This is an easy answer. Hispanics are HARD working individuals. They don't want government handouts...they want economic opportunity to excel. In short...they are too smart to buy the democrats poor me nonsense.
18
Trump's hostility towards the Hispanic community is consistent from his entry into politics by claiming Obama was born in Kenya then announcing his presidential run by claiming Mexicans were rapist murders and taking jobs away from poor whites. Today Trump is attacking Puerto Rico has lazy and leaching off the USA. Trump is obsessed over Hispanics invading America and walls and troops are needed to face down these starving toddlers. Trump as you may have noticed is a racist and demagogue and the world is watching as we elect such an unfit person to lead the western world. Dem candidates need to point out Trump's anti Hispanic rhetoric and actions every day on the campaign trail.
I refer you to Stockholm syndrome:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome
3
This piece should have dealt with the real issue; why do Latinos turn out in such abysmal numbers. Less than 40% turn up to vote. If they turned out at even a 50% rate, both the Senate and House would be filled with Democrats, and the abomination in the White House would be on his “throne” in Trump Tower (or in jail) rather than the Oval Office. The Democrats don’t have a problem gaining massive majority support from Latino voters. America has a problem getting Latinos to be voters.
1
Hispanics have always been smart about not putting all of their eggs in the democrat basket. Hispanics are not children who fall for the lies the press and the liberals tell when they say Trump and the republicans hate Brown people. That shopworn trope, of the left, falls on deaf ears. The party of Lincoln is the party of anti racism. The dems created the KKK,segregation, Jim crow, sicced dogs on little black school girls, put Japanese Americans in internement camps. The real worry for dems is how many blacks are now reconsidering their votes for democrats who make promises every 4 years and then do nothing. Trump has already passed prison reform and helped create investment zones in poor black neighborhoods. Many blacks are taking notice
8
If the fundamental premise of identity politics is valid, then why did Sandra Day O'Conner and Clarence Thomas vote to put George Bush in office?
Furthermore I'm a 65 year old white guy who never has, and never will, vote Republican, no matter how often I am insulted as a racist, sexist, stupid, dinosaur, by the party I have so long supported. I'll take it for the team, but sheesh, the generalizing gets old pretty quick.
7
All Latinos are not the same. Miami happens to be where the Cuban latinos nest. They opt for republicans because they've had enough Castro to kill a socialistic thought. Try asking the latinos that trump is trying to stop in their tracks; the ones from Mexico and Latin America. I think you'll find a difference of oppinion there.
5
Hispanics are not stupid. They want jobs. They know the damage bad ideas bring.
16
Democrats have Three problems with the Hispanic Voters and thye are NOT solveable unless Democrats change their DNA.
1) Hispanics are NOT swayed any more by the Identity Politics. They saw a Black Man become President and there are several Hispanic Senators and Congressmen.
2) Hispanics realize that the Democrats offer Freebees to buy their votes but it only hurts them in the long run as it takes away incentive from them to compete and keeps them in the Barrios when all is said and done.
3) ILLEAGAL IMMIGRATION hurts the Hispanic community the most. These ILLEAGALS take jobs away from poor, mostly high school educated or drop outs. So, the Democrats supporting Open Borders is contrary to what the Democrats think will sway the Hispanics in their favor.
If any thing; the Democrats will keep loosing the Hispanic votes.
14
Perhaps some Hispanics look at Democrats and their ceaseless enabling and encouragement of personal, societal, and cultural dysfunction and find that not to their liking.
13
How many Latinos read (or indeed, can read) the NY Times? I bet not many. It sounds like the Democrats are not using the Latino media enough to inform Hispanics of Trump's vitriol. Haven't they learned anything from Fox News?
1
It's an excellent question.
1. In the case of the Cubans in Miami... they are so entrenchedly conservative that anything that even smells of democracy is suspect. The younger Cubans are improving but not by much.
2. There is a long legacy of conservatism tied to the catholic church.
3. But mainly, many Hispanics haven't realized that voting for Republicans is shooting yourself in the foot for them, because Republicans take away the only programs that can further the Hispanic population along.
2
I didn't see the word "abortion" once in this article, or the word "Catholic." What's up with that?! I think we need to use better categories to analyze voting history. The racial breakdown is useless, a red herring even.
The problem of candidates being racist carries less weight when you approach it figuring that they are all racist, which sadly I'd think many people, and especially minorities, assume. "Who cares if they're racist? Aren't they all?" Just like they are "all corrupt and on the take."
3
I'm confused. Are all "hispanics" of like mind on all issues. Are all expected to share the same opinions on what is important to America? I find these repetitive opinions telling Americans what party they are most likely to support based on their race almost offensive.
11
Thomas, I kept reading your article and waiting in vain for you to MAKE A POINT! All you do here is state a bunch of poling data and opinions. How about you spend a little time exploring 'WHY' Latinos either don't vote, or vote democrat OR republican? I'm an american or Mexican (and Irish) decent. My father was born in Mexico - that should give you an idea of how close this is to my heart and soul. People, like yourself, who just jump to the 10k ft level analysis and wonder why democrats don't get 80 to 90% of the Hispanic vote do no favor to the democrats, and add little to the conversation and/or analysis. Get off your back side and do the hard work. Asking the right questions may yield a better analysis - and a better article. Oh, and no, I'm, not going to tell you the questions to pole...but maybe some if you read some of the respondents input, you may find guidance.
5
It shows that "identity" politics is a tricky issue.
Even Hispanics who are in this country have a "I got mine jack" attitude and would rather secure their place on the ladder than let others start to climb.
The secret though is to campaign to Latinos the same way you campaign to the Reality Show Con Artist supporters in the Midwest.
You let them know that you are protecting them at the borders with actual working ideas not false issues like a wall; you are protecting their working rights by strengthening unions; you are protecting their healthcare by supporting the Affordable Care Act; you are protecting their Social Security and not calling it an "entitlement" to be cut; you are protecting their rights to gather and worship by appointing reasonable judges and curbing police overreach.
You can't count on people to care about "others" but you can count on them to care about themselves.
1
Lumping all 'hispanics' together & saying they'should' vote Democratic is insulting. In fact, they are different races, from a variety of countries & only a minority are immigrants.
11
Mr. O'Rourke calls himself Beto.
Can anyone tell me why?
10
Mayor Pete Buttigieg speaks fluent Spanish.
45%+ of his constituents are non-white many of whom are Hispanic. He meets with them and tries to figure out how to support them.
He understands how to communicate with Latinos and has a good grasp of their worldviews, for they are an enormous community with many worldviews.
Here he is broadcasting live in Spanish on Radio Sabor Latino, South Bend, Indiana.
https://www.facebook.com/PeteButtigiegSB/photos/a.691354410875681/1749974215013690/?type=1&theater
2
Sadly, it is about abortion. Hispanics, who basically have been since birth, indoctrinated into the belief that birth control is evil, as all sexual encounters are supposed to be about conceiving a child, aren't going to vote for the pro abortion, pro choice group of politicians. The fact that the Catholic Church has promoted no birth control, which has been the direct driver of poverty across the globe, including in Central and South America, Mexico, etc. That is why over 15 million of them have come across our southern border, as we have generous food debit cards, housing vouchers, free Medicaid, and education, so what the Democratic Party thought would be votes in their pocket, maybe not so much. Giving more and more tax credits, and thus checks at tax time for families, means they will vote both their pocketbook, and their faith when they can.
3
These Edsall analyses are too long and convoluted. The first half of the piece can be summarized as "Democrats in Florida took the Hispanic vote for granted." I can't summarize the rest because I ran out of patience and stopped reading.
4
Why? I can think of some reasons-
A recently naturalized American Citizen once told me the most anti illegal immigrant people were recently naturalized American citizens
If your ancestors came from Mexico 100 years ago, do you still consider yourself Hispanic? Do people and politicians identify you that way? Do people of Italian, German, Irish etc descent have to vote as a block based on some ancestor who came here 200 years ago?
I seem to have read that a lot of Cubans in Florida vote republican based on the Republlican anti communist stance. Wasn't there a time when Republicans were fervent anti communists and not in love with current strong men dictators from formerly communist nations?
Trading loudmouth narcissist empty suit democrats for loudmouth empty suit republicans doesn't solve any issues either.
2
What a pointless articles. here's your answers Mr. Edsall:
#1) Hispanics will vote their religion. See abortion. See Roman Catholic. This means "Republican".
#2) Most Hispanics are NOT here for jobs. They want economic opportunity. I.e....operate a business. In the long run, that does not mean "Democrat".
7
Truth of the matter is this: When they get a smell of all the money they vote Republican, its the same reason the old are mostly repubs. The love of money is the root of all evil plain and simple.
One of the key things that this country needs very badly is for Hispanic people to vote Republican. This applies especially to immigrants. Most of the Hsipanic immigrants, legal or illegal,
are coming here to, lets be fair about this, get rich. That's legally or illegally. And they are not stupid. If they succeed, as history says the legal ones eventually will, they will tend
to vote Republican.
The Democrats have to depend on the hope that the ones who come illegally will get legalized, and stay poor, as poor is what the Democrats absolutely need to create a reliable base. If they get legalized and get rich, all hope for the leftist
Ocasio-Cortez wing of the party is doomed.
4
What's Gov. Bill Richardson doing these days?
1
The trend in Cuban voting patterns is mystifying to the White population but not the Latino one.
You have to recognize the diversity (including racial diversity) in the Latino community. We tend to think of each other as White, Black, Indigenous, or some mix thereof.
That one of the whitest Latino communities— Cubans— have cast their lot with the Republicans/the people who they see as their racial brethren is unsurprising.
We are not all the same. Some people in our communities also believe that skin color should dictate rights.
Mr. Edsall, just look at the leadership from the DNC to the leadership in Congress and you'll find your answer. Weak. Corrupt. Beholden to their corporate donors. Empty of bold policy initiatives to make the lives of the average American easier and address the problems we face as a country. Platitudes, incrementalism (code to their donors that "Don't worry, nothing will change") and identify politics are all they have to offer.
4
All of this is not the way we should be focused. Why do you assume Hispanic's vote on different issues in different ways than non-Hispanics? This slice and dice our people into separate groups should be frowned upon not encouraged. Yet the media keeps perpetuating it and as along as it does, the politicians will follow.
What happened to the great "melting pot" of a nation?
3
Wow, a bunch of media members who live in a few cities and socialize exclusively with the rich and famous don’t have a pulse on what the majority of Americans want? What a shock!
8
The question is not why don't they...the question is why should they?
4
Latinos are different to other etnias. We come from different countries and therefore we have among us some differences and because of that we do not come together and act with unity.
Also most of us want to become US citizens to bring ours closest families to the US. Not to exercise ours rights and duties and to get involve en the political activities.
Finally de Democratic Party give for granted that latinos are in a big number democrats and they do not get involve in ours communities. That apply to those latinos "leaders" in the Democratic Party.
3
I believe that the terms "Latino" and "Hispanic" are too broad. Perhaps Mexican, Cuban, Argentinian, Brazilian, Puerto Rican, Central American might provide much finer data. Also, age groups and generation in the US might also provide clearer data. Saying "Hispanic" is like saying North American or European, it is an average that misses the important detailed characteristics. Older Cubans in Florida may have different concerns than younger Mexicans in Texas and hurricane victims from Puerto Rico.
5
How much of this is well documented efforts by Republicans to suppress the votes from minorities?
It would have been interesting to hear from a single Latino Republican voice amidst the six different Democratic-leaning polling groups, who all seem absolutely baffled by support for a president they'll label "clearly anti-Latino and racist" at the drop of a hat.
Maybe there's more ideological diversity amongst Latinos than what we hear spewed by a handful of left-leaning political operatives?
5
My friend David Lopez tells me it boils down to abortion. The Hispanic community leans catholic. Those who prioritize banning abortion at all costs will vote that way. That includes Hispanics.
2
It would help this discussion immensely if the commenters were to spend a minute with actual polling data.
1. Marist Poll - see page 3 of this report that shows 50% of Latinos "approve of Donald J. Trump's performance as president" - link:
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll-USA-NOS-and-Tables_1901141631-1.pdf#page=1
2. Politico: "A new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll found Trump’s approval rebounding to 45 percent overall, with Hispanic approval jumping sharply—to 42 percent..."
Link:
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2019/trump-approval-rating-polls/
3. McLaughlin Online - see page 7, 50% job approval rating for Trump among Hispanics - link:
http://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/National-MA-Monthly-Omnibus-March-Release.pdf
8
Two things this article ignores.
Hispanics are good in the business world and as they advance so do their incomes and the amount of taxes they pay and the more they want those taxes reduced.
These people will therefore will be more likely to vote Republican for obvious reasons.
Most Hispanics are Catholic or more to the point Roman Catholic. The Catholic church is against abortion. So are the Republicans.It should not be a surprise that a Catholic would vote for a Republican because of this. Why would you think Hispanic Catholics would not do the same.
There are many reasons Hispanics will vote Republican and being Hispanic when the Hispanic community becomes more American will become very insignificant in how they will identify themselves and how they will vote.
6
Who is a Latin American? Is it anyone with an Hispanic last name? If so, the terminology equally includes upper middle and professional classes from Madrid, Spain, as well as impovershed indigenous people from Central America. Is that intended? I doubt it, but we are so compelled to label people that members of those highly divergent groups are lazily put into the same category.
Is it any wonder that groups do not display the homogeneous qualties we so quickly ascribe to them? Yet, we insist on assuming that single issues will be perceived the same way by people who are placed in a category that we create and define.
Immigration is not the pressing issue for most Latin Americans, no matter where their origin. The individual people care about their everyday existence, and are far far more concerned by economic factors, for example, than immigration.
No group is homogeneous, nor is inclusion in a group determined by a single litmus test, regardless of what politicians tell us.
5
@Gino G, thank you . . .
This analysis is sadly one dimensional. Edsall, who is usually, very astute, collapses "Latinos" into a block. Let's set aside the substantial differences in culture, values, and attitudes between Puerto Ricans, Cubans, Mexicans, Central Americans, and South Americans (and even those categories are overly broad). Consider them in the same way you would do any political analysis. What is their religion, their education, their status, their income, their geographic distribution, their ancestry, the number of generations their family has been in the country, their legal status, and their attitudes on the cultural questions that divide the country? These are all critical factors in predicting political sentiments, and most of them would cause substantial numbers of "Latinos" to tilt away from Democrats. They avoid voting Democratic despite Trump, and because they don't like much of what the Democratic party represents.
7
From the perspective of a Latino-American, there is another perspective on this that I don't see anyone bringing up, but which is obvious to any Latino in the US. There are huge differences between white, well-to-do Latinos, such as you'd find in long-term Cuban and South American immigrants and wealthy Mexican immigrants; and brown-skinned Latinos with substantial indigenous heritage from Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean.
There is intense colorism and discrimination within the Latino community. Well-off white Latino families tend to be more conservative and anti-immigration than many white families I know, and they jealously guard this "white-adjacency" to further themselves from the more disadvantaged Latino community.
Edsall makes the mistake many white pundits do in describing the Latino community. They continually envision some monolithic community whose face is brown and vaguely indigenous. The reality is that Latino society in the US is fairly stratified along ethnic and economic lines.
38
@Ian
Very well said!
And you could add that new immigrants are less likely to vote, while multi-generational families are more likely to be conservative.
And don't underestimate the cultural conservatism of Catholic Latinos. Many are uncomfortable with the Democratic emphasis on LGBTQ rights and abortion rights. (AOC is certainly an exception, but she is a rarity.)
And never forget that many (if not most) Latinos do not regard themselves as a "minority" to be protected, especially those who are educated and light skinned. These are people comfortable in the mold of white America; they don't share an identity with dark-skinned newcomers. Ian makes this point, but it deserves repeating.
3
Obvious to anyone who is a person and see other people as persons. Those who insist on putting everyone in boxes in up seeing only boxes.
Putting everyone in a box because their ancestors spoke Spanish and expecting their brain waves to therefor synchronize is ignorant and dehumanizing.
Do all Cajuns vote together because their ancestors lived under Spanish rule and spoke French and sometimes Spanish? Do all English speaking people whose ancestors lived under the British throne think and vote as a tribe? It is truly blinkered.
1
@Ian
I would add that many coming from Latin America are Evangelical Christians and social conservatives. So I wouldn't assume that Hispanics line up behind a progressive agenda just because they are Hispanic.
2
On the one hand, Democratic party leaders have for too long been complacent and lazy, happy to embrace conventional wisdom peddled by high-paid experts and media pundits.
Shame on them.
On the other, too many Hispanic-Americans are single-issue voters who are willing to overlook what is 95% bad in favor of 5% good in parites and candidates.
Shame on them.
10
I'm Hispanic, and my Hispanic relatives are all over the map when it comes to politics and religion. Some are Catholic, some are Jehovah's Witnesses, some belong to Soka Gakkai (Buddhist) and some are atheist. Some are conservative and some are liberal.
12
A Republican president fought a civil war to end slavery and in the 50's and 60's the Republican party led the charge in civil rights even casting more votes for the Civil Rights Act, than Democrats. In recent times Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden spoke to black audiences in a black southern "lingo" that was nothing short of demeaning to all blacks
Let's face it, the Republican Party has done the worst possible job allowing the Democrats to demagogue and lie it's way into the black voting block. Perhaps Latins are thinking more carefully about what the Democratic Party really stands for these day and will begin to vote for the party that wants immigrants to fly above the radar (not below it, in fear) and take advantage of everything this country has to offer them and their families.
Even Cesar Chavez and MLK railed against illegal immigration because they understood the damage done to the people they advocated for ....
11
@JAC,
Maybe, most African-Americans recognized the Republican hypocrisy with their dog whistles and racial animus after Nixon implemented his Southern Strategy and faux War on Drugs after his 1968 election. There's the reason that the Dixiecrats turned into Republiklans.
Also, Democrats and the sane Rs that are left see the need for another Immigration Reform law. One bill was passed in the Senate under BHO. Under the Hastert rule, Boehner would not let it come to a vote in the House as a majority of the Rs would not vote for it. It would have passed with sufficient votes by the Democratic representatives.
@JAC -- the Democratic party of the early 1960s included the Southern Democrats: Jesse Helms was a Democrat then. After the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and partcularly after Nixon won the nomination with his "southern strategy" they all switched, creating the party that led to Trump.
We count "Hispanics" via self-identification on survey forms. That does not mean that everyone checking that box has either a common set of experiences or a strong ethnic identity.
I have no objection to America becoming "majority-minority", but that simply is NOT happening in any meaningful sense anytime soon even in places like California. People are more complex than the models of Census Bureau demographers (and most demographers outside Census would agree).
5
@Mark R.
The “majority” has been maintained even this long only by re-identification. Once upon a time, “white” didn’t include Italians or Jews. The French-Indians were once thought of as other than white by American immigrants to Louisiana, but thought of themselves as white.
The local school system under federal court jurisdiction for 40 years for desegregation classified all children as “black” or “non-black” and assigned children accordingly. Two generations of that has done little for true integration of black students but has accomplished much more in that the Anglo-Saxon, Asian, Indian, and Hispanic students all think of each other as “white” and are socially integrated without discernible tribalism.
1
"-half of Latinos (48 percent) believe there is about the right amount of immigrants living in the U.S., while a quarter say there are too many immigrants and 14 percent say there are too few."
This is the closest the article comes to one of the most important factors: a huge segment of the Latino population in the US, those who went through the grueling, years-long process of obtaining green cards or citizenship, resents the flood of immigrants crossing over the border and using up scant resources to take care of them. There is no lack of sympathy for their plight - simply the fact that immigrants crossing improperly are not using the same channels that established immigrants did rubs them the wrong way. In that sense, they align completely with the Republican platform.
12
It is dangerous for Democrats to assume that ethnic solidarity means that Latino citizen voters and potential voters will automatically identify with the interests of Latinos who are unable to immigrate legally, or give those interests predominance over their own economic and cultural concerns. This is a demographic with a high proportion of traditional religious believers, ambitious entrepreneurs, and supporters of historic gender roles, in short, the kind of cultural conservatives who could easily be attracted to the GOP but for the Republicans' increasingly vocal white nationalism.
9
The real question should be, why are Hispanics still supporting Republicans.
If you're able to vote, able to drive, able to work, able to function in society you should be able to evaluate each candidate and vote intelligently. Voting along party lines because your parents do or your neighbors do is silly. You're better off not voting and let the intelligent members of society select elect our representatives.
3
@James "The real question should be, why are Hispanics still supporting Republicans." For those who are small business owners or hope to be, their class interests favor small government and low taxes. For those who are either practicing Roman Catholics or Pentecostals, their religious values are opposed to abortion and to secular views about sexual freedom. For those who hold traditional attitudes about gender roles, machismo and feminism don't mix very well. All of those values skew Republican. If the GOP weren't so blatantly white nationalist, it would get a lot more Latino support than it now does.
7
@JackCerf,
Those supposed Republican and "cultural" values are discriminatory based on American values. Under the First Amendment,no birth control/abortion laws should be passed to allow certain citizens to impose their religious beliefs that affect others' health, lifestyle and religious beliefs that differ.
They are also anti-Christian based on Jesus' Second Greatest Commandment "'Love thy neighbor as thyself!" I was taught for 12 years by mostly Franciscan nuns that all people were created in God's image.
Perhaps, Democrats should do the RIGHT thing on Hispanic issues, like undocumented 11million immigrants and then wait for whatever happens.
I consider myself a liberal Democrat. But with regard to undocumented immigrants, I have no interest in "Path-to-Citizenship." Most undocumented want to be legal and come out of the shadows, and move about freely, go to the country of their birth & legally return. Path-to-Citizenship clause hinders that goal. Democrats won't budge on it.
If Democratic leaders care about the Hispanic agony & anguish, they would withdraw that & negotiate with Republicans to have a fair, comprehensive immigration law.
There's nothing wrong to allow Central Americans who flee violence & poverty to be allowed in. They wouldn't mind if they're "Second Class" immigrants provided the law protects them and can visit their countries as they please. If anyone breaks the law, black-list him & never allow him back in. No gang members should be allowed in.
These things are humane measures, which most countries allow: Look at the millions of Syrian refugees flocked to Jordan, Lebanon & Turkey during the Syrian conflict since 2011.
Why can't we admit Hondurans who refuse to join gangs and flee for their lives, taking such long arduous journeys?
2
Why are these analyses always done on the basis of race and ethnicity, with the result that we scratch our heads over why people don't vote as an ethnic block? Could it possibly be that people vote based on their individual preferences, interests and worldviews, instead of their skin color or ancestry? I am always confused and dismayed by this condescending tendency to lump people into categories based on how they look, and then assume they should vote like other people who look like them.
It's to be expected that poorer Hispanics would vote Democrat while richer ones would vote Republican. There is also the fundamental conflict between Hispanics' social conservatism and the economic progressivism most of them stand to benefit from. In the case of Trump, I believe many Latinos believed that Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party weren't offering them much in terms of concrete benefits, while Trump spoke to their conservative social values. The real lesson for Democrats is the same refrain that it always is: It's the economy, stupid. Democrats frankly need to let go of the gay wedding cake and transgender bathroom controversies, stop saying you must be pro-choice to be a Democrat, stop obsessing over race and gender (see above) and get back to real pocket book economic issues that will help the vast majority of the population, so they can sweep the Rust Belt, the Hispanic vote, and every other non-millionaire constituency. Health care is a good starting point.
7
The underperformance of Democrats among Latino voters mirrored their overall underperformance in the midterm elections. I believe the Democrats could have won an historic midterm victory had they nationalized the election around the economic populist message.
The Party establishment declined to do this out of fear of alienating suburban voters. This unwise decision led to a relatively modest midterm victory in which the Party lost many winnable U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, especially in Florida.
The Party establishment has been resisting the young, energetic, and growing progressive movement ignited by Bernie Sanders’s surprisingly successful 2016 presidential run. Were it not for the overwhelming evidence that this movement is not an aberration I would not blame Party elites for being skeptical.
However, Bernie, Elizabeth Warren, and key progressive economists have clearly moved the political discourse acceptably to the left by calling out the flaws of shareholder capitalism. By the midterms last year, most of our top-tier presidential contenders had already signed on to the economic populist agenda. Clearly, the Clinton Era “New Democrat” embrace of Reaganomics has run its course.
Had the Party targeted Latino restaurant workers, hotel workers, hospital workers, retail workers, and day laborers in Florida with the promise of a serious fight for higher wages, Gillum and Nelson would have won their races. The Democratic Party establishment must wake up!
6
@Howard Gregory Both Gillum and Nelson ran lazy campaigns especially among Latino voters in Florida. Taking the Latino vote for granted, Perhaps. But as many writers have pointed out: Latino voters are not a monolithic group. They are as diverse as is the native, white Americans who all came to our country from distant shores. A clearer understanding of that, plus serious, dilligent campaigning in Latino neighborhoods might have gotten the lazy Gillum and Nelson campaigns to the finish line first.
I think we all need to stop blaming victims and finding scapegoats.
Republicans have been as bad about immigration as Democrats, or, I should say, much worse. They don't acknowledge that "those people" are fully human. Some of them seem to think there is nothing worse than a Democrat (this includes pedophiles etc.).
Trump's defunding US efforts to help Central America deal with its dysfunction and violence is bound to make more desperate people. [He is also a walking talking recruiting poster for terr'ists, but that's beside the point.]
One of our biggest exports is guns and violence, and training for extralegal police behavior.
As for Christians, I can't agree that an "Evangelical" who is all about the success doctrine, exclusion, blaming the poor and other victims for their plight, and giving the "widow's mite" to the pastor and his organization is Christian. I suggest reading the Gospels, which are short, repetitive, and to the point, and following Jesus.
Whited sepulchers, casters of first stones, moneychangers in the temple, the good Samaritan, and the Sermon on the Mount, as well as turning the other cheek and leaving the judgment to god (coals of fire) ... help the less fortunate, etc.
Hypocrisy, and believing the voices in your head are god speaking with you, are not good guides, despite the example Senate Republicans give you, or Netanyahu boosters, or lovers of dictators who jail, torture, and kill their enemies.
Blaming victims will solve nothing.
4
The women Democratic candidates made efforts to reach out to all voters in 2018. From the article, the two major male Democratic candidates in Florida failed to do so.
This was only the start of the required Democratic outreach. For decades, they allowed the Republican / Libertarian propaganda to be ingrained in too many voters as the truth. I know that it infected most of my numerous relatives, especially since Reagan with a false and stupid sense of superiority. This contradicts the humility and teachings of Jesus, which I learned after 12 years of education by mostly Franciscan nuns.
The Democrats should never consider just barely winning again. To offset the propaganda from certain TV and radio outlets AND the Russian efforts online, the Democrats cannot assume anything. They'll need to continue the explanation of their policies for decades.
This is needed to obtain majorities and pass laws and amendments to The Constitution to require vetting of candidates. We certainly don't need a future (but smarter) DJT who capitalized on the Rs' hate and fear tactics since Nixon's Southern Strategy. At the same time RMN started the "War" on drugs, which minimized LBJ's polices for the War on Poverty.
I cannot think of a single R policy that benefits all Americans. (Since Democrats don't have policies to force people to have an abortion, that's another issue that the candidates must explain. )
1
This article demonstrates a glaring flaw in all studies of "Hispanic" and "Latino" voting patterns, i.e., it does not - and miserably fails to - define what is a Latino or Hispanic. These studies presuppose "Latinos" and "Hispanics" all share the same identity and cultural background. Nonsense. To give an example, I have a friend who is from Argentina; he was defined as "Hispanic" on the last census even though his background is European - German and Italian. He shares nothing in the way of cultural or social background with, say, a Central American. There are a multitude of different ethnic groups that these studies lump together under the Latino and Hispanic umbrella. So, when results appear to be counterintuative, the bean counters scratch their heads and attribute deviations from pre-conceived results to lackluster campaigning or some other ridiculous explanation.
2
Articles like this handwringing about why Latinos, a vastly diverse group ethnically, religiously, politically, and culturally, don't automatically support Democrats will only do more to drive them away.
4
Being a Floridian and a neighbor to many Hispanics, I thought I might add an insight. A lot of Hispanics I've met are Pentacostal Christians. And Pentacostals in general are very much in the bag for Donald Trump. It is pretty much an article of faith for Pentacostals (I would imagine even more so than for Evangelicals) that Donald Trump is God's prophet and representative on Earth. This is of course maddening to me, a Christian who is able to easily see through this charlatan. But my guess is that Pentacostals are already accustomed to lying scam artists at their pulpits. It's not much of a trip for them to have one as President.
2
The underperformance of Democrats among Latino voters mirrored their overall underperformance in the midterm elections. I believe the Democrats could have won an historic midterm victory had they nationalized the election around the economic populist message.
The Party establishment declined to do this out of fear of alienating suburban voters. This unwise decision led to a relatively modest midterm victory in which the Party lost many winnable U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, especially in Florida.
The Party establishment has been resisting the young, energetic, and growing progressive movement ignited by Bernie Sanders’s surprisingly successful 2016 presidential run. Were it not for the overwhelming evidence that this movement is not an aberration I would not blame Party elites for being skeptical.
