In the last 200 years, Human beings have become the most invasive species the world has ever known. It isn't just about accelerated climate change from our industrial and agricultural activities: it's about unsustainable population growth and CONSUMPTION. It is interesting to note that the jellyfish has survived on this planet for more than 500 million years and it has no skeleton and no brain.
9
This is a good article but it is not the first article I have read about the challenges of climate change that mentions invasive species. I expect that if you asked farmers, foresters, and land managers what is the biggest threat today (not in the future) to their crops or land, invasive species or climate change, most would claim invasive species. I am not saying this to negate the significance of climate change but the threat of invasive species is severely under reported. I live in a county that is in the spotted lanternfly quarantine. The lanternfly arrived several years back from China and is spreading quickly to the dismay of farmers and others. I fear it could make the willows we sell from our farm unmarketable. There are so many invasive species. We bought plants from Texas that where certified to be free of several invasive species I had never heard of. A quick internet search claims invasive species cost the US $120 billion a year. We need more reporting on this and more policy as well.
7
We grow berries and greens in MN. Spotted wing drosophila led to us abandoning our raspberries and focusing on strawberries, because in our region SWD doesn't overwinter and it doesn't usually come up from the south until the very end of the strawberry season. Last year we only got half our strawberries off, we picked for only 11 days before the crop was unmarketable. It was snowing in mid April for us and my family 7 hours south in Iowa were mowing their lawns. SWD arrived shortly after the weather broke, there were reports of them in the state while the strawberries were still flowering. So much for strawberries being a safe bet. This year there's still snow in the forecast today, May 1st. I should be planting by now. I worry about where all this is leading. Our business is one thing, but I'm worried that as it becomes increasingly hard to grow food, it will become increasingly expensive to eat. The broader implications for society are frightening and the pace of it seems beyond our capacity to adapt. The situation on the farm has changed so much in ten years, I can only imagine what the situation will be for my children. I dont understand how climate change isn't front page news every day, people seem to think this stuff doesn't apply to them. Everyone who eats should be concerned.
31
And yet these farmers support trump a climate change denier. They get what they deserve.
4
I didn't vote for trump and I grow your food. So our fates are intertwined. When i get what i deserve, your food gets more expensive. Unbelievable.
24
@Tran Trong.
I didn't vote for Trump either, and I grow your food, too.
8
Globally the shift in CO2 concentrations as well as the changes in water patterns and temperatures will change how well crops do, and where they can thrive. The Happers of the world bleat "CO2 is plant food" but ignore that it's just one part of what a plant needs, and more CO2 doesn't directly translate to more of what we consider valued crop.
"Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels this century will alter the protein, micronutrients, and vitamin content of rice grains with potential health consequences for the poorest rice-dependent countries"
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/5/eaaq1012
"A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation
Without adaptation, losses in aggregate production are expected for wheat, rice and maize in both temperate and tropical regions by 2 °C of local warming. Crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7–15%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize. Yield losses are greater in magnitude for the second half of the century than for the first. "
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2153
2
@ b fagan chicago
Obviously, the phytosphere of the Earth did not take up all the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels. If it had, there would have been no, or much less, of atmosphere warming.
I do not know, if this was due to insufficient availability of nutrient phosphorus in natural soils or simply a time lag between the CO2 increase and plants' response.
To remove efficiently CO2 from the atmosphere by plant growth, dead plant matter must be buried and not reoxidized to CO2.
1
Am I the only person dismayed that many of the solutions highlighted in this article call for more genetic engineering? Science may try prove GMO crops are safe, but it just doesn’t feel like the right answer.
7
Plant breeding doesn't necessarily mean GMO, though that is one tool. Plenty (most?) plants are improved through traditional breeding. I think plant breeders these days will often screen young plants for traits they're looking for using genetic analysis, but that's not GMO. The genes are getting shuffled in the good old fashioned sexy way.
8
@MB They don't have to prove they are safe. There has to be proof they are not safe. As of now, we understand GMOs to be 100% safe to eat. They likewist the same time cause a whole range of problems economically and with property rights. But nutritional safety is not currently a concern based on data. But I think you know that as you stated you just don't "feel" that's right.
3
Spotted winged drosophila is native to very cold areas of Japan. Not surprising it survives in New York, Maine and Michigan regardless of a shift to warmer winters. So while I know our Ag industries are challenged by climate change, don’t think incidence of SWD is a significant one. Don’t get me wrong SWD is a a huge problem but don’t think worse due to climate change.
4
@Chad did SWD enter do to our dependence on Asian supply of our produce?
I think you're right about SWD's arrival in the US. The article missed the mark a bit in my opinion. Where climate factors in on our farm has been that crops considered safe in our area still have problems with SWD because they blow in with unseasonable weather. strawberries are normally safe in MN. But last year we lost half the crop because warm weather in the southern states allowed the pest to move to our region sooner.
4
@Chad I'm with Adam. In the northern plains and Midwest, we are spoiled by by harsh winter weather that lowers our pest and disease problems. Some years I'm not seeing SWD and then after 3 days of south wind, Bam, they're here. So the warmer, more humid southern weather does affect our fruit crops.
3
Do these people - growing our food and farming our food - believe climate change is the culprit for the changing weather patterns and challenges brought on by larvae infesting fruits?
Or, is it just dumb luck?
Because we need the voices of people impacted by climate change to speak out - to let it be known loudly that they believe in climate change.
Just this week I had a "discussion" on facebook with relatives of mine who do not believe it is real. And then all of their friends jumped on to say they don't believe it either. Those folks need to hear from people impacted because, otherwise, they think it is "liberal agenda".
