Your 2019 Tax Refund Might Be Higher, Lower or Later Than Usual

Jan 27, 2019 · 100 comments
AACNY (New York)
From the WSJ, the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan research group's, study: "They divided about 175 million American households into five income tiers of roughly 65 million people each. The income includes earnings from wages and investments plus untaxed amounts, such as from health coverage. These additions nearly double the income of people in the lowest tier and add about 20% for those in the highest tier. The results show how steeply progressive the U.S. income tax remains. For 2018, households in the top 20% will have income of about $150,000 or more and 52% of total income, about the same as in 2017. But they will pay about 87% of income taxes, up from about 84% last year. By contrast, the lower 60% of households, who have income up to about $86,000, receive about 27% of income. As a group, this tier will pay no net federal income tax in 2018 vs. 2% of it last year. *********** * "Top 20% of Americans Will Pay 87% of Income Tax" https://www.wsj.com/articles/top-20-of-americans-will-pay-87-of-income-tax-1523007001
Jessica Summerfield (New York City)
@AACNY yes, but the top 20% includes households earning over $150,000; hardly the super rich. I suspect the top 1-3% paid far less than their fair share.
AACNY (New York)
Despite democrats' denial, a majority of Americans did receive a tax cut: "Independent analyses, including by the Tax Policy Center in Washington, project that the vast majority of Americans received a tax cut from the new law in its first year, and only 5 percent saw a tax increase, including some higher-earning Americans in high-tax states who will no longer get as big a state and local tax break."
Modaca (Tallahassee FL)
My dad was furious when the gov't starting taking money out every month rather than demanding the amount by 4/15!
KL Pawl (NH)
I will say that the form (1040) is easier. With the higher standard deduction (one thing I will give Trump credit for) the complication of proving that I deserve my itemized deductions is gone. Same with many adjustments to income that I no longer have to justify (they're gone too). I was confused as to how exemptions and some credits were handled, but now that I'm educated on that then future years should be easier.
The 1% (Covina California)
I don’t need the IRS to tell me we will be worse off. We make combined 165k just above a tax bracket threshold and my SALT was cut and my tax money will now be sent to the very wealthy and will subsidize the Chinese as debt holders plus Wyoming and Idaho: states with 2 senators who gleefully signed onto a tax scheme designed to punish blue states. Our household counted on SALT and it’s gone. The movement in California to limit the harm fell by the wayside too. This is one reason the GOP were crushed like a grape in my state. Since the IRS provided a calculator in early 2018 that offered advice to users, I smell a class/action lawsuit. That calculator under-reported my set asides. If fact, IRS really has no clue what will happen once the full effect of the GOP Tax Lie takes effect. But we won’t be buying any yachts soon thats for sure. Hello Recession!
The 1% (Covina California)
Weekend update! Despite the fact that we both set our paycheck deductions to ZERO, we owe the feds $5,200 which is $2,900 more than last year. Rest assured that we will not be buying a new car, fridge, home improvements, or any high ticket item this year. The rest of America can do what they want, but THIS middle class earner has no intention of contributing to our buy buy buy economy. Recession, here we come. The Home mortgage interest deduction was used by folks like me to help acquire a home for the last 50 to 60 years. We now get taxed twice on our incomes by removal of the state and local income tax deduction. Removal of these deductions by the GOP makes zero sense except their wealthy backers take more and more from the rest of us every year. Once they eliminate all incentives for the middle class to invest, what have you got? A banana republic, that’s what.
AACNY (New York)
@The 1% You are not sending tax money to the wealthy. Their money is their own, which they've earned. You are simply not getting to deduct your high real estate taxes. Take it up with your state elected officials.
Paul (Larkspur CA)
I am AARP TaxAide volunteer. We will start preparing 2018 returns starting this Friday, Feb. 1. The major changes to tax law have require major updates to the documentation we use and this has been exacerbated by the government shutdown. Most of the tax payers we serve expect a refund. It is never pleasant to inform a person that they owe money. Many, who are concerned about owing money, delay filing until the April. You don't have to pay when you file, you have until April 15. File as early as you can and give yourself more time to examine your options if you owe money.
S. L. (US)
Who says that the GOP believes in LIMITED government? Uncle Mitch of Kentucky with his GOP colleagues did exactly what their Party promises: They passed a tax cut that LIMITS the power of US citizens in rich states to deduct their state income taxes, LIMITS the right of US citizens in rich states to count on traditional exemptions to lower federal tax, and LIMITS the right of rich states to decide how and where they plan to spend their tax dollars. Last but not least, the Mitch GOP and his comrades in arms used Government to raid the US treasury to benefit America's top .1 percent, rendering hollow their long-running pledge to lower America's deficit.
