Living on hope involves an ounce or two of belief to be worthwhile. Trump operates void of principle based on willful ignorance. Hope absent any reason to believe in productive outcomes. We are in a survival mode. Can we make it past 2020 when a Democrat wins and can rewind and begin anew treating Trump as an aberration? No apology tour. Just a policy upheaval to restore our values and heal relationships around the globe.
Treading water a bitter pill but necessary. Our road to redemption begins with the end of Trumpism.
4
I see that another Trump flunkey who pushed through changes in the clean air regulations that favor the coal industry is leaving because of an ethics investigation. Hmmm? Me thinks any sort of coherent planning for the future by this administration is delusional. Toxic masculinity is the only thing guiding this bunch of dinosaurs.
4
How quick we forget. Very wise comment.
My hope and prayer is our RICO suave president is a one hit wonder and is indicted and imprisoned come 2021.
4
"..... without a plan on how to sync up all of President Trump’s competing foreign policy objectives."
Are you kidding us, Mr. Friedman? "ALL of competing foreign policy objectives"? There are only three foreign policy objective for Mr. Trump and they rather sync up well:
1. Reverse whatever president Obama has done both domestically and in foreign affairs to wipe out all accomplishments of the first black president;
2. Increase your re-election chances by creating problems with other countries, then reverse yourself and claim you fixed the problem and you achieved a major victory;
3. Take foreign policy steps that make people with a lot of money (e.g. prince Mohamed Bin Salman) very happy, to ensure that, after leaving the White House, you and your family will be princely (pun intended) rewarded.
6
Putin's president is doing a bang-up job, huh?
Friedman's got analytical skills but man, when he strides into normative territory his ol skool blinders come on. The Trump Party is no longer the GOP of old; the sooner we fully appreciate this the better.
We better be prepared to hang on, people. It's gonna get a lot worse way before it gets any better.
3
Thoughts:
Trump does not plan. That’s why he hires the likes of Roy Cohn. Schemes and business doctrines of lie, sue and hide behind bankruptcy are not really "plans”.
China is going to use US educated engineers and US ideas, purchased, if possible, stolen, if not, to eat our lunch this century. 'The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.' Vladimir Ilich Lenin
4
Trumph doesn t want a war he want to be reelected so he need support in short time view with 2 actions:
first from inside and for that it is better to give chrismas gift to israel than to Iran,
secondely he need to create an atmosphere of good situation for US economy so he have started to be bad with China and Europe to win short term good economic indicators
that the only think inside the head of your president he is a simple business man my dear US citizen
There's no denying that Trump found leverage on both China and Iran and then wasn't afraid to use it the way past Presidents have been. And I think Friedman is being naive when saying that Iran would change from within and they should be kept from a bomb for 30 yrs instead of 15. The people will be repressed and the hard liners will retain the levers of power over that time. By choking off the oil NOW, Trump is ending that regime slowly. He likely plans on going in and picking up the pieces after the descent downward hits bottom.
2
@No big deal
You seem to have forgotten about China and Russia.
The world is a little more complicated than you suggest.
1
One man's aging narrow minded cleric is another man's freedom fighter.
I don't like theocracy and I count many Iranians among my friends.
There are two countries I fear. One is my own and the other is the USA.
Canada is at war with Saudi Arabia and it is a non shooting war which will never be resolved by armed conflict because it is about ethics and values not property.
The other war is Canada's internal conflict which really threatens our peace order and government. We have just about the highest standard of living in the world. Our internal conflict of how much of our ethics and values are we willing to sacrifice to maintain our relationship with the USA.
6
45 does have defined plans and goals: Whatever comes up in response to his throwing monkey-wrenches and undermining sane, diplomatic relations with global partners and fellow nation states.
Plans and goals are normally defined, but then again no one is accusing 45 of normalcy. His "normal" is abnormal.
1
So Mr. Friedman "will give Trump credit for one thing: He has imposed real pain on Iran — virtually choking off all of its oil production through sanctions — and on China — with $250 billion of tariffs on its exports to the U.S." May I add one more: and a huge import tax on the American consumers to the tune of 15-25% tax on the $250 billion of tariffs.
Mr. Friedman also said: "If Trump is smart". Now that is an interesting if. Is being a wise guy, a bully the same as smart? If yes then Trump is certainly smart. If not, well, what a question.
"Trump should invite Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China" to do what? He has basically announced to the world that he has no use for Britain, France, Germany; that he is subservient to Putin's Russia, and that China is the enemy despite his professed "friendship" with Xi Jinping. with a group like that together what is he going to ask them to help him do? To beg for a meeting with the mullas in Iran?
3
Sorry, but you lost me at "If Trump is smart..."
5
No experience, no team, no insight, no ability to build trust with allies -- heck, no allies.
He is our nation's drunk uncle, pontificating from a stool at the end of the bar, offering simple solutions to complex problems. He does not realize that threats and pain are not a strategy.
(And here's the worst part: Trump can't phone-a-friend in this situation because he hates the one man who could help him -- Mr. Obama. We are doomed.)
5
No wonder Trump ordered his person fixer lawyer Cohen to threaten Trump's schools with disclosing his grades as we can see he has trouble making a coherent statement about any issue. Issuing insulting tweets about war heroes inciting race baiting lying constantly filled with bluster to get attention. Trump will leave our country bankrupt like his companies and without allies and empowering dictators around the world as he wants to be one. Ignorant and erratic Trump has pulled out of treaties on a whim and contradicts himself no country would trust any deal he makes ,he has destroyed our country's reputation around the world just as his benefactor Putin had wanted.
1
You’ve said it all. Most intelligent Americans understand how scary this man is to the future. He could drop a bomb on either country when he’s showing off to the base. What I simply cannot fathom is why he is allowed to remain president when he would be fired from McDonald’s on his first day. Why, why is no one doing anything to get rid of him as president. Never in my 60 years could I believe this could happen.
5
DJT only knows bully, bluster, and bravado. It worked for him when it came to stiffing small contractors but it doesn't work in international diplomacy. He has no idea how to perform in this arena and has never given any indication that he does.
3
Pretty weird comment "he has imposed real pain on Iran". Trump has done everything possible to remove any influence of the US on Iran. Probably the same is true for China. Is this article just a wish to find something positive in Trumps chaotic international efforts. All I see happening is Trump working hard to give Iran as much motivation as possible to further their place as an international pariah. That way he can get them to do some really horrible things and then retaliate.
1
If Iran and China are smart, which they are, they will ally with each other against us.
3
@turbot
But, they are already!
Iran supplies China with oil - about 20% of Iran's entire production. China supplies Iran with nuclear know-how, gas centrifuges and so on.
This has been going on for at least a decade. I doubt either country is particularly concerned with US sanctions on this friendship.
Trump is the Mel Brooks character in Blazing Saddles. Given a map and a Marine rifle squad, he couldn’t find “Persia” on a map. The immediate festering problem is in Central America. He didn’t need to stir the pot in Iran or throw rocks at our bank of last resort in China. This “only I can fix this”, is going to get a lot of people killed. The border, the border, the border!!! Yes, and the root cause is in this hemisphere. Does he simply believe he can leave something in the punch bowl and simply walk away? Apparently!
You say "wisely pulled back" of Trump. How about dropping "wisely," considering the rest of your column. Nothing about our foreign policy seems wise right now.
2
"If Trump is smart" ?
False premise.
2
There's only one column on foreign policy that ever needs being written about the Trump administration: Do Nothing. Please -- do nothing.
This White House is not capable of executing a policy. Just shut up, sit there, and pray (along with the rest of us) that there's no true crisis that requires actual action.
Name a single action Trump has taken in the world that has not made things worse. Take as long as you want.
3
I think Mr. Friedman is imbuing Mr. Trump with tactics and strategy that he doesn’t possess in an attempt to minimize his anxiety about how risky the President’s behavior is.
80
@Loki Might secretly like any policy that Bibi Netanyahu would also like. Based on his original pro Iraq War mongering. Yeah Thomas we haven’t forgotten.
3
I had my Amtrak job cut last year. I just recently bought an inexpensive Chinese made Toshiba A/C window unit from Home Depot on the little credit I have left. I'm sure that price will go up soon! We have lost so many good paying jobs in this country, only partially made up by the cheap China goods peddled by Walmart, et al.. Now Trump wants to punish us for the Chinese economic windfall that most Americans were brainwashed into believing was a "made in the USA" retail answer to their economic survival.
91
@Jim Woods The well paying jobs going forward all require hi tech (re)training. Please consider getting a subsidized online training/ education to move forward. What's the alternative?
3
@cfb, even citizens of export powerhouse Germany and other European countries are creating backlash with the rise of neo-fascists. The neo-liberals knew what would happen--Ross Perot told us so years ago--they just didn't care. If Mr. Woods is in middle age, high-tech training will not benefit him--it is a race to the bottom. Even training in the trades will present him with younger competition. At middle age, one better be successfully self-employed in a younger person's gig world. Under-the-table handy man work will sustain one until a better opportunity presents itself. Perhaps turning a hobby of refurnishing antiques/upholstery/woodworking into a viable career.
3
@sj
"Under-the-table handy man work will sustain one until a better opportunity presents itself."
It does a lot more than that. A good handyman dos not even need to risk working under the table. He can earn a six figure income being legit. My handyman is always fully booked at least 60 days out.
6
"I will give Trump credit for one thing: He has imposed real pain on Iran...” Why does Mr. Friedman regard this as a good thing?
26
The US with its allies and adversaries has struck a deal with Iran the we single handedly broke. Why would Iran, or any one else enter into a new deal with zero guarantee that the US would resume imposing sanction if it finds Iran's behavior not to its liking. Iran can simply hope that a reversal in US policy may occur with a Democratic victory in 2020 and hunker down for another 18 month.
As far as the China containment policy is concerned, the US should have no problem meeting China head on with our still vastly superior R&D infrastructure, augmented by additional investment partnering with our industry. The spying and IP theft of our research rewards must be drastically curtailed- we have been very sloppy at preventing it.
My view is that China's surveillance policy, lack of personal freedoms and the resulting conformality of its society has hurt its ability to be truly innovative, i.e. thinking out of the box. None of major discoveries in the last two centuries in the physical sciences have been made by wholly Chinese educated scientist working in China. Four Chinese born physicists received the Nobel in physics (none in Chemistry), but all were educated in the US (3) or UK (1) and received their prize for work done in the West. China is outstanding in engineering, but generally on innovations discovered or invented in the West. Based on our post WWII investments in R&D, which attracted the best talent in the world, I see no problem with us taking on China and winning.
2
The problem for Iran is that they do not have a reliable negotiating party in President Trump. Other countries like Germany or France who might be able to help with negotiations have the same issue. How far out on a limb would they go to help a completely unpredictable character like Trump?
1
Friedman’s comments are sensible but he does not understand Trump.
Trump’s methods are simple, stir things up, insult people, back out of deals and generally disrupt whatever he can and then when the resulting disorder and chaos reach a peak, seek whatever advantage he can find. It is a free wheeling, get what you can strategy that is strongly unsuited to long range planning or precisely defined goals - which is why Trump never has any. Trump’s supporters understand and applaud him because his approach to life is similar to their own, get what you can for yourself and your family and damn the consequences for anyone else. But this kind of ad-hoc, winner take all strategy in a world arena where success hinges on the ability to form alliances and have a clear direction is a recipe for disaster. There may be short-term wins, certainly, but without an overarching framework they will be irrelevant and short lived, adding up to nothing.
Tom you say "If Trump is smart", you know like the rest of us that he is not. So the rest of your essay falls flat. I seriously doubt that if you placed a transcript of it in front of his nose he could not read it and or comprehend it. In a word we are "screwed".
1
Why would anybody sign up to a new nuclear deal with Iran?
I mean, a new one that can be torn up on a whim by any American president, present or future?
Let's be clear, the 2015 JCPOA deal was a multilateral agreement, sunk unilaterally by one signatory, entirely against the wishes of all the other signatories.
4
Trump is a survivor, shallow but canny. Let's not ignore the possibility that that the brink-of-war followed by restraint in all a choreographed exercise to established his supposed prudence. And all in preparation for him to come dramatically to the end of his patience and start an armed conflict just before primaries so he can call for as all to unite behind him in patriotism, and denounce critics as unpatriotic if not traitors.
As Samuel Johnson once nailed it, "patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel" and Trump is running out of refuges.
25
@A Burton
He may be running out of refuges, but it's refugees he's got running.
1
@A Burton amazing alaysis
“China ... forced technology transfers from companies doing business there ... .”
“Forced” is too strong a word. Companies could have resisted, knowing they were impairing long-term prospects for the sake of short-term profits. They could have banded together, through technical and business organizations; they might have tried to enlist the assistance of their governments (horrors!).
However, no such actions seem even to have been contemplated, as the West and Japan underestimated Chinese technological ingenuity and also (especially in the US) clung to economic Friedmanism.
But these are among the measures that need to be contemplated today, lest China, unopposed, continue its divide and dominate strategies.
1
When I spoke of “economic Friedmanism”, I referred to Milton Friedman, not Thomas Friedman.
1
So naive, Tom.
First off, name three times that that the country benefited materially from a president acting a "little crazy."
Secondly, Trump's foreign policy is just about him soliciting bribes. After receiving a $500 million one from China (who are usually smarter than this) to withdraw the sanctions on ZTE, he wants to do it over and over again. Lest anyone forget: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/05/is-china-straight-up-bribing-donald-trump-zte. Similarly, KSA influences a bail-out of Kushner and Trump approves arms sales for that disgusting regime and goes to bat for them against Iran. https://www.ft.com/content/90d98374-3528-11e9-bb0c-42459962a812.
The erratic nature of his behavior directly affects the stock markets. Someone tipped in advance could make a fortune. Can't prove that this has happened, but we'd be silly to imagine that it hasn't .
Don't overthink this, Trump's foreign policy is just a way to turn a quick buck. If the asylum seekers had money, he'd tear down the border. Too bad for them.
2
Freidman has missed the boat on what may be the key mistake. Given a choice of good relations with Iran and the oil potentates (Saudi Arabia, UAE), the US has probably picked the wrong side. Iran didn't fund the biggest attack on the US in history.
2
During the Civil War Imperial Russia had a toehold in the Middle East ever since and longs to establish a stronghold there. Putin is playin Trump like a ten-penny whistle that he is.
Wikipedia tells us Moscow and Tehran are military allies in the conflicts in Syria and Iraq and partners in Afghanistan and post-Soviet Central Asia. Due to Western economic sanctions on Iran, Russia has become a key trading partner, especially in regard to the former's excess oil reserves. Militarily, Iran is the only country in Western Asia that has been invited to join the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia's own international treaty organization in response to NATO. Iran still purchases some weapons systems from Russia. In turn, Iran has helped Russia with its drone technology and other military technology. Iran has its embassy in Moscow and consulates in the cities of Astrakhan and Kazan. Russia has its embassy in Tehran, and consulates in Rasht and Isfahan.
Contents
1
Friedman underestimates the havoc Iran can wreak by disrupting the world's oil supply. True, US is number 1 but it is a global market, as Friedman has repeatedly told us and now, conveniently, forgets. Disrupting the Straits of Hormuz would cripple the global economy within months as oil prices would rise substantially for everyone. As for the Chinese, why does he conclude that the US should interfere with the Chinese plan to dominate their people through technology while he concludes that the US has no role in ending the dominance of the Mullahs in Iran? Political change in China will occur, or not, as the result of internal forces, not US meddling. And, what a fantasy life Friedman must have to imagine that Trump would seek the help of US allies to make another deal with Iran. He won't ask, the Europeans, Indians and Chinese have no incentive to help, and the Iranians would be crazy to believe anything sponsored by Trump. The fact is Trump has no strategy, no plan, and no goals. Everything he does is to gratify his adolescent ego. There is nothing behind anything Trump.
2
I think Mr. Friedman is trying to put the best spin he can in this abominable situation. I tend to agree with you, though because you can’t give this creep a quarter inch without him taking everything.
Iran and china helped each other out obviously. But the trump administration didn’t buy the bait.
"The big question is can the president be disciplined enough, patient enough and deft enough ..."
A rhetorical question, right?
1
Trump the Trasher has succeeded beyond expectations in damaging America's capacity to lead in the world. His lies mean he cannot be trusted and his ignorance of world history and American history mean his decisions are based on the few things in which he's consistent: getting his hands on money for himself and family (AKA corruption), feeling like a winner (AKA addiction to flattery), and malice, as if cruelty and yes-men followers demonstrate success, never mind the result. The world has learned that getting what it wants from America is about pleasing Trump and can include damage to the USA.
1
Trump loves chaos and it makes him the center of attention. His foreign policy is based on a tv reality show, we’re in a really dark period in America.
1
The effort to cloak Trump with some sort of intelligence and legitimacy is bound to fail. He only has vanity and an instinct for the cameras and his nasty fan base, along with hidebound prejudices and no fear of the evils of lies and cheating.
China is pragmatic. No amount of Trump's vanity project, supported by his enablers and punters of his cons, will make a positive dent in the world's geopolitics. It only helps China in its clever takeover of the world's resources.
Meanwhile, the planet's climate is going haywire, and millions are being added to the hordes of refugees from every kind of difficulty.
Trump's refusal to help these problems at their source, only inciting hatred for victims, is making things worse every day.
The earth will school its apex predator, and wisdom is in short supply. We are becoming more delusional and more wasteful by the day. This is no way to survive on a finite planet that has reached its limits.
It's enough to make people atheist the way these nasty people make god in their image, and no smiting results. Jesus was a man who set great store by compassion and stood up for the less fortunate. Anyone who thinks different should not be calling themselves Christian. More wealth to the wealthy and more power to the powerful, enabled by cheating and lies, is bound to backfire.
3
China is safe from an invasion by the United States - they have nukes. The Persians are not, but intend to be safe - so Iran is intent on getting nukes. I don't think 1945 is a correct call for pivotal year - 1939 is less incorrect.
Mr. Friedman's imperial analysis proceeds unquestioningly from the throne of an American might he imagines is still near infinite.
He writes as if all options and choices are still open, equally feasible, and available to us for the taking.
This imperial view, fantastically optimistic, recognizes not at all our decades-long decline in domestic and foreign strength; nor the increasing precariousness and financial desperation of the average American citizen.
Such recognition is far from being negative. It is the required grounding in reality before flying high on speculation and imaginary advise.
In foreign affairs, and regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, i.e., the Iran nuclear deal, I doubt very much we can just waltz back in again, still in the leadership role as he proposes, and just re-do the whole thing with our allies compliant and happy.
Iran will no longer deal with us and they have reason not to. And our allies trust us less than they did before, and also for good reason.
Then we have China, a giant who surpassed the United States in trade over a decade ago. We're going there and strong-arm them into some kind of "transformational" path we find convenient?
I, too, can go to Disneyland and pick all the rides and cotton candy I want. But the world is not Disneyland, even if youthful United States insists on behaving like a child.
oz.
5
Mr. Friedman: You said "If Trump is smart, he’ll quickly use his leverage to strike a limited deal with Iran." Why on earth would Iran be willing to strike any kind of a deal with the US? With Trump, the US has lost any credibility when it comes to commitments made by him or any president. It will be a long, slow slog to overcome the perception that America's word cannot be trusted on its commitments.
4
Why would Iran sign any agreement with the US at this point in time?
How are tariffs on Chinese goods affecting the products Trump has made in China? Will he move production to the US? And Ivanka?
3
why the hatred of iran?
if we want to obliterate iran then instead of invading or warfare, spend a few trillion converting the global economy over to solar electricity and solar cracked hydrogen/diesel.
poof no more oil exports.
however
if our true pupose in iran is to grab their 138 billion barrels of oil reserves and another 350 in venezuela and another 350 in saudi arabia, in order to charge monopoly rent to the world economy, still critically dependent on oil, then fire bolton pompeo and trump.
and then spend a trillion converting the world to solar as stated before.
4
"Trump should invite Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China -- our partners in the 2015 Obama-Iran nuclear deal that Trump tore up -- to join us in improving that deal with a simple offer: The U.S. will lift 0il sanctions if Tehran agrees to extend the restrictions on its ability to make a nuclear bomb …., and agrees to a ban on testing Iranian missiles that can reach beyond the Middle East."
WELL SAID, worth being brought immediately to our president's notice.
By using phrases such as "Trump takes on China and Persia" and "... two of world's oldest civilizations -- Persia and China -- …", you have unwittingly disregarded the sensitivities of about 50 % Iranians who are neither Persian nor Persian-speaking, e.g., the Turks (Azerbaijanis), Kurds, Arabs of southwest of Iran, Baluchs, Turkomans, Armenians and other small non-Persian Iranian groups. (As a Baluch originally from western, i.e., Iranian, Baluchistan, I am an Iranian American … and dislike to be called a 'Persian American'.
Raza Shah Pahlavi was wise enough -- and right -- to officially restore the historic name of the country, Iran, correcting the Greco-Biblical mistake perpetuated by the West.
3
Both China and Iran have gotten away with murder for years both figuratively and literally, they deserve a President like Trump. They had this coming.
Except we’re the ones who end up dead or worse. It won’t touch him. Get wise, please.
1
Tom, you're talking like there's a rational plan here by a rational person. Not! This is the same old stuff--move fast, break things, and to hell with the consequences. Baby Donnie being his sweet, lovable self.
trumps chinese tarriffs are driving US tech to relocate in china , NOT intended i bet.
who needs these destructive tarriffs?
if the pupose is to benefit cisco over huawei we could simply susidize cisco with federal cash or free solar electricity.
if the purpose is to prevent chinese backdoors in routers used to siphon all internet traffic then demand open source software on these devices.
if the general purpose is to protect US intellectual property then revive the TPP.
2
Let's not forget where Mr. Friedman was on our assault on Iraq and his belief, shared by many, that we would be looking now at a beautiful democracy there. How's that turned out?
8
Trump is squandering all of America’s good faith collateral built up over years and years of honest negotiations, strong alliances and stead fast moral authority. In a matter of two and one half years he has abused the power of the office of President to make America a second rate power and China is filling the vacuum left in his wake. The G20 will be very telling as to our current position among the world leaders. We may not longer be the big dog in the room.
Most important sentence in essay: "if trump is smart...."
What are the chances?
3
Trump will never have tightly defined goals or work with allies to achieve them, because his "brain is so big" and he's so "smart." His lack of respect for the experience and talent of others is what got us here. He claimed a tariff war was "easy to win." Yet we get deeper into tariffs that are costing Americans dearly, not the other countries he claims are paying them. As with everything else he does, Trump creates problems and then comes with "solutions" that are pretty much the previous status quo, claiming victory for himself.
1
Regarding Iran, the country is surrounded by 3 nuclear countries: Russia to the north, Pakistan (and India) to the east, and Israel to the west. Suppose US were faced with the same dilemma. For an insecure regime that has witnessed several regime changes engineered by the Western powers, nuclear power is its salvation. And they look at North Korea and see Kim Jung-un still enjoying power and taking pleasure being Trump's buddy.
suppose US was
8
perhaps the confusion in the goals of President Trump's foreign policy is not so hard to understand once you give up trying to impose the discipline of cogency on them and realize that all of Trump's efforts and policies are geared to one thing alone: getting a cheer out of his base. therefore, they don't have to hang together or have any internal logic. they are throwaway laughlines to appeal to a basically uninterested - but angry and alienated - subset of Americans who feel left behind and neglected by the actions of goverment and the sweep of history. Trump instinctively knows this andnknows how to say the things that will make this segment (and them alone) stand up and cheer. for Trump , if not the country, that is sufficient.
1
There are multiple deadly fevers currently infecting this planet -- the fevered relations of people within nations, the fevered relations of nations with other nations and the fever of the planet itself.
I see only one treatment which may help reduce the fevers and it's the opposite of what lies in the heart of Donald Trump (and way too many other humans). I increasingly believe that the patient is unlikely to survive without a major purgative.
I guess, though, that one can hope that the few who do survive will recognize there's a bit of Donald Trump in all of us and those survivors will have the brains and the heart to, in not purge, at least harness that part of human nature.
2
God save me from ever having anything trump in me.
Trump's treatment of Iran is entirely predicated on the man's jealousy and resentment of Obama. Hence the nuclear deal had to go, a move abetted by the hawkish Netanyahu, who similarly disliked Obama.
Now, Trump finds himself back to square one, with a supposed open door for Iranians to march to the negotiating table--on his terms. Of course, they will not come. The Persians are not only fiercely proud but they are also ruled by religious zealots whose principal ambition in life is to wage jihad against their Sunni opponents. Let us not forget that Khomeini, Khamenei's predecessor, did not hesitate to summarily execute anyone who disavowed his version of Islam. How could a threshold nucleus of educated, secular citizens tolerate this state of affairs?
What are the odds that any nuclear deal worked out will uncannily resemble its precursor--Obama's nuclear agreement--with an outside possibility of a slightly longer moratorium on nuclear proliferation?
Politically and psychologically, Trump's seeming maneuvering against Iran and China are rooted in the domestic scene and his cultivation of his base. China and Iran are both projected in Orientalist terms, the first as the reincarnation of the "Yellow Peril," the second as a land of irrational "holy warriors."
The one person Trump despises more than Obama is Hillary Clinton. It is his competitive envy of these two individuals that drives what passes as domestic and foreign policy.
3
It seems obvious to me that Mr. Trump actually thinks that his trade war with China is going to bring high-paying manufacturing jobs back to the United States and his supporters--strange, because none of the others of us of his generation believe that. As for Iran, yes he does also have a plan, to make himself look like a strongman, and to please his evangelical supporters. But he doesn't like war, hence is hitting the wall with following through on his promises.
1
This is a very good analysis of a broad scope of concerns. I think, though, that trying to approach China from the standpoint of American policies aiming to "transform" Chinese behavior is destined for disappointment. China is emerging as a great power, against the backdrop of Western predations against it during its period of critical weakness during the 19th century. While aspects of the Chinese Communist Party leadership are a break with the country's ancient traditions and culture, it's outward-facing policies really aren't. So, from the Chinese side, the "trade war" isn't fundamentally about trade; it's an element of a coherent set of policies aiming at establishing the preeminence of Chinese political, economic, military and to some extent cultural power, initially in Asia and ultimately throughout the world. And that is not in any way a change from it's long history; its ability to pursue that goal has varied over time, but its assumption that it deserves to achieve the goal has not. Dealing successfully with China will require that we maintain and project real economic and military power while negotiating as a peer, with both respect and subtlety. The idea that we can simply announce policies that will transform Chinese behavior belongs to an era that has passed. Of course, Friedman is correct in pointing out that Trump is phenomenally unsuited to the task.
1
Mr. Friedman enjoys writing smart, analytical pieces demonstrating his subtle knowledge of world affairs.
