I keep looking back at 2014 and trying to figure out where its blockbuster numbers came from? There was even a quarter in 2014 where GDP topped 5%. How do we get back there?
4
@Tony Gamino
That was in the couple of years post-recession. Those quarters should have been 8-9% like in the post-early 1980s recession.
Obama suffocated what should have been a robust recovery but to be fair he didn't really know any better.
8
Half the country makes 30k or less 67% can not handle a $500 emergency, 45 million need food stamps to survive, the idea that the economy is good for anyone but the 1% is a sick joke.
23
@MDM
"...45 million need food stamps to survive..."
2016 numbers.
Food stamps are down 5.7 million since December 2016.
2
There’s certainly a lot of petty quarreling back and forth in these comments: Trump this, Obama that. But truly ask yourselves – even with everything that may be going well for our economy, how many of us readers are at least a tad mortified with the behavior of our Commander-in-Chief, our toady U.S. senators and our retrograde standing in the world? Are we entirely better off? So many politicians; so little integrity.
10
It's become clear why there is the constant drumbeat of 'impeachment, impeachment, impeachment, impeachment' from Democrats. They are terrified they will not be able to suppress the news that Trump's economy is successful.
72
Why is it becoming easier to be morally bankrupt?
48
@Matt Williams A stronger economy didn’t stop R’s from impeaching Clinton. Trump doesn’t get a pass on his perfidy because of good 1st quarter growth. If 2nd q gdp drops, can we proceed?
63
@Matt Williams
With all due respect, you forget to take into consideration the success of a nation's economy doesn't only lie in how much it enrichens the wealthy elite, which by the way just happens to consist of Donald Trump, his clan, and a hand-picked administration content to live the good life at taxpayer's expense.
Sooner or later the bill will come due, and THAT is what should "terrify" Americans.
19
Great news for President Trump and America, terrible news for Democrats!
10
If it's the economy stupid, Trump is doing well despite his annoying rhetoric often. Democrats should focus on issues or they'll lose big time in 2020.
6
I’m sure I’ll see that bump in my just-scraping-by adjunct professor salary any day now...
6
As far as I'm concerned, it doesn't matter how much the GDP has grown by!
As far as I'm concerned, these are just a Bunch of Numbers & Statistics, that are Truly Irrelevant!!
As far as I'm concerned, I've NEVER seen it this BAD!!!
3
Out-of-control government deficit-spending is not real economic growth --- it's a temporary sugar high that blowing up the national debt to record levels. "And the economy is, in fact, expanding pretty fast –- but not necessarily for the reasons Trump said it would. The president promised to squeeze more American growth out of businesses and foreigners. Instead it’s the government, deploying its balance sheet via deficit-spending, that’s doing the work."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-21/what-drives-growth-under-trumponomics-looks-like-debt-so-far
6
Why isn’t anyone talking about the trillions of dollars worth of debt our government keeps increasing???? Consumers might be consuming but with a very weak dollar backed by the highest levels of debt.
2
why should we believe these numbers put out by administration run by a corrupt "president"?
4
A rising economy with record company profits but stagnant wages of two and three percent is hardly an election winner. And as for brainless Trump, he has had no part in the improvement. He's just riding its coat tails.
1
Believe him? No way. He always openly doubted Obama’s jobs numbers...who can/should believe him now? No one.
1
It is too bad that the majority of those making comments are not CPAs for if they were it would be pointed out that this nation is borrowing in excess of $1 trillion dollars this year and that will make up around 4.5% of the GDP. I hate to tell you but this is not good!
3
National economies are incredibly complex things and it's just about impossible to attribute any characteristic of an economy to just one cause--there's no guarantee that Trump's economic policies are THE cause of the economic acceleration of the last couple of years, but, on the other hand, the possibility can't be dismissed.
Further, national economies are mathematically chaotic, i.e., they exhibit "sensitive dependence on initial conditions," where the state at any moment is the "initial condition" for all subsequent moments, i.e., if an economic butterfly so much as flaps its wings, it really can affect the entire economy. All of which is to say that it would be unwise for the Democrats, if they win in 2020, to make many, if any, changes to Trump's economic policies. They seem to be working; leave them alone--it it would be incredibly easy to break the fragile economy.
Enter the herd of Democratic economic ignoramuses who want to make not just butterfly perturbations to the economy, but herd-of-donkeys perturbations like 70% marginal tax rates and all the rest of the nuttiness. Not that I've any love for Democrats--or, for that matter, Republicans--but the Democratic Party would be wise to sideline the punitive-taxers, the outrageous over-spenders, the over-regulating socialists, and every other sort of nut who thinks governments can control economies. They can't. Non-linear dynamical systems can't be controlled, and that's what economies are.
1
Not to rain on the parade, but does anyone else have just a wee bit of doubt about a shockingly good number coming out of Wilbur Ross' Commerce Department? The Wilbur Ross who, with a straight face, tells Congress and Court that he's added the citizenship question to the 2020 Census in order to "better enforce the Voting Rights Act?" And, more generally a president and administration that has spewed so many lies of all sizes that the trackers have lost count?
The Mueller Report exposed Trump as an arm-twister without a conscience. While some underlings may have disobeyed his demands, others did not. And adding a percent to the growth rate can be rationalized as a victimless crime (isn't everyone happier for it?), if crime at all.
So shouldn't the media and, more importantly, the Congress take Commerce Department miracles with a shaker of salt? If anything warrants congressional investigation it's the hat out of which - hey, presto! - Wilbur Ross is pulling numbers that, especially in light of global economic patterns, make no sense and are simply too good, and too politically convenient for The Boss, to be simply accepted as true.
1
so the Fed can raise interest rates now?
1
As many have noted, the real economic picture on the ground is a bit different than the rosy one portrayed in this article. Scroll down a bit and you will see another article citing the fact that Wisconsin dairy farms are in peril thanks to this president and his misbegotten trade wars. But articles describing what's really happening to real people, and what the long term effects of massive deficits, bankrupt farmers, rising medical costs, etc. are being given less attention, than numbers touting a "great economy" exceeding expectations. And let's be very honest here. Our country is on shaky economic ground for a number of reasons not being addressed. And the way this administration might possibly address them should scare us all!
1
The key words in this article are "it is now all but certain that the decade-long expansion will become the longest on record later this year."
So Trump has been in office for two years. That means eight years of economic expansion occurred on the last president's watch. We might as well give the last president credit for an excelsior economy that started on his watch. Trump, as usual, will take credit, for the sun rising on cloudless days.
2
If you give Donald Trump credit for this growth, you just don't understand the complexity of GDP. The "headline" number for GDP growth is not a measure of well-being for most people. And, perhaps we should give credit to the underlying strength of the U.S. economy - despite Trump's trade, tax and labor policies. Corporate profits do not equate to a better standard of living for all.
2
I am not an economist but I just don't believe the numbers. When you add the government shutdown to disappointing earnings by companies such as Exxon, Intel, IBM, 3M, Bank of New York, etc. and diminished consumer spending they just don't add up. Is it possible the Department of Commerce is cooking the books for Trump's benefit?
It offers America a lift; not just Trump a lift
Many keep predicting a slowdown, and an end to the perceived benefits of deregulation and tax cuts.
Capitalism ain’t perfect but it’s way better than any alternative
8
We should be very sceptical of this figure. It just doesn't ring true.
2
So the growth of consumer spending, housing and business investment all decelerated from 2.6% in the Oct-Dec quarter to 1.3% growth in the Jan-Mar quarter? Good grief these account for over 80% of the economy and this is the weakest showing since 2013?
So the factors that puffed up the overall GDP to 3.2% came from businesses piling up unsold inventory and slashing imports? Yes, both inventory growth (even if unwanted) and reduced imports (trade war?) are considered positive factors in GDP composition.
This is most troubling. The headline should not be GDP exceeded expectations, but final private sales continue to decelerate while the much promised business investment is fading fast in spite of the huge tax cuts. The rise in inventory could mean reduced manufacturing activity in the Apr-Jun quarter. And the housing market continues to reflect weakening demand despite low mortgage rates.
2
Hmm, "growth" of 3.2%. in a $19 trillion economy. The Federal government is pumping more than that into the economy, by means of deficit spending. The deficit for the first half of fiscal 2019 (Oct 2018-Mar 2019) was $691 billion, far higher than "predicted" by the government. Even the Congressional Budget Office predicted "only" a $900 billion deficit in fiscal 2019. Will it really reach $1.4 trillion, as the first six months imply? That would be about 7% of GDP, more than double the supposed "growth" in our GDP. Perhaps worth remembering that European Union countries are held to a 3% limit on deficits, and that the US government has never run a deficit of this size in a period of peacetime prosperity. Trump is using the same techniques he applied in business: borrow to create the image of success, and then leave the bills to others. Much of the deficit comes from reduced government income: personal income tax revenues declined about 2%, while corporate taxes - already at historical lows as a share of government revenue - declined 10%. Given the structure of the 2017 tax bill's cuts, we know who got most of the money - those who own capital. Unsurprisingly, this capital has driven a rise in share prices. The GAO's April 2019 report, based on fiscal 2018 (and on an underestimate of the 2019 deficit) states "The federal government's current fiscal path is unsustainable." Current GDP growth is a cruel illusion.
2
America is not a business.
The President of the United States is not a businessman.
America is a nation state.
Donald Trump is no businessman.
Donald Trump inherited 295 streams of income from his daddy while playing a businessman on reality TV and bankrupting or failing in every business venture he tried on his own. Real estate is subsidized by Uncle Sam.
Donald Trump has no relevant governing nor political experience at any level.
3
RealityCheck dont be fooled about numbers the total job market for jobs pay living wage shrinking as 400000 bombers retire every month. Replaced with part time jobs dont pay for health care an zero chance of raise.
2
I like the new “normal”...
12
The Trump economy rocks.
10
I have never read so much sniveling in anyone place in my life. Pathetic. I have so much less than half or more of the whiners here yet mange to save a live for the future and lead an enjoyable life. But then I understand that you can't have everything and there is no reason you should. I grew up living a spartan life and have never changed the behaviors that ingrained. Decide what is most important to you. Make sacrifices. Offer something in return if you hope to earn more.
11
Trump promised us 6% after the Trump tax cuts were foisted upon the middle, working and unemployed classes in this country. He even had OMB back it up with fake numbers! I want my 6%, Trump. Where is my 6% economic growth, Trump? Inquiring Minds Want to Know!
@Jan N
"Trump promised us 6%..."
Hyperbole is a prime requisite of great leaders.
Believe nothing that comes from the Trump Administration.
4
I don't understand how the economy can be described as good, when we are a million dollars in debt. Can we say that a family drowning in debt to finance a beautiful home, expensive cars, private school tuition and country club memberships is wealthy in reality because they have all the trappings, but owe more than their income?
1
@On the Other Hand
Some people feel driven to spend every penny available, some people save.
Family real estate wealth is up $2.3 trillion since quarter four of 2016 to $15.5 trillion an all-time record.
Total family wealth is up $13 trillion to $108 trillion since Q4 of 2016.
5
There seems to be confusion amongst some of the readers commenting about what the GDP measures. GDP tells us the market value of goods and services produced within a given time in a given country (in this case, the U.S.). It’s a very important measurement about a country’s economy, but it does not reflect the cost of living, debts, etc. — those factors are measured separately, elsewhere. Also important to note is that the GDP Nominal doesn’t reflect differences in cost of living or inflation between countries when calculating, so in order to reflect those factors we need to look at the GDP per capita PPP (purchasing power parity) rather than the GDP Nominal.
3
@Erin Miller
GDP real growth Quarter 1? 3.2%
GDP real growth last four quarters? 3.21%
GDP real growth last four quarters? $680 billion
GDP real growth in the Eurozone (18 countries accepting the Euro)? 1.2% or $210 billion in 2018
2
Oh great! Can’t wait to see the new Forbes rankings of the top billionaires- the only ones who benefit from the “economic growth”.
2
@Ted
"...the only ones who benefit from the "economic growth"."
Maybe, maybe not.
In 2018, combined total employment of Blacks and Hispanics set ten all-time records driving their unemployment rates to the lowest ever recorded in records kept since 1970 and to their highest degree of equality ever.
10
@Ted,
Forbes doesn’t include dictators, if they did the top ten would be all dictators.
Meanwhile, my town is losing businesses all over the place. The few we are gaining are not going to make up for the job losses of the ones that are shutting down. The new Starbucks or the new bank isn't going to replace the jobs lost at the Shopko or Ace Hardware for instance. I'm seeing an economic downturn here that started last December with the announcements of those stores going down and they aren't the only ones, they are just the biggest ones. So now the only real options for shopping are Walmart and thrift shops/second-hand stores. It doesn't bode well for my town.
I live in a college town too which makes this trend doubly troubling.
Rents and housing costs are sky high and wages are NOT keeping up.
It wasn't long ago that I thought my 40k a year was a decent living, but now know that there is no way I could even afford to buy a low-end home in this town.
4
@quantum. You can thank Big Government socialism practiced in Washington state
2
President Trump said he would improve the economy if he was elected. Another promise fulfilled. If this continues, he will be reelected. Let's hope the economy stays robust for the sake of America no matter how one feels about our president.
19
One of the many problems with the Trump administration is the very singular, short-run focus it's had with respect to the economy. If July could potentially mark this time period as the longest economic expansion in history, why are we still running record budget deficits and having a president calling for the Fed to help the economy some more with Quantitative Easing? Trump has been scarily fanatical with these economic scorecards that he's willing to sacrifice our country's long-term well-being for his own sick delight. Sadly, it seems like many members of the U.S. populace just keep buying what this man is selling to them.
3
Does the Trump administration get any credit for this?
9
William Barr tells us no collusion no obstruction, Kristjen Nielsen tells us no child separation at the border and Donal Trump tells us not to believe what we see or read. Why should we believe the GDP number they spit out?
2
It is tough to evaluate this without the context of population growth rate. If the population were growing at a 4% rate, for example, a 3.2% annual GDP growth rate would mean that Americans were, on average, getting poorer. (We aren't growing at 4%, of course, but closer to 0.7%, but leaving out the population growth overstates the per-capita growth.)
As others have noted, GDP is a pretty bad measure of quality of life, even if we stick to pure materialism. Our health care system leads to a lot of GDP growth (since it is so expensive), but does not make people better off than Singapore, which spends only about 1/4 as much, as a percentage of GDP.
2
Add me to those wondering about the reliability of findings coming from an agency that is part of the Trump kleptocracy, led by a man who emits lies at the rate of 10/day. It's similar to the EPA, who can no longer be trusted to issue valid statements that substances in our air, water, and soil are not threats to human health. This question sounds like a good one for Paul Krugman!
3
@backfull
"...lies at the rate of 10 per day..."