However, Bernie, Elizabeth Warren, and key progressive economists have clearly moved the political discourse acceptably to the left by calling out the flaws of shareholder capitalism. By the midterms last year, most of our top-tier presidential contenders had already signed on to the economic populist agenda. Clearly, the Clinton Era “New Democrat” embrace of Reaganomics has run its course.
Had the Party targeted Latino restaurant workers, hotel workers, hospital workers, retail workers, and day laborers in Florida with the promise of a serious fight for higher wages, Gillum and Scott would have won their races. The Democratic Party establishment must wake up!
The error of this article is that with the exception of Cubans, it considers Latino voters to be monolithic. That's far from the truth. There are large wealth differences among Hispanic heritage voters and large world/social view differences depending on their family history how they came to be US citizens and their religious identification. Those factors result in sharp political differences. Yes, you can lump them all together and create a statistic of that lumped group's voting patterns. But that only poorly predicts the down ballot voting results.
2
It is hardly surprising that Democrats can’t take the multiple Hispanic votes for granted.
The Puerto Ricans who left the island in the wake of Maria are more likely to be striving, successful people. The Venezuelan-Americans see how little Democrats care about human rights once socialism is involved. Mexican-Americans are also mostly strivers, socially conservative, and much more religious (Protestant as well as Catholic) than the leaders of the Democratic Party, who tend to be anti-religious.
Then you add in the extreme man-bashing practiced by Democratic officeholders and cadres, which Hispanic men and many women will not tolerate.
5
It certainly puts the kibosh on the widespread belief than Republicans are doomed by demographics unless they dramatically change course and embrace immigration reform. Instead, they ignored the advice of the 2013 "autopsy" and doubled down on their entrenched positions, and it was quite a successful strategy. They didn't drive 80-90% of Hispanics to the Dems as predicted, but they did raise their share of the white vote to 70-80% in many areas of the country. True, they lost the House in 2018, but not by being swamped by Dem Hispanic votes. I suspect one reason is that many Hispanics run small businesses, and you can't deny Republican policies are more business-friendly. Whenever you talk about raising taxes on the over-$250K or even the over-$400K crowd, you are talking about small businessmen. In any case, the bottom line is that immigration issues are far more important to white conservatives than to Hispanics, or anyone else.
1
@Larry
Republican policies are not more business-friendly towards small businesses, only bigger ones.
7
@Larry
A lot of Hispanics run small businesses. I would guess a very small number of those make enough yearly income to make above 250k. That well into the top 1 percent of all Americans.
1
The author shows that the Latinx population cannot be understood as a collective subject that acts with one mind. That counts as praiseworthy among American political scientists, I guess.
What he misses about Latinx is what the political class misses about Trumpism, in general. It is about a broad tent of shared ideological assumptions.
That these assumptions are entirely detached from evidence is important to point out, but will not impress those who share them.
There is comfort in a reactionary world-view that allows one to vilify others (blacks, Muslims, feminists), especially if sharing it is the ticket to admission to the party where the rich and powerful mingle.
2
If there is no "Latino" vote, then there surely can't be an "Asian vote," or even a "Black" or "White" vote for the same reasons. These are simply artificial constructs used for political analysis, and may or may not be useful tools.
The same may be said for any attempt to broadly categorize society. Is there a fixed set of characteristics that define every "liberal" or "conservative"?
Economic distinctions like "working class," "middle class," and "upper class" can be muddled concepts. For example. the term "white working class" lumps together non-union textile mill workers and poor unemployed coal miners, but also well-paid union members with benefits like health insurance and pensions.
Can "white-collar workers" be middle class? Are police officers and firefighters "blue-collar" or "middle class"?
My point is that there are many ways to classify the population, all of which ignore the potentially substantial differences within each category, It's not so much a question of whether the categories are completely accurate and internally consistent as it is a question of whether using them produces useful results.
My main takeaway from this article is actually that regardless of how a voting bloc is defined, if either party ignores those people, or takes their votes for granted--like the Democrats in Michigan (2016) and Florida (2018)--they are making a serious mistake.
4
Hispanics are like any other ethnic group. Recent immigrants (not all Hispanics are immigrants or descended from immigrants; in the Southwest many have roots that extend back to the 17th Century) assimilate to the dominant culture, and don't cherish the sense of grievance that the NYT assumes and tries to encourage. Their culture has something to offer (Cervantes!) and so does Anglo culture (Shakespeare, limited and democratic government). So they have a broad range of political beliefs and party affiliations, not those Mr. Edsall presumes to assign them.
5
@Jonathan Katz: Actually, some of us have families that date to the 16th century, not 17th. Francisco Vasquez de Coronado traveled through what would become New Mexico in 1540-42. The first Spanish settlement on the Rio Grande was in 1598. I particularly like it when Trump supporters tell me I'm going to be deported. My family has been here a really long time, unlike theirs.
1
But, to me, the four key swing states are now Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. They went from Obama to Trump in 2016, then switched back to Democrats in 2018. The Democrats have a good chance of keeping these results, and if they do, Trump should lose. How many Hispanics are in these states? How did they vote in 2016, 2018?
Agree, Democrats should take advantage of Trump’s anti-Hispanic policies and rhetoric, and maybe this will turn Florida and Texas, which would be great. But the above 4 states are critical and possible.
2
@Pete Thurlow: Trump does not promote "anti-Hispanic" policies. He promotes anti illegal alien policies. Do you really not understand the difference? Parroting untrue sound bites might sound like a good idea, but it's probably one of the reasons that would turn Latinos away from the Democratic Party.
6
25 years in FL have taught me that Hispanics in FL (esp but not only Cubans) are extremely hostile to the left --viz the successful attack on Gillum as a communist-- and socially very conservative. The anti-leftism may not hold in CA and only partly in TX, where the immigrants are less a product of political conflict, but the social conservatism does.
The demographic determinism of the Dem party is naive: ideology not ethnicity will determine the future, not the "browning of America" or "majority minority" delusion.
13
@David
I agree. I remember reading a few years back an article by a conservative columnist (I think it was James Taranto) who was arguing that liberals' haste to invite more immigrants in hope that it might de-conservatize America might blow up in their face. The thing about a lot of Asians, Hispanics, and Muslims I've met is that they are very conservative (they just don't find the GOP very welcoming). If the GOP ever moves their base on from racism and embraces a bigger tent, the Democratic Party (as it exists now at least) is doomed. If I were the Democratic leadership, I would find a way to reach out to these folks without scaring them off with extreme cultural liberalism.
3
Is the expanded use of voter-purge technology hold any relevance to this story?
3
Maybe for the same reasons working class whites who need healthcare, affordable college for their kids, etc. somehow don't get that the gov. can/should help them on these matters. Could it be Murdoch fox propaganda is doing such a good job? My own mother desperately needs medicare and social security yet claims she would reject this "socialism" if her republican party offered demanded this. Huh?! She watches fox religiously and she follows their party line.
3
It would be helpful if Julian Castro's presidential candidacy gained some traction. As a big city mayor and former federal department head, he has probably more solid administrative experience than anyone else in the field. He has just released a comprehensive immigration proposal that deserves to be seriously discussed.
Castro is intelligent and thoughtful, but perhaps not flashy enough to draw attention in a crowded contest. That would be unfortunate. His voice needs to be heard. And getting Castro some major media time would draw in Latinos who tend to view themselves as outsiders in this conversation.
6
I would like to call attention to todays, NYT article on the Murdock's influence on our politics. Why isn't the Democratic Congress addressing the need for fair and equal representation on the part of big media platforms. All groups are susceptible to misinformation campaigns. Better public education is also crucial to combat the contemptible money influencing out elections. Fair and equal representation on dominate media platforms is needed now.
3
The role of propaganda is inescapable, and the more one’s understanding of events depends upon hearsay and talk radio and Fox news or Spencer media, the stronger is the influence of propaganda.
Until this blitz of alternative facts is effectively combatted, 45% of voters will be behind Trump and will spread disinformation that will persuade Latinos, just like everyone else.
6
Most of the comments here focus understandably on the title issue, why Democrats aren't winning 80% or 90% of the Hispanic vote. But Mr Edsall spends almost half his essay on an equally interesting point. I recall a decade ago that political scientists predicted that Hispanic demography would propel the group into the forefront of American policy by virtue of the numbers. But that only will happen if Hispanics vote in proportion to their growing numbers. If Hispanics added 17.6 million more eligible voters between 1986 and 2014 but only 3.9 million of them went to the polls, the American political system is deeply flawed.
So why aren't Hispanics voting in tandem with their growing numbers? Does it have something to do with a conviction that government doesn't respond to their needs? Are the issues that both parties emphasize irrelevant to their interests and priorities? Is it simply neglect on the part of political parties and government? These are the questions we ought to be asking, because if the US finally woke up to the previously ignored white no-college voter in 2016, the other shoe will drop when the ignored Hispanic voter finally wields its long unused electoral power.
8
Easy: They subscribe to the same selfish "I got mine, let's bar the gates" theory as the rest of the GOP.
4
@truth: Or maybe they feel the Democratic Party treats them as mindless meat puppets whose main duty is to assist the party in its rise to power.
7
It seems to make sense to think that Hispanics should vote 100% Democrat. But that ignores the way voters vote for the candidate with whom they identify.
I know a couple who are illegal immigrants. It would seem to make sense that they would be pro-Democrat. But a few weeks ago the husband gave me a long rant about how a country is not a country without secure borders and about how illegals need to be kept out. This from an illegal!
I also have a friend who is on public assistance. You would think my friend would favor the party that favors helping the less fortunate. But, no! He is a Trump supporter.
To me, this has to do with how both these people are better able to identify with Trump than with the Democrats, who come across as elites. This, even though my friend is a Harvard graduate.
Some things are deeper than financial self-interest or even security. They are about people's identity.
11
@Eric R.
So, "these people" would find it easier to "identify with" a Democratic candidate if he were, like Trump, crude, ignorant, infantile, narcissistic, mendacious and, as such, a non-"elite"? A candidate inflicted with such a personality disorder would be their kind of guy, more in keeping with their "identity?" What am I to think of such people?
1
I find it odd that such a wonky, analytical piece insists on lumping together people into the falsely homogenous category of "Latinos" or "the Hispanic vote," even as it parses data about Cuban Americans, younger vs. older voters, etc. The reason it's hard to predict how "Hispanic" people will vote is the huge diversity within the group.
6
The term "Hispanic" encompasses a lot of different groups. People whose recent ancestors were Puerto Rican or Cuban don't necessarily think the same politically as those whose families were Mexican or Guatemalan. Also, if your family's been in the country 5-6 generations, simply having a Spanish surname is not going to set you apart from what most people would consider a "generic" American. I have an Italian surname, but I grew up in military bases around the country and overseas. Eighty years ago my family members who spoke with an accent might have been considered not quite American by your average WASP. But I've always been treated as just another regular American. I imagine it's the same for many Hispanics in similar circumstances. I guess the difference is that immigration from Italy dried up to a relative trickle decades ago, so there is a much higher percentage of Italian Americans who fit my description than there are Hispanic Americans, even though I'm sure there are many.
5
I hope they realize that the Pope referred to Trump's separation policies as inhumane and morally reprehensible.
The Pope.
If they are aware of this and a Catholic, then they will be purposely disrespectful of the Pope, they'll vote for Trump.
Otherwise, they would not vote for a man the whose policies the pope has condemned.
Yet another reason our country needs an INFORMED electorate.
3
Throughout Latin America, there is a very deep dichotomy between light-skinned people of European descent and dark-skinned people with more Native American heritage (surprise!). The former control politics, business and the media - for instance, dark-skinned people have nearly no influential roles on Univision, Telemundo, etc. There are some exceptions for musicians and sports stars, but that is it. I suspect that most of those who identify with the light-skinned ruling class are attracted to the exclusionary Trumpist stance while most of the darker-skinned people identify more with the Democrats' more inclusionary stance.
9
Most Hispanics are Catholic. They can't go against the social conservatism of their religion, but they are economically progressive and often personally open minded. So they split the difference and just don't vote. One issue alone (abortion) could account for much of it. Democratic candidates in Hispanic filled districts should consider making a pact not to vote for or against anything related to abortion.
6
@Robert David South...some Hispanics are Catholic, a growing number are Evangelicals. Many have joined Episcopalian congregations. Quite a number of Hispanics are Jewish, Sephardic Jews especially. More important that religious affiliation is how observant people are. Many Hispanics, most of the people I know, are really not all that religious. The concept of devoted Hispanic Catholics following the Pope's every word is largely an American-made myth.
3
@Robert David South
Right on target. I am a liberal Democrat but it seems clear to me, despite my own views, that teh Democrats' position on abortion (and add gay rights as well) does not sell very well among Hispanics. As R D South says, their solution is to decline to vote
1
The issue is abortion, plain and simple. Many strong Catholic and evangelical Hispanics will never vote Democratic. I don't think Democrats will get more than 60 percent in the future. If Republicans could stop scapegoating Hispanics, many of them would become Republicans immediately.
9
@Brian Prioleau: Republicans scapegoat illegal aliens, sure, but how exactly is that scapegoating all Hispanics?
4
The idea that Latinos are either (a) monolithic or (b) going to vote solidly Democratic in perpetuity is absolutely laughable. It's a perspective that could not possibly be held by anyone who has regular contact with a cross-section of this population. For one thing, the group known broadly as "Latino" includes people of many nationalities, many of which share very little with eachother, least of all fondness and solidarity. Yes, the Latino center on a college campus may have a number of nationalities working together with common goals but this is not reality. Latino also now includes multiple waves of immigration and their descendants. Those who have been here longer may feel the (real or perceived) threats that citizens have always felt from newer waves of immigration. The Democratic party has long believed that this community is a sleeping giant, waiting to support their candidates en masse. This hasn't quite happened and there's a good chance it never will. And this is a good thing. When a political party can count on a group's support, that's when it stops serving that group.
16
Going through the comments is eye opening for a few reasons.
First, illegal immigration seems to have become a hot-button, litmus-test issue for voters. Curbing illegal immigration is undoubtedly important. However, people seem to be willing to vote Republican simply because of the party's apparently tough stance on illegal immigration, no matter how disastrous other Republican policies might be. Far more consequential issues such as healthcare, education, inequality, climate, etc. get effectively ignored.
Second, the Democratic party seems to have earned this reputation of a party that condones illegal immigration at best, and is in favor of it and open borders at worst, when in reality this is a complete and outright lie. One would like to think that the Republicans have been very successful in painting the Democrats thus (and they have), but it must also be acknowledged that Democrats are also very effective at shooting themselves in the foot when it comes to immigration.
Finally, Democrats keep getting chastised for focusing on identity politics instead of "bread and butter issues", when in actuality, the reverse is true. In 2016, both Hillary and Bernie had detailed proposals on such issues, but people were apparently more interested in the reality TV contest going on rather than making a little bit of effort to research the candidates' actual positions.
9
@Santa
Over and over again presidential candidates who are experienced policy wonks lose national elections to less experienced ones who are able to communicate in efficient sound bites. We just need to accept that most of the population has a limited attention span and nominate people who can do both. "Hope and change" elected a 2 year national politician over one with 26 years in Washington. "Build the wall" elected a non-politician over a former senator and secretary of state.
I think dems are trying to placate the base who is very angry at Trump's immigration policies when they equivocate on illegal immigration. Sadly that's not going to win us any votes nationally, we need dems to clearly state that they are against both illegal immigration and inhumane treatment of migrants, and outline a clear plan for evidence based measures to attack the border crisis.
12
The few working-class Hispanics I know are the most vociferous and enthusiastic Trump supporters I’ve met...There’s an Hispanic-owned auto parts store in JC where, since the GOP primaries, every customer is greeted with “Do you love Trump?” then all workers chant “Build the Wall!”
True
15
"The future success of the Democratic Party depends on..."
The first half of the first sentence in this opinion sadly displays what is wrong with politics. The "success of the [insert political party]" should not be what we care about, it should be the success of the country.
11
@J
How's that working out for Trump's base?
To answer Edsall's question, the vast majority of Hispanic people worldwide are Catholic so believe most of the antiabortion rhetoric and other conservative dogma spouted in Catholic churches regularly now. This even though Trump and the GOP openly hate Hispanics and will continue to until they are voted out of office in Washington hopefully thanks to a huge Democratic vote by this group of people.
7
After all the racial spews from Trump's mouth, do not think we are going to sit silently on the sidelines. There are many of us who vote and many who have been recruiting others to register to vote.
4
One word: abortion. Many Hispanic Americans are either devout Catholics or evangelical Christians.
9
Why?
Because latinos like everyone else see the absolute insanity of supporting illegal immigration.
Let this sink in: Trump's support among latinos is now at 50%. In 2016, Trump won a bigger share of the Latino vote than Romney did.
Face it: across all demographics and all income groups except the oligarchs, the American public has had it with our elites' support for this disastrous and utterly incomprehensible policy of supporting the entry into this country of tens of millions of illiterate peasants who have utterly no right to be here.
Persist in supporting this debacle, and you will hand the election to Trump - AGAIN.
Your choice, Dems.
22
@T-Bone
Latino support for Trump is nowhere near 50%.
(You keep posting this, but it is patently false.)
Trump tells you that's so, but you might want to check his figures.
Just a suggestion.
8
@T-Bone
"Illiterate peasants...." Same thing was said about the Irish until the mid 20th Century: "No Irish Need Apply".
Latinos are opening businesses, working hard, and revitalizing communities across the U.S.
1
Given the extreme corruption of the Republicans, that would be reason alone to vote Democrat, setting aside tribalism/anti-Caucasian sentiments.
3
@Eugene Debs
And then there are the corrupt Clintons who millions of Dems had no issues voting for.
2
And here is why the Democrats are fighting for open borders, to inundate the country with Latinos so they can gain a permanent majority. Nothing to do with feeling bad for people and wanted to help them and the rest of their drivel.
I hope that they miscalculate in the permanent support part, too. Latinos don't want to be thought off as a permanent underclass waiting for the Dems handouts. They work hard to gain upward mobility. Socialism won't sound too appealing to them, then.
8
@Pat
Wages haven't kept up with inflation since 1979, but all the GOP votes for is tax cuts for the 1%.
4
I hate to say it but Dems have a losing position on immigration. There'll always be gangs or war in some country or the other, for eternity. Dems' answer is to move them to America and with it come a whole host of issues/questions which Dems frankly don't seem to bother about.
14
@Merlin
The Trump administration's response has been to cut $700 million in aid to Central America.
Think that's going to stop illegal migration?
4
@J Anders: How exactly are Central American governments spending that foreign aid? Do you know?
2
Does the issue of abortion a possible explanation?
6
News Flash! Not all Latinos support "asylum seekers" or "undocumented immigrant workers" .. Not all Latinos favor DACA or unfettered, chain immigration.
In fact many Latinos are just like other Americans.. They too want to see people follow the law and not crash the border in order to take advantage of the asylum loophole.
17
@Aaron
Ironic that Trump used chain migration to get Melania's parents into America.
Let's hope Hispanics listen more closely now to the vile slanders that Trump is hurling at Puerto Rico and those not from that impoverished island start to realize that there is NO HOME FOR HISPANICS within the Republican Party. In fact, unless you're a WASP or WASE (E for Evangelical), participating in the politics of the Republican Party is a one-way relationship where you might delude yourself into thinking you're welcome but in fact there is nothing but loathing for you. Republicans, after all, only have eyes for their own ilk.
2
Well - if you'd ask Trump he would think... New Mexico, California and Nevada are three Mexican countries.
5
The answer to the headline is complex. Hispanics (who should have been referred to as "Latinos/Latinas") are not a monolithic group of lemmings. Maybe some are not enchanted by the promises of wealthy Democratic candidates who get their money from speeches on Wall Street. Maybe others don't identify with lengthy position statements on wealth distribution, Planned Parenthood or Palestinian rights. Perhaps others dislike being thought of as 'deplorables' because they voted Republican in the last election due to their frustration with the status quo. Interestingly, the article was not written by a Latino.
8
@MA Harry
65% of Hispanics apparently didn't like Trump's characterizations of them in the last election.
4
Feel free to yell at me, but Trump's bully-boy personality may appeal to machismo voters just like he appeals to white misogynists and nationalists.
11
It would help if liberal elites like David Axelrod would stop "complimenting" immigrants (read: Latinos) by saying how hard they work on "picking produce, picking up your trash, cleaning your offices..." etc.
I cringe when liberals start talking this way. Who do they think they are convincing? The Latinos that are being condescended to ("you are such hard workers! Awww, good for you!"), or the white working class that already feels like they are being replaced by a wave of cheap labor from central and south America.
14
@J cDoes David Axelrod do this?
3
@mary bardmess
Yes. Constantly. It’s embarrassing.
1
Latino culture is very much about machismo. Men are the boss. Latinos tend to be Roman Catholic. Equality for women. Abortion rights. These are not important issues for Latinos. Maybe it is not surprising that so many Latinos vote Republican.
15
Since I happen to be hispanic, could someone tell how I should vote in the next election so that I maintain the monolith?
11
Sure: Democratic.
6
@Fernando here is my suggestion: do not vote for Trump
I think that a secret in the low participation of many voters in elections and difficult to predict loyalties comes from the fact that there is a two-party system where we have to accept only complete political packages from either side. Those whose votes are based on the racial allegiance or attachment to only one issue (e.g. abortion) would vote predictable. However people like me (disclosure – very white), and it may be true with many Hispanic voters, who look at the merit of programs by the line items, do not see the political representation in either party. For example, I would support GOP immigration reforms and I am anti abortion. However, I cannot support the fact that GOP lost all family values and became such a vocal promoter of the porn presidency and the racist, mentally unstable president who is a national threat. On the other side, I would not support Democrats in so called slavery reparations but I see their good ideas on the health care ACA support (not single payer extreme), environment, and the tax reforms to remove extreme inequalities. But in fact, each party has such extreme positions in the areas of my concern that none represents me and it can be true for others including many Hispanics.
5
@Adam
Single payer is not "extreme". It's the main reason that Canadians now outlive Americans by an average of 3 years.
5
@J Anders People outlive Americans in many countries, with or without single payer. Single payer is the exception in other countries, not the rule.
2
Sill, it’s three years in
...Canada
Unfortunately, Dems make it easy to misrepresent their positions on immigration, which too often causes us to lose elections, to the detriment of everything else we want to achieve.
I'm curious to know (but find nothing on line) what % of Dems actually support sanctuary cities. I suspect it's a small fraction and the tail is wagging the dog. The argument in favor - that police need it to work effectively in those communities - sounds bogus even to me, a liberal. What other govt policy overtly supports illegal conduct? Yet just a few cities adopting this policy, which is probably disfavored even by many Dems and immigrants in those cities, allows the right to paint the entire party as "pro open borders".
Enforcing immigration law and defending our legal Hispanic neighbors are not contrary positions.
15
@Jomo I agree with you, that the Democrats don't have a decipherable policy. My own opinion is that I would support policies more like Canada's.
On the other hand, while Hispanic voters may have trouble--like the rest of us--figuring out what Democrats support, they should have no trouble figuring out that Trump is a racist cad who never passes up an opportunity to slander and defame Hispanics. Is it logical that those voters would stand by and let Trump get elected, because they're confused by Democrats?
1
Identity politics works only at the margin which is why the Democrats focus on this will be a losing proposition. On the whole, Latino's like most other populations, vary in their political beliefs and outlook. My biggest electoral shocks of the past few years have been (1) More Muslims voted for Trump in 2016 than voted for Romney in 2012. (2) 53% of white women voted for Trump in 2016 and (3) Substantial minorities (including family members) voted for Brexit in 2016. Who would have thought?
And as several commentators have pointed, those of us who spent the time and effort and money to legally immigrate to the US do not look so kindly on those who think they are entitled to be here by overstaying visas and jumping over fences. Democrats need to come up with a sensible immigration policy or they will continue to lose these eligible voters (the legal ones).
16
The largest growth in Latino religious orientation in the U.S. and Latin America is evangelical, not Catholic. This group is socially conservative and economically entrepreneurial, which may help explain the drag on turnout for Democrats.
16
For a more penetrating analysis of the forces involved, check Steve Cortes' article at RealClearPolitics.
"As the Democratic Party lurches left on social issues, the largely Catholic and Evangelical Hispanic community of America finds itself orphaned by the Democratic Party. Increasingly, Democrat lawmakers and leaders support abortion up until the very day of birth (and even beyond), so Hispanics naturally gravitate to pro-life Trump. A 2018 Pew poll, for instance, found that 61% of whites believe abortion should be legal in most/all circumstances, but only 44% of Hispanics concur. In a separate survey, Pew also discovered that among Democrats, Hispanics are almost twice as likely to identify as “conservative” as non-Hispanics. Given these realities, the increasingly extremist Democratic Party practically invites electoral doom in 2020."
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/04/02/hispanics_rally_to_trump_boosting_his_2020_chances_139933.html
7
@HMI
An opinion piece written by this guy:
Steve Cortes
Servied in 2016 as a primary TV surrogate for the Trump presidential campaign and was named to Trump's Hispanic Advisory Council.
3
@HMI
You might want to learn more about Cortes.
He is on a council that is a Trump outreach to Hispanics.
He has long been a major Trump supporter.
Do not be surprised when he writes such deceptive propaganda saying that Latinos love Trump.
Some do, undoubtedly, but most don't.
And many simply do not vote at all.
The Dems take many groups for granted. If they want to win elections they must stop this elitist attitude. They must also try to really appeal to parts of the country ( ex. Midwest, flyover country) that they write off.
Pete Buttigieg is addressing this.
Maybe it's why so many people are attracted to his candidacy.
3
As a Latino who has lived in America for 19 years, let me tell you why Thomas. Latinos like my family, who emigrated from Colombia in 2000 did it LEGALLY! We had to overcome lots of challenges, including but not limited to: Long wait times, very expensive paperwork and immigration lawyers, uncertainty and many other challenges. Eventually, we became part of the American fabric but it was EARNED, not given. the Democratic Party, especially the new 'left wing' seems to want to laugh at our LEGAL efforts, and just give amnesty and free passage to current 'non law abiding' immigrants. Its a slap in the face!
15
@Jaime Rodriguez Yes, your description of the immigration process is absolutely correct. The key, however, is that to qualify as your family did, you need to possess at least 2 critical items: a university degree and money. The REAL issue is that the Immigration process needs to be overhauled, where temporary visas for key, seasonal workers (e.g. agriculture and construction) may be granted and monitored. We have the technology. What we need is the political consensus in Congress to modify and update our Immigration Laws.
4
@Jaime Rodriguez My question to legal immigrants who resent illegal immigrants is, if illegal immigration is so easy, why didn’t you just do that instead?
The obvious reason is that you have an education and a decent amount of money, and living in the US without documents is much worse than coming legally. Also, if you think that Trump really cares about your immigration status more than he cares about the color of your skin, I have very bad news for you. Take it from a Jew — it’s a mistake to believe that when things go bad, you’ll be considered “one of the good ones.”
Make election day a holiday or make voting easier for those who work for hourly wages and/or multiple jobs to support their families. Voter participation by all minorities would rise.
6
@DC
Which is precisely why the GOP opposes doing so.
1
Seems like about one-third of almost any demographic could ultimately be relied on to vote Republican -- the Venn diagram for the ideal Republican demographic would be: ignorance, greed, chauvinism. The percentage is higher or lower, depending on the group.
Seems like if the Democrats campaign forcefully around education, generosity, and tolerance, they'd be able to cement a majoritarian hold on the electorate.
Part of that approach requires prying money out of the "Pentagon lockbox" that the GOP keeps trying to expand, and putting it to actual domestic social spending, versus funneling the money into foreign wars and claiming austerity for any non-war spending.
Which means the Democrats need to courageously embrace progressive values, if they want to build that majoritarian future. What it reveals for the GOP is that there'll never be enough ignorant, greedy, and bigoted people for them to safely rule as a majority party, without seriously lying about what they're actually about, and hoping enough voters ignorantly cast a ballot for them. It's also why they're attacking elections so aggressively, and gerrymandering so heavily.
2
Why does Mr Edsall not think that Hispanics are as vulnerable to greed, fear hate and propaganda as everyone else in the world?
The Republicans have a dedicated propaganda machine. The Democrats do not. That is always going to skew the numbers of any demographic.
3
Perhaps a few Hispanics realize that there are a some similarities between the policies proposed by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren to those pursued by Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez. Fidel and Hugo made Cuba and Venezuela the free everything nirvana that Bernie and Liz are promising us. What could go wrong, Huh?
7
@Rahul
Venezuela is not a socialist country. It is a dictatorship.
Doesn't this tell us something about the racial makeup of the votes in USA? Is that normal, desirable, acceptable?
I mean, every one knows this but let me repeat - blacks 100% democrats, Hispanics massively democrats, whites with money largely democrats, whites with no so much money all republicans.
So what are the dems to do to woo the rest of Hispanics - to fight for 'open border', correct. They are doing that, in the eyes of a common voter, and that is why Trump will win in 2020, one of the reasons.
