Brexit is arguably the best example of the failings of democracy (the next best contender is the election of Trump).
The most amazing thing about the Brexit referendum was the expectation that ordinary citizens could vote intelligently on a topic that not even their own politicians were able to understand. This shows that the simple choice of 'stay' or 'leave' was flawed to begin with, and when the question is flawed the answers will be equally flawed.
Nobody, I repeat, nobody in Britain even faintly considered the complexity of negotiations that would follow a decision to leave. The backstop problem is just the latest of those "Oh God, I wish I had known beforehand" issues. And Christopher Fry brilliantly exposes the lies (especially by buffoonish Boris Johnson) that misled many into voting for what seemed the easy and patriotic solution:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYonSZ8s3_o
The above is a short, must-view video highlighting the lies propagated by British politicians favouring Brexit. The narrowness of the final vote suggests a more honest 'leave' campaign would have avoided disaster.
First referendum text:
“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
Since the majority voted to leave, a second referendum should reverse the order and add clarification...
Plan A might look like:
“Should the United Kingdom leave the European Union – under either of the terms negotiated by PM May or the terms proscribed by the EU – or remain a member of the European Union?”
If a majority vote to leave – a third vote to be held within one week:
“Should the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union be under the terms negotiated by PM May or the terms proscribed by the EU?”
Plan B – essentially reversing the order of the decision tree – might look like:
“Were the United Kingdom to leave the European Union, should that be under the terms negotiated by PM May or the terms proscribed by the EU?”
A third vote to be held within one week:
“Should the United Kingdom leave the European Union – under the terms chosen by last week’s vote – or remain a member of the European Union?”
This highlights a fundamental flaw in “majority rule” democracy...
See, in the first vote – Remainers would turn out in plan:
> A, in greatest force
> B, in least force – i.e. many voting “neither”
A simple ordering – the referendum analogue of a runoff election sequence – can greatly incent or suppress voting...
And not a single Russian or Facebook ad in sight...
Said differently, stealth gerrymandering...
PS
Ranked voting resolves this...
2
England's best hope … Whatever goes around, comes around? ... is to petition to be taken in as 'our' 51st State.
But ... no matter the insult and the extremes of 'their' present desperation, I don't imagine 'an England' so desperate as to pursue such a course while Ignoramus is Potus.
(Anyway … we Irish-Americans would never permit the 'reunion.')
3
From the sun never sets to this?
3
It's amazing how the "Irish Question" still dogs British politics!
3
How could the British have been so stupid as to decide such an important question on the vote of a small majority? Surely it should have required a supermajority.
10
“It’s an endless stream of anticlimax,” a reporter told me. As someone who has lived through the "climax" of Donald Trump's inauguration, I can tell you Ms. Gill there are some climaxes you don't want to have.
Your obsession with them ("the upshot was another anticlimax") suggests you think this is about journalists and good copy rather than the well-being of UK subjects. If so, your profession is deservedly disliked.
2
The right wing establishments in both Britain and America have proven themselves to be malevolent freak shows and not just the politicians; their supporters are happy to victimise immigrants, execute blacks for traffic violations and cull waste people via a purposefully underfunded NHS and the travesty of American "health" care with its opioid final solution; and they are totally devoid of economic sense regarding their own interests.
But May, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Bannon and indeed Trump are all truly nobodies, useful idiots. The real players driving this show are the offshore criminals (the Mercers, Kochs, Murdochs, Putin and worse). They're going for control and stripping what’s left of the commonwealth. No trickle-down on offer here, folks! They've got lawyers and accountants to prevent such losses.
Brexit and Trump are bookends for twin national disasters, with plenty of jobs for lackeys, followed by open season for scavengers. The good news is that the way is paved for a leftward force that, rather than projecting nostalgia, is suited to the 21st century; but where is it? Certainly not Corbyn; Sadiq Kahn shows signs of the stuff, but he'd be blocked by a bitter and chronically resentful North (another shattered colony) who would have none of him for reasons of London: reverse Trumpism on the Labour side. Time for a breakthrough before it's too late. Another referendum, please!
3
As a child in Ireland I was taught the history of Ireland, its relationship with England and the world. I learnt all about the invasion of the British, and them staying there for 800 years. Now I’m beginning to think maybe they didn’t mean to stay 800 years, they just couldn’t make up their minds whether they were coming, staying or leaving!
The sad thing is I actually feel sorry for May, she’s having to clean up after the good ole boys messed up.
3
No, Brexit is not a story about trade policy as the writer declares
It is a story about fear and fears, about xenophobia, about manipulation of those impulses by irresponsible self-aggrandizing nationalist men on horseback; it is a story about profound ignorance (there as here) and, above all, consequent animus aimed at others, those from other places, minorities driven always by resentment by left behind people at being left behind.
So this smarmy piece is wrong. This is about far more than trade, it is about what is left of Great Britain and whether it matters in the least anymore. It is an historic, naked slow-motion unraveling of a once great nation and that's a big story.
7
December 15, 2018
Oh, sure the devil in the details. Yet when seeking light and good will for domestic and international. i.e. E.U, relations all must be patient for in this case the overhaul of the trade and border agreements machinery requires precision in forethought and afterthought to conquer the best for engagement with the art of living as a great UK and with settlement for understanding that can deliver wellness for all for the many good will years ahead. It's like a new care and having the read the drivers users manual that can only be a positive productive result in performance and a bright longevity for all parties engaged in what is with rewards, fairness, and just fair and good neighbors agreements.
jja
1
Your man Murdoch said it is easier to bully the British government on its own than it is to bully Brussels. This is one of the reasons for Brexit!
2
The English are learning the meaning of “watch out for what you wish for”. This unholy mess will not turn out well for England.
2
Sounds much like the Boring Important Story on this side of the pond.
The Donald Trump Boring Important story.
In terms of whether humans will survive on this planet, in the sense of overpopulation, climate change, nuclear weapons, general environmental deterioration, poverty, etc., this is the only thing I can say:
This life, which had been the tomb of his virtue and of his honour, is but a walking shadow; a poor player, that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. William Shakespeare
An analogy of Brexit to a television show is clever if you watch a lot of television. Try reading instead.
1
Brexit is a very simple story. It is the story of British resolve and doing something totally stupid and self destructive even if everybody knows it is wrong but you do it anyway.
"Half a League half a league into the valley of death rode the six hundred." Tennyson Charge of the Light Brigade
Well worth an economic Darwin award.
5
I don't understand why information uncovered by award winning journalist Carole Cadwalladr of the Guardian (including the Cambridge Analytica story) about Russian interference in Leave election, Steve Bannon's involvement, and other nefarious activities similar to those in the Trump campaign aren't reported by the US media. For example: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/nov/17/arron-banks-emails-steve-bannon-brexit-campaign-funds
6
Try to imagine what would happen if a similar situation happened in the U.S. You don’t have to even think about this: I did happen. It was called “The Civil War.” How did that work out?
There is strength in numbers, especially if nations want to survive. Brexit is a stupid idea: Period!!!
Boris Johnson is Europe’s Trump. If you follow someone who is “Deaf, Dumb (really dumb) and Blind” you end up going over the cliff.
Can anything good come out of this chaos? Yes. It could make the EU stronger about how to handle border security which is the crux of the whole melodrama. Britain and the E.U. should have a meeting and be forced to leave their ego’s at the door before entering anymore negotiations.
1
I propose a trade: Send Theresa May to America to be our president and America will solve the Brexit conundrums; America sends Donald Trump, his family entourage, and his cronies and enablers including Mick Mulvaney and Sean Hannity. Trump becomes the U.K.'s prime minister.
2
Alas there is always Masterpiece Theater where the British Empire reigns supreme and it is always dawn. And there is always real news on the BBC.
But seriously this is awful for everyone but the still smiling and smirking Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Destroying the EU makes Russia great again. Next up the EZ and NATO.
Too bad the British can't blame BREXIT on Queen Elizabeth II, Prince Charles, J. K. Rowling, Theresa May, Vladimir Putin or Donald Trump. Too bad that America and Germany won World War II and the Cold War.
What has happened to America's closest and most important ally reflects the rising looming return of white supremacist nationalism throughout Europe. And in it's ugliest right-wing conservative fascist autocratic misogynist xenophobic racist prejudiced format.
Euphemisms such as populism and the alt -right only conceal and confuse what is happening.
3
Scotland wants to remain. Northern Ireland wants to remain. Wales may even want remain. Great Britain is reducing itself to Britain. Can you possibly think Trump is impressed with a weaken Britain? All self inflicted and stupid. Another vote please. This divorce is not wanted or warranted!
" . . .The public, meanwhile, grows increasingly bored and disinterested . . ."
Oh, dear, has the distinction between "uninterested" and "disinterested" disappeared from the Times style guide? Where is Phil Corbett when we need him?
1
"The show was about a group of plane-crash survivors ..." No, Lost wasn't about a bunch of plane-crash survivors. Apparently you missed the last episode.
2
I don't understand why the UK voted for Brexit.
I don't understand how D Trump could win the US presidency either.
The only thing I can guess is there many people are wired differently than I am and they can't (or are unwilling) to see the disaster as it heads directly towards them.
17
Brexit is fundamentally about immigration. "Access control" is the leitmotif of our times, whether it is who gets to access your computer, who can get the key to the rest room, or who you let into your country. It's all about access control. It's the result of a world in which movement and communication are physically easy and cheap, at the same time that people are numerous, and space and resources are scarce. It's not pointing to a nice future, and it's only just begun
6
Reporters could clarify Brexit’s impact by researching decisions regarding Britain that have involved the EU. In particular, which decisions overrode the desires of Britain’s Oligarchs.
That might help us understand where the push is coming from: namely, to get the the EU out of the Oligarchs’ hair.
It might be noted that already the U.K. is not fully integrated into the EU, having its own currency for example. So Brexit is opting out of this looser relationship, not full membership.
4
This is what happens when women become executives. They don't bond with men as easily as men bond with men, so they end up working alone. They may do the best job in the world, but they get rejected, and their work is ultimately ignored. Furthermore, other women are of no help to women.
So the men who started it all with rise to new fixes, and they will support each other.
Brexit highlighted why democracy is becoming very unpopular. After the events of UK and France, authoritarian rulers will arise. They will take whatever measures they deem best without consulting anyone. Then whoever takes to the streets will be sent to jail for years.
3
@Inveterate
So we should just get rid of men; so women can bond and decide.
Brexit is an extreme example of the consequences of a move from representative government to “direct democracy”. James Madison wrote about the dangers of this form of popular government—but we, the US in the 21st century, are very much a self-inflicted victim of direct democracy. From government by referendum (see California and its assorted Propositions) to primary elections for Presidential candidates of both parties.
Between 1992 and the present, we have seen a major decline in the quality of our foreign policy leadership. Bill Clinton and George W Bush ran totally on domestic policy—and it showed in their inadequate leadership in the international area. In the current President and his predecessor, the “people” and the “debate coverage” by the TV news networks brought us two men who were entirely unready (or unsuitable) for the office. THe country has grown increasingly fractious in the context of “direct democracy” —where no resolution can be achieved on any major issue (domestic or international).
Before it is too late, there is a need for a serious third party to emerge out of the moderate centrist remnants of both of our political parties. Unlike the UK, which has no “out” of its self-inflicted disaster—we do have a system of government that has largely been diminished by both parties.
Each of the major parties has had a turn at ignoring the separation of powers by polityicizing the courts and by tearing up established Senate and House rules.
1
With Brexit the Brits blew it by forgetting they have a representative democracy, not a direct one.
When Ms Markell let almost let almost one million asylum seekers settle in Germany a lot
Of Western Europe sat up and take notice.
In 10 or 15 years they will be eligible to settle in the United Kingdom free movement within
The E.U. borders
That’s what a lot of older Brits are worried about..."hence Brexit is what they want
2
My mother is 89. She has been a legal resident in the UK since fleeing the Franco dictatorship in the early 1950s. Today she carries her passport with her all the time. She is afraid to speak Spanish on the bus.
For my family, Brexit affects us to the marrow and not in a boring way.
6
Did I imagine it, or was there an article that basically said the Brexit referendum has no real legal standing and the British Parliament could simply assert itself and say “ all bets are off. We, the elected government are taking control of this out of control situation. We aren’t going anywhere.”
There is no reason for the EU to give a few more minor concessions, but even if they did, it would make no difference to anyone's position. Such changes would be, at most, at the margins. The main outline of the deal is on the table. Britain must take it or leave it. "Leaving it" means either "hard Brexit", or, in the immortal lyrics of Louis Armstrong, "Let's call the whole thing off." Paralysis defaults to hard Brexit.
2
"A one time simple majority vote can be affected by rain!" Said Will.
This entire endeavor was affected by the Russians and many apparently traitorous Britons. Everything about how the referendum came to be and what we have learned since it was held says that the vote should be scrapped and rerun with all the facts now known put forth properly. Yet even before the truth started to dribble out even May who claims to have not supported it, was making remarks about how sacrosanct "respecting the vote" was. That strikes me as very suspect as I think on the same day or very shortly thereafter revelations about the Russians being the originators of the idea of Brexit and the source of funding for it came out.
Something hidden is going on here. Something more than an apparent attempt by ambitious monarchists to re-establish the old British Empire.
