"The relationship between support for the president and the wall is so tight that it’s hard not to wonder whether, at least for now, support for the wall is simply a function of support for the president. "
That is the key statement and applies equally to those, including congressional Democrats, who appose the wall. The wall is itself irrelevant. To his detractors the wall is a metaphor for Trump. To his supports it is shorthand for tighter boarder security. There was never going to be a 2,000 mile physical wall. That is not where the debate (not that there is any debate happening) lies.
10
How about putting up a wall around those states where 55% and more of the population supports Trump's border wall? Let them enjoy government shut- and meltdown, as each is for his or her own anyway (no lack of guns!). My apologies for the cynicism, but this trumpian wall tantrum causes irreparable harm to the republic and the world order as such, which the base is no longer willing to keep. Let's be real: there are only the DisUnited States, and the present situation is not a new one or a cause, but the result of decades of Real Existing Anglo-Saxon-Style Capitalism, aka. Organized Irresponsibility - against which many people all over the western world rightly rise up. This country needs a radical overhaul toward a functioning, fair and proportionally representative democratic multi party system, as the present one is clearly irredeemably dysfunctional. America is not alone in this, as the UK shows, and many western democracies too, where there are minority governments barely hanging on to power. There are plenty of movements and parties all around the world which are against any and all things, but not for anything. Russia's Czar Putin is delighted: he has achieved, and continues to achieve with each passing hour, the paralysis and self-destruction of western democracy, with US-UK as the most convincing example. He doesn't have to invade anywhere after Ukraine, it will be simply enough for him to hold up his hands and wait for the rotten fruit to fall into them...
4
Most of the high wall support states have no skin in the game. No southern border. Only Texas and that's moderate. There largely ideological. It's absurd to play chicken. Trump has no clue how to cooperate, compromise or govern.
No, the Democrats should not let this maniac bankrupt all of us with his malignant narcissism and reality TV drama personality. This is the crisis. Trump is the crisis.
3
Trump is only capable of a singular thought process to protecting our borders. Not only is it because he's dumb, but also because he's only doing so to pander to his base.
A smart man would find a solution, not hold to a ridiculous waste of US capital, one that could be tunneled under.
Electing a sociopath could only harm our nation. What a travesty that so much of our society is now paying the price for the ignorance of his followers.
9
Donald Trump clearly suffered a lot, as a kid and young man.
Here is, however, what Elie Wiesel, Nobel Prize winner who dedicated his life to exploring the suffering caused by the Nazis, writes about suffering:
"Suffering confers neither privileges nor rights; it all depends on how one uses it.
If you use it to increase the anguish of others, you are degrading, even betraying it.
And yet the day will come when we shall understand that suffering can elevate human beings ... . God help us bear our suffering well."
All the lies about immigrants and about how to protect the southern border, and all the cultivating of racism clearly are designed to increase the anguish of others.
The exact opposite is Joe Biden. He has been tremendously lucky in that he had been initiated in how to live with integrity and dignity and strong moral values and compassion, before life hit him. But then it hit him hard, and relentlessly. And yet, how well has he been able to bear his suffering!
I hope he runs for president. The contrast with Trump, and as a consequence the possibility of a real MAGA, couldn't be clearer for everyone to see.
1
Trumps base remained with him after he had brown people caged like animals!
That would never and has never happened to white people!
Absolutely VILE!
2
Almost two years now and I still can't believe that Trump is our president . . .
4
Could his wall-grifting intransigence indicate his budding inclination not to seek another term? He is a petulant little quitter too, you know.
3
Trump's base is salivating at more deportations, replacement by Trump of RBG and a possible war against Iran. They believe Trump is winning and teaching Schumer and Pelosi a lesson.
1
He doesn't care about anything to do with anyone but his 'base', so don't expect him to change course because the majority think otherwise about the wall. In Canada, we are thinking of crowdfunding for what one of our satirical magazines has termed a "Privacy Hedge" along the border. We would love you to visit, but don't really want you to notice us, or what we are doing here in the continental attic. All those rightwing bugaboos (more gun control, a national pharmaceutical plan, increased immigration and refugee support are all on the drawing board, along with rather contexted carbon taxes). So, avert your eyes. Keep looking South...
The Trump interlude has been most significant by ripping off the facade of an intelligent and caring electorate. the recent American narrative has been about the "informed" voter. Now it's about the Trump voters with values that conflict totally with the rest of America. Which is the "real" America? Well, it's both.
Anti immigrant, nationalist, anti-science, against any reasonable and necessary regulation, crude, sexist beyond imaginable, forgiving and adoring of a man who lies every time he speaks.
Congressman Steve King of iowa does, in the end, represent who the Trumpers are.
3
As part of the growing polarization of America, we have created caricatures of the other side. We're the latte sipping, NYT reading limousine liberals. They are "the Base." However, we must reconcile ourselves to the fact that Trump assembled a winning Electoral College coalition, even if it is less than the majority of the American voters. And he may do it again, if we look at his supporters as a monolithic block chiefly composed of non-college educated rural whites. What about the rich; the religious conservatives; business elites? No one will convince white nationalists or misogynists to vote for a woman or African American Democratic candidate. But hopefully that "Base of the Base" only represents a very small number. And the main reason Hillary lost is that so many people critical to the Democratic coalition stayed home. Elections matter, and we need to get past the belief that all politicians are scoundrels and that it doesn't matter who is in Washington.
This issue highlights so many of the things that make Trump unfit for office. His thin skin, his inability to compromise, his monumental insecurity, his failure to enlarge support beyond his base, his petulance, his personalization of complex issues, his lack of respect for and command of data, his racial bias...all of these emerge forcefully everyday in his dealing with this buzzword promise from the election. Ironically, because of all of this, we are seriously delayed from dealing with the very real problem of border security.
3
Benito Trumpolini has not helped his base. Yet he wants a wall.
His actions will hurt this country for years.
2
Unless rural Mainers want a wall with Canada, I would agree support for a wall is linked to Trump support.
1
Trump is president of his base. It makes sense for me and millions of others to say: Trump is not my president.
After all, Trump constantly says the same thing.
4
If people weren’t being hurt by the shut down it would be fun to watch the reality tv president be educated about the difference between Democracy and Monarchy.
Of course we need controls on our borders. A wall over two thousand miles long through some of the roughest terrain one can imagine, along a feisty and twisty river is unlikely and much of that border already has obstructions along it.
I am confident in saying the Texans on the north side of the Rio Grande, once enough of a border itself until modernity robbed much of its water, have ideas and opinions about what is needed.
How about we start with a practical, workable, appropriate to the situation set of laws.
Get George Bush and the other ex presidents together as a task force and put them to work.
I’m bored with Donald Trump.
The wall is not popular because the record number of days the shut down has been going and it is beginning to cause increasing inconvenience. I heard that there were long lines at airports for TSA screening for drinking water bottles and screening under clothing. I would like to remind everyone who think this useless poll matter that the president was not elected by popular vote but by the electoral college.
The president therefore does not probably care about his ratings in real time as in right this moment and is not also afraid of his reelection. If he can secure the border one way or the other with congressional appropriation or declaring a national emergency to deal with the crisis at the border he will have nothing to fear but fear itself. As an independent thinker with zero experience as a pollster, I can predict that Donald J. Trump will be reelected if he is alive alert and kicking in 2020. I cannot predict with any certainty that he may win the popular vote.
2
I'm a retired psychology prof who believes the commodity in shortest supply in our nation these days is intelligence. I keep looking for indices of intelligence on a state by state basis--percent of college grads in population, average college aptitude test scores, etc. Thanks for giving me another one.
1
Here's how a president can obtain a compromise bill in a democracy:
1. first of all, you carefully fulfill your constitutional duty to implement existing law, which means signing bipartisan appropriation bills into law - and of course, refusing to attach any controversial and highly partisan NEW project to such bills, as they need 60 votes in the Senate and doing so will effectively shut down the government.
2. you carefully pick your fights, and seek to build a compromise around a campaign issue that is entirely fact-based, but where different political philosophies (liberalism vs. conservatism, for instance) tend to favor different solutions.
3. you engage in talks with those who disagree with you, and organize a public debate in order to increase the number of arguments supporting your solution (congressional hearings etc.), and the number of lawmakers and citizens who support it too, all while respectfully listening to what the other side finds really important, so that you can include some of that in your compromise bill, which then makes it a real compromise.
4. you let Congress vote on that compromise bill.
Fact is, the GOP is not doing ANY of these four things, when it comes to comprehensive immigration reform and/or the law.
That is why they won't obtain anything here.
I hope this will teach them a lesson.
If you fire up your own base with lies, don't hold any congressional hearings, then shut down the government, and refuse compromise, you'll fail ...
6
(Sorry, that should have been:
"Fact is, the GOP is not doing ANY of these four things, when it comes to comprehensive immigration reform and/OR the WALL" (not "the law", of course))
1
Trump's approach to this one issue displays in full all his mental and emotional foibles. There are a lot of voters who can't stand Trump (such as myself) who actually want more control of our southern border. The US an absolute sovereign right and a duty to its citizens to predetermine how much immigration will be allowed, from where, and in what circumstances. As many have pointed out, there are better ways to control illegal border crossing which should be better funded, and that the Dems probably would agree to. But Trump instead digs in with "concrete" thinking, insisting on a physical symbol of his campaign promises. In the meantime, citizens suffer and the country experiences a true national emergency via the gov't shut-down. Both sides are losing.
44
@ Mary Ann
In 2013 already, Obama managed to get a bipartisan comprehensive immigration reform bill through the Senate (with a super-majority of 68 votes), which does exactly what you're saying here.
The GOP House unfortunately never allowed a vote on it - it was extremely likely that it would have passed.
Last spring, Democrats tried again, and this time, as the GOP had won the elections, they accepted a FULL funding of Trump's wall on top of it ($26 billion, for a concrete wall).
Trump had promised to sign it into law, but then, at the very last moment, flip-flopped. Why? Because Ann Coulter rejected the fact that the compromise bill included the bipartisan Dream Act - which 80% of the American people, including a majority of GOP voters, support.
THAT is why no wall was signed into law during his first two years in office.
And now he took the worst possible decision: to attach funding of the wall to an appropriation bill, in other words a bill designed to fund the implementation of already existing law for the next year (= a routine budget bill, that by definition cannot include new laws).
If the Democrats would accept to negotiate during a government shutdown, the GOP would continue to use this strategy to get them to vote for no matter what bill, and that is totally unacceptable. So now there cannot possibly be any compromise anymore.
If citizens don't understand why Pelosi HAS to do this, she'll do it anyhow, because it's the only way to prevent future shutdowns.
41
@Ana Luisa
Thank you. This is a great summary and explanation of why giving into a wall without compromise from Trump does not make sense.
17
@L
Thanks for your reply!
Actually, Pelosi not only said that she wouldn't negotiate during a shutdown, she added that once Trump signs the bipartisan Senate appropriation bill, she will accept to take up negotiations about immigration reform and border security again, but NOT about a wall. That is now definitively off the table, BECAUSE the GOP decided to shut down the government.
And she's perfectly right here too.
If the first thing she does as a Speaker, with Trump in the WH, is to allow him to no longer sign appropriation bills for months, and once he signs them to resume talks as if nothing happened, then each time Trump believes the reality tv show that comes with a shutdown might help him maintain or increase his "ratings", he'll immediately do it again, as he'll have nothing to loose at all.
So the only way to make the GOP stop inflicting this on America once and for all, is to make sure that ANY partisan item that they decide to attach to an appropriation bill, will become TOXIC.
That means: from then on, it will NEVER be included anymore in ANY future compromise.
Only when the GOP understands this, will they finally take responsibility for governing rather than merely campaigning again, and can we be sure that Trump from now on fulfills his constitutional duty of implementing already existing law, INDEPENDENTLY from whether he manages to get this or that new project signed into law.
That's why there will now be NO wall at all.
It's the only solution...
24
Nate Cohn wrote:
"For all of the focus on the president’s base over the last two years, there is not much reason to think that the base, alone, is enough for the president to win re-election."
^ This seems to be a curious assumption.
In a country that uses an antiquated electoral college system to choose its presidents, Trump's base of rural whites and angry Baby Boomers is all Trump needs to be re-elected in 2020.
Trump doesn't need to win over "other groups" or "more voters" at all. He has his Republican voter base and, among that base, he has the highest approval ratings of any Republican president. He is rock-solid with that base.
If Trump's base turns out in 2020 in the same numbers as 2016, he will lose the popular vote and keep the presidency.
The wall may be popular, but the messenger is not. Also there is no need at this time...and unlike the usual fabrication/prevarication/or outright lie Trump weaves, for the "past 10 years border crossings have been much lower than in previous times" including the period of time that Obama was in office. Frankly barefaced lying. But oops, today's tirade is directed at the FBI and the New York Times, he is distracted from the border, so he is letting his minions including Grahame scream about the Democrats instead. Blaming them for a shutdown that is totally the making of a Donald J. Trump.
3
It seems that most are missing the major reasom Trump supports the Wall despite many polls showing the public is against it.
Trump is using the wall not to protect citizens on our southwest border. Rather he is using it to keep the topic off his Russian connection. We all know he is a SLB. Very cunning, lack of morals and lacks knowledge to be our President. He also knows it.
7
OK...this is how this manufactured crisis will end---when Congressmen and women are too frightened to fly home---because air traffic controllers walk off the job and their constituents can't fly out of town...
4
I have a new idea for the wall: melt down a million guns and build the wall with them. I might be in favor of it then, even though of course it would be super-ugly.
3
I support Trump and I support immigration— the legal kind.
3
@Tuco
But do you support the idea of no longer paying TSA and border patrol agents when Trump notices that he doesn't have the votes in Congress to pass a wall ... ?
Because that's what this is all about.
1
Of course Trump’s approval is stuck. The kind of people who support him don’t just magically become not-stupid.
12
Like all autocrats, Trump has a solid base of followers who believe a crisis exists because Trump says so. These folks voted for him believing Trump was the only one who could understand and solve the immigration crisis that he manufactured. To them any act of Congress in deciding the action to be taken to solve the Trump manufactured crisis is irrelevant.
The Trump rallies like other fascist rallies create a core group who will blindly believe anything Trump tells them that justifies a border wall because they have heard his rhetoric and promises so many times. This is how dictators rule.
The same core group believed Hillary was a criminal because Trump as Judge and jury said so.
The base will not accept the possibility that the person they adore and follow is the true criminal. They have been brainwashed. Goebbels is smiling.
6
I'm not a psychiatrist, but I believe there is a spectrum of pathology, from 5 alarm neurosis to all-out nihilistic psychopathy. In your political system, it seems to me that, broadly speaking, the Democrats are the party of the neurotics, and the Republicans are the party of the psychopaths. You appear to have only these two parties. You also appear to be suffering from the delusion that your 18th century constitution provides the necessary "checks and balances" to protect your society from descending into tyranny. In fact, this delusion is so strong, that it has never been seriously challenged until now. If I were your psychiatrist, I would prescribe a parliamentary system with proportional representation, with a Prime Minister (the leader of the majority party in the House of Representatives) as the head of government, the Senate as a chamber of sober second thought, and a figurehead president with limited executive power as head of state. Well, I'm not a psychiatrist of course, just a friend and neighbour from north of your border and I hope that you get through this ordeal somehow soon.
8
I just can't seem to figure out how Trump gets 38 to 42% of the country to support him. Oh wait, I forgot, Fox news.
6
Just a reminder about how concerned Republicans are about America
Republicans Block U.S. Health Aid for 9/11 Workers
Senate Republicans raised concerns about how to pay for the $7.4 billion bill to provide care for workers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/10/nyregion/10health.html?hp
3
In any population of millions, there is a large segment of the chronically ignorant and insecure. America has always struggled with that backward core. It is the Trump base, the GOP base, the Fox News base, always easy to con and frighten. It is a dead-weight on modern society, an embarrassment to the nation. The inherent wisdom and virtue of the mythical Common Man is an absurd conceit. The shining mansion on the hill is now a trailer park.
4
while i oppose trump’s wall, the graph supporting this story is misleading in that it lops off 65 percent of its measurement (0-30% and 65-100%, thus exaggerating the rank of opposition to the wall and minimizing the support for the wall. the lines for support and opposition are actually much closer than the graph makes them appear.
shame on the times.
1
John Karl, ABC Chief WH correspondent, shocked This Week host George Stephanopoulos this AM when responding to a NYT story on Trump being a Russian agent. Karl said: "When Mueller issues his final report it will be anti-climatic." He continued "my sources indicate that there has not been any evidence of collusion nor obstruction."
Then when commenting on the WAPO story on Trump-Putin transcripts missing, Karl indicated "Trump has had many similar meetings with other world leaders." He downplayed any suggestion of wrong doing.
2
Thump 5,577 lies, 4,675 lawsuits, half a dozen bankruptcies, and, then, shutting down the Government now for the third time. Wow!
Indeed Thump is the false billionaire (but millionaire) wanted from billionaires to be their puppet…they got what they wanted $2 trillion in tax scam fraud, billionaires’ death estate tax gone, no regulations, and with the bigger loot hole's deductions for Welfare Queens Corporation's and freeloaders moochers billionaires, half of the US Senate and Congress should be in Prison. Thump working on his next big Bankruptcy the US Government!
ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN, PBS, including Fox News, etc., are not being played. They are full and knowledgeable participants willingly and unwillingly in the scam. Trump is one of their benefactors...
The present circumstances have been manipulated to the benefit of the oligarchy, which includes the media.
Trump would not be the master conman if he didn't have the Republican Party, the Evangelicals, the media and the obscenely rich all working to keep him in power, he would be in jail by now.
5
The popularity of the Zika Virus is higher than Trump's.
2
Trump is extorting the country because he does not have the votes to get his way.
It is Executive Blackmail. It is a crime. It is Obstruction of Governmental Administration. It is the hallmark of a dictator.
Should America reward this fascist by giving in to his blackmail ?
Never.
4
Bigotry and fear are what drew the Trump supporters in and the promise of the wall sealed the deal for these ignorant people.
No matter how deeply Trump damages their lives, the hardcore base will never admit they were wrong.
It’s almost like Trump could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose one supporter.
6
When I see Trump speak what comes to mind is lier lier pants on fire. Brownsville Texas mayor said all is peaceful there after the NYT's did an interview . Mcclellan Texas mayor said yesterday same scenario. We don't need a 5.6 billion wall and we don't need Trump . Lock him up.
3
He can't run from prison.
1
My Coast Guard nephew is braving bad weather and dangerous conditions to save lives. And not getting paid! Trump sacrifices nothing. Absolutely disgusting.
7
Anyone with half a brain knows that a wall will do nothing. I thought one needed to be smart to be on the Senate, but I no longer believe so.
3
Oh well... we will be deserving of everything coming our way... Get out the handkerchiefs for the crocodile tears.
Please. Enough of these articles. He. Doesn't. Care. About. Expanding. His. Base.
3
The president must have a 25th amendment psychiatric checkup and instant removal from
Office. He is crazy and most Americans and politicians know it— even borderline Lindsey Grahame, himself dubious!
6
Good fences make good neighbors....Ben Franklin.
1
It was not Ben Franklin it was Robert Frost in his 1914 poem Mending Walls.
Within that poem is also the line
"Something there is that doesn't love a wall. "
@DJ This by no means is a good fence but an alienating one .....no pun intended .
It's difficult for me to believe the country is populated by so many evil people. But if one subtracts the Confederate States of America and the pathetic state of West Virginia there is a redeemable remnant.
But we must have a formal separation. Humanity will benefit from our dissolution.
3
Wrong. We need laws enforced and the United States Constitution upheld. Both Rosenstein and Mueller are the highest level of professionalism legally and regarding Constitutional law. They are bound by law and oath. They are Republican conservatives and have no partisan motivation. They know about and pursue truth and justice.
2
@Yuri Pelham
I really tire of red state bashing. There are millions and millions of progressives in red states, frequently 45% or so. We're the ones who live with no expanded Medicaid, voter suppression, anti-abortion legislation, etc. We could use some support.
@John Levy
The Constitution is a dead document. It's ignored though people pay it lip service.
What is the Fox News Voter Analysis and why should we spend any time with this or any other Murdoch driven primary source material?
7
This kerfuffle over the wall is easily solvable as long as everyone goes back to their original principles. Mr Trump promised a wall and that Mexico would pay for it. Democrats have voted for walls before.
Although Donald constantly revises the book on revisionist history, reporting this weekend has confirmed that despite his current stance that he “never said Mexico would pay for the wall directly”, print outs from his campaign website (long since removed) show in detail that he wanted a $5 billion to $10 billion down payment directly from Mexico for the wall. He has also said this specifically in numerous videos.
And of course in 2006 and 2013/14 many Democrats voted for more walls on the southern boarder.
So here’s the deal: Chuck and Nancy should go to Trump and offer that they will support the wall as long as he keeps his ENTIRE promise. Mexico either pays or commits to pay the $5.7 billion that we currently need and the Dems will support the wall. No taxpayer money will be spent. A waste of course, but everyone is happy because........it is not our money!
The thing is, not keeping the ENTIRE promise on Trump’s part would be like someone inviting you to dinner on them and then after the dinner they say “Hey...umm..since you didn’t have to cook dinner for yourself at home you have already saved money for dinner so it is only fair that you pay your half now”.
What a deal for the deal maker in chief! How can he pass this up? Am I right??
3
@Quizical
No.
THE problem today is that the GOP has refused to pass an appropriation bill, which is a bill designed to fund the implementation of ALREADY existing law, and decided to attach a highly partisan NEW law (= building the wall) to it.
That de facto shuts down the government, endangering national security.
So as a negotiation strategy it is TOTALLY unacceptable.
That means that :
1. NO negotiations about a wall can start as long as the GOP refuses to pass the bipartisan appropriation bill that already exists.
2. Once that bill passes, comprehensive immigration reform talks can resume, BUT now, because of the shutdown, talking about a WALL is no longer an option.
That is the only way to force the GOP to never ever shut down the government in the future again, as it shows them that any item that they want to attach to an appropriation bill will from then on an by definition NEVER be signed into law.
IF Pelosi would give in here, we would have shutdowns all the time, and basically no longer a functioning country.
By the way, Democrats last spring had accepted a compromise bill that included full funding for the wall. It never became the law of the land because at the very last minute, Coulter started to attack Trump because it included DACA, so he caved.
He could have easily introduced a clean wall bill after that, which only needed 50 votes in the Senate. He didn't do so.
But again, now that there is a shutdown, the wall itself became irrelevant.
1
FiveThirtyEight's most recent DISAPPROVAL rating: 54.3% A/O 09:50 1/13/19
Go, baby, GO!
Would very much like to see His Lowness thoroughly washed up. May all the people who stay in hotels bearing the name Trump, and all the people living in apartments and condos bearing the name Trump, and all the people living in buildings owned or syndicated by any member of either the Trump family or the Kushner family find better accommodations elsewhere.
1
Basically , what Trump has done is hold federal workers hostage to his whims ; nothing new there , typical behavior of an unhinged personality wanting things his way . So far all his outrageous acts have become the norm and people lose sight on the real issues ie: money (our taxpayer money ) hard earned and Trump's purse to spend as he wishes . The workers have become his serfs to him and his cohorts who don't care if part of the populace have bills , mortgages to pay . I'm sure the building of this wall has nothing to do with keeping people out but more of the deals he has negotiated with his crooked friends ( Halliburton in Iraq comes to mind ) and how they stand to profit . Will people still vote for him ??? " A fool and his money are soon parted ".
4
By the NYT definition, Trump is tone deaf. That is, his position is opposed by the NYT and the majority of polled citizens. Of course if the NYT was in favor of his position, then he would be showing "political courage" by going against popular consensus.
@J. Waddell
No, that's not what this article is saying.
What it is saying is that Trump shut down the government to obtain a wall, in the hope that that would increase his chances to be re-elected, whereas polls show that it is on the contrary reducing his chances.
This is not an op-ed (= subjective opinion) piece, it's a news article, remember? So it just states the facts.
What Trump is doing with his constant "enemy of the people" slogans, is to brainwash people like you in such that you start to imagine that ALL negative news about Trump must by definition be mere opinion rather than news, so that you can easily ignore it. So you probably didn't even seriously read this article in the first place, and that's why you got its mean message wrong ... am I right?
2
Donnie is a deeply, deeply flawed president and an amoral human being. We should all strive to be a better person than he is.
2
One thing we know for certain is that Trump will not shut up about the shutdown until he gets some sort of face-saving gesture. Remember, it's all about him, not about any real legitimate need for the wall -- all about The Donald and his continued demonization of those South of the Border in opening his campaign in his gilded Trumpistan palace. "I would look like a fool if I changed my stance," as he put it in one meeting to supposedly end the shutdown. And then he finally admitted on Twitter, "A wall is what I want." It's just that simple and sickening. He wants it because he wants it. He'll tell any bald-faced lie, scapegoat any and all who oppose him, because it's what he wants and it's all about him. We all know what the unpretty outcome of all this is going to be.
2
Trumps supporters appear to seriously differ over only one question, has their dear leader been sent by God, or the devil? And if all of the evidence, such as his enormous vanity, shameless immorality, wanton cruelty and brazen false witness tend to suggest the latter, well, it only confirms that God sometimes works in mysterious ways - so, six of one, half a dozen of the other.
I am not shocked that the Northern States farther from the border eschew the wall. You Yankees now are similar to the Southern States that in 1850 thought slavery was not a problem. This does and will affect every American citizen from their taxes to their safety ...eventually.
1
@Mark Andrew
Just look at the map, and you'll see that the opposite is true: it's the southern border states that don't support the wall, whereas it's states without any border that support it, you see?
You're confounding subjective prejudice and objective facts.
5
Trump and McConnell belong behind bars in no-windowed-walls cells.
3
A $5 billion wall? Yeah. We need that because Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh say we do. Why don’t they pay for it?
5
The U.S. is the world's longest -running democracy. It is the world's biggest economy. It has been the dominant international power and a beacon for human rights.
Yet millions of dimwits voted to "shake things up". Now the country is in perpetual crisis, our institutions are under attack and we are an international joke, with the president laughed at by the United Nations. I'm sure most of the "shake things up" crowd are still part of his base.
If you're one of them, shame on you for your careless and frivolous disregard for your country. This chaos, and the decline of America as an international standard, is on you.
3
His “ ratings” in any particular State mean a combination of the usual suspects, and “ reasons “:
Racism
Sexism
“ Religious “
Uneducated/gullible
Spite
Victimhood, i.e. somebody else is always to Blame.
Please, someone invent a time machine, and send these folks back to their future. The 1700s seems about right.
Wow. The Dems lose again. Look a continuous fence is not a bad idea. Just say you will fund a fence. This completely removes all Trumps amo. And it will help with border security.
Why is this so hard? You will hand Trump his soundbytes if you dont.
1
South Dakota, despite being 900 miles from the Rio Grande, ranks near the top in support for the Wall. WHY? Half the people in that state never even saw a brown skinned person in their entire lives. They fear that which they know nothing of.
4
@ChristineMcMann
Yes!
Mitch!
I have been researching his connections w his wife to nefarious Eastern European companies and lobbyists.
