Turkey and Istanbul as its focal point in every sense of the word, will be leading the nation out of its decade old phase of ambiguity. Choices will be made with respect to westernization, democratization and secularism.
Rural to urban transition is not only of demographics but also one of culture comprised of social, economic as well as political elements. Istanbul historically played that leadership role for milenia. It is hoped that this election has helped bring forth some of these important elements essential for modernization back to the drawing board.
3
The recent mayoral election in Istanbul was an Erdogan-directed redo (with the aid of his rigged judiciary) of an earlier election that his party and its candidate clearly lost. That loss seriously embarrassed Erdogan. Now his party and its candidate have lost the redo. What now? Yet another redo? Keep on redoing the election until the people of Istanbul (a) give up trying; (b) realize what happens to free elections when you don’t vote for the dictator; or (c) watch the winning candidate and his party go to jail?
Only one thing can be good out of this debacle is the public projects which is already completed is Turkey's. Even debt defaulted, only you can give entirely the creditors but they can only put a utilization bill, asset stays in Turkey.
On the other hand, what is put in cronies pocket or spend for weapon etc, is gone. You have to pay what you cannot utilize.
That is the bottomline.
Erdogan knew first day when he won the election in 2002, this ship can only be handled with borrowed money, this is not first , this is 3rd installment, President Ozal, PM Ciller time in 1980 s and 1990 Turkey end up in the same ditch, Huge debt hole. Erdogan played the same song 3rd time.
Now Turkey need a more shrewd and street smart political leader, who can play the song 4th time.
2
The sad thing is articles like this tick off educated Turks and people interested in it more than Erdogan's pious as they misrepresent and/or take facts out of context.
If you had bothered to look at OECD figures for the last decade and half he has managed to pull millions out of poverty, growing not only the economy but its competitiveness. It fails your readers because stories are told about debt levels without comparing it to other major European economies like Italy and Spain which are no better even worse at times.
Either summarize it in full or dont dilute your topic because in that haze of half-truths the real story about his fundamental lackings in justice, freedoms, cronyism and his authoritarianism get lost...
The first mayoral elections was about electing a mayor for Europe's largest city. Following the unjust cancellation of it, the re-run was about a vote of confidence in AKP.
3
Erdogan won't need to import Cuban security forces — excuse me, technical consultants — like Venezuela's Maduro has to keep his hold on power in that failed state. Erdogan already has his own cadre of brutal incompetents. However, unlike political adversaries, economic failure cannot be made to disappear into a prison industrial complex.
3
@Mike T
In all turmoil moments, CIA advisors helped Turkey to stay in line with NATO and America.
Story of Gladio in short.
Turkey has always lean on good old friend, CIA advisors. CIA never failed to Turkey so far.
Funny how Tyrants never end up in a good place with the people...it's been true throughout history. And yet they continue to rise time and again...why do the people fail to see it?
2
Erdogan's economic programs seem to be a mirror of the Republican party's current approach. The only difference is that the man at the top seems more intelligent and capable.
8
@TVCritic
Not a big achievement for said man at the top.
4
Readers, with just a little editing this article could be about the good old USA.
Consider that since the Bush 43 presidency, we have been borrowing, borrowing, borrowing,...…..
First, Bush & Company passed a huge Tax Cut in 2001 prior to 911. Second, he and his cohorts (many Dems included) borrowed, borrowed, borrowed to finance the Afghan and Iraq wars and to give seniors Medicare Part D ("cheap" drugs).
Third, then the great recession that fueled more and more borrowing with Obama now in charge who let the those 2001 tax cuts become permanent.
Forth, now Trump borrowing, borrowing to create a police state in the guise of protecting us from immigrants, foreign competition (which is actually making our rich much richer), terrorism, and the Mullahs. Then another tax cut for the wealthy.
Now, who is in real economic trouble?
9
Istanbul is as representative of Turkey as Houston (Black Major, voted for Hillary) is of Texas
@Lars
Istanbul is representative of Turkey as New York, LA, San Francisco, Chicago , Atlanta, Miami combined for USA.
Istanbul is everything , that has always been, always be.
15 Million out of 80 Million, or American terms, 60 million out of 320 million population
Let's not forget, it is very likely that Turkey will be slapped with the U.S. sanctions very soon due to a recent defense missile system purchase from Russia. And if/when that happens, it will be the final nail in the coffin as far as Turkey's economy is concerned. No matter how you look at it, things will get very rough economically in Turkey. Most people who have done nothing wrong will suffer due to this largely ignorant and arrogant dictator who betrayed his countrymen countless times both politically and economically.
