We will stand by and watch another PRC cultural genocide?
In 50 years, will western China be entirely Han, and will rear bumpers in US public library parking lots feature UV-cracked and peeling “Free the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region” stickers?
We have maximum leverage now.
Protect non-Chinese IP.
Protect the global environment.
Protect the Uyghur people.
Good article from Forbes with a long term view. The article was written in August 2018, so I do not know if the author may have adjusted his thinking. I do believe that if China is indeed having problems that in the end, it will not be good for America.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/yuwahedrickwong/2018/08/23/the-reality-of-chinas-economic-slowdown/#19114914d86d
"For now, however, its a mistake to fixate on China’s GDP growth rates, which is to miss the bigger picture altogether. In 2010, 10% real GDP growth added $606 billion to the economy. In 2017, however, 6% growth added $1,202 billion, double the amount of the 10% growth in 2010. Even though India’s real GDP growth rates exceeded China’s in recent years, the fact of the matter is that in any two years period since 2010 what China added to its GDP is bigger than the entire Indian GDP. As a result, the gap between the Chinese and the Indian economy is getting bigger, not smaller. In spite of China’s economic slowdown, China’s global economic reach and influence is set to expand, and that’s the bigger picture that we need to watch."
3
Re John's below "PRC China is a totalitarian ethnonationalist state that is currently interning 1 million+ Uyghurs in concentration camps.",
I wonder whether famed NYTimes columnist Thomas Friedman is reconsidering his many pieces praising China's advances over America. 2008: "The rich parts of China, the modern parts of Beijing or Shanghai or Dalian, are now more state of the art than rich America. The buildings are architecturally more interesting, the wireless networks more sophisticated, the roads and trains more efficient and nicer. And, I repeat, they did not get all this by discovering oil. They got it by digging inside themselves."
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/27/opinion/27friedman.html
Mr. Friedman wrote column after column of China's superior system's. I always thought, how, how, how can an American not foresee that a totalitarian regime cannot stand up to America's free system over time. China has gone all the way now with its "dear" leader for life. How will that come out, Mr. Friedman?
Will Mr. Friedman reconsider his misguided paeons to Chinese superiority?
1
The US is as dependent up on China’s success as China is on the US success Trump in his ignorance is hurting the US economy, $12B to support the Trump state industries target by China and China in similar position to help the industries hurt by Trump’s tariffs. All for no reason other Trump’s ignorance and ego.
Hopefully Mueller can save us with Trump with solid case of Trump’s high crimes and misdemeaners, Trump’s criminal acts in paying off his various sexual partners to influence the election, Trump’s more dangerous criminal acts in colluding with Russia to successfully overturn US elections in favor or Russia’s candidate Trump, the weapon Russia hopes will damage the US.
But let's see hmmmm.... who is in more deep political trouble right now? Trump or Xi? Who is going to come up for reelection? Trump or Xi? Who has lot of friends in high government places that support him? Trump or Xi? Who is Mueller investigating? Trump or X?
Simply put, it a strategy of which guy can outlast the other
Be careful for what you wish for. The Trump adminstration may be playing with fire.
From a recent NY Times article by David Leonhardt:
"America’s business executives used to be strong supporters of a pro-China policy, but they, too, have cooled. Hank Paulson, the former Treasury secretary, has long been a vigorous advocate of close ties with China, so I was struck by a sober warning he gave to the Asia Society in New York the other day.
“Economic tensions are reaching a breaking point,” Paulson cautioned in his speech. He concluded, and I think he’s right, that if the U.S. and China don’t resolve their problems, the world will face “a systemic risk of monumental proportions."
It is interesting to notice that it used to be when China reported big improvements in economic data, the media didn't quite believe them and took it with a grain of salt. Now China reported bad economic data, the media trusted it and Wall Street took the pain to sympathize with them.
1
Everybody knows that the unbalanced patterns of trade associated with China's rapid export-led growth can't continue forever. The question is, can they navigate to a more consumption-led production pattern without triggering massive unemployment. One thing they could look at would be increased spending for the social safety net, led by healthcare spending for their aging population, but also including public employment programs (including for health care and elder care) and income-based welfare programs.
Guess they are trying to get the numbers to converge towards reality. Never trusted a single number coming out of China. With capital flight at the speed of light, a bogus banking system there is no way an economy can show those numbers for so many years non-stop.
The Chinese political system is built on the "don't complain and we will raise your standard of living" bargain, but that policy created a debt bubble starting in '09 to ensure the economy stayed juiced. Trump may have exacerbated it, but these roots go much deeper than a trade war. Now those chickens are coming home to roost, and the Chinese army is a few million versus 1.4 billion. President Xi has made himself and the Party into demigods, and now they will be blamed when things go wrong. Uh oh.
2
I question the integrity of these reporters (especially the photographer), who claim the picture shows workers lining up at the train station this week (Dec. 2018), while in fact the information displayed on the board in the picture clearly shows subsequent dates to be Jan. 28 and Jan. 29. Hence, one can easily infer the date the picture was taken is Jan. 27. Unless the Dongguan train station purposefully displays the wrong date to confuse passengers (highly unlikely), this photo has to be taken from an earlier year.
6
It's a stock photo. Actually this is a short line compared to what I have seen in Shanghai over the last few years. I guess you can see lines like this at airports un America without anybody speaking of mass layoffs.
1
I'm sure the American stock market is a pretty good indicator of what's in store for the US in the very near future.
For some reason I really do not have confidence that the people in charge of our Government have the talent to address these important issues. They seem to just go around attacking things and institutions without coming up with sound plans for facing our problems.
I also fear the the next two years will be worst than the last two as Trump is facing so many personal problems that he cannot have time to provide any sound advice. If his performance with the Democrats on the wall is any indication he is starting to do irrational things.
1
I love this type of pundrity. Xi is quaking in his boots that Trump has a leg up and the Chinese should cave to sell more autos? Certainly the Chinese market is feeling the pressure of the global economy which suggests that a lot of Wall Street types are shorting the direction of the economy going into 2019. Any suggestion that our president can out wait China via tariffs is a joke. The US economy is heading for a readjustment where the money movers are going to see their portfolios come down to earth. Trump is going to be a lame duck due to his legal issues, and Xi is in trouble? Really, who's the adult in the room?
The headline implies the slowing economy as a challenge to Xi, could be. The financial crisis of 2008 and China springing out of it to lead in economic recovery is taken in China as proof of failing Capitalism and strength of a managed Socialist economy; it will please many if ten years later the onus shifts the other way. China used Keynesian policies of governmental expenditures to turn the economy but now carrying a debt load public and private that may limit options in bad times.
Xi has the defense of nationalism if problem seen as an attack on the ‘Chinese Dream’ designed to damage China’s development, but opponents made on the way up who will see problems otherwise. Trump’s trade hawks aided in any event; if they do not get too excited.
3
So much nonsense packed into one paragraph: "China’s economy has slowed sharply in recent months, presenting perhaps the biggest challenge to its top leader, Xi Jinping, in his six years of rule. At home, he faces difficult choices that could rekindle growth but add to the country’s long-term problems, like its heavy debt".
IF China's economy has slowed at all we won't know until March, 2019 and, even then it's not the economy that's slowing down–its the economy's acceleration rate, which will be 1.5% lower than last year's acceleration rate.
IF it slows down at all it will pose no challenge to Mr. Xi, whose approval is 95%.
And China's debt burden is the lowest of any major economy: while nominally the same as the US and the EU, around 250% of GDP, the high growth rate retires it in half the time ours needs and, besides, the quality of its debt is AAA, and very profitable, with a Keynesian multiple of 300%.
3
3 months without pay isn't a vacation, it's a layoff.
4
I don't think Trump realizes that any harm done to China's economy echoes in the US stock market.
most Americans don't feel the effects of the stock market. They do feel the effects of unemployment, commodity prices, taxes, and lower wages. No one struggling to survive is looking at their 401k, and if you've struggled for years and finally feel safe, you aren't worried about something that was never attainable before.
4
If the U.S. economy is booming, how can the Chinese economy not be? We buy everything from China. Our manufacturing has not moved an inch. Tariffs have not kicked in yet. The "trade war" is just a saying. So what gives? Either this report is highly exaggerated or something else is going on in China. I can guess what the problem is. I don't know of a single wealthy Chinese national who does not have an escape plan. Who does not have a home and money in other parts of the world. Who does not have their children attending schools in other parts of the world. Instead of passing more restrictive regulations on people and currency, the Chinese government better look at themselves and consider reform. Problem is that they also have escape plans! I can't think of any other country in the world at their level where everyone wants to get out!
4
David, I’ve been doing business in China for 28 years.
This report is not exaggerated. Let’s talk about one industry- Handbags. All 99% of the major importers of bags from China to USA have already moved production from China to India and Vietnam. And they have reduced their buying from a China. Why, because they can’t afford the 10 percent tarriff.
So what’s the result. China bag factories of 9-10,000 worker each are sitting idle. And this has an exponential effect with all the associating industries in China depending on bag making from leather tanneries to linings to buckle makers down to the trucking and logistic companies.
Biggest loser is China govt because there is much less tax revenue.
Obviously you David and all the TRUMP BASHERS Have no idea about business.
That’s why he will win.