No hyperbole, try facts:
1 Economic growth in 2018 $680 billion versus $488 billion in 2016
2 Full-time jobs up 3.1 million in 2018, 200% of the 1.56 million increase in 2016
3 Manufacturing jobs up 460,000 under Trump 2016? Down 7,000
4 Total job openings 6.8 million up 36% from 2016’s peak 5.0 million jobs
5 Unemployed 6.5 million in 2018 versus 7.5 million in 2016
6 Stock market: $32 trillion, up $8 trillion since the 2016
7 Mortgage delinquency rate down 26% from 2016
10 Combined Black and Hispanic jobs set ten all-time records in 2018 at higher wages than in 2016
11 Consumer confidence highest in 20 years, up sharply from 2015 and 2016.
12 Unemployment 3.8% lowest since 1969.
13 Initial Public Offerings up 250% from 2016 to $46.8 billion in 2018
14 Real disposable personal income up $597 billion in 2018 versus $244 billion in 2016
15 Total wealth $108 trillion up $13 trillion since the 2016 election.
16 Business investment growth up $334 billion in 2018 versus $52 in 2016
17 Total federal revenues increased 3% from 2016 to 2018 after negative 1% in 2016
18 Adults with $400 to cover an emergency: 2016? 137 million. 2017? 147 million, 7% increase.
19 Wage & salaries up $390 billion in 2018. 2016? $255
20 1.6% inflation in 2018
21 4.7 million have escaped food stamp welfare since December 2016
22 Murder down 6.3% since Dec 2016
23 Debt service on federal debt is 1.6%, less than half of peak
8
@John Huppenthal this is the best economy in the past 50+ years and one of the most geo-politically stable 2-3 years for the USA during my entire life. Good times. If someone can’t make a good living in this economy they are likely lazy and incompetent. It doesn’t get much better than this.
8
The so called great economy, fueled by Trump's massive tax cuts for the wealthy and elimination of environmental regulations, will come back to haunt us.
5
Haunt us? It's already here.
1
@Kaari nonsense. Innovation from free enterprise is helping us do more with less. Look at the advances in self-driving electric vehicles, and battery technology. Deregulation allows companies to focus more on delivering value rather than onerous and often meaningless compliance activities.
5
@Eric Those "compliance activities" are not so meaningless to those who know something about basic ecology. One of Trump's first executive orders in 2017 was to allow coal companies to dump their waste into our lakes and steams. Was prior prohibition of such practices "meaningless compliance activities"?
Real GDP by quarter from June 2014 to June 2015 ranged from 2.6% to 3.81%, when Obama was president. So this quarter’s GDP of 3.4% is not remarkable and does not signify a trend. It will be revised in the next month or so, and probably down. The full year’s GDP will be more important.
6
@Don
"The full year's GDP will be more important."
Yes indeed.
First quarter 2017 to first quarter 2018 GDP growth? A full year's growth:
3.21%
3
I'm happy for the .1%
7
@Blue in Green
"I'm happy for the .1%"
Me too but maybe I am also happy for the 5.6 million people who have obtained full-time jobs since December 2016.
9
From NYT article:
Mr. Trump and his allies had been sharply critical of the Fed’s rate hikes. The president has said he will nominate one such ally, Stephen Moore, to fill an opening at the Fed. On Friday, Mr. Moore, an informal economic adviser to Mr. Trump, said the new growth figure made him feel “100 percent” vindicated in his criticisms.
“Thank God the Fed listened to me,” Mr. Moore said."
Yet another Trump mouthpiece with a God complex.
2
Then why can't I find a job in my field? I keep on hearing how IT departments can't find people. We're out here. We may not have every little skill you want but we're willing to work for real money and benefits. Oh, that's the catch. We want real money in return for real work which includes the skills we've honed over the last decade or more. But employers don't want to pay. That goes for other fields too.
The economy may be doing well but for many of us our personal economy is getting worse by the day. No job, no pay, no money to spend. Thank you.
P.S. Would appreciate the email telling me my comment has been posted. Your system has been failing at that lately.
4/26/2019 7:27pm
9
@hen3ry and you’re very lucky to be living in one of the most vibrant job markets in the country. Imagine how aging tech workers in Arkansas feel.
4
@hen3ry if you are struggling to find good work in this economy the problem lies with you not the economy. I suspect you are underestimating the importance of some of the “little skills” you mention. If you don’t have marketable skills get them. Every employer I know is struggling to find competent staff who have skills necessary to do the tasks at hand. This is about the strongest job market you will ever see. If you are struggling now, I’d hate to see what will happen to you the next time there’s a recession.
1
Rumors? It was a steady drumbeat of dire prognostications, on these pages and others, about Trump’s economic agenda; topped with smug scoffs about unrealistic growth. For a group of ostensibly intelligent and competent people, you economists are wrong a startling amount of the time. I’m no fan of the historic and national disgrace that is Trump and his circle of sycophantic fools we call an administration, but these numbers and these trends should prompt some serious soul searching about your basic understanding of reality in addition to your so-called objectivity.
12
The earlier version of this article used the word 'Rumors' instead of 'Reports' in the first line.
1
I got mine!
The attitude of some Americans. Sad.
5
@C. Reyes
Well maybe some of us are watching in appreciation as some needy people obtain jobs:
1. 13 million discouraged workers sitting at home degenerating into drug addicts;
2. 75 million dissatisfied and unproductive workers who want a better job and a better life;
3. 4.5 million released jail and prison inmates on parole and probation;
4. 10 million college students who are drifting and their 1.5 million professors;
5. 5 million part-time workers who want full-time jobs?
6. the 200 million illegal aliens organizing their trip to the U.S?
In 2018, a record 3.5 million employees quit and went to more satisfactory and higher paying jobs.
Since 2016, 5.6 million people have obtained full-time jobs. By comparison, only 1.56 million obtained full-time jobs in 2016, less than 1/3 that pace.
6
Wait a minute, I thought Krugman said Trump would ruin the US economy on election night 2016?? Where is he now? Uh, answer please...
19
@DanielMarcMD He is still an awful, mediocre man of poor character who degrades the nation and drags its reputation through the mud on a daily basis. But DanielMarcMD is fine so alright then!
4
Perhaps we can now get all those whiny people in middle America to stop looking to Washington for relief from their plight. They have the best economy ever, so stuff it. I know that I for one will easily ignore the Trump voters who say their world is being destroyed. It's obvious that they just don't have what it takes to succeed in the US.
4
There are two and three "Americas". The rich got richer and the poor and middle class got poorer. I look at gas prices, dairy prices - and know darned well we are in for a big fat "no" from middle class people. We know we have to say "no" from buying "extras". Who's economy is the reporting reflecting? It's the "industrials" right? The investor class, right? Does NBC, CBS, ABC every talk about ground-level escalating costs for food, gas, insurance, municipal water, township taxes, state taxes...?
5
@CharleyBuck
"The poor and middle class got poorer."
Maybe not.
In 2018, the median household income went up to $62,400.
By comparison, the Eurozone countries are at $39,600.
5
The Democrats send me monthly letters asking for money. I throw them out because they are failing to address the issues that will win the next election. Why haven't they taken a stand against the abuse of this administration? They are not educating the average voter with the facts. We have 20 candidates that all blend together with their platitudes. I am afraid that Trump will win again. Silly extreme left—so-called "progressive" ideas are not going to win votes. The Democrats have to show what Trump has taken away from all of us. Also, they have to show how they are going to remedy the issues with hard facts.
8
The greatest economy in history of mankind! Trump proclaims.
Then where's the money??? Certainly not on Main St. We still can't afford healthcare. Or college for our kids. And if the fat cats have so much money, why is the national debt growing like there's no tomorrow?
4
@JimmySerious funny examples you use - the two industries that have the most government meddling: healthcare and education. These two industries have seen inflation far higher than the CPI-U. Has it occurred to you that perhaps government itself is the problem.
3
I love how these “indicators” are supposed to mean anything to an ordinary person. If we are in trickle down heaven, then where is the utopia that we’ve all been promised? Still waiting for my cup to runneth over. Any day now...
3
10 year recovery. Yes because 10 years ago, every body knew who was going to be president now.
The wages are still stagnant, so who's winning? Definitely not the ninetynine percent....
5
@Kim
"...wages are still stagnant..."
Maybe on some absolute scale but not by comparison with the past.
In 2018, real wages went up faster than any year since 2007.
5
So the 1% is getting fatter at a faster rate.
5
Has anyone taken a look at the changes on the BLS site? Does anyone trust any numbers that come out of this administration? Fool me once... shame on me... fool me twice... shame on the voters.
Who agitates the marionnettes?
Finally, peering thru the façade that defines U.S. GDP "growth" since that 3.2% doesn't account for absolute "spend" and so, when stripping out the "front loading" of more inventories which won't repeat this quarter, less imports, and less gov't spend, even taking out healthcare insurance private costs, the anemic 1.3% "private spend" segment 1st/qtr is not only revealing, its concerning.
This 1.3% dropped from 2.4% in 4th qtr...which extends to business investment that hasn't recovered...hence the point of further margin erosion, lower "deals" spreading for all those consumer direct purchases. Inflation is more in check with the private spend segment...but no, we have to include all that marble fat lapped on our "real" GDP quarterly growth. Anyone got butter?
I'm really happy about this growth news. Not any one person gets credit, everyone does, a little pun.
I did however wonder if the Chinese may have played a part by ramping up their output for growth there and for us to consume showing the big jump.
The really good news about this is that the rate of growth far exceeds the rate of population growth here, citing figures of population increase of 0.6% from 2017 to 2018 versus economicv growth of 3.2%. That means more welth for everyone, BUT, who is everyone as many have cited the decline of middle class pay growth. This doesn't look good now.
1
Given the Federal government shutdown, I am having a hard time believing this estimate. We will see what happens when it was revised. I am reminded of the overly optimistic estimates prior to the November election which were then lowered after the election was over.
2
All of the commentators are going to have a tough time when they will see Q2 in 2019. Q2 is always much better gdp growth.
5
I read a number of people talking about how well the economy is doing - it is costing us 2 trillion dollars - so I don’t want to hear about the artificial spike in the economy that the middle class will eventually have to pay back so the rich can get their money upfront and thereafter every year. Regular folk can’t afford to buy politicians via lobbyist and PAC’s and advertisements on TV.
6
The economy may be good, however, the prices are skyrocketing at the gas pump and the grocery store.
2
3.2% growth when running $1T a year deficits? We are mortgaging our future. What happens when growth slows? $2T a year deficits?
2
Gas is over $4/gallon in California. That’s enough to knock us into recession
2
Yeah, we have high gas taxes in NY too.
2
@Charlie
See all your gas guzzlers and buy electric
1
Just like everything in the Trump administration, one must check the truthfulness of this report. My guess is the books have been cooked. I only see pain and misery in my community. Tax increases on low and middle classes has destroyed economic security. Homelessness has exploded. Foreclosures are up. The homes on the market are being gobbled up by predatory corporate land-grabbing landlords who then gouge renters. Gas prices are through the roof. Food prices have skyrocketed. The cost of clothing, tuition, autos, healthcare, etc. are all steeply rising. You get the point... This report is not real.
8
@Think
"Tax increases on low and middle classes..."
In 2017, Congress reduced personal income taxes for all families of four making $53,000 or less to zero.
Who is increasing the taxes in your community? Which state? Which city?
2
Is this really good news? Since these growth figures are so much higher than expected, does anyone else beside me wonder if the data issued by this government is accurate? This administration lies about everything. Should we just accept the data they provide?
10
@Kate
They’ll revise the numbers down over a holiday weekend when no one is paying attention.
1
….and gasoline is $3.00 a gallon, my pay raise was 0.5% last year , my three kids pay student loans with interest between 4-7.5 % and the roads in my town have more potholes than ever. So why am I excited about this economy?
14
I sure hope the Democrats come to their senses and nominate a pro-business centrist. The interventionism proposed by candidates like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders is dangerous and destructive - and I will not vote for someone proposing such things. Am I going to be forced to vote for Trump? I hope not. Medicare for all is a good Democrat idea, the rest of the ideas being proposed are nonsense. I will await to see who arises from the fray but I am not interested in turning back the economic tide.
9
@Dave:
Which data set(s) do you use to make your determinations?
2
We need Trump for another term. He may not be morally ideal person that the Democrats pretend they are. He may not be talking about America's responsibility to save humankind or advocating or encouraging free for all immigration policies, He may not be soft on families who cross illegally hoping that eventually the humanity amongst many Americans will allow them to stay in spite of illegality of their actions, He may not be welcoming asylum seekers (both legitimate and otherwise) with open arms, He may not be playing the minority religious or ethnic card like pseudo progressives like Ilhan Omar and others to win elections. But he has proven that with all his faults and perceived moral degradation, he has at least tried and delivered far better results for Americans than any other phony humanist within Democratic or Republican party. People get the leaders they deserve. Trump's presidency is a product of its time and a lot many Americans feel that they need a bully who could deliver over phony saints who hide their cheapness under their high talks and deliver nothing. I consider Trump's policies on stopping illegal immigration, economy, Trade, etc. as sincere efforts which may have delivered mixed results. Not the failure but low aim is a crime. At Least Trump aimed high in spite of the Democrats ganging up to delegitimize his election. Indeed history will jude the present Democratic party as being responsible for weakening our democracy, along with their favorite Russians.
20
@Resident I couldn't disagree with you more.
4
Did wages increase, too?
And if DT is responsible for the growth, what specifically did he do? If you say "deregulation," name the regulations he got rid of, and show causation or correlation between growth and getting rid of named regulations.
Before piling on, remember, these are questions all adult Americans should be asking of any POTUS.
I'll check back for serious answers.
5
@Valerie
"Did wages increase too?"
We don't have wage growth for the first quarter yet. However wage growth in 2018 was the highest since 2007.
January 2018 to January 2019 personal income growth? $764 billion, $580 billion after inflation.
5
Half the country is struggling. The top 25% are doing well. The 1% is doing excellent.
10
Turns out things aren't so bad.
GDP is up. Minimum wage increases in high COL states have helped there without burdening low COL states with a uniform federal minimum.
And turns out income inequality isn't increasing after all:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/is-increasing-income-inequality-a-myth
13
Imagine that...reducing regulations and focusing on growth actually work. Bernie Sanders undoubtedly will have a sarcastic and nuanced reply for this, but the truth is that his economic belief system is false and he will pay the price as he runs for president.....a disaster for Americans if he should win.
AOC is salivating at destroying this good economy.....
16
@JAC:
Which regulations specifically were reduced, and which data show that the reduction of those specific regulations is cause for the growth?
6
You want proof. Read the article again and try to understand....,the economy and stock market are doing great and not by accident. Reduced regulations give businesses confidence to expand. Do your own homework and google it....
