So, Tucker Carlson is deciding our country's Foreign Policy now?
Sadly, that's an improvement over the feckless Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Jim Risch.
25
Tonight when I go to bed I am going to ask for a pleasant dream of an American nirvana where someone who has the depth of knowledge, wisdom and balance of Roger Cohen is President of the US. For that brief time, I could then be relieved and joyful that the world could be a much better place and I won't have to worry daily about its upcoming human induced annihilation.
29
Terrific essay.
20
"....the first wise decision on Iran the president has taken."
Learning about the human cost of an attack 10 MINUTES before it starts smacks of the ACCIDENTAL - nothing to do with WISDOM....
14
Is Graham running unopposed in S Carolina? This guy is off the rails. Is he unaware of how clownish he behaves?At the least can’t we figure out how to limit his recklessness and grandiosity to the people who vote for him?
26
Truer words were never spoken. As Cohen so rightly points out, "dazzled by Saudi blandishments, Israeli veneration, the opportunity to trash Barack Obama’s diplomacy and the lure of evangelicals’ votes, Trump determined from Day 1 that the Islamic Republic was the enemy from Central Casting." The real enemies here are Bolton, Pompeo, Liz Cheney and Lindsey Graham. If Trump had a real chief of staff instead of a toady who gets thrown out of the Oval Office when he coughs during a television interview, he would advise this president to ignore those braying for war and get some more sinsible advisers.
31
Bravo Roger Cohen!
14
Sums up the idiotic approach to Iran taken by this incompetent president precisely. Anyone thinking we need another term for this crew needs their head examined.
21
To threaten and then back off is Trump's M.O. It makes him look both tough and wise, so he foolishly thinks. It's the mirror-image of the Boy Who Cried Wolf, and just as childish. It is inconceivable that he didn't know about casualty numbers until "planes were in the air." Yet, I hear conservatives nod their heads and say "Good decision, Pres Trump." The only decision Trump made was to try to make himself look good in the short term. Any fallout will just be called Fake News.
16
Mr Cohen must be articulating the feelings of every rational citizen on the Planet.! An excellent article, and an essay for slow learners.How many of the 9/11 perpetrators came from Iran.? How many from the USA's best friend-Saudia Arabia.?
The American people must also become fully aware of the track record of the US government in its own backyard-South America.Every small nation that attempted to reform its ruthless and corrupt "capitalism" driven regimes,was labelled as Communistic" and suppressed by covert aid sent to murderous dictators,many of whom committed genocide on their own people.Is it any wonder that the desperate citizens of Guatamala, Nicuragua, etc. are fleeing their country in huge numbers.?
26
Wise decision? Even a rat knows when to leave a sinking ship. Only in this case it was the rat who caused the damage.
13
If Iran was assembling a military force nearby, and flying a reconnaissance drone fourteen kilometers outside American costal limits, isn't it obvious that we'd react with force - probably greater force than shooting down an unmanned drone? As another opinion piece in today's Times makes clear, many Iranians feel that they are already at war. Probably some are beginning to think: "Bring it on."
10
Gosh, who knew that foreign policy and military action could be so complicated?
21
I no longer much fear a war with Iran in the next 48 hours. We have moved into a stalemate very similar to the one we've had with NK for many months. But it's a much more uneasy stalemate. NK has not damaged tankers or shot down an airliner-sized American drone. We have not been 10 minutes away from war with NK.
But even more troubling are the internal fissure within Iran and within the US. The hard line factions in Iran are ready to fight -- in fact, they are fighting proxy wars right now. The moderate faction seeks only a return to the accords that Obama and the West, together with China and Russia, gave their pledge to. In the US, Bolton and his crew want to fight. A great many Republicans believe this would be a political disaster for them.
Now who is the strong, calm, deliberate far-seeing statesman overseeing all this turmoil? Donald Trump.
It's a stalemate that can't go on indefinitely. It could explode at any time. The stock markets of the world seem to believe this won't happen. Perhaps Trump hopes that around May, 2020, he can offer an olive branch to Iran, a sort of "peace with honor" initiative that helped Nixon get elected. It could work, because everybody will be grasping at straws by then.
7
Roger, you wrote this piece with such passion that for a second I thought you were Iranian. And I mean that as a compliment, because it proves you are a man of the world who can see things from the viewpoint of others.
If there is a war, Iranians will overwhelmingly blame the U.S., and will support their regime to prevent the chaos caused by the U.S.A. in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen. The last thing Iranians want is for their proud country to transform into a bloody playground for Al Qaeda and ISIS. We don't want our women raped, our men burnt in cages, our museums looted and, not least, our 200 churches and synagogues burnt to the ground.
I often, very often, wonder whether U.S. politicians have swallowed a slow-acting suicide pill. The Saudis, of all people, are your friends and allies? Israel is a 'democracy' observing human rights for their own Israeli-Arabs, not to mention their neighbours whose lands they are stealing blind?
The U.S.A. has some strange bedfellows.
26
The ironic tragedy of this whole mess is that Obama had quietly and skillfully sown the seeds of regime change in Iran. As has been pointed out, Iran has a fairly young and educated population. They want to be part of the world and have all the goodies we have here in the west. With the relaxation of trade sanctions life would have gotten better and the hardliners who would have benefited the most would have moderated to the point where they would have become irrelevant. Thus you could have had regime change without war and made money at the same time. Considering that 50 plus years of sanctions and an embargo haven't accomplished the intended result in the tiny nation of Cuba, it does seem the US is fulfilling the definition of insanity i.e. doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
31
Good on him for not listening to those who yearn for conflict. He's not all bad- contrary to what many readers and writers on this site seem to believe.
... we shall see if you are correct by observing his actions yet to come.
11
We are still hovering around a situation that is fraught with risk and danger beyond our imagination, and we are still under the control of an administration with zero credibility, led by a sociopath and armed with weapons capable of destroying all human life on this planet. Our only hope is in devout prayer to a forgiving God.
Please Lord, have mercy on us. Redeem us all, poor sinners, and take down this administration in the name of Jesus Christ, in whose name we pray, Amen.
7
With yesterday’s two bombshell revelations Trump may want to start a war with Iran to “wag the dog”. The two are (1) credible charges Trump committed rape in New York (which has no statute of limitations); and (2) Sean Hannity was Trump’s go-between with the criminal Paul Manafort.
Be scared. Be very scared.
13
Great article. Looks like maybe Putin intervened...
11
If a strike was not " proportionate" to a peice of military hardware, is any loss of life worth it. Can we now expect Trump to pull all of the US firepower and troops out of the region or will we still be " cocked and ready"?
5
From other sources in the Times it seems that Trump listened to Tucker Carlson !
Wow, too bad he doesn’t listen to Mark Shields and David Brooks a little more.
10
Iran attacks US and we’re at fault. Only liberals can reach this convoluted conclusion.
1
Have to love the way the NY Times frames the articles by its opinion journalists. The top headline characterizes President Trump as "slouching" toward war with Iran and that it's a "disgrace". The sub-headline, in smaller font, speaks to his having made a "wise decision".
After reading the opinion piece - based on the views of former Secretary of State John Kerry (unsurprisingly negative toward President Trump) - it seems odd that the sub-headline font was not reduced even further and made even tinier.
One can easily imagine the debate in the editorial offices of the NY Times - "Gee, we can't possibly say something positive about President Trump. How can we fix it?"
In developing military ops alternatives, the estimation of casualties would be part of the first discussions hours, days, even months before finalization and implementation.
Trump's story of he being the first one to ask about expected casualties in the final minutes of an op in progress is not credible.
He'll be talkng this up on the campaign trail till next November - the only reason the scenario was created in the first place.
12
Russia the mastermind is at it again.....
5
Hate to say I told you so, but .....this morning it turns out Fox News saved us! I thought it would be Coulter, but it was Tucker Carlson.
3
This is a fight that many Americans have been itching for since the Shah was overthrown and 52 Americans were held hostage in our own embassy 40 years ago.
Lets imagine for a moment Trump had not called off this attack. Is it probable that Iran would declare war against the United States?
Because, from here, another attack on our interests this hypothesis will reemerge.
We need to ask ourselves: Do we want any part of this or not? If not we need to disengage from the Persian Gulf entirely. Otherwise we will confront this issue again
3
Since he gets his information from TV, perhaps President Trump has watched "The American President", which showed a struggle to evaluate the pros and cons of proportional response?
Michael Douglas for president!
2
Trump is crazy but not crazy enough to attack Iran. All the noise I heard that he gave order to strike and then backtracked is nonsense. Trump doesn't have a verifiable knowledge of Iran's military capability, so it is too much of a risk to take.
1
Trump is crazy but not crazy enough to attack Iran. All the noise I heard that he gave order to strike and then backtracked is nonsense. Trump doesn't have a verifiable knowledge of Iran's military capability, so it is too much of a risk to take.
1
It was disgusting to see trump's interview where he breathlessly described every detail of his heroic presidenting.
Hey, Iran! Here's how it all went down, told to all by "I gotta get all the credit" trump. He is a danger because he needs flattery from everyone, everywhere, and he'll do anything for a chance to join the exclusive Oligarch's Club.
Add the lies, and it's truly repulsive: "I asked, all compassionate like, how many people would lose precious life, and they didn't know. I'm the one who asked, ME. They went away to confer and came back to tell me 150. No way! Muslim lives matter! So I bravely called my generals and my centurions back from the brink of battle! Totally all me."
My military family are mostly trump supporters, but he continues to slap the military around to make himself look good, and they have gone from excusing him to wincing, now to anger. Remember when trump froze pay for lazy, no-good federal employees, drawing cheers from his base? It's amazing how many forgot that soldiers ARE federal employees!
trump is a cowardly liar, unable to see the connection between a free press and "his military". His adoring cult base are unable to see the pathetic marketing from President BoneSpurs, as he accuses Democrats of hating 'our veterans, our military'....
The hypocrisy - it's crazy making!
17
Very lucid analysis. The main beneficiaries of this cooked-up standoff with Iran are Israel and Saudi Arabia who are playing the Trump family ego like a violin.
13
Ridiculous scenario if the story is true. How does the dotard get to a ten minute deadline while having no idea of potential casualties, as if they are an afterthought? This fiasco is more evidence that 45* and his crew have no idea what they are doing. Freakn Keystone Kops.
11
Hosing down a fire you lit through your own stupidity is not "wise."
There was no confrontation with Iran. Thanks t the brilliant diplomacy of President Obama and his two secretaries of state, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, Iran was on the way to becoming a more open society and trade partner with the US.
They gave up their nuclear ambitions under the watchful eye of weapons inspectors in exchange for getting their own money back from the 1980s, and were eager to re-engage the world of international commerce.
Republicans tossed that all out the window to "own the libs" by trashing something so carefully constructed by one of the greatest leaders of the last century, and in no small part due to their own religious bigotry and racism
So here we are. Iran will get nuclear weapons. Iranian hardliners are emboldened and can rightly make the case to never trust the United States, other nations take the same lesson, and we have no options.
War with Iran is the worst possible road to take now that the high road has been abandoned.
12
News Flash: Trump averts yet another crises that he created. Another pundit has been fooled into thinking Trump has done the right thing. Slouching toward war isn't the disgrace. The disgrace is creating a problem and then just pretending to fix it when you're actually making it worse. The disgrace isn't that Trump is doing it. The disgrace is that we have not put a stop to this reckless behavior. We are better than this.
11
If President Bone Spurs has the stupidity and hubris to swagger and boast his way into another needless disastrous war in the Middle East, he and the Republican Party will wholly deserve the political tsunami that will wipe them off the electoral map in 2020. To think that anyone should die because Iran shot down an unarmed drone is inexcusable, especially since no one believes it was in international waters. How does anyone think the US would react if a hostile foreign power were massing military forces off our shores and flying drones provocatively close to our airspace? Trump and his chickenhawk team are playing with fire. And the dead won't just be Iranian if it all blows up.
8
Wars in the Middle East are not winnable. When you have Russia and China backing the bullies doesn’t help . Pope John Paul said it best sometimes it takes nations thousands of years to realize they want to be free. Before any conflict we must talk at all cost as war is not an obit on. You cant win in that part of the world or anywhere really.
3
What is the end game???? Does Trump and his band of neo-cons really believe they can remake Iran into a democratic ally of the United States? Having lived in foreign countries, I just cannot understand how American policy makers, mostly Republicans, believe they can transform cultures that are older, much older than ours. You would think after Vietnam we would have learned a lesson about culture tampering---but no, we continue to mettle with cultures that are highly resistant, as they should be, to our perception of how they should behave and govern.
6
"It would place Americans at risk across the Middle East..." And likely in the southern hemisphere, as Iran has reached into South America as well. Iran is decently global in its reach now. It lacks things to make it a truly effective force in such places, but a war with Iran, or rather a series of aggression's with them in and around their nation, will likely trigger sympathies closer to our home that will cause us pain.
Iran is this generation of Bolton's, Pompeo's, Grahams, etc, Cuba. Their hatred of a place, and a govt,and likely its people, no matter what they say, has blinded them. Full stop.
Their POV is heavily influenced by the anti-Iran propagandists in various think-tanks and media outlets like the Defense for Democracies. Which is anti-Iran all the time, and has in roads with Bolton, and his minions.
Pompeo is simply a pompous jerk, as his name implies.
Plus we have a Defense Dept that leaderless, and its falling on the Pompep-Bolton bromance to take a bigger role. All compounded by a Republican Senate that is feckless and wholly unconcerned with their jobs, much less the realities of events.
Should things go really bad, it will be on the shoulders of the Senate and Trumps WH. Period.No blaming Obama, HRC or illegals. And if the US voters dont get angry and vote these charlatans out...then say good-bye to the US of A.
We won't survive another Trump term, or another protracted war, esp.with Iran. We're done.
8
'Trump’s Slouching Toward War With Iran Is a Disgrace'
A disgrace owned by the American people. Control your dog.
6
Roger Cohen, in his reflexive hatred of the President will say anything and write anything, adjectives especially, without really thinking. To conflate the totalitarian mullocracy that controls Iran with a "proud and ancient civilization" that is, or at least would be Iran, under other circumstances is prima facie absurd, even silly. Indeed, that proud and ancient civilization is desperate to surface, and will do so only if America - because Europe cannot be counted on for anything – is relentless in its campaign to undo the murderous and terrorist dictatorship in that country. Roger Cohen is in lockstep with the self-serving, supercilious, cowardly, and greed-driven EU which is his true ideological home. He may now be a US citizen, but he sure as heck doesn't think like one.
2
This is really the tail (Saudi Arabia and Israel) wagging the dog. Our stable genius is being played. However and on the upside, only manifest incompetence which unfortunately is dangerous, will bring this administration of fools and lackeys down.
6
If Trump starts an illegal war by attacking Iran, THEN CAN WE IMPEACH HIM??
3
Let me understand this. For over 8 years, we had an administration that placated and allowed the expansion of nuclear weapons in the hands of these people. Like in North Korea, we shut our eyes, forked over millions and cowered in the corner. yet, the American Media sat there and sung the praises of the Obama Administration. No good came of it. As a matter of fact, in all instances we looked like fools. Yet, the media was thrilled. Mr. Cohen, in his attempt to portray Trump as an idiot, (What else is new), misses the whole point. Since Trump was elected, the treats in the Middle East are far less. the caliphate which was expanding under Obama, is all but gone. Bombings every day have become a monthly occurance. Israel, while hated by this paper is stronger. Just look around, what happened to the daily explosions? Mr. Cohen should rethink his position. The world is safer in an area where there is no safety. Those running Iran know Trump would have attacked, that is all that is really needed. As for the Obama deal with those countries, torn up and trashed. For good reason.
1
Funny... The peace-loving Trumpies were the same ones who eagerly willed themselves to believe Saddam was behind 911 and supported our catastrophic war in Iraq.
3
When you always attempt to put out the fire you started, your motives must be seriously and continuously questioned. No wonder Trump idolizes dictators such as Kim Jong-un and Putin, whose words are always untruthful and whose actions are brutally consistent.
Vote.
3
It's been a 40-year prophecy worthy of any in the bible that WWIII, should it happen, will have its match struck in the Middle East.
And what of the innocent people who are to pay the price in lives, livelihoods, homes, and children harmed and destroyed for the reckless ignorance of an unstable, delusional con artist?
4
Conservatives have been in love with the 'nuke Iran' sentiments of 1979 since...well 1979. They have never let go of it, despite the fact that their revered Saint Reagan, elected on the premise of toughness toward Iran and the like, did nothing to achieve 'victory' over the human beings that Republicans used to love calling 't---lheads.' There are no deep thinkers in this administration, only pseudo-intellectuals like Bolton, who want to complete this modern day crusade, just like 'W' had to complete the job that his father left unfinished...the destruction of Iraq. Everything else being put forward as policy is just rationalization and justification. Another sickening, shameful chapter in US history is underway, driven by wealthy far-right oligarchs, and enabled by the now-accomplished 'stupidification' of the average US voter.
Fun times.
5
Trump is a man who against all odds defeated everyone .. supported by no media power except Rush and Savage and Hannity .. his victory proved there is a God in heaven ..
Dear Mr. Cohen .. are you the smartest man in the universe ?
Calling off strikes was not the act of an intelligent leader. Typical of Trump's disorganized faux leadership and tempered by the likes of Bolton and Pompeo, the world is left in a state of utter confusion with no end in sight.
If Obama did it, undo it. What stupidity.
4
Pompeo/Bolton is Rumsfeld/Wolfowitz part 2. People never learn.
5
Trump has reassured the American people that he was "cocked and loaded" in his faceoff with Iran. The only people egging him on were the usual suspects, all Cowards in their own right: Pompeo, Bolton ( biggest coward of all) Graham ( who was heading for the west coast in case he was needed on the east coast), Sean Hannity ( from his long Island bunker, presumably).
What they forgot was that Trump's slip of tongue , from the military expression, " locked and loaded", was an inadvertent reference to the social wars he engaged in before he was Commander in chief. At that time, the president was indeed, "cocked and loaded", but those enemies was not nearly as challenging as Iran. And Trump never needed advisors to engage in those wars.
5
Another outstanding column! It deftly and soberly considers the Iranian situation from virtually all the relevant angles. My recommendation: To all Democratic candidates about to embark on the debate trail- read it, internalize it, memorize it...
6
This first-rate opinion piece should be carved in stone somewhere. Bravo to Roger Cohen. Only 19 more months to go. Praise the Lord.
10
Mr Cohen you have just provided the case for removing Trump from office due to his mental instability.
7
It isn't a though he called the thing off after it was started--see Jimmy Carter.
Remember the Gulf of Tonkin incident. It did not happen but it would be used to place the the USA in the disaster that was the Vietnam War.
Even if the Gulf of Tonkin incident had occurred, our reaction could not justify the decade of suffering that followed. Shame on President Johnson and President Nixon.
Shame on President George W Bush for the Iraq War.
Now the least qualified man to hold the presidency would go to war over the downing of an unmanned plane. Shame on the American people for putting a fool in the White House.
8
I am in total agreement with you.
3
“He is a bully whose chief interests are his hold on power and his business empire.” Both true, but trump* motivation is actually a trinity: as stated, self-aggrandizement and self-enrichment, but also grudge-settling. He has an abiding, grinding, howling hatred of Barack Obama for having made fun of him, but more importantly for being a man several degrees of magnitude superior to trump*. This of course was the reason to tear up the nuclear agreement (as it was for both the Paris accord and TPP) So he stumbles about, driven by competing personal demons and dragging us along through the chaos.
8
"...the first wise decision..." Trump made. For goodness sake! That is why it is advertised as though he raised Lazarus. Trump has stumbled into a rational choice. That is not reassurance. Even a dunce answers a few multiple choice questions correctly.
Trump, our bully president in a non-TR way, taunted a smaller kid in that kid's neighborhood. Now he realizes there is a Rottweiler in that kid's backyard. A nicer, smarter kid would defend his own neighborhood. Not threaten to invade the other's backyard. Why pick on that kid? Because a carefully negotiated treaty involving Iran and multiple democratic nations had the name of President Obama attached. That is why. Effectively, Trump breached a treaty with which Iran was in compliance. But Trump's history is one of non-compliance with the law. We bear the consequences when our biggest news is that Trump made a rational choice.
By the way: sending 1000 more military into the region is 1000 more potential casualties, not an effective military defense. To be effective, add a up to 3 zeros to that tally, since our allies will stick to the treaty. And have 12 zeros for a tally of the expense of a war. That would have been effective. Announcing 1000 reinforcements Trumpets equivocation and weakness.
Cohen was right. Trump has made one correct choice. One correct choice. One.
4
Mr Trump said he called off the strike after learning that 150 people may be killed. I wonder what the acceptable number was?
10
This sudden baling out was all done for show. This was done to look good in the eyes of the press.
4
I do not think Vladimir would approve of a U.S. attack on Iran. Funny how there are latent benefits from most all situations. Who would have thought that saving hundreds of lives would come from Trump's treason and conspiracy with Russia?
4
The only reason these actions are necessary is because Obama unilaterally decided on his own to put together a very very bad deal that gave the Iranians the cash they needed to sow terror across the region and time they needed to finish up their nuclear program without people lording over them.
THIS is why America does treaties..and not deals.
If the American people are not behind you as President, then you don't make commitments for the American people. We send duly and lawfully elected representatives ranging from AltLefties like AOC and AltRighties like Mike Lee to debate and discuss these issues of critical importance.
We don't give the keys to the kingdom to President Obama or anyone else for that matter.
The sooner liberals and progressives begin to understand the role of our US Constitution and Legal Framework...the sooner we can all get along.
The Iran Deal that Obama did was a horrible horrible crime against America...and all Trump has done is undo it.
If Democrats want to do a deal with Iran, then they should win back the White House and then find a way to ratify a treaty that satisfies most of America. In the Senate, that means you need 60 people who agree with you.
If you can't get 60....for get about it. Don't even think about it.
1
Not conducting an attack and starting a wider conflict in the middle east after your RC airplane get shot down, is wisdom? No, that's common sense - you don't have justification.
It's crazy that the only avenue of influence over this president is appealing to his ego with an "atta boy" for not doing something idiotic - and hoping it will spark some countervailing influence against those driving him.
Our President pours gasoline all over himself and the region and is proclaimed Wise for not striking a match?
They must be laughing in the Kremlin and Beijing after watching this lame face saving school yard ploy of:
" I was sooo totally going to kick their butt... no really.. Seriously! I was This Close!!!"
8
From a marco level, I can’t help but wonder why our foreign policy is so anti-Iran and pro-Saudi. Iran has a democratically elected government with rich civilization that was instrumental in defeating a murderous ISIS. Where Saudi Arabia is a monarchy with dismal human rights, murders its own citizens at their own embassies, and has provided the terrorists of 9/11. It’s time to stop letting Petrodollars and “Dark Money” dominate our foreign policy and the foundation of our nation and democracy. Lets not forget the principles of our American creed of “freedom, equality, justice, and humanity”. I think Trump’s decision not to strike, has saved us from being entangled in a long and atrocious war that would have undermined peace and prosperity for all Americans.
4
A new version of Dr. Strangelove occupying the Oval Office. So the Dr. called it off, that's his version. The truth is not to be.
3
we need to feed the military industrial complex somehow?
2
The US looks deranged to the rest of the world. Trump has the ability to decide on war; this should at least have to go through Congress. Trump is an unstable and ignorant man who should not be making these decisions. And this is an understatement.
6
Roger
- Please don’t borrow phrases from Joan Didion. Give the Trumper credit if he holds off the W. Bush-Cheney war mongers.
My grandson lost a drone in the skies over South Bend and not one Middle Eastern country claimed credit for its disappearance.
1
I give no praise to Trump for calling off the strike. This terrible situation is entirely one of his creation in his short, corrupt and more than anything else incompetent administration. He was Bannon’s puppet before and now he’s Bolton’s.
4
I'm starting to get what's going on right now. At first glance it would seem Trump is always playing offense, when the way we should look at it is he's always playing defense. He starts by going bankrupt, to cover that up the only people who will loan him money are Russian mobsters. Indebted to them when he runs for president (thinking he will lose, he just wanted to put on a show for Obama) he has to coverup the fact he took mobster money be doing their bidding. Next it's one coverup after another, hiring people who are loyal who will keep him safe from jail and humiliation. Trump has hired the only people who would accept his demand of loyalty now and they are taking advantage of it . I think Bolton is a loose cannon who assumes he can do anything he wants, I believe he started the Iran offense and Trump found out and stopped it. My advise to Trump is to fire Bolton ASAP, start doing the right thing with your life, don't go down is history as a loser /coward.
1
This is yet another example of the chaos being caused by this disjointed administration. The President, unprepared by temperament, education or experience, is bypassing normal channels and receiving counsel from hawkish security advisors, Fox TV personalities and sycophants.
Thankfully, military action was called off. Next time we may not be so lucky.
8
To give Trump credit for avoiding, at the final countdown, a war that would cost trillions of dollars, thousands of lives, and millions of refugees is to assume that he is informed and logical. Trump was undoubtedly briefed before the planned attack regarding expected casualties and collateral damage, yet he elected to proceed. What undoubtedly changed his mind was the realization that war with Iran would negatively affect his poll numbers and cost him dearly in his bid to be re-elected and avoid criminal prosecution. Trump never does anything to benefit anyone but himself, and certainly has no concerns regarding loss of life or property. Any public statement by him to the contrary is, like everything else he says, a lie.
10
Pompeo thinks he is Defense Secretary and he might as well be since, at the moment, we don't have one. Bolton, a man who never went to an actual war, has been trying to drag us into this conflict for decades. And the "president" makes one decision which appears to be a moral choice but only after listening to the ministrations of Tucker Carlson that attacking Iran could lose him re-election. Do you see anyone here who should still be in office?
9
@Susan The nominee to be Defense Secretary is a West Point classmate of Pompeo. It looks as though Pompeo is likely the dominant figure of the two.
1
Oh, look. Another opinion piece that tries to defame the President while agreeing with him. How about you offer a solution.. or you can just wallow and predict he loses in 2020.
The solution would have been to stay in the nuclear agreement with Iran & stop bowing to Saudi Arabia and Israel.
6
War with Iran? You mean that big country on the other side of the planet?
Did Iran recently invade the U.S.?
Have I missed the news that Iranian troops have bombed Boston harbor or taken Keokuk?
Has there been an Iranian-led ‘Rape of Copenhagen’?
Has any Iranian killed, harmed or even insulted an American taxpayer?
A ‘war’ with Iran?
And the Congress, the The Supreme Court, the Pentagon and all those billionaires think it’s just a swell idea?
An ignoramus and half a dozen right-wing, never-in-the-military sycophants can all by themselves take the United States of America into a war against a country that 99% of Americans couldn’t find on a multi-colored map… a labeled map…a map labeled in English?
15
Someone must have told trump that if he started a war then there can be no golfing as it would look bad.
