Believe it or not, those who have been in business understand that it's possible for both sides to win. Unlike politicians and pundits, reality is not a zero sum game, and compromise doesn't have to mean that both sides lose.
3
Unfortunately, Trump is such a poor negotiator I predict one winner. Trump’s attraction to evil dictators is well documented and historically tragic. I would be hard pressed to guess who would win in a compilation for Trump’s love - Putin or Kim. If pushed I would guess Putin because there is always the possibility of more monetary rewards for Trump and his family.
8
I seem to be missing the point of this exercise in diplomacy. What benefit can North Korea give to the US? If it attacks anyone with nukes, it's destroyed. If it becomes belligerent, it gets destroyed. if it ticks us off, weaponized economic sanctions will destroy it.
How is trump and his depleted and inexperienced State Department going to do anything to benefit the US?
We have a man who needs praise and a win, about to be indicted at home, going back to the site of our largest defeat, to make a "deal" with a crazy man who can offer us nothing.
What a waste of time and taxpayer dollars.
22
Many people seem to think summits like this are supposed to achieve breakthroughs. No, they aren't. There won't be a winner and a loser at this Vietnam summit just like there wasn't at the Singapore summit.
Battles and wars are win-lose. Deals are win-win. No one enters into a deal that is a loser for them. Why would they? They always have the option to walk away.
"Experts" like Nicholas Eberstadt don't understand that. People with experience in doing deals do. Just watch Donald Trump and "see what happens". I think good will come out of it. But in the end, it is all up to Kim Jong Un.
1
It will be funny, to say the least, if Kim Jong-Un receives a Nobel Peace Prize, while Trump doesn't.
1
Like on "Battle for Dream Island"? our children watch it....
or like "Survivor"? -- we watch it....(maybe)
or like almost any show on "Food Network"? (we might watch those, or "Project Runway," or a million others...
What happened to the old corporate mantra "Win-Win"?
No more?
Was it an illusion to begin with?
or are things maybe NOT so black-and-white?
my experience tells me that "shades of grey" are more like it....
think about that?
1
I am very surprised the bone spurs did not prevent Trump from going to Viet Nam (again)
2
Exactly right.
Let's get serious. Mine North Korea's harbors. No oil in. No missiles out.
NK saw Iraq get invaded w no weapons- it will never give up these nukes, nor would we our's. Stop that as a goal. It's too late and makes the US look weak.
It saw Pakistan and India get isolated when they first got nukes and then finally reintegrated back into the world. That is its aim.
It can provoke no true crisis or risk its destruction: stop taking that bait.
We will never leave SK because of the war fought there and it's unthinkable to have lost that many men for nothing.
Thus it's all status quo ante.
We can only isolate and boycott it as it makes trouble worldwide like the USSR did. China benefits from the fact NK wastes our $, military and resolve and will not assist us. Unless we trade NK for something it needs, which is not much from us. It already has Taiwan de facto.
We needed to bomb NK weapons facilities back when NK started, as Israel did in Syria and Iraq. China was weak then and there would've been 0 repercussions.
Cat's out of the bag now.
The only bright spot I've found is that the author of an NYT Opinion piece so critical of Trump works for the most prestigious of conservative think tanks, the American Enterprise Institute. Any cracks in the wall of conservative support for Trump are to be welcomed. I hope for more.
1
You are missing the point.
It is the Korean People who wants reunification. The question is how much we can push to prevent it. The Koreas have brought down the watchtowers on their side of DMZ. Buddhist monks have started the exchange. Railroad upgrade study is underway to connect South Korea to the Trans-Siberian. Split families can visit each other (very emotionally supported in both Koreas).
This detente is moving so fast that Pompeo said something like peace between the Koreas is moving faster than denuclearization.
Trump is going there to play catch up. He will sign a peace treaty to formalize the de-facto peace & detente between the Koreas.
@Deep Thought
This type of "detente" has happened numerous times in the past without much really changing. There have been exchange visits and economic cooperation which most have fallen apart. Long-term agreements will take a long time to negotiate. The truce that ended the war took about two years to complete.
1
Of course Kim will, again, "play the dotard". Trump is clearly the pasty here, he will, again, give something for nothing, and declare "victory". The "great negotiator"....LOL!! The fact that the senate Republicans have been enabling his wholesale selling out of American interest is shameful beyond comprehension.
3
Reading this, you'd think it was a piece of NK propaganda. The notion that Trump/Pompeo don't have a robust set of plans and backup plans is laughable. NYT continues to embarrass itself publishing articles authored by pundits suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Just like Trump wants the wall, Trump also wants the Nobel Peace prize. He believes both are essential to his re=election. He will build a narrative with his base to convince them that he is about to achieve both, reality be damned.
Have the Communists ever had it so easy to manipulate a American President who has such a maleable ego. It is once in a century that such an easy touch appears on the world scene.
Trump has always been into visuals and staging and when Mr. Kim stopped ( for the time being) his missile testing Trump was eager to confuse Americans as this being denuclearization. Is there anything more frightening to the American public then watching those nuclear missiles take flight with all vectors pointing to the U.S.
In the future days and weeks lets watch our Secretary of State and our National Security advisor sign on to Trump's charade. It is either that or these craven opportunists will lose their cherished positions.
1
I know this is an opinion piece, but it is not deserving of space in the NYT. It is possibly one of the worst thought out, unbalanced and weak political pieces I have ever read.
It pretends to have insight into both the mind of Kin Jong-un and Trump that the writer cannot possibly have and based on these illogical premises draws 'conclusions' that are simply ridiculous.
This should never have been published except I am sure it fits the recent New York Times sensationlist stance.
UTTER RUBBISH
@Nige
Trump's mind is not complicated--insight is not needed...but Nicholas Eberstadt does have some background knowledge on NK.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Eberstadt
3
I don't often agree with the American Enterprise Institute. On this one though, Eberstadt is more right than wrong. The analysis is hawkish and gloomy but mostly correct.
My main criticism is Eberstadt is focused entirely on Kim's bad behavior. The US wouldn't find ourselves contemplating these questions if we had a President who wasn't credibly accused as both a traitor and a fool. The examples are too lengthy to detail here.
I don't consider Stephen Biegun highly respected. However, even if he was, Eberstadt and AEI are both pretending Biegun is any more capable of containing Trump than an other effort so far. The list of failures is long and distinguished three years into the administration. I would suggest Biegun is a step down rather than a step up.
Why won't Eberstadt simply admit most of the risk to US interests begins and ends with Trump, not Kim?
3
Meeting in Hanoi was not chosen from throwing a dart to a map. Kim sees the North/South Vietnamese reunification as a blue print for his own reunification of North and South Korea. He no doubt revels in the parallels.
Eberstatdt hints at but does not explicitly say that the moment the US withdraws forces from South Korea Kim will march on the South and roll into Seoul with tanks and guns.
Once again Mr Trump is being played for a fool while the world watches anxiously. What will he give away this time?
6
One can hope for a breakthrough on new hairstyles...as that is more likely than any nuclear agreement....
3
The all important element of “time” is decidedly not in Trump’s already inept deal making favor, primarily with a near future of perilous domestic investigations and a likely impeachment, while the North Korean totalitarian, being in complete political control, can afford to play the “long game” and let the impatient, grasping Trump make the first tactical concession/error. Kim is also expected to continue composing for his Dear Donny more of those impactfull love letters, which the deeply insecure Fake President simply swoons over receiving. The North Koreans have no doubt assiduously studied his narcissistic weak spots, to fully leverage for their advantage. What a way to run a foreign policy shop!
3
"Rocket Man": 2
“Mentally deranged U.S. Dotard” : 0
This will be the result of the second "Bout" between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump.
And yes, the score cards will each have the nick-names as assigned to the other by each contender.
When the Dotard returned to America from the 1st bout, he stated that America and the world is now a much safer place . . . due to his efforts during the meeting with Rocket Man.
We know Kim has not stopped developing and building nuclear weapons, OK, he did stop testing - as far as we know.
Kim did get the end of yearly war games in South Korea which have been on-going for 60 years !
What will "The Dotard" give away this time ? . . . and of course get nothing in return.
Kim Jong-un knows that Donald Trump is a fool and a terrible deal-maker and will use this against Trump's insatiable ego to strengthen North Korea.
There's at least one good thing from all this -
Trump will be out of OUR country for a week !
4
One thing Kim would really love coming out of this meeting is for Trump to agree to pull all US troops out of South Korea.
This would be a complete victory for Kim after the first meeting, when Trump announced to the shock of our South Korean allies that the US was going to stop military exercises with South Korea.
Kim will be free to do whatever he wants in that region, despite his promises, since there is no program for inspection to make sure that NK isn't building nukes.
1
Trump will do anything to say he came out on top. The only problem is his interests do not reflect the national interest.
It is in the best interest of this country that North Korea scrap its nuclear arsenal, but actually verifying this requires more than handshake from Kim who I’m guessing knows he has 3 years at best to crank out as many weapons of mass destruction while our Toddler in Chief fiddles with the remote on his numerous TVs during executive time.
I can’t wait for #46, whomever that might be to navigate our country back from this nightmare.
4
I vehemently disagree with the title of this essay. "One wants to make North Korea safe for the world, while the other wants to make the world safe for North Korea."
Where is the evidence that Trump actually wants to make North Korea safe for the world? Where is the evidence that he cares about anything but himself?
The fact that this traitorous stooge is allowed to talk in private to yet another monster is one of the most unbelievable failures of government I've ever seen. We saw what happened when Trump came out of his SECOND meeting with Putin, again held, as the first time, completely without witnesses besides his translator- he spoke like a traitor who had been beaten about the ears for the previous hour, and he was able to pathetically walk it back with some stupid lie the next day, about how he "misspoke".
Sorry, but where's the evidence he isn't going to North Korea to pick up Putin's next assignment?
For the American government to allow this to continue to happen is a disgrace, and a betrayal. I can't see how this could be explained in another way. There is SIGNIFICANT evidence that Trump is a Russian stooge, and until that evidence is incontrovertibly refuted, he shouldn't be allowed to talk to ANY foreign powers in private, least of all despots who have a strong interest in colluding with Putin.
5
Trump is going into this desperate for a foreign policy "success" and a Nobel Prize. That alone gives the North Koreans the upper hand.
6
@Barry Short good point- don't let anyone think for a SECOND that the president wouldn't act in direct opposition to national interest if it meant personal glory for him.
4
The White House issued the following statement today in preparation for the upcoming summit: ""The agenda so far includes long, romantic walks around Sword Lake, a visit to the water puppets, sharing some ideas on how to shut down the press and lots and lots of pho."
8
The notion that the White House has no strategy is false and dangerously disarming: Trump has a single guiding vision, and that involves making himself look good in the media to his narrow base. Nothing else matters.
The juicy fruit he's contemplating in Hanoi is formally ending the Korean War - there's endless soundbite mileage and maybe a Nobel in that. And, Trump correctly calculates, American media can be counted on to gleefully come along - the long war ended at last. Expect MASH clips and hero marches, etc.
Kim, on the other hand, didn't choose Hanoi because (as CNN reported) his transport can't take him any further: he carefully calculated inviting Trump to the site of a previous American surrender, on another contested Asian peninsula.
America threw in the towel in Vietnam, and from Kim's perspective, a Peace Treaty in Korea means exactly the same thing: a unilateral American declaration that it's no longer willing to fight.
While Trump basks in his self-imagined greatness, Kim's media will be cheering this second, and far more consequential, American surrender.
