"one in which bottom-line concerns take precedence over labor and environmental standards"
Well, Trump's idea of what matters certainly aligns with China's MO. For all his rah-rah talk to the blue collar folks who worship him, Trump cares mostly about profit, not workers, and certainly not about the environment.
11
The ultra-wealthy who have benefitted most from Trump-GOP actions aren't as affected by Trump's trade destabilization because they're diversified in terms of geography and industry (including services, information, and finance). Many of them are opportunist "vulture capitalists" who will buy failing US businesses and strip out wealth with no consideration other than immediate gain. Meanwhile, small and medium businesses, and lower and middle income people aren't faring as well as they could, confusing what many believe to be a thwarted entitlement with actual government assistance (welfare?) programs they reflexively and ignorantly abhor. What we need, what we're want, are real leaders who understand these complexities and can speak plain, honest truth. Trump is not that person (and is certainly not a leader) and the GOP is a mere husk of its former self completely lacking any capacity to honestly lead our nation. Meanwhile, we struggle and become more isolated from and unessential to the rest of the world.
12
The wealthiest and most powerful people in the world own second homes here, educate their children here, seek medical attention here, shop and play here .. The US can start deporting these people or make it very difficult for them to remain here if their governments refuse to negotiate.. It's called leverage! At the end of the day everyone wants to come here - No American wants to live outside the US - yes for one or two years "write a book" but all Americans return-- only a handful of Americans chose to reside outside the US... We have clean water, flush toilets and a postal system that delivers our Amazon purchases the next day... Try finding that someplace else!
1
America needs to think like underdogs not as entitled winners. What’s number 1 today can become a disaster tomorrow.
Change always happens. America has to revamp how it develops its people to compete and thrive in a world where technology and innovation is a way of life.
America wants to get by on the cheap. We don’t want to spend public money and some realize that educating everyone properly is going to be expensive.
Trying to claw back 20th century jobs is the road to poverty. Get people trained in useful skills and instill lifelong learning and a safety net to cover inevitable layoffs.
12
@Aaron. You seriously think other countries don’t have flush toilets, potable water, and home delivery?!
My partner and I retired and expatriated 1.5 years ago and had all of those things in Argentina, Uruguay, and Chile. And a Chilean friend underwent out-patient laser surgery for cataracts a few months ago.
The level of ignorance about the rest of the world in America is truly sobering.
31
I worked in the US in the mid-1970s and have visited numerous times since. On many occasions in the past I've extolled the virtues of the American people.
I've also travelled the world for over 40 years and I'm afraid flush toilets and Amazon deliveries are not how I'd gauge whether a society is a good place to live or not and there are plenty of people moving to countries other than the US. It may come as a surprise too that many of those have infrastructure and services superior to the US, while at the same time being more equitable societies.
Based on my experience there's been a change of attitude in America starting from the end of the Cold War which quickly accelerated after the 9/11 attacks. America has become a much less friendly and more insecure country, one that treats its friends as potential threats and which prefers to deal with favoured autocratic regimes.
The major problems in the US (and, for that matter, other Western democracies) haven't been caused by their citizens being ripped off by other countries - they've been caused by their own governments and corporations not distributing the gains from globalisation fairly - look at the concentration of wealth if you're in doubt.
Someone said to me last year 'the Americans have trashed their brand'. The issues facing the US aren't outside - they're inside - and exceptionalism is a road to nowhere.
29
Trump and his supporters are isolationists. They believe America can be both self-sufficient and wealthy.
The reality is that the global economy is $80 trillion with a lot of undeveloped markets to grow. The USA is a $20 trillion economy that is very mature with a population that is growing slowly.
If the rest of the world figures out a way to continue free trading and let’s America walk away lit wants too....America will be a backward 3rd world country in about 60 to 100 years.
You have to play in the biggest sandbox and subject yourself to competition. It keeps you innovative and up to speed with changes in technology.
12
“In the Trump framing, the United States is best served by the unsentimental exploitation of its position as the world’s largest economy. It must brandish threats of limiting access to its market to force other countries to capitulate to its demands.”
That’s really the crux of it. This inept and benighted President is trying to run the country, at a time of phenomenal change in the world, the way he’s tried (rather unsuccessfully) to do real estate. The opportunity cost he’s inflicting, on America and the world, is staggering.
17
Globalization did happen by governmental design. NAFTA.
3
@PLH Crawford and GATT, WTO, IMF, World Bank, OSCE, ASEAN, MERCUSOR, ICSID and about 5000 investment treaties. Governement design.
3
Something has got to be wrong with this world order if it takes no more than the spasmodic whims of an ignoramus to bring it down.
8
@sogar
Made me laugh but so true! It is absolute insanity.
We are a republic though which is based on the greeks. They sure loved their greek tragedy so maybe it is baked in.
Trump is our modern day Nero. "Nero lost all sense of right and wrong and listened to flattery with total credulity."
7
Trump will start a war in q4 this year to get reelected.
1
Under crazy Trump and the do-nothing GOP, America is being left behind. We have lost the respect of Europe which used to be our closest friends and allies. Travel to Europe now and everyone you meet hates him. Travel around the US and outside of the South, everyone hates him. Sad!
7
The Republican Party has become the enemy of the people
11
@Pete Rogers
They think they are just sticking it to the libs but in reality they are hurting the whole world. I'm confident that we will remove trump this election cycle but if we don't I expect an international consequence to stick it to us.
2
Unlike Trump, China isn't stupid. They're forming trade alliances with our former partners. Soon, we'll be on the outside looking in and wondering what hit us.
12
One of the men who served as President Dwight Eisenhower's Secretary of Defense was wrongly believed to have said "What's good for GM is good for the country." He did not say that. However, the current president seems to have latched onto the concept, but with the substitution of himself for General Motors. His only motive is the demand that what is good for Trump Inc is good for the country. And if it's not, then too bad, because by his logic you are un-American. He is bankrupting the country because that's what he knows how to do. Yet I have to believe that more and more people are beginning to understand that he is nothing more than a sad, vacuous, old man who only knows how to bully. Not even that is working like it used to for him. Here's to electing Elizabeth Warren in 2020. She has the knowledge and the ability to clean up after the financial disaster of Donald Trump.
25
@Vanessa Hall Keep in mind, whatever Warren or Biden or whomever does, a quarter of the country will be fighting any reform tooth and nail, and half won't get out and vote.
2
Not many citizens of first world countries want to live in America !
14
@roger. This American living in the UK is appalled every time I go back to America.... two murders in the last 3 years of my visits (random murders of friends of friends.....).... health care that is horribly inaccessible, prescription costs, (200usd for one cancer pill....). 1000USD for my elderly mum’s mammogram at the hospital...... people abusing the Emergency room to get care. Homeless people increasing....... police in the high schools (armed)..... but wave that flag........
8
Trump lost over a billion $ over 10 years the most of any American and has had 6 bankruptcies. Trump created the illusion of being a successful billionaire using his father;s fortune inheriting 413 million$ not the million$ loan he claims. Trump lies a lot about $ and everything else and when he creates chaos in the world trade markets he will rush in and claim tariffs will save the world economy.
26
Anyone who has ever done business with Donald Trump knows he is without principle.
In addition to 6 corporate bankruptcies, the man doesn’t pay his bills.
This purported billionaire runs out on hotel bills and when they try to collect he says sue him.
He has been involved in an average of one lawsuit every 3 days for the past 30 years.
When the financial Crisis of 2008-2009 threatened to wipe him out for good, Russian oligarchs moved 1.4 billion in collateral at Deutsche bank to save him from defaulting at the only bank still willing to lend him money.
In return, Putin pushed him to undermine President Obama with his birther movement.
With his campaign he extended the use of racism as a divisive wedge issue in branding Mexicans as criminals and racists, while he is an admitted sexual predator and a crook and tax cheat to boot.
Now he is doing his master Putin’s bidding, attempting to bring down the post World War II order.
He is selling out his own country, and democracy for a golden calf. An the for profit tax free evangelicals cheer him on as one of their own.
21
trump's attention will be drawn to the fallacy of his trade policies, when the vacancy rates at his branded hotels, exceed that of Motel 6.
3
The chaos Trump has brought to the world market, and the undermining of America's global leadership role is exactly what Putin wanted and paid for with Trump.
48
All this assumes the Trump voters are ignorant of the risks to the economic risks to the US.
I wonder if the author considered the possibility that Trump supporters (and brexiters) would concede this interpretation, but as long as they are left out of the economic boom, they would just rather see the global market burn down that be further left behind.
5
@Unkle skippy
Yes, they would rather see the country burn also.
1
This is hilarious! The greedy right wingers brainwashed evangelicals and tapped into the racist hatreds of white nationalists to maintain the cold icy grip of the GOP on the country so they could have their way with the people of the country and install a fake democracy where money buys power. All to enrich themselves. Now Trump comes along and realizes the brainwashed nature of the American people and goes full on WWE on our politics and it works. He then proceeds to destroy any semblance of democracy and at the behest of Putin drives the country into a hole. Yet, no one can either see it or do anything about it because they are worried about the economy.
The greedy corporate overlords got what they wanted, and soon they will get what they deserve.
I must say that in all of this the people and the DFL have been exceedingly passive. I suppose that the technological surveillance system and the repeated brainwash messages has worked on most people including most DFL politicians. At the very least it is obvious that most do not have the courage to stand up to the GOP and their imbecile king.
4
The moron who resides in the White House, imagines a turning back to a more bucolic era of mid-20th century American economic and industrial might. Sad, really. If the United States was once a titan of industry, it no longer is. And imagining an industrial landscape of days past, is of no help to the dead and dying cities and towns of America's middle west. The United States, without any long term planning, or thought, may eventually slide into a Brazil-style economy, with a further crumbling infrastructure, maintained by the incredible ignorance and indifference of the present administration..
7
The trouble with Neoliberal globalization is that, like its architect, Milton Friedman, only a select few benefit - hedge fund king, Stephen Schwarzman just donated §150m to Oxford University for a center to bear his name. Hedge fund fraudsters have been at the forefront in destroying US industries by taking over companies, saddling them with debt, or dismembering them and selling its parts. Not to create value, but to inflate their fortunes. Jobs are lost.
By definition, Neoliberalism rejects rules and regulations, thus the mess that globalization is today. The UN has just released its 2019 population report which shows that Asia and Africa will account for over 8 billion of what will be a little over ten billion people by 2100. With all the climate changes going on, how is Sub-Sahara Africa going to feed, house and provide a livelihood to people? Or, Asia? If migration is viewed as a challenge, just wait as population in some places double each year.
Trump, of course, has no clue. Nor does he understand what war means, either economic or military. Hopefully, the world is paying attention to those who are supporting Trumpian malfeasance.
8
Tarrifs are a terribly heavy handed response to Globalization. But the truth remains: if you aren’t rich, there’s a lot to hate about Globalization.
.
It’s all about building wealth. You said as much: “Businesses will continue to tap world markets and trade across borders — a wealth-enhancing formula”. But whose wealth is being built? The nationless, pitiless class of jet setters who hoard the world’s wealth and refuse to take responsibility for the damage they’ve done. Their wealth is being built While the middle class sees our wages stagnate, our quality of life deteriorate, the good jobs disappear - and while the poor are poisoned by industrial waste, die young, and suffer immeasurably.
.
Globalization is here to stay - yes. But if they don’t want to have to spend a good portion of their riches on body guards, the nationless one percent had better grow hearts!
6
The fundamental premise of TPP was positive, but the actuality was riddled with hidden agendas and secret codicils that the participants refused to reveal. The rump TPP is likely of the same ilk, as it was created by the same avaricious groups of people less the US. It would be interesting to know if the rump version still has the galling supra national legal framework that the signatories would permit to impose verdicts on member states.
It has become apparent that globalization that destroys societal fabrics is not viable; the TPP as rejected is an example of enriching the few largely at the expense of the many. It isn't clear right now how traumatic this continued unbalanced version of globalization is going to be.
3
Trump in power will eventually erode our most favored Nation status due to the schizoid machinations of his faulty economic policies. He is running our economics in a similar way to his RE business which led to several bankruptcies(6). He is a daredevil and proud of it.
5
@DENOTE MORDANT
Trump is no daredevil, he is a coward.
