Trump should be ending trade wars, not shutting down our government.
6
Could we say that the ancestors of many Americans stole the compass and gunpowder technology from the Middle Kingdom? It is a connected world, Americans. All technologies are exchangeable. If it is a game of technology supremacy, compete in the GAME. What is the point of complaining forever? If in the past 30 years, China was unfair, Americans (and my silly goof Canadian folks) should study how to play "unfair" game. And, what is "fair"? In the human history, there were many unfair events including a storm called "Karina". Was the mother nature FAIR to kill 4000+ Americans?
5
The trade war is a nonsense. In a free market economy, we can buy and sell things as we desire. If it is too expensive, we don't buy. If it is cheap, we buy. Since we print US dollars for nothing, we spend "money" to buy from around the world. And in return, the trade surplus comes back to buy our Treasury bonds. Also, the trade surplus is a direct result of our policy to push US dollars as the "world currency." Without it, we cannot sustain the huge national debt we accumulated over the years. Better to settle the trade dispute sooner rather than later. All the rest of the arguments can be settled between our own companies with the Chinese regulators. They can decide whether to stay or out of China.
3
The trouble with China making any promises that involve their legal system for enforcement is that they do not have stare decisis, and a judge does not have to be consistent with other judges or recognize legal precedent. Each judge can follow his understanding of the law.
A couple of things I've wondered about -- If China steals technology, why not prevent import of the products back into the US and "punish" other countries that import it? In the case of "forced" technology transfer, isn't that a case of individual companies making choices based on their own needs? Yes, it's a high price, but they can choose to stay away. And if it's a good thing for China to pass a law forbidding the practice, why can't the US pass a law forbidding such a transfer? I'm reminded of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which made it a US crime to bribe foreign officials; seems like forced transfer of technology is a lot like a forced bribe, and could be treated similarly.
3
@Gary Brownell
US businesses can get dreamy-eyed about the Chinese market potential and that can cause them to overlook pragmatism and risk. For laws preventing outright technology transfers, I'd imagine there is some precedent for this with products/technologies that are considered matters of national security. Perhaps we just extend that list or add a new category related to vital infrastructure.
2
I fond it humorous that this administration has the gall to accuse any one of trying to wiggle out of commitments and promises given the way our current President breaks treaties and campaign promises. If anyone should be leery of another country keeping its commitments, it should be whoever is trying to negotiate with this administration.
5
Is shows they have to keep their people fed at any cost. They can not feed their own people yet.
China is one of Trump's foils, just as the Wall, just as Iran. Nothing will be resolved until the end of his office. The Mueller situation only makes him dangle the shiny objects with resolve
3
Shades of the mid nineteenth century in imperial China.
The difference is that China holds the upper hand now - not just in the high tech industries but in a rapidly growing middle class consumer economy.
Trump should tread carefully - America needs China more than China needs America.
Moreover, the 80th anniversary of the First Opium War might trigger a backlash of patriotism among Chinese nationalists.
3
If and when the USA public - including manufacturers, companies, etc - decides to stop buying Chinese products because they are so cheap, then maybe the problems will be readily resolved, since we are probably one of the biggest consumers of Chinese products. However, the Chinese have the rest of the world to sell to at their cheap prices and our products will sit on shelves waiting for buyers while the Chinese products get gobbled up. Ultimately, in this globalist world that we helped to create and foster, our citizens' skinflint tendencies to buy cheaply are our own worst enemy.
3
“But the offer combines some real concessions, like lower tariffs, with nebulous promises, and it will be hard to ensure that China sticks to its commitments”. Trust the Chinese? You can trust the Chinese to do whatever they want regardless of their empty promises.
1
Trump is eager to make a deal with China because he cannot handle the stock market going down. China knows that and he already exposed this weakness. Premature closure is likely but the deal won’t be good, just what Trump would want us to believe.
6
Here is my prediction: Trump will finally fold so he can declare victory and distract the country from his political and legal problems.
After all, he did fold in NAFTA declare it a "win". Ditto with the steel and aluminum tariff.
National interest, trade policies, are not in his mind., if he has one.
Besides China can always promise him or his family, of course quietly and behind the scene, a huge amount of loans. Remember the loan that took place in Indonesia?
7
I am sure the Democrats will get us a better deal except they have been happy with business as usual .
5
The Chinese communists like the Soviets before them are not to be trusted. President Ji himself assured Obama he would not militarize the islands they were building in the s China Sea. A complete lie as these islands are now armed to the hilt and commonly feature dangerous encounters with US ships and planes who ply the international waters near them.
The Chinese lie and must be stopped or we will all live to regret the ascendance of this authoritarian dictatorship.
7
El Nino does not just affect the U.S. It is a worldwide phenomenon, and appears to be creating mild drought in Brazil and excessive rain in northern Argentina. The soybean crop in these areas is coming to maturation (pod fill) and indications therefore are of a not-so-great yield. .... one more item to throw into the mix.
2
As much as I or anyone dislike Trump - he’s right on this one and this had to be done. I hope there are a few pragmatists out there who can see beyond the politics. Keep going boys - we are the rich person in their store. We can find new stores over time. They can’t find too many “USAs”.
4
Looks to me as if the Chinese are prepared to make some low-cost concrete concessions together with vague commitments with hard to monitor changes to deeply institutionalized practices. Cosmetic though they may be, these moves may be enough for the president to declare victory and fold. After all, this guy has shown that he's both weak and that he'll go to great lengths to avoid the appearance of defeat or weakness.
