Mr. Litman's savvy assessments likely cover the bases, yet Mr. Manafort's well-documented excesses -- his many homes, lavish lifestyle, and over-the-top spending -- suggest a personality created by an existential impatience with the generally slower processes of acquiring valuable skills and building a successful career through genuine achievements. That impatience, along with the insatiable vanity often paired with it, might explain why some business leaders, regarded by most as exceptionally successful, nevertheless choose to resort to fraud and deceit in lieu of honest competition. (Think of allegations against Facebook, Uber, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Volkswagen, among recent examples.) My point is that people in the grip of that compulsive mindset do not always think clearly, and when exposure and retribution loom, they cannot face the enormity of their falseness, for deceit is what has defined and empowered them, and they come unglued.
610
@Mark Hugh Miller
To your list we can now add Nissan.
14
@Mark Hugh Miller...
True...But Manafort had the capability of succeeding in his efforts to live the "good life".
It is going to be fascinating to see what happens to Tony Podesta, a person and head of a firm that was deeply involved with Manafort in dealing with Ukraine. Tony was just as culpable, and brother John was there on the fringes making sure that all went as smoothly as possible.
8
@The Owl
The Podestas will likely face the music, like everybody else. What else are you suggesting?
10
Yes there is a good reason. The Judge was not going to let him off easy regardless of what Muellers suggestion is. Manforts better to take his chances with Trump for a commutation after the 2020 elections. He does not need a pardon. This guyhas money tucked away that even Mueller will never find
2
Oh, yes there is!....His lawyers have been communicating wit the Trump Regime and a pardon has been promised....We are dealing with Swamp Creatures, after all.
12
4. Maybe he's just a sociopath.
15
Manafort is essentially a corrupt person who has paid little consequences to date for his life of fraud and deceit. The liar in chief is in a similar category, based on his bankruptcies, cheating and narcissism . I hope the rule of law prevails and they both get their comeuppance.
14
Wouldn’t he be a target of the Russian mafia if he squeals on Trump?
5
Sorry, Harry, but hypotheses 2 & 3 seem to have been invented as foils for Numero Uno, the pardon. It's the pardon, stupid.
5
What was Paul Manafort thinking:
"I'm a liar, it's what I do. Lying is what I've always done...can't stop now. I've worked for liars. I've hired liars. I take money from liars and I give money to liars. I speak well of liars and they speak well of me.
Just one more lie they'll never know. Oooops."
8
What I have believed all along is that this was a media manipulation game Trump and Manafort had been playing. They set up scenarios where Manafort (and Papadopolous) agree to cooperate, all the while knowing Trump will pardon them. They will come up to testify about the stories Mueller wanted to hear but say they were told to lie by Mueller's team in order to make a case against Trump but they now refuse to do this for the good of the country.... This of course would all be lies but Trump's band of idiot followers would drink up any conspiracy theory Trump floats out there so they dont look so stupid for supporting a traitor to the country. Also, the Republicans like Nunes, Graham and McConnell who are also in bed with Russians, will rally against Mueller, making him look like a cop who just planted cocaine on an innocent man to make a bust. Its all very sad. Trump is Treason but this country may never know how bad he is.
8
It’s a rather peculiar article for the NYT. When a moslem terrorist is on tape blowing up innocent people, NYT normally says that the Islamist has “allegedly” committed a terrorist attack. But in this case, when Manafort is accused of lying under oath, and the accusation is not proven in the court of law, the NYT takes the accusation at a face value.
Why?
4
It is obvious that Manafort didn't tell Mueller what the latter wished to hear. But how does Mr Litman know that Manafort lied? So far, all we have is the disappointed Mueller's word for it. Shouldn't the NYT wait for some evidence before it assumes that Manafort lied?
25
Manafort lied because he, like Trump, is an inveterate liar. Its what these people do. If you have not interacted with crooks and liars, you can't understand. These people literally think that they are smarter than everyone else and they can lie their way out of anything. They believe this in the face of overwhelming evidence because if they confront the reality, that they are losers, their entire self-image crumbles and that is unacceptable to someone who has spent their life telling themselves they are great and everyone else is wrong.
Mueller knows this. He has convicted dozens of these kind of idiots. He knew that if he gave Manafort and Trump any rope, they'd hang themselves - and they did. Manafort lied to the FBI, then told Trump what he said, so that Trump could corroborate those lies. Mueller already knew the true answers to those questions, and had evidence to back up those truths. He allowed Manafort to lie and rope in Trump, who gleefully jumped on the liars' bandwagon.
Now, Mueller can toss out the plea agreement, because Manafort lied, and bring Manafort to court for sentencing. During that court apprearance, which is a public appearance, Muller can, and must, lay out exactly what Manafort lied about and any other crimes he committed to violate his plea deal. Those revelations will illuminate crimes committed by Trump as well, including lying to the FBI, in writing, and tampering with witnesses.
10
Hypnosis #4
Manafort is apparently happy with his current accommodations and would like to spend the remainder of his life there.
2
Can we please indict every Republican in Congress for conspiracy to obstruct justice?
13
It's a bit scary to think this: Manafort is a cunning man who obviously thought about his options and then decided to put all his eggs into the Trump/Putin basket, rather than cooperate truthfully with the Mueller investigation. Manafort obviously is betting on Trump, and wide spread corruption and lack of ethical behavior, to carry the day in our country now. Not a pleasant surmise.
5
The assassination theory is quite plausible, if you broaden the group under threat to include Manafort's wife, children and grandchildren. It becomes more likely when you recall the poisoned GRU colonel's daughter was also poisoned and both the colonel's apparently healthy wife and son both mysteriously died.
Only a Trump would not go to jail for life to save his family.
4
I love the fact that the media and a great deal of the population in general, despite all the past occurrences of prosecutors lying, misrepresenting, and otherwise engaging in conduct ranging from shady to illegal, is automatically assuming that the prosecutor is on target and Mr. Manafort has lied.
Mr. Mueller has submitted a brief contending that he has lied, Mr. Manafort has claimed he did not. There has been no ruling on the facts of this matter, and many commentators have believed that the submission will be under seal, so the media and the people may never know what allegedly occurred.
I understand the tendency for many to automatically believe that, since he is investigating Mr. Trump, Mr. Mueller is high in the heavenly hierarchy and is perfect and above reproach; and that, by working for Mr. Trump in the past, Mr Manafort is consigned to either the eighth (fraud) or ninth (treachery) circle of hell. However, the presumption of innocence still, in theory, applies to accusations of lying to a prosecutor.
4
Mueller is playing 5 moves ahead 3-D chess while Manafort and Trump couldn't play tic-tac-toe without letting their opponent pick the middle square. Mueller is a shark and the Trump clique keeps dumping blood into the water thinking what a good strategy. Mueller is going to need a wheelbarrow to deliver all those indictments and I hope he dumps them soon.
10
The possibility that Trump will not pardon Manafort is as likely as the possibility that Trump will not ask for Jeff Sessions resignation - done deal. Given that, it makes sense for Manafort to pretend to cooperate with Mueller especially since his attorneys have an agreement to work with Trump's attorneys. His game is to obtain information on what evidence Mueller has and feed it to Trump. Now that Trump has answered written questions and Mueller has cancelled the immunity deal, we will see if Mueller was smart enough to feed misinformation to Trump. In a battle of wits, I would bet on Mueller rather than Trump. Mueller has a machine gun, Trump has a pea-shooter when it comes to brain-power.
5
If we are to speculate then how about:
British intelligence knew Manafort visited the Ecuadorian Embassy to meet Assange and informed Mueller. Why not, they're not in love with Donald.
Manafort was willing to gamble on a plea deal and a possible pardon knowing that he had information Trump didn't want him to share about his meeting with Assange so Manafort lied about meeting Assange and possibly other things.
Mueller is on the border of demonstrable collusion between Trump's campaign and Russia and is connecting the dots between Trump and Putin including through Manafort and confronted Manafort over some of his lies, including possibly his meeting with Assange.
The news of Manafort meeting Assange comes out. How strange that it comes out right now and Mueller's team does not leak, who could have leaked it to the Guardian?
Coincidentally the plea deal is off.
Manafort's best bet now is that Trump survives politically and can pardon him.
7
There's a perfectly good explanation for lying to the special prosecutor. He's in a position of nothing to lose; at his age he's facing the rest of his life in jail. Cooperating may lower his sentence but again, at his age, that may not mean much. Therefore, his only chance of seeing real sunlight again is a presidential pardon. But that's off the table if he cooperates; only "selling out" the investigation does it return.
I would think the prosecutors anticipated this and now have both where they want them. Mr. Manafort is now facing another trial and sentencing, no leniency for cooperating and lost his freedom for previous misbehavior. And it's unlikely Mr. Trump leaned anything his lawyers could not have figured out.
Mr. Trump protects only himself and it seems unlikely he'll risk impeachment proceedings to protect someone who has no more to give.
2
At least three witnesses can prove that Putin hacked the 2016 election:
1. Julian Assange
2. Paul Manafort
3. Donald Trump
Putin's status is at-risk because he has been lying to the Russian people. Putin will act to protect his position.
Manafort may be safe in federal prison. Julian Assange is not safe anywhere. Trump is still a Putin asset.
Manafort is more afraid of Putin than of the American justice system.
Assange should seek protection.
4
This is MAFIA behavior, so hypothesis #1 is of course correct. We are talking about a case of treason unprecedented in US history, so no consequence can weigh as heavy as the truth coming to light. Manafort docilely signalled Trump just how loyal he is to him and guess what: Trump WILL pardon him! Because if he does not, Manafort WILL ultimately tell the truth - an deal that does not need words. The American system seems to have fallen. A film noir has become reality and the Western World’s worst political nightmare.
3
He is cuing up for a pardon. Trump will not disappoint him.
1
@Sheila Berry Of course he will. A pardon means he cannot take the Fifth in a House hearing. It will get him out of Federal prison but not state prison. Trump can then be charged with obstruction if the investigation is ongoing. I see him dangling a pardon but not actually giving it.
4
Article leaves out the most likely explanation: Manafort is like Trump: they're both men who cannot not lie.
3
Sounds like Muller did not get the information he wanted to get.
So he is pressuring Manafort to tell the story that Muller wants to hear.
3
@Wes Evans, did you read this article???
4
Hypothesis 4: He held back incriminating info regarding Trump or his immediate family, hoping that he wouldn't get caught. The flurry of tweets from Trump regarding this latest charge against Manafort just supports this suspicion.
2
One thing I do not see mentioned in this article is the possibility that Manafort is taking a hit in exchange for some sort of arrangement to protect his family...especially his children.
Donald Trump would sell out his own children in a heartbeat. Perhaps Manafort is not the same sort of monster.
7
Paul, the President needs your continued loyalty in exchange for a promised pardon when the calendar turns to 2020. Specifically, his lawyers need to know what Mueller knows and what he is still trying to figure out. You are of immense value to the President while you are "cooperating" with Mueller and you will be rewarded by him.
I think the guy is probably a drunk. I don't know him, and I certainly don't claim to know, but it is a hunch.
When you ask the question, "What were they thinking" of a drunk, the same answer is almost always accurate: "Not Much."
On the subject of drunks, I just have to say I've met many, know many, and precisely as Bill W. says, most them have generally good character when their not drinking. However, there are some who will go to great lengths while sober to cover their drunk lives, and often it includes incredible self-delusion and occasionally dangerous tendencies.
On this subject, while I'm talking about it, I just want to say that I like every veteran that I've ever met, and understandably some of them become drunks. But I had occasion to cross paths with some mercenaries who became drunks. They were different than veterans. They were mean! I suspect they became mercenaries because they were mean, and when they became drunks they gave us all a bad rap.
These guys behind Trump are mean drunks if you ask me. What is a mean drunk? Honestly, I'm not joking about this: I once met an ex-mercenary that said one benefit if I joined their group would be that they could 'take care of' anyone that caused me any problems!
What!? I thought people like this existed only in the movies!
It still gives me shivers when I think about it. And no, his statement was not a joke.
Bad people exist. We don't want them running government!
6
All of the above seems to be answer. He was promised pardon in return for providing cover. He decided he'd take his chances in the state courts where he can probably manage to get a mistrial. Lies and deception are the natural way of doing things for this administration and its minions like Manafort. He'll be deemed a hero by the right for funneling information to Trump on what Mueller is up to. His actions already helped tell the world that Mueller knew more about what Manafort was doing than previously thought. That's exactly what they want at the WH so they can smear the investigation by weaving ever more lies. See the comment made by jlgold for more reasons why Manafort had every motivation to lie about lies about lying.
Innocent people don’t need to coordinate their stories. Innocent people simply need to tell the truth.
13
There is a simple explanation.
Like Trump, Manafort cannot open his mouth without having lies fly out. It is in the very fiber of their being. It is the only way they know how to communicate.
Lying has gotten them both this far, why stop now.
5
I understand that the Manafort lawyers have been collaborating with the Trump lawyers, and that Trump answered Mueller's questions in writing. Now we learn that Manafort is caught lying. How many of those lies are echoed in those written answers? Well played, Mr. Mueller.
9
It is widely assumed that Manafort worked for the Russian oligarchs alone and was, therefore, a Russian asset. For someone who had half a dozen US passports, and had applied for several more, it is just as likely that Manafort had broad support in the CIA. It is very unlikely that anyone can work abroad making multimillions, particularly for despots, a favorite clientele of American intelligence, and not come to the attention of the CIA.
It is upon the protection of the CIA that Manafort relies. The presidential pardon secured, the CIA can, he thinks, make the state prosecution “go away,” perhaps via hung jury as the recent Menendez corruption trial ended. Furthermore, he would have their protection from any assassination attempts by spurned oligarchs. I’ve always found it somewhat amazing that, having jilted Deripaska of millions, he didn’t end up dead a long time ago.
The culture of the CIA is consistent with Manafort’s conduct; he believes himself above the law and has no respect for checks and balances, the procedures of a democratic government. Everyone is corruptible, if not already so. Only that worldview is not applicable to Mueller’s team. There, Manafort has met his match.
1
@Cecelie Berry
Individual CIA members I have known have indeed behaved at times without sanction from the Agency, in the belief of tacit approval. This is an Achilles heel for the CIA, just as it is for other Govt. agencies. It can create chaos with the rights of innocent Americans who will have little recourse to safety from potentially dire results to both their welfare and lives. Rogue individuals who have worked with the CIA are often protected, or expect favoritism for heinous acts merely due to their one time use to the Agency, and handlers. My family were victims of this, and are lucky to have survived. I am sure this was not an isolated event, as the perpetrator bragged about both his former murders and immunity from any consequence.
I think there's an obvious scenario to explain Manafort's continued lying to the special counsel.
1. He and Trump agreed beforehand that Manafort would tell lies that would avoid implicating Trump and Trump would pardon him.
2. Manafort's attorneys, in their shared defense strategy, reassured Trump that Manafort was protecting him.
3. Trump, in his written responses to Mueller, reiterated Manafort's lies believing that he would get away with it given that their stories would agree.
Unfortunately for Trump and Manafort, it appears that Mueller has proof that Manafort was lying and therefore, has proof that Trump lied in his written responses. So, Trump may still pardon Manafort, but is likely to be facing perjury and witness tampering charges. The timing of Mueller's announcement that Manafort violated his cooperation agreement, coming immediately after Trump submitted his written responses to questions, strongly suggests that Mueller was waiting for Trump to fall into this trap.
8
My bet is that Manafort is praying that Trump fires Muller and then pardons him. In Monopoly speak, that is like holding both the Chance and Community Chest "Get Out Of Jail Free" cards.
4
Underestimating one's adversary is the worst possible strategy. Manafort and Trump may be reprehensible and unaccomplished, but my goodness are they clever. For you and I, being investigated and arrested and facing prison are signs of utterly failure. Not so for M & T. Mueller has flushed whatever he got from Manafort down the drain, and Manafort is left holding all the cards --- he doesn't care whether he goes to jail, or New York charges him, or any other consequence the legal system could hold over him. When Saddam Hussein was on the gallows ready to be hung, he spit on his executioners and called them cowards. Our system is capable of jailing sociopaths, but it is not capable of bending them to our will, our norms, or I stilling in them our fears.
2
There certainly is a good explanation and Trump has lots of it. MONEY! Perhaps also trow in some Russian Rubles and you end up with millions of reasons.
Am I speculating? Of course. Those who are following this historic moment would not dismiss it out of hand. We know all involved lack scruples.
1
What Was Paul Manafort Thinking? Hypothesis No. 1, of course. Manafort is banking on President Trump giving him a pardon to cover two keisters, the president's and, for a bonus, Manafort's own worried going-to-jail behind.
It's obvious why he lied, now that we know that his lawyer was talking to Trump's lawyer: He was finding out what Mueller knew, so it could be relayed to Trump. Kind of an inside mafia job, and it worked!
What more evidence does anyone need to understand the absolute corruption that Trump exudes? Not to mention narcissistic pathological lying personality disorder. Manafort and Trump are peas in a pod, and there are plenty more peas in there with them.
3
Manafort knows that Trump will pardon him, so why not stick it to mueller.
1
@NKTA It takes a person not grounded in reality to base their future on Trump's help.
1
He was thinking he could get away with it!
4
It has become fairly obvious that Trump's pals are conducting a coordinated campaign of lying to Mueller & the FBI. The BIG question is; is Trump or his lawyers doing the coordinating?
4
What was Paul Manafort thinking? Simple. One word. PARDON.
1
What was Manafort thinking, one word "pardon!"
A ray of sunshine in a bleak landscape - a probability that this pathetic player will go to prison for life. Thank you for this careful summation of the level of idiocy and corruption that comprise this administration.
3
...regardless of whether or not Manafort was 'thinking', could you imagine being one of the lawyers for Manafort? Sheesh, what a nightmare of a client.....
5
There is another theory. Paul Manafort simply doesn't know how to tell the truth. As far-fetched as this might have once sounded, it's starting to become clear that some people try to control situations by spouting brazen falsehoods. For them there is not such thing as objective truth. There are only stories that one tells to control the narrative.
5
When someone lies enough, they lose track of the truth.
4
Is the only crime Mr. Manafort guilty of lying to the FBI? Where's the "collusion" that somehow ties the Russian government to the Trump campaign?
@hm1342 - How did you miss the two trials? Manafort is guilty of several crimes.
1
@hm1342 what manafort lied about, his contacts with assange
1
If Manafort can get a pardon from Trump how quickly will he skip town? Those State prosecutors better get moving on cases against him.
1
On February 29, Paul Manafort sent Trump a written “pitch” document explaining how he should direct the campaign. His pitch was backed by a recommendation from Roger Stone. The very next week, Trump senior campaign staffer Sam Clovis told the team that “good US-Russia relations” were a goal of the campaign. The week after that George Papadopoulos, fresh off hearing Clovis describe the campaign’s desire for good Russia relations, first met with the London-based “professor” who claimed to have Russia connections. That was all in March. desire for good Russia relations, first met with the London-based “professor” who claimed to have Russia connections. .... Why did Paul Manafort lie? Because it increasingly looks like the origin of the plan to attack the United States through stolen emails, false media accounts, and social media pressure didn’t originate with Moscow, it came from Paul Manafort and Roger Stone....now if that isn't worth lying about to save your skin??"
3
I think it is really simple. It is likely that his life and the lives of his family have been credibility threatened by the Russians. He pled to avoid the cost of another trial and spied for Trump on the hope he will get a pardon. He is not an irrational actor.
