Why should Democrats pay attention to this person?
When all is said and done, I think he would vote for Trump no matter who might beat to Joe Biden.
44
“Amour proper” ---self love---that's smilin' Biden. He exudes it.
Why, in 2020-- our most crucial election-- do we voters have to tolerate anyone who is ‘shambolic’ (muddled)? Aging, garrulous, and let’s face it, feckless. With so many better and reality-oriented candidates responding to our great and ignored needs?
Too many US voters have been conditioned to put up with 2nd rate "representation for their taxation." Do the Bidenites like him because he’s ‘un PC’, like the Trumpites stick to their guy, no matter what he does/says?
Some black politicians will stick to Biden no matter what, because he’s linked to Obama---who is achieving American sainthood compared to the worst president who daily insults America. What is Obama thinking now, watching this spectacle of his former VP?
It should be easy for other candidates to show contrasts with this “old, confused man, out of his time, even Trump-y in his own right.” Yes, Trump-y. That’s the weird irony of the current campaign.
This Uncle Joe persona would have negative effect on any family Thanksgiving dinner. And on our election.
13
Biden/Harris. Unbeatable.
17
I have never in all my 64 years read such a "hit job" on a fellow Democrat. President Obama was correct. He called it a circular
firing squad.
I thought we as Democrats did not resort to the mean, lying and nasty politics that the republicans do.
Shame on the writer and the NYT of this column. Way to go in turning this fine gentleman into a political enemy.
The writer and commenters need to find ways to beat trump.
35
"How to Beat Joe Biden"
Biden may very well be beaten
By whom?
Trump.
Thanks to people like Ross Douthat, who mercilessly trashes the people's choice for president according to the polls.
30
No one has to beat Joe. Joe will implode all by himself, as did Hillary. Joe is Hillary 2.0, just older and more frail.
31
Dear NYT:
How many “ conservative “ pundits can dance on the head of a Pin ??? Spare us, please. I’m exhausted.
38
The Biden strategy so far suggests a focus on winning, or winning back, those few states that nailed down Trump’s electoral-college victory, if not the popular vote. And then count on the rank-and-file Democratic voters who will always turn out, or will certainly turn out to defeat Trump. It’s not razzle-dazzle and it will give millennials a reason to sit out the election—again—but that’s who Biden is, a career politician from another era.
The disappointing, and possibly risky, aspect to his candidacy is that it ignores Obama’s success—twice—running in an already-divided country: an inspiring, forward-looking candidate who got out the vote of varied groups of potential Democrats. I think in Axelrod Obama had the most savvy of campaign manager-organizers, whereas most Dems look to old pros and, like Hillary, conventional, past election dynamics.
...Which is to say, in an election where I’ll vote for ANYONE to oust Trump, Biden would make me nervous. He might be susceptible the kind of Hillary-think and campaign clunkers that un-inspire voters just enough.
14
Most human beings are afraid of the unknown. They seek comfort and shelter in and with the obvious, known, and same. Generally, the status quo makes older people comfortable and younger people uneasy since they don't see much in the way of change. FDR (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) was able to enact sweeping change and overturn the status quo because things were so bad there was not much left to lose. Bernie Sanders tried to win over the American populace and came very close but fell short. Enter D. Trump. We are not yet where we were economically in the great depression but in many other ways we are perilously close to a civil divide that may fracture the country in ways not seen since the civil war. Sanders, Warren, Gillibrand, AOC and another dozen or so fresh voices are leading a progressive push we have not seen since FDR. On the other end of the spectrum is J. Biden with older and elderly Americans supporting the known, same, comfortable path. Can we afford trying to steer down the middle or is it time to push for strong reforms and changes. Desperate times call for desperate measures. It looks as if we are perilously close to desperation time.
7
What does it matter what presidential candidates say before they are elected? Usually they promise hope and better times but when in office they deliver turmoil and despair.
Reminds one of Wordsworth who said “ we poets in our youth begin in gladness, there-off comes despondency and madness .
9
Some people who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 instead voted for Trump in 2016. They may have traditionally been republican voters. The challenge for whoever the democratic candidate is in 2020 will be to get back the support from these voters. The candidate and the democratic party will have to figure why these folks who voted for Obama switched to Trump. Were they unhappy with Obama and why? Did they dislike Hillary ? Some or many of them did not like Sanders either and would have rather supported Trump. Others voted for Trump and the GOP even though they don't like the party policy on guns. The factors that favor Trump are incumbency and a massively funded campaign.
4
There is definitely a generation gap. Older people don't like being told they are wrong when they're right. Young people don't like being told they are wrong when they're wrong.
There's a rage directed at the older generation. We destroyed the planet. We are going to be an enormous tax burden to the young with the high cost of Social Security and Medicare. Like we didn't pay into it.They want the government to take care of them with a New Green Deal but are only concerned with themselves.
Warren bridges the gap. We can do much better she says but in reality we are too divided. People who are relatively wealthy or on their way to wealth only care about about their own wallet. Their interest are not the same.
6
This primary season for me boils down to one question only. Who has the best chance to beat Trump and restore some dignity to our nation, restore some sense of predictability for our allies, restore a sense of safety and forward momentum for minorities (black, brown, gay, all religious convictions and no religious convictions, and yes, women). I felt before he entered the race that Biden was that person and I still feel that way today.
19
Obama knows how Biden will behave as President. Was Biden advisor-in-chief for the green politician? Did Biden temper Obama's anti-corporate tendencies? Did Biden slow down Obama's progressive impulses? If Biden becomes President, Obama will have a best seller to write.
What did Joe Biden accomplish as Vice President?
5
Let's hope Biden isn't the Dems choice. He seems like an honorable and moral man for the most part, but if we're going to elect an older man,I hope it's Bernie. However, it's way past time for this country to have a woman leader,like so many countries around the world.I think Warren can beat Trump if she has the support from those wanting an honest President with brains instead of what passes now.
12
Sure - if it works - Biden/Warren and Warren in 2024. She can make policy like Cheney did with the inept Bush.
7
If you think the US is going to elect a Jewish socialist, a woman, or a gay president in 2020, you've got another think coming. Sadly, Biden is the Democrats only chance given the nature of the electorate.
13
Biden's gaffes are minor when considering that his opponent Donald Trump is racist, sexist and misogynist. Biden is basically a decent guy with vast experience and knowledge in government, in contrast to a trump who has some mental disorder and is ignorant,reckless and destructive. The big question would be whether Biden can get sufficient votes from white voters without a college degree in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia and other states that Hillary narrowly won, needed to win in 2020. He could win even if he looses Florida which might go narrowly to Trump.
13
Ross, you can analyze Biden or any candidate anyway you want, all the negatives and at the end you must compare them to the other choice, Trump. I would vote a 85 yo slightly demented person in a wheel chair over Trump.
Voters are going to vote trump (40%) no matter what and the rest are anti Trump no matter who runs. Its not policy or ability its getting crazy man out.
26
Well, maybe we should just wait a bit and see? Jim Clyburn basically fired a shot across Joe’s bow yesterday, after all, about
Being on top form for this week’s debate.
Another play is for an enterprisingly dubious Democrat candidate, which are plenty, to stage a touching incident.
The fail safe play is to get out of Biden's way.
2
Booker, Harris, and others are trying to weaken Biden as they can. Biden represents the compromising over issues that are extremely emotional and have annoyed people for a long time. But achieving the kinds of things that the laws and government can do will never address those emotional aspects of serious issues. We as a country do not address political problems rationally, it’s all selling issues emotionally and running on promises to relieve the hurts.
Biden revealed a truth that to work with people one must see them as human so that they will see you as human, too. Otherwise one cannot communicate freely. But what is making people angry with Biden is his presenting bigoted white supremacists as people instead of horned demons fresh from Hell. The reservoir of resentment and rage against four hundred years of evil treatment is not to be ignored. But we live in a republic in which we must share our future with a lot of people towards who we have bad histories. To work for the good of all requires treating everyone the same, even those with who we have serous complaints.
7
Wishful thinking from the righteous right.
6
Ross, how bad are things behind the scenes in Congress?
Is Mitch McConnell having knife fights with Chuck Schumer?
Is Nancy Pelosi setting Kevin McCarthy on fire and making Smores from his ashes?
Hardly.
So let's be real for a moment.
They still spend their time raising money for their next election, eating at the very same establishments with the very same lobbyists who used to be in Congress and whore themselves endlessly to the very same donor class.
Then make speeches. Lots of gabbing.
We would like to think that everything is about issues, but that is only in terms of how to frame their arguments for what they see as their "base".
And how much longer will someone like AOC maintain her hopeful and believing demeanor in this kind of world?
The only rights and wrongs in this world is power Ross.
Thus, as far as Biden or whomever, I could care less.
For me, the ONLY issue that matters is Donald Trump and how we have legitimized both him and how he was elected.
I hold the entirety of Congress responsible for this and sometimes I feel like they are all laughing at us. Sheep are everywhere.
But again, I must stress that while I care about issues, the only one that matters to me is Trump and his removal from office.
In that respect, any Democrat can serve in that role if there is not going to be an impeachment process.
I highly suggest that you go the very same route Ross.
First Trump, then onto the other issues.
13
This perspective over estimates the value of the voting class in Biden's view of the race. His contetuency is on Wall Street.
2
Biden ran for president in 1988 and 2008 and now in 2019.
Biden is not a good campaigner or candidate and he will be overwhelmed as he was the other two times. It's time for a woman to take sit in the Oval and protect our national security, help the American people, and not waste time thinking about going to war.
5
@Jacquie Biden also helps elect Republicans.
Biden once accepted $200,000 to give a speech in support of Republican Fred Upton, who was in a difficult fight against a Democratic challenger.
5
A message to the left: I will vote for a Progressive if that person is the candidate if you will vote for a Centrist if that person is the candidate. NO EXCUSES
9
Here's a question for all of you who say that Biden is naive and out of touch to think republicans will work with him. Elizabeth Warren has a thick book of detailed policies. How does she plan to get them passed? Given that you believe conservatives will not work with Democrats on anything (and you may well be right), perhaps the only thing anyone can do is reverse this administration's worst damage at home and abroad
3
Biden is a good man. If he is the parties choice, that would be a mistake. We dont need more of the same/moderate/psuedo progressive politics. Is an effort being made to discredit him by vocalizing his poor choice of words/changing positions? Maybe/likely. I dont seen him being comfortable with Warren as president and him as VP- It is ridiculous to assume a front runner now will be in a year
2
Is Biden to the right of Obama? That's how he was perceived when the Democrats chose him as Obama's running mate. He was the avuncular old white guy who would balance the "yes we can" liberalism of candidate Obama, the glib president who never could. Move far enough to the right and it's easy to get along with the Republicans, making "bi-partisan" deals that split the miniscule difference. When Biden says he made deals with segregationist Dixicrats, bear in mind that this feat is easier to accomplish when you're not that different from them in the first place.
5
Biden is this year’s Jeb. The Establishment wants to anoint him, but it’s just going to work.
7
Watching Trump live tweet his commentary on this cast of misfits during their 'Hollywood Squares' style debates should be hilarious.
2
Do you really approve of a President who sits around playing with his phone like a teenager rather than doing his job? I don’t. I believe he has more important things to do.
11
However he sees his own self-worth, being, or political gravitas, it remains true--and will for the election unless the DNC Politburo can find a means to get him off the stage--that without him the center of the Democratic party, what’s left of it, anyway, will either wander off or not vote at all--a sort of pocket veto on the Cultural Marxist ideology of the Grand Collective and identity politics that has taken over the party, and that is the real political "dilemma" the Democrats and our Sovietized mass-media will face till at least the convention.
However, the hate-Trump piñata parties will remain ad nauseam, either way, especially within NYT Opinion Kingdom.
6
To say Biden can’t appeal to progressives or minorities shows a lack of understanding of his record. To say centrist democrats are just republicans in waiting is ludicrous. I am turned off by far left wing fantasies that sweeping change will just happen if Bernie or Warren are elected. The arrogance of the left reminds me of adolescent children who think they know it all. They need to learn to work in the real world.
9
The lead in to your op-ed itself indicates that Joe Biden will be the Democratic candidate. But all the negative dissertation of Joe Biden should be in context to the Republican candidate, Trump. Handsiness? As opposed to direct sexual assault? The answer in itself is evident as is the rest of the opinion column.
8
Biden doesn't need to be attacked, he is going to evaporate like Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Wesley Clark.
He is the front runner punch bag to deflect all attacks from the right, to protect the emerging candidate that will raise from the pack, so do not attack Biden, he'll be gone before long.
Also, do not attack Booker, he is going nowhere.
6
Just because Polls say so does not make Biden a front runner. It is too soon to tell, too many candidates to be vetted, a few debates to watch before any Opinion Columnist, poll-taker or political pundit should even be forecasting what the result will be within the Democrats who have filed.
I think we all have to cool our jets and watch and listen closely to all of the candidates before we start declaring anyone a front runner.
Anything can happen and probably will.
4
Keeping in mind that the goal is to beat Trump in 2020, there is an inherent problem with supporting a candidate who is too leftist. Many who may take Biden's place are exactly that - too leftist. They will have the support of the most progressive, leftist Democrats in our nation. But those who don't stand with the most radical, extreme views - who are Republican on certain issues - will not support those candidates. And obviously the staunch Republicans won't. That is why having a moderate candidate like Joe Biden is so very important. He is the very best chance of beating Trump right now, because, as an old, white man, and a centrist, he has the ability to appeal to both sides.
3
@Gary Miller-you are right, in my view, about everything you say. Most replies to you are quite misplaced. Having lived in Philadelphia for 20 years, as a mainstream liberal, I was always cognizant of the fact that, as James Carville famously said, "Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in between." This is why the state goes back and forth between Democratic and Republican governors and has (too often) had a majority Republican legislature. These "salt of the earth" types are very real there; I did not think you were talking about the more diverse population in Philadelphia, which reliably votes Democratic. That is not the problem. Nor is it the problem in Michigan or Ohio or other places Biden can likely win if the Democrats are smart enough to support a nominee who can win in places other than liberal enclaves. I am also disheartened by those who cannot grasp that if Biden inspires votes by a more moderate contingency he can still serve progressive goals too--it is not a one-or-the-other choice; he isn't going to throw anyone under any bus by recognizing the needs of a broader constituency. A President's job is to address the legitimate needs of all citizens, starting with those who need the government's help the most. This has been ignored and turned on its head by the Republicans; they are looting the country for the richest and abusing the most vulnerable.
8
I don’t think his rivals need to do anything he won’t do to himself.
Biden has served prominently in the Senate for many decades before being Obama’s V.P. His relationships in the Party far exceed any of the others running.
That legacy worries his competitors about their hopes to become the Democratic nominee. Any opportunity to weaken his support becomes an irresistible opportunity. But Obama is right, this way of competing could result in nobody being able to maintain unified support in November 2020, and Trump will play back it all, then.
What did Biden do? He showed that reaching across the aisle is not possible if each side treats their opposites like demons but must treat them as people and that treating everyone the same is how to get things done. But it seemed like normalizing evil to people who have no desire to deal with those who have committed egregious wrongs.
2
Joe certainly has the self-love down pat. When it was his time for questioning during a committee hearing, a news agency counted the number of times he said "I" or "me". There were more of those than minutes he was allocated. Shortly after he election, you could almost hear him thinking like Clinton proclaimed, "now it is my turn". This gives him a sense of entitlement. He can snuggle women's hair whenever he wants to.
He can flip flop on anything to get votes. He supports the Hyde Amendment until the wind of votes moves in a different way, then it's goodbye Hyde. His big problem is he is out of touch with the intolerance of his party. If he or anyone in his party thinks or says something they don't like, forget working together. Representative Omar is a heroine of diversity until she says something they don't like and she viciously attacked. Thinking differently is not what they mean by diversity. She must apologize. Biden working with people he vehemently disagrees with cannot be tolerated. He must apologize. Since Trump became president, they have not brought one meaningful piece of legislation to the floor for a vote. They were busy patting themselves on their backs talking about Russia, assured that Mueller would find collusion. Pelosi goes to the White House to talk about infrastructure. Minutes before she walks through the door, she calls reporters over blasts Trump. Good by infrastructure. By the time the debates are over it will be goodbye a shredded Biden.
2
You are talking about two different things when you talk about "progressives". One hand there are the take no prisoners culture warriors. On the other there are those most concerned about economic inequality. They overlap but they are not the same. Biden's commitment to bipartisan compromise would be appealing but for two problems. The first is that long as the GOP controls the Senate and is led by McConnell who is committed as he freely admits to making sure that the Democrats fail there will never be opportunity for compromise. The second is that as long as the "moderate" Democratic establishment moves to the economic right in their fruitless quest for compromise and successful quest for large donations from the economically privileged. there is no one in power speaking for those on the economic left. For many economic progressives while we recognize the need for compromise and negotiation, we do not want to be pushed out of the conversation by "moderates." That is why many of us are drawn to Elizabeth Warren who is an idealist in her thinking and a pragmatist in her execution.
7
Biden could actually make a very decent one-term President who would serve the purpose of ridding us of the disease that is Donald Trump.
If midway through his first term he decides to not seek re-election, but give the inside track to his VP, say, Kamala Harris, he will have earned a treasured spot in American history.
2
Kamala Harris and Gillibrand Will not win an election for president.
2
Ross, all you columnists presume to know what various demographic cadres are thinking. Well, I am almost 69 and I support Mayor Pete for President, and a lot of the boomers I know have been waiting for 'democratic socialism' since high school.
