Obama increased the national debt by 74%.
Trump is on target to increase our debt by 30%.
7
After creating millions of full time jobs in 1.5 years, after a 3.1% increase in wages, after a 3%+ GDP, and after enabling the lowest unemployment rate ever for minorities, Libs now say Trump is a total failure.
9
This is what happens when you hand the world's largest economy to a 4 times bankrupt grifter, I guess.
55
“Grifter”? Show some respect. How about “Golfer” instead.
14
The business sector is waiting to see what happens with the tariffs. What I have not seen is the reports on what the Chinese and Mexico have been doing for decades, long before Trump was in office. The Chinese and Mexico have had 40+% tariffs on ALL US made goods for decades. That made it almost impossible for the consumers in those countries to afford US made products. The Chinese and the Mexican economies are in far worse shape the US and they cannot hold out for very long. When the Chinese government removes the tariffs on US made goods, then there will be millions of consumers who will be buying US made goods that they could not afford before. The same goes for Mexico. So, all of the doom and gloom reported by the main stream conspiracy news media is lies and distortions. First, they never reported about the tariffs on US made goods and US made goods were not being purchased as a result. Second, the news media never explained how tariffs work, instead they resorted to calling Trump names and fearmongering the public into thinking all is lost. The news media are the biggest conspiracy outlets ever. And I thought that Alex Jones of infowars.com was the king of conspiracies. Jones doesn't hold a candle to these main stream conspiracy news media networks.
5
@Allen blaine: It can't be much of a conspiracy of secrecy, since most people already know that there are tariffs charged on US goods in China. China has always had an insulated economy, and being a centrally planned one, it has always been structured differently than the U.S.'s. Why you think there's some giant coverup is a mystery. The U.S. has not relied upon tariffs for revenue since the income tax was institutes in 1913. Previously, tariffs were practically the federal government's only source of revenue. Why anyone who is not wealthy would want to go back to that regressive form of taxation is also puzzling. Tariffs are simply taxes known by another name, and they will be paid by ordinary citizens if they are instituted. That means the prices of many good will rise. But I suppose we have to pay for Trump's gigantic deficit, somehow. The rich certainly aren't going to pay for it, since they're the ones getting the enormous tax breaks that are creating a giant hole in the federal budget.
31
"...it tied a record for longevity with the boom of the 1990s."
What "boom"?
Oh, you mean the type of "boom" that Corporate America and Wall St. and the investor class enjoy! But in the cycle of "booms and busts" since Reagan launched "trickle down" economics, this latest edition bypasses the working and middle class once again.
Do us a favor media - drop the use of "job numbers" and "unemployment numbers" since they really don't indicate how well (or badly) the majority of people are doing. Even those who have jobs are struggling due to low pay, lack of benefits, and no pensions. When you count part time, commission-only, and jobs that rely on tips in your "job numbers", it badly skews the picture. So, this latest bad news is simply worse news for most people.
Those putting their faith in Trump should ask themselves: Do you really want to put your faith in a guy with a reputation of stiffing workers, and running out on obligations?
48
Hold on hold on hold on, just what is going on, I was told over & over again by all the Democrats & their associates in the media how if D.J.Trump won the 2016 election & became POTUS he would, quote-- 'crash the economy & cause a recession'.......what happened, where is it?
You're not going to tell me these people got it wrong are you, did they get anything else so badly wrong? I won't mention Trump starting WW3 because there's still time for that, my hunch though is that we'll all be okay, that these people will be wrong about this too.
5
@kojak
Patience grashopper ... have no fear. The GOP is a recession specialist. Of the 111 months our economy spent in recession over the post WW2 period since Ike, almost the entirety (89%) were accumulated under GOP tenures (see NBER). It's coming .. the GOP will deliver, it always has .. count on it.
47
@kojak Three words; Trillion dollar deficits!
25
The unemployment rate is such a ridiculous stat because it does not take into account the income disparity, which would be a better index of how we are doing. Unless they figure that in, but I can't imagine it. Trump's economists are probably cherry picking everything they come across anyway.
25
If the economy starts to head south, then as they say “You broke it, you own it Mr. Trump”
17
Trump never owns anything bad. He always has someone to blame.
22
The machine is starting to breakdown.
Has anyone ever sat in their car, turned the ignition, kept the engine in park and stomped on the pedal until the car runs out of gas? No? Because the car never runs out of gas. The engine explodes.
The Republicans have the pedal to the metal trying to juice the numbers, thinking they've invented a better mousetrap. Too many metaphors? Not if you can afford a college education.
Rank and file Republicans? They can afford funny red hats but not the time it takes to read a book.
38
The Tariff Man and Sanctions man strikes again. What has learned? Absolutely nothing.
16
Why not come out and say it: America is failing its citizens when it comes to jobs, the social safety net, education, affordable housing, access to medical care, etc. This is about more than employment. It's about how poorly most workers in America are treated on the job, off the job, when they are unemployed, retired, in need of assistance of any sort, or merely alive.
We live on credit because most of the basic necessities of life are too expensive without it. We can't get ahead of the eight ball because, no matter what sort of jobs we have, they don't pay us enough to cover having a life outside of work. It's time to stop giving corporations like Amazon, Google, Citibank, and others tax breaks especially when they don't want to pay the smallest taxes. It's time to tax the richest in America to prevent people like the Koch Brothers amassing the control they have over government. It's also time to insist that the richest corporations pay everyone a living wage so that they don't have to resort to applying for welfare.
It's long past time to reform our health care system so that people over the age of 50 can find jobs. One of the reasons we can't is because of how employment and health insurance have been linked. We can ignore all these issues too and just wait for the suicide rate to increase. I hear that there are a lot of baby boomers born after 1955 who will not be able to retire or afford more than a cardboard box for shelter even though they worked hard.
30
I track a few job categories via a couple of sites. I keep up with my former profession and a family member's profession. I noticed a drop off in listings in April, and off the cliff in May. So far on June, almost nothing.
Granted this is unscientific and personal, but got my attention before the official announcement.
21
I paid no attention when Trump continued a ten year decline in unemployment and a steady upward stock market valuation. Nobody knows what is going to happen other than these are unprecedented times.
I am reminded that John Ralston Saul wrote The Collapse of Globalism and the Reinvention of the World in 2005 and Time Magazine calls him a prophet.
2
How much did the deficit grow I mean the debts future generations have to pay for??
25
3.1% wage growth the past year.
3.6% unemployment rate.
3.1% GDP
Market up 1000 points this week.
Market up 6000 points since Trump defeated Hillary.
Energy independence, plus the Keystone and Dakota pipelines are both under construction.
Oh, the horrors.
10
@Dr. John
You forgot one: yield curve inverted
Get back to me in 12-18 months.
44
@Dr. John
Economy does well
Republican gets elected president and takes credit for the good economy
Republican puts out policies that ruins the economy
Democrat gets elected and takes the blame for the ruined economy
Democrat works tirelessly and brings the economy back up
Republican gets elected
The American electoral cycle continues.
77
The last two democratic presidents were in for 8 years each. That’s long enough to have to take the blame for poor economies. Such a typical excuse for those with particularly sour grapes.
4
I noticed this past February that nearly twice as many new jobs were created in Canada that month than in the US. This seemed an anomaly, since the US economy is ten times that of Canada.
In May the Canadian economy added only 27,700 jobs, which is disappointing, but is still proportionally about a third of the US. If the economies of North America are slowing down, it would appear that the effect is at this time most pronounced in the US.
18
Bond rates drop in expectation of a rate cut. Though theoretically this shouldn’t be happening; it does, because bond buyers are expecting rates to fall after Powell’s comments and try and front run a rate cut to make money. This creates the self fulfilling prophecy; the says he may cut rates, bond buyers bid the market, bonds go up, rates go down. Then, when the meeting is held he has to cut rates, or the bond market will tank. That’s why the 10 year bond yields go lower only after the fed ‘threatens’ to cut rates. Just look at the sequence of events since December and it’s quite clear the fed is manipulating bond yields by playing on investor expectations; it will end badly...
10
There is too much money chasing too few investment opportunities. Capitalism isn't what it used to be. Trump was a distant longshot to even run when I suggested that the only thing that would allow capitalism to continue was negative interest.
The wheelbarrows filled with cash that might buy a bread in Weimar Germany must become credit cards with negative interest to provide us with a consumer economy that mimics when America was great.
America is following Russia's economy, and wealth is distributed evenly throughout the society but the oligarchs have all the disposable income.
What was that proportion of American households that can't handle a $400 emergency?
At 71 I won't see the opportunity to borrow a billion dollars at negative 5% but the people invested in the markets must start to imagine what unCapitalism will look like.
I do not understand why people cannot understand taxes are a price we pay for social order. The market exists to satiate greed and the market is running out of prey. I am waiting for government bonds that are a bargain at minus 2%.
12
Trump is just about through riding the Obama recovery horse.The problem is that he and his friend Mitch(and wife) will probably cook up anther trillion dollar- plus stimulus bill without any sort of tax revenue to balance it.Then he'll lean on the Fed.to help fund it.....all with that expert,Larry Kudlow,advising him.If the accuracy of Kudlow's past predictions are any guide,we could be in for some very serious trouble.
34
Funny how a single man can fix everything never understood that economy is that simple if it is going well it is the President if it’s going bad blame someone else I guess this is the rule everywhere....
6
nice satire.
1
@Jaffa Bozare You must be kidding. Trump a successful businessman! What a laugh. A man with several bankruptcies who can’t borrow any money from American banks. He has to get his loans from Russia. In his own words what a “loser”. Give me a break. I would take former President Obama any day of the week over con man Trump
8
But the stock market is doing great today, expecting that the Fed will lower interest rates to try and compensate for the impact of Trump's unsound tariffs. I am afraid someone is pouring sugar in our gas tanks for short term political gain.
24
I heard an analyst today say that he and his colleagues believed/estimated that the extreme midwest flooding shaved about 40,000 off this number, so it's not as bad as it looks. He said it's likely going to jump back up when the current month's numbers are reported. We'll see.
8
@J Darby
Could be, but even 115,000 jobs added would be nothing to write home about. We'll need some kind of magic potion if we're to come anywhere near the 25,000,000 new jobs Trump promised.
8
@Rex7
Ha! My mother used to use that expression, "nothing to write home about".
First, anyone believing anything trump says or promises (10,000+ lies/false statements and counting according to WaPo) is living in a dream world and is likely in need of some kind of magic potion.
Second, I wasn't saying that 115k would be a good number, it's still below projections. But it's not as dire as 75k and does not as strongly portend a "sharply" declining economy.
But we'll see if his guess was correct.
4
@J Darby
So it was climate change, not Republican ignorance and incompetence ?
Tell me the difference again
3
I'm still cognizant of the millions of jobs lost in 2009 and on as a result of the Great Recession. Looking at some of the sparse disorganized national layoff figures, one in particular caught my attention; that of Ford White collar layoffs. That is the top of the food chain that will have a large impact on the national economy from that company to all the suppliers, retailers, fuel industry, service industries, and ultimately the stock markets. There are other layoff figures and the sum of many may indicate a low hiring future, even a decline in jobs. Attitude is everything and I imagine our business leaders must be seriously hesitant to make any investments in jobs or businesses with Trump's black cloud perched in their minds. It is hard to be Gung ho with all this trade uncertainty.
The low job creation figures may also reflect layoffs that meant fewer new jobs.
10
I accept criticism for welcoming a Trump recession, if it should arrive. I understand the pain of lost jobs and worse economic insecurity. Still, if that's what it takes to doom Trump, whom I consider a crypto- (and not very crypto) fascist madman and his presidency, bring it on!
37
@Jim Steinberg
I understand your passion but we shouldn't suffer for the mistake called Trump. We need to not only wait to vote him out but we need to talk it up in the coming months. I'm equally disgusted that the Democrats leading us are so intent on appearing adult that they refrain from the criticism needed to teach the misguided Trump supporters. There's too much reserved dignity and not enough gut wrenching political fighting. Trump is a Bull escaping strong worded equally strong criticism.
2
@Jim Steinberg And what, because a few delusional citizens scream 'fascism' as soon as our democracy doesn't throw up results & outcomes that they want we must therefore take these clowns seriously?
People are stupid my friend, the vast majority of the population know full well the differences between a fascist regime & society & a democratic one. People know extremism when they see it, be it RW fascism or LW socialism. They also know full well that the current government have no resemblance to a fascist government whatsoever, & this is why people who claim such ludicrous things never provide evidence or tangible examples of what they are claiming.
Maybe YOU can tell me in what way the US gov is a fascist gov, can you provide some examples of when this administration has acted differently to previous administrations. What actions has President Trump done that have any resemblance to what fascist governments do? I won't hold my breath.
Is this the Trump plan ? Wreck the economy while he takes in billions (with the help of the Fed which will lower interest rates permitting Trump to wheel and deal.)
His mad incoherence is but a smokescreen as he takes in the money.
Money = Trump
21
@Same As It Ever Was Seriously, if anyone is going mad it's people who think like this. So after more than two yrs of Trump & his gov doing everything they can to improve economic growth & of fighting for better trade agreements with our international trading partners, after all this you claim what Trump really wants is a recession, he really wants to wreck the economy?
Do you expect other people to take you seriously when you say these type of things? It wouldn't matter one jot how well the economy ever did under Trump's presidency, your personal feelings of animus towards him is more important to you than anything else.
1
@Same As It Ever Was Seriously, if anyone is going mad it's people who think like this. So after more than two yrs of Trump & his gov doing everything they can to improve economic growth & of fighting for better trade agreements with our international trading partners, after all this you claim what Trump really wants is a recession, he really wants to wreck the economy?
Do you expect other people to take you seriously when you say these type of things? It wouldn't matter one jot how well the economy ever did under Trump's presidency, your personal feelings of animus towards him is more important to you than anything else.
If 'money=Trump' I don't understand why he would voluntarily decline to receive a salary as president. Just short of $2m for a 4 yr term, $4m if re-elected. Seems a lot of money for a man obsessed with money to turn down, it's not as if a previous president has ever done it, so why Trump?
How about a little honesty? So, Trump is returning from the best trip by an American President in years. He has shroudly played the tariff game and got Mexico to buy vast amounts of farm products that we can no longer sell to China. He has obtained serious help from Mexico in controlling the illegals from entering Mexico on their trip to the United States. Now, what do we hear from "Leader" Pelosi? Pelosi can only find criticism on the "poor" employment numbers. The ignorant rant from Democrats is turning Independents and making the 2020 race a runaway Trump triumph. Nice work!
9
@BobsOpinion - I think you meant "shrewdly played" but "shroudly" better fits the president.
28
Are you kidding? The only thing keeping this market up is the fed, which is terrified of his wrath when they tell him the tariffs are a total loser. If they don’t cut rates, he’s toast. We need another Robert Rubin who can bring back fiscal discipline and make the economy great again, and balance the budget, like it was in the ‘90’s. Those were the great years. We need higher interest rates and a real booming economy, not ballooning debt and quantitative easing.
8
@BobsOpinion
Pro tip: Don't listen to Bob's (uninformed) Opinion
5
Traditionally, presidents are re-elected if the economy is good. But if it turns down, the president’s schtick will wear thin even among his enablers in Congress and then impeachment won’t be such an uphill battle.
18
If the market tanks, he’s toast. And everyone knows it.
4
Perhaps if Donald had a policy. He acts on impulse, and without sound advice from the people in government with the most experience.
And the Republicans in Congress have a policy of never speaking up so as not to offend the guy causing all the economic distress.
Note to pubs: Donald is about to be impeached. It's okay to disagree with him.
24
@Occupy Government
Anyone who feels compelled to inject political spin into economic numbers will be certain to misread them.
7
@btb
Have at it. Give it a different spin. He's been a plague for 21/2 years. Give it another spin. He's mindlessly stumbled through a job America's minority handed him. Give it another spin. He's still blaming Obama for handing him a well-oiled economy. Give it another spin. Waiting...waiting...
11
@Occupy Government Sorry? Acts on impulse? As per usual you make these claims but never cite examples.
I will give examples to support why I totally disagree with you. From day one, June '15, Trump strongly objected to the JCPOA. In his campaign he promised to take the US out of it. After taking office it took him 15 months to eventually do what he promised, this was because, according to testimony under oath from Mike Pompeo, Trump kept insisting on reading every single piece of paper, often more than once, Pompeo said Trump would almost obsess over it, he repeatedly badgered his staff for their views on the issue.
