The EU is a total mess, it will only gets worse. Brexit is a taste of things to come.
1
I remember 30 years ago, when UK PM Margaret Tatcher did the unthinkable: proving to be so inflexible and annoying that she united the rest of what is now the EU against... her. Including countries which would have otherwise supported UK’s policy.
And now UK is a living tale that the EU is not such a bad thing actually. Thank you... twice!
5
A nation like Britain (a few days after the vote, its economy slipped to sixth place, behind France), one for centuries that has rightly found its place in the rare gallery of savvy nations/countries, should have known, or remind itself, at least, of the saying that reads as such: “Life is full of good and bad examples.” Two of the good examples are: Scotland, in 2014, and Québec, in 1995. They intelligently, with a lot of sans froid (literally, calmly) weighted the benefits of the status quo, that is of continuing to be a not self-governed land against achieving independence. So may one understand the reason why a higher hurdle, instead of a risible one, or a mere majority, was a requirement if they were to become independent lands. Overall, to avoid having a formula for chaos thereafter.
3
“Frexit and Grexit and Italexit and all the rest of it are gone,” he said.
—-
What a bunch of gibberish. One could just as easily rephrase a sentence to suggest which countries have reconsidered their views about potentially leaving the EU. It would be a wonderful development to stop making up nonwords to “save time”, like Brangelina. It’s not “cute”; it debases language.
1
At a Davos meeting last Thursday a journalist from the pro-Brexit Daily Telegraph was informed by the Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar;
1. Ireland will have a veto over any UK-EU deal.
2. That it will be very difficult for the UK to conclude any trade deals with the question of the Irish Border unresolved.
3. That the Irish-American lobby in Congress will never allow a UK-US deal to go through if the UK government has erected a border in Ireland.
It’s a pity that as they embarked on their harum-scarum Brexit adventure, the Brits choose to ignore the political and geographic reality of both Ireland and Britain. Which, in a European context, is that Britain cannot ‘free’ itself from the EU until it has first ‘freed’ itself from its colony, Northern Ireland. Back to the drawing-board, Brexiters and next time do everybody a favor and get it right.
14
Naturally people are expected to wait and see what happens. Brexit WILL go forward backstop or no-back stop.
Anyway, Britain has always been leery of the Continent and this is just an expression/exercise of a centuries old process of exceptionalism and integration in relation to the British Isles and Europe.
3
The EU could barely negotiate a trade treaty with Canada. It has had brutal effects on Greece and, to a lesser extent, on Spain and Italy. Dealing with the consequences of technological unemployment will require rethinking "eternal" economic doctrines. The EU is incapable of this, but is capable of preventing member states from doing anything useful.
It has the instabilities that come from over-connection: there was fear that Greece, a few percent of the EU's economy, might destabilize the whole system.
What went wrong with Brexit was the British government, which showed mind boggling incompetence worthy of the Trump administration.
3
This is a pretty contestable monothematic opinion. My reaction to what’s going on is that (a) it’s awful and (b) it’s increasingly clear that Europe looks worse and worse. Imagine treating another country like this because (you think) you can? Imagine the avoidable long term damage to the bilateral relationship? Europe’s internal problems, economic and social, are far more substantial that the UK’s and they are to a significant degree the product of the same mentality that is treating the UK so shabbily.
1
Wonder if the Brexit vote and some of the leadership shifts in some European countries will convince the EU elitists that while Europe needs to be united for global survival, it must re-evaluate the bureaucracy and mandates they thrive on. Easy to sit in an ivory tower and exclaim that immigration must be open, no borders, when the citizens incur the brunt. These elitists will not succeed long term if they do not recognize that economic immigration is not acceptable. They will also fail if they do not recognize and embrace that each country has a culture that is important to them.
3
@Ma So basically, you support nationalism vs. the reality of geopolitics? I'm curious if you've ever lived or travelled to the EU or live there now? It is ironic that while the Brits have attempted to colonize half the globe now complain about immigrants and tight borders. Borders and boundaries have shifted endless times over the centuries. Change is inevitable. Embrace it if you expect to survive.
4
Poor Prime Minister May got locked into her botched strategy. In lieu of pressing the STOP button the morning after that ill - conceived referendum, she chose to ride a tiger. Unfortunately, however, the others haven't been any better. A sad instance of British chutzpah. Not one person with the backbone to admit the obvious. The European idea will ultimately prevail und pass a super stress test. Cheers!
4
The EU is the fulfillment of Allied post-war planning for a peaceful & prosperous Europe. Hopefully the British people wake up and embrace it before it is too late. Thankfully folks on the Continent have seen the light.
9
Its very likely that British Parliament wont be able to have a majorité on anything, either a deal or no deal. It could lead to a suspension of the exit procedure... Until there is an election, wich Labour will likely win.
Then there will be a second referendum on the EU offer, wich will fail...
Brexit will be dead.
The UK must deliver a Brexit because that's what its voters chose, 52-48.
Period.
4
@James Stewart
A Brexit? There is only one version available, the WA that the UK and the EU agreed upon and signed. Anything else is at the expense of breaking the Good Friday Accord, an internationally recognized treaty it signed - there goes the UK's reputation for trust and reliability. At the expense of the NHS, which depends of European workers through all levels? There goes its health system.
Someone in the higher echelons of the British government needs to stand up and say out loud "The Brexit the Leave campaign promised you all is not based in reality."
6
It was a non binding referendum.
The leave side misinformed, lied and spend an illegal amount of money.
Russia manipulated the process.
Most people still don’t know what it actually means to leave.
A radical change of society, governing, economy and politics requires a qualified majority of 66%.
6
@James Stewart The UK is a parliamentary democracy last time I looked. It is not run by referendum. And the referendum was non binding but "leavers" have been savvy at hiding that fact. The whole thing is a rouse.
10
Since the start of the European integration the Member States have practiced the blaming and scapegoating of the EU institutions, notably the European Commission, designed as the responsible of nearly all the national problems.
It is an easy game, which costs nothing and waive the responsibility of the national politicians.
The hope is that the British disaster will change the Member States attitude towards the Brussels European institutions.
They should actively operate to reform the Eurozone in view of promoting the economic growth and the raise of the employment rate of the youth.
3
"Britain is far more strategically minded than most member states, he said, so it will be a loss for Europe, especially with challenges to the liberal democratic order from Russia, China and President Trump."
That's where the U.S. now stands in level-headed global strategic assessment. America, listed with China and Russia as a challenge to liberal democratic order. Own THAT, Republicans and Trump voters.
5
Britain and America are in similar dire conditions. And i blame the electoral system, this plurality voting system has radicalized politics. Turn to proportional representation, one voice - one vote. Democracies practicing this systems are much more stable and moderate.
6
@Mathias Weitz
The American system in principle works well. In fact, the only thing preventing it from falling off the rails is the fact that legislation needs 60 votes to pass through the Senate. That forces compromise. Only our doofus in chief wants to get rid of that, since that stands in the way of his ego.
In fact, that should be a principle everywhere in Europe as well, that any legislation needs 60 % to pass through Parliament. Anything less means maintenance of the status quo. The outcome would be a much broader acceptance in the population. And the short-sighted legislative special interest activities would have a much harder time messing up a well-functioning society.
8
Two aspects of Brexit make me wonder why the conservatives in England think it will work.
Cultural development is a lot like the development of an organism. It goes in one direction, and after a point, the process is largely irreversible. Exiting the European Union is not going to return Britain to its good old days decades ago no matter how much people wish for it or believe the faux sincerity of demagogues who endorsed the Brexit referendum. The struggle to pass a plan in Parliament has turned into a complete rout. More harm than good is in the offing.
It's not like there was no discussion of the unreasonableness of the Brexit proposition British voters approved. The voters were just not affected by it. So that brings me to the second mystery about British politicians: Russian influence was involved as it was in the US elections. Why do British politicians, facing the chaos now where no agreement is possible in Parliament, not call for another referendum with specific Brexit mechanisms and changes in British Industry? Are they too cynical to think doing something right is useless? Theresa May and other conservatives sounds entirely lame when they say they have to follow the will of the people supposedly expressed in a tainted election. But they can't figure out what is that should be done.
