The only thing any of us should be concerned with is getting Trump out of the White house. How we do that is irrelevant. Joe Biden may not be the progressive dream, but it does not matter. We need to take the racists out of office. And yes I support Bernie, AOC, socialist government and the rest. But all that will come ro pass with time. Right now there are too many voters left in the electorate who would not vote for Elizabeth Warren or Cory Booker, but would vote for Joe Biden. And don't get me wrong - I would rather the country move markedly left. But that is not going to happen in this election. Trumpists will die out, but they will die of old age. You will not change them. And that is the silver lining in this whole thing, the fact that they are dying and their numbers are not being replaced. Eventually the new generation will take over. Of course I want as progressive a president as possible. But we need to face reality.
I'll vote for Booker, Warren, Harris, even AOC if she was old enough. But if our best chance right now to end this disaster called Trumpism is electing Joe Biden, so be it.
61
@Kagetora maybe maybe not...then there are any who will not be inspired enough to vote....stay at home like they did for Hillary after voting for Obama. people want change and inspiration....
@A & R
At this point I hope people have learned that getting Trump and his corrupt group out of power is all the inspiration they need.
So many Biden supporters in the comment thread find it impossible to mention their admiration for him without mentioning their contempt for the "socialists" and "leftists" in the Democratic Party. They seem to particularly detest Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, or Ilhan Omar, or Rashida Tlaib.
What that portends is that Joe Biden will do well in Iowa, which is 92 percent white; and he might do well in New Hampshire, which is 93 percent white.
But then, of course, comes Super Tuesday, and Joe Biden will not do well at all.
8
Oh ye NYT Picks of short memory. The democratic party lost the election to Trump because of its lack of new ideas and playing fair. Many life long democrats like myself refused to vote for another Clinton who represented the worst of politics. I didn't stay home on election day. I just didn't vote for a Presidential candidate. At yet it seems that all the NYT Picks in support of Biden's candidacy didn't get the message. Today's young voters are looking at a finite window for them and their children to survive on a planet into the immediate future and yet we debate about the Dem's ability to put forth a candidate with tired beliefs and ideas. I'm not worried anymore as a 68 year old man about splitting hairs over nonsense. But, the existence of our planet as a place to support our and all life into the future. God help us in the next election.
4
Poor Joe! His billionaire backers, all Establishment media & pundits agree he's
the one to stop that God awful Socialist Sanders with his talk of actually paying workers a living wage, giving the lower classes education & health care . . . Once those elements get organized they will threaten our property & power.
3
I say Run Joe Run. If he can make a case for his ability to be President then go for it. Heck I would like Obama to run again. Nobody saw Obama as anything worth watching coming out but he just kept getting better on the stump. Some people think we have too many people running, too confusing. But the public vetting process will eventually give us our candidate, a candidate that has been affected by everything she/he sees and hears. A good candidate will stay true to his/her core but will be flexible enough as a politician to bend rather than break. There's my candidate, whoever that may be. With a tip of my hat to Socrates, Vote D to move forward not R to regress.
1
"Joe Biden, apparently on the cusp of declaring his third run for the White House, is caught in a paradox that might be without precedent in modern American presidential politics."
Only talking heads at the NYT, the Daily Beast, and the likes of MSNBC suppose Biden could beat Trump in 2020.
Such "wisdom" got us Trump in 2016.
1
One of these centuries we progressives will wake up and elect the best flawed candidate who can win. Please stop telling me about his flaws. Biden can win. Name one other of the contenders of whom you can confidentially say that about.
Those of you who think he's too old, you're right. Too corporate? Right again. Wrong on Anita Hill? Right once more. Now name me any candidate without flaws. Moreover, name one who you're sure will win.
We must get the most dangerous President in our history out of our house. It's time to evict Trump. That's the goal. We cannot afford to fail. The Sanders lovers must not repeat their blind allegiance to a cause and by doing so, help elect the exact opposite.
2
If the Democrats continue shooting themselves in the foot the the Supreme and Federal Courts will be lost for the next forty years.
3
To help the Dems avoid the trap of campaigning on ideology, Mr. Biden is the best (imperfect, of course) candidate to take the crucial next step: defeat Trumpism, make the evolutionary change Tomasky reveals the Dems need now. But, it needs a two-step strategy, a long game, to build the broader consensus needed for moderate votes (their votes will decide the next president, not those of my fellow lefties -let's be honest). 2 steps:
1) Sen. Biden must allow tacitly, or out loud, he will serve for one term only. It shows creativity with the age/experience conundrum.
2) He and Dems chose a running-mate who satisfies much (though realistically not all) of the views my fellow lefties relish. She will then be the President-in-waiting, will gain 4 years of continual public exposure and direct experience working in Presidential files.
This positions her not only as a different kind of face in the White House, but a battle-tested one. She will end up with strong advantages as best next candidate for the helm.
The Trump fiasco leaves most (not all) Americans seeing the false hope of putting an inexperienced "outsider", and authoritarian, in power. Pres. Biden in a single term can stop the bleeding (and vicious judicial appointments), and start the long process of reversing US downslide. This also allows his female VP the platform and global experience to counter the endless disinformation (from Fox et al, plus the Kremlin) which she and we all will keep facing.
2
Of course with this many radicals there is a path. Win Iowa and win NH and it’s done. He can only lose a long contest.
Biden's defense of busing spells political doom. And then there's Anita Hill, the crime bills, and the rest of the centrist story.
5
I see that Tomasky doesn't mention the Iraq war.
That's a dead albatross for Biden.
He'd suppress the vote, just as Hillary did.
He paid no attention to the plight of average workers during his years as VP.
Should he win the nomination, which is unlikely, he'd likely re-elect Trump.
4
I’m sill “Riden with Biden”.
And no way am I ever going to vote for Sanders. Never.
But he needs Obama’s upfront support if he is going to run. And he should consider pairing up with someone in the primary and run as a team.
Run Joe - run.
1
I don't care if he's a blue chicken. I do care about his age and his sophistication about modern problems that deal with technology and data.
When I listen to someone like Pete Buttigeig speak I hear vitality. I hear a man who lives in this decade, in this century. I hear progress and enlightenment and knowledge of the world as it stands today. I hear a voice that is ready to take on modern problems from a modern perspective.
That's what I want in my next president. The old white people need to retire. Time to move on.
commented a 59 year old white woman...
Joe could also choose Elizabeth Warren as his running mate. That would make a huge difference. If she was willing.
2
I will vote for whoever wins the Democratic primary.
If we all pledge to do that and then vote for our own choice in the primary, then the person who wins will be the best person to beat the president.
4
Please, Joe, abstain from the fray. Lend your voice. Guide where you might. But don't muddy the waters. Your time has past.
4
Say it ain't so, Joe!
1
It's clear from many of the comments that a large contingent of voters are ready to make a Trump reelection possible if they don't get their ideal candidate. Again. I detest not being able to vote my conscience, but this election - like the last - is too important to stand on ideals. What's the good of ideals if Trump has four more years to drag the country down further? Suppose gets the nomination. Do you think they'll be able to sway the independent voters and suburban voters necessary to beat Trump? Maybe in 2024, but not now. Let's be even more optimistic and say the highly unlikely occured: they won. Do you think you'd get everything they promise? Of course you wouldn't. Whoever comes out of this Democratic fustercluck as the most electable needs to be supported. We need Trump out of office so the damage can be repaired. Then focus on real change. In-fighting and denouncing candidates that appeal to swing voters and independents will only help Trump get four more years. So will clinging to your idealism. Turn off the Facebook and network news echo chamber and look at reality.
4
I agree if Biden is strongest...too early to tell...but as I commented a few minutes before you, Biden’s record will be used in the general election to depress votes among blacks, those with college debts, and those vs. Iraq war. Read Alexander Cockburn in current Harper’s to see how much ammunition will exist.
1
Medicare, Social Security, and even public education were opposed as socialistic dreams that would destroy the economy if enacted. They are, in fact, socialist ways of doing things, and our economy has an uneasy mix of socialist ways and capitalist ways of doing things or leaving them undone.
But the force of antisocialist ideology is such that we can only do socialist things when we deny that they are socialist. This makes it hard to do them well or completely and easier to do them incompletely so they can be quietly undone.
Joe Biden is firmly in the camp of denial of our existing socialism. But this denial of socialism concedes the high ground to those who would roll back the New Deal under cover of protecting it, and puts us in the situation of having to run very hard to stay in the same place. We have been here since St. Ronnie, and are losing ground overall, in spite of Obamacare. Dubya's prescription coverage has turned into another way of transferring part of the country's wealth to a particular industry.
Without more honesty about what is going on than Joe Biden has historically shown, the weapons we need to force corporations to behave are missing, and any victories we achieve will be in the context of a general forced retreat.
1
@sdavidc9
In real life, the only team that managed to get healthcare reform that saves an additional half a million American lives a decade done, was that of Biden and Obama.
It's absurd to imagine that he's against universal healthcare only because at the time, the best possible move into that direction was Obamacare.
It's because self-declared progressives refuse to take the democratic process into account that time and again they turn against their own people and as such hand over the entire country to a minority of utterly corrupt Republicans.
Four words: Joe Biden-Elizabeth Warren. Both working class. Would counter misogyny charge against Biden. Let Warren’s energy loose on working eith Congress on a reasonable New Green Deal. And would get the Native vote. ;-)
1
@David Perkins
She would never run with him. Google her testimony before Congress regarding the bankruptcy bill enacted in 2005 and Biden’s condescending and dismissive questioning of her during it.
4
The only reason Biden is being 'seen' as the most popular is because our corporate warlords who own the media tell us he is.
4
I am the same age as Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders and neither should be president because they are just too old.
They would each be 79 on Inauguration Day and 83 years old seeking reelection. Any suggestion of a one-term pledge is absurd. It would make either a lame duck on Inauguration Day.
Only 5.4% of the U.S. population is over age 70. Only 1.4% over age 80, at which point we stop differentiating age cohorts.
Electing a 70-plus-year-old is wrong. Electing a 77-year-old, regardless of gender or race, is stupid and preposterous.
I am a Democrat and a liberal who believes strongly the Democratic nominee must be a woman under the age of 60.
She can balance the ticket any way she wants but what all the pundits and pols don't think about is this:
Through 230 years of constitutional government we have had more than 100 presidential tickets of which but three have offered any choice except two white male candidates for president and vice president.
Maybe it is time for a two-woman ticket. It is certainly no time to elect the oldest president in the history of the republic.
30
@Carl Zeitz:
Ageism isn't helpful.
And Elizabeth Warren is Reagan Republican, while Gillibrand is a long time Republican who worked for Al Demato.
What's her name from Minnesota already managed to tell college students she doesn't care about student debt.
3
"But of course, he has to actually believe he was once wrong on these questions, and this we do not know."
I wouldn't want Biden if he doesn't think he was wrong given today's evolved frame of reference, but is a good liar and can make us believe otherwise. I've had enough of liars in our government.
Here's the thing: given everything we have seen during the last 20-30 years, in particular about the things Biden gets castigated about, if his views haven't evolved, then he's basically just a kinder, gentler Trump. That, we don't need.
1
Joey Biden, as the nuns used to refer to him, is well grounded in the traditional Catholic wing of the Democratic party. His appeal to older Catholics is great and his inclusion of the social justice teachings of the Popes and Catholic Bishop's in his policies is solid. Yes, I do think he could easily beat Trump. However, he would do well to embrace...fully...the so called "socialist" programs of the "new left." Again, these policies are not so new, but historically rank high on the social justice list. Some of us older Democratic voters really like what AOC, Beto and Pete from South Bend are saying.
1
Joe Biden is too old and carries too much baggage. If I have learned anything in my later years, it's that young minds work better than old minds. The Democrats have a number of young, intelligent candidates to choose from but they often find a way to blow elections.
"problematic episodes"? Oh, you mean he actually supported sensible policies such as those favoring border security, rare abortion, reasonable tax rates and intact families? No wonder he has no chance.
The problem is, as Andrew Cockburn's devastating article on Biden’s record in the current Harper's shows, there is a huge amount of other stuff. The GOP isn't going to attack him for those “conservative” parts of his record anyway vs. Trump. It might cost the Trump votes if Biden is perceived as conservative on race relations and sexist. harpers.org/...
But, what the Trump campaign will do is use all of his very conservative positions, plus things like his palling around with people like Strom Thurmond, to discourage blacks voters from wanting to cast a ballot for him. Same with his student loan record. Not going to get those indebted highly motivated to come out and vote vs. Trump. Or his support for the Iraq war or many other aspects of his record Cockburn mwentions. Tomasky didn't deal with that problem.
It is a new era in politics. The first Biden "gaff" will be all over the internet and blow up on Twitter. Not the way to win the primary, convince me it won't happen.
Many of us think that Bernie Sanders is the most popular Dem, and most likely to beat Trump. But never the Republican lite NYT, that pushed the disastrous HRC on us.
Biden's problem is not that he SEEMS too far right; it is that he IS too far right, as are you.
2
The 2020 Democratic nominee will have to get out the African-American woman vote in order to win. Can Biden do that? I don't think so.
2
Change change and & change...that is why Bernie was beloved and why those misguided people voted for trump. Biden is more of the same and will not be able to energize or inspire those needed to work to get out the vote as well as those who need to get out and vote. All this talk of centrism in the ny times.....are you all again going to miss the boat? the center of today is the right of yesteryear. Polls show again and again that the majority of Americans want and support these "progressive" ideas...health care for all, gun control, and bold movement towards renewable energy.
2
Here we go again, looking for the perfect candidate. A person who is without “sin”. Everyone who has so far tossed their hat into the ring has some kind of baggage. Too centrist, too leftist, too far right. Someone who has said something offensive, should or should not have done something.
Wake up people! There is no perfect candidate. All Dems need is a candidate that Trump cannot destroy. A candidate who can stand up to the worst Trump dishes out. My choice is Biden.
24
@B Cohen
The ONLY candidate that Trump cannot destroy is the candidate we decide to massively vote for.
This is a democracy.
Either "we the people" take responsibility and vote him out and replace him with no matter what Democratic candidate (as all of them will beyond any doubt be MUCH better than Trump or any other Republican today), OR we decide to not use our constitutional power to vote and allow a corrupt minority to destroy America even more.
Biden not only would move America into a much better direction, as president, he has a tremendous amount of experience, a heart at the right place, and very high personal moral values. So obviously, he would be a fantastic candidate.
That being said, I'm very excited about the other candidates too, as they all are passionate about what our main goals should be for the next four-year presidency: universal healthcare (through building on Obamacare or a gradual installation of Medicare for all), much fairer access to quality education, important action on climate change, the creation of an economy with quality, good paying jobs, and real, fact-based national security measures (which includes bipartisan comprehensive immigration reform, such as Obama's S.744).
ALL Democratic candidates support these things. But Biden is without any doubt one of the candidates with most experience when it comes to political debates - AND he has an almost flawless half a century record in DC ...
1
If Trump is not impeached and there is no recession Biden is the best hope for victory in 2020. Amy Klochbarer is a possible alternative. Much can change before 2020 but other than those 2 candidates all others seem to me underdogs to carry the swing states needed to prevail in the electoral college. Too important an election to take unnecessary risks.
2
Nate Silver just today on fivethirtyeight.com says that early polling is NOT just about name recognition. I'll go with Nate on that one.
And Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden together garner almost 60 percent of the preference for Democratic presidential nominee in nationwide polling. (Especially see the Morning Consult polls, with their high sample sizes and thus low margins of error.)
So the tired old trope that an old white man can't win the nomination is just that -- a tired old trope.
3
I'll say it for you. None of the women running today can beat Donald Trump. And I can't think of any woman running or not who can beat him with the possible exception of Mrs Clinton if voters who refused to support her can learn from hindsight.
3
In a rational world any of the Democrats would beat Trump badly. But in a rational world Trump would have never been elected. That he was is a function of how credulous many voters were of Trump's promises and how the electoral college turns Presidential Elections into an exercise in statistics, rather than democracy. That said, a center-left candidate such as Biden or O'Rourke (or perhaps Klobuchar) has a better chance of winning, because the false charge of socialism (with the implication of a Cuban style government, rather than, say, a Finnish one) will be pushed on the more progressive candidates.
1
I want to win. Democrats should support the person with the best chance of winning. That may be biden. Democrats, don't let the perfect ruin the good.
6
I'd like super experienced, steady Biden to run on a clear "one term" basis - to right the ship of state, set a better direction, lower the national temperature, reduce the angst, calm the roiled international waters, etc - AND invite a VP who is The Future. What's wrong with a team, as he experienced with Barack?
In the short term, I'd like to see him embrace (metaphorically, as in "compliment") some of the younger folks - not choosing a favorite, but recognizing their value. I, for one, don't think he needs to hurry.
5
Are the Democrats going to blow it again! The Party’s own “Tea Party”, so rigid and power hungry, just as they were in trying to deny Pelosi the leadership, the most effective and knowledgeable speaker ever, will now take aim at the Party’s most winnable candidate. I’m tired of the rancor that they represent. We need some calm and professionalism. Concentrate on winning the Senate and leave Biden alone.
3
As one comment says, the problem in a nutshell - every time he had a chance to defend the interests of people, he chose the interests of the powerful.
And as the article says, he has to actually believe he was once wrong on these questions, and this we do not know.
Setting aside the question of electability, the question is whether Biden recognizes how much he has to change because the country has changed. It would be wonderful if he can do so, and if he can be trusted to keep his word. I’m waiting to see what he means to do when he chooses to run. Right now I’d prefer to avoid another old white male.
3
Mr. Tomasky offers good advice for Biden to try and overcome the three major problems he faces in getting the nomination. He also rightly hints that Biden may not be able to be as contrite as he would need to be. Given the stage of his life and career, that is probably a good bet.
However, Joe Biden is a rather skilled politician. A lot is said about his gaffes ( too much I would say) but he has a strong ability to connect with people and not just the white working class voters. He is also very likeable. Something candidates like for instance, Bernie Sanders, Eilizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton really aren't. This could help him overcome those challenges Mr. Tomasky has correctly presented.
1
@Sal I am a fairly moderate Democrat who grew up in a very red state. I like Warren, I like Clinton, I like Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Harris, Buttigieg, & Booker. I’m okay with Sanders or Biden, but they aren’t my top choices.
I don’t really prefer Tulsi Gabbard or Howard Schultz.
All in all the Democrats have a plethora of competent, innovative, passionate, inspiring candidates. Each time I hear another speech or phone call or video I get goose bumps. I’ll be happy no matter what! Just kick Trump out.
1
Forget Biden, just more of the same old, same old that brought us to this dangerous situation.
3
What a bizarre bit of analysis. The author spends half his words wringing his hands over race and gender, and when he gets to actual qualifications, policy is #3 behind 2 issues that are over 20 years old.
Let’s put Biden’s policy positions and putative viability in context.
In 2016, Bernie Sanders was a political unknown, not a Democrat, who, when he announced his campaign — much later in the process than where we stand now —was the favorite of of 3% the electorate. He had to explain he was running to win, not just to make a statement. He nearly took the nomination despite entrenched disadvantages, not least his own self-description as socialist.
In 2008 Hillary Clinton was the frontrunner until Barak Obama started winning primaries.
In 2016, Clinton’s vote to invade Iraq was only 15 years old, and 10x as important as Anita Hill or the war on drugs. Yet she won the nomination with the support of party activists.
Apparently, any supposed frontrunner status 18 months before an election isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on. Topics from decades ago aren’t impediments; they’re yesterday’s news.
The political zeitgeist isn’t about gender or Trump particularly. The current house was elected on policy, especially healthcare and climate change. The next president will be, too.
5
Shakespeare’s Hamlet once said “To be or not to be”. That’s Joe’s current burning question.
I don't think whether or not to commit suicide is the question before Biden. That's the meaning of the quote.
Thank you far left crazies - you'll truly cost the country a chance at getting back on track. Biden can do it, but like the Bernie supporters last election cycle who said "Bernie or Bust" you cost HRC (no fan of hers, btw) the election.