10
@Mike K.
That's it exactly. Americans aren't going to be paying those 10 or 25 percent tariffs because the supply chains are shifting quickly to countries not subject to the tariffs. And even if Trump and Xi come to an agreement and the tariffs come off, there's no guaranty those supply chains will ever return to China. This is a Godsend for Vietnam, in particular.
If anything, current trade statistics underestimate the long-term effect of the tariffs because there's been a good deal of stockpiling in the past several months to beat the tariffs. If there's no political resolution, the big drop will be coming next year.
1
I think, looking at some of the comments, it is not about trade or IP at all. It is about us (U.S.) and them and fear of being overtaken. That cannot end well.
3
@Andreas
That is a sound reading of policy making motivation springing from the Us vs. Them public mind, and its political pay-off, rather than economic reasoning. But that's politics. And yes 'That can not end well.'
The real political effects lie ahead.
China has always been good at faking weakness when it suited Party purposes.
3
I can't help but observe the very large number of, presumably American commenters here, that are impling or straight out stating that the U.S. is the 'bad guy' here and China is the 'victim', simply as their default attitude and posture.
There truly is an enormous amount of self-loathing in our country right now.
7
China's economic slowdown is hurting America's economy directly. When their markets tumble, so do ours. Everyone with half a brain knew this would happen because our economies are inseparably intertwined. But as long as China gets hurt more than America does, Trump is the winner. Republicans see our oncoming recession as a necessary sacrifice for the sake of winning a war. But Americans get tired of war very quickly. And unlike America, China has a government that doesn't care what its population thinks.
3
@Randy Thompson
Last sentence can be true, but the CCP's approval is riding in large measure on the country's economic achievements and Xi knows that. He will do what he can to avoid 'the business cycle' downturn that seems to be happening. Interesting times ahead for both countries.
Xi and the arrogance of the Chinese Government that think they can continue to steal information forever, and engage in predatory trade practices, while becoming increasingly hostile and belligerent toward their neighbors and the USA is responsible for this growing misery of the Chinese People.
Thank God that Trump is finally standing up to the Chinese and protecting both working Americans, the U.S. economy, jobs, and our national security. Let's hope that Xi and China rethink their hostility and belligerence before more damage is done. Lets thank your lucky starts that weak worthless appeasing Obama/Democrat are not longer in control. Trump will get a good deal for American workers and jobs, and there will be no deal and China will pay a far higher price than the USA which is booming thanks to Trump and Republicans!
7
I know that it’s Christmas time and everything but we are Times readers and there are limits to wishful thinking.
6
He may regret President for Life...
3
Common shill analysts with 5.9 percent in growth expectations, you don't grow at 6 percent in perpetuity, especially if you are the second largest economy in the world, US grows at 3 percent.
2
Americans are about to find out whether China is much stronger or weaker than previously thought.
4
@Tiger shark
So is China.
3
The best way to hurt trade even more is to stop buying Chinese, re-use old items, and buy second hand when possible.
The article also mentions that two Canadians are detained in China. It does not mention that China arrested them because the US requested Canada to arrest Meng (the CFO of Huawei) in Vancouver. She is free, our two citizens are in jail.
Canada now has to find some way to get them back.
Thanks guys.
Thanks also to your president who has made what was a legal matter virtually impossible to negotiate by making the kidnapping a political issue.
With friends like the US and China, who needs enemies.
7
@John F
fyi the bulk of Chinese exports to US are manufactured for US multinationals or bought at trade fairs by US buyers from big box stores.
apple didn't spend a dime setting up factory in china. it was Foxconn, a Taiwanese company.
1
@willie koyote
Not sure about Apple its engineers certainly initially had input with Foxconn, but the bulk of American investment is done with Joint Ventures where 51% China 49% US (or more accurately Corp. stockholders) owned.
Apple avoided that and just lavashes in the profits through marketing and avoiding taxation.
1
Endemic corruption at local and national level, multiple sets of books presenting whatever financial picture of a company is desired, state owned enterprises that make product for which there is no market, shadow banking. . .China, in the nutshell.
9
Like in States, there is equally hardliners in China think the military and trade confrontation is inevitable and in a no winner trade and military conflict, China can outlast the US because of the US is a divided country governed under the inefficient democracy where the legislators are constantly under pressure for the next election.
All the wells have been poisonous in China and States when both sides ratchet up their rhetoric and snatch hostage. There is no going back on this trade wars as the world is heading to a recession with no winner at the end.
4
Americans need to understand that Trump is not waging this trade war with China on behalf of the American worker, but on behalf of transnational corporations. He is fighting to win open access to the Chinese market, consisting of 1.3 billion Chinese, on terms that will benefit, instead of penalizing, these coporations.
These corporations want to open factories and stores in China and sell products to China without having to sacrifice their intellectual property and not have to compete with state-owned enterprises.
They want the same deal with the same benefits they have here to make the most money possible without any restrictions.
None of this will help the American worker. In fact, it will only hasten their demise. If successful, It will lead to more offshoring of manufacturing in China and restrict competition by extending the same patent protection for the technological and industrial giants that dominate world trade.
Just like the recent Trump corporate tax cut, this trade war is all about enriching the one percent at the expense of everyone else.
Trump is their champion, not yours.
17
@Dino Reno
the truth of the matter is the US wants unfettered access of their financial market to strip everything of value out of china.
we need banking service here and else where. but who needs casino banking?
1
Chinese exports to the US (and elsewhere) have been doing fine despite the 10% tariffs because the yuan has depreciated 10% relative to the dollar. On the other hand it means prices of imports have risen about 10% for those paying in Yuan and that would slow domestic consumer growth somewhat.
US export mfg would really benefit from a steady lower dollar.
The economy in China is actually strong . Just a little slower then last year. This article is not accurate. The government actually loosened finance controls sbout 4 months ago and it usually takes 6 to 8 months to pick up after monetary changes. China has 3.8 trillion surplus. Get a grip. Exports are doing great.
The US economy is going well also, the major difference is that we had a 200 billion deficit. China had a surplus
4
China will not take the Trump bait. The central government's economic planners are a very nimble, creative, flexible, pragmatic and powerful group who will do what it takes to keep the economy on track.
7
Just talked to my friend who works in an export company in Dongguan, the city mentioned in the article. She told me that their business is actually better this year and she can't afford to take the new year's day off to visit me in Shanghai. I have my respect for NYT, but I seriously doubt their due diligence in fact checking. Also, someone already pointed out the obvious problem in the first picture. It was taken in or before Jan of 2018!
25
@Billy Lee
we have a free press here in the US. however, it is still a propaganda toll of the MIC.
Yet another big win for Tariff Don. He only he made this happen. Economics, by Gut, is easy.
1
Well Gee somehow the customer has the longer lever, who could possibly know that? Now I bet this is an over statement as well. Only time will tell if we get a much better deal on trade and relations with China. It might be great for their economy to slow that would reduce their carbon emissions.
1
@vulcanalex
Not only their carbon emissions will be reduced. I have long predicted that Donald will be the CO2 cutting president. Remember what W. did in that regard.
1
In recent years, particularly since 2005 the U. S. has been generally been reducing CO2 emissions. China's emissions have increased.
The largest reason I avoid "made in China" products is that I view China as an adversary to our country and our way of life and an oppressor of its citizens in ways our Bill of Rights forbids. I would much rather buy from a freer friendlier nation like Taiwan which China appear to consider part of "One China".
10
Don't be surprised if China threatens to call in its United States debt, just like in 1929 when the Stock Market wobbled and crashed. Then we'll see what a true ignoramus Trump is, as our economy starts to wobble and crash.
2
US Treasuries for sale!
@northlander
either our proxy Belgium pick it up or someone from the cayman islands. it's all the same pocket.
For the picture: “Passengers waiting for trains out of Dongguan, China, this week. Factories are sending many workers on Lunar New Year holiday more than two months before it starts.”
Does any one notice that it’s not the right time for the picture? The date, as shown in the train status board, is January 28. That’s January 28 in 2018 or earlier. It’s about the time of a Chinese New Year (the spring festival). All tickets are sold out as the board shows, which is normal around a Chinese New Year.
12
"China’s consumers and businesses are losing confidence. "
The reporters assume Chinese consumers and businesses have lost confidence in Xi Jinping.
But hold on. Not necessarily.
"The public blame for a prolonged downturn could ultimately fall on him (Xi)."
Or it could fall on Donald Trump.
The Chinese have lived frugally for centuries and are savers.
Chinese households tend to save more cash than their spendthrift peers in the Western world Only Kuwait and Bermuda had higher rates.
Recent affluence has enabled China's economy to become more consumer based than export based.
So to pull back from purchasing cars and factories letting workers go while inventory piles up makes sense for a nation of cautious citizens waiting to see what transpires with the trade war waged by Trump.
It's wishful thinking if Americans think that the Chinese will rise up against Xi and demand "democracy" as a result of belt tightening - which the Chinese blame on Trump.
Trump will be gone in two years.
3
@Mimi
Wasn't Trump supposed to be gone in Feb 2017?
1
@Mimi methink on average they have higher IQ than amercians.