11
@Kelly
I hear a lot about "denialists" and "deniers".
Yet, according to polls, most people believe global warming is real.
Is it possible that the effects of global warming have been exaggerated by some of the believers? For example, in this story in The New York Times, many of the assertions have not been quantified or backed up with data or references.
Should readers take these assertions on blind faith?
1
Great article. Just curious what happened to the Great Lakes, and the entire state of Michigan in that map? Does this project that the Great Lakes would be dried up and gone, and somehow the Upper Peninsula would be annexed by Canada?
2
Meanwhile, Trump/Navarro tariffs are crippling red states and farmers as the WH buys their votes by throwing them a bone of new farm welfare subsidies.
8
Add wine grapes to that list. California's billion dollar wine industry is on pins and needles each year because of the changing climate and the crush season comes earlier and earlier.
9
@Krismarch - it's all changing, which is OK for annual crops, no so for things that might be producing for years.
Not too long ago, people who deny the risks of climate change were mentioning that back a few hundred years ago, there were wines produced in England. Well, time passes, and wine is now being produced in Scotland.
"Celebrating Scottish Winemaking (Yes, There Are Five or So…)"
https://www.winebusiness.com/news/?go=getArticle&dataid=171427
The deniers aren't saying as much about it these days.
and yet they encourage economic and population growth
1
Don’t you worry about climate change and climate adaptations. Help is on the way.
The biophiles will come to the rescue in backyards all across America. The discoveries needed will be made in tiny plots of land in our suburbs and everywhere else where those of us, who were born loving plants and all living things, live. The learnings and knowledge will be free to all just for the asking.
The age of the Biophile and Biophilia has arrived.
It would make a fantastic idea for a follow up story.
1
Yay back to subsistence farming. Now the population of America will all live hand to mouth like it was in the 1700’s
3
The big row crops are on the move, too. North. Things are moving and change is not what farmers love, as the article points out. Here are maps about what's under way.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/redrawing-the-map-how-the-worlds-climate-zones-are-shifting
2
@b fagan -- do you just except everything you read uncritically? I won't go through everything in the article you attached -- but if you go check on Climate at a glance -- you will see that Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi -- the states where tornado activity has supposedly shifted (who knows really) -- and none of those states show warming 1895-now. Some show a slight increase, others a slight decrease -- but if you avg it out -- pretty much ZERO.
So whoever this person they cited obviously doesn't know what he's talking about when he says warmer temps are part of why tornadic activity has shifted.
Parts of the east have gotten warmer -- the Acela corridor and Florida -- but I'm betting that's due more to urbanization than anything else. But taking the temps for all the eastern US and using that to explain a possible increase in tornadic activity -- well, it's Yale after all, and they must be believed. Or at least the uncritical thinkers among us must believe.
@Ralphie - did you read every referenced paper that the Yale link shows - a published reference for every chart and in multiple links in the text? Did you read the referenced paper that describes the tornado shift? Right in the diagram box is says Source: Agee Et Al, Journal Of Applied Meteorology And Climatology, 2016
Rhetorical question. You don't read the evidence, you just doubt without looking.
So once again, Ralphie, to your standard misdirection about urbanization - I ask you to explain how urbanization is warming Alaska faster than the rest of the country. As a reminder, it has 1.3 people per square mile, compared to NJ with 1210.1.
Since 1925, Alaska's been warming at the rate of 2.9°F per century. Explain urbanization's impact there.
Here's the link to Climate at a Glance site we're both fond of. They seem to have updated the server so it's faster.
So after looking at Alaska, go to "Regional" tab and see that there is a warming trend in every single way they define areas of our country.
Explain how urbanization is warming the Mountain states that are big but still have just one congressman - they're warming fast, too.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/statewide/time-series/50/tavg/12/12/1925-2019?trend=true&trend_base=100&firsttrendyear=1925&lasttrendyear=2019
7
@Ralphie - by the way, I looked up trends for the states you pointed out were flat - if considering since 1985. The tornado study looked at the shift over the last 60 years. So what has been happening in the area in the last 60-ish - and in the last 30 years, while tornado patterns have moved?
Here are trends by state, degrees F per century since 1957 and since 1988
AL +3.4 rate since 1957, +4.5 since 1988
GA +3.8 accelerating to +4.6
LA +3.6 accelerating to +5.2
MS +3.5 accelerating to +5.0
TN +3.9 accelearating to +5.3
You can verifiy at Climate at a Glance, of course. Texas and Oklahoma are warming fast, too, by the way.
But why is the Southeast flat over the longer term? That's the cooling trend there mid last century. Read the link - paper explains that a sharp decline of agriculture and population in the '20s led to shift from cropland to forest, changing temperatures. A quote:
"Referring to the IPCC report, the overall land-use change impact of −1.06 W m−2 estimated in this study is larger than any other forcing other than CO2 itself (+1.68 W m−2). Based on this result, it is easy to see how this negative forcing combined with the other components already identified (aerosols, atmospheric particulates, overall dimming, etc.) result in a cooling effect over the Southeast during the majority of the twentieth century."
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/EI-D-15-0038.1
3
I wonder how many Americans understand these ominous signs.
Who cares about heirloom popcorn?
Well, soon it will be every crop.
Fewer pollinators,
less predictability,
more pests, diseases, heatwaves, floods.
The seriousness of this crisis will become
clear enough when it blows up your grocery bill,
and shrinks your dinner plate.
15
Really? I can't find a single reference to any scientific article that backs up this article. What this is is a collection of anecdotes. How about a simpler explanation -- weather is cyclical -- as is climate. Invasive species show up not because it's warmer but they slip into new territory through shipping and trucking. Some years it's hotter, some years it rains more. Life isn't predictable.