During the campaign, with a vacant SC seat up for grabs, Trump made public his list of 20 possible candidates that he would pick from. No other president, & not HRC, has ever done such a thing. He had researched the potential candidates & STUCK with the same names even for the Kavanaugh nomination. There was no acting on impulse, no names added on a whim.
Was Trump's approach to NATO done on impulse? Because I recall over 2 yrs prior to Trump meeting other NATO leaders in Europe he was saying exactly the same thing, his position was long standing, not done on a whim, not on impulse.
1
We're at close to full employment. Why is this a surprise? I would guess that most of those not employed have reasons other than not being able to find a job.
8
They used to say that 3.6% was "full employment" or close to it. How many more jobs can be added to full employment?
6
@Antoine You need to add about 150,000 jobs per month to keep up with population growth. One month’s report is a blip, but if job creation tapers off like this going forward then the unemployment rate will go up again.
18
Surprise! Executives are cutting back on hiring in anticipation of the damage that Trump’s tariffs are likely to have on consumers who will pay the “tax” that tariffs create on the costs of imports. And will Congress dare to exert their Constitutional authority over tariffs as Tariff Man Trump demonstrates just how he managed to bankrupt so many businesses?!
26
With unemployment at 3.6% there is no reason to expect job gains as large as last year. Most of the employable people have jobs. Those without jobs are likely not qualified for many of the current openings.
8
Many jobs these days are part-time and the pay is low. So things are not quite as idyllic as one might think. What we desperately need in this country is job training and big infrastructure to spur the economy.
22
@Al Galli Precisely. We have two under performing employees that we've kept for two years because it's been difficult finding qualified people. We're not asking for software engineers just people who can provide run of the mill tech support for clients. Applicants have minimal PC and internet skills. It isn't hard work to reset passwords with an easy to use program, google information to help clients employees and input into a spread sheet. It's been an education on how many people really don't know how to use a computer beyond Facebook.
5
@Peter ERIKSON Back in 2008 in the Economic Crisis I said big infrastructure program would be worth the money and I still do not understand why Obama didn't do that. It wasn't because of Republicans either and I suspect it had to do with unions. From experience job training programs per se are a waste of money but associated with an infrastructure it could work.
We're in for a cyclical downturn that possibly could be as bad as 2007-9 but I don't think we'll get infrastructure again. It won't be because of Trump but Congress and again unions. Politics gets in the way of common sense.
1
"The latest report was a disappointing showing that will stoke fears the economy is softening ..."
We can thank Trump's ridiculous trade wars.
My dream which will probably never happen: The Democrats ask Michael Bloomberg to be a candidate for president. Then we can be sure Trump loses the 2020 election. Mr. Bloomberg is for free trade, he pro-business, and he would protect the environment. He would be the best president this country ever had.
Reality: The Democrats will nominate an anti-business liberal extremist. He or she will lose and we will be stuck with the worst president in United States history for another 4 years.
9
@BobC
You’re already stuck with the worst president in US history.
4
I'm shocked that a costume businessman who set a billion dollars on fire in the 1980's is running our economy into the ground. Shocked, I tell you.
36
I'll say the same thing I say every time I read an article related to the unemployment rate:
The unemployment rate is a fantasy number derived from a household phone survey of around 60,000 houses on a predetermined call list... the very nature of the survey directly leaves out the transient and homeless, those most likely to be effected by joblessness. And the number only counts "participation" meaning if you don't apply for a job and then if that employer doesn't catalog your application in the system... you aren't counted.
We use the unemployment number and the stock market as the main indicators of the health of our economy, and one number is made-up... and the other only affects the 13% of the population that owns stocks.
All the metrics we use to measure the health of our economy are skewed and manipulated for propagandist means.
Ask the guy on the street how good this "great economy" really is... stuck in our 1970s wages... paying 5 dollars for 40 pizza rolls...
19
The true insanity of Trump, Farage clowns based on this archaic and cave man bravado.
America and Britain can do better for ourselves.
History of 20th century after WWII , from economic perspective dictates that last 75 years shaped by anglo-saxon world. Mainly USA and UK and their commonwealth groups. Now two clown is claiming that they can create another economic power house with isolation.
This is literal insanity.
This is not hing but spending your inheritance drugs and schemes and woman type of street smart attitude.
Entire North America consists only 3 nations and yet Trump is trying to break apart this at least trade union.
who benefits from this idea.....
4
Trump and Republicans claimed that Obama's economy was all smoke and mirrors. They claimed the unemployment rates reported by the labor department were rigged. They claimed the surging stock market was a giant bubble. During the run-up to the election, too many voters were convinced the economy stunk and we were headed for a cliff. It was all a shamelessly false narrative to undermine Democrats. Obama had in fact built a remarkably robust economy, based on the good old fundamental of reducing the budget deficits through fiscal responsibility and prudent tax increase. Just like Bush did with Clinton's economy, Trump and Republicans pushed through a giant tax cut, when the economy was already near full capacity, and blew up the budget deficits. Now we have Trump fighting a trade war with 19th-century tariffs. A strategy that economists and policymakers have rejected for over 80 years. The real story is why Republicans keep letting Trump's peruse this idiotic strategy. Trump's broad and capricious used of tariffs is an abuse of his limited statutory authority which is intended for dealing with a national security emergency.
25
February was low, but the number was large again in March. I’d wait a few months before making too much out of this. Reacting to every statistical blip never goes well. The escalating trade wars don’t help, but if you try finding an immediate effect on the overall US economy, it’s a hard to do. Let’s not be as dumb as Trump is. Let’s carefully evaluate facts and reach deliberate and informed opinions. Smart beats stupid (eventually).
4
@Baldwin yes I agree with you. I'm surprised this wasn't pointed out in the article. One month's report can hardly be considered a trend. Let's not predict a recession one one month's results.
4
@P Lock - The volatility in the monthly jobs numbers is stated in the first sentence of the fifth paragraph. However, two paragraphs later, it's pointed out that the revised numbers for March and April are significantly down from original tallies. One month is not a trend. Three months' lower numbers are a trend line.
3
Like to point out 3 pf last four months were poor numbers!
2
Why would businesses hire more people if they do not know what crazy tariff the administration will come up with tomorrow? I am not blaming anyone in charge for stepping on the brakes in such a uncertain situation and try to get along with the workforce they have right now. It is easy to predict that the numbers will get worse if the tariffs against Mexico are actually going into effect - and the politico leadership is to blame for that...not the businesses.
7
I thought those tax cuts would spur investment, hiring, and salaries for many years. Instead, most companies bought back stocks to inflate profit for shareholders and their CEO's. Not really surprising for those of us paying attention.
Since 1978, and adjusted for inflation, American workers have seen an 11.2 percent increase in compensation. During that same period, CEO’s have seen a 937 percent increase in earnings. That salary growth is even 70 percent faster than the rise in the stock market, according to the Economic Policy Institute.
These statistics demonstrate our elected representatives care more about the rich and powerful and not so much about the poor, working and middle class. It shows that donor money talks and constituent needs are an afterthought.
27
“Jobs that used to offer starting salaries of $30,000 to $40,000 are paying $40,000 to $50,000, Mr. Gimbel said.”
These numbers need to be put in perspective. For pay like that, you’ve be living on the streets in the Bay Area, where homes start at $1 million, or hours away. Prices on everything have been steadily rising the last year; add tariffs to that and you have a toxic brew.
9
@Peter ERIKSON
Living in SF is a huge luxury that most people don't get to enjoy. Just like most people don't get to have a house in the Hamptons...
8
Have you ever seen San Francisco? There are so many homeless you can’t walk down the street. And we’re only here because our parents bought a 1920s home back in the day.
6
@Bob
Well, no, that's the point. People that work as firefighters, teachers, etc., can't afford a roof over their head in the city they work in. Making the leap to stating that affordable housing is a "luxury" no one should expect is intellectually lazy. Affordable housing is a problem in this county.
8
Would it be too much trouble for the NYT to give us some context for these numbers before running a long story? If the U.S. population were shrinking, 75,000 new jobs would be awesome. If the population is growing, maybe the number of jobs per working-age person is shrinking even if there is a nominal growth of 75,000. Without the information about how the size of the working-age population is changing, it is impossible to know if this is good or bad news.
4
@Philip Greenspun
I believe we need around 150,000 to 175,000 new jobs per month to maintain unemployment at whatever it is.
9
Nobody wants to see our economy head south and tank, 2008 is just too recent. I'm not an economist, but when an Administration's economic policy caters mainly to the few top earners and large corporations and their investors, and not the engine behind it, our large middle class, common sense tells me we're in trouble, again.
18
Can't create 200,000 jobs every month.
A lot of good insights in the article and in the comments.
My first thought was maybe the employers can't find the employees.
2
@Pete, then it would useful to find data that track job postings and open positions on a monthly or quarterly basis. I believe there reports such as that complied by HR departments and maybe the department of labor,
1
@Pete
Bill Clinton AVERAGED 245,000 a month for 8 years
3
I'm confused. Why would the "greatest economy of all time" need Fed rate cuts? Shouldn't we be raising rates if the economy was so robust?
33
Trump supporters and apologists can spin it however they want, but this is Business 101. With the trade war with China still going, and now we may be in a trade war with Mexico, these times are simply too uncertain for businesses to undertake serious expansions. If you were running a business, would you increase your overhead (which is what hiring more people amounts to) at a time like this? Is hiring more people to handle more orders logical when your sales might flatten or decline in 6 months? This is the Trump effect.
14
@citybumpkin - Its also the first week of June and school is out which means everyone likes to travel and things are different business-wise. Students have left an entire neighborhood here in Seattle (UW) and it seems pretty quite compared to the first week in September when they all come back.
If I read reports that jobs were down for September and October when the country is gearing up for Black Friday, I might get a bit more concerned.
Before Blaming the Trump. Economy is revving in its top scream, 3.6 % joblessness.
There is no going better from here.
Then, Do we need to shake boat which is Trump actually drilling the bottom of the Boat. ….
Trade wars , tariff wars these are can be done only if you have a very expert cabinet and very competent president.
Neither Trump nor his cabinet is not that caliber people but they are shaking the boat crazily.
what could go wrong? or how long their luck is going to carry them.
5
low inflation with very low interest rates and the lowest unemployment rates in half a century, wages not increasing significantly, and businesses hunkering down for lean times instead of investing in near future growth.. These are not indicators of a booming economy. They are a continuation of what we have been seeing since 2009. Right now things are improving slowly but we may face big problems in the not too distant future.
Trump's trillion dollar deficit tax cuts and wild tariff wars are unknowns. But they could tank the economy for years to come. The health care policies are a big risk, too. We cannot afford to have millions of people unable to pay for their health care and have it remain affordable for anyone not super rich. The middle class cannot afford to replace Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. It cannot afford to see pensions replaced with stock market accounts that fluctuate in value with the limited means which they can afford to invest. The right is posing a serious threat to the future well being of this country through the Trump Presdiency.
32
“Just the way Trump creates chaos, people don’t see the chaotic market as an indicator.”
Don't ignore the market. At the top of a bull market (and conversely the bottom of a bear market) is when the market gets the most volatile. Also at the end of a bull market is also when the biggest gains are made. We just had a monster rally of 25.9% in the S&P 500 in just 4 months (from the bottom on 12/26/18 to the top on 5/1/2019).
As someone who works in financial services the stock market always peaks at least 6-9 months before the economy starts to tip into recession.
Also the 10 year treasury/3 month treasury yield curve is firmly inverted now which usually precedes a recession by around a year.
18
The unemployment rate is certainly lower since so many folks have bought into the “flexible” economy characterized by Uber, Lyft etc. Unfortunately, these are jobs with no benefits and little security. As soon as the recession hits the riders who drop their credit cards into these kinds of businesses will tighten the purse strings. That will contribute to an extreme acceleration of the unemployment rate unprecedented in history.
Don’t worry; we can always correct the problem like the last recession with another Democratic fiscal stimulus since we have had a president over the past two years who has shown remarkable restraint with the federal budget by not blowing it on tax cuts for the rich.
Wait a minute…
25
@Mark from Georgia That "tightening the purse strings" you describe is called "lack of discretionary income" and you correctly describe people's behavior when there is a downturn and money is tight. While I applaud Trump for going after the Chinese, as always, it was his bull in a china shop approach that took the shine off the "Tariff guy". Add to that the debt service on a trillion dollar deficit and the horizon does not look good.
8
The Obama gravy train is slowing to a stop.
Now Donald Trump’s economy is taking shape. When unemployment is in double digits next year and the economy is in a free fall because automakers are balking at relaxed emissions standards and the tariff tantrums have taken hold and the ranchers and cattlemen and farmers are begging for loans because climate change has destroyed their lands and living and prices have gone through the ceiling, well, he and Larry Kudlow and the other one percenters who people this corrupt administration can “blame it on Obama.”
That ought to work.
354
@Red Sox, ‘04, ‘07, ‘13, ‘18
You could have made a fortune betting against Kudlow's economic predictions for the last twenty-five years.
26
@Red Sox, ‘04, ‘07, ‘13, ‘18
They will blame it on Obama and it might work.
13
@Red Sox, ‘04, ‘07, ‘13, ‘18 Let us hope so....
1
I would like someone to investigate if the unemployment rate is remaining low because the Trump administration is working overtime to deport or discourage qualified legal immigrant workers out of the country so the total population of available workers is shrinking. Legal immigrants whose spouses are now being refused the opportunity to work are leaving. That must be impacting the unemployment rate, too.
7
@me
Illegal immigration is nine times higher since Trump became president! Lol.
4
As someone in the trenches, I can tell you that for the last three months, sales for my little business have collapsed. Not only that, but normally, each day I would get emails from prospective buyers asking questions about my products and compatibility. Those emails have vanished. That means customers are not interested buying. They are not even looking for fun. Times are far too turbulent for discretionary spending. Too much uncertainty.
They are waiting for the tariff situation to clear up and it is becoming clearer. Tariffs are here and getting worse. People do not understand how they will affect their jobs, so they are waiting it out to see how they ripple through the economy. I still feel that the boost the economy had was people trying to head off the tariffs. That's over.
I'll tell you this, a recession can easily begin if people become too afraid to spend money. That causes a downward spiral. My spending has been greatly curtailed because my sales are down. That causes reduced income from those that would have received those dollars and so on.
Agriculture is going through the same thing. Soon, companies that rely on imports will suffer similarly.
So is this number a blip, a one time occurance, or has the slide began. We will know for sure in three months if a trend has set in.
384
@Bruce Rozenblit, Sadly I have the same experience. I am a small manufacturer. Sales dropped off a cliff. I was a life long registered Republican. Now a registered independent. Last month, 6 economists at the agriculture dept resigned en masse because they were told to alter their reports to make the policies of the current administration look good. I never thought I would start to not believe economic reporting out of our government. Now I have the feeling the reports are fake. Look at data the government does not control. This economy stinks unless you own stock. The stock market has nothing to do with 90 percent of us. I do not remember the exact numbers but I think 80 percent of stocks are owned by 1 percent of us plus foreigners. This administration lies about everything. Do you think they might cook the books? My old political party tanks the economy when they get control. I am going to vote for every not-Republican I can find including dog catcher...
208
@Stephen I didn't know about the 6 economists who left the Agriculture Dept. and the reason. It's true that figures don't lie but liars do. Makes one question EVERYTHING coming out of this administration. When Sarah and Sean lied, I should have known it was much more widespread. A lot of cooking the books makes more sense when you take everything else into consideration. Thank you.
56
@Stephen
Hold your nose and vote Democrat. A vote for anyone else is a wasted vote.
38
Gee, when you give wealthy people and corporations a tax cut, you're telling me the effects temporary and eventually wears off? And when you start multiple trade wars it harms American manufacturers and consumers?
Welcome to the trump slump.
452
@CP
Give is the operative word here. Since reagan, over and over to our mutual loss of opportunity and resources.
This is supported by the gop then and now, and they still seem to win elections, even though this is obviously harmful. How about another idea? How about it?
16
@CP Ultra-capitalists don't plow excessive income back into their businesses, at least not in a way that continually and significantly lifts any "boats" beyond those of their executives and stock holders. And make no mistake, that huge tax cut is essentially excessive income for the wealthy; if your net worth is tens. hundreds, or thousands of $millions, what is most of that value but a number you compare to other wealthy people's net worth - mine is bigger than yours?
Proof? By now after the tax cut, the vast majority of companies should have been able to add more jobs, pay higher wages, or even both. America should be rocking it on wage growth; instead it's barely a trickle above what was seen under Obama.
