I am surprised at the bias in this story and in others I have read in the Times covering Brexit. I am an American living in the UK and consider myself to be a progressive. I was not entitled to vote in the referendum but would have voted to remain if I had been allowed to vote. However, I think there are strong arguments, especially democratic ones, for Britain leaving the EU. The author did not explore these reasons here and I have not read any coverage in the Times giving such an analysis. Instead, the author seems to portray Brexit supporters as ignorant (both for their reasons in supporting Brexit and for their belief that a no deal Brexit will not prove catastrophic to the UK). Again, there are credible differing opinions as to what the financial impact of leaving the EU will be on Britain. This was not mentioned in this particular article but, as is evidenced in the comments, there is a tendency to equate the election of Donald Trump with Britain’s vote to leave the EU. I understand that there are global economic conditions which similarly affect the US and the EU but I think little is gained in understanding the issue by oversimplifying Brexit as the equivalent of Donald Trump’s election. I am a devoted reader of the NY Times and I hope for more balanced journalism in the future which enlightens readers by exploring all possible explanations for world events.
11
@Laurel Bonnyman . You are correct. The standard retort from liberals is it's racism. Period.
3
@Laurel Bonnyman
I live in the UK now and have for almost 20 years.
"there are credible differing opinions as to what the financial impact of leaving the EU will be on Britain."
The financial impact depends on what kind of brexit. Staying in the single market and customs union would cause the least financial damage. The catastrophe *will* come about in the event of no deal.
There are no *credible* opinions otherwise.
People voted leave for many reasons, including the democratic argument you mention. I respect that argument even if I don't agree with it, but those who make it must also accept the economic consequences of leaving.
The only equivalence I would make between the election of Donald Trump and the vote for brexit is that both are acts of national self-harm.
And I am not impressed with most of the politicians on either side of the pond.
5
this title is very misleading. as mentioned in the article, a plurality "wouldn't know what to do" or "would want a second referendum." that hardly suggests that they don't mind.
3
If the Putin/MBS high5s are not enough evidence of what is at stake here for you, then what is? Who will you look to? Poland? Hungary? Greece? Italy?
Trump?
1
I’m not quite why the headlines states “voters are unconcerned” when the article explicitly states that among those polled more want a second referendum than a no-deal scenario; sounds like concern to me.
4
"In polls taken last week by YouGov/Best for Britain, 31 percent of respondents said they would prefer to leave the European Union without a deal if Mrs. May’s withdrawal agreement is voted down on Tuesday — compared to 36 percent who would choose a second referendum and 16 percent who didn’t know what to do."
This is misleading, as are the headline and entire tone of the article.
Just days ago, another YouGov poll showed that 53% of Britons favoured a second referendum, compared with 47% against. Clearly, the prevailing feeling is that *the entire thing* needs to be reconsidered.
This was irresponsible reporting and/or editing.
5
Brexit is what they voted for, Brexit is what they want. They don't believe Brexit will lead to economic & political disaster. Fine. Great. Super. Fabulous. Vaya con Dios
5
Mr. Putin laughs hysterically at the mayhem he's caused by driving wedges between nations of NATO and/or the Western Alliance.
5
@ Brexetiers: The affluent citizens are doing too well. They are sawing through the branch on which they sitting. I've never seen such a political stupidity. 1.5 Billion Chinese and a hardly reliable Trump in front of their door, 50 Million Britons inside. The Britons without the EU will be a thankful economical prey in every thinkable future event. One may like it or not, but the glory days of the British Empire are finally gone. Sad.
4
Radek from Portland: You had me with Brexit's chief cause is the "failure of centrist and liberal parties to even address the pressures from mass immigration: reduced wages, loss of social cohesion, cultural conflict, environmental damage ..."
then you lost me by blaming Merkel.
Merkel's the best leader in free world.
She acted out our statue of liberty.
But that plaque was written back when we had tons of space and not 8 billion people clinging to a planet whose natural systems have been raped and plundered.
Merkel's position was the same as the Times' editors. It's our elite's choice. It's one we would prefer if it were possible without damaging our unique sub cultures.
Which is has been doing in France, England, Germany, Hungary, Italy and America.
Causing a rightwing backlash, Trump and bad governments in Hungary, Italy, Brazil...
I spent six months in Britain in 2014, traveling around in my camper, looking and listening.
What I heard convinced me Brexit would pass.
I couldn't find the old English world of Terry Thomas, the Goons, 1968 in London or Heathrow. Drastic change.
& Where Becket bought it, a Bobbie told me Blair had presided over the cultural death of England by encouraging unlimited immigration.
"They told us joining EU would bring 500,000 Polish butchers. We got 5.000,000."
I ran into more Pakistanis, Indians & Poles than English, many in tourism who didn't know or care about where they were or what happened before they got there.
2
"A No-Deal Brexit? Leaders Are Alarmed; Voters, Not So Much"
//
So the Brexiteer says to the Remoaner at the 10th floor while falling from the roof of the 40 story building "All's well so far, what you moaning about?!"
1
We have been lied to so many times, says the man. Maybe he should consider who is really doing the lying.
2
“I don’t know the ins and outs of government, but if the politicians can’t decide what to do, we should go without a deal”
I don’t know much about how a Constitutional Monarchy functions, but I think I have a decent grasp on what V.I. Lenin meant when he coined the phrase, ‘useful idiot’.
The European Union might be less than ideal, but if the issue is a bunch of Germans telling the populace what to do for no justifiable reason, I’d probably direct my disdain towards the Windsors.
Undoing 45 years of EU membership is akin to removing the egg from a baked cake. Brexit supporters may soon realize that the road to independence was indeed a cul de sac.
11
Translating Mr. Smith's remarks into Valley-Girl Speak you get "whatever." What a sorry end for the boomer "me generation." What a pathetic epitaph for Anglo/American democracy. With scarcely a thought for generations yet to come, the Smith & Ridley's of the world are content to consign them to penury because they got burned by Y2K and now have "trust issues." Like his Reagan-loving counterparts in the U.S., Mr. Smith is only now finding out in his dotage that when Thatcher talked about social "losers" she meant people like him.
George Kennan's 1932 remark is apt today - and this time there isn't an FDR on the horizon:
"There it (the United States) lies now in all its ignorance and all its sordidness. A society conceived in selfishness and dedicated to the proposition that one man’s suffering is no other man’s business, incapable of regulating its own public life, waiting stupidly for the advent of catastrophe."
6
Cameron's decision to put the subject of leaving or remaining in the EU up to a popular referendum will rightly go down in history as the single most foolish decision of any PM going back at least 50 years. All he had to gain was a token gesture of support for the EU, and he risked losing all the benefits being a member of the EU confers. If there is a no-deal Brexit, lots of Britons (many of whom voted to remain, mind you) will find their lives to be more difficult in a myriad of ways. Will they survive? Absolutely. The question is whether or not they will thrive, and if the actions of the British government are a reliable indicator, I'm doubtful.
5
Yes and Y2K was supposedly going to bring the world crashing to a halt. The brits will survive one way or another. They have a talent for resiliency. They never got rid of the pound sterling so I suspect they never wanted to be THAT linked with Europe. I think Merkle and her million persons Syrian refuge policy was the final straw.
3
Some in that bar don't even bother to inform themselves sufficiently in order to vote wisely, or at all. So why should anyone bother with their opinion on what Brexit will bring to the country?
2
So here we are. It’s not like those in the U.K. who voted to leave the European Union were making that decision based on facts. Why should it surprise anyone now that they distrust those telling them what Brexit means without a negotiated exit deal.
The big difference now is that both sides are warning the public so one would expect that should get through. Although no one knows the exact extent of the repercussions, it would be chaotic and definitely not “good” for the UK to leave without a deal.
Lying for political gain is something that must be exposed. However, I find it very difficult for the public to get accurate information in an age when millions get their news from Murdoch-owned enterprises.
4
H. L. Mencken: “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
10
"Battered by three years of political opportunism and partisan debate, many voters have less and less trust in the country’s institutions."
