At least we’ll have plenty of soybeans that no one else wants!
6
When the economy starts tanking, will Trump disciples start eating their own words to stave off the hunger?
10
Deregulation is good 4sure
Interestingly: The current economic conditions in the US are a direct product of the hard work of the Obama administration.
Trumps tax cut will have a dramatic effect on the economy as the tax revenues from all of the people that he cut taxes for (rich billionaires and mega-corporations) will mean that the middle class will pick up the difference with higher taxes. Trump along with Wilbur Ross and Steve Mnuchin have taken away many of the standard deductions that middle class tax payers enjoyed. The net effect - higher taxes. Thank you President Trump.
So, when the US economy goes to hell at least the American people will know who to blame. Cause we know that Trump will blame everyone else. He will not take any responsibility for his mindless policies.
His next effort will be to eliminate health care in the United States. He does not have a plan for health care other than to wipe out health care for the poor. Oddly, they are the same people who voted for Trump. Sadly they do not understand the health care system and the complexities other than knowing it is expensive. This is the best argument for universal health care in the United States. It works very well here in Canada.
Think very careful about who and what you are voting for in 2020. Understand the issues. Make sure that the candidates have actual policy proposals; not just useless slogans like MAGA.
13
How could anyone in his or her right mind trust the US economy to a serial bankrupt, money laundering, failed realtor/developer, phony tv “businessman”, and Mafia reject now posing as president?
11
When Trump ,"kill's" my health insurance what is next? Trips to the emergency rooms of the nearest hospital? If he has a plan where is it? He is all talk, "where's the beer"? Why is he trying to erase Obama's terms of office? Why does Mitch McConnell send his State all the fat and other States get the lean?
Think about it. the
4
Democrats promise to change Obamacare as we know it. Those changes will also affect pre existing conditions. So far they have not provided details about what will be covered and how to pay for it.
I and the majority of Americans would agree, but everyone knows when anything goes wrong in trump land, its never his fault, he will find someone(s) to blame, maybe another deceased person like the late Senator McCain. trump's lying and blame game are normal functions of his every day life.
4
This serial maker of bankruptcies may soon own the biggest one of all. But we may get lucky with a mere Recession before 2020 and the chance to be rid of his parasite of a man.
Of course, come the slump, he'll blame everyone but himself. He'll save his tantrums for the Democrats and his own Fed Chairman.
Then we'll show him the door.
6
We know how Trump does business. He does business, others pick up the tab.
3
But won't this lower wages, boosting the economy?
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/03/28/world/americas/ap-lt-migrant-caravan.html
Trump had a predilection for foreign construction workers. 'Many worked 14 hour days for years, submitting to threats of financial ruin to their families or threats of violence.'
https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/former-chinese-diplomat-and-head-us-operations-chinese-construction-business-convicted
Until a decade ago, each American economic boom was ended by OPEC, making oil expensive, which plunged the US into a recession. Now, due to President Trump policies, the US is the greatest energy producer in the world, and a net energy exporter. An envy for the rest of the world, in a time when production can be automated, but the energy needed cannot be avoided.
We are no longer at the whims of the Middle East, Venezuela or Iran on energy. After a decade of stagnation and decay, according to the OMB, the real wages of the middle class are finally rising. Unemployment in every gender or ethnic group is at an all time low.
So who can now create the recession, with millions unemployed, shelters and soup kitchens, so as to do the needed change of course?
It can only come from the inside, and it is the Green New Deal.
3
Interesting that most Autocrats, when they finally achieve power, take apart the system that got them elected and rapidly give away whatever riches there are to friends and family as they ruin the countries they govern. Unfortunately, getting rid of them is never easy. Look at Venezuela. Hopefully, Trump will have angered enough of his base that they see the light and insist on impeachment.
1
You can be sure when it collapses he'll find some falsehood he can use to blame the Democrats for it. His base will eat it up, and the Democrats won't have an answer for it even though it will obviously be based on a lie.
But it's going to collapse and the signs are already there.
3
If Brexit had been completed soon after the vote for it we'd be seeing the negative economic consequences there affecting our economy here by now. I wish they would get it done already. I believe the ones dragging it out know how bad it will be and in fact are doing everything they can to help Donald.
If you refer to the BEA's news release today (28/3/19), you find:
"2018 GDP
Real GDP increased 2.9 percent in 2018 (from the 2017 annual level to the 2018 annual level)"
That is not an "alternative measure of full-year growth". That is THE measure of RGDP growth that is routinely reported in all financial and economics reporting.
The Q to Q reading you quoted, 3% (previously 3.1%), is relatively obscure. It showed up in reporting after the Feb BEA news release that made it clear that Trump would not be able to break 3% for 2018. His minions, grasping at straws, saw the Q to Q reading at the bottom of the news release and jumped on it.
The fact is that Trump promised 4-6% GDP annual growth, and he has failed to reach even 3%.
3
There's nothing specific you can point to that Trump has done that has helped US economy. Trump has not managed to derail the Obama recovery from the GOP Great Recession. What has Trump don to own current economy though?
1. GOP tax cut for the rich created $1T in deficits and adds significantly to national debt and income inequality but these don't get reflected in current economy on the downside until debt becomes a problem.
2. GOP tariffs, these are raising prices on US products that use steel and hurting ag. exporting sectors but not a big economic effect, more localized.
3. Lax Wall St enforcement. This is what caused the Bush II Great Recession. Some safeguards were put in but certainly the risk for another Wall St financial crash like GOP Great Recession is higher with less regulation.
If we get a Great Recession 2.0 from following the same Wall St dereg, same massive deficits and debt then Trump can own it.
2
Yes, yes he does. And the economy is not the stock market, GDP, interest rates or any of that. It is people working and having jobs, having opportunities to get better jobs, having opportunity to get paid more. All those things have been increasing, now we need training to allow those with capability to move up, a large reduction in illegals taking jobs, and a conversion of our economy from consumption to creation.
1
What Trump doesn't seem to understand is that his policies and decisions are what will bring a rising economy, established under Obama, to crash and burn. The usual lag time is two years, so the next two years should be fun for the fun loving Trump show admirers.
7
Fifty six percent of children would approve a diet of jelly donuts and jelly beans. Fifty six percent of adults would approve a lifestyle that costs twice their income. Neither is sustainable.
We are eating our seed corn. Consequences will come someday. If it's after the 2020 election, Trump will probably have bought a second term. But he will have bought it with our children's money.
9
“The commerce department said on Thursday that the US expanded at an annual rate of 2.2% in the last three months of the year, down from an initial estimate of 2.6% and below the 3.4% growth achieved in the previous three months.
The figure is well below the 5% growth rate that Donald Trump recently forecast and comes as evidence is mounting of a slowdown in other major markets including the eurozone and China.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/28/us-economic-outlook-darkens-as-late-2018-growth-figures-revised-down
2
So long as Trump is free to stimulate the economy with military spending he will be ok. If he prevented from doing this then he will have a day of reckoning. Too bad the Democrats are so hooked on the Mueller Report and distracted from proposing alternatives to military.
1
It is difficult if not impossible for US economy to sustain at GDP 3% or above for the following observations.
1. China's growth contributes approximately 30% of the global economic growth for the past decades. It is slowing down in GDP to 6-7% internally along with trade war with US.
2. Europe economy is also contracting and in particular Brexit added to the turmoil.
3. Many of the US top 500 Fortune companies such Catapilar, Ford, GM, Apple, Boeing etc, their revenue from oversea are ranged from 30-50%. If the global economy slows down, so is their revenue.
4. Sixty to seventy percent of US economy are consumption. The last quarter 2018 GDP revised down to 2.6% partly because of less spending from consumers. As the middle class continues to be squeezed by tax policy just as the $ 1 trillion tax cut favor the top 1 %, consumption will be negatively affected.
5. The assess of the top 3 billionaires in US are equal to the total bottom half combined in this country. I do not think trickle down economic is working as the concentration of wealth to the top continues since for the past 30-40 years.
7
Actually, no. Trump no longer owns the US economy. From the perspective of this Independent, the ownership of the economy is shared between Trump and the House of Representatives. To all whose heads are not in the sand, the Democratic Party wants to defeat Trump in 2020 at all costs, or any cost. It is not in the interest of Democrats if Trump gets any foreign policy or domestic victories that might enhance their chances of recovering the White House. Just common sense, dear readers. The major thing that he has going for him is the economy. Thus, the economy must droop, and the stock market must drop. Now, we know that Trump is his own worst enemy, and he will fall into any trap laid for him. So, he will compound any obstruction that the Democrats introduce. Like most people, I've a 401k. And, I am fearful. The market dance since the November elections also show that this scenario is out there. Beware. Look at what the House of Representatives is doing now, and see if the economy and the market are answering positively. No. Gee, this sounds like a Republican. No, I am really not. And, the Republicans are apparently too head in the sand to see this. I am just someone who is disappointed with BOTH parties.
1
A president gets and takes too much credit when the economy is strong and gets blamed too much when it is weak. So you don’t think Obama would be be crowing about this economy if he were in office? Trump would be pilloried had the economy gone south in his presidency. You just don’t want to give the man ANY positive credit whatsoever.
7
It was President Obama who laid the foundation to the booming economy Trump claims to be his success. And it was President Obama who inherited a completely bust economy (and at least one completely unjust war) from his republican predecessor, George W. Bush, and the malicious people-hating gang (Cheney, Rumsfeld, et al.) he was surrounded and controlled by.
8
@NYTpicker Hmm. This means that the Tax Measure passed by the Congress had absolutely no effect. It also means that the NY Times is wrong. The only thing influencing our economy is the economic policy of an Administration that has been out of office for more than two years. Hmm. And, the trade issues of NAFTA, the negotiations with China and the trade wars with China have also had no effect. Hmm. Well, three people recommend your opinion. Hmm.
2
Nice headline. Now that the GDP has fallen, the Times headline writers have decided that maybe this economy thing will pay off better than the Russian collusion thing did. Get Trump, whatever it takes. Is there no one, not one person with authority and integrity who will require headlines of news stories to be objective and not editorials?
6
@ehillesum - so, the headline is wrong? If he, or anyone else thinks he should get credit then they should also accept responsibility for any shortcomings or failures. Mr Trump and his herd of lemmings seem to think otherwise. Yes, we all are getting weary of soooo much "winning"
1
Trump owes more than he owns.
3
@Blue in Green So does most of America.
1
The economy is easier to manage when you just rack up debt for our children. And did those children get any of those bridges, roads, or dams that were promised by Trump?
8
Obama added trillions in debt. Democrats understand well how to spend our children’s money.
5
@Richard Winchester: truth is both sides have added trillions to include trump and his cronies. but trump is the one who has made more in-kept promises than past White House dwellers, plus making him self and other 1% percent friends much richer in the process. Funny didn't the republicans always call themselves the conservative party, not under trump.
We are headed for a crash because you cannot run an on tax cuts for the 1%. Unfortunately it will take a while for the truth to set in, and by that time Trump will be gone and the Democrats will be blamed.
14
@Georgia L
Well, Gerogia, you can't cut taxes on 51% of the people because they pay no taxes. [Social Security is not a tax that contributes to running the federal government.] Romney pointed that out and people laughed at this fact. We need to know that no other free country has a system where people actually pay NO national income taxes. Now, that leaves 49% of the people who actually pay taxes. Of those, the super-rich pay no taxes either. Warren Buffett, for example, pays less than I do. Sooo, that leaves the middle class and the upper middle class, all of whom pay all of the taxes the federal government collects. Most of them got a tax cut. But, most Americans didn't - because they are not paying taxes. Maybe we should fix this so that everybody pays something. Even then, though, the economy rebounded significantly when the bill was passed. There must have been something in it that worked. For example, jobs. If you have no job, you don't get a tax cut, because you are not paying taxes. If you have a job, you might pay taxes. Now, there are more people who have jobs. That is a result of the tax cut. Hmm. Having a job is better than being unemployed and not getting a tax cut. Hmm.
1
The headline on this article sums up everything that is wrong with political coverage today. There is a direct connection between media hyperfocus on the President as the most influential figure in the country and the terrifying advance toward authoritarian rule we have lately embarked upon. Many factors shape the economy's performance. Presidents are held accountable for the results, sometimes fairly, sometimes not. But that is not the same as "ownership," and it is also an error in focus. If any individuals could be cited as responsible for this economy, one might suggest Bernanke and Obama, whose intelligent efforts helped put the 2008-09 financial crisis behind us.
6
@Owen: trump continues to claim ownership of the economy, by his own choosing. I agree trump came when the economy was going upward, and while we don't know if his tax cuts will eventually cause it go backwards in the near future, time will tell. either way if its good he will claim ownership, when it goes south, he will point fingers at anyone but himself.
There would have been a strong great sustainable economy if any 2017 any US president had shown good leadership qualities and 1) addressed the issue of credit in the EM minimizing the economic downturn which was severely increased by the fear caused by trump’s behaviour; 2) Used the TPP and the traditional allies of the US and the WTO to put economic diplomatic pressure on China; and 3) and Enabled the ability of the great US businesses to be the world leader in renewable energy instead of using tax payer money to prop up the failing coal industry
2
A recession is coming and he won't be able to blame Hillary or Obama for it.
6
I've think I've forgotten what it's like to read about what is or isn't as opposed to always now about what it's predicted to be. After Hillary's predicted victory one would think we might have learned something. With regard to predictions sometimes Trump scares me, for better or worse.
At the current run rate of -$234B/mo, Donald Trump will have added $7T to the national debt by the end of FY2021...Doing that while at supposed 'full employment' is just bad management. An inability to manage expenses explains how he bankrupted his casino corporation, isn't it? How else do you lose money in a business where the rake is built in?
How many times do we need to see him fail in the same way?
10
I pulled most of my investments out of the market a year ago. The Trump economy has not been good for the market.
1
Economic theory needs some new data points. Here they come. If the rich get a little richer or poorer they will still be very rich. It is the intentional imbalancing of world economies by these voter backed Republicans that will take decades to understand. Eleven years after the global financial crash of 2008-2009 many countries worldwide still have less money available for their infrastructure capital and basic needs than prior to 2008. I believe the mass migrations we see today have root in the financial weakening of already poor countries caused by the 2008 crash. Someday could we try to strengthen ourselves by not weakening others?
2
A yield curve inversion often precedes a recession. The yield curve is inverted now, with 10 year treasury bond yields lower than 3 month yields.
One would hope that there would be an economic A Team to help manage the economy. Instead, Trump's economic team has the likes of Larry Kudlow, famous for being wrong repeatedly and not acknowledging that ignorance. His trade czar is Peter Navarro, who was selected to reinforce Trump's views on trade, rather than offer informed advice. Now he wants to nominate Stephen Moore to the Fed. Moore is also a believer in the magic of tax cuts despite evidence to the contrary, mangles facts so badly that a newspaper in Kansas City refuses to publish his articles, and seems to take the position of whatever is best for the Republican Party (such as being a deficit hawk when Obama proposed stimulus, but not worrying about deficits from the Trump tax cuts).
3
@DBman
Yes. You see the exact same thing I see. We're heading for a recession, sustaining at this level is not feasible. I see recently the major financial investment firms are coming out and saying this inverted yield curve is different, not like the last 5 inverted yield curves that preceded a recession. I have no crystal ball, and neither do they, but historical evidence tells me something is amiss. Sustaining corporate profits while customers are making less money can only go so far. Mr. Trump has a financial history himself, combine the two histories ( Trump Inc. & Inverted yield curve), it begins to look very much like we are heading to some form of financial hibernation sooner than later.
1
This is a good article.
