Donald Trump could get a 2nd term riding on the Yellow Peril wave as indicated by the comments from self-professed liberals cheering the end of Chimerica.
New Zealand's leader Arden pushed the 'Christchurch call' after a self-described white supremacist gunned down 51 people in a massacre at two mosques. In an opinion piece in The New York Times over the weekend, Ardern said the Christchurch massacre underlined “a horrifying new trend” in extremist atrocities.
White supremacist and xenophobia is a real thing and on the rise. Coincidentally, today many world leaders and leading tech chiefs are meeting in Paris to launch a new initiative aimed at curbing extremism online. The horse has left the barn. Read the comments here.
4
Of course it's a symbiotic relationship. When China created a foreign zone back in the 1980s under leader Deng Xiaoping greedy western oligarchs were enthusiastic to move their factories to southern China for the cheap labor. That meant tremendous profits and kept Wall Street happy. At the same time it meant pulling a lot of Chinese out of poverty with low but reliable wages. Even the biggest hypocrite Donald Trump and his own daughter, Ivanka Trump, both benefit from cheap labor in China. Notice that with all the items being targeted with tariffs the current exception is no tariffs on clothes and shoes. The president's daughter, Ivanka, got a clothing line and shoes line currently being made in China without any tariffs placed on her imported products.
5
100 percent, or kick out of WTO. I was a member of an European bank in its Chinese JV. The CCP has well overstayed it's WTO benefits while not delivering its promise.
7
I'm all in with the China hawks. This should have been done 20 years ago, and not just for economic reasons.
12
FERGUSON & SCHULARICK: “For a time, it seemed like a marriage [between the U.S. & China was] made in heaven.
Yet, like many another marriage between a saver and a spender, Chimerica was not destined to last.
We believe the financial and economic crisis of 2007-9 has put the marriage on the rocks.
The reduction of the imbalance between the United States and China—in short, the dissolution of Chimerica—is now indispensable if equilibrium is to be restored to the world economy.”
Ferguson & Schularick are the authors of the paper “The End of Chimerica,” Harvard Business School.
10
The Chinese entrepeur said: “China and the U.S. don’t have to have strained relations,”
I believe if you surveyed the Chinese public and the American consumer, you would find little support for unemployment of the former and the increase in prices for the latter.
The people hurt by this needless trade war are the average citizens in both countries. It is a power struggle of political egos.
Xi is strategic and focused on the long term growth and geo-political dominance of China. He will be patient and tough.
Trump is experimenting and thinks he's tough. What he doesn't realize is that his people will squeal with their suffering.
Xi will simply squelch any opposition from the people he unemploys. Trump will face the suffering electorate that will care little for a "booming stock market" that ignores their higher cost of goods.
And soon the farce of a "fully employed" America will come to light. Where are the stats that show what happens to the GM employees from Lordstown, Ohio - the kind of jobs they will get next?
Who do you think really will win the long game here?
9
I don't know why there are so many who think being flooded by cheap, poorly made and often bootleg products from China is a good thing, or why Chinese undercutting (due to cheap goods) is a good thing for Americans or why we are supposed to just sit still while China steals American business ideas, but we have been getting the short end of the stick. The NYT opposes anything that Trump does, just because. But as a seller I can tell you my once excellent part time selling for years gradually ended around 2008 with all the cheap Chinese goods flooding the market, bogus, bootleg and all.
13
People in China (or wherever else) are just as smart as those in the US. So as long as they have a competent government - and China's government is competent in handling its economy - they are bound to have an export surplus with the US and other rich countries and slowly catch up.
Trump is fighting the leveling of chances that is bound to happen in a just world. It is just cheap populism.
2
It seems NYT readers are as ignorant of data and global trade flows as the average American. This is all coming 30 years too late. What China sells the US it sells to the global middle class and up. While we're still the top destination for their products the growth rates are all coming from other countries. The TPP from that guy Obama which Trump immediately ditched was our last chance to work together with enough powerful allies to get China to behave. Given Trump's diplomatic skills right now countries are more likely to trust China than the US which is simply CRAZY. To reroute all our product sourcing to other countries or rebuild all those factories here would be extremely costly and take a decade while all Walmart and Target shoppers suffer high prices. Fine for many NYT readers maybe but everyone making under the median would suffer. All that investment would be better spent on changing our energy mix and preparing for global warming. The way to get China to behave looks exactly like the TPP. It cannot be done unilaterally because even to China 500 billion in trade is not big enough. They need to see 2 trillion in trade threatened. That means the EU and Japan, Korea, India, Brazil and Australia have to be involved with demands matching the USs. The US stole IP and didn't respect patents through the 1800s from the world power at the time. Once we had enough valuable IP of our own we saw the value of IP protection treaties. China and India will be the same way.
17
@Eb -- BTW Trump took advantage of cheap labor in China to produce his clothing line and to but Chinese steel. Didn't his daughter receive " patents" last year to have more of her products made in China?
8
And while you’re all sitting here arguing about this, China is creating its own trade agreements with other nations and opening up new markets.
Don’t believe me?
Go look at the time and money China has invested in Africa over the past ten years.
They don’t need you.
Enjoy your isolationism.
5
Let's face it, America blew it when this administration stupidly pulled out of TPP. We'd be well on our way reducing the current Chimerica distortions by now with TPP, and not in the hopeless hardnosed/cant back down positions we now find ourselves in because we have a egotistical, narcissistic amateur in the white house.
But this is what America voted into office. You reap what you sow. C'est la vie.
14
Is it so difficult for us to remain coherent and avoid the instrumental use of the international trade economics theories, which are manipulated to argue one thing and its contrary, following the social and political stream of the time?
For forty five years, the American prophets of the absolute free trade have bombarded us about the need to develop China and therefore increase the profits of the USA companies operating there, as logic consequence.
Now, a lot of pundits discover the Chinese economic and strategic threat. Are they joking? Are they fooling us again? Couldn't see this threat easily years ago?
A cynical prediction: the trade dispute is settled in the Spring of 2020...just in time for elections
4
Good...riddens. China has cheated us and is not our friend and I just hope other countries follow our lead in calling China out.
China and its inhumane government has been enriched at the expense of America's production economy and has become a serious military and cyber threat to boot.
I applaud Trump for bucking them as none of his predecessors would. If only he'd be consistent and be as tough with other countries that are draining and imperiling us and treat people inhumanely.
8
Inasmuch as “the two sides are...at loggerheads over how to interpret ... W.T.O. rules” (”U.S-China Trade Talks Stumble,” NYT, 5/130), the resolution of that requires a shared sense of collaborative global market that brings the isolationist Trumpists and the command-economy Confucians together in a common ground.
But Trump has destroyed the leverage of the WTO—i.e., the potential to make the WTO a force for problem solving (e.g., through collaborative sanctions against persistent rule violation)—because Trump has alienated U.S. policy from the transnational alliances that allow WTO efficacy. And Republicans in Congress let it happen.
No wonder, then, that U.S. critics rightly worry that the trade war will favor China’s interest in non-U.S. markets, in preference to tolerating Trumpism; and deny U.S. business non-China opportunities, because the Chinese are acting smarter.
THIS is the consequence of isolationism! China will turn Trumpism into global opportunity!
That is the danger to national security that a real estate salesman, pretending to be an emperor, inflames.
Spineless Republicans are happy for short-term power at the expense of America’s future in global markets.
6
It is with great naivete that many commentators imagine that they would want the factory jobs held by Chinese workers. Really, how many Americans want to sew sneakers or dresses or work in a toxic Foxconn factory that makes all those cool hipster Apple products? Here is a story on the working conditions at Foxconn: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/11/business/dealbook/foxconn-worker-conditions.html If these jobs were to come to the US, they would most likely be filled by the undocumented. Previously poor, China was willing to have its workers suffer all the ills that an American worker wouldn't have nightmares about.
12
Only people absolutely blinded by hatred for Trump would oppose his tariffs on China. China is led by dictators who orchestrate a continuing theft of our intellectual property and military secrets. Trump should be more clear in explaining the stakes here. But, we all should support this effort.
None of his predecessors even tried.
11
How does this benefit Putin should be what we're asking.
4
The economic tensions between China and the U.S. point directly to (nuclear) war. The nation-state system has to be abandoned if humanity is to thrive, or even just survive. World government forever!!!
How can a regime that does not respect its own citizens would respect "foreign devils". China is a country that does not have the basic concept of intellectual property. The copying of each other is evident everywhere you go in China. They steal ideas, concepts or outright intellectual rights of domestic or foreign entities. Even many of the TV shows were copied versions of others or even American TVs. Often times when you pick up a copy of news paper, articles about overseas events or news were literally translated versions of news outlets of foreign countries. I say that because I am bi-lingual in Chinese and English. Many books they sell there are also translated versions pirated into the "author's" own.
If a country's rulers are lairs and cheaters since 1949, what do or can you expect from the public and its culture.
The root cause of China's problems and China - US problems are the commies that rule, steal from its own people and people abroad.
I never voted Republican in the past, me and my family hated Trump for the first 18 months of his administration. But not anymore. I am willing to go through paper losses on my retirement and non-retirement investment accounts for taking a hard line against the commies. I am willing to pay higher prices in what I have to buy here. No matter what flaws Trump has, people don't know how evil the Chinese communists rulers are.
Go Trump and go get the commies
11
Perhaps this is also an opportunity for Americans to purchase more American-made goods. I’m OK with that.
13
@Jake Yes but maybe you need to produce goods in America and at the price U.S. consumers have become accustomed to buy. With a massive Chinese market and a rising middle class eager to also buy more products form the west, you would thing that American firms would be lobbying hard against the actions taken by the Trump admin. European, Japanese firms and others will be happy to provide such goods instead...
2
@Jake
Opportunity? Yes in the long run...however decoupling depending on how quickly it transpire, will be detrimental in the short run. Before this opportunity arrives, we will have to feel the pain of stagflations and perhaps depression. Afterward we can reset and rebuilt.
Trump's act is a danger to economy, international relations, climate and any progress on so many complex and challenging issues in the world today. But never forget that he is only a symptom, not the cause. He has been elected by millions of disenfranchised Americans, stuck on low wages, poorly educated and with poor prospects for their kids. These people watched the corporations ' exorbitant profits, and the impunity of the finacial sector after it has created the 2008 crisis. All this has been a classic breeding ground for populism and nationalism, represented by Trump in the US, and similarly growing stronger in Europe by the day. I hope the Democratic presidential candidates get this and will offer a believable, better message of hope to the voters. However, I also fear that it may be too late - the US may need some eye-opening national catastrophy from Trump's policies before the majority will be able to see clear.
12
@Emrysz
Bernie Sanders realizes this! The important question seems to be, does Joe Biden?
1
I vividly remember when we didn’t trade with China at all, Nixon opened China. I also remember that at that time my dad went to work while mom raised the kids, every family on my middle class block on Long Island was like that. But the capitalists saw a opportunity to off shore manufacturing to a country that abuses it’s citizens, steals intellectual property and produces goods that are poorly made and n more than one case can cause you harm (there were a lot of Chinese sheet rock houses that could not be sold). I really don’t see any advantage to trading with China except for he Americans that own companies that produce consumer products.
There are plenty of countries that are not human rights violators that would be happy to trade with us.
What this is really over is that the Chinese are not willing to bank roll Donnie like the Russians and Saudis.
13
@Paulie
You said: "...produces goods that are poorly made and n more than one case can cause you harm ..."
You mean products like the Ford Pinto and the Boeing -800 MAX?
You said: "...plenty of countries that are not human rights violators that would be happy to trade with us..."
Yup! Saudi Arabia is not only a close American ally, it is a paragon of virtue where human rights are concerned. 5 of the 9-11 "friendlies" were Saudi Arabians. According to CNN, the US exported $3.4 BILLION worth of weapons to the Saudis. Good friend, good customer, never complained about the weapons we send them.
5
@Paulie
Here's the deal...China is the factory to the WORLD. Everywhere you go in the WORLD, their products- electronics, apparels, plastics goods etc etc.. are made in China. US is just one customer- sure biggest customer, to their factory. If we decides not to purchase from China anymore, guess what? There are many more emerging countries middle class that will fill this void in time. If you ever step afoot in Asia today, they are booming everywhere not just in China- India, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam etc, etc..US will suffer from its isolationist policy via massive inflations, shortages with attendant social/political unrest.
The article argues that China’s system of low human rights-based mercantilistic state capitalism negatively affected the pricing and wage structures in the United States and other developed economies.
Wow. Someone gets it!
20
@Martin Yes, it seemed to take an awful long time for manat Americans to get that. But of course Wall Street and other U.S. vested interests active in China are not pleased with these latest developments.
3
Both countries know, this is never about trade imbalance, it's all about checking China's ascent. Their leaders know, if they yield to all the US's demands, their country's future will forever be dependent on US's good will.
In essence, with this uncompromising stance, they are trying to quit their addictive dependence on US's lucrative market, cold turkey style. This may backfire badly, but it's something they'd have to do sooner or later, one way or the other. No way can, nor should any country hedge their own future on other's good will.
15
@Freddy I disagree. If it were true that they are trying to quit their addictive dependence on our market, it would be because they know we've reached the limit of tolerance for all their underhanded tactics and are ready to pull the plug.
Their technology has advanced so rapidly because of theft from companies operating there and hacking and stealing in this country. The companies operating in China are forced to give them access to their tech in order to do business there and the companies have acquiesced because they hedged that their gains would exceed their losses. It may have worked for those businesses in the short run but it doesn't work for the U.S. when China's tech industries are plying the global seas for markets and undercutting everyone with their pirated wares and who now hope to gain a huge share in 5G while convincing us they are a benign actor.
As far as checking China's ascent, I don't think we or other western countries would be concerned if it were not for the aggression becoming so evident in that ascent. Enough countries, already, who thought they were to benefit by China's belts and roads initiative have found themselves forfeiting their assets.
China is not to be trusted as a trading partner or a player on the world stage. Yet while we have been otherwise engaged in our internecine struggles, China has been "investing" in countries instead of warring but I expect the results might still be the same.
3
@Freddy
Of course this is part of the overall narrative. Our current skirmish is about "sizing one up" phase...We're just getting a reading where things stand.
Trump says he wants to level the playing field with China, well,news flash, the playing field is already level. Trump also says their is a crises at the southern border...no there is not, there is no crises at the border. Why do we have a president that makes things up? The only people who should have the power to vote for our next president are those who are well read and educated on these issues, people like Anderson Cooper, Rachel Maddow and Don Lemon. Not someone who lives in the sticks. There was a big discussion in social studies class yesterday about this crazy idea that everyone would be allowed to vote. That's not the way Athens did it and they invented Democracy.
5
Tariffs (which is nothing more than a tax) are the gateway to economic downturns and worse. The 1930s are the classic example, but by no means the only instance. That's where we're headed if we continue this madness.
The world cannot separate itself out. We are an interconnected economy, like it or not. Any attempt to disengage will damage the isolationists and wreak pain in exchange for the short-term burst of momentary pleasure.
The Chinese will not lose this stand-off. They won't. If they end up agreeing to a deal, it will be because they derive benefit from it. They are endlessly patient and find the kind of direct negotiating bloviating used by Trump and his minions adolescent and weak. They see us as soft, tantrum-throwers who don't have the wherewithal to accept relatively modest pain.
Of course, the Chinese are taking advantage of us and exploiting every loophole in the trading system to make profits. And, of course, we should fight back. But the tactics used by Trump of directly confronting China and speaking loudly will simply not work. They will fail, and our economy will descend into pain--which is the inevitable result of a tariff-driven approach.
For those on both the left and the right who think that's a good thing, consider whether venting and raging against the Chinese is worth more than our own prosperity.
If we took a less direct, more discrete and practical approach, we would have a lot better chance of success.
7
@Larry
"If we took a less direct, more discrete and practical approach, we would have a lot better chance of success."
I don't like Trump's bull in the china shop routine (or anything else he does for that matter) but I'm not sure the professional approach we have used since China joined WTO has been any more effective.
From the time China joined, as new kid on the block, they have been riding roughshod over the norms - promising to open their markets and then doing anything but and then finding many creative ways to steal technology.
China is not a reliable partner. Maybe they'll respond more to a crazy president who keeps them guessing than to business as usual.
12
@Blanche White They will not respond. They think we're goofballs and unworthy of respect. They look at the long picture--like thousands of years (not a few months of craziness, which means nothing to them). They simply do not regard Trump, and those who act like him seriously. They're just a blip in the long arc of history, and they don't care. They'll wait us out. And they'll win without breathing hard.
I would not be surprised if there's a deal at some point. But it will be too late to save our faltering economy, which tariffs have already seriously damaged. And, no matter how much Trump brags at winning the deal, the Chinese will likely have fleeced him bigly. They're not going to give up their political and economic system for a deal with us. No way. That's not how they work or think.
The Chinese have boxed Trump in. And Trump has no outs except continuing tariffs or agreeing to a a weak deal. They have near-infinite patience. And they work harder than we do. And they believe in education. We Americans are impatient children who throw tantrums at the drop of a hat and we don't have the knowledge-base to push their buttons--we're ignorant and out of our depth in this battle. They've already won this negotiation, and nothing has even happened really.
There's only one way to negotiate with them, and that's quietly, knowledgeably, consistently, and relentlessly. Trump has none of those qualities.
3
@Blanche White I agree. Trump is a loose cannon and while that make for a lot of anxiety here-- it could be an advantage with China who has been treating us like a chump for a long time. I don't thing sane and straight has garnered much respect from China.
3
I find it interesting that we've been "ok" with supporting the economic transfer of manufacture, trade, and the undercutting of American Labor for over 30 years. Chimerica works great for a certain class of Industrialists and American Capitalists who've owned the means of production. Cheap Labor, a government & corporate controlled workforce has lured jobs away from the United States with the help of trade deals that transferred technologies along with more jobs. Now here we are in 2019. The Chinese are looking for more markets. The United States wants a more level playing field. The Chinese are expanding beyond their shores to become the dominant economic power in Asia. They're building a blue water Navy to showcase their drive to expand.
The United States consumes far more goods from China than China does from the United States. It's time the United States flex some of that advantage in order to get a more equal trade agreement.
16
Re: The reference to Chimerica at towards the end of the article; I'd seen the episode of Niall Ferguson's brilliant TV series 'The Ascent of Money' entitled 'Chimerica' 10 years ago. It is interesting (frightening?) as he says, how China has become America's banker. Unless handled skillfully, the fallout from heightened tensions in this relationship can get ugly, quickly.
see: https://youtu.be/GV1cYHxe3mg
2
Globalism has only contributed to the wealth of single digit percentage of elite rich who controls up to 90% of the world's resources. On the other hand, it has sent millions and millions living hand to mouth and paycheck to paycheck into despair at the sadistic mercy of the elite money lenders and blood suckers. About time to think if this suffering needs to continue for the benefit of elites who is controlled by greed not their need because after all they cannot even live up to an age where they can enjoy the true benefits of such riches they have amassed but instead would turn into dust after creating a twisted, cruel and greedy world.
8
From my vantage point, the Chinese people, generally, seem smart, hard-working, and ethical. However, in the transition from a centrally-controlled economy and totalitarian government to whatever one might call China today, an oligarchy of well-connected billionaires usurped a lot of de facto power, while the fledgling, and mostly nominal democracy was unable or unwilling to regulate them.
Paradoxically, for a free market and democratic government to work, sustainably, regulations, accountability, transparency and a means to enforce the law are needed.
It’s not easy, and it takes time, and like a garden of delicate flowers, needs constant care and attention and weeding.
So, the real adversary, or adversaries, in our trade conflict with China are really its billionaires — whose unchecked business aggression, domestically, spilled over into its international dealings. China’s leader quite possibly also has a conflict of interest in cleaning up this problem, just as Putin does in Russia.
And the US is not exactly lily white either. The entire human race is at risk of powerful cheaters exploiting the vulnerable and honest.
Perhaps holding Trump more accountable at home forces him to act more aggressively on behalf of America when negotiating with other countries, at least with China. But with Russia? Time will tell. Watch this space.
11
For the Chinese, face-saving is as important as, if not more than, the real win in a bargaining game. In addition to the calculation of economic gains and losses, there's this fear of losing political control on both sides of the Pacific ocean. Trump may not be a respectable politician, but he surely is writing a new chapter in history.
10
I welcome Tariffs on all Chinese goods — it’s the best thing that could happen to this country and our planet.
1. It will slow down the manufacture and subsequent filling of landfills with cheap Chinese junk now filling Walmart aisles -
2. Keep money out of the hands of an authoritarian regime using American consumer’s cash to build islands in international waters to bully lesser militarily equipped neighbors into giving China their land.