2
Calling off the mission was a “wise” decision?
Trump’s decision had nothing to do with wisdom and everything to do with his chances of being re-elected.
I’m happy the mission was stopped, but wisdom from trump is a mischaracterization. I’d call it self-preservation.
7
The first paragraph in Roger's article unfortunately surmises Trump's Iran Policy (such as it is!) perfectly.
Also unfortunately, readers could just as easily substitute 'Iran' for the words, ('immigration, race relations,... the list is long) and our understanding of Trump et al. would be accurate and somewhat pitiful.
3
Let's be thankful Trump chickened out. He really has no clue what he's doing but at least has enough instinct for self preservation to avoid starting yet another of those wars which are very easy to start but very hard to end (see Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, WW 1 and 2). To quote Bismarck "I hate war you cannot control it.
1
Basic arthmetic shows that if the drone was 21 mi from Iran's airspace and the cruising speed is 357 mi/hr, said missile was 3min 40 secs away from entering foreign airspace. Imagine if Iran had a spy plane 3mn away from US airspace. It would be pulverized well before that. Someone thinks someone is an idiot.
5
You forgot a VERY important player in this, UAE. Trump has a golf course there, they were arranging back channels to set up for Russian and the Trump team and they are in business with Kushner as well. They are a huge part of this.
And as far as the strike.....highly unlikely it happened this way at all. Pompeo was to deliver “further evidence” to back up Iran’s involvement with the Japanese vessel. Didn’t happen.
A more probable account was the American people, Japan, Germany and the rest of the world just simply weren’t buying the grainy video and flimsy account by this administration because of all their tremendous lying. They then had to do “something” and that was most likely flying an unmanned drone over Iranian airspace, knowing there would be a reaction and they could say, “See, they’re the bad actor.”
You are correct in that the Iranians which any serious analyst of the Middle East and past presidents know are a very worthy adversary. They are a smart, traditional, old, old country that is very proud. They are not NK. China, no matter what, has NK on a leash. Iran acts on its own behalf with Russian backing. And they are not going to roll over and take it.
Trump is afraid of Putin which we have seen in our elections, Argentina and Syria. So Trump finds himself with one side of the coin he owes his election to (Russia)and the other side who he owes his business (Saudi, UAE). That’s why foreign influence is so dangerous.
3
Iran holds elections and respects the results. Its youth appears to long for openings to the West. Why, exactly, are they the pariahs of the Middle East while Iraqis and Saudis are the good guys? We'll have to ask Dick Cheney that question, I guess. This would have been a golden opportunity for Trump to break new ground, but I guess the financing of the Trump/Kushner real estate empire is a higher priority.
7
Trump called the strike off and I say thank you to him.
20
@Crow, "The arson stopped just after sloshing the gasoline around my house; seconds away from lighting the match. I say thank you to him."
So no, I don't thank trump. He blundered his way into a situation so serious that even HE felt the flames. He backed off. Why would you thank him?
I thank the saner heads that stood up to break Bolton's hypnotic mustache-of-war.
62
@Crow
So we should thank the President for changing his mind at the last minute and not murdering 150 Iranians? He created this crisis and has done everything in his power to empower the Iranian extermists and undermine those Iranians who just want to live peaceful lives. He will not stop until be baits the Iranians into a war. No thank you.
27
@Crow He approved it before he called it off. He does not deserve a thank you. It is clear that he is incompetent and dangerous.
36
Sure, fracking has significant environmental issues, BUT it has made it possible to let go of what essentially the “habit” of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. We should bow out and then let those that need mid-east oil, keep it open. With oil not the issue, we then kiss the mid-east goodbye, for the next 10,000 years. Simple.
2
Leaving the area would be like having a death wish for the U.S. Dollar. Oil is black gold and it’s pegged to the U.S. Dollar. If we leave the Middle East and if we leave Venezuela alone too, it would be like handing China a blank check to take over everything!
Our level of incompetence is overwhelming. The deal-maker got it backwards. If you have a nuclear deal in place the operative side is reportedly complying with (Iran), you go to them with a proposal to amend the deal by offering sweeteners and a few provisions we desire. Instead, we voided our commitment to the existing deal and were surprised when the other side exceeded the previously negotiated limits. Likely baffled by our incompetence, the other side felt no need to limit their own offensive approach to neighbors. Ours is The Gang That Can’t Shoot Straight! Let alone the Iranians.
6
The Chinese have a saying, “When the talking stops, the battle begins!”
The last WAR we actually won was WW2. Since then, our batting average is 0.
After seeing Trumps newest so-called Rally which is a replay, with the same actors from 2016, I seriously doubt the resolve of not only the Republican Congress, but all those so-called Trump supporters.
JOE BIDEN, PLEASE don’t let anyone stop you from being CIVIL, regardless of anyone who is determined push you out!
1
This paragraph below stands out, and provides clues to the deceit and bumbling found within it.
"Pompeo has been a willing dance partner in this exercise. He has declared a determination to drive Iran’s oil exports to “zero” and energetically pursued the grotesque objective of conflating Iran, a Shia nation, with Al Qaeda, an expression of murderous Wahhabi Sunni extremism. In fact, as former Secretary of State John Kerry told me, “Iran has helped in the war against the ISIS,” another Sunni terrorist group.
5
When you elect a person with zero intellectual curiosity, no interest or expertise in history and an inability to comprehend complexities, this is what you get. Great on the arena stage. Dangerous in the world stage.
4
This is round one. The Saudis and Emiratis are still there salivating over Iran's oil. Netanyahu hasn't given up, on the contrary he will double down on Kushner's influence in Trump's ear; but Trump has snatched defeat from their jaws of victory
In my opinion this strike was called off because of the growing demand for impeachment. Anti-war crowds would have marched on Washington. Pelosi couldn't have staved off impeachment any longer. And as Mueller's findings come to light Trump would be rendered powerless.
3
@betty durso The Republican Senate suddenly getting interested in trying and convicting Trump in the event of an Iran war? Majority Leader McConnell seems to be one of the few political leaders in Washington with an effective two-way relationship with President Trump, but I doubt that he's warned about war with Iran in the absence of specific Congressional approval. But who knows? Perhaps only whoever taps the phone calls.
Pelosi has rejected House censure of Trump in favor of investigations to build on the Mueller report and other very serious concerns, potentially to lead to impeachment. But the election is sufficiently close to be the main option, along with replacing Republican Senators with Democratic ones to ensure the dismantling of Trump's regulatory and appointment initiatives.
1
The strike preparation and initial execution with a pull-back at the last minute, and especially the reason given for the pull-back, is one more attempt at getting the Iranians to negotiate.
Trouble is, dictatorships are in a permanent macho tough guy euphoria bubble. No one in the leadership dares to propose negotiating with the great Satan. They all know that they are showing their strength and that the great satan enemy is showing weakness because they all say so, and they all agree. They are all pumped up emotionally, back-slapping each other, and celebrating their victory. Never mind that the economy killing sanctions will continue, and never mind that their behavior greatly increases the risk of their regime's destruction.
We can only hope and pray that Trump leaves it that way and that if the Iranian attempts to shut down oil shipments in the Persian gulf continue, it will finally get other countries to step up and apply economic pressure and other measures to influence Iran. Bottom line is that we should no longer be the world's policeman. We cannot afford it anymore. Our nation's economy is being hollowed out by military expenditure, and the shrinking of the middle class. Our infrastructure is crumbling but we don't have the luxury of rebuilding it, a sign that we are slowly becoming a massive third world nation. This is how all empires end. To paraphrase Frederick the Great, those who try to defend everything, defend nothing. Time to put America first.
5
I fear that Trump having done the right thing here constituted a one-off miracle. If Tehran were to shoot down another drone (and I wouldn't put it past our feckless leader to deliberately send one into Iranian airspace) I'm convinced that he'd let his testosterone override the good sense he demonstrated on this lone occasion.
74
@stu freeman
Exactly. As in, "Don't get your hopes up."
3
@stu freeman
Testosterone? Bullies don't have any???
3
P.T. Barnum had his Jumbo to draw in the crowds. Ever the showman himself, Mr. Trump regularly brings out his parade of enemies from Iran to "fake news" to "Crooked Hillary" and now glosses over his image with a patina of restraint.
I cannot argue with restraint in all things, especially military action, but I must offer a final tip to Barnum's hat with this recommendation for Mr. Trump: This way to the egress, Mr. President.
1
Thanks for this excellent piece. Trump's stupidities are too often laughed off. In fact they increase instability and the risk of war and make it much harder for the US in future to play any constructive role. Contrast the measured diplomacy of Obama/Kerry with the utter foolishness of the present incumbent. What a fall there was!
4
I wish people could give Trump praise for calling off these strikes. Trump is a strange cat. There is no doubt about that, but he has never been a neo-con war monger on like so many GOP foreign policy people.
We should be praising Trump for this first and foremost. Thank God.
I believe Trump knows he is in over his head on the military and that is why he dances around things. Maybe this will even turn him against Bolton and the neo-cons.
The point is articles like this are counter productive. He did the right thing. Give him credit. It will pay dividends in the long run and it is simply the right thing to do.
1
@Award Winning Teacher, Trump pulled out of a deal that stabilized a potential conflict and replaced it with nothing.
Then he started to push Iran around, making threats and trashing their economy.
And then he increased the US military presence in the area and gave the Iranians a perfect target for their frustrations, which the Iranians then shot down, enabling them to claim a victory against their perpetual enemy, the US, and causing Iranian breasts (even those opposed to the government) to swell with pride, strengthening the hard liners.
No, I won’t thank Trump for not launching an attack. It was his own stupidity that got us into this bind in the first place.
2
@Award Winning Teacher No one forced him to hire Pompeo and Bolton. No forced him to kowtow to Bibi and MsB. This mess is on him.
2
No one seems to fully appreciate the chaos and conflict within the former US administration that led to this perilous state. There is every indication that the high US military command laid down the law to Trump and his bevy of frothing neocons and the moneybags Sheldon Adelson, who tells Trump what to do.
The military would doing the dying in this contrived conflict. They have been wargaming it for 15 years now, and every outcome is disastrous for the former US, Israel, and the Arab oil states. Once started, it will rapidly progress to a general Mideast war. Hezbollah will fire its 100000 missiles at multiple Israeli targets, Haifa, Tel Aviv, and the Dimona nukes base. The Persian Gulf will become a complete war zone, completely disrupting shipping even if the Iranians don't mine the Straits as they can easily do.
The US will be doing all the fighting and taking the major casualties, along with Israel and Saudi Arabia. There will be no "allies" willing to fight, not the Brits, Saudis, or Israelis.
The only way the former US is going to "win" is with a huge land invasion of Iran. Military men estimate that 600,000 plus troops will be needed.
The draft will have to be reinstituted, and this will severely destabilize the former US.
The problem is the neocons and the neocon media and neocon moneybags don't have a way of extricating themselves from this situation they have created.
Bolton, Pompeo, and Adelson don't have friends in the former US military.
5
The genius of theatrics once again got a chance at showmanship that serves to boost that precious ego. What better way to get on the global stage and show ones compassion for the possible death of your enemy over a minor incident and refer to it as "not being proportionate" to the circumstances. A presidential statement as ever spoken from this president. First create a crisis with an authoritarian policy then defuse it with an act of presidential rationality.
The only thing that topped this ego performance was the lies perpetrated by W and C over the case of WMD's in Iraq leading to war then orchestrating the landing on an aircraft carrier declaring "Mission Accomplished"
2
Mr. Cohen is right on the money; we don't need to lurch into another war in the Middle East, led on by faulty intelligence, probable outright lies (recall the various tales spun before we invaded Iraq) and likely collusion between MBS and Bibi. After the "slam dunk" certainty of Iraqi WMD, the al Quaida and Iraqi "meeting" in Prague that never took place and the "yellow cake" fairy tale who in the world would believe anything coming out of US intelligence agencies? And why are we spending the equivalent of three Gulfstream G500s on an unmanned drone? Is there no sense left in DC?
3
Here's a cynical (and possibly correct) take on Trump's 'decision' to call off an Iran strike — wrong timing, too early.
Donald Trump is always campaigning, always working on the con (the real estate deal, and not just any real estate deal ... a New York City real estate deal, a con if ever there was). He will get more bang for his death toll around about October of next year. An October surprise. To mention it prompts a rolling of eyes. But it has happened before. And an October 2020 attack would push the economic blowback to after the election. And this is the most cynically anti-democratic Republican Party in American history. And Reagan is still the idol of Republicans.
2
I would rather have President Trump trample them by withholding access to capitalism than hoping for a good outcome with Obama's apologist strategy.
Iranians get the rulers they put it with.
Trump is doing just what he said he would.
You say it coming now live with it.
We are dealing with a lot of derangement syndromes these days. Some pertain towards countries such a China or Iran, some towards policies such as trade (economic), border (security) and climate crisis (environmental).
The derangements have much in common: it’s denial of reality, short sighted (profit over investment), left hemispheric dominance (paranoia and loss of big picture), nostalgia (dreaming of a non existent glorious past) and misdirected memes and biases (xenophobia, misogyny, paternalism, racism).
What’s different to let’s say 15 years ago? The dominance of social media. We don’t know how to control the, how to rein them in, how to make them work to our benefit.
Asking for proof? Look no further than 140 letters.
Twitter created the “monster” we now call our president.
2
Don't worry, Roger! Trump is smarter than you and was a business man who knew how to cut the loss. If Trump's goal is to get a better nuclear deal that permanently stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb and stop terrorist activities across the Middle East. He is trying his way to achieve that goals. Obama gave Iran a lot of money and agreed that Iran could develop nuclear program after 10 years. No country in the Middle East thinks this was a good deal. It strengthened Iran. So, tension is natural and Iran is behaving very badly, isolating further from others. It is better to have a war if it is not avoidable, when Iran is weak and has no nuclear bomb. Obama and Kerry policies would have made Iran much stronger and a nuclear power within the next 10 years. Trump policy is working the opposite way. By the way, Roger, did you support attacking Iraq?
1
@Alex E
Obama gave Iran their own money that was blocked in the US. It wasn't a gift.
2
@Joe43 I would agree to postpone my nuclear program for 20 years, if you release the blocked $150B and pay me $1Bin cash. I know I can work secretly on my nuclear program during that 20 year period and pay my henchmen using the cash. Thanks again!
@Alex E: Every Trump booster here is evidently deluded about the money returned to Iran. It was their impounded money. Trump screws up everything he touches because he gets the basic facts wrong every time.
2
Would that Trump, Bolton and Pompeo read this column as they would be served a masterful piece on what the real news about Iran is and what a rational, informed and civil diplomatic stance might look like. Trump has only himself to blame for this mess but as we all know he will be the last person on earth to own it or understand why he should. This potential Tonkin Gulf incident underscores how inept and disorganized this administration is - Iran today, North Korea next week. Not very comforting or reassuring despite Trump's self-proclaimed thought and restraint herein.
2
Another masterpiece by Roger Cohen. There is no news analysis or opinion piece in today's NYT that analyzes the situation better. This should be mandatory reading in the halls of Congress and of the White House.
And someone should read it to Trump--he won't get it, but who knows...
3
Apparently Trump uses the same decision-making process for evaluating whether to go to war as he does for everything else in his life: What does Fox News say?
2
Until our leadership recognizes that Saudi Arabia’s Monarchy “is a repressive regime with a hideous human rights record that underwrites” Wahhabism, the theocratic basis of Al Qaeda and ISIS “and pursues interests opposed to America’s across the Middle East.” We will continue to blunder from war to war at the behest of MBS.
Trump has defied the “war camp” of the GOP and may have lost his mojo as a result. Only the next few weeks will tell us if Trump will be left out.
2
With the exception of Jordan, there are no good guys in the Middle East. Prime real estate for a parking lot!
There was just one consideration in the Yo Yo assertions by the President and that was consideration for the Political fall out in the 2020 election.
3
This is a horror show. Trump and his supporters think war is a talking point. As usual, they forget the terrible price paid by those caught in the crossfire. I wish I thought they could be shamed into being civil and rational. They might not have pulled the trigger today, but tomorrow, who knows? The horror show continues.
1
A fiasco from stem to stern. We are living in a reality tv show, where we Americans are the victims of a deluded Trump. Nothing this “stable genius” says is believable. He has his own fantasies where he is the hero, and we Americans and the
world are the beneficiaries — that is, victims — of his delusions. He creates chaos and then rushes to announce a solution. Pray tell how and when will this insanity and inanity end?
1
What makes you think that a strike was in preparation? More likely just another day by the producer of the Donald show. No one anywhere in the world believes anything that comes out of the White House.
Cohen writes - "The Islamic Republic is a repressive regime with a hideous human rights record that underwrites Hezbollah and pursues interests opposed to America’s across the Middle East. "
And the following could equally be true as well:
"The United States is a repressive regime with a hideous human rights record that underwrites murderous Saudi Monarchs, Corrupt Pakistani Generals. Dictatorial Chilean Generals, Religious Fanatics, all who are opposed to Democracy across the World and whose only aim is self-aggrandizement working hand in glove with Wall Street Bankers, American Vulture Capitalists and Hedge Fund Managers.
2
I agree with Bannon that an Operation Iranian Freedom won’t sit well with Trump cultists whose focus remains on the Coulter Vanity Wall, locking up Hillary, and various nativistic pipe dreams. Most of this group is very simple, and can be summoned to action by simple dog whistles. A war with Iran would be more like a screaming siren causing a lot of cognitive dissonance.
2
Roger Cohen isn't qualified to make a judgement call on this matter. He has no military service or real-world experience in foreign affairs or diplomacy. H's just a journalist who has traveled around a bit. Besides, he needs to decide if he is a hawk or dove—his opinion vasilates with the wind of the trend.
@Chip
some people have it in their DNA and feel what is right and what is wrong. They don't need military, or diplomatic experience.
As you can see, most people here have similar feelings.
2
@Chip
So, the journalist is not qualified because he’s only been around but the president is qualified because he’s only been around.
2
Among his many other great delusions, Trump visualizes himself as a military leader of the very first order up there somewhere in world history with Alexander the Great, General Rommel and Attila the Hun.
Before this is over, I wouldn't be surprised to hear him referring to himself as our Supreme General and erecting statues of himself mounted on horseback on the White House lawn.
3
I hate the headline of this article. Trump calling it off at the last moment is maybe a milli-second of rational thought, but it should not be considered wise. "Wise" would require planning, an endgame, and consideration for the welfare of potential victims. It's just too much for yet another Friday night news cycle that should be tame. "Wise" would have been not to force out the diplomats who could negotiate an exit from this insane Trump-created moment. But, we're way past the point that we could call on them. Trump has purged them. This is a moment created by and for Trump so he has a new talking point for his base. It's blatantly self-serving and yet nobody is calling him out on the most dangerous thing he has done yet. I am beyond stunned.
2
His Mytilenaean moment. Philosopher King!
How can we continue with trump, Bolton, Pompeo,McConnell, etc.?
trump lied about the real reason he stopped this strike on Iran. He stopped it to help his re-election bid.
He is destroying the lives of children at our southern border.
He refuses to uphold his oath of office (First Amendment rights are actively being cast aside - Free Press, the right to protest).
He supports a dictator who attacked us, another one who murdered one of our citizens.
Impeachment now, before we completely lose our democracy.
Republicans, wake up and do your real job. You are not in Congress to be a cheerleading squad for trump.
1
How very proportionate all:
Child separation as a revenge punishment for immigration.
Trillions in tax cuts for the 1%, zilch for the rest.
If you're a star they let you do it.
Near-incessant golfing and personal enrichment on the tax payer dime.
If they offer dirt, I'll collude again.
A private server? Lock her up!
From a Muslim country that the Trumps don't do business with? Travel ban.
A shutdown ruining business lives depending on an open government, solely pulled off for grossly miscalculating the leverage of your extortion shtick.
Denying and falsifying science that tells it as it is and will soon be, just to protect polluter profits.
Disruptive trade war for the joy of disruption.
When they make obscene gestures, they will be shot out of the water.
The Saudi become top secret brandnew nuclear weapon technology in exchange for them immensely enriching the Trumps.
I don't like people who get captured.
I got bonespur in the monument for my unknown soldier foot.
He knew what he signed up for.
Do we need a new Nobel "Peace in Anguish" Prize for perpetual last-minute chickening out of self-fabricated crises no matter the shambles left?
War is the extension of the economic war that the looters of the universe wage upon us all and it is forever escalating (from) the context of religious bigotry. Is there a thing that FoxNews is calling for that Trump hasn't followed up on? You can't forever threaten and pull out.
There will be war. Ugly, disproportionate war.
3
It is absolutely wonderful to see the NY Times allow an article that does something besides sell and push another pointless war in the Middle East in the name of Israeli security and Saudi oil.
Thank you.
The thousands of young, poor Americans that would die owe you if this column matters.
And, if China and Russia decide enough is enough when we invade another country for no reason, woe is all of us.
3
Generally a balanced article. However -
What surprises me is that the lives and suffering of millions of Iranian people, should a war break out (not to mention the barbaric sanctions), do not get mentioned. Only the disadvantages to the US. A bit selfish.
Iran became America's enemy when the Iranian people got rid of the shah, who was put in power by America. His oppressive regime could not be tolerated any more by the Iranian people.
( BTW - this shows that the Iranian people can get rid of a regime they do not like. )
In recent times, the enemy status is more to do with Israel feeling insecure. It is perhaps time to re-assess this policy, and tell Israel to look after itself.
1
Thanks for saying it. There are times I feel like a voice in the wilderness
5
I'd be interested to know what the Democratic presidential candidates think about the situation. The debate on the Democratic side has so far been focused on domestic policy. What are there foreign policy positions like?
4
I find it astonishing that DjT believes he deserves accolades for this debacle.
And it is more astonishing that he is receiving it after pulling back on an engagement that never should have been considered.
6
The first thing that needs to be clarified is how those drones fly in international waters. Do our submarines cruise in international airspace?
1
Trump is right to be skittish of foreign interventions.
Where he has been wrong is his belief in bluster and unilateralism. And in his trust in Putin, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
Complex world problems require alliances. With friends.
6
The negative consequences of Trump's trashing Obama's policies (Iran Nuclear Deal, Paris Climate Accord, Clean Air Act, Affordable Care Act, et al) are becoming more palpable with each new totally avoidable crisis. It turns out that settling personal scores and owning the libs are not replacements for actual effective policy. Who knew?
8
Trump could care less about human life other than his own (and maybe Ivanka's). It's obvious that he changed his military strike decision based on Fox feedback that it might hurt his reelection chances.
But that was yesterday. Today, someone will come on Hannity or Ingraham and say that Trump will improve his reelection chances if he acts tough and kills people. Then, he'll change his mind yet again.
Trump is finally right about one thing -- the world is laughing at us.
15
From hapless dealings with this administration the international community has learned that Trump and his hawks have more brawn than brains.
What’s worse is that they don't seem to learn from history – the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Trump's foreign policy is driven by hubris and conflicting impulses, which is a highly dangerous way of dealing with a combustible region.
He called off the airstrikes on certain targets in Iran, claiming he did it out of humanitarian concern. Since when does he care about human life? Perhaps he should think about the hardships that have taken a toll on ordinary Iranians, following his disastrous actions since he took office.
10
I heard David McCullough say as far as presidents go: the right person, the wrong time. The wrong person the wrong time. The right person the right time. The wrong person the right time.
We are with the wrong person at the wrong time for sure.
8
@David J. Time will tell. Trump silenced ISIS, brought North Korea to the table, and put Syria and Iran on notice. Heck of a first act compared to his predecessor who despite his oratory skills did little on the international stage other than allow the assault on the US Embassy in Benghazi, permit Iran to restart its nuclear program, and enable North Korean to complete its nuclear arsenal.
The "....deeply held belief that you cannot trust or negotiate with the United States...." is not only held by Iran. Canadians, Mexicans, citizens of the EU, Japan and much of the world now know this to be true also. In the matter of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (AKA the Iran Nuclear Deal), Iran has shown itself to be more trustworthy than the United States. Frankly, not an outcome I would have expected when the deal was struck in 2015. Having now witnessed America's transactional appraisal and enemies and allies alike over the past three years, all trust is gone. No one really expects the U.S. to stand behind the promise of collective defence (Article 5 of the Washington Treaty) so don't expect a rush of support from traditional allies when the U.S. finally launches missiles against Iran.
10
@Meusbellum
Do we have any traditional allies left? This is not the end but the beginning of the war with Iran. If it looks he will lose his re-election than look out, Iran.
How tragic is it that, whether we go war, is up to two talking heads on trump TV?
3
Trump doesn't care about life. He sees that war with Iran polls bad even among his base. Even they know an armed conflict with Iran could kickstart a third world war which with military recruitment at a low (downside of low unemployment) means a revival of our draft system.
7
The Iran Nuclear Deal Mr. Cohen was a disaster from day 1. Iran is prominent in promoting instability in the region and pushing its influence in Iraq. The attack on oil tankers is an act of aggression by Iraq. The economic sanctions are the only force keeping Iran from waving it's saber. Trumps decision not to retaliate was a cautionary approach to a volatile situation. Iran's next act will dictate America's response.
Trump not Obama silenced ISIS, brought North Korea to the bargaining table, and put Syria on notice. Clinton's ineptness undermined US foreign policy. Let's not forget that the assault on the American Embassy in Benghazi happened under Obama's watch with Clinton in charge as Secretary of State. North Korea was able to complete its nuclear program because Obama and Clinton were too engaged in basking in their own self importance to realize what was occurring around them.
2
@George,
And under Trump US drones fly in international waters! Amazing feat!
1
George,
Donald J. Chaos & Co. are blundering us into another Middle eastern war. You talk about non-nuclear bad behavior by Iran. That could be negotiated as well, but instead Trump and his warhawks tore up the agreement. Now Iran doesn't trust them, so what reason would they have to negotiate a new deal with the USA? By the way, Benghazi was a pin prick compared to the attack on 9/11. Which was executed on Bush's watch. Blue wave 2020!
1
I'm less inclined to believe that Donald Trump called off military action against Iran in this instance because of his concerns over possible civilian casualties than he did because doing so might delay the start of some trip he wanted to make to one of his golf resorts.
In time after time, from family separation to the banning of Muslim immigrants, we've witnessed how little Trump cares about other people. Why should we believe that he has suddenly developed a conscience or had a sudden attack of self-discipline?
12
The best thing to do is to sanction?
The problem with this is: the sanctions really hurt the poor. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is not going to suffer. In Iraq, in 1997, Bill Clinton pushed sanctions and it hurt the poor.
Sanctions only work with the threat of war.
The Iranians have so much chemical weapons, I was told by an infantry soldier, he would flee to Canada.
Nothing is clear as the Iran/reaction story twists and changes every few hours :
Initially it was the Steel Trump with the failesafe point burst of humanity -150 dead too much.