2
Trump is not aggressive enough in a trade war vis-a-vis China. All China has to do to avoid trade war is play by the rules, viz., do not take the technology by threatening the companies with transfer technology or else, alternatively stealing the technologies, just play by free trade rules. Trump in addition to trade war should also change the WTO rules so that countries like China no longer benefit from rules meant for developing nations. Trade wars are better than naval warfare in South China Sea.
5
@Kodali
nobody expected the Chinese to survive when they were admitted into the wto. they not only survive, but thrive within wto rules.
technology transfer and joint ventures are permitted under wto rules.
Now would be a good time for Europe and other Western countries to start making demands.
China's economy collapsing might be bad for the global economy in the short term, but in the long term it is very good for a wide range of reasons.
23
@Bob Robert
UK, our staunchest ally was the first of our many European allies to join AIIB. they must have seen something you ignored.
Chancellor Angela Merkel visited China more than a handful of time the past year. pivot to asia, indeed.
Trump's pathetic plan to "Make America Great Again" by starting an uncalled for trade war with China so economies can slowly crash all around the world, while everybody becomes poorer by the day, with all savings and net worth in the stock markets dropping like a rock to boot.
People will be abandoned, sleeping in their parked cars in burnt out, empty parking lots in the coming year.
3
@RV Except citizens of the US who will have a lot of jobs making all those things we buy. Pretty simple over time.
3
@vulcanalex
The only way people will buy all those things is if American workers are paid the same as Chinese workers surely. But when you think about it $7 an hour minimum wage , no guaranteed hours and no benefits is pretty much on a par already.
2
The stock market is telling you that this won’t work; if the market crashes, no one will care about DJT anymore. ‘The populism’ is a failing farce! If you want to pay $50 for a cheap T-shirt go ahead, don’t ruin it for the rest of us though with these silly taxes, I mean, tariffs... America is about elite capitalism, always has been, always will be. And the stock market is the beating heart of American capitalism. There will be no party if the market tanks. You need to accept that! There will be no party!
1
We have made some bad trade offs - Trump isn't wrong about that. He promised that his aggressive, arm-twisting to re-negotiating these economic deals and behaviors would be a "winning!" approach. Just because he's an unethical, prevaricating pre-felon, that doesn't mean he won't succeed in making the trade situation more fair and thereby improving the job and wage opportunities for the people who voted for him. Media analysts tell us every 30 minutes or so, "He's failing! He's failed to deliver!" But...here we are, with the Chinese government in a bit of a pickle, and probably ready to make some concessions. I vote for: "Let's wait and see."
7
This is not diplomacy. This Trump insulting and bullying the rest of the world including our allies. There will be and are ramifications for this behavior.
The US brand and reputation has taken a huge hit under Trump. What’s to wait for? Canada to come crawling to US on their knees over dairy prices?
1
@Mike OK Diplomacy in these areas has failed in the past, why would anybody do the same failed things again. Now the new approach might not work, but the old one would surely fail. SIMPLE!!!
3
A long time ago I read a book about news reporters, always lagging in time, tend to report the most bullish stories when the market is at the brink of collapse - because this is when the market has saturated itself to the point of over supplying, and a cutback+layoffs, together with a recession is at the doorstep.
Only last week, the Times reported that the "China Model" defies all western consensus and simply works.
Can the timing be that good?
1
Not all that complicated Chinas growth and economic power was driven by its ability to provide a vast population of low cost workers. Now that the country is being outbid by Vietnam and Africa that revenue and those jobs are gone . Chinas inability to evolve its economy beyond cheap labor is its undoing. Innovation can not exist in a country where everything is tightly controlled by a central government/dictatorship . China thought they could copy , bully and steal there way to an advanced economy and is finding that is not the case
13
My first reaction, I hate to say, was that I hope Trump's base doesn't give him too much credit for what he will claim as a triumphant victory, in this stupid trade war of his own creation. The right wing media will certainly bandy it around until 2020. Sick and tired of these phony international disputes that are started by Trump, then ended in frustration by weary negotiators. And in case he hadn't noticed, his beloved stock market is tanking, too.
17
"China’s economy has slowed sharply in recent months, presenting perhaps the biggest challenge to its top leader, Xi Jinping, in his six years of rule."
Since 2002, I have spent a total of 16 months in China, and even with that small sample of time I get the idea that if real economic hardship occurred and people got angry and took to the streets - like we see in France now - the Chinese government would collapse overnight, like eastern European communist governments did after the fall of the Berlin wall. It just feels like the government's grip on power is much more tenuous than it appears.
5
@mpound More likely as in the past the government would use violence on the people. They actually understand that so there is no chance of them having a revolt.
3
Trump will claim he is winning, just like Reagan claimed he won by outspending the USSR on the arms race. Will likely reap same result as Reagan, too - recession, inflation, sky high interest rates.
Soooo much winning.
3
@GH ... collapse of USSR caused recession, inflation, sky high interest rates!?
1
America might be just another casino for Trump to bankrupt and walk away from, and get away with doing that.
Could he do the same to China, and still get away with it? To the global economy?
2
Individual 1 campaigned as a human wrecking ball who promised to break things. Things are being broken, and promises kept.
9
Here comes the world wide recession. Of course it will be the Democrats fault, McDonnell has that loop running in his head. Of course it will not effect the rich, they can probably make a profit from it.
1
Throughout history the story of China has been the rise and fall of the central governing authority. If strong, the Emperor or CP can command gigantic levies of workers to repair the vast networks of canals and levees required to keep the rivers from flooding the farmlands and killing people in the 100s of thousands. When the central government weakened -- when it lost the "Mandate of Heaven" -- internal or external forces swept the existing ruling structures away, and new powers took hold. In our day, the great armies of laborers don't move whole landscapes by the wheelbarrow, but work in factories or on construction projects. Up till now, perhaps, the idea was to build the economy and national wealth; now it may be more about keeping people busy doing work that does not really add to China's wealth. The country is full of empty buildings and cities, and highways without traffic -- all because the elite is increasingly terrified by the vast numbers of restless workers who are waking up to the truth of a command economy. This government has been wrong time and time again, but now the chickens are truly coming home to roost. This huge country is growing old before it gets rich. We may really be about to witness epic changes in the Middle Kingdom.
25
@Michael A really fascinating comment, thank you.
1
"Government-led spending adds to the huge debt pile, making that long-term drag on growth even worse."
Municipal debt seems to be the part of the iceberg lying mostly hidden below the waterline. If municipal defaults accelerate, the Titanic could be in trouble.
1
@woofer Who would they default from, higher government???
Chinese workers leaving early for the Holiday, unpaid? Welcome to middle income America who has been sent home from their jobs over the last 30 years on permanent unpaid "holiday."
9
Now that we see a trade war is winnable let's build the wall. Wages will rise along with our standard of living.
4
@Brian - Isn't Trump waiting for Mexico to pay for that wall? Wasn't that the promise?
3
NOW
If you look at your HP laser printer's serial number you will find
1, Small (personal) laser printers are made in Vietnam (# starts with V)
2. Medium sized (business models) are made in Mexico (M)
or China (C)
3. Big ones, such as copiers, that scan, email copy are made in China (C)
NEXT you will see,
1. Small ones are made in Vietnam
2. Medium ones in Vietnam
3. Large ones in China (fingers crossed)
Just as in the US, work is migrating to lower wage countries.
So people get laid off
Get it ?
And a laser printer is a sophisticated product, not textiles
11
Medium made in Mexico would suit me better. If we can’t buy made in USA then made in North America is pretty good.
5
@HP Repair Guy Large ones in Mexico, non in China. And a laser printer is not really that complicated either.
Debtor's Heaven:
In a world awash with debt, most of which will have to be forgiven or written down, who would want to be the fool who is all paid up and doesn't owe a cent?
Where can I sign up for my multi-million dollar credit line?
Patriarchy is always going to be a competition against Nature. Who cares which male dominant system is slightly more successful if we are simply destined to crowd each other off the Planet?
Does anyone really still believe that having the biggest rate of economic growth is all that matters?
Are we just like locusts?
3
@Carl Hultberg ... you're independently wealthy, no need to worry about jobs?
@Carl Hultberg
Concerning your last sentence, actually, I was thinking rats. Or Ebola virus. But locusts certainly is a fitting simile.
@Bruce Rozenblit
This is a war by other means between No 1 Global power and a challenger. There are battles in many fronts and this one if economic. China has been benefitting at the expense of US industry for a long time. The US needs to wake up and a put a stop to it. Big manufacturing companies siphoned out most factory jobs to China with the understanding that alternate higher paying jobs will be created in service and knowledge economy. But China then resorted to blackmailing US tech companies to part with their technology as the price to do business there. Add to it the covert means China employed to steal the most sensitive IP that will determine the next gen jobs and their location. The US cannot allow this to happen whereby it not only lost blue collar jobs but also the promised knowledge economy jobs to China. What do we think the next generation US population will do then, twiddle their thumbs for the China overlords to throw in some crumbs! We need to endure some short term pain now to secure our long term future.
8
"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of a cancer cell."
Edward Abbey
21
If it's true that America's trade is seriously hurting China, no one should be proud. This is a shameful enterprise that will draw both the US and China down. Make no mistake about this, our economies are deeply intertwined. China is strong, its people tempered by decades of endured hardships to get to be number 1 or 2 or 1 or 2, depending on when and where you look. The notion that China will be brought down like the Soviet Union is a farce. People who believe this have no knowledge of the strength of the Chinese people. Americans have one big problem when it comes to China, they believe their own propaganda. Shame!
