Why do Americans, including the NYT editorial board, think they should have a say in Britain's choice for its own future?
9
As a subscriber to the Times I really do value your reporting and website on certain topics, e.g. receding glaciers in Switzerland. However on other topics I the paper's true colours come out. I saw Fahrenheit 11/9 a few days ago and it was plain that the paper has an agenda and a certain political system / status quo to maintain. How can a so-called supporter of democratic institutions show callous disregard for a popular people's vote. Brexit isn't perfect, but it's much better than the anti-democracy espoused by the EU and its underlings like the New York Times. Keep being sanctimonious, it seems this is the American way.
7
Am generally not a fan of Progressives clamoring for do-over elections...
This is a glaring exception...
In that vein, humbly offer for export a proven campaign slogan for Remainers…
Not quite two haikus, or even half a tweet…
"If you like importing and exporting things, you'll be able to keep importing and exporting things"
…but gets at the heart of the matter
3
Well I guess that these fools will find out on March 29th what it is like to have their very own Donald trump and Mitch McConnell.
15
The parallels between the political disintegration on both sides of the 'pond'are truly alarming. Trump was Democrat until it was opportunist to switch. May was a Brexit Remainer until personal ambition buried that. The U. S. has had a dysfunctional Congress for a decade, the UK parliament has become an international joke as MPs behave like circus contortionists, wrapping themselves in knots trying to face every whichway, in solely personal interest, with morality and the national interest consigned to the toilet.
Irreversible damage to western democracy.
9
"The March of Folly." By Barbara Tuchman. Remember that book?
Folly? Yes. To such an extent, human history is just that--mistaken loyalties, misguided policies, odious causes. But Ms. Tuchman finally felt impelled to turn from World War I and the Zimmerman telegram and pre-war society--
--and tackle the problem head on. Why are we human beings such fools? Why do we LISTEN to fools? Or knaves--people actuated by pure self-interest? Or worse.
My son (a lawyer) was talking about the Brexiteers just last night (over supper). Gosh, he exclaimed--what a parcel of rogues! They did the mischief they could--they promised the moon and the stars, they went about the land hawking their snake oil--they bamboozled and misled millions of British voters (to most of whom these economic issues are as opaque as they are--well--to me).
And Brexit went through. Though not (as I recall) by a landslide. But still--it passed. And then--
--and then, New York Times--
--they skedaddled.
As if you could imagine Samson (in the Bible)--straining every muscle to bring down that Philistine temple--
--and then--
-jumping clear of the wreckage. Preserving his life--
--and leaving thousands of maimed and dying Philistines in his wake.
What a crew! Lord love you, what a crew!
"A middling economy in the middle of the Atlantic."
A grim come-down from all those golden dreams.
Ah so. Just HOW grim?
I guess they'll find out.
So will we.
3
So Britain is basically committing economic suicide right in front of most of their European allies along with those of us in the rest of the world. Ho hum!
Let’s not be to smug about this. The US is fast losing its status in the rest of the world. I’m not exactly sure of just what will be the end game for the trump administration and his republican colluders but we better be careful about laughing about Britain.
Our current road makes Brexit look like a kids game. Justwhere is our leadership, most notabally in the senate which is supposed to be equal the the president. Mitch is just a lap boy, and a sad example at that. God help us all.
17
Tony Blair knows what to do. Too bad our guy, Bush, so discredited him in the eyes of the British.
7
It appears the Russia/Bannon/Trump/Cambridge Analytica connection with Brexit and coordinated effort to weaken democracy and western alliances is working.
14
Brexit was always a mad thought. A fantasy sold by lies and speculation. Now that the actual deal is so obviously worse than remaining, the British should swallow their pride and admit the mistake. Simply decline to leave on these terms. Not crash out, just stay. Like a divorcing couple who decide to reconcile. Just admit to being foolish rather than persist in being stupid. Stay for the sake of the kids.
The worst choice is being stuck following the EU rules with no say in making them or amending them, and paying lots of money for the pleasure of being worse off. Act in haste and repent at leisure.
You have the idiocy of leaving the comfort of the EU community while others struggle trying to get in! The harm of leaving far outweighs the harm of remaining. A child could see that remaining on board a leaky boat speeding down a flood powered stream was better than jumping overboard.
9
Brexit merely proves that the US doesn't have a monopoly on tragically stupid moves based on the fears, credulity, and racism of its citizens. But it's still sad...
21
Stop calling then brexiteers, it is entirely too cute a name for cheering on something that will be so damaging to so many people
5
The only way I can explain Brexit to myself is with the following parable: The captain of a cruise ship at sea in stormy weather, asks the sea-sick passengers whether to maintain course or change direction. The cook and the steward had been telling the passengers stories about Tahiti and the bare-breasted girls there, so most of the passengers vote to sail immediately for that island.
No one has told the passengers that shoals and corals lie along that course, and now the captain, fearing a mutiny that will cost him his head, orders the helmsman to sail straight for Tahiti, knowing full well the ship is bound to founder before ever reaching land.
9
Progressive rarely accept a vote when it is against their "educated" opinion. Get it over with: hard Brexit is what I say!
2
Maggie Thatcher could have gotten it done.
3
Referendum..... it is a no brainer when the most googled term the day after the vote was "what is the EU?"..... the russians were behind the brexit push to begin with, don't let them destroy this country
5
Brexiteers, Trumpettes, etc. It's all the same impulse: simple, satisfyingly hateful solutions to complex problems.
I have become convinced, sadly, that the only way to get rid of these annoyingly dumb, loud, arrogant populists and to break the spell that their shallow patriotism and sloganeering has on the simple-minded and willfully uninformed is to let them drive things into the ditch.
When enough people lose their careers and homes, when economic times get bad enough, when the youth of this charming little movement are brownshirting it up in a thousand Charlottesvilles perhaps people will learn that slogans and bigotry are no substitute for policy and vision.
11
Wow. The 2 greatest Democracies on Earth are losing it's mind at the same time. I wonder about all the similarities, but one thing that sticks out the most is that both countries have enough stupid, anti-immigrant citizens who proudly accept fake news and lies to appease their anger. Russia and other countries are meddling in our Democracies and it's time our politicians wake up and take action instead of fighting internally and destroying ourselves. Put country above parties. That goes for both Britain and the USA.
5
Both the Brexit vote and the U.S. presidential vote were illegitimate do to cyber war with data mining and pscyo-shaping by Russia.
5
As many have pointed out, America has voted by a narrow margin to undertake its own version of Brexit with its go-it-alone, America First, seal-the-borders strategy. Some of the uninformed voters who bought into this idea are now seeing the consequences of this program — call it “Flexit” —and we’re all looking forward to another referendum on November 3, 2020.
Mistakes can be corrected: I hope the Brits can exit Brexit, and I know Americans will trump Trump.
8
Have noticed numbers of large companies, including in the financial sector, leaving the UK. Even if a 2nd referendum were held, the trust, and those jobs are lost- it takes a lot of planning & effort to move to, say, Belgium, and businesses that are successful, unlike some political bodies, don’t usually fly by the seat of their pants. They won’t come back to the UK. This is something men like Farage and ‘BoJo’ are not addressing. It must be extremely hard to be Mrs. May.
9
With my Brit hat on, you cannot leave out of the analysis the total and complete lack of leadership shown by the leader of Labour, the looney tunes leftist Jeremy Corbyn. He is waiting for May to fail and the UK crash out of the EU so that he can get on with "building socialism in one country". His role models are Fidel and Chavez. No kidding.
If Labour functioned as a true opposition, we would not be where we are. As long as Jeremy Corbyn leads Labour we have no hope.
8
Very simple. Britain should simply declare independence from the EU.
At one time they had a veto on any action from the EU and they let that go. That was stupid.
The States in the USA also agreed to Union with a vert strong
provision in our Constitution: the 10th Amendment. We need to make that mean what it says ... and we can do THAT with a simple ruling from the Supreme court. Just one more conservative Justice would help.
Was there a poison pill recently inserted into the English language that prompts the two major countries that speak it to behave like a group of squabbling children from a juvenile reform school to place the pyrrhic victory of senseless rhetoric over the interests of the countries they are tasked with leading?
5
The timing of Brexit smacks of interference by Cambridge-Analytica.Why don't our friends in Britain demand a revote?I wish we could do the same here for the 2016 election that made a corrupt, lowlife poseur of a president ruin our country, with a great deal of help from Mitch McConnell and the entire Republican Party.Often I have heard the British voters complain that they were mislead, didn't really understand what they were voting for, didn't think it would really happen...why not have another go at it??
6
I used to care about this, but it’s like a friend who you watch get his third DUI, if he won’t stop both drinking and driving maybe it’s time to let justice take its course before he kills someone.
4
The Brexit vote mirrors our own in the States: old white men vote their prejudices; young people don't vote at all or are heard to say, "I thought it would fail." or "I gave it no thought until I was in the voting booth."; otherwise intelligent people suddenly vote for the simple over the complex and nuanced; otherwise intelligent people vote without considering what it will mean for the future; and finally, the news media engage in what we came to call "false equivalency," where Hillary's emails are harped upon continuously while Trump's misogyny and racism are, at best, one day's news.
For you in the UK who want another referendum, I have no hope that this will ever get better.
2
Stop the dithering and also the dance macabre with radicals of both the right and left. The way forward is clear. Hold another referendum to decide the issue, which is too important to be decided by one vote that was largely driven by distortion, xenophobia and lies. Polls consistently show a solid majority of close to 60% in favor of remaining. A better-informed electorate deserves to have another say in the matter. It's the only fair and reasonable thing to do.
2
It strikes me more and more with this Brexit saga, that never a truer word was written than in the opinion piece by Pankaj Mishra " The Malign Incompetence of The British Ruling Class"
2
I have a question for the Brits and their historical/constitutional experts. (I have only what I've picked up from reading "The Daughter of Time" by Josephine Tey, and the Philippa Gregory books.)
If an extension is not possible, could the Irish border problem be dealt with this way:
The United Kingdom STAYS in the E.U.; England just "secedes" from the U.K. to the extent necessary for it to "leave". Or England and Wales, perhaps.
That lets Northern Ireland stay in the E.U. with no border problem. Also Scotland, who want to stay, I think.
England would need to patrol her own coasts and the Scottish border, but they've already even got a wall for that (Hadrian's, in mostly the right place I believe)!
And the monarchy, if it wants to, could stay in the E.U. -- living at Balmoral, or on one of the Channel Islands for a while.
Just spitballing here, but why not, when the folks supposedly in charge are so cack-handed!
1
It's a very disappointing argument for democracy when both we and Britain can't make wise bipartisan decisions based on the real problems we face and real options we have.
No wonder 1/3 of the US feels better following childish would-be dictators with simple solutions. Life is complex but we don't have the quality representatives and political culture we need to arrive at smart compromises and serve the people. So everybody becomes enraged and wants to elect someone who can just bulldoze the opposition to get their way.
Our countries do have real national emergencies in terms of income inequality, health and education outcomes, drug addiction, white-collar crime, and most of all climate change. Instead here we are muffing it on Brexit and a wall.
1
You reap what you sow - and if we are not careful We are next.
2
Correct me if I'm wrong, but May could let Britons vote again on the matter and chooses not to do so. That, as they say, is on her.
3
Plan ?
Put everything back to where it was the day before the UK joined in.
The UK worked quite well for centuries without the EU and it will do well for centuries to come, without the EU.
The Brexiters who insist on the primacy of the will of the people apparently select to overlook that a refrendum on the same subject - 1975, produce a resounding yes vote to remain. On a 64% turnout the vote to remain was 67% to 33% to exit.
The 2016 referendum resulted in a very close, nay marginal result that now when the details of the economic and political circumstances have been aired and analysed in greater detail and clarity that it would be sensible to offer the voters another opportunity to express their preference.
The mechanism for this is fairly simple, a parliamentary vote in the form of legislation to delay the implementation of Article 50 for 12 months; legislation to call a referendim with clear choice of Yes or No on exit from the EU and with provision in the same legislation that binds the government to accept and act and actuate the voters preference.
Perhaps the Brexiters are afraid that this time round it would more difficult to circumvent the electoral rules on financing the No vote.
4
If Britain decided it wanted an extension of time before Brexit, or to Remain after all, are they even allowed to make that choice? I thought the current deadline and Brexit agreements were binding. The article headline implies that it is possible to stop the clock but I've never heard that.
And what would be the point of a time extension? Is it to have their government keep begging the rest of the EU for a better deal? Or would it just buy them time so they can plan for a smoother departure?
John Oliver did an excellent piece on Brexit on his show last night. He explained Brexit and the ramifications of going foward with it or just trashing the whole thing. He talked about how Ireland was a main complication which could effect goods getting into the rest of the UK and he talked about how Brexit could greatly damage Britain's economy. A flower vendor was interviewed in Britain who voted for Brexit now regrets his vote because he now realizes it will be detrimental to his business as the flowers he imports might be nearly dead due to delays of getting into England. And if the UK decides not to go foward with Brexit they have till year's end before the EU can penalize them.
2
Sounds a bit like the Y2K hysteria. Most likely, nothing of consequence will happen with Brexit, if it happens at all. Britain still produces a lot of goods and services that EU countries (and for that matter, the rest of the world) want to buy. British firms are innovative, the businesses take risks, and the country values democracy. No country with such characteristics should be held captive to a dysfunctional EU. Short term pain is a possibility, but emphasis on short term.
Some perspective might help. The force shaping just about everything going on in Europe is people moving across borders. In response to East European workers in Britain, and in response to growing refugee problems in the rest of Europe, every country is turning to extreme solutions (European default being far right authoritarianism, Britain's default being 'we will go it alone').
But it is not as if Britain has stopped (or will stop) producing value, or be disinterested in trade. I am not sure whether the Brits should withdraw Article 50 application to exit; if anything EU should cave and place Britain in the driver's seat, and make all concessions necessary for them to stay. If this is not acceptable to EU, no other solution is acceptable to Britain. Then the exit occurs, then there is a momentary lapse, and Britain thrives again with links to everyone in the world. There is no incentive for Britain to serve in a fortress Europe when it can lead in the whole world.
3
Wrong in so many ways. Just look at the companies moving out of the UK now including Honda. The Balance of Payments crisis will worsen and the £ will go through the floor. The only good Brexit is no Brexit.
5
The basic flaw in your analogy is that Y2K was solved by an army of skilled people fixing the problem in time. It would have been a catastrophe if everyone had just hand-waved a magic solution and hoped everything would be okay.
Which, ironically, is how Britain is handling Brexit. There isnt a deal in place. There has been no planning. The PM is literally using self-harm (a no deal exit) as a negotiating ploy to extract concessions the EU made crystal clear two years ago they couldn't provide. And most importantly, employers are already leaving and the economy is already contacting. Brexit may not turn out to be apocalyptic but there is absolutely no upside.
2
If you think it's bad in the US be grateful it hasn't reached the total dysfunctionality of the UK? Essentially the same thing though in terms of the functioning of government and a disregard for the political oversight of either Parliament or Congress?
5
Brexit isn’t going to happen, period. And that is a good thing.
1
I’m caught between the feeling that the British people and their Brexit arrogance deserve what is coming to them, and the knowledge that it would ultimately result in the UK becoming a fiscal pariah at the edge of the EU (the only way multinationals would still invest there as regional HQ, given the extra hurdles), which of course would hurt both the EU and British citizens.
One thing is for sure, if Brexit is stopped for some reason, the other EU countries won’t just put up with Britain going back to blocking near all initiatives for further integration where it is needed (like defense) or asking for exceptions and rebates all the time, comme si de rien n'était...
2
Britain for centuries survived and thrived without ceding authority and taxes to an army of bureaucrats in Brussels and will do so again despite all the hysterics from the Chicken Littles that the sky is falling and that the world will end.
2
And Rome was an empire for hundreds of years, until it wasn’t.
4
The departure of Great Britain from the European Union must happen now. There is no other way for the English to learn once and for all that they no longer rule the waves. And make no mistake this entire fiasco is the result of English ignorance and arrogance and in a few years time will lead inexorably to the dissolution of the United Kingdom. Once Scotland and Northern Ireland and even Wales learn (well, re-learn really) that the home counties matter more than they do it won't take long.
9
I'm sure the Brits appreciate the advice of a New York newspaper committee, but they got themselves into this mess and they'll get themselves out of it. And a valuable lesson will have been learned about letting the mob dictate statecraft.
6
The EU is bargaining from a position of fear and insecurity. They are refusing to offer a fair deal to the UK and instead feel compelled to be punitive.They are aware of how unpopular the EU is and they want to make it as onerous as possible to leave so that others will not be tempted. They are turning their union into a maximum security prison so that no one else will break out. This is a wrongheaded approach that will inevitably spell the disintegration of the Union. You cannot intimidate and bully free people into obedient compliance for long.
3
Nothing punitive about it. Theresa May's "red lines" would force a hand Brexit and a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The latter would violate the Good Friday Agreement.
1
America had a “Brexit” if you will 240 years ago. It was called the American Revolution. It was a battle against Great Britain, monarchy and Inequality.
What I’m more concerned about as an American, when it comes to Great Britain these days, is this so called “special relationship” between GB and America.
Great Britain seems to be sacrosanct in American political circles, business and the media. They are always the good guys and right in whatever they do. Their enemies are our enemies. We go to war for and with them. Would that have been the case 240 years ago?
This might sound corny but here in America in 2019 there is a daily dialog about this so called Brexit and the affairs of England but not a peep about the great revolution of 1776 anytime.
@Thomas, that's because it is not salient to this issue.
7
@jb
I realized that I was veering off the subject a little but wanted to take the opportunity make that point. In my view.
If a Russian interferance in the Brexit’s referendum campaign is proven than there is a legal argument for a revote. We should have done the same and order a revote prior to inauguration.
6
Extension for what purpose? More idiotic discussions among hapless but arrogant Brits? No way.
The editorial is a bit more knowledgeable than what one can read in UK papers but it misses a crucial point here.
The EU has parliamentary election on 26 May and the UK has to participate if it is a member at that time. Since EU citizens residing in Britain are also eligible to vote stripping them of that right is not legally possible. But the UK is making no preparations for these elections. This is not even being discussed.
So any extension can at best be for a few weeks technically and has to come with a workable plan politically.
It is currently not conceivable that the UK can come up with such a bipartisan plan and certainly not with a plan that offers a solution within a few weeks of extra time. The political stalemate in the UK rules out an extension and without that stalemate an extension wouldn't be needed.
Decision time is now and the options are clear: an orderly exit under the agreed terms, a chaotic exit or no exit at all.
7
Doomsday scenarios went out of vogue with Y2K. Even climate change is struggling with that problem.
I'm betting that EU trucks will be entering Northern Ireland as usual on March 30, with a strong probability that even the DUP will be reconciled to having an interim water border for the Customs Union in the middle of the Irish Sea.
The DUP wants a crash-out, a hard border, and to tear up the Good Friday Agreement. A return of the Troubles would suit them just fine.
2
Cynics want us to believe that there are individuals within UK government who are pushing for a "hard Brexit," for they are certain that it will lead to an economic upheaval in the country. They tell us these individuals are eager to live in "interesting times", ripe with opportunities to make big money. They have made much of their money during past market crashes and economic disasters, and are looking forward to a repeat, no matter what happens to the rest of the country!
After all, thanks to Saudi princes and Russian oligarchs, the London real-estate market has become too expensive, even out of reach of the old and new "British aristocracy". A 30% decline in London real-estate will force rich foreigners to sell and run away, while providing the right conditions for the new aristocracy to buy their own piece of blue jewellery (Faberge egg!) in the London Borough of Tower Hamlets.
One thing is for certain. A hard Brexit will eventually cause a decline in the English Premier League, as there will be less incentives for European footballers to play in English teams. That will cause much unhappiness among the British football funds, who constitute more 50% of voters, causing them to abandon the Conservative party en masse.
3
Pity the British boomer generation that 63 years after the U.K. finally lost any pretense to being an "Empire" in the sands of Egypt, it still dreams of Imperial glory. The sad reality is that the British economy is only slightly larger than that of California, but has almost twice California's population. The U.K.'s per capita GDP is about the same as Montana. It's actually lower than New Mexico's.
A big chunk of Britain's GDP today is generated by the financial service sector catering to Euro clients. Britain loses all that with Brexit. As emotionally satisfying as it may be to sock-it-to London's Wall Street, what happens when 25k employees suddenly find themselves on the dole? They can't move to the continent for a job anymore.
Kind of pathetic that after seven decades the British people still don't realize their Empire is ancient history. It's a little depressing to think that fifty years from now, Americans will still be jonesing for their crumbling Empire.
9
The idea of Brexit is a harking back to a former UK glory - when Britain had extensive colonies all over the globe.
Those days are gone. They are never coming back.
Mrs. May always wanted to be Prime Minister. She was selected as such to be the “Brexit ‘fall guy’” (despite the fact that she had been for Remain!).
And Fall she will! Because there is no chance of a better deal - the EU is done with the nonsensical British delusion that they are more deserving than any other EU nation. And there is now a good chance Britain will ‘crash out’ of the EU with no deal at all - the worst possible world of pain.
Why has Britain failed to investigate the role of Russia in their original referendum vote? Why have they continued to claim the “voters chose Brexit” - if they have no proof that the vote was untainted?
6
@TheraP - "Those days are gone. They are never coming back."
Never say, never! The following scenario is very realistic, as a version of it has already happened!
The US could be getting into a war against China and Russia, while Britain will be sitting on the sideline selling whatever US needs at extremely high prices and US ships, filled with gold, will be docking everyday at English harbours.
Then, after the US treasury becomes empty and much of the US is destroyed by Russian and Chinese blitz, by their intercontinental and ballistic missiles, and it has become militarily weak, then Britain enters into the war on behalf of the US and wins the day!
Then Britain takes back its "extensive colonies all over the globe" from the US and becomes Great Again!
Blame goes to the EU. On the eve of the referendum neither Merkel nor Juncker were willing to show any flexibility or offer any symbolic gesture to Cameron. Their messianic obsession with “ever closer union “ and intolerance for anything less will end as did the Tower of Babel project. Ever closer union may be a worthy goal but only if allowed to occur naturally over generations. The folly of allowing your most developed and democratic partner to reach the point where they want to leave speaks volumes about the current state of the EU. Perhaps Merkel wanted the U.K. to leave. And now the attempt to punish Britain for dering to leave is nothing short of pathetic and indicative of an unhealthy union. If the EU can’t become more flexible, pragmatic and attractive it will wither and die. In the meantime the lawmaking processes of the commission so attenuate the citizen from self rule which may work well when the commission is run by honest philosopher Kings, but when the bad or incompetent kings come along there will be no institutional checks and balances left to moderate the storm. The Brits may suffer a bit in the short run but will prosper over time. The real threat is how to keep the continental Europeans from getting back into their eternal hobby of savage internecine civil war.
2
One does wonder just how David Cameron sleeps at night...having run away from the responsibility of overseeing the referendum result that he instigated. It's hard to think of a more gutless and cowardly political act in recent times.History will not be kind to him and rightly so.
9
Of course, they have a plan. It's all brinkmanship. Yawn.
1
Oh, for the good old days of the British Empire, "when the ships were made of wood and the men were made of steel." All those peoples of all those colonies, all around the world, bowing their heads to their monarch and sending their taxes and tributes to Mother England.
Doesn't everyone want to turn back the clock?
The "Brexit" referendum was a terrible mistake, a poison pill wrapped in a package to make it look good. Now that the reality of a Britain outside of Europe has set in, it is time to think a bit before swallowing that pill and committing national suicide.
The Scots don't want it, Northern Ireland does not want a border with Southern Ireland, and Greater London does not want the financial capital to shift to Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris, or Brussels.
There is no good way for Britain to leave the European Union. Only bad ways.
Only lemmings rush to jump....
6
What May, Johnson and the rest of the feckless Conservatives should do now is further impoverish their citizens by attckcing New Amersterdam (now New York City), Hong Kong, Ottawa, Canberra and Wellington.
Rebuild the British Empire!
May can start by imposing a tax on British tea and sending agents around the world to collect the proceeds for the Crown. That will help finance the doubling of its naval fleet and army needed to regain its lost territories.
This would certainly be a great way divert attention away their Brexit fiasco.
And besides, if the Brits want to go back in time to find their lost sovereignty, why go back only to 1973?
Go all the way Brits!
2
This is how empires and democracies die - not with a bang but with a whimper. It starts with a bunch of guys (almost always guys), sitting around a table, and succumbing to group think. Whether it was the decision to bomb Pearl Harbor, invade the Soviet Union, invade sovereign Iraq on the flimsiest of excuses, or David Cameron's fear of UKIP prompting him to call this flawed referendum. And the discussion ends with no one having the courage or intellect to say, "What will happen the day after?"
So Britain is marching to the hangman's noose full of dissenting voices but no plan. And there won't be a mature plan unless Cameron and May admit that they went into this idiocy without thinking through the consequences. And Jeremy Corbyn needs to listen to the majority of his Labour Party rather than have stars in his eyes about being the next PM.
Barbara Tuchman wrote a good and under-appreciated book, "The March of Folly." Perhaps Britain's leadership can gain some wisdom from the stupidity of others.
5
Brexit is wonderfully horrible example of why direct democracy via a referendum is the worst way to decide complex matters of public policy.
4
It happens when politicians want to stay in power at the cost of their country and ignorant people support them. Brexit is a good example and many now regret voting for it. It only supports a failed government for a few months. All these populist movements support power hungry politicians to prolong their rule.
3
Political grid lock seems to be a characteristic of our times. We choose to be hypnotized by frivolous opinions; unpleasant facts are easily labeled "fake news". The statesmanship of wise political compromise in this environment is most improbable, whether it be in Britain, the US, Spain, Italy, or a long etcetera.