3
The rest of the world will continue to grow with (faster) or without (slower) us. It’s up to us if we want to play in a largely saturated market of 300m or growing market of 7b. The world is not going to stop playing because we take our bat and go home. They will just find other ways to play.
Trade makes everyone prosperous whether it is hard for simple-minded to see it clearly or not. Increase in productivity from cheaper Chinese goods doesn’t just expand options for consumers but also strengthens the competitiveness of our businesses.
So, the choice is ours. Do we want the rest of the world to play with us with rules written largely by us or do we want them to find their own game...
8
“Under the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a separate trade deal forged by 11 countries, Japan agreed to open its heavily protected market to agricultural imports, handing American farmers a lucrative opportunity. Days into his presidency, Mr. Trump closed that window by renouncing American participation in the deal. Now, European farmers have secured their own broadened access to the Japanese market.” This is why Bernie Sanders, who opposed the TPP in 2016 and forced the cowardly Hillary to disavow it, should not be elected. Whoever can make the case that the TPP was smart ought to jump to the head of the polls.
9
Trade is when one country has a surplus of something another has a shortage of and vice versa; then they will ‘trade’. Globalisation is not trade; it is exploitation and economic imperialism.
5
@waldo It's not the 1800s, globalization is not a simple "sell your surplus" anymore.
It's taking the "surplus" from thousands of different cities and towns, and make something that everyone wants -- i.e. the computer/phone you are reading this on.
3
"Globalization did not happen by government design, and it will not be dismantled by political predilections. Businesses will continue to tap world markets and trade across borders..."
Wrong, wrong, and wrong. The article promotes (or can't see beyond) the false premise of inevitability. Yes, corporate entities have no national loyalty and will do whatever they can get away with. But governments can (and sometimes do) place limits on corporate behavior. The potential ability to resist globalization is especially strong in a country like the United States that has an enormous economy.
That President Trump's trade policies have no coherence does not mean that one has to accept the formula, set forth in the article, that globalization yields "bounty" (that just needs to be distributed better).
If one can imagine a world where there are values beyond the single one of assuring frictionless flows of capital, it immediately becomes apparent that the choice is NOT unrestricted globalization or Trump-world but rather unrestricted globalization or a world in which labor, community, and environment are prioritized.
10
"Globalization did not happen by government design, and it will not be dismantled by political predilections."
Well, global economic development may not have happened by government design, but the globalization of the American economy was the result of deliberate government decisions to reduce or eliminate tariffs, create free-trade zones and displace American workers. A global economic scheme could have been phased in slowly over generations, while providing guaranteed incomes for the generation displaced. Instead it was imposed in the manner of a wrecking ball tearing open a dam, and laying waste to the people and cities in its path.
Worst of all, it is too late to unravel the scheme. Efforts to do so amount to sawing off the branch the survivors are sitting on.
8
@Robert M
The biggest loss of jobs is to automation. Robots don't get sickdays, go on maternity leave, don't get vacation days and have no restriction on hours worked per week. They don't get into disputes with management or lodge complaints to HR. Out local car plant is now 75% automated. However, with the company being in Canada rather than loosing good employees they retained and retrained the workers to service and keep the automation working.Less physically demanding and better pay. Sort of a win/win if you want to run a company where the "grunt" repetative jobs are now automated and your staff services them.
7
On the bright side, this might help Mexico, but it would even be better if they could setup shop in Central America and sub-Saharan Africa.
2
Trump's tariffs -- 19th Century tools for a 21st Century world.
He doesn't get Globalization.
5
@Richard Add to that, he doesn't seem to "get" international diplomacy, strong relationships with allies, utilizing experienced intelligent advisors for policy making, the looming (or now here) global climate crisis, minimum wage necessity, telling the truth, respect for . . . well, just about everyone, etc. etc. etc. Scariest person ever!
4
Sure trump can bring back those factory jobs from China, Vietnam and Bangladesh....the downside is these factory folks in Ohio will need to work really hard and only get paid $3.50 a day to be competitive. 6 days a week and 12 hours a day. Giddy up.
6
Silly article, we the United States are putting tariffs on everyone , countries are scared and resentful of our power, doesn’t seem like globalization, when everyone is scared of America.
China isn’t (yet ) a real global power, Russia is broke but has nuclear weapons, take away Russia nuclear capability their a third tier
UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia paper tigers with a lot of money.
@Independent voter America is the biggest broke country in the world and that power is waning by the day. China will never become a world power like the US/UK have been.
George Bush Sr has gotten his wish, "The New World Order", him and his corporate masters back from the 1980's. Funnyhow the Times and others, primarily Democrats have now embraced this New World Order. Back then they opposed it. What happened? Perhaps all of that money the Democrtas made from the beginning of this World Order during the 90's tech boom and 2000's real estate boom turned bust. All of that money made, soon they turned away from the New Deal of old and turned instead into Mainstream Republicans. Embracing corporatism. So much for the establishment, the Centrist , mainstream Dems. Sellouts of all you.
3
Many here are saying that most countries are moving by us regarding global trade. I say, who gave them the power these past 25 years? We did. through myopic, greedy trade policies that saw our jobs shipped to China, India and Southeast Asia. Trump's effort to reverse these criminal trade policies maybe too late. If our greedy, and cowardly past Presidents didn't bend over backwards to accomodate Wall St hoodlums wishes, like Bush Sr., Clinton, Bush Jr and Obama then we wouldn't have this current clown as President. Instead he rode the wave of midle class, blue collar anger to victory. Now we've reaped what we sowed. For those who think supporting a global trade policy that embraces low wages , brutal working conditions and environmental degradation, i say you're just a crazy as Trump.
6
If it is irreversible then so is climate change and the fate of mankind.
2
Globalism is dead.
The power has shifted due to the ability of people across the world communicating independent of Globalist media controls.
Art needs to find a new job.
Globalization is going to take a back seat to Spacealization before it ever is truly realized....Sending huge numbers of people on one way trips into deep space will not only be Highly desirable by the multitudes but seen as the easy answer to curing Overpopulation
What a biased and global elite-centric article. I wonder if Mr. Goodman has ever stepped foot in or, G-d forbid, lived in flyover country. We haven't had fair trade for decades. The Chinese (and the Indians and others) have taken us to the cleaners for years. Imagine not being able to do business in a country unless you take on a local partner and give away your intellectual property. And if you don't give it away it will be stolen anyway. Last year, 264,000 new manufacturing jobs were added in the US, representing the highest number of new workers since 1988. As a percent of the total workforce, manufacturing rose for the first time since 1984. Gee, Mr. Goodman, did Trump find Obama's magic wand? This article represents another example of fake news. By the way, several references to the US bring left out of agricultural exports to Japan. Will Goodman retract his statements when a Japan-UD trade deal is signed?
7
An an Australian, I am increasingly worried about the world’s entanglement with the USA. The whim of a sociopathic, glory seeking president can sink countries and companies because so many things today are connected to the $USD. America is abusing its power and proving to be unreliable in the eyes of many. Painful tho it may be, the world should pivot away from America, so countries can make their own minds up about who they wish to trade with. Its clear that America is no longer a shining moral light, as Kashogi’s murder proves, rather its just a greedy self serving entity on so many fronts, obsessed with making American oligarchs richer at everyone elses expense. Its such a shame that one man, Donald Trump, has reduced America to a schoolyard bully whom few like, but are afraid to say so.
4
Then have fun being entangled with China! Oh, that's right, they are already running your country.
1
".. globalization .. is probably irreversible."
The establishment is at it again with its agenda.
Like some of things I have heard in this echo chamber:
"our GDP growth will probably never exceed 2%"
"our economy will probably go into recession if Trump becomes president"
"our nuclear codes will probably not be safe if Trump gets his grubby fingers on them"
"Biden will probably make a greater president than Abe"
"NYT will probably become fair and unbiased again"
4
Washington can finally resume its original character: a sleepy little backwater. Its biggest industry will be issuing visas to our new owners as they come a-buying.
2
Anti-Trump leftists will never understand that the purpose of and the necessity for tariffs is to equalize the horrible disparity we’ve suffered for decades. Repaint it, mischaracterize all you wish, you’re simply wrong and your readership suffers as a result.
5
But for our military might no one would care for us anymore. I wish we were recognized for our universities, research, space, science and our generosity.
5
Sorry, but the current model for international trade has been failing miserably. It has utterly failed to handle a country like China that doesn't play by the rules. Also, it has helped widen inequality to such levels that countries in the West are arguably on a path to civil war (e.g., Trump, Brexit, Le Pen, etc.).
If TPP was a magic bullet to get China to alter its behavior, why wasn't it implemented before Trump's election? What were people waiting for? For as crazy as Trump is, at least he's doing something--as opposed to nothing.
As for the "globalization can't be stopped" argument, there is this thing called war that shows that it can be stopped. Would the world be a better place without wars? Yes. Will that ever happen? No.
While economic linkages help make war less likely, they cannot eliminate its risk entirely. Any time a civil war breaks out, both sides realistically know it will devastate their country's economy. Yet that obviously isn't enough to keep people from fighting civil wars.
While I abhor Trump's method of declaring a trade war on China and our allies simultaneously, I have to give Trump some credit for being the first leader in modern history who displayed a willingness to actually do something about this problem.
6
I strongly disagree with this piece. At the end of the day, every wealthy "foreigner" will want to purchase a second home here, educate their children here, shop and play here.
How many wealthy Americans are lining up to do the same in China or other 3rd world nations?
14
@Aaron, hm... those who come here are corrupted officials or tainted businessmen. Money's money and that will help us, but we are still trying to fight corruption. Look at Miami real estate - it is far from booming. It is not dead, but it is easier to buy than to sell.
2
What on earth does your comment about the wants of the world’s wealthy have to do with Trump’s undermining the economic order that has helped make America the very place you seem so sure is the envy of the world? Did you not read the multiple examples in the article about how companies are not bringing jobs back to America from China, but rather are going to other cheap labor countries? We are cutting off our noses to spite our faces just so we can say we remain the envy of the world’s wealthy? You really don’t get it. The world is moving on and leaving behind our middle and lower class workers and all you can focus on is the wealthy’s play things? Sad.
8
@Aaron- thousands. Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines. The new and old retirement haven for middle class and rich Westerners.
1
The Trans Pacific Partnership continued without America. Now all of the other TPP partners have preferential access to Japan in addition to the European countries that are a part of the Japan-EU agreement.
17
"Make America Great Again" to a lot of Trump supporters means going back to the way things were when they were young, or at least younger. That means different things to different people. Some wish for a time when white (and/or male) supremacy was the rule. Some wish for a return to what they consider proper morality. Others remember when manufacturing jobs were plentiful.
None of these wishes is going to come true. The death of the first two may be delayed in the short term but the only way the last is going to be fulfilled is by it becoming profitable to manufacture here again. At that point the globalized world will be an asset. But the children and grandchildren of those same people will long for their own "good old days".
10
Globalization died years ago, when Japan, China, India and other countries ignored the rules of free trade and engaged in blatant mercantilism. While we can disagree with Trump's tactics, trying to fight the cheating within the framework of a WTO that has been co-opted by the cheating countries, or in cooperation with other nations, would take years.
The US is transferring $500 billion of its wealth to other countries each year. This explains low inflation, secular stagnation, growing debt levels and inequality in favor of a minority that benefits from globalization.
To ignore the crisis that has built up, to defend the dogma of globalization when it clearly isn't working for the US, to blame the US of using its economic might when it is trying to level the playing field, is delusional.
17
@RAD61- agrred but tell that to the greedy americans who made and are making money since the time of the 1990's tech boom to this present day. Most are Democrats in my opinion well, sell out democrats that is. they conveniently turned away fromt the New Deal roots of the party and instead sold themselves out for the almighty $$$
4
@RAD61
People shop at Sam's Club, Walmart and Target because of price; the greater proportion of the goods they buy are not made in the US.
Trump does not exhibit a strategy, which is other than a tactic. He is just thumping his chest with arbitrary tariffs that disrupt market development efforts and by pulling out of Trans the effect was to make China an attractive trading partner to those that remained in Trans.
As the saying goes "Slow feet don't eat man." The overall policies of Trump likely will diminish the role of the US dollar and once dollar denominated goods are no more, like oil, holy cow.
