"After all, growth in the first quarter was at a strong 3.1 percent annual rate in the United States. "
Out-of-control government deficit-spending is not real economic growth -- it's a temporary sugar high, Trump is acting true to history. From Bloomberg: "And the economy is, in fact, expanding pretty fast –- but not necessarily for the reasons Trump said it would. The president promised to squeeze more American growth out of businesses and foreigners. Instead it’s the government, deploying its balance sheet via deficit-spending, that’s doing the work." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-21/what-drives-growth-under-trumponomics-looks-like-debt-so-far
Every Republican president since Reagan has left office with a budget deficit higher than the one he inherited. Clinton and Obama, by contrast, left office with smaller deficits. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-22/u-s-posts-largest-monthly-budget-deficit-on-record-in-february
19
My tea leaf projection is that the markets are preparing for a Democrat President (not Trump). This anticipates more regulation, more taxes, more difficulty in doing business, more illegal immigration, more inflation, etc. In essence, taking the wind out of the sails of growth. I could be wrong but probably not.
1
Haven’t the markets fared better under Democratic presidents in the past twenty years ?
102
@Will Eigo Going from Trump to a Democrat President will be the most dramatic shift in policies anyone has seen, ever.
I am not betting my portfolio on the market indicators.
3
@RCS
Bill Clinton cleaned up after Reagan and left a nice surplus for W. who immediately turned the surplus into a huge deficit, then Obama cleaned up after W. and now we need another Democrat to clean up after Trump, an even more herculean job and it could take several generations to straighten the huge economy.
123
My inspection of the entrails suggests that the markets are preparing for a Democratic President. This anticipates more regulation on banks, less ability of the uber rich to avid taxes, more difficulty for the rich to rip off the middle class, a saner approach to immigration, a much saner bond market, a more rational approach to Israel, and less chance that the US will go to war. In essence, taking the wind out of the sails of of the plutocrats. I could be wrong, but probably not.
79
Sigh. The next census will only count shareholders if this continues. If only we could get some people to be happy with three houses instead of five? Or is that too spiritually deep?
16
This isn’t news. The yield curve inverted in December of 18. The economy has roared since. Not saying the yield curve is to ne ignored. Only that the Times is just jumping on the sensational story of the day.
1
I assume that the record heights in the stock market are due to humans playing a smaller and smaller decision making role and AI and algorithms driving the market up.
I can't make that assumption about the bond market, but it seems like it would too be fair game for AI. That might just invalidate the old trends and push us into new territory where the AI's inside the bond market unintentionally colludes to keep making money (like in today's stock market) and keeps things on an even footing or gaining.
We'll know in October if humans have the same effect they used to.
4
This is an opportunity for the president to actually manage the economy - to the extent any president can do that, of course. But he takes full credit for a good economy (all nine years of it), so if it turns down he has to wear that, too. But he knows more about economics than anyone so there's no reason to worry. That's good enough for me.
2
Just a thought. Trump offended so many countries one way or another in trade. Instead of US dollars, these countries are in the process to use other ways for trade, thus reducing the needs for our currencies. Could this bond curve inversion suggesting future rate cuts be a plot to luring foreign investors using green backs to buy bonds?
3
"When interest rates go up, bond prices go down."
What happens if bond prices want to go up, but interest rates are at zero?
Austerity?
2
Japan
5
@Jack Negative yields. It’s not too distant of a memory in Japan and parts of Europe.
3
What does an investment manager of a pension fund or of a college endowment do, assuming for a moment that he or she has more cash coming in than going out?
The overwhelming consensus among financial experts is that the manager should allocate 60% or so of the new money to bonds, or similar instruments, and the rest to stocks.
How is that investment manager to meet his or her goal of producing an overall return of 6.0% to 9.0% when he or she places that 60% or so in instruments that will produce a return of no more than 4%, assuming no defaults?
With bond prices as high as they are, which is the inverse of low interest rates, the manager has to push a much greater percentage of his or her new money to stocks.
I get the feeling that the continued persistence of the 60/40 dogma is a marketing ploy among those financial experts to maintain a marketplace for newly offered bonds.
The confirmation lies in the pitches made to corporations: "Sell bonds while interest rates are so low." Well, if the interest rate paid by the issuer is "so low," that same interest rate cannot be a great deal for the pension plan or the endowment.
Prediction: demand for common stock will shortly increase, given pittances for interest earnings, regardless of the economic outlook. DPD
4
We have a narcissistic, six-times-bankrupted president who claims to be "the king of debt" and who also resents the political independence of the Federal Reserve. What could go wrong?