His “ milk toast “appearance and delivery belie his potential collusion along w his wife.
If I knew how to attach my data to this comment I would.
But my tech savvy wanes. Sorry.
Start with Wikipedia biopics and click the links to his rational for being so passively aggressively destructive to our republic .
He needs an indictment and jail time.
And it is not a conspiracy website.
I got to actual corporate data thanks to my retired State Auditor husband guiding my search for records.
A trove of greed.
1
The strategy of appealing to (old) white men in rural areas is a loser from pure demographic calculations. That Trump cannot see it is no surprise. He has no experience or interest in learning. He is a narcissist that just wants enthusiastic crowds to cheer him. He is getting what he want and probably would not mind losing in 2020 (and getting out of all the stress and work of the presidency) - as long as he can blame the loss on "millions of illegals voting against him". The beauty of it all is that he is dragging the GOP into this blind alley and they seem unable to resist it - even as it becomes an existential threat to the party.
Two thoughts: on hearts and minds - still waiting for Ds to run advertising blitz replaying trump’s Oval Office admission that the shutdown is his.
And, on news sources - a Fox ‘News’ survey?? from the single biggest purveyor of fake news? What’s up with that?
No surprise here. The vast majority of states supporting the wall are more dependent on government support than those that don't. Typical red state takers.
3
Trump's ratings stay the same; because trump's base love him and will do whatever he commands them to. The wall; we hate it. Trumpies; they love it cause he tells them to. His 36% base loves; adores; cherishes him. Mueller can find anything; literally anything; they will stick with him. Trump will not win 2020 because we of the 64% are done with his chaos and crime. Ray Sipe
1
90% negative coverage of the president and he still has about the same approval rating as Obama had with 90% positive coverage , makes you wonder what the presidents approval would be with fair media coverage? The American people want the wall or Trump wouldn't be the president , he is asking for 5.7 billion out of a 4 trillion dollar budget. Over 2000 Americans were murdered by illegal aliens last year , come one democrats show America that your not for open borders give him the money and get the government re-opened .
@Ja Vek
Since immigrants (legal and undocumented) commit few crimes per capita than native Americans, more immigration would lower the crime rate. And they secure Social Security.
one is curious regarding precisely what are the demographics of the trump base. what % are white retirees? what % are urban dwellers? if a portion of the 38'42% of this electorate base feels economic pain from this charlatan's self imposed government shut down, we should be hearing about it by now.
1
@john dolan
Most of his base is comprised of the usual Republican voters, who are predominantly middle to upper class or rich. I read recently that most people making $50,000 or less voted for Clinton. Only 14% of voters who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 switched to Trump, and these were mostly people in the rust belt who are hurting economically. (A lot more voters stayed home last time). I don't think it behooves the Democrats to continue to belittle these people. Maybe we need to focus on reducing economic inequality and making healthcare more affordable.
1
Trump went as far to the right as humanly possible for his base, and that far to the right, the southern border is seen as an unprotected post-Apocalyptic wasteland overrun by murderous drug-dealing rapists, and the only thing that can stop those brown skinned invaders from murdering, raping, drug dealing (I guess selling drug to the people they kill and/or rape to ease the pain), and voting Democratic is a wall, because none of them would think to fly in on a visa and overstay much less come through a port of entry. Trump's wall is a slap in the face to Hispanics and a favored trope of people who think the United States should be a homeland for white English-speaking Christians...and not many else. This is the base Trump is trying to keep for 2020. He doesn't realize he's president not BECAUSE OF what he did in the 2016 campaign but IN SPITE OF it. The popular vote tells that story. So while he could win reelection without winning over people outside his core supporters, he's not making it easy for himself. (Although I don't mind that at all.)
Regardless of our political differences, surely we can all agree that building a wall around Kellyanne Conway could prevent another Bowling Green Massacre.
1
Trump has something that other politicians do not, and definitely not democrats: millions of people who believe Obama was born in Kenya. For a politician this is priceless. Say whatever you want, do whatever you want, shoot whoever you want on 5th av and they will love it.
He’s out of control.
1
His ratings may be stuck in place right now but will the base tolerate treason?
@Christy
His base will just deny it. They are not very good at seeing what is before everyone's eyes.
1
@Christy
They won’t believe it... Fake news....
the shame is, his base likes his behaviour
I think it's pretty obvious to most everyone, but the most diehard Trump supporter that Donald Trump not only doesn't know how to negotiate and doesn't know anything about the art of the deal, but he more than anything, doesn't know what he is doing.
It is embarrassing to have such an incompetent windbag spew out gas everyday whether in person or on twitter, that is so obviously incompetent that he can't even function and what's worse is that his enablers like Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy are clueless.
We have a Dysfunctional President and Republican Congress, holding American hostage to their dysfunction.
Now, we have reports that Trump was under suspicion of being a traitor and Russian Stooge, Mole, Collaborator, unbelievable......what President in anyone's lifetime has been so protective of the Russian Leader, and continually alibi's someone like a murderer like Putin...no one, but Trump.
1
@Chico
We are also being held hostage by a minority (trump's base) of voters/citizens. We now have minority rule in this country.
Looking at your map, it would appear that we could satisfy most of DJT's base if we built a wall around a big chunk of the South and part of the midwest. Anyone terrified of the rapists, murderers and terrorists streaming across the border in yuugh numbers could move there if they wish. Oh, and those states could pay for it as well.
With apologies to wall opposers in those states, but this problem might also be solved by talking some sense into your neighbors. Perhaps they are unaware of the statistics published recently here in the NYTimes regarding immigrants? I know. Fake News!
Just saw a note CNN that said Wilford Brimley-Bolton Trump's Foreign Policy Advisor wanted plans to attack Iran.
Another "real good" for the brilliant minds in the White House and the McConnell (I'm goin' home for a break) GOP / Senate.
Again - 2019 getting off to a Trumpian disaster for year three.
The "base" is stickin'...
2
I think the Democratic House should authorize 25 Billion Dollars of targeted money for Border Security, however none of it permissible to use for a Border Wall; it can be targeted for hiring more agents, enhance high tech surveillance equipment, drones, improve entry points with proper facilities for detention, repair existing barriers, etc. etc., but no money for new Border Wall construction.
It would call the Dysfunctional Republican's bluff and put more pressure on that Clown Trump and Bozo McConnell.
2
I am saddened that so many Americans don't know their political and social history. It is now over a hundred and twenty five years that the fundamentalist have stuck with the "populist" nationalist candidate and it never was about policy. In 1896 Trump's core voted with William Jennings Bryan and the socialists but back then it was the left that was racist, xenophobic and antiSemitic.
Now they are not Anti Semitic they just want us all to move to the Holy Land and they vote for greed and subservience.
The Wall is way over the top it will be ready when there may be a huge exodus to our Southern Border and already more people want to move to Mexico than want to come here from Mexico and when the wall is built President Obrador may have fulfilled his promise to turn the Central American states around.
I really love America but I believe within the decade Mexico will have a stronger economy than the USA. If we all survive it may take a century to recover from Nixon and Reagan.
The lack of rational thought among trump's base is a wonder to behold. Follow the clues people.
2
Republicans own this shutdown. Trump owns Republicans.
Who is Trump’s base? Disenfranchised Americans voted mistakenly for Trump. 40% of Americans rent and 78% live paycheck to paycheck. #TheRenters lack any national advocacy coalition and have few options. Mobile Home Owners rent land in mobile home parks and have seen their rents rise recently. Trump’s base mistakenly voted for a landlord and against their own interests. The Free Press owns part of this meltdown since mass communication is in a mishandled transition. The question is how to educate his base in this social media circus environment. Living in NC District 11, a heavily gerrymandered district represented by Mark Meadows, where is an investigative piece on Meadows? He wrote me that #TheRenters do not have the right to breathable rented air and they should retain attorneys to obtain minimum standards of habitation, breathable air, in Appalachia. Asheville, NC is a liberal bastion represented by the Chairman of the House Freedom Caucus. 2016 was The Perfect Storm. Blame is shared by the Democrats as well for not acknowledging their failure to advocate for #TheRenters, The Majority Voting Bloc. The Shutdown is now an unavoidable meltdown. It will little affect landed gentry and landlords. Most Americans do not support the wall and family separations. How do we educate Trump’s base? Legal opinions on breathable air for renters are posted @TerriSummer.
When will people in the public commentariat realize that the “base” itself should be the target of incisive analysis and criticism? This isn’t the first time in the history of democratic government that the people have made a colossal error in electing an unfit and dangeroos person. Acceptance of that assignment as “critical Tribune” of the base isn’t easy because the only effective way of delegitimization of it’s irrationality and venom may be the voting booth, I fear. But such a defeat may be inadequate in the future because the same conditions which gave rise to fascism in other lands may still thrive here leading to more buffoons of far more talent.
1
Republicans own this shutdown and Trump owns Republicans.
Trump’s base is the disenfranchised. 40% of Americans rent. 78% live paycheck to paycheck. Mobile home owners rent the land in parks and rent is rising recently. #TheRenters mistakenly voted for a landlord and they lack any national advocacy coalition. Living in Mark Meadows district, NC-11, a heavily gerrymandered one wherein Asheville is a liberal bastion, an investigation of him would be timely. He does not believe that breathable air should come with the rent and that renters should hire a lawyer if they expect breathable air. The Free Press is in transition and unhealthy. The job of educating Trump’s base should not be attempted in a social media circus environment. Legal opinions on why breathable air does not come with rent posted @TerriSummer. This meltdown is now unavoidable. The disenfranchised are forcing the country to listen to them.
It's clear by now that Trump requires constant external reinforcement to support his fragile ego.
He needs the rallies with cheering fans wearing MAGA hats, and he needs to hear good things about himself every day on FOX News. A deft cut by Ann Coulter calling him "gutless" turned him quickly around when he was ready to let go of the wall demand.
So, basically, Trump is a puppet, at the whim of those who feed his ego. Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh know his strings. He doesn't even care about the wall any more. He wants to go and play golf at Mar a Lago. But his base wants a wall (yes, that's mainly because he trained them that way at his rallies) so now he's locked into it. And his puppeteers won't let him forget about it.
It's fitting, perhaps, in the Age of Addiction, that our President is himself an addict, forever jonesing for another hit of praise.
A family intervention would be greatly appreciated right about now.
It just seems so easy, Mr. Trump.
Open the government, and Nancy will open bipartisan talks so that Congress can do their work. Mitch will work with her if you admit ahead of time that you'll sign a bipartisan bill.
Open your tiny little kiddie-mind to the idea that there are a lot of elements to border security and immigration and let the legislators work out details (a job you hate to do) and when the dust settles, SIGN THE BILL.
2
Given the title of this article, I would have thought it would present more recent data than last fall's polls.
With how many people, groups, religions, races, places (PR) has Trump picked a fight? How this man can maintain anywhere near a 40% approval rating is testimony to the degradation of American society, education, and Congressional integrity. He's running a cult, plain and simple. These people have no critical thinking skills, and are spoon fed today's "truth" by Faux and Trump tweets. But, to get to my point, Trump's base may not be eroding, but he will NEVER, EVER win over new votes. As much as his base is rabid with anger and hate, we the majority are absolutely disgusted and see this Con for all his lies and corruption. My core point: his current 40% is his absolute CEILING of support.
1
The Wall will go when Trump does. THat is largely window dresswing. The values of the US will remain damaged as long as the GOP is in power under present management. It will be in power as long as neocon and neoliberal premises reign over both parties. Trump is right about what we want. Open borders. One world. Add stop trashing George Soros.
1
Trump has managed to radicalize both sides of the political ledger. Compromise is the lifeblood of democracy. But After 8 years of Obama and now 2 years of Trump, it's out of fashion
It doesn't help that Trump plainly lies, lies about his lies, invents false crisis, etc. It's hard to reason or compromise with that. SO what we need is immigration reform, not a wall - a classic government boondoggle favorite with Soviet Union and China.
If only the centrists from both sides could craft rational policy compromises and present it to the public, maybe it would gain enough support to override the enfante terrible and the crazies on both sides.
1
Nothing short of another depression or a humiliation overseas will change the minds of Trump’s base support. And they are going to turn out in massive numbers.
He has lost suburban GOP women and GOP Main Street businessman types are not too happy either.
But his Base will trn out massively and polls, as we learned in 2016, do not mean much. We mist have a massive Ble Wae turnout. No mater who te Dem nominee is.
1
I'm trying to decide if I want someone to read this article to the president, and explain words like "consequences" to him, or not.
1
The fact trump, and his base, equate a symbol (i.e., a "wall") with something as nuanced, complex and challenging as "border security" is what's most troubling.
This child-like and simplistic worldview has became the national narrative and discussion, and millions of Americans are being hurt as a result of their inability to deal with the issue as clear-eyed adults.
2
More informative polling would have a follow-up question: "what are your usual news sources?"
He doesn’t need new supporters. He won big time last time around after all - 304 to 227.
Trump should stick with the wall.
1
@Jay Holder
Hahahahahaha!
Then let's stop taking/writing about the wall. Time to move on and hope Trump will, too.
1
Too bad Mr. Trump will never read this analysis or understand its import if anyone attempts to explain it to him.
The man is on a self-destruct mission. The only question is how many people and how much of the nation will destruct with him.
Fiendishly clever, that Putin.
republican voters have now come face to face with their dependency on getting more from the federal government than they pay in taxes, paid for by democratic states. however they still refuse to see the truth. Maybe we should shut down more? Democratic states are far less effected by shutdowns like this one.
2
The fact is Trump may have difficulty running for re-election from federal prison.
1
Of course the popularity of the "wall" has been stuck in place. Trump has never made a true case for the wall. He has never made a logical, rational, facts-based case to the American public. His 9 minute Oval Office speech was a false-information-filled joke. If he wants to gain support for the "wall" from independent voters he can't keep regurgitating the dozen or so campaign-style soundbite phrases he has been saying. The reality is - that's all he has, so the needle will never move.
1
Just wait until the Mueller report comes out. It will be like a stick of dynamite, blasting away the president's hard core support. That plus the negative impact of the shutdown, the tax cut for corporations and the rich, and all the other the other hair brained things he's done and said should drop his approval rating to about twenty something percent, which is where Nixon's was when he resigned.
@Bobby Fuller
Unless the Mueller report results in him being locked up, his supporters will ignore it. It will be just fake news from the democrats. You’re from Texas... do you know many who believe he is flawed? I hope so, but suspect not. People I talk to believe nothing bad about him.
Trump considers all Democrats 'enemies'. I've never thought of myself as an enemy of America, but Trump and his cult fan base think that about me.
And that's no way to enlarge a base, making all Democrats 'enemies'. But that's the way it is for this person.
We're all Trump's enemies if we don't agree with him.
3
One take-away from the graphic of the states is that there's little approval for the border wall in the border states, even in usually deep red Texas which here is light purple. They don't seem to be frightened of all the "rapists," "criminals," "drugs," and "terrorists" supposedly pouring across the wide-open border. In fact, given the clear absence of any "national security" threat with immigrant crossings at a 20-year low, drugs coming through ports of entry, and only six persons on the terrorist watch list turned away in the first-half of 2018, one wonders if this should be considered a states-rights issue not a federal one. Let Arizona, California, New Mexico and Texas voters decide if the want a wall. And if so, let them pay for it.
If the shutdown were entirely Trump's fault, and everyone in Congress were against Trump, then Congress could override a veto and pass any legislation they want on their own. They NYT is again trying to blame Trump for issues that have at least somewhat broad support, if not majority support.
As children die in what some could compare to concentration camps and people risk everything to flee death or conscription into drug cartels, we discuss a wall. Really? How many billions? How many pediatricians could that hire for detained children? Or therapists? Or how many immigration personnel could we put in place to actually vet those seeking asylum? We are a cold hearted people who have come to the place that this discussion is a political one rather than a humanitarian one.
And I cannot imagine the environmental impact of a wall either.
1
First of all, Nate Silvers disagrees with you and shows a clear trend in defection in Trump’s base.
Second, Trump DOESN’T CARE if his base doesn’t grow! He only cares that he already has 30% of American in his camp and just want to be sure he seals the deal with THEM. The reason is simple: he doesn’t plan to win in ‘20 but, instead, has plans to start his own Trump Network to compete with Fox, per his sessions with Roger Ailes back in ‘16/‘17 before his death, and he plans to make a fortune off of those lemmings in his base.
How could anyone possibly think he could have any other motive?!
Mark my words, Trump is not going away when he’s out of the WH. But the good news is that the Trump Network likely won’t be able to hide the wolf behind sheep’s clothing, a skill that’s expertly navigated among the halls of Fox.
Trump’s disastrous arrogance with the wall is akin to the mindless parroting from the likes of Hannity, Ingraham, Limbaugh, and Coulter. They don’t care about facts; it’s all about profiting from selling an emotion-infected ideology regardless of how harmful that ideology is to our democratic republic, as is being well demonstrated with Trump’s juvenile wall episode.
1
In my mind, this survey absolutely points out that the Wall is just a metaphor for Trump. Most of his supporters really don’t feel that threatened by a horde of Hispanics attacking like red ants from across the border... they probably had never given the border an afterthought before Trump riled them up about the issue. It is all about them being able to thumb their noses at HRC, at those they feel have wronged them and basically tell the rest of us that the rules of conduct in a democratic, small d, society really don’t apply to them.
Looks like Trump will be impeached by the House much sooner than we expected. That would be wonderful news. The Trump administration—if you want to call it an administration—has been a heinous failure, not just because he most assuredly colluded with Russian but because he hasn’t the foggiest idea of how to be a president. The American public has suffered greatly under his erratic behavior and constant lying and the majority of us want him gone as soon as possible. Gone!
He should consider resigning if he wants to salvage a gram of dignity.
Trump will maintain his base to the end. But no one else. If Dems smart ( something we can hope for), 2020 could be better than 2018
Pretty sad to me that keeping Appalachia and the Deep South happy is Trump’s goal. The majority of people do not want this approach to immigration control, but so what? Big Orange does, his base does, so off we go.
I would like to know who the seven (Republican of course) legislators were who voted against back pay for workers affected by this shutdown. Those seven are the worst of the worst. The vote was 411-7.
1
Trump has made the wall and our very government a referendum on democracy vs. fascism. So if you value democracy, it's really difficult to support Trump in anything, as it's clear that the anti-democracy forces already have a rather terrifying foothood in the Congress and maybe the Courts
Those who hope that Trump can overthrow what it left of our participatory democracy and rise to have dictatorial power want Trump to get everything he demands, regardless of the cost.
1
The American people being ever stuck with Trump is what Trump wants and he got himself on the big stage were that is not going to happen:
Humpty Trumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Trumpty had a great fall;
All the king's horses and all the king's men
Couldn't put Trumpty together again.
When in the past one of the messes that Trump has stirred up in self service to himself at the expense of others starts to cost him more than it is worth, Trump has simply turned on to other opportunities for exploitation. As Trump has moved on in taking advantage of others and time has faded notice of such past ill doings the matters have been quietly settled with Trump content in having no recollection of them at all. But Trump has now wormed, squirmed and finagled his way to the tip of the top of the heap and there is no place to go but down, down, down.
Trump was not elected on his personal charm. He was elected because his voters a) hated Hillary Clinton, b) felt like a newcomer to politics could shake up the system and perhaps restore the promised manufacturing base, and c) because of hatred of immigrants and minorities. In 2020 he will no longer have a and b. That only leaves c, and racism and hatred don't seem to be winning qualities.
"THE WALL" is the only thing Trump has going for himself, lately.
As to the notion that Border Patrol supports him, it's a likely guess the Border Patrol bossess didn't choose any workers to the Trump photo shoots who disagree with Trump's distortion of reality. And those present, who are skeptical, were composed enough not voice any doubts-- would Trump have asked, anyhow?
Willing to throw government workers under the bus of this shutdown to satisfy his own ego, i.e. feel the affirmation of his far right propagandists, Trump's not willing to own the shutdown he initially said he would own.
Trump, you're a "simpering whimp," to borrow a line from Clint Eastwood.
Trump is not realized without his supporters. They are lost, empty and in a void. They live and die in hope that they will be realized in Trump and he in them. They are not ready to face up to the situation of no independent existence - the idea that one individual or group is superior and the whole thing is created for ones use. The totality of any situation demands no separate existence of ones own. Nobody special ……. it's just words, words, words.
The media continue to make the same mistake here as they did in 2016.
They mainly focus on the president's lies and then spend their time debunking them.
Debunking lies spread by politicians is part of serious journalism, but with a pathologically, relentlessly lying president, we're in totally new waters here, and that requires a new approach - and urgently so!
That's because by debunking lies, you STILL allow the liar to frame the debate, which systematically takes the oxygen out of other, potentially more relevant issues that "we the people" should be debating about.
Today, thanks to another Trump tweet we know that Pelosi said "NO" to a wall - no agreement to a wall during a shutdown, and no compromise on it once Trump opens the government again.
WHY is she doing this?
For extremely important reasons, that have NOTHING to do with the wall in itself, and everything with the shutdown.
If you don't repeat those reasons at least as often as you repeat info about the wall itself, you contribute to systematically distorting people's perception of what is truly happening.
Those reasons are:
- accepting to negotiate new law X when a political party refuses to pass the next bipartisan appropriation bill, which funds the implementation of already existing law, UNDERMINES that implementation, which is unacceptable and threatens our safety.
- to destroy this mechanism, you HAVE to show that it makes X toxic and will no longer be integrated in ANY future compromise.
I find it confounding that anyone would think the Dems would fund Individual 1’s campaign promise, especially given that the only “evidence” for it is lies and fear-mongering.
Did ANYONE think the GOP was going to fund the ACA after they won midterms running against it?
Did ANYONE think Obama should have shut down the government over the ACA?
The right seems bizarrely incapable of thinking through the consequences of their actions.
To understand why Trump's ratings stay where they are despite his shambolic governing style is important to look inside the minds of his supporters; they are not the monolithic block that we often take them for. Dr. Bobby Azarian wrote a great article to this effect in Psychology Today breaking them down into 14 categories; "A Complete Psychological Analysis of Trump's Support".
"In all fairness, we should recognize that lying is sadly not uncommon for politicians on both sides of the political aisle, but the frequency and magnitude of the current president’s lies should have us all wondering why they haven’t destroyed his political career, and instead perhaps strengthened it. Similarly, we should be asking why his inflammatory rhetoric and numerous scandals haven’t sunk him. We are talking about a man who was caught on tape saying, “When you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the p____.” Politically surviving that video is not normal, or anything close to it, and such a revelation would likely have been the end of Barack Obama or George Bush had it surfaced weeks before the election."
Unless you can come up with your own 14 reasons why Trump supporters will follow him over the cliff (and take the country with them), I suggest you give this article a read. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/mind-in-the-machine/201812/complete-psychological-analysis-trumps-support?fbclid=IwAR1-wT_6BgoQbzi2CjZPLrjDuOpD-YxounTMR_sd_GJOnHZqeSn5N3NjQDY
1
If Democracy is supposed to reflect the will of the majority of the people, how is it that the county is being held hostage by 35% of the electorate?
How is it that Republican candidates for president have taken the presidency when they lost the majority of the popular vote?
Every time that has happened the nation has paid a tremendous price in blood and treasure (think George W. and Iraq; think Donald Trump on just about any topic).
Trump may be an ignoramus when it comes to governing or any policy issue, but he's smart enough to know that without those die-hard fans at his rallies he is toast.
He needs to go, and I am so looking forward to the day when I hear from a talking head on MSNBC: "With the resounding defeat of Donald Trump for a second term our long national nightmare is finally over."
1
I can imagine trump creating a new reality show instead of dwelling on the construction of a wall.....if those desperate men, women and children fleeing their various countries to seek salvation and immigrant status in the US manage to survive the harsh environmental conditions and arrive at the border alive they would be granted temporary asylum, given a stack of cash and welcomed and celebrated .... if someone posed it to him like that.....
The mid-term election was clearly a referendum on Trump and his policies. The American electorate voted against them. The conclusion from this is that there isn't enough support in Congress because there isn't enough support from the people. The people... remember them? This point doesn't seem to register with Trump. He still thinks that because his core supporters want something, the will of the majority should be ignored.
Wake up, Donnie! You don't have the support of the majority for your policies. Enough with your temper tantrums already. Stop trying to obstruct the will of the people. Get over the idea that it's all about you. It's not! The voters have sent you a clear, unmistakable message: no wall. Stop hurting people who work for the government just because you can't have it your way. Grow up, would you. Sheesh!
I decades ago have always wondered how it was possible that a whole people, Germany during the third Reich, supported a person that promoted genocide.
Today I look at America and see a people (at least 40%) that support whatever Trump does. I am convinced that these 40% would support him if he promoted some sort of genocide.
That Trump provoked the shutdown to harm Americans is impossible to not acknowledge. While the GOP had a majority the negotiator in chief did not want the government to stay open. So he opted to delay a compromise until it gets harder - when Democrats are in control. What more proof is needed that Trump wants to harm us? Yet 40% are supportive.
I still have no answer to my wonder decades ago, but I now experience it on my own.
2
Identity politics, rather than debate on the issues, is what fuels the Trump base. They like him because he teases Democrats. (Teasing is a form of sadism). He's got a reactive (not proactive) answer for everything, which his base copies off of him and plagiarizes as he copies it from frumpy Steve Bannon and the notorious racist, Steve King of Iowa's 4th. Trump's base identify with his frustrations and refuse to consider that those frustrations stem from the consequences of a life of poorly thought out decisions. Just as Mr. Trump parades himself as entitled to do things just because he has imperial rights as president, so the base finds it very unfair that the (mostly white people) are being treated equally by a system of decisions and consequences called real life. If Trump's base loses support for him, they would simultaneously be committing "Identity-Suicide." We can expect they will, at some point, have to admit defeat, and when they do, it will be a mass kamikaze. Sixty-three million Americans hitting their heads on a wall in lock step.
He is making America the laughingstock of the world. Republicans have handed over the keys to the car, the house, and what not and folded in the most embarrasing way. Its evident from accross the Atlantic that they have no more concerne for yhe American people and constitution than they have for the size of their egoes and their seats.
Who cares anout his polling smong republicans. Those who still identify as republicans must be a very very small fraction of the electorate. The only interesting poll question how he fares among the general public.
Trump is taking down the foundations of government every day he holds the office. What drives and directs him is beyond comprehension and what does it even matte any more. He does not care about the constitution or have the needs of US citizens close to heart.
Put him on a bus. Come on.
1
Ah, I think that was the whole point? Coulter's tweet threat to Trump only concerned The Loss of His Base.
That is all Trump has and it's loss would be a disaster for him politically. He needs his base and Coulter made it clear no wall, no base support. They would defect in droves.
A scared Trump immediately switched his vote on the continuing resolution.
Since then, Trump has scrambled every day to stay on message for His Base. I am strong, hear me roar, I will get that wall For You.
Never mind that Trump did nothing about the wall in 2017 and 2018 when the GOP was in total control of DC. He was not interested in the issue then or now. It's about His Base.
This is a cynical political stunt by Trump to keep his core rally supporters chanting for him.
I’ve been watching the 538 ratings on Trump as well. Day by day - lately - they’re inching further apart.
