Who counts the votes in Florida? I believe Stalin who said the most important thing about elections is who counts the votes. Republicans count the votes there. In counties heavily democratic, they count them very slowly if at all. Until Democrats control state politics in Florida they should concede Florida's electoral votes and focus money and energy on Great Lakes states where the 2020 Presidential election will be decided.
Ms. Mercado, please come back here and talk to me after you have elected a Democratic governor who has reformed the election process in your state.
11
Florida, along with Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, & Wisconsin, needs to be a major focus for the Dems....NOW.
Hot Take: Bill Nelson deserved to lose Florida in 2018 because he barely ran a campaign, no matter who he was running against. Dem pollsters and pundits (including those in this very paper!) keep confidently predicting Latinos will vote blue and then handwringing when this group yet again turns out to be much more diverse than they thought.
Not everyone has a newspaper subscription. Not everyone automatically cares about Democrat priorities (even though imo they're a better reflection of what the populace wants/needs). It's human nature to trust actual genuine outreach, and I never understand why the Dem party machine can't comprehend that.
5
In every race it's all about turnout and that means a good ground game. Yes there are very heavy sections of FLA that are Trump territories like the Villages but there are concerns that affect these older populations that the GOP is ready to throw under the bus. It will be close but will require great effort but that will be the case everywhere. Unfortunately we have to wait until there is a Democratic Candidate not 20+
2
I will be retiring from one of those "failure" states this year to Florida. But rest assured, as a registered democrat, I will not be changing my party affiliation. As a matter of fact, my retirement goal is to do my best to turn Florida blue! I know Florida is big Trump country - boy do I know that! But I have hope.
13
Perhaps Latin-Americans and African-Americans could look at Trump and the Republican right-wing power structure and figure out on their very own that these people are corrupt thugs and need to be voted out of power. Maybe read The New York Times, 'How Democracies Die', both available for free at the local library, and act to prevent a complete fascist takeover by registering to vote and voting Democratic. I had read that a fair number of African-Americans had sat out the 2016 presidential election because Ms. Clinton was not African-American herself. How unfortunate that has been for the world and for democracy.
2
If Democrats really want to win Florida maybe they should dump Debbie Wasserman Schultz's Party Machine. Or would you rather have young and minority voters turned off by Debbie's dirty tricks the way they were turned off in 2016? Then after you lose again you can blame on those those ungrateful lazy millennials and Bernie bros who can't even be bothered to vote for those who shafted them.
2
Advice for Democrats in Florida. Don't mention the reparation thing. Bad idea. Matter of fact, call you Congressperson and ask them to not support this majorly dumb undertaking.
1
Organized Republican efforts at voter suppression will dictate the Florida results in 2020, just like they did in 2018.
5
The presidential Democratic primary race is a distraction from the more important state races. Win state legislatures and Congress and let the Democratic Presidential nominee ride their coattails.
15
I applaud Andrea Mercado for the opinion piece. She is absolutely right, the Democrats needs to improve the engagement because poor folks are less likely to vote, however the policies that Democrats want to pass, will help those people.
Mind you, many poor Floridians are white too, in rural areas with high unemployment, substandard healthcare and low opportunities to better their lot.
Reaching out to people that usually do not vote worked for the Gillum primary campaign, and can work for future elections.
I look forward to seeing New Florida Majority's work this upcoming cycle.
3
No, Democrats can't win Florida. It's a lost cause. Why not focus on the states that they can win? If they win every state they won in 2016 and manage a few thousand more votes in Pennsylvania and Michigan, Trump is gone. Maybe try actually campaigning in those states this time.
2
The writer fails to mention that If blacks and Latinos voted for
Hillary in the same numbers they voted for Obama in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida, Trump would not be president today.
Black clergy, teachers, elected officials and yes, Oprah Winfrey,
Shaquille ONiell, Carmelo Anthony, Le Bron James and other celebri ties, need to go knocking on doors in African American communities, not just popping off on twitter
5
As a life long Democrat in a Republican FL County it ain’t going to happen. We are going to lose anything we gained in 2018. Every day is something new. Today Booker wants to let drug dealers go, yesterday Pelosi came out for reparations. Biden is a disaster every time he opens his mouth. Pocahontas wants to pay the loans of those that went to colleges they couldn’t afford. Booker wants free rent. Harris wants women to get money just because they are women. It is now the Identity Party and they don’t want us old white men.
5
Make Stacey Abrams head of the DNC.
4
No, the democrats cannot and will not win Florida. That "election" is already over.
6
@Sang Ze
If Dems keep talking reparations, they might as well concede the election immediately.
Stupid Dems really know how to commit political suicide with this issue.
Geesch.
12
Lot of Trumpies down in FL. God bless, what can you do? But Bill Clinton and Barack Obama eked out 4 wins, and Gore v. Bush was a "tie."
2
Dems need a huge effort in Florida, if only because this competitive state is in the "must-win" column for the Dear Leader.
2
As usual, the only thing that matters : Who does the Counting.
Flori-DUH.
3
Ms Mercado, I say Bravo! to you and your group for doing this work. It is very important because saving our democracy is not up to just the Democratic Party, it is up to We the People.
So it is up to groups like yours, and others, who are doing the retail politics to open doors for progress
If We the People don't see that the crime family and their party who currently control the White House and Senate need to go then our very Nation is at risk.
Over the next 16 months we will hear from a lot of different candidates their solutions for the problems that plague the Nation. Ideas that might have sounded scary a year ago will sound less so a year from now.
But if we don't care that our White House is being occupied by fascists, racists, and imperialists then we will get what we deserve. It will be US building those concentration camps along the border. It will be US separating babies from their mothers. It will be US building walls between ourselves and our allies.
We the People need to so our part and if We have to work harder than the Party seems to be working so be it.
Let's get to work.
3
There is no way that the Democrats can pick up votes from MAGA-hat Trumpers - they live in a closed universe where truth and morality are unknown. It is the moderates who still have a sense of patriotism that will abandon the Republican Party - the party that has abandoned Constitution and made a laughing stock out of the United States by greasing the ignorant lying fraud Donald Trump into the White House with Russian help. No one who respects this country can vote for Trump or any Republican for that matter.
4
National Democratic Party, as seen in Florida, is MIA and was even absent during 2016 when they seemed to just write off Florida and not make an effort. (I was incredulous) Only thing Dems ever sent me in the last 5 years are requests for money, or guilt trips ("you haven't sent money yet!")
Meanwhile my Spam filter gets daily messages from Florida GOP, and they find me via snail mail, too. It's not all dunning for money but invites to barbecues, events, debates, photo-ops, "thanks" after the elections.... I'm sure they'd ask for money if I responded, but in general their touch is surprisingly soft, especially as compared to the ignore-except-to-demand-money approach of Dems.
If I wasn't already a committed liberal, it'd be very easy to swing GOP in Florida.
Been in Florida 25+ years and hate to say it, but the GOP has its act together here and the Democratic Party does not.
7
21 Candidates, get down to Florida, hold your symposium, decide who among you is the most capable in every regard, then the rest of you, drop your candidacy and support that person. This is the test of your patriotism, your decency, your humanity.
2
Thank you. Regarding Venezuela, Democrats can leverage the Venezuelan crowd who is so disappointed about Trump inaction. For many Venezuelan-Americans, this is Bay of Pigs, part II. Yes. Work harder. And, now.
3
Why do Dems need such advice re Florida and midwest rural states- laziness shown to be their systemic, historical problem?
Inability to coordinate.
Hillary did not visit Wisconsin but Dems were hot to try to grab Georgia and Arizona.
Catastrophic Result: a Grifter, Fascistic-leaning Pres, and a Supreme Court that causes misery for the next 30 years.
Not to mention how they never take care of business at state and local levels, so even if they return to the WH they can YET AGAIN LOSE SENATE.
2
Black and Latino Florida voters should be reminded of how much concern and compassion Trumpublicans showed for the black and Latino citizens of Puerto Rico in the wake of the damage caused by Hurricane Maria, i.e. zero. Democrats would do well to focus on the message Trumpublicans were sending by their inaction.
2
A Latino voting for Trump is like Alabama voting for Abraham Lincoln.
1
Everyone knows Republicans focus on Florida because Florida is where you go to steal an election. The electoral system in Florida is worse than a banana republic.
4
In my observations of how Floridians cast their votes, there have been the snowbirds from the northeast corridor who retired and became full-time residents, and they were mostly Democrats.
But for years since the Mariel boatlift, refugees fleeing Castro's communist regime were attracted to the Republican message of "freedom vs. communist oppression." I saw this with a lot of Chinese immigrants in Orange County, California, who fled that communist regime's oppression.
Despite the endless falsehoods, the Republicans have had a great PR/propaganda machine comparing the liberalism of Democrats with the communism they left behind.