51
@Neander Exactly right. You can already see the self congratulations among Trump & his fan boys & fan girls. "Trump ended the Korean War".
6
During the Vietnam war, on a news interview program, one of our officials was asked what we would do if North Korea stared up trouble for South Korea. He answered that they must realize they had been mapped for total nuclear destruction. Before Trump, Russian Military were talking about their "Nuclear option”. I don't know whose address is programmed on their nuclear missiles, but 6000 of them are said to have ours. Kim doesn't gain anything with the missiles but just about everything without them. So, we will see what he says. At least Trump is talking to him. There has also been a change from Russia. Putin says he would not use nuclear bombs unless attacked with them. He also said a nuclear exchange would be the end of civilization as we know it. There have been all sorts of degrading comments from editorials in the press about Trump's first meeting with Kim. But, no matter how little he achieved the first time, it was 100% more than any previous president. No matter what he achieves this time, it will again be 100% more than any other president. Hopefully, when all this Mueller investigation is done, he will be sitting down with Putin to work out a nuclear ban on certain types of weapons. Apparently, Russia has been pushing the limits for the last several years.
Heel spurs not acting up?
Guess not!
3
Awarding Donald Trump a Nobel prize would be like awarding Kanye West a Grammy.
Considering Trump's track record with Kim Jong-un (the more intelligent of the two), he will loose this meeting, too, just like he lost the first one. Trump must have some free executive time to burn and plenty of taxpayer money to waste, that is my guess.
2
China is the one that controls the keys to peace and of course, Trump started a trade war with them. He has no clue how allies can help us.
Trump and rest of his predecessors are in the same boat we've always been. NK is not giving up their nukes because it'd be suicide. I don't blame him for not accomplishing more, but it's hilarious when his supporters think he's actually achieved something and then claims we'd be in a war if he weren't elected President.
3
I wouldn’t put it past Trump (after his meeting in Vietnam) to say something like ... “I did serve in Vietnam, even though I have bone spurs”.
3
Mr. Trump is so desperate for a "win" that all Kim Jong Un has to do is compliment Trump on his hair and Kim will get practically everything he wants. South Korea and Japan should be very, very worried!
8
Sadly, this is all about Trump trying to do something that Obama did not do while he was president. Obama was a real president; Trump is a just a late-night comedy joke.
Just in case anyone is checking Obama has 105 Million followers on Twitter, Trump has only 58 Million - Obama eats Trumps lunch again.
5
@Lew -- Well, yeah. President Obama tweets when he has something to say. Trump has diarrhea of the thumb, if that's possible.
4
Will Trump and Kim Jong-U.N. hold hands during their meeting since Trump declared he fell in love after receiving Kim Jong-un’s lovely letter. So very bizarre. And creepy.
2
Here is an article about the reasons Obama got a nobel peace prize. Trump doesn't make peace, he trashes people. His administration asked PM Abe to write to the Nobel people and submit Trump's name to the committee for consideration. He sent Trump a copy of the letter and of course Trump had to tell everyone about it. First of all, the identity of the person who nominates is not given out for 50 years. So I don't understand why Abe sent him a copy of that letter. Second, Abe, in an article I read, was very upset that Trump blabbed about it because he was only doing it to "stroke" Trump. And last, Trump is so desperate to have a prize because Obama had one. Even though he is the last person on the face of the earth that I would consider peaceful.
https://www.essence.com/celebrity/15-reasons-why-president-obama-won-nobel-peace-prize/#307515
2
@CB
Yes, Abe sent Trump a copy of the letter, but did he really send it to the Nobel Prize Committee? For all we know, he could've just sent it to Trump to placate him.
2
PLEASE raise our taxes and buy us some diplomats that know what they are doing!
6
They should sign a world shaking agreement with both pledging to immediately join weight watchers.
1
I guess I should care but this racist president and his Republican base, who voted him in, and whom I believe are equally racist, and cynical hypocritical congressional Republicans such as McConnell and Ryan, have me so angry I can’t listen to anything that dotard has to say. I’m only waiting for my 2020 mail in ballot which, stop everything, I’ll vote against trump up and down and return in person to the registrar in half an hour of receiving it.
2
more cinema from the prevaricator in chief....
"Fools or traitors "
In this case it's both and it's trump
5
Kim Jong Un doesn’t need to be a rocket scientist to take stock of the dynamics at work here. Donald Trump is a weak, failing president; a man openly desperate for something he can call ‘a win.’ He would sell his first born child to get one, complete with all of the pomp and circumstance our tax dollars can buy.
Separate Trump from his babysitters, like Mr. Pompeo, and Kim Jong Un Trump can readily cajole Trump into selling the family jewels — for just a few strokes on his bombastic, bloviating, yet ultimately fragile ego.
This is not “The Art of the Deal” - it’s “Trump the Schlemiel.”
2
Excellent article. When Trump declared that he and Mr. Kim are "best friends," that said it all. Trump and Pompeo are no match for the wily and seasoned Kim. Should Kim and Trump meet one on one, there is no telling what Trump will promise in order to appear as the great negotiator and winner that he thinks himself to be. Trump simply lacks the knowledge base and hard bargaining skills that is required of great diplomacy. Trump's weaknesses are all too transparent, waiting for Mr. Kim's clever manipulation of the dotard in question. Either way, Trump will make this look a "victory" for himself and the US, regardless of the outcome, which will inevitably come out in North Korea's favor as long as Trump is involved.
1
Finally, Trump the Dodger, goes to Viet Nam. Hope he visits the Hanoi Hilton and sees the horror Senator McCain and our other "non-hero's" were subjected to. Nobel Prize - indeed.
5
Kim has been carefully prepared and briefed fully by Putin's operatives in North Korea. There isn't a thing he doesn't know about trump that he needs to know and what is good for Kim is good for Putin. The president on the other hand has none of those things. Attempting to brief him is a waste of time. As far as a plan is concerned there is none other than his need for a Nobel prize. These things for the president are in some ways beside the point.
The point is that trump is there because Putin wants him there. The president is obviously beholden or afraid of Putin and will do everything he can to follow his instructions. Trump's just doing his best to follow orders.
But our
3
@Jenifer: Your point is plausible. Where do we find any information about the relationship between Putin and Kim?
@joe
They share a small border.
https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-north-korea-oil-exchange/4515243.html
1
Who could fail to realize that the US has zero leverage over Kim now that North Korea has nuclear weapons? Or that Trump and Kim agreed to meet solely to impress the deluded and easily impressed at home?
That Americans are not overwhelmingly howling in dismay about this meeting leaves the impression of a burnt-out people circling the drain. What happened to the once-proud American character and mind? What on earth?
4
It is hard to believe that Mr. Trump will do any better than any of his predecessors. The one thing I think he will try to do is end the war, a symbolic gesture that will do nothing to change the North Korean goal of uniting and dominating the South Koreans.
It is to be hoped that he will not give away the store while he pursues his Nobel Peace Prize.
2
All this posturing puts S. Korea in a very difficult position. N. Korea will remain an existential threat, while clueless "Team Trump", as you call it will announce great progress.
There is no "Team Trump", and the term is infantile. There is only Trump and his lies and ego.
I believe that S. Korea will make a deal with the North, since they can no longer rely on American support. They see what Trump has done with NATO, the EU, and trade deals. If every four years we have a change in political and foreign policy without living up to decades of agreements, then why not go with a country that has a "stable" regime?
1
@alanore
Can you offer even One reason why a country as rich as South Korea needs to 'rely on US support'? We have supported them for over 50 years is that not long enough? They Want to make a deal with the North. They are choosing to make a deal with the North. They are not making a deal because they fear US is going to stop 'supporting' them. They want to end the war and finally achieve peace. That's what our President wants too. Why do you think its ok to hate him so much that you even want him to fail at this? Here is the only answer you should have. It isnt.
1
@GregP
Yeah. It's called a defense alliance.
Now it's a fear alliance caused by the lack of concrete ideas from Trump. We had a defense deal with S. Korea after the war, 65 years ago.
Now "our" president makes it very shaky.
You are truly clueless if you think wealth is the only reason to go it alone. Germany, Japan and S. Korea are all non-nuclear and wealthy. If they didn't have powerful allies with nukes, then they probably would develop them.
Great world you're expounding upon!
There are your reasons!
1
First of all, Trump is no doubt a morally corrupt person. From too many of his actions/words, he's already proven that.
However, we must resist the temptation of calling everything he does as bad. With a huge help from humanitarian Moon, if a silly video, handshake, some smiles, and a lunch can reduce the tensions of mass killings, that's a very fine news for all of us - however short-lived that may be.
No one knows for sure how long this may last, but don't kill it before it even starts. Don't be that guy who's somewhere somehow got so hurt so that tries to drag down those hopeful minds who have the courage to stand up for peace. We all should be rooting for peace, in whatever shape or whomever negotiates it.
And we don't have to keep the score and analyze the nit bits of who's got more points or who won or lost. Let's say NK scored 10 points and we scored 9 - that's a gain of 19 for the world peace and that's totally fine.
We don't have to always insist on maintaining the upper hand on everything. That only shows to the world our true insecurity in ourselves – like little children always demanding more than their peers.
Treat the peers as equals and come up with a fair deal. To do so, sometimes you give without demanding anything in return, and hope the other side will learn to be as generous and courteous as you. Peace is more important than a broken deal due to always insisting on the upper hand.
7
@BLOG joekimgroup.com
Trump is not insisting on the upper hand, more like insisting on no hand. We will see, I suppose.
Did you see what happened today after Trump cancelled the nuclear treaty with Putin? Putin just published a list of US targets that he says he can hit in 5 minutes with his new supersonic nuclear missiles. Way to go, Trump.
Let's just wait some more and see what else will happen, right?
4
@BLOG joekimgroup.com- Well, Trump has already done the 'giving without demanding anything' part, in their first meeting. So how much has North Korea learned about being generous and courteous? Continuing to build up their nuclear and missile stockpile while the US backs away from long-standing agreements with South Korea doesn't seem to me like something "reducing the tensions of mass killings". I rather suspect the South Koreans, the ones most at risk, are feeling less tense these days.
1
@mmwhite
For several thousand years, people deliberately fought wars. Why not break away from that pattern and strive for a peaceful permanent solution? We gave War a chance – for several thousand years – and it continues to fail us. Why not give Peace a chance – for the next several thousand years?
1
My stomach and jaw seize up every time I think of The Con Don running around the world pretending to speak for me.
He must be stopped right now. Before he and his brethren can recruit Kim to help start WW3.
4
Mr. Kim, as the third ruler of North Korea since his grandfather created the regime takes the long view. He can afford to. We're starting to gear up for next year's elections, with all the internal focus that will distract from paying attention to international affairs. Whether he'll be dealing with Trump again come January 20, 2021 or someone else altogether is of no consequence to him. Barring a terminal illness or some other circumstance that would end Mr. Kim's life prematurely, he will be there for the duration. That's the one sobering constant we should be very mindful of.
2
These are very dangerous times. No one knows what Donald Trump will say or do, or how it will be interpreted.
And the vibe is that Secretary Pompeo is considering wars with Venezuela and Iran for their proven commercially recoverable oil reserves.
It's estimated Venezuela has 362 years, and Iran 109 for oil reserves. What is happening in U.S. foreign policy moves is perhaps Orwellian.
1
Chances are that Trump will give away to North Korea much more than North Korea will yield to the US. That is what happened at their last meeting.
The result is that North Korea will have more lee way to secretly build up their nuclear arsenal without any oversight from the international community, including the US.