No, it was 3 hours, before launch, he said after the AM reaction to the pre-dawn tweets. How many it will be tomorrow remains to be known - he’s probably waiting for overnight pole numbers to show up.
Still missing from the tale, the altitude and flight path of the usually high-altitude high-speed drone, and whether it was indeed accompanied by a plane carrying 35 military staff, unusually exact numbers from Iran - and a rather unusual practice. Drones are to keep humans out of harm’s way.
Then there were the rather large chunks of alleged drone.
A secret aircraft, flying at high altitude at high speed, containing little metal, shouldn’t leave big chunks behind if shot down.
I expect the last thing it’s programmed to do before hit is scuttle- blow itself to bits.
Which, if the plane was in international waters would have been hard to collect.
Either Trump put out a trophy plane and human bait at low speed and altitude in/seconds from Iranian waters to stir up trouble, giving up some secrets in the process, and risked 35 US lives, or Tehran’s made up a surprisingly detailed and consistent set of lies.
Or Trump was provoking war - featuring 35 dead/captive Brave ‘Merican Officers.
I suspect the latter, with the no- response story changed when the last-minute bit didn’t play well on Fox.
6
It's really too early to start the war with Iran.
Trump is likely waiting until it's closer to November 2020 so that he'll be a "wartime president" at the time of the next election, which will give him a substantial boost at the ballot. Historically it's much less likely to change the Commander-in-Chief during a time of war. Support the troops, etc.
It's almost impossible to believe that this administration actually cares about Iranian deaths.
15
Painting himself into a corner and leaving himself little room for maneuver Trump is obviously looking for an out. He has come to realize the hard way that there is a difference between playing President and being President. Being President means looking out for the interests of the entire nation and not just a base of voters. Complicating the situation is an administration thin on talent. With a bunch of acting department secretaries he is saddled with an acting cabinet. This time he dodged a war, but just barely, next time he might stumble and will find himself with no support at home or abroad. This is a President who is a danger to himself and others.
19
If this nation goes to war with Iran, the whole world is going to suffer big time. The price of petroleum and thus gasoline will skyrocket. It is almost certain that such a war, depending on how intense it turns out to be, will bring about a world-wide depression. No country in the world will ever trust America again. If this country still has any goodwill remaining from its participation in WWII, it will be gone for good.
There simply is no reason for this insanity. There was no good reason for pulling out of the agreement negotiated between Iran and the P5 + 1. The entire administration action with regard to Iran is just out and out nuts.
And then dear Ms. Nancy Pelosi can't even see her way to allowing an impeachment inquiry by her Democratic colleagues when it is so obvious it is needed. The lunacy, the lack of principle in the halls of power in the nation's capital boggles the mind.
14
@Tom Krebsbach: Nobody can see their way past Mitch McConnell's conference of chained puppets. The biggest mystery in Washington is how that drip concentrated so much power.
2
Several commenters have pointed out that any attack on Iran would benefit Saudi Arabia and Israel. Of course. And I can think of at least two good reasons why neither Saudi Arabia nor Israel would undertake war against Iran on its own:
1. It might lose.
2. If it gets bad enough that war seems likely, it can pretty much count on the US doing the heavy lifting.
At least that's what Saudi Arabia and Israel expect. I'd like to see that expectation end, and the only way that's going to happen is if the US makes it very clear that we aren't going to war with Iran to help Saudi Arabia and Israel. They might actually have to be agreeable now and then if they can't threaten to sic their big brother on Iran.
28
Trump has just handed the Iranian regime a victory, and by not responding, emboldened it.
Similarly, the Nuclear Deal, rather than containing the Iranian regime, removed all other sanctions, thus empowering it.
The fact that Iran is a sophisticated 3000 year old civilization with educated people who seek contact with the West, should not be used to justify poorly conceived policy.
There should be no mistake: The Iranian regime is an aggressive theocracy driven primarily by a dangerous Shia eschatology. It is a danger not just to Israel and Saudi Arabia, but also to Europe and the US.
The approach of containment "waiting it out" until the regime crumbles under its own incompetency, may have some legitimacy, but the Nuclear Deal did not achieve that, and must end.
3
@Eitan -- Fight your own wars.
In this case, since you can't, make your best compromise peace. It was done, and it was undone by Netanyahu's demand.
Climbing in bed every night with the murdering Saudi prince and Wahhabism is so comforting. Not.
2
@Mark Thomason
We, unlike many US allies, can fight our own wars, and we will welcome peace when it is a secure one that ensures our future - and not before.
And just so that you understand my position, we are grateful to the US for its steadfast support, but the last thing we Israelis need is for Trump to bumble into an ill advised and ill prepared war with Iran.
1
I suspect Trump backed away from war principally because aides told him it would hurt his re-election chances. I doubt that, but I don't really care what his motive was. I am happy that we are not getting into a war with Iran.
I expect tougher sanctions on Iran, and considerably more distrust from Iran, but there's not much trust in either direction anyway, and there's not much Iran can do about sanctions. I anticipate that Trump will drive Iran closer to China (and, to a lesser extent, Russia) -- probably he already has -- and that we'll see Iran doing more "barter" deals in an ultimately futile effort to overcome US sanctions. In the end, sanctions will work and we won't get bogged down in another "forever war" in the Middle East.
It's not clear to me that Trump's critics are faulting him for being indecisive (which he was) or for not going to war. Whatever his critics' motives may be, I think Trump is going to end up getting a big-time boost from this.
I think Trump only cares about another term in office. He knows pretty well that an attack on Iranian targets will be followed with Iranian attacks on US targets and after that, there's no backing down, he simply can't afford to look weak and his base will never forgive him for a new war in the ME which means he will lose the 2020 elections.
His opponents are already taking advantage of his short-sighted decision to pull out of the JCPOA.
Acting as a brute has made him untrustworthy in the eyes of his allies and he needs the backing of the international community for a response to Iran.
Iran has influenced elections in adversary countries by unorthodox measures for about 40 years now. Examples are Carter's reelection campaign in the US and Mitterrand's reelection campaign in France. Trump will remain inactive until his reelection is secured. Bolton, Pompeo, Netanyahu, MBS and MBZ on the other hand, will try to prepare the means for a confrontation, namely by creating an atmosphere in which an attack on Iran is justified and the international community is on board, whether by pressuring Iran to lash out or false flag operations of their own design.
It should be kept in mind that the whole crisis began with Trump's unilateral decision to pull out of the JCPOA, the reimposition of sanctions on Iran, the designation of IRGC as a terrorist organization and deployment of a carrier strike group to Iran's backyard on the false and unproven pretext of an imminent threat from Iran.
9
@Hossein
I think you are exactly right...
He is a blind slave to what he thinks his uninformed base wants... How does the spineless, immoral Republican party (as of 2019) fit in to the analysis?
1
Anyone notice the poll numbers for Bushes I and II when they went to war in the Middle East. With an election season coming, you can be sure that's what's on Trump's mind. Plus he wants bragging rights for making the sands "glow in the dark"
6
The article states that that is the opposite of what Trump’s base wants. They do not want an interventionist.
3
Even if the base doesn’t want war, they will support him at the outset and only become disillusioned with time.
Timing is very thing for tRump’s reelecttion campaign, which just kicked off.
Are there still senior U.S. leaders who understand that military tactics and strategy do not function like a Hollywood movie; they function like a game of chess?
There is not one clear course of action—like ‘blow up the mother ship and all the bad guys die’ to save the day. There are moves that trigger counter moves—and a range of results.
The Middle East aka the Mother Ship of All Oil is at a delicate point. Within 20 years, many nations will shift to renewable energy, and dependence on oil will become a thing of the past. The financial reverberations for nations built around oil and natural gas are huge.
Israel is in a very tough spot. Is it preferable for hostile states like Iran and Lebanon to be functional states (and risk the development of new military systems, but maybe see an evolution into friendlier states) or is it better to break such nations into fighting militias that may be more willing to inflict death by a thousand cuts? Is it better to deal with a harsh leader who controls one territory or multiple harsh fighters? Are failed states too weak to be threats or so weak that they become terror havens? There is no easy answer.
But there are many humanitarian and strategic reasons to support functional states. The easy flow of small arms strengthens rogue warlords; sophisticated states don't yet know how to fight asymmetric war. Collapse of state functioning can remove the ability to negotiate peace. People with nothing may risk everything.
5
Amazing. Trump does the right thing. But the Trump haters are out in force trying to paint a picture that Trump did something wrong. I wouldn't be surprised to hear Mr. Cohen and his follower say that it was really Trump who shot down the drone. Trump was right to say that no lives were lost. And what if it was a mistake by an Iran officer. One hundred fifty lives would be just a start to the killing. The question is if Iran realizes they came close. There have been provocations. Boats have headed straight at some of our ships. We held back and they turned around. Now ships have been attacked. That is where the response may not be so muted. We will see if they are interested in continuing the attacks now that they were close to being on the receiving end.
2
Trump didn't do the right thing. he has done a series of wrong things then backed off at the last minute from doing a very bad thing.
His whole term so far has been him causing trouble for no reason, then backing off and claiming that he averted disaster. It's perplexing that anyone can see it any other way.
22
@Ron What "right thing"? It is a crisis of his own making.
2
This comment is an interesting illustration of how tRump supporters rationalize their support for him. tRump makes an ill-considered and in fact stupid decision to commit an act of war, and at the last minute reverses himself. This proves he is a very stable genius!
1
I agree completely with the author. Of course the way it happened points to Trump's unfitness for office but we already knew that.
Trump's one good quality is that he's not a warmonger, in a city that's full of them. His instinct is to avoid conflict and I for one am glad the instinct kicked in, and I don't think anyone should jump on him for calling off what was a disproportionate attack: 150 lives for a piece of machinery that may or may not have been in international waters.
PS The "senior government official' leaking all this is obviously John Bolton, who is furious his war was called off.
5
The fact that Iran is "a proud and ancient civilization" does not justify the aggressive and terroristic actions the Islamic Republic has pursued from its inception in 1979.
President Trump is correct in withdrawing the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear agreement and imposing crippling sanctions on Iran.
The problem is that Trump's short and shallow attention span is ill-suited to his role as commander-in-chief.
Make no mistake, Iran WILL keep pushing and soon enough they will kill American servicemembers, whether on land, on warships, or in aircraft. Then the problem becomes whether President Trump has the intelligence and fortitude to see through a wide-ranging U.S. military action that should seek the maximum degrading of Iran's military forces, especially its naval forces and antiaircraft and ballistic missiles.
@Peter R. -- They made these forces, and they can and would make more. Attrition of specific assets is an endless war plan, bloody and expensive and indecisive. It won't solve anything, and will only make it much harder to solve things any other way.
From a military / geopolitical perspective, an attack on Iran makes little sense. The importance of peaceful functioning in the busiest hub of global oil production ought to be seen as economically and strategically essential.
We should have learned that we have the power to break nations, but not the power to build them. Why do we think it would be good to turn Iran into a failed nation of fighting militias? A new flow of refugees and new havens for militant fighters could be the final straw that topples Jordan and Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Who would Israel negotiate with if there were only dozens of hostile militias on all sides?
Have we forgotten that 9/11 was not an attack by a state, but an attack by a rogue terror cell? Bin Laden was not a member of the Taliban’s government; he had a base in Afghanistan, but he was like Fethullah Gulen (our “guest” from Turkey); we know Gulen is living here, but he is not a U.S. politician, he doesn’t act on state orders, and if he organizes something unlawful, any nation blaming us would either be stupid or looking for a pretext for trouble.
The risk of blowback (U.S. bases hit by guerilla attacks, the further collapse of law and order in the Middle East, the economic shock of oil markets, the unnecessary loss of innocent life, and more) should all be screaming out to us: “Do Not Go To War!”
Why, instead, are we moving toward war as if we’re being sucked into a black hole? Does the United States have an apocalyptic death wish?
22
Re: "...The last-minute calling-off of military action is the first wise decision on Iran the president has taken..."
Frankly...I am STILL waiting for trickle down economics to trickle, down, (Reagan), and anyone, to locate ANY unknown N.-W.M.D.'s in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.!
...Never, mind efforts by a sociopath-draft-shirker to create, then, mediate...diplomatic disasters, makin', said disasters worse / more dangerous, in the process!!
9
Uh huh. And Roger: please tell us based on your infinite wisdom what the situation will be once the sunset clause of your beloved Obama nuclear deal with Iran expires in about another five years, and they are then free to reboot their nuclear weapons program? You think the situation then will be more stable then it is now? Will you -- from the safety of 6000 miles away -- excoriate Israel for needing to take action against a regime that vows weekly to wipe it off the map which would require a second Holocaust? Will you take the same holier-than-thou stance if the president then is a Democrat now faced with the choice of keeping previous presidents' words including Obama's that Iran will never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon; or will you advise some new mental gymnastics to justify slinking away with your tail between your legs telling yourself how statesmanly it all is? Do you really think it'll be any less of a crisis then than it is now? Do you really think the US would still need to show restraint as the mullahs' centrifuges begin humming away and weapons grade uranium starts being cranked out? With Iran having all the ICBMs they've developed with impunity because your vaunted Obama deal did nothing to address that issue; and the UN which is supposed to enforce a ban on the ICBM develop did nothing ... as usual?
5
JW,
Leaving the nuclear deal alone might have led to other deals around the trouble Iran causes around the world. De-escalation is the term used in hostage situations and I think it applies to Iran. Economic sanctions are just shy of an act of war. It inflicts pain on the innocent and guilty in Iran. The US has meddled in the lives of Iranians before with disastrous results. Perhaps we should cancel the sanctions and put down the sabers.
2
The Iranian people are probably the best and most widely educated people in the middle east excepr for IsIsrael and have proud and contiuing Persian (not Arab ) roots.
Then there's the Revolutionary Guard - the Mullahs version of Hitlers SS!
Corrupt -fascist - messianic holy warriors who keep the general population in line at the point of their guns.
And spread Shia (Sunni hating) chaos and violence wherever they can in the region.
They support Hamas and Hezbollah and radicals in Iraq and Yemen and wherever they can.
A much better world without them BUT regime change is impossible so the focus should be on the nuclear bomb issue.
A nuclear armed Iran makes North Korea looks like Disneyland.
As Israel well knows.
3
The Sunnis [al Queda]and the Shiites [Iran] have been at war since the murder of Caliph Ali in AD661.
10
The best way for us to retaliate against those who attacked us on 9/11 is to attack the enemies of those who attacked us on 9/11. - i.e. The Saudis.
Iraq did nothing to us. Iran has done nothing to us, but verifiably comply with a working agreement that Donald Trump, in his infinite wisdom, decided to tear up.
Wars for no reason? Only complete and utter idiotic morons would do such a thing.
I guess watching our GI's get killed en masse from the luxury and security of a king size feather-bed at Mar-A-Lago is our current draft-dodging cowards idea of being "tough".
31
trump is an incompetent idiot and entirely incapable of retaining the office of president. He MUST be removed.
trump is the epitome of the Peter Principle. Google it.
8
I agree DT did the right thing. Also, some good points here and Cohen mentions Iran's continuing murder and terrorism throughout the ME; however, he understates the damage and longer-term threat to legitimate US interests and our allies that Iran's religious zealots represent.
DT is not slouching toward war but rather, courageously undoing the craven and misguided Obama mistakes. It is important to say outloud Iran will NEVER be allowed to have a nuclear capability, not even in 10 years (per Obama/Kerry).
It is clear that the current Iran leadership still believes in destroying Israel and is willing to employ violent means to defeat Sunni Islam. Both of those goals are threats to ME and world peace and US interests. Neither of them can be allowed to happen, whetever the costs.
Obama's bet that in 10 years a growing educated consumer Western-looking population will be easier to deal with overlooks the damage and threat that the unleashed Revolutionary Guard will do during that period.
Trump is wise to tighten the screws now. He has a very wise and cautious Sec of State, as well as a realistic military to help him balance against the neocon Bolton, so all should be OK.
1
What is disgraceful is that the Republican Party would allow an unstable egomaniac like Trump to become Commander-in-Chief with the power to launch a war for his own personal reasons. Trump only has his personal interests in mind be it overturning Obama's treaty or stirring up his fanatic base of MAGA-hatters. The last thing on Trump's mind are the needs of the American people.
Trump wants an excuse to start a war with Iran. It changes the front pages away from the Mueller Report and makes him his dream-come-true War Time Dictator like his favorite heroes. What is needed more than anything is for the Democrats to impeach madman Trump as away of distracting him before he launches a deadly strike on Iran that will result in the deaths of untold thousands of innocent people
9
John Kerry... hmm... why not?
2
You are assuming that Trump made this decision. This goes against everything we've seen in the last several years with Trump. Either some sane person at the Pentagon finally attuned Trump to reality (temporarily) or Iran's close ally, Vladimir Putin, gave Trump a call & said "back off our friends or we'll put the pee tapes on YouTube."
The newest insanity out of the White House is Pompeo's claim that the radical Salafist Sunni al-Qaeda is allied with the capital of Shi'ite Islam. This is about a sane as claiming that the European Jews, Gypsies, German & Polish political prisoners, homosexuals, & Russian POWs were secretly allied with Hitler helping him design the Concentration & Death camps they were soon going to be sent to. This is insanity that plays on the total ignorance of so many of the American people who know nothing of current or historical information about anything that happens outside of our own borders.
18
Not one single American soldier should die to boost the election chances of Donald Trump in the U.S. and Bibi Netanyahu in Israel, or to further the political power grab of Mohamed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia.
Not one single American soldier!
29
Wow! What a great opening paragraph. What a terrific article. Heads are nodding all over the world, including among those old hands still left in the State Department who are suffering under ignorant republican control.
Roger, I wish you were Secretary of State. And that Kerry was president.
9
The welfare of humanity is in the hands of this buffoon! This isn’t a reality TV show! Never mind impeachment! It takes too long. For the safety of all of us it is time for section 4 of the 25th Amendment. Once he is out of office, charge him with whatever Mueller found and put him in jail.
SEE: usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2019-02-14/what-is-the-25th-amendment-and-what-could-it-mean-for-donald-trump
6
Please, please, NYT - please bring to full and center Mike Pompeo's and Mike Pence's delusional beliefs that the End Times are nigh, that they will begin in the MidEast, and that 144,000 chosen few will ascend to heaven. Mike Pence has stacked the White House, and half the judiciary, with these people, who apparently know nothing of history, or that Revelations was written as an allegory predicting the end of Rome and was plagiarized from the one of the earlier prophets (Ezekiel, I believe, who has his very own Book in the Bible).
Evangelicals are free to believe that Revelations will occur tomorrow, but belief does not make fact. Evangelicals forget the history of the ancient world and the context of the times in which the Bible was written in order to make the Bible appear timeless and written by God. In fact, it was gathered as oral history and written by men, translated by men into multiple languages, and then had half of the Gnostic Gospels excised. But when this evangelical nonsense leads to war, to the death of others, to the destruction of others, to the authoritarian crushing of others, enough is enough. Evangelicals such as Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo need to learn to live and let live.
These theocrats do not fear war; they welcome it. They are as delusional as the terrorists who believe they will get to heaven with 40 virgins. This needs to be broadcast from the coast to coast - these theocrats are leading us to war and they don't care who dies.
25
Trump calls the FBI, CIA and other intelligence agencies bad and corrupted when these agencies provided evidence of Russian interference towards the USA's democratic elections. Yet, he uses them when he wants to bully other countries to support his causes. He tries to rule like a dictator and uses our intelligence agencies like they are his gestapo...well, that includes the republican elected officials as well. Stop catering to big oil companies and lead us to where we no longer depend on oil!
3
Roger Cohen "nails it"--i.e., the TRUTH--in the first 4-5 paragraphs of this piece.
4
Someone must ahve shown him McCain singing "bomb Iran" to the tune of "Barbara-Ann"
2
Donald will show his manliness next week, with a strike on Iran, during the Democratic Debates..
It’s always about the Donald
5
The work of an unstable ungenius.
8
Trump should be immediately stopped from indulging in this tomfoolery . Chopping and changing, posing and lying, this man is woefully unfit for dealing with decisions as weighty as combat with another country in a volatile region of the world.
He's playing around like an unhinged fool.
Get rid of him, America ! The world wants him gone.You are becoming a rogue state.
This is really,really serious .
6
It is unfortunate that blocking by the NYT does not allow wider sharing of this important rebuttal to an unwise policy.
Much, if not most, of what the unpredictable man-child Trump says or does is purely a stunt to stroke his massive ego. With such a petulant, underdeveloped personality so close to the launch button, it may be hoping against hope that one of his future stunts won't result in a nuclear holocaust. The world simply can't afford for America to re-elect this man.
5
The military is obeying Trump's orders. Trump is an incompetent psychopath. Why would a sane military obey the orders of an incompetent psychopath? It's way past time to pull the plug on the Trump Show.
6
This is what I wrote to the NYT in connection with the Lead article :
Nice going Trump... your “Obama Moment” will be remembered by America’s enemies ... Now maybe Iran will no longer threaten the US ... maybe no longer threaten Israel ...or the the Gulf countries ... or maybe will not interfere with oil shipments ... or maybe stop testing it’s Ballistic Missiles ...or maybe not enrich uranium ... or give up its pursuit of Nuclear Weapons ... maybe ???... .... maybe N. Korea will give up its Nuclear Weapons ...
Trump had an “Obama Moment” and it will not only reverberate against the Trump Presidency ... but it will reverberate against the USA... No Enemy country will take the US seriously or any Ally rely on US promises or guarantees...
The new Trump doctrine; ‘
Speak LOUDLY.. but carry a small stick’ ...
1
Trump administration: fools all. November 2020 can't come soon enough.
3
Trump The "Bone Spurs" DRAFT DODGER
should try to STOP keeping his UGLY name/face/body on the Front Pages of our media. We all know what a coward he is! He can TALK war, but he cannot face it.
4
“A proud and ancient civilization.” How about a government of religious fanatics and thuggish paramilitary. How about the sadiistic assistance in Syrian killing fields. How about wiping Israel from the face of the earth. Killing 600 Americans in Iraq. Lying about nuclear plans. I say proud of what??
4
A war would be disastrous from Trump politically and he knows it. Sure his base would support him but no one else would and he needs more to win in 2020 and that's all he is concerned about now. Its no secret that he started this mess by reneging on the multilateral agreement that was working. Now he's faced with the consequences but then what did he expect ? I applaud his decision to stand down but he's in a corner now and he's likely to do something rash and/or irrational.
2
The Islamic Republic ( not Iran, the two should be kept separate) is run by a Khomeinist clique of perhaps 200 men whose birthright is rabid anti-Americanism. Khomeini in his political will, which makes interesting reading, told them that without anti-Americanism they are nothing and would soon disappear into irrelevance. That is who the world has to deal with, not the people of Iran, who are in fact hostages. The Khomeinist clique believes that they can outlast President Trump till the next administration. Hatred of the president has blinded many Americans into becoming Khomeinists enablers. Stop it!
2
Bolton has been promising Iranians (many of whom are members of the MKI) for years that the US will change the regime in Iran.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTMh24qlyQA
Steve Bannon's concerns for Trump's base are crocodile tears. Trump's base would gladly give up its sons and daughters for their leader's war, and they would vote for him again over a cemetery of thousands, and tens of thousands. His very ineptitude and ignorance liberates their worst instincts, and by their mob-like fealtty they have endangered us all.
2
The absence of reason stems from a total lack of principle. An unprincipled man well suited for amassing wealth unfit to serve as President. Waltzing around the issue drowning in tweets confused by word salads making statements unintelligible, ignores the simple truth. A man of principle guided by reason forms judgments based on objective facts. Reading daily briefings elementary, disregarding them casual indifference bordering on dangerous.
A man of character or just a character, matters.
7
We, unfortunately, tried an EMPEROR as President --- why not try an Anti-EMPIRE candidate like Bernie Sanders??
2
The self proclaimed stable genius knows enough to know unleashing the dogs of war would mean the end of his reality show - American deaths can't be hidden from view as easily as infants in cages.
5
How much did Trump's golf plans this weekend play in the decision to stand down the strike on Iran?
5
"The last man nearly ruined this place
He didn't know what to do with it
If you think this country's bad off now,
Just wait 'til I get through with it"
Groucho Marx - Hail Freedonia Duck Soup
What else is left to about the Incompetent in Chief?
6
This week save 150 America soldiers Life .,Iran shoot down dome 150 millions dollar far better 150 soldier life or more what next President Donald Trump Administration let tell next .
In NYBAY There Lady that have torch her name Lady Liberty this weekend her light will not shin on New Immigrants you can her children cry hearts broken . ICE will get them. Liberty Lady Give me your tired, your poor Lift my lamp beside golden shore. Done by President Donald Trump.
1
I just can't over it how President Obama used to play 3 dimensional chess while the only game Trump knows is chicken!
6
Any brutus ignoramus may show wisdom by sheer mistake, case in point with our current vulgar bully in-chief. He manufactured this potential armed conflict with Iran; and now, corralled on all sides for hus stupidity, is backing down...unless you think he is putting up a show...conducive to win the Nobel's Peace Prize, a most disgraceful 'North Korea type infringement' he tried before, an insult on reason, and decency, all to satisfy his sick ego.
3
This is by far the most sensible article I've read or viewed. Oddly -- & hard as it is for this liberal Democrat, totally anti-Fox person to admit -- Tucker Carlson's viewpoint tonight is another one to consider.
Weak and indecisive. First letters T.
1
Xcellent essay. The remaining problem is that although Trump sensed the catastrophic bonfire he was about to ignite, he remains incapable of doing the linear and dogged learning required to successfully negotiate with Iran
5
Now that everyone knows he backed down - even if for the right reasons - Trump will feel obliged to do something to restore his alpha male status. Let's hope he doesn't do something dangerously rash.
9
Article forgets to mention the billion dollars that Saudi Arabia used to Paul out Jared Kushner‘s building in New York. Probably Jaron is doing the Saudi‘s biding in urging Trump to carry out these actions. The way he is forcing other nations to Starve the Irisnian economy justifies anything that Iran can do to make life unpleasant for the United States.
1
The only thing that transparency in the Trump administration does is to expose his lies and ignorance. Imagine the Joint Chiefs of Staff presenting the President with options in responding to the shooting down of an American spy drone, without telling the Commander in Chief or he asking about casualties. Imagine that minutes before execution of the plan, he finally asks how many dead can we expect. Then imagine him deciding that 150 is too much. This, we are to believe, is a response by the man who talks about obliterating a civilization.
Trump knows nothing and lies about everything.
10
But isn’t it really true that Iran is a bad actor that needs to be geopolitically challenged? Syria comes to mind. This guy has a spine. Our John Wayne president for better or worse. And he even plays both sides. Impressive.
1
@Richard-- Please don't forget: In Syria, one of Iran's primary goals -- if not THE main reason for being involved at all -- has been to defeat the Islamic State (ISIS, whatever you want to call it).