3. And hopefully it will wake up the currently opiated Chinese (lulled into acquiescence economic betterment) to an authoritarian regime bent on having a facial recognition camera covering every square inch of China and disappearing any dissenting opinion from the internet.
I have long tried to not purchase items made in china- a task made next to impossible in today’s AmerIca— when things are as expensive as the real cost of the human labor that made them , the resources of the earth needed to manufacture them and the inevitable pollution caused by disposing of these consumer items-/ yes even iPhones—
It will be a good thing.
The cost to the earth of a plastic soap dish made in China is far more than the 79 cents it costs at best bath and beyond
25
@Jenniferlila- Your comment is spot on. Quality 'thrifting' is the new glamour shopping. That Made in China trinket that people may be contemplating may likely be found for less money and better quality at a charity shop.
10
@Jenniferlila
You have put into words exactly what I was thinking.
I would just add how I remember when China hosted the Olympics and the news segment featured a picture of Beijing. The city was almost opaque with pollution and many people were wearing masks. I thought then that so much of this was created to produce some cheap plastic junk to sell to U.S. like all the happy meals with a plastic toys inside. Incredible to think we dirty our home to produce such trash to make $'s.
At some point we need to think whether a product has so much negative consequence as to render it D.O.A. Maybe then businesses would change their habits.
8
@Jenniferlila
Don't like Wal-Mart and Bed Bath And Beyond?
Then, by all means, don't shop there. For many of us, though, they offer quality goods at relatively low prices, allowing us to manage our household budgets.
And, although an aside, employees at stores in this area are friendly, courteous and helpful.
I've been following this trade war with much interest. I've invested in a couple companies who's business is solely in China but trade on the US markets and I've lost some money since the war started. But, this is the only issue I'll probably ever support Trump with. Oh hey but oh well.
Having lived in Asia, this war isn't going to be over soon. And I can see both sides but see the arguments America make as far more important.
However, the GOP set this up, IMO. As a Gen Xer (keeping with the Time's very good review of Gen X today) I remember when Taiwan was making most our junk and folks complained. Well America, you wanted your Nikes but inflation and hardline uninstall bosses made the price beyond your wallet tastes and here we are.
I'm all for US companies coming back (wishful thinking but...)however we're gonna have impress upon our legislative leaders that US workers aren't here for slave wages and pathetic workplaces. This is a "Come to Jesus" moment and it would behove our leaders to wake up.
8
Stop invest in China, stop buying Chinese product, we were world leaders even before China, instead, develop South american countries, and improve their lives, so we can benefit in two fronts, one Get away from unreasonable China, second immigration, we don't have to build a wall, and continue as a civilized country.
16
@Thirdeye totally agree - spot on!
Let's invest in our backyard and make our neighborhood nice. It's sad to see all the small towns that have been devastated by all the industry leaving - textiles, manufacturing, etc. Most people in NY/LA/SF never see these places. Wake up!
12
“When one tugs at a single thing in nature, he finds it attached to the rest of the world.”
― John Muir
Humans are part of nature.
Good luck with that decoupling.
5
I use a German engineered chainsaw, the piston & cylinder are made in Italy, the carburetor is made in China in one carburetor factory, other parts are made all over the world, some models are assembled in the US. The chainsaws are sold and used all over the world. The Americans haven't made a decent competitive chain saw in forty years. There's only one other company that makes decent chainsaws and that's Swedish. They too source their parts from everywhere.
The only other competitive carburetor manufacturer is in Ireland. Nobody is going to move that one carburetor factory out of China just to satisfy the American market because the American market isn't big enough and nobody else is complaining about where their carburetors are made.
The Americans will just have to pay the tariff and shut up if they want a decent chainsaw because nobody is going to build chainsaws just for the American market. It's the same with thousands of other products, made for a global market.
6
Once the war breaks out,the masses of both country may get hurt.
1
I really don't understand why china doesn't want to accept a plane level market operation. And I also don't know why China thinks she can become the leading capitalist nation out of doing dubious things. No one is against China for doing better economically, but it shouldn't be at the expense of others. China needs to change her laws so that all competitors can have a fair treatment in their business dealings.
13
@Osman You don't understand because you have been fed lies and propaganda. "No one is against China for doing better economically"? and you say that with a straight face on? Apparently Trump and the US government are definitely against China for doing better economically and they are throw things they've got at China in order to stop it developing further. No, China did not develop at your expense, and China doesn't have to change its laws at US government's commend. They have said NO.
This report misses the political climate in China entirely. The state media stands by a hawkish position, and nationalist sentiments across the country overwhelm the cherrypicked opinions in this report.
Nationalism, in both US and China, is easy to provoke. Both are proud countries, and both people are proud people. This is Trump’s political game — playing into American pride.
With the nationalist sentiments, it’s all too easy to ignore the benefits of collaboration. Ironically, in a nationalist climate, each side thinks they will be better off in a fight.
This is how peace is broken, and how warmongers win.
13
American brands that were made in the US I remembered as a kid:
Vans
Levi's
Tonka
Esprit
Harley Davidson
Russell
Nowadays most things are made in places where people are paid significantly less, and consumers shop solely for price.
I know it's a pipe dream, but wouldn't it be great if we stopped buying from China. But how much would Nikes cost if people were paid minimum wage?
9
The Chinese government has little interest in negotiating with the us to meet trumps demands. They have crafted new trade partners with the rest of the world, focusing on expanding trade to Europe, South America, the Middle East, and Africa through their belt and road initiative. They are playing chess, while our government is playing checkers focusing on war with Iran and/or Venezuela. This is not about trade, it’s about power. Power shifting away from the US to another country. The Chinese realize that and have planned for it. Our deficit is getting higher, out tax revenue lower, our military budget larger.
22
Chinese people want China and the US to get along so that the international trading system is fair for both parties. China is having a hard time because it has an old form of governance. We need a China the trades fair and has open markets. The government is rich enough to at act as an international player. Look at the success of Huawei. I hope President Xi and President Trump can find the middle ground, because the real war is against Climate Change.
12
@Jeff Stockwell China is not the one who pulled out of the Paris Climate Accord.
4
@Shaggy Good point. There will be no progress on Climate Change until we have a democratic union. The planet is not ruled by the people. It is ruled by the rich and powerful - China, US, and Russia.
5
@Jeff Stockwell The "real war" may be against climate change but the liar-in-chief watching TV and sleeping in the SH doesn't even know that. So all he does is transaction after transaction without a plan let alone a vision. As they say election has consequences so we are stuck with the idiot for now.
3
So let's see what happens-- Stop all Chinese ood and products from coming into the US. Hey, let's include products from Mexico and other countries. That srceam that you hear is coming from US consumers.
8
I'm mildly surprised about those who mention about China's poor labour and environmental laws and regulation, deficient rule of law, basic rights, corruption and cronyism, all of which has led to the theft of intellectual property.......but maybe it's good at the same time for self-reflection. These are also prevalent in the US and it all boils down to a group of elites with powerful interests and influence shaping the rules, laws and regulations of a country.
There are very powerful, influential interests in China that is beyond the reach (let alone thought) of many ordinary people. If one is not a high ranking party official, or bureaucrat, businessman with political sensibilities, it is another world altogether. To paint such a broad brush of such a large country with so many people of different social stratification and background is misleading.
4
Replying to Aloysius, the bland assumption that the type and kinds of theft and malpractice that are typified by poisoned baby food, mislabeled medicine and many other horror stories, endemic in China, are the same in the U.S. staggers. China does not have honest and reliable quality controls for much of their home grown industry. Backed by honest and reliable law enforcement. Corporations that invest in China, also invest in their quality control measures being carried out. What happens when China seizes ownership of the “means of production?” Loss of value. After all it is a Communist country. They do that.
1
President Trump is doing the making the right moves with China. The Chinese will lie and cheat, they always have and will continue. There will be some slowdown for a lot of Americans and others that actually pursue free trade. At the end of the day a lot of companies need to shift their manufacturing out of China. That would level the field. China cannot be trusted and their neighbors are already worried about their expansion.
18
So how many Chinese products have you purcahsed over that time period. BTW did you complain when prices went down because of Chinese manufacturing? Oh, id you know that about 96% of all clothes and footwear are made overdeas? So boycott all goods made in China and overseas -- sure.
6
“President Trump is doing making the right moves”
Were you top of your class at Trump University?
5
China is unable to change its system to meet the demands of the US without risking social upheaval and bloody turmoil while the US should no longer acquiesce to transferring its wealth to China.
China has made out quite well over the past 2-3 decades. Instead of acting the ingrate it should say 'Thanks America' for helping lift over 300 million people of its people out of poverty and refocus its industries on its domestic market. The free ride on the US is at an end.
24
China has totally taken advantage
16
Some 35 years ago, I was working as an in-house language consultant at a big-name Japanese manufacturer. I heard this story at that time but can't vouch for its veracity.
The company received an order for a urban airport to be constructed somewhere in China, so the company set to work creating a specification that outlined every nut and bolt required for the construction. It came to look like a large set of encyclopedias.
The Chinese representatives came to collect the specification, and when asked when construction would begin, the Chinese side thanked the company for all its effort, but they would be doing the construction themselves. Having gotten away with it on this occasion, it seems to have become their standard practice.
31
@John Bockman
When U.S. invaded the island of Granada in the Caribbean in 1983 (Operation Urgent Fury) the Cubans were there already very busy making the plans and devises for the new airport... The American soldiers said:—Garbage— go away—You're no more needed—You're in fact war prisoners—. Then, later on, even today, you can admire this airport beautifully constructed with all the plans and devises made by the Cubans.
5
Let us know when you can vouch for its veracity, veracity being at a premium in this age and it’s new and “improved” definition of the term: fact. Or Free Press. Or Checks and Balances. Whilst we point our fingers at the slave state Chinese.
Apocryphal musings...who has that kind of time while we conscious and suffering lovers our country (in spite of itself) are desperately trying to salvage what’s left of our crumbling infrastructure at home whilst China builds high speed trains connecting the African continent while we rattle along on our Amtrak aging Choo-Choos.
America is its own worst enemy, at least its people’s who are not members in good standing of the private criminal class.
All those chest-thumping “patriots” (see hypocrites) sold this country and it’s citizens down the river of penury and want, poverty and crime, ages ago.
The imminent collapse of our infrastructure will make the fall of the “Red Keep” in last Sunday’s episode of Game of Thrones, look like a walk in the park while Chinese citizens and people from every other advanced nation, visit our great shining capitalist Gotham only to laugh at our self hatred, as they watch rats feeding on the carcass of our subway systems.
As Trump himself would say: LOSERS!!!!! And Putin would say: HOORAY!!!!
1
It's unfortunate that this is happening as both countries have more to gain by free trade. In any case, this is a massive boon to the nations surrounding China that have been buffeted by the strong trade winds between the US and China. Nations like Korea, Japan, and Vietnam will be the ultimate winners of this trade war. China *can* fight a trade war with the US, but only if it makes good with its neighbors at the same time. This will hopefully produce a kinder, gentler China, one less willing to use Japan as a scapegoat, less willing to prop-up North Korea, and less likely to press on Vietnam.
7
@Aaron That was precisely what the TPP was for. Now they are moving to RCEP, which makes China even more powerful in the region.
3
People of China! You, above all others, understand the vast sweep of time. Our current discomfort is the blink of an eye. We Americans share your unhappiness, understand it, and will do all we can to see it pass quietly into a dark corner of history.
4
Those who still think the existing trade relations with China are a fair and beneficial must be either CEOs or owning shares of major corporations.
21
STEVE BANNON: “I think the goal in China is quite simply to break the back of this totalitarian-mercantilist-economic society!”
Bannon's interview in the Frontline documentary "Trump's Trade War." Bannon, the chief architect of Trump's nationalism, says he wants to break the back of "Chimerica."
9
The US has counting China collapse for 2 decades (G Chang's book) and China is still kicking and they are counting the implosion of the American Empire. Both countries may go their separate ways and only time will tell which one is going to endure. The work ethics, the ability to improvise, common philosophy based on Confucianism are the reason, China will survive without the US.
5
@Ted chyn
Now that's funny. China has survived solely from gaming a system that it pretends to participate in while wringing it's citizens dry to mass produced low quality garbage that breaks easily so they can make and sell all that much more. Confucianism holds about as much weight in modern China as anything else post-Cultural Revolution i.e. less that a Yuan, and the Chinese Cheat Ethic, a social plague created from a desperation to survive in a culture controlled by the biggest liars and cheaters in the world, will keep them from ever truly flourishing without relying on theft of a global scale - something you won't see until a certain Pooh bear is jettisoned from power as his reeducation camps, obsessive censorship, and oppressive control prove to fail in uplifting the people he views as disposable pawns in his pursuit of power.
8
@Clicks Tell us again how you have stopped purchasing goods made in China. After all you undersatnd that they were aming the system and you refused to play thir game.
This is a sad but in some ways inevitable end to our cycle of prosperity and global growth. There is something in human nature that rebels from a good thing that lasts too long, and hankers for a fight as memories of bad times fade.
It has been almost 100 years since the last round of big wars, and after 3 generations and a much smaller world we are all ready yet again for action. I fear for the next decade, if testosterone continues to rule.
12
@Baddy Khan
Yes, China could have had a very different future, but the Communists want to control everything in the world.
7
@Baddy Khan agreed.
Life is literally all about cycles... and our human history shows patterns of rise and fall just as the sun and moon do every day.
@Baddy Khan
Very astute observation about human nature. I also believe America is headed to bad times next in decade or two.
Probably will work out soon with some not to consequential gains for Trump to brag about. Anyway, we have to live with this guy for another 20 months...Why shouldn't China? At least they have not been a really fair actor recently.
5
In Japan, our daily life looks quite similar; almost all daily items are made in China. However, the trade between China and Japan has been basically balanced, for instance, a bit surplus of Japan in 2018. Why this can happen in China-Japan and cannot in China-US?
12
@KI because the trade balance does not matter, and that the US does not specialize in manufacturing, unlike Japan.
4
Circumventing China would be easier if trump hadn’t bailed on TPP. Can’t have any credit going to Obama though.
18
Not a fan of this admin by any stretch, but China has been systematically undercutting US workers and farmers for years. Trump was the first and only major politician to reverse course on WTO and NAFTA. Hold China to labor, currency, environmental and intellectual property standards!
27
@gizmos
Other than a name change, after all his grandstanding NAFTA remains 95% unchanged.
14
Totally agree that "The conflict wasn’t about the United States being threatened by China’s growth, but by its vision of state-led capitalism - the conflict of systems,” he wrote. “It won’t end easily.”
10
Li Luan is late to the table
Chimerica ended on September 30, 2018, when the Chinese guided missile destroyer Luyang destroyer approached USS Decatur within 45 meters in the South China Sea, and Chinese captain transmitted to the US captain "Get Out of Our Way 'Or Suffer Consequences"
The USS Decatur had to go in full reverse to avoid a collision.
The US helped China rise, yes. China used the help to build the world's largest blue water Navy, challenging the US in the Pacific
Enough is enough. Mr Wu should be thankful that so far the US has only considered tariffs
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/world/asia/china-navy-aircraft-carrier-pacific.html
16
We should have bombed the artificial islands in South China Sea when China first built them.
12
@Father Of Two Up to point I agree, we should have done sanctions first and then left military options on the table. China's fait accompli militarization the Spratleys are missed opportunities by both Dems and Repubs. Responding at least via sanctions was something every other country in the region would have supported and we could have built a coalition to stop it. Now we're stuck with them.
8
@Father Of Two
That would have been disastrously extreme when even a simple blockade around the island would have sufficed (if still risky and more likely a waste of resources for both sides). Regardless, as taleaofgenji stated their military build up is fueled entirely by their economic clout - pull it out from under them and their ambitions will collapse.
4
Oh my, the globalists upset over a president putting America first. Imagine that, citizens of various countries are tired of shoddy goods, rotten imported food and compromised medicine from certain countries. Cry me a river over China's problems. The tone deaf attitudes of politicians and the media is why Trump will probably get reelected and the Brexit movement is stronger than ever.
22
The connections, etc with the United Sates was done through REAL diplomacy not threats and not tariffs!
It seems that all the talk is what is going to happen to the Chinese market for our goods, well people where o you think ALL the goods are made? Their economy ids massive. The rest of the world is sick and tired of The Dolt and are looking for new open markets with much less volatility and surprises then what we have to offer with this faux administration.
McKinley was done in by an angry person because of tariffs. History has proven time and again this idea of tariffs and protectionism are useless in the long game. And who is hurt the most by all this, at present? The farmers! Oh!, and who is being bailed out because of the tariffs?, The US Gov't meaning us and our $$$.
6
More than a billion people of which increasing numbers are graduating in higher education, it is inevitable that China will continue to rise.
How China rises and the speed of its rise may well be non-linear and President Trump's tariffs may temporarily slow its growth.
However the danger is that if rules based America arbitrarily breaks the rules when it is the most powerful economy, then why should China abide by a rules based system when it eventually rises to parity or beyond ?
7
@Peter J. Fair enough ANZAC, but considering that China's a communist country (something I have to constantly point out to Repubs here who go on about Reagan "beating" communism), what makes you think they'd ever abide by any rules? They get big enough they'll set their own rules the rest of us will be stuck with. Yeah, the US does this, but at the very least we work within a (more or less) democratic framework, and up until Dump we generally acted in partnership with our allies (including NZ). We haven't been perfect or even right many times, but a world dominated by China is not a world for western democracy. It's not even a world for democracy.
5
@Peter J.
The Communists would rather a stable internal government rather than prosperity or growth. Xi is action a lot like Mao and Mao brought China to its knees.
2
@James Strawn Hi James. Would I rather have the US than China as the most powerful country in the world ? Absolutely. If I could nominate one country to be the strongest it would be the US.
My criticism is that the post-WW2 rules based political and economic architecture that the US was primarily responsible for is being dismantled by the self-same US for short sighted temporary gain, just at time when China is rising fast.
For example instead of TPP, which would have given the US huge leverage in Asia-Pacific, President Trump has levelled the playing in China's favour by his short term vision.
4
I don't believe Trump is "smart" to know what's he's saying and doing.... Really.
but I wonder... Who is behind all this...
5
The Chinese should be very worried! Nixon pulled China out of the mud and Trump will return China to a mud hut if their Communist regime refuses to cooperate per free and “ fair” trade principles....
11
@Moe
Nixon went to China not China came to America to get a deal done..think about that. Perhaps by doing so, it was the beginning of the end for USSR empire. Also this might've been the grand bargain with America and China behind close doors of course China will never fess up to this since Russia is their next door neighbor. Now Trump putting China back into mud hut, I doubt it. If we keep this up with our isolationist policies, we may find ourselves one day in that mud hut.
I blame Sen. Dole for arguing that China be given Most Favored Nation status so his State of Kansas could sell wheat to China in 1980. Read the details in old LA Times article https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1996-04-12-mn-57858-story.html.
This is a Harvard Case Study used in Business Schools to study outcomes. Dole ignored human rights to sell wheat and win his election.
25
A 100--150 billion USD trade deficit with China for America may be desirable, though anything above this seems deleterious to American industry, jobs, technology, and democracy. DT needs to stand strong against authoritarian China. A trade - cap, similar to a sports salary cap, may be an idea worth fleshing out.
8
you thought outside the box
@Kevin
Let's see how tariffs work out.
2
Trump is out of his league. Xi is in control as long as he wants and the Chinese have always played the long game. Xi does not need to appease Trump, he just needs to outlast him.
9
@Dane Madsen Yes, exactly. Trump is an historical blip for the Chinese. They do not take Trump's approach seriously., and they'll simply wait him out. They know we're impatient and volatile (while the Chinese are patient and consistent). They have boxed in Trump into a position where he either has to continue tariffs or agree to a weak deal. Whichever way he chooses, the Chinese will win. If we took a different approach--consistency, relentlessness, quiet, and knowledge--we could win, but that's not going to happen under this administration.
I warned by student back in 1991 that the Cold War never ended, that the epicenter shifted from Moscow to Beijing...How true its turning out to be...
12
The USA does not have a five hundred billion dollar deficit with trade from China. Much of the Chinese imports from China are only assembled in China. Some parts are made in Japan and a variety of other countries. Less than ten percent of the cost of Apple phones goes to China. The other expenditures goes to other countries including the Apple Company.
Why doesn't the news media mention it? China does take our companies research. That is a different problem.