CountryGirl (Rural PA)
I suppose I should be happy that my husband and I get so little in Social Security retirement and disability benefits that we don't have to file income tax returns. The threshold is $50K for a married couple. And we do appreciate the COLA adjustment. That extra $50 per month goes straight to the fuel oil company, which increased our monthly budget payment by $65. We'll just have to rob Peter to pay Paul for the rest of our lives. Thanks, GOP, for helping the rich get richer and leaving the rest of us to ponder our decisions to work hard for 45-50 years and lose all our savings (and then some) to injuries and serious illnesses. Just love Trump's big beautiful health care plan!
Devin Greco (Philadelphia)
My refund better go up since they doubled the standard deduction and I don't itemize my returns, but based on my calculations it won't. My tax rate remained exactly the same, 25% so I saw no benefit in my pay check. The tax cuts seemed to help the top .1% more than anyone else just like everything else the criminal racketeering operation masters in the white house do they enrich the rich and themselves first.
Marie (Boston)
RE: "The Treasury Department was given discretion to set new withholding levels" There was a warning the withholding levels may be set too low in order to give the illusion of more money but that the levels may not be enough to cover your tax liabilities. We were warned, by the IRS no less, to use tax estimating tools to determine what your tax liability would be and not accept the withholding levels as an indication of our tax bills due. This was especially true if you had SALT deductions in prior years. My tax bill factored out to $4000 more than last year. Seeing this I made drastic cuts in my witholdings to compensate, thus taking a GOP sponsored pay cut. Plus I will still have to pay when I file. RE: "That is because those taxpayers are more likely to have claimed large deductions for state and local taxes paid on their federal returns." This is not necessarily only "high income taxpayers". I live in a house at the low end of the houses in my town outside of Boston. Yet the income taxes and real estate taxes were more than enough to itemize even in what is less desirable community. I can't imagine I am alone with affects. And, let's not forget the elimination of anything but the first mortgage. But blue states paying even more while red states pay less wasn't a bug, it was a major feature. It isn't enough for Trump and the GOP to benefit someone, punishing or causing others pain was a reason to vote for them. "He's not hurting those he is suppose to hurt."
Marie (Boston)
RE: "The Treasury Department was given discretion to set new withholding levels" We were warned, by the IRS no less, the withholding levels may be set too low to give the illusion of more money in people’s checks but that the levels may not be enough to cover your tax liabilities. We were told touse tax estimating tools to determine what our tax liability would be and not accept the withholding levels. This was especially true if you had SALT deductions in prior years. My tax bill factored out to $4000 more than last year. Seeing this I made drastic cuts in my withholdings to compensate, thus taking a GOP sponsored pay cut. Plus I will still have to pay when I file. RE: "That is because those taxpayers are more likely to have claimed large deductions for state and local taxes paid on their federal returns." This is not necessarily only "high income taxpayers". I live in a house at the low end of the houses in my town outside of Boston. Yet the income taxes and real estate taxes were more than enough to itemize even in what is less desirable community. I can't imagine I am alone with affects. And, let's not forget the elimination of anything but the first mortgage for interest deductions. But blue states paying even more while red states pay less wasn't a bug, it was a major feature. It isn't enough for Trump and the GOP to benefit someone, punishing or causing others pain was a reason to vote for them. "He's not hurting those he is supposed to hurt."
Mike (Little Falls, NY)
My taxes went up in 2018 by design. Republicans decided that I, as a New Yorker, 30% of whose federal taxes go to red states, needed to pay more; and that red states, many of which receive 40-50% of their state budgets from blue state taxpayers like myself, needed a tax cut. That's all this was: a nakedly partisan tax cut. Up for the Democrats, down for the Republicans. Republicans have absolutely no problem redistributing the wealth of blue states to their broke, uneducated, under- or unemployed red state constituents.
AACNY (New York)
@Mike The average property taxes in US are $3500. One might ask why the federal government is subsidizing your high taxes.