4
@RAD61
"The US is transferring $500 billion of its wealth to other countries each year.". This is in apparent reference to the trade deficit of the US. But this claim, straight from Trump's ignorance of international trade is plain wrong. For starters, the US simply did not give the money away; it got products it imported in return. When you pay $50 to your grocery store, you did not simply give the money to the store; you got your groceries.
This is page 1 of chapter 1 of Trade Deficit 101.
2
"Outside of the rules". What a bunch of hooey. The rules allow the buildup of massive piles of dollar reserves, causing distortions in currency markets and the permanent shift in supply chains away from the US and its workers. The rules allow Europe to impose fiscal straight jackets on their weakest members, deterring foreign investment and allowing Germany to become an export powerhouse behind an undervalued euro.
The hell with the rules.
10
The NYT gives way too much credit to the few years Trump has been in office. To read this article is to read that Donald Trump caused the shift away from globalization. This is inverse. Trump did not cause the shift, the shift away from globalization caused the rise of Donald Trump.
Stopping blaming everything on Trump. Some things, believe it or not, are larger than a Twitter feed and the media that loves to eat it up.
12
next China will have the Uighurs do the work. Then will you free traders be happy to continue the race to the bottom?
7
US has had African Americans doing the work for a long time and most recently undocumented immigrants.
When people point to the Uighur camps in China, US had Japanese internment camps not so long ago. And separation of migrant families and camps for children a few months ago.
Point is - the US, point in time, holier than thou, attitude doesn’t work. The rest of the world views it as hypocritical.
4
Other countries and non-US businesses are reasonable actors. Isn't it in their interest to get along with the US, profiting from any opportunities, while quietly distancing themselves economically and politically?
2
As many commentators have pointed out, people have been trading across "borders" (whether tribal or national) for centuries. Global trade is not going away.
Secondly: No group of people remains in power indefinitely. Just as Rome fell and (much) later the British found their empire gutted, perhaps it's the US's turn to be diminished. We had a 125 years of a good run as an economic powerhouse. Maybe we need to think in terms of policies that allow us to maintain a good strong economy without being the world's preeminent power.
Finally: What happens when our international - and globe trotting -- major companies decide that that they can more easily do profitable business by moving their operations elsewhere? What is the impact on our economy then? I'm thinking here of the recent NYTimes article that had the CEO of Cummins (in Columbus IN) reporting that the damage done to their bottom line by tariffs was larger than the benefits gained from the 2017 tax cut. What happens to Columbus IN when Cummins decides they can be more profitable moving their company to Ireland? France? Mexico? These global companies don't have to stay in the US.
Isolationism never benefited any group of people.
15
The focus on the status quo is not sufficient by far. The emerging markets of the future will be china, India, Indonesia and Russia..maybe some others additionally. To address these markets a competitive commerce and industry is essential...and the US's is definitely not competitive.
So tariffs are just for fun but not a substitution for a renewal of the educational system and the restructuring of the economy by enforcing the share of the manufacturing industry. So I'm missing a start...e.g. by improving the infrastructure.
8
Ultranationalist movements resurgence is a consequence of widespread discontent and economic crises, with greater exclusion of young people and older adults. In the whole world there is a blindness about what happens, the market forces are out of control, since it is thought that (for example) the emergence of China to capitalism is good, when in truth what it has done is bring down the level of global competition. Let us add poverty in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East, plus the semi war state in middle east. Europe has produced correctly and with a good Welfare State for decades, is affected by all this. This scenario in Britain triggered the Brexit, but it is not the solution. Trump is a emergent sign of this crisis, but no te solution.
To stop immigration you have to change the IMF and the World Bank for something like this: https://nuevaeconomiaycompartir.blogspot.com/2014/04/consejo-mundial-para-el-desarrollo-y- la.html
The greatest event in history is approaching, Maitreya, Jesus and other teachers are about to arrive to advise humanity:
http://nuevaeconomiaycompartir.blogspot.com.ar/2013/07/una-sintesis-de-la-aparicion-de.html
http://nuevaeconomiaycompartir.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/la-ayuda-de-maitreya-esta-muy-cerca.html
http://nuevaeconomiaycompartir.blogspot.com.ar/2016/03/resumen-del-blog-el-desafio-de-crear-un.html
https://www.amazon.com/Nueva-Era-Econom%C3%ADa-Sociedad-Sabidur%C3%ADa-ebook/dp/B07239C47R
1
Typical NYT journalist misses the point entirely.
Free trade requires all parties involved to have open markets governed by clearly defined rules. The US has been the only major economy to deal this way .... Europe has run a close second to the US with respect to open markets. Japan is far behind Europe. China has never actually been in the race, despite being in the WTO for 20 years .... Unless the same rules apply to all of the players, the game is loaded and the cheaters (China) will win.
Consider that Chinese GDP has grown by a factor 10x since 2000 ($1.2 trillion in 2000 to $12+ trillion now). Clinton, Bush and Obama all failed to check this rise. Trump, despite all of his issues, has been the only president to take a stand.
And by the way, for all of those people who decry the inflationary aspects of tariffs, check the data. Global inflation is nowhere to be found.
16
@Bill M,
The objective of the WTO is not only to reduce trade barriers but also to facilitate world economic development. Being a developing country, China has made great progress ecomomically, but its per-ca[ota GDP is only 1/6 pf that of the U.S.. That means, in trading with the U.S., an average Chinese worker has to work 6 hours for the goods and services produced in one hour by an average American worker. Some people would regard this as "unfair" exchange, though not in marketing terms. Don't they have the right to improve themselves?
8
Lately, the first rhyming couplet of Lou Reed's song "Men of Good Fortune" keeps replaying in my head.
"Men of good fortune, often cause empires to fall
While men of poor beginnings, often can't do anything at all"
There's something about Trump using the economic might of the U.S. economy to bully other countries that makes me wonder if all of us are going to take a needless fall. It feels like we're getting closer to the edge of the cliff. I hope I'm wrong.
5
@Dan I often wonder about the same thing and do not understand the part of so many men of good fortune who could but won't intervene...
1
I wished Goodman would read Peter Drucker , founder of management theory
As Drucker observed , global free trade in agricultural goods broke down a hundred years ago.
It was replaced by a system of mostly bilateral treaties with tariffs mutually negotiated
in 2001 , Drucker, predicted why the breakdown of free trade in agricultural goods had to spread to manufactured goods - as surely as night follows day
"The decline of manufacturing will trigger an explosion of manufacturing protectionism"
Peter Drucker, The next Society, The Economist
Special Report, Nov 3 , 2001
4
I just wish Goodman would read.
This article assumes that globalisation is a force for good, and that somehow, trump being trump, he is obviously misguided to go against the flow. Yet, although Trump is wrong about the solutions to globalisation many problems (the remedy), one has to wonder whether globalisation is a sustainable way forward for the future. (The problem)
Broadly speaking, there are 2 issues with globalisation: The first one is that it is a race to the bottom and a very capitalist idea in which only profit and low cost count. As such, globalisation is damaging not only to low skilled workers in high income counties, but also for poor countries that in order to develop need to protect their agricultural and industrial sector.
Secondly, there is a large environmental cost associated with globalisation. The tens of thousands of containers arriving from China every day in Los Angeles with amongst others consumer goods for Amazon and Walmart have an enormous carbon footprint. A more localised approach to consumer goods would have enormous benefits for consumers as well.
In conclusion, globalisation is a problem. Manufacturing job losses in the US and Europe, lack of development in low and middle income countries can all be explained by globalisation. As such, let us discuss how we can make globalisation work for everyone and protect the people and counties that need jobs and development the most, rather than using globalisation as a political football to attack Trump policies and world views!
24
@Yves Gerard
That's funny because I thought I was the only one who felt a sense of betrayal when fellow liberals paint me as a bigot for not going along 100% with whatever their alphas proclaim to be "beneficial" globalization. I mean everyone knows that taking advantage of a person's sub-standard living conditions to coax them into working for slave like wages is the altruistic thing to do right? Please don't even mention the environmental repercussions since its well known in liberal circles you are encouraged to voice support for protecting the environment yet are not expected to actually do anything meaningful that prevents the destruction thereof. Please pardon me if I'm confused about what liberalism actually stands for.
10
@Mike
As a card carrying liberal I official let u go from our club. You can join the Republicans and “win”.
@mike exactly! Protectionism is the new old socialism evil! Whereas actually it makes sense to want to protect your own workers as well the environment. What’s the point of producing cheap goods if there is no one to buy them? That is exactly what is going to happen if government does not intervene to regulate globalisation and to encourage home grown production of goods.
And whilst we are at it let’s look at technology. What’s the point of the latest automation technology if it leaves many people behind?
Democrats need to find answers to these problems as well. Globalisation and technological change conséquences need to be addressed. Government needs to intervene, which probably means taxation in order to provide a level playing field.
Ps: im no socialist. Im just someone that is really worried about where we are heading...
When corporate headquarters get moved from NY to Mumbai and the CEO makes 200K instead of 20M, you can call it global free trade.
When finance and legal get moved from Manhattan to Singapore and accounting from Chicago to Seoul, you can call it global free trade.
When we’re buying dramatically cheaper pharmaceuticals from Canada and seniors are free to use Medicare overseas - all at a substantial savings to the federal government - then you can call it global free trade.
When kids pay 1K/year in tuition because English-speaking PhDs from the subcontinent teach interactive seminars via teleconference for a small fraction of a college professor’s salary, then you can call it global free trade.
But as long as only working class labor markets get globalized while professional class labor markets and many classes of industry continue to enjoy good old-fashioned protectionism, spare me the fake news of calling the New Democrats’ economic policy global free trade.
Please report honestly and call that policy what it is: class warfare.
28
Brilliantly stated
5
"Are we devolving into a global medieval feudal society?" posits one comment. Facebook has partnered with other Silicon Valley/non-tech entities which utilize internet platforms for payments in the introduction of it's new cryptocurrency. It wasn't until I read yesterday's article similar to this one that the thought occurred to me that if consumers utilize FB Libra cryptocurrency, it is beyond punishment by the US government, as it won't be US dollar-denominated. China won't have a problem with allowing a partnership with them to avoid tariffs on their exports. Talk about what's good for the goose is good for the gander--now the US headquartered manufacturers will be cut out as middlemen, since the actual product manufacturing is situated there. Mitch McConnell's wife's family owns shipping companies situated in trade in both countries. Do you think that the Kushner/Trump clan will have a problem putting US-owned mfgrs out of business for their own profit (through import/export companies)? Facebook won't be penalized then with tariffs. The Trump supporters will like that he's "sticking it to the greedy US capitalists" while shopping online through Facebook for cheaper products just like they did previously at Wal-Mart and Dollar Stores.
1
One of the most trouble things for a business are regulations and laws which are not consistent or frequently change. It means it is very hard to make long term or even medium term plans. It means spending money which would otherwise go into the business or the pockets of employees and owner to meet ever changing regulations. It means companies are more likely struggle to stay viable instead of being able to innovate and attract and nurture the best talent. Consistency, stable regulations, and honest justice system ruled by laws instead of fiat to settle business disputes is what largely separates successful states and countries from unsuccessful ones. Well that and resources. We have the resources and still mostly have an honest justice system, but the other two legs are quite wobbly at the moment.
2
Well, that's what happens when you have a back-water President and a Senate that has a vocabulary of one word:
"NO!"
You become a backwater, swampy, country.
It's like Forrest Gump said: "Stupid is as stupid does!"
Next time, stop thinking that folk are real smart just because they are rich.
They probably swiped it.
7
@rosa
We won't become a "backwater" as long as there is money to spend and money to be made. As we live our lives in this country through consumerism, companies will always want in.
@Fernando As long as there is someone to always finance your spending, this works. But with tax revenue falling (from tax cuts), it won't take all that long for all the US Government revenue to be spent on interest payments. At that point, you are a long way down the road to being a backwater!
2
"Globalization Is Moving Past the U.S. and Its Vision of World Order"
Does mean liberal and progressive thinkers will stop making fun of working class folks who shop for deals at Walmart?
Who would have thought that shopping there is the sign of a geopolitical forward thinker.
7
@Jp It might mean that the folks shopping there will soon be joined by others who can't afford the now really expensive stuff which hits many other stores.
