Has anyone considered that trump's supporters support him, even though he is the antithesis of who and what they claim to be, because they are living vicariously through trump - enjoying all the things unethical, immoral, amoral, illegal, biggoted that he partakes in that they, his supporters (you know who) can not partake in? Ponder that and you will begin to understand what is and what will continue to go on.
3
Reading about his rally in Orlando, the thing that leapt out at me was his ranting about Hillary Clinton, who hasn't been in the political news for 2 years. Obsessing with an incident in the past, that is not currently relevant, is a symptom of Alzheimer's Disease -- I know, because my mother suffered from Alzheimer's.. In 2020 Trump will be 4 years older than he was 2016, yet the effect of the passage of years on his mental stability has gotten very little attention. Certainly this article did not discuss it.
24
Trump does have an instinctive ability to dig into the lowest common denominator and motivate voters who feel dispossessed or just plain angry. Democrats cannot take the high road in 2020. The way to beat Trump is to galvanize their voters against a hateful and criminal president. Forget about compromise. This election is going to be a no holds barred, bare knuckle fight between Trump and the Democratic nominee. To date, it seems that Warren is the only candidate with the moxie to go to -to-toe with Trump.
10
I find it soul-crushing to realize that for so many Americans, the only thing that really matters is their wallets. All the American ideals these so-called patriots supposedly believe in just don't matter. So long as they feel like they have money, they are willing to tolerate children in cages, a president who sees himself above the law, threats to reporters, bullying our allies, highjacking of our elections by foreign powers, dismantling of our institutions, etc. Is America only an economic power? Does nothing else matter? This election is about who we are. I am terrified of the answer to that.
19
I believe NYT doesn't like general comments, but you win some and you lose some. Probably most of Trump's fanatical followers will live long enough -- long after Trump's reign -- to hear history's overwhelming verdict that their man was the worst, or maybe the second worst president in our history. Long after they will have any reason to remain invested in their abject emotion, that will be history's knowledge carved on the mountainside, and they will live in the shadow of that mountain. I wonder how they will see themselves then.
12
Bouie writes, "If virtually every Democrat under the sun is running for president, it’s because all 23 candidates think they stand a chance against a vulnerable president."
That's not true. With the exception of Biden, Sanders, probably Warren and possibly one or two others, they are all actually running for Vice President or to elevate their profiles for 2024.
The current polls are no more than fodder for pundits. The election will come down to Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly one other state. That's the ball game. It matters not the least if a million more people in Alabama or Indiana vote for Trump in 2020 than did in 2016 or if a million more people vote for the Democratic candidate in California or New York in 2020 than voted for Clinton in2016. In choosing a candidate, Democrats absolutely must keep that in mind.
The toxic mix of deceptive and lying Republican outfits, such as the Club For Growth, interfering in the Democratic primaries coupled with the Democrats' circular firing squad will lead to a Trump victory in 2020 unless people start thinking for themselves, reject all electronic echo chamber input, and nominate a Democrat who has credibility with and speaks the language of people in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Aspirational politics has its place, just not in the 2020 Presidential election if you genuinely want to defeat Trump, an election in which the current reality must take precedence over aspiration. If you don't win, you lose.
7
When a person sees life as a zero sum game, they usually expect a win for themselves to cost somebody else.
5
Remember that Trump was installed, not elected. Remember also that the Supreme Court died in 2000. It is quite likely that our last election happened years ago, and we are just slipping into a pothole-filled chaos.
10
@Tankylosaur: In 2000 the Supreme Court fouled out of requiring equal protection of the law nationally in federal elections.
Life-term appointments to assure independence don't seem to work as advertised either.
6
What is truly remarkable, at least to this outsider, is that America has become a country where an apparently serious column about a president’s re-election prospects could come out the day after that President is credibly accused of rape and it isn’t even mentioned as a possible factor. What in the world has become of your country?
29
@John David James: All value in the whole Trump universe is measured in $. Nothing else matters.
10
About a month ago I listened to an account of an interview with a lumberman who lived and worked close to where I was driving in the northern Wisconsin forests. The lumberman measured presidential success in board feet, and by that measure Trump is doing a good job. Lumber demand is so good that the sawyer has added another employee to his ten man crew.
It is the same around where I live in southern Minnesota, except the measure is grain and soybean prices. While, tariffs have depressed prices, $28 billion over two years in special aid to farmers lessened the sting.
We have to remember how disconnected millions of our fellow citizens are from the national dialogue. It's board feet and commodity prices. And my that measure Trump is doing a good job.
6
@Charles Tiege: The tariffs Trump imposed on Chinese imports probably raise costs enough to absorb the government handout to farmers who'd prefer to be profitable farmers.
5
I would never hire anyone to cheat for me. I would expect to wind up as the pigeon myself.
Journalists continue using the word “election,“ saying Trump was “elected.“ Having been a journalist, I find contemporary journalism’s inability to tell the truth staggeringly frightening. And yes, pretty obviously, he’ll be “reelected” with help from all the conventional sources, and his new ones. A lot of journalists know that. Unlike Mr. Boule, they pretend they don’t — because what else would they talk about every day? They need to conduct this sideshow as some sort of mystery, and snarkily remain above it all, because one thing they know absolutely: whoever becomes president, they’ll still occupy their jobs long after the president is gone. Do you remember on “election” night 2016 when the entire NBC panel (except for Richard Engel, whom they made fun of) found Trump’s “election” an amusing hoot, when Chuck Todd was virtually laughing at how entertaining it all was. I wonder if he and the rest of that crew find it so entertaining now. I wonder how amused they’ll be on “election“ eve 2020. Whatever happens, I suspect Mr. Engel won’t be there, and whatever can be said about American journalism that will say it all.
4
If dems and independents don't show up and vote in 2020 the country will get the quasi-dictatorship it deserves and dictators don't leave quietly.
9
"Will America Make Trump Great Again?"
When was he ever great?
12
The Democratic leadership is extremely weak. Nancy Pelosi really should not be Speaker of the House. Pelosi wasn't that good her first time around, and I really don't understand why, at 79 years old, she had to be Speaker again. She's even worse now. Her illogical, cowardly approach to the impeachment issue is beyond stupid. Her explanations seem to be coming from a doddering grandmother at a PTA meeting. It's ridiculous. At a moment in time when our democracy is in dire jeopardy needing strong leadership to counter the evil Trumpism, we have an ineffective, stubborn, nincompoop, acting like inaction is best. Outrageous.
3
The polls were wrong in 2016. Many more people support the current President than are willing to share that with a pollster. Democrats and pundits need to dial back the smug and focus on convincing Americans to vote for them.
10
Yes, Donald the Magnificent may win again and, judging by past behavior, the Dems may yet send one (ore more?) challengers into the field against him, who are so focused on the interests of a subset of voters, that they mess it up.
Also, do not underestimate the willingness of Trump's troll army to fight dirty. With or without Russians, they will do whatever it takes to ensure his re-election. Not because they're particularly fond of him, but because he's a tool. They use him, for instance to stack the courts with judges of a particular bent.
And bear in mind that you're not only electing a President. There are Senators and Representatives, Governors and State assemblies at stake, too. Already, the deck is stacked against an inclusive society. Even if the Orange One were to lose, chances are others may win, and America could grow colder and darker...
12
@Rudy Flameng
Interesting comment. BUT... You really don't think the MAJORITY of Americans don't already realize this?
Most of us didn't vote for Trump in the first place as some kind of a fluke, you know.
We live here.
We see what's happening.
2
Dear Democrats,
MI, WI, and PA are clearly very important states.
But we should also compete to win in AZ, NC, and IA.
- Those states also have competitive Senate elections that are very important.
- The single electoral votes in NE-2 and ME-2 could very well matter.
- And we need to protect VA and CO, and compete in OH.
- FL is a wildcard. I never count on winning there (but that would be great!)
Here is a good online electoral college simulator:
- https://www.270towin.com/
Here are monthly state-by-state polls of Trump's approval rating.
- https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/
- I usually add 7 points to Mr. Trump's net approval, as this particular poll tilts somewhat Democratic.
5
No, America will not make Trump "great again"...simply because he was never great in the first place. (Without Putin's help he wouldn't be in the White House today.)
Anyone with a conscience and a brain recognizes that Trump is both a liar and a fraud who has managed to slime his way through his political life with the help of his clueless base of support which refuses to acknowledge the obvious.
12
Stop with the analytics. No return engagement for this psychopath. The man's a crook and is going to jail.
7
Many voters realize Trumps public persona is partiality just that. As with Reagan who spoke in hawkish terms he was far from a war monger. Yet he precipitated the fall of the Berlin Wall, the elimination of 20000 nuclear weapons, the fall of the "evil empire",B-52s no longer air born 24-7 for decades... Trump won't accept trade agreements and treaties made for political expediency but not in the best interest of American's. The economy had flourished, unemployment across the board at 50yr lows, raising wages..without disruptive government minimum wage mandates as it should be, eliminated regulations with little benefit and huge costs. Unlike Obama, his views on social issues don't -evolve' on whims.. nor has he divided the nation along racial lines with' deplorables'language as Clinton/Obama did..for political expediency. I never liked for him for his personality but he is the perfect President for these times to stop looming socialism and wide open borders Democrats are seeking.
4
@Lane: The USSR was staggering drunk on its feet when I visited it in 1976, four years before Reagan was elected. US hostility has propped up many governments that thrive on isolation.
4
Wrong! wrong! Wrong! American didn’t make Trump great in any way. Trump supporters voted against both parties and against a system that allowed a losing war with Iraq, the 2008 Great Recession, that didn’t put anyone in jail for looting the economy into bankruptcy. Instead, they were made cabinet members and undersecretaries by President Obama (many are now pundits on Cable TV). While the economy is “recovering” from the brink, it’s not a good recovery. People are still unable to make it at the end of the month, notwithstanding holding two jobs. So, who can win? Hopefully, a Democrat who addresses the needs of the people. This should not be an anti Trump campaign; it should be a pro-people campaign. VP Biden should be in notice, that running a nostalgic campaign won’t do it. Sec. Clinton already tried that (two for the price of one) and lost. That’s the danger. Only Sen. Warren has a well thought out platform that offered real reform.
6
Trump didn't win in 2016. The Russians won those 80,00 votes needed to clinch the election, along with Comey and Wikileaks.
Let's face it, Trump doesn't play fair and everything is possible, fair or foul. Whether it is assistance from abroad or nefarious groups from within, the election is pretty much a toss up determined by normal polling or not. It will be over when it's over. In the meantime, the Democrats better get their act together if they want this country to remain some form of a democracy. Right now it's more of an oligarchy devoted to big money rather than a country by and for the people. Indeed, it's a haven for the billionaires regardless of party.
7
@David Michael
Agree. And sadly, the rest of the country didn't take note of what New Yorkers tried to them about when it came to voting for Trump.
You're finding out now.
4
@David Michael: Trump's fans like him because he doesn't play fair. Meanwhile, sane people will have no truck with Trump whatsoever.
1
@Steve Bolger
Make no mistake about it. And as sad as it is, Trump appeals to his overwhelmingly white fan base by focusing on their fear of "the other" and the threat to their white supremacy -- economic prosperity notwithstanding
2
if there ever was any doubt that the media, political campaigns and the donor class work together, it's the DNC threshold criteria for getting on stage in a debate.
How much money did you raise? How do you get your ideas out there to interest people with money? and what does that have to do with presidential timber?
This is why our government is so unresponsive to the people. If we had mandatory public campaign financing, our representatives would work for the people and not for the money.
And Donald would not be permitted to profit from his office. The congress would stop him... if they worked for us.
2
@Occupy Government: They have literally defined electability to be a function of the amount of money donated to the candidates.
2
Yes, this man and the corrupt forces behind him must not be underestimated at any cost. Anyone who has the vaguest notion of why he is so dangerous for our Democracy must mobilize against him as if it is neck and neck, as if we're Hong Kong citizens and he's China, as if it's the last election you will ever get to vote in. We cannot take a single vote for granted. We have to overcome the titled electoral college map, defeat him and do so resoundingly.
Please Mr. Bouie, please keep beating this drum.
8
At the end of the day if people feel the economy is good or they're financial situation is better (in their opinion) they will vote to keep it going. Meaning: they will vote from trump. Regardless of the lies, corruption, scandals, destruction of our relationship with allies and the environment the people will vote based on their wallet.
1
A strong economy for whom? Mr Trump’s presidency has taken great care to “stuff the stockings” of the donor class and the “amoral majority.” In the 150K vote cushion that turned the election for DT, the very people who are his base are hurting and struggling to afford basic needs of housing and medical care. If you make $300K and health insurance costs you $3000 more than it did in 2016, it is a 1% hit. If you make $66K, the same increase is 4.5 times greater. For the top 1%, these changes are a rounding error, hence the reason they may be insensitive to the concern. Similarly, rent and housing costs continue to put the American dream of home ownership further out of reach.
The party that wins must have policies that address the middle 70% of income earners, the group that both parties claim to protect, but fail to do anything to actually help. More of the same “comfort food” from the Dems will hand Mr Trump four more years. As a long time Republican, I want to see someone we can all respect sitting in the White House, not four more years of Jr High School drama and ranting from a man with serious issues.
Please vote!
7
Nancy Pelosi may indeed believe the Democrats are likely to win aginst Trump in an election...but she knows for sure that as things now stand, even if the House were to impeach, the Senate would not convict, Trump would be strengthened, and we still would not be rid of him before election day. and even a removed Trump would set Pence up, sitting in the big chair but free of much of Trump's personal taint, as a stronger candidate for 20.
5
The Democrats should run as if the polls were 60-40 against them from now until Election Day. That should lessen the chances of a circular firing squad and of the triumph of campaigns whose main selling points are impossible dreams.
7
@Mike
Democrats should read "The Art of War" by Sun Tzu.
2
Never forget his opponent will be a Democrat.
2
Well, first it was his core voters that made him great, followed by the Republican Party, and then our country made him great and gave him the Presidency with the electoral vote. The natural progression of this sick and hollow country is to give him a second term with both the electoral and popular vote.
2
The 2020 election will be decided by the same group that tipped the Electoral College to Trump in 2016: the non-voters. It's the folks who don't show up at polling places making the difference. Either too lazy to make the effort, prone to believing Russian disinformation ("They're all crooks, anyway.") or just otherwise occupied. And that's the Great American Shame.
5
The NYT star columnist runs a long opinion piece on whether Trump wins re-election and does not mention Russia? This comes close to editorial malpractice, but that is not the point. Can you people summon enough patriotism to see this threat and to alert your readers? He did not 'win' in 2016 and he will not 'win' in 2020. He stole in 2016 and he will steal in 2020. Stop gaslighting America.
4
The president has many advantages. A good economy, the perception that he is a victim of just about everybody--the FBI, the CIA, liberals, moderates, scientists, teachers, Hillary Clinton, the fact-based news media, all his former cabinet members, the list goes on.
But there's more. Unlike other presidents who've lost, Trump will not hesitate to encourage and accept foreign interference. He has his own TV network which falsifies news while appearing to be legitimate.
And much of the damage he has done, the climate for example, won't be sufficiently catastrophic by the end of next year.
3
The president has many advantages. A good economy, the perception that he is a victim of just about everybody--the FBI, the CIA, liberals, moderates, scientists, teachers, Hillary Clinton, the fact-based news media, all his former cabinet members, the list goes on.
But there's more. Unlike other presidents who've lost, Trump will not hesitate to encourage and accept foreign interference. He has his own TV network which falsifies news while appearing to be legitimate.
And much of the damage he has done, the climate for example, won't be sufficiently catastrophic by the end of next year.
@JR
What use is a "good economy" when the water and air is polluted and the planet is burning up because we're saddled with a President in climate change denial?
Guess what???
SCIENCE doesn't lie.
But this President does.
6
If you want to defeat Trump, then the Democratic candidate and his/her must concentrate on policy and the damage Trump's policies have done to his constituents. Abandon all the talk about his character or lack of it - this conversation cuts no ice with his core believers. One might best recycle Regan's question, "Are you better off now then you were 4 years ago?"
3
as loose-canon-in-chief, Trump may also take us into war, or keep us on the very brink of disaster, if he thinks it would be a strategic advantage for him on election day. the risk is slight for him personally, given that his presidential immunity is all that's keeping him out of the hoosegow as it is. and even his strong supporters know who comes first in Trump's book.
1
Presidents (of either party) whose tenure happens to coincide with favorable economic conditions are credited with those, usually for no discernible reason. What specific actions has Trump taken that can be said to have directly contributed to the positive aspects of the current economy?
2
Trump’s hardcore base is the relative limit of his base.
So the question is really not up to Trump but whether Denocrats turn out their base, and win over independents.
6
The most dangerous threat to Democrats is other Democrats.
Most Americans reject the following positions advocated by many Democrats
1. Individuals should be judged by their identity group
2. The American Dream of success following hard work no longer exists
3. Racism is the cause of mass incarceration rather than criminals
4. Reparations should be paid to Black Americans by all other Americans who had no responsibility for slavery 150 years ago
8
I hope you are wrong since his economic and tax policies will harm long term our prosperity.
His aberrant conduct and demagoguery of hatred, division, and lies should guarantee a resounding defeat. It is shameful to think a majority of Americans would want to reward this con artist and demagogue. Most Americans cannot stand him and view him as a horrific and shameless depravity.
1
Trump was already trounced by a large majority of voters, even with plenty of sculduggery on the Republican side... yet he wound up in office anyway, proving the flim-flam artist was able to ride to victory on the shoulders of the rubes in the rural districts and their electors. not for nothing is Trump from Queens.
2
Yes Bouie, we're all worried about that possibility. But you don't know any more than the rest of us about what will happen.
1
America cannot make Trump great again because Trump was never great. He has spent his entire life as a grifter, con-man, cheater, sexual assaulter and all-around parasite, getting away with it because of the force of his money and his lawyers. Even his alleged economic achievements are mostly the result of the Obama Administration's careful repair of the economy following the deep collapse that occurred under George W. Bush. As someone else said elsewhere, Trump is the grift that keeps on grifting.
3
I must break the fourth wall and comment on this column: It is excellent: level-headed, humble, honest, well-written, easily understood, persuasive, crisp, intelligent, wise, and to the point. It stands out like a rose bush in a weed patch.
Who is this man, Jamie Bouie?
[Sorry, just felt compelled to speak up and out. Now, what were we talking about? Oh, yes; please proceed.]
Democrats want to keep everyone poor and dependent on government handouts.
2
Republicans want to keep everyone poor and dependent on substandard jobs and opioids.
6
Jamelle Bouie writes as if this were a fair election.
We’re looking at extreme gerrymandering, voter suppression laws, and strategies like shorter early voting periods and fewer polling places located in poorer neighborhoods or with easy access without an automobile.
In Tennessee, they passed a very specific law to break up efforts to register African American voters by criminalizing registering multiple voters when even common errors are discovered on forms.
