankly it's not a bad bet. I listen to too many people here in blue Jersey speak about this and they're not happy with the Dem plan(s) of basically taking no action on immigration.
The Dems have to understand - this is a labor market issue, and so long as we have tens of millions in the labor force bringing down wages and causing rents to rise there's going to be lots of folks voting for Trump because he is perceived to be the one trying to change this.
Why give Trump this issue? This issue wins zero votes for Dems and gives millions of votes to Trump. Immigrants here illegally do not vote, and most immigrants here legally are green card holders or some other type visa holders, and they don't vote. So why pander to pro-immigration? It's a guaranteed vote loser.
The Dem candidate should say this: I will enforce the law, which includes immigration laws and labor laws as president. I will not allow anarchy or the flouting of laws to continue. Period. Then the Dem wins because every other issue Trump loses and Dems win in a landslide.
19
trump?? you mean the Dems, no?
5
The center won’t hold.
I am one of those 35% Moderates who won't vote for Trump but I don't find too many of the Democratic candidates appealing either.
6
@Peggysmomi
The perfect solution is for you (and the moderates like you) to just to stay home on election day. That way if The Donald wins you can always say honestly that you did not vote for him.
We don't often have perfect candidates but someone is going to win. I think that any democrat is better than The Donald and I am definitely voting democratic on election day.
Best wishes.
2
@AubreyI never said I was not voting for a Democrat only that I did not find too many of them appealing. You are reading between the lines.
3
Maybe it's time to try to think beyond yourself and what appeals to you and instead start to think about what will be best for the country. And any Democratic candidate would be better for this nation than the venality, corruption, racism, misogyny, nepotism, vulgarity, chaos and ineptitude of Donald Trump, his administration, Mitch McConnell and the rest of the GOP. Because if people like you sit this one out, there may not be another opportunity to undo the damage already done by Trump, the GOP and the MAGAts.
The obvious assumption about politics is that a candidate wants to win by getting over half of the votes and that a candidate does that by appealing to enough people through program and policy proposals to get over 50%. Than is the good government (civic book) model of politics.
The Donald did not follow the good government model in 2016 and he won't in 2020. What The Donald did in 2016 was to energize and play to his base to be sure that they will turnout on election day; while at the same time intimidating and belittling the opposition.
The trump faithful (about 45%) went to the polls while many democrats were undecided about supporting Ms. Clinton. I saw many reports that democrats (in particular African Americans and women) had decided that they could see no difference between The Donald and Ms. Clinton. It helped that Ms. Clinton had been under continuous assault and investigation for about the last twenty years and the Fox, Rush, Colter, Hannity propaganda machine had been running 24/7 for months. All this intimidates some voters and some of them decide to stay home.
That is why the republicans are working feverishly to make it hard or difficult for many potentially democratic voters to vote. The republicans don't need to win a majority of voters if a lot of the democrats don't vote.
And The Donald managed to get victories in placed like Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc. where it counted in the electoral college.
3
I want to headdesk every time I read a column wondering why a Republican won’t act more moderate or govern toward the center. I want to yell out, haven’t you been paying attention the past ten years? Haven’t you been reading my comments?:) The GOP is no longer a normal or conventional political party. It’s a radical faction hostile to the rule of law and bent on destroying democratic norms and traditions. Period. Full stop. It would be like asking a lion to act like a zebra. It can’t. And it won’t. Because it’s a faction, the Republican Party isn’t governed by nor does it respond to normal political signals, like election outcomes or polls, that would moderate its stances on issues. In fact, it acts counter to the will of the people. Because its agenda is unpopular, the GOP must distract its supporters by demonizing immigrants and embracing conspiracies. Fear is its agenda. That’s why the caravans and socialism will be rallying cries for Trump in 2020, and like in 2018 Democrats will sweep to victory.
5
On board with @AllNewman.
I think that the individuals are self-aware that their party's rudder is victory alone.
Take the stolen Garland nomination. Republicans will argue that McConnell defended our Constitution, until they see that evidence. Then, they will argue that it takes their village to raise a good, strong, healthy child. News of the next generation being funnelled into a democracy bought by super donors and shaped for corporations is written-off as "fake". That evidence will not be examined. At that point, the individual is set in stone: self-aware of faction, "Fine with it, don't bother me".
Donald Trump does not have to win more votes than he had in 2016. He merely needs to suppress a sufficient number of non-Trump voters. This may be accomplished by manipulating voting access, discouraging registration, corrupting registration files, or even direct intervention into the recording and counting of votes. This is why he has made no effort Harden voter records and action against external hacking. On the contrary he has invited intervention because he is counting on it to suppress opposition. And this does not have to be in play across the country, just in selected districts and states to secure the election. Trying to win 6-9 million additional votes will be hard work and inevitably subject to last-minute swings in voter sentiment; he no longer can call on James Comey. Far easier to have the Russians corrupt Democratic voter records so they are barred from voting. Why worry about heavy opposition turnout when polling places are few and difficult to reach, voting machines flip votes without a trace, and it is all but impossible to obtain the necessary documentation in a timely manner? Jamelle Boule is so mid-20th century in thinking one needs to win votes. Bush in 2000 and Trump in 2016 demonstrated majorities are not necessary, just assure that only the right people vote in key states to win the Electoral College. Indeed from here on it seems likely the winner of the Presidency will not win the popular vote, just the Electoral College. Voter suppression is key.
2
Even if trump moves to the middle, even if he pulls the rug out from under McConnell and becomes besties with Speaker Pelosi and the democratic caucus, even if he proposes plans that help instead of hurt Americans, he has proven to be unfit, both morally and mentally for the job we hired him to do. His penchant for tyrants and murderers makes him uniquely un-American.
There can be no return nor reward for his 11,000 lies, his cruelty, his graft.
He can offer to reverse everyone of his policies and I'd still vote for a door knob if it was the only opponent left in the race.
You cannot trust liars.
3
Mr Bouie's line of inquiry is valid. Trump's numbers are soft, where is the adult response?
Before election, replace ACA attack with some fixes?
-- Mitch said "no".
Move federal minimum wage, once, in UP direction?
-- US Chamber of Commerce said "no".
Treat everyone in ICE's custody better?
-- Ann Coulter said "no".
And he likes Rush Limbaugh and Mike Huckabee.
And he listens to Sean Hannity and Friends.
So does Trump's base.
No adults. Same baby formula.
1
Mr. Bouie is asking what Mr. Trump is going to do to extend his base further into the center, by which I think he means to the left. Mr. Trump, I think correctly, knows he doesn't have to do that--the center will come to him. Why? Because the Dems keep showing (notably in the recent debates) that they want to move further left. They're doing Mr. Trump's work for him--by abandoning the center they're driving them right. Mr. Bouie and friends probably can't see how alarming their social spending priorities look to people who have worked and saved to take care of themselves; who already think their taxes are too high; that they already pay too much to carry the unproductive, un-self-responsible. The Democrats are now so far to the left that they're starting to scare people--I'm not sure you win elections doing that.
10
Why isn't Trump trying to win independents, you ask?
Because he trusts that Putin will help him, just like he did in 2016. That is the real answer.
1
He doesn't have to cater them, centrists rather trudge through another four years of Trump rather than put up with destructive and insufferable radical leftists. Why would he pander to centrists when the left is chasing centrists from the democratic party?
12
Why? Because there are more conservatives than liberals in this country.
4
It's simple. Trump knows what Putin has in store for our electoral process in 2020 and trusts his friend.
1
Lets sum up and put this simply, even trump knows that he is viewed as a horror by the majority of Americans, and by the way, all the democratic countries in the world.
His statement, often quoted says it all " I love the lowly educated ".
He knows that it would be a complete waste of time going after anyone that is making intelligent decisions and not driven by primitive emotion.
1
@Phil
The 2016 election showed which side is driven by primitive emotion. There are plenty of Leftist meltdowns that made it to the internet in the days following Trump's election. No such thing happened in either 2012 or 2008.
If Mr. Bouie is relying on the same pollsters who had Hillary winning...
Good luck with that.
3
Current polls show that Trump's strategy si working. He's around 45%. He just has to pray the economy keeps doing well (though not really for everyone). There's enough of the blue-collar white voters in those three or four midwest states that might like his bluster and 'toughness' and support him again. Also he got so much free advertisements on cable news. That's a big advantage to a fractured Democrat message. The Dems need to get together and blast Trump for his false populism on Health Care and Tax Cuts, not to to mention his idiotic denial of science. More and more Americans finally believe in Climate Change! Well, what will they do about it?!
Why do we still delude ourselves that Trump somehow “doesn’t know what he’s doing”?...Trump may be a lousy President but he has proved himself a master campaign tactician...
7
Actually he is trying. His 4th of July show and the upcoming environment speech are attempts to appeal to moderates. They may seem surreal attempts to many of us but they are actions taken by the Trump campaign because of recent polls results they claim either do not exist or do not worry them.
3
Sadly, Trump knows exactly what he is doing here. His catering to the base has given him an iron grip on Republicans in Congress and at the state level. Cross him and you are primaried and out. This gets him his nominees and above all his judges, without whom the far more radical agenda of his supporters cannot be enacted. Step one in radically transforming America is staffing the federal bench with ideologues and hacks. And what Trump also understands is how short the memory of the electorate is. If he wants to pivot, just the last month before the election will do it for him. Beating him will require Democrats to be safe and inspiring simultaneously. May the force be with us.
3
Trump can win without the "...Center..." because so many of the small population States are Red. When combined with the large Red States- Texas and a few others, Trump starts out with a very strong base in the Electoral College.
We Blues cannot win without the Center and we go Left not just at our political peril,. but at the nation's peril.
5
Trump doesn’t have to do much more then show a few commercials of the Democratic hopefuls raising their hands when asked if they support taking away people’s private healthcare, giving healthcare to people here illegally and decriminalizing illegal border crossings.
He will easily win as the vast majority of Americans do not want this.
In the days when video lasts forever this question by the moderators was the gift that Republicans were waiting for.
15
Trump didn't need the center to win in 2016. If Trump holds his base and if a majority of his white voters vote for his racism as they did in 2016, the Electoral College will give him another victory. The younger voters are apparently hopeless as they don't seem to be able to understand why voting matters; most of the younger voters didn't care enough to vote in 2016.
Young people rarely vote in large numbers. Yet the Left is betting the future of our democracy as we know it to inspire these kids so we can push an aggressive progressive agenda that has never been tried before anywhere.
To me, a far easier strategy is a steady platform with a dose of adult maturity.
Unfortunately, the progressives seem to think votes will magically show up and chose to ignore the demographics of people who actually vote in these battlegrounds
3
I have a more interesting question: why aren't the Democrats trying to win the center?