Win for Putin, Rupert Murdoch, and their allies.
11
Does this mean those wonderful wool caps from The UK will come down in price? I have to know as my present cap is beginning to smell like an old man.
@English Racer
Well, you won't be able to buy a new one.
Without EU citizens nobody will shave the British sheep. Without shaved sheep, there will be no wool. Without wool; well I'm sure you'll figure out the rest of the story.
--
How about some lovely German wool cap?
I'm sure we've some suitable within our offerings :-)
4
@Jayne. I think the sheep were shorn before GB had a flood of EU immigrants. I'm sure they'll figure it out.
2
"In polls taken last week by YouGov/Best for Britain, 31 percent of respondents said they would prefer to leave the European Union without a deal if Mrs. May’s withdrawal agreement is voted down on Tuesday — compared to 36 percent who would choose a second referendum and 16 percent who didn’t know what to do."
This is misleading, as are the headline and entire tone of the article.
Just days ago, another YouGov poll showed that 53% of Britons favoured a second referendum, compared with 47% against. Clearly, the prevailing feeling is that *the entire thing* needs to be reconsidered.
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@Sixofone - YouGov has been polling almost continuously since the vote and the results have hardly budged. They basically drift within a few percent, well within the margin of error of the poll itself.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/03/29/where-britain-stands-brexit-one-year-out
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4ovmboa1iw/Internal_190108_Brexit_web.pdf
Brexit, and the lack of trust in the British political system it has engendered, is yet another part of Putin's strategy to weaken Western liberal democracies. Just a reminder: Russia used social media to whip up anti-Brexit fervor, and the main funder of leave.eu has business ties to Russia.
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@MRW: you know, crazy anti-Russian paranoia was not cool (or real) when the RIGHT WING was doing it -- McCarthyism and later, Reagan and his "bear in the woods" -- and it is no better when it is the left in their new crazy "anti Putin" hysteria.
Putin did not make millions of voters elect Trump or pass Brexit.
"It was not that the men and women drinking there hadn’t heard the warnings about a no-deal exit — it was that they did not believe them."
How many self-inflicted wounds is it going to take for people to realize that, sometimes, experts are experts because they know what they're talking about?
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There is an island mentality in both Britain and the U.S., and the islanders are going to suffer the consequences.
7
@Zach The problem is the "sometimes." The "experts" have their own litany of self-inflicted wounds. Given how this has been managed so far, I'm not sure why all people would assume the politicians know what they are talking about.
I'm by no means justifying the stupidity shown in this matter, but I don't think it is all on one side. And I think it is kind of ridiculous to blame the acknowledged non-experts for questioning self-proclaimed experts who keep doing incompetent things. The latter, having assumed a leadership role and ostensibly having more education and knowledge, should be held to a much higher standard. And the fact that they are vastly out-numbered by non-experts, by definition, needs to enter their calculus.
The "expert class" was supposed to have a handle on these things, and the people have sensed that they don't. Almost all people naturally sense inconsistency (something not quite adding up or someone being insincere) as a survival instinct, but they tend to ascribe it to the wrong causes and it can get ugly.
This is not to say that there are not real experts who should be followed. There absolutely are, although I don't think many of them are actually running anything. But we've promoted way too many people as experts when they were nothing of the kind, and now self-proclaimed expertise holds little authority. We created conditions in which people sensed the threat, but they can't identify it and react to it. So they start acting "illogically."
1
Based on many of the comments, most would have thought it unwise for the American colonies to break away from Britain during the American Revolution. Change always brings short term discomfort. That does not mean the ultimate result isn’t worth while.Its not my decision to make, but I stand by the British people in whatever path they choose.
9
@John: EXACTLY!
I have some British ancestry on my grandfather's side, and though not enough to have dual citizenship (I think)….I am very proud of that ancestry and NEVER MORE than when the British people REJECTED being ruled over by Brussels and took control of their own fate!
They will do just fine, and the US will standby our British allies & friends all the way!
2
Apologists for the rather autocratic and unaccountable EU keep rolling out Project Fear to intimidate voters into their view of leaving. That was trotted out by Cameron and Osborne in 2016 and said that the deepest depression would emerge on day 1 from a No vote. Oddly enough the UK performed stronger after the EU Leave vote, even stronger than the EU and virtually every country in the EU. Now that exit day looms and the no deal situation becomes possible, the same tired arguments are rolled out again to force what would be the biggest betrayal of British democracy ever. At the referendum, people knew what they were voted for and the government made sure by delivering to every household in the country an 11 page document spelling out Project Fear. People rejected that and voted to leave, for many reasons. The elites want to keep rerunning referendums, originally sold a a vote in a generation, until such time as the EU and its acolytes get the right and answer and the people learn their lesson. No one believes the politicians and bureaucrats and see failure to carry out their wishes as a betrayal of voters and the democratic process.
9
@Niall Firinne "At the referendum, people knew what they were voted for"
Fascinating argument to make, since the Leave campaign came out literally the day after the referendum and admitted their numbers about how much money the UK sent to the EU were inflated.
7
If I remember correctly, a majority of Brits voted for Brexit because they thought it was a joke, that the UK wouldn't *really* leave the EU. Seems like some attitudes towards no-deal Brexit is consistent with that.
It also occurs to me that the UK leaving the EU, is somewhat similar to the U.S. leaving NATO -- both weakens the west politically, economically, socially, and militarily. Putin and his trolls must be thrilled.
9
@Doris O - I have friends in the UK who voted both ways. My Brexit friends most certainly did not think it a joke and are more committed than ever to leaving.
Support for a no-deal Brexit resembles the unwavering support of Trump's "base". Only the seering effects of pure catastrophy will change their hearts and minds.
8
@FredinOhio. Exactly. While under normal situations I would not wish people harm, a no deal Brexit will in fact cause plenty of harm, and it is my sincerest wish that the people who voted for Brexit, like the ones in this article, lose everything and suffer greatly for their foolishness and I hope they watch their children and grandchildren suffering even more. This is the only way people will learn; severe consequences must be imposed. I feel exactly the same toward the Trump voters, even though me and mine might suffer with them. & I will save my charity for people of character and good judgment, and let the vicious fools reap what they sow.
4
In know other scenario besides open borders in Europe would liberals even think to oppose a democratic voting result. It’s more of the “we know what’s best for you.” The British people decided the matter at the ballot box. Case closed.
8
@Conservative Democrat
A second referendum has cross-party support in Parliament, including Conservatives. Nothing to do with "liberals" which is a term used for American politicians.
2
@Conservative Democrat actually, polls are showing that the British people would like a do-over. Doesn't help that the Leave campaign basically admitted their numbers were made up the day after the election.
Turns out, voting to walk your country off a cliff is the sort of thing that people WANT to have a chance to re-think. Unfortunately, their leaders won't let them - not yet, anyway. Talk about "we know what's best for you" - and at the same time, not having a clue.
5
I’m sure a majority of Americans would like a do-over for our unfortunate choice in 2016.
2
hope it all ends well and the new beginning starts well too. But I don't get it? The psychosis of island mentality/mime maybe?
2
And there he sits, quiet, smug, confident in his wealth and the unchallenged power within his Russian potentate, waiting for all of us to demolish ourselves with our own love of “freedom”
4
@Dave W: yes, it's just all about PUTIN all the time?
Come on! He is not that powerful nor important.
The left is making him into a kind of Hitler figure, but that's a gross exaggeration.
I remember when it was RIGHT WINGERS who were hysterical about "Russians" and "the commies". Now it is liberals!
"31 percent of respondents said they would prefer to leave the European Union without a deal if Mrs. May’s withdrawal agreement is voted down on Tuesday — compared to 36 percent who would choose a second referendum and 16 percent who didn’t know what to do"
Shouldn't the headline be "A No-Deal Brexit? Leaders are Alarmed, and Voters Want a Second Referendum". The poll is split, with the second referendum edging out no-deal.