4
American businessmen calculate the cost of goods sold as equal to labor, material, and profit. They will take every step to increase profit by reducing labor cost. That is how to run a business. It is the American way. Trump's boisterous talk about taking out low cost foreign labor and replacing it with high cost domestic labor has dropped to a whisper. American businessmen are chewing on his tail. I doubt that he will win this contest.
2
@HenryB
It is definitely NOT the American way to outsource production to slave laborers in oppressive totalitarian countries, that plan on using our wealth and technology against us. It may be the globalist, Wall Street way. But not the American way.
3
Then you should probably burn all of your clothes and smash your iphone with a hammer. And at least give a little thought to the process by which the computer you're using was manufactured. Because slave labor was involved every step of the way.
My point is that it's a pretty easy out to scape-goat Wall Street. But the fact of the matter is that American hyper-consumption, definitely including mine and probably yours as well, drives international wage exploitation at least as much as do capital flows, etc. And, the responsibility for that particular phenomenon, ladies and gentlemen, lies squarely at the feet of the American masses.
6
@Fremont You are on to it, from his Adam's Apple to his toes a foreign worker produced the clothes on his back, and they done it willingly. He, or she will work for a reduced wage rather that than no work at all. they are happy, not like slaves. I'm sure they appreciate the work we provide. I have yet to see a foreign work force berate us for using their labor. Taking it away and they would hold it against us for sure. It would not be humanitarian and we would lose our world recognition for being a kind and generous nation. We could be alone in the world with no friends and that is not good. It would be a cold existence, but hey, some of us want a cold existence. That be true.
2
Those who criticize Trump’s China policy, what’s your solution ?
Xi must not win. Trump isn’t a decent man, but decency doesn’t make a good president. Peace between the US and China indeed is important, but it must not based on theft and lies. CCP is a dark government , it must be stopped and Trump is the only leader in the world who is challenging CCP. Liberals are too utopian, to the extent that they could ruin the US. The US media is way too biased when it comes to Trump, almost like in China - everything must be good when it comes to CCP.
4
Your mentality, which is quite common, sees strategic competitors as an unalloyed evil which must be stopped. The pages of history drip with demogogues who have tapped such attitudes and have wrought great harm to humanity. It was a key ingredient in how we got into Iraq for example. In this case, you give your drop of support here to President Trump's poorly considered, inconsistent and aggressive line with our competitors through out the world. And just as in Iraq, there is still plenty of time for unfolding events to surprise to the downside. Overall, President Obama's patient approach, to build alliances and institutional structures, was far superior to the shoot in all directions at once approach we're currently taking.
8
I've spend over 10 years in China, people hasn't a clue what's going on inside their great firewall of propaganda. The wealth cap is extreme, hundreds of milllions rural Chinese lives on less than $.90 a day, their poverty line is less than $300 a year, that's why 700 million Chinese is "out of poverty", but did the Chinese minstry of propaganda lowered their firewall and tell you that 500 million Chinese doesn't even have grade school education and has IQ below 80 due to malnutrition and brain regression due to lack of education?
Their middle income bracket is only set @ $6000-$8000 a year, you know those 300 million consumers wall street is salvating over and often touting them as "1.4 billion" due to various vested interest? They already spent beyond their means with mortgages on 27x-70x : 1 price to income homes and 3-4 max credit cards where new credit card or shadow debts are acquired to payback the interest on the old, which is totally legal in China, mimicking their "national champions" in what is known as pyramid or ponzi schemes.
They've already spent beyond their future, a future where Chinese economy dominate in all industries.... And here comes the Americans, trying to stop them from stealing techs and maintain an ever growing mercantilist trade surplus to reach that "mandatory future" where failure isn't an option for them.
2
I think it may be that we are all being duped, by Dem's and GOP alike. Shutdowns are getting to be twice a year now. Is it possible the whole bunch is having a ball at our expense? Trump got a big kick out of calling all the shutdown workers Democrats. How a can a President get away with that cruel talk if something of an act was not going on. And bragging that he can extend the shutdown for months and possibly a year. That has to cause shutdown workers to really shudder in pain. What the Devil is going on?
5
@HenryB
The Emperor Has No Clothes!!
2
A trade battle with China would led to great pain for both sides.
But China, I think, can take it more than we. The Chinese, I'm sure, are well aware of what their government is capable of, and so, will be constrained to endure their suffering. On the other hand, I don't think we are. There is no such thing as a military
solution to this problem, as I'm sure Mattis (the late lamented) is aware and as many Americans, surely Trump's base, are not.
And I'm sure the EU and the remaining democracies of what once was the West minus us, the silly Shining City on the Hill, also understand this. I'm reminded of one of Gore Vidal's last
statements as he looked out over of the crowd in, I believe,
Miami , "You're fools!" Embarrassing, but so true .
6
The narcistic egomaniac posing as president won't support anything unless he came up with the idea. Why is anyone even bothering to deal with someone so blatantly mentally unhinged, is beyond most educated peoples understanding.
4
The more I study this issue the more I become convinced that we will be unwise to treat China like a normal country. I do not believe its intentions are good. I believe it seeks advantage, and when and if it gains that advantage, it will use it abusively and in ways that create serious dangers for us.