7
Here are the quarterly growth numbers under Obama:
2009 2 -0.54747
2009 3 1.4644
2009 4 4.4665
2010 1 1.548
2010 2 3.7394
2010 3 2.9816
2010 4 2.0228
2011 1 0.9583
2011 2 2.8907
2011 3 0.111
2011 4 4.7184
2012 1 3.1689
2012 2 1.7319
2012 3 0.541
2012 4 0.4563
2013 1 3.59
2013 2 0.4945
2013 3 3.1707
2013 4 3.2314
2014 1 1.0033
2014 2 5.1106
2014 3 4.924
2014 4 1.9008
2015 1 3.3317
2015 2 3.3395
2015 3 0.9639
2015 4 0.4002
2016 1 1.5476
2016 2 2.2817
2016 3 1.9254
2016 4 1.7618
2017 1 1.785
Here are the quarterly growth numbers under Trump:
2017 2 2.9917
2017 3 2.8233
2017 4 2.2912
2018 1 2.2176
2018 2 4.1588
2018 3 3.356
2018 4 2.2
2019 1 3.2
Under Obama:
3% or better 10 quarters
4% or better 4 quarters
5% or better 1 quarter
Under Trump:
3% or better 3
4% or better 1
5% or better 0
Thanks Barack. Good job.
22
Why don’t you try comparing their averages.
It’s obvious you have zero clue on what’s important in an economy.
4
@Crazy Me Nice! Please cite your data.
1
@Crazy Me
We don’t need your fake numbers. Full employment with coal jobs and fossil fuel equals climate disaster. Look at full employment in China and India with coal and fossil fuels. They ware masks 24/7 . Shame on you and your Trump supporters for bringing us closer to China and India demise with coal.
2
Two points- I'm skeptical of anything coming out of Wilbur Ross's Commerce Department. Secondly, they revised the 4th quarter downward from 2.6 to 2.2 months later, when no attention paid.
12
@Spucky50
I wouldn’t believe Wilber Ross even if his tongue was notarized.
2
Good news if it is true. But the Trump administration lies so much, how can you believe anything that comes out of the WH? Watch in six months the real growth rate will come out and it won't be so good.
13
So what does Krugman the "genius" who predicted the "worst recession since the Great Depression" have to say about that ?
27
Gosh, even with a GDP over 3%, a record-high stock market, and record-low unemployment, the commentary here is so cranky and pessimistic.
I'd hate to see your reactions when we actually do have a bad economy!
16
This is really fun to read. The leftist media hates, repeat hates to report the fact that economy continues to boom. Even when they do so, it is always coached in caveats and jaded terms. Of course under St. Obama, it was the opposite.
17
@Robert Maybe, just maybe ,you are smart enough to realize both parties exercise the same tribalism...remember trump saying the positive economy numbers were lies?
3
Paul Krugman said Trump would send us into a major Recession and collapse of the economy, watched him say it, you can too. Wow so much for a Nobel Prize for economics. Fake news maybe? What happened to the recession? My 401k up 15%, thank you President Trump, even Bernie is making money to pay off his 2nd home. How many homes to you all have?
19
Dear Republicans read article thoroughly it says
"The report indicates that the 10-year recovery retains momentum"
It doesn't say 2 years , it says 10 years.
Take out that Fox TV glasses, this is NYT.
10
@su By accounts of the Fed itself, the "Obama recovery" was the weakest ever.
It is very easy to get a "recovery" when the economy has collapsed just BEFORE you take things over !
5
Another vote for Donald... Wake up, people...!
4
Economy is resisting Trump's all negative attack, Fed reserve, Tariffs etc.
This is the first president he succeed to separate him self from the Economy's good effect on presidency.
Previously it was , Economy stupid,
now Economy and Stupid.
Like saying McGahn lied to Mueller, seriously bro- you want to go down that road.
Our economic model has the ideology of cancer cells: growth for the sake of growth, parasitic, ruinous.
Economic activity is based on consuming, polluting, plundering the finite biosphere.
The more economic growth, the more we kill our only living planet.
Check out Dr. Guy McPherson for the truth about capitalism, the economy, and the future of life on this planet.
https://guymcpherson.com/
3
@Steve Davies
"...ideology...growth for the sake of growth..."
Maybe, but maybe we want growth for the better lives it can produce for the:
1. 13 million discouraged workers sitting at home degenerating into drug addiction, alcolholism and obesity;
2. 75 million dissatisfied and unproductive workers who want a better job and a better life;
3. 4.5 million released jail and prison inmates on parole and probation;
4. 10 million college students who are drifting and their 1.5 million professors;
5. 5 million part-time workers who want full-time jobs;
6. the 200 million illegal aliens organizing their trip to the U.S?
In 2018, 3.5 million people quit to move to better paying and more satisfying jobs.
All of these are good things, not worthy of the disgust you express.
1
I don't care if this economy is because of Trump or Pelosi or the Easter Bunny.
To our elected officials - please do not change anything. This economy is phenomenal.
13
And Obama is sitting at home wondering how he can take credit.
6
Same old blah blah blah from the pundits while the rest of us are trying to figure out how to pay our medical bills.
10
A bad news day at the NYT.
13
Thank you President Obama!!
6
Flabbergasted by people who say they don't care if Trump is a traitor and a crook as long as the economy stays afloat. I bet these people would gladly take a bag of money from Putin in exchange for their own country. Pathetic.
5
And in the bigger picture, out of my 5 siblings ages 24-36 (divorced and remarried parents) only one is having children. Why? They cannot afford it.
6
Thank you for interviewing a woman. Please continue to identify and interview more diverse sources.
1
Look economy is good, people are not happy except top 1%.
Just imagine what was the nightmare of 2007-8.
Saddest part of the story is what is not written. That is most people here are disappointed with the great Economic report. Those people would rather see a recession. Ignoring the hardship a recession would create for millions of poor Americans out of Trump hatred, a downturn in the economy is their preference. That is sad.
16
There was once a Republican president , G.H.Bush , He raised to taxes because it must be done. following decade American economy catapulted.
So Trump already took over recovering economy, bud add the sugar rush ( Tax cut) so fay that never work long time.
2
@su - I believe the dot com explosion was the driver of the economy, not the tax increase.
4
@Midwest Josh
No, Tax increase, it is historical fact anymore.
As a very wise old farmer once told me -
The rooster takes credit for the sunrise, but that doesn't mean he made it come up.
13
Economy is good and growing since Obama reverse the recession.
However details are quite different.
In US 4-5 company holds 5 trillion value (apple, face book etc.)
entire GDP 21 trillion.
The issue money cannot find way to workers for many reasons. that is also deep discussion.
So Yes economy fine , It was with Obama too.
But Money is pooling at top extensively.
Trump has no intention to make some effort to find solution this problem.
That si all.
7
Mea culpa Krugman?
Krugman has written articles smiley suggesting the economy easier rolling over. He seemed to be hoping for that so Trump looks bad.
Wrong call, on the economy.
And so wrong of him to hope for our economy’s demise.
14
@Joe Yoh, Krugman has been spot on about the economy since 2008. I would not bet against him. And insinuating "he hopes for our economy's demise" is a dishonest and slanderous assumption.
3
Analyzing the numbers reveals that adjusting for accelerated shipments ahead of the Trump-induced trade war with China, along with the build-up of inventories (which are also taxed with the Trump-induced trade war), a more accurate number is LESS THAN TWO PERCENT GDP.
3
Whatever you need to tell yourself
Cognitive dissonance won’t let our human brains accept information that doesn’t confirm our beliefs and hopes
Strong GDP continues
7
And just as the economy is breaking all records in the longest sustained period of economic and employment growth, Democrats at pitching Socialism.
Priceless.
16
@Baron95 - Call it what you will ("Western European democratic socialism" is accurate), Democrats are out pitching a version of capitalism that manages to distribute the wealth more evenly than it does currently, where it grossly favors the 1% at the expense of everyone else. Democrats are out pitching a government and economic system that finds a way to provide basic human rights to all, like affordable health care.
Other than increased stockholder profits, what are you out pitching? When does one's obsessive love for hyper-capitalism become an indictment of one's character? I think I know.
9
Very well said.
1
@dean bush
"...western European Democratic Socialism..."
U.S. Median household income $62,400
Eurozone Countries median household income $39,600
Jobs created since 1980?
U.S. 65%
Europe? less than 35%
Plus our new jobs had more $/hour and more hours per week.
We are selling economic opportunity.
U.S. growth in 2018? 3.1%
Eurozone growth? 1.2%
1
everyone's credit will run out eventually. Now go buy something!
4
whatever it grew it had nothing to do with Donald.
The part I've missed is where has he helped his core followers, you know, the little folks that were going to be 'tired of all the winning". You know, Tariff Man? start the coal plants up again, secure our borders from those immigrants taking away the jobs and murdering people, bring jobs back home and help the farmers, etc etc etc. Not to mention the fantastic healthcare. Not that he didn't try to work on it, he just wanted to rip it away.
I think if you were doing ok before he got in office, you'll continue. If not, don't look for a silver bullet to come along and magically make your life better.
8
This is all well and good - for somebody. It hasn't helped me.
All of my day to day living expenses continue to rise and I'm about as frugal a person you'd ever find.
A tiny tube of a leading brand of toothpaste is $7, a loaf of decent quality bread almost $5, and with an occasional desire for a tiny filet on the grill, @$25 a pound? Gave that up a long time ago. I don't know how anyone working two jobs at $11/Hr. makes ends meet. I guess that's why I see so many shopping for food at dollar stores that's low quality junk.
Maybe it's great for the well off who can go ahead and buy that 2nd or 3rd home. But with trump and his extremely low quality economic experts at the helm, it feels a lot like that warm breeze on a beautiful spring day that precedes a hellacious storm.
Because the bill for his profoundly stupid trillion dollar tax cut is in the mail and it's addressed to John Q Public.
14
@Deb, hard to take your comment seriously when 15 seconds of fact-checking shows that you can buy three tubes -- not one, three! -- of Colgate for less than five bucks at Walmart.
12
@Observer of the Zeitgeist - Just so happens Colgate for some reason irritates, but I'll go you one better. I believe you can still get Pepsodent for about a dollar. My point being that we're not a one size fits all populace, and our choices are more often than not determined by our resources. Meaning you must settle for as inferior product or do without. I guess I should be grateful to have that choice?
5
@Deb
No Deb, we are not a one size fits all populace, but you should know - and you would if you paid attention - that if you want the “large sizes” you have to pay for them, which means improving your life situation. The key ingredient is YOU, don’t wait for the silver bullet.
5
People in the US, especially tourists and visitors, are spending every dollar they can get their hands on, as fast as they can. Here, we see them from every corner of the world, every day. Best I can recall, forty years ago we called that inflation. Today, we say we're making enough money available so that everyone has enough... Can it get any better than this? Good luck!
1
@Andy Hain - I would suggest paying a visit to your neighboring towns in the Salinas Valley. The poverty rate in Salinas is 17.5%. One out of every 5 residents of Salinas lives in poverty.
Can it get any better than this?! Really....
3
@dean bush... and yet the Left coast Dems want to add to that Salinas population with illegal immigrants so they and the 17.5% can compete with each other for the scarce entry level jobs. In doing so, the Left coast Dems can justify their government social programs, grow their voting base and have a ready pool of folks who'll clean their houses for less than a market wage{ It's almost like a form of Munchausen syndrome by proxy). So, while Trump and co engage in policies to economically benefit all legal US residents, they are subverted by the Dems who, in their gated communities, don't care about and aren't impacted one iota by the misery in Salinas .
6
@dean bush
"Salinas lives in poverty..."
One out of 3 people in Salinas is foreign born and a large percentage work off the books.
Salinas is a farming community with perhaps the largest unemployment cycling in the nation, peaking out at over 10% after plunging to a rate close to the national average in the work season.
Salinas is a staging place for beginning the assimilation process.
Yes, they are poor by our standards but, coming from countries where the minimum wage is $2 per day, they feel rich.
GDP as an indicator of economic health of the nation (and that includes ALL it's people) is a poor metric to peddle.
Wage growth + CPI + unemployment + job growth are much better indicators for the 99% who are not part of the wealthy oligarchy of 1%ers. And in this regard.... it is spotty from state to state, because states with conservative legislatures and executive branches that have piled on with tax cuts for business and the wealthy and ignoring their working class voters have in fact moved backward in the last 2-4 years, or at best remained stagnant.
The middle class is being squeezed to death over the last couple of decades... and apparently nobody really cares... including middle class voters who voted a lying, money grubbing, deceiving, tyrant into the office of president.
13
All these caveats to the continuing growth in the economy are wearing thin. The GOP congress freed from trying to destroy Obama's presidency have gone whole hog in stimulating the economy. The new Democratic House seems fixated on attacking Trump for being a corrupt bigoted louse. They will not try to emulate the GOP and directly attack the economy to harm Trump. So it seems likely the country will get a ghastly 2nd Trump term if voters are primarily motivated by a growing economy.
4
I wonder if the grounding of the Boeing 737 Max jets with production continuing was a big factor in the growing inventories...
2
It is just one statistic and there are many other statistics out there. But there is no dispute that making 100 widgets in the last quarter is better than making less than 100. If you feel obliged to point out that there’s a lot more to the economy than making widgets, you are stating the obvious. You’re making an editorial page comment to hard news that is just what it is.
4
Gotta love an economy fueled on nothing but debt, low interest rates, and tax cuts for corporations which they have spent on stock buybacks, not wages.
Strap in when this house of cards finally falls.
14
Can we just admit that we really do not
understand economics ?
9
Why goes up must come down
It’s overdue
Should be just in time for the 2020 election cycle
4
GDP growth in 1941, 17.7%. 1942, 18.9%. 1943, 18.9%.
Continuing to say that a "great economy" by GDP growth means the country is doing well, ignoring all other context of what's actually happening to our country, is moronic.
2
Well we were fighting WW2 and Rosie the Riveter was producing war materials in mass. Not exactly a fair comparison for 2019...
6
"It's the economy stupid"
If it stays like this, Trump wins-end of story.
10
I'm smelling a rat... what's the bet that this number is erroneous?
7
Shopping sales (as the picture in the article) & max'ing out credit cards does not a consumer recovery make.
Are you just talking about the ones who carve out the profits?
Regular paychecks of regular people are flat.
Capitalism fails when there are no restraints on greed.
Wall Street is NOT the American people. And the recovery you talk about is smoke 'n mirrors.
3
Beware the calm before the storm.
The same thing was said in the lead up to the Great Recession of 2008 too... and see what happened?
What we have to hope for is that the Fed guides accurate policy toward the coming recession (it is coming.. only the exact timing is unknown.. given we have been on an economic growth cycle for more then a decade now) such that it is a more normal gentle landing as that will result in minimum damage and a shortened interval to a return to economic growth.
2
A measurable part of this growth has to come from businesses feeling confident to make moves knowing that the endless layers of new regulations that Obama layered on has now stopped.