4
Thankfully, for Turks and for the world at large, the institution of the honest ballot box has not yet been completely destroyed in Turkey. There is hope.
4
I sympathize with the Turkish people. But the ballot box may not be around for much longer at least in Istanbul if voters there don’t soon get with Erdogan’s program and stop voting for the opposition.
2
Standard autocratic behavior. Everything must be fantastic and the best. Borrow like crazy to prop up the illusion. Attempt to manipulate interest rates. Anyone who says different is an “enemy of the people”. And of course the time honored trope of the “external enemy”. It doesn’t end well. Oh, and Erdogan is also doing the same thing.
11
Future headline: For Trump, the bill from US debt-fueled growth comes due.
4
@Corbin
Us has many advantages, Turkey cannot print Euro USD .
USD can only loose value which works better for US exports.
and many more.
Argentine and Turkey is mauled but debt trap , no way out , you have to pay.
1
I last visited Istanbul four years ago. Friends there more or less accepted Erdogan as a kind of softly autocratic religious visionary who was building a lot of big and interesting stuff. When I questioned what happens after this spectacular spree ends, I was told my concern was misplaced. It’s not misplaced now. Turkey is facing a monumental crisis, and I hope it does not result in violence.
9
@the doctor: 150 people were just sentenced to life imprisonment for participation in the failed coup against Erdogan.
3
Why not artfully skew government inflation numbers, telling everyone there is no inflation? It's what the US has done.
8
Be very careful what you wish for.
Recep Erdogan shattered the Kemal Attaturk separation between mosque and state that emphasized an ethnic sectarian inclusive Turkish civil secular nation state.
The Sunni Muslim ethnic Turks are an ethnic sectarian bulwark against Sunni Muslim Wahhabi ethnic Arabs and Sunni Muslim ethnic Kurds and Shia Muslim Arabs and Persians and Zionist Jewish European Israelis.
A volatile mix where the Kurds and Palestinians lack nation states where they are the ethnic majority.
4
"... he has in recent years attacked democratic institutions by crushing dissent, seizing the property of his enemies and muzzling the press."
The above was in reaction to a coup against Erdogan, that the US supported, possibly initiated. Erdogan was not submissive to US interests, and was too friendly to Russia.
The US is always happier to have an agreeable military "strongman" in power.
I wonder how much of Turkey's economic problems are due to the huge ability of the US to economically strangle countries that get in its way.
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/06/06/america-is-deploying-a-new-economic-arsenal-to-assert-its-power
Referring to the elected President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as "strongman" and "supreme leader" shows unnecessary bias.
3
@Lucy Cooke You obviously have not been paying attention to what has been happening to Turkey. Erdogan has removed everyone he can that he doesn’t like. The press, judges, academics, anyone that disputes his rule. Turkey was for nearly one hundred years a secular state but with his rise has become increasingly hyper-religious and oppressive. I see nothing to contradict the strongman and supreme leader designation.
5
I’m planning my vacation to the land of freedom and democracy?
Even if the economy in Turkey improves, the crushing debt load remains. Doesn't sound like a rosy future ahead.
7
In April, London School of Economics fellow Brian Klaas, wrote, "On Monday, President Trump called Erdogan, a long-standing NATO ally, and congratulated him for entrenching and formalizing his role as an authoritarian despot."
Congratulations to Turkey for making a positive step in cleaning off some of the rot of Trumpian despotism.
It's our turn next!
18
Turkey is such a fantastic country, that to see it flounder is painful and it has been going since I was there in 2007. Frankly, the people kept giving him more of what he wanted all along and they bear some of the blame. The country is a mess.
11
Erdogan's problem is political, and only secondarily economics. Leaving out politics
Basic economics
On debt, US vs Turkey
Economists recently argued that the US national debt doesn't matter as long as the average interest being paid on the debt is below the rate of growth of the economy.
(The current situation in the US)
The argument was developed by Blanchard [1] and publicized by Krugman [2]
Today's yield on the 10 year treasury bond is 2.07%, the yield on Turkey's 10 year bond 16.08 %.