Almost every Chinese commenter I encounter on these threads boasts of China’s means of extortion, from restricting rare earth exports to gaining control of essential medications or technologies. We have seen China use extortionate methods in its dealings with one country after another. We have seen it invade and occupy territory that belongs to its neighbors. We have seen it threaten Taiwan with invasion. We have seen it block legal navigation in international waters and air space by our navy and air force. We have seen it imprison and use the most coercive methods to indoctrinate and control millions of its own citizens. We have seen it take hostages it retaliation for Canada following rule of law.
This list of abuses is long and growing and our commercial relations with China enable them. I believe short term economic pain from disengaging with China is a better option than continuing to empower it. It is no longer reasonable to hope or expect that China will mature politically as its economy grows. It would be more correct to say that we have created a monster and the sooner we recognize and begin to deal with that, the less of a threat it will become.
13
@Bob I can see nothing but egoism from your words, why you dont mention the westren countries who constantly lunch wars to the african countries and kill the innocent civilians with groundless excuses? You balme China for blocking the propaganda from it's people, why you can't see how your western medias use it's propagnada to demean Chinese Social system? You see Chinese Government threating Taiwan, but you can't see Taiwan was split out of Mainland China Decades ago because of the civil war , you also can't see how USA use Taiwan as a bargaining tool to counter Chinese government.
Finally , every social system has it's merits and also shortcomings, dont use the words form your politican to judege the others. When i was learning as a exchange student in China, i can see the truth that they dont have freedom of speech but they do live in a good and peaceful environment.
2
What is really sick is the disgusting leakage of every detail of the negotiations. I know you guys hate Trump,but do we have to hurt the USA's chances of getting a good deal for its citizens too? Back off.
3
September 29, 1938: “You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war - To Neville Chamberlain.” -- Winston Churchill;
December 6, 2017: “China and Canada share the belief that more openness and more collaboration is the right way forward. Closing our doors will only hurt our businesses, and our citizens” -- PM Justin Trudeau in Guangzhou, China; and
December 12, 2018: “If Canada extradites Meng to the U.S., China’s revenge will be far worse than detaining a Canadian,” -- Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a Communist Party-run tabloid.
Deciphering: To fill party coffers, Liberals are prepared to turn a blind eye to corrupt Asian influence and 'forced labor' money.
God bless President Trump.
4
Sun Tzu
All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Asymmetrically, who has the upper hand? There is no reality in statistics and a stock market that can be manipulated by derivatives.
My opinion is that 1.4 billion consumers have the advantage against the USA governed by stockholders of companies that profit from Chinese consumption and hold political power in the USA through party and superpac contributions.
Navarro and Lighthizer have already been sidelined.
Ross will be tweet fired.
Kudlow.....who's he?
China makes cosmetic concessions and Trump trumpets.
5
Our biggest problem with China is not trade, fair or unfair.
Our biggest problem is that our trade deficit with China is funding their military and diplomatic challenge to the western world order.
The solution is therefore to reduce the offshored production in China.
While some production will return to the U.S., most will migrate to other low wage countries. The U.S. strategy should be to use differential tariffs to drive production from China to U.S. allies such as Mexico, Central American countries, Philippines, etc.
18
Most of the recent comments posted below seem to presume that the Chinese Communist Government controlling China has the right to be a world leader. We have fought world wars to protect Democracy and personal freedoms for all. China,as we know it today, boasts their social model is an ideal fit for the world. So have we given up protecting Democracy ? Do we now believe we have nothing to offer better than the CCP's brave new world? It's nice to read a long detailed article,I agree the Chinese need to do more and they ought to see it as an opportunity to act respectfully. I grew up with the Cold War, welcome to Act Two....
9
Ahaha so funny, are we pondering now how much leg room to give China in the tariff war? If I’m not mistaking NYT and it’s base were screaming against any sort of tariffs with China whatsoever...
Funny how one can change position and not acknowledge it ;)
7
@Al
I agree. On the other foot, the Republicans have been no where to be seen on opposing tariffs, a mainstay of that party for a long time.
BTW, Elizabeth Warren supports tariffs.
1
I really do not understand it. China and Japan each contribute to us a hundred billion dollars every year in Treasury notes that go directly into our general fund to be spent on whatever we want, Together they fund near a half of our military budget, and the money would pay for a dozen of his walls.The debt is so large now that neither country can ever expect the debt to be honored. Trump should be kissing their feet yet he seems to be kicking them in the groin. China could easily kick him in the groin. It may be some kind of an act to fool us into giving Trump points, He's the sort that would pull off an act like that. But why would China go along with it?
10
@HenryB US colonized Japan after ww2. we saw the rise of Japanese economy in the 80's as a threat and asked japan to commit economic suicide. what other option the Japanese had? they did as per the Plaza Accord.
A multi polar world will be safer for all of us.
4
@HenryB This is not quite true. While our deficits are increasing, China has not been a net new buyer of treasury securities for some time, and their holdings are actually rolling off, trimming their aggregate holdings a bit. As to getting paid, maturing treasuries are paid by the issuance of new treasuries. As long the US has the ability to print dollars, the debt will be honored. If your point is that it might be in a devalued currency, that could be true. Or not. For whatever range of reasons, the dollar has remained strong for a decade now, even as our debt has ballooned. As a historical note, the Roman currency remained the dominant global reserve currency for 600 years after the decline of the Roman Empire.