18
@Ken Bingo!
4
What if Trump puts his daughter on the 2020 ticket as Vice President. Not only will Trump keep his loyal base he might pick up all those female voters he missed the first time around. With the silent majority, great economy, flawed polling and pathetic Liberal Ideas he has a better than average shot of winning. If this scenario unfolds as suggested it would not surprise me to watch him resign late into his second term allowing his daughter to become the first female POTUS. Only if the Dems paid more attention to messaging then they did to all the noise like the Mueller report, Kavanaugh hearings, etc etc they would be in a much better position. As it turns out all the wining, crying and posturing just bolstered the presidents approval rating. Way to go!!
1
@RS
Sorry but putting Ivanka on the ticket is not going to bring back all of those female voters who do not support him. Nothing will change the way we feel about him and his “grab ‘em by the ....” mentality. A liar, a bully and a cheat should not be president, no matter who he decides to add to his ticket.
Trump is not very smart. He thinks he is in the center and in the majority. He believes everyone who does not agree with him and his supporters are extremists.and in the minorities.
Why should Trump reach out to the center? No one else is (that means you, Democrats), so he just doesn't have to bother. These days, if you're not right-wing crazy or left-wing crazy, no one running for President wants to talk to you or wants your vote ... except maybe Joe Biden, and he's too busy apologizing to the left to reach out to the center.
6
I'm pretty sure he knows he can't win over "centrists." They're people who believe not standing up for anything is the moral choice--can't spoil that delusion by voting for a fascist. Either side of the fence is just too extreme for them. They want same old, same old.
BOTH Trump and the Democrats should be trying to win the center; this polarity is tearing our country apart.
5
It is possible that Trump fears that any compromise with centrist positions might alienate elements of his base — and would certainly result in shrieks from the Fox opinion machine. In sum: He's unlikely to do it.
We won't know how the middle of America or any part of America thinks until 2020. People are unwilling to tell the pollsters the they support Trump. I strongly believe Trump will win big if Joe Biden is nominated.
1
So what the author is saying is 35% of American Moderates are gullible rubes?
Fool me once shame on you...
Sadly, he can keep doing what he's doing. The people who voted for him, for the most part, will vote for him again. He is exactly what they wanted, and all our efforts to change their minds are not going to work. As long as the economy is perceived as strong and as long as he doesn't get us into a war, nothing is going to change. And all the while, the Democratic nominee is going to struggle to get out the vote because that is always the way, and maybe because the media will make it seem like the votes are wasted anyway.
Trump's strategy is quite simple: maximum pressure first, then negotiate in his territory to get the best deal for him.
Maximum pressure on democrats with extreme right-wing policies will make democrats go to the left side further and further. Then, someone like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders can become its candidate or make moderates like Joe Biden compromise with extreme progressives to earn the candidacy.
Then, he will make him look like more moderate at that final stage contrasting the far-left progressive democratic candidate. Don't be fooled by his deceptive skills. He has been a genius real estate developer who can 'cast spell' like a magician to earn lots and money. Now he is showing genius in politics by manipulating all kinds of people including opponents here and abroad.
1
Why Isn’t Trump Trying to Win the Center?
Because anything he would do to win the center would alienate his base - even if it would benefit them as well.
And we shouldn't forget that regardless of his lack of popularity or number who would not vote for him the Republicans are doing everything that they can to be sure that the only votes that count are votes for Republicans where a million to one and one wins.
1
In Trump's worldview, "The Center" mens White Supremacist Nazis
1
This column could just as well be about the majority of Democratic candidates.
They are in a bubble and they are only listening to the base of left wing Dems.
It's been proved several times in recent years that the Dems cannot win the Presidency by just winning the Blue States. Yet most of the candidates don't seem to have learned this lesson.
6
Among "unlikely" DT voters, a common refrain is: "I don't like him, but I like his policies." (Translation: "my stock portfolio is doing well.") Let's hope for a major market correction -- our survival as a nation and a planet may depend on it.
2
The last thing that Trump cares about is being in the middle.
He wants to be in the lead and he doesn't care what rules or laws he has to break in order to be there.
The last thing we need is for Trump to get back in there for 2020.
Because smiling and smirking Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin don't want Donald Trump to waste his time trying to appeal to the political center.
Because Fox News aka Trump Ministry of Propaganda and Sean Hannity aka Trump Minister of Propaganda don't want Donald Trump to waste his time on appealing to the political center.
Because Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy aka Confederate Ku Klux Klan White Citizens Council leaders don't want Trump to waste his time tryng to appeal to the political center.
Because the 58% of the white voting majority including 62% of white men and 54% of white women who voted for Trump in 2016 don't want Trump wasting his time trying to appeal to the political center.
No collusion! MAGA!
4
The reason that Trump is not trying to widen his base, now, is because the Democrats are being short sighted. They see Trump as someone who can be defeated due to low approval ratings. What they conclude is that they have an opportunity to press for progressive ideas and advancing the rights of minorities in a big way that has not been possible since the 1960's by defeating Trump. They have not learned from Clinton's loss, that when people stay home because they are cool on both candidates, the election is decided by core constituencies, not the majority of the eligible voters.
5
Your question is a good one, Mr. Bouie. The center is not alarmed by Trump's rhetoric as it doesn't have much of a direct impact on their lives. They see his overtures to despotic foreign leaders as a cooling effect on warmongering, tacit or direct, from both sides of the aisle. Many defend his tax cuts on billionaires because "they pay my salary." Employer provided health care is something they don't want to lose.
The center believing we live in a colorblind, merit based society, see the Charlotte white supremacists as an anomaly that Trump is patronizing to lessen their influence. Granted, this one is hard to fathom.
With an economy rising above expectations at present, these people are, nevertheless, lukewarm on Trump's presidential prospects. For progressives, however, they're a lost cause.
2
Trump is not committed to being President, he is committed to winning elections. What is needed to do that is as much as he will do. His base are conned into thinking that he is their guy and will strive to achieve what they want. As long as it is easy and does not cost him anything, he will, but otherwise, he could not care less. This is a man who lives for today and does not really have a care about the future.
1
In my opinion , Trump feels the other half will stay home and not vote. The tactics of Jim Crow days KKK'ed the , what WASPS played, to frighten the children of lesser god.
No, it will not happen. God has made his children stronger and will not blink.
Go, Democrats.
Could it be that everyone has missed the (tragic) joke? Of course no one expects Trump to tack to the center. Compromise is for Democrats! That no one bats an eye at the idea that Republicans will never run on "moderation" despite numerous pieces in this paper begging Democrats to run a Republican who isn't Trump is the very reason we teeter daily on the brink of a constitutional crisis.
By the Republican telling of it, moderates only like a little bit of squalor in their concentration camps and only tens of millions instead of hundreds of millions going to the private contractors running them. Moderates want some (but not all!) people to expect medical bankruptcies, and the rest to be disappointed with but complacent about their private insurance. Moderates only want some lobbyists to be able to get the president's attention by attending events at venues he owns and profits from. Moderates want some (but not all! Guess which) people's votes subject to voter suppression. By the Republicans' accounts, it's a pity this moderate just doesn't exist.
1
Trump can't win the center because policy is only part of the problem with Trump. Trump is a lying, mysoginistic, narssicistic, self-agrandizing, racist, inept conman. I wouldn't cross the street to vote for him even if by some miracle he adopted an enlightened policy overnight.
3
It looks like Trump's plan is to dump Pence as a running mate and weasel in Nikki Haley, to attract that suburban women base.
3
Trump doesn't need to "win" the center because the Democrats have done a superb job of losing it. See HRC for details. Then look at the confederation of far left Democratic candidates for 2020 trying to prove that the moon is made of green cheese. Great entertainment............
13
The Dems' problem is that any wing-dingy thing AOC says, they take seriously because they fear a twitter-bombing. Nancy Pelosi, whom anyone halfway conservative considers too liberal, is actually what passes for the center these days. But she ain't running. That hilarious MSNBC debate proves how nutsy the Dem candidates have become: Open Borders, Yes! Free College, Yes! Green New Deal, Yes! Reparations, Yes! UBI, Yes! Have these people ever driven across the 'flyover' country and talked to people? You wouldn't think so. It's hard to imagine Trump as the adult in the room - impossible, really - but the nation is not going to give the keys to the kingdom to the SJW's. Trump will win the center because to every Dem with aspirations, it's not a winning strategy, it's an open manhole.
19
Most of us recognize AOC for what she is: a mouthy, narcissistic freshman representative who has accomplished nothing and who needs to shut up, learn how government works, and actually accomplish something. Meanwhile, she makes herself into a scary sound bite for the right to use to raise money.
7
It struck me while reading Bouie's column that Trump is awfully smug that he can win the 2020 election by only pandering to his 32-42% base with horrible ideas and hatred, while dismissing the concerns of the majority (52-58%) of the electorate, who disapprove of his performance--and it is certainly a "performance" on his part--as president.
Why is Trump so confident: Putin and Russia interference (what kind this time, we can wonder), GOP gerrymandering, voter ID shenanigans, voting machine hacking, keeping certain polls dysfunctional in numerous ways??? Does Trump know something our intelligence community does not?
Or how about this one: Trump loses the popular election and the Electoral College vote in 2020 but refuses to leave office, claiming the election was a fraud?
4
The history is that on average, 56% of the electorate votes. If 56% of the eligible voters do vote and 35% of all of the eligible voters who are avid supporters of Trump vote, then they will win with a majority of 62.5% of the vote. That is what is allowing Republicans to dominate without having a popular majority of support. That is why Trump is happy to keep his loyal 35 - 45% of the electorate happy.
The problem is much more insidious. Our system of government is not base upon power from the barrel of a gun, but in mutual trust based upon perceived mutual interests. This deepening division is going to destroy the foundation of our government.
4
I guess it hasn't dawned on Trump that Clinton pushed a significant number of the Center votes to him during her campaign.
4
Mr. Bouie, what are you doing in offering Trump campaign advice? I presume you do so only because you know Trump or the Republican leadership would never go for any of this. I agree on Republican leadership, but Trump is a slippery weasel who may realize that the writing is on the wall for his presidency unless he does some of the things you suggest. Of course I would like to see the federal government do these things, regardless of who is in charge, but I can't take 4 more years of Trump and Mitch McConnell. Neither can our country. Don't give him any ideas for how to stay in power, please!
1
I don't think this article could be more off base. Trump's two major issues: the economy and immigration appeal to middle of the road voters. Most people are happy that employment is so high and that the economy is doing so well. A strong labor market is so much better for wages than a high minimum wage. I believe that the vast majority of Americans are against illegal immigration even if they have sympathy for illegal immigrants who are already here. Contrast Mr. Trump's immigration policy with the stated aim of all the democratic candidates who favor free healthcare for illegal immigrants. Who do you think the middle of the road voters will favor on this, when those same middle of the road voters have to pay thousands of dollars for their own health insurance? Also, Mr. Bouie is wrong about the polls.