The problem I have with the general public associating any economic performance with a sitting president (short term) is that it is just plain wrong (although of course it’s convenient to do).
GW Bush was not responsible for the great recession anymore than Obama was responsible for our painful recovery from it. They both did their best to mitigate something that (at that point) was largely beyond anyone’s control.
Loose financial regulations, reckless actions on Wall Street coupled with unscrupulous lenders all conspired over the course of a decade to give us this collapse.
The US economy is the largest in the world. Presidents have very little control over the millions of parts that comprise it and more importantly, the historical momentum behind it. They can help it along 10-20 years in the future with wise policies. I see no evidence Trump is doing that.
So, at this point Trump has *at best* given a slight boost to an already humming economy when he took office. But this is at the cost of borrowing 2 Trillion dollars.
A president can certainly fail to respond to crises appropriately (think Hoover or Carter) or take ill-advised actions that make the economy worse. I actually think Trump is in this latter category since he really had no idea what he’s doing.
We actually have a record here: He has a long history of lying about his assets and abilities to get loans that he later defaults on.
2
@Michael, republican deregulation permitted housing and financial fraud on a massive global level, make no mistake. And they'll do it again, and worse, if we let them.
1
No. The bond market is the owner.
Right now the deficit is not sustainable. Soon higher interest rates on federal debt.
Donald flunked economics.
5
Since most of the sham tax cut went into stock buybacks, essentially Trump took $1.5 trillion out of the treasury and used it to buy stocks. Sort of like putting the US taxpayer on margin. It gave the market a brief sugar high, though now, generally, they (we) over payed for the shares and are underwater. A recession is probably 1-2 years away, and will hit just as the tax bill is due, already forcing us to raise taxes on some (SALT) and eventually to cut benefits for all going into a recession. Trump SHOULD own it; Trumponomics.
2
just what we need. another recession. bring it on IT. I'll be fine. not sure about that 1 percent that uou made richer. you think they're giving higher wages. not likely. they sit and count their pennies.who cares about the middle class.? NOT THE GOP.They want to take your health care,oh but thet have a plan. been 10 years in the making, let's see some results and not cheap words
1
Donny Flim Flam actually owning a downside? Not going to happen. - C
1
Be assured that, should the economy recede or tank by the election, it will NOT be Trump’s fault. He will take credit for all that is good, due to his singular superiority, but any bad things will be someone else’s fault, and will be widely and loudly noted as such by the orange bluster.
In the photo accompanying this article, the two surrounding Trump appear as if they would rather be anywhere than where they are.
2
Are we talking about the same Trump whose businesses are monetary failures, who gets others to make up numbers for him so he can cheat on his taxes, the same Trump who had to rely on money from his father his entire life in order to pretend to be the savvy business man his father was and he isn't? The same Trump who still has not released his tax returns to the public and clearly never will? The same Trump whose sole success rests on being a reality TV star? The same Trump whose most loyal personal/fixer is going to jail for doing his bidding?
And that's the guy who's going to save our economy?
Please, give me something serious to read on a Thursday morning. If the economy doesn't crash it will be in spite of, not because.
3
Whatever happens we are in good hands. Even if the economy goes south we have someone with plenty of experience in bankruptcy leading us.
6
So president Trump was right all along and all the super smart economists at the Fed were wrong.
The Fed raised rates prematurely just as the economy was starting to decelerate.
And he still gets no credit from the NYT and its readers.
Amazing.
2
Foreign countries are stealing our technology dumping their products in America, putting huge Tariffs on imported American products and till Mr. Trump came along, not much was in the public eye.
Mr Trump is fighting to protect America's interests.
Whether he has the right or wrong approach I don't know but i will tell you to spend some time and see where the growth is in the world today and you will quickly realize how much competition America faces.
After WW2 America was the light and hope for all of humanity. What is out there now is very scary.
@JBT
Trump is decades late on fixing the technology transfer issue...it started in the 80s and embraced by most as it produced higher profits--and did n't care about the growing trade deficits.
The current blunderbuss approach from Trump is breaking established trade practices and trade partners without any thought of the consequences. It will make those partners seek other avenues.
1
@JBT, do you actually know anything about Trump? Really, look at his life and acts and then try to believe anyone's best interests but his have ever motivated him.
1
If I were the President today, the economy would have performed at the same level. And I can assure you, I am not Presidential material...
1
It is a good thing that the US doesn't export anything; we certainly won't be affected if China and Europe slow down. America will be great in spite of them.
1
@qisl
Except for farmers...they export tons....literally.
Where will YOU be when the recession starts?
Plan accordingly.
1
As long as the economy was cooking along in the first two years of the historic Trump administration, liberals claimed that it was due to Obama. Now that it is cooling down a little it is Trump's economy. No, it has been Trump's economy ever since Obama left office. Under Obama, people had no incentive to work, as demonstrated by the record number of people who chose not to participate in the economy, a statistic that includes people seeking jobs. Obama epitomized living off the dole. Trump, one of the most successful businessmen in the history of business, inspired people to work, to seek employment, to take personal responsibility. That's what America is all about, putting in honest day's work and taking personal responsibility for one's self and family. Makes you proud to be an American! I support the President. I support Trump. America First! MAGA! Thank you.
1
Trump hasn't put in a single day of honest work in his entire life.
3
@Southern Boy
With disruptive tariffs, trashing trade agreements and trading partners, Trump is causing the economic problems. Obama had fixed the economy and lowered deficits...now that is reversing. Why anyone would think more debt and deficits are good is mind boggling--but a guaranteed trait of any GOP economic package for the last 40 years.
@Southern Boy "Trump, one of the most successful businessmen in the history of business, inspired people to work, to seek employment, to take personal responsibility"
I don't know which part is more hilarious, claiming that Trump is one of the most successful businessmen ever, or that he has been a role model to inspire people to work or to take personal responsibility for ANYTHING.
That man has not put in an honest day's work in his life and is now purposefully taking healthcare and everything else he can away from the people who have.
That was an impressive spin though, thanks for the laugh.
2
Since 1960, average annual GDP growth is a sliver over 3%. Thus, Trump's results for 2018 are very ordinary. There is no "economic miracle" and no "turnaround." GDP is controlled largely by workers, hours worked, and productivity per worker-hour. These do not change markedly overnight, and it is foolish to think that a Trump loyalist on the Fed's Board of Governors, or even the Fed's interest rate policies alone, regardless, can yield 4% annual GDP growth. This is a case of an economically illiterate President who pursues foolish policies (such as trade wars, deficit-financed tax cuts) and wishful thinking due to his own lack of knowledge or willingness to learn about policy. The sycophants he has surrounded himself with do not help.
3
Please, Trump will blame a failing economy on Mother Teresa and the silly news media and talk show pundits will debate its validity.
2
Uh, oh. Does this mean the economy shows signs of slowing? If it was still roaring, you could be sure the NYT including Krugman would claim it's still Obama's economy.
2
The Dems and their backers will claim foul, will dedicate pages, hours to this.
Then at the end it will turn out that there was nothing new.
Except the Dems will loose even more credibility, time and voters.
Keep it up Dems, you sure are helping the reelection go smooth as silk.
2
I think there is a parenthetical that was intended to be added to this headline. It should say "Trump Owns the Economy Now, for Better or Worse (Unless the Economy Should Stay in its Present Phenomenal Shape, in Which Case, "Thanks Obama")."
Also, query this: is a statement about who "owns" the economy a statement of fact or a statement of opinion? If it's the latter (which it is) then why is this article a front page "news" story instead of a back page op/ed? Fake News!
1
Yes, exactly, Jim, faux-Emperor Trumpius certainly owns this first in history Disguised Global crony Capitalist EMPIRE.
3
Would you TRUST trump with YOUR money?
2
Would you TRUST trump with YOUR money?
@John, I wouldn't trust Trump with your money.
1
Kevin Hassett's reference to Twinkies is disgusting and demonic. Next thing these irresponsible spongeroma predators claim would Twinkies defense. NYC has become a Cannibalistic community and rat infested.
Right now, the bond market is saying that a significant slowdown is coming. Forget the question of whether the yield curve is inverted or whether it is inverted enough to be a recession signal. The story is that long-term yields have dropped substantially and very quickly. That is a definite signal that many investors are running for cover.
3
Since much of the economy is driven by consumer spending, the effects of the Trump tax policy are likely to harm future growth as so many of the middle class consumer/spenders have seen significant tax increases. Therefore, money that could have spent on a new car or other major purchase will have to be set aside to cover the increased tax bill. Along with the global depression due to the tariffs, any significant decline in consumer demand will continue to depress growth. We may have more than a bumpy ride ahead due to unforeseen consequences of the changes in tax policy and the long term effects of the trade/tariff wars.
1
Big numbers/Small numbers. Perception of small numbers can sometimes lead to an incorrect implication of small consequences. WH economist Kevin Hassett's numbers appear to present a small difference compared to the FOMC (and most other reputable independent economists' numbers), 3.0/3.1 vs 1.9/2.0 for projected GDP growth. On the denominator that difference is a whopping 50%. The consensus seems to favor the lower number, the higher number probably an significant exaggeration. However, economics is not science, nor is the scientific method requiring replicability and predictability (let alone supporting data) ever a concern to political economists. Beware those virtually meaningless numbers.
1
No President owns the economy.
As Lincoln once noted, "I feel as though I am more controlled by events than controlling them."
Obama's team likely rescued the economy in the crisis of 2008, but after that, the effects of the Fed, taxes, whatever you point to are just tossing pebbles into a torrent coming down the mountain. Decisions by businessmen, consumers, students, families aggregate to drive that huge flood we call an economy.
Trump deserves no credit for success of an economy which flows on despite his own best efforts to wreck it with tariffs and tax cuts for the rich.
2
China, the EU, and the Rest of the world have been stalling, waiting on the Mueller report.
Expect trade deals, Expect More Manufacturing, as well as other associated things.
By 2020 you again will see more GDP Results. As it is now, there are 1 Million More jobs than The total number of people looking for work
4
@didyouconsider Very arrogant to think the World was waiting on the Mueller report to do more business with America. Trump has no idea how to run an economy; current plan is the Kansas model. The World and America are tied together as economies. Economy in EU is faltering;signs of collapse are showing up here. Campaign rallies and making Liberals cry will not change that.
4
And what kind of jobs? Flipping burgers or part time low wage employment so the employers don’t have to cover healthcare?
2
China could less about the Mueller report. You are projecting.
1
I went to Locust Valley, NY where the rich and powerful live in mansions and nearby their golf clubs. I was surprised to see the number of stores shuttered with For Lease signs. Yes, small businesses and ones that enjoyed the support of the people living there until now. For such a small town, the number of stores closed represents a deep downward turn. And I would think that if the wealthiest among us can not keep their local businesses afloat, what is happening in the rest of America?
In my hometown, also small, the same stores remain empty as back in November 2016. There has been no new investment whatsoever. And the increase in my taxes means that my spending will not be increasing any time soon.
I am just an average consumer with no real understanding of economic policy. But I do see the main streets and malls and I an witnessing more store closings everywhere I go since this past fall.
So what's really going on?
9
@Elizabeth People are making purchases online, that's what's happening.
2
@Petunia yeah but even online shopping is beginning to slow.
The tax cuts have already run their course yielding a small bump in GDP at the cost of huge increased in deficits--and certainly not the Trump promise as just about everyone expected. So, not really a good idea and there is not much left in the fiscal stimulus bag to correct any future recessions. And additional jabs at the world economy are not helping.
Trump also continues to disrupt trade with random tariffs and tariff threats which will likely lead to more salient problems in time. China is not going to roll over to Trump’s demands and any agreement may be over a year away. Don’t read the headlines on such.
Trump continues to ask the middle east oil producers to continue to pump more oil—but it is a double edge sword. He doesn’t realize this is a problem for the fracking industry since it needs higher prices to cover higher costs and make a profit…which has eluded the industry so far. If oil prices drop significantly, it will disrupt a large part of the economy that needs revenue…constantly. (so much for the US being an energy giant.)
Ballooning debts across essentially every segment of the planet’s economy should be something to fix, not enhance.
3
Perhaps those complaining about paying higher taxes should do either one of two things:
1. Move to a low income tax state (or zero income tax in my case), or,
2. Stop voting for Democrats in their states. All they want to do is raise taxes. Mostly on the rich.
6
My federal taxes were raised by Republicans, not Democrats, through reforms targeting states with few Republican senators or congressman and so with little possible risk for the GOP. Yet they lack the courage to “own” this tax increase, instead blaming Democrats at the state and local levels. Taxes are higher in coastal blue states than elsewhere in part due to higher cost of living. Even if they wanted to, localities in New Jersey could not pay police the salaries police receive in Alabama. Another contributor is the blue states’ greater investment in public education. Strong schools are widely acknowledged to contribute to economic growth, but, particularly in the Confederacy, public education is a low priority, and in fact these states rely on low wages and taxes to stimulate growth. They’ve done so for decades, yet seem to have little to show for it. It’s an odd talking point among Republicans that certain tax deductions have subsidized blue states at the expense of red states. In fact, of the 10 states most dependent on federal funding, 9 went for Trump in the last election. New Jersey ranked 48th in dependence on federal funds. People in our state pay the most and get the least.
8
@Tamar - Sure. Move to a red state utopia like Kansas and see how well that works out.
3
@Tamar
If the tourism dries up, your taxes will be increased. The money has to come from somewhere.
But many of the blue states would simply do much better if they received higher funding levels from the federal government. Perhaps the many red states receiving who are receiving more than $1 for every dollar sent to the feds, should just refuse the federal funding, and return it to the blue states who subsidize them?
3
The myth that Presidents have much sway over the economy if just that — a myth. Unless they start a war or do something dramatic to restore confidence in a major crisis (like TARP), their economic influence on America is about as real as unicorns and leprechauns.
@BrainThink - Fascinating. So there was no link between W's two wars on the credit card and the great recession? So glad you cleared that up for us.
1
"... U.S. GDP growth will slow to 2.1% in 2019 from 3% in 2018. It will be 1.9% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021. That's according to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 21, 2019. The projected slowdown in 2019 and beyond is a side effect of the trade war, a key component of Trump's economic policies. ..."
https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669
2
I guess I could be living large were I to max out all the debt opportunities I have, the only way individuals like myself can "print" money. But I'd rather not tank my long-term economy with acts of folly like last year's tax cuts. I don't need a ballooning personal deficit.
2
Interest rates on federal debt are now inverted, that is, short term interest rates are now higher than long term rates, out to ten years. In the past 60 years that state has preceded every recession the U.S. economy has suffered. Probably not as bad as 2007-2009, but bad, and this time debt used to finance automobile purchases and leases will be front and center, rather than real estate, since it is that debt that has been converted to CDOs (collateralized debt obligations). Automobile repossessions will skyrocket, and are already beginning to creep up. Michael Lewis, "The Big Short", will get to write another best seller, and Trump will own it.
The Fed raised interest rates four times, in 1/4 point increments, that's 1% in a year. Man, if that is enough to tank the U.S. economy, it is incredibly fragile. Well, it is fragile, but not because of the Fed. It's fragile because of the incredibly stupid policies of that man in the W.H.
8
Unfortunately,there have been too many experts that have been predicting all kinds of disaster for Trump ever since he was elected ! This seems to be a case of supply meeting the demand !
4
I must differ with the assertion of the headline. Mr. Trump never in his life has taken responsibility for the consequences of his actions. He deliberately shifts the blame or refuses to perform as he has agreed when the consequences of his acts prove to be poor. When there is nothing for him to have to do he simply claims the greatest success in history regardless of what really happened. When he realizes a success it’s greater than the Moon landings. The people of the U.S. are going to be responsible for his acts, never he.