The situation here can only be described as an utter and monumental mess. And May in her obduracy that it is her way or none, will allow the ship to go right over the falls.
5
I've always found it hard to believe that all the Europeans who do business with the population of the UK, or the Brits who do business with the Europeans are just going to fold-up shop. The urge to trade, the lure of profit is just too strong.
Instead I imagine that after some days, weeks, maybe months of confusion everything will settle down; it'll be "business as usual".
It's called "muddling through". The Brits are famous for it.
8
@laurence Ahmen Laurence! I worked for close to two decades with Brit and other EU companies via their trade association, much of it involving issues before the EU. There are scores of such associations for various trade and economic sectors, chiefly located in Brussels, products of the post WWII efforts to rebuild and unify Europe. They helped form the EU. They aren't going anywhere. The Brits do see themselves as deeply connected to Europe. Their military cemeteries on the continent, if nothing else, assures that. As do their membership in European trade and professional associations, attendance at schools there, travels, friends, family etc. But many refuse to be subjects to the dictates of the EU Parliament and its bureaucracy, especially when those edicts obnoxiously intrude on their way of life and muck up already agreed to standards of European trade associations by fiddling with them while enacting them into EU wide standards. On this last point, Nigel Farger was spot on when he told them in assembly, "You people have never held a proper job in your entire lives." I experienced that directly when a trade association agreed upon environmental product standard was held up for years as the types Farger chastised fiddled with it. The individual countries would have had it on their books within a year.
Great Britain is and will remain a member of Europe and its economy is not going to fall off a cliff with or without a clean BREXIT break.
1
@jim, The "shove it down my throat brigade" misses its target by the width of the Channel : all EU laws were voted by British governments! The UK has a veto and has used it copiously to its own advantage, it drafted the laws and regulations and only accepts those to its advantage. The latest proof being the EU court judgement on Article 50 : the UK gets to do what it wants because it wrote the clause!
But here the UK all alone on the wrong side of the channel will prevail over 27 EU countries who will decide the terms of trade without the UK's input. Good luck to the UK is all I can say.
If it weren't so tragic, you both would make me laugh. You're living a tabloid fantasy, and it's sad, really.
I'd like to highlight to those who speak of nationalism that we have no MPs from nationalistic parties in our parliament (par the SNP in Scotland). From the outside it may seem like the UK is on similar trajectory to the US but this really is not the case. The country is simply instinctively suspicious of taking rules from a opaque and semi-democratic (at best) bureaucracy. The UKs relationship with the rest of Europe in the last 100 years isn't also cause for an unlimited amount of trust from the UKs part as well. People don't simply forget about relatively recent bouts of history (for good or bad).
The real solution to the European (and not just in the UK) situation at present is to create a fully transparent and more democratic EU that is less austerity driven and more investment-lead especially when countries like Germany immensely profit from the eurozone and then hold national surplus without reinvestment.
Unfortunately I can't reform happening however as the EU doesn't ever budge in it's decision making and way of doing things; proving widely useless on the international stage and uncompromising internally (as Brexit negotiations, the Greek situation and even US defense requirements issue has shown).
5
@Lord Byron Did the UK not have representation in Brussels and participate in the decision-making? Things did not always go your way? Well, now you'll have your ice cream back again and I hope you enjoy it.
4
@Penn Towers
Not only did the UK have input but it also has a veto. The UK has only ever accepted EU laws to its own advantage; every single law passed has been voted by UK governments. "Blame the EU" is childish tabloid drivel.
@Penn Towers. I don't think I questioned whether the UK had representation or not; I'm questioning the entire democratic setup of the EU as a governing body. It is without doubt one the main reason why Europe is in crisis at the moment. The answer to the European question at the moment clearly isn't more Europe. You can't just hope it's all going to come out in the wash eventually (it's almost a communistic approach to problems). The fundamental precipice of a joint labor market from Sweden to Albania was never going to work in the long term and these are the repercussions. The EU needs to realise if it doesn't reform itself soon and abandon mass austerity in favor of democracy i.e. listening to peoples grievances instead of those of German financiers, it's not going to end well.
Remain/leave tribalism also doesn't get us anywhere; it just prevents us all from correcting the real problem of why this is all happening in the first place (an issue clearly not unique to the UK; just look at the govs Hungary, Poland and the newly installed crypto-fascists in Italy to name a few examples).
I think taking a look at Yanis Varoufakis' account of his time as the Greek finance minister will give you a far better insight into EU mechanics and decision making than anything I can throw your way. In essence it highlights the EU's democratic deficit behind closed doors. It's creepy to say the least.
1
It would be funny if it weren't so sad.
2
The silver lining on the UK committing this national suicide might be that it happens soon enough that the small fraction of GOP diehards that are still open to new information and changing their minds, might see the "nasty consequences" of these nationalist, populist political retreats in time to influence the US's 2020 election.
But as a former resident of England, I am still depressed for what is likely to come. There are no good options anymore IMO, only a series of "less bad" ones :(
6
Remember when the UK Conservatives and US Republicans were the parties of the "grown ups"?
4
@Duncan
No, but I do remember when they continually told us that. I didn't believe it then, either.
4
Perhaps government has been too effective in the past decades, such that people assume there must be someone at the helm that will mitigate the irresponsible decisions they make at the ballot box.
Sadly, that doesn't seem to be working out on either side of the pond.
2
"A No-Deal Brexit? Leaders Are Alarmed; Voters, Not So Much"
That's because voters don't understand the enormous adverse consequences of a no-deal Brexit. It is for precisely this reason (the inherent complexity associated with a decision to leave the EU) that the issue was wholly inappropriate for a binary referendum. The Conservatives have put the country into a tailspin. Ironically, the best way out of this is for there now to be a second referendum to cancel out the first, not least because of the provable lies used by the Leave campaign which people now realize was a fraud.
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@Andrew
We hear that a lot, we voters. We don't understand. The unaccountable unelected European Commission understands. How foolish we have been to distrust them.
3
U.K. and U.S. voters narrowly embraced previously-unthinkable positions coincidentally suited to Putin's interests. One interpretation is that Putin's manipulations of democracies worked. A broader interpretation is that along with Brazilians, Indians, Philippinos, and others, Brits and Americans were already trending towards Putin-like positions anyway. Another term for those positions would be nationalistic oligarchy. If so, perhaps we are living in an age of resurgent nationalism, oligarchy, and anti-democracy predicated on decades of increasing wealth disparity. May the next iteration of democracy be structured to prevent these disparities.
20
The fatal flaw of democracy is confirmation bias, the tendency of people to believe what they want to believe and filter out data that doesn't support that belief. This makes it virtually impossible to expect the "Average Joe" to make truly objective voting decisions that may be in their long term interests but are nevertheless painful in the short term.
Representative democracy as we have in the US and UK is supposed to mitigate confirmation bias by electing politicians of integrity and good will to make the tough calls that would fail in referendum. In other words, they are supposed to save us from ourselves. So, it should not be surprising when Congress or Parliament occasionally makes decisions that go against the popular mood - that's what they are supposed to do.
Unfortunately, in the real world, politicians have no interest in good-faith governing, only in advancing their own corrupt careers and interests. Thus, David Cameron cynically called a Brexit vote to secure his own position, only to have it blow up in his - and his country's - face. That vote never should have happened.
So, combining an electorate with minimal and declining critical thinking skills with a dishonest and self-serving government, how can you expect any good to come of it? Benign dictatorship doesn't look so bad, except for finding the "benign" part of it.
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@Luomaike
And except for the benign dictator who also eschews facts and data in favor of personally knowing more than anyone.
9
@Luomaike We have had plenty of experience with "benign dictators." They were/are called kings. And, yes, they did look bad -- very, very bad in some cases.
The saving grace of democracies is that they allow for course corrections in relatively short periods in historical terms (a handful of years). It's just human nature that many members of new generations have to relearn lessons hard won by prior ones. My own parents lived though WWII, and thus were very sober and careful about nationalism etc. As I'm sure were the parents/grandparents of people interviewed in this article. But the current US & UK residents? Not so much. They (we) are going to have to learn the hard way I fear, just like our ancestors.