Mr. Trump's approval is at an all time high, and way higher than it was when he won in 2016. Finally, the democrats are falling over themselves in terms of liberal policies: Green New Deal, Medicare for all, Higher taxes, abolishing private health insurance, late term abortions. If these are policies designed to appeal to the middle class, then I smell a landslide..
21
@chip.... "Trump's two major issues: the economy and immigration appeal to middle of the road voters."...No matter what you think he has going for him, it is hard to imagine why anyone would choose to vote for a vulgar bigoted narcissist. Never mind the fact that he is a pathological liar, who is afraid to release his tax returns, and who has done everything he can to obstruct justice. If you care about the country there is more to consider than the economy, and don't forget when Obama was President illegal immigration was at a forty year low and their were no caravans crossing Mexico.
1
Trump is not a politician. Your opinion is based on the premise that he must do whatever to win elections - that is Politics 101. That is why politics is such a dirty game.. politicians do and say whatever gives them the best chance to win. Trump had (and will have again) a pretty darn good life outside politics. In fact, he's more stressed now than before.
Trump's supporters appreciate his principled attitude. He does what he believes is right, regardless of consequences.
Like it or not, he's not flip-flopping like Biden, twice in 48 hrs. He does not pretend to be somebody else like Kamala or Cory, he does not pander like all Democratic candidates except for Bernie who's a pure socialist. He does not pretend to be a minority, like Warren, to get ahead.
For that, Trump supporters will be on his side no matter what. If they're not enough to win elections, so be it.
America has not had a more vertical president since Nixon.
For better or for worse.
8
@Michael Nicula
The irony is that if you look at the original historical documents instead of relying on the media interpretation of them, Nixon was a decent president. Sure, the Watergate thing did him in.
But if he had a better relationship with the media he could have overcome that with a simple apology and firing of some people. The thing is he didn't have a good relationship with the media because he cut off their biggest funders, tobacco companies, by banning advertising dollars from them.
3
@Viv
My comment was quite positive about Nixon - I said he was 'vertical' - meaning principled person, not a typical politician.
Nixon was caught trying to cover up some non-sense. Other presidents did far worse things but managed to get away with it. They all have..
I think Obama's misdeeds were the worst (spying on a political opponent) but Reagan (Iran Contra), Bush (missing 9/11 clues, Iraq war), Clinton's affairs.. compared to those, Nixon's 'obstruction of justice' was a mere misdemeanor.
2
@Michael Nicula
"I think Obama's misdeeds were the worst (spying on a political opponent)"
Perhaps president's tweet shouldn't be enough to be qualified as a fact. Neither the reiteration of the tweet by Fox News.
The Law enforcement spied on Trump, just like they would to with any American citizen they think are conspiring with Russia. Why should Trump be an exception?
You have already exempted him of Principle, and rule of law. Perhaps, making him an exception to the rest of his character might help you live in denial and peace.
Mr Bouie
You presume this president has this much political insight and intelligence to even recall there is a centre to be influenced??
To appeal to the centre, he would have to control his mouth, control his behavior and most of all control his drama.
He can barely manage that with a tel-prompter... and I said barely.
He has cunning, a conniving temper and street smarts-- but does not have a vision.
And I thank the good Lord for that everyday.
If he ever had a strong vision of future, with all the rabidly supportive fan base he has, you would be looking at the coming of the "Fourth Reich", right now... not usual reality TV-like, punitive melodrama.
I cna't wait for the elections.
2
As Trump's speech today on the environment evidences, his strategy is to do exactly what he did in 2016. Promise voters what they want to hear to get elected, and then govern the way he wants to. And if you think the last 4 years were bad, think what will happen when he doesn't have to worry about being re-elected.
4
I think we should boycott Trump by leaving out if the NYTimes totally. It would drive him nuts and I don’t think anyone would lose anything newsworthy. What do you all think about my modest proposal?
1
I think this has less of a chance then Hillary Clinton does of becoming the next president.
1
Win the center? Trump's goal right now is to hold on to his fascist/nationalist voters, with the ultimate hope of not going to prison, for all of his fraud and pandering.
2
The "why" question in the headline is a good one, but there is not a hint of answer to it here. The enigma of Trumpism perhaps precludes one, but we should really be making a stab at it. And what are the Republicans thinking about this? Are they throwing in the towel, delusional, or secure in thinking the fix is already in.
@stuart
There's no "enigma" to Trumpism if you move out of DC and media social circuit.
Trump isn't trying to win the center because there is no center to win. The minuscule votes that exist in the center wouldn't vote for him no matter what he said/did to appease them. He knows they already find him revolting, and he's okay with that - as he should be.
1
These are all worthy goals for a normal president to achieve to improve his chances for reelection. But this is Donald Trump. Adopting a more moderate stance would only serve to anger the conservative media gods he is subservient to.
1
Trump already has the center.
Remember the Silent Majority?
I think many Trump supporters do not want the drama entailed in publicly supporting him.
He will win re-election.
11
Trump's strategy is as unconventional as his presidency. It seems correct to say that he has abandoned the center. What he actually is trying is to win the center by negative appeals against opponents that silence and neutralize the center with help from abroad, and turn the election into a battle of right vs. left.
1
Has it ever occurred to anyone out there that nearly half of Americans love Trump and they don't mind in the least that he's a liar, racist, bigot, misogynist, law breaker, womanizer, cheat, and that he's single-highhandedly taken absolute control of our government? Pretty easy, huh. So, tell me, which half is right?
3
The Center? “You just move right in...”
Every time the media gives him a pass, he continues the assault.
1
Trump has already won the center. As soon as the democrats made a mad dash to see who is the most woke/insane and who was the farthest lefty from normal common sense he secured his election victory. If you think the president can't win in 2020 you are obviously delusional or need anymore proof just ask middle America to look at their 401k values. I actually tend to believe that if Ivanka runs in 2024 she will have a huge success and be the first Female POTUS if Trump doesn't put her on his 2020 ticket as VP
7
Anyone playing exclusively to their base while ignoring/antagonizing all other political centers of gravity, should be a one term president. That's assuming the normal laws of gravity still exist.
2
Trump doesn't appeal to the 'middle' because he knows he doesn't have to. Because of gerrymandering, voter suppression efforts, and propaganda spreading like wildfire on the internet, a thin, marginal Democratic majority will easily give him the electoral college again in a replay of 2016.
The way the deck has been stacked, the Democrats and swing voters will need to vote by an overwhelming margin in 2020 just to break even.
Not saying it couldn't happen. But is it really likely?
It's Trump's election to lose. And he knows it.
2
Trump has it figured right. Mr. Bouie just hasn't taken into account a few 'other factors' that Trump has. Consider:
Trump starts out with 35% from his "base" - the hardcore Trumpistas who will -always-back Trump, right up until the drives the country over a cliff, and then ride it down with him.
Add on 5% for the Republican's voter suppression efforts, blocking out minorities, the poor, the young, and anyone else that can make voting onerous enough to discourage.
Add on 5% for outright Trump lies and intentional Trump deceptions repeated by the "conservative" echo-sphere and the Fox "News" Trump Propaganda network.
Add on 5% for the Russian interference on social media.
Add on 5% for outright vote fraud, election machine hacking, ballot 'disallowing', and other Republican mainstays. North Carolina's 9th district midterm is not the very first time this has ever happened... despite how 'shocked, shocked I say!' Republicans were to discover it happened there, somehow.
Add on 5% for Trump buying votes using tax dollars, like his farmers bailout for the Trump Tariffs.
Add on 5% for the Trump Iran "military response", started at just the right time to distract, and "support our president in time of war" is the ultimate distraction, when that president provokes the war.
Add it all up and you've got another "Trump Landslide". No need to even count the votes - maybe we should just make Trump "President for Life" it's so clear he's destined to win.
2
@Jim Brokaw I'm actually OK with that Idea. Maybe not life but 4 terms??
2
...Because there is not center left in the American politics?
Trump won the 2016 election with his hardliner rhetoric, not with a centrist message. He won by saying, "Mexicans are rapist", "border wall", "Repealing Obamacare", "Out of Paris Agreement and Iran Nuclear agreement" etc.
When will the left learn that Trump don't need to woo the center to win in 2020, but that the Democratic party will alienate all imperfect people and push them towards Trump's guilt-free refuge?
Trump and GOP don't need the center to win, and they know that. Democrats do need the center to win (if a center exist), but somehow they don't seem to know that.
3
This "moderate center" that people keep talking about feels like a myth to me, like some magical unicorn in the political forests of an ancient past. If a person won't vote for a candidate who is supposedly "too far left" but they will vote for a candidate who is as far right as it gets in American politics, then that person is not in the "moderate center" at all. That person is a republican. If it quacks like a duck ...
2
@Rob Soooo...... no true Scotsman then huh.
Actually, it could end up being a productive strategy - Trump counting on the Democratic party to alienate "The Center" more than he does. The 2020 election is for theirs for the taking, but the Democratic Party could blow it by nominating a candidate who is so far to the left that the folks in the middle opt for Trump as the "less bad" option.
4
Well, Trump won without even winning the popular vote so I assume he thinks he can do the same outrageous junk he did in 2016. He needs to keep four states. Will the electorate in Florida, Ohio, Penn, and Michigan let the nation down again?
5
Jamelle Bouie asks why Trump doesn't try to win the center. The obverse of this question is why Democrats say they must win the center. In the Time magazine interview, Trump says that he only needs to count on his base for support. By contrast, we keep reading that by going for more progressive programs like single-payer healthcare, free college, student debt cancellation, green new deal policies, Democrats will undercut their own chances of election. The calculus here is that moderates will abandon progressive Democrats but will hold their noses and vote for radical policies adopted by Trump. What explains this asymmetry in American voters?
3
Trump has no interest in winning over the center or middle ground, because to do so he would alienate what he call 'My people' AKA 'Deplorables ' .
He is quite content that his brand remains toxic to Democrats and Independents . One thing he or his campaign advisors is correct on is that the damage there is already done and well beyond repair.
His plan appears to be to look for votes among those people who traditionally don't vote , there is some argument to be made that he largely captured that segment of the electorate in 2016 .
Whether he has a winning plan will remain to be seen, and largely depends on who is his Democratic opponent.
1
Because of the Electoral College.
2
Why move to the middle when the liberal left will just scare the moderates to maintain the status quo. Trump's biggest gift will be if the Democratic candidates outflank each other in more and more defense of illegals, eliminating private healthcare, and any number of other crazy $1T programs that will only drive the undecideds to stay with Trump.