Just as it's complicated to "unravel" from Europe, it will be equally difficult to fix a botched Brexit when the voters decide the choice was a mistake or a fake.
5
@Roy It's not complicated at all: The Brits have always wanted their crumpets and eat them too. They have always preferred a relationship with the continent on THEIR terms. They want the benefits of being an EU member with no compliance to the rules and regulations. This is all compounded by the complete lack of leadership amongst the Brits. Oliver Cromwell was at least a good strategist when he dissolved parliament and declared dictatorship.
3
A highly partisan conservative party
is the root cause of the problem. Some
MPs want hard Brexit( clean break)
and others soft one to stay in custom
union. Mrs. May hasn't been able
to bring the party together. The only
alternative is to out her negotiated deal
for a referendum to let the people
decide. People now have a better
sense of the camage Brexit will do than
the lies of Boris Johnson and Nigel
Farage they had naively accepted before
the referendum. Europe will also suffer.
Many European countries have significant exports to Britain. Britain
does have policy tools to make its
economy attractive for foreign investment. However, being a service economy its exports will have
difficulty. The countries doing well in exports, i.e., Germany, China, Japan,
have susbtantial manufacturing base.
Trade in goods is much larger than
trade in services. USA has perpetual
trade deficit just being largely a service
economy and so will Britain.
4
The parallels between Brexit and with the secession of the American South in 1861 is instructive. Whatever the cultural and macroeconomic conflicts were from 1835-1860, today there is some agreement that a rural , agricultural semifudal South could not preserve itself in a nation entering the industrial post Enlightenment age. The Civil war, a culture conflict, was to be decided by war when the constitution and compromise could no longer solve it.
The North-South cultural divide in the European Union Mirrors the crisis of the American Union. War, of course cannot be the solution.
Today in America,The Federal government transfers immense national wealth from the thriving and populous, economically productive states to the less wealthy and more rural states of the South and Southwest. The EU refuses to sustain their union in this way because it is not a union of a single people.
It is a Confederacy of disparate cultures, ethnicities, and nation states with no patriotic allegiance to the idea of a true Union. Today the European Union remains a loose collection of “17th century states based on “ blood, soil, and history”. But, history has made them multi-ethnic and Multicultural.If they can come to terms with their historical evolution by means of compromise and politics , a United States of Europe can prosper.
4
@Thomas
Actually, the “...thriving...” Blue states are getting really tired of having wealth we generate transferred to backward, conservative states in the South and Southwest- and out t the Midwestern farmers, too.
The 550 Counties that voted for Clinton generate 72% of GDP. The 5,500 counties of Red-State-is tan generate only 28%
Bad enough that we fund them, but right now they are ruling over us. That is tough to take, especially since a large number of them think that God makes the weather and that He put Trump in the White House and that trump should declare himself an Anointed King.
They have guns, too. Lots.
7
@Thomas What you write is true, and it's even more complicated than simply a conglomeration of nation states, if it's European countries you intend, and I'm afraid readers will infer when reading your comment. Many, if not most, European countries have groups and areas within their borders having different cultures, languages (or at least dialects), ethnic histories and approaches to life. In fact, there are often more similarities across borders than within individual countries themselves. One example of this is the Kingdom of Piedmont, which could have as easily become a part of France rather than of Italy. The same for Lugano, a portion of Switzerland that when looking at the map looks like it should be part of Italy. European history is intriguing and should be a must read for today's European countries' leaders. Many of their actions seem to indicate that they have little understanding of history (and many other subjects, too.)
2
The EU is shooting itself in the foot by not being more willing to extend fair terms to Britain. The national economies of many EU countries will take a big hit if their trade with Britain is nixed. It will certainly result in a Europe-wide recession. All that Britain is asking for is a separate trade treaty such as Norway and the other non-EU European countries have. I predict this will be even more disastrous for the EU than for the UK. And it is all the EU's fault.
2
The British ask for much more than that. Remember that Norway and other associate members do accept the four pillar: free movement of goods, services, money and people. The brexiteers were delusional to think to keep all the benefits but to abandon the duties. You can’t stay in the common market for goods without accepting the other components because a common market only can function fairly with all.
12
@Oliver Herfort Thank you and well said. An oft overlooked fact as my German partner has pointed out repeatedly. Brexiteers are indeed delusional.
2
In typical British fashion, Simon Tilford notes that Britain didn't stop the Eurozone from doing what it wanted. Well, yes, matter of fact they did. The British have been in the middle of thwarting all sorts of EU plans. Fortunately for the British, they will now have plenty of opportunity to make all the strategic plans for them selves. We all understand how complicated thinks get when you have to talk to 27 other countries.
3
@RPU The Brits still think like colonialists. They still think the world should bend to their bidding. It's clearly an identity crisis.
2
One aspect of Brexit that will stand out for years to come is how it arose as a referendum erroneously advanced on the internet and by rabble rousing and having no legal force, and yet serving as a pretext to cause grievous harm to Britain.
The spectacle of Theresa May, the Prime Minister, espousing this misdirected and poorly supported referendum as the “will” of the people, is a low water mark in political posturing. And the failure of the press to point out the entire debacle is a simple power grab by the 1/4% at the expense of the Country is disgusting.
Despite the articulate Parliamentary debate, the behind-the-scenes manipulation of MPs managed to achieve Brexit with only 16 votes.
Democracy at work? Or Oligarchy in disguise?
8
FYROM votes to become Northern Macedonia and Syriza managed to approve the name change in the Hellenic Parliament. Trade between the two nations will follow and for NM admission to the EU and NATO. Would this example propel Serbia to get along with its neighbors? Imagine within the EU a United Balkans. China is knocking on the door. Russia’s trying to put a foot in the way. Hungary and Poland may wake up too because it’s not in their economic or strategic interest to continue to be the dividers. Notwithstanding the exploitative nature of NEO-liberalism a more united EU would be an economic powerhouse. “It’s about the economy, stupid!”
4
I can’t really separate this insanity from the way that Trump and Trumpists demand every single benefit that capitalism and globalism make available, and at the same time shriek that there better not be the slightest consequence, change, or responsibility from the expansion of globalism and capitalism.
Seems kind of weird.
3
In truth it’s 5 years from now when we can assess Brexit...Not the present muddle
1
The smart analysis doesn't always turn out to be accurate or correct. The UK may prosper outside of the German dominated EU, and slandering the Leave voters doesn't mean your narrative is true. I'd say the EU is the basket case and not the UK. Merkel and the Germans run the non-democratic EU and they're not negotiating with the UK in good faith.
1
@Tom Clarification:
UK refers to Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland remains in the EU.
Great Britain refers to England, Scotland and Wales.
Scotland prefers to go with the EU. Wales voted to leave the EU. For future reference, there's no such thing as a "United Kingdom".
3
could someone get Ms. May and Mr. Corbyn to read Barbara Tuchman's March of Folly to set this series of miscalculations and blind alleys in to historical (and tragic) context. Not that I think anything is going to put them on a better path. Its like watching a slow-motion train wreck.
3
The EU was meant to peacefully tie Germany to the socioeconomic political future of Europe. Starting and losing two world wars has consequences.
Germany must subordinate it's potential demographic diplomatic military scientific and technological advantages to economics and politics. Not quite a United States of Europe. But a reasonable facsimile.
Paradoxically the British royal house has been German for centuries. And there are more German Americans than any other kind of American by ethnic cultural and language heritage origin.
2
The Europeans are rediscovering Benjamin Franklin
We must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly,
we shall all hang separately.
As to
" Nor has Europe found consensus on how to deal with them. "
Let's hope the European do better than our founding fathers, who so papered over their disagreements, that the US Constitution failed the most fundamental test of any Constitution
Preventing Civil War
3
Brexit is the chickens coming home to roost for centuries of British (read: English) arrogance and misplaced beliefs in the nation's myths of greatness that are utterly disconnected from history. While not literally true, no nation is an island, and none are unique or exceptional; we are all interconnected.
This is the lesson the United States is incapable of learning in the abstract. In Murat Halstead's book, "The War Claims of the South", published in 1867, he wrote, "The lessons of the war that should never depart from us is that the American people have no exemption from the ordinary fate of humankind. If we sin, we must suffer for our sins, like the Empires that are tottering and the Nations that have perished.