5
@Blue Zone And what would you prefer? That we continue to assist the rise of a totalitarian surveillance state that harvests the organs of political minorities?
The Chinese state have all but stated their ultimate goal is supremacy. Pain now to hinder China is well worth the price.
26
@Medes People with a cold war mindset like you are what behind this trade war nonsense. If you think of the Chinese as just a bunch of communists out to get us, then you have no knowledge of modern China and no conception of how intertwined our economies are and the world's for that matter. If by "supremacy" you mean that the Chinese will make more cheaper and higher quality merchandise than anybody else, yup there you go supremacy alright. Trade war with China is counterproductive, a closed-minded idea out of the brains that support the Trump Wall with Mexico and similar uneducated concepts. And let's suppose your wish to bring down the government of China bears fruit, it won't, trust me, vut just for the sake of argument let's assume that, then China will convulse into chaos and wind out with Russian style "democracy". Ours is already headed by a corrupt crook so we are headed in the same direction. What an achievement! Enough nonsense by closet Trumpists gone wild already! Trade war with China is wrongheaded nonsense. Negotiation is the only way.
1
@Blue Zone It is clear that China seeks to usurp America and the west as the dominant global power. Why would I support this when their current political system and state influenced culture is diametrically opposed to the enlightenment ideals that continue to exist in the west?
5
The super rich and powerful of the world are just a handful and yet they were able to grab such a large chunk of the pie. China, just like the US, has its own .01% too and the world suffers because of their cupidity. The critical mass of the poor and the rich has been reached. Never viable from day one, this indecent division of the global capital is an abomination.
When one realizes the extent of the destruction by men on the Earth for money hidden in dark banks, these words from James (5, 1-6) in the Scriptures come to my mind :
''Your wealth have rotted, your fine wardrobe has grown motheaten, your gold and silver have corroded, and their corrosion shall be a testimony against you... You lived in wanton luxury on the earth; you fattened yourselves for the day of slaughter.'' Is the end nearing?
4
The reason for this “cupidity” you describe is a lack of respect and practice of Capitalism. Unless business funnels income downward to the employee, income inequality becomes the norm, another self inflicted wound on society. The GOP is a major contributor to this attitude by their systematic destruction of labor unions.
3
@DENOTE MORDANT
As we speak, species all around the world are being decimated daily by the hundreds and habitats as well. Somehow, scientists and Hollywood have been able to sell the idea that our world is going to go on and on for hundreds and thousands of years while it is obvious the Earth will not sustain such non-stop destruction to continue for very long . People are piled up in boxes smaller and smaller in highrises higher and higher within bigger and bigger metropolis all around the world. There is no hope we can go back, for all doors have closed. Young people realize it, and they see that there is no place for them anymore. They commit suicide in great numbers, are depressed or live a meaningless life in ugly inner city neighborhoods. Only blind people destroy their environment for money, animals don't do it. And only blind people don't see that we have arrived at a point of no return.
5
@Joseph Louis
I would surmise from your hopeless report that your end is near?
1
Is the Chinese economy slowing down (I doubt it) or is its growth slowing down? There is a big difference. We should have a growth rate like China's slowed down rate.
3
Most of the slow down in growth is due to clamp down on shadow bank financing. It was getting
out of hand and would have created major
financial crisis in future. The only way to
reinvigorate the economy is for the central
government to use major stimulus,tax cut
for middle class and subsidy for the low income
people. Central government debt is low. Also
with low inflation peoples bank (central bank)
can use QE to loosen money supply and lower
interest rate. It is slowing down but not
in recession. There is no law that says
economies have to grow at fast rate continuously. slow down or even mild
recession will adjust the economy and remove the excesses. It is not doom and gloom except
for those "experts" who fixated on growth.
3
China in the long run will not be in trouble. It has huge billion plus population and the entire world as its market for its products vs USA with a small number of markets concentrated in very selective fields. The ill timed and ill planned trade war is proving counter productive in this interconnected world with clear proof in today's stock market with Dow dropping 400 points -directly related to slight whiff of China slowdown news.
The trade war has done ZERO in reducing our trade deficit, but caused parts of economy to slow down and caused permanent damage to our exporters's customer base. The housing slow down is real and the contagion can spread quickly to the rest of economy.
5
Rural workers are out in a country that according to liberal trade theory needs to climb up the value chain
Just like in the US
Welcome to globalization, Chinese Comrads
5
To everyone who thinks the People's Republic is on the verge of collapse, all I can say is, "Row, row, row your boat!" A childish refrain for a childish thought.
What is most disturbing is this myopic tautological vision of China keeps us, the United States, from adapting and doing what we need to do in order to thrive. I am confident that, along with the 800 million Chinese dramatically pulled out of poverty in a matter of a few decades, China will solve this current downturn.
We will see relatively soon if President Xi is able to change course by taking decisive corrective actions; or, if our Criminal-in-Chief and a deadlocked Congress will win the day. I'm betting on the country with 6.5 million undergraduates and 0.5 million postgraduates majoring in science, engineering, and medicine, the largest scientific workforce in the world.
Americans, including some Chinese Americans who see themselves through round eyes, are highly disrespectful of China. They think the Chinese are subservient copycats whose only advantage is size; that their form of government is inferior. Well, to paraphrase Farmers, China knows a thing or two because—in her 5,000 + years!—China's seen a thing or two.
To quote the Apostle Me, "This downturn, too, shall pass."
5
Reality Check is glass half full or half empty . American people are own worse enemy . End world war two usa made everything .Made in usa was the top of quality chain ment freedom to world. Now made in usa means raw materials came from usa. Who suffering worse is mother earth oceans being poluted by dumping massive ships waste from usa. Usa turned blind eye to what done to earth so has its people who consume imports record amount. Our children children will pay for our excesses an look back to worse generation who only saw profit at expense of own children future.
4
Trump has been a dumb bull in a 'China' shop--smashing global stability, US markets, retirement nest eggs of the aging baby boomers.
Clearly ignorant tantrums are not savvy enough to generate useful change; destruction is not the same as negotiation. Trump's policies have created casualties, his tax cuts failed to promote meaningful investment in infrastructure; the debt now faces increasing interest burden. Most of the momentum for improved growth and employment started before his presidency (look at a graph!).
He would like to take credit for small economic perks but- as with his incompetent management of his company, campaign, alliances and private life- he would have us believe he is not responsible for any bad stuff.
The emperor has no clothes!
7
The problem here is that calling what the US is trying to do a "trade war" misses the point. Trump's attack on China will do nothing for the US economy. US imports last month were higher than ever before and the US trade deficits -insofar as they matter, and they do not - will keep getting bigger. China cannot just order its private citizens to buy more American goods, which are overpriced because of the strong US dollar. The Trump attack on China is an effort to derail China's rise, to keep China down and keep the US in a dominant position. That is dangerous for a number of reasons. First, the US is completely untrustworthy and dangerous to the international order. It abuses its power and it is too dangerous to be allowed to remain at the top, unchallenged. Second, China can't be kept down, but it can be hurt and its advancement can be delayed. But this will be accompanied by a China that will remember this last effort by the US to keep it down. There will be consequences down the road, just like how the US willingness to take advantage of Russian weakness in the 1990s led to Russian election interference decades later. Third, China cannot really agree to cripple its own growth and development of new technologies. That would be harmful to the world, which needs China's leadership on climate change, and self-destructive to China's own long-term growth. Whatever China agrees to under pressure, it will find ways around it. An agreement reached under duress is no agreement.
9
China is not really in trouble, it just looks that way. Chinese kids have study schedules that average 74 hours each week and workers have the 9 am to 9 pm, six days a week work schedule (72 hours). Plenty of time available to cut back.
Then there are the huge foreign reserves of the central government that can be selectively deployed to strengthen strategic industrial sectors.
Plus the $600 Billion or so of global investments in large-scale projects.
China is a fire-breathing Dragon. Now consider its competition: the US - not much more than a big talking paper Tiger.
When it comes to making money, if you bet against the Chinese you'll lose every time, although they might let you win one to so you'll keep giving them your money.
For decades China has had the pedal to the metal, red-lining the economy to 10% growth and during all those decades the rulers have had both feet on the brakes. Cooling down the engines is overdue and will be good for the Chinese economy. What's happening is a restructuring.
And it's been planned for. China is not like the US. Their rulers are not lawyers and politicians - they're engineers.
Engineers have multidimensional contingency plans to adjust every input. Their workers have done so well over the decades they'll be far ahead even after drastic cuts. Remember that their savings rate and family ties are far stronger than in the US.
The Chinese are masters of the Tao, with centuries of adaptation to circumstances.
14
@Fourteen interesting if you submitted the China for japan this would pass for an Times oped on Japan in the early 90s
1
@JamesHK
have you ever asked yourself why Japan's economy took a dive in the 90's? US asked japan to commit economic suicide because it saw Japan's growing economy as a threat.
google plaza accord.
china is not a colony of US. all china has to do is wait for US empire to self destruct.
The Japanese bubble was so overinflated that it didn’t need any outside help to burst.