3
Trump did it for Republicans - making it OK to be nasty and calculating. Now it's the Democrats' turn. Historically, Democrats offered a position that the other guy is a complete ogre, how could you even consider voting for him, then offering the voter a stale box of donuts as the reward (predictably going with Wall Street and other criminals who have no sympathy for the traditional progressive politics of the left). The idea that a poor, dark skinned voter should vote for the Democrat reflects a political bewilderment worse than now offering a wet and moldy box of donuts. AOC should be applauded for asking the question - what kind of donut do you really want to eat?
1
1. There's no Hispanic or Latino bloc vote as that populace covers dozens of countries over two continents. There is cultural & political differences within that diaspora.
2. Religion is still a big part of Latino/Hispanic culture. There is economic liberalism but social conservatism. Abortion & gay marriage are still generally viewed negatively.
3. Latinos & Hispanics generally don't embrace the Left's victim narrative. They usually believe in independence, self determination and have self sustaining communities.
10
sometimes people ask me if I consider myself "White" I tell them that since my ancestry is 100% European, I do not think I have a choice. Am I Black? -no, Am I Asian? -no, Native American? -no.
Many Hispanics fall into one or more of those categories but some do not. Hispanics come from all backgrounds but some of us think of ourselves as White because what else could we be?
3
Latinos are generally high functioning. They believe in family and know that ,despite sad but occasional wrongdoing, the police benefit the inner-city WAY more than they harm it. They think America is wonderful and a land of opportunity. They also love school choice.
Democrats believe in hand outs, teachers unions, anti-christianism, they blame police, put down America and despise successful people and the companies that employ us all and pay for everything.
Maybe these are reasons Trump is President.
9
@Frued
Careful there. You're running together lots of things that lots of different left-of-center people say, as if all people on the left say all of them. It's about as true as saying Jerry Falwell Jr. is a Log Cabin Republican because they are both "on the right."
Next article: Why do Republicans Get any Votes? The GOP lies and pushes cultural buttons with bumper sticker slogans on issues it is abundantly clear they could care less about, except to make things worse and easier to exploit, and, of course, blame on 'liberals'.
There are jaded, bigoted, apathetic and uninformed voters of all ethnic groups. Democrats get elected when Republicans incompetence, greed, economy crashing and war profiteering policies hit voter's wallets, and the empty slogans and culture war are temporarily moved to the electoral back burner.
3
The question asked was why. It is clear that many Hispanic voters are focused on economic power and ignore the racist things being said about them by the GOP. I saw a Hispanic man a few months ago praise Trump and his handling of the Mexican border by repeating the lie that there are Muslim terrorists hiding in the asylum seekers.
In my interactions, what I see, is a brown minority politics that's me first and where my money comes from goes in front of the truth. It is astounding. I am a Muslim, but clearly, if we look at Trump, he hates the idea of brown people coming to America more than Muslims. Yet many Hispanic people see politics as a game only for them to use so they can get fa few more dollars.
I am black and maybe we are stupid, but for me, this shows a lack of development in the Hispanic American vote. It boils down to a question of taking money to self hate and then being able to use that money to buy respect. As a black man, I say, if I have to buy your respect, I don't want it.
2
perhaps a major issue is that "Hispanic" is not a racial designation so much as a linguistic identity. a fair percentage of the "Hispanic" population in this country view themselves as white (as they do inn societies across Latin America) and align themselves closely to politicians who might espouse racialized paranoia and view blacks, Afro-Latinos, Muslims, South Asians, Arabs, Native Americans, and indigenous Mexicans and Central Americans as enemies...
1
Why should the Hispanic vote be assumed to lean Democratic ? Many Hispanics are some of the most conservative individuals you will meet.
8
Floridian Cubans are a breed apart. They despise Communism. Hence their devotion to the GOP. Perhaps this attitude may change among the younger generation.
Among some Latino populations, language issues and the sheer grind of eking out a living discourage active participation in the electoral process.
2
The Democrat Party's infatuation with identity politics is popular with white liberals, who are much stricter ideological crusaders for 'minority rights' than the minority voters themselves. See the astonishing fact that while - mostly white - liberal activists angrily demanded the resignation of the Virginia governor over a nothingburger, the group that was supposedly insulted by his ancient transgression wants him to stay.
I'd bet that if the Democrats could get rid of their deluded 'Social Justice' activist fringe, while doubling down on their progressive economic policies, their share of Hispanic voters would go up. That of whites, too.
6
Mr. Edsall's column fails to mention one crucial factor quite obvious to those of us who live in predominantly Hispanic communities: the set of conservative family values that still predominate.These values emphasize the centrality of religion, of the family and multi-generational loyalty to that family, respect for tradition, and behaving in a socially acceptable manner. A community that is so socially conservative but politically liberal is open to solicitations from both sides of the political spectrum.
11
Spot on-exactly-conservative socially. Having lived in SoCal & Southern AZ easy to see first hand. Amazing though that Easterners don't know this. Meanwhile, lots of older Dems, like me are becoming very concerned about the left tilt of the party since we gay folks now may finally be "freed" from being owned by those elders who transformed the party in 1968 Chicago. Wow, seems like the leadership is truly stepping out from behind the hidden veil. Not good. Yes, well soon we may be able to consider other political parties, but of course the other party must change their platform, as a starting point. This bi-partisan political disruption may certainly be interesting & challenging.
1
Perhaps hispanics aren't flexing their political muscle because there aren't enough candidates who represent them politically and culturally--in other words, more hispanic candidates. But I suspect they will wake up to this reality at some point, and the party that truly understands this reality will thrive.
4
As others have mentioned, the Hispanics are not a homogeneous ethnic group.
The main Republican force have been the Cuban Americans. They are evolving because of Cuba's changes. Also, they are influenced in Florida by Puerto Ricans suffering from the Hurricane Maria debacle. Watch Marco Rubio as a barometer on all that.
Mexicans evolve as the native borns grow into voting rights. The previous generation was desultory about voting if they had citizenship. However, that is changing also. The Networks Univision and Telemundo have a great hold over them. Those broadcasters show stories of Hispanics being demeaned and deprived of rights every evening, e.g., children in cages; last night it was a clerk at a Shell station demanding to see identification after a young woman spoke Spanish.
A Democratic contender should begin broadcasting with the Spanish speaking networks right now. The Democratic Party should come up with strategy for using the networks. Votes are there for the picking.
Of course, Trump using descriptions such as "rapists" and other invective can be leveraged.
3
The fact is people cannot be relied upon to vote in their own best interests, and persist in voting for the party that treats them with disdain and acts against them on policy after policy. We just have to look at white working class voters to see that phenomenon most clearly. And Hispanics are not a monolithic bloc. Many are deeply conservative culturally and this provides the GOP with an opening.
3
@NJB
"The fact is people cannot be relied upon to vote in their own best interests..."
WOW. Stalin or Mao couldn't have said it better.
Do you realize how condescending this sounds to the people you claim to care about? This deep distrust of the voting public is the reason why Far Right populists are winning while the Left continues to preach to the public what is good for them. You have to learn to trust the people in a democracy even if they come up with what you consider to be the wrong answer.
A "wrong" answer that is democratic is preferable to benevolent autocracy because being unchallenged the autocracy will quickly descend into repression, torture and gulags. Have you learned nothing from East Europe and USSR's experience?
5
@NJB
I would disagree with your assumption that Hispanics are not voting in their best interest. According to Pew Research, a low percentage of immigrants from Mexico and Central America have college degrees (6.2% and 9.2% respectively in 2016). The vast majority have a high school degree or less (81.2% and 74.6%).
While these immigrants may not have a formal education, they are not stupid. If there is a never-ending stream of unskilled immigrants with low levels of immigration, the competition for manual labor jobs increases, keeping wages low for that kind of work. If you're one of these immigrants, once you're in the U.S., of course you would vote to keep your competitors out. It's why you left your country in the first place: few jobs, low pay, lots of unemployed competition.
Being insulted by the president, on the other hand, is just an insult.
Most people can live with insults, whereas it is very difficult to live with wages that are kept low by the competition from an abundance of low skilled workers with little or no formal education.
Additionally, many of these same immigrants from south of our border are generally much more conservative on account of their religions. While Trump obviously does not appeal in that sphere, the GOP sure does.
7
I believe the majority of Hispanics are Catholic. Therefore maybe the Democratic support for same sex marriage, pro-choice on abortion, etc isn't going over big in Hispanic families. With regard to values Hispanics probably have more in common with Republicans than Democrats.. The question therefore should really be why don't the Republicans get a bigger share of the Hispanic vote.
8
If Hispanics do not vote, they have no right to complain, most especially if they do not vote for Trump's opponent.
Ditto for any ethnic, religious, or social group that lacks Trump approbation.
All politics comes down to whose ox is being gored...
2
Both Stacey Abrams in Georgia and Andrew Gillum in Florida made a lot of noise about "getting out the minority vote". The article didn't say anything about Ms Abrams, but since Mr Gillum apparently didn't much effort into trying to win the Hispanic vote, does that mean he (and by extension, the Democrats) thinks "the minority vote" only means black Americans? If so, we're setting ourselves up for another loss in 2020.
5
Hispanics that vote are legal citizens. To become legal citizens, they had to undergo (as I did) a legal, long process. The immigrants who chose to leave their corrupted countries of origin, did so because they want to live in a country where laws matter, including immigration laws. Therefore, the Hispanic people who can vote (and those are the ones that the Democratic party should mostly worry about) do not necessarily want illegal immigration. Expecting 'solidarity' from the legal Hispanic citizens with the illegal Hispanic immigrants is a mistake the Democratic party keeps making.
14
I live in Texas, and I'm always puzzled by the lack of political interest shown by the Hispanic community.
I am not saying that there are not those few individuals who try and rally their fellow Hispanics, but by and large, the Hispanic community that I personally have spoken to do not bother.
Those who do engage with me over politics seem to like the current administration and are okay with what is going on....call me bewildered at best.
I get the feeling they only trust the Catholic Church, and simply defer to their priest on what to do and what to believe....I must add...I live in San Antonio, so I don't know what is occurring in other municipalities in Texas...
5
Most Hispanic immigrants are only too familiar with the terrible outcomes of over-population: environmental degredation; poverty; gang violence; lack of education and work opportunities; political instability. They do not want to destroy the United States, only to provide for as many children as they can produce.
1
You neglect two obvious issues that are important factors. From my experience and observation, Hispanics generally embrace two things that both Trump and modern Democrats lack: faith and common sense. Ironically, these factors are precisely why many (mostly rural) whites will follow Trump anywhere. And, these factors are a big reason we’re in such a divisive environment, where members of each “party” (made up) accuse members of the other of having too much of one and not enough of the other.
1
What I kept looking for in this article was the outsize effect devout Catholicism has on Hispanic peoples' voting patterns. Over the years I have been in many hundreds of Hispanic homes and seen first-hand the outsize influence religion has on their lives, compared to the general populace. This is not just when they are low income. It holds true as they move up the income ladder too.
Anything that may go against their religion's teachings is to be viewed with extreme suspicion. This particularly includes abortion, gay marriage and anything including the letters LGBT, etc. What this results in is, just like overly religious white folk, they vote against their collective interest to spite what they see as the subversive disbelievers in their midst.
6
@Anthony Taylor Really? To oppose abortion because you believe that all human life is given by God and so is inviolable is equivalent to having "spite" for "disbelievers"? And do you really believe that you know better than Hispanic people what their interests are?
5
Can't wait for Edsall to explore the future of the Asian-American vote. Wonder if he and his liberal academic pen-pals ever think about when that "community" will respond to the fact that the political left pushes the interests of other Democratic constituencies at their expense. The controversies over NYCs elite-high school admissions test and the litigation publicity over Harvard's admissions system are tells. Sooner or later people tire of being told they are brilliant but lack personality.
6
Maybe the Democratic Party should prepare, test and then run anti Trump ads on Spanish language media sooner rather than later. Don't worry about who the Dem candidates will be - just start anti Trump ads.
After all, that is what Fox does (except pro Trump) 24/7 on 'white' TV.
4
Because there is not such a thing as the "Hispanic vote" or a thing such as the "Latino bloc." We are all different, come from various political experiences and are of diverse political persuasions. Cubans living in New York are very different from Cubans living in Florida. Colombians living in Miami are most likely to vote Republican. In summary, we are not all "Mexicans." And speaking of real Mexicans, they are also probably very different among themselves depending on whether they are first, second, third or fourth generation.
And this is the very first thing that politicians have to learn if they want o get the vote of these very diverse peoples.
10
Although Latinos are individuals (not monolithic), their continued voting support of the Republican Party is not in their own best interests. Very similar to the continued support of the Republican Party by poor whites...its not in their own best interests.
So, the question is "What will it take to convince these populations that voting Republican is not in their own best interests? The actions Trump and the Republican party are taking with regard to healthcare, if successful, will deny those populations the healthcare coverage they now have under the Affordable Care Act.
I think this will get their attention to the point of causing them to act. I believe that is why Trump (and the Republicans) will not provide any details on their healthcare plan until after the 2020 election. BTW, the reality is that Trump & the Republicans do not have a healthcare plan...its all bluff.
2
The Democrats don't operate on trickle-down MAGA magic. They don't have a mythological formula where all ships will ascend to heaven if we just, whatever... Perhaps it simply isn't marketable or sexy to spend time dealing with facts and reality. Some of what the Democrats attempt to deal with is not very pretty like keeping tens of thousands from being murdered each year by guns or changing our course so that the climate doesn't make the planet inhospitable or protecting us from a relative handful of individuals who would like to have at our Social Security. Whatever the case may be, the Democrats better think of something to make candidates compelling because at the moment the country, and to some extent the world, is being held hostage by a greed machine that imperils all of us.
4
Latin Americans are comprised of people with European, African, and Native American ancestors. Some are wealthy having benefited from capitalistic structures of exploitation; others are impoverished having suffered under those systems of oppression. Some came legally with visas, others came as desperate refugees, yet others came illegally simply seeking a better life. Some came fleeing right-wing dictators, others left-wing dictators. Many are Christians with conservative social values whose churches urge them to "vote their values." Many "white" Latins subscribe to the same racial beliefs that make them feel superior to darker skinned folk.
In short -- why do they support the GOP/Trump? For the same reasons his other supporters do. It would do the left a world of good to understand that the "immigration issue" is not definitive for Hispanics.
6
I think the splits for the Arab American population is similar to that of the Latin American i.e. roughly 2D/1R.
Both groups have found a relatively high rate of success in America..if not first generation, then 3rd/4th. Prosperity tends to move people toward the GOP, which is the party of the status quo. People who have made it, want to keep it and remain in their social class as they look to move up. Not exactly the drawbridge syndrome, but human nature.
My observation is that immigrants from autocratic nations tend to respect autocratic hierarchy, especially as they find economic success. The male oriented nature of their home countries tends to make them feel, perhaps, more comfortable around male dominance and the DEMS are much more attractive to females than males, at least in the traditional male role.
Most people can spot a phony, though, if not immediately then after a while of being lied to. Nobody likes to be shown to played for a sucker, and slowly this is what Trump's soft independent vote has found out. His base is slowly waking up too...as evidenced by the support for the ACCa.
21
@GP Much more complex then that. 1st Gen. is less likely to care about racial issues, while 2nd Gen + is more likely (1st Gen Chinese Americans are 50% support Trump while 2nd Gen its more <10%).
1
I’ve read that one major challenge is that the Democratic Party relies heavily on Hispanic-oriented activism groups, which lean much further left than most Hispanics do, particularly on immigration. As a political activist, my personal experience bears out this assessment.
For all the people indignantly declaring that Hispanics vote as individuals, nobody is questioning that. Black people also vote as individuals, and they vote >90% Democratic. Voting as a bloc makes a group more powerful, and means politicians will listen harder to your concerns. It is a good thing, not a bad thing.
I will say also that Trump is a macho guy, and I can see why that appeals to men from a culture steeped in machismo, particularly for men who see themselves as self-made. Trump is anything but self-made, but it’s part of his myth.
Finally, never underestimate people’s ability to believe that they are the “good ones.” Many Hispanics and immigrants I’ve spoken to don’t feel that Trump is talking about them. They think he really does make a distinction between legal and illegal immigration. Unfortunately, I don’t think they are correct. I think hostility towards illegal immigrants is an easy cover for animonsity towards non-whites generally, and Trump’s policies bear that out. He is anti-immigration, period. If all the illegal immigrants were deported tomorrow, he and his base would immediately turn on people here legally.
3
@Mercury S
It would be good if you could spell out exactly which policies of Trump's show animonsity towards non-whites generally and exactly which demonstrate hostility toward legal immigration. Me, I don't see it.
@HMI I should have also mentioned ending TPS for people who in some cases have been here for twenty years. If you live and work somewhere for twenty years, you are contributing to the fabric of your community. For people here under TPS, their legal status here is everything. The “cost” to the rest of us is nothing: people with TPS constitute <0.1% of the US population. Kicking people out of the country after twenty years can’t be justified by practical concerns. It is simply cruel.
@HMI: The main driving force behind the Trump phenomenon is racial animus. An example apropos to this discussion is Trump's stated desire to end family-based immigration channels (he calls it 'chain migration'). Why else would he oppose it than he (and legions of deranged MAGAers) feel that 'their' country is being overrun by brown people? He even asked once why we couldn't get more people to immigrate from Norway. What do you think differentiates Norway from Guatemala?
Maybe this was addressed in the article and I missed it, but many Hispanic voters are devout Catholics and therefore may be pro-life. It's one thing to get a politician to change your mind on taxes or health care. It's another to get them to change your religious beliefs.
6
Many Hispanics are religious, mostly Roman Catholic. Dems are far more hostile to Catholicism than Reps. Most Roman Catholics have deep moral reservations about abortion and believe that life is given by God. Dems not only celebrate abortion (with pink lights), but they now tolerate a form of infanticide.
Many Hispanic immigrants go through the hard process and enter legally, and they favor strong border control. They are not overjoyed to see unlawful immigrants simply surge across the border. Immigrants now in the US also have to compete for employment with large and increasing numbers of unlawful immigrants. The criminal and gang elements from central America who enter illegally reorganize in immigrant communities, not in liberal white communities.
Hispanics are more family centered and in general more conservative than most Americans. Despite some unlawful entry, they believe in lawfulness, and many go into law enforcement. Many come from lawless countries. That's one reason they are here. They support lawfulness. Dems don't seem to grasp this.
I believe that Mr. Edsall interprets Trump's utterances differently from many people--understandably, I think, but still differently. To point out embedded criminality or other dangers in mass migration is not to say that all Hispanics are criminal or dangerous. His comment on a particular judge was reprehensible, but it was understood to be essentially aimed at a particular person in a particular case.
Watch the polls.
6
To answer a “why” question you have to more diligently read between the numbers. The Hispanic, Catholic population, perhaps no more than any other element of the population, votes solely on the basis of self-interest, one of the questionable assumptions of polling statistics. Or, stated differently, cultural self-interest concerns are more important than the type of self-interest attributed to any population conceived in rationalist terms.
The Hispanic, Catholic population will more likely vote for someone representing stern, tough, father culture in contrast to the less gendered nurturance culture that one finds, say, in the Midwest and old white cultures of the East Coast.
Democratic politicians are best advised to pay attention to culture as much as to the conclusions of those engaged in statistical polling—across the board, with respect to every subculture in the country. It’s more difficult and complex, but more accurate.
5
What does the Democratic Party stand for? Once we cross off issues that fall under the heading of identity politics, little remains. I'm a lifelong Democrat, and I have an increasingly difficult time saying anything beyond, "At least they're not Republicans." That's a slender reed on which to support a political party.
My guess is that the middling enthusiasm of Hispanic voters for the Democrats roughly mirrors that of white voters in general. Thank goodness for adult Democrats like Nancy Pelosi. Imagine the disaster of a progressive Speaker of the House.
3
If the Democratic party wants to gain and retain power, it should stop considering the "identity" of the voters. Every person eligible to vote in this country is an American... period. If the Democrats would actually DO (or at least attempt to do) the things Trump lied about doing during his campaign, that is recognize the problems of working families... jobs, education costs, healthcare, they would have all the votes they needed, and not have to notice the identities of the people voting for them.
7
Just some reasons of mine that are really ideas and maybe people can grow on my ideas and take a look at these ideas.
USA has an electronic voting system - so has the system been hacked into and those people didn't vote at all. Maybe they sold their votes. Maybe they can't write English and no one has shown them HOW to go about voting and they don't know what box they're ticking. Maybe look at why their nations are the way they are because of the way the citizens voted. I know this isn't PC but maybe they're hard workers and want jobs. Maybe they think any government is better than the one they left behind , in their country of birth, so don't bother to vote. Others could add to this list and it would probably be more rational if the USA did a survey of those ethnicities that did vote and ask why they voted the way they did, if in fact it was them that actually voted under their names.
Part of the problem is that there is no such thing as a Latino vote as such. The Latino population in the US is immensely varied, as varied as Mexico, Central America, and the entire Caribbean basin. As varied as New York, Miami, Chicago, Los Angeles and Houston. As varied as Iowa, Washington State and New Mexico. There are regional, ethnic, racial, and class factors that in a national election demand not a single approach to a "Latino vote" but different approaches to a complex mix of people. Anything less spells failure in 2020.
9
@Edward Baker
Good comment Edward Baker, but I also would like to say, give it time. And we have time. Two more years of the Trump WH bashing Mexican nationals and Mexican -Americans, separating families at the border, and also, denigrating Puerto Ricans on an almost daily basis,... I think we might see some support for the ABT ticket, which will most certainly be the Democratic ticket, since the Republicans are too afraid of Trump to run against him in the 2020 primaries.
There's a lot wrong here. Latinos are not some automatic Democratic constituency. There's no attempt to even address that there are over 20 Latino countries, each culturally distinct, and each with distinct cultures within it.
There's also something here uncomfortably similar to canards of Jewish dual-loyalty we've recently seen come from Democrats, and specifically the Democratic left, as the article refuses to acknowledge that Latino Americans are first and foremost Americans. Americans of Venezuelan decent, for example, may care deeply about what is going on in Venezuela, but that doesn't make them any less loyal to America, or mean that they aren't deeply bothered by illegal immigration, because I can tell you personally most are.
Further, Latinos are more religious that most Anglos, and far more religious than left-wing Anglos, who typically aren't religious at all. Over 20 percent of Latino Americans are religious Protestants, specifically Pentecostals, and share many beliefs with other evangelicals. In addition, many Latinos come from families which had very bad experiences with left-wing politicians in Central and South America.
Many Latinos may intensely dislike Trump, but actually agree with him on some issues. It means Democrats can't take Latinos for granted and should ignore the Identity Politics obsessed Democratic Left and follow Nancy Pelosi in focusing on things Latinos, like most Americans, care about, including fairer taxes and affordable healthcare.
14
I thought this essay would be better. Long -- very long -- on statistics, but little in the way of answering "why."
5
Overall I would give Democrats this advice:
Don't condescend, and don't pander! Hispanics are just as smart as you, and if they see through a lie, you're doomed! Be honest.
5
Why don’t white people just be better and stop voting for republicans and then we can have nice things.
7
@SM because then we would have all the nice things Venezuelans have...
4
@SM
SM, your sense of irony is wonderful.
2
Religion
Abortion
ILLEGAL Immigration
Taxes
Economy
Dems are on the wrong side of these issues for Hispanics as well as anywhere non-coastal.
14
@Russian Bot To which you should add gun control, which has lost more state and local elections for the Dems than all of the above put together.
1
This article is ignoring the religious factor in the Hispanic vote. Many 1st- and 2nd-generation Guatemalan, Honduran, and Salvadoran Americans are theologically conservative, evangelical or fundamentalist Protestants who are easily persuaded (often by their pastors) to vote GOP based on "family values," abortion, LGBT issues, etc. despite the Republican Party's stance on immigration. Theologically and politically, many Latino and Asian-American immigrants take their cues from white evangelicals of the Religious Right, not from MALDEF or the ACLU. I've even heard an interview on Spanish Christian radio in which the journalist was trying to make the Border Patrol sound compassionate.
7
I was hoping that this article would try to answer it's own question, but after citing a series of statistics, seemed to conclude that we just need to invest in voter turnout efforts. What I was hoping for was a critique of Democratic policies and message. People don't turn out to vote when they don't think that politicians will actually help them in their own lives. Maybe for Latino voters, the most important issue is not immigration or identity politics, but issues shared by other groups like schools, jobs, and health care. Furthermore, maybe it is patronizing to assume that the only way you win Latino votes is via immigration issues. To me, the low voter turnout among Latinos poses a striking parallel to the voting rate of young people. When there are no candidates on the stage convincing the voter that their personal needs are being addressed, there's no reason to get off the couch. So perhaps these pollsters should focus less on voter turnout and partisanship, and more on top issues for Latino voters so that our party can make sure those concerns are prominently represented in the platform.
3
It is interesting that this piece treats the category of Hispanic as something that can simply be assumed to be a voting block 20, 50, or 100 years down the road. It was prudent in 1920 to campaign for the (assumed eternally Democratic) "Irish vote" but it would be foolish today to make assumptions about the political allegiances of the Murphy family based merely upon that surname. On the other hand, black Americans actually do have a history of group cohesive party allegiance (as Republicans prior to the 1930's and then subsequently as Democrats since then). The unspoken hypothesis here is that Hispanic voters will turn out to be LIKE black voters but UNLIKE previously solid ethnic block votes such as the Irish or the Italians. This may well prove to be the case, but then the burden of proof is upon whoever makes that argument.
4
Hispanic culture is a conservative often Catholic based clan and large family based society that often is firmly entrenched in the grey economy ie cash based with minimal records. This dove tails with the antitax small government get rid of the useless IRS sentiments of the Trump base. They are overall younger than their Caucasian neighbor's, very media savy and know exactly how the welfare state and the various subsidies work. The Republicans know this, somehow the liberal "coastal elites" overlook reality. They are in it for the long run and know they have the flexibility to deal with significant shrinkage of the safety net, reasoning that by the time the pullbacks occur their clan wealth will be established. Maybe their University educated children will be in the coastal class but for the rest they will be the heart and soul of the future Republican party.
I overhead the perfect description of this in a local northern CA surgery center break room: two nurses were talking about putting up some solar panels: " my Mexicans will get them up and running by the weekend ( it was Tuesday ) , u want his cell phone?"
4
1. Hispanic is not a race but a culture so thinking of Hispanics as a voting block or specified group is inherently wrong.
2. Within Hispanics are various types of religious beliefs that have a stronger force behind voting than just being Hispanic.
3. Some Hispanics have been greatly supported by one US political party vs. being the victim of mistreatment by other US political parties
4. The Diaspora deludes with generations. There is a huge difference between 1st and 4th generation immigrants.. especially when you incorporate inter-marriage and financial disparities that happen with generational growth.
Ultimately, a Hispanic can be a white, Evangelical within the financial 10-20% of American earners as much as a Hispanic can be a black, Catholic living in a city making less than 35k annual who deals with crime, housing insecurity and the need for financial aid to get their kid through college.
3
@Brooklyn Confidential
"1. Hispanic is not a race but a culture so thinking of Hispanics as a voting block or specified group is inherently wrong. "
If anything, it would seem that a "culture" would have more reasons to vote as a block than a "race", since "culture" presumably include ideas and values that may correlate with voting behavior, whereas "race" is a made-up category with no real content.
1
@PGH Not really. There are about 22 or so countries with Spanish as their primary language and that spreads pretty wide in terms of local economics, religions, education and regional issues. There is a reason why Cuban Americans in Florida tend to be Republican and for that same reason its why Dominicans are on the opposite side of that very same issue. And it goes on and on.. Also, a lot of Hispanics are white or white passing and aligning yourself as a white Hispanic who is Republican is a matter of economic survival for say… a 4th generation Mexican American who is a business owner in Texas. In NYC being a conservative isn’t all that advantageous to Hispanic Americans. Also, religion. Hispanics are more conservative than White Evangelicals in practice but the problem with the party that prevents a lot of Hispanics or conservative immigrants in general, is racism.
I’m not religious but was raised pretty conservative Catholic by immigrant parents and as a culture we cannot understand the American White Evangelicals. Not throwing knives but we think they are anti-Christian in so many ways so aligning with their politics has always been a solid no.
Below has been my feedback from the Hispanic Community:
1. Hispanic Americans are not a monolithic group. They are from different countries, different backgrounds and full of diversity of thought, hence not all Democrat.
2. Hispanic groups don't always identify with each other. Trump's dealings with Puerto Rico may not resonate with groups from Mexico as much as people think.
3. Despite a harsh policy, many Hispanics understand the need for a tough vetting process. When you have experienced hyper-ISIS like violence (that rarely seems to get reported on in the USA), many Hispanics understand that it is an unacceptable risk that the USA not do everything it can to make sure someone coming is not part of that drug culture violence.
4. A great deal of crime against the Hispanic community goes unreported especially among undocumented groups. They therefore support a strong vetting process.
5. Many of the LEGAL Hispanic immigrants have spent lots of time an money complying with the law to insure that they have followed the proper process to gain legal residency. Many are therefore against ILLEGAL immigration even though illegals are coming to escape violence.