Your chickens are coming home to roost one day.
7
Why would any country want to be told what to do by Brussels?
1
Brexit is the last stand of any member nation against the hegemony of Germany over Western Europe, and it is failing - they're allowing German ministers to grandstand with bilicous threats they'd never enforce. Merkel and Germany have imposed fiscal conservativism on a contentment that, over the past ten years, has needed deficit spending, especially amongst the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain). Germany has imposed a strange sort of guilt-ridden pacifisms over Europe - failing to attack the root cause of the refugee crisis (the evil of Iran, Al-Assad, and Russia in Syria and the rest of the Middle East) while forcing its neighbors to accept overwhelming numbers of refugees (literally overwhelming - overwhelming their social welfare systems, overwhelming their job markets, overwhelming their commercial infrastructures, and overwhelming their law enforcement). Germany has imposed hyper-regulations - down the thread size for bed linens - that only a German would love (or accept). And now German industrialists, the same people who let Russia have the Ukraine to protect their energy supplies, are bullying the UK ("We will not trade with you if you don't accept all the other parts of EU membership!" Yeah - has anyone told BMW or Siemens?) The American left has been fed a bill of goods - Brexit is not the UK version of Trump. It is a very rational response to the Fourth Reich.
1
Please refrain comparing the E.U. to NAZI Germany by calling it the “Fourth Reich”. The E.U. received the Nobel price of peace in 2012. It has been the most successful supranational institution in world history bringing the longest period of peace and prosperity to Europe. Your comment demonstrates poor taste out of ignorance or willful distortion.
10
@Oliver Herfort Thank you. For some people geopolitics is just too complicated.
3
There is simply no choice but the E.U. Individual countries would increasingly be eaten alive by the big fish. Sustaining European ideals of individual freedoms and a welfare state within a capitalist economy would be impossible alone.
There is simply no other bloc in the world where as much attention is paid to the well-being of every citizen, where wealth is redistributed so widely, where education and culture are so widely revered and promoted and available. Europeans may not know all this, or they may not feel it, but it is true nonetheless. The E.U. is a truly amazing accomplishment, and has brought about mind-boggling prosperity, peace, and freedom.
Brexit serves to shine a light on the obvious, yet widely ignored, qualities of this Union. I guess we should thank Britain for that, and for its language, which remains, I think, the E.U.'s lingua franca.
Thank you Britain.
Also please remember that you have a few weeks, dear Britain, to change your mind and rip up the divorce papers.
19
Brexit is a political nightmare. The leadership holds in place because the Brexiteers don't want to lose power. At a certain point the UK will leave the EU, an austerity damaged mess. The EU has been spared the dumb damaging mistakes of the UK. But the EU has plenty of problems. No deficit spending or devaluing currency to fight a recession. The elitist leaders of the EU are frightened by the restive citizenry. Populism is another word for anarchy and rejection of the EUs own problem of maldistribution of wealth. Then they have a lesser form of anti Russia hysteria. Ultimately the life style super power will have to come to terms with the fact that most of the EU is not affluent. The nationalist forces in the several countries work against one another.
1
There is a tendency in humanity to seek simple solutions when life gets too difficult. (We underestimate ourselves in deciding what is "too" difficult, but that's another story.) It's just a form of curling up into the fetal position, and impulses towards Walls are just a desire to crawl back inside the placenta, the last time we were utterly warm, safe, and protected deep in our memory.
The world's problems have never been simple, and that just gets more so as technology advances, the world continues to shrink operationally, and it fills up with more and more people. It is no longer rational to think that we can close ourselves up in a womb, let everyone else go fish, and still prosper. We have to deal face on with mess; avoiding that only makes mess worse, not better. Those who say it can be walled off are either deluding themselves, or deluding others for political gain. It can't be walled off without unintended self harm, and even then that is only a stop gap tactic.
Time for our species to grow up. We're now at the point where it's not just nuclear annihilation that threatens us all. Stuff like Brexit and whining about "caravans" are just part of growing pains. What you don't do is take political hormones or undergo sociological surgical operations to stunt growth. You accept it and deal with it so that everyone makes out for the best...or everyone but those who rule will suffer the worst.
17
I look forward to Britain leaving so they can no longer sabotage more sensible regulation of the financial sector. On the other hand, should they get their act together under a socialist government and stop being a Trojan horse for the US , I would very much want them to rejoin.
11
Political stupidity has ruled the day. Sound familiar? First they voted for a referendum that nobody wanted. Right wing radicals took over the electioneering (with the help of the Russians it seems) and they got the wrong result. The Prime Minister resigned (for being totally foolish, I presume).
Now the new "iron lady" is plowing through her plan to which she remains committed even though 1. it lost an historically lopsided parliamentary vote, and 2. the EU negotiators say it cannot be renegotiated. Her government's own economists predict that a "no deal" Brexit, where they seem to be heading, will be an economic disaster. But the big (PM) fool says to push on!
12
@LennyM So you are willing to ignore what people voted for because YOU don't agree with the results.
@Jackson What you and I agree on is irrelevant since we are here and not there.*
It is really questionable though here or there whether such matters, in what is not a democracy but rather a representative democracy, should be put to the people. But having learned a lot about what Brexit REALLY means (including a decline in economic welfare), polls in the UK seem to show that remainers would win in a new referendum.
*One exception is that European unity has brought about unprecedented decades of peace. As the US was inevitably involved in European conflicts, this is a blessing for us.
2
@Jackson It is a parliamentary democracy. The referendum was non binding. And it is not a country run by referendums. What's so hard to understand about this.
3
Observing the UK Parliament’s shenanigans, I believe Theresa May’s main aim now is to save an ailing Tory party from further division, through placating extreme Brexiteers, and to stay in power. She will do whatever’s necessary to achieve that goal. Her manoeuvres are nothing whatever to do with what is good – never mind best – for the country, nor bringing together people and different viewpoints.
The launching of a yes/no referendum – largely to ‘resolve’ Tory splits on Europe - on a highly complex matter was sheer stupidity. Deliberation and reflection gave way to emotion and prejudice that has created a highly toxic atmosphere in the country.
I am of the generation that regards the creation of the European Union, with its interlocking economic, political and cultural ties as a bulwark against war in Europe, a mission that has been largely successful and which has brought prosperity to many. It has been very easy for the UK government to blame Brussels for its own failure to fulfil economic responsibilities including to tackle poverty which falls within the national sphere.
So what are we left with now? It is pretty shaming to know that plans are afoot to avoid food shortages in the UK (some shop shelves are already emptying), to try belatedly save jobs and to impose marshal law in the event of civil unrest! The only good that could come of this is to discourage other EU member states, like Italy, from taking the exit path.
Sally Marullo, London, 31 Jan 2019
13
@Sally Marullo
Not only prosperity, but it has brought peace, fulfilling the original intent of the original "common market" framers.
4
In 2016 Americans voted for Donald Trump to be the next POTUS even though the idea of someone as unqualified, unprepared and ridiculous as Trump was thought by the cognoscenti, before the election, to be an impossibility. Similarly, despite the disadvantages of secession from the E.U. a majority of Britons (perhaps with some encouragement by the Russians) voted against their own self-interest for Brexit. As has been proven many times recently, these examples of democracy in action proves the old adage that 'Democracy contains within itself the seeds of its own destruction. The next generation of Britons will rue the decision their parents made to remove England from the EU. It is only a matter of time before Scotland declares it's own Independence and a diminished Great Britain becomes tiny England with a few counties of Northern Ireland. How sad!
18
@RLW
Why not go the whole hog and let Wales and Ulster go their own way too? All those bits that the English kings forcibly added to the realm to create a 'great' Britain, not to mention the the remnants of the now passe empire.
The Anglais can go back to being shopkeepers.
1
I still don't understand why May's party doesn't call for another vote, knowing as they do that the vote to exit was flawed by Russian influence. Britons are now, hopefully, more factually informed of the consequences, thus better able to Express their desire to stay or go.
6
They don't need another vote. That referendum wasn't binding anyway. What they need is for someone to stand up and say no, we will not leave for a lie.
10
@Lorem Ipsum So. Well. Said.
1
@Nancy No other vote is needed: It was a non binding referendum. It means nothing. It never did. It is a country run by parliament not by referendums. It was a rouse. Theresa May is powerless at this point.