However, the children and grandchildren of those Cuban nationals are not so easily duped by such nonsense. And you could see it in the vast whiteness of Trump's rally the other night. There was also a contingent of white supremacists, many of whom brandishing their swastika tattoos and other images of white nationalism. These rally participants are in no mood for inclusion of brown and black people. Little wonder the RNC works tirelessly to make it more difficult for people of color to vote.
So I will be very interested in seeing how the children and grandchildren of those early Cuban refugees view today's Republican swings toward white nationalism.
As one contributor to this discussion noted, Republican operatives are better at the ground game than the Democrats, who think they can use media to replace shoe leather. That will have to change.
3
Speaking very generally
1. Hispanics have low voter turnout
2. Hispanics are more religious and will prioritize a candidate's position on abortion
3. Former felons that have their voting rights restored are not automatically going to vote Democrat
The fact that anyone needs to “work a lot harder” to win a state back from Trump only tells us how desolately ignorant and morally vacuous that state is.
3
They won't win Florida or the election at all if they mention the word, "reparations"
4
"And by the way, here's my address for your contributions..."
Every good Democrat knows that the only real campaign issue is Reparations.
1
Snowbird to Florida with a resident hubby . We purchased a home in an area taken over essentially during the height of the 1920’s/30’s by white industrialists and politicians .
Street names like “Sudan St. and Liberia St. “still exist alongside names like “ New Britain Avenue. And Hartford Street. Probably a tip to New Britain Ct. the industrial city that gave us Stanley Works.
These rouges came south and destroyed the black communities that grew out of antebellum time. Bethune Cookman University was at one time a very prestige’s black college. The black community had sound and successful educational systems in place post slavery until the resurgence of racist and corporate carpetbaggers taking aim at the success of the first freed slaves.
I see what that time in history has wrought on central Florida. As a northerner , able to compare environments and tie in historical content.
My hubby volunteered for the Florida Democrats. We saw first hand how intimidating it is for Florida Democrats and anyone not living racist values and loving cult demagogue trump. After a few weeks of this environment ;since trump took office I fly home to Ct. for some fresh perspective.
Every sign for Andrew Gillum went missing where we snowbird in the Daytona / Ormond Beach / Holly Hill Florida area. Racism is prevalent and intrenched in gear head / biker land Florida. I was initially appalled !now I am horrified that it will continue with Biden enabling racism and giving it permission !
1
I have a vacation home in Sarasota and travel over to Orlando on I-4 on a regular basis. Trust me on this one......Trump OWNS Florida.
7
@Heartland Harry I live in Sarasota County and although Trump remains popular here, he hardly owns FL. The State is trending purple and depending on who the Dems nominate, Trump very well could lose FL.
5
Do NOT donate your money to any Democratic candidate; instead donate to these grassroots organisations that get people to the polls. Democrats need to stop wasting money on advertising and whatever else Hillary Clinton did to lose. We need to get on the ground and get people out to vote and that's it. That's how black women got a democrat elected in Alabama. We could have easily won in 2016 if efforts like these were focused on the ground game.
4
Everything this opinion writer had to say was a very good idea, and voter registration drives should start right now, but I would take exception to the undertone of the piece that Democrats should be rooting for undocumented workers in our economy.
Democrats should not give Trump his one advantage, which is that he bleats to everyone that he is forcing the undocumented out of the U.S. (but which is not really true compared to the Democrats). Obama deported just as much as Trump and Dems should say that we will uphold the law and deport those workers who are working without authorization.
There are too many fed up voters who see the Dems as proponents of open borders and anarchic labor markets where employers make it their policy to ONLY hire undocumenteds so they can be exploited, which is not true, so they need to reinforce the message - We will enforce the laws of the United States - that will take away Trump's only playing card.
2
Ms. Mercado has handed Democrats a playbook for winning in 2020. Not just the Presidency, but in down ballot races as well.
As she so cogently states, politics is all about blocking and tackling. Which in this case means organizing, 365 days a year, not just for election day.
I'm reminded of reports in this paper that Rick Scott defeated former Democratic Senator Bill Nelson because he made a point of religiously attending local Hispanic celebrations and events all around the state, year round. He SHOWED UP. Sure, that was part of a sitting Governor's job, to stay in touch with constituents. But Bill Nelson, the the sitting Senator, didn't do it. Between his laziness and the usual Republican dirty election tricks he lost by the thin margin of 10,000 votes.
If the Dems want to win they need to do the work, every day, no matter how boring or unsexy it gets. The donors also need to support such work at the grass roots level rather than just write checks and party with their favorite glamorous Presidential candidate.
4
Why are the Democrats so much worse than Republicans at getting their message out there? Democratic candidates have policies that will actually help working people. Republican policies favor the rich, yet they somehow have convinced the middle class and poor that they're on their side. I do fear that if Democrats fail to learn from their mistakes of the past, they will hand Trump another victory. Why isn't the Democratic Party taking this more seriously? I really don't understand.
3
@Dee S "Democrats in Florida desperately need a bold, progressive agenda and to build the kind of relationships that can’t be forged overnight. That’s starting to happen — by an independent multiracial movement redefining politics in the state."
Stick this jewel 6 paragraphs in to any Dem candidates stump speech. Then, watch the crowd disperse, like vape on a windy day.
1
But sanctions and tariffs on Venezuela and Cuba are not necessarily the correct policies for a Democratic administration to pursue, even if they are popular with Latino voters in Florida. Surely more humane policies on immigration would be appealing, or do recent and not so recent Florida immigrants want to kick away the ladder?
Would the NY Times ever publish an opinion piece "Republicans can win Florida in 2020"? This seems like a biased news paper.
2
It will be a tough win for Democrats, but maybe they'll get traction on climate change issues, since Floridians are finally realizing that their state is particularly vulnerable to its effects.
Red tides and green lakes, more intense hurricanes, water bubbling up under Miami streets. Invasive species and microbes: Zika virus, anybody?
If your state' leadership doesn't even allow the phrase "climate change" to be used in documents, maybe you've been voting for the wrong party.
3
I just hope Tom Perez or someone close to him takes the counsel given here to heart and implements its suggestions. Democrats, cocky and confident because they think voters who detest Trump will carry the State for them, better organize neighborhoods, register voters, raise money and organize and promote an agenda that has appeal to people across demographic cohorts. There is no other way to win elections, and Florida is the key to getting rid of the fungus that permeates the White House.
3
As a resident of Miami, I completely agree with this op-ed. It cannot be assumed, however, that an "electric"rally (description provided by Trump choir boy Representative Matt Goetz) like Trump's this week would garner the same energy in Florida with any of the future Democatic candidates at this point in time at a hypothetical mass rally. It was clear to see Trump's same energized and loyal supporters last night in Orlando and to witness his even more devoted ones last month in the Panhandle. He definitely has the jump on the Dems after 60 rallies since his presidency and millions of dollars in his coffers. By the time the Dems finally get their candidates out there Trump will already have ramped up his propaganda machine in rallies around the country like last night's in Florida.
As the author points out, organized grass root efforts are vital and hopefully will be amplified to grow our base in such traditionally and heavily populated Democratic leaning counties like Miami Dade, Broward and Brevard.
One comment: the well-mapped out strategies expressed in this article will gratefully be received by Team Trump as welcome "opposition research." They won't even have to seek out information like this to analyze and plan their own campaign strategies coupled with their already developed sophisticated data operations. Sometimes less in-depth information is best at this crucial planning stage of the campaign. Thank you forl your efforts and organization. Where do I sign up?
4
There's a note at the end of the story with a form to request email updates. I signed up right away. Please do, fellow Miamian!
I volunteered for Obama on election day 2008. At polling places in minority neighborhoods, we had attorneys stationed very visibly, and the message was "If you are legally entitled to vote, we'll make sure you get to vote for the candidate of your choice." We need that strong effort again. Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties went solidly for Clinton in 2016, but who knows how many people stayed away from the polls, cowed by Republican intimidation tactics? This is too important to be left to chance.
2
Actually Democrats cannot win Florida. Many of the voters in Florida are refugees from Democratic states destroyed by high taxes and crushing regulation. People moved to Florida for freedom and they will not place themselves in chains by voting for a Democrat. Bankrupt, burdensome regimes are only a plane ride away to NY, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey or Connecticut for those who yearn for confiscatory taxation and to be told how to live their life.
14
@Toni
I can't answer the original question, but in my half year life in Florida I find the dislike of cold and snow matters more.
At the same time it makes me mad when the northern refugees you speak of want those former states to pony up to repair their hurricane damage at the same time Florida refuses to collect a state income tax, and uses that no-tax status to attract more northern tax avoiding refugees and businesses.
51
Isn’t the Trump massive tax cuts/major deficit increases going to be confiscatory and freedom taking?