9
It is funny that we use GDP growth as a measure of success, when 90 to 95% of that GDP growth just goes right into the pockets of the top 1%.
We're succeeding at one thing -- America is creating a hereditary aristocracy that would do 18th century England proud.
Our ancestors fought the Revolutionary War so the product of their hard work wouldn't just be sent back to England to build grand estates for Barons and Earls.
And now 230 years later, our democracy has been hijacked by the rich so that the product of our work mostly goes to build a jet set lifestyle for the 1 percent.
All that remains is for Trump and the Republican Congress to start handing out titles.
22
Your history is a little off. The impetus for the Revolutionary War was taxation without representation which I would say is the opposite of wealth redistribution by the government.
This is what happens when free enterprise is set free from stifling regulation and high taxes.
I support the President!
I support Trump!
America first, never last!
MAGA!
Thank you.
40
@Southern Boy, you can definitely fool some of the people all the time. Who ya gonna blame when your children are poisoned by the air they breathe and the water they drink because “stifling” regulations have been reversed. And who ya gonna call when you can’t afford your meds because big pharma is capitalism as its finest. And who ya gonna vote for when your job has been replaced by robots because the economy will grow faster if you are unemployed and no longer even looking for a job so you are no longer part of the unemployment stats. And which pothole will you sleep in because there is no longer a middle class to pay the taxes needed for infrastructure repair. Sheesh.
15
@Southern Boy
I do not support a man who lies as a matter of course.
Even if it means a few extra dollars in my pockets and millions more in the pockets of the wealthy.
I know. Crazy, right?
31
@Meadowlark Lemmy
Not so crazy. A majority of Americans voted for Hillary Clinton.
4
Republican Ponzi economics will initially work like a charm but in the long run, it will is bad for the country and people.
12
It's great to have growth, but we are not taking advantage of it. The bulk of profits are going to the 1%, but not the tax burden. Instead of phony tax cuts the all this deficit spending, we should be investing in infrastructure, paying down the deficit and making smart long term moves. We are repeating GWB paying for growth on the credit card and risky investments from the Banking Industry. Just like in 2007, this round will not end well. The Republicans are certainly no longer the party of fiscal responsiblity - haven't been since Reagan.
15
@Robert kennedy
Deficits dropped dramatically after the ambush tax cuts. From 415 billion in 2005, to 148 billion in 2007.
How is that possible with tax cuts?
Because tax cuts change behavior, and ignite growth.
It’s something liberals could never understand.
19
@Sports Medicine
'something liberals could never understand'
I hope divisive Trumpers will one day learn that constant bashing of their fellow Americans and people who are not Trumpers as 'liberals unable to understand' will cost them the 2020 election. (Turnabout is fair play, yes?)
With that said, would you explain the current skyrocketing deficit and debt please?
Without any partisan pokes.
12
@Sports Medicine Yes, yes, and then the deficit exploded off the chart in 2008 (and dropped precipitously during the next President's administration). It takes time for changes in the economy to work themselves through. While it may contribute, there are multiple factors explaining any movement of the curve. Regardless of the behavioral economics theories, the economy
is a long term game.
8
Recent, relatively speaking: Bush I leaves economy a mess. Clinton makes it better using fundamental right of center economic tools and theory. Bush II makes a second Bush mess and Obama makes it better using fundamental right of center economic tools, theory and people from Wall Street and the banking industry who caused the mess. Trump One who knows more than anyone about everything is in charge while the world waits for his next display of genius. All good things are his he claims and all errors, mistakes, and failures are everyone else's.
Some see a god, others a devil, or not at all.
Not devil or god, he will make America great again. No credit to those who did: the poor, the workers, the suffering middle class, the still oppressed Native Americans whose land we all stand on, the blacks whose contributions under first slavery and along with others wage slaves, women whose contributions are unnamed, unlimited, and the immigrants.
We know who they are: the indentured servant, the African slave, the women, the millions of immigrants (including grandpa Trump whose brothels kept Alaska warm, government supported public housing segregated, and, government funded housing for returning WW II vets involved in what some called shady deals), the millions of Irish and other immigrants who came to America and fought in the Civil War (as one example) while others claimed flat feet and heal spur disabilities to be excused from fighting for America in Vietnam. (See Trump and Cheney)
5
With all the policy shocks administered by Trump let alone the trade wars if the US economy is doing well it is due to the right recovery efforts invested during the Obama years that are bearing fruits now.
6
@Prof. Jai Prakash Sharma
Sure, and if the economy started tanking instead, you'd say this is ALL Trump's fault, and the efforts invested during the Obama years had nothing to do with it. Yes?
11
The economy is currently on sugar-binge high that is being fueled by record deficits and stock, house and apartment prices that are growing crazier by the day.
Meanwhile, while the nation has been watching Game of Thrones:
Mueller’s Report proved indecisive.
Trump has been promising pardons to people for breaking our laws.
Trump’s next appointment to the Supreme Court will give him a 6-3 majority there.
He is packing the lower courts with judges who are loyal to him.
There have been recent reports of armed militia on our Southern border who have assigned themselves the task of carrying out his wishes.
His 35-40% base continues to be wildly supportive of him.
His minions and satraps in the federal bureaucracies are spending
every day joyously tearing down the social and economic supports it took this country decades to build.
Foreign allies to this country who are essential to our defense and wellbeing are being turned into enemies of ours.
Efforts to get hold off his taxes and financial records will consume
months if not years.
He could soon be declaring national emergencies to gain editorial control over our news media.
It is not inconceivable that he could cancel or postpone the 2020 election and actually get away with it.
He is a mentally unstable man with immediate access to our nuclear codes.
Nero fiddled, while Rome burned.
The sounds now emanating from the White House are of a man in the midst of his 19th major nervous breakdown.
23
Want to make a quick and delicious pig roast?
Burn down the barn.
2
I would think fiscal conservatives would prefer to see the deficit close to zero or even a surplus with full employment and a reasonable economy....but no.
Huge deficits will boost the economy for a bit...but not long term.
1
...and imagine how much the economy will grow once James Holzhauer receives his Jeopardy winnings (over $1.2M as of now and still growing) and begins to filter it into the economy.
2
The Democrats are openly flirting with Socialism just as we are experiencing our best economy in 20 years.
Does anyone really think that’s a winning hand?
133
@TR88 Here is a graph showing the GDP since 1/1/00 which will so we are not experiencing our best economy in 20 years.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
46
@TR88.
Social Security and Medicare are socialism. We are not "flirting" with socialism, we are already bathing in it. We are already a socialist country, and have been for decades.
64
@TR88 Does your employer pay for healthcare, like most employers did 30-40 years ago? I mean, really pay for it, not just offer a supplemental bandaid plan that still leaves you paying $500 a month with a $10,000 deductible? Do you get annual raises that rise above inflation or have a COLA? Even vacations... do you get 4 weeks paid, exclusive of sick leave?
The economy might seem great, but this is not the economy of when I was growing up... I’d bet that if you asked most people about their jobs, they’d say, “I’m so lucky to have a job” and then mutter under their breaths, “ yeah, but I hate it and wish I could find something better.”
93
Good news - then why hasn't my pay gone up to match rising rent and grocery costs? Wife and I both work good jobs with combined income easily in six figures - why can't we afford a vacation?
Something is wrong.
212
@Nick
US wage growth hit a nine year high as we entered 2019
7
@SteveRR HA - yeah, from 12.50 per hour to 12.75 - eat up, kids. Plenty of cake!
49
@SteveRR
That's not hard to do when purchasing power of wages below the 75th percentile haven't budged for the last 40 years!
13
OK, Democrats, are you paying attention? Like it or not, many many people will ignore Trump's personal sleaziness because the economy is getting better and so is their life. What are you doing to counter this? Is your focus on investigations going to make a difference? Are you showing leadership that improves the lives of the person on the street? How do you answer the question "My life is getting better, why should I change leaders now?" Until you can show people, that your way is better in ways that will make a concrete difference in their life, you are in serious trouble.
119
@Bruce1253 Can you say with all certainty that most people's lives are getting better across the board? I wouldn't be so sure. Yes, the unemployment rate may be lower and the economy growth rate may be higher, but when you can't make ends meet all those numbers are just fluff. And I am pretty sure that many people got the shaft on their taxes this year. I have read numerous accounts of people who usually get a tax refund and this year they ended up owing money, without any changes to their income or circumstances. And quite frankly, to keep voting for Trump only because you personally are doing well, to turn a blind eye to all his transgressions, that is just deplorable.
63
@Bruce1253
GDP growth figures do NOT provide fair indication of economic growth for the masses. It is an indicator that largely favors the already wealthy 1%.
I seriously doubt that the blue collar Trump supporters are better off now then before he became president. Then again... blue collar conservatives are notorious for voting tribal and against their own interests, so nothing short of another great recession would in any way move their thinking.
A lot of voters who cross the isle to vote Trump in 2016 are more likely to not accept GDP growth as a trigger to vote for him again. He had done so many things to inflame peoples views of him in the last two years that center-right and center-left voters in many cases have a bad taste in their mouth with Trump.
But at the end of the day.. it matters who the Democrats choose as their presidential candidate, and the economy is not a factor in that thinking process any more then it ever is.
30
@Bruce1253
Who are you talking to? No one has received a decent raise unless you live on Wall Street. Gas is no less, food costs are higher, rents are exorbitant, and the purchase of a home requires two incomes, and more. More insecure employment does not equal a good economy for the vast majority of Americans. The "good economy" spin is not working anymore. It's far too stagnant for everyone. When you have tell people to "feel good," the preposterous nature of the claim is forgotten immediately.
62
So this is what happens when corporations have plenty of cash, but do not invest in people. Republicans are running at record budget deficit. This looks like an artificial stimulus.
Ask the little farmers in the Midwest, I say. The little folks are saying, “so this is what a booming economy feels like? Really?”.
158
@Dr. Girl When Obama took over the economy was in a stabilized condition with $350B left from Bush TARP program. After Obama took over, economy started to go don further, but stabilized after a while. He never had a decent economic growth in any of his years, though that was the norm after a recession. Even though he had on average more than $1T deficit spending and zero interest rate, the economic growth was less than 2%. It is funny to see these people giving credit to Obama for the current economic growth and blaming Trump for budget deficit which is much less than during Obama.
@Alex E:
Trump has the largest deficit in the last 70+ years as a percentage of GDP in a non-recession climate.
14
@Alex E - "He never had a decent economic growth in any of his years"
Sorry, but you are simply wrong
Here are the quarterly growth rate numbers under Obama -
2009 2 -0.54747
2009 3 1.4644
2009 4 4.4665
2010 1 1.548
2010 2 3.7394
2010 3 2.9816
2010 4 2.0228
2011 1 0.9583
2011 2 2.8907
2011 3 0.111
2011 4 4.7184
2012 1 3.1689
2012 2 1.7319
2012 3 0.541
2012 4 0.4563
2013 1 3.59
2013 2 0.4945
2013 3 3.1707
2013 4 3.2314
2014 1 1.0033
2014 2 5.1106
2014 3 4.924
2014 4 1.9008
2015 1 3.3317
2015 2 3.3395
2015 3 0.9639
2015 4 0.4002
2016 1 1.5476
2016 2 2.2817
2016 3 1.9254
2016 4 1.7618
2017 1 1.785
I'm sure you noticed the 4 and 5% increases.
Here are Trumps numbers:
2017 2 2.9917
2017 3 2.8233
2017 4 2.2912
2018 1 2.2176
2018 2 4.1588
2018 3 3.356
2018 4 2.2
2019 1 3.2
Obama had:
3% or better 10 quarters
4% or better 4 quarters
5% or better 1 quarter
Trump has had:
3% or better 3
4% or better 1
5% or better 0
If you are going to talk numbers, it's good to have the numbers right.
34
So did the deficit, to record numbers, hmmm?
I'm reading some of the comments here and I'm bewildered. First of all...those who want a 3.2% increase in their wages are ignorant of how the economy works. But based on their negative attitude, I suspect they're not in line for a raise! Second...if the Dems are elected, they can kiss their jobs good-bye because the Dems (other than Joe) want to raise the corporate tax. Do they understand what that means? It means another mass exodus of American corporations for Ireland, etc. Too many of Americans are willing to shoot this country in the foot just because they dislike the President. And their self-destructive choices affect all Americans!
5
@J. G. Smith
I'm bewildered by your comment, for its lack of complete and objective perspective.
Many sources confirm that under current and former administrations many major corporations avoided paying their full tax rates, and some avoided paying any taxes at all.
Read here to verify:
https://americansfortaxfairness.org/tax-fairness-briefing-booklet/fact-sheet-corporate-tax-rates/
and here:
https://itep.org/the-35-percent-corporate-tax-myth
Many corporations have been-offshoring their profits for decades to avoid taxes.
So your empathy for them is misplaced, because the reality is they will try to avoid paying ANY taxes regardless of the effective tax rate or under which administration they are operating.
I hear many of my fellow citizens complain about people working the welfare system and other "socialist" government programs to rip us off. But they never mention the Corporate Welfare Programs the government -read Congress -- currently operates with blatant disregard for us in the Middle.
5
People are still not able to make ends meet, too many are underpaid, and have to work two or more jobs, so the economy is only working for the upper class and one percent.
I Just Saying....
3
Thank you Mr. President for delivering such wonderful results! God are Democrats out to lunch. They want to “fix” an economy that’s humming like it just won’t quit by reinstalling the same regulations and tax policies that delivered the worst recovery from a recession in history; heck they’d like to even get more aggressive with failed policies. Hopefully, as I believe is the case, Americans are too smart to fall for envy politics.
Meantime, there’s opportunity aplenty for those who are ready to go after it; get yours my fellow Americans! Get it while the gettin is good!
7
Really? The economy has been getting better ever since the Obama administration corrected the errors that precipitated the 2008 economic downturn. I’m glad that Trump and his minions haven’t ruined the good work that the previous administration did.
4
@Glevine,
Nope, I’m afraid not. Obama presided over such a meager recovery that it took nearly his entire two terms to get back to pre recession levels and this in spite of unprecedented aggressive action taken by the fed during the entire 8 years. Enter Trump and the consumer index flies to the moon right after his surprising upset victory, and the economy is now on a trajectory that in no way resembles the Obama economy (and this in spite of the fed raising rates at a substantial clip to try to avoid the economy overheating from all the excitement). Also the notion that Obama “corrected the errors that precipitated the 2008 economic downturn” is just ridiculous. First, recessions always end irrespective of who’s in office; of course the recovery can be meager as was the case in the weak recovery Obama presided over. Second, what errors do you think Obama corrected. The big banks are even bigger than they used to be!
4
Is this windfall due to Trump's doing or in spite of it? Looking for a friend.