2
So even at the worst possible time, why did Mr. Manafort fail to kick his lifetime habit of lying? Maybe the answer is a bit simpler--it's just his nature.
2
Protection of Trump and his dealings with Russia is the top job that Manafort is forced to perform.
He is gambling on a pardon. The more problems he creates for Mueller the more likely Trump will pardon him. It is his best option.
@William Stensrud It's Manafort's best option but not Trump's. He can still be subpoenaed with the Dem House and Trump can be charged with obstruction. Trump will protect Trump and a pardon does not do that. However, promising a pardon might.
Option 4: Manafort is lying to discredit the Mueller investigation and other witnesses. Pravda - oops I mean Fox News - will use this as further evidence that the special counsel has gone off the rails and nothing they say or do can be trusted. They are twisting arms and forcing defendants to make false statements.
Not sure why this aspect is not picked up - Fox is doing it already with the failed Corsi plea agreement.
1
The interactions between these teams of lawyers almost seems like ... collusion.
2
You know, I really don't care about why Mr. Paul Manafort acts the way that he does. This is just all the Donald Trump "distract them" scenario.
He's done the crimes, he's been convicted, lock him up.
When responsible authorities do this, it sets precedence that crime just flat out doesn't pay and that justice is inevitable. There is no better way for the justice system to flourish and protect our democracy.
Methinks there are plenty of left-wing "conspiracy" theorists here! It's a fascinating read, because the arguments presented are so well-reasoned and show a lot of thought, unlike the thoughtless craziness of many right-wing conspiracy theories (sex slaves in pizza parlors). But it's amusing and diverting because Mueller's team is so focused, so committed, so ethical that there have been no leaks and we, who wish desperately for this current administration to be thrown into the dustbin of history, spin wonderful tales to entertain us until the final report. And what I hope is that the final report is beyond our wildest dreams.
7
Mr. Litman might think of doing a follow-up piece now that we know that Trump and Manafort were indeed in communication through their attorneys.
2
What about the possibility of threats to family members? By some foreign power perhaps?
1
"The perils for all those participants in such a crass scheme would be enormous. If discovered, it would mean assured conviction for witness tampering and, if any of the intermediaries was a lawyer, disbarment. For the president, it most likely would trigger impeachment, and even conviction in the Senate could not be counted out. "
Probably correct, but colluding with Russia (which I believe did occur) was with enormous perils. The rules, the Trump crowd believes, do not apply to them.
1
I think Mueller had Manafort figured out as a mole long ago. Manafort has a long history of illegal actions and
So, perhaps Mueller was waiting for Trump to respond to the questions, which he just did. Plunk! Manafort gets zapped. Trump and his lawyers need to be concerned how much Mueller knew and when because joint defense privilege is likely gone and the crime-fraud exception may zap attorney-client privilege of communications between Manafort's (and Trump's) attorneys.
Maybe hindering the prosecution and going to prison is worth it if it means your family stays alive? Who knows what would happen to his wife and daughters if Manafort exposed the skeletons in foreign governments' closets. We've seen what Russia will do to neutralize threats.
We can assume that Mueller is smart enough to have known that details of his interrogation of Manafort would be passed along to Trump's lawyers, He could, therefore, feed Trump whatever information, true or false, he chose. Seems like a good way to set Trump up for a fall.
2
Given the, ummm, unsavory character and crooked pedigrees of Trump and Manafort, isn't this basically a desperate game of chance these two are playing? Manafort is playing a sort of double-agent in hope of staying out of prison (good luck with that), and Trump is dangling the possibility of "saving" him help as long as he plays by Trump's rules versus Mueller and keeps Trump's legal team fully informed. Both probably have losing hands. But longtime crooks always believe they will win in the end, no matter how tight the noose becomes.
1
One thing that interests me is McConnell's steadfast refusal to advance the Mueller protection bill as recently as yesterday. What on earth is HE thinking?
3
Read "The Scorpion And The Frog". That's it in a nutshell.
He's a con man, like Trump, and the rest of them. He's so tied up in the con he believes, like Trump, if you double down just one more time, you'll get away with it for a bit longer. That's what con men do, when their con has been discovered.
The other options open to cons, once they have been discovered (other than buying more time to try to keep the con going) is to leave town and disappear (not a likely option for Manafort at this point), or to die. Either suicide, or murder by another con man.
Or a pardon, if the con man believes the top con man will actually keep his word, and pardon him.
It's the life of a con man, sooner or later, the con will be exposed and come to an end. Until then, live the high life and take as much as you can for yourself.
if you look at Manafort, Trump, and the rest of them for what they really are, con men, it all adds up and makes sense.
So, Mueller was playing Go Fish when everybody else was playing poker? It would not surprise me. None of these people have the sense God gave fungus, tho entirely too many of them think more of themselves than is justified. Mueller well may turn out to be nothing more than another failed conman, who just never did figure out when to make for the door.
1
Standard practice - pay the witness to keep quiet. Do the time; walk out of prison with, oh, say, $100 million in this case.
Easy peasy. 100 mil is petty cash for all the people getting rich off Trump's "Chaos First!" policy.
1
One other possibility not laid out may be too obvious to mention, but it's green and it folds.
A man who has already sacrificed his name, his career and most probably his life can be motivated by how his family is taken care of.
1
Manafort may have had to lie, to tell Mueller what Mueller wanted to hear, in order to get a plea deal. He may, in particular, have given alleged details about Trump's personal involvement in something criminal. Then Trump's recent written answers to Mueller may have contradicted Manafort's lies in a way that Mueller could check. Not saying this is what happened. I am saying it is plausible.
I also note that just because Mueller says Manafort lied does not mean that he in fact lied. It's the way to bet, but Mueller could be wrong.
Trump seems to have all his bases covered as long as the GOP stays in control of the Senate and he is in the white house. What I am wondering about is why Trump will allow any election to take place in 2020? For national security reasons he has the power to suspend elections (a feature of the Patriot Act) until it is safe to continue. In the meanwhile the makeup of Congress will stay the same. Which could easily be for the rest of his life. This simple decision solves all of his problems and eventually he may think of it.
The Guardian newspaper reports that Manafort met with Assange inside the Ecuadorian embassy in London in the spring of 2016. Manafort denies ever meeting Assange.
Travel documents would easily establish if Manafort was in London at the time claimed by the Guardian. Also, diplomatic missions in London are extensively covered by CCTV. Given the interest in Assange's activity, whether he had entered the embassy or not is likely known.
1
I realize this is an Opinion piece, but it strikes me that we live more and more in a world of conjecture rather than being present to what is going on. We are teased endlessly with "what-if's" and waste our energy arguing these future HBO series plots.
Manafort is in jail. Now. His future truly is unknown. I wonder whether we can live with that uncertainty.
The fact that his team is in close communication with Trump's attorneys shows that his priority is to play for Team Trump in the hopes of a pardon to rather than to truly cooperate with Team Mueller in the hopes of getting less years in prison.
It's an unconventional play, but given his age it may be his best chance to not spend most of his remaining life in prison, at least in his estimation.
I think he’s waiting for a a pardon for one reason.
He is banking on the SCOTUS case to be argued Dec. 18th: Gamble vs. US. Orrin Hatch wrote a 44 page amicus brief defending the reverse of the “dual-sovereignty doctrine”.
If it gets reversed, then anyone Trump pardons for federal crimes can not be charged for the same crime by the states.
“If Hatch gets his way, however, a federal pardon would essentially block a subsequent state-level prosecution.”
Maybe getting Kavanugh in the seat so quickly was for this very reason.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/09/trump-pardon-orrin-hatch-supreme-court/571285/
8
Maybe Manafort would rather follow the advice Russia has given him about being loyal to Trump and the Russian agenda to take American down. He’s also most likely been told he will receive rewards like lots of $$$, pardons, and if necessary an escape route out of the country.
It’s better than threats of murder, Russians are so inclined to commit against the disloyal.
3
He's gotten away with lying his entire adult life. Why should he not believe he could get away with it this time? Clearly, he's used to dealing with people who lie for a living. Mueller is a whole different ballgame. Manafort undoubtedly has never dealt with someone who has a strong moral compass and doesn't deviate from it.
7
Maybe he fears Putin having someone kill him?
Chaos? It's Trumps go to plan. Muddied waters are hard to navigate and best of all find the guilty actor.
3
Litman's article and the clever comments from NYT readers could provide a concept document for an interactive TV (or Netflix) series, where, as each episode unfolds, viewers get to figure out motivations & possible next steps, unwrap the truth & lies, send their analyses in by email/text, and get reward points.
The title of the series could be "Really?" I offer this idea to any scriptwriter/producer who wants it. By the time it is created, President Trump might be looking for a post-Presidential job and he'd be the ideal host. Instead of "You're fired!" he could have fun saying "You're lying!"
Back to Manafort: My take (the psychological side) is that he is a compulsive liar. It is a kind of psychosis that a relatively logical person (or the rare ethical person) has difficulty understanding. Compulsive liars experience extreme psychic pain and humiliation when they tell the truth. It is like taking one's clothes off in public. So Manafort cannot help himself and literally can no longer even be of any help to himself.
I had a boss like this. She was incapable of telling the truth, even about small things, and when caught, she lied about what she had said, and lied about lying about it. I saw the pain. I also noticed that she kept getting promotions. It screwed up the work we were trying to do, but the damage done when someone gets into Manafort's position is scary.
3
I can't say it was a horrible play, even though it looks like it may not work. Now he shoots for the pardon.
It seems Mueller was caught off guard by not building certain language into the cooperation agreement. Perhaps there is some language in it that will enable Mueller to put more pressure on Manafort, but regardless, it sounds like this was a good lesson for prosecutors out there who are dealing with "cooperating" witnesses.
Admittedly, I doubt it is very often that a witness that flips still chooses to work with the party he or she flipped on.
Given that there is no other person, other than the president, that I know of, who can issue a pardon, I understand what Mueller has been attempting to do.
The above said, it is comical to think Trump would ever get away with pardons that are obviously given to help him escape culpability.
A heavy book is about to come down on Trump, and that book is called the Constitution.
2
Manafort lied because he didn’t want to do anything to jeopardize the prospect of a presidential pardon and thought he could get away with it.
If the Guardian’s source is correct and Manafort did indeed meet with Julian Assange at the Ecuadorian embassy in London in March 2016—the same month John Podesta’s email account was hacked by the Russians and the same month he joined the Trump campaign—he ties the campaign (and potentially the president) to Assange and likely to the WikiLeaks release of the Russian-hacked DNC emails. Admitting to that would be so devastating to Trump, the president could not possibly pardon him and survive he political fallout.
But by lying he underestimated both Mueller and the sophistication and reach of American and British intelligence services—which, according to numerous reports, are working cooperatively since both our countries have been victim to Russian cyber aggression. Like Michael Flynn before him, Manafort never paused to consider there might be surveillance tapes that would prove him a liar. So now he has scotched the prospect of the prosecutor’s recommendation of a lighter sentence AND made a presidential pardon that much harder for Trump to pull off.
And in the process of pulling Manafort’s plea deal Mueller managed to communicate to the president that he has irrefutable proof of what Manafort lied about. What is it they say about karma?
3
Donald sure hung around with "the best people."
3
You are so correct, Mr. Litman, that Manafort gambled big time and lost. Trump does not care about Manafort so if he dangled a pardon it was for one reason only-to give Manafort a reason to keep quiet. Now that a plea deal is off, Trump has no incentive to pardon Manafort-it is safer to keep him in jail than to set him loose where he might say anything.
2
Dear Mother of Jesus...
Mr. Manafort refused continuing to agree to crimes and violations he did not commit, how about that as a hypothesis?
The guessing game around the water cooler made it as an opinion piece at the NYTimes. This is sad actually.
1
@F1Driver He's being accused of lying; what does that have to do with agreeing (or not) to any other crimes?
3
@Reuven Don't fool yourself, this a miscarriage of justice against an American citizen. We should all be appalled.
Mueller is asking these subjects to confess to crimes they did not commit. They are being accused of lying to crimes unrelated to the Trump-Russia Collusion.
The ironic part of this investigation is that the Clinton campaign actually colluded with Russia to affect the 2016 Presidential elections. There is a wide and inviting judicial road of malfeasance committed by the Clinton campaign.
Agreed. Manafort isn’t the liar here. We are missing an opportunity to talk about how prosecutors force defendants to lie. They do it all the time.
2
Here’s the plausible explanation: Manafort is a liar. He’s been a liar all his life. He’s literally incapable of being anything other than a liar. He likely does not even know what truth is anymore. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
As long as the Republicans control the Senate Trump has no fear of ever being thrown out of office via impeachment. Our best hope to get the country back on track is to work toward the defeat of Trump in 2020. Moreover, an electoral defeat would surely also sweep out Republicans in the Senate and reinforce recent Democratic victories in the House. Manafort is just one more reason for the nation to dump Trump.
3
An excellent analysis, and congrats to Mr. Litman for stating the old have/eat your cake saying correctly. You can have your cake and then eat it. But as he rightly frames it, you cannot eat your cake and still have it.
1
Perhaps this means that Trump will not run in 2020. Manafort flipped, then was informed that Trump realized he couldn’t be re-elected and said “hang on for 2 years, and I’ll pardon you on my way out the door”.
2
If all are in cahoots before the arrest, one could easily set up a code conversation that would mean that the President would pardon everything. Such a conversation might center on an entirely different subject. A quick question about Manafort's roses, or a quick start of a conversation using a key word. With this code, Manafort could go ahead and do his own deals; but then lie like crazy to not reveal anything else.
What was he thinking? He gets a Trump pardon, flees the country and escapes state prosecution.
1
He was working both sides all along, folks. Really, this surprises you in the age of Shock du jour?
Mueller has been dealing with pathological liars and career criminals for 40 years. He has gamed out every scenario including Manafort and his attorneys sharing information with Trump. Mueller did not seek a nullification of Manafort's shared defense agreement with Trump 's lawyers for this reason. More over he understood that Trump and Manafort would mislead each other as pathological liars. In short Mueller knew they would not be able to keep their lies straight and would be laying traps for each other and themselves.
Trump and his gang are not merely corrupt but exceptionally stupid.
4
I honestly don't care that he "lied". It won't change people's minds in Trump if that's your hope.
Did Bill Clinton lie...did his wife lie?Does anyone doubt Russians put ads in Facebook and said no? But none of that changed hearts and minds. The internet is the wild west and a weapon this country also uses and denies through international espionage.
Your take seems to imply that people care enough about Manafort. Trump will pardon him and life goes on. Climate change (which is too late) the economy and illegal immigration are the immediate things people care about.
Manafort is just passing gossip....
3
Has to be a pardon. But I sure wouldn't want Trump to be the one my fate was depending upon.
2
There are something that he can not provide to Mr Mueller because of the DARK RUSSIAN guy is waiting for him upon he got out of the prison or even in prison. It seems he is in the solitary confinement statue.
Manafort is going to get a pardon anyway. What difference does it make?
Why? Because obviously laws are for little people.
1
Prediction: Manafort will do minimal jail time, loose most of his wealth, and walk free. After he is out, he will continue to earn a living as a "consultant" as payback for his fidelity. Our "system" simply doesn't work; we are being out-corrupted. The very idea that we can see, in advance, that Trump is thinking about pardoning Manafort and can do nothing about it . . . .
2
I think it's the old frog and scorpion fable. Why? It's just his nature.
He was thinking that maybe it would be a good idea if he didn't provide Mueller with evidence so damning that it would remove Trump from office, thereby putting back in place all those sanctions that had or would have hurt Russia and that Trump had stopped, and ticking Putin off to the point where he just might make an example of Mr. Manafort by removing him from existence like he has so many others.
Thinking that Trump is giving him pardon for lying.
Hypothesis No. 4: Pathological Liar
People have personalities, and some have personality disorders. Mr. Manaford (like Mr. Trump) has a history of unethical, exploitative, and manipulative behavior, grandomania, law-breaking, and philandering. Given that his personality is clearly on the psychopathic spectrum, how is it surprising that he keeps lying left and right?
2
It is a bitter irony that in the Vietnam war we had on one hand Mueller commanding a platoon of Company H, 2nd Battalion (“The Magnificent Bastards”), 4th Marines and its mission “to close with and destroy the enemy by fire and maneuver, or repel the enemy’s assault by fire and close combat”. He was awarded the Bronze Star, the Purple Heart and the Vietnamese Cross of Gallantry. On the other hand trump at the same time was immersing himself in the Manhattan party scene and cynically boasting that “fighting venereal disease was his Vietnam” A disgusting war coward, he deliberately evaded sacrifice not once but five seperate times in the Vietnam war ... a draft dodger par excellence. Over 50,000 americans sacrificed their lives as he carried on his self-serving hedonistic life style with absolutely no regrets or second thoughts.
4
Given the recent leak of US charges against Assange, I wonder if a plea deal with him is on the horizon. Assange has no loyalties and must be itching to get out of that embassy. He could be the glue that ties together all the missing links among Putin, Manafort, and Trump.
Keep in mind this is all in addition to whatever is happening with Michael Cohen in NY state. At this point, I cannot envision a scenario where Trump is not indicted in either NY or by the feds.
3
We're overthinking this. From the perspective of 2017, when we didn't know a lot of what we know now (e.g., the flip in the House, Cohen's apparent cooperation), it's fairly certain that if Manafort tells ugly truths, he knows he risks everything: he completely forecloses the option of a pardon, and he provokes the ire of the Russians with whom he may or may not (but almost certainly did) deal illegally, and which could have deadly consequences. He's still open to state prosecution, but that's a wash because he's open to that either way. If he lies, he may risk prison, but he likely avoids any potential Russian retaliation, and he preserves the possibility of a pardon. For a man like Manafort, there are potential gains for lying, and no up-side at all to telling the truth. We don't even have to speculate on potential collusion between his lawyers and Trump's — it may change the details but it doesn't alter the calculus. I'm just not convinced that divining his motives is so complicated.
2
Does the word "pardon" mean anything to you?
You misunderstand narcissists/psychopaths. They simply do not consider themselves bound by the same rules/mores as the rest of us. They're superior. And sometimes psychpaths lie when it's not even in their best interest to do so. They just cannot help themselves.
5
I beg your pardon?
4
Occam's Razor: Arrogant and over confident leads to stupid.
4
Premise number 1: Manafort lied.
Did he?
Do they make $1300 prison jumpsuits?
1
When I screwed up in my teen years job as a baking assistant, the head baker would ask me, "What were you not thinking?" To this day I find it the most useful question when reflecting upon poor outcomes, far more illuminating than, "What were you thinking?"
1
Lying is part of Manafort’s DNA. He’s not even aware he’s doing it.
3
Mr. Manafort's choices are confusing to those of us who don't have a clue what information/proof either Mr. Mueller or Mr. Manafort have. All we know is that Mr. Manafort, at this point, is down a few lost stressful years and most of his wealth plus the risk of spending the rest of his life in jail and possibly the risk of illegal harm to him and his family. So what's he after? Is it being free, safe and very rich in a year or two and does he have information/proof (which Mr. Mueller doesn't) that he thinks can get him there. Perhaps we'll see.
2
There's another explanation, though it does not fit within Mr. Litman's rational framework.
Manafort, like all these utterly shady characters, is addicted to lying. Completely. Hopelessly. Shamelessly. Addicted.
8
I have to believe he is throwing in with Trump (a risky proposition at best) believing he will get a full pardon after the 2020 election.
No, it doesn't save him from state charges, and lord knows this man deserves to die in jail, but none of the other options seem even remotely plausible.