I think they seek to reposition themselves and Britain with China on the rise and our falling from the top spot looking likely. Getting free of the moral constraints EU membership imposes will make that shift a lot more profitable. The Brits are a lot like my fellow Americans, freedom and decency always takes a backseat to making money especially if it is someone else who gets hurt.
5
Major change in a country should require a super majority 60% vote or a 2 out of 3 votes.
A one time simple majority vote can be affected by rain!
12
@Will.
Which it was. There was heavy rain and flooding.
KV
Why the former P.M. Cameron permitted the profoundly consequential referendum to procedurally pass with only a simple majority vote instead of a super majority remains baffling to this Yank. Our constitutional amendment process, by comparison, is complicated for good reason. Was this aspect just another indication that dark, manipulative forces were at work to ram this through?
8
The problem with Brexit is that it was decided upon by too many voters who had too little understanding of what is they were voting for. David Cameron, who offered up a referendum (largely for political reasons) on the UK leaving the EU, then promptly resigned when it went the wrong way, is to blame. He should be tarred and feathered at the very least. The world has become much too complex for the average citizen to have the wherewithal to understand and decide such crucial complicated matters. This is what you get in the absence of true competent leadership. The Brits gave themselves Brexit, the Americans gave themselves Trump. Clearly democracy has severe limitations.
11
“The public, meanwhile, grows increasingly bored and disinterested in us, ever more ready to turn the page or change the channel.” The British public is bored and uninterested, to their self-inflicted detriment. Had they approached the Brexit question in a disinterested manner they would have weighed the dubious benefits of leaving the EU against the obvious costs and the voting result would probably have been quite different.
4
"Brexit is, at its heart, a story about the technical details of trade policy. It is a debate, wrapped in cloying melodrama, over whether a particular land border should be used to check the quality of imported pork"
That's about as wrong as it gets.
I voted Remain and feel more European than I do British, and I do not know anybody on either side who voted on the basis of what you see it boiling down to.
This is not a debate about details, this is entirely a big-picture thing.
The country is more divided than it has ever been, more so than in the Thatcher era. This is not about technicalities.
Brexit is really an argument about how we see Britain - as a part of a greater-than-the-sum-of-the-parts bloc, or as a country hopelessly trying to hang on to some sort of self image which in reality ended at Suez.
If you want to see an illustration of that, look at the referendum voting patterns by age - the young hugely remain, the elderly leave.
What happens to the pork in your comment is an example of the issues created by Brexit, yes, but it is well wide of the mark to suggest that is what the argument is actually about.
The fault lines on this issue run far deeper than that.
12
@Andrew Part of the craziness of Brexit - from an American perspective - and part of the horror of it as well is that it is a decision presented as an economic issue, when in fact it is really about immigration.
It’s not all that different than the turmoil in the US, or increasing Populist noise in France or the UK.
Aside from the moral repugnance of refusing asylum or immigration to those in need, it’s actually terrible economic policy in the abstract. Look at the article in this same issue about saving the Midwest United States worker, and the Brookings report discussion on agglomeration. These population moments on the top level are really the same thing.
We’re simply reaching an age where people want and need to organize their living differently. And so, both in the US and globally, it’s time to start thinking about shutting down parts of the planet where people live that don’t make economic sense. Ultimately, we’ll likely benefit as a species from having to solve these problems of integration, and the synergies of collecting diverse talent pools.
2
Complex trade agreements usually take longer than two years to negotiate so the UK may have to seek an extension of time for negotiations or revoke the Article 50 notification if the current proposal isn't approved.
2
May keeps saying: “The British people want...”
Except they don’t! They want different things. But May makes it appear that what they want is a simple thing. She keeps telling it like it’s solvable - if people just put their shoulder to the grindstone.
But which grindstone? The public, according to poll after poll is pretty evenly divided. Which comes back to Mrs, May’s wrongheaded statement: “The British people want...”
6
"The most important story in the World."
In the world, as in the WORLD?
The British Empire collapsed after WWII, so what happens to UK does not affect the world as much.
The current Brexit impasse seems to me like someone seeking a divorce but wants to keep intact the carnal privileges. It won't work in the long run even if such privileges are granted.
4
@SV. But who wants the carnal privileges? TBH the EU has been doing that to the UK for years.
@SV
I'm not sure you get hyperbole.
Brexit has consumed the UK. Most importantly, it has occupied 99% of the British government's bandwidth - pretty much everything else relating to the health, wealth and security of the people has been on hold for nearly two years. To the islands' inhabitants this is easily the most important story in the UNIVERSE.
"The British Empire collapsed after WWII..." I thought you guys understood religious cults. This is Waco, half the country not only denies that the Empire collapsed, they'll tell you that Empire 2.0 - based on the modern miracles of British technology, manufacturing, science and military might - is ready to kick the World's butt all over again.
You have the luxury of not having to argue with our home grown lunatics.
2
Whether we’re talking about the British Conservatives’ dogged determination to leave the EU or the American Republicans’ dogged determination to destroy the Affordable Care Act, I keep thinking of this nihilistic exchange between Gordon Gekko and Bud Fox in “Wall Street”:
Fox: But why do you need to wreck this company?
Gekko: Because it’s *wreckable*, all right?!
35
@Ned Ludd
In Trump's case, when asked why he uses a particular (despicable) strategy, his answer (on tape) is:
"Because it works".
1
Kim Philby would have been so proud.
4
Are political journalists really so lazy or incompetent that all they can talk about is process and appearance, with nary a word of the substance of political economy?
7
Enough already. Have another referendum to see if the Leave idiots have changed their minds. If not they deserve what they get, including a tanked British economy.
10
The Yellow vests got their start, and Brexit got its start, with right wing Bannon types using Facebook. A new platform for splinter groups can easily galvanize a disparate movement. Buckle in, the next 10 years will be rough.
7
"Writing about Brexit, for a journalist, is simultaneously frenetic, heady and dull."...."frustrating for those covering Brexit..."
How to trivialize a matter of life and death in one quick navel-mining opinion piece! A boring term: "backstop...?" If that's not handled properly, bombs will explode, homes will burn, and people will die. The nearest Gill gets to the problem of NI is a reference to a "land border" and "the quality of imported pork." Insulting, trivial nonsense!
17
Only one, er ... purrson ... will emerge from the Brexit scandal with his reputation intact, if not enhanced -- Larry the Downing Street Cat.
2
Be cheery. We have the same thing every day too. ours ir Trump. trust me, Brexit is better.
9
@Lefthalfbach I'm from the States and I do not agree. Right now narrowness rules on both side of the ocean. The globe is beyond colonialism, and now we must move beyond the relentless quest for money, "greatness" and "growth". It is well past time, and the clock is running out, to seek cooperation rather than competition between nations, embrace all peoples and appreciate the intelligence and skill we all bring, and find ways to literally save the planet, create peace and end starvation. Cooperate or die, I think.
3
This article seems to be more about the trials and tribulations of journalists than the importance of Brexit including Miss Gill.
Did not enlighten the readers one bit except how boring it has become to report.
No mention of May's rebuttal by the EU Leaders in Brussels on Friday.
I'm sure it is even less interest to the NYT readers especially as a Texas Federal Judge has just thrown the proverbial spanner into the 'works' of ObamaCare.
Umiliviniq
4
There have been a LOT of articles about Brexit. There's nothing wrong with an article talking about it from the journalist's perspective. That's the nice thing about the NYT ... there are articles for everyone and no one has to like them all.
The NYT is also covering the Texas decision. Nothing was diminished by carrying this article, too.
Surely some imagination is called for here? We are living in Alice in Wonderland territory with the Scots lead by Nicola Sturgeon who wants to divorce England but is fighting to stay in the EU who rejected her approach during the Scottish Referendum and Arlene Foster leading the DUP in Northern Ireland wishing to leave though the majority of the Northern Irish wish to stay and Teresa May leading a parliamentary party that are remainers with a leaver membership and the ultimate irony of the Irish Border question which is who is going to put the Border up? Currently, the UK has made plain they see no need for a border which means that it will be the EU making the Irish put the border up which in turn hollows out the claim of the Republic to be an independent state. You can't make it up but only the British could make it dull
4
@Jack Robinson. Having been an adult for the past 40 years, and an avid follower of politics, I know it is not true that the 90% have not been warned about the ever increasing marginalization of the working class, and the increasing power of corporations and the rich.
Over and over again books, intellectuals like Noam Chomsky, and Gore Vidal, and multiple pundits and politicians have tried to inform, alert, and raise the alarm about where things are going.
But did 'the people' listen and act while there was still time? No. The people are no more innocent than those they accuse. Hauling out pitchforks now, and harping back to the old days of sovereignty, are self defeating and destructive knee jerk solutions to grievous, but now global, problems that cannot be solved by any one nation alone.
7
Outright lies are what keep the Brexit carousel mindlessly spinning on an axis of delusion.
The latest biggie from the Brexiteers is that the Irish border is a non-problem that can easily be fixed by technology. The Withdrawal Agreement gives the UK until end 2020 to 'implement' that fix, thus obviating any need to invoke a backstop. And yet the Brexiteers object to the WA because the backstop will indeed keep the UK in the SM/CU 'indefinitely' until a solution to the Irish border is found. In other words, they know darn well their technology 'fix' won't work and they are lying through their teeth about it.
Until such lies are called out, England will indeed remain Lost. Read Sir Ivan Rogers to get the basic facts.
5
In the Times today: “In Britain, a 2008 survey found that 20 percent of teenagers thought Churchill was a fictional character but 58 percent thought Sherlock Holmes was real.”
And yet, even with this remarkable influence of movies and TV, only 1/3 of voters supported Brexit, even with the power of propaganda and widespread disinformation.
Regardless of this tepid support, Theresa May is pushing for Brexit as the “will of the people”.
Nobody in Parliament and no reporters are presenting the simple fact that the “will” at work behind Brexit is simply that of the British Oligarchs who want to continue to run Britain without EU interference. It’s good for BOB: Britain’s Old Boys!
7
"News about Brexit is both dull and terrifying — an awful mixture, and one that, for now, we’ll all just have to put up with".
Kind of like the Mueller investigation here in the US
3
@Steve: Hmmm.... Mueller's investigation has sent some Trump supporters to prison and has indicted dozens of Russians.
7
The Brexit vote was a mistake. Most MPs recognized it immediately after the results came in. David Cameron should never have allowed such a referendum to take place and the results were almost predictable (it would be similar to having a bill to increase taxes up for public vote; it will be defeated every time). But, they couldn't easily dismiss the 'will of the people'. Instead, they had to go through a long, tortuous process of negotiating the exist from the EU.
Now, two years later, public opinion is starting to turn. For a long time, polls have shown that Brexit attitudes were more or less the same as they were in June 2016. But, slowly, those who favor 'remain' are exceeding those who want to 'leave'. Now, the gap is quite substantial. See:
https://pollofpolls.eu/GB/23/post-brexit-eu-membership-polls
Thus, like Kabuki theatre, the British Parliament can now exit from the horrendous Brexit dilemma by having a second referendum. Increasingly, one hears suggestions that this referendum needs to take place given the irreversibility of a decision to leave the EU.
When that happens (and it probably will), the British public won't make the same mistake again.
3
@MVT2216
Indeed the problem started with Cameron's inability to stand up to a certain segment of EU skeptics in his own party, resulting in wasted negotiations with the EU for better UK terms of membership> This was followed by a referendum which many 'Exiteers' used to voice general discontent with EU corruption, jobs for failed politicians of 28 nations (lots of heads to feed at the trough), and extraordinarily high pensions for only 4-years 'work' at an executive level within the EU. The 'discontent' reasoning was faultless, but the understanding of the maliciousness that the EU would present in the 'divorce' proceedings was unknown at the time. The 'pollofpolls' link you offered has a very significant 11% 'unknown' which would swing the final results significantly.
2
As much as I think that Brexit is a mistake, I have to ask at what point does an election or referendum become final? There was nothing in the language of the original referendum that indicated that there would be a second. If there is a second referendum and the "remain" option prevails, why shouldn't the "leave" faction be entitled to yet another referendum? After all, why should the second referendum suddenly be the definitive vote?
3
@LimaTango The UK has always asked for, and received, special treatment in the EU. At some point, other countries have to ask why everyone else must continue to pander to the UK's delusions of grandeur.
Under 'extraordinary high EU pension'. see Nigel Farage. Who only had such high representation in the EU parliament because his own country, that so-called beacon of parliamentary democracy, does not apply a proportional system in its elections - while the 'undemocratic' EU does.
2
Why does England persist with this? By now we all know that Brexit was the product of a campaign of lies - from homegrown disruptors like Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson, and outsiders like Vladimir Putin. Nigel and Boris ran for the exits after they lit the fuse. Putin went on to meddle in the American election. The Trump campaign patterned itself after the Brexit campaign - same small mindedness, same lies, same racism, same Russian propaganda - and won.
This was new then. Nobody saw it coming. Now everybody understands what it was. The Trump victory was a disaster in America. The English are starting to see problems with taking England out of Europe and plopping it in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. But England slogs on.
Just give it up. England is under no obligation to stick with this turkey.
16
Britain excels at losing its colonies to independence yet fails at gaining its own. The irony...
3
@Chris: Define Britain. How does Scottish independence equate to British independence. Remember, Ireland pulled out long ago.