16
I’m always confused when people cite some of our most successful states that offer a higher availability of educational, medical and other commonwealth services, commensurately higher levels of per capita income, and better across-the-board metrics in most measurable quality-of-life issues as failures to be fled. They are more likely to confront community problems with intelligent, informed solutions to level imbalances that occur as a result of their dynamism. I find most of these solutions are more effectively met by a commonwealth response rather than a privatized, for profit one. Which may mean a slightly higher tax rate but with substantially fewer user fees and incidental costs that result from unintended consequences that are otherwise borne individually.
17
Aren't Cuban Hispanics different from Puerto Rican Hispanics? Aren't many from PR in Florida because of Trump's neglect of PR after the hurricane? Won 't these two groups of Hispanics respond in different ways?
50
Thankfully, the old conservative Cubans who hate the Democrats because of JFK, are dying out! Our generation of Cuban-Americans born or raised in the U.S. trend liberal.
8
Trump is stuck in the polls at a level where no president has won reelection. His personal negatives are holding him back despite a good economy. This is because he offends the American values of courteousness and politeness. Outside of his core, he is viewed a rude and ugly person, a lousy retail politician - ironically much, much worse than Hillary Clinton.
Sure the Democrats need to up their efforts in Florida, that always helps, but I think Trump cannot reverse his personal popularity and he's doomed in 2020.
42
@John L If this is the assumption made by the Democratic Party, Trump will win 2020 by a landslide.
4
@Dee S
Funny. Trump didn't win by a landslide last time. In fact, he lost the popular vote by a significant margin.
3
@Dee S Okay Dee S, I'm listening, but when you offer an opinion it's usual for one to offer reasons for one's opinion.
1
If every registered Democrat in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties turned out to vote, they could swing every election. They are frequently absent on election day.
68
@Thomas
Bet that nationwide mass deportation of illegal immigrants mysteriously skips Florida and especially MarALago.
3
If the Democrats need to count on Florida to win the White House, they have lost. With Republicans in charge, there is no way that there won't be some "hanging chad" or poorly designed ballot or disenfranchisement of millions of voters. Florida is a happy to have red tides, green putrid lakes, hurricanes, keeping kids in cages, a corrupt government, as long as they have low taxes.
49
And yet Fla voted for Obama not once but twice! It is possible for Fla to vote blue in the general election again...
8
All the “hanging chads” have been in Democratic counties, where the ballots are made by Democratic officials.
@Tandra Ericson
And Dem watchdogs should be checking on the manufacturer of Florida's voting machines....
Ivanka Trump got a patent for a "voting machine" from the Chinese government in Nov, 2018.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-usa-ivanka-idUSKCN1NB0TL
Now how in the world could anything go wrong with a Trump manufactured/programmed voting machine?
Why didnt they hold the Senate seat of Bill Nelson and lose the Governorship? Where was the big money then? What is wrong with this story?
I have a lot of hope for Florida in 2020
A Democrat will beat Trump hands down!
As a matter of fact, a Democrat will beat Trump easily in the U.S. and we will see a headline one day that says, "Trump, You're Fired."
4
Where is the reference to former Mayor Gillum's registration initiative, that partially funds Ms. Mercado? The only way the registration goals will be achieved is if all the entities work together. Ego, Ms. Mercado?
1
Don’t bother. Florida is and always will be a disappointment in every sense.
1
Of course you can scare people into engagement. Thats the whole republican play book.
1
Where is the wealthy benefactor who will pay all the costs ex-felons have been saddled with by Florida’s Republicans before they can vote?
3
Democrats can/would win anywhere if all eligible woukd vote.
1
Advise for Democrats in Florida: Don't bring up the whole reparation thing. Seriously flawed idea. Matter of fact, call you congressperson about it. It's bad.
3
Due to the treatment of minorities in cities by Democrat politicians, I find it unlikely they will get to excited about Democrats treating them that way in Florida and elsewhere.. Voters that appreciate segregated schools and housing, like in Democrat cities, might be excited. But the rest know that the Democrats protect housing values and the middle class, not them.
Another lesson in the success of grassroots voter development. Come on Democrats. Reach out with real connections...not just rhetoric. Make your platforms relevant and actionable for all the constituencies you claim to represent and bring our government safely back to the people. We won’t survive 4 more years of Republican self interest.
41
@Christine Davi
Agree—I loathe the GOP, and have always sincerely wanted to register as a Democrat, HOWEVER, over the course of my now-long life, the Democratic Party has come across to me as hollow and wishy-washy. There is no “there” there! Hmmm...sounds like Yogi Berra!
Unlike, for example, Beto O'Rourke, Andrew Gillum is not running for office and instead has completely dedicated himself precisely to the goal of winning Florida by voter registration and turnout. This is without a doubt the very best contribution that he personally could make, now, to saving this country, and he is doing it. This article mentions his name twice but never once mentions his current effort or his organization, Forward Florida. I don't understand that at all. Why did the writer of this article not mention that? ??
10
Florida is not a red state, except through gerrymandering and voter suppression. The closeness of our elections are infamous.
4
Florida encapsulates America, and that means it is half rational and exceptional, and half utterly insane. I hope the Dems just do what President Obama did, appeal to the good, and leave the low road to Trump.
I wonder if I slight Texas when I say Florida is the most insane state, electorally speaking. I bet if the Republicans ran Louis Gohmert for President, he would win Florida and Texas.
Maybe a tie.
Hugh
3
The DFL is largely a moderate to conservative party that believes most of what the GOP believes. It's not surprising that their efforts are lackluster since they really don't want to be liberals and help the people. They are willing to give up very small and incremental victories to the people when the GOP has one of it's bust moments and when popular sentiment is high for increased programs for people, but they always hope to stem the tide of true progressive policies. They work for the same people the GOP does. The registered rank and file (bless their little hearts) are easily controlled and duped every time. They constantly put forward candidates and policies that assume a great bit of correctness of the GOP platform.
So, why would they try in Florida? They might win and then eventually expose themselves as the frauds that they are. Fake liberals hoping to minimize the backlash from GOP policy damage to the nation.
1
"Democrats in Florida desperately need a bold, progressive agenda and to build the kind of relationships that can’t be forged overnight. That’s starting to happen — by an independent multiracial movement redefining politics in the state."
This is the kind of gobble-d-gook that makes "Make America Great Again" sell so easily.
2
Thank you, Ms. Moncado, for saying all of these truths. The Florida Democratic Party is still struggling to emerge from under the organizational control of remnant "moderate" white Democrats, the sorts of people who provided the uninspiring candidates before Andrew Gillum. The race of these Democrats matters, because, although they're too moderate by current standards to want to be Republicans, they're both pretty conservative by Democratic standards, and simply not used to reaching out to non-whites. Their default strategy has tended to be to try to reach out to white voters in the Florida panhandle. I don't think that they mean to be racists, but they don't seem to be able to cast off all of the old, bad thought patterns. Let's hope that people like Ms. Mercado can energize the voters of every race (including whites) who stand to gain when Democrats win elections in Florida.
6
Excellent reminder, that a democracy is not a passive sport; and that voting is a right gained with sweat and blood, not to be wasted on Trumpian demagogues, with empty promises and a policy of instilling hate, fear and division. If the democrats have the will to win, there is a good chance if it starts at the community level, however arduous and dedicated it needs to be. The current status quo is not sustainable, given the persistent inequality in a capitalistic system that forgot to exercise some restraint...based on ethics (with it's corollary, selfishness and avarice).
6
I think it is safe to say to say that if the Democrats need Florida to win, they are in deep trouble. The good news is that it is not likely to be pivotal and the enormous expense of blanketing such a large state would give any reasonable strategist pause.
In Florida's 2018 election, the Democrats lost to an unimpressive candidate in an open race for the governor's mansion and lost a U. S. Senate seat with a Democratic incumbent running. Losing a game at a neutral stadium and then a home game is not an indication one is about to win a road game.
By all means, it is worth local effort to win and that effort should be well spent. The national focus, however, should be on easier-to-win and cheaper-to-campaign-in states that would be sufficient to reach 270 and/or have U. S. Senate races in 2020. Pennsylvania, Michigan & Wisconsin are the obvious battlegrounds. Beyond that, it may be easier to win any of North Carolina, Arizona or the combination of Maine 2nd & Nebraska 2nd than it would be to win Florida. Just putting Governor Bullock on the ticket may be enough to win Montana. There is even a chance Iowa is in play. I would prioritize all of these ahead of Florida, and I hope the general election coverage does the same.
3
@Alan: Florida has 29 electoral votes. Pennsylvania has 20, Michigan 16, and Wisconsin 10. So Florida has more electoral votes than Pennsylvania and more than Michigan and Wisconsin combined. It also has many electoral votes as North Carolina, Arizona, and Montana combined. If Democratic candidates have come so close in Florida without the full support of the Democratic party then it's worth trying to flip Florida with an aggressive campaign. And once Florida is flipped it may well stay that way for many elections to come.
3
Florida is winnable.