7
If Trump did as you say he should, he would lose much of his 'Base'. & current Democrats won't vote for him In any case.
Of course we should stop separating children from their parents. It's cruel & inhumane. I also think that the parents are inhumane for bringing their children here before their asylum cases have been adjudicated. You can't tell me they don't know what's going on at the border, what their children are likely to suffer.
5
For Trump, sticking with his base, inciting his base, rallying his base may be required for his life after being president.
If he loses in 2020, he could use his base to try to rip the country apart. There is an outside chance that division was always his only real goal. Additionally, maintaining his base will help supply the jury pool with supporters should he or any family members be prosecuted for financial and/or political crimes.
This assumes the President and the GOP will even allow a fair and accurate election. They know they can't win with their policies or ideas, so they will undermine (Russia? Are you listening?) our elections by stacking the deck as well as disenfranchising voters. The entire basis for this opinion is flawed.
3
@Socrates (who got it almost all right)
All you say is good with me except adding Pete Buttigieg up there with Sanders, Warren and even Harris. I don’t think you or anyone knows much about that guy. Looked like an intelligent opportunist to me. The type who is excellent in padding his CV with goodies like his post-Rhodes stunt in Afghanistan.
Warren and Bernie are proven entities. Let’s get behind them and if they don’t run in a joint ticket, get Harris to be the running mate of either one.
2
@Blunt You meant "stint" in Afghanistan, I hope. Not "stunt."
1
@Gabrielle Rose
Thank you Gabrielle. I meant stint but stunt might have been a good Freudian slip too.
I would also like to converse with him in some of the languages he cites that he is fluent in.
1
Hillary Clinton was the platonic ideal of Moderate, and she was the central, sole reason Trump won in 2016. Many think immoderate Bernie Sanders would have beat Trump, hence he was targeted for defeat by the DNC. Trump is correct he does not have to go beyond his base, just let the DNC again govern the early primaries to assure the emergence of another moderate dud.
1
@Edwin Hillary was the "central, sole reason" for Trump winning? You don't think Russia was part of it? Voter suppression in African American communities? Eliminating the polling places for primarily immigrant geographies? Eliminating early or Sunday voting? Convoluted gerrymandering down to block groups? Sanders' petulant refusal to back her? She never had a chance.
3
@Gabrielle Rose: Don't forget Comey. Comey's irregular personal criticism of her carelessness, or whatever he said, early on, and then his last minute bombshell about new (irrelevant as it happened) emails to investigate: it's ironic that Trump hates him, because he's the one, more than anyone else, who torpedoed HRC's campaign.
2
As Napoleon said ‘Never interfere with an enemy while he’s in the process of destroying themselves"
The Democratic debates are winning the center for Trump. Raise you hand if you want to abolish private insurance (which most middle class workers have). Remind the public that the vile segregationists with whom Biden got things done with were members of his own Democratic Caucus. Promise to undo the tax cuts "on day 1" that put more money into the pockets of everyone who earns a paycheck.
The Trump political ads can be highlights of the Democratic debates as the candidates outdo themselves to appeal to the Woke critics. The rest of the country is watching in disbelief.
6
@James
Most middle class workers have private insurance through their employer, which for many changes nearly every year and costs increasingly more for less coverage. There is no Republican proposal to address this. They're not even pretending anymore. There is no Republican proposal to address medical bankruptcy, which is far and away the most common reason for middle class bankruptcy filings. But sure, if you're healthy and don't have children and never thought for more than a moment about your health insurance, this probably isn't your issue. I truly hope you stay healthy. You'd be surprised how little even "good" private insurance covers.
I'd be surprised if you found anyone who thinks the tax cuts helped them personally (who doesn't have Fox blaring in the background), and even fewer who would be correct about that. The paltry middle class tax cuts also are set to expire. It'll be amusing to see Trump justify that to the Democratic nominee.
At the end of the day, what you're saying is that the harrowing conditions in the detention centers, the tax cuts for (only) the wealthy, and the lack of any plan to address the asymptotic rise in medical bankruptcies are fine with you. You should vote your conscience and everyone else should do the same. I know whom I hope will prevail.
2
@Law Feminist Thanks for the response.
A. Regarding healthcare and medical bankruptcy, We were sold the ACA just a few years ago, and now Republicans are supposed to have a new system? Medical bankruptcy is very complex, and not necessarily driven by lack of insurance - since when you are severely sick, you stop working (stop earning a paycheck, go on ST disability, generally 60% of full time salary). So, medical bankruptcy could be due to mortgage, car payment, groceries that are paid for when one is sick. Unless we are going to start requiring everyone to have AFLAC plans, there isn't really a good solution. Besides, bankruptcy is argubaly the best fix (US allows debt to be discharged, Europeans are much worse off).
Everyone got a tax cut, my effective rate went from 33% to 22%, but we are near the top 1% (which is only $460K by the way). Rich get the largest tax breaks because rich pay most taxes. It is impossible to cut taxes without cutting taxes for the rich.
The border detention centers. Hard to blame only Trump or Republicans for a 20 to 30 year old problem. But allowing more visas for low skill workers would help, but it would also drive down opportunities for US workers without high school diplomas. It is a tough issue, and the good US economy is drawing more workers wanting to take part. I guess one solution would be to trigger a recession, but that is cutting nose to spite face.
1
He is finished in Michigan, no chance of winning the state and yes I live here to make such a statement. Quite a few republicans and indys who voted for him now express their displeasure at his performance. They expected him to move to the center and govern from that position not move further to the right and basically fall off the political scale.
11
@DG He won't win Pennsylvania either.
3
Why isn’t Trump trying to win the center? Simple. He’s too busy trying to fill the void at his center, which for him means headlines. Thus he must be ever more the extremist and provocateur.
3
Q: Why isn't Trump trying to win "the center."
A: Because he can't.
4
I appreciate the perspective in this essay, but the idea that Trump would consider anything approaching a policy or do anything that isn't motivated by grievance and self-aggrandizement is just laughable.
2
Republicans do not win elections by catering to the center. They win by holding strong on their convictions. That those convictions are ludicrous and harmful is hardly relevant.The Republican ideology has been normalized over decades, and conservative principles have become associated with normalcy. This is evidenced by our societal mandate to respect servicemen and women, and by mandatory drug screenings for federal employment. Trump will remain unabashedly fascist and will likely win, not in spite of it, but because of it.
Meanwhile, Democrats favor policies that are far more popular but still feel the need to negotiate towards the center, often before even prompted. If Democrats want to win, they must pick a set of ideals and stand by it. Those ideals must become the norm. Voters know the difference between conviction and tentative agreement based on numbers. They do not want to be catered to. They want to be inspired.
In sum, any candidate who bases their policy goals on popularity deserves to lose. Any citizen who votes based on "likeliness to beat Trump" deserves Trump.
3
America seems a strange place for this Quebecer.
It was Mark Twain who wrote of Montreal "You can't throw a stone without breaking a church windows."
Mark Twain is as current now as he was a century ago but that broken window is now a restaurant, condo or on some architects drawing board where the fate of large empty no longer useful spaces is being decided.
The middle of nowhere is still nowhere.
The Looking Glass World of Lewis Carroll has Humpty Dumpty as its leader and this 71 year old feels like Alice in a world growing curiouser and curiouser as he listens or reads the nonsense of American media.
A recent trip to Washington reminded me of how kind to the USA the last 70 years have been. Washington is beautiful, its young people are stunning. If you scoured the world looking for the best and brightest you would have Washington DC.
70 years ago we went to Silver Springs and DC was a light year away. Today Washington is rich diverse, safe, inviting and dynamic.
Liberal is the opposite of autocratic and DC screams this is what liberal democracy looks like. To this older white man it looks just wonderful. The people are as beautiful as ever.
I don't know what Trumpists want and I can't imagine what the middle can possibly be. Mayberry is a theme park next to Jurassic World.
Maybe it is time to say this is the America we want and we ain't giving it up. America needs its 12 million "illegal" people and probably 8 million more today and another 25 million tomorrow.
4
What we learned from the last election is that Trump's base is likely larger than many presume. Part of his base is "in the closet." These are people ashamed to openly admit to pollsters. colleagues, and friends that they favor Trump's tactics.
7
We need one great special leader that will emerge in the next few short months. A sensible bipartisan inspiring articulate orator. Someone to herd the sheep and the wolves.
One that is grounded and yet has no fundamental scandals in their logic, past actions and behaviors; that has an abundance of empathy; that has no contrived political schism, vacuous political party support and a bullhorn devoid of useful issue facts.
The Trump family enterprises are raking in profits for favors. We know that still, let it occur. They work for themselves, not the electorate.
Trump's and his partisan and pedo friends don't know any other way. Mar-a-Lago and other Trump beauty pageant and tv shock celebrity party favors have for years teed up more elite favors than any other political leader we have ever had. They provide favors for ultra-rich men that bask in the fake and crooked lifestyles of the rich and bully famous.
We can do so much better for the USA and the world if we listen and separate the wheat for the chaff with regards to information on issues that matter. Left, right and center.
That UK ambassador leak was spot on correct. Virtually all other countries but the USA know and see the Trump inept incompetence. Media Matters.
Trump's July 4th blatantly incorrect excessive political taxpayer-funded rally was the height of embarrassment for the USA and a great example of really bad leadership. God help us if the bad guys help him get reelected again.
2
This commentary so misses the point. Donald Trump is playing to his base for it is that base that will enrich him when he is out of office. The Trump media channel will far exceed that of Fox and Limbaugh and their ilk. Imagine how much money Trump can make monetizing his base. That is why he could care less about those outside his base. They're his meal ticket.
2
Simple ,the dems are doing it for him.
3
Trump could'nt win the center even if he tried. Even if he did will the center believe him? NO! If the center did believe him then we Americans deserve another 4 years of this toxic President.
There is still a very good chance that Trump will win reelection. It is a given that his base would crawl barbwire to vote for him. But what about those not in his base, will they actually vote. Will we have the Bernie Bros with their 'Bernie or Bust' attitude where they just don't vote? Will the people that backed other Democrat candidates just decide to vote of a boutique party just so they can say they voted for President. Many things can go Trump's way where he can get the 40 -45% of the popular vote he needs to win.
I agree with Mr. Bouie that President Trump could reach out to the center but his ego may prevent reaching out from happening. Perhaps even more importantly if Trump were to reach our he could lose a significant portion of "his" base. However since I did not and do not support the President's policies I am pleased he won't try to reach the middle. The President's ego won't let him acknowledge Bouie's statement, "A majority of the American electorate — liberals, moderates and even some conservatives — want a greater government role in health care, a higher minimum wage, higher taxes on the rich and less punitive border policies." However the President's strategists recognize there is some risk to that strategy and will focus on winning in the Electoral College, with or without the approval of the President. So hang on its going to be a bumpy ride!