Nobody likes to ponder the significance of four bankruptcies and well over 3,000 lawsuits over his businesses failures to perform as agreed. What it indicates is that Trump intends to address the possibility that his endeavors going wrong by refusing to accept responsibility for the losses that should clearly have been anticipated.
This man has the habits of a lifetime of escaping his responsibilities. Trump can and likely will offer economic policies that risk debt, loss of credit worthiness, and inability to maintain public infrastructure and services obstacles to all but the super wealthy to prosper.
His lack of concern over the consequences of his acts presents a big challenge for all of us. He’d leave the country in an economic mess and it would not bother his conscience.
6
Funny. A few months ago, President Obama "owned" the good economy. Now that you predict it will go down, Trump "owns" it. As for SALT deductions - all you people living in New York have been skating on your federal taxes for years at the expense of lower-tax states. Now it's finally fair. Don't like high taxes - speak to your state legislature.
5
@PeteR
It is actually the reverse...low tax states have been mooching off higher tax states.
3
@PeteR - "Funny. A few months ago, President Obama "owned" the good economy. "
Did you read the article? Trump inherited a very good economy, and there are now new policies that have been in place for a while.
When do you think Trump's policies took effect, and if the economy tanks, who should get the blame? Obama?
3
Reading a lot of nonsense here. The tax cuts are so large it would be nigh impossible not to have robust growth for a few years. Who is paying are future generations and Trump has ZERO concern about anyone beyond the 2020 election.
4
It should be noted that the improving economy, lowering unemployment, rising stock market, etc were well underway in the last 5 years of the Obama admin. That they continued in the first 2 years of Trump is just momentum. The economy is largely a result of what has been done in the previous 2-3-4 years.
Now the experts are forecasting slowdown, while Trump and a few allies are denying it. Trump, who is sure he knows more about ISIS than Generals, and that trade wars are easy to win, now thinks he knows more about economy than Economists.
Trump wants an ever-higher growth rate, as that makes him look good, at least in the short run.
But an overheated economy usually leads to a significant recession. The Roaring 20s led to the Great Depression. The high growth of the late 70s led to the recession of the early 80s. 2008 was caused by Bush deregulation and stimulation in the few years prior. Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat.
In all such rollercoaster events, wealthy people have taken advantage and done well, while average people have lost jobs, homes, retirements.
If it goes badly, "Mr. Trump will have no one to credibly blame" But Trump has never burdened himself with credibility - he just blames anyone and everyone regardless of facts. He'll blame the Fed, Obama, Hillary's emails, whoever; and his fans will believe him.
An uninformed amateur, acting on a trial-and-error basis, is a very dangerous thing for our economy and for us.
7
The economy is Trump's friend until it is not! Once the economy slows, watch Trump denying the facts or blaming everyone else- "the buck stops with everybody." Elections have consequences and 2020 will be more critical.
3
Mr. Trump has not improved my personal economy incl. my 401k. It is worse than when he became president. The economic improvements he may be credited for will not sway my vote.
6
My retirement fund continue to grow. I guess some people like me invested wisely and some did not.
1
I owe $8000 in federal taxes this year. Most ever!
4
@Robb
And how much income did you receive this year? Your comment says nothing by itself.
2
The only real way to motivate the Government on economy policy would be to move the 2020 election to this year.
Why does no one mention that low unemployment could be explained in part because of 1 )fewer jobs available that could be filled by those still seeking work, and/or because 2)so many have stopped seeking work, and/or because ) 3the jobs available requiring greater technical knowledge, because of 4)automation reduces the number of jobs avalable except to those with advanced training or special technical knowledge!
These factors are relevant not only to manufacturing or information management or research but also to other types of work environments.
"But if he is wrong and the economy cools, Mr. Trump will have no one to credibly blame..."
But blame he will! Neither he nor his followers will care about the facts; they'll trust him when he blames the Democrats.
“The Federal Reserve has abruptly stopped it’s march toward higher interest rates, as Mr. Trump demanded”. This is inaccurate. The Fed operates as an independent part of the government precisely to keep meddling politicians from influencing monetary policy. Trump can neither ask nor order The Fed from taking a specific policy action. Shame on you New York Times, you have fed the beast with that statement.
3
Trump will easily shift blame to the Fed when the economy falters. He doesn't own anything if it doesn't suit him.
2
Trump doesn’t seem to get that Nationalism doesn’t extend well to the economy. The US is dependent on how well the rest of the world economies perform, and right now, that’s not a pretty picture.
Tariffs aren’t the only culprit for a slowdown in US and international growth, but they are a big contributor. Trump can glide into 2020 if he stops these foolish trade wars and campaigns on the economy (rather than a large, expensive, useless wall at the southern border, and fears of an imminent, invading brown menace).
Problem is, he doesn’t have Gary Cohn around anymore. If we finish FY19 closer to 2% (or less) in GDP growth (likely), Democrats can and will pounce. Trump will have no one to blame but himself.
I don’t want him re-elected, but I want all economies to do well. The only options he has are 1) ending the trade war now, 2) an immediate middle/lower class tax cut to goose consumer spending and 2) an infrastructure bill that commits at least $1 trillion to fixing and modernizing our soon-to-be third world infrastructure.
Trump’s not smart enough to figure out any of this, and he doesn’t listen (“I alone can fix this.”). And now that I think about it, I’d gladly trade some investment growth for a WH without Trump. That’s looking more and more likely. So please Donald, continue to throw red meat at your base over the wall. The rest of us don’t care.
1
Once again the trump supports have gotten the short end of the stick along with the rest of us. Once the housing market true number come out what will be the tweet then? It will read from trump that it is not his fault because not enough people are buying houses. Of course it will have nothing to do with the fact that he along with the republicans took away that tax credit.
Trump Owns the Economy Now, for Better or Worse...
You guys just don't get the drill. POTUS has never and will never 'own' anything. This economy tanks and it won't have anything to do with what HE did, it'll be someone else's fault. One of a litany of character flaws that so many of his current supporters identified when his candidacy was a sideshow, carney act. Unlike so many of the real men and women he routinely criticizes, accountability simply is not in his already limited vocabulary as evinced by his ample public record including adultery, income tax evasion, false and misleading advertising, six bankruptcies, and violation of Fair Housing laws, to name a few. Nope, this guy's never owned anything.
1
So basically, the NYT is hoping for a dead economy, higher unemployment, increased taxes and unfair trade policies towards the US, so their owners, the Democratic party, can try to win in 2020.
Got it.
5
This piece is so backward it could only have been written after the debacle of the 1980s. The holes in it are miles wide.
Firstly, the definitions used for growth are so vague as to make me wonder what kind of education Mr. Tankersley has. I myself took one macroeconomics course through the California State University system 32 years ago taught by a professor on staff at UCLA Economics. It was an undergraduate course. This article reads like a bad commercial. Trump has basically done little or nothing. Anything positive in this economy should be credited to Obama. This is inane.
1
it bothers the heck out of me when you take it upon yourself, the mighty NYT, to make outrageous headlines for your articles, like this one. "Trump owns the economy." this man doesn't know the first thing about our economy, he's too stupid. he is being puppeted by hand-picked corporate officers. the true villain in this scenario is mitch mcconnell, whose electorate don't have the combined intelligence of a throw pillow. and you do nothing but empower Trump with your article headlines.
Do a web search:
Warren Buffett and Bill Gates say the rich should pay more taxes
2
It’s easy for Gates and Buffet to say that when the both have more than $70 billion in the bank.
1
#ThanksObama
1
Awesome photo. McConnell looks at our Chief Executive the way you look at your toddler when he stops in the middle of the
living room, makes that intense face and does a semi-squat and you’re thinking, Man, I hope that diaper’s on tight enough.
4
A young friend of mine owns a frame shop here. She was doing very well until the end of the year, but things have slowed way down since then - close to a halt. I also know a couple of musicians who give music lessons - same thing. And these indicators are happening before all taxes are due - many who used to spend their tax 'refund" on a new washing machine are going to have to pay this year.
11
Trumps appointment of Stephen Moore to the fed will fix everything.
3
As most economists generally agree, Presidents inherit economies and only occasionally influence them. President Trump is no different. He inherited a growing economy, but has claimed - falsely- full credit for its continued growth since taking office.
While it is true that his signature tax bill has provided a modest bump to the economy, that benefit has already begun to fade, driven more by global economics and the president's ill-advised tariffs. Deficits have spiked and billions more are likely to be spent on a border wall that will take years to build and will do little to address drug trafficking or the fundamental issues of immigration.
As someone who cannot accept any criticism, if GDP growth continues its expected downward moderation - or, worse, the economy falls into recession - President Trump will without a doubt blame others for his failure.
I am saddened by the complete lack of governance or over site on the part of the GOP over a president so at odds with every core belief and principle that they supposedly profess to hold dear. I am even more distressed for the voters who placed their trust in the promises made by our president, but who have yet received so little in return.
5
What the Democrats should advocate and execute when given power, besides tax reform to combat extreme inequality, is to execute a plan that would force all public and most sizable private companies to offer shares to all employees, not just senior management. (Private companies could be required to create a market for shares to create liquidity).
One major reason the wealthy in this country are winning the battle for assets is that they are more likely to hold stock, which has surged with the bull market in the last decade. This is why 'the rich get richer.'
Democrats can talk about 'socialism' all they want, but they should stop fighting capitalism and instead give all working Americans a chance to own significant stakes in the economy that they have helped create. This would create a more financially democratic society.
4
What is good for the goose, is not necessarily good for the gander. For the short term, Mr. Trump is very proud of his economic achievements.
Long term, these results are very troublesome. How are the externalities cost from deregulation, deficits, improvisation on trade and other econmic policies going to be paid?
The pressure these costs will exert on the budget will necessarily mean reduction of funds to those accounts that impact the majority of citizens, and these include Social Security and Medicare.
No one should praise Mr Trump for this economy, and all must hold this administration accountable for the deplorable economic policies it has implemented.
2
Every reasonable observer of the title of this text 'Trump owns the economy, for better or for worse' will have to conclude that it is for the better, as things stand now and are likely to be for a short while at least.
But then again, how could you expect anything else but the suicidal wish of the NYT readership that it is perfectly fine that all goes to naught if it is going to take Trump with it. And what if the economy is not so strong, as is right now? What would you say then? Even more venom?
1
The idea that the economy is going to slow down and bring down Trump is a fantasy bigger than Russiagate. Anyone who even knows what GDP is, economists aside, are already Republicans. GDP could fall to 2.0% and the businessworld would shrug. What’s the alternative, Elizabeth Warren?! He already “had” them with the TCAJA. The majority of the Democratic “economic platforms” are completely nonsensical, just like Hilary’s and Obama’s, a mosh-mash of taxes and giveaways. (Yeah, that oughtta work.) Although those two look mindblowingly astute compared to the bench of beauts who’ve “declared” these days.
2
Don't worry. No-account Trump will blame somebody else when the economy goes south.
3
Would rather the stock market tank and we have another super recession--if that is what it takes to get our draft-dodging, liar of a President out of office.
4
The fed chairman just said on 60 Minutes last week that the economy was humming, and would continue well into 2020...so why with all the Debbie-Downer news? Can this man not get any credit from the NYT? And as for the readers complaining about their tax bills, blame your local elected leaders. Everyone else does.
5
No, we own it.
1
The Dow is lower than it was in January 2018 when his tax plan came into play. The number of people who are 90 days late on car and credit card payments is spiking and wages have not kept up with the raises at the top. A person can work a full time job and not be able to afford in most of our major cities. Our economy is not great.
5
If the economy doesn't continue upward in rosy glory, which has all been due to the president's agenda, he says, then nefarious blighters out to embarrass, "to get the president" just to make him look bad will have to be behind it...as the anticipated Tweet storm from POTUS will verify and White House aides, afterwards, will confirm.
One component of the economic puzzle missed in both the article and comments is the role investment in research played in American economic development. Since the 50's, federal research dollars promoted US dominance in computer/information technology and biomedicine resulting in US dominance in IT and biotechnology. Furthermore, research supported at US universities provided premiere training opportunities for industry and academic scientists. In addition, the opportunities attracted the best minds from around the world to study in the US and often stay to contibute their talents to the nations growth.
Trump's budget end's that. It is not clear the next big technological competition in artificial intelligence will be won by the US.
7
"But if he [Trump] is wrong and the economy cools, Mr. Trump will have no one to credibly blame — "
Not really. He can always blame the Dems. The whole Obama/Hillary bogie man meme is far from exhausted.
1
@LynnBob
P.S. And "credibly" has nothing to do with the thinking of the American electorate today. We are no longer fact-based in our beliefs.
The rich would never spend most of their tax cut windfall on factories and jobs, or on consumption, but on investments. This lack of consumer spending takes the wind out of the economy's sails. Cut immigration and then businesses do not have an adequate labor pool to fuel expansion, anyway. "Now hiring" signs everywhere and few workers to be found. Trump cannot blame the Fed because they halted interest rate rises completely and even are stopping with the selling of their immense balance sheet of bonds bought with massive amounts of printed fiat currency.
Obama took over in the depths of the financial meltdown and left things mostly recovered with an upward trajectory. Trump borrowed massive amounts from our debts to juice the economy even more, but much of his success rests on the underpinnings he inherited from Obama, something lost on short-memory Americans. As this article aptly states, this 2019 slowdown belongs entirely to Trump.
2
Presidents, good or bad, cannot prevent economic cycles. But job #1 for Trump is keep the ball in the air until election day. Anything that happens after that is Obama's fault. With our current trickle-down leadership, when the next "correction" comes it will kick the legs out from under the table.
People want to believe. And many do, until the plant where they work closes. Then everything becomes crystal clear. Democrats did not deliver for industrial America and when the dust settles, Trump won't either. In fairness, things like incredibly cheap labor in China are not easy to solve, but tough talk and playing lots of golf are not solutions.
2
This article doesn’t mention it, but my recollection is that the high third quarter growth in 2018 was significantly attributable to early and heavy soy buying (because soy beans can be stored for long periods of time) to avoid anticipated Trump tariffs. It’s a typical Trump house of cards, smoke and mirrors, and the resulting staggering deficit from his tax cut stimulus will end up providing Republicans down the road with justification for stiffing middle class Americans with Medicare and other cuts. These Republicans have no soul and their eventual trip down the River Styx doesn’t make me feel any better.
7
What happened to those Billions that were flowing into Treasury from the tariffs? Despite that rosy picture you find it necessary
to cut Medicare, a program you promised not to touch during your campaign (Promises Not Kept), and the special olympics (while giving executives in education department a substantial raise.
1
If I were Trump, what would really scare me is the trend in small business optimism (you know, one of the pillars of the Republican base). For dubious reasons, their optimism went through the roof directly following his election. In recent months, like Wile E. Coyote suddenly realizing they've run past the cliff, their numbers are plunging. (Check out the graph: https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FBrudgTVxxg/XIeuMjDPt4I/AAAAAAAAxfo/ZKYZng4Cl-ce2um2nHJiOv71tS1o6esTgCLcBGAs/s1600/NFIBFeb2019.PNG )
We just posted a meager 2.2% growth rate to end the year, and as of the last 12 months a whopping 1.3 trillion dollar deficit through February. Democrats should be all over the airwaves reminding Americans that Republicans drove up the deficit and debt, while cutting taxes for the wealthy.