1
When a tiny two bedroom house in my area is selling for over a million dollars, the price of my teeth cleaning has just gone up to $138, it costs $3 for a bottle of water in a local food court, yet myself and most of the people around me have the same number of disposable dollars that we had in 1998, it fills me with outrage to see articles like this. Once again the Times economic reporters are stuck firmly in the 1970s using 20th century metrics to describe a 21st century economy.
Perhaps the overall economy is expanding, but practically all of these "3.2%" gains are realized by the Bezos', Waltons', Dimons' Buffets', Sacklers', and other top fraction of the top one percent families while the struggle for the rest of us just gets harder and harder all the time.
My friend's mother was just billed $250K for a 10 day hospital stay in upstate New York and many dollar stores in Los Angeles are now charging $1.21 per item.
Your rubrics, while traditionally sound have morphed over time and a changing economic landscape to become utterly disingenuous and misleading.
I would like to see articles that describe the real diminished value of these figures to the average person instead of puff pieces like these that deflate like a souflee after the oven door is slammed, the minute you spray the mist of reality upon them.
310
@WGM Respectfully, you are blaming the big city newspaper for being the messenger of national and international news. Go to the website of smaller newspapers (and other media) interested in regional and local news and it is easier to make conclusions about the average wage-earner. Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket.
That said, I do agree that this article presents only one-piece of a puzzle that has at least 100 more.
7
@WGM
"....puff pieces like these that deflate like a soufle after the oven door is slammed, the minute you spray the mist of reality upon them." Wonderful metaphor! The NYT always has these sorts of "economy is doing great" stories, neglecting to discuss the truth on the ground for the average American. Here in San Diego, I could never afford to buy a home and consider myself fortunate to have a roof over my head, unlike so many here (or in Los Angeles - 50,000 people with no homes there).
27
My observations,sentiments, and experience.... exactly!
22
Traditional economic indicators—interest rates, unemployment stats, inflation rates, GDP—all indicate a good economy—almost booming, really. Yet half of all Americans have no savings, can't afford to use the courts, and cannot afford healthcare—a major cause of bankruptcy—and housing is becoming unaffordable.
We need different economic indicators. Every majjor newspaper has a BUSINESS section. In this age of obsolete professions and vanishing corporations, like Kodak and Blockbuster, machinists, coal miners, and the rise of robotics, every major newspaper needs a LABOR section.
I'm a teacher. Under the new, swollen pile of illegible scrawled tax law, I'll be paying three thousand more in taxes this year. Because I am from the powerhoouse of this economy— California.
We have renewed pollution to thanks as well.
6
Would somebody at the Times please explain exactly WHO in the country did that 3.2% growth rate benefit the most?
Thank you.
3
Run a Trillion dollar a year deficits and your gonna get growth. The real question is this extra growth during a boom economy worth Trump's exploding deficits. I am sure Trump will brag about this, he pretends he alone dragged us out of recession. At the same time never forget Trump blamed others not his reckless tariff policies for the steep stock market from 6 months ago.
I am sure Obama could have had similar growth if he and the Trumop quislings of the GOP ran up trillion dollar deficits during his last 4 years. Fox spent 8 years calling Obama's work pulling us out of a recession incompetent. They call Trump's deficit fueled growth genius. We are a nations of foolish crickets under Trump. Winter is coming.
10
Thank you, Mr. Trump! You might not be a holy man, but you know how to run an economy.
And, honestly, I didn’t elect you to be my pope, just the president. And not for life. I will do my part, however, so that you get a second term.
10
@Rose M
"just the President"
I suppose if you give the church a pass on it's scandals, Trump's seem relatively 'minor'.
But this is the United States, and since the election of Trump - I no longer am religious. At all.
The hypocrisy became far too glaring.
1
@Rose M He has done nothing for the economy that wasn't already happening. What has he done? A tax cut? All that did was add a trillion dollars annually to the debt and enrich the already wealthy. It had nominal affect on the economy and whatever that was has since disappeared. He inherited a strong, growing economy. All we can praise him with is not screwing it up.
This economy experienced 75 straight months of growth before his horrifying ascension to office. The continued growth means he's just lucky. His lack of intelligence about almost everything except how to cheat on taxes and defraud investors would have left him helpless if he entered office the Way President Obama did with 10% unemployment, 700,000 monthly job losses, a collapsing banking and auto industry, two mismanaged wars, and tens of millions of people uninsured and countless others going bankrupt because of medical bills and unsavory lending practices.
So please don't assign any praise to a guy who was born rich, never had to balance a budget, is a failed businessman and who has lied to you 10,000 times since taking office. Oh, and he praises Nazis and is the preferred candidate of white supremacists and Russia.
2
@Rose M,
I totally agree with you. You don’t have to like Trump to vote for him. I don’t really like him, but I intend to vote for him.
3
Which Liberal complained about deficits doubling during Obama’s 8 years?
12
@Dr. John
I take it you never uttered a word regarding those issues during President Obama's term?
Or is this an admission?
@Dr. John
Obama ran up more debt than all previos presidents COMBINED.
There's no way to follow that kind of wild borrowing with balanced budgets immediately. Were the Prez doing that, that's all the papers would talk about.
4
The deficits were the result of a serious decline in tax revenue due to the 2008 crash and improved as Obama’s term went on. Deficits now are in the face of an expanding economy.
2
The fix is in. Word on the street is that the books are cooked.
@You Can’t Teach Heart.
100% correct.
Wilber Ross cooked the numbers.
They’ll revise the numbers over memorial day weekend.
Today's Bloomberg Business headline: "Red flags are flying in the credit-card industry after a key gauge of bad debt jumped to the highest level in almost seven years." Ladies & Gentlemen: Start your foreclosures...
6
Is this another piece of "fake news"? I go to the Home Depot in Rancho Mirage and the store is not very busy at all. In fact, there were more employees than shoppers. I go to the Apple store in Palm Desert and I don't see anybody buying anything.
5
So this means the government shutdown was a good idea?
2
Economic growth does not necessarily contribute to human welfare - much more likely it measures the Opposite because it ignores externalities and income distribution and sustainability and everything else.
GDP is an obsolete indicator from a long gone era. It worked somewhat back then because corporations shared their wealth and paid non-subsidized taxes.
Now GDP only measures corporate rapaciousness and profiteering at the expense of the People.
High GDP is a negative.
The only indicators that matter are the Happiness Index, the Inclusive Development Index, and the Human Sustainability Development Index (the old HDI plus per capita carbon emissions).
We rank 18th on the Happiness Index, 23rd on the IDI, and
24th on the HSDI.
Top-ranked on these People-centered measures are the Scandinavian countries - those hated Democratic Socialists have beaten us again.
Norway is number one on all three.
4
@Fourteen1
Well....Norway is the size of one of our states. Pretty easy stuff...for About 5 million people making anti tank missiles. Not even tangentially close in comparison. Sir.
1
@Fourteen14
GDP as a measure of economicand social progress is as usefull as a barometer to measure temperatures.
When the barometer indicate high pressure and a sony day, it does nor mean that it is not freezing.
Reconstruction ot the Tween Towers brought about lot of work, salaries etc. Were we richer for it?? Or as the comment above questiones, where we happier ?
@Tom Person
It is too easy to nay-say; don't give up so easily.
Size has very little to do with it. Our problem is that we don't even try - and that's due to nay-saying.
Darn.
Guess liberals have to be mad about a hot economy and record high stock markets.
Noticed when the market broke new records, it was below the fold and 'thank the fed!' Let it go, Times.
"Thanks Obama!"
4
@Scott
You are aware 2018 was the worst year for the stock market in a decade, right?
Probably not.
3
And you are no doubt also aware that markets are very near all time highs. This was a good example of people standing on their heads to make things seem worse than they are
3
Operations and maintenance; this was thought to have given production executives nightmares, new product (R&D) seems to show signs of growth, but end-user packaging terminates the profits that (some how) distill formulations and revisions out to pasture. Government needs to pull out older files of Green Chemistry initiatives, and watch for ways to bring ideas back into the board rooms, to say the least here!
1
awesome! Really really good news. Huge font news. Our twitter-er in chief should tweet about that! "The Failing New York Times will not give me the font I deserve!" and then you can embed the tweet into a future article and increase your digital subscription numbers. I think this is awesome!
1
I don’t know how to get Trumpists to look at the averages over time, let alone what whomping up this type of growth with bigger and bigger deficits that are environmental as well as budgetary is going to mean.
And while I’d like to think that Commerce wouldn’t fudge the numbers, I wouldn’t trust Wilbur Ross as far as I can throw his doubloons.
3
As if Trump’s tax cuts, tariffs, rollback of regulations, and optimistic tone are just a continuation of Obama’s policies which Trump is merely capitalizing on.
5
@Edward
Trump's tax cuts and rollback of regulations primarily benefits the corporate and wealthy elite like himself. PERIOD.
And Obama had nothing to do with this -- or have you already forgotten about the Affordable Health Care Act that this president can't repeal fast enough?
1
It did? My pay didn't increase by 3.2%, and it's certainly not a "record breaking levels," so where is that economic expansion happening?
Oh right: at the very top income levels.
6
Has pay increased at the same level? No. The only people celebrating are the one-percenters.
9
Nothing to cheer about . Our enviroment is being destroyed by the GOP with the continued use of coal and fossil fuels. Full employment with coal use equals total pollution as we see in China and India. We are having daily tornados earlier in the season and major cities being flooded from more stronger storms. Our Pope Francis recently said to oil men you harm the enviroment with coal use you harm humanity. China and India are so polluted daily they were breathing masks 24/7. Wake up Trump and GOP supporters we will be like them. Very sad.
9
Exactly. The loser has given us this "great" economy (that isn't, for workers' rights and health) at the cost of the US's environment, humanity, and credibility.
The mad (red-)hatters won't care. They've got figures to gloat about, "You Liberals" to hurt, and a world to burn.
Time to shun and outvote them.
3
Americans have the memories of goldfish, and somehow manage to learn nothing from each successive economic crisis. Just because the good times last a few years doesn’t mean they will last forever...and it doesn’t mean the crash won’t be bad when it comes.
The 2008 crash was precipitated by a crisis that was years in the making. The economy was buoyed by real estate purchases funded by mortgages that could never realistically be repayed. With loose regulations and minimal oversight under the Bush administration, banks sold those worthless mortgates to speculators and each other, passing them around like hot potatoes creating an economic boom based on a lie. It took years for the bottom to fall out, but fall out it did.
And here we are again. It might not be mortgages this time. It might be Trump pushing the fed to keep the economy on steroid with low interest rates. It might be re-loosening of banking regulations. It might simply be over-optimism in the stock market driven by promise of corporate profits by promise of low taxes. But something is coming, and this administration has made sure we will be utterly unprepared for it.
5
Not to throw a wrench into it, but since the president claims everything he doesn’t like as “fake news”, can we not be suspicious of data coming out of his government? Hasn’t he purged every department and put in sycophants and yes-men at all of the top levels. Couldn’t there be some massaging of the numbers to make it more favorable to him? Since we are heading in the direction of government at the service of one man, anything is possible. Unfortunately, this man’s style of governance has eroded my trust in all departments of the federal government.
13
A large percentage of this growth can be attributed to our continued building of the great war machine.
2
I see that so many of the negative posts are coming from people living in CA. I know your complaints are valid and I feel your pain, but your problems are coming from your own state governance not from anything Trump has or has not done. You live in an overregulated, highly taxed state. Your state squanders money and forces higher costs on it citizens by chasing after small incremental gains in its war against global warming. In addition, your state govt. has allowed, even encouraged, your state to become overpopulated (relative to other states) with waves of desperately poor, uneducated Hispanics. They don't contribute enough to the tax base of CA to offset the state monies spent on their education, healthcare, and social services given to their children. Wages cannot rise organically in a state that has a disproportionate number of poorer people competing for jobs.
Trump may be obnoxious, but he is trying to limit the number of illegal immigrants coming into the country to numbers that the overall economy can absorb. CA would benefit from this the most.
8
Yeah! Becuse Kansas is a real success story! And there are no immygrants in Texas!!
6
@DeputyDog
I sometimes wonder how bad our Calif. housing crises would be if just half the migrants living in CA, those from South of the border and overstaying their Visas. Would a 1 bedroom apt. in Los Angeles still cost $2,500.? Sure the economy would contract but maybe fewer people, students and low income individuals, would be living in their cars. There are more of them than you would think.
3
@DeputyDog
Not everyone in California disagrees with you.
2
A month after the findings of non-collusion, the economy responds very positively to the good news.
8
Seems irrelevant but RV sales are way off, this has been about a year trend, and always indicates recession. What data matters here?
4
@northlander
RV are major investments and frankly, I don't understand people leaving them for 11 months at at time in the front lawn or driveway. They really don't improve the appearance of any neighborhood, or the value of the homes (they are often only moved mostly when the home is up for sale, not on vacation). Do they make economic sense for vacations figuring in their cost. their depreciation (the major cost of all vehicles), upkeep, gas and fuel (for heating and cooking), storage fees (unless they are allowed to visually pollute the neighborhood), camping fees, etc.? I have no idea. Then again, a lot of people seem to love them. What do I know? I know some mountain roads I would not want to risk driving them on without raising my life insurance.
2
Obama left such a healthy economy that even a child couldn't (can't) mess it up. And if you want to goose the economy a tax cut for the rich, low interest rates and deficit spending to finance said tax cuts will temporarily keep the Obama Recovery going. So long as we get the "child's" hands off the controls soon...
8
My fear here is for 2020. Presidents seem to have a better chance of reelection in a strong economy, whether or not a president accurately deserves credit for the economy as a whole.
The whole "Don't impeach, vote him out" strategy becomes flimsier with a strong economy, or even a strong stock market despite increasing economic divides.
Please don't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, Dems.
6
Cant a lot of this be attributed to the huge federal spending and thus very high deficit?
8
And please let me know if wages have crept upward in the rural parts of our country... you know, the MAGA areas.
Has anyone there benefited or are those folks still faced with GOP "leadership" that refuses to advocate any form of higher minimum wage?
5
The gains in the US stock market probably distorted this first quarter growth. For the first quarter of 2019, the S&P 500 Index was up about +13.1%. Compounded for 4 quarters, this +13.1% quarterly growth compounds to an annual growth rate of about +63.6%. Thus, for this particular quarter, to base any policy decisions affecting Main Street on this aberrational Wall Street success would probably be mistaken. Since falling interest rates, which are generally not indicative of robust GDP growth, drove this stock market growth, and an inverted yield curve has recently arisen among government securities, a more cautionary view of these results may be warranted.
[Friday 04/26/2019 12:38pm Greenville NC]
2
As a result of Trump's mendacity and his interference with the Federal Reserve, it's difficult to accept the numbers... or anything that comes out of Washington at this point.