Marie (Boston)
If Mr. Trump were a middle class homeowner in NY he'd be tweeting "UNFAIR!!! GOP changed the rules after the fact!" There has been a social contract for decades. Decades. Regardless how you feel about it, the social contract to include home ownership was a fundamental part of the middle class American dream. It was there because we believed that private home ownership benefited our communities with the idea that people take better care of what's theirs. Millions bought houses under this social contract. All those people went by the rules to determine whether they could and should buy a house. The rules included being to deduct mortgage interest and state and local taxes. Being around for generations there was no reason to expect the rules to change so fundamentally and vindictively - especially by those promising a "tax cut". After people bought houses and took mortages in good faith following the rules, the GOP comes along and changes them aiming right at the American Dream. After people are essentially locked in by decisions they made years ago, or even just before this plan came out, under the social contract that was in place. They are saying that home ownership is no longer part of the American middle class, like unions, or the right to sue. A country of renting tenants, laboring in right-to-work states, required to use company arbitration, without health care or retirement benefits is the new social contract that sounds just perfect to GOP.
Devin Greco (Philadelphia)
@Marie Never trust a Republican. The law and order party is actually double speak for criminals legalizing crime.
Rachelle (Portland)
My taxable income was 62K in 2018. I've never owed taxes to the feds before. Typically I receive $1000 tax return. Own a basic house. With the elimination of the personal exemption from Trump's TCJA, I owe $800 this year.
DisgruntledAndDisallusioned (Central NJ)
This stinks! Usually we get back enough to pay Christmas bills and put a little aside for family vacation. This year not only will we get nothing back, we are going to pay for the first time in 25 years!!! But, Trump's friends at Mar-a-lago are going to be real happy. He already told them so, and for once, he wasn't lying.
Ma (Atl)
"while 46,000 employees were called back to work without pay, many did not show up. Many taxpayers calling with questions faced delays of over an hour." 46,000 employees to work the IRS? And no one questions this?! I have NEVER been on hold less than 1 hour after reaching out mover 20 times in the last 18 years. Never. The IRS is filled with incompetence, you can ask a question of 5 people and know you'll get 6 different answers. Seriously, has anyone here ever dealt with the likes of this incompetent organization within our government? And to those that did not show up - you deserve NO back pay.
msf (NYC)
The whole tax law seems to be a vindictive swipe at hi-tax + high real-estate tax states, those states that for the most part did not vote for Trump. Between state + RE tax we will have a loss of 10-15k - add tuition + we have to cut savings for retirement.
Jennene Colky (Denver)
I am retired and livi g on a fixed income. My tax preparer forecasted my 2018 taxes when she prepared my 2017 return last year based on what was known at that time about Trump's tax give-away and found absolutely no difference, so no big ticket spending for me!
Max J Dog (Dexter, Mi)
I read the irs notices on withholding changes was careful to revisit my w-4 filing to be correct and follow the IRS worksheet and guidance. I have done a dry run on my taxes and my withholding was way to low. I now have a huge tax bill that i would gladly have paid more last year in withholding to avoid. The 1/2 $%^& way that Congress rammed through the robber baron tax cut legislation, with no meaningful review and debate, at the 11th hour, ensured that there would be much pain inflicted on average taxpayers for people whose use case did not conform to whatever limited scenario testing was rushed through in time to get forms and guidance out in early 2018. It was bad policy incompetently administered.
[email protected] (Joshua Tree)
if so many taxpayers are getting - and counting on - refunds, doesn't that suggest they're having too much withheld,loaning money to the feds and states at 0% interest? here are a couple of nifty fixes! 1) claim a loss forward of the interest income foregone - that should confuse the decimated IRS for years to come, and b) every American taxpayer, even those sponging non-citizens who earn legal money here, should declare Donald J. Trump as a dependent child on their tax returns. let the IRS try to argue against that one!
Heidi (Upstate, NY)
So 4 Million Americans will pay more and 4 Million Americans will have no refund this year. A potential 8 Million Americans, that could all be in for a very big surprise this tax season. And I am certain all those 8 Million fall into or below the middle class.
Ed L. (Syracuse)
"Higher, lower or later..." That covers most of the bases. I filed last week and I'm expecting my federal refund in 7-14 days. And I'm getting back way more than I expected, almost twice as much. This poor person is not unhappy with the new tax legislation.
Sandra (Missoula MT)
Okay, everybody enjoy your refund of a couple hundred dollars. Feel good so you won't think about the rich and the trillion dollar deficit their "refunds" and corporate windfalls have created.
lucky13 (NY)
One thing I noticed about the new 1040 federal tax form is that you're asked to sign on the first page. After that you fill in al the vital information. It seems strange not to sign a legal document on the bottom line.
eduKate (Ridge, NY)
It ain't over til it's over. The effects of this sweeping tax reform won't be known until it all comes out in the wash. Just as the president apparently didn't expect China to retaliate for the tariffs, I doubt that Paul Ryan and company figured on taxpayers lowering their withholding and thus slowing income to the government. I think this tax season will be interesting but maybe not pleasant for a lot of average Americans.