2
Most likely Trump is funneling Mannafort's family money (or promised it). Paul knows it. If Paul continues lying, the money keeps coming. If he tells the truth, the money stops.
3
Another interesting question to consider is how long Team Mueller knew they were being lied to...or being played by Manafort and Team Trump. If they knew this early on, and continued the charade anyway, it would suggest they Team Mueller may have also being playing it back in the other direction. My guess is that Team Mueller was well aware of what was happening fairly early on. It remains to be seen how productive the arrangement was, but it gets more and more interesting...I would not be too surprised to see some ground-shaking revelations coming forth in the near future!
1
There’s an old story where the king has sentenced a man to die. The man tells him that he should not be killed because he has magic powers and can teach the king’s horse to talk. The king, intrigued by the idea of having talking horse, asks how long it will take and the man responds, “one year”. The king agrees to suspend his sentence for a year but firmly declares that if his horse doesn’t talk by then, the man will die. A friend of the man asks him “What are you thinking? You can’t teach a horse to talk?” and the man replies “Who knows what will happen in a year? The king might die, or I might die, or the horse might talk.” Manafort is stalling and hoping for a talking horse.
6
Manafort lies compulsively for the same reason as Trump. He has no ethics and no soul.
These are sick people.
7
Manafort’s attorney is the key to understanding this: He is free to communicate with Trump’s attorneys. Pardon trumps Plea. Next - who will the Russians Trump?
I'm no former US attorney, nor a lawyer.
But what seems most plausible is #1, expectation of a pardon, without explicit communication between Manafort and the White House. Who needs such communication when Trump is tweeting out his approval of Manafort "not flipping"?
There may very well be a pinch of #2 and a big dollop of #3 in the mix as well.
Why would Trump want Manafort to spill the beans? That would surely be the result of the pardon, because being pardoned removes the possibility of refusing to testify. Mueller might not like it but not because of the pardon itself . Perhaps because he couldn't use the information to squeeze others . Who knows.
But if the pardon is excluded as a factor, other equally impossible alternatives become possible. The most surprising would be that Manafort has nothing to sell. or at least nothing new. There is some value to Mueller in being able to check others , but maybe not enough to make a deal that would be meaningful to Manafort.
If that is so, Manafort may have been making up things in the simple hope that his fictions would have more value than the truth. Or at least perhaps sheet delay itself. That's highly unlikely. Well, even more unlikely. Especially if the truth, though substantial, were not necessary to Mueller.
That brings up another insane possibility , the kind of possibilities we are working with anyway. Perhaps this is Mueller's last squeeze. He may have received most of what he wants but he wants more. Why not claim , especially if Mueller suspects it is so,that Manafort has been lying . That would explain why the list of particulars has yet to be filed . There may be no particulars to file. Mueller ay believe it is worth the effort (though of doubtful ethics, something for which he has been praised by some, criticized by others).
Don't call me crazy.
1
The main reason Manafort's lawyers kept Trump's lawyers in the loop of what type of questions Mueller's team was asking Manafort was so they could collude and keep their lies straight and consistent with each other.
Lucky for the country, Mueller already knew the truth and caught Manafort and will also catch Trump in his written responses.
It is not an accident that Mueller waited until Trump submitted his lies in writing so he is already caught in Mueller's web.
Trump just keeps adding to his myriad of future obstruction of justice charges.
Manafort is just like Trump- a criminal and a pathological liar.
They also are delusional and think they are the smartest people and can scam everyone including Mueller.
The reality is quite the opposite.
Prisons are full of people that thought they were so smart they would never get caught.
6
He must think he's safer in jail than out of it. Oligarchs/Putin on the outside, prisoners on the inside. Flip of a coin.
1
Lies, fake news, complete baloney surrounding just about everything we hear about, read about, talk about...The world seems to have simply fallen apart at the seams. Climate change
with its major storms, fires, floods, thousands of people fleeing their homes in 'caravans', companies going out of business, mass
unemployment...need I go on? The world, at least in the newspaper, is falling apart. There is no end to it all. I remember jokes and cartoons about people with signs saying 'The End of the World Is At Hand' and it looks like it's not a cartoon anymore.
Take heart, my friend. It’s only the end of the human world (and a number of other species now living).
However, the Earth itself will continue to spin and will in time heal itself, and will be beautiful and abundant, with new species and geographic features we can’t even imagine.
Man rose because of his egocentrism and will perish by the same fate.
May I recommend “A Canticle for Leibowitz” by Walter Miller? He gets it just right.
Remember when we used to argue politics, not criminals here? Ah, the good old days.
6
Occam's Razor.
Sometimes, we just are not very smart, and no amount of tailoring will help.
63 million people voted for a con man. So the idea of this one guy not being very intelligent, should not be a stretch.
Do we really have to go into 50 Shades of Why?
1
@M
It appears that most of the 63 million probably knew the country was being conned. And didn't nor don't now care.
It's just unbelievable where we are now.
Thank you James Comey and Jill Stein.
No too complicated. He's playing the game, sending info on the investigation to the White House, and will be rewarded with his pardon.
So, tell me: When do we cut to the chase and repeat the electric question of some 45 years ago: "What did the president know; and when did he know it?"
4
Manafort is also acting like a Dotard - an old person, especially one who has become weak or senile.
Throw the book at him and Lock Him Up!!
If Dotard Trump offered Dotard Manafort a pardon, then charge Trump with witness tampering.
4
Manafort is gambling that The Donald will pardon him.
2
One last scenario, he's lied so much, he doesn't recall or really know the truth any longer....Could be...
1
So Manafort wants to play "hardball" with Robert Mueller....Manafort was found guilty of income tax evasion. If Manafort filed jointly with his wife (and she signed the forms), Robert Mueller should indict Manafort's wife for income tax evasion as well. Then we'll see what kind of "tune" Manafort plays.....
2
Manafort was probably expecting to be pardoned, anyways.
These people have been lying their entire lives.
2
I go with all three theories. 1.) He thought he would get a full pardon from Trump on all counts, and forgot that POTUS tends to throw even his loyalest fans under the bus when they prove inconvenient. 2.) He is afraid of being assassinated by the Russians for what he knows, which is not an unreasonable fear considering that they like to poison people. 3.) He is a stupid and narcissistic gambler who really never thought that he would get caught, overplayed the game and simply ran out of cards.
2
Manafort tried to pull another Timoshenko. She was brought down in Ukraine by just these Manafort Methods and Russian intelligence.
Did the same thing to Clinton. Through the Russians and wiki leaks.
Manafort is expecting a pardon.
To continue your bridge analogy, the bidding is at 4 no Trump, dummy has no aces, and Mueller doubled. Sounds like down 4 to me...
For some folks, lying is a lifestyle.
1
With all due respect to Mr Litman , who is as knowledgeable on the subject of the Mueller investigation as anyone, there is one flaw in his hypothesis #1 : Donald Trump’s empire, including the people who surround him , has been built on a series of lies. They don’t know how to do anything else , frankly but lie and subvert to their own political advantage. Mr Litman’s hypothesis would be airtight if we were considering that the person involved has carried within him a sense of conscience, and is aware of the law that is written within every human heart, a law that knows right from wrong .
That is not what we are dealing with here; this president will do anything to save himself, and Paul Manafort , who has been closely linked to Donald Trump both in ideology and modus operandi, will very likely do the same in order to survive.
And if this president truly believes as he has publicly stated ,that he could get away with murder, how much more plausible would it be for him to believe that he can get away with lies and subversion in this situation?
A pardon is what both Mr. Manafort and Mr. Trump need . Mr Litman‘s analysis is based on the presumption of a person who respects/ knows the rule of law and lives with a conscience . Donald Trump and Paul Manafort possess neither .
4
We're looking at the problem from Mr. Manafort's perspective.
Is there any other perspective that might make these events make sense?
This is a dandy opportunity for wild conspiracy theories. :)
For example, perhaps one of Mr. Manafort's or President Trump's lawyers has a conscience and wanted to produce evidence of wrongdoing. Okay, it's thin, but as I said: wild conspiracy theories.
Who BENEFITS from this turn of events AND could have an opportunity to bring it about?
I tend not to truck in conspiracies, but I think this all whiffs of darker forces at play. The behavior of so many is bewildering unless we step back and connect dots. Why did Justice Kennedy up and retire as he did? Why did all Republicans end up voting for Kavenaugh? And all of them rammed through a tax bill that trounces the national debt and gives nearly all of its benefits to a fraction of the top 1% earners. And nearly no one criticizes Trump. And McConnell refuses to protect the Mueller probe. And now Corsi and Manafort and Stone are willing to go to jail for life rather than spill the beans? Fishy. What if all of these players have been given huge carrots and even bigger sticks by shadowy players who benefit from the trillions of dollars flowing where they want? This isn’t implausible. Manafort’s family is likely threatened. Same with McConnell and Kennedy. That is fair explanation of all this craziness.
8
@Feldallen
Oh get a grip on it. Kennedy didn't just "up and retire". He's old and there has been speculation about his retirement for several years and it absolutely made sense that he would want to retire while Republicans would have control over who replaced him. No one who has been paying attention was surprised by his retirement.
Why did Republicans end up voting for Kavanagh? Because they're Republicans and he's Republican.
Why did they ram through that farce of a tax break? Because they're Republicans and that's what they do.
You're so intent on finding conspiracies that you are missing the obvious. The problem with this is that while you are looking for boogie men in the dark you're ignoring the very real outrages being perpetuated by these people right out in the open.
1
Why not all three?
The poker situation seems quite likely: either Manafort does not cooperate, and gets life in prison, or he pretends to cooperate and has, say, a 10% chance that Mueller believes his lies; and if Mueller doesn't, there is still a pardon for federal charges. It's entirely possible that going down in history as part the biggest conspiracy in the history of the country and facing possible assassination by Russia make that gamble more appealing than spilling everything.
1
A rational, logical thought process can be safely dismissed out of hand for anybody that ever thought paying $15,00 for an Ostrich coat was a good idea.
This is a man who was up to his neck in debt to Russian oligarchs and was advising corrupt Ukrainian politicians, not exactly a road map of stellar decision making.
The hubris and mendacity of this man is off any known chart, so trying to pinpoint an exact motive for why he would do such a reckless thing is pointless. It's simply the totality of who he is.
People will keep running the same play over and over until it doesn't work anymore, just look at Trump.
For Manafort, however, this finally could be the end of the line unless Trump pardons him, which he could very well do.
6
One presumes there is a strategy related to the lying.
Perhaps, but it's a sure thing that craven deception and swaggering hubris are at the very core of Manafort's being.
It's just who he is.
5
The scheme set up between Manafort and Trump is similar to the one with Scooter Libby. This involved the WMD lie by president Bush, Cheney, and Rove. Scooter sat quietly in his cell and in the last days of the regime he was pardoned.
The only way around this pardon is stiffer state laws. (10th Amendment .) A conviction in the state of New York, for example, cannot be pardoned by the president acting for the federal government. Laws need to be clarified to assure state sovereignty.
3
Scooter Libby was not pardoned by GW Bush, much to Cheney’s dismay. He was pardoned by Trump, and sadly it wasn’t the end of that regime.
1
I think that 1.) Mr. Manafort lies by nature, and 2.) he has nothing but contempt for those who would hold him accountable. Much like his former boss.
5
Plea deal was a was a complete "fake" on Manafort's part. Pretend to cooperate. Buy time. In "cooperating" get important information to Trump and his legal team. Get your pardon. Gets info to Trump and he does not go to jail (at least until the state charges gets to him). By the time he gets to trial in state courts he will have become an "invalid" and keep continuing trial due to medical reasons. I know Mueller is smart enough to out wit this, but I don't know how.
3
It totally makes sense now - Manafort copped a plea so he could feed Trump and his lawyers information on Mueller's line of questioning and tactics. Brilliant!
Now just wait for it - Trump's payback, the pardon.
3
I disagree. What was hard to explain was Manafort's refusal to make a plea deal.
Claiming he'll cooperate and then telling lies are just a continuation of his refusal to cooperate. THAT is what needs to be explained.
If we knew the nature of the lies, it might be easier to know what the explanation is. But I think it's retribution from Russians.
Given how available the information was that convicted him of crimes in his first trial—which he must know now—that's the only thing bad enough for the absolute refusal to cooperate.
3
The assassination hypothesis is my favorite especially so since Manafort's change of heart occurred after the Skripal poisonings. Putin has had remarkable success with assassinations over a period of many years.
Bill Clinton's rancid dealings while in office continue to affect his party. This time it is his pardon of Marc Rich back in the day, a tax evader who, as far as anyone could tell, had no good claim for clemency. Trump's pardon power seems absolute, so a pardon of Manafort could only be resisted from moral high ground. Mr. Clinton took that from us years ago. Thanks, Bill.
Cooperate and go to jail for 15 years and a pardon is unthinkable. Don't cooperate and go to jail for life and hope Trump loses in 2020 and gives him a pardon. What would you do?
1
The big question I have is why on Earth would Mueller, or *any* prosecutor for that matter, not include a stipulation that any prior joint defense agreement between the target's lawyer and all attorneys for all other parties involved in the investigation be severed in the cooperation agreement??
All of the former federal prosecutors who routinely appear on cable news seem to have no other explanation for this other than, 'well, nobody thought anything like that would ever be necessary'.
Just in case it's not plainly obvious by now, when dealing with the career lying slimeballs that trump has surrounded himself with, making any assumption that any one of them will do what's right of their own volition is a losing bet.
1
Manafort and his corrupt associates may not be rocket scientists, but they make a living "planning stuff" that gets politicians elected and ultimately enriches the offshore bank accounts of said unscrupulous politicians as well as their obscenely rich sponsors who rely on them to keep the cash spigots open. The real power players, who shape our rules and regulations, are international in their reach and influence. They are accustomed to getting their way, and Manafort knew this long before his conviction. Isn't it likely that Manafort and his "sponsors" planned for the likelihood of a conviction, making it unnecessary for his lawyers and Trump's lawyers to illegally "tamper" with the star witness, during his supposed cooperation and incarceration ? Are we witnessing part of a plan, and is the appointment of Mr. Whitaker a part of that plan?
2
There is little reason to think that Trump won't pardon Manafort. Trump has nothing to fear from impeachment. Impeachment does not mean removal from office (see Bill Clinton), and that's what matters to Trump. He cannot be shamed, he does not feel remorse, he does not accept responsibility. The dishonor that would come with impeachment means nothing to Trump. He would relish it and use it as a sword of grievance, plotting revenge on any senator that voted against him. Impeachment is a punishment only for those who accept it as such. Trump never will.
3
possibilities include:
- He's a serial liar only out to protect himself (much like Trump)
- He's assuming he'll get a pardon no matter what
- He's afraid of giving information to Mueller for his own or family's safety, either from Trump or the Russians
Or, a combination of any or all
I totally agree with jlgold. Furthermore a piece like this has an effect of covering for Trump in the collusion conspiracy. Manafort is simply running cover in reliance upon a pardon. This is bolstered by the secret meetings between the Manafort and Trump lawyers. Wake up!
2
It's looking like 'collusion' of Manafort, Assange and the Russians is becoming clearer every day. And Trump lawyers 'sharing information' with Manafort lawyers is the icing on the cake. Trump's first reaction to anything or anyone that contradicts him is anger, so I somehow think he might be too angry with Manafort to pardon him, especially if he drags Donnie Jr. into trouble. Pass the popcorn.
1
Why not both 1 and 2. Manafort lies because that's what he does and then his lawyers make sure that Trump and probably others in this tight conspiracy know exactly what lies Manafort has told. Trump and his cohorts in treason then answers the Special Prosecutor's questions in a way not to conflict with Manafort's lies. This earns him a pardon, probably in two years.
Hypothesis No. 3: The Bad Gambler is my choice.
1
Even ten years in prison is practically a life sentence for a man Manafort's age. If he wants to have any real life out of prison, a pardon is his only hope. If may be a very forlorn hope, but it is all he has got. Hence he kept a line of communication open to Trump even when he was theoretically a hostile witness, spilling the beans to Mueller.
Manafort probably realizes that Trump is indifferent to anyone but himself; but he also knows that Trump is impulsive and might--just might--pardon him on his last day in office.
1
The comm between the attorneys for Manafort and Trump sounds like obstruction to me.
"Eat his cake and (still) have it"--finally someone who uses the phrase correctly instead of the common and nonsensical have his cake and eat it.
1
Easy! He’ll get a pardon! Doesn’t have to cooperate with anyone, doesn’t have to go to prison! Home free.
This is a mob-like situation. They are less afraid of financial and criminal penalties, more of being killed by Putin.
Putin has demonstrated his ability to kill those who cross him. If you were them, wouldn't you be concerned, for yourself and your families?
3
Actually, there is a perfectly good (i.e., morally bad, but perfectly logical) reason for why Manafort would do this. It was established in an article published shortly after this editorial (so it was a fact of which the editorial writer may not yet have been aware).
Manafort was funneling information from the Mueller interviews to Trump. This explains why Manafort would try to blow the cooperation deal:
1) Trump tells him, "Look - go ahead and cooperate, but don't give anything up. Meanwhile, you come back here and tell me what Mueller's asking about, and what he's working on, and then..."
2) "When Mueller goes to Court saying you blew the deal, and seeking the higher sentence, I pardon you (or commute the sentence)."
Actually, this makes complete sense, and I can't imagine that this is not the case.
And, it sure sounds a lot like obstruction of justice. I hope our incoming Congress will look into this by way of hearings.
1
Occam's Razor: Hubris. Manafort still believes he is above the law and doesn't believe he needs to submit to Mueller or anyone else. He's never had to before and its served him well, why should he now?
How about he’s just as delusional and incapable of telling the truth just like Trump.
1
Easy answer: he’s a crook who is incapable of telling the truth, period.
1
I vote for all three.
Other readers of this piece have done a good job at questioning the reasoning behind it, but I would like to dwell on only Hypothesis #2; I believe the discounting of this particular narrative naive. Mafias whether Italian, Jewish, Russian, operate within a closed system of bargains, blood bargains. You borrow money, you pay it back, or you forfeit your life. It's a rather basic idea. My friend Osborn Andreas, eldest brother of the famous Duane Andreas, made such a bargain, and ended with two bullets in his head. It's not just fictional stuff from a spy novel, Mr. Litman.
But what I find a more significant error in your thinking is your idea that a pardon would be a disaster for President Trump. Specifically that it would lead to impeachment. Like most other commentators you use the term impeachment as if it were a synonym for removal from office. Impeachment for Trump --please allow me to warn you--is Br'er Rabbit's briar patch. It is something devoutly to be wished. Impeachment has never worked. cannot work, and it's consequences are most likely to add even more drama and power to him.
No, Mr. Litman, there are many good explanations for why Manafort lied to Mueller. And it may be all of the above.
1
An unexplored area in all this are the interlocking "joint defense agreements" among the witnesses, defendants, and the White House. The current popular conspiracy theory is that Manafort made each of his moves purposely, with the goal of appearing to cooperate while sharing the special prosecutor's questions with the White House. Mr. Litman makes a powerful argument against this—that it was predictable that the special prosecutor would cancel the plea agreement and then disclose the lies and the truth. Litman argues that no rational group of alleged conspirators would do this. This is where Mr. Litman errs (and he seems to acknowledge this)—it could well be that Manafort, the White House, and the whole gang are bold, but far from rational. They, as Sterling Hayden's Col. Jack D. Ripper said in 'Dr. Strangelove:' "They have neither the time nor inclination for strategic thought."