So the debt situation for the US and Turkey is and was is very different. They US , by the Blanchard criterion can afford unlimited debt, Turkey never could
But the assumption that GDP growth >Interest rate, may not hold, even with the US advantage of owning the worlds
reserve currency. Once it fails to hold, the larger the debt, the more difficult it will to deal with it
[1] Public Debt and Low Interest Rates Olivier Blanchard
[2] On the Debt Non-Spiral Paul Krugman (NYT 9-11-18)
2
It always brings a smile to the face when a wannabe autocrat has to face the music.
9
Here in the US, we don't even get public works from debt accumulation, just more weapons.
21
@Steve Bolger
That is truly sad part of American debt.
3
Turkey, still after 100 years, remains the sick man of Europe.
7
I see another Jamaica commenter drawing the parallels I also saw in this story. Apart from the geographic location and the culture, the economic/financial storyline could have put the word “Jamaica” wherever “Turkey” was used — and it’s a very, very similar story. Huge debt is never sustainable but we chase “development” and “growth” in ways that create the illusion of these things. The only way out is very wise and judicious balance of “austerity” and targeted investments, while eliminating corruption. The latter is key. And rare, it seems.
4
no austerity, tax the rich
3
Autocrat, unethical, power hungry Erdogan has undermined all that has been good for the country. Crushing dissent, blaming every evil on his former rival Fetullah Gulen, Erdogan is about to destroy Turkey...I hope the country realizes the danger the country is in, and quickly replaces Erdogan and his cronies with sensible leaders.
13
Maybe he can score some help from his buddies over in Iran.
5
June 24, 2019
Excellent results for Turkey and its populace. The success for the voter opted for change is a very positive example of a strong populace with its will to be taken respectively and with honor to live gracefully.
4
Erdogan regularly makes dark statements about foreign agents being to blame for all the country's woes-- and he's not talking about Switzerland. I do not believe he will ever relinquish power, and with the military neutered and subjugated, there is no one to stop him. I predict that as the economy collapses, Erdogan will go full-bore Maduro; Venezuela and others have shown us that there is absolutely no slop the leader serves that his base will not gobble up.
Expect scenes of economic collapse; opposition politicians being disqualified, removed, and arrested; Europeans and especially Americans blamed for all economic problems; vast emigration to Europe that will make them wish for the good old days; and state seizure and control of industries, along with foreign investments confiscated, and a renunciation of non-islamic debt (which is all debt).
Turkey in 2040 will look very much like Iran in 2019 I fear.
10
@Alexander wishful thinking.
Turkey has often mismanaged the
economy in the past and rescued
with IMF loans. But Turkish officials
keep repeating the same mistake.
Also, lenders never learn to manage
the risk. they granted loans to the
construction companies in Spain.
Ireland and got into trouble. Now
the same mistake in Turkey. Hope they
take good haircut to learn the lesson.
7
If you think that Turkey is in bad shape, wait until the bill comes due in Russia. Wars have been initiated for much less of an excuse.
3
@Henrysor
Russia has a low debt to GDP ratio.
The US has one of the highest, but the US just prints more money,
2
@Henrysor, yes, Lucy, and so Trump leans on the fed for more fast highs for the market--why face a hangover when you can stay drunk?
5
In 2015, in Istanbul on the Asian side near the Bosporus, way off in the distance you could see rows of towers and cranes, mysterious new construction too far from the city center to make any sense.
Asking a local about this construction got a wry smile and a shake of the head.
15
Erdogan bought his support by funding the more politically and economic marginalized and religious segment of the population. I'm sure they believed that imposed secularism and the Turkish establishment (the axis of the military, established secular capitalists and media) were the "source" of their apparent oppression.
The ironic and somewhat depressing thing is this somewhat mirrors our own strongman, Trump. He was elected with the support of America's version of what seems like the same kind of people -- traditional-oriented in values, bitter that the modern economy had largely passed them by, and wishing to squelch the forces they believe responsible.
The difference here is Trump is only too willing to keep rewarding established corporate powers and hasn't somehow been dumping money into previous disenfranchised groups.
13
@Mobocracy Sounds like both Trump and Netanyahu - and before them Saddam and Qaddafi before - religion is the last refuge of scoundrels
6
Massive borrowing to boost growth numbers.
Strong-arm tactics against the media and political enemies.
A leader who refuses to acknowledge the results of elections.
Are we talking about Erdogan or Trump?
33
Reflecting on the Erdogan saga I realize there's a larger lesson here which is that nations which attempt to cling to cultural anachronisms as does Turkey, as does China, while attempting to compensate for the resulting in efficiency via debt, end up getting what they deserve as a product of their intellectual dishonesty and self-delusion.