4
Nobody makes fun of shoppers. Progressives think Walmart workers should earn a living wage.
9
@Zejee
Hah
"Just went to a southern Virginia Walmart. I could SMELL the Trump support...."
A text from Peter Strzok, dated August 26, 2016. From a list of "text messages of a political nature commenting on Trump and Clinton" by Strzok and Lisa Page quoted in the IG report at pages 399-400.
3
With 5% of humanity America has 24% of the world's nominal annual GDP.
With 18% of humans China has the world's 2nd nominal GDP. But there are 4x as many Chinese as there are Americans. Thus on a per capita basis China ranks #80 near Bulgaria and the Dominican Republic.
While Japan has the nominal annual world 3rd GDP, it has only a tenth of China's population. Thus Japan has among the highest per capita incomes on Earth.
Both China and Japan are aging and shrinking nations with below replacement level birthrates.
And enduring innate ethnic Han Chinese and Nippon Japanese supremacist bigotry, prejudice and xenophobia discourages any immigrants who are not Han nor Nippon.
2
@Blackmamba You study the nominals too much. I am an American PhD economist/engineer working in Europe. You have to look at purchasing power--what the local currency buys. I also teach in China & know the Chinese are by far the largest buyers of new autos, meaning that while the average Chinese lives something like in Eastern Europe, their middle classes could be from any of the more affluent US cities. And they have as many billionaires as we, although with 4x the population, as you point out.
5
@James Beckman
Economics is not a science.
Economists are not scientists.
There are too many unknowns and variables to craft the double-blind controlled experimental tests that provide predictable and repeatable results.
Economics is gender, color aka race, ethnicity, national origin, sociology, politics and history plus arithmetic.
I am underwhelmed by your Phony Doctor.
There is no Nobel Prize in Economic Science. There is the Swedish National Bank Prize in Memory of Alfred Nobel.
2
@James Beckman
The cliché is that there are lies, damn lies and statistics forms the base of your 'analysis'.
1
Let's all pay farmers to scratch their beards and become welfare queens. Soon, we'll all be eating Brazilian corn and Canadian potatoes. China will do just fine because they grew connections into every facet of the world including the USA. America is passé and strangly irrelevant. The UK trade model of centuries ago failed then and now.
There will be a Cold War between China and the U.S.A. regardless of who the next president will be. China will stop at nothing to succeed (which is their “right” as they see it) and the U.S. will continue to be suspicious and push back (also their “right”).
The two countries were always strange bedfellows and the last 20-30 years represent probably the greatest strategic miscalculation in American history. But of course, nobody wanted Mao Pt.2, which was looking plausible in 1989, so increased economic ties made sense then...and corporate greed is a powerful force.
Beyond that, I’ll never understand Trump trashing of our allies. That’s just amazingly stupid to me and it seems like exhibit A in Trump being a Russian asset.
11
Not one work about the wholesale theft by China of western technology. Why is that?
4
It’s not theft if you agree to it. Companies saw the savings in labor costs and decided it was worth the knowledge transfer. It was a choice, and they chose wrong.
5
Make America small
Who trusts us anymore under these grifters?
4
"Globalization did not happen by government design..."!!?
To quote your own fact checkers, that is at best "misleading."
Nafta? Developed under W, signed by Bill Clinton? Ross Perot saying it would mean flushing millions of jobs down the toilet?
TPP? Not political?
Globalization was 100% by government design.
8
Globalization is from a Big Business and governments working together. unfortunately its bad cause it raises the Food, and materials for countries like USA. Not to mention it takes employment over sees for cheap labor.
This is silly. There is no one def. of globalization and no consensus that it even exists. This is simply another anti-Trump editorial.
4
Globalization will weaken individual countries but bigger nations like Communist China, USA, Canada could weaponize it like China did and will continue to do over rare earth materials. The individual people pay more in food and material due to large exports in addition to Bank And hedge fund speculation driving cost up for all people. Its problematic when Individuals are forced to pay more in fuel , Food, medication, etc the old saying is its market price the real saying is FRAUD THEFT. CORRUPTION IN WALLSTREET TO ALL OVER OTHER NATIONS. Our nation has been financially abused by Big Banks foreign countries taking advantage of our generosity for multiple decades in addition to our Government tax the people to death. Look fuel tax, states claiming bankruptcy not paying PENTION obligation to its workers. The oil speculation needs to end if we are Americans why export fuel when millions are being injured by struggling to pay the speculation fees driven up deliberately by Banks, Hedge fund Companies charging egregious fees.
2
I believe we should search history for stasis economies for valuable comparisons.
Islands seem to be the most informative as the populations would naturally seek a balance without outside interference.
Could we have a stasis economy globally?
Isn't that is what we are heading for with all the global corporates connected? Because one hand would wash the other. But as shown with our current tax laws for corporates, the law is constantly adjusted higher there and lower here to allow for weather catastrophes, shipping mishaps, pirating, desperate people axing oil pipelines for fuel, the necessity of expending huge accumulations of armament on unnecessary populations, selling cel phones the users have to recharge at a fee, and the glorious delight of buying water when the truck arrives.
Mr Goodman is correct with his statement that: " American administrations forged rules governing disputes, enabling countries to trade with diminished fear of capricious political intervention. In ceding this role, Mr. Trump has weakened the rules-based trading system..." The USA setup globalization to encourage stability around the world but also gave away the farm to encourage globalization (e.g., Marshall Plan, rebuilding of Japan's economy after WWII, WTO, NAFTA, etc.). We opened up our economy, but many nations did not open up their economies at the same level. It is time for a reset. If German and Japan want to keep a trade surplus (i.e., year after year), in exporting cars, they need to open up other avenues of trade. The same with China. The US is subsidizing the Belt and Roads initiative and keeping low wage Chinese employed that prevents civil unrest. Meanwhile China is stealing all our commercial and military secrets so they can dominate the world. I wonder what globalization and free trade would look like if China gets the upper hand. What I hear in the media is the US is upsetting free trade, but I do not hear much about setting up a fair trade system.
5
Trump has no actual understanding of international trade, economics, or history. He is a vacuum acting on impulse, susceptible to the last piece of advice he just heard fifteen minutes ago.
Too often he reverses himself sometimes in outright opposite direction from what he just set out to do.
The erratic actions of the United States in the geopolitical arena are only accelerating the arrival of the day when the US Dollar will stop being the reserve currency of the world.
The British empire fell, and after WWII the Pound Sterling stopped being the reserve currency of the world.
The world leadership role of the United States is in decline, but I argue Trump is not the cause, he is only helping this process.
The world-wide changes noted in the article are the symptoms of a bigger problem, which is the increasingly unsustainable concentration of global capital and multinational political might in fewer and fewer hands.
Monetizing for profit all natural resources and human labor makes it harder for the working people around the world to get out of debt even as they work longer hours.
The relentless increase of human stress around the world is producing more frequent acts of violence everywhere, and also anomie.
oz.
9
I have to admit that I did not read all of the 53 comments, but of the ones I did read, who are for high tariffs and are opposed to free trade, there is an absence of the role of the American consumer.
The American consumer is supporting a Global Economy with what they are willing to pay.
To those who are pounding the table for restrictively high tariffs, I would ask, how many of you own an iPhone?
8
It's not just that globalization is moving past the U.S. , The whole world is moving past the U.S.
Hyper-myopia concentrated on relatively small internal difficulties makes us look ridiculous.
These trumped-up issues are inflated to bursting point and then infused with so much childish fear that it would make 'Chicken Little ' blush .
And other countries don't care , the're not even slightly sympathetic about border problems or white marginalization in the richest country in the world.
'America first' is not a bad thing . but to broadcast it with such bombast , just looks self-serving. And leaders shouldn't ever appear to be selfish.
If the country that leads the free world can only think of itself, The world will return the favor and simply start planning a world without us.
21
We have moved on and unfortunately for the US, we are intentionally looking for solutions that exclude the US.
6
The sort of Brussels version of mandated "globalization" is what Trump stopped for the US.
Let China, India, the EU et al. build whatever version of "globalization" they wish and stomp on each other as they wish. But world-trade globalization goes back at least as far as the Silk Road and that will remain so going forward.
"Globalization" without the US is like the UN without the US--nice stage but not much else. So don't expect too much from the sans-US iteration of Brussels "globalization".
3
@Alice’s Restaurant
This is exhibit A for American hubris.
While,it’s true that US is the pre-eminent global economic powerhouse , it’s share of the global market is receding and within a decade or two,the global epicenter would be shifted eastwards.
Alas,America’s body politic is too myopic to see this
“What does appear to be ending is the post-World War II era in which the United States championed global trade as immunization against future conflict, selling the idea that the free exchange of goods was a pathway toward a more stable world order.”
That’s a totally made up theory regarding the economic policies of the US in the post-war era. The first order of business was to rebuild Europe. We did it free of charge not out of a desire to create a new world economic order in which there would be “free trade” but for the containment of the USSR. Europe never repaid the debt. With the fall of the Soviet Union there was no longer a need to prop up European governments which by that time were able to stand on their own and even to threaten us with their growing economic power. There never was any free trade with Europe, but even before the EEU they always protected their own industry and agriculture. The biggest loser during this period was the USA. Even now Germany does not pay its full share of the dues it owes for NATO, but continues to mooch off us as it pursues its independent policies with Russia and China, and it did so long before Trump came into office. He just signaled that the party is over.
4
@Edward - the post-WW2 reconstruction of Europe was intended precisely to create a stable world order and immunize against future conflict. Yes, containment of the USSR was also an aim, but fundamentally it was based on the understanding that crushing reparations imposed on Germany after WW1 led to the rise of fascism and to WW2. Global trade was integral to this strategy. There is pretty good evidence that it worked. At least, so far.
5
You’re totally making that up. Containment of Russia was not just an incidental “aim” that was subordinate to free trade. It was the main goal. “Free trade” instead of punitive sanctions was not even a consideration because all of Europe was on its knees at the time and had nothing to “trade.” Thanks to us, Europe emerged from its dependency by the sixties, but there never was an idea that the concept of sovereign nationhood would be replaced by globalism in which mega-corporations would dictate economic policy instead of democratic nations. We did not spend our blood and treasure for that purpose.
2
Yes, we created a new economic world order of capitalist free exchange to contain the Soviet Union which was trying to creat a new economic world order of communist central planning. It’s the same thing. Economic warfare is much more effective and efficient than military warfare. And we won. We won for so long that we got used to it and decided to pretend to be the losers instead in order to justify our want for even more.
How do you have globalization absent free movement of goods and people? We may be witnessing the failure of the failure of the latest attempt at globalization. Recall the previous attempt failed with WWI.
I support globalization but in my darker moments I think it may be just the latest project of the European Enlightenment to try to create a universal civilization based on reason. It will likely fail as all the other such previous projects have failed. Immanuel Kant may have had the better of the argument when he wrote “Out of the crooked timber of humanity no straight thing was ever made.”
2
It's not "Trump has ironically bolstered China’s mode of operation — one in which bottom-line concerns take precedence over labor and environmental standards, while national interests eclipse general principles.", as that is Trumps mode of operation. He's a bottom line guy who doesn't care how he gets a good bottom line, only that he does.
1
Globalization is not moving past U.S., it is U.S. taking backward steps to redirect the Globalization. For example, China cannot continue to enjoy the benefits given to developing nations. India also should be soon out of that category. The true globalization can only be achieved by limiting development efforts only to underdeveloped nations. The national security interest also should prevail and that dictates that the supply chain shift to friendly nations, preferably to democratic nations. Tarrifs may not be the best solution, but Democrats have to come up with better plans to properly steer the Globalization.
3
Everyone is working around us as Trump builds walls and burns bridges.
Meanwhile, China is building inroads everywhere, investing, developing, snapping up trading ports, and being the good trading partners the US used to be before Trump came along.
We regress and the world passes us by.
Heck, we could be investing in the future, but Trump is still stuck on coal, taking away civil rights, and overturning Roe v Wade. Trump has no vision -- just a fantasy of how Great the 50s were.
8
@D.A.Oh You are correct and I agree for the most part, except China was not the good trading partner you claim it to be. It required foreign companies to turn over their trade secrets to an opaque system with little IP protection. The TPP was intended to allow other countries to unite as a counterweight to China, but Individual-1 killed it.