8
I'm a Warren supporter but I don't buy into "the never Biden" trope. Biden is not Clinton and certainly not trump-like as Ross would suggest. What bothers me about Joe is that his positions do not seem to be well thought out as are Warrens. He certainly has had enough years in politics and government to be able to figure this out. After the meandering fiasco that is trump we need someone who has studied history, the facts, conditions on the ground and developed a plan(s) and how we are going to implement them and pay for them. Warren has, Joe hasn't. "Vote for me I'm a moderate" just doesn't cut it.
6
@Steve
Warren has too many positions, most of which will never move forward.
2
@Stuart
I'll take substance.
4
Look, he's not my preferred choice, that distinction going to Buttigieg with Harris following closely behind BUT I'll gladly support him if he's the nominee and I will repudiate anyone who resorts to unfair attacks upon him such as those made by Booker this week. Biden is most certainly NOT racist and what's more a Biden administration would be a very reasonable place to hang one's hat. Considering that my politics are much more closely aligned with Pelosi than AOC, my comment might seem unremarkable but if Trump has taught us anything it's that we certainly should NOT expect too much from candidates running for president.
9
@ManhattanWilliam
I don't think Senator Booker understands that Biden was saying that having a segregationist Democratic senator call a junior senator from Delaware 'son' is demeaning to a white man as calling a black man 'boy' is.
If Senator Booker and Biden's other critics understood what Biden actually said - and we only have snippets from press pool reports - then there would have been no outcry.
The devolutionary media, of course, has rarely understood anything Biden has had to say over the course of his career as a public servant.
3
The fact that voters choose party nominees in low turnout primary elections or in low attendance party caucuses has opened the nominating process to both prominent and not-so-prominent people who possess the desire to run, the energy to campaign, and access to certain resources.
Over time candidates have had to start their campaigns earlier and run harder because the so-called "invisible primary" is the time when they demonstrate the ability to raise money, score well in the polls, and command attention by way of their debate performances.
Eventually, early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire are held. Despite the fact that neither of these states is demographically representative of the country, the key point at this juncture is that fast starters gain momentum. In turn, this means more media coverage, more contributions, and more voter consideration in subsequent primaries.
Absence of name recognition almost automatically disqualifies some candidates. They can't buy advertising because they do not generally raise a lot of money. Thus, the press ignores them. Certainly there are exceptions to this circumstance; for example, both Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders built a brand.
But look what name recognition did for Donald Trump. From the get-go, he had less need to run ads because of the amount of news coverage - "free media" - that he received in comparison to his rivals.
As for Joe Biden, he has name recognition. Whether that is enough remains to be seen.
3
The Democrats have been trying to appeal to the centre ever since Reagan. The results have been disastrous for the party. Yes, the two Democrats who have managed to win the Presidency did so as centrists. But Bill Clinton was helped by Ross Perot stealing White Republican votes in 1992 and (to a lesser degree) 1994. Clinton only won 39% of the White vote in 92 and, despite a strong economy, only 44% in 94. Obama had only 43% in 2008, dwindling to 39% in 2012. Clinton (a centrist) got a dismal 37%, Kerry 41%, Gore 42%.
The reality is White centrists who are willing to vote for Democrats are a tiny fraction of the voters—and most will swing back to the Republicans given a decent, relatively moderate Republican candidate. The Democrats need to abandon the strategy of chasing fickle White voters and focus more on increasing turnout among their loyal base. That means appealing strongly to minorities and liberal Whites, as well as younger voters and female voters.
Older white men who define themselves as centrist, moderate, or independent are a disaster for the Democrats. Try to win a few, sure. But that's a constituency that leans heavily Republican and may occasionally vote for a Democrat when the Republican alternative is unattractive but will never be a reliable Democratic constituency.
Biden might win by courting centrist Whites. If he does, though, he will only further muddle the Democrats' brand, deflate the enthusiasm of real Democrats, and preserve GOP dominance.
9
Biden is the only one who can beat Trump. He should say, "I will reverse everything Trump has done in the last four years", "I will not say anything bad about my fellow Democrats", "I can work with Republicans" and, "I will never lie to you". That's all, no ten point plan FOX can tear apart. He should just remind people about what Trump has done and he'll win by a landslide.
11
@Avid NYT Reader
Were it that simple. Every Republican candidate that stood on the platform with trump was subjected to his bullying and humiliation They all had experience or political accomplishments (except Carson and Fiorina). they all lost to trump.
1
The problem with Biden is that he cannot win in the electoral college without motivating a large turnout in Pa, Wisconsin, MIch. Those are all that matters. His lack of appeal to progressives, young voters and miniorities will result in a popular vote victory and loss to the electors. He will not win Fla, Tx, NC or any confederate states. The problem in 2016 wasn't people who did not vote for HRC, it was people who did not vote at all. You can see the GOP strategy right now is to highlight the ambiguity of Biden's position vis a vis the old Dixiecrats to reduce turnout.
2
The debates will clear some sludge in the Democratic Party pipes. One. Hopes.
That only happens if the news media does its job, asks the hard questions - especially how to pay for promised unicorns and glitter - and then KEEPS doing its job. The U.S. once had the world's finest news media. Those days are gone. But enough remains that the press can still bring the facts and information to the citizenry. Sadly, we don't haver the luxury of the BBC and PBS as our core national news.
Our press is a corporate conglomerate amalgam of entertainment, advertising, self-serving Sunday news talk shows, with a lot of forgettable feature and feel-good cotton candy. But the U.S. press can summon the spine and corporate will to press forward when it wants to. It must return to that editorial state, instead of kicking back as if the 2020 elections (national, state and local) are just another scheduled sporting event.
The prescription for what ails the weak press, weakened nation and distrusting people is facts. There are not two sides to facts, there is no coddling of fee-fees or identity politics to facts.
Every candidate needs to be grilled on their policies, past and present, and how they will pay for it all - and by whom. A president needs to be 100% facts and math, not some fuzzy feel good partisan therapist. All candidates today are packaged products, commodified. So is the U.S. press since the 1980s.
The honest candidates will shine, the opportunists will not. Vote accordingly.
7
@Maggie
If we were serious about understanding candidates' policy ideas, a straightforward Q & A in-depth interview might work. On tape, live or in print. But what fun would that be?
Let us proles be honest here. "Debates" with 10 onstage are ridiculous - how can they offer anything more than beauty contests, or maybe a best-dressed version of "Survivor"? All they will do is eliminate those who trip themselves up with excessive doublespeak or show too much perspiration under the lights. They'll also gift Trump a wealth of Twittable material to mine. I'm looking forward to watching the shows, nonetheless, hoping that my favorite horses emerge unmuddied.
The BBC online news, by the way, has become tabloid quality, with few exceptions. Quality journalism exists in rare foxholes in the electronic era, only occasionally bubbling up through the strata of clickbait garbage, and increasingly found only behind ever more fortified paywalls. It would be fascinating to review the textbooks being used in today's J. schools; or maybe there aren't any.
1
In 1964 after the Civil Rights Act the GOP became the anti liberal party. Conservatism was never a mainstay of American politics and even the great "conservative guru" William F Buckley Jr was never conservative he was a right wing reactionary like his Father who was proud to call himself a Franco Fascist.
There is nothing even vaguely American in today's GOP it is America trying to re-establish its 15th century European roots its European values and the European ethos it had started to abandon five centuries ago.
I don't pretend to understand how the word conservative was attached to a political and social philosophy that is radical in its attack on a society that evolved from the European claims on New World Lands to the passage of the Civil Rights Act.
America began with the Spanish Inquisition and ended with the 1964 Civil Rights Act. The almost five hundred years of evolution never manifested itself as a desire to return Isabella's Spain or Cromwell's England.
America has seen 500 years of liberalism where liberalism can be defined as the decline of autocracy has been the one constant in the flow of sand through the hour glass.
Joe Biden is the standard bearer for conservatism in America but America is being pulled apart by two very distinct forces both revolutionary and neither conservative. One force authoritarian and one force liberal and neither side interested in moderation, evolution or compromise.
4
Both Trump and Biden have tendencies to say or do stupid things.
Trump gets elected saying/doing stupid things
Biden gets dissed for saying/doing stupid things
That, my friends, is the difference in their bases.
8
I think of Biden the same way as I did of Hillary in the sense that he would be a “placeholder” POTUS, and at least act responsibly and rid us of Trump. Despite his inevitable gaffes, he is far more likable than Hillary and I think he can win.
4
I share Bill Maher's opinion that Winfrey would be the perfect Democratic candidate. (If Trump is any indication, the electorate seems to crave celebrity above all else.) Barring that eventuality, I'll vote for any Democratic nominee in the general election, including Biden. In my humble opinion, they're all sleazy politicians. Sanders is pro-gun because he lives in a rural state. Obama claimed to be against same-sex marriage in 2008 because America wasn't ready for it. And so on. But Trump has taken sleaze to a new level, openly disputing well-documented facts. He must be defeated at all costs.
2
@Some Tired Old Liberal
We know that at least if we believe the polls 42% of Americans like and approve of trump's sleaze. We are a nation born as a result of anarchists, we embrace sleaze in politics, art, television, radio, movies and public discourse. We are a crude vulgar nation that follows the Kardashians, the "real Housewives of Whatever", gangsta rappers and bury our faces in smartphones (now there is an oxymoron) at social events. America needs a reset.
2
We may fudge the issue with length columns on possibilities, but doesn't Mr. Biden's record as a senator and vice-president speak a greater truth than the recent stance he has taken on so many issues, made, simply stated, to win the coming election?
His treated dismissively the testimony of Anita Hill in the Senate hearing on the confirmation of Clarence Hill as supreme court justice the 70's, of which he was chairman. and had a
terrible record on crime as a senator.
He supported 51 new categories on the death penalty and supported Clinton in his 1994 CrimesControl Act, responsible for the incarceration of hundreds of thousands of black people for
possession of cocaine.
He also supported credit card companies in their successful effort
to not allow bankruptcy in credit-card debt for students, and said not a word about the bank's role in the 'o8 crash, even allowing bank executives huge bonuses in that year.
5
Biden is the candidate of the Democratic fraidy-cats. Timid Democrats support Biden because they suffer from a sort of Stockholm syndrome. Since Reagan, the right has mercilessly mocked Democrats as unhinged liberals. Most Democrats have reacted in fear, trying to deny their liberalism and masquerade as moderates. The assumption is that America really is a centrist to conservative nation and therefore Democratic beliefs are anathema—so the "Democrat Party" must pretend to be something else, to disavow what it really stands for, and dutifully acknowledge that Republican positions are the true American ones.
The Republicans, meanwhile, proudly, even gleefully, embrace their right-wing fanatics, driving the country and its centre ever rightward. The Democrats keep timidly following along hoping the Republicans will eventually fall off a cliff leaving the Democrats merely teetering on the brink.
The result is the Democrats look weak, foolish, and insincere; the Republicans strong, bold, and principled. The Republicans are cask strength whisky. The Democrats just a watered down Republican-lite.
Those who support Biden are stuck in the abusive relationship. They keep hoping that if only they don't make much noise, McConnell and Trump will stop beating them. What's that saying about insanity?
Fortunately, there are bolder Democrats who aren't embarrassed to stand forcefully for liberal positions when the country desperately needs what liberalism offers. Let's hope they win.
13
I care about one thing: beating Trump with someone who has a brain, a heart and a soul. Someone who knows "true north" and can remind us of America's values, ethics and morals.
18
The only way to beat Joe is to let Joe be Joe. And for 20 other Dems seeking the presidency to remain in the running longer than they should while participating in the time-honored practice of a circular firing squad. Joe has put his foot in his mouth so many time already he's given them plenty of ammunition.
3
What's never mentioned out loud is that democrats are sick of their leftwing. They are tired of its obsession with identity and of being coerced by the identity police. They want their party back.
And never underestimate the power of partisanship -- that is, voting for someone with the right letter (R or D) next to a politician's name. Obama's African-American supporters would vote for Biden even if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue.
Progressives may sink the Democratic Party because they will stay home if their guy/gal doesn't get the nomination. They'd rather lose than vote for someone they hate, which is pretty much anyone who isn't a diehard progressive at this point.
7
@AACNY
You might be sick of the Democrat's left wing. Real Democrats aren't.
6
Look at history Ross. Joe Biden always defeats himself. The strategy to beat Biden is simple, wait.
5
Denuclearization of Korean peninsula will lead to a Nobel prize for 45th and then nobody can stop him in 2020 Presidential election. That is the only way to beat Joe Biden.
1
Does Mr.Douthat really think Democrats think of this in the same way he does? I am not some Mayberry Machiavelli; nor am I some teenage snowflake. For that matter, I’m not some old retired person content to starve the next generations of resources. We’ll be fine as soon as republicans are sent packing to, you know, FEMA camps. Or are they ICE camps now? I’m sure we can figure out a way to revoke the citizenship of the entire Republican Party. I recommend you reconsider secession and move to Mississippi.
6
"If you elect me, nothing will change." Enough sad.
9
I can think of one simple way to take down Joe Biden: don't let him and his team get away with whitewashing RACISTS by calling them 'segregationists'. That's an old school term that Whites use to give respect and legitimacy to racists. It's high time to hammer that home to him and the entire country.
Since Joe Biden can't even use the proper term racist, he has no business running for President of this country. Period. Period. Period.
7
How to Beat Joe Biden. Easy. Just give him a mic.
6
We need a balanced candidate to win the general election. Joe may not be the perfect candidate. But his chance of beating the con man pathological liar is thousand time better than the other candidates. The so called progressives are actually the “digressives”. Their extreme positions may sound good to their own constituents, but will not help to win. The evil genius is a propaganda master and he will use those utopian worthless out of touch slogans to divide us. Go Biden- we need you for the sake of our great nation. Let America be American again.
2
Gee whiz Ross....how about YOU focus on YOUR Republicans, who have thrown our Nation, democracy and Constitution under the bus?!
How about YOU give some advice to the corrupt Mitch McConnell?! Leave the Democrats alone, we will figure it out without you!!
18
Ross should go to work for the Republican Party. All the other candidates (except Biden) are running for VP. But at Biden's age that could be a ticket to the oval office. Offending Biden could be costly. Better to suck up to him. Doubt that the "laundry man" (Trump) will ever get a second term.
1
A politician campaigning on his personal "brand"? Never seen that before. *clutches pearls*
4
I Ike Warren’s positions on many Issues. Mayor Pete is a. Composed, impressive speaker, but things in South Benddon’tlook so Composed rrighnow. BIDDEN IS THE INE WHO CAN CHERRY-pick the best f theextremeleft andpackage itt in a moderate left guy who knows how to get things done. Guaranteed job income for people who don’t want a job? Pleeze!
1
Is this an analysis? or what?
Could Biden be a smoldering LBJ
1
@CathyK
No beagles have been harmed in this campaign, thus far.
1
Giving unsolicited advice to the Democrats once again, Ross? When will you look inside your own wretched house, with a congenital liar at the helm and a group of fawning hypocrites manning the barricades? I guess if you see past your church condoning the molestation of children you can accept Trump lies all the more easily. You have nothing to offer the intellectual Times reader. Your prose is lame, your arguments all straw men, and your point of view backwards, patriarchal, and out of touch with reality. Under-informed GOP flag-savers might note on your rotting bait, but it won't fly with progressives.
12
"...Appeased with promises." The same game plan Dems. have pushed upon their Left for 40yrs. now.
Oohh...looky!
A baited hook~! Complete with line and sinker~! Mmm!!!
How can I go wrong??!!
Lol...yeah, we believe ya.
You can keep your nose pins, we've had our own custom fitted by now.
But you might want a pair for yourself this time.
Just get Trump out of office.
2
More social programs, redistribution of wealth and income, “the rich,” reparations, diversity, political correctness, all repeated over and over by the “progressives,” who expect a mesmerized population to march with them to the promised land of “equality.” It is a veritable crock, and the left can cry “racism” until the methane-emiting cows come home. Speaking of which, old Joe Biden should be put out to pasture, too.
3
“...it’s possible to discern a certain method, a general plan for how the candidate hopes to run for president: by changing positions on issues when he needs to, but without betraying his own amour-propre, his sense of what being Joe Biden is supposed to mean...
Uuuh, hate to be the one to have to tell you this, NYT – what with that lead-in pic...
But, I think – just think, now, not know or anything like that – Uncle J may have plagiarized this game plan from Kirsten...
Again – speculating – his plan A was to go with Pete’s approach...
But then he learned he’d have to learn six more languages...
And get English down better than at present...
.....
I think of a Biden presidency the way some atheists think of God...
Don’t believe it for a minute – but look for ways to hedge my bets, just in case...
If I could get a reprint of this lead-in pic in about – say – 20x20, will be sure to hang it over the fireplace...
Had Trump’s visage up there – but then the long-hanging tie touched a couple of the burning logs below...
Douthat wants a Republican in the White House. Full stop. He doesn't particularly like Trump, but dollars to doughnuts he votes for him (probably again) because Trump will put religious extremists on the federal courts to drag America closer and closer to the (preferably medieval Catholic) Christian theocracy Pope-Wannabe Douthat wants.
Why should any Democrat care a fig what Douthat thinks?
Let those of us, Democrats, Republicans, Independents, whatevers, who believe Donald Trump is a disgrace and an appallingly ignorant, dangerous, narcissistic bloviating grifter, unite around WHOMEVER is the Democratic nominee. She or he will be exponentially better than the alternative.
Ignore Douthat and his ilk. Let them salivate for Gideon in solitude.
6
Really, the way to beat Biden is to put him under slight pressure, and then tape him yapping in response. Or really, you could demand the results of his IQ test...
1
Oh give me a break! strategizing how a candidate can play the game! imagining him or her leaping here, twirling there, saying yes or maybe to that, combing their hair in a different way.
