The problem with people associated with the Trump administration is that they bend the their opinions on the economy and everything else for that matter to please him. There is no objectivity in their statements. The trumparians live in their own bubble sort of like that old movie with Jim Carey, the Truman Show.
If in theory the economy is at full employment. That means most employable workers have joined the labor market. There is also the gap in revenues and liabilities the government has to cover via higher deficits. If the economy is close to its full potential, inevitably we will reach a saturation point in goods and services combined with worker scarcity so the economy would have to slow down. It is the nature of the beast. Let us not forget also that the Fed has not disposed of all the assets it purchased during the recession. It is no wonder that the market is highly volatile and Trumps falsehoods and artificial crisis make things worst.
5
"Many economists say last year was an outlier, fueled by a brief boost of fiscal stimulus:..."
What is this fellow blathering about? The tax cuts are an ongoing stimulus, as are the abolished regulations. Those will all go on in perpetuity until / unless the Democrats retake all of the legislative and executive branches and start heaping them all on our backs again. 3-4% was normal growth for decades while I was a kid, there's no reason it can't be normal again.
We have gone from an outlier economy of last year that most economists feel it can't be sustained to Trump officials trumpeting of
great continuous unabated growth.
Who is right on this issue the Trump liars or the economic outliers__i would opt to the outliers.
6
The president of russia should know.
3
What “economist”? Those ones that advised the President Obama that 1- 1.5% growth is a new normal? Or maybe it was Paul Krugman who predicted the crash of the world economy following Trump election? So the tax cut and cutting regulations did not help to crash the economy. But 70% tax and Medicare for All will sure do the trick, one needs no Harvard degree to realize this, just the common sense.
3
"Trump Says..." "...reflecting the president’s faith in his tax and trade policies to..."
The lede of this story is not a credible statement. There is scant evidence to claim that what this president says can be relied upon to indicate what, if anything, he actually believes. The preponderance of evidence from his known history is that he says things for effect - especially in public, or for publication. He regularly says things that are mutually inconsistent and he often makes claims "based" on a rationale that is either untrue or illogically justified. The most suitable description is that used in the headline: "Trump says ..." Assignation of any underlying belief seems likely to be conjecture not appropriate for news reporting.
4
Trump speaks and intelligent people think, more bluster and misrepresentation to present himself as the infallible leader. Whatever is true, it’s likely not what Trump says it is.
8
Trump is a professional at lying, deceiving and twisting the fact. It is how he made his money.
8
Most in “ most economists “ is inappropriate in this opinion piece.
1
The lede in this story was well and truly buried.
The reporting showed that we are very much a petrostate. Oil drilling and revenue contributes significantly to our economic "health".
"Perhaps the most important component of growth, though, could be what happens to oil prices. Economists at the Penn Wharton Budget Model calculate that as American oil production has increased over the last decade, related in part to the shale boom, investment and growth in the United States have increasingly been tied to crude prices."
If world oil prices do well, our economy now appears to do well, if not, not. Those of us paying retail see a real drop in our standard of living when oil prices increase because we must pay more at the pump, and for home heating and air conditioning (until we can stop using oil or gas for heat and electricity). This may be part of the reason our "economy is doing great" but many of us feel our lives are getting harder.
2
As of 12:30 PM today the stock market is up 300+ points. What type of cycle are we in?
@lftash, ask the average American how much a stock market increase benefits them.
4
@Sharon
We own stock Sharon. I've got a 401k. Like most people.
Even in BF Kansas.
1
The moment Trump open his mouth you can be sure that he is saying a lie or it's about a conceited remark.
8
"Trump says" should be all the warning sane, thinking Americans need to understand that what comes next will be
nonsensical RUBBISH.
9
So let's see. . . Trump is an economic genius, others are not. He is a foreign policy genius, his agency heads are naive. He is a negotiating genius, Pelosi and Congress are Anti-American. Only he knows what is needed to Make America Great Again.
Someone who thinks they have all the answers with a record like his is called delusional. I have a suggestion on MAGA - Dump Trump.
8
You had me right up until "Trump Says...."
2
The left/Dems would luv to see a recession (depression?) under Trump . . . no matter how many Americans' lives would be damaged.
@Plato well Trump is trying very hard to damage many Americans lives. Only his cult is so gullible to believe anything he says. And they are like antivaxxers. The more objective truth the more they dig in. It’s quite frustrating to talk to people who live in fantasy world
6
@ExRepub
Damaging lives? What, by fixing the economy? Stop with the faux hysterics. Your life is one of privilege.... and nonstop complaining.
It’s all part of the con. Like the old days, when Trump would convince banks to lend him money to buy buildings, build real estate projects and develop casinos based on outrageous financial projections. They jumped on the Trump train, only to see their loans worth pennies on the dollar when Trump declared bankruptcy (at least four times) or forced them to “work out” their loans. Anybody who believes a financial projection from Trump should talk to all the lenders and investors he burned over the decades. I strongly suspect they would have a different opinion.
11
The 4th quarter GDP growth was 2.6%. The 1st Qtr GDP growth is projected a 1.8%. This is called "slowing growth". The big question is whether growth wil slow more, or stay slow. We should be hopeing for the "stay slow" option because that is the best one for now. Until the global economy improves that will be the new reality.
1
None of Trump's predictions about anything are based in fact. All are based on faith, and the facts simply do not matter. This is equally true of excessively rosy predictions and of excessively pessimistic ones. The list gets longer all the time, including critical areas ranging from climate change to North Korea to Russia to Iran to the economy.