6
@Bill Langeman ...unlike the US, of course.
2
TURKEY Is now on the short list of countries with the highest national debt. Turkey is #2, while Argentina is #1. Erdogan is also burdened by the fact that the Turkish Lira is indexed according to the value of the US Dollar. If the value of the Dollar goes up, even if the Lira stays the same or goes up less than the dollar, Turkey's debt still grows. It looks like Erdogan's juggernaut is winding down. From the results of the mayoralty race in Istanbul, he may be facing a slip into an economic maelstrom of his own making. Other oligarchs whose debt is structured differently, such as Russia's or Saudi Arabia's, don't affect top officials. Even if there is inflation in those countries, there is no democratic pretense at all. In Saudi Arabia, the leadership is monarchic, meaning that it is hereditary. In Russia, the leadership may as well be hereditary, though it's highly doubtful that Putin will have named Trump as his crown prince. Clown Price more like!
8
@John Jones yep - political ideology of all types tends to go out the window once the check arrives and people see what it cost them
2
@John Jones - A lie. Turkey's national debt was 30.4% of GDP which is comparatively low. For example, Japan's national debt was 253% of GDP. Argentina's, 86.2%. US - 105%. All these are gross debt which counts debts owed by one dept of the government to another dept.
BTW Our gross debt was 121% in 1946 and 16% in oCtober of 1929.
https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/government-debt-to-gdp
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp
etc.
1
@Len Charlap
Japan's debt is in yen. The Japanese are massive savers so the penalty for bad loans is borne by the country's savers, not overseas lenders.
3
I wake up feeling that almost every day feels like a Wednesday
Wednesday, October 23, 1929, to be exact
I wasn't even alive back then!
4
Crony capitalism is always a recipe for disaster.
12
@Tortuga Exactly, as the Japanese and Koreans can attest, and as the Chinese are about to learn
3
This article spends just one sentence describing what is REALLY wrong with Erdogan: "he has in recent years attacked democratic institutions by crushing dissent, seizing the property of his enemies and muzzling the press." This lawless dictator has destroyed the intellectual class, shut down dozens of universities, fired thousands of civil servants, and sent his jackboots after any source of organized criticism. And you are criticizing his economic policies? You can do better.
53
At least the Turks made their voices heard at the ballot box. Erdogan, a wanna be dictator, destroyed a thriving economy in his madness to get rid of his enemies. America could learn from this. Vote out those who are harming democracy and the values that made us great. Trump wants to be King Trump. Vote out the GOP!
26
@pb Erdogan controls the military, the economy, and the courts. He is fashioning Turkey into an Islamic state of some sort, and effectively rules the country as Sultan. There may be scenes of jubilation at this one small victory after so long of Erdogan crushing the opposition unchecked-- but... the Mayor of Istanbul? What does he do? Set the bus schedules?
3
@Alexander it makes a difference. Erdogan lost mayoral elections in every major city in the Turkey, which together make up almost 70 percent of GDP.
1
It's the Chavista "maduro-redo" economy that we're trying out.
3
Debt fueled growth? Sounds familiar, I know another country with a wannabe dictator that might eventually have to pay up.
21
This sounds a lot like Venezuela. I wonder whether, if Erdogan's rule becomes truly threatened, he will, like Maduro, cling to power any way he can.
Of course, if he were a left-wing tyrant, the current US administration would already be considering plans for regime change.
10
@Frank O
USA already tried regime change in Turkey back in July 2016, large part of US - Turkey friction today is due to that.
1
Erdogan Security Forces Launch ‘Brutal Attack’ on Washington Protesters, Officials Say
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/17/us/turkish-embassy-protest-dc.html
The loser is a thug.
10
“His installation of his son-in-law as paramount economic overseer last year damaged what meager confidence remained in the independence of Turkey’s central bank.”
My money is on Jared to be the new head of the Federal Reserve.
23
your point on Erdogan using debt to finance group is well taken especially when it is dollar denominated... however.. here in the US we are far worse.. we have printed 4 to 5 trillion dollars.. and multiple QEs and still we're not done. EU and JP is much worse.. they even have negative interest rate.. and most importantly Turkey has much lower debt to GDP ratio.. but US' advantage that it borrows in its own currency.. YES that is a big difference
Soon that will change when the dollar will be unseated.. look up PetroYuan guys on google... its future contracts are sold in Shanghai backed with gold
9
And yet, inflation and interest rates are at historical lows in the US, Japan, and EU despite all this debt. Moreover, debt has been growing steadily over decades while interest rates have stayed at extremely low levels.