The whole exercise, however, is predicated on the assumption that Donald Trump knows “Persia” and “Iran” mean the same thing.
In short, a waste of time.
4
At least he’s trying. None of us have done anything to get rid of him.
the approach to China at this stage is actually - my view, 27 trips to China and in business there for 5 years - excellent. But do we have the depth and skill in this administration for sound follow up ?
The mess with Iran is a very ugly consequence of Trump being led by our allies Bibi and MBS and his hatred of Obama fueled by Bolton and Pompeo. This is a loser play from the start.
Overall we are in danger !
3
Talk about scatter shot. Iran is a theocracy. The Republican Guard feast on corruption. But Iran has done nothing to harm the US. I guess Freidman is talking about Syria. Where dictator Assad is supported by his country just to have the proxy war end. One in which the US and its friends unleashed a nasty army of fanatical jihadists to do their worst, to use the civilian populace as human shields, and perpetrate false flag chemical weapons attacks. Russia, Iran and Hezbollah are on the side of protecting Syria from being overthrown by crazy Sunni zealots. The US policy, first get rid of Assad then we'll deal with jihadists, makes one wonder if the US thinks the Syrians have any rights worth respecting. Trump and his stupid shenanigans on Iran are a war crime in the making. Illegal international sanctions, except if Trump says so then the US says they are legal. He tarnishes the entire country. He endangers the entire world. His bombastic rhetoric is sophomoric chest pounding.
1
No one you'd want more to be at the helm during a pivotal moment in world history than ... Donald Trump. If God existed, I don't think any amount of prayer could get us out of this one.
3
"Appeasement" has been a dirty word in the West since Munich 1938 and now Friedman is demanding that the Iranians appease another bully i.e Trump. What Friedman, Stephens et al fail to understand is that Obama skillfully laid the foundations of regime change in Iran without the need for potential war. As is well known, Iran has a young and well educated population who want to participate in the world and desire all the goodies the West has. Opening up trade and societal pressure within would have forced the hardliners to moderate and the West could have made money at the same time.
5
The tale told by Trump ultimately will be the big lie, and the rest of us will pay the bill.
1
Agree Israel can take care of itself. Disagree the US should arm the Sunnis. Let that religious war which began in 661 sort itself out. In sum, let US get out of the Middle East whose only asset, oil, will become obsolete, hopefully during my lifetime.
Regarding oil, is it a coincidence that Trump wants to shut down Iran at a time when the US is the world's largest producer or is it his view of America First?
30
Hadn’t thought of your last point, but that does sound so trumpian. Strangle Iran oil shipments to the rest of the world to weaken and hurt all countries that rely on that source. I personally don’t doubt it.
7
Trump proudly touts the fact that the US in the largest oil producer in the world at around 11 mil barrels per day, but he ignores the fact that we are still short of oil and import roughly 7 mil BPD. If he creates mayhem in the Middle East, what does he think our imported oil cost then?
4
Unfortunately Mr. Friedman completely ignores the national and cultural characteristics of both Iran and China. His perspective is entirely grounded in what he sees as the anti-American aspects of both cultures - he pays absolutely no attention to their perspectives. Both countries are used to long struggles to achieve their goals, both have strong cultures that resist hegemonic interventions by other states. They can dig in and wait. The U.S. however lacks any long term frame of reference and never bothers to try to understand other cultures. Trump has exacerbated the bullying tendency of the U.S and thinks that leveraging U.S. economic power is all that's required to meet his goals (if he even has any). He will find that China and Iran can also draw red lines.
5
"America is now the world’s largest oil producer — not Saudi Arabia, Russia or Iran. If Iran sinks oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, it will create gasoline lines in China, not America."
America is the worlds largest oil producer but only by a small margin. Saudi Arabia and Russia each produce nearly the same amount. And while the US produces 10 million barrels of oil a day, it consumes twice that amount, 20 million barrels a day. The shortfall of 10 million barrels a day must be imported. If Iran sinks oil tankers in the Gulf, America is going to feel the pain.
5
Correction. My numbers were too simplistic. Forbes has published a detailed anaylsis:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/12/09/no-the-u-s-is-not-a-net-exporter-of-crude-oil/
Their article says that the US produces 11.7 million barrels of oil a day and consumes 20.5 million barrels. But some of the consumption is measured in barrel of oil equivalents such as natural gas which is produced domestically. After accounting for all sources of production and consumption it turns out the US is a net importer of crude oil in the amount of 4 million barrels of oil per day (not 10).
1
And, besides the North Korean stakes mentioned, do not forget the problems in Syria, Afghanistan, and Israel/Palestine. All of these are in various stages of smoldering. With Trump's attention diverted elsewhere, and without a clear policy and route to settling these issues, we have entered a period when any combination can suddenly catch fire. The problems may well be instigated by parties who wish to take advantage of Trump's inability to cope because he must face both China and Iran at the same time.
All of what Friedman proposes makes sense, but his arguments are demolished by the inescapable reality that Donald Trump is our "man-in-charge." It should be clear even to Tom that Trump and his regime of second-bananas have no earthly idea what they are doing -- other than to create a winning strategy for the 202 election.
Under any other President, Friedman's ideas would make sense. Under Trump, they are sheer fantasy.
4
TF provides a sane, balanced and fair description of the USA's position viz-a-viz our position in the world. I don't know if his suggestions for solving them are practical, especially with our current President and his hawkage advisers. There presently is no one present in the White House who has the intellectual power and clout to embrace the policies, or any similar ones, enunciated by TF.
1
Unfortunately, we are led by a group of ignorant fools. Iran has been around for several thousands years. It is no accident they are still around. The same goes for China. Us, not so long. We may survive a one term trump, two terms I am not sure.
8
Iran under the ayatollahs is not Persia.
It was Persia under the Shah, who correctly identified Shia Islam as the reason for Iran’s backwardness.
Unfortunately for Iran and the rest of the world, he was not able to restore the glory—and the achievements—that was Persia.
1
Where is Cyrus the great when you need him?
1
You could have spared the ink and simply said that we retain the Iran deal forged by Obama and our allies. It was working. This administration’s foreign policy initiatives lack anything resembling a strategy. It’s all bluster and false bravado to play to the cheap seats back home.
7
When it comes to a potential Iran deal there is one big problem. Previous administrations made deals with North Korea's dictator, who promply took the goods and then cheated behind the scenes. Cheating & dictators seem to go hand and hand.
1
That’s why trump loves them. He is probably worse, given more time. He’s singlehandedly ruining this used to be great country in two years.
America is about commerce, trade, military power and capitalism.
Iran under the Ayatollahs and their Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Quds forces exists to export revolution which disrupts the stability for trade to exist.
China cheats and steals its way it dominance.
Like the Anglo-Dutch wars of the 1600s and the The Eighty Years' War (Tachtigjarige Oorlog/Guerra de los Ochenta Años) or the Dutch War of Independence (1568–1648) we are involved in a critical period. However, know this, the majority of trade still relies on navigable sea lanes and access to energy to keep our commercial engines moving.
Yet, like the English and the Dutch, the US has the world's only real deep water navy. As bad as things are, they could be much much worse. We face many challenges, but do did the Dutch and the British and do to do Iran and China. Nations that control the seas control trade and that has not changed. The US is still the on indispensable nation and this Presidency will pass and we will again be the USA if we continue to invest in our work force, our educational institutions, healthcare R&D, science and tech, infrastructure and free public education (the cornerstone of the American century). Our biggest challenges are self-made due to greed, tribal politics and myopic and absolutist political viewpoints.
3
Lets be clear, President Trump does not act crazy. He is the real thing.
6
This is just about the best liberal endorsement of Trump I could imagine...
4
Friedman gives Trump credit for causing Iran real "pain". He applauds Trump's goals and only has minor tactical differences. As if this pain, choking off Iran's economy, is going to force the Mullahs to "negotiate". Negotiate what? Their capitulation? Negotiate with whom? The superpower that ripped up its solemn agreement, negotiated over how many years, in less than 18 months. Like Trump, Friedman lives in a fantasy land. Iran is putting maximum pressure on Trump. Either he lifts sanctions or watch oil prices will soar along with the prospect for a shooting and bombing war.
9
Why would either of these countries give Trump a win of any kind?
They too are probably hoping for regime change in the U.S. in 2020, so they can have a predictable negotiating partner. What both countries have is time, wait till 2020, then negotiate with the next administration.
5
I would love for Friedman to turn this critical eye on the US itself. Today, no country has so blatantly violated international law or abused its position in the international system as the US. No country has been a greater destabilizing influence in the Middle East, or the larger world, than the US. Yet, Friedman seems completely unable to see this. He is so narrowly and narrow-mindedly American in his worldview that he cannot see what is staring him in the face. It is true that many countries want a return to the old "normal" but many others are understanding that an unrestrained US is the most dangerous actor in the world. Forming alliances to check American power may be the wisest thing that US "allies" could do right now. Friedman's claim that Iran is seeking nuclear weaponry is also an outright falsehood. Why would he say this? I thought he was supposed to be an expert on that one region of the world at least. Iran wants nuclear technology, it wants to have the capacity to go nuclear if necessary, but that is a long way from "seeking" nuclear weaponry. Friedman just can't seem to grasp that the country in the world that most needs to change its behavior is the US. One final point: China's pursuit of new technologies like electric cars may be what saves the rest of us. As the US does all it can to make climate change worse and obstruct any progress on that file, China is developing technologies that will help everyone. I know who I support there.
12
Thank you Thomas Friedman, great essay, and great points. I don't have the space and time here to repeat all those points, but it is interesting how the commentors criticize and attack you for thinking that Trump can listen to or take good advice. I'm not a fan of Drumpf, but he is brilliant as a con artist and crook, who has shown that he can dominate the press like few ever have. Furthermore, he has a brand to protect.
I agree with your main point, that we can settle with Iran and should, extending the nuclear treaty by more years, for lifting the sanctions and maintaining a long, awkward peace. Your points about China are equally cogent. China poses a serious threat to the United States and the world, as well as a fine opportunity. I share in your unspoken grief. We had the beginning of a plan of action, with the TPP, the Trans Pacific Partnership, and we will have to return to such a proactive and intelligent diplomacy, even it it is to be called, at least temporarily, the Trump Pacific Partnership.
David Lindsay Jr. is the author of “The Tay Son Rebellion, Historical Fiction of Eighteenth Century Vietnam” and blogs at TheTaySonRebellion.com and InconvenientNews.net. He performs a folk concert of songs and stories about Climate Change and the Sixth Extinction.
1
Not only does Trump have no support among our allies, but he has little support among 65% of the American people. Going it alone has special meaning here.
8
China has learned that the US can't be trusted in any deal and they are concentrating on India and Europe. They are much more disciplined than trump who can waver day by day. They will make sacrifices and play the long game. trump has no understanding of sacrifices or a long game. He wants to be a dictator and to be obeyed
We are going to force Russia, China and Iran into a partnership which the EU won't be able to ignore.
7
" The U.S. will lift oil sanctions if Tehran agrees to extend the restrictions on its ability to make a nuclear bomb from the original 15 years to 30 years, and agrees to a ban on testing Iranian missiles that can reach beyond the Middle East."
While we are at it---How about the US agrees to withdrawal all of its forces from the area, gives up its support for Israel and agree to dismantle its nuclear arsenal and reduce military spending.
Sure-- Iran can have faith in the US promises..
10
"Israel can take care of itself." Meanwhile the US is giving Israel 3.8 million dollars a year in military aid. This perhaps one reason why they have comprehensive medical care for every person while we leave 28 million people with nothing and the rest with all kinds of ever increasing copays, minimums, and limits even with the ACA reforms.
It's time to stop subsidizing Israel and start providing some version of universal health care like in every other advanced country, including Israel.
15
You mean $3.8 Billion, with a B, not 3.8 Billion.
This is a sensible analysis, as usual, from Thomas Friedman. But it will have no impact on Trump. The only thing that matters to Trump is to win in 2020, and that depends almost exclusively on motivating his base. Which is white non-college whites whose values are anti-immigrants and racism. No surprise there. See the analysis of Thomas B. Edsall. Therefore, Trump will huff and puff about Iran but will not go to war against Iran, because the base is leery of another war. And he will huff and puff against China and accomplish nothing good for America. But it will not matter because the impact of the trade war against China will be minimal in the short run. The rise in prices of consumer goods that will result from tariffs will not be very noticeable by 2020 and won't matter very much to the base anyway.
4
2019 could be a pivotal year if we had a stable president with average intelligence. The best we can do, however, is work for the right outcome on election day, 2020, the pivotal moment and, I fear, our last chance for the survival of humanity and democracy.
10
China has many advantages over us.
1) Xi can stall until Trump is gone and someone more sane inhabits the oval office.
2) China is a one party system.
3) They have long range plans for the future, ie. Silk Road, high speed rail lines connecting brand new cities. Electrification of their transportation system.
They have specific plans to dominate AI, Robotics and Tech.
The U.S. on the other hand has zero long range plans. None for infrastructure, none for climate change, renewable energy.
No plan for Exiting Iraq and Afghanistan. No plan to reduce homelessness. No plan for reducing income inequality. No plan to lift more people into the middle class. No plan to reduce gun violence. No plan for reducing the incarceration rate. No plan for making health care affordable and accesible. No plan to make college more affordable. No real plan to improve primary school educational outcomes. No plan to stabilize medicare and social security spending.
4) China is already planning how to replace the agricultural products, ie. soybeans they used to buy from us.
5) China doesn't involve itself in endless overseas conflicts.
6) China will sit back if we get in a war with Iran. They'll let us
fight to keep the shipping lanes open for them.
7) China has been around for thousands of years.
As for us, Ben Franklin said it best when asked by some citizens what kind of government they created. He responded.
" A Republic, if you can keep it."
12
Watch the Democrats debates. They have plans for all those things you mention. Unfortunately, the trumplican base will hear none of it, and they control the electoral college. So , yes we are doomed.
3
That’s why we need to get rid of it. I know this much is true: If the republicans wanted to get rid of it, it would be gone, like Merrick Garland. Unfortunately, the dems don’t know how to fight and win and are always worried about trump’s stupid base.
Friedman talks about China's rising economic power; its theft of intellectual property and its practices. The US should be on alert because the Chinese are the dominant students in graduate STEM programs in the elite universities in the US. These students will go back to China and provide the knowledge needed to make China the leading innovator in IA and electric cars among other things. These students were staying the US after graduation but most are going back to China. Many US students do not typically go into STEM programs but finance. The US should become cognizant of what is happening.
5
@Chris Taxing the financial sector and income from the financial sector fairly would not only help address income inequality and pay for the country's unaddressed needs but reduce the easy pot of gold that has so many of the brightest college students using their smarts in the financial sector, which only extracts money without adding any real value.
4
@Chris
Ah, I see, we must be afraid of Chinese students; they learn too much, study too hard.
2
@ max, thanks for your comment. I wish more people understood that. Our values are upside down. A business major gets you way more $’s in salary and benefits than much more difficult degrees in engineering and sciences. Except medical of course.
2
A President who doesn't read or listen to anyone's advice probably won't get wind of your article, Mr. Friedman. In any case, it was smart and informative, as usual.
3
Friedman has great ideas. His only problem being that he, apparently, assumes that Trump is capable of developing a rational strategy other than getting reelected.
3
Friedman says two things that jumped out at me. One was a reference to a Trump policy that may or may not be good for America. That is never part of Trump's policy decisions. All of Trump's policy decisions are always based on what he thinks will be good for Trump. Always.
The second was "if Trump is smart". Do you remember the letter from his doctor? The one that praised his most excellent lab results? Possibly the best lab results that anyone has ever produced? The letter that we now know for a fact was (of course) written by Donald himself? Does that strike anyone as the work of a "smart person"?
6
"I will give Trump credit for one thing: He has imposed real pain on Iran"
Why is this creditable? If Iran was meeting all o fits obligations under the nuclear deal, "imposing pain" on them in contravention to the deal was perverse. So why does myopic Tom want to give US credit on the root of the problem we have with Iran now? After all, if it were not for the "pain", Iran would not be acting out now in the Gulf.
7
"He’s imposed pain. Now, if he only had defined plans and goals."
If only Trump had the mental capacity to strategize beyond the daily news cycle.
5
I wish American journalists would stop declaring how "wise" Donald Trump was in stepping back from a bombing raid on Iran. He stumbled his way into a crisis and is stumbling his way out of it. That is not wisdom.
15
Would that these goals were delivered by the white house. I have no idea what this guys goals are. As a result, he instills no confidence in his awareness of the threats or opportunities. Its is approaching 2.5 yrs now. Everyone has been attacked, everyone. The question is, does he have anything beyond attack. Honestly, I do not think so. Sad!
3
So, aggressive posturing involving three of the few significant countries where it's legal to kill law breakers, who's governments seem to care neither about globally significant pollution nor about the personal well being of their most vulnerable citizens and who prioritise military clout over internal societal enhancement.
What could possibly go wrong?
1
"two of the world’s oldest civilizations — Persia and China " Does anyone seriously believe this statement means any thing at all to Trump? You may as well be speaking Chinese to him without an interpreter - or Farsi for that matter.
5
Friedman writes:
"China grew out of poverty using a strategy of hard work, delayed gratification, smart investments in infrastructure and education and big investments in research and manufacturing the innovations of others."
That is how almost all wealthy nations in the modern era have achieved broad economic growth.
Friedman also states that:
"China also stole others’ intellectual property, forced technology transfers from companies doing business there, imposed nonreciprocal trade arrangements, provided huge government subsidies to its exporters and ignored World Trade Organization rulings."
Again, most developed countries used similar tools, more or less, on their path to wealth. The US used tariffs to protect nascent industry; steam and rail technology that flourished in Britain was often copied in the US (with British investment) without really compensating the British developers.
That's just how it works.
If China is 'cheating', it isn't in ways that are new. If we seek to modify their behavior because it is offering goods and services that are valued on the global market, then we are likely to fail. Changing that behavior is similar to repealing the laws of gravity. The market simply reflects the desires of global consumers.
Better to instead spend that effort incentivizing US firms that can offer goods and services that are valued on the global market. That's just how it works.
1
The US should be careful not to overly belabor China’s theft of intellectual property since the US has its own history of copying and appropriating technology developed elsewhere. Rocket technology is one area that comes to mind. Being too strident on this issue could dissuade from achieving our fundamental objectives of peace and prosperity.
3
@S Dooner
One major difference between China's intellectual property theft is they could not declare victory rights to a defeated foe in a major war. A war that was to protect most folk from an ideology that a few are better than others and are entitled to rule the world. The U.S. did just as other world powers who brought down the Nazis grabbed what they could in technology and intelligence performance including the folk who invented that stuff.
China has used being a third world country status to build itself into the second largest economy in the world. Because of their status they were able to operate outside the so called "Norms of behavior" generally (sometimes reluctantly) accepted by a good portion of the world.
There's a huge difference between the two.
1
The China problem is simple. America is addicted to inexpensive toys. China can produce them far more cheaply. So we sold our jobs and our souls to feed that addiction. China abused the privilege and in a sense we let them do that in order to feed our addiction.
Now we find ourselves in the equivalent of a foot race with China to see who is going to dominate or at least be a player in the future technologies.
But in that foot race rather than deciding that the way to win is to run faster it seems as if we are trying to trip China instead. How about we run faster instead?
For decades we've been sending American innovations to China and teaching them how to build them because they can do it cheaply. In the process, they either steal the technologies outright or "force" us to give them the technology. "Force"? There is another option; make them ourselves.
The benefit is keeping jobs in America. The price we'll pay is much more expensive toys, but we will have dumped our addiction to China manufacturing which is the source of their potential dominance.
The stumbling block in all of this is American industry that can make huge profits for shareholders by having China do the work. Even Trump himself has his few products like ties made in China because people can afford them.
Profits for shareholders dominates over all industrial choices. That is catastrophically bad for America. Well paid Jobs are more important. The future of the country is more important.
5
Only minutes ago, Trump commented on a FOX Business program that a war with Iran “wouldn’t last very long. I’m not talking boots on the ground.” Given his previous tweet about “obliterating” Iran, why aren’t more Republicans concerned by such unhinged, dangerous provocations?
We have already seen that, contrary to what he said, trade wars are not easy to win and do last long. Is a military disaster next? As for those who say he is just talking tough to scare Iran, we aren’t in some video game or TV show. If Iran believes it has nothing to lose, his statements may get us into a war from which he has already said he would have “no exit strategy,” since he doesn’t “do exit strategies.”
5
The president’s ability to inflict pain on others is his greatest act. From the boardroom to the borders to the wheat fields to the shipyards, he has a knack for the insult which causes pain and degradation. However if you’re uber wealthy or a strongman in power, he falls in love. Beyond creepy is our carrot-headed Twitter machine.
5
The operative phrase here, upon which this whole essay hinges, is "If Trump is smart." We all know what Trump is--and isn't. This predicament he got us into will likely metastasize and eventually bring the temple down around our ears. Trump as Samson: Well, he has the hair, doesn't he?
3
@CKent
Thanks for a depressing laugh. Sometimes you actually need to laugh at the the depressing circus in Washington D.C.. And that's a shame.
Thanks again.
1
Why would Iran agree to a 30-year deal when Trump ripped up the 15-year deal? And if Mr. Friedman thinks that electric cars are one of the two biggest innovations of the 21st century, he can see 80 years ahead better than most people; what would he have said about the 20th century in 1919?
4
"We can settle for a transactional deal with Iran." But how can Iran ever settle for a transactional deal with the U.S.? We had a transactional deal. Trump tore it up for no good reason.
10
Over the past nearly 70 years as a citizen of this democracy I wanted to believe our leaders would be compelled to seek out expert advice for the complex affairs of state. The issues of world statecraft would require the White House to assemble panels of diverse and experienced diplomats, regional experts, historians, academics, strategic theorists…our best and brightest to provide insight, debate and support to guide the decision-making for international relations. Such guidance would help to temper the ever-present pressures posed by the military-industrial-banking-resource extraction complex. Previous presidents may have exhibited such an approach to varying degrees.
Today I see an easily persuaded president who has surrounded himself with a small cadre of outliers (Bolton, Pompeo, Miller, Mulvaney…) who lean arrogantly hawkish and distrustful of established agencies/sources/structures of intelligence gathering and assessment. Our president’s authoritarian demeanor, shallow access and minimal dogmatic assessment of international issues, combined with an isolationist mindset give me little confidence for our immediate future.
4
@Richard K: There is no sign whatsoever that the US will meaningfully address its deeply flawed system.
3
@Steve Bolger
Unfortunately you may be right.
That's truly scary...
China invests in the future and we invest in antiquated military technology and tax cuts. Long term, who wins?
7
"Cue the skepticism". Exactly right. Trump is so obviously not the president who can play this kind of three-dimensional chess. Suggest that Mr. Friedman advocate instead for for a strategy of postponement and stasis. Let's elect a capable Democrat in 2020 and make 2021 the pivotal year instead of 2019.
4
Thoughtful analysis, wrong audience in Trump. Election year 2020 is far more critical than 2019. That's when we have to change our history.
1
"If Trump is smart"
Oh, Tom! That's the funniest line of the year. If Trump is smart, indeed. Please, tell me... just what has he done over the course of his first half term to indicate anything at all about being "smart"? Anything? Don't let the crickets drown you out, now...
Trump, smart... an oxymoron if I ever heard one...
10
Trump doesn’t want anything except more money and power for Trump. He could give a whit about “real gains for America.” He thinks looking like a tough guy will appeal to his voting base, and he knows that erasing the accomplishments of our first black President will definitely be popular with that group. So that’s what he does.
Friedman, like many other smart people who can’t contemplate the horrifying reality of being ruled by an overgrown toddler, keeps making the mistake of imagining there is more than meets the eye here. There is actually less than meets the eye.
9
Hope is not a strategy. And we know that the Impulse-in-Chief cannot muster the ability to think ahead, define goals, etc.
Trump is thrashing around to distract from the inevitable clarity in Americans' minds that he is a failed businessman, a grifter and felon.
This truth lies in plain sight and it's borderline crazy for Friedman to think his columns will reach Trump's ears, let alone his "brain."
4
Trump has no idea what he’s doing. He’s just conning his way and when something goes wrong he’ll blame someone else. Who voted for this racist and misogynist and continue to support him? Misogynist and racists.
10
The Government of America is looking increasingly dishonest and incompetent by the week. Who would ever had thought that it would come to this stupidity.
Iran has a very long history, and like the Vietnamese they take the long term picture.
It would be helpful if both sides just shut up for a while.
The American psyche took a long time to get over the debacle and defeat that was Vietnam.
2
@Robert
What makes you think the U.S. is over Vietnam?
It's lessons have not yet been learned...
1
The champion of the neocon-inspired Iraq war and the cheerleader for the murdurous Saudi "crown prince" proves once again that his cute prose can't obscure a chameleon core.
7
America would be better off to stop choosing sides in the Shia-Sunni rivalry, explicitly or implicitly by backing extremists like Netanyahu or MBS.
As long as foreign policy is dictated by oil and weapons interests, this will not happen.
Moreover, European leaders will be skeptical of any agreement with Trump, who feels free to rescind commitments at any moment if it suits him, but especially of a new Iran deal, right after US sanctions basically forced EU businesses out of Iran by threatening to freeze their US assets.
I do believe this is the right time to confront China: trade as an equal partner and open your market without abuse or face heavy import duties. The longer we wait, the more powerful China will be and the more likely they will dictate the terms on the world stage and in the world economy.
1
@Anne: The US needs to shed the insulting pretense that it is a divine creation itself.
4
This is written as if Friedman thinks Trump has "goals" or "thoughts." He doesn't, unless one considers his wish to be considered the biggest bully on the playground a goal or thought.
4
your third paragraph says it all...... but analysis like this will never air on Fox or be published in a Murdoch rag or dent the Fox News zombies' reality. the response would be "he's trump. he can do anything" or "well, at least he's trying. which is a lot more than Obama did".
2
I’m giving a recommendation just for the phrase” Fox News zombies “.
Inly 6 or 7 instances of “I” for Mr Friedman in this one. Self restraint!
1
This quagmire started in 1979 with many sanction placed against Iran and 12 billion in assets were frozen. Then Bush senior and his son both gave Iran strength durning the Kuwait and Iraq wars. There are plenty of nuclear weapons in the area by bad guys and good guys including Pakistan who was hiding bin Laden. I don’t know who to point a finger at because this whole issue has been ratcheted up by both parties. You are right I don’t think Trump has a plan for success or failure but I believe the Saudi’s and Israel’s are backing that he does. Then there’s the signatory’s of the 2015 agreement who I believe are all dealing with Iran on a one by one basis. I cannot figure out where this is all going but if the Arabs are afraid of Iran then let them deal with it let the arms deal go through with a guarantee by Congress that they will restrict the president of another bloody war.