LOL. We shouldn't be surprised. After all, there'a a reason why it's called trickle-down economics. Man, that trickle doesn't get very far down from the top ranks of the economy before it gets squeezed off, does it.
67
@Barry Williams - "Ultra-capitalists don't plow excessive income back into their businesses,...."
Of course they don't plow excessive income back into their businesses. Why would they? The whole idea that what was necessary was making the rich richer was always glaringly obviously absurd, but the Republicans have gotten away with pulling the wool over the eyes of too many people for years and years. Why are so many people totally incapable of thinking this through?
28
Only 75,000 net new nonfarm positions in April? Just how bad was that? Why did the AJSN, or American Job Shortage Number, show we can now quickly fill 15.6 million more positions? See http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2019/06/mays-employment-data-off-month-for-once.html.
3.6 per cent is still considered full employment by most economists, but drip-drip-drip and Hello Recession!
2
Oh my god, this is hugh times for the Democrats.
Less people got jobs, less young people entered the work force, just like the Democrats like it.
I can imagine that in their inner circles, they are throwing a party, finally bad news on the economy, finally America is declining.
Now watch them all come out of the sewers claiming that, like Paul Krugman here, the Democrats always warned us that this would happen under Trump.
It’s in deed bad news for the country, but that is just how Democrats like it.
4
That’s all you got? Well, I guess it’s easier than discussing the actual numbers and underlying issues.
26
President Obama, a Democrat, added 11 million jobs during his two terms. Your comment is absurd.
19
@AutumnLeaf
I have a really hard time accepting as credible the opinion of someone who can't spell the word "huge."
13
Change in economic policy doesn't show up in the numbers overnight. It takes time for them to bear fruit. So under that notion, if Obama's economic policy was so good for the economy, his last year or 2 in office would reflect those policies, right?
Obama's last year in office saw 1.87% GDP Growth. His last 2 years was 1.93%. Throughout his entire 8 years, middle class incomes declined or stayed flat, only rising just a small percentage his last quarter in office. The S&P 500, the broadest measure of the stock market, rose 1.4% for Obama's last 2 years.
Contrast that to Trump, where GDP growth is now steadily over 3%. The business community cheered the election of Trump, running up stocks in a record breaking parabolic move of over 33% in a year and a half. US corporations stopped their mass exodus out of America, since Trump promised and delivered on corporate tax cuts. So this notion that Obama gets the credit for this booming economy is demonstrably false. Trump reversed the vast majority of Obama economic policy, cutting taxes and slashing regulations. This is Trumps economy, and it started the day after he was elected.
As for todays jobs numbers - eh, no big deal. One weak number doesn't mean a turn in the economy. It may give the Fed the reason they need to lower rates. And thatll add fire to the economy again.
1
@Sports Medicine I don't know if you have noticed, but all major US markets are basically flat since the start of Trump's second year. The corrections have returned it to that point every time and last year ended negative for the year. Those corrections have been based mostly on the market pricing in Trump's economic policy (read Tariffs) and because the sugar rush of the tax policy wore off. What you really see here isn't genius - its a replay of gilded-age 1920s economic policy and we know how that ended in 1929.
104
@Sports Medicine trump promised growth at 4 - 5% and the best he's done is to tie Obama's best years.
The notion that we now have "steady" 3% growth is fantasy.
Job growth in the 28 months since trump took office is about 700,000 BELOW job growth in the 8 months before trump took office. That's an average of 25,000 fewer jobs/month.
31
@Jason
We rocketed over 30% higher since Trump was elected. A parabolic move made in just a year and a half. the Nasdaq even higher at over 40%. It takes a bit of time to digest a move like that. The stock market doesn't have to go up every month of every year in order to project a strong economy.
1
Republicans crashing a booming economy created by Democrats is always a matter of when, not a matter of if. Every recession for more than a century was the result of Republican administration using Republican economic policies of welfare for the rich and crushing working people
16
Anyone see any tweets from the White House occupant about today's jobs number ?
How about a retraction given that the last 2 monthly reports were overstated by 75,000 jobs ?
Nothing ?
Hmm ... that's strange, he's usually so eager to boast about the "booming" economy
Tell me, what kind of booming economy requires interest rate hikes ? The answer is ... well you know the answer - the economy isn't booming, hasn't been booming, and the jobs data was far better under Obama
11
If Obama was so great, then why is the economy under Donald J. Trump sporting the lowest unemployment numbers in history? Under Obama, more people were either unemployed or had simply given up on finding work at all. Not to mention his deliberate effort at ending employment opportunities that were not environmentally correct by imposing onerous regulations. Thank you.
5
I did more than fine economically through all eight years of Obama’s presidency, as did everyone I know. If Trump supporters didn’t, maybe it’s their lack of a work ethic or motivation to educate themselves to get decent jobs, instead of begging a con man like Trump to artificially protect jobs that aren’t economically viable. Maybe Trump supporters were “forgotten” for a reason.
7
@Kip,
I did well too during the Obama regime and I do not represent the media drive stereotype of the Trump supporter. I support Trump because I do not agree with the direction of modern liberalism which has failed most people n society except those recognized as elites. The Trump Revolution is a reaction to the elites and hopefully it will topple and bury them. Thank you.
1
@Southern Boy
Before the Conservative revolution a job meant union pay and benefits. Now it make diving for Uber at less than minimum wage with no benefits.
Meanwhile Trump is shipping high tech jobs to Saudi Arabia, and his Merit Based Immigration plan would bring in highly skilled workers from low wage countries to take high paying jobs from Americans instead of jobs picking vegetables and washing dishes.
Education for Americans paid for by the mega rich is the solution, but The Party of Trump thinks education is for "elites" and a waste of money.
We used to be a country of elites doing things like going to the moon. Now China is building magnetic levitation trains while Republicans try to cut Amtrak. That is the real deficit with China. They are moving into the future while Trump tries to
Make America Grovel Again.
6
Name one business owner that had a square deal with DJT. You won't find one. An expert white collar criminal is now running our country. He is doing business with us, and we can only hope we don't end up like Atlantic City.
18
Bad economy?
It’s all Trump’s fault??
The market is up 1000 points this week!
6
By that logic, the economy was awesome in 1929 right before the stock market crashed.
Why do you people even weigh in on this stuff?
10
@Dr. John Yes, and the DJIA is just about where it was in the beginning of January 2018.
3
@Dr. John
The more money that you take out of the real economy of making and buying stuff to give to shareholders as profit, the more money they have to bid up the price of stocks.
I've just watch stock prices of companies that fire people go up for decades while workers are getting brutalized. Stock markets are a bad indicator of economic health and government has been so twisted to the wants of global corporations that shareholders are now a net drain on the economy.
Save Free Markets from Capitalism. It is time to undergo tree workers/consumers for a change.
1
HI folks....I was out mowing all morning and just came in and saw the jobs report..
Is this lower jobs number:
Hillary's (or her e-mails) fault?
Obama's?
The Mueller Report?
The "Dems"?
Pelosi's?
The "Brown Caravan"?
Old Joe Bidens?
Someone PLEASE tell me who to blame for this!!!! I have to finish up mowing and I want to make sure I know who to blame and I haven't got all day to wait for a bray-tweet!
13
No, it’s the fault of anyone who doesn’t support Donald Trump. Just ask his followers.
6
The US is a mature economy, and should aim for stability rather than growth. The more one inflates a balloon the larger it gets, but the bust is with greater impact. The Fed should back off. Let prices drop - and recover to a steady state. The surge in property prices was unsustainable - nominal prices must get back to about 1987 levels to be on a normal path.
With unemployment at 3.6% most hiring will be from ‘switching’ not increase.
7
So, now the Fed is supposed to ride to the rescue for bad Administration policy that is suppressing the economy? Is this the new equivalent of Trump's father sending money to schools to keep him from being expelled?
21
When has a tax-cut to corporations and rich people have had a sustainable effect on the economy? Never.
When has spending increase revived the economy? Every time the economy hits rock bottom after the tax-cut.
What's the problem here then? Handouts to people and corporation who are doing financially better than the rest of the world.
11
"Over the last 12 months, [average hourly] earnings have risen by a solid 3.1 percent."
But the average is not a helpful statistic to describe the situation of workers at the low end of the pay scale. For example, if I earn $1 million per year and get a 3% raise ($30,000) and 10 other people each earn $20,000 per year and get a 1% raise ($200), our average salary before raises is $109,090 before raises and $112,000 after raises. That's a salary increase of 2.67%, on average. But only 1 out of 11 people received a raise of that magnitude (that's me and I received a lot more, both in percent and in absolute dollars).
In other words, the average is a meaningless statistic for income, wealth, house value, longevity, and a host of other important social statistics. It's heavily skewed, especially by values at the high end (because there's no cap at the high end of the scale, except for lifetime).
But the average is a useful dodge if you want to hide the advantages of being at the top of the heap!
16
@Duane McPherson Maybe if we stopped illegal immigration which leads to cheap labor and lower wages, the average hourly wage would be much higher. Dems don't get it.
4
MCH - If your proposal were labeled “wealth redistribution” would you still advocate for it?
2
@MCH If illegals are depressing wage growth, which I doubt, they are also lowering the unemployment numbers.
4
The more we push every button to stave off a coming recession -- tax cuts, rate cuts, quantitative easing, govt funding to specific sectors like farming -- the deeper the ultimate recession will be. Let the business cycle work its magic. We will all be better off.
10
Meanwhile, also today, Canada, one-tenth the size of the USA economy, created 27,000 jobs last month.
You'd almost think USA exporters might be shifting some production into Canada which is a member of TPP and not burdening trading partners with tariffs and trade wars.
Trump's warped trade policies don't have to have downside for everyone.
9
@Bobby Clobber
You were my favourite hockey player. Here in Quebec our economists say we will have worker shortages for a generation. Our government had a 4.4 billion dollar surplus. We are as cut off from the USA corporate neoliberalism as one can get because of our language laws. Twenty seven thousand jobs a month is the projected average each month for the next generation.
Unfortunately we cannot forecast for the collapse of America's consumer economy or the isolation that may ameliorate an economy that grows by eliminating economic sectors in order to concentrate wealth and power.
2
The shift to Mexico is indeed the wild card.
I'm watching what I saw in 2008. The phones died the other day here at my business. Clients I've dealt with for years are asking all kinds of questions about tariffs, the uncertainty is about pricing in the future.
No one can trust Trump. He's throwing out tweets that potentially can damage my entire supply chain and no one knows if it's all bluster or some half-hatched policy developing.
The "disrupter" is creating havoc. But what does he really care? He's been busy on a taxpayer-funded family vacation in Europe.
40
@John Adams
Hangin’ Out with those ‘elites’ he rails against.
2
trump will sink the economy just like W. Mark my words...even the gop senate is concerned about tariffs trump wants to impose willy nilly. He's no businessman and knows nothing about how government works.
25
@kilika
He only has 4 ways of dealing with issues - lies, insults, walls, and tariffs. Your country needs someone with a new playbook. This one is getting really old really fast.
1
I can only hope that this will be the beginning of the end for Trump's reelection opportunity. Only a downturn in the economy will save us from one of the worst presidents ever.
34
Look at all the comments declaring that the next great recession is right around the corner. Meanwhile, overall unemployment is at record low levels. Employment for black and Hispanic Americans is at record high levels. The stock market continues to soar. Inflation is at less than 2%. Wage increases are steady in all sectors of the economy. But Democrats are not happy. Why? This is all taking place under Trump's watch, that's why.
9
@paul - Apparently, you've not been paying attention to the stock markets historical loses this year. In 2007 there were also many in denial of our fragile economy but the stories from regular people were the same with regard to the loss of jobs and the difficulty of maintaining their financial well being.
9
Comments to this article by Democrats are not what is threatening the economy. Trump’s tariffs are. Please re-read the article.
10
@paul Didn't read the article, did you?
8
Funny on all the sunny thoughts thanking Mr. Trump for the "Greatest economy in the history of humans" did I get that right. It seems several factors have been just skipped over like he the man with the yellow hair does. There were less jobs created as the numbers for several months have been lowered. The growth is on the downslide to 1.5 and dropping. Oh, tariff wars are so easy to win since the consumers PAYS FOR IT! No bank loans for oil fracking companies. And another great one let the Fed cut the interest rate and what will that do. The consumer is tapped out and gee will your credit card company lower rates, here is another it seems never discussed aspect the US government under Trump and his famous tax cuts for the rich has created a massive debt increase and more importantly deficit. Who pays the $22.5 billion that the farms just got and what will they get next year since the trade war with China has no end in sight. Yes, those fiscal responsible Republicans. Read a good book on the crash of 1929 the market was humming along until the day before it crashed. Gee, has all this new money found wealth brought health insurance, child care or important everyday things into American lives. I think not, it has brought bigger boats and greed for the rich. Yes, I think a good recession will show how a nitwit is in the President chair,. Bill eventually have to be paid and there is a time of reckoning and I can see it just down the road. Jim Trautman
18
@trautman The gop will continue attempting to kill or decimate Social Security, Medicare, medicaid, spending on social and environmental issues to pay for their deficits. No way will they take money from the 1%.
11
The fixation and focus on "the unemployment rate" has got to end. As defined and reported, it ignores the many millions of people who are woefully under-employed and the additional many millions of people who, after years of trying to find a job, have given up.
17
@fact or friction Yes, but it always has. So it is, in fact, a good measure of changes in employment over time and, in fact, unemployment is at a 49 year low. You may not want this to be true, but that does not make it false.
6
Yeah, there are plenty of jobs. A lot of people have two or three.
23
@JerseyGirl
I'd agree, if not for the fact that the number of under-employed people and people who have given up looking for a job has skyrocketed since 2008.
And, that's not even considering the number of people who are "employed" but have to work two or three jobs now to try to make ends meet, or the number of people who don't have health care, or the number of people who have gone bankrupt as a result of not having health coverage, etc.
So, to simply rely on the "unemployment rate" to argue that everything's peachy is, in fact, grossly misleading.
The comments on this board today are strange. The unemployment rate is 3.6%, the lowest in more than five decades. There is little inflation. The fact that NYT readers vehemently dislike the President is not a valid measure of the economy. I would suggest that one reason that only 75,000 jobs were added to the economy last month is that there is a shortage of people to hire.
9
@mbpman. Neither is the unemployment rate. And of what benefit is a "good economy" when the actual quality of life for so many continues to head south, and inequality gets worse and worse?
"The fact that NYT readers vehemently dislike the President is not a valid measure of the economy"
7
@mbpman Ironically, when you have a shortage of workers, you look to increase your GDP by hiring immigrants.
3
@mbpman
The fact is that people are not buying enough to justify the kind of rapid expansion that makes investors and businesses expand and build up productive capacity, and hire everyone that they can find at higher wages. This keeps inflation low because the economy is getting by, it is not booming as Trump and his supporters are asserting. The economy has left people just getting by not prospering for four decades. Piling up capital does not force economic expansion as conservatives like Reagan have assured us all. Time to start seeing where changes must be made, like higher taxes to move government to pay as it goes instead of borrowing for everything.
3
Maybe someday I’ll understand why some people like to make themselves furious by imagining what their perceived enemies might be about to do.
5
@John Deel - I was having a perfectly fine day and then you had to bring up my ex-wife.
The sugar high of the tax cut is gone, replaced by the realities of Trump's shoot from the hip tariffs. Now that the 1% have banked their cash from the cuts, they'll turn on him in a minute when the consequences of his ignorant trade wars emerge with falling stock prices, bond yields, supply chain disruptions and a surge of unemployed single Mexican men, who are gainfully employed now in Mexico, coming back into the states looking for work. Accompanied by the largest budget and trade deficits in our history.
Then we'll see how his deep his support remains with Wall Street, farmers and auto workers. The winners as defined by Donald J. Trump. Feeling like winners, MAGA? Or suckers?
15
"Plunging bond yields are a sign that investors are worried that growth is about to falter." Or this may be due to the huge inpouring of 401K retirement investment money from conservative investors terrified of equities. That suggested 15-20% before tax dollars recommended for 401K/Roth/IRA has to go somewhere and economists seem to mostly miss that fact; this isn't the old pension days where financial engineering was used to hide pension underinvestment. Joe or Jane have to actually sock that dollar away, not pretend that ten cents today will become an inflation compensated dollar tomorrow (even if the accounting rules permit such idiocy for a government or company).
Crude oil prices are more interesting. In the past, perception seemed to be more than half the movement. Now, perception seems to have less effect than reality. Perhaps crude is becoming a commodity again after years of being a trader's pump and dump source of gambling income.