3
@Salah Mansour the day the world gives its money to China to keep safe will be the day China takes over the world, but take a good look around, is money flowing in to China or out of China? Are wealthy Americans buying apartments in Beijing and sending their kids to school there? Would you trust a bunch of communists to look after your money? I think not at the moment.
9
@Norm Vinson "And yet, inflation and interest rates are at historical lows . . . ."
Interest rates are at historical because the US, UE and Japanese Central Banks have been artificially holding them down! Which is only going to make the situation much worse when the lid blows off this debt bubble. Meanwhile, the phenomenon has allowed unprofitable, poorly run, zombie companies to fritter away critical capital that could be used for real growth.
As for the inflation at historical lows, if you believe the "official" inflation numbers, I own a wonderful bridge that crosses the East River that you might be interested in purchasing. Official inflation numbers are a joke. Filled with dozens of result-driven caveats and theoretical rabbit holes, they reflect the real costs of nobody. Anyone who lives in this economy knows that prices of housing, transportation, health care, and education, to name just a few, have skyrocketed over the last decade. And it is indisputable that Americans' wages haven't increased in real terms in more that 40 years.
The bottom line is that we live in a debt based bubble economy of our own making and when we can no longer pull it off, the damage is going to make '08 look like a cocktail party.
9
"Strong men," in both life and politics, provide an illusion of security that comes at great cost.
15
With all the debt in this world, when it all comes due I’m extremely anxious to see into whose hand it goes.
12
Jamaica was once in the same boat, but being a much smaller country than Turkey it got worse & lasted longer. Our high debt in the 90's led to unusually high interest rates (50-60%). One could put money on CD's at 55%. Soon the economy crashed, 70 cents out of every tax dollar collected went to pay debt. It will take many years, and much hardship for Turkey to recover.
8
I traveled in Turkey in December 2001, after 9/11 and before the economy collapsed a few months later. The Turkish people were friendly and hospitable and the country is lovely and interesting (check out Cappadocia as just one example). The people deserve better governance, and I hope they get it.
26
Those very people kept voting for Erdogan and his disastrous policies for nearly two decades while democratic principles and institutions kept crumbing around them. Just last year they re-elected Erdogan while the countries descent on every front was accelerating. Now that the economy is in shambles, a small awakening seems to be happening.
21
@EB Erdogans strength has been with the conservative, traditional parts of society, not so much with the secular, educated voters. So sad. I love Turkey and many highly educated, tolerant Turkish citizens I have met. Years ago, so many were lamenting the turning of society toward conservative Islam. They are not exactly the people you accuse of supporting Erdogan.
3
Couldn't happen to a more deserving tyrant. Hopefully, the Turks will consign Erdogan to the dustbin of history, gone but not fogotten in a prison cell for all the executions, tortures, imprisonments and economic havoc he wreaked upon his long-suffering people.
96
Lesson to "Strongman" rulers including our own wanna be strongman Trump. You reap what you sow.
41
That Mr Erdogan is finally reaping the problems he has sowed himself, does not bother me. What bothers me however, is that once the economy declines, dictators tend to blame others for it. That is usually the point where they either target a minority part of their own population, or attack a neighbouring country.
66
@SJP
Erdogan has already done both, attacking Kurds in Turkey and rebels (including Kurds) in Syria.
13
@SJP
Like what we are doing with Iran externally and targeting Muslims and South Americans internally?
5
Strong man versus people making a man strong or weak. could Turkish people learn a few things from Hong Kong people who said no to a strong woman? I don't think so. To live as an immigrant in the NYC is more safer than bring a respectable member of Istanbul-even with the complications of the USA elections. It is sad to live fake modernism infection in Istanbul. The repeated election is no different from what a doctor do to tissue with abscess. Turkey, USA must learn from Hong Kong people!
9
@Bedia: the Hong Kong situation is much more complex than you assume. Watch out that you are not mischaracterising Carrie Lam. She has done a lot of good. She does not deserve to suffer for one ill-advised piece of legislation that was intended to bring more justice. Some legal experts actually think the legislation was good.