I vote for the reckless incompetent gambler scenario, and am enjoying the rare satisfaction of seeing a white collar criminal in a cell.
1
What was he thinking? He was doing what he and people like him (e.g., Trump) do all the time, survive according to their rules of law. He/they don't care about the law or what's decent and moral, all they care about is their greed for power, financial gains and control. I'm not sure they even care about political and social issues - they are concerned about maintaining control. That is why it is critical for all eligible voters in this country to keep coming out in full force to vote (at the national, state and local levels) against this dangerous and damaging mode of operation that is slowly permeating this country. We are quickly going down hill and it needs to be stopped using the system that was put in place by the founders and other moral leaders.
4
Whitey Bulger.
4
Give nothing up. Get sentenced. Trump pardons him. If it works, Roger Stone, Jerome Corsi will all play the same game. Now Manafort's only problem is the Russians....
2
He lied to protect the Tump children and therefore his pardon.
1
If Manafort is such a liar, would he lie to "get" Trump so Mueller would get him a lighter sentence?
News of the day is Manafort - London/Assange
2
All together now:
Lock him up!
Lock him up!
Lock him up!
Lock him up!
2
What is Mueller thinking?
2
Habitual liar was the campaign chair for habitual liar - birds of a feather flock together.
Everyone lies.
What is Mueller supposed to be a holy man or something, everyone lies, just ask Hillary and Bill.
1
Or perhaps he is just "bad people" a la the op-ed of Michelle Goldberg yesterday.
2
Manafort lied to prosecutors because he, like Trump, is a rich white guy who is certain the rules don’t apply to him.
3
Boy, do I miss my man, "no drama" Obama.
9
You ever heard of Icarus?
Impeachment in the Senate??? What could you possibly be thinking????
1
@Carolyn C
Please re-read your copy of the U.S. Constitution.
Articles of Impeachment are brought by and voted in the House, which is now in control of the democrats.
Is that passes, then it goes to the Senate for a vote on conviction.
Trying to figure out what Manafort was thinking is aiming at the wrong target.
The question should be, what was his lawyer thinking? No one in Manafort's position does any of this --- stall, deny, work out a plea deal, then lie and bring the whole thing crashing down --- except under advice and direction from his attorney. What defense lawyer would continue representing his client under these circumstances, unless he was in agreement with and directing the whole charade? You don't do what Manafort just did behind your lawyer's back and still have him as your lawyer.
So, for me, the question is not what was Paul Manafort thinking, it is what was Kevin Downing thinking? From this perspective the answer is obvious and most of the pieces fall in place: Downing has been in communication with Trump's lawyers under a joint defense agreement, something that is legal but highly unusual once a defendant has struck a plea deal. The fact that Downing and Trump's lawyers maintained this agreement even after the plea deal was struck makes it obvious that both sides saw the arrangement as mutually beneficial. Trump's team gets inside information on the Mueller probe, Manafort's team gets to have private conversations with Trump's lawyers, thus circumventing the problem of communicating with Manafort in solitary.
Manafort's lawyer has a pardon lined up. There is no other plausible explanation. Manafort lied knowing that whatever sentence he's given won't matter. He's a free man.
2
Hasn’t anyone thought that someone around DT might be giving Manafort a promise of taking care of his family financially even though his finanacial assets have been greatly reduced and he might be willing to trade that no matter going to jail. If he cooperated and got a lesser sentence (without the lying to Mueller) - he still would be financially broke, so this way at least his family might have some money.
I believe Hypothesis No #1 is correct. Here is why.
Manafort is expecting a pardon from Trump. Mueller knows this. Manafort knew he was going to get charged with crimes but tried to minimize the number of charges hence the plea deal. In Manafort's and Trump's minds, having fewer convictions made it more likely that a presidential pardon will be tolerated as opposed to Manafort having a truck load of convictions.
4
I would not want to be a trump associate counting on getting a pardon, unless I had some enormous leverage over him that would guarantee that he not throw me under the bus.
4
Even before Muller doubted Manafort's veracity and intent, the special prosecution team had to guard against this possibility of double-dealing. I still have faith that all the facts will be revealed and that there will be more convictions and guilty pleas. About the pardons, lets wait and see how much damage the President is willing to inflict on the office.
1
@Lawrence trump obviously does not care how much damage he inflicts on the office. trump is for nothing but trump, trump, trump.
Manafot is a crook to the very core. He is trying to destroy OUR United States of America and the world.
He must spend the rest of his life in prison. If not, and/or if The Con Don "pardons" him I would bet he is not long for this world.
4
There’s an angle to the assassination scenario that this author leaves out: Manafort’s children.
He might have accepted the plea deal thinking it unlikely anyone would make an attempt on his life and perhaps not much caring if they did. Then later he might have reflected that the Russians didn’t scruple to try to bump off Yulia Skripal in retaliation for her father’s sins, and decided he better implement some damage control measures. There may even have been a specific threat.
As for this sounding like something out of a Le Carré, maybe so. But then we’re talking about a government (Russia’s) that shoots journalists in the street, spikes people’s tea with cesium and paints suburban doorknobs with nerve agents.
5
@Aaron Walton
I thought the same thing, but then this all assumes that Manafort would put his children's interests - actually, their *lives* - ahead of his own.
Like Deepthroat said in “All the Presidents Men”. “The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.”
1
Manafort's behavior is either that of an idiot or that of a person who has received assurances of a pardon. Based on your article this evening, he is doing more than lying; he is cooperating with the Trump team. His lying and cooperation ensure a lifetime in prison unless he receives a pardon. It is almost inconceivable that he would risk both lying and providing information to Trump unless he believed he had assurances of a pardon.
3
He was thinking PARDON.
2
Is is obviously no coincidence that shortly after SC Mueller received that written answers form the self declared stable genius in the White House, they declared that Manafort's plea deal is null and void.
The whole world already knows that lying 24/7 is the M.O of this president and his sycophants within the administration.
In the history of this country - as far a known - there was never such a gang of liars and and greedy self promoters which was so obviously in cahoots with an enemy of the US, mainly to further enrich themselves and their mishpocha with shady foreign money.
Welcome to the Banana Republic of the USA. May it die a sudden death with the major actors being locked up.
2
Please, no reason or advantage? Committing legal suicide has unlimited upside. Manaforts attorneys are sharing word for word information to Trump, 24/7, allowing Trump to sit on the sidelines and lob acquisitations against someone investigating him with zero consequence.
A pardon is coming for Christmas for sure.......
How evil
4
@John M
A pardon for Manafort right now, with a Democratically controlled House that has dozens of members just chomping at the bit to bring articles of impeachment, is not a smart move.
If there's a pardon, it would come shortly after the 2020 election, whether trump wins or loses. The same applies if trump doesn't last that long and pence steps in.
Look at the other headline on the front page today - His lawyers told trump what he was lying about. Those lies no doubt are in the written responses submitted to Mueller by team traitor
This was CLEARLY an attempt to coordinate fake stories with the crime boss. It is obviously more obstruction of justice.
Blew up in their faces like a Wile E Coyote cigar.
2
One of Trump’s “best people”.
3
Manafort & Trump are twin Mafiosos. Liars. Manipulators. Money launderers. But regardless of how they go down, they will go down. Those types always sink. Maybe they won’t sink together but they will. Trump won’t pardon Manafort without a big fat reason for personal gain and even then it will be a smoke screen which will catch him red handed on the other side. These kinds of guys “eat alone”...me, myself and I. Their narcissism eats them alive.
2
Option 2 makes the best sense. Putin demands loyalty of bought-and-paid-for turncoats like Manafort.
"Manafort’s Lawyer Said to Brief Trump Attorneys on What He Told Mueller". I'll take door number 1....
3
What he's thinking is this...he will get a Pardon from POTUS Trump, and, of course he will...Maybe then again, maybe Mueller has a way around that???
1
Best explanation of all for Manafort... Money and freedom via pardon. Just like the mob.
2
"What Was Paul Manafort Thinking?"
Pardon?
1. Liars just lie. It’s a lifestyle you don’t just step away from. 2. Mueller is far from stupid and has been working with states’ AGs. Manafort has already admitted guilt on state crimes. Mueller doesn’t have to charge anybody with all crimes at the Federal level. Some charges can be held to be presented only at the state level, no matter what happens with the Gamble issue. Counting on Hatch’s amicus brief is futile, but it’s Manafort’s Hail Mary pass. 3. We’ve seen the Russians murder a few people in countries other than Russia, in vile frightening ways. Why would it be far fetched for such as Manafort to be afraid of such a fate?
2
It is not that complicated. Liars lie.
good. he can rot in prison. he and his ilk, certainly deserve it. now...if only trump could join him.
1
It's a pardon combined with services rendered to the oligarch's favorite president, trump. He'll avoid jail and get himself back in Derepaska's good graces
What was he thinking? : Presidential pardon
1
1. I am sure they could kill him in jail.
2. He may be stupid enough but I doubt it. He got away with money laundering, profiteering, treason and breaking other laws for for a minimum of 2 decades. He is not that stupid.
3. The most likely case is the obstruction / pardon theory.
1
Manafort seems to be a very dim bulb, but perhaps he has made the calculation that he is safer in jail and just making things up, compared to what Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs might do to him.
1
Promise of a presidential pardon seems like it would be a very good explanation. Then there would be no jail time. In fact, the threat of jail time is greater if the President doesn't offer a possible pardon than any plea arrangement that the Special Counsel could possibly offer. This is the constitutional crisis the country is facing at the moment - the President vs what he has called the "deep state", previously known as the US Government with the grid-locked Congress predictably allowing the crisis.
Litman’s analysis misses the money angle. Under the cooperation deal Manafort gave up all his property and money in a civil forfeiture. Pardoning him would not affect the civil forfeiture. So he would be left penniless if he cooperates. If he can keep some money he’ll cooperate. If not he’ll wait for a pardon coming after the 2020 elections.
2
Manafort must first deal with the imminent threat; for which pardon is the only possible way out, and for which lying is a necessary prereq (but perhaps - ultimately - not sufficient [because DJT has no loyalty to anybody]). As for the state prosecution threat ... it's not as immediate, so he'll try to deal with that later if/when he must.
2
How did Manafort simply show up at the trump campaign headquarters and volunteer to work? Why, who are what propelled him to do so, certainly there were strings attached.
I believe all this goes directly back to Russia. Russian was the chess master moving all these pieces across the board. Wiki-leaks, Manafort and trump, all the perfect storm of corruption and money laundering, easily manipulated.
Russia succeed on a grand scale to influence the outcome of our election and no-one appears to care.
4
There is another hypothesis that the author doesn't mention-that Manafort had nothing to say that the investigators wanted to hear i.e. negative information on Trump so he made things up to give himself leverage for a plea bargain on unrelated fraud charges. Since it was pure make believe it didn't take long to poke holes in his stories. I am sure this is what infuriated Mueller.
1
I think this is an insightful comment. there's another similar but more straightforward explanation which nobody seems to even consider which is that manafort did not lie. we don't know whether he did or didn't. We don't even know what the lie accusation relates to. All we know is the conclusion which is the prosecutor's conclusion that the guy lied. shouldn't he be entitled to some kind of presumption of Innocence or at least consideration by us that maybe he did tell the truth?
1
Exactly. Prosecutors do this all the time. Force defendants to say what they want to here. I see no reason to give Mueller the benefit of the doubt.
The problem is that a lie is whatever a prosecutor thinks it is. This goes hand in glove with false confessions—and false accusations—to fit the prosecutor’s theory of the case to get a sentence reduction.
How vulnerable is Manafort's family to the Russian mob? Quite, I suspect. He may simply be taking the long-shot gamble on a pardon while continuing to curry favor with the oligarchs.
Actually, I think this turn of events makes a presidential pardon all the more likely. Trump will either be extremely grateful to Manafort for lying, or he will want to get Manafort out of jail before he has a chance to turn over once and for all. As for discussions between Trump lawyers and Manafort lawyers, they're unnecessary. Both parties are sophisticated enough to know a presidential pardon is on the table, just waiting to be signed. A Trump impeachment? Maybe. But the GOP Senate would not convict. Trump wins again and has a handy excuse for begging off another run in 2020.
2
Sure there is a good explanation. He is throwing a hail-Mary pass for a pardon.
1
An acquaintance who was a former defense attorney noted to me, "They are presumed innocent...but not intelligent." We assume Mr. Manafort is smart because of all he has achieved. Donald J. Trump has blown that belief apart. Mr. Manafort may just be really stupid.
1
"... eat his cake and have it too..." So nice to see it said correctly.
1
Of course there's an explanation, hard to see why Mr. Litman joins the "shocking," "weird," unbelievable" crowd of pundits. It's perfectly clear to this non-lawyer that Manafort never had any intention of cooperating, fully or otherwise. He made the plea to act as a mole for Trump, knowing full well he'd be pardoned and end up doing less time than if he hadn't. It would appear Mueller has been outfoxed by Giuliani in this particular instance.
By now everyone should realize the Trump and all his associates believe they are above the law, and they are demonstrating it day by day. And there is no action that will turn the cult against him.
6
Paul Manafort was truly in a prisoners dilemma
So a rich, white guy who had nothing to do with Russian interference will linger in prison until he dies. And Mueller and the left will count that as a victory and some form of 'justice' huh? Wonder what the voters will think? Seems likely to me Trump still Pardons him, but he waits until he is on his way out of Office to do it. So expect a pardon for Manafort in the latter months of 2024.
Even yesterday Giuliani was waving around pardons. That is the most likely explanation. I honestly do not understand the support the goon in the White House still gets from Republicans. It is quite frankly shocking and beyond even my cynicism about politicians.
1
He's right back where he started. Smells like a set-up to me; he knew all along what he would do. Took Mueller's team for a ride, gave trump airtime. Rushing to a pardon?
Occam's razor. Trump will pardon Manafort. Start a long battle in State Court as a free man.
1
When Manafort made it look like he was going to turn on trump he climbed up on the same wall the as trumpty dumbty and tried to stradle it. Now they both will take a bigly fall. Being devious is not being smart, it is synonymous with lazy. Life is not a game.
What was Manafort thinking? Isn't it possible that Manafort's family has received threats from Putin's postmen? Lifetime federal protection for his family is not foolproof (reference: Skripal, Litvenenko)...
Until Whitey Bugler's death in Federal prison, I used to think that Manaford felt safer locked up, than in the Le Carre plot scenario, as Mr Litman's puts it. But there is a reason he's being kept isolated. Perhaps, he just can't say the truth.
He is a Russian spy who was planted in the Trump campaign with the knowledge of the President. His behaviour needs to be viewed as that of an enemy of the United States who has specific instructions to follow. Mother Russia will honour him.
1
He did it because he could! He's lost his fancy homes, suits and bank accounts (that we know about, anyway). He's in prison! He has nothing to lose and everything to gain from a presidential pardon from his twin brother in pathological lying.
1
"...unlikely to ever leave prison absent a pardon from President Trump." Wow. The man is a thief and a liar but not a serial killer.
Why did he lie? Because he thought he could get away with it.
That the Emporor Trump does not need to wear any clothes as long as he has his majic Pardon wand and is free of any prosecution for the next two years.
1
Maybe the best explanation is that he will be made whole by wealthy secret donors of the GOP similar to Whitaker's bogus charity....he has the guarantee that he will be paid millions per year after Trump is not in office and he has pardoned Manafort.
This is almost a mafia operation in fact.
2
Manafort is certainly a shady character. But this article lacks journalistic integrity. Not one of the indictments against him are remotely connected to Trump yet the author tries to link them by pointing out he worked for a short time as Trumps campaign manager.
1
@Dady Not one of the indictments against him, so far. You gotta ask yourself... after securing the nomination, why did the Trump team change the Republican Party platform to weaken the US response to any military move by Russia towards the Ukraine? Why hasn't the Trump administration said or done anything about the recent attack on the Ukrainian Navy, by Russia? Manafort's lucrative business before becoming Trumps campaign manager was all about Russian influence in bringing down the government of Ukraine. Wait for the evidence to be released, then decide.
Mueller is using Manafort to get to Trump. You hit the nail on the head.
There's a very good reason Manafort was lying to Mueller.
He was trying to play both sides of the fence (his legal team had a joint defense agreement with Trump's legal team, in true mafioso fashion).
Because he's stupid.
1
I sincerely hope Manafort does hard time, and not in the cush type of jail cell he bragged about previously. How about they throw him in with the general populace. He more than deserves it.
The attempted murder of Sergei Skipal and his daughter in March 2018 was a signal that we can get you (and your family) whenever we want, wherever we want, Great Britain, America, wherever. The Russians take turncoats and tattlers very seriously, and they must be punished. Manafort, more than most, is aware of this. He is at great risk, and one should not expect him to reveal anything damaging to Russia or her co-conspirators.
2
Again I ask , NYT why do you continue to show photographs of Manafort in his tailored suits? If clothes make the man, he is no longer that man. His wardrobe is now prison garb. Those photographs would be more meaningful and honest.
Lying is all he knows and he will live longer in federal prison than as a free man facing “justice” from Putin and Saudi Arabia
Boiling down Mr. Litman's analysis: Manafort is either 1) corrupt, 2) terrified, 3) stupid, or 4) all of the above.
Number 4 sounds about right.
1
Really Mr Litman? It's that hard to figure out? Manafort, by giving Trump and his cronies insider information, was promised a pardon in return. Is there anyone in this Administration who is NOT a traitor and a crook?
1
Tigers don’t change their stripes. Pathological liars can’t tell the truth.
The simplest explanation is usually the correct one: Manafort is a natural liar and could help himself as it is who he is.
Paul Manafort wasn't thinking. He was lying.
Manafort took so much Russian Mafia money for so many years that he knows that what they will do to him and his family if he ratted would be 10000 times worse than jail.
The Russian mob is an extension of the old KGB and Putin sent a message when he had people killed in England. Manafort got the message.
2
As more than one has already wrote, it's obvious he is not as stupid as most think.
He played court jester and still does.
Always spinning a tale.
Why stop now...
Manafort is running out of options and the same could be said of his crooked boss who happens to be the President. The only suit that will fit them and their corrupt friends is an orange suit set against a background of prison bars. Go Mr. Mueller, save America!
No good explanation? How about that was the plan all along - for Manafort to act as a mole for The Con Don, Putin and their International Mafia cabal?
They truly think they are above the law and "untouchable".
Boy, do WE THE PEOPLE - average people across America and around the wrold -have news for them. They are OUR laws. Ths is OUR United States of America. This is OUR world. We willnot sit around and let try to destroy them again.
Not now. Not ever.
4
Will the judge handling the sentencing be the trial judge who seemed so skeptical about the government's case? He would probably never unseal the evidence.
1
State prisons tend to be even bigger hell holes than federal prisons so one can only hope that his final destination is one or the other. Paul - We hope you have an enjoyable stay in Joliet or Dannemora!
2
Liars gonna lie.
2
"This scenario was always out of the most imaginative Le Carré novel..."
It may not have much explanatory power for the other reasons you gave -- but this specific characterization reveals a shocking ignorance of the nature and proven history of the Putin regime.
5
In general, what do habitual liars and manipulators think? Lying and manipulating worked for them in the past and it will work again. For them, it's their chosen alternative to dealing with what's so. So far, it appears to be working for Trump. Well, at least in his lying and manipulating mind it's working.
2
"Perhaps Mr. Manafort, who has enjoyed a lifelong reputation as a swashbuckling big-time gambler, is simply a lousy poker player."
Just like we've learned Trump is a lousy "deal maker".