What about a candidate just stating their policies and sticking with them and being (God forbid) Honest. Let them sink or swim by what they plan to actually do if elected huh?
I know it seems an oxymoron for a candidate to just state their case and leave the voters to decide, but it would be a lot cheaper than having all those advisors and what not trying to craft an image which will appeal to everyone. And it ain't the truth either.
Look how well Hillary did with her fancy talking points. And as I always say, wouldn't it be nice not to have to listen to candidates who fully intend to take corporate donations and will not be able to fulfill their carefully crafted promises to the voters. Guess who I am supporting, yes the most demonized one. Rich people who donate hate honest politicians, hate them.
1
Almost unmentioned by Ross is Biden's greatest weakness, his propensity for sticking his foot in his mouth. This is not matter of if, but when. Uncle Joes's gaffes always happen sooner or later. We knew Hillary, for all her achievements, was not a natural pol and turned a lot of people off. This made the difference in the end. Let us not go down the garden path with this off-the-cuff gaffer, who will likely throw it away on the final weekend before the election with another dumb remark. Destiny is written in the personality.
1
@Charles B Z
It seems we can add a new syndrome to the quiver of mental maladies Dems are accused of demonstrating. Let's call it "The Goldilocks Myth". Hillary was too phoney, Biden's too truthy, and nobody's just right for the fractured grab bag of single issue voters. If we keep searching for Mr./Ms. Right, we could end up MIA on Jan. 20, 2020. Or learn to do just like Joe - accept reality and imperfection, even in ourselves. Work with it.
1
Douthat is astute here about the political mechanics. But it may be more than enough for many voters that Biden doesn't work a room by punching everyone in the mouth.
@David
The bar for Biden is very low. In fact, it's as low as it was for Trump. They're going to do what a lot of Trump supporters did, but in their minds it will be noble and not ignorant.
1
Why should the Democrats listen to a die hard Republican that mostly care about furthering his extremists religion goals at any cost including keeping Trump in the White House?
4
What was the purpose of this column, other than to perpetuate the asinine media storyline on Biden and generate hate for one of America's great public servants and statesmen?
I just don't understand ...
4
The only constant about Joe Biden is that his soul is for sale to the highest bidder.
1
How about a story headlined, “How to Beat Trump”? That’s what any sane Democrat should care about, and what the party needs to do. That’s Biden’s big appeal, because he’s made that the basis of his platform.
3
Let's see, there are no conditions or circumstances causing the Democratic constituency to go to the left.
There is no massive student debt, skyrocketing costs of housing, catastrophic medical bills, lack of any job security whatsoever.
It is all just those bad old liberal orthodoxies about being offended by racist or feminist tropes that's causing it. Smart alecks. Joe will show them. He'll charm the country away from Trump.
1
Biden is demonstrating how effectively Wall St. Democratic fat cats use their wholly owned subsidiary, the black political establishment, to block economic progressivism in America. The only way these oligarchs could keep Sanders from beating Hillary in 2016 was by mobilizing black churchgoers to vote in lockstep for Hillary and her sponsor Goldman. (Bernie, of course, won the white primary vote, and was much more popular with Rust Belt whites than Trump to boot.) Now Wall St. had such firm control over black voters that they’ve conned them into supporting Uncle Joe over two black candidates. Southern black women are actually overwhelmingly favoring an old white man over a young black woman, making these voters traitors not just to their race, but even to their gender! Black sisterhood ain’t so powerful once Wall St. sends these women their marching orders. They are as willing to betray fundamental values for Wall St.as Evangelicals are when they betray all they stand for, except opposition to abortion, to back the most anti-Christian figure in American political history, just because the fat cat Republicans have ordered them to. Let’s hope that Biden’s sleepy senility and sheer political haplessness will, however, doom the best-laid plans of neoliberal Democratic fat cats this year as effectively as low-energy Jeb doomed those of Republican “rain-makers” in 2016.
2
Well unfortunately this black citizen does not identify with any candidate from California who espouses open borders, imprisoning black parents because their kid missed school just because she can do so.
Seth Molten, a true JFK Democrat, is my chosen Democratic candidate, or Trump will be re elected.
1
The photo says it all.
A broken down relic from another age.
Mumbling bumbling stumbling
He’s hollowed out. Everyone can see it.
Joe should go home an let someone take care of him.
Cancel the 2020 elections, the pundits and pollsters have declared a winner. The racist sexist Biden will be the next President to replace Clinton, the polls choice in 2016.
Thanks for the advice, Brother Douthat. And how many pundits can dance on the head of a pin ???
Sad.
1
Ross Douthat offering advice on how a Democrat could defeat Joe Biden? Anyone really want to take this advice seriously?
5
Why is an overtly conservative columnist writing a column on "[h]ow to [b]eat Joe Biden?" Biden is the most conservative of Democratic contenders.
Bret's support of Biden makes more sense.
As for "shambolic," Bret beat you to it.
2
I don't follow Doutthat, if at all, but I had to read this column twice to decide if it was more tongue in cheek than serious. After my second reading, I concluded that the author must have some kind of Biden demon bouncing around in his head.
More advice from right wingers. Thanks, no thanks. Let's have a primary, please, and good luck with yours.
3
You've overcomplicated things. Biden's problems are two: white and old. The only two acceptable prejudices remaining.
4
@Frunobulax
Biden has African-American support. Will progressives start going after African-Americans who support him?
1
Yet again, one of the Times's conservative columnists offers unsolicited advice to the Democratic Party. Yesterday it was Bret Stephens, defending Biden's impolitic statements about Sens. Eastland and Stennis. Will someone at the Times please explain why these conservatives are sooooooo worried about the future of the Democratic Party? Their concern sounds phony to me.
4
Like a flag in a hurricane o’l Joe Biden is a blow’in in the wind. He keeps trying to adapt himself to what he perceives the more liberal Dems want and in the process shows he is weak on commitment to his previously stated core beliefs. In do doing he undermines his own credibility for all voters.
2
Why is conservative Ross Douthat engagingly is this very speculative speculation?
Does Ross secretly want Trump to win?
I say stay in your own corner , Ross, we really don't need you in ours. We plenty better qualified Democratic strategists. Please stick to speaking conservatism.
1
We need a women who grew up in a middle class family, is intellectually bright, pays attention to detail, has had a successful career, is steady and not afraid to say capitalism needs consraints, can articulate what she plans on doing and wears glasses.
We need a women who is ready ro implemented Controlled Capitalism. After all, if it is not harrassed the result is free markets are not so free. ... https://lstrn.us/2CORkXF
They aren't "gaffes" if you actually believe the terrible things you say, Joe.
Whacha talkin' 'bout, Ross? Biden is done. He just doesn't get it because he is an old white man.
Instead make sure you point your ire on the women running - Warren/Harris/Klobuchar. Make sure you paint them as being "unelectable" or some such nonsense. I love that Warren comes in and say 1st thing: "I had my dream job already, and it was being a teacher". That is who we need to lead, not some con-man billionaire and his criminal cronies.
1
Do we want to beat Biden?
Given that we do not have legitimate elections in this country anymore and that the "overwhelming coalition" behind Biden are the corporate-DNC-media kingmakers, it seems only a massive rejection in the primaries can stop him. A Biden candidacy, as with Clinton in 2016, will leave us where we are today because, as author and historian Paul Street laments, there are no democratic adults in the room --
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/there-are-no-democratic-adults-in-the-room
1
Biden’s lead won’t last. Not because of any of the campaign tactics Douthat lists here. Just because Biden is not a very good candidate, not for the Democratic nomination in 2019. At this point in 2007, the Republican front-runner, with a huge lead in the polls and in fund-raising, was Rudy Giuliani. Let that sink in. Giuliani, the bumbler who only takes his foot out of his mouth to say something stupid. The erstwhile lieutenant, loyal but not terribly smart. Sound like somebody you know? Biden, maybe? A year from now, folks like Douthat will be reminiscing in columns about Biden’s once-upon-a-time lead in the campaign, and wondering where it all went. Enjoy Joe while you can...
131
There are more thrilling candidates out there than Biden, but for those woke people who want to dismantle his candidacy because he fails their purity test, I would caution that eliminating any viable candidate capable of easily defeating Trump is a serious mistake. If checking all the boxes is so important that anyone falling short is to be taken out with trash, don't be surprised that they have sentenced the country to awaken to four more years of Donald Trump.
3
More un-trustable advice to Democrats from a Republican.
We need honesty. The only coalition Biden has is Reagan Republicans, big money interests, the corporate news media and the barely attentive voters they are relentlessly trying to manipulate this early in the process.
Spin is one form of fake news. For example, Biden has not repudiated anything. All he did was backtrack on the Hyde Amendment in insincere, mealy-mouthed fashion. That is not going to fly. Furthermore, this piece seems to suggest that political incorrectness is all that is really wrong with improper touching and sniffing women, or comradery with racists, or opposition to desegregation, or blind support for bogus wars. The man has serious problems. He will beat himself. Biden is going down like the Titanic. For the Democratic Party and the nation, the best time for that to happen would be early in the primaries. If not, it will certainly happen in the fall of 2020 and that will truly be a disaster for the world, if not for oil companies, Wall Street, big Ag, big Pharma, private health insurers and all the other entrenched interests.
Those interests and moderate Republicans need to make a choice. Are they so afraid of progress and change and desperate to stop that change that they will align themselves behind the nightmarish, misogynist, racist, pathological liar who won in 2016 with the help of Russia?
Joe Biden is the one to beat Trump and the Dems abandon him at their peril. If Joe doesn't get the nod, then one of the women in waiting will. From what I have seen, they all support positions that are hot button for conservatives; pro-lifers in particular.
What the Dems need is a candidate who will mollify the mollify-able fringes of the Trump camp (the base is adamant) and if not get them to vote Democrat, at least tempt them to stay home on election day.
Lastly and leastly, the Dems should think the unthinkable; that is, think beyond the election about how to govern in a post-Trumpian America, which even with a Dem in the White House, will at that point in time be filled with millions of very sore losers on the right. If the then President pushes her progressive agenda too hard, the best thing that could happen to the country just might be nothing.
65
@Hugo Furst
"Hot-button" conservatives are going to vote for Trump no matter what. Catering to them would be a fool's errand for any Democratic candidate.
And a Democratic President's agenda doesn't have to be in least bit progressive for "sore losers on the right" to insist on bringing the country to a standstill. President Obama's Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland, who was illegally denied the customary advise-and-consent hearing, was a right-of-center moderate.
The needle will never be moved back to the center by continuing to appease the extreme right.
32
@Hugo Furst
No need to mollify. Enough of that, it’s what’s taking us backwards. Motivate the majority of this country who support common sense gun control, freedom to choose, and who are concerned about climate change. And the rule of law and integrity. This is the MAJORITY.
34
@Hugo Furst
If Americans want to elect an ignorant racist, liar and thief as president instead of a decent progressive, I am not responsible for that. It is NOT my responsibility to accommodate their immorality, cajole their hatefulness into decency and appease their ignorance. It IS my responsibility to pick a candidate who will fight for poor, working and middle class families. One who will fight for women, people of color and minorities of every stripe.
Joe Biden is not that candidate. He is the past. Biden is the class of professional pols who got us to this failing place in our history. I watched him conduct the Clarence Thomas hearings 30 years ago--he couldn't run a bipartisan hearing 3 decades ago! He's going to be bipartisan in 2020?
Worse still Biden is in bed with big banks, Wall Street and corporate America. He is 3/4 of a century old and hasn't had an original idea in 50 years. He is the mouthpiece of lobbyists and an opponent of progressivism (which he calls socialism).
I sincerely hope you're right that "one of the women"--Warren or Harris is the party nominee. Both have the brains of HRC but none of the baggage. If the nod goes to Warren, pick Booker or Castro as VP. If Harris, pick Buttigieg to balance the top of the ticket.
But let's stop pandering to a base of voters that despise us and our values. Let's inspire millennials, hispanics, african-americans , women and lgbtq's to do what they didn't do in 2016--VOTE!
28
Elizabeth Warren and this moment reminds me of how Teddy Roosevelt got to be President. The party was terrified of him because he was very popular and had radical (for those days) ideas. They made him Vice-President to McKinley to effectively end his political career. The rest is history as McKinley was assassinated and TR took office and started large reforms that wouldn't have happened had that not occurred. Obviously not a desired formula but politics is hardly predictable. Politicians are better off standing up for their own beliefs and letting the chips fall where they may rather than triangulate and obfuscate and manipulate voters who always have a keen sense to these things. A leader, to defeat Trump, has to let it all out just like Trump did. You can't be mousy and tip toe around. If the people reject you as a result fine but it makes for a more honest politics.
Ross, why is it so hard for you to grasp that respecting the ethical considerations of others about abortions - that forcing women to bear children they aren't prepared for - either emotionally, physically or economically - is a greater evil than allowing them to have an abortion - is NOT an abandonment of one's own principles?
Isn't it clear that the stance of the Catholic Church - that abortion is wrong - EVEN when the life of the mother is clearly endangered, EVEN when the child might only live a few hours after birth, EVEN when the circumstances into which this child might be born are grim - is based on theology, which is different than morality?
I assume you would never insist on abolishing divorce, because it is against your theology, or suggest that people who want to abolish the priesthood in Catholicism, or are accepting of homosexuality are immoral, but for some reason, on the issue of abortion, your belief that Catholics are entitled to impose their definition of when life begins on others.
I personally know women who have died, or had severe medical consequences - organ failure, necessitating a transplant, from pregnancies that were WANTED. In certain areas of the world, pregnancy is still a leading cause of death for women. The slippery slope works both ways, as we see from laws attempting to prevent abortions for CHILDREN who were raped by family members.
Are you afraid a willingness to compromise on abortion will lead to an abandonment of your faith?
3
For "voters who are nostalgic for the days of dealmaking" read voters who value effective government over gridlock.
6
Thanks for the advice Douthat. It smells of the Fox in the Chicken coop. Push the Dems farther left and leave the middle exposed. Trump wins. So Medicare for all becomes Medicare for no one. The ultra left might hope that a second term of Trump will pave the way to pick up the ashes after the house burns down. It is more likely it will open the door for Trump to grab power for a lifetime appointment that only a replay of the French Revolution will be able to dislodge. If you doubt that is his ambition, listen to his words, they are no joke. So thanks but no thanks Douthat, we must seize the middle and hold. Biden can do that.
6
@bahcom
Standard Leftist rejoinder to Douthat: we are victims.
If the Left does not curb its zeal, we will have nothing but Trump candidates from here to 2100.
1
There will not be a "never Joe" campaign within the Democratic Party ranks. There will be a lot of people who prefer a different candidate, but the single most important issues is to dump Trump in 2020. I anticipate Democrats and others whose primary goal is to rid the country of the current President, will refrain from the failed logic applied against Hillary in 2016, and support the nominee irrespective of who it may be.
9
I was talking recently with my sister, a middle-aged lawyer, a Democrat living on the East Coast and reads the New York Times. She had not heard about the United Nations report that came out last Fall saying we had about a decade to do something of substance to address Climate Change. Nor had she heard about the UN report on a million species that are at serious risk for extinction.
She knew about Prince Harry's and Meghan Markle's new baby. And the latest Springsteen album.
We need to all wake-up. The Climate Crisis is our number one issue.
Joe Biden says he is willing to be a moderate when it comes to addressing Climate Change.
We need bold and swift action, not moderation. We need leadership. Attention must be paid. Ten years, that's all we have to make our actions count.
12
@Sio
Well said. I don’t care a whit about the royal baby, but most people are still into the world they know. I have a sense it’s going to turn into something completely unknown and probably something we can’t cope with but we have to try, and the time to face it is NOW.
4
We don’t need to beat Joe Biden. He is the only democrat who can unite this country. The rest of the field will bring yet more divisiveness. The California candidates, and Corey Booker will be easily beaten by Trump. Eventually, the feel good stories Elizabeth Warren will run out Eventually someone will analyze the real costs of her “free” programs. The mayor of South Bend has no chance. Joe Biden can actually accomplish a great many programs our Country needs. Joe Biden can make progress on health care reform, environmental reform, and can improve our standing on the World stage.
6
What Democrats need to do is to nominate the most charismatic of their candidates. Any Democrat would do more for the ordinary voter than Trump and all the Republicans put together.
But, in order to get the WH and the Senate we need a candidate who can energize the population and provide a positive vision for the future.
4
Frankly, I don't want to see Joe beat. He has decades of experience, unlike the current occupier of the White House, or any of his Democratic rivals. With experience comes knowledge and relationships to build a coalition of able politicians and experts to lead this Country forward. He may say things from time to time perhaps in an inarticulate way, however, having heard him speak in person and private over the last two decades, he's well intentioned. At this point in time, he is the only Democrat running for the Presidency who can beat Trump.
8
Lincoln's "team of rivals" approach might be better in 2020 than any kind of Democratic attempt to "fracture or overwhelm" each other's coalitions. There are a number of strong candidates, each with much to offer. Whoever wins the nomination: take your rivals into your administration and mine their strengths! The environment, the economy, the public schools, public housing, diplomatic corps, defense dept., FBI, CIA, etc., need these strong Democrats. If, from the beginning of this campaign, these folks could imagine this as an eventual collaborative, cooperative enterprise, the Democrats might have a chance to win and to make a real change.
5
I'm finding the subhead on this commentary, "Can his rivals fracture or overwhelm his coalition," a little frightening if it's meant to apply to Democrats, rather than Trump. Democrats shouldn't be aiming to break anything on the Democratic side without being able to guarantee that there's a replacement for what's lost and it's stronger.