Suggestions that a deadline extension would do the trick for Brexit in this environment are wrong-headed. After approaching the abyss, many in the UK have come to realize just what they are up against when trying to dissolve 50 years of economic interdependence. Britain shot itself in the foot with Cameron's referendum. Now, Mme. May is aiming at the head in her game of chicken.
The Farrage/Johnson Make-Britain-Great-Again set of deliberate falsehoods, seasoned with xenophobia for spice, have become all-too-apparent to many who voted in delusions. Time for the Brits to have a well-informed referendum instead of mucking about like self-decapitated chickens.
4
Seldom has a nation needlessly done itself such harm. Those of us who are not as far along the road of xenophobia and recalcitrance are watching to see what lies ahead for Britain--and us?
4
Brexit shows the utter failure of Boomers to govern. They have wreaked the same havoc in Britain as they have done in the US. Good riddance.
2
Let the demise facing the Brits in their quest to reclaim their "sovereignty" serve as a warning to Trump supporters who seek to advance the interests of nationalism in the U.S.
4
Vote again and Brexit will be defeated. Trump backed it so It had to be a terrible idea to begin with. Brexit plays right into Putin's hands.
2
The daily display of British inadequacy to govern themselves is very beautiful to behold.
Who’s cheering now about the £350 M a week that is supposed to be injected into the British coffers?
Two things to note:
• Weeks after the vote, the British government farmed out the production of British passport to the French
• The Brexit box by preppers consists mostly of food like Chili Con Carne, Chicken Tila Masala
But sure, the Brexiteers think they can make it on their own.
Brexit is much like Trumpism—founded on a lie and hatred for immigrants.
I can see the stiff upper lip quivering from across the pond.
3
All of England remembers the 45th-Rebel-in-Chief saying "I would say that Brexit is Brexit".
The progeny of our ancestors who remained on their side of the pond -- also heard on 12 July 2018: "The people voted to break it up", and then Donny Reb ended that sentence with "I don't know if that is what they voted for".
On the potential for protests, the nation of Shakespeare was regaled with an election tale "Winning a State that Reagan Failed to Win". And after misidentifying Ireland as part of the UK, the American wizard grandly pronounced:
"I think that you have Brexit in the first place because of immigration".
So, all of America remembers "Baby Trump" being flown around London's skies. And, we're happy to have sent the original for a few days. The lead organizer of Britain’s “Stop Trump” protests said: “We need to show that we abhor everything that Trump represents: the bigotry, racism, anti-Muslim prejudice and misogyny.”
There. You do know the main problem with Brexit. A significant part of your population had their inclininations for fear and hate riled-up by opportunistic politicians WHO KNEW ABOUT AS MUCH ABOUT BREXIT - AS OUR PRESIDENT.
2
You cannot fully debate Brexit and the original referandum without accounting for the largely hateful, ignorant anti-immigrant wave sweeping Europe, and co-opted by Trump under the tutoring of Neil Farage. If all parties turned their frustration on plausible and coherent immigration policies the whole world would be better off. And remember, Europe's immigration crisis starts and ends with Syria. The Putin-Assad gang are at the heart of this, and everyone knows it.
2
Since the Irish border is one of the knottiest Brexit issues, what happens if Ulster dumps May and brings Labor to power? And who is to say that the tainted "Leave" vote is binding anyway? By March 29th, vote to ignore the results of the corrupted referendum, and simply continue in the EU, like adults....
1
Unlike the military threats of the past century, the biggest threat to democracies going forward are political buffoons like Trump and Boris Johnson making simplistic appeals on existential matters (climate change, healthcare, global alliances) to an ignorant and/or anarchistic base.
3
There is a scene that I imagine from time to time:
An angry Theresa May at the podium,
"I am not a slave. I don't have to live this daily dogfight. I quit! "
2
Putin and his henchmen have deftly manipulated his divisive ways as effectively in the UK as he has in the US.
I began to realize that PM May was a puppet of Putin when she
declared that another vote on Brexit by the British people would be an affrontry to democracy! Oh really , Prime Minister.....since when?
United we stand Divided we fall has never been more true than it is for the UK at this depressing and failing time of the once great
British Empire.
1
Love or the lack of it American style. In their rush to act more American Trump Style than the Americans the Brits have lost all reason. They Squabble, they Harrumph, to put it in very American terms they just stink up the room. And who is the target of all this abuse, a woman of course. Do any, now remember that Teresa May was against the Brexit. But like good Mommies every where she scooped up the bundle that Boris Johnson and his ilk left her and tried to make it work. It all reminds me of a term our so called conservatives like to use when they are cashing out their latest victim. Throwing working people out of jobs and out of houses, or even just destroying the environment. Creative Destruction really? There is absolutely no creativity involved. It's really more like mining, crush the bed rock of the system shake the rubble too see if any thing of profit falls out. Oh and then leave a big mess for somebody else to clean up or not. Honestly I don't see anything conservative about any of it.
5
The bizarre part of this editorial: describing Boris Johnson as the former foreign secretary, full stop.
Johnson is Britain's Trump, hair and all: he pretends to be a populist with bombast and theatrics, he lies, he encourages racism, and he preaches nihilist nonsense just to see if the foolish will follow him.
The Times is exactly right that an extension is not the worst thing - because Johnson is the man Tusk described: he exhorted his country to walk off a cliff without any kind of bridge or safety net, and promised them that the water a thousand feet below would be bloody brilliant. Waiting for a new leader to captivate Britain's attention in a more constructive way is a long shot, but it's worthwhile.
3
The English upper class trashed much of the world during Rule Britannia leaving behind a colonial legacy of chaos and conflict that still haunts us today.
English imperialism gave us the Middle East, much of Africa, cynically pitted Muslims and Hindus in India, deeply alienated China with the Opium Wars, inflaming Chinese nationalism and an antipathy towards the West borne of British racism, aggression and betrayal of sovereign honor.
British anti-semitism validated the cynical segregation of British and European Jews in British Palestine -- the English Solution -- oblivious to Arabs who lived in Palestine for a millennia.
In his cave in Shaanxi, Mao kept a book by Michael Collins, the Irish guerilla leader who routed the Brits from Ireland. Both shared a hatred of English imperialists.
How ironic then for the scions of Empire made rich and royal from colonialism, to now visit their arrogance, disdain, incompetence, inhumanity and upper class foppery on their own people.
The promise of New Labor under Tony Blair immolated in the Iraqi War, a British colonial legacy. And any hope of UK social progress was snuffed with the Tories seizing power and imposing austerity.
What followed was a Monty Python skit starring Cameron, Osborne, May and the English Trump, Boris Johnson.
In a bid to be a Great Nation again, English chauvinism opted for a "middling economy stuck in the Atlantic."
It was John Donne who wrote "No man is an Island entire of itself...".
5
As John Oliver so aptly pointed out last night, it's not the job of citizens to decide if it's best to leave the EU or not. It's the job of people with expertise (supposedly)--the lawmakers--to make those decisions. But they didn't. They dumped it on the electorate.
Here in the U.S. we have Congress that doesn't do its job. Well, we have the start of one now with the House being Democratic, but while Republicans ruled Congress, they were golfing--and the Senate still is. And now we have a baboon and sexual abuser for a president and a sexual abuser on SCOTUS.
Hey, 99.99%, you never, ever, ever, ever win with conservatism. Never. EVER. Please learn, although I fear it's already too late.
3
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/feb/18/several-labour-mps-set-to-quit-the-party-politics-live
Labour is splitting as we read this.
Corbyn, actually a Brexiteer, blocks May, actually a Remainer, at every opportunity.
The British voted. Some might regret their votes now. Some might wish they had voted.
Parliament wasn't even involved in the Referendum until it decided that nothing can happen without it's approval.
Parliament voted to get involved.
What a mess the MPs have made.
2
Brexit is a self inflicted wound that will accelerate the UK to a sad decline into a permanent second or third rate entity among nations.
The privileged "old boys" formed by the cruel insular and feral culture of English private schools have forced events to this stage the way hey formerly tortured insects, pets and each other as adolescents. And nary a one held accountable. Their delusions of grandeur have left a tril of shame across the history of the "Empire", from the genocide attempted in Ireland, to the massacres in Africa and India, to the Opium Wars, the Afghan Wars, to the Falklands, to the merciless fire-bombing of Dresden, to the bloody legacies of colonialism in modern Africa and the Middle East.
From the Raj, to Mountbatten, to Thatcher. And never held accountable. This degenerate class has owned the narrative, and the narrative is not reality based.
Cameron should be tried for criminal damage to his country. And there should be a review of the Blair years with similar prospects.
1
Nationalism is the pig in a poke that people just keep buying over and over, but Brexit might be one of those moments where the wheels come off. Hard to rally around the flag when your government can't figure out how to get medicine across the border for its own citizens.
3
The public sector in the UK says, “things have never been better since we joined.” The private sector says, “things have never been worse since we joined.” The socialists believe the social contract with your government requires that you only follow the laws legislated and do nothing else unless you are told. The conservatives believe you can do what you choose so long as it is not against the law. So, basically, just as Trump declared during his SOTU address, the US is not and never will be a socialist country, likewise, the UK declared they are not socialist as a result of their Brexit vote. Of course politicians, the public sector, want a “plan.” But the British has voted that a “plan” isn’t needed. They will fulfil their obligations to the letter of the law and decline to follow those that no longer apply.
...And thanks to Anthony Russo for the lede cartoon.
1
You describe Corbyn as a old fashioned left winger
I have yet to hear you describe Trump as an old fashioned right winger
They are two cut from the same cloth; ties to radical and fringe elements of society and ideas
Corbyn has actively supported left wing terrorist groups and anti Israeli groups who advocate violence
What exactly do you mean by “old fashioned socialist”?
1
It'll be interesting to watch but I don't see where the EU is threatened economically very much by Brexit. And even if it is a loser overall, there will be some big winners which usually has a big effect of politicians. Several of the countries have already gained in the financial sector and stand to gain a lot more. I'm sure every country in the EU would love to get airplane wing and engine manufacturing, and that is probably more important than that Airbus might suffer relative to Boeing. On the supply side it looks positive to me. On the demand side, Britain isn't a big market and the EU still has a big shipping advantage for commodities vs competitors. They'll lose some business in cars to Asia, I suppose, but tech is already mostly Asia and US.
Full disclosure: I'm a Remainer, and so voted. there has been so much claptrap spoken, so many lies broadcast, that the only sane way forward is simply call the whole thing off. Withdraw the Article 50 application to leave.
Be it noted that the UK has a unique set of special privileges within the EU, granted it over time to encourage it to stay. These would be retained without prejudice should the UK withdraw its application. the EU court has ruled that this is the case. However, should it in 5 to 10 years come crawling back, it will probably be (considered for) readmission - on harshly different terms than it now enjoys. Yes, enjoys.
'But the democratic voice of the people ...' demur some. They simply do not know the relevant law. Under UK law, referendums are advisory to Parliament - NOT binding on it!! Parliament retains that precious commodity - 'Sovereignty'!
So May could with perfect democratic credentials say, 'Look we really tried. But yo were so lied to that there's no way what you wanted, is attainable, so in the interests of damage limitation - we're staying put.'
Were Brexit a consumer good or service, sold as it was, it would be subject to criminal and civil penalties for fraud.
May is trying to enforce a fraudulent contract. All because the Conservatives, for over 45 years, have been unable to toilet train their Euroskeptic beasts. May is no Hercules to shovel out all that stuff.
The usual absent deity help the rest of us.
235
@Odyssios Redux
If lies during a campaign are enough to render the outcome void, wouldn't most elections be invalidated? Think of all the politicians who promise to improve healthcare (US or UK), increase employment and so forth, but then who fail to deliver. Sometimes the promises are so outlandish that even the candidates know (or should know) that they're false. Should such candidates be retroactively removed from office because they lied during the campaign?
It isn't as if those who voted to leave heard only one side. Yes, they were fed lies and misstatements by the "leave" forces, but those were countered by the advocates of "remain." As with any election, it is up to the voters to sort through conflicting positions. One would hope that they recognize "too good to be true" promises.
Sometimes they get it wrong. But, the outcome has to be respected.
6
The UK was taken into the EU without a referendum. In the mid-1970s there was a referendum to remain in or leave. Remain won. In the 2016 referendum I voted to remain (with reservations). Leave won. As much as I wish the Conservatives had not caused this mess, I am unsure about another referendum. There were lies told by politicians & the media, and people may not have understood the complexities -but if those were reasons to re-run the referendum we would have to re-run every parliamentary election! Also, many of the 52% who voted leave in 2016, did so because they were despondent and angry about being ignored by politicians and the elites who did not seem to be suffering from the Governments austerity policies. Another referendum would only prove & reinforce that. Ironically, multi-millionaire hard right brexiteers and newspaper owners have exploited these feelings in poor communities. About 100 hard right MPs are 'wagging the dog' and the May governments failure to challenge them (& risk a Party split) is taking the country to the cliff edge. The outlook does not look good. A general election may be the only solution to this dangerous fiasco.
2
I completely disagree that another referendum would confirm the result. All polling points that Remain would win in a rerun. All evidence points to Brexit being an utter disaster for our country. Yet another firm announced they are closing production in the UK (Honda). This is insanity to continue down a path that was no doubt influenced by Russian money and agents.
6
A populous with an overly simplistic view of what Brexit exactly means voted for it, and a PM who stood for it, only to learn (for those who mind the details) that it couldn’t be passed so simply and effortlessly. Perhaps such a referendum today would suggest that it was a bad idea in the first place and that the parliament should get back to work on how to get the UK back on a productive track; with no Brexit.
3
Both Great Britain with their Brexit decision and the US with the election of Trump fell victim to the manipulation of an external actor, Putin, but mostly to their internal demons, their fear and hatred of foreigners and of people who do not meet their definition of whiteness.
Both the British and the Americans proved Plato right, that an uninformed populace will always make the wrong decision and in these two cases it was not only disinformation but misinformation very smartly provided.
Now the damage has been done and it will take more that a generation in each country to righten the ship, if ever.
6
The problem is that dramatic predictions rarely pan out.
Witness our most recent Presidential election. Mrs. Clinton's supporters predicted the end of the world and/or Western civilization when Mr. Trump prevailed. While undoubtedly they remain terribly upset, the economy grows and no major wars have broken out. In short, the prediction of disaster was either wrong or grossly premature.
Britain made a go of it for years without an EU and I have every reason to believe that most British people will move forward to improve their individual and collective lot in the event of a hard Brexit.
The same is true for the other good people who will remain the EU.
People are much more adaptable than you give them credit for.
Life will go on.
4
You seem to be unaware of the losses the US has suffered in the State dept., foreign relations, environmental protectios and social safety that tooks years to build. But, sure, life will go on. ‘An expense os spirit in a waste of shame’. It is the quality of that life that’s being lost.
Welcome to the new era of politics. Scare enough of the ill-informed electorate into supporting your position is a path to victory.
It, of course, doesn't matter that the "victory" is sustainable, achievable, or beneficial to more than a tiny set of benefactors. It just matters that for those small yet powerful benefactors that you win to their sole benefit.
Lest not forget that the primary silent funder for the Brexit support campaign, Robert Mercer, is the very same person who silently supported the Trump campaign.
4
Cannot even begin to say how concerned I am for my country and my fellow citizens. I am hoping and praying for another referendum in which the question would be:
Do you want Britain to stay in the largest economic trading block in the world?
Yes.
No.
3
The adage that whatever can go wrong will go wrong, or beware of unintended consequences are going unheeded.
Before the UK joined the EU, their was extensive research, discussion and examination of all the various ramifications of joining. The vote by members of the public for Brexit shows the limitations and foibles of direct democracy.
2
"Rule Britannia" is history.
London is no longer a financial centre because the big banks have fled.
I wonder what the young people are going to do.
7
The Britsh experience with Brexit shows that trying to base complex public policy on a referendum vote without a detailed plan for voters to debate, analyze and evaluate leads to chaos. It is like buying a book based on its cover. Now that there is a plan based on what can be negotiated and citizens can "read the book" let them re-vote.
5
What is brazenly on display in this British version of Opera Buffa is the time-honored English elite's predilection of refusing to acknowledge reality. These are the people who drew lines on the map of various continents proclaiming countries and legal boundaries without a clue as to the reality on the ground (to this day, we are feeling the results of this hubris). Remember Lord Owen who came up with the "brilliant" plan to end the conflict in the former Yugoslavia which entailed forcing resettlement of the various ethnic peoples in Bosnia into separate enclaves?
Now, they are about to be hoisted on their own petard and reality still eludes them. What were they expecting? That the EU would give them a terrific deal so that other countries in the EU would also be tempted to leave? Does Parliament really expect Ms. May to magically come up with a deal different from the one the EU agreed to already and about which the EU basically said "Take it or leave it?" Do they really expect the world to give them great trade deals once they are cut loose? Someone should tell the know-it-alls that The Empire Strikes Back is a movie title, not reality.
11
I think it is safe to say that there will be no major referendums presented by governments of a democratic kind for the rest of our lifetimes.
If you want change you have to vote for it in the people you select to represent you. In that sense, the referendum in the U.K. Is a coup enacted by Putin’s agents in the U.K.
The affect of Brexit could easily have ripple effects world wide. Increased transaction costs will retard demand in one spot, and ripple outwards. It is like we are in July 2014, watching the drift into the abyss to begin with the guns of August, 2014.
This self destruction is of enormous glee to Putin.
The Tory party, like the GOP here, is treasonous. And Labor is likewise deeply flawed with Jeremy Corbin. Maybe if the Liberal Dems had not prostituted themselves to Cameron they might be in a position to represent a credible alternative.
7
Brexit without a plan is not the end of the world. Life will go on. Life has gone on without British colonial power over most of the world. Every empire has a rise and fall. The British would like to think that the sun never sets on the British empire and Brexit was an attempt to resurrect the British identity but original the EU deal was like a marriage of convenience without a prenuptial agreement and now the time has come to deal with an unplanned divorce.
Britain will survive Brexit as it has through centuries through blitz and bombardment and rebuild post Brexit. They don't need advice from the NY Times editorial board. After all Brexit as we know it is about British sovereignty.
1
As someone living in the U.S., I wrestle with understanding the Brexit crisis. Specifically, I wrestle with understanding how leaving the EU improves the lives of the people living in the U.K., relative to staying in the union.
Has membership in the EU become especially burdensome? Costly?
Classical economics tells us that reducing the transaction costs of doing business -- the labor and capital markets -- improves everyone's standard of living. The EU seemed to be set up to help the member states achieve that goal.
I don't know: I seem to be missing something as an observer.
3
@Larry Dickman
It was set up to that end. The project is now avowedly political rather than economic (although arguably always was political to an extent) and is about integrating the individual countries in the EU into an 'ever closer Union'. There are clear problems with this, as France and Germany (particularly the latter) are the most powerful players. The deflationary agenda (check out - for example - youth unemployment in Italy at 32%, or Spain at 31%) of the Euro has caused a great deal of turmoil outside Germany and yet it is shoring up the Euro that has become the primary political agenda of the EU. Frankly the Euro was an ill thought through project and smaller countries are paying the price (the bail out to Greece? Most of the bailout money goes to re-imbursing French and German banks on their reckless loans to Greece in the first instance). So: as a trading zone - you have a good point. But the current problems are essentially political.
1
I disagree with your view, which is clouded by identity politics.
The Spanish and Greek youth have the right to visit, live and work in Germany, the Netherlands or any other country with lots of vacancies.
This is essential. This is what makes it all fair.
Nobody talks about the youth of Alabama or West-Virginia, troubled by the strong US Dollar caused by the prosperity of coastal cities.
4
#10 Downing St. I stood in front of that green door while on holiday in London and could have knocked on the door to see if anyone would answer in a time when there were only two policemen watching the entrance. It was not till many years later that I understood the significance of this famous political address. It was taken from what is the political 10th house, the Capricorn degrees, on our wheel of time. For the first time in over 350 years Pluto is here in finalizing a political period of time now ending. Saturn catching up with Pluto also in 2019 at the winter solstice is our new political beginning signaled by the total solar eclipse on Christmas day. That no one planned for this does not mean it’s not happening, it just means we have been led astray for so long we have forgotten how to tell time properly.
3
@Joe Gilkey
Re astrology Joe, our fearless leader, Trump, has a Gemini Sun. Gemini, the one sign most apt to play fast and loose with the facts. The "trickster". Trump has Leo rising, and that is the one sign most prone to ego inflation and narcissism. The rising sign or ascendant being your "public face"....how people view you.
The Reagans had a staff astrologer to help them time events which aided in them realizing a largely successful presidency. I personally disliked Reagan and his presidency but they used astrology to great personal benefit. Thanks for your astute comments, Joe.
Brexit and Trump are both the result of lies and propaganda targeting "foreigners". Both international disasters were supported in great measure by Russian interference. We must make it a crime for companies to post on social media political propaganda arriving from or supported by offshore sources. This goes for Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc., etc...
7
@Jefflz
If there was social media interference and manipulation it must have been to get people to vote Remain as the young voters (ie the biggest users of social media and still gullible) were overwhelming supporters of remain whereas the over 50, technology inept, were overwhelmingly in favor of Leave. So perhaps there was “interference” but also interference in the narrative regarding social media.
Freedom doesn’t require a plan. It only requires walking away.
2
@KBronson
Which is fine as long as you define the future or the destination. That's like saying "Brexit means Brexit" (as they did). It is meaningless. Remember that originally the referendum was really an attempt to prevent the internecine fighting within the Tory party when Johnson, Gove et al tried to force out Cameron. He tried to call their bluff and they all lost. Cameron resigned and Johnson and Gove ran away when they "won". Their lack of any plans for the aftermath were exposed and we now have the mess that exists in the UK. This was originally simply a battle between egos and a power grab and it has continued until the present day.
1
@Tony N
When politicians give the people a chance to grasp freedom, it is never for that purpose but a unintended co sequence of some power play. That is how political and civic evolved in Britain in the first place.
The people’s objective in voting for it are a different matter altogether. They wanted free of the Eurocrats.
The destination of freedom is freedom. If you define a destination, then you give up the freedom of the people to that vision. The economic destination of a free economy is not set in a ministry but in the ambitions, plans, successes, and failures of a million different independent actors buying and selling.
Freedom is messy. Always has been. It is worth it. I greatly respect the British people for so choosing.
@KBronson
Only when you have got nothing to lose. Not the case with Brexit.
The brexit- argument since long escaped the realm of normalcy and reality. Some may say the attitude of the British PM is to be considered as tough and persevering, the drive I see is 'angst', rigidity and irrationality.
I sincerely fear the English political class is the victim of a mass-psychosis.
3
It is amusing to see that the major stumbling block to approving Teresa May's Brexit plan is Ireland. Yes, Ireland! The gift that keeps on giving. How many British governments floundered on the "Irish Question" during the 19'th century? How many British soldiers and how much British treasure was spent keeping the Irish down during WW1? And now, British conservatives are engaged in an act of hubristic self immolation over, you guessed it, Ireland. It's almost enough to make one wish that Queen Elizabeth I and Oliver Cromwell had stayed on their own side of the Irish sea. But then, a glorious political tradition of periodic governmental ruin would not have started, and we all know how much the English love tradition.
9
Yes! Why not return all of Ireland’s former sovereignty, by giving up Northern Ireland?
But we know that they want their cake and eat it too: leave the EU but retain access to its market; claim freedom from other governments while hanging on to the notion of the United Kingdom, which includes a Scotland that would like more autonomy... not to mention their ‘Commonwealth’, even if Australia and Canada are fully independent nations.
Sadly, the long term trend here is Great Britain to Britain to Little Britain which in reality is England. The parallels between America First and Brexit are obvious. But there are also key differences. Faith-based issues are absent from Brexit. Similarly, upper-class, nostalgia-based "sport", is absent from MAGA. The latter is critical since it is English culture that has contributed to much of the toxicity on the 'leave" side. It is led by highly educated, clever and privileged Conservative politicians like Boris J and Jacob RM who see everything as a game in which pragmatism and reality are second to wit and eloquence (it starts with debates in the Oxford Union). Given their pedigree, their antics are tolerated and often even admired by the rest, whereas the same crass and irresponsible behavior by anyone lower down the class totem pole would be condemned for what it is. Those who look up to them include many who have vague, often second-hand memories of the Empire, where they maintained a certain social status and which they think can somehow be rekindled in today's vastly different World. Thankfully, we in the US, unencumbered by nostalgia and a deeply entrenched social pecking order, can see Trump and his grifters for what they are.
6
I'm a Brit, and I'm breaking my heart over this.
When I was a kid, my Dad took me wandering all over Europe - this was a few years after the end of WWII - so I got to see the aftermath of a civil war. I'm an emotionally committed European.
Then my life had me working with governments and policy wonks all over the world. I know what good government looks like. This isn't it. Currently I'm working in and out of Europe for a transnational business; they're prosperous, they're competent, and when they come into a meeting they don't sort themselves into groups by nationality. I want to hang my head in shame.
I feel so bloody powerless. All I can do now is be thankful that I don't have children - what a world to leave them! - and give my best to my brothers and sisters in Europe, who uniformly grieve at what they see.
17
@HoraceTheCatFrench
Just FYI, typical French name for male cats is Maurice and for female cats is Felix!
I'm up to a point in my life where I can't help but wonder if things like Brexit and the Trump fiasco need to happen periodically to wake people up and make them pay attention.
I've never seen such political activity in my life and I'm heartened by it. You can't expect a dinosaur to take it's impending extinction quietly. It's bound to want to eat everything in sight in an attempt to save itself.