1
From the standpoint of a US citizen, I’ve never understood why and how a referendum on Brexit was ever staged. The English government, as I thought, stands for stability and tradition and not for extremes of democracy. Yet Britain adopted the referendum—usually considered a tool of pseudo-democratic dictatorships (Vote “ja” or “nein” for the Leader) and some extreme populistic Western states in the US—for such a critical decision, bypassing the Mother of Parliaments in the process. How did this happen? We here in the colonies apparently don’t really understand how the UK government works.
27
The U.K. does not have a Constitution. Parliament can do whatever it desires, restricted by informal rules. The US Constitution only allows for national elections at specified times for specified offices. Congress does not have authority to do a national referendum. Such an election would be an anathema to the Founding Fathers.
The solution is easy. Prime Minister loses a confidence vote. The MPs campaign on Brexit. Winning party either goes forward or stops it.
@JMcF
"From the standpoint of a US citizen, I’ve never understood why and how a referendum on Brexit was ever staged."
How long have you got?
The Conservative Party - not dissimilar to GOP - has been riven with internal conflicts over Britain's place in Europe over at least 50 years. A minority faction hate the EU with passion and have sniped, whined and undermined (aided by the right wing press) continuously since 1973. Occasionally, this split has become so toxic as to represent an existential threat to the party; peacemaking efforts have only just succeeded - the last in 1992, by a whisker.
Ex-Prime Minister David Cameron, a genuine Europhile, *may* have taken a high risk gamble to shut up the Eurohaters once and for all with a definitive referendum 'Remain' win which would have brought party peace for the next half century OR, he may have believed that his (then) coalition government minority partners would have conveniently taken the heat off him, personally, by vetoing his 'sincere' desires to resolve the European question. Whatever, he ignored his closest colleagues who implored him not to take the risk.
So how did the Leave campaign get their wafer thin win? Officially, a combination of elitist London hubris and an anemic, poorly delivered Remain campaign. Increasingly clearly, a combination of dark money and the American alt-Right actually swung the vote.
3
@JMcF Υou did. It's Cameron who didn't, and tried to resolved an internal Tory matter via referendum.
I wonder if Theresa May understands the irony in her Brexit proposals? She has agreed to bind the UK to the European common market, under EU rules, fees, and regulations, without any vote on those rules and regulations. Probably in perpetuity.
Sounds a lot like "taxation without representation." History might have told her that concept hasn't always worked out well for Great Britain.
5
All things that Britain is trying to negotiate after the Brexit vote could have been negotiated prior to the vote. The situation as it evolves has one man's signature, that of Cameron. The "continent" is a myth of the past and those still living with that fallacy have no feelings for the majority of the British public.
Britain was, is and will be part of Europe, regardless.
The "channel" is too narrow.
17
Parliament voted to implement the referendum after the vote and formally request separation. It is an Act signed by the Queen.
"The public wants it settled - they want good policy that fulfills the vote and allows us to come together." Well, of course they do.
I want a winning lotto ticket, an easy way to look 2 years younger, and a coup in government that allows only smart people with whole souls to serve.
The job of the journalist, is to figure out how to communicate the truth in a way that engages people; the job of people is to use the meat between their ears for something other than supportive stuffing.
What we want and what we can reasonably get are two very different things. Politicians who promise us the moon are liars; politicians who promise us the least worst solution are at least telling us the truth.
In Brexit? The least worst truth is that a partial deal with EU support won't be good, but it won't sink the nation either.
37
Brexit may come and Brexit may go but always remember, the sun never sets on the British Empire. They will survive this and live on.
2
@JM: I hope you realize that there is no longer a British Empire. Things do change.
7
@MVT2216, Quite right. Indeed. Just a saying.
Long live the Queen!
South Asians and Africans are storming the borders of the EU. ...and then many move on to the UK. Some, perhaps 50%, in the UK do not welcome this onslaught. They wish to control their border with regard to immigration, hence Brexit.
But to reject this out-of-control immigration is brings charges of RACISM. So, other arguments must be brought forth to cover the real issue. We end up with the distorted logic of Alice in Wonderland.
Is my thinking "off base," or not?
1
@Heckler
Yes it is massively off base. The UK has control over its borders for all non-EU citizens. Those immigrants from Africa who make their way through France are stopped at Calais by the French authorities. Of all the nations in the EU the UK is among the the least affected by the refugee crisis. The influx of immigrants that influenced the Brexit debate was white, and from EU countries in eastern Europe.
12
Thank you, Charles Marshal. It is critically important that we debunk false narratives — respectfully, as you have done — with evidence-based argument. Brexit and Trump are two phenomena sold to their respective publics with falsehoods. But many just accepted the narratives at face value and failed to think critically and question the “facts” on which the arguments were based. And news emissions like Fox News in the States aided and abetted, making the ability of the ordinary, time-pressed citizen to drill down to the facts and evidence all the more difficult.
4
@Heckler
Immigration from the EU, that we can't control is falling. Immigration from outside the EU, that we can control is rising.
2
The Brexit vote --where 50% of voters with beautiful BBC accents shot themselves in the foot-- is a perfect example, along with Venezuela and the United States, of how slightly over half a country can be swayed by lies and manipulations and compounded by a total lack of intelligence and common sense. Their kids will be poorer than their parents. Their grandkids will be poorer than their kids. And they deserve every single problem they created.
18
@MSA - Believe me, not all BBC accents are beautiful. The so-called 'oxbridge' accent of old has long since disappeared, and rightly so. We are now subjected on an hourly basis to a mix of regional tones, some of which require sub-titles.
3
The Brits now have to live with the Frankenstein monster they created in Northern Ireland (their last colony). It is quite amazing to see the "United" Kingdom literally falling apart with their proverbial chickens coming home to roost.
7
@Jerry last colony? Northern Island was created as part of the peace process during the troubles in Ireland
Nobody should intervene in financial elites choices. Any nationalist attempt should be brought down.
4
@Roland Berger Do you honestly believe that the likes of Gove, BoJo and Rees-Mogg are not members and/or clients of the financial elite?
Sir Richard Branson said it will be a disaster if passed.
5
I voted Remain in 2016 but I completely disagree with a "peoples vote". As an economist, the truth is that the EU is an experiment and so is Brexit. We should stop highlighting the leave campaign in such a negative light. The decision to leave the EU was made in 2016 and now as a country we should show unity in respecting our democracy. Another truth is that there is huge fear mongering. It is most definitely not the end of the world when we leave the EU, there is life outside of it. Think Australia, think South Korea, think Canada, I could go on. The EU is not essential to our livelihoods, the question is off course in the long run will we be better off my separating or staying and that question cannot be answered right now without biased speculation. So like the EU when it was first set up, let's have our own experiment.
PS: NYT please do a better job at offering a more balanced view. Thank you
3
I have said it before and I will say it again: Just give the UK the same trade status with the European Union as the other three Western European countries that are not members of the EU: Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland. There. Done. Why can't European leaders on all sides just follow the Iceland/Norway/Switzerland example? None of those countries is part of the EU and no one is any worse for it.
2
The UK Brexiteers do not want the status of Norway, Switzerland or Iceland. They could certainly have it, if the UK asked for it.
4
@Metaphor The UK wants a Norway "plus" no free movement of citizens. That is a no go for the EU. Rightly so!... as it would mean all the privileges of membership without any burdens.
4
@Metaphor The Norwegians basically have to follow rules, regulations and freedom of movement and trade with the EU. They just don't get to vote. How is that better than what the UK has now?
1
A bit of an understatement. It will determine the future of Europe, not just "of the country".
5
A slight majority of British voters thought that they could keep the keys to the clubhouse without paying the dues. Now they're finding out that it doesn't work that way, and that they're going to miss that clubhouse.
It seems to me that the main impetus for leaving was the immigration situation. Now that the EU seems to have a better handle on that, there's a good chance that Brexit 2.0 would vote to stay.
17
Brexit is another form of uprising that we are seeing in France (yellow vests) or in the US (Trump) against the perceived perils and ills of a globalized and digitized economy where only capitalistic concerns are deemed important. Anti-immigration has historically always been part of the equation in economic displacement scenarios as well.
We now have floundering governments in the UK and US that rode into power on the coattails of this discontent (and corruption in the case of Trump) only to have no credible answers nor any real desire to address the root causes of discontent. Companies with a similar lack of leadership don't last all that long.
13
@JeffB You are conflating the corruption of Trump's election with Nationalism of the Brexit Movement and the patriotism of the French Yellow Vest rebellion. The Yellow Vest are more like the union movement in America during the Great Depression. Commoners in France simply don't want to go on being uemployed but saddled with more taxes while the rich get tax cuts. The only thing common to these conficts is discontent.
1
@paulpotts But these phenomena do have something in common: the anger of the people left behind by the inequality of the last 30 years. Scapegoats will be found in a climate like this.
British citizenry has nothing to do with Brexit. The underlying motive for pushing a ruinous plebiscite supported by 1/3 of voters ill informed by propagandists is very simple: the powerful in Britain do not want their power diluted by the EU. Simple, eh?
10
Some politicians exploit the possibility of readers getting bored. In my state one elected official, who's been accused of rigging the election, keeps talking about "moving on" and "ending the politics". Translation: stop investigating the the possible illegitimacy of his victory.
10
Its been a long time since I watched so many earnest, politically involved, thinkers, normally advocating for "change".....fight so hard to PREVENT "change".
Yellow Vests in the streets., burning Paris to the ground, why? To PREVENT change.
Colorful people in the streets of London, ridiculing their leaders with creative balloons, all kinds of wonderful slogans, shouting angrily.......to PREVENT "change".
We read through a deluge of articles reminding us of our guilt in polluting the planet and warning us that now is the time to PREVENT "climate change".
And THAT is the true root problem in society. We are all concerned with preventing change instead of accepting it and working to adapt to changes in the most positive, prosperous, progressive ways.....
2
@Wherever Hugo
But change is happening whether people are ready or accepting or not. Change has been accelerating for the last 40 years. Unfortunately, the only ones who saw it coming and took advantage were the 1% and their 10% minions.
They have done increasingly well over the last 40 years by buying one government after another while while distracting everyone else by trumpeting divisive social issues. Now the other 90%have gradually realized that they are getting the short end of the stick and are casting about for someone or some group to blame and finally releasing some of their pent-up frustration. As they gradually come to realize who is really to blame, the pitchforks are coming out.
1
“Change” as you refer to it apparently means only the changes demanded by the capitalistic system. People would be happy with changes that reflected their interests as well as those of the investor class.
5
@Wherever Hugo By your reasoning the Continet should have welcomed Mussolini, Stalin and Hitler, because they represented change. In fact in some cases they did.
Brexit may be the most boring story with far reaching consequences in the world, but so is glacier melt or the endless stream of Trump appointees leaving the White House due to ethical violations. All three are the result of lies told to the public and all three may herald the downfall of our climate, governments and economies. But so what? Its all so boring when compared to all our cultural distractions such as weekend sports or sexual scandles. Not that even that has become grist for our political mill as it seems everything has become these days.
Perhaps we are so overloaded with everything that it all becomes a monotonous drone, but we must some how pay attention or lose it all.
9
Que sera sera.
Brexit willbe a nothingburger for some, a boon to others, and a disaster for still others. In the mix of economic and political consequences, some will be unintended, fortunate or unfortunate; fortune-making, or career-ending.
Why did Britain join the European Common Market-later European Union -in the 1970s? Losing an Empire? Gaining collective security against communism? Hand in glove with NATO?
It's worth rereading Shakespeare's sceptered isle paean to England in Richard II.
As the world turns....
The so-called Brexit will go down as one of the most baffling and needlessly self inflicted socio-political, cultural and economic wounds.
8
The reason readers are bored with Brexit is that reporters have resorted to gossip and reading tea leaves instead of the main story: Why exactly is a vote to leave the EU by about a third of voters driving this unalloyed debacle? The force behind it is not the voters, obviously. What is it? Why is it? Who is going to gain a windfall by seceding?
Why not dig up the dirt, folks? Then have a new referendum when the instigators’ ill gotten gains-to-be are in plain sight.
8
A funny story about Brexit — thanks for the chuckles. It’s a bit like the Trumpian mess over in the colonies. A billion tales of malfeasance, greed and lies, and yet the emperor is still standing amidst the trampled bodies of his craven minions.
8
@MJ2G
Couldn't agree more with the comment about Brexit becoming part of a funny, yet boring story.
As of today, it's details are confusing and ever-changing, so bad that the average person (including the brits) have no idea what is really going on.
Hey folks, does the story strike a bell with you ? It should, and it's going on right in our own backyard.
3
As an avowed Anglophile, I must say that only the Brits could have gotten themselves into such a complex situation. They’re over-thinkers. We Americans aren’t as complicated; therefore, we’re stuck for at least another two years or as my husband dares to portend, another six. May God forbid!!
2
I am writing this from London where I live part of the year. The current Brexit gridlock appear unlikely to be broken without something significantly changing. T. May has put together a compromise deal that appears to satisfy no one. Following the last week of conversations with the EU it appears that further concessions from the EU is highly unlikely. For May to get enough votes in Parliament she needs some meaningful help from the EU. Since there will be no help on the current agreement they could still strengthen her hand by detailing what the world will look like for the UK if there is no deal. A stark and detailed description of what that world looks like and the consequences for the average UK citizen might just be the cold shower that gets people to understand what it means to leave without any agreement. Let's hope Parliament has the wisdom to see the perils of a no agreement Brexit and find a way forward.
23
@Steve
Already been done. The brexiters simply do not believe it.
7
@Steve A very detailed analysis of the "no-deal" Brexit is to be released on Wednesday.