8
China is not the enemy here. The dictatorial, militaristic, unscrupulous Chinese state is. America and its allies need clarity of vision, without being swayed by short-sighted and ignorant self-proclaimed pundits
Then, recognize the Cold War with China, and isolate it from the West as we isolated the USSR. War has to be fought as war. The Communists won't easily come to their senses. But the USSR experience shows that they will.
7
Communist in name only if you ask me. They seem to have become among the best capitalists on the planet.
7
@Subhash Garg Yes, unlike the U.S. which is neither dictatorial, nor militaristic, nor unscrupulous. Trump has no authoritarian tendencies, and he always defends democracy. Our elections are always fair and open to all. We never fight wars, and we have a completely free market.
Other countries do not look at us as a paragons of virtue, and we should stop acting as if we are perfect and virtuous. We are neither. We have legitimate complaints about Chinese trade practices, but we look profoundly hypocritical when we criticize the Chinese for many of the same things in which we engage.
More than anything, tariffs will damage us economically, as it did right before the Great Depression. Is that really what we want again?
I love seeing the indignant attitude of an America that profited off of the backs of Chinese labor through the last century. Even when we brought them to San Francisco we still found a way to practically enslave them. Now with a global economy that they can go toe-to-toe with us we suddenly feel wronged? I sometimes cannot blame foreigners for calling us racketeers.
Japan on the other hand will end up paying dearly for all of this. As America continues to hound Asian markets for looking out for themselves the stagnant NIKKEI will continue to grasp at straws for a miracle in 2020 while China hits a reset button.
5
@Amit C.
This is why Trump was voted in..Americans, conservatives or liberals, all over are feeling victimized and wronged.
6
@Amit C. ...and not only from the Chinese cheap labor.... The have and still benefit from the latino/immigrant cheap labor... The epitome example of "throwing ta rock, but hiding the hand"... mentality...
I just can't wait to see Trump fans picking up the fruit and vegetables for the rest of us...
5
if you could just convince everyone that they were put on Earth to pick our crops.
3
China has built a vast supply of medium range nukes and will not join the US and Russians to discuss a reduction. The Russians broke our European deal because of a threat from China.
5
Factories require heavy pollution to produce cheap goods. Which American wants that in their homes?
5
Earth is my home. And the prevailing wind is westerly...
4
the ones with morals
4
Most Americans don’t think deeply about this. They purchase this and that and plod ahead.
9
America doesn't really compete globally with manufactured goods which is why Iphones are made in China and GM does not export a lot of American made cars. America does excel in tech however, especially software and stick with what it does best. Manufacturing jobs will go to Vietnam or another country, not return to the USA.
7
The only "people" ripped off by China are corporations. And they willingly exchanged the "rip" for dollars. Billions and billions of them.
So next time Trump says Americans were ripped off, think about that and what that new toaster cost you, and who has those ripped off dollars from your purchases.
Not to mention the "free" money loaned to us by China from all those ultra low interest paying U.S. Bonds they purchased.
Trump has no clue what trade is.
11
The Trans Pacific Partnership was an elegant, thoughtful mechanism for dealing with China’s rapacious trade policy. But we passed on that approach, so we’re left with Trump theatrics. Might work, but will cause tremendous collateral damage - bicycles, phones, laptops, most items in Walmart. Supply chains that took decades to create will take decades to replicate.
I have my bike, phone, laptop, so I’m good. Those hardworking soybean farmers, not so much.
15
@Gimme Shelter
TPP would have never passed Congress.
Even Hillary opposed it.
1
@Dr. John
Is this the same TPP that Hillary Clinton called the "gold standard"?
3
@Sam
No.
“"I did say, when I was secretary of state, three years ago, that I hoped it would be the gold standard," Clinton said. "It was just finally negotiated last week, and in looking at it, it didn't meet my standards. My standards for more new, good jobs for Americans, for raising wages for Americans. And I want to make sure that I can look into the eyes of any middle-class American and say, ‘this will help raise your wages.’ And I concluded I could not."
At this point, China is simply not a civilized country. They have crushed Tibet, they have crushed dissent in Hong Kong, and are busy crushing the Uighers. Not to mention the peaceful Falun Gong. The sponsor the nuclear terrorism of North Korea and they declare vast areas of international ocean under their control.
It's way past time to see them for the outlaws they are.
33
@Amy And we should also see the Chinese PEOPLE for what they are. It is their even-worse-than-Trump, even-more-belligerent-than-Trump government that is the problem, not the 99.99999% of the Chinese people. Seems to me that kernel of the problem is pretty isolated. And in November 2020, half the problem is going to get solved, if not before.
1
but the anti America crowd in this country doesn't want to pay an extra fifty bucks for that fifth TV.
7
why are you unable to look past all that in order to get cheap goods? Many of the anti-America crowd are able to.
2
So much legitimate suspicion of China in these pages and among these comments.
However, when a POTUS has the tenacity to take it on, the partisan NYTimes and NPR head to Nebraska to find out why farmers are not up in arms over the pain they are experiencing as collateral pawns in the battle. These farmers, they say with incredulity are Trump voters!!
Perhaps the Trump phenomenon is built on more than emotion. Perhaps deplorable Americans see a leader with principles. Deplorable as he himself may be. And he certainly is all of that and worse.
8
@Stuart Trump certainly has no principles, but if my father were still alive instead of buried in Arlington (not too far from my grandfather) maybe they could debate Dad's 2 tours in VN vs Trump's bone spurs. Having said that if Trump actually gets this right then good for America. I hope I am wrong and you correct on this. Nothing partisan to a win for the USA.
3
@Stuart perhaps farmers have been conned by a con artist and that is the real reason some still love Trump.
2
@Stuart
Thank you, Stuart!
2
Stealing IP? What has China exactly stolen? Nuclear, railway, etc technologies were SOLD to China by West and Japan.
Chinese cheap labor? China is rapidly becoming the most automated country in the world, with more robots than the US.
US citizens dare talk about human rights? The US is assassinating people around the world using drones, and it arms the genocidal regime of Saudi Arabia.
Chinese dictatorship? California gets 2 senators even if its population equals the population of the 20 smallest states (that get 40 senators) and the current president lost the election by 3 million votes. A real democratic US would have wildly different leaders and policies.
Chinese censorship? What has William Barr just done?
Chinese propaganda? Trump is demonizing China the same way that in the past we demonized Cuba, Vietnam, Iran, Libya, etc etc: the industrial-military complex needs an enemy to justify how it wastes your tax money. And Trump needs a distraction from his endless scandals.
I'm all in favor of China liberalizing their political system, but the last country that can go and preach democracy and human-rights to them is the USA. Meanwhile, someone should come and preach democracy and human rights to the USA.
At best, this trade war is a distraction so that US citizens will forget that North Korea is still developing nuclear missiles that can strike the USA.
At worst, Trump is simply serving Russia's interest: disintegrate the US empire, both militarily and economically.
22
How many wealthy American elites are lining up to buy second homes in China and want to educate their children in China? ZERO!
How many wealthy Chinese elites are lining up to buy second homes in the United Stats and want to educate their children in the U.S? Over 12,000!
At the end of the day, they want to come here! We need to use this as leverage! Start revoking visas, confiscating property and begin deporting these people!
15
@Aaron- American children are not bright enough to study in China. They have a hard enough time speaking their own language let alone someone else's.
Unless I am mistaken, a foreigner can only buy one home in China and they must dwell there. You can't just buy up property there to hide cash like we allow other countries to do here.
3
@Aaron
When you say "deporting these people" are you referring to Asians or people of Chinese descent who may be 3rd or 4th generation in America?? Just curious..
2
China never ever accepted WTO rules of international trade. But in 2001, over enthusiastic American Govt, heavily lobbied by big American (and other) companies, either did not realize true Chinese intension or deliberately ignored it to benefit mostly those companies. Massive Growth in profit by almost all American companies did not translate into overall prosperity of vast majority of Americans- in terms of wages, savings, or so.
Chinese tactics since then is a very typical in the way such autocratic regimes negotiate almost any geopolitical issue- empty promises that they never intend to keep, besides playing with our open society and its democracy against us.
In a way this trade war is good that USA and other western countries need to reassess its trade policies and make it more accountable to its national interest and interest of its people, not just those companies which make huge profit using massive abuse of human rights and lack of labor laws in most developing countries, more so with a very repressive autocratic rule as in China.
This trade war will also reduce a large part of conspicuous consumption that most consumers in western countries, mainly in the US, is so known for. That over consumption is fueled by cheap products is a huge problem for the world and climate change.
17
@bonku "This trade war will also reduce a large part of conspicuous consumption that most consumers in western countries, mainly in the US, is so known for" Nope.
1
@bonku
Well said, well written.
While I despise Trump, the one place where he *might* hold to an actual principle is dealing with China. If Trump breaks up Chimerica, it will be a huge achievement for his administration. It is about time that someone stood up to China.
I hope for once Trump doesn't lose his spine if the stock market drops.
In the long run, breaking up Chimerica is much more important.
13
@bonku
A local retailer explained the change in the quality of women's clothing and accessories manufactured in China. She described a popular leather goods brand as an example: "The hardware was brass; the material all leather." But no longer--yet their products cost more today than 30 years ago. Do Americans pay less for products manufactured in China? No, but the profits on cheaply-made "high-end" fashion must be impressive.
4
Relax. Before it's all over, to protect their billions, the families of the Fortune 500 will be arranging marriages with the nobility of ascendant China. In 3-4 generations they'll be effectively Chinese. Demographics don't lie. They never have. They are hard to accept because they step all over primordial sentiments that often lead to conflict before the dust finally settles. History, seen geometrically, recapitulates the DNA molecule. That's why you see the repetition of chaos against all reason. You read it here first but Asimov was onto it decades ago.
11
So many Americans have become so used to the current status quo of China manufacturing all their goods they can't see any alternative beyond that reality.
A brief explanation is as follows;
Manufacturers begin making goods in America. As such, they hire workers who receive fair wages and benefits.
With their paychecks, they pay income tax, social security, etc.
With increased tax revenues, the government needs to borrow less money and can start to pay down the deficit.
With more tax revenue, the government can also afford to fund important things like education, infrastructure, etc.
The workers themselves can now afford a better quality of life as well, and perhaps buy houses, cars and washing machines, etc.
And if an "imported" $10 shirt goes up to $14 at Walmart, maybe well paid workers can go and shop elsewhere, and perhaps buy an American shirt, for $20, and it won't matter because they'll be making far better money at their manufacturing jobs to be able to afford it, without a care in the world, and not have to work at Walmart and struggle to make ends meet.
It's the end of an era and the dawn of a new age.
Adapt and embrace it.
5
It seems to me that the American-Chinese trading relationship and American security vis a vis China could be much improved, and possibly fixed, through a series of incremental steps, the first of which would be hard protection of American intellectual property and wringing out cyber-theft. By both sides. After that, a slow but steady adjustment of who sells what, and how much, to who to reduce the trade imbalance. The Republican party, and our "president" in particular, don't seem to get it. We ARE to a certain degree as responsible for the half-billion Chinese rural poor as we are for the American poor in Appalachia and the U.S. rust belt. That is, IF we want to avoid a global conflict that will ultimately lead to millions of losers and no winners.
Where are all the Evangelical Christians in this argument ? Seems like they are all for Christian values until the first hint that their wallet might become a little thinner ; then, they run away as as fast as their fat little legs will waddle.
1
China’s standard of living has improved. Depending on who you ask, ours has stayed the same or declined. I’m no Trump fan and didn’t vote for him (or any man for that matter) but at least he is trying something.
8
@HO
Doesn't the fact that China started from a horrendously low standard of living matter?
The China of 30 years ago had no running water in the countryside, and undrinkable water in the city. Minimal electricity. I remember seeing cabbage piled up on people's porches, because, with its thick outer leaves, it would last longer without refrigeration. A bicycle was a major purchase. People wore blue or green Mao suits everyday. They had nowhere to go but up.
Our standard of living has declined primarily because Republicans have steadfastly refused to invest in those things that could improve it, like education, basic infrastructure and health care. And Trump isn't doing anything about any of that, he's just blaming China and immigrants. He is not "trying" to do anything except appease his base.
13
The more the US isolates itself from China, the more it will hurt the American consumers and the US economy with clear political repercussions on the home front. In the long run, isolationism will help China leverage and nurture new markets to compensate. And, make no mistake about it, it is doing this big times. The era of the US dominating everything is over. Potential international customers now have a choice, and they will always choose the best deal. US propaganda notwithstanding.
6
Thinking of China or any other trading partner as a foe is completely counter productive for both. It's a mindset that politicians promote in order to maintain power independent of the political system or it's ideology. When politics and the means of achieving desired ends are put aside both China and the US have the need to continuously grow their economies, and that goes for every other developed and developing country on the planet. The only way that can be is if we realize that economic prosperity is not a zero sum game. If we can grow the world's economy, without destroying the planet or killing each other in tragic wars, something we can do, but only do TOGETHER, we can indeed have a better future for ALL humans and ALL living things.
3
@MattG
Thinking of a person, who constantly cheats you and steals from you, as a friend is foolish bordering on delusional, and in any event, is no way to manage a commercial relationship.
4
@MattG
China is not a trading partner. They are rapacious. For decades we have allowed them to sell their goods here, but Americans are restricted from selling in China. So our manufacturing jobs have moved to China. Mr Trump is rightings the balance. Americans will once again make the goods sold here.
2
Overconsumption
Warming our plastic oceans
Nothing else matters
9
A haiku should cause a realization, not infer a judgment. Much like the issue with environmentalists these days busily preaching on their smartphones.
Nonetheless you are right, but others aren’t going to realize it just cause you say so.
I don’t mind the occasional judgmental or prescriptive haiku.
1
The guy who knows nothing about economics, doesn’t read, bankrupts himself more than anyone is leading the charge on this. Obviously those around him are steering this for personal gain and wealth and again congress does nothing
8
Think about this:
China is horribly polluted and contaminated.
They are irrigating the crops on contaminated land using contaminated water. China has forever contaminated a full 10% of their arable land in a short 30 years.
Their air is so bad, doctors say a pink lung is an anomaly.
There’s heavy metals in the soil, air, food and rivers.
China won’t have to worry about their senior citizens because they’re dropped like flies.
We really *dont* want most of those precious manufacturing jobs here.
Below is a wiki link, it’s long but if you read the first paragraph you’ll get the idea.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_in_China
Thanks for reading.
11
@New World
True. I taught a number of Chinese foreign students over the years and the first thing they say about North America is how clean it is.
2
China was never our friend and after thirty years of pandering to China, someone in government finally realizes that China has stolen our lunch as well as our souls; we no longer make anything here in America; China sends us their inferior goods and plenty of illicit drugs to numb the populous while they rape this country of intellectual property and hoard space in our universities.
Why did our Congress let this happen; no one has been looking out for the benefit of our citizens, they only sent our young people, those young people who were not stoned from drugs, to wars in other countries to boost our military might.
Either we are a functioning country that takes care of our people or we continue to pander and let our international companies that have become mega wealthy on the backs of middle America continue to evade taxation and enrich China.
Thank you Trump et.al. for tackling this problem as well as illegal immigration. You, in many ways are realigning America; tough days ahead.
12
@JRS
Of course our govt takes cares of our people...thats why 50million Americans get govt welfares every month
Making stuff for delivery in U.S. through Amazon.com was a habitude and worked beautifully because Chinese, small-medium factories and their workers adapted well to the dominant production model of the time. Now, China is forceful building its own internal market. It's still the time of gigantic infrastructure like bridges, harbours, bullet-train networks, airports, even entire cities... If the proportions keep their trends, China internal market announces becoming gargantuan as everything else. And the Amazon.com, Walmarts already present in China are growing. What about Baidu and its 740 M web pages? What about the massive use of card payments and internet transactions in everyday's life? For the moment the Europeans are reaping the Chinese market with their luxury creations, a market which by itself (the Chinese wealthiest) represents the entire U.S. population. Ford, GM (with tariff added) competing with Mercedes, Peugeot, BMW? Good luck...
1
We went to an American branded shoe store yesterday in Anaheim to purchase shoes for my children and literally all products there had been made in China. What folly!
To ship shoes half way around the word (at some environmental cost may I add!) from China, where these products were made by what essentially are indentured servants under an oppressive regime, which combines the worst of both communism and capitalism. And then the Chinese factory owners show up as cash home buyers here in Southern California to park their wealth and drive up home prices.
There is a brand of sneakers which is exclusively made in America, and I always purchase those, though they are a bit more expensive. The tariffs will certainly help this US company.
I absolutely had enough of Chimerica. Do we really need more Dollar-store junk, or can we produce locally and sustainably?
201
@Wolf Bein If you are referring to New Balance as the brand "which is exclusively made in America" -- as I've seen done before -- be aware that they don't actually manufacture any of it in the USA, they produce components of the shoe overseas and then ship them here for final assembly.
Perhaps better approach than Nike, but from the POV of your concerns about "shipping shoes half way around the word at some environmental cost" really no difference at all.
30
@MadManMark
The average woman does NOT live by one pair of shoes. Check out their closets. I can honestly guess there's at least 12 of the following: shoes (all types), pants and jeans, blouses and tops, dresses, jackets and coats, underwear, leggings, belts, handbags, scarves, jewelry....and that's just the closet!
Guys are no different! Check what's in the basement and garage.
We're a country of excess and waste and we love it.
14
@Wolf Bein
Lol, there are no sneakers exclusively made in America. Perhaps assemble..
8
One can date the origin of the U.S.-China troubles to 2001, when China was granted permission to join the WTO.
The theory was that China would have to play by the honor-bound international rules of trade.
Perhaps, the thinking went, China might also veer away from one-party Communist totalitarianism.
I'm no fan of Trump, but let it be said that he has revealed the Party's iron grip over the country's economy; its co-opting of Chinese national sentiment for its own purposes; its existential fear that the Party is only one incendiary, rebellious incident away from civil war against its own people.
The Party, in its own estimation, cannot gamble on relinquishing its ability to seed new businesses and support them until they are dominant in the world markets.
China's admission to the WTO was a monumental, uncorrectable mistake.
153
@Taz
I can agree with what you say, but a tax on US consumers seems like a "Give me what I want or I'll shoot my dog argument." China can shoot all their dogs with a command. Donald Trump has "XI Envy".
8
@Taz spot on with the WTO. China should have never been accepted into it base on their human right's record alone. Isn't that the reason other countries were denied entry? We are starting to see the damage that's done when "business people" run a government.
14
@Taz
So how would WTO have any credibility without the biggest trader, China as member? It would be so ridiculous and China would just form their own trade organization. WTO had no choice..
4
Politicians rally their base around China being the enemy. Yes China is messed up in countless ways, but American companies sold out the American people by offshoring manufacturing and jobs for greed and profit. No one forced our companies to go overseas except greedy investors. The rust belt is what it is today because of American capitalist greed. What we hear is that China is stealing our jobs. American corporations stabbed the American worker in the back, so don't blame China for all of our economic suffering.
280
@Phil M
In fact Trump is not blaming the chinese. He blames americans. You are right on
8
@Phil M...as one downsized in the 80s---no, not the 90s and NAFTA, the 80s---yours is the most pertinent point here. Hard to wave Old Glory and swell up over trade wars when our own corporations that control us aren't interested, and haven't been since the reign of St Ronnie.
23
@Phil M
As they would say in the Bronx: Big Truth.
15
About Chimerica, plenty of lessons can be learned from the past slogan Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai, which means Chinese and Indians are brothers reflecting the relations between India and China in 1950’s. That is the time China wants India’s help on sovereignty over Tibet. Shortly after signing the agreements there was India-China war. The Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai now history. Similarly, they needed America to develop and so Chimerica, now they are developed and so the trade war. The Chimerica will be soon be a history. After trade war ended, the relations between America and China will be similar to India-China relations that are based on mutual benefit. For example, India is not part of the Chinese BRI project, because CPEC goes through POK territory. Similarly, the future US-China relations depends on Mutual benefits.
2
How amusing all of this will seem within the next five or ten years. Think about it; Drones will deliver your packages, groceries, and pizzas. Automation (Computers) will drive your car- Take your order at a restaurant and clean your house. About 30% of all current jobs will be lost to automation by 2025.
These changes will make this trade spat...er war... seem like nothing short of a joke.
The problem? China has no choice but to grow its economy. It must do this just to keep up with its population growth. Even with China growing older- It needs a robust +6% growth rate just to keep from growing old before it grows rich.
The problem? Growth never continues forever...
By 2050 (31 years...!) China will have over 330 million people over the age of 65. That's about the population of the United States -today.
The United States has become so intoxicated with debt (as has Japan & Europe) that most fear that's it is just a matter of time before this ticking bomb explodes to the likes that we have not seen since the 1930s.