2
One of Trump's "many talents" is to rain on his own parade. Instead of turning this week into a national "No Collusion; no Obstruction" party he calls for finally abolishing ACA; has Betsy take on the Special Olympics to save 18 million in a 4 trillion dollar budget; and still there's no resolution on the tariff wars that he professed were easy to win.
And the quote of the week: "I know a great deal about health care." From the same sage that once said: "Who knew health care could be so difficult."
3
Who got a tax cut? We didn't. I guess it was only for the 1%.
4
@JLT
I got a tax cut, and I'm a long way from the 1%. $500 less in taxes was more than I ever got under the previous administration, so I will take it, thank you very much.
2
As I see it only rich people living in high tax states and paying large local property taxes are paying more taxes.
3
Trump has owned the economy from day 1 of his presidency. We the independent voters are going to judge him for the period of his presidency not some prediction of the future if it gets worse. The economy has resulted so far in the lowest unemployment for all Americans for all races, religions, national origins and sexual orientations. It has been a business and investor friendly environment.
Where Trump needs to do more to drastically reduce the national debt is to shrink and reconfigure the government, reduce spending across the board and give tax cuts to those with annual family incomes less than 200, 000. In addition, the IRA contribution needs to be doubled so that Americans can set aside decent amount of money for retirement while investing in the economy.
1
I assume, Tankersley, means 'politically' when he says Trump owns this economy. That is he think the majority of Americas very ignorant people now think the current president is responsible for the state of our economy.
He isn't but, at least he hasn't destroyed it yet.
He, andt the Republicans, are responsible for the continuing TRUTH that only the very wealthy few will greatly benefit from our economy.
I wonder whether some airline decisions to switch from Boeing to Airbus are just using the 737 Max problems as an excuse to get away from the US as a supplier because of Trump.
It is stunning to see how many commenters discount the positive effects the Obama economic policy had on the country. Not that they did everything correctly (like not jailing financial risk takers that crashed the economy and not providing more relief to mortgage holders who found themselves under water), but the upward trends of the stock market and employment seen now are largely continuations of the trends started by, wait for it, President Obama.
Having an occasion look at David Leonhardt's columns on the economy would be helpful for these "readers".
1
Ac candle that burns twice as bright lives half as long and there is no such thing as free lunch.
An economic policy takes at least 3 months to 3.5 years till it manifests in the economy. Al lot of the economic growth is still the result of the minimum wage increases. The last ones are this year. (Trickle up- consumer economy) The Republicans are taking credit but the economists know the truth. The Trump tax cut won’t be fully manifested till 2021.
The high spending and reduction of taxes I see causing at least 6% - 18% inflation starting 2021. The high deficit spending will force the government to print money to make interest payments.
The Republican are running a bait and switch con game on taxes. They cut government taxes but insidiously will end up taxing the public through inflation and then claim they had nothing to do with it to finance the interest payments on the over borrowing they are doing now.
2021 will be an ugly place for a sitting president to be; no matter who it is. The Democrats need to prepare to get the message out now before they take the blame.
3
And how is making disabled people work to get food stamps going to increase the growth numbers? How are payments to farmers who can't sell their products going to help? How is not building a tunnel under the Hudson River in NY to avert a transportation nightmare going to help a "boom"? And denying food stamps to Puerto Rico? I could go on....but governing by spite is not a growth mechanism. Its sad that Republicans are more concerned about the next election and their own pockets, and not the constituencies they're supposed to represent. Lindsey Graham saying that President Trump "allows me into his world" was an indication that the moral rot of the Republican party is complete.
2
In a free trading market, your farmers don't get subsidies; in the USA the farming sector is heavily subsidized by the USA government taxes. More so since the trade war with China and the USA government debt just keeps on climbing. Our Reserve Bank in NZ likes to keep the exchange rate for our NZ dollar low so exporters, like farmers get more bang for their buck.
A low NZ dollar also makes NZ an attractive place for tourists to visit as they get more bang for their buck.
Now, do tell me whose government has the lowest government debt and also has a Welfare State and a State funded public hospital system and retirement pension, called National Superannuation, plus our tax rates are lower than other developed nations around the world.
5
@CK You also have grown-ups in the room and were able to eliminate assault rifles. I wish we could say the same thing here in the US. Trump has wasted over 7.7 Billion taxpayer dollars bailing out US farmers so far and now plans to end Obamacare which will throw the US health care system into chaos. I want to move to NZ!
3
Our small company has already seen a slowdown the first quarter of this year and we expect that trend to continue. Our vendors have expressed similar results. Most of our customers did not benefit from trumps tax cut for the wealthy and the tariffs have impacted the consumer who pays for them not the Chinese or the Europeans.
For trump to hold the view that " he is unconcerned about slowdowns in China and Europe, which he considers economic rivals" is typical of his uneducated shallow thinking. They are trading partners and downturns in their respective economies has global implications.
And we all know that despite the rhetoric here trump will blame it on Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats.
4
And government debt just keeps on climbing, and climbing because of corporate welfare tax cuts. You can't deregulate the financial and banking sectors and not expect a massive crash, at some stage, as history has shown us. Totally irresponsible way to govern a nation.
1
The GOP elephant in the room was the corporate "tax cut." None of this money went back into companies for capital expansion or increased labor force. All if it went into the pockets of share holders and executives.
The middle class was scammed again.
I agree that Trump owns the economy, for better or worse. The problem is that he purchased it on credit - he has raised our deficit to $1 Trillion to pay for his tax cuts now. The bill will ultimately come due (in the form of higher interest rates and a greater debt burden for our children), but the economy will belong to someone else when the bill comes due.
4
And person will be Democrat like always.
I have never held a president responsible for the ups and downs of the stock market or the overall economy, in good times or bad. The American economy is huge and complex. I hold big corporations and Wall Street investment banks more responsible. What I do hold a president responsible for is the welfare of working people when the economy turns down or their paychecks freeze while their cost of living rises, when they are so burdened with debt they can't buy the goods other workers produce, when the rising cost of health insurance eats up any pay raises they might earn, when bank credit is so tight they can't get a mortgage for a first home or a loan to start a business, things like that. Behind "the economy" are real people struggling to make ends meet and working to get ahead. A good president will focus on them.
5
Tariffs and tax policy are under this president and surely will impact the pocket book of most. 25 percent on lumber , steel , aluminum and trade barriers on agriculture are homestead issues.
My advice with the potential of the ACA being eliminated with that pre-existing conditions and lifetime benefits coming back is to save and save.
@Kevin Niall -Save, and keep on saving? Good advice, but that, no matter how much you have saved, will not be enough. A short history I share:
My wife and I are on Medicare. In 2015 one of us was taken to emergency rooms, and admitted to hospitals four times during a 15 week period. These required a good amount of procedures, including a surgery. On due time, we received a bill for $475K. Thanks to Medicare and the Medi-gap insurance we have, we did not pay a penny for that bill.
All citizens must have access to an affordable Health Care system; had it not been for the insurance coverage we have, we would be either homeless and/or one of us in the cemetery.
1
I expect that if Democrats change Obamacare as they have been saying they would, pre existing conditions will be treated differently. Only Trump has said pre existing conditions must continue to be covered.
@Richard Winchester then why is he trying to get the whole law overturned? Why did democrats cover preexisting conditions in the first place? Yeah if you believed trump I got a bridge to sell ya, oh and how’s the nafta agreement going?
The economy is not humming, it's on a crash trajectory.
Been posting following periodically since summer 2018:
I mark January 1, 2018 as the official end of Obama's economy and the beginning of the next economic crash trajectory.
Few supporting reasons:
1) corporate taxes were reduced by one third
1.1) creates artificial step increase in corporate performance without an actual increase in performance. (if a company's tax decreased by 1 million, its profit increased by 1 million, with zero change in goods and services produced)
1.2) money was used for stock buybacks, not for investment or wage increases
1.3) huge government borrowing (from China?) to make up for lost tax revenues, injecting billions of borrowed money into the economy, running up a huge goverment debt.
2) revoke Volcker rule, allows for propriety trading (gambling) with FDIC insured depositors savings by a few rich guys with access. This (combined with buybacks) is inflating another market bubble.
3) raised taxes (aka tariffs) on the middle class, which caused frontloading, another temporary bump in the economy.
4) two thirds of GDP is consumer spending, raised taxes (tariffs) places a huge drag on this.
7
Their investment algorithms include another bail-out, so they've got this covered and will be just fine. The rest of us, driving back and forth between two or three part time jobs, will not fair so well. Better get rid of health care and SS.
1
Finally, the New York Times acknowledges that this is Trump's economy. It is no longer Obama's. In fact, it stopped being Obama's, the day he left office. I hope that those who comment acknowledge and embrace that fact too. One reader commented that Trump also "owns the enormous tax bills everyone in the NJ, NY, CT and MA region have received." Yes, he does. And I am glad to see these bills. No longer is the federal government subsidizing the high taxes of the Northeast, nor the enormous mortgages they take out. Its time for the Northeast and other high tax regions to pay their own way. I know that I will push back about this comment but I don't care, because everything I have said is true, and if the South and low tax regions get federal dollars, the increase in federal taxes upon the Northeast means more money for us. By the way, I got a bigger refund under Trump tax policy than I ever did under Obama. I support the President. I support Trump. America First! MAGA! Thank you.
9
The economy doesn’t turn on a dime. That’s why we have a lag between presidents and who “owns” the economy. The day Obama left office was not the same day that Trump policies took effect. Even if he had done everything he wanted to do with the economy on day one, it could have taken a year or so for the economy, as a whole, to change to reflect those policies.
If you don’t want the federal government to subsidize states, you should want high tax states like California to start to keep their taxes in their state. Red states tend to use more federal dollars than blue states do but the blue states provide the money. https://www.apnews.com/2f83c72de1bd440d92cdbc0d3b6bc08c
3
@Southern Boy
FYI: Subsidizing my taxes? For your information, my tax dollars go to support the red states. So all you care about is more money for you personally?
I did not get a refund this year, I have to pay the criminal trump even more taxes and he never pays any.
Actually everything you have said is categorically not true.
You can gloat all you want. When the economy collapses and you lose your health care, SS and Medicare, you can brag about how great america is then.
7
@Southern Boy
If you know enough to make your post, you also know enough to look up how much of Northern/Coastal state tax revenue flows into low-tax state coffers. Succinctly: high-tax, high benefit, metropolitan areas feed the needs of the south; they aren't "paying their way." If federal subsidies disappeared, the south and rural America would be crushed.
So before you trumpet how great the GOP tax cut is, maybe think about how a couple bucks a pay period or a thousand more in a tax refund translated to corporate coffers? We have been scammed: they got all of it, forever. We are all Americans, and I am proud to pay taxes as a citizen supporting ALL of my neighbors and country--why do conservatives take glee at the suffering of fellow citizens when they have tax subsidies removed so that Apple can buy back stock? It is a politics of cruelty and misdirection, policies we are going to pay for in much more than direct, financial ways. We are paying in the pain caused to citizens who actually deserve help.
5
It's easy to look good in the short term by cutting regulations and taxes and running up the deficit. The chickens come home to roost in future administrations. I feel another Bush-type depression coming on. We have replaced well-paid jobs with mediocre jobs and we can't even fix healthcare or get sensible gun laws. Our Lobbyocracy is severely broken.
When will we address urgent matters like climate change, job loss from automation, crumbling infrastructure, the electoral college, etc.?
We were in a good position to do all these things after the Obama administration saved us from depression. We lost a huge opportunity and we are heading into the next recession with few means to fix it. You have to be really bad at business to bankrupt casinos. Hopefully, you have to be unbelievably bad to bankrupt the US.
6
Trump preemptively blaming the Fed shows that he knows his promises of growth aren’t going to be met. Not his old promise of 4% to 6%, not his revised promises of 3%.
Moreover it shows Trump’s m.o. of claiming credit for the possible that never comes while blaming someone else for the unfortunate reality, and contributing nothing of his own besides spin.
4
There is an UNBROKEN rising slope from the low of the 2008 crash to today. The fact that today's economy is doing fine means nothing more than that Trump is riding the recovery set in place by Obama.
2
The New York Times complained in 2016 that the economy was stagnant under Obama. Did the trusted media lie?
Multi billion (soon to be trillion) dollar Corporations hoarding money. Billionaire's with phony tax shelters hoarding money. These people and entities require a tax cut?
This is neither a short term or long term gain. It's just foolish economics removing wealth from the nation's treasury, into a billionaires bank account.
2
Our economy is currently a mixed bag. While the slow down in global economy and trade sanctions have negatively impacted it, there are some upsides to it as well, including continuing low unemployment and wage increases, especially among blue collar workers, and record high labor participation rates, especially among young women. And inflation continues to be muted. I hope the Fed does not cut rates, since we will need room to maneuver in case of further downturn. In any case, I am rooting for our economy and certainly do not wish any economic hardship on the country just because the current President is problematic.
2
Clinton actually left Bush Jr. a budget surplus. Bush left Obama a massive debt bomb. The annual deficit was retreating toward the end of the Obama adminstration as the economy was improving and tax revenue increasing. It made a lot of sense to massively deficit spend when the private sector was shrinking. We constrained spending through divided government.
1 year into the tax cuts and increased military spending, the Trump budget annual deficits are expanding at an incredibly fast rate. The economy is also starting to slow.
Trump has done in 2 years what it took Bush Jr. nearly 8 years to accomplish.
I know there is new economic thinking that deficits don't matter. MMT is going to be tested very soon. Trump experienced MMT theory in his own real estate business. The results can be found in Chapter 11.
To be continued...
6
Trump also owns trillion dollar deficits, because believe me, nobody builds deficits better than Trump.
3
Ah, Trump the 'businessman'. Bankrupt six times. Forgive me if I'm just a little short on faith.
4
Now that the economy may take a downturn Trump owns it? It’s strange he didn’t own the upturn since he became President.
4
Personally, I’d give him the economy since the middle of 2018. His policies took some time to have their effects felt. The economy doesn’t pivot on a dime and so the economy was still feeling the effects of old Obama policies for quite some time. The economy is like a semi fully loaded and we’re pushing it uphill or trying to slow it from going downhill too fast. It takes time to change.
1
@Richard Winchester
The economy had already started its "upturn" during the Obama administration. Trump merely benefited from Obama's work. Soon we will witness the horrors of Trump's ignorant, greedy, stupid policies.
2
In 2016 the New York Times ran several articles that complained that the economy had become stagnant under Obama’s administration. The economy picked up after Trump was in office several months.
I am a bit weary of the false narrative of Trump being responsible or the health of the economy. He inherited an economy in recovered mode after the GOP left it in shreds in 2008. Obama steered the world through the GFC calamity that he inherited. Does anyone really think Trump rolled up his sleeves, got down to wok and figured out strategies. The only fiscal expertise he has is furniture retail for married mistresses and spending daddy trump's inheritance on tic Tacs. Wow, what a servant to the America
5
so we are rooting for a US economic collapse?
is that correct?
2
It’s not rooting for it to collapse as much as it is worrying that our tools for recovery have been spent unnecessarily.
Imagine being in a zombie apocalypse and one guy in the group decided to shoot all the ammo into the air, ate all the food, and is on his way to alert the zombies of the group’s location. That’s where we stand economically.
1
Years ago Nikita Khrushchev said "We will bury you", he was wrong, if unchecked, Trump will do it.
(I've never used the word President referring to HIM, and never will.)
Trump makes DIck Cheney look to be a warm fuzzy teddy bear, who would have thought?
2
Interesting, first the article says this:
"...But if he is wrong and the economy cools, Mr. Trump will have no one to credibly blame..."