3
Never Trump “trump’s” never Biden. The politically correct and the righteous in their liberalism need to remember that we want a Democrat in the White House in 2020! The sniping among Democrats reinforces the narrative that Democrats cannot organize, that they prefer a sound bite to sound policy.There are many excellent Democratic candidates with good ideas-let’s hear from them and applaud instead of skirmishes and squabbles.The strength of ideas will win the campaign - not the peripheral noise of candidate squabbles.
6
It’s unfortunate that Democrats have become the Republican Party and the Republicans have become the know nothing religious/finance political party, the Plutocrat Party run by Fox with contributions from the Douthat-Stephens cult.
Biden is the compromising past afraid of delivering what people need and want, health care, education for their children and a decent renumeration for work done.
The rest is class manipulation. Douthat knows this and chooses to be a provocateur rather than contributing to sensible progress.
3
Political pundits analyze, sometimes overly. Journalists point out the data and can express the fact based opinions of theirs. Good columnists, in addition, have their professional instincts. Casual readers say anything. I’m In the fourth category. The very recent incident about Iran appears to break down the Republican party’s view towards the 2020 presidential. How would Democrats seize this as an opportunity? I noticed Douthat did not mention Kamala Harris here. If she were in, her name might have been in the first blacket with Cory Booker, though I’m not certain about this. Warren and Harris may be the strongest antidotes against Mr. Trump, because Mr. Trump in fact, in my view, admires charismatic women with power. Concealing this bent of his might be for political reasons as a twisted strategic pressure from the inside party. Brsides, because he holds prejudices against the appearances, Mrs. Clinton failed to appeal over Mr. Trump, for hers was too representatively Boomerish, that is my guess. I always thought Baden’s win would depend on his fight against the Obama legacy from which he needs to step out forwards. Here, the positive and negative turn around like each other’s chaser. I liked Booker because he walked around the city to check the conditions of manholes by himself. That was, though, some time ago. Buttgieg likes Gangs in New York and Godfather and the dating apps, and his base is South Bend. To me, Sanders got into something on the edge.
The goal isn’t to beat Biden. The goal is to beat Trump.
How we get there, I honestly don’t care. I would vote for any of the Democrats running over Trump.
8
Ever since I traded my French citizenship for the one of this — my wonderful — adoptive country, I have voted Democrat. But, as we prepare to lose another Presidential election next year, may I remind my progressive Democratic friends that Robespierre was a progressive?
1
It’s the later argument. It’s the field against Joe Biden. And if whoever emerges from the field, if it’s because they are in contrast to Biden then that someone else has a shot.
However in the case of the GOP of 2016, it didn’t work. And also it seems the preference of voters right now, including Dems, is that they want someone who can actually lead, unite and get things done.
1
Let’s face it: the Democrats are in the hands of out-of-control “progressives”, for whom Biden might as well be a Republican. They should run a ticket of Warren and Cuomo, in any order, and be done with it. They will win California and New York, maybe Massachusetts too. The rest of the country will re-elect Trump because the “progressive” agenda is too radical, too costly and frankly, frightening.
4
@Larry
Yes, progressives are always the last to know. They took the wrong messages away from the last election and even the midterms, where they believe it was a "landslide" for progressivism. It was no such thing. Nor did Hillary lose because she wasn't progressive enough.
And when reality hits back hard, as it often does, as it did when Obama got his shellacking in that midterm over Obamacare, they double down. They still believe the problem in that midterm was that he didn't promote Obamacare enough.
Even democrats don't favor the big changes being pushed by Warren and Biden. As a Democratic presidential candidate, when you've lost democratic voters, you are in trouble.
2
I'm a Warren supporter. But if we must have a white moderate male, let it be Sen Bennet.
As someone commented recently, with Democrats like Biden, who needs Republicans.
So refreshing to see a moderate, eager to compromise, non-race baiting presidential candidate who happened to serve as our great first African American President's Vice.
As a wealthy white male voter from the suburbs of Pennsylvania, Biden has my vote. If the Dems want to be cute and nominate a candidate who supports reparations, I have no problem pulling the lever for Donnie and turning my state red.
4
Please think two or maybe even three times about what you are saying...as the angry one in the White House prepares to set up all of us for Armageddon!
this doesn't make any sense, to vote for DT because the Democrats nominate someone with a position which requires the Congress and probably the SC to agree with, i.e., the likelihood of any significant reparations, however much the president might want them is small. and compared to all the badness of DT ?
Every time Biden opens his mouth he loses 100k votes. He has 2 choices. 1. Stay away from the spotlight --or hide--and limit his public appearances to the greatest extent possible. The problem with doing this is that you can attack him for being old and hiding and having low energy or lacking self-confidence or self-assuredness to speak publicly. If he is scared to take punches from other Dems than how can we expect him to take punches from a bare-knuckle brawler like Trump--that will eat into his electability argument.
The alternative would be to go out into public as much as possible to show that he is not scared of a fight. However, this is exactly where his opponents and the left want him, because his support will only go downward and his support has almost no room to grow. If he goes in public, he will be critiqued because he looks old and because he is clearly one of the least intelligent Democrats who voters can choose from--the contrasts will be easy to make and he will be picked off that way. He has frayed his relationship with the left beyond saving and every time he speaks is an opportunity to show that he is not electable.
Biden may be the frontrunner in current polling, but he has almost no path to the presidency. No matter what choice he makes, he will be picked off relatively easily. Hillary Clinton was a much more formidable foe for the left than Joe Biden.
Warren is the real frontrunner.
Also, the NYT needs to investigate tom Steyer. He is evil!
2
Biden has been wrong on too many things in his long career: the bankruptcy law, which served corporate interests in his state, support for the Iraq war, mistakes in Iraq as VP and his chairmanship ot the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing of Clarence Thomas. He is also a phony, proclaiming himself as a union man. I have had a union card for 32 years and will admit that he has supported labor but his bankruptcy law was class warfare. His flip flop on the Hyde amendment which I took as pandering, and his lack of discretion in praising the the civility of segregationists are truly out of step with much of the Democratic base, not just the most liberal Democrats.
I will not support the self proclaimed democrat socialist for the nomination, but I will look carefully for a social democrat , AKA progressive, who has accomplished much for working people.
Biden is a decoy. trump can spend all his energy attacking Biden, but the real candidate hasn't emerged yet.
1
If Sanders dropped out, Warren would be the front runner immediately.
3
In today's Times, two conservative Republican columnists devote their precious journalistic real estate to a Democratic competitor for the presidential nomination.
Ross Douthat offers a friendly analysis of Biden's campaign, and Bret Stephens offers a fierce defense of Biden's racial tone-deafness (combined, unsurprisingly, with an attack on one of Biden's black rivals).
I'm not sure why conservative Republican columnists spend so much time writing about Democratic pols, but allow me to alert Democratic readers to what they should know in their bones:
No conservative Republican columnist-- no matter how fluent, no matter how artful, no matter how (ostensibly) opposed to Donald Trump--ever wishes a Democrat well--unless he is reading that Democrat's eulogy.
If you buy what Douthat & Stephens are selling, you are buying fool's gold.
18
To me, a segregationist is not a person holding a hateful view. A segregationist is more like a domestic violence offender. Or a person who sponsors terrorism. They weren't just explaining their "views" to people who broke the color line in the South. That system was enforced by brute violence meant to terrorize the black population. It's like bragging about bargaining with terrorists.
I would absolutely vote for Biden if he's the nominee. But he really is the Irish uncle from the past. We haven't gotten rid of Jim Crow yet, if you read Michelle's Alexander. The 1994 Crime Bill just transferred it into our criminal justice policy, without even mentioning the word "black."
The country will recover from this, but Biden isn't going to lead us through that, POTUS or not.
1
Anti Biden democrats, you want to know how to beat Biden and win all three branches in 2020?
Don't nominate an identity obsessed, social engineering, I am not Trump and a woman and my anointment time is come, the era of the white man is over, east coast liberal, never met a war, Wall Street banker, trade agreement I did not like candidate like Hillary.
Nominate a moderate progressive like Biden that a majority of Americans are for and you will win.
Learn from history or be prepared to suffer the same disaster of re reelecting the ego maniac, demagogue Trump,
4
I thought, maybe prayed, that someone in the Biden camp, a real smart political operative, would sit down with Joe and have a back to Jesus meeting---a three point strategy--the first being---stay on message---that being, I can beat Trump by just showing up; the second being, no more Irish grandfather meanderings, and third, look at number two. After this week, I am now buying into Bill Mahr's call for Oprah to enter the race.
1
God how people who love this painful status quo love this conversation.
The rest of us are bored to death.
If Biden doesn't like the corner he's in he can change it.
For instance he can say:
"I am in the corner which addresses racial injustice!
Look at me. I am addressing income inequality!"
He could say:
"Protest in the streets with me against an Iranian invasion!"
He could, tomorrow.
Joe Biden can prove himself by doing something extraordinary any time he wants.
He could be out there protesting the no soap no toothpaste concentration camps, yes he could.
He'd get so much attention nobody would remember what this column was about.
Why do we pretend our candidates have no options?
I'm not standing in his way.
6
Ross, you are a smart guy. Your column is a defacto endorsement of Trump.
Your endorsement further implies a lack of concern over climate change, LGTBQ issues, geopolitical policy, monitory policy, education, energy, science, honesty... the list goes on.
Is saving the Catholic Church and abortion worth abandoning our country? The earth?
6
You know my Dad used to say, "Joey, it's not what you tell people, it's what you can get them to believe."
I don't know if Biden Senior said that, but, isn't that at the heart of every politician's message?
Biden is the perfect swing voter candidate. The problem is swing voters are a vanishing breed. Democrats should select someone that like as much they they hate Donald Trump.
Here’s three easy ways to make an assessment of a candidate’s viability for President.
One: they can speak in full sentences. Two: they are morally conscious. Three: they can unite people. In this case, the Democratic Party.
Some auxiliary considerations: They don’t lie. They haven’t broken most of the Ten Commandments. They will free the current hostages, Americans, and defeat the largest terrorist group in America, known as the Republican Senate.
It’s a start.
1
If the Democrats nominate another corporate puppet like Biden, they will be slaughtered. Interesting how Douthat has "disappeared" Senator Sanders, Biden's nearest competitor. . . . During the debates, the moderate (i.e., corporate) candidates will gang up on the one Socialist. They will brand his proposed, moderate, long overdue, social reforms as "extremist." But what will they do if the rank and file Democrats want these measures? Capitalist Liberals are helpless against Trump. Only Socialism can defeat Fascism.
3
I have detected a change in some politicians and President Trump might be the Godfather of the change.
When Trump says or does something that would take a normal politician off the stage, he ignores the response. Or, says the other party is wrong. But, he doesn't dwell on it.
Fast forward to earlier this year. Gov. Northam has a two-fer picture in his med school year book. He immediately apologizes for it. The problem was, of the 2 characters, neither can be confirmed to be Northam. So, Northam shut up. He ignored the calls to resign. He turned off the ringer on his phone. Then, the Lt. Gov and Virginia AG were accused of improprieties. The LT. Govenor's were the more serious allegations, but, he did not resign.
Biden is slightly different. Joe's like a 6 year old kid in the back yard. Sometimes noisy, a little rambunctious, but, if the fence holds, he's not a problem in the neighborhood. Joe does not mean anybody any harm, but, sometimes his inner voice comes off mute. "Give me a break."
Joe's problem is his energy level. He shows up for a few hours, than it's off to a private fund raiser, where the tempo is more in line with a retirement center. Bernie, Kamala and Warren must be mainlining Rockstar and Monster drinks, because they are way to hyper. Hillary went low and slow, Joe looks like he filed the same flight plan.
The implied claim here that Biden, unlike the competition, isn't an "idealogist" strikes an odd sour note: Biden's is the oldest and most inflexible orthodoxy going ("never, ever", in Hillary's famous phrase), which nearly put the Democratic party into an early grave, even when the national opposition is the likes of Trump or the know-nothing G.W. Bush.
There's a name for it: "neoliberalism". Or "Wall Street Democrat" in cruder language. These are the seekers of "Grand Bargains", which is why Biden's kumbaya talk is so frightening.
And it's strongest support is to be found in this newspaper: it's two acknowledged right-wing columnists, along with the center-right social liberals and the free trade flat earthers, and the reporters who accept as a matter of course the "Washington consensus" -- entitlements must be cut, anything called "free trade" must be good, the deficit is an existential threat, etc.
Meanwhile, you have a woman with real policy proposals, who actually knows what she's talking about and describes herself as a "capitalist to the bone".
You'd think she'd be as welcome as the sun. But you'd be wrong: she's prepared to challenge the power of money to buy public policy.
What's a principled conservative to do, faced with actual principle? And where can the center-right Democrats run?
3
My Biden fave friends tell me that he has 31 % and is ahead. My feeling is that the other 69 % will not have Biden as their second, third or tenth choice which will make it hard for him to get to 51 %.
2
".. beat Joe Biden?"
Psst. Stop using that word, b.e.a.t, around Joe.
The man's already on edge, that he might wander off to the back of the gym and find Trump there waiting for him.
1
If he runs on his record and skill in debates I don't think we need to worry about Joe Biden:
1991 As Chairman, allowed fellow members of the Senate Judiciary Committee to attacked Anita Hill. (So we got Clarence Thomas.)
1994 Wrote the disastrous Crime Bill. (Hello prison industrial complex.)
1995 Wrote the Omnibus Counter-terrorism Act (became Patriot Act).
1996 Voted Against Gay Marriage. (Real leadership there.)
1999 Repealed Glass Steagall. (World financial crisis.)
2001 Voted for the Patriot Act. (Big Brother is watching you.)
2002 Voted for Iraq War. (Yeah but it's ok, cuz his son served.)
2005 Voted to end bankruptcy protection for students. (Endless debt builds character.)
2018 Presents G.W. Bush with Liberty Medal. (Finally gets the big stuff right.)
4
@CK
A marvelous compilation. How can anyone read this and even consider the man?
What hasn't changed, except for dates and names, is the same boring, rote MSM analysis.
Change the date to 2016 and the name to Trump and this (yawn) column could still stand.
BTW, I hope liberals can remember that all the way up to Bill Clinton, Democrats were still working with southern segregationists, like Jesse Helms and Strom Thurmond, except now they had an "R" after their name.
2
What is the purpose of this piece, Mr. Douthat? Do you really want to pave the way for four more years of Donald Trump?
2
@Steel Magnolia
Read the compilation of facts on the article just above yours and tell me if you still want to vote for him.
1
It is astonishing that Trump can be egregiously offensive (Access Hollywood gaffe). politically incoherent, grossly dissembling of facts & the truth- yet revered for never backing down, apologizing or allowing any criticism to bother him. Any critic is a partisan hack or Trump-hater. Every challenge is a hoax, fake or rude.
He slithers around even obvious missteps, denies the video evidence of statements he made in public and spins everything to enhance himself. All opposition draws macho retaliations.This defiant bold posturing has won him a cult, admiring of his apparent strength & fearlessness.
Biden may need to be defiant, evade apologies and punch back or he will sink in the quicksand of the Trump smearmeister mudslingers.
2
Thanks for reminding me to make another donation to the Biden campaign.
3
Voters might remember, other candidates might bring up;
>As Chairman of Foreign Relations Committee did not call up for testimony Scott Ritter who had found no WMD’s in Iraq just before the Iraq War
>Voted for the Iraq War
> Failed to call witness’ that supported Anita Hills testimony
>voted in favor of one of the most ruthlessly anti-worker bills in modern legislative history, the 2005 Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act, depriving millions of the protections provided by Chapter 7 bankruptcy.
> Championed 1994 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act, which gave us an era of mass incarceration,
mostly blacks.
>1999 voted to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act which separated commercial and investment banking, paving the way for the financial crisis
>Corporate centrist Democrat, who looks after his constituents - the Banks and Wall Street (Comcast and Walmart)
1
One of the things that is consistently seen in columnists and even in politicians (both Black and White) is the under-estimation of Black intelligence and pragmatism
As a person of color, I can tell you that many in my community are not shocked that politicians work with other politicians who are unsavory or racists.
We wouldn't even be shocked if it were revealed that many Democratic or Republican politicians held negative beliefs about the Black community.
Blacks overwhelmingly supported FDR, JFK, LBJ or Clinton not because they thought those politicians loved Blacks or were not racists.
BUT rather, they were supported because those politicians were the LEAST LIKELY to create policies that would harm the Black community.
Minority voters are concerned about voting for someone who will help or at least do no harm. This pragmatism is why the majority of Blacks in VA refused to call for Gov Northam's resignation.
The only goal is finding someone who has the best shot at defeating a President who thinks White nationalists/Neo-Nazis are "fine people", who would still execute minority men (central park five) despite exonerating evidence and who has nominated judges who think Brown versus Board of Education is not settled law
So no....... Biden's comments about working with old school segregationists will not be the issue......and it won't fracture his coalition
2
Ugh. This analysis of political tactics—first “play,” second “play,” and so on—appears sophisticated, worldly, knowing, but it’s not. I’m sick of it already, and the campaign has hardly begun. Isn’t this incessant turning of politics into a spectator sport a big chunk of our political dysfunction? Should we spend our precious time listening to pundits like Douthat debate the fine points of political thrust and parry? We need writers with as powerful a platform as the Times to serve our real interest in substantive discussion. especially after Trump has so poisoned our political discourse. Please Mr. Douthat; cut to the chase, stick to the main game, debate policy.