Simply; When you owe the bank thousand dollars and cannot pay it back-It's your problem. When you owe the bank a billion dollars and cannot pay it back-It's everyone's problem.
7
I keep hearing China steals *our* technology.
Who did they steal from. IBM? Thermos Fisher? Micron? Amazon? GM? Whatever.
These companies don’t do anything for me. They went into China with a full understanding what the deal was.
You go into a sketchy neighborhood, expect trouble.
No China Man stole from me.
17
@New World
American manufacturers who moved their operations to China will now suffer losses for their poor judgement.
3
China didn’t steal our jobs. It was the “Gordon Gekko” captains of industry who gave it all away. Every Conservative and Liberal politician went along since they got paid off.
We need a reset here and let the #2 economy in the world go its own way in pursuing its destiny. Not on our dime.
17
The White House's desire to rebalance the relationship with China is not without merit. Chinese theft of intellectual property is but one example.
But given that we're currently governed by a, er, moron, we're going about it the wrong way. The very idea of "decoupling" from China is absurd on its face. Does the White House think it's so easy to set up shop elsewhere? The Chinese have spent the better part of the last two decades investing in myriad countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America - and they hold quite a bit of leverage in those places (such moves began in the 00's, while we were primarily concerned with militarism). Using such places as pawns in our battle with the Chinese is not going to be nearly as easy as the White House thinks. Also, I think many in the administration seriously underestimate the degree to which we are now seen as an increasingly crazy and backwards-looking country - this matters a lot when countries choose whom to 'ally' with.
Ironically, we had been working on a very good treaty that would curb Chinese growth and influence - the TPP treaty. True to form, Trump, still stuck in the mindset of the 20th century when we had considerably more leverage than today - ditched it on his first month in office. As I said, governed by morons.
7
@Vin Yeah, it was going so well for the prior two decades. Why couldn't Trump just leave well enough alone, eh?
We'll just never know if the TPP treaty would have had the same success that Bill Clinton promised would follow China's WTO membership.
China is on a mission. Here's a tip for you and your kids: learn Mandarin.
4
@BDG I heard that same chant about NAFTA, learn Spanish.
Well, some years later Trump is not pleased with NAFTA but apparently Congress is as there has been no action on NAFTA 2.0, you know, the grand plan from Trump...
1
China's research and development is an all out war to acquire technology from corporations partnering with Chinese Companies, stealing intellectual properties from corporations, US govt. programs, or the old fashioned way by plantings spies in US Companies. China doesn't believe in fair trade, China believes in predatory trade that only benefits China. China's trade bait is billions of captive consumers in a closed market. Companies pay to play going up their proprietary advantages.
23
@Bayshore Progressive..I have been to CHINA and this is absolutely true...but you failed to mention that its respect for human rights is abysmal. It has little or no regard for clean air or water and is a major contributor to negative Climate Changes.
12
@Bayshore Progressive
All true, China sees the rest of the world as a resource to manipulate and reap, and it needs to STOP, but I don't see how one nation imposing tariffs will change that any more than 15 minutes of detention time will stop a school bully from stealing lunch money.
5
Based solely on comparing where the US and China were before China ‘opened up’ and American manufactuting moved there, I can say China got the better deal by far, vaulting by leaps and bounds from a mostly agrarian, poor country to technology sophisticated and so wealthy as to expand its reach across the globe and into outer space.
American may now have lots of things for cheap - much of which they don’t really need - but most had enough things before they were made in China, while still having American jobs and factories, a healthy middle class.
The caveats: would this only have delayed the inevitable economic changes if eventually American manufacturing is unable to compete with imports (regardless of origin) ?
China has paid a huge ecological price in the rush to industrialization, the full cost of which remains unknown. And in its move to capitalism and automation, it also left many behind.
Both sides have seen greater inequality, perhaps more so in China.
6
The Cold War was never over, we got fooled.
1
Why should the United States continue accepting immigrants from China when they are clearly the enemy? If anything, there needs to be a travel ban there.
9
@MapleMan And while we are at it...WHY do we accept Anchor Babies where neither parent is a U.S. Citizen...No one needs them here...We have enough legal immigrants here already...send them back...
3
@DP That is possibly what the Native Americans said about the Spanish, the English and the rest who exploited their lands.
4
We have a president who doesn't understand, and is not willing to understand, trade economics. That much is evident. We also have a president who cannot fathom the long-known association of trade and peace. We also have a president who literally does not really care about either except for gaining a 'win' to satiate his fragile ego. So unless his republican sycophants wake up, America might be walking into another war; a big one, on at least three fronts. It is, after all, what all of America's adversaries have long been waiting for: The great opportunity from a moment of abject stupidity born from greed.
Kill trade. Kill the peace. Even if the peace is delicate, it's still better than war. And a whole lot cheaper in blood and silver.
But Trump doesn't care because he doesn't care to understand. His mind is incapable of serious thought. So what's the excuse with all the raging sycophants?
4
@James Devlin <- 100% incorrect.
By standing firm on matters of trade and theft of intellectual property, he is the first to offer policies that former president in both parties have been unwilling to do.
Will this have serious negative impact on the US economy? Probably. Will failure to finally take action be more harmful in the long term? Definitely.
China grows stronger economically and militarily year after year, much of that on our dime. The longer we wait, the more impossible it will be to extract ourselves from their grip. Let us all play by the same fair rules.
This is one of the very few policies where Trump seems to have come down on the proper side.
2
Chinmerica ends - Chindia begins. USA has made a blunder in the last 30 years. End to American Consumerism is near. China will find customers in India and other parts of the world. US is not the only consumer market in the world. Far better places for a career than USA today. Every US citizen today owes over $120K to Chinese govt. Financial slavery is here. USA will succumb to China. Just a matter of time.
1
they can have NJ
1
No sympathy from to me for China, the world’s leading producer of Fentanyl and methamphetamine. Their current prosperity is gained on the backs of poor Americans.
20
We let them become rich in hoping China would be more like open society like that of USA, but no...Chinese remain and continue to be a communist country just like North Korea and Russia. The Communism must disappear from Earth!
12
@John Kim
And yet I'm sure you report in every morning to fascist working environment and think nothing of it.
The Chinese are right, "Chimerica" might come to an end. Bannon, the chief architect of Trump's nationalism, says it wants to break its back.
STEVE BANNON: “I think the goal in China is quite simply to break the back of this totalitarian mercantilist economic society!”
Frontline Bannon's interview in the documentary "Trump's Trade War."
3
From an environmental perspective, lets quit China and meat.
6
We should decouple from China, whether we can reach a trade deal or not, and start coupling with democratic countries that respect human rights. Asia is full of such countries.
14
I have not finished reading the article yet.
I am going to display my ignorance by asking this but, why is China allowed to do almost ALL the manufacturing that the U.S. needs?
Can we stop the stream of all the cheap and ugly "apparel" they have been dumping on us since 1980? People can tell from a mile away that someone is wearing something made in China.
Casual wear: It has ONE seam in it; that is, it is not tailored. And it is made of synthetics.
Women's business wear: They have mastered creation of the crepe weave. When you touch it, you find that it is not 100% wool crepe, but polyester!
How many women are shivering at the bus stop in the winter, dressed in layers of polyester?
WHERE is our clothing made of 100% wool, in various weaves; 100% cotton; and 100% linen ?
100% COTTON: I no longer see any T shirts made of 100% cotton! They all are blended with polyester, or modal. WHAT is modal? I don't want to know.
How can we buy proper clothing made in the U.S. ?
I am not buying another piece of clothing. I am going to use what I have that I got in the '90's.
4
What should we be doing differently? How about building a transatlantic alliance with Canada and our European partners to fight back against China's well documented economic abuses. Instead we have picked worthless fights with every major partner in Europe. Yesterday the British Foreign Secretary seemed to suggest the Europeans can no longer differentiate between US sudden desire for conflict in the Middle East and Iran's crazy mullahs (talk about a special relationship)!
Like everything else he has done the President has been right on some big issues, but sadly his execution and rhetoric is terrible. Who knows, hopefully at some point we will get to see the great deal maker actually make a deal.
3
thing is america runs on the short term, as soon as america feels any pain, politicians will fear losing their seats or lose their seats the next election and all policies will change again
while china has gone to the extent of mass murdering their own people to get to their end goal and are very good at manipulating/controlling their people, economy, etc...
china is very calculated in backstepping now as they know trump is already campaigning for re-election
7
@seetee You've nailed the crux of the problem. The Chinese communist regime can inflict much suffering on China to get to an end goal, whereas our government which is routinely sold to the highest bidder is subject to the smallest bit of pain.
2
Can the holier-than-thou China bashing here. All governments are corrupt. Ronald Reagan was happy to manipulate American currency when he thought it served the nation’s purpose. China has egregious faults, but mass murder on a regular basis isn’t one of them. I moved to China twelve years ago. Nothing would entice me to return to the USA. Watching on a daily basis the very definition of America wither on the vine is nauseating but not in the least bit surprising. America had a good run while it lasted, but now it’s over and no amount of blaming China for its woes will change that.
3
Good, it’s past time. The relationship has run its course, has plundered US industry, flooded our market with low-quality products and only served to support a vile, totalitarian government that does not have our best interests at heart (nor those of its own people, but that goes without saying). For those drawing comparisons to our current Executive Branch - do yourselves a favor, review the particulars of Tiananmen Square, the Cultural Revolution, and, for that matter, just about any period in Chinese history (including last week). Ask yourself: do you wish you were there?
11
@Jeff
I do wish I were there. Every day I wish my parents had not immigrated to this country where I am always second class. Whatever inequalities exist in China, it is not because of the color of my skin, nor because of the shape of my eyes. And for that, I love China.
2
@workerbee One word: California. You will be accepted and be in the majority in many towns and neighborhoods.
Sadly for China, they "got caught with their pants down" as the saying goes.
It's never a good time to reset the global economy, but in order to lead it, you have to change it to your advantage.
American consumers, select farmers and, primarily shareholders, will feel the pinch in the short and possible mid term, but in the long run, will benefit far more than they realize.
America is making a comeback.
Who would have thought it would be Trump to lead the charge?
Try not to cringe too hard.
6
@Ken Russell
Keep hope alive. America will change their tune as soon as that $10 shirt at wal mart is priced at $14 and you see the poor teacher in middle America working two jobs to feed her family. You can rest assured that WMT will not loose a penny during this nonsense.
2
@Henry
What food are they buying from China again?
Last I checked, pork and soybeans are at rock bottom prices.
Anyway, you miss the point.
The benefits come from better jobs here. As such, that $14 shirt you speak of will cost $9, and made domestically.
And maybe people won't need to shop at Walmart any more...
1
I hate Donald Trump and feel he is not the person we need in power to solve this. However, I think this goes beyond a simple trade imbalance. When China started to claim the South China Sea and other parts of the world as their’s to exploit, I think many in the world became concerned. I also think that it has been China’s trade imbalance with us that has funded the Chinese goal of endless economic expansion. Also, as long as China agrees to cover our debt and our budget-busting, insane, militarization, I think the US is operating at a disadvantage. Trump knows something needs to be done, but he and his advisors are out of their league. All China has to do to win this trade war is make it an obstacle to Trump’s reelection.
1
Foxconn, the contractor that makes Apple products in China, was keeping its workers imprisoned so Steve Jobs could get the workers available at his beck and call to make last minute changes to his 'jewels'. There was no safe exit in an emergency, either, as factory exits were locked shut. We are not fair to the Chinese if we treat them like slaves. The same applies no matter where we outsource our manufacturing. Factories have collapsed, explosions and fires have slaughtered. Ignoring the abuses or saying "That is their problem" is immoral.
5
Oh the shame of China and the rest of the world for not behaving the utmost morals of the US.
Our honest and open companies NEVER try to steal [ok, adapt] technology and knowledge from others.
Our government NEVER gives taxpayer dollars to support and place our corporations in a competitive position in the world ... well, except for a trillion in tax breaks and tens of billions fro farmers [who may have lost market share for ever].
Good news is that Trump supporters LOVE the ideas of letting companies pollute more and follow fewer safety procedures, suppress voting rights, treating women as ... property, continue to take away health care, pay people to teach creation to their kids in basement schools, claim that only THEIR bible is the ultimate truth, fight minimum wage increases, drop the number of refugees vetted for 18 months from about 100,000 to 30,00 [since they aren't quite "like" us], ....
3
Long before anger at the Chinese Communist Party gets out of hand, the Party will direct it the US. And with good cause. Why should China play by US rules, when their own system has brought such great success. The US still wants to dominate, but globalization has created a multi-centric world order. National competition based on jealousy and a yearning for the past will only lead to a more dangerous and poorer world.
5
@Jerry Harris yeah...that sounds pretty much what Hitler did by redirecting the crowds anger...Might work in the short term, but not for long.
China is in a precarious situation; an authoritarian regime masquerading as a capitalistic utopia naturally has to bend a few rules. A day of reckoning with America was always inevitable. We need to consume less drivel and China needs to become a democracy. That’s where we need to be as a planet. Will either of those things happen? Probably not if we listen to the people that claim to understand the negative impacts of trade with China but haven’t actually FELT those impacts.
If Trump goes “all in” on this and forces corporations to reconfigure supply chains to the benefit of Americans and our allies, he will be tough to beat in 2020. I’m not a fan of him but I’m really not a fan of being China’s doormat for the next 100 years.
10
When I inspect what is on our store shelves and realize how little says Made in USA and how much says Made in China, I cannot but think that the US has made itself into an economic vassal of China. We did it to ourselves! I can remember when this was not so and most of what was there said Made in USA.
8
Lower economic growth will be actually good for the climate.
10
There is a reason the USA area code is 001. The reason why the USA mostly uses .com and every other country uses .fr/.ru/.cn or .ca.
Invent and change! That’s where wealth is created.
We are squabbling with China over jobs that are very manual. Unless Americans will work for $8 per hour, those jobs would go unfulfilled or staffed by undocumented immigrants. We know how we feel about that. Trying to bring coal back?!?
A lot of those jobs will transfer to Mexico, Indonesia or will be automated. In a word, beating up China WILL NOT lead to a significant increase in USA jobs in Trump supporting states.
America has a distinct competitive advantage in agriculture that we should be expanding and not leaving as the sacrificial lamb. Make it cheaper and more efficient to get crops and livestock to port. Infrastructure.
America should be 50 to 100 years ahead of the rest of the world in clean energy, medical equipment, pharma, IT, advanced transportation, recycling and space.
Instead we’ve had 40 years of culture war nonsense and have spent hundreds of billions on wars with questionable outcomes. Now we are saddled with the most incompetent leadership in generations.
America can either lead and take the harder path of innovation or copy China’s fast follower model.
49
Actually China stops all large II competitive companies from doing business. Google and Amazon for example are restricted. It also keeps out legal and audit companies. Manufactoring compares are required to disclose all intellectual capital to Chinese to do business. China does not enforce intellectual property rights..., so the areas that US innovation could create trade balance are barred from China. So yes, discussing this very unequal trade relationship is long long overdue.
5
You are right, Pushing back on Intellectual Property and software licensing theft was well overdue. As are the limits placed on US and other country e-commerce platforms. Notice, however, that our CEOs chose to forgo those risks anyway.
But cleaning up those issues will not lead to American job growth in Trump states. Which is what I believe this is all about.
The best way to take on China is through alliances with like minded trade partners who collectively could have the power to freeze out China if it chose not to cooperate.
Unfortunately, in my opinion, our current leadership is seeking to “copy” the Chinese economic model as a way to bring lower skill jobs and keep the viability of Trump supporting conservative states and counties
3
@Practical Thoughts
The theft of IP will not suddenly stop. But decoupling with tariffs will make it less harmful.
1
The easiest way for China and the USA to co-exist is for China to stop stealing US intellectual property, trade fairly, and start working on cutting back your pollution.
Then, we can economically "co-exist".
Until then, struggle.
14
I’ve always felt the big issue with China was IP theft and it’s blockage of US e-commerce and social media platforms. That was, and is, the area where China has picked America’s pocket.
Chasing manual jobs is a distraction.
2
@don
The Chinese have taken the lead in phasing out coal. They are heavily invested in solar panels, much more so than the US.
Yet, we have a president who loves to sing the praises of coal and oil. He is cutting back on emissions standards and many other environmentally protective policies. He has abandoned the Paris Accord. He is a self-proclaimed climate denier.
So, who do you propose should take the lead on anything?
2
@don
Pollution? The US is the biggest polluter per capita in the world. You're part of the problem Don.
Insightful article! I also believe that the fundamental problem comes from the very different systems of rules which America and China are unable to agree upon, and that these rules aren't really about democracy and authoritarianism, as is often characterized in the media, but rather about the developing and developed worlds.
The question for us is, what do you do when a developing country (in this case a country with the potential to surpass yourself) wants to achieve technological independence, and asks to purchase your key intellectual property? And if you refuse to sell, as any rational being would, what is the recourse if they try to "steal" in their quest to develop it on their own?
I think that the only non-violent way to prevent our technology from leaving our borders may be to decouple, and if that's the only way we can maintain our leadership, then so be it.
Morally, it leaves a slightly bitter taste in the mouth, but it is the rational thing to do.
11
@Mark
I absolutely agree! China already has the majority of 5G patents. It will absolutely continue to dominate increasing fields in the future. Decouple now, so that the US will not have a chance to play catch up in the future.
1
Academic notions about free trade work well in economic models but not so much in the real world in 2019. In exchange for cheap and shoddy goods, often based on brazenly stolen IP and built by workers driven to suicide, the US has given up jobs and part of its economic independence. Trump is actually right in this case.
24
I was in Germany last year, having never been there before, I wanted to go to the nearest Germany version of 'Home Depot'. I spent a few hours working through all of the product categories to identify the manufacturing source. I was shocked...95 percent of what I saw was either made in Germany or the EU...very very little from China. Even cheap trowels were made in Germany. Our corporate leaders made a greed based decision decades ago to move our trades, machinery and know how, to far off lands which did not embrace our 'western' civilizations sense of fair trade and intellectual property protections. The Germans were smarter. We need to reclaim our 'right' to make things on our own continent and by doing so protecting the future. Over decades, corporate elites made a bundle of easy money by off shoring and by doing so sold out our creative collective souls.
97
Germany, along with Japan, if very proficient in machine tools and automation tech.
I would guess that their mass consumer products are built in highly automated factories or imported from Eastern Europe / North Africa.
7
@Jonathan
I went to IKEA with my wife. I was surprised to see the affordability and not made in China products they sold. Quality was average to good.
9
@Jonathan The Germans are one of a few countries that runs a trade surplus with China. It did not happen by accident. They manufacture quality products. For example, the German brand Fissler (cookware) is manufactured both in German and China. The Chinese prefer the much more expensive made in Germany version because they perceive it to be higher quality. Is there much in this country that we can say the same?
9
This is an issue on which many people agree - a rare point of consensus in partisan times. Obama's pivot to Asia and the Narcissist's tariffs are aimed at the same problem. Two points to note however: if you believe the Chinese economy will now crash, think again. Growth will slow but the central government will pour resources into cultivating new export markets in Africa, Asia, Latin America etc. Second, who do you think state run media will blame for the end of Chimerica? Not the Party and not the Chinese government. Be prepared to be lectured by your taxi driver next time you go to Beijing. The trade impasse will be described as jealousy over China's rise, and an attempt to block that rise.
10
@Cal Prof
The problem started way before Obama. However, I knew we were in trouble when Geithener and Brenanke showed up to do our bidding in Bejing—not really appropriate. It's almost enough to make one suspecvt some sort of Globalist, New World Order conspiracy involving the Federal Reserve Bank is in the works.
3
China gets advantages from its membership in the WTO, but does not abide by its principles. Its government subsidizes its industries and it steals intellectual property through both contractual and cyber-sleuthing. It needs to change, Trump has neither the understanding, or the faith in those who do, to accomplish the needed changes. We need enforcement mechanisms. BUT, with China holding so much of our Treasury notes, they can readily fight back in ways that will be devastating. Trump's biggest failure is his inability to see his inability. He BELIEVES he knows how to handle this. Even in his business practices, he has been a failure. In this realm he has no clue.
14
I remember back in the 80s and 90s when I could boycott Chinese made goods because of their past and ongoing genocidal behaviour towards Tibetans. There was usually a somewhat more expensive US or German made version available, almost always of higher quality and durability.
After China was allowed to join the WTO, and after Apple and its products became critical to my economic survival, I found I could not continue boycotting Communist Chinese made goods. This made me very sad. I felt like I was being forced to purchase goods that were blood drenched and would lead to an erosion of the quality of life in the United States.