Many of the people were not simply marching against the extradition amendment - many are simply concerned for the future and the government is an easy scapegoat. Most countries are envious of the good state of the HK economy. The problem is that the wealth is not distributed enough. Property is extremely expensive. Carrie took a golf course to turn into housing for the hard-working common people, but this put the noses of some of the wealthy out of joint.
6
@Andrew As a student of the Istanbul University I used to adore Mao Tse Tung. Cultural Revolution, etc. Disappointment. Sadness felt for the Chinese, the enemy of the Turkic speaking people. I could both appreciate and look at Madam Lam. Yes, money, I am well aware, but the Hong Kong Youth took me to the missed idealism of my young days. I wish the best for the Hong Kong youth teaching an important lesson to the world and Madam Lam. And thank you for what you say to me.
"Having cultivated power by diminishing the role of the military in national life ..."
Most likely Erdogan organized that attack on him several years back, blaming the military for starting a revolution. Thousands were put in jail punished with lifelong forced labor, many others out of a job, etc. A very dangerous dictator hiding behind the Muslim religion, brownnosing Putin, while still being a NATO member. Obviously more to follow in that he won't give up - Turkey has become a wasted space.
31
@rudolf No, if you saw how scared he looked in that footage of him with his phone, taken during the coup... (I wish I could locate it again on the internet but I can't.)
2
Are you listening democratic candidates? We can not afford your agendas. We need bipartisan debt reduction now, starting with Medicare and social security and other entitlements. Where are the responsible adults? Trump surely isn’t one, and none of the democrats are either. Stop the madness!
5
“Responsible adults” know that debt reduction in the US will start with a roll back of all the tax cuts given to the rich and rich corporations.
88
@DRS: Well that’s predictable..... point out the massive fallout from an out of control foreign narcissist leader in order to call for furthering the agenda of our own narcissistic leader. And don’t forget to use the wonderful misnomer “ Entitlements “ when referring to those programs that WE THE PEOPLE have and continue to pay for. Then conveniently call for doing away with said “ Entitlements “ instead of trying to improve them: I’m sure we all have enough saved for retirement, can go to Canada to fill our prescriptions, & can plan our medical procedures during our overseas vacations....
25
@DRS: coming up with affordable health care for all would be a good step. I hope you support that as it would be a good way to bring costs down.
Incidentally, I don’t think you are aware of how the playing field is tilted towards the rich. Rather than cutting the programs you mention, it would be better to cut the benefits to the rich.
24
This article is not flattering of Erdogan
Sad to see ordinary people of Turkey are suffering from inflation and mismanagement
3
Re "... he has produced expansion by resorting aggressively to debt."
Sincere question from a liberal: Why is the U.S. national debt not even discussed as an afterthought by any candidate of any political party?
The GOP is brazenly disingenuous, of course, becoming "hawkish" (I use the term loosely) on debt only when a Democratic administration is in the White House, and otherwise hewing to Darth Cheney's sage proclamation that, "Deficits don't matter."
I realize that very smart people educated in economics — Paul Krugman comes to mind — are continually telling us that, for now, the national debt doesn't really matter. Yet they also acknowledge that it will matter very much at some point.
So why aren't any of the Democratic candidates talking about it?
Just curious.
17
@CB Evans, it is not the debt but how it is used creates the problems. Many, if not most of the highrise buildings in Istanbul are empty because they were built on empty promises. On the other hand, when properly used and allocated, debt can save a huge sector like the auto industry in this country. That kind of debt strengthens the economy. So, don't blame the debt and those who support using it to elevate the economy.
9
@Cemal Ekin
I appreciate that insight. And I tend to trust people like Krugman.
But, from your perspective, is there any time at which a spiraling U.S. debt should become a concern?
2
@CB Evans, yes. But not as we see in Turkey, it has been a problem, visible problem for many years.
2
As with Brexit; one man messes things up and then walks away to leave others to sort it out. In some ways, I guess he is grateful to be elected out of it all.
We should expect the same with Trump...
5
This is the achilles heel of authoritarian regimes---there is no marketplace of ideas or dissent. Without checks and balances you end up with one man calling all the shots---No one person can navigate the economic, social, diplomatic complexities of the modern era. Even with the best advisors and checks and balances getting right into today's global world is difficult. Having said that, I share the same worry with our current President, who, is governing based on his gut and family members whispering in his ear.
44
Forgot to mention : Turkey has not only the largest airport in the world ( opened recently), but also all internet servers in the ME go through Turkey, who censor information
Credible source for this?