5
@Luomaike
We don't need to protect our nation from "Average Joes". We ARE a nation of "Average Joes". Just because a few of us have found ourselves on the lucky side of the shrinking middle class doesn't mean we have to treat "Average Joes" like they're a bunch of ignoramuses who couldn't possibly understand the direction in which this country has been heading in recent decades. They see - and feel - the results of it every day. They know that they grew up with a blue-collar father who was able to provide his family with a middle-class lifestyle. They also know that they're now blue-collar workers struggling just to provide their families with the basic necessities of life...all the while having to endure the sneers of others telling them to "just go get a college degree". It's easy for us to pass judgment on them from our high-rise condos and suburban McMansions, isn't it?
6
"Britons may find it more difficult to envision collapse, Mr. Ford said, having escaped Nazi occupation in World War II and the kind of drastic change that swept through post-Communist Eastern Europe"
Past escapes from the traumas of the Continent also motivate Brexit. Britain has done better, much better, than the collective Continent.
At this very moment, Germany and France and even Spain are doing well, living in freedom, as are the smaller countries such as Scandinavia. That is the exception, not the rule.
France had the two Napoleons and five Republics, and an Occupation by Hitler. Germany had fragments united under the mildly insane Kaiser who dumped the world into WW1, followed by Hitler who dumped the world into WW2 and did the Holocaust at the same time. Spain had a series of civil wars, and its peace was that of an autocratic Franco too like Hitler. Italy has never had a consistent freedom, and its "strong" times were things like Mussolini.
It is no wonder that Britons do not wish to trust their future, and the future of their descendants on for centuries, to the vagaries of that past pattern.
The difficulties will be passing, if they come at all. The greater dangers will lurk, looking over the shoulders of grandchildren and great grandchildren, and their descendants.
Short term thinking and tactical positioning just don't see everything that is most important.
4
@Mark Thomason- aren’t the countries you named as “doing well” France, Germany and Spain, part of the EU?! Isn’t this one strong reason they are doing well?
11
@Mark Thomason, you conveniently ignore that Britain, after no longer being able to invade and plunder other countries, pretty much failed on its own, with a run-down mismanaged economy, becoming globally known as the "Sick man of Europe" until allowed under what today is the EU. This pretty much rescued Britain from becoming a failed state.
Germany does well because it has strength, skills and hard work ethics, making it into the economic powerhouse that it is today, and already has been before the EU was a thing. This is a stark contrast to Britain when being on its own, and the only reason many British brands like Jaguar-Landrover or Bentley flourished is because they are under non-British control or have been sold to foreign entities. After all, British Management is world-renowned for its incompetence for a reason.
I guess Britain has to learn the hard way that not every country has such fond memories of "the Empire" and British rule, that British exceptionalism is just a pipe dream, and that being alone in the modern world where everything is connected and left with a mostly poorly educated British workforce with the lowest productivity in the Western world isn't such a good idea.
15
@Suzanne - France, Germany, Spain ... They are just a few among the 27 EU countries. Many of the others are struggling much more, with current events and with their pasts.
I'm American but live mostly in France now. The EU has resulted in many positive developments. But it's by no means a perfect system and seems to be moving in a direction that is a concern to many of the "little people", people like my local baker, whose business doesn't benefit from the "expanded" market. Many people in my village believe that the EU leadership is basically fulfilling the interests of Big Business more and more... and they are growing concerned.
6
The most interesting thing I have learned about fools is that they sincerely believe they are the smart ones despite lack of relevant experience or education.
20
@Tom Kocis, Also known as the Denning /Krueger effect.
Your point is scientifically provable.
2
Not surprised by the lack of their public's interest, because they're just like us. As long as the toilets flush, grocery shelves are stocked, the traffic lights work, and the internet is functioning, most people are blissfully unaware of the calamities roiling around the corner. It takes a personal hit, like a job loss, illness with no treatment/insurance available, or a natural disaster to wake people out of their solipsistic stupor.
22
@Andy: OR maybe those people have lousy worthless Obamacare -- that the left keeps claiming is "so great!" -- where any illness means a $9000 deductible before they get a penny of insurance coverage!!!
Anyways what does that have to do with Brexit?
I have several friends in the UK, who happen to have voted on both sides of the issue. Naturaly, my Remain friends hope for another referendum because they want a second chance. My Brexit friends aren't concerned about a No-deal exit, like the people in this article. They always assumed there would be some disruptions but that things would get sorted out in the end.
Although I don't hold strong views about staying or leaving, I'm inclined to agree that a No-Deal exit will probably not be the catastrophe many politicians predict. The reason is that they are not credible voices in issuing the warning because they are so invested in the process and their support bases. I would expect them to exxagerate.
The British people are very enterprising and the new situation will probably give rise to creative entrepreneurs, eager to take advantage of changes in markets. The big, established London based businesses may suffer at the start. But there's too much money at stake to blow it. The business people won't allow the politicians to mess it up for them. They'll take control of their own destinies.
If No-Deal happens I predict a lot of very scared politicians, worried about losing their relevancy.
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@J Jencks
"I'm inclined to agree that a No-Deal exit will probably not be the catastrophe many politicians predict"
If you don't want to believe the government take a look at what business has been saying. No deal IS and will be a catastrophe.
Just one example: look at how the supply chains work for the car manufacturers.
@Joan - Things will no doubt change. And there will be difficulties. Probably some people will lose money and certainly manufacturers will have to reorganize, which they naturally don't want to do.
But even though the government has decided not to plan ahead, private businesses have been planning ahead since the day after the vote.
Neither you, unless you are psychic, nor I KNOW whether it will be a catastrophe. I'm just basing my opinion on the information available to me and my own evaluation. The conclusion I've come to is that it will be difficult in some cases. There will be adjustments. It will take 2-3 years before all the kinks are worked out. 20 years from now people will wonder what the big worry was.
We'll see.
1
@J Jencks
What do your no-deal Brexit friends have to say about the Irish border?
Not an issue? Just keep it open? Who cares?
Then wait for the waves of migrants coming into the UK through NI and the flourishing criminality of a smuggler's heaven for dodgy goods going into the EU. Until someone then has to close the border and the violence starts in earnest.
Sorry, but your no-deal Brexit friends are not just delusional, but by letting the chips fall where they may, they are deliberately vandalizing the GFA. They will have blood on their hands.
It’s like Peter and the wolf, reversed. The politicians cried wolf about the EU so long that now many people believe them. Now the politicians want to reverse course but too many refuse to stop believing the EU is the wolf.
4
Mind you, pro-Brexit members of the public aren’t suggesting that their beliefs that whatever pain the UK endures following a no-deal Brexit is worthwhile, rather, they simply believe, based on no evidence or argument, that politicians, economists, and business leaders are simply wrong.
I wish the UK good luck on a policy built in wishful thinking, but if it turns out that pro-Brexit members of the public are wrong, I do hope The Times follows up with these same people.
13
I surely hope for a hard crash-out Brexit. Leavers will get the fruit of their labors, and the EU will be free of the perpetual whiners and back-biters. If Brits today have swallowed the libertarian Utopian Freedom Gospel to the point that they think anything short of the life of a spoiled child is unfair, they are welcome the snotty, bloody reality of a dog-eat-dog world. Delegating decisions to subject matter experts under elected officials is not tyranny, it is using society's smarts. Rule-free capitalism does not mean enlightened ubermensch will take care of the poor, it means a return to the neo-feudalism of today, with all the gold behind castle walls and private armies.
I mean, gated communities and private security, sorry. Oh, such as those who have -- without punishment -- gunned down the innocent homeless to improve the view in many recent times and places.
But I digress. Hard Brexit will mean the independence of Scotland, leaving a lone, friendless little England to celebrate the final waning of its empire. Good riddance to them, laddies.