6
Brexit voters in the UK and Trump voters in the US have much in common. Both wanted major changes to the status quo, especially relating to relationships with foreign countries, and didn't seem to care what sort of collateral damage those changes wrought. In the US we've seen some control over extreme positions based on our separation of powers doctrine (although laws passed by Congress years ago giving our President special powers have gotten in the way of those separations). In the UK, since Brexit was a vote of the people with no express plan how to do it, they're kind of stuck with a hard brexit at the end of the day. The EU does not want to let them have free trade without considerable baggage in order to deter other countries from doing the same
2
Blame goes to the EU. On the eve of the referendum neither Merkel nor Juncker were willing to show any flexibility or offer any symbolic gesture to Cameron. Their messianic obsession with “ever closer union “ and intolerance for anything less will end as did the Tower of Babel project. Ever closer union may be a worthy goal but only if allowed to occur naturally over generations. The folly of allowing your most developed and democratic partner to reach the point where they want to leave speaks volumes about the current state of the EU. Perhaps Merkel wanted the U.K. to leave. And now the attempt to punish Britain for dering to leave is nothing short of pathetic and indicative of an unhealthy union. If the EU can’t become more flexible, pragmatic and attractive it will wither and die. In the meantime the lawmaking processes of the commission so attenuate the citizen from self rule which may work well when the commission is run by honest philosopher Kings, but when the bad or incompetent kings come along there will be no institutional checks and balances left to moderate the storm. The Brits may suffer a bit in the short run but will prosper over time. The real threat is how to keep the continental Europeans from getting back into their eternal hobby of savage internecine civil war. Remember, the founding of the EU was not about trade per se, but rather keeping the peace on the continent.
1
The list of exceptions for Britain is/was endless. I’m not even talking about the infamous rebate on their membership. Having them in the EU was a never ending pride swallowing siege. It was never enough, not even having the financial center of a currency zone they weren’t even in.
Many Europeans are not sorry to see them go, a sentiment I do not share but understand.
It would have been better to let Britain experience being a mid sized country for longer before they joined the EU, to puncture their illusions of grandeur in today’s world.
If sowing their wild oats now will make Britain a better partner in 10 years, it might not be all bad.
11
@HEP
If you join a club you accept the rules and regulations of that club. If you leave, you don't get to change those rules and regulations to suit yourself. The Brexit supporters seem to think that the EU owes them whatever they think fit. The EU simply says that "this is what you signed up to, now carry that out".
4
How is the EU to blame for the result of the referendum called for by David Cameron? The UK asked for this , and they’re getting what they asked for.
5
The disaster is already begun. London is being denuded of their financial clout in Europe. Brexit and the Trump election foretell the course of future elections. Angry voters voting for the most damaging braggadocio over civil politics. One could add the Hillary Clinton campaign had major disqualifying aspects that Trump didn't have. Brexit was not proposed by David Cameron because he wanted it to happen but to humiliate the far right conservatives. Now with the country inflicting stringent austerity on itself it is about to be on a course of severe retrenchment.
1
@c harris
Can I remind you that the "Austerity" plan was inflicted on the UK population before the Brexit vote and was probably a major factor in the referendum result. People were fed up with seeing the Tory government lining their own, and their friend's pockets, and destroying much that the populace held dear.
2
My intuition tells me that globalism—via continued international cooperation—is the only way forward if we expect, or at least hope for, a brighter future for humanity. These continuing national and global divisions among social, political and economic lines are frustrating and depressing. My mind’s eye can envision a prosperous tomorrow for the vast majority of the world’s people, but only if we can move beyond these largely petty squabbles. Much of this will begin with enlightening the people in the realms of math, science and the humanities.
5
Globalism, or trade dependencies if you will, is very effective at keeping world peace.
The best example is energy trade between the EU and Russia. It even allowed the EU to expand into many former Warsaw Pact countries on Putin’s watch, with only a small setback (Crimea).
The biggest downside is that free global trade produces multinationals so powerful that corporate tax rates are falling worldwide, as companies pit countries (or States) against each other for investments. And of course that both production and low end services move to lowest wage countries.
The best way forward is to 1/ handle corporate taxation at the highest level (harmonizing EU corporate tax, 101% federal tax penalty on US State/City corporate tax incentives). Threats to leave or divest from the US or EU market are not credible.
2/ Tax global supply chains to match their carbon/environmental footprint. Tax free jet fuel for example is not sustainable, it no longer makes sense to fly in apples from New Zealand or beans from Kenia in the winter, etc. This will bring some manufacturing jobs back, whilst not going in Trump-like global antagonism.
2
@Andre Hoogeveen, Globalism is the only way forward for a brighter future? Don’t say that out loud in France, or a crowd of gilets jaunes will appear to stone you to death.
Fwiw, I agree with you.
2
Ah well. It appears let ‘er rip is the plan. The wrong wing in little england is going to be real men as a result, and free men everywhere will come and prosper within its shrinking borders.
1
I thought references to Armistice Day generally represented the end of a disaster, not the beginning of one. The 11th Hour seems misapplied in this context.
That said, I am wondering what a hard Brexit might portend. The outcome is most likely more bad than good. However, will it really be that bad for anyone outside of Britain? A middling economy now alone in the Atlantic as they say. I'm curious.
There are two competing ideas rolling around in my head. On the one hand, I was aware of the housing bubble but completely underestimated the risk. I knew things would get bad but I definitely didn't foresee quite how bad.
On the other hand, I'm also reminded of the post-recession inflation hawks. How premature austerity prolonged and worsened the crisis and ways still echoing around the world today. And for what? The austerity people were completely wrong about inflation both then and now. The reasonable voices in the room told them so.
So where on the spectrum does Brexit fall? Are we really in for a crash landing or is this more like taking a hard jump over the curb? Britain certainly could have made things easier for themselves. Something like putting on a seat belt.
However, I'm not convinced one way or the other how things will turnout exactly yet.
This is only one of the most recent instances in history that prove that endless repitition of the Big Lie will, in most cases, sway voters to cast their ballot in favor of the liers, witness Johnson, Farage et alia. Although it has incontestably been proved that their arguments in favor of Brexit were malicious lies, no legal action has been taken against them. In fact, Boris became Foreign Minister and Farage is still a member of the EU parliament, well remunerated and eligible for a hefty pension. Brexit will benefit no one and instead damage everyone. For that, the Big Liers should be given the privilege of serving time in one of Her Majesty's prisons.
7
I work with someone who grew up in mainland China and who always maintains that democracy is overrated.
With Trump in the White House and Brexit... I have given up arguing with him.
7
@Engineer, yes, but unlike China, we don’t force prominent international executives to come home and then make them “disappear”. Democracy still has enough advantages for me to choose it over the alternatives.
3
@Engineer
Much better to have the state rule your lives. Just don't ever think about criticizing it. With the Chinese, reeducation camps are not just a theory. Ask the Uighurs. Ask the Falun Gong. And now millions of ordinary Christians are being persecuted. Do you really think the principle of representative democracy is overrated because Trump was elected? You would prefer a prison cell or a noose?
@Engineer
Then why is your friend here and not in China?
No extension. The only honorable thing for May to do is to declare that she and her government have failed to find a Brexit that meets the needs of the British people, and that she is withdrawing the Article 50 notice fully, resigning as PM, and asking for an election. Let the two main parties fight it out with detailed policies and let them try and convince voters to vote them in and restart the clock - or not. But for May, she and her government have failed and it is time for a new one, not a new try by her.
9
Democracy spoke; give it a chance to speak again. Now that people have an idea of what Brexit means, maybe they can democratically change their mind.
8
The idea of Britain “negotiating” its E.U. exit is flawed.
When you leave a club, you don’t negotiate your exit—you’re just out. No longer a member.
The E.U. offered what they offered and Britain gets what they get. The E.U. cause is helped by a difficult (though not economy-crushing) Brexit, and perhaps harmed by a smooth and easy one.
The presentation of the issues to British voters at the time of the referendum was ridiculously naive, and one can only assume that was deliberate.
Even so, in a Democracy, do you call for another vote because the losing minority doesn’t like the outcome?
Or do you accept the will of the people and muddle on?
It’s the muddling on that we’re seeing now.
11
Not sure why y'all are so vexed about Brexit as it's not going to happen. The British Prime Minister has engineered a situation where there are only two options for MPs to consider before March 29th when the UK is legally obliged to exit the EU.
The first is her negotiated EU Withdrawal Agreement (WA) that has already been overwhelmingly voted down by both Leavers and Remainers in parliament because it basically ensures continuing full membership of the EU (Leavers hate) but without any influence (Remainers hate).
The second option is to delay leaving beyond March 29th (requires a law change I believe) either indefinitely (staying in) or until parliament agrees to the first option (staying in). There is no momentum in Parliament to pursue a 'second referendum' because both parties consider it political suicide to visibly ignore a democratic vote by UK citizens.
Mrs May has 'played a blinder' on behalf of those that want to remain in the EU although there is a tiny chance that at the last minute she will be unable to execute either of the two options and the UK simply exits the EU without a deal on March 29th. If she succeeds, as expected, to avoid having to leave the EU she then has to address the tricky issue of facing the very unhappy 17.4 million Brexit voters at the next general election.
3
It is clear to most that a second referendum is required. The first was promoted with false promises, no plan, and Russian meddling. The Brexit plan that was soundly rejected is much better than the "hard exit" that now threatens great and lasting harm to Britain.
4
As an observer from afar, what has astonished me is the degree to which the Remainers and the critics of May's agreement within the Brexiteers fail to recognize that any deal made MUST be agreeable to the EU.
That puts enormous constraints on what is possible, and the push for "something better" is as destructive to the process as any alleged incompetence on the part of May and her government.
Corbyn and Labor, allegedly in support of Brexit, have done nothing to make Mays job easier, and a great deal to undermine her position with the party with which she must negotiate.
Talk about putting politics ahead of nation while wrapping oneself in the flag? Corbyn has become one of the most visible practitioners of that odious tactic.
5
@The Owl The deal has already been made. It was voted down in Parliament thanks to her OWN party.
If Theresa May has her way it is likely to be a no deal Brexit, if the Parliament succeeds to persuade the Brussels to extend the deadline beyond March 29 and finds some way to push second referendum, it will end the uncertainty the UK is confronting for the past two years.
1
There will always be people who make a killing in chaos—and therefore do everything in their power to foment it. During the U.S. financial crisis, we came quite close to watching some of our largest industries and institutions collapse. Many “experts” urged no intervention—this was how capitalism works.
If that had happened it would have been akin to MBS’s “ reforms” that simply held opponents under duress and forced one of the largest transfers of wealth in Saudi history. But in America’s case, it would not be just the transfer of wealth from one corrupt entity to another, but millions of unwitting shareholders and employees who would have been fleeced as well-loosing their pensions and their jobs. While the U.S. recovery had its flaws, President Obama nonetheless managing us through resisting those calling for free market collapse.
Now Republicans have found a new mechanism in Donald Trump to kill what they see as the regulatory beast that hinders unadulterated capitalism. Brexit and Trumpism have much in common. Both are supported by masses of people who fail to see how they are being manipulated. Both countries will suffer for generations from its effects.
And, the big winners will be those who thrive off the chaos including of course Vladimir Putin, who has worked so hard to support both. The technology age has given him the resources to realize his heretofore unthinkable dystopian vision.
8
"It may be time to stop the doomsday clock and start over."
That's cute. People have been raising this particular idea for some months now and it is getting no traction. Brexit is a cliff Theresa May is bound and determined to lead Britain over. God save them all.
2
@Davina...
Brexit is a cliff that the voters of the United Kingdom determined was best for the UK.
Can you tell us what it might be that you have against democracy other than the vote went against your chosen path?
Please be specific in your reply.
This is the greatest act of self destruction. Purely brought by the people of the UK in a process that was tainted by Russian interference. Their obligations to the EU were minimal given the benefit they got. When Thatcher started privatizing, many essential services ended up in foreign hands. Were they OK with that? Did they rise up in anger? Don't recall that they did. If they were longing for the good old days of Rule Britannia, sorry mates this is right down the tubes.
4
In The Federalist no. 1, Alexander Hamilton wrote: "It seems to have been reserved to the people of this country, by their conduct and example, to decide the important question, whether societies of men are really capable or not of establishing good government from reflection and choice, or whether they are forever destined to depend for the political constitutions on accident and force."
In Britain, the question is being answered in the negative. And in "this country," the US -- reflection and choice, or accident and force?
Credit for the quotation goes to Jill Lapore; it states the central question in her "These Truths: A History of the United States."
6
Theresa May has led the United Kingdom through outdated re-used vocabulary like a lawyer pulling old files. Brexit is merely a cover-up for a neo-mercantilist policy which has devastated the functionality of the British economy, a post-WWII "Buy British" appeal to toothless veterans who are tail-end in the new millenium.
To boot an economy on a diet of mutton and port is to boot it in the past. It is a pity that May used her legal strategy to call upon old papers and rephrase in unworkable language that which never came to be, a British exit from the European Union. She has increased instability in the post-Thatcher and post-Blair period by allowing that farm products and other country produce like Yorkshire sausage are more important than the economic sectors which lay the future.
I honestly hope that the United Kingom stays in the Union and believe that it is still a possibility, that the work of groups like Cambridge Analytica and other components close to her government will be seen as unpleasant encounters with British espionage in back alleys rather than substantive evidence of new policy.
Brexit is about reading labels like a housewife. If that is May's perception of HM Queen Ellisabeth II perhaps it is time for a new kitchen not furbished by May.
3
This only benefits a sliver of ‘big business’ in the UK and of course, Vladimir Putin. The UK is going to break up for sure after Brexit with an assured second referendum in Scotland, and the weakened remnants of the EU will be less of an adversary to the hostile Russian government. Thanks Theresa and Boris!
12
It's amazing how little of the EU the British understands. They say they're "oppressed" by the Brussels, even though they directly elect members to the European Parliament. The EU didn't force the UK to use the Euro, letting them keep the Pound. The EU doesn't have them in the Schengen Area, free movement without a passport. The EU help bring peace to Northern Ireland. EU laws and regulations are laden with asterisks which make exceptions and accommodations for every country including the UK. The two biggest ironies of the UK's rhetoric about the EU is that the biggest advocate for Brexit, UKIP's Nigel Farage, was a member of the European Parliament and receives benefits from the EU for his time there. The second irony are the British retirees who live in Spain and receiving free healthcare who supported Brexit. They're oblivious to the fact their life is possible because of the EU. The EU should be as tough and punitive on the UK as possible.
5
When human fears are confronted mans worst characteristics are revealed. Whether fear of a challenge to be a great people, or a referendums call to independence.
The debate is actually centuries old, much like our Federalists versus the Anti-Federalists and embodied in the same parties today with different names, Democratic and Republican, Labor and Tory, respectively. After seeing the loss of freedom due to the insidious growth of our own Federal Government, I am rooting for the Anti-Federalists this time.
3
There is a plan. The Steve Bannon plan. The International Mafia plan. Destroy, Destroy, Destroy.
This is what inherited/stolen wealth gets us. Destruction.
14
To all Brits that feel that withdrawal from EU was going to restore Great Britain to glory, I can tell you from this side of "the pond" that Making America Great Again isn't working here either.
It is however working out better than planned in Putin's Moscow.
Ok, we have a President who openly admits to believing Putin over his own intelligence teams. Trump is pretty much doing everything that Putin might want him to do both domestically and internationally. I have to imagine that Putin cannot be more pleased with the results.
But Britain doesn't have a Trump like figure or at least so it seams. But yet, I don't for a moment believe that Putin is not absolutely thrilled at how well this is all playing out. And yet nobody in the pro-Brexit world seems to pay attention to this tangent.
What is clear both here in the US and in Britain is that in addition to Putin, there are citizens in positions of power that have tremendous "checker like" self interests in the negative trajectory of their nation's vectors that happen to coincide with Putin's "chess like" strategies. The question is whether these players are traitors.
I for one say they are. Donald and Boris care very little for their citizenry and the nation that they claim to love and serve. They are in it for themselves and are complete sell-outs, albeit very effective sellouts.
Just as I hope that enough Americans wake up by the 2020 elections, I would hope that Brits wake up but their clock, as noted here, is running.
12
@It Is Time
Yeah I'm sure Putin is just overjoyed with that new $100B in NATO spending and having Germany pressured to stop buying natural gas from them. Working out so well for Putin huh? The fact you believe this yourself is bad enough, that you think you can convince others totally beyond all norms.
of course it doesn't make sense, is stuck in a deepening rut, and has no resolution on the horizon: the whole Brexit project was a right wing populist tactic from the start, not any kind of plan. what are the positive objectives supposed to be, specifically? from our shores, it looks like nothing more than a way to rile up the already alienated voters on the right and to castigate continental laborers in Britain who take advantage of the disparity between Eastern European economies and the UK to undercut native Brits, eg, a political stunt without thought to real world ramifications.
3
The recent piece on Europe's dwindling middle class hasen't sunk in or is it so unbelievable the welfare states are failing a large percentage of their people. Sure it would be nice not to worry about medical bills but when you're constantly about to be laid off or underemployed it gives an individual a negative attitude. Harder when a remote govement doesn't know you exist. To quote the Greatful Dead "Man does to live on bread alone."
You can see what the Social Democrats did with the Amazon. It didn't meet the purity test and besides it might have been only 10 or 15 thousand jobs not 25 as promised. Can't fool them. Not to let the Republicans of the hook. During the great recession they agreed with Social Democrats. The auto companies should have failed. Forget about jobs. Forget about workers. You wonder why Brexit when they all can learn to write code?
1
@JoeG Actually, the so-called "welfare states" in Europe are doing well, It's the more free-market economies that are straggling.
4
@HKGuy
"The fireman screams and the engine just gleams."
.
Brexit has been constantly dumped on British hands, as if a sovereign country dares choose its own path apart from the diktat of Brussels. Instead of negotiating with a sovereign country, the EU has endangered peace in Ireland in the name of its own theology of "borders" (as if its Schengen-free zone provides such internal security). Let's admit that, from the beginning, Brussels' strategy has been to make this process so painful and distasteful so as to deter any other country from attempting to leave. Go, Britain: you have a history of being a real country, stop fearing the Donald Tusks of the world.
2
@JOHN
Please give just one example of a 'diktat from Brussels'. Just one. Bearing in mind that the UK held a veto.
As for the 'theology of borders' the big point of Brexit was precisely for the UK to take back control of them. It is up to Brexiteers to explain how you can keep the Irish border open post-Brexit. Please do so.
1
Brexit was totally based on lies and fear mongering! Brexit is actually impossible because a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland can never be accepted, but moving that border to between Northern Ireland and the rest of UK is totally unacceptable! Free movement of people is an integrated un-removable part of the internal free EU market, so UK will never be allowed free trade with EU without accepting totally free movement of EU citizens in to UK! Britain leaving EU is just as impossible as if California would leave USA!
6
What England is doing in regard to Brexit reminds me of South Carolina, where I used to live, during the debate on secession. One prominent lawyer when asked about it replied "South Carolina too small to be a country, too big to be an insane asylum".
16
The United Kingdom is America's closest and most important foreign ally.
That the people of the British Isles have taken leave of their socioeconomic political diplomatic military commonsense interests and values at the same time as the citizens of their former American colonies must be either divine supernatural judgment or malign natural incompetence and malfeasance.
My earliest known European American ancestor was born in London in 1613. He married in Lancaster County Virginia colony in 1640 where he died in 1670. My white and free- person of color ancestors fought on the side of the rebels during the American Revolution. I am am Anglophile by nature and nurture.
" Two people divided by a common language." Winston Churchill on the difference between his paternal British heritage and his maternal American ancestry.
3
The two countries took leave of their senses aided and abetted by Putin and his minions.
I spoke with several UK business executives before the Brexit vote and was surprised to hear them strongly supportive. Frustration with the Brussels bureaucracy had soured them.
But it was a vote of frustration - not of careful thought - and outcome surprised most. They now dread the consequences.
In a now leaderless UK, someone has to have the courage to stand up and say "Stop - this is crazy!"
10
Faced with the coming apocalypse of global warming, America with the Republican Party & Europe with the Brexiteers are both pushing toward disintegration as a fix. America is already several different countries & Europe is divided by language. It’s probably too late for unity, anyway.
1
@JGSD
Europe is divided by language.
Europe is not divided by language. It is united through cultural diversity. And that’s the way we like it. But if the Brits want to Brexit, then goodbye and good luck to them. They will however not be allowed to endanger the peace, security, and social stability of Ireland while pursuing their Peter Pan fantasy. It's been a hard lesson, and they are frightfully slow-learners, but the pennies are dropping.
And yes. Europe has crazy places like Hungary and Bulgaria, but you've got West Virginia and Texas.
2
The argument against holding another referendum; ie that it would flaunt democracy, is ludicrous. But, oh what a gamble! Those in favour of a second referendum base their argument on the belief that a second vote would find in favour of "remain", and everything could then just calm down and return to normal. But can you imagine the chaos if a second referendum produced the same result as the first?! What a mess! David Cameron, whose idea this was, is surely finding it difficult to sleep at night.
3
The people of the UK are being marched across a plank and they have No champion No leader who will come to their aid? Why?
It is possible that the Parliament is compromised. Like the American Republican Party Labor and Tory May both be paralyzed or Corbin May be determined to destroy the Tories for good?
May is just a dupe.
If there is no referendum on the grounds that the Brexit referendum is sacrosanct rational government will have given way to madness.
Where are the Democrats on this unfolding catastrophe? In the name of democracy the anti democracy anti Eu anti NATO coup by propaganda will jeopardize the west.
Brexit is identical to climate change. All of the evidence screams disaster. Complacency will crush us all.
Mueller has called the agents of Cambridge Analytica, the weaponizer of FB profiles. Is there time left for Mueller to rescue the free world? Is Brexit and the election of Trump a consequence of Russian cyberattacks?
4
Time for May to quit and let the likes of Boris Johnson fight it out with Jeremy Corbyn as to which party leads Britain over the cliff. As for the British voters who, apparently, still want Brexit or ovinely accept their government's refusal to hold a second referendum on the matter, they seem to be as clueless as Trump's "base."
5
The plan should be to recognize that Brexit was designed to fan the flames of hate, to weaken Putin's enemy and to divide Great Britain from the rest of Europe.
The plan should be to toss Brexit into the sea, to call in Putin's ambassadors and tell them they will never win this war. The plan should be to stop cooperating with the Putin stooge Trump, and unite Ireland, Scotland, and England once again against a terrible enemy, Russia.
Perhaps Putin will win this war after all, without firing a shot.
Hugh Massengill, Eugene Oregon
7
The Trump supported Brexit vote and its repercussions are classic examples when no forethought is given to what happens when a big change is contemplated. Not the US is any better off as a minority of our voters pencilled in Donald Trump and look where that has brought us.
2
I would be hard pressed as an American Citizen to give advice to Britain, or for that matter, any country when OUR COUNTRY elected and apparently still support an ole fashioned “Medicine Man.”
What the U.S. did early on, was to realize “Strength in numbers.” Our civil war could have broken us, but instead, made us stronger. I see the EU the same way. Brexit was a disaster from the very beginning because neither side apparently knew anything about reality. If you’re in a boat and you’re approaching a very dangerous waterfall, you have two choices: pull your boat into an eddy or plunge into a deadly free fall where the best you can hope to achieve is disaster but still alive with broken bones that will never heal.
6
I think both sides of the Atlantic may benefit from a higher level of skepticism when presented with fantastical visions of the economic benefits of xenophobic agendas presented by obvious charlatans and political opportunists.
7
Isn't it obvious? Another democratic referendum.
This time, informed by the truth of the reality of the prospect.
2
@WhyArts...
And, if the results are the same, are you going to call for a third, a fourth, or even a fifth vote.
Brilliant! Absolutely BRILLIANT ! !
All democracies should work that way.
@The Owl
Nope. If the results are the same, the people of Britain deserve what happens.
If you're Sir Jim Ratcliffe, Britain's richest man and major backer of Brexit what do you do when you get the vote you paid for: announce last week you're moving to Monaco...for lower taxes, of course!
The current state of decision-making and governing by info commercial slogans...who could ever have guessed that wouldn't work out...well, those with the money/power to practice: you can't do as I do, but you must do as I say, for your own good, don't you know.
5
Is there any way to "short" the British economy? Perhaps the Conservative Party already did this so they can make bundles of EUROs and say they stayed the course at the same time.
Why not have another vote , this time informed. And I thought Trump was incompetent.
6
The whole Brexit process is what happens when a political party puts party above country. Cameron launched the referendum to solve an internal feud in his Conservative Party, and now May is steering the Brexit negotiation having in mind only the interest of the Tories. I think you know how you translate May in American English (hint: McConnel)...
5
@Rikos Unfortunately, Her Majesty's Opposition is also playing party politics over country. Corbyn is a closet leaver who would rather make a move for 10 Downing in the wake of a no-deal disaster than do the right thing.
1
The Government and media are largely ignoring the simplicity of the situation for their own means, the purest, simplistic truth is this: Article 50 paragraph 3 states ALL Agreements and Treaty’s between EU and UK shall END on 28/3/2019, UNLESS a Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is signed and ratified by both parties. That WA signed December 2017 lists two choices a plan which is complex, but was drawn up with UK Negotiators and is almost universally disliked, or Leave with No Deal and trigger Article 50, there is NO midway scenario, that is the Legal situation. Fanciful talk of trade deals with EU, US, Japan etc are currently flights of fancy, without a WA the UK leaves the biggest trading block on the planet to become the sole... yes the sole country in the world to trade WTO Regulations... with absolutely NO trading deals with any trading blocks at all.
3
@Alan Harvey . Well they have a few trading deals ready to go - Faroe Islands agreement is all locked up (really).
Brexit has, from the very beginning been an exercise in utter futility.
Using a definition from the Harvard Negotiation project’s Getting to Yes’, the politicians and their followers were only focused on a single position “We want to go back to being a unitary and independent power’ There was no consideration give to what interests such an exercise would deliver on.