Incumbent Senator Bill Nelson, a lackluster (to put it politely) career politician with no legislative achievements and a pathetic campaign that spent months and millions of ad dollars talking about his days as an astronaut before many voters were born, came within about 7,000 votes of beating the high-profile Republican governor, who ran a smart, very well-funded campaign.
The FL Democratic party wrote off my ruby-red country, leaving it to the local folks to raise money and get out the vote for Nelson and other Democratic candidates. Our efforts were energetic, but we could not match the well-funded, professional operation of the Republicans.
The FL Democratic Party must recognize that to defeat Trump in Florida, every single vote counts. If they write of whole counties because they are "red", then they are throwing away thousands of votes that could well make the difference, as the 2016 Senate race showed. Whether they will wise up remains to be seen.
9
@Richard Correction, the 2018 Senate race.
One thing that the article does not mention is that, in order to carry Florida, the democrats would need to win massive majorities in Broward and Palm Beach counties. Without those two counties, the state would be a solidly red state. A 60% showing in Broward and Palm Beach would not be enough to offset the republican vote elsewhere in the state; they need 75% or more. That means that they need to secure almost all of the votes of the Jewish retirees who live in those counties and that can only be done if the party's candidate thoroughly repudiates BDS. As a resident of Palm Beach County, I for one will predict that if the democrats to not do that, they will still win a majority in my county but it will not be massive enough and Florida's electoral votes will go for Mr. Trump.
I have to be honest. I am mighty tired of having to spoon feed half the population. Rather than working to "turn out" these people why don't we invest some time in explaining to them their OBLIGATION as a citizen of the United States.
We are all in this together and people need to pony up their share. I have no tolerance any longer for people who can't be bothered to vote. I have a young relative who is attending school in Paris. Somehow she manages never to miss and election. If she can do it, so can they.
We should make it mandatory and fine people who do not do so.
Enough already. The entitlement is blinding.
11
I live in Florida in a large community that is loaded with people ages 65 and above, and there's even a city to the south of us where the demographics are older.
So you'd think that Trump's gigantic cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid in his new budget would be major news, not just on national media but especially on Florida media. Yet they aren't.
I'll be that if 100 older residents in my area on the west coast of Florida were asked about Trump and his views and actions on these programs that keep them fed, housed and alive, 90 of them wouldn't have any clue that he's trying to slash the programs that, such as the are, are essential to their lives and wellbeing.
It's as if Trump's budget was announced, and then forgotten about and never covered thereafter. If Democrats want to win Florida in 2020, it should be all they're talking about, every single day, especially to flag-waving, Fox-watching elderly people who turn out to vote every chance they get - for Republicans.
12
@Porter
I agree that Democrats must do much more to make seniors aware of what they will lose if Republicans continue to run Florida and our nation. However, do not discount the fact that many of us Florida retirees come from the Northeast and vote Democratic. There are Indivisible groups and local Democratic committees all over Southwest Florida.
We need to do a much better job of educating people as you stated and we need resources from the national Democratic party.
8
@love of country Yes, there's a lot of Indivisible activity but if you look back at 2016, the DNC was and continues to be pretty useless in supporting Democratic candidates here in Florida and especially in fighting back against the GOP assault on the elderly and the infirm, of which we have a huge number in our state.
I've come across many such voters in my dozen years in a traditionally "safe" district on the west coast of Florida and most of them seem to love Trump and Fox as well. You can be sure that they turn out religiously for every single election. When a charismatic Democratic does manage to win something, it's a major upset and tends to last for just one term, unfortunately.
2
I figured out not too long ago that the major Democratic players are ok with Trump being re-elected. They have benefitted from his term, as they have become celebrities by arguing against him. Most or all of them are wealthy people who have done well by Trump's tax policies. Trump will only be defeated by massive popular will, and that will only happen if people are so desperate about health care and/or climate change that they will just vote against him.
3
I am Anti-trump to my very bones but I can relate to those completely disenchanted withy the hubris of the Democratic Party. The attitude that all decent people vote their way. The identity politics and continual fascination with gender issues detracts the attention of voters away from many real problems facing the country. Democratic candidates are often just as firmly in the pocket of special interests as the GOP. (Check out “open secrets” web page.). They just dress their message with identity politics and gender issues and hope we don’t notice.
As the author says, independent progressive groups have to do the work we expected the Democratic Party to do. In Florida, and probably everywhere. It’s a pity, but let’s get on it!
10
This is a great article. Hopefully, someone in the Democratic Party will reach out to the writer or the writer will make her voice heard within the Party powers.
One reason HRC lost in 2016 is that, from what I have read, is that her campaign relied far too heavily on their computer models which showed she was way ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And, when Bill tried to tell her and her team she need to campaign there, they shunted him aside. Losing only by 77,000 votes is the story-a story that easily could have swung the other way, in spite of Comey and the Russians. In politics, is still is about the ground game and the gut instinct.
Elizabeth Warren is rising in the polls b/c she gets the ground game. She is well organized, efficient. Having attended one of her town halls in New Hampshire, she had campaign staff all over the crowd: meeting every attendee (about 500 people to an overflow crowd), every name was taken, including email and phone numbers), follow up has happened. Contrasted with a smaller event for Biden, where no one from his campaign greeted attendees, took names or any information. A lost opportunity for him.
We are in a battle. If the Democrats do not win in 2020, we this nation as we know it will be irreparably damaged.
9
I live in South Florida and I am an active precinct leader for a small black and latino neighborhood. We've been targeting low propensity voters for years (we call them warm voters). I've walked door to door with Spanish speaking friends at least 15 times in the last election. We doubled the turnout in that precinct in the 2018 election. The author apparently has not spoken to the head of the Florida democratic party, Terrie Rizzo, or she would know that this is being done throughout the state.
22
@naidipuz. Thank you sincerely for your efforts. Great job, keep it up!
9
"Democrats in Florida desperately need a bold, progressive agenda and to build the kind of relationships that can’t be forged overnight."
And not just in Florida.
4
I only wish the DNC would join the 21st century before Republicans re-enact the 19th.
Hillary Clinton, now Joe Biden. Threatening anyone who appears in an unsanctioned debate. Fighting grassroots primary challengers. Underfunding Doug Jones’s campaign and under recognizing the crucial role in his victory that belongs to black women.
Democrats spend too much money on television and too little on the streets. Television is a Republican game, where lies and labels work. Canvassers can do what Bernie Sanders does: counter “socialism” with policies. Many people who don’t like socialism like progressive policies.
7
Andrea C. Mercado's organization warns that the democrats might lose Florida.
It occurs to me that the "Dems" will lose Florida and most other states if they continue to fight among themselves about "issues" like reparations.
They are already beating up on their leading candidate,Joe Biden because of what he said about the "old days"
What he said is not the end of the world if you have some perspective.
Joe Biden has an excellent record on civil rights but is already taking a beating over some slight political incorrectness.
Some of the black candidates have strong feelings about reparations and the other candidates are afraid to touch that issue.
We are early in the campaign and there is already division on the democrat side.
The republicans offer us an inferior candidate for president with followers who don't disagree among themselves.
They are simple but they are united.
Be careful Democrats. of your strong feelings about some controversial issues which cause division.
You are facing, a less informed Republican party marching in lockstep behind a dangerous candidate who can easily become the winner.
This would not be the first time in history when unthinking followers placed a dangerous candidate into power.
Democrats. if you want to win the upcoming election, you must become UNITED ! Your problem--you aren't built that way.
Because of that, Donald Trump has a pretty good chance of winning again because history has a pretty good chance of repeating itself.
9
"The president made his familiar, divisive pitch at his campaign rally this week."
I wonder if it has dawned on some true-believing Democrats that their obsession with identity politics and political purity is the other side of the exact same coin as Donald Trump's race-baiting, and EVERY BIT AS DIVISIVE. A long look in the mirror would help members of the Democratic Party to understand that the endless stirring of the pot of grievances will work against them, as well as against the interests of ALL Americans, including the "victims" themselves who would benefit from a fair-minded body politic that respects all of its members as individuals, instead of demonizing certain among them (e.g. white males) group by group.
Florida (my other home) is a bit of a bell-weather, far more diverse politically than states like New York, Massachusetts, or Maryland. The problem in each of those places is an insular echo chamber, where the powers that be simply reinforce their own biases while ignoring how most people across the country actually feel, and letting the loud left bully the average person into silence by calling them racist, sexist, or whatever.
If the Democratic party can get over identity politics as an organizing principle and get back to promoting the welfare of all, they have a chance in Florida. Otherwise not, as they push everyone other than white liberals and black activists into the arms of the Republican party.
5
I hope some of the Dem candidates are reading your column and taking note. I worry about the timidity of some of the candidates--they need strong voices and clear messages and to reach voters who will matter instead of trying to covert Trump's base, which is futile and a waste of time.
3
I thought for sure that Andrew Gillum would be Florida's next governor. The energy, momentum, and signs were everywhere. Even Trump's boy, DeSantis, on the morning of the election, thought that he would lose to Gillum.