And yet, a few paragraphs later:
"While Mr. Trump continues to predict robust growth, he is already trying to pin blame for any slowdown on the Fed, rather than any of his own policies....He added that, “if we didn’t have somebody that would raise interest rates and do quantitative tightening,” we would have been at over 4 percent growth...."
The fact that the Gallup poll shows that 56% of Americans approve of Trump's so-called "handling" of the economy shows that he is an expert and not only hogging credit but placing blame.
Whether he blames the Fed, or Obama, or the Clintons, when the market tanks and the recession hits, many will believe him.
It's a gift. I guess.
I think the Gallup poll shows that we desperately need to better educate people on how the economy and government works.
Trump may be gloating now, which he does best but when that credit bubble pops he will be looking for the nearest rat hole to hind in.
It's so secret that the two states Trump hates the most (California and New York) get the brunt loss on SALT deductions.
1
trumps ideas for a robust economy: more guns, less special olympics.
4
If the economy continues to pick up, NYT will run another piece saying the economy is a result of Obama policies.
5
Really, Trump "owns" nothing for he knows nothing about anything in regard to governance. However, if the economy does decline as projected Trump and his "Brown Shirts" will simply blame it on the Democrats, immigrants, Puerto Rico or China. Republicans never assume or accept responsibility for their policies, like the criminal massive tax cuts for the 1%, or ever apologize! It is only going to get worse!
3
How many people are voting for Trump because they think he will be a careful and wise manager of the economy or anything else? Maybe people find a small piece of what he does and claim to support it, but that's just a cover for what is really going on. He is a cultural symbol. The world is changing and most Americans have been left behind. The poor standard of education in much of this country is one of the main reasons for this. One option would be for someone to admit that a blind allegiance to god, guns, and the "good ole days" has failed millions of people. But nobody wants to admit that. It hurts to admit that people have spent a generation voting for their own downfall. Instead, Trump presents an alternative: attack everything. Spit in the face of change and education. Call progress elitism. Call an attempt to be kind to people "weak political correctness". Find scapegoats and blame them: muslims, mexicans, UN, NATO, trade partners. The fact that he ticks off so many people is his appeal. That's why religious voters are prepared to support him not matter how many porn stars he paid off: because it disgusts the people writing comments in this article more. I frankly don't think there are many people who voted for him who will ultimately give two figs if the economy fails. They will just say - the democrat would be worse. He has been held responsible for nothing his entire life and it won't start now.
5
"But if he is wrong and the economy cools, Mr. Trump will have no one to credibly blame"
but yet
"The Democrats who control the House have no desire to pass another round of tax cuts."
How can you say these two sentences and not see the connection? The only way Trump *doesn't* have a scapegoat is if Democrats lean into his plan. And his base will lap it up like they do everything else he spews.
It felt like the article was separating those two scenarios in time. If the economy cools, I could see tax cuts from the House, but not until then.
Hmmm... I smell a "wag the dog" moment... what better way to rally the nation behind you then in times of war. Hmmm... what dark-skinned (or non-Christian) nation is an easy target?
As people noted below, the fiscal stimulus created by the combination of tax cuts and reduced withholding increased consumption last year. On the other hand, as Professor Krugman has repeatedly showed with graphs, net domestic investment is down not up. So our productive capacity is not growing. Further, now that many are finding they owe money that they received last year unbeknownst, due to revised withholding, are now having to reduce consumption. The combined lack of capacity and reduced consumption will reduce if not reverse the stimulus of the tax cuts, and lack of investment spending, and lack of additional spending by federal government, should lead to considerably less growth demand leading to less output. How much will depend on the number of people suffering withholding penalty..
2
The SALT deduction removal means less for us to donate to worthy causes such local outreach programs and several relief agencies. This means reduced support for those truly in need.
I assume therefore, that the billionaires and the corporations will pick up the slack, or is that too much to ask?
2
Much like Obama's economy, Trump's numbers aren't as strong as you might think. The millions of jobs being created are mostly low-wage, outsourcing is continuing, and wage growth remains stagnant. GDP growth means nothing if only the rich are reaping the benefits.
3
The business cycle goes up and down in waves regardless of who sits in the White House. Unfortunately many are easily conned into believing otherwise.
A politician to me is a person who saw a parade forming. He or she then quickly ran in front and began strutting while twirling a baton.
4
We all know what he is going to say no matter where the economy goes. Ending with “believe me”. As for the White House officials predicting strong growth, the chief WH economist is Larry Kudlow who is not an economist and has an impressive record for being wrong for many years.
4
I'll gladly suffer a recession in 2020. A recession we can survive. Trump we cannot.
9
You state that he will have no one else to ”credibly” blame. I think you greatly underestimate his skill in diverting blame to others and the credulity of his ardent supporters. Sad but true.
7
@Skeptic No doubt you are correct and Trump will lay the blame for every problem on the Democrats.
1
"The only problem our economy has is the Fed" ... so says trump. Really? How about tariffs imposed willy nilly without fore thought? Or government shut downs over a wall that Mexico won’t pay for? Or a ballooning federal deficit because of tax cuts that aren’t paying for themselves? Or a complete dysfunction and utter chaos in the WH now aggravated even more by a partial gov’t shutdown? And the nonsensical tweeting about firing the chairman of the Federal Reserve doesn’t help either.
3
The financial sector will be the last to notice, or care, that Trump has the morals and financial sophistication of a street corner pimp.
So long as this or that sector profits, the bodies left behind are of no matter to banks and the movers of money.
3
The only economy that Donald Trump, Sr. owns and cares about is hidden from the American people in his personal, family and business income tax returns and records.
Russia if you are listening can we please see those documents?
Israel if you are listening can we please see those documents?
China if you are listening can we please see those documents?
North Korea if you are listening can we please see those documents?
Iran if you are listening can we please see those documents?
Pakistan if you are listening can we please see those documents?
India if you are listening can we please see those documents?
United Kingdom if you are listening can we please see those documents?
Germany if you are listening can we please see those documents?
God/ Mother Nature if you are listening can we please those documents?
8
Well, the inevitable is coming. The economy always does worse under the GOP. That’s a fact. Donald will freak out when that happens and don’t count on Steve Mnuchin to steady the ship.
3
Uh-oh. What happened to all those other business concerns Trump owned? Trump Airline, Trump Magazine, Trump Casino, Trump University, Trump Water, and so on.
Yeah.
7
The president can lie at any point and his base will believe him. He will not own anything. He is above the law, and he is above reason.
The president is a disturbed little child. In no world of reason would such an imbecile be considered capable of being president, yet, here we are. Everyone should stop believing that eventually reason will take hold, it will not.
In actuality we should hope that he destroys our economy. We have a choice to act on climate change now, or put it off and let it become a run away process. Trump will not act on climate change so the next best thing for those who will live in the future is that he causes (along with the other imbecile fascist elsewhere in the world) a deep and long term economic downturn. It might just delay the onset of the feedback loops in climate gases that will be a point of no return.
2
Can you imagine Donald taking responsibility for literally any negative thing ever?
3
With the trade adjustments initiated by the Trump Admin., the results of these changes can ultimately be evaluated by their effects on the size of the trade deficit. If it shrinks in size with stronger GDP growth, then the Trump Admin. changes can be labeled as positive, longer term changes in the US economic infrastructure. If such a narrowing fails to accompany such growth, then the policy changes were simply oversold.
The Trump Admin. has also claimed credit for helping to levitate the prices of equity securities. Yet, much of this increase in stock prices can probably be traced to stock buybacks and private equity fund purchases of public companies via LBOs. Both practices significantly reduce the number of shares outstanding and drive stock prices higher.
Consider IBM's recent buyback activity: It ended 2018 with about 0.916 billion shares outstanding, with a decline of -2.25% from 2017. Recent 10 day trading trends show 3.6 million average shares traded. With 70% of these trades, program trades, that leaves 1.08 million shares traded daily. Since 21,000,000 shares were repurchased in 2018 per above, and with 252 trading days in 2018, means IBM repurchased 83,333 shares per trading day in 2018; or IBM itself generated about +7.72% of its daily trading volume, via its own stock repurchase plan.
Via buyback prestidigitation, Wall Street may be gaining longer periods of independence from a strong anchoring in the underlying US economy.
[3/28 Th 11:12p Greenville NC]
3
“Economists say that Trump tax cuts deserve much of the credit for the economic gains this year”.... a very interesting policy stance for the New York Times to be reporting.
Nonetheless I appreciate the honesty, but the tone of this article is somewhat concerning as other commenters have eluded to. I know the state of the economy doesn’t really affect NYT journalists but please don’t wish for a recession which is what this article sounds like.
Additionally, if you want to talk budget deficits, look no further than AOC’s Green New Deal and the rest of the “far left”. They’d make trump tax cuts deficit look tiny and economists argue it would absolutely tank the economy.
1
The title here is misleading. While it proclaims an ackowledgement that The President owns the economy, very little if anything in the article (or going back to articles from his first months in office, for that matter) even suggests that the renewed strength in our economy is a tremendous accomplishment. In other words, the article is predicting doom, and that is its purporse. It seems that the New York Times has learned nothing from the Mueller report and its aftermath. It's still the same old paper with the same old agenda.
4
Trump's voodoo economics and over-optimistic estimates of GDP growth are not that important. The decisive issue in the 2020 election will be healthcare, and he's certainly on the losing side of that issue.
2
I'm not the most astute observer of economics. My thoughts:
Aside from his multiple bankruptcies and the fact that he deals with sketchy foreign sources of financing because U.S. banks won't deal with him because he's a bad risk---
I have to tolerate family members who say they voted for him for "the economy." If I could stomach the debate, I'd ask them if they've ever talked to a citizen of Atlantic City, New Jersey about how he does "the economy." I take occasional day trips to Atlantic City. Things aren't looking good economically.
And I'm baffled as to how he ran a casino into the ground.
3
Any reference to a Trump infrastructure “plan” is a sad joke. His “plan” calls for $200 billion of federal money over a decade, coupled with the hope that state and local governments, along with private investors, will provide the rest of the $800 billion plus to get something accomplished. The elephants crowding the room include: (1) state and local governments, especially in states where Republican-controlled legislatures have passed Grover Norquist-sized tax cuts, have little money to invest; (2) this scenario is ripe for private interests to enrich themselves at the expense of taxpayers without much benefit to the public interest; and (3) the lack of prioritizing and coordinating critical infrastructure projects means that billions will be wasted and private interests will cherry pick the most profitable projects (e.g. those that can impose tolls or fees from the public), while truly critical needs will be left languishing. We need a President like Eisenhower, who propelled our interstate highway system into existence, not a five-time bankrupt casino owner who was so uncredited-worthy that American banks refused to lend to him.
5
Bottom line will be how much of this proposed wealth will be shared or how much will be kept by a wealthy few.
How does this low unemployment play out, lots of low paying jobs or jobs with a reasonable wage?
How will the deficit of over 1 trillion effect the economy?
Will jobs continue to leave? Will AI and robots continue to replace workers?
Will the Trump trade war continue to destroy many farmers and businesses?
What happens when health care disappears and prices go way up?
How will the lack of revenue effect vital government services?
Lots of unknowns to be answered,
3
Trump's tariffs have hit the US because Trump has not understood the complexities of global business. Jeremy Haft, a veteran of US -China import-export for 20 years, & who writes for the The Foreign Policy Institute in Washington has stated the problem succinctly: "For every job saved or created through tariffs, many more jobs are eliminated. The administration announced on May 31, 2018, a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% aluminum industry. Economists estimate that about 27,000 jobs would be created in the steel & aluminum industry from the tariffs in the next one to three years, yet about 430,000 jobs would be eliminated in the total. In essence, every job created in the metals industry through tariffs would kill 16 jobs in other industries, mostly ones that consume steel & aluminum. "
He goes on to say Mid-Continent of Missouri, is losing money because the tariffs have destroyed its profit margins. The company laid off 60 workers in June 2018, announced an additional 200 job cuts in July, and may go out of business entirely, putting its 500 employees out of work.
Ford is another company that has been stymied by tariffs.
So how intelligent if Trump if he does not bother to study the economic impacts of globalization and the ensuing trade implications? All he does is strut in front his cheering audience as he tells more lies.
4
Glad to see the attempt at a correction:
"Growth for the full year — as measured from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018 — stands at 3.0 percent, down a bit from the initially reported 3.1 percent but still enough to allow Mr. Trump to claim to have achieved the first year of 3 percent growth since 2005. (That claim is somewhat misleading. Year-over-year growth has topped 3 percent several times in recent years, but not in the fourth quarter. An alternative measure of full-year growth for 2018, based on comparing calendar-year averages, was unrevised at 2.9 percent.)"
Two observations:
1. The Commerce Department reported 2018 real GDP growth at 2.9%. That is not the alternative measure; it is the official measure. Going to another decimal point, 2018 growth was 2.86% vs. 2.88% in 2015.
2. When the official measure failed to reach over 3% growth, the White House switched to the alternative measurement of growth from the 4th quarter of 2017 to the 4th quarter of 2018. In the initial estimate it rounded to 3.1%. With today's revisions it rounds to 3.0%. But if you take it to a few decimal points, it is actually 2.97%--in other words, still BELOW 3%.
2
Since Trump's tax cut, GDP the last four quarters has gone up over $1 trillion, $1.07 trillion to be exact. More than a 100% increase over Obama's $480 billion in 2016.
Personal income has gone up over $750 billion, a huge increase over 2016's improvement.
1
The economic recovery has been going on for ten years at a consistent unrelenting determined pace since the catastrophic Bush recession. Yet in the ninth year of the recovery trump asserts he inherited "a mess" and incredibly claims ownership for the whole nine years, including the low unemployment rate. In truth he's been blithely riding the economic recovery success coattails of his predecessor.
2
@John Townsend
Economic growth during the first full six quarters of the Trump administration has averaged 3 percent, double the nearly 1.5 percent average for President Barack Obama's last six full quarters, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis.
People who knows Macro Economics and Trade Cycle knows it very well that POTUS has nothing to do with good/ bad economic situations of a state in free market economy.
The American economy is almost 100% private. Even the Pentagon reverts most of its budgets to private contractors, so they really are like a single payer system. It really operates on "autopilot": even if the American government collapsed suddenly, the USA would still operate normally in most of its social fabric, most people don't even realizing it collapsed for a significant time (barring, of course, in a case the collapse coming from a direct military invasion by another superpower).
This decentralized, anarchic mode of production typical of capitalism, being one of the aspects that makes the USA very different from the USSR: if the Americans collapse, it will be very different from the Soviet case.
No POTUS is really responsible for the American economy unless something really crazy happens (something to do with the Fed). That is true for both parties, for better and for worse.
2
"Mr. Trump will have no one to credibly blame" I can already hear all the blame from Trump if (when) the economy cools or perhaps turns into a full recession...he so loves to take credit for anything and everything when things are going well t and blame, blame, blame when things go wrong...
1
First, some while back many "experts" were certain the economy was on the verge of crashing. Then they were certain it was on the verge of exploding. Now they're certain it's on the verge of a steep decline. With very few exceptions, their abilities are questionable at best, and many are just charlatans who have convinced a gullible public that they actually know more than we do.
2
Our priorities seem out of place. Everywhere Trump goes he incurs massive debts and looks for loopholes and ways to saddle others with the debts for his gains. It is no different now. We will all pay a huge price for this mistake. Recession job loss, birth rate loss, austerity, losses internationally and etc. In trump''s world real money today is worth thousands in debt tomorrow. He plays shell games. You have to guess which shell the money is under. Somehow it always ends up in his pocket. Funny how that works.