This proves that power is corrupt (who knew?), wealthy criminals have been exposed - and if Trump hadn't been so egotistical to become run for president - they'd still be enjoying the fruits of their malfeasance.
5
It seems to me Manafort is gambling with an ace-in-the-hole: Whitaker's unconstitutional appointment that unfortunately will probably stand, due to the Senate being in stronger GOP control than before. This means a Trump pardon and a Senate-supported assault on the Mueller investigation (McConnell refuses to protect it) will go hand-in-hand to reward Manafort for lying about the actual factual collusion between team Trump and the Russians.
Proof is already in Mueller's hands, but with federal judges, including Supreme Court, stacked in Trump's favor, and the new larger GOP Senate majority refusing to do their jobs, truth is a sad side-story in this ugly circus. As long as someone as unfit for office as Whitaker is in the position of top law enforcement official, our justice system cannot function, and we, the people, are the losers.
9
Trump has no reason what so ever to pardon Manafort. Think about it, a pardon would create a world of problems for the administration, all team Trump had to so was dangle the pardon in front of him and Manafort take the bait. Now Manafort will go to prison for the rest of his life not only convicted of his original crimes but also without the credibility to be able to threaten Trump as cooperating witness ever again.
The best move for Trump is to keep sending signals that Manafort is going to be pardoned then let him rot in prison for the rest of his days. The smart thing for Manafort to do was to cooperate with Mueller which he didn't do. Also even if Manafort is pardoned that doesn't get him out of any state charges filed against him.
5
When you have everything given to you either on a silver platter through your wealthy family or illegally through shady operations that seem to give you everything you want, I suppose it leaves you feeling above the fray, the poor mortals that struggle for each dime legally. These two options describe Trump and Manafort, their sense of entitlement and recklessness. But society through great credit scores and the appearance of wealth if not its actuality sanctions their behavior that seems to own the world, but is as empty as any lie. So the big lie is that held by society that assumes wealth is everything and honor and truth nothing.
3
The other possibility is that Manafort used Mueller, on behalf of Trump, to glean information to pass on to Trump, knowing that he would be pardoned. Only he got caught.
5
I believe two things here: 1. Manafort, under enormous stress, is grasping at straws in desperation and will do or not do whatever it takes to cut his losses.
2. Trump will throw Manafort under the bus in a heartbeat if he no longer serves his purpose. It's just the way he is.
4
Another hypothesis -- that Manafort's agreement to "cooperate" enabled his attorneys to learn what Mueller knows -- is consistent with today's news that Manafort's attorneys are briefing Trump and his attorneys on the conversations between Mueller and Manafort.
5
The judge will determine the outcome. If Mr Manafort has violated the law, he will be sent to prison as he should be. To you as a former prosecutor this may be a bizarre turn of events but to Washington insiders, it is business as usual.
Speaking of veracity with lawyers such as Weissmann as team mates, anyone can and probably will lie including the prosecutors as history has told us.
Or maybe we can trust the prosecutor who left people falsly accused and imprisoned for murder while actually knowing that Whitey Bulger committed the murders. Not exactly a team of trust worthy lawyers/prosecutors.
Our legal system has frayed to the point of not being recognizable.
2
from Daily Kos: 1. Manafort agrees to a plea deal, promising to tell all. However, what Manafort tells doesn’t just stop short of “all,” it includes deliberate lies and omissions.
2. In addition to giving Mueller a sanitized version of events, Manafort reports back to Trump on what the investigation is asking him, providing invaluable prep as Trump determines his own actions.
3. At the same time, Donald Trump is preparing to answer a set of written questions from Robert Mueller’s team. He delays and delays on providing these answers because … because he’s waiting for his inside man to reassure him that the special counsel has swallowed the “official” version of what happened hook, line, and sinker.
4. Reassured by Manafort that he has sold Mueller’s team on a carefully edited version of the “truth,” Trump turns in his homework.
5. And it’s only after Mueller has Trump’s answers in hand that he marches Manafort back into court and reveals that he knew the campaign manager was lying all along. Now Mueller doesn’t just have Manafort on record lying, he has written proof that Manafort and Trump were conspiring again to deceive and misdirect the investigation.
Now we know why Trump said the questions were easy to answer.
7
Manafort prefers talcum-looking powder over slippery soaps during communal showers.
Next question.
1
Manafort has lied and used connections to win all his life. Maybe he didn't think he'd ever have to pay the piper.
1
Manafort knows a lot about how the Russian and Ukrainian mobsters work and all their associates. Manafort is an enormous liability to these mobsters just hanging out there as he has been embedded with them for over a decade.
If I was one of these mobsters that did not want Manafort to speak I would make sure that Manafort knew that if he cooperated with Mueller in any way that his family would be in danger. It is possible that Manafort is lying to keep his own family alive? Remember, these guys poison and kill their political rivals and the press all the time.
2
Problem with analysis of option #1: It would trigger impeachment, but NOT conviction. Given the current state of the Republican Party and their solid control of the U.S. Senate they would never convict Trump of anything (though one would like to hope that exonerating a clearly traitorous President would weigh heavily against the Republicans in future elections)
1
Criminals lie. This should not be a surprise.
All of Manafort's conversations are not monitored, more specifically, his conversations with his attorneys are not. Of course Trump and Manafort have bargained about a pardon thru Manafort's attorneys.
4
Think of what the Trump supporter will think of a Paul Manafort pardon. See? That's why a pardon will happen.
4
If you were born in, say, 1980 and started paying attention to politics in the late '90s, your perception would surely be colored by a picture of our leaders in DC operating under cloaks of lies, lack of integrity and overwhelming self interest. By now you have a strong distrust of what is done in DC and the present administration, promising to "drain the swamp" has only populated the swamp with more nefarious creatures. So I think trust in our leaders has slipped and will continue to slide down this smelly, slippery slope.
1
I believe Mr. Manafort knows his goose is cooked in any event. So why not make things as difficult as possible for Mueller?
Why not consider an exit like Hermann Göring's?
Manafort has a wife and two children who I assume he cares about and among his many enemies is the murderous Russian and Trump associate, Vladimir Putin.
Vladimir Putin who specializes is murder by remote control.
Vladimir Putin who never, ever, forgets or forgives.
A Paul Manafort who is attempting to blow up the Mueller investigation in order to placate Putin and ensure his family's safety makes a lot of sense.
High stakes for everyone involved when death enters the game...
3
Mr. Litman, you and the other erstwhile U. S. prosecutors, FBI men, and former federal employees currently making some scratch on MSNBC and other news outlets deserve it.
I don't think most Americans would guess how much time, arduous effort and education you people have put into protecting the rule of law, and safeguarding Americans in your previous jobs.
The men and women we have seen on air appear to be paragons of professionalism and probity. This further underscores why Manafort's machinations vis-a-vis Mr. Mueller are lunacy.
I just wanted to thank you. I am an officer of the court. I understand where you came from. Manafort and Trump should be very afraid.
9
Manafort has been locked up for months. Maybe the grim conditions of the jailhouse drove him crazy — not the legal definition of insanity, but crazy enough to become irrational in how he intereacted with the prosecutors.
After a lifetime of lying, he just couldn't do otherwise. Like trump.
2
Mueller waited to "out" Manafort until AFTER the president submitted his written answers. Manafort's lies are now Trump's lies. Pretty simple.
4
While the president of the United States denies climate change and reports in private to Vladimir Putin, it makes sense that Paul Manafort hopes for a presidential pardon are justified.
He’s all in with DJT.
1
Caould the negotiations over prison include which FCI Facility, Lompoc, Danbury or other with a work release program? Then, the H.R. Halderman conversion to preaching on the cell stump?
The orchestration and organizing of cell block politics will come naturally to Mr. Manafort. He’ll build alignments, shift on the eddies and currents of who’s up or down.
The Oleg Deripaska overhang of looking around every corner dissipates. The 1000 thread count sheets and Ostrich leather jackets retired for a life of piety.
Will there be like minded cell mates who share his propensity for The Art of the Deal? This potboiler has so many angles it’s a geodesic dome of drama.
1
Occam's Razor: Manafort stopped cooperating when he knew he'd be pardoned. A behind the scenes deal that is unusual and crass? Manafort? The White House and Gulianni? Really? Color me shocked.
2
One explanation. Lie, get sentenced, get pardoned.
We must all keep in mind that there is no moral base to these people or to their political party. Just in our lifetimes we witnessed Ford pardoning Nixon and Bush1 pardoning all Reagan's accomplices in Iran-Contra.
Manafort knows that by perpetuating the lie he gets to walk.
1
Or he's just a crook who can't stop being crooked and there isn't any real strategy to it.
Hypothesis #2 is not given enough consideration after khashoggi and sergi skripal.
2
You are taking it for granted that he lied based solely on Mueller's statement. After the Kavanaugh fiasco I came to understand the Democrats do not understand the meaning of the word "evidence".
3
manafort, like trump, loves money more than anything else. his entire adult life is the pursuit of wealth. so why would manafort get himself installed as trump's campaign chairman for a salary of zero dollars? the only answer that makes any sense is this: putin. that's what he's hiding, and that's why he's ready to go to prison.
1
Well, when you've eliminated the impossible, whatever is left, no matter how implausible, must be the truth. In this case, I think Manafort is a pathological liar. He can't help himself. This theory also fits with Litman's third hypothesis since even if Manafort believed he could get away with lying, why would he lie after agreeing to tell the truth. What possible benefit would lying give him. And, as Litman implied, when presented with a choice of a reduced sentence today versus a promise from a president known for cheating people out of what he owes them, who would take the latter.
Trump won't be impeached but what I hope to witness is Donnie being handcuffed in January 2020 immediately after the next president is sworn in.
1
Why would concerns about the Russians poisoning him, in retaliation for telling the truth, be unlikely? They have repeatedly poisoned people who they perceive to be turncoats. They might even have threatened his family. I know that I would lie to protect my family from being poisoned by Putin. Also, Manafort has a past record of betrayal when it comes to Russians: he owed them millions, which is why he had to become Trumps' campaign mgr in the first place. What do you think they threatened him with to get him to do that? Le Carre has never written a novel stranger than these truths we are seeing unfold.
3
Perhaps there's a simple, one-word answer to why Manafort would lie: Habit.
Gambling on who has the most power:Trump or Mueller.
By both Trump and Manafort.
In order to know what he was thinking you need to think like a crook. My guess is that when he agreed to cooperate he thought he was buying time. He's just waiting for his fellow grifter to wave the magical pardon wand. The truth is that Trump has no loyalty to anyone. If Trump blames Manafort for his Russian problems, Trump will let him twist in the wind forever...and really not care. If Trump resigns before 2020 look to Pence to do all tbe dirty work and take the heat for pardoning Manafort.
1
There's a presupposition here that Manafort is
A rational
B capable of telling the truth
This is a very shady swamp creature who's had a terrible impact on our politics for decades. He's obviously not much in control of his sociopathic tendencies. Wheeler-dealers who lack empathy don't have the capability to think the way people who care about others do.
Obviously, there are 4 reasons for this.
1, 2, and 3: delay, delay, delay.
4: pardon
3
Hypothesis No. 4: He's just not that smart. His daughter said as much.
Another explanation is that Manafort has just simply given up. He is panicking and has basically self-destructed without thinking through the consequences. Maybe it is his way of committing suicide?
1
Maybe the explanation is just very simple: Manafort is another who just doesn't know how to tell the truth.
1. a presidential pardon.
and
2. despite comments below, that pardon also applies to state crimes as well under the "supremacy clause"
1
What was Manafort thinking?
Sleazy people have sleazy thoughts. Look who he was working for. Our president. Speaking of sleazy.
As far as a pardon - who would be sure Donald Trump would have that much “kindness” in his heart for even a move like that, as convoluted as this whole thing is.
Manafort’s only chance is a presidential pardon. Unlikely as it may be, it is less unlikely than any other way out of his ugly mess.
How do we know Manafort lied? Ever heard of an allegation? That is an unproven accusation. Trust in government seems to follow political headwinds. Remember Robert Menendez?
2
Totally disagree. There are excellent reasons for lying to Mueller and the prosecution team.
1. He is buying time and diverting attention away from the facts. The team has had to spend time determining that he is lying.
2. He knows that whatever occurs he will probably be pardoned. He is coming from the position of an arrogant individual who has few concerns about jail.
3. He is raising questions about the quality of the work being done by the prosecution and thereby giving ammunition to those who question the prosecution.
4. This is a very predictable scenario.
149
The state of New York should be filing their case and pursuing it now as a pardon is certainly in the works.
40
@jlgold
And I totally disagree with you.
Manafort cannot be pardoned from state convictions. Buying time? Time for what? The man is behind bars! Too much bought time and Trump will likely be out of office. Mueller is not being effectively discredited by anybody other than Trump sycophants.
The man is a liar and he cannot help but tell lies. In that way, he's no different than Trump, a man who can't admit wrong doing or tell the truth. Lying is the only predictable scenario!
71
@jlgold
not really seeing the logic of #3, and #4 isn't really any kind self-evident reason, so you sort of jimmied 2 weak reasons into 4 to make your argument hold water for a few seconds.
26
With time to ruminate, Manafort probably came to the conclusion that the plea bargain he accepted was no deal at all. In all likelihood he would remain in prison, either for life, or until the point where the quality of his remaining life, in or out of prison, would be depressingly low. All Manafort could salvage was the gratitude of the Trump family. A t least they can help the people Manafort cares about, or protect them from harm.
4
I think this analysis is overly complicated; these guys aren't that sophisticated. Of course Manafort's actions revolve around the possibility of a pardon. I suspect there was a fairly simple agreement reached before Manafort was ever arrested (not directly involving lawyers, who might face sanctions): Manafort would delay as long as he could, but in the end would be pardoned. Simple as that. Cooperate with Mueller? Sure, if you need to. Give them a few nuggets and drag it out as long as you can. That will even give us (Trump team) some insight into what Mueller knows. State charges that are unpardonable? Not to worry - we'll have you on a jet to your new home (Crimea?) before they can ever get their act together.
2
I absolutely believe it is because he has been promised a pardon. Today's story about his lawyers talking to Trump's lawyers only cements that belief. Time will tell, of course.
2
Manafort's lawyers have been keeping Trump's lawyers posted about Mueller's investigation. That would appear to be a problem for Mueller. However, Mueller is smarter than Trump and Manafort. Maybe he is just setting Trump up. A pardon of Manafort by Trump doesn't seem too likely. Trump could be impeached for that and couldn't pardon Manafort for state charges anyway.
4
Today, we learn what Manafort was thinking. By sending his lawyer to give details to Giuliani about his discussions with Mueller, he was revealing Mueller's playbook, thus allowing Trump to continue to trash the Special Counsel investigation.
Nothing illegal here, but it's a highly risky strategy. Sure, he'll probably get a pardon, from this highly transactional White House, but his troubles will only begin once the states get going.
6
There's a pardon deal in the works. Will argue the pardon is fair because the Mueller investigation is tainted.
2
I don't understand why it isn't obvious to everyone. Manafort did what he did to stall the Mueller investigation until after the mid terms, to prevent any negative evidence implicating Trump before the elections. this was a plan hatched by Trump's White House and Manaofrt agreed in exchange for the promise of a pardon.
12
Ok, here's my speculative game theorizing:
#1: For Manafort, the goal is to do what's good for Trump, both to ensure a pardon and to limit the fallout of the Mueller investigation.
#2: In the first trial, the goal was acquittal. It was always a big gamble, but Mueller had good lawyer's, and acquittal was a real possibility. Indeed, the jury appeared to struggle over it's decision.
#3: The revelations and results of the first trial made Trump look bad. At that point, it was clearly better to avoid a second trial that would likely have made Trump look even worse. Better, instead, to avoid a second trial and buy time by offering to cooperate and then not actually cooperating. (Mueller is under time pressure, after all.)
#4: The lying thus serves these purposes: a) avoiding another trial; b) buying time; c) protecting Trump; d) limiting the fallout of the Mueller investigation; and, therefore, e) increasing the likelihood of a pardon. From a sort of game theory perspective, these positives could be seen as outweighing the obvious negative consequences of blatant lying.
8
(Sorry for the misplaced apostrophes!)
@Lucas I think there's something in the idea that Mueller waited until Trump submitted his answers before he revealed that he can prove Manafort was lying to him. Manafort's lawyers have been in contact with Trump's lawyers. You know they have been telling Trump exactly what Manafort was saying to Mueller. Trump would have matched his answers to Manafort's lies. That would set Trump up to perjury charges. Perhaps Mueller gave Trump and Manafort just enough rope to hang themselves.
1
@Jimo That's certainly a compelling possibility and likely part of Mueller's strategy, but Trump's lawyers would have had to assume that Mueller knows an awful lot, and therefore Trump's replies would have been designed carefully to hedge and avoid any possibility of provable perjury.
(Manafort's lawyers would presumably have assumed that Mueller might know enough to prove that Manafort was lying, but for reasons such as what I described in my first comment, the Manafort team might still have decided to dissemble. Also, even though, as I said, the Trump team would have had to assume that Mueller knows an awful lot, it still would have been useful for Trump's lawyers to know what Manafort was and wasn't revealing.)
I don’t agree with the pardon theory. A presidential pardon will not cover state crimes. According to various news sources, Manafort plead guilty to state crimes as part of his 175-page plea deal. Before the ink dries on the pardon, state attorneys general will charge him with the crimes to which he has already pled guilty. A Trump pardon only means a change of prison addresses for Manafort. There has to be another explanation.
12
Simple. Trump's style is to lie constantly, so Manafort showed fealty to him by doing that himself.
6
Does anyone really doubt that Trump will pardon Manafort if Manafort remains loyal? If Trump loses in 2020, there is no doubt that he will pardon Manafort before he leaves office. What would it cost him? Manfort is buying himself a two-year sentence - six years at most.
4
Thank you for this insightful article.
My bet is on the presidential pardon theory. Maybe under any normal circumstances it would seem implausible. But consider who we're talking about. Trump is no rocket scientist. This is the man who recently derided the notion of global "warming" because the northeast was having a cold snap.
He's also an inveterate narcissist. I find it entirely plausible that Trump ordered his attorneys to relay the promise of a pardon. I have no doubt that Trump thinks he can outmaneuver Mueller and that he's impervious to prosecution.
And where Trump's attorneys are concerned, all the credible ones have fled him. Is it so challenging to imagine Rudolf Guiliani risking disbarment to pull off such a mafia-style tactic? Mm-mm. No sir.
It's the pardon.
5
No reason for Manafort to lie to Mueller?
If we have learned one thing so far is that trump operates with impunity. Trump has told him that he will pardon him. And Manafort believes him. That is an enormous trust in an inveterate liar.
I am not so sure he made the right choice; Manafort may have thrown himself under the bus.
9
I think he's a gambler. He just went all in.
By lying he's sending a message to trump and making it more likely to get a pardon. He's risking a super long sentence, but his chances of being pardoned by trump just went up, I think.
7
I agree with Mr Litman that the "pardon" and "assassination" hypotheses don't make sense, and are ultimately unpersuasive. Manafort's failure to fulfill his part of the cooperation deal remains puzzling.
But my own hunch is that Manfort, like many in the Trump administration -- like Brett Kavanaugh and Trump himself -- has spent such an inordinate amount of time in a position of power, and prey to its corrupting and distorting effects, that he simply does not know how to act in a reasonable or sensible way -- or to protect his own self interest -- in its absence. He's flailing around like the proverbial beetle on its back, all six spindly little legs waving about uselessly in the air.