6. Social services are currently overwhelmed with issues related to people coming from drug violence cultures. Often illegals make those services less available to people already here.
Issues on the ground are more important than bad and even seemingly racist rhetoric and the Democrats don't have solutions.
14
How can you write this without considering the vast differences between people whose families migrated from one Spanish-speaking place as opposed to another? You mention Cubans from Florida, okay, and then Puerto Ricans only in the context of the hurricane. Latinos are a much more varied group and one would hope that the Democrats will consider the differences among Mexicans, Dominicans, Ecuadorians, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, etc. as they campaign and govern.
5
The whole problem with the Democratic narrative is that they see the entire Hispanic community as one uniform voting block that has the same issues while that is hardly the case. The truth is that some parts of the democratic agenda suits some parts of the community, while others do not. Take immigration for instance, not every Hispanic voter supports illegal immigration or even a path to legalization for the undocumented. The entire Hispanic community that is eligible to vote is here legally, the undocumented provide the most labor market competition to those in the same segment who are legal workers, and the undocumented have an advantage because they work off the books, the undocumented also give a bad name to those here legally. The Hispanics also for the most part happen to be devout Catholics, hardly in tune with the Democratic litmus test on Abortion and the generally anti-religious, anti-catholic stance. Like all immigrants who came before them, the Hispanics lose contact with their culture after 1-2 generation and get absorbed in American society as Whites or Blacks. So the issues that resonate with 1st generation Hispanics are not going to resonate with the 3rd generation.
6
I hope all American citizens, no matter their ethnicity, consider more than immigration as a voting issue ... with trump we are losing free speech, the press, financial gain at all levels, freedom of religion, freedom of choices, Russian tyrannical behavior the likes of which we have NEVER experienced in this country before. This will only get worse if trump wins in 2020, because if he does, you won't have to worry about immigration at that point just his iron fist.
Number 1- Hispanics seem to have no confidence in politics affecting their lives. Mexico's political history of corruption maybe part of this. They see politics as a waste of time. Many do and with good reason.
Number 2- It is often difficult for them to vote. Few polling places, voter suppression, short voting time, lots of paper work and fear of being targeted by the authorities stop them.
Number 3- Total confusion. Ads and media contradict each other on every subject. One says the color is white and the next, no, its black.
Number 4- They have seen no improvement in their situation regardless of which group is in office.
Our political system is totally dysfunctional and is a big sham to allow the rich and powerful to assure their well being. Vote all you want but the special interests will run things.
3
Democrats need to remember Tip ONeil's advise. He reminded a young politician that he voted for him (I believe it was JKF), but only out of loyalty to the party. He was upset that he was not asked for his vote and reminded the young pol that one can never assume someone is going to vote for you. You have to ask people for that person's vote.
4
This piece ignores the religious convictions of a large subset to Latinos. As the Democratic party moves ever further out on issues such as abortion, it will find it harder and harder to attract religious Latinos. And this is in spite of Trump's anti-Hispanic rhetoric. So one can expect that Republicans who are not Trump will attract an even larger contingent of Latinos; those who believe the Democratic party is antithetical and even hostile to their religious sensibilities.
5
Indeed, who are those 30- to 45% of Hispanics who vote for a Republican candidate in the era of Trump anti-immigrant and racist rhetoric and policy? I think we need look no further than religion, patriarchal family values and the abortion question for most of the answer, which is the answer that explains why so many white women and working class white men vote Republican and will never hear anything else a Democrat has to say. Another thought: Where is the polling data that explains what Hispanic citizens want from their government and how is it any different from what white, black, Asian, Middle Eastern and other racial and cultural groups want? My advice to Democrats is to speak to all Americans as Americans first, whether you're standing on a platform their neighborhoods or on their television screens. Speak to them as workers and entrepreneurs, as providers and caretakers for their children and elders, all as "dreamers" of a better life, as people who need healthcare and retirement security, good-paying jobs, good education, decent housing, fairness and justice, safety in their homes and streets, clean water, air and a habitable planet. Appeal to their American identity because that's what they all are.
2
There is not an unique "Latino', We have many different opinions and political positions.
I lean democratic in most issues. However, I truly dislike the sympathy that most USA liberal/democrats have towards leftist autocracies such as Cuba and Venezuela. I disagree with the Trump administrtiion almost on anything but I fully agree with their condemnation and strong stance against the Venezuelan Maduro regime.
7
I think we may need a few more media types to stir the pot- not many because we’re already awash.
Many Hispanics still imagine that the are white or are going to be treated as if they were white-- because of their skin complexion. Skin complexion is a distinguishing feature and source of discrimination even in Spanish speaking countries like Cuba--where all is supposed to be equal. Hispanics have benefited from affirmative action without making the sacrifices that black Americans have had to make to confront the violent racism of the Jim Crow South. Blacks have learned from this experience that Hispanics have not had to endure. Hispanic citizens consider themselves different from the immigrants trying to cross our border (they are already citizens) and don't see the attacks on immigrants the same as attacking them. The reality is that the anti- immigration movement includes plenty of racists who do not see them as real Americans. Just like Trump does not consider Puerto Ricans as real American citizens and sees them only a financial burden-- not as citizens entitled to disaster relief support from the federal government as much as people in Texas and Alabama.
1
The general fallacy in the article is the belief that the "Hispanic" vote is monolithic. Truth be told Latino's tend to be a very diverse grouping of various people from various cultures who have a couple of basic cultural tenets in agreement. A mother language, a mother religion and a shared heritage of cultural imperialism bestowed by Spanish Europeans.
1
According to Pew Research, Latinos made up an estimated 11% of all voters nationwide in 2016, nearly matching their share of the U.S. eligible voter population.
Based on validated voter data, Pew says Hispanic men voted for Democrats 65% to 28% and Hispanic women voted Democratic 67% to 28%.
A lot of the "why don't Democrats do better with Hispanics?" meme is churned out by Republican-affiliated think tanks and PAC's looking to muddy the waters. Not every Hispanic person is going to vote for Democrats. Their life experiences are far more diverse than those of black Americans. But when your party is losing 2/3rds of a segment of the electorate, it's just a campaign tactic to hammer on "why the other 1/3rd doesn't like Democrats".
1
African-Americans almost universally have non-white, some shade of black skin as do Indian-Americans.
Americans of far eastern ancestry are easily separated from those of white European extraction.
Hispanics have black, brown and white skins and my instinct is the lighter the complexion, the more favorable experience of the US individuals with a Latin-American background will have had. (The same is likely true of immigrants from Islamic nations.)
This simple variety of skin tone is not discussed in the article nor mentioned in the comments I've read.
Poll Hispanics by racial stereotype, and you may get your 90-10 or 80-20 splits.
1
@Jamal
The point I'm trying to make is if your skin shade is dark enough, you live a very different life in America than a pasty white Scottish-American like myself.
Scotland is 96% white. Included in this statistic are a small percentage of other ethnicities including Eastern Europeans. The non-white 4% are Caribbean, South Asian and a few Africans. My guess is a native white Scot, on sight would have a difficult time singling out any white immigrant, but not be much challenged to spot any of the 4% the national census defines as non-white.
The same is true in the US and affects our politics profoundly.
1
I am an American of Asian decent; you know, that continent that spans 11 timezones. I left the Democratic party after it became obvious that people like me, to them, were the disposable minority ( see Bill De Blasio's comments on too many asians at the Specialized High Schools ). It was then the scales fell from my eyes and the Dems strategy of divide and conquer, pitting one identity group against another became obvious to me. Do they have a strategy to lift all boats that is not based on identity politics or class envy? If so, I have not heard it.
8
As Hispanic myself my experience is that many of not most Hispanics are very Christian conservative and that drives their votes to Republicans, even through the immigration stance and policies.
5
Only the northeastern liberal elite would be unable to understand Latino ambivalence to the Dem Party.
If the Dems elect some senators, representatives and a president who enact legislation that lifts the economic prospects of working people, they would not only get the Latino vote - they would render the Republican Party extinct in a few election cycles.
Here's another bit of information that liberals don't get: the establishment Dems need the Republicans, and vice versa, for the purpose of pretending that our system is democratic.
7
@Ed Watters: The dems tried lifting the prospects of working people. That halcyon era is now called the Obama years. What we got in response was a racist explosion of right-wing anger that has given us Trump.
Young people are vocal but don't vote. Unfortunately, the same is true for Latino's except for Cubans in Florida. Finally, black men don't vote. If these three populations did vote we might not have Trump. Of course, we might as the Blue Wall crumbled without substantial populations of each demographic group but boy would it be helpful if they voted their interested as well as the white working class.
1
@Dan L If you want non-voting blocs do vote, they need a reason to vote. And the Democratic party just doesn't give these people anything to vote for.
3
My two cents
1. The Latino vote depends on the candidate. When I lived
in CA, a surprising number told me they would vote for
Schwarzenegger. Subsequent conversation showed
that they identified with his immigrant experience -
working his way up from a poor immigrant to governor
2. The Asian support for Democrats is falling.
More attempts by Democrats to replace merit
based admission to eduation by racial quotas will lose
this group altogether
8
Working in labor and delivery in the eighties in LA, I would ask families what they wanted, a boy or a girl. They would almost always say Lo que sea, which means more or less Whatever will be will be. I could never get them to say what they wanted. These were poor people. Oppressed for centuries. Fatalism and powerlessness in their DNA. Just saying.
The kind of progressive worldview that is taught at elite universities has become very influential in politics and media and in the educated class in recent years, and this is going to be disastrous for the left in general. This view basically sees America as being comprised of discrete, homogenous units defined mainly by race and gender. Blacks, Hispanics, women, Moslems, etc. are sees as permanent aggrieved victim classes while white people, especially white men, are a permanent oppressor class. By this logic all Democrats have to do is wait for white people to become a minority.
The problem is that most minorities are not nearly as race-obsessed or generally left-wing as urban progressives imagine them to be. Most Moslems, Latin Americans, Indians. etc, come from socially conservative cultures with their own class and ethnic hierarchies. Most are religious. Most are just trying to get ahead in the world, and don't feel that they have some kind of natural kinship to American Blacks or to more recent arrivals from their home countries. Interracial marriage is now very common. Go back 3-5 generations and Italians and Irish were stigmatized minorities. Now many of their descendants live in the suburbs and vote Republican because they don't want to pay taxes. There is no reason this won't happen with Asians, Hispanics, or any other group. The way to combat this is to quit pretending like identity is a substitute for ideas, and to articulate an actual vision for society.
6
@MK
"The kind of progressive worldview that is taught at elite universities has become very influential in politics and media and in the educated class in recent years, and this is going to be disastrous for the left in general."
This seems to be a fantasy and talking point of the right . I went to an elite university and never saw this attempt to brain wash college students with progressive ideals. The fact is republicans are such hypocrites and liars that young people easily see thru their lies and lean towards progressive view points. For example, explain why the republicans after 70 attempts to repeal Obamacare still have not produced ANY alternative health plan? Young people see this and naturally are going to support people who actually try to find answers to our problems --rather than blame the "permanently aggrieved minorities" you speak of.
Perhaps the reason Latinos - an overly broad categorization of an extremely diverse group of human beings - aren't voting as much for Democrats as they are "supposed" to is that they are less driven by ethnic identity than they are issues.
For instance, maybe an American of Latino descent can still be concerned about the socioeconomic costs of an endless supply of desperate, unskilled illegal immigrants pouring in from Latin America, and recognize that the Democrats are no more serious about controlling illegal immigration than the Republicans are about affordable healthcare?
Maybe they are more culturally conservative than the progressive left standard bearers of the Democratic Party?
In other words, perhaps Latinos are real people with real concerns beyond mere ethnic solidarity that the Democrats can condescendingly appeal to?
8
My takeaway, Democrats expect minority groups to vote for them 100% and are befuddled when those groups don't perform as they want them to.
How about instead of expecting blind faith, you do something about the platform you are running on so it doesn't alienate a segment of the population you are counting on. At one point in the article, Pew research is quoted stating that 48% of Latinos believe there is the right amount of immigrants living in the US and 25% say there are too many. So 73% of your target group believes something which is opposite of your platform. Likely these people and/or their families pursued a legal path to immigration that was both hard-fought and expensive, yet your candidates are advocating an easier path for those who came here illegally. Why on earth would you expect their support?
9
I strongly believe in turnout. It is difficult to imagine or reason why people don't vote. It may be a bit cultural but I believe that parents and community are the driving force behind voting. I know a lot of families in immigrant communities who pay little or no attention to politics. Their children subsequently don't either and the life cycle goes on. In my case I have always believed in voting and have strong liberal views on most topics. Hence my children hold similar views. They are my kids and I can guide them to what I think is right and what is wrong. I also believe in showing empathy to those who are less fortunate than us. Hold that all folks are equal under the law and that discrimination or suppression is bad. I hope parents and communities can help in that regard and lead to the US being a more caring nation with freedom and liberty for all. Please vote!
2
Does race or ethnicity really matter when it comes to desiring see your children get a good education and succeed?
Does race or ethnicity really matter when it comes to desiring a well-paid job in a safe environment that allows you to support your family?
Does race or ethnicity really matter when it comes to desiring to be able to access health care when you need it without worrying about the financial impact?
Race or ethnicity DOES matter when it comes to desiring not to be hassled, discriminated against, or shot by a cop, but it’s not the only thing on voters’ minds.
Campaign on the first three items and the Dems win most everyone over. Campaign on only the latter and, well, good luck. Campaign on all four, how can you lose?
4
Largely, the US electorate and the pundits look at the political picture in black and white. There is little appreciation of the richer color reality of the population. Asians lean Republican because of strong cultural attitudes against being identified as "racial minority." Among Hispanics there are important divisions; many of them refuse to be identified as non-white and somehow natural allies of blacks. Many Mexican-Americans in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona, resent being identified as "Mexicans." There is a long history of antagonism between Mexican "Mexicans" and white Mexicans, which in Texas often translates as Texas Mexicans and Mexican Mexicans. "Mexican" still bears the stigma of racially non-white. Add the factor of religion and the picture gets further complicated for Democrats. Many poor Latinos have converted to Evangelical sects and vote against abortion no matter how that may affect their lives in other ways. Better educated Latinos have a liberal political orientation and are becoming a force among younger Latinos. However, the data cited in this article may not change much. Much as there are blacks who support Trump, there are Latinos who echo his tweets. Many of the Border guards are very good at profiling because they are familiar with their kin.
7
@Lara
The reasons that Latinos vote or don't vote are many and varied. They include nativity, socioeconomic interests, age, gender, and education. The Democratic Party for years has taken the Latino population for granted. In 2000, when Bush was running for office his campaign made a concerted effort through social media to garner the votes of Latino voters. Most Latino voters are conservative, and the democrats need to address explicit issues that concern them.
2
@Lara
"Asians lean Republican"?
Then why did 72% of them vote for Democratic House candidates in 2016? And 75% of them voted against Trump.
I’m a Cuban-American, my parents were lifelong Republicans until their deaths at ages 88 and 97. My sisters and I have over the years shifted to Democrats and become liberals. In 2016, my Dad 97, voted for Hillary, because he could see through the Trump lies. So, Hispanics and Latinos shift, we like to argue politics and we have very strong opinions.
Unfortunately, for the Democrats Latinos are not committed to vote. The Latino turn out, with the exception of Florida, is iffy. Democrats have to court Latino voters and give them a very good reason to get out to vote. It’s complicated, and there are no easy solutions to getting the Latino vote out.
Florida is an anomaly, because the old Cubans are still around and will continue to vote GOP.
5
@Mari Is that because they lived through and hate communism so much they see shadows of it in the Democratic platform?
3
Read your headline and immediately thought that, since the "white" vote is split, why shouldn't others? And thanks for noting in the article that another reason might be: Why should voters go for a party that just assumes it's how things work?
It would be refreshing if both parties threw out the coded phrases and dog whistles and focused on educating everyone, getting them healthcare, making it possible for all of them to have jobs, and work on the jobs paying enough to make them increase the security of each worker.
I won't hold my breath, but I can wish for things.
8
My experience as someone who has canvassed for many years for the democrats, is that there is not a targeted strategy for reaching out to Latinos( and they should be called that- not Hispanics). There need to be resources set aside by the party fo hiring Spanish speakers ,especially Latinos themselves. As a professor who taught many Latino students in California I found that they were very receptive when they felt that they were understood.
3
I respectfully disagree with the basic profound premise.
The future of the Democratic Party does not depend upon the Hispanic vote.
Quite to the contrary.
The future of the Democratic Party most probably depends upon it being perceived as fairly representing all Americans without respect to "race", gender, etc. and in many of the 50 States.
Exit polls quite clearly suggest that Hillary lost her presidential election because white female voters did not vote for her, probably because they were turned off by Hillary representing herself as the woman's candidate, rather than a president who would represent every single American fairly without respect to "race", gender, etc.
Winning the Senate and the electoral college requires winning millions of votes in many different States where Hispanics are not a major segment of the electorate.
7
@David
Are you actually saying Trump represents "every single American fairly without respect to "race", gender, etc."??
1
The article ignores the GOP's blatant efforts to suppress votes from the Hispanic community. It's no coincidence that calls and flyers go out every election telling Hispanic voters that ICE will be checking immigration status at the polls. And then there are the petty offenses like moving or closing polling places where "those people" usually vote.
The GOP looks at that chart of voters and fear quakes in their cowardly bones that they're losing the electorate. So their solution is to "fix" the electorate to maintain power.
7
I believe the only number that needs to be addressed is the 100,000,000 one. (which is roughly the number of eligible voters that sit out any given election)
I also believe that trying to filter out all of the percentages for any one particular demographic is no longer a path to victory. All of the numbers have been turned on their head in the last couple of election cycles.
As redistricting, disenfranchisement, and out and out election fraud committed by republicans take their toll and win close elections in key districts, what it also appearing in the numbers is that true Progressives are winning against all of those odds. They are winning with minorities and women especially. They are winning in any district (even bright red ones) and they are EXPANDING the electorate.
We can try and calculate the percentages on usual election norms, but these times are not normal. (especially when all elections are still attacked and influenced by foreign powers and their preferred candidates)
Again, the number to concentrate on is that 100 million and trying to bring but a fraction of it to the polls. If so, then republicans become irrelevant, for their base is a shrinking minority.
Up to you.
4
Democrat decline to the count of over 1000 political offices is a standard datum. Obviously, the Democrats have failed to offer a meaningful alternative to the GOP everywhere and for years. Hispanics are just part of the same story.
The big success for the GOP was the tax cut. Did the Democrats contrast with the GOP tax cut by offering the opposite flow of cuts, big chunk for those grossing less than $75,000? Not at all. When they try to deliver to the likes of many Hispanic families earning less than $75,000, they might awaken interest in Democratic support among the same folks.
Democrats don't come near the GOP for political smarts or brass.
2
@stewart bolinger - yet the national vote aggregate shows that more people vote for Democrats than Republicans. Obamacare was one mechanism that flows money towards the lower and middle class, by the way. Note which party is fighting against it without any plan to replace. Hint: the party that lost the popular vote for President in 6 of the last 7 elections.
1
@stewart bolinger
By "smarts and brass" you mean, dishonest, hypocritical attacks on Democrats and non-stop lying about their policies and liberal policies.
@stewart bolinger
How many Hispanic people do you actually know? No one is fooled by the GOP's bait-and-switch tax cut that delivered ONLY for their wealthy donors. All the rest of us get is the debt to fund it.
Go out and talk to some Hispanic people today and ask them how many are voting GOP because of the tax bill. It's the most unpopular thing the Republican party has passed in years - except among the 1% who the rest of us are now feeding.
An illegal was being interviewed during the 2016 election and he was going on and on about how he loved America, the opportunity he was given to get a good job, the ability to send back money to his family to help them out, and the money he could save to eventually return back to his country and buy a home.
The interviewer then asked who he would vote for Trump or Clinton. Trump he proudly pronounced, he would be a strong leader.
5
Stop using the dehumanizing term “illegal” this is not Germany 1930’s! No one is illegal, they are undocumented immigrants!
@Mari
You left wing purists will drive moderate Democrats out of the Party and right into the lap of Republicans.
2
Excellent background analysis. I have long felt that two cultural aspects of the Latino experience work to maintain a basic conservatism in those...in many respects, quite diverse...groups. Those are long exposure to Catholic religious structures and authority, and a prominent male-dominant mind-set that places high value on competition and combativeness. The combination of (passive) regard for, and acceptance of, authority figures, as well as long acquaintance with military organizations and top-down, is reinforced by long histories of non-democratic political leadership. All work to undermine the countervailing impulses to self-assertion and resistance to authority emanating from leaders.
5
The most successful "change" elections happen when a candidate goes after every single vote - and means it. See Clinton '92.
The most vulnerable incumbents are those that take certain supporters for granted. See Clinton '16. (yes, not technically an incumbent, but....)
Dems lost in '16 because they were practicing their victory laps, not earning them. Because - how could they lose against Trump? No way!
If Dems lose in '20, it will be because they make some variation of the same mistake.
Ignore the polls, pursue every single vote like your life depends on it. Then take your bows. But don't forget to deliver.
12
Also, Obama ‘08 and ‘12! He visited every state even the solid Red ones.
1
Now that they're here, we have to care for them! We have no choice. We should try to make conditions better there so they don't have to endure these horrific situations.
1
@DudeNumber42
You do realize you are talking about American citizens, right? Every one of whom have exactly the same rights as every other citizen, no matter what their color.
And y'all wonder why they don't want to vote for your party?
1
@DudeNumber42
We are speaking of Latino voters, U.S. citizens, not immigrants. Just what are you talking about? Not every Latino is a recent immigrant. My ancestors have been in the U.S. for over a hundred years! Just how long does it take to be an American.
3
Latino voters are not monolithic and should not be expected to vote as such. The important thing is that every Latino citizen should vote and vote in every election that they can so that their voice may be heard.
35
@Natalie J Belle MD Pollsters and data analysts conduct their work by placing people into recognizable categories. Not all white males without a college degree from the midwest voted for Trump, but it is a category which allows for broad based - and generally accurate - generalizations.
3
It really isn't complicated. Most Hispanics identify as white. They also have the highest rates of intermarriage with non-Hispanic whites. White people who speak Spanish are still white people (easily seen by how Black people are treated in their home/ancestral countries) and the Republican party is the white people party.
3
I can only speak for Washington state where a friend and I tried every avenue we could think of within the Democratic Party and individual candidate organizations to find information and events in eastern Washington farming country. We wanted to help register new voters including, we presumed, some of the many Latinos in the area. We were pointed from one organization to another and were completely unable to find any way in to help. Give me a break! Cathy McMorris Rogers must have been pleased. If Democrats cannot get their act together, the rest is irrelevant.
7
What should really worry Democrats is that not only Hispanics but even the comments on this and other NYT articles (on race, gender, ISIS, immigration, cultural appropriation, campus culture etc.) are steadily moving to the right of the positions of newly minted Democratic politicians. In response to this sharp leftward shift of the party, seasoned Democratic Presidential hopefuls are trying to clamber onto the wokemobile and end up looking inauthentic.
12
Not true, demographics show that we are moving left of center! Proof? The midterm election! Which elected more progressives than ever!
@Mari
Just because Far Left Progressives are displacing moderate Democrats in guaranteed Democratic constituencies doesn't mean they will flip any Republican or even swing constituencies, let alone Republican or swing states.
Simple question. How would it help a Democratic Presidential candidate if New York or California turned even more blue in 2020? The Democrats would have got those two states under all circumstances. How would New York progressivism help Democrats to win in Florida or Ohio or Wisconsin? In fact unchecked progressivism in swing states will almost surely galvanize the Republicans in those states and help Trump.
3
The trouble with Polls is that the term "Hispanic" is too broad and ill-defined. Culture, skin color and heritage play major roles in how people define themselves. White Cubans, for example (especially those who left Cuba shortly before and after the '59 Revolution) think of themselves as being "different" from most immigrants from Latin America. Puerto Ricans, Venezuelans, Colombians and Panamanians are racially diverse and are very proud of their respective roots and sub-cultures. Central Americans are quite diverse as well, and the most privileged (minority) also tend to be conservative. Many of those whose roots rest in the Southwest and California (along the US-Mexican and the border) dislike the term "Hispanic" because they are proud of their indigenous heritage, and deeply resent being lumped together with those groups mentioned above.
Everyone in the United States has a history. Some had a privileged existence from the beginning, some arrived against their own will as slaves, and most had to work hard in menial jobs, confident that their children and grandchildren would have better lives.
6
I shed any assumptions about how Hispanics will vote back in 2004 when I observed a bumper sticker on a beat up pick-up which read "Farmworkers for Bush".
3
Probably because "Hispanics" don't think of themselves that way. Spanish speaking people from the Americas, and the United States, are a politically diverse bunch of people. The very term "Hispanic" was a demographic concept that came from survey researchers and marketers.
7
I have some Hispanic friends who tell me Hispanics are famous for seeing themselves as “white.”
If this is true, and I suspect there’s truth to it, from what one reads about places like the Dominican Republic or indeed Brazil now, many probably identify with Trump even as he hounds them!
One indicator, as alluded to earlier, may be the way they treat blacks and black Haitians in the Dominican Republic. There’s rampant racial profiling, and a few years ago they even retroactively denied many blacks, who are mostly Haitians or decscendants of Haitians, citizenship.
My impression, I hope I am wrong, but I think I am more right than wrong, from my experience socializing with Hispanics, they sure don’t like Trump harassing them.
However, they may deslike being black even more.
5
Hispanics, are descendants of Spaniards. I’m Hispanic, second generation. My grandparents on both sides are from Spain, and we can easily trace our roots. We have second and third cousins whom we ave and will visit. So yeah......Hispanics identify as white....we are children and grandchildren of Spaniards!
1
How can you write an article like this and completely fail to acknowledge that Latino immigrants are overwhelmingly from catholic countries and backgrounds. The anti abortion mantra of the Catholic Church still has a very large influence with Latinos.
10
@John David James
Very important point. Many Hispanics are strongly opposed to abortion, especially given the democrats move allow it at any stage. This will hurt the dems in 2020 with many Hispanics.
1
Because Progressives don't share their values...next question.
6
Is it just me, or our the people who look at he statistics more worried about whether Latinos will vote for them than the numerous problems, stereotyoes, and prejudices that prevent Latinos from getting involved in politics? You want us to vote for you? Then treat us like we are more than numbers on a page.
7
Hispanic Americans trend toward conservatism on many issues. Now that most are native-born Americans, the majority oppose illegal immigration. This is especially true now the most illegal immigrants are Centra Americans rather than Mexicans.
2
Why?
Because latinos like everyone else see the absolute insanity of supporting illegal immigration.
Let this sink in: Trump's support among latinos is now at 50%. In 2016, Trump won a bigger share of the Latino vote than Romney did.
Face it: across all demographics and all income groups except the oligarchs, the American public has had it with our elites' support for this disastrous and utterly incomprehensible policy of supporting the entry into this country of tens of millions of illiterate peasants who have utterly no right to be here.
Persist in supporting this debacle, and you will hand the election to Trump - AGAIN.
End this madness.
Zero tolerance for illegal immigration.
6
@T-Bone
Trump's support among Latinos is nowhere near 50%.
He tells you it is, but you might want to check those figures. Just a suggestion.
2
@J Anders
Marist:
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/02/24/2020-hispanic-voters-donald-trump-225192
McLaughlin:
http://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/National-MA-Monthly-Omnibus-March-Release.pdf
POLITICO/Morning Consult:
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2019/trump-approval-rating-polls/
Stick with facts, J Anders.
Then you won't be blindsided by reality - like Hillary and her supporters in Nov. 2016.
2
Whoever you are, don't fail to recognize that Trump is a destructive trickster. You'll always be endangered.
5
It might be colorisim. Hispanic refers to the language spoken of a demographic-- it's rarely asked but I wouldn't be surprised if colorism is at play. White Hispanics are like Italian-Americans, Irish-Americans or any other group termed "white" in American racial parlance. I suspect as these white Hispanics assimilate, you see their politics converge with that of the white population in general (more conservative). For darker skinned Hispanics, complete assimilation is about as possible as it has been for black Americans (who have been here for hundreds of years)--impossible to assimilate as easily when you are visually distinctive given the racialized attitudes of American society. We rarely explore the effects of colorism as it relates to Hispanics, but if we did I wouldn't be surprised is this partially (not completely) explained the voting patterns of the group coined Hispanics (a monolith grouping).
2
How about the fact that there is no Hispanic vote? Combining Puerto Rican’s, Cubans, Mexicans and Central Americans into one bucket ignores significant cultural differences.
97
@CSD
Not to mention individual free minds.
1
Many Hispanics differentiate between legal and illegal immigration and those running a business tend to become Republicans. Immigrants from Cuba and Venezuela want nothing to do with leftist policies that ruined their home countries either.
7
@Lane
Venezuela is a kleptocracy, not a leftist government.