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@William Wallace - there is some irony here in that you celebrate the potential independence of Scotland while bemoaning the attempted independence of the UK. It's hard not to see a Scottish vote to leave the UK as at least analogous to the same self-harming impulse as Brexit, similarly fuelled by naivety, overblown nationalism and a rose-tinted reading of history.
13
@William Wallace: what Vip said -- why is Scottish independence so great, but BRITISH independence wrong?
Sorry, but THE PEOPLE reject your claim they are "too stoopid" to decide their own futures!
Same error the American left has made!
Guess you still don't get it. The punishment will continue until you agree to LISTEN TO US (the masses).
Oh and BTW: America is very delighted to trade with the UK, or even "just England". We LOVE the British!
1
Lots of people mentioning Britain's 'old empire and arrogance' etc. Tiresome nonsense...move on please. Britain has decided by referendum to leave the EU. Period. Keep in mind that a referendum was called because the EU would not listen to the real concerns of the British people such that the UK government had no choice but to call a peoples vote. The referendum was a democratic vote (agreed in advance by the full UK parliament) and the result ratified into law by the full UK parliament. Irrespective of the arguments going back and forth it was the democratic decision of the British people to leave the EU and this should be delivered one way or another. I for one didn't vote to leave the EU because Britain had an 'old empire' nor do I consider myself to be arrogant (I appreciate some may disagree but that is their right). I voted to leave the EU because I believe that the EU is flawed, expensive, bureaucratic and 'management by committee gone mad' and the United Kingdom can do better. I'm an optimist and come what may I believe the UK has a better future outside of the EU.
22
@Redcoat
One big reason the EU turned 'committee mad' (in so far as it did), was the UK sabotaging EU decision making and pressing for premature enlargement so as to weaken the center. There's a silver lining to Brexit, and it is seeing the back of redcoats.
20
@Redcoat - you say the "referendum was called because the EU would not listen to the real concerns of the British people such that the UK government had no choice but to call a peoples vote" but this is not at all true. The referendum was called entirely voluntarily by David Cameron as a tactical move to silence once and for all the Euro-sceptic wing of his party, which obviously spectacularly backfired.
The Conservatives did not have to put it in its election manifesto as prior to the referendum, the vast majority of British citizens did not really care about the EU - it was only a passionate cause amongst a minority of Tory MPs and UKIP voters.
Also, I would take the EU's version of imperfect governance over our own current dysfunctional laughing stock!
33
@Redcoat ' flawed, expensive, bureaucratic and 'management by committee gone mad ' perfectly describes the Conservative government of Theresa May and its Brexiteers. The referendum was flawed, the Leave campaign lied, and is now under investigation for campaign fraud. Brexit is a catastrophe.
6
It seems British citizens are as uninformed as Americans when it comes to how their government is run. Putin must be laughing up his sleeve.
43
I have heard it oft mentioned that the EU is punishing the UK. It's patently false of course, yet I sense it emanates from those who are hugely ill informed about how the exit process works or they are hugely disingenuous. Perhaps an unhealthy blending of both is the reality.
Also the notion that democracy is somehow a one off event is nonsensical. The British population have been sold a pup by politicians who suggested they support leave. After over 40 years of a rancid media in the UK spouting its vitriol and lies about the EU, it is no wonder the people were persuaded to vote against their better interests.
It is plain from reading some of the comments on this article that the Anglo-sphere is rife with the same old delusions of grandeur, how tediously predictable.
89
Through no fault of its own, Ireland will more than likely suffer enormously from a no deal Brexit. The majority of imports and exports use Britain as a land bridge to and from Europe. The country is only just beginning to recover from the crash of 2008, having been forced to bail out banks in Ireland, Germany, France etc., and now it is faced with, what can only be described as, the utterly chaotic Brexit farce.
10
This is all too reminiscent of those who recklessly voted in Donald Trump. “I’m unhappy, so why not? Let’s give it a try” Chickens are coming home to roost in both nations.
41
The chickens are roosting:
-Lowest unemployment rate in a half century
-Strongest economic growth since before Obama
-Lower taxes for almost all (except some rich people in NY, California and Massachusetts)
-Judges who believe in enforcing the law as written
-Reversal of a runaway federal regulatory burden
3
@Philo
Racism at highest rate in years.
President under investigation for possible treason.
Longest government shutdown in history.
Corrupt Trump officials dropping like flies.
Presidential support for every dictator in the world.
Yep, it just doesn't get any better than this.
7
Only mad dogs and Englishmen want a no-deal Brexit, but it looks like they just might get it in the almost certain absence of any positive agreement on any other alternative.
Regardless of the economic impact in both the UK and EU, that still leaves the main sticking point of the border with Ireland which risks becoming either a smuggler's criminal haven for pouring contraband into the EU if it is left open, or becoming a battlefield once again with dead bodies in the streets if it is closed.
What strikes me most from the genuine rage and passion in England for Brexit is that otherwise reasonable Englishmen and women simply don't care about those disastrous consequences.
Fintan O'Toole has a theory that Brexit is displacement activity for the frustrations of England (minus London) at not being heard in Westminster and taking it out on the EU instead. Heck, at this stage nothing else seems to make sense, so maybe he has a point and he's got survey data to back it up. An England-only Parliament, anyone?
7
Any backsliding on Brexit will be a profound betrayal of British democracy and amounts to total surrender to EU and it’s obvious plan to punish Britain and her electorate. Theresa May will go down in history as the wrong prime minister at the wrong time. The Appeaser of this millennium.
22
@Dactta Democracy allows for iteration. People are allowed to change course when the consequences of a decision become clearer. The original referendum was a craven political play by Cameroon to save himself and the consequences were never thought out which is eminently clear now as what "leaving the EU" means was never agreed upon.
There are clearly a lot of people in the UK with legitimate grievances about how the country is run and they were given an opportunity to slay what they saw as a sacred cow of the elite. With the nature of how moneyed interests work the blow back, should Brexit proceed, will hit those people with grievances the hardest. There's nothing undemocratic but giving people another chance to evaluated before stepping into the unknown.
17
@Dactta
The EU has in fact been remarkably agreeable to UK demands so far. As it happens, a UK-wide backstop is a real headache compared to a NI-only one. So any talk of the EU trying to punish the UK is hogwash.
That may change if the UK truly decides to play hardball however, say by keeping the Irish border open for smuggling or restricting EU airliners' access over UK airspace, or withholding the financial settlement. In that case, sorry, but all of the numbers are massively in the EU's favor. And all of the emergency deals struck to accommodate a WTO-Brexit will demonstrate that. Please read Sir Ivan Rogers.
13
Thank you for your comment from Bangkok on the best way forward for the UK.
8
The people didn't vote for a deal.
They voted to LEAVE.
They should be given what they asked for. Ignorance is not an excuse. And I feel no sympathy for them.
22
In reality the demise of the European Union will be no more traumatic than the demise of the Soviet Union — and for the same reasons.
1
However the UK leaves the EU, and however it fares, this won't be the last act in the drama known as the European Union... just the first. Stay tuned for the collapse of Italian banks, further rejection of Macron's reforms in France, growing illiberalism in Eastern Europe, increasing right-wing party success in Germany and the Scandinavian member states (not to mention the European Parliamentary elections this Spring), growing migration pressure, persistently high youth unemployment, and yawning inequality.
The entire European Union, not just the UK, will eventually have to re-invent itself.
6
@Jack Lord
You are correct in your list of issues (and there are more). Thing is, the EU is actually quite adept at reinventing itself. And it will be easier with the UK out of the way. The EU, for all its many minor faults, is a massively net positive for its citizens, neighbours and allies.
25
With many of Theresa May’s own lawmakers expected to join opposition parties to vote against her deal, it is widely expected to be defeated.
Michael Gove, one of the Brexit cheerleaders in 2016 said that rejecting May's deal would lead to a no-deal Brexit with short term economic damage "or worse, no Brexit at all". He fears if Torries don't vote for her deal then they risk playing into the hands of those who do not want Brexit to go ahead.”
Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn condemned the deal and reiterated his call for a general election if it is voted down by Parliament. He also promised Labour would call a no-confidence vote in the government "soon".
The problem is that in new election he is not much of an option for Remainers. An opportunist and a Eurosceptic, he rejects a second referendum, despite calls with the party.
After flip-flopping he now supports Britain’s membership in the European single market. His agenda with the EU isn’t much different from May’s.
4
@J. von Hettlingen
Labour will lose the no-confidence motion, of that I'm sure. The government won't vote against itself and the utterly unpleasant DUP have signalled their intention to prop up the minority Conservatives.
This will result in one of three outcomes as far as I can see:
1 - The children in parliament stamp their feet and just leave with no deal, causing huge damage to industries which are dependant on frictionless EU trade (mine included). This would inflict enormous harm to the economy and to peoples' lives, not least the large number of EU citizens who have chosen to make their home here and, as far as I and a large majority of British people are concerned, are very welcome and an important part of our multi-cultural society.
2 - Brexit is cancelled. For some reason, this appears to be off the table and I can't explain why. 'The will of the people several years ago by a majority of few percent' seems to be the argument.
3 - Brexit is pushed back and deferred to a later date. The EU doesn't really want us to leave, although our recalcitrance with EU deals in the future will have to be addressed, and this would allow for a second referendum or a general election should I be wrong about Labour's chances.
What a mess.
12
Britain's wealth and dominance is an artifact of the power of the colonial system and their formerly great navy. Once the colonial system ended, wealth extraction or, more plainly speaking, the theft of the resources of others resources ended. The Boer War, WW1 & WW2 cut the British Empire down to size. Now they are trying to figure out how to proceed as a smallish Euro-island of diminishing influence. Empires come and go. Same as it ever was. Expect this to end badly. Very badly.
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@Economy Biscuits: Britain has not been a world military power for a very long time, and their empire ended with WWII.
Now they need to circle the wagons and protect what they have left, before the entire place is overrun with foreigners.
Willful ignorance in the populace, in both the UK and the USA, is the greatest threat that each nation faces today. And it is a grave threat.
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Yes it is Tom... here in Scotland before the Independence Referendum we tabled a 900 page document detailing everything wrt Independence... and we got hammered for it, 900 pages of details. I would argue that in a democracy in a similar manner.... a Brexit document Peer Reviewed and proven should have been provided. We got hammered for ours admittedly... but it was without doubt the fair and legal action.
27
This was exactly David Cameron’s mistake. He should never have agreed to a referendum without the “opposition” brexiteers producing a detailed manifesto. This allowed them to work in the shadows and sell a glamorous shifting vision of Brexit. Since everyone knew what Remain” looked like, it was only fair they should have also known what leaving would mean. Shame on you Cameron!
34
Britain's long history of arrogance and colonialism ensure that many around the world will watch its struggles, even its descent into chaos, with little sympathy.
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@D. Schreiber
they equal the Americans in arrogance that for sure
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@D. Schreiber
Whilst I don't expect sympathy, a little empathy would be nice for those of us (the nations of Scotland and Northern Ireland) who didn't vote for it and for those of us who weren't part of the empire. My daughters, as far as I'm aware, have never annexed an African state, been slavers, installed puppet leaders for oil or frustrated the EU. They get up to a lot, but at 8 and 6, I doubt it.
I would have liked them to have the chance to go to Berlin to study, Sofia perhaps or Barcelona. Maybe they'll fall in love with someone from Finland or Slovenia only to be told 'your paperwork is not in order.'
I don't expect sympathy, nor does the UK deserve it. Politicians have had every opportunity to stop the process and just say 'no, this is all a bit silly,' but they haven't. Those of us who didn't want it have no say.
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@Zoe It appears as though many of those who DID vote it were fed a lot of misinformation from Brexiteers. Nigel Farrage's promise of money for the NHS was denied the day after the result. His very quick resignation from UKIP leads me to believe that he was there simply to stir the pot and leave the fray as soon as he could.
16
This article sums up the current state of affairs quite well. The British political system, skewed as it is by the First-Past-The-Post voting process (effectively winner-takes-all) promotes and perpetuates the concept that a losing side has no right to partake in governance with the winning side. This deeply ingrained winner/loser dynamic has been socially catastrophic since the Brexit referendum, particularly given the underhand tactics and cynicism of both campaigns before the plebiscite. However whereas a general election always comes with the promise of abother one a few years down the line (or sooner if the new government fails to meet expectations!), the Brexit vote provided neither. Yet no one foresaw the consequences of a permanent winner/loser dynamic which has totally disenfranchised the the two halves of our society. Even a new referendum (the People's Vote) will only fracture us further. It's like going through an acrimonious divorce, but being forced to live in the same house with your ex-spouse forever afterwards.
So really there are two fundamental problems here - the immediate one, about whether Brexit will destroy the UK financially (and probably then politically), and the more worrying question - how on earth do we even begin to go about stitching our society back together. It will take at least a generation to recover from both.
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@Seb, I fear you are misguided and are making too much of 'winner takes all'. Instead of analysing the status quo - just tell us of a better method.
2
@John Bloomfield Proportional Representation
13
@Marialk
Funny you should mention that...
We had a, you guessed it, referendum on that very idea in 2011 and, once again, the UK electorate pulled the trigger on the gun at its head and firmly rejected it.
I'm beginning to suspect I'm actually French.
12
You say "many - not so much"
You should more accurately say 'a minority - not so much'.
There are few people, politicians on voters looking forward to a no-deal Brexit.
Some politicians see personal gain in it, some voters in desperation see it as the only way for it all to end. But the ones actively eager for it are the groups of extreme right wing demonstrators - and they number in the hundreds.
4
Only scoundrels with ulterior motives force you to make the false choice between self-determination and economic well-being.
6
Brexit is Britain's "Wall." It's meant to stop EU and other immigrants from getting British jobs, housing, healthcare and other benefits. It upends EU's intrusive regulatory regime. Britain will once more become proud and independent. Not dependent on that other place, Europe. Except that notion had long been dead long before UK joined EU. Britain doesn't have enough of or the right mix of people who can do the jobs being done by immigrants. Trade between UK and Europe has long been essential to the British economy. And the integration of the Irish markets north and south has long been an established fact. PM May has proved herself a poor negotiator. She needs to be replaced. And will be.
9
@Richard Comparing what is happening in Britain to the American Mexican border excites my imagination, which is all that I've got left of Brexit and Ireland's play in it.
I really think the best solution for the UK and the EU at this point is to get on with a no-deal Brexit. It might be bad shortly but, at least UK and EU citizens will have a clear view of the benefits and downsides of the EU. Then if it proves too painful, the UK can always apply to re-join with the truth in mind.
22
@Camille Many comments do say to give a no-deal a go, and that if the worst should come to pass, we can always re-join. Few point out that the UK currently has unique arrangements - and has maintained its own currency - which I strongly doubt will be re-implemented should a change of mind occur at some point down the road. If you think the noise over Brexit is loud, imagine the roar when it becomes clear that re-entry means adopting the Euro!
7
@Camille Why would the EU want such a dysfunctional bunch of troublemakers back?
4
It seems Russia has hit the jackpot for its disinformation campaign in both the UK Brexit dialogue and the US Trump administration activities. In both countries, the population has vastly increased its distrust of its own government's institutions and its support for isolationism. Both will weaken each country's ability to preserve and defend democratic values, as we already see in the US withdrawal from support for human rights at home and abroad. Russian influence in the Middle East will now take over as the US departs.
More investigation and wider dissemination by the media of the parallel efforts of Russia-backed pro-Brexit activities and Trump -Putin meetings and concomitant disruptive pullouts from international partcipatory activities would bring much-needed attention to this Russian strategy to weaken the West. It is not coincidental and has not received the emphasis it merits.
55
@Albans Not entirely. #Brexit was all about Conservative party infighting and just like #Drumpf, no one expected it to win. The Aftermath- trying to work out a deal with the #EU- was full of disengagement and superiority complexes, maybe Russia used this to sow confusion. Living in London now for 20 years, the British resolve was captured perfectly in this article- it does not believe the hype and no one can forecast the future.