1
Travelling to Europe frequently over the past 35 years I have seen that the EU benefits its member states. The introduction of the Euro has jump started the economy in the Mediterranean countries and raised the standard of living for all. Yes, Greece over-borrowed and got itself in a crisis, but that is 3% or less of the European GPA. When this paper speaks of a Euro currency wobble, I say visit Europe, where the standard of living exceeds that of the U.S. Infrastructure and public transportation is state of the art there. Cities are not rat infested. Food is not doused with chemicals. And, it takes $1.20 to buy a Euro. It is immigration that made the Brits jumpy, as it did in many member states. If the Brexit vote was nonbinding, then drop it. Some will grumble, but Britain will flourish.
21
@an observer You are completely wrong about the standard of living. Some of us enjoy air conditioning, heat, good plumbing. We also expect people to work more than a 35 hour week. Just ask those in Greece if they enjoy the influx of immigrants.
@Jackson Do you live or travel there often? I do. And so does the author of the original post--"an observer." As for immigration making the Brits jumpy, they are hypocrites for being disconnected from their history as colonizers.
2
What it's come down to is this - to protect the narrow interests of the Firm, May would rather crash out of the EU than submit to a fresh referendum by voters, who this time would be informed on what's truly at stake.
"... the (final) Battle of Brexit is about to begin. ... Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties, and so bear ourselves, that if the somewhat United Kingdom lasts for a bit longer, men will still say, "This remaining in the EU was the only realistic, practical choice, for the good of the UK."
With apologies to WC.
3
@John L There first referendum was non binding. Any future one would be so as well. It is a country run by a parliament not referendums. If the latter were the case, then why not just run England by lottery?
2
Face it. Britain joined the EU in 1973 as a way to avoid its depressing economic decline, after years of trying. That same year witnessed the Three-Day Week, electricity rationing, spiraling inflation and all-around worker unrest. Once accepted, Britain never joined the ERM and decided to remain on the sidelines. Thatcher came along and won budget rebates from the EU. This whole Brexit boondoggle is nothing new. Britain has always wanted to be separate, but equal. Well, now they are going to get separate again. We'll see how not so equal works out. Let's hope they don't see a repeat of 1973.
22
@Spanky "Britain joined the EEC in 1973" Not the EU.
9
Other European countries manage to do well outside the EU, so it's not impossible that Britain could do the same. Will it be as prosperous on its own? Doubtful. Will it be socially stronger by having greater control over its own internal workings? Maybe. Will it be able to go back to the good old "carry on" days? Never.
But there's a lot of satisfaction in exercising sovereignty over your own land, something the EU took away. It'll be interesting to see the state of affairs there in a decade or two. They will probably be poorer, but will they be happier?
7
Which European countries would those be? The Scandinavian socialist ones?
By the way, that “they done took our sovereignity,” argument is just plain silly. Unless of course your “they,” is Vlad the Putin, who meddled in the Brexit campaign and vote.
6
@Robert
Yes, I was referring to Norway and Switzerland, and perhaps Iceland. What's wrong with them?
1
@Amanda
Norway is tiny and homogeneous. Switzerland has a long history of isolationism that works due to its banking system. The UK depends on international finance, and trade. It is too late to change that.
5
Whether or not I think that Brexit was a good idea, I think this process has demonstrated the EU's propensity for acting the tyrant in negotiations.
Britain's problems were threefold:
1. A close initial vote meant a lot of unhappy people.
2. Theresa May negotiating from an increasingly weak position, causing her to lose support.
3. The EU's attitudes towards negotiating has seemed to me (admittedly an outsider) hostile and punitive.
The real winner/loser can't be declared yet; who knows what the state of things will be in the next decade.
4
@James
"I think this process has demonstrated the EU's propensity for acting the tyrant in negotiations."
Au contraire! The state of Brexit is an example of a circular firing squad. That is not the fault of the EU, but rather the lies perpetrated upon the British public by Brexit-hawking politicians. The latter claimed that they could get all the benefits of EU membership, without (essentially) paying for them; i.e., "Money for nothing" (Dire Straits,1985). The EU merely burst that bubble; welcome to reality! We all thought our parents and teachers were tyrants at one time...when we were children! Time for Britain and their parliament to grow up.
12
Oh? You mean the EU prcticed the art of the deal, and refused to pay Britain lavishly for howling at the EU and demanding that they surrender?
Why, how dare they.
9
@James
1. "A close initial vote" with a different result would still have meant "a lot of unhappy people"
2. Theresa May triggered article 50 BEFORE even considering any sort of plan, which has resulted in this debacle
3. The EU's negotiating stance has been one of incredulity at Britain's insistance on having it's cake and eating it.
Britain voted to leave the EU based on large doses of misinformation from Brexiteers. Remainers, arrogantly assumed that the British public would never vote to leave, thus made little or no attempt to state their case. Britain's inability to state clearly to the EU what they actually wanted NOT the EU's negotiating tactics has led to this.
4
Britain has delighted the world since they voted to leave the EU with fantastical tales not even surpassed by their Harry Potter! We´re only awaiting to see if we've been watching Harry Potter and the deadly hallows or Harry Potter and the prisoner of their own making!
9
Britain really doesn't have a choice about membership of the EU for economic reasons alone, so holding a referendum about it was a pointless exercise. It already tried surviving outside during the 1950's but it didn't work and it then spent over a decade trying to join up but was denied twice by De Gaulle. Britain's membership only got accepted after he had died. If history teaches them anything it's that they always join everything too late and so miss out on a lot of the benefits. They foolishly passed up on the invitation to join in 1950 because they were still dreaming about their dwindling empire and so missed out on becoming a founding member, something they have never got over.
23
Don't worry, Britain. There's room on the U.S. flag for a few more stars--as long as you don't mind the 13 stripes' reminder of a pretty spectacular exit way back when.
13
Canada took Newfoundland into confederation after WWII, when Britain could no longer afford it. Might Canada come to the mother country's rescue instead?
3
As a practical matter, the Good Friday Agreement acted as a UK promise not to leave the European Union. The membership in the EU and the terms of the Good Friday Agreement are so intertwined that the Good Friday Agreement essentially cannot operate without UK membership in the EU. (De jure, the two agreements can operate independently, but as a practical matter, they cannot.)
By leaving the EU, the UK is essentially breaking that Good Friday Agreement, unless they follow through with May's deal. May's agreement essentially is a permanent second-class relationship with the EU. Kudos to the EU for sticking up for Ireland in this process.
As for the Euro, who wants their savings converted to new lira, new pesetas, or new escudos? Even the fanciful notions of Texas or California becoming independent countries lose their glamour when you think of having savings converted to Texas or California dollars. And without a stable currency, you have capital flight, don't you.
I understand that in order to keep the pound stable outside of EU membership, UK interest rates will have to be on the growth-killing high side. At least that is the forecast, isn't it? Even in the UK, without a stable pound you will have capital flight, don't you?
20
@Mark Allen
Don't forget that one of the main British arguments against Scottish secession was that they (Scotland) would then not be part of the EU. So now what's the argument against Scottish secession? Oh what a tangled web we weave...!
4
Ironically the EU standing firm on the Irish backstop ( which they have to do in International Law pertaining to the 1998 Belfast Agreement), could yet be the saviour of the international humiliation of the xenophobic, verging on racist Leave campaigners. The UK Press attacks in the EU are frankly despicable and full of untruths. The EU has had a role in maintaining peace in Europe for 70 years. For that very reason alone... we need European Cooperation not the opposite.
42
@Alan Harvey
Why cant there be cooperation with a brexit? If Europe was attacked wouldn't Britain support their neighbors?
Dont unelected Brussels officials have too much say in British affairs?
2
That's what NATO is for, @chad, not the EU.
7
NATO is supposed to be for countering Russian aggression, not maintaining peace an stability in Europe. The European Union is indeed the primary vehicle for preventing international conflict within Europe.