5
@I think it may be that we are all being duped, by Dem's and GOP alike. Shutdowns are getting to be twice a year now. Is it possible the whole bunch is having a ball at our expense? Trump got a big kick out of calling all the shutdown workers Democrats. How a can a President get away with that cruel talk if something of an act was not going one. And bragging that he can extend the shutdown for months and possibly a year. That has to cause shutdown workers to really shudder in pain. What the Hey is going on?
1
The settlement of this will be complicated by Trump's desire to announce a win if his wall goes down. Once again, we can't trust Trump to do what's right for the country--only what benefits him.
4
@bounce33 Hmm - Isn't the fact that Trump has challenged China on the trade imbalances, tariffs, intellectual property theft, and pushed for a level trading environment enough to show that he is working to the benefit of the country? And why no mention of other leaders who paid no attention to this issue?
13
@G G I'm glad he's pushing on China, but can you trust him to settle it in the true best interest of the country rather than accepting less than he should to give himself a win if the wall goes down? That's the problem with a person like him. You simply can't trust his motives, facts or methods.
3
@bounce33 I agree that Trumps motives and methods may be unorthodox, and that he is not a polished or classic politician - but he has accomplished a lot since he has been in office, despite the resistance he has faced. As compared to some who have stated things eloquently and not been able to accomplish much, I think I prefer someone who has flaws but is making progress. As far as trust goes, time will tell. And thanks for the civil discourse.
A peaceful relationship with China is the only intellectually honest option. Does any thinking person genuinely believe that American intelligence agencies are not spying on the Chinese or putting their hands on the Chinese's corporate secrets? In all likelihood, we're doing exactly what they're doing, but we're acting like it's an egregious wrongdoing only when it's done to us.
And the economic problems in America aren't even caused by the Chinese - there's a reason that 1% of Americans hold over 50% of the country's wealth. China is just the scapegoat.
23
@Sarah Johnson
"........we're doing exactly what they're doing.."
Sorry, the West - particularly the USA - has the technology, manufacturing techniques, and intellectual property that the Chinese covet - and steal. Or in the case of some consumer goods, counterfeit.
That's not peace, it's economic warfare.
"A spy for the Chinese Ministry of State Security was arrested and indicted on charges of economic espionage and attempting to steal trade secrets from several U.S. aviation and aerospace companies, the Justice Department said ......"
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/chinese-spy-charged-with-trying-to-steal-us-aviation-trade-secrets.html
Plus, China is neither a free society nor market economy, the US is substantially more of each.
7
@Sarah Johnson
There is also not a huge cadre of Americans in Chinese universities and industry who's job it is to "report home".
1
This is one of the only policy moves this administration has made that makes sense. While I wouldn't have alienated all my allies, pulled out of TPP, or any number of other moves that weakened the US position vis-a-vis China, its still the right thing for the US (and others) in the long run. The one area we cannot bail on is IP protections...that's where US companies make money in the short-term, but they and the US lose out in the long term, which the Chinese understand.
China is trying to use the North Korea card on us...we would have plenty of cards to play too, if Trump hadn't burned bridges with all our allies. Glad we have such a good deal-maker in charge.
14
@Jim R.
Better than our previous presidents- who all took their economic marching orders straight from Goldman Sachs.
12
China never keeps their promises
13
@Shawn G Sounds familiar...
*Cough* DJT *Cough*
3
The US does not hold the cards - China knows it and they know Trump does not keep his promises. The UZ through Canaca under the bus sndnow they have 13 citizens in jail in China.
3
China recently killed its first Nobel Peace Prize winner. Germany did the same in 1935. Wake up people. We who have lived and worked in China know you can never get a fair deal with Chinese. Chinese hate the trickster culture too but cannot change. And discrimination against nonChinese is central to Chinese culture. Chinese themselves discriminate against each other (Han ethnicity favored, the few nonHan discriminated against). Any deal with Chinese must be monitored the same as dealings with North Korea and Iran.
17
@ABC -- Also must monitor any deal with Trump.
Safer to avoid such deals.
4
@Dick Purcell
You have never lived and worked in China for at least a year, have you? American Presidents come and go. The country one deals with is the underlying of the deal
2
@ABC Trump cancelled the Iran deal because he didn't negotiate it and the North Korea "deal" is too vague to monitor , so I'm not sure which approach you are recommending for a China deal?
2
China and America have been in a Mutualistic symbiotic relationship, Trump and his cronies seem to want to change this to a Parasitic symbiotic relationship, nothing good will become of this.
2
Like most foreign leaders Xi walks all over Trump who is not the ultimate deal maker but a blowhard lying fraudster who is not qualified to lead his biggest fault being not taking professional advice . Trump's bombastic bullying falls apart as he encounters a real macho man like Putin and Mattis who could not call him to fire him as a man but delegated it to Pompeo his loyal flunky.
3
The Chinese will promise everything and deliver nothing. Their government can not be trusted. The best we can do is END ALL TRADE with them. Their economy crashes and their military threat dies with their economy.
15
@MP Unfortunately the US economy would crash as well and US military spending would evaporate. as there is no way to fund the deficit.
5
@MP didn't pres. trump tear up the iran agreement?
1
Please see Weijian Shun’s op ed today. We have a lot more to lose here than any of Trump’s folks are letting on. 1.4 billion chinese is a lot of Starbucks’s coffee or anything else for that matter. When you look at it from the potential consumer side, it’s easy to see who is the dog and who is the tail.