I felt, at times when reading this column, I was reading that of a trump surrogate.
China is all bad, it oppresses its people and steals our technology; Iran is seeking nuclear weapons (!). We should, as Mr. trump advises, take action against them.
We don't agree with China’s idea of freedom for its people, but we must see that in the process of its development it has raised its standard of living to the point where by 2025 it will equal that of the major nations in the world. The “stealing” of technology is a natural outcome of business transactions where information must be divulged to enable the producing nation to carry out its assigned task, as in the case of cell-phones.
As for Iran, we had a pact in order that insured the safety of the region, but was abrogated by trump, an action with which Mr. Friedman apparently approves, threatening the entire region and possibly the whole world.
5
Once again Tom Friedman big supporter of the Iraq invasion blames Iran, Iran is not the problem, the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE & the blatant support for everything Israel does is the real problem. Iran did not cause 9/11, did not help create Al Quaeda or IS, & does not have a dictator as its ruler unlike Trump,s buddy in North Korea, so why is Friedman blaming Iran? They are supporting the Yemeni people who are being destroyed by our bombs sold to Saudi Arabia & Friedman says arm our Sunni allies to keep Iran at bay! Nonsense.
7
“To worry about” he is insane.
3
" . . . I believe 2019 will be a pivotal year — like 1945 and 1989. I just hope it ends as well."
Given what we have at the head of the Executive Branch right now--not only President Orange, but his merry band of blow-it-all-up advisors--that truly is the triumph of hope over experience, Tom.
3
Japan, Iran, Afghanistan...
I like China. I like Persia. I like their eastern culture. I would like to relocate to China. However I am a writer (www.fallingleaves.blog). I feel like China is not a good place for writers and freedom of thought.
All this article is written by the type of person who studies post graduate degrees and hangs around foreign policy institutes. The elite. Of course the shiny happy citizens of shanghai smile nicely in their electric cars because the black prisons for dissidents are kept out of view.
Is this the future we want? A high technology megalopolis for most of the population and gulags for the social misfits and free thinkers. Everyone seems taken in by the shiny shiny smartphones that China manufactures and forgets about the people serving life with hard labour.
We need a total rethink from authoritarianism. However in this age of smart phones I’m not sure people have the attention span to read philosophy just make sure your credit score is ok and live in that shiny apartment and do t worry you can’t speak your mind (you don’t have contentious thoughts anyway).
PS nuclear weapons might be 20th century technology but they still go up with a bang. Also people will still buy oil no matter how old fashioned you claim it is.
Ivory towers spring to mind?
Can you speak Persian or Chinese?
1
I actually agree with Friedman. But what's so sad is that Friedman never wrote ONE word about the threat and reality of China stealing our jobs and intellectual property nor the terrorism that Obama funded with his $150- billion transfer to the Mullahs. Shameful.
"If trump is smart." Yeah, right. He only does the dumbest thing possible always, so what do you think is going to happen.
5
Hi Thomas,
Remember the earth is flat?
Once again Tom Friedman big supporter of the Iraq invasion blames Iran, Iran is not the problem, the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE & the blatant support for everything Israel does is the real problem. Iran did not cause 9/11, did not help create Al Quaeda or IS, & does not have a dictator as its ruler unlike Trump's buddy in North Korea, so why is Friedman blaming Iran? They are supporting the Yemeni people who are being destroyed by our bombs sold to Saudi Arabia & Friedman says arm our Sunni allies to keep Iran at bay! Nonsense.
5
He's a vindictive and nasty man with few good ideas.
1
"Israel can take care of itself."
Good, so they can do without American tax dollars and dismantle its established nuclear weapon arsenal, and fight its wars with its own soldierrs.
If Iran wanted to harm America, it does not need nuclear weapons, now or in 30 years. All it would take is a handful of operatives and a book of matches. Setting wild fires in response to American aggression would be cost free and risk free, if it is pushed to the brink.
Iran has buiilt its defences and nurtured its allies precisely because of the likes of Trump, Bolton, and Pompeo. Israel has already bombed the nuclear facilites of Iraq and Syria, and has sent assasins to Iran to kill many of its physicists. And you would expect them to stand by while their arms and legs are severed and chopped up, as experienced by Jamal Khasoggi, with impunity.
Do youreally believe a 1,000 year-old civilization is goiing to be "obliterataed" by grifters like Trump and his toady sidekicks who bow to the wishes of their multi-billionaire donors with allegiance to countries with anti-Persian goals.
Think again, or rue your handiwork.
9
"The big question is can the president be disciplined enough, patient enough and deft enough — cue the skepticism — to translate the pain he’s imposed on them into specific, tangible and lasting gains for America?"
Can he be disciplined enough???? What exactly are you smoking tonight?
If Trump wants to have a deal with Iran, he should offer something Obama did not offer. Access to financial system with no restriction, easing banking restrictions. Crazy it sounds but that would give him a real plus in negotiating.
1
Dealing effectively with Iran and China are challenges that would prove problematic to the most capable presidents in our history. Given the shortcomings of the current occupant of the White House, expecting progress on either front is a fool's errand, I'm afraid. The best we can hope for is to maintain the status quo for another 18 months, when the "Accidental President" leaves office.
2
Ah but "we" do have an interest in getting embroiled in a protracted war with Iran, if fact several. First there is a lot of money to be made in a war with Iran, or anyone else, as munitions are expensive and contracting is lucrative. The military capitalists must be salivating at the potential profits of destroying and rebuilding Iran. There goes at least another trillion. And second we have allies like Israel & Saudi Arabia, to name two, who have reasons to cheer the USA on in a war to remake Iran. Need I say more?
4
Trump is not doing any of this. He likely could not read this column, much less write it. If true, this is Ollie North running a gun-running-drug-trafficking ring out of the White House basement, except the stakes are literally cataclysmic.
Your characterization that this is planned lacks foundation in two ways - if this actually is a series of actions designed to bring about an outcome, who designed it, and where is the money trail? Who voted for this person, and if it fails, how do we hold THEM accountable because we know d- well who is not running this show?
Mr. Friedman, you hopefully ask if Trump can be "disciplined enough, patient enough and deft enough" to follow through his squeeze on China and Iran. The answer is a stark no. Real diplomacy is not in his tool kit, and his cabinet lacks anyone deft in negotiation. Every time Trump is on the verge of something possibly resulting in a productive outcome, he sabotages it with his incapacity to see the big picture or his inability to exercise any nuance. In short, Trump is a blunt instrument, ignorant of history and totally subservient to his ego.
3
"If Trump is smart..."
That's a pretty big "if" Tom.
2
The NYT should provide graceful retirement for Friedman and Brooks -- two peas in a pod that has defined the political consensus for decades. Both are, at this point, either delusional about the world we live in, or incapable of seeing beyond their own 'brilliance'. Please give us more Goldberg, Bouie, Bruni, and Douthat. I don't agree with everything they say, but at least they are in touch with the current world.
Every time there's mention of a sexual assault, Trump goes overseas.
What's he doing now - buying more Trump trademarks that he can use in China? He's obtained quite a few more since his bizarre inaugural address, hasn't he.
The man is disgusting.
Vote this felon out of office.
He can run but he can't hide.
3
The one flaw in your argument about Iran is you must be under some delusion that the US oil companies want fossil fuel use to decline. I am sure the boards of Exxon, Koch bros etc are reading this and saying Tom is a genius and we need to stop using oil. While actually they are sitting there thinking let's stir things up in the middle east and praising W for the Iraq war that we are still fighting. We need to keep those prices high. If Iraq, Iran and Libya were producing at 100% capacity and selling on a true free open market the price of Gasoline would be back to 1970 prices. Now that would be a "tax" cut the poorest people in the world could use.
1
This column rests on an absurdly false premise with regards to Iran. Of course, Friedman doesn't see it.
And it is that the Iranians are dumb enough to trust the US to strike a new deal. In what universe would Iran trust the Americans, after Trump simply pulled out of a painstakingly negotiated deal that, by all accounts, was yielding its intended results for all participants?
What would drive the Iranians to trust such an erratic, insane country?
7
By all accounts, we have an "acting" president in the White House who has committed crimes, who is enriching himself and his family on the taxpayers' dime and who is on the brink of an impeachment inquiry by the House of Representatives. Best leave all these unordinary moments in history to a real president.
Friedman is somewhat of an enigma. I heard him at a conference and he sounded oh so logical but then I remembered him champion the Iraq war with some blithering nonsense relating to "we need to show them." Likewise, reading his reasoning of Trump taking on China and Iran at once. Most normal people understand that a deal is a deal so when the very stable genus rips up the Iran deal - it infers one primary fact. There's no way in god green earth any person let alone leader of any country should trust this guy. Look at his new Nafta agreement. He's trying to pass the thing then tweets a threat of tariffs over immigration. Perhaps mental retardation is a good excuse but more likely the guy is just a plain lunatic.
4
If Trump is smart,...we wouldn't be here in such a mess.
If Trump is smart, he will continue Paris accord to keep environment group and our allies happy. If Trump is smart, he will join the TPP to really push hard on China. If Trump is smart, he'll keep Iran Nuclear deal that keep Iran in check.
But Trump is not what we'd like him to be.
4
An interesting analysis Thomas Friedman is presenting, as usually. And many of the comments you people are providing hit sore points, all in order.
The real problem we all are facing, however, is the actually unrelenting growth of the world's population. No one can really help with that one or can we.
I recently calculated that just the annual CO2 output of the world's population of 7.7 billion (as of June 19, 2019) amounts to 2,226 million tons of CO2 - in the air we all exhale. Due to our metabolism, there is a 100-fold increase (0.04% to 4%) in CO2 relative to the air we inhale, The figure of 2,226 million tons, of course, does not include any of the CO2 generated by the world's population due to heating, traffic, industry etc. Now we contrast this figure with the overall annual output of CO2 e.g. in Germany - including everything + the CO2 exhaled by the 83 million people living in this country. This total annual output is 786 million tons of CO2. The CO2 in the exhaled air by 7.7 billion people annually hence is 2.8 times greater than the overall annual generation of CO2 in highly industrialized Germany. This example is meant to demonstrate that we are facing a really serious problem without an obvious way around it, at least any time soon. History teaches us, highly developed cultures have been toppled by incompatibilities between number of people and limitations of resources - and by migration. Do not misunderstand me - we all have the right to a decent life.
1
Tom, you make light of the harm Saudi Arabia does, and are bent on demonizing Iran. The Saudis should not be armed, "to keep Iran at bay." The Saudis turn their weapons on civilians in Yemen. Right now the regime is friendly with Israel, but that could turn on a dime, as the Arab soul has no real affection for Israel. So Saudi weapon could be aimed one day at Israel. Iran is not the enemy of the U.S. Remember that Iran helped the U.S. fight ISIS.
2
Our president is a lunatic. We need better than that. He is either going to get us into a war or he is going to completely destroy the country - or both.
1
Trump is a destroyer and a divider. We need a president who is a builder and a unifier.
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It remains to be seen whether we really have all that leverage that we imagine. There are other players on the world stage that could create alternative outlets for the those countries we are try to squeeze and bully into submission. The US already does not have the monopoly on power both in economic and military terms and undermining the status of the dollar is not going to help either.
1
Mr. Friedman addresses every issue but the right ones!
The Trump Administration has sent the US careening around the world causing trouble, with tariffs here, sanctions there, and navy carrier battle groups prowling the Seven Seas.
What's the point and purpose to all this meddling halfway around the world from our homeland? What favorable results can we hope to achieve?
Will threats, sanctions, and hostile military acts reduce Iran's need for a nuclear deterrent? Is the US qualified to mediate the centuries-old Sunni/Shiite schism in the Middle East?
Will tariffs halt China's inexorable progress toward building the infrastructure and foreign trade routes that will sustain its economic growth to the end of the 21st Century? Can the US maintain its world economic dominance by crippling China instead of rebuilding America's infrastructure and trade relations?
Now really, wouldn't we and the world be better off if we focused on fixing our own incompetent governance, decaying infrastructure, immigration accommodation, and social neglect? Do we meddle in the affairs of other nations because we are hopeless at tending our own affairs?
8
It should be apparent by now that Trump has no coherent plans about anything. He doesn’t appear to realize that he’s no longer starring in the Apprentice show.
3
"The U.S. will lift oil sanctions if Tehran agrees to extend the restrictions on its ability to make a nuclear bomb from the original 15 years to 30 years, and agrees to a ban on testing Iranian missiles that can reach beyond the Middle East."
This is a fantastic proposal. Only problem is: The U.S. cannot be trusted.
1. Iran set the hostages free and unharmed in 1980 and was rewarded with a U.S.-encouraged Iraqi invasion of Iran, that killed one million Iranians, many who died through U.S.-supplied chemical ingredients.
2. Iran was the first to commiserate with the U.S. on 9/11 (the Arabs and Pakistanis were unanimously celebrating and shooting rifles in the air), and gave the U.S. invaluable political and logistical assistance to defeat the Taleban in Afghanistan (the Taleban returned after the U.S. moved the target to Iraq). Iran was rewarded with the 'Axis of Evil' epithet. This was as bad, for example, as calling Israelis Nazis.
3. Iran signed the JCPOA and it was torn up.
Yes, the U.S., not Trump, tore it up. With a Hillary Clinton presidency ("we'll knock Iran back to the Stone Age") the situation would have been even worse. I have zero doubt that she would have ordered a military attack following the drone downing.
The ONLY solution is for the U.S. to lift sanctions unilaterally and commence negotiations after they are seen to have been lifted,not just in word but in practice.
5
To expect Trump to commit to any principle is the fault. At his core, Trump is a narcissist who only is concerned with his own status. Everyone else is just an audience for his center-stage performance. Anybody who thinks he's committed to some global Mideast peace plan is delusional. Iran will have taken over Iraq within the next decade and the Shi'ites will rule the Middle East, despite the Saudi (Sunni) efforts to prevent it. The U.S. is a bystander in all of this, and Trump's cluelessness about the power dynamics among these nations is the vacuum that allows the Boltons and Pompeos of this administration to manipulate our country's march to war.
I did not like the hawkish tone of Mr Friedman's article.
Despite being headed by a President, who has drawn international criticism for his policies, treatment of allies and foes alike, and a helter-skelter of a foreign policy ... here, USA is being presented as on the right path to cause "real pain" to other countries.
This is how Russia and China work, put a choke-hold and keep it till the adversary gives in.
Is that the policy being applauded by Mr Friedman?
Mind you, looking at history, such actions never work.
Temporarily maybe, but long term, ugly backlash comes roaring back.
You want Iran to cave in, have a dialogue, a real dialogue. And keep your promises.
China needs to be tackled head on economy.
Tariffs will make them go elsewhere, as is happening already. Ask the soybean and leather industry. Ask small business like shellfish(crab, lobsters, clams etc) importers.
Trump has 'no' policy.
If there was, you would have a speech evidence of (not a few, but) one intelligent sentence elucidating it.
And we don't.
3
Friedman is the reason expertise is held is disdain all across the West. He gets a bunch of facts correct--we have bad allies in the Middle East, Israel can take of itself, China will be a competitor in the future, we no longer depend on Saudi oil--everything else he says is the musings of a self righteous blowhard.
China appears scary today but it is a lot closer to the Japan circa 1980 then the global colossus of the future.
Iran is definitely a bad actor in the world but it was born of a revolution against a brutal dictator that was supported by the USA. Is it all that crazy that Iran has concluded that they need a nuclear for existential reasons. They actually live in the Middle East, they fought a long war for their very existence against Iraq. Iraq was material supported by our allies, mainly Saudi Arabia. Admittedly is was a lifetime, 30 years and two wars ago for the USA. For Iranians it was an extension their revolution.
An expert in Middle East like Friedman could the origins of that war, the actual reason our allies supported the brutal dictatorship of Saddam Hussein.
A little retrospection of that war may cause people to examine the relations be the various states of the Middle East and their own people. Those elections we occasionally hear about in Iran and never hear about in the Saudi Arabia might take on a whole different meaning. We might conclude our problem is not that we have "bad allies" in the Middle East we have the wrong allies.
4
Which is it, Friedman? First you rightly criticise Trump for "unilaterally breaking the 2015 denuclearization deal with Iran’s dictator while trying to entice North Korea’s dictator, Kim Jong-un, into a denuclearization deal that he’s supposed to trust the U.S. president will honor."
Then you congratulate Trump for breaking that deal, saying: "I will give Trump credit for one thing: He has imposed real pain on Iran — virtually choking off all of its oil production through sanctions."
Don't you understand that the sanctions are only possible because of the breaking of the 2015 Iran deal? Because the deal removed sanctions in exchange for nuclear cooperation. So you support the breaking of the Iran deal? Except you don't.
Friedman seems confused. As he has, frankly, since about 2002.
I just bought a subscription to the NYT today. I have to admit, I'd forgotten about Tom Friedman.
2
He is confused because he has to counterbalance any rational idea he comes up with against his unconditional support of Israel. Noted that he barely mentions Israel in the article except to say that it “can take care of itself”. In what world can Israel take care of itself other than by its abuse of the full faith and credit of the US?
4
What is more at stake now is whether the world works within rules like WHO or UN or NATO or whether the world works by warfare, either trade war or hot war, war. The goals of the US are artificial goals. If China were to go it alone and begin to sell to its people, like we ended up doing prior to WWII, they will still be larger economically than us. Do they have technology? yes and all tech is both etherial by being short lived and dependent on talent to keep improving. We have stolen talent for more than 50 years by developing universities and institutions that talent wants to be associated with (but less so with anti-science Trump), and now we are yelling foul because China stole ways for making vacuum cleaners. At the end of the day, we are making China the enemy and then we are going to lose the economic race, by mass action and China, the new market that all those businesses gave up tech to get into, could be closed and we lose in 10 years. Better learn Chinese Mr. Friedman, there is no good with T's policies. Iran has hidden nukes and will use them in a hot war. What did the Bull say when he got into the China shop? I'm the ugly American and "I'm Back".
1
Let's stop assuming that Trump has any kind of a foreign policy, or an economic one on trade. He sows chaos because that's all he knows what to do. He does it to enthrall the MAGA-hatted lemmings who watch WrestleMania and would follow this reality show president over a cliff. What this country desperately needs is a better educated electorate.
3
A culture is a way of living, what make life worthwhile, it is not a like a set of set of cloches – you can change when told so. Different cultures are different because the people who have develop them are different. When starved, or with a gun to your head, you may behave differently, but you do not change your genes. Afghanistan and Gaza should have taught us that. The Palestinians does not “want to live in five-star hotels” the way Israel wants them to live. The American Middle East peace plan:” We buy you or kill you” is beginning to emerge as an American principle of making America great. Down the road the increasing number of intimidated (some Europeans are beginning to see the writing on the wall), may find a common ground – how different they may be otherwise – in a dislike and distrust of the intimidater.
1
Don't count on it with Trump.
Another Friedman column reducing not just the Middle East but a new "transformational" new world order to , well, a column. Kind of like his "war of choice" column about the invasion of Iraq, and we saw how that choice for war turned out.
I am a businessman , not a journalist , but I've learned that you strong, enduring deals don't happen when you put a gun to someone's head.
2
What fool would make a deal with a brazen liar?
If you were president of Iran would you want to make a deal with Trump? And why would you?
It is impossible to occupy Iran with an invading army. The list is long of the leaders who have tried. America has few allies who would follow Trump into Persia.
In 53 BC Crassus, the greediest member of the Triumvirate with Caesar and Pompey, stormed into Asia with his son Publius, to beat the Persians once and for all. In the Battle of Carrhae (in what is now Turkey) Publius was killed and a few days later so was Crassus.
Persia has a way of obliterating arrogance: a lot of people know that, except of course, the fools advising Trump to enter a war with Iran.
2
Mr. Friedman advocates for the Trump policies, he only takes issue with how Trump does it.
Wars of aggression are war crimes, morally the Trump policies equal the Hitler policies and the consequences would be the same too. The USA with Trump and the warmongers around him is the pariah nation of the new century.
Some people never learn, even after Vietnam and Iraq, wars today's adults experienced and we are still in Iraq, we learned nothing.
3
Traveling through Asia, no one is talking about Iran but everyone is talking about China. What we are hearing is that China needs to be reigned in. Used to be American tourists were considered rude crude loud disruptive....well they should be relieved that notoriety now belongs to Chinese! They can be spotted at a distance, easily distinguished among other similar looking Asians. They come across as arrogant entitled and just plain obnoxious. They have no regard for other people’s culture nor religion nor spirituality, greed money is their god. It’s kinda shocking.
2
@petey tonei True and well known today around the touristed world. But the opposite of Chinese immigrants to the US. They and their children are the people who did not get rich quick but spent their savings on moving to a country that they thought would offer the possibility of success for their children and have the personal freedoms, real voting choices, free press etc. they desired.
Excellent analysis and good prescription. Thanks especially for highlighting the real foundation behind Iran's push for dominance in the Middle East - Persia's leaders are attempting to enable Shiite Islam to rise against Sunni Islam and alter the outcome of a succession fight within the Prophet Mohammed's family. This is the most idiotic rationale for maiming and killing ever invented - except for perhaps, the continued battles among Christians over the proper legacy of the Prophet Jesus. What a wonderful invention religion has been.
1
What a weak and disappointing analysis. It’s perfectly clear that this president only has the capacity to create chaos. He’s unfit to lead a Boy Scout troop never mind a large and powerful country. He has no understanding of the Iran nuclear deal - shame on you for even implying that it can be improved by this ignorant buffoon - nor does he understand the myriad problems with China. He’s on record saying US taxpayers benefit from tariffs on the goods they buy. So, no, hope is not a plan nor is it an adequate analysis. Even without mentioning his nonsense about climate change or his endless lying about everything, the fact is that Trump himself is the greatest national security threat we’ve faced since WWII.
2
@Fabian: Trump just kicks something over and says "Let's see what happens."
1
We have an unhinged brutus ignoramus at the helm whose aim seems to improvise as he goes, a political weather vane if there ever was one. He is transactional, with no morals to stop his abuse of power. He is dangerous, as he doesn't listen to his inner circle of experts, nor reads the essentials to stay informed. The truth to him is what is convenient at any given moment. Short of ousting him before he embarks in a stupid mission of 'machismo', and destruction (war) he has no remedy. And flattery and self-applause are his weaknesses, by now well known by friends and foes alike. And they will take advantage of it. This vulgar bullying is no strength, weakness instead, a demagogue's territory we better beware of.
1
Defined plans and goals???
What if the world united against trump (small t ) and gave him what he wants. Mexico, China, India, Canada, Europe, India, Brazil and everyone else said OK block our funds, tariff us, do your worst. We are not going to listen to America anymore. We are going to trade with anyone we want, honor treaties, accords and to tell you the truth the quicker we get rid of the US dollar the better we are. Take your extraterritorial long arm jurisdiction and hegemonic dollar and trade with yourself. It will be tough for a while (especially for USA citizens) but the capital markets will quickly shift to Dubai, Shanghai, London, Paris, Moscow, and Tokyo etc., following shareholder Primacy as they will always do. An international cryptocurrency backed by gold, Goldman and the G20 -1 (usa) will prevail for the international trade reserve currency. All USA social media and cyber platforms will be rationalized by each country and be turned into utilities whereby a license fee is negotiated for their use per petaflop and if not acceptable then those countries can go negotiate with the Chinese cyber models and have their own internet access as part of their sovereignty by paying a license fee to a Chinese company. From the nuclear point of view, China, Russia, India and Pakistan will unite all of Africa, Asia (including Iran) and Eurasia under a common tactical umbrella which will form a protective nuclear block that will counter USA hegemony.
@Alkoh: Even gold is only a currency by fiat.
There is everything to worry about.
Trump and his deficient administration are only competent in creating crises and have no rational plan and no coherent strategies to resolve them in our national interests.
I have no confidence in his vision for the future.
He is an ignorant and amoral man with no real ability to inspire hope for a better future.
1
Trump imposes pain daily, in immeasurable quantities.
Trump present hedonism only allows him to concentrate in ten minute spurts, so all of his "plans" and "goals" are of 5 minute duration, max.
2
Hope its not like 1938...
I am in agreement that to make China change is the bigger problem. China simply won't change. The Communist Party is too big and too powerful to admit wrong. The idea that it is wrong is simply not tolerable by the party's elite. China has been increasing its military power and spreading its influence so that it is insulated from the US. Really, there has to be a coup from the inside and I don't see that happening or there has to be some type of economic market destruction that forces change. Trump's tariffs likely won't bring that destruction. The US will just have to live with the idea that China is here to stay.
As for Iran, Mr. Friedman's idea of extending another deal makes sense but Trump might have burned that bridge. Putin can extend Tehran a deal that it can live with but probably not the US. If Trump's team was smart, which it is not, it would live with the reality that it messed up by tearing up the previous deal and create a new one that even allowed for the fifteen-year limit. Of course, like China, the Trump Administration will never admit it is wrong. The Obama Administration was smart enough to understand that it did not have all the answers and that other nations were sovereigns. The Trump Administration is not only filled with idiots, but they are arrogant idiots.
1
It is time to stop demonizing Iran and China. Both countries have very good reasons to be suspicious of the West, having suffered under military, political and economic deprivation at their hands.
During the many years of foreign domination by the West in China when labor was exploited and natural resources taken where were the voices for democracy, justice and fair play? Nows that China has achieved amazing success in raising the standard of living of hundreds of millions of its poorest citizens and has demonstrated its capacity to compete on every level with the West, we are worried.
The same could be said of Iran, whose oil justified America's overturning a democratic election only to result in a brutal military dictatorship under the Shah. The agreement reached after years of negotiation between 5 nations and Iran over her nuclear development and which was working, was scrapped by our know-nothing President. Trump takes pride in punishing Iran and mocks President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry for their remarkable achievement.
Only a new President mindful of history and the advantages of diplomacy over threats can avoid further suffering and the possibility of another war in the middle east.
3
Just like with the migrant children, the cruelty is the point. Iran is no threat to us, and our sanctions are harming the Iranian people more than their regime ever could. The complaints about China are all constantly-changing pretext. It used to be about low-wage labor, now it’s about intellectual property. China has been more responsive to foreign complaints about its economy than most other countries. For example, China’s current account surplus with the rest of the world is falling rapidly and will probably go to zero within the next year or two, while South Korea, Japan, and Germany still have big ones. China is being targeted solely because of its fast growth rate (just like Japan was in the 80s). The inescapable conclusion is that US foreign policy is primarily motivated by a desire to prevent non-white countries from having the same standard of living as the US.
