Trump Warns China That He’s ‘Tariff Man,’ Spooking Stock Investors

Stocks, which rallied Monday on the potential for a truce in the United States-China trade war, began a downward spiral on Tuesday as confusion set in about whether an agreement had truly been reached.


Comments: 213

  1. Let us hope this recession will be the last disaster of the Trump administration. Yes Trump owns this economy.

  2. @Steve In total agreement with you, right here in Roque Bluffs.

  3. @Art I thought I was all alone in Washington County.

  4. No need to panic yet.Consider what happened leading up to the Great Recession: The three-year bond yield moved above the five-year in August 2005, more than two years before the recession began in December 2007. The more closely watched indicator is when the two-year bond yield moves above the 10-year bond yield, something that hasn’t happened yet

  5. @Adam But did we have a tariff war in 2005 and an impending explosion in national debt? Not to mention a completely corrupt administration obsessed with enriching themselves through legislation changes irregardless of the economic impact on the 99% of other Americans. These will be an accelerant to an economy bound for recession, as well as exacerbating to the depth and length of it.

  6. @TheUglyTruth Maybe not. But we did have a terribly deregulated financial market causing one of the worst housing slumps in American history. This lasted for years before the bubble finally burst

  7. @Adam It's getting close on the yield curve. And in 2005 the Fed had real ammo to combat conditions. They have way less manoeuvreability now. The Trump recession will be here within a year!

  8. "This might sound like so much jargon important only to bond market geeks. But it matters." It will matter to Traitor Trump's mob when they start losing their jobs. Hoping that starts happening soon.

  9. A Recession doesn’t matter to Trump and his buddies. They got their millions in tax cuts and the biased Supreme Court. Too bad for the little guy.

  10. @RP Jamie Dimon said today that a recession wouldn't be that bad because J.P. Morgan would have great opportunities!

  11. @RP It will matter to them come 2020.

  12. @RP-The wealthy will get to buy up more assets at fire sale prices.

  13. Will someone please take away this man's phone or shut down his Twitter account?

  14. @mjbarr I agree. If he wasn't so dangerous, he'd just be pathetic.

  15. @mjbarr Where are the Russian hackers when we need them?

  16. @mjbarr. The way he uses the platform for stuff like obstruction of justice and witness tampering you'd think Twitter would at least have some policy about using their platform to commit crimes? Try selling fenced goods on EBay openly.

  17. I've been gradually investing money in a global index fund that has 63% of its stocks in the US, and about 95% in western markets. Is this a good time to temporarily withdraw? Or should I wait out the storm that might be coming?

  18. @Daniel Bolstad That depends on your personal tolerance and your time line. Markets abhor chaos and 2019 portends to be very politically chaotic. If you have decades to recover, you can view any downturn in the markets as a buying opportunity. One article written during the Great Recession by the greatest investor of our time helped reassure many of us with its wisdom and perspective: https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html Good Luck.

  19. Get out while your still can!

  20. @Daniel Bolstad How many years until you plan to retire?

  21. Well, wouldn't you know that the kleptocratic Grinch in the Oval Office would find a way to "steal Christmas." Now that the sugar high from the ill-advised tax cuts has passed, the perfect storm of unaffordable tax cuts, financial deregulation, and an economic jolt like "Tariff Man" Trump's trade war with China is about to push the economy into recession. With Americans already paying an extra 10 percent tax (aka tariff) on $250 billion in Chinese goods, the threat of even more spells disaster. Let's hope we remember the lesson of 2008 that no one is "Too Big To Fail" and no one is "Too Big To Jail."

  22. @Paul Wortman But, sadly, none of the Too Big to Fail went to jail.

  23. Somebody needs to check and see if he bought stock last week and then sold it yesterday. That would be "smart" by his definition, if he can get away with it.

  24. @roseberry Yep....I wouldn't be surprised if some of his family members or associates are shorting the markets

  25. @roseberry: Be sure than it was done through a bogus company in a tax haven.

  26. and criminal.

  27. It seems Trump constantly has very positive Twitter comments then very negative comments - the stock market constantly reacting - no Einstein needed here who is raking it in.

  28. It should be kept in mind that ten years ago this week, the FDIC increased the amount of insured deposits from $100,000 to $250,000 per acct/SSN, per institution. At the same time, the Federal Reserve allowed certain investment banks and other "non-bank" entities to issue FDIC-insured Certificates of Deposit. Thus Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley became bank holding companies, along with General Electric, American Express and entities such as Toyota financial. Can anyone think of a greater recipe for disaster if we have another financial meltdown such as 2008? Perhaps the "safe" money flows in US treasuries thus knocking down interest rates. But can the FDIC pay out the hundreds of billions if not trillions in insured deposits if gambling houses like Goldman and Morgan go under? Stay tuned....

  29. "This might sound like so much jargon important only to bond market geeks. But it matters." As a retiree dependent in large part on my meager retirement investments that supplement my meager social security benefits you bet it matters. And it is no small matter for myself and other retirees to see an entire year's gains wiped out. Hopefully Mr. Tariff Man will face Mr. Sheriff Man soon and some justice gets served up!

  30. @Mr. Bantree It is terrible that so many retired Americans are at the mercy of the stock and bond markets for their income. It is totally unpredictable and one has no control over ones assets. Frightening to me as an 80 years old who does have some rental income along with social security and therefore is not in such danger.

  31. Well if you are in the stock market you have to take the ups and downs. It is due for a major correction, so you may want to lessen your exposure.

  32. @Matthew I think we all understand the fundamental risks of market investment. What we don't need however is a President behaving erratically in both his belief that trade wars are great and his contradictory public comments that add unnecessary volatility. Trump's irresponsible actions do not fall under the category of expected market ups and downs.

  33. At this rate Trump is going to keep implementing policies which continue to destroy America, (to the extent you can even call any of the ruinous things Trump does policies), the Republicans will do nothing but enable and defend him, and then Trump will keep Tweeting until he triggers a world-wide depression. Once that happens, Trump will blame someone else, likely former President Obama, and finish by attacking the press for fake news when it reports that the stock market just crashed. Meantime, Fox News will parrot everything Trump says, and he won't lose the backing of any of the Americans in his base. Even if Trump burns the country to the ground he'll be fine as long as there are a half-dozen barefoot children somewhere in South America, over a thousand miles away, who happen to be walking in a northward direction. Trump's new line might as well be: "Recessions and Depressions are good, and easy to win."