7
In 1914, the European continent as a whole was at the height of its economic, political and cultural power in the world. Yet in less than thirty years those societies were destroyed in a civil war that left the continent devastated and divided into two areas under the hegemonic control of two non-European powers. Faced with this immense tragedy, some people posed the problem of how to get out of the perverse logic of nations born in the eleventh century. Since no nation had really won - not even France and Great Britain - the solution given was to go beyond the concept of nation. That is where the European Union's project was born and the way to start it was through economic integration. It was certainly not possible to resort to good feelings after all that blood spilled! The problem arose when the generations who had lived through the horrors of war were replaced by those born in abundance and peace who later ignored - in the Latin sense of the term - history and acted in the short term by mere political calculation. Let me conclude by recalling that the euro is another story. Currency was a badly and quickly done political operation to digest the reunification of Germany by France and all the other countries. But we European citizens trust in the future, because Europe is not just a geographical expression, but something deeper.
43
@Flavius WW! And WW2 were wars of aggression by Germany. They were not a 30 year European Civil War.
4
@Lefthalfbach
Marshal Ferdinand Foch said about Treaty of Versailles (1919): "This is not peace. It is an armistice for 20 years".
8
@Flavius It was a 30 year war. t was not a Civil War. Anyway, an armistice happens between nations.
Also, a the time, in 1918, Pershing said the Amistice was a huge mistake because it would alllow the Germans to believe that they had not been defeated. H was for pressing on Nd the US Army was closing on Sedan, which would have cut the German Army’s LOC and compelled their surrender.
Pershing said, in November of 1918, that we would have it all to do over again in 20 years. That is why we pulverized Germany in WW2- so that they could never again imagine that they had been “...stabbed in the back...”
You can’t negotiate if you do not have a seat at the table. Brexit seems foolish indeed for the future economic health of Great Britain. But the leave vote was never about economic health. It was about fear and resentment of immigrants and EU rules. I wish GB well, but I fear that they are in for a rough ride. One of the biggest fallacies sold to leave voters was that GB would be better off without the EU and could go it alone. We live in a global economy, and no country can go it alone, including one as rich and powerful as the US. Putin has been uncommonly successful in undermining the West. I hope he can be stopped.
66
@BG
Britian can form new trade alliances, Trump has already said he would support it.
We should support our mother country and sister countries in trade, military alliances, etc. Putin has no chance against Britain, America, Canada, Australia and other NATO countries, economically or in military matters.
Democrats will cut our military budget drastically, making Russia and China more dangerous and more willing to annex, stir up trouble. Remember Obamas line in the sand in Syria? Nothing happened.
1
@BG Actually, the biggest fallacy sold to leave voters was that GB could exit the EU and keep all the privileges of belonging to it. You can't destroy your cake and eat it, too.
17
Funny how Trumpists forget ir never seem to know that some joints named, oh, “France,” and “Holland,” figured kinda prominently in making our Revolution successful. Not to mention where Washington’s army so often came from. Weird, really.
I guess you get a tad bit cinfused and forgetful, when your only available response to finding out that the intelligence chiefs Trump appointed just loudly told everybody that nope, Iran isn’t building nukes, nope, ISIL isn’t extinct, and nope, North Korea ain’t gonna get rid of its nukes, is that “OBAMA drew a line in the SAND!!”
3
Pax Britannica began its decline in the early twentieth century. By the end of WW II Britain had relinquished most of its colonies, heralding the end of the British Empire. Now, with Brexit, the UK has essentially “shot itself in the foot.” Aside from the immediate social amd economic consequences, London will likely lose its prominence as one of the world’s largest financial centers, quite possibly eroding the last remnants of its global hegemony.
David Cameron first proposed the Brexit referendum in 2012. However, when it took place in 2016 it was not binding. Nevertheless, Theresa May decided to carry out the will of the slight majority. Though growing inequality and immigration are primary for driving polarization in Britain leading to these circumstances, history might very well place the blame of weakening the U.K on Cameron and May.
32
It's interesting to see EU members gain an appreciation for the benefits of the EU in the wake of Brexit, much as Americans are getting a daily civics lesson in the crucial importance of good government in the wake of Trump's election. Joni Mitchell was right: you don't know what you've got 'til it's gone. If only losing what we had weren't the price to pay for appreciating how good we had it.
37
Blasphemy to say, but I think the EU is the greatest source for good in the world. Nobody else makes the slightest effort to rein in corporate malfeasance. Compare the U.S. "financial reform" for example.
57
The E.U. for good reasons received the Nobel price of peace in 2012
4
In the end, Parliament will have no choice but to accept the PM’s deal, because the alternative is so much worse. So, instead of Brexit, they’ll have to vote for a milder version - a sort of Flexit.
6
Whatever happens, it will leave a lesion. Call it Breczema.
6
It is critical that Britain completes the process of leaving the EU. sStaying in now and proving that "its basically impossible to leave the EU" would fundamentally change the relationship between nation states and the EU from an voluntary pooling of sovereignty to a binding 'united states' from which there could be no prospect of successful peaceful secession. For Britain itself, staying in now would guarantee no negotiating power within the EU for the foreseeable future and the flaws to be addressed would remain. The shark has been jumped, we'll see it through and it will be nowhere near as good or bad as some suggest.
10
In other words, we made an imbecelic decision after being egged on by Vlad the Putin, our government’s frozen solid and squabbling as it becomes clearer just how imbecelic that decision really was, and we can’t think of anything to do other than to keep shrieking at the EU that there better not be any consequences for our imbecelity, so let us stride forth boldly to make things worse.
2
It doesn’t prove anything. Any nation has the legal right to leave the EU but they have to be willing to bear the economic pain of separation to see it through. It would obviously be much easier for Britain if they had strong majority support and not only 51%. US states have NO legal right to leave the union, regardless of popular support for secession. Thanks to the Civil War for settling that one.
@Robert certainly a 'brave' decision. Time will tell whether it was imbecilic. The political class on all sides has been woeful since the referendum but that may say more about them than the result. I voted remain but there's no going back. I'm not shrieking at the EU, they are among our best friends in the world and will be for a long time to come. Don't panic!
1
Because it is impossible for Britain to leave europe, we now see in hindsight that it would have been better not to join it in the first place. The Brussels rules are never-ending and no matter what the pain is, it will be better for Britain to leave europe and to leave europe's choking regulations and open borders.
11
However the EU has helped to maintain Peace on a Continent where the two World Wars began, if there is one person alive today who would have had injuries if no jointly underwritten Belfast Agreement on Ireland was in place. An Agreement in which Michel Barnier was the EU Lead.... the EU deserves praise for vision and determination.
32
@Philip
It's not impossible to leave the EU. In the case of Brexit, it's clear that the will to make a clean break and leave is not strong enough.
6
@Philip / The British will find it impossible to avoid beeing the subjects of 'rule taking' outside the EU, as they lack the critical size to make their own in todays World, where national regulating bodies are largely out of their depth when confronted with the complexity and interconnectedness of technology, markets and indeed 'problems'. Take the shambolic Brexit-'negotiations' (as conducted by the British government) as exhibit A to illustrate my point.
So: Had the UK not already been a full member of the EU in the past, it would probably be closely associated with it, or even try to join now, OR it would 'take the rules' of somebody else—the US comes to mind—which is, where they might end up anyway, after Brexit.
Oh the irony.
10
“Successful populists and nationalists like Matteo Salvini and Luigi Di Maio in Italy, Victor Orban in Hungary, Jaroslaw Kaczynski in Poland and the Alternative for Deutschland”
These are your partners in Europe?
NY Times commentators lambast Americans for not standing up to Trump, while at the same time admonishing the Brits for wanting to distance themselves from the above list of “characters”.
Go figure.
4
@Mike Edwards The "leave voters" never thought through the consequences of their actions. As for the referendum: It was non binding. It means nothing.
1
A lot of us are quite happy to be in the EU, shortcomings and all. There's room for improvement to be sure, but I don't understand why so many articles in this paper make it seems like the EU is in a constant crisis, that's not how it feels over here.
83
Brexit has been a farce from the beginning until today, a dangerous one.
The U.K. can never effectively leave the European Union.
It is tied to it culturally, geographically and economically.
Most trade is done with neighboring countries, it is a basic law of international trade.
Like every other country that trades with the E.U, it will obey its rules. After all the E.U. is the biggest market in the world.
The U.K. will be a second class E.U. citizens without a vote but subject to the rules.