I noticed long ago that when things get weird, it's because of power.
5
I'm going with the luckless and really, really dumb wretch theory. There's a special stupidity only produced by extreme arrogance, and these people do seem to possess it in spades. The timing of Trump's answers to Mueller is significant in all this. Reasonable to assume we're at an 'aha' moment when two very arrogant people suddenly find they're out of prevaricating options.
7
He's a career white collar criminal, and believes himself to be entitled, exactly like Trump. Lying is what he does. It's part of his nature. What does it say about someone who sells himself to Russia to oppose democracy? Everything to people like Manafort and Trump is simply a business transaction. There's no morality, only winners and losers, and they will do what's necessary to win, or in Manafort's case go to jail. Personally, I think he's in so deep with Russia that he fears them more than he fears going to prison.
6
The timing of Manafort’s cooperation agreement nullification and the submission of Trump’s written responses to Mueller’s questions are intriguing to me. What a cast of characters. A vipers den.
9
My guess about what Manafort was thinking, which came to me when he flipped and promised to cooperate:
The whole thing was a set up with Manafort and Trump. Manafort would "flip" and tell Mueller's team all about A, B and C, leaving out D, the part that most seriously incriminates Trump. Mueller would reward Manafort for his cooperation. Trump would pardon Manafort after some decent interval. History would never hear about D.
But Mueller figured out D on his own, and that Manafort withheld or lied about D to him. Not good for Manafort, not good for Trump since D is what is most likely damaging to the president.
Since hiding D from Mueller was worth a big price, a real gamble, we can be pretty sure it's juicy. And now Mueller has it.
We'll find out what D is fairly soon, I"m thinking.
17
Paul Manafort and Donald Trump inhabit a rarified world in which only two standards rule, avarice and ruthlessness. Trumps' recent boast during an interview with the Washington Post that, “One of the problems that a lot of people like myself, we have very high levels of intelligence" is as axiomatic as one can get.
Like Trump, Manafort consistently has revealed an almost unfathomable level of sheer stupidity in both his words and his actions. Under such scrutiny, none of Litman's hypotheses bears resemblance to plausibility. The idea that, after a long and close relationship with Trump, Manafort would entertain the idea that Trump somehow could be relied upon to reward him for anything, and not throw him under the Trump campaign bus at the slightest provocation, speaks to Manafort possessing a brain that even a common snail would disown.
That hypothesis, as applied to both men, is a distinct plausibility. A better question is why Manafort would grovel for a position with Trump in the first place, knowing Trump to inhabit the snakeskin dermatological lining which always has characterized him. Better yet is where was Trump when Manafort was on his legal and financial ropes, in a position to destroy even a notorious rhinoceros such as Trump?
Manafort's entire scenario, similar to Trump's, defies the credible. No wonder that even a denizen of impropriety like Mitch McConnell is preparing to throw in the towel when it comes to ensuring Robert Mueller finishes his investigation.
3
If you had written this as a political thriller 4 years ago, no publisher in his right might would green light your novel. They would tell you it is too unrealistic, too fantastic to sell.
We are living the Chinese curse--may you live in interesting times.
7
Maybe someone threatened his family? His lying, under the circumstances, seems like a desperate measure to me. I think he's a man out of time.
3
Manafort can lie to Mueller until the cows come home. This allows him to give no further information to to the investigative team. He's relying on a presidential pardon. So is Ivanka. State charges; he'll get to that bridge when he comes to it.
4
If Manafort feared Russians more than feds, that would put Deripaski in the driver's seat of this whole spectacle. If there were a pardon implied before the proffer were possible, we'll never know about it, thanks to the obstinate lack of cooperation.
Self-destruction is the appropriate theory, then, perhaps as an indication of loyalty's limits in a limited coup. Criminals get crazy, apparently, before politicians can become civil.
2
If Mr. Manafort's places his hopes in a pardon by Mr. Trump, he will be in for a surprise. Loyalty and gratitude is not in the nature of a narcissist.
3
Hypothesis 1: "But that would entail some communication, from the president, through two intermediaries (one in the Trump camp and one in the Manafort camp) and on to Mr. Manafort in prison, where all his conversations are monitored."
And apparently such communication did, in fact, happen.
And counter to Mr. Litman's claim, it appears that this behavior is considered both ethical and legal, and won't result in any disbarment (at least according to the Times article).
I think it's pretty clear which hypothesis holds....
1
"How to make sense of the bizarre turn of events involving Paul Manafort?"
Mr. Litman, it´s NOT the job of an attorney to make sense of implausible statements of a suspect by speculating or by hypothesizing as basis for making decisions. This is not the way a lawyer is supposed to work.
What about there is no sense? What about the suspect is simply a fool? What about it makes sense but you don´t know the specific clue yet? What about this is the most clever statement in his particular situation he perfectly knows but you don´t know in full (or any) extent so you can not judge the statement at present?
Buit when you play this game anyhow - as you do here - why don´t you focus on the most simple hypothesis first?
Mr. Manafort as a businessman through and through could be simply disappointed by his reward for the cooperation deal - the softened sentence was much higher than he had expected - and now he is getting petulant.
Remember your quote:
"But when the time came for Mr. Manafort to turn over his cards at the first trial, he was out of aces and was convicted on multiple charges that most likely equated to a life sentence."
Why should he cooperate in the second trial? It cannot help him anymore.
The only reason for his recent offer might have been a last desperate personal hope on reduction of the penalty he had already got. When Mr. Mueller had to confess that he is unable to do this he quit the useless game.
The judge in the first trial had been a bad gambler!
I think this Opinion was written & published before the new information about Manafort's attorneys talking with the Trump camp. This seems like the most obvious reason at this point - Manafort will be pardoned and compensated financially by Trump for stalling and lying. Risky for all involved, yes, but likely.
3
What was manafort thinking? What he always thought. That he could do whatever he wanted and get his way, lying and double talking all the way. He worked for the russians for ten years and learned all the lies and tricks of the corrupt russians which worked perfectly with manaforts own corruption.
He did thei Russians bidding for ten years at $10 million per year, installing dictators, establishing far right wing activists in eastern European countries that had been leaning to the west, towards Democracy. He was paid to get rid of that idea anywhere he could, as trump works to destroy our democracy every day.
5
Manafort may have thought he was a top flight gambler. But he forgot this one cardinal rule among gamblers: the House always win.
3
Maybe he knows a pardon will come and needed to impugn his own testimony by displaying a pattern of lying, this breaking the chain to Trump.
2
He will be the next Attorney General. Whitaker will be bitter and feel tricked and betrayed. Sessions and he will set up a consulting firm. And who know what will happen from there
1
Occam's razor. The plainest explanation is that Manafort is a liar. He has always lied, he has often done well by his lies, and he doesn't really know any other way to conduct himself. There's no reason to think he'll change.
3
The first thingt that came to mind when I read 'he had no good reason to lie to Muller' was that he's hiding other, worse stuff.
1
Too bad Mannafort didn't forgoe the ostrich coat and spend the money on Broadway Plays....THEN he would have recognized the play performed in front of his eyes by Mueller's Team of Players....and would have never reported it to Trump who of course bragged and gloated about Mueller's Team "coming apart and screaming at each other" in tweets and on-stage....and THEN Mueller knew for sure Mannafort had betrayed his promise.
A third grade trick which we still teach in the intel and counter-intel training.
So Sad, Too Bad....Bye-Bye Miss American Pie
3
So this all begs the question that's tearing Trump apart: what exactly does Mueller have?
3
Paul Manafort has been lying for his entire life, as lying isn't uncommon among business people, lobbyists, and politicians. In fact, his father also engaged in this, charged with corruption but never convicted. Trump surrounds himself with liars, and just exchanges one for another one. It is all going to come back to bite all of them, in the you know what, sooner, rather than later, finally.
6
Thinking is not something people like Manafort do
Methinks Mueller figured out Manafort was a mole,
so they fed him bogus info that they knew Trump
would put in his tweets and answers to the written
questions.
Mueller can release his info in connection with
Manafort's sentencing which will be an end around
Whitaker and exec. privilege
A pardon won't help Manafort's state law problems.
He has plead guilty so he is in deep kimchee
5
I think hypothesis #3, the bad gambler, is the most plausible. Mr. Manafort likely views himself as a shrewd, tactical risk taker in the same way that Donald Trump declares his I.Q. to be very high.
Also, part of the gamble in angling for a Trump pardon on federal charges is to do so without any "promise" from him. After all, even a mediocre gambler knows a "promise" from Donald Trump is meaningless.
It is so obvious, Manafort has already cut a deal with Trump. He agreed to keep all secrets and lie to the investigators in exchange for a pardon.
1
How will America respond if Trump pardons Manafort for convictions on tax fraud and money laundering?
Not well.
We need to remember that presidential pardons are not meant to allow the president to protect himself from criminal activity.
Thank god we have a Democratic House in January.
5
Trump and his ilk--criminals--always plan a way out. It's how Trump has got away with all of it for so long. He and his co-conspirators (aka, friends and family) have gotten very good at this. The never ending stream of lies, the tax cheating, the swindling of investors, the money laundering and the conspiracy to steal the election are job number one for these types and they always plan a way to lie and steal their way out if they get caught red-handed. They have fixers, not lawyers. Based on their experience with a system that lets the rich get away with anything, they expect to succeed. Call it hubris or call it privilege, it's the true art of the deal. It's why Jared Kushner can advise the president not to react to the killing of a Washington Post journalist by a so-called ally because he knows "it will pass." So far, he's been correct.
2
When one is faced with decades in prison, the unlikely becomes one's best shot. I do not rule out the pardon. Why else would Manafort and his attorney risk charges for obstruction to help out Trump?
1
What was he thinking? He was thinking according to a pattern that he had developed over his lifetime. He is a habitual liar. It's his modus operandi. It's how he has learned to behave. It's how he operates. The questions is almost like asking, why does a fish swim? Or, why does a bird fly? Humans are creatures of habit. Lying had prosperously worked for Manafort for years. Lying is so ingrained into his life methodology, he can't stop. A liar is a liar, and a cheater is a cheater. They lie and cheat in all operations of their lives. It's just how they live.
3
Telling lies is the Trump culture. We see it every day from Trump to his minions. Those in the Trump orbit think they are immune from morality. Trump and his gut feelings, his super intelligence, his obsession with Saudi princes. His whole Presidency is a lie. The absentee First Lady, the ladies in waiting - Kelly Ann and Huckabee Sanders - it’s a disgraceful parody of democracy. And we are suffering- people losing their jobs just before Christmas, farmers unable to sell their harvest, rising interest rates crippling investment, tariffs increasing manufacturing and business costs. The lie that tax cuts would benefit the average American. Manafort, Cohen, Flynn - all liars. And Wikileaks - surely there are tapes of everyone who enters the Ecuadorian embassy. And now we have Fox Nation - with their stamp of approval on Trump - are they expecting to be sanctioned as the nations spokes people!
3
Paul Manafort's prison sentence will be 2 - 6 years. If Trump is defeated in 2020, he'll pardon Manafort in January, 2021. If Trump is reelected, he'll pardon Manafort in January, 2025. How hard is it to figure this one out?
1
It's time we handed control of this nation back to adults. The president continues to live in his lala-land where he is "a genius" and everyone else is just wrong. The GoP abdicated its responsibilities after President Obama started his term. The press and news media don't seem capable of doing their jobs. At least, with this last election, the citizens of this nation showed that they were ready for grown-ups to start running the nation again. These last remnants of the original basket of deplorables are just waiting their turn to be picked up by the trash truck and deposited on the heap of history's useless detritus.
1
How can Trump pardon Manafort? Trump has a stronger bond with Roger Stone and would have to pardon Stone if he pardons Manafort.
We know Trump will probably 'have to' pardon Don Jr. and Jared.
That's already 4 pardons for Trump re: the Mueller investigation.
Trump can't possibly stay in office if he pardons all those people...
1
It isn't complicated.
Mr. Manafort rolled the dice on a jury trial.
Now, he's rolling the dice on a pardon.
Folks like Mr. Manafort and Mr. Trump believe they are above everyone and everything else, including the law.
And, who knows?
Mr. Trump is still President and Mr. Manafort may get his pardon.
3
Pretty sure the big lie has something to do with the visit to Assange at the embassy. The must have him on tape or his signature on a visitors log. Mueller would not leave anything to chance on the possibility of giving up on such a potentially valuable witness. He must have Manafort dead to rights AND enough hard evidence on higher ups without his cooperation to dispose of such a valuable cooperator
2
Mr. Manafort's clumsy attempt at witness tampering at the beginning of his Virginia trial, coupled with his reneging on his agreement with Mr. Mueller prove that Mr. Manafort is not nearly as smart as he thinks. Stupidity and arrogance are a ruinous combination.
3
Hypothesis No.4: Hubris as defined by the Lexicon Webster Dictionary: Insolence or arrogance caused by inordinate pride; exaggerate self-confidence.
After all he was never caught before.
2
My guess is that Manafort knows that he couldn't escape the Russians even in a federal prison. The suspicious transfer of Whitey Bulger to a WV prison and his death within four hours of that transfer would indicate that no one is safe in this system.
That said, I believe that Mueller is setting up Trump to pardon Manafort so that Trump can be charged with obstruction of justice under U S Code 18.
What as he thinking? He was thinking that he's better than us, and the laws don't apply to him.
1
Manafort deserves no sympathy. He is a victim of his hubris. Trump will be also. They can't stop the conning.
1
All of these scenarios are too complicated. Manafort has become confused, probably clinically paranoid and delusional. In this state he can no longer make decisions that are in his best interest or even that make much sense at all. He can act, however, on the basis of what gives him the best sense of "control" in each successive meeting with his prosecutors (enemies) and that is to continue to lie and invent. Total cooperation with anyone (ie telling the truth) is unthinkable because it lays himself bare for all to see, including himself, and that is intolerable.
1
Think it through, lol, and follow the money; does a potential plea deal by Manafort allow him to keep the proceeds from the Book and Movie deal or will some variation of the Son of Sam rules force him to give the revenues to the Federal Treasury.
I mean a ten million dollar tell-all story from the inside guy buys a lot of favors and goodies in the prison canteen. And a lot of good legal work on your appeal to reduce sentencing.
You gotta think like them to understand where this might be going.
1
Go to Jail.
Go directly to Jail.
Do not pass go.
Do not collect $200.
1
Manafort is ruined...professionally, reputation ally and financially. He is a criminal. No Presidential pardon can restore any of the three.
1
Hypothesis #1 seems the most likely to me. Stone only talked to Corsi. Manafort only talked to Trump. By converting Manafort's testimony to Mueller into a tissue of lies, Manafort insulated Trump, and retained his promised pardon.
Perhaps he delayed things until the last minute in hopes of knowing more about the status of further state prosecutions before a then-possible Mueller firing.
1
What about the obvious: just like it is difficult for a tiger to become a vegan, it is difficult for an inveterate liar to become a truth teller.
1
Possibly, Manafort never intended to cooperate. Possibly, from the start, Manafort pretended to cooperate, with the intent to learn what Mueller knows, and report back to Trump.
1
The bigger question remains, if no one in Trump’s camp broke the law during the 2016 campaign, then why is anyone lying about anything?
1
A pardon would prove both collusion and obstruction. Is collusion and obstruction a crime worthy of impeachment? That would depend, are there 3 Republican Senators, along with Mike Pence who are Patriotic Americans?
What am I missing? Why don't we see this as Manafort and Trump gleefully thumbing their noses at Mueller? Why isn't it obvious that Manafort's getting a pardon, so he has carte blanche to lie to Trump any way he wants, with zero consequences, doesn't he?
1
I'm convinced it's fear of assassination. If he played along nothing would happen to him or his family. Any cooperation means he will be killed, in or out of prison. His family is now at risk too. Putin is a bad man, period. He's murdered before and will again. For all the swagger of Trump and his cronies, they are babes in the woods when it comes to understanding the ruthlessness of these former KGB operatives.
I suspect the promise of a pardon...discussed obliquely through the joint legal team....
1
Many good points to drive us batty, wondering how to get into Manafort's brain. One small detail, though, that Litman may have argued against too quickly. While we know that Manafort's conversations with his lawyers are monitored in the jail, it's entirely possible that Manafort was handed a document to review before the lawyer packed it up and left. Perhaps he was told - on paper - that his pardon is on the horizon if he holds the line?
1
It’s not difficult to figure out what Paul Manafort is thinking. Life behind bars must have taken a mental toll on the former high-flying hustler who made a fortune on illicit activities to finance his Dolce Vita lifestyle.
It’s possible that he hopes for a pardon from Trump if he remains silent on issues that could incriminate his former boss. But once again there’s no guarantee that it would happen. But he has nothing to lose by hoping.
That he’s a lousy gambler can be proved that he always bet on a bad horse. Too focused on Viktor Yanukovych, he had a nervous breakdown because he lost a source of lucrative income and cherished status when his Ukrainian client was toppled in 2014.
Manafort knows Trump for years through mutual friends. He was desperate to have a place in the sun that he worked for Trump’s campaign for free. Although Trump won and is now in the White House, his political future is uncertain.
There’s little sympathy for Manafort stewing in his own juice.
3
The intransigence that Paul Manafort has shown throughout his legal challenges can only derive from the assurance he must have received from the Trump Administration regarding a post-conviction pardon. We now know that Trump's legal team benefited from Manafort's plea deal communications with Mueller, allowing Trump's lawyers a window into the line of questioning that Mueller is pursuing. That alone is worth a pardon from Trump. Trump, for his part, cares little beyond protecting himself, so for as long as Manafort cooperates with him, he will be seen as a "patriot" besieged by the radical Justice Department. Mr. Manafort can take his Ostrich coat out of storage in a year's time or so. His freedom is safely well assured.
But Manafort would still have to face criminal charges at the State level .
But put that aside . Why would Trump behave as he does if there is not some horrendous crime he is attempting to hide ?
With the news that Manafort's counsel was a conduit to Trump's counsel, the most plausible (and dastardly) explanation is this: Manafort's was a captured Trump pawn. Manafort's "cooperation" was but a ruse in order for (1) Trump's camp to gain insights to Mueller's substance and strategy--invaluable information; and (2) The lying but a reason to impugn a key witness's credibility and cast aspersions on the substantative nature of Mueller's work.
My hope is that the state charges (presumably innoculated against a prez pardon) stick and Manafort pays for his crimes and deceptions.
3
Why do you say there's no explanation when today's headline says that Manafort's lawyer briefed the White House?
Wink and a nod, Manafort can put two and two together without his lawyers actually coming out and saying what they're saying.
Trump hasn't even been subtle about dangling pardons, he's gone at great length about how he can pardon anybody, even, absurdly, himself.
5
It is more than a coincidence Trump submitted responses to questions from the Special Council and Manafort tanked his plea agreement. The fact that over 30 peopled questioned had agreements with Trump lawyers for lawyers to share information throughout the process gave them to time to stream line a narrative and participate in collusion. It all seems counterproductive during an investigation with multiple people involved it appears they were given an opportunity to collaborate. I wondered why Trump Junior had no fear of an indictment and spoke with venom and arrogance for 2 years. The entire 2016 election was a betrayal of the Democratic process from the Trump campaign, Facebook, Russia, Saudi Arabia and it is impossible not to feel betrayed by the Muellar investigation allowing an opportunity for lawyers to tutor their clients before questioning by the Special Council.