4
@dave d
All smoke and mirrors. China has been teasing the West with market access for over a decade, never to deliver. Time to stop taking the bait like fools.
13
I have been hearing about opening up China to our products ever since Nixon went there in1972.
7
the China market is there for those companies that meet the law of the land. you see busineses try to go in because they see some foreign companies made good lucrative business inside that country. if the China market is non existent, the businessmen will not bother.
China should learn that paying ransom under the gun only makes problem worse. Take Korea for instance. They gave in and renegotiated KORUSFTA. Now Trump is demanding $1b more for the troops that they don't need. Keep paying and it'll never end.
6
If China does not agree to stop stealing our intellectual property then no deal.
16
@MIKEinNYC
I found it ironic that now the Chinese themselves consider intellectual theft a problem because they're finally cannibalizing themselves. As long as you just steal from the American devils, it's OK.
@MIKEinNYC apple took Samsung to court for patent/copyright infringements and won billion. please do not perpetuate the myth of Chinese stealing intellectual property.
can you cite one such case and your source?
Here's an idea --claim victory and force China to reign in Kim Jung Un's nuclear ambitions, which can clearly be measured. You can have the money or the buffer, but you can't have both. For the preservation of Communist Party rule, I'm betting that Xi chooses to give up his pawn.
2
Part of the so-called trade talks should be a demand on our part for an outright, supervised ban on the Yu-Lin Dog "Meat" Festival. Google it if you're unaware of this ongoing savage atrocity against dogs in China. Chinese authorities give lip service to ending it, but it continues despite the best efforts of those, including Chinese animal activists, to end it.
4
@Adam until all Americans give up meat, I don't think we have a leg to stand on and instead would come across as judgmental of other cultures in addition to hypocritical
1
350 billion in trade deficit and the export of millions of American jobs... that is the disaster that Trump policies are addressing.
Nothing could be worse than the present status quo.
The presidents get tough and America first is working every day... the only question is how big a win for the US.
13
@obummer
You are correct, the trade deficit is an issue. The problem is, despite tariffs and tough talk, the trade deficit with China in the last quarter was a record high while, simultaneously, GM , despite the "new" NAFTA, decided to close 4 North American plants and build the new Chevy Blazer in Mexico. He simply is not going about this the right way and the only problem Trumps policies seem to be addressing is paying for the misguided tax cuts using the revenue from tariffs.
6
to stop trade deficit requires USA consumers to consume less affordable consumer products from China. China has trade deficits with Germany, South Korea, Japan and quite a number of countries because they produce high quality goods that China buys.
3
Who are we to ask China to stop developing their technology and hence advanced manufacturing economy?
As far as I know the US high tech industry was developed largely with government aids such as defense funding, tax-payer funded research, tax credit and so forth. Aren't they the same as what China is doing to "unfairly subsidize" their own high tech industry? S.Korea, Japan all did the same thing, government subsidized high tech development. In fact, that is about the only way a true high tech industry can be started, with government's help, as no small business will be able to handle the risk.
Are we that disconfident with our own tech development?
9
The US, a declining superpower, is attempting to hobble China, which is inexorably rising.
The effort will fail.
The only question is whether there will be a military conflict.
3
@arvay That's a lovely sound bite but not supported by factual data. China wants desperately to move to a consumer driven economy which the US excels at. China's aging population, shrinking birth rate, unrest, infrastructure issues, and diminished standing in the world due to their aggression in the South China Sea and other moves...I don't think the US is in any danger of imminent decline.
17
@arvay
Im glad you dont run anything. CHinas economy is smaller and weaker than the US. We are still currently the top dog, and China needs us way more than we need them. So for now your statement is false. CHina has been rising but its only because they were so low to start. Most the people in China arent living the dream.
9
@arvay
The United States is a liberal democracy. China is an oppressive communist dictatorship.
I hope we win.
14
It is untrue that prior Presidents did nothing about China. The PTT Pacific Rim Trade Deal got all of the Pacific Ocean nations together with USA, EXCLUDING China. Trump tore it up. Obama put tariffs on Chinese tires, and W on steel. The results were mixed, like now. We need to address trade. Trump is right about that. He is just incompetent in the execution, preferring Showman to Statesman.
23
@Bob Williams
Except the fact Trump has done more and is getting a response shows he is a salesmen not s politician willing to rollover to save face, like all the other Presidents. Trump will go down as a President who made promises and actually tried to keep them, unlike most Presidents or Politicians.
4
@Bob Williams They did nothing that was effective. Trump is a veritable abomination but even a broken watch is right twice a day. What's happening with China is long overdue and if Trump is successful he should be applauded for it.
9
Trump should hold strong and raise the 10% to 25% before agreeing to any deal. He is the only one strong enough to do it.
Obama and Bush and Clinton let China get away with unfair trade practices and IP theft for way too long.
15
Beijing offers us “happy thoughts of good feelings and harmonious understanding of goodwill” in exchange for advanced military aircraft avionics and semiconductor production lines.
No deal.
11
This article could have just as easily been titled: "Trump's unorthodox tactics result is modest concessions on trade from China". Instead it is characterized as another "Trump is failing" article. The degrees are debatable, but the fact that he has *moved the needle* on NAFTA, NK and China--when "normal" administrations that conform with convention have not been able to should at least be recognized.