  34. @Robert B Well, he'll soon have a Democratic house he can throw blame on. Usually I don't ascribe a President's actions to directly causing recessions, but in Trump's case I will make an exception.

  35. @Robert B In 2008, just before the election, Hannity said Democrats talking too much were causing a "psychological" recession. Later that week GWB panicked. He and Hank Paulen at Treasury, asked Pelosi for a blank check ASAP - in the trillions. She refused without knowing where it was going.

  36. @Robert B Trump is the best investment Putin ever made. He's the gift that keeps on giving.

  37. So much winning!

  38. @walkman I'm blinded by the victory.

  39. aren't the billions in tariffs coming from Americans who have to pay the extra freight? it's not coming from China.

  40. @Sarah Mac Indeed, but don't expect Trump to actually know what a tariff is.

  41. @Sarah Mac A tariff is a tax and they will be paid by all Americans.

  42. @Sarah Mac The point is to make foreign goods more expensive so local goods become more attractive. Of course it drives up the price of the local goods. Ask the car companies who are now all competing for American Aluminum.

  43. Is this a question of the very wealthy balancing the benefits (to them) of the Trump/McConnell/Ryan tax cut against the way Trump's lack of stability (tweets. public statements, relationships, you-name-it) effects the markets? The Republican Party won't do anything, but will the Kochs, the Mercers, Sheldon Adelson? Or am I being naive in assuming that Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Bankfein and the rest can't find ways to turn a profit out of this situation as well? Interesting developments in France lately. Wonder if Fox News is covering them.

  44. Every market bounce someone makes money. Every big bounce someone makes big money. trump must get a cut.

  45. Thank you Republican leaders! Hope you're enjoying you're tax cuts. You could dump Trump anytime you want, but won't because he owns your ignorant base and you need to give your donors more tax cuts, deregulation and right wing wacko judges. As my retirement funds fizzle with Trump's idiocies, may you fizzle faster.

  46. Add to Mueller's laundry list to investigate: market manipulation and insider trading. I certainly hope the SC's office has eyes on 45 & friend's stock portfolios and when they're buying/selling compared to timing of Twittler's inane pronouncements.

  47. A recession SHOULD matter to Trump, as it SHOULD hurt his campaign for 2020, if his policies on trade are responsible for precipitating the financial dip. Although to bank on anything sensible happening in U.S. politics in the near future is asking A LOT.

  48. I'm hoping he'll be in jail by then.

  49. Remember the tax cut plan that passed less than a year ago from the Republicans? I thought lower tax rates for big corporations would help the stock market. Who could have saw this coming?

  50. @Jim Lower tax rates for big corporations only help the economy if those extra dollars are invested in the economy, not if they sit in the personal accounts of the rich Republicans who benefited from the tax cut.

  51. "Who could have seen this coming?" Democrats, that's who. How many times are we going to do this? Every Republican president since Reagan has done the same thing--cut taxes for the wealthy and corporations--and the result is exactly the same every time. We get a few years of growth and the market soars, then everything crashes and, since they always raise the debt, we wind up spending the next several years working our way out of a recession. Reagan did it, HW Bush, W. Bush, and now Trump. And every time the growth is shorter and the recession is longer. And every time a Democrat has to come in and clean up the mess: Clinton had a surplus when he left office (that was wasted by Bush) and Obama had full employment (under 5%) and cut the deficit by 2/3. This republican ideology has never worked and people keep falling for it.

  52. @JV In addition to tax cuts for the wealthy, each iteration of this recurring horror movie is some kind of loosening of the reins in the financial sector. 1) Reagan: SEC 10b-18 stock price manipulation 2) Bush 43: Glass-Steagall [1] 3) Trump: Volcker rule [1] yes, I know Clinton signed Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act in 1999, did Clinton really have any choice when one considers Clinton's impeachment on December 19, 1998

  53. Maybe Congress needs to step up and amend the trade laws to limit what a president can do in levying tariffs, especially under the guise of “national security” an often nebulous determination.

  54. Been posting this same comment since summer. Time yo post again. The economy is not humming, it's on a crash trajectory. I mark January 1, 2018 as the official end of Obama's economy and the beginning of the next economic crash trajectory. Few supporting reasons: 1) corporate taxes were reduced by one third 1.1) creates artificial step increase in corporate performance without an actual increase in performance. (if a company's tax decreased by 1 million, its profit increased by 1 million, with zero change in goods and services produced) 1.2) money was used for stock buybacks, not for investment or wage increases 1.3) huge government borrowing (from China?) to make up for lost tax revenues, injecting billions of borrowed money into the economy, running up a huge goverment debt. 2) revoke Volcker rule, allows for propriety trading (gambling) with FDIC insured depositors savings by a few rich guys with access. This (combined with buybacks) is inflating another market bubble. 3) raised taxes (aka tariffs) on the middle class, which caused frontloading, another temporary bump in the economy. 4) two thirds of GDP is consumer spending, raised taxes (tariffs) places a huge drag on this. The market is not the economy of course. Since it is not possible to time the market or the economy, it is impossible to know when the next crash will occur, but we are certainly on the trajectory.

  55. @oldBassGuy Some of the items have already come and gone: 1) market bubble inflated to approx. 10% by September before it popped. 2) the frontloading has come and gone. 3) Midwest soy bean farmers and nail producers become welfare queens We appear to be in pump and dump mode now? Connected insiders buy shares, wait until share prices are pumped up, short, next day another idiotic trade war related trump tweet, presto...

  56. @oldBassGuy It usually takes Republicans 5 or 6 years to put the economy in the ditch with their dogmatic, "supply side" approach. Overlay some of the crazy stuff the Sun King is doing on that and no telling what's going to happen....whatever it is will probably be really bad.

  57. @oldBassGuy-Additional problems: unaffordable housing, prices on goods (especially food) will rise, student debt, etc. and on it goes....

  58. End the tariffs now, Trump. I can guarantee you there are millions of farmers in the Midwest who are not happy with how this is going. You tried, now time to rescind.