Donald Trump is anathema to me, yet, I would love it if I could de-couple my life from the Totalitarian police state of Communist China. Are you listening Apple? ...with your profits, there is really no excuse for your collusion with Communist China. There is no demarcation line at which their Police State ends, and honest competition begins.
22
You and Trump are on the same page in this case. Good for you for acknowledging it...
7
@JAC
Nobody is all wrong.
1
The US has been China's biggest friend, except for the interregnum of most of Mao's rule, since the creation of the US.
China has adopted an economic model based on mercantilism and because of its political political system is incapable on "non-steady state" growth. For China to keep up technologically with the world, she has to steal technology from everyone else.
I am not a big Trump fan, but I support the President on this.
21
Amazed at how some commenters think China is some sort of utopia. Did you ever hear of human rights? China has never lead the charge as far as that goes.
Most American companies could care less how their product gets made but what is the profit margin. In fact more and more Americans could care less as well which is telling.
It is hard to buy anything these days that isn't made somewhere that human rights are at the bottom of priorities.
23
@Hal
Keep in mind... US companies during the industrial expansion age created the ground rules and process for human rights violations against workers on a systemic level. They still do today... as long as they can get republican politicians to roll back labor and safety protections and pass union breaking legislation.
3
@Hal - American yap about human rights is a canard, if you are Black you have the right to be shot for reaching for your wallet. Human rights human shmites how about decent living? People in France have 5 weeks paid vacation a year and a 35 hr work week, which if we had would make Americans a lot happier than the malarkey about how free we supposedly are.
3
@Chuck If you must compare, compare today's status quo to today's (international consensus) human rights standards, not yesterday's to today's. These false equivalence whataboutism arguments are just repetitive scripts from keyboard warriors meant to impress whom? I can't imagine.
2
China manufacturers should not be allowed to sell directly to US consumers on Amazon. We are done selling out our people for cheap products.
Hopefully, we can reach an agreement that all can survive and thrive with. China and the US are stronger as frenemies then just plain old enemies.
Make the deal!
11
@Me
First.. it's not Chinese manufacturers selling through Amazon, it's small business entreprenuers and middlemen. Manufacturers sell through Alibaba.
Here's a thought... how about not buying the products you are objecting to on Amazon. That would be the free market approach.
Besides.... a lot of products sourced from China through Amazon are not big sellers on Amazon. Why? Because in order to keep costs down.. they ship direct from China upon order.. and if you talk with most Amazon customers... they are not really interested in buying from 3rd party sellers located in foreign countries.
By they way... Indian merchants sell much more on Amazon then Chinese merchants.
3
The last thing a responsible leader would do is attempt to destabilize the economy of 1 billion people. The best strategy is gradual and incremental gains, not an ill-considered preemptive strike. The Israelis demonstrate, perfectly, how to crush opposition (okay, an entire people...) without appearing to do so.
2
It was a temporary "alliance" with a communist dictatorship that is now resurgent economically and militarily. It was done to balance against the USSR and to manage its rise peacefully. We want it to follow the rule of law and a dictatorship cannot. Lament nothing.
We have deeply opposing world views and geopolitical goals. Only a statesman can avert a true showdown and Trump is many things, bombastic, ignorant, incurious, petulant, a liar, a bore, a racist, a bankrupt, and a two timer of women, but he is no statesman.
15
This Chimerica relation was only benefiting China! Now that China is the second largest economy it's time for them to share the benefits with America. No more piggyback. We need a trade that benefit all !
10
The rhetoric is destructive and it is basically a war between the elites but the common people will endure the suffering. Ordinary Americans can’t feel or relate to the rhetoric passed down from the elites that China is killing the U.S, but due to so much pump and drum it becomes a “problem”. Average Americans wouldn’t care about bootleg dvd in China or “intellectual/semi obsolete properties being stolen” or the “bribes/tariff” being imposed at China’s port because they can’t see the extra profit would make it to their wallet. On the other side, average Chinese are just more worry about whether or not they get overtime from American companies so they can have a little more food on their table. They wouldn’t care whether an Armani suite, Rolex watches, etc. should cost 10k or 2k due to unfair/fair trade practice. Wake up people, both sides are fully equipped with heavy propaganda and neither side is a saint.
2
@Binh
The American consumer has already they don't care about the source of their products as long as they can get the lowest price possible.
I have heard it said repeatedly by shoppers, that they will continue to shop at Walmart even though the store has a terrible reputation on labor.
We just love a bargain.
1
"Fascism" (definition adapted from Wikipedia): A form of authoritarian ultranationalism characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition, and strong regimentation of society and of the economy, viewing political violence, war and imperialism as means that can achieve national rejuvenation.
Trading with China only serves to support Xi Jinping's brand of Chinese fascism, complete with concentration camps, the torture and murder of dissidents, and expansionist militarism. We cannot remove Mr. Xi, but we can express our solidarity with the Chinese people, and protect our own long-term interests, by refusing any cooperation that might strengthen him.
13
@John Corey
"Fascism" (definition adapted from Wikipedia): A form of authoritarian ultranationalism characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition, and strong regimentation of society and of the economy, viewing political violence, war and imperialism as means that can achieve national rejuvenation."
Sounds a lot like the US these days, under Trump.
By the way... you used the wrong word in the wrong way. The word you are seeking is "totalitarianism". Fascism is at the opposite political extreme from Communism.
@Chuck
Communism has morphed into fascism in China:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/21/world/asia/china-marxist-students.html
2
China and America are both right. China has paid slave and prison labor to lower the prices of their goods to a level America cannot compete. And America, for corporate/political reasons has acquiesced and made it easy for China to sell to us in this manner without rules.
The solution, however, is not willy nilly tariffs. The solution is a simple application of stringent regulations of imports which do not meet the standards of American industry including labor costs. Any country, including China should not simply dump products into our economy that don't meet our standards.
Opf course none of this will happen so no one should hold his breath. We long ago ceased to be a democracy. We are now a corporatocracy.
Console yourself that, at least, while China gives us actual things, we give them increasingly worthless bits of green paper.
6
@Tom
"The solution is a simple application of stringent regulations of imports which do not meet the standards of American industry including labor costs"
What??
American industry has ZERO respect for labor costs... and in fact would love the Chinese model of regulation free labor use. It is one reason why many US companies have completely outsourced their supply chains to China, India, and a handful of other nations.
2
@Tom The heads of most US corporations don't care where it's made only about the bonus they get. The Chinese record on respecting trade deals and intellectual property is atrocious. While there is probably a better way to do this if both sides care to address it in a different fashion l highly doubt either one could be trusted to do it. The destruction of the middle class in this country and the failure of China to create one are ultimately immoral.
2
I can’t stand Trump but on this issue he’s right.
We need to play hard ball with them.
And don’t trust the Russians on anything.
11
China has been on this Earth centuries long before USA became a nation. The former has endured poverty and oppression from Western Civilization. China can eat a tree bark. USA can not.
2
And what about CHINAMERICA? The new country that is destroying our planet and our climate?
6
The corporate greed for profits have destroyed the US economy by exporting jobs to China. The trade deficit has financed China's military rise to superpower, while crushing American worker wages. Trump is the first President to stand up for the American worker and our economic future. How liberals can disagree with that is beyond comprehension.
6
@Jon Galt
I don't think it's the liberals per se, but rather those with TDS. Had Obama decided to "stand up to China," as you put it, many of them would likely have been on board. They would have viewed a trade war as the inevitable cost of making things right.
But it's Trump (whom I also despise, but I'm not mentally deranged about it), so naturally anything he does is wrong by definition. It's hard to see a way forward from here.
4
I'm a liberal and I don't disagree with that! I think you are so used to bashing those on the left that you didn't notice that it's the right wingers that are most upset...at least the ones that aren't afraid of speaking out against the Trump admin. Now let's just see if he has the guts (and attention span) to follow through!
1
@Jon Galt
Always the same. "Trump is the first ..."
I heard Mr. Trump state that we are in a very good position to "win" this trade war he has started with China. Sadly, in winning, the animosity he creates with that great Asian power, may drag us right back to the "real" war positioning that neutralized China as an enemy force for some many decades. Without strong trade ties, China has nothing to lose by aligning with Russia, Iran, North Korea, and every other enemy we have in the world. Trade has normalized our relationship. A trade war, one that brings great harm to the Chinese leadership, or threatens to bring great harm to their economy will only back them into a corner. We need better leadership to resolve this before we end up in a shooting war.
4
@Patrick Stevens - The Chinese communist backed themselves into this corner...Its their issue not ours...
1
As part of the decoupling, we should make sure our NATO allies follow along. We'll probably have to dust off some of the old rules we had in place during the Cold War. We'll also have to make it crystal clear to the business community if they try to interfere with this process for their own selfish reasons, they will personally be tried for treason.
4
If China wants to be friends with America, they need to liberalize their political system and adopt Western values of freedom and democracy. They also need to stop stealing technology and subsidizing domestic companies to compete with America. Until they do that, they are competitors and a threat, and should be treated as such.
10
U.S. thinks in the short time. Chinese think in the long time.
In the short time, maybe all finished reasonable well.
The serious problem is in the long term. China is working today to be the No.1 in 2025.
1
@Trassens CHINESE or CHINA will NEVER EVER MAKE IT - because the rest of the world will not share or stop sharing their technologies as they have done in the past. The communist base their growth on how much IP they can steal - a totalitarian system has no room for independent or creative thinking...which is view as a threat to their communist model.
1
We are the greatest threat to world peace since 1945 and have failed miserably in world leadership and as the “world’s policeman”. We need to be replaced. Truly we are a failed state.
China will replace us, hopefully soon. We are no longer a democracy. Corporations rule.
.
7
Go to bit.ly/EPI-study
Scroll to the 2nd graph.
From 1945 to 1972 GNP grew about 100% and the median (everybody’s) wage in lockstep with it. Since 1972 the GNP has gone up another 150% but the median wage has remained flat. The former was the New Deal/Demand Side economics; the latter is Supply Side economics.
During the former there were no investment bubbles, only minor recessions. During the latter we’ve had plenty of investment bubbles and deep recessions.
During the former the country split the atom & won WWII, rebuilt Europe, saved South Korea, educated returning soldiers, then their children, created the security of NATO, built the Interstate Highway system, created the modern domestic jet transport, built the tallest buildings in the world, fought the hottest spots of the Cold War and landed a man on the moon. By 1972 roughly 1 billion people globally, and most of the U.S. lived a middle class existence. If America was ever great it was between 1945 and 1972. By the way we haven’t been back to the moon since 1972.
If the former was fair, the latter is unfair. If the former was good then the latter was bad.
The latter has given us 47 years of flat median wage. Since some workers wages have gone up (health/tech) then the broad majority have had 47 years of declining expectations, giving us an opioid crisis, protofascism & Trump.
Helping the Chinese has done little to nothing for the American worker. At this point the only thing that matters is their well being.
6
Automation is already a much bigger challenge than out-sourcing. China's system has lifted millions of their people out of poverty and given us slavery without the guilty conscience. They are not going to change their system for our benefit. Why don't we put our own house in order and fix our Lobbyocracy? We need to improve our healthcare, education, infrastructure, ameliorate some of the damage from climate change, have government work with private enterprise on the next big thing, etc. to compete globally.
Sadly, it's much easier to blame China while doing nothing.
4
"China and the U.S. don't have to have strained relations." So very true. But Trump doesn't have to strain relations with more than half the country, and yet he does. It seems to be all the man can do. I'm wondering when we're ever going to learn that isolationism and disrespect for foreign cultures has only ever led to wars and mass poverty? It seems never.
3
Whatever. We have a president.
If you hate this result, change your behavior.
But we have a president. He's doing things I think needed to be done. It doesn't make me love him, but I'll accept this.
12
@DudeNumber42 A President who is a wanna-be Dictator. His refusal to support and uphold the Constitution makes him a traitor. The checks and balances of the Constitution are essential to the maintenance of our Democracy. He is ignoring them.
1
We helped China rise ecomically, and opened their borders by welcoming immigration here... And now they are taking that wealth and trying to strong-arm the rest of Asia with an ever-growing military presence that we foolishly helped finance.
I dont like Trump, but I do like standing up for American workers, and stopping the easy influx of Cinese products here, unless they are buying our products equally.
We were naive that China would not turn against us.
24
@Mik
The Amazing thing is that American Capitalist would rather give American workers the shiv then be opposed to “communism” in China & fell overthemselves to ship jobs/factories to China to undermine American workers & help prop up a Chinese Communist Dictatorship.
See EPI study on wages @: bit.ly/EPI-study
Scroll down to the 2nd graph & you’ll see that from 1945 to 1972 GNP went up about 100% & the median (everone’s) wages in lockstep with it. Since 1972 GNP has gone up another 150% but wages have remained flat.
This is not sustainable trend w/out complicity from elites in both parties. 1972 represents the destruction of the American social contract.
Imagine the uproar if things were the reverse?
Should that Chinese Communist Dictatorship ever come to threaten the property rights (wealth) of American Capitalist, you can assume that the American worker will be expected to fight and die to protect those property rights.
I don’t like Trump but I do cherish the American worker. I’m sure that Trump is engaged in theater as an effort to expand his base among American workers. But this is what happens when the party that is supposed to represent workers, the Democrats, abandons that job and allows for 47+ years of flat wages. So far its gotten us an opioid crisis, protofascism & trump and all the elites can say is that they are shocked.
How does Joe, Liz or Bernie get the worker vote after Trump stands up to the Chinese? No one’s done anything on their behalf in 50 years.
6
@Mik
I think Chinese immigration benefited America much more than China...btw aren't you or your folks immigrants too? So who's "we"...
1
It's shocking to me that they had a word for this.
It's a relationship where the Chinese absorb American wealth, intellectual capital, and jobs and America lose and the Chinese people (which is really shocking) think of it as some kind of symbiosis.
How did our government allow this to happen for so long?
9
@Curtis Sumpter
Two words: Tiananmen Square student protests. That scared the Chinese oligarchs and party. That incident showed that the Chinese government that if they did not make changes, they would have a billion people in revolt. They adopted capitalism with a communist face. They played capitalist countries at their game. They even absorbed manufacturing, leaving countries, like the US, dependent on China for manufacturing. US closed plants and shifted jobs off shore.
Enter Xi, who is a solid Maoist and wants to return China to Mao's path. Since taking power, that is exactly what he has been doing. Trump, by starting a trade, has put Xi in a tough position. HE has not consolidated true autocracy yet, and thus, could be overseeing a failing economy. And, that economy has millions of wealthy and middle class people, who do not want to return to Mao's style of communism.
If things truly fall apart, economic wise, Xi may have to put down a revolution. It is no small wonder why China has accelerated its Surveillance initiative. It is a race between gaining absolute control over the masses, before the masses can organize and try to overthrow the state.
Let's face it if you gained wealth and property, you are not going to be willing to forfeit it to the state.
7
Xi wanted to be the new Mao, so if the masses start getting antsy he will do what Mao did; force people to work on farms and vanish. Or, do what he is doing in northwest China, re-educate the entire region. Chinese good times were because of American demand fro Chinese goods. Now that Trump has pretty much eliminated Chinese price advantage, US manufacturers have to find a new place to get their goods made with cheap labor.
In the US, it is possible the affects from tariffs, on China, will be short lived. US consumers will get their cheap prices. In China, however, the government will tighten its grip when their economy tanks. The party will declare capitalism a failure and may return to the old days of planned economy and five year plans.
The question is, how will the Chinese middle class react when they are forced back to the policies of Mao? Xi longs fro the days of Mao, like Putin longs fro the days of Brezhnev.
6
The desire for cheap goods means you import them from countries that are subject to less regulation. The price you pay is lost jobs. Decoupling is reversing the process.
We have gotten used to the China price for many goods. When you go to Walmart or Costco and get a table or sofa for $200 instead of $350 it mean the US furniture industry is decimated. Americans have to ask themselves if the price for cheap goods is worth the loss of good jobs. The rest of the world practices managed trade. We do so too, but only in the agricultural sector.
48
@albert - Sadly, we seem to have answered that question some time ago.
5
Those cheap products will either be manufactured by robots or by low cost labor in China, Mexico, Indonesia or maybe Nigeria. Why shouldn’t other countries use their comparative advantage.
The real question is why hasn’t America kept innovating. Why do we slow down progress and cling to “protecting” old industries like coal, oil and the combustion engine?
America should be 50 to 100 years ahead of everyone in clean energy, alternative propulsion, recycling, and high tech medical.
But nope, still clinging to the 1950’s and the ease of Leave it to Beaver. Squabbling with China on a bunch of monotonous jobs people won’t do. Like farming.
Go seize the 2050’s instead. Tesla makes cars in San Francisco. Not necessarily the lowest cost place to do business.
4
@DR Funny. I don't remember being asked.
1
There are things people need to understand about China. They are communists, they censor their people and media, they manipulate their currency at the expense of the
US, they have their sights on controlling and monitoring global telecommunications and 5G, they are in full mode in digitally documenting and monitoring their entire population.
If the Chinese government wanted to continue to grow their economy and their place in the world, they would make concession to Trump to level the playing field. They won't, and they, not the US will pay the price. China needs us more than we need them...
Your won't hear any democrats running for president acknowledging any of this....
37
@JAC
Do you think we are any different?
@Rusty Shackleford
Even if you are right, Your "We" is "US" so it is completely sane and appropriate to side with one's own. If not us then who?
I'd rather it is us.
2
The trade impasse boils down to China not willing to change its world plan. Namely subsidies to produce goods for export to dominate the manufacturing in the world. It achieves this by low wages, stealing intellectual property and subsidies to both state and private industry in the form of below market loans and direct state investment in industry. Although it wants to be part of the WTO it has no intention of minding the rules that constrain its long term plan. The Boing/Airbus subsidy fight is such peanuts by comparison. If you want to call the present situation a trade war you miss the fact that’s it’s been going on for years with the US not responding. We’ve lost half out middle class high paying manufacturing jobs to automation but the other half to offshoring. Can we talk about the wealth separation without stopping or at least slowing the loss of our manufacturing base? China has a steel surplus that they dump on the world while polluting their rivers and air. We can have bilateral trade with Canada and the EU who have ballpark wages, environmental rules and human rights. Can we with a country without those same things?
18
Such an interesting dilemma. Suppose communist China (not an insult, they are proud communists over there) surpasses the USA and establishes herself as número uno economic power of the world. Will the United States at that critical point continue to import avalanches of goods from them or try something else? The Nixon approach seems to have backfired, however China will never be able to reign supreme. Can you imagine all the western world quietly feeding that economy? One final thought: China has less than 10 Nobel prizes and its universities do not rank very high. Without cultural power, there cannot be economic power. Economy is a part of culture.
4
@sebastian Look at the economic progress of China, sir. That set of facts directly destroys your argument. China is heading to economic hegemony even without tony universities, the Ivy League, etc.
4
@Joren Maksho Economic power is one part of only one part of true hegemony, however. China will be rich, but without allies and culturally isolated. Maybe it won't care, but it will not be truly great until it gives the CPC the heave-ho.
3
@Joren Maksho
China's economic progress is a function of its ability and willingness to subvert human rights, the rule of law, as well as basic economic fundamentals. They own the police, the printing press, and the narrative inside China. Soon, they will own Hong Kong's autonomy as well. Locate yourself accordingly...
3
The top three billionaire's assets in this country is equal to the bottom half of the population's asset. Is it the low cost of labor in China contribute to this phenomenon ? The CEO or president's compensation of many corporations is over 300 times more than their average workers. In Walmart, over 90% of the products are from China. The average workers in the company are often earned a non-livable wage or do not have health care coverage. And yet the founder/owners are all billionaire.
The widening gap of income inequality and/or lack of employment opportunity create social tension. This is partially attributed to the failure of so called " Trickle down economic ". Politicians are often responsive to the top 1% ruling class. What better way to solve this social issue is pointing some where else or find a scapegoat, CHINA ?
15
@SK
The Walmarts and CEOs of America used China as their bargaining tool to destroy unions. Labor has a competitive chance only when the labor market is within their control and when the political system ensures a fair chance for union representation. China, however, magnified the outsourcing that destroyed union power in America. So China is a willing accomplice rather than a scapegoat.
8
I hope the press can investigate whether Trump and family are profiting off of these Trump-manipulated ups and downs of the stock market...another reason why we need to see his tax returns.
8
I fully support decoupling. This way, when China wins, they can say - we did it without the US's help. Hah.
2
@workerbee Odd...I fully support decoupling because Chinese communist will lose because they could no longer can steal the technologies they relied on to enslave people or compete against the world. Hah !