In re Art 123's comment, I would be a little hesitant to say at this stage that much of anything in Manafort's life has served him very well. After all, he is now, at his age, staring right at 10 years or more in prison. And despite earning millions in recent years, Manafort is reportedly in debt, broke or close to broke. So I'd be hesitant to say that Manafort's alleged lifetime of lying has worked out all that well for him.
1
"Manafort is reportedly in debt"
L. folks with his major shady connections to oligarchs hide the money in secret accounts. Standard practice. There's no question Manafort spends more than he earns but I wouldn't assume that Manafort is penniless.
The essay writer too easily dismisses Manfort's concern that he will quickly be assassinated by Russia (in prison or not) if he tells the USA Feds __everything__ he knows. So Manafort lied when the Feds got too close to Russian shenanigans with the presidential election.
Russia is connected to a number of recent political assassinations (acid and poison gas) and yet the writer makes no mention of that. This is a poorly thought article.
1
@K HendeImrson
I cant believe the author did not consider his family being the targets.
The reason for this kind of behavior is pretty obvious. As Michelle Goldberg pointed out in an editorial, many political actors are in the game just to feel important. Add to that the fact that Americans are living longer. I suspect that people like Trump, Stone, Corsi, Manafort and Giulianni are simply old men who always had outsized estimations of their abilities craving the spotlight and staying on the stage too long.
6
'Luckless wretch' is the best description of Manafort that anyone has applied.
6
Manafort like Trump is a narcissistic sociopath and both have lied cheated and deceived their entire lives Just as Trump's lawyers concluded that Trump was incapable of telling the truth Likewise Manafort was incapable of not scheming and being manipulative with Mueller even if it led him into hotter water than he already was in
It's not that Mueller wasn't thinking He was thinking that he could deceive Mueller In many ways he couldn't have acted in any other way Manafort is a thoroughly dishonorable man He was just being who he is and has been his entire adult life
As Freud said character is destiny
As for Trump he appears to be bent on obstructing justice in plain sight and his on character driven malignant narcissism and megalomania make him think that he is omnipotent and won't ever be held accountable for his actions I can't imagine Trump not dangling an eventual pardon before Manafort A folie a deux of two sociopaths thinking they could run circles around the "square" Mueller
12
Habitual liar who likes to play all sides.
7
"There’s no good explanation for why he lied to Mueller."
Sure there is. Manafort's lawyer was told by the Trump lawyers to stop cooperating and Trump will pardon any conviction.
19
The hypothesis game is fun! What if Manafort purposefully deep-sixed his testimony by undermining his credibility via cooperative plea followed by lying? Wouldn’t that nullify the strongest case against Donald Trump, leaving Trump pleased (i.e., pardon-happy), Manafort facing a comparatively lesser charge, and enough doubt amongst jurors that nothing Manafort says can be trusted. Quite Trumpian, no?
3
In his mind he probably thinks he has nothing to lose by lying. His world as he knew it has totally unravelled. What is there really for him to go back to on the outside? A totally discredited and generally despised man unable to redeem his reputation and his standing amongst colleagues, family members and former friends. Even the prospect of maybe being pardoned by Trump is no real big deal given the likely future demise of the Pardoner. I subscribe to option 3. Nothing to lose last roll of the dice.
Applying Occam’s razor to the situation, one can only conclude that Manafort was thinking one thing: pardon. As for the objection that an overt promise was not likely, a quick perusal of trump’s wielding of the pardon power so far should strongly imply to everyone (especially Manafort) that a pardon IS forthcoming.
15
I would apply Occam's razor (the simplest explanation is usually correct) when trying to figure out what Manafort was thinking. Manafort has gotten away with lying, deceit, and breaking the law for much of his adult life. He has been richly rewarded for his dishonorable conduct, if you measure rewards in terms of money--which he and Gates and Stone and Cohen and the entire Trump family obviously do. I hope that this Mueller investigation leads to more emphasis on white collar crime. In practical terms, Manafort's forfeiture alone should pay for Mueller's investigation.
11
What's the big deal? In two short years Pres. Trump will pardon him and all will be forgiven, except for the state cases.
3
I think he's expecting a pardon, and that since the pardon is coming he might as well do his best to throw the entire investigation off the scent.
2
My second post about this situation is regarding a NYT article about Manafort on August 12th of this year. On a timeline it provided information about one of the mortgages provided by Federal Savings Bank of Chicago. It is run by the Calk Brothers. Stephen served as an economic adviser to DJT.
If one looks at the Yelp rating for the Bank its ranking is very low since they deal in predatory reverse mortgages. I find it interesting that they have a name that sounds similar to the Federal Reserve Bank but isn't.
I would hope that the investigation looks into the dark side of this commercial bank. Perhaps the FDIC should send their examiners in as well.
10
First, kudos to the NY Times for bringing in the comments from Mr. Litman, whose comments on cable news I have continually admired and found insightful.
My own opinion on Mr. Manafort, given his inexplicable behavior during his legal jeopardy, is that he should be on a suicide watch.
4
Agree with your assessment and disagree with you response. They should not watch him and they should give back his shoelaces.
@drollere I agree If he dies before sentencing the convictions and possible penalties will be withdrawn See the Ken Lay story. He "died" in some remote hospital in Colorado while on a last excursion from Texas with his family. When was the last time you have ever heard of a man allowed to travel interstate after conviction but before sentencing. At that same hospital the day before his death, then Secy of State Colin Powell was treated for a stomach ailment . Lay died the next day and was "cremated" Conviction vacated, sentencing obviously withdrawn, Ken's family gets to keep all the money
One of things Mueller did in the cooperation agreement was to require Manafort turn over all his properties on US soil, as well as millions of dollars in cash, NO MATTER THE END RESULT OF ALL LEGAL ISSUES. Manafort has been stripped bare, leaving his family destitute. Recall Franky Five Angels in Godfather 2? He made the agreement with Michael Corleone that if he said he lied about the Mafia's "nefarious activities", his family would be taken care of, even as he spent his life in prison.
Perhaps Manafort, knowing a pardon would be useless in state convictions, made the same type of deal? As we know, paying off possible witnesses has never been a problem for Trump. If Manafort agreed to take one for the team, in exchange for his family receiving a large pay-off, even if it meant prison, it might be enough of a reason to deliberately perjure himself again
6
@DarkBlueWave -- Mrs. Manafort is a competent lawyer with her own practice. Their children are full-grown and on their own; Jessica Manafort is a respected independent film maker who has recently changed her surname to Bond, her mother's maiden name, to avoid ties to her father.
The family will be fine.
1
This article and comments on it seem to assume that Mueller is correct about "lies" and has solid evidence to prove it. It assumes he is not over-reaching or gambling himself.
If he has such clear proof apart from Manafort that he can prove lies, he never needed Manafort anyway.
Thus, Mueller may have a few problems hidden from sight. He has quite rightly kept almost everything hidden from sight, so a few problems in the mix is not entirely surprising.
Those relying on Mueller to provide a Deus ex Machina solution to Trump just don't want to think of any problems he may have in providing that. Yet the whole thing is a complex mess for everyone, not just for everyone except Mueller.
6
LOL. Just what Putin would like you to think:
Assume it's Mueller who is overplaying his hand, and not the inveterate liar who will do time starting at age 69 or older.
Sure, let's go with that.
Trump will pardon Manafort. Republicans will be relieved, and do nothing. Manafort will be paid off, like Stormy Daniels.
He will gamble that he can beat any state charges and if he loses, appeal. Should he reach the Supreme Court, we will see what The Rule of Law really means, if anything, on a court stacked with white, privileged men.
Democracy, it was nice knowing you.
If the Supreme Court overturns the Separate Sovereigns Doctrine of double jeopardy in the Gamble case now pending, then the extra convictions would help Manafort. They would more completely cover the ground of possible state prosecutions, and so make a Federal pardon more likely to apply to any state prosecutions.
Manafort is playing a very complex game, and may have thought about pending cases.
The new Supreme Court might well reconsider a Doctrine that is used for things like second Federal prosecutions after failed state prosecutions, calling murder a violation of civil rights and trying the defendant again for the same underlying acts.
How does Manafort ensure that the pardon applies to the widest range of underlying acts? Get convicted of all of them, of everything imaginable.
It may seem a high risk, but really the downside is minimal. He's old enough that he could die in jail for what he already lost, so more wouldn't hurt him.
Anyway, the Feds sentence for other uncharged bad acts brought up only during sentencing, so he might be sentenced under Guidelines applying all these convictions even if not convicted.
This is desperate, but not as crazy as it seems.
4
Both legal counsel teams played the Mueller game on Mueller rules.
I am still waiting for the Mueller cyber security experts resolve on this case. I bet none of the legal counselling teams on both Manafort and Trump sides has a clear strategy on tackling the cyber security team findings.
Boy this case will be referred to in the future in all the legal training books.
2
I wrote here shortly after this article was first written that there was obviously a highly credible hypothesis which explained what Manafort was thinking and why he lied to Mueller. As I stated, under a Hypothesis No. 4: Manafort, the incredibly well trained and experienced Russian operative and gangster, always intended to lie so as to benefit his superiors.
I was surprised it was missed. I guess there are benefits to starting out as a prosecutor, then switching sides and representing well over ten thousand defendants for nearly a decade as a public defender, and then becoming an appellate attorney: You see everything. Sure enough, we've just learned what I suspected all along, Manafort was feeding his lawyer information to brief Trump and his attorneys on everything he was telling Mueller as part of his cooperation agreement.
I suspected something of the sort. It is why I previously wrote that I'd seen something very similar before in the case of a high ranking member of organized crime who entered into a cooperation agreement. He first gave the prosecution some truthful and valuable information to secure the cooperation plea deal. He then played the prosecutors for over a year, doing great damage to the prosecution's case against his superiors.
Trump has spent his life working with Russian gangsters. People need to think about Trump and his cohorts in terms of how organized crime functions, not how normally corrupt politicians act. Once you do, it all becomes clear.
30
@Robert B I applaud your perspicacious observations. Of course, Manafort lied. Lying is lifeblood of the current administration. What keeps me up at night obsessing over Trumptopia is the realization is that this is not a movie, a novel or a screenplay. The Godfather was a powerful film with a compelling storyline but it was a story... well-crafted fiction. Trumptopia is not fiction. True it seems like fiction. It smells like fiction but it's not. What keeps me up at night is the horrifying fear that we are witnessing the destruction of the American Democracy in real time. The twists and turns of this torrid tale are far to complex to be encompassed in a Facebook Post or Twitter, thus a large portion of the American population is oblivious. They will not really comprehend what has occurred until after the final scene has unfolded. I hope and pray that Mueller has the intellectual and emotional expertise to deal with the dark side or dark matter of the current sociopathic, narcissistic POTUS, his mentor Putin and the brotherhood of Manafort, Stone, Assange and "the kids" who make the Corleone Family seem like the Flintstones. They play by different rules folks. They care nothing for the American Public. They are likely to destroy us all in their insatiable pursuit of ego, greed and vindictive power.
3
Interesting the option that I consider most likely isn't included in the list. My guess would be that Mueller's questions went much further than Manafort expected.
4
Perhaps Manafort is prodding Mueller's prosecutors to go overboard at a level that is not credible to the republican senate, the republican voter base and the judges that are managing the case. Multiple accusations of "lying" during the plea bargain, when there is no rationale to lie, perhaps points to this. The accusation of "lying" is also often subjective and susceptible to bias, and the republicans know that very well. In that case, Trump could gain traction to shut down the investigation and pardon Manafort. The judge could rule in a similar manner. Perhaps that is the real strategy that appears to be cryptic.
2
Maybe Manafort's attorney is conveying information to him from Trump's lawyers: "Muddy it all up..."
That's how Trump does business, with lies, deception, distraction, and scape goating.
Both Manafort and Trump benefit from underming the Special Prosecutor.
14
Or a “Hail Mary” explanation - where though he did not communicate with the president, he took a leap and lied, hoping somehow Trump would see his actions and later reward him with a pardon. All of this is through no direct communication but through a distant hope.
4
The author’s premise is completely wrong. There’s a perfectly good explanation: the fix is in; Manafort agreed to lie in exchange for a pardon.
14
When I read anything about Trump, his family, his supporters, his “associates” I am drawn into an underworld of lies, crime and pure evil.
This smarmy underworld makes me feel dirtied by knowledge and discouraged beyond words for our country.
what was manafort thinking? most likely he was not aware of how much mueller knew and he hoped he could get away with lying.
why did mueller announce that manafort lied a few days after receiving trump's written answers to his questions? perhaps he hoped that trump, not knowing what mueller knows, would also make false statements. showing his hand too early would have been a blunder.
why was mueller vague about how manafort lied? perhaps he is still negotiating with several of trump's people. being vague increases the pressure on trump's people.
8
Chess indeed. But recall Richard Nixon who did 1,001 ignoble deeds, was caught, lied at every possible time, then resigned, and.... was simply pardoned by Gerald Ford the very man who selected him. He walked away with freedom and fortune intact.
You can play what if for 100 days in all this but it comes to nothing since Pence will surely pardon Trump, for "the good of the nation". Pence risks nothing because his prize is becoming US president.
Even a well thought out democracy can be gamed so it is wholly owned by the monied crowd. That, is your American experiment in the final analysis. That we have the vote allows us to believe we control it all when we do not, and that vote charade-lie is what keeps up playing the con. At least in China there is no pretense of freedom.
40
And Prez Ford was defeated 2 years later, Nixon was in exile and disgraced.
It is clear to all. Manafort thinks DOJ and the special counsel has no power and Mr.Trump carries all the power and he will be pardoned anyway.
This is not the same democracy we had few years ago.
24
I don't think we've ever had a democracy.
Mr Litman has buried in the penultimate paragraph what should've been his lede, and what stands as the most sanguine news for those who nurture hopes for the survival of our battered and bedraggled American democracy.
He notes that even if Robert Mueller files his memorandum under seal, it will operate "as a hedge against the possibility that Mr. Mueller’s report might eventually be bottled up at the Department of Justice, for example under the order of Acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker. It will ultimately be for the court, not Mr. Whitaker, to unseal the document."
Trump's appointment of Whitaker is of grave concern, a subversion of the rule of law that is breathtaking in its shamelessness, arrogance and audacity, even for a nation numbed by Trump's long and relentless series of "fox-guarding-the-hen-house" appointments to the Cabinet and judiciary. This beachhead of of fact and truth against Trump's campaign of gaslighting and abuse of power may prove to be the nation's salvation.
33
How about Hypothesis #4:
Manafort's offer to "cooperate" was never genuine. The Trump legal team sent Manafort in to speak with the prosecution. The goal was to learn from the questions asked what was known by the special counsel, possibly even give false leads, and where the main focus of the investigation was heading. He goes in, plays his role, has his lawyers report back to the Trump legal team, and in exchange he gets pardons for everything.
48
@prometheus25 I'm with you on this one. I have a similar hypothesis, which will appear when the NYT gets through vetting it.
Exactly - he is all set up for the pardon and Trump holds all the cards as he knows the line of questions- justice has been destroyed
CORRECT!!!!!
Of course, Trump is no dummy.
Manafort's actions aren't that surprising, are totally predictable and from where he sits justifiable. Manafort has lost everything. His reputation, his fortune, his business, his life. Whether he told Mueller the truth or not he still faced a long term in prison. What does it matter at this point whether he gets 10 years or 20 years...he will come out a broken man if he comes out alive at all. I believe this is his way of sabotaging the Mueller investigation, or striking back anyway he can. At this point he probably feels he has nothing to lose and this is his way of "cooperating but not cooperating."
11
And the special counsel is demonstrating they won’t take the bait
Back in the day when I was fresh out of law school I clerked for an experienced federal trial court judge. He told me that every criminal he sentenced had one thing in common: each and every one of them thought he was 'smarter than the average bear'. In those lacking a conscience or morality this inevitably becomes hubris. From casual observation of the facts and circumstances of his manifold financial crimes, one has to ask just how Manafort thought he would evade detection in the first place and conviction when they caught up with him? The answer is he deluded himself into thinking that he'd never get caught and when he did that he'd get off because he was just that much smarter. Same with lying to the prosecutors after cutting a plea deal -- he was so clever he'd outsmart them.
18
@EABlair
Agree. Along with traitorous collusion goes self-delusion.
Money? Power? Fear? There’s got to be even more to come and I suspect it’s really big.
4
Could somebody specify the state charges he would face, and in which state?
3
Tax evasion in NJ, to start with.
Let me get this straight.
A person who faces additional jail time actually "lies" in order to extend the amount of time he will spend in jail, instead of echoing the "truth" that the prosecutor wants.
Which begs the question: Which is the lie and which is the truth?
The central idea of this column is based on the notion that a US Attorney would never, ever fib. Ever. A high bar, indeed.
I try to imagine Heaven, crowded by US Attorneys who have earned their way into the special section of Heaven devoted to those who never twisted the truth during their lifetimes. Ever.
4
Mueller has no reason to lie. Manafort has many reasons, especially if Trump sent him in to find out Mueller's strategy in exchange for a full pardon. Yes, some prosecutors lie, but Bob Mueller's stellar reputation as a prosecutor has never been so tainted, there is no evidence that Mueller has lied, and as the article points out, the facts proving the truth will come out to the Court, not be hushed up by the AG. The truth will out.
3
Maybe he lied in this instance, because lying is what he has been doing, on a regular basis, for most of his life, and, for most of his life, he has gotten away with it. Lying has, in the past, worked for him. Maybe he and the rest of Trump and Co. can no longer distinguish between a truth and a lie, and when pressured, their 'default setting' is to lie.
Psychologists have studied the phenomenon of people lying, and when caught, the vehemently continue to insist that their lies are true, even in the face of clear, uncontroverted proof of the lies. Maybe Manafort and his cronies share this trait.
What's the statute of limitations on criminal charges for this newest revelation? If the statute is more than three years, why not wait to charge Manafort with multiple criminal counts after the next presidential election?
12
This headline and opinion piece assumes prosecutors like Mueller always infallibly make truthful allegations. Therefore, this reasoning goes, Manafort lied because Mueller says so. That in itself is an obvious fallacy. This is also a common bait and switch tactic used by federal prosecutors for years; luring a defendant into a lopsided cooperation plea agreement at the defendant’s peril, then extorting more from the compromised defendant. It is cynical gamesmanship but has longstanding judicial approval. There are no good guys in such cases.
5
Exactly. When do we have a conversation about prosecutorial misconduct? They are among the worst law breakers in the country.
I would not be surprised if Manafort was instructed by the White House to cooperate with Mueller. Once he became an insider in the Mueller investigation, he would pass back to the WH, thorough his lawyers, everything he learned about its inner workings. As long as trump is in the WH, Manafort has nothing to lose because a pardon is in his future.
15
I am SO SICK of this whole rancid, corrupt Trump circus we have infesting the top offices of this nation. I just have nothing to say to those still support this plague. Nothing.
68
Talk about the gang that couldn't shoot straight!
5
Number two! He does not want polonium injected into his leg or Novichok sprayed on his face. Someone got to him. Perhaps they promised a pardon also. Time for state charges to be brought to guarantee he is in jail despite any of Trump's machinations.
15
and/or....he was buying time? A Mueller dismissal, a more favorable court, laborious fealty, alt-right rescue attempt, or the inevitable chaos that approaches each day this country descends? re low spaces...anyone want to crowdsource putting a favored effigy or more in the Mariana Trench?