Facts matter to everyone, everywhere, except to the few world leaders who think that their control over reality trumps what is actually the case and who believe that what they say decides what that reality is. Unfortunately, the world leaders who fall into this category--such as Putin and Trump--have enough power to make their indefensible perception of the nature of reality affect us all.
6
OK, how much of the current economy is financed via the increase in the national debt? This year we will borrow close to $1 trillion. Take that out and it is quickly realized that the economy is actually going down. Remember we will not be able to debt finance increases in the economy much longer and then what do we have to do? Oh, will the Trump family cover the Trump increases to the national debt and if so for how long?
9
@David Gage You are correct that we need to cut spending, and the only budget areas big enough to make a difference are Entitlements. Good luck getting Nancy to go along with that.
You are also right that the debt is still increasing - just as they have predicted for the past 20 years. Automatic increases in Entitlements guarantee that will happen. We are within a year of two of the point where, if we shut down the government entirely and ONLY paid for Entitlements and interest on the debt, it would consume 100% of tax revenues.
However, all things considered we are in MUCH better shape than two years ago. Economic growth has caused the national debt to DECLINE as a percent of GDP for the past two years - something that has not happened since well before Obama was President. Labor participation is up, 5 million people are now out of poverty who were on assistance previously due to job creation.
The spending problem cannot be fixed with more taxes - we are already at the point of diminishing returns where higher taxes will actually hurt long term revenues. There are exactly two choices left: Accept some pain now and voluntarily reduce Entitlements, or do nothing and the resulting economic collapse in about 10 years will cripple the world and end most, if not all, Entitlements completely.
When will we stop listening to Mr. 45's lies and falsehoods. He has no understanding of the economy. Look at what he just put the Nation through with the shutdown. I'm a small business owner and I do not see all of the benefit that I hear him and his gang talking about. During his "election" I thought he and the Republicans were going to ruin me, as I had some of the worst months since I've been in business, and last November was the same. Living close to the Canadian border, we've been suffering a loss of their business now for over three years and this administrations policies continue to make it difficult for us, by not making Canadians, our nearest neighbors, want to come down and spend money. How long before his backers see the destruction of our economy and our liberties before they wake up? There is only 1% of the country making it right now, the rest of us, especially small business owners are eating it daily, with no way out and no end in sight.
12
Trump's view of reality is egocentric it sees himself as the center of the Universe and his personal relationships with foreign leaders define our foreign policy. If foreign leaders flatter and praise him like Putin, Kim and MSB have done Trump agrees with their world view despite his own intel agencies. This would explain why Putin was so determined to get Trump in the White House and now to keep him in there by interfering in our 2020 elections which Trump does not object to. Our economy could start to decline despite Trump's tweets claiming its doing better than ever and the fake media and facts all lie , he and he alone has special info .
2
With productivity (output per worker) and the number of employed both growing about 1%, the sustainable rate of growth is around 2%. It's just arithmetic.
If Trump wants to continue running $1 trillion deficits despite an otherwise solid economy, then that should be an insurance policy for that 2% level. It's only when that level ratchets up or down that we get much of a growth boost, as we got in 2018 when the deficit was increased 60% vs. the level forecast when he took office.
If we bring that deficit down to a sustainable $500 billion or so (about 2.5% GDP), that will temporarily slow the economy during the transition, but much less so if we get that revenue mainly from tax hikes on the rich.
2
Trump's economy may well be 'unstoppable' ~ please note that he didn't specify in which direction it's going...
12
"His team has predicted that inflation-adjusted growth will average 3 percent through 2024...."
We now know the President and his team have reached a level of delusion that is rather frightening. I am not an economist, but this growth economy will slow, I know that from my 60 plus years on this planet.
Three percent? Why not four or five percent? After 2% expected growth for that time perio, it all becomes fantasy.
12
Trump cannot talk an economy into a specific rate of growth. Trump, a promoter before all else, will try to convince people that the economy is growing at a much faster rate than the data shows, good enough for some to vote for him. In his mind, just talk of a good economy is sufficient for reelection.
But,reality always intrudes. Foxconn reportedly is scaling back its building and job projections in Wisconsin where Trump first touted 13,000 new jobs but where 1,000 are more likely because Foxconn simply doesn't see the opportunities that Trump and Scott Walker promised initially. Then, there are the tariffs and the prospects that farmers will continue to fill the silos because tariffs have wreaked havoc on sales abroad, especially to China, and there's no place else to sell the commodities.
There also is a longer-term dysfunction that will certainly affect U.S. growth over the coming decades. U.S. output simply does not dominate any longer. China, with India close behind, are the new economic behemoths, geared up and producing. Both countries are committed to building vast infrastructure systems and soon will overtake the US as the largest economies in the world. Apple has problems getting US manufacturers to produce in sufficient quantities a simple screw that's inserted in phones, requiring Apple to obtain needed quantities of those screws abroad. News like this does not augur unstoppable growth ahead, no matter what Trump, Kudlow, and Hassett declare.
16
Slowing growth is happening. Trump is of the opinion that the US will be an island of prosperity that will draw in international capital as they search for a save haven. But Trump's trade war policies and America First nationalism will likely have the opposite effect.
14
President Trump is utterly out-of-touch with reality, thinking that by force of will and salesmanship he can affect the economy, as well as domestic and foreign policy. He can't abide ideas or opinions different than his, which is why he surrounds himself with sycophants.
Ultimately, the President's reality and "real" reality will collide, whether via the economy, foreign policy, the Mueller investigation, a combination of these factors, or something else. And then, once again, President Trump will double down and deny the facts.
My, doesn't the emperor look grand in his new clothes?