It's analogous to what Trump did with Russia. By cancelling the nuclear treaty we had with Russia, Putin is now free to build up his nuclear arsenal. Putin just announced a list of targets in the US that he could hit with ultrasonic weapons that he said could hit US targets on his list in 5 minutes.
Russia shares a border with North Korea. It is to their mutual benefit to maintain an alliance of nuclear power in that area to ward off any US intervention and ready the way for Putin to further expand the Russian empire in that region and beyond. The Cold War is not only back on in full blast, but we have a rising nuclear power now in North Korea.
1
@Observing
Tell me please what did the US give to NK in the last meeting? We gave them 'much more' so tell me what did we give them? Recognition? What exactly? As far as the treaty with Russia, our Allies are on board with withdrawing from the Treaty. They are the ones at risk from these intermediate weapons the Treaty addresses. If they are on board with withdrawing from it, how can it be in Putin's favor we are doing so? You live in a world defined by hate of a single person and it warps all your views.
@GregP
We agreed to discontinue joint military exercises with South Korea. These exercises have been crucial in maintaining military readiness in that are of the Pacific in the event that North Korea launches an attack. This was a gigantic concession.
For a while there was a plan to withdraw our troops from South Korea until lately, but you can be sure this is what Kim will be pushing fro Trump to do. He wouldn't be pushing too hard, since Trump has been complaining that South Korea wasn't paying the US enough money to keep our troops there. Trump is playing right into Kim's hands, like he did with Putin when he cancelled the Russia nuclear treaty, thus allowing Putin to announce today a list of US targets that could be hit in 5 minutes with new supersonic nuclear missiles that Putin has been building.
In exchange, North Korea agreed to a nebulous sentence to "working toward" denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Trump and the rest of the US delegation did not specify exactly how that was going to be done or verified. In fact, subsequently , there have been multiple reports, including from intelligence officials, that North Korea has bulit structures meant to conceal their continuance of building nuclear weapons. Experts say that Kim Jong Un has not dismantled any nuclear weapons but has likely built five to nine new nuclear weapons.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-korea/north-korea-still-making-nukes-trump-admin-now-taking-much-n907651
1
Mr. Eberstadt's comments parrot the U.S. post WWII rationale justifying the permanent entrenchment of U.S. hegemonic ambitions in Asia. Eberstadt simply declares that North Korea will never abandon its nuclear program nor its ambition to dominate the entire Korean peninsula - the same mantra U.S. Pax Americanists have been murmuring for 70 years to justify permanent control of military forces south of the DMZ and a strategic foothold in mainland Asia. Never mind that the president of South Korea and the majority of his countrymen and women disagree and are actively promoting reconciliation with the North only to be blocked by a U.S. sanctions regime. Mr. Eberstadt lays bare the arrogance of the long and tragic history of U.S. interventionism in Korea and its utter disregard for the rights of the Korean people to self-determination. However, South Korea's candlelight revolution and North Korea's insistence on a Korean peninsula freed of the threat of nuclear disaster will ultimately turn the tide.
@GRL Your statement is false: Never mind that the president of South Korea and the majority of his countrymen and women disagree and are actively promoting reconciliation with the North only to be blocked by a U.S. sanctions regime.
North Korea seeks reconciliation with South Korea whether by stick or carrot.
1
@John What's your point? What is false about my statement? Koreans want to re-open the Kaesong Industrial Complex but are being blocked by U.S. economic sanctions against the North. Just one example.
This article is an excellent and persuasive analysis of what is going to happen in Hanoi. If only Trump would read (and understand) it.
What could possibly go wrong? A naive and uninformed Trump seeking to distract the media and the American public from all of his legal problems and corruption investigations walks into a meeting with a well-prepared and devious foe.
I bet that Trump has read nothing on the key issues that have been provided to him by our intelligence agencies. Instead, he will walk in with his self-delusions fully on display and will be played like a sap by the cunning North Koreans. Tump will likely give Kim an end of the war declaration and a reduction in sanctions. In return he will get a "commitment" to stop testing and more missile launches (which are no longer needed by the North and have been stopped already), and a promise for more talks on denuclearization. Trump will then declare a victory due only to his negotiating skills and claim no one could have done it but him.
Kim will laugh all the way home on his long train ride.
4
"He has a strategy and the Americans do not." This sentence sums up the entire foreign (and to a large extent the domestic) policy of the US under Trump and is the reason why he and the US have become the world's laughingstock. Trump has consistently confused having a strategy with getting his way (Mexican wall anyone?) since he started as a "businessman" using daddy's money.
5
KJU already won. DJT has legitimized him and his regime by holding two summits with him. None of his tyrannical, sinister, nefarious activities have ceased AND he's continued enrichment to the point where DNI Coates says NK now has as many as six more nuclear weapons. KJU has already won!
4
All Kim has to do is make nice to Trump. Stroke Trump's ego and he rolls over like a puppy, wagging his tail and gushing with appreciation at being liked by someone, anyone. Trump is not capable of representing the interests of the United States. He is really not capable of much of anything, and I fully expect Kim to get the better of him again (and again, and again and again...).
12
Reading this article and the comments, it would appear the US should not pursue peace with.North Korea.
Democrats are against it.
War is good.
Talks are bad.
Democrats need help for their TDS.
2
So Trump is going to Vietnam, missed it on the first go around, bone spurs, remember. It seems like some kind of joke, Vietnam, a place Americans would like to forget, and a draft dodging President when the Vietnam War was in full swing. Crazy!
1
It is absolutely sickening to hear an American president gushing about his love affair with a murderous dictator who starves his people, tortures and kills thousands in his gulags and executes members of his own family with flame throwers and anti-aircraft guns. Kim got to keep his nuclear arms after being accorded international recognition in his first summit with Trump. He will continue to keep his nukes after this second summit. Trump will get another photo op, which he will use to convince his not-so-bright base that he has achieved world peace and deserves a Nobel prize. But most Americans will see through it, the rest of the world will not believe him and the Nobel committee will politely inform him that he is not in the running.
2
Trump cares only for what will glorify him in the next news cycle and feed his monstrous need for attention. He is continues to sell out the US and S Korea to gratify his own ego. We have never had a president so amoral
1
Another photo op, another chance to declare 'victory', another campaign ad, and another stop on the TrumpWorld march toward that Nobel Peace Prize. Hey, Obama's got one so Trump MUST get one, one way or the other.
3
Really? The grandson of a German barber and son a Scottish Au Par will be a Nobel Laureate? Bravo 45th. MAGA.
But it is so much easier and more comforting to declare victory, and then retreat, as Trump has done with so many things.
And his base buys into it.
It's funny. He's the world's biggest liar ("My lies are HUGE! I have the biggest, most beautiful lies EVER!"). His success at lying to his base proves it. But what really puts him at the pinnacle of the World Champion of Liars is the fact that he (successfully) lies to himself.
Sadly, the country is going to inherit the dangerous outcomes of his naivete. Some future president is going to be faced with a North Korea with a fully functional arsenal of enough weapons that they can demand any concessions they wish. We will be unable to stop them all, and if just one hits only a small, northern U.S. city, or perhaps even falls short into Canada, the political and economic outcome would be devastating.
And, I imagine, if that day should come, Trump would immediately tweet that if he were still president, it wouldn't have happened at all (because he and Kim Jong-un love each other so very much). The only safe course is clearly to elect Trump President for Life.
At this week's meeting, Trump likely will once again be the victim of Jong-Un upmanship.
1
Trump will give away the store and then demand he gets a Nobel. We all (at least the rational among us) that trump is a braggart fool. This is the reason New Yorkers overwhelmingly rejected him, we’ve been subjected to his blathering for decades thanks to the media that thought he was so amusing. I’m talking about you Howard Stern and the NYT.
1
Another Trump joke, except like everything else about him it is not funny.
Trump is again playing footsie and kissing up to the types of world figure he admires most - dictator, despot, ruler, czar - the type trump craves to be - while he continues to alienate the decent world leaders who used to be our allies.
And trump will be one of them if he is not stopped - by whatever means necessary. Preferably by forcing him to resign, or by arresting him for treason. Or, if the country survives that long, by ousting him at the next election. Otherwise by any means necessary. The sooner the better.
1
Donald Trump declared on Monday morning that he expects a “very tremendous summit” later this week with Kim Jong-un.
It's usually a bad sign when the North Korean leader speaks better English than the American leader.
14
Does anybody know what type of brutal oppression goes on in North Korea? Does anyone care? Trump certainly doesn't. He believes his path to a Nobel Peace Prize leads through Pyongyang. And just as everything else he does is all about him, this second summit, solicited by a Republican President (think what Republicans would have to say if a Democratic President urged Kim Jong Un to meet at all let alone for a second time), is all about Trump. The fact that the North Koreans know precisely what Trump wants from this summit gives them all the leverage.
4
Putting the North Korean quandry into the context of just Kim Jong Un vs Trump is myopic and trite.
There have been missteps and escalations for decades, and the previous effort at containing North Korea's nuclear program: the 1994 Agreed Framework -- collapsed during GW Bush's administration amid rising diplomatic escalations & accusations.
North Korea is a geopolitical bad actor. But there are factors outside the United States that does not make this merely a US/NK negotiation.
China -- wants the NK regime to survive
Russia -- has motive to covertly aid NK's nuclear and missile program.
South Korea -- understandbly doesn't want the penninsula to escalate into a full blown, disastrous conflagration.
2
China has been the Korean dynasty's protector for over a thousand years. Every time there was an internal dispute, China stationed troops in Seoul to mediate and take side. There has to do with geographic, cultural, historical, and country's power.
United States came into the Korean conflict from the Korean war to stop communism's expansion, but U.S. is too far and too unconnected to Korea, and not a natural partner to solve this North-South divide.
Time to go back to square one, and throw this whole mess into China's and Korean hands.
I know this is hard to swallow for the "globalists", "America Super Power" elites, but it is futile to get involved and solved the problem of North Korea. With mutual defense treaties with South Korea and Japan, it will only lead to nuclear war in a direct confrontation.
and for what benefits to U.S.?
Nicholas Eberstadt and others like him write articles like this one that make them seem to be all-knowing geniuses. But they aren't. They don't know anymore about what Kim Jong Un is thinking than I do.
Experts always pretend that they know more than they do. But their pontifications are silly. History shows how far off the mark experts are. I remember similar articles about the Soviet Union, and how smart its leaders were. Until suddenly it collapsed and disappeared.
Bargainers are better than experts. They have to be -- unlike experts, bargainers have skin in the game. Donald Trump may be a dotard to some, but he is a lot smarter than that. He's a clever bargainer, and knows what he wants and how to get there. He isn't always successful -- no one is. But his track record is good.
Kim Jong Un needs to make a choice. He can keep his nuclear weapons, and miss out on economic growth. Or he can give them up and move to a market economy. His choice. He needs to make it.
Some people like Nicholas Eberstadt say that they know what Kim Jong Un will choose. He will never give up his nuclear weapons, they say. We know that. I ask, how do you know? No one knows what he is going to do. To find out, you have to make a move, and then see what happens. Exactly like Donald Trump is doing.
5
@John Smithson
I like your optimism, but doubt that trump has our interests in mind when he sets out to make his bargain with the familicide running North Korea. trump will make his move, (when you're a star, they let you do it), but has no clue how to get what he wants at the is level of diplomacy.
6
@John Smithson Completely disagree with you. Eberstadt is a North Korean expert; Trump is a carnival barker and Kim is smarter than Trump. And your assertion that Trump is a clever bargainer with a track record that is good has zero evidence. Make no mistake with Trump, Kim Jong Un will keep his nuclear weapons and move to a market economy. He will work to convince Trump he is going to denuclearize and then proceed to rapidly amp up his nuclear stockpile. Just like last time.