15
@Mike A. The Times is not allowed to say anything remotely positive about Trump. Even Fox will occasionally blast Sarah Sanders but the Times is resolute in their unflagging opposition.
6
China will never agree to anything that will limit their chances to become a middle income economy. Unfortunately that makes them a direct competitor with the US in high value added industries and technologies.
They only way that we can effectively slow this high tech transfer of knowledge is to limit the number of graduate students that enter American Universities in the STEM fields. We also need to provide full scholarships with Stipends to Americas brightest beginning with an undergraduate education.
17
The US - China economic conflict is a subset of the US - China strategic conflict. It needs to be seen in this context. And the strategic conflict is getting more serious by the month
China has used the $ mailed by the US to the PRC in the trade deficit to build the worlds largest blue water navy, to militarize island after island in the South China Sea and to buy up strategic ports in the Indian Ocean.
Concurrently China build up a lead crucial technologies of the future, such as A.I, and quantum entanglement satellite communication. It landed a space craft on the dark side of the moon, a feat yet to be duplicated by the US
I am absolutely no fan of Trump, but at least he is tackling a problem that previous administrations let slide for too long,
As to agreements with China, they are not worth the paper they are written on. The PRC violated the WTO, repeatedly, and does so to this day
28
@talesofgenji You think that if we had wanted to land on the dark side of the moon that we could not have? Some decades after we landed on the moon? The rest of your post is spot on.
6
The thing that's so whacky is that all the American companies and brands ran to China to produce goods based on cheap labor and export back to the U.S. So when you bought your "Made in China" Hallmark Christmas cards and your Chinese-made Apple phone, think about the same dozen or so rich fatcats that sit on almost every American companies' board of directors milking the system for maximum profits at lowest costs, just remember China didn't put a gun to their heads to move operations there.
72
I agree with those who think that Chinese just need to buy time. Trump will lose patience, he's got none anyway, and will declare 'victory' however flimsy and meaningless Chinese concessions are. This will happen since he needs stock market in good order, needs to avoid disruptions in economy, and the Chinese position is certainly helped by political foes of Trump (whoever is against him is their friend, easy to see who 'they' are).
In truth, numerous US president just slept through the Chinese ascent and muscling, it came down to one Trump to challenge this matter, and for that I give him high-five.
6
The IP theft issue is pretty moot now. They are pretty much caught up in the IPs for industries that are important to their economy and for anything else, they can just outright buy the company or hack into to steal the information. IMHO it's too little too late...
3
The worth of Chinese promises can be seen in Hong Kong - agreements are not worth the paper they are written on. There has to be a way to enforce the agreements, ensure reciprocity and dis-incentivize transfer of know-how and IP theft.
What is a Western company to do if "licensing" and 51/49% are a precondition for doing business?
6
@Kai
set up a company for distribution in China, 51/49 in favor of the chinese partner
then move production to SE Asia and export it to China and the rest of the world.
you get the market, you dont have to give up your IPR
3
Unfortunately, China, like the Wall is one of the deep rooted Pavlovian response crowd pleasers that Trump would throw out to his base. And like the Wall, Trump needs to play that card right about now. He can't cave on China because it would irritate 'Talk Radio'. So any fig leaves that China puts on will only anger the people really running this country.
2
@Richard Mclaughlin
Exactly, this is a pure political play with no underlying substance. Trump has no real interest in fair trade with China or anyone else, and guys like Bob Lighthizer and Peter Navarro are not real negotiators. They are just putting on a show.
Ivanka is now manufacturing all of her product lines in China, and Trump wants insure that she can continue to rake in the billions for the Trump family dynasty.
Follow the money people!
11
Kim Jong-un visiting President Xi Jinping and wow, China is now making concessions in our trade war, based on vague promises. Seems like these two leaders are sharing notes on how to play Trump while achieving their own goals. We can wait to see what Lighthizer negotiates, but I'm not holding my breath. Whatever it is, it will certainly be a big "win" for Trump, just not necessarily for the US.
8
Xi knows he has to give something for trump to call it a win. He won't give anything substantial.
It will be like the NAFTA deal, trimming around the edges but basically the same deal.
33
China has to just procrastinate. It's visible to any layman that Trump is now desperate for a deal, any deal. That's why he keeps tweeting desperate, juvenile, rosy tweets on the negotiations while Chinese officials maintain stoic silence and equanimity.
36
I looked at the calendar. It said 2019 but it sure feels 1929.
21
So, if companies do not transfer their technology through licensing to their joint ventures in China, how do they enter into joint ventures in China? Should they just stay home and give up on the China market, or steal the intellectual property of their parent company?
This is a good soundbite for Trump but it makes little sense.
3
Donald Trump, Sr. claimed that trade tariff wars were easy to start and win.
But Donald Trump played a businessman on reality TV and inherited his wealth from his Daddy. Every business venture that he embarked upon his on own failed.
And compared to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's nation state governing political experience talent and skills ,Donald Trump is " The Presidential Apprentice". Mr. Xi's thoughts are deemed worthy of study and he is a "core leader" ruling with the Mandate of Heaven.
While China has the nominal #2 GDP on a per capita basis it ranks #80 near Bulgaria and the Dominican Republic. China is an aging and shrinking nation with a massive male gender imbalance. Occupying a land mass the same size as America with 4x as many people strains land, air and water.