25
The NYT has been telling us for 2 years that the sky is falling, the economy is about to tank.
Except it has not.
This too is another alarming report, sorry to continue to disappoint.
4
@AutumnLeaf I agree. I don't know much about the market except my entire retirement fund (i.e., my future) is tied to it so I 'try' to stay informed. NYT seems as if it would rather be a market participant, or adviser, than reporting on the market.
2
@Michael Shirk -- This is not commentary. Lots of data and history there. That's what reporting is. And it takes months or years for large economic shifts to play out. Or would you rather the Times said "hey, we're in a recession. We just didn't want you to know about it in advance so you could maybe take a look at your retirement fund before you started to lose money. Too bad sucker."
9
@Stevenz. The Times has no clue when to warn of a recession. They are journalists — not financial advisors. This article is mere speculation compared to analysis from a real financial advisor.
1
The economic steps taken by the Trump administration as everyone expected would produce a short lived shot in the arm for the economy along with the tax bill that created more wealth at the top while increasing the National Debt to ever increasing record highs that I believe are supposed to really look ugly after 2020-21. Along with the tarrifs across the globe businesses large and small are planning how to weather the economic winds. Unlike the Trump administration they plan with facts and for the long run = what you describe here. In 2 words - economic uncetainty.
Now do you still think trickle down voodoo economics work?
13
@Will Goubert -- The operative word is "trickle." Problem is, a lot of people are trying to use that trickle to stay hydrated.
2
Perhaps the bond market is trying to say that the stock market's historical highs (despite all the bouncing around recently, look at the 5-year chart), and the high price of bonds means that the view of bonds as a prudent alternative to stocks is wrong. Perhaps it's really a "flow problem" of excess funds in the financial system.
The financial system is flooded with money from multiple monetary stimuli -- a small part of which percolates down to the real economy. Low "core" inflation does not adequately measure the excessive demand for selective investment assets (cf. stocks, bonds) and housing for these funds.
As a result of the dearth of other profitable real ("bricks and mortar") sources of return, excess money flows to the investments where it is most fungible: stocks and bonds. Speculative stock prices are high, though trading volume is falling, because there is too much money to "fit" in.
So while inflated bond prices register "uncertain expectations" about the state of the speculative stock market, both reflect less and less the state of the real economy, and more and more the actual problem: where wealthy individual and corporations can park their profits and tax cuts.
When enough of them get really scared, they'll bond out of stocks (or cash out of bonds) and there will be a "financial crisis" which will hit the real economy as a recession. Like 2007.
5
@jcb
The stock and bond market prices reflect directly decisions by large investors . If I am a small investor e.g $100,000 to invest :
Here are my choices:
Bank Savings Account 1.5%
Treasuries 3, 5, 10 years; 3.0% with an inverted yield curve
Inflation 2%
Summary: Net Yields nil
At least 50% of American families do not have $100,000 to invest!
The housing industry will crash if mortgage rates will go to 5-6 %.TheFED is"Boxed in"
Remember the 2008 housing crisis primarily caused by mortgage derivatives but the financial fanks and mortgage lenders who flipped mortgages
.Gullible homebuyers were victims
Aside I was a realtor during this era and prospered!
With tax cuts going to wealthy corporations and foreign fiat currency (converted to cheap dollars)purchasing the best properties, the middle class and lower economic classes are forced to less desirable areas e.g. the reader is urged to fact check Google Vancouver Canada home price inflation
Frank Lipsky Prescott AZ
6
The Street seems to be getting nervous. This might be because (to quote long-standing wisdom) "Nobody knows nuthin'." You can take that to the bank, if you think the banks can provide safe harbor when the next tsunami finally trumps this economy. That ought to be some reality show.
1
A Fed rate cut to head off recession with unemployment purportedly at a historic low and wages purportedly rising tells me this: it isn't, really, and they're not, really. And that without buybacks financed by cheap money, the stock market would be much lower and its heady wealth effect much diminished. You want to get a feel for about how much? Look at the shrinkage in the S&P'S total float of shares over the last 10 years.
23
What’s to be done? What’s to be done? Oh yeah, cut taxes for rich people, push the rates into the negative and increase the flow into the public trough for wall street.
7
Hate to say it: cure for recession?