4
@John Smithson
do you have any idea the kind of person KJU is?
He is a vicious murderous dictator who starves millions and tortures people in gulags. Trump can't bargain his way out of a paper bag. Kim knows it and knows what a fool trump is.
2
I don't agree. Trump goes to N. Korea for a nuclear deal, but exits the one with Russia. He's going to N. Korea to win the Nobel prize for peace. Pure ego. Pure laughable.
12
Cadet VeryGoodBrain is trying to lay down a smokescreen for Faux Noise to use to distract low-info voters from Mueller and Cohen.
4
Kim's motivation to get what he wants for North Korea and the Korean peninsula is deep and abiding. He has created his plan based on those deep motives, and as ugly as some of the outcomes have been, he has nourished his dream cunningly over a long period. In other words, he is far more invested personally in getting what he wants than Trump is in getting what Trump wants. What does Trump want? Some accolades? A Peace Prize? Does he really care much about the Korean people or really worry much about war? Trump simply does not care as much as Kim. In some situations, that could be an advantage (like negotiating the price of a car with a dealer who wants to sell it to more than you want to buy it) But in the current Korea situation, I think it's a disadvantage, since Trump hasn't put years of thought and analysis into the situation as Kim has.
11
@Syliva You nailed it.
Two of the most despicable humans alive today meet to discuss the safety and security of the planet. What could go wrong?
19
Trump will win. He'll tell us so himself.
2
One reads that Kim Jong-un is traveling in an armored train across China to Hanoi. If he is a fan of World War I armored trains, his must be equipped with canons, heavy machine guns, and modern laser-guided anti-crime missiles.
Trump should present a similar, or even greater, show of strength by flying to Hanoi in a B-52 bomber, accompanied by long-range jet interceptors and Secret Service disembarking from helicopters.
I think Kim Jong Un has played Trump like a master poker player fleecing a mark. Kim Jong Un is transforming from being an international pariah to being on the world stage with the POTUS. I have yet to see any love letters from the NK leader to the POTUS.
7
Nobel Peace Prize doesn't seem likely, but certainly Mr. Trump is a front runner for the Neville Chamberlain Appeasement Award.
14
@smartypants
No Mr. Obama earned that with his wonderful iteration of Strategic Patience. At least Trump is trying.
Trump will make any deal to make it look good on the surface, because he wants the Nobel because President Obama received one.
3
The result will be the same as last time.
Trump will get a photo opp.
Nothing more.
59
Trump will lose and declare a great victory. That is the only thing he knows how to do.
2
The thought of a one-on-one meeting between Trump and Kim Jung Un is terrifying. Kim Jung Un knows that flattery will get him what he wants. Trump will sell us out when promised that a deal with N. Korea will gain him the Nobel.
2
45 is way over his head, and unprepared. His goal is a faux Nobel for "peace" and will concede anything to get it. It is 100% all about him, all the time. We'll be lucky to survive until the end of his term.
7
Correction to your sub-title about the Trump - Kim Jong-un meeting this week: One wants to make the world safe for North Korea, while the other just wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize.
5
No matter what the real outcome will be , Trump will claim yuuuuge victory . We've learnt it, so far. Whatever he does, he does for himself, and in 90% of cases it is only optics, short-term illusions, and the bill which will US have to pay one way or another is growing.
3
And the winner is...Kim Jong-un!
1
The party of perpetual war and unconditional surrender by everyone else states its case.
A masterful analysis by Mr. Eberstadt: we should remember that analyses like these are what previous US presidents and theater commanders received, were briefed upon, and actually read.
They have been supplanted by cartoons and talking points by direction of the buffoon in the Oval Office.
North Korea exists today because “the failure of Secretary of State Dean Acheson in a routine speech to include non-Communist South Korea in America’s Asian 'defense perimeter'" encouraged Stalin to turn the Korean Communists loose and because Truman and MacArthur, each in his own way, fumbled the UN response.
As Mr. Eberstadt argues, no doubt exists that the disciplined Kim will trounce Trump and that an independent, economically-free South Korea will cease to exist within a decade.
When that happens, the blood and violence will make the 1975 fall of Saigon seem like a tea party.
2
Was there ever a declared "state of War" between the US and North Korea?
I believe not. The War was between North Korea and South Korea. Any ending of this state of War must be between them.
Another case of Trump creating a "Straw Man" that "only he" can slay.
2
Sadly, there will not be one winner because there is already one winner: Kim Jong un. President Trump will miss his coveted Nobel prize, and Kim will gain a global embrace with legitimacy as a nuclear power without giving up much of anything. Trump will declare victory to mask another huge diplomatic defeat.
4
Trump is looking for another destination hotel. Kim is looking to govern the Peninsula. Win, win.
1
When leaders of diametrically opposed counties talk it's always a good thing. It's not about one side winning and the other losing, it's about defusing a lethal situation for both.
President Trump and China have put tremendous economic pressure upon Kim Jong-un, forcing him to the negotiating table. Understand that North Korea is no real threat to the United States. They might have a few rockets, if they're lucky, which could reach our continent, but that would definitely lead to their annihilation.
There is nothing for Trump to lose at the table. Former President Obama made it clear to Trump that North Korea was the most urgent foreign policy problem that he'd face; a problem that Obama made no attempt to not solve in eight years in office.
It's unrealistic to think that North Korea will give up all of their defenses. Nuclear capability once developed can be put on ice but never eradicated. Just as important as the warhead is the delivery system. NK has launched rockets over Japan and demonstrated that there's the possibility they could reach the United States, but their guidance systems for accuracy hasn't been demonstrated. Failure to launch test rockets and hone their accuracy renders nuclear warheads ineffective.
Giving NK the chance to join the real world economy and better the lives of its people without threatening its leadership is the road Trump must lead Kim down.
2
The goal is for the people of Korea's respective countries to solve their own problems and determine what they want and what is in their best interests. That would include a non-nuclear Korean peninsula free of nuclear weapons AND foreign military bases. In other words, get the North Koreans to give up their nuclear weapons in exchange for us leaving South Korea, lifting economic sanctions and end nuclear armed flights near their country. I get the impression Kim would give up his nuclear weapons provided he has strong assurances and a signed peace treaty from us that we would not unilaterally attempt regime change like we have done in over a dozen countries and just recently in Iraq, Libya and currently in Syria and now what appears to be our meddling in Venezuela. I wouldn't give up my nukes if I was Kim given our track record.
It is correct that the way to apply "maixmum pressure" to NK is by getting China to participate in it.
However, we are already using whatever leverage we have with China to pursue a new trade arrangment.
And the premature declaration that NK was no longer a threat gave China and everyone else an excuse to ease restrictions on NK. After all, how could the US ask for "ruthless suffocation" on a country that Trump told us was A-Ok by him?
I know the majority of the readers loathe Trump (as does the author), but give the man the credit, when the credit is due:
Indisputable fact #1: No missiles over Japan or underground nuclear testing in the past year.
Indisputable fact #2: Thanks to diplomatic efforts of Trump administration, N.Korea is enduring the harshest economic sanctions ever (yes, much harsher than under Obama administration), that put a huge break on the nuclear program, because regime has no spare cash.
Trump knows that Nobel committee will not give him a Nobel prize, so being nominated is the most he can get. He is going to make sure that whatever agreement is reached, it is in the best interest of United States (not the best interest of the world), otherwise his "America First" image will suffer terribly.
Therefore, the Americans readers should relax and not fret about Trump bowing to Kim - under this administration, America will not bow to foreign countries, unlike under previous administration.
3
No credit is due.
There are not harshest economic sanctions ever: it's an open secret that Russia, China and others are no longer participating fully in the sanctions, and have not been every since Trump declared victory after his last meeting with Kim. Once the US announced NK had agreed to denuclearize, the ability of the US (and the interest, frankly) to argue for sanctions went away.
There are no underground tests of nuclear bombs, but not because of diplomacy, but because once working models are perfected, no testing need take place. The US, Russia, China, UK and France haven't tested since 1996.
Trump did indeed bow to Kim, by cancelling joint exercises and declaring Kim willing to denuclearize.
Lastly, it's sad to see someone insist that Trump is going to strike a good deal, because otherwise he'd look bad. We've saw after the last summit, and see constantly in other areanas, that Trump can't strike a deal at all, much less a good one, and that Trump simply lies about the outcome. And you show people buy it, still.
9
"There’ll Be One Winner". Of course no matter what that person won't be Trump. He could have all the missiles removed from Russia and N. Korea and the media would say it was just because he colluded with them.
1
@Jay
I've seen many statements over time in this paper that give Trump credit, or that show both the positive and negative aspects of what he's done. For example, the NYT has clearly acknowledged that the recent economic growth is due in part to the tax cuts. I wish Trump supporters would take him off the pedestal and recognize him as a leader with both strengths and weaknesses. Too many Trump supporters say things like "well, this might look bad, but it's really part of his plan. Trump is so clever. He knows what he's doing, but looking like he doesn't is his deliberate strategy. The Lord works in mysterious ways." I wish these people would listen to themselves.
1
Trumps always tries to capture the headlines whenever there is a big story coming out about his criminal enterprise. Cohen’s houses gets raided, he started a trade war. Trump Foundation closed for fraudulent practices, he shut the government down. The Kim meeting was most predictable, given the Cohen Congressional testimony, the very same week. That Trumps handler Putin, set up the meeting with Kim , makes it all the more tractable.
9
Is there a reason why the views of somebody working for the right-wing American Enterprise Institute must be printed in The New York Times? Eberstadt is wringing his hands about North Korea, but as a Washington think tank guy he ought to know this: So long as Donald Trump does whatever the (Con)Federalist Society tells him to do regarding judicial appointments, Republicans apparently don't give a damn what else he does.
2
If there's to be only one winner - it's unlikely it will be America. Trump will claim victory regardless of outcome - North Korea may walk away with some concessions but their nuclear arsenal will remain largely intact.
This President is desperate for glory; why else lobby for a Nobel or a southern edifice, or claim a trade victory (Pyrrhic at best) over China and nurture a warming relationship with a dangerous and arch foe of the USA?
Trump might argue that what is good for Trump is good for America (mirroring General Motor's overblown mid 20th century attitude about it's own importance) but it's not.
While Trump preens Mussolini like at his papered rally's to rehearsed applause - he should remember where, when and how Mussolini's tenure ended.
2
The only winner here has already been revealed: it’s Kim. The rest of the world is the loser, and that includes Trump, first and foremost. At least REagan believed in “trust, but verify.” Trump’s motto is : Read my billboard.
1
Meeting in Hanoi. There are so many angles to this thing, other people have commented well. But what also strikes me is, how many people died or had lives destroyed by the Vietnam War? We have plenty of Vets still living among us. We know how our government lied to them and to the public. The irony of these two meeting there makes this more nauseating than Trump’s usual theater. The US never seems to learn.
4
Kim will play trump like a cheap violin.
Trump will come back claiming victory.
Kim will be laughing up his sleeve.
Trump will play to his base using Fox News as his trumpet.
A Rinse and Repeat of the last 'summit'.
4
Kim Jong-un must be licking his chops at the thought of playing Donald for a fool again. What will Donald give up this time for a vaguely worded, meaningless statement by North Korea?
4
The fact that Trump is even meeting with Un is a win for NK. It is a loss of face for America and for DJT, although he is too dense to understand that fact.