4
@Thomas Penn in Seattle
Who won the 2016 Democratic Primary contests in Michigan and Wisconsin?
2
@BK
Point taken! Need a 50-State strategy this time. And the Dems are making the same mistake this year letting a socialist who's accomplished nothing other than being a professional protestor, to caucus and leverage the Dem primary process and convention. He and others on the far left or socialist side should start their own party.
1
So many people want to see a candidate who is female, or of color, or of some particular group other than white men. I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous thinking. The only, and I mean only consideration should be will the candidate make a good president, and can they beat the imbecilic criminal who currently defiles that office. Enough already.
10
And now,Mr.Tomasky,address the
Trump paradox.
1
Good suggestions, but the obituary is a bit premature. If most of the Democratic electorate is moderate, as Gallup indicates they are, then it's mostly the minority progressive wing of the party that won't like Biden. They make the most noise, but they're still a minority. If the moderate to conservative Democrats are disgusted by Trump and turn out to vote in the primaries, we could see a repeat of the 2016 Democratic convention when the moderate beat out the progressive for the nomination. Unfortunately, the moderate was a terrible candidate, but hopefully Biden won't be.
I voted for Barack Obama during his, not because of the "world-historic economic meltdown" that was evolving but for three other reasons: Mr. Obama's campaign was so well run, I felt he would bring the same excellent personnel choices and management to his presidency. He didn't didn't choose a running mate who lacked critical knowledge that the middling graduate of a good high school should have. And, he didn't come from privileged circumstances; he had to work every step of the way and did!
4
I doubt Biden would match up well with Trump. He has far too much baggage and it is likely many progressives would stay home if Biden were the nominee. I think a substantial number of voters want much more than to simply "beat Trump". Biden has little else to offer and given his baggage he lacks the critical ingredient: trust.
2
@LH -- yes, they will stay home. The progressives love to come out for the protest rallies, but the one big time it matters, Election Day, they stay home.
2
Mr. Biden’s problem isn’t his race/gender/identity. In reality, he doesn’t stand for anything. He’s a pure representation of the establishment, and the American people are fed up with the status quo. Sure, most would probably argue he’s better than Trump and would win the general election, but that’s true of (Name literally any human here(Except Hillary Clinton apparently)). Real change is necessary and hopefully coming.
3
Here's how Biden wins:
1. He comes up with a slogan to counter Trump. Maybe "Make America Sane Again", or "Make America Liked Again". Do this while pushing on foreign policy, which all the other candidates seem to avoid. Trump has made America a pariah around the world and someone has to repair that. Biden has the experience neccessary.
2. He states up front he will run for only one four year term. Take the age issue off the table. Be President for one year to fix the mess of Trump. This will help with progressives who feel he is not progressive enough.
3. He picks a women VP from the cast of very capable Senate women now running. This also helps with the more progressive wing of the Dem party.
4. He names other top cabinet positions before the general election, not after. Perhaps Elizabeth Warren as Commerce Sec or Treasury Sec. Perhaps Kamala Harris as Attorney General (assuming she is not a VP pick). Booker as Sec. of State. And so on. Trump's cabinet is a diaster and naming the key Cabinet heads will help counter that.
Biden can easily win if he does it right.
2
I'm a black man and I will NOT buy into the "wisdom" that a straight white male is DOA when it comes to the Democratic presidential nomination. What's DOA in my view are candidates who put forward the same tired ideas in the insane hope that somehow this time it will be different. This time Republicans will listen and reach a compromise, and we'll all be one big happy family. Biden, thanks to his many years in the Senate and 8 years as VP, is sadly out of touch with the reality of today's American politics. Should he enter the nomination race, he won't get my vote because he's a straight white male. He won't get my vote because he represents the failed strategies of the past, and it's time to move forward.
4
There are individuals who made mistakes decades ago that were considered corrupt and immoral at the time, things many people today still think are corrupt and immoral, and they get elected. Knowing of Donald Trump, for example, since the late 1970’s left me concluding he was a conman, a liar, a racist, and a cheat. I did not require Michael Cohen to tell me this during a recent congressional hearing.
Somehow, Democratic candidates for office must march to the beat of a different moral drummer and pay the price for twenty- and thirty-year year old actions, some of which are considered “sins” today but many not considered “sins” at the time.
Some things change in society for the good and it is valid to determine whether or not a candidate has changed along with society upon reflection regarding actions that may or may not have been questionable decades earlier. Today’s moral judges, on social media of all things, may have different standards but one cannot change the past.
We need a Congress and a President to enact legislation to get rid of dark money in elections and to reform disparities in the election system we have now, legislation to enact social programs that invest in people, legislation for modernization of infrastructure.
A candidate’s views on today’s issues appear more relevant.
5
Republicans in Congress are terrified of being primaried by Trump if hey cross him, yet most of them would probably win reelection if they survived the primaries. This isn't a Democrat thing alone. Because of the way primaries work (almost all of them including only voters of the respective political party), the independents that swing most elections one way or another have null influence.
Although I submit that the GOP's problem here is much worse than the Democrats'. 85-90% of them are all in on Trump, but those represent only 25%, at best, of the voter population. No Democrat has that kind of overwhelming popularity within the party, at least not yet, so none of them can strike that kind of fear into their own party up and down the ranks. Not even, lol, AOC.
The solution to Biden's problem is Biden himself, along with the fact that while the "democratic socialist movement" is very loud these days, that was NOT the key driver of the Blue Wave of 2018. That's even more true of a Presidential election. The volume is drowning out other voices, but I think voters are more wary than it might seem. It's one thing to answer in a poll that you favor this or the other socialist-type policy. It's another to vote completely that way. After all, polls in Trump country often shows support for some socialistic policies; that doesn't mean those voters wouldn't vote for Trump anyway.
Biden can put himself in that same position. He just has to figure out how, believably.
1
This Biden news distresses me greatly. I could never support Joe Biden...his time has passed and I don't know any Dem or Progressive that is excited about him or will support him. If the DNC forces Biden down our throats as the candidate the Dems will loose again. Listen to the people....corporations are not people and Wall St is not Main St. I wish Biden well but he should exit w/ dignity after many years of political service and not run. Enjoy your life Joe and support the candidate the people want. Power to the people!
2
Never liked him, will never vote for him. Time to retire already!
1
All three problems, yes; but overarching these -- Biden is not bold. Biden is not brave. (Were he either, he would have taken different stances from those that he held on busing, he would have called those witnesses against Thomas, he would have challenged Hillary Clinton and his then boss, BHO.)
The crisis in which the United States, and the planet, finds itself requires boldness and bravery. Biden has only incrementalism and status-quo thinking to offer. He is not the right man for the task.
3
Since the author seems to believe that 'that which was' rather than 'that which I think should be' will determine whether or not the Demos put up Biden--and here the advantage of having little or no political experience becomes obvious--one might add a fourth issue: the 1987 plagiarization of a Neil Kinnock speech. And do you think America will elect a 78-year-old white man to a 4-year term?
1
Rather than tick off reasons why Biden can't win, this article actually does the opposite and lays how out Biden will win. It first innoculates him on the white male "issue", suggesting that Democrats should not vote based on identity politics. While Biden will certainly not forego corporate campaign money, he does seem to be remarkably free of criminal activity for a politician. The Republicans were not able to taint Biden (or Obama) the same way as the Clintons. If you have years of accepting corporate political donations, and an investigation or two into bribery or profiteering, the dots will be connected and you will be convicted by the media. It's a little like people coming forward with harassment charges, no court has to convict you ... the public will view the connection as guilt. So Democrats must learn from the Clinton experience. This election can be about corruption, but only if the democratic candidate can legitimately make the case that elections and govt can be cleaned up.
16
All this assumes people vote on policy and history. Hasn’t the current occupant of the White House shown that not to be the case? Unfortunately, many people simply vote on either party lines or emotionally. I’m reading too many articles about rational voters.
1
Interesting to read many thoughtful pro-Biden and anti-Biden opinions.
But what I really want to read is people stating their opinion, whether strong or weak, for or against, concluding with their bottom-line unequivocal support for whomever gets the Democratic nomination.
I am not American (and these days more than ever I must say I count my lucky stars...), and I will of course therefore not be voting. But if I were, I would vote without even a femto-hint of a second thought for the Dem nominee. Whether it's Biden or Bernie or, for that matter, the proverbial broomstick, it will be a monumental improvement over trump.
3
Specific votes and policy positions aside, Biden partook in a government that contribute d to, failed to comprehend and failed to avoid the current economic and social condition. He is too linked to a government that had failed to serve all the people, and our most pressing needs, but instead has catered to special interests. We do not need a leader who can best rationalize their past; we need someone who is dedicated to he future.
1
Here we go again with so-called political experts pushing for a moderate candidate as the antidote to Trump. I have a news alert for these folks: you can’t get any more moderate than Hillary Clinton. And she lost. To Trump. True—she was not a white male. But even so, one of her greatest faults was her moderation and her inability to stand for anything ambitious. She could not articulate a clear vision for where the United States should go (I.e. Medicare For All) because she felt Congress wouldn’t support it. Congress won’t support any idea that isn’t proposed and fought for. Time for a progressive!
5
There seems to be a fundamental confusion here: Biden is not the guy for 2020 because he is an establishment liberal, and not an actual progressive. We are clamoring for real progressive change, not just to go back to the status quo ante 2016.
Is this not obvious?
2
@joe Ideology is all well and good, but can real progressive change win elections?
2
@mikecody when all these polls show substantial support for higher taxes on the top 10%, campaign finance reform, an end to gerrymandering, fear of climate change, sensible gun control -- all with majority support, I don't see main stream Dems going as far as we need to go, and as far as people want them to go. The question is: can a progressive with the policies polls say we want win in the toxic atmosphere of Trumptime AND the usual henny-penny worries of the Times and DNC?
In a time of deep crisis we need a candidate with the characteristics of our 2008 nominee. Policy is overrated. We need someone who can touch voters viscerally, who can excite those who don't already turn out. Politically left of center, but not so far that they scare away moderate voters or be tainted with the "Socialist" label Republicans are already hanging on the Democrats
Every candidate will have baggage to overcome to get through the nomination and election process. Obama had the radical minister (not to mention being an African American).
Who is that person? I'm not sure yet. It's way too early for us to have to make up our minds. But I'm taking a deep look at Amy Klobuchar. She may check many of the boxes and has possibly already suffered her Rev. Jeremiah Wright moment.
3
Anyone under 67 please.
3
As an old white woman, I'm sick of old white men running for the presidency. I want some young democrat who will appeal to my grandchildren. Help!!!
4
I hope Biden does none of the things that this columnist says he should.
We need honesty. No more spin, no more blowing in the wind. The Democratic party mea culpas and apology tours are disgusting. People are sick of these milquetoast politicos.
I can't tell you how many people who voted for Trump (I voted for his opponent-- very reluctantly) have told me that they did because he never apologized for anything.
@Longue, and for 2 years Truml has had his 5th Avenue moment in spades. Look at the carnage. Hilary spoke a truth that has panned out re: Trumps base. They are debased.
If the Demicratic party refuses to give Joe Biden the nomination because of his race, gender, and age, it deserves to lose to Donald Trump.
5
Biden’s prior attempts to become president were also plagued by stories published in this newspaper and other media that recounted how Biden was caught cheating as a student at Syracuse University law school.
2
Joe's problem is that he's Hillary Lite.
4
Apparently the donors, who now rule the US, like Biden. Pelosi also likes him, perhaps because she is a creature of the donors herself.
If the Dems can't nominate a white male because they have worked themselves into a corner of prejudice, well, har de har har.
1
The Democrats can have their cake and eat it too if they go ridin’ with Biden and nominate a younger non white firebrand female as VP. Biden, because of age could then cede the crown after a term to his VP.
3
We need a GenX-er or Millennial for president with Biden as his/her VP. After all, Biden has proven himself to be a fine second banana.
1
Joe Biden is a fundamentally decent man, with a long history of being a dedicated public servant who persevered beyond a horrific family tragedy when his family was killed in a car crash. He always stayed in touch with the command man. He has been a man loyal to the Democratic party and his country but maintained close friendly relationships with Republicans. He can unify a deeply polarized country. His views were solidly in the mainstream during the era he had them, and he ably represented his Delaware constituents as their Senator. If the Dems don't nominate such a man because he's a White Man, then they deserve to lose. Trump is a weak candidate, and will lose to Uncle Joe, but nominating raving lefties like Sanders Harris, or Warren will make Trump seem a centrist. He will turn them into the second coming of Chairman Mao or Maduro. They would be fools to do so and deserves to lose for sheer stupidity.
If the Dems don't nominate such a man,
3
He’d be the worst. He voted FOR the Iraq War resolution. Anita Hill.
And This:
Stay home, Joe..
2
Biden has evolved and has verbalize his regrets since the debacle of Ms. Hill. It's over. But, nothing, nothing, can compare with Trump and his appointments of crooked and perverse people in positions of leadership. For example the Labor secretary, what's-his-name. What about the unvettable, the incompentent and the unqualified? What kind of person installs verafiable creeps??? Trump. Liar, cheater and conman He always seeks out those who carry a whiff of his own stench. Right now, watch, he is ramping up to go at Venezuela. He has been quoted as saying he "LIKES WAR." He is a
fool in power. He's got to go.
1
We see what a mess Obama left and Biden was his loyal sidekick. That's enough to disqualify him.
1
There is no way the democrats will nominate a white male. It simply is not part of their political DNA. To progressive minds, it would represent a betrayal of all their principles. Sorry, Uncle Joe.
Dear New York Times,
Please stop the incessant articles about Joe Biden.
Let's see coverage of Bernie Sanders and Tulsi Gabbard.
Please don't repeat the damage you did in 2016 when there were six Trump headlines above the fold every day, zero articles about Jill Stein and a only a few articles about Bernie Sanders, all negative.
3
As an anti-partisan, I find the situation rather comical. For all their claimed opposition to racism and sexism, the left itself is intensely racist and sexist.....they oppose all white male candidates regardless who it is, simply because they are white and male.
The left opposes religious bigotry but the left protects its own many anti-Jewish bigots.
The left hates Trump and rightfully hates his playing identity politics.....yet identity politics is the primary strategy of the left and has been the Democrats essential strategy for at least the past 5 decades.
1
Give it a rest, Mike. It's obvious you don't want Biden as the nominee. Just say so. Quit all this other window dressing.
Much as I love Biden, I think he should not run.
He could have won against that idiot Trump in 2016, but he was too devastated about his son's death.
I think he should just go to bed. Seriously, I love the guy, but I want a younger candidate.
Biden, take a rest.
1
Biden for better or worse is a neoliberal career politician. Hi is more or less the same basic package that Hilary Clinton offered. The problem for Biden is he is Biden and the world has changed. And regardless of how hard the NY Times want's to push it, the rank and file democrats most likely want something different.
2
Dear Joe... Do not run for president. You and Hillary and John Kerry voted FOR the Bush/Cheney Iraq War. I will never forgive you for believing the likes of Dick Cheney. Expedient perhaps, but not wise. This redcap says you've got way too much baggage. Think of Jill. Let your wife live out her life in peace. For the record... Beau Biden For President. I could have happily voted for your son Beau in 2020.
1
Biden said that Pence is a decent guy. Sometimes I think Joe is quite off his rocker.
1
Four: He’s too old.
Another complete waste of editorial space talking about individual candidates and personalities and NOT THE ISSUES and POLICIES of the Democratic party.
1
So the Democrats are going to let their racism and sexism against white men kill their chances of beating Trump?
How fitting.
1
It seems even Liberals understand how far left they’ve traveled. But do they care that they’re becoming unelectable? Nope. They don’t. They’ll ride their socialist beliefs into the dust—because being dogmatic and fanatical means clinging to your beliefs—even when they don’t serve your needs.
Result? Trump wins. Again. Get ready for tantrums, safe rooms and therapy dogs. Oh...and grab a hanky while you’re at it.
1
Why does Tomasky imagine he can speak for "the Democrats?"
New York Times, where do you find these guys?
Joe Biden? Really? Among a passel of fresh faces — some, with big ideas — you’re wringing your hands over the prospects of the consummate retread politician? Give it a rest. Ugh.
2
Mr. Biden's situation may be a dilemma. The party's situation may be an irony.
Neither, however, is a "paradox," defined as a logical impossibility (e.g., "This sentence is false.")
NYT writers (and editors) should know better.
You know what he can do to atone for Anita Hill? Bow out and back Kamala Harris.
2
Tomasky is telling us that Democratic activists are bigots. They won't admit Biden's strengths (service as Vice President, likely ability to defeat Trump) because he is a "white male". Only bigots judge people on the basis of their skin color or sex.
It's a good reason to vote Republican.
Why don't you just ask him for a job, Michael?
In the Immortal Words of John Sebastian: :,,,,Did you ever have to make up your mind?...”
Yes, Joe. You do. Play coy long enough and you end up not going to the dance a all.
The New York Times is selectively going after Democratic candidates while at the same time trying to destroy Trump. Makes one wonder what the end game is? Warren?
One more thing: you’re all completely delusional if you think anything less than a miracle will beat that brutish clown back from a second term. Russia, anyone? History, perhaps? There’s only one one-termer in the last three decades and he was following eight years as vp. Wake up, kids. Your own personal feelings don’t translate into reality. And frankly, none of the dem noms are impressive. None.
Can we please stop electing dotards?
I think it’s time the pundits and commentators should simply admit that they know nothing. We all knew Hillary was going to win last time. Alberta, a far right wing oil state, elected a premier from the leftist party. Everybody missed. For sure polls missed.
In retrospect it turned out that Bernie would likely have beaten Trump. But the DNC thought it knew better and put a thumb on the scale. It’s time for everyone to stop thinking that they know better.
3
I am an old feminist; younger than Gloria Steinem. Please give us Joe, white male, Biden. I am practical in my feminism. Stop, the Democratic clown car before it starts. Kamala, give me a break, is damaged. We need a candidate that can return normalcy and defeat Trump. We do not need the first woman president, the first Hispanic, or the first pink polka dot president. We need to defeat Trump and that will be center to center left. Someone needs to tell AOC and the Somali from Minnesota to get out of the way. They may be correct or have good ideas, but anything other than a white male that never trumpers plus Democrats can support, is destructive to recovering our country from demagoguery and most likely the unwitting, perhaps, Russian asset,Trump.
3
CA white feminist here and I agree 100%. We are on the verge of our form of government collapse, thanks to the perfect storm of factors that brought us trump. We must win at any cost to save the country. Joe can do this-- none of the others can. I woke up the day after the 2016 election demoralized to know I will never see a woman reside in the white house. We live in a reactionary country where forward thinking progressives are weak in power and votes though strong in numbers. Thus we have to run a winning candidate. That is if we want the USA to recover.
2
If we want to encourage the 18-30 vote Biden should not be on the ticket. He may get out the vote in Iowa or Montana with old white guys, but his kind of politics is dead with the youth of this country. Why try and win over tRump’s base, let’s create a new forward thinking base. There are multiple Democratic candidates already running that have a forward vision for America’s future. Why go backward to an old white that served as Obama’s Sidekick. One of the mistakes the Democratic Party made in 2016 was thinking we wanted the status quo. It’s clear of the Democratic Party needs a new direction even if that comes from a 77 year old Democratic Socialist.
3
@Lany: You're pretty much on the money, but it's an awfully big gamble. This is the choice Dems are facing. On the horns of dilemma for sure!
1
Biden doesn't have the political skill to do what this writer suggests. People talk about him winning, but here's his track record: He ran for president in 1988 and never emerged from the second tier of candidates before a plagiarism scandal forced him out. He ran again in 2008 and never emerged from the third tier.
Personally I love Joe Biden -- I love his warmth, his sometimes uncomfortable honesty and most of all, how he served as a role model for men, in this culture, who are grieving. I consider him a great American even though I disagree with him about many things.
But there are people running for the Democratic nomination who can, and if necessary will, hammer Joe Biden on national TV as a racist, a sexist and -- let's be real -- kind of a creep. I don't want to see that happen. Please Joe, don't run. You've already served America dutifully and well.