After a hard Brexit the British society will be in constant turmoil. A majority and most younger Brits favor a E.U membership. They will feel betrayed.
The Scottish will be tempted to leave the U.K for the E.U.
Discontent will erupt again in North Ireland.
Britain will suffer a brain drain from academia and well educated citizens who will seek opportunities abroad.
Brexit will be a disaster and a sad example how a country can deconstruct itself by following populist and hence stupid ideas.
48
Here in Scotland we are rather more than tempted to gain Independence from a Westminster who ignores our Remain vote. Do I want Independence as a part of Brexit definitely not, would I take it... any day, all day. Given the fact that any person on the island of Ireland has the unalienable right to have a UK Passport, an Irish(EU) Passport... or both, and the fact that NI also voted Remain, unification on the island of Ireland is also now very possible.
28
Do the USA, China and Brazil follow EU rules? They have firms that trade in EU that complete the forms the bureaucrats in Brussels create the same way the firms would do with forms for Mali or Rwanda if the firms had trade in those countries.
If I had to switch banks by a date, sure it would require a lot of actions to get ready. If I had two years to get ready, I am sure I could handle it. The UK should have spent the last two years setting up mechanisms that duplicate what US has with Europe instead of talks destined to go nowhere. They wasted that time and will now how to rush. That does not mean the end result won’t work.
It's not only how the UK government manages Brexit, but also Trumm's presidency which make the EU look a very desirable institution. It is easy to criticise technocrats (the European version of "deep state") and supra-national organisations. What the governments of the UK and of the USA demonstrate is the demagogy of these criticisms. People in Europe now better appreciate to be capable of driving safely and border-free from Gibraltar to Poland and to enjoy health insurance and citizen rights all the way long.
92
@FFFF The EU is basicly a US construct, an archaic and out-of-sync Organization evolving out of the Common Market....also designed with only one purpose.....to solidify US dominance and to "contain the Soviet Union". Now, in the 21st Century, the EU is best described as a Bureaucracy run, not by "democracy" but by "aristocracy"(ie...."bankers")........All attempts to holld Humpty Dumpty Bureaucracy together are simply refusals to admit we've all entered a new Era.....we wish to remain in the safe predictable world of USA#1, World Police/Banker/Etc. and to "contain the Soviet union".
One hopes those remaining, once the distraction of the soap opera in Whitehall has passed, will now seriously address the many challenges within the EU. Issues which perhaps had they been addressed would have swayed the handful of UK voters who might have voted remain and swung the referendum the other way. If not in a few years things will repeat somewhere else. The EU is a good thing with many flaws, but then again so is the USA. The USA had the Civil War to underscore the horror of unwise politics, Europe has a series of bloody wars to underscore that.
My late father was a diplomat in Brussels when the Common Agricultural Policy was running out of control and voices in London saying the EEC (as it was then) had failed. In a TV interview with the BBC he rounded on the interviewer and said “I lived through occupation and starvation in WWII, do you really think a surplus of butter and wine is worse than where Europe was before the EEC? Of course the excess is wrong, but get a sense of reality!”
And our Cold War adversaries in Romania, Hungary etc etc are now part of the EU, and both benefitting and bringing much to the older members.
Let’s put the energy into reform in Brussels now, not hunting unicorns in Whitehall, sadly.
117
Tough times for Democracy when small interest groups can control a country’s future. If I’m the current British Government I negotiate with the EU some type of a return clause within a couple of years, a no deal Brexit looks more like a UK “break it” deal.
45
The EU is another layer of bureaucracy, but definitely has strong benefits: consumer and environmental standards and protections, dramatically increased trade, free movement of labor and MOST important, elimination of war within the bloc.
It's a shame the populists have forgotten the immense carnage of war that the EU is designed to prevent ever again. We can only hope that despite their short memories, the political polarization by Facebook and the influence of fake web news, that people act smarter and try to fix the Eurozone rather that just break and dismantle as Britain and the current US administration are pursuing.
140
If anything positive should come from this unfortunate accident called BREXIT it must be the growing awareness amongst Europeans about the many positive elements of the EU and of being a part of it. And these do not only include the many economic advantages but even more importantly securing peace in Europe.
However, it will not be enough to just keep pointing at BREXIT and the problems it causes, saying:” See, better stay with us!” Brussels - together with national governments - needs to do much more to actively inform its citizens about why the E.U. is a good thing. As so often, ignorance is the enemy. We need informed citizens and voters for Europe and the E.U. to succeed. A challenge, indeed.
173
“working to alter the functioning of the bloc from within.”
It was this very argument that convinced the Greeks to stay in the Union, even after the Spectator headlined last October “A Greek tragedy: how the EU is destroying a country.”
By the way – why no mention of Greece in this article?
2
The boot in the behind that shoved Brexit over the finish line was Cameron and Osborne's ill-concieved austerity plan. It was a great push taking the financial situation of many from "marginal" to "truly poor". It's pretty well known that as people's economic security deteriorates, they vote more conservatively. And so they did. And Voila, Brexit was born. It will be a scourge on the British peoples for decades to come.
Wealthy countries failing to make sure everyone gets a piece of the pie will always have bad results. The US got Trump, the UK, Brexit.
23
Prime Minister Edward Heath concealed from both British politicians and the electorate that the long-term purpose of The U.K. joining The Common Market was political integration in The EU not simply participation in the largest free trade area. The British civil service concealed the growing surrender of U.K. sovereignty to Brussels regulations from voters. Prime Minister Blair subsequently signed further treaty agreements and, year after year, concealed the huge increase in volume of East European workers immigrants that resulted. Concealment and deceit destroy the trust of voters in democracy. When 'Remainers' lost the Brexit referendum thanks to Chancellor Merkel's arrogant Willkommen policy and attempts to impose the consequences on the rest of The EU, all those losing British politicians could do was further betray democratic trust by calling for a re-run on the basis that the perennial cheaters had been out-cheated in presenting the original Brexit referendum case in 2016.
The free trade area of The Common Market was an excellent idea but Continental Europeans do not want to be part of a United States of Europe dominated by export-subsidized Germany with French assistance under Brussels diktat. The Euro-model allows too little flexibility for national competitiveness and culture permanently enslaving Southern Europeans in high unemployment.
The EU will serve as historical warning against 'political dreams' that took far too long to die.
4
This is really a static retrograde ultraneoliberal vision. Europeans want welfare, wealth, social security, equity, solidarity. Important values
12
@John Smith
All development is based on peace.
Those who have not experienced destruction should refrain from giving advice.
12
@Gerard With obviously someone else picking up the Bill... As is the case with all social market economies. Eventually you run out of tax or flawed currency to pay for it.
1
Brexit is basically the last gasp of British colonialism. The UK reveled in the glow of its world empire and the magnificent
Mr. Churchill took such glory in it.
The fact that “power corrupts ultimately” has never been more true than in the Brexit idea.
Now, the UK has alienated its fellow Europeans and actually
Strengthened the EU as a unifying force among its members.
After unbelievable incompetence shown by the UK, the EU can now say, “Farewell and sink or swim totally on your own”.
Yet another unsettling piece of negative news to wake up to especially here as a Polar Vortex pays us a delightful visit!
11
Lessons for the US? Several comments crediting the US with a union based on mutual interdependence give me some comfort. Yet concerns continue to loom about the divisions caused by irresponsible leaders and errant populism.
8
Humans have a tribal instinct that can be used for good or evil. Good leaders try to enlarge the tribe as a larger tribe is stronger and generally more successful whether it is a nation or a business. This simple fact has evidently dawned on most European citizens. British citizens not so much.
9
The leaders of the EU were never in a panic. They had already got Greece to behave responsibly; they and their central bank rescued Ireland, Spain and Portugal when they had real estate induced banking crises; and more recently they imposed some financial discipline on Italy who have now rapidly abandoned their threats to leave the Euro. That the EU is in permanent crisis a peculiarly US conceit. Are there strains? Of course, what else can be expected in an economic and quasi political union of 27 different states. Do they seriously threaten the institution? No, because it works and the members have far more to lose by leaving than staying.
As for Brexit the British have indeed turned themselves into a laughing stock largely because of their own hubris. When this process started they were totally confident they could have their cake and eat it, they held all the cards, the EU needed them more than they needed the EU, they would easily be able to out maneuver a disunited EU, etc. etc. It has proved otherwise.