But why is the US in Syria? For the purpose of stopping Iran. Yes, the same Iran who stopped chanting "Death to America" in the days after its bitter enemy Al Queda brought down the Twin Towers.
Please explain how our actions pass the tests of consistency, morality, self-interest, or common sense.
2
@Richard
his spine runs right up through the top of his head ---obstructing his capacity for wise decision- making.
and extnquishing any grey matter.
SAD
4
"It would place Americans at risk across the Middle East" not exactly, "It would place Americans at risk across the world" would be more accurate, I think.
9
Trump's actions on Iran are what happens when Trump sells US foreign policy to Sheldon Adelson, and Jared Kushner resells US foreign policy to the al Sauds.
7
One hopes that Trump's bone spurs act up again to keep him out of a second war!
5
I served in the Peace Corps in Iran for two years in the 70's, and have nothing but admiration for the Iranian people. They are highly cultured, intelligent and sophisticated. The Iranian leadership, religiously fanatical and an tiny minority of the population, has seized the government. The vast, innocent people will pay an unjustly heavy price for any war with the US. Our leadership (Trump et al) knows next to nothing about this brave country, and is using the created threat to incentivize their rabid base Rust Belt base. So sad!!!
12
When speaking of a "hideous human rights record" it may be instructive to look at some of the low points of Donald Trump's human rights record.
Here are a few:
- tearing thousands of infants and small children away from their parents on our southern border;
- keeping said infants and children in wire cages month after month without returning them to their parents, many of whom have been sent back to Central America without their children;
- denying these children essentials to keep them healthy and safe, including tooth brushes, beds, blankets;
- encouraging armed neo-Nazi fringe groups to come out from hiding and terrorize African-Americans, Latinos, and immigrants;
- stopping any attempts at limiting access to semi-automatic and other military-style weaponry, even after repeated use of such weaponry in mass killings, often in schools and other public places;
- castigating and demonizing Muslims and attempting to ban their entry into the United States, even as students or tourists;
- implementing measures to reduce or eliminate access to the polls by suspected Democratic or minority voters;
- closing women's health facilities in rural areas and denying women their right to control their own bodies;
Need I go on?
15
@Porter
bravo !
6
Its a reality show - nightmare. Do you think that bombing and killing 150 Iranians in retaliation for their destruction of an unmanned drone - a machine - might cause some negative geopolitical blow-back? Well Duh! Does anyone (especially among sophisticated NYT readers) seriously believe that was actually put on the table by our top military career professionals? Killing 150 Iranians over a dead drone? Really? The whole thing was staged. Do we really think that our top Pentagon military people wanted to do that? Seriously. I'm talking about the professionals - not the goons that Trump put in. Trump's tweets are nothing more than Reality show asides - where a character expresses his or her "heartfelt" opinion about "the situation". Oh thank God, Trump saved the day by telling crazy Dr. Strangelove to stand down! Thank God! Really? Seriously? How stupid do they think we are? We should all assume, at all times, that anything we hear from Trump and his minions about anything, and especially this situation with Iran are lies - all lies. That is the only safe assumption. How long are we just going to sit by and watch as this deranged maniac contrive one crises after another to boost his ratings? (That's your cue Nancy.) At some point one of these fake crises will spiral out of control into a real, bigly crisis that will be way beyond the scope of Trump's deranged little brain and beyond the reach of his very clumsy little hands.
13
@Bob IMHO the whole thing came to a stop when Trump had a call from Putin!
4
Cavelier ineptitude... an accurate description of Mr. Trump's behavior as POTUS. Why can't someone disable his mobile devices so he can't access Twitter, lock him in a closet and throw away the key? Americans from all 50 states and many of our Allies would sleep better at night and the world would truly be a safer place.
7
@Leslie374 Agree, but don't forget to kick out Pompeo and Bolton too.
4
The blind, unreasoning hatred of Trump is getting kind of old. Despite the unprovoked destruction of a $130 million drone in international airspace, he, despite your juvenile proclamations that he was aching for a war (notwithstanding the fact that he's pulled the country back from three other wars in only two years), decided not to retaliate because it would cost Iranian lives. And instead of lauding him for this and supporting this restraint, you wade in and mindlessly attack him again. Hatred is not a policy, and your credibility at this point as any kind of journalist or thinking person is nonexistent. You should really simply headline every subsequent column "I Hate Donald Trump" and spare us the alleged nuances.
3
@John Pettimore Could not agree more with you. Trump could give each American $50k and the same people would find something wrong with it. Trump says foolish things at times and is arrogant but this does not mean he is wrong about everything! I am amazed that the never Trump crowd is so blinded by the dislike for the man personally that they can't spend 2 sec trying to objectively evaluate his adminstration's policies and actions.
@John Pettinare A crisis of his own making.
1
Pompeo's wish to drive Iran oil exports to zero would put the Iranian public closer to the point where they would have nothing to lose if war comes. I would prefer an Iran where life is so good that war or provocations would be the last thing on the Iranian wish list.
Oh! that it were so in The White House but our president wants to keep our eyes fixed on his stunts to push the issue of his other crimes off the front page. He knows that his suicidal base would support him fervently in a war against Islam.
6
After hearing about Trump’s missile feint last night I got this sick feeling and started looking for anyone out there willing—to quote Wm F. Buckley—to stand athwart history and yell, “Stop!”
Well, thank God for Roger Cohen—if only the world would read it.
9
The bill for that drone is roughly $131,000,000; let 'em pay for what they've done, like a kid throwing a baseball through a window, and then we'll see what's up.
Wise decision? It's a telenovella to make him seem thoughtful and humane. One of the first things a leader is told at the start of a briefing is the potential for harm to people. He only asked about it at the last minute? Puhlease. If you, or anyone, is fooled into believing this was a decision of conscience, you'd believe Trump has the ability to think more than 10 minutes ahead.
7
He proves repeatedly how unfit for office he truly is. Instead of walking softly and carrying a big stick, he waves a big stick, yells as loud as he can and then does nothing. This shows the true lack of a strategy against a society and people who span millennia and will not bow to empty threats. He created this mess by unilaterally withdrawing from a nuclear agreement hammered out over years and was keeping Iran from enriching more uranium. Now they've decided not to follow that path since the US has proven an untrustworthy partner. He's put the region and the world economy at risk in one swoop. What a legacy...
6
This was a stunt by the con man Donald Trump.
7
Just about everything he does is a disgrace.
7
I don’t believe a word Trump says about this or any other matter. And as for “slouching into war with Iran,” I’d say “bumbling” is a better description. When you elect an ignorant buffoon as president, this is what you get.
7
Trump is incompetent.
He can't even do a gulfoftonkin right.
What are the adults in the room doing?
How long is it going to take?
7
Nice bluff, Don. Good luck with the Chinese.
6
Steve Bannon: “For the Trump base, war [with Iran] would hurt.”
So would tariffs. So would abolishing Obamacare. So would tax cuts for the wealthy. Ad nauseam.
11
@William Barnett -- not true. Trump ran on getting out of stupid wars, which he did, which he was criticized for only by the liberal press. He ran on cancelling NAFTA, which he did, and implementing tariffs, which his base supports. He ran against Obamacare, which no one really supports if you remove Obama's name. And the working class people whose taxes he did cut (he raised them on the comfortable liberal middle class) don't resent the tax cuts for the people who hire them.
A war with Iran will be the Iraq fiasco multiplied by 10. Bolton and Pompeo are going down the same path as the war criminals Cheney and Rumsfeld.
9
President Obama is in the front and in the center of all wars waged by Donald Trump. So, with Iran standing behind and around what Trump really wants to attack, the bully backed down.
1
I am willing to bet we will have to wait to hear what Ann Coulter, et al, have to say before humpty trumpy issues his next big announcement! The man cannot think for himself...”puppet on a string” comes to mind. With Pompous and Bolton pulling one set of strings and Fox News pulling the others.
4
Trump is the classic Arsonist/Fireman. He creates crises where none would otherwise exists through a combination of his tireless gleeful and malicious love for stirring any sludge pond until it stinks, and then playing the hero by wondrously showing up with a sample size bottle of Febreze to show us what a hero he is for saving us from the entirely un-necessary and fetid stench he created.
He is the sorcerer's apprentice from Disney's Fantasia. Dabbling incompetently with forces he has no idea of, and unleashing consequences that we will all suffer for and he, in the end, will have no clue as to how restrain.
Also, Roger, if you think Trump's story about calling off retaliatory military action due to some professed compassion for 150 Iranian lives, I've got a bridge I'd like to sell you. Trump knows through his feral cunning for self preservation, that a war with Iran will be bad for his "brand", bad politics, and bad for his putrid businesses.
4
This is the first time since he was elected that Trump's fear of losing his base by launching an un-necessary war has finally turned out to be a good thing.
His matrix for any decision relates solely to "will my people like it?" Nothing else matters.
An excellent reporting of what is truth.
Very well written indeed.
You folks have quite a mess on your hands.
I am glad this one didn't blow things up and cost the loss of life for all your brave military personnel who didn't bail on service to your country because of alleged bone spurs.
7
@Canadian Trosh -- lets talk about those bone spurs. No, lets talk about Obama's military service. No, Bush's. No, Clinton's. Oh, right, they didnt serve in the military. But only Trumps bone spurs are ever mentioned. And Trump, by most of the others' standards of war-mongering, is downright cutting and running.
It is implausible that the first time Trump was informed of the causality assessment was when he asked "a general" 10 minutes before lift off.
Trump's insulting assumption that we are all gullible ciphers is the greatest injury of this episode.
Trump lies with impunity and will cause much more havoc before his sycophants shout - ENOUGH.
8
@John -- so what if it was 10 minutes or 30 minutes or what. He called it off. Many on the right criticized him for backing down. He did the right thing, but all you can do is call him a liar.
When will the pundits ever learn? The show is the thing. Nothing else matters. All cameras are on the Commander in Chief as he carefully deliberates. Will he pull the trigger? Will he fulfill the wild militaristic dreams of his angry advisers?
The aircraft have launched and are awaiting the signal to fire. Wait, he says. How many Iranian civilians will be killed in the attack? One hundred fifty? Ooooh, that many? That seems a bit, shall we say, disproportionate. Maybe let's call it off. For now, anyway.
A grateful nation sighs in relief. At the last second its wise leader, full of calmness and compassion, has stepped back from the brink of war, just in time to make the 11 o'clock news. Fade shot from President sitting alone at his Oval Office desk with flags fluttering in the background, while an angelic choir gently hums "God Bless America".
Cut to pretty, elegantly graying forty-something matron in softly shadowed anti-depressant commercial: Ask your doctor whether an Iranian war is right for you.
8
Thank you for not bombing, talk it over. Skype them or face time like normal people and compile a policy for crying out loud, you know ... a plan? Do we have a plan? Because it either was or was NOT part of the plan. If you have a plan you anticipated certain events and prepared your response. Was this response not planned, anticipated, not considered ahead of time? If so how come the order went out? Get a clue and make a plan!
One that works would be nice while at it.
4
"Shameless is the only word for such contempt for truth in pursuit of a casus belli." Agreed, Mr. Cohen, and many thanks for an incisive, thoughtful and most excellent op-ed.
Unfortunately, Trump does not read. To be willfully ignorant is one thing, and he is most certainly willfully ignorant, but to also be functionally-illiterate is beyond the pale.
Yet he is the President of the United States, a man who does not read anything, unless it's a real estate contract. No doubt if it's got anything to do with real estate, Diet Coke or an escort service, he'll read it.
Perhaps Pelosi should give Trump a call and tell him that THE ECONOMIST, THE NEW YORK TIMES and THE WALL STREET JOURNAL are actually real estate periodicals . . . . .
5
The most apt, succinct article on this issue; the first paragraph says it all.
This last-minute recall reminded me of “The Mytilenaean Debate.” Thank God for smartphones and technology, I don’t think rowing a boat through the night would have gotten us to Hormuz in time. Humans don’t learn, do we?
Iranians have always- I repeat always- been a sovereign state. They have never been ruled by anyone but themselves. They have not known colonialism. A push to get rid of Shah was not just religious fervor, it had its equal strong support in that fact that Tehran of 60-70s, had become the Paris-of-the-East (نفوذ غرب) and Iran was losing its unique identity.
Leaving the treaty and slapping the oil sanctions, that is a choke-hold on Iran. This is deliberate bating for a war- am sure Bolton and Pompeo, the real instigators.
SA is playing an ugly role here, not merely egging on… and who knows, Israeli may not be far behind. I have never understood the hate, I mean real hate, that exist between Saudis and Iranians. It is Wahabis and Shiites eternal fight, which goes back hundreds of years.
Mr. Trump looked harassed.
For such dire issues, you require foresight, patience, historical knowledge of the world, and capacity to listen to people who know the region.
He is out of his depth here: utterly and completely.
8
Trump is trying to prove himself a
man of peace who abhors the loss
of life. Perhaps Ruper Murdoch
will nominate him for Nobel Peace
prize.
3
Excellent column, Roger. This garbage president and his enablers Bolton and Pompeo have no clue as to what they are doing. The catastrophe of this presidency is indeed now in plain view. One more reason Nancy Pelosi should accede to an inquiry for impeachment. But perhaps she'd rather keep calculating politically, and wait until we're in the midst of a nuclear war?
4
@MickNamVet Totally agree with your feelings as to Trump. But you're in Penna., one of the states that gave him his surprise victory. I'm from there, and I think I understand what drove people there to vote for him. And I fear that the people there will rally to his defense if there's an impeachment battle.
An impeachment motion that is emotionally satisfying now, will be less satisfying when Trump is re-elected with Penna.'s help. I think Pelosi is right.
2
We’re bombing. No, wait a minute, maybe not. No. Not now. Maybe another time. We’ll see. How about the border? Let’s talk about that.
This is leadership? Kelly, Mattis, McMaster, et al. Aren’t you glad you’re nowhere near this guy?
8
Does anyone really think Donald Trump has read William Butler Yeats, let alone Joan Didion?
4
If General Bone Spurs is attempting to start a war in the Middle East: please will the adults in the room give him a distraction! How any self respecting veteran or current armed services member can follow Trump the lying fool is beyond me.
5
Trump called it off ten minutes before what: were the planes already in the air; was it before full deployment from a middle eastern American military base? And, where in the world were the Joint Chiefs of Staff? We don't have a Secretary of Defense -- just two nut jobs (Bolton and Pompeo) to direct this disaster of a president. Where in the world is Congress?
6
Wow! How could anybody be so naive. You probably wrote the same opinion about the treaty with N.Korea. Nobody should negotiate with any country that signs a treaty and then has a rally to celebrate death to America and western civilization. On top of that we end up financing there terrorist activity around the world. The Iranians were not going to stop their efforts to obtain a nuclear weapon. They believe it is there God given right to have one as a lot of there neighbors do.
Your writing makes it obvious you have never been in any type of negotiations and you go on to quote the treasonous John Kerry. He is the one who got us in this mess.
I have family from Iran so I know there are good people their, but when the radicals took over the country those peoples voices are know longer heard They believe that we must die. We must stand up to people who think like this because if we do not 100,000 will be dead. Then your editorial will be about how ignorant you where and what do we do now.
This country should never let anybody with an Army chant “death to America” and not take it seriously. Your way of thinking has now put us in grave danger.
god Bless America
When is The New York Times going to address the obvious motivation for everything Trump has done in regard to Iran since he was elected? Since before his inauguration Trump has been planning a "re-election war" against Iran - and he still is. Times' columnists write as if their opinions alone are going to have an effect on Trump - laughable stupidity.
Trump is planning to launch a nuclear first strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. The idea that he has any concerns about Iranian deaths or a "proportionate" response is laughable - it's like the people who work at The Times have permanent recurrent amnesia - how else would they even suggest that anything Trump says can be believed?
What is urgent here is that Trump be effectively stopped from launching nukes. What is needed is a bill in Congress to make it a felony for any military officer or other person to obey any order to launch a nuclear weapon unless they have proof in writing that Congress has authorised that order. This is what The Times columnists should be writing about - to the exclusion of every other subject.
Donald Trump is deeply mentally deranged and impaired. He is going to nuke Iran just because he can. Is there a single person working for this newspaper who believes there is any possibility of Donald Trump NOT using nuclear weapons while he has the chance? Again, it takes a certain type of determined stupidity for people to ignore the obvious about Trump - he loves chaos and will do anything to win.
7
We read from Iran that they spared an American plane in their airspace that was retrieving the downed drone; aboard were 35 passengers. Is it possible that Trump made a deal not to attack them in exchange?
One thing's certain, we can't rely on this president to tell us the truth in all this; it's not in his nature, and neither would he want the Iranians to look like bigger heroes than he.
5
John Kerry should remember that the Republican Guard were an Iraqi phenomenon. In Iran, it's the Revolutionary Guard.
If Trump starts a war, who will join with the U.S.? My guess is nobody. He has no credibility and has alienated all our allies. I keep wondering when demonstrators will take to the streets in this country. Maybe this will get people demonstrating as in Hong Kong or Paris. And Congress does nothing.
6
More worried that without a secretary of defense, for civilian input, the full militarization of American foreign policy is now in full swing--see Pompeo speech in Florida recently. Watching world cup in France, I now get chills when I hear the anthem--bomb flying in air--instead of America the beautiful. How did we get here people?
5
Because Trump is Trump, he has run into the inevitable problem of finally facing a formidable opponent who isn't worried about re-election. He has made a career of getting his way through bullying, law suits, and throwing his weight around, not actually going after opponents. Unable to sue or cower Iran with the tactics that work on his plumbers or congress, he doesn't know what to do. Then comes the story of the aborted attack that sounds like it was concocted by Eddie Haskel. Since he has lied so often beginning from his inauguration and constantly changed his stories, it is hard to believe anything he says. Hopefully there is some adult in the room who Trump will turn to to get him out of the corner well all are in.
4
Well, here we are. Was the drone in Iranian airspace or not? Who to believe, the Iranians or a pathological liar? This moment was entirely predictable.
The crisis has passed, but the very same issue will arise again when the American public is asked to support a military mission. Trump has zero credibility with our friends, our foes, and the majority of this country.
Moreover, critical diplomatic posts go unfilled and we lack a real defense secretary. Sooner or later, Trump’s luck (and ours) will collide with the Law of Averages.
9
To Mr Cohen’s spot on breakdown of the Trumpian folly unfolding before our eyes, I would add that this clever like a wounded fox president knows the value that accrues to a warrior president leading up to an election. He doesn’t know much history but surely he recalls Bill Clinton’s cruise missle strike on a pharmaceutical factory that failed to get Bin Laden but served to distract from the Lewinski scandal—setting the template for wag-the-dog escape scenarios. Would it surprise anyone that a president with no philosopy of governance and a bone-spurs acquaintance with the realities of war might rely on neo-con retreads from a past administration and keep a wag the dog plan simmering in the event of impending impeachment and/or failing poll numbers?
2
This is a very good summary of the situation.
Basically, Trump violated the agreement with Iran.
Crazy people in this dysfunctional administration are leading us into a preventable and unnecessary war.
It’s time to start holding the rogue leaders - Trump, Bolton, Pompeo, and assorted complicit Republicans personally liable for what happens.
8
I guess those bone spurs really have come in handy. Trump is a relative dove surrounded by hawks that he happened to have hired. But it is good to know that Trump took a step away from the Big Muddy.
Launching a war with Iran, which is the sincere ambition of Lindsay Graham, Tom Cotton, John Bolton, Mike Pompeo and a number of other real or imaginary warriors, would probably be one of the last acts of American aggression in a hundred years of mixed results. Trump's broad strategy of Making America Great Again is in practical terms a method of making America scorned and ultimately irrelevant. Witness the attempts of our presumptive allies to build an alternative payment system to subvert our cruel sanctions regime against Iran. Witness the world's contempt for our climate denial policies. Witness the world's rejection of our perverted and racist immigration and refugee policies. Trump has decided to end American liberal internationalism built by a century of international leaders from Woodrow Wilson and Eleanor Roosevelt to every postwar American president prior to him.
If Trump wins a second term, the destruction will be complete. Iran, however, beckons defeat for not only a cadre of old school militarists but the draft dodger himself, if his awful policies end with another Middle East war, certain to destroy Trump and America's role in the world.
3
I know Iran from living and working there. Iranians are a proud and, for the most part, decent people. They do have their extremists, just as we do (like the KKK, still very much alive) and those extremists are the face advertised to the West by our political machines. Little is said of the oppression they suffered under the Shah or the oppression they still suffer under the current regime. But, there is nothing the West can or should do to right that. Any military attempt to punish the Iranian leadership would kill innocent people. Even their military is largely composed of young people drafted into service as we used to do. They would be the cannon fodder. An old solution, put the leaders at the front of the troops, swords in hands, leading the charge. A dual between Trump and Khamenei wouldn't be very entertaining, they'd probably both perish from fear, but, if they want to fight, theirs should be the first boots on the ground.
6
Trump is all about re-election. If he decides in his gut war will help him, we’ll be at war.
4
Again, Trump destroys something that was working (the joint agreement), then "comes to the rescue" to look like the hero (supposedly calling off an immanent military strike that would have killed hundreds).
This is delusional behavior.
The world is not a TV show. When people die, they are forever gone, not just written off the script. The buildings in countries are not props that can rebuilt for next week's installment.
Trump's first campaign started off riding down an escalator with paid actors cheering for him. It's gotten more preposterous, since.
The men an women in uniform are not extras from Central Casting. They somebody's children, parents, friends and loved ones. Treat them with the respect they deserve. They are willing to die for us. At least make the reason mean something other than TV ratings Twitter likes.
7
Why did Trump put a quick stop on this excuse to jump into his Iranian War plan?
It's still too far out from the next presidential election!
Undoubtedly, he has the war declaration chalked into his diary for somewhere about the end of August 2020.
He KNOWS he'll be stuffed on election day if he kicks it off this early!
Recent history shows rallying around the flag popularity only lasts about 3-6 months at the most before people come back to their senses, and the presidential election is still 16 months away: 3rd November 2020.
Pres Bush approval ratings show big peak at the time of the twin towers attack, slowly dropping back to normal, until a smaller second peak occurred at the time he declared war on Iraq. That second peak dropped rapidly back over a 6 month period, then approval just kept sliding.
1
Mr. Rough-n-Tough is nothing but an embarrassment to this country. We do not need or want to go to war, and, unless General Bone Spurs and his illustrious children are willing to lead the charge, the president would do well to sit quietly and let the rest of his term play out. Does Trump truly understand that any attack will ultimately result in Americans being killed? While he clearly does not care about many of our citizens in uniform (females, African Americans, Muslims, Jews, Latinos), there will more than likely be white boys from southern states who will also be among war casualties. How is Mr. MAGA planning to explain that kind of collateral damage to his "base"?
3
Catastrophic errors in matters of war and peace are the progeny of the everyday outrages that are President Trump's political staple. Nobody should sleep well until we rectify our collectively catastrophic error of November, 2016.
6
Well said, Roger Cohen. We can never take what president Trump says at face value -- i.e. that 10 minutes before the U.S. strike against Iran last night, he called it off because he only learned at the last minute that 150 Iranians would be collateral damage. Wiped out with extreme prejudice.
Donald Trump, our ignorant and unfit reality TV president has taught us to never believe anything he says since he lies constantly. Toys with the truth. The funny orange Trump blimps in the UK were political cartoons of our president toying with the American people, our allies and our enemies. Will the truth ever puncture his colossal braggadocio?
The Saudis, in league with John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, Trump's war hawks, are whispering war in Trump's ears ("Say it!" Trump, red-faced, shouts at reporters because he can't hear them any longer). Trumpian inspired conflict in the Middle East will distract America during this year and 2020.
Is it funny that President Trump has declared the Democratic Party and journalists and the American press as "the Enemies of America"? Joking about being president for life (like his pal, Xi jinping in China) isn't funny. Suggesting he is being considered for the Nobel Peace Prize isn't funny either.
Having witnessed Trump's monstrous power grabs since 2015, we are hoping for Watergate Redux Articles of Impeachment to be initiated in the Houses of Congress.
5
For the record, Trump is the head of the Republican Party. All Republicans share in this obscurity. Every Republican relentlessly pounded Obama for the Iran nuclear deal. Fox News ran continuous propaganda on the deal. Trump the ultimate birther jumped on the destroy Obama campaign. Are you surprised? This is as much Mitch McConnell re-election strategy as it is Trump’s. When you campaign for ultimate political destruction rather than policy. You ended with nothing but vengeance.
We alway talk about American causality. We rarely talk about Iraqi or Iranian causality. Like they don’t exist as people — as human beings. George Bush’s war of lies in Iraq killed hundreds of thousands of people - Iraqis. Do we care? Who is the terrorist? Ask the Iranians.
3
Have we learned nothing from the fiascos in Vietnam , Iraq and Afghanistan? Apparently not.
5
What is more concerning about this ridiculous charade is watching mainstream news media eat the story up like it actually happened. Can you think of any past scenario where a sitting president said he came minutes from starting a war but decided against it because of his humanity?...or any other reason? No those are the stories that get declassified decades later. There was no strike planned - this is all a little charade otherwise known as Trumps foreign policy strategy of school yard intimidation.
4
Maybe he realizes, as Bolton does not, that China (and Russia) are the serious threats. Maybe.
2
The "president" was just seeking a distraction. Most Americans see him as a loser. Focus on the repairing/highlighting the problems he has created.
2
The drone that was shot down was worth $130 million. The USS Abraham Lincoln and the aircraft it carries are worth $15 billion or so. If hostilities break out the Iranians will try to sink that carrier. The losses may become painful even for a superpower.
2
Thought bubble: Trump imposed sanctions on Iran AFTER Iran was already COMPLYING with a nuclear treaty that the US and other governments signed which Trump rescinded.
And now since the Teheran has no obligation to follow that treaty which the Trump junked, Trump's officials wants the U.S. to attack if Teheran doesn't follow the treaty which Trump junked? That doesn't look right.
7
@Filemon Elefante
Hey, the U.S. defense industry is running out of room to store all the weapons it makes. Use 'em or lose 'em!
1
Really, what are the US objectives? We create unbearable suffering for the Iranian people, who normally have not borne ill-will toward us, in order to force a regime change that will not in any way resemble a democracy and certainly will not be pro-US.
Iran is a ancient sovereign nation with a proud heritage, being bullied by the new kid on the block.
Over a century of US interference in the affairs of other countries has "improved" precious few.
9
I fear this is just an extreme case of Mr. Trump being able to claim that he "saved the day." That he and he alone is the master of our salvation. He creates a problem and then miraculously solves it. The danger here of course is that his hard line advisors push him too far, too fast, and our salvation comes too late.
Several commentators have said that casualty estimates are always given with any military plan, so Mr. Trump should have known this number well before the last minute. Unfortunately this just reinforces the knowledge he doesn't read the briefings and apparently his advisors are hiding information from him that does not support their cause. Too far, too fast, too late.