Will it make a difference? Possibly.
The whole thing reminds me of a damsel tied to the train tracks - with the train 100 miles away, moving at 1 mile an hour and occasionally stopping to take on more coal and water.
1
@chris I suspect you are correct as they are living in their own fantasy land. I use to believe this country was one of the few run by adults - but not any more. Steve
Brexit is national suicide for the UK.
It will harm the economy greatly, destroy London as the prosperous financial center of Europe, lead to the likely dissolution politically of U.K. into rump states. It is absurd! The solution is simple- just a new Referendum and end this Folly of extremism and nostalgic nationalism.
70
@IN
I think most responsible people agree that, after all the developments of Brexit since June 2016, a 2nd referendum is the only way to solve the situation in a democratic fashion. That being said, getting another referendum at this stage of the game is going to be very hard. Can it be staged before March? What goes on the referendum? May's plan vs remain? May's plan vs hard exit? 3 options? I just don't know how you put it together in less than 3 months and make it look legitimate.
7
@CD It's even harder to get to a different deal within 3 months. The Remainers want a no-deal brexit, have probably all shorted the pound and are looking forward to a Britain with no worker or environmental protections. That's what's really on the menu.
3
If you journalists and politicians and analysts had only tried to explain that the European Union is not only a market, but also and above all a choice of civilization and what that choice implies and what horizons it opens despite its problems (to be solved) and distortions (to be rectified) perhaps boredom and fatigue would have been replaced by passion and ardor. Best regards from Padua ( still EU )
111
@Flavius
I completely agree with you. The EU is a civilisational project, which is now having some hiccups in Greece (false bailouts which don't help the Greeks), Southern Europe (high unemployment and stagnation, mass emigration to the North, especially from Italy an Portugal), France (I don't know what the Gilets Jaunes want and nor do they), Hungary, and of course with Brexit.
Now if the EU architects had spent a rainy afternoon asking
"If we allow free movement in a continent of 500 million people, what could possibly go wrong?"
and
"If we establish a common currency among many nations with very different economies, but there is no central budget or common banking system, what could go wrong?"
many problems might have been avoided.
41
@ChrisW
Ah, but the EU architects DIDN'T address those questions, nor a more fundamental one:
"If we impose an amorphous, remote, and purposely undemocratic government upon 28 distinctively different national cultures, what could go wrong?"
I, too, agree that the purpose of founding the EU was noble, but it was ill-considered. Perhaps a federal "United States of Europe" would have fared better.
7
@ChrisW Perhaps the EU would have been better off if a constituent member with a global finance center had entered the Eurozone. Nope.
London represents a lot of the taxable income in the UK, an inordinate amount in fact. We will find out if the petticoats of the old empire can stand Britain as it really is - a teetering mass of disgruntled and unemployed and underemployed people living in a dream long dead.
If the UK had any sense, they'd stay behind their net curtains.
12
London is Europe's New York.
It is the beacon of opportunity (more than 40% foreign-born), the centre of venture capital, the high-tech hub, the financial centre.
Yet the EU says "Ok walk away."
What is really going on here?
In England, the very success and amount of immigration has caused genuine problems and resentments. Rapid cultural change, shortage of housing. To be a loser in England over the last 30 years, all you had to do was rent your home and work in an unskilled job. If you did that, you have not done well because rents have gone up, wages have been stagnant, and your conditions of employment have gone down.
Why not an emergency brake on free movement? England implemented free movement from Eastern Europe before other countries did - if the EU could allow us a temporary brake now, there would be no Brexit.
As a result of its own internal policy failures, much of the EU is rather happy about Brexit. Southern Europe does not have many children: are they really happy that so many of them come North, especially to the UK? If, as economists allege, immigration is so 'good for the economy', is emigration good for the South and East?
If London has been all too successful in attracting people from the rest of Europe, it is simpler to cut it off than to implement policies that might rebalance development.
It is positive that the EU has been moving agencies from London - why were they here in the first place? Move them to Lisbon and Rome.
4
@ChrisW
I agree that such an emergency brake would further shift Brexit sentiment, and also that emigration ( f its native citizens) harms the South and East, But wouldn't that trigger the North and West to also insist on such a brake on movement, keeping non-native migrants in the South, vindicating the insularity of the East, and putting the final nail in the Schengen Treaty?
1
@Jack Lord
You put your finger on the political difficulty! - but the genuine problems remain.
The non-native migrants (from Africa and MENA) seem already to be held in the South. (The South objects to this, hence Italy's current politics and the new rise of the far right in Greece...)
One political problem is that the EU is so politically disunited that, faced with nearly any systemic problem, the only thing on which it can usually agree is to do nothing.
3
It’s funny how you started your comment with praising London for being a beacon of opportunity, driven by the energy brought by immigrants. Then complained about immigration and finally concluded that all these companies in London should just move back to Europe. Perhaps if you read your own comment from the end to the start you will understand the absurdity of Brexit?
13
A long time ago there was a terrible fog over Europe and England. A British newspaper's headline summarized everything one needs to know about the current Brexit dilemma, "Continent Cut Off". As in the US, there are many British citizens who long for the days when times were better and simpler.
Boris Johnson channeled this in a simple comparison - It's all about cake, having it and eating it. An exit from the EU he promised would mean more trade, better deals, and no more foreigners and the tyranny of the government in Brussels.
Economically, whatever happens, the people who believed in the Brexit vision are going to be disappointed. At this point the only question is whether it will be as bad for the 48% who opposed the referendum (could stay in with another referendum)
Politically, the Conservatives have already paid some price, but probably not nearly enough. With Jeremy Corbyn tuning up in the wings, the question is whether the whole country will suffer even more.
Comedy tomorrow, tragedy tonight!
7
Boring? Has she ever watched a session of Congress on C-Span? The Prime Minister's question time has become must viewing in my house; it's more entertaining than anything else on TV.
Of course, as someone with no personal connection to the UK, I can watch it solely for its entertainment value.
22
@Steve Brexit could affect you.
2
PMQs is pure theatre. An illusion. A place for planted questions, lip-service and posturing. It has a minimal effect on government or Parliamentary business.
I visited the gallery a few years ago to watch it. It was noisy and very entertaining, but immutably facile.
2
@Mat
At least the other members of Parliament are present during it so there is a pretense of real debate.
In our Congress, the people speak to an empty chamber.
And your Speaker is a funny guy. I enjoy his put downs of the members when they become too rowdy. I don't think the Speaker of our House could crack a joke if his life depended upon it.
Yes it's a complete mess but no, I am not bored. I am worried but hopeful at the same time that we will in the end leave this farce behind - much diminished but still in the EU. Mrs May started out with a bad hand. But the choice to take this on was hers. She chose to fight for leadership of the Tory Party. She chose to trigger Article 50 urged on by the delusional right wing without any real idea what that meant. And yet she was a Remain supporter. Consequently she doesn't really believe in what she is doing. As many have argued for some time now the only solution is to have another referendum (however unsatisfactory that may be) in the hope that enough Leave voters change their minds having been exposed to the truth through these catastrophic negotiations. Like the Trump base there is a Leave base; divorced from the reality; hopelessly racist; and delusional about Britain's place in the world. If the vote is not reversed the United Kingdom is finished for the economic fall out will result in renewed calls for independence from Scotland (also foolish) and real trouble in Ireland (so very sad and potentially catastrophic). Our childrens' and garndchildrens' futures depend on halting this folly. Let's withdraw the Article 50 notice and have another properly informed vote.
45
Yes, it is boring - but switch off at your peril. Apart from boredom, the other emotion is rage. Sheer, unadulterated, visceral rage as one sees such pompous, ill-informed, backstabbing cretins pretending to be politicians be interviewed and allowed to repeat their nonsense without question or argument. When ambition and manic, seemingly sexual, libertarian ERG desire appears to trump national interest. Trump being a uniquely amusing and simultaneously disturbing word in this context. Meanwhile nasty little men adorned with flags (and now yellow vests) crawl out of the woodwork to intimidate journalists, other protestors and migrants as they bellow in the background. Rage indeed.
Boredom, rage and apoplectic fury are the prevailing emotions in this tangled, self-destructive mess - but like Brexit itself, they are not healthy.
7
It's said that nostalgia is a form of depression; Brexit and Trump are telling us, in no uncertain terms, that Western civilization as a whole is in a state of deep depression.
5
"Brexit is, at its heart, a story about the technical details of trade policy."
No, it really isn't, and the fact that journalists mostly present this myopic view is a big part of the problem. Brexit is, at its heart, about the UK choosing to turn its back on the ideal of an increasingly integrated and independent Europe in which armed conflict is unthinkable. Trade policy, important as it is, was always a means to that end. We are more prosperous within the EU, no doubt: but the purpose of the EU was to ensure that the major European powers would never again go to war with one another.
28
I’m clearing out my university office this month. Yesterday I came upon a file from my first sabbatical, which I spent in Oxford as a Fulbright fellow. Fulbright always has a 2-day convocation for fellows during the year, to which they invite academics and politicians and discuss pressing issues in the host country. In 1988-89, the topic was ‘Europe after 1992’, the inauguration of the Maastricht Treaty, and there were all sorts of crystal ball predictions of what it would mean for trade, the economy, education, health, and the like. Margaret Thatcher was opposed, John Major for it. But one thing that I am certain was never discussed was a potential problem centered on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Back in those days, when Ireland came up in the news, it centered around the IRA and bombings. Flash forward 30 years, and somehow the issue of cross-border tariffs and regulations seems to be more intractable than terrorism ever was. To me, this crystallizes the dysfunctional political and economic situation in which we find ourselves today.
12
@Ockham9
The Irish Prime Minister has stated that Brexit could threaten the Good Friday Agreement. So it's both tariffs AND the fragile nature of the relationship between communities on either side of the border that is at stake.
3
Brexit and Trump both share one important trait: they offer simple solutions to complex problems. Unfortunately the liberal class hasn’t offered a rival narrative and put the blame where it belongs: on the elites. Instead they get bugged down in minutiae. At the end of the day most people would opt for the simple explanation over no explanation at all
10
@Nima: The liberal class has a rival narrative but it is too complicated for sound bites and the trivial analysis you see on the evening news.
As for the elites, they've done such a good job of controlling the narrative that to assail them in the public sphere would be political suicide, unless you're a crazymaker like Trump. Maybe he's doing us a favor by starting an important conversation. If we can just survive his presidency, we might get something better than before after he's gone.
Lost is right. But I dont think its the Brexit types that are lost. Its the rest of us.....Lost in the 1960s......fighting hard to prevent a shift away from that frame of reference.
2
Much as in the US in the UK party politics make rational governance nearly impossible. When enough people refuse to accept that they must live in an often flawed system or endure chaos then little positive action can occur. People need to wake up to the fact that these are the good old days they will yearn for in the future if we continue on the current path.
7
Using serial as the Brexit drama might not be a bad idea. A lot of TV shows started with high drama and ended with a farce after they overstayed their welcome. Remember the U.S. show Happy Days? And "jump the shark" is born! How about bringing back the dead in the new season - interrupted by contract talks - by saying the whole last season was a dream?
Brexit began as a PM Brown's miscalculation. He didn't think people were crazy enough to go for it. Alas, disinformation and Zeitgeist protest turned out to be a potent mix. This is not unlike the U.S. getting Trump. Sometimes though, it is one thing to protest but it is another to cut your nose to spite your face. Disinformation is harder to dislodged. There are still people believing Brexit would guarantee billions of British Pounds, money that never existed! Quite frankly, if there were, Boris Johnson would have been PM now and Nigel Farage would not have tried to quit UKIP twice!
There is still a chance to undo the damage. PM May could hang her hat on Referendum 2.0. It is actually a no-lose strategy for her. Any Brexit - likely to be hard - and she could be ranked just above Chamberlain. If her Referendum 2.0 is successful, she could be hailed as the Thatcher second coming by snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Yes, the whole two years might be a bad dream but the EU leaders would be happy too and she would be vaulted to the top leader of the bunch. Not too bad!
5
@Bos Prime Minister Cameron, a Tory, made the miscalculation.
Prime Minister Brown, a Labor Party member, served as Tony Blair's chancellor, doing all the hard work of balancing the budget and then, briefly, as prime minister, before Cameron won the next election and took over.
I remember Prime Minister Brown for a wonderful speech he made about Britain and the US. I remember Cameron for the moving story of his love for his seriously disabled son. Prime Minister Cameron's decision to hold a referendum on Brexit was the worst decision of his time as a pretty good leader who was a little too trusting that austerity would cure all.
5
@Bos
Not Brown, David Cameron.
It is clear that the same 0.01% International Mafia Robber Baron/Radical religion Good Old Boys' cabal who took over OUR U.S. government and installed The Con Don in OUR white house pulled off a hostile financial coup to "pass" leave.
The Good People of the U.K. must DEMAND a new vote. Now that they understand the ramifications of leaving the E.U. people will come out in droves - as they did in America in November - to vote it down.
Please, Good People, Stop The Robber Barons NOW before they can start WW3 and destroy your - and our - lives again.