1
The pain inflicted by the US extends beyond Iran and China to various American allies including Canada which - in response to an extradition notice from Washington - is holding a top of official of the Huawei corporation on bail in Vancouver. The results so far include the arbitrary arrest and detention without bail of two Canadians in China and an economically-devastating boycott of Canadian exports of agricultural products. Despite this real pain, Canada is holding firm to its extradition agreement with the US even though Trump has said charges against Meng Wanzhou, the daughter of Huawei's founder, could be dropped as part of a satisfactory trade deal with China. Trump, of course, wants China to buy more US agricultural products. Many many Canadians are muttering to themselves about "friends like this . . ."
1
Once again Mr. Friedman reveals himself to be 'the Great Explainer.' The policy continuum from transaction to transformation seems to fit the choices here. I am left to worry how we craft nuanced and complex policies and insinuate them among our allies with a government led either by the bellicose, the hamstrung, or the family. Mr. Friedman describes a 3-dimensional chess match - with very high stakes - being played by a monomaniac with the attention span of a 3-year old.
So even if we ultimately choose to fight the right fight and to define the right outcomes, can we possibly hope to pull off a win?
1
The existential advantage that China holds over the United States is its reliance on empirical evidence when making key decisions. That is in sharp contrast to the United States where political dogma, lobbying interests,and the placation of certain Congessional constituencies can be dispositive. While recognizing their insidiously repressive domestic policies and suppression of Uighur and Tibetan minorities, their major economic and foreign policy decisions are not based on demagoguery, potical dogma, and incompetence, as is the case with the Trump administration.
3
@Don Shipp. Most Chinese don't take western-style projective religion seriously.
You’ve given us, and by us Tom, I mean Americans; not Democrats and Republicans, real food for thought!
It seems because of all the chaos of the past two years, most of us have taken our eyes off of world reality! What worries me most is that our political system is on life support. It lacks real direction. Twenty Five candidates with Fifty different solutions on how to beat Trump without any real path to fixing our planet.
Maybe the best solution is to vote someone into office who can just bring us back to normality so we can catch our breath before having to dive into the real challenges that face our planet.
1
@Eric Cosh: Our political system is a relic of liberty to enslave. And the US is the last holdout on the planet from the Metric system. Americans have to be taught it before they can learn physics.
1
Friedman outlines the enormous consequences of dealing with both Iran and China.
China is a rising world power. While it’s widely covered about its military and economic ambitions, China has been launching various diplomatic maneuvers in Africa, Asia and Latin America as Trump alienates much of the world.
In the case of Iran, ripping up one of America’s greatest diplomatic achievements, the Iran Nuclear deal, along with punishing sanctions felt most by everyday Iranians, is a consequential blunder.
What both situations prove is the absolute incompetence of Trump and his administration to lead our foreign policy. Economic warfare against China and Iran will have long term fallout for the United States.
Both Chinese and Iranian leaders not to mention allied places like Canada, Mexico, NATO countries and the E.U. can never trust this president, not that he has much credibility beyond his base in the United States.
252
@Jack Shultz
That's why any future agreements need to be done by treaty so that a president cannot undo them without congressional approval. President Obama knew he could not get the Iran deal approved by congress so he went around them, which was his only option. That left it open for Trump to withdraw.
7
What is worse, is that even after Trump is gone, no matter who is elected to replace him, the world will remember that the US may elect another Trump like figure in the future.
The Trump Presidency has devalued any future agreements made with the US government, as the world has learned that the commitments made by any President can be abandoned by the succeeding one.
147
An unfortunate truth.
4
All this looks like acting as if the world hasn't changed. Right now, India is in drought, and Australia's drought is ramping up. Parts of Europe are getting ready to face yet another record breaking heatwave; the last one killed 15,000 people. Antarctica and the Arctic are melting and the sea ice is at its lowest point ever for this part of the year in the Arctic. Half of Greenland's icesheet is melting and the temperatures have ranged 40 degrees higher than the normal. And scientists say permafrost melting is now 70 years earlier than expected, releasing methane. CO2 emissions are still rising. Those facts were news within the last two weeks.
So really, the idea that trade wars, data, oil etc. mean anything in the near future? It's survival time, and our leaders across the globe have betrayed us all by refusing to act fast enough to sufficiently regulate the dozen or so companies most responsible for climate change. Nope, we still subsidize the oil and gas industries even though their profits are enormous, but refuse to subsidize new infrastructure and clean energy. Our press has not put these pieces together or given climate change or rather, the climate emergency, the attention it deserves.
So I don't care if China rules the world. Maybe China could actually accomplish something re climate change, since it appears corporations, democracies and republics are too enamored of cash and profits to take the construction actions required.
346
Amen. Most people don’t realize 2100 is as close as their grandchildren and the world then will differ in many ways especially heat and its attendant effects. As it stands using current projections costs from environmental damage will have serious impacts on the global economy, food supply will be reduced per capital the with the increased population and decreased agricultural productively, and, the spread of tropical disease from northward moving vectors like mosquitoes.
That is the issue for us and for our grandchildren. This stuff is fluff in the long run.
48
@Barbara
Not so sure I would count on China to address the climate emergency, "Chinese corporations are building or planning to build more than 700 new coal plants at home and around the world, some in countries that today burn little or no coal."
8
@Barbara
Hear Hear!!!
6
IMHO neither China nor Iran (and we might add North Korea) are going to change because of US pressure. The only country that we can hope to change is our own. One positive move would be to withdraw from the proven folly off trying to play world policeman anywhere in Asia. A second would be to create a policy of balanced foreign trade here at home. That would consist of granting our exporters $ trade credits that our importers would have to buy on a regulated exchange before releasing equivalent $ to pay for imports. Those, now, are changes that we could make and should.
3
I enjoy and respect Friedman's work, but in this case he has taken two examples of the chaos Trump sows, and makes the logical point that they may make things better or worse. No credit to Trump there.
But what about the dalliance with North Korea that is giving them time to finish their weapons program? What about the abandonment of traditional allies who will no longer be there when we need them? What about giving a tax cut to the wealthy that they don't need, while passing the bill down to the grandchildren of struggling Americans who are losing their faith in capitalism? What about attempting to stop the flow of immigrants whose work is critical to industries like agriculture, child care, hospitality, construction and elder care? What about the destruction of the political comity that makes our system marginally functional?
When historians writes about the decline and fall of America decades or centuries from now, Trump and Trumpism will be front and center.
323
@David Johnson Greetings David. " When historians write about the decline and fall of America decades or centuries from now, Trump and Trumpism will be front and center." Actually, I believe George W. Bush and his administration's decision to invade Iraq will be front and center as the most prominent, destructive and costly governmental mistake in the history of our nation. Following on its heels likely will be Trump and Trumpism.
41
@Mr. Dines
So when (if) historians are around to write about the destruction this country has wreaked on the planet, the debate will be about which
elected leader is worse.
8
Considering how mercilessly Trump mocked President Obama as being weak in relation to Iran and China - really, the world - it is more than a little satisfying to watch Trump struggle to perform.
There is no strategy, and any craziness is no act. Trump fluctuates wildly with Iran - from hostility, to a much-hyped show of basic humanity, to the far-fetched hope of being best friends, back to threats of annihilation, all within a week!
As for China, Trump sure hasn’t made them less of a ruthless competitor in anything. He has neither the discipline nor the intellect to throw China off course. A few toothless threats and accusations aren’t going to throw Xi off his game. And forget about making the United States more respected globally - Trump has made America a punch line, not great. China thrives.
We can only hope that our planet survives Trump getting a taste of his own nastiness; unfortunately, it’s bitter for everyone.
312
Waiting to hear trump talking about the love letters with Iran’s leaders.
17
One thing I can guarantee. Any change in government in Iran that is engineered by the United States will fail utterly and completely.
The United States has been meddling in Iran since World War II, and it has inherited the mantle of pre-World War II Great Britain in doing so. (Many Iranians continue to blame Great Britain for their woes). This has happened so relentlessly and so continuously, that it has engendered a habit of certitude in Iran that, given the slightest chance, the United States will do its damnedest to destroy Iran and its institutions.
This happened in 1953 with the CIA overthrow of Prime Minister Mossadeq and the installation of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. It happend during the Iran-Iraq war, when the U.S. aided Saddam Hussain to fight Iran to a standstill. Then there are the economic sanctions designed to cripple and destroy the country. There are many, many other incidents that reinforce this picture.
The Algiers accords that ended the 444 day hostage crisis extracted a promise from the U.S. that it would "never again interfere in Iran's internal affairs." Well, that promise was almost instantly broken, and now we have Bolton, Pompeo and Trump trying to enact regime change with the despised terrorist organization Mujaheddin-e Khalq (MEK) riding on Bolton's coattails.
Iranians are pressing for internal reform. But they must do it themselves. The United States will destroy this possibility if it continues its interference. No one trusts us in Iran!
409
@William O. Beeman: perfectly stated. The MEK aspect is especially alarming. Thank you for the thoughtful, accurate overview
38
@William O. Beeman Excellent summary of the significant historical benchmarks in our relationship with Iran. 39 years ago now I had an office mate who was Princeton educated clinical psychologist whose father was the oil minister to the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi of Iran. She was Persian and a Zoroastrian by religious orientation. She was not Muslim, not Shia or Sunni. There was en entire stratum of the ruling class of Iran at that time that was Western educated. The Shah was so Westernized himself, which is why the CIA wanted him installed as their ruler. However when the fundamentalist backlash took place some years later, Anahita and her family had to flee for their lives to France. From there Anahita and her sister were sent to the U.S. to continue their education.
Knowing her as I got to over time I can tell you there is a very large population of `Westernized' educated people in Iran. This no doubt motivated our Presidents to go for regime change since there was so much secular knowledge built on a foundation of centuries of Persian Zoroastrianism. This ruling class had no interest in the quaint religious mumbo jumbo of the muslim masses.
Trump, the worst by far of all these presidents, has continued the ham handed attempts to deal with Iran. Obama was the rare very well educated and articulate one who could negotiate the treaty we had in place. Trump's appalling ignorance cannot negotiate a lasting agreement of any kind with them. Trump hates that.
37
@IntheFray: The Bahai were also highly influential in Iran before the Islamic Revolution.
16
"Trump should invite Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China ... to join us in improving that deal."
But the president knows that Barack Obama got there first. Any "improvement" would be trumped (no pun intended) by his knowledge that he has nowhere else to go, that the original agreement was not worth abandoning, and he would lose serious face by backtracking. Even if, Mr. Friedman, the Iranians agreed to not test their missiles to see how far they could fly, the American president is no longer the owner of his decision to walk away from the good that another president performed.
Donald Trump is a singularly ignorant and obstinate man. He would sooner conjure up a reason to turn Iran into the dark side of the moon rather than return to the table to consider that, "Well, perhaps it (the 2015 agreement) wasn't that bad and I'll look better than Obama if I improve it." John Bolton and Michael Pompeo are in Trump's head; he is too unstable and too insecure to seek a better way.
As far as China is concerned, he is consumed with tariffs. He does not understand that China has a larger picture in mind: the spread of its authoritarian culture through Asia. Xi knows where the weak links are: North Korea; Japan; Southeast Asia. The American president yielded precedence in the Pacific Rim by trashing another Obama-era initiative: the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
He simply has no grasp on complex details and his advisors are of similar mind: stolid, unimaginative; doctrinaire.
541
@Red Sox, ‘04, ‘07, ‘13, ‘18
I do agree that there does not seem to be much hope that Trump's 'foreign policies' will eventually be worked into a synchronized and comprehensive whole.
But I think that Mr. Friedman has made a valid point when he says that Trump's agressive and threatening posture towards Iran and China have given the US a stronger negotiating position than under the previous administration. This is an achievement but only if it can be followed through with positive results in future negotiations. Nevertheless it does prove that 'being a little crazy' can work.
1
@RHR
Unfortunately, negotiation is a concept unfamiliar to our president, no matter how great a negotiator he seems to think he is.
18
@Red Sox, ‘04, ‘07, ‘13, ‘18
John Bolton and Mike Pompeo are Adelson people. Trump can not fire them without risking a major rupture with his biggest financial backer. Plus, Sheldon Adelson occupies
a unique position in the Republican Party apart from his contributions to Trump.
Administrations come and go. Adelson people always land on their feet.
16
"And last week Trump came within 10 minutes of bombing Iran — but wisely pulled back —" Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.
4
Friedman talks as if making the lives of 80 million Iranians miserable is something we should be proud of. It’s amazing how callous we can be and call it intellectual discourse!
6
It becomes increasingly clear that Trumps bully tactics, which at first seem to be effective, ultimately reveal him to be what he really is. The damage he is doing to the United States is enormous and will have such long reaching effects. His tactics are eerily similar to the attack in a Bergdorf Goodman dressing room....
His tactics and interest are only measured by him in short term goals. What he doesnt understand is that getting a building built is over once it goes up, but the building of a country on the world stage takes a long time to establish and requires patience, alliances, and understanding of those one wishes to influence. Trumps only answer to any situation is to blast it against a wall with his shoulder....the immigrants, Mexico, Nato, Iran, China...and he thinks he can just leave the dressing room and carry on. Actually, the world stage does not work that way. He is doing irreparable harm, with the USA as his victim. There is a pattern emerging here, and one wonders, how long will it take for the country to recognise that it has been assaulted form within?
1
"If 45 is smart", seriously! Get real. His history is bankruptcy, divorce, and braggadocio. His own lawyer claimed he is a liar and a cheat. Numerous cabinet offices are run by "acting" secretaries. The harsh realities of natural disasters and inhumane conditions he dismisses. If he does not know what is good and true, what is honorable and helpful for all, the value of love and stability over fear and chaos, then how can we expect him to go beyond the hard squeeze of China and Iran?
5
Friedman wisely observes that our president is clueless. very insightful.
And I think if Trump weren't stupid or crazy I would agree more with you, Mr Freidman. I do think 2020 will be the year, not this year, unless some X factor, like impeachment or other situations like that, emerges later this year. And the election, to see if Trump does anything and everything to get re-elected, at the cost of the US and the rest of the world.
3
“I will give Trump credit for one thing: He has imposed real pain on Iran” -
This sounds rather psychopathic doesn’t it. It’s Iranians pain is inflicted on, not “Iran”.
4
Mr. Friedman, you give our so-called president too much credit with actually having a plan.
There is no plan. What he has are "advisors" surrounding him who feed his ego and tell him how great he is. His narcism, greed, power and hatred for anything Obama accomplished are his biggest motivators.
1
The current regime in Iran is in no way the ancient Persian civilization.
Iran is an active sponsor of global terrorism and has been implicitly threatening the USA and the world with atomic weapons.
While appeasement is very popular as it was after WWI toward Germany, appeasement led to the greatest tragedies in all of recorded history, WWII and the Holocaust.
As unpopular as it is in some circles, confrontation of Iran is inevitable sooner or later because Iran would be a constant nuclear threat.
1
"Iran is a bad actor."
Really. Wasn't it the USA that helped Iraq use Chemical Weapons
against Iran in the Iran-Iraq War back in the 1980's?
"Israel can take care of themselves."
Really. Why do we still give Israel, a country of 8 million people, Four Billion Dollars per year which is more than we give to all of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa combined, a very poor region of 950 Million People?
10
Trump's threat to 'obliterate' Iran is similar to (his once-upon-a-time lawyer) Michael Cohen's hundreds of threats to do 'disgusting' things to Trump's opponents and/or critics...or his ex-wife. When the starting point is obliteration where do you go from there? Short of armed conflict (or God forbid - war) the only path left open after such a threat, is to back down and retreat - a strategy the current Commander in Chief is well practiced in. As Goethe once put it: "The coward only threatens when he is safe" ...and when those dogs of war break loose - no-one is safe.
1
Tom Friedman cannot bring himself to acknowledge the signal achievement of bringing the Mulllocacy of Iran to its economic knees. Nor can e bring himself re recognize that Trump's economic brinksmanship with China has little downside for America and everything to lose for China. The fiscal collapse of Iran's murderous, medieval, terror-exporting, gay-hanging, women-stoning and , above all, nuclear bomb craving, government is inevitable. And the winners will be, first the tens of millions of proud Persians and second the entire world. As for China it will blink first, resulting in the restoration of a degree of sanity in our mutual trade relations. Sorry if this is too much sour grapes for a liberal like Friedman to swallow.
I would not waste my time, bytes and newspaper printing ink on this president’s plans and goals.
2
TRUMP'S RECORD OF BUSINESS FAILURES IS PUBLIC! He has done a terrible job of business development. The Trump empire was, in fact, nothing more than a Donald enablement handout on the part of his father, Fred, who bailed out his idiot son to the tune of $1 billion. There is no Fred Trump waiting in the background to bail out Donald's ultrafecklessness countered by extreme recklessness that are the basis of his failed personality and of his failed presidency. The question is transformed, then into, Will The US survive Trump? I think that it's more likely that we'll land on Mars and start a space colony there before the 2020 election than that Trump will develop and implement any meaningful, functional policies, domestic or foreign. I guess he could try to fall in love with the leaders of China and Persia, though the mere idea makes me want to heave. Now there IS one goal that Trump could achieve. He could set up separate meetings with Xi and Khamenai and show them videos of Trump towers being built on Chinese and Persian beaches. Now who could possibly resist Trump's love song? Just imagine the potential of the presence of Trump Towers on beaches in both countries. Would they not be clear commitments to love matches between the leaders of both nations? Surely the leaders of ancient civilizations can be vulnerable to Trump's charm offensives (which are interchangeable with his criminal offenses). Look over the horizon and DUCK! There is Donald the QuacKKK president!
2
Someone needs to just tell Trump that John McCain, when asked about bombing Iran said, “What’s that song, ‘Bomb Bomb Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran,” to highlight his clear support for bombing Iran. Then Trump won’t want to bomb Iran ever and World War III averted.
Friedman world... Israeli nukes and expansionary ambitions, good... Iranian non nukes and invitations by the internationally recognized governments of Syria and Iraq to allow Iran to participate in their reconstruction, bad.
2
Gee? I'm SO happy Thomas Friedman has a goofy optimism about selling our Jackson Pollock in the White House a paint-by-numbers kit! Go AT it; knock yourself out. But not around a utility pole (or telephone POLL, I hope!).
Remember how when the Soviet Union imploded, our "grand gesture" was expanding NATO to Russia's borders?
That mentality, which you seem to share quite completely, seems where "we" (as in US foreign policy - certainly not me) are now.
You still seem stuck on "the Middle East is a tough neighborhood" kick.
A 30 year nuke deal with Iran is okay, but a 15 year one is not? Who're you kidding big guy? This is your "big one?"
What's preventing the Iranian people from achieving their potential is us. Not their government.
Had we lived up to our part of the nuke deal, Iran would be progressing on the road to empowering its people: economically, politically and socially (it already is the most democratic country in the Middle East - a category that includes the two tiered for its own citizens and occupational apartheid Israel). But no, we had had to pull out, and now you have the audacity to suggest that the deal of the century is a 30 year prohibition on Iran, versus the original 15 year old one! I'd say "thank God you're not on our policy or negotiating team." But unfortunately, people who think exactly like you are right now formulating our policy and "negotiations."
I hold out no hope. Our insanity will keep biting us. It has in Iraq, in Afghanistan, with Saudi Arabia, with Israel, with Pakistan, and on and on.
What's the biggest problem on the world stage? The USA. And political thinkers thinking the way you do. You beat the drums to war in Iraq. Now this!
2
Mostly nonsense and wishful thinking. Neither Iran nor China is going to buckle to Trump's pressure. If Vietnam could wait us out for 10+ years (not counting waiting out the French for much longer), who really imagines that Iran/Persia and China will do less. The way out of our mess is to vote Trump out, and as many of his enablers as possible. Then we have to go about the business of rebuilding the trust that Trump has so recklessly squandered in pursuit of policies that will fail without question. While extending the Iran nuclear deal would be a good idea, the means by which this is being attempted is sheer stupidity mixed with an extraordinary lack of understanding of the lessons of history. The damage piles up, and will not stop accumulating until we rid ourselves of Trump and this minions.
2
One aspect you leave out is China is looking to the future. Trump is trying to take us into the past (oil, coal, white supremacy, isolationism). So who will win the race to the 22nd century? As to Iran.....The answer to keeping nukes away from Iran is not by giving them to Saudi Arabia. When you view negotiations as I dictate and you comply, that may work between the U.S. and Iran, but what about between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Is Trump trying to get us out of the middle east or more deeply entrenched? Is he trying to create another Syria? Or prevent one from forming? There is nothing wrong with saying: we both got what we wanted. Trump plays the game as I win and you lose. Then rubs his opponent's nose in it. Put yourself in that opponent's shoes for a minute. Your first inclination would be to punch Trump in the mouth. The first order of negotiating is to be able to appreciate your opponent's point of view. Knowing WHY Iran distrusts the U.S. is important. What we need is a president that offers a warm handshake to his opponent after getting the deal that both sides can live with. Instead of slapping his leg, pointing at his opponent, and laughing in his face.
You have got to be kidding, Mr. Friedman. Would YOU trust Trump to live up to the terms of any deal? This is naive at best. Even NYC contractors and banks (save Deutsche Bank) washed their hands of him long ago because he reneged repeatedly on his "big, wonderful deals." He's a conniving liar who cannot be trusted - ever - and the world is coming to see that all too clearly.
2
Defined plans and goals from a guy that doesn’t know anything unless he sees it on tv?
Sorry, this President is too shallow a pool to have any defining beliefs or ideas. Ask his favorite newscaster for a comment on those widgets.
1
Mr. Trump is all tactic and no strategy. He is the snarling dog chasing after the car who has no idea what to do when he catches up to it.
We can only hope we can last until we can remove him from office without the world again seeing the searing flash of a nuclear fireball over the Middle East or the Korean peninsula.
Trump is very transactional. For himself, and Trump Brands. He has no interests, concerns, policies, strategy beyond that one simple overwhelming need: GREED. In his “ mind “, he can never be too Rich. Or too obnoxious.
I think at this point impeachment, and jail would be a relief for Trump. His "loyal" faction of cabinet members are wanting payment for their loyalty in the form of a war with Iran and the liberals. His puppet master Russia still want their loans paid back and want their bidding done, they want Trump to leave the middle east alone. This must be a tough choice for him, jail or Russian mob... in the movies the character does the right thing in the end and comes clean, but this is Trump who wants to stay out of jail and build a golf course/hotel in every country. I still think if the heat gets to be too much he will fly the newly refurbished AF! to Russian and defect with his family, other than that he won't do anything except harass little kids crossing the border and women...
1
Tom, You are missing the point.
China has been able to throttle the dark side of over one billion people and transform it into energetic contributive social behavior. We have not. Today in America that dark side controls many of our thoughts and actions. It ensnares the rich and the poor, the privileged and the non privileged, the healthy and the sick. It undermines our economic, social, political, philosophical and religious institutions.
The Democracy that grew out of the Enlightenment did reveal the inner brilliance of the human brain cage, but it did not adequately examine its dark side. Understanding and controlling that dark side was left out of the equation. Another problem is that it gave human action near godly status. (Trump is the perfect example) This has left us living in a frightening 21st century societal dimension, one devoid any understanding of how we can construct a new value system able to preserve our life on this planet. We are left in limbo,
This raises a question. Is Democracy a failure? Does China have the answer?
www.InquiryAbraham.com
4
"... imposed nonreciprocal trade arrangements..."
No,no,no. These were not imposed by a then much weaker China. These were acquiesced in by a US foreign policy establishment and were subordinate to the primary goal of drawing China away from an alliance with Russia against the US.
Nothing, no nothing was ever done, in the agreements or domestically in the US to ameliorate the negative effects of these one sided agreements on affected US workers, as other countries have done to help their affected workers.
Sadly, there seems little reason to expect that future US agreements will involve help for negatively impacted US workers. Friedman's columns, like this one, usually are very specific, but when it comes to negatively impacted workers, there are rarely if ever any specifics, only some general statement towards the end of the piece about how there should be some measures to help affected workers. It seems he just doesn't care, or not care that much.
3
so Trump wants 20 other countries to be his spies and pay for the operation claiming he doesn't have the funding. really.
I imagine that his "tactics" are the same as those that led to the bankruptcy of casinos, hotels, resorts and the other business failures.
Can't wait to see how this all turns out.
3
"If Trump is smart, he’ll quickly use his leverage to strike a limited deal with Iran."
An oxymoron if I ever heard one! Have no fear Tom, Trump is not smart..
3
Persia and China, two ancient civilizations, about which Trump has read...nothing. Has been briefed, not at all.
But his specialty in creating crises and then coming to the rescue, will likely be relied up in these instances as in others.
Can God create a stone heavier than God can lift?
Can Trump create a crisis larger than he is able to resolve?
These are the puzzles of our universe.
1
So China has sold a lot of goods to America with superlow prices. This has benefited the poor people in America among others. Now suddenly we accuse China of selling with low prices. When in the world has it happened that you buy at a good price and then later accuse the seller of selling too cheap. The problem in the Middle East is that America for a long time has lost its credibility. Supporting dictators when it suits in the short term and then later on attack them. Support of the dictator the Shah of Iran and support of Saddam Hussein for a short time and for a long time supporting the dictators in Saudi Arabia. The contrast with China is starking. China has more modern infrastructure than America. America takes trillion dollar loanes from China to support the superrich which ends up in the stock market, but no money for the infrastructure. What happened to America?
4
"China also stole others’ intellectual property, forced technology transfers from companies doing business there ..."
What nonsense, China awarded multi billion dollar contracts to companies that would supply them certain technologies. The companies that complied, complied willingly. China didn't steal these technologies, they bought them.
4
as to well thought-through plans for post-war eras in any
country that suffered US invasions or regime changes ...
were there any such plans for afghanistan?
there were none for iraq.
were there any for north korea, just in case?
just to mention very few examples.
my [european] country still provides space
and logistics, ALAS, for a huge US airbase,
while my government violates its own constitution AND
int'l law as US troops & equipment are moved to the ME
and we stand [almost] helplessly by ...
... watching in UTTER DISBELIEF as, yet again,
several world "leaders" prefer lies and escalation
to no-lie-negotiations - while half a million people
starve in yemen and slavery prevails worldwide.
we will soon be the paragone ['e' intended] of animals.
the one thing we steadily improved while we were here
was our ever-expensive [and expansive] weaponry.
1
In basically one sentence Friedman says we can arm the Arabs to keep the Iranians at bay and then described the nastiness of Arab society in the killing of the journalist and the denial of rights to women as basic as driving a car. In reality, why would we not want to see Iran, with 65 percent of its college educated population being women and at least having limited democratic elections, dominating its Arab sheikdom neighbors?
4
Bolton is with Bibi Natenyahu while our President is unilaterally threatening Iran with obliteration, after gifting Golan Heights & Jerusalem to Israel, & his son in law is proclaiming that Palestinians are unfit to govern, so they should be given money to learn businesses while the chosen people in Israel have all the rights to usurp any land in the west bank & Palestinian territories. Looks like Bolton, President Trump, & everyone else of importance are bending over backwards to please Netenyahu & the State of Israel. Cheney, Wolfovitz, Rumsfeld, and Bolton have been playing this game for a long time.