2
A pretty condescending op-ed on Biden, clearly the most qualified and most electable candidate for the Democrats. If anyone thinks a Republican turned socialist who lied about her heritage is the hope of the Democratic party against Donald Trump, you will sorely disappointed. Bribing the electorate with free everything doesn't work on the majority. We know who ultimately will pay for her bribes, an no it's not the billionaires...
Trust me, Democrats are doing this with the whole party; stressed that his or her candidate is behind Biden, out come the outrage and pearl-clutching for anything said or done, large or truly small.
It happened with Al Gore, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and now Biden, the primary leader thus far.
Way to go, Democrats, way to blow the next election. You're ahead of time this cycle.
2
Joe Biden aroused a frenzied debate with his most recent, careless, linguistic excursion. In his effort to prove his bipartisan chops, he noted his successful liaisons with notorious segregationist Senators James Eastland of Mississippi and Herman Talmadge of Georgia. I suppose moderation and bipartisanship are arguably useful traits in a presidential candidate, but you’d think there would be less outrageous examples to cite. Proving you have a diverse group of friends does not require pulling a picture of yourself and Jeffrey Dahmer from your photo album.
Congratulations, Ross Douthat, on such a deply cynical, even Mephistophelian piece of work. In its lack of respect for everyone in its purview it may be worthy of even Trump himself. You profess to want to see him out of office, but here you are, aiming torpedoes at the undersides of all his possible opponents. Not that you should puff them. Certainly not. But in your representation of all of them as false selves, and nothing else, I think that you may betray your own nature, and the content of your own sense of calculation and how to do it. As a non-conservative, I have read you with interest for some time now, but your hypocrisy on show here has torpedoed my respect for your intellectual and moral integrity, and lifted the veil on just another player of a de-centered and amoral game. Bye now. Buy not.
2
Sorry Dems, I will note vote for Biden.
I'll vote for whatever yella' dog survives the (D)'s elimination process. It will not be Biden (crossed fingers). He might be a swell fella', but he's:
A. a doofus who will continue to trip over his own winkie as he has done his entire political career, until he talks his way out of contention.
B. A professional politician,
C. A Clintonian republicrat,
D. Waaay too old.
The ideal ticket to win against Trump:
Biden for President, Warren for VP!!
Centrist but consumer-citizen protection oriented ...
(Then, four years later, Warren runs for the Presidency ...).
1
In the one track minds of most democrats, the single most important criterion is who has the best chance to raise the most money and beat Trump. Joe Biden has positioned himself as the man to beat Trump. The rest does not seem to matter. The other thing going for him is he is establishment and for 8 years he was a heart beat away from the presidency of the USA. Biden was the wind beneath the wings of the Obama presidency and to many democrats not critical of Obama presidency was a hero and they see Obama and Biden as the Babsy twins of Washington.
Sorry Ross Douthat. Like it or not Joe Biden cannot be beaten in the Democratic party, no matter what. I personally think he should not have run but I think he now has the MoJoe (correct spelling Mojo). When Trump came down the stairs to announce he was running for the highest office of our land not having ever held an elected office, I thought he was joking but he proved me wrong. Trump meant business and he was dead serious. Biden is a joker but he is dead serious and would be very hard to beat in the Democratic primary. As Megan McCain rightly said recently some of Biden's rivals have no chance and to that I say they are just running for another time not 2020.
1
This article speaks to “flat or falling lines of all the other non-Biden candidates”. Yet nowhere does it mention the non existent lines of Bill de Blasio. Poll after pole shows him neither flat nor falling but non existent when pollsters come a calling.
Go Bill, Go.....somewhere, anywhere give your candidacy a pulse, a lifeline, a reason.
In this essay Douthat plants the term "religiously-informed."
As starkly contradictory a pair of words as ever conceived.
4
How to beat Joe Biden? Simple: be democrats.
Wow! The art of the back handed compliment, perfected. So if Biden is that bad, you are looking forward to another four years of Trump, Douthat? Why don't you tell us what it is about Trump that you find it so necessary to eviscerate oppostion, and I mean, vivisection going on in ths column. It it the prospect of a churches, like the Satanists in Alaska, taking an increasing role in government of all the people? Or perhaps it is how Trump is dealing with climate change - are you in love with that???Many people are, join the group..As had been said, with this sort of knives out writing, it behoves you to write about what you like about Trump, because that is what the alternative to any democrat will be.
If the Democrats form a circular firing squad, they deserve to lose. Pray that they don't because we don't deserve four more years of Trump. Neither does the world; and Trump invariably encourages odious leaders in Hungary, Poland, Brazil, Israel, the Philippines, Turkey, and on and on.
Joe Biden will defeat himself.
I think Biden must have slept through most of Obama's two terms. How else do you explain him persistently thinking the Republicans will deal reasonably and move legislation through to law?
1
The difference between Trump and any Democratic candidate, including Biden, is that the Left will not let go of anything Biden ever said or did, while Trump’s base will ignore or forgive everything he ever said or did.
In other words, the Far Right is committed to winning, while the Far Left is committed to the sanctity and purity of its ideas. If this doesn’t change, we will have four more years of Trump and at least two more SCOTUS judges appointed by him.
2
How to beat Biden, narrow the field quickly and no winner takes all primaries.
The Biden campaign so far has proven to be incompetent. Let us wait and see what happens in IA where real enthusiasm counts because you have to spend a few hours in an evening in a room of mostly strangers and publicly state your preference.
Both Douthat and Stephens continue to offer suggestions to a party that stands for everything they despise. They would be better off figuring out how to influence the Republican legislatures who pander to Trump and are making sure that youth, the educated, urban, minorities and women never vote Republican in their lifetimes.
I never liked secretary Clinton(for whatever reason) but I voted for her because she was qualified for the job. When I woke up, I was not happy Trump was president-elect but I was happy she lost, go figure. If we run a progressive against Pres. Trump we will win the popular vote but lost the electoral college again.
2
We don't need to beat Joe, just let him be Joe and let him be President. I don't think Warren cares about being President per se. She just wants her plans implemented. OMG don't we all. Great plans are something Joe hasn't got. Joe can smooze the panicy Republicans as they watch the blue tide washing over their saddle oxfords. This is a marriage made in heaven. Warren could be Joe's "Dick Cheney"; pardon the comparison. I don't care which one is at the top of the ticket. They can work together just like Bush/Cheney and Obama/Biden. The other Democratic candidates can go after Senate seats, which we need desperately for them to do. We've got a couple of senate seats in Kentucky that could benefit from two good Democrats.
147
Awesome analysis. It is a shame how the democrats are squandering the opportunity to retake the White House.
12
@Julie
If Biden is too old for party members, it won't exactly help to add Warren to the ticket, unless people are more willing to accept a second 70+ person because they want her enough. One advantage is that it would leave the field wide open as a successor without picking someone from the next gen as the VP.
8
I’m a millennial myself and I have to agree with Joe Biden’a approach. People say we shouldn’t negotiate with Republicans because they haven’t with us. Talking and negotiating with people we disagree with is something that we all do everyday. Why is it such a dirty word for politicians. If we keep this up we will be no different than the tea party.
If we don’t try to do it, how can we ever get anything done? The USA will never have 60 democratic senators. We could abolish the filibuster, but eventually we will lose again and the Republicans can just do the exact same thing. I’m fairly jaded about our political process. We have an obvious undemocratic senate, but that’s a product of the compromises we make at our nations founding.
Sure we could have 4-8 years where hopefully we take a majority in the senate, keep the house, take the presidency, abolish the filibuster on legislation, but then what? We will have the inevitable backlash where the Republicans will gain power again and they will roll back everything accomplished instantly.
Slow and steady isn’t exciting, it’s not sexy or inspiring, but that’s the system that we have. Joe Biden is the best chance for making that system work. Most people who aren’t online looking at news daily don’t care about these daily controversies and instead don’t want to lose sight of the most important goal, defeating Donald Trump in 2020.
174
@Stephen Prince
The problem with your argument, though it sounds good, is the Republicans don’t work with Democrats anymore. They have succeeded by being ruthless and cynical. I don’t know what the correct response is. But Obama ran on that very idea and as we saw, it absolutely did not work.
51
@Stephen Prince
I encourage you to study the Republican approach to Obama's first two years in office:
Their strategy was stonewall uncompromising resistance from the get-go. No compromise, even when Obama was willing to accepts big cuts to Medicaid and Medicare in a 'grand bargain' for healthcare legislation. Biden was there and saw this happen. Throughout his 8 years Obama faced nothing but intransigence from Republicans who were only interested in enacting legislation to enrich their donors and rile up their base. They didn't even support him when he asked for authorization for military action.
Biden is from a different era and totally clueless as to the current Republican willingness to compromise. Worse, he outright promised wealthy donors that his presidency would be a return to the pre-Trump status quo. Inspiring.
Republicans serve their donors first and foremost. What their donors want is what they will fight for. There will be no epiphany.
60
@Stephen Prince "Talking and negotiating with people we disagree with is something that we all do everyday."
Sure about that? How many comments have you read in this publication and others in which the commenters say that they have stopped talking with relatives? Labor hardly negotiates with management any more because the power of labor has been eviscerated. I can remember when major corporations were brought to their knees by the unity of their employees and vice versa. Amazing how situations like that brought the two sides together. How's it working out with individuals doing the negotiating on their own? Not so hot. That's why so many are so angry. Activist groups can plead for those always considered vulnerable, and senior citizens, who vote like crazy, are not going to let anyone take away their Social Security and Medicare benefits. But if you don't have a group of millions of voters whose lobbyists speak for you, you are out in the cold. Ain't so much negotiating goin' on. I fear people are losing the ability to do so. It's clear the president has, if he ever had it.
17
Ross,
As a Democrat there are many core issues that any candidate running for President I could accept. However, there are far too many positions of the ascendant hard and strident left, which many of us cannot accept as feasible given where we are now, and who we are as a country. These people like Sanders and Booker are the polar opposite to the hard right Republicans in your world. Equally strident, they seek no compromise and have no respect for the humanity of the loyal opposition in Washington.
The result of these festering fault lines in Washington is Little is getting accomplished for the average “Joe” whether in Ohio, Florida, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, or Pennsylvania. Most people are more moderate than the gerrymandering and cable news play us all out to be. Most people are not as articulate as Obama or as market savvy as Trump either. Most of us want a president with integrity, compassion, empathy, and knowledge who is more like us, than some abstraction seen on MSNBC or FOX. Gaffes are okay, when your life story was naked by many tragedies and decency.
It simply is a myth that all Democrats want to abandon the free enterprise system. Not true. I for one think it’s insane to say no one in the US can’t earn $1 billion. For all his flaws Biden represents to most Americans, moderates and independents, what enduring American values are all about. And, After the Trump era, a steady hand with a competent corruption-free cabinet seems also quite appealing!
2
I predict that Biden will be caught and passed in the primaries. I think Elizabeth Warren will go by him. She is tough, substantive, and fearless. She comes across as authentic, while Biden comes across as programmed and on automatic pilot. Look, he has twice made serious attempts for the nomination and failed. What makes us think he will win this time? Warren will be so impressive in the debates. I worry about her being too far left, but she will tack more to the center if she sees a path to victory for the nomination and then the general. But mark my words: Biden has already peaked and will steadily decline with each big primary night.
261
@Boswell
Agreed, Warren will tack to the Right.
Just like she says she'll take PAC money if she makes it to the General.
Just like she' withheld her backing last primary, from the candidate that she most resembles, and declared for the one she previously castigated.
That's why many are leery of her and she's side-eyed.
Agreed, Warren will tack Right. History proves this out.
Just like the other formerly Republican nominee.
10
She's a woman. Big no go if the ultimate goal is to beat Trump.
4
@Dobbys sock
If that is what it takes to defeat Trump, I hope she does exactly that.
21
Progressive Democrats claim that Joe Biden is naive and out of touch because he thinks he can reach across the aisle and work with Republicans once Trump is defeated. But these same progressives also believe that America will support a platform of Medicare for All, a $15 minimum wage, free tuition, the government paying off all student loans, a guaranteed income, and virtual open borders. We have to wonder who's more naive and out of touch---Biden or the progressives.
183
@baldinoc
Read the polls and get back to us. All those issues are polling very well. Even a majority of Republicans favor a Medical for All system. But don't take my word for it, there is something called "Google." Try using it sometime.
66
@FXQ
Read the polls. 52%of Americans think that Trump will be reelected.
The progressive agenda is exactly why Biden is beating everyone else. It's because the progressive agenda is not popular with Americans. They think it's naive. Even Obama, the most popular President of the last 50 years couldn't make the progressive agenda work. And to think the likes of Warren, Sanders, and Mayor Pete will is just not going to happen. The most important issue facing this country is climate change. If we don't solve that one there is no planet. But let's worry instead that Biden is proud that he got along with some bad people. Let's find a candidate who is progressively purer than Biden and will lose to Trump by a much larger margin.
34
@Marty
You may be right that 52% of Americans "think" Trump will be reelected because maybe they think that the Democrats will blow it, again, and run Biden. Polls show Bernie Sanders beating Trump, hands down like he polled in 2016. No questions asked. Biden is leading in the polls like Jeb led in the polls against his Republican counterparts. Once his record is fully vetted Biden will sink like a stone. Please, don't make the "Hillary" mistake of 2016. We all know how that turned out. Oh, and review your history, my friend. Obama ran as a PROGRESSIVE for God's sakes. Geez, Google his speeches man. The fact that he turned his back on progressives, filled his cabinet with people literally hand-picked by Citigroup maybe is the reason he gave us Trump. And I don't want anyone "getting along" with Mitch McConnell. I want a president who will steamroll him.
53
The probability of the Democrats losing to Trump is directly proportional to them nominating an ideological pure candidate. The notion that there is a vast pool of highly ideological, “progressive” voters out there who have been waiting their whole lives to vote for a democratic socialist or any similarly left-wing ideologue, is pure fantasy. The activist left wing is loud and raucous but have been almost entirely accounted for. Biden is one of the few, if only, candidate who stands a chance. I keep hearing from people who despise Trump but in the same breath say They would vote for Trump before They would vote for, (fill in the blank with almost current candidate, but certainly Booker, Sanders, Gellibrand, etc. ) As battle-scarred as he is, Biden has an appreciation for nuance and complexity, and that at the heart of democracy, and keeping a divided nation reasonably together, lies compromise. When has that become a bad thing.
146
@Paul B
All the progressive and "no we can't" wing of the party cares about is nominating at the convention the most diverse candidate and declaring "WE WON!"
They do not care about the general election unless all their hostage demands are met.
10
@Paul B
Americans aren’t ideologues, they just want the government to work for them again. Biden is too inside the system to be honest about it. Trump voters are right that the system is broken; they just don’t realize that Trump & Fox are as much a part of the system as Hillary & the DNC. Republicans win on anger against the status quo that they create, yet Democrats offer no real alternative. Republicans campaign & govern on destroying the “liberal” enemy at all costs, while Democrats run & govern on compromise. Republicans are supposedly radical but honest; Democrats are supposedly reasonable but corrupt.
Americans are capable of listening to debates and making decisions, if they are offered real debates. Democrats don’t lose because they’re too ideological; they lose because they stopped making any progressive, working class case against right-wing policies. I hear a lot more nuance & complexity in “ideological purists” like Warren than in Biden, who checks a few boxes for a few interest groups but says nothing to challenge the status quo. Trump is a fake reformer; only a real reformer can beat him.
27
@Paul B - well, it depends.
Compromising with racists to be half-racist, that's no good. Compromising with climate deniers to be in half-denial, that's no good either. Being half corrupt is no better than being fully corrupt.
So if a candidate who ticks all the boxes is undesirable due to being too "pure", what kinds of dirty should Democrats be looking for? Whose rights are likely to get thrown under the bus in the name of compromise?
14
The Democratic coalition is fractured and fractious to begin with. And the 23 candidates vying for the nomination are highlighting the tensions between the different groups within the coalition, which don’t have common goals. It’s possible that the primary process will produce consensus, but it’s more likely that the candidates will be forced to take extreme positions (reparations!) to secure the support of the two biggest voting blocs, Blacks and White women. That creates two problems: the losing bloc in the coalition (and there will be a losing bloc because the blocs don’t have the same goals) is likely to stay home in the election, and the extreme positions the Democratic candidate will have to espouse to win the nomination will be used as ammunition against them by Mr. Trump, who has rare political skills in identifying and showcasing weakness in his opponents.
Mr. Biden hasn’t a chance against Mr. Trump. The moderate voters he’s trying to win over - mainly White males - have been driven out of the Democratic Party by identity politics and aren’t going to return for a generation. Better to focus on motivating the current base. Which is why identity politics is being amped up even more.
1
Mr. Douthat, Don't do that. Don't give any ideas to Trump on how to beat Biden. Let the Democrats sort it out through the primaries, and let the the people of U.S. decide if they are willing to put up with four more years of Trump. Let us take a step forward from 45 to 46 for the country's sake.
2
My rights are not a 'check an ideological box'. I will work for and vote for Biden if he is the nominee. But, I will always let him know my views on issues that matter to me, like abortion, contraception, and the separation of church and state.
164
@AnnaJoy
Just wondering why you seem to think your views will matter to Joe Biden, who is of a gender and generation which has, all their lives, perhaps thought they were 'listening to' but has never actually HEARD female voices.
6
The issue with Biden is not that he is a moderate or does not agree with the most progressive parts of the Democratic party. The issue is that he lives in a nostalgic fantasyland in which he magically gets the GOP to behave reasonably and compromise despite all the evidence to the contrary. He does not present any kind of realistic vision about how he would accomplish much of anything other than reverse some of the horrid polices of Donald Trump.
288
@Larry Figdill
Yes, Mr. Biden has some challenges. Of course, so does every Democratic candidate.