I've got news for you, as someone who is been together with a Hispanic woman for the last 18 years: most Hispanics are pretty conservative. They are on the whole more religious than average Americans, they hold conservative views on things like abortion, and yes, immigration; they believe in hard work instead of handouts, and opportunity in favor of free this or free that. If the Democratic Party thinks the Hispanics are going to vote for them in droves just because they are "minorities", they are in for a huge disappointment.
22
@Mike on the other hand, voting for a party that will no protect them in their workplaces, educate their children, protect the environment they live in or provide decent healthcare doesn’t sound like a good trade off to me. Your conservative wife might want to consider that virtually everywhere in America that is doing pretty well is liberal in its bent
1
@John David James I didn't say my wife was conservative. And again, you are assuming that everyone wants everything provided for them, which was kinda my point.
1
You know, this is not a one-size fits all solution because as many of your commentators note this is not a homogenous population, as is evident from the fact that you discuss neither the Puerto Rican voters in the Northeast or any of the Latinx voters in California. If there's no problem with their voting habits, why would there be one with Mexicans outside California and Cubans in Florida? The concept you have to use here given the differences is "all politics is local." Do that, Texas and Florida will most likely be blue again.
3
We Hispanics are very well aware of the perils of Socialism. Very aware.
13
@Asher, what about the perils of fascism and plain government thuggery? What exactly does the Trump presidency make you aware of?
How on God's Green Earth can the author go on about this subject while not once bringing up the fact that Hispanics are largely Catholic, and many vote on the abortion issue?
14
@Chris
This, or something much like it, was my first thought. Religion. So many people coming from many diverse ethnic backgrounds will ignore all of the actions of the GOP that erode the foundations of civil society and vote on that one murky issue, usually based on misrepresentation and outright ignorance. They will allow the GOP to eviscerate every other aspect of their lives and grind them into the dirt just to "protect the babies".
What people fail to mention is that a large part
of the male Hispanic voting subscribed to a “machismo” culture. Therefore if Dems want to
Recapture the WH and it pains me to say this,
Don’t put up a woman candidate for prez.
2
After I voted in the 2018 midterms, I met with a group of eight Americans Latinas (being myself in that category)at the home of one of them. None had voted. However, all were inclined to vote for democrats. Even if abortion is an important matter for some, their catholicism is generous enough to understand that abortion is an issue with your own conscience. So when I asked why they hadn't voted, the answers were surprising. Some because they didn't register believing it was too complicated (it can be done easily when becoming American), but the vast majority were intimidated by the whole process, not knowing how it was done and if they would do it correctly. Voting in many Latin American countries is completely different than in the United States. A woman, among the group, said that once she had been scolded by a poll worker because she had written checks inside the circles instead of filling them up. Another said that when she realized she had made a mistake and asked for another ballot, she had to wait a good amount of time before getting a new one, while being signaled as the woman who had done it wrongly. Perhaps if democrats want Hispanics to vote, they can start by the basics: reassuring us about the easiness of the process and explaining our constitutional rights related to voting, so voting doesn't become a risk of being once again put down.
6
Hispanics should not be taken for granted, but if we are to have any power, what we need to do is vote regardless of our political preference—27 percent is shameful. Bottom line: we need to make our voices heard by showing up on election day. I tend to be moderate on many issues, but lately, I find myself more and more unable to support a party whose members regularly paint people like me as freeloaders, criminals, and the scourge of society and question our right to vote based on our surname as the Republican authorities recently did in Texas. The current administration continues to stress its dislike of brown immigrants by proposing changes in immigration laws that prioritize family reunification, which happens to favor immigrants not of European descent. I think those are reasons enough to ask the question the column poses. I also wonder how many of those who condemn immigrants who arrive without the proper documents have themselves gone through the process of immigrating legally? Not only is it arduous, but it is incredibly expensive. It's a process that is skewed toward those who come from wealth. When President Reagan pushed through Amnesty, thousands of immigrants applied to legalize their status because they were able to do it without the additional financial burden. For me, it's not politics or dislike of a president. It's about compassion, acceptance and understanding. Unless things change radically, I know how I will vote in 2020.
2
What the elections in this article really suggest is that Cuban-Americans vote differently and look at things differently from most other Latinos. No doubt taking any voting bloc for granted is a mistake for the Democrats, but glossing over this difference between different groups is ignoring the most important thing.
1
The reason Democrats don't overwhelmingly win quote unquote "Hispanics" is that this category encompasses at least two very different categories of voters: actual Spanish speakers, and voters who are basically just assimilated Anglo-Americans with Spanish last names. I live in Texas where there are quite a few of the latter. The former category indeed vote overwhelmingly Democratic, but Joe Six Pack Garcia who lives somewhere in Texas is going to vote the same as Joe Six Pack Smith who lives next door to him. In other words, the reason so many "Hispanics" vote GOP statistically is that a lot of ordinary GOP voters are being classified as "Hispanics" by virtue of their last name only, rather than any real connection to Mexico or another Latin American country.
4
As a Latino, a naturalized citizen from Mexico, I did my undergraduate senior thesis on Latino voting. One thing I learned is that it’s not so much about culture as it is about class. Richer Latino’s tend to hold more conservative views. They oppose immigration, want to pay less taxes, and are often deeply religious. Even liberal Latino’s like my retired father-in-law will never accept gay marriage or abortion because of their Catholic faith. At family gatherings, where Spanish is spoken around the dinner table far more than English my older siblings who didn’t go to college and speak English with an accent (naturalized citizens as well) really didn’t care about politics and had to begged and pleaded with (by me) to go vote for Clinton. It’s a complicated demographic that could go either right or left in the coming elections.
4
How we lost Florida while the Blue Wave swept the rest of the country.
The bulk of the on-the-ground campaign consisted of trying to get people to vote by mail. If half the time and expense had been spent on convincing people why they had to vote Gillum and Nelson would have won.
1
Democratic party strategists would do well not to repeat the embarrassing strategy of the Hillary campaign by talking nonstop about immigration and unleashing Tim Kaine and his high school Spanish onto Telemundo. As a result, the Democrats actually lost Hispanic voters to Trump (which is quite an accomplishment given his open hostility toward them). According to several Pew polls, these voters tend to vote on the same issues (national security, the economy, healthcare, etc.) as other demographic groups.
2
In Chicago's recent election the Democratic Socialist won five seats in the city council. Four of those were Latino candidates, and one was black.
Because being Hispanic is an ethnicity not a race...which means you have white hispanics who tend to vote with republicans and black Hispanics who tend to vote democratic...then you have the racially mixed Hispanics who vote according to their closeness to the white race. It always comes down to race. There is racism in the Hispanic world just like there is racism here.
1
Puerto Rico has been approved to spend only $300 million in rebuilding assistance. Trumps lies are pure racist evil.
What an article! Aren't many Hispanics Catholic? Doesn't the Church say that abortion is murder? And no mention of it here? Talk about the elephant in the living room.
6
The question here is "why don't Hispanics overwhelming favor the party that is firmly committed to siding with 'people of color' against whites in all possible circumstances."
Good question actually. Must be driving the Democratic leadership nuts!
4
Typical mistake:
“Latinos”, like “women”, encompasses a too broad group of people and is therefore NOT a voting block.
4
More Latinos are grassroots Republicans than individuals who hail from any other racialized subculture.
It has something to do with the prominence of traditional family values in many Latino households—the importance of hard work, raising children, Catholicism, heteronormativity, And many disapprove of illegal migration.
For blacks, it is about GOP racism.
A small sliver of wealthier Asians will lean Republican.
For whites, it is about maintaining the status quo in the face of a shrinking population.
1. Bill Nelson deserved to lose; he took his re-election for granted and did very little campaigning
2. Rick Scott, as governor of Florida, bent over backwards to accommodate and assist Puerto Ricans relocating to Florida after Hurricane Maria
3. Abortion!
4. Immigration - I have yet to encounter any group more incensed by illegal immigration than legal immigrants
1
Hispanics are socially conservative, as are African-Americans. They are also acculturating at a rapid rate. Evangelical Christianity is growing quickly among Hispanics, particularly from Central America. At the same time, Hispanics who are here legally can absolutely support a strong border--why would I want more competition for the jobs I work so hard at? Democrats continue to miss these trends and assume that the enemy of my enemy must be my friend. This is foolish.
4
Two words. Voter Suppression!!
Republicans could win the Hispanic vote 80-20 if they stopped calling them rapists and murderers. Many Hispanics are business owners who don't favor burdensome rules and regulations. Many Hispanics don't favor legalized abortion into the third trimester. Many Hispanics don't favor paying high taxes to fund wasteful government programs. Many Hispanics favor a strong military. There is nothing about being Hispanic that makes one more likely to be a Democrat.
5
The truth is many Hispanics who are here legally despise those who gain illegal entry. Thus the siding with the Republican party.
7
It appears that many Hispanics do not like being told that they are poor, fragile, weak people who need the Democratic Party for salvation. Maybe many Hispanics realize that America is not a hopelessly racist nation and that one can prosper through hard work and intelligence
12
The loyalty and financial support of voters who belong to labor unions was ignored by elected Democrats. The loyalty of black voters to the Democrats got them nothing or less. Why should Latinos trust them? Most of today’s Democrats are the political party of hipsters (and writers on editorial pages of newspapers that most people no longer read) and little else.
2
The reason so many Hispanics will vote Republican in the next election is simple: many of them are hard-working, entrepreneurial, religious and believe in the rule of law--all things which the new Socialist Democrat Party stands against. Add to that the fact that many of them have first-hand experience with the evils of Socialism in their home countries--and there you have it.
Anyone who has lived in Mexico, Central or South America understands--the moment they step foot on our soil--America is truly exceptional. It is the land of opportunity--if you're willing to work for it--no matter who you are. Many Hispanics buy into the idea of the American Dream--and intuitively understand that Democrats who disparage the country, are either disingenuous, clueless or both.
These are the policies Democrats now embrace--which many Hispanics will have a problem with:
--3rd Trimester Abortion (Infanticide)
--The Green New Deal (Militant environmentalism).
--Universal Basic Income (free money for doing nothing)
--70% fed'l tax rates (and higher) to punish success.
--Reparations for Slavery
--Open Borders
--Drug Legalization
--Sanctuary Cities
--Anti Law Enforcement
--Anti Military
--Anti-First Amendment
--Anti-Second Amendment
--Anti-capitalist everything
--Anti God
But don't expect Liberals to change their beliefs just to attract minority votes. They are convinced they are right about everything--and will ride their fool-hardy policies into the dirt. Let them do it.
7
70% of Hispanic citizens disagree with unchecked illegal immigration.
Democrats may have put the pandering cart before the pandering horse.
6
Any race that votes 90-10 or 80-20 for the Democrats has been brain washed by the left for decades to believe the Republicans are evil people who hate them because of their race. Of course that isn't true, but since when has the truth mattered to the Democrat party as a whole. The Democrats must villainize their opponents calling each and every one of racists or whatever else they thing might get their target audience to vote Democrat regardless of the truth. The Democrats must do this because they do not have realistic policies that will be good for all Americans. What they have is a policy of "free stuff" and open borders which creates class and racial conflicts but does get them some wins as long as the people you are taking the money from is a smaller group of voters than the people who are receiving the "Free Stuff". It is simple mathematics or arithmetic. And, that everyone who is not a Democrat is a racist is part of the Democrats culture. They actually call every opponent a racist and have been doing it for decades. Check it out.
3
The Times prides itself on the ideal that every opinion matters and then runs a headline that questions why Hispanics are not voting en block.
Because, just like the rest of humanity, Hispanics cover the spectrum of politics.
Your headline is tone deaf, listen; "Why Aren't New York Times employees voting 80-20 or 90-10 Republican?"
4
It would be cosmic justice if Democrats in their attempt to win more votes by importing millions of illegal immigrants end up with a demographic that votes Republican.
6
“Pew found that in the Texas Senate race, Latinos backed Democrat Beto O’Rourke over Ted Cruz by nearly two to one, 64-35”
Rafael Edward Cruz lost the Latino vote, in Texas, to a Democrat named Alberto O’Rourke. Who says assimilation isn’t possible?
Brown people are suspicious of your polling places. Voting should be in private, at home, and anytime...for a week.
You present as real, fake democracies like the US, that make it hard to even vote. The 4th estate is complicit in the system we have, you all are cheerleaders for the fake democracy of America.
Many Hispanics came to America to get out of the terrible countries they were born in, Socialist/Communist countries. And they came to America legally, often paying thousands of dollars to do so.
So they are not happy when they see people coming illegally into America. And they do not want America to become a Socialist country, like Bernie and AOC dream of.
And so they support Trump.
Plus many Hispanics are conservative religious people and they do no support the radical democrats in many issues such as gay marriage, gender, abortion etc
6
Why? Because Latinx's are pretty conservative culturally, while they are also socialist economically at the same time. The White folks that run the Democratic party can't understand that. So, we hear the common lament, "Why are/aren't they voting against/for their own interests?" Which is a victim-blaming white-savior way of saying, "Why won't those People of Color do what I want them and let me help them?"
It's not the info-consumer's job to assimilate the message. It's the communicator's job to know their audience. If Latinx's and African-Americans are not getting the message that the Democratic party is working in their interests, it's not because POC aren't understanding the message. It's the messenger's problem. Democrats, maybe you aren't actually working in their best interest? (gasp, Whaaaaa?) And if you think you are, maybe it's time to spend money on better marketing. (Pssst, Do you want on example of marketing that works? Go check out this channel called Fox News. There's an article about it in today's paper.)
33
@Aaron B it also easier to scare groups, pander to their victimhood and offer a quick, easy fix like fox. Murdoch has spent a fortune on message development and delivery to create his propaganda machine something Nixon and Reagan didn't really have. Expect more and worse Trumps.
2
Nelson's campaign is a reflection that the Latino vote is taken for granted by Dems. Clinton had a very liberal immigration platform but the turnout was very disappointing. Which was an across the board problem for Clinton in critical states that cost her electoral college. Trump is riding the good economy. Obviously the news from 2018 was not good for Trump. Turn out is going to be extremely important in 2020. The economy won't be as good come next year for Trump.
1
Generalizing the Hispanic vote as one block it only shows how little people know about Hispanics in this country or how little people know about Latin America in the first place.
77
@DREU Yes. Latin America is diverse and large. It is also variously governed by corrupt politicians and flooded with tabloid entertainment. People get cynical after a few hundred years of that.
3
@DREU
Totally agree.
@mary bardmess
That sounds like DC, Mary!
1
Tribe/ethnicity, religion and neighbirhood rank way above anything else in deciding votes. Given voting patterns hispanics are Mexican American or Guatemalan Americans first, members of their local community second, Christians third and for two thirds not yet fully part of the broader American politic.
Their communities tend to be conservative and Christian. This makes them likely members of the republican party. Abortion tughts, women rights, gay rights are not the stuff of hispanic culture.
Their confidence in American justice is understandably uncertain. Their place in America society openly in question. Are they part of America or forever outsiders as many republicans see them? This pushes them away from republicans
What do democrats offer them? Mire welfare? That’s not why they came. Better safety and justice? In what democratic city do they find that? Opportunity? Like blacks to a permanent underclass?
Free of Trump, republicans should easily win 50% of hispanic votes. Just quiet the idiots at the extreme of the party. It’s the party of hard work, of Christian values, of jobs and keeping your hard earned money. At minimum it is aspirational. The real question is why does the republican party not dominate the hispanic vote—at least outside the coastal democratic strongholds
6
machismo
3
Hispanics vote the abortion question...
2
A number of comments have focused on cultural conservatism among diverse hispanic communities. Issues such as abortion, gay rights, and support for undocumented immigrants sway hispanic voters to the Republican Party. With this in mind, I wonder: What is the abortion rate in hispanic communities? Is it significantly different that in other groups? Also, is the proportion of gays that different from in other communities? And don't many hispanics born in the US have relatives and friends who are undocumented? All that said, perhaps the Catholicism of hispanics is crucial. But, surely, there are differences in how that affects individuals in terms of voting.
3
This article implies that it is only bad Democratic strategy and outreach that limited the potential of the Hispanic vote. Increasing the Hispanic vote was a key part of the Clinton strategy to abandon labor and the white working class and make up the difference with more Hispanic immigrants. But that assumes that Hispanics will vote to reward the party that favors open borders. In fact, as Edsall notes, Hispanics are not enthusiastic about admitting large numbers of immigrants who, as Harvard economist Borjes has shown, cost African American and Hispanic citizens more than others competing with them for jobs. That's why Cesar Chavez, who tried heroically to organize Hispanic agricultural workers, strongly favored more curbs on immigration. Large scale immigration clearly hurts labor. Listen to Ira Glass's podcast revealing how illegal immigrants destroyed labor unions in the southern poultry industry. Hispanics are also mostly Catholic. Why would they favor a party whose main issue is loosening restrictions on abortion? In short, the Democratic elites' strategy of abandoning the working class and going only after college graduates, assuming identity groups would make no strong policy demands, may be mistaken. Trump, despite his hideous personality, has shown concern for workers, tried to get back the industry NAFTA and other trade agreements killed off in many parts of the country, and opposed abortion. And however unwise, his economic policies have created jobs.
4
Voting Latino here--with a family split on the political spectrum, though we hold more in the middle. Back in the day, when our ties to the US were very fresh we were looking pretty favorably at Bush senior but disappointed and have gone left. Now I'm wondering if I'm more independent than Democrat as I'm not jiving with the current output of the party. Though I do appreciate the new freshman class that is more diverse I'm finding myself questioning some of their current output while praising their passion and efforts, there's a misalignment that I'm still figuring out. Also--as Trump has pushed the immigration issue to the forefront, after its been kicked around for decades--don't assume that lenient stances toward immigration (illegal or legal, documented or undocumented) is the selling ticket for Latino voters. That issue is particularly grating and I'm not happy with Democratic response thus far.
10
As many commenters have said, treating “Hispanic voters” as a monolithic voting group is absurd. But, likewise, treatment of Asian, Black, white as monolithic voting groups is absurd as well.
We all want to live in a country where our hard work is valued, justice is fairly dispatched, the system isn’t rigged, effort is made to care for the earth, economic opportunity exists and we all don’t live is fear of losing a place to live or life savings when we face illness. With laser focus on these things————- and those things alone, Democrats would have most of us, of all groups. Easily.
Democrats cannot seem to stop themselves from perpetually whining about other stuff. No doubt there are many exceptions but I will note one thing regarding the disparate Hispanic individuals in my life: None are whiners. Could that be your answer to the headline?
10
Thomas, would you please be more concise and shorten your columns to the length of the others in Opinion. Also please remove all the quotes and paraphrase them for us. Thank You.
1
@jimkelly107
Please do NOT do that.
I hate it when the Times paraphrases; it's difficult to do under the best of circumstances, and I sure don't trust the Times to do it fairly.
Edsall, as he is, is one of the remaining bastions of credibility.
A lot of comments here point out that the Hispanic community is economically, geographically and politically diverse, and rightly so. However, the president and his enthusiastically bigoted base are completely blind to your diversity. Whether you are a rich conservative member of the Hispanic community or a lower middle class liberal member of the Hispanic community, all the MAGA crowd sees is criminals, foreigners, enemies. For all their faults, no elected official in the Democratic party would ever stand for, let alone encourage, that kind of hatred from their voters.
2
I know a few Hispanic Trump voters... they are macho guys who would take it as an insult to be compared to African American voters. Handle with care; I do not think they are natural allies of the Democrats. In America 2032 they may be the new pickup-driving Trump types.
2
I think a good start to understanding the Hispanic vote is to realize that while you call us Hispanics we refer to each other as Puerto Rican, Mexican, Venezuelan, Bolivian, Argentinian, Cuban, Dominican, Guatemalan, Salvadorian, Costa Rican, Nicaraguan, Colombian, Peruvian, Ecuadorian, Chilean, Uruguayan, Paraguayan, Honduran and Panamanian. Stop assuming that we all have the same ideas just because we speak Spanish, or because our parents or grandparents spoke Spanish. Each Latino group has dealt with different levels of oppression. I don't know, don't treat us like a token vote and put your money where your mouth is.
7
People are fundamentally ignorant. They will vote for a man who doesn’t even consider them real Americans over someone who would help them, or at least try to. All because of some perceived litmus issue. Hate and fear always win in America. That’s why we have hungry children and teachers begging for funding while the military is flush (and not the other way around).
2
Perhaps the category 'Hispanics' isn't really all that useful or insightful. Are people supposed to all the think alike because they (or their parents or their grandparents) speak Spanish?
4
Here’s a shocking thought. Some Hispanics like Trump, especially the ones who emigrated legally to the US. A majority of Hispanics are Catholic too; perhaps they reject the Democrats death by abortion culture. It seems shockingly ignorant and naive to assume that the default Hispanic party affiliation would naturally be Democrat.
6
My understanding is that many Hispanics have conservative values. Of course, they will vote for a Democrat who ignores his other constituents and calls for open borders. It's too bad Democrats gave up on working-class Americans. Despicable, really.
5
I can't see much reason for Hispanics to vote for the Dems. They Dems are pretty much anti-family, anti-religion. and anti-tradition. All of which matter a great deal to Hispanics.
7
Part of the reason the Democrats don't own Hispanic voters the way they do black voters is immigration. Hispanics who vote are citizens who came here legally and resent the line jumpers. Many of them are entrepreneurs who feel the burden of taxes. And many others are culturally conservative and are put off by the pro-abortion extremism of the Democrats.
There are other issues, of course, but this gives you a starting point.
9
Perhaps Hispanics do not approve of open boarders, identity focused politics/flexible gender identity, late (or any) term abortion, attacks against entrepreneurs, religion, on I could go on. Democrats figure they can buy the Hispanic Black vote cheap with a smile a nod and a condescending pat. Perhaps they are wrong.
6
Why aren't dems winning Hispanics in a walk?
Because despite all the models, microsampling, microtargeting, blah blah blah political parties continue to neglect the fact that individual voters are individuals.
Many of the Hispanics I know are single issue, anti-abortion Catholics who vote on that one topic. End of story with them.
3
Why? Because even among this group of largely uneducated people there are enough who possess common sense and intelligence and know the Democrat agenda is not the America they left their countries for.
6
It's very simple, the majority-minority demographic meme is a myth. The D party has banked its future on an essentially anti-white or at least anti-white men platform. Hispanics aren't buying it. They are more interested in emulating the Jewish- american experience than the Black-american experience. Hispanics are entrepreneurial, religious and family oriented. These are basically conservative impulses. D's only want to stress Identity.
7
Voter suppression. Reds and Republicans have killed the US voting system. Mainstream Dems are unwilling to do anything about it.
1
Interesting. An analysis of voting patterns of a largely Catholic group, without a single mention of abortion. I suppose the thinking is, it's a non-issue. Good luck with that.
5
Most hispanics are Catholic and are natural conservatives. The racial policies of trump and the republicans are the only thing driving them to the democrats.
2
Everyone scratches their head like this is the conundrum of the century. ...los hispanohablantes came here to escape their countries. We escape countries to also escape the people of those countries. Why would we presume Hispanics would be supportive of other Hispanics? They went through a desperate immigration Odyssey to get here, to get away from their countries' corruption. They are in direct competition for service jobs with other Hispanics. It makes 💯 percent perfect sense that Hispanics would not be quick to shun a racist prez who keeps immigration opportunity tight. Also, as much as we want to glorify our hard working Spanish speaking immigrants, not every Hispanic is a hard working maid, landscaper or painter. Like ANY demographic, there are also criminals, terrorists, rapists and gangsters wreaking havoc with community cohesion causing political divides in which Hispanics have legit reason to vote against themselves or against more of themselves entering and working in the US. Maybe as NY times readers we need to scratch the surface of comfortable stereotypes 'Jose the yard dude' and 'Esmerelda the cleaning lady' and realize that Hispanics know other Hispanics better than Democrats think they do. Look a bit deeper and stop viewing all Hispanics as happy go lucky hard working laborers. That is just not the case and THEY know it even if white analysts are clueless through positive prejudice.
1
The Democratic base in the rich Northern suburbs want open borders to keep wages down and profits (the stock market) up. Illegal immigration first of all affects the wages of poor and lower income, and illegal immigration of Latinos who move into Latino areas affects Latinos most of all.
That the Democrats are emphasizing the illegal immigration of poorly educated Central Americans who pretend to be fleeing violence is especially annoying.
Finally, of course, approval rates among "Latinos" are different than among citizens and especially likely voters
1
In the case of Gillum in Florida, were Hispanics thinking, and/or being encouraged to think, that under a black governor they would become the less favored minority group? That under DeSantis they would at least still be ahead of blacks in the political pecking order?
Shocker! Hispanics don't want those "other" people getting their benefits or tax dollars. Like many people they struggle to pay their bills and want to keep as much as they can. They don't think past their nose to see that corporations and the wealthy have rigged the system and so they vote their fears.
I guess that means they are human and in a Scarlett O'Hara way - they are only thinking about today.
2
sadly, abortion. usually catholic or pentecostal. ridiculously over-rides all good sense.
1
One can ask the question why do Africa-Americans not vote 100% against Republicanism/Trumpism? Or any other racial group? Or women? Or the bipedal? The simple fact is that with any large enough group you will always have a sizeable minority who are xenophobic, fearful, ignorant, or just plain stupid and that's not fixable. The proper question is how we return to having that John Bircher 10-20% fringe across all slices of America that we've always had but is now somehow in charge. Shaming ignorance, intolerance, and stupidity instead of exalting it seems like a good start.
2
Dear Mr Edsall, please make your point quickly and simply, if you have a point to make at all.
1
A better piece would be titled, "Why Should the Democrats Expect 80% of Latino Votes?"
6
The "Democratic" Party is a failure and becoming defunct. All it does is sniffle and whimper about trump and his henchmen. In the process, its "candidates" carp on each other's heads, doing the republican job for them. The Party is a joke.
3
1. Hispanics are overwhelmingly Catholic. The Catholic church is against abortion.
2 Hispanics from South America come to the US to escape socialism, not vote for it
Hispanics will always be split between the 2 parties
3
Democrats lose Hispanics on social issues. Abortion, gay rights, transgenderism, anti-Catholism, anti-marriage, and anti-male are not as popular among Hispanics as they are amongst Northeast Liberals.
3
The Fact that you can ask that, and never mention the word RELIGION in your whole article, should tell you all you need to know, and that is you do not know any real Hispanics.
Hispanics, like most immigrants are much more religious than Born Americans.
Abortion, the constant mocking of religion, especially Catholism, Kamila Harris offensive questioning of whether someone who is Catholic can serve on the Supreme Court comes to mind.
Once again, the MSM and NYT in particular show they have no idea what America looks and thinks like, outside the beltway.
4
Isn't it great that you can't reduce a multi ethnic, multi national, multi cultural grouping of tens of millions of people into a single predictable voting bloc.
At some point, the professional ideologues of the democratic party will realize that demographics is a political strategy with diminishing returns. In consequence, somewhat similar to the republican dependency on evangelicals and neo con nationalists.
Most people are more complicated than pundits want them to be.
4
Is there any chance that conservative attitudes about race and gender may be a factor? In my experience, recent immigrants and their children seem to retain a lot of “old country” attitudes that may not predispose them to the Democrats’ progressive agenda, particularly as regards race and gender issues.
5
I have rarely heard of a straightforward discussion about Latino or African-American participation. The last time I recall thinking "that was an honest summing up of the situation" was after the 2008 Prop. 8 vote in California. For the most part, the gay community supported efforts to make life better for these two groups... Then Prop. 8 happened.
The reality is that there are many Latinos who put the Catholic Church first. In many cases, they go for policies that hurt women and gay people over anything else. There's a major lack of support for education in the Latino community that's also a problem when it comes to electing people who will make positive changes.
For now, there are Democrats who express support for immigration, hoping to pick up a few votes. But no one tries too hard because when it comes down to it, there's no guarantee that the community will support the Democrats. Many care more about gay marriage and abortion than about immigration.
The insinuation here is that all Latino voters have to think alike about politics, or the President. If that's what Mr. Edsall and the Democrats think, then they are wrong, and guilty of the same kind of ethnic disrespect that they like to accuse the Republicans of.
43
@David Godinez
Bingo.
Latinos like everyone else recognize that illegal immigration is a disaster.
Poor and working class latinos especially are devastated by this scourge:
- their kids are forced to attend third world quality schools where 80% of the kids are failing;
- their communities and their neighbors are menaced by illegal immigrant thugs who are protected from deportation by opportunistic pols' surreal, utterly foolish, Orwellian-named "sanctuary" policy;
- their local hospitals and ERs are closing because they're swamped by the cost of caring for illegals who can't pay;
- worst of all, law-abiding LEGAL IMMIGRANTS are smeared and punished by association with those who jumped the queue and took advantage of our nation's openness and generosity.
Trump, buffoon that he is, had it exactly right in his SOTU speech. Illegal immigration is devastating to this nation's working classes.
It is a cynical and disgusting boon to wealthy and selfish virtue-signaling elites.
End illegal immigration, now.
10
@David Godinez
The thought underlying this is essentially neo-Marxist, that everyone is reducible to their social classification, that individuality is a dangerous illusion.