1
Trump is actually pretty centrist by a lot of standards. Democrats are just trying to push the overton window so far left that Trump seems far right. They have de facto endorsed open borders, eliminating fossil fuels, and all sorts of other crazy stuff they don't even support in far left parties in Europe.
7
I fear that polling on policy matters - when divorced from political parties or specific candidates - is not fully indicative of how Americans actually vote.
Many Americans, when asked, would like to see a more robust social safety net and more comprehensive health care - subsidized by some degree by the federal government (i.e. one which doesn't rest solely on the whims of employers and insurance companies).
But if you tell these same voters that these policies are supported by the Democratic Party - suddenly they see them as "socialistic". In many cases, this means white voters who don't want to see "Others" (minorities, the poor, the unemployed) getting the same benefits that they believe they deserve for themselves.
That's not only the core of Trump's base, but also the "fringes" of his base as well. I suspect many folks who describe themselves as "moderates" fall into this fringe of Trump's base - voters who don't go to his rallies or sport his MAGA caps, but still feel on a gut level that Trump speaks for their white, Christian, "traditional values" tribe.
And these folks have been conditioned by forty years of hate radio and twenty years of Fox News that "Democrats are Socialists" (or worse) - and that they're also the Party of "identity politics" (i.e. they cater more to "Others" than to "Real Americans" like themselves).
I suspect that 95% of those who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for him again. Dems need to focus on the 90 million who didn't vote in 2016.
5
I am very much in the center and, based strictly on what I saw in the Democratic debates, I will have no choice but to support Trump’s re-election efforts. Most of the people I know, and most are highly educated and successful, and they seem to feel the same way. That’s not to say any of use “like” Trump or they way he acts, but rather we are not at all interested in creeping socialism, higher taxes, and unlimited healthcare for illegal immigrants.
7
@Thomas Smith Well, if you're not interested in creeping socialism, you can in good conscience vote for any of the Democrats running even Bernie because there is not a socialist in the bunch. Not one has advocated government seizing the means of production. Higher taxes? They're coming because you can't fight wars without paying for them, and the Trump tax bill will not enhance revenue, though it did hit small closely held businesses hard. Most countries with comprehensive, single payer healthcare not only cover citizens, but visitors. And in the US we're not asking for proof of citizenship at hospitals where we provide free care to everyone who cannot pay as it is. Vote for Trump if you want, but don't pretend there is anything a Democrat could say to get your vote.
4
@Thomas Smith Unless you're a billionaire, you really don't need to worry about anyone raising your taxes. Truly. The right won a gigantic coup tricking people into thinking that raising marginal rates will affect anything but the top of the margin. I'm not sure what "creeping socialism" is exactly, but I don't think staving off medical bankruptcies and expanding an existing, popular healthcare program objectively qualifies. As for unlimited healthcare for illegal immigrants, I'm afraid you're already paying for that through your tax dollars and "facility fees" charged at hospitals today. As an aside, you may be glad that hospitals don't turn people away when they're treating people for communicable diseases in your community.
As for your choice, you always have a choice! I thought moderates liked the Republican appeal to personal responsibility. You sound like you believe in common sense. Your vote is one of the highest honors you can bestow in a representative democracy ("republic" if you prefer) like ours, and honorable people will no doubt agree to cast their votes for the greater good. I hope you use it wisely.
2
2020 is all about mobilization. It's not so much that Trump expects to win with 40 percent of the vote; he expects Democrats to lose. The fact is there aren't enough persuadable voters. The game next year is about suppressing hostile votes while turning out friendly votes. That's it. You're not convincing anyone. Trump obviously expects Russia, GOP legislatures, and other strong arm tactics to aid in his suppression efforts.
However, the fact remains: It's the Democrat's election to lose. There's a 7-10 point structural disadvantage which we've seen Democrats overcome. Add another 1.5 points because Trump is currently the incumbent with a good-on-paper economy. Democrats therefore need a 12 point victory at least. Obama was the rare candidate that could pull that sort of landslide.
You need an exciting candidate that can mobilize the disparate Democratic coalition. However, you also need a candidate that isn't going to turnout opposition votes. That's why Obama was so effective. He pulled together the left without agitating the right too much. Bush did the rest of the work for him. Let me tell you though, Biden is not Obama and this isn't 2008. Democrats better figure out an inspiring candidate and quick. Like 2016 though, the big-D establishment doesn't seem interested in winning at all.
They want a comfortable center that appeases a donor class that can't win national elections.
5
Trump can't manage the center because none of his voters are there. However, the big question is whether the Democrats will turn out. They won the House last year based on their promises to reign in Trump. So far, it hasn't happened and Pelosi and Schumer have allowed him to run amok in the hopes that somehow that will win elections for Dems next year.
I remember back in 2004, Dems had the same idea-anyone but Bush and thought voters would see how bad GWB was at governing. Didn't work then and it won't work now. If Pelosi and Schumer still want to act like Trump is normal politics, please step aside and let your younger colleagues lead the new way forward.
4
The simple answer is because he doesn't have to. With Democrats neatly living in states he doesn't have to carry in order to win, Trump can focus on smaller states, and smaller towns where voters largely don't want the America that the loudest voices of the Democratic party espouse. Democrats squabble over which of their many trillion dollar (read as more taxes from somebody, meaning likely everyone) proposed Federal programs should come first, while most voters simply want a better paying job, with a pension and health insurance. If the Dems focused on this, they'd win running away. Trump is a necessary evil for many Republicans. He'll turn on them given enough time, like he has on Fox News. Hopefully they will on him, given a decent choice.
1
Ask better questions,
The Democrats just don’t get it. You explained it perfectly. The states that are basically up for grabs more likely will reject these trillion dollar programs.
2
@Ask Better Questions: But the thing is, Trump barely squeaked by in the big states that made a difference last time: close enough, a few thousand votes, that you could legitimately say it was within the margin of error. A few people who needed to pick up the kids, or had to work late, would have made the difference.
There are some states and districts that the Dems might concede to Trump, but those are exactly the ones that the Dems don't need to win. (Unfortunately, but that's the way it is) The large states that were close last time are still easily winnable with popular Democratic programs, as Bouie describes.
1
This essay overlooks two potent factors.
a. The electoral college favors rural states over urban states. He's trying to repeat 2016 by firing up his rural conservative base who feel ignored and forced to conform to ideas foreign to them.
b. He is so wrapped up in the adulation and rhetoric of his rallies that he believes his followers are invincible and will assure his victory -- so long as he continues to do their work and keep them fired up.
Should he lose, I fear he will try to use his base to declare the election invalid and remain in power.
6
@lgalb: Well, he's got those rural electoral college states, but they haven't added any more of them. There's no way he can increase that number. The question is, can he increase or consolidate his support in the states he won by a tiny margin last time. Or is he even going to try?
I think his 4th of July rally was an effort to show a new persona: no crazy insults, and the NYT gave him credit for "calling for unity". (The mainstream media are desperate for "normalization.)
And somewhere recently I saw something about his talking about the problem of homelessness, and suggesting he might turn his attention to solving it. That would be new! And it would certainly be a stick to beat California with...
Point of order, you mis-attributed your poll. It isn't a majority "support a path to citizenship for the undocumented," the question was: "Developing a plan to allow some people living in the U.S. illegally to become legal residents" (page 10)
The actual question in the poll does not mention citizenship, and pointedly does not include all undocumented only a nebulous "some" (like the dreamers, ala DACA).
There are other polls you could have used if you wanted to make this point, but not this one.
3
The 52% of people who "definitely" won't vote for Trump in 2020 is the less than the 54% who didn't vote for him in 2016. Quoting numbers for voters as a whole is meaningless, because of the Electoral College. You can bet Trump will put his effort into the states he won the last time. Democrats need to do the same. What they also need is policy-related polls in the states that could go either way. Universal polls on health care for example don't tell you anything about what effect policies would have in the states that matter. States like CA and NY, where Democrats are preaching to the choir, are irrelevant as long as the Electoral College exists.
2
Trump can't win this election. He's shown for roughly three years that he's not a moderate. He can't change that record in the next year.
However, Democrats can still lose this election. Trump has handed them the middle - a middle that propelled them to a house majority via moderate candidates who won in suburban districts that had previously been Republican. Free healthcare for illegal immigrants and decriminalizing illegal immigration as well as single payer healthcare may well be the things that lose this election.
1
@JP: "Free healthcare for illegal immigrants" does turn up on right-wing memes. It's a bogus issue, but that won't stop the memers, and it might have a marginal effect. (And of course, marginal can be important in a close race.)
Trump, I believe, is counting on his base, as well as the power of the following:
Rush Limbaugh;
Vladimir Putin;
Wikileaks; and
Fox News.
I also guarantee that every Republican Secretary of State around the country is figuring out every possible way to suppress the likely Democratic vote, from scrubbing the voter rolls, a la Florida 2000, to putting tiny numbers of voting machines in Democratic precincts, a la Ohio in 2004.
Oh, and if it's close, there's always the Supreme Court.
5
It should be noted that in the week before he was elected Trump had only a 41.8% favorability rating. Right now, according to FiveThirtyEight he has 42.7% approval.
He's a sitting president presiding over a great economy and historically low unemployment. It's the Democrats who should be worried about winning the center, not Trump. Instead they're going after Joe Biden, one of the only candidates who appeals to centrists. Great strategy!
In 2020, without Hillary Clinton or the Russians to blame, with almost every facet of the media relentlessly disseminating the Democrats' talking points, with social media platforms banning or marginalizing their biggest critics, with their overt weaponization of race, religion, gender and sexual orientation, and the threat of ostracization and societal excommunication looming large over anyone who breaks their rules - what if they lose again?
Will they finally admit that the far-left is a vocal, disproportionately influential minority whose opinions are not shared by most of the country?
8
Unfortunately he doesn't have to. He can rely on Democrats' expertise at losing elections. Unless something changes, this one is already over.
7
I'm glad there is no possibility of Trump managing any of these excellent ideas to gain more votes. Sure, it'd be pretty easy to gain votes from the center, without losing any of his base, by doing something as simple as raising the minimum wage to $10 an hour. The economy's doing fine, we're not getting into another war (yet), just one little move like that would get enough votes for Trump to be re-elected.
But thankfully, Trump is too dense and too resistant to ideas that aren't his. Nothing he ever proposes will be centrist, he is committed to having his biggest two issues being opposition to illegal immigration, and aid to the very wealthy.