Your postulation that he, or any other Democratic nominee, might not "accomplish much of anything other than reverse some of the horrid policies of Donald Trump" is realistic.
But, no matter who might win, even those accomplishments are a great start toward REALLY making this country great again!
17
@Larry Figdill So right, Larry. Biden is reminiscent of Reagan's question to Dukakis, "Where's the beef?" There is no substance. Biden is T.S Eliot's "The Hollow Men."
11
"He does not present any kind of realistic vision about how he would accomplish much of anything other than reverse some of the horrid polices of [the loser]."
And considering "It is over" Biden foisted him on us in the first place, does "Nothing will fundamentally change" Biden even WANT to reverse those policies? That quite answers itself, really, so I'll just vote Bernie.
9
If anyone running to be the Democratic party's nominee for President can't find a way to tell the party what they're for and how they plan to beat Trump without tearing down another Democrat, then they should not be the nominee. We need a nominee who can unite the party, then the nation, and defeat Trump. Period. Anyone running that can't follow this plan should be thrown out of the party.
211
@Pluribus: You ask for Unim, but you are unlikely to get it. The Democrats today are a series of free lance Inquisitors: "if you don't agree with me, you are finished." Republicans want to win, even to win with The Donald. The Democrats want to say "I have maintained my 'moral integrity,'" although each will define that as it suits.
9
That is really winning strategy: to have much smaller party and bunch of third parties candidates is sure way to win.
Didn't Reps try to bring down Trump in the last election? Not to mention Trump mocking Rep Party establishment.
2
A mirroring of the current leader of the Republican party's playbook to get the presidential nomination adapted to the Democratic party seems to be happening. Vice President Biden's campaign is clearly looking ahead to the question of how to swing back the disaffected voters from 2008 and 2012. If he is defeated in the primary will that strategy translate to the general electorate?
who would beat Trump, if not Biden?
Attacks on Biden by people extremely unlikely
to gain the nomination and beat Trump, are purely
destructive and do not serve the Democratic Party well.
3
Bernie, Warren and a bunch of others, according to recent polls
@yulia
polls indicate Bernie and Warren are less likely to beat Trump than Biden would be.
common intuition tells us that Bernie and Warren are extremely unlikely to win the presidency.
and particularly Corey Booker, so eager to trash Biden, is scoring around zero in the polls.
Too much time is spent on Joe Biden, not only by Ross but also by other political pundits. There are a lot of states like mine which have many months to go before we decide on who is to be our nominee. We are at that point now where our reputable op eds like those in the Times should be - to paraphrase an old song - accentuating the positive. To split hairs, to dwell on gaffes or misspoken words, is a waste of time and an insult to a thinking voter's intelligence. Listen, I think that even our more conservative Times' writers agree that Trump is a dangerous, unstable, and unhinged individual. He before our eyes is eroding day by day our democracy and our respect. In the global community, the United States is now a nation without dignity, shameful, and shameless. We Democrats are not looking for reputable news' institutions to criticize and ramble on and on about our candidates. They are ALL of high character. They ALL have moral compasses. Let us focus on their policies not their idiosyncrasies.
2
Joe Biden is his own worst enemy.
He too often doesn't think before he speaks.
The fact that his campaign team don't want him to talk to reporters because he might put his foot in his mouth says it all.
I think he will fall behind in the polls during the primaries and be gone.
Personally, I want someone in the White House isn't constantly being called out for gaffes and lies.
I've had enough of that with the current occupant.
6
Writing a prescription for defeating Vice-President Biden like he poses anything close to the threat posed by the Most Hated Man in America is lunacy.
Let the process play itself out and, at the end of it, let the best candidate prevail.
Don't deem yourself judge, jury, and executor for a campaign when voters rightfully are the only ones to decide.
There are some in middle America who honor Vice-President Biden's service and view his many gaffes as one of the things that make him human and someone with whom we'd like to share a beer.
Ultimately, his candidacy may fail, but not because of busy bodies like you, Mr. Douthat.
3
Joe Biden's strength is that everyone knows he is a decent guy who will govern moderately and humanely, who has a great deal of experience and is unlikely to do anything crazy or stupid. He is not hated as Hillary was. True, he lacks simple and appealing policy prescriptions and is not generating Obama-style fervor. But if he promises a return to normalcy, as Harding did after World War I (minus the corruption, of course), that may be enough in this era of Trump.
4
Why would anybody vote for return back to the times that produced Trump as a President?
1
Joe Biden will beat himself inasmuch as he is a dismal leader. He, Pelosi, Schumer and Hoyer have been around for decades as the Democrat Party's leaders. Where is the Democratic Party today? Barely getting up off the mat in the midterms as the republic sinks into total disarray. Each of them have been riding the political/congressional gravy train for years. They each have been intimately involved to the point their party was totally humbled. And now the are going to save us?
And they are at it again. Why impeach? Because the last time you thought you had a sure thing Trump won. Pelosi's brilliant strategy is strikingly similar this time around. Sit on your hands while the Republic crumbles because the other guys are so bad we are bound to regain some power. I'm 76 years old. I recognize the limitations brought on as one ages. Give it up you cronies. Give the many generations after you a chance.
6
As a Democrat, that despises Trump, I can't stand NY Democrats. I know I'm not alone. In NYC, a liberal bastion, Mayor DeBlasio has a lower approval rating than Trump.
The progressive left overreach with their misguided policies in favor of the poor (i.e. Driving away Amazon and recently passed rent controls), and the extreme political correctness (the opposite of free speech).
People like Biden because he's not Trump, he's a Democrat, and he's not an extreme leftist. He's far from a perfect presidential candidate, but maybe perfect for the moment.
2
I watched this last round of Biden bashing from our own. Corey, if that’s your only play, please sit out the debates to make room for better conversations.
To throw Biden under the bus because there was once a day when many white supremest members of Congress were Democrats (the are mostly in the GOP today) is like saying that Joe should have focused his efforts on ridding the party of the last remaining Dixiecrats instead of serving the people of Delaware.
We must stop eating our own just so someone in the 1-2% range can grab some prime time coverage. Won’t Corey look stupid if Joe ends up with the nomination and Trump uses Corey’s own snippets to undermine Joe. The “my campaign is fledgling so let me go after the front runner” is only going to help Trump win four more years. Thanks Corey for thinking about the greater good.
I am not against Corey or for that matter all in it for Joe (although I think he has the best chance at winning over swing state moderates), but to think that taking down Joe by being negative vs. focusing on one’s own positives and comparatives is just plain stupid.
4
Ross is mostly right about the dynamics of the candidates, but wrong over all; Biden can't beat Trump. Period. African American votes won't matter because they would vote in huge numbers for Joe anyway and there aren't enough of them.
If Biden is the nominee, scary numbers of young progressives won't vote. If the Democratic leadership is delusional enough to let Biden be the nominee, he may as well choose Hillary as VP and we can send both off aboard an ice floe and be done with them for good.
Joe is neither nimble enough nor adroit enough, nor quick enough when he's in the croshairs, to escape the Trump traps currently under construction.
The Trump cult is praying that Joe wins the nomination because his thugs have stuff in mind that sane campaigns cannot imagine.
It's too bad the Dems don't have a knife fighter; perhaps one will emerge. It's not Joe.
2
The issue is not how to defeat Biden, Warren, Buttigieg etc. It’s how to bring competence, clarity, and a modicum of compassion into the presidency. How to bring together our badly divided and antagonistic country. How to have a Congress that legislates for the benefit of the whole country not one’s base. How to make public service real truth and not a slogan that masks ego and greed.
4
Above and beyond anything else, Democrats would vote to nominate the mole who drove Bill Murray crazy in Caddyshack if they believe he will beat Donald Trump in the general election. Any mistake Biden or any other candidate makes is drowned out by Trump's soullessness, lack of decency, and disregard for anyone's interests other than his own. At some point, Biden's mistakes and the mistakes of other candidates will have to be addressed, but the goal of ridding the White House of its current malaise supersedes just about any other consideration, even if we have to start rebuilding from the destruction Trump has wrought in these 2 1/2 short years
'How to Beat Joe Biden' does not sound Christian to this ear, but better than a flogging. He is a 'People's Person' who is interested in those he meets on his life travels and shows a dislike for the self-righteous among us.
This is a timeless attribute where age does not play a factor, and look to his friends, these are many, and his family members where standing tall beside him, you will find the spirit of his son, Beau, a true believer in his father.
It is to be expected that he will have his detractors, and there are some sharp critics who would have him labeled a racist.
A statesman and a gentleman, he cannot be compared to our current president, lacking in substance and deemed crass by some Americans who voted him in.
It was the night before his son died, when Cruz made a gaffe in his direction and this is not right. The last Republican administration showed signs of being willfully detrimental to the presidency of Obama and his second-in-command, ultimately damaging to the spirit of our country at large.
Let us bridge our differences, without resorting to the childish political game of sticks and stones, before going to church on Sunday.
IMHO, Joe Biden's time has come and gone. He does have a lot of baggage and like the accident prone uncle who constantly trips and stumbles, Biden's mouth is his biggest enemy. His past record cannot be ignored when it comes to having shown racist and misogynistic tendencies. The Anita Hill fiasco is his biggest albatross in this era of #me too. Saying "sorry" years later when you are running for the presidency seems a little disingenuous.
The problem right now for Democrats is that there are far too many candidates and few who have distinguishing platforms. Elizabeth Warren is beginning to emerge as a better choice than Joe Biden to challenge Trump. She isn't afraid to take Trump on, she has practical, workable, intelligent ideas, she connects with her audience, and she has the fire in her belly necessary to challenge Trump, and hopefully win the 2020 election. Ideally, I would like to see either Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg as her running mate, with "ideally" being the operative word.
1
Someone needs to call out Mr. Douthat on the phrase "flip flop." The accusation of flip flopping probably cost John Kerry the election in 2004. He changed his mind about one issue, albeit an important one. I took that to be an intelligent man making a thoughtful decision. Our current president changes his mind on practically every issue, sometimes in mid sentence or sentence to sentence. But let's be fair, we can all agree that he changes his mind on almost every issue within 24 hours. In just the last 24 hours he flip-flopped on bombing Iran. I haven't heard the phrase flip flop (or even see-saw) once. We are infected by double-standardism.
2
You got it, Ross! Warren is the candidate. As one of the 'liberal' base, I've been calling for a ticket with Warren and Sanders since about 2008.
I thought it would be Sanders/Warren, but it will probably turn out to be Warren/Sanders.
Just to remind people, we're a full 16+ months from the election. As Rahm once said (paraphrased), anyone to thinks polls at this stage are important doesn't understand politics.
I like Joe Biden. More than Joe though, I like the economist he brought into the Obama administration, Jared Bernstein. Jared is one of the most well-meaning souls I've seen at this level. Joe brought him in, and to me that means more than most of his own record. Biden's record is not progressive.
Biden cares, but he doesn't have the policy chops to put that concern into action. I think he's too cynical for today's progressives.
I'm being totally honest. I'm not playing some stupid game of 'this is the person on the other side to beat' like a Karl Rove would do.
I've seen enough to know how the polls are going to go. I'm sorry Biden, I like you, but within 6 months I believe Warren will be the clear frontrunner. I hope she picks Sanders as her running mate. If she does, I think they'll win 60/40 in the popular vote and they'll flip a few red states to blue.
The current polls reflect a knee-jerk nostalgia for Obama. It's not nearly enough to survive the campaign season.
We're going to enter a new progressive era. We can still talk abortion.
Mr Douthat, Some of us were not born yesterday. If Biden gets the nomination and defeats Trump--the latter likely--then the religious
zealotry that captures you and Pence goes into the dustbin bin of history. Long ago you made your admiration of Pence clear. Hence: you want Biden displaced by someone you think Trump can defeat and thereby preserve the march to the promised land of zealotry. Some of us, Mr Douthat, have been on to you from the start.
4
Warren seems to be steadily pulling in support, contrasting her active style against Biden's passive "Remember me?" approach. Buttigieg needs to highlight Biden's statement that nothing will change with him at the helm. As Colbert showed, this anti-Obama position will not sell with anyone, moderates or progressives. And all the candidates can do one thing more: wait. Biden will make gaffe after gaffe. It is his modus operandi. He's his own worst enemy.
2
The only person able to defeat Biden is Biden, and he's already off to a fast start of proving himself up to the task by replaying the hubris of Hillary's entitlement to the office, and we all know how effective that was. His third time wasn't a charm, his fourth won't be any different.
Mr. Douthat;
for clarity on consistency: are you against the death penalty?
You may have shared your views on the state killing other humans - I do not remember reading anything about your view on whether or not you support the death penalty.
As a Christian, and to not be a hypocrite, you cannot support the death penalty and be against abortion.
Can you share with readers your position on the death penalty?
In the debate about the death penalty and Christian values, there are a couple of points to ponder. Jesus never said anything definitive against the death penalty, and Jesus used the death penalty to fulfill his destiny and start one of the greatest religions in history. Jesus was sentenced to death and he was innocent, yet never mention that this was unfair. If you would ask Jesus about the death penalty, his answer may not be what you expect. The unborn is innocent, is has not committed any crimes. Someone condemned to the death penalty is presumably guilty of a heinous crime, although there has been cases of abuses and mistakes. Yes, Jesus also said “those without sin cast the first stone” and that would be the closest Jesus has been to oppose capital punishment. But you can argue that he did not see a proportional penalty for the crime. Christian or not, the death penalty should be abolished from a humanistic point of view. Abortion is a different dimension debate.
It's almost sad to see this guy reminiscing, glassy eyed for yesteryear when the Senate was a good old boys club that cut deals in cigar filled back rooms. Times have changed. Forty years of Regan/Republican tickle-down economics and thirty years of Democratic neo-liberalism have hollowed out the middle class. People are fed up with both parties, corrupted by the oligarchs and corporate donors that have bought them. He and the rest of the establishment Democrats just don't get it. It's over. There's nothing left.
I'm not worrying about beating Joe Biden. My goal is to beat Donald Trump, and I will vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is.
2
You start with the assumption that Biden's challengers need to do something to defeat him. All they need to do is wait, and he will defeat himself.
1
Oh the mainstream media will make sure that Joe Biden's last chance to be the Democratic nominee will go down in flames. Biden came to the Senate in less politically correct times of he early 1970's. Senators from Southern states were the last vestiges of the pre-Civil Rights era and were engaged in trying to stop any more federal Civil Rights legislation from seeing the light of day. Nevertheless Joe Biden worked with these segregationist Senators because, despite their differences, that was the way things got done. I believe the correct term for this is hold your nose and unite in the spirit of compromise.
Besides, Joe Biden is a dinosaur and the media wants a young, hip candidate to take on Donald Trump next year. Joe Biden's time has come and gone.
If you do not think Biden is being coronated by the media, and Sanders buried, check out the report by Matt Stephens, on "This Week in the 2020 Election." Ten or eleven obscure candidates get bold face mention & stories but the nearest in the polls to Uncle Joe, Senator Sanders--no boldface or stories for him. No mention at all, except as being the nearest behind Biden in two polls.
Biden has a real chance as long as the 'hard left' Democratic vote is split among several 'hard left' candidates....as it is now.
The longer it stays that way the better Biden's chances.
That's basically how Trump 'hijacked' the Republican nomination in 2016....the anti-Trump vote was split too many ways for too long.
Or am I missing something here?
The question is does the country want radical change--not just from Trump, but from our own collective experience--or does it want steady moderation?
Most Democratic voters are not on the far left. The party as a whole has moved left, but moderates are still a larger group than the most progressive.
I support a lot of progressive issues, but I also take issue with attacking someone who was Obama's VP for 8 years as out of touch.
It's going to be an interesting primary.
8
@Talbot
The campaign promises offered by most Democratic candidates, barring Bernie Sanders, is not "radical". This such as healthcare reform needs to happen on some level. I understand that you're speaking of who can speak to the entire country in the general, and I share those concerns.
My own concern is Biden's history as a dealmaker--and the fact that he became known as a dealmaker by giving away too much to the Republicans. This is no longer the 1970's and 1980's when Mitch McConnell will sit down with Uncle Joe and hash out a fair deal and seal it with a gentlemanly handshake. Mitch is all about the power and the obstruction now, and Uncle Joe is woefully behind the times, ripe for the plucking.
This country does not need this now.
Joe Biden and his campaign should stop focusing so much on the politics, and start arranging more interviews where he can show himself to be the experienced former VP who knows 10 times more about foreign and domestic policy than Trump and many of his democratic rivals. I think a lot of people (especially those rooting for Biden) more than anything else crave seeing an experienced, competent person back in charge. That's what I think of when I think of "normalcy." Watching the Sharpton interview yesterday, my ears perked up when the conversation pivoted from the Booker back-and-forth to his thoughts on Trump's response on Iran. It's really interesting to hear the thoughts of former presidents or VPs on current affairs, especially now, with the Trump administration mostly setting the topics for news and discussion.
During Hillary's campaign, one of the things that kept bugging me was that she wasn't doing this enough. She had tons of experience and it would have been very easy for to step forward and make people see her as the next leader, but she missed opportunities. If Biden did this and changed the focus to his strengths by showing, rather than telling, he would be very difficult to defeat.
4
Or - he could work to convince voters that his current way will create a better direction for the country...