  59. So President Trump tweets "Make America Rich Again." Is he talking about the post WWII economy, between 1946-1970 or so? A time when the wealthiest Americans paid much more in taxes, when unions fought for higher wages for middle class workers, when corporations weren't allowed to shelter profits offshore, when (many) corporations actually cared about their workers and not just profits for shareholders, and when there wasn't such huge pay disparities between CEOs and average workers? Sure, I'm for all those things - let's bring them back again!

  60. @jrinsc Right and to add insult to injury, those tariffs are being paid by the consumers aka the 99%. Cars and beer went up because of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, GM, and now Ford, are downsizing; recession here we come. Heckuvvajob Donnie

  61. @jrinsc Also coming at a time when pent up demand due to the Depression and WW2 had the entire world looking to America for goods.

  62. For whatever reason, and many reasons will be offered—any of which and none of which may be accurate to some degree, this year, the Dow has had a ceiling of 26,000. That’s what traders are comfortable with for 2018.

  63. Another Republican trickle down recession on the way. Prediction--Republican solution : more tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy!

  64. China has been walking all over us for too long. We need a president who will take a harsh stance toward Chairman Jingping. We must make america great again!

  65. @Earl You're being sarcastic, of course.

  66. @Earl - You might want to read up on the amount of business the Trump family does with China.

  67. @Earl Is this a joke? A parody? Poe's Law is becoming more and more relevant as each day passes, with this preposterous excuse for a president we have. It's difficult to distinguish ignorance from satire.

  68. It’s truly amazing how some people still take what Trump says, or tweets, seriously.

  69. @Ran So we are confronted with: a) Take the tweets of POTUS seriously, in all their insanity, or b) Don't take the tweets of POTUS seriously, due to their insanity. A horrible position to be in, regardless, for the markets and for us.

  70. @Ran No, what's truly amazing is that Trump is president of the United States. This one, still unbelievable fact, perfectly sums up the horrible mess we're still in: Donald Trump is president of the United States.

  71. What's the big problem? Every Republican presidential administration is the same -- they give big tax cuts to their corporate friends and bribe the middle class by giving them a comparative pittance. The whole charade is timed to perfection. After corporations and the financial class of the 1% have have taken the lion's share of profit (and exquisitely timed to coincide with Democrats are taking office, the economy, on cue, collapses into recession. Then the Republicans in congress set up shop in the peanut gallery and spread howls of fake news about how bad Democrats are at managing the economy the Republicans have just intentionally wrecked so as to enrich their 1% cronies and campaign funders.

  72. @Kip Leitner So true. So true!

  73. David Stockman has been calling for this. The confusion of Trump's mindless tweets. The rollbacks of the Koch-picked Trump cabinet. The rollbacks of the Trump congressional GOP. The shifting around of congressionally approved funds for projects Trump cancelled back to Treasury to fund Trump's white supremacist operation at the border. Tax receipts that have dwindled since the Tax Scam Bill went into effect. The oligarchy is looting our nation. We are headed for a depression, not a recession. --- Things Trump Did While You Weren’t Looking https://wp.me/p2KJ3H-2ZW Reply293 RecommendShare

  74. trump just absolutely has to have the last word. Whether it’s for good or for bad matters not to him.

  75. The so called "Tariff man", as he puts it, is about to crash the world economy. He ants to male "America Rich again". What, that really means, by crashing the stock market, people will dump stocks, and he, and his 1% buddies, will snap up bargain stocks. This si what happened after the 2008 crash. Trump has already sent the market into correction. All gains are gone for the year. Now we are heading from 10%+ drop to maybe 1% to 20% drop. Throw in that the bond market is signaling a pending recession. A recession, in which, the government will not be able to stimulate because of tax cuts made one year ago. Should I also mention that Europe, Asia and Australia are either in a recession or heading there. All wrapped in a package of nationalism. As for how great the US economy is; most have not seen any from its start in December, 2007. Wages remain stagnant, and not keeping pace with inflation. Labor force participation rate continue sits decline. The unemployment rate is meaningless, because of a smaller active labor force and the low paying jobs being created. Trump, and the GOP, have recreated 1938 all over again. If people don't realize it; we have been in Great Depression II fro nearly 11 years. Unlike, 1938, the US doe snot have the manufacturing infrastructure to recover and rebuild. It only has service jobs and wealth on paper.

  76. Trump is completely crazy on trade. He brags about being a 'tariff man', apparently unaware that his OWN VOTERS are the ones who are directly paying the tariffs, not China. China pays for tariffs in one way: less quantity of items exported to the US. We pay for tariffs two ways: tariffs, aka TAXES, paid directly to the US government, AND lost jobs when businesses reduce their labor rolls thanks to the higher taxes. Investors need to quit selling or buying based on Trump's twitter raves. He changes his mind every other day. You might as well decide to sell stocks based on the behavior of a drunk driver barreling around the Nurburgring. Dump Trump if you want the economy to boom again.

  77. If the market is following Trump's tweets I want my money out of the market NOW.

  78. We will all be asking “ who let the Bear out?” In more ways than one.

  79. What I fail to understand here is why the NYT, the other legitimate media, the Stock Exchanges, and all of the other responsible institutions in our society even bother to report or respond to anything that Trump says or does, except to counter him and shine the light on his lying and deception. Telling truth to lies, and resistance to ANYTHING he does, or anything his minions do, seems the only progressive course. After all, he hasn’t really accomplished anything constructive in two years in office, only disassembled our Democracy. Stop giving him a platform! Subtract his media attention, and he’s a big Zero.

  80. He told the truth about one thing: I am sick and tired of all this winning.

  81. Trumpism is the glorification of ignorance and the empowerment of ignoramuses. From Global Warming to the Economy, the effects of ignorance are ever more palpable. This is just the beginning, much worse is yet to come as ignorance becomes more ingrained in the American culture. Those interested in the Middle Ages will get to re-live a way of life so utterly dominated by ignorance that it was thought to have been left behind for good. History has a way of repeating itself, this time in the most unlikely of places.

  82. Hold on to your 401k folks! Trump is making the stock market great again! Are we tired of all this winning yet?

  83. Why does any one listen to, let alone act upon, anything he says. It’s just random words strung together, and often doesn’t even form sentences.