....educate kids. There it is. A solution that is time consuming, delayed gratification, requiring sacrifice of adult pleasure, and needing the Long View. Share Values. Teach money and economics. Make “knowing” desirable. Make education excellent and cheap. PAY teachers. Take our Vote away from foreign power.
As a kid in public HS, I was brainwashed that there is no higher more noble occupation than educating myself to know the world and how things worked. We won’t wake up in America until we have food scarcity. Just watch.
Ten years of Presidential work benefits the next presidential image. What will manifest from this one is going to be tragic.
7
Trump is such a factor that charts and history cannot explain things today. Many of us are sitting all of this out because we are so fearful of what trump might do at any moment. Its like having a bad behaved 6 yo running the family finances. Remember he has 6 bankruptcies, has lost billions ,has caused investors to go broke, lies to lenders, is proud of cheating on taxes.
55
Inflation is coming. So is a recession. I work in the fashion industry, we source out of China and sell to department stores. Before the threat of tariffs we were barely hanging on, every week another retail chain was shuttering their doors. Tariffs? Forget it, it's game over for most of us in the next 12 months. The company I work for has been in business for 40 years. I've been with them for 25. The end is near, all my competitors are in the same boat. I estimate all imported goods will decrease 75%, inflating the costs of the 25% still coming in because of lack of supply. Trump is a terrorist. And this market will go to 15K. Just watch. This is how we fall. China and Russian have their popcorn in hand.
50
@Meg
Clothing is one small part of the basket that makes up inflation, so it's hard to make a prediction of overall inflation with just one tiny part of the market. What been evident over the past few decades is how low inflation has been, even with tons of money floating about. No one has a handle on why, and I'm doubtful that tarrifs, which slow growth, would lead to inflation, which happens when there's too much money.
2
@E Tons of money floating around, but in the hands of the few, not the many. If some portion of that wealth was left in the hands of the middle class, then maybe we would see some inflation.
15
@Meg Actually, this is how Trump falls. I have my popcorn in hand.
8
When waiting on food kitchen lines, the Deplorables will finally understand that they are not winning anything.
9
Winter is coming.
5
Bond yield analysis notwithstanding, I have not seen much rational long-term economic thought in the USA since 1980. I do know I have lived through one recession after another during decades of hard work and, yes, paying my share of taxes to one administration after another. And my taxes, and the tax monies paid by others of the middle to lower middle-class have been squandered. Our economic resources are dwindling in the broadest sense. Our tax structure and its loop holes have gutted our treasury. This nation and most of the population is in debt and if the implications of these data were included in the analysis of experts it would be far more helpful. Finally, any economic expert would be foolish to ignore the global changes occurring in modern times and the impact of climate change and its sibling: environmental destruction. If economists who are published by the NYT cannot encompass a bigger more current set of metrics then it would be better to hear from those who can in the NYT.
12
With such a seemingly strong economy, we should be saving for a rainy day by spending on infrastructure, education, healthcare, and green, renewable energy. Instead, the deficit is increasing, and we’re doing none of the things a country or person should do while they’re flush with cash.
Whether this inverted yield curve is the canary or not, I’m not sure, but the current Trump administration is squandering this opportunity. If a major crisis happens soon, we’ll look back and wonder what the heck were we thinking in 2019?
38
It is true that current US economic data (unemployment rate, GDP growth, corporate profits, etc) have looked quite strong recently, so perhaps the current expansion has several years or more to go. It's possible! But the sheer duration of this cycle -- 118 months and counting -- would at minimum suggest CAUTION is in order given the fact that no US expansion since WW2 has gone beyond 120 months.
Again, there's no law of the universe indicating the current cycle of growth couldn't go on for some time. And indeed it seems unlikely the US will dip into recession this summer. But given the various negative flashpoints affecting the global economy of late (first and foremost the outbreak of the trade war), one can understand why bond investors are behaving the way they are.
4
Interesting in that the graph also shows the U.S. paying, or required to pay, higher interest on debt than other developed countries. Why?
5
A lot of the comments here bring to mind Sir John Templeton’s famous admonition that the four most expensive words in investing are “it’s different this time.” It’s the nature of market and economic cycles that optimism is highest as the cycle is at a peak and about to roll over. It’s human nature. We always expect the current state of affairs to continue longer than it will, whether that be periods of gloom or boom. But, wishing away the predictive value of a yield curve inversion for all the reasons posited in these comments is, more likely than not, wishful thinking. At the least, it’s usually foolhardy to bet that “it’s different this time”, even if that might turn out to be the case.