Jules (NY)
I feel the ship is going to hit the sand this tax season for millions of Americans.
pbonner (Durham, NC)
The article should have included mention of the IRS's recent acknowledgment of uncertainty and easing of requirements for withholding and other estimated tax prepayments to 85% instead of the statutory 90% of the amount a taxpayer winds up owing. Notice 2019-11 applies only to individual taxpayers for a full 2018 tax year.
Doremus Jessup (On the move)
Donald. How about this. I'll pay my taxes when you show me that you've paid yours. Sound like a deal?
David (Vermont)
Be ready for a shock when you do your taxes! I went from a $2000 refund last year to owing $1200 this year. This is not due to any changes on my part but because the IRS withheld less than they should have. I told everyone who would listen that this would happen. Republicans set the withholding lower so that they could compete in the 2018 midterms. And now tax time is here and we are finding out the truth. I made $7000 less in gross income and yet had a taxable income of $7000. This is because of the elimination of the personal exemption and important deductions. Republicans will do anything to get elected even rig the IRS to make you think you have more money!
AACNY (New York)
@David First, the IRS doesn't withhold anything. Your employer withholds based on your instructions. Second, you have to look at the actual "tax amount due" in both years to determine whether your taxes actually rose. As the article said, withholding and refunds have little to do with amount of tax owed.
Barbara (SC)
All refunds are essentially a return of an interest free loan to the government. The goal should be to minimize one's refund without owing any extra money, while putting the difference into savings, home renovations, and other needs. I don't understand the thinking of those who depend on refunds or those who take refund loans to get the money a bit faster. It makes more sense to sock the money away and get paid to do it (interest).
Chris (CA)
@Barbara I agree with everything you wrote. It would be much more worthwhile for people to use their extra withholding to pay down credit card, student loan or other debt than to allow the government to use it interest-free. However, there is a mindset out there that feels they are somehow getting ripped of if they don't receive a refund every year. Paying off a credit card is essentially earning 23% or more on your investment rather than earning zero and paying 23% or more on your debt.
Barbara (SC)
@Chris I agree, though except in cases of dire emergency, I wouldn't dream of building up credit card debt. I charge everything I can and pay it all off monthly, earning 2% in the process. That puts me 25% ahead of those who are paying 23% on debt.
Marie (Boston)
@Barbara I know. People are inperfect. They aren't trying to eek every last cent from the Government. They are so dumb not to be bothered. Who would have known that the great IRS Fear Factor would be so effective?
Dan Shiells (Natchez, MS)
It's baffling that so many people depend on refunds for an injection of cash, essentially making it their tax strategy to loan the government money throughout the year at no interest. Obviously, it is near impossible to estimate your income completely (especially this year) but to regard your with-holding and estimated taxes as a form of a forced savings is fiscally unsound. On the other hand, if people didn't do this, the government would need to collect more taxes, so maybe it's just one of those things that works by not working. By the way, as someone who will benefit from the pass-through income discount but lose on the home equity change, let me offer pass -through: I asked my accountant whether certain allowances in the equity restrictions would apply to me. He answered that he does not know because the IRS has yet to offer guidance in that area. Think about it: Tax season has started and the IRS still is unclear about the rules.
cheryl (yorktown)
My (wan) hope is that themany disggruntled tax payers - especially those who find themselves with a surprise bill come April - remember that this mess is entirely the consequence of Republican obstinacy and fumbling. For a group so elated to have passed their tax cuts for the wealthy, why did they not smooth the way to correctly accommodate the massive changes.That means making the new rules clear, getting all information online and accessible to all. including all of the state tax departments. They were not been adequately funding the IRS before the shutdown --now, I can only imagine what a mess exists. And so -- they are bankrupting the country by cutting off revenue; they are adding massive expenses of government tax collectors at federal, state and local levels; and then they collaborated with Trump on the government shutdown which increased the costs by more millions. Now, some individuals are going to feel a direct impact. I hope it makes them as angry as I am. This is like watching a bunch of kindergartners at "work. " There is no apparent assessment of the total effects of the changes being made - or if there has been -- the conclusions have been kept undercover. I wouldn't be surprised if any negative reports were actively suppressed under this administration. It's utterly discouraging.