9
The sky is falling! Airstrip One’s only hope for survival is the wise benevolence of Big Brussels.
4
No deal Brexit = Assume crash positions
6
Just like the educated (or should it be "egghead") elites in the US, they failed to respond to the dramatic changes in the lives of the masses that have been wrought be recent, accelerated modernization - outsourcing, immigration, automation, innovation, etc. The masses are falling back to wanting the relive the period of history that provided them with previously unimaginable benefits of secure jobs, decent pay and plenty of pubs. England, the US, Germany, France, etc. will survive this period and hopefully with a better world, but there will be at least a couple of wrenching decades before the masses start to feel comfortable again. These periods have happened throughout history and will continue until the climate has cooked us all.
11
@Mister Ed
People want to do better than just surviving. When you habe a government that favors immigrants over citizens you will see politicians that leverage this inequity. If Britain needs workers, why not train their own people? The same can be asked of the US. The answer is immigrants are cheaper and easier to exploit. We also do not need to pay for education. It also ensures the rich ruling class does not have competition nor will their slice of the pie shrink.
6
@skramsv Out native born population is shrinking -- we already have more jobs than people to fill them. And this generations immigrants will be next generations native borns. Let's educate them.
1
The vote on Brexit on 23 June 2016 and the election of Mr Trump on 8 Nov '16 are unfortunate harbingers of so-called stable democracies in the West shooting themselves in the foot. No one can know the outcome of a no-deal Brexit but it will not, like the US has discovered, be a pleasant one. Trying to go it alone in a world-connected economy is going to bring untold pain and misery to the Americans (see the stock markets) and downright disaster to the UK. How so very unnecessary.
56
@JLA Exactly. Completely unnecessary exercise. The Conservative party should be banished for taking their infighting into a referendum of such consequence.
11
Ms. Barry nailed it. Nothing else to say.
4
It’s fascinating to watch.
The Brexiters lied to the people.
The people made a terrible decision based on these lies.
The last 2 years has been a gradual awakening as the actual reality of what a Brexit entails has sunk in.....or not.
Theresa May is a weak person. She is too binary for this situation. She has failed to understand that this decision was made with bad information.
She has not changed her position over the last 2 years. She has been impervious to looking at the situation with a fresh pair of eyes.
A good start would be to kick her out.....and then to hold a second referendum.
22
@Alex Theresa May, like David Cameron before her, is beholden to the most right wing, anti-internationalist members of the Conservative Party. Cameron bet the farm - I mean the country - on being able to persuade the people to vote remain, thus checkmating the right wingers in his own party who were a nuisance to his government. His arrogance in assuming the referendum result would easily be what he expected led to a pathetically poor campaign effort by the Remain camp. Now the evil consequences of his arrogance seem likely to come to pass.
14
Merci Alex, Scotland voted 62% REMAIN and we’re being dragged out by “ les rosbif’s”, Theresa May heads amongst other things a deeply racist view, she had in 2013 advertising vans urging illegal immigrants to hand themselves in, before that while still Home Secreatry, she presided over the Windrush debacle... a shameless time when citizens of UK were deported to the Caribbean.... their crime was to be black or mixed race. Subsequently in Parliament she refused to apologise. Back to Brexit... both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted Remain, I’m first Scottish, deuxieme l’Europe, never British. I think we’re heading for FUKEW.... Former United Kingdom now England and Wales. Brexit is English Independence.
14
@Alan Harvey
It is almost certainly Scottish independence if a no-deal Brexit is forced on us.
I voted to stay in the UK at the last Scottish referendum but I would vote to leave and start the process of joining the EU if London persists with this sabotage and the SNP fire up the ballot boxes again.
I obviously don't know how many former Scottish 'remain a part of the UK' voters would switch but it wouldn't take many.
I honestly don't think we'll end up with a no-deal Brexit. Only the tabloid owners think this is a great move ("Build the wall, build the wall!") and I have just about enough confidence left in parliament to believe that the adults will apply the brakes if necessary.
I have often been wrong when predicting politics...!
6
Another instance where the politicians and elites are out of touch with the people. In the US, we have been repeatedly told by the mainstream media how the wheels are falling off and proclaiming imminent disasters. Nothing happened, the economy is humming along, people work, earn money, and spend it and some precious time with their families. Just remember the "disaster" when Rex Tillerson did not fill a bunch of Undersec positions. And? Nothing. It might happen that this shutdown, where the Trump administration is cleverly keeping all really necessary government services open (such as IRS for tax refunds), might show the American people that we actually don't need all these bureaucrats..?
10
@Henry K. No, we don't need air traffic controllers, or TSA agents, or Federal courts, or food inspectors, or the FBI, or Homeland Security, or management of public lands, or oversight of commerce and trade, or oversight of foreign affairs. Nah. We don't need none of that! We just need another brick in the wall.
15
That’s because they don’t know what a “No-Deal” Brexit will actually be like. Most I’ve spoken to don’t think a single thing will change, and mention of the vast network of trade movements flowing around us largely unseen to ensure their, say, bread is on the shelves, gains a “Oh I don’t eat a lot of that anyway”.
14
@Mat: seriously though -- does Britain really not manage to provide ANY of its own food? Can't import anything from the US, Australia, Canada? from China or India? REALLY? they are 100% dependent on the EU?
Because the US gets almost nothing from the EU and we manage just fine.
Britain somehow managed for centuries before Big Brussels and it will muddle through once it leaves its orbit. In reality the only thing in jeopardy is the ruling class’s dream of an international dictatorship of the elite which would render democracy obsolete.
3
@God I take it you have not been to Britain in the early 1970s (or even the early 90s). Back then, looking at housing, infrastructure, etc did not inspire associations with the First World, but something between First and Third World at best. EU membership has lifted the country out of its status as the 'sick man of Europe'. It'll be well on its way back to that soon.
29
Britain’s proletariat begs to disagree that London’s windfall has filtered down to it.
11
Although I am no fan of Brexit (or Trump), its chief cause is the failure of centrist and liberal parties to even address the pressures from mass immigration on ordinary citizens: reduced wages, loss of social cohesion, cultural conflict, environmental damage and threats to women and girls (Rotherham, Cologne, some parts of the US, Aus and Canada to name a few.)
In fact the one politician most deserving of blame for Brexit is Angela Merkel and her rash, foolish decision to allow a mass influx of (mostly) young, military-aged male economic migrants--not refugees--in 2015, and to encourage human traffickers to bring in Syrians and Afghans instead of supporting them closer to home, more cost-effectively.
The result? Mass sexual assaults on New Year's Eve 2015, horrible costs (tens of billions of Euros to the German treasury and taxpayers) and ongoing social tensions. Though almost all the migrants have since been deported or gone home, and even the Syrians are starting to go back, Merkel's policy continues to cost billions while German women, once among the most liberated in Europe, still fear going out alone at night.
British voters in June 2016 were shocked at Merkel's short-sightedness, and fearing a mass influx into their own country due to freedom of movement, voted to leave. If Western leaders want to prevent further Brexits and Trumps, they need to more honestly and rationally develop a common-sense immigration policy and help refugees near their points of origin.
74
@Radek Ah, no article about Europe without some good old Merkel-bashing. And no matter what Tucker and Sean tell you: the blonde and blue-eyed german women are safe. In 2017, crime in Germany was on a 30-year low.
78
@Radek Maybe if these countries- UK + USA- would stop invading and dismantling other countries there would be no need for those populations to migrate?
You seem to forget that both the UK + USA have had large scale migrations into their countries in order to shore up cheap labor. Is it only when it's convenient that we should allow migrants to enter? Without these such migrations, their capitalist base would not be where they are today.
