Can Polls Be Predictive This Early? Yes, if Old Rules Still Apply

At this stage, Hillary was far ahead of Obama in '08, and Jeb was far ahead of Trump in '16. The only "polls" that count are in places like Iowa, NH, SC, CA, and the rest, where people actually vote. As our Dear Leader would say, "We'll see what happens." Polls now won't tell us. That's for sure.

We know polls can't be predictive this early out. We've known that for a while, but 2016 laid it to rest. In that case, they were wrong right through the counting of the votes. Currently, the theories being used by the candidates seem to almost be an effort to disrupt the polls. They keep saying the same things, but it is so out there that you have to wonder if they know what the president actually does. When they get done seeing what sticks the polling might become more accurate, but by then we'll all know who is in without them. And then there is the fact that most of us have still never seen a pollster so who are they polling?

The CNN bias against Beto which involved embedding the label of lightweight and constant media on only his light moments is appalling. He detailed his legislative changes for getting rid of the electoral college in a Town Hall before anyone else and has reeled out detail on other policies clearly. Mainstream left media ignores this. I watched ninety percent of Sanders rallies through summer and spring and could dictate everything his simple messages . Rallies are are not a judge. Beto is a conscientious capitalist and spoken directly on this. Again no news on this which is different from Socialism. His views on health and education are misrepresented and not understood.Not enough room to detail this here. Again a painful omission.

This is just gibberish. How is a columnist meant to impart an opinion when the column consists of a constant loop of, "Is this right? I have no idea..." Let me make it clear for you, Nate. Biden and Sanders are too old - way too old. Biden won't survive review of his act of putting Clarence Thomas on the bench for life. Sanders isn't even a Democrat. Kamala Harris is going to be the Democratic nominee and she will be elected president next year. Beto O'Rourke, if he has any brains, will be her running mate or disappear. And that's that. Why try so hard to make it look hard?

I voted for Trump, and I think Biden could probably beat him. Bernie... that' s a tossup. Could go either way due to reflexive distaste for his socialism. Everyone else? Trump will laugh all the way to the voting booth. As someone who wants Trump to win, I hope he faces Warren in 2020.

Thank you for seeing Pete Buttigieg as the best candidate out there. Boy, do we need him now.

Meanwhile, Washington State’s Senate passed a bill this week that would drop President Trump from the state's 2020 presidential ballot until he releases his tax returns. Imagine if several states pass such a bill requiring that each candidate for US President mist release tax returns as a requirement to be listed on the ballot!

Warren is too frumpy, I fear she would lose. Harris looks like the real deal but is this country really ready to elect a woman? We're still very misogynistic. There are people, women included, who simply won't vote for a woman and I don't think we can take that chance given the current occupant . Bernie would play very rough on Trump but is he too left of center? So we have Uncle Joe who is tough enough, not too far left (although once in office I think he'd veer in that direction) and has the numbers to defeat Trump which is the only thing that this election will be about.

So Bernie Sanders is a factional candidate? Apparently that is the designation you get if the NYT and the Democratic Party really don’t like you. When most polls showed he would win against Trump more easily than Hillary? Factional candidate? It seems that Trump isn’t the only one with a problem with processing reality.

The only poll that has any meaning, and the only one I pay any attention to, is the one that takes place at the polling station. All the rest are meaningless exercises in punditry.

How much of a factor is Russian interference? I suspect that until 2016, that was never a consideration. And, since neither the congress nor the president nor the tech giants can/will do anything about it, it ought to be a factor for consideration in future races.

Watch out for Beto O'Rourke: excellent communicator, high energy (visited all 257 counties in Texas Senate race against Cruz), young (46), experience (12 years in elective office), charismatic, outstanding fund raiser, great looks, gets people excited, name id, freshness, superb retail political skills.

Polls are part of the election ecosystem. They by itself impact the voters. They are the source of what the pollsters call "momentum". It is a mistake to look at polls as isolated gauges. Pollsters thus are often partisan vehicles. I am not saying pollsters lie but they choose the people they poll in a biased way AND they apply secret correction formulas. Maybe it is time to prohibit polling - as in England for example.

Are these "polls" done by phone? Random calls? Thus...who amongst the population has a home phone. Now who amongst that population answers a random phone call? Polls are only as good as their gathering metrics and size.

2 problems still exist. #1- the Dems still don't have a really great candidate. Biden & Bernie are too old, the leading women just don't come across as strong enough (like Hillary did, despite her baggage), and the youngsters are, well, too inexperienced. #2- not sure how much weight can be put on the polls right now - do they include a +/- for hacking interference - like they did not in 2016?

How about a combination ticket that appeals to a broad section of the populace of young, old, experienced, diverse? Biden/Harris could be just one example. Ms. Harris could learn the ropes from an old warrior while being second in command. Being president of the United States is probably one of the hardest jobs in the world. And after the carnage that has been brought by Trump, it will require a massive cleanup that can only be accomplished by wisdom, hard work and ethical behavior.