36
If the British populous voted to leave the EU then that's what PM May is accomplishing to do. Years after that vote result occurred, there is much to worry about and still more doubts than ever before, if it is the right thing to do? Unsurprisingly, the EU isn't making it easy to do, if they did, they would cease to exist in short order. Now it appears that those countries that have made noises about leaving the EU like Italy for example, are working within to change the EU so that it functions and accommodates Italy - it seems like a natural way to change the EU. But the EU bureaucracy and the lack of a central bank coupled with political views that don't always mesh well with some weaker members has been the primary roadblock. Perhaps the EU body will look to create flexibility across the membership so that there is not uneven application of fiscal and social policies. The great difficulty that the EU has is that there is not a common banking system or an equivalent of our Federal Reserve - more likely this will never be created as each nation hold dear it's own sovereign economic controls despite the common Euro currency. Working within the framework of the EU is perhaps the only means of changes vs going through a Brexit
2
What do you mean, the EU lacks a central bank? Of course it has a central bank, for the euro. Its seat is in Frankfurt and it is called ECB.
5
While the EU has good points, especially in that it encourages direct and indirect subsidises to its poorer member states, and that this in turn, and debate between the member states help to discourage war.
However, the bloc has serious governance issues and increasingly sustains a clique of bureaucrats who have gained too much power and are trying to hold on to it despite the increasingly obvious lack of democratic legitimacy. It is this group who have been out in force in recent days holding firm to their intransigent negotiating position and congratulating each other on their solidarity. It comes over very badly - certainly here in the UK - and I suspect they will pay the price more broadly across their various populations in the longer run.
4
@Londoner Actually, the EU states in coordination with Bruxelles have held firm in their beliefs. It is the Tory party coupled with a weak opposition that does not know what it wants, endlessly changing positions during 2.5 years with ministers resigning and endlessly changing their views. The parody that the House of Commons has become, a bickering little club of people who only have their own vested interests at heart (we'll see how many UK citizens will actually bother voting in the next general election as opposed to many European countries having participation rates around 80% of the population).
The debate about the EU has often been conducted in negative tones since the 1980's with endless criticisms from politicians and certain media owned by UK tax exiles, with most Brits having no interest or superficial knowledge about Europe. Thus such a pathetic decision by D. Cameron to outsource this decision to hold a referendum when there is no such tradition at all in the UK and MP's are elected and draw a salary and privileges to actually debate, discuss and vote on issues which often are complicated and which people take no interest in.
16
@Londoner
Correction: it should read: "The anger is real, it just has been fraudulently directed at the EU and NOT at the party that owns this mess: The Tories!
4
I have been looking forward to reading good news in the media that makes me happy. We finally have one nicely written article here which explains the silver lining to this otherwise cgrey cloud ( or is it London fog ?)
9
As Boris Johnson promised when he campaigned for Brexit:
“There will be no more cake and you won’t have anything else to eat either.”
12
Europe and certainly the USA made one collective decision that has brought all of this turmoil on; the decision to outsource manufacturing and millions of lower/middle class jobs mostly to a non-democratic, non-laws-based country of 1.4 billion people called China.
I don’t wish the people of China ill, but zero, absolutely zero democratic (or legal) reforms where required of China in exchange for essentially taking over the West’s manufacturing base. Pure hubris and greed from the “Davos” set. Just a wink and nudge was all it took to undermine a couple of centuries of Democratic Capitalism. “It’s good for the shareholders”.
Just imagine if 40+ years ago, the West decided to outsource millions of jobs to Russia because it was “cheaper”. That is essentially what has happened and now everyone is paying the price, from Athens to Manchester to Cleveland. I’d hold off on the sanguine back-slapping. All it takes is one recession for Brexit to be the canary in the coal mine and not an outlier.
27
@Dudesworth You are not wrong but there must have been a political calculation that China had to given a chance to grow economically or there was going to be war. Also, in those days, the USSR still existed and was a serious threat. So, sa strong China was, or would be, a counter-balance.
Having said that, it really hasn’t worked out all that well, has it?
1
The EU was always going fare better than the UK with Brexit. Is the EU perfect? oh geez no. There have been volumes written about how it can be better, but the customs union that allows the free movement of people and goods across 28 nations does more good than harm. The EU is the worlds largest trading region. What is the UK going to be now? The sun never setting on the Empire has long passed. This disaster of an exit has proven it is better to remain than leave.
29
The real lesson is that joining the Eurosoviet Union in the first place was Britain’s real mistake because only scoundrels such as Big Brussels force one to make the false choice between self determination and economic well being.
3
Ah, the brilliance of populist/white supremacy heroes Stephen Bannon and Nigel Farage on display.
We are in an era, going on almost eight decades, of unprecedented peace across the globe and especially in Europe. Men like Bannon and Farage would like us to think these are the end times, that we must return to the previous norm of elderly rich white men determining our fates.
You'd be a fool to listen to any of them. Look at what it's gotten us: the disastrous Brexit and the colossal failures of the Trump administration.
58
It has been long enough since WWII that most have forgotten the real reason for the existence of the European Union and all of the trade deals and alliances that Trump has been attacking: to prevent a WWIII that would destroy us once and for all.
At that task, the EU, NATO and global trade arrangements have been extremely successful. Economic growth and prosperity are side benefits.
The EU certainly has plenty of problems, among them growing economic inequality similar to the U.S. But the alternative is much worse, as foolish Britain is finding out the hard way. Thanks for the reminder.
22
@concerned. Have you actually read the article or are you just releasing a canned opinion?
The E.U is a supranational organization of the most advanced democracies. So it is inherently democratic.
No serious economist or projection predicts a huge benefit for the U.K. The opposite is true. Brexit will lead to lost growth and income over the next 10 years.
Trump will intervene? To save Britain? How? Through the E.U the U.K has already the best possible access to the American market.
What’s so wrong with a bureaucrat in Brüssel compared to one in your city hall? They are both appointed through their respective government and execute the will of the people through the administrative process. It’s abstract yes, but it’s a fact.
The brexiteers have repeatedly about the financial burden of a E.U. membership. There are direct and indirect costs and benefits. Many excellent economic models have one clear result: the U.K. benefited enormously from the common market and continues until today. Millions of jobs depend on the free access and will be shifted to other countries.
I get the sense that you are a nationalist who succumbs to the wishful thinking of an ideology.
But according to the polls cited in this article many European citizens changed their mind about the E.U because they witness the meltdown of a society that was known for its rational approach to life’s challenges.
35
@Oliver Herfort
Well said!
Thank you.
8
The pendulum sure does swing fast! Such rapid shifts in public opinion make it difficult for nations to adopt consistent, long-term strategies.
1
I have friends who travel to Europe and usually take the Chunnel to the mainland. Since they do want to do customs twice, they will fly into Germany instead.
Let Ireland and Scotland stay in the EU and the UK. They are sick of the whole controversy. Let England and Wales leave without a plan. Watch their economy sink back to levels of the '80"s. It is what they deserve.
14
@Kuhlsue
Ireland is a separate country and is an E.U. member in its own right. Scotland and Northern Ireland are part of the uk and have to brexit as such
@Provo1520
Provo?
As in “Proovisional IRA”?
Maybe not, since you say that NI is a separate country.
If you are a citizen of US, you will go through customs and security in London and France before or after Brexit. Same thing on the reverse trip. Somehow I had the idea that the EU was like the US if you stay inside security: you pass through one and done portal. I was wrong.
Seeing Britain display their dependency on Europe and the rest of the world is a beautiful thing to behold.
So is the incompetence of its ruling class with the most ardent pro-Brexit resigning days—days!—after Brexit won the referendum with its campaign promise of £350 M to be injected into the coffers on a weekly basis.
And two years after what do the Brits have? Nothing but panic buying to stock up on beans and tampons. And the infantile “debates” in the Parliament that would put the most unruly kindergarten class to shame.
Of course they will drag this so called “transition” on and on and on.
Which could only be a good thing as everyone will soon realize what Brexit really is: a idea founded on lies and hatred for immigrants.
I can see the stiff upper lip trembling from across this frozen pond.