As for the 95 degree F reference in Maine. Sure, every once in a blue moon it might hit in the 90's in Maine. But the average max high is in the 70's for the summer months. And it varies a great deal from year to year within a range from 69 to 76. I've been there years ago when it hit 90 -- but that's so rare.
And in another crack article on climate change and food today in the Ny Climate Times -- we learn that we should learn to eat like:
Vietnam
India
Venezuela
Leabanon
and as a token to the US -- Kansas.
And again, all anecdotes -- but with the terrifying quote:
" Also, with climate change turbocharging droughts and storms, there are new risks to food security for the 800 million people worldwide who don’t have enough to eat."
Really? A febrile imagination may be affected by climate change but there is no evidence that CC is turbocharging droughts and storms.
Is there any wonder few people read or comment on climate stories in the Times.
1
Very dramatic writing. But erratic weather is not something new. Please stop pretending, and stop the catastrophizing.
Be quantitative. Do the math. Global warming has been less than two Fahreheit degrees since 1880. That is more than a hundred years—or less than 0.02 Fahrenheit degrees per year, on average.
Farmers have always had to struggle with erratic weather. Researchers have always tried to develop better crops.
Not everything is climate change: Invasive species can be brought in via cars and trucks. Immigrant labor restrictions are not climate change. Tariffs are not climate change. Growing population and increased agricultural production have placed demands on aquifers. Prices of all products have been rising—not just food products.
Also, please stop calling temperature "heat". Heat flows from a hot object to a colder one. Heat is not measured with a thermometer, but temperature is.
This piece lacks objectivity. It reflects the climate change hysteria that is all too common in The New York Times.
2
Wow, the NYT has just described the normal life of farmers and ranchers. It either rains too much or not enough. A bad outbreak of insects and have to spray. Grass too tall and no place to store all the hay.
Please stop with the fake news. Agriculture is doing fine and America will continue to feed the world.
2
This is the most ridiculous article published yet on this subject. The temperature change has been less than 1 degree and there is nobody who can discern this difference. NOBODY!!! These silly publications do nothing but spread false data and try to get people excited about a non-existent problem. Climates have always changed and will do so in the future with or without mankind.
2
Either we are going to build huge hydroponic farms, or we are going to annex Canada.
1
But this is impossible... it’s a hoax and a plan by the liberal elite to steal trillions from the party of Trumpism
Just another false flag operation by the climate change hoaxers. Giving them cover to raise prices. Our Great Leader has declared climate change a hoax. He has one of the world's greatest mind, he has told us so many times. Are you going to believe some 'educated, soft-cheese eating leftists' with their so called evidence, or the POTUS. Time to choose sides.
5
Thomas Friedman in an opinion piece, here in The NY Times, addressed the issue of the Syrian civil war as the first climate change conflict. A drought in Russia, 2010, reduced it’s wheat production much of which was exported to the Middle East and North Africa. These regions have flat wheat breads as an essential to all meals. Shortages of flour lead to Arab Spring. In Syria there had been a drought since the early 2,000. Leading to mass exodus of farmers to Damascus and into poverty. The mix of flour shortage and poverty, according to Friedman, led to violent demonstrations then the first climate war which is still going and will continue for a long time. Syria is the model for climate conflicts of not too distant future. When people driven by poverty and lack of food attempt mass migration.
16
Anne yellow raspberries used to be the highlight of our summer. My son would race to the back yard after preschool and gorge himself on berries straight from the vine. (between the late spring & fall Anne crops, there were other berries, but the sweet, delicate Anne raspberries...nothing compares.)
In my garden outside Portland, OR, I have an organic garden with 5 varieties of thornless blackberries, several raspberries, 17 blueberry varieties, a few strawberries and a couple of grape vines. SWD showed up about 2015, and since then my raspberry and blackberry crops have been decimated. The blueberries and grapes can mostly resist them. June-bearing strawberries seem unaffected; ever-bearing strawberries, not sure. Last year, by midsummer slugs were EVERYWHERE, and they ate their way through most of my strawberry patch.
Anyway. Tiny predatory wasps may be our best hope in fighting SWD.
SWD, or drosophila suzukii, are spreading exponentially because they resist most predators native to the U.S. (even if a predatory wasp successfully lays eggs in SWD larva, the SWD larva encapsulates and kills the native predator’s eggs. Within a few days, the ripening fruit collapses, then turns into a dried-out husk - still on the vine.)
China and Japan do have successful SWD predators - Ganaspis sp. and leptopilina japonica have been found most effective in the studies I’ve read. That SWD came here is tragic; I hope a natural balance in their population can be achieved soon.
7
This reminds me of an opening reel in an old horror movie, when some occurrence is ignored or dismissed as innocuous but later is revealed to be the first sign of some impending doom.
People who dismiss climate change (as well as other degradations of the environment) find it inconceivable that the earth could suddenly come to resemble the barren surface of Mars. They are right. The effects of climate change will reap havoc on food production, economic systems, population relocation and political order long before the worst case scenario comes to pass.
I think we've seem reel one; reel two is just getting started. Pass the popcorn.
5
I farm, or I did until I retired a couple of years ago. Garbanzos (garbs, as growers call them) require more water than wheat. No crop requires less water than wheat, except rye. The classic rule of thumb is that it takes 4" of moisture to bring wheat to head, and then each additional inch will produce about 5 bushels (300 pounds) per acre. I'm not able to grow garbs, but it might be that they leave more water in the soil, assuming you have control of all weeds, than does wheat.