11
What about the religious aspect? The president is a graduate of an Imam school. Is he going to continue building those and pushing a conservative religious agenda or will the opposition now steer Turkey back to its secular roots?
16
Yes, same question. There's history here; Turkey used to be more secular. Iran used to be more secular. One thing Hillary Clinton understood was Soft Diplomacy; Cultural exchange, warmth between nations. Call it a "woman's touch" if you like, but conflict experts know if you are going to keep nation's open and communicating you need "coffee" not "coffins."
7
May it be so here. Autocratic rule based on piles of debt sounds all too familiar.
22
Are you listening, Mr. McConnell, Mr. Ryan, and Mr. Trump??
28
For Erdogan the bill for running roughshod over democracy has come due.
20
Massive economic stimulus-think tax cuts, record spending-think US budget, inconceivable debt and growing-think US deficit, calling the press the enemy. Sound familiar?
141
@Larry
Bingo - and add to that attacking the press and political opponents. They are both using the same playbook.
15
@Larry - You have to read the article carefully to distinguish between public (national) debt and private debt. Turkey has low public debt (30.5%) of GDP (Japan's is 253% of GDP). It is the private (mainly corporate) debt that is killing Turkey.
That is what caused the crash of 2008 in the US. Except for a brief period in 2003, the trade deficit (which took money OUT of the private sector) was larger than the federal deficit (which put money INTO the private sector), so the net flow was OUT.
Thus people and corporations had to borrow within the private sector to get money to buy and sell stuff. Private debt exploded. By 2007, the big banks had loan amounts 27 or 28 TIMES what they had in reserves. The banking system could not support this.
Only the FED by creating and pouring TRILLIONS into the banking system saved it and us from a real depression like 1929. But it wasn't pretty.
8
I fear Turkey will borrow to its limits in order to continue the growth. There will inevitably be a collapse some years hence, that will be far, far worse than Greece.
22
I have seen little discussion in US news services of the Turkish drilling ship currently sitting atop the contested Aphrodite gas field off the Paphos coast of Cyprus. The rich natural gas reserves of Cyprus are supposed to be developed by American companies - Exxon and Mobil, making this a direct challenge to US economic interests as well as violating any number of treaties and exacerbating the long-standing Cyprus Problem. However, the wealth of these gas fields also provide Erdogan with a potential solution to his financial woes.
These election results, Turkey’s imminent financial crisis, and Turkey’s belligerent actions in the Mediterranean provide the Trump administration with a new set of levers to manipulate to ensure the reunification of Cyprus, the stability of Turkey, and the continued efficacy of NATO, but only if they act swiftly and decisively. Otherwise, Erdogan will be driven into the arms of Putin, with disastrous long term results for global democracy.
33
Really, this is about economics? Not Erdogan’s chipping away at personal freedoms and often violent suppression of political dissent? A supposed analysis of this election without mention of - among other events - the Gezi Park protests is suffering from a serious case of tunnel vision.
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@P Yaeger
This is an article on the economic situation. The main article about the election and its political ramifications is in the main section.
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Good thing the article directly below this one in today's updates is all about exactly that so maybe you'll be able to forgive the author for avoiding redundancy.
2
@Networthy There's 3 million NYT subscribers. Maybe you didn't notice the mid-term results in which more than 60 million people voted D. We want fairness for our fellow Americans--regardless of the color of their skins. We know that the richest nation on earth can afford to take care of its sick, its elderly, and its young. We know that immigration is in our nation's genes and a boon to our economy. We know that humans are damaging the environment and we want to do something about it. And we despise the grift, the constant lying, the vicious bigotry and the kowtowing to the wealthiest that are the hallmarks of Trump and the Republican Party.
In other words: Money matters, but it does not trump our feelings for our fellow humand and for nature, our love for democracy, or our desire for decency in our White House.
4
“Those in control of money have lost trust...” Can we start naming names so the plebes can know exactly who keeps these strongman in power?
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To be fair, Erdogan's voter base is the poor, the religious, and people living in rural areas. He's never had a lead among wealthier Turks, and he has few friends internationally.
5
A cornered would be strongman is not a pretty sight. How Erdogan moves on from this will be test of his statesmanship, self awareness and nobility. I hope he has that but I fear he may not.
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@Michael Hey, does your comment apply to anyone else? . . . right around the corner in Washington? In that case, you can forget about the hope, bro!
2