And those lovely last minute tricks like misprinted voter information that provides the wrong times or places to vote? Might try that one again. Billboards advertising “Vote by text!” The Republican imagination is inspired when it comes to voter suppression.
Foreign money? Dark Republican PACs are happy to accept funds from ‘friends ‘ of Russian oligarchs who suddenly find extra money in their pockets.
And, of course, nothing’s being done at the national level to secure our voting systems from foreign hackers. And Dear Leader has indeed invited just such involvement, in that mafia style he has of asking, and not asking. for something to be done.
And bots. And trolls. The GRU. All in working order. A plethora of fake Facebook and Twitter accounts, dormant now but ready to go.
This will not be a fair election. It’s all uphill when you’re voting out a dictator.
Resolve to do whatever you can.
4
I hate to say it, Mr Bouie might be right. I am taking a lot of deep breaths.
I was very depressed at the state of our nation until I read about the days of George Washington and the minority of rural Americans or Colonists who were leery of true sovereignty and still adored the king because they preferred a strong man. And no offense, but most were Scots-Irish. This is eerily similar to now and yet, we have survived.
"I’m inclined to believe that President Trump is on the path to defeat."
I hope you are right, however, I predicted Trump to win last time and he may pull it off again if the young folks don't get enthusiastic about a candidate and show up at the polls as well as Blacks and Hispanics. Things have gotten worse for the Middle Class since Trump took office so he could be sitting in the Oval for another 4 years.
3
All I can think of regarding polls and pundits is how wrong they all were. And we are going to have more of the same this time around.
It probably would help if the media only reported on issues, what they mean or do not mean to the American people and leave personalities out of it.
The Economy is usually out of a President's hands. And speaking of that, the only part of the Economy that is doing well is the Stock Market.
That is not enough. Retail sales are down, manufacturing is down, food, gas, utilities and housing costs are up. Most Americans are more affected by these issues than the stock market, retirement accounts not withstanding.
Trump will only win if the Electoral College declares him a winner. Any Democratic Candidate worth their salt will campaign in every State and not take anything for granted. They should not give into Trump's rants and have Trump define them and their campaign.
Nancy Pelosi had the best answer to that particular stunt by Trump when she told him in that famous WH meeting that she will define herself. That Trump will not be defining her.
By the way, why isn't the media talking about Bill Weld, the only Republican who has filed to run against Trump? If the media is really sworn to paying attention to what could matter in the next election, they should be interviewing Weld and having him define why he chose to challenge Trump, in spite of the GOP acting like Trump lackeys.
Come on Media, do your job and cover Weld.
3
@Jean
Actually, the polls were correct.
Clinton won by almost 3 million more votes.
2
Here is why the outcome is unlikely to be as the writer suggests. Time and time again, when self interest and principles collide,self interest prevails.As long as Americans think life is good,Trump has the wind at his back.
2
Economic good news will give Trump a boost but if he can start a war it will lock in his re-election. Past presidents have prevailed when a war or likelihood of one was nearby. If Trump had his Cheney (Bolton may fill the role) we could find ourselves courting a war. But without such a backroom force, Trump may yet stumble into war and find himself holding the two magic wands of economy and war.
The best outcome of the 2020 election would be a decisive Trump win against Biden, in both the electoral and the popular vote. Trump isn't the problem, nor are the Republicans. They are merely doing what comes naturally to them: lying to the people to achieve power for themselves and their cronies.
What must be decisively beaten is the type of politics represented by Biden and his cronies. They are the real danger, precisely because they believe in their hearts that their policies actually help the American people, instead of merely setting the stage for the next right-wing takeover.
No, give us Trump for another four years. Let the youth of this nation continue to move leftward and become more politically engaged. Trump has rebuilt the Democratic Socialists of America in his first time. His second will lead them to power.
3
@Walter Bruckner The kind of politics represented by Biden was already defeated, however shadily, in 2016. Calling for a trump victory in 2020 from the left is something only someone who actually feels safe in this country could possibly do. Maybe think of the millions who don't, and who otherwise might share your politics.
4
@Walter Bruckner In other words, throw out the baby with the bathwater. PS. There is almost no chance that Biden will be the nominee.
1
To accept Trump's inevitability is to ignore what actually occurred in the midterms. To believe Trump will win in 2020 is to dis-believe those results. There will be an even greater number of women seeking House seats, and there will be intense battles for the Senate. These factors will increase the anti-Trump voter turnout. None of the candidates except Biden have the long trail of hatred shouldered by Hillary, eliminating the significant portion of voters who did not like Trump but couldn't stomach Hillary. Even Trump voters will lack their arch villain, a key feature of their irrational devotion. Instead, all of the supporters of the Democratic candidates can unite with even greater fervor in their hatred of Trump.
Trump's message will threaten health care coverage & Medicare, Social Security, and the environment, portions of the economy relatively independent of the market. Large minorities feel less safe, and the immigration crisis has only intensified, leaving Trump the blame.
Most importantly, the Republicans are the candidates of no message except fidelity to Trump. They can all be easily labelled as having no morality, no competency, and no plan. I don't object to these 'Trump may win' pieces, however, because the paranoia that is created will add another incentive to get out the vote.
7
Sadly, the factors you mention point toward at least four more years of Trump. Add to this the electoral college, disenfranchisement in contested states, and the likelihood that the Democrats end up with a “centrist” candidate, and Trump has a lock on re-election.
2
@Michael FormanNow we need to urge state legislators, in states with the 74 more electoral votes needed, to enact the National Popular Vote bill.
The bill is 73% of the way to guaranteeing the majority of Electoral College votes and the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country. It would change state winner-take-all laws (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), without changing anything in the Constitution, using the built-in method that the Constitution provides for states to make changes.
It requires enacting states with 270 electoral votes to award their electoral votes to the winner of the most national popular votes.
All voters would be valued equally in presidential elections, no matter where they live.
1
It was clear to me, as an avid student of the 2016 election, that an "outsider" (Sanders or Trump) would win. As has been shown around Europe as well as the U.S., there is strong sentiment being shown in various ways that many "have nots" and "fed ups" are choosing to rebel against the globalist, elite world order. Trump read and reads these tea leaves well. A candidate wishing to beat him must clearly speak to what the failures are in our winner-take-all, rich-poor world and to ways to rectify them. Bernie Sanders is doing just this, and has many fans in my native state of Pennsylvania.
51
@Ellen Trump may talk about the failures of our economy, but voters will have had almost 4 years to see what he's done to address them. And what's that? His biggest accomplishments so far is that he's given huge tax breaks to the wealthy and added a trillion dollars to the deficit. Talk is cheap and the people Pennsylvania and the rest of America will not be fooled again.
15
@Ellen What does "elite" mean, politically? People throw it around as a pejorative, but since it comes from all sides it doesn't seem to mean anything in particular, except "people I'm afraid might think they know something I don't."
Also, "globalist" is a shady word.
12
"globalists", "elites", "coastal elites", "cabal of international bankers", "enemies of the state", Soros... there's an echo in here. we've heard this all before. it all comes down to a scapegoat, and the most reliable scapegoat of all, especially for tehe right is always the Jews. and, sure enough, anti-Semitism and hate crimes are on the rise.
17
I think Trump wins. But, he could hurt himself and blow it. He has been a good president for citizens, who is the constituency he works for. He is not a war monger. He has done some good with prison reform. He has helped half a million manufacturing jobs come back. He has started towards a new trade agreement. He has taken on China. He believes in the laws - and the laws at the border, too. He wants to see American vulnerable get the chance to succeed, as they are drowned in a sea of surplus labor from poor country immigration. He sees through Dem strategy in this area.
I know Trump says offensive things some times. But, he is the only president I have EVER seen who seems happier, and more energized two years in, and after a bruising and relentless attack by enemies. He really is an unusual person.
31
He has transferred an enormous amount of wealth to the ultra rich, divides us daily, is actively destroying the environment and all our institutions and norms of decency, forcibly taken kids away from parents, normalized racism and done many other things that have destroyed what makes America great.
I hope that Americans wake up and realize that this is not who we are or want to be. The economy has and will be fine no matter who is in charge.
119
I have no idea how to explain to people who will not listen that Trump’s taking credit for job trends that started before he took office, that border crossings have roughly tripled and we’re deporting fewer people, that Trump’s NAFTA revamp has been sitting at Senate for over a year and we had a better trade pact with China ready to go that he trashed.
They won’t listen, and they won’t go look for themselves.
But even more tiresome is the fantasy that a guy who supported the war in Iraq and then lied about his support, who has threatened pretty much half the planet, who has promised to bomb “until the sand glows,” who has stuck up for torture and attaxking families and whapping auspects around, is somehow a pacifist.
88
@tbs
Donald Trump has only been 'good' for those who support him. I cannot remember a president in my lifetime who was unwilling to reach across the aisle in some way, yet Donald Trump has gone 180 degrees and not only does he make no attempt at bipartisanship, he attacks states that are blue, urban, and educated with punitive tax changes and high-handed policy changes. He has yet to say or do anything positive with Democrats: indeed, we are his daily foil for rants, tweets and insults. Obama wasn't like that. Neither was Bush, Clinton, Bush senior, Reagan, Carter, Ford, Nixon, Johnson, or Kennedy.
The man who says he likes to grab women by their private parts is not a good president for women, obviously. The president who thinks of brown skinned people as rapists, terrorists and gangsters is obviously not a good president for brown people. Nor is the president (who insisted that the five young black men who were proven innocent in a rape case should be punished anyway) a good president for black people. Obviously, the president who thinks Nazis and white supremacists are fine people is not a good president for Jews and other non-white people. And of course, the president who summarily throws transgender members out of the military where they have been proudly serving our country is not a good president for LGBTQ folks.
Who does that leave for him to be a good president for?
95
It may very well be "The End?" or perhaps in the tradition of Looney Tunes & Merrie Melodies, "That's All Folks!" Hillary Clinton was clearly not "likable enough" especially with young progressive and minority voters. She failed to unite the party by ignoring the Sanders progressive wing by picking an unknown, uninspiring center-right running mate in Tim Kaine and her baggage, primarily hubby Bill, left her unable to attack Trump's character. Joe Biden is set to repeat that fiasco as he, too, is a Wall Street centrist with racist baggage with women and minorities going back to his opposition to busing to end school segregation, hobnobbing with arch-segregationist senators, allowing the destruction and public humiliation of Anita Hill and now stubbornly refusing to apologize for these indiscretions. Biden almost guarantees a dis-united, and potentially demoralized, Democratic Party and low enough turnout that will allow Trump to squeak by again. And, if that's the case, it really will be "The End!" or "Finis" for the Constitution and democracy as we knew it. "That's All Folks!!" It's all in the hands of Democrats and so far it's 2016 "deja vu all over again."
1
@Paul Wortman
If the past two years and what another Trump presidency may portend doesn't inspire people to vote in 2020, then they will deserve another Trump term.
2
I am confused. We have become a morally bankrupt country under Trum’p’s rule. There are no human rights for thousands of immigrants, and we are watching as they suffer in Camps. We are not only watching, we are complicit because the best we are doing is acknowledging without trying to stop it! Where are the protests in the streets? There are journalists trying with words to arouse our indignation, hoping for outrage.
We are at the brink of war with Iran. Trump will attack, probably this week so he can continue to dominate the news cycle. This cycle has heralded his restraint for not doing what he set out to do. We are fools not to acknowledge he would let people die because he wants to marginalize a debate!
Yes, he can win. He is running. He is maniacal, and he seems to be a master at manipulation, and autocratic rule. He has no moral compass. We are no longer a system of checks and balances.The Congress has retreated. The majority of the senate have become his generals. When I was a young college student we protested the Vietnam War in the streets. Where are the people of a free country, watching autocracy take over before our eyes. Trump admires dictators, and he wants to be one.
Yes he can win an election. He has won an election. He will do ANYTHING to stay in power. He has told us that. He has shown us that. Trump is the problem. But we become the problem if we do not stop him. If your voice is all you have, raise it.
5
Moral bankruptcy would be to incur monumental debt for our progeny, trash the environment and overload the country with millions of illiterate, poor people who can not take care of themselves and their many children; that’s immoral to strap our young with this burden.
2
I hope Democrats can settle on an electable candidate, and then devise some easy-to-remember slogans. Most voters don’t want to hear Democrats’ position papers, however smart they are. That’s why negative campaigning works. Give voters something to hate or doubt, then slap on a slogan. It helped carry a nincompoop into the White House.
6
I would like to agree with you that,"I’m inclined to believe that President Trump is on the path to defeat." However, you go on to cite the same polls which last time convinced the majority of Americans that Hillary would win - which she technically did in the popular vote - so I am not yet convinced to get behind the polling date or the smarmy comment from conservative's that Trump is on his way out.
Right now the democratic presidential line up looks chaotic with so many people running it dilutes and conflates all the messaging that is trying to get out. The line up looks like a publisher's clearinghouse group photo. The pack needs to be culled and quickly, else it will look more chaotic than Trump and his daily inanities.
I think that this election is the democratic candidates to lose, my fear it that they will unless they can streamline and create clear messaging. Its an issue of time that is not on their side.
4
Perhaps. But Trump isn't a 'normal' president, and if he continues to display his profoundly poor judgement on nearly every issue, our 'booming' economy will not save his bacon. In fact, our economy isn't great for a lot of people - it's much more fragile than stock market performance would indicate. Many are living close to the financial edge, and any number of things could throw us into a downward spiral.
5
I have lost my optimism about this country. At it's core we are a selfish, racist, xenophobic country who defeated fascism but in truth our fascist tendencies are always there; lingering just under the surface anxiously waiting for the proper to words to inspire and reawaken. The siren song of a raw explicitly racist, is irresistible for this core group and that's what he's counting on. He doesn't need great numbers, the Bolsheviks took over the largest country on earth with a committed minority. You and many democrats are brimming with optimism which leads you to underestimate the incredible odds that lie ahead, the fact that you are drawing some satisfaction from polls this far away from the election leads me to believe you are underestimating the challenge and the battle will be lost.
7
Trump was NEVER great. He was an uncontrollable, nasty, argumentative teenager who his father sent to New York Military academy because the boy was incorrigible and bent on having his way, no matter how wrong that was. We are now stuck with him until he is no longer president, a job which he never did deserve. Anyone he interacted with can probably tell at least one story about how Trump tried to cheat, or make someone else sorry they met him.
He is a crook, and a mob boss who lies as it suits him.
12
Today in Russia there are probably thousands of Russia’s best engineers working on the mechanisms of every type of voting system used in the USA, in an effort rig the 2020 election for Trump. In many cases, the Russian military intelligence officers will have to physically infiltrate in the USA and rig machines in key districts. As long as Trump stooges still control the Justice Department and other agencies, the Russians won’t have much difficulty entering the USA.
If Trump is still in office in November 2020, then Putin will again decide who the president of the USA will be. The only way that the Democrats could remove Trump from office would if he blatantly defies a Supreme court ruling regarding documents or allowing testimony. That could cause some Republican senators such as Grassley or Romney to actually call for Trump's removal. Thus, the Democrats best hope would be to hold off on enacting any articles of impeachment until the court battles are over. Just proving collusion and obstruction of justice won't sway any Republican senators.
Trump famously said "I could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose any votes". That has now been replaced by "Trump could be caught handing America’s top military secrets to Russia and still not have any Republican votes for impeachment"...."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4216597
3
Bouie, you forgetting about the Russians and the lack of secure voting.
2
If Democrats continue to focus on peripheral issues like gender identity and reparations, they lose in a landslide.
8
Trump did not win the 2016 election because of his great hair, his skill as an orator and a debater; or because voters believed that he is a good family man, an honest man who pays his taxes, a dignified man, a compassionate man, a man who cares about people in trouble, a man who treats women and minorities well, a man who knows a lot about foreign affairs, economics, terrorism, education and the Second Amendment or because they truly believed that Mrs. Clinton was the devil.
They voted for him because they believed that he is a lout and a zany with big appetites, a mean man, a crude man, an unethical man, a big crook who gets away with doing things that other people don’t get away with; who as President maybe would do some things that would end up helping them or at least hurting their perceived enemies among liberals, minorities and refugees from other countries.
It is important in coming days that all of his failures and soon-to-be realized failures as President be understood as his own failures and his own failures alone, not as failures of Democrats or President Obama or Mrs. Clinton or the media or Muslims or blacks or Jews or Mexico or anyone else who permanently or temporarily ends up on his enemies list.
I think thus far he’s done a pretty good job of convincing the country that it made a very grave mistake electing him.
1/2
5
He has utterly failed his base, and Democrats should be spending the bulk of this pre-election time letting them know it.
Four more years of him will spell the end of democratic
law-based government in this country.
7
Don’t accept the propaganda drumbeat that ”the economy is great”. An annual deficit of $1 trillion can “create” 20 million jobs paying an average of $50,000 (including benefits) per year. That’s what lowers the unemployment rate by over 10 percentage points. We’re hoping future generations will somehow pay the debt they are being saddled with for our “prosperity”.
“Debt is the fatal disease of republics, the first thing and the mightiest to undermine governments and corrupt the people.”
— Wendell Phillips, 1864
1
The economy is not the most important metric. Clinton’s adage “it’s the economy stupid” was remade “your not stupid, it’s the economy” by Mitt Romney. It didn’t help Mitt win. He was up against the coolest president ever. Trump thinks the stock market is all that matters. The truth is his tax cuts were a hand out to companies so that they can buy back stock. The shutdown was unpopular. He hasn’t won the trade war yet. He faced a blue wave that showed women more active than ever.
1
Predictions of Trump's behavior and Trump's electability are futile exercises in trivia.
Now really, who could believe that Americans in those backwater states without ocean frontage can be tricked and swindled by a New York conman, twice?
2
@AynRant
Sorry. It says a lot that they were even "tricked" the first time around.
The Democrats are not really offering any attractive alternative.
3
@Ambrose Rivers
They sure did in the 2018 Mid Term elections. And they are now.
3
@Ambrose Rivers
Anything is an attractive alternative to what the Trump administration is spewing out now.
3
Again? When was the first time?
3
He’s lost the middle “let’s give himself a chance” vote that got him elected.
You want an outsider's opinion. A South American opinion about what's going on with Trump, the Democrats, and the North American election? Maybe not...
Who cares? Here it is: Everything Trump does is calculated to get your attention. A day...until noon...five minutes? That's it. (I guess that's not hot news in America.) But it seems like 40% of North Americans don't get that. And that's what has the Democrats - and the sane people in your country - a little worried.
Politics - the presidential election - is like a popularity contest: not the smartest, not the one with the most foreign-policy experience, or the best business sense. The one that's the most "popular," whatever that means.
Trump is popular like Brillo pads and Preparation H. And that makes him dangerous...
4
McConnell is the culprit and kingmaker in all of this. The Obama administration is still seen in the public’s eyes as largely ineffective. Some see Obama as largely prudent, of course, under the circumstances. The circumstances were McConnell’s obstructionism and it could have been worse than it was if Obama hadn’t been smart enough to work within its restraints. But it was obstructionism. And it gave the Obama administration its “ineffective” aura and laid the groundwork for the strong father approach that Trump has milked, despite being—well, pretty much nuts.