3
I have a new theory about Trump---he is fed up with being President and wants to tank the 2020 election. Basically, Trump is a lazy guy--given, he doesn't work very hard at being President, but it is still a job--all the hours away from the golf course, his extra-marital interests, watching TV, eating---but then some foreign dignitary arrives or all the other troublesome interruptions from Trump being Trump. So, the tank begins--tank the economy, get us involved in a small war, continue to call political and international leaders stupid, nasty, foolish --- and as the election nears, unleash some real name calling, the kind even Mitch McConnell will say---golly gee that was over the line, and for a grand finale, invite Putin over for lunch the night before the election--that should do it---Margo Largo here I come and all those lucrative deals laying out there for the number one rated President of our time.
14
@Amanda Jones - :)) He tried that same ploy last election and it got him elected.
1
@Amanda Jones
Still lots of golf and tv watching going on, this time at taxpayer expense. By the fit of that tux, a lot of eating as well. Perhaps the last option might get him out.
The Trump trade war and the Powell Fed policy of lowering interest rates to off set the bad effects of foreign retaliation is a bone head play. Lowering interest rates will drive up the stock market and that will please Trump. But the effects on the economy that is at the end of the business cycle combined with Trump's mismanagement cannot be saved by lower interest rates. The tech giants are in for an overdue anti trust investigation. The concentration of wealth and power in the US has reached disturbing heights.
5
It was always apparent, that the solid ground Obama put us on after he brought us out of recession, would disappear under trumps destructive and unconstitutional policies. It take about two years for a new presidents' policies to become law and start having an effect on society. Wall Street chose to believe and Congress chose to defend the lies of a madman and his mob. The world will suffer long and hard for it.
10
I cannot know to what degree, but this is the vacation and plant shutdown season which may be an integral part of the jobs growth decline. Later in the summer, job growth will likely increase.
3
These numbers are very disappointing.
I blame Hillary's emails, Obama, the Mueller probe (time diverted from winning), obstructionist democrats, obstructionist liberals, immigrants (obstructionist and undocumented), Hollywood elites, the fake media, SNL and NATO for shirking its military spending obligations. Have I left anyone out?
26
@Steve
/s
Some people might take this seriously.
4
@Steve - The memory of John McCain.
4
Reality Check 400000 baby bomber retire every month .Replaced with under qualified jobs dotn pay health care. More 72 million people on government assitance should tell real story. Actual job market is contracting like texile industry almost completely gone 20 million jobs. Now with robots delivering service will wipe out another 20 million jobs in very near future. Man will not be abale to compete with machines who run 24 hours a day no breaks. So only hope is every one stop buying imports to save planet our leaders dont care they got theres.
2
Great healthcare at reasonable prices has been a casualty of Obamacare insurance. People with terrible health habits that would be high risk or uninsured now pay the same rate as healthy persons. Democrats also refused to join Republican efforts to control prices charged for drugs by the big Democrat campaign contributors. Democrats should have required someone else, other than those insured, to subsidize the costs.
2
All Glory to Chairman Don.
As he told us for months and months,
these numbers are FAKE!!
5
Yay! The NYT gets to "explain" to us what these figures mean...
What these figures mean to the NYT : "We certainly hope the economy tanks - the Dems need the help for 2020!!"
5
That’s true! And President Trump is doing everything he can to make that happen!
3
The other day I. T sector in America laid off plenty of people. I came to know about it through my close relative based there. Why it’s not mentioned or Are such lay offs quite common ?
This report clearly mentions that e - commerce has eaten away 10,000 jobs per month this year totalling 50,000 more jobless people, too bad.
Trade War with each and every country has further complicated the employment position within America.
Protectionism is reasonable only to a certain extent that too it shouldn’t affect citizens badly. Protectionism is only required for protecting the rights of citizens and not the other way.
Why can’t the government encourage American businessmen to produce all kinds of goods there so that the country need not depend upon foreign countries for everything ? It will help create hundreds of thousands of jobs throughout the country. The recruitment will be a continuous process then.
Has the government ever thought how much American consumer has suffered on account of these trade wars ?
5
Please sing along with me. The melody is 'Happy days are here again'. Bankruptcy days are here again, thanks to ...You can now make up your own words.
4
A recession might be worth it if serves to oust Trump and the rest of the awful Republicans whose only purpose is to line their own pockets.
5
@Mary Rivka Amazing logic. "We had to destroy the village to save it." It would be OK if millions of people suffer financial destitution as long as it keeps Republicans from getting rich (alternatively, from having power). I always knew that was what the left thought, but I just never heard anyone say it out loud.
2
@JerseyGirl
I’d be willing to take a financial pounding to get this guy out of office. There, I said it too.
2
The sectors that were the centerpiece of the Trump campaign, manufacturing and mining, are flatlining as a direct result of the daring exploits of Tariff Man.
You know you are doing a bad job when the auto industry is begging for regulations.
This is what happens when a TV celebrity and luxury property developer floating on laundered money "disproportionately from Russia" according to his son, accidentally becomes President.
Its time for the famous punchline:
"You're fired!"
9
Unemployment rate is obsolete, inaccurate, as it overlooks the population that’s long term unemployed (anything over 6 months) or given up.
7
It also doesn’t count under employment, taking a job that pays significantly less than the one you were laid off from.
5
Great! Then tell President Trump to stop bragging about the low unemployment rate!!
2
So, here's another sign that the economy is weakening and Trump's chaotic strategies are not working. Given his pattern of behavior, we can expect him to do something outrageous later today to control the news cycle and keep his obedient base willfully ignorant of the truth.
4
And I stare pensively out the window and start feeling quite somber when I recall how my wife's BFF voted for The Gutter Rat and she continues defending her. My wife knows enough not to mention her but the deluge of news coverage does not allow me to not ruminate on her action. Everything depresses me about the criminal enterprise run out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
6
The invisible factor in these figures...is temporary workers.
More and more U.S. companies, many of the "big names" in American business, are now using temps, rather than hiring workers. Some are using thousands of temporary workers.
This creates unrealistically low unemployment figures and props up the illusion that our economy - and the American worker - is doing much better than the reality bears out.
Most families live paycheck-to-paycheck and could not absorb a $400 emergency w/out that expense jeopardizing their financial stability. These families...are our neighbors, our children's teachers, our extended family, our fellow citizens.
Temp positions provide no health care benefits, vacation time, or sick time; many companies penalize temps for calling in sick...creating unhealthy, unproductive, fearful workplaces and further demeaning workers.
Back-in-the-day we worked 9 to 5 with an hour paid lunch, health care benefits, vacation and sick time. Did we work our backsides off for our employer? You bet we did, because we were treated with dignity and respect; we didn’t live paycheck-to-paycheck, or in a constant, low-grade fear of becoming sick or injured. We were invested in our work...and our employer was invested in us.
Perhaps if we prioritize our humanity over more & more profit, we will think twice not only about how we treat workers, but also about the value of automation vs. an employed citizenry that is able to make a living wage and live with dignity.
10
@Kelly Grace Smith
Very astute observation. Temp workers seem rarely mentioned in the real numbers--what's with that?
2
We cannot expect good job reports now. Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow.
1
My guess is part of the sour outlook from Wall St. is they are seeing the huge increase in the deficit with the Ryan / McConnell / Trump tax cuts.
$600 Billion is going to $1 Trillion.
The projected ten year increase in the debt is $12 Trillion which is $80,000 per taxpayer.
It is projected we will be paying more for interest on the debt than for defense depending on how interest rates go.
Wall St. asked for those tax cuts and were thrilled for 6 months or so.
Then they see the problems resulting from getting what they asked for.
3
How can economists create hype about a recession when we are at record unemployment? Oh, yes, economists need to publish something or they are out of work.
We are in another bubble. When employment is this low, there are many people "employed" who, well, you wish were working for your competition.
We should not try to sustain this bubble. Let our economy ease into a more stable state. Propping up the bubble will just cause the consequences to be worse when it bursts.
4
Maybe we just need some more "tax cuts for the job creators".
To be paid for by us and our children and grandchildren.
I had small manufacturing company with 40 employees.
The only reason I would add more employees is if I had more business.
Tax cuts went for a new BMW and vacations to Europe.
In the case of the Trump tax cuts, they went for stock buy backs that drive up the price of the stock price.
And corporate CEOs get bonuses in stock and usually proportional to the the increase in the stock price.
7
One of the great underreported stories of the 21st century economy is the decimation of jobs in the retail sector.
Is it because retail is in all 50 states, whereas manufacturing is concentrated in a handful of states that determine who will be president?
Is it because manufacturing has a long history of unionization that created many of those revered middle class jobs?
Regardless, it is certainly disturbing to see those at the lower end of the pay scale take another economic hit.
5
Worried about jobs? Just wait until the world's most knowledgeable economist opines that all will be well. President trump (aka-The world's most knowledgeable economist0, Has imposed his tariffs. Now all those jobs that went overseas will come back and all will be well in the greatest country on God's Green Earth. Donald the Magnificent is the only one who can do it.
7
I made $25k right out of college in 1983 with N Engineering degree. My flight attendant roommates were making $18-20k in the A schedule.
So these $40-45 pay is pitiful 36 years later. Especially when you look at CEO pay!
10
@MJS It took me six years to get a "real" job out of college, using my degree and making $29K. Prior to that, I worked in jobs making somewhere around $7 an hour. This was in the 90s. I now make in the low six figures, but have student loans on a Master's degree that helped me advance my career- but the more money you make, the more you pay on the federal loans. It's a devil's bargain. And don't get me started on health care...
3
It may be a good time for Trump to resuscitate his old claim that these reports can't be believed. They should be believed only when they are good. And, if they aren't good next month, then the methodology needs to change and the person in charge fired.
5
Jobs report is just fine. Unemployment is still low compared to major economies in the world. There still is a shortage of highly skilled workers. Overall those with skills required in the market place have jobs and a choice at different jobs.
6
@Girish Kotwal
And the rest of the workforce?
So, it's all good if you were fortunate enough to have a good education and chose wisely your field of employment.
2
@Girish Kotwal Ask yourself why there is a shortage of highly skilled workers. Everything costs too much money, including education and health care and wages are stagnant! The middle class does not exist in Trumpworld.
2
@atb - If people who want to land a great job that pays well or provide themselves with the most opportunity; they will need to invest in their education, no doubt. Also, need to perform research on the markets that are experiencing growth and focus educational and professional goals on the research results.
3
Well, one hopes we don’t Crash again right away. But if we do, the beauty part is that unlike the last time greedheads and Republicans ran the economy into Homer Simpson’s chestnut tree, this time the whys and wherefores aren’t subtle or tricky at all.
The problem’s easy to see: Trump, and chaos. After that we can get into the insanity of pumping an economy up the way we have these last two years. And the beauty part is, we haven’t even pumped it up all that much.
5
Your reporting concentrates on what the Fed is going to do, interest rates, and statistics, what accounting firms and banks think. How does this affect the ordinary person? You are giving us a privileged peek into what they are thinking, but I'm not sure how that affects me and how interested I am in what they think. In the first place, they're always saying what will be in their interest. They don't care about me at all..
8
If only we can get those 3.6% to quit looking for work - we will have 0% unemployment and Donald will have Made America Great Again.
10
I'm tired of the claim that tax cuts create jobs. They don't. Customers purchasing goods and services create jobs. No business hires more people simply because the company got a tax break. When demand goes beyond the ability of the current staff to fulfill the orders, then, and only then, do companies hire more workers.
We also have to realize that at 3.6% (official) unemployment we are getting to the bottom of the proverbial barrel. There isn't a huge labor force available for immediate hire. Yes there are some jobs going begging (mostly the ones that most white Americans do not want) and there are many people who might fill these jobs except they have problems that cause most employers to reject them, or they are not able to work due to illness or family situations that require them to stay at home.
15
@Jaffa Bozare wrong...the money goes to the CEOs and top executives, a bit for the shareholders, and crumbs for the workers...
9
@Jaffa Bozare, et al.,
Yes, corporations can, if they decide, to invest the proceeds of the tax cut in R&D, new plant and equipment, but that spending presumes a customer and the pre-decision research tells the company if the customer wants that new product.
In reality, those kind of decisions take years to decades before they result in significant growth in employment. Yes, there are some hires for R&D, market research, et cetera but that is not significant in terms of the overall level of employment.
Sadly, a lot of company executives make the decision to reward themselves for their skills and hard work that resulted in getting the tax break in the first place. That leaves little, if anything, to plow into R&D. It does increase the gap between those in the investment economy versus those in the wage economy and those at the top want that gap to get larger, not smaller.
2
If a glass is 96.4 percent full, you're not going to be able to add much more to it. It's no surprise that the jobs report took a dip after the robust growth started last year. The jobs report is not an overall indicator of our economy's health, just a part of it. But of course the Democrats are going to spin it as if the sky is about to fall.
10
@Kurt Pickard Not a bad thought, but you'd see stronger wage growth if the glass was that full.
3
@Kurt Pickard
It's not 96.4% full because about 10% of people between 25 and 55 have stopped looking for work and ~40% of those over 55 have either been forced into early retirement or had to take jobs with much lower salary or piecemeal work after been laid off.
13
I love seeing the Trumpists who crowed the last two months about how meaningful the numbers were now flip on a dime and swear the numbers don’t mean anything. I guess flipping the Left the bird covers all maneuvers.
The rest of us get stuck with icky stuff, like looking at actual trend lines, numbers over time, stuff like that.
Bravo, sir. Can’t wait to see your rationalization of the upcoming growth numbers.
8
If we take into account all the people who have stopped looking for work and the millions of people working in the self-employed 'gig' economy who are never counted, the real unemployment figure on any given day probably tops 15 percent or more. Most people are struggling in this great economy. Do not believe the low numbers of unemployment that the government tells you. It is simply not true.
12
Approximately 24.4 million households (of four) in our country live on under $25,000/year. That's $2083/month to buy food, pay rent and utilities, health insurance, income and other taxes and a vehicle. These folks are all considered to be employed. There are 127.59 million households in America, approximately 19% of our country live in dire poverty. This is $12/hour, last year more than 20.6 million people actually made less than $10/hour. Again all of these people are considered employed and you see them everyday. They serve you food in restaurants, they ring up groceries, they pump gas in New Jersey, they delivery newspapers, they mow lawns. These statistics in this article mean absolutely nothing because in addition to these unemployed people at least 19% of our people live in poverty. And then where is the number for the folks who have given up looking for work - it's hard to find - the homeless, the street addicts, the people on assistance, the people who depend on family for their funds. This rosy picture is a joke, our real economy is nothing like this picture. I'd like to see a real snapshot of the US job market with dollars and cents at this moment, not this government doctored report. Vote in 2020 and not for Donald Trump....
30
The economy has been decidedly mixed in recent months. The services sector, which accounts for 88% of GDP, keeps expanding and consumers are still spending. But manufacturing output fell in the first four months of the year and the housing market has remained soft. The market likes this lower jobs numbers because it increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. Now, for the people wanting recession, note that it is the lower to middle class people who will be bearing the brunt of it, along with retirees who depend on interest income. The rich will come through just fine, like always. Wishing misfortune on bunch of people because they don't like the current president? Heartless and mean, just like what they claim the president of being.
3
@Chat Cannelle Don’t worry, Chat, most people don’t want a recession and don’t wish harm on other people, wwhther or not they like Trump. I suggest you worry about the heartless and mean president who is actually causing harm to a vast number of people.
13
@Chat Cannelle We do not accuse Trump of being heartless and mean, because he is a sociopath, and all he cares about is somehow staying out of jail. LOCK HIM UP.
1
President Trump is so out of touch from the working realities of Americans. President Trump has never worked an honest eight hour day, or a honest 40 hour week in his life. He worked very hard at inheriting $419 million, from his father, and according to tax information of his 1986 to 1994 years, he lost most of it. His failed businesses left mountains of debt, eventually absorbed by the American taxpayer, when he went bankrupt 4-6 times. Most Americans can barely survive one bankruptcy.
18
One thing is certain. Nothing ever stays the same and this is true for our economy as with anything else. When you take a tax cut up front it has consequences down the road. it is not only that it feeds current deficits, but as the economy slows that deficit will grow as our under funded government tries to make up the difference with more spending needed for essential services. Some will try to cut those services, but the horse will already out of the barn and the GOP having created the deficits will not deny its base the needed extra spending.
The tortoise and the hare come to mind with Trump and the irresponsible GOP as the hare, an ironic outcome as they have always billed themselves as the 'responsible' ones.