6
This guy now seems to start trying to understand what Trump is doing. It’s good, boy. Let’s see what more will come.
Forget about climate change for a while. The US now has lots of oil. It’s the number one producer in the world! Before giving up the benefits from it and taking care of the future earth, the US has to tame the rogue nations first with its power. They are China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Yes, this might be the last chance to do that. If China grows more to become a monster and start to expose its evil nature all together, it will be too late.
God bless the liberal world! God bless America! God bless Trump, the US President!
1
What are you worried about? Trump will enjoy some quality time with Vladimir this coming week, and his confusion will vanish.
3
Trump reminds me of Alfred E. Newman, what me worry? A stable genius indeed.
3
I see. So the next 3 Friedman Units will be critical in determining how the future pans out?
1
Bullies only when in the short term both China and Iran know that and will act accordingly.
2
It's a stretch to suggest that the despots running (ruining?) Iran today are a continuation of the great Persian civilisation. You'll find it's those in exile who call themselves Persian.
1
Why would Iran agree to extend the Obama nuclear deal from 15 to 30 years when it knows Trump or our next president can just walk away from the deal?
3
From where I sit - which is pretty far south - a president who "acts a little crazy," is not a good thing. But when I read an opinion article like this, I wonder if North Americans can get used to anything. Like: "Crazy."
There seems to be a big tendency to adapt in the United States. To fit in with the prevailing whatever it is. With this guy Trump who two years ago everybody thought was a dangerous crackpot. And that's not a good thing.
Manipulator, con-man, prevaricator, outright liar, attention-seeker, philanderer, Russian agent? All that he is or may be. And that's not something you want to adapt to.
3
What the United States desperately needs, but probably won't get, is a president with strategic vision. Someone who can look at the world scene and see what is important and what is not important. Defend the important but don't waste resources on the unimportant.
Our foreign policy over the last fifty years has been pretty much a record of losing wars and failed policies. Look at the record:
Vietnam consumed vast resources and the lives of thousands of our soldiers all the while creating discord and turmoil at home. But the map of southeast Asia looks the same as it would look if no American soldiers had ever set foot in Vietnam.
The Gulf War (2003) cost probably 3 trillion dollars (if you count healthcare costs for veterans) with thousands of military casualties and an unknown number of Iraqi civilian casualties. It made a shambles of Iraq, helped spawn ISIS, but did not make us better off that I can see.
The Afghanistan War is now in its 17th or 18th years with no end in sight. Another trillions of dollars and thousands of military casualties with little to show for it.
Libya, Syria, the list goes on. Now some people in the United States want war with Iran. The Chinese would probably love for the United States to replay the 2003 Iraq war in Iran. If we get into a real war in Iran, it would probably cost another 3 or 4 trillion and might weaken the U. S. and give China a real advantage in the future.
5
“In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again”. Chauncey Gardner
Waaaaaaaaaay to much credit Thomas.
8
OK, you have shared your thoughts with us re: China and Iran, and they make sense to me. Does Trump read your column? Does Fox News read your column? I doubt it, so I see no possibility that either of those entities will sniff out the right path out of this maze of pain that he has lead us into. But, keep on plugging...we all have to do something to keep our hopes up.
5
Your suggestion that we arm the Sunnis and dump the Saudis (who are also Sunnis) is a nonstarter. We already have varying degrees of military cooperation with the Sunni states in the Gulf. The problem is the numbers. The population of Iran is 81 million. The combined population of Sunni majority states (excluding the Saudis) in the Persian Gulf is 22 million. That's fewer people than Texas. The numbers don't add up. Additionally, there are no guarantees that any Sunni coalition in would be a cohesive one. For better or for worse we are stuck with the Saudis.
2
The Trump republicans are imposing pain(sanctions) on Iran,North Korea and even Venezuela).
But no country has imposed pain(sanctions) on us.
We have become the sanction capital of the world but what makes us so hot.
From the numbers that i see, our country has been the cause of more deaths in unnecessary wars(started by us) than any other nation for the past 74 years (1945)
Our "sanctions" also starve poor people in poor countries.
Sanctions(starving others) is getting to be a habit here
but no one seems to care that much.
"Do it our way or we will starve you out". This is not worthy of
"The Greatest Country on Earth(maybe we are or maybe not)
9
China out waited the Industrial Revolution.
I'm pretty sure China can out wait Donald Trump.
8
"But we are where we are, and I will give Drumf credit for one thing: He has imposed real pain on Iran"
Can someone explain what Iran has done?
5
Iran is a giant state sponsor of terrorism. They’re a “Death to America/Death to Israel” theocracy that is attempting to develop nuclear weapons. Other than that I can’t understand why anyone would be concerned!
@ robt, Iran has never stared any ear outside its borders.
Snapshots of a sad history:
Persia losing its wars with Russia due to the incompetencies of its kings, and losing a great portion of its northern territories.The incompetent kings each cementing their power with getting backing from foreign powers, such as Britain or Russia. The constitutional revolution (1906) and an effort to reduce the influence in Iran of foreign powers.
America starting to interfere in the middle east. The CIA overthrowing a democratically elected prime minister whose only sin was to nationalize Iranian oil. An Iron rule of an American backed autocratic king and his secret police, solidifying the view that America does not care about the interests of ordinary Iranians and is only after its own interests in the region.
The king who nevertheless had a nationalistic heart, in the end of his rule, turning critical of the west and lecturing them about the Persian civilization, and playing with oil prices (watch interviews of the shah with western journalists). All the while the west housing and giving refuge to the person who later became the leader of the movement that overthrew the shah.
A popular revolution quickly turned off course. Mis-guided students climbing the walls of the American embassy. Saddam Hussein using a moment of weakness to invade Iran. America helping Saddam Hussein by selling him weapons. Young Iranians going to the battlefront, giving their life to save the country. About 500000 of them died.
And now this. Where is hope?
7
What has Iran done to deserve crippling sanctions? The U.S. reneged on the Nuclear Agreement. Yes, the Iranian regime is
repressive. But the Saudi Regime is incomparably worse.
Iran’s “crime” is that is not a U.S. lackey state in the Middle East.
It is accused of “meddling” by the U.S.
What a sad joke. This is from a nation that invaded Iraq and the catastrophic consequences of that are still unfolding.
The U.S. is an Imperialist bully.
As far as “regime” change is concerned. The country that most needs regime change is the good ol’ USA.
14
It Mr.Trump and his team would really want to take on China - then they would have to beat them with their own weapons: massive investments into education, infrastructure and innovation but he did and does the opposite by cutting education budgets and prioritizing industries that passed their peaks a lot time ago like power generated from coal. Is he going after research funding? Yes he is and that will probably be applauded by some ignorant fans of the President. China is winning because it expands all around the world and especially into countries and areas that are harboring the raw materials future technologies are depending on. The massive investments into education in China are showing already results. Just review the number of patent applications: China has outpaced the USA for a while now with the shear number of applications and especially if counted against the GDP. It is even way worse when it comes to the protection of designs and products. The idea that China is only stealing ideas from partners is dangerously simplistic. They have advanced - with our greed driven help - to a level that they are better positioned for the technology challenges of the future than we are. It is predictable that the trade war will end without a resolution of any of the problems it was supposed to be started for and it does not change any of the structural problems we have here in this country. Therefore it is already clear who is losing: us.
7
Friedman says, "Iran, by contrast, is led by a narrow-minded, aging cleric who’s been focused on acquiring the most important technology of the 20th century, nuclear weaponry..."
If he has been so focused, why did he allow his President to sign onto the JCPOA?
3
There's nothing to worry about. I already told you that we have force fields now. So this is hyped up for nothing. The militaries of the world are now basically confined to their own countries. Domestic terrorism is what I worry about most.
The critical phrase here is "if Trump is smart...." Well, it is blindingly obvious that Trump is not smart. And compounding his lack of intelligence are his ignorance, arrogance, pettiness, and narcissim. He simply has no idea what he is doing. As for China, I have doubts the Chinese model for development will work as well in the 21st century as it did in the late 20th century. And as for Iran, does Iranian influence in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza really threaten any core U.S. interests? No.
5
Hmmm. I think Friedman is attempting reverse psychology. May be, just may be, by providing this thoughtful analysis of the situation, Trump may start to believe he is a real deal maker and follow Friedman's advice. The trouble is that Trump has no grand plan nor is he capable of appreciating Friedman's analysis. Trump's deal making and behavior is so erratic resembling someone with an early onset of dementia. Alas, Trump does not read!
6
The alleged virtues of extreme present hedonism confront the historical memories of millennia. An extreme failure to communicate is inevitable.
Trump keeps saying, and no one challenges him, that the JCPOA was not ratified by the Senate, so it is not binding. Wrong. The JCPOA was ratified by the Senate in 1945, when the US joined the UN and agreed to be bound by all Security Council resolutions. So abrogating the UN Security Council resolution is a violation of International Law, and the US, the EU, and China are all in violation, since all agreed to trade with Iran if it complied with the terms of the JCPOA, and the UN inspectors have verified that Iran is in full compliance.
I find it fascinating that the US courts ruled that not one Saudi had anything to do with 9/11, it was all funded and planned by Iran. No proof, no evidence, but US courts don't need such silly things as proof or evidence, just Bush, Jr's 2003 State of the Union address that Iran planned and funded 9/11, and it was perpetrated by Iran's co-religionists: the Taliban, led by Mullah Omar, Saddam and his Republican guard, and Kim's father and the DPRK. And the US news media all agree: if Bush, Jr said it, and Obama agreed, it must be true.
In 1988, the US destroyed the entire Iranian navy and shot down an Iranian passenger plane, and Iran could do nothing. Since 1988, Iran has been building a military that can shoot back.
Iran will lose a war, but they'll take a lot down with them, more than the US can afford. And International Law says Iran is in the right, and the US is not.
7
An interesting article, but the suggestions about renegotiating the Iran nuclear treaty for 30 years is just dumb. The US had a treaty in place and tore it up simply because the new president didn't like what the former president had done. Why should Iran contemplate a new treaty with the US when they were complying with the old one? Oh and by the way, the US started all this with the last attempt at regime change in Iran!
7
I wish journalists and pundits would stop using morally charged words like "suffocating, rotten regime" and "bad actor" to describe Iran. What has the US been in the region? Fabricating lies to invade and destroy Iraq and bringing misery to millions of innocent Iraqis. Choking Iraq and now Iran with crippling sanctions that affect ordinary people and children indiscriminately. The CIA-backed 1953 overthrow of a democratically elected Prime Minister in Iran. Supplying arms to Saudi Arabia to decimate Yemen. The list goes on and on. Let's be a little more objective in how we analyse players in the region, and whom we call "bad actor".
10
Funny how Mr. Friedman has decided that yes, Iran is making nuclear weapons, yes, Iran blew up the tankers, yes, Iran is doing this and that when all of the above could be completely false assumptions. Even the US intelligence has admitted that Iran is not making nuclear weapons, but Mr. Friedman wouldn't mind to spread Trump and Netanyahu's unfounded claims. While Saudi Arabia just made a tiny little mistake of chopping up a journalist and no mention of Saudis creating and funding Al Qaeda, Taliban, ISIS,... 9/11 attackers.
5
Some people just want to see the world burn.
Or, they just want to profit from the disturbance they cause.
Either way, I hope young voters rise up and put an end to this malevolence.
4
Tom
You are counting on Trump to act rationally, Trump believes he is putting a show on reality TV. Trump is missing any semblance of present day reality that is so obvious to most of us because we read. Trump has not even read the Mueller report. The analysis of any issue that is not presented in a 15 second sound bite is not for Trump.
Most of his actions in foreign Policy realm is either what Bibi/MBS tells him about Iran or the words of Pompeo and Bolton.
The op-ed completely skips the role of the Republicans in the US Congress. It is a co-equal branch of our system of Government. We do know that the Apartheid regime of Israel has a bipartisan support in US Congress. Trump is self-centered egomaniac and when Bibi offered him the naming rights on one illegal settlement tower as the Trump Towers he made the deal and announce the annexation of Golan – which ensures the state of war between Syria/Israel and Israel/Lebanon (Sheba farms are claimed by Lebanon.
Re China, Trump is going to make a deal at G-20 and claim victory. It is only a matter of time that due to Trumpian policies both domestic and Foreign we would be suffering for the next century, and yes Trump’s name would remain as the one who pushed us in the abyss and the Republicans watched.
Let us pray that 2020 would bring in a peace President, it cannot be Trump but all indications are that the Democrats are not going to put their act together and Trump may win and avoid jail for the crimes against America.
4
Why does everyone believe that Trump really came within 10 minutes of bombing? That would be the easiest thing in the world to fake. Just tell a lie, that's so easy. Who behind him would contradict it, no matter how mortifying it might have been?
3
Mr. Friedman's rational analysis of complex issues with two adversaries has real goals articulated. If only we had a rational president who could understand any of this. Trumps observable behavior and actions do not give me any comfort he has the wherewithal resolve any of these problems. Trump will come out with some nonsense about "love letters" and "I trust them because they promised me", just like North Korea. America will be worse off than if he did nothing.
3
Iran is not Persia, and has not been for quite some time, either by name or nature. It is a theocratic state governed by religious zealots who wish only harm to the US and its interests.
1
"Does Trump want regime change in Iran or just a change of behavior? Does he want to shrink the trade deficit with China or just get fair access for our companies? It’s not clear to me and doesn’t seem clear to him."
Not clear to the Chinese or Iranians either. Trump is all over and on every side of every issue said ing whatever the current audience in front of him wants to hear. Remember the election campaign? Nobody really knew what he would do when he entered the office of the Presidency. Now the same ambivalent, hateful tone and base focused meanness is all he's got and the world's economy hangs in the balance. Very scary!
3
I agree with most of the article's points on China, having lived there for over 7 years. Maybe one statement cannot be repeated often enough. There will be no switch of power away from the communist party. Just one word you use makes me cautious. You speak of the U.S. allowing China to... That is exactly the way the U.S. is presenting itself around the world right now. Allowing or not allowing other countries to do this or that. You do not keep or make friends that way but rather create people waiting for you to show signs of weakness.
3
You are absolutely wrong if you think there was any "wisdom" in Trump's ten minute pull back last week. Trump has no idea what he is doing on the international stage, but he does like good drama. He didn't pull anything back. He just agreed with one of his toadies who told him it would make big headlines if he did. They advised the pull back because they realized, finally, that he had no clue that he was about to jump into a war. There is no wisdom leading this administration, just another good television moment.
4
"Iran . . . focused on acquiring the most important technology of the 20th century, nuclear weaponry"
That's what Netanyahu says. No other responsible investigator in the world agrees.
They all say the attempt, if it was, didn't get far, and was abandoned many years ago.
They all say the nuclear agreement was working, to ensure things stayed that way.
So no, that is not what this confrontation is about.
It is really about Hamas and Hezbollah for Israel, and Wahhabi dominance of Islam for the Saudis.
Just like in Iraq, nuclear threats are an excuse to do what they want to do, want for other reasons. WMD is a lie. Again.
Friedman knows that. Yet, this includes not a word about that.
9
No nation except Israel and Saudi Arabia trusts the U.S.. Why should the mullahs be any different?
The U.S. has heaped unjustified and disproportionate pain on the Iranian population for over 40 years. Another word for this is 'bullying'. Ask tiny Cuba about this. This relentless bullying, and the fear of chaos with Saudi-backed ISIS filling the void, are the reasons why Iranians continue to support an exceptionally corrupt regime.
Mr. Friedman, your sentiments are praiseworthy but impractical. Every decision on Iran made since 1980 has had the hidden hands of dirty Saudi money and billionaire Zionists behind it. This applies equally to Reagan, the Bushes and to Obama.
So it's not just Trump's word that is despised by Iranians. It is the word of U.S. politicians in general. Before you can even contemplate changing the mindset of corrupt Iranian politicians you have to re-educate your own.
5
It is so clear to us how China stole our intellectual property. It is as clear to China how we came to own this country. It is even clearer to Mexico how we got California andTexas.Let us not get on this high horse, who is more honest and moral and pure. stealing has bee a norm for a very long time. The last question Mr. Friedman asks, " what kind of economy we are going to have going forward?" What Mr. Friedman really want to know but, is afraid to ask is, are we still going to control the economy of the world, after all this is over. We make the rules, we enforce the rules, we also change the rules when we don't like them and we are the judge and jury.Things are looking a little dicy right now Mr.Friedman. Amrit
3
Trump can't do it your way, because he would have to share credit. Trump has never, his entire life, shared credit for anything. Trump, his entire life, has also never taken responsibility for any of his numerous failures. Watch for this to happen yet again. The pain Trump causes in China is not felt only in China. Plenty in the US are feeling pain from Trump's Trade War with China. A reasonable person might question if Trump's Tariffs are the best way to confront China and bring about needed change... some reasonable people might have proffered the TPP as an alternative. Tainted with the label of Obama, we never will know because Trump exercised the core of all his "strategy" - to erase anything he can of President Obama's achievements. In Trump's confrontation with Iran, he hasn't yet cause the direct US pain that thousands of US soldiers and families suffer due to GW Bush's Middle East and Afghani conflagrations, but Trump is still working in that direction, smug in the knowledge that when it was his time to go, his "bone spurs" prevented his service. Now his brainless "strategy" risks the injury and death of US soldiers brave enough, and honorable enough, to serve. There's no deep "strategy" here, there is just Trump bumbling along, putting others at risk for his own aggrandizement, always willing to grab any credit, and shuck any blame if things go sideways. With Trump's incompetence, things almost certainly will... watch him then. "We'll see."
1
I read Mr. Friedman's articles and feel a breath of rationality in what appears to be a world gone mad. But after finishing the piece I quickly come to my senses knowing that our Commander in Chief is our Charles VI of France---"Charles the Mad." Our Donald th Mad relishes is chaos and had little or no interest in an ordered world.
Trump keeps saying, and no one challenges him, that the JCPOA was not ratified by the Senate, so it is not binding. Wrong. The JCPOA was ratified by the Senate in 1945, when the US joined the UN and agreed to be bound by all Security Council resolutions. So abrogating the UN Security Council resolution is a violation of International Law, and the US, the EU, and China are all in violation, since all agreed to trade with Iran if it complied with the terms of the JCPOA, and the UN inspectors have verified that Iran is in full compliance.
I find it fascinating that the US courts ruled that not one Saudi had anything to do with 9/11, it was all funded and planned by Iran. No proof, no evidence, but US courts don't need such silly things as proof or evidence, just Bush, Jr's 2003 State of the Union address that Iran planned and funded 9/11, and it was perpetrated by Iran's co-religionists: the Taliban, led by Mullah Omar, Saddam and his Republican guard, and Kim's father and the DPRK. And the US news media all agree: if Bush, Jr said it, and Obama agreed, it must be true.
In 1988, the US destroyed the entire Iranian navy and shot down an Iranian passenger plane, and Iran could do nothing. Since 1988, Iran has been building a military that can shoot back.
Iran will lose a war, but they'll take a lot down with them, more than the US can afford. And International Law says Iran is in the right, and the US is not.
2
I am all for regime change......starting with Trump.
Trump has no clue as to what he is doing and it will not end well.
Why should it?
3
Trump's presidency has become both chaotic and a joke. Totally incompetent and completely foolhardy. His sole concern is himself and making money for himself. He does not have one iota of concern for the American people unless they are pandering to his ego. He expects everybody to lie for him, to agree with him, to do as he bids without question. He insults friends and allies. He withdraws from agreements and treaties but expects others to stick to their side of the bargain. He has no regard for the rule of Law and he is totally untrustworthy and without honour or conscience. A very dangerous man who is destroying democracy in the USA.
It's really a shame that Americans make such little distinction between the Iranians and the Arabs. I work with a 3D design package that has a worldwide usership. There is a forum for questions and it is possible in many cases, to see where a user is situated, and their gender. I'm always impressed by the distinction between the Iranian and Arab worlds. Not only are there many Iranian users, there are a high percentage of women among them. Meanwhile, there are very few users I can identify as being from an Arab country at all.
What do the Beverly Hillbillies in Saudi Arabia have to offer us or the world? Just money, acquired effortlessly, by poking a hole in the ground and watching it flow out. No wonder they've got 10,000 indolent princes who've got nothing to do but shop. The sooner we can disenthrall ourselves from these torpid, incurious people, the better.
2
Trump is going to dominate China - through strategic brilliance? Trump is going to reform Iran - by threatening to unleash Bolton's mustache?
I'm going to solve global warming - by leaving the freezer door open.
It isn't the world that's flat, Mr. Friedman, its the results from someone's recent brain scan.
3
So our choice is between the doublespeak of the “strategic patience” paradigm or the “crazy donald” funhouse. We have gone from a President who rolled over for China to a President who grasps that things cannot go on as they have with China, but has no coherent idea about how to implement change in that relationship. We have gone from a working nuclear deal with Iran to no deal and the present danger of war. Obama was thoughtful but not given to excessive oomph; the current guy has tectonic oomph unleavened by thought.
1
To quote the president's favorite saying for everything he attempts 'we'll just have to wait and see.'
1
The Donald doesn't need a plan, 'cause Bibi has one.
The Donald's just doing what Bibi wants him to do: Strangle Iran with sanctions so the Mullahs quit making nukes.
Friedman thinks that the Obama agreement works, but the Mossad is better informed than T.L.F
1
Mr. Friedman' paradigm of nations and leaders harkens back to the colonial mindset. A mindset that cannot distinguish between his own biasis and objective reasoning. In his paradigm, he is the patronising American thinker that believes that the Iranian leadership hold back progress of Iranians. Yet, these are the same leadership that has lifted Iran from a nation that was preyed upon to one that is a step away from nuclear power in a sanctioned environment. Mr. Friedman's equating the Iranian supreme leader with Kim Jong shows his lack of understanding between a dictatorship and king ( without the wealth). What makes it worse us that Mr Friedman believes his own hokey pokey world view.
2
Tom, Tom, Tom,
Don't you realize that this week is Israel Week and Trump is very busy trying to bring peace to Israel by selling an economic plan to the Palestinians even though they will not be present and do not endorse it? Do you know how hard that is? Good thing that Mr. Kushner is on the case. There are still 5 days left in the week. For goodness sake, give peace a chance. We can get back to the other stuff next week.
1
Ascribing any plans, strategies or thoughts to Him is like thinking your Cat is doing Algebra. Ain’t gonna happen.
Seriously.
3
"I will give Trump credit for one thing: He has imposed real pain on Iran...."
Tom Friedman has loved simple solutions, ever since he supported the invasion of Iraq, which led not to democratization of the region but to untold pain and misery for millions.
Misery for Iranians is no reason for celebration. Trump pulled out of the agreement that prevented Iran from developing nuclear weapons and imposed sanctions that have pushed Iran into a box; now, he threatens Iran and then pulls back, confusing every country in the region and making a miscalculation by one side or the other likely.
Friedman is not a reliable or particularly insightful commentator, blinded as he is by the need always to justify Israel's thuggish behavior.
5
As always with Mr. Friedman, he does mention another Middle East country that is “suppressing a hugely talented and culturally rich people, blocking them from realizing their full potential.”
OK, so we might have to wage war against China & Iran simultaneously. But look on the bright side -- we're exchanging love letters with North Korea.
3
A lot is wrong with this article, but one thing is especially troubling: The author heaps praise on Trump for imposing sanctions on Iran, which effectively means he praises him for ripping up the nuclear agreement that had been working according to all its members.
And then he adds that Iran should agree to putting basically the same agreement back in place with an extended timeline of 30 instead of 15 years.
That is delusional. The damage is done and why should any country return to the table to negotiate with a bullying government that doesn’t care about potential agreements anyway?
Stop justifying the actions of this clueless and planless nightmare in the White House.
There is no right life in the wrong one, as Adorno said, and the NYTimes can do better than that. But then they also initially supported the Iraq war if I remember correctly.
5
'Then we could sit back and let transformation emerge from within Iran, the only place it can emerge from, through its own people, who deserve better and eventually will get rid of this suffocating, rotten regime. Yes, it may take years, but we outsiders can’t rush Iranian history. Trying to force regime change on Iran right now could unleash disorder and refugees of massive proportions there', that sounds a little bit similar to what was already happening, oh hang on a minute, that sounds very similar..........oh please lets just admit it, it is exactly the same as the deal Obama put on the table, the same deal that he cannot stomach because Obama helped put it in place. Trump is floundering around like an half wit because that is what he is, who really cares what Trump does, he has no credibility, no intelligence and no plan and hopefully no chance of a second term, so lets just hope that we can get out of this without war and in 2020 we can just quietly bang him up for the rest of his miserable life........and the world can get on with one less problem to worry about.
Two things:
1. Friedman wants a deal with Iran. Hmm, why does that sound familiar? Oh right, we HAD a deal with Iran that Trump destroyed because a black president negotiated it.
2. Friedman says that "we can arm the Sunni Arabs to keep Iran at bay." Yes, that policy of arming people in the Middle East has worked out so well in the past.
5
He does have specific goals--- his goal is to stir up his "base" (the basket of deplorables) with demagogic ranting and hysteria. He doesn't give a hoot about Iran or China. Or America for that matter. Your mistake is thinking that he does.
3
In any sane, democratic country people would go out on the streets by the millions and the governing bodies would easily get rid of a president who behaves in such way like Trump did the last few days. And i am not even talking about everything he pulled of the last two and a half years.
It is just mindblowing, staggering, unbelieveable what he sends out into the world. The result is that many countries and their citizens dont take the US serious anymore. The comment the Iranian leader made are the thoughts of many, many people around the world.
But the main question: How does he get away with this insane behaviour for so long? Nobody seems to have the guts to take him on. It is a lot of chitchat about the guy but nothing happens.
Good luck America, hope you will ever recover from this lunatic. Or maybe you are just happy with what was elected........
2
Seems to me that the US ignores WTO rulings it does not like, and now violates its rules in the name of so-called national self-interest. How can any country expect the US to negotiate in good faith these days and why should they have any confidence that any agreement with the Trump administration will be honored?
The article also has me wondering why the same kind of moral arguments surrounding regime change in Iran or China, does not apply to the US. From the outside, it looks to me like America is becoming the rogue state and the potential major threat to the rest of the planet. I know it goes through the motions and puts on a good show, but is the US even a real democracy anymore?
4
Most of the oil the U.S. now produces, and the tar sands oil from Canada, are not the types that can be used to produce gasoline. The oil coming through the Middle East is. Therefore, saying that if there are disruptions in ME oil deliveries China will have long lines at the gas pumps and gas shortages but not the U.S. is wrong. However, I agree with Mr. F. on the other points he makes.