But, once again, by hook or crook, the vote came through for the Republicans in Florida.
Talking to people after the election, I could see that Gillum scared them. Not just his blackness (though that was there), but they thought he was too "socialist" and would take away their money.
It looks to me like Democrats need to tone their message to reach these people. Centrists. Speak of the common good and economic growth in the same sentence.
5
I do not understand how people can keep calling Florida a swing state. Unfortunately, it has shown itself to be a reliable red state consistently voting Republican regardless of the quality of its candidates. Current Governor a case in point.
6
Two wins for Obama might create pause there. Also election numbers.
2
@CRL The DNC really, really dropped the ball here. I was seeing attack ads against Bill Nelson a year before the election and they went the whole 12 months. The Florida DNC didn't even buy any ad time until something like 2months before the election. Bill Nelson had been our Senator for like 2 decades and he had far worse name recognition than Scott. Like the article says, the Dems stupidly think that the Hispanic population here makes them a shoe-in. As a result, they just don't spend anywhere near as much money as they need to.
Also, if it wasn't for snowbirds, a bunch of rich retirees who appear right before elections are usually held, FL would be a lot more reliably blue.
Florida voted for Obama twice.
1
Thank you for this timely and provocative opinion piece. What I walk away with is the understanding that communities of color care about the same issues white voters care about; quality and affordable health care, investments in education, good jobs with benefits, affordable child care, lower cost prescription drugs, trade policies that put working people interests first, and yes, a comprehensive reform to our broken immigration laws.
What the Dems need to do is speak to communities of color about those issues year round in the languages that people speak and by people that look like them. If you want people to vote, you have to tell them why and not focus on Trump so much. The GOP will motivate their base with fear and resentment. The Dems need to motivate their base with solutions and positive messages that builds a big tent. It is more complicated but it is worth it.
8
Health Care, Housing, Food Security, and strengthening Public Education. These are the top 4 issues uniting my multiracial and multicultural neighbors. We have repeatedly been thrown under the bus by the Republicans in Tallahassee and D.C. on these "kitchen table" problems. Throw in our lagging transportation infrastructure, and you have a winning strategy. We need leaders to articulate a bold vision backed up with a reasonable plan of logistics. I am a older white Anglo-American who has been living in Little Haiti the past 17 years. These issues are not about race or national origin. They are about American Values and building strong neighborhoods.
7
"Florida’s voters will be watching."
I wonder.
I've been a Floridian for four years, but I don't know anything about how my neighbors make their political decisions. And I don't feel comfortable asking: It's just not something you bring up in casual conversation.
No doubt many factors are involved, but who knows what they are and how strong they are. And, of course, they can change, but do they?
Who can confidently answer such questions? Interviewees famously lie in pollster interviewing: "Are you voting Trump?" "What! Of course not." And they go on to vote Trump.
Nonetheless, we humans are often very persuadable. The Bandwagon Effect, I think, is effective: Hey, everybody's voting for Whoever! Wanting to belong in the In Crowd still works.
Rational arguments can sway some people, they say. I wonder about that, too. Have you done it?
Tradition and momentum are players in the game, too: "Dad was a Republican, and so am I." End of story usually. Or so I think.
In the main, if I had to guess, politics is not a big subject down here. It may come up at the dinner table around voting time, but after that it's like last year's Super Bowl game: uninteresting. "It just doesn't affect me that much. Voting is a civic duty, not a life-or-death activity."
And this Floridian, with his all-Republican representatives, feels it doesn't matter much anyway: A guy I don't like wins, and he never listens to me after that. I'm just wasting my time to call or email him. Bah! Politics.
1
@Jim Muncy, I've been here for 4 years too, but I am involved with the League of Women Voters because I would like a better education system for FL as well as healthcare for the children here. I feel I can not just sit by and not try to have the next generation have a better life than me. So it doesn't have to be party, you can just work on issues.
6
I’ve been here 50 years, married to a native Floridian. I don’t know what you are talking about.
@Calleendeoliveira
Good for you. If we do nothing, nothing will change.
I would love to see a Blue Florida from sea to shining sea.
What an encouraging hopeful article! Thank you for your efforts in the voter trenches. You have shown that consistent effort, a focus on issues and on the needs of real voters can rejuvenate turn out and awareness. Numbers only respond when we real people are put center stage.
7
Democratic outreach lagged in 2018 partly because the party was slow to embrace Mr. Gillum and his bold platform after he upset the establishment in the primaries. And the party wrongly assumed Mr. Trump’s repugnant anti-immigrant policies and rhetoric would do the work for it. But fear does not mobilize voters of color; you cannot scare people into engagement. #FloridaGrassrootsDemocrats have for too long been treated badly by the corporate-wing of the Democratic Party, which holds the purse strings, recruits Republicans to run as Democrats and blesses them with #DCCC endorsements over more progressive candidates. That spells low-turnout voting every time! I supported Senator Sanders in 2016 and was greeted by the most mean-spirited pro-Hillary women I have ever met in my life! The Democratic Party needs to learn from 2016. Stop presenting the most disliked warhawk, corporate candidates. For instance, former Republican Patrick Murphy (who gave the max personal donation to Romney in 2012) was recruited to run against (R) Senator Marco Rubio. Simple: The Republicans voted for Rubio, and he won 52 to 44. But the Florida Democrats wanted to be sure a progressive didn't run and win! The party in Florida must move LEFT or keep losing.
3
The idea that changing demographics will favor Democrats is not only wrong, it’s a central part of the Democrats’ problem. The country may be starkly divided politically, but both parties cling to 1 narrative, and it is a narrative written by the Right for its benefit.
The narrative says that the country is divided into identity groups whose interests are in conflict. Immigrants and Muslims are your enemy, and the Democrats are for them & against you. Rather than challenge this lie, the Democrats offer their own version of it: We must stand up for immigrants and Muslims because they’re the victims of Republican bigotry. The preferred victim group may change, but politically it will work the same whether white people make up 60% of the population or 20%.
No matter how demographics change, Democrats will remain those who help “other” people and not you. The way to challenge Republicans, in the long run, is not to cobble together a bigger shopping list of policies, each written to for a particular group, but to create a more honest narrative, which will reflect the fact that for 99% of issues, the interests of 99% of the people, from gay people & people of color to white midwestern farmers & unemployed industrial workers, are the same.
6
Democrats can win more than Florida if they get their act together. James Stimson, a political scientist who has studied polls on American attitudes over the past 68 years, says there has been a steady leftward shift since 1952. And a research group called the Policy Agendas Project agrees that most of us are more tolerant of same-sex marriage, more concerned about climate change and more welcoming of asylum seekers and immigrants. That makes the Trump-GOP agenda outdated and askew of the American majority. The secret is to make it vote.
7
We hear Dem establishment leaders, pundits, and candidates constantly telling us we need to appeal to the suburban republican female voter.
This is a wild goose chase. As Harry Truman once said, "if you give the voters a choice between a Republican and a republican, they'll choose the Republican every time"
The failed Clinton plan of being a 'kinder, gentler Republican' cannot work in the environment we find ourselves in now.
Half the eligible voting population does not vote. Could it be that is because they see no significant difference between the parties, after the party elites deliberately blur the line between them?
Time to change that and this essay points the way. Mobilizing the non voter by offering something that will change their lives and give them a reason to vote.
6
I think it would be a mistake for Democrats to just focus on the Latino vote in Florida. There are plenty of interstate transplants from the north east, white voters who have voted for both parties in their lifetimes. They might have voted for Trump but aren’t crazy about him. I know because I live and work in that kind of community, and I have dozens of relatives in that bucket. They are retirees, small business owners and ex-military but they are not rusted on conservatives. They are the reason the state swings. Democrats need to appeal to them if they want to win.
15
Hard to see how Trump loses Florida. His tax cuts benefited Floridians who heretofore had no state income tax to deduct on Schedule A. Many Florida residents are also people who escaped tax purgatories like New York, New Jersey, and a Connecticut. Cuban Americans didn’t support Obama’s efforts in Cuba either, seeing them as rewards for a dictatorial regime from which they’d fled.
Democrats would favor reversing the policies that have helped Floridans. Sensible voters won’t change trains now.
3
@Once From Rome Some people, and this may be a revelation to Republicans, actually vote for reasons other than their own pocketbook. And whatever economic benefits the tax cuts offer to middle-class Floridians were offset by the disastrous tRump Tariffs and interest on the exploding federal deficit.
6
@William Park, exactly William I'd pay more taxes here if they'd educate/insurance the children here. They are ranked 48th for education just a shame.
4
Florida ranks 40th in GDP per capita. It ranks below New Mexico. NY and CT rank in the top 10. Really gives the lie to the libertarian tax meme.