9
Trump has been president over two years and Democrats still credit this economy to Obama
I know precisely when they'll call it the Trump Economy
When it falters...
18
“That is significantly better than most economists expected, and far better than the dour forecasts of early this year”
Thank You President Trump
MAGA.
31
@Sports Medicine
Too bad this doesn't necessarily translate into better-paying jobs for ALL Americans and will result in a future trillion dollar debt.
Besides, since when can anyone trust everything that comes out of Donald Trump's mouth?
14
@Sports Medicine what part of "10 year recovery" did you not understand?
4
@Sports Medicine
Let's not forget President Obama as well!
1
If GDP is doing so well then why is the deficit exploding and wages stagnant?
10
@Deirdre
Wages are rising. They’ve been rising.
They were stagnant, even declining, under Obama, or his entire term except the very last.
12
@Sports Medicine
You seem very fired up in support of President Trump. Have you read the Mueller Report?
Also, are you an economist or a sports medicine doctor? I'm an attorney, so I like to have an idea who is pumping out statistics with no citations.
Lastly, 'prosperity' is measured by many variables. Check Mr. Trump's numbers on some of those other variables, please.
Like health care ..
8
Dear SM:
Nope.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/
What’s happened is that Trump’s increased pay and profits for the top chunk of Americans, and called it success.
And you been suckered.
2
These numbers are always revised, and the revised numbers never get the coverage of the original. If the GDP number is revised significantly downward, that will raise the question of whether the original announcement was "Barred," a complete and intentional misrepresentation of the facts to allow the president to claim victory and control the narrative before the truth comes out. If it turns out Commerce is cooking the books on GDP, the damage to the credibility of all economic data and claims from the federal government will impact the US and world economies for many years.
4
Yes, the economy has been great! Check out all the low wage jobs available. I imagine many people must have 2 jobs to make ends meet. As China purchases more in our tech and manufacturing sectors, watch the wages and working conditions decrease. But, yes, the rich are doing great!
16
Even the Democrats have to admit Trump has been great for the US Economy. Trump really has delivered on MAGA.
Economic Growth, Stock Market, Jobs, Unemployment, Rising Wages, Tax Cuts, Consumer Confidence, Manufacturing, Energy.
This strong economy would completely reverse and deteriorate under a Bernie or other progressive president.
38
@MichaelI find it interesting that ALL of the pro-trump respondees in this thread are located outside the USA. Thanks for the comment, Ivan.
3
@Michael Donner
Wrong. Pro-Trump and right down the street from you.
1
@Michael it's a classic GOP pump and dump scheme designed to collapse in 3...2...1....
4
Markets at a record high, unemployment near record lows, 3 percent growth. I don’t know who’s to blame for this disaster, but voters can decide next year.
42
@John D You are absolutely right. I am glad we have some Republicans in California. Believe it or not I live in Massachusetts and never knew of a single person in this state that admitted they voted for EW or a Kennedy? And I have 1,400 facebook friends mostly from Massachusetts.
Growth is fine but building our economy has still not reached millions of Americans, who have low wages, mediocre health care and still struggling to pay bills. We need to share the wealth.
16
@C Hernandez
the nation can't have everything. The budget includes a huge military budget truth be told it is more like a trillion $. There is nothing left for infrastructure, education and health care. Corporations don't pay much taxes, many pay no taxes, who will pay the bill if not the working people?
10
Are these figures externally vetted? Given the Commerce Dept's demonstrated willingness to lie on the administration's behalf, and the fact that Trump requires loyalty oaths of all those who serve, I don't think we should assume these numbers are true unless backed up by nonpartisan verification.
13
@Question
Translation: I refuse to accept anything that doesn't confirm my own internal anti-Trump psychodrama.
And I'm sure Robert Mueller and William Barr have joined your list of conspiratorialists now that they've debunked the Collusion Delusion, too.
16
@JW Yep. I do refuse to accept anything that hasn't been vetted independently, but it's not due to any "anti-Trump psychodrama," though he inflicts psychodrama on a daily basis. Rather, it's due to the fact that he and his administration don't give a flying fig about truth, and lie so often that it's doubtful they know would a fact if it hit them in their collective heads. The fact that you think Mueller "debunked the Collusion Delusion" tells me that facts mean little to you as well. Read the report. There might not have been a conspiracy under the law, but there was certainly collusion: Trump's campaign knew Russia wanted to help, accepted the help, and invited more help. And there is significant evidence of obstruction, if not proof beyond a reasonable doubt. Delusion indeed.
8
Everybody should thank the stable genius Donald The Great Trump whom is leading the USA to his greatest years. Also with all the revenus that this prosperity will bring to the treasury, the USA will be able to pay for the "beautiful" wall with TRUMP in golden letter on it. And Trump will be able to build and pay for another wall between Canada and the USA. And to conclude who needs those crazy ideas of the Democratic Party, like health care for everybody, minimum wage of $15, taxes on the rich,... when Chairman Trump is at the helm.
14
This sure has been an extended “sugar high.”
Even with the large grain of salt that should accompany initial GDP numbers, it is becoming uncomfortable for those in the secular stagnation/aggregate demand/govt makes the economy grow wing of U.S.economics.
And I don’t even know what to say about the many who parroted the “exactly the wrong time to stimulate with tax cuts” line of thinking, nearly all if them confusing partisan reflex with an informed perspective on economics
8
The economy is doing well, for those that benefitted fro the Trump tax cut, the wealthy. The rest heard his promise of great, cheap health care, more jobs, higher pay, investments in infrastructure etc.. and are wondering if that was all lies and the his only purpose was to help Republican donors become even wealthier. Remember, Sheldon Adelson was worth just under $2 billion when Obama took office and when he left Sheldon was worth just under $40 billion. That didn`t stop Sheldon from saying that Obama was a threat to America who din`t understand capitalism. Until the right wing wealthy have all of the money, they won`t be satisfied as they feel entitled!
14
Fair or unfair, right or wrong, accurate or inaccurate, Presidents get judged largely on the economy.
Only one President (James Monroe) has survived a depression.
9
@DennisG
Thought Obama did reasonably well in the 'great recession', considering the headwinds in the Senate controlled by the other party.
4
That’s swell. Now where’s the “Index” that tells the average Consumer whether they’ve done better or still can’t save for that house or afford the mortgage. This is a lot of useless information for most people.
9
It’s called the consumer confidence index. It measures the degree of optimism consumers in the US are feeling about the state of the economy based on their spending and saving activities. It shot to the moon shortly after President Trump won the election (go figure, a new pro business administration taking office has a tendency to awaken the animal spirits), and it’s generally been at significantly elevated levels ever since.
4
Why come out with these numbers if they always are revised later on? And then you have “better measures” anyway? Here’s what I know: the things I have to have, like groceries and gasoline, are getting more expensive. As a retiree on a fixed income, my pension and Social Security are, well, “fixed.” My standard of living is eroding. And from what I’ve read, so is most people’s when you factor in debt on things like housing and student loans. Cars sure are’t getting cheaper, either. Maybe jobs are more plentiful, but they sure don’t pay like they used to if you include benefits... and healthcare is through the roof. Speaking of a roof, I’m going to need a new one before long, they’re darned expensive too. So things might seem just swell to Trump, but out here in flyover land, that rosy scenario is not so rosy.
20
@The Nattering Nabob. Just what I have seen and thought. These “numbers” are bunkum and PR, put out by a government and a Republican Party that measures everything by how great it is for businesses.
I'm not a pessimistic person by any means, but when I read these kind of articles I am literally baffled. I don't see any difference in my economic universe....my income is almost exactly what it was 15 years ago, give or take a couple of thousand bucks a year, and with the occasional self-created windfall (I'm in commission sales). I expect most everyone else I know feels the same way. My clients, however (top one percenters and art collectors) are definitely rolling in cash more so now than ever. But they're not spending like they used to.
20
@Jeffrey Gillespie, I agree with you as a middle-class person. We are not in debt and manage to save, but we are not doing any better than we were, in part because wages are not keeping up with inflation. But for working class people, their lives are going downhill but fast. A friend of ours is a public health/pediatric nurse, and she told us recently that she has never before seen the poverty among her mainly black and Latino clients as now -- and this is among families where most of the adults are employed. People just can't keep up with housing and healthcare costs and they are, frankly, sinking but fast. At this point, I think only a massive wave of union organizing could save some of them...
14
@Jeffrey Gillespie
I've nearly quadrupled my income in the last 15 years. I've also learned new skills and changed jobs 4 times, eventually starting my own company. If you're still working for the same company, haven't picked up new skills, and/or asked for a raise; then it's not the economy that's holding down your wages.
I also moved out of a large Democrat controlled metro area, which greatly reduced my cost of living.
1
@I want another option....many are not able to take advantage of the same opportunities afforded you. Education, age, health, kids, family support and community, and mobility can greatly help or hinder one's situation.
2
Low- interest rates and a huge military budget will always do the trick. Saudis and NATO countries better increase their military spending as told to do and buy more military equipment made in the US. after all, there will be an election next year
It is the open self-service cooky jar for the shareholders, the upper 1%
5
This is a good number, not great, but as the article says, better than expected.
Average quarterly GDP growth since 1991 has been 2.6%. Since Trump has been in office, he has had 4 quarters below that average, 5 (including this one) above. His average is 2.8. Not bad, but not bragworthy either.
On the other hand, the deficit has gone from $587B to over $1T. Funny there are no Republicans (and not many Dems either) complaining about this. My only issue is that the deficit isn't worth the increase in GDP from 2.6 to 2.8%. But we'll see by 2020 if this works out. Maybe we'll see 4% annual GDP on a more regular basis by then.
4
@SXM
What happened to deficits don't matter from Modern Money Theory being pushed by progressives these days?
2
@SXM
As far as I can tell Democrats only care about deficits when Republicans are trying to cut taxes, and Republicans only care about deficits when Democrats are trying to increase spending.
Cut taxes and increase the debt enough we could have even greater growth. But is it sustainable and is it helping anyone but the rich? Not in my view.
20
It seems to me that this result is another example of describing economic growth as a measure of how wealthy individuals and corporations are doing, not working people. My taxes and the taxes of persons that I know were higher this year resulting in less money in my pocket and more money in the pockets of the wealthy and corporations.
33
@Floyd Lewis
Really?
1
You must have been looking at the tax tables for the wrong year. Happily you’ll soon be getting a correction letter from the IRS not only increasing the amount of your refund but giving you interest as well. So chin up!
The jobs numbers are good. But people do realize economic growth can come through productivity gains from technology?
7
When on takes into account that big ticket items such as cars and appliances sales of which actually declined in the first quarter as one might expect due to a Government shutdown . It appears that the growth we are seeing is largely coming from the Governments spending on the Military . Such as the purchasing of planes and other military hardware . That all being said there was growth, but it was not generated by consumer spending.
9
And economic indicators were strong in 2007 too. Remember those good old days, when the party seemed like it would never end? If President Trump has his way, the Fed will keep interest rates lower than they should be, possibly triggering a recession.
But no matter . . . the wealthiest among us won't suffer one bit when the economy inevitably falters. Keep deregulating the market and businesses, keep giving tax cuts to wealthy individuals and corporations no matter the accumulating debt, keep interest rates low. What could possibly go wrong?
16
@jrinsc Nothing will go wrong, the Military Industrial Complex is doing extremely well. Nato will have to do more to feed the MIC too, the Saudis hopefully are doing their part of the bargain too. There will be an election next year, after that who knows, maybe a war against Iran that is what weapons are made for?
2
The economic numbers are due to slashed taxes on big business and looming, massive national debt Trump instituted to give big business these tax breaks. How much of that trickles down to hourly workers and farmers?
But my question to voters is: Is economic data the only measure of the health of our democracy? How about Trump’s ignoring the rule of law, disrespecting our system of checks and balances, dismantling the government agencies that protect us, and attempting to install himself as supreme leader like the dictators he admires—Putin and Kim?
While you are beaming about the current economy, think about where you will be if Trump succeeds in dismantling our democracy. Will you like him when your health insurance is taken away, when climate change affects you, when your voting rights are taken away, when the federal government cuts back drastically on aid to public schools, when Medicare and Social Security benefits are cut?
These things are coming if we allow Trump to trample on our democratic institutions with the quiescent assent of Republican lawmakers.
29
@Barbara "where you will be if Trump succeeds in dismantling our democracy"
Democrats and Republicans have both been doing this for decades. It did not start with Trump despite your disliking him.
14
@MM
May I suggest you read the comment again. Nowhere does it say that this "started" with Trump -- but there's no way to deny that he has consistently held himself above the law in a way that Republicans would have excoriated Obama (or any Democrat) for.
Another thing.
This has nothing to do with "disliking him" and everything to do with disagreeing with the way he's running and ruining our government to suit his own personal needs.
4
Wait until the Coastal middle-class start to see Trumps $1.5T tax increases, just for them because he loves the great, great middle-class so much. Your be best.
And oh the gifts to the corp-class (you know; the Republican and Democratic "leadership"): Ending the Territorial tas, reducing the corp tax rate to 22%, the 20% pass-through non-corp income deduction, ending the Alternative MT for corporations, increasing the individual exemption to $1million, raised the estate tax limit to $22 mil.
They're playing both ends to kill the middle. Enjoy the robustiness while it's here.
What that? Aussie real estate is going to trigger what?
5
@Newsbuoy Wait until after the election, then we will get the bill. So much expensive military hardware needs to be used.
1
@Irving Nusbaum....what's amazing is his time spent watching TV and playing golf.
The headline suggests good news. Many posters decided that we just cannot have any good news as long as Trump is in office.
This has become a religious dogma. And, as we all know, there is no sense trying to argue with religious dogma.
34
@boroka the economy is a hot air balloon at this point. The wealth of the nation is being invested in the military industry making lots of money for the top 1% but being financed by the working middle- class people. The hidden inflation is eating up their savings, even a few $$ of below-inflation low-interest rates will be taxed as earned income, that is if they are able to save a few $$$. The Cheney's must be drowning in Haliburton capital gains.
3
@boroka We had great numbers during the Obama years. Needless to say, he couldn't do anything right either. Definitely goes both ways.
7
With Wilbur Ross in charge, can we really believe these numbers?
34
It's great to see the economy doing well.
It would feel better if we didn't have to worry about:
Toxic coal waste in our water
Airplanes falling from the sky due to deregulation or poor oversight
Relaxing greenhouse gas emission standards on new coal-fired power plants.
The constant assault on the AFFORDABLE CARE ACT
The constant assault on our valued ALLIES
Russian interference in the 2020 elections.
75
@Howard Levine from Middletown Twp, PA. Your new found worries have nothing to do with the economy doing well. Here is my response.
Toxic coal waste in our water. Unacceptable. How long is this thing going on and where? What has anyone done to stop this?