1
China has more the twice the consumers in US an EU combined, and also at twice the growth rate. The tariif wars will hurt the world economy, but China can print more Yuans to prevent a domestic reccesion even with lower exports. Like they did 10 years ago.
The US will likely see a bigger trade deficit without the China market, tighter credits, banks going belly up and leading to a bigger reccession. Like we saw 10 years ago!
4
@Chin Wu
That's right. A simple 10% currency devaluation by China will completely cover 10% tariffs.
@Chin Wu
china has diversified its economy for some years. it has established factories in Africa and southeast asia. they export jobs else where for a change.
china's consumer spending surpassed the US. in other words they can manufacture for its own needs instead of export.
Very basically, Chinese worker that streamed from the country side to the cities are now losing jobs to people willing to work for evn less. In Vietnam, and Africa at 1/20th (!)
The free trade of neo-liberal economists has reached China - with the same political effects as in the US to follow
If interested in details , read my long post.
3
@Woof,right. Low end stuff can be
made in low wage countries. This is the reason China is trying to move up the
chain in technology. If it doesn't it will be
doomed to low growth or stagnation Trump
and China hawks see it as a challenge to
US hegemony.
2
@s.khan
the world's three big telecom: Samsung, Huawei, and apple. Huawei is a bit ahead in 5G technology. that's why US tries to sabotage it with unproven accusations.
that's the reason zte was in the crosshair, and now Huawei. it's not worth the hassle. Huawei will walk away from the US market.
While the President gloats about how China's economy is hurting from His trade war, my retirement account is getting pummeled.
5
I see so much righteous indignation at China these days, as if the only thing that matters in our relationship is how unfairly White American businessmen have been treated recently. China has suffered all kinds of unfairness at White hands, such as during the hundred years of national humiliation through which most of its population lived in dire poverty. One of the best things that has happened in my lifetime is the lifting of many millions of Chinese out of poverty, and they did it largely the way that White America said they should, through capitalist reforms. Spitefully sabotaging China's economy now is not an appropriate trade strategy for the US. It is cowardly, self-defeating, and bad for the world. All countries have unfairnesses in their trade relations, and, indeed, there is lots of unfairness in many exchanges generally. Deal with it like adults, at the negotiating table, seeking mutually beneficial resolutions of trade disputes.
86
@Joe PRC China is a totalitarian ethnonationalist state that is currently interning 1 million+ Uyghurs in concentration camps. The idea that China and its neo-mercantilist policies must be accommodated on the World stage because their former Qing leaders were corrupt and reactionary and allowed colonialist exploitation to occur is ludicrous and truly cowardly. The US must contain the rise of China if we wish to promote and preserve the values America was built on and trade policy is absolutely an appropriate venue to pursue this goal.
103
@John You mention the Uyghurs of China, but fail to mention the treatment in the USA of the native Indian and the Afro-American peoples.
8
@Declan Foley
Nor the aborigines of Australia. etc etc.
BTW the British had slaves too until the mid-1700's, American until the mid-1800's. But stuff happening right now is more relevant to the discussion.
15
guess what.
trump was right- china needs a trade agreement more than we do, and he just might get them to make concessions after all.
his playbook seems to be correct after all- make a large opening bid, make threats, dont blink, and wait for the other side to counter-offer, and make a deal somewhere in the middle.
basically, how any good businessman operates. the comparison to that bumbling, feeble, feckless obama, getting smacked around by everyone he negotiated with, makes me wince. the mullahs made mincemeat out of him.
trump is right, obama, and most american pol's, dont know how to make economic/biz deals with other countries.
7
@Ari Weitzner
Counting your chickens before they hatch much?
China still has aces up its sleeves, and Trump's style means that for China to strike a deal means humiliation, a public loss of face.
You could be right, or China could print a lot of new yuan and pump them into the economy subsidizing exports even as it drives down the value of its currency making its products cheaper in world markets.
Except for a fifty year hiatus, China has been doing capitalism for thousands of years. They're actually pretty good at it.
Nothing is more dangerous than to under estimate your enemy, or your trading partner.
7
@Ari Weitzner
You might be right, but if I had to guess I'd bet you held that position years ago and are eager to confirm your priors. Trump's aggressiveness might be a strength when dealing with China, but his impulsiveness, and vulnerability to flattery and corruption are major weaknesses. Its still early before we can draw any conclusions. Respectfully, I think we still need to wait and see.
2
@Ari Weitzner If Trump were truly a smart man, he'd play his "no blink" trade war card, but do it without the jabs and bravado that will make the world hate our bully tactics and gleeful if and when the U.S. economy hits the skids.
3
Authoritarian regimes and dictatorships, especially when marked by widespread corruption and graft, as Xi's regime is, are anathema to long-term economic success. Always has been, always will be.
Meanwhile, China has shown itself time and again to be at war with us, given the rampant web-based attacks on both our private and public sectors. The consequence for China should be that we totally cauterize our economy from potential further attacks.
So, no more web traffic to/from China. Even better, we form an explicit alliance with other countries who commit to ensuring internet use from within their own countries abides by international law. Any countries not truly and demonstrably committed to this, like China, would be cut off from the global web.
And, no more importation of any Chinese-made electronics or software, since these have increasingly become tools for the Chinese government to implant and exploit snooping devices, back doors, malware, etc.
Yeah, this might sound harsh. But, China is effectively at war with us. We will be destroyed if we do not choose to become resolute and take a firm stand.
Maybe once Xi and his regime begin to feel real consequences for their actions, they will choose for China to become a lawful global citizen. If not, so be it -- as a consequence of their actions, China should be isolated, and their economy can swirl into the toilet.
14
@fact or friction,w do the same to China and other countries. Edward Snowden has
told Chinese and Russian everything they
need to know. You have either short memory or none at all. Many of our telecom
companies provided troves of data to
NAS. This agency also hacked the phone
of Angela Merkel ,leader of Germany and Dilma Rouseff,ex president of Brazil. The
reason for hacking Rouseff was to snoop
information on oil drilling bids that Petrobras, Brazilian oil giant, was seeking
for drilling contracts. We do it too. Your
assumption of innocence is based on
lack of information.
3
Hubris is the word that best describes your thinking.
You think it's still post-WWII. Further, you also seem to think that the United States doesn't engage in all the behaviors you mentioned, and worse. It's like, "The Chinese don't respect human or property rights!" But mention Abu Grab—not a word; it's ok; indeed, the current CIA director directed torture on America's behalf. It's ok when we bully, manipulate, steal, and torture; but if China does it, well, they're inhuman.
Well, bump that! America has had well over 200 years to climb the Mountain of Democracy. I guess its peak is just too high.
1
So a worker at a Chinese plastics factory makes $435 a month base pay (which working overtime can bring to a whopping $870 -- woo hoo). Yet the toys and other items made with those plastics are sold to us here in the US for the same relative prices as when they were made by US workers earning a living wage. That's how massive inequality -- i.e. six people named Walton holding more wealth than the bottom FORTY-TWO PERCENT of Americans -- happens. Why are we so foolish as to enable this?
If in many cases we can no longer "Buy American," why don't we re-use, repair, repurpose, and share? Nothing will get better in America until we stop funneling our money to people like the Waltons and the Kochs.
186
Because overconsumption is a part of capitalism. It has its roots in the machinery of capitalism so that it production can always expand and grow in general. It has deeply shaped our culture. Every effort from marketing and advertising is to unveil the hidden desires inside us and leads to spending on both necessities and things beyond them. If there isn’t a demand, make a demand.
14
@Frank F Actually, in real dollars the cost of toys and electronics have been going down due to China and other Asia producers. If these things were made in the US, they'd cost twice (if not more) as much and we'd buy many fewer. Just like in the good old says of the 1960s and 1970s when people had ONE TV and ONE phone and ONE car. Only the rich could afford more. It's a trade off. Most people get more stuff; some people lose work. So to most people it's all to the best.
12
@Frank F Here an example: I needed a new pair of shoes, and wanted to buy "Made in the USA". That was either readily possible at the high end ($400 and up), or seemingly impossible in the $150-$200 range (I found some eventually, but it took some searching). Now, it was and is possible to, for example, make sneakers here in the US that would retail for about $100 (New Balance used to manufacture at least some of theirs here, at least some years ago), but it's downright difficult now to find sneakers still made here. I really believe that this is also due to the buyers at major retailers such as Walmart, Target and others, not even trying anymore to source such items from US manufacturers. My main beef, however, is with companies like Apple. How can it be that Apple cannot make their flagship smartphones that cost over $ 1,200 (iPhone XS and related) here in the US? I believe the answer is frustratingly simple: they don't want to, and thus don't bother trying.
25
Is Trump so ignorant that he will admit, "China’s economy, if it’s in trouble, it’s only in trouble because of me,”, unable to realize what China's slumping economy would mean to the rest of the world, especially the United States? I hope, should we go into a major recession, the Democrats are smart enough to run ads with this foolish quote by Trump. He may have some inkling regarding microeconomics, but he sure has no knowledge of macroeconomics.
61
@Len Probert So why are we so reliant on China to begin with, instead of our own localized industry? Explain that one to me, and why you seem to think that it's a good thing.