8
Good analysis. Although I love to see the commentators here praying for recession (talk about party before country) Had a comment rejected yesterday on suggesting that if someone wanted to live in Elizabeth Warren's America they should move to Venezuela. OK - maybe an unacceptable level of snark in this. (Although this pales compared to what gets meted out for Trumpy Trump in this echo chamber). This said, my point is valid and perhaps worthy. Is Elizabeth Warren corrupt to similar to the crowd in Venezuela? I doubt it. But what Elizabeth Warren wants to create (picking the winners and losers) sets up an environment and conditions for corruption of Venezuelan proportions. I welcome the replies that will no doubt come my way, and wish all of them a great day!
3
@My Aim Is True My only comment is why don't you just concentrate on what you have to say. It would be a lot clearer. So what if people disagree. That's life.
2
Why do people put so much stock in these phony monthly job reports. The crenellated graph should alert everyone that this information is unreliable. Like the polls that showed Hillary winning, the jobs number is based on a telephone survey in which $15 per hour workers call landlines or knock on doors. Who knows who is answering and why somebody would spend 20 minutes shooting the breeze with a government worker. You can learn far more about the state of he economy by driving around your town and looking at what stores are opening and closing, which are hiring and which look rundown.
9
@Rick Then please tell Donald Trump to stop crowing about the very low unemployment numbers.
@Rick Of course, the numbers are phony when they’re bad but real when they’re good.
1
Nobody likes a recession but we are long past due for one. If it has to happen let it be right before the election. We can get it over with and move on with a new president.
20
The difference between jobs in the Trump era and Obama era is that Obama's jobs paid barely enough to keep the millennials at home in their parent's basemen, whereas the Trump's jobs pay enough that people may actually be able to support a family. Thank you.
5
@Southern Boy
Oh Boy. I'm sure I won't be the first or the last to point out that Obama took office at the start of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression when the economy was hemorrhaging jobs to the tune of several hundred thousand a month, and more. With so many people unemployed, you know, excess labor, employers could afford to be picky while job seekers could not. The result was lower wages and stagnant wage growth.
You're welcome.
14
@Southern Boy, no the increase in wages has not been very substantial at all since Trump came in. There has been some; admittedly, slightly higher than they were under Obama but not by much. Of course, the economy was in toilet as Obama got in to office and he pulled it out and kept it on track for a long time. Trump and his tariffs may be destroying that as he eventually does with everything. The worst part is his refusal to acknowledge climate change means we are ceding high-paying jobs in new energy sectors to many other countries including China.
9
@Southern Boy By many metrics, Trump is a failure. And I don’t mean in his choice of evening wear in England.
Check out gasoline prices at the pump. They are way up. Check out healthcare costs. The same. That's eating into any job gains by the middle class and the poor.
Unemployment rate under Trump has dropped 1.2%. Under Obama, unemployment dropped close to 5%. Trump will never match it although he may exceed it in the other direction.
Stock market has been static overall since November 2017.Dow has about a 25% rise under Trump. The Dow under Obama rose 300%. During Trump's time in office, the Dow will never match that.
And so on.
2
Reading these comments is just sad. Yesterday, it was mocking Trump for his appearance in Normandy, instead of honoring the fallen. Today, it is relishing at the possibility of a slowing economy (even though job hiring is still up) to give Dems a chance to eject Trump from office. To heck with low- to moderate-income families that live paycheck to paycheck, right?
11
@Aleister: Did you happen to catch the interview that he gave to Laura Ingraham just before he made his canned speech? Did you notice that American farmers are now on welfare because of trump's utter incompetence and failure to do his job?
Cut out the defense of this abhorrent individual and start loving your country for a change.
3
@Aleister, remember that mocking Trump is their patriotic duty in their minds. A mind is a horrible thing to waste, remember.
1
@Aleister, so Trump’s policies have the effect of actually hurting vulnerable people, but you are more upset that some people may see a glimmer of silver lining in the dark cloud of Republican economics? Wishing doesn’t make it so. Maybe we should focus on what is really happening.
1
I usually see 3-4 freight trains past though our town each day.
Lately the number is closer to 3-4 per week.
Not a good sign.
7
@mungomunro Its the same with the cut logs piling up in Coos Bay, not a good sign indeed, of course this has a lot to do with Georgia Pacific closing lumber mills all over Oregon to allow the Chinese to mill their own, sometimes onboard Chinese ships equipped with fully functioning factories setting off our coast, which they can then sell us.
10
UBI is needed- universal basic income. listen to Andrew Yang - automation will decimate retail and low skilled repetitive jobs like trucking. only gonna get worse! UBI helps us refocus on training for mew skills and modernizing our workforce. why resist the inevitable?
6
Normally, I would fear a recession. But in my mind I’m rooting for this one as it may be the only way to guarantee Trump being a one term president. These are not normal times.
15
@Raydeohed It's quite sad you're rooting for a recession as a means to eject Trump. Because you won't suffer financially, for it. But millions of low- to moderate-income of Americans would. Then again, that's not your problem, is it? As long as the Boogeyman is out of office, right?
3
When the recession hits newly hired workers will be the first laid off and wage increases will dry up. Simple math says that current wage increases of 3 percent barely cover 2 percent rate of inflation. And as others have said benefit increases have been marginal at best leaving little security for embattled workers. The Fed has little room to help an ailing economy as interest rates are at already at low levels.
Trump has promised his base manufacturing jobs, but it is not that sector which is fueling job growth the service sector which has been helped by mandated wage increases, but is vulnerable to a slowing economy as corporations make due with less. Trump has shot himself and our economy in the foot with reckless words and tariffs and the only bitter sweet thing that can be said is that may make it easier to vote in a more responsible president.
10
Although I dislike Trump and almost everything he stands for, I think he is doing the right thing in applying the trade tariffs to China. China is an enemy of the US and Europe (and the rest of the World actually) whose main goal is the export of its awful Orwellian communist State. We opened our economies to China while they have not done the same, as it is very hard for US or European companies to prosper in China! They benefit from liberal economies while maintaining their economy closed to the West. They also steal intellectual property from the West without any concern or consequences! The trade relationships with China benefits both parts, but they are always designed to widely benefit one of the parts more! We should stop focusing on short term issues and start focusing on what's good for the long term (not just on economic terms, as it will be pointless to have a strong economy if the lives of the people in the West are dominated by the Chinese state).
11
@Diogo Martins You got this. For China policy, an economic trade war is only a 'facade': the deeper conflict is a comprehensive geopolitical adversary. That's why confronting China is one of the few policies Trump could get supports from the Demoncrats and other Western allies. We've lost the bet on China. The West wished the state could become 'one of us' because of economic investments and developments, yet now we see a new 'Japan Empire '(pre-1945 Japan) that is going to challenge the whole world. It's time for the West to correct this mistake.
6
Tariffs are a tax on YOU. if you like higher taxes on the middle class and poor them by all means you should love trump. I don’t want to pay the trump tax on all goods made around the world.
2
These numbers to not reflect the underemployment of those who must work two jobs to bring in a solid paycheck every two weeks.
28
@J.B.Wolffe comments like yours really give me pause. When you find a system that better provides the freedom and opportunity of market-driven capitalism with its attendant uncertainty, and reliance on the individual vs the collective, and which has a necessary dynamism that yes requires that people sometimes have two jobs, let me know. I won't hold my breath
5
@My Aim Is True Europeans, for the most part, do not have to work two jobs, to make ends meet. Why should we Americans have to? Europeans have much better health care than we do, yet ours is the most expensive in the world. So much for free market capitalism.
10
@My Aim Is True Maybe costs of health care, lobbying interests over citizens interest and even regulation of educational costs could off set that instead of your brazen stupidity.
2
Too many people have conveniently short memories. Let me remind some of our commenters and readers that it was President Obama who saved our economy and the American worker. When the phrase "falling off a cliff" is used recklessly in reference to our former president, it is not only an exaggeration but a downright lie. It was Bush who single-handedly triggered the Great Recession, second to the Great Depression in its devastating effects. Yes, it is true that current presidents own the economy. But it is also true that Trump, the quintessential crooked so-called entrepreneur, inherited an employment market with exponential gains under the policies of the Obama administration. The jury is still out as to how Trump will be judged. But so far his arbitrary and ill-thought out "remedies" are overshadowing any lasting gains, to wit, tariffs and trade wars. With an ominous Trumpian trajectory, it is no surprise that we will soon need another Democratic president to be at the helm. That can not happen soon enough for this American.
112
@Kathy Lollock President Obama didn't save the economy or the American worker. Most of that credit goes to U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and his pushing of TARP equity investments into the nation's largest banks to calm the markets. That's what saved the economy. Please do not re-write history.
6
@Aleister, Obama's support for TARP was critical though; he was already the nominee and Republicans at first balked at supporting it. Then the Dow continued to tank precipitously and the GOP Congressmen got on board. Plus Obama's stimulus package, studies have shown, did spur the economy. TARP kept the bottom from falling out a la 1929 but it did not create economic growth like the stimulus did.
14
@jonathan The stimulus package was fully bipartisan. Obama and any person in office would have signed that bill. No matter how you slice or dice it, it comes down to Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson (ex-Goldman Sachs), not a Harvard Law Review editor, who saved the economy at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009. And the FDIC, at Paulson's urgining at the end of 2008, providing a temporary liquidity guarantee prorgram (TLGP) that fully insured non-interest bearing transactional deposits without limit to prevent a run on our banks. Once the bottom of the barrel was saved, it wasn't terribly difficult to get the American economy restarted again, but it certainly took Obama a very long time.
2
Two thirds of GDP is consumer spending.
When a massive national sales/VAT tax (aka tariff), which is a massive drag on economy, is levied unilaterally by a nitwit who is manifestly clueless about business and how economies and trade works, what did you expect?
28
How I wish media and our government would cease providing woefully misleading employment/unemployment rates, or something resembling a tear-sheet handed out by the Labor Department:
"The share of Americans working or looking for a job was unchanged at 62.8 percent." What does that mean NYT? 62.8% are working AND looking? Why would those stats be combined. Where are the links to explain?
A national rate of 3.6% looks marvelous on paper and in the news- until one factors in rates city-by-city-county-by-county and state-by-state.
Add in those who aren't counted as unemployed because they aren't registered with their State's Unemployment departments- because they haven't worked and/or they applied but do not quality or they applied but do not have sufficient earnings in the right quarters to obtain UBI benefits:
Anyone can obtain their local and state's monthly unemployment statistics from The Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) by typing in a search bar "Local Area Unemployment Statistics for_________"
Calaveres County, Ca had an unemployment rate of 16.2% and Alameda County had 2.7% (April). Clarke County, Alabama had 6.0% while DeKalb County had 3.2%.
Of course these rates are used for political purposes; a bludgeon for some-an affirmation for others. But, what do they really mean?
11
@Candlewick
The share of Americans working or looking for a job (aka the workforce participation rate) is arguably the single most important data point as relates to employment. The reason is that it is a loose proxy for the number of people in the economy who have not given up. When a person gives up looking for work over any extended period of time, their ability to get back in the game at some future date becomes bleak. When increasing numbers of people give up looking for work, you have a long-term drag on the economy that can last a decade or more.
1
@Bob
I've been there numerous times over a 45 year work history. My point is particularly- that information rarely comes to the proverbial fore when the headlines only report the basics. But...combining "working and looking" into one metric without anything other than the words (as in this NYT piece) is rather meaningless.
Every where I drive, stores, warehouses, and offices are advertising help wanted, no experience needed. Public transportation serves many of the locations. Starting pay is advertised at $13 to $22 an hour. Why is it hard for people to take those jobs and get back in the game?
Trump thinks a global trade war is the best thing that can happen to us. We better fasten our seat belts, it could get rough. Trump is irrational and unpredictable and he is surrounded by sycophants.
15
Somehow I bet Donny conveniently forgets this one.
5
These statistics are meaningless today. What we really need is an "index of meaningful employment," something that would capture facts that really matter to the average person, and that provide a more complete picture:
1. Discouraged workers
2. Underemployed workers
3. Workers with no benefits, or unusable benefits
4. Permanent "temporary" workers
5. Workers classified as independent contractors for tax shenanigans
6. Workers earning less than minimum/living wage
I am certain that trained statisticians/economists/social scientists could frame this issue in objective terms without signalling ideological bias. (Something I am not capable of.) All that is needed is the will to do it.
22
@whaddoino
Amen. The current two-category statistics (Employed/Unemployed) are meaningless without the reality of what being employed means in today''s America.
8
@whaddoino don't forget workers who are working more than one job because of #6.
7
@whaddoino
Have you not read a BLS Employment Situation report?
Every month it provides statistics on those working part time for economic reasons, those marginally attached to the labor force, long-term unemployed, and discouraged workers.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Elsewhere on the BLS site, you will find information on benefits and compensation.
https://www.bls.gov/bls/proghome.htm#wages
1
Trump cultists trying to spin this as a "win" is hilarious. Trump has no idea how to run a "business" ; let alone a country. He still thinks Americans do not pay tariffs. Businesses are cutting back because of uncertainty. Vote out Trump/GOP. Ray Sipe
34
The tax cut mushroomed the federal deficit so Trump needs the tariffs to fill some of the hole. The poor and middle class , price sensitive unlike the wealthy , will be crushed .
Winning!
13
Here we go again--trickle down destroys the economy and a Democrat will be left to dig us out of the mess.
27
@Fester Yes, and the Republicans will spin it as a success for them anyway, and their base will eat it up
1
The big takeaway should be a wider view.
According to BLS numbers Trump has created 5,410,000 jobs in his 28 months in office. But during his last 28 months Obama created 6,112,000 jobs. Same number of months with a clean hand off and Trump is substantially under performing Obama even after a $2 trillion tax cut to juice the economy.
Trump always claims he's doing better than Obama. That he inherited a terrible mess. Trump can lie, but numbers don't.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
29
@medianone Trump believes in alternative truths...numbers don’t matter.
I believe that if we are not already in a recession that we will hit it within a few months. This economy has been trashed like an Indy race car. Whereas it usually takes a second term to see the repercussions of a republican President's crash course in economy, Trump is a bankruptcy monster with absolutely no self-control.
If we hit a recession this fast, Trump will be a guaranteed ONE-term president. However, I urge democratic presidential candidates to stay on target with Progressive Agenda and resist campaigning on the failed Trump experiment. Stay away from trying to win with swing votes. This was Obama's weakness.
4
Trump is destroying the Obama economic recovery and boom. He destroys anything he touches.
12
Under Trump's brutish and malevolent 'guidance', this economy shall suffer a reversal; can't we see that the inequality and the ongoing segregation will impact negatively the well-being of the majority of the people, irrespective of how well it may remain for the 1%?
4
First, stop using the "unemployment rate" as a valid indicator of the economy. As long as you continue to use that you will not understand the reality that most Americans face: unreliable jobs at lower pay, without benefits or long term security. Great for Wall St. and the investor class; bad for the majority of Americans, which means bad for the consumer-driven economy.
The slight - almost minuscule - uptick in wage growth is a far cry from restoring the economic security that American workers once enjoyed. And even that's due in large part to FORCED minimum wage increases in many states, over the objections of Republicans.
If the economy is to escape the "boom and bust" cycles we've experienced since Reagan launched "trickle down" on us, we need to return the mechanisms of the economy back to what we had before Reagan: much higher tax rates on wealth, especially on short term profits; lower rates on long term capital gains to incentivize investment in creating new businesses, expanding existing ones; raising wages and benefits and reestablishing pensions. Heavy investment by the government in green and renewable energy development, especially in areas where carbon-based and extraction industries are the main job producers.
We are stuck in an unhealthy economy by choice - the choice of the 1% and Corporate America that are sucking the wealth from the bottom 99%. It's long past time to make new choices. "Doing the same thing over and over..." gets you the same results.
280
@Kingfish52 - Well said....This is very on point as to how and why we are where we are at, as well as, this is and will be unsustainable...i.e. there is a breaking point in our current economic model.
18
@Kingfish52
The monthly job creation number is a key indicator of what happened. The fact that "jobs created" was 'way below what was predicted, and what was predicted was roughly 50,000 LESS jobs than in April, indicates that the Trump's actions are basically burning down the house from the inside, even if it still looks pretty from the street.
The prognosticators figured things were getting worse, but in fact, they are far worse than even predicted. That's the takeaway.
16
@Kingfish52
We need truly visionary new leadership to enact the sensible and critically needed ideas that you propose. Making war weapons, trying to export unhealthy meats (let alone "unhealthy" corporate healthcare - to the Brits, no less) and often frivolous tech. gizmos with unthought-through ethical baggage isn't such a hot plan. Green and renewal energy jobs, innovative infrastructure and transportation investments - these sorts of things are the road ahead. And China is now heavily investing in all of them. Fingers crossed we elect a visionary president in 2020 - one not tied to the status quo by corporate campaign contributions.