We had a deal with Iran. We could have turned our attention to China and their very real ascendancy in the world. But no, we're going down the road of the Iraq war all over again. By the way, you thought the Iraq war was a good idea.
We should quickly reinstate the anti-nuclear agreement with Iran on the same terms. It's good until 2030, and we have other more pressing issues. Iran can then begin trading with the rest of the world as the Europeans have been advocating.
Trump's policies of threatening everyone, friend or foe, have had little effect; except for appealing to his macho following. This next election will tell if it's still a winning strategy.
7
Deft analysis, Tom.
Iran and North Korea are stuck in a Cold War era episteme, whose main objective is to develop a nuclear arsenal and use it as a negotiating tool and deterrent. Meanwhile, their economies are shattered and their citizens struggling.
North Korea has the lowest GDP of any nation with a nuclear arsenal and the situation is dire for its poorest citizens. Iran's theocrats have mortgaged the future of the nation's youth to its nuclear ambitions and its ongoing feud with Israel, the US, and its Sunni neighbors.
The Chinese Communist Party has kept its eyes on the prize, flooding the West with its best students and learning from and adapting state-of-the-art Western technology.
When will Iran and North Korea give up its nuclear ambitions and follow China’s lead?
More important, how will the US manage competing national interests as part of a viable global economy and world order?
Most shocking is the inability of these nations’ citizenry to exert their will and shape their destinies. North Korea is in thrall to the scion of a ruling family dynasty, China approved lifetime tenure for their leader, and Khamenei is an eighty-year-old who has ruled Iran for three decades.
As for the US, well, what more can we say? Apparently, it was the will of the people, or rather, the Electoral College.
1
Mr Trump will fail. His tactics of pressure and public insults will not persuade any one to negotiate seriously or even trust him. Iran had had bad
experience with USA since 1950s
that has been affirmed by MrTrump
pulling out of the deal negotiated
over almost 2 years. Iran complied
while USA didn't. China used to
be number 1 in GDP for a long time
till 18th century when the crumbling
monarchy created chaos and imperialists exploited to keep China
down and advance their own interests.
China is determined not to be
humiliated by the west like in 1840s,
Mr. Trump is determined to humiliate
them. No negotiated settlement is
likely.
3
The U.S. and relationships with China, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Japan, everyone and everything and so on?
The key changes in the world appear to be technological, it's technological advance which is dictating political economic reality, structure of individual societies, civilizations, and alliances. Overwhelmingly we hear about different types of political economic structures, for example the freedom of the West contrasted with Russia or China, and of course we hear about political differences within nations, obviously right and left wing differences in the U.S. but all of that seems vastly secondary to technological advance which is occurring whether people vote on it or not and which will shape societies in the future whether people like it or not.
Probably the biggest myth of modern times is that as the arrow of technological advance drives forward it can be bent to support this or that type of political economy, thus AI is used negatively, to prop up a totalitarian structure, in China but will be used for freedom in the U.S. But it looks to me as if technologists in all societies have a free pass to develop everything from WMD to AI and the results of this work will dictate political economic structure in all societies in the future, and it doesn't look all that promising to me. It's actually quite ironic: Countless people can be punished for writing the wrong thing (wrong views) but our technology heroes press ahead and with the 'right views' all will be fine.
Trump’s strategies with both Iran and China are to enact punitive measures which reaffirm his political and economic power. For example, Trump’s tariffs are accompanied by no strategic plan, just by chest thumping and a declaration of a win for him vs countries with whom we have trade deficits. Ditto Iran and sanctions: no strategic goal, other than to achieve what the nuclear agreement was already doing. But a lot of bravado and tough talk. Tom Friedman should probably stop wishing for something that Trump and his appointees are incapable of: competence and decency.
2
Mr. Friedman ignores a central issue across Middle East countries: Israel has the bomb, big-time, while they don't. No serious U.S. policy is ever going to impose any kind of permanent ban on nuclear weapons for Islamic nations while Israel brazenly poses its own armory of such weapons to reinforce its conventional dominance of Middle East military establishments. The real issue for U.S. policy-makers on this issue is that we are never going to come to our senses about this question just so long as we insist on an alliance with an Israel which is as intransigent on this question as the Islamic nations are on this and other issues. We have a permanent impasse on this question which this country simply can't evade without a serious and complete re-assessment of our relationship with Israel.
2
Trump's only tactics seem to be pressure and insults. This probably works well when he stiffed vendors and banks who did business with the Trump Organization. However, it does not seem to work well with foreign governments. My hope is that we make it to November 2020 without creating some fiasco that can not be undone by the next administration. People don't trust Trump--why would they? Without trust nothing of consequence gets done.
6
Tom,
I disagree completely, you can not reach any workable agreement when one loses everything, most importantly their dignity. We had a very good workable agreement with Iran, unfortunately, it did not have trump's name on it.
China is poised to compete in the twenty-first century, we are too busy destroying the planet. Who holds the cards in that arrangement? Of course, trump will fold, if China offers him the ability to build hotels and golf courses with his name in gold.
7
But has Trump so alienated European powers that it will be impossible to secure their support in fashioning a new deal with Iran? Can they ever again trust America and, more importantly, will Iran adhere to any agreement knowing that reneging is acceptable? Also, Russia is starting to show why it wanted Trump elected. it has been able to manipulate him, turn against him without response and sabotage him when it can do so to its advantage. Russia's support for the finding that our drone was in Iranian airspace probably came as a shockingly to Trump. Your suggestions, as always, are on point. I just don't know if they can be accomplished.
5
@Disillusioned: If an agreement with the US is not made into a treaty by the Senate, it may just blow away like ashes in the wind.
1
Mr. Friedman, I'm sure all will end well, if as you say, Trump is "smart". That's why most of us are in despair at the moment.
8
Mr. Friedman states that "In short, Trump has created real leverage for transactional or transformational deals with both countries."
Will find out by the end of the week (G20 Summit) if this holds true where China is concerned. I am skeptical whether that will pan out. The Justice Department's insistance on having Canada extradite Meng Wanzhou (Huawei's CFO) to the U.S. is a strike against China's honor. I would be surprised if president Xi agrees to a deal that doesn't address Ms. Wanzhou's status.
Where Iran is concerned? Persians have no fear of America--have we forgotten 1979?
6
@Phil Hurwitz
Or the removal of Mossadegh in the 50's and the subsequent installation of the Shah.
Friedman asserts that the Iranians are governed by an "aging cleric who’s been focused on acquiring ...nuclear weaponry, to help it dominate its region."
This is only half true. They are rules by an aging cleric, but Iran is the only Middle East country that is part of the International Atomic Energy Association.
And there is no evidence that they have or intend to have a nuclear weapons program. This is Bibi Netanyahu's line with his little bomb cartoon he held up at the UN, repeated by Friedman as if it were fact.
The current treaty with Iran, signed by the permeant members of the UN Security Council imposed the most rigorous inspection regime of any nuclear state. By all accounts, Iran has followed the terms of the treaty. It's the US that withdrew.
As for territorial ambitions, Iran did not send troops into Syria until after the Saudi's and the Emirates funded a rebel army made up largely of Sunni Jihadists re0named the Al Nusra brigade. They had only recently beheaded over a hundred Syrian POW's and did so on video, emulating ISIS.
Rather than an effort to dominate the region, the Iranian response was to protect its southern border with Syria.
Analysts have characterized most of Iran's efforts as reactions to moves by the West, including their reaction to the assination of six of their scientists by the Israeli's and a CIA sponsored infiltration of their border with Iraq.
Iran is a regional power. But so far, unlike its neighbors a very predictable one.
21
The US produces over 17 million barrels of oil per day right now and consumes a bit less than 20 million. But it’s largely from fracking existing reserves. We haven’t found net new oil in a long time. Oil is running out all over the world. It just is. China is right to focus on EVs and advanced tech but is coming up short in energy provisioning and it is unclear that they can replace all of the imported fossil fuels they burn with domestic renewables. Maybe they can. They have a severe water crisis brewing (as does Iran and 32 other countries according to WRI reports) that could make them much more inward looking OR it could make them lash out at global weak spots to take what they want with their new military. The great worry is what nuclear tipped bad guys do to provision adequate supplies of food and water in an over populated world. The play now is to focus on sustainability. That’s the thing that needs leadership.
12
Trump "wisely pulled back" from bombing Iran?
Wisdom and Trump are not that well acquainted.
Wiser heads may have stopped Trump from acting by providing him with their insights, but that's very different from locating the wisdom for the decision in Trump. We already know, in fact, that Trump made up all the last minute stuff--clearly in order to make himself look like a thoughtful human, which is not really ever going to work.
There is a similar problem with the "If Trump is smart" part of Friedman's argument. It basically just becomes a fantasy after that.
19
I enjoy reading Mr. Friedman's column. Maybe I am an old cynic but I don't think that The Donald thinks about any of the things that Mr. Friedman talks about.
In the mind of The Donald, the only things he thinks about are himself and the 2020 election. Everything else is a prop to be pulled out and used as needed for political and PR purposes to play to the trump base. I doubt that personally he knows or cares about policies or most issues.
A key component of the trump base are the evangelicals. Many of them love Israel and Bibi. Bibi says that Iran is evil and must be destroyed. So we have a crisis in the Persian Gulf. I predict that this situation will simmer from now to election day 2020. The Donald probably does not want a war, he just wants to act tough and impress his base. Although it is hard to imagine that he could string out talk of sanctions for another year and a half. He may have to sanction everyone in Iran including cab drivers and street sweepers. But I think The Donald would love to talk about being tough on Iran up to election day then do another treaty similar to the one concluded by President Obama. The Donald would naturally talk about how the new treaty is the best in history. Like the NAFTA treaty. He said it was the worst treaty in history; then made a few minor changes and the new treaty is the greatest in history.
15
@Aubrey. I agree.
1
@Aubrey (continued)
The situation with China is similar. There are real problems with our China trade -- intellectual property, their theft of trade secrets, etc. But The Donald doesn't know enough about economics and trade to really deal with them. And it would be nice to have allies to really deal with our Chinese trade problems.
Expect a lot of back and forth with China to impress the trump base. At some point there will be an agreement which The Donald will label as the greatest in history; many commentators in the NYT and elsewhere will say that it was something that could have been agreed to months ago -- or that The Donald was snookered. But the trump base does not read the NYT.
The Donald's greatest success was as pretend businessman on The Apprentice. Will he make a success out of being the pretend president in the Apprentice Presidency?
1
You apparently do not understand Freedom which is the ability of a country to chart its own course, they can not steal intellectual property that they did not agree to protect. While the world has agreed on limiting nuclear weapons they have not agreed on ballistic missiles .What will be restricted next ? Tanks.
We have the ability to counter these problems without destroying the very freedom we demand for ourselves.
1
Mr. Friedman's optimism is refreshing... but it seems untethered from reality in a world where Mr. Trump is getting advice from John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, both of whom seem intent on engaging in a conflict with Iran.
And the idea that "we could sit back and let transformation emerge from within Iran" sounds a lot like the thinking Mr. Friedman had in Iraq and Afghanistan where we are still waiting patiently for such a thing to happen.
I hope things turn out well... but I think we might have to wait for 2021 before the thinking changes in our government.
6
Maybe if we, the UK and BP hadn’t overthrown the democratically elected government of Iran in 1973 for oil profits we might be living in a different world today.
10
@Rich Murphy The year was 1953, but your're probably right about the consequences (26 years later) of that coup.
10
@Rich Murphy: 1953, not 1973. 1953 is arguably one of the worst years in the history of this infantile nation.
Great article as usual. I am not sure if anyone has an answer to these complex issues. We essentially have little control. The US would not support Israel's nuclear program, so they went to France, and I suppose Iran is working with North Korea. China is the big dog that will someday eat first. Many of these issues have been forming for several years. Often, is very difficult to get smart late. Let's hope there is some serious negotiation taking place behind closed doors!
7
Accusing China of stealing technologies and unfair trade practices misses the point.
Surely this happened but it does not explain China’s rise and China’s threat of US dominance.
China built its success on hard work and a vision, it came from nowhere, from poverty, hunger and misery.
It has over the last 50 years transformed itself to a modern society that rests on excellent public education, ambitious infrastructure and heavy investment into research and development.
China beat us at our own game.
Instead of trying to compete, and investing heavily into future technologies we resort to our economic and political power to extort concessions from China.
This might work temporarily but will be a Pyrrhic victory. In the meantime we miss our last chance to actually compete and transform our own aging and even outdated industries.
12
Great background and great goals for both conflicts. As you say, both civilizations are very old giving them the intrinsic ability to play the long game. The leaders of both countries are very secure and face no significant opposition. They will not buckle and lose face. The pain being inflicted is economic and plays well to their bases. Both leaders can say that they have been right not to trust the US or westerners at all. The pain is being felt in the EU and the US and will increase if the gulf oil ceases to flow and tariffs continue. There will be another recession. Sometimes pain unifies an opponent. I think this is the case for both Iran and China. The pain policy has divided the US from its allies and also internally. With US elections coming in 2020 and lack of political consensus in the EU why would Iran or China make a deal now?
7
Do you really think Trump is thinking of the complicated web Mr. Friedman is describing here?
It seems to me he wants to end the Iran Nuclear deal because he hates Obama and Netanyahu asked him to.
And I'm guessing China refused to help bail Trump out of his myriad of personal financial catastrophes like Russia has, so he's seeking revenge.
Either Mr. Friedman is over estimating Trump's intellectual capability or I'm underestimating it.
34
Correct, Dr. Tom, 1945 and 1989 were seminal years of transformation in the world. Great regime changes. Major upheaval in the world's social, cultural, economic order.
In 1945 we witnessed the annihilation of Fascism in Germany and Japan, and the birth of the Cold War between Communist Russia and the democratic west. We couldn't imagine life as it is today in this 21st century.
In 1989, 44 years after 1945, Communism and the Berlin wall fell and Russia broke into pre-USSR pieces. Moscow picked up the pieces. In 1989, Emperor Hirohito died. A new world order was born. That year, Communist China massacred their own citizens at Tienanman Square.
Today, 2019, 20 years after Tienanman Square, we are witnessing an upheaval the likes of which many people alive today never imagined. We didn't imagine World War II in the 1930s or the fall of Communism in the 1970s. In addition to the imminent upheaval of the world order (China, the Middle East, America under Trump) we are feeling the catastrophic physical changes of life on our planet. Climate warming and the extinction on our planet due to the Anthropocene Age.
We are all feeling great pain -- an age of anxiety, fear and great stress -- as the events of 2019 continue to make their mark on all of humanity. We are human beings, mammals, and feel the inchoate changes coming now and in the near future.
12
The left handed compliments to Trump in this article signal his re-election since they affirm the voters, and the reasons that elected him in the first place. Unfortunately, Friedman is predicting the past with 20/20 clarity while Trump’s ‘brand’ of feigned insanity is what his base wants and will get more of. Welcome to the real future, folks, it’s gonna get worse before it gets better. Fasten your seatbelts.
Vote.
10
Ah, but we are stuck with a zero-sum administration in a world that increasingly requires non-zero thinking for survival. To top that, the motivations of this administration are purely and cynically political, not in the least concerned with the future or the commonweal. We are in deep trouble if Trump is reelected. Not just here in the US, but the entire world.
32
We should be held accountable. We are the cause of the Middle East wars and having overthrown democracy in Iran 1950s in favor of the Shah we have lots to answer for. A patriotic American with knowledge of history and a sense of justice would support Iran in this standoff. Irony states that they, Iran, will liberate us from the fascist government in Washington DC that is now in power.
If you’d like to focus on a mortal foe of the US try Saudi. Think, if possible 9/11 Al Qaeda ISIS and worldwide Sunni terrorism.
2
We signed an agreement with Iran to delay their nuclear program. Rather than join the community of nations, their response was to expand mischief throughout the Middle East. At what point should they be held accountable?
1
@KJ McNichols . Regarding the Nuclear agreement, Iran has kept their end of the bargain. Trump is looking for an enemy because the Mueller Report's description of his crimes is sinking in for most Americans.
His internal polls show him getting beaten by just about every Democratic candidate.
The best way for a would-be tyrant to win over the people is to create a common enemy.
1
@KJ McNichols They've done so with the complicity of Putin, Trump's best buddy. China also does a good business with Iran, so how do you hold everybody "accountable" when we have lost crediblilty with the entire world, shunned allies, and stumble around with no clear goals except to bring coal back?
1
@KJ McNichols Are you referring to the agreement brokered by President Obama?? Because Trump tore up that agreement, breaking America's word and leaving Iran free to do whatever it wants. America, under the pathetic "leadership" of a miserable wreck of a human being like Donald Trump, is no longer a trustworthy nation - we have gone rogue, so how do you expect the world to respond?
2
Remember the "I alone can fix it."? My increasingly lonely voice reasserts the root of the problem. It's not fundamentally about playing to a base, getting re-elected, avoiding prison...... nope. It's about a dangerous self-reflection. Let's hope our modern-day Narcissus finds a pool of water to contain his interest and flowers into something else.
4
Whenever a newspaper makes a map of the Middle East, it might be an idea to add those bits of China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) that have been constructed and are planned. The BRI dips down to Tehran and word has it that the Chinese have already laid 100 miles of railway track to Mashhad.
With the BRI comes a wholly different trading infrastructure: Iran can soon trade eastwards, not just westwards, and will no longer crimped by the tariff pinch, whose pincers may soon become blunted.
Oh, and check out the BRI's north-south routes through Pakistan, from China to the Arabian Sea. While America bombs, China builds.
Soon enough, count on China's army showing up to protect its investments and assets, East India Company style. Then the sparks will fly.
19
@ben nicholson Really good point about Iran and China. Iran does seem pivotal to China's long term plans. There's also the growing links between Russia and China -joint military exercises, pipe links from Russia to China etc?
4
Very good news. Gives me hope. Our influence must be neutralized as we have morphed into an international menace.
2
The Three Amigos - Bolton, Pompeo, and Trump - operate on a time scale that is incompatible with modern state craft. Trump especially has the attention span of a toddler. They represent a chicken hawk approach to deeply rooted foreign policy challenges, which never works.
They may differ in degree, but Russia, North Korea, Iran, and China share a hostility of the U.S. They benefit from a weakened, isolated U.S., which is the situation we are now in. And it is a situation completely self-inflicted - we withdrew from the Trans Pacific Partnership, the Paris Climate Accords, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, threatened to pull out of NATO and the WTO.
Internationally, the United States is the weakest we have been since Pearl Harbor. And the Three Amigos have 18 more months.
39
@Gimme Shelter, I agree with most of what you say, but the TPP was rushed and secretive and why, we have discovered, is that multi-nationals would have legal immunity from concerns of constitutional, elected constituencies.
1
Why 30 years?
Why was 15 not enough?
Many pairings that are raised are known already,
- no strategy
- no game plan
- no alliances, why because they want a goal to go along with.
- Russia coming in, really?
The bottom line the goal is to inflict pain and to provide arms.
Mr Friedman writes “And we can arm the Sunni Arabs to keep Iran at bay.” Wow, that’s great. Just as we did Saddam back in the 80s, we can see how that worked.
Bottom line, only change can happen from within just as it did in the 70s, despite our thoughts.
11
This is a big, consequential moment with a conflicted president at the helm.He wants to change behavior and only knows how to do it by hurling insults, threatening and inflicting pain.He has shown no ability to negotiate or to attract a team of good negotiators.He cannot change behavior by decree.He has neither the inclination nor the wisdom to assemble allies and patiently work at the task strategically.He cannot focus and this endeavor requires the utmost in thoughtful and wise decisions-none of them communicated in a “tweet”.
11
@JANET MICHAEL Mr. Trump
wants to change behavior of Iran
and China but he is incapable
of changing his own behavior.
It is naive to think that Russia has any interest in seeing sanctions on Iran eased and Iranian oil flow freely. The price of oil is already weak, and lifting sanctions on will drive it down further. Russia’s economy depends on its sales of oil.
6
I wonder how long China's communist regime can remain in power when their economy is being driven not by it's state owned enterprises, but the Special Economic Zones where (more or less) Western Market Capitalism is nurtured and has proven abundantly successful. As China begins to create a Middle Class, how long will they tolerate the Two China's? The China of the SOE's and the China of the SEZ's?
1
China has had special economic zones for over 30 years. It ‘s biggest cities are full of the largest international companies & hundreds of thousands of ex-pats. The Chinese middle class works for these companies. China is an international entity just like the EU & US.
1
"Does Trump want regime change in Iran or just a change of behavior? Does he want to shrink the trade deficit with China or just get fair access for our companies? It’s not clear to me and doesn’t seem clear to him."
Tom Friedman, you're ascribing far too much long-range planning motivations to a man who lives in the moment and is influenced by the last person who speaks to him.
If this is a critical moment for the world, a time where actions taken (or not taken) against Iran and China will shape the world forever, I believe we may miss it.
You could force the presiden to read this column, but would he understand it? Can he-- with his policy to only trust his gut even when evidence contradicts it--rise to the occasion?
The problem doesn't only reside with Donald Trump. His foreign policy advisers are critical but just look at them--John Bolton, whose role in Iraq should disqualify him from ever working in government again; and Mike Pompeo, whose foreign policy is clouded by his religion, one that sees Trump and this moment as an act of God.
Would that America had the noted and devoted statesmen of yore to steady Trump's shaky hand on the ship of state.
But we don't, and that can break us.
54
@ChristineMcM
Trump's approach to foreign policy is no different than his approach to women: Assault, grope, and/or rape, then ask if they want to talk or negotiate.
@ChristineMcM But, Christine! You're forgetting.
Trump is "a very stable genius"!~~
Elsewhere in the NY Times today, an excellent article by Paul Mozur and Cecilia Kang explained how U.S. chip manufacturers continue to sell to Huawei, and why they will likely move production out of the United States if the Chump Administration continues its ban. The pain of tariffs and trade interference is inflicted mostly on U.S. workers and consumers. And let’s face it, a group whose interests are totally ignored by U.S. policy-makers is unlikely to have much influence in Beijing.
Concerning Iran, it’s impossible to say what value their oil will have in the months and years to come. I expect that it’s already being sold quietly, and that much of it passes through the hands of people who have paid for the privilege. The “sanctions” may be more apparent than real, somewhat like the U.S. ban on travel to Cuba, which most Americans evade by travelling through Canada and other countries. We’ll probably never know.
The levers of power, so large and firm in the minds of U.S. writers like Mr. Friedman, are no longer connected to the moving parts they once influenced, if indeed they’re connected to anything at all.
21
Trump doing foreign policy, is like a 7 year old boy playing with his friends, who decides his only goal, is wrecking everything that they build. Like DT said himself, "I am the same person I was when I was 6 years old." How is that working out for America is relation to its place in the world as partner, and, or leader? A disaster each, and every day!
26
Using a modified Friedman question, 'Can the president be disciplined, patient, and deft (skillful) — with undefined plans and goals — to translate the pain he’s imposed on these countries into specific, tangible and lasting gains for America?' I say no. trump is not a visionary as he so aptly shows with his "let's wait and see" replies.
There won't be favorable lasting gains for America, either. trump took care of that when he broke those trade and policy agreements. America's word means nothing and countries are now free to break agreements as they see fit.
Untrustworthy, two-faced, racist, and deceitful now dominate the world opinions about the US and nothing but an uphill battle from the the next President, will ever get that world respect back.
19
Friedman asks: “can the president be disciplined enough, patient enough and deft enough — cue the skepticism — to translate the pain he’s imposed on them [China and Iran] into specific, tangible and lasting gains for America?”
The question proposes that “gains for America” enter Trump’s thinking. Where is the evidence to suggest such a thing?
There is none!
17
Hopefully his question is rhetorical, otherwise he is incredibly naive to ask it.
2
" This is no ordinary moment. This is the big one, folks. What’s at stake with Trump and China is what kind of global economy we’re going to have going forward." Trump and China have already indicated they prefer the 'local economy' over the 'global economy'. MAGA is not a globalist slogan, while Xi's China is MAGA on steroids. This non-ordinary moment thus selects for Europe, India, SE Asia, Latin America, Africa, and anybody else who isn't politically immobilized by their own 'God-gifted-awesomeness'.
2
Indeed Mr.Trump should attempt a new nuclear deal along the lines suggested by Mr.Friedman here to replace the bad deal brokered by the Obama administration.
Too bad this was not suggested to Mr. Obama or that he was not willing to take the steps for a better deal.
2
@Joshua Schwartz:
some countries already HAVE nuclear weapons.
no problem?
some countries will soon have nuclear weapons.
no problem?
other countries should never have them.
no problem?
2
@Joshua Schwartz And after that will it be the turn of Israel with Iranians giving advice on how to do it?
@s.chubin in the NYT, why not. But does my US passport actually also make me an American, so that would be OK with you?
2
"But a president who acts a lot crazy — who creates pain without clear goals, who always insists on being seen to win and the other guy being seen to lose, with no compromise escape route — is not good."
All analysis aside...
If you cause pain, but neither have "real allies' nor a clear cut strategy--an achievable goal, along with a backup plan-- such attitude topples nations as well.
Mr Trump is not even a nuke missile, he is hydrogen bomb and no fixed target. Any which way, he goes, it's a tragedy waiting to happen.
Is a random machine gun burst deadlier or a sniper-shooter? High likelihood sniper gets the adversary, logically.
And Mr Friedman, who forgot to detail USA's interfering foreign policy which hasn't done any good to us or the world at large.
China is so ahead economically and investment wise in Asia minor, Eastern Europe, Africa and with this connection through Pakistan to Arabian Sea... USA looks like a blundering fool in comparison.
11
Brilliant, well stated.
1
Trump firmly believes that the pain he imposes on others will hurt them more than it hurts him.
5
Not your best work, Mr Friedman. You spend a lot of time chasing that "if only the world were still flat" chimera. Probably a good time to face some realities: the Exxons of the world aren't going to get a piece of Iran's oil, in the same way Iraq just balked. Iran is an honourable, advanced society that will respond positively to not getting sand kicked in their drinking water but not otherwise.
Donald Trump has no plan for any of this. It is depressing but plausible these days that decisions on trade and sanct ions are made after corporate or national lobbyist visits to the off-white house - only after consultation with the room rental numbers down the street.
Lastly (frustrated here...) is it just me or has Israel been awfully silent these last few calamitous weeks?
10
SILENT, yes and why. Perhaps they realize what a mistake it is to ally with Saudi. It will be their undoing. They’d better hope there is no war. Logic dictates Iran and Israel should be allies not enemies.
5
@mike. Israel is its most dangerous when silent. Add them to your list of people pulling The Dons strings. He’s got the Christian coalition working for him here while Israel is promising him their military in the Middle East.