3
With plunder of public resources through tweaked environmental regulations, trillions of tax bonanza for his crony corporates, and high tariff protections for the dwindling domestic industry, Trump got everything he wanted from the ecoomy, but that never means that the society too got what it needed by way of meeting its basic necessities. Thus what Trump got is at the cost of American society.
2
What is wrong with Pelosi and Schumer and the Democrats?
We all know that when a Democrat wins the White House next, the Republicans will shut down the government and demand spending cuts to address the DEFICIT!
Pelosi and Schumer aren't saying a word about the rapidly increasing Federal Deficit...now above $ 22 Billion and as a result of the tax cuts for the rich and our giant corporations in combination with expanded military spending.
Is it because Pelosi and Schumer are also so rich they are enjoying the Trump-McConnell deficit busing tax cuts (unfunded tax cuts)?
Further, why do the Democrats continue to allow corporate subsidies to not be recognize as a contra- tax revenue account under the Government budget and reporting rules?
Corporate subsidies must begin to be accounted for....as contra-tax revenue accounts - PERIOD!
Maybe Pelosi and Schumer (like Obama and Clinton) are a lot more Republican than they are true Democrats and the party of labor and the middle class!
1
When the debt rises by another trillion, the U.S. will find out what creditors did in four bankruptcies and subcontractors have in three thousand law suits. Trump has no respect for real world risks when he undertakes his endeavors but he weasels out of taking the losses when they crash and burn.
3
Trump's Economy? The midwest farm economy will be devastated this year, manufacturing will be just so-so, the financial sector's road is full of boulders and the housing market will stagnate. Trump and the GOP were counting on their 'tax cuts' to stimulate the economy but it seems to have run it's course prematurely. The future looks gray at best.
5
Many Democrats are in favor of another tax break! It’s called the LIFT act, which would basically be a tax break for those making under $100,000.
But unlike Republicans, Democrats proposal is balanced. It’s balanced because it would also raise taxes on the very rich, thus not ballooning the deficit.
Moreover, this plan makes sense. Sure the macroeconomic indicators show that the economy grew at about 3%, but a large majority of Americans cannot afford a $400 emergency expenditure. So yes, the economy is growing. Buts who’s the economy really growing for? And I think we all know that answer to that one.
7
" stands at 3.0 percent, down a bit from the initially reported 3.1 percent but still enough to allow Mr. Trump to claim to have achieved the first year of 3 percent growth since 2005"
Okay so Trump did what he said he'd do: pass massive tax reform and deliver 3% growth.
Wakeup call: 401ks and the market are at record highs, job growth and unemployment are great. This economy is still on fire. As long as this economy stays put, Trump will win again.
Economics is the dismal science for a reason.
1
I would propose that the Twinkie economy is when a lot of money is being exchanged but the new wealth formation is not going into the foundation for further economic growth formation but into the sugar hoard of the very wealthy.
Now if you think that all new wealth is a reward from the heavenly spirit that rewards rich people for being rich, then removing as much money from those troublesome free riders who make up 99% percent of the population when they are not cranking out widgets on the assembly line and from government is the key to real economic prosperity. It also means that you have forgotten that money is only a convenient means of exchange and a stand in for real wealth in any economic system.
The so-called free riders and government are the economy’s consumers. If they cannot buy more, there will not be any market for more production. No more production means no more opportunities to create more new wealth.
The economy is not booming for all , just the few.
The shut down in January exposed how many Americans live on the economic edge, the tax cuts did nothing to alleviate the inequality of our economy in fact it exacerbated it.
The new jobs created are in spite of a Trump not because of him.
The need for new hires is inevitable as some 10000 people retire each day and replacements are needed. Problem is we do not have a trained labor force with the right skills and in the right place.
Yes we need to rebuild our infrastructure but we do not have the people or with a deficit of close to trillion dollars the money to do it. The floods in the Midwest highlight the need for solutions to the effects of climate change
Health care is a disaster, it will be a total tragedy without the ACA .
The biggest fear most Americans have is not North Korea , the Southern Border , it is crippling debt from health issues
America needs solutions , the Democrats need to come up with an holistic agenda to solve these issue
Health care reform including anti gouging act to reduce prescription drug prices to International levels plus a public option
Tax reform , closing all tax loopholes enjoyed by Companies and high income earners. Increase minimum wage , FICA relief for low income.
Infrastructure plan funded by closing those loopholes and infrastructure tax on imports.
Technical training programs plus immigration plan to close skills gap
Please Speaker Pelosi lets have a plan for America.
6
@Carsafrica
Her plan, raise taxes, spend more, regulate more and slow growth.
2
@BRYAN HERRIN
So what is your plan for Health Care, Infrastructure, income inequality , ever increasing deficits , fixing the levees in the mid west.
We saw how the Bush trickle down , unregulated economy drove us into the Great Recession.
Already Trump,s administration is forecasting lower growth from their promised levels just the start .
We do not need higher tax rates we need to close corporate tax loopholes , tell me why does Apple , Amazon GE pay much lower tax rates than smaller companies they use our infrastructure , social services , educated work force , they should pay their fair share.
The Trump regime plays favorites eg, tariff protection for steel etc which blew a big hole in the profits of Ford, GM etc . Carried interest etc
He then has a unmitigated gall to whine when GM closes a plant
1
He also owns the enormous tax bills everyone in the NJ, NY, CT and MA region have received. Removing our SALT deductions has forced us into illegal double taxation. My own additional tax bill is over $12,000 with my husband. I talked to a homeowner in Yonkers who owes over $6,000. A resident in Boston, owes over $7,000.
We already pay the highest taxes in the country! We fund our schools and roads and police through local taxes. Now we have to literally write checks to billionaires to receive huge tax breaks? This tax money is not going to education or healthcare or bridges, it is going to the 1%.
707
It’s about time residents of blue states paid their fair share of taxes.
29
@American totally agree. If you support democrat economic agendas, you should be paying more taxes. Clearly people who vote for the far left care very little about fiscal prudence and their money would be probably better spent by the government
14
@American
I agree. Blue states should get tax relief from paying more than Red states. Fair is fair.
101
The higher they rise, the harder they fall. Beware of a nasty hangover after the artificial stimulus (tax cuts for the 0.01%) wears off and the billionaires hoard their money rather than spend it.
268
@Casey Penk "Nasty Hangover" is such a good way to put it!
11
@Casey Penk
Well said.
You know, you just put your finger on one of the major drags on our economy today (and for the last 20 or so years): too much money is in warehouses like stocks and US T-bills and bonds. Our tax policy has favored hoarding rather investing in job-creating investments. It is having the effect of taking the capital out of our capitalism.
4
The extreme inequality that the Republicans have created during the last 40 years puts a damper on our economy by reducing consumer demands. Mr. Trump's enormous tax cut for businesses and wealthy individuals has masked this effect temporarily. In general, however, his policies are creating more inequality, economic and otherwise. The negative effects of our impoverished middle class will eventually drag the economy down into a recession or worse.
219
The Democrats have also been in power over the last 40 years and they share any blame there is to dole out. I have voted Democratic throughout this time, until 2012 when I finally realized that they too have done nothing for the middle classes.
1
@wyleecoyoteus Removing or reducing demand and substituting it with investment and production would be great. After all consumption drives the economy in say China much more than in the US.
Stagnation would be better description. It’s already happened from the policies started with Reagan. Lowering taxes producing deficits and intended to increase capital formation along with plummeting union membership has produced a middle class that shares in little of the new wealth created. That goes to investors. They have no incentives to risk it with rational strategies. They act like humans not rational agents with unlimited resources. When times are slow, they protect their capital instead of investing it. Government ends up running on deficits indefinitely and cannot maintain infrastructure.
5
I think it’s wonderful that “unemployment has dipped to 3.8 percent. Inflation remains subdued, and wage growth is accelerating.”
But that’s today.
I’m more concerned and worried about what’s down the road, i.e., “the widening federal budget deficit”. I tend to believe what the Treasury Department says over anything that comes out of Trump’s yap. The deficit has ballooned, and the Treasury Department is predicting that is will “soon top $1 trillion a year.” And yet, Trump is mute on that issue. We are drowning in debt and Trump sees the life preservers as quaint party hats. I don’t know how much bigger an elephant can get in the room.
292
Why would he care. He always just goes to the bank that launders money and hands it to him for no good reason that we can see. Must be nice.
37
As long as the interest rates remain low and consumption is not fired up into inflation territory, the debt will not be felt. But when it is, then so will the pain.
7
@Marge Keller I want to live where you live. There is considerable inflation and I buy mostly just what I need to exist and prices just keep going up and up on food, drugs, gas has gone up 25cents per gallon in last five weeks.
Unemployment rate is very questionable. I wonder what it would be if CPI wasn't changed in the 90's. I know I would have more in SS as the raises would reflect more accurately inflation, unemployment et al.
16
let’s just start with the title of the article: “a slowdown is expected in 2019.” it seems to me like you’re rooting for a slowdown. can we stop with all the negative predictions and just report the news? for once?
9
Better to be surprised than to worry?
Being prepared requires realistically anticipating possible outcomes so as to plan for them.
1
Uh, because the fact is that a slowdown is expected. Or perhaps it’s because the headline doesn’t say that, and neither does the picture caption to which you’re probably referring, and this is precisely the kind of cheerful failure that Trump displays every minute of every day.
1
You're assuming the negative prediction is not the news. Where are you getting your information, then? Trump? He of the 10,000 lies (soon to actually hit that number. Like, literally)? It is news, just because you and Trump, don't like it, doesn't change that.
1
What's bad for America is good for Democrats. Run on that.
6
Do your you mean the Republicans causing/doing bad things for America has the one positive side effect of aiding Democrats once even the Republican supporters start to suffer?
No one seems to include that Mr. Tramp had a casino go bust in Atlantic City putting many many people out of work. And now he runs the U.S. of A.? Does the buck really stop with him? Does one really believe that having more factories means we will have more jobs? The kapitalist "Captains of Industry" only care about money. They don't care about you. Tsk, tsk.
4
There are worse things than recessions and if it takes one to make sure that Trump and Republicans are not re-elected, so be it. Remember, if Hitler had not benefited from an uptick in the trade cycle, there would not have been WWII.
2
Until it crashes, right? And then it will be someone else's fault. Let me guess who he'll blame first....Obama?
8
If the economy does well he will strut like a peacock. If it turns south it will be the fault of "The Guy Behind the Tree" not him.
same old same old, wise up NYT
5
Interesting how you gave Trump 'ownership' of the economy after a relatively weak quarter. Well, not interesting for the NYT, but predictable.
5
Trump's GOP court jesters are claiming that we can't lower the age for qualifying for Medicare because it will raise the deficit by two trillion dollars in 20 years or so.
Funny, how they purposely overlook that Trump has done that in two years.
4
Seeing what happens after April 15 may be interesting!
Most people I know who talk about taxes this year state their reactions, and shock, in terms of “being stabbed in the back,” given the deductions taken away, the gross handouts to the rich, and other difficulties with even understanding all the changes with virtually no help from IRS or employers.
1
The stock markets are a mess, interest rates are up, and I have to pay 30 percent more in taxes than last year even though my income is much lower. All thanks to the President and his ever- faithful GOP entourage. This team is worse than the 1962 Mets.
3
You cite the decline in "growth" for this year and the end of last year.
The concept of "growth" is about as vague as any economic measurement can be. Economics is not a science; that can be demonstrated easily. So the constant talk of growth, no growth is not really worth much.
Does the united states have a good health program and cover all of its citizens? I read that almost 80% of americans live pay-check to pay-check. We are all aware of the horrid disparity in wealth in this country. Our prisons are far more packed, percent wise, than any other country.
Read some of the book and articles by Chris Hedges, a very smart/wise person. His theme exposes an age of terrifying decline and heightened self-delusion.
You get my point: the measure we call "growth," is without any meaning and I would expect the NYTimes to know that.
Americans should take to the streets and demand to have both the Mueller Report and the withheld Trump tax papers. We live in a democracy that has no call for secret, hidden factors.
There cannot be satisfactory governance that is cryptically applied, especially by people who are deliberately hiding information.
National security? Exactly who is compromised by the Truth?
6
Include Trump and the GOP fiscal hawks owning massive budgetary deficits and increasing national debt! Shortly before his inauguration, he told Sean Hannity that he would “balance the budget very quickly … I think over a five-year period. And I don’t know, maybe I could even surprise you.”
It will be interesting to see what an Administration as criminal and wholly corrupt as Donald Trump's will do to the U.S. economy. My bet is that it will do about the same as the last Administration of it's kind, only, Donald Trump will probably be able to do in four years what it took George W. Bush almost eight to "accomplish".
You must admit that the power of the GOP to decimate a perfectly good economy is getting better and better all the time.
2
@Chicago Guy
i hope that you are wrong but i fear you arent
when Bush started the war in Iraq he had the entire nation behind him as a reaction to the 9/11 attacks
he could have declared war imposed a military draft raised taxes and all the rest that FDR invoked after Pearl Harbor
But no he borrowed and lowered taxes increasing our National Debt to an obscene amount
Then he led us to a recession that Obama brought us out of but couldnt raise taxes because of the delicate condition at the time of his departure and the resistance of Congress
Now we have a president who again lowers taxes and increases our debt by a double obscene amount
In the end their is no unity with economic policy and i cant seeing it ending well
the last time we had that unity was with W and he missed the opportunity
In 2019 when Trumps recession comes it needs to be long and hurt a lot of his base. Since 1945 there has been a major recession in every Republican administration. Since they continue with failed policies give more money to the rich with welfare for the rich and tax breaks, they support tariffs against Russia and China which has been done in the past and failed. How these fake whacked politicians like Trump manage to get elected is very sad and will eventually give us another 1928 big depression.
2
"(Trump) said he would nominate Stephen Moore... to a seat on the Fed’s board of governors."
As info, numerous news outlets are reporting that Mr. Moore owes $75K to the IRS and that the IRS has placed a lien on his house.
Another really fine example of the administration vetting a candidate for high government office. Brilliant incompetence.
11
@smithtownnyguy
Nothing new here. Tax cheats gotta stick together.
How is China Trump's rival. He has purchased several licenses for the use of his name there to be used in various businesses, he walks into his rallies wearing clothing he has manufactured in one of his overseas sweatshops - for instance, his ties, shirts, and money-clips are made in China.
So why are journalists letting Trump get away with calling this "rivalry".
Remember folks, Trump is the "Teflon Don". He takes blame for nothing. Everything/Anything is not his fault. Our Republic is first, Trump second.
1
With all the forecasting and statistics, the economic situation of the vast majority of Americans is getting worse and will continue to do so through 2020. The only way to beat Trump is to nominate a Democrat who really wants to reject business as usual or the incrementalism of those frightened that real change means they will lose some of their wealth and privilege. That means not getting suckered, by the mainstream media, into supporting faux-progressives such as Biden, Booker, Gillibrand, Harris, O'Rourke et al. It also means not voting for your local favorite son candidate in the primaries, so that a real progressive cannot get nominated on the first round at the Democratic Convention, throwing it to the candidate of the bosses in ensuing votes.
We have to remember the extent to which any president can claim to "own" the economy. As it stands, economic growth has improved despite Trump's policies, not because of them. https://madsociologistblog.com/2018/02/13/the-truth-about-the-obama-trump-economy/
1
The Economy is getting tired of all this winning.
5
The US will eventually pay for its decision to turn its government over to a rude, fast-taking uninformed minor TV celeb with a checkered history of bad financial deals.