18
If I thought the economy was unstoppable, I would have to reassess that view now that Trump agrees.
5
“Growth is slowing in China...and that [CAN] also drag down the U.S. economy...”. No, it IS dragging down the U.S. economy. BTW, curious to know how your area of the country is growing, and why your fellow citizens are dismayed by that growth.
2
Gee. When Obama’s experts said the economy would roar under his policies, everyone cheered. Dead wrong. But when trump suggests they are mistaken, it’s front page news what a fool he is.
Yet another example of Trump derangement syndrome.
Like- when Obama ignores the experts and leaves Iraq, he is cheered for ending that war. When trump does the same in Afghanistan, he is a reckless fool, on the front page.
Trump derangement syndrome. Every day. The man cannot do a single thing right. Nothing.
Anyone watch MSNBC? Literally every day- no joke- is devoted to trump and Russia. This is trump derangement syndrome that is almost comical. Maddow breathlessly reports on anything and or anyone that suggests collusion and is as sure of it as any religious zealot. Amazing.
4
@Ari Weitzner
Hi Ari,
Selective amnesia often?
Obama did bring the economy from near death!
Republican congress blocked many of his attempts to boost the economy.
Voters wanted out of iraq!
No scandals with obama - don’t think the the repubs weren’t trying. Scandals with trump - where to start - business, taxes, russians, corruption....
Have you watched fox lately? Trump can do no wrong there!
2
@Ari Weitzner Ari, the decision to leave Iraq was established during the W. years. Get your facts straight. Obama had to implement a decision made before he was president.
2
@Ari Weitzner I can assure you there is no such thing as Trump DS. It’s made up by the Right to explain away why so many people object to him. Trump has his own reality he has convinced his cult who will believe anything he says over objective truth. And he is willing to abuse his power. That’s what many people object to.
3
The stock market already tanked. It is still below where it was Jan 1, 2018 (13 months ago). Of course stocked market activity and economic activity are now completely decoupled (see SEC 10b-18; Graham, Leach, Bliley; Volcker rule repealed, high frequency trading, arrival of derivatives, proprietary trading, etc.).
The economic crash is on the horizon. The bulk of the billionaire tax giveaway that kicked in on Jan 1, 2018 (13 months ago) went to C-suite bonuses, raises, and stock buybacks (not wages and investment). The $300 billion tax (aka tariff) levied on US citizens (made welfare queens out of farmers) is rippling through the economy (recall 2/3's of GDP is consumer spending). The impact of the exploding debt (now larger than GDP) is now starting to kick into gear.
There's more, but I have no time for anybody who thinks the economy is strong.
12
@oldBassGuy "The stock market already tanked. It is still below where it was Jan 1, 2018 (13 months ago)."
Or, stated another way, it's still up 20% in 2 years, a very healthy performance. Exuberance caused it to rush ahead in the first year, but it has corrected nicely.
There's plenty more, but I have no time for anyone who doesn't understand that our economy is strong and going to stay that way for at least the next few years.
Was Donald Trump told that $3 billion dollars was lost and never to be recovered because of his government shutdown? It was Donald Trump's policies that caused the stock market to go haywire in 2018. I lost $15,000 of my retirement funds because of that idiot in the WH.
16
Wait until workers get a gander at the tax bills they'll be OWING this year, thanks to Dump's "tax reform". And each year it will get worse. Way to go, MAGAts. Apparently the best years for America were 2007-2009.
15
Whether the unemployment rate is 3% or 13% nobody who cares about this country should be voting for this corrupt, inept, racist, treasonous president.
23
Just another lie from the Czar and original kingpin of fake news.
14
Thank you Obama for leading us the way out of the meltdown 10 years ago and the subsequent bull market. Are you listening Donald?
14
Trump is a chronic 'magnificent' liar, to the point of being unable (or unwilling) to tell fact from fiction. And an idiot by choice.
9
The ONE thing we can learn from having survived two years with Donald Trump is president is not to believe ANYTHING he says.
And yet the press continues to report this because they are obligated to keep the American people informed of the facts. Many of us applaud the press for their tenacity, but those in the press who are students of history should know that when the entire intelligence community and the military, overtly and publicly contradicts Donald Trump on his foreign policy assessments , it is a signal and a message that there is a whole lot more trouble to come. It is also a signal that areas of our government have decided already to work independently of the president, disregarding his public agendas, because they are not connected to reality . This can be said to be equally true of assessments about the economy.
This will not end well for Donald Trump, or for the American people ....
9
Here we go with the he said she said. No one on the President's team is capable of credible analysis. Every single promise they made about the tax cuts has been a lie (just like it was a lie under Bush 2 and Reagan).
15
@Bill smith The ONE truth, proven by action and fact, from Reagan, w., and now the traitor, is their DEFICIT SPENDING hurts our economy, with each successive "president" outdoing the repub that came before. NO MORE!
2
It's hard to believe that we can have a virtuous cycle of growth with scoundrels governing two largest economies in the world.
4
“Last year looked just like we thought, so we don’t think, going into our next forecast, that there’s a heck of a lot of reason to change our mind about things,” Kevin Hassett, Steve Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow might want to review SEC Rule 156 required of all investment houses: “Past Performance Is Not Indicative Of Future Results.”
11
trump says the economy is 'unstoppable.' Nonetheless, he is doing his best to throw stoppers into it----growing deficit due in part to his tax gifts to the wealthiest, government shutdowns, trade and tariff turmoil driven by his ignorant boasting. One stupid action from trump could start a major recession, and trump seems destined to do it sooner or later.