4
If the smug new Democratic consensus is that busing was actually good and we should start removing kids ftom their neighborhood schools again, Biden may not be nominated by the “activists”, but whites plus black plus Hispanic parents will be plenty to re elect Trump, I’m not sure the real Democratic Party — as opposed to kids, journos and academics will have a problem with Biden.
Winning Democrat ticket would have a young rising star, like a Beto, at the top of the ticket and Joe Biden as VP. If wouldn't appear fair or proper, especially to Biden.....but he would soundly help the ticket in that position. And also, uncharacteristically, if I were running with Biden as my planned VP, I would annihnce that Tesm early on, instead of waiting for the award of the nomination. I think the part would very rapidly unite behind such a ticket.
1
You forgot his first error. Giving a speech previously given by Neil Kinnock in the UK. And for his last error, he caved into the Hilary crowd and refused to challenge her in 2016. He doesn’t have the backbone to take on the current Republican Party, he still lives in the era when every one in the Senate was buddies, before Cheney told Leahy what he could do with himself.
2
I'm surprised how few comments mention Biden's age. Do we really want a President who will be 78 years old when he is inaugurated? I, for one, don't.
3
This essay feels incoherent. Tomasky claims "Biden has three problems," and identifies these as being failures in handling issues of sexual misconduct and of race, together with his centrism and coziness with lobbyists. Fine. Probably so, though in the reverse order. So why does Tomasky come out with this stray thesis statement that Biden is politically disadvantaged by being a white man? Even if that were not both laughable and offensive, how can he then "have three problems," none of which relate to his own racial and gender identity? Where is this "problem" supposed to fall in the hierarchy of the three?
It seems as if Tomasky wrote two essays, then somehow spliced them midway in.
Still, he deserves considerable credit for being one of the few political writers to understand that Biden's polling lead does not make his nomination a safe bet. It could happen, but the Democratic base does not want Biden. Not because he's white-- not because he's a man-- but because he is not up to the tasks that a Democratic president must tackle. We need a president who can take bold action to mitigate climate change before we go extinct. And we need that president to use well-crafted industrial policy to both support that effort and also create "green-collar" skilled labor jobs. Biden is not up for bold action. He is cruise control, on a highway about to end.
1
Biden would make a terrible president. Centrist Democrat, which translates to being corporately-owned and doing everything the old why the wrong way
Biden will beat trump. End of story unless you foolishly think there’s no difference.
2
His time has passed. He needs to hit the dusty trail.
1
At some point you throw out comfortable shoes.
He has a long record to attack.
Separate and apart from Biden, the whole “white guy bad” syndrome infecting the Democratic glitterati is a road to defeat. Whites are still about 61% of the population. You’ve got to win the white vote to win a nation-wide election in this country. Ticking off whites—especially whites in the lower economic strata—by continually telling them they are racist and that they never earned anything because of their “white privilege” is not a winning strategy. No one wants to vote for a candidate who makes them feel bad about themselves.
Yes, as the author notes, Stacy Abrams almost won the Georgia governor’s race. But she didn’t win, even thought Georgia has a greater percentage of blacks (about 31%) than most other states and the country as a whole.
White, black, green or blue, the Democrats need to nominate a candidate with a positive message of inclusion, tolerance, economic growth for everybody (not just the top 1%) and re-earning the international respect squandered by the current Administration.
2
Joe Biden isn't popular with the most vociferous party activists...so what? all those vociferous party activists get one vote come November 2020 - the same as mr. and mrs. sixpack do. that's how Donald Trump got elected, remember?
1
Not a word about Biden being 76 years old today, making him 78 years old when being inaugurated. It’s not an accident they failed to mention it. That is gross.
@Tice
What's gross is the ageism reflected in this and many other comments here.
Thank you, Joe Biden, for putting criminals behind bars. It's crazy that PC fanatics want to undo that!
Biden/Abrams or Biden/Beto Or Beto/Abrams. I'm sorry Sherrod Brown chose not to run.
Biden is experienced and qualified to get to work of repairing the breaches here and with Our allies. He worked WITH President Obama for 8 years for America! So much was accomplished inspite of Mitch McConnells shenanigans. And no scandals! We need a good smart experienced man. His gaffes pale in comparison to Trumps racist, xenophobic, misogynistic, divisive, self-serving agenda. We need a lover of American ideals and the Consttution who inspires hope, not a hate mongering grifter at the helm.
2
Many voters are looking for another Obama, who brought sanity and dignity to the presidency and would likely have won a third term if our laws allowed it.
Much of Biden's appeal may stem from his proximity to Obama.
Here is a 538 article on this topic, published yesterday:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-2020-democratic-contenders-could-embrace-obamas-legacy/
Also, here is one word of caution to the multiplicity of Democratic candidates: The small donors on whom many are dependent cannot sustain a prolonged struggle. After four years of "chipping in", many are tapped out. Candidates would be wise to set their egos aside and consolidate the field as soon as possible in order to fund the 2020 campaign.
2
The right man. The wrong year.
Maybe "most Democrats" feel Biden is a good choice, but what about those who, like me, were life long Democrats who finally left the fold? Max Baucus and Obamacare made an independent out of me in 2009. Biden personifies everything I find repellent in the Wall Street wing of the Democratic party. By the way, you forgot big fat reason #4 that us former Dems don't like Biden - his support of George W. Bush and the Iraq War.
In my book, Biden's job will be to distinguish himself from his buddy, Barack. Where was he when Obama caved and dropped the public option? Is he more of a street fighter than Obama was? Can he wipe the smirk off Mitch McConnell's face? The one thing I think he, among all the Dem candidates, could do is take back the flag from Private Bone Spurs and the Bible from from Trump's hypocritical evangelical base. .
If Trump, then Biden. If not Trump, then have at it.
2
Wait, who thinks Biden is the best suited to take on Donald Trump, aside from Biden himself?
He's not a particular talented politician. He's too old. He's out of step with American politics. He repeatedly sticks his foot in his mouth.
And yes, he has a terrible policy record. Fighting desegregation alone is an immediate disqualifier. Why are we even still talking about this? Democrats cannot win without the black vote, full stop.
The only and only reason we are talking about him is because he's the old white guy in the race, and you think that makes him look "presidential."
2
Biden is just an uninspiring candidate it has nothing to do with his white maleness. What are his politics? Incrementalism? A lot of us are sick of that. Please don’t blame the fact that he can’t win on identity politics.
2
There are good reasons Biden's previous attempts to win the presidency failed. For one, he does not know when to stop talking and he ends up saying stupid things. This is not a problem when he is in the role of everybody's smiling uncle, but it will not wash with many of us who want the future, not the past. If you want to know why he will not and should not be nominated, watch some videos from his previous campaigns.
1
Bernie Sanders isn't "white", he's Jewish. We've never had a Jewish president. According to a 2015 Gallup poll, all things being equal, voters were less likely to discriminate against a woman or a black candidate than a Jewish candidate. So Bernie should fit a diversity litmus test if it comes down to that. Hopefully, it won't.
1
Let's hope that he can pull it off.
Biden’s three supposed vulnerabilities—whiffs of sexism and racism and his “corporatist” leanings—are issues only if other Democrats make them issues. When your candidate is Donald Trump you’d have to be crazy to bring up sins like these.
No Biden, He is history. We need new blood to spark interest.
Trump or Pence will likely win against Joe Biden, I think.
"Forward, not backward" (Obama slogan)
Yawn, yawn...Enough is enough!
1
The conservative NYT heavily backed Hilary Clnton who would have won a fair election without voter suppression and the anti-democratic electoral system in the US. The democrats need someone who will win so big the election cannot be rigged by Russia, voter suppression, the electoral college, and computerized fraud. That's not Biden who just might win--improbable as it is-- in a fair fight. To win the presidency, the house, and the senate, the democrats do not need to win over that thin sliver of "swing" or "independent" voters (4 or 5% of the electorate) but to turn out a significant part of the 40 to 45% who do not vote. Some of these votes are suppressed by various means, but many people do not vote because they believe--with good reason--that neither party represents their interests or listens to their concerns. The bottom half or two thirds of the electorate can see little difference between Biden, Clinton (either of them), or the standard democrat. The democrats need a real populist who will get half of the non-voting electorate out. Biden can't bring any of them out and will probably do worse than Hilary among minority and working class voters who usually vote.
1
@George: Yup. I think you nailed it.
Could the vehement anti-Biden people answer one question, “Why did Obama choose him? Was Obama a sellout?” I certainly think not, but you tell me. Go ahead please.
2
biden was opposed to busing back in the past. He thinks the homophobic Pence is a nice guy? He never meant a war he did not support. He supports Wall Street.
He has a lot of baggage that turns this old guy off.
us army 1969-1971/california jd
1
This is not a white male thing. The issue is clear: Biden is establishment and a hypocrite: real liberals won’t ignore his abuse of Anita Hill in the Thomas confirmation, his early support of segregation in Delaware and his constant sex harassment filmed numerous times with women. He’s not the man for the time; his brand is expired.
Biden can't win. So the rest of us might as well not even show up to vote next year? These silly columns purporting to know who can and cannot win are useless. Donald Trump couldn't win either. It's time for the media to sit down and shut up. Report facts. Keep your opinions to yourselves and let the rest of us decide.
Here's another reason Joe should not run -- have you seen all of those videos of his creepy behavior with young girls and women? Not going to go over well in the MeToo era. He is not even on my "long" list.
Mr. Tomasky, when I read this my first thought was no one is going to comment on this pointless article. Dropping crumbs in the snow so a hapless reader will follow you and discover a vacuous swizzle stick isn't good writing. It's as if you just finished copying Moby Dick in longhand as fast as you could, put the #2 down and your mean sixth grade teacher says, "Just a second smarty pants, now write a couple of hundred words about Joey Biden of Daisy Cottage, Rolling Meadows." Well, by golly, you did it.
Don't you think there was a reason Joe never grabbed the golden ring?
I've been alive and conscious since Joe's been some kind of Democratic pol: a senator of infinite terms, double failed presidential candidate, vice president of comic relief for eight years, winner of the Presidential Medals, but never el prez. I wonder why? Was he too "fully of his era" or was he unable to solve 'The Infamous Biden Paradox," a puzzle so puzzling that even Matt Damon couldn't solve it. There are reasons why Biden's career topped out it where it did. He's done well. He exudes the phantasmagorical "American Dream." Give the guy a break. Let him do what he wants to do without undue silliness from the peanut gallery.
Your presumptions, assumptions, projections and Great White Hope nuttiness aside, Joe will fail. I feel bad for him. Sorta. I don't want to see anyone choose to humiliate themselves as a footnote of American political history.
But it's his choice. Let him be.
Tomasky ignores the obvious.
How many 76 year olds will not be 77? Those people surrounding Biden life insurance salesmen? What's the mental acuity of a 76 year old compared with a 56 year old?
Biden has all the white hair necessary for a departing president. That is a symptom not a qualification.
Biden belongs in the pasture he currently occupies.
Well, there ARE some predators on our streets.
1
I don't mind that he's a white male.I mind that he would be considered a moderate republican if there was such a thing.
I don't believe he will be an agent of change. He represents the status quo, like a male version of Hillary.
Biden needs to do two things. One, pledge to serve a single term. Two, choose Kamala Harris as his running mate. All that stuff from back in the day doesn’t matter.
"Widely considered" is doing a lot of work in this piece. I remember when it was "widely considered" that Donald Trump was toast in 2016 and it was "widely considered" that the Democrats would take the Senate. It was so "widely considered" that the NYT had a little probability needle showing that it was 70 percent likely that both events would happen. "Widely considered" is a recipe for disaster.
I don't buy the starting premise of this piece--that Biden would have a great chance of beating Trump if he were the Democratic nominee.
Trump is likely to beat himself. But putting Biden in the ring with Trump scares the heck out of me. We need someone who is more at home with the kind of fighting that Trump engages in.
3
If you rephrase "the Democrat most likely to beat the president" to "the candidate running on the Democratic ticket most likely to beat the president," then you'd be talking about Bernie Sanders.
Thank you Biden. Thank you Sanders. Thank you Kamala, Thank you Wareen and all. But please all of you, democrat party candidates, who have served honorably for years, do go on doing what you have been doing , but let the young take over from here. Pete Buttigieg, is THE candidate for millennials! He speaks for the young and their future, which seems doomed by the incompetence of the previous generations. We need new blood.
2
The country will elect anyone it deems it can trust for the next four years, regardless of race, gender or sexual orientation.
If the Democratic nominee isn't Biden, Klobuchar or Booker, then bring on Howard Schultz!
Is there anyone on the Democratic side that really has enough of a thought out agenda for what the voters need to hear? Not really, as the other side figured out that you can tell them anything, and get elected. The sad truth, is the kind of women, or men, who would be good in office, boring, constrained, intelligent, good policy wonks, serious, etc. often aren't the ones elected to office. So, we got 19 years in the middle east, and $22 trillion in debt to show for all of it. The world got death, destruction, and refugees, on a scale that is really despicable.
1
This idea that Biden has a good chance of defeating Trump smells very suspect to me. I assume that the concept is that all of the powerful forces that typically control our elections would rally behind him to deliver a victory. I know the concept is painful for the Times and many others but many voters are rejecting the narratives of the mainstream media. Your despicable performance in the 2016 election (shameless coverage of Trump and sidelining of Sanders) has lost you a lot of credibility. Choosing to shove a totally uninspiring candidate like Biden down our throats will only push voters farther away.
1
And what about the Iraq war. He voted, I think along with may others who did, quite opportunistically so, in favor, whereas anybody who was a little bit informed knew that the whole thing was based on a hoax.
1
He ran before, without success. His age is against him. He is tied to Obama, and voters on the right who dislike Trump hate Obama much more. I don't see how he beats Trump.
Seriously, America, learn from 2016. Sanders will landslide against Trump. A centrist, corporate, war-supporting hack like Biden will lose. For the sake of the planet and all of humanity, make Sanders the Democratic nominee!
2
The notion that Joe Biden's problems with Democrats are their aversion to white-maledom reflects out-of-date shallow thinking. His problem is that he had his chance and blew it, and now he is past his shelf life. He lacks energy and fight--he didn't fight for himself last time around when he should have been the candidate instead of Hillary. And he lacks a view of the future--he's not much of a thinker. He may be a decent guy, but he is not particularly bright, and he is boring.
I loathe the idea of Biden entering the race. His stances have shown him to be on the wrong side of history in multiple instances. Mind you, without apologizing for his stances in the past— so any new apology would be viewed as a way to win voters. How many old men in their 70s have changed their viewed in the matter of two years? I’m guessing next to none.
I would like us to push our country forward and out of this nightmare my generation has been living in for the last decade. Obama nudged is forward in a hostile environment. We need radical change now. The elders had their chance and they blew it. Let go of the wheel already.
1
I don't agree with the premise that Biden can't secure the nomination. In a crowded field, who will surely split the "activist" vote he can win a plurality and the nomination.. Sanders should not be underestimated and someone else will emerge from the pack but, by then, Sanders or Biden may well have clinched the nomination. Nobody in politics escapes having issues: tough on staff, lost the last election, claims of a heritage that is deceitful, a foolish comment like a "Spartacus moment". I believe the country is yearning for a unifying candidate and less vitriol. Biden fits that like a glove.
If the media keeps saying he has no chance, then he wont.
People will believe anything, just think about trump..they believed the media hype.
A Biden/Warren ticket is a winner. I said that in 2016, and I say it now.
1
@Jr Enough with the old.Pete Buttigieg, please!
1
Seems to me the author makes major assumptions..."No one" believes he can be nominated? Who's "no one"?
Polls show clearly what a huge majority of Democrats seek is a candidate that can beat Trump, so, if Biden beats Trump in national polls, there will be some attractiveness to his candidacy, right?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I get he's not tomorrow's news, I get his past gaffes and his spotty record but the author misses something...Remember the 1976 NYS US Senate race? I do...Abzug, Ramsey Clark, Paul O'Dwyer, a wide field of liberals and moderate Pat Moynihan ran down the middle, split the field; Won the nomination and the general.
Was Pat a liberal's second coming? Probably not, but he beat a bad conservative [James Buckley] and he governed well.
So, don't say "No one" or "Never"...It's too simplistic. Biden's road will have challenges but they're not insurmountable.
Biden is an irrelevant dinosaur: DINO Rex. Nominating Biden is a slap in the face to future generations. Time to trash Biden and put in primary challenges to the other DINO traitors in congress. They are not real moderates -- they are Republicans-lite and the Democratic party will continue to fail as long as it pursues this fairy tale that voters want a moderate/bipartisan line. Voters do not care about left or right --- this is why Obama voters can vote for Trump (and could do so again). People are fed up with millionaire, egotistical "moderates".
Democrats need to run unashamedly on what people want -- sensible government that includes affordable college, housing and health care, higher taxes on the wealthy and investment in the future of ordinary people. This is not liberalism or socialism -- just common sense (and has been since the 1950s) and what any true moderate should aim for. AOC slapped down the gauntlet -- instead of criticising the bold ideas that are the future of the party, Democrats should be focusing on reworking the GND into workable policy that every Democrat must stand behind or get primaried. Why is it workable? -- because many countries have done large chunks of it already! MARA - Make America relevant again!
1
I realize that we get all we believe from the media. Given how the media tears own Democratic candidates over one single issue until we have the candidate the media prefers: Hillary constantly having to justify her email server to Andrea Mitchell, Matt Lauer etc; Amy Klobuchar constantly having to prove she's not a big meanie. Even the author of this Opinion writes off the candidacy of Joe Biden while smugly telling Biden what to do about it.
In the age of Trump, what you do about it is deny, attack and change the subject. Otherwise, you get the same question, one that has traction, in every interview, debate, and public appearance until you lose the election.
Trump, who even Les Moonves said was making CBS oodles of money, mostly got a free pass during the campaign. He would flit from scandal to scandal, any one of which should have sunk him, knowing that he was getting a free pass and free advertising. That's the guy who started by insulting immigrants, went through the Billy Bush tapes
Among other things, journalism should inform the electorate but they don't. They sell advertising and their reporters sell books and get promotions.
And I don't know "How to Solve It."
Biden has already apologized to Anita Hill, and I don't see how apologizing again makes much sense. He seems far too centrist for today's Democrats, and gaffe prone as well. But he was the winner in the Iowa poll, so maybe bourgeois Biden can persuade voters explain to voters that he's the one with vast experience and knowledge of government who can beat the ignorant corrupt Trump and return the country to a sense of normalcy experienced when No Drama Obama was president.
1
The problem isn’t that Joe is old and male. The problem is that he is the face of Corporate America which, at its BEST, smiles and reassures us with platitudes while it assiduously takes all that it can take from humanity in terms of decency, dignity, and justice while giving as LITTLE AS POSSIBLE in return.
Corporations are NOT people, my friend. Joe Biden, like most of the people who serve US corporations (in some sense that’s ALL of us) is probably mostly a “Good Joe” most of the time (as are, in some sense, MOST of us).
Corporations are institutions and Corporate America is a vast cultural, political, and economic SYSTEM with rules and dynamics of its own which affect us more than we can affect IT - as long as it can seem to appear as “natural”, “inevitable”, “ominipresent”, “inescapable”, and “everlasting”. In other words, as long as it appears “invisible” to us, it will continue to corrupt us - and/or bring out the worst in us.
But Corporate America still TOO powerful and it laughs at us like Joe Biden laughed at sad eyed Paul Ryan pretending to explain something he did not understand.
1
Joe needs to stay above the fray and talk to the man on the street and not the hobbiest activists. Then pivot to inauthentic Trump. We need four years at least of decency and proportion. Revolution? Well America was never France or Russia and we’re better for it.
1
Joe Biden is the most popular living Democrat who hasn't already been president ... no votes will be cast for another 10 months. The idea that he should be written off is ludacris. The author should break his crayolas and sit in a corner until he comes up with an actual, original idea.
I would be pleased to vote for Biden.