I appreciate knowing via NY Times “Nate” that 538 “Nate’s” ratings on Trump approval/disapproval are tracking together - except further apart on the wall than on his personal ratings.
That suggests to me that possibly the wall may be changing peoples’ hearts, that possibly events, more and more, are showing them the heartlessness, cruelty, sadism of a sociopathic man with a long criminal history (which, till now, has never been closely monitored by law enforcement),
Yes, some will stick with Trump no matter what. And I wish I knew if his “base” is the part of our society that hoards guns.
At the same time, I am heartened that the FBI considers Trump to be a Trojan Horse. That the are busily engaged in going over every inch of that horse. That just these past few days, they seem to be releasing enough enough information - bit by bit - so that those of us who do not constitute his base are prepared, even bolstered and energized for the battle that’s coming: Impeachment, Indictment and, let us hope a righting of the Ship of State.
Stay strong, America! Keep to the Golden Rule. Each one of us is no better than any other. And Freedom of each of us depends upon the Compassion and Respect for each of us. Each. One. Upon this Planet!
Trump is misled by his own shortage of reason. That is a proven paucity of Trump’s in everything he touches. He is grinding his poll numbers down over an issue only his equally dense base supports.
1
A new border wall with Mexico is just a powerful symbol of racial hatred by Trump and his supporters telling the world that dark skinned people aren’t welcome in America. Most illegal immigrants come in legally by plane and overstay their visas. And the majority of those “illegals” are Canadiens. Yet we don’t see a hysterical wailing for a wall across our Northern border. The way our country is acting under Trump I wouldn’t blame the Canadiens if they built a wall to keep us out.
Trump is not acting in the best interest of the US. He has shut down government as a ploy to get whatever he wants. He is not bargaining in good faith. Every action he has taken since becoming president can only be explained if he is acting as an agent of a foreign government namely Russia and acting to line his own pockets and those of his family and sycophants. Putin has taught him well. It’s time to take our country back and invoke the 25th amendment.
There is a reason that use of E-Verify is voluntary: Undocumented workers are a large essential part of our economy. They come when we want them, go home when we don't. They aren't entitled to government benefits. They do jobs so arduous that we won't or can't do them. Business owners, who skew heavily Republican, know this even while they loudly support our president's wall.
Undocumented immigrants commit fewer crimes than we do. If they are using bogus social security numbers, as many do, they will never get the benefit of social security and income taxes withheld from their wages.
Our national attitude toward undocumented immigrants is pure racism, right out of "In the Heat of the Night". That's what this is really about, and it is disgusting.
1
Why isn’t the NYT coming out with an article about the Senate and the veto. Seems the easiest way to solve the shutdown. It would also clarify the larger issue that GOP would rather play politics than govern a nation.
1
People think Trump will win again in 2020 if he keeps faith with his base. His base is Putin.
I wonder if an additional map from the one you used to show support for the Wall would be better illustrate the support or lack of support? Could you also show the support with a map of the congressional districts that are Republican or Democrat? Particularly along the border with Mexico?
Stop obsessing with _his_ base. Worry about your base and do great things. If they want to join the party, welcome. Otherwise let them eat their own.
Donald Trump is now the most effective Russian asset that the KGB has ever had. (Look at the evidence; is there any reasonable doubt that he’s a Russian asset (not an agent, to dumb and narcissistic for that).) He has done more to erode US democracy, weaken government institutions, destabilize the US economy, erode international alliances, weaken human rights, and hurt US citizens than I would have thought possible. There are excellent reasons why Putin wanted him elected but I doubt he could have hoped that Trump would be so successful. Remember, that when you say you want the Democrats to compromise you are asking them to compromise with a president put in place in no small part by a hostile government who have been manipulating him for years.
Trump IS the wall, and the wall, due to Trump's legal and moral issues, is crumbling, thank God.
Do we need a wall around the White House and Trump golf courses and residences to protect us from Russian infiltration? Currently Trump has more influence and presents a greater danger to our country.
I believe the Democrats should give in and give Trump his wall funding. First, it would get the government back working. Second, he has not spent the money he was given last year, so not much risk in the money getting spent. Third, It will entail a major battle of eminent domain to take land to build the wall, causing an outcry against the actuality of the wall versus the mere political hype of the wall.
Let Trump go down in flames with his 'victory'. If cannot actually build the wall due to eminent domain, and if he never builds the wall he will look like a fool. Let's dare Trump to build his wall and see what happens.
19
@John Dyer
And it would get the government back working for how many days ... ?
Because of course, once the Democrats accept the principle of attaching highly partisan new projects that only a minority in Congress supports, to appropriation bills (= bills that fund the implementation of already existing law), why would the GOP stop here?
The only way to show the GOP that Pelosi will NOT accept to have to systematically cave on items that can't get through Congress, just in order to make sure that the president continues to fulfill his constitutional duty to implement already existing laws, is to categorically refuse to engage in any negotiations as long as the government is shut down.
So this is no longer about a wall at all, you see?
IF Pelosi doesn't stand strong here, it's absolutely certain that for the next two years, there will be many times that TSA agents will not be paid.
NO democracy can survive when the Executive is being allowed to no longer implement existing law each time that Congress refuses to pass one of his campaign promises.
Congress IS independent from the WH, and has the constitutional right to NOT compromise on certain of its own campaign issues.
The GOP knows this perfectly well, as they've been CONSTANTLY refusing to engage in negotiations under Obama.
39
@John Dyer They absolutely not give him anything. In fact, their negotiating position should be $0 and the compromise should be 1.6 billion. Why? Because what's to stop him from doing this again? Stubbornness should not be rewarded and Democrats should show that they will not be cowed by the president's intransigence.
33
@John Dyer
Democrats did offer a compromise with wall funding (but DACA as well). It was turned down.
17
Is it not apparent that this guy is patently mentally ill?
Something is very wrong here. Why is he being permitted to remain in office, unless there are players involved who are not sitting at the table and decisions made which are not being shared with the public. It appears that there has been a treasonous take down of our government, and that key players are complicit... McConnell, Pence, Graham....
What's up?
1
What will his base think of him when he is exposed as a Russian agent, acting to destroy this country? And now, the 2,000 wacky things he has done, viewed through Putin’s imagined wish list, make perfect sense.
I despise Trump as a liar and a cheat and strongly believe he is unfit for the office, but I agree with him on one thing--and that is that a barrier at the southern border may help to reduce illegal human trafficking. Both parties have neglected to enact effective immigration control and now the Democrats seem to actually oppose it. It is ridiculous to pretend that walls or barriers cannot be one of many effective tools to reduce illegal entry to the US. No doubt it will be a relief to both parties if Trump does declare a national emergency and built it on his own--that is the only way that every Congressman can declare victory--all while having done nothing to improve the security of our borders which they all could have been doing for decades now but refused to act.
7
@stewart lands
1. The Democrats have ALWAYS supported a barrier at certain places. That's why half of the southern border has a barrier today in the first place.
2. Obama is the only president to have been able to get bipartisan comprehensive immigration reform through the Senate (and with a super-majority). It contained all the important, fact-based measures to increase border security. WHY is it still not signed into law five years later? Because the GOP House has refused to allow a vote on it.
3. Last spring, Democrats ACCEPTED to vote for a similar bill, PLUS full funding of the wall (as the GOP had won the last elections, they were willing to compromise). WHO flip-flopped at the very last moment? Trump. After Ann Coulter told him to reject ANY bill that contains DACA.
Conclusion:
1. The ONLY reason why for five years nothing has been done here, is because the GOP refuses to do anything.
2. The only reason why they shut down the government is because it allows them to spread the false message that Democrats would oppose real national security even more, and they need that message, NOT the wall, to fire up their base.
So either "we the people" start informing ourselves, and write or call the GOP to tell them to end the shutdown, or we believe their propaganda and then TSA agents won't be paid for a very long time.
31
@stewart lands
"Both parties have neglected to enact effective immigration control"
Illegal immigration is down 80% since 2000. Illegal immigration was lower in 2018 than any year since 1973. What amount of illegal immigration would satisfy you as "effective"?
The answer to that question cannot be Zero. Zero is never a realistic answer to any law enforcement question. We don't have zero murders or car crashes or robberies or fraud. Zero is too expensive, and requires a level of control no one is willing to tolerate.
TINIC: There Is No Immigration Crisis. The total number of asylum seekers last year was 97,000. You could give every one of them a ticket to the Superbowl in Dallas, if it were held there. The stadium would hold them.
Some 90% of the people here illegally entered legally and overstayed their visas.
Why build a stupid, ineffective wall to support a stupid, ineffective president? Tell him to come back with a check from Mexico.
14
Death throes of the GOP. They can follow Trump off a cliff or open their party up for serious debate and compromise. There will come a point when a critical number of conservative congress members will simply refuse to walk in lock step any more.
The "wall" is a joke. And the joke's on you.
Trump doesn't care about a wall. It was something he was told to say during his campaign. It's only purpose was to stir up fear and loathing among the angry red state villagers.
Now the "wall" is a diversion. It's not for the angry red state villagers. It's to give the media something to talk about instead of collusion, conspiracy and corruption.
I'm puzzled about this graphic. There appear to be three shades of purple on the map, but only two in the key explaining percentages. Also: was Wyoming overlooked?
1
How well would President Trump handle another outbreak of Ebola, or something of that magnitude, in the United States?
1
Why are we only talking about Mr Trump, why not about the Republican Party? They had two years with majorities in both houses to settle this.
In the present situation Mr. Trump has missed 3 opportunities to sign budgets into law that had sufficient votes from both parties.
In the present situation there are also several bills that passed in the house that the Republican Party refuses to vote on in the Senate. They know that there are 800,000 people in the country right now whose lives get destroyed, but they do not do their job. Where are the lawsuits against Mitch McConnell??????
1
Journalist Cohn: It's evident that the purpose of your "Upshot" column is to provide readers with a sense of the popularity of Trump's border wall with voters. On a different note, I believe Trump could easily remedy the Congressional boondoogle over his "Border Wall" by commissioning a bipartisan Congressional committee to study the type of solutions other countries have developed to protect their borders. For instance, I'll use Israel as an example, the US study group views the border secrutiy Israel has developed and installed to control terrorists from entering their country. It's no secret that many Iran and many terrorist organizations wish to destroy Israel. Should the Congressional group find that Isreal's solution accomplishes its task and may possibly be less expensive than building a wall, Trump would show he's open minded to a new idea that may possibly function in a superior manner and that he's willing to work with Congress.If such a thing is possible, though I doublt, it, he might come out smelling like a rose rather than a Trump.
What does the gray on N.C., Alaska, Kenntucky, and Wyoming mean? I wish the map were a bit better and told us this.
“Trump’s base” is synonymous with “ignorant bigots”. These are people who plainly do not understand the danger that Trump presents, are unable to think for themselves and are so far beyond redemption that they are a lost cause. It is astounding that Trump has any supporters at all and one only needs to see and talk to examples of those who continue to support him to see why they do. It’s impossible to mount an intelligent defense of Trump.
What I find most striking is that the support for the wall is largely concentrated in the Deep South. One hypothesis would be that Whites in the Deep South support the wall because they feel that they are engaged in a numbers race with Blacks, the result of which will determine their future political influence, status and white privilege. For Deep South Whites, stopping the influx of darker-skin immigrants through the southern border is a way to safeguard their superior numbers and insure the survival of their privileges over non-white Americans. The wall is thus part of the century-old racist battle to keep African-Americans down and in the minority, and Whites in the privileged majority. The wall is therefore simply the newest battleground of the Confederacy. I think this, in itself, is a very good reason to deny ANY funding for this racist and ill-intentioned 'Wall of the Confederacy'. After all, the Union is supposed to have won!
Reject Jim Crow, in all its forms!
If Trump’s base is so convinced that a security crisis exists on the Mexican border I suggest that they all volunteer to go down there and set up border patrols until a wall is built. It’s time they put their money where their idol’s mouth is.
Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth... Why would Comrade Trump wreak so much havoc on the American people and our government with such unreasonableness if he weren't an agent for an adversary who has long sought to destroy our democracy, thwart our influence world wide, and disruptively weaken our nation?
His rating will go up and he needs more drama and a deeper self made crisis. Why not try to impose Marshall law next, if the wall thing doesn’t work out, he’ll claim the illegals and terrorists are running rampant in the US because the Democrats won’t fund his wall. I’m sure his base and the GOP will go for that.
1
Trump said it himself -- he could "shoot someone on Fifth Ave ..." and we would stick by him. He's right. No politician has such a loyal following. He's our guy until the end.
The President’s ugly tweets and the inappropriate disrespectful talk of press secretary Sanders have enraged the American public and are destroying any respect any voter might feel for them.
The wall will never be popular with the bulk of Americans and shutting down the government for that reason alone will only lead the president to an earlier impeachment.
Trump knew his base. The earlier story in the Times about the wall originating as a mnemonic device was morphed by Trump to a nationalist and xenophobic symbol. Wall is one thing. Mexico is going to pay for it is another.
It became a story or a prophecy for true believers. Trump began his campaign in front of a paid audience saying Mexicans were rapists and murderers. Then comes the wall meme, then the shrugging off of fiscal responsibility attached to that wall.
It has changed physically and financially. The support is for Trump, the demagogue. He said his followers would still support him if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue.
There is no more an emergency on the border than there was cause for the GOP Great Ebola Panic.
This is a cult. Evangelicals are Trump's strongest supporters. This is about faith not reality, worship not politics. It is delusions of grandeur and smoke and mirrors and an audience wanting to believe in the stage magician's tricks.
Children in cages and prison tents, almost two and a half million federal workers and contractors and their families enduring hardship, people losing healthcare, a two trillion dollar addition to the national debt in two years, trade wars, strained alliances, badly damaged environment--so Trump and the GOP shut down the government and fell down the Trump rabbit hole of dysfunction over an imaginary ineffectual would-be wall that few Americans want.
Elect a lunatic and you get a madhouse.
The president says the shut down is still on because he hasn’t been able to “make a deal.” However he was offered several deals and turned them down. The truth is he Does NOT want a deal he wants his way only.. Pray God he doesn’t get it. The American people have grown to hate his wall more each day. It is time he caved!!
For two years Trump couldn't get his wall with a republican majority in the house and senate. Now that the Democrats have taken control of the house, he has decided to take a hostage (the American people) and is using the tactic of extortion in an effort to try to get his way. All of this while Mitch McConnell refuses to allow a vote that would end this shutdown as he hides like a coward. How could there be any question which party is responsible for bringing this pain upon the American people.
An extension of the headline is equally troubling:
As Trump Sticks With His Wall, He Stays Stuck in Place as President
1
The border wall may be popular with only Trump's supporters, but it's seen as necessary by millions of other Americans, too. Just a few years ago, all of the Dem leaders were calling for a wall or a fence. Its laughable to hear them now say border walls don't work. I don't even know what that means. Be honest. Now that Trump wants it, the wall is a symbol of evil. America needs a wall. Fund the wall and get the government back to work. Success is that easy here, but once again the Dem party shuts down the government for citizens of countries other than the United States. Treasonous.
I think it's pretty obvious to most everyone, but the most diehard Trump supporter that Donald Trump not only doesn't know how to negotiate and doesn't know anything about the art of the deal, but he more than anything, doesn't know what he is doing.
It is embarrassing to have such an incompetent windbag spew out gas everyday whether in person or on twitter, that is so obviously incompetent that he can't even function and what's worse is that his enablers like Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy are clueless.
We have a Dysfunctional President and Republican Congress, holding American hostage to their dysfunction.
NYT, please. The current WH inhabitant, as ignorant of the requirements of the role of president as he is on [insert juuust about anything beyond absorbing the love of his cult]. He has not now nor has he ever had ANY interest in governing, let alone governing for ALL citizens. His every move since he stumbled into office has been and ever will be driven by one of these things:
Visceral hatred of Obama and anything he did as President
His desperate substitution of his base for his daddy’s love
Positioning his base to become lifelong sources of revenue for his brand
Nothing else fires synapses in that brain.
What's not to understand that them country invading brownies are going to take most jobs away from hard working "real" Americans in 97+% lily white West Virginian?
2
The states that want the wall, are probably the states that illegal aliens won't move to anyway -- kinda ironic. (Excluding Texas)
Let Texans build and pay for a wall if they want a wall.
No one really focussed on whether we really should have a wall. There are reasons for having a wall, national security. Though it is not really known how effective the wall would actually be, does it work. Many people that should be kept out will find a way over or under the wall. At one time the democrats wanted a wall, Schumer wanted a wall as he voted for the wall in the past. Rational people,from both party’s know we need border security. Though the wall may not be the solution. Regardless the republicans want the wall to win, without knowing the wall is the solution. The demoocrats don’t want the wall because trump wants the wall. The cost of the wall is insignificant as taxpayers hundreds of billions a year on poorly run government programs. This is not the money. This is deep hatred between trump and the democrats and neither really cares about who is right. This is something that reasonable people Would solve. Democrats and Republicans both win if we employ people to work and aid in national security. There are many places to study the effects of a wall vs other solutions. Neither party wishes to do this. It’s just hatred that is driving decisions. Both extremes are sad and ridiculous. Trump, Pelosi and Schumer should all be shown the door. And yes those voters that are extreme, the people that enjoy and good fight are the cause. We vote for these irresponsible people because we like good tv. No corporation would hire or work with our elected morons.
1
Trump blared out loud on TV that the government shut down was his and his alone so why is he now blaming it on the Democrats?
The man ic crazy, doesn’t know what he thinks and what he is doing. He should not be president.
Remove that insane man from office. Use the 25th ammendamenti for sick presidents, call in some reputable psychiatrists and Jank him out of office before this crazy destroys our country.
Presumably BobMueller is still working on that charge... Mueller knows all....and MAGA...Mueller Ain't Going Anywhere.
Trump is just the escrescent lump, happy to be there but only what he is and nothing more - the malignancy is deep in the American political biome.
The Wall: A white elephant boondoggle. Forgetaboutit!
There seems to be many fake Facebook accounts on con artist Trumpy's page. How has FB not done a purge of all the faux accounts created by golf caddy, Dan Scavino so we truly can find out the truth of those posting on his FB page. You can see all the fake accounts supporting this stupid idea of a wall.
Just remember, Trump did not win, Hillary lost.
It all comes down to who the Democratic party nominates. My concern is the choose a person who wins 99% of California, NY, Illinois and Mass and the Republicans win 51% everywhere else. They can trade 1 million California votes for 10 000 Florida and Ohio votes and guarantee a win.
I now the electoral college is bad and blah blah blah. It's the rules of the game. That Trump understood that and Hillary didn't is mind boggling. But Hillary leadership couldn't be idiots that spent $1B and lost, it must be Facebook.
1
“it’s hard not to wonder whether, at least for now, support for the wall is simply a function of support for the president. In other words, attitudes about President Trump might drive attitudes about the wall, rather than the other way around.”
There we have it. The brainwashed 85% of Republicans, the “lock her up” chanters, are hard at work, mesmerized by a ventriloquist’s dummy regurgitating lines fed to him by an idiot interviewer, Hannity.
1
Trump nominated Mitch McConnel's wife to be a member of his Cabinet. Smart move by a con artist to protect his presidency. Her Cabinet position pays how much money? The tax cut charade put many more millions in both McConnell's pockets.
McConnell's fascist refusal to allow the Senate to vote on Bills passed by the House because his pseudo IDOL Trump tells him to refuse to schedule the vote.
The fascist rules of the Senate that allow McConnell to refuse to allow the Senate to vote because he was / is told by Trump that he, Trump will Veto the Bill, would thus enable the House and Senate to override Trump's negative stink by overriding the Veto is what our Constitution requires.
How many joined the military after 9 / 11, to fight in foreign to protect our freedoms and constitutional rights. McConnell spits on all their graves. Our Constitution is McConnell's toilet paper.
Members of Congress may vote to raise their pay via tax cut but the Congress cannot benefit until the next term. Did the Congress wait until the next term to start collecting their tax cut largesse?
McConnell is wilfully and knowingly violating the Constitution, purposely destroying James Madison's genius of checks and balances.
I don’t know any Trump supporters. Here on the left coast they’re rare. But, at this point, what with all his truth-distorting, tweeting, foreign-policy missteps, anddisarray among his cabinet secretaries, I think many a die-hard Trump supporter must support disarray (if not chaos, if not mayhem). But why? Would one of the people in the US who still supports this rather pathetic, empty-headed blow-hard please explain what it is you like about him? In advance, thanks.
My my, what a surprise. 30% of the country is bigoted and racist. They're not going to desert the biggest bigot and racist of them all.
Liberal minded people join groups like habitat for humanity, Doctors Without Borders, and various nature conservatory groups. Let Trump supporters buy back private property in Texas, and the build their own stupid wall. Put your money where your mouths are. We voted for these democrats, we voted for NO wall funding.
Trump will forever be known as a Putin Stooge!
Trump is the worst thing to happen to our democracy since Joseph McCarthy. His idiot economic adviser compares the furlough of federal workers to a vacation. Only if the vacation is when they repo your car or evict you from your apartment because you haven't been paid. I predict the dems will cave because the price of hurting so many people will become intolerable for them to watch. Never vote for a Republican again! They are traitors just like Trump!
Aside from the abhorrence and madness of the Trump presidency that we now confront, one thing that I thought plausible very early on was the possibility that Trump, not having any fixed idealism of his own, would swing wildly for the fences and actually negotiate something with the other side. Like a negotiated deal with Democrats on infrastructure, or one on DACA. But he won't, and I think it's because he can't. He is in bed with those masses who supported him and he refuses to betray them. He played the charlatan and is still in the role. No one really knows if he believes in anything. Just when he gets close to an agreement forces rein him in, a la Fox in this latest showdown. Thus the reason why he vacillates. If he could get past his masters he could surprise, cut a deal and with that, expand his base.
19
Putting aside Trump's base, a demographic group I will never understand, in order to "win" a shutdown, the public can't have your name on the tip of their tongue. As much as Trump keeps repeating the Nancy and Chuck line, Trump's absolute need to dominate news cycle after news cycle puts his name, or say his brand, out there 24/7--which, in turn, continually associates the shut down with him, both personally and politically. Whenever this ends, it will go down in the public's mind as the Trump shut-down.
One reason why the wall is unpopular is because of America's addiction to drugs, which the liberal opposition supports as evidenced by efforts to decriminalize drugs, which plays nicely into the hands of the cartels.
Trump could very well win again if the democrats nominate who they consider a "safe" and "moderate" democrat that plays left off the conservatives and doesn't set the tone and agenda.
They will too if they can help it, and you know the Times is going to do all they can to tar the progressive candidates that people want and that could usher in a new era of democratic dominance ala FDR.
The democratic establishment sees this next election as a gimme, and haven't seemed to learn any true lessons from 2016, instead "doubling down" on their "game changing" collaberation with the oligarchy.
1
Given that "the wall" isn't something real, but rather is whatever Trump states that it is at any give time, support for "the wall" necessarily tracks in line with support for Trump.
Some of the reasons why I don't believe in god or karma. People like McConnell and trump exist and prosper.
Democrats need to remind everyone that most people voted against Trump. Most Americans do not want the wall, as was evident in the midterms.
Give it another week or two and the pain will finally hit the red states, particularly within farming communities.
You may have noticed that the wall has become an object of derision for most Americans; a symbol of one man's ridiculous solution to a complex, multi-layered problem. It represents political sloganeering that most of us hate about campaigns. It is a symbol of intolerance; of bigotry. It "solves" a problem that exists as a national issue only in the minds of fearful, convicted Fox viewers and ditto heads. The House has passed funding for all of the branches of government currently under lock and key. Our Senate should follow suit. Administrative departments can be reopened, and negotiations with Mr. Trump over how border security can best be improved should begin. That is how a democracy works.
44
Map describes what we all suspect. Supporters of the wall mainly come from states where the majority believe immigrants will steal jobs from U.S. citizens.
Other states, with more robust economies, do not share this fear, and actually recognize that immigrants can help the economy.
There is a solution that satisfies both positions.
Allow border control and immigration policies to remain substantially the same.
Allow each state to vote for imposing significant civil and/or criminal penalties on persons who employ illegal immigrants.
Let's assume Alabama votes to impose criminal penalties, but California does not. I expect there would be few, if any jobs for immigrants in Alabama. Immigrants will then be induced to leave states of "no-employment" to states where there employment is not penalized.
Trump can declare victory to his base, because this solution will not just stop entry, but will encourage illegal immigrants to leave the red states that do not want them.
Time will tell who is right. And states who make a wrong decision can always vote to change their mind.
If this idiot wins re-election after what he has pulled, especially without winning a plurality of the vote again, it would so undermine what remaining faith there is in our democratic system that you will see real movement in intellectual circles to dissolve the union. The nation cannot continue to endure this discord.
1
Trump is basically democracy's version to what happened to Hitler.
Now before the few right wingers who read the NY Times condemn me for comparing Trump to Hitler, I am not doing that.
Trump is no Hitler, but he is clearly imo the greatest threat to democracy since the Civil War.
He was a charismatic ego maniac demagogue before the election just like Hitler, who promised everything to everybody ie make America great again, scapegoat anybody who was not pure American.
Now that people are seeing what Trump is, an ego maniac demagogue that they are tiring of, just like Hitler who destroyed his country, they are having second thoughts.
Once a demagogue, always a demagogue, Trump has no place to go but down. He only appeals to the bigots, naive people, ignorant people, people who are in despair.
Thank God for America, the above are in the minority.
1
As he pushes for a real wall to make America white again his lasting symbol of him, his administration and his ugly personality will be summed up in a Wall. A perfect symbol for what they represent in the world.
Democrats are all for border control. Real border control that entails a robust IT, well equipped personnel, and sensical barriers.
They are against the monument to racism, bigotry, and in the case to Trump, a very small manhood (Madam Pelosi’s words) that the wall will symbolize.
Trump’s base, most if not all of whom are Republican’s, plus his puppet master in the Kremlin, want a wall. So that they can tell their grandkids, “See that was the wall that Donald Trump built to keep the brown-skinned people out.”
But because Republicans do not believe in science, and math being an exact science, they do not know that statistics is screaming that in less than 50 years, people of color will now be the majority with the whites relegated as a minority. This is irreversible even if today, no people of color is admitted to the US and every white couple sires a dozen white kids. There is just no turning back.
Hey McConnell, Grassley, Hatch, and Graham and all you racists and bigots out there. Scary, isn’t it?
Even scarier? A stupid wall will not prevent this.
You will never get agreement with you for your bigoted description of “little Pelosi.” Trump
Is insane. Take your wall and your bug a boo with you below. The majority of Americans do not want this wall. If you have the cash pay for it for him. He is soooo poor. Why he would eat you alive!
Could it be that Trump IS a foreign agent and that his efforts are aimed at disrupting our democratic processes as much as possible? Or are there mega-construction firms that he owes a favor, and this wall project is just such a boondoggle? Or is he just a big inflato-baby who wants his way? Any or all of the above?
Trump is so stupid to not negotiate. I believe he is hellbent on the $5.6b wall so he can stay loyal to his base.....but his base is not large enough to re-elect him. I imagine we'll probably have another blue wave in 2020, thanks, in large part, to Trump's Shutdown which he has claimed to own.