10
Trump and the Republicans inherited an economy that was on a steady upward trajectory since Obama took office. The Republicans goosed the economy with tax cuts for corporations and other gifts for the wealthy, and loosening of regulations. Trump was the idiot who cheer-leaded then signed the tax bill. It's a short term incentive with long term costs, including massive increase in deficits. But what the heck, it worked so well in Kansas.
13
Trump can't be trusted with anything - he lies incessantly, is ignorant and just makes stuff up. If it doesn't feed red meat to his base, regardless of truth or reality, it is worthless to him.
Trump has been campaigning for over 4 years and shows no sign of becoming a president, just a partisan narcissistic political hack with no skills and less humanity.
Why do we continue to give him any credence or media presence?
13
I think by now we all know that anything "Trump says" is questionable at best and normally just false and self serving. You can find just about any statement made by Trump and contradict it with another statement made by Trump, sometimes even in the same sentence. This man is a total clown.
9
February 10th. Then see.
2
Most Intelligence and economic experts think the opposite of Trump.
"Extremely passive and naive." --- he has clearly confused multitudes of experts with himself, an "expert" of one.
4
Not mentioned is the change to the withholding tables for income taxes this year. Even after increasing my withholding pretty drastically in mid 2018, I will owe money when I file in April. I’m sure I’m not alone. If people are counting on tax refunds to fuel consumer spending this year, it ain’t happening.
8
Like most of the things he says, Trump’s vision of the economy has no basis in reality.
For him, “growth” means more buildings that say “Trump”; “trade” means more contracts that he can violate or abandon; and “negotiate” means bully first, then cave.
The house of cards is falling down around naked emporer Trump and his dwindling base of Whataboutists and ButButButters.
6
Trade wars slow economic growth. Who would have thought? Certainly not Trump.
8
1. 45 has zero knowledge of the intricacies of economics
2. 45's ideas are based on his FAILED experiences as a business man.
3. 45 likely didn't attend a single class at either Fordham or Penn--if he had, some of it would have penetrated and made an impression on even the most basic level
4. 45's "gut" is the most unreliable antenna of economic (or any other) policy imaginable
5. 45 needs to be stopped IMMEDIATELY before he does more (and irreparable) damage to the world's economy, commerce, climate, science, medicine, public policy, the arts, and humanity.
22
Just like the people who ran into the receding ocean before the great tsunami wave roared back in, Trump and his folks = want you not to see the now obvious coming recession. All the hoopla and cheerleading of Wall street etc and the administration can't change the chaos and it's effect on the world and the US,
It will certainly hit during 2020 just as the snake oil salesman tries to get reelected, and will be the nail in his well deserved political coffin.
9
Who are we the American people to believe? Trump's lapdogs? How many of the past ones have either run from their nomination or been forced out due to previous misdeeds?
I say we should look to independent professionals for a solution.
7
Well, Trump was an (allegedly) independent (alleged) professional, and where has that gotten us?
4
Please keep one thing in mind. Since Trump lost the popular vote, he did not fool the voters. He is only in office because he fooled the Electoral College.
Time to abolish this disgraceful institution and turn to Democracy now. Time to acknowledge that the Electoral College dismissed the will of the people.
4
@Glenn Thomas Indeed, we MUST ABOLISH the failed Electoral College. It has failed to deliver on the one thing it was enacted to protect us from: allowing a despot to attain the office of the presidency. AND YET, where is the call from our legislators to move on this NECESSARY Constitutional change?
3
Growth is a falsehood as the US personal debt is as bad as the public debt. Look how few people had any financial reserves during the last shutdown. Living on borrowed money eventually brings disaster. It’s the same what we’re doing borrowing from the Earth’s réserves.
12
We (Americans) are not “borrowing” from the reserves of the Earth: we are monetizing those reserves, and literally raping the Earth.
4
@Miriam Chua Actually, both assessments are correct. We SHOULD be using this TEMPORARY period in our civilization's evolution, during which we use fossil fuels to develop technology, as a bridge to a future where we have energy generation that does NOT require fossil fuels, as they will run out! To NOT focus on this necessary next evolution, and just waste the resources we're pulling from the planet, is, indeed, just rape.
2
Trump's rosy outlook is predicated on a surge in productivity and higher wages and better conditions for workers. his tax cut for the rich only sacks the economy and does nothing for the worker whose spending can not rely in the long term on borrowing. You can not get blood out of a stone, and the myth of Trump's helping workers is ludicrous.
13
We've heartd this storyline before, Donald Trump feathering his nest using spin, lies, or exaggerations. And when something does go array it's the Democrats this or the Democrats that.
With that said, until the Republican Party as a whole, forget his 'base' ever giving up supporting him-and throw in the Evangelicals for that matter, until Republicans start to take him to task for his un-ending self-absorption and total lack of empathy, remorse, guilt and shame, nothing coming from this administration will change.
How can it? He's packed his cabinet with sycophants.
,
9
In times of splendor, voters run to those who claim to be fiscal conservatives, people who will save for the generations to come, so they say.
Unfortunately, the only fiscal conservatives in my life time have been Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Besides those two, no conservative president has ever really cared about saving the taxpayer one dime. Just look at the temporary cut that the middle class will eventually pay back in full.
These Presidents get in and help large corporations generate cash while allowing them to giving less and less to their workers.
The idea of fiscal conservatism is a farce and simply political rhetoric perpetrated on the American people year after year. These folks are only there to stop more liberal presidents from balancing the working class and upper crust. We now know that there is a block of voters, mostly so-called independents, who are all about the money, who care nothing for America’s longevity only the surge of the stock market as they drain every fools 401 k.