1
"Good" trading partners. Unlike a Trump, China pays its debts and invests instead of bullying, conning, welching and demanding compliance through its army (of lawyers).
China understands that it is not alone in this world and that it can ONLY be a world power if the rest of the world is healthy and wealthy enough to keep feeding it -- the basic economic symbiosis famously illustrated by Henry Ford paying his workers enough to allow them to afford his automobiles.
As for their villainy, don't forget:
1) those foreign companies were not forced to set up shop in China but CHOSE to access cheap labor and the growing Chinese market. They signed off on handing over tech on their own; apparently that was a price they thought worth paying at some point.
2) China is still coming back from a lowpoint that was forced on them by the gunboat diplomacy of Western imperialists (incl. the USA) and the subsequent series of "unequal treaties" (Google that Chinese-specific term) that ruined the Qing, and turned China into a penniless backwater. Any advantages they have sought in trading with the Western countries that had ushered in a "century of humiliation" (with poverty, anarchy, civil war, famine) seems fair game to me.
Look. China's not going to be held back anymore, so Trump's efforts are misguided and causing grave self-harm.
China offered him numerous ways out of his trade war folly because they know they are better off if everyone is better off, but Trump is set on hurting us all.
2
look at what tariffs are doing - US Steel announced that it is closing three blast furnaces.
is this what trump is bringing? short term elation in exchange for long term destruction?
higher pricing does impact demand.
starting in 2018, trump has been touting the "restorative value of hid tariffs"
“steel is coming back fast!” “these industries, it’s incredible what’s going on. us steel is building many plants and expanding many plants.”
the only thing showing growth is the tally of trump's lies and the obvious lack of knowledge on now business works outside of his real estate business where corruption rules the process and bankruptcy or default on loans follows.
is this what we want for the United States?
11
The world has always been global. The Roman Republic and Empire traded with Africa, South East Asia and what is now China. The famous Silk Road is a formal title to a trade route that began, before the Romans, before the Greeks and even before the Persians. Even today's Hermit Kingdom, North Korea, has global trade. We can either be a player on the global stage or turn our backs and sit in the corner while the rest of the world moves ahead. North Korea remains the best example of a country that is tries to be insular, poor in every way and this is the path the Trump Administration is the US down and using the same rhetoric that the North Korean leaders say to their people.
4
As a friend (who speaks fluent Mandarin and good-enough Cantonese, and who is a manufacturers’ representative between U.S. and Chinese companies) said, China is running circles around the U.S. everywhere in the world — particularly in Africa. They pretty much own that continent now. Even if trump had knowledgeable financial advisors, there’s still nothing that the U.S. could do to outpace China around the world. We spend our money on our engorged military. As it is, trump obviously hasn’t spoken to a person with any financial sense — or maybe he just hasn’t heard what they’ve tried to din into his ears. He got hired on some balmy story and he’s got to keep flogging it.
8
Much has been said about how to Trump is accelerating US decline, and nowhere is this better demonstrated. His attempts to withdraw the US from the global system will result in the rest of the world coming up quicker with other solutions.
Globalization has benefited billions, and is unlikely to be reversed. The US has championed it and can however slow it down in the short-term, hurting everyone including itself.
7
"What does appear to be ending is the post-World War II era in which the United States championed global trade as immunization against future conflict, selling the idea that the free exchange of goods was a pathway toward a more stable world order."
Rubbish! In Pivotal Decade, Judith Stein details how our trade policy went off the rails in the 1970s, mostly on Carter and Reagan's watch. (For all his faults, Nixon tried to manage trade--perhaps one of the reasons, with wage and price controls, why Noam Chomsky calls him the last New Deal president.)
Since the Marshall Plan, the US has offered free trade for exports into the US, not imports from the US, in exchange for foreign and military policy concessions. Bad enough. The ensuing globalization hast meant vast wealth for the well-heeled financial industry and devastation for the working class. Thus, wage income in the US has falled from 67% post WWII to 55% today, and the Fed's new overriding mandate is preservation of asset value.
Of course, the US can reverse globalization. No 10 countries offer the economic demand of the US, and we still retain the capacity to satisfy this demand ourselves.
"Free" trade, as we have practiced it, is sustained only as long as Rs and neolib Ds perpetuate it. Maybe it's all Lighthizer, but, on trade, Trump beats all of the Ds except Sanders and Warren.
1
Globalization is necessary if we are to survive to coming decades but we must clarify what needs to be globalized and what has been globally destructive. The consolidated power of global corporations, of money and its influence has not been a good thing for working people or for the biosphere in which life depends. We are witnessing a rejection of this in "brexit" and nationalism.
On the other hand, the globalization of communication, of the struggle for labor rights, and of the growing movement against the inseparable issues of climate destruction, war, and imposed economic neoliberalism is what gives us any chance of survival, much less of the preservation and advance of civilization. This struggle is evident in Europe, Asia and in our own elections as the failure of corporate centrism gives way to the rise of both neofascist nationalism and internationalist, eco-socialist democracy. The big money is on the former as it seeks to defend an obsolete model of competitive nation-states but the rest of us, recognizing our inter-dependence and the realities of a growing climate catastrophe, are pushing for a free and livable world.
6
@Al M
This is a very interesting comment. May I commend you for the breadth of your remarks, and suggest that more writing like this would be very useful and welcome.
1
@Allan
Thank you, I've written, and been published on this for a local paper in the past. The article here:
https://almarkowitz.blogspot.com/2017/06/a-declaration-of-interdependence.html
What has the WTO done to reduce air pollution in China. Again, it is always fun to dislike what Trump is doing. However, it is also realistic to point out that previous administrations and the WTO did virtually nothing to stop Chinese rules violations. Trump will only be President for another year and a half. Chinese circumvention of WTO rules will continue.
3
@William-China has closed down thousands of high polluting factories. They are the world leader in solar power and electric vehicles.
They have added more electrified public transportation in the last 10 years than any country on the planet.
9
@HLthey are also world leaders in the use and export of coal technology. Air pollution in China is as bad as ever. The Rust Belt in the US has accomplished more in air pollution reduction.
3
The donor class in the US, which controls the political class, has put its profits above all else for decades. For some time, a key to their profits was globalization of labor markets, where jobs were moved from high wage countries to low wage countries.
And yes, globalization HAS happened by political design Mr. Goodman, and it can be dismantled by political actions, as you detail throughout the article. All these trade agreements made the globalized labor market possible.
But neither party has been much inclined to help the average working stiff hurt by these changes. Is it any wonder that those overlooked workers have decided that the whole system needs to be burned down?
It is unfortunate that Trump’s inability to work with allies means that the US in unilaterally disarming in the global trade system, leaving China and the EU as the dominant players.
But at least he is aware that there IS a problem, which is more than one can say for nearly all Republicans and all but a very few Democrats.
Figuring out a credible way to distribute the benefits of globalization to all Americans would be a good way to defeat Trump. All the Democrats have to do is find a credible plan and standard bearer.
FYI: The Democratic candidates who have spent the past few weeks feeding at the corporate cash trough are NOT credible standard bearers.
6
Instead of coercing and cajoling bad trade actors like China to play fair we are now trying to bully them, and everyone else, to give us special treatment. This has the effect of uniting trading countries against us and is bad for our economy as well as the world's. The problem with the current system is inequality on returns. The rich don't want to share their gains with the underclasses of the midwestern states but instead of embracing social policy to ensure the benefits are spread among the people they lash out and elect a bully to lead them and that's why they will continue to fail. The greatest problems China and the midwestern and rust belt states are cultural. Hopefully, we'll get far more sensible and fair leadership in the future and shove some socialist medicine down the throats of midwestern folks so they can heal. As for China, we'll need a more united front to get them to trade fair and make full use of WTO rules to get them to comply, if there's anything left of it after the bully gets removed.
5
The domination of the US of the world economy was based on the fact that the US served as the hub for all those economical activities. What Trump is doing is destroying that hub.
The country that figures this out first and moves to establish that hub within its own confines will come out the huge winner of Trump's destruction.
There are only two contenders: China or the EU.
If I were a European leader, I would hustle to do two things:
1) Establish a banking system that circumvents and isolates the US banking system, making sure that global money streams through the EU, not through the US.
2) Establish the EU as the trade node through which global goods exchange flows.
After all, the EU is larger than the US with respect to population. The US constitutes only 5% of the world's population and if it wants to isolate itself, those 5% can be easily ignored, especially since US GDP would plummet, as the two conditions I have state above come into effect.
That change would then be irreversible, the US would be isolated for the foreseeable future and descend to a second tier economy.
If China turns out to become the hub, it will dominate the world forever, economically and politically. That is more than scary!
Well done, Trump voters!
18
@Kara Ben Nemsi Perhaps that is a key feature of Russian support for anti-EU anti-immigrant fake populists.
1
Globalization is the natural economic byproduct of efficient transportation and communication, and arises out of the natural forces of capitalism. If it goes away, capitalism leaves with it.
That being said, trade should be conducted fairly, with "fairly" being quite subjective. China clearly does not play fair and we need to confront it. To most effectively do so, we should confront them as a coalition of economic powers and have a knowledeable, thoughtful leader with good negotiating skills. Trump is not that guy. First, he has no knowledge of the subject and has a limited capacity to think. Second, he decided to go it alone. Third, his negotiating skills are non-existant. He's basically a goon and a bully, but nearly everyone calls his bluff.
What we need is to remove Trump, reconnect with our historical allies, and have a non-clow n negotiate a trade deal. To do that, we must all do our best to male sire Trump is a one term president. If we fail, Russia's plan to ruin democracy may come to fruition and the United States may become an isolated, friendless country who's only exports will be hate, racism and ignorance. The three pillars of the Republican party.
5
@Jim Dennis How does China not play fair? How does the US play fairer? Making a good deal for oneself, e.g. China, is NOT unfair, any more than making a bad deal is unfair! I think at worst, the US is guilty of making some very bad deals, while China has made some good ones.
How else should we explain the fact that China is RICH compared with "the richest country on the planet," and not only that, that China owns most US debt, which is very close to saying "China OWNS the US?"
I think the US needs to learn to make much better deals with the world, rather than whining about how "we are not being treated fairly."
Clearly, WE are responsible for that, NOT OTHERS.
3
@Richard Savary
Actually, the biggest beneficiary of the Chinese model of trade are multinational companies (mostly American) such as Apple and GM. They have taken the lion's share of the profits as a result of exploiting cheap Chinese labour, lax environmental regulations, cheap raw materials (through Chinese government subsidies) etc. While China has its regulations that aim to protect their own industries, the US likewise has similar policies (farm subsidies, subsidies for solar panels and electric vehicles, limits on foreign investments in certain sectors for "national security" reasons etc.) that they don't talk about.
@Adrian - What globalism taught us is that American workers are not quite as valuable as they thought they were. And you are right that large corporations don't care about that. That's what you get with capitalism run amok. But what are the options? Isolationism, where the rest of the world advances and leaves us behind? Do we add (evil) regulations to corporations? Or do we turn the WTO into something functional? There will be no easy answer, but something is happening as we watch.
"But the rest of the planet is increasingly refusing to play along, instead seeking alternatives to trade with a suddenly mercurial United States." When you play current events forward, it would appear that Trump and his Republicans are trying to turn America into a larger version of France or Spain - with much worse food and public transportation. Don't get me wrong - I love France and Spain as they are great places to visit and even live full time if you have enough money, but while these countries are "important" they are clearly second tier economic powers. That is where we are heading within a few generations, especially as our own working population ages and we are having fewer children (we are now below replacement numbers) at the same time that rabid nativist furor discourages immigrants from coming here.
4
@Jason Shapiro, Why must we remain an economic super power forever? Our day in the sun is setting just as the British Empire. And there is nothing wrong with zero population growth here and elsewhere. We can't just keep growing the human population for the sake of economic growth alone. It is untenable and bad for the planet. And anything that discourages immigrants is welcome right about now. We do not need more and more people. The population of this country has more than doubled in my lifetime alone. Enough already.
3
Globalization is the natural economic byproduct of efficient transportation and communication, and arises out of the natural forces of capitalism. If it goes away, capitalism leaves with it.