You do not walk into meetings like this with no agenda and declaring your love for your adversary.
Stupid, arrogant, and wrong.
9
@Lock Him Up
Doubly alarming is that he is meeting Un in Vietnam, the communist country to which we lost the war. Great optics for NK!
@Lock Him Up,
With some Asian societies and nations, the surname comes first thus Kim is Kim Jong-un's surname. His first name is Jong-un. Koreans do not have middle names.
Unconditional control of the Korean peninsula under the Kim family's Kim Jong-un? "National concord and unity"? Lord save us. May our unfit and historically ignorant president not give the farm to Kim in exchange for the slim to no possibility of the 2019 Nobel Prize. The Singapore Summit was Trump playing softball. This Hanoi Summit, in the country which won the Vietnam War and is now under Communist rule, will be Kim playing hardball with our doctard-in-chief. Fake hopes, fake choices, fake denuclearization, Peace in our time"? Woe is us.
2
I can't believe that even Trump is so dumb as to think he will actually achieve anything. Kim has nothing if he gives up his weapons, it is not gonna happen. For Trump to think that he might achieve de-nuclearisation shows how simple and ignorant he is.
6
I would be happy to avoid a nuclear war.
Trump is an idiot who has no capacity to negotiate his way out of a wet paper bag let alone a nuclear agreement with anybody. Kim is single minded and wants to hang on to power in NK. Kim will win.
The complete lack of any plan on the part of Trump and his Secretary of State will put the U.S. further behind. Having a plan is better than no plan at all.
This is another failure even before it has begun; just like the U.S. and Iran. Backing out of the agreement with Iran was to satisfy Trumps masters in Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Trump is the biggest international failure in modern times. The sooner the House begins impeachment the better it will be for the U.S. and the international community.
19
"Maybe or maybe not this week in Hanoi, but certainly at a time and place of Mr. Kim’s choosing."
Peace arrangements for the Asian Continent should've occurred in Hanoi, 50 years ago. Instead, those that today insist on "...the correct position overall is for the United States to resume a policy of maximum pressure worthy of the name.', wouldn't do so when that opportunity presented. Instead, again, they then were so adamant against 'pressure' they refused to fulfill their duties as US citizens. As of today, they still glorify their cowardice of those days. They, were wrong then; they, are wrong now.
It's hard to imagine anyone I could feel less comfortable with representing the U.S. at this summit. Incompetence seems to be the hallmark of this administration. Worst of all, the first NK summit ably demonstrated that for all who are willing to see.
7
I suspect that Mr. Eberstadt has already written his commentary on the outcome of this latest summit. It's that predictable.
Trump will declare victory.
Kim will declare victory.
Trump will make concessions.
Kim will do no such thing.
Nothing - repeat, nothing - will be verifiable.
Trump will declare that he should win the Nobel Peace Prize.
Loser.
Sad.
18
Kim has already won. He's gained an enormous PR victory that has weakened the worldwide sanctions against NK and has transformed him from a world pariah to a world leader.
12
As stated, "And rational actors do not bargain away their core interests; only fools or traitors do."
In the last meeting, Trump suspended joint Korean-US military exercises. That made the Chinese happy and Pyongyang delighted. The US got nothing tangible in return yet Trump returned bragging that North Korea is no longer a threat. So is Trump a fool or a traitor? The obvious answer is "both". Now, the North will have another go at the incompetent-in- chief who has surrounded himself with a "C" team- The A team was never there and the B team has mostly been dismissed or quit. It's likely they'll declare and end to the Korean war and the North Koreans will say,"Hey, come on! The war is over, lift the sactions". Unfortunately Trump will probably capitulate and then ask for his Nobel Peace Prize.
4
I've pointed this out before and will again. Donald Trump is nothing more than a glorified salesman, trading on his name and the empire his father left him. All he cars about is "winning" at deal-making. The substance of the deals doesn't really matter - he just wants to feed his ego.
There is a scary level of conflation going on inside Trump's head. Somehow, negotiating with the head of a totalitarian state over nuclear weapons is no different than signing a deal to build a 4-star hotel or a world-class golf course. How hard could it be?
Trump doesn't care about the details. So he's not versed at all in the roots of the Korean conflict, or why there is still an armistice and no peace treaty after 65 1/2 years. When you lack a sense of history, everything seems very black-and-white. Sign a peace treaty, "deal won!" Maybe a Nobel Prize is in the offing.
Recall the first round of trade/tariff talks with China, where all that was agreed upon was to postpone talks until next month. When Trump was asked about this agreement, he said, "It's an incredible deal. It might be the greatest deal ever!"
Sorry, Trump fans. I don't want a salesman running my country. And I'm amazed that former Army officer Pompeo and John "Cold War" Bolton actually go along with this nonsense...
10
If all you expect is “The Apprentice” like boardroom façade, you won’t be disappointed.
3
Punkd is the word I use in describing the trump-Kim meeting.
3
Trump's track record is poor at best. He has learned nothing of foreign affairs in his last two years. He will get what he has put in...nothing!
3
Sub-headline corrected:
One wants to make himself safe from Bob Mueller, while the other wants to make the world safe for North Korea.
We don't know what will come out of his meeting with Kim, but we do know that whatever Trump decides it will be in service of his own survival, not ours.
3
Trump wins either way.
In his mind, anyway.
2
Zilch. t'will be nothing more than another expensive photo op, with America losing ground. This man doesn't do deals, he's only capable of self-promotion.
3
We know a couple of things going in. Kim is way smarter than Trump and even if he gives away the farm, Trump will proclaim a win. They will probably declare an end to the Korean War which was last fought in 1953 and Trump will start whining about not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. After all, Obama got one.
4
In Trump’s myopic, selfish view, there’s always only one winner in each of his negotiations.
It’s not the country, it’s not the world, it’s not even him - it’s his inflated ego.
1
I'm sorry to say that I think one simply wants a Nobel Peace prize!
2
I like my plan better. South Korea develops it's own ballistic missile program and nuclear deterrent. Let the Chinese and Russians stew on that a little.
1
South Korea is already a merchant of nuclear power plants to the world.
1
It is amazing that this meeting takes place in Hanoi. Within living memory millions of the populace were killed in Vietnam; America lost a war with 55,000 killed and 100 of thousands lost limbs and health, with mental problems and drug addiction as a follow-on.
Trump is now saying that North Korea should emulate Vietnam, as a 'free market' economy to enjoy the same benefits that Vietnam has with relations with the US.
I can't get my head round who won or lost the Vietnam War?
34
>>> "I can't get my head round who won or lost the Vietnam War?"
There is absolutely no question: The U.S. lost.
Of course, 2 million Vietnamese civilians on both sides died, along with about 1million North Vietnamese and Viet Cong fighters and between 200,000 and 250,000 South Vietnamese soldiers. So, it was an expensive victory.
4
@Douglas
As Lincoln taught the world, when one is defending the homeland from extinction, cost-benefit analysis is a fool's game.
3
@Rod Saunders
The US won almost every battle, but we did 'lose' the war. Don't really think that is in dispute with historians. When you have to evacuate your embassy staff by helicopter as enemy forces overrun it, you have lost the war.
10
There will be no "winner". The Con Don wants to be a Kim-type dictator. He wants to bring Kim into the International Mafia 0.01% Robber Baron/Radical religion Good Old Boys cabal long enough to control him. Once he's been used as much as possible he is dust.
Nobody wins in the Robber Baron attempt to create their evil empire. Nobody.
2
Neither this article nor most of the comments even mention that (i) there have been no more nuclear tests or missile launches for over one year, (ii) the hostages were released, (iii) remains of fallen American servicemen are being returned, (iv) the sanctions are still in place. This more progress than made in all the years 1953 - 2016. However, it seems that the Trump hating naysayers would rather have us get into a shooting war than see Trump's foreign policy succeed.
1
@Christopher Arend You fail to understand that the tests have achieved what Kim JongUn sought to achieve, as well as the release of those "hostages". Kim's efforts have brought him and the DPRK closer to their goals rather than closer to resolving any differences between them and the ROK and the US.
The sanctions have a slow and dubious path, yet now Kim JongUn's plans and agenda are moving forward. As Mr. Eberstadt pointed out, recent events have been the results of Kim JongUn's efforts rather than the result of any meaningful effort on the part of the current government to resolve any long standing problems.
It is not enough to criticize people as being mere "naysayers" when there has been no real progress in the DPRK's stance as of yet.
3
@Christopher Arend
Kim says that the testing phase is over, and I think that's the one truth we've been told. So now he's on to the "make more missiles, using this technology" phase. In what way is that a win for the US?
A few hostages were released, and I'm glad for them, but that is basically a cost-free move for N.Korea. Gives them some beneficial PR plus they save on porridge, so call that a win for the north.
Remains returned? Again, basically a freebie for the north, and no increase in safety for us.
The sanctions still in place. (For now, till POTUS trades them for a shot at the Peace Prize--at no cost to N.Korea, who'll laugh themselves silly.)
So you call this progress?
3
Who was the winner when the policy was "Strategic Patience"?
I know many dislike this President but when it is an issue this large it is ok to hope he succeeds. We do have our hostages back and some of our fallen, a stop to testing and no missile launches in some time. Those are all wins for this President, why shouldn't Kim be able to have something to say is a win for him? We don't want war with NK but will have one if these talks fail. NyTimes has a responsibility to at least not sabotage the effort.
6
@GregP: "NyTimes has a responsibility to at least not sabotage the effort." What "effort" is that?
First of all, this is not the product of the NYTimes editorial staff. It's a guest op-ed, written by an employee of the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank and source of several Trump staffers.
Second, as pointed out in the op-ed, North Korea has itself stated that it does not need to continue testing because its weapons have already been proven out. They've entered the production phase for their weapons, a fact confirmed by many reports of new missile bases and nuclear refinement facilities in North Korea. The so-called "win" of stopped testing is something that Kim would have done regardless of Trump's mishandling of the crisis.
The key worry now is that Trump will make concessions that will inexorably lead to the removal of US forces from South Korea and the eventual forced annexation of South Korea by the North.
Trump has no plan and whatever "effort" he's making now is only intended to achieve a public relations victory. The danger here is that he will help destroy a democratic ally of the US. There's no grand Trumpian plan to "sabotage."
14
@GregP
Sorry to disappoint, but those are not "wins", they are not even base hits! Next you will be describing the "handshake" and the love letters as wins. I know you are desperate but the four things you list are insignificant compared to what trump gave away.
AND WHERE DID YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WE WILL HAVE NUCLEAR WAR IF THESE TALKS FAIL? That is trump poppycock directly from the keyboard of the bully who created the stink to start with. I'm sure you can remember that part of the story. Was that a win too?
7
@Lew
Nonsense. NK stopped testing because the mountain they were using was going to collapse if they continued and because of having 3 Aircraft Carrier Strike Groups off their shore. Nothing has been proven about their weapons they just had a real reason to believe they would be attacked if they tested again, and they very likely would have.
1
One winner indeed. And since we all know in advance who that will be, the coverage in the American press is mostly redundant. The donald rolls over and offers his throat again.
3
@Neal The donald rolls over and offers OUR throat again.
1
Trump is looking for the Nobel Peace Prize, which is beyond the realm of possibility. The serious question remains as to what he will be offering in order for Kim to make a statement that Trump wants the Nobel committee to believe.
3
The deal between this corrupt president and his corrupt buddy Kim of North Korea: Do whatever you want to develop nuclear weapons, just don't test and threaten the United States on my watch while I can appear to be a peace maker and qualify for a Nobel Prize. It's all smoke and mirrors.