3
Any Hispanic reading this piece should find enough reasons to turn completely away from the Democrats. The unstated assumption, and it is patronizing and insulting, is that Hispanics are helpless and therefore, must need the benevolent hand of the Democratic Party.
5
The Democratic party earned the African American vote with its support for civil rights 50 years ago, and their continued support for affirmative action and voting rights protections. Whether that is enough as the civil rights generation dies off is a good question. What would happen if the Republican party decided that being quite so obviously racist was a political negative, rather than the positive it is seen to be now?
.
Hispanics have no similar history of the civil rights movement. They are not as organized politically. Some have been American citizens for generations, and have political views little different from other white Americans. It is not far-fetched to imagine that a Republican party not led by Trump could in fact make substantial gains in the Hispanic vote. The Hispanic community remains mostly Catholic and more opposed to abortion that America as a whole. Many Hispanics (most of whom immigrated legally) are deeply opposed to illegal immigration.
.
Democrats should be careful with their assumptions. Many Dems take for granted that the half of the country who vote Republican are all racist misogynists, because they believe everything they read from NYT's columnists. Those Americans who live outside the bubble realize that most Republicans simply have little faith in government, and would prefer less government and lower taxes. Some Hispanics agree.
5
@Tom Meadowcroft
Although its true that Democrats finally embraced civil rights for blacks about years ago, the GOP has supported civil rights for blacks since the party started over 150 years ago.
@Joe Public
With regards to rights for African Americans, it would be fair to say that Republicans had a super strong 1860s, faded in the 1870s, and have largely avoided the topic since. I'm afraid "The Democrats used to be worse than us 50 years ago" isn't much of a rallying cry.
Let me suggest a few reasons why Democrats won't receive 90% of the Hispanic vote. Many Hispanics are quite conservative and find Democrat positions on late-term abortion extreme and also don't consider Democrat's obsession with Trans rights a high priority. Hispanics are not monolithic. Many - usually of Mexican descent - have been here for centuries and don't automatically embrace our Southern border being overwhelmed by migrants from Central America. Many Hispanics are doing well financially under Trump and are suspect of the ideas put forward by the likes of Bernie Sanders. Democrats often speak of "marginalized" people but Hispanics know that in the Democrat hierarchy of marginalization they seem to fall below African-Americans and the LBGTQ community. Democrats are sadly mistaken if they think that Hispanics, Asians, African-Americans, and others all have identical interests that will forever wed them to the Democrat Party because, frankly, they don't.
7
Just because a group of people share the same language and come from one (vast) region of the world does not mean they do (or should) think and vote the same way; to think that they either do or "should" is asinine. Latin America is diverse in many different ways: racially, economically, culturally, linguistically, socially, etc. Of course Hispanic immigrants (and their children) are not going to vote in one bloc. Sure, Democrats might have a majority of the Hispanic vote, but that does not mean they will get all of it, or even close.
I for one hope that no one party gets a stranglehold on the Latin vote; diversity of thought is a beautiful thing. What we should be asking is this: How do we improve our voter-turnout rate among all demographics?
4
It is largely because hispanics are not one giant voting bloc. The ever growing 2nd and 3rd generation Americans are not going to share the same views as those who are new citizens, immigrant, or who have families here illegally.
Democrats more often than not when talking about hispanics almost always focus on immigration and racism, but that only caters who would be affected really.
Identity politics may have been largely counterproductive with attracting socially conservative hispanics. Religion may play a part in domestic views, but whatever the reason most hispanics grow up in a more socially traditional household where LGBT issues are not talked about openly and traditional gender roles are reinforced. This is the same culture which celebrates a girl’s 15th birthday by getting made up in a huge dress and looking pretty and tells boys to be strong defenders.
Personally, myself and my other hispanic friends could care less about immigration. There is no fear of getting deported for myself or anyone I know. It is more offensive when someone talks about those coveted housekeeping and landscaping jobs being left empty if hispanics are kept out than any talk about the wall. I don’t speak Spanish so when I see debates translated I honestly roll my eyes along with the whites, asians, blacks, etc. who don’t.
Maybe start talking about jobs, wage inequality, disproportionate taxes, and healthcare costs. Boring topics I know, but those are the ones that affect everyone.
5
The reason Democrats are not winning more of the Hispanic vote is because most Mexicans if not all are Christians. I realize that most disagree with this observation but most Mexican employ what could be referred to as Christian values like hard work and large heterosexual families. Values that the Democrats as a whole do not share. Democrats want Universal Income, gay marriage and too much welfare is "just enough" for them. We are lucky that Mexico's religious tendencies are Christian- it could be much worse.
Polls fail to differentiate between newly arrived Hispanics and those who have a long family history of North American residence. Treating all Hispanics the same misseses some important distinctions between the two. I would wager that the voters whose families predated the formation of the United State and into the early 20th century vote very similarly to their Anglo neighbors. They do not appreciate being lumped together with the immigrant Latinos and referred to a "Mexicans."
1
Your findings show how foolish it is to take any given group (i.e. Latinos, a fairly diversified and heterogeneous one, really) for granted, and without activists working their aims at community level, and at times forgetting entire sections of any given state (remember Hillary's no-show in mid-western states she could have won with ease...had she made the effort to engage?). You have to show passion in presenting ideas the people could fall in love with, and feel compelled to participate, and contribute with their vote. Whosoever claims sanity by voting again for vulgar, and hateful, Trump, ought to reconsider.
1
Except when it comes time to vote, Democrats generally ignore the Hispanic population. Take, for example, the mainstream media, arguably dominated by the left. How many Hispanics (by the way, “Hispanics” hate that designation) can you name among mainstream broadcasters, TV personalities, commentators, reporters, late night comedians, actors, etc? How many TV shows dominated by Hispanics, as there are Asian and African Americans? Hispanics are virtually invisible in a medium controlled by the left. It’s as if we don’t exist. Except when it’s election time.
I make this observation as a Mexican-American woman who has been waiting almost 60 years to see someone like myself on my TV screen.
2
I am from Texas, and though I love my inumerable cousins, I am so glad I left. Simply put, the republicans have brain washed the Mexican Americans. Like Obama said, it's the guns and bibles, and add anti-choice.
Some of the younger generations are starting to think for themselves and recognize that the republicans are against our interests, but it is a slow slow process.
1
Some data might be helpful for context here. Census suggests that there are about 50 million Hispanics in the US.
MIT/Yale study last year suggested true number of illegal aliens, overwhelmingly Hispanic, is 22 million. A lot of the remaining 28 million is kids who cannot vote.
So even if the Democrat party "Abolish Ice" crowd panders to get a 90-10 split of Hispanics, how many votes will it get? How many of those would be in swing states the party lost in 2016 (PA, OH, MI, WI) or could lose in 2020 (MN). And how many will it lose from those policies from among the voters among the other 250 million Americans?
Welcome to Trump's second term!
Latinos likely are more connected to their Catholicism than the average white American and this religion holds contempt for gay people. The democratic party joyfully identifies itself as the party of gays, the transgender, shared bathrooms and so forth. This family values issue could be one explanation for soft support.
Another possibility could be that Latinos like many Americans see no useful purpose in the country absorbing more people from anywhere whether they be from Mexico or Syria. Job loss and wage suppression are bread and butter concerns for much of the workforce and may outweigh loyalty to country of origin.
As horrible as Trump is, his phony alliance with the workers of America has gained traction in communities of all colors.
1
Legal immigrants and otherwise from Central America, for instance, didn't leave in order to travel to a "Little Nicaragua" that let's the people they left come uninhibited. They came to live in America and want their prosperity protected.
Another insulting article about Hispanics. Do all white voters vote ONE WAY? Hispanics are as diverse as any other group and have different views on a range of issues like size of government, taxes, abortion , same sex marriage etc. If some did not buy into identity politics, I think Hispanics would vote Republican 80-20 , because Republican views align more with our values.
2
As a Hispanic, this is such an easy question to answer. There are white hispanics and non white hispanics. The white hispanics while culturally hispanic move easily within their cultural world to the non hispanic white world and back again. They have every reason to support the white establishment and the power it projects. While some may move to dismantle it to assuage their own political leanings and/or to demonstrate solidarity with their non white compatriots, a very significant portion of that group will always work to preserve it. How do i know this? I have substantial portions of both groups in my extended family. Guess which ones are trump supporters.
4
There’s this misconception that Latinos are mostly concerned with immigration and favor more lenient immigration laws and enforcement. In addition to lumping communities with different backgrounds like Cubans, Puerto Ricans and Mexicans. It’s not a homogenous population regardless of what some Americans may think.
11
Also lumping different races, social, economic and educational levels. I ask you are all "white" people the same just because they speak English.
The underlying problem, that I do not see addressed here, is the Catholic Church and its position on abortion. The Republicans have capitalized on this since 1973, winning large percentages of the Catholic vote.
As a Catholic, I have been at odds with the Church's priorities. Instead of preaching the values of Matthew's Gospel (Blessed are the Poor), they hold fast to a 12th Century doctrine that actually punishes the poor and keeps the disadvantaged marginalized.
Until the Catholic Church shifts its priorities and rhetoric the Democrats will not gain 90%+ of the Hispanic vote.
However, with Beto O'Rourke or Julian Castro on the ticket (as VP) Florida and Texas turn blue.
4
@Miller In other words, you want the Catholic Church to stop being Catholic?
To anyone asking why all Latinos don't vote exactly the same, I would ask: Do you know anything at all about Latin America? Virtually every country on the continent is as sharply divided between left and right as the US is.
Latinos are American citizens with roots in Latin America; they come from many walks of life, belong to the full range of social classes in the US, and would be pigeonholed into many different "racial" categories in their familial home countries. They are not a "race," except in the flawed US perspective on that flawed concept. The fact that they are divided between left and right is no mystery. (The determination of the modern Republican Party to reject Latinos, on the other hand, truly is puzzling.)
10
@David F. Thank you. Latinos are not a single monolithic group of voters. Geesh!
Young people and members of minority groups often have very real life problems that inhibit voting, even if they really want to vote.
My college student kids had to register to vote either in their university town or where they grew up with me. It was often the wrong place at election time, such as an election during the school year but during a vacation, and a summer primary followed by a fall general election.
The workers on the margin are the ones who don't get time off to vote, and have transportation issues. Poorer families have similar problems for those at home to watch the kids -- they're just not free to take off an hour or two to vote.
These real world problems are not going to change. No amount of wishing will get the turnout rate up, so long as the basic life issues remain.
Also, identity politics frequently lumps together people who do not see themselves that way. The politics of Puerto Rico are not the politics of Cuban expats, nor of their children who grew up here. Thus, "Hispanic" may not be a real voter bloc in the same way as African Americans.
No amount of get out the vote will make them over into people they are not; they may not lean Republican as a group, but they won't be monolithic for Democrats either.
5
Most Latinos I know are extremely hard working and conservative. I’m confused why Democrats think that because they go up to bat constantly for illegal immigrants that that somehow would translate to more Latino voters who have either been here for generations or immigrated here legally.
I am the son of a first generation immigrant from Pakistan (my father). He doesn’t agree with anything the Democrats have put forward regarding the problem of illegal immigration. He is resentful that people should easily gain entrance and benefits when people like him came here the right way and worked hard and never took any sort of handout.
It’s the same for Latinos. They came here the right way and worked hard. The only thing they have in common with the people in these ridiculous caravans is a common language.
24
Why? Because some of us are actually white people. I don't say that to be facetious. Some of us are mixed race, but an important segment of the Latino population traces its roots to Europe, not just Spain, but many other countries in Europe, and identify with white privilege and that's where the Republican Party excels, appealing to fear and disdain. I mean, yes, there are Cubans and Venezuelans who fled socialist "paradises" and are never going to vote for Bernie Sanders and any other Socialist candidate, and who can blame them? Living in the U.S., we forget the complexity of colonialism in Latin America and that some Latinos don't like to be identified as non-white minorities. It's true of my family and I often wonder if some Democratic politicians are completely oblivious of the idea of campaigning on the merit of issues not just expecting a block of voters to side with them automatically. I was unpleasantly surprised when George W. Bush proved more adept at campaigning in the Latino community than John Kerry. Let's learn our lessons, please. Many of us may literally not survive a second Trump administration, on the basis of health care alone.
18
@GReyes - What is interesting is that while there is a rather strict set of racial gradations in South America, from the brown people at the bottom to the pure Europeans at the top, here in the US things are much more fluid. Nobody checks your DNA if you want to consider yourself 'white', which mostly means not claiming to be an oppressed minority. The chief criteria are to be educated and have a professional job, then you're in.
@GReyes I was just rehearsing this substitute headline:
'Why aren't Republicans Winning the White Vote 80-20 or 90-10?'
puts it in perspective as silly.
Values do not accrue to skin colour or ethnicity, at least not until/unless their is catastrophic testing (earthquake/war/Great Depression) those things tend to be class levellers to an extent
I remember being shocked when one person of colour was discriminating against another person of a different ethnicity/colour at my workplace at a law firm in Hong Kong. Young and stupid, I thought there would not be racism based on colour, because I was raised in Canada. It was rampant. But the colour of money fixes everything.
2
The issue is that the Democrats imagine that all Hispanics care about is immigration and that they *must* all be for extremely liberal immigration policy and for general high tolerance of illegal immigration.
This is completely inane, analogous to assuming that all black people must by default be very concerned about Haitian immigrants because Haitian immigrants tend to be black.
Most people are much more concerned about their own affairs here than they are about the plight of a bunch of people they don't know trying to immigrate. And like everybody else, they are concerned about how that immigration will impact their schools, their taxes, and their neighborhoods.
If nothing else, even if they do sympathize with immigrants and are generally liberal on immigration, it in no way implies it's a top five priority for them and thus it's probably a poor basis on which to mobilize them, especially if you are trying to achieve rates of 90% mobilization or whatever.
19
There is a hierarchy among minorities too. I have seen and heard the disdain for African-Americans that exists among many Asian-American people and am not surprised that it exists in Latinos too.
And vice versa - I have heard African-Americans complain about the large illegal migration and the signs in Spanish that are present in many areas with large Latino populations.
Both Democrat and Republican policies support corrupt, undemocratic, politicians in Central America. This has created the violence and hopelessness in those countries that has driven the mass migration we see now. Democrats will have to tackle this issue though it is very thorny and will take more time to resolve than the time available till the next election.
So for 2020, Democrats cannot assume that all minorities will support them simply because the Republican Party is unwelcoming of them. Don't repeat Hillary's mistake of taking the base for granted.
6
@Meenal Mamdani - Of course blacks don't like it, because employers would much rather hire illegal immigrants. Blacks would demand decent pay and working conditions, so employers don't want them.
1
My answers based on living in a predominantly Hispanic neighborhood in Houston, Texas: religion, abortion, a stronger connection to Mexico than the US and discrimination against them is just not that strong here anymore.
1
Most Hispanics believe in hard work and self sufficiency.
This makes them more in line with Republicans.
Lots of them want to work hard and move out into the suburbs where it is safer and the schools are better.
Democrats want to keep minorities in the big cities, riding buses and trains.
Latinos love pickup trucks and SUV's !!!
Many of them are offended by the minority box Democrats put them in.
22
@Joe Paper So I guess they enjoy the GOP insulting their relatives?
Not all of them are gang members or "bad hombres."
1
@Joe Paper Haha, your comment was so funny, but it's true.
There's that saying that Republicans are evil and Democrats are stupid.
Do Democratic politicians--or op ed writers--even read the comments to articles like this?
As some sit scratching their heads and saying they're mystified why all Latinos don't vote Democrat, there is comment after comment on the subject--many from Latinos.
It's one thing to search for answers. It's quite another to have your question answered over and over and claim to be in the dark.
It seems to me it's not a lack of answers. but a lack of answers they like. And I say that as a Democrat.
12
Because old white guys like this author keep lumping all Hispanics and Latino's into a single demographic group.
If he is indeed an old white man..he should be a Republican, right?
That's what the 'demographics' say..but he works for the NYT, so how can that be true?
Fact is you have those Latino and Hispanic immigrants who came here legally who cringe at the open-border rhetoric of Democrats today. They are tired of having to answer that they're US Citizens and came here following a legal process when two dozen others around them are here illegally having cut in line. It ruins their American experience and if Democrats are not going to help them..then they will join up with conservatives and Republicans.
Second fact is that Cuban, Mexican and South American's all have different ideologies. Judging someone by their skin color or race...Mr. Edsall...is RACISM.
The only people politicians work overtime to please are those who don't fit in a neat nice little bucket of demographics/politics.
It's why Black Americans are ignored until election season and Caribbean and African Americas are recruited non-stop. The latter don't have ideologies that fit neatly into either party..so the politicians have to work to please them to win their votes.
Church going Catholics from Mexico who believe in strong work ethic and family values and are pro life don't cotton too well to be lectured to about supporting 24/7 on demand abortion.
Old white men? Which party do you belong to?
11
You have to ask why?
IMMIGRATION and the Dems response to it and them.
Legal immigrants are not too fond of line jumpers and law breakers and you libs still need to ponder this question.
20
Because most Hispanics are Republicans, or closet Republicans, go down to Miami and see how many Cuban voters are Democrats, not many ....
9
Classic NYT. Labeling Trump as racist. Nope, its about law and order which you rewrite as anti-Latino or racist. Many Latino Americans fled banana republics with no respect for the individual, no law and order and most times socialist/communist...Venezuela, Cuba, etc etc. The leftist/socialist policies of the Democrats frighten many Latino voters as they should.
I am a Trump policy supporter who believes we should allow as much lawful immigration as possible..especially from Latino nations. Successful immigration and integration ensures future migrants will have an opportunity to succeed when they arrive on our shores.
10
Latino or, better, Latinx. Please!
Probably the biggest reason Latinos aren't falling all over themselves to vote Democrat is because the Dems sound increasingly like the type of leaders theyre fleeing for a better life.
Sounding more and more like some socialist dictator doesnt win votes.
16
Because honestly they belong in the Republican party, it fits their hardworking, take no handouts, catholic society. But Trump is so racist they begrudgingly vote for Democrats.
4
Three reasons:
1. Legal Latino immigrants are an extremely hard-working and tax-paying group who assimilate within one generation. As such, they don't relate or buy into the "victim" policies that the Democratic Party seems to rely on for votes. When you see these people doing the jobs most Americans do not want 24/7/365, you understand the work ethic that this group has and the opportunities they wish to take advantage of. These people work like hell in hellish jobs. They are not excuse-makers, but doers.
2. Identity politics makes little sense to such a diverse group from a multitude of countries
3. Traditionally from conservative and religious culture
These 3 reasons lean Republican from the get go.
13
I was told by a teacher with many Hispanic students here in very red Southwest Florida that the biggest obstacle Democrats face with Hispanic voters is abortion. Her students believe (and are told every Sunday in church) that abortion is immoral and a sin regardless of the circumstances. According to her, it is one of the most important issues to her students, and by extension, their parents, and for them, being "pro-choice" is a deal breaker, regardless of anything else. I don't know how Democrats address this, but I suspect it is a significant obstacle to increasing the Democratic Hispanic vote, at least here in Florida. By the way, Bill Nelson ran an absolutely terrible, lackluster campaign all around. He had no profile as a Senator (unlike Rubio), was unable to cite any legislative achievements despite many years in the Senate, and thought a winning strategy was to spend much of the campaign telling voters he was an astronaut before many of them were born. No surprise he lost. The surprise was that he lost by such a small margin.
5
There are a few positions in the Democratic party that a subset of Hispanic voters strongly disagree with. Among the religious block, abortion and LBGTQIA issues mostly like top the list. Pres. Trump might disgust them ('judge not lest you be judged') but they may see him as a lesser of two evils - with the least of three evils, not voting, might seem a good choice.
I agree though that Hispanic or Latino as a group is that might vote or decide as a group, is a little like wondering why all Scandinavian-Americans don't vote the same way.
4
Basically, Democrats have no clear understanding of the political leanings of the hispanic community. They see what they want to see in the Latino community and ignore what is staring them in the face. It's their delusion that a radical leftist like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez actually represents the beliefs of the hispanic community, just as it's their delusion that Latinos are fundamentally liberal.
Hispanic communities, especially those advancing into the middle class are some of the most fertile grounds in America for conservatives (Republicans seem to miss that point too, although people like DeSantis clearly got it). They are highly religious, highly family-oriented, hardworking, and socially conservative. They are the most recent Americans who selected America because they understood they could get ahead here by working hard. It's delusionary to believe that people like this are naturally inclined to support the current Democratic agenda. Remember that in 2008 the California gay marriage referendum was easily defeated on the strength of hispanic opposition, befuddling progressives, who had to turn to the California courts to take the issue out of the hands of the electorate.
As hispanics continue to establish themselves economically in the middle and upper working classes, the picture will only get grimmer for Democrats.
9
Abortion. Abortion. Abortion.
4
@JMM Why do "pro-life" backers insist that women "go ahead and have those babies" then do nothing to help the mother after the birth? No day care, no health care and no paid maternal leave.
They should call themselves "pro birth." Life is what happens after the baby arrives. The GOP then says, "You're on your own."
First, Hispanics are not as culturally monolithic as African Americans. Depending on how long they have been in America, whether or not they identify as white, what country they come from, they have very different interests. There is not the same sense of racial solidarity.
Second, the majority of Hispanics "identify" racially as white. And many aspire more to "whiteness" than to minority status. In many ways - religion, family, culture - some Hispanics, particularly middle class Hispanics, have far more in common with "white ethics" like Irish, Italians, and Portuguese than they do African Americans. And white ethnics have increasingly leaned GOP as they have assimilated and suburbanized. It would not be surprising if Hispanics follow the same trajectory, especially if they continue to intermarry at high rates with whites and move into the suburban middle class.
Third, Hispanics tend to be more culturally conservative and more religious, which makes them very receptive to the GOP's cultural conservatism.
Fourth, I know it is a stereotype, but Hispanics have a hard work ethic. Many come to America from corrupt or socialist countries where the government could not be relied upon or the government was seen as an obstacle to prosperity. They are natural recipients of the GOP message of lower taxes, less government, "makers vs takers."
I'm actually surprised that more Hispanics DON'T vote GOP.
39
RELIGION
4
Catholicism.
3
Catholicism
3
It's the economy, stupid.......
4
Treating "Latinos" as a homogenous block is a silly idea.
What we think of as Latinos is comprised of a diverse group of people from different cultural, racial, economic, religious and historical backgrounds.
Might as well ask why Democrats aren't winning the American vote.
11
Why? Poor selection. Everyone's trying to out-Che Guevara the other. What's left is a pool of screamers, flailing their fists calling for the upside-down turn of everything. It gets old real fast. I am numb to the language of revolution now, I've heard it so many times. I like stability.
Hispanics are right to vote for Trump. They do better with Trump. And they know it. That's why the numbers are what they are.
10
The comments section here speaks volumes to why the Democrats' current strategy is grossly tone-deaf outside of gentrified sections of Brooklyn and the Bay Area.
17
pls explain
Simple: because the world is not divided by races/ethnicites, but by classes.
Middle class Hispanics will vote Democrat.
Capitalist class Hispanics will vote Republican.
Working class Hispanics will vote neither.
13
Many Hispanics are family-centered, blue-collar, immigrants from countries neighboring failed socialist states, and generally socially conservative, especially towards abortion. Not voting for the Democrats has everything to do with these values as does the implied apathy that white writers love to sneak into their pieces. At the end of the day, the Democratic Party has to reclaim family values and leave space for those with restricted views of abortion. Build a Wall is not enough to justify voting for what is considered a mortal sin by the Catholic Church.
17
A large number of Hispanics are loyal Catholics. The Church vehemently opposes abortion and is hostile to LGBTQ. The Dems double down in defense of both issues. How can one not at least mention this obvious disincentive to voting Democrat in a story on the subject? There is little the Dems can do about this situation specifically except to emphasize tolerance for color and origin. And social solutions appealing to all. But reporting should recognize the issue. It is what keeps the Elephant Party in the room with Many Latino voters.
7
@James Kidney I long for the day when religion no longer has any sway over people's lives. The Catholic Church never left the Dark Ages.
Being half-Hispanic and half-Jewish, perhaps I can provide something of a different perspective.
I don't think Hispanics as a whole are quite as sensitive to the racism issue as Jews (and probably African-Americans, but I'm not black). Within people's grandparent's memories, Germany turned on its Jews and killed not only them, but most Jews in Europe! That's pretty scary, and explains why I've seen my relatives get worked up over dog-whistles that seem quite abstruse to outsiders. ("Globalists?") There's no clear Hispanic analog.
Conversely, Hispanics are basically everyone from Mexico to Argentina (+- Brazilians). That's 33 countries each with their own culture. Mexicans may not be terribly mad at a comment about Puerto Ricans (do Canadians get mad when somebody insults Australia?), and documented immigrants may not be worried if Trump talks about undocumented immigrants ("hey, I'm here legally"). Also, racism doesn't exactly work the same way south of the Rio Grande--a whiter skin is considered 'more attractive', but if you are wealthier you are considered 'paler' in some countries, so many Hispanics may be more concerned with being upwardly mobile than with defending people they are trying to dissociate themselves from. People with a conservative Catholic culture may identify more with Republicans (recall abortion is *illegal* in parts of Latin America). Finally, Trump's rank incompetence means things haven't gotten that much worse for most of us.
All IMHO, of course.
29
Ignoring the virtues or faults of either party, for a moment, just so we can look at this objectively:
Had the GOP not fallen into the demonization-of-immigrants trap, they might well have secured a majority of the most important demographic in the United States, much as the Democrats now own an 80-95% majority of the Jewish- and African-American electorate.
That single mistake may go down as perhaps the worst strategic move by any party in the history of American electoral politics.
1
They will still get them after Trump is gone. wait and see.
1
The black guy who said "These Hispanics are just white people from South America" hit the nail on the head.
There is no reason that Hispanic immigrants won't gradually stop speaking Spanish, get good jobs, and be just like everyone else. It will happen quicker than you think. Then they'll ask why the schools are bad and property taxes are so high.
While the Cubans came from a communist country and embraced anti-communism, the Hispanics coming in now came from corrupt states, and are looking for clean government and the rule of law. As Florida shows, the GOP politicians can appeal to a lot of these people.
As for immigration, there was a Spanish radio talk show in Miami where caller after caller complained about illegal immigration - "I spent ten years and thousands of dollars getting a visa, and these guys think they can just walk right in?"
29
@Jonathan - why do think that Trump and the Republicans are the ones who offer "clean government and the rule of law"?
1
@Daniel - Trump may not, but the judges he is appointing are constitutionalists and legal sticklers. Out in the states and cities, many large urban areas are run by Democratic machines with dubious ethics.
White people are fairly split on what party they vote for with a slight Republican preference. Blacks overwhelmingly vote Democratic. Now the question is why don’t Hispanics vote Democratic. Seriously, it’s the Democrats who want people to vote their race and it’s the Republicans who get accused of racism?
20
As a Cuban who came in the 60's as a young teen, I can tell you that the first wave of Cubans was very conservative. Their anti-Castro views aka anti-communism primarily was due to an elitist and white supremacist view point. When I became a young adult, I was an anomaly because I chose to be a liberal Democrat and I left Southern Florida because my views were received with a great deal of hostility and that included my family.
A great problem in the US is the institutionalized racism that views all Hispanics/Latinos as "colored" (a quaint term that seems in vogue again). The reality is that, just like in the US, Latin American countries are a mixed populations with the wealth mostly controlled by "white" elites who hold in contempt the indigenous/black/mulatto people. Hence the struggle for Cuba and now for Venezuela.
6
Irish Americans have never been a majority in the nation, in New York City, or even in Boston. Yet from JFK to Ronald Reagan to McConnell to McCain their national influence as a political bloc has been enormous. Their role for example in normalizing the American view of Catholics is underappreciated.
Since the 1840s potato famine we have seen Irish immigrants rise from a despised minority to every level of society. Hispanic politicians would do well to study how Irish descendants maintained their culture in America while assimilating brilliantly into American culture. In some important ways the Hispanic experience is different, but there are too many similarities to ignore.
3
Memo to researchers:
Compare voting by paper ballot vs. machine ballot (by demographics).
I was baffled and confused by my first entry into a voting booth, and have never voted since (it gets you called for jury duty).
2
Sorry Sam you shouldn’t try to pick and choose among your duties as a Citizen. Civics 101.
In general younger people with more education tend to vote far more often then those who have less education. Young women particularly in the last few years are much more likely to vote then young men.
Language and identity play a major role also in explaining the miserable turn out of Hispanic US citizens.
It seems quite simple to me. In state where Hispanics are a significant part of the electorate put Hispanics in your campaign organization. Find out what that community needs from government and put those needs as part of your ads and literature in Spanish.
The Hispanic vote is completely different then the Black vote. It has to be approached differently and not taken for granted.
4
I am an Irish-American liberal Democrat who speaks Spanish, has spent years in Mexico and Central America, and knows something about most of the large concentrations of Latino populations in the US. Outsider, but with some chops.