13
@Mark B
I don't disagree with your broader point but your tone exemplifies exactly what I am talking about. FYI I am a longtime liberal Democratic voter, and professor with decades as an activist supporting the rights and education of girls in the developing world--the key to modern issues of development--and dislike Trump. But I've also seen how the smug and often dismissive attitude and policies of political elites have alienated the masses and fueled the populists' strength. I do not support what they are doing, but the failure of centrist parties to even address legitimate concerns--and the general lack of balance in unrestrained open borders demands--is leading to populists' victories.
Moreover the victims of the Cologne attacks let alone Rotherham and similar cities, with thousands of British young girls as victims, deserve the utmost sympathy, not dismissal. A good friend in Germany, contrary to your description, is a dark-haired German-Turkish woman, a longtime feminist and one of the best engineers I've worked with. And she was among the victims of the Cologne sexual assaults by those Merkel allowed in, as was the case for 100s of other women. Even today she is traumatized by it.
Dismissive attitudes towards the people's real experiences and concerns surrounding these issues are hurting the work of us liberals in the trenches to win popular support and get real progressive work done. Sadly, I fear Trump will be re-elected precisely because of these attitudes.
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Another instance where the politicians and elites are out of touch with the people. In the US, we have been repeatedly told by the mainstream media for 2 years how the wheels are falling off and proclaiming imminent disasters. Nothing happened, the economy is humming along, people work, earn money, and spend it along with some precious time with their families. Just remember the "disaster" when Rex Tillerson did not fill a bunch of Undersec positions. And? Nothing. It might happen that this shutdown, where the Trump administration is cleverly keeping all really necessary government services open (such as IRS for tax refunds), might show the American people that we actually don't need all these bureaucrats..?
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@Henry K.
If the shutdown continues for very much longer, people will lose their homes, their cars, their healthcare.
The NYT has already highlighted a case of a lady who can't afford her insulin due to the shutdown. Such a clever move by the Trump administration to show people that positions like 'ambassador' don't need to be filled...
I'm an airline pilot. The TSA is starting to creak and will not hold out for much longer. They're not well paid and they're not well respected by the public so they are going to go somewhere else soon. The air traffic controllers can probably stick it out a little longer because they're better paid and most will have some padding in their financial circumstances but there comes a point, doesn't there?!
How long would you work without getting paid? Trump doesn't play 3-dimensional chess and this is not all part of a plan so advanced that no one can see it coming. Same with Brexit - it's a mess, being pushed through with the sheer brute force of incompetence behind it.
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The IRS is not open for tax refunds. And he economy is a best partially “humming”.
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Theresa May said it herself, no deal is better than a bad deal. She negotiated a bad deal with the EU. It was not as if she did not try, but the EU were in no mood to negotiate a fair deal.
Proceed with Brexit without the deal. There will be winners and losers. When Germany realizes that they will also lose with a no deal, Germany will reconsider and will be change their stance, so that the will have the UK as a market for their diesel standards-cheating cars.
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@Philly Yes, what a good idea - let's damage our economy, our trade, our relationships with the rest of Europe and then wait forthem to come begging back to us.
More Brexiteer nonsense.
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The implications of Brexit if one reads or thinks are profound. The future of the NHS? Trade? Travel? The breakup of Great Britain? Yet it barely registers a yawn?
It is eerily familiar to those of us who are incredulous that "the Wall" is even more popular among Republicans according to a recent poll. Or could it be that a significant portion of both countries neither reads or thinks?
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Bingo! Your last sentence is all the explanation needed.
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@macman2
Don't forget to mention Mr. Smith, the truck driver who "rarely voted in his life".
Only when lying , manipulative Brexiteers offered up a way to blame immigrants and the EU for England's ills could he be bothered to participate in his democracy.
Guess those ugly little details and duties of citizenship were just a distraction from the pub and football the rest of the time.
@Shel
"Mr. Smith, the truck driver who "rarely voted in his life"."
To be fair, with the first past the post voting system, if Mr Smith is in a safe seat for a party he won't vote for, it is not unreasonable for him to decide to stay home.
Mrs May lost her majority in 2017 because there was a groundswell for voting tactically to get the Tories out. This meant many small party candidates decided not to run and risk splitting the vote.
There was no case for a referendum - there was no national impasse, only one within the governing party. The prime minister of the day elected to quieten rebels in his party by means of gaining national approval from the general electorate for remaining in Europe. He lost. And thus he raised the spectre of government by the people; not by Parliament. We don't look to the people to actually govern, because they are not capable of it. So they express their views via party-approved local delegates, who collectively look after matters of governing. Cameron upended the apple cart. Parliament is the real boss - not the executive, nor the rabble (like me). The dust will settle at the behest of Parliament, which will remain sovereign.
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Speak for yourself. While the technicalities of governing require some expertise, people can decide the big black and white issues. What nation you are and what flag is on your flagpole seems to be one of those issues. Our Constitution does not allow nationwide elections except as specified in its articles. We have lots of statewide, in states bigger than UK, referenda and people like them. Politicians do not, but that is too bad.
As an European Union citizen I am totally against delaying Brexit. The agreed upon date is March 29th, and it should remain so. No ifs or buts. The European Union does not need more uncertainty. As for the UK, they voted for Brexit hence they should leave the EU asap and deal with the consequences.
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@Bartokas The Brexit vote was a mistake for the UK, a very bad one. That has become much clearer in the time since the referendum. This mistake can be fixed and should be. But I do agree that fixing it is up to the British parliament and people, not the EU. The citizens of the EU did not bring on this fiasco - David Cameron did.
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@Observer1: yes, democracy is SO AWFUL than those awful proletariats don't vote the "correct" lefty liberal way!
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I think it is notable that the folks at the bar are adamant about what they will not lose by a no-deal Brexit. But I hear nary a mention of what they supposedly gain by Brexit, deal or no deal.
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@Chris
The pro-Brexit disinformation campaign leading up to the vote promised them safety from immigration. Fear played a big part in the vote to leave the EU.
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There's a rather significant difference between Brexit and Y2K the interviewees may have missed:
In the months leading up to January 1st, 2000, both the government and private sectors were working hard to create patches and build in redundancies to mitigate the damage.
Don't get me wrong--the threats of chaos and bedlam were almost certainly overblown. But whatever issues that might have existed were ameliorated and addressed well in advance.
But with Brexit? Neither Labour nor the Conservatives seems to have any clue what to do, or how to do it--mostly because they can't seem to agree on whether to do anything at all.
This is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
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@V N Rajan, yes Germany was blow to smithereens, but while Germany emerged with a strong industry Britain failed to manage on its own, with an economy run-down through mismanagement, until Britain became known as the "Sick Man of Europe", in worse state than Greece has ever been.
Britain is no Germany or Japan, it neither has their strenght nor their skills and work ethics. It's almost as the only time Britain was successful when on its own was when it could invade and plunder other countries.
If back in the '70s Britain hadn't been rescued by what today is the EU then Britain would have ended as a failed state. An outcome that, with a no-deal BREXIT, may well be back at the table.
5
It is exactly these "little people" for which the democratic system was supposed to have been made. As sovereign citizens of their country these people voted for Brexit. But without fail their wishes are belittled by the elites who know so much better, in their educated strata. For once I pray that the little people will win their undiluted Brexit this time.
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@Wolf Bein I want to agree with you, but once the reality of undiluted Brexit is upon the 'little people', they will still blame the elites for the breakdown of food supplies, stoppage of air travel, the need to obtain 3 different types of drivers licenses to tour Europe by car, and on and on and on. And, of course, the sharp drop in money the government can spend on the NHS and the poor, and renewed separatist tendencies in Scotland and N. Ireland. Better keep society functioning and deal with the false Brexit profits through persuasion and dialogue.
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@Wolf Bein The sovereign citiziens have been fed with lies and misformation by the Brexiteers. I wish the Britons good luck negotiating with countries like China, India or Brazil on their own.
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@Wolf Bein
And yet we do not have this type of democracy at all. Complex issues should never be put to a simple yes/no referendum. We have representative democracy where elected Politicians spend months or years looking at policies in detail. These little people have no clue whatsoever what lies in store for them, I pray they never have to find out.
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