  84. Most everything Trump has touched in his life has failed, from casinos to Vodka. He's about to add the American economy to the list.

  85. He was right. I am tired of (his kind of) winning. So tired.

  86. Financial whizz, moral leader, surely a shoe-in for a 2nd term.

  87. So many warnings yet Trump does the opposite. I can see this eventually coming to everybody blaming Trump for the recession. Although the seeds were already planted when he took office, he watered them profusely.

  88. My American company with American employees pays for the useless and economically damaging tariffs. Everyone knows this but the administration and Senate Republicans. We just can’t jack up our prices, the customers will go elsewhere. He is killing small American business owners with his dangerous and naive behavior.

  89. @Dink so did you support trump in 2016? Why are there not more of you small businesses speaking out against trump & saying how he is killing your American businesses. He doesn't care about any of you because he is only worried about the mega wealthy donors & his friends.

  90. With the intellectual firepower of the Trump Administration, the market should go into a massive sell off!

  91. This whole year the market has been on what one analyst called a "sugar high". Of course, the gutless, deficit-drunk republicans and Trump will blame Obama somehow as the recession settles in.

  92. Republicans--far from being good for business and the economy--are costing me a tremendous amount of money. I get to watch my investments plunge in value in an incredibly volatile stock market. As a resident of a blue state, I get to watch as my federal taxes go UP. They're literally siphoning money out of my pocket and giving it to the ultra-wealthy and corporations. I get to watch my friends struggle to find decent-paying jobs. Every time they are laid off by their corporate overlords they slip another rung down the ladder. In their 40s, they are so far from ever being on track to retire it's ridiculous. And for what? For what? All of this is 100% unforced error.

  93. The Trump sugar high reflected in the stock market hit reality today. Once a con man, always a con man.

  94. Someone tell Trump that when he lies about matters relating to tariffs or any other economic matters, the markets will punish him. The fool came away from G-20 with another fable, and we all pay.

  95. trump will cause market turmoil with his tweets; the question is whether he is inept, indifferent or whether he does this stuff to show that he can and to try to bury his own troubles in yo-yo pain/gain for investors. There is only one trump event that would make the gyrations worthwhile, and that his removal from Office.

  96. The DOW is 200 points higher today than it was five days ago. All you financial wizards can panic and get out of the market, please!

  97. Tariffs are fees paid by the buyers, not the sellers. We’re not making a dime off of the Chinese or anyone else. Only the US citizens are paying the tariffs. The president is too dense to understand that.

  98. @Pb of DC Unfortunately so are Trump's supporters, so far.

  99. OK Republicans. How many time does Trump have to crash the stock market before you notice he's leading us into another Great Recession? Your tax cuts and privatizations are going to destroy the global economy again. Support impeachment now! We cannot afford Trump's externalities.

  100. What ever happened to “the art of the deal?” Donald Trump has stiffed auto workers, factory workers, farmers, minimum wage earners and the lower strata of the American financial system. Those who foolishly voted for Elmer Gantry were seduced by the thrilling prospect of another know-nothing businessman (does Herbert Hoover ring a bell?). They didn’t pay attention to the signs: to his shabby treatment of contractors and employees and his many bankruptcies. They did not—or could not—see that his financial empire was all smoke with the hard currency somewhere overseas where (it is alleged) his “fortune” washed clean the drug and sex and terrorist money that is the foundation of of the international crime syndicate. Robert Mueller’s trying to untangle the spider webs of intrigue and obfuscation. Donald Trump inherited money but that doesn’t mean he knows anything about finance. We’re seeing that now and the Wall Street CEO’s are now taking fright at the monster they created. Who wouldn’t be surprised at another recession or even a depression? So much winning.

  101. Trump can't hold onto a position for fifteen minutes. If he doesn't suffer from dementia, then he suffers from having the shallowest grasp of economics (trade wars are easy to win...how's that working out for you, Donnie?), science, climate, international politics, and the fact that as President of the United States he doesn't get to be a (very bad) real estate developer anymore. (This IS the guy who couldn't make a go of a casino in Atlantic City...)

  102. "Stocks fell on Tuesday, after President Trump sowed confusion over the status of a truce in the trade war between the United States and China..." Sowing confusion as deliberate strategy? Or time for Cabinet members to "collude" and take action on the 25th? Just thinkin...

  103. @Joan Bee Sowing confusion as deliberate strategy? Actually, its a sound financial strategy if you know its going to happen.

  104. Trumponomics 101 - definition of tarrifs - A fancy way to raise taxes on everyone without saying the words "raise taxes". i.e. Trump gives a tax cut to the rich then makes the rest pay with tarrifs.

  105. Having Trump babble conflicting messages day after day about pretty much everything except "The Wall" and "Hillary's emails" is not helpful to the stock market or anything else. A President is supposed to bring some sense of stability to the country and world to the best of his or her ability. Trump is kind of the Bizarro President isn't he?

  106. @ Greg. Am I the only one that believes trump does things like this simply for the thrill he gets when the stock market reacts? Is it beginning to become clear that EVERYTHING he does is designed to show the world that he is the almighty and can build and destroy on a tweet? He is living in his reality show universe, and we are the contestants. I fear he does not know the difference, and we are not confronting but enabling his pathology in hopes that we might "win" his favor and not be the one who gets fired. DJT is playing his game and loving every minute of it. And the GOP does nothing as he trashes our country.

  107. Trump, the sower of confusion and destruction in every way. Wasn't that he's stated goal at the outset of his campaign and his presidency? All the while with his personal goal of enriching himself and his family at the cost of our democracy and economy. Why would his base ever believe he cared about them. His actions show all that he does not care. GOP? Where are you to balance this rogue, money laundering president? In his pocket, no doubt, involved with some of his get richer schemes. I think of Mitch McC and his wife Elaine Chao's family's shadowy shipping company. We mustn't forget Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif) pointing out his GOP comrades, “There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump,” McCarthy (R-Calif.) said in 2016. How many other GOP are compromised. Why don't they protect the nation from Trump, et. al.?