I'm glad I live in NZ and aren't worried as NZ was the first nation in the world to have a free trade deal with China. We're streets ahead of the USA when it comes to negotiating skills. :)))
8
@CK We can always trade-you take Trump and we take your PM.
I think we would get the better of the deal.
1
After trade war comes war war. We can have Chinese parachutists in your backyard sooner than you think.
1
Strangely we all tend to forget that China is the biggest holder of US Treasury bonds. If they unload at loss we get trumped (Bankrupt).
We have been buying goods from China on a credit card and they can call our bluff anytime they want to hurt us.
8
@Dan
No. They are not. I don't know why everyone says that when they could easily look it up and speak factually. Foreign holders of our debt make up 30% of the national debt. China has ~1/6th of that, so they own about 5% of the debt. Yes, they are the largest foreign holder of our debt, but that's not saying much.
7
"Strangely we all tend to forget that China is the biggest holder of US Treasury bonds.”
I would respectfully suggest that you look up facts instead of making up facts.
Moreover, China is very unlikely to rapidly unload its U.S. securities for a number of reasons, not least of which is a lack of investments with similar returns/risk.
4
By all means, let's do what's best for the Chinese worker. That's what's most important..
6
Let's turn that tables.
How would Trump and the US react to Chinese demands hat the Import-Export bank be shut down and the US stops subsidizing Boeing other companies that use the Bank ???
They would scream about a foreign power telling how to act.
We have no right to ask China to change their systems !!
2
This is really quite simple, actually. When all the old whitemen in the U.S. get off their capitalist lies and when all the old communist men in China get off their lies, too, it will be all over. Having a democracy depends on education and not lying just to sell. Enough already! Using up the planet demands a level playing field. Lies, from either side, don't make it.
5
If a job requires a lot of manual labor input, that job will shift from China to another country such as Mexico, Vietnam, Indonesia or Thailand. In fact, Mexico stands to be the big winner as there would be a reduction in logistics costs.
Also, the USA simply does not have a deep bench of toolmaking talent. The trades here are also weak. It’s not clear America would ever invest in the education and other infrastructure necessary to build a large scale electronics mfg base. You don’t build that overnight.
Finally, America’s future is in developing high tech 21st century products and services where labor costs are not the highest cost input.
Tesla makes CARS in Silicon Valley. New food companies focused on marketing and selling vegetable protein sources and meat grown from cells. Tons of innovations are needed to lower the cost of medicine (better equipment, drugs and human capital). Tons of opportunity to modernize and clean up the power generation and distribution. Better planes, trains and automobiles. The space economy. Clean energy, Newer and lighter materials. Making recycling easier and more cost effective. Not to mention the basic stuff like building homes, electricians, teachers, accountants etc.....
Grow up America. Fix the education. Fix the culture, give the poorer regions/cities the resources to prepare their children and prepare for 21st/22nd century economy.
Stop with making coal great again.
9
Well said! Couldn’t agree more.
1
I’m a little confused. Someone please explain it to me. Trump complains that China has the advantage in trade. But almost everything I see that is made in China has an American name brand on the label, from underwear to electronics. All American companies. I don’t understand why Trump has a beef with China when his own brand is made in China
21
Maybe if China did anything they said they would do when they got into the WTO and did not steal everything not nailed down I would not have to listen to them cry today. This "conflict" should have taken place 20 years ago. We can keep negotiating with them until the cows come home and all they will do is string us along and never agree to anything meaningful.
9
Maybe some good will come of this? What has the US collectively lost in sending so much of their production to China…to closing-up factories in the US…to relinquishing oversight of quality, workplace conditions, etc., to a nation such as China? Americans have become too focused on ‘quantity’…on having ‘stuff’…versus on quality. Bring production back to the US, and sure, while labor costs, ergo prices, will go up, with that will be better quality, and perhaps Americans being more judicious in what they buy, and how much they buy. This in turn will benefit the planet as a whole. In addition
9
The macro equation actually is as follows:
In the West a major economic slowdown (recession) will alter the political map. In China, it will cause a revolution. Hopefully it will go our way
2
“It doesn’t have to be mutually destructive.”
It didn't have to be anything at all. In retrospect, a capitalist country's interest in a communist country raises a lot of conspiracy questions. Not just geopolitical considerations either. There is more to this than meets the eye. Has to. America is the land of milk of honey.
It never needed China.
And yet, it started exporting American jobs to China for cheap labour. I don't think so. If there's anything the 2008 financial meltdown has shown us, it's that global capitalism is manipulated and controlled.
10
Who would look at the world today and decide to become enemies with China?
Who benefits by telling the world China is a nefarious, crooked force? Is it China who decided American multinationals should hire 10 times as many people there as in the USA?
Trump is destroying relationships that take years to build.
His grasp of economics is a series of lies and misconceptions he cannot admit. He is a wrecking crew of 1.
19
No! Both countries did not benefit! That is a false and misleading statement!
Here's what really happened; China, opened to a relationship by Richard Nixon and members of his administration who believed, wrongly that China could be democratized as the communist country opened its markets to American goods, industry and technology. Past American administrations truly believe there would be a plethora of new American jobs as China demanded American goods.
China, refusing to move away from the Communist Party hegemony of power refused to open it's markets and limited imports from the U.S. At the same time China provided cheap labor and provided cheap capital to entrepreneurs and state industries as they expanded and modernized their own capacity for manufacturing.
American governments insisted that there would be more and better jobs as labor intensive industries moved to China. That didn't happen. Instead millions of Americans were laid off as industry was gutted. As an example China now makes 70% of all footwear sold in the U.S. The other 30% is also made outside the U.S. There is no shoe industry in the U.S. and the same thing happened to dozens of other core industries. Steel, machine tools, computers, TVs, cables, apparel, furniture and more were gobbled up.
We can't exist as a nation without jobs, industry and research and development of new jobs and technology. This is what is at stake; America's future.
The breakup is not all bad. Jobs and industry must return.
70
@Jay you are correct you can not have an healthy economy based on 71% service jobs and less than 9% manufacturing. We all can not sell each other insurance and cut each others hair.
14
@Jay. American companies gutted their own companies and laid off their workers. It was intentional and strategic.
3
@Ellen Finan
It was legal, convenient and profitable, and helped avoided taxes i.e. payroll, withholding, state, local, Social Security, Medicare and others, and that is why it happened. Because we stupidly allowed it to happen.
6
The picture says it all. Very sad!
Trump and his daughter have ( she stll is) played an important role in "Chimerica". Interesting that no one is calling out Trump for the years where he profited from his Chinese association.
14
Allowing a president to initiate and remove sanctions at will is total lunacy.
13
The Trump administration has revealed that our major problem is the executive branch facing far to much power. It also explains our bipolar major mood swings that cause massive confusion in the world.
The major flaw in our society is the role of president. It’s so obviously a lead in to authoritarianism in so many levels.
4
China sees the big picture. This country starts rehashing the same garbage over and over and over every 4 years.
5
China shouldn't take it personally, this fall out with Trump's America. Nor should she take her frustrations with Trump's America out on Canada, a country that's had it up to the Arctic Circle with Trump.
8
This is an article about how there are many reasonable potential interlocutors in China. In this light it's discouraging to read many of these reader responses, which fail to transcend a narrow pro-home country bias. Yes, President Trump has correctly identified China as a defector from the rules of a liberal trade regime. So did President Obama, so there's nothing to praise there. The difference lies with the response of the two adminsitrations. Obama sought to further enmesh China in a liberal trade regime through engagement. President Trump, true to his nature, has decided on confrontation. There is simply no justification for this approach- the risks of severe, unintended consequences are too great. In short, it's stupid, and that's where the criticism lies.
Second, the repeated use of words like "cheating" and "stealing" demonize China. Such rhetoric is useful in drumming up support for a trade war. But if we care about the future of our children, we would do much better to understand Chinese motives without preconceiving them as illegitimate. We could start by remembering that by "cheating" and "stealing" they have lifted hundreds of millions of human beings from the most abject poverty. Rather than slug it out with them, perhaps we should have manage Chinese incentives through engagement, a la TPC. That may have been a win-win approach. Probably too late though.
14
@Fremont You rang the bell that time, Fremont. You don't push large, powerful countries (or anyone for that matter) in a corner where they either surrender totally or lash out. (I seem to remember US diplomacy vis-a-vis Imperial Japan. That did not end well.) Our president is an immature person who sees every problem personally as a win-lose situation--for him. We're all in for a lot of trouble.
This trade war is an unforced error, driven maybe as much by Trumpists who want to upstage the Democrats as any antipathy to China. That the GOP has signed on to policies at odds with its business and corporate base is just an indication of how far down the rabbit hole of partisan rancor Trump has taken the party he took over.
It took generations for the U.S. to establish as the ultimate reliable trading partner with the world's premier currency. With Trump, that can go in an eye-blink. That can't happen without a complicit Senate. Why is it happening? Who knows, since everybody knows there's no collusion? Except with the Mad King. Do we still deserve democracy? Are we capable of it?
5
Destroying Chinese (and also Indian and probably Brazilian) economies is probably one of the more effective ways to slow down global warming.
7
Mexico is the new China and the Xi knows this better than anyone.
Got a problem with manufacturing in China? Hope you have a week to spare. Got a problem with manufacturing in Mexico? It can be straightened out with boots on the ground in less than 24 hours.
6
Mr. Trump just want to make sure that china knowing it's #2. Just making sure that china behave itself on the global scale. That included stop bulling smaller nations around.
China, big brother is watching over you...
1
@Justin Nguyen
Like the U.S. under trump doesn't try to bully smaller nations around? In 50 years there will be no doubt who is # 2, and it won't be China.
1
The author, Mr.(Ms?) Li may be too young to remember but "engagement policy" was "sold" to the American public as an agent of change that would transform China into a politically pluralistic democracy. This sales point was pushed by think tanks across the political spectrum and, needless to say, business groups like the US Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable (psst, they probably didn't really care about the "democracy" part).
I strongly disagree with the use of tariffs as a tactic and can't for the life of me understand why trump didn't try harder to get our democratic allies to join us vis a vis China but I do believe "engagement" failed miserably and at least a partial "decoupling" is long overdue.
As to the reporter's contention that many American companies make money in China, I think it's not that many.
4
@trblmkr
"Apple, Nike and 18 other U.S. companies have $158 billion at stake in China trade war"
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trade-war-watch-these-are-the-us-companies-with-the-most-at-stake-in-china-2018-03-29
Likewise, quite a few pensions are invested in these companies.
2
@M Perez
Thanks!
I see most of the companies on the list are component suppliers (exceptions are Apple,Nike) for supply chains for products that may or may not be sold in China.
Furthermore, the list is a measurement of sales, not profits. Even companies that break down sales in their financial reporting may not break down profits.
There is no compelling reason supply chains must be in China.
1
Both countries benefited immensely for sure. The US has been been dominating world economy and causing a brain drain post-war though, and hasn't been challenged until the last few decades by China, although China was the top economic power in the world for thousands of years until the 19th century, when the west started to dominate. Once its economic ambitions got restarted by Deng, China's rise and dominance was inevitable, and it is also handicapped by the limitations imposed on society by the Communist regime.
This might be an opportunity for the US to reshape not just the region but also its economic future and manage it security more proactively. A move of the supply chains of various companies like Apple/Walmart/Target etc. to lower cost and growing countries in the region - India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia etc. I know this is easier said than done. Neither of these countries can replace China overnight, but with some political will and foresight, the current economic impasse w/ China could help drive this transition. Think about an India (and the other countries) which attains the kind of wealth which has enabled China to reach these levels. Not overnight, but in the next decade or two. Also, consider that you have a natural democratic ally with an English speaking populace, predominantly young demographic. We have just created a new large market for our businesses, enhanced our security in that region and also established an ally aligned with democratic values and ideals which are dear to us. Again, as I said this is easier said than done, but there is clearly an opportunity here where we can tilt the geopolitical fortunes in some way in that region.
2
In the short form we can say this: [1] economic 'growth' addiction has several illusions; we can begin to question it. [2] packing the world with material things just because we can and because we think the employment that results is useful fruit harbors several other illusions. We can have a good world, in fact a better, sustainable one, if we reconsider what actually drives well-being.
[Just an example]: We got along fine w/o cell phones, for eons. What makes anyone really think we 'need' them now? What makes you think we really need 5G now? Each level of tech and other material advance is aimed at profit and market exploitation, not something the world actually needs. Sure, it creates jobs -- jobs that people need to buy their way forward in an expanding material mess.
Economic 'growth' that is not tuned to real needs creates inflation which we do not need.
6
The entire world should isolating and boycotting Russia and China both until they straighten up and fly right. Trump is doing what every politician since Reagan should have been doing.
6
@Sparky Don't expect nations that rely on China to buy their product to stop trading with China; we've all got bills to pay and our governments have their citizens to support.
The USA is too blind and one eyed to see that your tariffs /subsidies for USA businesses, hurt our nations trade deficit and make it impossible for our exporters to be on a level playing field with USA producers in America,
4
@Sparky
.. last I checked it was the U.S. which the rest of the world was not getting along with.. We broke the Climate deal, the Iran deal.. We began trade wars & tariffs with long allies & trading partners..
..--The rest of the world thinks America should "straighten up & fly right."
11
"But the doves in China say both sides benefit from the relationship more than they admit."
This may be true, but one side is undeniably benefiting more than the other, by outright state-sponsored theft, hacking, corruption, economic policies and laws demanding intellectual property sharing, and a deliberately inept interpretation of trademark, patent, and copyright law.
Frankly, every president since Clinton should have taken a stronger stance in addressing the trade imbalance and flagrant violation of trade agreements, and as much as I dislike Trump as a person and as President, he's right on this issue.
11
Don't forget in all this, Trump has fallen out with most countries around the world. He's in a spat with Europe over something, and I read he doesn't like the Canadian PM and uses trade deals to get back at the guys he doesn't like. When it comes to diplomacy Trump gets first place for losing. And folks that's why nations like Canada and the Europeans are forming free trade deals with China because all those nations the USA President is in spats with, have to pay their bills. If USA isn't leading the way and has an isolationist policy then it is unreasonable to expect other global nations not to do business with China.
And, why on earth is china classified as an undeveloped nation when it is streets ahead of the USA technology wise and doesn't have the debt USA government has. Is the USA in a financial position to have a trade war as trade pays the governments bills. Bankrupt and corporate welfare businesses don't pay off the governments debt. You all need to toughen up and think about getting the USA debt down and improving life for your own citizens.
Any infrastructure foreign aid paid by USA in third world nations is probably helping China in it's Belt and Road Initiative.
Problem with government is they can't be sacked for bad decisions they've made, that the USA general public will have to pay for, including the slack politicians that have cost the nation an arm and a leg and never have to be accountable for the decisions they've made that costs the nation financially.
4
So does Trump support labor unions or just protections for the patent office. We talk a lot about free market but the patent office isn’t free market. It’s a regulatory body that protects capital.
We sure have a lot of protections for capital in this country. I don’t believe for a second that Trump would support unions and the workers protecting their labor value.
4
Why is America opposed to giving China paper money and promises in return for actual goods? Who is taking whom for a ride? Theft of intellectual property is a different matter, but why does it get mixed in with how we take advantage of them?
1
@sterileneutrino - Why is Xi Jinping opposed to modifying PRC laws to prevent theft of IP? Guaranteed protection for US intellectual property is required before any agreement can be reached.
There's bi-partisan support here in the US on this issue, even among so-called 'globalists.'
3
@sterileneutrino - While the US trades in good faith, China does not.
They manipulate their currency to give themselves artificial advantages.
They steal intellectual property by reverse engineering products and making cheap knockoffs.
They sign countless environmental treaties but don't adhere to them.
They hack and spy into our networks to steal trade secrets.
And if you have the nerve to call them on their corrupt practices, they play the victim card. And since the Chinese people never hear (or trust) news from the West, they win anyway. China is the world's biggest crybully.
4
Not much inflation in the USA since China started producing for us and buying our debt. When US companies and workers made our stuff our money was worth less every year. Since China took over prices and the value of the dollar has remained stable. We don't have jobs but stuff is cheap to buy.
1
Trade wars never have a winner and are not mutually beneficial.
Regardless of the trade war, eventually the trading relationship between the US and China will change as the Chinese home market begins to mature and Chinese wages escalate accordingly. I am old enough to remember when the US was flooded with cheaper Japanese goods, primarily autos and electronics. This eventually changed. China will be no different unless the Chinese government artificially holds down Chinese labor costs as other emerging low labor markets start to challenge the Chinese.
3
We get cheap clothing. Amazon gets most of its products.
China gets US dollars it pretends won't lose value over time.
Everyone benefits. Sure.
Chimera:
Noun: a thing that is hoped or wished for but in fact is illusory or impossible to achieve.
4
‘Chimerica’? With Trump at the helm, a constructive relationship between China and the United States looks more like a chimera. I have no illusions about China. Its deplorable attitude toward intellectual property needs to be addressed. So does the willingness of American companies who freely participated in this state theft so that they could enter the Chinese market or reduce manufacturing costs by tapping low-wage workers. But those (and other) problems won’t be solved by piling on more and more tariffs that will be paid by people at the bottom rather than China or multinational corporations.
4
China hasn’t much to retaliate with because they already blocked US exports investment and technology. The astronomical trade surplus and relocation of great swathes of American industry and jobs to China has been one way traffic for 30 years. And still the Chinese government direct beneficiaries of American corporate largesse has the temerity to level the playing field.
This confrontation is long over due.
14
In the light of the fact that the United States of America borrowed, and to continue borrowing billions, plus billions of dollars... and particularly in the light of the fact that was China buying that debt? Isn’t one depending into the other to continue moving forward? We can take the credit for China to become a world powerhouse. The Chinese have a better approach to work with countries, they don’t spend in senseless war. They are not interested in the Democracy Gospel that the United States of America is too keen to preach.
3
@RBR
Yes, I can see how well the Chinese approach works with Taiwan, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, etc.
It isn't dissimilar to the Chinese approach to patents, ie "What's mine is mine, and what's your is ours."
2
@RBR "The Chinese have a better approach to work with countries" Really?
Is taking advantage of the West's goodwill and not following international rules to protect human rights (see "China Uighurs: All you need to know on Muslim 'crackdown'"), intellectual property theft for military purpose, etc. a good "approach to work with countries?"
2
@RBR
The U.S. owes China 1.13 Trillion dollars. Approximately one-quarter of that is in U.S. Treasury bonds. Trump will never have the upper-hand over China - they have more leverage. Trump is flexing his non-existent muscles, and with China's help, he could easily put the U.S. economy into a tail-spinning nosedive. It may be his intent, based on Trump's actions and his disdain for that which HE deems weak. Of course, he'll wait until after the 2020 election.
As long as China continues to pay their workers the meager wages that they do, I don't know any other way to level the playing field than through Tariff's.
Try this out and if it doesn't work, try something else. We gotta do something.
5
The Chinese state pays their wages or American companies? Who’s really paying the measly wages? Think about that and let it sink in.
3
Trump is also complaining about the trade balance with Germany. It is a bit more difficult though to find simple reasons to blame them. I agree with Trump though that the trade balances should be more or less even for the global system to be sustainable in the long term. What Trump does not mention though is the inherent advantage the USA has because of the US Dollar that is probably the most widely used currency. The USD and the reliance of the whole world on it allows the USA to practically offset many of the trade balance differences on the cost of the global economy and should therefore be factored in when we calculate who profits most at the expense of others.
2
@Peter
On top of dollar being printed for other countries to use (our benefit), we need to change our internal policies to encourage more pro-export manufacturing (learn from Germany).
3
EU is a protectionist bloc keeping out American and Australian food, agriculture, services is a core policy, while allowing EU exports of what they wish.
3
@Dac Only because our food standards are way below theirs. We allow our corporations to poison the food supply and mistreat animals. EU has said if we raised our standards to be comparable with theirs they would allow food and agro trade. And they are right. We have some the lowest and most unhealthy food and agriculture standards in the developed world and it is an embarrassment.
3
1. CHIMERA
(in Greek mythology) a fire-breathing female monster with a lion's head, a goat's body, and a serpent's tai.
1. CHIMAERICA
(in American mythology) a fire-breathing female monster with a lion's head, a goat's body, and a serpent's tai born in California?
I am a life-long liberal and a vocal opponent of everything else this administration has done.
But: We should have never crawled into bed with the PRC ... An authoritarian, oppressive country with no labor unions or environmental protections.
America and other western democracies have bank-rolled China's "rise" at the expense of middle class labor and the health of the planet, while making the greedheads at home obscenely wealthy.