6
My sense, upon hearing Trump's interview today, is that while he may sincerely believe in 'proportionality', he is more keenly interested in making the narrative about himself with the American public, and positioning himself as a broker of last resort between the US and Iran.
That empowers him to do business his way: direct negotiations through one on one talks, quid pro quo. I work in a large company and that is our standard MO when dealing with large counterparties. I've also worked for small companies more similar to Trump Inc. Leadership seeks ultimate decision making and plausible denial. I believe that his strategy may work in a hierarchical organization and with problems that have a simple narrative. In his mind all problems are simple and all organizations are heirarchical.
Hence his reliance on direct negotiations as a strategy and his ability to get comparatively more political traction with dictators and tyrants.
The problem with his approach is that he cedes control of events to the other party where problems are neither simple nor heirarchical. Iran is not a democracy but it certainly isn't a dictatorship, nor are the challenges Iran presents simple.
You think it worked with his businesses?
Good grief.
1
But we are talking about Iran and not the fact that Trump has been compromised by Russia. How many billions does he owe Russia and Saudi Arabia, you don't spend billions buying property when the banks won't lend to you unless you have other resources. Follow the money it's obvious.
4
P.S. Roger Cohen, with whom I usually but not always agree, is consistently lucid. A terrific voice for these times.
4
Trying to find genuine casus belli has not been America's forte of late, at least as far as Republican administrations are concerned.
Be that as it may, the real concern is that ultimate authority lies with the Commander-in-Chief, a man whose record, judgement and character do not inspire confidence of any kind.
Whether he got scared, or was subject to an intervention, it was not the projected deaths that stayed his hand this time.
Trump's personal conflicts dictate geopolitics, and for that reason alone, he should be removed from office.
7
The blood from a war with Iran, that Trump blunders into, will be on the hands of Mitch McConnell and the other Republican leaders. They could remove Trump any time they want, but apparently would rather risk it all for more tax cuts and right wing justices, i.e. more wealth and power for their donors.
10
Since the overthrow of the Shah of Iran in 1979 by the revolution, nothing seem to have changed. Iran from that day on in 1979 seems more violent.
@Tonjo: Nonsense. It is the US that is escalating hostilities.
If you are interested in the historical record, and the very good reasons Iran has for animosity toward the US and at least some of its allies, a convenient place to start might be with the British-led blockade in 1951, followed by the CIA-sponsored coup in 1953 and the vicious regime of the Shah from then until 1979.
4
We should give credit for the president for making the right choice and encourage him to build on it.
1
@JT
his choices are always a function of his pathologival ego-centrism
1
At least he called it off. When someone is changing, they deserve credit. No matter what any of us said, he could have gone through with it. For not going through with it, I commend him. However, change is not a one-time thing. It is a process. Prochaska and DiClemente have a helpful model of change that includes pre-contemplation, contemplation, preparation, action, maintenance and relapse. I think Trump can change, but he has to commit to it himself and be open to help.
In a nation of 329 million, there are numerous people expertly qualified to be president, with vast knowledge of history and government. Instead, we have the first president who has served neither in the military nor public office. Watching Trump approach the geopolitical intricacies of trade, national security, international alliances, and war tensions is like watching a plumber approach heart surgery. “Trade wars are good and easy to win.” I hope that flippant philosophy doesn’t extend into militarily dangerous territory. I am filled with apprehension and no confidence.
23
@zip
Your statement "like watching a plumber approach heart surgery" is much closer to a novice politico being elected President than what we have now. After all heart surgery is really biological plumbing. I would know, upon my initial introduction to my thoracic surgeon, he referred to himself as the "plumber". The metaphor I would use here is more like veteran jackhammer operator approach to heart surgery. All you'll have left is a bunch of rubble.
3
@Zip most smart folks don't want to compete, they know better
1
I have sat back and read all the anger going on in this country by all sides. This is not the way to run a democracy.
This just escalates and gets us nowhere.
Now we are at the brink of a major war.
We have to stop it. Every one of us.
No more vitriol and pot shots. We can't afford them.
It hurts everyone and will lead us straight to war.
Calm down. Talk sense. Logic. Democratic principles.
We have a president in office with the experience of a media personality who not only alienates his staff, but our allies, and coddles dictators.
And elected officials who want only their own private power instead of doing the job they were elected to do.
Decades of careful building of democracy around the world is being dismantled by childish emotions before our very eyes.
Enough.
Wouldn't you say?
Do we want another senseless war to mask the inadequacies of domestic failure?
It is well past time to take the sharp tools of war away from someone who will misuse them and muffle the tough talk everywhere so we can get down to earth again.
Back to a democracy that works and should be run.
By grownups, thank you. About time.
A kinder gentler nation of truth and justice and the American way.
Don't wait for worse to happen.
5
@BLB Do you think peaceful civility is going to impress Trump and his coterie of authoritarians to suddenly give up their craven grasp on power and start governing for the public good, the good of even the 62% who are not part of his base?
Taking a rose to a knife fight with amoral sociopaths, sadly, can have but one outcome.
3
Trump has no logic.
2
@Charles doody
No, not roses, Mr. Doody.
And no knife fight.
Votes.
Standing up for what's true, democratic and just plain common sense.
No more fighting, blaming and calling names.
Where does that get us. Here, to war's door.
Instead, we need to use our voices, our efforts and our constitutional votes to make things right again.
You buy it?
2
Cohen would have the US capitulate to the threats of Iran and beg for forgiveness. Cohen, who obviously has failed in learning the threat that Iran poses to the region, despite his myriad of overseas assignments.
Iran has be duplicitous since the revolution. It has engaged in the wholesale imprisonment of its citizens, the public execution of those who dare utter words that the Islamic Leadership finds offensive, the public murder of homosexuals and the flogging of women suspected of adultery. Iran has shipped missiles to Hezbollah and Hamas in its attempt to attack Israel via third party proxies. It has funded terror groups in Europe, South America, Asia and elsewhere. It has vowed to spread its virulent form of Islam and never ceases to shout "Death to America". Cohen would have you believe that Iran is no threat and military action against the Republic would be our fault. History has shown repeatedly that failure to stand against genocidal and murderous regimes ultimately leads to a far worse war than one initiated when the threat first posed.
To illustrate the threat that Iran poses, Arab countries that had openly hated Israel, supported the PLO, and initiated 2 oil embargoes against the West have realized that the true threat is not Israel but Iran. This is why these Arab nations have opened dialogues with Israel and fully understand that they will need Israel in the upcoming war against Iran.
It's coming and Cohen would have us less prepared.
@Mike; if so, it's Israel's war and not America's. So Mr. Cohen is still correct in his assessment here.
2
@Mike Delusional apocalyptic stuff Mike.
There is no need for a war with Iran and never has been. The US doesn't get to determine how everybody else in the world gets to live or die. Iran was on a path to be brought back into a cooperative and stable relationship with the western world under the JCPOA. Trump and the republicans have blown that up and replaced it with nothing other than chaos. Let's hope that reason and moderation win through in the end.
3
So, we lost another drone. How much do the cost, depending on whether they are weaponized, as many are?? In the days before aerial spying, if one of our spies was caught, they were prosecuted and imprisoned, or outright killed. And neither side said much publicly because they didn't want further exposure about their operations (it was why "cloak & dagger" was coined).
Wars were not threatened over the loss of a spy. I very much doubt that if Russia, China, or Iran invaded our airspace, we would show any less restraint. I don't see any country attempting to impose "regime change" covertly or overtly , on the U.S. But, this has been our modus operandi with weaker countries around the world since since the late 1800's. Our political pundits profess "outrage" that North Korea and other adversaries spend their wealth on their military and not on their citizens, but are we any different?
5
1 drone, $200 million.
@DarklerAnd do you know the profit margin on that $200 million?
1
If Trump stumbles into still-another war in the Middle East, opposition at home will make the country's unhappiness with the Vietnam war look like the day after Pearl Harbor in comparison.
9
Beware the would-be tyrant and what manipulations happen prior to the election. I would not put it past him to "postpone" the elections due to some "National emergency" created by him.
9
@Colleen: he isn't a "would-be" tyrant he already is a tyrant. As for declaring a national emergency, I've been saying that for months. He will declare one to "postpone" elections so he can avoid jail. And you know what? This first time cancellation of a national election will be happily noncontested by his GOP Christ sycophants. Never mind that even during the Civil War elections were held.
1
The US-Iran relationship is exceedingly complex with real and, just as important, perceived errors of judgment and action on both sides. Resentment and anger, at least on ther parts of the so-called leaders of both countries seem intransigent. The victims are the people in each country who are suffering now and who will suffer more should we not find a way to seek and achieve a constructive relationship. Use of military force to address these issues if not to produce a win-loss outcome may be thought by some to be straight forward, obvious, and conclusive but that is simplistic in the extreme. We seem to believe that this is an intractable black-white issue. We owe it to ourselves, to the world, and yes, to the Iranian people to search for at least a diplomatic entry point... again.
7
"Politics"--to win votes here among a constituency-- is always the problem. What has over 50 years of sanctions gotten us in Cuba? With China, we reached out in the 1970s, did business, and look where it is; no, it is not solely our doing, perfect, or democratic, but it will get there. So will Iran, but not by sanctions or war. It needs lawyers, doctors, entertainers, and manufacturing to develop industry, etc., so it can buy and sell goods. Folks living and raising kids and educating them is how real countries flourish, likes ours. Years ago, the American philosopher Richard Rorty observed that we can't have a real society without the buying and selling of goods. Let's engage and let history do its job. No, we cannot allow bad actors (and Iran certainly cannot be exonerated) run amok, but this approach of sanctions to compel democracy and human rights does not work--especially at the behest of you-know-who countries in the Middle East .... Market economies (with individual tweaks) and freedom work, but require patience. War, while turning a blind eye to our murderous "friends" like the Saudi because of oil and weapon sells (and real estate and hedge fund deals), is bad policy. You can't treat one (bad) actor one way and another differently and expect to get good results. It's also unfair and unjust, no matter how much political machinations you employ to excuse your actions.
6
War with Iran would be a disaster for the region and for US economy. Israel would be wiped out. The world is lucky that at the last moment Trump did not pull the trigger. But I believe it was not due to his understanding of the would be disaster, but plain cowardice. Anyway, the world is a bit safer now ! For how long, we don't know. Bolton, Pompeo, Netanyaho and MBS must be disappointed, but will try their best again to push Trump into a frenzy. God help us.
11
Thank you for this excellent, compelling analysis, Roger Cohen, and NYT.
Indeed, no one is well-served when a decision-maker waves a powerful loaded weapon around at a cornered population with limited opportunity to react in self-defense (as normal human instinct dictates): "Now, I'm going to blow some heads off! Now, this hostage! Or maybe not! Or maybe, you, bearded guy, after all! Or maybe I ought to just kneecap your kid!"
Is that anyone's idea of leadership? Of a public servant whose words are to be taken seriously?
The G20 is coming up. Did no one at the White House give this any kind of thought? Or was someone making money on the sly, speculating, as sometimes happens?
Obviously, what the circumstances call for is a thorough forensic investigation, with full transparency, of what it was that compelled people like Hastert & Pompeo to sign off on such a reckless act of primitive escalation -- and what then caused a rethink. Was it genuinely a last minute reversal, Trump's choice to abort the mission as Trump claims?
What else went on?
Our reputation is being seriously undermined. We need to fully understand what exactly is being advocated, by whom, on what basis; & why Trump imagines that his own need to 'win in 2020' justifies all sorts of radical, extreme gyrations, whether on Iran, or immigration, or anything else.
Also: stop terrorizing those kids! And for the love of God provide them with basic hygiene, soap, toothbrushes, the works. USA looks like the pits!
9
Did Trump make the right decision - yeah.
It statistically had to happen, sooner or later.
9
@MS Even a broken clock is right twice a day. At least the clock is an inanimate object with no self serving underlying motives for being right while broken.
1
Like the broken clock that shows the correct time twice a day.
1
@MS; good one!
Before any of this broke my son observed that Trump wouldn't do anything on a Thursday night that might interfere with his scheduled weekend golf foray. Perhaps they told him he would have to stay available at the White House after the initial attack.
29
@Bill You're the only one who got Trump's underlying motivation for postponing military retaliation against Iran. I'm laughing and crying because I sense your comment is dead serious and I'm pretty sure it's correct.
1
It's simpiler than that.
Trump is front loading the MSM so he can take control when the Democrats debate next week.
He has already announced he will be live tweeting during the debates.
His ICE round ups are meant to goad the Dems into calling for abolishing ICE (which cost Dems an easy win in the AZ governor race last year.)
He will again use brinksmanship on one or both of the nights in response to some Iranian perceived threat.
The Fed will announce interest rate cuts next week.
I'm sure you can ad your own producer/screen writer notes to this script.
8
Yep, plus force Dems into supporting Reparations for descendants of slaves and free healthcare for illegal immigrants and the Republicans are sure 2020 winners.
Not s wise decision at all
Not a decision even
Pure luck
Even a broken analogue clock is right twice a day
That would be unprecedented with this payaso
3
Certainly a decision designed to maximize the positive political impact.
Brothers and sisters, "Look at the compassionate actions of our benevolent leader. He truly cares about the lives of all living beings"...
except of course the children being separated and detained at the boarder.
8
Trump will return to his threats upon Iran. He repeatedly has shown willingness to act in areas where Congress has no immediate control of his actions. Immigration, tariffs and war powers are all ripe for his abuse.
Who knows what goes through his head in matters like this except that his thinking is spectacularly shallow. Perhaps he finally realized that Iran is not some hapless refugee coming to to this country to be abused but a serious nation with a cohesive population and a military that can make a whole lot of trouble for U.S. desires and interests. It should give anyone pause.
3
I am concerned with how much attention president toddler is receiving for this horrible mess he created. Once again he destroys something and then laps up the praise for "fixing" it. I'm not sure people understand what kind of a sick thrill this guy gets by threatening people's annihilation. He enjoys the powerful feeling he gets from that. He also loves toying with people with comments like "you'll find out." He thinks this is some kind of reality show.
7
A petulant child playing with nuclear fire. This is no way to run a country, much less the most heavily militarized on the planet. It seems an eternity until November 2020. I pray to God we make it.
11
@Michael
Does Iran have nukes?
That is definitely NOT what super-diplomat John Kerry told us, that icon of mediocrity.
1
The real disgrace is that he was never for the Iran Nuclear Deal solely because it was an Obama-led deal, never mind that it made the world safer. Now he's just doing the bidding of Netanyahu. This is how terrorists are bred, when peoples lives and livelihoods are negatively impacted by a silly government half the world away that's little more than an Indian-giver and attempts to stifle them at every turn.
7
Please provide specific facts to show Trump is doing the bidding of the Prime Minister of Israel.
@Buster Bronx
Please read an article of any paper regarding Trump's bending over backward overtures for Israel and the exact opposite when it comes to Iran - a country we're not providing billions in American taxpayer dollars to prop up on an annual basis...for apparent perpetuity. The reason Netanyahu likes to preserve friction between the two countries is likely due to his desire for continued U.S. funding support.
2
But for all the wrong reasons.
1
What has Bolton ever achieved? His long Curriculum Vitae (resume’) is just one failure after another. How does he land such important jobs?
6
Where is Jared Kushner in all of this? Wasn’t he supposed to solve the Middle East crisis and being peace to the region? I guess when the going gets tough, Kushner keeps his head down and his mouth shut.
15
@Mark
He's working on the family prison clothing line with Ivanka. Sales start in January 2021.
2
This whole thing is so Dr. Strangelove, except its not funny.
8
Every single article and comments regarding the Iran 'situation' clearly states skepticism regarding the statements of Trump and his administration.
Generally most people are having a very hard time believing Trump, Bolton or Pompeo.
This administration appears to be waging a propaganda campaign designed to lead the US into war with Iran.
And where is our Congress? They went to visit Trump yesterday. How nice, did he serve tea? Why are they letting, yes, just letting Trump "slouch toward war'?
With each weeks' new crisis under the direction of Trump, the US Congress inches closer to their total annihilation under Trump and Mitch McConnell. I have never in my 65 years witnessed such total inaction and lack of support for our democracy.
13
Trump could not tell a story straight even if he had memorized it.
This last minute call off of the bombing does not ring true.
He wants us to believe that only 10 minutes before giving the final go-ahead, he realized that people were going to be killed. What kind of two bit joint are they running there? Weren't calculations as to objective, consequences, fatalities discussed and considered ahead of coming to a decision? Typically, he wanted a show. He wanted to put out a James Bond ending: airplanes ready to rain destruction while time is running down and only he can stop the destruction. He is running the country the way he ran his election, helter- skelter. In the election he only had himself to lose, now, it is the country.
25
Helter Skelter... yes so perfect, exactly like Trump.
2
Perhaps some of his 'advisors' might show trump a map that points out the strategic location of the Straits of Hormuz and why this location is so critical to the passage of oil all over the world. Wonder if he would be able to focus long enough to grasp this
9
If they are in bright primary colours he can
Don’t forget the big lettering too
( needed for illiterates)
1
While it is good that we did not kill 150 civilians, Trump shouldn't be praised for that. That should not have even been an consideration.
Rather, he should have to explain why we haven't been able to respond to Iran's recent attacks in a way that would not result in civilian casualties.
Our failure to respond will only embolden Iran to attack again and again.
5
@Bill; not if they were only defending their country which is what they're saying.
3
>>> "[Killing civilians] should not have even been an consideration."
Really? Not a fan of international law, our binding treaties (one of the elements of the "supreme law of the land," as our Constitution says), or simple human decency, are you?
"Rather, he should have to explain why we haven't been able to respond to Iran's recent attacks . . ."
First, he should be required to explain why anyone should believe that Iran is responsible for the "recent attacks."
1
"Now, in a real crisis, and one of the administration’s own making,"
This is the real threat of the Trump presidency. He mades good things bad and bad things worse, and then has no real idea what to do.
28
Most Corporate CEOs are unqualified to be President. Reality show Corporate Executives have only to appear to know what they are doing. As this Iran incident suggests, real reality is brutal for the unprepared.
24
It all smells like a stunt designed to get attention - "Oh what a compassionate humanitarian! "How absolutely mesmerizing!" "What could this brilliant outside the box thinker be up to!" In case you haven't noticed, he is an egomaniac. We are his audience.
26
The first paragraph alone is astonishingly complete.
Thank you for this superb & well-written analysis.
9
There is no good reason for the United States to involve itself in a war that satisfies no end or benefits no one in the United States.
To have carried out an attack on Iran only serves the Saudi's and to a lesser extent Israel , neither of whom for good reason are willing to do take care of their own business and for some unknown reason expect the United States to do their bully whipping of the Iranians .
Like Mr Cohen I find myself in agreement and thankful that common sense prevailed on Mr Trumps part . I am not sure where that may have come from Perhaps the family intervention that Speaker Pelosi asked for came to fruition .
292
Where is our timid little powderpuff, Nancy?
1
>>>for some unknown reason expect the United States to do their bully whipping of the Iranians.
@Brit - It's not hard to figure out Brit, they prefer our kids get killed over theirs. Not to mention all the expense.
4
@JM, what? When Speaker Pelosi speaks, you tell her to stop. When she doesn't speak, you insult her like a middle schooler.
If you use the googles to look it up, Ms. Pelosi has spoken about the Iran situation, but you know that.
When immature insults are your only contribution, you can't be surprised that you aren't invited to the grownups table.
16
On the web site, the sub-heading of this piece was:
"The last-minute calling-off of military action is the first wise decision on Iran the president has taken."
I must have missed the other wise decision (presumably not on Iran) the president has taken.
6
@George Moody; I trust it's referring to pulling the US out of the deal with Iran.
One cannot use “Trump” and “wise decision” in the same sentence. How much you wanna bet calling off the strike wasn’t his decision at all? Somebody with sway over him must have strong armed him and I betcha that someone has the initials V.P., and that ain’t Pence.
11
@Hortencia; I agree with you 100%. Someone or some ones has come up with this and managed to talk some sense into him. ... for now. "Not proportionate"?! Like DT all of a sudden cares about that? Recall this is the same bully who pushed the minister of Montenegro aside so he could get in front of him!
1
Yes, Trump’s Lord and Master, Vlad!
1
When it comes to the Middle East, Trump is like a child playing with matches.
15
If you can't say anything nice about Donald Trump, you should say more.
11
Since when is Steve Bannon a reliable source of information on foreign policy?
8
@Linda The answer to your question would be 'Never'.
1
Nobody could say it better than you just have, Roger.
4
Who will stop this mad man?
8
With this President, pity the U.S. pilot that is shot down over Iran and is captured.
5
@Ashwood8; let's hope it won't come to that.
1
Like many Americans, I do not believe for one second that Trump called off a ready-to-go military strike at the last minute because he heard at the last minute that 150 people would be killed. Since when would a military briefing to the president about an attack not include an estimate of the number of deaths the attack would cause?
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and Trump lies. The last category is designed to make reasonable people go insane.
25
@Emile
I can imagine that the experts did tell him about the expected casualties but he was not paying attention. Then, after the mission was in progress, he suddenly had a thought and said, nobody will get hurt, will they? When corrected he then called it off.
1
The President is still bolstering his case with claims that have been repeatedly declared false. He claims that President Obama "gave" the Iranians %150 billion in cash just to get a crummy deal -- 1) the money in question has always been Iran's money, assets that were frozen until the JCPOA was approved. 2) The JCPOA is a United Nations agreement, signed by all permanent members of the security council plus Germany, plus Iran. It is a comprehensive deal. When Trump uses false information to state his case, it follows that his concluded actions are similarly flawed.
19
@kate Don't believe the funds were ever owed to the Ayatollahs regime.
Mr. Cohen's analysis is spot on. It is shocking to watch this train wreck in real time. An armed conflict with Iran would make Iraq look like child's play. Not only is Iran a much more populous state with many more resources, but there are Iranian ex-pats in almost every western nation on earth. True, most of these people are highly educated, have western leanings and are forces supporting positive political movement in Iran away from the Islamic Republic. It would be incredibly naive, however, to think that all of them would stand idly by if the US attacked Iran with no legal or moral pretense and caused extensive Iranian deaths. These are highly educated and often wealthy people in the US and most western European countries. The potential for sleeper cells is enormous. Also do not think for one minute that Western European leaders don't recognize this. If the US attacks Iran, we will be completely alone. No other country on earth (except for Saudi Arabia and their cronies and Israel, only as long as its ruled by Bibi) will support us. It will make the disaster of Iraq look like Child's play.
This is scary stuff and it is apparent that Trump is in way over his head on this. Pray for us all.
9
Trump is in way over his head PERIOD
2
I hate to measure advice by the wit of a 200-yr-old epigram; I grew up with Buckley, and learned in middle school to suspect that tactic. But the citation from Talleyrand, a cynic capable of rendering Kissinger the waxwork minion he always was, was so apposite to this column as to strike at the heart of its tragic cogency. The subject of the piece has never heard of him.
2
"Trump’s Slouching Toward War With Iran Is a Disgrace" -- but not nearly as much as his slouching on domestic policy.
6
Iran is a rational actor. Its leaders know that any war with the United States would mean the total destruction of their country. When they say they don’t want war with us, it is clear that they mean it. We should do everything we can to avoid accidentally starting one. Trump did the right thing by calling off air strikes.
1
Some of the comments make it sound that Netanyahu is just a war monger. I really dislike netanyahu’s politis overall. But he us reacting to an Iran that constantly threatens Israel’s very existence. Iran sponsors conferences on “a world without Zionism.” How many countries in this world behave the way Iran does? Why should Netanyahu behave any differently than he does?
2
"Disgrace".
Can't even start to describe this situation, I have a relative who doctors say has two to three months to live without his medication and there is non of it any more in the markets. food prices jump over night ,potato is now equal to banana, so I think any escalation on Iranian part is justified because we are literally dying and I rather die standing than kneeling before this "Disgraceful" sanctions.
7
The last person who should be deciding if we go to war with anyone is the star of the Apprentice.
670
Every day this man is in office is another day of fear. What will he do next, along with his ship do fools. Danger Ahead
7
Americans live in a perpetual state of Nixon induced Republican led fear
And have been for 50 years
Time for a change ...a regime change... in America
7
It wasn’t his decision, it was advice from the Kremlin and his pal Vlad.
13
Nancy - DO something!
5
Once a failure, always a failure.
Donald Trump is showing his true colors.
Ineptness, ignorance, bluster and stupidity.
You really can’t teach an old dog new tricks, and Donald Trump is living proof of that.
He heaps more and more disgrace on this country and the Presidency, and himself, with each passing day.
For all our sakes, he needs to be removed from office at the earliest possible opportunity.
Lives literally depend on it.
Nice try Mr. Trump, but you’re just not good enough or competent enough to lead this country, or anything else.
Leave now, please.
11
I am so sick and tired of Donald Trump, I could throw up.
13
The 'borders' of national sovereign jurisdiction in the area are pretty hazy. Some of the maritime delineations haven't even been formally agreed between the relevant nations. Ask the Royal Navy. On TWO occasions since 2007, Iran has swooped in and effectively arrested British sailors and marines for territorial violations and on both occasions it looks as if Tehran, not London was ultimately in the right. Oops. All the militarily personnel were released essentially unharmed after a few days and the usual public humiliations - having their uniforms confiscated and being paraded wearing the most awful cheap, polyester business suits. That was the hurtful bit.
3
The real battle in the White House now must be between the 5th-columnists like Miller, Bolton, and Pompeo, who were essentially hired by Adelson and Bibi to push the naïf Trump into an idiotic proxy war with Iran for Israel that would be many times as disastrous as the previously stupidest war we ever fought, the neocon debacle to “protect” Israel with “regime-change” in Iraq—versus the hard-nosed political realists like Conway, who realize that nothing would more totally destroy Trump’s white working-class support than sending home their kids in new Middle Eastern body bags for Israel First, not America. Trump explicitly promised these workers NOT to kill their kids in more stupid wars. Adelson and Bibi could care less if Trump is politically destroyed by their war on Iran. All they hired this clown for was launching that war. Once Tehran is in ruins, who cares if Trump is too? Conway’s own self-interest depends on re-electing Trump, not destroying him for Likud Israel. Let’s hope Conway’s cynicism trumps Likud’s, and Trump avoids war to save himself,
7
NYT for president😂
2
I’m glad he called it off. I just wish one time he would tell the truth.
2
Only Congress can declare war.
303
@Eugene Fidell I venture to think that if (and I hope that it is a big) The Donald decides to go to war, we will go to war. The members of Congress might fuss and fume but they will be presented with a fait accompli. Congress has a lot of power on paper but they won't use it when it counts. If someone files a lawsuit about it, the Supremes will say that it involves national security therefore the President can do whatever he wants to do.