That being said, trade should be conducted fairly, with "fairly" being quite subjective. China clearly does not play fair and we need to confront it. To most effectively do so, we should confront them as a coalition of economic powers and have a knowledeable, thoughtful leader with good negotiating skills. Trump is not that guy. First, he has no knowledge of the subject and has a limited capacity to think. Second, he decided to go it alone. Third, his negotiating skills are non-existant. He's basically a goon and a bully, but nearly everyone calls his bluff.
What we need is to remove Trump, reconnect with our historical allies, and have a non-clow n negotiate a trade deal. To do that, we must all do our best to male sire Trump is a one term president. If we fail, Russia's plan to ruin democracy may come to fruition and the United States may become an isolated, friendless country who's only exports will be hate, racism and ignorance. The three pillars of the Republican party.
4
This seems to me a sobering and realistic view of the state of industrialization and trade. Retreat into a purely nationalist state, politically or economically, seems nearly impossible, and if it succeeded, would isolate America from world markets as well as from competition from foreign capital. If there's a surer way to end American competitiveness it the world, it's difficult to discern.
2
Under Reagan and Clinton the US exported inflation and pollution to China and imported consumer goods. Our economy hummed along with low inflation, higher paying service jobs and store shelves full of relatively low cost consumer goods.
We were very rich. For 1 year we actually stopped deficit spending to finance our government. We blew a couple of trillion on wars. We bankrupted the world with a housing crisis brought on by deregulation.
We had slowly crawled out of that hole under a handcuffed President Obama.
We aren't just in a trade war, we have troops on the move and we are ratcheting up rhetoric in the ME. Bond markets around the globe are telegraphing recession. We are using the USD as a weapon against competitors and allies. We have abandoned the rule of law both at home and globally.
We are heading for an economic disaster and war if we don't change leadership. It's never been more clear. We don't have to look toward ancient history to see it. It took Bush Jr. 8 years to destroy our country. Trump is doing it in 1 term. Bush Jr. at least dealt with a real attack on our country. Trump is doing it out of fake personal grievances.
He has to be removed in the next election.
46
If Globalization was working as well as the author claims in the developed world you wouldn't have Donald trump or Brexit.
I have to ask since I have NEVER heard an adequate explanation. How exactly is destroying the middle class and big chunks of the working class by shipping their jobs to the third world and leaving them with the dregs of jobs a benefit to the nation or society? Globalization hasn't brought the rest of the world to our level instead it has been a race to the bottom. Effectively we are reducing the Developed world to the 3rd world. The US is starting to look like Peru when i fought there. 1% of the population owning everything worth a micro sized middle class all built upon a seething mass of peasants with no stake and no interest in the system. All the peasants had was a great deal of hate. I see great similarities in the developed world today.
One last simple question for the readers : How long until the losers of globalization (You know the folks whose backs your wonderful new world is built on) put down their tools and pick up their knives? They have no reason not to you know? They have no stake in the system nor reason not to try and destroy it. For they and their children have no stake and NO FUTURE under the current system. Why not bring it down?
I am very afraid it isn't if the blood is going to flow in the developed world, It's merely when. For the losers of globalization have no reason not to turn on the winners!
9
Your observation is accurate and your fear realistic. The problem you raise is noted in the article: “Businesses will continue to tap world markets and trade across borders — a wealth-enhancing formula, even as many major economies have failed to equitably distribute the bounty, leaving communities vulnerable to job losses.” The failure to attend to citizens affected by globalization (which was always inevitable) is known as corporate greed.
7
@Stephan
Yes, but.....
Costa Rica is a microcosm of what the world is devolving into. Wiki lauds the return of the forests--by bribing the wealthy landowners--the many western factories, the education level, the solar & wind iniatives, but.....the people have no jobs, there is a deliberate omission of mass transit, and the biggest electricity generating dam in Central America is going up in the mountains on the land of the natives. The problem WIKI does address is the huge debt and we know how that ends--the dam will collapse the economy and force public ownership--planned all along--of the electrical grid which is then restricted to the capital and the landed estates. Water improvements again restricted to the capitol.
While the people will be disenfranchised in their own land, history tells us peasants stay peasants. Its the upper class that sires its own destruction thru increased population that cannot acquire the assets of their grandparents and are the source of rebellion.
2
@Stephan
Yes, but.....
Costa Rica is a microcosm of what the world is devolving into. Wiki lauds the return of the forests--by bribing the wealthy landowners--the many western factories, the education level, the solar & wind iniatives, but.....the people have no jobs, there is a deliberate omission of mass transit, and the biggest electricity generating dam in Central America is going up in the mountains on the land of the natives. The problem WIKI does address is the huge debt and we know how that ends--the dam will collapse the economy and force public ownership--planned all along--of the electrical grid which is then restricted to the capital and the landed estates. Water improvements again restricted to the capitol.
I'm old enough to remember when we said "clever these Japanese" when contemplating their imports. But then I remember when we said "whoa, their government is subsidizing them to our disadvantage." Their rich corporations were buying up our companies and real estate.
Fast forward to today when the same can be said about China. Next it will be India. With their large populations these countries represent huge markets for our goods, but will they keep us out? Rather than ramping up our tariffs and tough guy persona around the world, it's time for some real negotiations in a more diplomatic atmosphere.
Lest we find ourselves the odd man out.
6
You are wrong. We will lower our wages and do other jobs. I believe that farming, logging, mining, elder care, hotel housekeeping, sewage treatment, and running amusement park rides are safe for now.
4
@Richard Bourne
Note that the article says 70% jobs in US are service sector so eliminate farming and mining, keep aide positions.
2
@Richard Bourne
And they have such a future ? And people wonder why Trump got elected?
I don't have a problem with tariffs. I do have a problem with Trump waking up in the morning and deciding that he'll put tariffs on Weejis from Wuxland because he misunderstood something Sean Hannity was braying about on Fox News.
Too much power is in the hands of the President when he gets to determine what tariffs go on which products from what countries. This is the fault of Congress and, ultimately, the American people.
24
It is dangerously naive to morally equate other cultures with ours. We are all flawed but some cultures are more deeply flawed, more morally corrupt, than ours. That is why we have and must occasionally use weapons of self defense, including weapons of economic defense. Economists and others can debate their effectiveness in various contexts, but it helps us to have them and sometimes use them.
4
It’s very simple. China has been ripping us off as a matter of state policy.
I remember at my company we manufactured advanced control electronics for their high speed rail trains.
First we were forced to partner with a local state owned company for access to their market (we don’t do this to Chinese companies wanting to access the US market).
Then, the government issued a fake safety inspection on our manufacturing facility, their police confiscated our electronics. Next thing we knew, our electronics were returned all dissembled and reverse engineered and showing up in local competitors products. We lost our competitive advantage and lost American jobs because of this.
This isn’t new stuff. This happened over a decade ago and still happens to this day. It’s also systemic. Past Presidents haven’t done a thing. Only Trump has. Congress is useless and you can’t blame Trump for playing the only card he has - tariffs. So far it has worked in bringing China to the negotiating table. No deal has been made but Trump has made more progress in protecting America from China’s illegitimate economic behavior than all the past Presidents combined.
Liberals have to live with that and try to explain to blue collar workers how to hate Trump anyway.
36
@Jay Lincoln Intellectual property theft IS a huge problem. But tariffs don't address that.
Your company was left with no market after the theft because the US is not investing in high speed rail at home! That decision is the gospel of the GOP and is favored by Dems thanks to corrupt local cartels that massively inflate new construction cost.
Instead, a high speed rail link across the rust belt and coal country would not only drive construction jobs and spin-off industries like yours, but jumpstart new forms of economic activity once built!
Note that the company was originally able to produce the parts even under free trade.
13
@Jay Lincoln
I believe it, I also believe it was planned. There is no separation of power at the top, its global.
Every scheme has a time limit, usually 20 years, and a new scheme replaces it.
Now we're going to see Central America sourced to globalists who dispossess the mountain people for hydro dams for the capital cities. Employment in factories owned and electrified by private entities. Trade with Asia will be almost abandoned for the new build up in Central America. If you ask me, Cuba's days are numbered. We've destroyed the economies of the Middle East, leaving ashes for Russia and China, our ownership of the entire NA and SA and inbetween is next.
1
@Jay Lincoln
It is not the use of tariffs but the bi-lateral transactional approach that Trump has employed that will limit its effectiveness. Alienating our allies and ignoring the need for a multi-state response to China, Inc. will not succeed in forcing China to comply with the rules-based order of international trade.
3
The world is waiting for Tuesday November 3, 2020.
8
We gave away our industrial jobs to Mexico and China and in turn destroyed our American middle class. There was never anything “free” about so-called free trade and globalization.
37
@Conservative Democrat
Many a study concluded that it is not true and that robots took away more jobs. There are also plenty of manufacturers in the US that wouldn't be able to produce if not cheap parts/materials coming from somewhere else. It is primarily the producers that oppose the tariffs.
Are you also counting in the cheaper goods as a result of globalisation. Taking billions worldwide out of poverty.
2
@Conservative Democrat
Question is who
gave it away? Many Americans had the chance back then to boycott manufacturers that moved the jobs elsewhere. Instead, they readily embraced paying less for everything at Walmart and the Dollar Store. Their products are cheap because offshore manufacturers pay the workers pennies on the dollar. I remember the tea party folks flocking to Walmart to buy their cheaply made American Flags. Now those very same folks who stand behind trump whine about the loss of well paying American jobs. Accept some responsibility for helping to create the situation we all find ourselves in.
9
All of this is easily predictable. trump* is motivated by only 3 things: self-aggrandizement, self-enrichment and a grinding, howling hatred of Barack Obama. That hatred drove trump* to pull out of Paris, Tehran and TPP, all of which have been to our detriment. And his need for cheering crowds to feed his ego is behind his immigration disaster. Little analysis is necessary.
26
@Mike Pod
I second that and just want to add that in my opinion it is not his ego that he feeds with the cheering crowds (although it doesn't hurt).
I think that the crowds are used to keep the Republican party in check if they had any ideas about the 25th amendment.
They might think that Pence would be just as good otherwise.
2
I am here left wondering if this is supposed to be an objective news piece or an opinion piece.
At root, most Americans with an interest in economics see the against tariffs, while recognizing the role that tariffs played in the 19th century in building American industry. What is disturbing about most of the reporting on the current economic climate, however, is that there seems to be little focus on why we are at the point where tariffs are being considered at all.
6
@Middleman MD American industry in the 19th century was built on the free labor of millions of slaves using the free land and resources taken from millions of Native Americans. Following the Civil War and despite horrendous working conditions and low wages, immigrants from all over the world came here and sustained those industries. Tariffs did not build American industry, indeed at various times they stifled and restricted its expansion.
5
The force of de-globalization cheer leading by Mr. Trump is too weak to derail the flows of global trade - the economic and financial system of the world is too powerful to minimize the underlying dynamics of business efficiency. Only disruptive action that can slowdown the global trade is the Cold War strategy to cutoff China from Western block. The chances of that happening is too little as Trump already soured US relations with other Western block countries. The current situation is a transient state as business and corporate leaders are waiting to understand the steady state US regulations to orient their supply chain. US corporations are following the business strategy by exploiting the U curve of business cycle profit margin - this is valid strategy for higher stock price. At the same time it locates the manufacturing at the low cost countries. No way this spatial breakdown of supply chain can be altered. On my view, the globalization will return to its normal state after 2020 elections, but WTO will take up upgrading its rules to protect the world trade from mercantile approaches of China and strengthening the faith on Rule based international trade.
2
Tarriffs were tools used to help developing nations build their own industries and help nations bombed to oblivion in WW2 to recover and rebuild.
These favors of the past became economic heroin for these countries and no President before Trump had the guts or nerve to cutoff the addiction.
Your money is only as good as what can be bought with it at home.
When the US makes nothing, our money becomes the same.
2
In the ‘70s our opening to China would create a Chinese economy so focused on consuming stuff they would become malleable on the world stage and create a more just and Westernized society. So what happened? We rushed to leverage a cheap, pliable and disciplined work force to manufacture and sell cheap stuff that would increase profit margins and executive compensation. Hooked on this cheap Labour, corporations willingly and with malice afore thought, began transferring technology and modern manufacturing techniques to China.