“Iran, by contrast, is led by a narrow-minded, aging cleric who’s been focused on acquiring the most important technology of the 20th century, nuclear weaponry, to help it dominate its region, push the U.S. out and win a struggle with the Sunni Arabs over who is the rightful heir to the Prophet Muhammad from the seventh century — Shiites or Sunnis. “
It is a blatantly false statement that Iran is focused on getting nuclear weapons technology. In fact they have stated they do not want it. There have been inspections showing that Iran does not have nuclear weapons technology, and abiding by the Nuclear Deal until Trump broke it. It is Israel that has Nuclear weapons and no inspections under Netanyahu who seems crazy enough to use them. Trump has also given nuclear technology to the Saudis that are spreading radical Wahhabi ideology around the world.
The UAE, US and Israel are best friends with “bonesaw” bin Salmon who just ordered the cutting up live of a journalist. They also like that the Sunni Saudis are the largest financiers of Al Qaeda, ISIS and other terrorist groups against their Shia enemy Iran. The Iran who has fought back against the Saudi funded terrorists in Iraq and Syria. 15 of the 19 9/11 hijackers were Saudi ( NONE Iranian). In a just world we should be at arms length with Israel, be sanctioning the Saudis and friends with Iran.
34
@Steve:
thank you so much for that perspective.
i know it is futile to ask where iran would be today
if the US/CIA,
- in 1953, hadn't ousted the democratic prime minister who wanted to nationalize iran's oil industry,
- hadn't installed and backed a king who turned
dictator and brought iranians much suffering,
- from 1980-'88, hadn't backed iraq in its war vs iran,
thus strengthening the mullah regime,
- hadn't imposed sanctions which make iranians
suffer greatly, yet again ...
8
Israel isn’t best friends with Salomon, Netanyahu is and he will be reflecting on that after he loses the upcoming election. If he wins Israel will disappear as it did under the Romans back in Second Temple days. History repeats.
2
Unironically celebrating imposing "real pain" on anyone, much less an entire people, is beyond me. Are we to trust such sensible, sane people?
7
Friedman writes, "Keeping Iran and the Arab states away from nuclear weapons for another couple decades would be a good achievement. It could be a simple transaction — easy to verify and one that our allies could sign on to, as well as China and Russia. Iran, given the economic pain it is under, would have a very hard time saying no." A "good achievement"? How about a "great achievement," although this would not be Trump's achievement, but rather that of John Bolton, who graduated Yale summa cum laude. Believe me, John knows exactly what he is seeking.
Friedman continues, "Then we could sit back and let transformation emerge from within Iran, the only place it can emerge from, through its own people, who deserve better and eventually will get rid of this suffocating, rotten regime. Yes, it may take years, but we outsiders can’t rush Iranian history. Trying to force regime change on Iran right now could unleash disorder and refugees of massive proportions there." Friedman fails to mention that in 2009 Iranians took to the streets (the "Green Revolution") to protest the political oppression of the mullahs. The protesters called for the support of President Obama, but he ignored them. The rare opportunity for "change" presented itself at the time, but it was squandered by Obama in favor of an unsigned nuclear deal with a savage theocratic regime, showering Iran with cash used to finance Hezbollah and the Houthis, and permitting Iran's development of ballistic missiles.
@JG:
US-implemented regime change in iran in 1953
produced the results we see now:
- decades of support for the CIA-installed dictator
enraged iranians who took US hostages in 1979.
- 8 years of support for iraq in its war against iran
strengthened the iranian mullah regime.
- sanctions bring much suffering to the people, again.
while saudi arabia is free to spread the most CON-
servative form of islam & receives US nuclear tech?
double, triple, quadruple standards
plus john bolton plus mike pompeo?
some equation.
1
Sometime in the next 60 years China will overtake the USA as the #1 superpower. China will have AI, electric vehicles, military drones, cyber-warfare tools and other aspects of future technology that will be far ahead of the USA.
All Chinese learn about the humiliation of China from the Opium Wars. The Chinese people want revenge for the drug-induced weakening of their nation by the West.
Trump does not understand China as a nation nor it's leaders. He is trying to play poker and bluff and bully them while they are playing Go.
16
Another irony. China was weakened with drugs now WE are weakened with drugs, big time.
I feel you are way off on your numbers. 30 years vs 60 is more likely. Good post. Thanks.
2
@Brad, because China has never been a democracy, the people there will never know ownership, stake in one’s own country. China historically has swung in extremes despite Tao-ism and Confucianism which are rooted in practical wisdom. Long deprived of spirituality post Mao years the people are smitten by prosperity sudden wealth and unbridled consumerism. Soon obesity and bloated conditions will take over the population ridden with chronic ailments like diabetes heart disease. Unless the Chinese realize there is a thing called balance. When you ride this high this fast you got to come crashing down fast, one day :(
2
We are rapidly reaching the point where the other 96% of the world moves on without us. Trump will have succeeded only in making the US irrelevant.
16
For the moment, all roads still lead back to the US on virtually every issue.
@KJ McNichols
These days fewer and fewer roads lead back to the US but more and more issues emanate from there.
2
Every time the USA takes measures against Iran - never mind reneges on agreements it has signed - it supports the continuation of the Islamist regime. A child should be able to understand that, but apparently not the big brains running US foreign policy. Apparently American policy-makers imagine that they alone are patriotic and would rather defend their country againts outsiders even if that meant supporting compatriots they don't much like.
America and the UK have treated a proud country of great culture and accomplishment with no respect, and without at least being reliable. What kind of figure does an unreliable bully really cut on the international scene? That is what the US has become. A nation that can only inflict pain.
(Incidentally, Iranians also know that America has no qualms about Israel possessing nuclear weapons, even though nobody in the Middle East thinks of Israel as a peaceful neighbour, no matter what the discourse is outside the region.)
6
Trump’s only goal is to win, whatever that means to him at the moment. It means somebody has to lose, too. There is no situation where Trump all is someone else to just not win as he. Somebody must lose, and it’s preferable if they were not white and/or not a man.
4
No matter the issues at hand, Mr. Friedman, no matter the complexities involved with those issues, Trump may be relied on for one thing and one thing only: doing what's best for Donald Trump. What benefits him, personally, is the only criterion he uses to reach what may -- only in charity -- be referred to as his "decisions." All the rest is background noise to Trump and he disregards it. He is not smart enough to realize how ignorant and self-centered he is.
I weep to think of where we might be right now as a country and as a nation among other nations had Russia not interfered with the 2016 elections, had we dismantled the Electoral College many years ago (as we ought to have done), and had Mrs. Clinton been the one to take the oath of office as our President in January of 2017.
16
A stopped clock is right twice a day. It is otherwise wrong.
Although the sanctions on China are causing pain, it is pain that China can absorb over a period of time. And if China believes that things will change on January 21, 2021, they will wait it out. If it doesn't believe that, it will find ways to strike back, primarily economically. And in that case the pain now being inflicted on American farmers will spread to the rest of us in the form of higher prices and possible shortages of goods.
Iran is a different story. The Supreme Leader is running out of time. This puts it in a position where it must either reach some sort of deal or strike out.
To an extent this is a rerun of a prior crisis. The United States was faced with a country engaging in aggression in its region. In response, it imposed sanctions on oil, which in a short time would have crippled that nation, expecting that it would change its ways.
We got our answer on December 7, 1941 at Pearl Harbor.
5
@John Graybeard
You're right about Pearl Harbor and why it happened.
Very few Americans understand why Japan started a war with a most powerful country like ours.
We forced them into it with our "sanctions"
We continue our habit of punishing others (sanctions)
Then we are surprised when they hit back.
Most American don't understand why December 7 1941 happened.
Most think that the emperor woke up in a bad mood that day and said "Let's go do something to the Americans".
Trouble happens when you don't know or understand history.
1
Very shallow analysis Mr. Friedman. You assume that Iran will just fall in line and accept whatever the US offers because of economic pain - if it were this simple the issues with Iran would have been solved a long time ago.
Instead, what the Iranians will do is restart their nuclear program, and since neither they nor the US have appetite for war, they will likely be able to accomplish this. When it is complete or near completion, they will have recreated their leverage and will then enter negotiations. Furthermore, they will likely make sure they get stronger guarantees, like immediate credit and cash transfers, to ensure that they have money if the US decides to leave again, so a new deal may be worse than the original.
Also, despite the shale revolution, the US remains a net importer of oil, with some shipments from the Gulf. Even if the US imported zero oil from the area, the impact on oil prices from a conflict in the region could be substantial and impact the US economy negatively.
As for China, you have not really offered any analysis on what could be done to confront them. You can easily whack a small country like Iran, but what will you do to a behemoth like China? The US and China are like a married couple, you can't hurt one without impacting the other. Furthermore, the Chinese have already demonstrated they are able to indigenously innovate (like with 5G), so it is not clear that blocking them will be effective in stopping their technological development.
15
@Fakkir Good comment.I would simply add that China's supply of missiles and Trump's release of nuclear technology to the Kingdom further complicates the tasks.
2
No other president has taken China and Iran at once and so the worry is that a new alliances will emerge. The dominance of the USA as the sole nuclear superpower would be challenged by an alliance of China, Iran, N. Korea, Russia led by Putin. This will make the alleged Russian influence on US thinking and elections stronger. The opposition to Trump in the US is strengthened by those who are sympathetic to the pain he has imposed on countries of the alliance.
Trump has been more courageous than any previous president since world war II in responding to the defiance of the alliance. There is a limit to the pain that will be endured and there could be dire consequences if Trump goes any further than he already has. So far Trump's pain imposed on the alliance has not hurt the US economy and his support among those who voted him into the WH are solidly behind him but if things go out of hand and and there is an armed conflict with Iran or an attempt to bring a regime change in Iran or the economy tanks, Trump could see opposition in the US gain MoJo and his reelection uncertain even with dysfunctional and divided Dems.
Trump should be aware that all his accomplishments will be wiped by anger if he imposes more pain on Iran with civilian casualties. He was prudent in calling off the strikes with possible civilian losses in response to the unmanned drone being drowned. He can take advice from both doves and hawks but follow through henceforth only on the advice of the doves.
1
Although I was horrified by the possibility of a Trump presidency in 2016, and subsequent events have only reinforced my dismay, I am beginning to wonder if perhaps Trump might be the right man for the times.
If Obama was a thoughtful diplomat, — and I was always assured that he evaluated every thought and decision carefully, even if I didn’t always agree with him — now I wonder if Trump’s lunacy might be a plus.
China and Iran laughed behind Obama’s back. But I think they’re now quite unnerved that this potential nutcase, Trump, could actually inflict a lot of harm and pain on them.
They’re justifiably nervous, and acting accordingly. Somehow I don’t think the Chinese or Iranians are even slightly cowed by Mayor Pete or Bernie or Liz. But they might fall into line because Trump is capable of anything.
It’s just a theory, but it’s why I’m seriously considering a vote for Trump. In 2016, I would’ve slit my wrists before entertaining such a possibility.
7
@David G. The problem is that diamond cuts diamond. If Trump is up against tough, hard cases who can give as well as take this may not turn out well if all he relies on are bullying tactics. I remember a Welsh rugby coach who as a club manager of Neath used hard tough men to cower other clubs in the Welsh league. When he became manager of the Welsh side he found and employed the same people at international level to cower opponents but he rapidly found that he needed other things in his locker as New Zealand, England, France etc had the same level of hard tough men but with more in their locker besides that.
I don't think cower is something that is going to happen with the leaders of tough proving grounds like China, North Korea, Russia or even Iran. Though they may bend. The thing is to make the option of complying (although painful to pride etc) less painful than not complying in my view. I think it would still be a calculated decision rather than cowering though. There would still have to be some give and take on both sides in my view. Has Trump got more in his locker though, otherwise, as with the tough hard men of Afghanistan or Vietnam it may not turn out well.
6
@David G.
Has giving up one’s soul ever worked well for anyone? trump should not be president ever.
3
@David G. Good for you man. I have never heard any 'right man' will want to conduct tariffs on almost any country, despises most leaders of other countries. It is called unreasonable behavior dude, and it is only based on his angry vote base. Also, by the way, the fact that you think that Iranians and Chinese are nervous and acting accordingly so that it might be a good thing is just hilarious and somehow pathetic. One may be nervous when the opponent is really competitive, or they might just ran into a crazy barking dog in the street and they are nervous and they want to keep away from it, and I think it would be the thoughts of many leaders of other countries right now.
3
A president who acts to right wrongs--imagine that. Iran was destabilizing the middle east very quickly and still aims to do so. The removal of Iranian national income is the right move. We are not in a military war with Iran. And Iran can't afford full blown terrorism via proxy anymore. Nuclear disarmament treaty? Just use the same ones that worked with Libya and South Africa. Straightforward, clear, and a history of success. Iran can take it or leave it.
China has been removing our wealth for decades. The tariffs are working. They were instated over a year ago ( starting) and we have had zero impact on consumers, the stock market is humming along, and suppliers/wholesalers are altering their supply chains. Manufacturing in the US is actually growing rapidly, and we remain the second largest world manufacturer, which is fine by me given our very strong service sector.
While we have a complete fail on domestic issues at all levels of the federal government, we are on the right track with China and Iran. The sky is not falling.
5
@Mark:
was "iran destabilizing the middle east very quickly"?
how about israel [nuclear power]?
how about saudi arabia [soon to be nuclear power]?
why this continued obsession with iran
[while half a million people are starving in yemen]?
2
@Mark How was the Libya deal a success? Qaddafi denuked, so a few years later a US Secretary of State was able to say 'We came, we saw, he died!'
Why would any other government anywhere ever agree to denuclearise at US behest?
@Richard Simnett
Very good point. The bombing of Libya, decided on by President Obama, was a mistake. There is a war there now, with Egypt supporting one side and Turkey and others supporting the other. Another mess. However, my point is that the platforms used to de-nuclearize Libya and South Africa actually achieved their goal, whereas the JCPOA was highly flawed and did not.
Trump is not going to do anything to tank the economy with the election coming up next year. If it looks like the tariffs are taking us in that direction, he will lift them in a heartbeat. Trump has no spine.
At first, I thought that if Trump's poll numbers sag next year, he would start a war with Iran in an attempt to boost his popularity. But then I considered that "fire and fury" morphed into Trump and Kim Jong-un exchanging "love letters." Of course, North Korea already has nukes and an ally in China, while Iran has no major allies and is not a nuclear power. So Bolton and Pompeo are itching for war there. Still, Trump may very well take to heart the advice given in this column and make a deal with Iran. I just don't think Trump has the stomach for a war. Again, he has no spine.
Trump looks out only for himself. His only goals are short-term ones: to remain in power to avoid prosecution and to continue to make money at the expense of the rest of us. Given the current Democratic presidential field, Trump may be thinking that he can just sit back and let them all eat each other. Then he'll be in for another four years with no need for anything dramatic. Maybe he's right? It will be up to Democrats to prove him wrong.
5
Brilliant piece of writing. It could hardly make the situation clearer. It is most unfortunate that at such a pivotal moment we have a president who I doubt will rise to the occasion.
10
Really interesting and thought provoking article that seems to me to analyse really well the over extended bind that Trump seems to be in to me although what are the options?
However, it also seems to me to forget about the other big foreign policy problem of South America - migration due to deprivation etc. and the bullying tactics being employed etc. I would point out that by some estimates Venezuela has the world's biggest proven oil reserves (300,878 million barrels to Saudi Arabia's 266,455) although they are hard to extract. The South American lithium triangle (the new white petroleum) containing over half of the world's lithium, in my opinion already being exploited by China with its eye on the high-value-added high margin echnologies mentioned and so on.
No ordinary moment indeed as stated.
1
Iran already has advanced air defense, what happens if china gives Iran advanced anti ship missiles or blueprints of them from under the table?
@Tohid Noraein -- They've already got those too.
2
@Mark Thomason
I meant the ramjet generation of missiles, or asistentes in turbofan engines and avionics for new fighters.
Or they can go crazy and help with long rang cruse missiles and ballistic missiles.
Aren't you ashamed to remain silent regarding Tehran's long-time and recently repeated assertion that it would never develop nuclear weapons? The United States cannot say the same.
2
@tapepper
any feelings of shame and morals in relation to politics are unamerican. This is the NEOCONs born again old project of the New American 21st Century, PNAC, they signed on to before they invaded Iraq.
1
Trump is unilaterally breaking the 2015 denuclearization deal with Iran’s dictator while trying to entice North Korea’s dictator, Kim Jong-un, into a denuclearization deal that he’s supposed to trust the U.S. president will honor. Trump is sanctioning China on trade while trying to enlist its help to denuclearize North Korea. Trump is imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on America’s European allies while needing their help to confront China on trade and Iran on nukes.
That is the point. The rest of the world is just waiting the man to fall.. and hoping for an understandable and reliable US President.
8
Yes Mr. Friedman. "The stakes simply could not be bigger" but President Trump, in his rough behavior that insult some gentle souls-bleeding heart people, is trying to do the right thing for the free world, the USA should have done it long ago. You are right in every thing you write Mr. Friedman, it is difficult but can be done and only a person like the current President can do it. The President is right, the USA is supporting and defending the free world for much to long a time, since the first World War. It so happens that at this moment in time, the USA is, by far, the strongest nation on earth but time is running out. In few years China will pass the USA in both economic and military. Trump has to exploit this window of opportunity to make the wrong situation right. Otherwise democracy and free economies will disappear, it can still be done. China and Iran are no different to the free world they only work in different strategies and at this moment their strategies depend on their economies that depend on US consumption. Europe is the real problem because they behave like an ostrich and hope that the USA will continue to protect them like it does for over 100 years. I hope, like you Mr. Friedman, that we will see the conclusion of 1945 and 1989 all over again but it all depand on your current President and the support he gets from freedom loving people in America.
4
@Shlomo Greenberg
The ME already looks like 1945 Europe when it is all over and done there may be no Israel left at all or it will look like Gaza and the ME too.
While China and Iran may not be Trump's "type", Russia apparently is can cause him more trouble.
Russia is very much woven into this situation and this troika has more wit, patience and long game than does the Trump Little League team "The Sorcerer's Apprentices".
3
Dear T Friedman,
I think u are underestimating the resolve of China to push back hard. From an Asian historical perspective China should not and must not allow the US to humiliate it;It suffered a century of humiliation by the West in the 19th/20th century.There will not be a Plaza Accord with China ,which brought Japan to its knees and from which it has not fully recovered.
In fact,the question is whether China and others are prepared to see another 4 years of Trump in the White House.A trade deal with China will increase Trump's chances of being re-elected.The crucial issue is which society can withstand more pain.President Xi's invocation of the Long March is an indication that he and the country will fight a good fight to the end.
Regards
Robert Wee
12
@robert wee When China joined the WTO, it agreed to follow a set of rules. It wasn't the result of gun boat diplomacy. China is free to leave the WTO at any time if it wants. Still, for whatever reason, many in China seem to think that China should never have to follow any rules and any suggestion otherwise would mean surrendering to "the Imperialists."
3
people in USA seems to forget the recent WTO ruling that USA had breached WTO international trade practices by illegally subsidizing Boeing. USA has by its action of unilaterally imposing tariffs also breached WTO trade rules.
2
Thank God we have a President who is willing to deal with these immense challenges head on rather than kicking the can down the road. Trump has America’s best interests at heart and the least we can do is support him in this difficult time. He did not create the mess, but he is trying to clean it up. Politics should end at the waters edge.
3
@Brad
Trump is continuing the mess and making it worse.
Neither China, Iran nor Russia has attacked and invaded the USA.
China was great for the US corporations as long as the country contributed all the cheap labor, now the nation of almost 1.1billion people has become a competitor, Russia and Iran compete on the energy markets. That is not fair, so the US is ready to annihilate them if they don't behave as told. The same goes for Europe.
The USA is the real troublemaker with enough military power combined with a criminally insane government ready to destroy the planet.
@Brad. Obama faced a situation where Iran was the path of enriching uranium. He worked along with other friendly nations to cap the problem. He did not kick the can down the road.
Then Trump came along and unilaterally abrogated the agreement with Iran and imposed fresh sanctions on them. What was the trigger point for these hostile actions?
Trump did not inherit a mess- he created it. Now he is trying to take credit for 'cleaning up' the mess in his amateurish, reality TV fashion.
The leader of the free world should not be leading the way in creating chaos around the world!
"The stakes simply could not be bigger, which is why I believe 2019 will be a pivotal year — like 1945 and 1989. I just hope it ends as well."
What is the chance that Trump even understands what that sentence means? We may soon find out the price of having a "steady genius" sitting in the Oval Office and making life-and-death decisions that will affect the entire globe. November 2020 cannot arrive soon enough.
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@Alfred Yul
I wonder if Mr. Friedman knows what the sentence really means.
One important thing to remember about Iran; the people complain about and criticise the leadership all the time. They feel held back, as the article states. But whatever they think about whichever mad mullah is in charge, Iranians are extremely proud of their revolution and will defend it to the end. The Shah’s regime was corrupt and brutal and was supported by the US and others. Without having some respect for Iranians’ bid for independence and self determination, the West won’t get far in changing the current political system there.
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@Michael
Well, many of us despise our leadership that does not mean we want the Chinese to come to bless us with a regime change to their liking.
2
If nothing else, Trump is an optimist in developing his plans: Trump Airlines, Trump University, Trump casinos, Trump Vodka, Trump beverages, Trump: The Game, Trump magazine, Trump Mortgage Company, Trump Steaks, Trump’s travel site, Trumpet and Trump Tower Tampa. But Trump has a problem. Everyone in the world now knows his shady game, and they’re not falling for it. Worse, he doesn't learn from history or have wise advisors. If he launches an attack on Iran, more tariffs on China, watch the world economic order implode. And grab your hat on the way out...
43
As a hardcore liberal, I have never been scared of Iran. They are a self-serving regime terrified of their own reflection. My question is this: where does Israel come in?
8
When it comes to China we think the major issue is how President Xi is staying on as the president for life.
2
Trump definitely has a defined goal... reelection.
8
Tom this sentence "If Trump is smart, he’ll quickly use his leverage to strike a limited deal with Iran." Trump is not smart. He doesn't know what he is doing and doesn't listen to experts.
As long as he remains President, our country is in peril.
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@Beverley
May I ask why they would strike a deal with a man who has already torn up an agreement that was being complied with. A man who cannot be trusted, who lies continuously, is mentally and morally compromised, and who would, again, tear up and any such agreement if his bases turned against it. Iran still remembers what America did in 1953 and their support of Iraq during the Iraq/Iran war, why is heavens name would they do so?
45
"Trump should invite Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — our partners in the 2015 Obama-Iran nuclear deal that Trump tore up — to join us in improving that deal with a simple offer. . ." I can't imagine Trump doing something Obama did. Nor can I imagine him working with our allies, or our allies wanting to work with him, or Iran trusting that we'll keep our end of an agreement.
27
Putin must be very happy with all the chaos Trump is creating in the world. The only one it seems to actually help is Putin who seems to certainly be getting his money's worth for putting Trump in office.
14
Your interests are not Trump's interests. You consider national purpose. He considers only his own interests. What's the difference to him if Iran acquires nuclear weapons? It will make Saudi Arabia more dependent on him. What's the difference to him if the next generation of internet technology is split between the US and China? It won't impact his family business. What he doesn't want are headlines that he can't lie his way out of.
So your article is about what you would do if you had Trump's position. It's no influence on him.
22
First off, we need to have some context of the human being we are dealing with in Thomas Friedman. He was one of the most fervent cheerleaders for the second Iraq war, which by any objective measure was one of the worst foreign policy debacles in American history. That he still is writing a foreign policy column in a major American newspaper, is by any objective measure, evidence we don't have a meritocracy.
I can't speak to Iran because I've never lived there and I don't speak the language. I DO live in China and I can communicate in that language.
I have some very shocking news about Mr. Friedman's "transformational" ambitions for China. It won't happen. Ever - not, at least, by America. America is a very powerful country and it does have influence on China - but China is far, far, far too big and varied to be "transformed" by America. People, really, are too busy for that. The trade war hasn't really effected prices. As for the economy, well Alibaba and Baidu went down then have gone back up.
While China may want to lead the world in all the advanced technologies, they don't have any magical power to out-engineer American companies like Apple and Google. This will be an open competition. Most of my students KNOW that Apple phones are more reliable then Huawei - but Huawei are way cheaper. But you can only carry one phone. The bottom line is this: China is over a billion people, trying to make a living. They don't need your transformation.
125
It is clear that Trump will never do what is suggested here - he wouldn't be Trump. Mr Friedman is actually offering his advice to the next occupant of the White House. The problem is that this historic moment is to be decided by a chaotic administration led by a mentally and emotionally disturbed person under tremendous pressure. Reagan's playing roulette with the Soviet Union could also have turned really bad. Remember "The Day After". The historic moment becomes a daily suspense when erratic moves and declarations characterize the policies of the most powerful and admired nation on Earth - so far.
10
As far as Donald Trump is concerned, who needs goals when you can inflict punishment, and do so unilaterally under executive order?
And that's the vast extent of our so-called foreign policy these days.
Which is also why almost every one of his directives has the U.S. heading for a war -- if not with China or Iran, then with a host of other potential places.
There are so many to choose from on the planet that it's hard to keep score.
In the meantime, Trump has managed to alienate just about every ally this country had while thinking they'll come to our aid in upholding the punitive sanctions he's tossed about so freely,while forgetting that diplomacy has the ability to achieve the changes he's trying to bring about by use of military force.
And as the U.S. and global economies slowly grind down to a halt as a result of his actions, someone should remind this president that the carrot and stick approach only works when you have a carrot.
18
Thomas, you've got the dates wrong. 2019 will be a pivotal year like 1914 and 1939. Nothing good will come from Trump's Presidency, only further destruction and pain. Before he's done the global economy will go into recession, and there will be a new war to end all wars in the middle east. Oh, and did I forget to mention what will happen to American Democracy? Stay tuned.
37
It's time that the press start to seriously challenge the effectiveness and morality of broad economic sanctions, which ultimately result in tremendous suffering for common people. At the same time, scholarly literature on this type of broad economic sanctions in place against Iran show quite clearly that they are not effective in bringing about the desired changes in regime behavior. Innocent people are starving and suffering. How can Mr. Friedman celebrate this pain?
17
@Seth Rogoff
Friedman can celebrate this because he is as complicit in the failed policies of the US as anyone. He has been wrong about most of the important issues in recent decades. Why anyone listens to him or takes him seriously at this point is a mystery.
9
I'm sorry but too many things in this piece are just very unrealistic:
"Trump should invite Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — our partners in the 2015 Obama-Iran nuclear deal that Trump tore up — to join us."
Trump is not inviting anyone to join anything. That's Obama style, anathema to him. Besides that, China has obvious conflicts with U.S. policy as evidenced by it's pledge to continue to buy Iranian oil, which essentially means it's giving Iran an exchangeable currency and supporting them thru it's banking system.