Grain prices are low right now partly because world production of grain has been high (also because of Trump's fight with China). This high production could be a result of more precipitation as the general rule is that "rain makes grain". Lack of frost in the spring is a huge help to soft fruit growers, and many row crop farmers in WA. Longer growing season means more crop opportunities and higher production.
So I think farmers here, in general, are not suffering under climate change yet, but everyone is nervous about the future because climate is obviously changing and our ability to adapt isn't unlimited.
7
@roseberry - read again about the peach crop in GA and SC a year or two ago. Early blossoms, frost, lost crop. Springtimes are moving earlier, but last frost dates aren't following predictably. So how do farmers tell their trees to not blossom yet when all the temperature signals say go?
3
Bad news since I enjoy ‘old fashioned’ popcorn that isn’t zapped in the microwave. Will probably buy artichokes at any price. Same for coffee and the occasional steak bought at the local butcher shop. Life’s little pleasures.
Missing from the article might be what consumers can do about product availability and inflation. Will anything I do make a difference? For example, our household doesn’t buy single use products like bottled water, paper plates, etc. Reusable saves money. Disappointing to think that money saved won’t go towards discretionary spending like entertainment. Savings from not buying stuff I don't need will soon be negated by higher prices at check out?
Perhaps the economics of something as essential as food needs to be part of our political discussion if it isn’t already.
3
Great article. Please do more on food and climate change!
20
The data is clear that the planet is warming, but I haven't seen an accumulation of data confirming that the weather has already become much more erratic than what it was in the 20th century. Have researchers been crunching those numbers?- because, as a farmer, I know that those of us that toil in the soil love to complain and have always remarked on how unusually difficult is almost every growing season.
I'm responsible for realizing a crop on many hundreds of fruit trees and only one season here in 25 years has been ideal- 4 seasons ago.
Warmer, longer growing seasons are responsible for some new pest problems, but global trade has created even more problems by bringing damaging hitch-hikers with the cargo.
Ultimately, the riskier it becomes to grow food the more expensive it will get and crop insurance will protect large farms from bankruptcy.
The people who are really going to suffer are people who can't afford the escalating prices. This will not only likely lead to widespread famine, but also desperate, do-or die migration.
7
@alan haigh, yes. That's what the conversation is about.
So it's still unclear to me why farmers support trump. He insults instead of coming up with ideas. He laughs at farmers' concerns, even though he holds them up as the only true Americans.
Listen to Democrats! They at least understand the uses of science, engineering and logic to solve problems. If you don't like the ideas, that's perfectly OK. So turn to the republicans and ask them. They'll point and sneer, insult and scream "Soshulizzzmmm!" to make you hate, and that's it.
So when you farmers talk about how all this will play out, you are using the best information you have. This information is brought to you by sincere citizens trying to solve a problem YOU YOURSELVES are directly impacted by.
Why don't republicans have any ideas about health care, or climate change, or affordable housing, clean energy, pollution control, etc?
Isn't that weird? It's almost as if trump/republicans/Putin want sole power, and they're doing it (with your eager help!) by making you distrust your fellow Americans.
Indivisible
From Many, One
The United States
United we Stand, Divided we fall
Such silly words! They've been replaced by:
Liberals are your enemies
Our free press is your enemy
Immigrants are your enemy
The 'public good' is Socialism
4
@deb Farmers support Trump for a list of reasons maybe not as extensive as my list for despising him (as a president, I don't presume to actually know him), but long enough.
The main deal, I think, is rural culture stresses community and church and that's where you go for your help in emergencies.
Why they feel they have any idea what makes suburban and urban areas run, despise urban politics, yet gladly take everything the gov gives them from city generated revenue is probably because they just don't see it that way, no matter how much data you give them.
3
Jared Diamond book germs gun and steel has been revered and harshly criticized but one thing in that book expressed in a sublime way , almost everybody understand what it means for civilization.
Today society (20th and early 21st century) prospers because food surplus and food supply is reliable.
That reliability paved the way todays developed nations civilization.
If climate changes downgrades reliability, all bets are off.
You may be missed but small scenarios of this future has already witnessed. Syrian civil war and country's disintegration in fact triggered by crop failures due to climate change. Let's do not forget, this is past 7 years ago.
Can China, India , USA or Brazil cope with any kind of essential crop failure?
food for thought.
7
@ su ny
I think that it is not the climate change per se that "is Altering the Foods America" grows and eats, but the people's perceived reactions to the questionable connections of their diet to climate change make them shift more and more into the vegetarian camp.
It's global disruption. It's cultural disruption. In Italy, the past 3-4 years have seen the olive harvest be decimated by too warm winters that didn't kill off the fly that is destroying the olives. Super hot dry summers have cut the truffle yield dramatically. And while truffles don't feed the world, they are a crucial cultural element in Umbria. Chocolate is in danger as cacao grows in a narrow temperate ban. Coffee is struggling. Hopefully, astute articles like this will wake people up to the need for immediately addressing climate change.
13
I'm amazed at how predictable and stable the weather was in the good ol days. Well...not really cause I was there. Although climate change is always a factor, it will increase production of many crops...until it changes again.
1
@wallace, your sense of complacency will vanish when you realize it's more than that. A warming planet means this becomes more common:
"About half the world's coffee-producing land will be unsuitable by 2050, according to a report from the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). ... And both species (of coffee beans) suffer from pests like the coffee berry borer, which causes over $500 million in annual damages and is spreading in a warming world."
Again, you equate weather with climate, which confuses you. I won't try to explain; others do it better. But when there is NO coffee except for the rich, no pine or spruce forests, Guinea worms and malaria mosquitos in Minnesota, (just a few actual examples), ignorant complacency will not be an option.