  108. @E C Scherer Why don't they protect the nation from Trump, et. al.? Perhaps the rot goes deeper than we thought.

  109. Just like it took eight years for Obama to clean up after the younger Bush mess and get the country back to progress and out of a near depression, so it will take another democrat another eight years to fix this mess that trump is creating in a few short years, having been handed a strong economy on a growth path. He was aided, very effectively, by the complicit republican congress. Apparently, we don't learn from history. To elect such a con man shows a lack of critical and clear thinking and some weird belief in simple hucksterism and tag phrases. We are truly a country of morons.

  110. @Mark And Bush the Younger inherited a surplus from Bill Clinton, which was spent on wars and tax cuts, culminating in the Great Recession. Its an established pattern that Republican voters don't seem to understand. Luckily this time, we have a financial wizard at the helm.

  111. @Mark The democratic system is poorly suited to making the correct long term decisions needed to deal with long term problems. Like climate change, voters will always vote for their short term personal gain over the long term benefit to the country and their heirs.

  112. @Mark don’t overlook the impact of GOP gerrymandering in this fiasco. We aren’t so dumb as voters, we elected Hillary by a generous margin. But the badly skewed districting over turned the will of the people.

  113. Hey...the Koch's got their cuts! The GOP cannot figure out blood from a stone!

  114. Donald Trump played a savvy business man on reality TV shows. Full stop. Our president knows nothing about economics, doesn't care, and most certainly doesn't care that his work to rip up a decent economic expansion will hurt Americans. This is what you get when you elect an utter nincompoop.

  115. @John He figured out how to beat seasoned politicians to become President. Let's see you figure that one out.

  116. So. Much. Winning.

  117. How crazy, or should I say "criminal", is it that the President of the USA keeps falsely claiming the tariffs result in billions being paid to the USA economy? See this NYTimes article for the truth: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/29/us/politics/how-tariffs-work-china.html For Trump to tweet "We are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs" and "Billions of Dollars are pouring into the coffers of the U.S.A. because of the Tariffs being charged to China" is just a straight outright lie. It's no wonder most of anything he says has to be fact checked and generally ignored. This is our leader? He is a daily embarrassment to informed citizens. But worse, it seems his diminutive grasp of global economics is destroying the USA economy. Only his mind can see his pinhole path to success that reality seems to be circumventing.

  118. The captain is headed for the rocks and ignoring the please to correct the course of the ship.

  119. Mr. Trump: Stop talking!!!! You are rattling the markets and destroying the lives of those of us you are near retirement. What you are doing is not in the best interest of the United States. How would you like it if you lost all your money?

  120. @Concernedcitizen He may be making money from these announcements.

  121. "This might sound like so much jargon important only to bond market geeks. But it matters." This patronizing, "dumbed down" tone is really not appropriate for a news article.

  122. Pls lighten up, Nat. We are not all financial wizards. I appreciate the author realizing this. Remember, the "Books for Dummies" are enormously popular for those interested in learning.

  123. Trump is ignorant. He doesn't understand and misrepresents how tariffs work. The US Govt does NOT “take in” tariff money ... tariffs are (indirect) “taxes” on US importers/exporters & ultimately consumers (higher prices). Stop lying to “We the People”.. and tell them that your “Tariff Man” tariffs are causing prices to go UP .... and these costs are largely passed onto the consumer.

  124. @John Engelhardt. Tariffs are collected by the U.S. Treasury, just like any other import duty. Importers then seek to get reimbursed by consumers through higher prices.

  125. Now, who is singing Trump 2020????? 45, was, and is, a big mistake, to say the least.

  126. As always this is not about anything near reality. The Big Jerk wants to keep looking like a Big Man - and does not care what that does to anyone anywhere. He could not keep casinos open with his phony baloney and we are supposed to trust him with the entire country's economy? Anything that does not glorify or kiss his ring is of course a waste of time. The market reaction is totally correct in that they have already factored in his instability and inability to grasp basic financial truths and don't want to float his boat with their dough.

  127. This slide in confidence is to be expected when a 5 year old is in charge of the economy of our country, as is the case today. Trump's "gut" informs most all of his decisions. His impulsiveness and impatience leads him to an inability to stick to one side of an issue for very long. His lack of curiosity and inability to read any insightful briefs puts him on the uninformed side of economic issues. He likes to float trial balloons, then changes his mind as he listens to Fox. His every thought on economics is filtered through his anti-globalist filter, and his free trade bent. He is strongly influenced by people who will be shown by history to be wrong such as Bannon, Navarro, and Bolton, and Lighthizer. Seasoned economic experts such as Gary Cohen are gone, no longer able to take him any longer. When will Mattis ( a strong defender of globalism and free trade ) depart? No wonder Trump bankrupted so many companies he held. And now he gets to bankrupt an entire country and fiddle with it's economy like it was some gaudy bauble in his sand box toy collection.

  128. Trump sowing confusion?! He can't even remember what his pal Xi agreed to do 24 hours earlier. Actually, Don Fredovich ("son of Fred" in Russian) is doing better than I expected at this point: I was sure he would have wrecked the economy and attacked Iran or North Korea by now....maybe we can "look forward" to such things in 2019.

  129. YESSS! The ultimate higher power in America speaketh. Time for a clearing the swamp with a recession. Thank you GOP!

  130. A direct link between a big magnitude 3.24% market drop with uncertainty about what exactly Trump accomplished with China, if anything. Perhaps that will raise a few more GOP eyebrows?

  131. The problem with trump's deal makings is that there are never any firm details or commitments. Then he tweets that he won & everyone will see big changes very quickly. Does he not know that big changes never happen quickly? Farmers soy bean crops are worthless now & they won't see any changes for months & months. How long does milk surplus stay usable? trump is clueless to the workings of world economy & trade. You may be able to see rapid results in real estate but it doesn't happen in the real world of people's lives. I hope the stock market stays down so those fools who keep supporting trump because their portfolios are doing great see that he isn't a leader or a deal making genius.

  132. I am totally disgusted with Mr. Trump and the way he toys with our economy. While I can handle the ups and downs of the stock market, it is not pleasant to go through them just because Trump can't get his act together. Let Mr. Trump take as much responsibility for the recent stock market swings as he was willing to take when the market was going up. On second thought, I won't hold my breath; it'll never happen.