The reason most heard now to the question “why Brexit” is the childish one of “That’s why”
Unless the politicians and a Brexiteers face up to the stark reality that a no deal Brexit will be an utter disaster for the UK - despite all their Churchillian responses - the better
4
There will be some confusion, but the market, like life, will find a way to sustain the people without government managing and regulating its every move! Surprise!!!
1
@Chris
We will see.
No country in the world trades on WTO rules alone. The UK will be the first to choose to do so.
The head of the WTO said, it will be bad for the UK. But what does he know?
3
@Two in Memphis My thoughts exactly!
There will be no second referendum, and no extension of the deadline. The UK will crash out of the EU on 29th of March. But only for bad reasons, chief among these the fact that Mrs May does not want to resign. As long as she stays, she's an hostage to the DUP and the Brexiteers of her on party. They will only settle for a hard Brexit, and are using Mrs May as a puppet, they pull the strings in the background and watch as the seconds go by.
Then, after 29th of March, once the debacle is visible to all but the blindest, Brexiteers wil put all on the blame on others: Mrs May, Labour, a vindicative EU...
3
Jeremy Corbyn and that raging racist and xenophobe Boris Johnson are splitting the role of Mitch McConnell in the Brexit farce. They have no principles whatsoever and are willing to do anything to ensure that they triumph -- solely for their own political gain.
Theresa May never wanted the UK to leave the EU. She got stuck with the task of negotiating the Brexit deal when it was dumped in her lap after David Cameron created the fiasco with his Leave-Remain referendum and then simply walked away when anti-immigrant voters cast their votes for Leave.
The EU holds all the cards in any negotiations, and has a major incentive to give no quarter, lest other EU members get any ideas about leaving the bloc. May has no leverage, and it is a miracle she's gotten Brussels to agree to anything.
May's opponents have come up with precisely zero in the way of an alternative plan to a hard Brexit. All they do is shoot bullets at her plan, because that's the easy thing to do. Simultaneously, May's opponents have been peddling falsehoods to voters, convincing them that the UK can have all the benefits of being in the EU without any of the burdens.
At this point it looks like the voters who decided to vote for economic disaster are going to get their wish, with the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal. I would be tsk-tsking except, oops, look at the daily catastrophes Trump and Mitch McConnell have foisted on our own country.
The UK train is heading over a cliff, with no brakes.
4
Two points not mentioned:
1) That Russia's Putin was gung-ho to have the UK (or any one) break from the EU,
2) and, that this chaos (thanks to Putin) looks, oddly, like our little mess over here, on whether or not to impeach Trump.
In this case, the part played by May is being played by McConnell.
Both are conservative.
Neither wants to stick their head up too far.
And, if their ploy doesn't work out, or, even if it does, it will be a disaster for the country.
What is it about 'conservatives' that they can't get along?
Why are they void of 'leadership' and indifferent to the needs of the populace?
And, the real question is: Can this world survive the collapse of not just one democratic country, but two, both the USA and the UK?
How many really-bad decisions can a country survive?
We already have a 2 trillion $$$ tax CUT, a trillion $$$$ military budget, a president that can't read and someone named 'Steven Miller' running the show.
Add that to the UK up on the ledge and climate change and, yes,it is too late for the both of them.
RIP.
I don't get such incompetence.
7
After Brexit, Britain will be as the petulant child who runs away from a decent home over some petty conflict only to discover that they are hungry and that the household they once derided as overbearing is suddenly an oasis of tolerance and well being. Her siblings in Scotland and Northern Ireland may separate from their deranged older sister and stay put, finally realizing their dignity as autonomous beings in their own right.
6
The lesson of Brexit for the GOP is very straightforward: if you do exactly what your wealthy backers tell you to do, they’ll end up happy, but they aren’t going to look after you when everything goes haywire. It’s sayonara baby,
5
John Brews ✅✅, I agree with your comment but will not recommend them until you get rid of the green.
Use red checks. Use blue. Use any color but the color the NY Times used to designate as "trusted".
Thank you.
1
Someone credible in Parliament actually needs to stand up and say “Y’know, in hindsight this doesn’t seem like a good idea”. The elephant in the Commons is that the whole enterprise - no matter the choice of Brexit - is utterly utterly incoherent, backwards and destructive.
3
The conservatives who offered Brexit to the voters in a ridiculous plebiscite lied about its implications in their demagogic anti immigrant fervor. Now as doomsday approaches they are impotent to deal with it since the consequences are so great. Not only will London no longer be the financial center of Europe but the United Kingdom itself may dissolve losing
Northern Ireland and Scotland to separatism.
What an absurd way to destroy a nation and an economy at the same time! It was all self inflicted by the least competent group of Conservative politicians
seeking to placate their angry base of voters.
The solution is easy but would take political courage. Reverse course and admit error. If necessary, have a new vote. But please remain in Europe. Time is running out and paralysis means an inevitable disaster.
5
It's particularly sad and irritating that the English (forget for a moment the Welsh. Scots and Northern Ireland) don't realise that the winner in all the Brexit chaos is Russia; Putin already has the USA in his thrall and picking the UK off from the EU is another feather in his cap. The ultimate goal of Russia - as of Trump - is the breaking up of the EU and, if possible, NATO. Putin, like all Russians has a long historical memory. He's thinking decades down the road, whereas the English and US politicians are playing silly word games of thirty second duration.
6
England could exit Great Britain and then exit the EU allowing North Ireland and Scotland to decide for themselves. Over the years they have fought the Spanish, the French, the Americans, the Germans and themselves. Though admired, for a long list of good reasons, in Europe they are widely viewed as haughty and a nuisance. Hence, good riddance. And good luck!
1
The EU is right to say sorry but no special deals Britain you either are in or out. The scary thing is this could be the trigger that starts a world wide economic decline and with Trump and his C team in charge on this side of the Atlantic things could get ugly.
4
@Chris . Slowing growth is already underway. Given that the UK is not in the Euro zone and the pound is a second-tier currency, it could be worse. I would think the markets would prefer resolution (any resolution) over continued uncertainly although a deep recession in the world's 5th largest economy will leave a mark in the EU and further abroad. Eventually, other economies will potentially benefit and the only real loser will be the UK.
1
The way Britain is handling the looming disaster of Brexit is eerily similar to the way the United States is handling the looming disaster of climate change: pretend it doesn’t exist while the local conservative party drives the country off a cliff.
No-deal Brexit is going to ruin Britain’s economy. Climate change is going to ruin not just our own country but the entire world. We’d better learn from Britain’s catastrophic example and get our own act together - fast.
5
Brexit was passed by a vote among citizens the same way Trump was elected: Falling for lies.
6
The silver lining in the idiocy of Brexit is that we may be able to afford to move back to our home country. The irony of the idiocy of Brexit is that our home country will be - is being - so devastated by the pointless and regressive withdrawal from the EU, for the first time in forty years we question whether we wish to move back - and this despite the monstrosity which is now governing our other homeland, America. The personal tragedy of the sheer idiocy of Brexit, the triggering referendum of which we were disqualified from voting in as non-residents, is that we will also lose the ability to move to the EU. Ah well...at least we have Canadian citizenship too.
1
I have a good friend whose elderly English aunt, a woman of modest means who spends her time knitting, tending geraniums, and reading books, voted to leave. She wrote my friend that she voted this way because when she gets on the bus in her small village, more than half the people on it are immigrants speaking a foreign language.
It's easy to dismiss her vote as coming from a narrow-minded, xenophobic bumpkin--someone who doesn't "get" the benefits of the EU and the global economy. More simply, it was a vote by someone who thought her way of life had been taken from her by faraway bureaucrats.
5
DeGaulle vetoed UK-English, really, - membership in the then Commoin Market three times. He said that UK would disrupt the organization.
During the negotiations that later led to the UK joking what by then was The European Economic Community- the chief UK negotiator threw cold water on the idea that EEC policies were consistent with the UK’s policy on a range of issues.
All this has now come to a head.
An extension of Article 50 is meaningless. There is no solution to be had about the border between Northern Ireland and the ROI.
There is no magic technological fix to a Hard Boder. The Brexiteers do not care about that. In their hearts, they think that the ROI will have to yield.
If necessary, they are perfectly willing to throw the Orangemen Under the Bus. Those guys=the NI Protestants, aka the DUP, are learning the hard way just how irrelevant they are.
It is a mess, for sure, but it has been coming for a long time.
Gilbralter is going to be a huge problem, tps.
1
Brexit is self-mutilation on an epic scale. The reasons? A political class in GB that (for years) had no problem with blaming th EU for everything going wrong in the country, although it was in their responsibility to fix these issues? "Keep our borders save!" , dudes, you`re not part of the Schengen agreement anyway, so you have full control over your borders! "Keep our money save!", ffs, the UK opted out of the € anyway. "Undemocratic laws from Brussels!", the UK opted out of the "Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union" as well.
Top that with a (foreign owned) press which delights in publishing anti EU retoric and you got you explanation why enough Brits thought it`ll be a good idea to disrupt. I get the want to disrupt after basically being neglected by your governments since Thatcher dismanteled british industries, but this will only lead to additional economic suffering of the little people.
imho it`s a shame, that there doesn`t seem to be any party actually understanding and communicating what the EU really stands for: a band of brothers and sisters building a political structure that`s safeguarding our political and personal freedoms. In addition to that there is no alternative for Europe to stay relevant on a global stage.
5
Miserable voters who believed their concerns were being ignored thrust this on the British people as a way of finally "getting their own back."
This is so obviously similar to U.S. governmental dysfunction where the thwarted inflicted Donald Trump on all of us and continues to support him, even as he lies, refuses to do any work and supports the Russian autocrat who used bot armies to steal our election.
Now that these people understand the power of the vote - and are again being targeted by Russian bots here and in the U.K. - how will Britain or the U.S. ever elect a functional government that is lawful and represents the will of the majority of voters.
With Trump in the White House and our elections hostage to the Confederate Electoral College, we are no better off than the British - who must be scared out of their minds. As are most of us.
5
Absolutely maddening stuff.
We watched and silently listened as one untruth and lie and manipulative, dishonest claim after another was trotted out by several well-known Brexiteers – some of whom have gone on to enjoy considerable success and influence with America’s far Right media – which completely, utterly ignored Northern Ireland, or the issues of how to leave Europe when one quarter of Britain was physically attached to the EU; how hundreds of thousands of British ex-pats living in Spain and elsewhere would live once they lost their access to local EU healthcare or straightforward banking; what would happen to everything from mobile (cell) phone charges to many other such matters.
Instead, the Brexiteers simply claimed that leaving the EU would be dead easy, there were loads of easy deals that would very easily be made, and that saying anything else was Project Fear.
And, to add blindness to stupidity, they now all blame Mrs May for the Brexit failures. As awful as she is for many reasons, that’s an unfair, silly stance – there isn’t a single person alive who can deliver Brexit, given that it represents Britain looking to rip itself apart at the crossroad of crossroads, with her citizens and politicians and pundits and immigrants and businesspeople all yearning to each pick a different route of What Brexit Means To Them, and then run away down it, away from everyone else who doesn't share their vision of What Brexit Really Is.
Absolutely maddening stuff, indeed...
4
NYT, what would really be interesting is reporting from Scotland about its reaction to impending Brexit. For example, is their parliament considering seeking a deal to stay in the EU and, in effect, declaring independence from the UK?
3
@J P Yes, it would be interesting but the NYT needn't do it. The world wide web is a marvelous thing sometimes. Type "scotland, news, brexit" into a search box and bob's yer brain surgeon.
If you follow the money, you'll find that it leads to Putin and the politicians he and his oligarchs bought, both in England, France, and the United States.
4
As we cannot trust this board to do anything without an ulterior motive one wonders what is that motive here. I'd guess banking interests are whispering the NYT ear, "Brexit will hurt us, do something."
At any rate we are not dealing with some bunch of millennial babies here, this is the British, of whom Churchill said, "The British people are the only people who actually enjoy hardship!" He also said they are "... impossible to stop once they collectively get it in their minds a right & noble idea holds for them absolutely no benefit!"
And the US could take a lesson about the worthlessness of identity politics and open borders. Even the hard left former MP George Galloway is on record that on principle there is no nation without internal national control of who can and who cannot enter the country.
Britain was significant in Churchill’s days. Today however, if Brexit happens, it will be a mid sized country with all that implies: a market too small to make a fiscal fist against multinationals, in the absence of EU support: security council seat in doubt, loss of the privilege to work and live in 27 other countries, etc.
3
@Liz - As I said, it's not the United States and does not want to be the United States, where identity politics is used by corporations to distract a population from their inclinations to be a people. Did you have a point?
Be a ‘people’ all you want, but the reality of economics today will give the UK all the hardship you seem to think is wanted there. You can’t eat nostalgia. If you have no trading partners abroad it’ll be hard to even ship the few exports you do have.
England has been our ally and and source of strength to the United States for more than 150 years. Our legal system and our language are from England. My ancestors were from Ireland, which has had a very troubled history with England, but I recognize the enormous role England has played in our nation’s birth and development.
England must vote again and stop this Brexit suicide. There is no doubt that a new vote would reach a different result. We (the US) need the EU strong and that means we need England to remain in the EU.
The same sinister force which put Mr. Trump at the helm of our ship has likely planted the idiotic Brexit seed in British soil. Was it Russia? That seems to be the case. Russia is certainly the country most likely to benefit - to our great detriment- if Brexit occurs while the United States is being “led” by this awful so-called “President” and the worst Senate in our nation’s history.
England needs to stay the course and stay in the EU, and we need to get rid of the traitors now in office in Washington. I only hope our Democracy will survive in the interim.
7
I too wonder at leaders who promoted such an enormous undertaking without one idea of how to do so. I also really wonder, dumbfoundedly, at an electorate that voted for the idea without asking for any details, not the tiny every day details but the a, b, c plan to accomplish such an undertaking. Didn't it occur to any of them that the process would be complicated at best? I am sure that at least some of the folk who voted against Brexit did so out of pragmatic concerns. I bet if the British populace had been given a chance to sound off at their government for all the grievances and injustices they felt about being in the European Union, like a huge grievance festival or rallies say, (hmm, would that work here?) with no grave, life altering consequences afterwards if Brexit still would have won. I can't help but see the parallels with the U.S. Deep dissatisfaction spilling out in a toxic rush that lands the nation with four years of lethal buffoonery. Britain's version is to cut off their nose to spite their face. In both cases I feel certain and healthy self interest will return but what then?
5
in a few months key UK actors will have an Irish passport (easy to obtain) and relocate in Europe.
the same for companies.
UK is dead and soon will be drained of its substance.
they have been a really bad partner and they deserve their fate.
without them, the EU will grow freely.
brexit is the best thing that happened for the EU in decades.
2
This big mess is yet another outcome of populism. It all started with a feud within the Conservative party, it continued with the confident arrogance of a Prime Minister (Cameron) who did not understand the danger of calling a referendum with a 51% majority for such a complex issue, it ended up in the hands of shrewd manipulators who conveyed votes where they wanted too.
We do not know for sure if "agencies" such as Cambridge Analytica or other foreign driven players had a role, but one thing is clear: the target was the EU before it was the UK.
Writing from a country (Italy) who can boast, not one, but two populist parties, one from the North(with a GNP similar to Germany)and one from the South (with a GNP similar to Greece). I can only feel for those Britons who voted to stay.
An isolated UK, as well as an isolated Italy(as at times our dangerous two populist parties coalition seems to suggest), find no place in this world. Fear for the future, social resentment -dangerous an yet partly motivated by poor redistribution of wealth-,shrinking of the welfare state-a bonus in the US, a condition for the social contract in the EU-, are the basic components that fueled populism. As history teaches us populism in Europe is also associated with nationalism, which is associated with war. The EU, despite all its shortcomings, its incomplete legislation, and its chronic incapacity to talk to the "common man" is the only antidote we know, in this continent, to the poison of war .
8
If May wasn't so committed to the concept of democracy and obeying the will of the people, she'd call for another referendum on Brexit.
Unfortunately, she's more committed to it than was Michael Bloomberg who bought off the NYC city council to be able to run for a third term as mayor after the voters had twice voted to have term limits.
2
The worldwide flirtation with nationalism-isolationism has many sympathetic vibrations. Certainly Brexit without a plan is echoed in the US by national emergency without a plan.
What is most alarming is the tendency on the part of the responsible leaders to double down rather than admit a mistake and move on. May continues to pursue the bankrupt Brexit policy rather then either calling for a new referendum or election. Trump behaves likewise. Rather than acknowledge defeat and cede the field to the appropriators, he will seek to grab power and destroy our Democracy.
We the voters in our selfishness and ignorance brought this on. Now we need to expunge our mistake. It may be too late.
2
@Brian Barrett Who are the "appropriators"? By the way, the article is about Brexit.
There is a plan. It's the one the International Mafia has bee putting into place since WWII.
The plan is to destroy the U.K., the European Union, OUR United States of America, start WW3 and try to put power into the few inherited/stolen wealth Robber Barons who think they "deserve" it all.
They are misfits. The worst of humanity. They must all be stopped right now before they can make the rest of the world look like Syria.
3
Brits will finally wake up to the fact that they are now "Once-was Great Britain". A name change seems appropriate. How about "Not so Great Britain"? Brexit is a fantastic example of how referendums are dangerous and not consistent with any form of representative government where the public chooses people who's job it is to be well advised and informed, figure things out, and run the place. Mob rule by referendum is a disaster.
3
Its time to accept the outcome of a free and fair election and implement the will of the voters. No do-overs no matter how badly the losing side wants one and no matter how much they clamor about 'unfair' or 'Russia Did It'. A no deal Brexit will hurt the EU as much as the UK but they took a hardline approach and now they have to accept that outcome. No Deal, No Do Over. They will work through it.
@GregP . A no deal will hurt the EU a bit at first but the UK far, far more both immediately and later. This is not anything close to a symmetrical economic relationship. And second votes can happen; it's called democracy. £specially now that eyes are wide open to actual consequences.
There are many U.K voters that still think their vote for Brexit was a terrific idea.
There are also many U.S. voters that still think their vote for Trump was a terrific idea.
Thank you, facebook and twitter.
7
What started as a show of superiority based on the belief that the EU would cave to each British demand might turn out to be the final chapter of the dismemberment of the British Empire as Scotland rebels and votes to separate from the U.K. and Ireland used its influence to unite the Republic with Ulster. Very interesting times indeed.
2
The next move here is like "the emperor with no clothes" -- everybody sees it yet it does not even get a mention in the article. Now that everyone in UK has a better idea what 'Brexit" actually means, an the consequences, there should be another referendum. With luck, citizens reconsider. But even if they don't & reaffirm the decision, then at least there will be a clear indication that "hard Brexit" was at least even KNOWN to be a likely alternative when the public made its choice. When they voted two years ago they literally did not know the choices they were choosing between!
I think the EU should consider hard actually making any extension contingent to a 2nd vote. Someone with a voice that commands attention needs to tell the emperor that he has no clothes.
5
The idea that a "deal" with the EU must be reached is a PC mindset.
With that as a premise, why would the EU be willing to budge on most any position they hold?
The truth is that there is a price to be paid for the UK to gain back the sovereignty they so foolishly gave away in order to join the EU. And the price may well be some chaos in certain business sectors, trade, taxation, and other areas. But it won't last all that long because the UK is a huge market that every nation wants a piece of.
I understand that Liberals have a goal of banishing nations and having a one-world system. So the entire notion of Brexit is hateful to them. But clearly the majority of Britons want out. And to essentially try to overturn the election by scuttling the decision to leave the EU by means of subterfuge and demanding impossible to achieve "deals", isn't much different than the USA Liberals trying to overturn our 2016 Presidential election by any means possible no matter how dishonest and underhanded.
@Rocky After reading your tedious screed where you conflate your distaste with Democrats to the political situation in the UK I wanted to make a few points.
1. The major opposition party in the UK is Labor not the Liberals. I might mention that if you compare the Conservative party's position on major social issues they would fall closest to moderate Democrats. The hard-right conservatives in the US would be considered part of the lunatic fringe in the UK.
2. Brexit passed 52-48%. I wouldn't call this a large majority. What would you call Donald Trump winning the 2016 election but loosing the popular vote 48 - 46% .... a resounding victory? And you wonder why some US voters would like a redo.
3. Brexit will directly impact approximately 15% of the UK economy. While that doesn't sound like much it doesn't include the indirect impacts like business investment and it will have significant deleterious impact at least in the short term. How much and how long is yet to be seen.
@Rocky I'm from a Border community by Northern Ireland - an area that's not exactly world-renowned for being a 'Liberal' heartland (not that people on this side of the pond use the L-word very much, seeing as Americans love chucking that word at people as though there's no tomorrow, regardless of how utterly empty and meaningless it almost invariably is to use).
Still. To stay on point - I'm sure that I, and everyone else on the island of Ireland - in Northern Ireland and the Republic alike, would simply love to hear your no doubt ingenious solution to The Northern Ireland Border Problem, in relation to Brexit.
Yes indeed, we'd love to see if your blase, cavalier attitude and your odd references to 'PC' and 'Liberals' in relation to Brexit can be backed up by anything remotely sensible to say, or if you are, as you Americans say, just talking out of your hat.
In your own time, tell us Irish what The Solution to The Border is - let's hear what Your deal is, the one that's eluded the combined politicians of Dublin, London, Belfast and Brussels, but which Rocky from Florida appears to think is easy.
Off you go...
The discussion is all politics. Big money will decide what will come out of Brexit without a deal. And politicians will adjust their discourse accordingly.
1
Is it possible that Britain got manipulated in the way most believe the US was in the 2016 election?
There never was a strategy for exiting the EU but it does seem as if some people mischievously played on the legitimate dissatisfaction of some blue-collar workers; convincing them it was better to cut and run than to try and fix things.
Why doesn’t Ms. May play the same game; resign at the last minute and leave everybody who has opposed her trying to find their own way out.
3
Anti-Brexit militants, of which I would count the editorial community of the Times as, one, have long been "alarming" the newsprint with dire predictions of - you name it - chaos, shortages, unemployment, in short, a severe downward spiral in the living conditions in the U.K., and secondary effects that would - worst case scenario - severely damage the European community. No way to know, of course, but anti-Brexit agitators, ever anxious to reverse a democratically chosen path, are hyping the "emergency," for their own ends. Me, I'm no economist and don't live in the U.K.; I've no dog in their fight. But to my mind, if the worst comes to pass, it would create interesting investment opportunities - London real estate going for a song.
The vultures are waiting to swoop down and pick the corpse clean after the UK goes over the cliff. They, and Putin, will be the only beneficiaries of Brexit.
That is a pretty selfish take on the situation.
Parliament is watching the London financial sector get torn apart, equaling seven percent of the entire British economy and they do not seem to care. The odds are that, in case of a hard Brexit, London will face a genuine crash, as its financial might is dismantled. Brexiteers seem particularly hostile to London and anticipate its fall with glee.
3
I am surprised by the number of comments calling for a revote or simply ignoring the will of the people. After a long run-up, UK citizens voted 52-48 to Leave the EU. Many claim the electorate was ill-informed or duped. But isn't that true of nearly all elections, everywhere?
The EU is far from a democratic entity.
Germany's outsized influence has enormously benefited it but it's pressing for unrealistic austerity measures in many less developed countries of the EU plus it's disastrous position on a near open door policy on migrants has caused deep divisions and put many countries into recession, and the entire Union onto the brink of recession. Brexit could serve as a clarion call to reform the EU into a far more democratic body.
1
What's the point of an extension? The Brits have frittered away the the three months since May and the EU negotiated a deal. Why should anyone expect them to make better use of a few more months? Better stick to March 29 and at least resolve the uncertainty.
2
The Brexit people are like Dumpf. They want to make Britian great again!
They cannot deal or negotiate, in part because they are all reaction and have no idea what it is they want--they just need to throw a fit because they are unhappy about something.
Like then USA, their policies have gotten them where they are and they refuse to recognize that the enemy is themselves.
All they want is their former glory---largely based on the exploitation of other peoples around the world.
10
In three years a lot can change in any nation. Indeed as was shown in November the majority can be overturned, as happened in the House. In Australia I believe they have a three year term of Parliament then the people vote. It would seem logical therefore that Britons should revote for a number of reasons. First taking into account the deal May made, is that satisfactory for the people? Second the evidence of outside interference. Third, the fact that many of the Brexiteers were shown to be false. Fourth, quite simply that people’s views change over time with new information. And fifth the evidence of the chaos that the last years have brought to British politics and to their economy
Simply put It’s time for the people to decide, this time with three years new information.
4
As a Brit living overseas Brexit is deeply troubling on many counts. Add on truckloads of embarrassment and its a cocktail gone badly wrong.
The EU is fundamentally there to preserve peace across the continent. It's largely been very successful.
That stability lead - logically - to the EEC or 'the common market'. It's hard to be trading partners when you're busy shelling eachother.
Fast forward a few decades and the stability Europe has enjoyed (politically and economically) is being challenged by more than a few people who don't seem to appreciate what could be lost (and in this regard I include both the politically far left and the far right, the extremely wealthy and the desperately poor). Viewed this way it's no wonder Trump wants to see Europe fractured....him and his crony friends smell a sackload of cash.
As for May and Corbyn they're both inept leaders (the latter is seeing his party unravel today). They're both putting party above country and certainly above their constituents...many of whom are in desperate need of help and for whom Brexit is an oasis that is merely a mirage.
5
A British friend came up with a great idea about a year ago, tongue and cheek of course. He suggested that the Britain become the 51st state, and that the US adopt the monarchy. I asked what will we do about Donald Trump? Of course, that is a deal breaker.