15
Reading these articles on Brexit sends me back to rereading parts of Lippman's book, Public Opinion---and the obvious weaknesses of democratic processes which permits the public to vote their opinion---most of which are based on the toxic mix of ignorance, emotion, tribal/group stereotypes---sound familiar. The only real defense against the "mob" is a political class taking on the difficult task of educating the public---which, for decades our establishment types attempted to do---albeit, poorly. But, as our forefathers feared, our political class became lazy---allowing lobbyists to write laws for them and political consulting firms to run their re-election campaigns---both lobbyists and consulting firms were not in the business of educating, they were in the business of indoctrinating. So, here we are, the big issues of the day---climate change, wealth inequality, deficit spending, endless wars abroad, health care---are sidelined for talking points that fuel "opinion" over informed judgment.
24
I think this is a crisis for democracy in general. Ordinary people can't run a complex modern country if they find the work boring. In theory, I could fly a jumbo jetliner. However it would take a lot of work and, frankly, I would find the details tedious. For simple but critical tasks like getting an airplane and 500 passengers from one specific airport to another, I would rather a professional do it. Running a nation, and even more an entire planet, is in my opinion too important to just leave to the professionals. If ordinary people can't somehow become interested and take the time to get informed then they might find that the pilot has taken them to the wrong airport.
19
Or the pilot might have crashed the plane! Is that the fate of the UK if they don’t come to their sensed and hold a second referendum for which, unlike the first one, people would have significant amounts of information to take into account, pro or con.
Would that the USA had the same options for a do-over of the 2016 election right mow, but no such luck!
1
@Grindelwald - but, in the end I think we should always be searching for the best "professionals" available to lead our country. It is certainly true that an educated and involved populace is essential to maintaining a representative democracy. However, I don't think it is as much a matter of ordinary people being bored about running a complex modern country then it is feeling that there are always simple answers to its complex problems - and voting for anyone who claims that our country's issues would be simple to solve if only we would vote for them.
I am constantly amazed that we always search out the best ranked, most highly educated in their field, most experienced "professionals" for any problem we encounter that we do not feel would be wise to handle by ourselves - except when picking our governmental leaders. Then we seem to want to choose from our "gut" and think it would be a great idea to try out someone who is proud to claim that they are the best choice because they have never held a governmental position before. Afterward, when it goes horribly wrong we double down rather than admit to ourselves that our selection was made in haste, ill-conceived, and devoid of any serious research.
4
@Kathy: America voted to tap the brakes in 2018. Our chance for a do over will come in 2020, if we can only survive the next two years without fatal damage.
2
The details may be complex but, at this point, the essential choices available to Brits are simple. Sadly, many of the EU deals which were promised have never actually been on offer. May has made two of the three specific choices available to Brits clear. The third is obvious though she refuses to recognize it for now. Perhaps she has left a little time and politicians may use it to talk on vaguely about negotiating significantly better deals. But that is quite useless. It always has been.
.
Is the problem the story or the storytellers? Now every happening has to be dramatized as news that is sensational. We have realized for months that May couldn't get her deal through Parliament, that some in her own party wanted to get rid of her and that the EU was not going to renegotiate the deal. As these things occurred they were spun into major news. Maybe people are bored because the same stale news is presented as new major events.
6
Recall thatTheresa May's deal with the European Union is only an agreement on how to proceed for negotating the future UK-EU relationship. If this deal cannot easily pass parliament, how will trade, security, travel, erc. agreements ever come to life?
10
The UK is now on the brink of a self-inflicted Brecession driven by small men (Farage, Johnson, Gove) and large tabloids. Personal ambition, spite and increased circulation have carried the day.
19
I am a long time subscriber to the Economist and devour most every section soon after it arrives in the mailbox each Saturday.
But I have skipped the Britain section as it only offers a mind numbing narrative of Brexit and other 'inside baseball' issues. I'd rather read about the state of the insurance industry in Namibia than this drivel.
6
Sounds like my life: dull and terrifying.
9
Every sovereign nation has the rights of self-determination for its future. Brexit is bad policy and will negatively impact generations to come. No amount of negotiation and tweaking can hide the fact its roots are anti-immigrant and racist. Mrs. May's critics have stated: "the world is laughing at us". The truth no one is laughing. Just shaking our heads and thinking what a dumb thing to do.
28
@Jim McGrath And accomplished, don't forget, with the corrupt involvement of the Putin regime. Britain can join the liberal democracies of Europe as a leader of the free world, or fail as an outcast on the world stage--which is what Russia is hoping for.
5
Dumbest thing any country ever undertook save the Scotts failures at colonizing The Isthmus of Panama, Darian. However, history teaches very little to the entirety of UK citizenry. After spending untold fortunes on North America, they squandered that piece of dirt to a bunch of ragamuffin nothing and nobody of note. Obviously, other land masses were likewise lost including Canada, Australia and New Zealand to another dumb idea of their Commonwealth. Essentially, the funny United Kingdom frittered away everything globally save a few "Overseas Territories" like Anguilla. Now, "by Jobe" they talked themselves into modern oblivion by isolationism and xenophobia. It is notable the pound sterling (GBP) is not used in Anguilla where the USD is everywhere.
7
The media industry has found salvation from decline afflicting it for years in a new strategy -- "this is the end of the world."
Brexit, Trump, always something, is so overwhelming that it sucks up all the oxygen, nothing else gets needed attention. The monomania commands dollars for the media. It has saved media.
As for the rest of us, we are victims of the monomania as much as of the things that "threaten the end of the world."
4
Why can't the British understand there is no good deal.
12
@Hazel Because a significant segment of the British public, whipped up to frenzy by political hacks, believe they can recover their former "glories" as Victorian empire-builders / rulers and WWII military heroes standing courageously alone against the evil Hun.
We have a similar dynamic here, with a bamboozled chunk of our electorate hankering after the days when girls were girls and men were men and the White Hats conquered the West with six-shooters.
We sacrifice ourselves to our mythologies.
11
Actually, in the grand scheme of things, Brexit is not nearly as important as the press thinks it is. Brexit will have little impact on the lives of most people in the world and little impact on the economies of most people in the world. While Brexit might cause a terrible recession in the UK and will likely have a terrible impact there, it probably won't be the cause of the next recession for other economies. This reality is what most Leave advocates failed to recognize - the UK isn't that big a deal anymore. They need to stop living in the 19th century and move on.
14
@Glenn Im sure most Americans think like yourself...Britains not important any more etc etc
Unfortunately thats not true Britain is still the fifth largest economy in theworld is at the top of the world in IT medical research and many adnabced technologies as well as having three of the worlds top universities Germany is often considered to be a leader in engineering etc but in fact Britian designs and build nearly all the wings for Airbus planes and supplies many of its high tec components as well as supplying over half of all Airbus planes engines. France German and Japanese car makers have huge investments in UK manufacturing and engineering and design
London still exceeds or rivals New York as the real financial centre of the world even though some financial institutions have made emergency plans on the continent Britain is a far more high tec nation than America and London far more than New York
I wonder when you were last in London?
I can not write this to answer every comment like yours but I hope people read this to get a clearer picture
With 40 % of UK trade going to the EU it would be a disaster for many companies in Europe if there were problems with the seamless link with Britain
And incidentally the UK is the major military power in Europe
Britain was considered finished in 1945....Its dangerous to ever consider the British to be not a big deal....
3
@Glenn
"They need to stop living in the 19th century and move on."
Are you famiiar with the name Jacob Rees-Mogg? If not, have a look.
1
The "Just Leave" coalition doesn't care that their non-plan would condemn the UK to economic chaos and violence.
The "Just Stay" coalition doesn't care that their argument amounts to "because the people who want to leave are racists and dumbbells."
May is attempting to craft a leave plan that navigates between them. It is so much more colorful to listen to the rhetoric of extremists tho. It is almost a replay of the 2016 USA presidential election.
5
Make no mistake, everyone in Britain is loving every moment of this, because it makes the UK “important” once again.
The Danish PM observed a while ago: “There are two types of countries in Europe; small countries and those that do not realize that they are small countries.” She was, in regards to the latter, referring of course to the UK. Brexit puts a once-great country in the headlines every day again. It’s flattering.
Enjoy the spotlight while it shines, me luvs.
8
@Paul H SYour kind of comment is sadly only to be expected re Britain ..I am not going to repeat what I have written a few comments above but I will add here that there is one country has cllapsed in the eyes of the world certainly Europe and that is the USA..and NOT just because of Trump.
It has a totally corrupt health care system,legal system based on the British but distorted totally with its corrupt plea bargaining racket its a nation run by huge corporations...its irrelevant what political party you support neither will help the mass of people...90% of people live in essentially wooden shacks made of half inch chipboard looking nice with a plastic veneer that blow down in a high wind and burn like matchwood...no wonder Americans feel so insecure..Everyone used to envy the friendliness of America ..barbecues every saturday ^everyone invited^ people dropping by for a coffee...in fact it seems you are all completely unfriendly despite living so close.....and what do you do for entwertainment..? every TV station is ten minutes programe and fifteen minutes commercials and all for medicines (forbidden in the EU and how to remortgageyour house to pay medical bills live when you are old and cant work....what a nightmare...
As a British citizen, I am very aware that there are more urgent matters to think about right now than misused words, but Gill wrote "disinterested" when what she meant is "uninterested."
8
@sasha58 Speaking as an ex-pat Brit living in the US, it is a shame to see the UK tearing its self apart over Brexit. It will end like the miners strike in 1984 with whole communities not speaking to each other for decades.
2
Brexit happened, just like Donald Trump, through ignorance and misinformation. There should be a second referendum, as many there are advocating, which hopefully would reverse it. This is one disaster piled onto another.
32
@Reva Cooper Those who lose a referendum will always claim it was due to ignorance and misinformation. As a matter of principle do you really think it is okay to keep holding referenda until your side wins?
3
@Cynical Jack the referendum outcome resulted from voters being given misinformation and outright lies by unscrupulous politicians and media. Moreover, no one predicted the difficulties of separation that have become apparent in the past two years. A second referendum would at the very least offer a better informed citizenry two clear options: May’s tortured compromise or remain in the EU.
I confess to not understanding how people my age who survived WWII could so casually walk away from the union that gave them peace and prosperity. How could they take that hard-won gift for granted, given Europe’s history? I hope a second referendum could be a more honest assessment of their options.
4
@Cynical Jack a second referendum is appropriate in circumstances like this where Brexit has been shown, through the facing of hard truths, to be the fraud that it is. Many people wouldn't have voted for this disaster in the first place, had they not been easily duped by the lies peddled by the leave campaign.
3
However this ends, it should be clear to the Westminster crowd that the international reputation of the United Kingdom has taken a beating.
From the baffling unpreparedness for Brexit to the ongoing squabbling and the stuboorn unwillingness to accept that the whole initiative was entirely of Britain's own making. It shows a lack of self-awareness that is wholly unexpected.
For quite a few years now the United Kingdom has "boxed above its weight", to quote Douglas Hurd, erstwhile Foreign Secretary, but at least he was aware of the fact. No so the current bunch.
A tragic farce, but one with momentous consequences. Somewhere in Moscow someone must be hoppin' an' skippin'...
20
1. Membership in the EU is better than any of the alternatives, period.
2. The Brexit Tories will do anything to achieve Brexit, up to and including carpet bombing Brits economically, something like Bashir al-Assad. They are doing this to conceal, protect and further their offshore interests. They have formed what is truly the most divided, incompetent, venal and mendacious government since Lord North and George III lost America over a tax on tea. They've even encouraged widespread racism and xenophobia to gain their ends. They promote pompous delusions of freedom from geopolitical and economic fact. As a result Britain is a now a world-wide joke.
But that's what I've come to expect from Tories who are nothing if not consistent. Worse is the fact that there is no focussed opposition - no person, no party, no press or other media, no mechanism - to stop the madness. We are going to find out the price of their shabby delusions and we will pay. But they won't.
3. Brexit threatens to paralyse the working economy and thereby choke off public services, including health and education, creating a mass of ignorant, desperate people primed for servitude, exactly like Trump's base, a worthy goal for some apparently. The British media are entirely complicit in this.
What an opportunity for Labour, one might think. Not, apparently, when dotards rule. With the government in tatters the main problem for Britain now is Corbyn. He's useless as May.
4. Another referendum, please.
28
@Angstrom Unit Britain is not a joke but a leading scientific and economic player in the world but what you have written is completely correct Corbyn as I have written above is despicable ...refusing to push for a second referendum because it would upset the mainly Labour voters who voted for it and who would turn against him but there must be a second referendum
5
What should really happen is Britain should have a new binding vote on leaving the E.U. If, as expected, it the new vote is to remain, politicians from all sides should publicly support this result and pledge to respect the decision. There are some politicians would hate doing this, or think of it as political suicide. Too bad. Crashing your country because you want to "respect" a bogus, non-binding plebiscite is a criminal act of
7
@cfarris5 It is not certain at all that a second referendum would, in England, yield a majority for remaining in the EU. Such a majority wis only certain in London, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
Can I join the EU, as just a citizen? The United States is crazy, and the UK wrote itself a valentine for suicide. I can become the newly installed 28th member of the EU. I can evangelize the benefits of the common market and the free movement of all peoples. I will be your happiest member, dear EU. I will be free of the musical comedy/war machine of my misbegotten country. I will have universal health care, a bounty of vacation days, and all the benefits of the Welfare State. Let the UK and the USA retain the traditions of Anglo-Saxon arrogance, while me and my fellow EU members bask in the sun of reason, moderation and prudence.
16
@Richard Steele
No. Unfortunately.
@Richard Steele It is easy. Go to the EU, take ajob there, live and work there for fi e years and apply for citizenship.