5
It’s STILL necessary to explain the diff between weather and climate?
Good grief.
7
@deb
Don't forget the chocolate growers are also in trouble, big trouble. Chocolate will grow only in a very narrow band around the equator and its very about its fussy temperature demands.
2
One of the best articles I have seen lately in any newspaper or magazine.
10
School taught me climate change was going to shift agriculture patterns in predictable ways while also increasing uncertainty. We're seeing agriculture patterns shift in predictable ways while uncertainty is also increasing. This isn't rocket science. It's climate science. Why people act surprised is beyond me.
9
Just stop and Think a minute.
All our problems in this world, Nothing surpass food production.
Agriculture and the way our lifestyle has not met a crippling challenge yet.
If it happens , god forbid it is a thing break down the society's fabric.
It is something cannot be leave in the hands of Trump like presidents.
9
Here are some relatively easy solutions:
1. Grow thine own vegetables and fruit using greenhouse hydroponics, a technique that significantly mitigates climate change risks, is organic by definition and more water efficient.
2. Better yet, enlist locals to build indoor community gardens with a symbiotic chicken coops.
3. Ditch the red meat -- it's unhealthy and a terrible use of scarce resources.
2
@Concerned American Concerned American in Iceland: you may have missed what happened during the California drought not long ago. Organic dairy farmers had to get special dispensation to not use organic feed since there wasn't enough of it, because of the drought.
Organic is not a drought solution. If you have to ask to avoid your own rules when climate change looms, maybe you aren't climate-ready.
3
@memsomerville
My point was not about growing crops organically but about growing them using hydroponics, a water efficient technique that minimizes water use among many advantages. The fact that hydroponics is organic (because there are not pests involved and therefore no pesticides needed, if done indoors) was just icing on its climate friendly cake.
2
@Concerned American Hydroponics is very costly for most crops, particularly those that produce less food per square foot and therefore need larger land area for production.
3
I hope we will eventually go back to producing food mainly locally and eating in season.
When I grew up, there were no apples in the winter from New Zealand or beans from Kenia. We stocked hundreds of potatoes in the basement and ate in-season vegetables.
Many of our own farmers are producing soybeans to ship to countries like China.
It all makes no sense.
The true cost of worldwide shipping of food and goods, which is the impact on our planet, is not currently included in prices.
11
@Catherine
I grow potatoes, carrots and beets and store them in the cellar. I buy and eat local in season. However, I love tangerines and oranges and eat them in California season. I could eat sauerkraut all winter long, but I’ll continue to eat California lettice in winter. I love apples, but don’t buy ones from Argentina in July. I eat apple sauce then. We make our choices.
5
@Catherine True, the cost of shipping is subsidized by the lack of 'Carbon Pollution Pricing', until we have a world wide system of taxing the hydrocarbon pollution of the air of our planet, the cost of energy, shipping, etc. will not be assessed its true cost.
2
And the result will be a world that can't feed itself. Just look at the relationship between global warming and obesity crisis. Both started in the early 1980s. If we can just reverse climate change I strongly suspect the obesity problem will follow!
2
Wow, all those organic crops are at more risk because the tools are limited. Yet I'm constantly told organic is more sustainable and resilient. How does that work, exactly?
Taking the tools off the table at this time when we need rapid responses to pests and timing issues of crops is really unwise. Please, let's have science-based decisions and not philosophical ones on food.
5
@memsomerville
Actually, plants/trees that don't rely on massive doses of chemicals are more sustainable and resilient. There is a old apple tree near me that produces every year and has for the last 90 without any help. But without the chemical manipulation organic produce is harder to get to the market in photo-ready condition. Americans are going to have to give up picture perfect produce.
1
I am a small-scale farmer in eastern West Virginia, not far from the megamarkets of Baltimore and Washington. This is an excellent article. But it should be pointed out that small and/or micro operations like mine, darlings of the "buy local" food movement thriving in our big cities, are far more vulnerable to the economic hardships brought by climate change than big corporate agriculture operations. We don't have the deep pockets needed to recover from damage caused by high winds, extreme flooding, new pest pressures, etc. We can easily be wiped out by one or two difficult seasons. Our disappearance probably won't affect availability and diversity in the supermarket, but it will certainly put still more power and control in the hands of the major production and food corporations now dominating the range and nutritional value of Americans' diet. As they say, "you're gonna miss us when we're gone."
36
" It also doesn’t hurt that hummus is so popular, opening up new markets.'
This is what is driving this trend in my part of MT - The money "can" be here. Many (not all) of the farmers trying newer crops are still climate deniers and if the chick pea market/crop quality is poor they go right back to cereal grains as their bread and butter.
3
Although not in America, I saw this happening directly while photographing in Greenland for a grant.
Sheep farmers--perhaps a dozen in the whole country--were being gravely effected by changes happening to their farms, crops and sheep.
5
Finally, you got my attention at popcorn. I'm sure that the effect to the niche fruits you began the list with are very important to the affected industries, popcorn is universally adored. Tell the World they'll be facing a life without affordable popcorn and they'll be storming Washington for change.
3
Have you read the NYT article from yesterday "Lessons from the Little Ice Age". This article about climate change talks about the breakdown of the early middle ages food economy and changes that caused socially.
And this looks like it might be the cause of another set of those social changes. It that's the case, lets hope we have a government/society which can help us weather them.
7
@Mac Lingo
FAT CHANCE.
1
Unfortunately Farm groups, led by the American Farm Bureau, are so wedded to right wing ideology and the right wing political network that they are principal opponents of climate change legislation.