1
At least America will be rid of Trump in 2 years or less than 2 years. (No I don't think any president who never achieved 50% approval will be able to win a second term. First time no one thought he would win. Next time we won't be so cavalier.) But on to Brexit. The British will not be rid of it in 2 years or ever. A weaken UK will not be good for America. And the right wing politians on the mainland that are gaining strength will not be good for us either. What a mess the US and UK voted us into.
7
There is no soft Brexit. They're either in or out.
I thought the main problem was the EU requirement that Britain could not achieve sovereignty until after the Irish Customs Border problem was solved, which has no agreed time limit after Brexit. During the interim, Britain would not be able to strike new trade deals at will. Isn't that a worse position to be in than crashing out of the EU with no deal?
May should decide there HAS to be a customs border between northern and southern Ireland; if NI wants to be out of the EU and Eire wants to stay in, irrespective of any political consequences.
Tearing up the Good Friday Agreement would bring a return to The Troubles.
1
Isn't the core value of a democracy to acknowledge that no one knows the ultimate truth? I was surprised that a vote of such a significant meaning of leaving the EU would not even require a 2/3 majority. The result was so close that I cannot understand how the Brexit/Leave vote still gets represented as "the will of the British people". For me as a German the EU means foremost providing peace for everyone in Europe (and a perspective of prosperity). It has become clear that the BREXIT decision was based on lies to the British people and - coming back to my first sentence - was a mistake. Friends in Britain, use your democratic traditions of which you can be so proud of, to correct the mistake of the BREXIT idea. It is not too late. You would REMAIN welcome.
15
I completely agree. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of real political will to get this done; otherwise it would be done already.
A margin of 6 points in an election with tens of millions of votes is just not enough of a margin for a momentous event like leaving the EU - it’s not a city council election that will be repeated in a couple of years - 2/3 sounds about right to me.
2
A "Hard Brexit" is like the Gordian Knot" which one cannot untie but which must be cut with one strong slash. I know people who live in the UK on both sides of the issue. There is no easy
way to end this. Why did it begin? Perhaps we will never know how being the Island Nation makes it isolationist, but that has been the trend of history.
3
The NYT editorial team has nicely described the political paralysis in the UK and the looming deadline. Much is made of the fantastic arguments put forward by prominent UK politicians and experts. Why then add to the fire by calling for a substantial delay or a meaningful vote at the last instant? Exactly how would the UK get a substantial delay? What would the precise wording of a new referendum be? How would such a referendum change the basic paralysis?
I understand that many ordinary people confuse aspirational statements with explicit feasible solutions. I can't believe that the NYT is unaware of the difference. Therefore I must assume that you are talking in code. As far as I can tell, at this late date there are only three things that the UK can do: exit with May's Agreement, exit without an agreement, or make a formal statement before March 29 rescinding its invocation of Article 50. Is your statement code for that rescinding?
Since I am complaining about words used incorrectly, I must point out that "May's Plan" doesn't seem at all to be May's Plan. As far as I recall, May took the UK plan, called the "Chequers Plan", to Salzburg in late fall. It was roundly rejected by the EU, within hours. Soon thereafter, the EU presented its best-and-final offer and started the long process of getting it ratified by the 27 remaining EU members. The UK immediately started calling it May's Plan.
2
The Prime Minister is - to use a Poker analogy - 'all in' with a low pair and just hoping the bluff will work. She's running down the clock to force her deal (which is pointless - the UK might as well just stay in the EU) or the much more radical 'No Deal'. The likely outcomes arising from a 'No Deal' have (of course) been subject to much political spin and the NYT might want to give more space to some commentators who are not on the hard right (Larry Elliot and Maurice Glasman come mind) who have argued that No Deal would not be so disruptive: others (Tom Kibasi of the respected and left leaning IPPR) suggest the damage will be long term as the EU does not win from a precipitous 'No Deal' exit. It's all, for sure, a mess and like most messes not altogether straightforward.
1
the only sane and sensible thing to do about Brexit is this:
No extension. Just cancellation.
I don't just blame May (and Cameron, who started the process) for the whole mess. Corbyn, too. He is smart enough to have known that Brexit would be a disaster, but he followed his Euroskeptic heart instead of his head, and in effect became May's accomplice. Too bad - he could have shown some leadership and rallied the Remain forces ion Parliament and the nation.
Both party leaders would rather jockey for power after the next election, regardless of thew disaster they inherit.
5
The best thing, the most patriotic action that Theresa May could/should do is call for an immediate election that would decide the fate of Brexit by framing it as a choice between her "soft Brexit" or "no Brexit." If Parliament is paralyzed that is the only responsible way to decide in a democracy. Let the voters decide.
6
Maybe put the question back before the citizens? It is clear that no PM will ever receive the necessary support from a Parliament as starkly divided as is this. The EU leadership recognizes this and insists on bringing the issue to a close. Who can blame them?
2
If only it were so simple
David Cameron gave the original vote as an appeasement to the extreme end of his party who were virulently anti-Europe
Today, Theresa May is sticking with the original vote (warts and all) for the same reason
She doesn’t want to split the Conservative party
Party before Country
Sound familiar to anyone?
26
@Alex Familiar indeed. And that policy causes nothing but chaos.
5
@Alex
Party before Country, indeed. But the same goes for Jeremy Corbyn. He's a Brexiteer at heart but his head is smart enough to see that it's a disaster in the making, and he could have made the case for Remain. But he's more interested in jockeying for power.
1
And what role did misinformation from Russia influence British votes on Brexit? Russia has been very the last few years in that regard. Has Putin’s interference succeeded in undermining the economic basis of European unity?
9
I've wondered, why so many articles about Brexit? After all, Britain did choose to cut ties with the EU and so there may be some economic disruption, but so what? It's unlikely to have nay effect on us.
Then I realized that the US has two main concerns. One is that if popular democracy can throw a monkey wrench into that corner of the global capitalist scheme then this disease might be contagious.
The other is that London is America's junior partner for NATO adventurism, Middle East intrigue and Financial control of the European corner of global capitalism.
If they break from the EU then our junior partner may have to ceed its clout to the Germans, who have on some matters been less pliable.
I'm beginning to think that many of these horror stories of what might happen are overblown and elements within the UK and the US financial stratosphere are worried about their own welfare, not that of the British people.
To that I say good riddance to them. Democracy has spoken. Hopefully it might find a similar voice in the US.
3
DrSpock- in the 21st Century when there is economic instability in any major or mid-major player it affects all, including us. So when Spain and Greece had troubles we felt them.
The US has enough business connections with Britain that all these major corporations from Banks to internet to cars to Trump’s golf courses to whatever would suffer. Add to that the holders of British loans who would find their investments endangered and US exporters who might find a market shrinking, and hopefully you might get the picture.
A
Maybe Dr you should stick to medicine since your grasp on economics is a trifle weak!dd to this that economic instability can lead to political instability then the problems can escalate. Americans living in Britain can be targets. Likewise American businesses.
Russia did not target the Brexit vote for fun but to destabilize the West. A weaker Britain means a weaker West which includes......us!
What's being mainly ignored is how, like in the US, the rule of law is being trampled to get here.
A prime minister goes down in the largest defeat in history over the one policy issue her government is actually working on. That prime minister, instead of resigning (the norm) decides to fight out a no-confidence vote and wins because of the cynical dealing of the very people who said they won't back her policy.
Worse, Henry VIII powers have been invoked and government members are using their new extreme latitude to re-write laws that properly belong to Parliament - laws which in many cases they're simply throwing out, because they literally don't have the time to figure out who will be responsible for implementing them. Never mind that they're ditching regulations on consumer rights, environmental safety and more based essentially on one person's say-so.
Worried about the constitutional crisis over the national emergency declaration in the US? In the UK, it's already happened.
334
@Elle I have been shocked by what has been going on over there. In the UK, as here though, it is shocking that the Tories keep getting elected just as it is shocking that any thinking person would vote for a Republican over here. Thatcher seems revered over there, but so many fiascos, not least of which is the privatization of British Rail are laid at here feet. Similarly, the seeds of the US disaster of the Trumplicans are laid at the feet of Ronald Reagan. I think its time to bury conservatism once and for all.
93
@Elle
This story diverts our attention from a much more important story not covered by the Times, for obvious reasons. That being McCabe's 60 Minutes admission that he and Rosenstein discussed removing Trump under the 25th Amendment. Apparently they even speculated on which Cabinet members wou!d support them. If true, this is sedition and those involved have to be investigated, prosecuted and if convicted sent to prision.
I believe that after Trump defeated Hillary the Democratic establishment was so devistated and unable to explain why it happened that the Steel dossier, paid for by Clinton campaign, gave them an excuse - the Russian collusion assertion. We know that the information in the dossier was being fed to the top of the FBI by Bruce Orr whose wife Nellie, working for Fusion GPS, was the source.
In my view, this set in motion a coordinated Democratic effort to unseat Trump. From Rice and Powers unmasking Trump campaign officials that led to the Carter Paige FISA warrants to McCabe starting an obstruction and Russian investigations after Comey firing. Rosestein then appointing Mueller and Orr briefing Weissman on the dossier. The Strozk-Page texts indicating an "Insurance Policy" against a Trump presidency. Jim Baker now confirming a coup in Congessional testimony involving the McCabe and Rosenstein 25th Admendment plan. The extent of this is slowly seeping out.
I just hope Mr. Barr cleans up this coordinated treasonous mess and prosecuted those involved.
@OldTimer Using the 25th Amendment to remove an incompetent president is not sedition. The process is prescribed in law. The 25th Amendment is part of the Constitution of the United States. And, its implementation requires the support of the Vice President and the majority of the Cabinet. If the President refuses the decision of the Vice President and the majority of his Cabinet, then a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress will be required to remove him. What McCabe and others discussed was recommending to the Cabinet that this lawful process be implemented. Suggesting a Constitutional process does not constitute sedition, especially when those recommending it fear that the President may be colluding with a hostile power to the detriment of our country.
73
May's plan to the extent there is on is clearly to run down the clock to late March if possible and face MP's with the choice of voting for her current deal (with maybe some nice but not legally binding language from the EU) or face crashing out without a deal with all the chaos that implies. It might work but it's a large gamble since about 100 members of her own party would welcome a crash out and therefore she would have to rely on Labour votes to get it through. The EU are not going to agree to an extension unless there is a clear reason for it (eg. a second referendum) since all 27 members have to agree to grant such an extension. The EU are clearly running out of patience and preparing for the worst. The canary in the coal mine was the various statements by Rutte the Dutch PM (who is probably the most pro British voice in the EU).
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@John
The Brits have no choice but to ask for an extension, and hopefully a very long one. And I would predict that the EU will be very happy to grant it. A no deal crash out is in no one's interest. With Europe's economies presently completely intertwined, the very idea of tariffs, inspections, shortages etc should strike the anvil of fear in everyone. The EU is indeed running out of patience, and the British are looking insane in their inability to reach a consensus, but clear heads will prevail. More time will be granted.
7
@Rick Morris, I think that the only thing that will clear their heads is when enough of the public becomes massively outraged at the incompetence of their government and demand change. The same thing that also needs to happen here.
12
May's cobbled-together mandate going in was - I'm being generous here - shaky. The whole Brexit thing - the propaganda, the "sovereignty," the flag-waving, the election which may have been influenced - issues misrepresented to the credulous, rigged? - is a bit too reminiscent of our own influenced presidential election and the questionable legitimacy and mandate of Trump.
The cavalier no-deal exit boys are also a bit reminiscent of our own '08 financial meltdown where our Republicans - in their wisdom - advocated for the collapse of the auto industry, the banking system, the biggest insurance company in the world (AIG), with rationalizations that I won't dignify with comment.
And, waiting in the wings, were the Republican's buddies, the leveraged buyout crew, the private equity mob, The Mitt Romney Bain Capital, licking their chops and dreaming about buying Bank of America for ten cents on the dollar with borrowed money.
And the main thing we have in common with the Brits is a "conservative" hamstrung dysfunctional government led by a feckless conservative. But there's hope...and you can always twiddle your thumbs...
321
@Midnight Scribe You have to realize though that those LBO buddies are a persistent lot. It took a while but they have now installed a US leadership team, recently contested but perhaps too little too late, that is absolutely demolishing the credibility of the US in just about every dimension you want to look at it. That they have similarly powered ahead in the UK using delusional pommy twits as their agents is not surprising, even though the success of these serial manufactured crises by Conservative and corporate interests does not bode well for mounting a strong defense of human civilization. There are in fact a few real crises that are now festering and metastasizing that we are aware of, notwithstanding the blustering of the current ships of fools contending the only option is full speed ahead on our current path despite the rising potential for catastrophic consequences. It is mind boggling actually.
3
@Midnight Scribe
Just like the Oligarchs in Russia and Ukraine when after the Communist governments "fell" the people who ended up owning everything and becoming filthy rich were the very Communist bureaucrats that had already been running things. The Republicans in the US are just enabling the already rich to takeover everything here. All those people at Trump rallies wearing MAGA hats are in for a big surprise when they end up in worse condition than they started. Unfortunately they will take down a lot of the middle class with them.
10
Negotiations have failed. Favourable terms were an illusion. Reality blows like mustard gas crossing the channel, a spectre of isolation, irrelevance and decline. If May stays the course, the United Kingdom is lost: within a decade there will be an independent Scotland and a united Ireland, both within the EU, and a rump of little Englanders left angry, complaining still. On the other hand, if she falls on her sword and acknowledges the failure of her government, there could be a chance for the country to take stock and to reevaluate their options now laid stark.
The “right thing to do” is to promise a new referendum and, for that, ask the EU to extend the deadline. This is likely to be granted as it affords Europe the chance to be gloriously magnanimous. Then the hard problem will be to frame a debate that avoids the now entrenched prejudice of leavers and remainers, so that there can be a truly considered vote. I suspect that if May came out in favour of remaining, saying that she had only been following the mandate of the first referendum but had learnt its folly, then that might be her final glorious sacrifice that saves the kingdom.
9
One of the most appalling aspects of Brexit is the lack of attention given to the crisis by the TV news media. It goes unmentioned on the networks, which is itself a scandal.
It is also clear that the hard Brexit folks don't care what happens to Britain as long as their views prevail. That should sound familiar to all of us here in the US. Indeed, it was the Brexit vote that led to my terror that Trump could actually win, despite his manifest instability and lack of everything a president needs to be president.
The May plans keep getting turned down by the odd coalition of those who oppose Brexit and those who want their own way at whatever cost. The only way out is to cancel Brexit completely. I have never understood the view that a new referendum would be a betrayal of the British people. The original vote was based on lies, lies that those who uttered them identified as such shortly after they won. And what did they win, exactly?
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@Barbara8101
Agreed. The only way out is to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit completely. Support for staying in the EU is at its highest level since the June 2016 referendum, according to a YouGov survey last month. In that poll, 56% of the electorate said they would choose to remain in the EU if there was a new referendum, vs. 44% who would choose to leave – a whopping margin of 12 percentage points. To allow people a second vote is not a betrayal. It is the right thing to do. Denying them that right would be profoundly undemocratic.
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@Barbara8101 Brexit and its "UK First" reasoning may be a blueprint for the U.S. with its Trump battle cry of "America First".
When Brexit is complete and we see the chaos that may ensue due to the lack of trade agreements with the E.U., perhaps more learned persons will emerge in this country and hopefully prevent the same chaos in trade with our trading partners.
38
@Dan
Please don't compare the US with the UK.
We have our problems too but nowhere near the magnitude that the English made for themselves. Unfortunately the rest of the EU will be badly hurt as well.
England is no longer Great Britain and many in England have not grasped that yet!
25
It's interesting isn't it? I voted to "Remain" in the referendum, but without enormous passion. I acknowledge that there was misinformation promoted (by both sides) in the campaign and I was surprised that "Leave" won. I recall that the referendum was introduced as "advisory" on a technical level, but that all politicians on both sides of the debate consistently declared that, whatever the outcome, the result of the vote would be implemented.
So here we are. Mrs May's "deal" is so favourable to the EU that it is incapable of garnering widespread support other than as a least-favoured option. The Irish government has pursued a Withdrawal Agreement that would promote Irish unification and can not now resile from a position that would produce their own economic collapse. The EU27, even on the verge of recession, can not afford to yield to sense because of the threat of fragmentation despite the financial consequences.
My feeling is that May's deal will scrape through at the very, very last minute. Somehow. If not, although I would have preferred to remain, I would now be content that the UK merely exit without any transition "deal." Mark Rutte's assessment is probably right, but British national characteristics of determination, the belief in "fairness", appreciation of eccentricity and humour kicked in some time ago. A "middling economy stuck in the Atlantic Ocean" doesn't sound awful. Freedom to make our own mistakes is worth sacrifice. There will be pain. Fair enough.
52
@longsummer
"The Irish government has pursued a Withdrawal Agreement that would promote Irish unification and can not now resile from a position that would produce their own economic collapse".
This betrays a complete and wilful ignorance of the Irish position. The Irish government has sought to secure respect from the UK for its obligations under the Good Friday agreement - in order to give a still fragile peace in Northern Ireland - a part of the UK jurisdiction, let's not forget - a decent chance of surviving the consequences of Brexit. The governing party in Ireland, Fine Gael, is avowedly non-nationalist and the least likely to call for a reunited Ireland. A few days the Irish prime-minister (Taoiseach) said "now is not the time for border polls. It only serves to sow divisions".
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@longsummer
"There will be pain" is a pretty cavalier attitude to take about an issue that will inflict extensive harm on regular people in the UK and Europe. The projections (from the Bank of England no less!) are that a no deal exit will cost 8% of GDP, within months. That's massive. That will deliver more of a hit in a few months than the Great Recession did overall. Aside from inflation going up 7% and so on. How many job losses and evictions were attributed to the Great Recession? How many deaths?
So if you're happy for May's government to inflict that on the country basically just "because we said so," then that's fine. But don't minimise what it's going to do to those of us who live, have jobs, pay rent, and buy food in the UK.
68
@longsummer You don't sound like a remainder and spout most of the hard Brexit crowd misinformation. The transition deal is (as it's name suggests) is temporary and the backstop was suggested by the UK itself.
There is absolutely no way that any Irish PM could acquiesce to abandoning the Good Friday agreement. Political suicide is the term, I think. The Irish don't care that much about political union - they just don't want to be an afterthought to a right-wing English populism.
8
To understand Brexit it is important to appreciate that it has no economic justification.
In the two years prior to the Brexit vote in June 2016, the annual GDP averaged 2.6%. In the year of the Brexit vote, GDP dropped to 1.8% with the following year dropping further to 1.7%. Latest data shows a continuing drop while projections are for a further 10% hit on GDP following Brexit.
So, if economic benefit is not the justification what is? Brexit supporters speak of the loss of "Sovereignty" which is really a metaphor for "immigration" from EU countries which really isn't immigration since, as in the US between states, members of the EU can freely move among countries.
My experience over the years in the UK suggests a more cultural reason. A while ago a team of us from the US were visiting an affiliate of ours in southeast England. When we were through, the guard at the entrance called for a taxi with this request, "Chauncey, I've a couple of Yanks and a colored chap for you." The "colored chap" was our Director who happened to be Indian.
For many in the UK, particularly outside of the London area, the end of the Empire has yet to be fully processed, ergo, Brexit.
13
Perhaps the most sensible idea is to put the question to the British voters. When they voted the first time, just like most voters, they had at the very least mis-leading information and at the very worst, outright lies when they voted to exit the EU.
Ironically, Mrs. May was a supporter of staying in the EU. Yet, she has worked tirelessly to support the voters wishes. I give her kudos for this. It is a rare politician who actually will give the voters what they voted for. Unlike here in our country. I give you the GOP and Trump as a perfect example.
Most voters here want affordable and good health care, the GOP doesn't.
Most voters here want Voter suppression to go away, the
The GOP doesn't.
Most voters do not want the wall. The GOP does.
Most voters did not want the Tax Reform Bill, The GOP did.
Most voters want a Congress and President to remember that the balance of powers be honored. The GOP does not.
Most voters want an honorable President. The GOP does not.
Most voters want a living wage. The GOP does not.
Most voters believe in Separation of Church and State. The GOP does not
Most voters want Gun Reform. The GOP does not.
So, at least Mrs. May is respecting the voters wish.
But now that the Brexit plan does not look likely and the British voter is better informed, the most sensible approach appears to be to put it back to the voter and see how they feel now.
325
@Jean Very well written assessment of both the UK and US situations, if only we could count on "most voters" going to the polls on the next go-round in both countries. Brexit seemed to be much about trade and immigration, we have a President that can mess both of those up without having to leave any union, he can do it with a few tweets in the middle of the night after talking to the folks at FOX News.
21
@Jean Unfortunately, "most" voters fail to vote logically. Instead they vote "R" even though it goes against the majority of what they believe in or their best interests. And then defend their vote with little factual backing.
16
@Jean...I'm grateful to you, Jean, for putting so succinctly what the vast majority of us want, feel, intuit and 'sometimes' work for. So the fault is OURS if we do not vote. The ancient saying is as valid today as in the middle-ages: Evil happens mainly not when bad persons do bad things, but when good persons do nothing.
If we want to BEHAVE like good persons, voting is an obligation like feeding our kids or loving our neighbor.
18
Viewed from outside, the situation looks like this: a large number of Britons want the UK to stay in the UE, but it will not happen because someone would have to make this decision, and nobody seems to know who this somebody might be. Another large number of Britons want a negotiated Brexit, but it will not happen because somebody would have to decide and nobody knows who this somebody might be.
It will not be the British people in either case.
A small minority of Britons wants a hard Brexit and this is what is going to happen because the decision has been taken away from the human preserve and left to an automatic device primed to detonate on March 29th.
6
Brexit is the same as any divorce, in a marriage wherein love has died, in the heart and soul of at least one of the partys in the marriage.
The last two years were the same as the act of no longer sleeping together, meetings with legal counsel, and last minute financial settlements which are occurring now.
Contrary to wrong thinking, partners in a marriage are always wholly independent individuals and never surrendered that independence, as is the case with England in that it never surrendered its sovereignty, and neither have any of the nations in the bloc surrendered their sovereignty.
So, on March 29 2019, England will indeed leave the marriage, and thereafter will have held onto the all-important high ground from whence decidedly pro-England negotiations will commence and result in a settlement the intransigent conservatives have always envisioned.
It's that simple.
Regardless the puffery, and pronostigations of impending doom, none should forget that before the birth of the now dying EU, England was a force to be reckoned with, in many respects, including economic, and the remaining Northern tier EU nations are aghast at the reality that their power will now be fractured, leaving an outsize and formidable portion in the hands of an ex-partner, one which has had, and still has far-reaching power, especially with the EU's other developing nemesis, the budding authoritarian United States.
England will emerge dizzy, but determined and able to reassert its power.
2
@Mel Farrell
Yes, England will become so poweful that India and Pakistan will beg to be re-colonized by the Brits. Is that what you are saying?
I really wish the Brits could arrange for a second referendum. Brexit was misrepresented from the get go, with lies passing for policy analysis in a long campaign trying to be sold to an ill-informed electorate.
Sound familiar? We faced the same thing here in 2016, and look how that turned out for us.
Theresa May is stubbornly resisting that, saying "democracy spoke" in voting for Brexit.
To which I would reply, democracy can speak all it wants and as long as it wants, but if the complexity (and reality) of transitioning the country to a workable post-Brexit Brexit had been fully explained, who thinks it would have passed?
Donald Tusk is right to be bitter at "those who promoted Brexit without even a sketch of a plan ever forming a plan how to carry it out safely."
Can anyone really blame him?
823
@christineMcM
What I say is that democracy is not mute after speaking once, and only ostrich Brexiters (May included) claim it should be.
(I know May was opposed to Brexit before, but since she gained power she has switched sides.)
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@christineMcM
The rank stupidity is jaw-dropping, but certainly not without precedent. The Brits might find satisfaction in the rank stupidity and fecklessness of American leaders who jumped off multiple cliffs
Into Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan without a safety net, well defined goals or an exit plan.
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@christineMcM
“Democracy”, like the “invisible hand of the market”, is not some ethereal, supernatural force which works for good of the people. It is run by, and in the case of the elections in Britain and the US manipulated by, those with selfish interests. Aided and abetted, I might add, by blind, low information voters, who heard what they wanted, believed lies, and continue on that course.
61
Another referendum should be held. I believe the public is now more informed about the results of either a hard or soft Brexit and will vote to stay in the EU.
2
Good article that explains the current situation quite well.
It has been clear for a very long time that had the people been properly informed about the possible consequences of leaving the EU, they would probably not have voted for it.
For instance, Boris Johson told BBC 4 months before the referendum "a Brexit would leave arrangements on the Irish border 'absolutely unchanged'".
2
The consolidation of states that yield their independence to a central government is a fragile and perhaps futile attempt at importing the American experience into Europe. The rationale is obvious but not the result. Europe is not America and beyond trade, is consolidation desirable? By adding another layer of government on top of all the others that already exists, the freedoms of nations and their citizens are reduced. The growth arc of federated unions leads to the scariest government of all, the one world government which is the dream of the liberal and the nightmare of the conservative.
3
Many books will be written about how Britain got into such a mess. Now, however, is the time for emergency triage. There is always some hope, even at the eleventh hour, provided British lawmakers have the grit to put aside their petty differences and focus on how best to salvage their economy and country. It stands to reason that every meaningful solution should be given some thought, including another referendum, since the consequences of a Brexit-without-a-deal would be very severe, Those folks who put Britain in this bind should be warned that past glory is not a good predictor of future prosperity and that wishful thinking is most unproductive. The same message goes out to their American counterparts who gave us Trump.
23
When are the people of Britain going to wake up and realize that they don't actually make anything? They have no natural resources and no manufacturing. The only valuable things produced by their economy are financial services and that industry is wholly dependant on the EU. Brexit isn't a self-inflicted bullet to the foot, its one to the head.