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Brexit was largely the result of a complete failure of political leadership as a Prime Minister (who was warned not to do it) promised a referendum as a way of solving a problem within his (Conservative) Party.
The result has been that same party (under a different leader) act in the traditional manner that imperial-minded Brits have always dealt with foreigners who weren't understanding what they were saying (in English, of course) and sinmply repeating what they said before in a lou voice while speaking slowly. This is what they're doing with Brexit and the EU... refusing to believe that their (the British) offer/command would be refused and repeating the same thing, all the while Johnny Foreigner understands completely.
Brexit is the last stand of the Little Englander. I just hope that disappearing class doesn't do too much damage in the process of shuffling off the stage.
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Immense damage has been done to the British economy? That’s wishful thinking, employment (for instance) is at a record high. Immense damage was forecast if we voted to leave and it didn’t happen which is why people are cynical about predictions for a no deal exit. Maybe when we actually leave that it will be bad, we shall see.
The reason it’s become so chaotic is the unhelpful combination of an EU who wants to make it as difficult as possible and a British establishment who never wanted to leave.
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Who would wish to damage the British economy? why should the EU make it difficult for the UK? nonsense.
If they want to trade with EU just accept the principles that are applied with any trade partner outside the EU. UK, however, refused to accept the Swiss model, the Norwegian model and the Canadian model for a trade agreement. They wanted all the advantages EU members are enjoying but not the obligations.
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The EU want to make it difficult as possible in order to discourage others from leaving. Even Macron admitted he wasn’t sure the French wouldn’t vote to leave, so they won’t get asked.
The UK makes a huge annual payment to the EU, has a huge trade deficit with it and membership means we have to charge tariffs on non EU food imports.
The EU is fundamentally undemocratic. The remain campaigners never give positive reasons for staying, because there aren’t any.
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It has been obvious for some time that one cannot have a monetary union without a fiscal union and that cannot happen in Europe unless there is a Europe wide budget.
Which means that in order for each nation to have the basics of decent living, the richer nations like Germany will have to subsidize the poorer ones.
This is what happens in US which has a monetary and fiscal union so that states as disparate as New York and Wyoming know that they are in this together. Therefore the coastal cities which produce the bulk of the revenue have to subsidize the middle of the country. Yes, the coastal elites get slammed for their insular behavior but the middle of the country could not exist without them. Similarly however much the Blue coastal elites decry the folks, "the deplorables" in the middle Red states, they have to find ways to improve their lives or the whole country will be torn apart.
Are all states in Europe willing to sign on to that pact?
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Won’t work without a true Federal government. Germany is fiscally strong precisely because it has maintained a principled monetary policy. Other countries have not.
You are advocating living by the least common denominator.
That would effectively force Germany to leave.
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@Meenal Mamdani
We Europeans have no wish to follow the US way thank you.
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Simon Tilford’s contention that Britain was not the reason the EU could not make greater progress in shoring up the euro is correct at face value but superficial. Apart from the fact that it sometimes happens that non-eurozone countries get to vote on euro matters, Britain has consistently, for decades, vetoed or blocked progress on countless EU initiatives. Its tabloids and its right-wing politicians have deliberately propagatedspread outright lies and myths on the EU and are the main responsibles for the climate of mindless europhobia that we have been witnessing for years. This has considerably affected the constituency for reform in the EU. The UK is not ‘clean’ in this respect, quite the contrary.
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If we keep preventing progress the EU should be glad we’re leaving. They aren’t though, isn’t that odd?
@Iain Clark
Does that mean that you disagree that Britain's ...
'tabloids and its right wing politicians have deliberately propagated and spread lies and myths on the EU'
...because we all know that is true.
Marco's points made at the end of his comment are one of the main reasons that Brexit happened. People were conned into believing that the EU was not acting in the
people's interest . Completely false.
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May and the Brexiteers might well go down as the most incompetent rulers of England since Henry VI. That judgment would fit them and their supporters quite well, but those who resisted exit are the collateral damage. It's a shame how Britain took out their bazooka and shot themselves in the collective foot.
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@JET
True but this is only the latest example of Conservative incompetence. Since 2010 they have blamed Labour for the recession caused by American banks. They applied austerity so that it fell on the 90% to pay for the recovery while reducing taxes on business and the rich. So Britain had slow growth not helped by the ability of companies to restrict pay increases since Margaret Thatcher,s work on killing Trade Unions.
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@JET A more objective, less emotional analysis of the situation might conclude that Theresa May and the Brexiteers have actually negotiated a very practical, productive agreement with every other nation in the EU......!! Except for Ireland. And that is the one remaining sticking point.
@Wherever Hugo So, disagreement is "emotional" and unobjective?
5
The European Union has the largest group of consumers in the world and for all the negative rhetoric from populists, Europeans know they have a good thing with jobs, health care, schools and other basics functioning better than in most places in today's overcrowded, over polluted world. It's got Christians, atheists, Jews, Buddhists and Muslims trying to make a go of it and that is already remarkable.
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@Jo Ann
...the largest group of consumers of the WESTERN world. In the world after China and India.
4
Heavy sigh upon reading first paragraph. There was no "migration crisis" in 2016. There was a perception of a migration crisis drummed up by anti-EU, populist demogogues. Does this sound familiar? Before you cite a migration crisis as the source of some policy dilemma, you should probably make sure the crisis is real and not merely ripped from the tabloid headlines.
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@Suebee
I disagree.
The migration crisis for insular Brits is/was the free movement of members within the bloc. Go to any urban restaurant or hotel in London, Liverpool or Manchester prior to 2016 and it was staffed exclusively by Slavs--Poles, Bulgars, or southern Mediterraneans, etc. This was compounded by 2nd generation descendants of commonwealth immigrants taking their place in British society--doctors, lawyers, teachers, etc, who were BROWN!
Brexit was and always has been fueled by xenophobia and racism. But the cause is real. Slavic or Romance language emigres WERE flooding the country. 2ndGens were all about, changing "the complexion" of Little Britain. Working class Brits on the dole see second gen Brits become professionals and it stirs resentment. Brexit is the futile attempt to turn back the clock to a time 40 years earlier when everyone looked and sounded Anglo-Saxon. Stupid but hardly futile: they have driven out hundreds of thousands of Europeans (along with much need health care professionals).
Brexit isn't a manufactured crisis. It's a case where the public was permitted to indulge its worse instincts without remonstrance or public reprimand. The Tory Party which actually resembles an exclusive all-white country club did nothing to stop it. It does nothing still. THAT is where they resemble the good old US of A. The results are to be determined, but they surely won't be good.
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@Laurence Bachmann I think you have presented a major misread of current events and especially of Brexit.....having limited your view to a frame of reference that hasnt kept up with the times since 1968. You define the world as 1st World vs 3rd World and seem to imply that Europe(ie...USA) has a moral obligation to impose "good' on the rest of them. WW2 ended a long time ago. The UN is no longer a "US laboratory for democracy". The Soviet Union no longer exists. Civil Rights Movement is three, maybe four generations into the future. Brexit makes sense. the Latin/Catholic third of Europe will assert itself vs the German third vs the Balkan(Greek/Turk) third. Out of necessity North Africa becomes dominated by the Latins. From Firesign Theater..."Everything you know is Wrong".
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@Wherever Hugo
I don't define the world as 1st or 3rd world but Brexiters SURELY do. I have no trouble believing a 2ndGen Jamaican is fully British.
Convincing those who voted for Brexit is the problem and the crisis. It's one based on racism and xenophobia and saying otherwise is naive.
8
The really sad thing about this shambles is that un the UK opinion polls all show a significant majority supporting remaining in the EU.
But MPs are unable to hold a second referendum because there is a majority of MPs who vote according to their constituents wishes, and there may well be a majority of constituencies who voted to leave.
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@Richard
Quite apart from the fact there is no parliamentary majority to support a second referendum, the fact is both major parties ran in the last election on a manifesto EXPLICITLY undertaking to respect the referendum result.
PM May is acting honorably - a statement that cannot be made for Bercow, not to mention the abominable Blair.
1
"Increasingly, the British experience stands as a cautionary tale, muting talk in other countries about quitting the European Union. "
For all its faults, so much more live saving than the US approach of holding her Union together
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