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@James Cubie
True enough, but actual farmers are driven by economics, not ideology. When the wheat crop fails for too many years, they look for something else to grow. More and more Montana acres are being planted in pulses: peas, chickpeas and lentils.
Though all the press is going to the Impossible Burger, Beyond Meat products are soy, gluten and, for those who care, GMO free. Beyond Meat sausage is very tasty. Beyond Meat uses mostly pea protein. Pea protein is an up and comer in the food industry. Montana farmers may be Republicans, but they plant what they can grow and sell.
As a side note, Trump tariffs have caused counter tariffs on chickpeas. It doesn’t take many votes in a state with only a million people to flip an election.
9
And yet, we Fossil Fuel addicts motor blithely along in our single-occupant, urban, 4wd SUVs, flying randomly here and there on our "badly-needed" vacations, seeking a break from our underinsulated-oversized-McMansionized lives, refusing to make even itsy, bitsy changes to our entitled lifestyles for the sake of our beloved grandkids. Sayonara, homo sapiens…
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@Miss Anne Thrope You nailed it. I have a dear friend who, now retired, posts all day on Facebook with horror stories about climate change. I suggested to her that she consider not flying anymore, as it is a major contributor to climate change. My suggestion was quickly dismissed. Most people cannot be bothered to take the slightest action, let alone one that cramps their lifestyle. Anyone who is really serious about climate change needs to stop eating meat, stop flying, not have any more children, and reduce driving.
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@Erin - How often does your friend fly? Does she fly for business or pleasure?
Cutting back where we can is a good idea but it's unrealistic and unfair to ask people not to travel and if you want or need to go somewhere like Europe flying is the only option.
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@Erin - Yeah, plus here in The Land of The Free (old, white, rich men) we WASTE 58% of the energy we produce. We WASTE 75% of transportation energy (Yikes!), idling in traffic jams in our single-occupant gashogs.
Yup. Too many people on the planet.... And how often do we see an article on overpopulation as it affects climate and every thing else?? (Immigration anyone!)
All of the flat rooftops in wherever can be utilized to grow various crops --herbs, lettuce, radishes, tomatoes--but OH NO -- insurance companies apparently insist that no one ever be allowed to go on a roof.... and PS growing my green (cheaper than city trees) would help with lots of things... including climate change, pollution, etc. There should be major tax breaks for landlords who apply for roof gardens .. I understand that the pied-a-terre tax was indeed turned down in Albany!! but now we get to buy plastic garbage.. whatever.. all part of the same.
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@Auntie Mame - Overpopulation is one side of the coin - the other is Overconsumption.
Americans represent about 4.3% of global population, yet we consume 25%+ of global resources. On average, we consume more than 5 times our "share". Our 330 Million citizens consume the same amount as 1.65 Billion typical global peeps.
If the rest of the world consumed the way we do (and they're trying hard to catch up), we'd have the Consumption Equivalent of 38.5 Billion humans on the planet.
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Want to really know what's going on?
Ask a farmer.
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@Boo Radley
You must know pretty different farmers than I do. If you want to hear that climate change is a hoax ask a farmer where I live.
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@Boo Radley Or even ask a home gardener. We are dialed in to weather and food growing, because we work so hard at it.
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@Boo Radley
NYT had an article/interview with a farmer, Mr. Moss, who said something like "I want to talk about weather; don't talk to me about climate change"
There is no hope for such people
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Only more and bigger government can save us! Please.
@Ryan: "If men were angels, no government would be necessary."
- Alexander Hamilton
If more and bigger government is the only way to address global warming and climate change, then the world will have more and bigger government.
If you dislike that solution then find a better one. Disliking a fact does not change a fact.
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We also should be very concerned about corporations & businesses who don't want any controls on their ability to pollute air, water, & ground while they seek profits. Their only ethic is to enrich shareholders & investors.
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If America and the world had fully embraced safe nuclear energy in the 1970s and 1980s, we wouldn’t be facing a global catastrophe now. We did it to ourselves, out of fear, stupidity or whatever. Now, it’s too late. There is basically nothing we can do to avert a climate catastrophe in the next 25-50 years, Even if we could somehow magically stop using fossil fuels today, the processes leading to climate disaster are already in place. We are a stupid species and are doing ourselves in. Led, of course, by the worst president in the country’s history.
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Mark, because nuclear energy yields radioactive waste that remains deadly for 10,000 years, I submit to you, sir, the phrase "safe nuclear energy" is an excellent example of an oxymoron.
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@Mark. It's kinda like smoking. One should have never started, and having started one should have quit 20 years ago, but quitting always helps even now. It may be too late to save the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, and that is bad enough, but there might still be time to save the East Antarctic ice sheet. Losing that as well would be a complete catastrophe.
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@krw There are many current nuclear reactor designs that do not produce long lived radiation as the current designs do. Remember most of our current nuclear reactors were designed in the 1950's for use in nuclear submarines, and converted for land based power plants. Imagine if we were all still driving 1950' automobiles. Also new Fast Reactors are able to burn the current nuclear waste stockpile, creating energy and leaving a much smaller residue that is safe within a few hundred years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prototype_Fast_Breeder_Reactor
2
Next article: talk with trout and salmon fisherman about changes to the watersheds and the food chain--people who have been fishing the same place for 30 or 40 years--and you'll hear some equally scary stories as what you printed in this article: waters are warming, spawning seasons are shorter, insect hatches and populations are way down, weed growth is increasing (and oxygenation decreasing)....
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Perhaps these farmers should collectively make a trip to Washington and educate our president about this "hoax" called climate change.