58
May should call the EU's bluff with a hard Brexit. Especially as Trump is certain to use it as a point of maximum leverage by imposing auto tariffs on the Germans (who learned awhile back that fighting a two front war is a losing proposition).
@Jack. Hard Brexit means negotiating hundreds of individual trade deals with a multitude of EU industries from a position of weakness. UK unemployment will increase by at least 50% in coming years.
5
@Jack, why are you so certain the EU is bluffing? The EU-27 is somewhere between 5 and 7 times the economic and political size of the UK. Even if you think that the EU is bluffing, would you be willing to bet your country's future for decades on that?
3
@Jack Imported cars are not going away.
The original referendum was based upon false pretences. Farage, Johnson, and Gove ("I don't trust experts I prefer to rely upon my common sense") lied to the electorate, promising huge cuts in government expenses because of the elimination of UK payments to the EC (without mentioning the countervailing transfers FROM the EC). Another referendum would seem to be justified. In the interim, given the crisis looming, the only alternative would seem to be the revocation of Article 50, the application to leave, the high court of the EC has already declared that this could be done at any time up to withdrawal, without requiring any permission from the rest of the EC
21
@ian stuart...
Since Brexit has yet to occur, it's hard to say with any degree of accuracy whether or not the promised economies will be realized.
And given the way the Remainers have approached the process, is it any wonder why matters are so complicated at this stage of the process?
And, of course, there has been the assumption on the part of some any terms and conditions that the naysayer wish to impose will automatically be acceptable to the EU bureaucrats.
The current, roiling controversies have a great deal to do with the obstructionist tactics of those who lost the vote.
@The Owl I rather doubt that you are really from Massachusetts "Since Brexit has yet to occur, it's hard to say with any degree of accuracy whether or not the promised economies will be realized."? Not even the most blinkered Brexiteers are still claiming that there will be any economies. The only people that are still claiming it seem to reside in St Petersburg
Leave won.
The government’s job is to implement the will of the people.
It’s really as simple as that.
1
@Charles The "will of the people" then isn't exactly- as the consequences become clearer- the current will of the people.
8
The original Brexit referendum was NON-BINDING. Politically significant, yes, but non-binding. This is the staggering truth underlying all the agonizing machinations since. Given the narrow result of that referendum (surely so important a change should have required something like a 2/3 majority), the wicked misrepresentations and the manipulation through foreign interference, the result of that referendum looks even more shakily illegitimate. The difficulty of finding a workable plan is only a hint of the confusion and pain to come should there be a no-deal Brexit.
At the very least, there should be a long delay in the exit deadline (which the EU has signaled they are willing to allow). There should surely be a new and thoughtfully structured referendum on any deal, and indeed, on whether to proceed with Brexit at all.
22
@Georgina
I would add that the "confusion and pain" that will ensue because of the endless free trade negotiations should a deal be made will be pretty horrendous as well.
8
It does not make much sense to talk about Brexit in an isolated context from similar events developing simultaneously in other places in the world. Politically the world is righting itself, because the world was never meant to be there for the few to help themselves on the many. This phase of our political evolvement is coming to an end, and it is happening without a clear cut plan, except that it will be replaced with structures more in line with the times we are living in.
2
@Joe Gilkey The argument here is only seems to be make sense because it is so vague. the reader can read anything into it. Meanwhile it presents itself as a dispassionate analysis of the tea leaves, without filling any of the blanks. Examples: "this phase," "righting itself," Oh really?
1
@GenXBK293 Righting itself, oh yes it is, this phase in finalization is comiing to an end, no doubt about it, If I were to be any less vague I would have to cross the lines of civility set by the NYT for comments.
The most honest and courageous thing Ms. May could do at this point is to inform the EU that her country is withdrawing its application to leave. It would be political suicide for her and her party, but it would save the country. They don't have time to organize another referendum or negotiate a new deal. Delaying the exit date will just delay the inevitable. And exiting without a deal would certainly lead to recession and maybe much worse. There may have been a popular vote to leave, but it's clear now that the British people don't know what leaving entails or how to pull it off, and without that consensus, it would be unwise to sail the ship of state into fog. Sometimes, in battle, you have to throw yourself on a live grenade in order to save your platoon. That's the option Theresa May faces now. I hope, for the sake of the UK and all the economies that will be affected by its decision, she'll be brave enough to do it.
32
Fundamentally altering the course of one's economy based on under 52% of 70% of the population voting in a referendum is absurd.
To claim that a second vote is 'undemocratic' beggars belief.
What can be more democratic than having the freedom of choice to change your mind?
73
Even more absurd is following the course favored by only 48% of 70% of the population.
4
@Charles
Representative government absolutely allows for those elected to make the best decisions based on input from policy experts as well as voters.
The remark by Mr Tusk is kind. Cameron was weak and criminal in proposing the referendum. It is interesting to observe that he is nowhere to be seen or heard. At least, contrary to the inconsequential Boris Johnson, his absence is the sign that he knows what he has triggered.
29
@Michel Werner on the contrary, he is being seen and heard. He's spending his time giving speeches (at six-figure rates, of course) about how his sincerely held beliefs absolutely forced him to "let the people have their say" about what route the country should take on the EU. I've spoken to some people who went to one and they were impressed by his thoughtfulness.
Never mind the new evidence that he actually told Donald Tusk before the referendum that "the only reason was his own party" and he was confident the referendum wouldn't happen because his coalition partners, the Lib Dems, would block it. Only then the Conservatives won outright and he didn't have the Lib Dems to fall back on - so he went through with it, against EU advice. All of this is in a BBC documentary that's just out.
3
Let's not forget that Farage, like some Trumpies, is in Putin's pocket and selling Brexit, like selling Trump, was heavily aided by the Russian troll and bot armies.
This was part of Putin's low risk, high reward gamble to destabilize the West. I doubt he expected it to pay off so well.
Considering the paths taken to pass Brexit and Trump, both Brexit and Trump should be abandoned.
73
Conspiracy-fueled dementia is a tragic condition.
Why not a re-vote to scuttle the whole deal, and stick with the EU.
18
@turbot. Oh, no, that would be too easy!
3
@turbot
The polls I have seen seem to point to a new referendum still passing narrowly. It seems like over half the UK wants out of the EU, they just can't agree on how our why.
1
@turbot So just keep voting until you get the results you like?
Sometimes people have to learn the hard way, apparently sometimes nations do to. What is harder to swallow is the repercussions this will have on other nations and, possibly, the world economy.
10
@Anne-Marie Hislop
There is no guarantee that any " learning " will be done in hardship conditions; rather succumbing to more populism.
9
@Anna
True.
2
A second BREXIT referendum is necessary. The first one was marred by disinformation and Russian meddling. British Prime Minister May is a stubborn fool not to do it.
Is she?
31
What is the point in "stopping the doomsday clock"? How will this help in getting closer to a deal? It won't.
The EU doesn't want the UK to leave. But they insist they want to leave. So we should end this absurd spectacle and get it over and done with. Whatever happens - the UK will survive and the EU will survive. And maybe in a decade or so the Brits are ready to join again. I am sure the EU will not turn them away.
12
@Astrid
I am very afraid of the "whatever happens" cavalier attitude...
This is so overblown, just like the year 2000 hype, which passed with hardly a glitch.
Norway, Iceland, and Switzerland are all doing very well without being part of the EU, thank you very much.
Britain obviously can too. They can enter trade agreements with the EU and any other country.
Enough with Chicken Little.
7
Those countries you mentioned never went through a major disruption of decades of trade policy suddenly being changed without a reasonable alternative in place. Britain may do fine in the long run, but it is in for a lot of pain soon.
15
@Philly
At last count (early February) , the UK had about 69 separate trade agreements to enter into. It has signed one with Switzerland and 6 or 7 countries in South and Central America with which is it has no trade.
No agreements yet with China, the US, Turkey, Canada, India, and the list of major trading "partners" goes on.
4
If you read recent articles a lot of good jobs are leaving London for Germany, France and Luxembourg. Very expensive for the corporations and they will not take the risk of having “ all their eggs in one basket “ again. The younger people will have less opportunities in Britain.
15
So where exactly is the Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin of England. There has to be one. Otherwise they wouldn't be in this mess. You know, the area of spiteful, disappointed, angry people who would throw a brick without any idea of the consequences? There has to be one. Otherwise the only plan for Brexit would not be the Europeans planning to utterly skewer the British. See there is a plan for Brexit, it's just on the other side of the Channel. Just a Mueller plans to punish Trump, the E.U. is gearing up to do the same.
6
@Richard Mclaughlin
The BBC has kindly offered you a chance to find the British equivalents of PA/MI/WI here:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36616028
It should be noted that 2 of the Kingdoms of the United Kingdom voted to Remain in the EU -- Northern Ireland (56%) and Scotland (62%).
5
@Richard Mclaughlin Look for regions where years ago there was a lot of lead in the water, pollution in the air and about an equal number of churches and bars on the corners.
That is where you'll find pro Brexit/proTrump voters.
2
If Brexit was good for Britain - so good millions of pounds were spent of the leave campaign - what are so many prominent Brexiteers leaving?
Tax avoidance seems to the the main reason.
Neither the editorial nor any of the comments have even mentioned this shift of billions.
10
Political stupidity has ruled the day. Sound familiar? First they voted for a referendum to please the Conservative Euro-skeptics that nobody else wanted. Right wing radicals took over the electioneering (with the help of the Russians it seems) and they got the wrong result. The Prime Minister resigned (for being totally foolish, I presume.
Now the new "iron lady" is plowing through her plan to which she remains committed even though 1. it lost an historically lopsided parliamentary vote, and 2. the EU negotiators say it cannot be renegotiated. Her government's own economists predict that a "no deal" Brexit, where they seem to be heading, will be an economic disaster. But the big (PM) fool says to push on!
The Times editorial is quite on point, but doesn't go on to the logical next step. To wit, a second referendum that, according to the polls, will reverse the Brexit decision and end this foolishness.
26
Little England. EU gone, Scotland and Ireland with it. Northern Ireland in flames. Could it be a vengeful God Vishnu exacting revenge?
18
It baffles me that voters chose this in the first place... wonderful quotes by the other EU leaders; indeed it seems like a move cementing an English persona as a snobbish foolish novelty nation, evermore dwindling in relevance, much like our worst informed voters have directed our path here. Farewell!
23
Research was conducted by statitistcal experts at Kings College and University of Maryland ( Donaldson et al.), that found no statistical difference in the outcome of the referendum poll as it was within the confidence interval of a non-result ( 52-48%). Why are the results of this research not cited anywhere? This alone was a good reason for a second vote.
18
@VJT
Thank you. You are exactly right. The issue of Russian mischief-making should also have received more attention.
7
@VJT: gee, that's the same margin as the 2008 election of Barack Obama!
Therefore I guess he was never the US President.
1
Brexit and Trumpism are two sides of the same coin, a post-colonial deconstruction of the pre-WWII (Britain) and post-WWII (US) imperial nations. Hopefully, some good comes out of both events - but that still remains to be seen.
9
" their message seems to be that the 11th hour has struck, and getting an extension now might not be the worst idea."
The EU has no interest in providing an extension unless it is for a justifiable reason, such as a general election or a second referendum. Simply giving the UK three more months or a year to sort things out would only mean extending the uncertainty, and would not actually help sort things out, because there is no majority in the present Parliament or government for any definite option.
16
"Brexit is Brexit": Mrs. May has repeatedly used thei dictum a a cornerstone for her policies. Butis it meaningful? The British voters werev given a choice only between "Leave" and "Remain". Many of the "leavers" and also "remainers"would gladly have accepted a comprmise like staying in the customs union but ending the free movement of people within EU. The PM decided to use the most extreme definition of "Breexit" to pacify the Tory ultras. She could have done otherwis eand easily won a majority in the House of Commons although not within the Conservative Party.
4
I would feel some sympathy with the English people if they were not messing with the lives of the Irish. Creating a hard division of Ireland does no one in either the Republic or Northern Ireland any good. The British died, but the Irish will suffer the most dire consequences.
18
@Pat Young
I’ve begun to wonder whether the younger Irish on both sides of the border might be tempted to push for reunification. I know the older Loyalists in Northern Ireland would be apoplectic over the idea but surely the younger people would consider it. It may be the only scheme that would allow Nothern Ireland to remain in the E.U. and totally erase the border between north and south.
20
@Pat Young - The consequences of a UK no deal exit would be appalling for Irish and Northern Irish citizens, but it has been Varadkar's opportunistic gangsterism in demanding the unnecessarily eternal "backstop" that has been the most significant obstacle to UK Parliamentary approval of the WIthdrawal Agreement.
Of course Varadkar saw the opportunity to promote unification, but anyone who actually understood the GFA would understand that the Withdrawal Agreement represents more of a threat to the all-island arrangements instituted by the GFA than British withdrawal from the EU without agreement.
Irish over-reach has now lead to the very real possibility of the reawakening of Ulster extremism, the imposition of a hard (and in Ireland, therefore, militarised) border, the termination of the UK-Irish Common Travel Area and the now-reciprocal rights of British and Irish citizens to vote in each other's parliamentary elections.
If I was an Irish citizen I would be "quite upset" with Mr Varadkar. Throw the dice again perhaps?
@Pat Young
Maybe the time has come for the Irish to grow up (already) and to unify. Maybe the time has come for the UK to fall apart. The Brits have sown division wherever their sticky, imperialistic fingers have meddled. You reap what you sow.
About a possible postponement : From May 23 to 26 there are elections for the European parlament. I have seen many comments from experts that it would be impossible postpone the British exit beyond that date for obvious legal reasons. And I don't think Her Majesty's government wants to participate in these election or even has enough time left to organize them.
2
The rubes that brought on Brexit are similar to the rubes that brought the US Trump. This appears to be the age of the rubes in Western Democracy. Let Brexit succeed and watch (if you are not British) and experience (if you are British) the economic implosion of a heretofore fine economy. Britain will be an economic basket case within five years and the Brits we be begging for re-admittance.
30
@Mister Ed
And for us in the US, there is no one to beg from. Americans will have to find our own way out of the desert...
1
@Mister Ed Your statement lacks understanding of the trade agreements Britain has with countries outside the EU. But I'm sure you won't pass up the opportunity to sound superior and smug.
Brittany Kaiser, a director of Cambridge Analytica, who appeared with Arron Banks at the launch of the Leave.EU campaign, has been subpoenaed by the Mueller investigation into possible conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Russian government.
Perhaps it would be prudent to get to the bottom of this issue before doing something as drastic as leaving the EU?
33
@LVing
Thank you. You are exactly right. There's also the issue of Russian mischief-making which should have received more attention.
7
The Brits muddle through, as we always have. The British constitution - 1215’s Magna Carta, is the most flexible legal document on earth, largely because it doesn’t exist. The NYT editorial board doesn’t seem to realise this. Our constitutional flexibility dictates that every possibility shall remain open, and that’s a huge advantage for us, thanks very much. What plan would you prefer exactly? Your piece offers no alternative. Another thing: whilst I am an ardent London-based remainder, you should understand that the brexiteers did us a massive favour by creating internal leverage against the EU. A lot of what they say is just hot air designed to give May a hand to play. The only issue that remains is the Northern Ireland border, a place where blood runs deep and religion matters more than politics. Hardly surprising it remains a contested issue. But don’t worry my American friends, we will muddle through, as we always do.
3
@George Floyd
The Lisboa treaty signed by UK prevails and in this point this isn't flexible at all.
If you want to muddle through you have to do It within this legal framework. There is no other way to muddle anywhere with EU. UK constitution is not valid for other Europeans. EU law is supranational While national constitutions are limited on the territory of a single state. The problem is: Brits never wanted to realise It.
18
By "start over" I was hoping you meant for the British to vote again on whether to exit. A redo referendum could be justified on the basis that the Russians had interfered and therefore the voters had skewed information.
Or, though far less likely, the queen, who has considerably more power than she exercises, could step in for once, decreeing there be a new referendum; her song tweaked to "God Save the Brits."
And if, by some miracle, a new referendum takes place, I suggest requiring a larger majority than 50% to determine such a momentous decision.
18
I'm sure the English will muddle through, but at least at this point, it looks like basically, they have shot themselves in the foot.
It all looked so easy when it was talk, but now they must negotiation all the trade deals without the (even minimal) support backbone of the EU. Maybe the UK will do better, maybe it is not the disaster it looks to be, but this is the difference between talk and when the rubber meets the road.
16
On the 24th July 1914 Austria-Hungary handed over an ultimatum to Serbia. On the 28th they would declare war to their neighbor. Germany undertook nothing to stop the clock, eager to go to war with France and Russia.
Brexit is not about a war. But what reminds me of 1914 is the surreal attitude of so many British politicians who seems not to grasp that they are on the brink of committing a crime against Europe and their own people, causing a trauma that will last for generations to come.
32
@robert
A bit simplistic.
France had long wanted a revenge for the defeat of 1871 but preferred the Russians to do the fighting and armed and financed Russia accordingly.
Britain wanted the war in order to stop Germany's ascent as a major economic power and was confident that it would be only Irish boys dying on French battlefields anyway.
Germany can be accused of easily falling into that trap.
And make no mistake: The hard Brexiteers do not care about Northern Ireland. They want the EU to abandon Ireland for a small economic gain because they know that it would ultimately destroy the EU if it showed no solidarity with its smaller members. The old British policy of divide and rule on the continent has never gone away.
Fortunately, the civil servants in Brussels understand British scheming very well after 45 years of British membership.
2
RUMOR HAS IT That Russian manipulation of the Brexit vote was the reason for its success. If that is, indeed, the case, then the Russians have achieved their goal of causing conflict and disorder. I find the charge credible, given the fact that the Russians used weapons grade neurotoxin to poison two citizens. One woman not directly targeted died from secondhand exposure. And now the Brits are staring into the abyss. If they have any logic functioning among their leadership, they must seek a way to patch things up, rather than jumping off the white cliffs of Dover into the sea, there to perish. The facts on the ground are that the Brits are going to have to fulfill their current obligations to the EU going forward. I think the most efficient response is to back up and have another Brexit vote. Theresa May and her lot have had enough time to work through their denial of their failure. Frankly, she looks quite pathetic going back again and again to the EU leadership only to be rebuffed by being told, Nothing doing. There will be no renegotiation of the Brexit. May and her party must move swiftly before business start to flee Great Britain, causing disruption and depression of the economy. Perhaps it's too late for that. The crash of the EU stock market will send financial markets tumbling globally. Whether this is to be the winter of our discontent hinges largely upon Theresa May having the perspicacity and integrity to admit defeat to save Britain from collapse.
20
If leaving the EU is such a good idea, why is there a plan to stay on the table in the first place. Couldn't they just stay? The idea of becoming an island unto yourself seems like a strange way to go in a world of interdependence, but then you look at the politics in the USA where something similar is happening, just in a different way.
It all sounds to me like creating a "New Year's Resolution" to swear off something or other, and the reality of having to live up to it. At this point, England will look pretty foolish if it accepts the deal, but the promise of better economic health, if they should go it alone, is no slam dunk. It may not turn out to be the total disaster predicted, but it will be a tough go, no matter what. As a consumer in England, it will be extremely tough. Exactly what would be the benefit that is worth it? Hmmm! I'm having a hard time seeing that, but then again, I'm not anti immigrant(ion).
I don't see any real reason why Europe should grant an extension other than for England to have another Referendum, but this time a binding one. A more sober presentation regarding the reasons for staying or leaving could be made this time around. The referendum could be just "Stay or Leave," or it could be "Leave or take the Deal," but the latter seems so irrelevant at this point.
Personally, I do not want to see a break up of the Western World. I am very opposed to our own dissing of the world order in favor of the Trump Nationalistic/Anti Immigrant stand.
27
There was never a plan for Brexit beyond 'vote leave'. That would have required Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage to actually come up with something substantive, which they were clearly unable to do beyond a slogan. It worked though because the world is sick of experts, immigrants steal jobs, and dont worry about Ireland. March 29th is going be another notch in the disaster which is Brexit.
21
I'll suggest that Ms. May trade Northern Ireland to the EU for some / most of the cash owed to them. The Irish island can remain in the EU as they want; no hard border will exist to complicate trade with the EU; and Britain can sail away by itself in the seas of the North Atlantic, perhaps to regain the vestiges of its long-ago empire (unlikely).
3
The whole Brexit fiasco clearly indicates that the UK government couldn’t negotiate and run a party in a brewery. The win was based on a lie and illegal under UK election law. The only recourse is to hold a new vote, Remain or May’s deal. May doesn’t have the votes in parliament to do anything else. She should stop worrying about the Conservative Party and start worrying about the country.
20
What has this world come to? The Mother of Parliaments has become, with the occasional exception of the Speaker of the House (no--not the Prime Minister, Americans) completely dysfunctional. And the American Senate has abandoned the Constitution in the name of Party Über Alles and Plutocracy. And the White House? To find sanity in Western Democracies these days, you have to go to small countries such as Portugal and occasionally the Nordics.
A new vote, carefully laid out, is the only possible sane move.
11
Is it satisfying to learn that not all of the blockheads are in the US government? Not so much. The 'greatest generation' of the 1940s has given way to a collection of deplorables.
17
Read Tim Shipman's "All Out War" for an explanation of how Brexit came about. There was no real enthusiasm from anyone for remaining in. The Remainers were unable to mount a convincing case. "Better in"? Hardly Shakesperean. The Bank of England predicted chaos if Britain voted to leave. That was two years ago. Where's the chaos? I would put my money on keeping calm and carrying on. Whatever happens, the Tory Party will never recover, so that has to be good.
2
@Jonothan Yes, and the Bank of England just deposited billions of dollars in an Irish bank as a hedge against financial chaos.
4
Personally, I don‘t think an extension would change anything at all. As politicians in the UK had enough time to work out the details. To me, it is about getting sovereignity without acknowledging what is at stake for the UK.
3
Britain is in a cul-de-sac. I hope politicians have learned something about the inherent limitations of referendums to solve political problems when the society is evenly split. Mr. Cameron seems to love referendums. He almost lost the one on Scotland. But, Scotland continues as divided regarding its being part of Britain as before, and British citizens are as divided about the EU as before the referendum. Hence, another referendum is not going to help.
The Conservative party is the main responsible for this situation, but the Labour is not without fault. Tony Blair ruined the Labour party with his unethical support of the Iraq invasion. Jeremy Corbyn is a decent person, but he lives in a unending quandary about the main issues facing his country.
4
This feels like Y2K to me.
Let the Irish Island fix it's own border.
@Edward Walsh Yes nothing like a return to civil war.
8
Many people have pointed out that the conditions underlying the first vote, where Remain was defeated, have changed. Polly Toynbee explained this demographically: many more young men and women can now vote, and in general the young did not vote because nobody expected a Leave win. And it was barely a win at that. To boot, the public was misinformed and there was no widespread scandal about that. Yes, the body politic has been dulled, is affected by a kind of sugar rush -- the British, so admirable during and after World War II, became soft and stupid: indeed, citizens were reduced to being consumers (at the extreme end, babyish and insatiable) for the uncanny British capacity for commercial hype ended up hooking them in. A second vote is a chance for the public to take control of their destiny and not permit a minority of deluded right-wingers to wreck the UK and also wound the European project. It is true that Brussels needs a good shaking up, they are odious, but not by dismembering Europe will we save it. And the world needs Europe. The great powers will all benefit from having this most traditional and experienced part of the world stand as a power unto itself, as a re-invigorated and strong European Union. Prime Minister May cares only about the Conservative Party (a wreck) and Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn is an ideologue (i.e. a robot). Let's have a centrist rebellion against both leaders and a project to stay in Europe and work to reform it from within.
9
Think of the state of New York -- suddenly taking its "Empire State" sobriquet seriously -- trying to secede from the United States at the end of next month. What could possibly go wrong?
6
Let Britain burn. They brought this on themselves.
6
This article does not even mention the farce and the hypocrisy around the 'Backstop' which is an insurance policy to prevent a hard border in Ireland that would inevitably bring back criminality and violence to the island of Ireland.
Brexiteers reject the backstop. Fine, but then they must come up with a credible solution for keeping the border open. Try as they might, they can't.
So they claim it's a fake problem that's been invented to keep the UK in the European Union. Maybe they think they can bully the Republic of Ireland into following them out of the EU? Maybe even break the EU?
At any rate, Brexit is severely testing the mettle of the EU. It's a relief for all civilized people to see that the EU is holding firm. If anything, there is hope that it will come out stronger from the ordeal.
19
@DavidI sincerely believe the EU will come out stronger. Maybe Charles de Gaulle was right all along about Perfidious Albion.
4
Stopping the clock will achieve what exactly? Ms May is trying a game of chickens with parliament. She is betting on a last minute majority for the deal. Stopping the clock will only prolong that game. Besides, I doubt that there is enough time to stop the clock. Getting 27 member states and the EU parliament to agree is no mean feat.
2
The Hard Brexit people need to present a plan that can be costed and the consequences evaluated. Same should happen with the other two alternatives. Then there should be a vote.
6
Centrifugal forces, spawned by hyper-nationalism, tend to whittle away the synthetic fabric of a contrived confederation over time. The Hanseatic League of Europe did not endure. Neither did the USSR.
The historical animus in the UK towards a “Greater Europe” found its contemporary encarnation in Brexit. The arrival of political emigrants from the Middle East ignited the emotions of those already predisposed to go it alone. How will Brexit end? Who knows? One thing is certain. The European Union operated on sound footing in the economic realm, less so when attempting to usurp political autonomy.
4
@Stu Sutin Can you point to ways in which the EU 'usurped' the political autonomy of the UK? In other words, what has the UK government done that it wouldn't have done if it was outside the EU? What would the UK have done if the EU hadn't prevented it?