2
How important will this be? Kim plays the 'long game". The President plays the headline...
3
Trump and Kim are both zero-sum thinkers. Neither has any concept of mutual benefit, or "win-win." The difference is that Trump, when faced with an actual struggle against a formidable foe, is perfectly happy to settle for the appearance of having won. The result is that Kim, who has never had that kind of margin, has been leading Trump by the nose, and I see no reason to expect that to change.
2
The fact that this meeting is occurring when NK has done nothing means that Kim has already won. The only thing now is to see how bad the "point spread" will be.
3
Our U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam is a seasoned, career officer with the Dept. of State- and not a wealthy campaign donor. He has extensive diplomatic experience with Japan, China, Russia and North Korea. I hope he will be able to add a steady voice of reason for what could potentially be a huge sellout for the United States and the region should Trump try to do this on his own.
2
Trump will be looking to end the Korean War as his way to a Nobel Peace Prize and re-election. This gathering in Hanoi is all about making him look good, no political plan.
Watching Korea, over time, negate its promises in such an agreement is all but guaranteed, but Trump will not care. He needs to get his short term false vision of success that long-term will take us and S. Korea much closer to war.
It is China that pulls North Korea's strings and with Trump imposing sanctions, they are just fine with Kim playing Donald. They know Trump is also "hooked" and in his need to strike a deal with them on trade or face an economy that falls into recession and kicks him out of office.
101
@Barney Feinberg Agree, plus of course Trump Tower Pyongyang. Trump & Kim are playing different games under the illusory umbrella that it's the same game.
8
@Barney Feinberg- Mr. Trump can dream on. he is never going to get the Nobel Prize. Kim Jong-un will never abandon his nuclear program, it guarantees his survival. He may pretend to want peace on the Korean peninsula, but only on North Korean terms, which his father and grandfather very probably passed on to him. Not that he is going to invade South Korea , he will just wait until most U.S. troops retreat from S. Korea - hasn't Mr. Trump suggested that his beloved friend, i.e. North Korea no longer presents athreat to that part of the world?
5
@Barney Feinberg. Golly, you don’t think this could be the reason that the tariff talks with China have been “slowed” and not the “progress” that the Times has in its headline.
1
Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal because Obama was involved in it. There were no signs Iran was trying to circumvent it. But Trump is willing to overlook what North Korea is doing because it's his deal or because he thinks he can outsmart Kim Jong-un? Kim has been at this game far longer than Trump. He had the benefit of watching one previous Kim play the game.
I don't pretend to understand North Korea or why Trump is so willing to meet with them. However, I do wonder why he's more willing to meet with them than he is with the Cubans who are on our doorstep and had worked out a deal with Obama that would, if it had been followed up, benefitted both sides far more than this.
195
@hen3ry
Hard to argue that NK is the world's biggest threat.
3
@hen3ry
Because there are Cuban expats in Florida, but no large voting block opposed to peace with North Korea.
6
@OldTimer North Korea isn't the world's biggest threat. Not even close. They are a trivial small country with a few nuclear weapons and missiles. Russia is a far bigger threat, as is Pakistan. The latter being an unstable state with nuclear weapons and a strong Islamic fundamentalist anti-American presence.
2
Trump thinks that everyone can be bought, because he can. Little symbolic gestures that cost Kim nothing will go a long way with Trump. Just giving Donald something to brag about is all it takes because he is so obsessed with saying he's accomplished something where other administrations failed. He's in far over his head on this one.
22
No one can be conned more easily than a con man, especially one who lives for flattery, public flattery. Kim Jong Un is a terrible dictator who is willing to starve his people to achieve his objectives, but he is a brilliant, educated and crafty thinker. Trump is no match for Kim. One only hopes that if Trump goes too far this time, his Republican enablers will understand that Kim is eating Trump's lunch. Dinner is next on the menu.
8
Trump is always one thing and one thing only; desperate for praise and affirmation -- and in this case, desperate for a Nobel. The scary part is that he might give away the farm in an attempt to get to Stockholm....
7
The Nobel peace prize is given out in Oslo, Norway. The other Nobel prizes are given out in Stockholm, Sweden.
Trump won’t be going to either city to collect any prize.
A typical Trump “deal” involves a lot of hype and self congratulations, followed by law suits, stiffing contractors, more law suits, bankruptcy and then sign removal. I can hardly wait for this deal!
15
There will be no "winner" when a notorious narcissist does his Neville Chamberlain imitation of "Peace in our time." The world will now, as it did then, become a much darker, much less safe place. We'll all be losers as North Korea continues to increase its nuclear weapons arsenal and to destabilize the region. This is the ultimate price we'll pay for refusing to acknowledge, as many psychologists have warned [Disclosure: I'm one of them], that we have in Donald Trump a mentally unstable man who suffers from Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD). NPD is all about ego, adulation, grandiosity, superiority and it's dark or flip side that is the cruelty stemming from an absence of empathy for those who refuse to offer loyalty, praise or unconditional support. As an NPD suffer Donald Trump's desire for such adulation and the fantasy of a Novel Peace Prize blinds him to the treacherous reality he is placing the nation and the world.
21
Great column!
Trump is hopelessly naive, deriving his whole set of national and international policies on his "gut" and experience in running real estate scams by threats, lying and cheating. He is no negotiator. He has no understanding whatsoever of Kim's goals. Trump's only goal with NK, at his level of knowledge, is to win a Nobel Peace prize by running another scam.
With Trump's goal, America is indeed without a Plan. Trump defends his gut level of ignorance by collecting dimwits around him who have useless backgrounds AND are dedicated to making Trump look good and never disagree.
My only tiny disagreement with this column is the suggestion that anything at all will come of this summit. Trump will try to keep the actual talks secret, without any transcript, so that he can make up any story he wants about what transpired. Maybe there will be a statement of agreement in some lofty goal, like "nuclear disarmament", which, as discussed here, have diametrically opposite meanings to the opponents and no action items.
As noted, cessation of testing just says that Kim is happy with his present weapon and missile designs. No testing, in itself, is meaningless.
7
Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons and look what is happening there.
Gaddafi gave up his nuclear weapons and we know how that ended up.
Kim will not give up his nuclear weapons !
This deal needs to be negotiated by South Korea and China.
8
In order to divert attention from the Mueller report, Trump will come back from Hanoi with a treaty ending the Korean War, and proclaim victory. The only question is whether he will get off Air Force One waiving the treaty and proclaiming "Peace in our time."
However, now that the "war" has ended, and as both North and South Korea agree that there is only one country, the next steps will be (1) the withdrawal of our troops from the South, (2) the lifting of sanctions on the North, (3) a "free trade agreement" between North and South, and finally (4) a unified Korea under Kim's rule after a "free" plebicite.
The art of the deal!
5
"One wants to make North Korea safe for the world, while the other wants to make the world safe for North Korea."
Is the author of the article trying to kid us or con us? To believe Trump has a plan, is delusional. However, it's a safe bet that Mr. Kim has his own interests in mind, though not necessarily his nation's best interests.
If Trump actually were trying to make N. Korea safe for the world, he would be discussing the nuclear disarmament of N. Korea.
"The United States hopes to somehow keep the world safe from North Korea."
If by "The United States" Mr. Eberstadt is thinking of Mr. Trump, he is sadly wrong. The psychologist tell us that, as a narcissist, Mr. Trump is incapable of considering other peoples' interest. In the mind of our "stable genius", there is only one individual worthy of attention and/or affection: Donald J. Trump!
In arranging for this meeting, Mr. Trump has only one thing in mind: receiving the Nobel Peace Prize. Why? Because president Obama received that and Mr. Trump figures, and he has said that in may different ways, he is much more worthy of receiving that prize than Mr. Obama, since he believes his achievements are superior to the latter.
For those seeking an evidence, let me refer them to last week's Japan Times article: "Trump claims Abe nominated him for Nobel Peace Prize" by Jesse Jackson (2/16, 2019). According to the article, Mr. Trump has been pressuring Shinzō Abe, Japan's prime minister, to write to Nobel Prize Committee nominating him for Nobel Laureate.
When asked about Abe's letter to the Committee in the Rose garden, Mr. Trump said:
“Prime Minister Abe of Japan gave me the most beautiful copy of a letter that he sent to the people who give out a thing called the Nobel Prize,” Trump said. “He said, ‘I have nominated you, respectfully on behalf of Japan, I am asking them to give you the Nobel Peace Prize.’ “
6
Trump wants to be re elected in a couple of years, Kim doesn’t have that problem.
2
Who’s telling, or letting Trump think, he will gain the Nobel Peace Award for selling out South Korea in an agreement “end of hostilities” agreement with North Korea.
Dear Norwegian Nobel Committee:
Please dissuade this delusional President Trump that this strategy will not gain him the Peace Award and, FOR THAT, GRANT IT TO YOURSELF, IMMEDIATELY.
3
Dear Mr. Eberstadt
'Mr. Kim’s plan — the same as his father’s and grandfather’s, and one breathtakingly revisionist — is nothing less than unconditional reunification of the Korean Peninsula under the control of his government in Pyongyang. "
That is one objective, yes. No doubt
The other objective is
To lessen the Korea dependence on China that treated Korea for more than a thousand years as her tribute paying vassal, invading it numerous times. Please note that China and only agreed to Korean independence in 1895 after China was defeated by the West in the Opium Wars. And please not that Mr Xi's dream is to restore the power of ancient China
I.e. Mr Kims objective the same objective of that the communist regime in Vietnam. Which , for this reason, is very friendly to the US. Vietnam needs a counter against an ever more aggressive China
Along that objective, the US and Korea could agree on something constructive - if the US would be willing to have a neutral Korea (both N and S)
On verra
Trump has been painting himself into an ever-smaller corner in the USA -- as he appears weaker and more foolish with defeats (the border wall) and fake victories (renegotiation of
NAFTA, keeping an air-conditioning plant running (not!). Kim, on the other hand, appears to be perfectly safe in North Korea. In this situation, as Trump himself might realize, Trump's bargaining position vis a vis Kim is terribly weak. He was a fool to agree to this second meeting, at which the best he can hope for is some face-saving, empty promise from Kim.
Turns out that the non-author of "The Art of the Deal" doesn't even understand basic bargaining strategy. He's reduced himself to loosing and then lying about it.
It will be a pleasure to see that helicopter take him and Melania away after someone else is inaugurated as President in January 2021.
3
@joel bergsman
"Trump's bargaining position is very terribly weak"
NO, Mr.bergsman.
And NO , to all the other posts here dedicated to Trump-bashing, and not proposing anything else.
The problem is not that Trump's position is weak.
The problem is that the entire world's position is weak.
In this NYTimes echo chamber, 90% of the posts in this thread are merely expressing pride in proving how stupid and naive Trump is. Yes, that's all true.
But it's also irrelevant.
Being negative about Trump is fun, but useless.
So how about suggesting something positive?
If the election results had been different, please tell me how Hillary would be able to do something different than what Trump is doing now?
Kim has nukes. Obama could have stopped him. Bush could have stopped him. Jimmy Carter could have stopped him.
But now, nobody can stop him.
Kim has already provided nuke technology to one rogue state (Syria.)
When he sells his nukes to ISIS, blaming Trump won't help us rebuild New York from the ashes.
1
With the Cohen live hearings going on at the same time as this meeting I think the Vietnamese and the Korean president should laugh at Trump for all the corruption he and his family and administration are involved in. I would not trust Trump or any GOP.
51
Trump has elevated Kim to the status of a relevant world leader. North Korea has a GDP of $12.4 billion. To put that in perspective, that's about 7% of the annual revenues of Amazon.com.