First of all, as Mr Edsall points out, a significant fraction of the US Latino population doesn't want more Latino immigrants. Lots of anxieties: fear of competition for jobs; fear of endangerment of upward mobility by being lumped together with low-skilled little-educated newcomers; fear of strengthening politicians who seek collectivist welfare-state policies. These voters would generally self-describe as politically moderate.
Which gets to another point. Many Latinos are culturally conservative. How many is "many?" I can't say offhand (time to look at Pew Research Center), but I know for a fact that lots of Latinos feel alienated from what they read about or hear about on the myriad manifestations of what we lump together as identity politics.
If Democrats want to unseat Trump, we'll need a candidate who can both attract a large Latino voter turn-out in general and Latino politically moderate, culturally conservative voters in particular.
6
@Conn Nugent I don't know how you accomplish what you suggest. There seems to be a chasm regarding abortion rights and and pro-life people. So-called identity politics are not a sometime issue. It is fundamental to maintaining a humane democracy for all. A tent, politically speaking, can be large but it can't hold people together at extreme odds. Migration that we see today is a symptom of things to come - drought, gangs, increasingly corrupt governments. An altogether different conversation needs to take place regarding concerns of conservative Latinos.
Once again, the title of the article is misleading. The article does NOT provide an answer to the question it poses - "Why Aren't Democrats Winning the Hispanic Vote 80-20 or 90-10?"
The answer, I think, is that those who came legally and sacrificed to remain legal, are now citizens, and are eligible to vote are offended by Democratic policies regarding illegal immigration. I hope the Democratic arty GETS this before it is too late for 2020.
This article did offer me a new insight. If one reason the Democrats are pursuing their hard-left pro-illegal immigration agenda is the hope of securing a future majority, they are in for a rude shock. Hispanics who are socially conservative are more than likely to ditch the party once they become legalized. Democrats, beware!
29
@na your very premise, splitting Hispanics into legal immigrants and illegal immigrants, reveals a common prejudice. Many Hispanics are not immigrants at all.
Do you really think that people are going to vote the same way because they come from a country that speaks Spanish?
Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Colombians, Cubans, ect all have different national identities and tendencies towards liberal or conservative politics. "Hispanics" are also many races, including white, mestizo, indigenous, black, mixed, and some are even of Asian descent.
As such, it is not surprising that many conservative, mostly white and white passing "Hispanics" are drawn to the Republican Party. Before they totally degenerated into Trumpism, conservatives aggressively courted many of these voters. Trump is helping us now, but Democrats still need to court this diverse, young and still up for grabs section of our society.
9
You can't read this article without crying out for someone to pose the question "is the category 'Latino' politically meaningful?" And to pose that question out loud. And to keep posing the question until it dawns on someone in a position of influence within the Democratic Party that treating demographics as destiny is a bankrupt strategy that empties politics of real meaning and renders one half of the national political party system incapable of offering a meaningful challenge to anything served up by the Republican Party -- Trumpist or not.
14
Viewing "Hispanics" as a block with common interests is not accurate and, in its way, vaguely racist. While its well known that Cuban Americans have leaned Republican over the years (which may be changing), there are broad differences in experience, education and general world view across the demographic.
Many Hispanic immigrants came here for economic opportunity, run small businesses and are very concerned about keeping every dollar they earn. As a group, they are more religious than the general population and may find the Democratic "pro choice" litmus test for candidates not aligned with their views.
Those that have run the legal gauntlet of our dysfunctional immigration system don't necessarily favor amnesty for those that entered illegally as they are most impacted by the violent criminals and human trafficking that take advantage of our unsecured borders. Those that come from repressive and/or corrupt regimes may have a genuine and justified fear of interacting with the government.
Like all waves of immigration that preceded it, the 2nd and following generations of these immigrants are more integrated into the general population, educated here, have increasing socio-economic diversity and are even less likely to vote as a block.
Rather than assuming these voters will vote Democrat, the Republicans would be better served by finding ways to reach out to the parts of the Hispanic community where there is common ground.
13
The Democrats seem to miss several key points:
1) People vote based on feelings and emotion, NOT on facts (this is true for both parties).
2) Many people vote based on their values, NOT their perceived self interest (i.e. wealthy people who are socially liberal voting for Democrats or working class, social conservatives voting Republican)
3) Before Trump, the GOP was divided on illegal immigration-i.e. the Bushes, Reagan, McCain, Rubio, etc were all pro amnesty.
4) Lots of lower income people are NOT looking for a handout and may resent those who are.
5) The Democrats come across as extremely anti-christian. (Religious belief will outweigh other aspects of identity politics).
14
One of the success pipelines for the Hispanic male is the military. They have a strong tradition with the Marines. White Soldiers and Marines have a long standing antipathy for the Democratic Party [I work with many Hispanics in Law Enforcement who are Vets and see that they are influenced by the general attitude of the Whites in the services].I think the best thing the Democrats can do is to show how their policies actually are more beneficial to active duty and vets. Support strongly the Vote Vets organization, Maybe even set up help offices near major bases.Many soldiers and Marines need some counseling financial, legal, even medical. I know when I was in the Army , and had a law degree, [I wasn't in JAG] we had help stations once a week to advise soldiers with legal problems outside of the JAG offices. I am not saying that you will change the military's general Republican culture, but here is where you can make strong inroads , Vets and Soldiers are very respected in the Hispanic community and you need to let them know who their real friends are.
1
Minority cultures are inherently and socially conservative, qualities that promote group cohesion and mutual support. The same applies to a large segment of blue-collar workers who feel threatened by any influx of competing workers. Education and exposure to a world of diverse ideas is still the only way forward.
3
One needs to consider the influence of religion on especially older Latino voters and the dismal participation of younger voters. Conservative Catholic ideology fits well into GOP rhetoric even if it is just talk. Of course effective outreach and not taking anything for granted would benefit the Dems.
2
For decades Democratic politicians have treated the black vote with a kind of practical disdain. Not a racist disdain as some claim, but rather as a simple matter of "Oh, we can count on their votes because the other side is so much worse. So let's not waste political capital on them that we can use elsewhere." Today we see some of the same 'practical' attitude with respect to the Hispanic vote, thanks hugely to Trump.
Since 2008 we have seen what a difference turnout can make in election results when black and Hispanic candidates are in top spots on the ballot. Remember how in early 2008 all the smart people knew Obama could never be elected? Imagine what the Hispanic vote will be if the Democrats nominate a Hispanic candidate for president in the general election this year. For a century we have seen electing women to public office as a civil rights issue. This is also true of electing people of color. If it is time to elect a woman president, it may also be high time to elect a Hispanic to the highest office in the land.
2
Tom, "Hispanics" are not a homogeneous group, either ethnically, culturally, religiously, or ideologically. Why would they vote like a block?
Why would we expect them to do so?
That the political elite of my party sees them as a homogeneous group capable of being "captured" says more than a little about how Democrats arrived at this awful place.
Identity politics is for political losers. I would bet that a strong majority of Americans want candidates who bring us together, who see us individuals capable of transcending cultural and ethnic stereotypes, and who promote economic justice and personal empowerment beyond all.
29
As a Puerto Rican from Orlando, Fl I can tell you the problem with Democrats is they do not speak about ME. All they count on is my dislike for Trump because he speaks about Puerto Rican politicians and honestly everything he says its TRUE. He does not insult the Puerto Ricans, he insults the Government and a lot of us share those views. I vote Democratic in every election because I am a "Nuyorican", with "middle class" income and life style. I want Democrats to talk about My taxes, My healthcare, My family. Immigration, welfare benefits, food stamps don't speak to my reality. Bread and Butters issues do. WAKE UP democrats and follow Nancy Pelosis advise, speak about relevant issues that matter to everyday Americans, because at the end of the day that is what we ALL are.
183
@mw
I appreciate your comment but Hillary Clinton has detailed policy plans for everything you mention. Detailed. Perhaps you don't want to read them. Until you can show me what the GOP plans are for the "bread and butter" issues, or if those "plans" are superior, this complaining about no taking about issues is simply untrue.
21
@CarolSon I don't think @mw is loking for detailed position papers churned out by an army of paid wonks. He's talking about a broader, more obvious show of concern -- even of passion -- for issues (he's described) that matter to him.
29
@CarolSon I think you meant had not "has". HRC is not ever running again. Indeed she had detailed plans about everything but did not bother to campaign on those ideas but campaigned against Trump when her approval ratings were only slightly better than his.
And if she had taken those wonderful ideas to the midwest and actually campaigned among us deplorables she might have won.
24
Because they assume Hispanics are a homogenous voting block. They are not. Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, and Central Americans each come from very different cultures, are confronted by very different issues, and have very different voting profiles, if they can vote at all. Add to that the generational divide that occurs with every new wave of immigrants and you'll see that Hispanics are a very diverse group go voters. Just because we are brown and come from warmer climates, doesn't make us low hanging fruit.
15
“The latino vote” is not. The population of what is being called “latino” is more diverse than its typical characterization, although this column does explore that some.
They vote from a much more diverse economic and social experience than African Americans.
So frankly the “Latino vote” will always be split along non-ethnic lines.
The most important thing the Democrats can do is walk the walk of being the party for people who actually work for a living, and want to be given a decent chance at upward mobility: Stop wage theft, stop housing and employment discrimination, make schools safe, and leave my family alone-I will do the rest.
5
Republicans will gain with Latino voters, especially with the increasing economically successful ones, in forthcoming elections. The Democrats current agenda is to push illegal immigration and garner these new arrivals as potential voters. Democrats realize that without them, they will continue to lose. Their concern for power far outweighs their phony concern for the rights of immigrants. Latinos, those that have benefited economically from America and who feel threatened by the massive influx of illegal immigrants, realize this.
8
You left out the elephant in the room. Most Latino voters are a mixture of very pious and indifferent, Roman Catholics, with everything that implies culturally and politically. The few who are not are in an even more conservative faith, the evangelical wing of Protestantism.
Sure, on an almost weekly basis the current Pope in Rome is preaching openness and accommodation to migrants, and something close to the hard left's quasi-open borders. But he certainly isn't on board with our chattering class and louche popular culture on sex, marriage, reproductive issues and the whole "gender is an opinion" thing. The evangelicals are even more rigid.
To assume Latinos are unmoved or indifferent to cultural trends they find either offensive or at least challenging is myopic and dismissive. On Florida, Democrats need to have all these tech millionaires using their money there with laser like attention to get out the vote, and court Hispanic communities.
5
The vast majority of Hispanics are hard working people many earning minimum wages.The poor simply are not motivated to vote because they don’t see how either party will offer a better life.They live in their enclaves where Spanish is the chosen language, and the outside world is a bit frightening.This is going to change with the leadership of Cortez & others like her.
2
Hispanic tends to be a broadly defined demographic that includes white Americans who have descended from Spanish-speaking ancestors. Furthermore, I'm surprise to see this article conflating Hispanic with Lantino, which are usually distinct on demographic forms. This makes the subsequent data analysis confusing a potentially useless.
2
Who are Hispanics?
They are fundamentally a language group that was created as a “minority” by the census bureau only in the mid-20th century. They come from some 20 different countries and any race or religion you can think of.
They have no more natural affinity for each other than an English speaker from Maine and an English speaker from Texas might. Indeed, probably less so, as they come from different countries, rather than just one. And do keep in mind that Maine and Texas often vote differently.
The assumption among Democrats that Hispanics are all alike and they must all respond positively to lax immigration rules and anti-racism slogans is no more nuanced than Fox’s statement that there are now three Mexican countries.
Do you really think Cameron Diaz (for example) has suffered terrible racism because of her Hispanic minority status? Or Marco Rubio? Ted Cruz?
And even recent immigrants are often not pleased with illegal immigrants. When my non-minority relatives were deported for illegally overstaying their visas, nobody turned it into a narratove of racism and hate. It was “Oh, bad luck, but you broke the law and got caught, see you next time.”
Treating voters as uniform members of demographic identity groups is the achilles heel of Democrats.
Time to grow up and appeal to voters as individuals with different interests and concerns instead of using the very unreliable crutch of identity politics.
13
The longer Latinos stay in the US, the more conservative they become. I know of two families, Spanish first names and surnames, speak no Spanish, enlisted in the Marines, and more conservative than me. And that says something.
The longer they work here, the more Democratic policies rankle them. After all, they work hard for a living.
18
As many below have expressed, established Latinos in the US from various countries and backgrounds are conservative and opposed to illegal immigration. I was a volunteer at a helping agency in Texas for many years. Latino volunteers used their expertise to help illegals with health and food problems but they were conservative, did not favor amnesty, and voted Republican more than Democratic. Dems cannot count on Latinos without a lot of wooing in any races.
2
Basically -- and I'm being really Basic here -- it's like this: Hispanics/Latinos are NOT a monolithic group.
When they do these polls, they're counting many fifth- and sixth-generation Hispanics from Texas and elsewhere, who -- for all intents and purposes -- are culturally White.
And also, Cubans from Florida are a culture apart. Male Cubans, especially, have been known to denigrate their Central American cousins at every opportunity.
When Republicans hurl epithets at undocumented aliens, these multi-generation Latinos are able to say, "He's not talking about me, he's talking about THEM. I'm not a part of them, so it's OK for me to vote for him."
4
As a group, Latinos have the lowest rates of becoming citizens when they are eligible among all immigrant groups.
But there are sharp class differences among Latinos. The people who become citizens and vote are not just different from those who don't. They are often opposed to illegal immigration.
College educated Latino women successfully navigating the professional landscape are often very opposed to the macho culture that is still part of many Latinos' lives.
In the same family, you can have one person with multiple graduate degrees working for major corporations and another with a high school degree working off the books and speaking Spanish 90% of the time.
Latinos are not one group. They don't see themselves this way or act or vote this way.
7
The headline embodies the problem. Thinking about a group of millions of people as if they all should think, act, do the same thing, have the same politics, and behave as a block is profoundly racist and condescending. The category doesn't even make sense. Someone born in Mexico comes from a different culture than someone from Argentina yet we lump them together as "Hispanics" because they speak the same language. The whole concept is racist and founded on meaningless distinctions yet the "progressives" harp on it incessantly. This is "soft" or perhaps even "benevolent" racism but it is still racism and it is the reason why the 2020 election, which should be a slam dunk for reasonable people, is in doubt.
3
You never told us WHY Hispanics vote Republican, only stats that show they do.
I argue it is the machismo rhetoric of the GOP. All they do is talk tough with no action, but it seems to work.
2
Unlike what many U.S. born and bred Americans, many Hispanics are right-leaning and can't help it. Having been cauterized by years of dictatorships and autocratic government can't be forgotten. We can't help it.
Many Latino voters may oppose illegal immigration but I doubt they favor asylum seeking families being put in pens. It has been years of a Republican Congress refusing to propose, negotiate and legislate immigration reform that is the cause of the crush of humanity at our southern border.
3
With only 46 percent of white vote being democratic it is no s surprise the republicans to turn out their base lien white nationalism if not outright appeal to it, with weak denials post dog whistle statements.
A group conveniently lumped together as "Hispanic" or "Latino" that features millions of different folks from many different Countries doesn't vote as a monolith?
This can only be surprising to folks who don't know many "Hispanics" or "Latinos." So here's an Alternative Headline:
"Why aren't the Brown people voting like the Black people?"
5
You are assuming that Latinos vote as a bloc or somehow have something in common because they are Latino. The reason Latinos don’t all vote democratic is that the community is as diverse and conflicted as every other community.
In short they don’t act the same because they are not the same.
The question is why aren’t all Americans voting 80/20 Democrats or 90/10 Democrats?
2
I can’t believe that Whites can choose to be racists, centrists,liberals, supremacists, progressives etc. but other groups are seen as monoliths.
Maybe the simple explanation is right. The Latinos and Blacks who voted for Trump preferred his message. This may be abhorrent to an op ed writer of the NYT but it can also simply be true.
12
I knocked on over 1,000 doors in Staten Island to help elect Rep. Max Rose there. There was a huge difference between Latinos who spoke with a Spanish accent (Democratic voters) and those who did not (Republican voters). They assimilate into the far more conservative majority of citizens. The same thing happened with the Italians and the Irish.
2
This article is missing two key words - "Venezuela" and "white". First off, many Latinos come from countries with failed left-wing experiments. That's why Cubans vote Republican. That's also why many Venezuelans, Brazilians, and others identify with the Republican party, because the rhetoric of the Democrats echoes the failed left wing governments of their home countries.
Second, over half of Hispanics (53%, from what I've read) self-identify as white. A far larger percentage also have some mixed European ancestry. (Kind of ironic given the race arguments over "The Wall"). Either way, why is it surprising that white Hispanics vote differently than other whites, immigrant or native born?
8
It's a big mistake to view Latinos as any sort of homogeneous voting group. Do we expect some sort of predictable voting pattern from Europeans?
The Democrats can not afford to assume anything now.
From my experience in the Latino world,-dual citizenship and Latino family- only the prior economic class and condition in the country of origin can hint at political alignment here in the states, and that is still very unpredictable.
Laughing, recalling how many Latinas in South America are preoccupied with their skin color, avoiding the sun, not wanting to be dark, and the prevalence of the given name
Blanca among them.
3
For the same reason White men don’t vote 90 percent Republican. People have more complex affiliations than just their race, income, or sexual orientation.
95
@Rick
And some people actually have independent thoughts that are not determined by any of their affiliations.
@Rick
Or, Russian trolls targeted a pivotal voting bloc. No collusion, just granting wishes..
Part of the problem is political wonks tend to approach Hispanics and Latinos as a homogeneous group. They are not. Age is one difference that will effect voting patterns. However, there are a wide variety of factors on which the Hispanic community divide.
I once had a Guatemalan neighbor on one side and a Mexican neighbor on the other. They both spoke Spanish. That's pretty much where the similarities ended. You talk to my Mayan-American friend and you just opened up an entirely different set of political preferences and cultural biases. All are technically considered "Hispanic" though.
I think politicians generally miss the complex dynamics of Spanish speaking communities even on a local level. Part of the reason Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won her primary is because she understood what was going on in her district. A surefire way to remain ignorant is to avoid talking to the Hispanic community.
Just like Millennials and the Midwest, Democrats assume every Spanish speaker is exactly like the one Latino person they know. They obviously vote Democrat. Sorry, that's not how it works. You need to go out and do the leg work.
By the way, you can use any point of contact to register young Hispanic voters. That's the main impediment to youth voting in general. No one bothers to show them how. Canvassing local colleges last year, I found 80 percent of students a) didn't know whether they were registered or not and b) didn't know you could register through the DMV website in Utah.
1
I'm Hispanic, and a lifelong Democrat, but I'm not sure why my ethnic background would somehow guarantee that affiliation. I just happen to be liberal.
Indeed, as much as I abhor Trump, I think he's largely right about illegal immigration, and I know I'm not alone in that.
There's something almost racist in the assumption that because I'm Hispanic I should somehow condone illegal immigration when law-abiding applicants wait for years to get a green card. Illegal immigration creates a second class of worker that has no rights, drives down wages for blue collar workers, creates misery at the border, stresses communities, and sends the message that crime *does* pay.
326
@Josh Hill
Your comment should be a Times Pick, and I hope many people read it because this is the problem with the Dems. Look long and hard people at what Josh is saying. Until the Dems get on board and insist that laws are there for a reason and to reward lawbreakers is a mistake, a huge mistake.
97
@Josh Hill. The Democratic party is actually quite anti-illegal immigration. Obama deported more undocumented immigrants than any other president. Right-wing media tries to convince the public otherwise. And actually, Trump's policies have been very ineffective. The harsh and punitive actions of the administration have not reduced the numbers of those seeking asylum. Trump's policies are ineffective because they do not go at the source of the problem which is instability in Latin America and the business community's continued demand for migrant labor.
89
@Paul
"Right-wing media tries to convince the public otherwise. "
Actually, it's left wing media that tries to convince the public otherwise. The intention is to further the narrative that:
- anything Obama did was good
- anything Trump does is bad
- if Obama and Trump followed the same policies, how could anyone support the "resistance" ? so obviously Obama could not have followed the same policies as Trump.
31
Trump will certainly continue his anti-Latinx rhetoric because thus far he has paid no penalty for it. There is a line to be crossed, but no one, including Trump, will know what it is until he crosses it. I hope and pray he crosses that line before the 2020 election. Right now, from where I sit, we are the Titanic heading full speed ahead for the iceberg. It will take decades to repair the damage Trump and his GOP wrecking crew have done.
1
The question is not are Democrats winning the Hispanic vote — it’s why aren’t Democrats winning EVERYONE’S vote 80-20 or 90-10. Good grief.
4
@Donalan - Because not everyone sees the world exactly as you do. Amazing, huh?
3
@Ken Stabler
Yes, that is a question Democrats have great difficulty with.
1
Hispanic voters, like many Americans, admire wealth and success. The Idea of America, for them, is wealth, success, and freedom to do what you like –– burn energy, buy guns, tell other people what to do. And the American System of Capitalism is very successful. Admit it! And it is well-oiled, well-organized, and efficient in terms of wealth.
I mean, even Democrats share in the wealth and success. Many Liberal Democrats are successful because they own a big piece of the $160 Trillion under "asset management" in this country.
The Republicans are unabashed supporters of this system, as unbalanced and unequal as it is. They promise the masses (including Hispanics) that they, too, can have a piece of the pie if only they play by the rules, work hard, and believe. It's like lottery. It's like religion. It's like family.
The Democrats, on the other hand, are somewhat embarrassed by their wealth and success, and they spend their time talking about quick-fix government programs for groups of minorities (some of whom are viewed as "rivals" by Hispanics, or "undesirables"). And, of course, Democrats don't really want to seriously take on the American Capitalistic System as the world's greatest wealth-producing machine. Some people trust money more than mere political rhetoric. Who's to say they are wrong?
4
Let’s be real, Hispanics aren’t a monolith. You can be white, black, indigenous, Asian, etc and be Hispanic. The cultures are different and the only common aspect many Latinos share is language. Go to any Hispanic country and you will see the stark divide in class along racial lines. Many Hispanics are victims of white supremacy but they also uphold it in their own country, also many are white themselves or want to be white. So it’s not a surprise many come here and vote republican. People need to stop thinking that all minorities have solidarity especially when it comes to people of a darker complexion. Hispanics have a long history of racism.
7
As a Florida Native and of culturally Argentine background, I can say each hispanic culture considers themselves superior to others (Argentines especially; very arrogant, they are not looked on kindly by other South and Central American Countries). Since they seem superior to themselves, and not like the other riffraff; they are just as susceptible to be duped as the rest of Americans.
6
"...their Democratic opponents, Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum, took the Hispanic vote for granted."
Hmm..., sounds similar to the Hillary Clinton 2016 strategy in Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, with similar results.
5
I have a better question. Why aren't women for Democrats by 80-90%?
4
Isn't this the same issue with African American voters?
IF they vote at the rate of white voters, Democrats would always win, controlling the White House and both chambers of the Congress. A gigantic IF because the young, the poor, the less educated don't vote as much as they should.
1
@Avi - Blacks have consistently voted overwhelmingly for the Democrats, and look where it has gotten them! Some of them are starting to wonder if they've been had.....
2
The premise of this article is somewhat, dare I say bigoted.
The same reasons Democrats do not capture 90 percent of the Hispanic vote are often the same reasons they don’t capture 90 percent of the Caucasian vote.
Here is who could be Hispanic: Someone whose origins are from Spain and whose family came here centuries ago; someone whose origins is from Spain and whose family cams here by way of South America or Mexico: someone whose origins are from Spain and came here from Cuba decades ago fleeing communism. Someone who is indigenous to Mexico or Central America and came here recently or not so recently.
Someone who owns a business, is rich, poor, middle class, adamantly pro life, adamantly pro choice, is in a union, works as an ICE agent....
Get the point?
7
I’ll never forget the interview between the Hispanic mother who said she was voting for Cruz while her daughters were supporting Beto. When asked why she shrugged and after a lot of prodding she said it was about abortion... she just wanted to be contrarian and to show her daughter that they may be more educated than she is, but she can still smack them down when she wants to.
5
How do you get 90% of an “ethnicity “ to agree on anything in politics unless very few members of that group are actually thinking?
5
@David Weber
Look at Obama's election and the black vote.
Why aren't people whose own economic interests are being negatively impacted by the unfettered arrival of hundreds of thousands of people who happen to look like them voting enmass for Democrats? You really have to ask? Millions of Hispanics came here Legally. The Followed the Rules, Stood in Line and Waited Their Turn. Now they have their wages slashed and jobs stolen by an onslaught of others who share some DNA and skin color so it should be fine for that to happen? Some questions shouldn't need to be asked.
7
There's a reason that there is no United States of South America, or Central America, The term 'latino' presupposes a homogeneity that simply does not exist.
Out of curiosity, how many 'latinos' do you socialize with, share meals with, invites to your home?
3
The Hispanic population is assimilating --- it does not have the same "tribal" or religious baggage that some other groups have.
They are becoming Americans --- America is working for them.
4
Imagine that, all politics IS local. Democrats took the Hispanic vote for granted and lost. There are Hispanics who are pro life, and legally immigrated and fiscally conservative and small business owners and more afraid of MS-13 than they are of Trump. Even a Trump who can't say the word origins, is more compatible to them than a young gang member who knows nothing but hostile words. So maybe Hispanics need to be wooed just like every other voting bloc.
6
Machismo. Hard-core Pentecostals and other fundamentalists. Anti-aging laws that would make Ralph Reed blush. Examine the values of the immigrants coming from southern Mexico and Central America, and you realize that Democrats benefit unwittingly and enormously from Republican racism. As soon as the Republicans figure this out and start translating the culture war into Spanish, Democrats may well lose this demographic.
2
Hispanics are diverse. They are white, black and every shade in between. Asking why most of them don’t vote Democratic is like asking why doesn’t the entirety of our very diverse country vote Democratic.
75
This article treats "Hispanics" as a homogenous group. It is not anything close to that and therefore, the article is very deceptive. In fact, Pew data show that the three biggest groups of Hispanics are Mexican-American, Puerto Rican, and Cuban American. Except for Spanish language roots, each is quite different from the other.
Cuban-Americans from southern Florida are recent immigrants and they are a powerful Anti-Communist voting bloc. Back in the 1960s, vast portions of the Everglades were converted from wilderness marshland to sugar farming as part of their desire to wage economic war against Castro. While the development focus may have shifted since then, the Everglades have never recovered.
Meanwhile, people with Mexican ancestry are a heterogeneous group all by themselves. Some have American family roots that predate the US conquests of their lands. Others are recent immigrants. It should come as no surprise that voters seeking to protect long-standing roles in American society have different voting interests than those still struggling for a toehold in a new country.
Finally, Puerto Ricans living on the mainland are native-born US citizens. When I was a high school student in NYC in the 1960s, Many of my classmates resented the special treatment given Cuban refugees. While feelings have evolved over time, hard issues such as economic development and environmental preservation still create reasons for political conflict far beyond the commonality of language.
3
@Paul Konstadt I was just going to type this exact sentiment. I’m annoyed NYT framed this in such an unnuanced angle.
1
Many good points and thoughtful analysis. Thank you Mr. Edsall.
Some things consider:
Immigration - Some legal immigrants to the USA resent the perceived abuse of the system by those who arrive without proper documentation. DEMs should propose a strong policy that promotes and facilitates LEGAL immigration, while cracking down on illegal immigration and especially people who employ the undocumented. These employees are particularly susceptible to abuse by their employers because of their lack of legal recourse.
Economics - 1st and 2nd generation immigrants of every nationality tend to perform above average economically. (See the book The Millionaire Next Door.) Many of these entrepreneurial immigrants identify with the side of the GOP that pretends to promote small business and deregulation. DEM leaders should do interviews with GOP-supporting Latinos. They will find this is the case.
Religion - On average Latinos are more church-going than the population as a whole. DEMs need to understand this when addressing a range of issues.
2
Many Hispanics are Catholic, and many are opposed to abortion.
The Democratic base sees choice as a core value, a centerpiece of the platform. By amplifying this issue, the party alienates many people who would otherwise be supporters. I am not suggesting the party change its position. But the amplification shows that the party doesn't really understand the values of many who live on the edges of the tent.
Regarding immigration, many of us live in growing, desirable communities where the predominant attitude is to restrict growth. "Now that I am here, let's shut the door." It is not a surprise that some immigrants would share that perspective.
10
This notes "a significant increases in turnout of three to five percent, comparing 2018 with the 2014 midterms."
Its' correct to say this in an increase - but it's not correct to say this is significant given that nationally voter turn increased from 36% in 2014 to almost 50% in 2018.
The comparison is even more stark in the states that are noted for sharp Latino turnout. CA, TX and NV at +5%.
The increase in total turnout in these states was between 15-20% in those states.
This notes a 4% increase Florida in 2018 compared to 2014 - but it was a third of the total increase in turnout.
It may seem counterintuitive but I think what this shows is a continuing and significant decrease in Latino turnout - compared to the rest of the population.
4
At least in part Because those who came when the laws enabled them to stay... are fine with slamming the door in the faces of those who would follow.. it makes them special.
2
@Tracey Wade
No. The distinction is between those who came while adhering to the law and those who came despite the law.