1
Joe Biden shouldn't win the Democratic nomination. He's had the opportunity before, and he's proved himself to be a gaffe machine who stands for nothing other than the idea that he somehow represents blue collar America, whatever that is. He is old, he is a Senator with no experience running anything.
We don't need old white guy (or young, totally inexperienced, white guy Beta O'Rourke) to save us from Trump. Run against corruption. Run against the rich, greedy, giant corporations, their lobbyists and money in politics. Run against tax breaks for the same and benefits cuts for everybody else. Run against Trump as exemplar of all these things. Stop shaming people for being white, Christian or watching Fox News. Run on honesty and competence. I think a dead fish running on this platform could beat Trump.
Elizabeth Warren looks good to me. The Democrats will surely blow it, just like when they let Bush get reelected after he'd lied us into Iraq, Democrats are too busy signaling their virtue and shaming everybody else to get it right.
At the moment there is no Democrat who can win the Democratic Presidential nomination. For one thing, too many factions believer this is their moment. For another, both the Clinton and the Obama legacies were to leave the party without a newly emerging generation of political leaders who have name recognition and experience. Third, their Democratic Party allowed too many state governments to fall into the hands of Republicans and only now are beginning to recover, maybe, from that dereliction. The overriding goal of Democrats has to be to defeat Trump. That has to happen before any other goals and ambitions can be realized. Biden may be best suited to do that, but getting the nomination - there's the rub.
2
Well, it is becoming clear that the populist left will echo the Tea Party right on requiring purity. This certainly is not a road to good governance, never mind ensuring electoral victory in 2020. This commentary, as well as a general denial of legitimacy to many whose positions and beliefs have evolved over time, also evidences a profound denial of a human being’s ability to change and the power of change itself. There is an astounding degree of intellectual arrogance and moral superiority at work here. There is also either a profound ignorance or great misunderstanding of how offensive this will be viewed in the states and Congressional districts that the Democratic Party nominees will need to win in 2020.
24
@Capite
I don't see any of the purity thing going on.
Politicians work towards what they believe in - and they should. Who persuades more voters in the end is the questions.
This is very different from the right - where winning at all cost against the clear will of the majority, including employing lies, corruption, carpetbagging, cheating and money laundering into politicians pockets becomes the norm.
If Biden is the last man standing, I shall vote for him. If it is Gabbard or Harris I will vote for them or for Bernie, although I wished he would have gotten behind another candidate instead.
9
“Are Democrats having their Tea Party moment with extremists calling the shots? I think so. May not end well.”
I posted the above argument on my social network. And surprise, surprise, the friends that I do consider the 10% most liberal, cosmopolitan and (sorry to say) myopic lost themselves in trying to argue against that premise, despite all evidence (Omar flap; AOC v Pelosi, etc.) People typically have little understanding of the thinking and beliefs of people outside their bubble.
1
@Capite I could be wrong, but I don't think there is as big a percentage of Democratic voters who will stick on the "purity thing" as there was with the Tea Party. That kind of all or nothing stubbornness for ideology is just not, generally, a Democratic trait. It's one reason why Republicans get elected again and again after Democrat officials have done pretty good jobs; Democrats tend to get disaffected if things aren't perfect, and look for someone - anyone - else that seems okay. Or just not vote. Republicans will be upset, but most will still vote in the Republican who is running.
However, Dem candidates still have to convince democratic voters looking at them askance that 1. they can beat Trump, and 2. that they're at least open to debate on their policy positions and don't deny them 100% out of hand, if not fully on board. In that order.
Of course, if a killer majority of Dems are really stupid enough to choke off a candidate who shows him or herself strongest against Trump, and honestly evolved from any past problematic directions enough to be palateably if not perfectly considerate of some socialistic ideas, then the Democratic Party deserves what it gets in 2020.
A-n-n-n-nd the Dems have to stop letting Trump and the GOP control the political narrative. In fact, the candidate who can take control of the narrative effectively for true democratic principles, socialist or not, will probably get my vote. Trump MUST NOT win in 2020.
6
Remember "location, location, location"? Well it's "electability, electability, electability" really nothing else is more important.
1
In today's Jennifer Rubin column over at WaPo, Joe is the overwhelming favorite of the commenters. Very few dissenters. Jennifer wrote a glowing, but convincing puff piece about how Joe could win. In fact so much so that I was afraid to dissent; besides, it would have been futile: This old fool knows better than to get in front of a moving train.
Admittedly, Joe is light-years better than 45 -- who isn't? -- so he could probably defeat him, and we would get what? A slow boat to China? Four years in Mediocreville? Hillary Lite?
Joe will take us nowhere fast, even if the Dems win the Senate. Joe represents same-o, same-o. Nothing to see here. We could, and should, finally move this great country into Democratic socialism: M4All; affordable college tuition; vigorous solutions to climate change; free government child care for working mothers; and, most importantly, a living wage for full-time workers.
I don't hear Joe pushing for these policies. Maybe he is. If so, good; but I can't see him being a vigorous advocate for them. Can you? He's too pragmatic (a cover for "just not feelin' it.")
I'd like to see Bernie/Liz in 2020, but I admit they attract much fear and loathing as socialists or Big Gov bullies. Too bad. Only Big Gov can save us from plutocracy, where we are now.
But it's a long way to go. 45 may not even run; he may not even have the choice to do so. Many slips occur between the cup and the lip. And Scarlett O'Hara reminds us that tomorrow is another day.
1
Please no more retreads. Democratic Party leadership is too old, too gray, too unable to flex, too slow to learn. They're able to impose power among their peers in DC but unlikely to appeal to voters across the country. Time to switch to someone 25-30 years younger than the Biden/Pelosi/Sanders group, and to truly put forth leadership for tomorrow.
Commenters here bashing Joe Biden are replaying the bashing they did of Hillary in 2016. that bashing opened the door that Donald Trump walked through.
Aggrieved Bernie Sanders voters believed that Hillary stole the nomination, which every bit of electoral evidence will tell you is untrue. those same people seem prepared to take down the party's best chance at winning the White House and once again cede 1600 Pennsylvania avenue to the orange menace rather then dirty their hands with actual politics. Joe Biden is not a perfect vessel. in 45 years of public service he's made mistakes - show me somebody who's put 45 years into public service who hasn't made mistakes or compromises and I'll show you somebody who is thoroughly ineffective. Bernie Sanders supports the gun lobby.
2
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders - now the generation that said don't trust anyone over 30 is telling us not to trust anyone under 70. Irony abounds.
Don’t run, Joe.
Third time isn’t always the charm.
It's uncomfortable but needs to be said; a not small number of progressive true believers would rather lose to Trump with someone breathing social justice fire than win with Biden.
30
@JS
I disagree entirely. Take any one of those progressive true believers (I count myself among them) and empower them with clairvoyance that informs them that Biden would beat trump but that their progressive candidate of choice would lose to trump and they will choose Biden, hands down.
The fact of the matter is, however, that no one can predict who will win. Not now, not in June 2015, not in early November, 2016. So the progressive true believer, unsurprisingly, believes their progressive candidate can beat trump. Personally I am skeptical and more than a little bit concerned, but one never knows.
3
@JS
Is that what all of them told you or can you read their minds?
6
@JS
Are you referring to that wild-eyed bunch of maniacs who believe that government can work for the majority of people in this country instead of doing the oligarch's bidding? This will terrify you but I happen to know that large numbers of them also live in red states and typically vote Republican (or not at all).
History has demonstrated who it is that would rather lose to Trump than win with a progressive candidate.
2
If we're going to bring back someone from the wilderness, it should be Al Gore.
He's competent, a killer debater, and a Viet Nam vet. And of course, takes climate change seriously.
He's also almost 10 years younger than Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump.
Despite the old perception of Mr. Gore being stiff and awkward, when he shows his sense of humor and tech savvy, he's very appealing to millennials.
2
Democrats should have the good sense to recognize that their party lost to Trump because too many within the electoral college concluded that it was just barely distinguishable from the reactionary, obstructionist, muckraking, retrogressive, so called party of Lincoln. A myth that ceased being true after the great man was assassinated. But shameless Republicans still peddle it with a straight face while milquetoast Democrats cravenly allow them to do so. The truth is, they haven't been the party of Lincoln since Lincoln. In 2016, the electoral college comfortably chose the fabulist, delusional, divisive, proverbial "dog catcher" and now there is daily hand wringing about the result, from people who often blithely reminded us that "Democracy is messy". I say let Trump govern to his heart's content, if that's what it takes for decent, like minded people to recognize that it is time to switch out the weary, close minded baby boomer crowd. Chosing Biden would simply represent more of the same for a new age. more of the thinly veiled moderate Republican who masquerades as a Democrat to be nominated then becomes a neo conservative when they win the Presidency. Biden is merely a throwback to the concept of slow rolling Democracy, then reversing prior year societal gains whenever a Republican takes office. What the country needs now, is a Teddy Roosevelt/LBJ type, with the courage and conviction to lead all of us beyond a morass of mediocrity that currently exists in Washington.
18
@Quilp
What does the baby-boomer insult have to do with Biden, the subject of this piece, who was born during the Battle of Stalingrad, for pete's sake, or Bernie, who was born before the attack on Pearl Harbor? They're not baby boomers.
You also incorrectly assume that people only vote for candidates their own age. Do you think that applies to the average Bernie Sanders supporter? Careful who you insult, because the Dem. is about evenly divided betwee younger and older voters (and the latter vote more reliably).
Those who said Trump couldn't get elected dogcatcher would have been proven right if not for inteference by Russia, Wikileaks and a few ill-time October surprises by James Comey.
TR was our youngest president at 42 while Bernie, if elected, will be entering his 9th decade during his first year in office, so are you sure you didn't mean FDR, who like LBJ passed sweeping social legislation as president?
Well, Bernie doesn't have enough years left, nor a united congress, to be FDR and as a career back-benccher he's hardly a Master of the Senate.
3
Unfortunately, this type of lazy analysis continues to consume establishment Democrats and party elites: Identity politics. I'll say it again, for the umpteenth time, no one cares about gender or skin color. They care about POLICY. Barack Obama got elected the first time based on his POLICY proposals. No one is "wary of white-maledom". They are wary of white-maledom POLICIES. Bernie Sanders, an old white dude is THE most popular politician in the country because of his POLICY proposals. Hillary Clinton lost because of her POLICY positions of supporting TPP, interventional wars and her cozy policy positions with Wall Street. Democrats who articulate progressive policies that are popular with voters, like Medicare for All that polls at 70% overall approval and even a majority of republicans support, and tuition-free public universities, will win. Democrats would benefit if they had the courage to sever their ties with their corporate donors, listen to their constituents instead and put forth POLICIES that the voters want and would come out and vote for.
2
Looking for a candidate who can easily win the rust belt, turn out millennial voters, inspire the base and yet also be unifying rather than divisive? That is Pete Buttigieg.
1
Mr Biden may not be in such dire straits; the other progressive candidates may divide up the prog. vote, leaving Biden to waltz in.
Mr Tomasky, like almost everyone else, forgot a fourth thing: Joe Biden was the Senator from MBNA who was chief sponsor of the 2005 bankruptcy legislation that made life much worse for too many Americans after the 2007-08 financial crisis and had a strong lingering effect making recovery harder and weaker.
Given the blatant misogyny and racism of the current administration, I don't feel at all conflicted by wanting to win with a female candidate. Especially someone like Kamala Harris, who I feel also has the background, intellectual weight, and pragmatism to be a great president.
I feel the current President needs to be defeated by a woman; there is a moral imperative for it. Justice demands it, it needs to be a crushing defeat.
As an aside, I also don't feel conflicted by considering Biden's age. Presidents generally do better in their second term. And the job is physically punishing. And I don't have the patience to wait for Biden to explain away his past and see if he has evolved when there are a number of more capable candidates with no such baggage.
"one can certainly argue that the American electorate is somewhat to the left of the Georgia electorate."
The American electorate is irrelevant (see vote count for 2016 election). The only electorate that is relevant are the voters of Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan and it is in these states that Biden will shine. Make Harris the VP candidate and the White House is in the Democratic books.
I remember the Biden of 30 years ago. I hated him then and I’m a democrat to say the least.
I just hope Democrats can unite behind a nominee who can win. I have my doubts.
1
I'm a native Delawarian and I love Joe, but his time passed. He should have been the nominee in 2016 and he would have won easily. Now he just needs to retire to Rehobeth Beach and relax.
36
Honestly? It's just plain too early to say who will and who won't get the nod to represent the Democratic party.
Granted; it gives the pundits and other assorted talking heads something to do.
It gives the pollsters a reason to crunch numbers.
And, it gives the rest of us something to think about, even anticipate; will Trump be handed a second term? Or, will he (finally) be sent packing? Maybe even the possibility of running against Mike Pence; who, especially if he were to pardon Trump, would hand him and the GOP their most humiliating defeat in recent memory; which would also serve as payback of sorts for '16.
But, again, it's still way too early. First things, first; the Primaries.
And... who is running that understands better than Biden foreign policy, its nuances, and context? As Thomas Friedman wisely pointed out early this week in the Times, outside threats to America have grown greatly in the last decade. We needs someone who understands.
Glad that some are sticking to "principle" but I think that Trump will eat any candidate other than Biden for breakfast. So I would advise Democrats to decide between a clear conscience and getting a President elected.
1
Biden probably will suffer the same fate as Jeb, McCain, Kasich, even Hillary and John Edwards. The middle used to decide national elections, the far left and right the primaries. After several decades of inaction and malfeasance at the federal level, the dynamic is shifting, and now it's outrage (of all sorts) that drives turnout and small donors, which translates to votes. It's hard to see how after Obama twice (really, zero experience in government) and then Trump (literally, zero), the electorate now is going to turn to an old hand. It's the old hands that got us into this mess.
One of the worse bed odds today is predicting whom will be the Democratic candidate.
The cool thing is in the end, we’re going to have the most qualified candidate ever running for the Presidency of the United States. Why? Because this time around, we’ve all seen what happens when we take our hands off the wheel.
1
I hope (with an honest probability of less than 50%) that Democrats will nominate a qualified candidate that is best able to beat Mr. Trump handily, so that there is some mandate to correct the problems that were manufactured in the previous 4 years, and to spook a Republican Senate. In the absence of that, I hope that they nominate a candidate that can squeak past by winning PA, WI and MI by 80,000 votes. And I worry that the country will lose another 4 critical years of progress being made because the Democrats insisted on being right, and not on winning.
1
I hope Joe Biden takes very clear-eyed stock of the picture around him, and does his best to support the Democratic pick through to the WH. Personally, I don't think he is different enough from DJT to become the Democratic nominee. He needs progressives, he needs women, he needs centrists, he needs independents. He carries a lot of political baggage, for better or worse. Unfortunately, I just don't think he's the right woman for the job.
1
This is precisely the thinking that got Clinton nominated, and as a result Trump elected the first time.
3
As a life long independent, I am so disappointed in the Democratic party right now. Instead of focusing on winning the White House and Senate, they will once again squander the opportunity to their lack of unity. Hopefully, the time has come for a true third party candidate; not just a spoiler. But one that represents the vast majority of Americans - those of us in the center. Those of us who are socially moderate. Those of us who want reasonable gun laws but that includes background checks and no assault weapons. We want our children protected. But we don't have a problem with a candidate just because they did their job as a prosecutor - we want law and order! We want to be responsible for our own bodies so who is selected to the Supreme Court matters - we're sick to death that this institution no longer represents justice! We want social security, Medicare, and Medicaid protected and secured not just for ourselves but for future generations. We want to get ahead on the greatest threat to global security - climate change. And we want to secure financial security for our children by improving education not dismantling it!
1
Another option for Mr Biden may be to run with the intention of serving only a single term. This might alleviate concerns regarding Mr Biden's age, and define an agenda that returns diplomacy, fiscal responsibility and public trust to the presidency. Biden/Harris could bring order to the enTrumpic chaos of our times, while developing a more renewable, progressive agenda for the future.
Will the winning candidate be the one with the most positives or the least negatives? Doubtful there's a suitable algorithm or app for that. 'It's still the same old story, a fight for love and glory, a case of do or die. The fundamental rules apply, as time goes by.'
I will not vote for Biden in the primary. Way too much baggage. Turning 74 in June I believe we need to turn our government over to the next generation.
2
The democrats have the greatest knack for getting energized by a weak republican candidate to go out and select the exact wrong person to run against him. Think Humphrey, McGovern, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry and Hillary. They erroneously and fatally confuse their coastal strengths with sufficient national endorsement. Over the past 12 presidential elections, the only candidates that were able to win enough states in the center states were southern candidates, i.e., LBJ, Carter and Bill Clinton.
Biden is the wrong person at the wrong time. He and Pelosi should assume the role of elders and provide some guidance to younger people who don't have Biden's baggage. For the dems to win they need to develop their ideas and present achievable policies that appeal to the red state voters as well as the blue. The extreme voices of the dems are only preaching more of the same vitriol that alienates the red states. That people like AOC, Omar, et. al., are getting all of the air time on Fox should be taken as the beginning effort by the republicans that they want to run against the more extreme edge of the democrats.
To win, even against Trump should he survive, the democrats need a coherent achievable plan that could appeal to all Americans and that isn't what is currently being called progressive.
7
As an independent voter, Biden is on the short list of likely candidates that haven’t already lost my vote. Trump makes my skin crawl. Most other Republicans chase me away with their attitudes about religion and military spending. Most of the Democrats that are making headlines are pushing Robin Hood-based economic plans that would tank our economy.
We need an adult in the White House. Is that Biden? Maybe. I’d like to hear his platform.
2
I am for him for the reasons that others are giving as why they can't give him their support.
Anita Hill was a no body who only made pubic her complaints was to stop Clarence Thomas from becoming part of the Supreme Court. I didn't care if the story she gave was true or not because I did not and still do not believe they are grounds that should be used b to judge someone as not being qualified to be a judge on the Supreme Court.
I was and still are against busing students who are being bused to a school outside of the district they are in against their will. They have the right to demand to be assigned to schools in the district they reside in.
So these two issues people are giving as reason to oppose him will not stop me from supporting him.
I don't like the fact he is 76 years old and if elected will be 82 when his term will end if he lives that long.
Before I cam commit my support for him I have to know who the other candidates are and then decide who to support.
1
I have mixed feelings about Biden, for many reasons listed in this article — but less so than any of the other Dem candidates.
The Dems have to realize that obliterating trump in the enlightened states and in the cities while completely turning off voters in the rest of the US —call me pessimistic, but it is hard for me to imagine a very-progressive candidate doing anything else — is not going to earn them the White House. It will merely result in an electoral map much like that of 2016 (and probably worse).
But what frustrates me is columns like this which pick apart a Dem candidate like Biden when virtually any argument against him applies a hundredfold more to trump. It is beyond me how one can criticize Biden’s past when trump is such an appalling specimen of subhumanity whose modus operandi throughout his life has been lying and cheating.
As for a woman president, I personally think the first woman president will be a Republican in the mould of Margaret Thatcher, because a woman Dem candidate would be raked over the coals by the GOP exactly as was HRC in 2016 (only the perceived scandals the GOP would fabricate would change), whereas if the GOP manages to find a sufficiently solidly right-wing woman candidate she would suffer nowhere near the same degree of castigation from the Dems.
6
With regard to "white male" the best statement in this essay is -
"except with regard to Bernie Sanders partisans, but they’re not necessarily Democratic activists"
Yes! Indeed Sanders partisans are not Democrats; nor is Sanders who has never lifted a finger for "Democrats" and instead, exploits the party to win elections, then returns to being a Socialist.
Sanders is no better than Trump who used the GOP to win the nomination, then the election. Sanders is no more a Democrat than Trump is a conservative Republican.
Don't let Sanders steal the nomination!
4
@Mimi
Still - don't you think Sanders would make a better president than Trump?
Politicians, all of them, are imperfect people. The candidate doesn't exist who won't have some 'splaining to do. And the longer you've been in the game, the more there's going to be to explain. I try to picture rural voters in Pennsylvania or Florida pulling the lever for Kamala Harris, a minority female from California no less, and it makes me nervous to pla
1
At this point polls are meaningless, but we fed them everyday from a variety of sources.