25
I think the equity markets are weakening and intermediate term bond prices are increasing due to a large increase in the level of uncertainty about future US and global economic performance. The list of reasons for for this increase in uncertainty is quite lengthy, many issues are cited in the article and the various published comments.
While it is hard to quantify uncertainty it has long been extremely clear to me that investors hate it and quickly react to signs that it is increasing or decreasing.
5
I am paying attention, and have sold some of my stretched, iffy bond funds. However, those of you who bought your funds, when the prices were down, can rest assured that they will rebound. Your dividends will be less, but you won't lose anything if you don't sell.
1
How much crazy government dept can we take and when do we pay?
1
@Richard Sharkey--It's debt, and only rich people can afford to own treasuries. Most of us have corporate bonds, and they may have an underlying strength that will protect you from loss, if you own good companies. Your dividends may go down, but those bond prices will rebound. I would refrain from selling.
2
@Richard Sharkey
Quite a lot. Most of the government's public debt is owned by Americans, in any event, so in a very real sense it's simply money we owe ourselves.
1
@ChesBay: Anyone can purchase Treasury notes (2-10 year maturities) and Treasury bonds (30 year) in increments of $100 at TreasuryDirect.gov. Anyone who can open an on-line brokerage account (e. g., at Vanguard or Fidelity) can purchase units in many different bond funds (government or corporate) often for less than $100 each. Many people prefer government bonds to corporate bonds for their greater security. Governments have financial resources that corporations can't match.
1
It appears at this time that the promise the GOP and Trump gave of peace and prosperity is not materializing. His radical us against the world stance on alliances, immigration, and trade is not working. Watch the stock market yo-yo each week. Is that a sign of a 'the most wonderful economy the country has ever had"?
31
The great thing about capitalists is that when they finally discover that a President isn’t actually good for business, they get rid of him.
79
Well duh! I've said it before and I'll say it again. You cannot take a wrecking ball to the world's two biggest economies without harming the global economy. The wrecking ball in this particular scenario is the "stable genius" who started a trade war with China.
121
How does crazy government dept play into this? When do we pay for it?
3
@Richard Sharkey
Modern Monetary Theory asserts that government debt does not have to be repaid.
On the one hand, Americans are being less reckless about their debts. On the other, corporations are not.
On the one hand, everybody has a job. On the other nobody has any money. Really. 70% of Americans don't have any money. They have cars, houses, big tvs, expensive phones, but no money. and they are scared of any unexpected expense. We are headed down with no tools except slow-to-develop infrastructure projects to save us. Not in time to save Trump.
41
way the recession comes rates are to low now to do anything about it we should have raised rates before and now so we can do something when it hits
4
Perhaps this low rate environment would be an opportune moment to borrow money to fix our infrastructure that is in disrepair.
16
@Kevin If the Koch Bros, et al, cannot see a way to profit and don't get behind it, neither does the GOP.
13
@eisweino I actually think its the politicians that are scared of being painted as spendthrifts (and their constituents who might view them as such) that might be preventing prudent borrowing at historically low rates.
I also think improved infrastructure would benefit people and corporations from all sides of the political spectrum.
3
@Kevin
With unemployment this low, construction humming, trades busy and unable to find workers, this isn’t the time to start a massive infrastructure program. It should have been done in the depths of the Great Recession, which Obama tried and Republicans blocked.
We should now wait for the next recession and use it to stimulate the economy when it actually needs stimulating. Costs will be lower when construction companies are hungry for business and interest rates will probably be even lower.
20
There are more things to worry about than just the bond market. People are spending irrationally on trucks and SUVs (I can’t really say “cars” because hardly anyone is buying cars these days) with things like 7-year loans and subprime loans. If subprime mortgage dept was a major factor in the Great Recession, this time it will be subprime auto loans, 7 million of which are in default for 90 days or more.
Another bad sign: energy costs are relatively low. When that goes on for too long, people get over-confident and buy huge vehicles; when the price of gas goes up, they act like a rug has been suddenly snapped out from underneath them and stop buying those large vehicles. The lower the price of energy, the more potential there is for the cost to go up as expressed as a percentage, and the bigger the shock. A steep spike in energy costs has proceeded every major recession in the US in the past 60 years.
27
Low energy costs? A gallon of gas is easily a dollar or more than it was when Obama left office. People are getting bled by big oil and the Saudis. This in turn means less money to save, pay down debt, put into the local evonomy. We already had the energy spike when trump took over and cozied ip with the Saudis and started to threaten Iran.