11
Tariffs will continue to lower jobs. Loss of supplies to manufactuer's, loss of jobs as shift to overseas production for China imports, significant agriculture losses, all, will continue to cost us billions per month in GDP losses and job losses.
Notice there is no difference in the fall rate of unemployment between Obama vs Trump/Tax cuts.
CNBC has a headline "Dow surges 350 points, retakes 26,000 after weak jobs report spurs rate-cut hopes".
In other words, investors benefit at the expense of workers, at least where we are now. I hope that makes it painfully clear that a surging stock market is not synonymous with a strong economy.
14
@William Fang
Of course. The stock market is a function of corporation value, which benefit from low wages and many other things that are worse for workers.
The stock market goes down when there's lots of regulation put in place to reduce inequality and regulate the excesses of capitalism.
The stock market goes up when someone like Trump comes in because they know that he'll eliminate dozens of regulations, he'll be cooperate to lobbyists and their schmoozing, and allow unbridled growth of corporations at the expense of the population itself.
The question isn't the numbers of jobs....the question is the quality of jobs.
Many of these "jobs" being counted are not full-time well-paid jobs....they're part-time, gig economy jobs, which have no benefits and are very unstable.
16
The revisions of the employment numbers has me worried. One, statistically, it seems like huge number to revise down (75,000) during a supposedly good quarter. Also, the revision downward is close/same as new jobs created last month. Second, the political win this gave POTUS last month now seems suspicious. I hope the jobs report in the future is not going to be seemingly padded every time POTUS needs a distraction.
10
The problem with the top line data for the U.S. economy, such as GDP growth and wage growth, is that they are uneven. This is evidenced by the growing wealth gap. If I had 10 children (Heaven forbid!) and the eldest obtained a 30 % wage increase while the wages of the other 9 children remained flat, this would give me an 'average wage growth' of 3 %.
Same with the GDP figures, that are skewed by inventory build-ups; and unemployment growth, which deviously includes those who work just one day a month, while deviously ignoring those who have given up looking for a job.
And these sorry figures have occurred in an economy artificially boosted by a 1.5 trillion dollar injection of debt, massive deregulation and tax incentives that have achieved unprecedented individual wealth while leaving infrastructure in tatters.
Welcome to Trumponomics. Oligarchonomics? Dunceonomics? You name it.
30
@Hamid Varzi deviously unemployment has been calculated pretty much the same way over the last 50 years. To be devious you have to change it without telling anyone. In this case they have used the same metric as always. In fact unemployment is about as low as it can go. Any more stimulus will just allow workers to quit and look for a better job - frictional unemployment goes up as economy improves.
Question really is will the economy slump in the next year? That likelihood has increased with this report. We will need to see a few more months before we can say. The Fed can’t add that much stimulus, rates are already low. A real recession would need fiscal stimulus. But McConnell and Trump have greatly diluted the countries ability with add fiscal stimulus by running a huge deficit.
3
@Kyle Samuels You're right Kyle we have used the same flawed metrics for fifty years, neatly dovetailing with the introduction of Milton Friedman economics and relinquishing the gold standard, these very malleable numbers, combined with the big lie about inflation to use a back door method of doing away with S.S., have allowed the 1% to flourish as the rest have been reduced to serfdom.
3
These monthly "first print" job numbers are always somewhat misleading and always revised later, and Fed won't do more than raise a Jamesean eyebrow at them. The downward revisions of March and April surprises matter as much as May - the Fed can be expected to do what it did in the 2016 Election cycle: i.e. whatever it takes to satisfy both Trump and the new AOConomists by coddling deficits. That's why markets are up on this news.
2
What's to complain about? People who used to be able to support a family with one job are now working at 2 or 3 jobs to support their family. Ain't job creation a wonderful thing!
57
Of course it is softening. Like a long-time heroin addict, it is coming off the very brief high attained from the Trump tax cuts which managed only to briefly extend the unprecedented Obama expansion. The continued growth is hampered by trade fights and tariffs with virtually all our major trading partners. Anyone who doesn't not think we are in for a recession late this year or next does not understand the situation.
17
Honestly, why is this a shock to anyone? Most economists predicted that the Trump tax cuts would temporarily juice the economy, then adjust to the downside later on. This is exactly what is happening - very predictable. Less predictable is the new chaos being sown by Trump's tariffs against China and Mexico. One certainty we know is that business hates uncertainty, so expect less investment and hiring down the road. The only silver lining here is that maybe the majority of Americans will wake up to the danger of Trump and vote him and his Republican boot lickers out of office next year.
29
With 3.6% unemployment, you just can't get much lower. So this is a solid number.
The bottom line is that under Trump, the middle class has more jobs than at any time in the last 50 years.
The Times never does understand the economy.
8
But we’re still not counting those who have given up looking for work or those who work part-time but want full time.
11
@Amy The growth in employment, along with the growth in the stock market did not start with Trump, but it does appear to be ending with him. Republicans never seem to understand the economy.
6
@Amy
Trump and republicans have trashed this economy at a record rate, proving once again that trickle down economics is a failed theory.
Republicans do not understand the economy.
4
It's long past the time that the mainstream media stopped carrying the water for this administration's amateur hour economists who keep hyping the "roaring" economy canard. It's not.
Statistics are what they are and the facts bear out that during the last 28 months the Trump economy added 5,689,000 jobs compared with 6,112,000 jobs added during Barack Obama's final 28 months in office ending in January 2017.
Under Trump the labor force participation rate is also lower today, 62.8%, versus the 62.9% which is what it was when Obama left office.
If anything, that number should be significantly higher given that the U.S. population has increased by over 6 millon since 2016.
Considering the whopping $1.5 trillion tax cut mainly for the uber rich and corporate CEOs we were sold the snake oil that the sweetners would create more jobs and the tax cut would pay for itself in added government revenues.
The opposite occurred. The 2018 deficit ballooned to $300 billion and the national debt soared by an additional $3 trillion.
It doesn't take a Nobel Prize winning economist to see that the Trump economy is a house of cards. But note this: The Wall Street mouse-clicking day traders and hustlers are giddy with excitement now that a cut in interest rates is inevitable.
For the chattering masses, the good news is that hourly pay went up by 6 cents, enough to pay for a one-year membership at Costco.
Just remember though, paying more per Trump tariffs is patriotic.
86
Living wage? Healthcare benefits? Uh huh...
16
Just like he squandered his daddy's fortune, now he's "squandering" Obama's economy with ignorance and arrogance.
73
But they don't tell you how many it lost? And that about 90% of the so called jobs. Are P/T nothing you can live on.
12
Let me guess. Republicans will respond with a demand for another tax cut for the rich, to sustain the sugar high.
14
75,000 jobs
74, 000 jobs paying $7.25/hour
1,000 jobs paying $800,000/yr.
I’m looking for a general strike nationwide by anyone not making a minimum of $15/hour.
If a business can’t pay a living wage, let them fold. !
37
The worst lie is not that China and Mexico pay the tariffs, that are actually paid by American consumers. The even worse lie, that is being accepted by many in the media, is that the pain to American consumers and farmers is worth it because in the long-run we will be eventually better off because of the tariffs now. The exact opposite is the case. Tariffs make the country that imposes them poorer as their protected businesses become less efficient and noncompetitive.
Gandhi was a great statesman but a horrible economist. Just as the ignorant argue that American workers who earn $15 per hour should not have to compete with Chinese workers who make $2 per hour, Gandhi thought that Indian workers should not have to compete with American and European workers who have the benefit of modern machines. As a result, India adopted protectionism. In 1947, the per capita income of India was similar to those of countries such South Korea. By 1977, the per capita income and standard of living in South Korea was many times that of India. India has since largely abandoned protectionism and has benefited immensely from free trade. Just as David Ricardo proved would be the case when he developed the concept of comparative advantage...."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205253
1
@Lance Brofman With all due respect Mr. Bronfman I feel it’s less about how much whom is paid, its more about what $15/hr buys you in America as opposed to what $2/ hour buys you in China. $15/hr, (which for some ungodly reason is considered big bucks, when bankers( who subscribe to seekingalpha) and manufacturers selling out American workers are taking home billions), won’t even get you 1/2 a studio apartment in San Francisco, Seattle or the other Uber liberal, tech hub, sanctuary cities that pay the princely sum of $15/hr. Is this the message we’re sending to our working class that we want to shove them down to third world status so a chosen few can make enormous sums, because that is exactly what globalization has brought we get their cheap t shirts in exchange for the loss of our middle class, to base a narrative on how much better of people are because they get those cheap Chinese goods even though it cost them their jobs that afforded them a decent life seems disingenuous to say the least. There have been numerous articles with photos over the years, even in The F.T., that describe how Chinese workers live in company dorms or cubicles with bunk beds and chicken wire for privacy, is this how we should treat OUR working class so alpha males can make billions? Or let me guess we going to retrain former factory workers to become tech geniuses, more likely physical therapists for hedge fund owned outfits as long as Medicare picks up the tab.
2
What else can Trump do to torpedo the economy?
We're about to find out.
Why aren't the Republicans doing anything to stop Trump from torpedoing the economy? Democrats would pitch in with Republicans to stop Trump's craziness. Republicans must want to torpedo the economy.
Trump, at least, is incompetent and unbalanced.
Republicans know exactly what they're doing.
Anyone who votes for the Republicans shares the blame.
12
No worries Times Readers the market will love the lousy numbers which all but insure a call from the Trumpster to Powell, negative interest rates could be in our future to keep the false economy afloat and the rich of both parties happy. I must say the hypocrisy in all this is stunning though after eight years of zero bound rates under President Obama, I loved the guy too, but facts are facts, the Fed has been picking winners and losers under Dems and Repubs for decades, the winners have been the rich, the losers the working class who are hurt by globalization and and small savers unable to participate in the market casino, the scary part is the longer this whole charade is allowed to continue the worse the fallout will be whether in the form of a financial comeuppance or a blood in the street revolt when what’s left of the working class and the destitute have finally had enough of the rich controlling both parties, the new hot job market will be in private security, if you’ve ever been to Palm Beach there’s evidence it’s already a growth industry with the Uber Rich and their bodyguards in tow and armed guards in front of the local synagogue. How is this neo liberal, free market society working out folks.
3
I suppose it's naïve to just say that maybe analysts expect to much, divine as their powers of prognostication are. 75,000 newly employed workers are no doubt cursing Trump this moment while belatedly thanking Obama.
1
I suppose it's naïve to just say that maybe analysts expect to much, divine as their powers of prognostication are. 75,000 newly employed workers are no doubt cursing Trump this moment while belatedly thanking Obama.
Please, God, stop the economy. Bring unemployment and poverty. Knock our heads together. Whatever it takes to bring us to our senses.
1
Trump has used chaos as a means of distraction while he lies, cheats and manipulates his way to private riches. He only cares if the economy tanks, or his base is upset, because that will ruin his money making efforts both now and after he has left the office. Our economy and the global economy is complex and far beyond the likes of Trump's understanding. So he continues his chaotic approach until it hurts his pocketbook. All the time calling all positive outcomes his doing and all negative outcomes someone else's fault.
6
Two points, one not mentioned here.
1-What about census hiring, at this point in 2009, one half million census jobs were added in May. If today's figure includes Census hiring, the anemic jobs number is far worse than that.
2-Ironically, the FED may save at least temporarily the ego maniac demagogue Trump by lowering the prime rate. The Fed puts country first unlike the republicans in Congress who will support this greatest threat to American Democracy since the Civil War, Trump, first before country.
6
The Donald clumsily "decelerates" the economy and now the Fed is going to play Fred Trump and bail him out. Is there one person left in Washington who can say no to this man?
9
Read the whole report yourselves.
https://www.bls.gov/news.re...
It contains the new data for May, and revised data for March and April.
The new jobs: + 75,000.
The revisions: - 75,000.
The total number of jobs in existence in the US, as of June 7, 2019:
Exactly the same as the total number of jobs as reported in May, 2019.
There are NO additional jobs month over month.
8
So, uh, how do you explain the fact that the market is going up?
1
@Richard Because traders see lower interest rates from the Fed. What's good for Wall Street is not always what is good for Main Street.
5
@Richard
The market goes up when companies "do well." Companies "do well" when their managers and stock-holders are making more money. However, those gains often occur at the expense of the actual workers, i.e. lower wages, cutting back hours, not getting health/retirement benefits, etc.
The market is just one economic indicator, among many. Consider the fact that the average American worker makes less take-home pay (in consistent dollars) than 20-30 years ago. And there's a bigger gap between rich and poor now.
Someone's getting richer; yes, it's the upper-class stock-holders. But workers are getting poorer.
1
@Richard
Historically, Wall St. is disconnected from the economy. The only time when it connected was in 1929. Investors can make money while the country's economy sinks, when the middle class fails, and when the working poor hold down more than one job to survive. At some point there might be a few failed Hedge funds, a few losers on the margins, a few who lose their jobs. However, they will have money and real assets socked away.
1
The people openly rooting for a recession because they think that will rid the country of Trump make me sick. Besides, where’s all the money going to come from for all their crazy socialist schemes if we’re in a recession? Be careful what you wish for.
3
@Larry
I am rooting for winning the lottery. If that works, as you say it does, I'll be rich soon...
1
@Larry
Yes, I'm guilty of wanting a recession, to rid us of Trump.
It's better for our country to withstand a little economic pain than to endure Trump destroying our moral values, our system of government, and our international alliances (and stoke divissiveness/hatred in our country).
I know exactly what I'm wishing for (and am proud of it!).
1
@Larry
We are in a continuing Recession, unless you believe shuttered factories, low wage big box stores, gig economy on the fringes, unaffordable health care premiums, unaffordable rents where good jobs are, and a huge give-away to soybean farmers with tariffs will save the day. Exploitation of migrants who are not even literate in their own language will not rebuild the economy. Financial exploitation by rich Chinese and Saudis will not grow the economy; they are just parking income in real estate. The current economy will not sustain the life style our parents and grandparents left us. The Forever War is a drain; empty military bases are a drain on the economy; the Senate is a drain on the economy.
1
Now that we see a non-blowout jobs report, commenters seem to agree that Trump now owns the economy. We've seen this before. When it turns out that this is a blip and the economy is still on fire, we're back into an Obama economy. I think we can at least agree on one thing: when we eventually hit a recession (as we always do) it will be Trump's fault...
Obviously I don't love this report, but it's really hard to keep job growth consistently going at such a high clip when we've been at so-called full employment for years now. Eventually you run out of people to hire that actually want jobs. Note as well that short shrift was given here to the continuing over 3% wage growth. It may not seem like much but every fraction of a percent matters as we seek to keep our workers ahead of cost increases which have generally remained below 2% (of course, I'm sure someone will want to point out that their rent or gas prices went up far more than 2% as if that's somehow a useful anecdote in understanding an economy of 330 million people who are paying for all kinds of things other than rent and gas)...
I also note that labor force participation is generally stable to up during the last two years. It was falling off a cliff during substantially all of Obama's two terms (although it did seem to be stabilizing a bit in 2016). That's a super important data point because when people drop out of the workforce it often means they've given up being a productive participant in the economy.
31
@Bob Job creation in the 28 months since trump’s inauguration is 25,000/month lower than in the 28 months before his inauguration.
And the lower participation rate is more about the aging population than the economy.
Everyone over 16 is considered when calculating the participation rate and we are adding 1,000,000/year at age 65 and up.
22
@Bob You actually hit on an interesting phenomenon that happened when Trump was elected. White people who voted for him suddenly got hopeful again and rejoined the workforce they had refused to re-enter under Obama. Its almost like all it took was having a White guy in office to give them the confidence and hope they needed to now accept that same minimum wage job that was available in the Obama economy, but they refused to take as substandard. There is one difference now though ... there are a lot more of those minimum wage jobs under Trump so at least they can make ends meet by working two or three of them.
26
@Paul’52--job creation tends to slow as employment increases. We are close to employment.
The good economy is just like everything else Trump inherited, it's faltering, losing steam and value, mired in controversies and litigation.
When a leader gives passive attention to the weightiest matters and burks only compliments and good news from insiders, does anyone really expect this Obama boom to continue? We're in for a very bumpy ride.
6
So now most everyone has three "gig economy" jobs and still needs to survive by also piling up credit card debt. Medical care means a Go Fund Me appeal.