1
Except S. Dakota, map of wall support tracks historic KKK strength.
As one would expect, the greatest support for “The Wall” is found in states with a substantial contingent of low income, poorly educated, backward rural whites - most of whom are about as likely to be affected by Latin Americans seeking asylum in the United States as they are to be the victims of Islamic terrorists - that is, about as likely as they are to win a $100 million lottery or be struck by lightning twice in one day.
Yessiree, I’d be scared silly if I lived in frigid South Dakota or mined-out West Virginny, where them thar illegal immigrants and Radical Islamic terrorists are all hangin’ their hats. Somebody ought to tell these folks they’re the only ones demented enough to live in those godforsaken parts of the United States. No self-respecting Islamic terrorist would be caught dead there. But them sodbusters and hillbillies might wanna worry about a real threat, like the danged Commies sleepin’ under their beds, fer instance...
Why are we here? Trump has been a bankrupt liar for decades. We have only learned that 40% of Americans can be easily conned. Evangelicals, old white people, dogma junkies and morons. And now America has fallen from grace internationally. Everything he does destroys life and liberty. All Americans should be embarrassed at this mistake. So correct it! Amend the Constitution to reduce Executive power and interference. Recognise sycophant Senators and Congressmen and unelect them. Make sure any candidate running to lead their political party is mentally competent by medical examination. Trump has shown us the weakness in our political system. Learn from it. Change it. Advance, and stop frightening the world.
Even if Trump never builds his wall, if he never opens a single coal mine or steel mill, if he never keeps any of his ludicrous campaign promises, his base will continue to support him.
Why? Because he hates the same people they do and he, unlike they, is unafraid to admit it. He thinks the way they do — the college degree his father bought be damned, he is a profoundly ignorant and stupid man — and he embodies all their fantasies of what lifestyles of the rich and famous are. He grabs women by their felines any time he wants — and they love it because he's a studly superstar; he has mansions with tacky gold-plated plumbing fixtures; he's one of the richest men in the world and can tell people off with impunity, the way they will tell their bosses to take this job and shove it when they hit the lottery. Which they will, any week now.
Trump will never move the needle beyond 40% and probably will begin to lose the support of more cynical and pragmatic supporters. But it's unlikely that the sort of person we think of as a typical Trumpster could be dissuaded by Mueller's findings, Trump shooting someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue (especially if the victim is a different color), or anything else.
Trying to convert them is hopeless. We must outvote them.
The neediest, most immature moron to ever hold the office; the most spineless group of sleazy republicans to ever wallow in a swamp... And yet, 35% of the population likes what they see.
How did Donald Trump Con the Media and the American People? Wake up!
American people please listen carefully to this podcast (published on Jan 8, 2019) and forward it to your social networks, your senate and congress representatives, family members, neighbors and friends, if you care for the integrity of your country. Stand up for your rights.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fluk10pfk&list=PL5gNz_FycX94Bw3-a67-4RyFfMNwRp3Uf
"His ratings" is an odd choice for this headline. Historically, a presidential approval rate has not been referred to with the same terminology as, say, a reality TV show's viewership statistics per Nielsen, right?
To me it reeks of editors being sucked into his game, willingly or not, of turning government into the artificially drama-infused dumbing down of our culture that network TV has thrived on for decades, and democracy into an appeal to the lowest common denominator.
I think at this point if a journalistic medium isn't against that process in every action, including deliberation over the semantic baggage of the words in its headlines - the true "lede" and often the only part of a story anyone in our twitterized culture bothers reading - then it is guilty of collusion and should be held to task.
Is it accurate to say that the 41% favorable poll represents Trump's so-called "base?" If so, then we're truly going to H*ll in a Handbasket.
Donald Trump is using this whole thing as a distraction from the news about actual collision between his campaign chairman and Russian intelligence services.
And of course the news media, including this fine outlet, play right along, merrily dancing to his tune.
The so called president is a Russian asset. That needs to be the headline every single day until he is gone.
According to articles on this GoFundMe site to build the wall, 340,000 people have donated $20.4 million dollars. These misbegottens represent the hard core of Trump's base.
At this point, Trump is irrelevant. The only important issue to understand is the psyche of his supporters. Are there enough out there for a re-elect?
1
Where is Mitch McConnell? The Republicans did take an oath to the Constitution And an oath to represent the people.
Not Trump.
This is major betrayal of the people and dereliction of duty.
They should quit .
2
Trump's only goal since the beginning has been to feed his ego, but many conservatives forgot their objectives and now equate supporting Trump with pushing for their goals. That is a crucial mistake.
"Fanaticism consists in redoubling your effort when you have forgotten your aim." - George Santayana
The shutdown, if it continues much longer, is going to have quite a detrimental affect on our economy. As a piece in yesterday's paper suggests, the finances of millions of people, not merely thousands, are directly affected by the shutdown: government workers, contractors and their employees, and many small businesses that rely on their traffic. This, plus the pressure on farmers and small manufacturers that the administration's tariffs have produced . . . I don't see how voters are going to forget Trump's incompetence.
1
I am not a fan of a border wall or of Trump, but one thing that made no sense is the statistics about how heroin comes into the country. They say most heroin comes though Mexico, but most comes through legal ports of entry..I believe that that is where they are catching most of the people trying to bring it in because they do not know about the places that they are driving it across along with human trafficking. Where are all the trucks with women and children driving across? It certainly is not the border, and it IS happening...
The trouble is, he never had a lot of support, and squeaked in anyway: this could happen again with the continued support of his loyal base, and the connivance establishment powers that support him for their own reasons. His wall issue isn't gaining him any support, but he isn't losing any either.
The real risk is that he will continue to whip up crises and emergencies: that's how he thrives. And the "mainstream" Republicans will go along with him again, for fear of a Democratic president. We have to remember the level of hysterical opposition against very ordinary figures like Obama and Clinton: imagine how crazy they will go if a slightly controversial figure like Warren gets the nomination.
Interesting to see how none of the border states support a wall - not only states situated at the southern border, but states across the country that have at least one border that is either a natural (sea) or that of another country.
1
Trump would have no support left at all if he loses his base. Given the looming hearings and Mueller report, he needs all the vociferous allies he can get. Hence his stubborn refusal to do what is right.
1
There are no clean hands in Washington DC in regards to Immigration Policy. When will the electorate demand that comprehensive solutions be forged.
It is ridiculous to hold millions of the undocumented hostage as bargaining chips in political fights. It is telling that neither side is willing to make the tough decisions for creating long term fixes. e-Verify, Visa overstay reform, amnesty, path to citizenship, HB1 visa reform are all parts of the whole of immigration reform.
How do we hold our elected office holders to account? How’s do we refocus the government on creating real solutions to real problems? We have become like Pavlov’s dogs running thoughtlessly to the clang of the partisan bell...time is now for change. Comprehensive immigration reform is needed now...and there is plenty of compromise to be found.
2
85% of Republicans and 50% of Independents want the wall. That is certainly not his base.
1
How about we try to appease Donald by giving him a portion of what he asks for? Say 2 Billion dollars and say, “Show us what you can do with it?” If he can make a noticeable affect on our immigration policy with 1/2 of it tell him we’ll give him the remaining balance. But if not? He has to move on to more pressing issues like climate change, healthcare and gun control. Deal?
1
Mitch McConnel is to blame for the shutdown! When I was in high school, college too, what did I learn? I learned that the House proposes spending, the Senate agrees or disagrees, if agrees, sends it to the President to sign. If the President disagrees it goes back to the Senate. McConnel says he won’t send anything on unless he knows in advance the President will sign it. He wants the wall and the shutdown. There are probably enough votes in the Senate right now to send the House legislation without the “wall” to Trump to sign or veto. If he vetos and the bill goes back to the Senate, how many Senators would have the backbone to stand up and vote to sustain the veto? They would probably break ranks to not be accused of the sole responsibility for keeping the government shut down. Trump would be defeated, the government would reopen and McConnel knows that . Put the blame for the shutdown where it belongs!
1
Trump ran his campaign on building a wall and border security. He was subsequently elected President. Now he is attempting to fulfill his promises and everyone is shocked.
I suppose it is shocking to Democrats that a politician would actually do what they said they would!
For the "progressives" who think this is a losing issue for Trump, I have news. It's not. He wins whether he gives in or holds out. If he wins his base is rapturous. If he gives he, he says he put up the good fight and guess what? keeps his base in place.
Right now the Dems are looking just as bad as Trump. Both parties are using the economy as a pawn in a war of orthodoxies. Boy, an orthodoxy War! Not good. Not good for America.
1
I think people give Trump way too much credit for trying to subvert democratic government.
The explanation is much simpler: the man is cracked.
I wonder if we're seeing the end of the Republican Party? There are plenty of young conservative senators who are interested in compromising, but McConnell and Graham are strangling their voices. The idea that the party should at all times function in lock step is draining the life (and the intelligence) out of the party.
A Politico poll this month finds that 79% of registered voters consider illegal immigration to be a problem.
Quite possibly a significant percent prefer a national, mandatory E-Verify to the wall, since it would be much cheaper, quicker to implement, and would catch visa overstayers, who are close to half of illegal immigrants.
But it's obvious that open borders, the de facto position of the Democratic leadership, is not going to help Democrats win back the White House. (I've had in person conversations with Elizabeth Warren and Reps Seth Moulton and Catherine Clark on this topic.)
In a NYT op-ed, Harvard's George Borjas came up with what seems to me a good compromise on immigration, which should be required reading for the Dem leadership as well as Democratic presidential candidates. Here it is:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/opinion/trump-immigration-dreamers.html?em_pos=small&emc=edit_ty_20180202&nl=opinion-today&nl_art=9&nlid=18182451&ref=headline&te=1
1
If we somehow manage to survive the "real" crisis -- that of Trump's disastrous presidency -- we have got to figure out how to educate the folks in SD, OK, AL, WV, and the lavender states on Cohn's map. We have allowed public education to languish under blatantly malicious Republican policies and spectacularly clueless billionaire interventions. Our middle schools need history and civics classes, critical thinking classes, biology classes (so the threats to human life of climate change are understood) and, yes, job training to prepare students for meaningful work in a diverse society. We cannot allow 35% of our electorate to languish in ignorance and drag the nation into chaos and lunacy.
Not long ago, DT screamed he would "shut down the border" and a few reporters asked an obvious question: then why do we need a wall? We haven't heard anything about "shut down the border" since. Why? It's worse to shut the border than spend who knows how much for a wall? If shutting down the border is more effective, then why doesn't someone tell DT to do it, save the money and stop this impasse? In short, dare him? Or...does he need this partial shut down for another reason?
In 1932 out of touch GOP Smoot and Hawley stirred up trouble by lying to congress that America needed tariffs . We were being cheated . Well all our allies got angry , the farmers in the US and millions of Americans. Those two out of touch GOP were kicked out of congress the next year. Now 2018 Trump doing the same failed policies the only right thing to do is kick him out of office and jail him for collusion, not paying back taxes on off shore accounts for decades and I am sure his families bank accounts need to be looked into. Lock them all up . I have been paying my taxes for over 50 years why is he so special.
1
In other words, despite of unpopularity of the Govt. Shutdown, Trump’s popularity remains unchanged.
At this point, who would want to join team Trump? He’s unstable and highly likely to throw to throw you under the bus. The people who are still currently Trump supporters are personally invested in him so have been willfully overlooking his flaws, but deep down I know a lot of them regret their choice. All they need is a way out that allows them so save face. A Mitt Romney or John Kasich presidential run declaration will end Trump’s support and his presidency.
Trump will always have loyal MAGAnista followers who would believe the Moon was made of cheese if The Donald said so. Moderate Republicans have left the MAGA camp recently as mounting evidence shows Trump colluded with Russia and he obstructed justice by firing the AG Comey.
Trump will always garner this 30-32% of any polled audience since that is the size of MAGA. Will they cleave from Trump as his lies become more obvious. Likely not. Will they abandon him if he's impeached, some will but most will not since Nixon held 22% approval after resigning from office.
So at thsi point, I could care less what Trump does. He's flailing about in the desperate last throes of his "reality TV tenure" and will soon be skewered by Mueller's special investigation.
Mueller is taking his time for good reason. If he'd released his findings earlier, the GOP-led Congress would have buried the report. Now that Mueller's findings are dribbled out by a stream of indictments and sentencing documents, even GOP Senators and House members will soon abandon any loyalty to Trump for political self-preservation. Those who stick with Trump too long risk losing re-election in 2020 in the Blue Tsunami Part II.
Democrats have all the cards and Trump has the Shutdown, so why would they also give him a wall?
The Wall would boost his presidency - he needs it, so it's the last thing we need. If he gets it, his reputation as a dealmaker will soar but if not, no wall is no Trump.
I'd like an estimate by Mr. Cohn of the number of red votes that Trump loses every day. That's what will cause Trump to fold.
This Wall is Trump's Waterloo.
Is the shutdown really about a wall? Or is the wall an excuse for a shutdown? It’s clear this administration’s primary goal is to destroy the federal government as we know it, beginning with firing Christie and the failure of the transition (see Michael Lewis’ The Fifth Risk).
If he gets his wall funding, he could very well shut the government down within 24 hours on another bogus pretext. The wall is just an excuse.
1
America was supposed to place a wall between state and church. Trump seemingly tore down that wall. Moreover, he has built a wall between reason and irrational behavior which is what polls show!
The issue is border security.
While the Democrats put forth the ridiculous argument that we shall have no walls, only fences, the public just shakes their head.
Schumer obviously did not study engineering, and his finger painting degree is not of much help.
Schumer seems to believe that one can only place cameras and sensors and other electronics on a fence. A wall would not be a feasible spot for such sundries. He says the word "electronics" as if it is some new form of magic that someone just invented.
Wall, fence, six of one, half dozen of the other. To believe that we would need the exact same engineering solution for a widely varying terrain is also not exactly reality.
Trump should just cave in and agree that we will only have fences. Perhaps similar the one Jim Acosta visited where he remarked how tranquil everything was.
3
OTOH his support isn't declining much, either. Which has to worry Democrats a little bit.
If Mueller reports some evidence-backed "high crime or misdemeanor" committed by Trump -- after he took office, when he was running for President, or in between -- his support will vanish quickly; he'll be impeached and removed from office.
But if Mueller's report just leaves us where we are today, the Democratic Party will remove Trump only if it wins in 2020. Nancy Pelosi's point is that that election should be the DP's focus. I agree entirely (though winning the 2020 election won't be necessary if Mueller comes up with some evidence of Russia/Trump collusion).
Trump is likely to get the votes of nearly everyone who voted for him in 2016. As many of his critics predict, some 2016 Trump voters will jump ship, but I expect that number will be small.
The question will be whether Trump can add votes. Right now, it appears to me that he can. Many NYT commenters are patting themselves on the back for witty remarks about Trump, but witty remarks don't count as votes; votes do.
To my knowledge, there has never before been a president who seemed content to be popular with only around 40% of the American public. Every other president at least attempted at times to move towards the political center to gain some support with the general public. Trump has never done that.
The only possible explanations for this can be:
A) Trump doesn't really want the job, and doesn't care if he loses in 2020.
B) Trump believes the 2020 election will play out exactly as the 2016 election did, with him squeaking out a win in three key states with under 80,000 votes combined. (And if that's his strategy, it's a pretty reckless one.)
C) Trump plans on simply nullifying the election results if he loses, claiming vast voter fraud, and declaring a state of emergency.
D) Trump is convinced that the Russians will come to the rescue again.
Whichever of these possibilities is correct, it's clear we don't have a normal president who plans on trying to unite all Americans behind a popular agenda that will receive majority support.
And that, in turn, means that government of the people, by the people and for the people means nothing to this con-man demagogue.
I would have hoped that supporters of the wall would read the histories about the effects walls have had on other countries. But, encouraging these supporters to critically think is like administering medicine to the dead.
A larger percentage of people believe that Trump lies all the time. That makes it harder for Trump to convince the independent voters. So, Trump will not have a second term.
Trump can blame whoever he wants but if you look at the handy graphs that show how long the shutdowns were, you’ll notice that there is always a president on top, and only a president. This will never be referred to as the Chuck and Nancy shutdown of ‘18-‘19.
1
If Trump's base is so loyal then why did a Democratic majority House of Representatives assume power this month? Why did Democrats gain seven governor seats in the midterms, and why did 372 state legislative seats across the country go from Republican to Democratic? The midterms indicated that there is now the faint hope that the crazy train of American politics over the past two years may be slowing to a more sensible pace, and that Americans seem to have decided that a split Congress with its attendant gridlock is preferable to allowing Trump to run rampant for two more years. This would seem to indicate cracks in Trump's support that may just widen a 2020 approaches. The shutdown and Trump's unwillingness to demonstrate leadership and his inability to make a deal, or even negotiate in good faith, could continue to erode his support for all but the most unrepentent MAGA-heads.
Coincidentally, after reading this piece, happened to walk into the kitchen where a creditable cover of Pete Seeger's "Waist Deep in the Big Muddy" was being played on radio.
Comments to Mr S's rendering of it on YouTube (link below), dashed my ill considered hope that I may have been the first to have associated PT with the captain of the song. Oh, well.
However valid the association, there are huge differences between the U.S. - and the world to a considerable degree - at this moment in history (could Mr S have been prescient?).
The platoon was following orders. PT supporters eagerly support him and experience schadenfreude at the rest of us being dragged along with them.
The platoon made it out. The only real casualty was the captain himself. Whatever may happen to PT, gonna take God knows how long for the country and the world to right themselves, if at all. And at huge costs of every kind.
The media needs to focus on stories showing what will erode trump's support with his base. So far, reality hasn't worked. My thought is that the trump support base mostly hates the government so much that a) they want to destroy it and/or b) they are willing to buy the t.v. persona as more real than what is real.
1
Whether the wall is concrete or steel
Doesn’t change how indifferent I feel
Its actual meaning
And the way I’m leaning
Is that it’s Donald’s Achilles’ heel
Funny. No one has asked me how I feel. My friends and neighbors haven’t been asked either. Makes one wonder who these pollsters are reaching out to and what their agenda is?
We strongly support our President and strongly support building a Wall.
Let’s Make America Great Again!
Looking at MI, OH, and PA, northern states and were significant electoral college wins for trump, their desire for a Wall is in the high 40%. Perhaps rust belt economics wasnt a primary issue....oh, yeah, studies over the past year have already proven the non-economic reasons for MAGA folks.
This situation more and more makes me think that it is analogous to a hostage situation. The president won't release the 800,000 workers until the country delivers him 5+ billion dollars.
1
Trump's shutdown is to distract from the Dem House takeover and a dozen or more huge trump scandals. It's just the right thing for him to distract indefinitely. Trump's trying to buy time, running out the clock. To what end? I think even he doesn't know, but this is his final, critical roll of the dice. But his luck ran out November 6.
1
We are finding out that Trump and his current crop of advisers are not politically savy after all. Crazy talk about immigration did not work for Republicans in the midterms and it is not working now. I am optimistic that Trump and company will tank so badly in the coming year that he will not even run in 2020, as he hates to lose.
The political scene seems remarkably stable this week-end. Sure the Russian bombshells about Trump are dropping out of the sky, but that is routine now; Mitch McConnell and Trumps's Republican allies in Congress are doing nothing for the country, and everything to keep their party from becoming totally irrelevant as usual; the Democratic leaders are rigidly placing ideology above progress. And meanwhile average Americans are pawns in the power struggle in DC while the rich just keep getting richer.
Trump's fans are also hit. This is a test on them. But they can blame it on the Democrats since they get their news from Trump.
However, people hit the hardest, those foregoing a paycheck from the government may seek employment elsewhere and this accomplishes the GOP goal of getting rid of or hollowing out government. No?
1
You glossed over an important FACT. Aside from NM, the states most impacted by the wall want it.
But with the midterms over, this (the wall) is now the central political challenge facing the president.”
Likely, the wall will be the central distraction until raising the debt ceiling in March and possibly the outcome Mueller investigation get closer.
Many say the GOP plan was to cut taxes/revenue (check), then scream expenses (other than military) and the debt are too high (in progress), then go after taxpayers’ earned benefits - Social Security and Medicare.
We must find a way to hold self-interested and self-enriching Elected Politicians, government officials, their staffers and operatives from both parties personally and financially liable, responsible and accountable for the lies and half-truths they have told US, their gross mismanagement of our county, our $22 T and growing national debt (106% of GDP), and our $80 T in future, unfunded liabilities they forced on US jeopardizing our economic and national security, while benefiting themselves, their staffers, their party and special interest donors.
1
Never overestimate statistics in politics about trump’s amphorus base.
He will be the loser he always was and in jail by 2024 or resting in peace.
His physical appearance and hair doo are looking worse by the week.
We are heading toward Marshall Law.
Trumpies in government are a desperate lot.
I will remain a republican in name only so if trump is miraculously primaried I can participate.
But when I vote 2020 it will be for last woman standing I hope. I don’t believe in either party.
Or the electoral college. Our system must have state by state uniformity and overhaul. And the two parties now vying for control and destroying our workers lives should be minimized by citizen voting pressure.
IMHO we r in for a wild decade.
Perhaps we must keep in mind that Trump's base are definitely under his hypnotic spell from which a few more but certainly not all may awake with the testimony of Michael Cohen and Mr. Mueller's report! The majority did not vote for Trump and his support has dwindled over time. If all the chaos since the Primaries have not caused concern for his supporters...well there's no hope for them! The administration is dysfunctional,the deficit has risen by trillions, and now even our own gov't employees are going without pay and we are without their services ! How it can be that the Worst President in American History still has any support from anyone much less the Republican Party makes no sense ! A recent commenter mentioned that Trump has exposed weaknesses in our system that can be exploited by someone with Trump's type of ideology and bullying ! That is so true.I do hope we as a nation can get over all this and recover. Thank goodness Michael Cohen plans to do the right thing.Thank goodness for Mr. Mueller ! Maybe they can lower the number of Trump's supporters even more as they realise they've been duped! Maybe?
What is impact on Democrats support? They are holding up an election promise from the President.
I wish the writer would stop pretending Trump's base is monolithic. Already, women, young evangelicals and union members have departed. In 2016, he had Jill Stein voters, Bernie voters, and anti-Hillary voters on his side. But, there is no reason to believe anyone in those groups will vote for him again.
His base simply is not the same in 2019 as it was in 2016.
Trump wants his wall because he wants his wall. He wants what he wants when he wants it, regardless of whether anyone else wants it, regardless of what it will cost, regardless of whom it will hurt.
I say deny him his wall, and pray that 2020 comes sooner than scheduled.
Then he can go back to his gilded walls in Florida, NYC, and wherever else he'd like.
As is said, "May God protect and keep the tzar . . . far away from us."
1
It's still astounding that 41% of the population still approve of Trump!
Note that two states closest to the Mexican border are the ones who only have a 35% approval for the Wall.
Even Arizona can only rustle up 50% and Texas 55% support for the Great Big Beautiful Wall (for which Mexico is supposed to pay).
What we really, really need is for unpaid Federal employees and contractors, en masse, to STOP working. TSA employees should just stop working without pay. Airline Pilots should stop flying planes that are out of compliance with FAA requirements. Did that had not been inspected should not be sold. What really, really needs to happen is for the entire country to screech to a complete halt. That is the only way McConnell and Trump are going to budge. Well, Trump won't, but that's what it's going to take for McConnell. See how the support numbers look then - I bet they'll drop like a rock, and even the most aren't supports of Individual 1 will be clamoring to their Republican Senators too forget about the wall and open the government back up. We are a soft, weak, fickle people. It won't take much of a pinch to set us squealing for relief.
I've noticed a conflation of "the wall" with "border security" in a lot of white house communication. I put it down to and intentional attempt to deceive through confusion. I wonder how that plays out with wall supporters. Do they have wall and security cross linked as synonyms concepts?
1
“Midterm exit poll data, election results, voter file data and pre-election polls indicate that the president’s approval rating is below 50 percent in states worth at least 317 electoral votes (270, [a simple majority,] are needed to win.). [There are 538 electoral college votes in total.]”
An obvious question is are his ratings as rigged as was the election? Since before the election, his ratings have seemed rational; since then they have been a source of wonder and astonishment.
The graph suggests that Texas is for the wall. Ask Rep Hurd: the closer to the border one is, the less likely to favor a wall. Hurd, a Republican ran in opposition to the wall.
Nate, you and the rest of the media continue to frame this discussion as if there were no wall now. There are 700 miles of barriers and 16,000 border guards. Can we please keep this in perspective and keep telling people. We already invest heavily in border security. Meanwhile how many employers, including Trump, go unpunished because they do not use the tools available to screen out illegal immigrants ?
1
Trump’s base is cracking. My mother gave up on him this week. She was an ardent supporter and Republican volunteer at the polls. Three of the 8 grandkids jobs rely on Federal funds. Mom isn’t happy with Mr. Trump’s antics anymore. Base erosion 101= Don’t hurt the grandchildren.
80
Pending some miracle, Trump should consider himself fortunate if he isn’t impeached during this term in office, and he’s messed over a sufficient number of those who voted for him in 2016 to ensure that there won’t be a second term. Put another way, history will not be kind to him – or to the GOP.
When one looks at this map the racial correlations are unmistakable. Whiter states tend to offer more support for Trump's wall while the support from more racially diverse states is tepid.
Note the difference between Arizona, where support is in the 50% range and next door New Mexico where it drops to 35%.
Alabama, once the "segregation forever" state wants its border secured by a wall even though they are 800 miles away.
But much of this obscures the real issue. Bush and Obama both increased border security. Both secured more funds for this effort.
Both expanded detention centers, more border fencing and Obama became known as the "deporter in chief" because of his efforts to detain and deport undocumented persons.
Trump and the GOP controlled congress for two years. Why didn't the wall get funded then? Why didn't the GOP unveil a new immigration law? Why didn't the Whiter House propose its own new immigration law?
These are the questions of governance that remain unanswered while we instead deal with the symbolism of Trump fighting for his great white wall.
But governance is what government is all about and so far we aren't getting much of anything from Trump or the GOP except tax breaks for the rich and give aways for big polluting company's.
The country deserves an honest debate about immigration, including border security rather than this reality TV show masquerading as policy.
Why the wall? By shutting down the country/government, isn't Trump putting the USA in jeopardy with TSA agents not reporting to work? Airport security used to be a top priority. What happened?
So now presidents have ongoing "ratings"? Aside from the notorious unreliability of polls in recent years, I find this whole obsession with how a president is "polling" a distasteful distraction. Sometimes (OK, not this time) a president makes unpopular decisions. Thank heavens Harry Truman wasn't worried about how it would play in the polls when he fired MacArthur!
The government better fund US education and public schools. Poorly educated Americans do not participate in a democracy very much. There are exceptions, but not many. Poorly educated immigrants that have lived under a dictator or a bad government are excited about democracy, and they know the difference. maybe that is why Trump wants them gone.