McConnell continues to milk the sanity vacuum at the White House for his own—mostly “let’s politicize the legislative branch” ends. Absolutely shameful. The good people of Kentucky sadly have this doofus as a legacy.
5
If Obama was so smart he should have outed McConnell after the 2010 shellaking and taken his case directly to we the people.
@karen
First of all. Obama was "so smart" as to realize the challenges and limitations as prescribed by the U.S. Constitution.
Anyway. Who's to say how an American electorate that would ultimately for someone like Donald Trump would even respond to such allegations if he even brought them up??
1
Trump has already returned America from the "Obama's Apology tour" and Michelle's "I was never proud of America" whiney little blurt. Additionally he's realized that there is actually a Normal where Obama only saw minorities and thought holding up variations was the best thing since sliced bread. America has definitely improved under Trump.
3
@Dixon Duval
Pulease. If it weren't for Obama most people in this country would be living with Pre-existing Health conditions without coverage from their private health insurance, even though they always paid their premiums. This is one very major change that has helped everyone whether or not you are enrolled in the ACA. Including you. Furthermore, families with kids up until the age of 26 can still be included on their parents health coverage as well.
The ACA was not just for the minorities. It is for all of us.
Many Presidents before Obama tried to get Health Insurance coverage for the citizens. but were not successful. Obama did it.
And if it weren't for the Obstructionists in the Republican Congress and the racists McConnell, Ryan and Boehner, Obama could have accomplished a lot more. Remember? McConnell, Boehner and Ryan were the men who declared, when Obama was elected, that they would make sure that Obama would be a one term President.
In spite of these foul men, he not only served two terms, but did so with incredible dignity. He was and is a World Class leader. He rebuilt our reputation with the world after the Bush Presidency dragged it so far down the rabbit hole.
I do not to confuse you were facts so I will stop at these.
4
@Dixon Duval
Anyone familiar with the bigoted history of America, and the shameless way Native Americans were slaughtered and pushed off their land -- not to mention the entire aberration of Slavery and racial injustice, knows that there's a lot of history behind that "whiney little blurt.
And I suggest you do a bit more research to get with the program.
America has only improved for some under Trump.
2
@Dixon Duval
I disagree. America has gotten worse. More people than ever are worried about their retirement, medical bills, and how they'll manage until the next paycheck. Our infrastructure is crumbling. In 2016 America did the political equivalent of firing their primary physician and replacing him with a really bad plumber. Eventually, Trump's incompetence and lack of fitness for the job will become too obvious even for most of his supporters to ignore.
4
The Fox Noise Machine will drown out all reason and sanity. A large portion of the population will go to the poles believing the Democratic candidate is the devil incarnate.
5
Trump is playing Nancy Pelosi like he plays golf. Ignore the rules, keep talking and declare himself the winner.
He’s already evaded the impeachment hazard and she’s lost her ball in the rough.
Game over.
2
@Nat Ehrlich
Too soon to declare victory as far as Pelosi is concerned.
She is the only person who can take Trump on and with such aplomb! And she does not have to cheat.
3
Trump will win a second term because the majority of White Americans will vote for him AGAIN! His policies are designed to hurt those who are non-White, not straight, not Christian, not male and not citizens. The vast majority of White Americans (including White women) could care less what happens to Americans who fit those earlier labels.
You heard it here first folks!
1
@professor
Guess what??? --
This isn't the first time we've heard this.
And that's also why the MAJORITY of Americans didn't vote for Donald Trump in the first place.
2
Oh for pete's sake. We have 17 months to go and nobody knows who the democrat nominee will be. Just stop it.
5
At some point, the economy will collapse into another major recession. The only question is whether it happens before November 2020. If it doesn't, then Trump will easily be re-elected.
Sadly, most U.S. voters are low-information and low-motivation; they vote based on their own interests, either economic or a special interest (abortion). Most will say that, sure Trump is an idiot, but the economy is doing pretty well.
There's also the GOP propaganda effect. One-third of the country only sees an altered version of reality, and never hears anything negative about Trump or Republicans.
5
Bouie compares and contrasts Trump's economy with those of other Presidents seeking a second term. Conventional wisdom is that a better economy is a sound predicate for re-election. In this case, there is a big but. No matter the economy, Donald Trump has disgraced and embarrassed our nation on the world stage. Unlike his predecessors, he destroys daily all standards of decency and integrity. I believe that because he thrives on chaos, shrugs off assaults to human dignity carried out in his name, and lies so much that trust and Donald Trump cannot be put together, that customary economy/re-elect analyses have no merit here. Those who voted for him were fairly confident that he would adjust to become more Presidential. They, and we, now know that such confidence was misplaced. Part II of Mueller's report shows a man who pulverizes whatever solid foundation of morality that is the Presidency. He is unique. Comparisons to others are useless.
71
@Riley Temple
No, I'm sorry, I don't agree, we must compare to others.
"Disgraced and embarrassed our nation on the world stage".
That's, to put it very mildly.
5
@Riley Temple I hope you're right but when I talk with his supporters they cite the economy as the most important issue to them. The lies, corruption, cuddling with dictators and oh so many other scandals don't bother them. They don't like his behavior but it's all about the money and the economy.
4
@Riley Temple: After Trump, the Deluge.
I worked late and did not vote in 2016. After the NYT predicting HC had a 88% of becoming our next president on election day I figured it was in the bag. To my horror and the majority of Americans that figure was false. Never again will I make that mistake.
5
Nancy Pelosi and much of the media has argued that impeachment is a risky strategy for the Democrats, possibly stirring a backlash of sympathy for Trump. Bouie's column implies that not impeaching may be even more risky. This is not to say that the Senate would actually vote to remove Trump from office; we all know that won't happen. But by not focusing public attention on Trump's crimes and betrayals as detailed in the Mueller report, the Democrats encourage casual voters to conclude that Trump may be annoying but he hasn't done anything seriously wrong, and heck, the economy is good. If, say, Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination, they will be placing their bets that a promise of Medicare-for-All will triumph over voters' inclination to leave a well-enough economy alone. That is a bet that I would not be willing to make.
4
Steve Bannon said that the more democrats talk about race, the more republicans win. If dems talk about reparations, such a winning issue for Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio, then Trump wins. If dems continue to be offended at every perceived racial slight and demand apologies, as with the petty pile-on with Biden, then Trump will win. If they bash Biden for the crime bill, which many in the Congressional Black Caucus supported at the time, Trump will win. If democrats demand that the candidate be sufficiently "woke", then Trump will win.
Non-coastal voters are turned off by this obsession with race and gender that has afflicted the democratic party and demands that white candidates apologize for their "white privilege."
Democrats must focus on the bread and butter issues that affect all Americans. Furthermore, they must provide a answer to the immigration issue. They are letting Trump and the republicans dictate the narrative that democrats don't care about border security. I don't understand why Pelosi doesn't replay the televised meeting where Trump claimed he'd sign any deal and take the heat. Democrats offered 25 Billion for the wall and other security in exchange for Daca. Trump caved to Miller. And they should ask Trump when Melania's family will be repatriated since they don't like family reunification.
Biden may be flawed and not sufficiently "woke", but he's the one that can win back those voters we need for 270 electoral votes.
3
The economy still may play well with Trump's base but he is not even trying to bring in anyone else. So it will be up to the Democrats to keep the votes coming and encourage all to vote. If Trump wins, you can count on his lies, GOP gerrymandering and bad faith all around to contribute. We need this win more than anyone can imagine and no excuse to sit home and not vote is going to cut it. It's all persons on deck.
2
@Paul Raffeld
The strange (and awful) truth of Trump's claim of a good economy only applies to the 1% of his support base.
And all those poor, working-class and "uneducated" whites who flocked to Trump's clarion call of his loving the poorly educated -- along with our American farmers and small-businesses who have been duped and left bankrupt because of his tax cuts for the über-wealthy and those prolonged tariffs on China ...
You need to WAKE-UP!
If American voters don't consign Trump to the dustbin of history, he will succeed in MALA, Making America Last Again. You cannot be isolationist in an interconnected global economy, you cannot remain a military power without diplomatic allies, you cannot remain a trading power without foreign partners, and you cannot tackle the environmental challenges of climate change, the technological challenges of maintaining an edge in the computer age, the educational challenges of preparing Americans for the jobs of the future, by ignoring science and trying to revive the long-dead past.
4
Trump is on track to retake it in 2020. He has the GOP
Blocking for him. The DNC doesn't have a game plan. They have 20 players in the game, and they are trying to defeat one another. This only weakens them all coming into the finals. Trump wins. Dems lose. To win the race, any political race you need to know you have all the electoral delegates, plain and simple. Trump’s team stated recently that they have the delegates so forget about the polls. Yep, that sounds right. If I could be Queen Dem for the Day, I would have the come to reality talk with all the hopefuls, make them agree to get behind one candidate for the party, and in this case to make America American again. Come on Dems get it together now. The Dem division is playing into Trump's small hands.
3
Bouie is right that a good economy boosts Trump's chances of reelection and if he were a run-of-the mill President he would be a shoo-in.
But Trump is really an aberration, no US President has ever been as corrupt, inept and lacking in any moral compass as this one. Usually external factors have a bigger impact on the economy than the President; at best they can take measures to prevent disasters and avoid damaging it. Because of Trump's ineptitude
we can expect only a chaotic response to a crisis. Four more years are a serious danger to the US health. That is why impeachment proceedings must start to let a bright light shine on Trump's misdeeds, and those voters not part of the Trump cult will not let the state of the economy in the few months prior to the election be the deciding factor in who they vote for.
48
He already has made America great again. And it'll get even better when he's re-elected in 2020.
2
@M
He's made some of America great again -- And that won't change if he's reelected in 2020.
2
The only thing you were wrong about the night before the 2016 election was to focus on the vote of the people instead of the electoral college.
1
@Ed Franceschini - The National Popular Vote bill is 73% of the way to guaranteeing the majority of Electoral College votes and the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country. It would change state winner-take-all laws (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), without changing anything in the Constitution, using the built-in method that the Constitution provides for states to make changes.
It requires enacting states with 270 electoral votes to award their electoral votes to the winner of the most national popular votes.
All voters would be valued equally in presidential elections, no matter where they live.
Stop blaming Democrats as the sole source of those 2016 surprises. Two of the most impactful events directly or indirectly resulted from GOP actions ... and were so closely to the date of the election itself that they likely made the 77,000 vote difference. First, the Russian election interference was kept from America's voters by the GOP demand it be a secret, favoring their candidate as it did. Second, Comey's trashing of Hillary a week before the election was an unjustifiable breach of FBI rules which still lacks a cogent explanation, a conclusion made even more compelling because nothing of substance ever arose nor was likely to arise from his last minute "investigation" of already well aired facts and ceaseless, hysterical GOP accusations.
The GOP party apparatus still is so proud of its election tactics. History will not be kind.
8
@D. Lebedeff,
I certainly hope history isn’t kind, but remember, history is written by the winners.
2
Unlike Mr. Bouie, I predicted Trump would “win” the 2016 election; it was not because I wanted him to. My prediction is he will win again in 2020. The media is diminishing the power and influence of Trump supporters, in favor of touting the strength and qualifications of his political opponents. This approach lulls us into a false sense of optimism about “good” prevailing over “evil” at the polls. What the thinking public needs to hear is: “be very afraid because if you don’t mobilize, history will repeat itself.”
4
Geez, Mr. Bouie. Talk about wishful thinking! I'm a Democrat, and I will vote for whoever the Democratic candidate is--but I still fear that Trump will cruise to re-election in 2020. Why? Several reasons:
1. Trump has 63 million voters who WILL vote for him again, without question. It doesn't matter that Trump has done NOTHING to improve the country. His voters BELIEVE that he has. Trumpism is a cult, and they have drunk the Kool-Aid.
2. Trump knows he does not have to win the whole country. Some states will always be "blue" (California, New York, etc.), so Trump will ignore them. Some states will always be "red" (Texas, Arizona, etc.), so Trump will make token appearances there to shore up his base. What he really needs for re-election is to win the "battleground" states he took in 2016--Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. If he takes them again in 2020, he WILL be re-elected.
3. No matter who the Democrats nominate, Trump can defeat them with a simple strategy: Democrat = Socialist = Communist = The End of America. Trump's approach is the politics of fear. Paint the Democrats as "the other" and voters will flock to Der Trumpenfuhrer.
4. For too many Americans, nothing is "real" unless they see it on TV. Trump is a creature of television. He is both the master and the slave of FOX News.
5. The popular vote DOES NOT MATTER. The Electoral College elects the President. Republicans dominate it, and they intend to keep it that way.
9
@Jack Connolly
Those 63 million voters were not all Trump supporters. they just cast their vote in protest, period. Most of those will not vote for him again. In addition, many of my Republican friends have already declared they will never vote for Trump again. They are completely disgusted with him.
So it will be a lot less votes for Trump this time around.
As far as the Electoral College is concerned, those four States are being paid attention to by every Democratic Candidate, unlike Hilary who took those States for granted.
They once were firmly Democratic households and could be again.
Everything is up in the air as of now. 63 million votes included.
1
NBC News reported in August 2014, Obama’s approval rating was at an all time low of 40%- you conveniently forgot to mention his approval rating at that time was lower than Trump’s.
1
People who voted for Trump the first time will vote for him again. Their mindset, morals, political persuasion will not change.
So, Democrats - GOTV - and increase numbers, lots and lots of numbers. Those people who sat at home, who would have voted Democrat, stayed home on November 8, 2016. Shame on them, but let us even provide them with a ride to their polling place on November 3, 2020 - if need be in our own cars!
3
I would like to see all of the Democratic candidates for President meet in a private room and hammer out the top 3-4 issues that they will adhere to talk about while campaigning. Repeating these issues as talking points that the Republicans seem so good at doing. They should in unison refer to Trump as the unindicted co-conspirator or the tax avoider, both of which are factual labels. The number one issue is getting rid of Trump. Trump is known for his derogatory nicknames. The Trump name has to be prefaced or suffixed with a nickname, like "crooked", "lazy", or "mean", something that is used consistently by every Dem. candidate. It will drive him crazy and the public will inculcate it into their psyche. And by the way, this concept that if the economy is good, it is a win for Trump. False and easy to refute, Trump inherited the economic conditions from Obama ( who helped prevent a financial catastrophe ) and Trump has created record breaking deficits with his only economic input, a tax break for the rich.
1
There's a reason why the majority of Americans voted for someone other than Donald Trump.
And we're seeing it all unfold before us now.
Unfortunately, that doesn't mean that he can't be reelected.
Not only because during his time in the White House he has managed to consolidate all the racists, anti-Semites, homophobes, sexists, white nationalists and haters into one giant rabid support base with promises of riches and making American great again -- But because he's got Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate, the Justice Department, and the Supreme Court, the Electoral College, conservative industrialists, Citizen's United and Russian cyber-bandits on his side to help him along just like they did in 2016.
It also doesn't help that there's some 20-odd Democrats reaching for the brass ring while fighting amongst themselves to reach it, and at the moment it all looks like open season for a circular firing squad.
In the meantime, have no fear.
If Mike Pompeo and John Bolton have their way, we may up in a nuclear war with Iran before Election Day.
Sadly, that might be the only way to stop the inevitable reelection of Donald Trump from happening.
4
The missing link is that racism and sexism are private dirty secrets. That's what throws the polls off-and when you add in Russian election interference and gerrymandering and voter suppression, and democratic candidates, and columnists, attacking the blue slate- we can't take anything for granted. Not. At. All.
2
Healthcare, the border, Iran, trade, relations with allies, all in crisis, all in worse shape than when Trump took over. and all with no solution in sight. Destined for the dustbin: the economy, NK, climate.
Re-electing Trump would be like doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result.
Dems can do this. All they have to do is show up. Be prepared for the trash talking and Biden bashing (or whoever it is) and keep your minds on the task at hand.
No more Trump!
3
When you see the constant cloud of corruption that permeates this Administration, the steady message of divisiveness that Trump fog horn blasts through twitter and his rallies, Trumps total disregard for the environment, his ability to lie, distort, and mislead on almost everything and your conclusion is that this man has a good chance for a second term, then your comments should really focus on the sickness that pervades our country and the moral erosion of the Republican Party who now whole hardily supports the monstrosity named Trump.
1
Personality matters in a marriage partner or minister. Not a surgeon or baseball pitcher. Or president.
1
As a pragmatist - here are my 2 cents:
Mr. Boule’s OpEd can essentially be summarized by a succinct sound bite from Bill Clinton’s presidential campaigns: “It’s the economy stupid”.
Furthermore, if the economy remains robust for the 2020 election, one of Trump’s extremely hyperbolic statements during his 2016 campaign may also remain relevant: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and wouldn’t lose any voters, okay?”
Trump is a Presidential enigma in our political history. Notwithstanding his bloviating buffoonery, he is a formidable marketing genius specially through his social media savvy messaging which is an admixture of economic populism, ethnocentric xenophobia towards emerging diversity and exhibitionistic displays of his ostensible wealth: ornate penthouses, golf courses, private planes yada yada yada.
In other words, he tries to seduce disadvantaged voters through his celebrityhood by being the “King of Kitsch” straight out of the old TV show: “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous”. Trump is selling the 1950s and early 1960s lifestyles analogous to the ones portrayed in shows like “Ozzie and Harriet”. The “Dog Whistle” is the maintenance of ethnic homogeneity and a pushback against progressive plurality. Trump’s opponents are dismissed as “Deep State Conspirators” in a fit of paranoia. It’s PROPAGANDA 101.
However, if the economy remains strong, the “Vox Populi” MAY ignore Trump’s divisive demagoguery - scary possibility but true.
August 2014 -NBC News- Obama’s approval rating hits new low at 40% - 6 out of 10 Americans are dissatisfied with the US economy - 80% of Americans are disillusioned with the state Of US politics - only 14% of Americans are satisfied with Congress.
It’s interesting how the author can spin the facts to suit his article. It’s very disappointing to see such subjective journalism telling only one side of the story. The above facts are just a glimpse of the truth - compare those numbers to Trumps - allow your readers to come to their own conclusions.
1
@JMS This is an opinion piece, not a news article, and the author is free to interpret facts and draw conclusions. You disagree with him. Fine. But the odd thing here is that he thinks it will be very tough to beat Trump, and I would think that would please you.
@hark
I didn’t vote for Trump in the last election and I won’t be voting for him in the next election - I expect reporters, even opinion writers to provide the facts when they’re giving an opinion.
Not to omit facts or distort them. The author did just that to make his point - the reason he’s going to be difficult to defeat is because you have equally moronic politicians running against him (Sanders, Warren and Co).
While Trump is unpopular in the eyes of the public at large, he still remains wildly popular with his base. They will come out and vote for him in 2020 no matter what. There's a lot of energy on the other side, to be sure; but if you factor in the inevitable foreign interference, voter suppression, and the possibility that it rains on the first Tuesday of November - then his odds increase quite a bit. Also, I learned in 2004 never to underestimate the idiocy of the American electorate.