I hate The Donald and his treatment of Iran, but I am just tell you how it will really work in practice. Have a nice day.
12
@Eugene Fidell
The House has voted to end the AUMF, but I believe the Senate has to, too. It gives the President "emergency powers" to go to war.
4
@Eugene Fidell
"We'll see. Time will tell".
You cite war powers law that is useless in the context of the the criminal administration in power now in the White House, with Chief Enabling Sycophant McConnell, suppressing congress, selectively enforce laws on their enemies, while exempting themselves.
16
The U.S. called-off military action, the Iranians have not. They will take another action. And another. Then we'll see.
Things will escalate to the point of war. Trumps numbers will be less than abysmal. It will be obvious to our enemies that Trump cannot be reelected.
The Russians will then pull the string on their kompromat man. They will try to use the Trump presidency while it lasts to do the maximum damage to the U.S. internationally and domestically The Russians could very well back the Iranians militarily to induce a panic in U.S. markets.
In addition, this imbroglio is sure to embolden other adversaries like China, not to mention terrorists. They know that American citizens cannot tolerate tough times, and are being led by a bumbling idiot.
Trump is toast. Trump has been compromised. Trump is a buffoon. If there ever was a time to wreak maximum havoc and damage to the United States it is now. Expect something very bad to happen because we are vulnerable.
Trump's followers believe that a presidency is composed of tweets, Fox News, and rallies with bully slogans. Reality is about to smack them in the face.
7
Talk to Netanyahu and Alan Dershowitz..... this is not a US, , but a Netanyahu made-up war.
27
You're all living the day to day dramas portrayed sensationally in nationally televised tidbits and press conferences carefully manipulated by the government. Did you notice big announcements always come out on Fridays for the weekend news cycle? It is just as pertinent over the years as it is today with Trump's god like conduct. He is TV. He knows TV. He uses TV, and you all still don't get it.
Everyone has to view world events more honestly with a mind imagining what others think as demonstrated by their actions over the long term. Why is there many decades of violence in the Middle East? Not because the enemy of your favored side is so bad, but because both sides, Palestinians and Israelis won't make peace after being pandered to for all those decades. The lack of peace in that region has been a serious threat to peace beyond the region, to the entire world with weapons precariously built and maintained based on that continuing conflict and the risks it poses.
Do you want world peace, or at least something close to it? Force Israel and Palestinians to make peace. They are both a threat to our national security, an example of which was 9-11. You're all living reflexively, pumped up by manipulated and rewarded mass media. Take a long walk and think about it.
2
@SHAKINSPEAR You can never have peace between Israel and the Palestinians. The creation of the state of Israel resulted in the displacement of 6million Palestinians for the settlement of 2million European jews. No thought was ever given to the resettlement of the displaced Palestinians. That problem persist to this day.
2
I want to sincerely ask someone to explain to me why we are so concerned with tankers owned by the Japanese? Aren't we almost energy independent? Why do we continue to be the police force for American business interests? Why are we Americans still putting up with this industrial/military complex? Are American lives put on the line equally important than Iranian lives that will be bombed on the ground? Where is our humanity?!!!
5
So, after nearly six years of relative Middle Eastern nuclear stability, we are thinking that these emerging developments are superior to the step-back from the brink of catastrophe negotiated by Obama and Kerry during the previous administration, are we?
Really? War is better than peace? Do you feel safer now? I guess so, especially for angry male cowards who fearlessly send other people and their children to fight their wars for them. Has the USA finally become the toy poodle of Israel and Saudi Arabia?
That same Saudi Arabia whose loyal Wahhabi citizens flew those commercial jets into the World Trade Center, killing 3000 Americans in a single day?
7
Great writing Roger!
5
I have the way to solve all this.
A JEOPARDY! tournament, where the contestants are
1) Iran, Syria & The Hezb-Allah
2) Iraq
3) USA & Israel
4) Saudi Arabia.
I know it's usually a three-panel thing, but making it four would make it Super JEOPARDY!
1
Rog!
Let's take this point by point:
1. read briefing papers? Why? Fox News delivers real time on target, non-fake news, 24x7. Count on it. Don does.
2. agreements? Are made to be broken. How else do you get a better one?
3. advisers? That's what they call themselves. Don uses them in the only capacity they're fit for: in photo ops. Otherwise, "the gut" (not mine or yours, but his remarkable one) is what Don goes with.
4. proud? ancient? Don says "look what we did to the Palestinians. Once envied through the Arab world for their educational and professional attainment. Now reduced to scrounging for the next meal and hoping Israel doesn't, in the mean time, blow up or bulldoze their homes. No worries on Iran!"
5. national interest? Don said "have you heard of hotels Rog? Employers. Big employers. The biggest. That's my interest. That's America's interest. Hey, wanna deal on your next stay?"
6. I could go on, but I'm tired Rog. It's been a draining time. Swamp's still there. But a heck of a lot of draining going on out there.
6
On of Roger Cohen's best pieces.
3
There would have been an awful lot of pressure to conduct that strike. The President showed leadership many of us didn’t expect and we should all reconsider him.
@Andrew Rayment
The United States Military did not want that strike. Pompeo and Bolton wanted that strike. Why is it so impressive that Trump can tell a couple of well known war-hawks that he's not going to kill people over a drone?
I'm just relieved to find that Donald Trump will hesitate to actually kill people. He appears to know the difference between Reality TV and reality.
2
Except for the lying about the reason. He only found out 10 minutes prior that people would die? Please come buy my bridge in Brooklyn.
4
Donald Trump never wanted or intended to be president and is in way over his head. Donald Trump is a small time grifter who let his put-on campaign get out of hand (assisted by Hillary Clinton who turned the joke on him by not showing up for the campaign). This will turn out to be a hard lesson to those who thought electing a clown to be president was a good idea.
8
Roger Cohen, How do you know Trump called off military action?
Perhaps, Trump pretended military action, in the first place.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
You must know that this President does not always tell the truth.
We are no longer an open society, where truth is expected...
My great fear is that Trump will continue to trump democracy,
with his endless threats and lies, to charm Trumpsters.
(Roger Cohen, I would if you know Leonard Cohen's song.
Leonard Cohen, sang, "Democracy is coming to the USA".
Perhaps, Trump's threats will create a new democratic wave.)
4
@Harry Pearle true, other commenters have also mentioned that it may have not been called off in the last 10 minutes, only portrayed by Trump in a tweet to be that way. The more likely possibility is what you mention, and the real decision was made so he could spin it to his advantage- not America’s!
2
@Harry Pearle
I completely agree with your assessment. I think this was an oval office leak to bolster Trump as someone who has the military might to use force, but show he can make rational decisions. My belief was JCS said we can do this but your playing with gasoline and matches where the military leadership sees this action as suicide.
1
@Robert M. Koretsky
Thanks, so much.
I think we are expecting Trump to become honest.
Trump trumps by being Trump, all the time...
Lincoln said that
"you can fool all of the people, some of the time and some of the people all of the time. But you can't fool all of the people, all of the time."
Trump knows that all he has to do is "fool some of the people all of the time", to get his way.
Let me suggest that maybe we need a woman president, who is the opposite of macho, Trump.
Again, I hope that Roger Cohen and the Times, will comment on "Democracy" by Leonard Cohen...
1
As per his usual, Trump again has done the opposite of what his goals are: he's driven and continues to drive a lot of International public sympathy towards Iran.
That's what tends to happen when a giant goes thousands of miles out of his way to bully a small country with threats of war and bankruptcy.
2
This not the first time we have tangled with Iran. Let us not forget the C.I.A.’s role in overthrowing a Democracy in Iran in1953 and setting up the dictatorship of the Shah. How differently our relationship with the Middle East would have been if the western powers had cared more about cooperation rather than taking their oil.
7
Not a fan of Bolton and his myrmidons but where was the Obama administration during the Iranian uprising in 2009-2010 ?
15
@Trevor Just curious as to what you think Obama should have done. The Iranians haven't forgotten what we did in 1953 and that led to the Shah and subsequently what they have now.
110
@Trevor On the sidelines as any attempt at overt support would have played into the hands of the hardline elements in the government.
90
@Trevor Wisely minding his own business. The United States can and should not get dragged into every skirmish in the Middle East . In 2009-10 we were/are already mired in a civil war in Iraq.
124
You think it was his decision? He didn't give a damn about the thousands of Puerto Ricans who died as result of the hurricane. Please... he not human enough to care about anyone else.
10
How can anything be called wise which relies on one general apparently, 10 minutes before the strike was about to occur, to inform the president that the strike was disproportionate and maybe he should call it off?
This is like the Keystone cops playing with missiles!
12
"Where exactly the truth lies in the allegations and counter-allegations around the downing of the RQ-4 Global Hawk surveillance drone — essentially a dispute over whether it had violated Iranian airspace — and the recent attacks on shipping in the Gulf of Oman is unclear."
I think the photo the Iranians provided of the mangled remains of the drone that is on display in this NY Times helps clarify it. It would have been impossible for the Iranians to pick up pieces of the drone if it had been shot down over international waters. It seems clear that it was in their territory and they were able to retrieve it.
3
@Wayne Fuller
I'm quite sure Iranian forces were under the most intense drone and satellite surveillance in the hope that they could be caught trying to retrieve evidence from international waters. No show, obviously.
Nobody's yet called into question the authenticity of the wreckage on show. Looked to me like some sheet metal and what *might* be part of a jet engine's rotor disc. Unless the Iranians can produce anything really special - the flight recorder or some true bill ultra-classified radar antenna or similar - they're vulnerable to claims of 'hoax'.
OK, Ok, if it's 'ultra-classified' almost nobody would recognise it. Bad example.
@Wayne Fuller
The Iranians provided the coordinates of the drone and straight away asked the UN to investigate. I would say they are very confident the drone was in their airspace. They have also said there was a US Navy aircraft with people on board in their airspace, and they chose not to blow that up.
Is everyone forgetting that a US Military missile cruiser shot down an Iranian airliner during 1988--in Iranian airspace, killing all 290 people on board? Oops! We thought it was a fighter plane--even tho we were told by the commander of the USS Sides that it was a commercial plane. The US govt paid over $68 million to the families of the victims around 8 years later.
Is it any wonder that Iranians do not trust what we say?
1
A child playing with knives in the sandbox. Maybe we'll get lucky and nobody gets hurt.
1
Yeah, you're right. But Trump is a puppet and we should be even more concerned as to the circle encompassing him from the C.I.A., Pompeo, and the Pentagon, to the possibly childhood abuse endured Bolton lashing out for decades at any and all strong arm leaders to the military elected by TV Trump. We should be very concerned about that military structure. Trump has clearly demonstrated a character easily molded by ear and his narcissistic gratification to have the power of yes and no over lives is all a dynamic to fear.
For some time now, I have had the nagging fear that Trump is aggravating the entire world and that presents some serious strategic concerns.
You were right about his scattered strategy, what there is of, in his strongman over intellectual behavior. He is a puppet and start reverse engineering that. It wasn't only Russians that helped elect Trump.
More specifically, someone was responsible for the oil tanker attacks, either Iran, someone in the region, or as I am also analyzing, here at home to gain sympathy as I've seen before. The act was real which led the actor Trump to act. He obviously exhibits delusions of a God like grandeur as he instigated then implied forgiveness or life power over the Iranians in cancelling the attack.
Trump needs to face the fact that he is a puppet being manipulated by everyone. He needs some quiet time alone to reflect.
2
Trump cancelled the nuclear deal with Iran only because it was put in place by Obama. Even worse, Trump has applied sanctions but without any clear articulation of what he is trying to achieve. So, while Iran is definitely a bad (very bad...) actor, the president's terrible mishandling has lead to unification of public opinion in Iran against the US, increased military engagement, increased interested in restarting their nuclear program. And continuing the disfunction, the president now looks like a deer in the headlights -- totally clueless on what to do next. This is what happens when we put a narcissistic political amateur in the Whitehouse. We will rue the day we elected this guy.
9
As others have pointed out, Trump frequently lies about why he has acted to not reveal his true reasons. This might be one of those times. It's plausible because Trump really rarely offers such explanations that make sense. This explanation makes him look incompetent, issuing orders without considering likely results which he later considers reasons to reverse his orders. It makes adversaries wonder whether he is telling stupid lies or really is prone to behaving without thinking.
3
The idea of threatening war with Iran, coming right up to the edge of launching an attack, and then pulling back is a parody of what our foreign policy has become under this President.
Allies and adversaries alike consider our chief executive vain, egotistical, ignorant, and stubborn. The hard work of decades, in which Presidents of both parties sought to build a world in which the US was often a pillar for stability, is being squandered by an administration that is inept and arrogant.
It would be a tragedy beyond reckoning if this horrible man successfully entraps this country in a war in the Middle East. Iran is no easy enemy (it's not clear that Iran is an enemy at all). It's a country with a large army, sophisticated weaponry, and a population that has no interest in kow-towing to Trump. Many, many Americans would die in a conflict with Iran. And for what?
4
Please don't be so gullible Roger, the president neither called for a strike nor called it off. This has all of the hallmarks of his other PR stunts.
1
Anyone who is not turning around and running in the opposite direction at the first sight of a military recruiter must be considered insane.
Having your life put on the line by a clueless bumbler like our current commander in chief is akin to suicide by Trump.
Virtually guaranteed.
4
The GOP has thirsted for war with Iran for over 15 years. Maybe longer, if you factor in how much they hated when the Shah was overthrown, and no doubt used that in their arsenal for attacking Carter at the time.
But, if you actually track more recent GOP sentiment, the desire for war with Iran is always there. It didn't start with Trump.
The sad irony is that war with Iran would be a gift to the very hardliners the US loathes. A war with Iran would, like so much the GOP wants, be a disaster for the US (see Iraq and Afghanistan as examples, and then multiply by a factor of at least ten, and you'll have Iran).
It didn't start with Trump -- it's been a GOP preoccupation for a long time. But if it happens under Trump, it'll be another disaster and disgrace for us, and a human catastrophe for Iran.
4
A mistake AND a crime, if Trump goes to war with Iran on the pretext of the AUMF and al Qaeda.
1
The most predictable sell out in history. He is following the Bush/Reagan playbook. Just start the war already. Oh, wait, your buddy Putin may be setting the rules here now. Sort of hard to balance the demands of Russia, Israel, & Saudi Arabia.
1
Pssst. Senator McConnell, please wake up.
The President is off his rocker again.
5
Cohen might have added if the strike went forward Karl Marx'x wise epithet from the 18th Brumaire," things happen twice in History first as tragedy, then as farce". Bush's Iraq was tragedy and Trump's Iran is farce.
3
I seriously doubt that any strike was planned or called off at the last moment. The only way at this point that I would believe such a tale is if former President Carter told me personally that he had witnessed the whole thing and that Trump is for once, telling the truth.
This it typical Trump blustering and why does the media keep printing it?
4
Trump is, succinctly but kindly put, border-line insane. Start a war with Iran? Veto a Senate decision against more arms for Saudi Arabia? Declare a national emergency on the Mexican border and by-pass Congressional funding authority? Unilaterally hike tariffs on false national security grounds? It's all the same madness, expressed the same way in each instance, i.e., "I alone know what I am doing, so that's it." For the umpteenth time, the Senate must stop Trump. Muster the minimum 20 Republican senator votes needed to convict him based on an Abuse of Power article of impeachment passed by majority vote in the House. The man is nuts and obsessed with insane "winners vs. losers" voices screaming in his head, not to mention an obsession with power. Impeach and convict now!
2
Trump is forcing Iran towards needing a nuclear weapon by i squeezing them where it hurts, threatening others to comply with deep sanctions or else. Iran will have no choice but to react with counter threats especially if the Europeans, the Chinese and the Russians are afraid of U.S. bullying. They all should rather be pressuring us into reversing the US position and returning us to the joint agreement. The candidates for 2020 should be on the case too.
1
Mr. Cohen, your first paragraph sums it all up very nicely. Agreed 100%.
3
Bravo Mr. Roger Cohan, another sober and objective assessment of the Iran Situation. I cherish not only your reasoning, but also your excellent choice of words and the objective narrative, considering your religous descent.
I know the Iran before it became a Theocracy and I know the long Persian History. Although the current Regime does not consist of Saints, we must not forget that the West had a reassonable deal with the Iran after endless negotiations. The USA abandoned the contract. Calling the Iran as evil, under strong influence of Israel and the Saudis, is a poor and ridiculous judgement - a typical Product of the Trump Administration. Are they just naive, evilminded oder under the influence of Saudi Money.
My strong Feeling suspects a Trump/Kushner/Saudi alliance for personal gains.
This situation must end, since it may cause another war just out of utter stupidity.
4
“ I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and launch the nuclear codes that destroys Paris and wouldn’t lose any voters, ok.”
“It’s like incredible.”
1
Note to America:
It's never a good idea to ride in a clown car. It's an even worse idea to ride in a clown car driving next to a cliff.
4
You are giving djt too much credit to say that he stopped the attack by bolton and pompeo on the Iranians. djt is a spoiled little rich kid who is unhinged. He understands nothing but he admires putin. Russia communicated with him before he backed down.
The Russian ring in djt's nose is being jerked up and down and he is following along with his republican followers.
Meanwhile the impotent Democrats in the House continue to twiddle their thumbs instead of standing up for our democracy. There are many responsible for this mess and they all have their roots in the United States.
We can change this picture in 2020 if we make it that long.
1
@Kirk
Not only are the democrats twiddly on impeachment, and muddily wading through 23 candidates, now they’re riffing off on Biden, and talking about reparations for slavery.
Just as Obama, in goodness of purpose and stupidity of consequence...gave Fox News red meat just before Hillary’s election by bringing up transgender issues.
I believe transgender bathroom talk swung the last election to dufus.
One democratic candidate by December hammering 3 key issues should do it.
No identity politics until after we retake the country via straight democratic vote; identity politics must wait until we win the next election.
1
Trump's statement is a lie and all bluster.
I saved the world at the last minute sounds like something from a cartoon.
3
The problem we face is that the American people in general - and congress in particular - are ignorant and stupid. Any grown up democracy would laugh and then fire a Secretary of State as malign or dim as pompous Pompeo for the unpardonable sin of conflating al Qaeda and Iranian Shiaism. It’s beyond acceptable that Pompous Pompeo should think he can get away with this almost eighteen years after the failed war on terror was declared. All of this ... Boltonmania and the like... is because most Americans don’t understand the basics of US delusions about terrorism. Bolton, Trump, Pompeo et al simply prove that al Qaeda won the war on terror and infected the US with a fever which is driving it beyond mere self harm and into full blown insanity. This is a great piece from Cohen.
3
When our troops start dying again, this time versus Iran, then we shall see who supports him.
1
I disagree that his base would not like another war. I think if FOX tells the base that war with Iran is just fine, they will eat it up with all the other garbage Trump and FOX feed them. Trump is low brow with a loud mouth. It's time the Congress did it's job and shut him up somehow. The damage that insane Trump and Co. will do to the world and to this country is going to be incalculable. Besides our military complex benefiting, will war with Iran make any friends besides Israel? No.
1
"For the Trump base, war would hurt."
Would it now, Mr. Bannon? Would it now?
"For the Trump base." That, sir, tells you EVERYTHING.
Gotta keep that base HAPPY, don't we. Gotta placate that base with everything we've got.
A while back, Mr. Trump was backing away--oh so slightly--from that big WALL along the southern border of the USA. But then--oh why MUST they, why couldn't they just sit STILL?--
--but then that base began howling and carrying on. Grave commentators on Fox News and--well gosh, I don't KNOW where else--began excoriating the President as he dithered:
"You're DISAPPOINTING us, Mr. President. We elected you to build that big fat WALL. If you let us down, sir, we're gonna FEEL let down. We're gonna say you BETRAYED your base--"
Comparable howls arose from sundry bases in Trump-land all over the USA.
So he backed down. And now, New York Times--
--and now Mr. Bannon thinks it feasible that same base--loudly shrilling its displeasure whenever it FEELS any displeasure--
--might conceivably shrill some displeasure HERE. Should Mr. Trump--who loves to scowl and shake his fist and make his face turn red--
--go so far as to provoke war with Iran.
It's as you say, Mr. Cohen.
No wisdom anywhere. No foresight. No real knowledge or insight.
Only that base. That confounded base.
Maybe that base will save us from a fruitless, ruinous war with Iran.
The first good thing they've done.
If indeed they do it.
2
The problem with president Trump for the NYT (that said Hillary was going to win 90-10)....is that he was born. That is the bottom line.
How can one ignorant man, who happens to be the POTUS, consider, order and then retract an attack that would have killed so many people for an attack on neutral nation tankers that killed no one and may not have even been committed by Iran? How can one immensely shallow, confused and cowardly man have the power to do such a thing? Congress is the ONLY part of the government that can wage war and they should only do so after profound deliberation.
4
This is happening because we have an Oval Office occupant who cares only about how things will affect him, and expends as little energy as possible.
His whole life he has been sheltered, protected, insulated. He's never had dirt under his fingernails, never helped others, never been held accountable. Other presidents have had pets. They've had first ladies who actually promoted the general welfare...or actually said anything. They've laughed, cried, shown humanity. All except resident Trump. All he shows is scorn.
War? He has no grasp of the concept. It's just another toy for him, a way of bending people to his will. He won't be affected by it. This falls at the feet of the GOP, whose sycophantic, cowardly response to Trump got us here. They are the tail that wags the dog. When will they do what's right?
4
Please, dear Mr. Cohen, do NOT use the word "wise" when speaking of the current place holder of the White House.
1
Awesome first paragraph!
1
Our reality show president, Donald Trump has manufactured an Iran crisis, that he is now set to magnanimously resolve.
All Hail, Donald! You are the greatest of all con men, ever!
5
President Trump, all of sudden has sympathy for his fellow man? Don’t believe it. Donald J. Trump is in it for only himself.
He envisions greatness of being the hero that saves the day, but only in reality, he projects weakness and is an embarrassment to our country.
What if military personal had been injured or killed in an accident during staging and the eventual stand down order?
The United States doesn’t have a confirmed Secretary of Defense or a United Nations ambassador among all the governmental department vacancies. President Trump has backed himself into a corner. The boy wonder president is playing with fire and will attack soon just to save face. Trump is so far being outplayed by our sworn enemy, Iran.
Unfortunately, this is not over and will not end well. When you are: “Cocked and loaded”, You Fire!
3
All you can do is criticize the president. What is your solution to the Iranian threat.? Do you really believe that in another 6 or 7 years the despicable theologians who run Iranian would have enabled a more moderate approach that would satisfy the civilized world? You're dreaming just like Obama and Kerry.
2
Trump pulled back because his simple mind thinks it well make him look presidential.
Trump’s a two bit actor and a miserable president.
It’s all looks to Trump, nothing else.
8
Nice to read solid anti-war op-eds in the New York Times for a change. Well done. Please remember this perspective the next time that "regime change in Venezuela" rears its ugly head.
3
Trump stomped his feet, pounded his cheat and flashed his eye spots. The enemy did not crumble. The tactic did not work with North Korea. It did not work with Venezuela. It is not working with China. Now it has failed with Iran.
How is this possible? Maybe he needs to add a yodel to his shtick.
3
We are fast approaching the day when the president will blame Hillary, Obama, Muellar and 14 angry Democrats for this situation he is totally responsible for.
4
I don't think it was a "wise" decision on Mr. Trump's part to call off the military action planned over Iran. I have to think it was a planned scared tactic that went a bit too far even for him.
3
Toying with lives as if they were so many tin soldiers.
277
Damned if he does and damned if he doesnt. He clearly has stated he does NOT want to get war with anyone. No less for an unmanned drone. When Syria gased innocent men, women and children after being warned he took action.
Unlike Obama. This President cares about our country and others in countries where their citizens are abused.
So if Iran takes one American life, rest assure they will pay the price unlike the last administration who never followed up on their threats.
Article VI of the Constitution includes:
"This Constitution, and the laws of the United States which shall be made in pursuance thereof; AND ALL TREATIES MADE, OR WHICH SHALL BE MADE, under the authority of the United States, shall be the supreme law of the land..."
When the US signs a treaty it must be ratified by a vote in Congress. When the US leaves a treaty, it also must be ratified by the Congress. Donald Trump has unilaterally withdrawn from a number of binding international treaties, from the Paris Accords on climate change to the multilateral agreement with Iran even though Iran was in compliance with it. This is illegal. Trump acts as if he, and he alone, is the embodiment of the government and the people's sovereignty of the United States. The proper term for a person who claims unchecked absolute power is "Dictator."
4
Mr. Cohen,
I think it is a mistake to buy this narrative, that Trump pulled back on a strike at the last minute. Think about the familiar pattern to the story line and the absurdity of it.
Trump is ready to order a missile strike, but learns 10 minutes from issuing the order that innocents will die and he calls it off? He's the hero, of course.
Plus, since when did Trump know the word "proportionate"?
7
Mr. Cohen begins by saying "Trump has been all over the place on Iran." He has not. From the outset he announced his opposition to the Iran Agreement. Senator Schumer agreed with him and voted against it. It was not a binding treaty (Obama didn't have the votes) so he made the agreement on his own with the concurrence of countries eager to do business with Iran. After his election he withdrew from the Agreement since it was not a treaty. He instituted punishing sanctions against Iran which has their economy in free fall. He has told them if they begin working on a bomb he will not permit it. He has not taken the bait with a military response to the bombing of tankers and the shooting down of an American military plane (unmanned) in international waters. If I were the Supreme Leader of terrorist Iran I would not go too far. As FDR said " It's not important who fires the first shot but who fires the last."
1
I have a hard time believing that the first time someone told Trump that there would be 150 likely deaths was when the planes were already in the air. My guess is that he is lying about that. I wonder if we will ever know the truth.....
539
@anonymous because of the nutcakes
But shouldn't Trump have asked the questions about casualties PRIOR to making the decision to strike? Or, do we have a commander-in-chief with the typical shoot-first-and-ask-questions-later mindset?
58
OF COURSE HE'S LYING!!
...his lips were moving!
84
He was told in the very first briefing by “his generals” but he didn’t listen.
64
All a melodramatic, staged assault if you ask me. I'm never one to build conspiracy theories but wouldn't put in passed him to create yet another manufactured crisis!
5
yes - calling it off was a wise choice. but thinking first instead of having to call it off would have been wiser.
however, the public release of details and trump's own narrative show him as nothing more than the bully that he is - and a weak one at that.
the iranian people will now be told that the warnings from its radical leaders that the USA wanted to bomb iran were true. whatever the iranian populace believed before, they now have to be concerned that they will face an attack in the future.
they will also be told that the USA is fearful of iran's defense system. while the defense system may have caused US losses, it would have been overcome and the US military is capable of laying waste to whatever it wants across the iranian state. the military of iran is overmatched. US losses for this event would have been unacceptable.
the president has lost credibility around the world. he is unpredictable, infantile, poorly informed. he speaks with self confidence, but is obviously insecure. on any given day, nobody knows what they're going to get.
trump cannot be trusted with war powers. trump cannot be trusted with control of nuclear weapons. the reaction on the news tonight and over the weekend will drive him to some other plan and the decision may not turn out to be satisfactory - except to him.