2
If a Democrat is to oust Trump and win the White House in 2020 with sufficient coattails to bring in a Democratic majority in the Senate, we must (1) choose a truly inspirational candidate; and (2) make the election not about Trump, but about how Democrats can, with a Senate majority, deliver what the country needs to make America great again. Trump promised, but he won't deliver anything of substance because he is not about substance, he is about image and brand: the image is his and the brand is Trump. Democrats need to make the image all of us, and the brand America. Joe Biden is a decent man, but as to inspiration, he is like the preacher who embarks on that shaggy dog homily that never quite finds its way home. What we need is someone who can articulate in plain-spoken English the plan for making and enforcing the rules that allow all Americans to play the game and ending the rigged deal Trump said he, because he knew how to skirt the rules, was best equipped to fix before he set upon re-rigging the game so he and his billionaire friends could take all the marbles. As I see it, there are only two candidates in this race that fit this bill: Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg. I love him, but Joe don't got game.
4
@G. James: There are plenty of people who don't find Elizabeth Warren or Pete Buttigieg inspirational and there are characteristics other than being inspirational that attract voters to candidates. And being inspirational isn't any sort of guarantee that a candidate will be able to actually execute on leading America into the future.
I really like both Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, but I will fervently support whoever the Democrats nominate. And if the nominee runs, as you say, not against Trump but based on restoring American greatness, then that will be inspiration enough for me.
I appreciate that conservative Republicans are disgusted by Trump, but
1. he won't be defeated in 2020 if these Never Trumpers can't bring themselves to vote for the Democratic nominee(at least for one term) as being in the best interest of our democracy,
2. I'm reluctant to take advice about how to defeat Trump from members of a political party that couldn't stop him from getting the Republican nomination.
29
"But then he’ll refuse to repudiate anything that falls into the broader zone of Biden-ness .....From a moral perspective this approach should make you think less of Biden, since it suggests he regards his principles (religiously-informed ones, supposedly, in the case of his abortion votes) as ultimately dispensable"
I am sorry, but Mr. Douthat is wrong. Just because Biden wants to be tolerant of other viewpoints and work with other people, people he knows he can't change, it does not mean that he is throwing out his morals. Mr. Douthat, perhaps unknowingly, has explained the reason we have the current polarization in Washington, starting with the right-wing. Few politicians are tolerant of different viewpoints and will demonize the opposition. Is that what will get us a better America? Hardly!!
8
Let's see how Uncle Joe handles Trump's baiting. There is fruit to be gained from a good street fight (of words), but it's so much more interesting when the clash is between the White House and the Democratic front-runner.
Some of the jabs coming at Biden are indicators of lesser candidate desperation, i.e., a train to nowhere. Cable news seems to be on board-temporarily.
4
Who to appeal to? Ross, Bret Stevens and David Brooks from a demographic that keeps calling attention to itself. Intensifying human misery is a cornerstone of their politics. Still there are divisions with in it.
13
Sadly, Democrats want to govern and so they must find ways to have black voters vote with environmentalists, and they must vote with pro-choice voters and so on. Single differences on policy can lose support of a key group of voters. And strong positions on some issues (like Reparations) can make winning in MO, OH or FL impossible.
Biden is keeping it bland but let's see if the debates open him up such that he loses too many voters. This column is premature. Once force to speak on the issues, Biden risks showing his cards.
3
@Terry McKenna There are black voters who are environmentalists, you know - they are not mutually exclusive categories. To put this another way, it's a very racist presumption you made, that all environmentalists are white.
I am black I consider myself an environmentalist and I also check the box for being opposed to illegal immigration and I renounce reparations.
I also want every citizen to have healthcare because I am an R. N.
I love my country and want our citizens to be healthy.
There is no one voting bloc that I belong to.
@JRS neither do I. but do you not get the point that Democrats have interest groups? Republicans do not, except for the wealthy - and yes, not all wealthy people are Republicans.
Do not take advice from Ross Dems. I don’t truly know his motive. Remember 2016 polls. Sanders beat Trump in every poll by a higher margin than Hillary. I believe his time has passed but his message resonated. All the praise of Biden does not recognize that he will not inspire or motivate the young. And yes, the over fifties vote more reliably, but we need more than that.
10
If the future of our country and planet rests with an aging lifelong politician who is gaffe-prone, long-winded and caught up in the past, we're in bigger trouble than I had thought.
13
@Ed
It has nothing to do with what the country wants.
The country wanted Hillary. Remember? By three million votes. We got Trump.
It's gerrymandering, voter restriction, citizens united small states getting more representation than the large states, and the electoral college that selects the president.
So the Democrats have to figure out who can win under those conditions, not what the people want.
And the 22 people that are running will destroy each other just like what happened in the Republican party in 2016 which is why we got trump then and why we will get trump again. SAD "Democracy" at its best.
9
I've followed, and supported, Joe Biden's distinguished career since before he was sworn into the U. S. Senate. He's experienced, considered, knowledgeably well-informed with the perspective of history, and kind, which are a great combination of qualities suiting him to be president. Is he perfect? No, but who is?
Watching him lately, however, and considering the Democratic alternatives for the nomination, I am struck by the chorus of observers, pundits and talking heads who think that Biden is now out of step with the times. It would be fair for Joe to feel that it is unjust payback for his decades of contributions and valuable service to the country, and he would be right to feel a bit chagrined.
Whether "Uncle Joe" can ultimately sell enough tickets to fill the electoral auditorium remains to be seen. It's a little like considering Madonna, herself acclaimed and accomplished in her own field, but increasingly regarded as an entertainer who should rest on her well-deserved laurels and leave the stage for nascent, up-and-coming artistes.
If Joe ever takes the stage with a pink chest bodice, a la Madonna, we will for sure have our answer, though there is no doubt it would be uplifting.
2
Despite his mistakes Biden still seems the only Democrat with enough prestige and enough supporters from various Democratic cliques to win. Bernie cannot win. Eliz. Warren may be doing better than ever but she cannot win. None of the others even make over 1% support. Harris has some strength but not really enough. And there are at least 17 others who are way above their pay scale and high in egoism.
14
@n1789: You're talking here about who can win and we haven't even had one primary election yet. Let's hold the elections and see who actually wins. The only thing that is guaranteed is that whoever it is will be better than Trump.
Why all the jabs by the Democratic candidates? Well, if you assume for the sake of argument that Biden gets the nomination. He selects one of wannabe to be his Vice President thereby anoint that person as the heir apparent. Oh, some of the others might be relegated to the position of lack-luster cabinet secretary.
6
There's a difference between seeking compromise with Republicans like former Representative Charlie Dent and current Senators Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio versus seeking compromise with the likes of Steve King or Ted Cruz. It is foolish to think one could compromise with the latter. Meanwhile Republicans need to show a willingness to work for the long term good of the nation rather than their own short-term benefit for political compromise to work. The GOP's past refusal to work with Democrats on the Affordable Care Act and their inflexibility towards a host of other matters suggests that there are fewer Republican politicians today who may be willing to work with Democrats than there were 30 to 40 years ago. Joe Biden, other moderate Democrats, and their supporters need to recognize that many Republican incumbents are afraid to compromise on health care, immigration, climate change legislation or any one of a dozen other important issues because they fear that they'll be challenged from their party's harshly ideological right wing at the next primary season. That said, the Democrats need first to rid the country of the incompetent, unstable, criminal currently occupying the White House and do everything they can towards toppling Mitch McConnell. Then, perhaps there may be room for compromise.
21
What Is important at this time in our country is to have a president who is experienced in the very physical torment of fighting a modern war, a Vietnam War Veteran or more currently the Middle Eastern wars of Iraq and Syria.
I want a president who values our young peoples’ future, a president who will avoid sending our young people into foreign battles, a president who also is attuned to the economic pitfalls of illegal immigration and the cost and burden on middle America.
We must have a president who understands the ill effects, the harm that constant war has had on our nation.
I want a president who is very cognizant of the astounding national debt we owe and I want a president who is sensitive to the impending danger of destroying our environment and the over population of absorbing the earth’s overflow of people.
I want a younger person who looks to the future, who will right our ship in the manner of President Kennedy; Seth Moulten is closest to this person.
If not Seth Molten, all is lost, then Trump 2020 will have to do for 4 more years.
@JRS Unfortunately, since JFK, a candidate from Massachusetts (Dukakis, Kerry, Romney) can not get elected nationally. It's just the way it is.
@JRS,
Who is Seth Moulton? I josh because I think Ive heard of him, but barely.
Hi Sammy, Seth Molten is not your typical new Massachusetts liberal; please listen to him, he is nothing like Dukakis, Romney or the other failed candidates.
Molten will be one of the most educated, experienced presidents this country has produced.
Also, he is a 4 term Iraq veteran who recruited a lot of veterans to run for the Congress, he was late entering the field for election because his wife just had a little baby and he had spent a lot of his time recruiting for 2018 Congressional candidates.
Biden is still Biden. He is practiced at it, from past campaigns, and is more than capable of taking himself out the race without much help from others. The only question is when and who is still in the race to pick up the pieces.
The thing to recall from past campaigns, which still holds in this one, is that Biden's appeal is and always has been upfront, going into the real campaign. He looks good, has always looked good, in an Institutional Democratic Party kind of way; that is, he talks like an average Joe but for most of his life represented a corporate shelter state. From the outside, Biden appears an ideal combination for a party establishment that promises much but rarely delivers except at an incremental crawl, with all changes signed off via the Wall Street revolving door Bill Clinton installed in leading the party's comeback from the Reagan "Greed is Good" Era. But once in a campaign, while Biden can weather some storms, he has little to offer in the way of "change" or charisma and so no real recovery power. Once he's down, he's out. For the same reason, neither is his support likely to grow, except by begrudging acceptance, which is not a good sign, should he confound his past record by prevailing. Elections are not won by candidates that are just OK for large swaths of their party.
We will have a better idea how long Biden might last this time, as well as who might pick up the pieces, after the larger public reacts to the first debate nights.
23
I do not think Warren can win. If Biden is the one to beat Trump then he has my vote. And if he picks a great VP maybe they can be president after him.
17
It is astonishing that in the era of Trump, this is the best the Democrats can produce. The Dems need a non-political person to emerge that can appeal to an electorate (both Republican and Democrats) that are tired of disingenuous politicians. How about a Bill Gates or Gen. Stanley McChrystal?
1
@Mark Stanley
Biden isn’t the best the Dems can do. There is plenty of talent in the field. It’s the voting public that needs to modernize.
2
@Mark Stanley
A Democrats who tries to appeal to the Republicans and Democrats is dead on arrival since more than 80 % of all Republicans are Trumpists.
And, by the way, a what you call a non-political person is now sitting in the Oval Office, and that does not work well for this nation nor the rest of the world.
1
@Pookie 1
Agreed Pookie. The electorate needs to be educated. Much of the black population in the South is going for Biden. The only way I can explain this is that they do not know his record in Congress - they know he was VP under Obama. Obama needed an establishment/conservative Dem to be his VP to shore up support from donors who had backed Clinton, not because Biden was progressive on civil rights.
My own evolutionary political leanings tell me that many of purist left- leaning Millenials are simply too young to understand the inevitability of compromise in life. I hope they will, however reluctantly, acknowledge that important states like Iowa, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, etc. are dominated by salt of the earth, only moderately educated, hard working folks who are not willing to buy into dramatic change. If Democrats keep running ideas like reparations, government only medical, and tax the rich up the flag pole, they will likely sacrifice our country once again to a dictator - in -waiting. These are historic times, and time for us to unite and compromise to get the job of axing Trumpism done.
36
@Gary Miller
37.5 percent of Pennsylvanians have a college degree of higher, a point or two below the national average; 52.2 have a high-school degree, which a point or two above the national average; while the proportion without a high-school degree is actually below the national average at 10.5 percent.
As to salt-of-the-earth-types: I have to assume you're referring to those wonderful folks in West Philly: lower middle-class and working-class blacks, whites, Muslims etc. who are very much interested in reparations, medical etc.
And who, not at all incidentally, provide the swing votes that will turn Pennsylvania blue for anyone who takes the trouble not to patronize them.
30
@Gary Miller
What you call the "purist" left-leaning in this country, be they Millennials or other age groups, are called centre left in all other advanced countries, emphasis on centre.
But then, the US ain't that advanced any more in recent times.
12
@Gary Miller
Do you have any evidence to suggest millenials are unwilling to compromise?
Just because they support candidates who are angling for radical change doesn't mean they can't compromise.
Would Sanders or Warren be able to enact all the legislation they want even if Dems won back the Senate? Of course not.
Compromise is inevitable...as inevitable as Republicans calling the final Dem nominee a socialist (even if its Biden or Klobuchar!).
BTW more than half of the 23 contests Sanders won in 2016 were states that flipped to Trump in the general election so don't discount the willingness of the red state electorate to embrace a bold alternative candidate.
3
Within the foundation of the nation’s democratic history and principles, political leaders or aspirants have to continue build in a platform that answers people’s needs of the moment. American families are hurting, they need solutions and nostalgia will simply not do.
VP Biden is making a huge mistake by offering unity based on 1990s experiences. We’ve had a dangerous and absurd war based on lies, a Great Recession in 2008 and while the so-called economic recovery has done very well for hedge fund managers like Stephen Schwarzman, for example, who just donated £150M to Oxford University to fund the oxymoronic Stephen Schwarzman Center for the Humanities. On the other hand, American families are barely making it through the end of the month
By bypassing a voter’s listening tour, Mr. Biden is recreating the 2016 Clinton Presidential campaign strategy of “its my turn.” Had he made the effort to talk to American families, he would have avoided gaffes and negative headlines. Saying he would find ways to work with Mitch McConneel,for instance, a person who has fried to eliminate the ACA on more than 50 occasions , is nuts.
25
I do not care about "how to beat Joe Biden".
Rather, I pray that a moderate, and qualified, person, will defeat Donald Trump in the general election.
And I am not a praying person.
76
I believe that Joseph Biden is a good man. He believes in this country and has dedicated his life to serving others.
Donald Trump seems to be neither a good man nor someone who has dedicated his life to serving anyone other than himself.
Now is the time for a younger generation of leaders to guide this nation.
Citizens are demanding change. If we end up with two 70-something white men fighting it out for president, I'll be very disappointed.
42
@David
Looking at age as a qualifier does you a disservice.
The only thing that matters is my mind is policy and consistent moral substance.
The only candidates who have that are Sanders and Gabbard.
Just to clarify something. It is true than most minority Democratic voters when ask on their ideological spectral location would call themselves conservative Democrats. But the same minority voters when asked about particular policy proposals on abortion, death penalty and gay marriage, they pretty much are in close alignment with the liberal Left. Just like many conservatives are "shy" Trump supporters, most primary and general election minority Dems are "shy" liberals.
Another point, support for the Hyde Amendment by Democrats simply makes no sense in an environment when Southern states are passing almost complete bans on abortion. Why should prolifers get a concession on public abortion funding, when entire regions of the Country simply lack access to safe and legal abortion?
5
I believe that the only legitimate argument against Biden is the second play (the generational argument) that Pete Buttigieg is implicitly using. All others are less likely to work. (For example, the first play adopted by Senator Booker to attch Biden's civil right records is very disingenuous. It is also difficult to image that Sander and Warren can unite to go against Biden. By themselves, they are less likely to beat Biden.) Mr. Pete Buttigieg is my first choice and I hope that he is able to successfully convince people that he best represents the future of this country.
3
Vote for the candidate who will be best able to deal with getting Trump out of the White House when he refuses to concede.
Older Democrats (Joe Biden/Nancy Pelosi) don't give me a lot of hope that they will know what to do.
6
@William Jefferson: The younger ones have too little experience to be able to effectively work with the intransigent Republicans. The objection to Biden and Sanders is ageism at it's worst. You would be up in arms if someone said that all the other Democratic candidates are too young to be effective as a President.
If a candidate of ex-VP Biden's stature fails to win the nomination, it means an unmitigated disaster has happened in the Democratic party, and the groups that have helped Joe Biden exceed all polling expectations after his announcement and remained with him despite early political attacks from Sens. Booker, Harris, and Gillibrand (and Trump, of course) will be shaken with a disillusionment that will certainly be exploited in the general election.
Former President Obama, who benefited immensely from Biden's counsel and political stature, warned of a circular firing squad. His rivals can only win if they are armed, dangerous, and willing--for none can claim the broad appeal of Biden on their own merits. We would have seen evidence of this by now.
Despite missteps, the Biden campaign is positioned very well for the general election, and Biden is right to stay the course by not attacking his opponents (which would only be too easy, in some cases).
Keep the strong front-runner strong: we need one!
30
@Sam Daniels
Biden is benefiting more from Obama than Obama ever did from Biden (politically, at least). Voters should (and will) be able to get a good, long look at Biden the 2020 candidate in debates, speaking to a national audience, and running his campaign before deciding whether he or someone else is best suited to be the nominee.
There's 7 1/2 months to go before the Iowa caucuses, 8 1/2 months before Super Tuesday. He is a front-runner, but an early front-runner. Let's not coronate him just yet. I hope it won't be an ugly or dirty or lame primary (so far the 2 sets of attacks against Biden have been lame in my opinion), but if he has the mettle to beat Trump he shouldn't have a problem beating his primary opponents.
1
@Sam Daniels - so when newcomer Obama won the nomination, did that also mean an unmitigated disaster had happened in the Democratic party?
1
As a NeverBiden, here's one of my primary concerns.
Yes, he will dodge and weave around issues he has no commitment to one way or the other -- and there seem to be many -- and will denounce even some of those he clearly still feels strongly about (e.g., Hyde). But when push comes to shove, Biden will go right back to his comfort zone, where he has really always been.
He promises to compromise and "get things done" once elected. That could easily mean backpedaling on many of the issues he now says he supports or disavows. His comfort zone, after all, is with the banks and the big money interests (it's whom he represented in Congress) and not necessarily with minority and women's rights. These are the good ol' days he longs for.