Nick Metrowsky (Longmont CO)
This article fails to mention that if you live in a state, with state income tax, and they tie your tax able income to the federal AGI, then your taxes went up, at the state level. This si especially true if the state did not lower their tax rates, to compensate for the federal changes. So, it is possible to pay less in federal tax, but more in state tax. The article also fails to mention the loss of exemptions, which will affect families, senior and disabled taxpayers. Effectively, compared to 2017, the $12000 standard deduction is short about $1550 less. For seniors/disabled, it is about $3000 less. Even though the bracket percent rates went down, the changes actually cause taxes to increase, under certain circumstances. In my personal case, I would have received about a $250 refund from the IRS and about $60 from Colorado, in refunds, under the old tax law. Under the changes, I owe about $250 to the IRS and $100 to Colorado. So, instead of a $310 refund, I owe $350; a $660 swing. This was no middle class tax cut, and not a retiree tax cut. The worse part about this is that they left the non-indexed fro inflation Social Security income in place. Which means paying more taxes on Social Security and retirement income. People like Trump, and members of Congress, have already figured out how to pay less taxes than i will be paying. For most middle class, working class, and retired people, they are in for a rude awakening. It is worse than portrayed here.
[email protected] (Joshua Tree)
our plan iz vorkink pervectly, he he he...
james (Higgins Beach, ME)
My wife and I are public school educators and we will receive less than last year and the year before... Yet again, thanks for literally less than nothing GOP.
Socrates (Downtown Verona. NJ)
C'mon, James, Trump and the Reverse-Robin-Hood GOP did give you something......the SHAFT !
Jules (NY)
What scares me about the new tax system just as much as the salt limits is the elimination of the personal exemption (PE) right off the top. Sure, they doubled the standard deduction but without the PE you're back to square one and if you itemize, you're skewered with the SALT limit. I have a family of three in a modest home on Long Island and I know that I will be paying substantially more this year. I truly fear a debacle is coming that could send our uncertain economy over the cliff.
[email protected] (Joshua Tree)
if you live out on LI in a modest home and have a small family, you are statistically a middle class Democrat, so no tax benefit for you, Bunky! if you were out in Idaho, or Texas, or Arizona or some other nice, regressive red state, possibly with no state income tax and a low,low real estate tax on low-priced property, you might see a modest benefit for a short time, if you made enough money. how many can see the Republican tax plan for the boondoggle it really is? it is meant to help the GOP base and punish those coastal liberal elites with the high state and local taxes and wasteful social programs. don't forget to claim your yacht slip and private jet as a business expense!
Out loud (California)
We owed taxes for the first time since we began working 35 years ago. And our checks weren’t any bigger. Tax cut was a scam.
Anthony (Missouri)
@Out loud It's not the presidents fault that you live in the highest taxes state. My return is $590 higher and I got $21 extra a month on my checks. I don't mind a $800+ increase.
Marie (Boston)
@Anthony - "It's not the presidents fault that you live in the highest taxes state." Yes - all of our parents should have known that the social contract would be brokem by a greedy president and the Republicans and birthed us elsewhere. Yes - when we took our jobs or bought that house we should have known that someone would come along and change all the rules after holding us to the rules. But is is the president's fault when you actually target specific populations to create pain where none is needed. Remember the comment from a Trump supporter "He isn't hurting the people he is supposed to hurt." As I've said its not good enough to win, or to help people, the vindictive nature of the GOP is to punish. That is their fault.
Barbara (Missouri)
@Anthony I live in Missouri. No deduction for son's college tuition, lost $8100 in withholding, no reason to give to charity. My tax debt went up. as for the state tax. Last year I got $500 back; this year I owe more than $200.
Butch Burton (Atlanta)
I have been a sub chapter S corporation since the early 1980's. The forms are rather involved but the people who work for the IRS have been very helpful. Our president is also a sub chapter S corporation but much later than myself. I am what sub chapter S was designed for and not billionaire draft dodgers. A sub chapter S corporation pays 9% federal taxes and a small percentage of that in state taxes. Also in my county, Forsyth, I pay no school taxes and being a veteran, I pay no tax on my vehicle and do not have to pay for the annual inspection for emissions. Yes I have a great deal on taxes but I am also a veteran, not a draft dodger. Bone spurs - yes U get them when U are above 50 and soft inserts helps eliminate the pain of having bone spurs.