I hope he stays on this path, because it will cause even more severe damage to America if he's re-elected. But it is indeed remarkable how far Trump is on policies from the vast majority of Americans, and that gives me great hope that this was an aberration, and America will fix itself starting with Trump's removal from office.
2
Considering that 40% of Americans approve of Trump's concentration camps, I think he's normalizing the alt-right enough to move centrists to the right. Instead of appealing to voters, he's changing them to appeal to him.
4
@Natalie
In today's NYT, there is an obituary for Eva Kor.
She was 85.
Eva, her twin Miriam, and her family were "deported" to Auschwitz by the Nazi regime in 1944.
While there, Eva and Miriam were subjected to sadistic experiments by the camp "Doctor" Josef Mengele as well as living in the most horrific conditions most humans could not even imagine. Miraculously, Eva and Miriam survived. The rest of her family did not. They were systematically killed at this concentration camp.
So before you, AOC and others so cavalierly co-opt the term "concentration camps" for your own political needs to describe the detention centers on our southern borders, perhaps you might want to take a minute to understand the deep differences between the two.
7
But most, but not all, of the Dems go overboard and thereby scare too many voters in the middle.
4
The VA healthcare system may be regarded as a prototype for a “public” healthcare option. It’s not perfect, but it’s not bad either.
And it’s a whole lot more affordable!
5
@ppromet. If this really is what would be provided as a public option, God help us.
3
Pres. Trump listened to overnight talk radio for years and discovered all the angry people, rational or not, potential voters all, who were clearly not being represented by the establishment of either party, who believed staying within certain parameters that both sides mostly stuck to over the years. He catered his message to them. Since then, he has been trying out a few new themes. It was difficult to paint Hillary as a socialist, when Bernie had done such a good job of painting her as a crony capitalist during the primaries, but we already see "socialist" is going to be a constant epithet used in attacks against virtually any of the two dozen Dem. candidates running this time. Perhaps he will find a couple of other topics that will pull over just enough voters again, or turn off some voters who might otherwise gravitate to the Dem. candidate, whoever it turns out to be, and instead stay home or vote for another candidate next November. Politically dumb, he isn't. Able to manipulate emotions, he is. Beware, Democrats. This isn't going to be a cakewalk. Many of the Dem. candidates may have thrown their hats into the ring thinking all they had to do was luck out on getting the nomination and they'd pretty much be home free. This was the good year to run against an incumbent president, they may have thought. Think again.
2
Trump's victory in the GOP primaries was due to the fact that he mobilized the extreme racists parts of the party. The David Duke types of the world were only mildly supportive of mainstream GOP candidates because they weren't overtly hateful of non-white and non-christian people. Trump pulled in these hate groups when he went into full on racist propaganda mode. He cannot go back. To appease the moderates, which he could do (even after all the lies) because they are very gullible people, he has to alienate the racists that gave him victory.
The thing that will get Trump reelected is likely the passiveness and fear of democrats who continue to try and be good conservatives that proceed incrementally and timidly. The DFL hates the left but has to tolerate them if they want to win. Of course, the left abandoned the moderate, banker friendly, corporate friendly, war mongering candidate in the last election. They will likely do the same this time.
It's my belief that the majority of DFL congresspeople are not so disliking of Trump that they would actually promote real policies that could help the people. It is clear that the presidential candidates know they need to espouse true progressive policies, but it is also clear that DFL politicians in congress general do not support truly progressive actions.
There is a criminal in the Whitehouse and the DFL congress wants to consider how upholding the law will affect them politically. A move that McConnell gets completely.
2
Trump is not interested in bringing people together. He channels resentment, fear and hatred. He won (?) on a slogan MAGA....and "lock her up"....It is way beyond his consciousness level to even understand what a real leader does.
The complete dishonesty of republicans and trump, with gerrymandering, voter suppression, citizens united and the outdated, outmoded electoral college make it easy for republicans to steal elections. Not in 2020....too many people will be watching and we will remove the curse of the trump.
2
With all due respect, Mr. Bouie, the real question for our times is: Why aren't the Democrats trying to win the center?!
And the scary answer appears to be that the Dems are in so much disarray that they may very well be conceding re-election to Trump... Democrats, heal thyself - before it's too late.
8
@Bowden: This is the question, though. As Mr. Bouie points out, the "center", in terms of most voters, is further to the left than the establishment and their pundits. The actual center would love universal health care, sensible gun control, access to abortion, and pretty much the whole wild and crazy Democratic agenda. This is even with the Republicans ranting about socialism. But will the center ever get what they want? The "establishment", which includes a lot of Democrats, is hesitant...
1
@John Bergstrom: I don't think the "whole wild and crazy Democratic agenda" IS the center... Not of the party - and certainly not of the nation.
There are tens of millions of moderate and independent voters who do not want 'wild and crazy', rather rational and respectful.
Because he can't. None would take it seriously if he moved to the center, because he has proven himself to be a shameless liar. And if he can't mobilize his base in a handful of swing states, he is toast.
Mind you, Trump would never have been elected or would stand a chance of reelection if it weren't for the electoral college. If the US president were elected directly by the people, Al Gore would have been president, and set the US on a completely different trajectory. What a wonderful world it could have been.
4
In answer to the question in the title, "Why Isn't Trump Trying to Win the Center?" I would guess that Trump is depending Russian trolls to take care of the election on his behalf.
2
Doesn't this belong in the same category as Bret Stephens and David Brooks being too free with advice to Democrats?
1
Trump and his enablers will put on a last-minute blitz of political fog. They'll push a Fox News version of what's happened and what's at stake. They'll completely misrepresent the platform and positions of whoever the Dems nominate. All that will convince just enough people again that he'll barely squeak by, then claim he has a massive mandate to lead.
I haven't seen Dems yet make a good alternative case to Trump. Instead they're out in the weeds, trying to figure out how to make Colin Kaepernick feel okay about everything. If Dems were smart, they'd co-opt Trump's strategy to tell the middle class what it wants to hear, in simple slogans that ring true for them. This is what we'll do about immigration. About wages. About taxes. About corruption (which everyone recognizes is a huge problem in the Trump admin). This clown should be easy to beat.
But unless Dems nominate the right candidate who can poke the obvious holes in Trump's narrative, they'll blow it, I'm afraid.
4
There is no such thing as "the center", and if there were he wouldn't need it, thanks to the huge bias the Electoral College grants him, and thanks to his Supreme Court that affirmed the legality of gerrymandering.
Today, the American Electorate is divided in three segments: uneducated whites, educated whites, and educated, and minorities. The uneducated whites, despite being a "numerical" minority of the overall population (they are a majority of the white population), are, thanks to the enormous Electoral College bias, a huge "electoral" majority. Educated whites are a relatively small minority of whites, whose votes count for very little after the bias in the Electoral College is taken into account. Racial minorities are as numerous as uneducated whites but, again thanks to the Electoral College, gerrymandering, and lack of political awareness, their vote counts for very little.
Trump's victory is practically guaranteed - no need for any "center".
1
@Richard Monckton: Gerrymandering, bad as it is, actually doesn't affect the presidential election: State's votes are counted as a total, not by congressional district. (I've heard that there is a proposal floating around to assign electoral votes by congressional district: in that case, gerrymandering instantly become a huge factor. But that hasn't happened yet.)
Your demographic numbers are relevant, but remember, with those same numbers, he barely squeaked in last time, by a handful of votes in a few key states and that was with Wikileaks, Russia, and Comey's last minute bombshell. I don't see any guarantees. But it will be close.
2
Because he doesn't have to. McConnell will protect him in the Senate. Russia/Putin, the electoral college, entrenched racists/racism, electoral fraud, voter suppression/undercounting will help him win a narrow margin again, god forbid.
1
The center has been abandoned by both the right and the left, which is extremely dangerous. There is a dynamics of political polarization at work in the USA, which is independent of politicians’ actual intentions and personalities. This process is sadly familiar to anybody who has studied history and international relations (which seems to exclude a lot of Americans). I don’t like comparisons with the rise of Nazism but perhaps it is good to consider that in the elections of 1933 which brought Hitler to power, the Communist Party also gained seats. Had the Communists seized power instead of the Nazis, would Germany and the world have been better off? Would World War 2 have been avoided? I doubt it. There was a sane center in Germany at the time but it was splintered and demoralized. When you have a choice between two kinds of extremism, which one is better? And yes, at least rhetorically, the extreme left today is just as dangerous as the extreme right.
1
It matters none that he isn't trying to win over the center voters. He knows that by cheating, he will steal yet another election from the rightful winner. Gerrymandering legal? Russian interference again? Trump will be re-elected by the same means he got into the White House in the first place, and I don't believe there's a thing we can do about it. America is doomed.
2
A lot of people are missing the great troll job of this column which is that this Op-Ed page mainly takes the opposite stance (how Dems are "losing" the center). So nice to see actual polling support the idea that the policies of the party, that has won the popular vote every time but once since 1988, are supported by a large part of the populace.
1
Everyone I know who is a moderate democratic is voting for President Trump vs. any socialist democrat. They have wised up and these same people do not want to part with their $.
9
You have to know that we're dealing with a mobster and thief?
All he's been trying to do is create confusion because that not only fulfills his foreign commitments to Russia and Saudi Arabia (along with moves to increase fossil fuel consumption) but provides so much smoke that with just a few mirrors, the heist of the century can proceed.
The tax bill, well that was an obvious scam and they can total their take by how quickly the debt balloons when you're having fun doing the wishes of your 'base.'
I predict that Trump won't leave office in an orderly manner but rather rather unexpectedly in a surprise move to a country that won't extradite him.
That said, and in understanding of the thief's agenda, worsening health caused by climate disruptions continue to create chaos and with that chaos, comes a big killing where the possessions/money/dreams of the masses become these criminal's easy pickings.
To me, the only way to avoid this contrived, manipulated future is to arrest the guy and perp-walk him into history... which is looking less and less a likelihood.
I think it is this realization that motivates Speaker Pelosi; she can't see him leaving office, especially if you impeach and fail to convict.
To Trumpers, this is but another norm left to lay in a ditch and die while they pillage the body politic for gold leaf with which to adorn their cheap furniture.
We could pray for providence to remove him from office over the objections of the evangelicals.
Trump is not trying to win. He is counting on the Democrats to lose the 2020 presidential election. Meanwhile, Democrats are counting on Trump to lose it. One of them may be right.
3
The reason is simple: the Plutocratic Plunderers who buy elections don't want what's good for the country or popular with a majority of voters. They want whatever puts more money in their pockets. It was the wealthy donors, more than Trump, who drove the 2017 tax scam legislation. Trump. along with his Republican buddies in Congress, just do their bidding.