4
Perhaps "the most important story in England", but not the world. Brexit pales by comparison to global warming and the climate summit going on in Poland. England will survive Brexit and the EU will, too, but the world won't survive a global increase of 2° Celsius. We must all become as fervent as Swedish teen Greta Thunberg, and demand no more talk--but ACTION!
4
@markku
it's important in ALL of the 4 countries of the UK, not just England.
"Brexit is the most important event facing the country in recent history. That people are bored with it must not be used as a political weapon to push through policies not in their interest."
You could write the same two sentences, substituting "Trumpism" for "Brexit," apply them to the US, and get an equally true statement.
Not all potential disasters come trimmed with flags, marching feet and explosive crises. Nevertheless, attention must be paid.
5
Interesting using Lost as a metaphor. I'm not sure Brexit will have an amorphous ending like the TV series did.
1
Read Sir Ivan Rogers’ speech a few days ago in Liverpool. It’s the best explanation I’ve seen why the Brexit debate is such a mess. We think we have it bad with Trump, but the UK political situation rivals it.
12
How does a rich man become poor? Slowly, slowly then all of the sudden.
Just wait folks. The past few years were foreplay to Britain getting screwed. For at least a generation.
18
The worst aspect of the whole sorry issue is watching senior politicians, who ought to combine to make it all work as their constituents voted, but choose instead to undermine their leader hoping to snatch away her position for themselves -- and Eton is at the root of it all -- Britain at its worst.
11
Here's to an independent Scotland and a united Ireland.
18
@Nosegay of Virtues
Hear! Hear!
@Nosegay of Virtues The Scots are not stupid ...there is no way they will EVER vote for independence ..They want to join the EU but wouldlose their currency and being small and powerless be ruled entirely by Brussels
The Irish Republic would also never vote for a united Ireland as they know they would be taken over very quickly by the British northern Ireland people who are dynamic go getters backed by Britaind wealth and success...Forget it..
As a Brit who has lived for most of his life in Germany, with five children and six grandchildren of dual or even triple nationality, I find the evil and hatred emanating from certain elements of the British Conservative Party quite obnoxious. It smacks very much of the racism which we thought had been eliminated (how naive we were).
The insurmountable barrier to any kind of agreement is and will remain the Irish border, between independent Eire, a staunch member of the EU, and Northern Ireland, which is forced for constitutional reasons to remain part of the United Kingdom. It took many years and a lot of spilt blood to achieve today's Irish peace, and a couple of careless signatures on a new EU treaty could throw the nation back to its explosive past.
Apart from the evident stupidity of pretending that the UK is somehow not a part of Europe, the Irish question alone would suffice to justify remaining in the EU. Otherwise the country will not remain but just become a nostalgia-filled remnant.
41
@Bill George, I don't know that much about Northern Ireland but I do understand that there are a lot of people in Northern Ireland who don't want to be absorbed by Ireland. These are people too, and it is inhumane to simply ignore their wishes. Look at the breakup of Yugoslavia after the fall of the Soviet Union. We can't allow another Sarajevo to happen.
If Shakespeare were alive today he would no doubt find some suitable prose to describe Brexit. Like Romeo and Juliette, the separation of Britain from the EU will probably leave both parties poisoned or impaled.
5
@Damian McColl
If American tv ever shows 'Upstart Crow', you should watch it.
Perhaps the Times will provide us with an update of key issues preventing the completion of a UK exit from the EU ? While the politics are entertaining, the economic issues are important too I'd imagine.
3
The vote to leave was predicated upon large net benefits promised by a group of exceedingly sleazy politicians (take a look at Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage's backgrounds and the promises that they made about the net benefits once the UK no longer needed to pay to the EC. Hint, they left out the amounts that the UK was getting FROM the EC). The UK is now in a position where the potential costs of leaving could be catastrophic (according to the the Bank of England) while nobody seems to be able to discern any major benefits. It is obvious that the electorate was bounced into voting leave. If you asked them: would you prefer the certainly that things won't get any worse (i.e. Remain) versus a bet at unknown odds that things might get better (at some unknown time in the future) but might get much worse I suspect a large majority would vote Remain. The EC has said that the UK could decide to Remain with no penalties it would be foolish not to
8
The Brits have the legal right to destroy their country, so let them have a go at it. Elections have consequences. Now that the US is trying to destroy itself, let them have a go at, too. In both cases it is low-information people thinking they can turn back the clock. Lets turn it way back and try the Dark Ages again.
10
The Brexit story needs a Mueller.
This is obviously a Russian fingerprint on much of what happened behind the scenes. It is painful to see how easy it is for foreign powers to subvert democratic governments, all they have to do is find the most greedy, the most desirous of press attention, and get them to champion the pain of the hateful.
Hugh Massengill, Eugene Oregon
23
This scenario you outline explains why it's so hard to predict the future from knowledge of what's going on now. The only model we can employ about the future presumes the situation (whatever situation you're trying to understand) proceeding forward without (unpredictable?) human interventions.
But the truth is, people are always striving to alter the path, avoid a crash, and survive, and as the "inevitable" approaches people work even harder to avoid it. It's hard to predict how or if they will be successful. Such complex decision problems are not like ballistic missiles in free-fall, they keep making adjustments.
There are a Zeno's Paradox worth of actions that can be taken and in the case of Brexit, Theresa May is employing them all.
2
I think it’s fair to say Ireland’s economy is heading for the rocks. What proportion of their trade is with the UK? I can’t see that they’ve assisted these negotiations at all. That intransigence will ironically lead to a hard border (unlikely to be policed by the UK but by Ireland as a proxy of the EU). I suspect an unhealthy element of schadenfreude in the Irish psyche
3
@Stephen: Your comment is ill-judged, and based on faulty information and on a total absence of historical knowledge. Ireland is part of the EU, and as such has been deeply involved in negotiations, Northern Ireland is also in the EU--as part of the UK. The people of NI voted Remain. The people of Ireland had no say in the matter. I grew up on the border, and I can assure you, the UK will be heavily involved in customs and police oversight of traffic across their newly strengthened border.
12
@Des Johnson Security is another major issue.
@Stephen
Your country made a sovereign democratic decision, if one that was hugely ill informed, and based on the back of decades of anti-EU propaganda from a rancid media. And that decision is clearly your own, and is respected as such. By the way it would be nice if you actually showed the maturity and owned it.
The plain fact is that Ireland, along with the rest of the EU27, have simply pointed out the cold hard the reality of leaving. One of which is the impact upon Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement. And I am sure, or at the least I would hope, you are aware that Northern Ireland voting overwhelming to remain in the EU.
Now I appreciate you may not like such cold hard realities, and they may clash with that fabled Brexit desire to stride into 'sunny uplands'. Yet being an adult requires taking responsibility for your own actions, and not acting like a impetuous child flailing about blaming everyone else for the consequences.
5
End the indecision: have Parliament re-vote quickly (no referendum), with choice between Hard Brexit vs No Brexit, and with chief Tory advocate of the winning side to succeed May as PM immediately.
3
No need to hyperventilate and hype the "importance" of brexit or Britain. Yes, it's consequential to Britain and, to a lesser extent, to Europe. But Britain has been on a steady downhill course for years and is no longer of much economic consequence as anglophiles make it out to be.
6
One thing you have to admit is that Theresa May has a stiff upper lip in the face of almost universal detestation. And all for implementation of Brexit, which she did not originally favor.
10
I see some reader comments suggesting the problem is the "free movement of people". The idea of people from Poland or Latvia moving to Britain, taking British jobs, driving up rents in Britain ... while the people of British origin suffer.
It seems that maybe these people would like a deal where the borders would be open for trade, but not the "free movement of people".
Maybe Britain could graciously agree to stay in the EU, but only on the condition that everyone agrees that changes need to made. Seriously limit the "free movement of people" thing.
And 30 years from now, people will see that the result of these "changes" will be British companies selling products all over the EU ... that they manufacture in Poland and Latvia. :-)
5
@David Martin
Modification of the rules is the sensible solution. The UK tried for that and were rejected.
The EU initially was Western Europe, when impoverished Eastern Europe joined it, the whole scheme was set for collapse. The UK leads in its wish to disassociate, but others will follow unless the rules are changed.
2
@M Clement Hall Ouf, there were people in Western Germany that saw the unification with Eastern Germany as being a lousy deal. It took time. But now Germany is the strongest economy in the EU.
These things take time. But you can’t back out of these deals just because people arrive that are willing to work for wages that the more fortunate folks balk at.
5
@David Martin Today's world is changing rapidly, its more logical to say that Nationalism is not in everyone's favor wherever they may live.
3
The problem as I see it is that the members of the Conservative party that would have voted against the deal are the same ones who are under the illusion there could be a practically consequence free Brexit. There is no such thing.
The EU have to provide the UK with some less than palatable terms to instill fear in any other member nation that feels like doing the same thing. Theresa May is between a rock and a hard place.
8
@Diane agreed. Those brexiteers are deluded into thinking that Britain is so "indispensable" that the E.U. would give the a golden parachute at the expense of the rest of Europe. Truly an ignorant, self-deluded belief.
"“It’s an endless stream of anticlimax,” a reporter told me. “Almost every day promises to be a grand, important day in our country’s history, but most of them come to nothing.” The public, meanwhile, grows increasingly bored and disinterested in us, ever more ready to turn the page or change the channel."
This is what happens when voters vote on pure emotion instead of facts. When voters don't take the time to research the issues. When politicians, driven by partisan agendas, don't give voters all the facts.
The Brexit vote in 2016 is a great example of the dog catching the sports car he's been chasing for decades. Now that he has it, he doesn't know what to do with it.
Some problems appear insolvable because they are--it's one thing to vote your anger and your passion, and quite another to upend an entire economic system with all the disastrous consequences that entails.
My question is, if May comes back again and a vote is taken and it doesn't pass, what then?
A hard Brexit would be wrenching for the citizens who many say weren't told the full story on how this break would affect their lives.
25
@ChristineMcM That's why they should cowboy up and reverse the decision. It is a terrible idea to pull out of brexit, and the original vote was non-binding. Politicians have admit that Brexit is a dumb idea and they won't support it. If some of them get voted out of office, so be it.
2
What much of the world didn’t notice over the past 40 years was that the E.U. had become an entity with both characteristic of a national state while also being a loose confederation of 27 independent nations.
A friend of mine working in the E.U. judicial system specialized in transnational adoptions. To build that kind of bureaucracy now being torn apart for one country like Britain begs the question about how smooth a transition can be when all the complications are factored. No wonder it becomes tedious and boring but still so important.
4
The slow-motion dissolution of a civilization, offered up in real-time, a car heading into a brick wall at break-neck speed, which we all witness, including those in the car, over a period of years.
We know there will be bloodshed, and a horrible mess, but the car cannot be stopped, and the wall cannot be moved.
All this because of a massive mistake, that in retrospect was so avoidable.
And not so very different from the massive accident we Americans are enduring. Our car has already hit the wall, and we are counting the dead and wounded, doing triage, trying to assess the damage as the smoke and stench surround us all.
36
@Space needle I like your "car heading into a brick wall" analogy. Brexit seems to be exactly that example, except I would add that as the car is racing towards the wall, the occupants are arguing about which radio station they should be listening to.
1
The most distressing thing about Brexit is that it has good people and awful people on both sides. Yet to me at least the principle of sovereignty should be something exciting. For God's sake, people used to die for independence. Now they would trade it for less paperwork. And I'm not sure I can blame them.
1
One more gasp of post-imperial nostalgia !
Britain is European, plain and simple. No amount of self-inflicted injury and/or delusion can change that basic fact.
9
@D
I believe a majority of Brits, even many who voted Remain, would disagree.
1
@D
"D" cannot have been to the UK. It has always prided itself on the reverse of what he says -- Britain was never European, and by its very nature never can be made European.
@Jack Lord It doesn't make a difference that they would disagree. The facts on the ground say otherwise. Pretending it isn't do is a costly and dangerous self-indulgence.
5
It is like watching the moth as it dances around the flame. You keep shooing it away, but it continues to move to the flame. The very thing that all the Brits agreed was the very worst possible outcome, a 'no deal Brexit', is that flame, and it is as if they are incapable of avoiding it. It is inexorably drawing them there because they cannot agree to see anything else. It boggles the mind, but then, I live in Trump-land, and we're dealing with our own form of entropy.
30
I think there is a enormous propaganda to revoke the BREXIT. There is this expectation that British people will go on strike asking for end the BREXIT and stay in the EU, but as time passes, people have not taken the streets asking the reversal of BREXIT, so the answer is that they still want their BREXIT.
As a non-European person, I get surprised to see how come British people still didn't learn anything about the terrible sides effects of nationalism, like the one brought by the WW II.
Those who don't know history are deemed to repeat it. Politicians and the press have driven people to believe that immigrants, a minority and most vulnerable part of the population, are the reason for their lack of wealth to live a decent life. They don't see the greediness of a global economic system, where 1% holds 50% of the world's wealth, is the reason why their lives are so miserable.
19
@Roberta
"where 1% holds 50% of the world's wealth, is the reason why their lives are so miserable. "
This. Exactly. Although I thought was more than 50%.
1
@Roberta 700,000 people recently marched through London against Brexit, second-largest ever.
7
it seems like the Brits are cutting off their nose to spite their face with this Brexit. And they gave the thankless job to Theresa May. The darn parliament acts like it was all her idea. It seems rather naive to think they’d get a good deal for walking out early from the EU.