Even Google which makes billions in profits every quarter prefers to hire temporary contractors, not "regular" employees.
What's next in our end-stage capitalism laboratory?
12
@The Poet McTeagle Little reality check. Most people have full time jobs and decent health insurance. Some, and a growing number are working on 1099.
3
The trade war uncertainties will make most employers reluctant to invest or create new jobs in the US.
5
Trump is orchestrating everything to force the FED to cut interest rates and restart quantitative easing, even though the unemployment rate is near 50 year lows and by every measure the economy is quite strong. He re-iterated his claim in the latest interview that the stock market would be significantly higher if the FED cut rates.
FED funds futures show a high likelihood of rate cuts starting in July, and the possibility of 3 rate cuts by the end of 2019.
Enacting emergency measures such as rate cuts and QE at this point is monetary insanity but clearly reflects how beholden the FED is to Trump's 2020 re-election.
9
@James
I've been thinking the same thing. Why would the "president" call for actions so blatantly dangerous, that could lead to a depression during the next economic downturn?
It has me wondering, maybe the "president" really is compromised by a foreign government whose goal is to destroy the U.S. economy.
9
Isn't this inevitable, if the downward trend for unemployment continues? At some point, created jobs would have to get close to zero. If not, that would mean more and more job openings would be getting created without people to fill them, making it imperative to INCREASE immigration.
2
So much for the rocket fuelled economy. I guess the national debt isn't paid off yet.
@Bob Well, everyone knows that the national debt is only a crisis when there's a Democratic president.
9
Trump's economic climate and policies are SUPERIOR to Obama's.
Obama NEVER had 3 percent growth year over year. Trump has already had that.
Wages were stagnant under Obama's global policies of shedding American manufacturing jobs.
Wages are up 3.1 percent under Trump.
PLUS the tax cuts have actually helped the working/middle class.
Looks like a small blip this month but I expect Trump to maintain a better hold of the economy then Obama. Obama had the worst recovery out of a president EVER and the only president in history to NEVER have 3 percent GDP year over year. And the Democrats have Joe Biden in front?
6
@Ari
Obama came into office during the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of 80 years ago. He went from losing 800,000 jobs a month at the end of the last Republican president to gaining 200,000 a month. He handed a growing economy to Trump and Trump is doing his best to mess it up. Just wait.
68
@Ari...An Arizona man - what are you smoking - it's not good for you. Go back to 2009. Look at unemployment, wage stagnation and reduction, the Dow and the stock market, home losses and failures and the financial state of the country. Fortunately we had Obama and some sane advisers who arrived on the scene. Todays results are a continuation of the correction they made. Your man has taken the credit for it all - with the most ever debt now in place - and is steadily going backwards again. Remember the economy is ALWAYS better for ALL THE PEOPLE under Dems. Do some more research on that too.
6
@Ari
Trump has not had a year of GDP growth over 3%. He has had one quarter at 3% and one over 3% but Obama had four quarters with >3% GDP growth.
3
For the most part the trend lines in this article don't show a significant shift with the change in administrations...that's good news, and it tends to show that our government has had a minimal impact on the economy over the recent past. Many folks will vote in the next election based on how they 'feel' they are doing, which fortunately or unfortunately (depending on your political affiliations!) goes both ways.
3
The numbers could have been higher if those jobs washing coal to make it clean to burn (Trump's words, not mine) had come to fruition.
3
@Dan I missed that quote about washing coal. Thanks for posting. Reassuring as ever.
3
When you combine this data with the yield curve inversion we are seeing, a period of economic retraction is looking increasingly possible, if not probable.
Frankly with the current occupant of the White House, whose ceaseless and largely baseless gloating on economic metric seems to prop up all his other dubious activity, and not least his re-election prospects, a small amount of hard earned schadenfreude is difficult to resist.
7
I'm sorry, but "job creation" is a sham and an entirely misleading method of measuring the health of our economy.
Who cares how many jobs are created if most of these jobs are low-wage, no benefit, an non-union jobs with little to no security? You're telling me it's a good thing when temp agencies and gig-providers are hiring en masse?
Who cares about year-to-year wage growth when real wages (the value of your wage after inflation) for the overwhelming majority of the population have been stagnant or declined the last 40 years?
And the most infuriating part of all this is that the elements of our society who need government assistance the least (multinational corporations, financial institutions, and obscenely wealthy individuals) are getting it the most. They get tax breaks, subsidies, bailouts, inflated credit ratings, and all the perks... while you and I struggle!
The question becomes: do we elect "moderate" leaders who want to stabilize and perpetuate this "system," or do we elect leaders who want to fundamentally change it?
22
Posturing aside, absolutely nobody wants a trade war. Add to that the sheer power of this economy and the level of the stakes Trump has going into the 2020 elections and every pullback in the market sure looks like a buying opportunity. No one wants to 'look' like they are caving in but Mexico is already sending troops to its southern border to help stem the tide as a result of Trumps strategic threat. When Trump said the US holds the cards, he is correct. If we cannot leverage what is perhaps the best economy in history to prevent unfair and illegal trade practices than we never will.
@NYer "No one wants to 'look' like they are caving in but Mexico is already sending troops to its southern border to help stem the tide as a result of Trumps strategic threat."
That's incorrect. Mexico has only proposed to send troops to it's southern border as part of ongoing trade talks with the administration. Whether it does remains to be seen.
1
Donald Trump,Sr's first and last best business decision was his selection of a New York City real estate baron father to inherit 295 streams of income to insulate and protect him from being the worst losing businessman in America over a ten year period.
With the exception of the loss of Michael Cohen and Hope Hicks there has been no decrease in employment within the Trump Organization aka organized crime family.
Except for all of the Trump Organization and campaign collusion with Russians there was no collusion.
Except for all of the obstruction of justice and witness tampering by the Trump Administration with respect to the Mueller investigation into Russian colllusion there was no obstruction of justice nor witness tampering.
8
This is all on President Trump and his Republican enablers. Once more they are sinking our economy with their misguided tax, spending and trade policies.
Trump has portrayed himself as a successful businessman who has amassed a net worth of as much as $10 billion (according to him) . But he has also led some of his companies into bankruptcy, maneuvers he says were designed to restructure their massive debt.
Trump likes to boast he has never filed bankruptcy and, truthfully, he has not ever filed bankruptcy personally. However, he has owned and managed at least 6 different companies so poorly that they filed for bankruptcy.
Unfortunately, there is no bankruptcy option for our nation to give us a "fresh start" and Trump is pushing the economy into a recession. He and the Republicans are destroying the economy that President Obama restored and rebuilt as the Obama administration took us out of the Great Recession and financial crisis that occurred under the administration of George W. Bush.
I suppose Trump today and this weekend will be playing rounds and rounds of golf at his golf resort in Ireland. I'm sure he'll be thinking of our sinking economy on his tee shots and putts.
13
We have low numbers in February and now. If these low numbers start repeating too frequently, then they are indications of troubles ahead. My advice, spend money if you need it and don’t spend it because you have it.
4
"Nor are clients jittery about the recent volatility on Wall Street. “It mirrors the political landscape,” he added. “Just the way Trump creates chaos, people don’t see the chaotic market as an indicator.”"
I find the fact that they aren't concerned about the volatility and the downward slope of bond yields pretty alarming.
Markets do not rise forever. Forces at play will always rear their ugly head to threaten booming markets. Sooner or later, we'll likely see this sunny optimism fade, as the economy increasingly over heats and prepares for correction, or even recession.
And when it does, just be careful lost of optimism doesn't turn into a rout.
7
local news ran a story about business closing for lack of workers in my rustbelt town. wages still aren't any good but there's work.
3
@Sean
There has always been "work" available in our country, e.g. crop picking, custodial work, dairy work, etc. Most Americans aren't willing to do those "menial" jobs; that's why we need migrant workers to do them.
But then we complain about that.
Remember all those great infrstrature jobs that Trump promised? Nope, never happened; just more lies.
7
This article is full of partisan insults. The take aways are that when the unemployment reaches a low then hiring begins to slow and we turn to watching the salary rates. Standing up to China is a scary endeavor I agree- but that doesn't mean it doesn't need to be accomplished. Actually the article has little value due to the emphasis on Trump. Had Obama even approached this level of assertiveness he would have been crowned King.
5
@Dixon Duval
But if you look at all economic indicators combined, the economy under Trump hasn't grown at any faster rate than under Pres Obama. On top of this, Pres Obama got us out of Bush's Great recession, whereas trump inherited a rebounding economy from Pres Obama.
Those aren't partisan insults; they're facts.
9
If this is the first people are noticing of a slow down, I don't know why. The Dow was at 25,500 a year ago January and here it still is. In February we learned that over 7 million people are 90 days behind in their car payments, a record high. Wages are rising but not fast enough to keep up with the rents.
Now the government will be taxing the middle and lower class with tariffs. Dollar stores are moving toward five dollar stores and inexpensive work clothes will now be doubled taxed with a tariff and sales tax. Mr. Trump has failed the economics class again.
152
@Joe Barnett Not only were Trump's assertions that "trade wars are easy to win" fallacious, but the country that instigates a trade war is always by far the biggest loser. The retaliating nations always have a tremendous advantage over those instigating protectionism. This can be easily seen with the tariffs on steel and aluminum that increase the costs of every product made in the US that uses those metals. Thus, American consumers and producers are already net losers from these ill-advised protectionist tariffs, even before any retaliation. These tariffs increase consumer prices and make products produced in the US less competitive, relative to those manufactured goods made outside the country using steel and aluminum priced at the world market, rather than the artificially propped-up, protected US aluminum and steel markets.
As Trump discovered when a retaliatory tariff was put on US motorcycles by the EU, mostly impacting Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG), which will not raise any costs on any EU producers or for anyone in the EU except for buyers of motorcycles, the cost to the retaliating nations is miniscule. HOG has announced it will have to shift production outside of the US as a result of the tariffs. Thus, on top of the harm to US consumers, producers and exporters of the steel and aluminum tariffs, before any retaliation, American workers at HOG lose jobs and shareholders of HOG suffer as well. .."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205253
16
@Joe Barnett
Dollar stores are closing.
3
Not very a very good monthly job news report for this Trump dysfunctional administration.
Unfortunate, it affects us all as Americans. Who is Trump going to blame now since this is his economy now, and with his disastrous tariff policies, a stock market correction leading to a economic recession can’t be to far in the distance. No, not very good news indeed for Trump, as he returns to the country from his dismal trip abroad and his bid for re-election in 2020.
7
Obama had many disappointing job reports where, unlike this report, unemployment rose, but liberals rarely blamed him. I wonder why.
1
@Robert Bosch, I for one, will never forget the 2008 recession, which led to unemployment, loss of home and 2 years of intense worry and depression. During the last x years, the world has recovered. If Trump and his assinine 'economic' policy, puts us back into recession, I will blame Republicans, again.
1
@ Robert Bosch
For what seems like the millionth time, President Obama saves the American economy from the Bush 43 self inflicted devastating recession with no help from the obstructionist Republican Congress led by Mitch McConnell. Here are the facts!
Job growth: 75 months of gain. Overall President Obama has presided over 75 straight months of job gains, a record. It’s a remarkable period, given that when he took office, the U.S. was losing 800,000 jobs a month. Congress and Obama passed stimulus measures and tax cuts to encourage companies to hire again.
money.cnn/gallery/news/economy/2017/01/06/obama-economy
Given these statistics, Mr. Obama right the US economy. His administration had at least 6.3 years of straight monthly job growth out of his 2 term (8 year) tenure. If anything the recovery would have accelerated if the do-nothing Republican Congress had made the stimulus package higher, but the GOP (led by Mitch McConnell) were overly concerned about deficits then. Truth is they knew the numbers and purposely obstructed to keep the economy stagnant so as to not give Obama a win and hurt his re-election bid. Thus the American people suffered needlessly as a result of Republicans obstruction.
@ robert bosch
Not sure where you got your numbers, but you and your elk are the real fake news. You are not entitled to your own alternative facts! Obama saved the country, watch Trump destroy the great economy he inherited!
1
trump claimed that his tariffs are causing manufacturers to "come home."
The total number of manufacturing jobs created over the last 3 months?
5,000.
Add that to trump's 10,000 lies.
121
@Paul’52 The biggest falsehood promulgated by Trump and many of the (mostly Democrat party) politicians who oppose NAFTA and other trade agreements is that America has entered into terrible trade deals. This is particularly dangerous, because so many people who are now vehemently opposed to Trump appear to have bought into it. The exact opposite is the truth. The USA may not be number one in everything, but we are definitely number one in negotiators and lawyers.
If two foreign countries, say Brazil and Argentina were in a trade related dispute, both sides will usually hire American negotiators and lawyers. One tactic the USA has used to get the upper hand in trade negotiations was to use American women to do the face-to-face negotiation. Many foreign cultures were unused to dealing with women at that level. This gave the USA an additional advantage when negotiating the trade deals, that made America the worlds' largest and strongest economy.
It is distressing that many leftist protectionists like senators Bernie Sanders and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) were so quickly able to go from complaining that trade deals like NAFTA and the TPP were examples of corporate America exploiting the workers of the world, to agreeing with Trump's false assertion that the trade deals were one sided against American business interests..."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205253
Wow! You must expect instant results. I guess you also believed Obama’s plan for instant “shovel ready” public works jobs. Obama’s advisors had no idea of all of the permits, publication of proposed work, public hearings, NIMBY issues, minority hiring requirements, advertising for bids, inspections of contractors’ documents, verification of insurance, pre construction meetings, and so much more that Obama expected to be done in 90 days. So why do you expect employers to immediately have new jobs available in the USA?
2
@Robert Bosch
I'm guessing you believe that 2 years just isn't enough time to put anything into the pipeline. However, its certainly enough time to mislead people into believing that whatever Mr. Obama did that was positive, you take credit for.
6
Here's a slightly different take on Trump's trade wars. In his businesses (his only concern), low interest rates are paramount. He couldn't jawbone Powell into immediate rate cuts, so he's tanking the economy towards temporary recession to get them, and Wall Street is also cheerleading for rate cuts. Then, poof, once he gets them, like magic off come his tariffs. Everything the man does is self interest.
25
@dave you give Trump too much credit.
Huh, that’s not quite enough jobs for the 100,000 plus that showed up from the lower America’s last month, not to mention there’s not even a bone being thrown to our own long term unemployed, but no worries we’re a free market, open border limousine liberal society, I’m sure everything will continue being great, for the 1%.
4
This is a big disappointment for everyone. It seems that tariffs war with China does have consequence. Either employers took a wait-and-see attitude not hiring more or small business anticipated hard times ahead that they are reducing employee numbers. Recent news of Ford cutting more jobs in the future will not help the employment picture. Trump staff needs to remind the president that it is not a "fake news" and is hurting the "real" economy.
12
Hey kids it’s too bad that the economy is weakening and we might be headed for another recession.
However, the silver lining is that a weak economy means Trumpo will most likely lose reelection. A strong economy in the run up to the election will most likely mean the opposite.
I rather have us be poorer as a nation economically
and still have a nation governed in a way the Founders would recognize as opposed to the Imperial Presidency becoming ever more powerful going into the 20s.
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@winthropo muchacho
Just in time time to start a war to distract to attention from this disaster presidency.
5
@winthropo muchacho there’s plenty of other Trumps where this one came from...
1
Tax cuts for the rich/corporations, made up tariff wars hurting the consumer, country’s priorities not being met while the President continues to bash others and play golf. Now we have these new job figures which were less than ½ of what was expected, makes me wonder how accurate the previous job numbers were.
The country is slowly imploding but don’t fret….Trump will be in denial and try to ease the pain by putting his own spin on this.
3
@A.A.F.
It is not just a coincidence that tax cuts for the rich have preceded both the 1929 and 2007 depressions. The Revenue acts of 1926 and 1928 worked exactly as the Republican Congresses that pushed them through promised. The dramatic reductions in taxes on the upper income brackets and estates of the wealthy did indeed result in increases in savings and investment. However, overinvestment (by 1929 there were over 600 automobile manufacturing companies in the USA) caused the depression that made the rich, and most everyone else, ultimately much poorer.
Since 1969 there has been a tremendous shift in the tax burdens away from the rich on onto the middle class. Corporate income tax receipts, whose incidence falls entirely on the owners of corporations, were 4% of GDP then and are now less than 1%. During that same period, payroll tax rates as percent of GDP have increased dramatically. The overinvestment problem caused by the reduction in taxes on the wealthy is exacerbated by the increased tax burden on the middle class. While overinvestment creates more factories, housing and shopping centers; higher payroll taxes reduces the purchasing power of middle-class consumers. ..."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1543642
@A.A.F.