2
Will American Make Trump Great Again?
Nope.
There is nothing great about Trump, other than his ability to lie and grift greatly.
2
They do underestimate him, and the Democrats have got to wake up and use much tougher tactics to make their points. They have got to stop giving the appearance of weakness and disagreement. Stop being civil to Republicans; make it clear you will NOT negotiate with them. You can't negotiate right vs. wrong. Pelosi is the worst, as she fails to attack tRump, and every frightening, faulty step he takes. Insult him, make fun of him, show how wrong he is, about virtually everything except the foibles of his "base." But THEY are only about 35% of our population! The country is more progressive than the Democratic Party! Stop fighting among yourselves. C'mon!
Your headline will be true Mr Bouie if the democrats nominate an identity obsessed, social engineering, east coast liberal, elect me present because I am not Trump and a woman and my time of anointment is due and the era of the white man is over, never met a war, Wall Street banker, trade agreement I did not like candidate like Hillary.
Nominate a moderate progressive that a majority of all Americans are for and the democrats will all but win all three branches.
The decision is yours Mr Bouie and the democrat voters.
Learn from history or be prepared to suffer its worst consequences.
1
If he loses, he'll claim fraud ('millions of illegal aliens voted'), the GOP will echo it, and he'll stay put. And don't expect him gone after 2024 either. The GOP will back whatever he does; the courts have no army, and he is commander-in-chief (so the military won't stop him either).
It's way too early to gaze into the crystal ball and decide which Democratic presidential wannabee gets to square off against Donald Trump next year. Polls and debates mean absolutely nothing at this stage of the game. There's an old saying that might fit this situation: Figures don't lie but liars can figure.
Incumbents with good economies always have won reelection. Nobody has shone a convincing argument why this time will be different.
In 2016, 75,000 Michiganders did NOT vote for President. They opted to skip that section of their ballot entirely. Trump carried this state by 11,000 votes. How can you poll for that?
2
@H. G., but did they, though? Is there a paper trail, an audit?
Trump didn't win. He came in second. He's in the White House largely because so many people didn't bother to vote. A smaller group amused themselves by throwing their votes away on third party spoilers. I think we can also give James Comey some credit for the ghastly outcome of the 2016 election. Things, God willing, are now different. That said, if Trump manages to turn another loss into four more years because anyone felt "unrepresented" by the Dem nominee, or, was not sufficiently "encouraged" to get out to vote; then, they will deserve whatever they get. Yes, the Electoral College is a useless anachronism. We in more populous states are woefully under-represented because of an over 100-year-old law that caps House membership at 435. Still, most of the time the majority select the President. Getting the vote out will be critical.
5
The day before the election, fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver's site, which I regard as the most reliable source of electoral information, had Clinton's odds of winning at only about 2:1, that is, about the same as rolling a 1, 2, 3, or 4 on a six-sided die. Trump's chances, according to that site, were the same as rolling a 5 or a 6.
These are not the overwhelming odds that many people were thinking. They thought Clinton had a "lock" on the election, and so many felt free to stay home or vote third party or cast a write-in vote for Sanders (for example).
That was all it took.
These people were misled by sources that were publishing inadequately-researched information on what the polls were telling us, unlike the very careful analysis of Nate Silver and his colleagues. Even the New York Times was not careful about this.
Hopefully, people will have the sense to pay no attention to what they think the polls are saying in 2020, and vote, and vote for whomever the Democratic candidate is. No third party, no write-ins, no protest vote, no stay-at-homes.
16
@Old Mountain Man Yes, I remember that well. I remember going to Nate Silver for a last minute analysis and came away with a queasy feeling in my stomach. This was not going to be the easy victory for Hillary that the media had been trumpeting. Nate had it right, but so should the media. It was right there in the data.
I was on my way to lunch with a friend the Friday comey came out with his destruction of Hillary press conference. I got the queasy stomach you describe; right then I suspected she could lose. When Hillary squandered precious time hanging out in Florida with Beyonce instead of dashing through the only four states that matter, I began to be sicker. The sorrow I felt the morning after was akin to the loss of a friend.
Caution well taken, but two things - first, it's early. second - Democrats stayed home or voted Sanders in 2016, and independents made protest votes, on the assumption that Clinton was a lock because Trump was such a bad idea. They won't do that in 2020, especially now that Trump has PROVEN he's a bad idea. And we might as well add a third - this election will see voters voting for the first time who were born AFTER 2000, and after 9-11. The mix is changing.
6
In a debt based economy, he who controls the money, controls the economy, Trump and his administration control the money. We have seen this before in the George W. Bush Presidency, huge unnecessary deficits supporting massive government hiring for military welfare and irresponsible lending. Gambling away the future for political gain, it didn’t work out so well for the common man but fantastically for the wealthy.
4
America did make Trump great again when many of us sent messages to Trump through our comments that his courage in ignoring the Washington war mongering crowd from pushing him into a new regime change war will be prudent and sensible.
There will come a time when the linkage between the exceptional greatness of America during the Trump years in the white house with the Trump presidency will be intertwined. When one lists the many good accomplishments during the Trump years and including the evil that did not happen during his presidency his ability to win reelection will be more likely than not.
2
@Girish Kotwal
It would be interesting to know what would be on that list of Trump's "many good accomplishments" -- because quite honestly, I find it hard to think of one.
10
@Girish Kotwal Start naming the "accomplishments" - please. Start with "dividing the country" and work from there.
1
Gobsmacked in 2016 and gobsmacked again in 2020? That's one heckuva thought. But Mr. Bouie's caution is well taken. Let's hope that it doesn't happen and work hard to make sure that it doesn't happen.
Unite and make November 3, 2020 a day of reckoning for The Republican President, his Mitch McConnell and his Republican Party.
10
All of the presidents or candidates who won coming from behind did so by reaching out beyond their base.
Trump is unwilling to even consider this.
His only path to victory then is low voter turn-out.
But the midterms have shown that democratic voters and those leaving towards democrats are highly motivated.
The high turn-out will sink his re-election.
10
Make no mistake; it is his to lose.
So far it does not seem that there is anything that will precipitate a change. He rides the wave of our times, he did not create it.
We are neither ready nor willing to change our ways. High time the blame for that stops being laid at his feet. For sure there is blame but not in that manner.
@Jay. Don't call it yet. A lot of voters did NOT vote for Clinton in 2016, either staying home or protest voting because they thought she was a lock without them. That won't happen in 2020. The turnout will be more like 2018 than 2016. Big turnouts favor democrats.
2
There is no such thing as conventional wisdom when it comes to DJT. Even the economy is a bit player. Outside of a handful...and I mean a handful...of true Independents, no one is changing their vote between now and election day. It's The Donald v. The Democrat. It will come down to enthusiasm. And that's why The Democrat will lose. Because the election is so intensely personal, everything the dems throw at trump they by association thrown at his supporters. They tried this in '16 and it resulted in a far larger enthusiasm bump to DJTs base than the bump it may have given democratic loyalists. Dems seem to be betting that the math will work differently in '20. Then again...they have no choice. But the alternative...not attacking Trump personally...won't work either. Those attacks are necessary to motivate the democratic base, and without it they have to win on the merits. Do they really want the '20 GE to be based on the state of the economy? Doubtful. This leaves democrats having to hope for things like ill-conceived wars in order to win. I doubt even most left-leaning voters would think that's worth it. Get ready for 4 more years of The Celebrity President.
@Mike A. I think you forget about all the voters, including Republicans, who are angry and sick about the way Trump behaves. His constant lies. His corruption. His lack of world knowledge and events. His inept and corrupt cabinet and advisors. His pandering to violent dictators as he seeks financial deals for his Trump brand. A Democratic presidential candidate who seems reasonable, civil, knowledgeable and honest is going to beat Trump. Wait and see.
It's hard to campaign on correcting all society's ills under a single remedial theory of everything (i.e. Green New Deal, etc) when there's yet another Middle East war of our choosing pending or in action. There may simply be too many voters who would never admit to voting for Trump in a poll - but given the democratic party's focus right now may end up voting for him. There may also be too many voters who want a universal corrective action theory of progressivism and then forget to vote in November 2020. The 18 to 29 demo of America may simply be too distracted by social media influencers hawking final theories.
2
I too think that it’s quite possible that Trump will win. He’ll win unless the Democrats can nominate a ticket that unites enough of its fractious elements to bring them to the polls in droves or unless there’s a major disaster that demonstrates in no uncertain terms that Trump is unfit to govern.
Democrats in the House should be focusing more passing legislation, popular legislation, legislation that addresses many of the problems that led to persuadable voters turning to a demagogue like Trump. They should, for God’s sake, get an immigration policy preferably one that makes it clear that they are not in favor of “open borders” and that they care about American citizens who lose jobs to cheap imported, easily exploited labor. Most Americans regardless of race, religion or sexual preference work for a living. Focus on their needs, our needs. And please get a unified message, preferably one that can fit on a bumper sticker and that’s not lame.
I fear that the Democrats will continue to do just the opposite. Hopefully the upcoming debates will bring some clarity—maybe even send a dark horse, one with the special combination of charisma, gravitas, experience and hope to the attention of the voters or that one of the front runners will perform in a way which eases some concerns other voters have about them. It could happen but don’t count on it.
4
@Brooklyncowgirl "Democrats should focus more on passing bills...." I take it you haven't heard of the "Legislative graveyard" presided over by "Grim Reaper" (his own term) McConnell? The house has passed 120+ bills that await senate attention; said Grim Reaper has no intention of bringing any of them to the senate floor. That disaster relief bill? Serially blocked by grand-standing Rep. senators. Immigration? There was a bi-partisan immigration bill, vetoed by tRump, leading to the last government shut-down. Sure, ther's room to criticize the Dems. but at least make it informed and based on reality.
5
@Brooklyncowgirl
"major disaster?"
Do we need more evidence?
@Brooklyncowgirl The House is passing legislation at a healthy pace, including appropriations bills and legislation to raise the government's debt limit. Most seems not to be getting considered by the Senate. In the case of the essential budget and appropriations legislation, negotiations between the Senate leadership and White House seem to be stalemated, so a last-minute rush is looking unavoidable. We might even have the first-ever default.
Trump is running effectively unopposed in the Republican primary. I doubt that this would be the case, if there were convincing evidence he could not win. Possibly potential opponents worry more about holding on to the Senate - or at least their own primaries - than to the Presidency and so support Trump. However, even this should be a concern to the Democrats. To be effective, they need (at least) to make inroads in the Senate.
2
@Rolfe Of often is a sitting President genuinely challenged in their party's primary though? That's not indicative of very much, that the GOP is sticking with their incumbent.
2
When I watched a woman at the recent Trump Orlando rally say she likes Trump, because he tells the truth, I realized that, like lead in the food chain of ancient Roman, the chemicals in our air, water and food have affected people's ability to think. When environmental pollution is coupled with the mentally debilitating financial stress experienced by many Americans from the deregulation of financial and economic protections by Congress you have a very large number of Americans who have lost the ability to reason and think straight. How else can one explain Trump's success with selling MAGA hats and his brand of government to about 42% of Americans. Hey, I am just trying to make sense of all the craziness.
17
@old soldier It's not craziness. It is just hard to construct a rational explanation for irrational actions. I find it difficult to blame voters for failing to see through Trump.
Too many of Trump's supporters are hardworking Americans who could tell you that politicians have made them feel invisible if not unwanted. Trump's rallies and style appealed to them. Trump spoke directly to them in words they understood even if they knew deep down that Trump could not be trusted. They saw Trump riding a wave of voters just like themselves. Trump eked out a narrow victory in the Electoral College. He won by a total of just a bit less than 78,000. That is not a strong position.
Mr. Bouie is right to be concerned. If the Democratic Party nominates another neoliberal candidate who makes those voters feel invisible, if not unwanted, we Democrats can be gobsmacked again in 2020. If we fail to tie The Republican President to his Mitch McConnell and his Republican Party we'll have another six years of obstruction.
See you at the polls on November 3, 2020.
5
@old soldier. Old soldier. I enjoyed reading your words. Keep talking out. I will too.
@OldBoatMan UNLIKE YOU I blame every voter - every person in the US who is not objecting to Trump’s autocratic behavior. Trump is a menace to our existence as a democracy. If we do not blame ourselves for closing our eyes to his foul personal behavior, lack of civil decorum, ignoring the rule of law, creation of Denton camps, and war mongering, who are we going to blame. Educate the hardworking Americans you speak of by raising your voice to anyone who will listen. Our words, and woefully our votes are our only weapons!
Mr. Bouie makes a strong case here for the sort of fundamental that in recent years has been determinant. However, he fails to mention one thing, perhaps because it is a little like predicting precisely where a tornado will set down and that is the current inverted yield curve in the bond market where short term rates which normally lag long terms rates instead eclipse them. It has in recent times always preceded a recession by 12 to 18 months. Should the recession land at 13-16 months in the summer of 2020, Trump should be toast. If it takes 18 months to land in October, it will probably be at most a lesser October Surprise, maybe too late to matter, but in a close race, if framed by Democrats as the harsh winter to come, could be just enough to bring in the Rust Belt states where this election will likely be fought.
2
@G. James I believe the longest economic expansion in modern history was eleven years. Those eleven years included WWII. Unless our current recovery eclipses that record, Trump will be running during a recession.
However, that is not enough. The Democratic candidate must have a credible economic agenda and be persuasive. Democrats must unite.
1
Democrats need to take the facade of a good economy away from Trump. What has he done to help it? Not one thing. Instead, he's been riding Obama's coattails on unemployment and jobs and growth, and has gotten the debt into a catastrophic mess with this give away to his rich buddies tax bill. It should be easy to unmantle him as the economic savior.
Combine that with a push toward universal healthcare, disengagement from unwarranted and lethally aggressive wars in the Middle East, and a reestablishment of our global standing, and you have the magic formula of getting him out of office.
All the Democrats need to do is to align on these issues and stop beating each other up with self-defeating internecine quibbles. Pare the Democratic field down to the essential candidate, the single one who will carry the Democratic banner forward. Stop letting the county see the fragmentation and circular firing squad infighting that is damaging the party's credibility.
Focus on removing Trump by showing the sham of his policies and the destruction of American values he represents. Then show the country the better path toward American enlightenment, a political world without the electoral blunder that was Trump.
8
@Max Dither,
I agree in theory with your cogent argument. However, as I read your astute comment, I can’t avoid a ‘ yes, but . . . ‘ thought. Yes, but that would require a majority of voters who are willing to parse language more complex than a four-word jingoistic phrase.
Perhaps this reflects Pelosi's end game viz impeachment: wait for 2020 and if Trump loses, impeachment becomes moot (and then it's time for Trump to face criminal consequences); if Trump wins, then begin impeachment.
The only problem as I see it is that if the Senate flips, but not by enough to get 67 Democrats, or if the Senate doesn't flip, then we're stuck with Trump until 2024 (unless his shenanigans continue).
@Peter Hornbein. You can't get 67 more democrats in the Senate - not everyone is running. Democrats need the presidency and the house.
@Brookhawk
But without the Senate - or more specifically - with McConnell still in charge of the Senate, we're not really much better off.
2
Why in the world do you think there will be a fair election in 2020? Putin has invested a lot in getting this president* installed. He has no choice but to do everything necessary to keep him in place; and that means hacking the vote if necessary. McConnell has blocked all efforts to secure our elections. Contrary to all polls which will say we can't stand Trump, he will mysteriously win just enough electoral college votes in all the right places to win again. Count on it.
7
I believe the surest way of defeating Trump is to persuade enough of his staunch supporters that he has NOT kept his promises. Trump promised a tax cut that favored the middle class. He said that over and over again and even talked about how his tax plan would hurt people like him. Of course the tax plan did not favor the middle class but did give people like Trump and big tax cut. He promised that he would build "the wall" and Mexico would pay for it. Only a small portion of the wall has been built and Mexico has not and will not pay for it. He promised to drain the swamp and hire the best people; instead he has created a swamp of lobbyists and others of dubious character and qualifications. One has only to point to the list of those charged with or convicted of crimes. The list goes on.
The point is that Trump supporters need to be confronted with the wretchedly poor job Trump has done. The question is, who is best qualified to do this? Who will the Trump supporters believe? I wish I knew the answer to those questions.
3
Never underestimate the ability of Democrats and their progressive supporters to undermine themselves. They'll do so with the pettiest of grievances. They'll do so with the most holier-than-thou entitlement. We all know that given all, Trumpy should lose badly. But then, he never should have won in the first place. So, while Trumpy may not 'win', there's the traditional likelihood that whomever the Democrats finally decide to represent them (through a traditional process called voting), may lose.
7
I think Nancy Pelosi is being properly cautious about not rushing into impeachment proceedings. It's not that Trump isn't a prime candidate for impeachment - he is - it's because without strong Republican support the divisions within this country would become even worse.
2
Only 31 percent of the American public was for the impeachment of Nixon when the Watergate hearings began, but by the time they were over, after Americans had been educated on his corruption and criminality, the public AND Congress and even Nixon himself (who then quit) were convinced.
As such, I can only conclude that Pelosi’s insistence on holding off on impeachment proceedings until a majority of Americans are in favor of it is some sort of excuse or feint. She’s savvy and experienced, yes, but I sure hope she knows what she’s doing!
1
Trump blames his low poll numbers on the 'witch hunt'. You point out, correctly, that the economy holds the key to his 2nd term success or failure. And that his policies may determine how the economy fares, thus the likelihood of election success. But it is others, mainly out of his control, who hold the entire deck of cards. Will the Chinese cave? Or will Xi simply be willing to stay the course , watch Trump fail, and hope for a better deal with the next president? Will Powell cave to Trump's demands to shore up the economy not for the benefit of the economy, but for his electoral success? Will Mexico do as instructed? Or go through the motions to get rid of the big thorn in their side? Will Europe's economy help to drag down America's to get rid of Trump? For Trump, giving farmers some government assistance or demanding a company play ball with him to shore up his base may do nothing long term for the economy, but it may help him win. The question is are all the other players here mentioned be willing to take one for the team to get things back to a more sane and predictable state? Or are they thirsty for more of Trump?
3
The “if” part of this argument (i.e., that if the economy continues to grow, Trump will win) is a pretty big “if”. There’s a recession coming for us like a freight train, it’s just a question of when it will hit us. Funny enough, it looks like Trump’s trade war is adding coal to the recession train’s engine...
3
The usually astute Jamelle’s emphasis on so-called economic strength omits an important perspective, namely, the coalition that propelled Obama to the White House: women, black Americans, and youth.
In the crucial voting bloc of citizens over age 55, women outnumber men. Women alone are enough to tip the scales in favor of the Democratic candidate, a trend to which the current polls attest.
The emperor has no clothes.
Trump is going down.