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@JHM - Except that "these farmers" are ADM, Monsanto and Dow - and they're already in Washington, shoving campaign money down the throats of their wholly-owned (R) Congress Critters. Citizens United!
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You should at least look into chains such as Costco when you debate the Drosophila outbreak ruining raspberries in NY and Tart cherries in Michigan.
When you buy fruit from Costco for instance many times my home ends up having fruit flies all over. They arrive in the fruit that they are selling. So in effect we are importing the bad insects from the store
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How can this be possible if the president says climate change and global warming are fake news? Isn't it true that the president of the United States is a man of high virtue that never lies? Please, my perception of America is collapsing right before my eyes. I thought that we were a exceptional country with world class scientists and doctors.
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talk to your local ag agent or nursery store....things are changing.
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I'm not a farmer, only a back yard gardener but I've seen the changes. The cold weather vegetables don't do as well, the warm weather thrive. That is they thrive until the too hot or too wet summers hit them.
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@sjs We're seeing the same thing in our backyard gardens, too. Our fruit trees blossom earlier than years ago and killing frosts then destroy fruit production. Our cruciferous winter vegetables are doing poorly as summer heat arrives earlier. The insects and pests increase every summer. Guess I'll start planting avocados and orange trees next year.
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@Mary from Terry
And up here all the evergreen trees and bushes are not looking too good either
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Maple syrup season was odd this year in that it was normal. I now have records going back to 1976. Around 2000, the peak run days for sap began moving back about a week and by 2010 I was tapping during the first week of February to catch those good sap days. The season now typically come in waves with a week or so of sap run weather of sunny 45 degree days and freezing nights followed by deep freeze days then back to warm days and frosty nights. This pattern has extended the season by almost a month but the total gallons of sap hasn't changed much, meaning buckets are hanging longer and I'm working longer seasons. My hobby fruit trees will be fine this year but in previous years warm March has caused blooming then the freeze gets them. My local orchard farmer has had 4 lost years of the last ten where in the previous 25 years he had two. Our local university now reports that heavy rain events have doubled and avg rain events are up about 10%. Our aspargus bed was planted 40 years ago by another man and he still comes over and picks. He remarked it was always a late April harvest but in the last 15 years he's been picking as early as March several times and mostly in early April. Those of us who have hobbies in the outdoors see the changes. Like I tell friends, two degrees is the difference between a survivable light frost and a killing freeze for many plants.
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GMOs and newer safer pesticides can solve many of these problems, but people just do not want to use the safe technology. GMOs and new technology can also make conventional farming much more sustainable than organic.
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@JB, You state this about GMOs as if it were fact.
The nutritional content of crops is changed by GMO processes. We've evolved alongside these crops for millenniums.
A lot of GMO "improvements" are so that crops can withstand the intensive spraying of herbicides and pesticides that increase yields many fold - in some cases. But the herbicides kill off weeds so that less water is wasted growing things in the fields that don't produce revenue and at the same time kill off the soil flora (fungi included) that help the food crops' uptake of soil nutrients. The fields become deserts, unable to support *anything* except the GMO plants which have been engineered to grow only in those conditions.
And the pesticides guarantee that the fauna biomass (worms, insects, birds, amphibians) continues to drop, precipitously, reportedly by as much as 80% in the last couple of decades.
The gluten in GMO wheat has changed and now people are getting sick from it. This *may* be a direct result of the above processes.
Your comment suggests that you think humans can outsmart Mother Nature. She always bats last. Time will tell. I will not bet against Mother Nature; I'll bet that we're heading for a collapse of our ecosystems.
We humans are smart, but not actually smart enough to dodge the calamities that we have created: warming planet, acidifying oceans, more plastic than fish biomass in the oceans, growing list of antibiotic-resistant superbugs, and on and on.
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@Lennerd.
By the way, there is no commercially produced GMO wheat, making it impossible for people to get sick from “changed gluten”. The product doesn’t exist in our food chain.
Mother Nature does change, but the advances in farming techniques have made our food supplies more reliable, cheaper, and just as nutritious.
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@Lennerd
We humans?
There are countries on this planet where
GMO's are prohibited. Namely, the EU.
and, by and large, Canada.
America has poisoned itself.
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Sooner, rather than later, this will have severe economic impact on consumers. Maybe that will be enough for voters to push politicians to take climate change seriously.
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No it won’t.
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Yep. It is happening everywhere.
I planted two Magnolia Virginianas in front of our house in Eastern PA and one has already grown well past the roofline in 10 years. It is a gorgeous plant to appreciate this far North. Magnolias have now expanded their range farther North. And, Magnolias, of the northern and southern types, are everywhere in eastern PA and love the climate here and are thriving.
I also found Musa Basjoo. This banana plant, grown for fiber in Japan, was found growing in Maine, and had survived the winter under a pile of hay. I was able to procure a cutting and I now have a colony growing 12 miles from City Hall, Philadelphia. I found a spot in the yard that is wet and sunny and they now cover over 20 square feet and grow to between 20-25 feet tall in one season. In the winter, they die to the ground and I use their own wilted and very fibrous foliage as their own blanket. It seems as if their cold adaptation, made them barren, for they produce no bananas. My own thought is that they just don’t have time.
The secret to growing Musa Basjoo is to plant the root about 20 inches deep and pile enough hay in the first couple of years to get it stablished. I essentially created a compost pile around them to speed up the creation of a thick humus layer. Now the neighbors think that I am some sort of a genius when all I am doing is looking at the weather and listening to the plants.
The weather is changing and the plants know it.
Trust me. I am a biophile.
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Good adaptation is the only realistic course of action to address a changing climate.