Just stop.
How hard can this be?! Forget the identity politics and look at who the mainstream electorate is most likely to vote for. This time it is obviously going to be Biden.
Forget about long-forgotten history, nobody other than activists care (the real-world voters don't) and forget about Twitter. It is an echo-chamber of partisans. Again; mainstream voters don't care.
No candidate is perfect and Biden is old, but he is a decent man who would do the job well. But most importantly, he is most likely to get the vote of those in the heartland who actually turn out to vote.
5
In light of the cacophony of noise evinced via all social media platforms, the blare and glare of extreme public vetting with the concomitant near mob-rule mindset that is so prevalent these days, why would anyone in their right mind consider running for the job of elected office, almost any elected office much less the job of POTUS?
The situation is such that it takes a person confident to the point of extreme Narcissism to do it, doesn't it? Which, in more rational times, would be an automatic disqualifier. It may just be me but what a strange time it is to be alive, isn't it?
John~
American Net'Zen
1
How ironic the one candidate many feel could trump Trump doesn't meet the right specs for today's era.
Donald Trump never presented the right specs either. Nor does he apologize for past positions or even yesterday's statements. In just two years, his policies haven't even followed standard conservative lines on all fronts.
Yet its Democrats who're quaking in their boots that the candidate the party chooses may be right for party but not the one that can win.
In other words, in our upside-down age, conventional wisdom is anything but.
Let's see how Biden handles the paradox Mr. Tomasky outlines so well. If he realizes the challenges he faces in explaining his past, he could possibly emerge stronger than ever.
But if, confronted with the "Trump Paradox" --whereby the most unfit president never has to explain anything, even the thousands of lies he tells, to hold onto his tight base--Biden mumbles and fumbles, it will be clear that Joe's not the man.
3
Mayor Pete is a poised, accomplished, young leader with vision and the rare ability to connect. If you listen to him with an open mind you might come away, as I have, with new hope. But the media need to look past the same old names and give candidates like Mayor Pete serious consideration. He can win.
10
No evidence is supplied to support your contention that Biden has the best chance of beating Trump.
Not only is Biden not my second-last choice: (Bernie would make a far worse POTUS, as little a team player as Trump, and a similarly incurious demagogue who is convinced that only he should be trusted w Democratic goals)
But my main worry about a do-nothing Biden, specifically in his Trump-beating ability is that he'd have no quick responses that win anyone over. He'd be our Jeb Bush.
(And I'm open to electing a white male: Inslee for an actual passion on a necessary course correction; defeating climate catastrophe, or Beto, to attract the fervor that gets Democrats into the WH, along with Elizabeth Warren, for the clearheaded understanding of the plutocracy, and even the 1%er Tulsi Gabbard, for the kind of allround compassion and articulate decency a leader needs)
4
Combine Biden with a good female democratic candidate and get this country headed in the right direction.
2
Joe Biden should have apologized to Anita Hill decades ago. The fact that he hasn't still has kept him in the "nope" pile for me. He knew he did the wrong thing and he did not apologize to her (privately would have been fine), ask what he could currently do to make amends, and then take appropriate action based on what was requested.
Politics aside, a decent person takes responsibility for their actions.
And Delaware, both a Mason-Dixon state and the home of Corporate America, is just lucky it was State #1. Biden still has way too much baggage for me.
4
A factor not considered here is that many Democrats (I believe) haven't forgotten that a woman actually won the popular vote in 2016 and was denied her hard-won entitlement due to a mix of gerrymandering in a few crucial purple districts of 3 states (and surely aggressive Russian targeting of voters in that area—easy to know who lives in what precincts); and scurrilous distractions from Trump's obscene style.
That means that a large plurality of Democrats probably feel that a woman deserves the office, if she can be nominated, and an entire generation of youth probably agree. Look at the fact that the plurality of women Democratic candidates declared so far are not considered a big deal, just exciting candidates. Thanks to Clinton, it's normal to expect a woman candidate at the national level.
Finally, people of color are Democrats.
And we need a candidate who can stand up to a swamp thing. We need a progressive prosecutor, and being of color won't hurt.
We need Kamala Harris.
3
There’s another problem for Biden.
He has campaigned to become President twice, and in each case, at some point, or repeatedly, he performs a high kick and plants his foot in his mouth.
It’s unlikely he would be able to perform and sustain the diplomacy, and confessions of past mistakes, recommended by the author.
But I’m voting for ANY Democrat over the monstrous Donald Trump.
Note: Trump never apologizes for past mistakes — his refusal to apologize or admit mistakes is now almost legendary and delights his supporters. So why is it that Democrats are expected to ‘fess up?
3
Biden was picked by Obama and he "gets it" With a younger Vice, maybe female, he would be a great ticket. He also has the political savvy to take on Trump and the "whiteness" to win over Trump supporters. All of this would also counter the idea that older is bad, experience cannot he overlooked. He is well liked and recognized throughout the would.
1
Joe Biden decided not to run in 2016 when he could have won. Now it looks like he's going to decide to run when he can't win. It's not a paradox. The country, the issues, the media and the electorate have changed and he hasn't.
6
What exactly is Joe Biden so beloved for (other than cracking jokes with President Obama)? Apparently Mr. Tomasky doesn't know -- hence his plaintive comment that Biden must have done something good in 40 years of public service. Frankly, Biden seems constitutionally incapable of making an important decision without months of waffling,soul-searching, and hint-dropping. What will happen when President Biden is presented with a genuine crisis?
7
The election will boil down to four states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Trump only needs to take one of them and he will win. Ohio, and Florida will likely go Republican. The Republicans are unified and Trump has a lock on about 47% of the vote. It's going to be very tight at best. The Democrats need to win the centrist vote at the margin in these four states.
2
Florida is up for grabs, with an electorate that now includes 1.5 million re-enfranchised former felons. And with the right candidate Georgia and Texas might be winnable for the Democrats. Arizona certainly is. Finally, Trump’s margins in PA, MI, and WI were so tight - much less than 1% in each case - that a candidate who energises the Democratic base with a clear and uncompromising message of economic *and* racial justice can easily carry them all. There are more ways to slim a cat, or win elections, at a time of national crisis than split-the-difference so-called centrism.
1
I'm not sure where the conventional wisdom, that Biden is the most likely one to defeat Trump, comes from. Is the idea that plain likeable white guy is what is needed for people to vote against Trump? I really don't buy the argument that Biden is somehow going to convert Trump supporters into Democrats - anyone who remains a Trump supporter after all that we have been through isn't going to vote for any Democrat, not even Biden. The only way to defeat Trump is for a high enthusiastic Democratic voter turnout, and somehow Biden doesn't seem the one to inspire this.
18
@Larry Figdill I agree. That was HRC’s fatal mistake: picking a nice boring white man for VP in vain hopes that people who will always hate her somehow will come to her side. I was hoping she would pick a charismatic younger person of color to energize people who weren’t voting because they don’t see someone who reminds them of their face and story. Kaine speaking Spanish is not the same thing as someone who is from the culture, for example. Biden is in that same mold.
I do not want to vote of a candidate who will be 78 years old the month of the election - roughly the same age a diminished Reagan was when he left office . The stresses of the presidency rapidly ages even much younger men. How might an octogenarian fare in that regard? Furthermore, I have never seen presidential qualities in Mr. Biden. My memory is of and individual who was prone to making too many emotionally fueled gaffs and who all to often did not have a clear enough understanding of the issues. I do not dislike Joe Biden. I simply have never seen in him any compelling leadership and/or visionary qualities.
22
@Anti-propagandist
While I agree with much, the burning, over-arching question remains: in contrast with a 2nd term for Trump?
Biden: hands-down.
1
Biden could gain traction as a windfall candidate if Trump slowly sinks out of sight in a quick sand of Circuit Court #5 hard facts. Otherwise, if Trump finds the cure, then another long shot candidate on the Dem side or Independent side could stir things up. If that recession is addressed and avoided until after the 2020 election, Trump will probably get two terms.
Joe Biden is for Joe Biden. Like Bernie, who never seems to bother the military industrials because they do so much business in Vermont, Biden can't act for anyone's interest but his own. New blood.
6
@marek pyka
Hildebrand isn't for Hildebrand?
Klobuchar isn't for Klobuchar?
Warren isn't for Warren?
Joe Biden is almost certainly the most decent, well-informed, most capable, most experienced of any and all (to be) candidates in the pack.
As best I can tell, most of the younger candidates have serious ego issues, notwithstanding that this is a fundamental criterion for any politician.
4
Twitter does not reduce issues to their essence. Twitter reduces issues, reduces thought about issues, and reduces journalism about issues when reporters tell us about who twitted what instead of about the substance of the issues.
Let's have a primary, fellow democrats. Let's argue and contest, and not twit too much. Let's support whoever emerges from the primary and wins at the convention. Then let's resume condemning each other, sometimes rightly, and hopefully in more than 140 characters, after we retake the White House.
6
I absolutely do not agree that Biden could beat Trump. I’m wondering in fact what people who do agree have been smoking. He is a terrible campaigner. Last time he ran he came, iirc, fourth in Iowa. His current persona of retired elder statesman may be popular - but Joe Biden, potential president won’t be. No paradox at all.
10
It is time to move beyond leaders from the baby boom generation. The battles they fought—and many fought well, including Biden—are not the same battles that we face moving forward.
3
@Rachel
The situation is even worse than you describe--both Biden and Sanders are PRE-baby boomers. Time to elect a GenX-er or even a Millennial.
I've got a crazy idea: How about we let the debates, town halls, rallies etc play out and we vote in our state's primary and see what the voting people want? Instead of letting the media dictate what we should think, watch CSPAN and think for yourself. I look forward to a thoughtful, hard fought race where the best candidate wins the nomination.
14
In addition to reading the piece, I scanned many of the comments.
Surprising to me is that most commentators don't understand that a 'leftist' (Warren) or 'identity' (Hildebrand) politician cannot win the general election, period.
Biden can take the center away from Trump with no issue whatsoever. He is a far, far superior candidate now for the simple fact that he was VP for 8 years and doesn't need to learn the ropes. All he needs to do is choose Harris, or even Bernie, for his running mate and he is in the White House far more assuredly than Hillary ever was.
10
@dmckj
Biden and Bernie? Now there's an old white guy ticket for you!
The reality is that the hardcore Democrats are becoming just as polarized and radical as hardcore Republicans. That trend is fueled by social media and the gerrymandering of electoral districts. In that type of environment, centrists, or anyone capable of compromising to enact reasonable policies that have a chance of remaining in place over the longterm has virtually no chance. That includes Joe Biden, who is from an era when politics was less of a zero sum game than it is today.
3
He can't win the nomination because, good as he may be, there are far better candidates in the race.
4
Joe's a great internet meme, but not a good candidate for a new Democratic Party. But if the old Democratic Party is going to make him the nominee, then that's another matter entirely and also a risk for a two-term Trump.
6
I don't get it. What is the paradox here? Just because he can beat Trump (and who can't really) does not mean that anyone should want him to be a President. Biden represents the worst pro-war pro-corporate part of Democratic Party (Clinton fraction). Another representative of that fraction lost a nomination in 2008 and election in 2016. Many people actually preferred Donald Trump to her. Who wants to step on the same rake twice? That is not a "paradox", it is just common sense.
14
@David
Donald Trump a 'common sense' choice for president for a 2nd term?
I'm still laughing.
If the polls say that Biden is the best candidate to beat Trump, but he can't win the nomination, then really, what good are the polls? Let's stop emphasizing them so much.
Personally, I think the polls are wrong. Biden is the epitome of a career politician, holding views that don't play well with today's electorate, especially the more progressive wing. They will not accept him. And, as Mr. Bruni points out, it may be impossible for ANY white make to win the nomination in this atmosphere.
While I do believe Joe has a lot of pull with the working and middle class voters that are needed to win in 2020, that won't be enough to draw the progressives to him. And his waffling and playing coy doesn't help his case either. If there is any chance an old white guy can get the nomination, it's Sanders, and even he's going to have a tough time overcoming accusations of sexual harassment in his 2016 campaign, and his weak showing among the black community. I don't think either of these two groups will set aside their demands and vote for the candidate most able to beat Trump, and they may well succeed in dividing the Democrats sufficiently so that they can be conquered again by a guy who "can't win". I just hope in the end they remember one thing: you can't implement anything unless you first win.
3
This seems completely off the mark. Iowa polls show Biden to be in the lead, followed by Sanders, and then the remaining candidates trail. When asked what Biden supporters will do if Biden doesn't announce he's running, most say they'll support Sanders. These two candidates are pretty far apart in terms of politics (though in reality, compared to the right, they are pretty similar). But why would that be? Because overall, voters are most concerned with beating Trump, and who do these voters believe can win against Trump? An angry, "tough" white man. Such a sad state of affairs.
9
@Resra, in answer to your question "why would that be?": It's relatively simple; at this point, the main factor polling represents is name recognition.
1
Our author suggests we need only nudge Biden a little to the left. That tells us what our author really wants, and it isn't any major changes in America to fix the major problems.
Our author also doesn't like Corbyn in Britain, comparing him to Trump.
Our author also doesn't like Bernie, taking the view that Bernie (and many other excuses too) is partly to blame for the failure of Hillary.
Therefore, this support only confirms to me that Biden is not what we need.
8
@Mark Thomason
Well, just as Nader assuredly gave us Bush, Bernie assisted in giving us Trump.
While I had not a lot against Nader and Sanders (beyond impractical social policies) and could have voted for them against any GOP candidate, you've got to play the hand you're dealt.
Facts are stubborn things.
1
@dmckj -- Nader did not give us Bush.
Gore failed to carry his own home state, which would have put him over the top.
There is little reason to think that all the Nader voters in Florida would have voted for Gore. They were people who objected to establishment politics, not happy with Bill Clinton either, to whom Gore remained loyal even if he did not use him as he should have in that case.
Just so, Bernie did not give us Trump. Hillary did that, with a lot of help from the alienating DNC.
While the Russians released emails, they were all true, and what drove off voters is what those Democrats really thought and wrote. It is a bit much to assume voters couldn't have realized that if the Russians hadn't told them. That is how Democrats lost, by making all of that true.
One empirical fact will keep Joe Biden from winning the nomination. He's just not a very compelling candidate. The voters saw that in 1988. They saw it again in 2008. And they will see it in 2020. No one has lost twice and then gone on to win a major party nomination.
17
@Warren Peace
I agree. Why would people choose him now if they did not previously? Because he was just lucky that Obama chose him to be VP? He’s not any better of a candidate than he was in the past.
8
@Warren Peace
Sorry, but Nixon was an unpopular VP of Eisenhower's, disliked by same, lost the election to Kennedy, virtually disappeared, then (unfortunately) went on to win the presidency.
Effectively, he was 'kicked-to-the-curb' more than once.
4
Interesting piece.
I'm pretty sure Biden can't do it. Mainly because he actually does not believe he was wrong on Anita Hill, desegregation, etc. He doesn't think like that. Biden lived a very long time -- most of his adult life, really -- in the comfy confines of the largely white male, rarified world of the Senate. It is the most privileged sanctum in our country, and its (male) members get used to thinking they are incredibly special and immune to correction. So, he will have to make some feints, but sincerity will not be a part of them; and yes, the social media world will see right through him. And we should. Truth is, Biden's time is over, and one wishes he had the grace to see it (as one wishes Hillary had had as well). But a lifetime of entitlement and privilege is hard to shake.
Next candidate, please . . .
4
Anita Hill got Thomas confirmed. Until her testimony, he was going down. Same with the Kavanaugh hearings.
Old Joe is from a bygone era, stale white bread. Some one else needs to catch the wave, someone pure with a vision of healing the divisions and not creating new ones which the rabid far left is likely to do, someone who can capture the imagination of the nation, downtrodden whites, weary African-Americans, passionate young people, cowboys and farmers and middle class housewives. Is there anyone out there who can pull off that trick? I pray there is for our world cannot absorb the toxicity of four more years of Trump.
4
Like Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden is well qualified for the office of President by virtue of extensive experience. Also like Clinton, Biden's position among the Democratic elite means he offers "business as usual," or at most "moderate" incremental change, at a time when voters are outraged at an economic system that fails them and a political system that ignores them.
That was the lesson the Democratic elite should have learned in 2016. Bernie Sanders' "democratic socialism" won 22 states in the primaries without a cent of money from elite fundraisers. Republican voters rejected the conservative orthodoxy of Jeb!, Cruz, and Rubio in favor of a con man who recognized that voters were fed up with "business as usual" and pretended to offer the change they wanted. Then the con man (in the race to enrich himself rather than to win) prevailed over "business as usual," thanks to a rigged Electoral College. And many who voted for the con man likely felt they had nothing to lose casting a protest vote against the "business as usual" that was leaving them further and further behind.
The voter outrage against "business as usual" hasn't abated since 2016. If anything, it has become stronger as the con man delivers only the Republican "business as usual" of tax cuts for the wealthy. A Democrat who articulates a concrete progressive agenda that makes life better for the many people left behind by "business as usual" will succeed. One who yet again offers "business as usual" will not.
14
@Ted. ....and what about those Super Delegates that did not even listen to the people during the Dem primaries hmmmm? Sounds like another triangulated Clintonesque back room fix prior to the primaries...not the American way....but that is how our elections are bought.
Biden is on board with war and the military industrial complex. Americans are fed up with the expensive wars and want their tax dollars to go to benefit us here at home. I have a problem with his pro war stances in the past. We know all about war since my brother in law died in Vietnam for a lie! I can’t vote for Biden!
5
Trump spent how many decades deciding when to run, and then BOOM all the flukes of history (or demonic influence, combined with sandwich-board opposition to abortion?) got him in: he was in the moment, and convinced a lot of people he was on their side.
But whoever beats him, is also going to have to be in the moment, and convince a lot of people they are on their side.
Clinton's moment, to me, seemed to be over before she ran... it was "the Clintons" moment, anyway. Not about a woman, but a couple. It was Sanders' moment, but his moment is past. Like Bidens. Biden should have run last time, also, his moment is past. Beto should calm down and help out with the Senate, he is too folksy to beat Trump, he doesn't have enough opinions to beat Trump (hope I'm wrong if it comes to that).
I will vote for anyone against Trump, but the Democrats better ask for some divine intervention against the Rabid Angry Powerful Evangelicals..
6
He already said he was wrong regarding Anita Hill. I don't believe Biden is above apologizing. He puts his foot in his mouth all the time and people still love him. He can own his past and still survive. And the Obama connection will help him. Don't underestimate it.
I'm tired of hearing this drivel about who can and can't be elected. Donald Trump is our president. Say no more.
Democrats want to win. Period. Diversity would be great, but I will vote for anyone who can take that man down.
3
Already I am convinced that this master old-school politician is playing a game with us. And frankly, it is pathetic. We continue to read that his announcement is coming soon. It could be tomorrow. It could be next week. It could be in a couple of weeks.
And what else have we heard that about? The Mueller Report. I'm predicting Biden won't announce his intentions until he has seen Mueller's report. If it doesn't look terrible for Trump, Biden will stay on the sidelines. Conversely, if Trump's hold on the presidency looks weak, watch for Joe to jump in.
A brilliant strategy? Hardly, I would prefer a candidate who has demonstrated the willingness to make the case for his/her candidacy now.
16
I was totally, with one reservation (more about that later), agnostic about Joe Biden running for president - until I saw his speech to the Firemen's union.
A video is worth a thousand words. To be brutally frank, Biden did not look like a man physically equal to the demands of a campaign, let alone a presidential term. Raising his voice a time or two to express his passion just didn't do it for me. If the Dems have to field a candidate of that vintage, Bernie is the one to choose; a year older than Joe, he looks and acts much younger and fitter.
That said, as an old geezer myself, I hope I can suggest that the Democrats avoid nominating a geriatric candidate without being accused of ageism. There are plenty to choose from.
9
Bernie is not a Democrat and never has been. That’s why I will not vote for him.
1
The most interesting thing in this article is the observation that today, self-justification is considered a grave offense.