Socialism with Chinese characteristics aka capitalism has brought 300 million Chinese into the middle class and eliminated 3rd world famine, disease, poor or no education and homelessness. China has no significant socioeconomic political diplomatic nor military allies nor alliances. But about 20% of the human race is ethnic Han Chinese. Chinese labor provides cheap American goods. Chinese consumers are a potentially enormous market for American goods and services.
China's One Belt One Road initiative is intended to offer an alternative to European and American socioeconomic institutions and interests. What is the America strategy?
4
Why don't the USA companies just go back to the USA and produce their product there? Save them the cost of exporting what they produce back to the USA. Somethings missing in the equation. Maybe the USA has to offer tax concessions to any USA owned business that transplants itself back to the USA with other government concessions to make it attractive for them to return to the USA. Government would get their money back in not having to send troops to these nations to protect the USA companies and your nation and people would save on intellectual property being stolen. USA government would save in many ways if all the overseas businesses returned to USA if government made the proposition attractive enough for them.
9
@CK Most American companies are in China to manufacture and sell to Chinese, not to export back to America.
3
I deal with China on a regular basis. Chinese don't abide by the contracts they have signed it means nothing to them. Even my Chinese partner complains about that.
Second, Xi is trying to buy time. China knows that coming 2020, if Trump is not reelected and a more establishment democrat is elected, he/she will follow the advises of people like former Sec of Treasury Rubin who in an Op-ed in this paper few weeks ago was pushing for the status quo that has brought us ere for the first place.
Mr. Trump could make this one of his more powerful legacy. He could be the one bringing China to behave more market friendly. This is a testament of why foreign lobbies and members of the establishment are most of the time bad for the US. Had Mr Trump listened to the establishment and even this newspaper we would not be here today. Since day one we've heard how impossible it would be for Trump to win the trade war against China. How damaging it would be for the US, etc....
If the US companies and the economy has to pay a price for China to change so be it. In the long run it would be worthy.
It took Trump the anti establishment guy to make it happen.
33
@Chaks: To get an entire business culture as large as China's to change to the degree you'd like (respect for contracts, etc.) would probably require collapsing the government and rebuilding it from scratch. The last time we did that successfully was after a World War, and it took a generation of active, and expensive US intervention. The last time we tried it unsuccessfully was in Iraq, where we eventually decided it wasn't worth the cost. How much are you willing to pay, over how much time, for your long run worthy result?
11
@Chaks Chinese don't abide by the contracts they have signed it means nothing to them.
That sounds an awful lot like trump.
12
@Chaks
Foolishness.
You seriously think anyone can "make" China change?
A country of over a billion people - half of them middle class with enormous buying power? #2 in number of billionaires in the world? #6 in number of millionaires? more graduate engineers than America has graduates? a country leading in artificial intelligence and quantum technology? with an economy not dependent on democracy?
5
> But he also said that China had yet to completely fulfill its promises on issues ranging from opening up its market to credit-rating agencies and American banks to accepting credit card companies’ efforts since 2001 to offer full, nationwide service
This is an incredibly dangerous prospect. If thought the great recession was bad, wait until Wallstreet get's their greedy hands in the Chinese market. They will tank the world economy in no time and leave everyone holding the bag, not just US tax payers.
6
Trump said trade wars were easy to win, what's taking so long?
10
It is in China's interest to placate Trump, NK-style.
Both sides get what they want -- Trump claims a needed win (however imaginary) and China gets to return to status quo trade.
China loses little face in such a deal and strategically helps keep Trump in office, which has always ultimately been a boon for aspiring players in the global economy as Trump is dead set on shrinking America's role, presence and influence throughout the world.
Xi can thus put Trump back on the path to Make China Great Again.
The best bet for the USA is to remove Trump from power as soon as possible and reenter a global economy that is happy to keep America healthy and wealthy because we are the high tide that lifts all boats.
41
The problem that I am having with the China trade broo-ha-ha is that it was never explained in an intelligent way. It was all typical Trump. And that was enough to make a person more than apprehensive. And, so far, the results have been predictable—mayhem.
If Trump sees himself as a salesman, he has work to do. Most of the nation has not been sold on the trade negotiations now underway with China. From what I have read of Trump’s real negotiating skills, they are marginal, at best. His efforts on the wall and Chinese trade are convincing me that he is a fraud, at best.
5
@Gordon McBride Despite your disdain for Trump, there is plenty of intelligent commentary on the state of trade with China and their odious behavior.
3
American negotiating team should
propose to set up a mechanism for enforcing the promises including laws
and regulations on forced technology
transfer. Companies being pressured
to share technology could register
the complaint to a joint American-EU
and Chinese agency which should
investigate and stop it. Also the fines
for patent infringement should be high
including prohibiting sales of products
involving patent violation. It is not
enough to claim that Chinese promises
are not to be believed. It must also be
pointed out that US government also
supports companies through Pentagon,
NIH, NASA,etc. Internet was developed
by NORAD system, some cutting edge
medical research has been done by
grants from NIH which companies use
to earn huge profits. There are more
examples of government support.
Same subsidy issue was used against
Airbus ,which had developed competitive
edge against Boeing. Europeans used
the same argument of pentagon subsidizing Boeing. US government
has used tactics to restrict sales of
foreign products on the compalint of US
companies. Bombardier, Canadian company, was stopped from selling small
planes to US airline when Boeing complained, although it didn't make small regional planes but was trying
a tie up with Embraer, a Brazilian small plane mfg. company. We need to conduct trade negotiations judicially but not demand holier than thou behavior which we ourseleves don't follow. Tesla
has broken ground to set up wholly
owned company.