The greater issue, I think, is that Trump is entering into this discussion in bad faith with the American people. His agenda has nothing to do with world peace.
Rather, Trump's agenda is to raise his own profile in advance of 2020. Undoubtedly Trump will lie about any accomplishments - just as he did the first time.
5
The winner will be the Korean people. Divided for seventy plus years there is now a real chance for a peaceful relationship. North and South would remain with separate governments but on friendly terms. This is what Moon (whom Eberstadt seems to consider a fool) is working toward. And it may happen.
16
@joelibacsi
"This is what Moon (whom Eberstadt seems to consider a fool) is working toward."....
If Kim Jong-un can continue his ruthless and barbaric rule under a "separate government" with Moon's blessing and economic support, then Eberstadt is correct.
6
@joelibacsi
How is being on friendly terms with a barbaric, cruel and almost comically insane regime like North Korea's to anyone's benefit? What do the South Koreans "win" by having easy access to their starving, brain-washed automatons to the north? Except, that is, when the North Koreans randomly choose to arrest them as spies, and force them into hard labor.
What do you see happening in this mythical future friendly relationship that is different (and better) than now?
5
@joelibacsi All evidence to the contrary.
Hopefully the winner will be the world, but based on past performances by these two "leaders", I'm realistically pessimistic...
1
It's their second date. How far will they go? Well, one of them seems to need to do anything for approval...so count on him to be submissive while declaring a great victory. No need to guess which party that will be.
9
The byline is clever, but untrue. Our guy doesn't care if he makes NK safe for the world. This is nothing but a stage for him to appear presidential on. His big idea is to imagine hotels there. We have no foreign policy other than what might turn a profit for Trump and his rich friends. Other than that, who cares? Expect nothing except probably some ill-advised concessions, as this article rightly warns against.
16
@SWB
Agree, but with one exception: the Nobel Peace prize trumps hotels. It's about one-upping Obama.
2
I wish great success for President Trump in this forthcoming encounter. The vital interests of America are in his hands, and he needs all of our support.
Is he the right person in whom to vest our hopes? My own view is that we would be better off with someone chosen at random from the phone book (if those still exist). But we don’t have the luxury of wanting him to fail.
We need to replace Trum and his hapless band with real leaders as soon as we can, but you go to war with the army you’ve got. Terrifyingly, that’s the Trump circus.
9
"Mr. Kim bested Mr. Trump at their first meeting in Singapore in June last year. And he is poised to do so again....The reason is simple: He has a strategy and the Americans do not.'
And therein lie so many of our current foreign policy issues. If you shoot first, and then call it the target, your chances of missing the best possible mark for the US are dramatically reduced.
Donald Trump's lack of significant domestic accomplishments are making him lean too heavily on his relationship with Kim to "prove" his worth as Commander in Chief. But his character flaws, particularly overconfidence in his own instincts and under-confidence in his intel agencies--could prove disastrous long term.
And when you throw in the obsequious South Korea leader Moon, well, you present a cakewalk for the northern dictator who has the advantage of answering to nobody while the other leaders have their own weaknesses at home.
I think all Kim Jong-un needs to do is show up and keep to his strategy of appearing reasonable while pursuing programs that benefit his view of what will keep DPRK safe.
In the past, this has been more than enough to keep Donald Trump happy to give away things he doesn't have to so he can brag at rallies, and hope for that Nobel--while the world isn't one iota safer.
9
China holds the cards here.
If Trump can't get China to agree to continue reduced trade and support for NK's economy, he has no leverage with Kim.
4
If history is any indication, Trump's principal reason for meeting with Kim Jong-un has nothing to do with diplomacy, reducing nuclear weapons or promoting international peace. It has everything to do with Trump laying the groundwork for him and his crime family to build hotels, condos, golf courses, doggie snack bars and whatever else he can erect along "the great, great, fabulous beaches of North Korea, folks." Kim is infinitely smarter than Trump, however, and will probably grant the American autocrat permission for a motel or two somewhere on the outskirts of Pyongyang — in exchange for allowing Kim to keep all of his nuclear weapons, locked and ready. And Trump will be fine with the arrangement. "We have a great relationship, folks." Great, indeed.
27
I'm sorry but I think the author's suggestion wouldn't help at all. a resume of the "maximum pressure" would be likely to provide a very nice reason for North Korea to resume missile testing, given that they have always justified their acts as "deterrence". I disagree that the pressure policy was helpful to ease the tensions on the region, constrain the North from military provocations.
Americans liberals should imagine more than just "keep pressure, and they will respond".
2
@Jung:
It's worth noting that the author is an analyst at a conservative think tank. He is not espousing a liberal position at all.
1
It would be useful if the current administration leveraged China's desire to end tariffs to pursue further economic isolation of North Korea. However, in an absolute dictatorship, sanctions can only achieve so much. The ruling class always finds a way to fund itself.
Outside of that gambit there seem to be no strategic pieces put in place by the Trump administration. South Korea is no more ready to absorb the potential impact of a military strategy to force North Korea's hand now than it was a year ago; a wasted opportunity to clear the field for an unsavory but needed option. In the end Kim will bend to US demands only if he sees no other option to keep himself in power. Right now he has options, thanks to the witless approach being used currently, and the ego-driven desire of Trump to appear like a "winner."
4
Excellent column written by a specialist who knows how North Korea and the USA have arrived at the present state of affairs as concerns Korean-USA politics and North Korea's plan for the future. As a scholar, Mr. Eberstadt also demonstrates the importance of reasoned presentation.
There is nothing worth writing about the President of the United States and his meeting with Kim Jong-un. Donald Trump knows little and can reason even less.
A comment writer hopes that there will be skilled translators and note takers who will produce a transcript of the meeting. We learned from Trump-Putin that this expression of hope is in vain.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Citizen US SE
31
Not even conservatives believe Trump wants to "make North Korea safe for the world," and I can't possibly believe that anyone who has spent even a few minutes listening to Trump believes that either. Trump cares about declaring a win, and that's it.
68
@Randall Agreed.
It's just a vanity trip for him.
3
@Randall And all the Trump supporters care about is that Trump is sticking it to libruls. They don't know or care if he gives away the store to NK, China, Rusher or wherever.
4
Mr. Ebertstadt ---
Oh, don't be such a Debbie Downer. Trump fixed North Korea last time! He'll fix it even better this time!
You just can't handle so much winning! SAD!
41
@Bruce In what way did Trump fix North Korea the last time? He accomplished nothing. NK is not less of a threat simply because your dear leader says so.
2
@Jennifer
I think you missed the sarcasm...
4
@LauraF --- yes. I hoped I wouldn't have to say it out loud. :-p
2
North Korea “bested” someone alright.
But it wasn’t Trump. It was Obama. And Bush II. And Clinton.
The die was cast when Clinton took Jimmy Carter’s advice and didn’t stop North Korea in the 1990’s. And it was a “good” decision, because no Americans would/will support a land war in North Korea with thousands of casualties.
Acquiring nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles was the only possible outcome from that point forward. The use of sanctions for the past two decades didn’t work, just as they never work with authoritarian regimes that maintain a strong hold over the ruling structure and population.
Let’s be realistic.
North Korea is a nuclear weapons state and nothing and no one will change that anymore. Not Trump. Not Biden/Sanders/Warren/Harris/Booker/etc.
The only thing that we can achieve at this point will be perhaps a limit on the number of nuclear weapons and the range of missiles, a continued moratorium on testing, and most importantly, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons/missiles from North Korea to other countries. The price will be normalization of relations.
NK won. The U.S. lost. It stinks. But it’s reality.
13
@John: Yes, NK got its missiles and a-bombs despite the efforts of previous presidents.
But this op-ed doesn't unrealistically demand denuclearization of NK.
What it does say is that under the feckless, poorly defined, and PR-driven Trump administration, the situation with NK could get much worse. For example, the US could be put in a position where it loses the justification to keep our troops in South Korea.
There is something at stake here: an independent South Korea. The US hasn't lost that yet. You should be asking whether Donald Trump is the right leader to keep Kim from forcing the "unconditional reunification of the Korean Peninsula under the control of his government in Pyongyang." Making unilateral concessions to NK like troop withdrawals, scaling back of sanctions and joint military exercises, and even signing a peace treaty would make it easier for NK to achieve their goals, at the expense of the rest of the world.
16
The explicit assumption here is that it is Trump that wants to make the world safe. We have been at it for two years now with Trump but until now, nothing that he has said or done support that assumption. The author's assumption would be laughable were it not for the serious nature of the consequences.
Trump is a narcissist. Trump does not read his briefings; he takes Putin's word over his own national security team, and the rest of the world thinks that both he and his entourage is a joke; a bit like the Three Stooges (Trump as Moe) negotiating with one of the Marx brothers.
This is just a publicity stunt, and he is playing with the entire world. Up until now, Trump has been relegated to minor issues, preferring the difficult tasks inherent in "Executive Time" to the challenge of actually governing. Obama did the heavy lifting for him on the economy and in foreign affairs, doing the best that he could, having to clean up his predecessor's mess.
So, let's get real here: the only thing that Trump is going to do with the Koreans will probably involve scouting out golf courses while he attempts to change the subject from the Mueller investigation. And that is not going to happen.
The author needs to disabuse himself of the notion that Trump has the countries' interests at heart. Trump is playing with the country; a volatile brew of incompetence and malice. Trump should be impeached if he screws this up, as is likely, and we are still alive to suffer the consequence
108
As usual, the narcissist in chief has only one aim in mind, to achieve a nobel prize.
33
@Captain Courageous Not going to happen either. Just as Obama got a NPP ripping fast in his administration, essentially for being black while POTUS, Trump is too hated by Europeans (who make the NPP decision) to ever get the NPP. Even if Trump walked on water, he'd get bupkis. And he sure does not walk on water.
Let's see now, Trump is in Hanoi and Pence is in Bogata. That means Nancy is in charge. GO NANCY!
37
Why do the Republicans in congress give the buffoon Trump a free hand in negotiating with Kim? Well it is pretty simple most of them along with Trump are criminals, not in the legal sense but in the sense that they care nothing about the future of the U.S. much less human civilization. Look at their position on man-made climate change, arguably the most serious threat that humanity faces.
26
Kim wants recognition as a world leader. He could care less about the rest of the world. The other only cares about himself. Therefore, Kim wins.
17
This is a scary situation. Trump is very weak politically and cares only for scoring a talking point. Although I believe Pompeo to be highly capable (I disagree with him ideologically), he has to comport to Trump's whims and that probably demands most of his skills. Add in the fact that Trump only cares about what happens while he's in office and you a roadmap to disaster, and, not so ironically, to Trump's reelection. It would not be until Trump's second term or later that voters will see the full consequences of a bad deal. Our only hope is that any bad deal is bashed endlessly by the Democratic candidates for president (a la Trump) and that the media grabs onto these criticisms.
7
Never in my lifetime have I ever thought that the united States of America would go into a negotiating session with another country and be fearful that we were going to have our lunch money taken.
Welcome to trumpworld. Incompetence, ineptitude and immorality all rolled into one package to the benefit of the few and the detriment of the many.
178
@drw Don't worry,Trump will put Jarred in charge...
3
@drw Yup, that pretty much describes that situation. I do not want to disparage American voters, but how and why did people see fit to support Trump? He has been a grand failure as a leader and representative of the American people.
