Are You Ready for the Financial Crisis of 2019?

I am going to need an old priest for their wisdom and a young priest for their strength. We need a Volcker and Powell press conference. It works in the simulation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CIGb1Ti06k

“You know who has racked up even more debt than hopeful 20-something ceramics-studies grads in the United States?” As an art school graduate with a respectable job, I’m cancelling my subscription. Grow up.

Alex Willians writes on Are you ready for the financial crisis of 2019 that there is a possibility of an Italexit. I am afraid there is none, or in terms of probabilities it is below 0.1%. The reason is simple, article 50 (xxexit) requires member states to abide to their constitutional rules to invoke. The Italian European membership is considered part of the Italian constitution. In order to change the constitution you need a super majority of 2/3 of congress. And BTW having a referendum is also impossible, as it is not considered valid unless we first change the constitution. It is highly unlikely that 2/3 of the Italian parliament would vote for a constitutional change. And if they did, then there is the senate. Good luck. Sorry, but it is not imminent to say the least.

Duh! Did anybody believe that a 4 time bankrupt, with a 1960s bachelor’s degree, and a 6th grade vocabulary having President could successfully lead the country or understand the complexities of a modern global economy? If you did—you were wrong! He rode Obama’s coattails for 2017 and was delusional enough to believe it was all because he started sleeping and tweeting in the White House and promised deregulation and overturning all of Obama era policies. One year later the scam is falling apart. The reality is he and his fellow republicans are terrible at managing the economy and we were doomed once they won control of the house, senate and presidency. There is no where to hide our money outside of secure real estate rental properties. A global trade war, coupled with a risky foolhardy tax cut that explodes the deficit and an incompetent president is a recipe for economic disaster. Mr . Bankruptcy and Chief’s definition of winnng is different from mine...maybe he was using a Russian dictionary or Pictionary?

Without Billionaires, where would we be? Who would buy the yachts with the sundries? Who would have the money to waste on stuff nobody needs? Give me a Thousandaire with time on his hands and no interest in giving back to those he grifted and I'll give you the next President.

61% cash/ultra short bond - 39% US big cap dividend stock. Put about 100K in stock 30 days ago. Kicking myself now. Was 80/20 but at age 63 figured won’t need that 39% for awhile. Look at the Dow for the past 70 years. See the anamolous 3 huge spikes in 2,000; 2007; and 2018, recognizing we’re in spike 3 and hold on cause it’s going down down down. Don’t sell in a panic now. Let it all drop. Buying opportunity! Get in near-ish the bottom and ride the tiger up.

But everyone said trump is a businessman. The bait and switch is coming full circle he, his family and friends will be well off. Those who voted for him will suffer.

Well...at least we’re not panicking over a specie shortage.

The one thing that wasn't mentioned in this article but will have an impact on the financial markets in 2019 is Brexit. The Brits seem to be on a course where they will crash-out of the EU. The UK has a much bigger economy than Italy. An Italexit would not be as bad as the upcoming Brexit! Hold on to your hats folks!

This downfall & downgrading looks very much evident in 2019 considering the buy-back of shares by big companies. There is no other option except suffering in a wide range, together.

If a hard recession is what it takes to get rid of Trump, then bring it on.

The hangover has just started. Out of control money printing from 2009-2017 and then over-the-top tax cuts fueled it. Folks, money printing and quantitative easing that Krugman so loves should have stopped in 2010/ 2011 once the immediate crisis was behind us. What happened since created "un-earned wealth inequality" that caused discontent and led to Trump. 0.01%ers can all bask in stock and real estate portfolios, but most was not earned with hard-work. Look at central bank balance sheets. Bernanke bought it all with money printed out of thin air. Then Trump goosed it even more with his insane and unfair tax-cuts. We have had one-too-many drinks. Time to sober up!

zit is odd that this article is in the Style section, but maybe that's a good place to put it. It seems like Americans never remember what happened in the last recession, that low interest debt, ultimately ends up higher interest debt. And at some point the check comes due. I've saved money, not spent money, people ask me why I am still using a TV that is 8 years old, because it's paid for, I always tell them. Like my 5 year old car, why do I still have it, because it's paid for. We should be conditioning ourselves to save money, not spend money on things we don't need, or want. What happens is, you start getting up and going to work not to get ahead, but to keep the creditors from banging on the door, or taking you jet ski, while you are laying on the beach.

The author perpetuates the fallacy that $17 BB in new wealth was “created” this decade. If it was “created” where is it? Much of this “wealth” is in retirement acounts, and many of the owners of those accounts are not retired, and so not withdrawing from the accounts. I have watched my account “grow” all the while knowing that the numbers on my computer screen meant nothing - until the day when I begin withdrawing, at which point my account may be worth considerably less. The author also neglects to factor in that any stock appreciation is subject to tax - whether long or short term capital gain. But calling a speculative, casino-like operation such as the stock market a “wealth creator” is a simplistic, superficial, phony distortion. This “wealth creator” is also a destroyer of wealth, and its paper gains can turn into paper losses overnight. The market’s gains only matter if owners are selling at a profit. Otherwise, what you see on your screen is as ephemeral as spring snow.

If the European Union came apart dividing the easy money, low tariff, agricultural South (Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal) vs. the hard money, high tariff, industrial North (Germany, France, etc.), .... Europe needs two Euros (Euro1 & Euro 2) separated by the extended Mason-Dixon line?

I think you are missing the obvious: “MAGAnomics”. In a counterproductive effort to drive up the wages of “the base” and enrich the wealth class (his real base), Trump is pumping massive amounts of money into the economy with a unaffordable tax break. The rapidly escalating deficit will result in inflation, high interest rates and a recession.

There were not many solid solutions that came from the Great Recession - more like kicking the can down the road. Financial systems were not truly shored up but had money thrown at them to prevent crisis and create short term stability not long term stability and growth. Now here we are and our financial systems seem like a house of cards. Massive cheap debt to “fuel” growth is not real growth and cannot be sustained and maybe not even laid back. I worry about the other shoe dropping - the one that didn’t drop in 2008 to really push things over the proverbial edge.

An anti-billionaire uprising in the US could restore our democracy, lead to dozens of good government actions like campaign finance reform, Medicare for all, etc. Bring it!

The anti-billionaire uprising is an interesting thought. We've been steadily cutting taxes on the super-rich since 1962 -- that is 56 years! In Eisenhower's day, the top tax rate was 93 percent. Now billionaire real estate tycoons pay ... 6 percent? How much longer before this pendulum begins to swing the other way? What will it take -- a complete Trump-engineered meltdown of the health insurance market? Cuts to Social Security and Medicare ("entitlement reform" or whatever the far-right wants to call them)?

What a delightful read with which to start the day. Telling my broker to shift the asset allocation to a heavy weighting of "canned goods."

My favorite thing about this article is that it's in the style section. Glad to know that recession is what everyone's going to wearing in 2019. But seriously, I think a lot of younger generations are less into "Stuff" and that includes not needing the big house, the boats, and suburban SUVs... and that will inevitably create a sluggish economy - all these other things mentioned can definitely do their part to get us to another full out recession.