Trump doesn't need to court the center. He has his loyal base and help from foreign dictators. All signs are Trump will not hesitate to rig the election to win at all costs. Has Trump done anything to prevent future election interference? Om the contrary, he has encourage it.
1
Why isn't he going for the center? He'll lose if he does. His base loves his extreme policies and will abandon him if he moderates.
In that context, his base strategy makes perfect sense. Indeed, I'd argue it's his only path to reelection. Jamelle forgets a key factor: 2016 proved the national popular vote is increasingly irrelevant. All that matters is the electoral college.
Not enough attention has been paid to the 2016 results and their broad implications for the future.Trump got just under 46 percent of the popular vote -- more than a full percentage point less than Romney in 2012 -- but still walked away with 304 electoral votes, a comfortable victory. No president absent a strong third party challenger has ever won office with so little of the popular vote.
The lesson is you can lose the popular vote by a wide margin and still get elected president The only question is how far could the two vote totals diverge. Can you win with 44 percent of the national popular vote? 42 percent? Even less? Theoretically yes. Trump and his campaign understand this and are clearly planning to cede the national popular vote to try to pull off another victory the electoral college. To achieve that, they must focus on turning out the base, especially in certain key states and regions.
Politics is very simple: You do what works until it doesn't. What Trump did last time worked, so it makes perfect sense for him to try to do it again. He may well succeed.
2
The more extreme 45 is, the more "extreme" his opponent will likely be. If that divides the electorate in half, he wins—thanks to all the same factors as in 2016, and likely more.
"His self-proclaimed “massive landslide” rests on a thin margin of victory handed to him by liberals in just three states."
There, fixed that for you.
1
@Mike ...and by a foreign enemy country.
Perhaps a more relevant question is why at 90% of the Democratic Presidential candidates have given up on appealing to the Centre - with free healthcare for undocumented workers, largely open border (or very close to it), free universal college education, some even banning a private health care option - etc. etc. These are hardly centrist views - but they are the views that the Democratic leaders are almost ALL espousing.
Why have they abandoned the centre?
12
I’ve been a registered Democrat my entire adult life. I’ve always considered myself center left. I’ve donated to Democrat campaigns locally and nationally. I will not be voting Democrat in 2020. Trump knows the center will default to him. He doesn’t need to campaign earnestly to win my vote. While I agree that he’s repugnant, at least he’s not a intersectional socialist. He wins my vote by default. I’ll hold my nose while voting, but at the moment I’ve determined that the Left is a bigger threat to my future than a cartoon character naturally constrained by the Constitution.
10
I think you are optimistic to believe he is constrained by the Constitution
8
And you don't think a Democratic candidate will be constrained by the Constitution? I'm not for open borders, but I know that any president who desires such a thing will have to contend with Congress and the courts. Trump is a malignant narcissist and habitual liar who flaunts his contempt for rules and law. He's aided in his misdeeds by a sycophantic GOP. He has no checks on the damage he's inflicting on our reputation, our relationships with our allies, and our nation. At least even an "intersectional socialist" will be held in check while they attempt to at least address serious issues like affordable healthcare and climate. The same can't be said for Trump.
2
Missing the obvious point, despite it shining through all the statistics. Sure 54% of voters say they wouldn't vote for Trump.
But as the article points out, 54% of voters didn't vote for him last time, and he still got elected.
His focus last time around was 100% on winning the Electoral College. I've worked with EC and registered voter data, and he could win the election with as little as 35% of the popular vote, if that 35% is from the right combination of states.
Anyone who thinks Trump is unlikely to get re-elected wasn't paying attention last time around.
25
This piece addresses something that should be talked about more thoroughly, which is the disconnect between the populist economic message Trump ran on and how he has actually governed. His central economic achievement, the Trump Tax Cut, was merely a wealth transfer to the wealthy with minimal aid for middle class and low income Americans. Despite his unorthodox personality, Trump follows orthodox Republican belief in trickle-down economics. It's likely Obama defeated Romney in the rust belt because he campaigned hard on a message of economic populism. That's the energizing message a Dem candidate needs to get over the threshold in the electoral college. There is broad agreement among a diverse set of voters that the economy is still rigged towards the top. The central case Democrats need to make against Trump is that he has only contributed to this inequality, even as he campaigned on fixing it.
5
Pundits are proclaiming Trump's ascent to 44% approval as certain proof of his oncoming victory. The message from Republicans and the media is clear: Trump doesn't need to win the people over. As long as he has a third of us, the built-in Republican advantage will carry them to victory. As Trump proudly proclaimed, he doesn't think he needs to reach beyond the base. He doesn't need to offer us the things he was offering in 2016. Now he can just run as an old-fashioned Republican, with no policies to speak of except cutting taxes, putting brown people into camps and giving his approval while Iran and North Korea become nuclear-armed states.
If he drops the immigration issue that led Republicans to defeat in 2018, and if he keeps a laser-like focus on the economy, his chances are good. But he won't.
1
Trump does not need to "Win the Center" the Dems are winning them for him. Their far Left Progressivism is sending the moderates (who dislike Trump) over to his side. It is not hard for moderates to choose between a guy they don't like and a party who offers healthcare to illegal immigrants while those same moderates can't afford their own. For moderates a good economy is important, moderates care about their paychecks which will dwindle under socialism. The "Middle" detests Identity politics and grievance culture which has become normative to the Dems platform. The Dems race to the Left has alienated the center thoroughly.
11
Every time a so-called moderate or centrist tries to lecture me about "electability", it takes a lot of self-restraint not to laugh in their face. How many of these people stayed home in 2016 because they didn't like either candidate? How many of them actually went out and voted for Trump? More than would admit it, I bet.
If Trump wins in 2020, it won't be because Democrats went "too far left"-it's their job to go left, they represent that end of the American political spectrum). It will be because of spoiled, entitled moderates who will have made the decision to have 4 more years of Trump. Instead of demanding that the left bend to the will of centrists, maybe they should extend that appeal to the GOP- they're the ones in power, after all.
1
@Greg I am one of those "moderates" and the Dems have Left me behind. If you (far leftists) demand we bend to the will of Progressives, we will do what we did in the last election.... vote for Trump.
5
This is not about policy or programs for this President, except for dissolving everything his predecessor Pres. Obama either did or aspired to achieve.
For Trump it is about adulation and a fanatical following of the type we've seen in certain dictatorships. If this president has been compromised by foreign interests, or has things to hide he has even less incentive to change. It might bring about disastrous revelations, if his creditors or holders of secrets feel his course has changed.
So, this comes down to a different question. Facing an election Democrats should lose by all historical precedents
(incumbency; good economy) now made competitive by the awfulness of Trump, will our party succumb to the circular firing squad?
Will we listen to the majority of registered Democrats and persuadable independents (and some suburban GOP women) or the Gang of Four types and their small but loud (and media obsessed) activist coterie? The latter I'm convinced would rather lose than compromise or moderate. Trump can't win with only his own base but Democrats can lose.
2
No need for Trump to move so fast.
In the battle for the center, the Dams conceded a lot of ground to Trump during the last two debates. All Trump had to do was sit back and watch as his poll numbers hit their highest point since he became President.
I'm sure that he is waiting for the next series of debates and then - sooner or later - he may pitch a few warm and fuzzies to lure the independents/undecided who may be getting jittery about the Dems' far reaching proposals.
2
@Mike Edwards it was one poll that saw him get to 44% and still had him losing to Biden by 10.
1
@Natty b
Thank you.
Trump has now pulled level with all the other Dem candidates - without him doing a thing. They did it to themselves. Kamala Harris even trashing Joe Biden - when she has the policy on busing as Joe did i
n the 70s.
Go Joe - and let's keep listening to Nancy Pelosi. She'll guide us through the next big Trump "win" - the Mueller appearance before Congress.
I write fiction for a living, but I see a real-world scenario emerging here.
Trump will spend the next sixteen months whipping his base into a hate-frenzy, and the last few weeks preparing them for him to be defeated by a "rigged" election.
Defeated, he will have more than two months to organize a coup, backed up by the kind of people with badges and guns who posted on that private Facebook group, and by the people in the military who wear his face on patches sewn on their uniforms, the people who crowd around him to get his signature on their MAGA hats.
He knows that, once out of office, he will be prosecuted and jailed. So he's not going anywhere. Whatever it takes.
2
Indeed you are an excellent fiction writer!
1
Maybe it's because he has been assured by Vlad that he will get outside help again.
6
@Diane, trump knows what we don't or what we only suspect, and what the democratic leadership is afraid to acknowledge. You are 100% right-- he doesn't need that much help from vlad in such a polarized country, just the shove in 3-4 states will do it nicely. This is why the dems need to focus on voter registration, voter turnout, voter enthusiasm (not blind idolatry ala trump or the reverse side of the coin, Bernie) and monitoring election sites and polls. We must turn over all rocks to see what is hidden in plain sight-- and remember, the GOP must cheat to win federal elections. They just don't have the numbers to do it honestly.
3
The centre does not want the US to become the only country in the world with open borders. Even the countries of origin of the people crossing the Rio Grande do not have open borders.
11
Surely you jest Mr. Bouie...
Those of us that have known "the Donald"(as he preferred to be called back then) for 40 years or so, can tell you that he will do no such thing.
He has to completely remove any vestige of the Obama presidency. Obama publicly humiliated him at the White House Press Dinner and the one thing Donald never forgets or forgives is anything he perceives as humiliating.
It is part of the reason he connects with his base so readily, most of whom feel humiliated as they're described as "undesirables" or living in "fly over states".
Coupled with his life long tendencies toward bigotry, he swill not let "Obamacare" stand or do anything to aid it, nor compromise on immigration..he simply can't.
3
The reason Trump doesn't bother to appeal to the middle is easy, he doesn't have to. The reason is simple, as was shown in 2016 he can appeal to 'his base', the 42% of the people, because they are concentrated in the areas that exploit the fundamental, non democratic nature of our election system, and they vote in numbers, not to mention that gamed electoral system in those states.
More importantly, he is counting on the fact that some people in the center, despite finding him repugnant, will either not vote at all, or will vote for him, based on 'personal issues'. Those personal issues might be they think they are going to do well financially under Trump, or could be simply like with Hillary, they voted for Trump because they hated her.....and he is counting on the fact that those in the middle will more likely not vote then vote against him, in other words.
The other thing is he doesn't need the middle because the people who should be voting and aren't, don't bother to vote either. The reality is even if Trump turns off centrist voters enough to get them to vote Democratic, the lack of participation of black, hispanic and young voters likely will offset that loss by not voting.Put it this way, if young people, blacks and hispanics voted in any kind of numbers, Trump would have crashed and burned, but they didn't, large percentages didn't both to vote because they ignored the threat Trump was, and will do the same thing again.