4
Mr. Eberstadt obviously agrees with Kim that President Trump is a
"dotard." His whole thesis tilts that way. How does he know that NK doesn't need continued testing? I think that the U.S. is playing " hard ball" not the other way around. Sanctions are still biting and a recent 60 Minutes story claims Kim Jong-un is running out of money. So let's see what happens.
1
@OldTimer, NK does not need to do any more testing for two reasons: 1, they have proven their capability to launch a missile that can hit most of the continental USA. 2. Any additional launches might expose weaknesses that the USA can exploit. So, there is no benefit to NK to conduct additional tests. Kim however can still bargain for something in exchange for stopping tests he does not want to launch.
6
@OldTimer. hi knows because our own intelligence agencies agree that Kim has not stopped his nuclear weapons program.
1
P.T. Barnum once said a sucker is born every minute.
Judging by the President's well-acknowledged ego and desperation to leave a legacy at any cost, Trump's birth must have taken an hour.
7
As for trump's objective in this little show, from what I've read it's not so much actual peace, but rather the prize so named that he desperately he wants because..... Obama got one.
25
@Deb
Please, why would he want a Prize that was given previously to someone because of what he 'might' do instead of what he had done? That Prize lost all its meaning when they gave it to Obama days into his election, before he had done anything to earn it. He is not jealous of Obama because he has no reason to be jealous of Obama so stop believing that.
1
I’m sorry, South Korea. “ WE “ are afflicted with a terrible disease, it’s called Trump. And you, unfortunately, will also suffer the consequences. Stand firm, and know the end is in sight. For Him, and his Collaborators. 2020.
44
Hubris is a dangerous character flaw. It is frightening to ponder how much damage the president can inflict in two more years, particularly as his domestic problems come to a hilt.
10
Once again Trump's obsession with Obama plays a role. Trump wants to be seen as succeeding where Obama "failed". Obama's warning to Trump about North Korea is common knowledge, and according to credible sources, Trump has already lied to the American public about their conversation about the DPRK on January 20th. The bottom line is that North Korea will never give up its nuclear weapons. Trump's Obama obsession is problematic because no matter what takes place, Trump will portray the Hanoi meeting as a great success, and in his narcisstic compulsion to discredit Obama, will surely declare " significant progress", toward a comprehensive agreement. The danger is that in the process, he may compromise the security of South Korea,and
negatively impact the subsequent disposition of American forces.
43
@Don Shipp.
You're right on the money. Trump's mania for the destruction of the Obama legacy has fueled every moment of his tenure. He doesn't have a GOP agenda; he has an anti-Obama agenda. He saw Obama as too obliging to the European allies; hence his antipathy. Where Obama saw enemies, Trump sees potential friends. Kim well knows that all Trump cares about is the appearance of a deal so he can claim to have succeeded where Obama failed.
@Ray C
The presience of your analysis is unexcelled in its references, especially to Europe, and the lack of a G.O.P agenda.
1
@Ray C. It's not even as rational as "He saw Obama as too obliging to the European allies . . . ." Obama made a fool of Trump in public at the White House Correspondents' Dinner in 2011. It is that and absolutely nothing else that drives Mr. Trump's anti-Obama mania. There is never a rationale. Just petty revenge. As we--the American people--don't fit into the picture at all except as spectators.
"And rational actors do not bargain away their core interests; only fools or traitors do."
trump is both.
60
there must be some mistake.
trump has assured anybody who will listen--or is forced to--that he's really smart and great at deals.
he has the proof with the bankruptcies and how well he did when he and the republicocrats controlled the machinery guvmint.
he has unimpeachable honesty and integrity.
a direct, and worthy. descendant of washington and honest abe.
poor dear leader3 doesn't have a chance against a man who went to wharton.
27
Trump, at his point, with the Mueller report ready to land and his emergency powers headed for the courts, he desperately needs a fake win---Trump is readying all of us for a Neville Chamberlain moment ..
21
@Amanda Jones Except I'd bet the rent money Trump never heard of Neville Chamberlain.
4
There will be one leader who thinks he is the winner (Trump) and one who is the actual winner (Kim).
13
Trump represents a clear and present danger to the US Constitution that I once swore to defend against all enemies foreign and domestic. My only question in who I will fight is: I'm not sure which threat Trump represents.
11
I suspect the main reason Trump is “hungry” for a deal is that he believes it will win him a Nobel Peace Prize, a validation he desperately craves.
6
@DoTheMath If Trump somehow gets a Nobel peace prize, it will be to the great detriment of the Nobel peace prize committee which will lose all credibility. Adios, Nobel Peace Prize.
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Excellent assessment.
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We have grown so accustomed to sitting in front of our TVs and watching the nightly news about nuclear weapons that we don't really stop to think anymore about the reality of these weapons. We won't be insane when we finally unleash these terrible bombs on each other; no, we're insane for having constructed the ability to destroy all human life on the planet. Yet, there is a way to retreat from this insanity.
In the near future, we will program the human mind in the computer based on a "survival" algorithm, which will provide irrefutable proof as to how we trick the mind with our ridiculous beliefs about what is supposed to survive - producing minds programmed de facto for destruction. These minds would see the survival of a particular group of people or a belief as more important than the survival of all. When we understand all this, we will begin the long trek back to reason and sanity.
See RevolutionOfReason.com
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It's not about winning or losing. Not about deals at this point. And don't call Trump a traitor here.
It's about connection, communication. relationship. Myself a critic of Donald Trump, I applaud him for this.
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Unfortunately, down here in Alabama, people believe Trump and his proclamations (lies) and tweets (lies and propaganda). It's happened before (think George Wallace, Roy Moore, et al) but it makes Alabamians comfortable and we're happy.
The real truth is that trump is not a negotiator, he is a bully with only one strategy. In a room with well prepared, skillful negotiators, trump will lose and lose big! The simple fact is that trump's gut is usually wrong, yet trump's tongue can spin golden threads to an uneducated and poorly informed populace. "He always wins! Promises Made, Promises Kept"...even when he fails at his most repeated and basic promises (Mexico pays, building the wall, better healthcare, $4,000 for every taxpayer, ad nauseam).
So what can we expect? Nothing that is beneficial to the US or its citizens. Trump can't work with a team and he's not smart or clever enough to figure out how to deal with foreign culture, much less deal with language (Korean and diplomacy, what's an MOU?). He works in the moment and thus is NEVER prepared, and only reacts to his opponent and/or his own "flashes of brilliance" (July 4th rings a bell.)
It's interesting that trump will arrive in a Boeing 747 loaded with technology while Kim travels via an aging railcar. But in the room, Kim has the skill, determination and vision to twist trump in knots and pick his pockets! The end of six decades of joint military exercises is only one great example. Kim is right -- trump is a dotard.
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@Alabama Speaks. I must ask: are Alabamians that foolish - naive - blind, that they will support Trump given all the ridiculous things he has done since being elected?
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If only Trump did want to keep the world safe from North Korea. But, that seems secondary to his goal of fulfilling his delusional quest for a Nobel prize. Appearance always matter the most to Trump, so actually achieving anything meaningful is not what counts. The fact that the U.S. is woefully unprepared for this meeting, and that Trump, once again, will rely on his own counsel, should be cause for alarm. Biegun is a great asset for the U.S., but it's anyone's guess if Trump will pay any attention to the expertise he can offer. Too bad for the world that it's "Team Trump." How much better it would be if it was "Team America." But, in the age of Trump, he is all that matters.
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@Ms. Pea
If that's a reference to the movie, I concur.
How is it that a half starved, small country that is backward in almost all respects, is allowed to dictate terms of the world surrendering to it. There is no logical reason for this to be the case.
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@alank
Could be because no one wants to get invovlved in another war on the Korean peninsula which, it seems, would be needed to actually clean the place out. That would also require another case of nation building after, and if, it was destroyed.
Also, they are propped up by China and no one wants to risk all out war with China.
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@alank N Korea is the poker player always willing to go "all in" regardless of his hand. It's a surprisingly effective strategy. Is it a bluff, or is he holding two aces as hole cards? In this case, N Korea's advantage is that it shares a border with China and one can only imagine the consequences of a nuclear exchange with this "half-starved, small and backward country" that would directly affect a hugely powerful nation possessing an immense nuclear arsenal bristling with intercontinental missiles. So, actually, there are a myriad of logical reasons why it is imperative to arrive at a diplomatic resolution -- unfortunately the current administration is woefully ill-prepared.
@alank I add to the replies, trying to be both serious and facetious following the model of author Ali Smith.
Perhaps these are possible reasons. The entire voter registration and electoral system of the USA is hopelessly antiquated, making it easy for a charlatan to become president while getting fewer votes than an intelligent woman. The USA is fixated on Iran, devoting the energies of Administration officials to set the stage for war or intervention there while showing month by month incompetence as concerns North Korea. The twitter record of DT is the record of that incompetence.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Citizen US SE
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It is easy to predict that Trump will achieve nothing that improves US security at a meeting with Kim. The US should be negotiating with China about tightening sanctions, not with North Korea. Trump's negotiation skills were displayed in full in his dealings with Nancy Pelosi who proceeded to eat his lunch. The good thing is that Pelosi was fighting for US interests, no such comfort with Kim. Trump should let Pelosi handle Kim, the US cannot afford Kim taking him to the cleaners.
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@serban
it's hard for me to understand what exactly americans quiver about when it comes to north korea.
three generations of dear leaders have shown that they survive and know what they can get away with.
despite what trump bloviates, the usa has never been shy about invading and bombing other countries. they manage to take credit for winning ww1&2 even tho the show was underway--and turning against the Nazis--when they were forced into ww2.
why would dear lreader3 bring about his own destruction by starting a real war?
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@brupic It is plausible that the USSR would have eventually prevailed over Nazi Germany without US help, but the war would have lasted a few more years, and all of Europe would have ended up under USSR dominance. Japan on the other hand, without US intervention, would still be ruling over most of Asia today.
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Hopefully there will be some kind of monitors present for the Kim/Trump Love Fest/Tea party this time, so at least there will be some kind of verifiable record of what exactly of substance, if anything, has been discussed and what agreements, if any, were made. So tired of Trump's secrecy and lies.
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@Chris. You mean you can’t stand the “wins?” On Turesday the Senate will show you what a real “win” is like — for Trump — as the Republican Party rolls over and rejects its own Constitutional right to determine how public money is to be spent, aka the power of the purse. We’ve been watching the devolution of our democracy from the inside and too many people, especially in the Republican Party, just don’t care. What happens in Korea is just one more adjunct activity for most Americans. They have been losing since Trump came into office. They either don’t care or they love the antagonism and emotion he generates instead of constructive action.
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Trump's mindset is that if he and Kim are the only ones in the room, it doesn't matter what happens. He can just concede to everything, and then come out and say he struck a magnificent deal, and deserves the Nobel peace prize. Being the only one who knows what happened, he will weave a scenario of his own.
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Trump is the doltish used car salesman, desperately behind in his sales quota, walking into the teeth of an extremely savvy buyer who's done his research. Trump doesn't stand a chance. He will give away the store to continue his claim of being 'the best negotiator' and immediately claim he should get 'Salesman of the Year' award.
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In his previous world, failure to strike a deal meant that you simply went o. to the next deal (or attempted deal). DJT has yet to learn that these encounters have consequences beyond the deal itself.
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There will be no "winner", cosmo.
The Con Don wants to be a Kim-type dictator. He wants to bring Kim into the International Mafia 0.01% Robber Baron/Radical religion Good Old Boys cabal long enough to control him. Once he's been used as much as possible he is dust.
Nobody wins in the Robber Baron attempt to create their evil empire. Nobody.
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