1
The most crucial decision for Dems was electing Tom Perez to head the DNC. What a disaster he had been in that role. Turnout is the single defining electoral element for Dems - so where is the ongoing massive voter registration effort,Tom? It's not-existent. It should have started the day after inauguration during the massive marches and never stopped. Instead, almost THREE YEARS after the last presidential election it still has not begun in earnest....
28
@GM
I'm not defending him, because I really don't understand Perez. But I do know that registering people 3 years before an election won't work. People can't keep their attention focused that long. They will promise faithfully to vote but when the day comes they will have something more important to do like go to Starbucks or wash their hair or walk the dog...
It needs to be done in the last year, perhaps even the last 6 months. Anything up to that point is a wasted effort. People won't retain it. it won't be important to them any longer. You'll have wasted man hours and money on a result that gives you nothing.
1
The thing thing many don't get, if politicians stopped lying, and acted more like her, things would be different. But, is amazing how people willingly buy the same old same old, from every politician, and the ultimate difference they afford? Nothing, or a microscopic change in the same old.
Omer other thing; I know people who dislike her - having never watched her - and the reason they give? She's 'mean'. She's got manners, and enough babying, cuddling grownups!
@U.N. Owen- I don't have a clue who you're talking about. Who is "her"?
The Democratic party continually solicits me to “chip in” and/or make a monthly contribution. But why should I, when articles such as this show a disorganized mess in a totally in-play Florida, where Trump won by a mere 1.5% of the vote.
Does Tom Perez have any idea of what is required here in terms of boots-on-the ground efforts needed in Florida? How much money is being earmarked for Florida? How much is needed? Who is in charge of Florida campaign efforts there?
It galls me to see TV ads and literally billion-dollar campaigns
instead of armies of doorbell-ringing paid volunteers getting out the vote in Florida, MI, WS, Ohio . 2018 was both a harbinger of Democratic success and a warning of another disaster in 2020.
Democratic candidates ought to stop throwing shade on Joe Biden as some kind of racist because he had a civil relationship with opponents who held views he despised —and stress a unified effort to get out the vote-which is all they need to do —as well their only chance to lose if they don’t.
14
I was on the ground for Andrew Gillum in Florida and the Democrats made a total mess of his campaign. After he won it took them 45 days to get their acts together enough to start his campaign, losing momentum and wasting valuable time. They hired a bunch of kids to work on the ground who supposedly had training but I could have made a persuasive case for them knowing nothing. We didn't have Gillum materials for weeks, there was a war in our county about who was actually in charge, and there's so much more. The writer is optimistic but she's also skewing the facts, only one Democrat in our county won which was not a victory it was a gerrymandered, voter suppressed joke. Florida is a red state despite what news reports say. The chances of that changing are not good.
7
Lifelong Floridian here - Latinos in the state have historically let down the Democrats whether there’s outreach or not. Focus on New voters from P Rico and on getting out the African American and youth vote. If a Latino voter cannot just look at the Trump record or what’s he’s said on many subjects and be motivated to vote then nothing is going to motivate him/her. So just move on and focus on our voters who will turn out with a bit of work - African American women, younger people and white pro choice moms.
45
Excellent. As a FL voter, go get 'em. And Dem candidates -- listen up.
FL has every reason to vote democratic. The effects of climate change hit Miami regularly. FL is racially mixed, and we need to improve race relations, not alienate minorities. FL has an enviable environment, a strong economy, and vibrant international trade. Preserving these are better Dem calling cards than Trump's. Win FL and you can have the election sealed.
15
@PT, I hope they hear you loud and clear.
I am writing Bernie in, one vote, my vote. The DNC can vote too, just not with my vote.
4
That’s the attitude that got us Trump.
1
@Dave Hartley
You nailed it.
@s.whether
Then you have contributed to Trump's next win. Congratulations on throwing your vote away, as many did in the 2016 election because they didn't "like" Clinton. People who wrote in Biden, Bernie, the Easter Bunny or Santa Claus are part of the reason we are living this current nightmare.
Yeah they can, no doubt, but they won’t, because Democrats are obsessed with an image of themselves that’s anything but pertinent or meaningful at large.
3
The Florida Democratic Party needed to be at every flight arriving in Miami, Tampa, Orlando... from San Juan with Hurricane Maria refugees. They needed to be there with apartment and home referrals, food and medical assistance and help with schools, childcare, job searches, VOTER REGISTRATION, etc.
Had they actively sought the votes of the more than 250.000 US citizens from Puerto Rico who arrived in Florida prior to the 2018 midterms, DeSantis would not be the governor and Scott would not sit in the Senate.
Those voters are still there waiting to be engaged. Will Democrats drop the ball again?
17
@Julian Fernandez Couldn't agree more. Scott made six trips to Puerto Rico and came up with programs to help evacuees from PR, all just to curry favor with them. Meanwhile, back in Washington, the Democrats ranted and raved against Trump for his administration's poor response to Maria. Remains to be seen if the FL Democratic Party has finally figured out that being against Trump isn't enough.
3
Cuba or Venezuela? One third of the Hispanic pop in Florida is Puerto Rican. This doesn't seem to compute with the national media, which still thinks that Florida is chock full of refugees from Castro - no, it is chock full of refugees from hurricane Maria and the criminal Trump response to the situation. It is chockful of refugees from the selling of Puerto Rico's financial structure to predator hedge funds. Run strongly on making PR the next state. Run strongly on going back to Americans helping Americans. That is what needs to happen.
10
Florida is not Miami-Dade and Broward counties. Most of the state is conservative.
Every election cycle my neighborhood is Jamed with fundraisers for Hillary, Obama, other dems, etc, it’s like exciting, except for the traffic, but ... I also live in a swing distric in a swing state and ...
If the dems keep pushing socialism, Medicare for all, free college, reparations and other free giveaways they can forget Florida and a lot of the swing states and guarantee trump 2020.
4
The irony is that Florida is Socialism 101: it thrives on huge transfer payments from the Federal government. The fact that those payments are for elder programs allows people to comfortably think otherwise.
4
@alec Better than soclialism and giveaways for the rich and corporations which is the only the GOP is concerend about.
Florida is a potential treasure for the Democrats. That being said, I know it cannot be taken for granted. Getting potential Democrats registered and voting is an art form. Barack Obama's people understood this and performed well.
Get back to fundamentals of politics. First, offer candidates who are obvious and appealing alternatives to the trash in the Oval Office. Next, take positions that address real concerns and have a degree of vision for Florida's future. Finally, toughen up. Republicans play hard and dirty. Fight them with your best weapon: An enlightened mind.
9
Doubling down on the old conservative anti-Castro Cuban voters isn't going to win Florida for the GOP. This critique of the Dem Party may be accurate in the Sunshine state, I have no idea, but it sure isn't the case in the state I canvassed, where we flipped all the statewide races to Democrats in 2018.
2
This is all assuming Florida is worth the effort. If you can defeat Trump in Florida, the victory almost certainly assures his defeat. However, Florida is a really strange place. Erratic and unreliable are the words that come to mind. You then add the structural disadvantages imposed by voter suppression and the picture is even more grim. A chance at winning Florida will consume a lot of resources that are possibly better spent elsewhere. We won't really know until the primary field narrows.
The main argument for spending money in Florida right now is to make Trump think he's at risk there. The more Trump is consumed by the fear of losing Florida, the less time and resources he has to spend elsewhere. Actually winning the state is a secondary concern right now. Democrats are probably better served assuming they won't win Florida. Overconfidence there will probably lead candidates to discount smaller but ultimately more important states. Again, sort of depends on the candidate.
3
If the premise of this article is correct, that the Democratic establishment can win if they act now, then Trump's victory in Florida is assured. The Democratic establishment spends most of its time sitting in a chair, talking to big donors.
3
@Dario Bernardini They didnt flip 40 seats in the House by sitting on their rear ends,
@Tom
Much of that was due to progressives getting out there volunteering and knocking on doors. Until then, they lost the House, Senate, and more than 900 state legislative seats nationwide...an impressive record of political incompetence.
I volunteered at local Democratic headquarters to go door-to-door leading up to the 2016 race and was given a list of addresses -- only households already registered as Democrats -- and these rolls were woefully out of date. It was a waste of time, preaching to the choir. Hopefully, the stomping that Democrats took in the Florida midterms will wake up the local party officials, but I'm not holding my breath.
6
This is an important article, a accurate critique of the Democrats, not by an insider or a journalist, but a front lines worker, making it more pertinent. "Democrats, on the other hand, are habitually late. They assume demography is destiny and think their policies speak for themselves." That summary hits the essence of the Democrats' behavior and thinking, both in 2016 and going toward 2020. As this writer implies, that is a recipe for defeat.
8
The article ignores that Gillum lost many crucial voters because of his opposition to school voucher programs, which in Florida are limited to low and moderate income families. Supporting the unions over parents is not a winning proposition.