[email protected] (Joshua Tree)
nothing has eliminated my pain at having President Bone Spurs in office.
Jennifer (Nashville, TN)
Perhaps my reading comprehension skills are lacking but how do the banks come up with the idea that there will be a tax bonanza when the GAO noted that: about four million more filers will have a balance to pay on their taxes this year, and four million fewer will receive refunds... If there will more people paying and fewer people receiving then were will all these extra tax dollars come from? Millionaires who will buy their 16th yacht?
Covert (Houston tx)
The only reason this is unpredictable is because the Trump administration has made it that way. If it was good news, they would have been crowing about it already. So it is most likely bad news.
Kyle (CA)
Deduct the days the fed was closed. Make them audit you. Go to press.
cheryl (yorktown)
@Kyle You've got more guts than I do. Those of us without an attorney or two or twelve on call ( maybe even working "for free) are on our own, and not likely to get away with refusing to cooperate for long. No 2013 taxes still in abeyance . . .
Christy (WA)
My tax refund is going to be lower than last year's so where's the $4,000 tax cut Trump promised us ordinary wage earners. Oh, I forgot, after jacking up the deficit with a huge tax cut for the super-rich, he decided to hurt our economy some more with a government shutdown -- what the Economist called "a case study in presidential incompetence."
Sw (Sherman Oaks)
I hope it is much higher for all those ridiculous people who are continuing to ignore Trump’s long history of theft and his theft of our national assets. That three week closure allowed this CORRUPT administration to close a lot of deals that never should have happened. He is raiding our nation’s assets. He is stealing from you and me.
cherrylog754 (Atlanta, GA)
Well I know one person whose taxes went down, DJT. Thanks to his Republican Congress. Of course the rest of us will pick up the slack.
[email protected] (Joshua Tree)
don't forget the Kushners, Mnuchin, and others benefitting from special bargain rates for real estate types.
Scott (Paradise Valley, Arizona)
"Mr. Trump’s tax law capped that deduction, known as S.A.L.T., at $10,000 per household per year." This makes sense, since we're for everyone paying their fair share, it's only fair that we reduce taxbreaks for the wealthy in West Chester, NY, et al., who live in high tax areas, imposed upon them by local and state legislators, and who gladly write them off while wagging their fingers at Kentucky and Alabama as takers. A real government giveaway, or if you're Cuomo, a stake through the economic heart of New York!
Marie (Boston)
@Scott So, in favor of paying taxes on taxes. Paying taxes on taxes argument was pretty much of the basis of GOP arguments against inheritence taxes. Yup, the GOP wants it both ways to their advantage.
AACNY (New York)
@Scott Yes, it's something to see all the complaining about having to forego a tax deduction. You'd never know these are the same progressives who love to increase other people's taxes.
MissyR (Westport, CT)
Our taxes went up and deductions went down. The great convoluted tax cut bill rammed through Congress last year essentially punishes many of us in the blue states, and pays down the cut’s effects for everyone else. The ripple effects have hit the real estate market and people are leaving CT in droves. Blue states pay so some poor dupes can get an extra $250 in their paychecks over the course of a year, and the 1% benefit indefinitely.
John Goodman (Belmont MA)
For a single filer, the standard deduction has gone from $10,400, with one exemption, to $12,000, So it's misleading to claim the new law doubles the standard deduction, since exemptions have been eliminated.
Chris Conklin (Honolulu)
Relatively affluent family with lots of labor income, and with the elimination of the SALT deductions (a bit of political retribution against the blue states, one of which I'm a proud resident!), the tax cut is pretty much a wash. Capital gains distributions by losing investments during 2018 during the miserable last month on Wall Street don't help matters. We are getting a nasty surprise this April and will be writing a huge check to the IRS - even though we paid estimated taxes carefully calculated by a CPA under the new tax code. The withholding tables provided by the IRS under such time pressure resulted, at least for us, in a fairly large under-withholding throughout the year. Suspect many others may get an April surprise also...
jeriannw (Cleveland )
My husband & I expected to have to pay something in taxes, but we are going to have to pay about twice what we paid last year. We lost the deduction for his home office and for our state and local taxes. He has to work from home because he lives more than 50 miles from the nearest physical company office. We have some of the highest local taxes in the state of Ohio. I agree. I think folks will be in for an unpleasant surprise.