This trade "war" may be too little to late, and it may cause some short-term economic pain, but I for one think its high time we stop fueling the growth of China. I am happy to see prices rise at home so people stop throwing money away on buying heaps of junk and we can experience sustainable growth and a return buying quality over quantity.
America has enough people, brainpower, capital and natural resources to be 100% self sufficient. We should use our strength to create a larger political and economic unions with our North and Central American neighbors and build out democracy, liberty and economic security in our hemisphere. Let China choke on their smog and drown in their plastic junk.
147
@Celeste
You expect too much from this country. We could have done a lot of things if our government had a long term goals. Republicans won’t do any of this and will stoke anti-government sentiments to prevent any policy that is not corporate-driven.
10
@Celeste
I absolutely agree with you Celeste.
I too, believe that China has enough people, brainpower, capital and self determination to be 100% self sufficient. We should build our nation, economic prosperity, and a path to happiness without the debacle of US tyranny. Let the US wallow in their hubris, self-superiority, and racist tendencies!
3
@Celeste. China’s smog is in Los Angeles as hundreds of ships and containers sit off our shores and China’s plastic is on our beaches along the West Coast of the United States. Chinese mothers give birth to babies in American suburbs so their children are automatically American and can go to America universities, displacing some American students as they can pay cash for tuition and middle class Americans mortgage their homes.
We are long past the possibility of “decoupling” our two countries.
2
Chinese businesses will have to adapt and change if this fight is prolonged for sure.
But this is really nothing new for them, and Trump is actually helping them in the long run. The US continues to isolate itself with all of it's world trade partners under Trump and guess what.. China will simply swoop in and fill the needs of these other nations. The US may be the worlds biggest economy, but China is second and growing and has continued to cultivate trade agreements around the world, and particularly in Europe... while the US continues to tear up trade agreements, walk away from trade agreements, and generally prosecute a nationalistic trade policy.
4
It seems Chimerica was a chimera.
60
@Mark That is exactly what I thought when I saw the headline. Nixon's idea turned out to be a bad one. Who woulda thunk it?
2
While China has the nominal 2nd GDP economy, on a per capita basis it is around # 80 near Bulgaria and the Dominican Republic. China has 4x as many people as # 1 GDP America and 10x as many as # 3 GDP Japan.
4
This trade war is great. It will either prove Trump right, that we really don't need China. Or it will blow up in his face, and make people realize that we need and benefit from China more than we think we do. Either way, China bashing has been an easy excuse for our own problems. It is time to see if China is indeed the source of all our problems.
6
At some point, we need to draw the line. Stealing, blatant disregard for copyright law, one-sided mercantile trade, and worst of all, a horrid record on workers rights, human rights, safety and the environment.
Time to force China to change.
25
Why areas many people blaming China when these people are working for US corporations. Shouldn’t a large part of this blame go to the corporations that pay these people ridiculous wages and destroy unions for the benefit of capitals authority over labor?
It would be like a foreign country coming here and blaming the United States Government for a Russian business working out of the US and selling back to Russia. It makes us look ridiculous.
1
It amuses me that Trump has sort of backed into a policy that may be legitimately bold, and somewhat progressive. Which is, from an environmental standpoint, much of this activity should cease anyway. It is wasteful and inefficient.
I personally could care less about the global economy as a political cipher or "wealth" generator, but I care a great deal about making the best choices for the planet and the future.
Perhaps it is time to reconsider our priorities anyway.
5
“I hope China and the U.S. can find a better way to coexist,” he said. “It doesn’t have to be mutually destructive.”
Not possible in our lifetime. Remember the Opium Wars? No? China does. This is why China cares not for Americans or the British. Getting the population of China hooked on opium set the country back by one hundred years. This is why China is flooding our country with fentanyl, gleefully.
China knows Americans are a bunch of ruthless scavengers. But China knows the US is a ‘innovative bunch’ of ruthless scavengers. The key for China is separating the ‘innovative’ from the ‘ruthless.’
Therefore, China plans to assimilate as much technology from the US as possible before cutting us loose for good. Which means nationalizing our companies and our technology and sending us packing. I only wish our politicians and corporate executives could see this. Instead their focus is to hand over the family jewels for transient market share.
The question is, can China be as naturally innovative as the Americans?
Time will tell.
10
@PC
"The question is, can China be as naturally innovative as the Americans?"
Probably not. China is still a Confucian country as is Japan, Taiwan, & the Koreas. Probably @ current sitting the most purely Confucian is South Korea (China's has been watered down a bit by Communism but not in the right way). It was the Japanese who came up with the expression "the nail that sticks up gets hammered down." This has to do with intense pressure to conform to social expectations. It is true in all the Confucian countries. The Taiwanese Director Am Lee (Broke Back Mountain, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, The Hulk, Lust Caution) nearly all of his stories is about people who's inner character is different than their outer character (a bit obsessed, no?) I lived in Korea for 7 years. One student's parent was a dentist, tho his first love was computers, he became a dentist because his exam scores were high enough, it was a more prestigious profession & his parents (mom) wouldn't let him choose otherwise.
If you go to American Universities you will see the graduate STEM schools packed w/ Asians but usually the very best of the Grad students are Westerners because they're there because they r pursuing the topic they love.
Japan found a way to conform Confucianism to spark excellent Econ Growth thru Industrial policy. But once they become developed they can't puncture the ceiling. South Korea followed Japan's example & are trying to avoid its pitfalls. They too struggle w/ creativity.
@Tim Kane
Good god, get over yourself and stereotyping 2billions of people. First of all China has had thousands of years of proven innovations..just google it a bit.
1
"China’s system of low human rights-based mercantilistic state capitalism negatively affected the pricing and wage structures in the United States and other developed economies.”
Yet, Trump once again undermines his own leverage and cause, by taking a brash, bring-it-on, my-way-or-the high-way, loner's approach, rather than pressuring China by building a global alliance with other market-oriented liberal-democracies with developed economies ... I fear this will be another lost opportunity, because of Trump's ignorance and incompetence.
3
This article, like Trump, is so much bluster about nothing. Everyone besides Trump's supporters know that he will almost certainly fold like a cheap suit. If his hubris pushes him to hang on, the elections will turn into a complete wipeout. The Chinese are patiently waiting. The tariffs will disappear by the end of 2020 or earlier, as soon as Trump is out of office.
The successor in charge of cleaning up his mess will quietly drop the tariffs. China will play along and pretend that nothing ever happened.
5
Doubt Trump’s insanity and destructive power? “Trade war threatens” the world’s two largest economies. This is the fake businessman who is a billionaire in the negative sense—he loses billions of others money. Now he’s playing with ours.
3
Playing tough with China has decimated peoples 401K retirement accounts which in years to come will create a new poverty level of seniors looking for Government assistance.
2
It’s really about subsidies and the Boing Airbus is peanuts by comparison. China does not want to be told they can’t do it. The proper forum is the WTO. Either stop or get out.
Global elitists (Republican and Democrats) shaped our outsourcing-friendly policies, which abandoned American people in this overly greedy pursuit of profit.
Chinese wealth gained at our expense, and so now desperate times in China! How Xi wishes Trump did not become President?
HRC would have continued a long line of globalist presidents, which Xi would have loved. Stealthily cheating, copying, and transferring wealth from us.
Oh well! Time for the Communist party to sweat a little.
5
China need only wait out the Trump regime, since the failure of his trade policy will help terminate his disastrous “presidency”.
2
...China cannot afford a prolonged trade debacle with the US, for some obvious reasons. The balance of trade isn't in China's favor, that both countries will suffer isn't in question but China has more to lose.
There are over 300m people in the middle class in China, almost the total population of the US. If there's an economic distortion to this group, the ability of the country to power itself through economic slowdown will be greatly diminished.
Of all the hot button issues, it's the intellectual property theft that makes the US resolute in its stand. Once China started a policy of compelling high tech companies to surrender their trade secrets to operate in China it's seen as an existential threat economically to the US.
If China goes ahead to impose restrictions on services supplied by US companies it will be damaging to China in the long haul because those high end high tech expertises are not easily replaceable. And when American companies come under pressure they out-innovate the challenges. For instance, when Saudi tried to stifle shale oil production by tanking the market in 2014, the shale technology became more efficient and more cost effective to survive the trough. In the end Saudi blinked first and cut production. So, it will be a huge mistake to bet against US companies.
Finally, this US president isn't a strategic thinker but an astute tactical planner. He reasons in short term and that's the most dangerous person to cross at the negotiating table.
3
100% tariff on 100% of Chinese goods, and change our supply chains to source from our allies and our neighbors in South America. Short term pain, long term win.
I'm liberal but in this case, Go Trump! This is long overdue. Yes, I have an MBA and know how this works, so please save the "if only you were only educated you would know..." responses.
188
@wizard149
Some of the supply chains that involve China will take years to rebuild using new partners.
The real problem is that we are relying on low wage manufacturers as "partners." They want to sell to us, but they often do not have the money to buy our products. Now that China is beginning to have a middle class, that could change.
How big is the middle class in South America, or in other third world countries?
We need to require that our trading partners raise the minimum wage that is allowable in their country if they want to sell to us. That should be an absolute demand. As their people get richer, they will be able to buy our exports (and they will not compete as low wage alternatives).
"You want to sell to me? Prove your people can afford my exports, so I can sell to you."
The long term goal should be to have each side rich enough to buy the other side's goods.
If the idea is to improve working wages and conditions here, we have to stop trying to win the "race to the bottom" and get the other side to participate in a race to the top.
How about an economic situation in which everybody everywhere wants and can afford your product? That is the best "problem" to have - how do I make enough to satisfy all the demand?
We should be trying to get to that circumstance, but that requires raising the economic status of our trading partners.
oh, yeah, ... I will match your MBA and raise you a couple more graduate degrees (PhD in chemistry, JD).
51
@wizard149 The trickiest hurdle is that when we shut our factories down, we also tore them down. Someone's going to have to come up with a huge amount of capital to re-establish an American supply chain. But if we can, we should use Shenzhen as an example, where a bolt factory is located within walking distance of its customers, not two trucks and a train away.
7
@wizard149 we should have done this sometime around 2006 when the writing was clearly on the wall.
11
People in China have many other markets. I’m sure that much of what they manufacture is welcomed in Africa and South America. They need to begin selling to those regions.
2
But there is a country called China, and it is not going to melt away from the earth. Back in those days before Kissinger's time, China and U.S. were bitter enemies - no diplomatic relationship. But China survived. The Chinese lofted their first sputnik in 1969 that chimed "the East is red" every time it completed one round. They developed their own A-Bomb. Today, they're working on their own space station. And how about the 5G pioneering work they are doing today? These are signs of a nation's scientific advances.
So what if America decouples. China will still be here to do business with the world.
3
Such "de-coupling" might work out if we had a Congress and an administration actually designing a domestic work policy, but we don't. "We" support building outmoded tanks in Ohio, giving $750 billion plus of our hard earned tax dollars to the Military Industrial Complex, having giant factory farms, and then, of course, there's Silicon Valley for better or worse. Where is the thoughtfulness - bring back quality/ family-supporting/decent wage jobs? Re-building our crumbling infrastructure? A Civilian Conservation Corps, FDR-style? All I see is billionaires busily buying our politicians to cause a race to the bottom for the rest of society.
8
Since all their economic success has not made them more liberal and open, we should rethink funding with commerce a totalitarian superpower. If we are suspicious of Putin, we should be downright defensive of China.
4
According to media coverage Trump raises tariffs is bad. China raises tariffs, its Trump’s fault.
1
@Shamrock Yeah ... that's called "The Reality of the Situation". You know, FACTS.
1
I'm no fan of Mr. Trump but in the case of China.... he happens to be right. Normally I'd be a free enterprise/free trade for all guy but tariffs are the only leverage we have. China ignores everything else including the WTO (which was a massive mistake by the Obama administration for letting China in).
China steals our intellectual property (either through Cybercrime or requiring IP transfers for access to China markets) and puts up barriers for foreign access to its markets. At some point we have to say Stop. China buying more US goods doesn't solve either problem. Of course, a trade war is going to hurt both sides and it may take decoupling to further make the point. Already companies are looking for alternative supply chains. I think that's good even if most of those chains don't fall back into the US.
This is an area where both political parties must stand together. While the article points to some fundamental differences in economic models, the truth is China wants to continue to play by its own rules precisely because it has become so successful. They don't want to change the game. That the rules are one-sided is now being challenged by Mr. Trump. While I wish he were much more tactful, this is precisely the time to challenge how the game is being played.
7
The one thing Trump and co get right is the issues with China. Ones that should have been addressed years ago and ones we got from both parties. The naivete of thinking we could liberalize China followed by PNTR and getting China in the WTO. Which allowed US companies to shift manufacturing on a large scale and to crush US labor. Tariffs alone will not do the job unless they are used to prevent US companies from chasing the next low cost country. I would add that a good set of policies would include restrictions on PRC companies and individuals from investing in and or holding US companies and or property, revoking visas for PRC students studying in the US (something we never allowed when we were going up against the Soviets) and not allowing work visas for PRC nationals. I say all that as a progressive and have been saying the same thing for well over a decade if not more. From knowledge as I started studying the PRC and China in 1976 and have good friends who have worked there at high levels and who concur on the issues.
8
@Robert-
Ronald Reagan, George Bush, countless Republican governors and legislators backed by big corporate Republican donors and Fox entertainment crushed US labor.
We are at full employment. We haven't lost jobs we lost some jobs and gained other jobs. We lost workers rights, our social safety net, environmental and commerce protections from Republican legislators, Presidents and governors.
5
Perhaps the best thing that can happen to all of us is for the economies of both countries to just free fall and collapse. That way we can build from the bottom up and we'll have learned from our mistakes. Yes lives will be ruined but that's a chance we all take by living and breathing air.
Trump will keep going back and forth on his position so his money managers and associates can profit from market speculation
8
There is an underlying question that must be answered: if Donald Trumps actions have been bizarre and incomprehensible since his inauguration, why should the dire consequences of his tariffs on the world economy be a surprise to anyone. Does the NYTimes believe that reason, care and sanity may be evident at some moment in his presidency?
4
@notfit Instead of Trump bashing, how about looking at the millions of industrial jobs lost to the US? HOw about the fact that we have an enormous negative balance of payments of China?
But no, Trump bashing takes priority over everything.
@Ludwig "Trump bashing takes priority over everything."
Clearly, don't forget, "you cannot be civil;" notfit certainly hasn't.
Very good time to spread the U.S. demand and investment leverage and lessen China's economic leverage. Better balance.
5
Our government has been helping China for decades at the cost of the well being of our own people. It became a vicious cycle increasing poverty here necessitated lower prices - which meant more manufacturing in slave labor countries and more job losses here. Something has to be done. I don't care if I have to pay higher prices- my fellow citizens, who lost everything, were already paying the price for me saving money.
20
@willt26 Our government has been helping China?
I think our companies have been helping themselves by outsourcing to China, then writing fat checks to the GOP to lower their taxes and cut regulations
10
We can safely assume that Trump cares nothing about people in China or the the US. His motivation is always about himself. China has little to offer Trump other than producing cheap shirts and ties, and shoes for Ivanka's shops. It's most likely that Trump is doing the implicit bidding of Putin. Trump definitely sees his future with the Russian oligarchs.
16
@syfredrick He. or his associates. can also make a lot of money with insider day trading on the volatility he is personally generating.
6
@syfredrick "We can safely assume that Trump cares nothing about people in China or the the US."
Well YOU can assume this, if you read the NYT and absorb all its anti-Trump propaganda. Face it, if he remained a businessman he would not be absorbing all the brickbats from you and people like you.
If you look at the following video then you can see that Trump very much cares about America. He may be right and he may be wrong in how he goes about taking care of the America. But that he cares is obvious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8wJc7vHcTs&t=348s
@syfredrick That is a biased statement but you are entitled to your opinion.
"The United States blames China for heavy job losses." That blame should land on the manufacturers who left America, not on the Chinese for accepting their largess. China has a billion more consumers than America has. There was a way to match or at least even the playing field, by reaching trade agreements with the other Asian countries and emerging markets but that was called TPP and a black man, who made fun of Trump, arranged that treaty so it had to be scuttled. I'm certainly not going to fear the end of Trumerica.
7
@Rick Gage TPP had to be scuttled because it was overtly unconstitutional; it delegated court authority to foreign third party arbitration. Neither the executive nor the legislative branches have the authority to delegate court powers, and those are the two branches responsible for entering into agreements with foreign nations.
I recommend you read both the constitution and the TPP, if you want to understand the problem.
If your goal isn't to understand the issue, but simply to call conservatives racist while screaming irrationalities at the top of your lungs, then by all means, continue on as you have, you're doing a bang up job of it.
2
The question is whether China will give a President that they surely detest a win that could propel him to a second term or if they'll sit tight, endure the pain and hope that Trump, with his absymal polling, isn't around for a second term.
China is known for its long term thinking. My guess is that they'll take the second if at all possible.
4
@cort "China will give a President that they surely detest "
Have you asked the Chinese themselves? The Chinese know how to take care of their own country and they will respect a man who wants to take care of HIS.
True, he is their opponent. But his philosophy, "I will take care of my own country" is very much like theirs.
@cort I don't think the Chinese detest Trump. In fact I think that overall they've done him huge favors, after he withdrew from TPP. Whatever control he might manage to exert on them with this effort -- i.e. if this ends with what he can call a "success" -- it will still be a lot better for them than what TPP would have allowed the entire region to impose on them.
There is only so much you can do unilaterally, and only for so long -- even for United States. The biggest favor any President since Nixon has done for China was Trump's trashing of the TPP, with its human rights provisions, etc.
@MadManMark If Trump didn't "thrash" the TPP, the courts would have; it delegated court authority to third party arbitration, which obviously can't be done without a constitutional amendment.
I doubt any on the Supreme Court, regardless of ideology, would be willing to set that precedent.
When I read the comments, it seems to me that most have the same blurred vision of China as Trump has: a autocratic country that steals intellectual property, has cheap labour and oppressed people. One should inform himself a bit. China has changed a lot lately, so did the US, but the latter not so positive. Most Chinese probably have a more "middle class live" than the average American, and probably a safer one, as not that many guns are around. As for intellectual property: lot of inventions come from the east lately.
25
@Dirk D
I believe it is YOU who has the blurred vision - China’s oppression has continued and gotten even stronger. If you actually believe “middle class live” is better in China, I believe you read too much propaganda.
8
@Dirk D
"lot of inventions come from the east lately"
and
"a autocratic country that steals intellectual property, has cheap labour and oppressed people"
Aren't mutually exclusive statements.
There's little to question that Chinese companies steal intellectual property near constantly and with little to no repercussions from the Chinese government, there's also no question that labor in China is cheap; that the quality in life in China is improving, and that some of their companies are genuine innovators, has no bearing on the former FACTS.
4
@Dirk D
Very good points but, unfortunately, few here get them as most never went to China and few really understand China
5
I think prior US presidents didn't call China out because they recognized the symbiotic relationship between both countries (mutual dependence and benefit).
Arguably, Donald Trump got greedy, as Donald Trump is wont to do. He wages a trade war so that he can win it, thereby making China lose it.
This is the sort of dramatic, superficial thing one can expect when a reality TV star becomes president.
64
@Alex Cody
Eh,Bravo!
5
@Alex Cody
Sorry, but the only reason US presidents didn't call out China was because in all cases - Democrat and Republican - they were bought and paid for by Wall Street.
Trump does MOST things wrong. But his tack on China is 100% absolutely the right thing to do. You either change the status quo now, or within a decade the United States is a vassal state with its masters in Beijing.
Google "China On Top: How China Is Using America's Playbook To Take Over The World." That documentary spells out EVERYTHING that's going on right now.
4
This is the biggest issue facing our country and not one Democrat running has made this a priority. Easier to talk about illegal immigrants, I suppose.
I wish folks would look past our divisive president and support this policy of playing tough with China.
And I wish Trump would make an effort to make this policy bi-partisan.
China needs to know this is our new policy regardless what party comes into office in 2020.
9
The funny thing is, I’m pretty sure even Democrats wish their party would take a harder line against illegal immigration. Trump has taken it to a cruel extreme, but Democratic politicians have reacted by moving further left. Obama, who (humanely) deported a record number of illegal immigrants, would’ve laughed at the idea of abolishing ICE, yet somehow it’s now a legitimate talking point?
2
@MS So if I support some of his goals, but think he is picky the most inept and stupid strategy to pursue them, thereby probably leaving us int he end further from our shared goal than when we started -- I'm supposed to shut my mouth and not say so???