  133. Get used to it folks. This is our reality for the next 2 years.

  134. Don't worry, because when we are in the next recession Trump will deny it. So that means we won't be in the next recession. It's just that 8 percent of the work force will be "lazy" and "not wanting to work" rather than not having jobs.

  135. The importance of a President that understands capital markets and how it powers the economy can't be understated. Sending tweets out that create confusing and contradictory "noises" around complex trade matters between countries is exactly the type of impulsive behavior we are taught not to engage in when investing from the time we bought our first shares. Though he portrays himself as a business man, his failure to grasp the most basic appreciation of how capital markets function is deep cause for concern. Without this basic understanding and if cabinet members including the Secretary of the Treasury, the Special Trade Representative, and Commerce Secretary don't put a stop to this reckless behavior of unsupervised tweets, a series of small accidents he is creating will rapidly escalate into a serious collision with Wall Street and investors. The economy will suffer great harm.

  136. Perhaps the markets also fell because Trump’s tweets reflect that the leader of the world’s largest economy has a horrifying and profound ignorance about tariffs and their effects. That should frighten anyone paying attention as he continues his destructive course. He is the existential threat that those who know him warned us about before the election. One can only hope that Wall Street and the Republican Party who have thus far looked away and tacitly condoned him out of greed and power plays, may finally become sufficiently rattled and demand his impeachment, for which there is already ample ground.

  137. Why would anyone make a financial decision based on something our capricious president has said or tweeted?? He lies constantly. No sane person should believe anything that comes out of his mouth. 99% of what he's said he would do has not been done, if even attempted. He's been out maneuvered by China, North Korea and Russia, to name a few. He is truly impotent, except where protecting our ecosystem and bullying our friends are concerned.

  138. Clearly, this is the fault of the democratically controlled House. Also, BENGHAZI!

  139. Relax...Trump is only negotiating.

  140. @Skilled. Yes, negotiating with other's money and livelihoods. As with his financial failings, when "negotiatons" fail, he will stiff us all and go home to riches made while in office.

  141. @Skilled Now I'm really worried.

  142. Another totally unnecessary recession on the way, courtesy of more foolish and irresponsible Republican policies, after Obama worked so hard and so long to set us right after the last one. I'm getting really sick of this cycle, where I work so hard to move ahead only to have some GOP goofball scramble the game board -- again. And again. And again.

  143. Don’t worry. Our next democratic President and leadership will clean up this mess. Such as they always do. The pattern continues....

  144. I just don't see it. The world economy is just purring along arbiter at a slower rate that's all. Even trump's pontificatings can slow this economic train. imho. Employment's high and lots of folks have $$ in their pockets. Not yo worry. b happy

  145. When will Wall Street learn what 60% of the nation already knows. You can't trust a word that comes out of Trump's mouth let alone allow it to influence your trading decisions. Following his every whim or spin will give this nation nothing more than a bed of quicksand to build our financial future on. This man is a 4 time bankruptcy disaster and puting your faith in him is to flrit with the biggest bancrupcy of all - that of the United State's economy. Get over him and get back to basics!

  146. Who really cares? Putin is chuckling for sure but the class of investors who move the markets short term are even stupider and more thin skinned than trump. One day the markets will realize that mankind's survival on this earth is in doubt and that will be the day to sell short and drink some expensive wine laced with hemlock.

  147. Modest correction. More on the way kiddies The idea of “inversion” points to how phony the fiat paper push really is.

  148. This Administration is the Ship of Fool’s. Disastrously, the American people are prisoners on this ship.

  149. I’m just so tired of all this winning.

  150. You know how various outlets are keeping track of all Trumps lies? Maybe its time to keep track of these sorts of things? Trump speaks/tweets and the market slips chart/graph.. Should be simple enough to do. Might give Mr. Krugman something else to chart, and wonk-on. Occasionally connect them to his lies as well, see how they all link-up...really give the NYT's graphics dept something to play with...

  151. @Boregard Yes, and more attention should be paid to how these announcements affect Trump's bottom line and those of his family and associates.

  152. When I watch business shows on TV, read business articles on the internet, and hear business shows on the radio, people are always talking about the "fundamentals" of the U.S. economy, which they reckon are strong. It seems to me that one or the the most fundamental economic "fundamentals", and one that is never mentioned is this : Until January of 2017, we had in the White House a man of extraordinary talents, intelligence, political skills and a deep love for America. Today the situation is very different. What we now have is a vulgar, know-nothing, 4-times bankrupt narcissist and con-artist who couldn't pour urine out of a boot, even if the directions were written on the heel. In 2009, President Obama was handed an economy in a deep state of trouble (in a depression, really), and over a period of 8 years fixed it. For the past 2 years, the economy has, in my opinion, coasted upward under the inertial momentum imparted to it by Obama and his advisers. Considering the level of "talent" now residing in the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives, we're lucky we're not living 1930 all over again, although I believe that is still very possible. It seems like a good metaphor for our current economic situation is : We're all in a Boeing 747 that is roaring down the runway, with an untrustworthy troglodyte in the left seat of the cockpit. A zoo specimen that has a demonstrated knack for fouling things up. Can this trip end well ? I worry ...

  153. @Iman Onymous To add to that. We are all traveling in a spaceship traveling 67K miles/hr. That spaceship is covered by a thin delicate atmosphere with all of humanity and lifeforms as precious cargoes. The climate is now changing and fluctuating drastically in the past decades but is not a cause of concern for our president or his supporters.

  154. And the republican fakes in congress keep playing the fiddle. And the Trump base dances all the way to oblivion. And the twit continues to tweet.

  155. The perfect cure for the Trump plague is a good old recession, right around March of 2020. It is the bleach we need to clean out the stench of this disease. It got rid of the Republican infection in 2008, and it will get rid of them again in 2020.

  156. @DrG If we can last that long.

  157. One can only hope that Mr. Trump will soon be referred to in the past tense.

  158. @jgm He will win again in 2020 unless Democrats moderate their hard left stance.

  159. @MM Not if the economy tanks before the election...