Your example of the emigrants from the Middle East: the UK refused to take any, as did other EU member states, and there was nothing the EU could do to force them. The UK still controls its borders and asylum policy.
I'm genuinely curious what 'usurp political autonomy' means in practice. I don't see much evidence of the EU forcing the UK to do things against its will.
41
As with our own travails about “the wall”, optics matter. The European Parliament and the European Commission institutional authority over indigenous political matters of member states may be legally inconsequential. But as we have learned in the US, new-nationalists are less concerned with facts than creating a pretext to serve their political objectives.
3
According to the UN Commission on Human Rights, more than 121,000 refugees arrived in the UK in 2017. I believe this furthered the impetus in the UK to favor Brexit.
These are tough economic times for the people of many of the older advanced economies in the world. Hate to see a fairly decent country (or group of countries) like the U.K. severely damage itself largely due to self-inflicted wounds. I understand how millions in Britain, like here in the U.S., feel about their diminishing economic prospects but leaving the E.U. was not the solution. On the other hand, some of the economic policies coming out of Brussels these days are not so popular on the continent either.
11
It is astonishing to me that the Brexit vote was even taken seriously, when voters were asked to chose between one concrete reality (staying in the EU) and one totally hypothetical (leaving the EU, the details of which are completely unknown).
This is like asking a couple to sign a divorce agreement neither has read.
This is like asking a patient to choose between Penicillin and a mystery serum with unknown ingredients or side effects.
This is like asking a retiree to transfer their savings from an IRA to an offshore account with no known rate of return.
It is beyond time for a second referendum. Maybe one without Russian interference (God knows America would likewise benefit from a Kremlin-free mulligan). Maybe one without loudmouth opportunists like Boris Johnson spewing lies and then walking away from the consequences.
Two choices: (A) Stay in EU; (B) Leave, with these EXACT conditions negotiated with Brussels.
The Stays would win in a landslide, and Britain would live to see another day.
39
@Solaris I can only vaguely recall the substance of it but in psychology, a survey is often cited where people preferred the prospect of an uncertain but tantalising reward to a certain but middling one. Brexiteers were extremely successful in selling it thirdly to the voters.
9
As we all approach the cliff edge on March 29th, with no obvious coherent plan or strategy. I don't know if anybody knows how this will go. Many of the problems are caused by those in the Conservative party with wildly different and inflexible views on what the outcome should be. In fact, the only reason we had a referendum at all, is because PM Cameron believed it would counter UKIP votes. However, the result was not what Mr Cameron expected, hence the reason he resigned shortly afterwards. My best guess is that we will defer leaving for a few months and "kick the can down the road".
2
Parliament, if it has any sense will have another plebiscite on the basis that many Brits didn't know what they were getting themselves into.
6
I stopped shaking my head in disbelief a long time ago, but only because my neck hurt so much.
Can anyone find similar historical situations? In my mind there are two, both not encouraging.
Contrary to reality and all evidence even in 1945, (some) Germans remained convinced the war would be won, finally with the aid of some miracle weapon. Didn´t happen.
In 1914, European powers stumbled into the war, after a series of threats, displays of power and mobilizations. At the end, the war started because nobody could back down without losing face.
Delusion, denial, politicians playing with fire.... God help us all
22
@Robert Henry
Well, Americans elected Donald Trump. I think that counts.
Amid all the chaos and cacophony around the Brexit debate and Theresa May's stubborn refusal to accept the reality what seems most likely is that the Parliament will take charge of the Brexit issue seeking extension of the Brexit deadline to allow a rethink on this complex matter afresh.
2
The available modes of access to the EU outside of membership were known 2 years ago, it is a clear sliding scale. There is the Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Ukraine model etc, with level of access tied to contributions and undertaking EU obligations and rules. Theresa May preferred to pretend there is an a la carte solution to negotiate against a bloc of 27 states, and know finally faces up to reality. i.e. the EU is going to pay for the wall.
12
One of the top five moments in British history happens on March 29. It's the only one that sees the British lose.
3
@Tony
Let me just guess what the other 4 might be:
1) Losing the First Anglo-Dutch War.
2) Losing the Second Anglo-Dutch War.
3) Losing the Third Anglo-Dutch War.
4) Losing the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War.
5) Brexit (which shall go down into history as the Fifth Anglo-Dutch War).
2
Each and every time we vote, we might want to consider our choice as having consequences as vital to our personal lives as our choices of career or life partner. Because they do.
9
It was not mentioned that there are two possible outcomes for reconsidering the Article 50 declaration from the UK:
1) An extension of Article 50. This would require unanimous agreement of all the other EU States. Somehow, I think this would be unlikely to be achieved unless there was a substantive reason for an extension request -- It would not be enough that the UK Parliament wants more time so it can sort itself out.
2) A withdrawal of the Article 50 declaration. (No agreement from the EU required.)
At this point, however, it does seem that the EU would be more than happy to see the UK 'just go' and shuffle off.
4
@MR
The EU has always said, and is still saying, that option 2 is on the table and the UK's for the taking. It is also the outcome that the majority of the UK desires.
7
We have our own equivalent of the Trump base. Faced with the growing evidence of broken promises during the Leave campaign, they double down on British exceptionalism and continue to demonise the EU as the root of our ills.
Like the GOP, our Conservative government have capitalised on this blind “patriotism” and unfortunately for us, our left wing opposition is deeply divided and have their own stake in the Brexiteer base.
I was at first holding out hope for a second referendum but I think reality would once again be trumped by catchier slogans and nationalistic sentiment.
I only hope we can escape with some scrap of dignity from this mess, and manage some kind of least-worst deal. This is looking increasingly unlikely.
21
Let's remember that Cameron proposed renegotiating the terms for UK and then
presenting the results to the voters for approval. Well, May has renegotiated the terms and it is now time to present them to the voters to see what they want.
The process has been diverted several times and it is part of the present impasse.
8
Most of attention paid to Brixit is about the likely hit to the economy and disruption on the borders. A lot of the noise is coming from multi-national companies who see their business model threatened. Be honest, no one thinks they care for the British people, or indeed any people.
The economy isn’t everything. In the EU we had to put up with an unelected and unaccountable bureaucracy meddling in our lives, a flow of funds from UK to the EU and we had to allow as many people from the EU onto our green and pleasant land to share our good fortune as wanted to come.
Will the economy suffer? Yes, in the short term. Will there be disruption at the borders? Maybe, but not for long. Will we starve? I very much doubt it. Will we remain friends and trading partners with Europe? I suspect so and hope so.
Leaving with no deal is not as good as leaving with a future relationship secured but it better than delaying.
3
@K.I.Pearce In terms of 'meddling': I'm genuinely curious what EU policy you oppose (in addition to free movement of people to which you already refer)?
In terms of that 'flow of funds': on the back of my tax returns there's a pie chart showing how the government spent what I was taxed. The EU contribution was a tiny sliver of the pie, and came out to £83 in my case. To me, that's a bargain: I appreciate that EU regulations ensure that the food I eat is safe, that they are negotiating trade deals all around the word with the might of being the second largest market in the world, that they prevent my mobile phone company from charging me outrageous rates when I travel, that I know if my plane is delayed that they have to feed me and give me a place to stay and reimburse me, etc. etc.
Please tell me this: how is my life going to be better once we get our 'sovereignty' back?
88
@K.I.Pearce I wish you the best of luck when the UK is negotiating trade deals with China et. al. in the future, on your own.
BTW, in my experience, most people who complain that the EU is not democratic enough are also vehemently against any measure that would solve the problem (e. g. a european constitution or a more powerful european parlament).
19
@D Moore
Over the years I've had issues with the agriculture policy, the fisheries policy, the enlargement policy, foreign policy and Martin Selmayr's appointment as secretary-general to name but a few.
A parliament that wastes money by being based in Brussels and Strasbourg is not a great advert either.
Food safety and environmental issues are important and the EU hasn't always been fantastic at them. We can retain EU standards or develop our own as we choose. If the government of the day selects policies I don't like I can vote against them every five years or so.
Jeffrey Herrmann captures my sense of things exactly. The only addition I make is that there is a question to be answered about how European policy is formulated and implemented. The short answer is unfairly and undemocratically. The longer answer lies in decades of high risk pursuit of a federal objective that lacks a sufficient consensus or workable plan. I feel sorry for Britain, because this is a real dilemma that the binary commentary below fails to understand.
I am not a monarchist, but in this case, I'm willing to make an exception. It's time now for Queen Elizabeth to issue a royal decree nullifying the results of the tainted 2016 Leave/Remain referendum that resulted in a bare majority in favor of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. Simultaneously, She should dissolve the current Parliament and call for a snap election to select new Members of Parliament with strong encouragement to voters to choose Members who commit to holding a second referendum on the Leave/Remain question. I am confident that such a referendum would swing strongly in the direction of Remain now that the actual consequences of the original Leave vote have become painfully apparent.
Your Majesty, for the sake of Western democracy, it's time to lead as You never have before.
28
@Jim Dotzler
I applaud your sentiments, but strongly suspect that QEII is not on the side of the angels in this matter.
3
Not that I think the probabilities are high, but if Britain somehow pulls off a miracle, exits Europe with no plan and gets an economic boost after the initial shock, the clamor for other counties to exit will reach fever pitch. Then the European order of the last 70 years will have fallen apart and it will really be time to worry.
11
@Paul Which countries exactly will be clamoring to leave?
Theresa May has spent the last several months running the clock so that on the eve of the apocalypse she can present Parliament one more time with her deal or the no deal disaster. That is a grossly irresponsible gamble. Fantasies that a last-minute appeal for an extension of time may be dashed, since the EU can clearly see that more time will not bring more consensus within the UK for any acceptable way forward.
The negotiated deal would carve the UK into two pieces, one governed by UK law and the other governed by EU for an indefinite time, possibly forever.
Can you imagine a US president proposing a border treaty with Mexico in which Mexican law would govern the state of New Mexico while US law would apply in the other 49 states?
Well, neither can the people of Northern Ireland.
The negotiated deal is unacceptable. A no-deal Brexit is unacceptable. Only a revocation of the Notice to Withdraw could save the UK from a catastrophe. But the politicians won’t do that.
37
@Jeffrey Herrmann -- "Can you imagine a US president proposing a border treaty with Mexico in which Mexican law would govern the state of New Mexico while US law would apply in the other 49 states? Well, neither can the people of Northern Ireland." Actually, a majority of citizens in Northern Ireland voted Remain and would be content to live under EU law while Britain floats off into irrelevancy. Not only that, but I'll wager that the average chap in Bradford or Birmingham or Bristol wouldn't give a toss for the DUP and would happily see the back of Northern Ireland and the likes of Sammy Wilson. Yes, I *can* imagine that Britain could indeed vote to allow EU law to apply to Northern Ireland and a majority on both sides of the Irish Sea would be happy with it, if only Parliament proposed such a treaty. But the Imperialists like Boris and Reese-Mogg want to drag their dependent state of Ulster with them to disaster. Let Northern Ireland go! Go sink yourselves, but let NI remain in the EU.
J
28
Interesting idea - in fact this situation already exists. The Isle of Man and the Channel Islands are not in the EU - they are “third countries”.
This arrangement could be implemented for the U.K. by having the Channel Islands take over the island of Great Britain which would then be a “third country” within the customs union, but outside the EU. Northern Ireland (the remaining part of the U.K.) would then cancel the Brexit and would remain in the EU together with Gibraltar...! Inhabitants of Great Britain would remain citizens of the U.K. (headquartered in NI) and therefore still free to travel in the EU. What could possibly go wrong?
Solved!
50 days to organise a referendum and then change course? Too late. The front wheels are already over the cliff edge. Only thing left now is how far the fall.
7
The politics seem to be working out that the British will exit with no deal. Somewhere down the road, Ireland might unify and Scotland go independent.
For the UK to expect a marvelous trade deal with the US runs against (1) the UK economy is tightly integrated into the EU, (2) the UK is physically proximate to the EU and not the US, and (3) the US under Trump is utterly hostile to trade deals. The US will insist on a fat trade surplus with the UK. That's how Trump understands trade. Surpluses good, deficits bad.
9
@David Martin For Ireland to unify, the Republic would have to assume the economic burden of the north. At the weekend I read in either the Irish Times or the Irish Independent that Northern Ireland receives an €11bn annual subvention from the UK, which works out roughly to €5800 per person. I don't think the Republic can take on that fiscal burden, and as much as Irish people may like the idea of a united Ireland (a lot of my Irish friends have zero interest in it, but that's anecdotal), when an entire generation of young people cannot afford to even rent an apartment in Dublin, Cork, Galway and now even Limerick, much less buy a house and start a family, the fiscal reality of unification and its ramifications for the taxpayers in the Republic will be a deciding factor.
7
@FromDublin For sure it`s expensive, but it can be done. When Germany was reunited a transfer of funds on an Epic scale started and is still going strongly after about 30 years. Being part of the EU will help though. Afaik the RoI was pretty poor before developing into the Celtic Tiger...
3
@David Martin
Ms May had two-and-half years to negotiate trade deals with countries to replace the deal the UK had radvia the EU.
So far, she did four:
Switzerland
Chile
ESA (southeastafrican trade zone)
Faroe Islands
Insignifacant countries such as Japan had the cheek to let it be known, that they would be happy to negotiate a deal, but in due time and that the deal would reflect the difference in importance between the UK and the EU.
2
Many negotiations only get serious as they approach a deadline. This is no different. The EU is making the negotiations as difficult and one-sided as possible to discourage the UK from leaving and to send a message to other countries contemplating an exit. A deal, if there is one to be had, will only come at the very last moment, when both sides are staring into the abyss and see that they have too much to lose with a hard Brexit.
2
@J.S. I read that there are 40,000 unfulfilled nursing positions in the UK, with many Spanish nurses leaving. This is in one sector; how many other sectors will be adversely affected and what will their total effect mean for the smooth going 0f society.
8
@J.S. On the 'both sides': this assumes that the negotiation is between two equal parties sitting across the table. But the negotiation is fundamentally asymmetrical. In short, the UK has a lot more to lose than the EU. The EU is acting like it we would expect to it act when negotiating with any third party - unified, and trying to get the best deal for its members, including Ireland.
4
Yes, an indefinite extension. It is called abandon A50 and Remain.
28
The UK leaving the EU underscores how little anyone in the UK really knows about much less understands trade. Abandoning strict EU food safety regulations in favor of looser UK ones should create opportunities for food imports from the USA for instance. Chinese, Middle Eastern and Russian money that is already present in the UK stands ready to help service UK debt because it is a good investment. Others will step in where the EU relationship is absent and the UK will be fundamentally remade. The UK doesn’t produce much but consumes a lot and as long as consumption patterns are not seriously impacted, the UK will ultimately see Brexit as little more than a storm in a tea cup.
1
I disagree with you there Rodney, almost every health center, community group, health facility, infrastructure here in Scotland (62% Remain), is part funded by EU, Brexit isn’t only about trade to a comparatively affluent SE corner. Westminster won’t make up the loss from EU Funding to Scotland, patients attending physical and mental health facilities will be hit, Priority Groups will be hit, patients who depend on transport over 50 miles to hospitals ( common here in rural Scotland) will be hit by cutbacks. My Surgical Unit alone has lost two Senior Surgical staff who were Spanish. I begin in half an hours time a 24 hour shift to provide cover, then my normal day tomorrow... so that’s 9am Monday until 18.00 Tuesday... solid. Please don’t tell me nor my patients that Brexit is a minor effect.... J’accuse!!
146
The NYTimes' analysis is based upon a faulty premise: that PM May is trying to bring about Brexit.
She is not crazy enough to want this, if she ever did. But she does not want to split the Conservative Party, handing the country over to the famously hot mess Jeremy Corbyn.
So her strategy calls for discrediting Tory rivals, marginalizing Corbyn, creating a safe space for Labour MPs to favor Remain, assuring the Irish there will be no hard border, and inducing the EU to repudiate any measures that might make Brexit politically palatable.
So far, all of this has happened.
Now she needs the EU to do something that allows her to claim she 'has no choice' but to advance a proper referendum.
9
@Bob-
One can only hope.
2
@Bob T, that is ridicolous. If she wanted a referendum, she could have gotten it already. On the contrary, she is hellbent on getting her deal through, because she clearly (and wrongly, in my opinion) believes that it is what the somewhat unwritten rules of democracy in Britian calls for.
One thing is clear, most of you don't get the UK at all.
One of my friends is an equity partner in a very large accounting firm and they are absolutely convinced nothing much is going to happen.
Yes, it may go to the wire but all sides believe a deal will be done, it just needs standard break clause in the backstop and Mrs May will likely have the votes to pass Parliament.
We can get on with our lives outside the EU.
I voted Remain BTW but think a second referendum would be a disaster
6
@Steve Tittensor
What possible solution do you see for the question of the Irish border? The UK and Ireland have a bilateral treaty that this will remain open, and yet both the UK and the EU will somehow be required to control the border. So will the UK violate its treaty, or will it continue to obey EU rules (including freedom of movement) but have no say in the setting of these rules? There is no third choice. If the former, this will not only reignite domestic terrorism but will also undermine the credibility of the UK. If the latter, what benefit will Brexit have yielded?
20
@Steve Tittensor: this is exactly the kind of complacency which will lead to a rupture Brexit. The EU will not give the ERG the one thing they demand, a removal of the Irish backstop, not now, not 5 minutes to Buffalo.
May's game of chicken will result in disaster, which is exactly what the ERG wants.
10
@Steve Tittensor I'm intrigued about what these accountants consider to be a 'standard break clause' to be applied to the draft Withdrawal Agreement let alone the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement.
3
May should resign and the Conservatives should rescind the leaving status of England from the EU in anticipation of an extension to revamp the exit strategy.
11
Frankly, I wish there was an alternate reality where the EU would just tell the UK “out is out” and that henceforth the relationship between the EU and the UK will be no different from that of the EU and the US, or China, or Russia, or India, etc. There would have been no attempt to negotiate a “deal”. Just set an example for the other member countries. I’d like it in an alternate reality because I don’t want to live through the havoc no-deal Brexit is going to wreak on the rest of us.
The Brexit vote has got to be the stupidist thing a nation has ever willingly done to itself in all of recorded history, with the election of Trump being a close second. Luckily, I think we will survive Trump easier than the Brits will survive Brexit.
147
@Ann "The Brexit vote has got to be the stupidist thing a nation has ever willingly done to itself"
Why did America break away from Britain ?
They should have stayed and the Brits would still be making all the laws which the Yanks would follow.
I never understood why they left
5
@Gazza good point. Since 1776, it only took them about 100 years, the eradication of 90% of indigenous people, the use of slavery on an industrial scale, and a civil war to get through before they started turning into the greatest power in the world has ever seen.
14
@Gazza Bernard Bailyn, "The Ideological Origins of the American Revolution" attributed the separation in substantial part to conspiracy theories; they'd earlier been a big factor in the English Civil War.
4
The element of the whole Brexit farce which only the British can understand is social class. The ruling class goes back to 1066 when it was founded by a Norman invader traditionally known as William the Conqueror. He shared out much of the country among his soldiers, giving them the right to tax the native Saxons in exchange for the duty to keep their part of the country under control - the origin of the aristocracy and the class system.
Time has chipped away at the power of the said aristocracy, but the European Union was for many like a body blow - they felt that the new democratic order threatened their dominance. Power was theirs by right, they felt, amd "Brussels" came to symbolise the danger that that power could be greatly diminished. People like Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg claim to speak for the nation, but in fact represent a ruling class which is not happy with the EU's emphasis on democracy - the latter being something which the British political system has never really embraced, much like the USA with its arcane method of electing a president.
The EU is far from perfect, while the UK is even less so: but the upper class will move heaven and earth to claw back the power which they feel has been taken from them by the EU.
190
@Bill George Richard Nixon's ambassador to Great Britain, wealthy Philadelphia newspaper publisher Walter Annenberg, held lavish parties for the aristocracy. Vast waste of time and money.
2
@Bill George
True, and perfectly apparent to any outsider. Let me assure you that it is not clear to most Brits themselves. Indeed, they would take umbrage at your suggestion - the common folk, that is, not the ruling classes themselves, who might just knowingly chuckle.
16
@Bill George
Terrific comment! Just listening to Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson claiming to be standing up for “Old Blighty” and the little people is as risible as was listening to serial- bankrupt, contractor-stiffing billionaire Trump claiming to be running for president to help America’s working poor. It’s always about power and money for these guys.
41
Among all the debris of a Brexit, and in the agreement May has with the EU, is a rather large "bill" that Great Britain owes for promises made about future expenditures and other items about which I am not specifically aware. It has been referred to a "the Price of Divorce". I have read it is on the order of 40 billion euros. Great Britain's negotiators have obviously acknowledged that the "bill" is just, due and owing.
If Great Britain crashes out of the EU with no agreement about this self-acknowledged, justified debt, does not that amount to a default by a suddenly new and sovereign country? Who in the world would loan money to that kind of self-acknowledged, self-created, self-indulgent dead beat? Does Great Britain really think that the "Great Negotiator" or international financial institutions would ignore that debtor history in financial dealings with the US's former colonial power? Wouldn't the EU be totally justified in actually raising tariffs on British goods, or on any cost of doing business with the EU, or even slapping a surcharge on a visa to enter the EU for all Britons? The EU should do everything in its power to claw back the money that Britain owes and would not repay.
47
@The Lone Protester
Individual British legal entities, both private persons and companies, are yet the owners of vast riches across the globe, and these may serve as guarantors for a while. In the UK this is known as "selling England by the pound."
1
@The Lone Protester - Maybe they will write the debt off
After all the UK wrote of hundreds of Billions of Debt the Germand owed for 2 world wars. (London Debt Agreement)
It would only be right and proper to return the gesture.
1
@Gazza
Well, getting Germany back on its feet was a good investment.
Letting the Brits fraud the EU looks rather foolish in comparison.
Question for investigative reporters: Have the British legal or accounting professions given money to the pro-Brexit vote? They are the only ones who stand to gain anything from Brexit,
Think if it: Just about every contract and business estimate in the country will need to be redrawn. Ka-ching!
Probably 15% of Britain’s GNP will go to legal and accounting fees for almost a decade.
9
The lesson for Americans in all this? This is why our Founders made it so hard to Amend our Constitution, a super-majority of House and Senate followed by a super-majority of the states.
Brexit was effectively a British equivalent to an Amendment, yet was passed by a simple, narrow majority without even a clear wording. No, major changes need to be hard, not just on whims, much less on lies and vague promises.
267
@Old Ben - if it was an actual binding referendum, it would have had much stricter conditions imposed. As it is, it was conducted as a non-binding referendum which somehow became binding and non-negotiable by sleight of hand.
45
@Old Ben: and yet the President is doing just that - acting by diktat and the Supreme Court has made it so that stopping him takes a supermajority. Wow. Just as bad a situation as Brexit in its fundamentals.
15
@Old Ben But our constitution is arguably too hard to change. One of the most objectionable parts, the equal representation of states in the senate, is expressly excluded from the amendment process. Will we ever escape from the electoral college?
To show seriousness of purpose, maybe a referendum or amendment could be based on being passed multiple times over an extended period (e.g. 10 years) rather than by multiple super majorities.
5
It seems that the UK via Brexit is very much like the US and Trump, cutting off their noses to spite their face.
Let's not discount the Tech Bros billionaires of Facebook et al. These frat boy oligarchs sold access to peoples personal information with the specific intent of targeting psychological operations at civilians (the art of spreading lies in order to elicit an emotional response).
Brexit was the proving ground for the high-technology that enabled Trump's election win - automated propaganda, betrayal of trust, racism, Russian influence, it goes on and on.
The conservatives have seized the narrative of immigration in order to deflect from the fact that they are as much responsible for the demise of the middle class as any liberal.
Meanwhile, professional jobs like engineering, IT, research, medical, legal, architecture, pour out of the West and into Asia.
It isn't what's coming into these countries that is the problem, its the jobs and technology leaving the country for Asia.
So here we are, Trump and May find themselves placed into power by an electorate angry at the arrogance of our elite.
And neither of them has a plan.
51
Brexit and Trump are just two symptoms of the same disease. On the US side, a Republican agenda determined to undermine the potential for a reasonably secure existence of a wide swath of the working public. Tories in the UK used the chaos of the financial crisis to impose an untenable degree of austerity. Citizens were desperate to escape the anxiety of no jobs, and no safety net. These voters would have chosen anything but the status quo, and that's what they did.
56
Just say NO. Go back to the referendum vote - which was (barely) won by lies and misinformation. There can't be a great deal. And so many businesses have already left, will GB ever recuperate what it has already lost? Not sure - but stop the damage now and vote again, with a better informed public.
106
What seemed like rock solid alliances in Europe and North America have been poisoned by outside forces and internal fear mongering; the first to disrupt democracies and the second to maintain political power.
These two forces may already be destabilizing the world order and the possible consequences seem limitless; yet we see our democratic institutions upended already, and most observers wonder how Great Britain will recover economically if Brexit continues.
36
Turns out you really can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. Currently, there is no outcome in which Brexit looks good. The agreement May negotiated with the EU is an outrageous affront to national sovereignty and seems to have been designed purposely in order to illicit rejection. The alternatives are frankly, even worse and will decimate the UK economy for a generation. Nobody voted for either of these things on June 2016. People voted for some fairy tale scenario in which you could have your cake and eat it too. The only appropriate way forward, now that politicians and the public have seen the reality of their choice, is another referendum in which the public are asked to choose between the EU's deal, no deal or remain.
61
@Jonathan
You are right, there never was a good outcome. But a huge swathe of the public refuse to see reality, as "reality" is still being depicted as Fake News and Project Fear by much of the media. It is truly frightening how effectively a small group of extremist politicians, the ERG, and their powerful media backers, the Daily Mail, the Daily Express, the Telegraph etc. have been able to ignore and distort the stream of negative economic news since the referendum - and depict a second one as an affront to democracy.