We're going to be in trouble for as long as that is true. If we recoil in disgust from someone justifying their actions, then basically all of us are doomed to follow the scripts written for us by other people.
I think what we find so repugnant is the idea that we might believe something so confidently but have to listen and engage with another perspective, in the moment. That we might be persuaded, that things might be more complicated, that we might need to adjust. We are addicted to judgment.
4
I'm a "lapsed" Democrat. Greatest Generation. Born and raised in Pittsburgh. Biden is the Democrat's ONLY possible win. He needs to be apologetically himself, which means he should not have apologized to Cynthia Nixon. If Joe plays this right and stays true, most of us who abandoned the HRC wing will come back. And Independents will like him. He must stay authentic.
3
Clinton supported the Iraq war. So, I didn’t vote for her.
Biden supported the Iraq war... I haven’t forgotten. Nor have a lot of other people.
4
Actually, he didn’t. He supported the AUMF, which was sold as a threat not a promise. And, in the end, it was not the fact of the war that was the problem as much as it was the utter incompetence of its prosecution.
@Marsden Whinney, the fact of the war was absolutely the problem. I have no idea how anyone who was paying attention at the time doesn't know that.
In response to 9/11, we invaded a country that had nothing to do with it, and invented reasons to do so that were absolute lies from start to finish. It was wrong, all the way through, and it was obvious to any sentient being at the time.
No, the most important that Biden has to answer is why he did not run four years ago and gave us the nightmare that is Trump.
1
@Edward B. Blau
His son had just recently passed away.
I'd say that is more than sufficient.
2
Reply to Edward Blau:
Please, his family had just been shattered (again), this time by the death of his oldest son, Beau. His personal decision not to run (influenced by Obama anointing HRC) is not how we wound up with Trump. Our very problematic electoral college, plus our own ill-informed voters, Trump’s racist dog whistles, and Russia combined to bring us the Orange Menace.
@dmckj
His son on his death bed asked Biden to run.
I'm not convinced Joe Biden is the person best suited to defeat Trump, his chances in the primary notwithstanding. He'd make a good running mate. However, at the top of the ticket, Biden still smells like disaster.
I take Tomansky's point about the risk of running anyone other than a white male protestant. We should note at this point though Biden is not a protestant. So far, only Jack Kennedy has overcome that handicap and Jack Kennedy was not an aging Catholic with a lot of baggage at the time. He was also a well respected war hero before Swift Boating existed. Kennedy also got shot. Both Kennedys actually.
Aside from age, I would say this is the biggest handicap for Sanders as well. His relationship to the Jewish faith is going to get brutally assaulted by the extreme right. This despite Trump's insurmountable record of fierce and determined immorality. As a matter of course, the religious right is impervious to hypocrisy. Protestantism is by definition apocryphal within Judaeo-Christian faith. What do they care?
If we're going to have an honest discussion about demographic handicaps, religion is the unspoken issue with both the two hypothetically leading candidates.
That said, I find it odd Tomansky would dismiss the Sanders activists as non-Democratic activists. They are still activists and they are most certainly part of the Democratic coalition in 2020. Their mistreatment in 2016 was part of the reason Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. Democrats best keep that in mind.
4
With all due respect, you missed the number one problem - we don’t want another neo-liberal. I don’t care if you produce fifteen OpEds a day, if the candidates plan to address inequality involves rapidly changing the subject, you’re unacceptable. As for your logic on who is winning, what happens when you combine the nearly identical campaigns of Bernie and Warren?
10
I don’t believe that Biden is a shoe-in to beat Trump any more than Hillary was. My reaction to Biden is the same as it was to Hillary. Too much baggage which the despicable right wing propaganda machine will use to devastating effect. No, we need someone inspiring like Trump, except in a good way, and smart and experienced enough to effectively lead the country.
9
Forget Biden. He's just too old (as are some other candidates). He grew up in a time before computers, the internet, cell phones, and unacceptable blackface. Older people (and I'm one) can overcome some of these cultural deficits, but run the country? I don't think so. We need a new generation. Biden made two failed presidential runs. Let's pass the baton to a younger, dynamic candidate who can energize the new generation of voters.
9
Why should we seriously consider electing another old, white-male, longtime member of the establishment, as president? Biden is no answer to the broken system that exists in Washington. Young people do not vote for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the fact that they cannot possibly relate to the old geezers who dominate politics. They can barely see the ground upon which they tried, let alone have visions for the future. Republicans are condemned to have Trump as their nominee. Surely, the Democrats can do more than find someone who can "win the outmoded electoral college." Anyone who thinks Bernie Sanders is the answer is in serious need of psychotropic medication. There must be someone, anyone, among the Democratic horde seeking nomination that has a clear perception of the current situation and reasonable solutions to the problems that beset this country.
3
While Joe strikes me as a good enough egg as people go, I can’t recall a time where he’s articulated his position on any particular issue, even one I might agree with, without feeling like he’s bee-essing me.
He’s a middle of the road glad-hander and whomever wins this thing is going to be someone who clearly picks a lane.
5
@TOM
He’s similar to Romney and the Clintons- not much of a core.
2
Mr. Tomasky can be trenchant and perhaps he used to write for 'The Observer' donkey years ago with an edge to his razor writing.
We have a president on board who has yet to say a mea culpa in his life, because that would come across as weak.
'But of course', concludes Mr. Tomasky, (Joe Biden) has to actually believe he was once wrong on these questions, and this we do not know'.
Hillary Clinton addressed the Nation about her email server, causing an uproar among quite a few Americans who have yet to see one in action.
In the era of Trump, where it is alright to be rude and crass and anything goes, a reminder that there are always 'different' ways of delivering a message, giving an explanation, or apologizing for misconceptions, or past errors in judgment.
For this voter, it will be a first where attention will be particularly perched on the choice of presidential running-mate.
Earlier a guest commentator in our Community News wrote of 'the chaos of the 1860 election, when the forces of a political issue literally blew the existing party system to smithereens and changing everything. That issue, of course, was slavery'. 'Lincoln's election was certainly the most improbable in our political history'.
'Predators on the Streets', they come in all forms and shades; and in the times we live, should you mention the word 'Left', it is often interpreted as Socialism.
Joe Biden served our Last President for two terms, and would be a breath of fresh air with wisdom.
2
Old. You forgot old. That should be #1. My 83 year old mother agrees.
9
Young people? Quote from Biden from last year:
"The younger generation now tells me how tough things are. Give me a break. No, no, I have no empathy for it. Give me a break. Because here’s the deal guys, we decided we were gonna change the world. And we did. We did. We finished the civil rights movement in the first stage. The women’s movement came to be. So my message is, get involved. There’s no place to hide.
That paragraph alone sums up hypocrisy on millennials with civil rights (crime bill) and his treatment of women (Anita Hill). He'll spend the first two weeks of his campaign apologizing because "there's no place to hide."
7
@Ross
Biden is right.
Today's youth expects it all to be handed to them.
They have NO idea how bad things can be. They're too self-absorbed.
1
@Ross
He’s toast when all these quotes get reported. He’s always been arrogant and condescending.
1
I think Joe’s okay, but that’s not enough. I wouldn’t vote for him in a Democratic primary; if he pulled off a miracle and did win the nomination of course I would vote for him.
If he won the nomination, Biden might well choose, say, Kamala Harris as his VP candidate, and that would be great. But I don’t see him winning the nomination.
I am a white male in my 60s (an old hippie without a pony tail), so I don’t much like so much talk against old white males, but I understand it. Joe and Bernie are fine, but it is time for change, especially after four years of that clown in the Oval Office.
We need a dynamic, charismatic candidate who will excite voters, but not a doctrinaire lefty who will try to please everyone by continually tacking left, and wind up alienating the centrists and independents who will decide the 2020 election.
Remember, Hillary only lost by a few thousand votes in two or three key states; Bernie won’t win those few votes, and Joe won’t be close enough to win the election.
Who is my candidate? I don’t know yet. I’m still a lefty, but I am convinced a candidate who tacks too hard to the left can’t win. Let’s throw that clown out of office first.
5
I don’t find Twitter toxic and terrible. My feed is full of smart and informed people who share references and sources. I find Twitter to be a public forum of sharing underlying bases of events and a place to protest untruths from public officials in official and semi-official pronouncements.
In addition, we share in the calling out of labeling and outmoded types of responses to such events as Ilhan Omar’s statements so that we don’t repeat the mistakes of silence and acquisance to hidden agendas - of lobbyists, for example.
1
Naturally the President cannot know all the details involved in his or her making an informed intelligent decision. That is why the most important qualification for any President is the ability to choose good, knowledgeable advisors. To make good executive decisions a President also needs to have substantial experience over time in a way not required for Members of Congress. That is why our Founders placed in the Constitution a higher minimum age for President than for Members.
In order to make good decisions of consequence, especially under stress, a President has to have had the opportunity to make mistakes in a lesser capacity, admitted to and learned from those mistakes, and then moved on.
So far Joe Biden is the only Democrat I would consider both qualified and capable of answering the 3 a.m. foreign policy crisis phone call.
As to whether he can secure the nomination, that is truly another story. The only people who can reelect Donald Trump are the Democrats. Unfortunately, they seem to be doing just that, adept as they are at nothing other than producing a circular firing squad.
4
The trouble is that Trump, and Bush before him, has lowered the perceived bar for what is a difficult job. It would be nice if someone who actually has clear policy ideas that benefit society, represents America's demographic, and has the intelligence to match was nominated in a reversal of 2016.
1
@Neil
Pete Buttigieg has very clear policy ideas, has served in the military in Afghanistan, and has executive experience. He is also very intelligent and well educated.
The median voter in the next presidential election will be white and able to get to Lake Michigan without crossing a state line. If a capable & ethical candidate will appeal to this hypothetical voter, they should not be held back.
Democrats have to decide if they want to defeat Mr. Trump with a candidate who has a proven track record and the skills to be president or to make a point with a candidate who or may not be qualified, but who might be defeated and allow Mr. Trump 4 more years.
Bottom line, ball in the court of the Democrats.
My guess, they will do the wrong thing.
10
@Joshua Schwartz
Sorry, you’re not going to get a neocon as you wish.
1
I don't understand why this was published. The basic claim that "no one thinks Biden can win the nomination" is supported by no evidence. No polls support this. No political experts are quoted. And, the conclusion is implausible if not delusional. Biden has obstacles, sure. But if he declares he will start as the frontrunner. Endorsements and money will flow his way. And there are so many other candidates that other than Bernie it will be hard for others to gain traction. Could Harris or O'Rourke surge past him. Yes. But does "everyone" think this will happen. Obviously not.
5
Joe Biden ought to remember that he lost the last two times he ran for president. It wasn't even close. Maybe there's a reason for that?
6
Context is everything
Sorry, but a 78 year old man should not be elected President. Even if he is in sound mind and body now, 2-3 years of the intense pressure of the Presidency (if taken seriously) takes a huge toll. We need a younger person with a good work ethic, high morals, organizational skills, and the ability to speak truth to power.
Biden would better serve his party and country by being available to assist in a true housekeeping of our government rather than trying to get elected President.
6
@kirk: in other words the Democratic Party of today should hang a sign: "older white males not welcome"
@Artur
that is not what I said, what I said was that the wisdom that comes with old age is better served as a resource while younger women and men make the decisions and plans. I said nothing about race.
"Nearly everyone thinks he can beat Trump," do they? This would be the same "nearly everyone" who thought Donald Trump would never get the Republican nomination? The same "nearly everyone" who thought Donald Trump would never beat Hillary Clinton? I can't think of a more specious reason to support Biden.
12
I totally disagree with your three obstacles. There is one and only one: age. Biden would be 79 on the day of his inauguration. He needs to find a youngish, solid, centrist running mate irrespective of gender and race. Obama’s two elections have given more room for white males to run. A person or color or a woman will not beat Trump. The purple states are not blue enough. If I were advising Biden I urge him to get the word out by the primary seat that he will have a 40 something running mate.
6
Pete Buttigieg seems like he’s got the potential to be a better candidate than the Beltway Brigade that’s currently dominating most media headlines.
It’s not some familiar household name that might potentially oust Trump, that’s precisely what he’s prepared to run against. Give him someone he has no ammunition against, and Trump will flail.
2
I agree, love Buttigieg. Dynamic, well-spoken. Would enthusiastically campaign for him and work hard to elect him.
As for ammunition, "trump's" got it against any and all of the announced or might-announce democrats. Of course he does. I'll give you one guess what card he will play in terms of Buttigieg. So let's not be naive about that. And let's be prepared to shore up whoever becomes our nominee, for they are going to be in a huge fight. "trump" is not going restrain himself.
Michael Tomasky, and many of the commenters here, have certainly delineated what the pros and cons would be of a Biden candidacy.
But I would caution anyone who believes they know what the great mass of voters--and/or potential voters who don't vote consistently--really think, and how they would act, is fooling him/herself.
We are at a time of realignment, for which the more traditional right/left divides do not hold, are in flux and re-form, split apart, and re-form again. We don't know what form they will take in 2020, and if the form they take on election day would last any longer than that--the fact that there were a goodly number of Obama voters who then voted Trump should give all pundits pause. And we should also consider that people who write about politics for a living--and yes, people who then comment on those pieces--are not very representative of the wider electorate.
Personally, I suspect that one of the main factors that will influence Biden's ability to get votes in his age, which wasn't mentioned in the column. But I could be just as wrong.
7
@Glenn Ribotsky
You mean you don’t claim to know what everyone else thinks? You’re probably the first person who has ever made that statement online.
1
The world needs normal America back to lead the Western alliance in a fight against climate change. Another 4 years of this WH disaster will sink the planet and bring China to a lasting leadership position. I know it's your election and you have real problems on the home front but you can do both - if you have someone competent as President.
You need a Democrat that moderate Republicans, especially in the Rust Belt, will vote for. Democrats will vote against Trump so they do not have to be won over; any candidate will work. Most Republicans will not vote for a woman, person of colour, or anyone focused on LGBT concerns. Who can best stand up to Trump during the campaign? Certainly Biden but perhaps there are others.
Memo from a real business owner (of which there are millions) who has an open mind and considers himself centrist with viewpoints that lean left (social issues) and right (fiscal issues).
If democrats run a campaign on Green New Deal, soak the rich, tax and spend - watch people like me run the other way back into Trumo’s arms.
If democrats nominate a “moderate” who understands that people care about their job prospects more than cow flagellation, I will certainly listen.
4
@Jason
Yeah, because a majority of voters are rich. Getting soaked is what they’re really concerned about.
1
I am a screaming California liberal, and I think you are right.
@Jason
How about if they throw in some race and gender warfare on top?
Biden’s flaws are specific to Biden. The real paradox is that even a perfect moderate candidate who would win a majority of both parties’ voters if nominated, can never win either nomination.
I'm of the opposite mindset. The nomination appears to be Biden's to lose, as the timid majority of Democrats once again decides that warmed-over, neoliberal gruel is sure to bring the hardhats back into the fold, just like in 2016. And then the party's establishmentarians can berate progressive "purists" for the next four years for not turning out to vote in sufficient numbers to stop Trump's reelection. One of these days, Democrats may finally decide that you can't beat something with nothing, but it's likely to be well past 2020 if and when they do.
2
@Corvid
I fear that your ravenous post demonstrates the perpetual failing of the American left: its uncompromising demand for ideological purity, despite its status as a minority. Handing over the election to Trump would murder our country. In the absence of real progress, the purists would continue to crow while the rest of us get rooked.
1
ez fix- Harris as his running. neutralizes almost all the stuff brought up here -- with the tantalizing possibility that the old guy might kick off while in office.
5
@Eben
Sure, it neutralizes all the stuff here. Harris was a prosecutor for more than 20 years, and Biden is criticized for supporting the crime bill in 1994. I’m not seeing neutralization there.
2
@ Eben: Harris - exactly. She’s young and can run later for POTUS when she’s more experienced and hopefully our country is more receptive to reality. Would love to think of her as a co-president or having real input...unlike the current VP. The Don sounds happy to run against her, not a good sign. He still drools over Hillary, the most exciting woman ever to enter his orbit. Too bad the entire planet can’t vote here in 2020, either would win in a landslide. Whatever it takes to WIN in 2020, please.
"Nearly everyone thinks he can beat Donald Trump."
The same "nearly everyone" that was sure Donald Trump could never be elected, sure that Hillary would be.
Biden is the establishment candidate, this year's Hillary. The establishment gave us income inequality and climate change. That is not what will beat Donald Trump.
29
@Ed: sadly, you underestimate how many people have trouble with women in power.
@EdBx
But you agree the number 1 thing we gotta do is beat "trump", right?
So, if Biden is our nominee, you will enthusiastically support him, right? Because it would be utter lunacy to not, and to risk more "trump" menace, right?
Let's support ALL of our candidates, announced or otherwise. Let's be unified against our common enemy. For once. Which is, I understand, hard for democrats to do. So pretend you are a republican in terms of how they all are disciplined backing their candidate - for god's sakes they could do it for a conman liar grabber idiot, so we can easily support Biden. This cycle get behind the democratic party regardless of which well-qualified person gets the nomination. ALL of them are good people. For the sake of the republic.
It's not just that Joe is goofy, or white, or male, or handsy, or a two-time losing candidate, or wobbly on the subject of racial equality, or corporatized, or a mainstream normie, or will be really really old come inauguration - it's that he does not express a dynamic vision of how America will overcome danger at the most critical point in our history. I honestly don't think Biden - or anyone over the age of 60 - truly comprehends cybercrime, intersectionalism, criminal justice reform, the end of capitalism, or climate change. As vitality fades, there is no shame in embracing retirement and allowing those with actual skin in the game to create the future they will live in. And today's kids, they're alright.
9
P.S.
I actually think that Trump would beat Biden badly in the debates and in the Election.
9
As a person who has been suffering with cancer for the last 5 years, it seems to me that Biden has some bragging rights for shaking up what was a largely stagnated and self-interested research, development and delivery cancer treatment system to actually provide promising opportunity and hope for patients.
2
This paradox in imaginary. Biden has actually MORE chance to win the nomination than the general election. Polls about the candidates that include non-democrats, in their vast numbers, may give Biden relatively favorable marks, based primarily on name recognition. But if he was actually made it to the general election, they would surely get to know him and his past well - and he has very little to offer the current needs of the voting public. They are mostly independents, non-affiliated and others outside the two parties; they are outside the political establishment - and Biden is squarely within it. This is why his chance of winning the democratic party nomination is GREATER than winning the country's general election. This is why Mr. Tomasky's paradox is an illusion..
2
The election is a long way off and there's plenty of time one of the younger, more progressive Democrats to emerge as a strong candidate. I sure hope so.
4
Biden’s argument that he’s the only one who can beat Trump in 2020 is as rock solid as Clinton’s assertion that she was the only one who could beat Trump in 2016.
What is the point of electing a Democrat who promises — and has the record to prove it — to implement Republican policies?
Clinton, Biden, Third Way are so last week. Only the beltway pundits haven’t figured it out yet. The rest of us — like Brad DeLong — have moved on.
8
For me Biden is not a good choice. Besides his past--I fear that his emotional good fellow speeches and accidental statements will not stand him in good stead through a gruelling campaign.
5
Too soon to say Biden can beat Trump or that he won’t get the Democratic nomination. Lots of things can change once the primaries start. But I do think that if it remains clear that Biden has the best chance of winning the general election, he will get the nomination.
2
There is very little in Biden’s record to inspire Democrats and independents. On the big issues—the Iraq War, bank deregulation, trade deals, the bankruptcy bill, the Patriot Act—he has consistently shown poor judgment and sided with special interests at the expense of the public. He has recently proposed means testing for Social Security and Medicare, a sure path toward weakening these programs, and has awarded a medal of honor to George W. Bush, showing where his allegiances lie, and it's not with the middle and working classes. Given the crises we're facing--climate change, wage stagnation, a failing health care system, crushing costs for schools and housing—we cannot afford yet another centrist, status quo administration that shrugs off needed progressive reforms as being “too idealistic” and that touts “bipartisanship” with an extremist Republican party as the holy grail. The establishment politics that he represents has had its chance and has failed, both electorally and morally. I see no indication to date that Biden has learned anything from these failures.