10
Donald Trump is not an economist and is known to say anything and then change even what he has just said. A vacillator. Larry Kudlow's thinking is neo-classical economic beliefism or "market fundamentals ideology" that says markets (with the invisible hand's help) will yield economic success and winners and losers. No governing social intervention necessary. So, you see, we are not all Keynesian's. Larry isn't.
5
@Awayneramsey
"'market fundamentals ideology" that says markets (with the invisible hand's help) will yield economic success'"
Didn't we used to (last week) call that "voodoo economics"? :)
I have one axiom when considering any emanations of supposed fact from the Trump government. Lies and inaccuracies all. Example #1 is Trump’s denigration of the reports from our security services. Unless the President has parallel services, he is just blustering and lying to us. He does not know the facts. How is it that these same services that have been reliable informants for decades are no longer bearing pretty accurate assessment of threats facing our Nation? How is it possible that a bankrupt businessman has better information? Very unlikely.
13
Don’t forget the Times’ very own economist Krugman (along with all liberals) predicted right after Trump was elected, a global world wide recession “with no end in sight.”
And we just broke 3% growth for the first time in a decade.
....the part about last year being an outlier.
1
You really have drunk the Kool Aid.
4
These folks are the ones who want you to keep your money in their penny stocks till they can drain you no more. Beware of the liars and swindlers. They double as extreme optimists. They love Trump, because he makes them money. And when the market crashes, the same people will buy low. Eternal optimists.
6
In the best selling book: "The Art Of The Con", the author articulates his strategy.
Chapter II details "How to Mislead The Suckers". Change subjects often, quote unqualified staff but refer to them as White House experts, and supply fictitious numbers to support their fraudulent claims.
Chapter III acknowledges that 99% of the ignorant followers will never check the numbers and when actual experts dispute the wildly exaggerated claims, denigrate their work as "fake news".
As long as the con man can supply a convincing yarn, the con can continue. Meanwhile, loot the government as much as possible but craft a defense strategy, however ridiculous, in case the police wake from their slumber and prosecute the chief felon.
In the 19th century, con men peddled elixirs that cured everything from gout to cancer. Victims were fleeced of their money and drank useless garbage that may have exacerbated their conditions. In 2019, the American economy & the fabric of our nation are the victims. Given that most people rely upon their "gut feel" (aka: gas pains) to select a president versus checking credentials and past performance, the destruction of America is all but assured.
It's all in the book. Nothing new here.
6
Does anyone believe anything Trump says ? Not me.
7
Trump lies about the economy, just as he lies about everything else. Nothing new here except further proof that he lives in a bubble of his own fantasies.
8
Given what little or no credibility this administration has why would anyone other than trump believe them.
7
I wish people would stop yawping about campaigning and re-election and focus on now. What can we do about the economy now? What, maybe go out and buy a large American made pickup that burns a lot of gasoline?
1
While Mr. Trump may not understand economics, surely his advisers on the Economic Council do. Trump's policies have already slowed growth due to his lack of cohesive economic policy.
The tax cuts for the wealthy provided a brief stimulus, but we are already seeing that many will owe money this year due to the loss of personal deductions. The IRS has acknowledged this by waiving penalties for underpayment of estimated taxes in many cases.
Tariffs are a form of tax on Americans. The higher cost of certain goods lowers the ability of most Americans to buy other goods.
Growth is slowing in China and elsewhere and that can also drag down the US economy, while Mr. Trump pursues a trade war with China.
While my area of the country is growing, much to the dismay of many locals, many other areas are declining.
None of this bodes well long-term for the American economy.
5
The only thing unstoppable here, is Trump himself; as long as he remains in office, the country is being placed in the path of a wheat thresher.
Maybe now, America has learned a valuable, if not brutal lesson on those who run, and get elected to higher office.
8
trump should listen to the Federal Reserve-their forecasts are not based on political instincts.They are expert at reading the numbers.Trump’s people are down playing the three billion or so which will never be recouped from the shutdown, they are ignoring the significant dislocation of severe winter weather and they are not taking into account the losses from the trade war with China which are likely to get worse.Wishing for good numbers doesn’t make it happen-Mr.Trump you are sabotaging a once good economy in every way you can.
13
What Donald Trump says about the economy or almost anything else is irrelevant, because most likely it will be totally wrong. Actually, to find out what is true, just take the opposite of what Trump says.
16
@Bartokas
Bartokas comments are right on target.
Things have gotten to the point where most of our citizens have lost all faith into what Trump claims to be true.
When our leader and staff start ignoring THE FED and keep announcing their own version of growth you know that matters going from the ridiculous to the sublime. Never mind the fact that our leading economists supply us with numbers very different than our great leader.
Perhaps Trump is too busy planning his next futile visit to N. Korea since he is looking for something positive. We all know that in spite of all the P.R.,North Korea will not give up any of its nuclear stockpile, since they consider it their ticket to importance in the world community.
In actuality, Trump knows this.. so he merely depends on this second meeting merely as a photo-op opportunity and nothing else.
What a pitiful situation with the background Trump announcing each day that he is sure that the cooling off period will certainly fail and we would be in for another shutdown.
Pathetic.
2
I think it has to be remembered at all times, that most of what Trump and his administration says is either lies or just wrong. It's often hard to tell if they believe it or not, but the vast majority of the time what they say is not true.
For example, do y'all remember around Jan. 18th, Trump claimed there was going to be a huge announcement about the shutdown on the 21st? Nothing happened. That has been the pattern for every single claim that a big announcement or major evidence of something was going to be released.