  160. @MM: Democrats stand for: 1. Public investments in world-class schools and infrastructure for all. 2. Free public universities and first-class technical training for all; 3. Single-payer Medicare-for-all; 4. Higher taxes on the wealthy to pay for single-payer; 5. Using antitrust to break up powerful monopolies on Wall Street, Big Tech, Big Pharma, and Big Agriculture. 6. Getting big money out of politics. - RR Not too "hard left", if you ask me. If the average tRump supporter had the capacity to understand the above, well, . . .

  161. Why would anyone believe Trump after innumerable lies about everything that comes out of his mouth? When he came back and said all is well and there was a truce with China, it was just like him coming back and saying, "There is no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea." Really? Yet, the market reacted positively to his nonsense yesterday. I have yet to read or hear a truthful statement come out of Trump's mouth since he was a candidate. As many have said, he is completely incapable of uttering a truthful statement, vocally or in a tweet. And today, people apparently came to their senses and realized, "Wait a minute...that "truce" coming from Trump yesterday...

  162. The sun, moon, and stars rise and fall on the broad shoulders of Our Dear Leader Trump. Our economy, our wealth, and our self-esteem as a nation rises and falls on the broad shoulders of Our Dear Leader Trump. Would could go wrong?

  163. crazy growth in only one minuscule part of the whole body causing the whole body to buckle wildly until it breaks. american capitalism or cancer? both.

  164. President Trump wrote:"WE are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs. MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN." Well, there is a problem with that sentence. The one whom pay for the tariffs are not the Chinese businessman but the American consumers. So the final sentence should be MAKE AMERICAN CONSUMER PAY MORE.

  165. As long as we exist in a capitalist economy, what the market does directly affects the rest of the economy . . . so, please retire the moniker that 'Wall Street isn't Main Street'. What is happening affects everyone of us--retirement funds, college endowments, loans to farmers or small manufacturers. Trump and his cronies are insulated from this (assuming he has even a tenth of what he claims he has)--they don't care if students default on college loans (it's the student's fault for aiming high) or a retiree is forced into penury (it's their fault for not saving enough) or a farmer goes broke (didn't fill out paper work for the bailout). The chaos that Trump has created will be with us for more than just the next election cycle or two--one of the missing elements in this discussion is the growing simultaneous effects of the climate crisis. As our economy is stretched to the breaking point, we will be unable to respond to the needs resulting from large scale disasters or the slow violence of displaced populations, failing infrastructure or any number of concerns.

  166. Remember this man is still engaged in money making schemes while being the president. I wonder how his portfolio is manipulated prior to each of these announcements. Which family member benefits while the rest of the country suffers.

  167. @Kathleen His portfolio, if he has one, probably consists of large amounts of real estate leveraged to the Russians. Likely unaffected by his incompetence.

  168. @Kathleen It's not just his portfolio. Let's remember who is the money behind him, McConnell, DeVos, every member of his cabinet actually, and all his 'friends'.

  169. @Kathleen My thoughts exactly! Trump's primary interest is his own wealth. It would almost be against his nature not to profit from the chaos he produces; he won't be stupid enough to do so directly, but I would love to see an investigation into who benefited especially from these Trump-induced market gyrations.

  170. Why wouldn't the stock market be in trouble? Over the last decade since the financial crisis, the Fed has dumped 4.5 TRILLION conjured dollars into our economy, and then Trump and Congress poured in another 1.5 trillion with their tax cuts. How could the stock market NOT have gone up????? And how could it not now fizzle since the money flood of money has been turned off? Along with the stock market, our nation's debt has gone up too, and now, with rising interest rates, we will pay higher interest for our borrowing. The government and private citizens are deeply in debt, and we are all told--THE ECONOMY IS GREAT. We are all living in a dream: we should be screaming in the Streets!

  171. How much richer did America get today after losing 3% off the S&P?

  172. I thought he was The King of Debt. Now he's The Tariff Man? Inmate No. 0735428 would sound better.

  173. Based on Trump's record of bankruptcies and failures, this is totally what one would expect from this administration. Trump Air, Trump University, Trump Wimes and Meats, Trump's Football League and so many others, now including Trump's Make America Great.......

  174. @Mike: Don't forget the casino bankruptcies. The league of economic "advisers" he has appointed is sure to flush the US economy down the toilet; look at the trend. . . Utter incompetence.

  175. I wonder if one of his investments somewhere needed propping up?

  176. He does NOT understand how tariffs work! Hurry Mr. Mueller.

  177. Trump, wrecking the U.S economy, the thing he is best at!

  178. I know this may sound a little paranoid and pessimistic but has anyone considered the possibility that some folks in the Trumpian kingdom, including the king himself, are intentionally creating this type of chaos for at least 2 reasons: one, to divert attention and two, to make money? I’m not sure if Don is smart enough to make all these calculations but he sure knows very well how to create havoc and turmoil and he and his goons are profiting from it. Given their greed for more wealth, power, control and lack of moral or ethical intentions, wouldn’t you expect these kinds of acts? Look at all the illegal things they have done, and continue to do, before and after he took office. They have (he has) no true interest in the people in this country, all he/they care about is themselves. Maybe he’s not smart enough to do this by himself, but others on his team are evil enough to manipulate him so that they all personally benefit. Lock them up!

  179. So much for having a self-described 'very smart guy' and multiple bankrupted business 'genius' in charge of the economy. Who by the way, went to the 'very best' schools, too. So there. Put that in your deflated portfolio and smoke it.

  180. We often bash Trump and Congress for their incompetence, with good reason. But the market events from Monday and Tuesday are not about them, even if Trump made the tweets. We now have 2 years of hard evidence that Trump constantly lies. Who the heck can continue to fall for his lies and make actual financial movements based on them? The market is not Republican nor Democrat. Why are people even taking seriously anything uttered by the President, two years into his term? If anything tells me that we’re heading for a severe crash is these sort of events that show me the stupidity of the people that make market purchase decisions based on something that Trump tweeted. Everyone thinks they can ride the dangerous carnival coaster and that they will be the only smart ones to know when to get off. No, if the market can jump Monday due to a Trump tweet, and fall on Tuesday due to another tweet, nobody, NOBODY is smart enough for anything here. It’s all coming crashing down at some point, even if you’re not on the ride itself.