6
Not likely, trump will win again like he won the last time. Wear down the Republican opposition. Which is what will happen to the 22 Democratic candidates, destroy anyone who might could actually win.
The cards are stacked against the Democrats.
Too many people running in the primary. Democrats will destroy each other.
Gerrymandering.
Citizens United.
Voter restriction.
Not equal representation. Smaller states wield more influence than larger states.
And finally the Electoral College.
He may be down in the polls, but so was trump.
3
@esp Obama faced the same structural issues and won.
On the economy, the numbers ignore major issues of rising inequality, stagnant wages, job insecurity, rising costs of key needs like housing and healthcare and so much more. The only way the Dems can win is to address these with real solutions and policy innovations, and as you suggest here unite. Else the lure of authoritarianism, the promise of a bully on their side, will continue as false promise to the aggrieved entitlement and fears of the MAGA voters... That's what the Dems need to fight...
3
@sue denim...Bring it up with Mitch McConnell.
The economy may be doing better using aggregate measures like the GDP; however, the middle and the lower classes are certainly not better off if one also includes measures like how many jobs they work to make the ends meet. So long as we allow the big companies to operate in a runaway capitalist system, the disparity between the ultra-rich and the very poor will keep growing. The fundamental thing missing from society is the growing lack of concern over the country's wellbeing. When the reporters announce from various locales that "for people in this county, the Russian or foreign interference does not matter" I cringe. Why have we lost the one core idea that cut across the party lines, the wellbeing of the country? This is not a spectator sport, parties should clash for ideas to bring the best to the nation rather than to serve the rich and score another point for their party.
4
Not much faith in the Democratic Party any more; sure they want to be rid of Trump since before the Inauguration of 2017, and so we have presently Pelosi et.al. fumbling around with their heads in the sand playing Hamlet when there were guidelines for impeachment clearly set forth by Muller; we have a massive illegal immigration problem at the border yet Pelosi will give not a dime to help Trump fix the problem.
How can we trust Democrats to do anything for the urgent problems we face when they are in denial.
Might as well keep Trump in office; he at least recognizes the problems even if he doesn’t manage to fix anything.
Still the Democratic candidates are promising to be Santa Claus to everyone.
At least Oprah only handed out a car to each guest, sounds a lot cheaper that lifelong dependency for all.
4
The question that that this piece doesn’t address is voter turnout in response to Trump’s bullying and blatant disregard of the very principles that we have claimed make democracy a superior form of government. It seems pretty clear that the forces opposing Trump are more likely to stand together than they did in 2016, but more is needed. Trump’s inelastic base cannot prevail against a strong nationwide turnout of protest voters. Regardless of the state of the economy, young voters need to see this moment as their Vietnam. It’s their lives and the lives of their children that they need to defend. They are the ones saddled with debt, paying private school tuition fees for daycare, and working unbenefitted gig-economy jobs. All this while facing the threats of climate change. It’s their moment. They need to seize it.
7
Enough already about the strong economy. It is only strong for the 10 percent, if that; I don't see teachers and nurses and other similar professionals, and non-professionals, with money to burn.
22
Points schmoints! When it matters, states vote, not individuals. Polls are deceptive. What use is it for a democratic candidate to be up 10 points in NY or CA? All it takes to win their Electoral Colleges is a handful of votes, not a million. Of course statistics don't predict the future, but insurance companies and "turf accountants" make their money by knowing the stats. And the stats say that a sitting POTUS is re-elected when the economy looks good, and the voters think they have it better now than four years ago. My warning now is the same as it was in 2015 and 2016: whoever the Democratic candidate may be--s/he'll have a steep hill to climb. Then it was because of the Damocles stat that said voters do not give the White House to two Democrats in succession--unless one had died in office (FDR, JFK). And the task for Democrats now is as it was in 2016--to convince non-voters to vote, and to convince single-issue and vanity voters that democracy is not a beauty contest.
4
I wish liberal pundits would quit waxing on about the “strong economy.”
If you are in the top 0.1 percent it’s fair to say the economy is going gangbusters, and it’s probably pretty darn good for the tier under that. But while the top of the house is reaping millions, the bottom has precious little to show from an economy Trump calls “the greatest in U.S. history.” The overwhelming majority of Americans saw very little from the tax bill, and what little they did see is starting to get eaten up with higher prices resulting from his tariffs. And at least fifty percent of Americans remain underwater, with debts exceeding their assets, and without so much as $400 to tap into in case of an emergency.
Given all that, I do wish liberal pundits would temper their assessments of the current economy with an acknowledgement of how unevenly its benefits have fallen. If Democrats are to win in 2020, hammering home how little most Americans have reaped from the “greatest economy in history” will be the way they do it.
16
I think you are right, sir.
The inequality, racism, and xenophobia that proved a vital breeding ground for Trumpism have not gone away. Trump himself has certainly seen to that. He has encouraged and enacted policies that made these conditions worse.
And indeed, it is crucial to remember: even if Trump is defeated, Trumpism is not. The racism, inequality, xenophobia, they are all still there.
If he is defeated it will be from the ground up, working hard to change attitudes at the level of the street. And if he wins? Same thing.
Either way, there is hard work ahead.
89
I owned a small business prior to the Great Recession. I foresaw the economy slowing, so much so, that I sold that business in 2006. I see the same signs now. For the average American, many working in the "gig" economy, ends are getting harder and harder to meet. Basic utility costs, school registration expenses and college tuitions, local taxes, all the little things are rising with little boost in wages. People aren't spending as much and foreclosures are again creeping up in certain parts of the country. It's happening again. This time on the back of a broken government that may never be fixed.
14
The principle “winning the elections on the centre” does not apply any more but some of us we have lived in those therms for so long that is a thinking hard to overcome. People, all of us, absolutely all of us, have got a phone and immediate acces to (right and wrong) information. I think it is the game changer. Very particular interest wins over general ones and they are very motivational.. the turn out increases between people who never had been in the “general frame”. That is good for dems. Finally. A woman! Nobody knows the output but it is clear that it will be in women’s hands.
3
@Mctama: You think facts determine an election? If they do, it's more the fact of what people feel, not what they know.
1
Everyone was sure that Trump would lose in 2016. Now everyone is sure that Trump will lose in 2020.
6
No. But the question is will the world he invites to interfere with our election once again prove to be his savior. We have no financial borders since the 2010 SCOTUS misleadingly named "Citizens United" (AKA corporate personhood and money as free speech). And Zuckerberg's Facebook is a menacing target. If we want a fair election we should be all over the way Trump plays down and dirty, willing to violate all rules to win.
4
The short form of "America Make Trump Great Again", AMTGA, doesn't look that appealing. But if Trump gets reelected, it will be true and it looks likely.
1
That only 53% of Americans disapprove of Trump's performance is a very depressing statistic.
I've given up hope that an unbeatable majority of Americans care about the health of our democracy. There doesn't even seem to be a strong mandate for caring about the mental health of this President.
It seems I am down to rooting for a recession before November 2020 in order to stop our continued decent into Trumpian madness and authoritarianism.
On the upside, that I still hope it is a small recession makes me an optimist.
6
The worst thing Democrats can do is become self-assured about defeating Trump next year. It won't be easy. Keep up the good fight!
6
A classic restatement of the obvious. Mr. Bouie would probably be well-served to return to the tabloids such as Slate and Politico where he was a luminary. Here he’s simply embarrassing.
1
I totally agree with you, Mr. Bouie. The man COULD win again. Easy as pie.
You adduce statistics from the '80's (Reagan)--from the '90's (Clinton)--from the early 2000's (Bush). Very relevant. Not to say disquieting. Dear me, yes.
But remember Lincoln's despairing words from the summer of 1864. The glories of Gettysburg far behind him. See if I can't remember the wording:
"Today, as for some weeks past, it has seemed increasingly probable this administration will not be reelected. In that case, it will be incumbent upon the President so to cooperate with the winner as to preserve the Union between election day and his inauguration, as he will have secured his election upon such terms as he cannot possibly preserve it afterwards."
Typical prose for Abraham Lincoln. Precise--nuanced--complex.
His "polls"--they weren't good.
And election day 1864 rolled round.
A triumphant reelection for Mr. Abraham Lincoln.
Thank God!
BUT--
--November, 2020 is long ways off. Mr. Trump has formally begun his reelection campaign. The money is flowing in. The supporters are riled--rarin' to go.
Loud scream of "Lock her up!"--my goodness, Mr. Bouie, when the wind is right, I can hear them all the way down in Orlando.
(I KNEW I shoulda got those earplugs.)
Of course (like you) I hope--I pray--this man does NOT get reelected.
We needed Lincoln back in 1864. And Mr. Trump--
--I can do without him.
We can ALL do without him.
Hopefully we will.
3
Perhaps the greatest unknown for 2020 is the anger that the theocratic republicans and their leader djt have created in the women in this country. They are the marchers, the organizers, the aggrieved, the voters. They can keep the darkness of the republican party away from our shining democracy. Without them, we will continue down a path of self destruction.
7
The Democrats have got to decide who will be most likely to remove trump and get all in behind him/her.
I am hoping it is Elizabeth Warren who finally gathers the required support to erase this scourge. However, anything can happen in a year and a half. Doesn't look like impeachment will do it unfortunately.
3
It's all on the Democrats. If they run another incredibly incompetent campaign with a Trump like narcissist at the top of the ticket and engage in the worst ground game in modern memory (as was the case with Hillary Clinton) they indeed will lose again.
And if that happens, will there be free and fair elections in 2022 and thereafter?
It's all on the Democrats.
4
The night before the 2016 presidential election, I was depressed because I thought Hillary Clinton would win. The night of the 2016 presidential election, I was even more depressed when she didn't.
Democrats are obviously counting on President Trump to lose. Instead, they should focus on trying to win.
One piece of advice: Never predict the future, especially on the World Wide Web. Doing so is a recipe for making a fool of oneself.
2
I completely agree with this cautionary column. The Democrats seem to think they have the 2020 election in the bag, but they thought that in 2016 as well (and how did Al Gore lose to who would turn out to be the second-worst president ever? [Trump having taken over the #1 spot] in 2000?). I'm surprised Mr. Bouie didn't mention, "It's the economy stupid." Perhaps that means "nothing will change"-Biden should be the Democrat nominee.
The Democrats need to be smart. We know many white voters don't want another African-American president. We know many men (and women apparently) don't want a woman president. We know homophobia (sometimes under the guise of religious belief) will cause many people not to vote for a gay candidate. And yet the best candidates (judging at this early date) are the gay, female, and female/African American candidate (referring to Buttigieg, Warren, and Harris, respectively). Bernie would have to overcome Antisemitism, anti-socialism, and ageism (despite Trump also being in his 70's).
Then there is the fact of Russian or other foreign entities trying to sway the election again, especially since they helped Trump last time so he hasn't had the government take any steps to prevent such influence in 2020.
Because it's a real possibility that Trump could win reelection, Nancy Pelosi should initiate impeachment hearings. It's simply too big a risk to let Trump stay in office.
It's going to be a long 16 months.
3
Biden isn’t in my top three preferred democratic nominees. But when I read a piece like this, I just start to think: we need to pick someone who has the best chance of carrying swing voters in key states (I recognize, not a earth-shatteringly new idea). If Biden is the Democrat that a swing voter in the middle of Pennsylvania will turn out and vote for, then it might be insane to nominate anyone else. We really can’t have four more years of this garbage. There is a big difference between picking the candidate I like best, than trying to pick the one that a swing voter is most likely warm to.
5
Recent Iran action was a very thoughtful move. A statesman like. Next if Donald Trump succeeds to denuclearize Korean peninsula, Nobel prize is waiting for him. Then nobody stop him during 2020 Presidential Election. Three cheers. Keep it up Donald Trump!
2
One should never under estimate Trump's desire to be the center of attention and to remain president. If the Democratic candidates do not focus on policy ideas that uplift the economic prospects of the middle class they may probably lose. Hopefully the Democrats will not shoot themselves in the foot. Trump is a master story teller and the tale that he weaves is very intoxicating to his faithful. There are also interests that want Trump to be re-elected. Also if Senator McConnell is still the majority leader that is a very serious roadblock. The Democratic candidates in Rumsfeld's word , "have a long hard slog" ahead of them. There is a huge swath of America to which the criminal activity of the Trumps and bungling ineptitude of the administration falls on deaf ears. They could care less for as Charles Blow pointed out he is like a folk hero to them. That is the crux of the matter for Trump has brilliantly played his hand . How do you defeat a folk hero? How do you break through the bellicosity of a serial liar? How do you show people that Trump is not in their corner? i guess we shall find out the answers to these questions soon enough.
5
I have one and only one realistic hope left for America. Fix or replace the decrepit voting machines: paper ballot, optical scanner, manual recount. If Roger Stone busts into the room, I'll remove him myself. Any man would, if his ancestors hail from Lexington and Concord and Bunker Hill. I'm referring to all of us.
Diebold, the Electoral College, the gerrymander ... They're all the same, in the end.
3
The Democrats (and some Republicans) have done so much to ruin our country over the last 60 years.
President Trump deserves 4 more years to Make America Great Again! Hopefully we can retake the House in 2020.
5
Trump didn't think he would win in 2016, either. So much for his underestimating of his own chances. He forecasts as poorly as he makes deals. More's the pity.
2
Let's not forget the Senate. The Democrats need to focus on those races, as well the President.
4
Trump is going to win again. Americans are angry at the Democrats and their embarrassing harping about the Mueller Report. They see the empty calls for impeachment and baseless promises for reparations. They are angry that the Democrats stand for open borders and use emotionally-charged images of children as propaganda to flood our country with illegals. People see a vote for Trump as a vote against the scheming narratives and out-of-context reporting the mainstream media has been peddling.
7
There is a old say: The only poll which really matter is the one on voting day.
Yes, James Carville's "It's the economy, stupid" is as reigning a shibboleth as any in modern politics, but based on the Presidential elections of the 21st century, it should probably be amended to "It's the turnout, stupid".
Of course, it's always been about turnout, but now it's about turnout among particular demographics--specifically African American males, new citizens, and 18-29 year-olds.
It's absolutely arguable that Hillary's loss--all due respect third party defections and voter suppression--was due to the much lower African American male turnout in Detroit/Flint/Grand Rapids (MI), Charlotte/the Piedmont (NC), Jacksonville/Tampa Bay/Everglades (FL), Philadelphia/Pittsburgh (PA), and Milwaukee/Racine/Kenosha (WI) in 2016 compared to 2008/12. And youth vote figures in a number of these places, as well as in Iowa, were reduced as well.
Yes, there was a tribal component to the turnout for Obama, and a lot of efforts in red/purple states to keep people from the polls in '16, not to mention social media disinformation. But Democrats should now be working to counter all this--with registration drives, phone trees, carpools, text chains, social media counternarratives, and a ton of lawyers to fight the suppression tactics that will happen from now until November 2020.
The commitment to get out and vote, and fight for that right, is paramount. Vote Blue, No Matter Who--no exceptions, no excuses. If big turnout, Trump is turned out. And that's it.
6
If it’s Bernie, then it’s Bernie. Kampala, then it’s Kampala. Joe, then Joe! Whoever separates him/herself from the herd carrying the D is the person we ALL vote for. Driven Snow isn’t running, so an untimely flare up of acne may put some Democrats off of one candidate or another, but, we’ve seen this movie before. Trump’s people will be out in force. We have the numbers but they don’t matter unless we all show up and put an end to this circus.
2
Trump won because someone, I’m just saying, rigged the election. Who might that be? I wonder?
Is anyone doing anything to prevent it recurring? I wonder.
1
Familiarity breeds contempt. And the dosage with Trump is exceedingly low. I must believe that all but the Evangelicals have grown very weary of his antics. Those that have NOT have proven themselves to be very gullible, the perfect marks. I don’t expect a huge percentage of those that Voted for him in 2016 to switch to Democrats. But I think enough will just stay home, and nap.
VOTE in 2020, Vote for Democrats. Get to Work.
3
"If virtually every Democrat under the sun is running for president, it’s because"...many of the candidates have bloated egos that far outstrip their abilities and their chances of getting the nomination, which are essentially zero."
2
I think Trump may win again. On the one hand I find it difficult to believe that anyone who didn’t vote for him in 2016 will have had their mind changed by 2020. I know his faithful fans will vote for him no matter what but surely, I tell myself, he hasn’t won any new supporters and he must have lost some of those who voted for him first time around? Lots of people hated Hilary enough to vote for Trump. Many could not believe a former Democrat New Yorker would really turn out to be the man we saw ranting at the rallies. Surely those voters would never trust him again? And we have seen many older conservatives write damning editorials about him, surely their opinion carries some weight? And yet, here’s the thing... Trump won the Presidency despite being a recognized liar, woman groper, New York billionaire with absolutely no credentials for governance at all. It is incomprehensible that he won and so I do fear that, all reasonable arguments aside, he can do it again. And too, he has successfully made people more afraid of issues the left champions like immigration reform, maybe scared enough to believe his lies and vote for him. Scared people don’t think well and like candidates that sound very self assured. They may not want an intelligent candidate capable of seeing shades of grey. Whomever the Democrats pick it had better be someone with a strong, credible, positive message that can cut through the fear.
3
@Alexandra Hamilton - Trump has proposed immigration reform - admitting qualified immigrants based on skills, education, and the ability to speak English. Evidently, that's not what they Democrats have in mind.
Oh, pull yourselves together.
Fretting about losing is the best way not to win.
Stop obsessing on nit-picky issues.
Stop worrying that every single person is not going to vote for the Democratic Nominee.
Concentrate on raising the Democratic Nominee up to victory.
1
Anything at this point is merely guessing. If everything else is equal Trump will (?). First we cannot even guess and that is if nothing changes. But things will change in a year. Maybe for the better, maybe for the worse. If the economists are right growth will slow, and the longer these tariff wars continue the less growth there’ll be. Our dispute with China? Solved or still ongoing. If it’s still ongoing then that harms him. Iran? Sliding towards conflict. Immigration? Again who knows. The promised “fantastic” healthcare plan may (and probably will) indeed turn out to be fantasy! A British Prime Minister once said “a week is a long time in politics” . We’ve got nearly 80 weeks to go!
As I recall we were looking At uncontested Hillary vs inevitable Jeb! at this time four years ago!
So so me in a year or so. Although when I asked that great prognosticator my Magic 8 Ball “ Will Trump be re-elected?” It clearly answered: “The signs point to No!”
Multiculturalism tore apart the melting pot. No longer just being Americans, folks learned to see themselves through the lens of their own cultural identity at the expense of the shared identity model the melting pot model offered. Everyone has self-sorted into their respective camps now. And politics has become a no-sum game. Strong tailwinds may push Trump back into the White House despite his many failings.
1
Those who believe Trump is a sure bet to lose had better not be betting their house on that. Trump has not only confounded the "smart" people, he has shown a willingness to game the system and accept help from Russia. And if all else fails, do not put it past him to refuse to step down, especially if there's a war being fought ("I won't leave the American people vulnerable while there's a war going on!"). This is why it's foolhardy for Nancy Pelosi to bank on the election as the "cure" for the cancer of Trump.