6
What I think is so fascinating about this drama is that not one single British politician, Brexiteer or Remainer, seems to be willing or capable of negotiating their differences. They don't move from their trenches. You don't speak with a Brexiteer, let alone negotiate with one. You shout your opinion in his ear. It has been like this for two years now. Even politicians without an opinion about Brexit take part in the shouting. Jeremy Corbyn never stopped. Insult after insult. Is compromising considered a weakness in British politics?
6
@Paul. As someone who has traveled in Britain extensively over 40 years, my impression is many from the South to the Midlands and beyond believe they are Churchill reincarnated and remember only "never give up".
1
@Paul
It is impossible to debate with an idiot. He will drag you down to his level and win through experience. Brexiters are gullible fools except for those who will profit from it. Not the poor workers. The rich and powerful, like Jacob Rees Mogg, who has moved his hedge fund assets out of the UK, ready to move them back when the pound Sterling REALLY tanks. And those who wish to reduce workers' rights granted by the EU. It's a waking nightmare.
I fight Brexit boredom by thinking of all the people in Ireland who do not want to go back to having soldiers at armed border crossings, of all those who have learned, over the past twenty-odd years, to favor freedom of movement and trade over what had seemed an endless and intractable state of hatred, sectarian violence, and economic stagnation. How profoundly ironic that little Ireland should have become the irreducible "problem" for British, and indeed European life and politics. Ireland has become the Celtic, or better yet Orwellian elephant, but not in the way anyone ever expected it to be. Isn't it telling that, at least to all outward appearances, the British people once again thought that they could essentially take Ireland for granted, or deal with Irish matters sometime in the hazy future? To my knowledge, the backstop was not part of the debate, just prior to the Brexit vote. It sure is now!
17
@Michael McDonald: Fair points. But the border wasn't always manned by armed soldiers. I was born inches from the border, which in our town was marked by a little stream. We paddled in it, caught small trout there, and ran back and forward over its bridges almost daily, weather permitting,
4
@Michael McDonald
Almost correct, just not ALL the British people. The Irish aspect of brexit simply did not enter the thought processes of the advocators of or voters for leaving. Arrogant and uninformed. They genuinely are, which is why you cannot argue with them. It's impossible. I've tried. Rule Britannia, Dunkirk spirit, the Blitz, the cheating, cowardly French, Muslims, Sharia law, etc etc are some of the planks in their 'argument'. Oh, and many want us to immitate Trump. (not in a humorous way) I despair.
Sorry, but Brexit is not just "a story about the technical details of trade policy." More than 3 million EU citizens who live and work in the UK have had their political rights stripped in a referendum in which they had no vote. And after more than two years, all they have is vague promises that they will be "allowed" to stay, from a Prime Minister whose record at the Home Office does not provide much comfort or suggest much sympathy.
Add to that the million or so Britons living in the EU whose residency rights are being held hostage by Mrs May's immigration red lines, the scientists and other employers whose ability to recruit skilled and talented workers from Europe is in limbo, and the millions of British young people whose chances to work freely in Europe are being sacrificed by a xenophobic government, and you end up with a lot of people for whom Brexit is a real threat that is far from boring!
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@_
EU citizens are not British citizens; they have no more "political right" to vote on the UK's internal matters than French citizens do to vote in a German election.
An overwhelming majority of British young people do not choose to work and study in other EU countries; however, like skilled and talented workers, they would be able to apply to work or study in the EU (as would EU citizens to the UK), at the discretion of the respective polities post-Brexit, much as I, a US citizen might.
The UK government isn't xenophobic, nor are most of even Brexit voters; there are many reasons why a majority voted Leave.
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@Jack Lord
The Brits living in the EU had no vote either. They ARE British citizens who were deprived of a vote in something that would affect them profoundly. Even at this late stage they do not know what is going to happen to them after whatever form of brexit takes place. Why did YOU vote 'leave'?
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@ Jack Lord
European citizens residing for more then 3 months in a another european country have the right to vote at local municipal and european élection.
2
Brexit is tied with the Trump Administration as the worst idea of the Twenty First Century. They will forever be linked in history. That is once all of their unintended consequences are fully known, which will probably take until the Twenty Second Century.
9
Brexit’s chickens come home (with added tariffs) to roost. Every promise made about Brexit was a lie. Easy? Nope. Save Britain money? Nope. UK controls the narrative? Nope. No deal better than a bad deal? Nope, nope, and nope. I would say the only hope is to rescind the deal, acknowledge the lies, and admit the huge mistake made. But this is about politics and who is in charge. So it’s more likely that on March 1st, the UK will trip headlong into a nightmare of its own making.
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@RodA
Agreed but it happens at 23.00, March 29, British time. They wanted to avoid their 'big day' being Aprill Fool's day, April 1st.
3
When I read the title of this piece, I thought to myself 'Yes! Finally, people agree on the fact that absolutely nobody else in the world cares about whether or not the UK leaves the EU.' I was disappointed to learn that this was not the thrust of the article.
@DrSueS
Outside of the EU, there will not be much interest. However you are displaying the sort of attitude that leads to things like brexit, Trump, Putin, Erdogan, et al. Get your head out of the sand and pay attention to what is happening in the world. Actually I've just realised you will be in favour of all these things.
4
Whenever I hear current hardline “man-in -the-street” Brexit supporters interviewed on the BBC, their ignorance about the complexities (not to mention the folly) involved in the UK extracting itself from its 50 year relationship with the EU is just as breathtaking as that Trump of supporters who keep talking about how Trump is making America great again. The odious and devious Brexiteers like Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg may not be wearing “M(B)GA” baseball caps, but they are selling the same sort of demonstrable lies to the British people for their own political gain.
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@Susan: Precisely. And one thing the UK and USA nostalgia-peddlers never define is the period when the country was ‘great’. Because for most of their aggrieved supporters, life was not so good then either.
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When Brexit was announced, the first thing I saw was the Chancellor of the Exchequer in a building with a hideous yellow paint job. He was standing behind a small gate door attached to an actual door , for some reason about 20 feet from the camera, and saying everything was fine. I have rarely, if ever, seen a less professional presentation of anything, including used car sales.
Not much has changed. Bizarre, mindless, totally implausible, unsupported statements continue to fester. Everyone who was sponsoring Brexit has resigned, and left it to a person they've been trying to undermine since day one.
Brexit is an idiotic, totally unnecessary idea, with no forward planning, no trade deals in place, and the strange view that the EU, which takes 51% of UK exports, will continue business as usual, buying UK products and services after Brexit. This brilliance also includes the strange idea that the UK should leave one economic union, the EU, and join another, the Trans Pacific Partnership.
Does this look, sound, or even suggest, that Brexit is being conducted by real people? So much actual confidence is being shown in Brexit that people are actually looking at emergency food, medication, etc. Emigration, not immigration, will be the number to watch.
One British tradition remains; If the worst case predictions come true, someone will find a way of making them worse. After a century of decline, Brexit will be the final nail in an inglorious end to Britain.
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We are reaching the end game. Don't write May off. She'll offer Parliament her deal or cancellation of Article 50 to remain in Europe. She'll offer Labour a General Election in return for their support.
By the way,we British are bored by the Democrats futile attempts to get Trump.
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It is quite true that the choice now is between May's Brexit deal and Remain. But now that the real choice has become clear, if the Prime Minister makes the offers you suggest to Parliament without consulting the people in another referendum, it will be a sad day for Britain.
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@Gary Hyams Robert Mueller is a Republican. He was installed by a Republican Attorney General. He is working with the FBI, which is filled with Republicans, including the head of the FBI, Christopher Wray (and, in fact, there has never been a Democrat who has headed the FBI). Do keep up.
Can somebody please make this stop? I mean, I know to the U.K. this is a big deal but the rest of the world can't keep hearing about it all the time. I don't mean to be rude.
@Yesme1993
Yet, you ARE being rude by suggesting other's should shut up because you aren't interested. I'd call that rude, mate.
I'm too distracted by our self-destruction to pay appropriate enough attention to theirs. Sorry, my British friends, but we're both embroiled in our own ongoing slow-motion self-inflicted shotgun shell to the frontal lobe.
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@M.A.A
True and reciprocated. Neither of us can help the other. But in general terms it should convince you to be politically aware.
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The British public may well have become uninterested in the daily ebb and flow of Brexit events, but they are not "disinterested"!
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@Randonneur
Common error. An umpire is disinterested but not uninterested in a game.
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This first paragraph is a perfect description. All that’s missing is the addition of political myopia and the absurdity of characters like Mr Rees-Morgan and the entirety of Northern Ireland’s DUP.
Lost indeed.
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Theresa May repeats that Brexit is 'the will of the British people' -- as if 100% of us voted for this imbecilic, yes-no, up-down act of national self-harm.
And I will repeat: only 37% of the restricted voters (no 16- and 17-year-olds, as in the Scottish referendum; no British expats who had lived abroad for more than a certain number of years; no EU citizens like myself who live and pay taxes here) determined this 51.9% to 48.1% outcome, which was NOT meant to be binding, no matter what the Tories crow.
A second referendum based on current facts, following 2-1/2 years of discussion and negotiations, is the only way to move this boring story forward.
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The jobs got off-shored, the people became angry, and a few Olde Empire throwbacks used the opportunity to posture in a big way and used funds from - where exactly - to push an idea that will fatally hole this country for a generation, and weaken the EU.
Who could possibly benefit? The Russians, who, for the price of an office full of dweebs turned the entire West on its head. Using the bumptious vanity of Johnson and the bar-room idiocy of Nigel Farage they have shaken the bulwark of the EU against a newly militarized Kremlin.
The exact same thing was done in the US, using the exact same people, the same ideas, the same dweebs, the same targeted demographics, and everything else. Monumental vanity and hubris on the part of now greatly weakened democracies.
Good job, boys.
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Bring back Monty Python's Flying Circus. I'm sure they can fix it. I mean, it can't get much worse than it is right now, so they may as well give it a go.
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@Michael Kennedy
That's not an argument...
Time to coin a new word then to get people’s interest back, instead of Brexit call it BrEakUp or Breu.
2
The Brits will be punished for defying the bankers. Brussels is not happy. The most important thing for democracy is that the voters be respected, and the liberal cheerleading for the bureaucrats in Brussels has been an abomination.
@John
Amazing how some Americans use the word 'liberal' as an insult. I thought the US was the land of the 'free' or 'liberated'.
Democracy did not stop in June 2016. If the will of the people was respected then, it should be again.
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@John
But the bankers are in LONDON.
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A divided political party with utterly spoiled members has dragged not only its country but the entire EU into a political mess. The economic impact not to be known yet. They can only be losers.
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As someone who grew up in a former British colony that was fully exploited and demoralized by 200 years of their rule, it’s a little amusing to watch the British people and government go through a self imposed exercise in making themselves a so called “vassal state” in Europe just to justify their fear of foreigners! Oh, the historical irony here is rich!! The hollowness at the heart of the Brexit argument becomes more obvious to the world with each passing week.
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Allowing a second referendum would just guarantee that Brexit wouldn't ever happen. Because not enough people would ever agree on the plan. What is happening in Great Britain should be a lesson to those nations on deck to join the European Union. They should know that once they're in there's no getting out. It's easier to leave the Mafia.
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I love this column---very droll! The daily torrent of words on Brexit news has become impossible to understand. And most unenjoyable. The MPs, commentators, and EU officials actually love piling on the verbiage.
I was very interested, but now am too lazy to look up stuff on the web to clarify the shifts, and who benefits or loses.
I did want to see if May will stay or leave, but now.... ho hum.
But the same thing is happening with the Mueller Investigation. And the daily details of all the Trump pals who are indicted.
So which is going on longer---Mueller, or Brexit? I've lost track. "A mixture of dull and terrifying?"
Is there a Cliff Notes version. Or a child's picture book?
@Meredith
I think you put your finger on a very real difficulty in public discussion - there does need to be a "Cliff Notes".
DIsconnected, random opinion articles in the newspapers - and these below-the-line comments - are a terrible way to have a public debate. In the 21st century, don't we need better?
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@Meredith
The brexit saga will end before the Trump one.
But only just.
@Meredith It's more like a Stephen King horror story, except it's loaded with really sick humor.
1
Just what Vladimir Putin planned.
He's winning everywhere.
But honorable mention must go to Angela Merkel. Her decision to permit over 1 million largely economic migrants into German (and therefore the E.U.) tilted to vote in Brexit's favor. She is the second most destructive German chancellor of the past century, so far. We'll see if she actually ends up getting first place when the full fallout from that wretched decision is finally realized (Brexit, Trump and counting!).
1
@Will. So it is Putin and Merkel. I did not know that our chancellor wields that kind of power. Cameron's defense henceforth shall be "Merkel made me do it", and demagogues like Johnson can blame the Germans once more. The inane Murdoch propaganda ("350 Million Pounds every week to Brussels instead of the NHS") had no impact - nope, it was the devious Merkel.
Historians, somewhere down the road, will have to decide who was the worst British PM in recent decades: Chamberlain or Cameron? My money would be on Cameron.
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@Will.
There was a genuine refugee element to this. They were NOT 'largely economic migrants'.
The vast number of folk who have emigrated to the US over the centuries, however, definitely are.
The UK has always been the backbone and champion of Europe whether inside or outside of the EU.