I moved from NY to Florida and Florida makes it MUCH easier to vote, so people should stop slamming Florida for voter repression. There is vote by mail, not limited to people being absent.
5
Educate them, quickly. That's what the Democrats need to do in the red areas. Go there. Show them you are not the devil out to destroy them with Socialism, which is the mantra spewing from FOX, Trump and the GOP. The Democrats need to ask those audiences if they or a friend or a family member ever received a check from the government i.e. unemployment, disability, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, food stamps, Welfare or was educated in a public school. Many will say yes. Explain the deferences between Norway's socialistic programs and Venezuela's socialistic programs. Norway, good. Venezuela, bad. Above all, do not get bogged down in wonkish details, they don't have the attention span for that. Never forget that the red areas of the country thrive on emotional hot button issues. So keep the messages and slogans simple. The Democrats may win over states like Florida, but they have their work cut out for them. Teaching is hard, turning people's brains into mush is easy. To accomplish the latter listen to Fox News, the GOP and Trump.
11
@Phil M
Yes indeed. Teaching is hard. Yet when people have their opinion about any subject, be they about local, country-wide or international policies and politics thrice pre-chewed 24/7 by the official Republican Ministry of Propaganda, aka Faux Noise, it is very easy.
"There are only two infinites. One is the universe, the other is human stupidity, whereas I am not even sure about the first".
Albert Einstein
1
Public schools and Medicare among most of the things you listed are not socialism, anymore than driving on state roads paid for by taxpayer money or a police department paid by the taxpayers is socialism. While you're educating them, tell them Democrats believe in unlimited immigration, reparations, abortion in the third trimester on demand, and gender-neutral locker rooms in high school and see how they respond. Your assumption that everyone is an idiot and if you could just explain things to them in little words they would agree with you is flawed.
@Phil M Your belief that people are idiots and that if you just speak to them using little words they will obviously accept your viewpoint is flawed and is one of the main reasons Democrats lose. BTW, things like Medicare and public schools are no more socialism than paved roads and municipal police departments.
Republicans will win Florida in 2020 and thereafter. Curtailing the SALT tax deduction was a Republican political masterstroke, as it is already driving significant migration to Florida (which has no state income tax) from high tax states like NY and NJ. These new FL arrivals will all vote against Democrats, as Democrats prefer higher income taxes and Republicans lower income taxes. As FL attracts affluent voters, it will shun Democrats (particularly Sanders/Warren-style socialists who want to rescind doubling of the estate tax deduction.
3
That argument is incoherent.
First, whatever tiny effect NY migrantsto Florida might have is overwhelmed by other demographics.
Second, property tax refugees aren’t fleeing the income tax, which you cite as Florida’s draw. If they’re coming for lower property taxes, their hand was forced by Republicans. Do you think they’re going to vote for them?
Finally Republicans aren’t for lower taxes, except on the wealthy. The last two tax cuts made that plain. What they’re for is nonfunctional government, for example at the EPA and CFPB and Education. Or, gee, the State Department these days.
14
@Richard Um, no.
We know the governorship and senate seat was lost by razor thin margins. We also know there was some kind of hack in two counties. The burden of proving the election was fair and nothing was changed is on those in charge of the system.
I have no confidence that FL, GA, TX would actually allow a fair vote.
We already know that "conservative" ideals (or whatever Republicans actually stand for) don't have the support of the majority of the country. And we know that those Republicans would abandon democracy before they abandon those ideals.
For all we know, Florida did flip. Stacy Abrams did win GA. But those outcomes didn't hold because of fraud.
So please, keep up the good work in FL. Try to win against a stacked deck. But you ought to also be building support for a fight against that deck being stacked. This article assumes that the election is fair. That's a big hole in your strategy.
47
Yes they can go democrat if they follow these three main points.
1-Don't identity obsess or social engineer.
2-3- Repeat point one.
In other words don't nominate an identity obsessed, social engineering, I am not Trump, vote for me because I am a woman and my time for anointment has come, and the era of the white man is over east coast liberal, never met a war, trade agreement, wall street banker candidate like Hillary again.
Listen to the people, address the issues that Trump demagogued like immigration, trade etc. with moderate progress ideas, number one being a national affordable quality health plan.
The latter is a big winner for the democrats.
15
So much focus on midwestern voters is hindering the outreach to key states. Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, S Carolina and Georgia are all within reach. Stacy Abrams and Andrew Gillum showed the way. Health care, $15 minimum wage, child care and education are uniting issues. In the coastal states policy for dealing with increased storms and floods will resonate. The DNC has to work now with local groups to counter the incumbent advantage. Tom Perez has to step up.
11
I’m not so sure Dems can win over Florida. Two state house special elections this week kept Republicans solidly in power. And snowbirds and retirees moving to Florida aren’t exactly progressive.
11
Registration drives.
Door to door outreach.
Phone banks.
Carpools.
Text chains.
And, of course, lawyers and social media specialists to document and challenge the attempts at voter suppression that you know are going to occur.
The DNC should be spending as much as possible on these--today and tomorrow and all the tomorrows (and they should have been doing it months and years ago).
The elections are won in the trenches--and by proper messaging to inspire people to get into those trenches. In particular, Democrats need to be able to counter the opposition messages that kept too many African American male voters away from the polls in 2016 compared to 2012 and 2008 (all due respect the tribalism that helped the turnout in those years)--it's arguable that this vote reduction in Detroit, Milwaukee, Jacksonville, Charlotte, Philadelphia, etc. cost Hillary FL, NC, PA, WI, MI.
This cannot be allowed again, and the party needs to take a no expenses spared, no excuses approach to it.
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I hope that all the environmental refugees from hurricane Maria who moved to Florida vote Democratic.
Puerto Ricans are US citizens and when they live on the island may only participate in national democracy by voting in the presidential primary.
Want to vote for President?
- Move to Florida
- Change your residency (actually live in Florida) at least six months BEFORE the election.
- Check your local requirements to be sure. And follow the rules.
Also some food for thought. Democrats DON"T deny climate change. And indeed understand we are ALL (residents of planet Earth) in very serious danger because of climate change.
Want to take back power? Then participate in democracy by educating yourself and voting accordingly.
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@Rob Brown
Census data shows that the people from Puerto Rico who moved to Florida have higher incomes, more likely to be married and educated than those who moved to NY. And when one considers the COLA in Florida, the higher income level of Florida transplants is very significant. People who wanted to work came to Florida, people who wanted benefits went to NY.
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@Rob Brown after Maria, Republican governor Rick Scott set up welcome centers and bent over backwards ro assist the folks fleeing Puerto Rico. Don't be so sure those people will vote Dem
After the Hurricane devastated Puerto Rico, there was a heavy influx of people from the PR to the Orlando-Miami area. They are US citizens and can vote, once registered. trump and FL Governor Desantis have no use for them and should be lining up to vote Democratic. However, if they are not identified and educated about the damaging effects of republicans on their lives, they will not vote. Mobilise and educate. Today.
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@stan -- The Florida Democratic Party is held hostage by the corporate-wing Democrats, who had zero interest in expanding the base by making sure that newly arrived Puerto Ricans became party-affiliated as Democrats in order to vote in the primary elections. That should tell you what the biggest problem in Florida is: Clinton era "New Democrats" who recruit and fund former Republicans, like Patrick Murphy (who gave the personal max to elect Romney vs Obama.) What happens: The Republicans elect the Republican candidate 52 vs 44 in the case of (new D) Murphy vs (R) Senator Marco Rubio. BUT - The corporate wing is happy because they basically prevented a progressive candidate from being considered. That's why voter turnout is 30% in Florida.
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The 2020 Presidential race at this point is not favoring Trump. Wait another year and a half and if we're stuck in a near war standoff with Iran (or worse), an economy that's tanking thanks in part to Trump-made tariff disputes with adversaries and once close allies and neighbors, more corruptions and impeachment inquiries. It could be even tougher on a President and an administration that now is even worse than the Harding one.
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Without Florida, Trump has no path to reelection. The Democrats need to make Florida a real contest to force Trump to spend time and money there and give the Democrats a better chance to lock up Michigan, PA, Wisconsin, and keep Minnesota and New Hampshire in the fold. There is precisely no reason for Trump to win in Florida considering how shamefully he and the GOP have treated the elderly, Hispanics, and the working class. Democrats need to do what this writer says and invest heavily in turning out the vote and mining new votes, but also by placing ads, e.g., showing Mitch McConnell (the Republican equivalent of Nancy Pelosi) tearing a social security check from the hands of an elderly couple while Trump smirks from behind him. Go! Fight! Win!
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Wake up. Clinton won by millions of votes, as was reflected in all the polls, even with massive voter suppression of poor, minority and inner city Americans. Duplicating what the electoral college was designed to do. Prevent the popular vote from winning. Please stop repeating the myth that Trump was "elected". He was appointed by oligarchs to do their bidding. The recent "razor thin" victory margins are evidence the elections are being stolen by only just enough votes to insure no recount, but not so many as to be obviously fake.