Add to this the Democrats ability to "Snatch a loss from the jaws of victory", and winning in 2020 is anything but certain. The fact that they have 23 candidates is a big problem. This isn't youth soccer where everyone gets a "participation trophy", this is high stakes, winner takes all, and they can't afford to have their base fractured by confusion and indecision. The quicker they pare the field down to 4-5 viable candidates, the better.
And most critically, the Democrats have to figure out what the American people want most of all. They completely missed that in 2016 and we wound up with Trump. Is that sentiment still dominant? I believe it is. People are fed up with the System and how things have been done, and they're angry that they continue to lose ground economically while the 1% and Wall St. rack up record profits.
It's astounding that somebody as incompetent as Trump retains the support he does. Never underestimate the ignorance of the voters.
1
Please note: Trump did not win the 2016 election. The GOP waged a war against fair elections to shut-out Democrats and Independents, and--that with Russian assistance--put Trump in the WH. The GOP's tactics: 1-Pass Citizen's United to gain unfettered access to dark money; 2-Flood state races to pick up seats, cut regulations; 3-Gerrymander districts (Operation Red Map); 4-Purge 1.1+M mostly African-Americans from voter rolls in GOP-controlled states ("Crosscheck", KS Sec of State Kobach); 5-Gut the Voting Rights Act and pass onerous voter ID rules targeting poor, the elderly, African Americans, Hispanics; 6-Underfund and close thousands of polling sites in Dem-leaning districts; 7-Intimidate voters and cage votes; 8-Reduce voting poll hrs & days, install broken, non-functioning and fewer machines; 9-Shunt voters to provisional ballots (with no proof votes get counted), and to wrong sites to vote; 10-Legalize methods to prevent votes from being tracked; 11-Fail to secure votes and keep counting methods secret; 12-Employ expensive law suits to contest a recount and actual results in court; 13-Target state judges to remove from office and nullify independent election watchdogs; 14-Strike down legislation to auto-enroll voters when they renew their driver's license; 15-Suppress, refuse, and delay to investigate Russian influence and hacking; 16-Rely on out-of-date insecure voting systems; 17-Promote fake news & assault the press.
2
Polls should be ignored. They have not proven to be trustworthy. Trump voters are too embarrassed to tell pollsters they will be voting for him, so they lie or demur, until it’s too late for all the naive who believe polls are accurate. The demise of Hillary Clinton should be enough to convince anyone of that. Either that, or Democrats should fight as if the polls are saying they’re losing. But they won’t. Instead, they will sit on their laurels and assume that everyone, even Trump voters, will just naturally see their bigly awesomeness. Hubris will be their downfall.
The most deplorable supporters will stay with Trump, but many who voted for him in 2016 decided to take a flyer on the devil they didn't know; they were sure they didn't like Hillary Clinton. But I suspect many of them are as sick of Trump's daily dramas, rages, outrages and corruption as the most fervent Democrats and liberals.
The important thing is for everyone who wants to be rid of Trump to vote, and to vote for the Democratic candidate. Staying home is a vote for Trump. A vote for a third-party candidate is a vote for Trump.
2
It doesn't matter if Trump loses. He'll stay right where he is!
If the election was held next Tuesday, Trump would win. If the election was held November 3, 2020, Trump would still win, regardless of whether he eked it out or it was a landslide. While the Democrats continue to believe in their own fairy tales, the Republicans continue to play by their own playbook, just as they did in 2016. Everything else is just noise. Republicans know that,
Democrats don't. Underestimating your chances to win is the same disingenuous way to paint yourself as an underdog as it was in 2016. Too bad the Dems can't let themselves believe that reality instead of their foolish naivete.
In the 2016 election there were many people who presumed Trump would act presidential once he took office. They were wrong, he has continued in campaign mode which could be called a campaign for fascism and white supremacy. He has also gone back on his promises not to attack social programs. The economy has done well but it would seem that most of the benefits are going to highly educated people, not the working class. Trump has come through for his white supremacist supporters to some extent. Latinos at the border and without documentation in the US have been treated cruelly and the situation seems to be getting worse. There is a Muslim ban although it is not total. No matter what Trump could win by spreading lies, fear, and hate. This shifts voters to the right. Democrats rely more on policies but this strategy lacks the emotional power of lies, fear, and hate. Despite what the polls are now saying I would be concerned that Trump can use flies, fear, and hate to win the election.
36
Trump didn't win. Voter suppression, gerrymandering, hacking, Russian disinformation, and an electoral college created to empower slaveholding states handed him the presidency while Hillary won the popular vote by over 3 million votes more. The electoral college makes people feel their votes don't count anyway so why put out the effort to do that useless thing called voting. The electoral college has given us a depressing, distorted society of chaos and social abuse for all in place of liberty and justice for all, a society of mass ignorance, a new dark age. The fact that Trump could win at all when he in fact did not win means that Trump could always win under any circumstances other than fairness.
185
@freyda. Very well put.
Trump is an illegitimate "president".
His empowering/encouraging the worst among us, worked for the short term, but is a long term disaster waiting to happen.
If we don't have a nuclear war, we might get a civil war, a race war, a holy war, or even a gender war.
The response to any of the above will be a cyber war.
12
@freyda
All due respect, your litany of how "voter suppression, Russia, the Electoral College", etc., put Trump in office echoes the gripes about SCOTUS "appointing" Bush in 2000, how Kerry got "swift-boated" in 2004 and, on the other side, how Obama's "lack of citizenship" should have blocked his eligibility. All of these hollow tropes provide evidence that among the qualities lost in America during the past couple of decades, the inability to absorb election defeat is a great candidate for top of the list.
3
@Maj. Upset SCOTUS *did* appoint W in 2000. Agree that "swift boating," while repellant, was ordinary politics.
8
His base is not enough votes. End of discussion. Whoever motivates those outside his base to go to the polls, wins.
1
You failed your 2016 prediction because you overestimated the probability of a "centrist" victory and underestimated the power of radicalism. If the Democrats make the same mistake again, they will nominate Biden against Trump and almost certainly lose the election - never mind what the polls are predicting right now.
1
In our bifurcated polity, it is possible for Trump to win and for the Democrats to keep the House.
Facing another four years of a chaos presidency, Democrats might very well decide to push ahead with impeachment after Mr. Trump's re-election, even if it would fail in the Senate trial to follow.
It is never too late to do the right thing.
2
We are used to thinking very highly of democracy but if we're completely honest, Trump is what most of us deserve. Voting in an election is a skill. It shouldn't be a random event every four years in a circus environment. And like any skill, it needs to be taught systematically to people. Letting citizens vote without an education is as irresponsible as putting them in charge of the cockpit of a passenger airplane. I don't believe that a narrow few should only ever vote. I do, however, insist that we exponentially increase the number of voters who prior to voting, thought about issues rationally & deeply. We often ignore the distinction between an intellectual democracy & a democracy by birthright. We have given the vote to all without connecting it to that of wisdom. Polls have a margin for error, with politicians selected more times based on voter's emotions than by reason. Our political lives would benefit if voters had a greater awareness of some of the critical economic paradoxes that underpin our society instead of rationalizing their behavior by selecting candidates whose talking points appeal to their biases. The absence of ranked order voting system can lead to misguided preferences of individuals over a community-wide approach to obtain the greater good. Our goal shouldn’t be perfection, we should strive to do the greatest good through the most pardonable inconveniences regardless of political party. Since the greater good is subjective, the circus will continue.
2
I truly believe our democracy is lost and the president (and McConnell) will win again. Why? Because our system is set up to favor small, rural states. In addition--
1. Trump's base will NEVER leave him.
2. Evangelicals ALWAYS vote Republican because of abortion.
3. Talking about reparations at this time hurts the Democrats.
And finally,
4. The democratic leadership has made the calculous that impeachment should be off the table. I think they are wrong and their inaction makes them look timid and complicit. I will still vote for whatever D is on the ticket but how many people will simply stay home because of this decision?
7
"If virtually every Democrat under the sun is running for president......"
Well, I'm a Democrat and not running for president, thus, you're wrong. I know, poetic license.
However, as the famous, oft-parodied and misattributed line of Dragnet's Jack Web character, Joe Friday, stated, 'Just the facts, m'am'.
And that's what's called for here, not some unrealistic notion, like looking at the crowd lining up to compete in the Boston Marathon as if every runner is hoping to win that storied race. We all know there's simply a few to be taken seriously. And that's exactly what we have when it comes to those running for the Democratic nod to defeat Trump in 2020.
Or like continually blaming Congress for the logjams holding up what's needed to get things moving in the right direction, when what we're really witnessing is a Republican Congress holding things up, not its Democrat member and should be described as such. The result of how Mitch McConnell in the Senate in 2008 started blocking "everything Obama", and Paul Ryan in 2010 ridding the Moderates from House seats by getting 67 of 83 Tea Party candidates elected.
We need more honest and specific reporting.
Just look at what Trump has been up to with all those White House lawn-gaggles he's been using to replace time-honored 'Press Briefings', him shuttling himself off to one of his rallies or some other distraction, some other 'whack a mole' instance to take our eyes off what's really going on in our government.
5
He and the GOP did whatever it took to get him in office in 2016 when they didn’t hold the reins; they will do whatever it takes in 2020, and possibly beyond to hold power. This is how democracies die, not necessarily by overt coup but by the steady corruption of institutions, from the exec to a toadying congress and courts and media. Pelosi et al underestimate this at our peril.
5
The “good economy” is a debt-fueled mirage. We have low interest rates at the point of a gun, meaning as long as we have a dominant military we can continue to expand the debt, effectively extracting tribute from investors in that debt. Trump seems to recognize this (at least instinctively) and publicly browbeats the fed for lower interest rates.
The house of cards will collapse when energy prices spike, triggering war in the Middle East and surging interest rates. With $20 trillion in debt, normalized interest rates will quickly make debt service impossible. Add escalating global warming and the consequent refugee crises and we’re likely to have some chaos toward the middle of the century.
Nevertheless, Trump knows he’ll win as long as the wheels stay on through the 2020 election. Who knows? We could have another 20 years.
If Republicans can maintain the illusion of a great economy, Trump will be re-elected. People don’t want to hear about income inequality any more than they want to hear someone tell them they aren’t going to win the lottery. What I’m not sure about is whether war with Iran would hurt him or help him. Traditionally, war helps the incumbent. Is it possible Trump’s base would resent another pointless War? His recent decision to pull back was certainly motivated by self-interest - he has no other kind.
3
Pay no attention to polls whatsoever at this point. This is because (1) there are 23 Democratic candidates right now, (2) the economy shows signs of a coming slowdown, if not a possible recession, and (3) the warmongers Pompeo and Bolton seem hellbent on pushing Trump and the rest of us into war with somebody. Any or all of these factors can change a voter’s thinking.
China will be a big issue because of its impact on the economy. Unlike Trump, President Xi doesn’t have an election in 2020. And it’s not like Chinese leaders have been averse in the past to causing their people to suffer for the “common good.” Xi is playing a long game, while Trump has the attention span of a gnat. And losing an election would be really bad for the Trump brand.
Also, and possibly paramount, is that Trump won’t be running against a “theoretical” Democrat. He will be running against one specific person. If Trump had run against Biden, or Tim Kaine, or Michael Bloomberg, or anybody else instead of Hillary Clinton, the results may have been different. Fairly or unfairly, the unfavorable views about her held by a good chunk of the electorate were a major issue in Trump’s win.
If I ever pay any attention to a presidential poll, it won’t be until a week before the election.
5
Enough with the campaign astrology. Just tell me how an economy with people mired in debt, including student loans, high insurance deductibles or no insurance, inability of young people to buy homes and have kids, and not much for savings is a good one.
20
Trump wins when Democrats are divided and demotivated from getting out to vote.
Trump wins when Democrats turn discussions into a moral argument, instead of a discussion of bread and butter issues and policy solutions.
6
There is no doubt in my mind that Donald Trump will be re elected. No Democratic contender has emerged who can beat him. Plus the first election was rigged in his favor, wasn’t it? By Russian interference and who knows what other interference, so why won’t the same thing happen this time?
7
@RC
There are several democratic candidates that can beat Trump in the popularity contest, but the electors are in the electoral college, and obviously they don’t care what the majority of voters think.
2
@Peter
Nor should they. They should vote how the feel and not for who “the majority” tells them.
@RC Democratic turnout was below par in 2016. It won't be in 2020. It's still far too early to discuss who in particular can beat him and who can't. The election's more than a year away. Chill.
1
Will never forgive Congress /Mitch and Nancy /for allowing trump to continue and taking our Democracy so lightly.
10
So, all the happy faces on all the advertising and $2.40/gallon of gasoline may tell the fate of democracy. This ain't rule by law and reason and democracy. This is rule by dice throw -- not long for the world.
5
I’m convinced the economy could tank, or not and he’s still gonna have that 42% that stick with him. By all measures his political career should have ended so long ago and yet, here we are.
15
Trump was within a margin of error in 2016. Within a few months his approval and disapproval ratings reversed opening a wide gap that has been immune to the news cycle since. So that data says he will lose. Now data can change, but all we can go by is what is being measured now.
5
I can not go there, I am not able to hold any trust in articles/polls/opinions saying Trump will be defeated in 2020... Incumbents tend to be reelected and we who are so desperate for someone, anyone to replace him can not be complacent in any way. This recent almost war on Iran has me scared T will start a war at some point to rally the US behind him.
33
@Opal Smith in the last seven elections involving an incumbent, four won (Obama, Bush, Clinton and Reagan) while three did not (Bush, Carter and Ford). To call this a tendency is a bit exaggerated.
Trump may win because of an economic cycle on an upswing, an electorate that is naive enough to think that the president truly affects capitalist economic cycles, and an electoral college that gives to much power to rural America.
26
Bouie writes, "If virtually every Democrat under the sun is running for president, it’s because all 23 candidates think they stand a chance against a vulnerable president."
That's not true. With the exception of Biden, Sanders, probably Warren and possibly one or two others, they are all actually running for Vice President or to elevate their profiles for 2024.
The current polls are no more than fodder for pundits. The election will come down to Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly one other state. That's the ball game. It matters not the least if a million more people in Alabama or Indiana vote for Trump in 2020 than did in 2016 or if a million more people vote for the Democratic candidate in California or New York in 2020 than voted for Clinton in2016. In choosing a candidate, Democrats absolutely must keep that in mind.
The toxic mix of deceptive and lying Republican outfits, such as the Club For Growth, interfering in the Democratic primaries, coupled with the Democrats circular firing squad will lead to a Trump victory in 2020 unless people start thinking for themselves, reject all electronic echo chamber input, and nominate a Democrat who has credibility with and speaks the language of people in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Aspirational politics has its place, just not in the 2020 Presidential election if you genuinely want to defeat Trump, an election in which the current reality must take precedence over aspiration. If you don't win, you lose.
34
Good thinking. Polls this far ahead of the election mean virtually nothing according to history.
I think Trump has a good chance of winning unless the Democratic party becomes a party of clear choice -- embracing progressive economic goals -- and rejecting old cold-war visions of foreign affairs.
America's best years lie ahead! We're going to make full reparations to the descendants of slaves and we're going to eventually move forward with a newly cleared national conscience. Of this I'm sure.
7
@DudeNumber42 Trump has a very good chance of winning. This is because he reflects the ideals of a very large part of the American population (even a majority?), including not being concerned about dishonest comments. Add to that to his skillful manipulation of the media and the skewed electoral college voting and he is unlikely to lose. I already have my money on him as I did in 2016.
3
Trump does have a good chance of winning, mainly because of the economy. Actually, Trump has contributed to the growing economy. But keep in mind that this has been at great expense to ordinary Americans, and to future generations.
His massive tax stimulus which benefited the very wealthy disproportionately and placed a humongous debt burden on future generations, a federal deficit the Republicans would never have accepted from Democratic hands---has helped somewhat in keeping the economy moving. It has not carried out the predictions of paying for itself, of course, but it has helped corporations keep employment full.
He has also helped the business world by removing regulations and by lax enforcement of existing regulations. To pick the heads of regulatory agencies, he has turned to the swamp--taking people from the industries they were regulating. This loss of strict oversight will hurt all of us, by leading to more climate change, to dirtier air and water, and to more dangerous meds and cosmetics. It will also lead to more abuse in the private prisons and in the charter schools.
To regulate is also to keep cronyism and corruption down--to make certain that needed rules are observed.
So that some of the growth in business comes in sacrificing health and life expectancy for easing business restrictions. Now we allow beautiful coal to pollute our atmosphere and industries to spill their carcinogenic refuse into our waterways.
23
If trump is re-elected, Americans (or at least those select few who are members of the electoral college) will have chosen temporary economic security over essential liberties. Remember well Benjamin Franklin's warning about that Faustian bargain.
15
@Jose Pieste. The loss of freedom of speech (free press) and the the deterioration of the rule of law. This is how democracy begins to erode.
10
How about the liberty to breathe clean air and the liberty to to avoid cancer causing substances in our living spaces? Maybe the liberty to have our children grow up? Or the liberty to escape a nuclear war?
3
@Jose Pieste. When one party (now, the GOP) does everything it can to suppress the vote by minorities and rig the system, accepting help from Russian interference, running a playbook by which they take over permanently - this doesn't bother you so long as your business has less regulation? What about when that less regulation adversely affects YOUR business while promoting someone else's? What's it going to take for you to see you're being royally had?
1
I believe that there will be a marked increase in Democrat voter participation resulting in Trump's defeat in 2020. While many of Bernie Sanders alienated supporters stayed home in 2016, the "anyone but Trump" factor will energize far more Democrats to vote for whoever wins their nomination this go-around - even if they have to hold their noses when doing so.
21
@logic: sigh.....that's what they said about Hillary.
"We'll vote for her...with our noses pinched".
How'd that work out?
Telling voters to vote for a lame, uninspiring candidate they don't like or trust -- is not a winning game plan.
1
@logic. Here in Mississippi only Republican votes count. I held my nose and voted for Hillary, but I sometimes wonder if I should do that again. I guess I will do it again in 2020, all the while thinking that I could be home doing something more productive.
@Concerned Citizen the major difference is there will be 4 years of experience with "Bonre Spurs" Trump whose list of treason, berating our heros/POW's, degrading the facial appearance of a Republican female candidate, bragging about sexually assaulting woman, etc., etc. - ad nauseum - will all be fodder. Should make for some impactful Democratic "reminder" election ads - don't you think?
1
Trump’s campaign manager is Brian Pasquale who is saying that Trump will win the electoral college in 2020. Notably, he is not saying he will win the popular vote. His plan is the same as last time— micro-target persuadable voters in swing states with fear-mongering Facebook ads. These ads are effective because they are powered by AI algorithms that constantly change the content to see which are most effective on particular voter profiles. That’s why Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
People forget that propaganda works. It is an order of magnitude more effective when micro-targeted and powered by AI. Thanks Facebook!