Now what have we? A resurgent and assertive China expanding in all directions, using our money to do so. A hollowed out American economy that cannot make anything its citizens need or can afford to buy. An executive and administrative class so addicted to the opioid of cheap labor and transportation costs that they can think of nothing better than blaming their predicament on a silly politician like Trump. Dumb though he is, he has by happenstance hit in something economists and business leaders have for years been trying to deny: relative to the interests of the US and its citizens, they are ethically and intellectually bankrupt. Economists love free trade because it simplifies a complex discipline. The business class loves free trade and Adam Smith’s “Dead Hand” because it justifies a wide variety of practices without regard to equity, ethics or morality.
And the more just Chinese society? Interviewed a Uighur or resident of Hong Kong lately?
13
@DEH, You exaggerate too much.
It is not "we" only. Japan, Europe
and Britain, Taiwan also have factories in China. Are they all
naive? Globalization will flourish
without USA as the example of
11 countries reaching agreement
on trans-Pacific trade after
Mr. Trump pulled out shows.China has cut tariffs for all countries except US. China's economy is about the same size as America's(Purchasing
power parity) and may catch up
on market exchange rate basis too.
It is foolish to deprive American companies access to the second
largest economy ( market exchange rate basis) and heading to be the largest. The loss will be ours and not China's although we will pretend
we are hurting China.
2
@DEH
Our media has us all wound up over global --read trans oceanic---trade all the while the globalists are taking the next step. We've commandeered the mountains in Central America and forced the people to the capital city which will be powered by hydropower from mountain top dams for private corporate companies conveniently relocated from the Asian world. It's all global remember.
Much of Trump's visions concerning bringing manufacturing jobs "back to America" are fallacies.
He, the grand businessman, toots his horn about full employment, so, where will the labor come from?
He also fails to see if many in the workforce are willing to work at jobs that may be somewhat menial, dirty, noisy and with safety risks.
Lastly, he fails to see if those in the boardrooms and at the CEO desks are willing to pay the expense of a gamble by relocating some of their manufacturing back to this country and risk losing market share due to higher prices and the uncertainty of the cost of raw materials due to the wishes and whims of Trump's war on trade.
Trump's moronic stand on trade will cost we the consumer in the end.
8
The op/ed ends with this quote that literally made me spit out my morning coffee: “This is openly violating the rules of game,” said Ms. Dhingra, the economist.”
Since when have the “rules of the game” meant anything to trading partners like China and Germany, who limit their own markets and run up huge trade surpluses at our expense?
It was time to punch pack or get knocked out.
8
@Conservative Democrat, give
data to prove your point. There are 900 American companies operating
in China. How come they are there
with all those restrictions. It is the old canard repeated against other
countries without coming to the
grip with the real reasons for our
perpetual deficit. Number one
reason for our deficit is we save little and consume too much.
Chinese and Germans save a lot.
No wonder they have surplus.
American companies locate to
other countries including China. If
they are serving local market with
the production locally, our exports
are limited.Any wonder. Thirdly, we impose restrictions on exports and investment. Comittee on Foreign Investment virtually rejects China's
investment reminiscent of the
same phenomenon on Japanese
investment in 1980s.
I think that other nations and multinational companies are going to simply adapt by shifting away from the hostile U.S. environment.
Until/unless it becomes a better place to do business with.
The main loser is the average resident of the U.S.
19
There is no probably about it. It is irreversible. The antics of the current clown in the White House may cause some disruption (most of it shooting the US in the foot) but the course is set.
36
How does climate change fit into this?
7
The US can embrace globalization because:
- It has the scale to impose adequate corporate tax, carbon tax, environmental constraints, etc.
Every multinational needs a significant presence here. Threats to leave the US market are moot.
- It taxes citizens worldwide. That is a huge advantage other countries don’t have. Rich, capital income people can’t hide from the IRS thanks to FATCA and other laws which force foreign banks to disclose bank accounts. We need to build on this.
If we close the deliberate and obvious tax loopholes for the rich our country can thrive in a global economy, everyone included not just the top 5%.
However, tax laws are under attack by corporate an billionaire owned politicians.
That said, confronting China’s trade practices was overdue. And in the absence of a common vision like the EU’s, we need to think about what the US gains from allowing our corporations to move manufacturing to Mexico without any penalty (NAFTA/USMCA). Are we really getting cheaper goods if offshored corporations are making billions every quarter?
Free trade efforts should primarily be focused on high wage countries like Japan, EU, ...
2
The writer mischaracterized Trump tariffs position. Trump tariffs are a tool to force free trade not end it. China is not a free trade country. European manufacturers benefit from protectionism policies and government subsidies. Trump is seeking real free trade not the one sided flow with strings China enjoys.
10
Elections have consequences.
NOT voting has consequences.
We get what we deserve.
6
The one thing that President Trump has done with his anti-free trade stance is make everyone else a free trader. Now even the NYT is supporting free trade! WOW!
4
This is “better than Hillary”?
7
I absolutely adore this article. America's place in the world has changed in part because many places in the world are getting better and complex. There are a few hotspots but generally democracy, education and modern healthcare has taken off in many places in Africa, Asia and the global south. For instance, many African countries have formed trade pacts with each other and that will change global trade forever. I visited Ghana 50 years ago as a volunteer. When I visited early this year, the country had made so much progress it was beyond anything I had seen. Many Americans and that includes our politicians would have to update their view of the world. Our foreign policy would have to change in that regard. I predict the coming century we would see the rise of more than one power but an aggregation of power systems across the globe.
13
@Erica
Having never left America's shores, I can only extrapolate about what comes next. I believe the African cities are building modern, that they will have electricity and often water but the line is drawn between that one example, the capital, and the rest of the nation where the electricity never seems to be reliable and water comes from the truck.
The electrical source is privatized, and even the very land the natives grow crops on is owned globally. The upshot is that the poor will continually be cut out, and the pseudo rich will have electricity and water. this is how it ends as there is nothing left to be sold, albeit the body itself and that is a foreseeable outcome. The Greeks depended on it for wealth, even when Solon introduced 'democracy.'
@Erica, It is becoming multi-polar
world. Our thinking is stuck in 1945.
1
Trump has ceded US leadership on so many key issues that the world is concluding that it must move forward without us. He is making the US irrelevant, rather than great, and narrowing our field of reliable allies.
115
"“This is now the post-American world economy, one in which globalization is much more spotty,” said Adam S. Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “The world is a riskier place, where access to markets is a lot less sure.”
Adam Posen is clearly a capitalist. He speaks as if globalization was ideal, as if being "spotty" is necessarily bad, and so that it is in decline. Well, it may be in decline, but many of us have thought it "in decline" for a long time already, in that it has been decades since it served working people even decently well. Today, it plays middle class Americans off against the poorest people in the world... To Americans,' and America's great disadvantage.
Note how Posen refers to "access to markets." THAT is a capitalist speaking! Ordinary, middle class citizens are much more interested in JOBS. Many assume that capitalists' interests are the same as ours, and that it what they want us to believe, but that's a BIG LIE.
What ARE we doing to restore middle class jobs?
It appears to me, nothing whatsoever.
20
The Democrats’ outline of a Green New Deal would create lots of US-based jobs that could not be outsourced (creating and maintaining new, renewable power sources; retrofitting old buildings; strengthening and making resilient our power grid) and position the US to be the world leader in the coming renewable energy economy.
7
@Richard Savary, you do realize that access to markets drives the need for job creation, right? When your potential customer base is limited due to lack of access, jobs are limited.
3
@Aaron
When we get access to them they get access to us and sell us their cheap products. We stop producing here, lose jobs and borrow money from them to keep buying their products.
I have lived or travelled in more than 70 countries. What I have noticed in the past few years, I measure in lobsters. Maine lobsters are prized throughout the world. After Trump came to office, Maine lobsters disappeared. I am in another country now and the only lobsters available are from Canada. It is not that I eat a lot of lobsters, but it is the one thing I truly miss from America and so I check the prices often. Throughout the world, I have noticed that American goods, once readily available, have been removed. A similar situation is happening now with British goods as Brexit moves closer. We are in a global economy, Trumps tariffs are antagonistic, but I think it will make American manufacturers rethink their supply chains. Sadly, had this happened in the 90's when most manufacturing was being shipped offshore, these actions might have made a difference, but America no longer has manufacturing facilities to fulfill the needs of manufacturers or even retailers. The result will just be higher prices and less selection for Americans. As always, America is trying to fix something (think global warming and single use plastics) after it is way too late. More nimble economies will step in. It is not 1956 and Trump's retro solutions won't work.
126
@thewriterstuff: nobody manufactures lobsters, so that can't be it.
Maybe we are KEEPING more of our Maine lobsters here in the US, to be eaten by Americans? instead of selling them abroad?
2
@Concerned Citizen In the same way you are keeping more soybeans.
19
@thewriterstuff
Agree but it is all planned. The development in Central America is going to draw a lot of factories once the mountain top hydro plants are established and privatized. Can't do commerce without reliable electricity.
The one thing capitalism does is to constantly remake itself, because, unfortunately, we human are suckers for change. The tariffs are there because the relo to Central and South America and Mexico has already happened.
We don't really have 'selections' now, we have what the marketing desires we have. Even in my little town I can buy lobster tails reasonably but cannot get spring rolls because the marketing program has a producer that does not offer spring rolls, just egg rolls.
The neoliberal, financialized globalization of the past generation was invented by a bunch of corporate lawyers. It's not a matter of physics; it can be changed. Socialists were and are famously for globalization, just of a different kind.
That trade has been global as long as humans could move stuff over long distances is of course true and will continue to be true barring a nuclear war or total collapse from climate chaos, both of which are nigh, let us not forget. Ever, as this article, like most, does. Try to find any mention of the ecological cost of any kind of globalization herein. Tell me that's any less denialist than any other global warming denialism.
That aside (it's only the fate of our civilization, maybe species), distinguish the two meanings of "globalization" and the propaganda becomes clear.
I'm sure there were deep thinkpieces in the 18thC on how slavery will just always be with us.
12
@Doug Tarnopol: a nuclear war is nigh?
Can't say unequivocally that globalization is moving past the U.S. But if we continue down the path of isolationism with these tariffs, we will fast become a non player and suffer with higher prices for our daily needs.
There are currently 53,000 merchant vessels worldwide moving goods around the globe. That's a 400% increase in the worlds merchant fleet since since 1980. That is globalization. And the fleet increases at the rate of 3.5% annually.
37
@cherrylog754
The tariff talk has expanded beyond reasonable thinking. Would the business world not do this if they had not already decided on Central America for relo?
New expanded ports, new wharf storage, this is what capitalism does, it moves in and creates new allowing huge new profiteering and abandoned the previous as the tax shelters were exhausted.
I mean, this would all be correct if we didnt already have tariffs placed upon us in the first place. We are trying to even out an uneven playing field. Fact: We havent placed tariffs on a country that didnt already have unfair tariffs on us.
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@Don Q Oh, so which countries already had "unfair tariffs" on us? How are they unfair? Most tariffs are levied to protect certain industries, and so jobs. I'm not sure that tariffs which do that can be considered unfair.
I for one happen to think that jobs, American jobs, are the bottom line, even more than profits...
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@Don Q: if they put tariffs on OUR goods....all is well.
If we put tariffs on THEIR goods...it's the end of the world! and all Trump's fault!
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What is most astonishing was the speed of decline: before 2008, absolutely nobody thought the USA would ever not be the sole and undisputed superpower; after 1991, people thought History itself had ended -- such was the pro-capitalist euphoria with the desintegration of the USSR.
I was born and raised around this time, being from the first truly post-Cold War generation. I remember I thought (and I was far from being alone) the USA would last at least one thousand years more. The question was not if its global leadership was to be ever contested, but if you managed to learn English and immigrate to the USA (with the famous "Green Card" being the Holy Grail). I'm sure every Latin American thought the same way.
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While it might feel right to say that no one before 2008 thought the US was in decline, scholars and students of political economy have been debating this topic for decades.
Walt Rostow, in a world economy seminar back in 1992, asked his students to debate the topic. A conference room full of students from around the world argued “yes” or “no” while Ross Perot announced his candidacy and the Rodney King riots broke out.