10
@Emfourty Gasmask The reason many countries are reliant on China, is because of greed. Cheap labour means more profit, for the seller, and the rush to China was aided and abetted by politicians.
5
Donald is like the scorpion crossing the river on the back of a frog. It is in his nature to strike out, even if it hurts him and others. But if takes a recession in China and the US to remove him in 2020, so be it.
8
Nonsense.
For most of the past 2200 years China has been a socioeconomic political educational demographic diplomatic military scientific and technological superpower.
Xi Jinping is the first Chinese leader since Mao Zedong whose thoughts are deemed worthy of study. Xi Jinping is the first Chinese core leader since Deng Xiaoping. Xi Jinping is the first Chinese leader since Puyi to rule with the Mandate of Heaven.
China has 20% of the human race. And while China has the nominal #2 economy on a per capita basis it ranks near Bulgaria and the Dominican Republic. And the 300 million Chinese who moved into the middle class is the biggest cohort ever. But China is and aging and shrinking nation with a massive male gender imbalance. And China has 4x as many people as America living on the same land area. China has very few entangling alliances or allies.
A slowing Chinese economy is not good for America. China is a still rising dragon. While America is no longer a soaring eagle.
1
@Blackmamba
Which is why they will make concessions that will help us but will not hurt them to the extent that their economy will be destroyed.
Admit Trump is not a idiot as most liberals think he is or that he is evil.
2
Why a Trade War With China Isn’t ‘Easy to Win’ (Slightly Wonkish) Paul Krugman May 22, 2018
To which I posted
Is a trade war with China easy to win?
Yes because the Chinese position is much weaker than realized. Real unemployment is larger than reported officially. Chinese cities are filled with millions of rural migrants from the country side, without a hokuo (a permit required to live in the city that allows access to schools and social services). Largely unskilled, they see there jobs disappearing.
Ethiopia is the new place for the factories of China. 741 acres are covered in Hawassa by mostly Chinese factories. Salaries in the Chinese owned textile plant shown are 30 Euros ($ 35) per month , 1/20 of those of China as the Chinese owner explains. That is 1/20 !!
What the proud Chinese owner does NOT explain is that he laid off his textile workers in China when he moving the factory to Ethiopia.
It is a race to the bottom. Stagnant wages by outsourcing production to those willing to work for least, has reached China.
Economists such as Krugman who promoted globalization (In Praise of Cheap Labor) failed to see that political unrest (e.g. Brexit, Trump ) follows.
It does, and that is becoming a headache for the Chinese leadership, who is well aware of it.
China can ill afford a trade war with the US, that would further accelerate that development
31
@Woof
Correct on all acounts
4
If you think a communist government worries about their citizen jobs more than their party power, you are mistaken. Trump wants a glorious and victorious image of Trump beating down on China for his ego but that leaves no room for the Chinese leadership to appear strong domestically. Xi's political career is he appears to giving in to Trump.
The real Arts of the Deals is to understand your opponents. Trump doesn't.
3
@Lancedal
Yes nothing is more important to the Chinese than "face," being respected in public.
It may be that congressional Republicans can be humiliated into following Trump, but the Chinese will not be.
The Chinese are far more subtle than Americans, especially Trump, and look for subtle solutions that leave everyone with their respect. Trump's my-way-or,the-highway approach is not likely to succeed.
1
No surprise. I've been watching this slow-motion train wreck for 40 years.
How long does it take for merchants to sail other seas to avoid a pirate, or in this case, a pirate nation? That summarizes Chinese foreign policy. On the domestic front ...
The Chinese have known they were a weak position since the late 1980s. You can't ask individuals to step up and be creative only to see it taken over by the crooks in the politburo. This is proof of the failure of the communist party's goal of keeping control of the politics while skimming the cream off the top --- of their people and companies forced to build factories in China.
2
From time to time we see reports of the Communist Party upper level members and government officials being caught either moving personal and corporate assets out of China.
Some to safe havens in Bermuda and Switzerland. Other for reckless gambling in Macau's casinos. The government is sponsoring nation building in 3rd world countries but keeping the assets if those poor countries don't pay back their loans.
I suspect if more of this behavior increases Chairman Mao's may face a bigger challenge than what happened at Tinnamen Square 25 years ago.
2
The trade deficit between the U.S and China in 2017 was $336 billion. China has a $12.24 trillion GDP.
If things are slowing down, the ridiculous Trump/Navaro tariff war is not the issue and it does not bode well globally for 2019. US consumers have more debt now than in 2008 and US companies have record debt, (such as ATT with their $156 billion in loans), so the end of this bubble is near. That's the issue we face going forward. Not looking forward to the way the GOP will respond with more of their ignoramus ideas about economics and safety nets for the unemployed.
3
As always with the NYT projections China's economy is about to collapse - any day now - really - for the last 25 years. But wishing for something does not make it so. China's growth rate is down but it's still growing at about 6.5% a year based on shaky economic data but guess what? Almost every country's economic data is questionable if you look closely. That's the dirty secret any honest economist or anyone who has been engaged in the nitty-gritty of a trade negotiation that involves examining both sides trade data that is almost always wildly inconsistent can tell you. But yes let's just talk about China's data issues... Furthermore, sure China is due for a correction; you can't have 40 plus years of nothing but rainbows when it comes to your economy. But if a correction comes the Chinese will be in far better shape to weather the storm than the US who already used their spare tire in 2008. Ups and downs are part of the economic cycle no big deal. If it comes China will slog through it even if it's as bad as what hit the US in 2008 which it likely won't be China is not going anywhere. It will keep chugging along. And BTW is there a rule at the NYT that no flattering or even not repellant photos of China can be published? Those grimy ancient factories you highlight in your photos certainly look awful. Good work NYT photo editor. The bad China narrative continues in the paper that decries "propaganda."
12
@Belasco
"As always with the NYT projections China's economy is about to collapse - any day now -"
This article predicts no such thing.
5
Sure, now even China is blaming Canada. Just because we are a country of laws, sort of like the US used to be.
SAD!
2
A state directed capitalistic economy is basically an historical experiment. We’ve seen some impressive short-term results, but the experiment ain’t over and there are fires breaking out in the laboratories. Who knows if the Chinese model will ultimately be the paradigm for national governance moving forward. I’d bet against it.
4
I own a business that sells to retail establishments in every state in the union.We have experienced an average growth rate of 7% since 2011.This year,for the first time in 10 years, we are experiencing a sales downturn.This country is headed for recession.In Europe the political turmoil is also leading to a consumer pullback because of an uncertain financial picture.Chinas economic woes have nothing to do with Trump and his ill informed antics which will only worsen the problem both here and abroad.China uses debt to try and stimulate the economy just as the Republicans passed a deficit busting 1 1/2 Trillion dollar tax bill to do the same thing.Migrants are streaming out of a drought stricken Africa and parts of the Middle East.If there was ever a time when global leaders had to work together,it is now.Expecting the isolationist fool Trump to help this situation is like asking a 10 year old to fly a passenger jet.A crash seems more likely every day.
52
Excellent reporting with the stories of real people as well as data. Articles like this, not the ones quoting unnamed officials or some experts from Goldman Sachs, gives us the clear picture of what's really happening.
The housing and auto market is slowing in the US too. The only difference is that the US has deferred the downturn by an extra year with the tax cut that created $2 trillion debt in addition to trillions created to get us out of 2008 crisis. So, what we see in China could be what we have coming in the US next year. Unless the trade war is ended while the US is ahead and still don't feel the pinch as much, that is.
5
There are a lot of factors that behind this, but one at the heart of it is the fact that China is still a totalitarian big brother nation. It has tried to have its cake and eat it too, in terms of embracing capitalism while operating under a Communist regime.
The reason why countries like Russia and China will always be hindered in growth especially in technology is because trade partners can't trust doing business in these countries. From government installed malware to random kidnapping of anyone who voices dissent it's pretty hard to do business there.
The British intelligence services has pulled hardware made by Chinese telecom providers and urged the rest of the UK government to follow suit. Same with the FBI and CIA. Chinese employees of American companies operating in China have been "disappeared".
We can talk about the trade war but that isn't the real cause of the systemic and structural problems of the Chinese economy.
9
@Don
Yes. Unfortunately, the Party of Trump is undermining the Constitution everyday, so that they can make the USA into a capitalist country without democracy, just like Russia and China.
3
Maybe China will learn fair trade
8
It seems obvious that Trump's China strategy is working.
8
@MCH, no it doesn't. There are many factors in addition to the trade war that are causing the slowdown. Also it is not necessarily good for the U.S. that this is happening. Only a fool fails to see that the economic prosperity of one country does not depend on the failing of a competitor. Global economics is not a zero-sum game.
6
Have you opened your 401K statement?
2
@MCH If you consider shooting a harpoon into a rubber raft on high seas. Yeah it's working out great.
2
Time to get a good "win-win" deal with China .... but our "deal maker in chief" knows not how to negotiate. Trump is more interested in TV sound bites instead of making boring but great progress.
3
China is a paper tiger after all. We are overreacted. This is may be the beginning of the end Xi Jinping Dynasty. Western countries miscalculated China's potential. What are Xi going to do with his Belt and Road initiative? Trump is winning his trade war with China.
9
@Mclean4
Lol. China's economic growth is still double the U.S. growth. Meanwhile they are worried about the downtown and Trump is claiming huge gains.