128
@PJF-States can be won over fairly cheaply. Pour millions into the right places, corrupt the voting system, disenfranchise voters -- and there you have it. All three of these things happened in these 3 states; GOP corruption works.
6
@PJF. I don't even have a Facebook account. And there are millions of others just like me.
2
Great analysis, except for one thing. Trump is no ordinary person.
Trump attacks democracy, and 4 more years would be disastrous!
If the Democrats want to win, they must repeat a warning:
1) 4 more years of Trump may destroy democracy, as we know it.
2) Consider using songs, like "Democracy" by Leonard Cohen.
"Democracy is coming to the USA", suggesting a new dem. wave.
3) The loss of US democracy will lead to worldwide dem. losses.
4) Consider using distress symbols, like the inverted US Flag.
5) Democrats might admit that Trump has benefited the US,
making politics interesting, again, but it is time for him to leave.
6) Democrats must find better sound bites, and not rely on
endlessly long and boring, rambling statements, to reach voters.
7) Losing primary candidates could band together to support
the winner, by campaigning across the US, to beat Trump.
8 ) Let me suggest that Democrats try to convert some
Republican leaders, to turn against Trump, right now.
9) Finally, I think Democrats need a new leader with vision, hope, dreams, not politics, as usual. Perhaps a woman, like Warren?
"Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty" (Att. Jefferson, etc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
13
I like the upside down flag. Very symbolic of our American place and condition. Very visable and apt.
1
@joyce
Dear Joyce, thanks for the comment on the flag.
It is a simple matter to take a flag, or a picture of a flag, and turn it upside down.
But I fear that Democrats endlessly complicate their arguments against Trump. So, people get flustered or they forget what was said or done.
1) Emerson said:
" A good SYMBOL is the best argument, and a missionary to persuade thousands."
2) RL Stevenson said
"Man is creature who lives not upon bread alone, but primarily by CATCHWORDS."
3) Again, I suggest the use of the "Democracy" SONG, by Leonard Cohen. This can be found on YouTube, and the lyrics are online. Democrats could use this prophetic song, over and over.
It might suggest a new democratic wave, a hope,
a dream for the nation.
After Trump, we need new democratic safeguards!
--------------------------------------------------------------
Thanks much, Joyce
So, you're saying we should sabotage the economy? For example, encourage the trade war with China?
4
Mr. Bouie makes several errors in his evaluation of the likelihood that Mr. Trump will be re-elected, although I think he’s correct in his assessment that Mr. Trump will be re-elected. First, Ms. Pelosi isn’t avoiding initiating impeachment proceedings because she thinks Mr. Trump will likely lose, it’s because she doesn’t have the votes in the House to impeach. Second, the 23 Democratic presidential candidates aren’t in it because they think Mr. Trump is vulnerable, it’s because they want to raise their political profiles and this is the first time in a decade that leadership of the Democratic Party is up for grabs now that Hillary Clinton is a spent force. Third, even if Mr. Trump’s approval rating is stuck in the low 40% range, his base is rock solid. No Democrat has that level of dependable support from the fractious and incoherent coalition of interest groups that constitute their party. And when a Democratic nominee finally emerges, she or he will immediately plummet in the polls because the Democratic coalition is going to throw up a candidate who is unacceptable/uninteresting to the losing coalition (eg if Sanders wins, Black voters stay home at election time; if Biden is the nominee, women and the far left fringe stay home). Mr. Trump supported by a strong economy, but even more importantly, the identity politics of the far left makes it impossible to sway Whites, particularly non college-educated males, to their camp. There isn’t a chance a Democrat gets elected.
18
Never underestimate the ability of money + lies to win an election.
Just ask John Kerry.
Whoever the Democratic candidate turns out to be in 2020, that candidate will need a game plan for how to deal with all of the lies that will be told about her/him, while simultaneously trying to get their message out to voters.
34
@Larry
Precisely where the Dems. have always been weakest — messaging and fighting back. Still bringing knives to gunfights, and acting as if games are being played instead of all out warfare.
Any other president with this kind of economy at his back would have 70% ratings and be a shoo-in, as Obama was (and would have been in a 2016 race against Trump). Trump is unique in American history as someone who has NEVER given even the pretense about caring about anyone but himself and his base, therefore, he fits no normal model for political prognostication. Moreover, it is absolutely useless to consider "national" polling given the sad reality of Electoral College advantages for the Great Red Flyover Republic. Trump LOST the 2016 national vote by 3 million votes. It is GUARANTEED he will get less votes nationally than his opponent this time, no matter who runs. He will not win California, or New York, or almost any of the economically and culturally attractive states (places where people actually want to live and are willing to pay high prices to do so). Nor will he lose in any of the economically challenged, rural, and educationally backward states like Mississippi or Alabama. So, to our shame as a country, our 200-year-old federalist mumbo-jumbo of a system means that the country's No.1 national figure will be determined with virtually no relationship to the popular will. In such a situation, who knows what is possible?
39
Sadly, hate and fear are strong motivators. Trump used them successfully in 2016. However, there is a level of fear and hate directed towards Trump which is much higher than it was in 2016. Both Trump and Clinton were historically unpopular candidates. I don't believe any of the serious democratic. Candidates carry the sort of baggage that she had , fair or unfair tho it may have been
5
Are you kidding? By the time the Republican lie machine is done with any Democratic presidential nominee he or she will carry more false baggage than Hillary did.
In November 2016, the genie was let out of the bottle.
If Trump is re-elected in 2020, the "new normal," the truthiness, the alternative reality, alternative facts, truthful hyperbole and actual fake news will become..... normal.
And the nation may never recover.
There's only one chance to put the genie back into the bottle. 2020.
Four more years of Trump, and the nation may never be able to recover, and return to a nation we all can be proud of.
31
Trump is not only doubling down on his authoritarian, racist, and sexist message to hold his base, his “Keep America Great” status quo slogan has zero appeal to the vast majority of voters who are struggling economically. The booming GDP means nothing to people working two or three jobs, lacking the stability and dignity of manufacturing or college educated jobs. Trump’s polls have been stable, his base at around 40% of the population—he needs 45+%, including in swing states, to win. Trump will mishandle any crisis such as a war in Iran, further hurting his election chances. Only a Democratic Presidential candidate out of touch with the mood of the people for major change, as Hillary was, or a strong, centrist third party candidate with corporate support, can give Trump a chance to win.
11
@Bruce Shigeura The unpleasant truth is that today's white non-college educated working class person is not your grandfather's white non-college educated working class person.
Eighty years ago, there were many very intelligent people who did not attend college because of financial circumstances or because of discrimination against their race, religion or gender. Henry George, arguably the most brilliant American economist of the 19th century, left school at age 14. President Harry Truman was not a college graduate.
Today, with many exceptions, someone under the age of forty who was never interested in college probably is not very smart. That could reduce their wages. That also makes them vulnerable to the lies that got Trump elected. Even some with college educations are not able to understand that NAFTA and trade agreements in general increase employment and standards of living and that immigrants are not responsible for slow economic growth. .."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134453
3
@Bruce Shigeura The probability of the election resulting in a change in the tax code that significantly reverses the massive shift in the tax burden away from the rich and onto the middle class is still very low as long as the Democrats continue to combine such tax proposals with plans to spend the proceeds on various social programs. However, a plan to raise taxes on those with assets above $50 million and/or incomes above $10 million and use all of the proceeds to reduce the taxes on everyone else might have a much higher probability of being enacted.
It is hard to envision the Democrats being politically savvy or ideologically flexible enough to embrace a policy of directly shifting the tax burden away from the middle class and onto the rich. The Democrats have generally been deluded in their belief that the current level of taxes on the middle class is politically sustainable. In Hillary Clinton's speech announcing her candidacy, she said that the middle class pays too much taxes. She never mentioned a middle class tax cut again. Most Democrat politicians are not aware that by far the best thing government could do for most middle-class households would be to lower their taxes. Thus, in many cases, middle-class voters have been willing to grasp at any chance they think could lower their tax burden, and thus support candidates who promise them a tax cut, no matter how odious the candidates might be otherwise...."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4267895
4
@Lance Brofman Trump and the Republicans take advantage of the rapid decline of rural, Christian America, to turn them against climate change and the federal government, even though they are hurt worse by drought and hurricanes and receive more per capital federal aid than blue states. Their desperation leaves them open to an authoritarian demagogue who pays attention to them and promises to protect them.
My guess is that people do not always tell the truth to pollsters. How they vote might be quite different.
60
@Joshua Schwartz
Agreed. Something Trump understands well. The 'we start deporting illegals in 24 house bit' was precisely that. He understands his voters very well.
@Joshua Schwartz Your guess is uninformed by any factual reality. First of all, the polls in 2016 were not very far off, but they did fail to micro-target certain states. Statistics are science, just not a precise one. Second your hunch that people lie to pollsters has never been backed up in any study. Please explain why people would do something so counterintuitive. The simple answer is the most likely. Guile is not a common response to a straightforward question.
1
@Chuck Burton
Good points, but I wonder whether statistical models are accurately accounting for people who don't answer their phones, which in this day and age I surmise is a large number.
Biden can claim the economy more than Trump can. Economic growth was more or less a straight slope under Obama and Trump is still on that line unless something has changed, and I do not believe it has.
10
@T
If Biden claims the economy it will only be to Trumps gain. Trump will point out that as veep Biden wasn't in charge of much of anything. Voters have never cared how the economy was under a president 4 years ago. The political/economic memory of many voters goes back no more than 6 months. If they got even a small raise last week that's all they will recall. Business people are aware of all of this and let's face it most of them could care less even if Trump was shown to be on Putin's payroll. So look for a surge in pay increases not now but shortly before the election.
4
Too bad but the more I see of Biden, the less appealing he looks for the presidency.
Stay home Joe and give it a rest.
Biden, behind all his seeming verbal blunders, past mistakes in positioning, Senatorial voting & reluctance to apologize, can siphon off enough former Trump voters with his likability to secure the Electoral College.
His willingness to abide with Trump's "surging" economy, his benign take on the billionaires & his skewed bi-partisan cooperative willingness will secure the vast numbers of Independents & moderates who believe rocking the boat will endanger everybody & everything. I won't be voting for him, but I believe his primary opponents are too many to pose a threat. I'll vote for him in the general.
19
Trump has one huge advantage that goes unmentioned here. The Democratic party is the world champion at the circular firing squad competition. They've won almost every year for 20 years now.
Currently, at the center of the circle is Joe Biden. He undoubtedly has the best chance to beat Trump. But the Democrats are firing away. He said he was able to work the a couple of segregationists decades ago. Oh the horror!
Not the best example of bipartisanship, but he said it. And the rounds have been poured into him. What do the pundits say?
He's from a lost past. He doesn't represent today's Democratic party. He is so yesteryear. Well I have news for all of you pundits and experts. The Democratic party does not elect the president. The entire nation does.
If Biden is most acceptable candidate to the most people, then he should be the nominee. Elizabeth Warren is fantastic. But Wall Street will unload about $50 billion to keep her out of office. Red staters think she is anti-business.
Our nation is on the precipice of losing our republican form of government. We have a chief executive that's run amuck, a Supreme Court that believes in an all powerful executive and a Senate run by a dictator who supports anything that helps big business and opposes everything that helps working class people, which he calls socialism.
It is the circular firing squad that gives Trump his best chance. Looks like Trump is off to a great start.
259
@Bruce Rozenblit - I only have one problem with your comment-why is it that when I keep clicking recommend-it won't add my 1000 likes? Truly one of your best comments ever. Please submit this as a letter to the editor.
10
@Bruce Rozenblit You don't want to bubble wrap Biden for all of 2019, do you? He needs to better align his message with younger Democratic voters. Reminiscing about being called "son" rather than "boy" by white supremacists is hopelessly tin-eared and offensive -- if he learns this lesson now, in June 2019, so much the better, because the little mess he's kicked up will be long forgotten by general election season. If he is too stubborn and obtuse to sharpen up his message, then he deserves the circular firing squad.
Wall Street might loathe Warren, but the right will scream "socialism" and "anti-business" no matter who gets the Democratic nomination. Just like they screamed at centrist Biden and Obama for eight long years.
12
@Bruce Rozenblit The Democratic Party is actually forming its firing squads in concentric circles.
2
This is too early to start listening to or making forecasts for who will win. If I were the Democrats I'd go in giving it my all to win and upset Trump. I wouldn't waste my time criticizing my fellow candidates. That plays to Trump and the GOP's advantage simply because they are in power.
Americans have to learn how to do critical thinking. It's hard because that skill is not taught to us in school, not even at the college level. We hear tax cuts and never connect our increasingly threadbare social safety net with it, cuts to programs that help the middle and working classes, our deteriorating infrastructure, etc. We hear deregulation but don't consider what it really means for us as consumers, employees, or just plain people.
The bottom line here is that we need a government that works for us, with us, and doesn't throw us to the wolves in favor of its large donors who don't care about us. Trump is not our savior. The GOP is owned and operated by the likes of the Koch Brothers, the Adelsons, etc. The Democrats too rely upon large donors which is why Obama favored Wall Street over Main Street when it came to financial regulations and appointees.
There is no easy answer here but one: vote Trump out because he is incompetent.
6/22/2019 8:57pm
93
@hen3ry,
While paying attention to what you have to add, it is not 'too early' to determine whether America wants another second-term Trump presidency.
Whether he can be voted out because of incompetency is highly debatable, but how much longer can national damage-control be sustained is a matter of time, before the leaking presidency bubble starts to flood.
6
@hen3ry, Life can be a pretty good teacher about critical thinking, too. The kid who has to take a job while in high school and college may know better than some of their teachers.
1
The night before the 2016 presidential election, I thought Hillary Clinton would win but not by a landslide. I was wrong.
We voted for an America where heavy stomping was heard of we did not want the 'Same old, Same old', and our wish was granted. All was not lost because Trump always considered a bit shady in the elite corporate world, might show that he was made of stronger substance than playing a popular T.V. show.
When one of his first presidential tweets at night was sent out to The Universe, Miss Universe to lose weight, I thought 'Folks, We're in Trouble', but maybe it's a fluke, and he's still adjusting to the most powerful role in The Land.
Now. While joining Mr. Bouie in not being a star-gazer, this voter is preparing for a second-term Trump presidency. His Base is solid even though one senses he despises it; his powerful foreign Allies are winking over his head; The Democratic Party remains scattered and The Press continues jumping through hoops to keep up with his latest move.
This does not mean throwing in the towel and sitting on one's thumbs. There is a lot at stake here in this 'Case of America versus Trump'.
Meanwhile, the calls for impeachment hearings and removal of the 45th are growing louder. But we have learnt much about our character, e.g. we do not care if there is alien corn in Our Constitution, or that children are suffering.
Tears have been shed over answered prayers; put the hankies on hold, and Live for America Again.
8
Very well said, @Miss Ley. Very well said.
1
The critical mistake Nancy Pelosi is making is that she assumes the Democrats will win in 2020. So she refuses to do her job as outlined in the Constitution. She does nothing.
In 2016 I believed that Trump would win. As much as the economy had rebounded from 2008, and cities like New York and San Francisco were booming, many people around me (and around this region) were still hurting. In 2019, they still are.
Trump has many things going for him: an economy that has made his deep pocket donors very rich, but has not lifted all boats, so he has disaffected voters to call upon and the $$ to do it with; a bellicose message that appeals to many who are tired of politics as usual, seeing politicians like Biden working for the status quo and not for them; and, finally, a foreign government (or two) that may be willing to help tip the scales again.
Never, ever assume that just because we see the country and this administration's policies as insane right now, others see it the same way we do. To do so, as Pelosi clearly does, we will lose again.
71
@avrds Today in Russia there are probably thousands of Russia’s best engineers working on the mechanisms of every type of voting system used in the USA, in an effort rig the 2020 election for Trump. In many cases, the Russian military intelligence officers will have to physically infiltrate in the USA and rig machines in key districts. As long as Trump stooges still control the Justice Department and other agencies, the Russians won’t have much difficulty entering the USA.
If Trump is still in office in November 2020, then Putin will again decide who the president of the USA will be. The only way that the Democrats could remove Trump from office would if he blatantly defies a Supreme court ruling regarding documents or allowing testimony. That could cause some Republican senators such as Grassley or Romney to actually call for Trump's removal. Thus, the Democrats best hope would be to hold off on enacting any articles of impeachment until the court battles are over. Just proving collusion and obstruction of justice won't sway any Republican senators.
Trump famously said "I could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose any votes". That has now been replaced by "Trump could be caught handing America’s top military secrets to Russia and still not have any Republican votes for impeachment"..."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4216597
3
@avrds. Nancy Pelosi's lack of action makes the Democratic Party look even weaker than they already are. Every time I see her speak she looks like a deer caught in the headlights. I will vote Democrat as I always do, but without hope that much will ever change. I think Trump stands a good chance of winning, and the Democratic Party's weakness will help him do it.
4
@avrds
Evil always has the upper hand. A liar knows which things are lies. A cheater knows where the cheats are. A political party with no moral compass can swing in all directions to pick up the slightest breeze. Of course the good guys are at a disadvantage! It has ever been thus.
With that being said, Speaker Pelosi has played a masterful game in staring into the abyss and seeking to navigate this country to safety. Impeaching Trump without removal is only symbolic and will look like a victory for him.
It will take years for us to lose all of our freedoms under Trump (and future Republicans) and by then I and many others will have lived most of our lives. And we can probably live on in relative safety if we don't protest at the loss of liberty.
1
I often agree with the maxim that “People vote with their wallets and their pocketbooks,” and with our robust economy, that fact might be enough to give Trump a second term in the White House. However, my gut feeling is that voter turnout from Millennial and even Generation Z voters is what will determine whether Trump or his Democratic opponent (my first choice: Elizabeth Warren) prevails in 2020.
39
@J. Grant: you are assuming that Millennials will be all fired up over a 77 year old Joe Biden.
I'm not seeing that, not at all.
They have the numbers, but no evidence they will turn out at the polls. Also, in 2016....young voters were distracted by Bernie and Jill Stein.
On the other hand, older voters are VERY reliable and the GOP excels at nothing so much as inspiring turnout.
2
@J. Grant. It's very true that many people vote with their wallets and pocketbooks. The media have given people who don't really pay enough attention the idea that we have a robust economy. No we don't. The economy is only robust for big business and the top quintile of our population. The media are owned by a few powerful corporations that benefit by keeping the masses brainwashed.
4
I disagree completely with your analysis of the near past, the present and the future. In none of the elections you cite had the candidate squeaked by in 3 key states by a total of 77,000 votes and lost the popular vote by 3 million votes. Those are the facts with Trump. So a change of 40,000 votes in those 3 states with a population of about 30 million citizens would have made Trump a loser. To me, that renders Trump a statistical anomaly. If the 2016 election were held the day before or the day after the actual election day, Trump may well have lost. Add to these facts the knowledge that Trump and his campaign believe Trump can win with his "base" alone and it is difficult to see a scenario in which he wins. Aside from Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania Trump won Florida by about 100,000 votes. It is estimated that nearly 1 million US citizens have moved to Florida from Puerto Rico. On that basis alone, Florida with the third most electoral college votes, is problematic for Trump. I may well be wrong. As they say, they don't run horseraces on paper, but on the racetrack. But I feel my optimism is logically justified.