Trump claims global waming doesn't exist, and he's right there because there's no such thing as waming. But global warming most certainly does, so again, he intended to lie (whether he believes the lie or not), he just can't spell.
Trump also claims women are being hauled over our border by force, bound and gagged. There is no evidence that this is true, and everyone at the border who would know, denies it.
So when Trump claims the economy will do wonderfully, because of his harebrained actions, he is lying. There is no reason to trust anything he says about any subject.
18
The only thing missing from Trumps perspective is any data to back it up. Anyone can exaggerate and lie. Trump has no ability to see into the future, but his tweets and actions can be a cause for change that is usually bad for everything and everybody.
11
"In 1983, the American economy grew 4.6 percent after adjusting for inflation. In 1984, it grew 7.2 percent ..."
Reagan's economy reflected the decrease in the inflation rate from 10-13% to 5-7%. At that time, Volcker was the most hated person in Washington, due to extreme tightening of interest rates. But maybe the Fed know what it was doing?
4
We tend to forget the Depression started in the farm economy in 1927. Personally I've been keeping an eye on what's been going on in the farm markets via RFDTV. Information that isn't covered very well by other news outlets. If it continues to slip may hap we will be in trouble.
5
Trump says a lot of things. We don’t need to report on them as if they’re legitimate notions/ideas/facts.
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@Alex
Exactly. The man is ill - malignant narcissistic personality disorder . . . for starters. Utterly unfit to serve - should have sought help decades ago. If congress had any spine, he could likely be removed under constitutional edict. Strange times, these.
3
Since 1920 or so, there's been a strong correlation between Republican presidencies and recessions. I don't know that it's causal. This armchair economist posits that Republicans have an outlook that tends to get them elected at the end of the business cycle. Surging religiosity due to economic pessimism? Fear of "others" competing for low-end jobs? Dunno.
12
It's causal. Trickle-down economics theory hasn't worked before and it won't work in the future.
It is a failed theory that has never borne fruit - except for the wealthy and corporations. Nothing trickles down. Never before, not now, not in the future. It doesn't work!
5
There's an inertia that keeps things moving, despite negative headlines, opposition or frustrated attempts to harm the US administration. Purely academics are like the military in peaceful countries: they tend to clean their weapons and brush dust from their preconceived ideas just to try to make themselves useful in an uncertain event that might never happen. The Cassandras out there, promoted by some media outlets, base their opinions on political bias and aren't really contributing to science and society. The single fact that all the POTUS says is considered irrelevant or false is hurting much more than the economy.
@Dkra
That may be, Dkra, but the fact remains that the POTUS lies a lot. And those lies do cause harm to the nation. And the "Cassandras" tend to base their opinions on fact, unlike the POTUS who seems to live in some alternative universe.
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@lynchburglady
On top of which, Cassandra was correct, & cursed that no one would believe her. Someone afflicted with "political bias" would be the precise *opposite* of a Cassandra.
President Trump, who is always right, is trying to prove his contention that the US is economy is unstoppable by doing all he can to stop it.
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Yep, Trump inherited an economy that was nearing contraction near the end of Obama's second term. He reversed an anti-business climate, pulled the stock market out of a slump and grew manufacturing jobs. In all of the Trump bashing, this often gets overlooked. Germany is looking at 1% growth in 2019. I'll take the Trump economy over the Warren/Harris/Ocasio-Cortez economy.
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@TL I've seen this called a "sugar rush". Time will tell.
2
@TL, "Pulled the stock market out of slump"? Obama tripled the stock market in eight years. A feat no other president has ever accomplished. not even FDR during a twelve year stint. I don't know whether this is right wing spin, a honest mistake or just plain stupidity but Trump has had a pretty decent run with the economy, there is no reason to add lies to the ledger. You're hitting your thumb with a hammer while you're trying to put it on the scale.
5
Give us a credible source for Obama leaving behind an economy nearing collapse or contraction. I'd wager it's breitbart.com.
That's propaganda, not news. Tell us your sources!
4
Because Trump's definition of the economy begins and ends in whatever Trump Organization profitable advantage that he is hiding from the American people in his personal and family income tax returns and business records he may be telling the truth.
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It's Our Deficits and Our National Debt that’s Unstoppable – not the economy!
We must find a way to hold self-interested and self-enriching Elected Politicians, government officials, their staffers and operatives from both parties personally and financially liable, responsible and accountable for the lies and half-truths they have told US, their gross mismanagement of our county, our $22 T and growing national debt (107% of GDP), and our $80 T in future, unfunded liabilities they forced on US jeopardizing our economic and national security, while benefiting themselves, their staffers, their party and special interest donors.
28
@US Debt Forum - so talk to the Republican party. Whenever the Democrats are in charge, they're all "stop the deficit growth" and the way they want to do it is by killing Social Security and Medicare. When they're in charge, it's "let it rise let it rise let it rise as long as the people funding our re-elections get a tax break". Let's put the blame exactly where it belongs.
19
Regan, Bush, and now Trump all have a hand in our current and future national debt. Tax cuts have produced more national debt than offsetting revenue. If you overlay national debt growth with these presidents terms you discover a mind blowing trend. Tax cuts accelerate national debt within two years of enactment. While reviewing G.W. Bush you need to keep in mind the cost of the Iraq & Afghanistan War’s and for Obama the ongoing Iraq & Afghanistan Wars and efforts to clean up the Great Recession. Bottom line... tax cuts produce nation debt because they reduce national income.