China is only keeping its currency high to make nice with America. They can print a few extra trillion yuan, pump it into the economy to subsidize industries, create jobs and push down the value of their currency, making their goods more competitive in global markets.
On top of that, ALL of the heavy metals that are necessary to build computers and phones are processed in China. Global corporations have made us so dependent on Chinese goods that they could severely undermine our entire economy, starting with tech.
Meanwhile Trump is is trying to embarrass China into capitulation. That is the least likely way to win negotiations with China. They will sacrifice the world economy if necessary to "save face."
1
I wonder what is the mentality behind the sanction measures? Sanctions against state always add burden to the people, rather than the government. Russia, Iran, China, what is the meaning?
1
@Charles Eden
It's just showboating for the Party of Trump base. They have no knowledge of subtlety. The believe in common sense, which is often wrong (the world is not flat and the sun doesn't "rise") and simple obvious solutions, which more often than not mean being penny wise and pound foolish.
They think a wall will keep out immigrants but most immigrants come through the gate. Ask the French how their Maginot line did against Hitler's Blitzkrieg. The Great Wall did not keep out the Mongolians.
1
Beginning to appear like the 20th century, everything was booming in to the roaring 20's.
1
The ripple effects of a slowing economy are very significant for China. For years it's been evident that China needed to switch gears away from export driven activities and government spending on infrastructure towards a more sustainable, consumer-driven economy. There had been signs that was occurring. But these moves will negatively impact that shift in a significant way.
China has no safety net for unemployment. Not from the government. No charities, foundations or consumer based organizations. No grass roots activities for support. People must save to support themselves and their family members through hard times. No one else will help. Economic uncertainty dampens the underlying consumer confidence necessary for a migration to a consumer-driven economy, creating a negative feedback loop, dampening the economy further. Creating more uncertainty. More hunkering down.
The China government fears unemployment more than anything else. It is the primary risk to the regime. Expect them to respond with more authoritarianism. More government controls over its citizens and the economy. Which is even more counterproductive.
It's counterintuitive to Chinese leaders, but there best way forward is to liberalize. Reduce controls. Empower its citizens. Is this leadership group capable of such things? It does not appear to be so.
54
There's ignorance; and then, there is unbridled ignorance: the wishful thinking of the slumped over.
4
@Anthony Adverse
Exactly!!!
The Chinese are incredibly patient and have the 3rd highest savings rate in the world. Moreover, the CCP is adept at creating jobs if in the long run employment becomes an issue.
It's precisely because China's economy has become more consumer driven that the slump in car sales and the cutting of jobs makes sense in the short term.
Prevention is wise when China is unsure how Trump will end this trade war. China doesn't blame Xi - they blame Trump.
Two more years is not a long time for a nation with dynasties lasting centuries. They know how to wait it out.
3
Not surprised by this slowdown. Buyers in the US have been ordering and hoarding items that they knew to be affected by the tariffs, so no or fewer new orders will be forthcoming until that inventory has cleared. At the same time, China's economy suffers from a similar malaise that ours does as well, except their numbers are bigger: a large number of people who have been left behind by its economic expansion. In addition to typical cycles for businesses such as car sales, buying a car or, even harder, a house or apartment, is only for people with enough disposable income, and most of them already own one or more, so now what? Our economy here in the US is currently still on its sugar high from the enormous deficit spending A.K.A the multi-trillion dollar tax cut entirely financed by new debt. The come-down from that sugar high here in the US is already starting. As for China's problems, that country hasn't really invested much in key services to its people, such as health care. I am still amazed that a self-proclaimed communist country does not provide health insurance to all its citizens. Health care and related businesses are key industries in most so-called advanced economies, and is woefully underdeveloped in China. That could be an area worth investing in.
9
The tariffs should have never gone past the first round. Normal diplomacy would have said "Ok, you've got my attention. Let's talk."
But tariffs have escalated and positions have hardened. The problem is that the US doesn't have real diplomats and negotiators.
5
Interesting story.
Recall that pundits kept telling the people that China was not easily affected by tariffs and other sanctions.
14
The journalist only scratched the surface. There are many ways the Chinese government can “stimulate “ the housing market and car sales by just loosening up their control on the market. Currently market is under strict quota or control. Residents can buy only one property per person to prevent further over heating the housing market. To buy a car, one needs to enter a lottery and often has to wait for months or a year to get the chance to buy. This measure is to reduce congestion and pollution. It would be easy for the Chinese government to remove these measures, however that will be short sighted.
Another factor is the savings a Chinese family has. It is in chinese DNA to be frugal and to save for future, and to believe education and hard work is the only way to prosperity. There is little personal bankruptcies. If the children fail, parents will lend a hand, and vice versa. Therefore the savings and the family value will help the Chinese to go through a tough time should there be one
12
@Ren
As if this were the point.
However from the government end, it should not always reply on the social and cultural heritage do keep its economy thrive in a sustainable way.
@Ren
You may be right about the housing market and car sales, but I fail to see how the frugality of the Chinese will help save the markets. The saved up means will be spent on the bare necessities, not the kind of spending that will boost the economy. Their savings may help families survive that otherwise would not but businesses not dealing in necessities face a hard time.
2
Trump's like the rooster that takes credit for the sun coming up. Read "China's Great Wall of Debt" and see how this has been coming for some time. A few tariffs with one customer -- albeit a very large one -- isn't the cause of China's economic problems.
14
@Jim Trump wasn't the focus of this article.
16
According to this article Trump actually took credit for slowing down the Chinese economy (on Fox)! Kind of like a pyromaniac claiming credit for a wildfire that’s spreading across the world...
2
@Gershom Maes Sorry, Gershom -- where do you get that? Certainly not from reading the article.
It seems like economic warfare is an effective tool. There used to be a time before Nixon's sale of wheat and other grains to Russia that both China and the former U.S.S.R were agrarian backwaters.
Now they both spy on us using sophisticated computer technology and human spies in this country. We perhaps should consider just letting them feel some more economic pain. It will probably reduce our GNP some what but these guys are not our friends and never have been.
Trump would sell his soul to plant hotels and casinos in both countries but that's another story and he's out of souls and running short on time as well.
13
Trump is breaking China's economy by importing inflation and pollution to the USA. Hard to see how this ends well for either China or the USA.
5
I would advise against mirror-imaging China with the United States. China proves you can graft a little capitalism onto any type of government. That doesn't mean as a Nation they will respond to global market pressures, or economic warfare like the United States would. The big misconception here was that China would ultimately become "more like us" if there was more capitalism in its economy. May be true, but haven't seen it.
22
@Ghost Dansing
Yes, this article and nearly all the comments predicting the demise of China is based on "western thinking."
I don't think anyone but Chinese people in China can tell us what to expect or what it means.
1
No wonder China views us with such contempt. When we rely on their economy to maintain our economy. The fact that the stock market can even worry about another country's economy to bolster ours demonstrates how dependent on that country we are. We've outsourced our vitality along with our production to another country and we are no longer the leader of the free world. We may be co-leader but not the leader.
3
It matters less what the statistics say or don't. Its not strictly a consumer-based economy like the US tends to be. It doesn't need full employment. It is a command-and-control economy. They have trillions of dollars surplus in their treasury that the Government is using to fund colossal projects; like rail links all the way to Europe, building artificial islands, rapid development of solar, high tech, AI, quantum computing, matching and outpacing the West.
7
@D.S.Barclay "It doesn't need full employment."
This is the magical thinking of government officials explaining away an economic collapse and having no solutions.
I worry more about our own upcoming recession in 2020, predicted by most economists. Wall Street forecasters also have a dim view on stock markets in 2020. China still has 6.5% GDP growth rate. I would love to have that kind of growth. Besides Chinese tend to be more frugal and spend their saving only on housing. Most of the people, not like here, don't buy stocks and bonds. Stock market gyration doesn't affect average people much at all. I think the author doesn't understand the Chinese culture & life style, and also under estimate the resilience of Chinese people.
1
@Usok Recessions are a byproduct of unsubstainable growth. It can happen anytime and severity can be short or long. Bush 43 could have lessened the crisis of 2008 but chose to hand it off to Obama thinking he wouldn't be blamed.
If he had shown some backbone and courage he could have lessened the economic shock but Bush 41 said: "Wouldn't be prudent and you didn't really do your homework to earn that M.B.A."
Each recession is different as the world is ever changing, however I really don't think Trump or Pence have the intellectual capacity to deal with the one that is coming. Nor does Mrs. Clinton. But Bill for all his barnacles would be my choice to pull the right levers.
3
@Usok
The 2020 recession will come just in time for the democrats to have to step in and once again fix the shambles. And then, when 6 years of struggles are followed by 2 years of moderate growth it is once again the time for cocky Republicans to take over the White house agaim and start making another mess. Rince and repeat.
1
There was an interesting study done where an economist estimated China’s real growth rate by analyzing the country’s light at night, as seen from space.
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/new-study-shines-light-literally-on-chinas-and-russias-fake-gdp-data/
It could be that a China’s economic strength was not really there at all.... and now with their debt bomb, their economy is crumbling.
12
It's amazing how articles like this predict a Chinese apocalypse at 6% growth when the US would be ecstatic to get 3%
74
@Robert
That’s 6% growth using the old Soviet economic reporting scale that China uses.