If Trump stays we will get to see what it is like to live under the whims of a dictator.Actually,
we are seeing them now, but they are bound to get worse because Trump just walks away from problems. He is fixated on the wall, though. He will take funding away from anywhere else to fund it. He is looking at FEMA funds.He is indifferent to making people suffer. His base does not care, but they will also feel the absence of government support. They may begin to see why government is necessary. That trillion dollar tax break for the very rich will haunt them. What could the gov. do with that money on the ground? Eventually even they will relent, and then we will have the beginning of a new enlightened age.
The only thing that is going to turn Trump supporters away from Trump is if the economy implodes. And to prevent that, the GOP will promise.... another tax cut.
Until the country is broke and nothing goes anymore.
1
If there’s been little polling recently why should I conclude that Trump does not have more support than indicated here, especially since everyone is well aware of The Times relentless efforts to to portray the issue as a loser for the President. I have many friends and relatives who did not vote for Trump and who are in favor of a barrier/wall along with border patrol officials. Additionally we all know how accurate political polling can be. The President made a campaign promise to build a wall and won and, like all presidents, should fulfill it to the best of his ability, regardless if Mexico pays or not.
2
I can't wait for the 40% supporters to lose their jobs, homes and life savings in the coming Trump recession. Oh, and I won't be making any charitable contributions to help them, either. Once they cancel their Cable TV and can't watch Fox, then this national nightmare ends.
1
NO party should EVER attach new, non bipartisan bills to appropriation bills, which by definition fund the president's constitutional duty to implement already existing law for the next year.
THAT is the issue at stake today.
It's Trump and Fox News who hoped that by attaching a wall to an appropriation bill (= by actively deciding to shut down the government, as the wall is not bipartisan at all), the media would talk 24/7 about a wall again, as that would give their base the feeling that the GOP is willing to fight for a wall, and as a consequence keep their ratings high.
ALL studies have shown that it was immigration, not jobs, that made people vote for Trump in 2016, so this article basically doesn't contain any new "lesson" to be learned.
The only way to prevent the GOP from shutting down the government in the future is:
- for Congress to refuse to negotiate as long as the bipartisan appropriation bill isn't signed into law
- for Congress to refuse to include any project that someone has attached to an appropriation bill although it's not bipartisan at all, in ANY future compromise bill, even after the government is open again; in other words to make such projects TOXIC, as punishment for threatening a shutdown or concretely shut down the government
- for the media to systematically focus on the issue at stake, so the SHUTDOWN, rather than to accept to talk about the issue attached to an appropriation bill - if not, they're mainly providing free campaign ads!
For some of his supporters it is likely that they are afraid to admit to themselves and others that they made a grave mistake in voting for trump, the rest I suspect don't have much going on upstairs.
Why has Pres. Trump procrastinated in calling for a national emergency when he knows when he does, it will be thrown into the judicial branch, which will take at least number of weeks, at best, to exit, so why the delay?
Declare the emergency, and let Congress act during this time. It's the only humane thing to do considering the 800.000
federal workers missing their paychecks.
Why do we worry about Trump's base? If it wasn't for Russia, Trump would have lost, base or no base.
Lambs turn into sheep when they enter the voting booth. Indecision before pulling that lever resolves to habitual partisanship.
In the 2016 election, it didn’t matter who in the overfull GOP field was eventually nominated — they could have nominated a lump of coal, and it wouldn’t have mattered. It also did not matter that the Democrats nominated an eminently qualified candidate — or, if you prefer, an irredeemably flawed one. In the end, historically GOP voters were going vote against the Democratic candidate, and historically Democratic voters were going to vote against the GOP candidate. The election, arguably more for one or both sides, was not about specific ideas but rather about tribal party loyalties. It all came down to which party turned out more voters in a few key Electoral states.
I believe that Trump gets too much credit for winning the GOP nomination based on his so-called ideas and disruptive nature. After all, the people who voted for Trump to “shake up Washington” also voted to return to power the same entrenched and dysfunctional House and Senate. I believe that the sheer number of GOP nominees accrued to Trump’s benefit by diluting his field of rivals. Trump would not have done as well in one-on-one debates with most of them, but did very well in terms of name recognition and blustering the loudest on stage and in endless media coverage.
Bottom line? Get out and vote. No excuses. Not for a third-party candidate either. This is too important to risk.
"The relationship between support for the president and the wall is so tight that it’s hard not to wonder whether, at least for now, support for the wall is simply a function of support for the president. "
That is the key statement and applies equally to those, including congressional Democrats, who appose the wall. The wall is itself irrelevant. To his detractors the wall is a metaphor for Trump. To his supports it is shorthand for tighter boarder security. There was never going to be a 2,000 mile physical wall. That is not where the debate (not that there is any debate happening) lies.
Trump can’t back down from demanding the wall because he will look like a weak negotiator, and he will fail to fulfill a campaign promise.
Senate Republicans are unlikely to back down because there is enormous pressure to tow the party line.
House Democrats have an opportunity to drive a wedge between Trump and his Senators, and probably little to lose, so they are very unlikely to back down.
My prediction in the Senate Republicans will begin to break first. However, I could see house Dems breaking if they feel morally obligated to end the shutdown. Or, there’s probably a small chance Trump will pivot and try to save face by selling his base on alternative forms of border security.
15
@Ben
He IS a weak negotiator.
Sooner or later, that truth will become clear for everybody, as in the end, the truth always prevails.
And Pelosi is teaching the GOP a lesson by showing that IF they attach a new and partisan project to an appropriation bill (= bill that funds the implementation of ALREADY existing law, the paychecks of federal employees included), then as long as she is Speaker, they will NEVER EVER get that project signed into law.
That's the only way to make sure that in the future, the GOP no longer thinks about not paying TSA agents when they don't have the votes to pass their agenda in Congress.
In other words, it's the only way to protect this democracy.
That's why Democrats feel morally obliged to REFUSE to negotiate now.
So the only possible solution here is that Trump, the GOP and Fox News come up with a new, false narrative to once again betray their own base all while keeping their ratings high. They've done it for years now, so they'll surely be able to come up with something this time too.
8
Those who did not vote for President Trump are adamantly opposed to his wall and those who voted for him strongly support his wall. This has changed very little in the two years since he was elected. He promised the voters he would protect our southern borders from illegal immigrants and he is trying to fulfill that promise. This is why he is sitting in the Oval Office today. That appealed to many of of who were angry with the large numbers who slipped into our country without the proper documents. It still does and we want that wall.
We are not opposed to immigration by those who follow our laws but do not want people coming who do not follow our legal system. We have always been a nation of immigrants just legal ones. Officer Singh, the immigrant from Fiji, who was killed recently by an illegal from Mexico came here legally. It took him about five years but he was willing to wait and do it the lawful way. All immigrants must seek to follow the legal path to citizenship like Officer Singh did. No exceptions. That is what President Trump wants. He never said he was against immigration just illegal immigration. That distinction must be made but he has been falsely accused of this over and over again. It is just not true.
7
@WPLMMT
what about catching up on some facts ... the wall does not fix the illegal immigration. A significant part of the illegals enters legally and overstays their visa periods. And the "threatening" caravan of mothers and children from the south came to the border to apply for asylum, as colonial politics of America and others has put in power autocratic and dictatorial governments in South American countries that threaten the life of these people. WHY DOES NO ONE WANT TO REMEMBER THAT AMERICA WAS FOUNDED BY PEOPLE THAT OFTEN FLED THEIR HOME COUNTRIES FOR SIMILAR REASONS???????
19
@WPLMMT
"This is why he is sitting in the Oval Office today."
A debatable assertion, at best. No one helped Trump get elected more than the Democratic National Committee.
"That appealed to many of of who were angry with the large numbers who slipped into our country"
I wish "many of you" would bother yourselves to ascertain the facts.
Illegal border crossing is not a crisis; it's down 80% since 2000 and is at its lowest since 1973. Families seeking asylum is up 300%, but the total in 2018 was 97,000. More people land in JFK every day. We can handle it. (We could even handle it better by addressing the root causes for chaos and criminality in Central America, but why quibble?)
Some 90% of people here illegally arrived legally and overstayed their visas.
So: illegal immigration is down. There's no crisis. The wall wouldn't have kept out 90% of the people you're trying to prevent from coming. Why is it, then, that you want the wall?
BTW, your distinction over legal/illegal immigration is stronger in your mind than Trump's, or most of his supporters as far as I can tell. Trump's travel ban, for instance, is transparently anti-Muslim-immigrant. None of the banned countries were sources of a single terrorist incident, and none were sources of illegal immigration. The widespread difficulty in getting visas to come here is another aspect. So is the suggestion to end birthright citizenship.
19
@WPLMMT
A good start, IF you're interested in national security and illegal immigration, would be to read the 2013 Senate bill S.744.
That bipartisan, comprehensive immigration bill passed the Senate (thanks to Obama's strong focus) with a super-majority of 68 votes.
Then look at what even the four-star Generals in Trump's own cabinet said during the last two years about the wall: it confirms what ALL other national security experts have already shown for years, namely that a wall is NOT the most effective way to increase southern border security. What we need instead, OBJECTIVE reports show, is the things included in S.744 (much more BP agents, e-verify etc.).
Now when last spring Democrats proposed to vote for a similar bill PLUS full funding of Trump's wall ($26 billion), Trump first agreed to sign it into law, but then at the very last minute flip-flopped. Why?
The bill, of course, included the bipartisan Dream Act (written by L. Graham (R) and Dick Durbin (D) years ago, and basically a version of DACA). 80% of the American people and a majority of GOP voters support that bill, AND Trump had promised to sign it into law.
Now, all of a sudden Ann Coulter started to attack him for that. So ... he caved to Ann Coulter and instead of respecting his own voters and sign that bill into law and start building his wall, he rejected it.
And of course, today it's no longer about the wall. Now Pelosi HAS to refuse to negotiate, because a shutdown is unacceptable in itself.
16
As a Bernie Sanders Democrat, I have to be politically incorrect and say that at this point, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are as responsible as President Trump for the government shutdown.
Both parties are playing to their respective base. But it is exceedingly unlikely that Trump will give up what he is now so publicly committed to, namely, a "wall." So in return for agreeing to fund that wall, Pelosi and Schumer could have exacted any number of things, whether related to immigration or not. DACA, of course, healthcare, entitlements, or whatever.
Sure, Trump has recently rejected DACA and other items which had been offered. However, that was then and this is NOW. And since the wall is his bottom line, Pelosi and Schumer could let him have it and get some wonderful things in return.
Sadly, however, the two of them seem as fully dug in as the President. So this government shutdown, as Trump himself has said, could go on for a very long time, and lots of hard-working people will suffer. Oh how I wish that our Democratic leaders were not so wedded to head-to-head combat. I am part of their base, and I am very unhappy with them.
7
@Richard
With all respect, you're not getting it.
This is no longer about the wall, it is about the shutdown.
An appropriation bill is a bill that allocates money to the Executive branch of government so that it can fulfill its constitutional duty to implement ALREADY existing laws.
You CAN decide to attach a NEW law project to such a bill, but only a bipartisan project, because if not, you make it impossible for one of both parties to vote for the appropriation bill too, you see?
And once appropriation bills can't pass in Congress anymore (and again, the fault here is ONLY the responsibility of those who don't allow a clean vote on it), the government shuts down, TSA agents are no longer paid, and the damage done to America's safety gets worse day after day.
There are NO good reasons to stop implementing existing law.
So if Pelosi would accept to negotiate here, she would allow the GOP to pass no matter what, in the future, as all that they would have to do is attach that new bill to an appropriation bill, you see?
That's why the very fact that the GOP attached a wall to an appropriation bill is what is making it totally impossible for Pelosi to accept to negotiate.
And to make sure that the GOP learns it lesson and NEVER stops paying TSA agents in the future again, the only solution is to make sure that they know that ANY future new project that will be attached to an appropriation bill will NEVER be included in ANY kind of compromise bill afterwards.
25
@Richard
The bipartisan group of senators negotiating the exact thing you are suggesting (DACA+Wall) were shut down by a clear message from the white house that it would not be accepted. As such Mitch (what third branch) McConnell will not allow it to get a vote - so the group has put their negotiations on hold. It will eventually be the solution - but at this time Trump is to afraid of Ann Coulter to allow it.
15
@Richard I appreciate the ideas that Sen. Sanders has raised since 2015. And I understand why in 2016 he kept his independent status as a senator. However going into 2020 I have to point out firmly that it is impossible to be a "Bernie Sanders Democrat". Sen Sanders is not a Democrat and does not consider himself one.
We have had a master class from Trump in the last two years showing what happens when a President simply takes over the agenda of a political party and bullies the elected officials of that party into "falling in line."
Those of us who still cling to a process for developing the agenda of our major political parties, look on in horror at the thought of Sen. Sanders becoming President without being part of the process to agree on an agenda for the Democratic party.
4
The coverage of this story must continue to focus on the derailment of the governing process, which is deeply concerning. Republicans should not shut down federal government as a winner-take-all negotiation tactic for a controversial aspect of legislation to address a thorny issue. Period.
This process brings up other deeply concerning questions: Why is the Republican leadership silent? The explanation of Trump's "base" as a political driver for this silence is superficial. People need fact-based news to have a broader understanding of the issues. Where is the "base" getting their news? The coverage in Fox News paints a different story about the government shutdown. What's the relationship? (And how about some more information about Fox News Voter Analysis data, which is now a "competitor to the traditional exit polls"?)
7
Now that the GOP shut down the government and stopped paying employees who are crucial for national security such as TSA agents, border patrol agents etc., the question of how many people support and how many reject a wall has become totally irrelevant.
The ONLY relevant question now is: should it remain legal and/or become acceptable to refuse to allow a vote on or sign into law bipartisan appropriation bills as long as Congress or a president don't accept to ALSO sign a new bill into law that some elected officials in DC support, but not enough to get it signed into law?
In other words, do we want a government that, contrary to other Western governments, can stop implementing existing law (which is what an appropriation bill is all about), including paying national security agents, each time some elected officials fail to negotiate a compromise bill on an issue they would like to see signed into law or campaigned on?
The GOP in DC massively answers "yes!" to this question.
Democrats in DC massively answer "no!".
So THIS is the debate we should be having today, rather than sticking to articles about a wall.
How do we want the government to operate?
Should new and controversial projects be attached to appropriation bills, or not?
Should the president only pay TSA agents when Congress accepts to sign his campaign agenda into law, or not?
Should he only implement existing law when Congress passes certain new laws, even when they campaigned on rejecting them?
1
It is not surprising support for building a wall/barrier /??? seems directly tied to Mr. Trump's support. But is that the core issue? The broader issue is how the prevailing macroeconomic framework has eroded the foundation of American populist democracy; an economically stable and socially secure middle class.
Democrats and Republicans have followed a macroeconomic policy agenda of neoliberalism which supported the dominance of so-called free market capitalism in setting public policy. The truth is the loss of middle-class jobs is due almost exclusively to the outsourcing of manufacturing to lower wage foreign countries and automation by domestic corporate senior executives and majority shareholders, not immigration.
Prime recent proofs of this are the announcement by General Motors of the closing of five domestic manufacturing plants across the Midwest and the December 2018 jobs report showing an unexpected increase of over 300,000 new jobs. The U.S. economy is expanding but not to the benefit of tens of millions of economically marginalized/disenfranchised middle-class citizens.
Mr. Trump's shutdown of the federal government to force Speaker Pelosi and Leader Schumer to make a U.S. taxpayer funded $5 billion dollar reelection campaign contribution to the detriment of 800,000 federal workers is another instance.
3
@Memnon The article makes clear that The Wall is the "core issue" only for Trump's base. As we get closer to 2020 it will become clearer what the "core issue" is for the majority. Lots of things can happen between now and then.
To any Trump supporter here who supports Trump's idea to no longer pay TSA and border patrol agents and to no longer implement existing law as long as Democrats don't vote for his wall:
Let's go back to 2010 for a moment. Obama and most Democrats have always supported single payer. At that time, 40% of the country however opposed it.
Just like what was the case for the GOP during Jan. 2017 - Dec 2018, the party that controlled the WH controlled Congress and had more than 50 but not 60 Senators.
Would you have supported the idea that Obama no longer pays TSA agents, border patrol agents and coast guards, and for weeks/months, in order to try to force Congress to pass single payer knowing that he didn't have the votes to get it passed because "we the people" didn't elect a Congress with a 60-vote Senate that supported it?
Of course you wouldn't.
And that's the very ESSENCE of what is happening today.
Pelosi isn't refusing to negotiate on a wall because she rejects a wall. She's refusing to do so because INSTEAD of negotiating with Congress and creating a compromise bill, the GOP decided to no longer pay TSA agents, and the president decided to no longer fulfill his constitutional duty to implement already existing law even when he can't get new laws through Congress - which is UNACCEPTABLE.
And by telling him that from now on, no wall will EVER get her vote, she makes sure the GOP knows that future shutdowns are useless as they will NEVER allow them to obtain anything.
19
Ultimately Trump's wall boondoggle is now the gov't shut down travails that has placed real hardship on people. The immigration debate is being lost to the public with Trump's arrogant use of other people's suffering to win a political battle. Left out of this is Mitch McConnell's obtuse see no evil policy to Trump' fiasco.
11
This situation with trump is unbelievable. We have a president who is demanding that the taxpayers spend an initial 5.7 billion dollars on a wall that is unnecessary and unwanted by the majority of citizens. Because the Congress, in agreement with the majority of citizens, and in recognition of the uselessness of the wall, has denied the funding demanded, the president has shut down some essential government services.
If only ten republican senators have the gumption to act in the national interest, this unacceptable situation can be brought to an end. Bills proposed by the House can be finally be voted on by the Senate, a presidential veto can be overridden, and the current Senate leadership be overruled as well.
13
@Pete Kantor
You forgot that McConnell still has to allow a vote on that bill, which he refuses as long as Trump refuses to open the government again.
ALL the proven, effective ways to increase border security were already included in the 2013 bipartisan immigration reform bill. That bill passed the Senate by a 68 super-majority vote. And then ... the GOP House refused to allow a vote on it. That's why until today, nothing has been done about the border.
And nothing will ever change until "we the people" start to understand that the GOP does NOT want increased border security, and for two reasons:
1. nothing fires up the GOP base as intensely as the issue of immigration, so as long as the GOP does nothing and sells that as the Democrats' fault, calls them "open borders" etc. and the base believes these lies, they can continue to win elections, no matter what they do or do not do in DC.
2. many GOP CEOs, including Trump himself (even as president, at Mar-o-Lago), WANT to be able to hire illegal immigrants, because they adore the idea of cheap and easy to bully and exploit labor. So they oppose things such as e-verify, and as a consequence bipartisan immigration reform bills ...
Democrat likewise love a good immigration fight and have no interest in solving the problem. It gives them the opportunity to advocate for more social programs and money to support them. Additionally they eventually vote Democratic and don’t kid yourself, rich Dems love cheap labor too.
California has been re made in recent years due to immigration legal and illegal.
One question that has not been addressed is why, when Trump's Republicans were in control of Congress for the past two years, he didn't get funding for his wall? Why did he wait until the Democrats were in control of the House? He must have known that they would fight him on it, so why didn't he ask for the funding when he was sure he could get it? It makes no sense that if the wall is so important to the nation's security he would wait two years to get funding. He should have asked for the money as soon as he took office. Something is fishy about the timing of this whole thing.
11
@Ms. Pea
Good point. Since it was a campaign “promise” it isn’t like he just thought of it. Perhaps he likes discord and chaos more than actually getting something done.
The way he is wired might be that constant battling and feuding to look like both a victim and a strong winner simultaneously is his thing?
@Ms. Pea: re; why, when Trump's Republicans were in control of Congress for the past two years, he didn't get funding for his wall?
Because Republican House and Senate members had no intention of funding thie Trump boondoggle, knowing they would be lamed by voters for spending scarce resources on the useless wall. Now, it's an attempt to saddle the Democrats with it, but Chuck and Nancy won't play along..
That 41% or so base should be sufficient. The remaining 10% (less by grace of the electoral college) required for victory can be counted upon from agnostics sufficiently disgusted by the eventual Democratic alternative presented to them.
4
@Edwin
And if by chance a Democrat ends up winning the presidency?
Will you support the fact that from now on, a president has the right to no longer implement existing law and no longer pay national security agents as long as Congress doesn't sign his campaign agenda into law, including those items that a majority of the American people and a majority in Congress oppose?
Do you accept that Bernie Sanders would no longer pay TSA agents until single payer gets signed into law, for instance?
If your answer is no to that question, you should tell the GOP to obtain a deal about the wall WITHOUT EVER shutting down the government, even when you support a wall.
Because that is now what it's all about, rather than being about a wall.
1
@Edwin
This is why the Democrats cannot have 16 candidates running, including the latest to proclaim, the mayor of San Antonio.... Seriously?
If there is infighting among the dems and the resultant candidate is not a strong person with a clear alternative to Trump message, the sorry incumbent might be re-elected.
It is worrisome that this 38-41% would vote for Trump if he turned out to be a Russian asset, shot someone on a street in D.C. and divorced his wife in favor of a 20 year old porn star. All they want is to be assured of no change, a wall, no action on fake climate worries, religion and guns.
It is sad that this unthinking 40% constant in the Republican’s favor doing the thinking for him is considered acceptable.
All
1
Trump's border wall obsession and blind support to this madness by his political base can be a matter of pride for Trump but a sure disaster for America that will perhaps try its best to avoid a repeat of 2016 in 2020.
11
Educators and parents will recognize what is going on here. When a much - loved child does something wrong one has to decide to reinforce the discipline handed out or take the stance of "my child right or wrong". Trump supporters have taken the latter position. That ties into what the pundits call the tribalism that characterizes the Trump voter. It is too bad that Trump voters did not take the time to find out about his misdeeds before the election. It is up to the rest of us to correct the problem now.
19
@sierrastrings Trump is as close to pure evil as it gets in US Presidents.
In a divided America, we should rely upon the fundamentals and look at the democracy as a whole and see that the vast majority of our country does not want to spend its wealth on an ineffective border wall.
Since Mr. Trump is so focused on looking good than being good, he should zero in on the survey that illustrates that most Americans do not want a wall and put his well meaning security measure to rest and reopen the government.
Alas, I am fear that common sense is not so common in this administration.
18
@ZigZag
Oddly, he does not care. He knows a majority does not like his performance, so I believe he just ignores those people, or even acts against them since he cannot control them.
Instead, he tries even harder to get love from his base, wherefrom he gets his energy. Have you ever seen him go anywhere for one of his MAGA rallies other than to a known stronghold of love for him?
Missing from all the complaints and outrage we hear about how millions of Americans are being hurt by the government shutdown is any acknowledgement that our immigration crisis is the creation of a federal government that has refused to enforce its own immigration laws. To borrow a line used by Hollywood to promote its blockbuster movies, this problem has "been years in the making and has a cast of thousands."
12
@Dave Gorak, Yes, there should be thousands of business owners and corporate executives in prison for violating the laws. But, of course, the focus is on the people seeking opportunities that the "supply side" provides them with relative impunity. We do, indeed, need to have a deeper conversation about "the immigration crisis."
24
Except that it's not "the" federal government that has refused to enforce its own immigration laws, but the GOP and the GOP alone - as it is once again doing today, not only by no longer paying TSA and BP agents and coast guards for weeks in a row, but also for pushing a proven ineffective measure to enforce immigration law such as a wall in the first place.
Thanks to Obama's strong focus on national security and immigration, keen interest in policy details, and exceptional negotiation skills, he has managed to get a bipartisan comprehensive immigration bill through the Senate by a super-majority of 68 votes already in 2013.
That bill contains most of what national security experts have shown is needed to secure the southern border (40,000 more BP agents, e-verify etc.).
Why is it that for five long years, nevertheless, NOTHING has been done?
Because since then, the GOP House has simply refused to allow a vote on it (knowing that if they would, it would have passed and Obama would have signed it into law).
Now it's even worse than that: acknowledging that the GOP had won the 2016 elections, in 2017 the Democrats proposed to vote for a similar bill, which this time would included FULL funding for Trump's wall.
Trump first agreed, but then ... Coulter attacked him for agreeing to a bill that includes DACA (which 80% of the American people and a majority of GOP voters support), so he flip-flopped and rejected it.
THAT is why there's no wall nor anything else today.
22
@Dave Gorak
I agree, most employers who use these immigrants have not been in compliance to labor laws.
As I recall, the Trump administration was in control of both houses for two years. Why is this now an "emergency" now that the Democrats have a majority in the house?
25
To any Trump supporter out there: Democrats not only oppose the wall, they also oppose tax cuts for the wealthiest.
Trump and the GOP tell you that if no bill for the wall ($26 billion, if a concrete wall) could get through Congress before Pelosi and the Democrats took over the House, it's because of the Democrats.
But then HOW did they get their massive tax cuts through Congress, which Democrats opposed too ... ?
Fact is, they COULD have easily passed a bill that contained full funding for the wall, but they never focused on it, not even Trump.
And remember, it's ONLY when you attach a wall to an appropriation bill that you need 60 votes in the Senate, because appropriation bills need 60 votes.
So by only writing a bill for a wall in December, AND by deciding to attach it to an appropriation bill, knowing that there were only 52 GOP Senators, the GOP and Trump chose the most difficult way to get it signed into law...
Why, you think?
50
@Ana Luisa Excellent. Better to gum up the works. Truth, justice and the GOP's anti-America way.
@Ana Luisa
They got their massive tax cuts with the help of Ryan and McCoward because, since taking office, Trump has spend 25% of his time at one of his 17 golf properties. That’s 154 visits between Jan. 20, 2017 and Sept. 1, 2018. There are no stats yet for his golf trips since last September. Those that have been counted cost American taxpayers $77 million, more than Mueller has spent on the Russia investigation. This includes flights on Air Force One, accomodations and overtime pay for his Secret Service detail and others who travel with him (he charges the Secret Service for meals and rooms at his golf clubs) and $300,675 in golf cart rentals alone. He also spends 50% of his time watching TV. So he actually works only a quarter of his time, and much of that “work” is actually campaigning, bloviating and lying to the American public.
@Ana Luisa
Two reasons, which are not mutually exclusive:
1. general incompetence of this administration
2. useful issue as a campaign rant in the GOP's appeal to the ignorant and gullible
The next two years will provide nonstop reality TV like drama from the US. Those of us watching from afar hope the drama doesn’t turn into a dystopian reality for America.
25
@Lawyers, Guns And Money:
Well put, and I assume you’ve answered your own question. The real issue is whether Trump’s base can actually see the answer you’ve handed to them.
@Lawyers, Guns And Money. Too late
Yesterday's Washington Post/ABC poll shows 42 percent of Americans (87% of whom are Republicans) support a wall.
There is no data showing a wall provides more border security than improvements to the current fencing system, which would cost much less than a wall.
A comprehensive, unbiased analysis is needed regarding the need for a wall and pros/cons of building a wall vs. maintaining the current fence system. Such a study is needed before the administration can convince Congress, the Senate, and the country on the immediate need to invest billions of our tax dollars for a border wall. These data and analyses will take time to prepare.
But, Republicans do not support gathering more data to be confident, through rigorous scientifically supported analyses, that a wall would provide significant advantages over much cheaper technological and other improvements to the current border protection system.
OK....