It is astounding that this nation continues to accept Trump's refusal to show his taxes -- especially after he had promised to release them if he won in 2016. He knows he will lose part of his 'base' if they learn about his finances.
Only an absolute fool trusts a dealer who operates in secrecy.
3
The sugar high comparison is the following: You took a$1T loan in 2018 (deficit busting tax cuts) and used it to spend on your self or your business. You will do it again this year and next year. You juiced a few tenths of a % into the economy which barely pays the interest back on the new debt. At some point you pay the piper for the out of control deficit. I guess that's when the next Democrat wins the WH.
2
You people are so funny. With Russiagate finally over, no collusion, no obstruction, no conspiracy, you are now finally talking about the economy. Where was all of this talk when the economy was blossoming at 3% growth? Criticizing the Trump economy is now your new talking point?
4
Truly does anybody counting on the impact of Brexit.
UK economy is not a small economy at all, in these percentages , world economic look with brexit at current situation can not be upward.
2
There are a number of underlying trends in the economy that make it easier for it to handle anything Mr. Trump can do to it. The digital economy brings efficiencies that are still only partially implemented into the workforce. New technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, 5G networks, Internet of Things, Biotechnology will continue this process unimpeded by anything Mr. Trump can do to it. The best thing Mr. Trump can do is to unleash the technologies that combat climate change but it is almost certain he will not. The sad fact is that he is limiting the economys potential by just doing that. And the headwind introduced by protectionist policies also do the same.
92
How do people or businesses or governments afford to pay for all these wonders?
@Ivehadit
He will limit everything he doesn't understand because it takes work. He will limit everything that does not directly affect him and his cronies - aka healthcare.
10
The Obama recovery was slow and painful due largely to the antipathy of the prior administration. I don’t like Trump as a person, but there’s no doubt that a combination of policy and legislative changes have unshackled this economy. The best part about it is that it is pulling the truly marginalized back into the workforce and giving them a shot at being reskilled in the best possible way - by working. And here in the Bay Area, it’s at multiples of minimum wage. Having a president who doesn’t dislike business and understands how the commercial world works is clearly a good thing.
55
@Marc - I'll bite. How exactly did Trump do this?
104
The Obama recovery was slow because it derived from a financial crisis, the most difficult hole to climb out of. Especially when the R controlled Congress offered no help.
133
@Marc I know his deregulation of air, water, pollution and giving our land away will come back to bite us. Of course, the people that die from the air, water, chemicals will be down the road. But did you hear Roundup Monsanto was the cause of man's dealth. More suits to come. Hopefully, Roundup will be off market in a few years and big agr won't be tainting our food supply with chemicals.
62
That Obama wave the economy has been riding since Trump took office is about to crash onto the rocky shore of tariffs and deficits before the 2020 election. If you think Trump's 10-point polling gap in disapproval/approval was going to close before next year, think again.
247
Obama, wasn't he the guy that put record number of people on food stamps and disability? The guy that tanked our economy and doubled our debt?
Why did he wait until he was out of office to fix the economy?
15
@Dan W Dan you are aware of the situation President Obama took over. Sorry but his administration prevented a depression closer to the great depression. Before he took office banks were closing massive numbers of people were losing their jobs. Please research the economy at the end of President Bush,s last term and then rethink your biased view.
82
@Dan W
You're confusing Obama with the younger Bush. You know, the president who crashed the economy back in 2007-2008?
76
The US economy is a component of the global economy. The global economy is slowing down which is slowing the US economy down. The trade wars, turmoil, threatening the EU with economic retaliation, the destruction of multilateral agreements and the fear that all of these things create are all contributing to a global slowdown. People don't spend money when they are afraid of what tomorrow will bring.
The irresponsible tax cut that Trump made has boosted all that it will boost. This was predicted by real economists.
Now Trump wants more tax cuts. He won't get them and should not get them. He also wants massive cuts to federal spending which will cause the economy to contract. Take a look at his new proposed budget for the amounts. They are huge cuts.
Trump now claims he wants a big infrastructure spending bill. The Republicans will never pass that. They only cut taxes. They don't build things.
So there is nothing left that Trump can do to stimulate the economy and in fact, his global policies are causing the economy to contract. So yes, he owns it now. But we have to pay for it.
356
@Bruce Rozenblit They cut taxes for billionaires and throw a few pennies to the lower working class. He has implemented an enormous tax increase to the working class in high tax areas.
64
@Bruce Rozenblit OMG! Please don't allow the World economy to be dependent on Donald Trump! No one knows less about the Economy than the Stable Genius.
57
@Bruce Rozenblit you make sense. I am 73 and made less(thanks to a contracting segment of the economy and age discrimination ) then I did the year before, and I still had a tax increase. My wife and I are comfortable in-our sundown years, but with one of us facing cancer, while trying to payoff college debts surely scary. And the 1% just grabbed an extra $5000 in taxes and the talk of repealing Obama care and ignoring the effects of climate change means a rough future for the family. And the Trump admin does not care
21
You should be happy that the nation's economy is being shaped by a stable genius. What could possibly go wrong?
4
You’ll need to check with HAL on this one.
Lowest unemployment in decades
Record low unemployment for minorities
Highest GDP in decades
Fixing the trade imbalance
Companies coming back to America with their Billions
Fixing illegals taking American jobs
Economy roaring for the first time in decades
Manfacturing sector coming back
So far, so good!!
7
@Dan W please give the citations for companies and manufacturing returning. Please also discuss inflation, tax cuts and deficits. Do not forget company buy backs and that wages did not improve.
The stock market is volatile and only the big players in our economy are winning. Mean while my insurance rates increase, my grocery bill increased and my wages do not increase to keep up with it all. Dan this country can do better for all not just the top 1%
ps Immigrants actually have a positive impact on the economy. I know there are not many farms in Milwaukee but drive up highway 43 and visit a big farm, it will open your eyes.
11
@Dan W - I'll bite. Which American jobs has Trump saved from undocumented immigrants? Please provide the source for your information.
8
@kah
Spot on response. I am right behind you about every expense constantly going up - groceries, utilities, insurance, etc. I've always said that if my butt shrank as fast as my pay check, I would be as thin as Twiggy by Easter.
I had to chuckle at Dan's statement of "Fixing illegals taking American jobs". When was the last time an "illegal" wasn't doing back breaking labor in a farm field or doing landscaping, bussing tables or cleaning office buildings?
7
All the problems Republicans and establishment Democrats have created are dwarfed by their opposition to ameliorating climate change and their efforts to blame Russia for everything bringing us closer to a nuclear holocaust. Their craven fear of losing their privilege and wealth has brought all of us closer to extinction.
Thirty years ago there were no AOCs or Omars in Congress, no Tulsi Gabbards or Bernie Sanders running for President (you have to go back to FDR to find such), no rising might in both China and Russia opposing US imperialism, no favoring of Socialism over Capitalism in the younger generation, no talk of the greed of the 1%, no such widespread distrust of the mainstream media!, no widespread fear of our government, no increasing inability of all but the biggest corporations to make real profit (i.e. without manipulating the financials), no non-union resistance to corporate power (though guided by unions), no great anger among the vast majority of Americans on how they are treated economically (albeit some of it disastrously misdirected). All this is happening despite years of a massive onslaught of mainstream media propaganda trying to fool the American people, and many other people overseas, into believing what is evil is good, and what is good, is either evil, weak or a fraud!
Investing in the rich has never produced anything except oligarchy, record income inequality and inevitable Depression.
The timing of the Trump Depression is difficult to predict, but Trump will own it....and he and his Grand Oligarchic Party wrecking balls will deny it against all obvious incriminating evidence.
Don't let your children grow up to be GOP wrecking balls.
101
I'll wait to see what Krugman has to say.
2
@Jan
He'll tell you what you want to hear(aka Trump = bad). Just like the rest of the media telling you Hillary will win by a landslide, or collusion is a foregone fact, or Trump will be impeached.
Maybe its time to get out of your bubble.
2
“Thanks a bunch” to the reactionary, duped Americans who elected this boorish nothing.
21
One political problem with how the economy reacts is that it is very possible that Trump's chickens come home to roost when he is (?) out of office. Then a lot of the electorate blames the next (Democratic?) President for the ills brought on by his impulsive ways of interfering with world trade - not to mention taking the US out of the group negotiating Asian trade.
One ( more) thing the guy ( with his BS in Economics, literally) definitely doesn't get is that while, yes, Chinese manufacturers have stolen and copied and the Chinese government played with the exchange rate to keep its goods artificially low priced, we DO NOT WIN if its economy tanks. We are too interrelated.
And many of the tariffs he has imposed are going to damage small businesses here, not to mention drastically increasing prices for those whose wages here can't handle inflation.
The assumed prediction now, in investment publications, is recession on the near horizon.
5
oh now he owns this.. so no more its obamas and Clintons. Your hope that the economy tanks (which is expected due to its regular cycles) is sickening. You should be ashamed of yourself.
6
Economic growth is a function of productivity and labor force growth, which are being hurt by Trump's ACA sabotage, trade wars, education and anti-immigrant policies. Why is this?
First, a little background:
The Fed's latest forecast has GDP growth falling:
2019 2.1%
2020 1.9%
2021 1.8%
This is because the sustainable rate of growth (i.e., in the absence of large debt increases) is the sum of productivity growth and labor force growth, which have averaged 1.4% total since 2010. Growth on top of that is mainly debt additions.
Stated another way, GDP = Output per Worker x Number of workers. Output per worker is productivity.
If you want to improve productivity, businesses will have to invest in technology, increasing the capital per worker. We also can educate our workers more. Free tuition, anyone?
For more workers, look to immigration, filling those 7 million job openings as fast as we can.
Further, the main reasons prime-aged 25-54 workers are outside the labor force are care-giving (for women) and illness/disability (for men). Funding for day care / pre-K and elder care will help get women into the work force, while addressing the opioid crisis and expanding healthcare will help the men.
Trump is using debt as a substitute for real pro-growth policies.
9
First, this piece belongs on the Op-Ed page, rather than being presented as objective analysis. Most economists, as well as the NY Times itself, have stated that while the President typically gets the blame or credit for the economy, his impact is smaller than the myriad of other events which drive the economy. But more importantly, this piece tries to forecast what the economy will do between now and 2020, which in reality is a fool's errand. At the same time as you are publishing op-eds which point out that too many of us were hoping that the Mueller Report would be the end of Trump, you are now hoping that a slowing economy will be the end of Trump. Instead of relying on outside forces to do the work for us, if we want Trump out, we are going to have to vote him out. And that will require the hard work of pushing and publicizing popular legislative positions between now and 2020.
10
the blue states are about to be hit with the lack of deductions for SALT. want to see a slow down in consumer spending, the engine of the economy, just wait 10 weeks or so.
20
“At the moment, the risks from the downside scenarios loom larger than those from the upside ones,” Charles Evans,
Then perhaps with merely the force of all of our prays we can push the economy completely off the cliff just to spite Trump. He may think he just won the last round but we'll show him what we're really made of.
1
Mr Trump really believes in his powers of greatness to stimulate the economy and make America greater than it has ever been before. But delusions of grandeur aside, does Trump really own the economy or does the economy lumber along based on many factors entirely unrelated to anything any POTUS can do? In any case Trump need not worry. If the economy slumps he can always blame it on Obama and the Dems.
1
“Unemployment has dipped to 3.8 percent. Inflation remains subdued, and wage growth is accelerating, economic growth stays above 3%.” But all liberals can say is “watch out for the collapse that is coming.” Yea, and Clinton will win and Trump colluded.
6
Well -- I guess it's a positive to get the NYT into the camp of "It's Trump's Economy"
It was his right after the election -- everybody I know that was in any business changed the way there were thinking about the next 4 years.
I'm in the manufacturing business. It's a rocky road --we have moved some production back to the USA. Most people in my position are afraid we will not stay the course in fighting China -- they are the big problem ..... the question is can we stay the course and take some pain to overcome what we all know must be done.
The problem is much of the news media and this paper would rather attack anything Trump VS do what needs to be done .. really explain how tariffs and quotas work ... think I have read one decent story an that was about how hard it is to import into Germany. China really is the problem .. so is Mexico and Vietnam ... as they are a vector of goods from China coming into the USA
4
When the economy tanks Trump will surely blame the Democrats or pehaps even Obama if he can get away with it.
Most economists agree that the foundation for the growth of the economy in the past two years was laid during the Obama presidency. The probable downturn to come will be the legacy of Trump's term in office.
4
When the slowdown comes, Trump will have to own it. And it will come as the tax cuts slowly lose their pull. The world economy is slowing, in part because of Trump's crazy tariffs. And where are all those manufacturing jobs he was supposed to create? Oh, that's right--because of the tariffs and the even more extreme inequality in the distribution of wealth, jobs that pay well are being destroyed.
5
I bet that this is the biggest threat for Trump folks vision of 2020. As long as Trump is making money in the stock market, greed will turn a bling eye to all of the drama.
Yesterday’s position on the ACA was likely to distract from a lot of things: The REAL Mueller report, the dismal forecast for the economy and Trump’s claim that it was okay to release the FULL Mueller report.
1
So, Obama will stop trying to pretend the economic results of Trump’s Presidency are all all due to Obama and the economy under Obama was all the fault of Bush?
Wow.
2
You mean the Koch Network owns our economy don't you? That is the Republican Party's base. Unlimited amounts of money. Let's get clear on this. Republicans are falling in line for campaign contributions. The average citizen means nothing to them.
4
I don’t think “the slowing economy poses a test for the president’s policies”.
~40% of voters will support him no matter what and will let him openly lie about it.
6
Trump will still blame others when the economy stalls, and his base will believe him.
4
The Trump response. More smoke, more mirrors. The Republican solution: More tax cuts that loot the Treasury for the 1%. The result 22 trillion in national debt and no universal health care. Wake up folks.
7
He owns his dad's money too. So let's not forget he starts with a large tail wind.
4
Trump is bankrupting the country. That does not equate to a strong economy.
8
I'm generally disgusted by Trump's personality and weird leadership style. But the economy is *booming*. It's undeniable, relative to 10 years ago. And I agree with his stance towards China. They don't play by the same rules as everyone else and we've been trampled by their trade advantage. Prior leaders didn't have the courage to walk away from China because of Big Business, and fears of slower growth. I'm ok to pay a little more (or not buy at all) for that next Rubbermaid storage tub.
28
@Mike it's undeniable if you compare to 10 years ago, after the previous R administration crashed the economy and walked away. But not compared to 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 or 2 years ago.
That said, I totally agree with you about paying more than just getting the cheapest box imported from China. Some sort of Anerica first capitalism with good worker protections (like a working minimum wage and health care) seems the way to go. Yeah we a little more for everything, but I don't have a problem with that
10
@Mike i thank obama. he's was responsible for 8/10 of those years. trump just hasn't screwed it up (yet).
28
@Mike The economy doesn't turn direction like a car. It takes quarters or years and certainly doesn't spin on one person's whim. This is the last administration's measured approaches in response to the previous administration's overstimulation then 9/11. this administration is overstimulating...what do you think is the likely outcome?
11
And Democrats don't care. If one looks at the last 60 years of Dem/Rep governance ones see that the the US economy gets rolling under Democrats, slows down and crashes under Republicans. How many times? When the crash comes the austerity for the poor begins. When the good times roll the rich get tax cuts. When the crash comes infrastructure falls apart. This cycle has become an ever widening circle. One could bemoan and marvel even at the lack of infrastructure growth under Obama given the incredibly low rates of interest but now that ship sailed and the circle widens further to cuts in social services. Fallout from unending corporate socialism masked by and for the soft totalitarianism of Neoliberalism. But it did take two to tango. Democrats have gone along with this, participated in it even. Colluded. Oops, I forgot, there was no collusion.