4
The material and psychological cost of putting American forces into high readiness for striking at enemy targets seem to be overlooked by the commander in chief ,who seemed to revel in the inhebriating sensation of sheer power at his disposal. Hopefully his spouse enjoyed the surge of serotonin after the cortisol alert was cancelled.
President Trump does not play for the thinking elites of his or any other country. He only thinks about his crowd , Americans convinced they are despised by intellectuals , abhor thinking , and confuse Iran with Irak .
Coming to think of it,thoughtful op-eds directed against him are exactly what he depends on to reinforce his appeal to his voting constituency. Exposing president Trump's immorality, ignorance and inarticulate leadership perversely strengthens his appeal. How many of his supporters will ever come into reading contact with a NY T columnist in the course of the campaign? The case I am trying to make is that sadly, informed opinion,sometimes known as wisdom speaks too softly and does not carry a big gun. Mr Trump loves big guns.
3
No, it was the worst (lots of candidates there) decision he has made. Now the mullahs can get away with anything---setting tankers on fire, keeping Assad in power in Syria, subverting Lebanon, sponsoring and arming Hezbollah, extorting tribute from the Gulf states, subverting the Iraqi government...next will be nuclear weapons.
The problem is we just can't trust a government run by religiously driven zealots, who issue propaganda filled with outright lies to deceive its populace and repeatedly make warlike threats to other nations. But which government is that?
5
Even at this critical moment, when he seems to have backed away from his big, tough talk about Iran and feigns concern about "proportionality of response," trumpy continues to blame the Obama administration about "anything Iran."
The orange worm should remember that he has been president for almost 3 years. This whole series of events has happened ON HIS WATCH, due to and as a consequence of his nullifying agreements and trying to push Iran into the same corner that, it seems, Iran has now pushed him into.
trumpy is deeply flawed; he is a weakling, a loud, fast-talking bully who blames others and shies away from problems he has caused. Thank goodness that in this situation he did back down, but we cannot be sure that this unstable, flailing, failing so-called president will do the wise thing ever again.
5
Wrong. The missile site should have been eased from the earth moments after the shootdown. USAF should have had the coordinates down to the meter.
Only thing a criminal regime run by brutal, iron-fisted clerics will understand. Israel wouldn't have given it a second thought. But then, they're dealing with Iranians in one way or another everyday. So it goes--till we finally get the message.
1
What is a national disgrace is those who want Trump to go to war and those who think that Trump was slouching towards a war. Trump has once again shown common sense and prudent restrain to demonstrate that he is a level headed humanitarian who brought us close to an escalation towards a war but stayed short of an abyss. Wish instead of Bush and Obama, Trump was the president and no Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and Yemen wars. So far so good. Trump should refrain from any new regime change wars and end wars that began during the Bush and Obama years.
1
Is now the time to impeach Trump?
It might disrupt and distract from these faulty decisions to go to war. DJM
2
Both Afghanistan & Iraq conflicts have left a bad scar on our nation exposed world-wide.
Who wants War anymore - Dictators - North Korea - Russia - China - Iran - Turkey - Myanmar - Syria - - the Trump/USA?
It's men like Trump who make threats like he's done to Iran, huge egos, bullying and power hungry leaders who light the fuse and bingo there's a war.
So, now we have a U.S. Navy Drone shot down and Trumps bluff called out by Iran.
Would Israel stand for an attack by their enemy? - never.
So, now America is caught between a rock & hard place and frowned upon as a toothless Tiger because of Trump's show boating for his base which remains solid because the majority want the WALL built at the USA/Mexican border.
2
Very good article ... I would just add that the agreement also started big business from us and Europe with Iran. There were several deals in the works. This would have further brought Iran into the mainstream of nations. No one wants to bomb one another when you have hundreds of billions in trade going back forth. The middle class & youth of Iran are very pro-western. We have much in common. We would be such much better off if we stop doing Israel's & the Saudi's bidding when it comes to this, And so would they. It is sheer insanity what's happening now, and it never had to get here. Pres Obama was on totally the right track and John Kerry is absolutely correct in what he says.
8
"Trump’s ripping-up of the deal was a gift to the hard-liners. This month, Iran said it would stop honoring the limit on how much low-enriched uranium it is allowed under the deal to stockpile. How is that good for the United States, or indeed for Israel?"
I don't think there is one thing Trump could have done any more worse than the ripping up of Obama's deal, unless it was hiring John Bolton, and allowing him, Pompeo, and Cotton to plot war against Iran.
Trump creates enough problems intentionally without stumbling into new ones. He's boxed himself into a corner, with only the Warhawk trio able to get him out, which even this careless man must sense is a huge mistake.
We shall soon see what motivation wins Trump's mind on this--the desire to be seen as tough, or the desire to survive politically even if means appearing "weak".
He can't have both because he stupidly made it a binary choice from the get-go.
6
'Shameless is the only word for such contempt for truth in pursuit of a casus belli.' The thing is, Trump and his supporters in Congress, are impervious to shame. I have watched them absolutely torture the truth when it comes to justifying their behavior. In the rare instances when they feel that they must justify anything as opposed to their penchant for stonewalling. Trump's instinct is to tear down the accomplishments of others, especially those of one African-American commander-in-chief. He promised cheap and comprehensive health care, decrying the 'disaster' that was the ACA. Until he admitted that 'no one knew how complicated' healthcare was. Same thing with the Iran nuclear deal, the absolute worst deal in history, according to our hyperbolic president. But now he finds himself in a thicket of his own making, having to contain the war-mongering of his own appointees, and finding himself friendless after he blew off our allies and fellow signatories to the Iran deal. He is indeed a stable genius. He is the genius I would expect to find when looking in a stable.
6
Cadet Bone Spurs, our toddler-in-chief, has finally come up against an adversary that does not follow the script of his unreality show -- and he is clueless.
2
This whole situation with Iran is another attempt at distraction from the ongoing incompetence and calamitous situation with the Trump administration. No one has a clue what they're doing and it's a constant state of brinksmanship. Trump is totally focused on being a "war president", thinking this will guarantee his re-election. He's completely wrong in everything he does. We can only hope the country survives until an intelligent and sane person takes over....like Pete Buttigieg.
1
We are dealing with a nation who could very easily turn out hundreds if not thousands of "martyrs" to fight back at us. There would be unnecessary blood spewed on both sides and we would gain nothing except more chaos and death. This is from a guy who puts America "first". I feel very sorry for the thousands of our troops who would die if a conflict broke out.
1
Trump has never learned how to do things in a coherent, cogent manner. For example think before you embarrass yourself by speaking off the cuff. The trouble for us is that Trump is not embarrassed by being incredibly loose lipped. Perhaps he does not understand how untrustworthy he is whenever he try’s to express himself. What this all means is we have weak leadership at the President position on the game board.
2
A bully needs to pick and win a fight every now and then to maintain credibility with its followers. I'm afraid saying "I could have beaten him up, but I decided not to." is not going to cut the mustard.
2
@Terry
So the big 4th of July Victory Parade for Trump is off , for now ?
1
Darn, I was hoping someone would project big photos of Obama and Hillary laughing on all of the buildings near the Lincoln Monument while Trump is making his Me, Me, Me speech.
1
Great article Mr. Cohen. Millions and millions agree with you except his cronies.
4
Remember the song "Give them the old Razzle Dazzle" from the musical, "Chicago?" That should be trump's theme song. Except he cannot razzle and dazzle everyone. The saying, "You can fool SOME of the people ALL of the time and ALL of the people SOME of the time, But you cannot fool ALL of the people ALL OF THE TIME! Trump needs to say this every night before going to sleep!!
1
We have a dispute with Iran over whether its airspace was invaded. That should be resolved by an impartial body after review of all facts. That's what the UN was created for. Or any other international organization. Shoot first, ask questions later, has gotten the US into protracted and unnecessary armed conflicts. We are in large part responsible for ISIS and the Islamic jihad. Trump and his bloody thirsty advisors looking for a pretext to start the next war are the real jihadists.
2
I remember Mohammad Mosaddegh, I was old enough to read in The New York Times how the CIA and the British Intelligence Services flooded the Iran government's opposition with money in order to destabilize the regime. They succeeded. Our ally The Shah of Iran became ruler. The rest of this story is current history which should be known. Ignorance of what intervention brings is our present reality after the Iraq War. Why isn't this self-destructive tendency not taught as part of our history?
3
As Pelosi said recently Iran is a bad actor. Iran is a terrorist State ruled by
an aggressive fundamentalist dictatorship.
Appeasement of this evil is wishful thinking, and is not a good idea, as we can learn by studying the history of German American relations during the 1930s.
18
@David** what appeasement ... Germany had taken over several countries .. Iran hasn't taken over anything .. Iran helped us rid Syria of ISIS & Al Qaeda in Iraq. Just as John Kerry says. .. yea let's start WW3 over nothing ... talk about needing to study
98
@Doctor Woo Hear! Here! Doc.
14
@David
Don't delay in getting yourself and other adult members of your family over to the nearest army recruiting station. If it's to be WWIII, you don't want to miss out.
65
One wonders what our strategic interest is in keeping the sea lanes open. Due to our Permian Basin production and reduction of oil demand, we are largely self sufficient on liquid and gas hydrocarbons. The oil flowing from the Persian Gulf is mostly headed to Asia, with the largest importer being China.
If we really wanted to put the screws to the Chinese, we would withdraw our military commitment to keep this waterway open, saving money for the American taxpayer and putting our troops and resources at lesser risk. Instead, we assure that the Chinese get their oil, a direct subsidy of their economy.
1
What amazing presumption. Such skill and depth to be able to so clearly define the influences and thought processes of the most perplexing President in a couple of lifetimes.
1
@Bruce Hoepner
Perplexing only if one thinks that Trump knows what he is doing. If you just take him as he presents himself, he's transparent. He has no depth of understanding about anything to do with the responsibilities of a President and he has no rigorous intellectual habits that make him inclined to learn, he just wings it.
3
The 2015 political thriller "Eye In The Sky" about drone warfare was tense and cerebral. A movie about this week's episode would be a cynical comedy.
1
CAMPAIGN PROMISES TO THE BASE IN CONFLICT!
1.In 2016 campaign Trump said no war and he would get us out of existing wars.
2. Also promised to end Iran agreement,which he did and has bullied and poked Iran since day1 in office.
Now promise 2 has become an imminent threat to promise 1.
This is how Trump hell works... - don't think he can sue or he would - so who will he blame to get his tefflon butt out of this one so the base won't notice...
2
Wisdom wasn't what caused Trump to pull back. The pullback was the opening scene of the third* act in the Iran drama played for the benefit of his reelection campaign, staged to make him look wise and benevolent.
*1. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement
2. escalation of sanctions
2
This really spot-on nails the situation, especially Kerry’s remarks. As I read this, I could not help but think of the Republicans in the Senate . . . What is wrong with them? Do they not see the hash trump&co have made here? Are they stupid? Blind? Why don’t they Do Something?!
9
Excellent article. Very powerful yet fully under control.
2
It is certainly rich that John Bolton and Donald Trump actively managed to avoid serving in Vietnam yet, with maturity, don't shy away from sending others into the Mideast and wildly spending our taxpayer dollars.
15
Sarah Palin once asked who Americans would rather have as President, a College Professor or "Commander in Chief". She was referring to John McCain, her running mate as the latter and Obama as the former.
Leaving aside whether McCain would have handled this situation any differently , if we recall that he sang inanely about bombing Iran to the tune of "Barbara Ann" as a gimmick, it seems fair to say that we've neither an intellectual nor a wise strategist at the helm now.
Trump's decision was a relief, but it's hard to use the word "wise". Now if he were to dismiss Bolton and Pompeo...
5
I am reminded of Barbara Tuchman's "The March Of Folly", 1984, Alfred A. Knopf, in which she examines a number of historic follies committed by governments. Folly, she wrote, is pursuing policy against one's own interest. To qualify as folly, policy must contain three elements, to wit:
It must have been perceived as counter productive in its own time;
A feasible alternative course of action must have been available;
The policy in question must be that of a group, not an individual ruler, (Trump, Pompeo, Bolton, Cotton, and other war, or chicken hawks);
Attacking Iran over a drone is surely folly of the first water. Attacking Iran for any reason would be tragically catastrophic, for us, Iran and the world.
Elsewhere, it was written that Trump ordered, at the urging of at least those three, a retaliatory air strike, probably cruise missiles, on Iranian missile batteries responsible for shooting down our drone spy plane. It was reported that military advisors told him as many as 150 people would be killed, and it was reported that because of this prediction, he stood the missiles down.
I don't believe this is what happened. I don't think anyone in Trump-world would care a fig's worth about 150 Iranians. What I believe, and will continue to believe until someone with real data proves me wrong, is that our military told Trump the drone had indeed flown into Iran's airspace, probably deliberately, and the Iranian's could prove it.
29
Excellent piece, Mr. Cohen. Would that we had a president with your intelligence and wisdom.
12
Can we hope that at the eleventh hour Trump will have another attack of wisdom, and withdraw from Election 2020?
10
A splendid, spot-in précis, Mr. Cohen, of this elementary school president’s inability to compartmentalize and to differentiate between “a mistake and a “crime,” as you quote Talleyrand.
Donald Trump doesn’t know what’s going on in the world because he doesn’t want to know. He eschews intelligence briefings and the professional military advice of men and women who have been down the road a time or two.
Worse, as you point out, is his abysmal ignorance of a nation, thousands of years in the making, with a sophisticated citizenry and an intellectual elite that America might be ashamed to equal. The president lumped Iran into the same rancid bag of “Muslim countries,” thinking that he would show off and strut his stuff in front of his adoring base, a political bloc that equates “toughness” with fear; with such people, everything is always easy, one dimensional. Just stir; add nothing.
Michael Pompeo and John Bolton are chest-beaters, wolf-criers and their boss a shallow consumer of everything that’s obvious; only diplomacy is not obvious. At its most efficient, it’s a slow, painstaking process that displeases just about everyone but leaves enough so that face is saved and doors may be closed—but never locked.
The Times reported earlier today that Tucker Carlson, a cable newsman, has “advised” the president on this matter, much in the same vein as his fellow Fox host, Sean Hannity. With two such jingoistic ideologues owning the president’s ear, what could possibly go wrong?
13
Lets remember it's US (the citizens), not US (the nation) that will be at the end of the Iranian gun barrels. And you can bet that the president will be hunkered down in the bunkers at Greenbrier or up in a plane somewhere over South Dakota (as all Republican presidents) when the bombs start falling. Bone Spurs should remember that there is a Russia and a China and everybody could be involved if this gets out of control.
4
A Few Issues here:
1) Trump created a crisis by pulling out of the negotiated agreement with Iran, even though it accomplished his stated goal of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
2) Given that the U.S. didn't respect the agreement reached with Iran, there is zero chance now that North Korea will enter into any such agreement (even if they were otherwise inclined to). I don't see how Trump can possibly "solve" the North Korea situation now, if it were ever solvable.
3) Once you create a crisis, I am not a fan of backing down. Creating a crisis and then letting the other party run all over you is the worst outcome possible. By not responding to several acts of military aggression by Iran, he has just communicated to them that they can do what they want and the U.S. won't punish them. That's not a message I think should be delivered to a messianic, fundamentalist theocracy full of corrupt rulers who want to dominate the world, or at the very least their region.
5
Roger Cohen's first paragraph neatly--and tragically--sums up Trump's approach to dealing with Iran.
If there was ever a national security dilemma that demanded subtlety of analysis and consistency of effort, it is this one. Iran is not a monolith, but like most societies when threatened from the outside, the tendency is to pull together and face down the foe. Demanding capitulation in such circumstances is counterproductive. We had a deal that constrained Iran's progress toward building nuclear weapons. Now we have none, nor have we countered Iran's other malign activities. Without a Secretary of Defense to make clear the potential costs of military action, Bolton and Pompeo are at liberty to push for war. They would do well to consider Iran's record during the eight year was with Iraq (started by Saddam, not the Iranian regime). Or examine the consequences of the US's seeking regime change in Iraq. Caveat emptor.
9
Among other motivations mentioned, "the lure of evangelicals’ votes" had Trump determine from day one that the Islamic Republic was the enemy from Central Casting." Agreed. Folks often invoke Trump "playing to his base" without specifying what comprises it. In large part, it consists of this country's evangelicals - more than 25% of our population - which blinds itself to the need for secular political discourse. There ought to be no place for God in American politics. The fact that he/she/they does play a role is an enormous contributor to the tinderbox Middle East mess we're in.
13
Trump's decision to not attack is pure showboating. No way a planned strike would have been within 10 minutes without all the possible effects already discussed and factored into the strike. Trump either never had an attack planned or he chickened out at the last minute. Conversely, there may never have been an attack plan but Trump is trying to show, what I guess in his mind, counts as leadership. I don't think Trump has an Iran plan. All Trump knows from others is that "Iran bad, must do something" What should he do? He has no clue.
9
Going to the precipice and deciding, at the last minute, to stop, is high drama, exceeding what he's previously performed. Despite disappointed hawks, it will earn him praise on both sides, from backers and opponents, for willingness to fight to being sensitive about expected deaths. It's a clever move to benefit himself without, so far, causing any harm.
4
@blgreenie
But what idiotic behavior like this will do is dramatically raise the danger of a catastrophic miscalculation next time.
Also, it will cost us credibility. What Trump shows again and again is that he is a chicken. And the Iranians love playing with chicken - just before they cook 'em.
1
Helpful column.
But you stumbled over one key point when you said:
"The American miscalculation has been flagrant."
The Iran fiasco is not an "American miscalculation" as you say, but rather Trump's miscalculation.
If you read "The Mueller Report" you would know that the GRU inserted malware into electronic voting machines in key electoral states, flipping these and the presidency to Trump, even though he had lost the election by three million votes and a sufficient number of electoral votes.
Effectively, the GRU has facilitated the occupation of the WH by Russia, and the Congress has not aggressively attempted to move them out.
Neither, Trump's supposed base, as you refer to at the end of your column described by Bannon, nor the rest of America want war with Iran.
Put the GRU, Trump, Putin, and the Saudi, would like to see more Americans and Shias die in a conflict which would raise the price of oil.
Impeach.
There has never been a more impeachable person in the Oval Office in all of our history.
15
Specifically what evidence are you referencing? I read the Mueller report and do not remember reading about GRU malware being installed in voting machines.
1
This might have been the first wise decision on Iran this president has taken -- just don't get too comfortable with it.
Like almost everything else he says and does, he's liable to change his mind about it any minute now.
3
Boy, have I missed you Roger. I've been bragging about you since your great column back in 2015 during the lead up to the Iran Deal.
I can quote part of that column from memory. "Do the Iran Deal. Iran is a youthful hopeful society. Embrace the hope. Do not imprison it."
Right On.
Same reasoning applies today. You don't achieve long term strategic goals by taunting, humiliating and goading a people into a box where they feel they have no alternative but to lash out. If there is one truism applicable to all peoples its this: humiliate a people and you've made them an enemy for life. The world is too small for that.
I wouldn't be surprised if Trump is getting a bellyfull of Bolton and Pompeo breathing down his neck. He needs a sophisticated operator to open up a back channel with Iran. This dealing through the Swiss embassy is absurd. We need someone who has operated successfully at a high level and can keep a confidence.
Maybe George Mitchell or Bill Cohen or Ash Carter.
Roger, if Trump asks my opinion, I'll give him your name. Peace.
7
"Trump should not stumble from the everyday outrages that are his political staple into catastrophic error in matters of war and peace. "
This is exactly where the problem lies. He simply can't control himself. And he doesn't know what he's doing. Tragic combination for an America President.
12
Good column.
Might have started with Talleyrand's wisdom and not have ended with it.
Personal choice:).
3
Unquestionably the most important piece Cohen has ever written, unquestionably the only truthful thing about Iran coming out of the Times in two years.
Needless to say, Roger, it could have and should have been written last year. Wouldn't have had to change much.
4
I would have a great deal more respect for the veracity of the decision making of these chicken hawks if they or the loved ones were the first boots on the ground in these conflicts. Selective service should be mandatory for age appropriate immediate offspring of these chicken hawks. Let's get a bill going.
12
@Big Tony We can't even get our Congress to do their constitutional duties to keep this out-of-control autocrat from ruining our country...do you think selective service could possibly be on anyone's radar in DC? The loudest voices for war often come from those least threatened by its consequences but it would be interesting if any of our senior warmongers had some children on the front lines.
2
President Trump needs to go to Iran and make history.
Former President Ford christened the Iran nuclear program back in the day.
at any given school year we had 400k Iranian students in our best universities.
82 million consumers Come on Trump think of the ratings
5
Re: NAFA to USCMA.
Trump should negtiate: "Trump's much better nuclear pact" TMBNP with Iran.
It should be identical to the previous Iran no nukes deal, so it will ensure no progress by Iran except:
a. the name (now TMBNP)
b. trade is enhanced to support American Exporters and
provide jobs.
c. 4 new Trump hotels will be funded by Iran once
trade begins to flow, with Trump getting licensing and
serious management fees.
Come-on Donald, be a generous patriot and help our American workers get jobs building export goods for Iran.
7
Your president loves the idea that he pulled back from the brink, that ultimately he was “smarter” than his advisors, that his gut-instincts won the day. Trump thinks only in terms of “what's this going to cost me?” both in the monetary sense and of course, the political one. Pompeo and Bolton are going to have to wait until Trump sees a way of branding this conflict in order to sell it to his base, not that will take much. Print the placards, wave them around, as long as Trump rubber-stamps and markets it, they'll cheer for anything!
8
When you let an IQ 85 person who can't read a whole page of text and watches TV half the day play President, this is what you get. A near-military action, if even that happened, something that could have escalated, if realized, leaving the guy with his pants down and hundreds or thousands killed. An America not to be proud of.
11
Thank Goodness we have Roger Cohen and the rest of the NY Times staff to tell us how the country should be run. They are so wise!
4
@Raz
Could not agree more. I always feel so lucky to be informed by these genius reporters from the NYT. The ones who believe Obama was a modern day Metternich, who brought peace and stability to North Africa with his Cairo speech. The ones who thought the Benghazi Bamboozler, Ms Clinton, was a shoo-in to win in 2016. The ones who won't see a Trump victory in 2020 until around January 2023!
@Raz
Compared to the buffoon in the White House, and his bootlicking enablers in the Senate, they are.
2
@Sipho
LOL
I'm glad someone could see I was being... :)
So glad Putin stepped in here to stop Trump.
496
@Bjh - Maybe the last think Vlad wants is war on his border with the US involved... good thing he's got someone in the Oval Office who is 'sympatico' to his desires...
16
Trump has put himself and the US in an extremely weak position. He canceled a reasonable deal, because Obama had negotiated it and now has a weaker hand with which all he can hope for is to negotiate a worse deal.
Just what I expected from the world's greatest showboat. No competence in anything, being played by all the world's despots and dictators like a fiddle.
What a clown!
14
This entire episode reminds me of an uncannily appropriate exchange from the show Mad Men. When Pete Campbell and Joan realize that Don Draper just called off a highly sought after business deal without informing them, and is trying to convince them that an alternative that landed in their lap is much better, they are livid. "You didn't know of a better deal before you cancelled. You are just Tarzan swinging from vine to vine. We are all just waiting here to find out what you have planned for us next".
1
Bibi and MBS will enthusiastically applaud while Trump carries out their war with Iran for them. All this President wants is to be fawned over so he can convince himself that he is not "a loser". And Bibi and MBS sure know how to make him roll over and give his fragile ego a tummy rub.
14
Why are we surprised? We have an idiot and a war monger running our foreign policy.
10
This article is full of the keen moral analysis that I have come to expect from Mr. Cohen, a writer of surpassing eloquence. The one point I would critique is the notion that since Iran has a national identity going back thousands of years its leaders are somehow possessed of some kind of extra wisdom. IMO many of them are living in the past with their minds in the grip of religious fundamentalism. Of course they look adult next to Mr. Trump, who wouldn't?
421
@James Levy Thousands of years of exercising foreign policy as a key player, including a tortuous 400 year-long history of dealing with the West, certainly has had a notable effect on forming the current "wisdom" in the foreign policy of Iran.
18
@James Levy
I'm sure a lot of folks are starting to worry that the US of A is also "living in the past with their minds in the grip of religious fundamentalism."
124
@James Levy
Not wisdom, resilience.
19
Mr. Cohen makes a huge mistake when he states, as a fact, that Trump called off the air strike at the last minute when he received a casualty assessment. We should never assume that Trump speaks the truth, as he always says whatever he thinks will help him, regardless of the truth.
A military casualty assessment is not generally offered at the last minute. Trump's statement was almost certainly not true. His lying is especially troubling in these international crisis, as there is no reason to believe anything coming out of his mouth.
What Trump says should always be characterized bv the media as a "claim", and not as a statement of fact.
1085
@Richard McCartan Well said. It is indeed very surprising to see how many actually believe that trump's statement has any degree of truth to it.
118
@Richard McCartan
Add to that
1)since when does he have compassion?
2)Since when does he care about anyone who's not from a wealthy country?
3)his economic advisers must have told him about the potentially large increase in the price of oil which acts like a large tax on Americans and would slow the economy, hurting his chances for re-election.
77
@Richard McCartan
He tried to save face and be a graceful chicken.
41
This was certainly a bit of political theater, or reality TV, if you will.
Order up a military strike, get the planners planning, the pilots briefed, and the ordnance loaded. Get the hearts of Mike Pompeo, John Bolton, and Tom Cotton going pitter-pat.
Then at the last minute, in a rare show of probity, call it all off. America's premier showman has not lost his touch.
570
@Dave - now it’s time to tell John Bolton, in front of a national TV audience, “you’re fired”.
50
@Dave, he hasn’t lost his touch, but any mind he may have possessed was lost at birth.
15
All just one big disgusting trump stunt.
20
Well done. I am in complete agreement. This was the first wise thing Trump has done, but the problem would not be there in if we had honored our part of the deal. The US is an international embarrassment.
422
@Anthony from Western Kansas America did honor the nuclear deal part of shipping millions of dollars in cash to Iran in the middle of the night. Iran did not enrich more Uranium but it flexed its muscle through proxy wars in the middle east and support to terrorist organizations. Agreed the US during the Bush and Obama administration has been an embarrassment in this century for igniting the useless regime change change wars in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Libya and Afghanistan.
1
@Girish Kotwal -- The 'deal' wasn't about proxies. The 'deal' wasn't about Hezbollah and Lebanon, or Israel, or the Palestinians. The 'deal' wasn't about Syria.