Trump's 2017 trillion dollar tax cut, which increased our annual deficit by a trillion dollars, gave well over 80% of tax cut benefits to Republicans.
Since Republicans are unwilling to support and assess such a study, since Republicans received the vast majority of the trillion dollar tax cuts, and since Republicans overwhelmingly support building a $50billion+ wall, IRS should tax registered Republicans so that they pay for 80% of the wall, and tax registered Democrats so that they pay for 20% of the wall.
Seems fair to me... Agreed, Republican base?
39
@Ed
Actually, does studies do exist, and for years already.
That's precisely why nobody tried to massively extend the existing parts of fences and walls.
And it's because of those studies that all national security experts, including the four-star Generals in Trump's own cabinet, have publicly declared that a wall is NOT the most efficient way to protect the southern border.
The reason why GOP voters support it anyhow is simply because Trump and Fox News liked the idea of a wall as campaign slogan, in 2016, and because GOP voters tend to refrain from doing any fact-checking on their own.
And of course, it has to remain a campaign slogan, because if not, how could the GOP fire up its own base? That's why they focused on getting tax cuts for the wealthiest, which add $1.9 trillion to the debt, during the only years when they controlled DC, rather than focusing on getting a $26 billion bill to build the wall through Congres ...
1
Seems that there’s no end to the attempt at economic suicide in the same states that largely oppose health care for its masses.
1
@Ed WA DC , this will probably not shift since Fox media has become such a strong propaganda arm of the White House. The Republicans listen to nothing else and it shows.
1
In the end, Democrats refusal to stand up for national sovereignty, for American workers they say they support and against having an entire class of residents exempt from laws citizens are prosecuted for; receiving many social services citizens don’t get yet wholly unaccountable to the general welfare, will continually undermine everything else they want to do.
This issue is not going away. Democrats need to be for the country and for working people. Come up with a counter plan. Name calling is not a viable solution.
6
@CNNNC the Democrats did come up with AND pass a plan the Mitch McConnell refuses to take to the foot for a vote because Trump will veto it. McConnell refuses to do his job. If Trump vetos it the Legislative body CAN override the veto with another vote. That’s how the process is designed.
42
@Mr. Montgomery
The Democrats seem to have played their hand and folded their tent. They need to come up with serious challenges to McConnell holding Congress and the country hostage. Is his refusal to allow a vote legal? If so, it shouldn't be. One senator from a small state preventing Congress from doing its job. Some of the few remaining public unions are at least taking strategically meaningful actions by challenging the government's ability to force some federal employees to work without pay. I hope those challenges prevail in the (shutdown?) courts. The Democrats need a contingency plan. Otherwise, it appears their strategy is to allow Trump to push the country further into crisis with the hope it will benefit them in the next election. Federal workers should not be a political football. The Democrats' work is not done.
2
@CNNNNC
If Democrats would "refuse to stand up for national sovereignty", then how come that illegal immigration went down dramatically under Obama (also called the "deporter in chief")?
And how do you explain that he created the Family Case Management program, which increased the number of people caught and released and who systematically show up in the courts from 60 to 99% (at very low cost)?
Do you really believe that Trump's decision to end this program, incarcerate them all, and then no longer having enough space in prison so simply release them on American streets by the thousands, somehow protects our national sovereignty better?
And if not only all national security experts but even the four-star Generals in Trump's own cabinet (and he only picks "the best", remember?) have publicly declared that the data show that a wall is NOT the most effective way to protect the southern border, HOW can you still imagine that Trump, who now decided to no longer pay TSA and border patrol agents and coast guards etc., and for weeks, is fighting NOT for his own ratings but for national security here ... ?
Finally, in 2013 already, and thanks to Obama's relentless focus on national security, the Senate passed a bipartisan comprehensive immigration reform bill, that contained most of what experts have shown effectively secures the southern border (40,000 more BP agents, e-verify etc.).
The GOP House blocked a vote on it since then.
So ONLY Democrats are serious here, you see?
Whether half the country is stupifed by the ignorance and irrationality of the other side is irrelevant.
According to that Fox poll, 49% of the country approves and 50% disapproves of Trump's take on border security.
The only intelligent, rational thing to do is for both sides to compromise.
6
@Talbot
Not once one party decides to shut down the government.
That's the only situation where you cannot possibly accept to negotiate, because if you would, from now on TSA agents, border patrol agents, coast guards etc. would no longer be paid half of the year, each time Congress disagrees on something, and that would undermine national security dramatically.
Here's why.
It's a president's constitutional duty to implement already existing law. That's because whether Congress agrees on a new law or not, the country still has to be protected, food still has to be safe, contracts respected etc. That's what guarantees stability in a democracy, where by definition a lot of political disagreement is allowed to openly exist, in the media, among ordinary citizens and in Congress.
An appropriation bill funds the implementing of EXISTING law for the next year, and allows a president to fulfill his duty.
APART from that, in function of whom "we the people" elect in Congress, new laws can be made.
A new law passes in Congress when those lawmakers who support it manage to talk in such a way to those who oppose it, that the result is a compromise. If you're not able to get a compromise, you won't be able to sign your project into law, and as the GOP has shown under Obama, all lawmakers have the constitutional right to refuse to compromise, and it's only up to "we the people" to decide whether we'll re-elect those who refused to compromise on those issues, or the others.
3
@Talbot,
Trump is not interested in compromise of any sort. He couldn't even make a deal with his own party when it controlled both the House and Senate at the start of the shutdown.
Now he expects that because he's taken parts of the federal workforce hostage he will extort a better deal from a newly elected Democratic house than he could get from his own party.
Thankfully, enough of the newly elected Democrats came equipped with a spine which have been in short supply within the party for too long. They seem to realize that Trump will accept no 'compromise' only capitulation and wisely have refused to reward his hostage taking.
@Talbot Ahem ... Fox?!
I'm still waiting for the Dem Party to counter Trump's border rhetoric with a dual plan for effective e-verify with employer sanctions and visas/green cards to give legal status to those workers here now. In other words to make illegal apply equally to employers and employees, while recognizing the economic reality of US dependence upon said workers.
Giving workers legal rights is a no brainer.
15
@Craig H.
A good first step, as I-9 forms should be enforced. Ask yourself this: why hasn't the GOP done that? Could it be somehow beneficial to their constituents to fall back on the rhetoric without actually doing anything?
After all, they've had many years of majority control in Congress, including the past two years of unfettered control.
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@Craig H.
You haven't been paying attention. Trump does not want any workers from south of the border. In his warped mind they are all criminals and terrorists of the worst kind.
That being said, in a real world, not the reality TV world we currently occupy, you would be right on the mark.
While the focus has been on trump’s lack of support, I see that his 1/3 of the electorate support remains solid. That minority lead to his electoral college victory and could do so again in 2020. trump’s effort will be on discouraging voters outside his 1/3 into staying home (again) while mobilizing his base. It could happen folks.
17
@Brad. Isn't the answer to boycott the base. Don't by any thing produced or manufactured in a census district that Trump carried. Why should I spend my money to support someone whose beliefs and support in my mind is ruining the country, long term and short term.
13
@Brad. It ain't gonna happen, Brad. No one's staying home on this next one. A direct vote on getting rid of the Lord of Corruption and Chaos. The 2020 turnout will make the 2018 Midterms look like a local race for water district.
1
Trump is not going to win with just his base and a few extra "Republican Only" types in 2020. That is if he is not removed from office first.
People do not get used to chaos. They put up with it but given the choice they wish for sanity and decorum eventually.
If Britain had another chance to vote they would vote against Brexit. May not be by huge amounts but Brexit would go down in another vote. It's more than dawned on the ones who voted for it who occupy more centrist views that they made a mistake because not only is it destabilizing Britain, it's somewhat destabilizing Europe and after all, Europe is Britains closest trading sphere.
And be it Trump or Brexit, it's all given China a leg up around the world. Once China has even more influence than the slow choking of the US will really start. Isolationism just isn't tenable with a China and Russia out there.
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@Clearwater
Buyers remorse is strongly outweighed by buyers defensiveness.Rather than face the fact that they have purchased a lemon, buyers tend to defend their mistakes.
If you look at the graphs accompanying this article, you will note that approval of the wall is trending upward.
I wouldn't bet a quid on reversal of the Brexit vote, or a nickel on the Democratic candidate in '20.
1
@Clearwater
You are right. Trump won in large part because many people who could not bring themselves to vote for Hilary, held their noses and voted for Trump.
Well, that and the help he got from Putin.
All those people who held their noses have since found that the current stench in Washington is far worse than if Clinton had won.
Britain may yet get their chance at another Brexit vote and so will we. If he make it to the end of his term.
That Fox poll had interesting results.
The country is about virtually evenly split on approving or disspproving of Trump's handling of border security.
Regarding the wall, 46% approved and 53% disapproved. But the breakdown was virtually identical--over 80% of Republicans and Democrats approving and disapproving, respectively, with mid-teens numbers that switched from their party to the other side on this issue.
This is not an issue that could or should be won by one side alone. It is exacty the kind of by the party issue where compromise is not only good but vital.
The vast majority of each party thinks they are right. And Americans overall are split down the middle.
That means both sides can reliably use this issue forever to get support from their side for their side.
But absulutely nothing will be done unless both sides give an inch or more.
6
I am continuing to be stupefied. As an educator, I keep reflecting if I’m doing as much as I need to in order to encourage critical thinking skills and rational thought. We just cannot do this to ourselves again.
88
To many of the most educated people I know have no ability to think clearly or critically and indeed seem incapable of it especially emotions take over. I marvel at it too...
1
@Eva O'MaA
We did it with Bush 2 twice, and he arguably was worse given the overtly false pretense for war and gross international turmoil that is still in play.
All the important states for Trump's reelection oppose the wall (Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin). Not a few, all of them. The other aspect of this is Trump's governing philosophy. He is unwilling to compromise. He won't agree to allowing DACA folks a path to citizenship. It's all the money he wants or nothing. It isn't much of a reach to come to the conclusion Trump will do this over and over to get what he wants. The Democrats could very easily portray him that way: "We are passing bills he won't even consider. He is stuck on one issue and can't walk and chew gum at the same time". For this to happen once over one issue could be overlooked, but if he deals with every piece of legislation this way, he will get crushed. Mitch obstructs quietly. From a back room in a barroom. Trump obstructs in full public view and makes a great deal of noise. When you draw lots of attention to yourself, it's hard to deflect responsibility for the damage you cause.
51
I believe it's likely that Trump's actual support is a few points higher than as reported because some people support Trump but are embarrassed to say so, whereas almost no one falsely claims to support him.
24
It's similar to what happened in the 2016 election no doubt. But now that effect has probably shrunk and evened out much more because instead of people that hoped that Trump would do a good job if elected, there are people that see that he is not doing a good job, depending on what you value. His approval rating has certainly sunk since he took office and his disapproval has increased and I don't think that that margin can be attributed to dishonesty in polling.
And I don't understand why people would lie to pollsters when the polling is anonymous, but it shifted the table enough in 2016 to bewilder us all who expected Hillary Clinton to be giving a victory speech on November 9th while Trump still stubbornly refused to concede. But let's remember that Trump won narrow victories in the right mix and number of battleground states. If the effect persists in 2020, I doubt that it will be enough to produce the same result.
1
@Andrew You hope. HRC performed exactly as the national polls predicted. As you say, she lost by the closest of margins in her "blue wall" states where a few 1000 votes cost her the election. But I disagree that there isn't a % or two that refuse to disclose, perhaps even in the confessional, that they support POTUS.
@joelafisher
That may have been true before the 2016 election. I think it may actually have flipped the other way. People are afraid or are too embarrassed to admit they were wrong in supporting the madman and continue to go along with their zealous peers.
These statistics were gathered before the shutdown affected people’s paycheck.I notice that West Virginia is approving of the Wall.A high number of their population work for the government.They have not been paid and there is a ripple effect on the community.Joe Manchin , their Senator, declares emphatically that the government must reopen. Pain is spreading- numbers change.
18
Commentators and 2020 watchers miss the point when Trump reinforces his base at 40% and ignores expanding his popularity. In Maine we had Mr Lepage elected twice as governor with a minority (but plurality) of the votes. The first election did not reach 40% for him.
All Mr Trump need do is hope for a third party candidate and that the democrats elect a far left candidate extreme enough to allow room for a centrist third party option. Then he can exploit the splitting of the electorate.
Of course, right now Trump needs to keep his senators in check. That means threatening a primary run against anyone who might even think of impeaching him! And that means appealing to his base. He is not the dummy others make him out to be...
21
@mike - Trump also has the propaganda machine/think tank/pr agency a.k.a. the Fox News Network and their affiliates working ceaselessly for him. I don't understand why people questioning the motives and incremental political successes of Trump can't understand the power of this branch of the media.
19
@mike, great points. This is NOT the time to try out socialism-like brainstorms that are never going to fly and will only serve to alienate enough mainstream voters to enable another fours years of President Trump. The historic cautionary tale is the tragic 2000 feel-good candidacy of Ralph Nader.
14
@Jenny in Connecticut I think people may not fully understand the power of Fox and how it sells trump because they assume it reports the news like any other media outlet. People should take a look at a whole program and pay attention to the way Fox lays out the story both logically, choosing and explaining evidence and emotionally, with every visual (even the set layout and dress and language of the reporters) and sound cue. Every show is like a long sales infomercial for the trump administration.
3
Trump had two problems: 1) take back day-to-day control of the media narrative cycle; and 2) grab the attention of his base away from the attacks on him.
He did both, and it is working very well for him.
So what if he won't get "a wall?" If he really cared about that, we'd have had this fight sometime in the last two years, long before this. He isn't even clear day-to-day what he means by "a wall." That does not really matter to what he does care about.
32
In other words, all that exist are the moment to moment impulses of his reptilian pathology. The theme of the Donald Trump presidency is Donald Trump, full stop. There is no other meaning.
I have to question these polls. No doubt most Americans oppose a wall as the best approach to managing immigration.
But if support of the wall tracks support of Trump, and said support averages 20% and is primary from his "base," why were so many Republicans elected who also support the wall?
Gerrymandering? Yes. Support of other "conservative" issues? Sure. But if there's little support for his signature pledge, and there are even signs of Republican defection on this issue, what's driving some otherwise somewhat sane people to continue their support of the party at large? Will those who refuse to challenge Trump on the wall finally be punished in 2020?
Rather than polls on single topics, I'd like to see more analysis of the "base" regarding their support across a range of issues. Does the wall really have less support in their view than Trump's economic "plans" or his views of our international allies or health care or taxes? I'm at a loss to see how his actual voting base, as opposed to his donor base, really feels about the loss of health benefits, or the impact of tariffs on their businesses, or his failure to support veteran benefits.
I guess I'm asking this question: At what point does he cross a line too far to warrant the blind support from people who are actually being hurt by his intransigence and regressive policies? Every time I think we may have crossed that line I've been wrong. His supporters don't waver. When is enough ENOUGH?
16
Ever hear of lemmings?
@SMKNC
There will never be enough for these people as he represents making America WHITE again and that is never going to happen.
Take out a couple of Mickey Mouse polls like the Rasmussen one which push up the averages and Trump's approval is probably around 38 or 39%. On any historical basis this is fairly appalling. It was obvious that Trump was a major fact in the turn out for the mid terms which was also historically high. The Trump shut down over the wall is definitely a loser. The only question is at what point the Republicans in the Senate panic. Trump's backing away from declaring an emergency was almost certainly largely prompted by a warning from Senate Republicans that they were not going to support this. Not surprisingly since the long term implications were horrific for them. My guess is Republican panic breaks out in the next two weeks. There are already a few signs of it.
19
@John -- Whichever polls you include in your group, whatever the resulting number, the key fact is that if you use the same grouping of polls, that number hasn't changed despite all that has happened in the attacks on Trump. He has today what he had when he was elected. He's managed the media cycle and his base to that degree.
5
@Mark Thomason
He was elected by considerably more than around 40% of the electorate. No his hardcore base hasn't changed much but his soft support has pretty much collapsed as the mid terms indicated and part of the reason for this is his need to feed the appetites of his base.
16
@John -- He was elected by about 48% of those who voted. Many in the electorate did not vote. They mostly were not Trump supporters. His supporters seem to have been motivated, even though overall turnout rates were low for a Presidential year (total votes were about level, from a larger voter base).
It is quite possibly accurate to say that 40% of the total electorate were his supporters, and that was enough. That is why a candidate who inspired higher turnouts might have beaten him.
McConnell needs to end this shutdown, and he could do it tomorrow. This would also allow The Donald to save face. The bill reaches Trump, of he doesn't sign it in 10 days, it becomes law. If Trump vetoes the bill, Congress can vote to override the veto, viola!!! The shutdown is over. It seems Sen Jon Tester's speech from the Senate floor is making the rounds, hopefully it will put pressure on McConnell. As far as Trump's polling numbers, he plays to his base, that's where his numbers live.
38
@Dan O, and those numbers keep dwindling. Has anyone had the guts to tell him?
1
According to 'FiveThirtyEight' 41.3% of the adult population approve of Donald Trump. A Gallup poll from 2014 showed 38% of the population of the USA believed that the earth and, for that matter the universe, was less than 10,000 years old. These days you have to work pretty hard to come up with a convincing rationale that supports creationism. Similarly the rationale for finding President Trump to be an acceptable leader of your nation seems to me, from the distance of Australia, utterly unfathomable. I guess from looking at the figures around 40% seems to be the number of people who will be unlikely to listen or believe evidence that is presented to them that doesn't agree with their preconceptions. The Constitution of the United States was founded on the ideas of the American Enlightenment and is America's Greatest Strength. The Enlightenment applied scientific reasoning to politics, science, and religion. Trump is not making America great. He, his base and GOP are eroding what really makes America great. It is so sad to watch.
94
@ David Downie:
"These days you have to work pretty hard to come up with a convincing rationale that supports creationism."
Actually, it's quite easy. Stick your fingers in your ears and repeat "la, la, la, la, la, la" ad nauseum.
1
@David Downiesadder to have to live through. He and his party are destroying this country every way possible.
Declaring an emergency and siphoning funds against the wishes of Congress are impeachable offenses in my book. There are lots of ways Trump could come to bargaining table and get both resolution and face saving. He wants this crisis which is why stoking it is impeachable. We should get on with impeachment. Mueller’s Findings will drive indictments but we have enough right now in the public domain to get moving.
7
@Denis -- We have about 30 different declared states of emergency current right now, some going back 40 years, and that pattern has held since before the Korean War.
Funds are siphoned out of one program into another continuously. The whole concept of "black programs" for secret work in defense and intelligence is to do that, and it involves tens of billions of dollars siphoned off.
That is also done routinely to "use up" funds at the end of the fiscal year, so they don't revert back and cause reduced appropriations for the next year.
Our wars are funded in part by misuse of operating and training and maintenance funds, which is why things are getting so run down in the military.
Dubya ran his wars for eight years entirely off budget. Obama at least tried to include the cost in his budgets.
I agree we shouldn't run our government this way, but it is a serious misunderstanding of our government to think we don't already do this on a huge scale. If Trump did it, that would be more of the same, not some special outrage.
13
He’s certainly not trying to win over any new fans though. He’s purposefully falling back on his base. He doesn’t care at all about new fans, just keeping the ones he has.
23
@Kristina Nivus -- He won last time, with these numbers. If he keeps that, he's at least in range next time. That is better than some Presidents have managed.
Democrats could blow it again. They really could just do it again, for another four years. The lessons of failure are not even acknowledged, much less learned from with a better way coming next time. Instead, we get "we was robbed" in the determination to do it all again the same way.
5
@Mark Thomason If there's one thing Democrats do really well, it's snatch defeat from the jaws of victory :/
"there is not much reason to think that the base, alone, is enough for the president to win re-election in a one-on-one race against a viable Democratic candidate"
Think long and hard about this observation if you are a Democrat, progressive, liberal, or independent. Those looking to save the nation from Trump & McConnell must unite behind the Democratic alternative in 2020. No third parties with no chance to win. In 2018 voter turnout was high and third party distractions were nonexistent - of the only 2 candidates with a chance to win, voters simply chose the candidate who was far closer to their views, and the Democrats won by close to 10 million votes. Unless you are one of the Trump 40%, ANY Democrat even mentioned for President at this point is an infinitely better choice than Trump. Let's have a spirited primary contest and then stand strongly behind the winner, no matter who it is.
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@Frank Roseavelt -- That applies equally to the Democratic candidate. The base alone won't be enough.
The Democrats need to understand and get support from Independents. They are not to be found all off to the right, mid-way toward the Republicans. That is a complete misunderstanding of the independents. Ask Bernie Sanders, who got their support from other other direction.
7
My only concern is a lack of support for the Progressive platform or anything with the word, Socialist, in its name even if state control is not part of the definition. The country in general is not ready for it. I think a moderate platform and a candidate who polls to win would enhance the chance to defeat a Trump candidacy. So might the Mueller report. Your ideas for how to win are fresh and excellent; I hope the party will see it that way, too.
7
@Alphabetty -- "My only concern is a lack of support for the Progressive platform"
That is exactly the sort of thing that an enthused campaign can turn into a virtue, as we do the 4-year remake of the "truths" of a Presidential campaign. We've already changed that a Catholic can't win, a divorced man can't win, and even a black man can't win.
"The relationship between support for the president and the wall is so tight that it’s hard not to wonder whether, at least for now, support for the wall is simply a function of support for the president. In other words, attitudes about President Trump might drive attitudes about the wall, rather than the other way around."
Of course! Everyone knows this is the president's signature issue, what he turns to over and over to gin up his
supporters.
This is why McConnell's Senatorial machinations are so critical and so puzzling. To think at the very least Mitch has said nothing (despite the polling algorithms reported on this crisis), is headscratching unless you accept the GOP elephant in the room: that Mitch has been promised something for protecting Trump"s flank over wallnfunding.
.
67
@ChristineMcM Right, this shutdown is about McConnell but also about the majority sticking together. I don't think McConnell could withstand a mutiny of the Republican Senate.
23
@Potter
I've already written to my Republican senator (Rob Portman) to push him to call for a vote on the House's bill(s). My hope is anyone who has Republican senators will do the same.
1
@ conspiracy theory of the day. Mitch is worried about Elenas job
As the 2020 presidential campaign evolves, Republican party billionaire donors and their strategists will recognize the depth bomb of a Trump candidacy. You will then see Republican Senators backing away from Trump initiatives and confronting him on party ideology. Rather than lose the nomination, Trump will 'decide' not to run.
Late night comedians will be inconsolable.
15
@john
As appealing as that sounds, I don't think the RNC would risk losing to the opposition. Rather, they would pull out their book and work on convincing the Independents why keeping Trump is a good idea.
It is the Independents who are key to the next election.
10
@john the truth is the Democrats are no less appealing. There are some very dangerous people and ideas that are taking root on the democratic left that must never be given a chance to take root.
@john Wishful thinking, John. The only way trump can avoid being indicted is by staying in office. He will run, and means to win, by any means necessary. For him, it's do or die. He faces personal ruin if he loses in 2020. He will be unrestrained by the Constitution or patriotism. Treachery and treason will be his tools. Lies, illegality, his mob and their guns, and Russian internet trolls will be his allies. I have no trouble imagining massive right wing violent, lethal civil disorder on election day, martial law, and a trump declared "national emergency" cancelling the elections. As always GOP jackdaws at every political level and on the courts will submit to, and enable, him. I hope I'm wrong, but fear I'm right.
It is quite clear that Putin and company identified a critical weakness in the government that could be exploited. Trump has long favored and looked forward to a government shutdown. The cause of it never mattered.
59
It would seem the wall is only going to have limited effect on the 2020 election, unless something radical changes in the meantime. Trump's supporters are locked onto him, and a fair number of his enemies are locked into opposing him. The question is can Democrats agree on a candidate that, even with wall to wall MSM coverage, will attract enough support to overcome Trump? For now that's debatable.
11
I seems to be widely known that there is going to be a recession in a year or so . If comes by early 2020 Trump will not be running again. If it comes after Trump is renominated he will be easily beaten in the election.
20
@Harveyko
We've watched him manipulate Wall St for the past two years--none of it for long term. There is no reason to believe he wouldn't do it for the election, regardless of the consequences down the road.
"...there is not much reason to think that the base, alone, is enough for the president to win re-election in a one-on-one race against a viable Democratic candidate"
There's the potential problem - a viable Democratic candidate. If the Democrats nominate a candidate who turns off a lot of people, for whatever reason, it's likely to be a repeat of 2016. People who don't like either candidate will stay home or vote for some third party, giving the election to Trump.
17
@PJ -- I would phrase it "who does not turn on enough people."
People actively driven away are of course the road to defeat, as you say. But to win, a candidate needs actual enthusiasm from a rather large group of people.
That is what Bernie had. From a very different group, that is what Trump had and still has, as 538 explains here.
Who might have it next time, and more so than Trump? I can think of a number of possible answers. I can also think of other luke-warm candidates who won't generate the enthusiasm needed.
3
I really think Biden, along with a young progressive running mate, would be a good bet to win. Biden has a bit of baggage, but I don't think he really turns a lot of people off, in the way that you describe.
1
Yes, and the Democrats are on their way to do just that. The more Trump digs in, the more radical a candidate will the Democrats field.
That will be their undoing again.
But Trump's base is huge and spans across the most important electoral states in the nation.
Which brought him victory in 2016.
So all the president has to do in 2020 is maintain and build upon his most devoted followers in the states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that matter.
And let Democrats go after the California, New York and Illinois votes that the electoral college has made meaningless.
25
@Rolf His base is not 47% of the voters. Many people saw Trump as a unknown. Well he is definitely a known quality now. and that was revealed in 2018. Do you honestly believe he will carry 47% of the electorate. I suspect he will lose all states he won by 3-4% or less. Trump 2020 is going to be a much harder sell to most Americans, He will have is well choreographed rallies but most people are tired of them and see then as Trump political theater not politics. He will not have the slim winning margins he got in WS, MI and PA. What he does have is a lot of money and deep deep extremest Conservative billionaires open checkbooks. The question: will that be enough?
158
@Rolf -- Bernie won Michigan before Trump did. The vote twice was "not Hillary."
Don't do it again. Don't think it is all about Trump, or all about finding a "center" that is Republican Lite.
3
@GUANNA -- "Trump 2020 is going to be a much harder sell to most Americans"
Will the Democrat 2020 be a better sell to most Americans than was Hillary 2016? She could be, easily. But that is not automatic.
An excess focus on Trump can lead to a serious mistake, doing it all again to the shock and surprise of those who just can't believe Trump could possibly win (again).
Don't do it again.
3
Trump on Fox News talking about who gets fired because of a government shutdown;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=vv3lI7Qmxzw
Be a Man, own it Trump.
33
@Russ He already owns it. He deliberatelu nixed a compromise he already agreed to. He changed his mind. How can he not own this. The GOP is sticking by him, but it is more GOP damage control at this point, He told America he would be prod to own the shutdown it he didn't get his way, after he broke his own agreement.
Never forget Id Rush and Coulter said nothing we would not have this Trump shutdown.
55
@More like a shakedown
Trump only cares about his base and polls in Russia, duhhhhhhh...