"If Trump is smart, he’ll quickly use his leverage to strike a limited deal with Iran.
The Iranians are not dealing with tRump. Why should they when China is helping them as described above?
"The U.S. will lift oil sanctions if Tehran agrees to... a ban on testing Iranian missiles that can reach beyond the Middle East."
Israel is not letting Iran out of the sanctions regime if a deal allows Iran to build and test missiles which can reach them.
Israel will fight tooth and nail to prevent this and considering how close the tRump/Netanyahu regimes are, they're likely to get what they want.
13
Mr. Friedman ideas and solutions are so much out of touch with reality that one wonders which planet he is living on. He argues every country in conflict with us is bad actor and U.S. is an innocent bystander who should find solution. In the meantime, We are losing trust and respect among our friends and allies.
27
There are lots of low wage countries to replace China, Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and let’s not forget Africa lots of opportunities there.
3
@Craig
Capitalism and its ugly stepsister globalization are always looking for fresh exploitation fodder.
1
You might check the pain is on the US as well. No one seems to be checking claims for Unemployment have been increasing for months, the job creation is down for the past several months Wall Street no real barometer of the economy has been up and down for months and trades lower than it did at the beginning of the year. The GDP has fallen all of 21019 and is on the skid, gee, interesting many economists see the US in a recession by the end of this year or in the New Year. The myth that he is creating all this pain on China and Iran is a myth. He is doing it to the US gee massive deficit and time to up once the debt ceiling which with his tax cuts has no end in sight. Oh, yes, I bet Mitch and the Merry Men of the Republican Party will push to reduce Social Security and all the social programs, boy the Trump followers are going to get in the neck shortly. Guess what I don't feel bad about that. The UK is about to fall off the cliff with Trumps friend Boris and Farage. Intel indicates that North Korea continues to expand and build more facilities and missile - oh, but Kim writes beautiful letters. No in reality the wheels are coming off the American wagon. He tears up a deal with Iran for no good reason and now the solution that I have backed myself into a corner lets start a war that blows up the whole Middle East. This while Jared is announcing the deal of the century like the other New York con man. Oh, yes he is doing a great job, ask him and tells you so, Jim Trautman
18
"Trump should invite Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — our partners in the 2015 Obama-Iran nuclear deal that Trump tore up — to join us in improving that deal with a simple offer".
trump debased the credibility of the United States by turning his back on an agreement forged by our previous president and our international partners. You're really asking those partners to join us in wrecking their credibility? If you read the international press, you'll find that sympathy now rests with the Iranians who had been abiding by the agreement. trump the 'deal maker' has painskakingly dealt himself a losing hand. Why should China help him out of this morasse while he uses tarrifs to damage their economy. European nations were satisified with the agreement and the resumption of trading relationships.
Boggled by trumps inept forays at diplomacy, the rest of the world is left pondering his favorite retort, "we'll see what happens". We'll see if he gets bored of the role-playing and decides to 'obliterate Iran' as he's threatened?
If the Founding Fathers had envisioned the possibility of such an incompetent individual governing our military forces, they would have set the bar lower for his removal from office.
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@Jim O'leary
Too bad, we don't have a Gore Vidal to read, he had brains and style. Mr. Friedman doesn't get it.
“a plan on how to sync up all of President Trump’s competing foreign policy objectives”. Trump has objectives? As far as the dispassionate observer can tell, those objectives are to have foreign emissaries pay exorbitant sums to stay at his DC hotel — in clear, impeachable violation of the Emoluments Clause — while lobbying his government. Oh, and the occasional red carpet reception (preferably with a parade) from foreign heads of state is nice, too.
Everything else is just a tantrum on Twitter.
15
Hmmm..."What’s at stake with Iran is what kind of global nuclear nonproliferation regime we’re going to have going forward."
Last I checked, 15 of the 19 hijackers who attacked the U.S. on 9/11 were Saudi, but Trump is going around Congress to provide nuclear technology to the murderous Saudi regime (cough...Khashoggi,...cough). No worries.
But Iran, who was complying with all terms of the agreement that the Obama administration had negotiated with Iran and our allies, is the proliferation problem?
Mr. Friedman's argument doesn't even pass the logic test, let alone the giggle test.
74
Mr. Friedman thank you for at least trying to lay out a road map for the president. I read it and fantasized that Trump was also reading it, and that he became, poof!, a completely sane and level headed leader.
It was good while it lasted.
4
I have full confidence in our President. His unorthodox tactics will work and make AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. And I mean it
Sorry but seen from here the inverse is true. We cannot trust America and the admiration that we had for you is waning fast.
2
Of course you do. So do millions of Americans who somehow bought the con that the world was taking advantage of poor little America; that black people were more advantaged than whites; that college education brainwashed our children against reasonable ideas; that women could not be trusted with reproduction; that the government was a cabal of hidden and nefarious elites working to poison, disarm and kill its citizens...Pure fantasy like the reality tv president. All baseless lies and nonsense.
1
RE: "... the two most important industries of the 21st century: artificial intelligence and electric cars."
More likely: artificial intelligence and biotech (especially synthetic biology).
3
As we ignored China during the Japan-v-USA trade negotiations of the 1980s (where Trump lives), we ignore Africa today.
Everyone who talked about China's future in 1980 is echoing in African policy.
1
You haven't justified why the effort to cause maximum pain is a good strategy, in contrast to other approaches.
8
The key asymmetry in all of this strategery is that trump has (hopefully) just another year and a half to get all of this change done. China and Iran have far greater continuity. Dealing with the US is like dealing with the weather in many places--if you don't like it then wait ten minutes.
11
We signed a 15 year deal, Friedman says : tell them to change it to 30 years toss in a missile limitation, when that's accepted we can.... wait, aren't they a proud ancient civilization?
If you have a 15 year mortgage I'll take care of it, just pay me the same rate for 30 years and don't worry, everything will be fine.
10
Sure, why not insist that Iran curtail all nuclear development (including the peaceful type) for a hundred years while we're at it? What difference would such a proposal make? No one has demanded that the U.S. give up its nuclear arsenal. No one has demanded that Israel give up (or even publicly acknowledge) its nuclear arsenal. If Trump wants to negotiate with Tehran, he should first do the honorable thing and rejoin the agreement whose terms the Iranian government had been adhering to. Maybe he can then come up with a better agreement. And maybe he can also get the mullahs to put up a Trump hotel in downtown Tehran and to ensure that pork is on the dinner menu.
comment submitted on 6/25 at 11:22 PM
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@stu freeman, I miss your thoughtfulness and wit. Where are all the commenters of the early 2000’s. I miss you all!
1
@rosemary: I'm around and so are some of the others. The cancellation of The Times' verified commenter policy has made each of us more difficult to find in the comments section. I've complained but to no avail (thusfar).
2
@stu freeman
To paraphase an old Pete Seeger song, "whose side are you on boy" The US and Israel give up our nuclear weapons? Uh Uh. We have them the other side, our enemies, have none.
1
This is surely Friedman's best column in decades, perhaps since he went off the rails in leading the media parade in support of Bush's invasion of Iraq. Unlike most of his pundit colleagues he was incapable of ever confessing error on Iraq, which forced him into issuing ever more convoluted rationalizations of his mistake. Now, with Trump wreaking havoc on the assumptions of 75 years of diplomatic history, the sheer novelty of the emerging framework has liberated Friedman from his self-constructed intellectual cocoon.
His assessment of the relative difficulty of the Iranian and Chinese crises appears accurate. The Iran crisis was entirely generated by Trump's own arrogant actions and can be alleviated by an abandonment of hostile US provocations. With feathers riled on both sides, an accommodation would take some time to work out. But in the ultimate accounting, only egos stand in the way.
The issues with China are structural and will not respond to superficial approaches. They cannot be resolved in the way western countries would like without China forgoing strategies that have been central to its rapid economic rise and to continued party control.
Perhaps the feasible answers will ultimately require the western system to incorporate more state economic participation mirroring the Chinese approach -- in effect meeting China half way. It would not be a surprise if current nascent concerns with the unchecked power of Google and Facebook push us closer to the Chinese model.
15
The casualties of Americas foreign policies are many - be it from economic, political or military interventions.
Inflicting economic pain in order to achieve a change of policies may or may not work. It has been tried in North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, China and Iran with relatively little success.
Political approval and support of malign regimes such as those in Central America resulted in an exodus of impoverished refugees against which we build walls.
It is also hard to fall in love with foreign soldiers even if their intentions are good - which we experienced in VietNam, Irak and Afghanistan.
The conditions needed for flourishing lives can be promoted through international cooperation, aid and development. Many organisations do great work empowering families and local communities. They represent valuable knowledge about local cultures, the local economies, and the impediments and to local development as well as possible solutions to improved lives.
140 of the countries in the UN are thoroughly corrupt and their political and economic elites do not necessarily seek what is best for their populations.
This is why we should support the organisations that seek to strengthen the resources at the grass roots. In the long run, a generation or two, we may see more economic efficiency, more social equity and more freedom. Short term confrontation directed at the top level may just strengthen their grip on power and turn their populations against us.
15
Trump is not a visionary; he doesn't live in reality. I am surprised Friedman can have any hope that this administration can accomplish anything. Trump can't keep his cabinet together. Foreign policy is exactly that to Trump...foreign.
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@SCoon
Trump does live in reality just not yours. Reality Salt Lake is unpleasant. The world is a cruel and harsh place or haven't you noticed while trying to earn a living.
@Alan Trump might live in "reality tv." If that's where you want to live, then there is no sense continuing the debate. Trump is your man; the consequences of his decisions are yours. Good luck.
I didn't think Mr. Friedman being a realist, widely traveled, not only in Middle East, but China and the world would resort to wishful thinking that Donald Trump will suddenly turn from a sexual predator and semi-illiterate bully to a statesman in a brink of eye. Let me pour some cold water on your dream scenario. Trump is exerting pain on everybody, not only Iranians and Chinese, but Americans also, and most important on planet Earth.
As for China, I do not discount a temporary truce at the G20 meeting, but surely from your visits you know China is plowing ahead and technologically probably ahead in many ways than U.S.. The reason Huawei is a target is because they are way ahead of U.S. in 5G, not because of spying. ( Huawei has stated and legally will be binding that there will be no backdoor in their equipment, and if U.S. is that ahead technically, surely they can find if any exist.) The competition between China and U.S. will be as you stated in AI, 5G, space, but most important in the system of government providing the needs of their people.
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If AI and Data and Electric Transport will be the future and Oil unimportant, why is the USA still meddling in the Middle East? Why does it favour the Saudis and their ilk over Iran and theirs? What is USA's real interest in the Middle East and Afghanistan? These wars are, as you seem to say, religious wars. Why is the USA so deeply invested in them?
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@Alfred Neuman . Good questions, E, and I think your assumptions are correct.
Two guesses at answers to your 4 questions:
Because some few families want the USA to do these things, and those few families control much power in the USA.
Because Trump family, and perhaps a significant part of the rest of those few families are in business with MBS.
Are there any cheap flights to Elbonia?
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@Alfred Neuman Because Trump, his backers, and cronies are really only interested in short term PROFIT. They care not for anything beyond their current bottom line.
2
I didn't think Mr. Friedman being a realist, widely traveled, not only in Middle East, but China and the world would resort to wishful thinking that Donald Trump will suddenly turn from a sexual predator and semi-illiterate bully to a statesman in a brink of eye. Let me pour some cold water on your dream scenario. Trump is exerting pain on everybody, not only Iranians and Chinese, but Americans also, and most important on planet Earth.
As for China, I do not discount a temporary truce at the G20 meeting, but surely from your visits you know China is plowing ahead and technologically probably ahead in many ways than U.S.. The reason Huawei is a target is because they are way ahead of U.S. in 5G, not because of spying. ( Huawei has stated and legally will be binding that there will be no backdoor in their equipment, and if U.S. is that ahead technically, surely they can find if any exist.) The competition between China and U.S. will be as you stated in AI, 5G, space, but most important in the system of government providing the needs of their people.
1
Thank Heaven that we elected an outsider owing nothing to no one. Pes. Trump talks to leaders, starts conflicts, stops attacks, talks some more ot other leaders, and sounds exactly right in the way Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Reagan would.
Hopefully we are at the beginning of a string of independent-minded conservative presidents determined to see the lives of Americans improving and secure.
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Perhaps you are right.
However, if you’re wrong, we are in most serious trouble
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@The Observer
Really or is this an attempt at irony. Hope it’s the latter ‘cuz it surely is nonsense.
1
@The Observer There will be no further conservative Presidents, either this one or the next will be the final of all time as this world system is slated for eternal destruction at the hands of Gods Kingdom. All nation/states and their adherents will be cut off forever and cast into the lake of fire and the Kingdom of God will be set forth on the face of the Earth to time indefinite with everyone who is a true lover of God and his righteousness inherits the Earth forever.
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My fear with President Trump is that there is no plan. That even if this worked and he got into a room with the Chinese or Iranians and they said, "OK, you win, present us with the list of things you want," he wouldn't have such a list. He doesn't take advice from subordinates, and it's quite likely he's never so much as asked them what we might ask for, beyond several sentences of generalities. Or even if they gave him a list he'd toss it, figuring that with his great brilliance he could simply go into the room and wing it, just as he loves to make a show of tossing aside his prepared-text speeches.
You think it couldn't be this awful? Try to think of a situation in the last two years with him when it was otherwise. This whole thing is very scary.
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Contradiction is Trump's middle name. On one hand he bans Huawei products because Trump claims Huawei represents a national security risk. But, if China buys more US soy, then Huawei can sell to the US. If Huawei is a security risk, what's the difference how much soy China buys?
By conflating trade issues with national security issues, reconciliation is impossible but none of that matters to Trump. All that matters is that he retains his Tough Guy persona so 30% of America supports him.
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While I dislike Trump as much as the next LibDem, I sort of relish is crazy foreign policy antics. I can appreciate what he is doing to two of our more intractable adversaries. While it may be obnoxious to put it this way, he is putting Iran and China in their place. You see we own this world. China needs Persian Gulf oil. China is about 5 to 6 thousand NM. from the Straight of Hormuz. China has no blue water navy. They need to transport oil all that distance, and protect it. So Hormuz is just the beginning of the gauntlet they must run. They need to traverse the Indian Ocean, India is not a friend, at which point they reach the Malacca Straight. Guess who is a competitor of China and none to fond, Malaysia. So that starts the second stage of the gauntlet. It needs to pass Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, all countries the Chinese have been doing a splendid job of pizzing of lately and have a pirate tradition, the Japanese will certainly be interested as well. And guess who keeps all that ocean and choke points safe and open for free? We do. No US Navy saying free transport to all nations and China is well, dead in the water. And as far as Iran is concerned we basically stole their identity, they can't cash a check or even open an account, they can't call Lifelock there is nothing they can do about it short of starting war with us and becoming Iraq. In the future these folks will do what their told and that is how the word works. It will save us lots of money.
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@Norman
I don't really care if your logic is fine.
I'm not happy with the idea that everyone in the world needs to do as America tells them. (The American ideal is freedom, right?) The only option you give them for objection is violence. Why do you want to run the world that way? To save coal mining jobs?
I am guessing that 3 Million more voters than voted for Trump don't want to.
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@Norman
Finally, a sensible mind.
1
@Norman Gibberish. If China needs a blue water navy they will build one.
It is worth noting what Thomas writes, i.e., that Persia and China are "two of the world's oldest civilizations." They have been at this thing called living several thousand years longer than our still growing and evolving United States. As a matter of fact and in view of this Trumpian paradigm, our nation is vacillating between the toddler's tantrum and the teen's rebellious streak. There is no denying that on the world stage both Iran and China need to be reined in. China is a global economic threat, and Iran simply can not be trusted when it relates to nuclear capabilities. But Trump is no match for his counterparts abroad. Lacking experience in diplomacy is the least of his - our - problems. Diplomacy is not in his vocabulary. The bottom line for this man is greed and power at any cost. Stir in those characteristics with the soullessness of a sociopath, with the narcissism that embarrasses even Narcissus, and a muddled, incoherent, and unstable mind, we thus have a man, an administration, that is incapable of dealing with the nations mentioned above. It simply can not be done by Trump Incorporated.
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I was fascinated by the paradigm you paint of ridding Iraq of its nuclear ambitions and thwarting China of its global economic ambitions. It is so well balanced and eloquently thought out that I wondered if anything like this could possibly come from the confines of the Trump Administration. From the President who loves Kim and receives beautiful letters, you detect a mind which has a Churchillian grasp of the dynamics of two malevolent powers. I think your article says more about the brilliant mind of its author rather that of our President.
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“I will give Trump credit for one thing: He has imposed real pain on Iran...”
Yes, we’ll, imposing pain and suffering seems to be the one thing Trump truly excels at. He’s especially good at it where young children are concern.
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Friedman makes good points. The only chance I see, however, to meet his stated goals is to try to keep a lid on things in 2019 and 2020 and hope we have the wisdom to elect a sane person and visionary as President in November 2020.
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Trump's plan -- live in the moment. He plays to a live television (and twitter) audience and improvises to suit the pleasures of the base who delight in his long-running mouthy game that makes the base feel good because they believe they have been neglected and whatever he does is an act of standing up for the forgotten white men. Otherwise there is no plan, no thoughts about how the game is played, how the game is won, what the rules are (other than to accumulate adulation for an insubstantial man who needs constant feeding of his fragile ego). With no plan and no thoughts about outcomes, with no constancy and no sense of purpose the country might be headed for a showdown that will cost lives - American and other - for no good reason. Our man-child president feasts on ego-fulfilling acts and now a time of reckoning might provide the evidence that even his base will concede is wrongheaded.
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“China knows that data is the “new oil,” so the country whose government and companies can capture the most data, analyze it and optimize it will be the superpower of this century.”
Bingo! That’s why China is using Huawei as a Trojan horse into the West’s economies IT infrastructure.
As for Donald Trump, he hasn’t the faintest clue what he’s doing. China will wait him out, and try to manipulate him with flattery at the G20 Summit.
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@Richard Gordon
I'm no fan of the communist party, but after such a long time there is still no real evidence pointing to Huawei spying for the Chinese government. Plus, a very large chunk of the Chinese IT infrastructure has been and is being built by Ericsson and Nokia, please don't tell me that they are more innocent than Huawei.
Simply blocking trade is just bad practice.
14
Trump likes to have flexibility in foreign policy. That is why he doesn’t define clear goals. If Trump says we won, then we won. He doesn’t want the opponent know what he wants. The country which has the data and powerful AI algorithms is not the superpower. The country which has the most knowledgeable society will be the superpower of the future. A monolithic communist country like China can never ever be a superpower. All we have to do is educate all our children and invest in basic research. Encourage all highly educated foreigners to stay here by giving green cards with their diplomas. The strength of this country is in its diversity with excellent higher educational institutes. As long as we provide healthy funding for research, we need not worry about China.
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@Kodali: “All we have to do is educate all our children. . .” Do you have any idea of the horrid state public (and much private) education is in, in the USA? Vastly underpaid teachers are reduced to spending their own money to purchase classroom supplies that school districts are too broke to provide. And all to many citizens howl at the idea of paying taxes, or transferring money from a bloated defence budget, to allow anyone to think that US educational standards will get better any time soon.
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@Kodali Nonsense. There are way more smart people in China than in the US. They will find their way upward in the sophistication of their industry no matter what we do.
2
“All” we have to do....
All we have to do is let Russia pick our next president....Oh, wait, they already did that.
All we have to do is let China corner us, economically,... oh, wait, we did that, too.
All we have to do is start a war with Iran—oh, wait, we’re doing that....
Ugh.
The U.S./Iran deal you propose is far too rational for either the leaders of Iran or the Trump administration to ever accept. But I applaud your attempt.
Since we're not talking about anything that will ever actually happen, I vote instead to put Trump, Pompeo and Bolton in an arena against Khamenei, Rouhani and whoever's in charge of the Revolutionary Guard. Let the six of them battle hand-to-hand with whatever weapons they choose and no referees.
After that, maybe the 99% of people in each country who just want to stay out of each others' hair can have peace.
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There is no chance we can force rapid regime change in Iran by expecting sanctions to inspire its people to rise up and overthrow their government. And even if we did, why should we expect the result to be better? We have plenty of recent examples to the contrary. Just look at the results of the Arab Spring.
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@Eric Holzman Pardon me for being pedantic, but the last time the Iranian people rose up against an oppressive leader and created rapid regime change the US was none too happy about it.
4
The Right-wing LOVED the Arab “spring”.
As has been said many times before, "hope is not a strategy." You are naïve in the extreme to believe hope can trump Trump. The only thing which can trump Trump is his removal from office ASAP.
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Years ago, the early 60's, I and my classmates were watching a newsreel about China and the Japanese invasion at the beginning of WWII. All of China's manufacturing and industrial complexes were near the coast. Easy access to a foreign invasion. So what did China do, they mobilized their country and literally moved the entire industrial complex up the Yangtze River a 1,000 miles inland and essentially inaccessible to the Japanese.
China has the manpower, resources, and time. We have Trump.
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@cherrylog754 most important, infact extremly important, they have the mentality, or deep cultural determination. this is critical to understanding china's moves. they mean business even if it takes some time.
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@cherrylog754
I am not sure what video you watched, but historically that’s simply not true. Japan bit off Manchuria, China’s industrial hub back in 1931 and retained it throughout the war. Then, when Japan invaded the rest of China in 1937, they were easily able to capture the vast majority of the country and China’s resistance to Japanese aggression was completely futile until Pearl Harbor in the end of 1941. China’s industrial production ground to a halt and they would have still remained a Japanese colony if it wasn’t for Tokyo’s imperial overreach.
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@cherrylog754
"The Art of War" versus "The Art of the Deal".
5
The U.S./Iran deal you propose is far too rational for either the leaders of Iran or the Trump administration to ever accept. But I applaud your attempt.
Since we're not taking about anything that will ever actually happen, I vote instead to put Trump, Pompeo and Bolton in an arena against Khamenei, Rouhani and whoever's in charge of the Revolutionary Guard. Let the six of them battle hand-to-hand with whatever weapons they choose and no referees.
After that, maybe the 99% of people in each country who just want to stay out of each others' hair can have peace.
5
Our foreign policy is all stick, with no carrot. Our prez has no ability to negotiate; it is all threaten and pull back.
211
Agree. I wonder if the rest of the world will decide to join together in countering trump’s constant stick.
15
@Brad It has been clear that US allies in EU will not embark into Trump vindications of any sort. Beside Saudi Arabia and the Emirates will provide rights to US to bombard Iran from their soil.
The blind "you scratch my back, I scratch yours" is a thing of the past since Trump is doing its tamper tantrum of the day. Mistrust is nowadays the name of the game when Trump is going haywire.
4
Trump has no China or Iran "foreign policy". What he does have is a legitimate desire to stay out of prison and an insane hatred of all non-white people, regardless of their nationality or ethnicity. His base shares his bigotry - this is the only reason they voted for him.
Trump's supporters are motivated by only one issue: race. They cannot stand the thought of Asians, Middle Easterners, or any non-whites as equals, be they our own citizens, or citizens of other countries. All this "tough talk" against China and Iran is what his voters want to hear. They love it when he "sticks it" to brown skinned people. That's what all this "administration's" "foreign policy" is about. It is really that simple.
It is unfathomable to me why such thoughtful and intelligent journalists like Mr. Friedman actually believe there is some type of considered "policy" behind Trump's actions. There are none.
He hates non-whites, and so does his base. And he knows he needs to keep feeding the beast. His doubling down on his praise for the KKK and neo-Nazis is an example of the same "interests" as those that drive his ignorant China and Iran "policies." And he knows this is his ticket to a second term, avoiding the certainty of a prison cell.
It is way past time to stop treating Trump like a thoughtful, decent, intelligent man. He is none of these things. And it is way past time for writers such as Mr. Friedman to stop enabling this country's first dictator by penning columns such as these.
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@DB Cooper Growing up in New York, I have despised Trump my entire life. But this comment is nonsense. After many years abroad, I recently returned to a country where EVERYTHING has to do with race. We can't get our collective minds off it. The guilt, pain, spite, hatred and vengeance summoned by our obsession with race is unrelenting. Americans are reminded of it every day. Even when the issue has nothing to do with race, it's about race. Even when it's really about culture; or socioeconomics; or education: or values; or geography; or something else entirely. Are you saying our current foreign policy is all about Trump's hatred of Asians? What about China's threat to Western values? What about the totalitarian model the Chinese promote around the world? Does that matter? It's easy to love freedom in theory but lack the courage to defend it when necessary. Because no matter what you say, our liberties cost huge expenditures of blood and sacrifice. Freedom is not a freebie - contrary to the bourgeois neoliberal narrative. Which means that Friedman's ideas about China are worth thinking about. But I mean REAL thinking - not race baiting. Because all a comment like this can do is incite more obsession with race. More focus on race. More surrender to race. More pandering to race. More weaponization of race. The fact that many readers gave you likes only speaks to how divided, shallow and troubled this country is. Americans just can't get over the color of people's skin.
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@DB Cooper
Thomas Friedman gives trump an extraordinary amount of credit for undermining an agreement with multiple international partners while having no clue or plan for how to improve on that agreement.
trump has advanced the doomsday clock. He has changed Iran from compliant to enraged following threats of obliteration. North Korea has learnt that any agreement with the USA is worthless. So what has trump won for us Mr Friedman?
26
@Fourteen14 I agree with you here, however, Trumps tactics are EXACTLY how he attacked the woman in the Bergdorf Goodman fitting room...he senses or finds a weakness, pushes his victim up against a wall with his shoulder, gets what his wants (asserting his strength and looking like a winner/strong man), and walks away believing there will be no penalties. I believe his patterns of behaviour are becoming obvious.....I wish journalists would analyse this...and stop giving him credit where it is NOT due....
11
This may be a pivotal year, but our pivot on US-China relations will not happen overnight. We have to take things issue by issue, step by step. We have decided -- wisely -- that unlimited openness, engagement, and one-sided relations are over. But that does not mean we should erect a virtual wall between the US and China. We have too much to gain in industries such as tourism, education, autos, consumer products, entertainment, etc. We have to selectively screen off sensitive areas based on careful and detailed analysis of specific security threats and unfair subsidies. Investment and tech transfer should be limited using transparent and reasonable criteria and procedures. But we should pair that with a consistent message (to counteract Party propaganda and keep to our values): Americans DO NOT have a beef with the Chinese people generally. Apart from specific people screened out with careful and professional criteria, we WELCOME Chinese people as we have for many years. We can pivot to a wiser economic strategy while not triggering xenophobic fears and outright racism. Our message should be: the People are NOT the Party; the People are not the problem. And we should liberalize visa policy for talented Chinese people and their families. Many do not like tightening controls at home. Why not welcome them here?
13