The best answer in the room in 1992 was that it doesn’t matter whether the US is or isn’t in decline - it’s the perception of that stifles growth. Rostow, almost 80 at the time, jumped off his chair and asked, “how do we measure perception?” Everyone’s still working on that one almost 30 years later, as evidenced by this opinion mosaic. Let’s see scholarship, not web links.
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@VK Your expectations for the longevity of American society are optimistic at very least. The US seems incapable of acting rationally, and that's a bad sign. We are out of step with the world. We believe in extreme economic inequality (which is what capitalism creates and promotes), and economic inequality IS instability.
We'll be lucky to last another 100 years.
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@VK: yeah, and if you ever visit here....maybe you'll see what all that immigration (legal and illegal) has done to the US, and it ain't pretty.
BTW: we don't want to be "world's undisputed superpower AND world policeman" -- all on OUR dime -- anymore.
You want China to rule over you? be my guest. Hope that makes y'all very happy.
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Perhaps it's time to "redefine" globalism. It does not mean fairness and warm fuzzy relationships. It never has, in fact. That was the fantasy of globalists who wanted to define the globe in their vision.
In reality, globalism means dealing with the world as it exists, not as we would like it to exist. It means addressing egregious problems head-on as we are (finally) doing with China. It means addressing despots in terms they understand. Realists understand this. Globalists see it as their vision slipping away.
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@AACNY: surely you realize that if Obama was still in office, or Hillary Clinton....these would not even be issues. Everything would be just fine!
The rage and hysteria and claims "the sky is falling!" are all variations on Trump Derangement Syndrome.
If Obama had put tariffs on goods from China....it would be Holy Writ.
1
@AACNY By "the world as it exists," what you actually mean is "the world as capitalists have created it." You seem to think that "as it exists" is inevitable. It's NOT! The world "as capitalists and capitalism have created it" serves the elite much too well, and the working, vast majority not nearly well enough!
We can and must create a much more equitable society, i.e. one which serves ALL of us (esp. the working classes) much better, or there WILL be trouble, and those of us who care about and defend the interests of working and middle class Americans, i.e. "the 99%," will (or should) make it...
If we DON'T do that, we are headed toward an economy and society that is medieval in nature, where a small number of elites have ALL the wealth and power, and the rest of us have NONE WHATSOEVER!
Is THAT what we want? Is that even acceptable?
I don't think so.
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The outcome of this show was decided long ago. Feigning a fight is how America will bow to the new world order, save face, and provide plausible deniability to politicians placed into service to position global oligarchs for the next century. Read the scripts, and find a good way to rewrite them, unless you cannot imagine choosing a way to make a different and much better future.
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@Daniel Kauffman You must be a fatalist... or a capitalist. Your "inevitability" is the rich elite declaring victory, prematurely! We are in fact at a (possible) turning point. We should, right now, be considering alternatives to capitalism, and we are! The reason we are talking about socialism is that capitalism is not working for so many of us.
Socialism - in my mind, and in the minds of most of us who support it, meaning DEMOCRATIC socialism, is the solution to that problem. Socialism, very much like democracy, defends the interests of the working classes, but with more teeth! Democracy was devised to protect workers in pre-industrial societies... socialism is the updated version of democracy, engineered to work in an industrial society. It is NECESSARY for labor, in an industrial economy, to be organized. Government is currently under the thumb of capitalism. It will be the job of socialism, and socialists, to restore that government to the service of THE PEOPLE.
Capitalism is a downward spiral, where the rich get richer, the rest of us poorer (that being clearly the trend over the last 40-50 years). Socialism would not only restore (or create) economic equality, i.e. a large middle class in the US, and with it a thriving (truly thriving, as opposed to thriving only for rich globalists) economy, it would also eliminate poverty.
If that knocks the rich and super-rich down
a notch or two, so be it...
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@Daniel Kauffman You must be a fatalist... or a capitalist. Your "inevitability" is the rich elite declaring victory, prematurely! We are in fact at a (possible) turning point. We should, right now, be considering alternatives to capitalism, and we are! The reason we are talking about socialism is that capitalism is not working for so many of us.
Socialism - in my mind, and in the minds of most of us who support it, meaning DEMOCRATIC socialism, is the solution to that problem. Socialism, very much like democracy, defends the interests of the working classes, but with more teeth! Democracy was devised to protect workers in pre-industrial societies... socialism is the updated version of democracy, engineered to work in an industrial society. It is NECESSARY for labor, in an industrial economy, to be organized. Government is currently under the thumb of capitalism. It will be the job of socialism, and socialists, to restore that government to the service of THE PEOPLE.
Capitalism is a downward spiral, where the rich get richer, the rest of us poorer (that being clearly the trend over the last 40-50 years). Socialism would not only restore (or create) economic equality, i.e. a large middle class in the US, and with it a thriving (truly thriving, as opposed to thriving only for rich globalists) economy, it would also eliminate poverty.
If, in the process, that knocks the rich and super-rich down
a notch or two, so be it...
2
I agree with the arguments here (e.g., globalization is good and will continue) except I think the author assumes an incorrect premise about U.S. trade policy.
The U.S. is not pulling out of the global trade order. We selectively targeting China to coerce them to abide by the rules of that order, including respect for IP rights.
See, e.g., https://www.wired.com/story/us-china-cybertheft-su-bin/
So yes, tariffs and quotas are bad for the economy. But does anyone make that argument when we sanction Russia or Iran?
No, because those are the exceptions to the general rule. Same with China. If they commit to play by fair rules, then they too can participate in a global free market. But our domestic industry should not be subject to Chinese import competition, while Chinese industry is shielded by arbitrary bureaucratic import regulations, forced IP transfers, state sponsored hacking, state media directed consumer boycotts and massive industrial subsidies and state contracts.
Furthermore, leftists used to argue that developing economies should be required to implement minimum workers' rights and environmental standards to participate in global free trade--lest we have a race to the bottom in offshoring to the most permissive country. I think that point of view if hard to argue with, but for some reason it's a blind spot of the "elite"--when is the last time you read an article about environmental laws in China as part of this trade debate?
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@Mmm
"We selectively targeting China to coerce them to abide by the rules of that order"
This is not the case or why are we targeting Europe, Mexico, Canada and India? I don't disagree pressure needs to be put on China but to do that you need allies and currently we're alienating them. Who would trust the US at the moment?
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It seems to me that Trump's mission is to destroy the US in any way possible.
1. What makes the US the most innovative nation in the world is the ability to attract the best and brightest from around the world. By targeting people with racial profiling (Muslims, Chinese, Hispanics etc.), this would scare off any would be immigrants. This is the greatest promotional tool for the Chinese Thousand Talents program.
2. By using trade as a weapon for nationalistic purposes, the US's reputation for upholding free trade will be destroyed.
3. By attacking independent institutions such as the Federal Reserve, the judiciary system and the like, this is an assault on the very foundation of the whole system of governance.
4. By using the US dollar as weapon in trade (sanctions, competitive devaluation), he is accelerating the dedollarisation process that had already been ongoing.
5. By alienating US allies through his unilateral decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement, and even threatening to pull out of NATO, he is weakening the Western military alliance.
6. By using US technological innovations as bargaining chips, this simply encourages customers of US companies to take their business elsewhere.
7. By condoning the criminal conduct of autocratic governments such as Saudi Arabia, he is destroying any moral authority that still remains
The circumstantial evidence that Trump is a Russian stooge is plain to see.
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@Adrian
Written from a foreign perspective, and not through the eyes of beleaguered Main Street America.
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This comment was clearly written by somebody who supports the Chinese Communist Party because it is very disingenuous. In some ways it is accusing US of things that China does on a grand scale like currency manipulation, and no independent judiciary. It’s almost laughable in its transparency and the clumsiness of the argument.
We have checks and balances here and although Trump influences somethings he clearly does not get his way like the leaders in China and their secretive committee meetings. Our system has lasted over 200 years and will survive Trump, and our prosperity will too. Can you say the same for China?
3
@Adrian: really? that must be why we take in a million immigrants a year (most of them Asian, Hispanic, Muslim) AND a million illegal aliens. Are they going to China? REALLY? can I pay for a couple of their bus tickets?
I gather as someone in Hong Kong, which is run by CHINA, you have no idea what life is like in the US or how we've been overrun by immigrants and illegals to the point we now have to print OUR BALLOTS in SPANISH.
Here's a heads-up: your "New World Order" has been nothing but a disaster for ordinary Americans -- stealing our jobs -- stealing our tax dollars. We're done.
You want to be the stooges of Xi Jinping? Go please, be my guest.
We're done.
4
Dense supply chains are the key to the mass production of consumer goods, which small densely populated Asia nations have, and we do not. No where in the U.S. could we amass thousands of workers willing to live in densely populated specific manufacturing cities, just not going to happen.
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@Gretna Bear: um...except that is precisely what we did for most of the 20th century.
Hello! what was "Detroit"?
2
@Concerned Citizen this is the 21st Global Economy century. As to Detroit's dominance, the BIG 3 had zero foreign competition, and then with Chrysler and Ford tanking, GMC controlled well over 60% of the market with ever lower quality. As the last century was coming to a close, American capitalism had failed to invest in its America industrial base, instead closing down, and moving first to low cost sites in the states and then overseas. We have many economic and cultural advantages, divorcing ourselves from the rest of the world just dimishes these strengths.
1
"Probably" irreversible?
Completely and totally irreversible. Globalization *is* the new world order. Get on board or get run over.
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A thorough read of history-particularly the history of business-highlights the inherent globalization of societies. Trade beyond borders has been pursued for millennia. And will be into the future despite risky behavior by political or business leaders intent on winning it all for themselves. Likewise, societies revolt or devolve into violence upon self in response to actions that threaten the well-being of community. We are seeing it play out now and it is terrifying to those of us who are not positioned to affect change. If the business community leaders will not take action to assert ithrnselves and the need for stability in the markets, and take action to defund and denounce political leadership who have brought us to the brink, then they too will be replaced by force of historical tides. And I’m pretty certain that no one is going to be satisfied with the results-least of all the poor and disenfranchised who will be driven to action if only as an act of self-preservation.
13
Trump is not just trying to halt the flow of goods and services across national boundaries. He is likewise endeavoring to end the flow of people and ideas, characteristic of our age of global cosmopolitanism, at least since 1945.
Science, culture, literature, all are to stop at the border, as well as the peoples who bring them.
Trump will hug his flag and dismiss all forms of social life not connected to it.
His is a tariff on humanity itself.
Americans will pay for Trumpism, and in the end, if it succeeds, will be a withered branch, cut off from the tree.
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@Paul McGlasson: says you -- someone whom I'll bet my last nickel is a BENEFICIARY of globalization.
Ask some displaced auto and steel workers how THEY feel.
Ask the guys who used to have good jobs at Carrier A/C.
4
@Paul McGlasson Rump's insatiable need to destroy will not stop at our border - he will do all that he can to wreck this planet before he leaves it.
3
And we will deserve it.
Elections have consequences.
Vote FOR democracy in 2020 or perish.
7
At last, an attempt at assessing the economic impacts of globalization, but detached from the filter of domestic politics.
9
Globalization is what will eventually destroy the world as we know it. Imagine living in a world ruled by a Master-of-the Universe -type government.
I would rather keep Trump. Thank you.
18
@MPM
Globalism is heady stuff. Several Western leaders have been swept away by the idea of defining the world in their vision. There's no bigger ego boost.
Their countries' citizens, on the other hand, basically said, "Enough! Get back to work in your own countries."
6
@MPM
I don't know what is the distopian vision that you harbour ( "Master-of-the Universe -type government")
and why do you think that Trump prevents it. You do not specify beyond soundbites.
What will (if not averted) destroy the world -and not in a distant future but in 10 years- is global warming.
Trump is an active denier that withdrew the US from the Paris Accord. He is also reversing various environment protecting measures put in place by Obama.
That is something that you should be terrified of.
10
@Phil,
Comparing today’s world to that of the Mycenaeans or the Romans, or Marco Polo’s is a very simplistic view of world history.
The speed at which people and goods travel today is unprecedented in history. And Brave New World is right around the corner.
I care very little about what Trump wants to do in America, but I care that Italy will no longer be a colony of Germany, and a dumping ground for Africa. And I thank Matteo Salvini for that. My ancestor fought hard to obtain a nation. I will defend it from any Master-of-the Universe type government.
2