16
Democrats are in the unenviable position of having a candidate who can beat Trump but lose the nomination battle and many who can win the nomination but lose the presidential race. They are also in the unfortunate position of being bitterly divided, unlike Republicans, and over-confident. It will require utter desperation on the part of Democrats to unite behind a nominee for the sake of defeating Trump. The absence of such a degree of desperation is good news for Trump.
But Democrats need not wait for eight years of Trump to reach the desired desperation point. Merely imagining how their country will be like after eight years of Trump, and Mike Pence on the cusp of winning in 2024, should compel Democrats to postpone their infighting and move the 'utter desperation point' from the future to the present.
7
"Centrist" is code for corporate tax cuts and the status quo of income inequality. The country is even more hungry for change than in 2016. Biden should have run then. He missed his moment and nothing will get the momentum back. Democrats need a change candidate.
10
The solution is Not Biden. And there is no paradox. Several democratic contenders would crush Trump in 2020. But the democratic party establishment is pretty much against those candidates. Because Big Money.
That is the thing that would lead to Trump winning. Big Money is Why Clinton Lost and Trump Won. Voters, Independents, Progressives, Republicans, Democrats, are done with supporting candidates that support the financial elite against the interests of average Americans. Done. Pundits are not reading the writing on the wall yet.
Biden will support Wall Street and Big Banks and Big PhRMA and Insurance, Et Al, to the detriment of Average Americans. That is why he shouldn't get the nomination. That is why Clinton should not have gotten it.
It baffles me why "pundits" cna't refer to the pre-primary data of 2016. Sanders Crushed Trump in every poll. Every one. Clinton was neck and neck. Can we have some semblance of objectivity in these opinions? It is patently clear that Sanders would crush Trump. Sanders would bring substantial coattails to the house and senate races. That is something most observers fail to note about Clinton. And a Biden and any other pro-corporate candidate. Because they have the taint of corruption. There is no enthusiasm for corruption. And I believe it is very likely to emerge as the defining issue in the 2020 race. Possibly framed as integrity, but it will be about being in the pocket of Big Money factions, or not.
10
@trebor: Hillary didn't lose because her campaign had less money (which is not true). She lost because while Trump was in Wisconsin talking to working class voters about jobs, she was in Florida berating Trump for having fat-shamed a former Miss Universe from Venezuela some 20 years earlier.
IF Joe is the best person to beat Trump, fine. But I think he needs to make it very clear that he will NOT run for re-election, and choose a competent, experienced Senator or Governor as his VP running mate. This will greatly diminish the fears of many
(Myself included ) that he’s just too old. For the record, I’m 60.
Someone my age, or younger, would be an excellent VP candidate. Ladies and Gentlemen, start your engines. It’s time to clean house. And Senate. And especially the Oval Office.
10
I do not understand why so many commentators are worried about losing the moderate democrat and independent voter but are seemingly unconcerned about losing the passionate progressive voter. Pundits appear to believe that it is completely understandable that moderate democrats and independents would either stay home or vote for Trump because they could not stomach a more progressive candidate. We should not forget that 2016 polls, Reuters and RealClearPolitics showed Sanders beating Trump by 14 points in a general election. It should be pointed out that Sanders was doing well with independents in these polls. Let's not forget that Sander's progressive agenda, which was seen as unrealistic, is now generally accepted by most of the American voters. The expectation of many commentators is that if another neoliberal candidate like Biden runs, the young progressives would surely vote against Trump. I do not think we can take our progressive voters for granted. Many want real change and they are tired of waiting.
34
No to Sanders. Or Biden. I respect the latter, but age is a problem.
6
I wouldn’t trust any polls in 2016 if Trump’s success is any indication.
Polls are flawed on many levels.
2
@DLG Sanders' progressive agenda is still unrealistic.
I'm not so sure. I'm not a huge fan of Biden and am to the left of him on most issues. I will vote for him in a New York minute, though, if I think he has the best chance to beat the monstrosity currently squatting in the WH (and at this point I pretty much do believe he has the best chance). I think there are a lot of others who likely will do the same.
9
The rationale for Biden's nomination, which I strongly oppose for reasons that have been stated by others on this site, is that only he can defeat Trump. But as your wonderful columnist Jamelle Bouie explained, that's not enough--we have to defeat Trumpism. And he won't do it. Also, these assertions of his indispensability are based on the questionable assumption that Trump will be on the ballot in 2020. And even if he is, the strong likelihood of an economic recession or worse will change the entire political landscape, to Trump's disadvantage. So, Joe, retire. We've had enough "centrism". Clinton's begat Gingrich, and Obama's begat Trump. Time for a change. (Yes, I feel the Bern.)
36
I would hope that most democrats learned their lesson—that by not voting because THEIR candidate (Bernie Sanders) wasn’t nominated backfired with disastrous results. Mostly, I believe, we just want someone who can win, regardless of race, gender or political leanings. Biden is smart enough to know he’ll have to pick a running mate hopefully from Texas or the Midwest and hopefully female (but not necessarily). To my mind, the most successful candidate is some who can connect to the average American. Sherrod Brown does that quite well.
5
@Judith
Whereas I had hoped the lesson learned would be not to push a Third Way "New Democrat" who offers only the same supply-side economics and interventionist war-mongering that breaks the will of voters.
Let's have a vigorously contested primary. Let's hear more from the candidates and less from the pundits and power brokers who are transparently fighting for maintenance of the status quo which has so richly benefited them the past 40 years. Let's vet our candidates based on their visions for what they and we want our country to become. Let's be bold instead of fearful and conservative. (If not now, when? The planet is at this moment already almost beyond saving.) Then let's vote for the candidate who earns the enthusiastic support of American voters: the middle-class, the working class, the young -now the largest voting block-, democrats and fed-up Independents alike. Because _that_ is the man or woman who will actually have strength enough in a General to win.
Biden has a tough path to the nomination because he has no major accomplishments to cite as evidence that he is on the side of working people. Even this article, whose overall purpose was to find a way for him to win the nomination, couldn't cite any accomplishments. The article said "in a 40-plus-year career, they must exist." Even the writer couldn't find one!
25
@Rob
That's ABSURD.
Just one example, of the countless examples in his half a century career: Obamacare, which saves an additional half a million American lives a decade.
One of the reasons why it's so difficult to achieve progress in a democracy is precisely because citizens (pundits included) are allowed to refuse to do their homework and then expect to "win" anyhow ...
3
@Rob I believe he was one of the forces behind the Violence Against Women act; and though I can’t find reference to it, I read a long time ago that he was a sponsor of the bill that allowed women equal access to credit ( back in the day, we had to get daddy’s or our husband’s approval for a credit card).
I like Joe, I think he has integrity in spades; but, I also think his time has passed. I’m in my 60’s ( medicare, baby!) and I want to see someone younger run, and win.
The future is in the hands of a new generation. It’s time for us boomers to hit the beach and rest on our laurels ( or whatever they’re called nowadays).
4
@Cheryl: you mean this new generation with their "safe spaces" and "micro-aggression" mentality? - I hope not.
I would humbly add a “fourth” problem to your thoughtful list, Mr. Tomasky, of challenges facing Joe Biden. Unfortunately for him, it is not capable of being successfully confronted by the former Vice President’s oratory. I’m referring to what seems, to me at least, a recently surprising but noticeable physical aging. In the video he appeared to be thin, a bit gaunt even, pale of complexion, and with a certain weakness to his voice. Does he have the strength and stamina for a grueling primary process let alone a general election “meat grinder “? Perhaps he will surprise most by announcing that he is not running.
9
@John Grillo
Yes, it’s not a matter of him being too old in a couple years. He’s already too old. His decrease in energy is already apparent.
8
“Nudge left without appearing inauthentic” ... I imagine this was the kind of advice Clinton got from her coterie of advisers. Optics are everything, substance is nothing.
Perhaps Biden should stand on his record of enabling banks, and the soft regulatory environment for corporations in his home state. Good luck to him explaining that to the masses who remember the recession and are still dealing with the fallout.
42
An interesting take, but I'd be careful predicting who can beat whom and who can't. Ford wanted to challenge Reagan in 1980 because the latter was “unelectable.” It didn't turn out that way.
3
Whether we like it or not, Republicans support Trump and they believe he gets things done that they support. They can tell you very clearly that they don’t like the man but appreciate what he’s done and many things he says.
The same cannot be said for Biden. He’s a reaction to Trump, not someone with a strong message. Democrats can only win with someone who will shake things up and energize crowds, yes, someone like Trump.
8
Everyone thinks Biden could beat Trump?? Everyone thought Clinton could beat Trump. I did not, and I do not. Biden would win over the handful of Republicans in blue states who dislike Trump enough to vote for a conservative Democrat. A more economically progressive candidate could win over ten times as many Trump supporters, from all over the country.
49
His time is past. And during his past time, he has too often put himself on the wrong side off issues important to voters today.
To paraphrase a familiar quote, Biden's mantra should be, "If drafted, I will not run; if nominated, I will not accept; if elected, I will not serve."
Amen.
14
"How can the Democrats have a candidate they all agree would stand a very strong chance of recapturing the White House, gaining the power to appoint liberal Supreme Court justices and all the rest, and yet not be hankering to send that candidate into battle?"
Because the folks that would most likely help him win the WH aren't Democratic primary voters. They're moderate Repubs and Independents.
13
Busing has undermined support for many urban school systems, driving families to private schools or the suburbs.
It is also racially discriminatory, giving privileges to people on the basis of race. In order for public schools to regain public support, they will have to return to neighborhood schools
Biden was right to oppose it.
14
Agree that Mr. Biden has flaws. But looking into the candidates with “holier than thou” attitude, none of them has the ability to win. They are all flying in the sky and promoting utopian dreams with zero knowledge on how to finance them. To win an election in New York is different than the rust belt. We need a candidate who can reach out to the general public, just not the fringe interest groups. Biden has a good shot winning if he can run a disciplined campaign. I am afraid that your analysis is biased.
1
Maybe Anita Hill will agree to campaign for Biden.
Also, with Trump threatening to break his campaign promise and go after Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid, maybe an old timer with closer ties to the New Deal-Great Society era is exactly who the voter will trust.
1
While I appreciate Mr. Tomasky's essay, and generally agree with his views, I must disagree that Mr. Biden has almost no chance at the nomination.
Why? It's quite simple, really. He is a white male. And unlike those Bernie Bros in 2016 who voted third party, didn't vote at all, or actually voted for Trump, this scenario simply won't happen this time.
This nomination has everything to do with gender. The Bernie Bros who had to "vote their conscience" and rejected Mrs. Clinton will show up in favor of Mr. Biden, "warts and all". And it may well be said that his "warts" are much more substantial than Mrs. Clinton's were (see: Anita Hill). But they'll show a lot more pragmatism when a white male is nominated that they would for any woman, of any color.
So if Mr. Biden repeats the success Mrs. Clinton had in the primaries, he will receive the Bernie votes that were withheld from her.
And unlike Bernie Bros who wouldn't vote for Mrs. Clinton, Democratic women will vote for Mr. Biden should he win the primaries. Women have long understand that they can't always get their way, so they will not sit this one out and pout the way many of Sanders' voters did in 2016.
The newfound pragmatism of Bernie voters will give Mr. Biden several million more votes in 2020, especially in the Rust Belt states.
9
@Orion Clemens
"Women have long understand that they can't always get their way, so they will not sit this one out and pout the way many of Sanders' voters did in 2016."
Or like the PUMAs did in '08? Except they didn't sit it out, they voted for the Republican.
1
@Orion Clemens More Sanders voters voted for Clinton than Clinton voters went for Obama in 08. Give the lie a rest. The biggest threat to a Dem victory is this hatred & lying from bitter, vengeful Clinton fans
Count me among those who do NOT believe that the gaffe-prone Mr. Biden can defeat Donald Trump.
61
@Frank F
I agree. And a Trump re-election is exactly why the Democrats must keep the impeachment powder dry now.
Why, because Trump isn’t gaffe prone?
Hmmmm...gaffe prone versus malignant narcissist / pathological liar / draft dodger / fraudster.
I don't consider it to be too tough of a choice.
Biden's past position on school busing and crime may not be popular on the liberal coasts but it will earn him a lot of votes in the more sensible middle of the country. He should definitely not apologize for those past remarks and actions.
10
@Aaron Adams so he'll appeal to rural racist you're saying.
There should be a lot of Democratic candidates who can defeat Trump. This time around Trump has actually has a record in government and can't get away so easily with making false promises. Also, he is now is at the center of numerous federal investigations. While some of the expressed fears of him turning the country into a violent fascist state haven't come true we now know he governs in an authoritarian manner and will not become a "normal president." He does have a strong base consisting of white nationalists and evangelicals behind him, and what amounts to a propaganda network of right wing media consisting of Fox News, Limbaugh, Hannity, Beck, Breitbart, etc. Because politics is polarized he is almost guaranteed to win a large number of states but the traditional blue states have more electoral votes than the traditional red states so if the Democrat can win Florida or Ohio this time around that would be big trouble for Trump.
13
Are you kidding. Today the NYT has an article about crime in Baltimore which is increasing. Great go back to the days of crime of high crime. I hear Democrats denouncing FDR and President Obama. This is insanity. If the Democrats want to win, they will not do so by denouncing the New Deal and FDR. In 1972, I heard that while the Democrats lost big, they were investing in the future by capturing the young. I am hearing it again now. I believed it then but I do not believe it today. Burned once. Yes, we need more taxes and we need a better medical system but if the Democrats nominate some one far to the left, they will loose big and we will be stuck with Donald Trump for 4 more years.
6
Count me among the majority of Democrats (and, I think, sane people) who believe electability is the number one qualification for the next Democratic presidential nominee. Donald Trump and the goons in the GOP that support him must be defeated in 2020. Above all other considerations they must be cast out of the White House, and hopefully the Senate too. If this means a Biden nomination I'm all for it. And if it is Biden, we must rally around him like he is the anointed savior. Please spare me another convention where sullen children turn their backs on the nominee because they didn't get their way.
80
@Tim Nelson If the Democratic Party nominates Biden it will be completely discredited among most minorities and Millennials, most Progressives, many women and most people under the age of 70 who make less than $50,000 a year. They may not vote for Trump, but they won't come out for Biden either. He'll be an even worse candidate than Clinton. If you want a centrist so badly, go for Harris or O'Rourke. At least they won't entirely disgrace the party.
3
@Guy Baehr
What is galling is that "minorities, millennials, progressives, many women, most people under the age of 70 who make less than $50,000 a year" are obviously dumb enough that they would stay home and not vote at all thus acting against their own interests.
Who is a disgrace to the party?
They are!
2
A paradox is deceptive contraction. There is nothing contradictory or deceptive about a Biden candidacy. What you see is what you get. White. Male. Older. Moderate. Baggaged. Electable. Biden is the 2020 version of the 2018 Pelosi. He's not a bad guy, just an utterly pragmatic choice. The Democratic left will support him even though he's not a Marxist. Trumpsters will support him without any of Bill Clinton's 'Sista Soulja' dog-whistles. Voters want a President that will protect rights, fight Big Pharma on opiates, tax the rich at Eisenhower levels, get a handle on immigration, and fund infrastructure. Voters want America to return to the world stage, and for our country to lead once again on climate change and human rights, while opposing Russia's kleptocracy, China's imperialism, and Saudi Arabia's wahhabism. Biden will be more than normalcy, though that alone would be refreshing. A Biden Presidency would be a white male stake in the heart of the Confederacy - the final death blow to Nixon's 'Southern Strategy.' Now THAT, is a paradox worth voting for.
31
@mr isaac
As someone who has watched Biden closely for 30 years, I grew increasingly confused reading your post. Are you very sure you haven't mixed Biden up with someone else?
@mr isaac I don't see the logic in these remarks.
Biden is a corporate tool. Whatever advice you have for him to square the circle misses the key issue: he and his Democratic Party had their day. He and his generation of Democratic leaders are destined to be footnotes to history—asterisks to the Reagan Era.
Joe Biden may not know it, but he is a loser. He needs to go away, go scrounge some bucks from his corporate masters. Not waste any more of Americans time.
71
@Philip Cafaro:
You note: "He needs to go away, go scrounge some bucks from his corporate masters."
Not long ago, Mr. Biden signed an $8million corporate "book" deal. That's how corporations enrich democrats.
So Old Joe is right in top of the gravy train.
https://emcphd.wordpress.com
Biden is not popular with anyone who wanted criminal justice reform in the 90s. He gave nightmares to the drug reform crowd. He helped bring Nixonian thinking on crime into the Democratic Party. I can't stomach the idea of that kind of bad energy inhabiting the White House again.
39
@Patricia: so you’d vote for that good energy sitting in the White House right now? That would be the result of that thought process. Sitting out out does the same. Four more years of insanity.
Like a lot of Democrats, I want a pragmatic moderate in office, not a divisive socialist. If not Biden, then who?
8
@Michael
Socialism, by its definition is not divisive, it is inclusive, therefore the term, "socialism." Unfortunately the Republicans and the Democrats as well, have demonized the term, even though we already have forms of it, in Medicare, Social Security, food stamps, and to a small extent, the Affordable Health Care Act, all of which are wildly popular. All westernised countries, other than the U.S., have single payer health care, which is a form of socialism, but people aren't calling it socialism, it's just health care that works for all and is less expensive because you knock out the middleman. Capitalism is not the end all of everything. When people cannot afford to buy goods and services because of their expensive health care and low wages, it fails.
16
@dave beemon All westernized countries do _not_ have single payer health care. They have universal healthcare which is a very different thing. Some westernized countries have insurance companies, some have a single payer, some have actually socialized medicine. It is very important to understand that there are _many_ different ways to have universal healthcare.
@Michael, Jay Inslee, Sherrod Brown, and John Hickenlooper come to mind. Maybe Steve Bullock. Pragmatic moderates all.
1
Joe Biden should be the nominee because He will beat Trump!
8
Like many pieces designed to defend the efficacy of the alleged pragmatism of the centrist position, the article condescends to the party's left, supposing that its members judgment is so blinkered that when they see Biden the see an unacceptable white male and reflexively reject him. This is absurd and perv Erin of useful, effective political discourse. What the left objects to in Biden are his corporate affiliations and policy positions favoring a small class of private interests and playing the politics of race. The latter are not easily forgiven, no matter what he says now and the former not easily dispelled. In any event, Biden is repugnant to the left on the basis of policy not his white male identity. Because of this, I can tell you if the party nominates Biden many people will just stay home next November.
12
Biden is not in step with the times.....he doesn't understand the needs of of voters today. and he carries a lot of baggage!
21
"Corporate ties" are not what brought Hillary down.
Perceived lack of authenticity is what brought Hillary down.
And, unfortunately, perceived authenticity (not to be confused with honesty) is what elevated DJT.
Joe Biden possesses many of the qualities Hillary did not: foremost-authenticity and sincerity.
And, he can reach those independents, which we Democrats need, to win this election.
I am confident that he has evolved, since Anita Hill and busing.
Let's give him a chance to present himself and his positions.
19
@Joe
Both of those things made her a poor candidate. It doesn’t have to be only one thing.
3
@BK
I agree with you. Both her corporate ties and perceived lack of authenticity brought Hillary down-among other factors.
I think the point I'm trying to make is that, for many of us voters, the decision to cast a vote in a particular candidate's favor, not counting party loyalty, can be a very visceral and intuitive one.
Do I trust this person? Do I like this person?
These are the questions that many voters ask themselves?
That's not to say that a candidate's record is not important. Of course, it is.
But, I believe that relatively few people have the time to uncover the sometimes complex truth about a candidate's positions and history.
They end up depending on what they hear from others (the daily spin) and how they "feel" about this or that candidate.
Again, I ask, don't sweep Biden aside.
If we Democrats want to win, I believe that he's worth a serious look.
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@Joe
If Biden can fake authenticity, he's got it made.