The March and April numbers were revised downward. Funnily we hear very little to no mention of that.
There is a good news for President Obama. After almost one years and a half, President Trump owns the economy. Therefore he will not be able to blame President Obama anymore. So whom will get the rap? The Mexicans? The Chinese? The Democrats? John McCain?... Your guest!
PS He will not be able to use his old trick as a failed business, go to... court!
8
@Wilbray Thiffault. No he'll just keep blaming Obama and maybe even Hillary Clinton too. He doesn't need a logical goat. He'll fall back on his old favorites.
3
Those small companies... generally they are located in the area of more populous cities, not in small-town USA. I'm sure there are exceptions, but they are not career, 30-year job producers, just the usual, Republican "any job is a good job" headline stuffer where a worker is taken out of the unemployed category until they can be outsourced at some future point.I've always thought that these "3.6%" or whatever unemployment statisitics are so deceptive because they are just stop-action photographs; they don't tell the storyof how long jobs last, how long the pay and benefits flow, nothing as to how the long-term job prospect flows from being employed. It akes no genius to create a job that lasts for a temporary time, but over the long-term, 30- years (the type of job that allows a person to buy a car, a house, and put a kid through college), those REAL jobs are few and far between and small business provides few of those.
26
@The Nattering Nabob, One out of three jobs are in retail today. And I am only going to guess another third are in the service industry, hotels, fast food restaurants, etc. None of these positions are for long term nor tenable for properly providing basics.
8
@The Nattering Nabob. There doesn't seem to be any tracking of how many of these jobs are being filled by people who lose one and then pick up another. It's a gig economy with no security for people in the workforce, and all we look at are the statistics. Then we wonder why young people feel so hopeless and depressed when Trump says it's the greatest economy that ever existed.
1
Soon the Trump tariff war will send our economy into a recession. As much as many of us hate economic downturns, if it can help Trump and his GOP lackeys lose badly, maybe it’s worth it..
9
To put job creation in context over time, about 5.4 million jobs have been created since January, 2017 (a 3.7 percent total increase) compared to 6.1 million (a 4.4 percent increase) in the same length of time (28 months) before -- data are at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS .
2
@ratitekeeper
Yup, if you look at the graph on the link you provide, the slop of the line of increase has been pretty much constant since 2012, i.e. when Pres Obama lifted us out of Bush's Great Recession.
In ther words, trump's performance is not better than pres Obama's
But of course, the average unthinking American doesn't care about facts like that.
3
Not to be too skeptical of expert opinion, but isn't it every other month we are told the economy is on the verge of endemic slowdown, only for the next month or the month after to have stellar growth and/or have the weak months numbers revised upwards?
John Kenneth Galbraith once said that economics only existed to make astrology look respectable, and these kind of star charts every month look more like horoscopes than science.
I have no doubt the economy is less robust today than it was say this time last year, but its this kind of business-class hand wringing about the future that does more damage to our economic confidence than one month of bad jobs reports.
3
After 29 months of pesidential buffoonery
Destructive policy and vast looney-tunery
Donald Trump with ‘entitled’ autonomy
May now step forth and claim the economy
5
Unemployment cut almost in half from the Obama years, thats my takeaway from this. A rising tide floats all boats.
Lowest minority unemployment in history. Whats not to like.
DJT haters will always look for the negative in the stats because it reinforces their myopic view that this cant really be happening under this President.
1
@Alternate Reality Not even remotely true. "The Obama years" started with an unemployment rate of 10%, handed to him by the previous administration. Obama handed a 4.5% unemployment rate off to Trump, it's now at 3.6 %. The trend line barely budged, and now of course, given the "president's" dumb obsession with tariffs, cited in the article as bad economic policy, all bets are off:(
4
@Alternate Reality
There are many other aspects to consider besides unemployment rates when guaging the economy. It's not a "rising tide" if more people are being forced to settle for low-paying, temporary, or part-time jobs.
You Obama-haters never gave him credit for pulling us out of Bush's Great Recession. Rather, almost all of the economic indicators under Trump have followed almost the same exact trajectory that he inherited from Pres Obama.
But you're so partisanly blind that you can't even see that you're just as guilty of cherry-picking facts.
3
It always amazes me how Republicans come into office and do EVERYTHING they can to kill the economy, then are shocked when it happens! And it's happened every time the WH has changed hands since 1980
Ronald Reagan came to power in a slow, but recovering economy and nearly killed it. Only Paul Volcker at the Fed saved it. So Reagan appointed Greenspan and working with GHWB, the economy tanked again. Meanwhile, the deficit exploded.
Clinton came in and set off 8 years of growth and turned the deficit into a surplus. GWB came to power in 2001 and PROMPTLY took actions that over the years doubled unemployment and destroyed the surplus and created a massive deficit. And "hid" the trillions spent on two wars outside the budget.
Obama came in to an economy hemorrhaging jobs like a dam collapsing, and, despite GOP obstructionism managed to reverse the crash engineered by Bush and get the economy healthy again.
Now Trump is repeating the mistakes of Reagan and the Bushes tenfold, sustained by the "sugar high" of a criminally irresponsible tax cut that is wearing off.
I couldn't believe that economists predicted 175,000 jobs for May given Trump's foolish tariffs that he just keeps escalating. The reality is what I expected: A collapse in job growth.
Sadly, it will take a major recession to get rid of these unhealthy policies--like you need a fever to burn out an infection or chemotherapy to (hopefully) kill the cancer before it kills the patient. Trump is the real disease.
316
Well duh! You cannot start a trade war that hurts the world's two largest economies, ours and China's, then aggravate that by further destabilizing trade with our Canadian and Mexican neighbors, without spurring a recession. Republicans better take heed: given any more time in office this orange wrecking ball is perfectly capable of causing another Great Depression.
12
Gee, I'm so glad that over the last year, earnings have gone up "a solid 3.1%."
They just passed a law here in Oregon limiting rent increases to 7% a year, which many developers believe is far TOO limiting.
If you want to know what's going to crash the economy this time, it's exactly that disparity. Rent already constitutes 60% to 80% of people's budgets in many places (far above the 33% normally considered reasonable). As the gap between income and housing costs grows, spending is simply not going to be able to continue. Disposable income is quickly becoming a thing of the past as landlords and developers treat housing as not the human right it is, but simply a profit source to be maximized.
94
@Kristin
I dryly but truthfully claim that I won't be hurt by the tariffs. Because housing is pretty much the only expenses I worry about and that is dictated by local and regional forces.
@Kristin
If they have at all. I don't believe a word coming from this administration. The March and April numbers were revised downward. The cynic in me believes the inflated numbers are intentional. Like how next to no-one reads a retraction to a misinformation newspaper story, next to no-one will hear of these revised numbers. Minimum wage is also increasing dramatically in many states. An one dollar increase on a ten dollar an hour wage is an increase of 10%. How does this skew the overall percentage increase when aggregated?
My husband works for a utility with a very powerful union. He has seen a contracted 2.5% wage increase. The contract dates from 2015 or 2016. None of our friends are crowing about their great raise they got with the trump economy. The only ones I know who have seen a pay increase are those who found a different job. I'd love to see the real math for this since, again, everything this administration states is suspect. I'd have to look outside and check for myself if trump told me the sun was shining. he lies like the rest of us breathe.
3
How many of these new jobs are at a wage level that supports a middle-class family? As far as I can see (for example, in the San Francisco Bay Area), the backstreets and sidewalks are covered with increasing numbers of homeless.
Workers pushing 50 that get laid off are de facto unemployable, turning only to the below-minimum-wage gig economy once the unemployment runs out. Millennials graduate to few job opportunities unless they had sold their souls to computer programming. Having one parent stay home is out of the question for most families, and child care assistance is negligible. Many people I know work two jobs, or 50 hours per week and have zero savings.
Our economic indicators do not track the deepening fissures in our society. Our quality of life is plummeting.
Even with this bellwether report of a coming recession, what really counts would be efforts to correct this collision course with economic and cultural devastation.
199
@Bohemian Sarah
Excellent points.
Merely looking at unemployment rate is not enough as it doesn't take into account salaries, labor participation rates, employee's savings, etc...
21
@Bohemian Sarah
I agree, except I would use the more accurate term working class instead of middle class. Capitalism is composed of two classes: the capitalist class or the private owners of the means of production and the working class. Working class members only own one commodity that they can sell to earn a wage, buy commodities and live. This is known as labor power defined as the capacity to work.
It does no good and sometimes harm not to accurately reflect capitalist reality in discourse.
19
@Bohemian Sarah Yep! There is a massive under=reporting of how badly the economy is, and that extends through all Presidents from Reagan onward, but Trump is working towards securing the title of Liar In Chief. Sadly, maddeningly, the media aides and abets by using these misleading numbers.
2
We are looking at the wrong numbers , let’s focus on the Labor Participation rate which measures the percentage of Americans employed.
It is stable at 62.8 percent way below the highs of close to 66 percent.
This is because more people are retiring and the ongoing consequence is less people will be supporting more retirees and our deficit will continue to grow , already close to a trillion Dollars.
The fact is that the low unemployment rate is more about demographics than economics.
It is low in spite of Trump not because of him.
There are further consequences , higher deficits means less money to spend on infrastructure , combating climate control, health care which needs more as we have an ageing population, less money to spend on education to compete globally, retirees have less disposable income than when they are working so it means lower growth as disposable income accounts for 65 percent of our GDP.
Welcome to the new Japan.
43
Are you sure the participation rate doesn’t reflect unemployment beyond the 52 weeks of benefits? Many people over 50 have an awful time being re-employed if laid off.
11
@Carsafrica -- just to be clear, our current $22 trillion national debt is not the product of Social Security and retirees draining the budget.
Social Security has been, and still is, the largest CREDITOR of the national debt. Decades of surplus payroll taxes purchased special treasuries that still amount to ~$3 trillion.
The current $22 trillion national debt is the result of too few income tax dollars, not too few payroll tax dollars. Income taxes have been cut too many times and held at unrealistically low levels since Reagan.
6
@medianone
I don’t disagree , it’s the lack of revenue that’s the issue exacerbated by the Trump tax cut for the rich which will not be paid for, Ever.
However Medicare costs are too high and are not paid for.
We can reduce this cost to a degree by Medicare paying the same price as every other country for prescription drugs.
We must not reduce benefits for either Social Security or Medicare but we have to beware of the Republicans cutting these benefits and privatizing these programs.
That’s one reason why the Democrats must win the House, the Senate , The Presidency In 2020.
In doing so we can protect these programs and pay for them by closing the tax loopholes for the rich and corporations and reduce prescription drug prices for a start.
2
Interesting economic policies by Trump. Starting with healthy trends from the prior administration of reasonable gdp growth , wage improvements and lowering unemployment rates, in order to achieve policy goals tariffs are used as tools to accomplish them. Tariffs applied against our northern and southern neighbors, and again recently for Mexico. Talk of tariffs against EU and especially Germany. Then against the next largest economy, China, who is intertwined with their export based economy and our consumer based one. One more item, shutting down the government, again not for reasons of national debt but for immigration policy.
Being lucky while not a policy is a reality. Being handed a good economy and constantly using economic levers to get policies implement just begs for a downturn. Markets do not like uncertainty, you cannot make plans and longer term investments not knowing what may be coming next. While one month’s employment numbers don’t yet signify a trend, lower gdp growth and/or higher inflation might.
Any other administration would have carefully welcomed the economics they were enjoying, but that can’t occur with our Twitter-in-Chief worrying about his 33% of voters, his core supporters, while risking the economy for all of us.
40
Looks like the recession is just around the corner, thanks to the trade war with China and the tariffs US citizens are going to have to pay.
Thanks a lot Trump!
122
Canada added about 27,000 (multiply by about 9 for population based comparison to US)
8
The only conclusion to make from these numbers is that when we finally get our 45th President, we must review every single such alleged fact of this regime led by a known and habitual liar, on top of overturning every single mis-law it has signed.
Our new Sane government will have a LOT of cleanup and catch-up on its plate, even WITHOUT replacing our pro-corporation "growth" economy with a pro-worker fair one.
21
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics: “Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country.” There are 60k households in the sample, of which 25% are rotated
Ludicrous unemployment figure merits a more advanced, better sampling methodology. The unemployment rate is NOT a reliable measure, especially when you take into account the number of people who cannot find full-time employment and the RISING homelessness across the country!
127
@M Ahmed - Agreed. In addition, the statistics need to dig deeper and differentiate between those working and those working a living wage job.
Full time employment that pays so little you have to decide between food and medicine or rent and food (or has you making so little you qualifiy for public assistance) really shouldn't be considered full time employment at all.
49
@M Ahmed
Absolutely! Another absurd measure is the inflation rate. The cost of everything rises, but inflation is purported to be low.
16
The tariff trade war is working its very destructive way into the economy.
The 0.1% Welfare Queen Tax-Cut Sugar High is wearing off.
The national debt is exploding due to Republican malpractice.
Trump is moving manufacturing jobs from China to Vietnam and bomb production jobs to Saudi Arabia.
And Trump's time on the golf course continues to break Presidential records.
The Trump Titanic proudly accelerates into a sea of icebergs.
What a disaster.
465
@Socrates This is your best comment. When do we start moving the deck chairs?
25
@Pecos Bill: There are no deck chairs. The administration didn’t prepare for a disaster before this doomed ship of fools set sail. Somewhere, the Saudis (hat tip, Socrates) and Xi in China can’t stop laughing.
47
@Socrates And Trump supporters are waving at the icebergs, thinking they're vacation isles because Fox News told them so.
89
Good grief, they are posting these ludicrous unemployment numbers again.
Well. let's see.
So besides the people who legitimately can't find work and the people who have given up looking for work and the people who have managed to wangle their way onto to the rolls of the disabled but who are actually able to work, and the people who are working at poverty wages, and the people who work two or three jobs just to survive, and the people in this country who are making their living as criminals who should probably be counted as unemployed, there are also massive numbers of people in this country who "work" at fake jobs that are not really jobs.
Government jobs are frequently characterized this way, but the problem reaches far into the private sector as well. Occasionally one hears of people having fake jobs where they "work" from home without really working or which don't involve showing up for work at all.
But most fake jobs are in a different category entirely and consist of things like making coffee, drinking coffee, going to useless meetings, going to lunch, writing reports and emails that
nobody reads or -- as in the case of many women -- simply showing up for work and being decorative.
As far as I know, few, if any, economists are studying this matter
seriously. If they did, I believe the nation would quickly learn that the true unemployment rate in this country is much higher than 3.6 % and may actually be 25% or greater.
To be completed below.
9
I don't know what the country would actually do with this information if it had it, but generally speaking I believe it is better to know that your house is on fire than not to know.
38
Let's keep this in perspective. It is only one month's data. If you look at the chart in the article, the jobs numbers jump around from month to month (e.g., last month's number may have been too high whereas this month's may be too low). A three month moving average would be a better indicator of where the economy is going.
Yes, the economy may be slowing. After all, the world economy is slowing. And, yes, Trump's tariff policies may hurt the U.S. economy. But, we need to keep a longer term perspective than one month to truly know how to evaluate the U.S. economy.
9
@MVT2216
Average for the last 5 months is well below 200K. Pretty strong trend.
Trump will of course blame the Fed and will start tweeting anew sometime this morning to push Powell along toward a rate cut that he so cravenly wants...(ie. on Trump's latest financial report, he listed some $200 in new borrowings). All the tariffs, all the posturing helps his cause to lower the interest rate on his growing debt burden. Trump always acts solely in his self interest. Just ask those on the other end of the 3,600 lawsuits to which he was a party over a 30-yr. period, or some 120 per year or one every three days.
44
@marty
If it weren't for the fact that we will need a 3-4% interest rate reduction to recover when assets tank, I would love to see a rate reduction now. Trump correctly sees that more inflation gets most of us off the hook but hurts the lenders. Warren sees that too. Neither one of them needs rich backers anymore. Powell represents the lenders who would rather see a recession than have their dollars diluted. Hard times are coming.
2
@Emory
I concur. But more importantly, no one has bothered to ask DJT, if inflation is so low and everything else is so wonderful, why did DJT take a huge loan against Mar-a-Lago?
1
And the Dow futures are up, because this job report makes more certain a Fed interest rate cut in the near future.
The bottom of the job market barrel is in view. Not that many productive, employable people available who do not already have jobs.
15
@RM The people you are talking about have 2-3 jobs to make ends meet.
2