1
It is a mistake to see Hispanic voters as a homogenous group. The Cuban-Americans in Cuba have different backgrounds and interests from the Latino voters in California and both differ from the Latino voters in Texas, New Mexico or Georgia.
It is a mistake for Democrats to take Latinos for granted. Like all voters they will support a candidate who speaks to the issues that are important to them in a voice that rings with genuine concern and commitment. Latino voters are quick to identify and dismiss the candidate who is just pandering. Latinos will ignore the candidate who ignores them.
3
I am not sure that the Democrats are entitled to get a greater percentage of the Hispanic vote, although some Democrats still find it very hard to believe that they don’t have the overwhelming Hispanic vote under the mistaken belief that their party’s positions are naturally in line with Hispanics’. A certain segment of Hispanics can be very conservative depending on three big factors which are whether they are evangelicals, view themselves as “white” and their perception of the role of government and social programs. They hold very different views from the Democrats on the role of government, how to address crime, education and immigration. They cannot be easily grouped by a candidate. The news sources vary as a recent immigrant may only read news from an outlet based in his country of origin and others may simply follow the mainstream like everyone else.
5
1. Hispanics who legally immigrated to the US hate illegal immigration, and agree with the substance, if not the style, of Trump's stance.
2. Floridian Hispanics (Cuban- and esp Venezuelan-Americans) have had front-row seats for the debacle in Venezuela, and surely even if they weren't from Venezuela it surely stiffened anti-socialist sentiment among these voters.
3. As racial intermarriage increases, terms like "Hispanic" are losing their statistical meaning, because a larger and larger % of "Hispanics" are ethnically white in terms of blood as well as culture, especially in states like Florida and Texas that have had large Hispanic populations for a long time.
4. The term Hispanic has always been a catchall for an extremely diverse grouping of peoples, who have extremely different levels of education, skin color, wealth, ethnic relations with each other, etc in a way that's completely different from, say, African-Americans.
22
“Hispanics” are not a voting bloc—if you have a ground game, you’ll realize that. But they are largely Catholic—and if you have a ground game you’ll know that seek room within Democratic politics to express their religious convictions about social justice and human dignity. For many, this includes opposition to abortion on demand, which they understand as a question of dignity and respect, not as a question of women’s freedom. You don’t have to agree with this view, but if you don’t listen then don’t be surprised that they don’t feel heard.
5
Everyone feels a little threatened by the numbers of people piling up at the border. It makes for riveting TV and part of me thinks the people of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador are receiving push messages and they are following the hoard.
Everything this administration does eggs it all on because the optics drive people to vote their fears. Immigrants regardless of how they got here are trying to hold on to what they have.
Report on the push
5
As a Hispanic part of the problem is the perception of 'Latinos' by non Latins. We are not Latinos we are Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, Cubans as well as many other nationalities that have the Spanish language as a common bond, but many different perspectives and experiences.
11
As a Cuban-American and a staunch Democrat, I'm pleased to see a number of comments herein regarding the dangers of applying a single label to an ethnicity that defies simple categorization. This wouldn't have been so evident a few years ago.
I noticed that the article itself used Latino and Hispanic as reference points, illustrating how confusing it can be to corral people with different cultural and historical backgrounds into one group, one tag.
It would behoove anyone going after this bloc's vote to recognize that it's not a bloc. People from Puerto Rico, Mexico, Venezuela, Argentina, Cuba and Ecuador are not alike and they won't think alike. They are also not recially the same. I grew up knowing Cubans who were black or Asian as well as white; Cubans who were Jewish and Protestant and Catholic; Cubans who were blue-collar and those who were wealthy. Why presume this group of people will all think alike? It speaks of insensitive presumptions that needs to be addressed before the discussion as a whole can move forward.
11
I have Hispanic acquaintances who are middle class. They are in this country legally, own their own homes and businesses, and are proud of becoming American citizens and having the right to vote.
As I do, they welcome welcome LEGAL immigrants, but do not want ILLEGAL immigrants. They recognize that the US cannot afford (or choose not) to support our own citizens: the poor, the ill, elderly, disabled, veterans, et al., and that they and other US taxpayers cannot possibly support the hundreds of millions of foreigners who would like to come here.
US laws allow foreigners to seek entry and citizenship. Those who do not follow these laws are in this country illegally and should be detained and deported; this is policy in other countries, too.
The cruelty lies not in limiting legal immigration, or detaining and deporting illegal immigrants, or forcing those who wish to enter the US to wait for processing. What is cruel, unethical and probably illegal is encouraging parents to bring their children on the dangerous trek to US borders and teaching the parents how to game the system to enter the US by falsely claiming asylum, persecution, etc. Indeed, many believe bringing children on such perilous journeys constitutes child abuse.
No other nation has open borders, nor should the US.
We Democrats need to wake up to the fact that Hispanics are not a single voting bloc, and we must earn a major proportion of their votes if we want to defeat Trump in 2020.
114
@Mal T as a legal immigrant from Eastern Europe, you are 100% right. We waited over 5 years to come here legally, we often tease our Pop about what a jerk he was when he couldve saved a lot of money and come here years earlier.
Also, how can this newspaper have an analysis of Hispanics and their vote and not even mention RELIGION, or CATHOLICISM, or ABORTION??
Pretty much tells you that the NYT and Democrats have not learned a single lesson from November 2016
16
@Mal T Democrats do not support open borders. Global warming and violence are causing much of the mass movement of people all over the world.
10
@PatriotDem
How do you square the circle on sanctuary city policies?
5
The short answer to Mr. Edsall's question is that Latinos are individuals, just like anyone else. They have varied opinions on things, and plenty of them are religious conservatives (many came from - or their ancestors came from - countries that are fiercely Catholic). Speak to some Cuban expats in Florida, and you will find that many of them side with Trump on issues like Socialism (fleeing from a communist country will do that do a person). The Democratic party assumes that many of their constituent groups vote for their candidates because they agree on issues. Unfortunately this is not the case. The truth is that the Republican party has become so toxic that they see no choice. But believe me, if the Republican party can ever shed its decades-old racist nonsense, conservative African Americans and Latinos will vote for Republican candidates in droves.
50
@Ben You're so right. I can't characterize all Latinos, but from the countries I've visited in Latin America, I've found that many of those with whom I've come in contact are very socially conservative, with traditional values and outlooks. They also work hard and do not like high taxes on their hard-earned money. I know the Dems believe that Latinos will make them the permanent, dominant party in this country. In the fullness of time, though, that might prove incorrect.
3
First of all, the whole 'Hispanic' label is wrong, and reflects a disrespect of the origins and needs of these voters, and many of them resent the lump and label ethos of the Democrats. The people who are legal and voters are by and large exceptionally proud of being Americans first, and they do not feel like victims as much as they feel proud of what they are accomplishing for themselves and their family. By and large, they have hope for themselves and especially for their children. Democrats have to tap into that, not the oppression and hopelessness and institutional racism/sexism mantra that feeds so fully into the African American and LGBTQ communities. In a lot of ways, Americans of Hispanic origin are more like blue collar rust belt Americans in their religion, patriotism, and belief in family. Can the Democrats pivot to embrace that? I tend to doubt it.
68
@John
I'd agree, but what you say about African Americans and LGBT people is pretty unfair, since both groups *have* experienced in-your-face discrimination.
3
@Josh Hill
Historically the Democrats were the party that discriminated against Blacks. The GOP has never supported explicitly anti-black policies, unless you consider opposition to affirmative action to be anti-black.
4
@Joe Public
Sorry, but that all changed with Nixon's adoption of the Southern strategy and the courting of the Strom Thurmond Dixiecrats.
The Democratic Party that discriminated against Blacks disappeared with Lyndon Johnson's signing of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. By 1968, George Wallace was running as an independent Presidential candidate, not as a Democrat.
In truth, the modern Democratic Party has much more in common with the Radical Republicans of Lincoln's era and the GOP with the Copperhead Democrats of that same era.
2
Because they spend huge political capital on irrelevant social issues - which don’t interest most working people at all.
53
Same reason Europeans don't vote 80-20 or 90-10. Hispanic encompasses more countries than Europe.
14
First, as other comments point out, the Latino community is not monolithic. For one example, there are Catholics and Evangelicals who will vote for the GOP solely on abortion. There are also those who strongly support legal, but not illegal, immigration.
Second, and more importantly, this article reinforces the first principle of politics … if you don't campaign among a group, you won't get their votes.
What the Democrats need to do in 2020 is to campaign in every demographic (including older white males without a college degree). And, to do this, in the limited time available, they need to forgo the multiple fundraising events that, for example, Hillary attended in October 2016.
43
While a lot of what is written here rings true, it is a major mistake to view all Spanish-speaking voters as a bloc. Demographics and psychographics differ. For example, many voters of Cuban descent hold traditional and conservative values. In courting Spanish-speaking voters, it's not "one-size-fits-all." That type of approach is demeaning AND ineffective.
24
@Fast Marty
Exactly. If Democrats are for a color blind America their politics should reflect that by advocating policies based on values sincerely held, and not tailored to woo voters based on race demographics.
2
Two observations from south Florida and my extensive association with many Hispanics at work and at leisure.
First, many Hispanics of my acquaintance belong to evangelical mega-churches and are a lost cause due to strong right wing sentiments that go along with this highly judgmental group. They are all about rules and following rules. While they may support church-sponsored charities, they fundamentally lack mercy to reach those in need from an institutional, state-sponsored standpoint. Second, to my astonishment, many Hispanics I know strongly support a crackdown on illegal immigration and even oppose accommodation of the "dreamers." The rough sentiment being "I had to wait in line to come legally, why shouldn't they?" Wet foot/dry foot Cubans even support this concept and see no contradiction in their being helped to the front of the line. These issues may prove insurmountable, and will require creativity to try to change opinions as a new election approaches.
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@kate
Excellent observation and analysis. I would only add two supporting observations:
(1) the media and politicians believe "ends in O" is a binding characteristic for multitudes of Latino cultures with vastly different belief systems and cultural biases, and...
(2) the Catholic Church shares the characteristics of the evangelicals - judgmental, rigid, anti-abortion, anti-birth control, etc.
17
@kate
Why do you find that surprising? Many waited for years to immigrate legally, and have friends and family who are similarly waiting, while others break the law and jump the queue.
If someone jumps in line, do you automatically support them because you have a similar ethnic background?
The Democrats have to stop seeing everything in terms of identity politics -- people want to be treated fairly, yes, but that's very different from wanting others in their own group to have immunity from the law.
21
@kate You raise an interesting point.
In Jonathan Haidt's book The Righteous Mind, he points to the fact-based research that shows conservatives drawn their morality from institutional authority, sanctity, loyalty, tradition, honor, fairness and ending oppression. Ask a conservative what paying 'their fair share' is and they will tell you an answer differently than you will hear from a liberal or progressive. They get super excited for 4th of July celebrations. Progressives do not.
Liberals and Progressives largely draw their morality from ending oppression and fairness, but again..you have to ask 'oppressed' from what? If you're arguing that today's Black Americans 8 generations removed from slavery are oppressed, you're focusing on the wrong oppression. If you think being tough with 5 million illegal immigrants trying to crash our border is oppressive, then you're not paying attention to the institutional morality we have in this nation that allows for so many diverse viewpoints to exist.
In other words, Haidt suggests conservatives understand where liberals are coming from just fine.
It's liberals who don't have a clue why conservatives believe what they believe; feel what they feel; and behave as they behave.
These are innate traits drawn from our ancestral DNA, which is why Clarence Thomas, Condeleeza Rice, Larry Elder and Thomas Sowell are strong conviction conservative Black Americans.
They don't dwell on where they came from. They're focused on the future.
6
Yes, the Dems must worry 1st about 2020 and defeating Trump, hopefully holding the House and taking back the Senate along the way. That said, Dems must develop good strategies going forward. Many who will not vote for Trump may turn out in 2020 just hoping to be rid of him. That said, many Latinos are conservative and, therefore, in some ways more natural allies of the GOP right-wing (even if not the far right) on social issues.
The next election must be viewed on its own merit, but cannot be counted as indicative of what will happen in 2024 and beyond. In fact, if the Dems go too far to the left in 2020, they may find that the Latino population stays home rather than vote for Trump - and then moves to the GOP in 2024.
11
The current high rates of immigration of low skilled workers have disparate impacts on different socio-economic groups. At the upper end, people get cheaper nannies, clean hotel rooms, landscaping costs, restaurant services, but at the low end, there is enormous downward pressure on wages for low and unskilled workers already in the market. No coder in Seattle or Boston need worry about a 23 y/o Salvadoreña taking her job, but a hotel room cleaner in those same cities certainly should.
32
Coders are either being displaced with immigrants with worker visas or offshoring.
3
@Glenn Baldwin
There is way more competition from foreign workers at the high-end of the labor market. Coders have to compete with other coders from all over the world; Google is going to hire the best person regardless of their nationality. Go to any investment bank, tech start up, hospital—and you’ll find the professional staff come from 50 different countries. Whereas a hotel is just going to hire someone local. The difference is that most people at the high-end of the labor market think of foreigners as colleagues and not competition.
2
Some Spanish speakers, most long-term naturalized or even born-here citizens, who also speak English, prefer to watch Spanish language TV and read Spanish language media. Until they are reached through effective Spanish language messaging many of these neighbors will simply ignore the elections. And Democrats have to make it clear that they take immigration policy seriously -- not by just opposing Republican policies, but by articulating their own -- as Beto has done.
And although immigration is a race issue for too many, it is mostly an economic issue and a fairness issue for others. This should all be addressed. Furthermore, distinction need to be made. Mexico is our bordering neighbor and has one set of immigration issues with us. Central America has other issues (some caused by our past foreign policies, some not).
It is important to make more distinctions.
"Hispanic" covers too broad a sweep of varied groups of people in the US. Hispanics on our border live in largely Spanish speaking, Mexico oriented communities. Hispanics elsewhere have very different experiences and interests -- just to mention one such distinction. Middle-class Hispanic families, with children hardly able to converse in Spanish if at all, have different perspectives than do poor Spanish-only families.
16
Perhaps part of the reason the democrats aren't doing as well with Hispanics is the same reason they continue to not get traction with many main stream voters. Hispanics, like many voters of every persuasion realize that the democratic platform of mass immigration, sanctuary cities, lax border enforcement, open door asylum policies, chain migration, catch and release, birthright citizenship, fighting any deportations, ever higher immigration numbers and on and on does not benefit them, the country, the environment or the economy. Hispanics who have come here legally, know that flooding the country with low skill workers with large families doesn't benefit them and crowded schools, packed ERs and ballooning welfare rolls like in California is not the way to prosperity for them any more than it is for the rest of the country. Democratic platforms that benefit Americans in general, rather than a craven attempt to import new voters would restore many people's faith in the party.
71
@Al Apart from whether Democrats support the policies that you attribute to them, surely you might recognize that birthright citizenship is not a policy. Or do the words of the Fourteenth Amendment and 150 years of settled law mean nothing? Mischaracterizing the nature of immigration in pursuit of partisan ends, demonizing the costs immigrants allegedly impose on our society, is the first barrier the GOP must overcome to be taken seriously by the vast majority of latinos.
15
@rdelrio. Of coarse, surely you know that the 14th amendment was put in place to protect the newly freed slaves, not to encourage illegal immigrants to get to this country and have a citizen child ASAP? The rest of the western world has seen birthright citizenship for what it is and with the exception of Canada and the u.s. gotten rid of it, as it is a magnet for illegal immigration and birth tourism. Same for cherry picking the econimic benefits of low wage and illegal immigrants. Conveniently left out are the costs of their citizen kids which are born by citizens (by definition low wage workers don't make much money). If unskilled, uneducated populations were a great idea, the countries we get most of our immigrants from would be economic paradise. They aren't.
15
@Al
Well said and I think an excellent summary of the problem with the Democrats today, and why despite their head scratching, so many people continue to support Trump and the Republicans.
I'm a lifetime Democrat and abhor Trump, but honestly, the direction in which the Democrats are going is alienating me from the party. The Democrats should be supporting the rights of working people and fairness to all groups, not the right of people to break the law.
13
I'm surprised to see some obvious reasons for lack of turn out mentioned here. Most striking is the fear Hispanics have of authority especially when just being Hispanic can get you reported to ICE whether or not you're a citizen. Second, poorly paid job holders don't have time to vote and are afraid of repercussions from employers who already exploit them to take time off to vote (if they can afford it financially) especially in jurisdictions with shorter hours. A side benefit of the Trump family separation policy is it scares even legal Hispanics from doing anything that might stir trouble including voting.
Second, Hispanics are predominantly Catholic. Catholicism is a conservative, top down authority belief system. It also still forbids abortion. The effect on politics of a conservative belief system runs deep and subtly. The analysis here of bare bones blacks, whites and Hispanics does not get into the Hispanic mind sufficiently to under stand much more than the surface.
The point that just reaching out to them as republicans did in Florida could be said of the DNC across the board. They only campaigned in run off states but for far too many, they heard squat from their candidates let alone feel included in the election. Where I am, I heard crickets. I read this paper just to find out what's going on because no one here speaks to us as democrats at all.
7
@no one special
"Catholicism is a conservative, top down authority belief system."
True. But here in the northeast at least, and i'd bet in the heartland manufacturing states as well, many Catholics are union Democrats. Still socially conservative, but still vote Dem as their unions back them.
"The point that just reaching out to them as republicans did in Florida could be said of the DNC across the board."
Bingo. Hillary Clinton was the poster child for this. So was Martha Coakley in my state. Scott Brown was a basically decent guy who went to the BBQs and shooke hands with the people. Coakley couldn't be bothered, it was too cold out and besides, Massachusetts votes Democratic anyway. Upshot of course is that she got us a Republican senator for awhile, and we still have a very decent Republican governor that she lost to when it was her turn for that office too.
2
Liberation theology did not begin in Rome.
Politicians need to rely more on having more Hispanic staff and less on polls. The Republicans have Hispanic Evangelical pastors actively recruiting votes. They are good at it. Evangelicals, who are more likely to vote because of the Republican operatives in their midst, are likely to espouse general conservative values: such as working hard and to be wary of the prominence given in recent years to gay marriage. So some former democrats left the party because they saw it having the same problems of society at large, rather than try to lift up society, which is often the message of Republicans.
Also, Hispanics, especially Evangelicals believe in hard work, and yet benefit fraud is rife in Washington Heights where I used to work, and working people, come to resent the party that gives handouts. Unemployed retired people have better health care benefits than retired people who worked hard all their lives. These
situations lead people to lose respect for Democratic party as a whole.
8
I'm surprised to see an article on the underwhelming enthusiasm for the Democratic Party among Hispanic voters and potential voters that doesn't even mention the abortion issue. I know several Hispanic Americans who are thoroughly disgusted by (and fearful of) President Trump and whose views and attitudes on most issues align with those of the Democratic Party but who simply cannot in good conscience vote for a party that not only is solidly pro-choice (or pro-abortion, if you will) but seems unwilling to tolerate the slightest dissent on that issue. A few party leaders, including Speaker Pelosi, seem to understand that the party can maintain its pro-choice stance while making room for Americans, including Hispanic Americans, who disagree. And a small but determined group of Democrats for Life is struggling to spread the word. But until the party leadership as a whole catches on, Hispanics are not the only Americans who share most Democratic values but feel unwelcome in - and therefore unenthusiastic about - the Democratic Party.
23
An employee I work with is Latina and legally immigrated to the United States from Paraguay. She is strongly against illegal immigration. She and her family worked hard and did all the things necessary for a legal immigration into the US. She is resentful of illegal immigration. I wouldn't assume that Latinos, or any other minority group, would not favor a candidate who takes a tough stand on immigration.
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@Jim
Yes. I have heard the same thing from many.
As someone who is Hispanic himself, I resent the notion that I would support this kind of cheating, which penalizes the honest.
19
@Jim
Yes, but it is important to draw a line between legal and illegal immigration. Someone who has been through the process will know that the legal immigration system is Kafkaesque and most will support making legal immigration easier even if they support cracking down on illegal immigration.
One of the Kafkaesque parts of the legal immigration system is that the US has the same size legal immigration quota for every country regardless of how big that country is. So people from small countries like Paraguay can come in right away but someone from Mexico or India might have to wait decades. Thus, it is good to talk to people from Paraguay, but they might have a more positive view of our system than people from larger countries (pro-immigration views could very well explain why Indian-Americans are one of the most Democratic-voting ethnicities despite also being one of the highest-income ethnicities, for example)
7
@Jim Paraguay--like Argentina and Chile-- has not had the same problems of unrest and proverty that more northern Latin American countries have had. These countries also are more like Spain.
2
I still don't understand.
I mean, thanks for this article, it took awhile to go through it and think about the figures, but still, I am really ignorant as to why Latinos vote Republican at all.
But then, I am a white voter in my 70's, and I don't even get why my demographic votes Republican, even the very low income folks.
There was a time America had a single culture, we had only a couple of tv shows that came over the air, and there were some shared values..people read the daily paper.
Now, we are a collection of economic sects, and less a single country than something resembling those small asteroids that, upon closer look, are just piles of rock held together by gravity.
Must be hard being a kid today and having a sense of belonging. I mean, belong to what, to what belief system, to what economic class?
Hugh
11
@Hugh Massengill Well, they can belong to the belief system that states all people are of equivalent inherent worth and deserving of the same basic rights and protections and that all people have the right to live as they choose so long as they don't interfere with someone else's right to do the same. You know, all that stuff in the constitution and the Bill of Rights. It might sound trite to some but these were and still are radical ideas that are on the defensive around the world and here at home. Perhaps that would be a good place for us to express our unity and common beliefs?
4
@Hugh Massengill
You answered your own question?
I think what we're missing here is an insight what drives the Hispanic vote. I don't believe it's a passion for or a dislike of a particular candidate or political party, but rather a vote for which candidate they believe will improve their lot in life. And when it appears neither candidate can fulfill that...
My read on declining Hispanic turnout is a sense of frustration over the fact that nothing really gets better for them, regardless of whether a Democrat or Republican sits in the White House.
There is no love for Trump; according to one Pew Center poll half of Latinos say their situation in the U.S. worsened over 2018. Nonetheless, I don't imagine they were overjoyed by things under Barack Obama for 8 years. This could be why Hillary garnered less of the Latino vote than Obama did in 2012.
So once you reach the rather pessimistic conclusion, as numerous Latinos may have, that to vote makes no difference, then the logical question is why take the time or make the effort ?
6
@JHM that's not really my experience with the older Hispanic generations who are more likely to vote.
My experience as Hispanic has been that many are Christians first and Conservative at that and so it clashes with many Dem. liberal ideals.
this outlines what republicans need to address to gain a larger share of the hispanic and asian vote. hopefully the republican party leadership reads this editorial. a reasonable number of hispanic and asians are established independent businessman and women who much better align with the republican party, except they are probably not generally aware of that perhaps because the republicans have not adequately reach out to them, and the overwhelmingly one sided bias in the news media that does not accurately describe the republican perspective.
7
Mr. Trump does like to insult Latinos. He also relentlessly insults Christians, Muslims, intelligent people, patriotic people, people who work for a living, and liberals. He insults his own supporters, and his own family. His respect for anyone seems defined by their utility to him, and it can disappear in an instant.
So while it seems crazy that 30 some percent of the Latino population supports the GOP, it seems even crazier that 50% of white people support Trump. It's beyond belief that any self-identified Christian would support him, or the Republican party.
Is it possible that these bizarre allegiances have, at least in part, the same explanation? Could the fact that politicians and the media relentlessly reduce people to ethnographic groups, and define policies & goals based on marketing to those groups, be part of the problem? If politicians & pundits talked about the freedoms & opportunities that all Americans should have, and the policies to protect those freedoms & create those opportunities, might our politics be more about what we want to accomplish, instead of about defining others & deciding what they deserve?
32
A few things. First, there are several different “Latino” electorates in the US with differing levels of political identity and participation. Second, there are cross-currents for socially conservative Latino voters in deciding to back Democrats in ways that are much more significant than the same cross-currents for socially conservative blacks. Third, those blocks of Latinos whose votes would most benefit Democrats require relatively more electoral engagement than the mean. But overall, Donald Trump definitely helps Democrats bring out that Latino vote where a more conventional Republican would not.
11
@Pierre
Most Cubans I know do not consider themselves to be "Hispanic," even when Spanish is their native language. Many do not self identify as Cuban, rather say they are "Spanish," tracing their roots to a Spanish province, like Galicia.
For years, they voted Republican en mass, tilting the national 2000, 2004 and 2016 Presidential elections.
2
Edsall raises an important question but avoids explicitly articulating the obvious observation which is that a large number of Hispanic voters don't buy into the identity politics mold favored by some in the party.
105
@David
If only the Democrats would realize this, and focus on policies that benefit everybody, rather than obsessing over identity politics and then wondering why more women or Hispanics or black people didn't turn out for Democrats.
Everyone needs health care, and a clean environment, and a strong economy and a good education. Support those things, along with basic fairness, and you'll have the support of every group.
57
@David
Somebody said it. Bravo.
Unfortunately, it seems like a good portion of the white base increasingly loves to tie themselves in knots over identity deconstructions and will be fighting unasked-for culture wars for ethnic communities.
10
@Josh Hill give me a break, the GOP plays (White) identity politics much more than the Dems do. They’ve even dropped the dog whistles they used to use.
2
Thank you for this Op Ed. I've been yakking on this point to anyone who gives me 1/2 an ear since the election. How is it possible that Trump's share of the Latino vote in 2016 was more or less the same as Romney's?
Both Democrats and Republicans make the assumption that all Latinos are natural Democrats. But, in fact, many are quite conservative in family values, economics and politics. This holds true even on, especially on, the issue of illegal immigration.
Like the vast majority of all other American citizens, Latino Americans favor legal immigration (people should wait in line) and also want enforcement of our borders.
If Republicans could drop the racist rhetoric and advocate a genuinely humane but tough policy at the southern
border... and Democrats continue to move ever further left on economics and immigration, post-Trump Republicans might even break 50% of the Latino vote.
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@Mike Marks
...and then Republicans could stop trying to suppress the vote. End the need for voter suppression by ending racism. Imagine that.
4
This article does not address the main question which is what are the issues which affect the latino vote. And of course latinos are not in any way one group. They come from many countries and different cultures and thus probably differ as to what issues are important. Very disappointing article
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@rationality
I agree. It does not address the issue of abortion either. For many religious catholics that may be the deciding factor, as it is with a significant proportion of the electorate generally. It is a very superficial list of statistics that answers nothing.
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@rationality
Just another example of the Democratic Party's simplistic way of thinking that voters vote their ethnic identity.
1
@rationality Good comment. Latinos are very diverse in race, country of origin, level of education, culture, etc. Even within Mexican Latinos there are huge differences (I am not Mexican, but Venezuelan living in CA and I have many Mexican friends). Some are extremely religious and abortion is the only issue that matters (I have Mexican friends in CA that voted for Trump because abortion for them was more important than anything else). Many Venezuelan-Americans will vote for Trump (even if they hate him) because they feel that there is a chance of US going to Venezuela to take out Maduro with Trump president, and zero chance with a Democrat president (this can make an important difference in Florida where there are over 250,000 Venezuelan-American that can vote). At the same time Puerto Ricans living in Florida will vote against Trump, even if culturally they are very close to Venezuelans-Americans. The complexity of the Latino vote is much larger than that of the African-American vote.
2
It would certainly seem--and more than just "on paper"--that the Democratic Party can rely on the Latino vote going forward and perhaps cement their political participation with as much zeal as African-Americans have demonstrated since the 1950's. But one of the sticking points for Latinos' being all-in against Republicans in general and Donald Trump in particular has been, as stated in this article, a historical affinity with this group of voters for Republican policies and social outlook.
Perhaps the influx of Cuban refugees from the 1960's might be illustrative here. Fleeing Communism and the Castro takeover of the island, they arrived in Florida (for the most part) and established a beachhead that was perfectly designed to dovetail with Republican viewpoints. They hated Castro and his anti-freedom populism. Many lost property and fortunes in Cuba and worked assiduously to rebuild their lives in their new country. No barriers to their formal immigration aided immeasurably in their assimilation. They assumed hard-right, conservative viewpoints: anti-integration, anti-government handouts to others, e.g. And, to their credit, Republicans, a minority party nationally, accepted them as equals. Also, the Cubans who were admitted to America and prospered were largely white. The GOP winked at that with them. And these new arrivals considered themselves white. Look no further than Marco Rubio or Alex Castellanos and their smirking, anti-black postures.
Can Latinos trust the GOP?
21
@Red Sox, ‘04, ‘07, ‘13, ‘18 I've been fascinated by some research showing that half of Hispanics identify as white. This may have been among American-born.
2
@Red Sox, ‘04, ‘07, ‘13, ‘18 I think there's a culture issue going on here, which Democrats don't understand. Also, I am white and have always considered Latinos white.
4
@John Stewart I am American born non hispanic with conservative Anglo parents, and I have always considered Hispanics white, as did my parents. They (parents) were aware of possible religious differences, but didn't consider that a negative, necessarily.