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@Dave
Well said, Dave. I'm afraid the media and the party have not yet awakened to the fact that elections are being stolen in "Swing" States. They still have a dream that everything is fine and elections are fair. It's just the voters who need to do better.
Trump will remain in office as long at this delusion holds. And we won't stand a chance of winning until one side is held to task for it's criminal activity in the not only political process but the election process.
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@Dave - Trump won the Electoral College, just as every president has done in the almost 240 years since the Constitution was ratified. Are you saying that the Democrats weren't aware of the Electoral College?? If so, they weren't qualified to be government officials. Are you saying that they didn't care about winning the Electoral College? If so, they weren't qualified to be government officials. Are you saying the Democrats were too stupid to understand the importance of the Electoral College? Then they weren't qualified to be government officials.
What this article has to say is very much in agreement with my experience as a volunteer for Bernie Sanders in 2016. The Sanders campaign followed the conventional strategy, focusing on getting out voters they identified as likely to cast their ballot for Sanders. However, I found that when I spoke to people on the street, people who are not specifically identified as Sanders voters, they were quite receptive to the message of the Sanders campaign. However when I suggested to the campaign that the strategy be refocused to embrace the electorate more broadly, they were unreceptive. Their conventional strategy was of course not successful.
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To claim that fear doesn't mobilise people, and that people cannot be scared into engagement, shows a resistance to evidence that undercuts the rest of her argument; Trump won in 2016 basically by playing to fear and a (misplaced) sense of outrage.
Outreach is of course essential, but how much of it should be done by the DNC? It would seem the state-level organisation would be best situated to do what Ms Mercado suggests.
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@Danny
To be accurate, Ms. Mercado said, "But fear does not mobilize voters of color; you cannot scare people into engagement." Perhaps the standard fear-mongering of politicians is less effective with certain groups.
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Your best point is that elections are won in the trenches. Debates are important, but campaign workers on the ground control the outcome. Democrats, however, need to end the circular firing squad, unite around a candidate, and focus all their efforts and money on defeating the demagogue.
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Good luck! Unless a Dem kowtows to the right-wing that dominates Cuban and Venezuelan and other Latin American emigre communities, we will lose. This has been true since JFK and was aggravated under Clinton.
And if you do kowtow —as Sen Nelson did— there is no reciprocal loyalty. They took down Gillum and Nelson too, as soon as there was a new Rubio (Scott, DeSantis) on offer. Investments have to be made among liberal and potentially liberal constituencies.
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@David
I never went to Florida but as the state with New York retirees the thought of no health care would frighten me despite having that socialist health care program
There appears to be a lot of education that needs to be done. Listening to those people the other night it was apparent that they think they have the secrets to life in a cult that most thinking people do want to be a member of Stupidity is stupidity but we have to educate them that in America they can’t allow dictators to control the destiny of this country. We are all Americans call these folks out and let them know we won’t allow dictators to win.
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How is it possible that in 2019 the Democratic Party is still lagging in efforts to organize low propensity voters and to ensure high voter turnout in 2020?
If this is the case, all the "energy" around Trump's daily outrages are not translating into the kinds of organizational work that win elections. The arguments about whether to impeach Trump or investigate now and impeach later is a massive distraction if the ground work isn't being laid to win the Senate as well as the House and Presidency in the 2020 election.
There will be no Medicare for All OR public option, no Green New Deal OR rejoining the Paris Accord, and no protection of reproductive rights, and no reversal of the rightward lurch of the federal courts unless Senate is taken by Democrats.
We need to pay more attention to efforts to get out the vote, and less attention to Trump's twitter feed. The outrage is too easy. If it isn't translating into local organization that will get out the vote of low propensity voters, then we are getting played.
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Because these voters know that Democrats aren’t trying to help them. Democrats are trying to make them dependent.
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@Once From Rome
That's funny-- like dependent upon government supported graft and tax giveaways for real estate developers?
Meanwhile, a significant portion of Trump's base likely benefits from government programs such as Medicaid, Medicare, SS etc.
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@MVonKorff - you're absolutely right. But, since grinding it out in the trenches is just so, so, so.... uncool, this will continue. Add in the stupidity of virulent identity politics, and the demand for "message purity", and the formula for defeat (and four more years of whining on social media) is complete.
5
Florida is a large state, from the northernmost point to the panhandle, to the southernmost point most of this State is Conservative, rural Republican where not alot of money is earmarked for Education. The only areas that are Liberal are the southeast coast and Key West. The reason is that winters bring more and more east coast Liberals.
Several factors that need to be addressed, first and foremost why in each and every State is the Republican slate always on the top of the ballot? Broward County's ballot this past year was poorly designed with the Democratic Senatorial slate buried on the lower left-hand corner beneath the instructions. The result was the loss of many Democrats votes, where no selection was made. But this is the deep south with a strong Confederate slant. How can Democrats make their message more adaptable for rural whites?
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@Carol I would suggest you get "out and about" in Florida. I drive the entire state and there are Democratic strongholds in most areas. Tampa, Orlando, Miami are all strong Democratic populations BUT Democrats are allowing Republicans to control the message.
Ask Bill Nelson and Andrew Gilliam.
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@Carol - do you really think that voters make their choices based upon what candidates are on the top of the ballot?
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@Carol
What is the Democratic Party leadership's "message". Nancy Pelosi is mute on impeachment, meets with Mayor Pete to discuss how to block Medicare for All, disses the Green New Deal. Fortunately, a couple of candidates aren't taking the corporate dollar so are free to speak their minds as to how to address our stifling income inequality and recapture a government "for the people". The stronger of the two is Senator Sanders.
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It’s interesting to watch Democrats scramble to change politics. They flee places they have dominated for years; Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Vermont, etc. Then try to change places they prefer; Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, etc. Why not simply stay put?
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Ross Burns,
Please let them go. This is one of the reasons I will not live in Florida. All of the liberals from the east coast are moving to Florida. They are changing the flavor of this once lovely state.
I know a lot of liberals, and further to the left, living in Florida, and what this article fails to come to grips with is that a central problem is not just with outreach, but the Democratic platform itself.
My whole family are immigrants. We grew up with nothing, killing ourselves to make a life and get some financial security. After working every backbreaking job imaginable from the time I was 10, I earned a merit scholarship to law school. One of my first jobs was to represent the elderly.
These clients were barely able to survive over 20 years ago, when the social safety net was much stronger. The cost of Medicare is not what many think, with massive Part B premiums every month, a 20 percent co-payment for everything. Prescription coverage, costing more, is awful.
One can argue Medicare for All would fix this, but the elderly and the disabled, no matter how much they identify with Democrats and can't stand Trump have every reason not to believe it.
Over 20 percent of the population of Florida is on Medicare. Vilifying them helps no one. I personally may like Medicare for All, but it's toxic in even the most left-leaning areas of Florida, and how I knew many Democrats would stay home in 2018 when Andrew Gillum made it central to his platform.
Speak with elderly liberals on a fixed income who are the most loyal Democratic voters and you'll hear how they're scared to death of losing their benefits, or having them reduced, as doing so would in fact be their death.
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@Robert B
This is why I no longer support Bernie Sanders.
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@Robert B
Correct. Republicans, with the consent of Dems, have been slowly dismantling Medicare and Social Security. Medicare is not great insurance anymore, Social Security for man (especially women) provides too little to live on. I would rather see candidates address this, and to propose solutions to funding that Republicans detest. The Democratic Party must also understand the critical need to hold the House and take the Senate in order to protect Medicare and Social Security, regardless who wins the White House.
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Absent serious & thoughtful changes, fiscal reality will eventually force cuts regardless of which party is in power. This is the reality you should be telling your clients.
3
Low propensity voters are just average folks who don't really follow politics like those of us reading the NYT right now do. They typically don't see a huge difference between the parties or candidates, and if they go to the ballot every 4 years or so they do so because something a candidate said gave them the crazy notion that if they pull this lever their lives might get a little better materially.
When they're invariably let down, they don't return to the voting booth for another 4 years (or longer!).
Yesterday, the leading Democratic challenger to Mr. Trump told a banquet hall of Wall Street Donors that if he's elected President, "nothing will change."
While Ms. Mercado has the right idea in Florida it doesn't much matter without a candidate or national party that is prepared to walk the walk.
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With the Democratic Debates coming next week to Miami both Julian Castro and Beto O’Rourke should spend some time in Florida.
Both are from Texas and feel comfortable speaking out on issues of importance to Hispanic voters. Speaking in fluent Spanish, O’Rourke bridges the gap between diverse communities with a comprehensive immigration and climate policies, both of interest to Floridians. But he has spent relative little time in the state, underscoring the point of this article.
The author is right, Democrats need to address key issues of this dynamic and ever changing state. Next week can be a good start if they make it seem like next year they are serious about winning Florida.
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