It seems to me that so few people learn so little from history. The shenanigans of the EU are counter-productive and only serve to stiffen the resolve of the British populace.
The EU is failing and whilst it would have been preferable for the UK to stay in the EU's and help to force a Reformation, Germany and France (strange bedfellows) determined to try and take advantage of the UK leaving the EU.
All this talk of the U.K.'s supposed desire to relive the days of Empire is utter baloney – we simply wish to be free from the unelected governance of Europe and able to control our borders, trade and rule of law.
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@Ian Wilkinson
Which part of the EU is unelected?
Certain people who have been active in the UK government are unelected. Who 'elected' Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as Foreign Minister, for example? It wasn't a peoples' vote.
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@Ian Wilkinson I accidentally clicked on 'Recommend', which I won't willingly do at gunpoint. Meanwhile, you want to live in the 18th Century, which has been off the menu for two centuries.
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"The dial fluctuates crazily, but by the end of the day it is often in the same place it was at the start. "
I suspect that the writer is relying on 24/7 cable news, which has shown itself incapable of analyzing what is actually happening. Instead, cable news has adopted a system in which competing teams of reporters repeat statements that others have said ... sometimes many days before.
It would be called "group-think" if there were actually any thinking involved.
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The changes to customs processing are going to be profound and I think will effect travelers outside the UK. With vastly increased need for customs agents the UK will be forced to redeploy agents away from airports, resulting in decreased customs and immigration processing rate. Without a corresponding decrease in arriving passengers there will be a exponential increase in passenger wait time. Even a simple connection at Heathrow for a European destination has nightmarish potential. Worst case the UK will be forced to delay flight departers to the UK backing up flights in foreign countries.
1
As Britain teeters on the brink of a brave (and idiotic) leap into the past, it is striking how difficult it is for a nation to come to grips with having a international influence in proportion to its size and not as a result of its colonial history. Meanwhile over here, the lunacy contagion has jumped the Atlantic Ocean and we rush like lemmings over our own cliffs of misguided superiority, led by someone who has its most advanced set of symptoms.
34
The European Union is still work in progress imagine a union of all countries in Africa or South America. One cannot get there over night. The fundamental problems of unemployment, income inequality and minorities will not be solved by a backward national minded thinking. We need forward thinking.Britain will realize that after they left the EU fundamental challenges within their country are still there and far from being solved but it is so easy to blame others and make populist promises.
19
The great Christmas gift from Brexit to British citizens is that now they have a realistic understanding of what a breakup with the European Union could bring, and it’s not pretty.
6
Opinions are diverse, but I would say the project is working. Some areas more than others, but France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany... certainly. Probably Spain and Portugal too. Also Finland.
If the majority of Brits want to leave, then fine, go. Italy too, if they want to continue playing games.
Even if the majority of Brits, today, don’t want to leave the EU, but the nation feels obligated to do so because they had a referendum once already, fine, that’s their business.
8
It seems to me this is stalled because the UK wants its cake and eat it too. When this whole thing started it was obvious that there must be a customs/immigration border between Ireland and N Island. The vote was to be part of the EU and have open boarders or not, the not won and like it or not they are separate countries.
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@Thomas Renner
Yes - but it is a little more complicated.
One solution is to have customs inspections at a land border between Northern and Southern Ireland. But the UK and Ireland made an agreement long ago (the Good Friday agreement) that this would not happen.
Another solution would be to have Northern Ireland as a special area of the UK, with the customs border in the Irish Sea that is between the two. This is implacably opposed by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), on whose support Theresa May relies upon in parliament, because the last election was unusually tight.
The DUP are hyper-sensitive to any hint of a separation from the UK - the whole reason for their existence is that they do not want to be part of Ireland. They are not reasonable people, and this is their moment, and unfortunately they are making the most of it.
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@ChrisW
Yet another solution would be for the British Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to execute a provision of the Good Friday Agreement and call for a vote in NI regarding the formation of a united Ireland outside the UK. Northern Ireland as a whole voted Remain, most of its counties voted Remain, and recent polls indicate a preference for a unified Irish Republic.
Whatever happens with Brexit, this may come to pass in any case.
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@Jack Lord
Indeed! This might be popular in England too....but these things can take time. It does not solve the current hiccup of the DUP holding the balance of power, unfortunately.
3
Our current political morass shows how personalities do matter. We have two leaders of parties who are manifestly unfit for their roles, whose inadequaces have brought us to this impasse. It is not at all clear how we will find our way out but the one good thing is that this has galvanised opinion against Brexit, and the dark shadows that lurk behind Brexit. How that positive energy can find its way through to stop Brexit and to begin to send those shadows back to the underworld, well I don't know but can only pray and write that it will happen.
And of course Brexit is a synonym for Trump.
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The “dark shadows behind Brexit” have so far escaped reporters’ close scrutiny. These shadows are the Oligarchs really running the British government who don’t want their power diluted by the EU.
5
It´s going around in circles.
The plot is as simple as it could be. The range of viable solutions is limited - in oppposite of all kinds of non viable solutions. It´s clear what UK can get from EU.
The only thing to write about is the steady stream of many non-viable, usually mutually exclusive proposals of solutions simultanously advocated in UK by different factions most of them apparently never acceptable for EU for 2 years chewed all over for 2 years also. No other news for 2 years also.
Groundhog days are here again.
The only difference is: According to game theory the car is running towards the cliff. Now it´s pretty close. A specific strategy some macros were rewarded for by Nobel awards..
7
Here is only one just solution to this impasse and that is to take the decision back to voters ie a second referendum. 2 years ago we were asked to vote on whether to go ahead with an operation with few details of the procedure or the risks available .
Now we know something about both. As a patient you are entitled to informed consent before surgery, why should we expect less as voters faced with a hugely important issue?
As for this being ‘a betrayal of democracy’ - democracy didnt come to a halt two years ago. A second referendum would show democracy is still alive and well. How can democracy possibly be undermined by listening to the voters?
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@Jacky Davis It's only ever people who voted Remain who demand a second referendum, claiming that previously the voters 'didn't know the facts'. I am sure that those who want this further referendum have no intention of changing their Remain votes. The whole movement is depressing and naive. Before the vote lots of people were walking around with their heads in their hands saying "why won't anyone tell me the facts so I can make up my mind?" These people had abdicated their resposibilities as adults to make judgements on the best available information and you want to let them off. The fact is, it will never be clear what is going to happen, it's no more clear now, and polls show Leave voters haven't changed their minds. There is no 'new information', everything that has come up was known about before. English and Welsh Brexiters did not care about N. Ireland or they took the view that 'a solution will turn up' - they still take that view! Notice nobody ever speaks of Gibraltar which has a similar issue but less clout than Ireland. I'm a Remainer and unfortunately the only thing I can see that will put this issue to bed forever is for us to Brexit and for it to be awful and traumatising. N I should stay in the Customs Union, they voted to Remain. After all, the province only exists because they voted to remain in the UK when the rest of Ireland did not! Funny how the old "oh, but we all voted to leave as a country" did not apply then, when the UK decided to slice up Ireland...
6
@Certified Diplodocuse Completely disagree - there is plenty of new information now. For instance who told us w’ed have to stockpile food and medicines and have no access to medical isotopes. The effects on the NHS alone are enough to make people reconsider. And they dont include an extra £350 million a week either.
Why are you afraid of democracy? Why is it ‘naive’ to ask people to vote now we have the terms and conditions before us. Your argument that we should opt for something that you already know will be ‘awful and traumatising’ is like telling someone poised to jump off the cliff that they might as well jump and get it over with. We still have time to step back. If a second vote based on informed consent is still for leave then we’ll just have to throw our hands up and accept that our fellow citizens want the pain and poverty that comes with Brexit.
13
@Certified Diplodocus
One could have a two-part second referendum - first ask whether people want a second round to vote on Brexit. If the majority vote YES, then ask again whether people want to leave or remain in the EU.
4
As a person that travels over the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, Brexit means a lot to me. The UK has decided that they don't want the same relationship with the EU but they can't agree on what should replace it. Things could have been different if a unity government had been put together to negotiate internly first and then with the EU. Instead, it has been politics as usual on both sides. With the Tories with people like Ian Duncan Smith and Boris Johnson playing politics by advocating a fictional Leave scenario that can never happen and a Labor party that works on their own fictional story where they take over a vastly improve May's exit deal with the EU. UK really needs to get serious. Brexit is really too important.
42
@Pat
It wasn't the UK that voted for Brexit but England and Wales. Every one of the 32 voting areas in Scotland voted to remain in the EU with total percentage voting to remain 62%. N. Ireland voted 55% to remain. Unfortunately, 53% of the English votes and 52% of the Welsh votes were for Brexit and they won by dint of the very large population of England.
34
@Maggie Sinclair
But we did not vote as England, Wales, Scotland and NI - we voted as individuals, just as we do in every election (except independence refendums).
This interpretation is what the nationalist parties would have us believe and their aim is, of course, fragmentation of the UK. Which would be another wild leap in the dark, based on unfounded promises and un-knowable outcomes.
@Pat, to add to points below and yours, urban England largely voted remain as well (see London, Liverpool, etc.). The divisions within the UK are among the four countries but also urban vs. rural.
A cross-party grouping to negotiate would have been a good approach, but there is division within their parties as well, and the 2 main parties have divisive leadership.
Where is a British leader who can lead?
5
A new referendum is the only solution. The British people have a right to vote on the actual plan. Otherwise the MPs will regret that they failed to let their constituents weigh in.
78
Mysteriously, Brtain has a two-week holiday at Christmas, one which Parliament calls a "recess": how will this wretched "Brexit" fare during that time? I suspect that talk behind the scenes will lead to its end. Meanwhile, it has provided one job: near Hove, in Brighton there appeared yesterday at a beside a protest 'bus a fellow who plies a trade as a Boris Johnson lookalike.
8
This scenario began 40 years ago when the UK accepted Thatcher's plan of "every man for himself", earning the country the moniker of "The 51st State". The US and the UK headed down this path together and each got what they asked for, that is, a significant slice of the public whose lives are so desperate, they would have voted for anything to change it. And that's just what they did. The US got Trump, the UK, Brexit.
273
Superb observation, SpyvsSpy.
Brexistan blames Europe for its white spite.
Trumpistan blames Mexicans, Muslims, Asians for its white spite.
Neither of those two groups wants to blame themselves for failing to evolve, educate and elucidate themselves.
218
@SpyvsSpy -- We have an additional problem here in the US. These self-styled populists have so-long accepted the free-market fundamentalism of Reagan/Thatcher/etc, that they insist any solution to their problems be found within that paradigm. But it is the so-called free market that is removing their position in the world.
Their nationalism permits governmental economic interference at the country's borders -- somehow that doesn't count -- thus, they accept immigration restrictions and tariffs. But those won't solve their problems, so we can expect them to become more and more frenetic. I fear for our future.
38
@Chas Simmons Equating Brexit and the political divide in the USA is a totally erroneous analogy. The issue of the EU and of the UK is one of the desire of the EU to become more a federal union and the alternate desire of the UK to remain a nation state. If an analogy is desired in terms of our own situation, it would be that a union exists between of all North American countries and Americans object to the "Supreme Court of North America" having judicial supremacy and a "North American Legislature" formulating the laws operative in the USA. Americans, either of the right or the left, wouldn't stand for it. And neither do the British. This federal union is not the same as the Common Market the British joined in the 70's, but is a structure that it has morphed into. And most Britons want none of it. But in over 40 years their economy has become deeply entangled in the trading part of the Union and hence the problem.
9
Sorry, Brexit will have to take a back seat to climate change as the most boring important story in the world. Not to ignore the severity of this, self inflicted, wound on the UK but the same apathy applies to a far more greater threat, When it comes to global warming "Nothing ever changes. The details are mind numbing. And it will all determine the future of the planet." People will always put up boundaries and nature will always ignore them.
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@Rick Gage
Thank you for saying exactly what I was thinking.
8
@Rick Gage Climate Change is the most important story but it is not boring. Death, destruction and famine. These are terrible and anything but boring. Our actions and attention should be riveted on the need to reverse the global disaster of burning fossil fuels.
13
@Rick Gage..the human population explosion also
1
Brexit has been a grand success for the UK overlords which wish to continue running things for their private benefit without interference by the public. Boredom with politics will allow continuing privatization of national wealth, more austerity, more imposed unnecessary hardship on anyone unfortunate enough to need help from the government, and, best of all, low taxes and little government regulation.
82
There we have the real story behind why a mere 1/3 of voters have become the “peoples’ will”. Reporters should be digging up these facts, not spouting gossip and hare-brained predictions based upon tea leaves.
Since the British public started this mess - which could be the nation's most significant decision in at least half a century - you would think Parliament would want them to weigh in. Perhaps see if they still agree now they know their choices. After all, the Conservatives will never recover in the future if they get this wrong, since they completely own it.
97
The British “public” did not start this. Rather David Cameron & the Tories made a deal with the devil (Nigel Farage & UKip, the DUP) to hold on to power when there was a hung parliament. Some blame can also be laid at the feet of hard-leftish Labour leader Corbyn, who refuses to come clean about his anti-EU stance, again to hold onto his presumed ascendancy into power.
We are seeing the same thing stateside where the GOP are willing to sell the soul of democracy to stay in power as well.
In the case of Brexit: yes, the public bears some responsibility but the leaders have caused this, know the consequences & still refuse to do the right thing and call a second referendum.
18