The 'deal' was crafted specifically, carefully, and over years of discussion to *only* address Iran's nuclear programs, and to deter Iran's development of nuclear weapons. That's it. The only thing.
So to now criticize the 'deal' for not covering Iran's other actions, Iran's proxies, or Iran's political state is not logical. It is a sign of someone who fails to understand the entire and sole purpose of the 'deal'.
If Trump wants to address those other things, the he should sit down with the Iranians and negotiate another, separate 'deal'... instead of reneging on the nuclear agreement in a fit of political pique.
28
@Girish Kotwal
While I was not thrilled with our previous presidents' abilities to deal with the Middle East, especially Bush 43, our current administration and its complete lack of evidence for any policy decisions is an embarrassment. By the way, Yemen's civil war has our current administration's fingerprints all over it.
19
Indeed it was a wise decision. with sound reasoning. I'm continually looking for hope with this Commander in Chief and this gives me some.
4
@Lew
Lew,
I wish I could share your optimism. Unfortunately this is the one and only area where I disagree with Mr. Cohen.
It is my belief that this "change of mind" was probably premeditated and yet another example of Trump playing "chicken" with Iran. " See! I'm a compassionate guy". Sorry. Not in Trump's DNA.
Bruce
166
@Lew Look he is doing for his base, thank God they do not want war. Who would have thunk that his base would save our collective behinds. I am grateful they know this war is wrong and trump did say he would end these endless wars and bring the troops home. trump has made them angry with the tax cuts for the rich and the farmers are non to happy, yes he is still pretending to be one of them and against the swamp and he lies something terrible but I am applauding him giving his base this promise, of course even at Fox they are divided and Tucker Carlson who is a racist and elite is my hero in this too. Not so some of the others at Fox. Strange bedfellows, I will take it. Now look for more jerking trump around by Bolton and the other war hawks. Who will win over the ego of trump.
7
@Lew
I wish it were so.
I actually hope that Putin used his pressures to change this point in this psychotic narrative.
11
Instead of a real President, leading the country, we have a man who plays at being "President" as a TV reality show. What matters most to him is the applause and the ratings, and he goes into a sulk when he doesn't get them. We've seen it again and again. Now we're facing a real crisis (one of his own making, mind), and he doesn't seem to have the faintest idea of what to do. His advisors are giving him conflicting advice, and all he can think about is how he likes "giving commands" and having them obeyed.
How did it come to this?
1121
@Ellen Valle - Answer: "Democracy requires an informed electorate." It came to this because many, many millions of the people in this country don't know - or care - one iota about how government works and what it takes to be an informed voter. THAT'S how it came to this.
633
@Sarah: My question was a rhetorical one, but I certainly agree with you; that was indeed one of the main reasons.
By the way, the phrase "How did it come to this" was actually borrowed from a genuine though unwilling leader of his people, in despair facing a war he wasn't prepared for and didn't want, and feared would destroy his people: King Theoden.
61
@Ellen Valle, In reply to your question, How did it come to this? It came to this with a large group of voters who, like the President, can't think through tremendously complex issues like what the world faces today. They were more than ready for simplistic, populist messages, like "The Iran deal is the worst in history," and "Only I can solve America's problems." They ate up Fox news. Then Trump, with all his psychological and personality disabilities, was at the right (actually wrong) place to capitalize on it. This is one of the complications we've been waiting for. You can't keep dodging a bullet when a dysfunctional group is in charge.
235
The Apprentice the Middle East version ,the world needs to tune in next week to see what our entertainer and chief decides to tweet. THe message is always the same "look at me" I am so wonderful know more than anyone on any subject gorgeous to look at and blindingly brilliant. Stay tunes the TV president will call into Fox NEWS where the sycophants fawn over the buffoon and have trouble getting him to hang up as as usual it all about him 24/7. Has America had enough of this crazy tv show where lives are now at risk because of his chaotic jealousy of Obama.
11
Two things are fairly obvious, first the U.S. at the moment is using WMD (weapons of mass disinformation) and second the strike was called off because the military owned up to the drone being over Iranian territorial waters, and probably Iran can prove it.
The consequences are frightning if Bolton and co. get their way
6
@Michael Kelly
More likely someone actually got thru to Trump, pointing at the few handfuls of ground forces we have in Syria and Iraq are surrounded by Shiite militias. The last thing Trump wants is coffins being offloaded at Dover when he's preening before his adoring fans.
Wisdom is not a word that should be associated with Donald J. Trump. Trump operates on his gut; wisdom has nothing to do with it.
We got lucky, is all.
This time...
3
We should always remember the historic examples of how wars have often started: with an "outrage" brought on by the party seeking war. In the Mexican-American war of 1846 and forward, American troops were sent to a place where it was known Mexico would attack. Thus, War! became a response to this intentional provocation. In Vietnam, the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution authorized war but the North Vietnamese attack on an American ship has been called into question as bogus or intentionally provoked. This is an old story, often repeated.
If you want war, you find a way to bring it on in a manner that makes it appear the other side was the aggressor. Since we are never likely to know the full story, it is worth questioning just where the drone was when it was shot down, our government's statements notwithstanding.
Trump going to war is one of the most scary potentials of his real estate promoter administration. He doesn't know American history ("Many people didn't know that Lincoln was a Republican", "Frederick Douglass is doing a wonderful job.") much less have the depth of understanding to operate in the middle-east.
Where is the US Congress on all of this? Once again demonstrating how gutless they can be?
6
Only a couple of weeks ago, an NYT column had us "slouching towards impeachment". Can we please give Yeats a rest. The sense of impending doom is quite powerful enough without summoning images of the beast with his "gaze blank" and his "slow thighs".
4
I am unclear why we believe the cover story about last
minute cancellation when informed of potential civilian
casualties. Such information must be a large feature of
any military plan presented to decision makers. They surely knew of this, if, in fact, it was so included in the plan's description.
To claim that in the last "10 minutes" trump was informed of
the casualties possibility is laughable, even for an administration as incompetent and disorganized as this one.
The only explanation is that bolton+pompeo neglected to include that in their final deliberation with trump and someone in the military did. In that case, trump should be furious at bolton+pompeo. But we also do not hear of that today.
So my sense is that the last minute cancellation has another purpose. Perhaps it is to exhibit a scintilla of moderation
prior to the storm needed to help convince the American population that their leader did not go to war at the first possible moment. It took a second provocation, surely in the works, to do that. This would make the job of selling that to his base somewhat easier.
In the meantime I would not be surprised if the purposeful games of hide and seek with drones along the Iranian coast continued to tease Iranian air defense systems to see if it can detect incursions, and, in the process, to test Iranian resolve to shoot then down when this occurs.
It is this game that can easily let loose a far more calamitous event. Is there any point to it?
13
@bl
These are trenchant conjectures, careful observation. The problem with the element of surprise, as expressed in the next to last paragraph, is that the purpose is really what the National Security Adviser and the Secretary of State intend it to be: a war of conquest of Iran, based upon subterfuge, false flag incidents, and a slavish adherence to an alliance with the main illegitimacy in the world, the Zionists. How to fuel the next and successive generation(s) of Rolls Royces is now and was a main concern of the Republicans. The dramatic plans of the Saudi prince for the Yemeni coastline at the expense of the Yemenis, i.e. costing them their lives, parallels the Zionist dream of complete conquest of Palestine with no opposition, which they appear to believe that they are living. Over time the KSA, if it survives, as with U.S. military largess granted to it it must, will probably shatter that dream of the Zionists, but at what cost? Iran is a culture which is too valuable to ignore and ruin. The people always suffer in these jingoistic assertions and threatened adventurist endeavors; it should be remembered that these are backed by increasingly real conditions which a tyro- demagogue could follow in serving as poster boy for policy-creating neocons who care not one whit for the consequences of their actions, except careful treading to various banks. The bottom line is that in so far as morality is concerned, the aspect of superiority has laughingly replaced right action.
This is what happens when an unqualified person who has no understanding of the world, is elected POTUS. Maybe Trump and his buddy Bolton actually think Iran is just going to let the US threaten and intimidate them without consequences.
Unfortunately, the US doesn't have many friends in the world other than Isreal and Saudi Arabia. No other former allies are going to go to put their armed forces in harms way to help the US achieve its objectives. We don't even know quite what these objectives are.
I hope in 2020, the American voters will realize Trump must be voted out for the good of the US and the whole world. These are dangerous times.
34
@Ted D True, but it bears reminding that Trump lost that election by three million votes that we know of. The leftover fossil from the slave state era, The Electoral College, was what double crossed the will of the voters and put him in office.
Why can't you admit the problem is the JCPOA Iran nuclear deal itself? That's the ultimate precipitating factor here.
The deal was "kick the can" codified.
Caps on centrifuges are well and good, but they start to terminate now in 6 years. And in 11 years, all restrictions terminate.
The deal was intentionally designed to require a later renegotiation. There was no way around it. Kick the can, codified.
So we would be dealing with the same issues we are today in 2026 or 2031.
6
@Mmm
No, your assumptions are incorrect. Had you paid attention to the past diplomatic efforts in Iran you would have realized the efforts taking place with a more moderate populace in Iran and all the positives that moderation could bring to diplomatic efforts. But moderation no longer suits the war mongers in office today. And Trump only fixed a problem he created. He is intellectually and emotionally unfit for the presidency.
4
Roger, Trump's calling off of attack could also be similar to the call off of a second wave of B52's attack on Hanoi during the December 1972 bombing campaign due to unforeseen losses from previous wave.
For the first time in US military history, a wave of bombers in mid air set to carry out follow up strikes was aborted due to enemy capabilities. Hanoi accomplished what Japan and Germany could not---Force the US to abort combat mission until the capabilities of the enemy could be countered.
The NVA had new Team Work radar at one Fan Song radar site whose frequency could not be picked up by US F4 and F105 weasel ECM. None of the B52 jammers worked against the Team Work radars. This together with poor planning on the approach routes of B52's accounted for the excessive early losses in the bombing campaign. Most blame SAC Omaha command.
Perhaps, the US was surprised at some Iranian capability and are instituting what they learned into a future planned strike for the last thing Trump needs is a shot down of American stealth aircraft and capture of pilot.
One thing is certain, China and Russia are the winners in any war between US and Iran. They will learn all US tactics and weapon capabilities and US defenses against various ballistic missiles.
3
A Pentagon map indicades 'international airspace'. Our "Imperial Navy' claims sovereignty wherever & whenever it can. The Trump Administration doesn't recognize international law or treaties it doesn't like. The US is trying to strangle Iran, Iran responds with: "Don't Tread on Me." Some tricky concepts here: Who has jurisdiction regarding the passage over & through these territorial waters and air of these troubled narrows? Starting wars has a way of blowing back, e.g Viet Nam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, et al. What's Trump's objective to close the Straits of Hormuz?
2
One thing that is being extensively overlooked, especially in the media, is the fact that a certain subset of Christians, I think primarily of the evangelical persuasion, actively want war in the Middle East because their view is that such a war is a precursor for the Second Coming, wherein they all get to Rapture off to heaven, leaving the rest of us heathens behind to finally get our just desserts.
29
I still can’t believe this guy is the one who gets to decide. What is the world coming to?
9
George Bush and Dick Cheney walked away from the catastrophic and illegal invasion with generous pensions.
Why should Trump fear the consequences of another Middle East war? The media would fall in line and millions of bumpers would sport "Support Our Troops" stickers
12
Seems to me that the driving force in this escalation with Iran are our dear friends MBS and Bibi. What a dynamic duo.
18
Why should we concern ourselves with regime change in Iran, when we have regime change issues of our own here in the United States?
We need a president. Not someone who plays one on tv.
Amateur hour ends in 2020. Get out and vote like your life depends on it.
28
This is an excellent column. What is happening in relation to Iran should come as no surprise. To those of us who have followed Bolton's career it was with very grave concern that we watched this man's confirmation as National Security Adviser by the US Senate. This is where he wants to be with Iran and no doubt he is disappointed that Trump (somehow) saw sense at the last minute. We can only look on in horror as Trump is pushed and pulled by the various factions looking to manipulate him and it leaves the rest of the world deeply unsettled as to what might come next. Bellicosity should be Bolton's middle name although when it was his turn to serve he chickened out. The very worst moral and physical coward now wants to thrust young men and women into a conflict which no one can win. What a dangerous combination, a foolish and uninformed 'decider' being primed and manipulated by men with long held malevolent objectives. It is only a matter of luck that someone nobbled Trump before it was too late. Terrifying.
3
@Hopeoverexperience "we watched this man's confirmation as National Security Adviser by the US Senate."
Where'd you see that? He requires no confirmation. Pompeo does.
I can't help but think this all starts with the appointment of John Bolton, one of a succession of gadflies appointed by Trump seemingly with the sole objective being to troll centrists and leftists. So many of his appointments seem to have begun with the query, "Who could I appoint that would absolutely drive the opposition into fits of righteous fury?"
Well, leadership-by-troll gets you into messes like this. Keep appointing malcontents and extremists instead of the most qualified person for the job and you can count on more messes like this one.
17
Any righteous government (which we do not have) would put a deliberate provocateur and flamethrower like Bolton into solitary confinement, if not worse. The man is a walking time bomb.
1
Trump and his advisors are men filled with hubris and any such group as the Greeks well knew is headed for problems.
2
Everyday chaos, crisis and lies.
When do we get relief from the constand stress of our country at the mercy of a merciless fool of our country out of rational control?
I work on a crisis unit. One does not prevent crises by doing everything under the sun known to cause crises.
I expect my president to work hard, to do whatever it takes to keep us safe but instead we have a witless person who has tossed diplomacy out the window from a ruminating stew of jealous rage towards his predessesor, who will start a war because he cannot think rationally.
I don't feel safe with this fool as president.
8
It’s cynical to say - but i’ll say it: Trump created this drama of last minute humanitarian ideals to make himself look humanitarian. Consider it!
Can we believe based on past performance that he is capable of empathy and morals. He played us, again! Trump doesn’t have a moral corpuscle in his blood. Image!
8
I disagree that Trump "decided" anything. Someone TOLD him the TRUE consequences of what he was getting into ... maybe it was Putin ... and it wasn't 150 dead Iranians, it was Trump's certain body part in a wringer, and he folded.
Not that it matters more than it was stopped before it went farther ... but his not having any idea of what he was going to do until 10 MINUTES before the start of a major war is astounding!
That's not a "decision" ... that's a whim.
7
According to Trump's tweet, he was targeting Iranian "sights," not Iranian "sites." He wanted to spoil their tourist trade?
1
What else do you think from a person who do not have the mental ability (despite his claim to be a genius) to think past the next sound bite or gratuitous compliment.
But..he has surrounded himself w/ false advisors..but he isn't intelligent enough to know that.
to any trump supports who read this..please ask your kids to enlist into the military ..which Trump so sorely wants to use to be a 'big president'
3
So you believe Trump's most recent rendition of events?
3
George Will on Trump: This is what happens when presidency is treated as entry-level
4
I served over 25 years in the Army and am proud of that. Having said that, my military aged son is asking if he could be drafted if we go to war with Iran. I tell him it is unlikely to come to that. If it ever came to bear I would have a tough time supporting it. I won't say what I would actually do in this forum. I will say hypothetically that I would do everything in my power to ensure my son does not die in some senseless conflict resulting from a crisis Trump and his minions concocted out of thin air. I'll say preemptively - bring it on all Trump blowhards if you want to question my patriotism. We'll have to agree to disagree. It is a free country after all!
9
The fundamental problem is that Congress has bailed on its most Constitutionally sacred responsibility, going on record and declaring war, for many decades. Not Korea, Viet Nam, Afghanistan, Iraq, nor a number of lesser military engagements elicited a Declaration of War from Congress, even as that body funded those wars.
Of course the ultimate fault for this shameful state of affairs, though, is that of the American people which has not just tolerated but encouraged its elected representatives to more and more turn over power to a succession of Presidents and the Executive Branch in general.
5
The sad thing is Mr. Cohen hit the nail on the head with every noun, adjective and verb in this essay but Trump is still going to be re-elected in 2020 because healthy functioning democracies are the exception not the rule and we are witnessing first hand the solution to the Fermi Paradox.
4
Best decision by 45th, lets reelect in 2020 for another term.
@Trevor Diaz: No, he'll be sent back to NYC, where a creep like Trump belongs.
Well said, Mr. Cohen. Trump's use of threats as a bargaining tactic has failed so far. It didn't work with North Korea, Venezuela, Mexico, Europe, NATO, Canada; and it sure won't work with Iran. Trump proclaims "America First" as if it possesses some kind of mojo that instills fear and awe in others. Any country with a shred of self-respect and pride will find overt and conspiratorial ways to fight back. They are looking out for #1 too. Is that so difficult for the Trump Administration to absorb? This isn't a real estate deal. It's about the culture and history of peoples that Trump is poking and prodding.
Since his election, I have been not just opposed to, but aghast at the lack of morality of, President Trump. One curiosity arises in the decision to hold off on an attack against Iran, and that is that he uses the word “proportional” in reference to his decision because of the potential of 150 deaths. The concept of proportionality with regard to the conduct of a nation in a war is a key element of “just war theory.” It would be interesting to probe his use of the word “proportional” and where he got that from. Or did he just stumble on a word that is a key concept of just “just war theory?”
6
Mr. Cohen believes that the Nuclear Agreement is working
Israel, with the best intelligence in the Mid East does not
Consequently, Israel has pressured the US to do something about it - hence the embargo
Trump election strategy is to please Israel, as shown for example his move of the US embassy, and his support for Mr Natanyahu's plan to annex the West Bank
To his credit, the President has refused to move beyond the embargo, in the face of Iranian provocations
2
@Lars Iran was meeting the mandate until Trump precipitously pulled the US out of it. This situation is 100% Trump's doing. He created a crisis where there was not one before. Of course Isreal is going to pile on the rhetoric.
10
@Lars: Israel’s intelligence services have about the same level of trust by Netanyahu as our services do from Trump. That is, both “leaders” don’t want intel; they want political support.
6
The problem with the administration's "maximum pressure" through increasing sanctions and military threats, combined with a lack of clear strategy and a cacophonous public discourse is that nobody knows what the administration really wants. Sec Pompeo came out in January with a unrealistic list of 12 requirements as a condition to start any negotiation. We all know that will not happen. Unlike our politicians, the mullahs are rational; for them the outcome of the current confrontation with the US is the survival (or not) of the regime. On our side, the neocon class redux wishful thinking consists of the surrender of the regime or for the people to topple their leaders under duress. The more realistic outcome will be for the regime to increase its provocations inviting a muscular response leading to an all out war. To avoid war President Trump should start by firing his National Security Advisor who has lost credibility almost everywhere and is at odds with his boss' strategic vision. The second step should be to determine the objectives of a negotiation with our allies and other world powers. Objectives should be attainable and defendable by all parties; extending the length of the nuclear accord to 25 years or limiting the range of ballistic missiles are attainable objectives and and will be widely accepted by our partners. Changing the "nature" of the regime less so... We can't ask Iran things we won't ask our "allies" such as the KSA.
6
@FCH We don't need another war. But let's don't fool ourselves on the nuclear agreement Iran struck with world powers in 2015. If they can get away with it they will violate the “spirit” as well as the letter of the treaty. That serves their long term interests. To think for a billionth of a second that Iran is a vexing state that can be smartly managed is delusional...even idiotic. We have had zero success... both Republicans & Democrats... in managing anything well in the Middle East from Day One. We have to assume given Iran's past & current conduct that they will always be our enemy until proven otherwise. They have zero long-term potential for democratization, education, Westernization, etc. as long as they are funding & directing Hezbollah, which they will continue to do for the immediate future. Hezbollah acts as a proxy for Iran in the ongoing Iran–Israel conflict. Hezbollah was conceived by Muslim clerics & funded by Iran primarily to attack & kill Israelis which they continue to do. Hezbollah actively engages in Holocaust denial & spreads anti-Semitic conspiracy theories. Its leaders are committed fanatics. The Arab League, United States, Europe, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, & Israel have classified Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. Hezbollah receives most of its training, & aid from Iran. They are ruthless and violent terrorists...one of the worst in the Middle East. The hardliners will always control Iran. We need to remember that.
1
It is likely that a majority of Americans under the age of 60 or so know that the U.S. staged a coup against Iran in the 1950s, deposing a popularly elected Communist and replacing him with a Persian monarch with a fragile relationship with freedom.
The 1979 counter-coup toppled the monarchical regime and replaced it with a deeply conservative ruling class made up mostly of reactionary mullahs. The American hostages held captive following the coup were released on the day Ronald Reagan became President. It was among the most cynical ploys ever concocted by two governments—ours and their’s.
The lesson from this fraught history is that Iran profoundly distrusts the United States. The nuclear deal championed by Barack Obama and the other signatories was a tentative first step in trying to rebuild some semblance of trust between our two nations. It was working, until Trump became the Republican nominee and began listening to obviously biased advisors like Netanyahu, the Saudi royals, the disgraceful Tom Cotton of Arkansas, and the usual hawkish mob led by John Bolton, et al.
Trump has been played for the fool he is, and we are all paying the price for his bone-headed choices in one of the world’s most dangerous places.
115
@PaulB67 Agree entirely except on one point. Mossadegh was not a communist, - he was a nationalist who wanted the oil-benefits to go to Iranians rather than to the British and Americans.
12
@PaulB67 "... The nuclear deal...was a tentative first step..."
Actually there was at least a lot of talk about reconciliation pre-9/11. And I recall reading a few days after 9/11 that the mullahs (in Tehran? the whole nation? I don't recall) stopped including "Death to America" in their daily public prayer.
Then, of course, came the Axis of Evil speech, where Bush lumped Iran & Iraq together, though they had just fought a particularly bloody war and were not an Axis of anything. And the American people bought it hook, line, & sinker.
2
@PaulB67: Only five things need to be dropped on Iran: Trump, Pence, Bolton, Pompeo, and Cotton, all without parachutes and over unpopulated areas to ensure that there will be no civilian casualties. Or they could all resign, become contestants on Survivor, and we could all watch them trying to build a fire (they will all try blowing hot air at it), and to see who gets voted off the island.
8
And then there's that old aphorism from George Santayana about repeating history because you forgot it (and the lessons learned). Or, in Trump's case, because he never let history intrude into his tidy life of self-absorption, there was never anything to forget in the first place.
9
Iran poses no threat at all to the continental USA.
The USA clearly poses a threat to Iran but implementation of any such threat will be suicide for the USA as empire, renewed disaster for Middle Eastern countries that have already suffered enough, and who knows what for Israel.
I see no answers at all in reporting about the downed drone to explain what critical information it might have collected if it had not entered Iranian airspace (Pentagon-Trump version) or what it might have provided if it had arrived over Iranian airspace.
I assume the drone is in real -ime communication with its handler. What are the data for that flight? Has the Congress been given that information?
Was the purpose in simple truth to provide Trump-Bolton with an excuse for unleashing bombs on Iran? If so then the insanity redline has been crossed.
Since Iran poses no threat at all to continental USA there is only one choice.
End provocation. Add to that the beginning of impeachment proceedings.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Citizen US SE
12
"Obama"///International parties deal with Iran was to stop working on the bomb in exchange for normal trade relations.
The deal was working, so how does Trump withdrawal of that deal and his embargo which is pushing Iran to renew its work on the bomb is making the US safer, or even preventing Iran to get the bomb.
And why is Iran the target when it does not have the bomb, no more than Irak's Sadam Huseein had it, when North Korea "little rocket man" has bombs and rockets to deliver them if Trump attacks him on a whim?
2
I have no doubt Bolton, Pompeo or Trump wouldn't lose a minute of sleep if they started a war they couldn't stop, or sent thousands of troops to their deaths because of a 30 year old Bolton grudge against Iran. Persians are a very proud people. Thousands of years of history will do that. Would any of our war hawks be prepared if they had bombed Iran and then Iran sent a cloud of anti-ship missiles after a carrier force or a dozen tankers. I doubt it. Confrontations escalate out of control quickly even with an experienced group of people planning things. With this White House it's the Three Stooges consulting a Magic 8-Ball.
27
How is it that any one of a small number of self-absorbed and/or morally corrupt individuals have, potentially, the lives of millions and perhaps even the fate of the earth in their hands?
46
@John George
The answer is simple. Millions of American voters
voted for him and his party enablers in such a way that he gained the majority of electoral college votes and they gained power in the Senate. You need to
ask those millions the rationale for their choice. I am
sure it will not be a pleasant nor terribly coherent
answer to hear.
4
@bl Unfortunately, I live in a community now that is "Trump Central", his supporters here have had their brains turned to mush by many years of overdosing on Hannity, Rush, Ingraham, Coulter and the rest of the ranting fascists of hate media.
2
"Trump the Showman" who concentrates babies in enclosures, earns no compassion points for calling off military action on Iran. It's pure show to ask what the human cost of American soldiers would be in an attack. Anyone knows the answer: it would be dire. But the clever (in his own mind) Showman doesn't think of the human cost. Not for one second. He thinks, instead, of a way to absolve himself in the face of his reckless decision. With ten minutes to go (do you see/feel the drama in that?!), he cries out to the audience, "I cannot throw our great American soldiers into the fire. I will rescue them from such a horrid end. I am both the Great Leader and the Great Father." Oh, please.
12
@Sarahm45: You are so right! It’s like his star search-esque search for the next Secretary of State ...
Iran is "broke" again. Their currency is in free fall. We are inflicting untold damage on innocent civilians who probably hate the government's foreign policy, but can do nothing about it. Think of them first before we get so worked up over our precious drone or whatever. They have the technical expertise to build a nuclear-equipped missile and strike Europe or just about anyone else they want. I hate the "regime" and I can only imagine the ill will they have towards the United States and all of our allies. But we are rational and reasonable even if we are cautious and realistic. So let's act that way. Talk softly and carry a big stick. Treat the Iranian "people" with respect. We need a State Department, not Mr.Pompous and Bullet-Head Bolton. Trump hired them, and he can fire them- he's good at that.
7
The insidious damage Trump does to the domestic sphere is terrible and leads to long-term problems. This is an urgent catastrophe that will lead to much death and destruction if we're not able to cool it down.
3
EXCELLENT ARTICLE. Could not have said it any better.
5
So easy to tear up an agreement, so hard to then pick up the pieces...
9
Reality tv colliding with real international conflict in real time in this fake time we appear to be living through.
What exactly are "America's interests in the Middle East." We've been meddling there for many years now, causing death and destruction. To what end?
18
@Ellen: oil
Donald Trump is just begging the Iranians for a deal. As is usual for Trump’s “art of the deal”, he will threaten to blow everything up until his counterpart offers him a “better deal”.
All his bluster usually ends up with a marginal change in terms. The Iranian car dealers need to offer Trump an extra set of luxury floor mats for his new vehicle purchase, so he will be satisfied, and make the deal.
1