28
@Robert
Its a question of comparing 'expectations', 'trends' and 'budgets' versus reality. If you were spending based on 8% and if your constituency was expecting the benefits of 8%, then 6% is a major problem. But if your track record is 1.5%, then 3% is reason to be ecstatic about.
7
@Robert I don't believe you can compare GDP growth percentages between developed and developing countries. India routinely averages 7-8% growth and that is often seen as a bare minimum. Any lower than 7% growth and India would be unable to employ the 100,000s of fresh school graduates each month leading to serious unemployment issues. That clearly doesn't apply in the US because our rate of growth of population does not require a 7% minimum growth to keep us employed. In the US >3% growth is a surefire recipe for inflation; in developing countries < 6% growth is a sure fire recipe for massive unemployment and huge social unrest.
20
I don’t believe the slowdown in China’s economy has to do with the tariffs, the US economy has been on steroids for the past two years and China has exported plenty of goods to North America.
I believe that for many years data on the Chinese economy has been inflated by the government and the amount of debts in China has reached uncontrollable levels.
Internal investments is probably the main reason for a slowdown, not the tariffs that will have an impact but not until next year .
4
Chinese consumers are hunkering down and hoarding cabbage. If only those dictator’s subjects they had a say in running their own affairs. . .
2
Trump breaks China.
6
@JQGALT And his third wife brings out the paper plates and the plastic knives and sporks.
1
@JQGALT: As this article clearly stated, China's decline started before Trump's tariffs. Furthermore, a decline in the world's second largest economy, China, will have negative consequences here, too. Tariff's only raise the cost of foreign goods for American consumers; they're not paid by the producers. Auto sales and the housing market are declining here, and when the sugar high created by Trump's tax cut/deficit hike wear off, we'll start seeing inflation and layoffs. Get ready for Trump's recession. It's right around the corner.
That is the curse China has brought to herself for abusing millions of Innocent Uyghurs at the largest and shameful internment camps with Chinese characteristics in the 21st century....
Millions of Han Chinese can go home and spend their Lunar New Year Party with their family members even if they lose their jobs?
How about Millions of Innocent Uyghurs at the China's criminal Gulag? They are being abused on a daily basis even at this very moment, and untimely deaths are occurring at those heinous camps due to extreme tortures imposed by psychopath Chinese Police...
China will face the outrage and condemnation of the world community one day for this unforgivable crime.....For now, the conscience of the world was bought and deceived by Chinese money....
23
Recession is God's way of showing us that what we're doing is not sustainable. China can't keep growing, and they can't keep themselves out of recession unless they keep growing.
The same can be said of the USA. Constant growth is not in the cards. Unless we can design a better way, we'll need to prepare for the inevitable resource wars.
5
@mlbex So true, this constant growth mentality has turned Americans into a nation of hoarders. I have friends who's homes have become warehouses of stuff they buy on Amazon and similar sites. One couple I know, now have a television in the bathroom. It's insane.
1
The problem in discussing China's or any economy is that we don't agree on what a good economy is and many forces don't want us discussing that issue. In America, the Federal Reserve considers wage inflation of over 2% a year to be negative even though real wages have fallen significantly over the last 40 years. China which still has far too many workers, 1.4 billion people, has ended the One Child Policy and is almost encouraging people to have 2 or 3 children. They see a labor shortage pushing hourly wages over the current level which is one tenth that in the USA. At the same time we read articles like this where workers getting paid $2 per hours are being furloughed for 3 months for lack of work. In my perfect society, there are very few maids because only a small elite should be able to afford them. Most people clean their own toilets, vacuums their own floors and raise their own children. Other people believe that 15% of the population should have private child care and servants to take care of them. What we need is a discussion of what our utopian society looks like. Otherwise it is hard to work toward a goal.
6
And yet in October we recorded the largest monthly trade deficit ever with China... and imported a record amount from the world overall...
I suspect China will blame their economic performance on tariffs to deflect blame from China's own leadership. That's good for Trump except that because China knows the US keeps buying, they have no incentive to make a deal with the US, but rather have incentive to keep harping on nationalistic themes and will harden their position.
4
This article fails to mention the off-the-charts national debt of our country. We struggle just to pay the interest. Nevertheless our donor-indentured congress passed a tax cut for the rich last year.
This article seems off to me. China will be fine. Their debt is minimal compared to ours. But if we don't start getting fairer taxes (raise taxes and call out tax havens,) many Americans will be going without healthcare and a decent education.
33
What makes you so sure? Pick up a copy of China's Great Wall of Debt by Dinny McMahon and you may change your views.
8
@betty durso. China has a total debt 300% of GDP. Most of their debt are corporate and also local government debt.
8
@Jonathan
The statistic I read was 44% of GDP.
4
Competing on a level playing field is going to an entirely different experience for China.
15
@Conservative Democrat: Different from what? The economic glory days Americans remember all took place back when China was struggling through incredible trauma to build a modern industrial economy -- in those days we were the powerhouse of the world, maybe partly because of our resourcefulness, but largely due to historical contingency. What some people see now as the problems of globalism, are nothing but the early outlines of a genuine level playing field -- something we can battle against, or try to get used to...
12
@John Bergstrom
“The economic glory days Americans remember all took place back when China was struggling through incredible trauma to build a modern industrial economy...”
Actually, China made killing 40 million of its own people seem quite effortless during the Great Leap Forward. No struggle at all for the Chinese Communists.
4
This could be the 'big one', like the earthquakes are reckoned. With most of the major economies linked tightly through trade and financial conduits, and most of them also awash in debt, particularly dollar denominated debt, a few missteps here could precipitate a global depression. A rolling recession for China probably wouldn't be all that bad, but pumping up the economy with more debt financed construction may simply move the let down out a year while widening the potential chasm. Getting the trade situation back on track would be a big step towards avoiding trouble, but sounder financing by using less debt everywhere in the system, would be the best long term measure, it would seem.
2
China is finding it hard to grow the economy on the assumption that real estate prices will double every 3 years. They learned nothing from Japan or our own housing bubble. Now that real estate prices in China rival that of the US and Western Europe, they are finally hitting a wall. You can't keep increasing housing prices without becoming completely noncompetitive on wages and costs. When Beijing's home prices are higher than Manhattan, something has to give.
70
@Jonathan: Link real estate prices to wages and competitiveness? Blasphemy I tell you!
If that connection were valid, the USA's inflation statistics would include the price of real estate, which they don't. Otherwise the 'low inflation' reported over the past few years would be a lot higher, since housing is most households' biggest expense.
3
@mlbex
Thank you. I thought he was off base with his comment.
The "trade deal" is a bit of a fig leaf.
The crux is with the currency manipulations, cybercrimes and IP theft. Or, in the big picture, China's decades old strategy to play its game on a tilted playing field.
Time to level China.
4
Our economy is slowing down. Estimates for next year are coming in at around 2.5% growth, which is where they have been through most of the last ten years. If China slows down substantially, and we slow down at the same time, then our economy will fall into recession.
China is an adversary, but also a partner. If they go down, we go down with them. Trump's tariffs are not tanking their economy. But if he delights in thinking so, then let's see how he delights in watching our GDP go negative. We are all linked together. There is only one global economy.
123
@Bruce Rozenblit
Yep.
1
@Bruce Rozenblit
If we taken 20% pain as collateral damage for bringing China to account for the litany of their wrongdoings (IP, cheating, etc.), so be it.
Atl east the stealth mode in which China using deceptive means was creeping up on us economically is over.
You can certainly hate Trump, but thank him for this. Imagine what would have happened if status-quo (HRC) was President? It would have been too late.
Remember folks, status-quo is not healthy in the long run.
7
@Bruce Rozenblit
Except that when you are sending $500 billion of wealth to other countries each year ($350 billion to China), it is not sustainable.
With a multiplier of 1.7, that is a drag of $850 billion in the US economy, or 4% of GDP.
Free trade is predicated in the theory of comparative advantage, where balances even out over time. When you have huge mercantilist economies such as China and Japan, running consistent deficits is a recipe for disaster. Instead of clinging to the dogma of “free” trade, we need to face up to reality.
7
China's rise to relative prosperity is integrated into the entire world macro economy. DJT apparently fails to see this. If China sinks the entire world will feel it.
8
@badman. Sometimes a little bit of short term pain is necessary to have long term benefits. A China crash would also lower some of the exorbitant housing prices in NYC and the West Coast. To some, this is a bad thing. To others (e.g., most Americans) this is actually a good thing and gives us long term vitality.
Can we stop the blatant partisanship in every comment?
60
@Jonathan Funny, most people WANT their real estate to appreciate in value. Although, it's true that what they really want is EVERYONE ELSE'S real estate to lose value while their's appreciates. This is called "magical thinking".
Real estate increase in value because people WANT to live somewhere. So high real estate costs are normally a sign of a vital and growing economy (NYC, CA, MA, VA).
3
@OneView. Or it's a sign of massive speculation and money laundering from overseas foreign investment. Look at Australia's real estate right now, it's dropping off a cliff as China's capital controls tighten and wealthy Chinese start covering margins and collateral. NYC's housing market especially on the luxury end is already softening.
6