Airplanes falling from the sky due to deregulation or poor oversight. None of the Boeing airplanes have fallien from skies over the USA and the FAA had demanded that Boeing will be held accountable for any design or manufacturing defects in 737 MAx.
Relaxing greenhouse gas emission standards on new coal-fired power plants. The EPA has never taken on the role of a stringent enforcer of laws and this coal-fired power plants are not new at least not in the past 2 years. Most of the pollution is in the megacities in the country with LA being the top polluter and Boston surprised me as a city with significant smoke stacks have been old coal-fired plants. Are you suggesting that they all abandon those. I will agree if that is your suggestion.
The constant assault on the AFFORDABLE CARE ACT (ACA) The first salvo of an assault on ACA was from expresident Bill Clinton who called ACA or Obamacare a craziest system in the world. Subsequently all the new Socialists are assaulting Obamacare by proposing an alternative Medicare for all ages.
The constant assault on our valued ALLIES .
Straightening out Allies who took advantage of USA was appropriate.
Russian interference in the 2020 elections. Chicken little and the sky is falling.
8
@Girish Kotwal
These are all longstanding concerns.
With the tinkering this administration is doing, they will continue to be longstanding, more expensive concerns.
3
@atutu Boston, MA and I am glad you agree that the concerns of Howard Levine of MA are long standing concerns. I disagree that this administration will continue to make them long standing more expensive concerns. Maybe this administration should make this a priority but considering that so many other long standing concerns were inherited and dealt with as a matter of priority, I hope that this administration gets a pass on this one. Imagine if decimating ISIS was not made a priority we would have seen the worst terrorist attacks like Sri Lanka occur elsewhere in the world including the USA.
I don't believe these statistics for a New York minute...we've seen creative math followed by "oops" subsequent revisions before. These so-called economists work for financial institutions that have vested interest in perpetuating the myths until it cannot be manipulated any longer.
We've seen this movie before.
13
@Confucius
Exactly, the 2008 recession wasn't officially declared a recession until 2009.
6
"That measure, known as final private sales, came in at 1.3 percent, down from 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the weakest showing since 2013."
"Consumer spending was weak in the first quarter, rising at just a 1.2 percent rate, the slowest in a year."
Sure is a rosy outlook by economists considering these numbers.
12
Trump’s re-election is assured.
21
At least Obama didn’t need Russia to win an election.
21
@Mr. Little
Is he running against Hillary Clinton again?
No he just turned a blind eye to anything the Russians were doing during the 2016 election. Everybody seems to forget that he was in charge at the time, what did you do for us?
2
@bored critic
You miss a greater point...
Imagine if Dems were in the White House and they went after those multi-billion dollar companies and tax loopholes for the rich, re-established oversight for government spending, educated kids from all income levels so they wouldn't be crippled by debt, implemented pre-disaster health care, lowered drug prices and saved the planet so that YOUR grandkids would have a safe, clean environment in their future.
I guess you think a presidential term of running a re-election campaign, golfing at his resort in NJ at our expense and earning money on it at the cost (not to mention risky security) to us for his weekends at Mar-a-lago. Not to mention the gang of criminals and unqualified deadbeats he put in charge of our government (and then fired and put worse ones in).
Don't dump this on the Dems. The last time they were in the White House they kept us from going over the precipice that GW Bush had pushed us to. We are still running on Obama's momentum (and letting Trump take the credit so he doesn't have a temper tantrum and go out and start another war to show us how big and powerful he is).
35
@Mountain Dragonfly You mean Democrats like Bill Clinton whose major accomplishments were "Republican like".
@Mountain Dragonfly. Trump owns this great economy! He got rid of Obama’s regulations. Having a successful business man in the White House instead of a community organizer does make a difference. I do give Obama credit for getting us out of the recession.
2
@Judy Orders
Problem is what exactly Trump's business success is/was. He made money on a reality show. He is good at marketing/spin, refusing to pay vendors, racial bias, tax evasion and scamming investors who wound up paying for his mistakes. Also giving good deals to Russians and Saudi's in his buildings to cement future income possibilities).
His wine, ties, steaks, "university", etc were all failures. He is a hit and run opportunist and is using the office of the presidency to further his agenda, not managing it for the benefit of the American people. The economy that Obama got back on track is still gliding from momentum. Regular people are NOT enjoying a "booming economy". Stock market is good...for investors who are the people whose capital gains got the big (and permanent) tax break. Employment figures are good because wages are not, and many are working below value or multiple jobs or as independent contractors.
So if Trump wants to "own" the economy that is like a crumbling shack that has been painted with a pretty color to hide the rot, fine by me. I just feel bad for the voters who may re-elect him and have the rest of the bottom drop out under their feet.
I’m not taking sides here – I just would like somebody to provide some insight.
I have two questions:
(a) Can you tell me which policies specifically initiated by President Trump are responsible for the good economy;
and
( b) can you provide direct cause and effect evidence, with credible sources, that those specific policies led to improvement in the economy.
So, in case that isn’t clear, if you think it was the tax cut and deregulation, can you (with credible sources to provide factual evidence) show me the direct line from those policies to the improved economy? Any other examples in addition to the tax cut and deregulation (along with cause and effect evidence supported by credible sources) would be very helpful.
Thank you.
12
Let me ask you this: would you be asking the same questions if the economy was tanking? Would you be asking for evidence that the deregulation and tax cuts and business friendly government was tanking the economy? Or would you be saying that it’s obvious that it was happening? I think most people would be screaming at that all of these policies were hurting the economy and yet when they help the economy they become skeptics.
7
But Paul, you didn’t answer the questions. Maybe because you realize that the good economy is simply a continuation of the trend started during the Obama admin, goosed a bit with the tax cut.
1
And I think you didn’t even try to answer the questions.
Figures.
So let me ask another.
Do you think this kind of growth is smart?
2
Consumers bounce back, yes with a nearly $14 trillion dollars in debt, an all time high. This can and will have huge economic and political consequences as we continue to roll back the safety nets the Obama administration put in place.
23
I just love the progressives here who are bemoaning the deficit.
As if “free” healthcare, “free” college, and their Green New Deal won’t massively add to it while killing the private sector which pays for it all.
Do they ever stop to consider how crazy and inconsistent they sound? Or how pessimistic and glum they sound?
After they’re trounced in 2020 a la Dukakis or Mondale, will they finally wake up and realize just how out of touch they are? Or will they continue to wallow in depression and victimhood?
47
So, why do conservatives not care about the deficit anymore? They all became progressive Keynesians now.
Debt eventually have to be paid.
30
@Cane Do you ever complain about all the bail out to banksters, insurance companies, automobiles or the yearly huge subsidies to big oil, big agr and many more.
Do you read or hear about those subsidies and tax breaks?
23
@Julie Exactly! The GOP has Gaslit these people to think free college (which used to be offered), Social Security, medicare for all is bad! All the while, the rich keep getting all the beaks, the banks keep gambling and getting bailed out etc.
24
As Trump did with the Mueller report, I suspect many of the commenters claiming victory only read the headline and not the article:
"(Friday’s figures are preliminary and will be revised at least twice in the months ahead.)
Economists warned that the report was inflated by short-term factors and probably overstated the underlying pace of growth."
The 2018 Q4 growth was recently adjusted down from 2.6 to 2.2.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-03-28/u-s-fourth-quarter-growth-pace-revised-down-to-2-2-from-2-6
11
@Amanda
So, what if it's revised upwards? That's also happened before.
1
Is the relatively good economy still being attributed to Obama by the left? I know the temporary stock market crash in the month of December 2018 was attributed to Trump so I suppose that November 2018 was the "cut off" for Obama receiving credit?
21
@NYChap
I am not sure that anyone should give Obama or Trump credit for the economy as it now stands. I think market forces and the economy are in a class by themselves.
5
@NYChap
First. It's not only "the left" that attributes the relatively good economy to Obama -- it's Economists and anyone with common sense.
This country didn't get out of a recession by magic, and its growth has lasted more than the two years since Trump has been in office.
Besides, we all know by now that he always takes credit for anything that's good.
7
The detractors will give ten thousand reasons to portray how the foundation for economic growth was laid during the Democratic admin. But in reality, when one blames the leader of the country for all the present ills and problems, they deserve credit for all that is good as well . So, it’s an achievement of the Trump administration. Promises made, promises kept.
24
Now to the real world. It would be extremely beneficial if we could include periodic measures of the planets health along with these capitalistic measures.
Drink it up humans, some day all this will be nostalgia.
10
Trump's Tax Cuts and Job Act of 2017 (TCJA) appears to be favorably effecting the economy. It will never reach the unbelievable level of 6% mentioned by Trump or that the TCJA would be "paying for itself" as stated by Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow, but it has changed some very fundamental parts of the US Economy.
The corporate rate cut along with the provisions that allow a company to fully deduct some investments has reduced the cost of capital on plant equipment and intellectual property. These two items are the foundation of increased worker productivity and higher long-term wages. Unsurprisingly, over the past two years, manufacturers have added 467K jobs. More than 6X the 73K added during Obama's last two years. Remember Obama saying these manufacturing jobs "are just not going to come back." They are coming back.
17
@Pat
Oh Seer, when will these higher wages trickle down?
Thanks in advance of a long wait.
6
This is a good economy for no one but the wealthy. This "growing economy" stifles living for 95% of Americans. Better paying jobs, jobs with benefits, or affordably priced homes are disappearing daily. When U.S. tax cuts are legislated for the wealthy, then the rest of the U.S. economy pays for them. This business news is worthless and a waste of time. No one is running around saying good economy except Wall Street, and you.
17
No mention that at a time of GDP growth and full employment there is no mention that the current 2019 budget deficit is going to come in a $897 million. If you subtract out the nearly trillion dollars that Trump is borrowing and flushing into the economy the GDP numbers would be a disaster. 2020 economy will also be supported by over a trillion more in deficit spending to artificially support the economy.
If massive deficits and debt mattered under Obama to artificially support the economy, then why not under Trump? Again, under Trump we have full employment, yet, we are running almost a one trillion dollar deficit to support GDP growth. Why?
7
The Feds were predicting 2% growth. What accounts for the huge discrepancy?
4
Fighting for free and fair trade was a risk Trump took, but it does not seem to have affected the economy adversely nor has it affected the downward trend in unemployment. Pro business, especially pro small business draconian regulations courageously removed by executive order in the past 2 years has only proved the fear mongering from 2 years ago was totally unfounded, admittedly it was political risk.
In this forum loaded with lefties and very few independents like me, giving credit to the robust current state of the economy would result in denial that Trump has earned appreciation and credit for at least retaining the momentum but beyond that to accelerating growth in the past 2 years and creating conditions for job growth.
Admit it my fellow Americans that all the long drawn investigations were a political hogwash by those who did not think that a president who had never held an elected office in the USA could govern. Trump has demonstrated that he can preserve all that was great about America while doing everything to change it to make it greater. Admittedly when Trump walked down the stairs with Melania to declare his run for president in 2015, I thought he was a joke. But after 25 months of Trump as president, I now after careful thought and consideration can say without a doubt that Trump meant business and he was dead serious about serving USA.
Democracy wins when elected leaders serve their people. Trump and Modi are currently examples of vibrant democracies.
29
@Girish Kotwal
middle income people are not feeling the "good news". check out the rest of the country where middle income people live.
15
Except 'vibrant' democracies are not presided over by an unnamed co-conspirator with multiple aliases whose number of mischaracterizations and lies are on par with his credible utterances.
9
@Girish Kotwal
I see the accountant/lawyer squeezed datasets are producing the desired effect. I suggest an intensely focussed reviewing of the film Network.
4
Growth is the mantra worshiped by too many economists and certainly too many conservatives. Since the deficit is growing again in large leaps and bounds...the GDP growth can be tied to the GOP's form of Keynesian spending.
Either way, the US is looking at the debt being over 100% of GDP for the foreseeable future. How is this not a concern?
8
So glad millionaires are continuing to do well.
10
@Daniel
So well in fact, that a lot of them are running for president!
1
We should enjoy this while we can. The fact of the matter is, debt, both corporate and public are at all-time highs, and the music will stop eventually. While our allies in Europe continue responsible, albeit meager growth, the U.S. and China risk global stability and synchronized global growth through debt-economics. There must be a government-orchestrated tapering, or the market will hit the breaks for us.
6
I frankly do not trust that any objective information can come out of this administration. Trump would throw a tantrum if any economic data did not support his campaign agenda. We have seen how he pressures the feds. How are we to believe that this not doctored information, aka propaganda?
15
Did I miss the part about our current deficit ?
19
@cp
The national deficit is close to one trillion dollars per year.
The national debt is about twenty-two trillion dollars.
(one trillion is one thousand times one billion.)
In case you did actually miss it.
Our national credit card has no limit. We continue to spend money we don’t actually have, but that we borrow from future generations.
Despite Trump's ridiculous trade wars the economy is fantastic. This is what most voters care about. I'm not voting for Trump but he will win in 2020.
I think the only person who can defeat Trump is Michael Bloomberg but he has unfortunately decided to not be a candidate.
5
@ML
You finally found something we can attribute to Obama!
@BobC
Check the debt. Check the deficit.
Thank you.
3
You can criticize Trump on many things, but this isn’t one of them.
We are very close to full employment, practically everyone I know is making money and a good deal of us are making a ton, based on that alone he’s got my vote .
31
@There. So the fact that he lies with impunity. And violates the Constitution and is determined to ignore Congressional subpoenas doesn’t bother you a bit? So much for the “law and order” part of Republican claims. We all know that only applies to some people because “everyone is equal but some are more equal than others.”
2
@There So if you had to base it on everything else, would he still get your vote? If the answer is yes, that's just sad.
2
From Michael Roberts' blog:
"[...] the biggest driver of the US stock market has been the major companies using this cheap finance to buy back their own shares to drive up the price and increase the ‘market value’ of the company. In 2018, buybacks reached $1.18trn, twice as much as was invested (after covering for worn out equipment) in productive capacity (plant, offices, equipment, software etc)."
Long story short: America's gains are happening mainly in the stratosphere of Wall Street and the financial departments of the big multinationals -- who are only growing because they are buying back their own shares.
14
The blog referenced discredits itself.
Saying that stock buybacks increase the market value of a company is simply wrong, at most it increases the share price while decreasing the number of shares. The blogs basic confusion between stock price and market value of the entire company is very telling.
Comparing total stock buybacks to those same companies investments in their business beyond depreciation only says that the companies are very strong financially which is good, not bad. There is nothing to suggest these same companies are underinvesting in their businesses.
7
What grows: corporations, stock market.
What does not: rural/non-corporate job markets.
That's what a tax cut only for corporations does.
22
Many Americans commenting here fail to realize that a "good economy" isn't the only determining factor of a country's wealth and prosperity -- but how it is divided among its entire population is.
17
@N. Smith,
Speak for yourself. Thank you.