17
@Jonathan
They could repeat referendums until Brexit is defeated!
1
Outrageous?
It’s very fair.
And the only way to handle the “trilemma” in Ireland. Or did you really imagine we would agree to allow a situation which would open the door to smuggling illegal goods into the EU, avoiding customs and breaking our product safety laws?
2
While the US currently faces no issue where various factions in the Congress must work together to avoid calamity, it’s easy to foresee a future where we (and other countries) will face an equally dire challenge to come together to address climate change. If Britain’s House of Commons can’t come together to avoid its biggest threat since WWII, let’s hope the no deal Brexit at least becomes an example to western governments that working toward an imperfect greater good is necessary in the face of certain threats.
10
This Parliament has no clothes. Brits bought the lies and exaggerations of the Leavers without any clear idea of how it might work, but plenty of time for that. The PM left, but new PM May was full speed ahead, ready to show that EU what Strong Britain could do. The EU was not impressed. The EU's terms were simple, our way or the highway. May discovered that she had no real leverage with the EU. They has no reason to make her job or Brexit itself easier. But there was still a year, 6 months, 6 weeks ...
So here they are. No plan, no real deal, no support in a fractured Parliament, and only the choices to back down (stay) or jump off the no-deal cliff. The only thing a delay would do now is postpone the back down or jump choice. She should delay as part of a call for a new referendum, and promise to resign if the new vote is Stay. Otherwise the Brits will not be able to forge a deal that pleases both the EU and Parliament. Brexit was never going to be a 'good deal' unless the EU wanted Britain to leave, which they do not.
50
Leadership sometimes requires leaders to actually, you know, lead, and not merely try to implement whatever nonsense happened to poll well. The Brexit vote was an advisory referendum. Parliament could cancel Brexit tomorrow if there enough MPs willing to put country over party and their own seats. Unfortunately they appear to have been infected with the same disease now afflicting our Senate.
258
@Richard Schumacher You are right; cancelling the out notice is the way to go.I hope the "over the cliff option" will not be selected or the world is in for a bumpy ride...it could leads those countries in a war!
16
@Richard Schumacher Precisely. All David Cameron would have had to do after the vote in 2016 was say: Well, that was a wakeup call for all of us. Now, we're not going to leave because that would be economic suicide, so we’ve got some work to do to explain to you why the EU is a good thing for all of us. And if we can’t persuade you, we’ll consider exiting. It was a nonbinding referendum, not a vote for elective office.
And Theresa May is a bureaucrat who has spent her life on the process side of government, not the leading side. You need to have real leadership to fix this, and the Brits just don’t have it at this time in their history. They’ve already really hurt themselves terribly; US banks have moved out of the City into Dublin, and the pound has lost 13 percent of its value. It’s not going to get any better, but it can get far, far worse.
Please, British lawmakers: Do the right thing and let your people vote again, now that they see what’s going to happen. You can’t go back to the Little England of the past. Technology has made that impossible. So let them vote again and they'll make the right call this time.
71
@Richard Schumacher Seems to be a lot of this sentiment around these days. Parliament should ignore the will of The People and vote to stay. Congress should ignore the will of The People and refuse to fund southern border security. Elections have consequences, and politicians ignore those consequences at their peril.
2
If an extension for Brexit is granted, how long would you suggest that extension be, and what are the specific Brexit-related issues you think an extension will solve?
If the hope or plan for the extension is so that the pro-Brexit camp will realize how harmful a clean break from the EU would be, or that their goals and dreams regarding Brexit aren't realistic and won't happen, then I have some bad news for you. An extension won't change those thoughts or hopes one bit; if anything it will only cement them further into place. The only thing now that can make the pro-Brexit people realize how harmful leaving the EU will be is to actually leave the EU.
That's why I believe an extension would be a waste of time, and thus a mistake. Get on with it; the pro-Brexit camp will never come around under the current environment.
And a 2nd referendum would be denying the validity of the first, and thus really in democracy itself. It's a non-option.
A hard break from the EU, as horrible as it may be, is exactly what's needed to get the political interests in the UK better aligned for the long term future.
6
@RS
"And a 2nd referendum would be denying the validity of the first, and thus really in democracy itself. It's a non-option."
Why is a second vote a denial of the validity of democracy? A second vote would simply be a human acknowledgment of a possible mistake made, recognized and corrected. That is why elected officials are not elected for life once they have won one time.
49
@RS the referendum was idiocy. It should have required a 60% yes vote. Far too important an issue to leave to a wafer thin majority decision.
6
@RS you'd think the lies that informed the "Leave" campaign would make the results of the first referendum invalid. You'd think that many of those who voted to "leave", have departed themselves to the great beyond, leaving (pun intended) many more who can now vote (and those votes being "Remain) would be a reason to invalidate it. Lets call it as it is: the EU will be left weaker now, the West is left divided, Russia, North Korea and China are left growing uncheked and soon England will probably be left even more isolated due to Scotland's growing interest in another Independence Referendum and calls for the unification of Ireland. So yeah, God forbid! the '16 referendum were unvalidated by a second, informed one.
1
Just as in the U.S., Britain is hostage to MP's who are more loyal to their own careers than to the good of the nation. Just as in the U.S., they over-represent the political extremes of their parties, and just as in the U.S., they are being pushed by aging, wealthy gentry who idealize a Britain without dark-skinned immigrants and the with sovereignty of the Empire. They cannot see that the British Empire is no longer conceivable.
94
@Paul King I agree. The parallels between the Trump admin and the GOP Senate and May's Conservative Party are evident: both putting party over country, and both worried about the number of immigrants entering their countries. Well said.
22
@jleeny Right; except they're both only pretending to be worried about immigration, because they know it riles up their base of low-information voters.
10
Just as reports of Mark Twain's death were exaggerated, so too are fears of inevitable disastrous effects of Brexit. Yes, there will be delays, lost luggage, dislocations, spoiled produce, but it'll be in everybody's interest to sort things out as quickly as possible; economic effects will be surprisingly limited and short-lived. I can't wait for March 29th--get it over with! Stiff upper lip, men; the world will not come to an end.
5
@Ronald B. Duke
Putin is smiling. He's broken the EU without firing a shot.
10
@Ronald B. Duke
Have you ever spent any time here in the UK?
The standard of living in England is pretty dire to begin with.
5
@Ronald B. Duke Dear God, I hope you said "stiff upper lip" in jest. Even if Britain doesn't implode, what good will come of this? Putin and Xi will be delighted no doubt.
We like to think it was the British government that built up an empire of world renown, but it was in fact day corporations like the British East India Company that established that country's interests worldwide. And then, in 1914, over Edwardian illusions of "gentlemanly honor", England went to war and threw away not only its material riches but a generation of young men. A hundred and some odd years later, the English are still showing the same inability to make govern intelligently. Let's hope we Americans can learn something from their poor example.
14
@Rod Stevens "England"and "the English" indicate a problem that US citizens have when it comes to describing UK events. Of course Rod you might in fact be English ... !
For NYT Readers it must be emphasized that the UK includes Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales as well as England.
The equating of "England" to the UK as a whole does irritate the Scots, the Northern Irish and the Welsh.
Scotland and Northern Ireland voted Remain 62.0% and 55.8% respectively. In fact In Scotland the 32 Scottish council areas that were used as voting areas and a single national count all voted to remain!
Any form of Brexit will drag Scotland out of the EU against its wish to remain. This will have serious repercussions for continued Union of 1707 which united Scotland and England as equal partners.
It is likely that in the near future Scotland will wish to be an independent sovereign state and rejoin the EU. The UK may even become the Dis-United Kingdom if Scotland goes its own way and Northern Ireland holds a plebiscite/ Referendum to unite with the Republic of Ireland as outlined in Articles of the Good Friday Agreement of 1998.
Hope this helps to clarify some of the more nuanced facts about UK and Brexit.
Umiliviniq
45
@Rod Stevens "Let's hope we Americans can learn something from their poor example."
Seriously?
@umiliviniq
Among the tragic ironies of Brexit is that the logical consequence of leaving the EU is that Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar may leave England for the EU. I would not blame them for doing so. Then eventually Wales and England will crawl back to the EU in ten years or so. The EU will then welcome back a diminished and chastened Mini UK. All so some craven and foolish MPs can claim to listen to the voice of the people.
1
"No Plan" is the plan. Hemmed in by extravagant and dishonest promises and the backstop in Northern Ireland, the Conservatives have little room to maneuver. They are exploiting the ambivalence with which voters view Jeremy Corbyn and hoping that they will still be viewed as the lesser of two evils when this sorry matter comes to some sort of conclusion. Reminiscent of, and destined to be as much a failure, one hopes, as Trump's ill conceived declaration of emergency over the wall.
15
There are few things as tenacious as the power of a bad idea, and few things as hard as admitting a mistake.
The story of the early 21st Century, assuming any future historians are around to write it, is going to be "What were they thinking?"
161
@Larry Roth
Here is a guess at what they might come up with: displacement behaviour. Have you noticed how a dog or cat, when faced with a grave threat, might take a sudden interest in, say, an itchy ear? The threat is overpopulation and climate change. The displacement behaviour is MAGA, Brexit, Yellow Vests...
12
@Larry Roth,
Now that Judgeroybean has made this reader queasy with his 'bowl of cherries' and 'a cockroach' in the midst, the tragedy of the 21st Century began in America with 9/11 (our Pearl Harbor), taking us off to the wrong country, voting again for The Republican Party, giving some of us hope when a Democratic president was elected to clean up the mess, and then casting our vote for a Populist president who appears to be on another planet.
That's right, Folks, and then we watched the collapse of Europe, which might not have happened with a strong American leader, and made the assumption that Britain could survive because of its stiff upper lip.
If you speak to the average American, our country does not give a button about what is happening elsewhere and feels that while this is selfish, it is honest. Honesty is not always the best policy, stubborn is confused with strength, and this New York Times editorial has ventured there may still be time for Britain to put a brake on 'Brexit', a plan that appears to ensure hard times and hardship for the United Kingdom.
A minority votes to cast out the majority, as we have done here, and there are few happier faces than ever to be seen.
Hoping that plans are being made for a second chance to hear the voices make a sound choice.
7
The entire Western world is making its exit from a political structure which has run its course and is now in its finalization stage, no longer offering a viable choice for where time is taking us in this new century. There is no second chance, no starting over, or even any real consideration of going back to what is being left behind. Don't ask for whom the doomsday clock is ticking, for it is running out on a political past that really never did have any chance for a real future.
8
Obviously, hold a 2nd referendum. If "Remain" win, but by only a slight margin, say 5% or less, then schedule an automatic third and final referendum for one year hence. Two out of three to determine whether Remain or Leave is the final decision,
9
The psychologist, Paul Rozin, an expert on disgust, observed that a single cockroach will completely wreck the appeal of a bowl of cherries, but a cherry will do nothing at all for a bowl of cockroaches.
Belonging to the EU and following EU direction may have wrecked the appeal of having a robust economy for many Britons, but there is no "cherry" that will make living without the EU palatable, going forward.
97
We now have the bizarre scenario of the pro Brexit members of the Conservative Party, fighting among themselves at to what form of Brexit Britain should accept. They cannot agree on a single Brexit, then there is the other issue of the EU agreeing to whatever Brexit the Parliament comes up with.
Brexit was simply the right wing of the Conservative Party being given a vote by PM Cameron, to shut them up. There was no minimum threshold like 60%, set to actually start the Brexit process. All the ills of Britain were blamed on the EU.
We know any form of Brexit will see Britain worse off compared to staying in the EU. Surely it’s is not too late to have a second vote to confirm the population do still want a poorer Little Britain forever.
80
It seems to me that the false advertising of its potential benefits before the Brexit vote worked so well because the GB never really acknowledged or linked the benefits it got because of EU to the EU. That failure made the costs - the EU fees, rules and loss of control over number of people from Poland etc coming in - appear much bigger than they actually were.
The comments from Tusk and the Dutch prime minister confirm that. So does the Britain's insistence on continuing to receive EU protection and EU patronage after the Brexit. GB is looking at Brexit as a divorce. EU is looking at it as a son disowning the family.
45
As with Trump’s election, maybe Brexit had some help from the Russians. But in both countries there were enough voters with no understanding but a desire to shake things up so Russians didn’t have to work too hard. In the south of Spain where about 400,000 Brits live permanently, many of these expats voted for Brexit, because they wanted foreigners out of Great Britain. If there is a hard Brexit, they will be forced to leave sunny Spain for their immigrant-free country. Here many voters are ready to re-elect a man who has diminished the U. S. at home and abroad, who is expected to lie every time he speaks, gives rambling, self indulgent speeches and is dismembering democracy. The Russians can save their energy.
359
No expats living in the EU were given a vote. Fact. Over one million in Spain, Gibraltar, France, Italy, Germany and other EU states.
Brexiters migrating to the EU27 post referendum from the UK did, which begs the question of how solid this vote actually was?
12
@Third Day
It is not true that NO expats living in the EU were given a vote. UK Expats living out of the UK for more than 15 years were not allowed to vote.
That was still millions of people, but facts are important.
34
@Third Day
I do not know where you are getting your information but I am British and living in the EU and I voted in the Brexit referendum as did every one else who wanted to. So please check all your facts before forming an opinion.
PS. Except if you had been living in the EU for more than 15 years which applies to any vote
6
pity the opposition labor party has such ineffective leadership in a crisis like this. the economic consequences of brexit will be disastrous to great britain and will weaken european union. many apt critiques have been made about the EU but great britain could do more for reform from the inside than its leave-taking will ever do. it seems clear the brexit vote was influenced by russian trolls just as the 2016 american election and the catalan independence vote. putin laughing at us all.
31
It is so odd that the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union will soon try to negotiate individual trade deals with EU member countries. It does not sound as it is a position of strength for the British. I do not see any kind of a "divide and conquer" strategy here.
I'll be reading the news with interest come March 29th. Good luck with all that.
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@Mark Young
The EU member countries will not be able to negotiate individual trade deals with the UK post Brexit - it's sort of the whole point! The Brexiteers resent being constrained by the EU, which is why they want out. Not that I agree with them.
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The EU would also need to agree to an extension. So that's not the handy escape hatch even this pessimistic article makes it seem.
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We should be getting ready to help our British friends. It is looking increasingly likely that they will be design or dumbness, crash out of the EU with no agreement. Such an event will be a deal serious harm to their nation. We should be ready to stand by them and provide aid and comfort, just like they have with us so many times.
Do not look for Trump to lead the way, he has no idea what a friend is. Congress must act in a bipartisan manner to direct funding for British aid, perhaps a $Billion or so that they did not spend on the wall. Such an act of generosity would do so much more good than wasting money on a wall.
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@Bruce1253 Trump's notion of a trade deal with the UK would be one with a big, fat surplus for the US. I see little chance of the UK getting something like a Canada-style agreement.
I suppose a Venezuela-style airlift of medical supplies would be nice, provided the items meet British standards. But that would probably be ideologically painful: support for hated socialized medicine.
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What? Not one penny for those people. They got themselves into this mess, insisted on staying in it, and need to take the consequences.
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This editorial, and many comments on it, take as given the worst fears of those who fear to leave the EU without a deal.
It utterly dismisses those who just don't believe those fears, and the others who feel that as bad as it might be the alternative of remaining locked into the EU is worse.
Maybe that is right. However, the assumption is taken for granted, not examined. A large faction of the British public and leadership just doesn't believe it.
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@Mark Thomason
Your criticism is correct, but the loss and decline for Britain following Brexit is pretty obvious to many of us.
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@Mark Thomason A large faction of the American public and leadership have an almost identical belief in the current occupant of the White House with somewhat similar outcomes, fortunately for the USA they get a chance to change that in 2020.
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@Mark Thomason
"It utterly dismisses those who just don't believe those fears, and the others who feel that as bad as it might be the alternative of remaining locked into the EU is worse."
'...just don't believe...' is not a sound basis for reasoning. The process has been shown to have been driven by nefarious interests, and ultimately, the goal was never defined beyond leaving the union. The inability to further define the goal, or negotiate with the EU is not a plus, no matter what you believe.
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Elections have consequences. Sometimes, life altering, Nation damaging, irreversible consequences. See: 2016, Trump.
Revote, or just stop the process. Now.
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@Phyliss Dalmatian
Vote again how? We have watched the UK Government struggling mightily over the past two years to leave the EU without having anything bad happen to them. What about this process has indicated in any way that UK voters are now any less divided on the subject of Brexit than their Parliament is? A revote could simply confirm that a [slim] majority of UK voters really do want to leave the EU, and by any means necessary. Then what? Have another revote until UK voters come to their senses? Or maybe the UK really should leave, with or without a deal, and then see the consequences for themselves. And from the EU’s perspective, it looks like Hobson’s Choice; take the deal that is on the table, or no deal at all. And that means no decision is actually a decision. So I don’t see a “never mind” referendum vote as being in the cards.
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@Robert Lanza
Your reasoning is flawed. Try to imagine a revote that is taken as decisive even if it (gasp) confirms Brexit.
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If hard Brexit happens May should resign and pass the reins to Boris Johnson. Let him deal with the mess, it is his responsibility. If he shows the same level of irresponsibility governing as he did in promoting Brexit he will be out in less than a month.
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@serban Johnson has been irresponsible from the get, why would anything different be expected, not to mention, if he’s out in a month how has that helped Britain?
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@serban
If that happens, boris will move to Spain.
Britain was as prepared for Brexit as Donald Trump was for being president. The British voted for Brexit, just like Americans voted for Trump, not knowing what they were getting into. The British people are learning that sovereignty is not all that it is cracked up to be, just like we are learning that making America great again is just an empty slogan.
But Brexit without a deal might not be as bad as it’s made out to be. March 29, 2019 could very well turn out to be like an anti-climactic Y2K, if Prime Minister May bit her lip and asked for “a long extension of the Brexit deadline.”
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@Jack Nargundkar
At least we know Americans did not vote for Trump. He lost the people. The obsolete Electoral College elected him.
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@Jack the Brexiteers reject any extension.
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@Thomas Zaslavsky
I stand corrected!
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Because it has become impossible to reason with any hard core brexiteer, I have become fatalistic. Maybe they should crash out with no deal, watch the banks leave, the auto industry grind to a halt, house prices collapse, the pound plummet, and the borders and ports become a gridlocked mess.
Let them flounder around trying to negotiate trade deals with the weakest hand a country has ever been dealt.
....and then have a second referendum.
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@Allan B I can see it now for this fall: Visit London cheap, but bring plenty of food.
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@Allan B
but when they crash out of the EU, it will be definitive.
If ever they wanted to rejoin, that would need the agreement of all member states, and at the current terms for joining the EU. They include accepting to be part of Schengen, accepting the Euro, and of course they would lose the rebait Thatcher won a long time ago. No way we would be taking back these annoying Brits on the same terms as today.
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@Allan B London: A Cautionary Tale. Perhaps a new tourism marketing slogan.
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My AP Government classes watched a few of the Parliament debates and some students commented that if the opposition leader had been even a little more popular, it might have ended with a second referendum vote. Of course, they all noted that the debates seemed far more articulate than anything that happens here.
Ms. May defends an unpopular position inside a divided party and coalition but against an even more divided resistance. She'll keep talking (or not) and run out the clock until there are NO alternatives unless somehow Parliament steps up and reclaims the ability to drive this conversation.
I can't say I can understand all the nuances, but between the Irish border issues and all the businesses fleeing or about to, Ms. May's stalling doesn't seem in the best interest of anyone but a small group inside her party and against the best interests of many people who actually support Brexit.
In a few ways it feels like I'm talking about the US doesn't it.
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The problem is, the opposition leader is himself in favour of Brexit. That’s why he fails to be the voice of sanity, or provide a viable alternative. He’s just as daft as the others.
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Brexit was at best a handsomely-dressed-up chimera. May may go down as the most persevering prime minister Lilliput has ever had, but no amount of hoop (non) jumping will save her, or her government. What is most disheartening, at this moment of absolute collapse of what was once a Conservative party, that Labour and Corbyn have got stuck in the mud of their own reactionary ant--globalism. I see chaos, chaos, and then more chaos ... and is that an LD knight in shining armor on the horizon? No, it's only an extra from Boorman's "Excalibur," who's lost his way.
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For want of a nail the shoe was lost. For want of a shoe the horse was lost. For want of a rider the battle was lost, all for the want of a horseshoe nail. In much the same way the United Kingdom is dying because the nail was David Cameron, the shoe was the Conservative Party, the horse was the electorate, and the rider was the leader of the UK Independence Party. Pretty sad but not exactly unpredictable.
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@Stephen Kurtz
David Cameron was the horse shoe that was one nail short. If I correctly remember what I read in the NY Times, Cameron called for the referendum that became Brexit because he made a campaign promise.
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@Sylvia
and the US is is a Wall constitutional crisis because Trump made a campaign promise, based on a line that would keep him focused while in debates and at rallies.
Incredible coincidence....but true!
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hmmm...I'm not sure this is quite right...especially the Farage reference. He is nothing but a charlatan who partly caused this mess -- not something we "lost". The kingdom is what we'll lose -- which is our relationship to the EU, our imperfect but crucial union. I was going to post this proverb in its full and correct form. But I get you.
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There are several problems with the EU "model" - the main one being the remoteness of the EU bureaucracy and its lack of accountability. These aspects do not seem fixable, given the nature of bureaucracies, which typically end up costing more while accomplishing less.
The pain of Brexit will be real - but it may be LESS painful, in the long run, than giving up autonomy to a bloated bureaucracy.
There is no pain-free choice to be made.
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@Maurice Gatien
UK Civil Service employment on 31 March 2017 was 419,399 for approximately 66 Million UK Citizens.
European Commission Civil Service employment was 24,428 persons for approximately employed by the Commission as officials and temporary agents in their 2016 for approximately 512 Million EU Citizens.
It would appear that the UK has a rather larger, more "bloated bureaucracy" than the EU!
Umiliviniq
24
That's is not the truth. Do not accept this version of the EU being unaccountable, remote and a bloated bureaucracy.
The Commission is an effective functioning civil service, co-ordinating across 28 member states with MEP representation voted at town and country level, and collective decisions made by each sovereign state.
Such accusations are the propaganda of the bitter and self interested mercenaries who are given too much airtime to spew empty notions of grandeur and invincibility.
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According to your prejudice about bureaucracies, there is no choice to be made at all — if Brexit happens, the British will just trade a remote, unaccountable EU bureaucracy for a remote, unaccountable, “sovereign” British bureaucracy. What, really, is the point?
1
1 The original vote was based on fraudulent misrepresentation.
2) A super majority of the vote required to effect a change of this magnitude.
The issue must be voted on again.
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@True Believer - this fiasco only serves to underline the necessity of attaining a super-majority for effecting change of this magnitude. Half-and-half support for Brexit has delivered a paralyzed parliament unable to get majority support for any decision at all.
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@True Believer As I understand, there isn't enough time to go for voting again before march 29. Even if they did, 1) What options would they put on the ballot, 2) what if super majority is not achieved, 3) It would set a bad precedent.
It looks like most likely scenario would be a no-deal brexit.
7
@True Believer Agreed.
Deal or no deal, no matter what Parliament does, it will be a "dog's Brexit" - a disaster that will damage Britain for decades.
There is no good solution except to ask the voters to reconfirm if they want to do this, or if, after learning what it really means, the majority would prefer to remain.
Similarly, there is no good solution to the Trump administration that will come from Congress - impeachment will not pass, and will not heal the US. The only thing is to depend on the voters to resoundingly turn him out of office, when he can be indicted and imprisoned.
8
This editorial is spot-on. The EU can never agree to any agreement that gives the UK the benefits of EU membership (mostly in trade) without the associated costs (free movement of people, UK fees paid to support the EU and remaining subject to the rules and determinations of Brussels in many matters of trade and related topics). If it gave into the UK's demands, it would have to do so for every other EU member. And that would be the end of the EU.
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@Schneiderman
As far as I understand, the WA that's on the table in effect offers a customs union (without eg free movement) to solve the Irish conundrum. The UK does not want this "raisin".
3
Look at what Brexit was: a non binding resolution, pushed with lies and appeals to cynical impulses, promoted by opportunists like Boris Johnson, who have since cut and run.
This should never have been, and still need not be.
Brexit would be detrimental to the UK and the rest of Europe. It's not too late - yet.
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@NM -- The referendum is binding on the politicians, even though on its terms it is not binding.
That is because the politicians promised, before the vote and again after it, that they would accept the outcome.
They dare not now be seen as such liars, as to make HW Bush's "read my lips" moment pales in comparison.
14
Quebec has had two referendums. Why is there some idea that the citizens can only be asked their opinion once.
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@Mark Thomason
Some people won't see the wall until they smack into it. Europeans are beginning to see that the Dutch PM is right, Britain is on its way to becoming a "middling economy stuck in the Atlantic Ocean". They're taking a different look at what exiting looks like.
Don't underestimate the effects of Trump's new bilateral world order based on zero-sum, bully economics. He's in favour of Brexit so that the US can take advantage of its weakness economically. He's against the EU because they have a combined economy - if they can take advantage of it - second only to the US. Russia and China are thrilled at the chaos.
Politicians' promises will not stoped the continued decline in the Pound, real estate values, or the exit of thousands of jobs to the continent which is all ready happening.
Walls have consequences and another "cuppa" won't help.
60
George Monbiot, Guardian reporter, reports on 'dark money' that funded Facebook and twitter and the rest, to the tune of 500,000 pounds in one instance, and 8 million pounds in the other. The HBO fictionalized version called "Brexit" implies the huge persuasive/propaganda power of online targeting. I'm not sure of the level of propaganda and bubble thinking makes for a coup, but I am sure that this new force is in the hands of a dark moneyed few.
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