Socrates (Downtown Verona. NJ)
The Trump-GOP 2017 Tax Cut was a massive 0.1% welfare and red Republican state welfare handout with the bill charged to blue Democratic states. And the Republican Party and Trump also refuse to properly staff the IRS so it can properly enforce the tax code and go after tax cheats, tax dodgers and tax evaders. We have met the enemy and it is Republican. Get ready for a massive blue tsunami in 2020 to wipe Russian-Republican oligarchy and welfare off the face of the American political map.
Into the Cool (NYC)
@Socrates I hope you are correct.
[email protected] (Joshua Tree)
why did Dillinger rob banks?
Ari (Chandler, AZ)
saved 300 dollars a month during 2018 because the top of my marginal tax rate fell from 28 to 24 %. AND got a little bit more back in my taxes. Tax reform has really been a benefit for me. I make 120,000 a year. Most Americans will benefit from Tax reform. Doubling the standard deduction is huge. 70 percent of Americans don't itemize and young people are not buying house like in the past. The Child tax credit is a straight refund now even if you paid ZERO in taxes. None of this is hardly mentioned by the big networks. We just hear how it's all a tax grab for the wealthy and that's simply not true.
jeriannw (Cleveland )
Speak for yourself. My tax bill is doubling.
David (Vermont)
@Ari Congratulations on the tax cut. When those of us in the Northeast lose our houses based on the major tax increase that we are suffering, we are all going to move in with you. Maybe you have time to quickly build a wall around your house before we get there.
Jules (NY)
@Ari Lucky for you that you will get money from this deal and live a state that also get more money from the federal govt than it sends to DC. Arizona is the 7th most dependent state. Very lucky. I was there last year and loved it. NY tax payers not so lucky.
A.A.F. (New York)
“For your average taxpayer it’s going to be a record high tax refund season. Much higher than they expected,” said Ellen Zentner, chief United States economist at Morgan Stanley” The tax cut revisions are a windfall for the rich and corporations. I consider myself an average tax payer and I do not expect a record high refund if any refund at all. Thanks to the GOP; my state and property tax deductions are limited to $10,000 (currently, my state and property taxes are well over $10,000). No more personal exemptions (was $8,100.00 in 2017 – married couple with no dependent children, having dependents would have increase that number $4,050.00 per dependent). No more interest deductions on equity loans which is really petty. Not sure of what other limitations/surprises are lurking out there for the 2018 income tax filing, time will tell. As for me, the standard deduction of $24,000 the President/GOP embraced does not make up for the deductions that I can no longer claim. Sadly enough, in the eyes, limited scope and minds of the GOP/ President; they support their self-interest by deeming these deductions as excessive/extravagant for Americans while they continue to reward the rich in our society.
Brian (Sacramento )
I guess I'm the only guy that benefitted from the tax cuts. I'm @ $75k per year income for a family of 3 with a small mortgage in California. Last March I started getting an extra $50 per month. I will get back $637 more on my tax return. I guess I was the right profile targeted by the tax cuts. Sorry about that everybody...
dgordon (nyc)
@Brian Glad that someone, beyond the corporations and super rich, is benefiting. Enjoy that refund.
David (Vermont)
@Brian You also got higher interest rates on everything from mortgage and student loans to credit cards (thanks to the tax bill) and now a ballooning federal deficit. Of course I got those things, too, but without the tax cut.
OpieTaylor (Metro Atlanta)
@Brian You are lucky. No need to apologize but can understand why. No one wants to give Trump credit as he rarely knows what he is doing. Okay, "never" knows what he is doing. I also hope your savings and maybe for others that it will offset the increased expenses from other Trump decisions such as tariffs that from what I understand will surely affect many products that will have to increase in price to cover Trump's brilliancy. As this article stated the IRS is struggling with personnel and keeping up with changes. Personally I can't ever reach them, and when I do I get a different answer from each person I communicate with. I'd like to see our Tax system more toward the KISS method: Keep It Simple Stupid. When most Americans have to hire someone to do their "required" taxes, it definitely isn't simple. Add Trump into the picture and we can clearly define chaos.
Cindy L (Modesto, CA)
Unreimbursed work expenses and charitable deductions have been restricted. Oh, but look! I'm getting $100 more in my paycheck! Meanwhile, my husband's small business deductions are changing all over the place. It's too soon to know for sure, but it looks like we'll be taking a pasting this year. Good thing I've been setting that "extra" $100.
AACNY (New York)
@Cindy L The charitable deduction is still available without itemizing.