1
I don’t hear any Democrats criticizing tariffs on China, although the potential risks to consumer prices and overall economy certainly make them nervous. Don’t expect Democrats to compliment Trump on an issue since he won’t ever repay the favor, but understand that a dearth of criticism on the China issue is really tacit support.
1
Most commenters here still don't understand the problem. Of course both side benefited from Chimerica, and maybe China benefited more than U.S., but the problem is not cheap Chinese goods taking jobs from U.S., as now those cheap goods are shifting to Vietnam and Bangladesh. China and U.S. is clashing now because China is shifting to high value tech products and challenging U.S. in 5G, robotic, cloud and quantum computing, and AI. The import/export discrepancy is merely an excuse. 9/11 forced U.S. to delay the conflict advocated by Bannon, Bolton, and the neocons, in addition to wasting trillions in futile wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Meanwhile China has been saving and investing in the future to face challenges of the future, climate change. China has no interest in displacing U.S. as sole hegemon, but the world will move her own way despite intentions of both.
26
“Wu Shichun is one of countless Chinese entrepreneurs who over the past four decades have prospered from access to American customers and money”
Where are the American entrepreneurs who have access to Chinese customers and money? Trade must be a two way deal, and at this point the trade has been tilting in China’s favor.
20
@Maureen
Americans having access to Chinese customers and money.
Apple's sales to/in China run at about $15 billion a quarter. Also many of its IPhones are assembled in Shenzen, China.
>>Beyond tariffs, trade hawks within the Trump administration are pursuing what they call decoupling, or breaking up a relationship that they now feel poses a long-term strategic threat to the United States. The trade hawks hope to get American companies to shift their factories to friendlier countries. They are pushing to restrict Chinese investment in the United States and cut academic and other bonds.
I’m pretty sure this is how MOST Americans feel, not just trade hawks in the Trump administration. Chinese nationals definitely work hard—no question. And they’ve become more entrepreneurial and innovative, like other countries when they transition to an advanced economy. But that would have been IMPOSSIBLE if China had the same environmental policies, human rights, labor laws, respect for intellectual property, etc. as the U.S. China’s meteoric rise came at the expense of American manufacturing’s steep decline.
To be fair, American corporations were so eager for quick profit that they basically allowed it, and the U.S. government is too pro-business to have stopped them. Well, the chickens have come home to roost.
153
@Mssr. Pleure I'm afraid you have missed a key point. It was the dumping of low cost products by companies in Asia in the 70s and 80s and mostly China in the 90s and 21st century that forced US companies to outsource or die.
China's going to find it much easier to cut economic ties to the US than the US to China. The world is full of ready made customers while it's going to take a while for the US to develop new vendors ... and all the while the Chinese are going to keep doing all the bad things the trade talks were supposed to address ... without any reason to believe any new vendors and trade partners are going to be any more "cooperative" than China was.
Too bad we don't have a great negotiator in charge of our foreign trade policy.
7
@Bob
Doubt that the EU will open the doors to more chinese goods. U.S. consumers can afford to cut back but the chinese work force is not going to stop growing.
1
@Bob
There you go again. Hatred of Trump warping what you see.
1
@clarity007 - The world is a lot bigger than the EU ... why do you think the Chinese have expanded to Africa and South America ... not to mention Asia.
"US consumers" are as undisciplined as Trump ... advantage China ... our "leaders" have destroyed any illusion that America is the "one and only". People better get used to the fact that Trump has lead us down a dead end street and he has no intention of trying to turn us around. WE need to do it, he refuses.
Everyone here should learn a lesson from Buddhism, the Law of Impermanence. Everything changes, all the time, every day. We roll with it or we dig in. Digging in keeps us stuck in the past. Trade wars are the equivalent of entrenchment. No one goes anywhere except backwards.
21
@HeyJoe Uh, what? The "trade war" is meant to change the status quo between us and China, not entrench it; in this case, your metaphor works wonderfully when used to describe "Chimerica" as impermanent, but falls flat when you try to force it to match your worldview.
2
Listening to Trumps rhetoric he seems to genuinely believe that Tariffs are good for the country. He has imposed them on both allies and China and he is looking to expand them on both allies and China.
This fight may not be a trade war in the sense that tariffs are used as a negotiating technique. If we are to believe Trumps rhetoric he honestly believes that tariffs will bolster the US balance sheet and bring jobs back to the US without igniting inflation.
When Trump says he wants a deal he never says what deal he wants. He always says tariffs are good, I'm tariff man.
I don't believe there is anything to negotiate with Trump. Since he became President he has broken deals. He has yet to renegotiate any substantial deal in a meaningful way.
The USA under Trump is all about monetizing US power. Leadership and the rule of law are completely irrelevant.
As an entrepreneur in the USA, I have the same fears that Wu Shichun fears. Global economics and markets are under assault by President Trump. In the long run it's not investable. In the short run speculators are having a party.
43
Chinese prosperity matters very little to me when Confucius Centers are at public universities, intellectual property rights are violated at every turn, and lead-contamination has been found in the county’s exports.
The relationship is toxic and one-aided. It’s time to decouple.
(Preemptively: Yes, I understand how tariffs work; no, I do not support Trump.)
203
@A Discordant Voice Sharp and to the point.
2
@A Discordant Voice
Actually when it comes to intellectual property rights, many companies wanted the US government to protect them in China but would NOT make any allegations themselves - too much money to loose. It's rather like complaining to the police that your banker is skimming from your savings account, but refusing to turn over the records because the interest rates are so good. it really is about the money.
1
@A Discordant Voice it Trump is the only president to take on China...he may or may not succeed. But you have to give him credit for this! Politics should not warp objective judgement.
2
The relationship does not get solved with tariffs. There are real issues to be worked out but escalation of tariffs is not what this is about. Trump taxes the US consumer with Tariffs to make China cave.
2
In China a "low human rights-based mercantilistic state capitalism" has increased the economic prospects of its citizens, but brought it into inevitable conflict with other nations. In the US a neoliberal capitalism with an extreme devotion to letting the market decide and shrinking state involvement has led to a lowering of the economic prospects of its citizens - except for those at the very top. Might I suggest that there is a middle way that best serves the interests of the majority of both nations' citizens, one that increases cooperation rather than conflict? Let's work toward that model.
18
The problem is that the last three administrations did not put too much thought about the trade deficit we have with China. For the last three decades almost three "Trillion" dollars were transferred to China, while our national debt reached twenty two "Trillion."
This is no way to manage an economy. Congress which is useless, and the previous administrations shoved it under the carpet and increased the debt ceiling.
It will take several years to correct im trade deficit with China. We are so dependent on China that even the computers that the Pentagon is using are also made in China, and that is a security risk.
In the current situation, China doesn't have to spend a dime on R&D, our companies are forced to partner with Chinese and have to transfer the technology that the American taxpayer subsidies.
29
@Templer the TPP addressed a lot of the concerns you raise, but Trump precipitously pulled us out of that
14
@Templer that’s not how trade works unless you are talking about Great Britain or France in the 1800s.
Also, if you haven’t studied US history in beyond the high school level, the US non-WWI/WWII national debt started with Ronald Reagan’s supply-side voodoo economics.
9
IIRC Obama started lowering the rate of increase of the national debt. His policies would’ve begun to REDUCE the debt if Trump had followed them.
10
Being in bed with China immensely enriched the corporate USA, shareowners and companies. Not so much common folks due to the loss of jobs. In the long run, USA certainly lost this battle since China is now a giant that can and will take on USA economically.
It is particularly sad how are treated those who lost jobs. The 'economists' on both sides lament on those losing jobs to outsourcing by telling them 'tough luck', 'better luck next time', 'you made shoes and now you have to make yourself a programmer, if you can't, sorry, only got yourself to blame for it'. They will then rub it in even more saying 'you know, on average, we as a nation do benefit from cheap products from China and those who are sacrificed in order to get that, well, our thoughts and prayers are with them for a while, they have to reinvent themselves'.
That is until we do not benefit anymore and have problems as the ones this entire brouhaha is about.
I unconditionally support evening the trade with China and am disappointed that so many people on the NYT pages intentionally or not or not are cheering on the Chinese side just to malign Trump.
8
@ss you raise valid points but tariffs will not fix those issues - they hurt both sides equally
1
If Beijing questions why “barriers have gone up” in America and around the world, it need only look in the mirror.
China tried to simultaneously have its cake and eat it. On the one hand, prospering from a stable trading system, peaceful seas, a global information economy. On the other hand, trying to replace those things with authoritarian Chinese versions.
37
@Publius Actually, if you consider facts instead of biases, the US has actively used its intelligence apparatus and its military to install and maintain downright dictators around the globe. Have you heard of Reza Shah, Pinochet, Duvalier, Ngo Dinh Diem, and most recently, el-Sisi?
Fundamentally different governmental structures will inevitably lead to some sort of conflict, be it economic, political or otherwise. At the end of the day, China is an authoritarian state whose government has little regard for human rights or those who do not fit their Han centric narrative. The United States has done some pretty bad things in its past and present, but even the most ardent of extremist must recognize that the US hasn’t put 2million people in concentration camps because they’re Muslim.
At the end of the day, this relationship is untenable. The United States will feel taken advantage of by the Chinese governments lack of regard for international trade and intellectual property protections, and the Chinese government will maintain its drumbeat of false propaganda to its citizens. This is not some sort of clash of dueling civilizations, little fault should be given to the Chinese people, who by and by are simply trying to survive much like us Americans.
This particular conflict is about our leaders playing chicken with one another, one for votes, one for his literal survival. One who must electorally answer to his people, and one who is willing to sacrifice the lives of tens of millions to get whatever he wants. I wonder who wins in the short term?
In the long term, we’ve seen this story before. The Chinese economy in its current state is untenable. No matter what Orwell says, a government can’t control billions. It will either change, or burn. Their choice.
33
@Shawn You are simply repeating what many have been saying since the 90s, that China will inevitably fail economically unless it adopts a US-style democracy. We’ve seen that movie before.
5
@Shawn "but even the most ardent of extremist must recognize that the US hasn’t put 2million people in concentration camps because they’re Muslim."
No we did because they were Native Americans and we called them reservations. No we did because they were of Japanese or Japanese decent. Yes both those things were a long time ago, but the latter happened during my still living grandparent's lives. The main difference is that for the most part it seems we have learned from those mistakes. While Chinese are still actively engaged in such activities.
As for false propaganda? While it may not be the government directly, what do you think Fox "News", MSNBC, and most of AM talk radio is?
I am not trying to excuse the Chinese Government lack of respect rule of law of human rights, just that we should hardly be throwing stones. While it can be argued it is a matter of scale we should not forget our President and Republican controlled Senate stole a Supreme Court seat. Those same people are flouting the checks and balances put in place by our constitution.
21
China does not play fair:
1. US companies must have a 50/50 JV in China, run by a Chinese, and turn over all IP and customer list. They cannot take cash out of China. Chinese companies operate freely in the US
2. There are millions of Chinese citizens in our offices, universities, freely operating and stealing intellectual property.
3. Every US citizen in China is under surveillance. They are arbitrarily thrown in prison for refusing to pay bribes, I mean, "taxes"
How do I know? I lived in China and did business, until a US Citizen classmate was thrown in jail for life for refusing to pay a bribe, I mean taxes, to some low level communist official.
349
@MoneyRules
American industry freely knew the Chinese rules of commerce when they ran eagerly into China to accept the profits - even at 50/50. Thousands of American businesses made billions of dollars from cheap chinese labor and a willing consumer market thirsty for foreign ingenuity. When did you finally realize that the playing field wasn't fair? Ending this co-dependent relationship will be difficult. American businesses have always been free to leave and set up camp elsewhere. But, yet they stay! Why?
107
@MoneyRules but tariffs will not fix these issues. The TPP would address some. Trump, however, pulled us out of the TPP. Not to worry, the remaining signatories of the TPP set up an agreement of their own - they will be good to go. Once Trump is gone maybe we can revisit the TPP as a good starting point. Tariffs will not help.
52
@MoneyRules Your comment accurately reflects things and this has been clear to anyone who studied it. I also have friends who lived and worked in China as you did and they have been Sinologists all their lives. They have little good to say.
25
“The conflict wasn’t about the United States being threatened by China’s growth, he said, but by its vision of state-led capitalism.
“This is the conflict of systems,” he wrote. “It won’t end easily.”
The US has state-led capitalism better known as croney capitalism. After the 2008 crash the stock market, corporations and the wealthy were bailed out while none of these same actors who caused it were put in jail. The FED has also given banks/corporations zero interest money so they can buy back their stocks and pump the stock market. We bail out our big ag corporation whenever they have losses. Is this really just projection by our leaders. Our military is used to force countries using threats and regime change wars, to give our corporations their resources such as oil.
5
It is a sad day when American foreign relations policy amounts to the use of throwing rocks and bullying with a club. That has been Trump's anemic and uncreative method of 'negotiating' with foreign trade partners. Trump's lack of cultural understanding and his impatience, are weaknesses that the Chinese will exploit.
The Chinese always play the long term. The long history of being burned by foreign imperialists over the past 4,000 years has provided a rich history that every Chinese person knows quite well. The Chinese have been following the playbook that Trump thought he wrote: Make China Great Again. China is the miracle turnaround that has set a path to success unmatched by any nation.
American have not only benefitted from the Chinese success story, but every American has profited from the access to cheap products, high quality competition, and a stable source of products that have fed The American psyche. Whether it be cheap Nike shoes; Iphones; a revolving door of clothing lines; or components for every appliance in our homes; American standard of living has been raised due to access of inexpensive goods from China.
America is a ercession away from reinventing our manufacturing process to replace the goods that will not be imported from China. The next itteration of the supplu chain will erase many of the jobs that Americans now hold, as Amazon and its IT force take over the marketplace.
Good luck to us all in the war of commerce. What we don't know will hurt us.
11
@John B I applaud your evidence-based narrative. However, I’m afraid it won’t be popular for the sole reason that it is not only socially acceptable, but mandatory for most Americans to bash all aspects of modern China regardless of facts.
1
@John B Sorry but the cheap goods argument fails on its face as does the Chinese miracle. The fact is that US elites from both parties and business handed over a large chunk of US manufacturing in order to reap profits and to crush organized labor in the US. The net result was a loss of 50k manufacturing companies, 4.5 million direct jobs, wage suppression and stagnation and a ballooning BOP deficit. All while aiding a political and economic opponent and creating risk by not producing critical goods in the US. I dislike Trump but the US does need to suffer some pain to reverse that process.
4
I would argue that the "advantage" of buying cheap goods from China has been more than offset by wages remaining flat in the U.S. for decades now. And, as for jobs being erased, all the goods made in China and other, lower-labor-cost nations, came at the expense of our citizens who once had stable, union, family-supporting work.
3
The difference between Chinese exports and American ones is that the Chinese don’t change their minds every five minutes. They have the entire world to trade with. The USA is making every current trade partner rethink the logic of trading with a partner that is apparently suffering from bipolar disease.
Would you continue to shop at a store whose owner refuses to sell you things on a whim, or the store across the street that is reliable? There is a lot more to the world than the USA.
To you farmers that count on exports to sell your crops to: the guy you voted in just destroyed your future. Once another reliable source is found for your crops, there is no reason to do business with you, unless you’re willing to undercut the prices so deeply you’ll never make a profit again. Don’t count on a bailout, if congress is smart they’ll refuse to fund it.
57
@Paulie The GOP in Congress will turn it's capitalist's back on "free-trade" and bail out the farmers. Because if the Repubicans don't, the farmers may go Democrat in 2020.
2
Unlimited imports from countries with low wages don't benefit people with low wages in rich countries. They may benefit many people, the may benefit GDP, but they don't benefit a rich country as a whole, as a society. When agriculture jobs were lost to mechanization, manufacturing was on the rise. These jobs replaced those. That's because the money from the mechanized farms was still in the country, ready to be spent. When we offshored manufacturing, the profits left as well. It lifted most of the Far East out of poverty, for which I am very happy (I am not happy it validated the Chinese model, which is just a coincidence), but it made this country poorer if you look at the typical American, more unequal and conflictual. If we keep looking only at the GDP, we can't understand anyting.
121
@Atm oht
Look at the median wage compared to GNP growth since 1972.
Where?
Here: bit.ly/EPI-study
scroll down to the 2nd graph.
From 1945 to 1972 GNP grew almost 100% and the median wage (i.e. everbody's) grew with it.
Since 1972 GNP grew another 150% but the median wage has remained flat.
Since some workers wages have grown (tech/health) we can assume the broad majority of wages in the U.S. have been declining for 47+ years. That's 47+ years of declining expectations for most of our fellow Americans, brothers, sisters, friends, relatives, and so on.
The pre-1972 was the New Deal/Demand side economics era. Post 1972 became the supply side era.
If the pre-1972 era was fair, the post 1972 era was unfair. If the pre-1972 era was good, the post 1972 era was bad.
47+ years of flat wages is not sustainable without the elites from both parties being complicit. From the stand point of the working class, Trump's clumsy, which is probably just a stunt to get working class votes (and will probably come to nothing), is attention that is long overdue. He's doing it for votes. That's the way democracy is supposed to be run.
If you ask 90% of the elites in the Democratic party to return to Pre-1972 Demand Side New Deal policy they'll say your are a radical. If you say it to elites in the GOP they'll say you are a socialist.
Unfortunately the Dem Elite sold out & gave in to the rich & abandoned the interest of workers.
4
@Atm oht
If the minimum wage had kept up with CEO salaries and perks, it would be $33/hour instead of $7.25. We need MAFA - Make America Fair Again.
3
@Tim Kane well we now could have the green new deal. AOC is smarter than she seems. Connect the biggest emergency with the biggest Injustice and go back to FDR. Too bad she's so inexperienced.
We shouldn't be dealing with any nation for which theft of our intellectual property is national policy, where environmental and labor protections are nonexistent, where the rule of law is absent. Yet every day, far from abjuring association with tyranny, we seem to be becoming more and more like them.
251
@Dale Copps Even though your comment does not mention China, the inference is clear. However, I would contend that none of what you state is true of China. China may be lagging behind in all the criteria you admirably list, but it has made much progress in each of them. Unless there is encouragement when progress is made and condemnation when it is undone, the world will not move forward as we hope.
9
@Dale Copps and how many wars were declared to fight the spread of communism, how many lives were lost, and how jobs were lost. Now our corporations are in bed with them. The tarrifs are on products made by American manufacturers paying slave labor and CEO's becoming billionaires. Seems like a oxymoron to me
4
@Dale Copps
> “theft of our intellectual property is national policy,”
Would you kindly find this “national policy” for me? All I could find about China’s intellectual property rights (IPR) policies is that they have been deploying new laws and innovative enforcement methods to protect IPR, including specialist local IP courts.
3
Uhh, China definitely benefited more.
17
@Mssr. Pleure where did “definitely” come from? I’d argue that the US has benefitted more from this relationship, because China depends on foreign nations relatively equally, and the US is not its biggest economic partner. That would be the EU. Meanwhile, China has remained the largest trading partner of the US.
Zhanwen,
The EU isn’t a national polity. Greeks don’t directly benefit when Americans buy German cars. And China is becoming less reliant on the U.S. with the Belt and Road initiative
Anyway, it’s not just about who has more to lose in 2019. It’s about what the U.S. has lost and China has gained in total. American workers couldn’t compete against a country with lax labor and environmental laws where the government makes all the decisions. While China lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty and grew a thriving middle class, American manufacturing centers collapsed and workers lost decent paying jobs in an advanced information economy that can’t yet figure out how to properly allocate them.
China has shifted to high value manufacturing by ignoring copyright laws and corporate theft, allowing Chinese companies to sell a smartphone at the fraction of a price of their American competitors.
Economic power has given China military power. North Korea wouldn’t survive without the Chinese government’s support, and China wouldn’t have been able to turn the South Chins Sea into a literal, artificial archipelago—pretty much a massive new territory.
The U.S, government has given Chinese students unlimited access to the hundreds of universities; many are the the best in the world. There’s no big brother controlling them or other Chinese nationals in the U.S. Then they bring their skills and knowledge back to China.
China definitely benefits more.
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Also, just to be clear, I’m talking about the post WW II Chinese government, not Chinese culture, not China’s historical contributions to global civilization, and DEFINITELY not Chinese people. In fact, I wish that the U.S. government accepted more Chinese immigrants; Chinese Americans have had an outsized positive impact on this country (and on my own life). They make the United States better.
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Let this be a lesson to America. Lay down with dogs and you'll soon realize that dogs provide a certain type of warmth and comfort. Oh. And you'll get fleas.
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