21
@Christopher Actually average gas prices are lower now that they were in Obama's last years, although they have recently started to come up.
3
It has been said that the US can not sustain a 3.0 Gdp growth for a year. It is also said that the economy grows and more people become employed when demand for good and services increase. Unfortunately we are not making more widgets and productivity increase has been low. It appear that this economy is based on cheap money and tax give away. Artificial inflated stock price due to free money to buy back share only masks long term deflation.
36
@Sean Daly Ferris Yes, cheap money. Quantitative Easing pumped north of $2 trillion into the financial markets. As the Fed was pumping $80 billion each month into the system--buying securities in exchange for deposits--there was much talk of how delicately the process would have to be reversed not to spook the system. I have heard no talk of this delicate reversal process now in many years. The Fed appears to have given up on the whole idea of reversal and simply accepted the fact that the initial "liquidity" is now just lasting excess deposits (cash) in the system. The Fed it turns out, just printed money to get us out of the 2008 banking fiasco.
1
This article provides a refreshingly accessible explanation of how the yield curve works and what an inversion may portend. And investors are right to take notice of the signals that bond yields are sending.
Mark Twain is reported to have said that "history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes." The science of economics can often fail to anticipate what lies ahead because of the uncertainty this implies.
One element of potential uncertainty is the position of the US dollar relative to other currencies. The relative hegemony of the greenback has been all but assured since at least the end of World War II so it's something we rarely question. During that entire period the dollar has been what's called the world's reserve currency. (If you want to understand more about what this means, read up on the Triffin Paradox, named for the Belgian American economist Robert Triffin.)
But our current economic trajectory (from new tariffs to steadily increasing income inequality to a declining industrial base to the crumbling of America's global alliances to our burgeoning deficits) has the potential to threaten the dollar's vaunted status on the world economic stage. Anyone old enough to remember what happened to the British pound (and British economy) during the three decades after the War might hear a discordant rhyme.
83
@Old Bond Man
Was not the solid gold standard $$$ replaced with the oil standard $$$? How does that affect global currencies and economies? Does it not make it easier to manipulate currencies?
1
So... we printed (or electronically made) too much money or cash. In the olden times we would have inflation. Somehow now inflation is walled off by maybe globalism...? Or the rise of corporations and their setting of wages or prices.... No economist has a clue as to an interest rate model that works as a predictor. Those models went out the window; Phillips Curve and all: gone.
But I think we are talking ourselves into a recession.
4
@Chris Patrick Augustine: "Talking ourselves into a recession", like they did in 1929?
3
@gschultens If you only knew (or may) all the parallels between then and now you would be scared. Chin up!
3
All that money sloshing around in the portfolios of the .5% and interest rates are stagnant or falling. Heartbreaking. It's so hard to know where to stash one's next billion these days.
6
@sue harney
All of this affects "lower" value investors too, so that ordinary people with 401K's and IRA's can be negatively affected by these negative outcomes. So set aside your glee that the .5% may lose something and recognize that it also affects many in middle-class America as well.
34
@George S: I'm having a hard time discerning where the irony in Sue's post indicates a lack of recognition of the perils that the middle class face.
3
@sue harney
That would be funny if it weren't for the fact that when the lifeboats are used they only help the top few %. Their wealth and influence are both HUGE, as the bully brat would say.
9
Yield curve inversions corresponded with the recessions of 1990, 2001, and 2008 (roughly every 10 years). The latest inversion indicates trouble in 2020 (about 10 years later also, keeping with the pattern).
Recessions occur in all economies periodically though. They're better thought of as cyclical "adjustments" than doomsday events, and so there's not much need for concern.
The fact that you have a (let's just say "unenlightened") president calling for cuts in interest rates, and starting trade wars in the midst of all of this, however, is reason for concern.
47
@Fred
If the US had a robust, Nordic-style safety net, recessions wouldn't be much of a concern in the US.
Unfortunately that is very much not the case.
10
In this and ensuing years the cost of doing business and providing essential government services will be negatively impacted at an ever increasing rate by the results of global warming and an unsustainable rate of global population growth. Meantime the naysayers will keep fiddling along putting all of us in peril. Recession is but one of many dangers ahead.
18
@John Warnock Too bad your electorate and your influential Senators from KY are the most resistant to this reality.
6
Does this story suggest that the bond market is shifting in anticipation that governments --- especially the U.S. bond market ---- are on the verge of defaulting?