So far, Trump must be sleeping pretty well at night. Once again, Democrats seem poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. With Trump's favorable poll numbers rarely breaching the 40% mark and a majority of the COUNTRY (not just Democrats) saying that they would prefer anyone to Trump, Democratic victory should be a cakewalk. But didn't we feel the same way in 2016? The surfeit of grandstanding is drowning out measured discussion. Everyone seems to be in favor of Medicare for All, but few are defining what they mean. And how do we pay for it? The Green New Deal is a laudable senior term paper, but all-too-easy to caricature. And the trend is for candidates to keep pushing each other leftward. And Bernie and Joe are much too old. Also, there is much in their histories that will be ripe for opponents to exploit in the primaries and general election. It's still early, but even at this stage in 2007, everyone was struck by Obama's intellect, passion and charisma. Thus far, that is still lacking in the current crop. Obama can't run, but how about Michelle?

The Democratic nominee in 2020 almost certainly will be a woman. Since Gillibrand is polling poorly and Hillary Clinton says she's not running, that leaves Elizabeth Warren (the NYT's favorite) and Kamala Harris. Harris is not ready for prime time, which leaves Warren, who is. Things could change dramatically between now and Election Day 2020, of course, but, if they don't, Trump would crush Warren.

Trump is the oldest person ever elected President, but he's a spring chicken compared to Biden. Biden. Is. Too. Old. Nice guy, but too old.

Midterm elections showed a rejection of old guys... why can't we choose some younger politicians! Not the super young ones, but experienced enough to have some understanding of politics?

There's only one "poll" that matters to me right now. That's the one that keeps saying that Trump has never broken the 50% mark. In fact, he's usually in the 40% range. I expect that number to go lower as even the evangelicals tire of his coarseness.

Run, Joe, Run! Trump will rip your face off!

America needs somebody with experience who is free of the faintest whiff of graft and corruption of any kind. Run Joe, RUN!!!!

I just googled how to pronounce Buttigieg. He looks very promising.

Biden would fill the bill for those looking for the anti-Trump, a seasoned politician, who, to the chagrin of many Democrats, would be able to deal with some moderate Republicans and get some things done in Washington. The problem is that people want change. Trump promised change but has delivered only chaos. Bernie Sanders promises change. Many Democrats think his radicalism will sink him in the general election. That's what Republicans thought about Trump, who did lose the popular vote. There is not much in Bernie's record to indicate that he could any kind of radical change passed and implemented. At any rate, as someone who is 78 years old, I think Biden and Sanders are too old. It does not seem plausible that either one would be active for 8 years, which is called for with a presidential candidate who would make changes. That brings up Warren who also promises to make changes and has delivered on some things. She is about a decade younger than Biden and Sanders and about the same age as Reagan was when he became president and spent two terms making significant changes. Warren has a big electoral problem though, not just because she offended Native Americans, which she did, but also by her lame attempt to prove that she was one of them on the basis of an ancestor several generations in the past.

Nate, You seem to be the one pundit who learned lessons from 2016, and it showed in the last election cycle, all others were salivating and screaming for their favorite horse, but you instead showed restraint and your polls were closer to reality. Based on that, I wanted to ask you, with your expertise, do you see any of the Democrats in the race actually winning the WH? No taking sides, just your honest opinion. I cannot see Sanders getting there for the same reason as Bidden, and the same criticism that is ripe on the left, ‘no more old rich white men’, so can’t see the progressives voting for those two. Warren seems to shoot her foot every other day, not sure any one can take her seriously now. O’Rourke got a record 80m and lost a local election, how can he go on to win the WH? Not sure the others are worth commenting on, they are so far behind no one can seriously think they have a shot. So comes down to the four above. The winner goes against a solid red block that will not even consider looking at the other side, while blue is fractured beyond help. In your educated estimation, can any of those for above win the WH?

Biden seems republican light. He in no way gives me a sense that he will aggressively remove the corrosive elements that the republicans have put into play throughout government agencies. He in no way feels like an agent of change to me or a fighter that will correct the glaring corruption issues.

Joe Biden seems like a very nice man. So did Hubert Humphrey, Bob Dole, Ed Muskie, Mike Dukakis, and Mitt Romney. Bland, or more honestly boring, candidates never win.

The best we can do is use history/opinion etc. like Vegas does to set odds, ie Biden even money, Bernie 2-1 etc.

Polls - how can they even begin to be accurate in this day and age where a lot of folks no longer have land lines. I'm 65 retired and have a cell for my primary phone. Because of the ridiculous amount of robocalls and especially the "Spoofed" ones I do not answer the phone for any number I do not recognize. So how many folks are out there like me whose opinion never is heard.

I hope the electorate starts to look at candidates stances on important issues during their political career, if they do Biden ought to sink like a rock. He is the epitome of Democrats continually meeting Republicans half way as Republicans continued to move off the charts to the right.

I support Pete Buttigieg for president. He's young (37), a Navy veteran, very articulate, and a Rhodes Scholar. Joe Biden should not enter the presidential race. Joe's too old.

At this point, I'm overly wary of metrics, polls and pundits when it comes to predictions involving the 2020 elections. And not only because there's no way of even knowing who the Democratic nominee will end up being -- but because they got it so fantastically wrong last time.

I seem to recall that most pollsters were predicting, right up to the last minute, that Hillary would win. So much for the predictive validity of polls.