57
@James Ricciardi
I agree, but I would also add: let's not forget James Comey. What he did a week before the election was disgraceful and completely unjustified. I think that was the crucial difference.
146
@Sirlar Yes, that is another factor working against Trump unless he can cause someone in his administration to do that type of thing to the next Democratic cndidiate.
I agree that the state of the economy will hugely affect the election, but the indicators we have used for so long, like the DOW and unemployment numbers is far from an accurate reflection of our 21st century nation and world. The difference between who does the work and who owns the wealth is too great. The super rich don't do squat for the economy. A growing and satisfied middle class with many families moving up and out of poverty will stimulate an economy in a much healthier way than some billionaire pushing stock prices up.
11
@Richard Tandlich We probably shouldn't assume that Trump is a real billionaire.
30
Two occurrences not mention here should also be considered. First, Hillary Clinton garnered 3+ million more votes than Trump, and while the economy was booming in 2018, the Republicans lost the House by a large margin. That tells me that if the Democratic nominee pushes for those programs that helped win the House in 2018, their chances of victory are good in 2019. Voters trust the Democrats more when it comes to healthcare, wages, and education.
One other point, Trump has given the Democrats a gift with his hate filled tweets, immigration nightmare separating children from their parents, and a host of other hostile rhetoric. When November, 2020 arrives voter turnout for the Democrats will likely be greater than any year in memory.
69
If you recognize that our Presidential election is, thanks to the electoral college, 51 separate elections, you realize that national polls are worthless. You also realize that the election will be decided in a small number of swing states. And I am sure that the Democratic candidate will realize that it is more important to campaign there than anywhere else.
I think it a safe bet that Trump will not get a plurality in the nationwide popular vote; indeed, his opponent may actually get a majority. But when you run the electoral college the most likely result, assuming that Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin return to the blue side, is a very narrow defeat for Trump. And, it is a very safe bet that he will contest these results in the courts, meaning that we will have Bush v. Gore 2.0, on steroids!
Which means, in the end, that whomever wins about 40% of the country will think they stole the election.
22
@John Graybeard. If the election results are so close that it goes to the Supreme Court to decide, we all know who will be declared the winner.
1
As the likelihood of Trump winning reelection grows dim, do not be surprised if a group in the GOP decides that it is better to impeach Trump and run Pence (or someone else) in 2020.
The first sign of this will be that some GOP House members join the Democrats overriding a veto of legislation that tried to block a Presidential action. Then if the Senate then overrides the same veto, impeachment and conviction by the Senate may not be far behind.
7
@Brad I have to agree with you here. The biggest threat to the Democrats is if the GOP were to shuffle Pence to POTUS while keeping Trump in the wings. Voter turnout in the midterms was due to the objection to Trump.
Here's where Trump is savvy, and has not been called on it: he made a deal with the stock market by slashing corporate tax rates and gutting regulations, thus propelling stocks higher (also creating stock buybacks that decreased total shares, and increasing prices). He has made a deal with the market: I give you tax cuts and de-regulations; you keep your foot on the pedal to keep it going higher. Forget about deficits: that was so 1990s. So the markets are higher, also continuing Obama's growth, and promoting the "wealth effect."
But Trump got in, in my mind, for three main reasons. One, he was able to further "stain" Hillary as a corrupt politician and tap into whatever disdain was held by many voters. Two, he benefited from "magical thinking": he described the carnage of American rust belt towns, and this implied he knew how to fix them, or should at least be given a chance. Three, he was able to run as "the comeback kid" or "the non-politician who will shake things up," and who could propose a narrative for his victory as a kind of revolution.
If he is again able to run on some kind of phony narrative that can be bought into then we are in trouble. The election for president is much like a sixth grade popularity contest.
20
@Srose: whatever else you think of Trump...it was not necessary to "stain" Hillary as corrupt.
The Clintons did THAT perfectly well all by themselves!
1
Bouie writes, "If virtually every Democrat under the sun is running for president, it’s because all 23 candidates think they stand a chance against a vulnerable president."
That's not true. With the exception of Biden, Sanders, probably Warren and possibly one or two others, they are all actually running for Vice President or to elevate their profiles for 2024.
The current polls are no more than fodder for pundits. The election will come down to Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly one other state. That's the ball game. It matters not the least if a million more people in Alabama or Indiana vote for Trump in 2020 than did in 2016 or if a million more people vote for the Democratic candidate in California or New York in 2020 than voted for Clinton in2016. In choosing a candidate, Democrats absolutely must keep that in mind.
The toxic mix of deceptive and lying Republican outfits, such as the Club For Growth, interfering in the Democratic primaries coupled with the Democrats' circular firing squad will lead to a Trump victory in 2020 unless people start thinking for themselves, reject all electronic echo chamber input, and nominate a Democrat who has credibility with and speaks the language of people in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Aspirational politics has its place, just not in the 2020 Presidential election if you genuinely want to defeat Trump, an election in which the current reality must take precedence over aspiration. If you don't win, you lose.
27
@Steve Fankuchen,
Thank you. In view of your contribution to the above, it might be of help to have your view and those of others on whether Joe Biden and Stacey Abrams would stand strong together. Further, one powerful slogan might be considered to bring The Democratic Party to the formation of a solid lead.
For Americans who feel we can do better, a formidable and credible orator, representative of all, without the need to deluge the voters in brain candy, comprehensible about the future of our country and its prosperity, might be to the good.
3
@Miss Ley
Miss Ley, thank you for engaging. My thought regarding Stacey Abrams is that in general, unlike in1960 and before, Vice Presidential candidates are essentially irrelevant to the large majority of voters. And, when not irrelevant, they are more likely to cost votes than gain votes, such as Thomas Eagleton and Sarah Palin, the latter arguably costing McCain the Presidency.
If Biden is the nominee, he should pick for his Veep candidate the person who is in the best position to be a strong candidate in 2024. Whoever that is, she or he must be scrupulously vetted before being chosen. As well, that person has to understand that the election must be about the Presidential candidate, and at absolutely no time should the Veep candidate upstage the nominee, not even accidentally. I remember seeing Kerry/Edwards bumberstickers and saying that Kerry's campaign just didn't get it. The Presidential nominee's name should always be in much bigger print than the name of the Veep nominee.
3
@Steve Fankuchen: there is always a danger if a Presidential candidate picks a running mate who is more popular or outshines themselves.
You've got the Sarah Palin thing ALL WRONG. She was very popular initially and had Democrats running scared -- many news outlets proclaimed "the election is OVER" when she first appeared. ALSO: how many today talk about 2008 as if Obama ran against PALIN...forgetting John McCain entirely?
Liberal fears of Palin have only recently subsided, despite her leaving public life YEARS ago. Funny, but before Trump...SHE was the big GOP "threat".
Hillary did not pick Bernie as her running mate, just as Obama did not pick HILLARY in 2008. Why? you don't want to be outshone by your running mate.
That's why Biden won't pick Stacey Abrams, and Warren will never pick Buttigieg. They are too popular and charismatic to be running mates.
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Put Trump in the same thought as great is stunning, as he is farthest thing from great as possible.
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One only need to look at how the midterms turned out for Democrats to see how they are going to fare in any general election.
True Progressive candidates won in many places they were not expected to win, and came so very close in other places against massively entrenched incumbents. (republicans)
Having said that, there are a few variables on the table that will whittle down a Democratic victory (which is locked in)
First of course, is time itself, since we are more than a year and a half out from the ballot box. The next thing is the economy. Even though the unemployment numbers are down and the stock market is up, there are still too many that are not anywhere near participating fully in the benefits.
There is the new crushing republican taxes (tariffs) that are wiping out many of the voters of the base. As well, republicans have not stopped in their efforts to eliminate health care for millions more people. All of that is have a serious effect on people's lives - let alone the global economy.
Lastly, there is the usual trick of republicans to start or ramp up a conflict/war. This seems to be holding true yet again, and for the next 18 months, we shall see if the President ignores the sole responsibility of Congress to declare or initiate any war.
Most countries and leaders around the world are waiting for the election, as much as we are. It cannot come too soon.
We just hope there will be something ''left'' to vote for.
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Climate change is the issue of our time. It is driven by population. People emit through consumption. Every immigrant, legal or illegal, is making it more difficult for the US. The Democrats are addicted to stealing political power through illegal immigration. Because of climate change their position is immoral. I will support any candidate who seriously offers to stop the endless flow of people into this country. Not because I hate anyone- but because I love my family and fellow citizens more. The over population of the rest of the world is not my responsibility.
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Illegal immigration isn't even close to the most important factor driving climate change. If climate change is really the most important issue for you, not immigration, you need to vote for the candidate who will work towards carbon neutrality and promote green tech. But perhaps this is just another ploy to get progressives fired up against immigrants.
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The world (earth) is a small space; do you really think keeping people out of the US is going to in any way help with the climate change issue? I agree with you that CC is the most important issue for humanity, regardless of where one lives. Please do not conflate these two completely separate issues - immigration and climate change. Let’s instead vote for prople who offer viable solutions.
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@willt26
What does this mean Willt26?: "The Democrats are addicted to stealing political power through illegal immigration."
I read it just like many other similar posts claiming that allowing "immigrants in via open borders," these immigrants then vote, and they vote Democratic. How in the world do you think these people get to vote? And, by the way, who is for open borders? No Democrat running or that I know is for them. And, registered citizens vote, not immigrants.
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Donald Trump's greatest gift to America is his ability to divide and quarter. The hate was always there, hidden away, America's quirky relative living upstairs who was too embarrassing to have downstairs for dinner. Until Trump said it was OK to come down.
The president has skated on thin ice since his inauguration, yet he has found himself able to withstand any number of embarrassments and incompetencies and personal corruption scandals that would have much sooner destroyed anyone else. Why has he survived? The hate.
Mitch McConnell guards the Senate door with dripping fangs, growling at anyone who dares mention legislation. The president owns the Senate. The House has invested the presidency but has yet to exact a toll with its infighting and indecision. This all helps the president. He can tell his supporters, "If they have so much on me, why haven't I been impeached and removed?" He will have a point.
People don't remember that Barack Obama's stewardship of the nation from the Great Recession to something like prosperity (low unemployment but continuing gross inequality and wage stagnation). He's been out of office for two-plus years and anything in the black (fiscally speaking, of course), Trump can--does, and will--claim as his own. Money is a powerful aphrodisiac in presidential election years and folks are inclined not to care if a president is a low-life--unless it's a Democrat.
I don't see Joe Biden beating Trump, nor a woman. I fear 2020 will be 2016 redux.
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@Red Sox, ‘04, ‘07, ‘13, ‘18
I too fear that ‘2020 will be a 2016 redux’ (particularly about the popular vote vs. Electoral College), but am determined not to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. I will take nothing for granted, do all I can to turn out the vote, and offer my unqualified support to the Democratic nominee, no matter who it is. I would love for that person to be high caliber like President Obama, but literally anyone would be an improvement from this incumbent.
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@NM: Esteemed daughter of the Cairene scholar: I just can't shake this crawling feeling. The president does nothing right but nothing seems to hurt him. Joe Biden's past has caught up with him. Elizabeth Warren has a sharpness that just goes right over the heads of most people. Kamala Harris is being outflanked by her hard-line on sentencing when she was the San Francisco City and then County D.A. I like her very much but I don't think the country is ready for another non-white president. Senator Warren's uphill climb is made more difficult by her intellect and her careful planning. I don't want Trump in 2020 to become a self-fulfilling prophecy either, but with national outrage over Iran rather (it seems to me) tepid, he continues to dance between the raindrops. It's as though his "base" is all that matters in national politics. They are a slice, not the entire pie, and their influence is out of proportion to the general electorate. Don't forget that 140-million Americans sat out 2016 because they thought Hillary Clinton was a shoo-in or thought they could post a protest vote for a third-party candidate and not lose any sleep over it. The president has survived two-plus years of "October surprises" and seems not to be the worse for it. That's why I'm pessimistic.
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@Red Sox, ‘04, ‘07, ‘13, ‘18 I disagree. It is far too early to pick a Democrat winner, but Trump continues with the same tired old slogans and chants as he did in 2016. His latest rally was almost identical to his first one.
The one thing that could kill Democrat chances is going too far left - and things like canceling student loan debt, slavery reparations, and the like are NOT popular nor winning issues.
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Now we need to urge state legislators, in states with the 74 more electoral votes needed, to enact the National Popular Vote bill.
The bill is 73% of the way to guaranteeing the majority of Electoral College votes and the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country. It would change state winner-take-all laws (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), without changing anything in the Constitution, using the built-in method that the Constitution provides for states to make changes.
It requires enacting states with 270 electoral votes to award their electoral votes to the winner of the most national popular votes.
All voters would be valued equally in presidential elections, no matter where they live.
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@mvymvy
So rig the election? Forget it. Play within the rules. If Hillary Clinton hadn’t spent all of August 2016 hanging around with friends on Long Island and had spent time in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, we wouldn’t be in the particular pickle we are in now. Forget changing all the rules this late in the game.
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@Tom - One person, One vote. The candidate with the most votes wins, would NOT be "rigging" the election.
The National Popular Vote bill has been introduced in legislatures in all 50 states and DC since 2006.
More than 3,395 state legislators (in 50 states) have sponsored and/or cast recorded votes in favor of the bill.
The bill has been debated in legislative chambers in 36 states.
It has passed 40 state legislative chambers in 24 rural, small, medium, large, Democratic, Republican and purple states with 271 electoral votes, including one house in Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Maine (4), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), North Carolina (15), and Oklahoma (7), and both houses in Nevada (6).
It has been enacted by 16 small, medium, and large jurisdictions with 196 electoral votes – 73% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
Of COURSE Clinton did not spend all of August hanging around with friends.
Trump's re-election campaign started in January 2017. He has been in campaign mode for years.
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Focusing on national polling was the mistake of 2016; it should not be the mistake of 2020.
This Republican President was indeed defeated in 2016 - nationally - the polls were correct, and he lost the national popular vote, but he won the Electoral College.
Hence, the only polls which matter for predicting 2020 are the statewide polls in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and possibly Ohio, since the Dem candidate needs these states to win the Electoral College - presuming all else is equal, and Dems elsewhere in the country turn out in huge numbers voting as they did in 2016.
The question is whether Dems will have the discipline to vote strategically, using their vote as the powerful weapon it is, or whether Dems will repeat their mistake of 2000 and 2016 - letting the perfect be the enemy of the good - casting 'votes of conscience', putting the White House into Republican hands again ?
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@R. Law - There are several scenarios in which a candidate could win the presidency in 2020 with fewer popular votes than their opponents. It could reduce turnout more, as more voters realize their votes do not matter.
Most Americans don't ultimately care whether their presidential candidate wins or loses in their state or district. Voters want to know, that no matter where they live, even if they were on the losing side, their vote actually was equally counted and mattered to their candidate. Most Americans think it is wrong that the candidate with the most popular votes can lose. It undermines the legitimacy of the electoral system. We don't allow this in any other election in our representative republic.
The National Popular Vote bill was approved in 2016 by a unanimous bipartisan House committee vote in both Georgia (16 electoral votes) and Missouri (10).
Since 2006, the bill has passed 40 state legislative chambers in 24 rural, small, medium, large, Democratic, Republican and purple states with 271 electoral votes, including one house in Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Maine (4), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), North Carolina (15), and Oklahoma (7), and both houses in Nevada (6).
The bill has been enacted by 16 small, medium, and large jurisdictions with 196 electoral votes – 73% of the way to guaranteeing the majority of Electoral College votes and the presidency to the candidate with the most national popular votes.
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@mvymvy - You're preaching to the choir; but in 2020, the Electoral College victory delivers the White House.
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@R. Law
Great analysis, buy. Trump is no ordinary person. Trump attacks democracy, and 4 more years would be disastrous!
If the Democrats want to win, they must repeat a warning:
1) 4 more years of Trump may destroy democracy.
2) Consider using songs, like "Democracy" by Leonard Cohen. "Democracy is coming to the USA", suggesting a new dem. wave.
3) The loss of US democracy will lead to worldwide democratic losses.
4) Use distress symbols, like the inverted US Flag.
5) Democrats might admit Trump has benefited the US, making politics interesting, but it's time for him to leave.
6) Democrats must find better sound bites, and not rely on
long, boring, rambling statements, to reach voters.
7) Losing primary candidates could band together to support winner, campaigning across the US, to beat Trump.
8 ) Let me suggest that Democrats try to convert some
Republican leaders, to turn against Trump, right now.
9) Finally, I think Democrats need a new leader with vision, hope, dreams, not politics, as usual. Perhaps a woman, like Sen. Warren?
"Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty" (Att. Jefferson, etc)
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Hillary Clinton won the popular vote and lost the Electoral College by losing three states by a hair.
We couldn’t predict all the factors that ultimately played into that outcome, including Russia’s concerted efforts to interfere, the endless witch hunt about her emails, and James Comey’s poor decision to throw in his own hand. But we do know that just a little more turnout would have changed history’s course.
Likewise with 2020. There are no guarantees with politics. But one certainty is that Trump will have to hope that enough Democrats will give in to purity tests and apathy to tip the numbers towards him again. We must not let that happen.
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@NM - Unable to agree on any particular method for selecting presidential electors, the Founding Fathers left the choice of method exclusively to the states in Article II, Section 1
“Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors….”
The U.S. Supreme Court has repeatedly characterized the authority of the state legislatures over the manner of awarding their electoral votes as "plenary" and "exclusive."
The National Popular Vote bill is states with 270 electors replacing state winner-take-all laws that award all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who get the most popular votes in each separate state (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), in the enacting states, to guarantee the majority of Electoral College votes for, and the Presidency to, the candidate getting the most popular votes in the entire United States.
The bill retains the constitutionally mandated Electoral College and state control of elections, and uses the built-in method that the Constitution provides for states to make changes. It ensures that every voter is equal, every voter will matter, in every state, in every presidential election, and the candidate with the most votes wins, as in virtually every other election in the country.
The vote of every voter in the country (Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, or Green) would help his or her preferred candidate win the Presidency.
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@NM you forgot to mention the MSM broadcasting every minute of the hour for 2 months, that Clinton would win. Which in itself suppressed the Democratic vote. If it would’ve broadcasted that Trump and Hillary were neck and neck, it would have motivated all the Progressive and Greens voters to vote for Hillary - that’s a statistical fact. And Hillary would have won, and those Progressive and Greens voters would have then affected the midterms to reflect more of their voting preference.
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The economy and Trump's self-destructive tendencies both play into the mix, but the key variable is, at this point, unknown: who will be his opponent?
There may be a bit of negative advertising on the horizon.
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