The rich may not have anything to fear from Biden, but some of the rest of us might.
21
@avrds, not nearly as much as the rest of us have to fear from Trump again.
2
Biden was second in command in an administration that failed miserably in attempts to get along with Republicans. He either never learned the lessons from that endeavor or he was out to lunch the whole time.To be nostalgic about bi-partisanship at this time should be enough by itself to disqualify him.
30
Please help me understand how McConnell’s goal to make Obama a one-term President in ant way would prompt anyone to ‘work’ with Republicans. Let’s not confuse the group tyranny he inspired with representative government. Mitch is the architect of the current ‘Reign of Terror’ that the Republicans have succumbed to.
15
@phil morse: You have inverted history in your argument against Biden. The Republicans ignored efforts by a Democratic Administration to work with them. Blaming The Republicans refusal to work on Biden is ridiculous.
4
Mitch McConnell's baldly stated priority for the republican party from day one of the Obama administration was to make him a one term president. Kevin McCarthy was equally candid about their tactics to achieve that. Obstruct literally everything from his hand and then tar him as a loser. All attempts to work across the aisle were gleefully embraced as opportunities to sucker punch Obama and the country to for that matter.
6
The pivotal voter in the 2020 election is likely in Wisconsin and in neither Milwaukee nor Madison. Everyone tossing around strategies or predictions should watch a few episodes of "That 70s Show" and think about who Red would vote for.
5
You know who would have been great at appealing to those voters? Sherrod Brown. Very popular among blue collar voters, as he's always been on the workers' side.
The more Biden keeps sticking his foot in his mouth, the more I wish Brown had decided to run.
18
@Alan
Hmm...Sanders won BIG in Wisconsin last primary.
In fact he won the Midwest (that HRC lost to Trump).
Red always did come around and listen to Kitty.
We know whom Eric, Donna et al voted for too.
3
@Alan
I think Red would vote for Amy Klobuchar.
Not so sure about Kitty tho !
The debates will be good for the candidate who is prepared to ignore the questioners' speeches and say what s/he wants to get across to voters in the very limited time s/he will have.
Eric Swalwell is good at getting his message across, and in spite of media giving him little attention so far, he can emerge from the debates with a new level of recognition and respect.
@Pecan
Lol...Who?
1
Biden will defeat himself.
It is inevitable that with his long history of saying things that he later regrets, his belief that he is the anointed successor to Obama ( though Obama specifically mentioned Harris and Pete . Buttigieg to David Remnick in 2016 in this regard and not Biden), his baggage and long history of being on the wrong side of many policy decisions, and his general air of I am the only one who can beat Trump, will come back to haunt him.
It is still early but honestly I am more impressed by others running for the nomination than Biden.
His polls are not rising and the only reason most people support him is because they think he will win the nomination, his name recognition and that they desperately want to beat Trump ( don't we all).
However, few of them love him the way others do like the supporters of Sanders, Warren and Pete Buttigieg.
25
Ninety percent of Trump voters will vote for him again. That’s roughly six million who may not, enough for a landslide loss for Trump. Biden has the ability to attract those swing voters. The 2020 election will likely be decided by a handful of Midwest states. It’s all about those electoral votes. Yes Biden is old school, sometimes clumsy, but he’s also genuine. There’s a long way to go, but his commanding lead in the polls isn’t just name recognition.
65
Before Trump remade the Republican Party, the Republican base saw themselves in him, which is why they elected him. They still overwhelmingly support him. Trump is not a temporary aberration. He's the new norm for Republicans. And conservative Evangelicals are all in with him.
Joe's view of Republicans as reasonable people who will return to normal after Trump is gone is what a Guardian columnist calls "delusional nostalgia."
If Trump goes, Mitch McConnell or someone like him will still be there. We'll need a leader with a more realistic outlook to face him down.
13
@writeon1 or a future Pres. Biden will come to his senses and realized that not even Sens. Murkowski or Collins are reasonable republicans, as Obama did in his second term.
3
With 20 candidates in the primaries, it is not difficult to diagnose that the Democratic Party has some sort of autoimmune disease. The problem is that, whoever wins, will have enemies within.
So far, the safest bet is Biden. But there are too many BIG egos involve. Democrats cannot even get their act together in Congress on how to deal with sitting President who has clearly committed crimes. Bob Mueller delivered in a silver plate the pathway for impeachment!
USA faces the most crucial election in many decades. Four more years of Trump will completely shatter many democratic institutions.
I hope the immune system of the people will overcome such self-inflicted illness - "demosegostosis".
11
Unless Joe Biden shocks the world in next week's Democratic debates, he will likely beat himself. That is, Biden needs to offer meaningful proposals for creating jobs, reducing inequality, tackling climate change, improving race relations, framing an immigration policy, etc. He also needs to demonstrate that he understands some of progressives' concerns, and understands how the Democratic Party has changed in recent years. But if he does his stale "Joe from Scranton" shtik, his poll numbers will begin sliding.
13
I'm not sure I am eager to accept the analysis of a staunch conservative who has every vested interest in seeing Democrats fail.
Of course, it's not as if Mr. Douthat wants Donald Trump to win again either. Conservative or not, surely the president goes against the grain of every tenet of his Catholic faith, except the biggie, right to life.
This campaign has barely begun. I want to see how they all perform on the debate stage before I can declare anyone certifiably dead. I have my favorites, and of course, we all have our essential criteria again, stronger for some than others: who can both excite and defeat Trump?
It's a dual message and quite a condundrum but one that by necessity will reveal itself over time.
49
@ChristineMcM
Every conservative never-Trump Republican pundit is desperate for a Joe Biden candidacy. It's not terribly enlightening to read their analyses, but it certainly is highly amusing.
They are all talking to each other, not to voters. You know who is talking with voters? Elizabeth Warren. This is scaring all the conservative pundits to death.
I'm a lifelong Democrat, you are not--although you've come to your senses as your party has lost its mind. I've always understood the value of job security and making a decent living in the minds of blue collar workers and white collar back-office workers--I'd sit and listen to family members compare the benefits packages of the big-three auto makers they variously worked at for hours on end.
People are frightened now--they keep hearing about robots and globalization. Their paychecks have shrunk. They can't buy houses, they can't pay for college. Ross Douthat wants them all to keep pumping out babies--babies are expensive.
Trump was supposed to save them, but he's not going to save them. People are figuring it out, and Democrats only need 77,000 votes in three moderate states.
On a side note, I come from a Catholic family--back in the day they were all okay with legalizing abortion. It had nothing to do with 'morality.' It had everything to do with the particular religious social club you belonged to. If the government wanted to legalize and even pay for abortions for people not in the club--fine.
10
@ChristineMcM: Thank you! Finally a voice of reason and maturity.
1
@ChristineMcM,
Over time? How much time do you need to accurately assess Biden? He has given us decades of gaffes, boneheaded utterances, disastrous judgement like support of the Iraq war, pro-bank and Wall Street over middle class families and just a fossilized and calcified belief system stuck in the 90's when our country demands bold, progressive thinking. And don't forget his boorish treatment of Anita Hill to whom he still hasn't apologized to. Sanders, Gabbard and Warren are all up to the challenge to lead this party and country back to peace and prosperity. Want to repeat the lowest Democratic turnout in history like 2016? Run Biden and watch people stay home. You have to give people a reason to turn out other than "I'm not Trump."
4
We need a candidate who energizes the base and drives voter turnout. But, we also need someone who can win a good percentage of independent voters in "the middle."
Joe Biden will do pretty well with the independents, who see him as reasonable and non-threatening. They don't want an extremist. However, I wonder whether Biden would depress voter turnout among Democrats. I'm not seeing a lot of enthusiasm for him.
Elizabeth Warren will do great with the liberal base. I think she'll get a strong turnout if she's the candidate, and will win the popular vote, as Hillary did. However, I worry that voters in the middle will view her as too extreme, and that she may struggle in states she needs to win the electoral college.
Which candidate has the best combination of popularity with the base, plus appeal to the independents?
7
The best play is to ignore him; he lost twice already (88, 08).
His lead is by name recognition and familiarity - and what the another candidates have to become is recognized, familiar, on their own terms and certainly not in contrast to Biden.
The problems we face today are not to be resolved by solutions from yesterday and the voters will know that when the candidates are seen. Focus on presenting inspired dynamic leadership and Biden's advantage will evaporate.
36
@Gerard
Biden has swung twice and missed presidential pitches by a mile with a more conservative Democratic base than we have now. It's only a matter of time before the DNC and the voters tell him he's struck out and needs to go back to the bench. We desperately need a new starting line up before Trump wins another game. A circular firing squad is not the problem, the problem (as any successful athlete or team will acknowledge ) is fear of loosing is the common mindset of losers.
3
@Gerard Abraham Lincoln lost every election in his life except the Presidential one. Think about that for a while.
@Gerard
The problems we face today will never be solved unless Democrats stop losing elections to reality game show hosts.
FIFY
Interesting narrative. My take is the Democratic primary voters will go to the polls and vote for the candidate that best represents their needs and values. Better wages, child care support, healthcare insurance, education, etc.
If Biden doesn't address those issuses, his chances of winning are greatly reduced. Candidates like Sanders, Warren and others have, and as they did their poll numbers rose.
10
Joe would help me change the lifters in my Camaro. And I don’t even own one. Sure, he says things that you or I might say, but does that make him a bad human being? I’d hope not.
8
Biden is a relic of the past, his appeal is a nostalgia for a return to 'Normalacy".
Unfortunately the Republican Party of today is not the party of the 70'and 80's. The game has changed, there is no 'Normal' to go back to.
While it is always interesting to see a conservative analyze the Democrats, I would suggest a much more interesting and relevant analysis is offered by Naomi Klein, currently running at The Intercept.
15
The columnist is overlooking the gorilla in the room: The Democratic candidate gets to run against Trump, who lost the popular vote last time by some three million votes. This time Trump should lose by at least twice that amount, no matter who the Democrat is.
And this time, Bernie Bros. and others won't jump into Trump's camp, because HRC is not running.
Perhaps it's good to worry, not to get overconfident; but confidence is called for here: Trump will be a private citizen on Jan. 20, 2021, at high noon.
But I admit that it's prudent to act and work as if the election wasn't in the bag. Nonetheless, no Democrat should be losing sleep over 2020.
5
Trump is more popular now among Republican voters than he was in 2016. He's a stronger candidate now. He has fully taken over the Republican party, and his voters are very enthused about him.
I know that doesn't make sense to the rest of us, who see how truly awful a president and human being he is. But don't misunderstand -- his voters LOVE him, and he'll get better numbers in 2020 than he did in 2016.
19
@Jim Muncy
I would lose sleep if the party nominated Bernie or Elizabeth Warren. Their supporters provide intensity but lack breadth when it comes to appeal in the general election.
As a more conservative older Democrat, and we are greater in number than the radical left, Biden is our guy. I would sit home before voting for Sanders or Warren.
5
@Ryan Exactly. Democrats MUST do whatever it takes to get trump out of office. Promise whatever to whomever but get the votes! Electability is all that counts.
1
Democrats do best when they run on issues. It's hard to run on issues when you don't have any real ideas, much less consistent positions. Elizabeth Warren understands better than any of the other candidates what the issues are, and actually has plans that address some of the downsides of capitalism. The best way to beat Joe Biden, and all the rest of them, is to run on the issues.
Warren/Pete 2020
22
@Vanessa Hall -- No, Elizabeth Warren does not understand the issues. She very competently proposes rearranging all the deck chairs as our ship of conditions for human life on Earth goes down.
She would most certainly be our best candidate IF she addressed the related matters of climate change and loss of diversity as she has done regarding economic matters.
9
@Vanessa Hall
Bernie Sanders runs on issues too and has plans to implement them.
@Dick Purcell - she has addressed the issues. To say she is rearranging the deck chairs is not true. I would gladly vote for her over any other candidate - but that said I will vote for whomever the Democratic nominee is.
4
The way to best Joe Biden is to follow the Elizabeth Warren strategy of presenting detailed policy plans to solve problems that most non 'woke' democrats really care about. To be fair, Amy Klobuchar has also developed specific policy initiatives as well. Other so called top tier candidates like Kamala Harris, Kristen Gillibrand, and Cory Booker have focused more on pandering and identity politics whereas Pete Buttigieg and especially Beto O'Rourke have concentrated more on style vs. substance.
Having said this, perhaps in the age of celebrity and tribalism (just look at Donald Trump), the electorate may actually care more about charisma and style vs. substance...I hope I'm proven wrong.
13
@tippicanoe Warren will most certainly lose to Trump - she simply will not be able to muster the support necessary to overcome the deplorables a la Hillary. While I like Senator Warren - even though she shows more naked vulgar opportunism than any other candidate - simple 'policy appeal' isn't enough. Donald Trump proved that. And while on the subject, she has no major climate change plan and her closing all private detention facilities is over simplified and silly. Look for a candidate that has broad country wide appeal - well, that's Joe Biden. Sorry Millennials.
2
Ross Douthat is too sophisticated to support Trump. Unless the alternative is any Democrat.
Here he undermines the most conservative Democrat. And if his advice succeeds he'll attack with even more zeal the more liberal Democrat who arises.
When you oppose all the realistic alternatives to Trump you need to own that you support him.
406
@Richard
So true, I want to repeat it: "When you oppose all the realistic alternatives to Trump you need to own that you support him."
237
@Richard
He is just being honest. There is nothing terribly sophisticated here.
The Democrats are allowing their party to be hijacked just like the Republicans. In fact, if we could destroy BOTH parties, we would have a slate of interesting and Moderate candidates from which to choose; because America is neither the wacky Left nor hostile Right. Daily life is largely centrist and not extreme. And change happens at the personal level, not by grand proclamations and policy swings.
We will eat ourselves from the inside out, and it is sad to behold.
I will miss Biden.
15
@Richard
The Democrats have presented no realistic alternatives to Trump. If this is all they got, they are doomed.
5
This is the playbook for How the Democrats Lose Elections.
Allow the Democratic activists choose the most liberal candidate they can find. Check all the boxes on progressive orthodoxy. Confirm amongst yourselves that the purity and rightness of your agenda will win the general election.
Lose to Trump.
There, that was easy.
197
@David G
And yet last time they chose Clinton over Sanders ... which I do not think matches your description, but did not work out too well either.
51
@Gerard
That just shows there is more than one way to lose, not that the far left choice is a likely winner.
Hillary lost because she was a charisma challenged candidate who had a knack for turning off a significant portion of the voters...not unlike Mitt Romney.
18
When was the last time the democrats chose an activist as the one you are talking about? by contrast when they select a centrist they always win. Just ask Hillary
23
While reading "How to Beat Joe Biden," I feel like I'm reading more pieces about how to beat Biden than Trump. I think a big reason why Biden leads in the polls is that people think he has the best chance of defeating the president. Factors responsible for his appeal includes being a centrist, having experience as Vice President for 8 years, and the present nostalgia for a presidency more typical of the past. If Joe Biden can thrive under the pressure from his own party, that could be a good sign he has a chance to be victorious in November. If another Democratic candidate shines in the upcoming debates/primaries, I suspect many present Biden supporters will get behind him or her.
73
@Jeffrey Freedman
you left out that white people will vote for him.
Democrats cannot win with their niche groups. ANY one of these niche groups falters and Trump wins, as we saw in 2016.
I love seeing Biden in front of groups of middle aged white guys. THAT gives me hops for change.
5
@Jeffrey Freedman
"the present nostalgia for a presidency more typical of the past" ... I would agree if put in *the present nostalgia for a presidency in which an adult occupied the Oval Office*.
5
@Jeffrey Freedman "I suspect many present Biden supporters will get behind him or her."
Not this one particularly if they remain far from the center.
2
In Mr Douthat’s various analyses of Democratic politics, there is never any room for conviction or principle. Everything is assumed to be strategy and pose, manipulation and image.
To me, Trump completely dissolves the line between conviction & strategy: he seems not to have any concept that a principle might conflict with whatever baits his voters. Of course neither principle nor its absence enter into his governing priorities, which are determined by his & his co-billionaires’ interests—government run like a business.
Maybe Mr Douthat and I are both wrong, or both right—maybe we have all just learned, in our money-saturated politics, to see only marketing in our opponents and only conviction in our allies.
9
The Democratic candidates would do well to focus on promoting themselves and their platforms rather than piling on Joe Biden. Who knows which person will emerge as the nominee? But for whomever triumphs in the primary, we will need a united party going into the general election - and, hopefully, before having gifted Trump with ammunition against that person.
41
Ross, I think you found the answer to your own question in your first sentence.
Fecklessness, thy name is Cory Booker.
Biden may not win, but Cory has no chance. He is an unqualified showboat.
98
@ed connor
Are we talking about the same Cory Booker?
Because that's not the one I'm familiar with...
4
@ed connor: Team Cory with Kamala, the Incarcerater General, and you have a ticket to match 1972 - or 1984.
1
Agree, like the mouse eyeing the cheese, he has mistaken every trap for an opportunity.
2
Last night, Bill Mahar concluded his show with his view that no current democrat already declared can defeat Trump in an age where most of the country wants someone ‘comfortable’ to run and beat a television personality. That person is Oprah Winfrey.
While Mahar was not endorsing her and she probably doesn’t want to run, he said that others can step up and make the case.
In 2016, Mahar predicted that Trump could win at a time when Clinton was far ahead in the polls. early in this race, signs are already showing a major split between progressives and centrists in the party.
Maybe it’s not that far fetched. In 2015, most people thought the GOP would select Bush, Cruz, or anyone but Trump.
5
Jon Stewart - except he is wise enough to decline.