Democrats = Tax & Spend
Republicans = Tax Cut & Spend = Crushing Debt
3
@VB
True. Please, don’t be fixated on just Republicans – there is enough blame on both parties.
Look at this searchable database for how much of your debt has been incurred while each member of the Senate and House has been in office.
$21.5 trillion for Young, Republicans from Alaska - $21.4 trillion for Leahy, Democrat from Vermont.
Yes, 98% of our debt has been incurred while these members were in office!
Check out all the others from both parties including your members:
https://usdebtforum.com/elected-politicians-most-debt-incurred/
Sound to me like the usual political/economic cycle. Republican administrations tank the economy, then a Democratic administration is elected to do the hard repair job. Wish Americans would see the big picture.
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Yes Craig, Jimmy Carter was amazing for US economy.
And why don’t you read up on what Clinton’s deregulation of Big banks do. Look up 1993.
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@Craig Scott
And then repeat cycle. One wishes Americans would not simply see, but *learn*. -smh-
1
@Mike K.
For some reason whenever I think of the "Carter economy," I think of one word.
Ford.
1
Trump thinks he is unstoppable.
Most people will say otherwise.
32
Larry Kudlow, the chairman of the National Economic Council, told reporters that he believed the administration’s economic model was working:
“The program of lower tax rates and regulatory rollback and opening up energy and so forth is working and continuing to work. And I think frankly the optimists, the guys that took the over, will be right.”
---
Kudlow also said this in December 2007, just before the Bush-Cheney Great Depression materialized:
“There’s no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen. At a bare minimum, we are looking at Goldilocks 2.0. (And that’s a minimum). Goldilocks is alive and well. The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to come. Yes, it’s still the greatest story never told.”
http://money.com/money/5197470/trump-pick-kudlow-predictions/
Welcome to Trump University, everybody.
Head to the lifeboats.
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@Socrates, Kudlow has been spectacularly wrong often (always? Anybody know of any meaningful predictions that actually panned out?) And he has never acknowledged that he was wrong, either ignoring his previous statements or inventing a fantasy world in which he was actually correct - Reagan's tax cuts were responsible for the Clinton era growth, the recovery from the great recession proved that Bush's tax cuts worked.
Kudlow's analysis is completely backwards, instead of basing his judgements on a reasoned analysis of the real world situation, he invents worlds where lower taxes and small government are always the right choice.
27
It is wise to disregard the forecasts of any economist. They’re mostly wrong - remember Krugman predicting the economy would tank with Trump.
That said, Trump did not create the great overhang of debt, the most likely drag on growth; most of that was Bush II and Obama. Trump should get Kudos for calling-out, and challenging, China, the globalists, and the socialists.
Give his policies a chance to work - the results may surprise everyone.
the very definition of a Republican. there is no problem known to man that cannot be fixed with a combination of lower taxes and weaker regulations. ask anyone at your country club. it is received wisdom.
19
Can we just cut it out with the unsupported claims about fiscal spending and tax cuts for the wealthy? Tax cuts for billionaires do not increase spending-- they give a temporary bump to the stock market-- and then it's gone.
The market does not turn on a dime. in 2018 we were still benefiting from Obama's economy, but 2019 and 2020 will belong to the GOP and to Trump.
80
There is no reason to believe the Trump Administration has any expertise in economic matters. Nor that they bring any perspective to the situation beyond that if the handful of billionaires running their show.
Rather than expose their rosy fabrications, how about an exposé of their activities??
60
Everything seems to circle back to trump’s embracing the costanza reality -“if you believe it, it’s not a lie.”
He’s never in doubt about his statements and pretty much never correct.
Totally deluded to the detriment of the United States and the world.
51
Anything that is good for the economy is bad for me personally. Oil prices go up, good for the economy bad for my pocketbook. A company lays off workers, good for the stock price bad for the workers. And so on.
23
Trump's tax policy undoubtedly improved the outlook for the one-percenters. The future has dimmed for the rest.
33
Mnuchin, Kudlow and Trump - three prevaricators whose only economic concerns are the continued fudging of the facts to scam the people and line the pockets of the obscenely wealthy who will use their cash to ensure Trump's reelection - more of the same from oligarchs who care little for our democratic government or the issues that the economy should be addressing: real (not faux) tax reform; job retraining; curbs on burgeoning health care and pharmaceutical costs; funding for education; infrastructure and alternative energy supports Tax cuts, tariffs give me a break, low interest rates... band aids and while on the subject of money and the economy, what about campaign finance reform and the indirect impact this has on matters, not direct but should be a topic when discussing the economic equation. And, just an afterthought related to tax breaks when will those POTUS tax returns see the light of day?
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like the monarch butterfly Caterpillar is suffering a decline. Both need renewable energy to live and grow and prosper. Both must stay away from the tar pits to survive long term.
6
I respect economic analysis, but I’ve never seen such a gloomy profession. Even the great Paul Krugman can’t say anything good about the present economy. I get the feeling that economists relentlessly warn of an imminent recession so that when one occurs they can say they predicted it. Talk about self-fulfilling prophecy.
1
You need an economist to tell you that the deficit and tariffs will eventually lead a show down through increasinv interest rates either to satisfy bond holders as the dollar retreats or to combat inflation.
6
Trump's only economic reference point has been the stock market, which was rising before he came into office and has been tumbling despite "full employment."
You hear nothing from him since the market has given back all of 2018's gains in just the first three weeks of 2019. The effects of continued trade wars and shutdowns are too esoteric for Trump to understand.
36
Trump will keep shooting himself in the foot with more tariffs and shutdown threats.
The economy will tank and again, we will look to a Democratic President to pull America back from the brink.