I still can’t understand why economists can confuse growth in stock prices with growth in GDP. It makes especially no sense when much that growth had to do with stock buy backs based tax breaks and cheap money. Equally, the artificial boosted construction boom in commercial and high end real estate has nothing to do with economic health, especially when you then see unrented commercial spaces empty and unused for years.
6
like the 10 year recovery line ...
2
Who is benefitting from this? I sure don't feel any better off, quite the opposite.
26
@huh--some people are just never happy
19
@huh
Practically everyone I know is making a ton of money, or at least has a good job, if you’re left out of this boom then you’re doing something wrong and have to look at yourself, not the economy
25
Are you doing anything to make yourself better off such as starting a business or expanding an existing business?
Or do you expect to be better off just because you exist and your contributing to the production of the US is no more than last year?
10
GDP- Gross DOMESTIC Product
Where exactly is all this alleged domestic production taking place and why is none of it in my local stores?
10
It is in those white, nondescript vans you see on the streets delivering Amazon’s next day packages.
1
@Michael Blazin
Nope. Vast majority of Amazon stuff is also foreign made.
This "economy" is paper trading and "investing" in foreign lands oh and the smoke and mirrors tech industry with criminal enterprises like Uber being valued in the billions. The only thing tech is producing is new and better ways to make big brother real ASAP while giving the people as much tech based Vedic soma as they will willingly take. This "economy" has ZERO to do with America or building steel mills and proper factories that pay living wages and benefits here.
1
I like how every positive economic story the NY publishes always highlights the fact that whatever it is, it's part of a "10 year recovery", or some "long term trend"... in other words anything and everything to avoid any mention that Trump may have contributed.
42
@jdf I logged in to say the exact same thing - almost to the word - but as I always do, I scanned through existing comments first. Perfectly said.
17
@jdf Don't worry, Trump will take credit, no matter what the truth is.
13
@jdf Oh, has there been another recession in the past few years that I somehow missed? Didn’t think so. The fact is if you look at job growth numbers since December 2009 there has been steady improvement. So, 10-year recovery is a perfectly valid description. If you want me to say the economy has been good under Trump, very well. But I take that to mean only that he doesn’t done as badly as I feared, not that he’s done much to improve things. Unless you think an extra trillion dollars of debt to buy back stocks is an improvement.
16
All other things being equal, an increase in working population will increase GDP by the same proportion.
The key measure for any modern, technologically advanced economy is GDP per capita and the increase in GDP per capita — not total GDP and increase in GDP.
https://qz.com/1194634/the-world-bank-wont-stop-reporting-gdp-instead-of-gdp-per-capita-and-it-is-driving-me-crazy/
4
The economy is doing well, despite issues of who the gains are going to etc. I'm not going to discredit the numbers or Mr. Trump, whose economy this is. This is undoubtedly, good.
However, I would like to point out that last month, the US posted the largest (in numerical terms) monthly deficit in its history - $ 234 billion. Its one thing to have such deficits in a recession or wartime. To have this happen in a robust economy with low unemployment, a bull market, and historically low interest rates, should be very troublesome to all.
Note that this deficit is not being caused by investments in our future (e.g. infrastracture), but largely by corporations shirking their tax responsibilities and the wealthy doing the same. Not a peep from the "party of fiscal responsibility". All of us should be fearful of what would happen if any of these wobbly pillars should fail for any reason.
394
@newton
Does anyone have a comparison to GDP for that 234 billion deficit? How much is that?
4
@newton
We continue to have record tax revenue collected in this country. Month after month, quarter after quarter and year after year. So tell me again what is the cause of these gigantic deficits?
9
@bored critic
Deficit shrank by nearly 900 Billion with a Dem in the White house just a few years ago.
It has increased 77% just this year. Woops.
121
I am happy to see that the economy is doing well, but I am also fearful that this is not an accurate depiction of welfare in America. Each quarter we see reports about GDP growth, and each month there is significant coverage of how many jobs the economy added. But, there is no equivalent reporting of income inequality, poverty rates, hunger, homelessness, health outcomes, or quality of life- all of which matter greatly in a country as large and diverse as the United States. Too often we get sold this story that a booming economy is good news for everybody, but in an era where the top 0.1% accumulate an enormous amount of this "economic growth", that unfortunately isn't true. It is time we stop using GDP growth as a proxy for measuring welfare.
267
How about using numbers of people off food stamps? Because that’s down by half what is was during Obama.
20
@Kelly S.
Income inequality is much to do with the jobs that we create. We have laborer jobs (services) and white collar jobs .. the good paying middle class manufacturing jobs are the ones that are gone. They were spread all across the country to pick up labor across the USA,
My building in NYC is still full of the same well paid executives -- we still sell the same stuff .. we just don't make it in the USA.
Getting cheap stuff from China has a cost .. and it is going to have catastrophic consequences for the USA going forward
21
@Kelly S.--please describe how you would measure the economy and welfare. In detail, please
2
I have lived long enough to have experienced many stock market bubbles which burst.If a 5billion dollar fine is just change to Facebook and if Uber goes public at a 90 billion dollar valuation , one can see a reevaluation of the market coming- these are numbers not supported by reason and rigorous economic analysis.Everyone loves a market in the stratosphere -until they don’t.It is a perilous market because computers initiate trades-they can drop the market in minutes-beware!
6
Stock market is upside down for our upside down times: GDP grows again >3% but markets are slightly down. Why??
Because every investor is terrified that easy money will be just SLIGHTLY harder to access if the Fed raises rates 1/4 of a point again this year.
How "strong" a position our titans of industry must be in :-/
4
Powell has already ruled out any rate hikes this year....
2
Sure. "U.S. deficit grew 77% in first quarter of 2019" ?
10
Those who continue to try and credit Obama for our strong economy are just embarrassing themselves at this point.
44
@Mark
And those who deny it, can't do math -- since a ten-year recover predates Trump.
61
@Mark
I was unaware Trump had any impact on economic policy from 2008 to Jan. 2017. Impressive!
(See: sarcasm)
6
@N. Smith I don't think you have a coherent point.
Numbers in and of themselves mean little. What is that 10 year length stat supposed to prove in the absence of anything else? Even GDP growth annually is a measure of limited practical application as I explained above. Granted I only have an undergraduate degree in economics and not a doctorate, but I cannot think of any explanatory value provided by the 10 year length of the recovery, particularly as it relates to Presidential economic stewardship.
The President indirectly influences monetary policy by Fed nominations (although up until this moment the Fed was composed of professional economists with differing academic approaches and not political hacks like the latest nominee) and indirectly influences fiscal policy through the budget process.
If the President personally controlled monetary policy and unilaterally passed budgets (God forbid - the recipe for a banana republic), then, as monetary policy is immensely important and US government spending is around a third of GDP, we would have an excellent correlation between what a President does and GDP growth.
We don't live in that world so it's hard for me to see how attribution of credit in black and white terms makes any sense.
1
We better impeach Trump before 20-20. If the economy keeps growing like it is , he is a shoo in as President.
14
Having a moral compass is no longer a requirement in politics. We are living in sad times where we value the almighty dollar more than the starving child held in a cage away from his mother.
16
Obama also put children in “cages”. It’s obviously an abhorrent policy that no one wanted to participate in and has now been ended. The media has turned half the country’s minds to putty! People care about a good economy bc a good economy helps everyone.
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@First Gen
Where do you get your news? All of the policies in place by Obama to help refugees were undone by the man who pays off women to cover up affairs.
At least Obama did not need Russia to win an election.
5
But who got what? Countless working people continue to struggle to make ends meet while corporate profits are sky high.
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@Elliot Podwill Bread and circus. With a emphasis on the circus.
2
The higher than expected first qtr. GDP figure cannot entirely or even partially be related to the Fed's "Trump" capitulation on Jan. 3. There is a "lag" in interest rate policy, and besides, the Fed only raised its rate by ONE point during 2018 (as opposed to historically higher rates of increases going back a half century before 2008). Further, there was a substantial increase in energy costs during the first qtr. of the year which would normally be a drag on other consumer spending. The reality is that the economy was not slowing as much as been predicted, despite the Fed's waiving of the white flag and substantial drop in long-term interest rates. Wall St. gained back everything it lost in December, and once again, prudent savers and retirees have been totally screwed as virtually all the economic gains have gone to equity holders and the 1%. Perhaps Powell can dip the Fed's toe in the water once more and dare Wall St. and Trump to throw another tantrum.
5
Remember the immortal words of Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize winner in economics: "The economy will tank and the stock market will crash if Trump is elected". Still waiting for his apology, but not holding our collective breath.
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@paul
Not sure that Paul said it was going to be immediately. Took a while for Bush's tax cuts and deregulation to tank the economy. Trump is essentially doing the exact same thing. We'll be waiting for your apology when the next crash happens and a Democrat is elected to clean up the mess again.
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Wait for the revision downward.
1
@paul Proving that Nobel winning economists shouldn`t predict stock market moves, and nothing else!
2
Thank you, President Trump!
Let's face it, I personally don't like Donald Trump, the person (but does anyone like any politicians anyway?), but he is doing a great, great job as president. Our small business is making more money and paying less taxes than ever, our kids are fully employed are getting promotions and pay raises. For anyone who wants to work, there are now boundless opportunities.
How could I possibly vote for the Democrats?
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@TravelingProfessor
When running a trillion dollar yearly deficit spending, shouldn't the economy appear to be doing well?
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@TravelingProfessor Because the Democrats historically have better economies than Republicans. Trump had been in office for two years and pass a giant tax cut to stimulate an already growing economy. What else has he done?
9
@TravelingProfessor, Vote whatever way you want. Thank whomever you want.
3
3.2 growth is an impressive number. That must explain why everyone is so happy and contented these days.
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They really are content. Remember only about six percent of the country watches cables news and of that Fox is actually pulling double what all the other networks are. The only ppl not content are a small percentage of vocal Democrats
3
Note how each of the quarterly figures during the Obama era in 2015 and 2016 barely, if ever, go above 2%. Note how almost all the quarterly figures since Trump became President are above 2%.
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@TermiNader
Republican stimulus of a trillion a year deficit.
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@Jose Pieste
They were impossible 8 years ago during the recovery. Now that we have recovered (thanks to Obama's stimulus package - yes, that Obama policy) there can be higher growth.
Nice try!
10
Trump has done nothing good for the economy. For the last six years of Obama's presidency, when the Republicans controlled Congress, they refused to cooperate with him at all. On the budget, this created the "sequester." As a consequence, restricted government spending was a serious drag on the economy for those six years. After Trump was elected, they opened up the floodgates--not only by lowering taxes, but by also increasing spending. This huge combination fiscal boost fully explains the "booming" economy (also the booming deficit).
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@bmz This comment is the very definition of reality denial. By the way, the federal debt grew from less than $10 trillion to more than $19 trillion during the eight years of the Obama administration.
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@paul
The deficit was $1.4 trillion in 2009 (thanks to Bush) and 585 billion, with a B, in 2016 (thanks to Obama).
You are in denial my friend.
7
@Tom: Federal debt, not the annual deficit was sighted. There is vast a difference there, my friend. Debt is the long term accumulation of federal obligations to pay. Deficits are excess spending in any one year over the congressionally budgeted amounts. My federal debt figures sighted are real. Do some research before making partisan pronouncements.
6
Of course a President gets the blame for downturns and credit for the upticks without earning either.
But is our House of Representatives really willing to take the chance that the President plays no part in the economy as they not only go on strike against him, but try to actively get him kicked out?
Unless, of course, they don't care about the economy and are focusing ONLY on the 2020 elections??
6
That’s great, but why are we still struggling? We can’t afford vacations and “extras” and I know many others who are the same.
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@Mike James
So these numbers represent corporate profits? Or wage gains?
12
@Mike James Europeans have twice our amount of paid holidays and a severance payment when they get fired.
Despite full employment, we are not making progress on these issues.
24
@RPThese numbers are all smoke and mirrors, adding insult to injury to working Americans.
9
Would like to see a NYT article analyzing exactly how reliable the figures coming out of the Departments of Commerce/Labor/etc are in the Trump era. We know that these departments are headed by Trump loyalists and that the President has put unprecedented pressure on the Federal Reserve. Multiple agencies such as FDA and EPA have been encouraged to accept reasoning based on unsound scientific principles. Is it beyond the realm of possibility that our economic agencies have been pressured to release data that cast the President’s economy in the best possible light?
166
Fully agree -
Trump spent years saying the government lied about everything. He lies almost every time he opens his mouth. Now he has a cadre of people around him convicted of lying. And his Secretary of Commerce is Wilbur Ross? As if he has never been accused of lying - just google ethics Wilbur Ross to your heart's content.
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@Andy Ma ~
I actually think the vast majority of people who do the data work for these numbers are long-term employees, and have been there through various political changes.
You know, intelligent and independent inhabitants of the swamp.
I do think the GDP numbers are based on raw data, and not "seasonally adjusted" that the most common BLS report about jobs uses.
If there were balant manipulations by those higher up, I would think issues would be raised.
6
"The homeland security secretary, Kirstjen Nielsen, told a House panel last month that “we’ve never had a policy for family separation.”CreditCreditSarah Silbiger/The New York Times"
You are probably right but its not like it doesn't happen and sometimes, it takes a few days to come out from the dedicated people below them.
3
Looks like Trump was saved by the evil FED again at least in the short run.
Trump wanted the FED to drastically lower the rates so the economy could have a faux take off for next yrs. election and then crash.
They did not.
Insane trade wars, massive federal debt, no real economic leadership, the end will come.
It is just a matter of when and how bad.
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@Paul
Drastically lower rates are the reason behind it? Your partisanship has rendered you blind to easily verified facts.
8 Fed increases in 2 years following Trumps 2016 election after a single .25 increase in the previous 10 years.
Up to 60 billion in Quant tightening a month after 4.5 T in easing.
Trump has achieved the impossible despite far tighter Fed intervention than Obama.
9
I wonder how much of this increased "consumer spending" is recovery after our natural disasters? Replacing items lost in hurricanes, fires, floods and the like?
20
10 year recovery momentum. Assuming basic math skills, Republicans should be able to recognize under which administration this recovery became reality.
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@Suzanne Moniz
Obama was the first president in 80 years to have a grand total of zero years of three percent or greater growth in GDP.
24
@CK And? Why is that a magic number? The fact is that Obama inherited an economy that was in a deep, deep hole. The lowest point was December 2009; from then on, 16 million jobs were added under his watch, at a per-monthly rate that Trump hasn’t really managed to budge. Frankly, we’re still in the Obama recovery, except with a tax cut that mostly went to buying back stocks.
Why do I suspect that, if Trump had taken office during the Great Recession, and ended his term with Obama’s economic numbers, you would praise him to the skies?
22
@CK
Seriously! Obama had to dodge Great Depression 2. Where were you?
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