  181. @Miguel sanchez: The market sees past tRump's lies; it's not acting on his Tweets or his, otherwise, statements. Typically, the market acts upon current data and the significance of such as it relates to the intermediate future, say, six to 12 months. What it did act upon today is the yield curve (and has been for the last six months); the yield curve is the benchmark for anticipating the next recession. . .

  182. Pure market manipulation. Legal or not. Wonder if donnie jr was short the market today. Who will hold these crooks' feet to the fire. Rhetorical question.

  183. There are many within the orbit of the mighty gaseous sun that is Trump. Perhaps the reason for them being there is not gravity but that they would get early access to his ruminations and tweets . i find it impossible to believe that with his evident lack of self control that there would not be the opportunity for some to profit by getting on the right side of the outcome of his statements and actions. Where is the investigations into those who may have profited by , for example , short selling on any market around the world prior to this most recent diatribe.

  184. @Bill Weaver Follow Ross' and Mnuchin's money!

  185. It would fascinating to know how this reporter determined what warning the bond market was "sending". And was the warning in addition to, or despite, being a "safe haven"? Strange, how journalists know why markets go up and down, but never in advance.

  186. @jrd Mybe because they are smarter than you are. In fact what they are pointing out is very true...but you's have to semi educated to understand the word inversion.

  187. @James Young Why be insulting to a civil comment?

  188. More ignorance and incompetence from the worst President in the history of our great nation. Thankfully caring Americans will remove him from office on November 3, 2020.

  189. @Tom Augaitis: Are there enough "caring" Americans among us? From where I sit, I see widespread ignorance, fear and hate.

  190. @Tom Augaitis I agree wholeheartedly... if we can hold on that long.

  191. @Tom Augaitis Maybe, if we're lucky, before that - and in chains. Hello Guantanamo!

  192. Sad to say, we told you so. The grotesquely inflated market, along with the removal of regulation, has led us down the primrose path. This time, Obama won't be there to save us all. Just our cowardly "stable genius" bullying fool-in-chief.

  193. @Susan Anderson Mr Obama’s administration did not hold any of the perps accountable for the Great Recession financial debacle. Yes, the primrose path.

  194. @srwdm That accountability -- and trials and prison sentences -- did not occur remains evil. However, the world's economies did not collapse. Any bets on what would have happened if the current White House had been in place?

  195. @srwdm Yeah, sort of. But you've forgotten that he was elected on a platform of reconciliation and moving on. Took him a long time to give up on converting the opposition to sensible ideas and ideals. He surrendered too much, but it's not an easy judgment call to make, ecept with 20/20 hindsight

  196. There's nothing like having the unstable president tweeting about the stock market to make it more unstable then him. The only thing more scarier then that is the fact that he's in charge of the security of our nation!

  197. @BTO It's even better when he tweets about nuclear warfare.

  198. Hmmmm, it’s my undertanding the tariff is not paid by the exporter, but by the importer. So Trump’s statement that tariffs make America rich means US companies pay the government more for products they import. Seems like a back-handed tax to me that doesn’t make Americans wealthier at all. Maybe, however, this tax..err tariff... will help offset the tax cut that benefited mostly the wealthy. Thanks President Trump.

  199. This is great! I love winning. Thank you Mr. Tarriff Man.

  200. @BSB Hilarious, and true!

  201. Macro Econ 101: tariffs ultimately raise consumer prices => tariffs are a tax on consumers. Trump is committing fiscal malpractice. ‘First do no harm.’ Wharton should withdraw Trump’s diploma.

  202. I hope someone is monitoring the Trump family's stock portfolio because it seems in line with everything else we know about the Trumps that the Don (or any of the others) could buying and selling securities before tweeting things that would be to their advantage. Real presidents set up systems to ensure us that this wasn't happening, but Reality Show Don's approach to cleaning the swamp seems to be to jump in head first to scare everything else out.

  203. Dude, Trump doesn't even want to show his tax return. And we let him get away with it!

  204. @cary My money would be on the Kushners. Trump's kids are somewhat dim and I don't see them pulling the off.

  205. If Trump is "raking in billions" from the tariffs, that amounts to an admission that working people have already paid back their meager, temporary tax cut. I guess Republicans are OK with big money going to the government, as long as it's not coming from rich people.

  206. Recessions are generally fertile conditions for right-wing, authoritarian politicians. The world today bears that out as a result of the Bush Worldwide Recession.

  207. @th Actually the Bush recession gave us Obama, hardly a far-right-wing authoritarian politician. the Great Depression gave us Delano Roosevelt. Hardly right wing.

  208. Is Trump trying to take the whole country down because he is so infuriated at Mueller who is edging closer and closer to ensnaring Trump and his family for their dealings with the Russians. He is shaking in his shoes because impeachment or even arrest are looming large right now, so he is lashing out like a trapped animal. Or is it as my husband suggested, he cannot stand all the well deserved accolades and attention being focused on former President George H.W. Bush, so he is turning the attention back to himself? Bush's death reminded all of us, whether on the left or right politically, what a moral, decent President used to be like. Please, as another commenter stated, take the man's phone away from him now, before he completely destroys the economy.

  209. I notice with some alarm that some Trump opponents seem to hope there is a recession, if that's what it takes to get rid of Trump. Hey- I am not one of his supporters, but I really don't want to suffer through another recession. In a recession, the middle class suffers most. We lose jobs, our 401ks go down, our homes lose value, so-no- I don't want a recession just to defeat Trump. What on earth would we gain by the economic suffering of millions ? If that is the only way to defeat someone, we have only ourselves to blame.

  210. @Gino G Too late, it's coming....the Trump train is crashing, best get out of the way.. what's really funny, is, those in the mid-west that thought he was going to bring back manufacturing jobs, they will be the hardest hit, and they will be standing in that nasty entitlements line that they dislike so much, you know, the unemployment.food stamp line.

  211. @Gino G OH NO, we do not want a recession any more than someone in FL wants a hurricane. But what we want does not effect what is going to happen. FL is going to get hit by the storm. We are very, very likely to be hit by a recession because this guy has no consistent policy only whims and moods.

  212. @Gino G Trump doesn't follow opponents. He follows orders- in this case Putin's.