Carl (Wimberley, Tx)
My refund will be less. I ran my 2017 numbers through the new 2018 form. I saved $9 a week with the new tax law but the withholding on my pension was $15 / week lower. I guess they wanted me to think I was getting a better break than I was. I knew Sen. Cruz was pulling a fast one during the tax bill campaign. You'd always here him talk of the doubling the standard deduction but say nothing about eliminating the personal exemption.
Brian (Sacramento )
@Carl, I disagree with your assessment. I got back an extra $50 per month beginning last March and I will be receiving an additional $637 after filing my taxes. I'm under $70k annual income for a family of 3. The standard deduction faired better than itemizing with my mortgage etc. How did it work out so well for me? I'm not rich. Corporations did well in the tax reform bill. Not the individual wealthy.
Zigg (PDX)
You can bet Cruz got a bigger refund.
Leo (PA)
Do you have a source to support that statement?
Frank Casa (Durham)
It's too much too expect that those people who unthinkingly repeat the self-serving cry of conservatives about the uselessness of government, have had time to reflect on the negative effects on our lives that the absence of government and its regulations has. It will be interesting to see, once the new regulations are put into practice, what damage to the average citizen this wholesale dumping of money on the wealthy will bring.
Meg (Troy, Ohio)
There should not be uncertainties like this for taxpayers if the bill had been properly created and vetted instead of being rammed through by Trump and his Congressional cronies in the GOP. This administration gets more incompetent, negligent and corrupt daily. America is falling apart.
Wiltontraveler (Florida)
Perhaps the tax cut was good for some people, but I've pretty much completed a dry run of my taxes, enough to know that I'll pay more than under the old system. I fall in the bracket that penalized the middle of middle income. That adds insult to injury: a federal deficit so large that we're all going to pay a hefty penalty in future, just to line the pockets of the wealthy and corporations. The so-called "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" was the biggest scam ever visited on the American public. Real title: "The Welfare for the Wealthy Act."
dgordon (nyc)
@Wiltontraveler, Yes absolutely! That's the real crime here. Thanks for reminding us that this atrocity of a "tax cut" is so much larger than our individual tax burdens.
jazzme2 (Grafton MA)
@Wiltontraveler let's wait until all the data is in before we point fingers at where the blame or praise should be. It's kind of a big unknown until the data arrives. IMHO you'll be right Wiltontraveler: "The Welfare for the Wealthy Act." but maybe not; maybe more folks do better with this new tax code time will tell
Cathy (Binghamton, NY)
@Wiltontraveler we are in the same situation here on this end of upstate New York outside of Ithaca. AND my congressional representative, Tom Reed voted for it AND got reelected!
Bill (Atlanta, ga)
My taxes went up this year. The big tax cuts was a fraud.
Shane (Houston, TX)
@Bill My taxes stayed the same and I'm getting more back this year. So I guess the "big tax cuts" wasn't a fraud?
Ed L. (Syracuse)
@Shane Most NY Times readers are liberal Democrats from high-tax states, and since most of these comments are complaints about tax returns they haven't even filed yet, the tax bill must be bad. Because Trump. This is logic, partisan-politics style.
Charles (New York)
@Shane It was a fraud. Lower taxes for everyone except a few in the middle class. Fairness would suggest there should have been a save harmless clause (you know "sorry but your taxes are not going down, but not up either") if you are going to call it a "tax cut".
dgordon (nyc)
This SALT limit is of great concern to me. I am middle class and bought a modest house in the suburbs of NYC a few years ago. My property tax is near 10K (about the norm for a starter home in the Long Island suburbs) and my state tax is about 7K. This effectively means I cannot deduct my state tax at all. I have really taken a hit on my taxes and will be paying much more this year. This SALT limit is a targeted swipe at blue states.
MM (Schenectady NY)
My accountant did a preliminary calculation for 2019 Because of SALT I will lose 11k in deductions and owe an additional 1300. For the record I live in upstate NY near Albany, widowed, income less than 70k. So much for benefits to middle class
Regina in Civitatem (Washington)
@dgordon I’m so glad to see you and others pointing out how many taxpayers are falling into this group that is disadvantaged by the “tax cut” legislation. We calculated early on that our bill would be 5K higher (with no change in income) so we made estimated tax payments near that amount to avoid being penalized. For the first time in the over fifty years we’ve been filing taxes, we will get no refund, but will be writing a check. Needless to say, we will be communicating with our Congressional representatives about how unfair it is for us to experience a 20% increase while the truly rich get a huge break.
Pat (NYC)
@MM Vote for a progressive in 2020...