1
Precisely the opposite the article suggests. It posits that US Gov’t Treasury bonds are the safer , if not safest, bet.
6
Here’s a suggestion: We (yes, this means YOU) need to take our gains and pull every $$ out of the market. Your 401k, IRA, everything. Sell and hold as cash. Yes, it will sting - but this has to happen if we have any hope of stopping this circus.
1
@Keith Bee No rational investor or fiduciary would advise this, unless you were extremely risk adverse and about to retire. The stock market has rebounded from all recessions. By "stopping this circus", you really mean incurring tax deferred penalties and missing out on years of growth. Buy and hold for any time period longer than 5 - 10 years.
9
@Ray
There's a good chance that moving all retirement assets now into a money market may yield more over the next year than leaving it in stocks....
3
@Keith Bee
Don't take it out of your retirement funds, just shift it to a money market fund within your retirement savings. Your suggestion is usually very stupid, compared to long term, but we are no longer borrowing from the future, we are stealing from it. Techno-salvation and productivity gains can't stop the droughts, fires, floods, storms, near extinction of bees, you name it.
3
How about the old saw: Economists have predicted nine of the past five recessions. And: Past performance is not indicative of future results. No doubt the graph is a clear trend line for past 18 months. Perhaps the recent spat of trade tariffs along with a bull market quite ‘long in the tooth’ is simply causing a rebalancing , or net greater inflow of investable money, into fixed rate securities rather than equities ? That would cause the change in rates downward. The need to cut interest rates is probably more political for Trump and a second wind boon ( after the tax cut ) for the rentier classes who pinch their noses when they donate and vote for Trump.
3
@Will Eigo The old saw is the stock market has predicted nine of the last three recessions.
3
You are absolutely right, I stand corrected. Paul Samuelson 1966 quipped.
2
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
I don't pretend to be able to understand the moves of the markets. What I do know is that low cost index funds, periodic re-balancing, and working with a fee-based financial planner is a good approach, especially given the (mis)behavior of the current administration.
5
Inverted yield curves are correlated with recessions, but they don't cause them.
We are in a rare period of healthy GDP growth and low inflation. I think a federal funds rate cut will be a good thing, not a sign of impending doom.
2
@Bill That's the rub, if the GDP is healthy and growing, employment is high, inflation low and wages rising then we should be able to absorb rate hikes not need rate cuts. This means there is weakness in all of this that is not bubbling to the top of the headline numbers. Looking at the latest GDP numbers, the growth appears to be concentrated in government spending not in consumer spending. And we know unemployment is a lagging indicator not a leading indicator. We're on a sugar high that is starting to wear off and the Fed will cut rates to keep it afloat but structurally it is not sound and the crash will only be worse.
64
Thanks @Michael I was not aware the growth was driven by government spending alone.
1
@Bill: I'm not sure how you got that interpretation of Micheal's post. "Concentrated" does not mean "alone". However, a debt-financed tax cut (primarily for the wealthy) can provide a short-term boost to the economy. The main problem is the complete lack of tools in the toolbox to deal with the next downturn.
10
inflation not an issue for whom? Been to the grocery store lately? Or are those prices the result of "a successful" trade war?
61
While I leave investing advice to my wife and Vanguard representative, I have been wrong over and over about the stock market falling, even though it seems that it must. Crushing debt is the reason. How long can the system support the unsustainable? That said, I'm happy with the returns.
Having the FED lowering the interest rate would seem to encourage more debt. But then, I have to talk to my wife...
7
I would gladly suffer another recession - a sentiment is shared by many - because it would mean the end of Donald Trump.
125
@J Milovich
Not so sure J. There have been SO many times when I thought “This! This MUST be the tipping point!” Ain’t holding my breath. 😞
10
@P. If there is a recession, he will blame Obama.
28
@Emsig
No, he will blame the Fed for raising rates and then for not lowering them soon enough.
7
Anybody can predict there will be "trouble ahead," or "success ahead." Isn't that what economies do?
The real question is who can predict WHEN.
16
@Frea You hit the nail on the head. In most cases. econometric models cannot predict when an event will happen. Recessions and recoveries, are caused by human behavior. For example, if consumers are sated with appliances, autos, etc. and slow their spending, businesses will reduce investing. Voila, a recess looms. Numbers alone will not tell you when this will happen.
3
@Frea The economist's prime directive: give them a number or give them a date, but never give them a number and a date.
7