56
@Joseph Who fought for getting the people some help? Not the GOP senate or House that for sure. blatantly called for austerity and clearly to not 'give handouts' to the people. banks only on the GOP watch.
13
@Joseph: I don't get your point. You clearly describe how much better Dems manage the economy, then direct all your ire at the Dems for not being perfect while not wasting a word of criticism for the robber baron Republicans who actually cause the problems in the first place. Apparently you prefer starvation to half a loaf.
11
@Joseph
Obama pushed for greater infrastructure spending, but it was nixed by Ryan and McConnell.
9
The lessons learned here for each individual and those corporations that are responsible is that we own this economy including through our consumption and purchasing choices. Choice is power; choices have impacts. In the midst of the anti that appears like it’s intent on burning our systems, may we realize that we need to be the change the world needs and act with collaborative approaches that will instead sustain us.
2
@Jerry
We need to tone it down, not ramp it up.
Everything he wanted?
While interest rates aren't currently rising, they areal have risen from .66 when he go elected to 2.4 today. Also, while there were tax cuts, they were not cut to the level asked.
He has gotten some if what he has wanted, but clearly not all.
John
3
@John
The rate on my variable rate mortgage has gone from 3.25% to 5.625% in the last 12 or so years and is likely to go up again in December.
1
@John
Well he got the exploding deficit, and he didn't want that.
He got the stock buybacks, and he didn't want that.
He increased the cost of imported goods, and didn't want that.
He increased the trade deficit and didn't want that.
5
@Martin
"Well he got the exploding deficit"
The spending to rebuilt our military was held hostage with the ransom being a budget including unwanted spending.
"He increased the cost of imported goods,"
The cost increase went to tariff money that reduces the deficit, your first item.
"He increased the trade deficit and didn't want that."
The CNN article published yesterday claims
"The monthly US trade deficit fell by nearly 15% in January, thanks largely to a shift with China as the two countries continue to negotiate a new trade agreement."
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/03/27/politics/trade-deficit-china/index.html
John
1
Poor Trump, he will not be able to blame Obama anymore. So whom will get blame if the economy turn bad?
22
It seems to me that when the DJIA rose by almost 10,000 points since the 2016 election, you were more than happy to “blame” Obama for that, too. Either way, you won’t allow Trump to win.
2
@Wilbray Thiffault
As if you had to ask...
"[Insert female Democrat] is such a nasty woman."
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@Wilbray Thiffault
Hilary, of course.
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Trump owned the economy the day he became the President and not now. The Times appears to be putting this sign of some future weakness as the main news today because it hopes to create a phycological effect today to really affect the economy by the time of election. Times and other liberal media and fake news thought Russia collusion was enough to remove Trump, but since it collapsed they need something new to defeat him in the next election. So the negative spin! It is not going to work.
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@Alex E
Perhaps a seminar in how national economies work might interest you.
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@Alex E What is a "Phycological effect". This must be something from the Deep State that only Republicans can detect.
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@Alex E
Nope. Economies don't turn on a dime. Just like the horrible consequences of the Bush administration stuck around for the beginning of Obama's presidency the positive effects of Obama's presidency have lingered into Trump's. We will soon see what kind of damage his ignorance and dishonesty has wrought.
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The wonders of the internet allow us to revisit 2011-12 when it was decidedly unpatriotic for Republican hopefuls to "root against" President Obama's economy. Go ahead - google it. I suspect NYT will lead the herd in a different direction this year with a GOP incumbent.
*concentrates hard*
I'm... I'm sensing this pattern with executive administrations run by... A certain political party. Democ... No, not them. It's Republicans, yes, that's becoming clear.
They... Come into office during an upswing in the economy, proceed to cut taxes and deregulate things, giving the economy a short term goose, which then results in a crash. Somehow during these crashes the rich get wealthier. The average person, finding it harder to get by, elects a Democrat, who then spearheads a recovery. Because capital had used the market dip to consolidate ownership, the average person, who is not largely invested in the market, doesn't see the immediate results of the recovery, gets frustrated, and votes for a Republican.
Rinse and repeat.
You may thank me for my clairvoyance. I predict that the Trump administration's economic policies will lead to a crash but somehow through it all the very wealthy will get even wealthier, while things get harder for your average American.
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@Dan
Just like all of Trump's bankruptcies caused losses for others but somehow he kept his own pockets full!
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Who owns the exploding deficit?
How many times before we understand that dumping billions of tax-payer dollars into Defense is going to generate these "good" numbers?
Amazing how the radiant glory of Mammon can blind a man to the truth of fiscal reality.
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You have got to be kidding me! If the economy slows down, he will blame anyone and everyone except himself. And the sheep will believe him.
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That’s exactly what I said. He will take credit and inflate his numbers with the right wing propaganda machine and if things go south blame his enemies.
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@Mathias Maybe the Big Baazzoo will deliver a knockout punch to himself and the party of dog-robbers he represents.
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A grievous error appears in this article when the writer gave in the impulse to use "popular" terminology instead of sticking to economic facts. There is no such thing as a "sugar high" of any kind ever found anywhere and surely Twinkies have never appeared in any serious discussion of the economy. This is the Times not Disney.
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It’s a layman term used by economists. I’ve seen it for years. It’s an influx of capital, typically to the wealthy only in some form, that the results in pumping up Wall Street. But it has no lasting long term benefit as its typically the movement of capital for the benefit of capital alone.
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@Betsy Herring Besty I suggest you read the article again. The "Sugar High" analogy was part of a quote from Kevin Hassett, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Do you know for whom Kevin works? Funny thing is, Kevin is arguing against the "Sugar High" analogy, but you seemed to have missed that salient fact.
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This article doesn't point out that the white house was actually incorrect in their growth predictions for 2018 once the actual numbers for Q4 (not projected) started coming in, and the real growth was 2.9%, not 3.1% - yes, that .2% does make a big difference when you're talking about one of the largest economies in the world.
This article also doesn't point out that with inflation the actual wage increases we've seen is just over 1%.
Pay attention America, politicians can lie but the numbers cannot.
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Meanwhile roads and bridges are falling apart. There’s no way he invest in infrastructure with the deficit the way it is.
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@Craig
Throwing out the tax cut as the crowing achievement of the Trump-GOP axis meant this was off the table, and that many other needed programs will be set up for cuts.
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@Craig: You are right. On top of that, Pence wants us to go to the moon, again. Cutting into NASA's scientific research funds for expensive engineering projects that will have meager scientific payoff. Meanwhile, our icecaps and glaciers are liquidifying, ocean levels rising, temperatures soring, tropical pests invading, crops withering, wilderness burning, human diseases increasing, with nary concern for managing these problems and especially, improving research to nail down what is responsible for climate change and engineering climate control. It is as if Nero were fiddling while Rome is burning.
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@Victor Mark
I agree 1000% with you. I was stunned when I read that Pence wants to go back to the Moon. Why? Been there, done that. What more could anyone possible learn?
Concentrating on our environment is what should be imperative.
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It's always brightest before the crash. We've seen this before to some degree with Reagan, Bush 41, and Bush 43. Firstly, they give the plutocracy everything it wants: tax breaks, incentives, deregulation, less accountability. There is a surge in hiring and productivity. Then the engine slows down, the debt and deficits grow too large to ignore, and the problem is pushed on to the middle class in the form of inflation, stagflation, and debt. Following this, there's the election of a Democrat president to clean up the mess. Not a matter of if, but when.
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@Mickey
I really like your perspective and how you laid things out. It has the ring of a NYT Pick.
But how in the world can a Democratic president bring down or stop a deficit that is spiraling out of control? I fear that latest round of tax cuts could be our doom.
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@Mickey - The plutocracy gets everything it wants -except- for customers with money in their pockets. Which is 70% of their business. Details, details.
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@Marge Keller Clinton did it in 1992 with higher taxes which lead to a GREAT economy. Growth, low interest rates (for that time) and surpluses.
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Sorry but this is filling pages. A news story would have a headline about new economic data and report on the numbers. A campaign coverage story (and God help us if those start this early in the cycle) would report on polling data with respect to economic performance under Trump policies. This is the print equivalent of those cancerous time-filling pieces on 24 hour TV news networks, where instead of reporting on facts and data and only when there is something to report, we have to get a constant update on whether the state of reality is good for Trump or bad for Trump.
This is exactly the sort of obsessive coverage of him, regardless of novelty of the information or relevance to the headline, that got him the undeserved attention that helped him get elected in 2016. Why must this paper debase itself with "news analysis" that is nothing but publicity for a man whose sole asset has always been a shameless pursuit of public attention?
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@Alex
I agree with you whole heartedly.
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This President owns the ''top'' of the economy, in the sense that a solid and underlining base was developed by President Obama and Democrats over a 7+ year period. (which was the longest private job growth in U.S. history)
When I talk about the ''top'' of the economy, then I am talking about the MASSIVE redistribution of wealth from the poor and middle classes to the rich and corporations through tax theft.
On top of that, there has been a trade ''war'' established through subjective and crushing new republican taxes (tariffs). Then, with tax payer money, certain sectors (farming) have been propped up by billions. (Socialism)
> Aye, the President owns it, because he has broken it.
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There was so much potential for the economy Trump inherited to do so much good---instead he blew on making his friends richer and the middle class poorer---
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@Amanda Jones:
Agreed. Sounds familiar: think Clinton handing the reins to Bush 43 in 2000....
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@Amanda Jones yea there was potential alright. Thanks, Obama.
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Why, reading this news analysis, do I get the sense that this writer would like to see the Trump — and hence, our — economy go south? He talks of China and the European Union and then interjects that President Trump considers them rivals, unlike the rest of the country that believes they are our trading buddies. Of course, they are our rivals and would be glad to eat our lunch, if we let them. The hope of every American should be that job growth continues, tax cuts do what they’re supposed to do, and the overall economy continues to grow. And if that means Donald Trump gets another term in office, then so be it. Political fortunes aside, the economic health of the nation must come first.
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@Joe Gagen
Trump's policies have made all of us in Asia totally distrust USA.
You are slowly being avoided and sidelined and soon enough, you will be ignored.
USA deserves the President it elects.
Everyone else is disgusted.
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@Harry G
A little under half of the US elected him. Have pity on the rest of us.
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If Hope is all we needed to make things happen then not only would the crash of 2007-8 not have happened, but Trump would not have gotten a single term.
I am concerned that Trump folks or the ones who support him for the money they thought that he could bring them are getting desperate enough to blame his detractors and not his policies for the surely coming “sugar low”.
I never liked Trump much EVER, but you cannot seem to separate that from the reality that his policies are bold, brash and doomed to fail. It is his ego that leads him to ignore his advisors. Now he reaps his rewards.
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All those years at Wharton are finally paying off!
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@John Great comment! he probably learned it at his first two years at Fordham University before transferring to the University of Pennsylvania to finish his last two years (never Wharton).
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@Tom
Sis Trump lie about that too? Shocking!
@Tom
Did Trump lie about that too? Shocking!
He can take credit for a good economy, but blame others for a bad economy. He will find a good 'scape-goat' that he will need. He takes advantage of bad news and good news equally.
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All of the control rods are being pulled out of the reactor called the Fake American economy. It is just a matter of time before it hits critical mass again.
Once again, economic hardship and despair will trickle down on Americans. Like fallout and its effects.
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" limited ability to blame the Fed ". Now, exactly when has there ever been limits on His ability to blame anyone or anything, for whatever he chooses ??? It doesn't MATTER. He will be blaming the entire Mueller Investigation on Clinton by next Week, and leading chants of
" Lock Her Up ! ". I guarantee it.
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This reporter does know that the decisive swing votes for Trump didn't come from venture capitalists and stock market investors, but from rust belt communities which have yet to see significant income growth?
Same old journalism, no matter what the reality?
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@jrd They’re not only not seeing income. They’re not seeing their jobs coming back to the US. They’re seeing jobs lost to Trump’s trade wars and tariffs. Hopefully they’ll put it together by 2020.
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"... Trump will have no one to credibly blame ..." Oh, he will find someone to blame and the gullible will buy his argument. He and his followers live in a declarative reality bubble where what he says is taken as truth while being as far from it as anyone can imagine. Until that bubble of alternative reality is burst, he will continue to blame others for any of his mistakes.
Unfortunately, the nation will pay the price, including the gullible.
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We all live in Trump world, a land where POTUS never makes mistakes. He is sometimes ill-served, often by people he has hired, but any bad outcomes are never his responsibility.
His followers will never believe that he is responsible for an economic downturn. He will tell them that the Fed is largely to blame and his own decisions, imposing tariffs and taking unilateral trade actions, haven't had enough time to bring jobs back to America that will continue the boom.
If that corpse on 5th Avenue is the economy, it's not his fault.
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And he can get away with it, because he shot the person in broad daylight.
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The economy was in a Depression for part of the Bush administration and all of the failed Obama administration.
One criticism of Trump, even by the NYT, is how the economy hasn't been this good in years.
This economy is what will get Trump reelected next year.
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@mrmeat
And the lack of health care to 30 millions will defeat him. Trump handed Democrats a massive gift, millions of Americans tossed off their insurance. Trump is the worst president ever elected who cruelty knows no bounds.
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@mrmeat
Depression? No.
Failed presidency? Obama inherited double digit unemployment and cut it to less than 5%. His policies provided health insurance for 20 million people who didn't have any. Not a failure by any measure.
When Trump's economy tanks will you apologize for your lies and ignorance?
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We are living with vast economic inequalities. Trump seems to revel in inequality, so I suppose this is his economy.
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change anything. Investment has not increased nor are manufacturing jobs pouring back into the country. The Fed’s interest rate hikes were modest and appropriate. It’s reversal is political, or are we to believe it didn’t foresee the drag on the econony from Trump’s trade wars? Trump thinks the workd econony can tank but ours can flourish. Who’s going to buy our goods and services. Slow growth in 2019 is just what we need to expose Trump’s incompetence, get rid of him in 2029. and bring back some sanity.
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So the guy who changes his mind faster than a clock ticks is responsible for the nations economy.
Boy are we in a world of hurt.
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Does no one know/care about the national debt? Do you really think it doesn't matter. Maybe that's true....
Until it does. That's when we re-define "pain".
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@T Raymond Anthony
It feels as if we are in the minority here. So many folks are enjoying this "economic sugar high" yet not realizing that the National Debt of more than $22 TRILLION will come crashing down. Maybe not today or next year, but one day there will be a reckoning and it will not be pretty.
The National Debt seems to be like that crazy relative that's kept locked up in the basement. No one wants to deal with the reality but rather pretend that a problem does not exist and continue to live in an alternative reality.
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The only tangeable thing Trumpbhas done was pass a tax cut for the rich, which any Republican President would have done. This ballooned the deficit. Deficit spending stimulated the econony but
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Disagree, strongly:
"Trump Owns the Economy Now, for Better or Worse".
When Obama took office, unemployment was ~10%, and 8 years later, it was ~4%.
And, the DJIA was ~6,600, and 8 years later it was ~20,000.
And, the US was losing 100,000s of jobs per month. Then, the record of consecutive job growth streak was started.
45 has tried to damage a stronger economy but he has failed, so far.
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@PlayOn The economy had tanked before Obama took over, thus it only could have gotten better.
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@PlayOn
On the other hand, let’s not forget, either, how the DJIA rallied by almost 2,000 points after the 2016 election. Not due to the Obama administration, very much to the contrary.
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@Petunia that was people hoping for a quick tax break.
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