It's happened time and time again in our history.
This go-around will be no different.
That is, unless Trump makes the U.S. his next bankruptcy.
Putin doesn't like people who default on what they've promised. And Trump has promised Putin everything.
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@D. DeMarco
Indeed, the Republicans over and over tank the economy, the Democrats rescue it, and then Americans elect Republicans again who tank the economy again.
When will they ever learn?
37
@Old Mountain Man No, they won't. They'll continue to believe the Republicans are better for the economy.
1
A car going over a cliff is also unstoppable until it hits the ground.
144
The current issues were in fact predicted as his policies have never worked for very long
17
Yeah... the economy is unstoppable for the 99.9% of Americans but in the wrong direction. The tax cuts didn't do squat for these Americans. GOP policies are toxic to the bulk of the American people, but they still vote them in time after time.
68
What about jobs? Do people with no jobs create jobs? I don’t think so. Perhaps you are just not interested in working or believe in the concept of each according to his needs regardless of their willingness to work.
4
Yes, look at the jobs. How many of them pay a living wage or lead to a real career? There lies the problem!
43
@jmac
You mean the blue state tax increases?
The "tax cut" is a massive tax increase because of the limitation of the "State and Local Tax" deduction to $10,000. (There is still no limitation on the "capital gains deduction".) My daughter is a school teacher earning almost exactly the US Median income. She hit this limit hard (houses, even condominiums, cost a lot).
Most home-owners in the SF Bay area who purchased within the past 15 or more years have been hit hard by this. And this is before the "peasants tax breaks" expire in a couple of years.
3
This would be the Hassett who predicted the Dow hitting 36,000 in the early 00's and Kudlow who in Spring 2008 was describing the US economy as in Goldilocks mode. When have this pair ever been right about anything.
111
@John Funny how so many investment and real estate entities encouraged people to buy homes in 2007 promising no end to rising values forever. But the signs were clear despite their lies and the country paid a horrible price. BTW, housing sales are slowing down as I write,
17
they say new mortgage applications have declined, and in some places housing prices are dropping, or not rising, or not rising as fast. as long as there are wage slaves who are vulnerable to losing their homes due to illness or job loss or manufactured government shutdown, Mnuchin can still drool, and therefore the economy looks rosy.
1
Even if it were true that deregulation and tax cuts for the wealthy benefit the economy, it’s an unhealthy way to do it. It’s mortgaging the future for the sake of a few drivers.
38
@Crs
Ah, but it is not true and never has been.
Trickle down economics is a Republican fairy tale.
Money is like cream. It always floats to the top.
18
@Larry
And is always the first thing to get skimmed off.
Economists never agree on anything and they are rarely accurate in their predictions. Presidents always paint a different picture of the economy than economists do. Are contradictions in differences between most economists, or some, economists important? They are not really important and are basically just politics as usual. I'm not sure how many economists are surveyed when people talk about most economists or who they are and what their political affiliation is, but that is something that should be disclosed when using terms like "most economists".
@NYChap
"Surely you're joking, Mr. Feynman." :)
@Bill Nichols - Mr. Feynman is dead and I'm not joking.
@NYChap
Yes, I know he is, hence the quotes. He wasn't into sweeping extrapolations, I don't think, but I'll just leave it here. :)
US GDP growth of 3% while running a government deficit of 4% of GDP sounds like a sugar high to me, rather than the "unstoppable" economy Trump boasts of.
Rising public and private debt levels appear to be a primary concern of big investors. Under-capitalized non-bank mortgage lenders have grown from 34% to 61% of all loans in just 4 years. Risks are growing in manufacturing and farming due to the trade war. And personal income gains have been skewed upward, leaving those in the lower half treading water at best.
The White House "Magic Show" is for his base.
79
"The Economy Won’t Rescue Trump"
-Paul Krugman 1-21-2019
When I read claims about the future of the economy with "pie in the sky" estimates by this Administration, I always go to my default economist for his thoughts.
If one reads the above article, and others, by Paul Krugman, it provides a more realistic view of where the economy is headed.
73
The economy is unstoppable, just like the three Trump Casinos in Atlantic City. The tax cuts for billionaires have provided the "rocket fuel" we needed. While I personally haven't seen any results yet in my own business, I understand the national debt is almost paid off. I'm tired of winning already. Thanks Trump!
48
Have Trump and his team of the best and the brightest ever entertained the slightest doubt about rosy economic outcomes, even when there was no objective reason for such optimism? Their assurances that all will be well and their casual discounting of so much serious economic analysis somehow fail to fill me with confidence or to assure me that if things do go wrong, they have a well thought out plan for dealing with it.
15
@lydgate
All will be well for Trump and his Billionaire Cabinet. They will not suffer, only benefit from the disastrous measures they impose on our country.
7
There will always be two American economies. The one that serious economists evaluate and report on. And the economic fantasy land that Trump and his band of enablers conjure up. Larry Kudlow is the perfect spinmeister in that regard. The next election may turn on Trump economic propaganda versus the real economy experienced by ordinary people.The gotcha question. Are you better off than four years ago?
83
If the economy is slowing, they’ll just cut taxes some more. Debt doesn’t matter, as long as it’s GOP created debt.
35
@EW
Exactly right. There's "good debt," & "bad debt." Per the current GOP administration in particular, good debt is if *we* do it. Bad is....
15
@Bill Nichols your "leader" is the self-identified "King of Debt".
While it is impossible to accurately forecast what the economy will do in the coming year, one thing is sure. Trump will continue to create chaos, and the result will not be positive for most Americans.
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