33
When 41% of Americans still support Trump, don't worry about Trump. Worry about America.
714
@Mike -- "When 41% of Americans still support Trump" worry about how his opponents are not getting it, not getting that support even against Trump. What are they doing wrong? They managed to lose to Trump before, and still think they made no mistakes, it is all Putin's fault.
6
Sorry... but if Trump's base is remaining steady then Democrats are not doing their job well enough. They are not getting the message out effectively. Certainly, Democrats are missing opportunities with Schumer and Pelosi as their "leaders." The response from Pelosi (with Schumer standing by her side mute) to Trump's televised appearance last week was downright frightening. Democrats are not winning any new support with them as representatives. The Democrats need bolder, articulate, charismatic leaders who can reach more Americans.
6
@Mike
30% of Americans can be convinced of anything. It's that other 11% that has me baffled.
4
Enough about the wall - give the dimwit something, but let's get innocent, hard-working, dedicated people back to work so they can survive. Our president and the GOP leadership are derelict and shamefully allowing this charade to continue for no reason other than to placate a shrinking base who hopefully are able to see how they have been conned by a liar and a party of voiceless cowardly GOP legislators led by McConnell and lap dog Pence.
45
@Horseshoe The only problem with giving him his wall, is that he will use this tactic when ever he needs to boost his ego
@Horseshoe Crab Yes! And the Dems should make it clear over and over that they are giving the toddler what he wants only to stop the damage and suffering his tantrum is causing good people.
Never under estimate the capacity of the Dems to nominate a poor candidate and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory
57
@Cranston Snord -- Hubris. The Democrats are more and more vulnerable to that as they spin themselves up against Trump.
4
@Cranston Snord watch them make the same mistake with warren
@Cranston Snord
Oh, that is a deep deep fear I have. Combined with Trumps base all located in those electoral college states that upend elections
Trump is just a slightly smoother Steve King.
25
@Mike -- Except there is nothing smooth about Trump. Nothing at all.
He is doing this without smoothing or soothing anybody.
His method is entirely different. His method is quite vulnerable and has serious defects, but those become apparent only when understood for what they are. Not smooth.
2
The map is interesting. Why do people in Alabama and West Virginia care so much about building a wall? It seems like the Confederate States of America are the biggest supporters of the Wall. Food for thought?
108
I’m actually rather amazed that so many few people actually seem surprised/puzzled by this phenomenon (or at least I assume so, based on the relatively high number of “likes” it has received).
The article pointed out that support for the Wall correlates with support for Trump. I’m fairly sure those states are rather strongly pro-Trump.
I think I’ve read that support for Trump’s Wall is associated with support for the Republican Party. Somehow I feel marginally confident that these are pro-GOP states & perhaps they’re more “REPUBLICAN” than certain other “Republican” states. If you get my drift.
Perhaps support for the Wall also correlates with a population that believes whatever Trump & many on FOX, etc. tell them? I suspect residents of those states are far more likely to believe Trump’s commands than are residents of Maryland.
There are many other admittedly stereotypical comments I could make about the populations of these states to help explain their support for Trump and/or his Wall, but I don’t think I should have to.
24
@joe let’s not perpetuate the misconception that West Virginia was a confederate state.
1
@joe
Racial animus. White rage.
It is apparent to me that President Trump is not the leader of this country. The real leaders are conservative television hosts like Tucker Carlson, Rush Limbaugh, and Sean Hannity. Trump is an ineffective puppet, and these puppeteers are the ones pulling his strings, and Mitch McConnell is unwilling to cut them.
Trump’s refusal to fund the government to end the longest shutdown in US history, as demanded by these so called pundits, shows how weak and unhinged Trump is. That scares me.
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@Greg
You forgot to mention Vladimir Putin.
1
He is an unprincipled, weak and very insecure toddler.
But we have known that from day 1.
Today's issue of Texas Monthly has an article about all the people, Republicans and Democrats, who are opposed to the Wall along the border. These include public officials, ranchers, property owners, and business owners.
https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/will-hurd-isnt-the-only-texas-official-who-opposes-the-border-wall/.
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@judopp
90% of the people on law enforcement want a wall. Those are the people that know best what does and doesn’t work. Why no interviews of Obama’s ex boarder chief? He says a wall is needed too. Walls work.
I looked at this map with exasperation as I saw my home state, South Dakota, solidly in favor of "The Wall." (The state where I now live, New Mexico is far less enthusiastic.)
Why are South Dakotans so afraid of Latinos, way up there surrounded by ND, MN, NE and WY?
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@Randy: the answer is obvious. In 2012, the Census Bureau estimated that 86.2% of South Dakotans were White.
Those states that favor the wall are terrified of the changing demographics of the country, and terrified of losing their white privilege, meager as it may be (they rank 29th in wealth among the states).
Randy, it's because the state where you're from is full of racists.
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@Randy
Apparently, they are very gullible.
2
Trump doesn't need to broaden his support, and he knows it. He won more electoral votes than any Republican presidential candidate since George H. W. Bush in 1988 with a mere 46% percent of the popular vote, and he can probably do so again with the help of voter suppression, a full-time propaganda network known as Fox News, and the Democrats' apparent determination to nominate the weakest candidate they can find. Trump may be a terrible president, but he's a brilliant demagogue.
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@Fred
Don't forget about his hacker, troll, and disinformation network in Russia.
@Fred: We haven't even started the Democratic nomination process and you already have them nominating the 'weakest candidate they can find'. You know, it's a long way from here to the next election. You don't know what is going to happen, yet you assume negativity. Why?
1
There was one Republican winner in that time.
Thirteen of the purple states share no border with Mexico, and two share a border with Canada. Meanwhile, two of the four states that do share a border are brown. That speaks volumes, does it not? Support for the wall really seems to have nothing to do with geography and everything to do with demography.
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Or perhaps “dumbography”?
Sorry, I apologize.
I know that’s rude, but I couldn’t resist.
You mean demagoguery, not democracy.
There are actually many people who are 'closeted' wall supporters. They don't admit that they really want it because they'd be called racist and would appear un-PC among their associates and friends. Same with Trump voters/supporters.
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@JoeAnd there are just as many closeted Democracy lovers who are going to overwhelm the racist and "Un-PC" (that's just code for being racist by the way, your use of it pretty much is a tell) Trump voters/supporters/racists.
People say a wall will be ineffective. But build a 2000 mile wall on this side of the Rio Grande. Then one mile further north build an identical wall spanning 2000 miles topped wth electrified wire. Between that and an identical third Wall implant land mines every 2000 feet. Have drones flying over the area between the first and second wall shooting anyone in sight for this area is verboten to all human life. We pay the North Koreans 100 billion to accomplish this task thus improving relations between our two countries.
I believe Ann Coulter and Hannity will approve my plan and this project will be the envy of the world and be a model for separation of Middle East caravans from Europe. The world economy will thrive.
Putin will be pleased.
Please be open minded about this.
@Buster Brown
I don't think you need the third wall. It's a good bargaining tool. You can appear to reluctantly use it for a compromise.
If the wall is opposed by American citizens then there should be no wall. It is our decision not Trump’s.
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No. Trump is our master leader. Opposing him just leads to turmoil. The people are too conflicted to make these important decisions.
When mapping Texas, as well as Arizona and California, one should split the states into bands based on distance from the wall.
I may be 100% wrong, but my (50-75% reliable) gut instinct is the closer you get to the border, the less support you’ll find for wall/fence/whatever spending.
Why? The people closest to the border deal with the unlegally documeins on a daily basis, and know the new folks scared of law enforcement and don’t commit as many crimes as folks who may do 30 days in the local lockup, then go home, not deported to a home they never knew, left 15 years ago running for their lives, or looking for a better life - and after a few years, made it, went somewhere else. Those who know them, if they have a problem, are, I suspect, either bigots or believers in the America that never was.
People move for the same reasons they always did: even the hemesphere’s first residents came - Imagine a group of Ice-Age warriors of one people in proto-China telling another people take a walk East or die!
They spread a rich culture from arctic to antarctic, east to the Atlantic ocean.
Humanity’s been moving for a long time, if not, we’d still be living in Africa where we all evolved.
The problem for newcomers is facing distant NIMBYs who call the nation their personal property.
It’s like the suburban developers’ old joke about “what’s an Environmentalist? Someone who moved in last week,” now fighting to stop development of open spaces behind his/her new house.
What’s a Nationalist?
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@Eatoin Shrdlu
Out of more than 19,000 incorporated areas in the USA five of the ten safest areas are border towns.
Trump's ratings should be dipping into the low 30s, even mid-20s or teens considering: he manufactured a crisis, shutdown the government and economically displaced about 1 million workers and their families, constantly waffles on whether his own manufacturer crisis is actually a crisis; oh and, he's being seriously investigated for the crime of conspiring with a hostile foreign country. At some point all of these, and I didn't mention half of it, facts must have some downward effect on his bizarrely high approval ratings?
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@Tony Cochran in Oregon- Fox Media does a great sales and marketing job selling trump and his reasons to viewers and this may be why they don’t budge from their support of him. Unthinking brand loyalty.
Inexplicable.
Incomprehensible.
Sadly, not inconsequential.
I hear the pigeons on their way home.
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All this is true, but Trump can't do anything different. He is living in his own world of unreality where Putin and his pals didn't get him elected, that the people at rallies do actually love him and at his inauguration was the greatest crowd ever. In his world, he, the 'stable genius' ruling by his gut (because his 'gut is better than anybody else's brain'), can conquer complex problems all by himself with foreign dictators because he is such a great deal maker. In his alternative world, we don't need to be concerned about climate change, poverty, education or finding decent jobs, because we just have to believe him that they are all things he's looked into and has wonderful wins in store. Afterall, we are supposed to be 'tired of winning'. Trump doesn't think we should be overly concerned by the government shutdown, because 'people will make adjustments, they always do'. Please don't worry about gun violence because he is another 'law and order' Republican president that will keep your family safe. Really, in Trump world, the only thing you really should be concerned about, since he has taken care of nuclear weapons in the hands of dictators single-handedly, is immigrants, especially those hordes trying to come across the Southern border. Reality bites doesn't it!
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@GraceNeeded Now I am really worried! If Trump really thinks his gut is telling him what to do, that those microbes down there have a more meaningful voice than his brain, America is in worse trouble than I thought. This is worse than Reagan's wife consulting her psychic while her husband was in power.
I'm hearing some GOP senators and representatives argue that Democrats should just give Trump his $5B so the government can reopen. They strongly imply that he will not do anything successful with it -- he'll just spend the $5B but there will not a wall. That actually is one of my primary concerns: the $5B is a slush fund for Trump to spend as he pleases. Lots of defense contractors like GE lining up for that money.
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@Beth
Those senators should check their priorities. Instead of demanding wasteful spending (wasn't that a big deal to Republicans not too long ago?), they should demand that McConnell bring the House funding measures to the floor for debate. Then they should get cracking on the hard work of emigration reform and border security. They should stop pointing fingers and just do their job.
It’s all about the economy. Good economy, re-election. Bad economy, no re-election.
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I truly hope America is better than that (and that 2016 was an anomaly).
@Bryant
I suggest you ask Al Gore about that.
Follow the money and the ego. In this case he’s fixated on a monument to himself, the Great Wall of Trump. Even if he goes down as the worst president in history, he will have that 1000 mile long Trump monument.
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@LC
Some future Mexican president will by demanding "Mr. Trump, tear down that wall."
Until it comes down, as the Berlin Wall did. And he’ll be erased.
Let's disregard the wall and shutdown issues for a second. Trump has a solid base (33 %, say) who will follow him anywhere, like the children who followed the piper of Hamelin (paid to get rid of the rats, remember; sort of a swamp drainage really) to their death. Aside that base and whatever solid Democrat base, we are left with undecided voters. I posit that Trump actions, words and behaviours until 2020 (as well as the Mueller report and other investigations) are not likely to sway those voters to DT. They are much more likely to push them (undecided voters) to vote against him. I say that 2020 looks good for whoever the Democrats choose as their candidate. In short, Trump is sinking/will sink his own boat all by himself. I just wonder who he will blame.
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Never underestimate the desire of the Democrats to lose at all cost.
@Denis Pelletier
Most people will vote for the candidate that is not a flaming Socialist. AOC is causing liberals to run towards an unwinnable Democrat platform. You go girl.
What seems to be the case is that Trump can hold around 40% of the electorate no matter what he does. But that begs the question will this be enough to propel his re-election? The coming election will answer that question. But I would also venture to guess that this is not a good omen for the Republican Party as none of these numbers indicate an expansion of appeal for the GOP. With demographic shifts taking place in the nation it would seem to me that you would want to become a more inclusive party going forward. But with Trump and McConnell at the helm the GOP is stuck and will only respond to biases of the 40% and the right wing media. This does not auger well for the future of the party.
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@Ferniez
Perhaps, except how the electoral votes are distributed. 40% may be enough to win the electoral vote and keep the Senate in GOP hands. And the demographics in the Red States may not change quickly enough. The young, the people of color are more likely to move to already Blue States instead of staying in economically moribund Red States.
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@gratis Recent reports show that among the Trump demographic the population is actually below replacement. So while you are correct in the short term as the base shrinks they will need independents, women and minorities in order to cobble together sufficient strength to get to victory. The point is that Republican electoral strategy at this point is all about the current 40 percent and there seems no attempt to broaden base. At some point that strategy will create greater obstacles than advantages.
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This analysis should have dealt more directly with support for the shutdown, rather than support for the wall. While support for a wall on the Mexican border garners around the same 40% as Donald Trump’s job approval rating, support for a shutdown over the wall is significantly lower - in the neighborhood of 29% in most polls. That 29% is Trump’s real base, people who not only think he’s doing ok as President but who also agree with his tactics. The 11% in the middle are the soft Trump supporters, who would fall away from him if the economy turns worse, the Mueller investigation turns up serious malfeasance or there is some other crisis that Trump fumbles. The 29% are the hard core, who will ride it out with Trump no matter what.
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While this article in and of itself is relevant and legitimate, nonetheless it is another element of the reality that the Times is giving the Republican Senate a free pass by continually referring to it as "Trump's shutdown?"
Constitutionally and legally Congress could stop this immediately. It is a choice Mitch McConnell and the Republican Senators are making by refusing to vote to end the shutdown, overriding a veto if necessary. By solely "crediting" Trump for the shutdown, the paper, as well as the media and most commenters in general, simply play into Trump's hand, encouraging the narrative that everything is about him.
As important, it let's off the hook the twenty-two Republican Senators up for re-election in 2020.
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I agree. Mitch McConnell is shielding the Republicans in the senate from blame so far. The press should not allow this farce to continue. Shine a light on their inaction. The Legislative branch needs to stop bowing to the presidency. They are a separate and coequal branch and should act like it. If it is indeed their choice that this shutdown continues, then they should continue this nonsense. Otherwise, pass something to their collective liking and make Trump veto it. They can override should they feel strongly enough about this. Instead, my two cowardly senators from Missouri stay silent except for a few platitudes. This recent unproductive concentration of power in the senate’s majority leader and the House’s speaker over the last few decades prevent majorities in those bodies from advancing bills that can get a bipartisan majority.
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@Chris R - McConnel seems to me to be the wild card in how this plays out. when/if his constituents appear to threaten his re-election Mitch will finally "step up".
I totally agree!!! Its Republican senators who need to be held accountable. I call my senator here in Nebraska, Ben Sasse all the time. Asking his aid who answers his calls why sen Sasse is hell bent on ruining our democracy by kowtowing to trump by not speaking out against his administration. I never get a straight answer.
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Some commenters ask why Trump's base supports him when he hasn't done a thing for them. If they're like his base that lives around me, they like him because he is a white man. They didn't like Clinton because she is a woman. They didn't like Obama because he is black.
It has nothing to do with what Trump does or doesn't do for people. It has to do with racism and sexism.
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Looks different to me among the people I know. What I see is a hatred of Democrats/liberals/progressives driving support for Trump.
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@Dr. Adjunct
I am afraid you are correct. One hundred twenty five years ago they followed William Jennings Bryan but back then Bryan was a Democrat. I am up here in Canada. I know and I think many of you know your problems are not political and can't be fixed by politics.
Almost one hundred years ago William Jennings Bryan represented the State of Tennessee in Tennessee vs John Thomas Scopes and won.
This has nothing to do with politics. This argument is about truth this is the Allegory of Plato's Cave.
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@Linda
Thank you for saying that. I agree totally. For example, where are the Clive Bundys of the world ( they pointed rifles at government agents over land seizures) to speak out against eminent domain? Where are the Tea Party to speak our against the Republicans running up the deficit?
People of color (and many women) knew all along Trump’s supporters like him because he is a white man; The Great White Hope, as it were.
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It looks like this shutdown is going to cause a lot of turmoil around tax time at the IRS. As an example. I pay my taxes on a quarterly basis. The final payment for 2018 must be sent in by January 15, 2019. I always post my final payment on January 1. That check, for the last 20 years cleared in 2 to 3 days. It hasn’t cleared as of today. That means the government will not be collecting money on a timely basis. Should this shutdown insanity persist into February, when lots of people will file their 2018, 1040 returns, and not everyone is expecting a refund, but are having to pay extra taxes, the government will be delayed more funds. And thee funds and quarterly payments will stack up. Literally stack up. Now add to all this confusion to an entirely new tax law and tax forms. The new 1040 is completely different than last year’s. So forget about using last years as a guide for 2018.
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@jwgibbs I tried to submit my final quarterly payment a few days ago. IRS website would not take my money
The big theme here is that people support the wall because they support President Trump, and vice versa. And President Trump's popularity really doesn’t vary much over time.
There is a group of Americans we have come to call the Trump "base;" this is about 40% of us. They like President Trump for the same reasons they like the concept of the wall; this is just how their view of the world works.
What explains President Trump's narrow win in 2016 was that this 40% plus another 8% of Americans who were his lukewarm supporters were enough to boost him over the top. The lukewarm supporters were people such as lifetime Republicans who just couldn't bring themselves to either stay home or vote for Hillary.
We often marvel at how President Trump retains the support of his 40% base, no matter how awfully he behaves. For example, do the base people care about the shutdown of the government?
But how about that 8%; will they still back him if they are forced into another 2016-like corner? Or, have they had it with him, and are they ready to jump ship at long last? Note that for the 50% who voted against him there's no equivalent issue; none of them are lukewarm in any way about their feelings for our President.
So the most interesting question is not whether the wall and the shutdown are chipping away at the President's base. Instead, a better question is if these issues are permanently alienating that 8% that both President Trump and the Republican Party need for survival.
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@Jerry Schulz Actually I think the Trump base is about 30 percent of the voting age population. According to the Census Bureau, there were 224 million citizens in the US over the age of 18 in 2016 and thus eligible to vote in the election. Of those, 137 million voted. Trump received 63 million of those votes. In other words, about 28 percent of those eligible to vote in 2016 voted for Trump. I think that support level holds and/or might be lower. (My sense is that if you didn't vote for Trump in 2016, you're not voting for him in 2020.)
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@Jerry Schulz
I agree with your point of view. With a base of 40% of the population, and by dividing the rest, or by persuading many of them not to vote, Trump might easily win again.
Politics is not only about issues or even interests, it is also about advertising and marketing, and in marketing, customers are known to become locked in (in my personal observation, people who suffer from substance abuse, especially easy get locked in).
Even when it would be proven that Trump is a Manchurian candidate, a puppet of Putin, many people would still vote for him.
It is up to the elites and the establishment to stop Trump; but they have been bribed by the tax cuts. My conclusion: nothing may change, especially when people close their eyes for reality.
And don't forget how long Franco and Brezjnev were kept alive by their entourages.
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@Jerry Shultz in Milwaukee why do you marvel at the consistent support for trump by his base no matter what he does? Every time he does something shocking, rude, or cruel Fox Media explains and rationalizes his behavior for their audience blaming someone else and selling their explanation. They are MASTERS at sales and marketing and his base believes in Fox propaganda as the truthful reporting of unbiased facts even when Fox personalities show up on stage at trump sales rallies. If you doubt this next time something happens ask anyone if they watch or listen to any other media besides Fox and listen to the response.
Just don't forget the power of propaganda, Nate. Particularly in red states that have been voting against their own self-interest for years 'a 'la the "Southern Strategy" initiated by Nixon in the 60's.
I'm not saying you're counting Trump out for re-election, I'm just saying he could still win.
Eeek.
15
I have to wonder sometimes how many reporters actually know anyone who supports Trump. Support for the president is support for the wall. Facts, logic, cost, nothing else matters. If you support the president, you support the wall. I’m concerned about the growing anger and the more extreme reactions see in family members who support Trump, and in the right-wing material they share. It makes me wonder if this is part of a larger plan to create unrest in order to give him a reason to declare a national emergency.
45
Russian propaganda on the loose?
6
China began building its Great Wall over 22 centuries ago. The wall has been renewed and rebuilt throughout the millennia. It is wonderful to behold. On a train ride from Hohhot, in Inner Mongolia to Beijing, I saw about a thousand miles of wall appearing and disappearing as the train rode by.
Magnificent as the wall is, it didn't work.
Mongolia conquered China between 1205 and 1279. The Yuan (Mongolian) Dynasty lasted until 1370. Inner Mongolia remained part of China, and today is largely Chinese speaking. When you conquer China, China conquers you.
Manchuria conquered China and established the Qing Dynasty in 1636. The Great Wall didn't protect China. However, the Manchu language has largely disappeared from China. Although the Great Wall failed, Chinese numbers and culture eventually won.
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If Trump were to build a beautiful wall, like the Great Wall of China, I would be all for it!
At least it would be big enough to lock up the entire federal government inside, including Trump, then throw away the key.
Finally America might be able to move forward again.
Whether the President and his supporters admit it or not, they are in a very difficult political dilemma. Putting aside the pros and cons of his political "policies" (such as they are) his election has both horrified and energized those who don't share his views. We saw that in the mid-terms. However, his support peaked (conveniently enough) in November 2016 and has been locked at that level ever since. In short, he's generated a lot of opposition, but has nowhere to look for a growth in countervailing support.
Now he might try to grow that support by tossing away his cell phone, toning down his rhetoric and adopting a style of government which entertains more options that "my way or the highway|. But (and Trump and those who have nailed their colors to his mast know this very well) any such move would alienate his own base -- just look at the way in which Ann Coulter spits and spews during the President's occasional moment of clarity when he muses about leading rather than alienating. He is in a zero-sum game now, but only on his own side of the political fence -- all of the growth potential is on the other.
This is not a problem which Trump will not be able to bully and bluster his way out of. Which does not bods well for either him or the GOP come 2020.
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@curious
It might not bode well for Trump, but there’s a good chance he won’t be running anyway, because even if he hasn’t been removed from office he’s getting old and tired. I expect Nikki Haley to be the GOP nomination for 2020.
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@Josh Wilson Excellent guess. The money men who normally own their Republican Party want it back, and they’ve clearly tapped Haley, brilliantly, as Trump’s successor. She would make short work of Pence, if he even runs after the money men give him an offer of no money he can’t refuse. In this era of youth and women, Haley would be by far the most formidable candidate out there. Harris should be pulling for Haley, since the Dems would have to counter her with their own woman of color, and Haley seems like a longshot without this strategic imperative behund her.
10
@curious: You're giving the president a 'choice' of behavior and that is a wrong premise. Trump has no ability to 'choose', his behavior is locked in, his transactional amoral code is locked in, his malignant narcissism is locked in.
It's like asking him to be 'presidential'. He is not capable.
When will people understand this? He's not a well person and that is damaging our country and the world.
That is what no one will speak of. And yet, it must be addressed. And very soon.
1
It is not popular in the border states. That fact alone is telling. Those closest to the border arnn't afraid of the hordes. Those far away who have no (or little) interaction with immigrants from Mexico/Central America are. Maybe we need more diversity!
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@Nina I live in Houston - the most diverse city in America. In my neighborhood there are many illegal immigrants looking for work. Day laborers are paid $8 per hour. More skilled labor is paid $15 per hour. All cash. I have several friends that have border ranches. Land in Mexico and U.S. I have not spoken to a single one who enjoys illegal migrants crossing their property. School teachers in Houston could do a lot more if class sizes were smaller but we provide education to illegal aliens children and it has hurt the quality of our schools and in turn education has been dumbed down from when I went to our public schools. In Houston, legal immigrants who work and follow the rules to become U.S. Citizens seamlessly integrate into American society. Illegal immigrants do not for many reasons. Many do not like American culture and regulations. They flaunt U.S. law. We don't fear these people, but we witness their cost to our society every single day.
@Nina
Beautiful idea. Let's resettle the refugees in the red states of South Dakota, Oklahoma, Alabama and West Virginia. Let's show our home-grown slackers what true motivation looks like.
@Nina Amen
Mitch McConnell is acting as a co-president. By bringing no bills that the president says he won’t sign, McConnell converts Congress into an annex of the White House. That one man can do that is a massive weakness in the US Constitution.
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@Mark It's the fault of the rules of the Senate, isn't it? It's the fault of current senators, who could, after all, choose a different majority leader whom they would support in standing up to the president. Sen. McConnell is providing them cover right now. If there's nothing to vote on, there's no primary opponent to remind voters that an individual senator supported or didn't support the president on every single issue. Besides, all 100 senators already voted to keep the government providing services for which the taxpayers have paid, and the president threw the 51 Senate Republicans (at the time) under the bus. The president is right when he says that the money for "the wall," whatever it might be, since he refuses to define it any more, would not be approved in 30 days or 300, unless he holds the provision of government services hostage. The point all of us should consider is whether he has any shred of rational thinking left about border security, the likelihood of Democrats caving, or the 2020 election. Right now, he is causing political pain for his own party in Congress. It is a sign of his extreme weakness that two years into his presidency, he is still afraid that his core supporters, his core mind you, will desert him (and for whom? Steve King?) if Coulter or Limbaugh tells them to.
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@Mark
The Constitution has a few other weaknesses that the Founding Fathers didn't envision as being misused centuries later, e.g. the Electoral College and the unorganized militia of the 20th and 21rst century.
26
@Mark
NEITHER Trump nor McConnell are acting as president here!!
The FIRST constitutional duty of the Executive branch of government is to implement already existing laws, and to do so until Congress passes a new law that modifies existing law, and that a president can accept as new law.
By refusing to pass an appropriation bill, in other words a bill that funds the implementation of already existing bills for the next year, both Trump and McConnell de facto make it impossible for the Executive branch of government to do its job, as they literally aren't paid anymore.
I agree that by attaching a highly controversial and partisan new project to an appropriation bill, the GOP is proposing Pelosi to give up the constitutional independence of Congress, which of course is totally unacceptable.
But proposing this is contrary to fulfilling your constitutional duty as president, certainly NOT acting as president or co-president!
So by refusing to negotiate in such a circumstances, Pelosi is de facto saving the House's constitutional independence from the WH.
Of course, a president should save that independence too, if he wants to respect the Constitution...
4
I have to wonder what the approval ratings for both Trump and his wall would be if someone pulls the plug on Fox News.