4
If China buys more American soybeans, cuts tariffs on American cars significantly, keeps its hands off valuable corporate secrets, allows foreign investors into more industries and agrees to other such concessions in the final agreement, it is a significant achievement for Trump. But as usual NY Times wants to belittle this achievement and Trump's willingness to stand against China's abuses.
14
@Alex E
I spend 3-4 months a year in China, and study it closely. I see nothing in the article that belittles this "achievement", merely an acknowledgment that China has in the past promised much and given little. It's not an achievement until it's "achieved" and nothing has been accomplished yet. Everyone, even the Times, acknowledges China's unfair trade practices: it's just that so far, nothing accomplished to present does much to change those practices.
76
@Alex E The most concrete promises from China are to return to the same policies that existed before the trade war. They will again buy US soybeans (likely not as much as they did previously because during the trade war, they've opened up relationships with Brazilian producers) and return the US to the same auto tariff levels as the rest of the world (During the trade war China reduced its standard auto tariff from 25 to 15%, as previously scheduled. Because of the ongoing trade war, the US is not enjoying this new rate until now but other countries already are.) These are not victories to the US, just a return to the way things were 6 months ago.
The other Chinese promises -- e.g., to reduce barriers to entry, to respect IP rights, etc -- have mostly been made before, but not honored. China has not carried though on promises like these made to a series of US presidents, and also other to other nations and international bodies. This is the cause for the skepticism voiced by Trump's own trade team (across the spectrum from hawks to doves). If Trump does get real enforcement mechanisms to lock China into these promises, that will be a substantial victory.
Offer, counteroffer. The process is working.
We need a deal that erases the trade deficit, and gives our companies equal access.
That will require not only a deal that can be verified, it will require America to ramp up production to take advantage of any opportunities that the new deal provides. We need to sell them as much as we buy from them.
The idea that China is still a developing nation and therefore needs to keep some advantages is a non-starter. America is a country with large areas that are slipping towards being undeveloped; perhaps we need some advantages too.
I hope our team can keep focused and get us a deal that works, and that puts Americans back to work making things.
10
Yes. We have less than a twentieth of the global population and hold a quarter of the world's wealth, have the best and most arable land, lead the world in energy production, innovation and technology, but please cut us some slack -- our division between rich and poor still isn't Dickensian enough.
22
@D.A.Oh: It sound like you're saying that because we are so well off, we should let them continue to take advantage of us. Am I missing something?
5
@D.A.Oh: Are you saying that because we are so well off that we should keep letting them take advantage of us? Am I missing something here?
To be honest with ourselves about negotiations, it is not just China that tries to sell vague promises as part of a deal. That is pretty common. We do it too.
Sometimes it is the core of our own policy shift, as was "Vietnamization" meant to shift blame for losing, not to avoid losing. It sought enough time and messy excuses between withdrawal and defeat to make that credible for those who wanted to believe it.
Of course China throws that into its offer. It is to be expected, and not just from China.
This is not a reason to be paranoid about China or to think no deal can be done with China. It is just business, as the Godfather would have explained.
5
Thanks for a well considered, informative look at the issue.
Perhaps trade and commerce between the two nations was a policy issue long simmering, in need of action.
But, one has to wonder whether this is the administration to get it done in the most intelligent and effective way.
Clearly, after two years of government by fiasco, they (from Trump on down) don't inspire confidence in tens of millions of Americans.
What was the approach of previous administrations?
What is the strategy of other nations in dealing with China?
I bet a more normal American administration would marshal the combined strength of many western nations and come up with a unified, effective, mature way to handle trade and many other issues.
In 2020, "normal" wins.
43
President Obama's approach was to join in with the rest of East/SE Asia and the South Pacific in a multilateral trade deal called the TPP that would have put pressure on China in ways that we cannot alone.
China is still developing and returning to its normal historical position as a superpower.
And they recognize the ills that come with being the ONLY superpower:
overtaking the US is not necessarily bad for anyone, but hurting the US -- the other main engine of the global economy -- hurts China's future, too.
27
Of course China dropped the tariff on American soybeans. Why increase the price to its own citizens? I would expect China to drop its tariffs on all American products and then just go about ignoring Trump. For example, a tariff on American cars. Why? China makes their own cars, they don't need ours and few people in China are going buy an American car when they can get a Chinese car, even a GM car made in China, for less than an American imported car. In the mean time, Americans will over pay for products sold in America and produced in China.
59
@Steve
Valid point. The cynic in me ponders the possibility that China played this administration with retaliatory tariffs so they could use them as bargaining chips later. When China removes its tariff's Trump gets to claim victory and China goes back to behaving exactly the way it did before this whole trade war started.
This WH administration could be about to get schooled in the 'ART' of international diplomacy and I doubt they are likely to even realize it.
But as I said that's just the cynic in me pondering stuff.
8
@Karl - You are right to be a cynic. I just think that China over reacted to begin with. Tit for tat. But it doesn't get you anywhere. Just like our mothers used to say, "Karl, just because little Stevie was stupid enough to put a bean in his ear doesn't mean you have to do it, too."
8