6
He is not trying to win the center because putin never had too
1
Psst...Don't give Trump any ideas about how to win more votes. If he reads this piece, he may try harder. Oh, yeah...why worry? He doesn't read anyway?
2
Trump loves his rallies with a convention center of rabid supporters cheering whatever he says. And he will not jeopardize this by drifting towards the center, even sabotaging his re-election.
2
And the Mercers, Kochs and Chamber of commerce are sitting out 2020
2
"He is trapped in a bubble, unable to see the facts: that a large majority of Americans support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants"
A path to citizenship? That's not what the survey you point to asked. It asked about, for "some" people, a path to legal residence. Not citizenship. Legal residence. Big, huge difference.
Second, if you study the survey on the other items, you will conclude one thing: Mr. Trump will get re-elected.
Of course, the tenor of your article is the opposite.
10
Trump does not need to be center. As long as the Democrats adhere to their stance on immigration - free healthcare for all, mostly open borders - the GOP will win hands on. Trump knows that all too well.
8
Trump doesn't have to win the voters who reject(ed) him. He will have a more committed group of electors to come out for him than any the Dems can attract to the polls. Dems will also be judged for their fecklessness in dealing with Trump, as Pelosi politics has no pulse.
So many people seem worried about the supposed "extreme" leftist views of the Democratic candidates going too far. The thing is, yes, they probably lean a little further left than what is sensible to most American's, but their ambitions will be curbed when it's time to actually enact their policies. There will be negotiations, compromises and deals. If Bernie or Warren wins the presidency, it's not as though day one they will bring bus loads of people up from Guatemala to California and hand them medical cards and free admission slips to UC Berkley.
I would rather have a candidate whose ideals are in the right place. One who wants to do something NOW about climate change. One who wants to grow the middle class, raise education, fight for equality and families rights, and treat every human decently, whether they flip burgers, pick strawberries or clean houses. Let's focus on getting a candidate who cares, and then work on policy from there.
2
Donald Trump did everything, or almost everything right in 2015-16, to win the presidency. From the day of his inauguration, he did almost everything wrong so far. (He had a great chance to be a great president, if he had done a few things differently) But my fear is that he may still win. Democrats as usual or often mess up, unfortunately.
2
Other than less punative border policies, I do sincerely believe many moderates would indeed lean towards Trump with the balance of your ideas. Having said that, it is not Trump who needs to move towards the Center for votes, not be a LONG shot. The Democrats are shredding perhaps the best chance they will ever have to take back the WH and make Trump a one term President. Now that you have insightfully discussed what Trump needs to do in order to attract Moderates, can you please discuss Reparations, Cancelling all Student Debt, Free College, Open Borders, Green New Deal, cancelling 80% of Americans Health insurance (thats working just fine thank you) in favor of Medicare for all, gun rights (yes and gun wrongs), Giving Illegal immigrants universal health care when citizens paying taxes do not even have it....... Sometimes meeting in the middle is a good thing, sometimes, we are just circling the drain.
14
@NYer If any of these things you described remotely resembled the proposals of any of the leading Democratic candidates in any way, the Democrats might be in trouble.
2
He won't have to do anything except hold onto his base because the Democrats are more disunited than ever and are likely to remain so.
Bernie's base is just as loyal as Trump's and just as inflexible but he's the prime mover in the Democratic Party whether or not he becomes the candidate. Despite what Bret Stephens wrote about Biden looking "feeble" during the debate, Bernie is the one who looked fried and he may drop out if he falls far enough behind in the polls setting up a three-person race.
The Democratic perpetual outrage machine is already doing a number on Biden and he may not survive. Then it's on to Harris who's not a socialist and is not in favor of eliminating private medical insurance, two key indicators of "the politics of respectability." Once the Bernie bros learn about her prosecutorial record it'll be enough of an excuse to back Warren and she'll become the candidate.
1
@LS Bernie is pretty much history. He's happy sitting in the "yesterday's news" pile with Beto. He was only competitive in 2016 because he was running against Hillary of all people. Trump may discover the same was true for him. The 2018 results speak for themselves.
1
The flaw in any plan to lure moderates into voting for Trump is quite glaring: every moderate gained is at least one member of his base lost, most likely more. The data are consistent about the inelasticity of Trump’s support. He knows it. He’s stuck. His only real hope is to face either Hillary Clinton again and that’s not going to happen, or Joe Biden. If the the Democrats think Harris made mincemeat out of Biden, just wait until Trump gets a shot at him. It won’t be pretty.
1
Yes if iDJT were a normal, sane person he would do those things. Fortunately for us he really has no idea what he's doing beyond making his small crowds cheer for him. He's going to drive all reasonable people away from him.
Donald Trump can't win the center because the center isn't a bunch of racist, morally bankrupt individuals who condone, or are willing to overlook, sexual assault, lies, treason, obstruction, self-dealing, and the mental and physical abuse of innocent children, for one.
1
What a foolish question. Trump is the center what war is to peace
1
You can't please right-wing Fascist extremists and the center at the same time - that's why.
"Why isn't Trump trying to win the enter?"
Because he doesn't need to.
A critical mass of poorly educated citizens who cannot be bothered to read or think critically, who now rely on Rupert Murdoch's puppet show on Fox News for their information, now exists in the United States. For them, democracy and individual rights are abstract concepts that have little meaning and they willingly trade them to have their conservative social views validated and enforced on the entire population, e.g., repeal of Roe vs. Wade, repeal of legalization and recognition of gay and lesbian marriages, etc., They have been trained to believe that central government is the enemy, lurking in the dark shadows patiently waiting to take their guns and their "civil rights" away. Their heroes are David Koresh and the conflagration at Waco, Cliven Bundy and his clan, Randy Weaver and Ruby Ridge.
Can't afford basic health care? Can't afford to send your children to quality, accredited 4-year colleges and universities? Can't afford to save 5 to 10% of your meager weekly or monthly salary to provide for a retirement not spent in poverty? No big deal, as long as my neighbor cannot have a legal abortion.
Donald Trump is not an aberration or a one-time phenomenon. He is an accurate reflection of what the United States has become and the Democratic Party is too splintered to present a coherent, viable alternative to Donald Trump's chaos and dictatorship.
12
The truth is Trump has no relationship anywhere in his life to moderation. The middle of anything is impossible for him to fathom.
1
@DlphcOracl
On the contrary. The House is Democratic and the WH will be also in 2020.
1
Everyone said Trump would lose last time. Everyone said he lost every debate. He didn't listen, didn't go to the center, never acted "Presidential", never changed.
You cite poll after poll. They were wrong last time. I see polls every day on cable TV, and never an explanation of why they were wrong and how they were fixed.
I personally want to see things like universal heath care, not because they poll well, but because it is the right thing to do. Don't hold your breathe waiting for Trump to change.
3
@Jerry S
Do the polls reflect the outcome of the popular vote? If so, then they were correct in 2016.
1
His approval rating is now just a few points underwater. He is trying for illegal immigration change, backing Israel, challenging China, reducing black and Latino unemployment, and trying to negotiate with North Korea. He stands for free speech on campus and against the fascocuturalist left. Sounds pretty centrist in the face of a Democratic Party that wants to give free healthcare to illegal immigrants, have the border patrol stand-down, and reistitute forced busing. He is an absolute awful human being being with whom I would never eat dinner, but I'm not voting for Dear Abby. I am voting for president.
6
@O'Brien it's 10 points underwater and if you think he's negotiating with North Korea then I fear for the next time you go to buy a car
1
He doesn’t stand for free speech on campus or anywhere else. He stands for speech he likes and against speech he doesn’t. Someone who calls the press the enemy of the people is no friend of free speech. He is, as you say, an awful human being, but you clearly think that doesn’t matter.
You think the effects of his personal corruption (refusing to divest his business interests), his denigration of American institutions (FBI, press, courts, etc.) on no other grounds than that they do not conform to his will, his pettiness, his contempt for expertise, his engendering of hatred against whom ever opposes him, his attempts to politicize relatively apolitical areas of government (Federal Reserve, military, Economic Research Service, etc.), and so on don’t matter. Perhaps you think they will have no practical effects.
Policy does matter. Most of the time it matters most. Most of the time, that’s all I would vote on. But if it came in the form of someone whose awfulness takes such public forms, then I would believe there were worse things than bad policy. I would believe that rewarding awfulness will encourage more of it.
If Trump is a master of anything it's in making all observation, consternation and conversation revolve around him. Not a day goes by there isn't something new for the pundits to ponder.
And so they do. Exclusively.
Last November the voters sent a large clue-by-four to the GOP. The new house majority has been a burr under Trump's saddle since January. Meanwhile, deafening silence from the Senate in opposition to Trump policy and limited media attention for his chief enabler, Mitch McConnell.
Voting Trump out in 2020 will be a 'yooge' improvement but as long as the GOP controls the Senate there will be tortured toddlers in Texas. Look for the big picture. Eyes on the prize. America can do better than this.
BTW: Real Men / Real Americans don't abuse the defenseless then brag about it on Facebook. CBP needs a major attitude adjustment starting at the top and relying on the GOP to resolve the situation is a cruel joke.
The only way Trump and the Republicans can win in 2020 is to cheat. Given how they have completely politicized and radicalized the Supreme Court, the Senate, the Executive Branch and the Justice Department (run by a political hack of the first order), it is not difficult in the least seeing them win by cheating. God help our disappearing democracy. It’s no wonder that Trump and the Republicans have absolutely no interest these days in human rights, either in America or in the rest of the world. They prefer ruthless and murderous dictators. They represent true evil which is alive and well in today’s America.
1
The premise of this piece is just wrong.
The center, to the extent that one exists wants to see limits on illegal immigration, and does not support offering further incentives, like government funded healthcare, for those coming into the US illegally.
The center does not see that the US has necessarily benefited, or continues to benefit from trade deals that send our manufacturing base to China and Mexico.
The center similarly questions (as Bernie Sanders did in 2016, along with Trump) why the US military needs to be policeman to the world to the degree that it is, at tremendous expense to the US in terms of blood and treasure.
Sadly, the premise of this piece speaks volumes about where this paper believes (erroneously) the center to be, a misperception that is likely to further alienate readers as 2020 approaches, and raise the odds that Trump is re-elected.
9
His ultimate goal is and has always has been a TrumpTV channel. A 40 rating is really good in TV land. Losing in 2020 gets him there faster, and he has aggrieved audience angry about losing the election. My prediction is his next campaign manager will be Vince McMahon because he really understands these kinds of things.
2
All Trump cares about is winning, by whatever means necessary (we've already seen many of the illegal tactics being used). As soon is Trump is no longer President, indictments are going rain down from NY state, likely to be followed by a few federal ones as well.