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@Alan Brainerd HI, this is an insightful statement. Fox MEDIA is an incredibly strong propaganda machine using modern tools of sales, marketing, and communications to reach and influence the point of view of the American Public. They don’t report the news they “sell” their owners point of view (in support of the White House actions) very strongly no holds barred. They dropped the “fair and balanced” slogan long ago.
1
@Alan Brainerd
So why don’t a handful of the democratic billionaires get together and buy the thing? Or every democratic voter contribute $50?
@Alan Brainerd Don't forget about Limbaugh! Daily disciples on his radio program. Who actually listens to this guy--and the others on Fox?
1
No big surprise here. Donald Trump's supporters have been having a rough go recently.
In fact,Trump's first mistake was to start playing hard-ball with China which is quite possibly the world's biggest consumer of soybeans and pork -- farmers didn't like that.
And then there was that devastating G.O.P. tax reform bill which was a collective slap in the face to every hard-working American who's not part of the upper 1% or corporate elite.
Oh. And let's not forget his attempts to neutralize the Affordable Care Act, his plan to strip Medicare, Medicaid and Food Stamps.
And then there's the border wall...
All in all, it looks like Donald Trump likes losing after all.
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None of this will matter after Muller submits his report.
36
@pbh51, I wish I could believe that this were so. Trump was correct that his fans would allow him to commit murder and not care, and the Congressional GOP would therefor go along with that base. You want an American nightmare? Mueller turns in volumes of clear evidence of conspiracy, obstruction, tax fraud, and other crimes...and it doesn’t make a difference.
14
@pbh51: don't be so sanguine. There is no guarantee that we (the American public) or even the Congress will see the Mueller report. It's up to the Attorney General.
4
@Dagwood
He is basically committing murder now. Just wait, as the shutdown goes longer & longer. Many will die.
I think Trump, if he's still in office in 2020, will be the first president who doesn't get his party's nomination.
When he sees that writing on the wall, I suspect he'll just spend the rest of his time in the White House trying to figure out how to enrich himself.
And then he'll say he wasn't planning to run, to avoid the defeat.
Perhaps I'm dreaming.
31
@Panthiest Trump owns the party now. He is the only candidate because his base will refuse co-operation with any but a hand picked candidate, and happily fracture the party in any other case.
Even if Trump is somehow removed the base will see it as motivated by "the deep state" and continue to look for his guidance, with fracture resulting.
This historically familiar logic generally results in self-destruction for the party and/or the state. The separation of powers exists in part to prevent this.
4
@Panthiest
He'll spend his time trying to keep himself and his family from being indicted.
@Panthiest--You forgot the most important part---he has to find a suitable scapegoat. You KNOW he won't accept any responsibility because he has never done so.
1
Trump's goal has always been to assume dictatorial powers.
And the Republican Party has supported, and still supports, this goal.
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As Nate points out: “it’s hard not to wonder whether, at least for now, support for the wall is simply a function of support for the president. In other words, attitudes about President Trump might drive attitudes about the wall, rather than the other way around.”
And, as we have seen in the President’s Hannity interview at the border, Trump is only reiterating Hannity’s soundbites fed to him. Trump hasn’t a clue about what is going on or whether a Wall would change things.
He says the wall is a medieval concept like the wheel and, he says, we all know wheels are very successful. So much for Trump’s idea of reasoning.
But if the Messiah wants a wall ....
31
Note: The National Popular Vote bill is 64% of the way to guaranteeing the majority of Electoral College votes and the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country, by changing state winner-take-all laws (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), without changing anything in the Constitution, using the built-in method that the Constitution provides for states to make changes.
It simply requires enacting states with 270 electoral votes to award them according to the nationwide, rather than the statewide, popular vote.
All voters would be valued equally in presidential elections, no matter where they live.
50
@mvymvy The states need to enact proportional voting for the electoral college. It’s one thing to give low population states more electoral power. It’s another to disenfranchise the minority of voters in those states.
The Electoral College was a Good Idea until:
States assumed the right to set election law, a concept upheld except when state laws are designed to disenfranchise some “minority” or group or party;
The second-place finisher was not named Vice President and controller of the Senate floor;
We got too many states with 1 Member of the House and 2 Senators, who really only deserved a single electoral vote;
And most importantly, electors ceased being the most honest of parties’ Best and Brightest.
The idea was if a party put up a demagogic lying self-interested bastard known to be, but not yet tried crook, and the creep won, there would be negotiations, and it would probably go to the popular vote winner ora different, distinguished member of the winning party.
By the time the Electoral College voted in 1972, Watergate, the burglary of Daniel Ellsberg’s psychiatrist’s office, and other illegal actions by Richard Nixon’s Plumbers were public record.
And VP Spiro Agnew was under investigation.
The EC was not going to name George McGovern president, because a horrible demagog’s campaign had destroyed the reputation of a moderate who only differed from the center by declaring he would immediately end the Viet Nam War.
They could have named Nelson Rockefeller. Where the popular vote definitely favored the EC “loser”, they could have named the popular vote getter, who had run a clean campaign, winner, and Presidents Gore and Clinton would have served us well.
The billionaires behind Trump and the GOP will use their propaganda machine to drive formation of an independent candidate for President to take votes from the Dems. If they can do that, Trump will be re-elected.
28
I suspect the billionaires behind Trump, especially the Russian and Saudi billionaires who have kept the unbelievably poorly run Trump Organization out of Chapter 7 bankruptcy, will be putting Trump up as the Third Party candidate.
The Republican Party can be accused of many things.
Stupidity is not among them.
I, progressive Democrat, believe the true RNC leadership had little knowledge about Trump’s plans to steal the election and figured him a lost cause - the reason not one decent candidate sought the GOP nomination.
I hope alleged and obvious crimes of Donald Trump will be at least the subject of indictment, and, even if his packed court confirms the untested and unreasonable idea that a sitting president cannot be indicted, or can pardon himself, will make it impossible for the RNC to place him on the ballot again.
The Trump Party will split the GOP, but probably have little effect on the election outcome.
I suggest you stop "assuming" and start doing what it actually takes to remove Trump:
"AS the tax bill becomes more understood, as the debt raises, as government fails to supply the needs of the country, as trumps criminal past becomes more obvious and as our trade war does serious damage we can only assume its' lights out for him."
I don't like the 2017 tax law because it adds greatly to the national debt, but there's no question that it cuts taxes on everyone, including the middle class -- with the sole exception of taxpayers who will be hurt (I will) by the $10,000 annual cap on SALT deductions. For a short while, critics were able to persuade many Americans that their taxes would increase under the new tax law, but American workers have a year of larger paychecks under their belts now.
If "Trump's criminal past" gets reported -- with actual evidence, it indeed will be "lights out" for Trump, as it should be. If, however, "government fails to supply the needs of the country," many Americans will conclude that the proper sphere of government is smaller than this commenter thinks. As for the "trade wars," who knows? I doubt Trump will gain or lose much support from the outcome of his battle with the Chinese. He DOES need to resolve this before the 2020 election, but the resolution probably won't matter much, if at all.
Bottom line, there are two ways to get rid of Trump:
1. Hope that Mueller reports some evidence-backed wrongdoing.
2. Vote Trump out in 2020.
12
@MyThreeCents
The problem is that the $1000 in tax savings a family got in 2018 will have to be paid back on April 15.
@MyThreeCents Trump himself did suggest one other way, in Wilmington NC in August 2016. . . .
I understand that 42% of voters claim to be independent. The remaining 58% divided between Repubs and Dems. If this is true then Trumps support of 80% of Repubs puts him close to only 20% of the total. AS the tax bill becomes more understood, as the debt raises, as government fails to supply the needs of the country, as trumps criminal past becomes more obvious and as our trade war does serious damage we can only assume its' lights out for him.
17
@RichardHead According to the Census Bureau, there were 224 million citizens in the US over the age of 18 in 2016 and thus eligible to vote in the election. Of those, 137 million voted. Trump received 63 million of those votes. In other words, about 28 percent of those eligible to vote in 2016 voted for Trump.
1
From the article:
"Many presidents have won re-election after a midterm drubbing ..."
Quite true. I'm thinking especially of Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in 2012. Both suffered a "midterm drubbing" that makes Trump's look like a victory, yet both were easily re-elected.
11
@mythreecents
Clinton and Obama did get beaten badly during the midterms, but the crucial differences are that 1) those were low-turnout elections (Dems stayed home), and 2) neither of them had such high and unchanging disapproval ratings.
1
@MyThreeCents---But they were normal, sane men.
Trump is not interested in broadening his support. He loves his base, because they are loyal. He expects loyalty above all else, and gets it from them. He's not interested in anyone else. He has shown time and again that he does not consider himself to be president of the entire U.S., just president for the base. That's why he's fighting so hard for the wall. If his base wanted something else--say a national healthcare plan, or improved early childhood education, or an expanded social security system, he would be fighting for that. It's too bad the base is fixated on the wall and not on something that could truly help Americans.
330
@Ms. Pea
If Trump's base had wanted a national healthcare plan, or improved early childhood education, or an expanded social security system, wouldn't they have voted for Hillary and been part of Hillary's base? They constitute Trump's base precisely because they did not want any of those things.
21
@Ms. Pea: I believe that you are largely correct about Trump caring only for those followers who are unquestioningly loyal to him. I'm curious to see how that will play out in the 2020 presidential campaign when Trump may discover that he needs a few additional people to vote for him if he hopes to win.
Trump's base is his base because they see in him their own racism and misogyny. That's who they are and that's what he is.
1
It's ironic that here in Missouri, a state that has two Republican Senators, both of which have issues that voters seem to overlook, continue to support tRump.
tRump has done absolutely nothing to help anyone in Missouri. You can cut the cheese any way you choose, but the hard truth is tRump has not helped a single person in Missouri. Hurt, yes. Help, no.
It is difficult to understand why middle class, midwestern voters would support a person like tRump. Makes absolutely no sense.
209
@Heartland Harry
I'm sorry if what I have to say is offensive to Missourians, but, between misogyny and racism there are probably enough voters in that state to re-elect Trump. 21st century diversity has not yet reached Missouri. Even Claire McCaskill had to tow a conservative line and yet she lost. In keeping with the Missouri ethos she took a parting shot at Alexandia Ocasio-Cortez who represents the future of the Democratic Party and perhaps the nation.
@Heartland Harry the sole reason that drives trump supporters is that trump pisses off liberals... you know the coastal people who pay most of the countries taxes.
@Heartland Harry Their unconscious rage?
Nate Cohn nailed it when he said: "For all of the focus on the president’s base over the last two years, there is not much reason to think that the base, alone, is enough for the president to win re-election in a one-on-one race against a viable Democratic candidate. " One of these days trump and his "advisors" and "counselors" will revist the math and realize that he won by only some 77,000 votes distributed across three states that are now wavering in their support for the so-called wall (which in itself has become a placeholder for support for trump, as Cohn also pointed out.) PA, WI, and OH. All trending. On some level he is aware of this precariousness, which is why he doubles-down on desparate attempts to keep his base with him. To the detriment of us all, the "base" included, even if they can't acknowledge it. I wish some pollster would ask these supporters/fans of his, most of whom are far removed from the southern border, do they really think impoverished asylum seekers from Guatamala, etc. are going to be coming to a town near them any time soon? And does shutting down the government and putting millions of people's lives on hold have anything to do with "the wall" except as a pawn in an extortion scheme?
32
This wall and Clemson University's football team visit to our White House is a great distraction from: Mueller; Cohen; Manafort; Putin; trade wars; tax breaks for the rich; payoffs to porn actresses; violation of the emoluments clause; pharmaceutical price gouging; corrupt cabinet members; cabinet turnover; Syria; Yemen; Khashoggi; North Korea; increasing suicide rate; hurricane relief; fire relief; media bashing. The flim flam man leads our media by the nose.
523
@R. Anderson All that, but you forgot to mention the true humanitarian crisis at the border - that of holding children in concentration camps.
30
@R. Anderson
Maybe you should have said he leads the media by the noise.
1
This doesn't have to be like the UK's problem with Brexit. If all the wall supporters in the USA will register and then pay a subscription to fund the wall, they can have it, or at least get the parts built that are most "viable" based on geography and location where it can be demonstrated it might actually bolster boarder protection (whatever the heck that is). I think once those folks get their first subscription invoice for a few thousand dollars (with more to follow) maybe they will think differently. It's always easy to spend someone elses's money - or the Government's money, which belongs to no one. The problem with Brexit is the UK can't both be in and out of the EU. The big beautiful wall, as a singular object, could be funded by those who want to contribute. I say, have at it and good luck. Start with property where that big beautiful wall is welcomed by the terrified and get it done.
The Donald has sold suckers worst real estate deals. He ought to be able to sell that to the MAGA crowd. Buy a newly designed MAGA hat for $5K each. What a great start!
34
@Rmayer
The wall would require the use of eminent domain to get the land, probably congressional action to clear the environmental objections, etc. etc.
Can't be done privately, in short.
2
@Rmayer. There are far bigger fights in the future than the wall. The wall is not just about immigration. It is about habitat protection which we continue to degrade. And the really big upcoming battle:. WATER. I cannot imagine a government that wants to wall OUT it's water resources. Please excuse the shouting.
All this looks bad for Trump re-election, but it will not matter if Democrats nominate someone too far to the left to attract swing voters, or too nice a person to be able to deal with a vulgar bully.
63
It's interesting to see visually on the map that the strongest support for a southern border wall is very, very far from the southern border.
514
@Stevem
Maybe it is a communication problem.
People in northern states may be convinced that the wall will be built at the border where most “terrorists” have been stopped: Canada border.
Sarcasm aside, about two years ago, before the presidential election, NPR broadcasted an interview to an old lady in rural Oregon. She stated her desire for the wall, tighter border control, and fewer immigrants. When asked if her town had suffered from immigration, she candidly admitted that there were no immigrants in her town or nearby cities and all she knew about the ‘problem’ was from the news. I’d not be surprised if that is the case in all those northern states.
I live 6 mi. from the southern border and I have hard time to define the situation as an emergency on the US side.
4
@Stevem Boston, due to Fox media disinformation.
3
There is an excellent podcast on this issue on This American Life called « Fear and Loathing in Homer and Rockville » (episode 621).
What if Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter don’t really speak for “Trumpettes” in his marching band? What makes him so receptive to the extreme right personalities vomiting their instinctive diatribes? Picking one’s resources is another of Trump’s serious flaws.
17
@Bobbogram
Trump is Archie Bunker with money. Or any ordinary middle-aged or geriatric white American man who is tired of seeing bilingual signs when he shops at Lowe's, tired of seeing black faces on television all the time, tired of seeing the world evolve. It has gone to hell since America abandoned the state of grace it achieved in the postwar years (which may not have been all that wonderful for the non-white, non-male, etc.). Trump has been absorbing the same alternative facts as his base, and now he is in a position to take action based on them.
Why broaden support when all you need to do is incite the support you already have?
The angrier Trump can make his base feel, the more they show up to vote.
15
@Toms Quill
That didn't seem to work too well in our last national election in November. The Democrats now have a 40 vote majority in the House. One of the laws of physics is that for every action there is an equal an opposite reaction. Every time Trump excites his base to vote for him, he excites the Democratic base to get out and vote against him!
20
@Toms Quill That's true, but what is also true, and what we saw in the midterms, is that the more outrageous the president and the GOP in Congress are, the angrier and more determined the majority of us become, and we most certainly will be showing up to vote in 2020. And you can take that to the bank.
25
@Toms Quill
But no matter how many of them show up to vote -- they'll still represent only a minority of American voters.
And we can be thankful for that.
He is a desperate man, who may resort to desperate means for self preservation. We should all be very concerned.
302
@PK
Agree 100%. I'm increasingly concerned since Mathis and Kelly left the administration. I trusted them to keep him from doing something globally destructive and irreversible. Nobody is left to keep him "in check".
8
@PK - agree, desperate and inept. a horrible combination.
3
@PK
Bolton and Pompeo are quietly ramping up the anti Iran rhetoric and even asking for military planning to attack Iran.
Should Trump get in real trouble with investigations of his treason and criminal behavior, it is quite obvious what his plan is to distract the country.
I find it interesting that only one of the 4 states that border Mexico support Trump's vanity project. From what I've read, while Texas overall supports the wall, those who live on the border do not.
The Dakotas overwhelmingly support a Wall on the Mexican border yet they are adjacent to the Canadian border.
In other words, trumplicans who do not live on the Mexican border think this is their hill to die on, while those on the border do not.
Why is it that support for Individual one means throwing common sense and self interest out the window?
279
@Lee
Keep in mind that border states are transit points for many if not most illegal entrants. Their destinations are all over the country. Every voting citizen can legitimately vote or opinionate on this issue as illegal entrants are almost certainly in their communities. Here in my border community of Tucson, Democrats feel good about their magnanimous attitude toward all entrants but the rest of the country has to deal with the consequences of porous borders whether they like it or not.
6
@Tucson Geologist
The undocumented population of North Dakota makes up 0.5% of the population. Even in California it's at 6 percent. It's a relatively small portion of the population. People can have their opinions, but the idea that a wall will fix this is laughable.
40
@Tucson Geologist: You raise a valid point but, as the article points out, support for the wall seems to correlate best with support for Trump.
1
Is Trump's base really 40% of a nation? Can there really be 130 millions people buying his lies and wanting to hurt millions for it?
What do they want? The wall is just an excuse so what do they actually want? They've been taking hostages for a decade or more now, between gridlock and self-engineered crises, none of that is new so what do they want. They took over the GOP so what do they want.
Because right now they are demanding nothing but for more pain and destroyed lives.
It's good that smaller States can't go under the radar, it's bad if they don't want to compromise. They will eventually have to break McConnell, or they will lose this economic civil war noone asked for but themselves.
47
@François
The president is elected indirectly. It is a hold-over from the founding of the United States when there were "slave states." We still have the "electoral college" rather than direct popular voting for president. So 77,000 votes in 3 states (out of 135 million cast) swung the election to Trump. Clinton received 3 million more votes than Trump. There is a movement to change the method but it may not be passed in time for 2020. National Popular Vote initiative.
8
@François According to the Census Bureau, there were 224 million citizens in the US over the age of 18 in 2016 and thus eligible to vote in the election. Of those, 137 million voted. Trump received 63 million of those votes. In other words, about 28 percent of those eligible to vote in 2016 voted for Trump.
3
@François
I didn't and wouldn't vote for Trump but in an attempt to speak for Trump supporters I would say that they really don't want the USA to begin to resemble Latin America with its crime, poverty, corruption, and general dysfunction. Democrats say the USA is part of the cause of Latin America's problems but Trumpers feel no guilt about this and shaming by the liberal establishment has no effect on them. If anything it hardens their conservatism.
Not a day goes by when I don’t wish that we could build a border wall around Trump supporters. They are the greatest threat, to freedom and prosperity, that our country has faced in my lifetime.
Nothing their man does seems to faze them in the least. Even being lied to about Mexico paying for the blight of a wall has the slightest impact on their adoration.
But, we need to learn one thing from Trump’s supporters. That is to harness sufficient anger towards the opposition that each and every disapproving voter expresses their feelings at the ballot box.
187
@Barry64 I completely agree. Everyone is fixated on the wrong problem. Trump would not be a danger to the country if not for his supporters. What self-respecting patriotic American would use some manufactured excuse to get out of serving in the military and then would have the gall to denigrate the sacrifice someone like John McCain gave to our country? Or would stand on the world stage and say that he believes a despot who murders dissidents in his own country over our own hardworking intelligence agencies? These people shouldn't even be allowed to call themselves Americans much less patriots.
1
What if the goal isn't to win reelection but rather to cause a legislative crisis that can be used to justify consolidating power in the executive after declaring a national emergency. Maybe he's given up on reelection and looking to stay in power and/or bypass Congress for the remainder of his term. I don't think people give enough credence to the argument that he is a wannabe tyrant.
93
@mtt
No, I've been telling people he's the wannabe Hitler my late father warned me about. He should know -- he grew up in Weimar Germany; got out in 1932 at the beginning of the Nazi rise to power.
His friends didn't believe his warnings. My friends didn't believe mine.
@mtt
Those taking a more pessimistic view feel this is exactly what the Koch fiends want.
It’s not surprising people being polled respond with what people consider the politically correct answer. Remember November 2016? In the confines of a curtained closet, a majority of people gain courage. Remember DOMA? Even California overwhelmingly supported marriage as a union between a man and a woman. Now you’d have trouble defining a man or a woman in a poll. Would anyone be shocked if voters rejected fluid gender acceptance in that same state? Just like Willie Horton, the pictures of mobs throwing bottles, police killed by the undocumented, with voice overs of children and family members pleading for voters help will be on every channel. It might not show up in the polls, but in 2 years, you can COUNT ON IT.
11
@Jay: People don't want to look at his autocratic desires/wishes nor will they look at the most basic issue here: he is unfit to be president. For many reasons that is true, but the most basic of his unfitness is that he has malignant narcissism which rules him, creates chaos. It's worked for him in his entire private life. Now he's president and it is starting not to work. The unraveling will damage our country greatly.
No one is protecting us from him when he is clearly unfit.
1
@Jay And how does last year's election figure in your "analysis"?
Donald sold himself as a great deal-maker. It has become clear that he is not.
As time passes, more and more voters who voted for him have begun to realize that they we conned.
And as time passes Donald's support in the Senate diminishes because it has become clear that he has no strategy and will not accept advice from experts.
Soon, a tipping point will be reached.
How long will senior Republican senators be able to hang on? A few weeks...or months?
The paradox is that for the Republican party to survive, they must begin to ignore Donald.
23
The wall and the shutdown over the wall are important to Trump for two reasons.
First they ensure that Trump dominates every news cycle. This deprives the Democratic House of coverage on issues that would show that Democrats deliver on issues popular with voters from healthcare to voter rights. The media love Trump and refuse to cover the shutdown without mentioning Trump or in ways that fail to blame the Republican Party. Perversely, this allows Trump to claim credit for the shutdown.
Second, the wall and controversy surrounding immigration and border security resonate with Trump's base. The shutdown over the wall makes the wall a Republican litmus test. Trump can talk about the need for a wall, as he did in his televised address to the nation. Oppose the wall -- soft on border security. Support the wall -- defend America against an alien onslaught.
Republicans have used similar litmus test issues since the cold war. Democrats are soft on communism, they love the North Vietnamese and abandon Americans in uniform. The Dems are soft on crime -- they love criminals and ignore victims. The Democrats are soft on the wall -- they love migrants more than their fellow Americans.
Trump is The Republican President, more than Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, GHW Bush or GW Bush. He's not rebuilding the GOP in his image. He's just another Republican.
November 3, 2020.
32
The purpose of the Democrats being there isn’t policy. Their sole purpose from the voters is to deal with Trump. Contain him, marginalize him and remove him. Keep him from abdicating more powers to the executive branch and protect not only us from a modern quasi fascist movement but the rest of the world from creating a darn rogue nation. Trump and his supporters such as the right wing media are dangerous. They truly want a dictator running things.
Don't assume that Trump plans to seek re-election in 2020. As long as he can hold on to his base, Trump can survive an impeachment vote in the Senate, no matter what the House does. Clinton did so and served out his term with high approval ratings and then became much wealthier after returning to the private sector.
Yes, Trump's vanity may lead him to stick it out despite much stronger evidence of a more serious nature against him than anything ever put forth against Clinton.
Still, Trump's willingness to sacrifice two-thirds of the country's votes in order to hold on to one-third sure seems like the actions of a man just trying to serve out his term, appointing one or two more Supreme Court justices along the way. He could then retire and resume building his shaky business empire.
30
@Smford
No, he will hold on as long as he can, because he knows he will be indicted the moment he leaves office -- there may already be a sealed indictment - and his retirement home is likely to have bars on it. If the feds don't indict him, the State of New York will.
@smford
Yes, I agree that Trump is probably not going to run for a second term. He’s old, tired, and getting humiliated at every turn. It’s unlikely the GOP will win back the house, and he can expect even more investigations into his criminal enterprises.
If I were a Dem candidate I’d expect to be running against Nikki Haley in 2020.
Trump can't just retire. Potential state based criminal charges will be pursued the second he leaves office. Can't pardon away charges brought against him by the state of New York. His freedom and finances are totally dependent on him remaining in office. Beware a cornered rat. They are more dangerous than you would think.
1
Of course opinions about a largely symbolic issue like the wall are driven by allegiance for or against a symbolic figurehead. American politics have always included a strong dose of personality cult, from casting Washington as a heroic demigod to disparaging Jackson as a villainous rube. Data show that we tend to vote for taller, better looking candidates, so voters that respond to hero vs. villain should be no surprise.
4
"If Trump Wants to Broaden His Support...."
Since when has broadening his base ever been his goal? Even if it was, there is no one competent enough around him any longer to tell him how to do that. And, he certainly wouldn't know how to do it on his own.
56
Good analysis. The core issue is whether Trump's false data about the supposed crisis at the border resonates with the voters. For trump supporters (about 30% of the total population), the data doesn't matter. they think the wall is their only salvation from the phantom hordes. For the other 70%, if they actually look at and understand the data, it will matter.
65
As always, Nate Cohn's analysis is cogent and insightful. What is most interesting are the correlations between Trump supporters and their approval of the wall alongside of non-Trumpers and disapproval of the wall.
If the 2016 elections are indicators, it bodes very badly for a Trump re-election, which of course is what the current POTUS has been developing and fund-raising for since Jan. 2017.
The 400 vote Electoral College disadvantage Trump would have based on this issue is probably the most uplifting data point I've seen in these chaotic, dark, depressing days of his presidency.
It would be indeed enlightening to see a similar analysis of the U.S. map based on results of polls asking the question about whether Trump "cares about people like me."
46
I also believe that the wall thing and the related shutdown constitue a no win situation for Trump. He won't convert any non-Trump voter but may lose some pro-Trump voters because of the hardship the shutdown is causing. But, maybe, that's not Trump's intention anyway. His primary objective may be to make his hard core supporters even harder core supporters and he may want to come across as a strongman with the conservative pundits of this world, i.e. Coulter, Hannity, Limbaugh, et al. Or maybe, he jsut wanted to get credited for the longest shutdown ever which after the highest year number (2019) would be his second big score this year.
81
@W
Maybe he just doesn't know what he is doing. Or maybe Putin told him to do it.
@W or maybe a combination of all of those. The thing is, we can read and opine about his motivations, but really he's just thrashing around trying desperately to get of the trap he's in. He doesn't have time to think, and thinking has never really been his strong suit anyway. So, basically a 200+ pound psychotic toddler having a temper tantrum. Will somebody please get a tranquilizer dart and drag him off already!
1
As compelling as the logic and data seem to be here, do you really think that the President is really concerned about re-election prospects? After all, he seems to see the national emergency he's contemplating as something that would allow him to appropriate money intended to deal with natural disasters to the service of building his wall. Couldn't such a national emergency just as well be seen as making too dangerous the public gathering of voters in 2020?
52
@Joe Wisenbaker You have just stated my fear-- that voting in 2020 will be stopped by a "national emergency." Autocrats do that.
38
@Joe Wisenbaker
Glad to see that people are waking up to this very real possibility.
@Margaret Land Yes, and in Trumplandia, Democrats taking over would be a national emergency -- thus justifying, in their so called minds, preventing the election.