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And that takes up front money. Planting new orchards full of more insect and heat tolerant trees is entirely a project of debt financing for 10-20 years. Texas, OK and KS grain farming is headed for trouble. What does a person do with a 1000 acres of sub par land that holds their business's entire investment?@vulcanalex
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@vulcanalex - Another realistic action is to stop voting for Republicans.
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Who knew climate change could be so difficult? The rulers of the fossil fuel world are on a mission to get as much out of their investments no matter the cost to society. Their campaign to misinform is still working as many think climate change is a matter of opinion. Reality can be a painful and costly teacher and every year that passes will see more and more believers as they struggle with their own personal stories of how climate change devastated their lives.
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@Bella - However, "The rulers of the fossil fuel world…" are only The Pushers.
We, you and I, are the Fossil Fuel Addicts. We're the ones gathering @ the gas pumps like junkies in back allies, injecting our urban 4WD SUVs w/ artificially-cheap, subsidized gasoline, then off to the airport for a badly-needed long weekend in Mexico.
"But I know - it's my own damn fault…" - jimmy Buffett
With all of the obvious facts staring them in the face, why do people in these regions continue to vote for regressive policies that will further, negatively effect their livelihoods and the nation's food production??
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They vote for Republicans because they, their family and their friends get all their news from FOX. They are are not bad or stupid people but their understanding of the world is formed by anti-science, fear mongering media funded by sociopathic billionaires.
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@Ahf: Don't tar every resident of a Red state with the same brush. Republicans don't win by a margin of 100%, and educated people (the kind that are aware of climate change and want to deal with it) tend to vote Democratic: they're just outnumbered and gerrymandered. Ms Severson, who's open about her sexuality, lives in the South, but that doesn't make her a Bible-waving hypocrite.
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@Polygone
I just don't get it. Farming today simply isn't "plant and pray." Farming is a highly technical business, and I'm assuming that the average farmer is a smart person who deals everyday with hard facts and scores of scientific variables.
Why do smart people vote for Trump and against their own interests?
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Farmers, I feel your pain. My home peas are blossoming and it's going to be 85 degrees today! The good news is the bees have returned: one in the front yard and one in the back.
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There are lessons to be learned from the past, although many Americans are not interested in learning from the past. Some people besides archaeologists have seen the effect of drought on society. In what is now the Southwestern United States in the 13th century, nearly 30 years of unpredictable weather, not just drought, caused large scale migration from the "four corners" country where Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico meet. Importantly here is that it wasn't just the dry years, but the unpredictability of each year that caused nearly everyone to move south to areas along the rivers such as the Middle Rio Grande Valley with available water. Where will Americans go now?
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@M.S. Shackley So desalinate underground water using wind energy, problem alleviated. Don't spend money on foolish high speed rail, but rather on desalination.
1
In best case realistic scenarios, we aren’t going to do much to alter the course of climate change over the next century. This is a reminder of the adaptation that will need to occur. We will continue to eat and that will mainly be a result of private agribusiness reallocating labor and capital in response to change, backed by the quiet hero’s of the agricultural scientists at our land grant colleges and universities.
Unfortunately we need to be concerned that political inertia may obstruct adaptation by perpetuating obsolete wasteful land use by such policies as the ethanol program. Many of our federal farm programs such as cotton and tobacco are tied to growing a particular crop exclusively on particular plots of land. The science can keep up, but our constipated rigid political system may create our biggest proble
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Thanks for the great article, and let's keep up this kind of reporting: the effects of our neglect with climate change and the possible solutions to the issues. Since I am an avid gardener, I see the climate changes in my own yard. I shop as much as I can locally and especially at the farmer's markets.
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This is a significant national security issue. Relying on food from outside the U.S. opens us to risks of shortages and contamination, particularly from less regulated third world countries, and risks we become hostage to those better food producing countries in a food war to end all food wars.
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@Concerned American,
Oh, but Trump's tariffs will ensure that Americans won't be able to afford imported produce! We will be oh so self-sufficient! Won't have to do business with foreign countries (unless they are headed by dictators). So much winning!
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@Concerned American
Contamination of our food chain due to deregulation, dismantling of oversight and imports will only become an agenda item when it becomes so bad there are even regular food recalls from places like Whole Foods, Wegmans, ... in the DC area.
4
Thank you Ms Severson and NY Times for this article and for featuring it on the front page (at least in the online version).
The scale of climate change makes it easy to dismiss and ignore, but larvae infested raspberries bring it all too close to home. Who knew? Well, scientists did, and now everyone reading the article. Sadly, it will take many years of similar direct connections between people and climate events before society wakes up and takes action -- and of course by then it will be too late. Sadder still, climate change is a solvable problem offering tremendous economic benefits right now -- but only a handful of people know that.
I urge the Times to continue these stories -- and to find imaginative ways to bring this global-scale far-off "mystery" into the everyday lives of everyday people. We have about ten years to get it right...
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@Thomas E Beach I think about the carbon time-bomb that's been under our feet for many millions of years. Homo Sapiens is not going to change course, now or ever. I wish there was some enjoyment to be had from from the wild rollercoaster ride before we are pitched into the abyss of extinction.
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@Thomas E Beach, thank you for reminding them to put this info on the front page....people have no idea what we are in for.
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Thanks – a very interesting article. Try writing a somewhat shortened version for a science news "paper" that teens read. That is the group which can think outside of politics!
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Agreed, Vinnie K. This article slimmed down for the teenage generation that can make change happen would be greatly appreciated.
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@Vinnie K,
If the teens can't read this article, maybe it will need to be converted to cartoons!
Honestly, there's nothing in this article that exceeds a sixth-grade reading level. That has always been the standard for newspaper journalism.
19