Biden's race and gender won't count against him any more than Sanders' or O'Rourke's will, both of whom are considered serious contenders. And as for Biden's past, show me another serious contender for the Democratic nomination -- male or female -- that doesn't also have one (Kamala Harris, anyone? Elizabeth Warren?).
Yes, Biden faces challenges to getting the nomination. So does everyone else. In 2016, Republicans had the good wisdom to allow their voters to select their nominee, rather than their party elite. It paid off for them (if not for our nation, our democracy, the world order, and common decency).
Bring on the primaries, and may the best candidate win.
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@Htb
I’d also say that although the intersectionalist progressives are very loud on Twitter on certain editorial pages, we will simply not know how big their true numbers are until the primaries. During the Congressional elections, for example, progressives outside of a few select districts dramatically underperformed moderates. Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez were not exactly typical.
I believe Biden could win the primaries by a landslide and then handily beat Trump. But, I’m in Montana. Perhaps I’m wrong.
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@Htb
" as for Biden's past, show me another serious contender for the Democratic nomination -- male or female -- that doesn't also have one"
Wait, what other contender fought desegregation? Voted for the iraq war? Biden by far has the worst record. Warren does not have this problem...
40% of Democrats are non-white. How is he possibly going to win a general election if the base abandons him over racist positions?
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@Cass
No, you're not wrong! I'm not in Montana but I agree with you completely.
From true blue socialist Sanders to the young and upcoming Democratic socialist/progressive AOC, this is not the way to win the electoral college and beat Trump.
1
Biden's problems are more than this op-ed documents. It's not just a few incidents - he basically has sided with corporate
control and malfeasance for his entire career - the bankruptcy bill. School bussing. And yes, Anita Hill. For people saying, that was then, this is now - well, I was in my 20's when the Anita Hill case broke, and it was clear even then that Joe ignored what good character and decency demanded, ignored what fairness and justice demanded, just like he has on multiple occasions. That's the problem in a nutshell - every time he had a chance to defend the interests of people, he chose the interests of the powerful.
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@Barbara
Relative chicken feed compared to the massive criminal malfeasance festering in the white house. I'm sorry, but it just is. Have some perspective. The republic is literally hanging in the balance. A touch of corporatism is totally fine with me compared to out-and-out mobsterism. It would be refreshing, actually.
Biden is not going to do anything as president in the context of Anita Hill that you will find objectionable on a rational basis, not at this point on his life. He's not going to do anything in regard to busing, likewise. The dude's waaaay past the point of needing to kowtow to stuff that he might have been compromised on in the past. He'd have his on eye on posterity/legacy, and from THAT perspective he's a darn good bet.
Come on, people. Sheesh.
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@Barbara
I agree. It seems that many have fuzzy memories where it comes to Biden. I do not. The legion of engaged young voters now will reject him, not for being white, old, and male, but for having been egregiously and enthusiastically on the wrong side of issues so often over the decades. I have seen no evidence he's "evolved" in many of these problem areas, but I have seen, time and again, his arrogance and pique.
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@Barbara
None of that would hurt Biden in a general election against Trump. In fact, most of what you’ve mentioned would probably help Biden in many conservative counties.
2
Its news to me that everyone believes Biden can beat Trump. What is the evidence for that? Conventional wisdom?
Voters would stay home in droves if Biden were the nominee. He is a backward looking politician who is out of touch with a large part of the country, particularly the Democrats and other voters who are needed to go to the polls in numbers like they did in 2018 but more so.
Putting someone who is a part of the past at the top of the ticket would be a message to many voters that the Democratic Party is still stuck somewhere in the 1980s or 90s and has no understanding of so many of us.
Biden's temperament means he will be provoked by Trump and his backward looking politics means he has no message of hope for the future to bring.
He is the most likely to lose to Trump, not the most likely to win.
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No, please, no. Like most people I know, I want passionately to campaign for someone I'm excited about, someone who can articulate, and embody, the values that will move us away from Trumpism and all the GOP stands for, and toward a more perfect union. This election will surely be a turning point for our country, and I want a turn toward the common good and a better future. Biden is a lukewarm dose of the past.
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@teach
You and every other American who wants to make sure Trump and "Trumpism and all the GOP stands for" is defeated in 2020 must pledge to "passionately campaign" for whoever is the Democratic candidate, whether it's Biden or someone else.
What percentage of the red state Democrats who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for "socialists?"
Democrats became the majority in the House in 2018 because of the number of moderate Dems who beat Republicans, including incumbents, in red states and red districts. Not because progressive/Democratic socialists won seats in 2018.
It would be a mistake to throw out Biden unless he can "make clear exactly what he has learned in the intervening 28 years." TWENTY EIGHT YEARS!
That's more than the age of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez!
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@Mimi, what does his long tease re maybe I'll run say about him and his non respect of voters. What will he know in 2 weeks that he doesn't know now?
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@teach Spot on and well said. You just left out that he's kinda Hillary in a pair of pants and a suit, not a pants suit. He's last century's model, time to go away now.
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I find it odd that a candidate gets attacked for being "too corporate." Over half of Americans work for and/or invest in corporations. Corporations are not the enemy. Ultimately, we can have a healthy economy only when the private sector, i.e. corporations, are doing well. If the stock market crashes, the people who will suffer most will not be the rich. You will see massive layoffs and tens of millions of Americans will see their life savings and retirements ruined.
I'm a lifelong Democrat and I believe the party has gone so far left that I'm frightened of what will happen if the Democrats take over and wage war on corporate America, as the party seems determined to do. I will consider voting only for a "corporate" Democrat like Joe Biden.
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@J.
Corporate Democrats like the Clintons made Donald Trump possible because inequities in America have increased rapidly over the last 30 years under centrist both Democrat and Republican administrations. What are the specific policies and programs that the Democratic left supports that is so objectionable to those who bemoan the so-called leftward shift of the party? Admittedly, there are proposals that lack reality substane (such as moving to a fully-realized single payer system in just two years), but exactly what is too far left in thinking that the rich should pay more taxes, that climate change matters, that women should make their own reproductive decisions, and that Americans should reject racism. If you'd rather support Trump and the increasingly jingoistic GOP, then go ahead, but don't complain that it's because Democrats are too far left.
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@J. "Corporate" in this context does not refer to all corporations, it refers to the giant mega-corporations that have taken over our politics. The economy does best when small businesses are created. The dismantling of large corporations does not kill them, it just divides the spoils and re-energizes competition. Regulations have also been shown to have few negative effects on corporations. I am at a loss to understand why anyone, but especially a lifelong Democrat, would want corporations to have unfettered power. Google the phrase "I welcome their hatred" and take some inspiration from FDR.
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@J. You should stop pretending to be a democrat. It is clear to me that the DFL has been infiltrated by fake democrats who claim to be moderates. As such, they can work from inside the DFL when the dems have some level of control to prevent them from passing any real progressive legislation. We have the ACA and not medicare for all because when the dems held all of congress and the presidency the moderates kept the dems from getting what they really wanted. Instead we got more money for insurance companies and millions still without healthcare.
If the DFL runs a moderate they won't get my vote. We would be better off letting Trump destroy the country than to live under the fake leadership of a moderate democrat. Someone who will help keep the serfs down for the wealthy.
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Back when Howard Dean ran for President, he was leading the pack before the Iowa caucuses. I was a supporter of his and went to Des Moines as one of thousands to campaign for him. The campaign office was chocker block filled with volunteers. Just down the street was John Kerry's campaign office, it was basically empty. Kerry won Iowa hands down.
Point is the people make the decisions when they vote, polls mean little. If Joe Biden is the best candidate to beat Trump, the voters will sense that and he'll get their vote.
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@cherrylog754 Yeah, I was a fervent Dean supporter as well, giving him my time and my money. I'm very careful about falling in love with a candidate these days, as I know I'm going to get my heart broken. I'm not excited about Biden, Warren, Booker, Harris, but I'll vote for and back whoever gets the nomination. It would be great to be in love with the candidate, but I've come to view politics like I view my marriage: on some days I like my spouse; other days I love him.
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@cherrylog754 And frankly, Democratic voters have rejected Biden twice for President.
1
I'm an old white man and I can't count the ways in which I dislike Joe Biden. He's a smooth talking politician, and of course it's important to understand politics, but not to have been immersed in the sludge for 30 odd years and have nothing to show for it. He is only going to run if he thinks he can win, which is why he hasn't declared yet. He's not going to run because he think he can implement a stop to global warming or fix the wage gap, or fight for the civil rights of women and blacks, Latinos, Muslims and gays, which is to say, all of America. He's not going to convert us to sustainable energy. He just wants to win. He's on his usual ego trip. And it's not good enough.
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@Dave beemon I respectfully disagree with your description Of Joe Biden. The man has been in politics for 40 years and certainly his views on issues have evolved as mine will.
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@dave beemon You nailed it. He really has nothing he passionately cares about changing for the better. He's not a leader. And with so many great candidates who do, that rules him out.
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@dave beemon
Thank you for articulating this sentiment so perfectly! He is only about ego and winning. People seem to fast forget the plagiarism that derailed his first bid to become President. He so truly is not worthy of the office.
11
“I would not say, and I don’t think any Democrat should say, that a woman or a person of color (or both) can’t win the presidency in 2020.”
Very carefully phrased; however I’m more interested in what that author actually believes to be true than in what he feels he would not, or should not, say.
3
Nobody truly wants the Status Quo. Hence the overriding and continuing dilemma.
16
Tomasky neglected to mention Biden's support for a harsher bankruptcy regimen for individual; his failures in Iraq as VP; his endorsement of a Republican in a tight House race and his ability to make verbal gaffes. President Obama overlooked his comment, "I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that's a storybook, man." Nobody overlooked his plagiarism in his 1988 campaign for president.
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Joe Biden is not the most popular Democrat -- he just has the most name recognition because 24/7 all the corporate media are creating the story: "Will Biden Run?" His campaign -- like Trump's, is a media generated event.
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Gee, how wonderful. If Biden says the right things -- all the stuff he doesn't actually believe -- he just might win the nomination of a party whose base does not want him. And then, a4 years of excruciating Obama/Clintonism, with the White House doing its utmost to give the store away to Republicans in the name of bipartisanship.
What could possibly go wrong with that?
66
Joe Biden symbolizes (among others) the historic path that merged our two-party system into one: the donor party. The crowning achievement of this merger was to hand our democracy, the promise of America, over to a system of government that exclusively serves the interests of corporate and individual wealth and privilege.
The crowning achievement of the donor party was getting elected (or trying to) by saying nothing of substance to voters while serving the interests of the plutocrats behind closed doors (Clinton can never be forgiven for behind-closed-doors secret speeches and promises to the donor class).
Biden clearly belongs to the single donor class party and can never win in 2020. The candidate who returns the Democratic party back to its worker oriented and middle class roots and presents a sweeping bold plan to once again make America a country that serves the interest of everyone will win.
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Biden won't get the nomination, because the party has moved to the left and is more open to social democracy. Events are happening daily to show the reasons; for example, the college admissions scandal, fresh evidence of inequality in America.
Lesser reasons are working against him, such as his age, his dysfunctional son, Hunter, and his previous gaffes. But the main reason is structural, the crisis of capitalism
16
Given Biden’s history of opposing school integration in the 1970s, he should be unacceptable to those who oppose racism, and who think the country has not done enough to fight racism.
There are at least half a dozen other Democrats who have said they will run or are expected to run who are far more suitable for Democrats and the country than Biden.
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@Richard
Actually, he opposed busing, not integration. Big difference ...
2
Biden would have never been a strong choice for me, but after he actively campaigned (for big $$$) for the GOP candidate in our district (MI 6) during a heated campaign, refusing to even meet for 10 minutes with the Democratic candidate, he's dead to me and many others here.
He's got all of Clinton's negatives and then some. (His shameful role in the Anita Hill trial.) If the DNC / DCCC manipulates things so he's the candidate it's going to be a bloodbath worse than 2016.
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@Hillary Rettig
You raise a great point about the DNC. There have been endless pieces written about what Democratic politicians have learned from 2016 and what their strategy is moving forward. But what about the DNC? We haven't heard of much reckoning on their part. Fraudulent debates, the "superdelegate" nonsense subverting the will of the voters - there is a lot for them to improve on following 2016. It's time we heard from them, and fast.
@Hillary Rettig
If it ends up Biden v "trump" and Biden remains "dead to you" in the general, we will know who to blame regarding "bloodbath".
And that would be a horrible shame.
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@Hillary Rettig. Amazing that he campaigned for the enemy. He should stay out of the race or run in the Republican primary.
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Another Clintonite sore that Sanders is going to win the nomination.
Submitted 12:40
24
I don't want Sanders either. Not with his cult of personality. No Biden, and no Sanders either.
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@Me
Anybody but Bernie, even Joe Biden.
1
His age works against him, too.
10
"Nearly everyone thinks he can beat Donald Trump. At the same time, no one thinks he’ll get the chance to do it ..."
Nearly everyone??? Where do you get that information? Obviously, you haven't asked me or some of the other posters here. Most of us understand that without defeating Trump (and the other Republicans) we don't stand a chance of implementing any of our other progressive dreams.
Joe in 2020!
4
I dont see much hope for cleaning up the Biden image to make him presentable, nor do I buy the writer's sheer assertion that he could beat Trump - Trump would have his fun with Biden and destroy him as he has so many other second rate candidates. Trump could neither faze nor destroy Sanders a very different kind of political animal who could save Trump's crookedness and kind of capitalism. As tp Biden, I pretty much agree with Cockburn's piece;
Biden on the Relaunch Pad: He’s Worse Than You Thought https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/03/11/biden-on-the-relaunch-pad-hes-worse-than-you-thought/?fbclid=IwAR2OYRxasTbFWS8eFGFAG_WLELvzfHCVPtK6fKu7VXp-1NnAuir_5Mfw20k
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@michael roloff, I like this quote from the article you cite: "Whether Biden can win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination will largely depend on how many voters don’t know much about his actual record." Bingo.
1
@michael roloff
I can't think of a better reason to disqualify Biden than his support of the Iraq war.
But his tough on crime bill, which gave us the biggest prison population in the world (most of them black, most of them for drug offenses) is a good second reason.
And his role in abolishing bankruptcy for student debt is a good third reason.
For years, the Democratic right has been saying, "You have to vote for our centerist [conservative] candidate, because otherwise the Republicans will get in and put anti-abortion judges on the Supreme Court."
Well, you see how well that worked.
I think candidates on the left, who are offering health care for all, tax-paid college, and the same social benefits that the Western Europeans get, will do better in the polls than candidates like Hillary who tell you to "shop around" for affordable health insurance.
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I woud add this as a big reason NOT to elect Biden.
https://fpif.org/biden_iraq_and_obamas_betrayal/
“In his powerful position as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he orchestrated a propaganda show designed to sell the war to skeptical colleagues and the America public by ensuring that dissenting voices would not get a fair hearing.”
“As Scott Ritter, the former chief UN weapons inspector, noted at the time, “For Sen. Biden’s Iraq hearings to be anything more than a political sham used to invoke a modern-day Gulf of Tonkin resolution-equivalent for Iraq, his committee will need to ask hard questions – and demand hard facts – concerning the real nature of the weapons threat posed by Iraq.”
It soon became apparent that Biden had no intention of doing so. Biden refused to even allow Ritter himself – who knew more about Iraq’s WMD capabilities than anyone and would have testified that Iraq had achieved at least qualitative disarmament – to testify. Ironically, on Meet the Press last year, Biden defended his false claims about Iraqi WMDs by insisting that “everyone in the world thought he had them. The weapons inspectors said he had them.”
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@steve Everyone in the world certainly did not include me (and many people I knew), and it was apparent at the time that the evidence for them was incredibly weak and hyped.
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@steve
For the last 17 years, every time someone says how nice Biden is, I go off on this same story about how Biden, as head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, could have stopped the march to war if he'd had any kind of backbone. Other cowards who followed him over the cliff were Kerry and HRC.
2
@steve
The Iraq war was the biggest policy disaster of this century. I can't understand why anyone who voted for the war would be considered for a position of trust or judgment.
That includes Hillary Clinton. The only way I could vote for her was against Trump.
The Iraq war cost the lives of at least 150,000 Iraqis. It destroyed a middle-class country. And it handed the region over to Isis.
Why did they vote for the war? There are only two reasons. Either they were stupid, or cynical. Neither is acceptable.
2
Well, that's what the primaries are for. Every candidate gets to make their own case, and Democratic voters get to voice their preference. Come what may, there's no reason to count Biden out now, before he has even tossed his hat into the ring!
17
@NM “Well, that's what the primaries are for. Every candidate gets to make their own case, and Democratic voters get to voice their preference.”
Apparently you weren’t around for the 2016 election. The Democratic voters were disenfranchised of their voice in the Democratic primary.
I am a female, fairly far left socialist-leaning life-long Democrat, feminist, member of a minority religion much misunderstood, and I live in a famously liberal state. It's nuts that the US has never elected a woman president. I agree with the New Green Deal and Medicare for all.
But I want Joe Biden to be the candidate. Or another moderate, white man. Nothing matters more than beating the GOP as handily as possible. Because of the electoral college and gerrymandering, this will happen only by putting forward a candidate that disenchanted conservatives will support. Maybe another candidate could win - maybe a person of color or a woman could beat him. But honestly, they probably can't, and if they did, what's the cost in further division and rancor? Can't we wait four years of bringing the country back into some kind of moderately functioning democracy before trying that?
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@Reader Me too.
14
@Reader
I am also rooting for Biden. It can't be a coincidence that the prospect of a Biden candidacy both intimidates Trump and encourages Democrsts. ;)
26
@Reader Besides those who would vote for anyone opposing Trump, who would get excited about voting for Biden? Turnout can't depend on the desire to cast a negative vote. And Biden doesn't have it in him to generate that kind of energy in voters - if he did, he would already have wone the presidency.
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Biden is "too centrist and corporate"
Exactly. In today's America, these traits are the last thing the country needs in its leader. Corporate ties are what brought Hillary down. The same will happen to Biden, unless he totally breaks those ties.
The lack of corporate ties is one of the things that makes Bernie Sanders so wildly popular. It's why millions of citizens are willing to send Sanders millions of dollars in small donations.
At the root of America's current problems is the corporate control of our government. That needs to be fixed -- ASAP! But that certainly won't happen with a centrist/corporatist in the white house. Big, big problem for Biden.
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@SalinasPhil Hmmm, I think Jim Comey, Bernie bros, and Vladimir Putin brought Hillary down more than corporate ties did.
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@SalinasPhil Corporate ties are not what brought Hillary down. She lost because she is innately unlikeable, she was cocky and fake. If you believe the Obama to Trump voters rejected her because she was not liberal enough you are dreaming. We need a centrist to bring us together. The last thing we need is a divisive progressive pushing ideas that are unpopular like single payer, open borders, reparations and abolishing ICE.
7
@Tim Nelson - When you mention “Bernie Bros” you undermine your point. Sure, some of them just liked him, but when he asked his supporters to support Hillary, the ones you’re referring to did not. Her negatives, like being a hawk and corporate, likely hurt.
On the hawk front, commenters are saying Biden didn’t only support Bush Jr.’s Iraq war to survive politically (like Hillary?), Biden was a cheerleader for that war.
On the corporate front, another commenter has written that policies hurting corps will mostly hurt middle and lower classes. The critique on the left, is corporations have benefited most from this economy, and have little incentive to equitably share profits with American workers.
Changing that could cause some pain, because corps and the wealthy are adept at protecting their wealth and passing pain onto others. Our laws urge them to.
Reforms, like Warren’s trust busting proposal, workers on boards, etc., could help workers, peel back mergers, break monopolies, and let smaller businesses benefit from modern markets like Amazon’s. That suggests, reformers are also pro-corporate, but not pro-status quo.
It’s unclear how Biden can both pivot from mistakes in the rear view, and show he has plans like Warren and others, without losing his appeal to disaffected Republicans who broadly disagree with Dems on policy. If he tries to campaign with a smile and no substance (2008?), that sounds like a losing recipe in the primary and the general election.
17