7
Of the dozens of comments I've read, only one (fact or friction) has suggested that Manafort might be doing this for money. Supposedly, he is strapped for cash and still owes millions to Russian oligarchs. Might he behave this way (accepting an almost certain lengthy prison term) for a promise that his family would be nicely taken care of? The inherent flaw in this suggestion is that it requires Manafort to rely on the promises of a oft proven cheapskate and welsher. And good luck if the special skills of a M. Cohen like character would be needed to make the deal happen.
7
Manafort's family have been threatened. What is wrong with everyone bloviating about this situation? The Russian mafia has no compunctions about such threats, and no hesitation in carrying out their threats. Manafort has no hope, he can only save his family.
15
“There’s no good explanation for why he lied to Mueller.”
I don’t know why the writer of this piece thinks there’s anything surprising about this. Prisons are full of people who behaved in ways that defy a “good explanation”. That is why they ended up there.
16
He lied because he, like other of his GOP ilk believe they are entitled.
14
Baloney. The Senate has shown time and time again that it has no intention of convincting Trump if he’s impeached by the House. Furthermore, the House will definitnely NOT impeach Trump because the need him as their post child in the WH to increase their chances of winning the White House in ‘20. Why on earth would they hand the WH on a silver platter to Pence?!
Sorry, Harry, but I think you may be delusional about believing this is a no win for Trump. He’ll simply pardon Manifort and it will all be over.
4
Maybe he’s doing what his lawyers and Trump’s
Lawyers want him to do since they’re playing run and tell. He’s foolish to trust Trump if that’s the case.
2
The way the man spent money he could only borrow was not rational. He might be not playing with a full deck.
7
Why’d he lie? Because, like Trump, that’s how he rolls. I suspect Pauly of ostrich coat fame has spent his life lying, conning, grifting, conniving, and scheming to get where he was. I also suspect that he’s done business with all sorts of unsavory types, including Russians. Russians who serve potent tea. Russians with unstable balconies. I honestly believe if he tells the WHOLE truth, our man Manafort has limited days left, and he knows it.
9
I think it EXTREMELY LIKELY that all communication with Wikileaks/Assaunge was being monitored way before any Trump surrogate called him for reasons having nothing to do with Trump or the election. If so, the Feds may not have pounced immediately (1) on the false belief that Trump would lose, and (2) it would seem like a political stunt prior to the election. They probably planned to arrest whoever after Trump lost the election, but we all know how that turned out. Summing up, I bet the Feds have a ton of evidence of collusion.
11
I like all the spy/assassination theories, but it could simply be that Manafort thought he was smarter than Mueller and could lie with impunity and still get his sentence reduced for cooperation.
When you've been a lying grifter your entire life and never faced any negative consequences, it might never occur to you not to continue lying.
10
Trump will pardon manafort, the dems and the media will go crazy talking about he’s breaking Norms, Fox News will defend Trump with a bunch of lies, Trump will then tweet something even crazier and everyone will move on... happens every single time.
10
I don't think Manafort lied at all. Mueller is the liar. He has no evidence on Russian collusion. So he squeezes Manafort to make him say something that isn't true. This is what prosecutors do all the time. They force defendants to lie.
2
But why? Mueller is a Republican with a solid reputation of honesty, chosen by Republicans for this job. He gains nothing by lying or pressuring anyone to lie. He is also a sworn officer of the Court. He could be imprisoned for lying in this case. His version of the facts are presented to a grand jury with evidence including surveillance, emails, and witness testimony, who determine what the facts are. It isn't just Mueller vs. Manafort. It is Mueller together with all the collected evidence, sworn testimony, and the grand jury vs. Manafort, who clearly has a history of repeatedly stealing from our country and lying about it. Mueller knew the answers to the questions before he asked Manafort the questions. That evidence will be revealed in future court filings.
4
Dryden's lines (about the Earl of Shaftesbury) come to mind:
"To his first bias, longingly he leans
And rather would be great by wicked means--
At least as little honest as he could
And, like white witches, mischievously good."
I don't remember which of Mr. Litman's three hypotheses this would fit in with. Number Three? Maybe.
That is--
--Mr. Manafort may have striven to keep a foot in both camps. Sorry! But another story comes to mind--
--about Themistocles and the great naval battle of Salamis. In which the Persian King's ships were routed and destroyed. Except--
--except for ONE ship. Which Themistocles captured--and released. That's right, folks! He sent it back to the King of Persia--
--with a message. "Courtesy of Themistocles."
An insurance policy. Should he and his Athenian supporters fall out. And they DID fall out. Themistocles found himself an exile.
Guess where he went.
The King of Persia welcomed him with open arms.
Might not Mr. Manaforte (brain a little fuzzy, apprehensive)--
--have had the same rationale? Don't make a reconciliation with Herr Trump UTTERLY impossible. Hedge a little. Hold back some stuff. Do the big man one last, fleeting favor. Show the man some good will. And who knows?
Maybe that Presidential pardon WILL come wafting from the heavens. Maybe the big man'll show some mercy. Maybe. . . .maybe. .. .
I doubt it.
Tough bananas, Mr. Manaforte.
Exceedingly tough.
Sorry about that.
1
Putin has backed poison gas at home and abroad. Barrel bombs as well against entire neighborhoods.
Poisoning agents abroad.
Mr. Manafort realizes how little his life, and the lives of his family matter and cannot tell the truth.
2
I'm not at all sure hypothesis #1 is in any way unlikely: right above this opinion section article is a report that Manfort's attorney briefed the Trump White House on his testimony to Mueller. Why would this highly unethical briefing not have included a conversation about "compensation" for both Manafort's lies and the briefing itself? I don't think we need to look further than this obvious scenario for an explanation for Manafort's behavior—though of a lifetime of compulsive lying combined with the fear of betraying the murderous Putin regime only add to the logic Manafort used in coming to the conclusion that lying would work in his favor. It has all his life.
468
Yes I agree completely. What was he thinking? Pardon: that what he’s thinking. Joint defense agreement is all it takes to establish communication. Of course this is the incredibly unique situation where on such party can grant a pardon - but only for federal crimes.
25
@Art123-Building on your speculation, I suspect Trump also sent word to Manafort: "You protect me and I'll make sure you're not only pardoned but protected from Putin and his associates. Trust me."
32
@Art123
A Times' Op-Ed in August specifically stated, "Mr. Trump and his lawyers have signaled to Mr. Manafort that a future pardon is very likely."
And with all due respect to Mr. Litman, his scenario of lawyer involvement doesn't sound necessary...Pardon's in the air.
25
Trump had only recently completed his written responses to Mueller's questions. Soon thereafter Mueller proclaimed the Manafort plea agreement dead due to falsehoods. Is it possible that Trump's and Manafort's responses were coordinated behind the scenes by their attorneys? Is it possible that many of their answers match and that Trump thought Mueller had accepted those responses as true? No wonder Trump is in such a meltdown!
11
This piece is already dated. Of course, a Pardon was already discussed between lawyers.
5
Your overthinking this Harry -- the obvious answer is the correct one: Manafort is playing for the get out of jail free card from Trump.
His "cooperation" agreement may have been nothing more than a stalling tactic to get through the mid-term elections whereupon Trump, he might have imaged, would be relatively free to quash Mueller's investigation (remove Sessions, etc...), etc.
3
Everyone is assuming that the Mueller team assertion that Manafort has lied is itself true. Frankly, lawyers aren't in the truth business but just in business and I wouldn't trust any of them.
3
He's guaranteed to have a PARDON. That is why he did it.
2
@mike But a guarantee from trump is worthless.
Maybe Manafort is simply not very smart. Or maybe he's a compulsive liar who can't tell the truth when his life depends on it (--just a figure of speech). Or both. Like the Prez, who can't tell the truth because he doesn't care what's true and what's not--even his great wealth is largely fictional.
Of course, this is just speculation.
7
After we reading the Times story tonight about the contacts between the Trump and Manafort legal teams it looked like the explanation is simple.
Trump, through his lawyers, has promised
Manafort a pardon for withdrawing his plea deal. Just one more piece of evidence for Mueller’s obstruction case.
28
Maybe, just maybe, he didn't. We have no information on Mueller's sources, who they are and if they are reliable. In fact, we have no information at all that has been made public about his investigation, so we do not know the accuracy behind the accusation by Mueller. We just "assume" that what Mueller says is correct. That is an incorrect assumption to make given the circumstances and lack of transparency. This investigation has been going on for two years and has cost the US taxpayer a fortune with no published reports so far. A Court could have proceeded in less time and provided a judgement at less cost. Justice is not, in my opinion, being served by this continual procrastination on part of the Mueller team to be forthcoming.
6
How many people has Mueller indicted and convicted thus far? Not to mention the assets seized. Your line of thought does not compute.
Manafort can say whatever he wants. Then he gets to go to a nice white collar prison for a few years, and then write a profitable tell-all book. Maybe with recipes by Martha Stewart.
5
Martha Stewart doesn't deserve to be compared to this criminal for what she did.
6
@Carmine Only that even that was anticipated by Mueller, he can't write that book according to the plea agreement.
2
My hypothesis No 3, is that Hypothesis No 1, No 2 and No 3 are all wrong.
There just is not enough info made public for a real analysis. — this is just pure speculation, it is not news.
5
@Richard which is why this article is in the *opinion* section of the NYT.
7
Sorry you didn’t understand that this was an OPINION PIECE and not “news”
And now we see Manafort's lawyers are sharing crib sheets with Tramp's lawyers re/ Mueller's investigation, so they may - in Giuliani's words - "gain valuable insight as to the direction of the investigation" to better prepare a legal defense.
Sorry - why did we elect someone whose time is spent preparing legal defenses against lawsuits from porn stars, charges of treasonous collusion with Russia and using the Presidency as a platform to promote his commercial brands? Oh yeah; we wanted to drain the swamp.
145
@James
It was because of those emails!
1
"What was he thinking?" What was 'Scooter' Libby thinking? As loyal soldiers, to serve and protect the Boss, in expectation of a POTUS pardon. Which is in the mail. Maybe.
17
Here’s the game changer for Manafort: Gamble v. the United States is heading to the Heritage Foundation Kavanaugh Court. No doubt Trump communicated transactional intentions to pardon a closed-mouth Manafort, and he has continued to boost the home team with shouts of Witch Hunt on Twitter. But State prosecution remained a virulent threat. Now, that may change. If (or, shall we say, when) SCOTUS decides in favor of Gamble, then a Trump pardon truly would be a Get Out of Jail Free card. States would no longer be able to prosecute crimes that overlap with those already addressed in Federal courts. Gamble is on the horizon, and my bet is on the Pardon theory. Still, I just can’t stop hoping that Roberts will morph into the new Kennedy.
46
@Laura
From your mouth to God's ears. I hope you are right about Roberts and wrong about Gamble. . . .
3
As for what Mr. Manafort is thinking - perhaps the headline could read 'What is Paul Manafort hoping for?'
Trump vouches for his qualities as a 'good friend'...the cynical among us would read that as code for Pardon.
“Paul Manafort was with me for a short period of time. He did a good job... “I was very happy with the job he did. And I will tell you this, I believe that he will tell the truth. And if he tells the truth, no problem.”
And, as Mr Litman scarily points out - there's the Russians.
So, whether or not Mr. Manafort has lied to the Special Counsel, short of a pardon and witness protection, jail time in a US Federal Penitentiary may be a preferable and safer option. Maybe that's what he was thinking?
1
Manafort is a mole - and he has played Mueller. In light of the story that just broke about Manfort funneling information to Turmp's lawyers while pretending to cooperate with Mueller, the scenario that Manafort has been playing Mueller and betting on a presidential pardon just became much more likely. The reported offers of a presidential pardon by former Trump lawyer Dowd to Manafort's lawyers now also seem much more likely - but of course, no formal offer needed to be made. If we are aware of this offer, Manafort surely is.
Let's stop and think a moment where we are as a nation, when our president can interfere in an ongoing criminal investigation in plain sight.
58
Reminder: Mr. Mueller read the last chapter and already knows how the real story ended.
Michael Flynn's discussions with Kislyak were recorded. If those discussions included a "quid pro quo" of campaign assistance for sanctions relief, everything that came before it is supporting detail.
Anybody's testimony (or written answers) that conflicts with the Flynn-Kislyak discussions is probably a lie.
13
What Mr. Manafort was thinking is crystal clear:
1) Divert the Mueller investigation with false information.
2) Steadily leak the lines of questioning from Mr. Mueller’s team to the White House.
3) Be rewarded for his misdirection with a pardon.
15
I hope I'm wrong but I believe all mentioned are involved with the Rus mob... They all know they are better off in jail than to talk. I think they have the backing of some terrible people who would like to do harm to our country. I'll try to control my anger at voters who let this in our government, most didn't know what this could truly be...
18
If Mr. Mueller knows Mr. Manafort lied, then, he also knows what the truth is, which Mr. Litman has implied here. Stay tuned.
38
The president of the United States is mentally unfit and is anti-American to his corrupt, ignorant core. He, his two reprehensible sons, and those who he associates with closely should be in prison right now. THEY ARE AMERICAN TRAITORS -
116
@Gerald Paglucio
A lot of things should be different than they are, but they aren't. We are run by those with power and not by those who want to do good.
These people don’t think the rules apply to them.
34
I think Manafort did not understand that the House would flip to the Democrats. He was probably under orders to pretend to play along until after the election at which point Trump would pardon him on the grounds that his lies to Mueller prove his loyalty to the POTUS.
However that plan only works if the GOP controls the House. If the Democrats control the House, then a Trump pardon makes things worse due to a pardoned Manafort can be compelled to testify before Congress and he will not be able to plead the Fifth. If he lies to Congress, Mueller will tell on him, leaving him vulnerable to another round of federal prosecution.
Basically, Manafort is out of options. Trump can not pardon him--a pardoned Manafort is more dangerous to Trump than an unpardoned Manafort. So, Manafort will go to jail for a very long time--unless he decides to work with Mueller seriously this time. Which is probably looking like the better option for Manafort, especially if he can get some federal witness protection.
I would say that Trump's fate was sealed on election night when the Dems swept the House and this may be why he looked so grim.
830
@McCamy Taylor
Yikes, Manafort and Trump are toast.
40
@McCamy Taylor - Following your scenario, if Trump pardons him, and he refuses to testify before the House, or lies when he does, and he is convicted under federal law, what is to stop Trump from pardoning him again? Well there is impeachment, I guess, but at that point, I'm not sure what Trump has to lose.
36
@McCamy Taylor
Nor did Donald seem to realize how or why the Republicans suffered more in the House than the Senate can confirm in time to stack this deck. It's not only the subpoena powers that come into play; it's the executive orders that remain the Republicans' only justification for blinding themselves to this constitutional disaster. You can only fix the courts so far, the moral seems, before your settlements come back to haunt you. We can remember the implicit bail-out as the explicit hold-up now, since history and hype combine so easily in facts unlike fake media; the commercials decline with their ratings. You're fired? What was the job like?
14
This analysis leaves out one option that I think is realistic: a pardon in 2 years after Trump loses or chooses not to run for a second term. At this time the Mueller investigation and its aftermath will be over and the Attorneys General of states like New York or Virginia that could charge him with tax evasion or some other fraud-related crime (especially if he were to be pardoned now or in the next few months) might have little energy for doing so.
166
@Noel E Interesting, but that doesn't explain why Manafort didn't stonewall from the beginning. Be bargaining and then backing out he gave Mueller ammunition. He would look more like a "take a bullet for trump" loyalist if he just kept his mouth shut.
16
@David Goldberg
I think Manafort's "cooperation" with Mueller fits right in: M.'s lawyers got to find out what Mueller is looking into, so they could go and rat to Trump's team. The initial stonewalling was just a front to make it more believable.
29
@David Goldberg
The difference is we just had midterms. The consensus today is that Trump will most likely lose in 2020 making a pardon possible sooner rather than later.
The big gamble as I see it, is that the state of New York will go easy.
10
The only value created from this bizarre exercise was to delay sentencing and further release of evidence until after the midterms.
Seemingly the only quid pro quo was an intimated or communicated intent to pardon, from a few months back.
Occam's razor seems like a reasonable guide here.
5
Mueller has Manafort and Trump exactly where he wants them. Speculations of a pardon are erroneous because Trump cannot pardon offenses handled in the Southern District of NY. The ever brilliant Mueller let Manafort hang himself by lying while he was getting written answers from Trump (read Trump's lawyers) that will easily be exposed as filled with false statements. Score: Mueller 2 - Trump/Manafort 0
19
@nzierler -- Manafort was convicted by a jury in a trial in the (federa)l United States District Court in Alexandria. Manafort plead guilty in federal court in Washington DC to one count of conspiracy against the US and one count of conspiracy to obstruct justice due to attempts to tamper with witnesses.
So far all his convictions are federal, that Trump could pardon.
You perhaps are referring to the fact that Manafort could be charged with numerous state crimes -- particularly money laundering and tax fraud in the state of New York?
This is true, but the jurisdiction would not be "the southern district of New York" -- that's the federal court.
There are issues however, and a presidential pardon might protect Manafort from prosecution in NY on "similar crimes" unless state law is changed, see here:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/04/new-york-should-amend-its-double-jeopardy-law-to-make-sure-trump-cant-bail-out-michael-cohen.html
I think it very unlikely that Trump will pardon Manafort however.
Hypothesis 4. Manafort is a liar, he simply cannot tell the truth
We have a President with the same problem. Whatever he says (or tweets) is the truth of the moment. I’m sure he would dwear to it and pass a lie-detector. They do not understand the concept of truth.
12
Maybe he's thinking I'm getting a pardon so i can ... Mueller
We are what we do and we do what we become. Paul Manafort is a liar. It is deeply built into who he is. Sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one. You can try to rationalize it, but it is like trying to rationalize the behavior of an alcoholic without acknowledging that they are an alcoholic.
8
Manafort is/was an upper echelon operative in an international crime syndicate. Mueller has the goods. PM thought he was above the fray because of his wealth and connections. Mueller was unimpressed. Manafort is sunk.
17
I'm doing the timeline in my head. So Manafort was given 10 days to play it straight - presumably the clock started less than 2 weeks ago, given Mueller's recent statements to the court. What event occurring around that time could have extinguished Manafort's resolve?
I don't know, but Matthew Whitaker was appointed acting AG on November 8. That kinda lines up, doesn't it?
19
Goldstein's current opinion piece, "What if they're just bad people?" is an excellent portrayal of how you can best understand some people by realizing that they are bad, and that this is their primary motivation. Same way with Paul Manafort. He wants to spend opulently and to act badly, and he does so to such a degree that it's counterproductive for him.
8
I don't know how Mr. Litman managed to string these four words together:. "Mr. Trump's good faith". An oxymoron for the ages.
21
Another simply possibility is that he changed his mind about a very difficult decision. Maybe it is still the hope of a pardon from Trump, even if they haven't been in communication about it. Perhaps he has always been hopeful for a pardon, but unsure. The uncertaintly caused him to begin to co-operate, but as he got involved, perhaps the pardon seems like a better option.
What was he thinking? He was thinking he would get away with it. Isn't that the norm these days?
31
Poor Manafort. Slow to get get the memo that his life as he knew it is over. There’s no oligarch to scam, no government to play, no bank to con. The bill awaits, held by one Robert Meuller, perhaps the last honest man in DC. Maybe Manafort’s afraid of the Russians (any sane person would be). Maybe he thinks that atrocity Whitaker is the answer. Maybe he thinks Trump will come to his rescue (never a smart bet). Or maybe he’s just gotten away with so much for so long he just doesn’t get that His. Life. Is. Over. Will he go out with a shred of dignity, too little too late? Done in by the Russians? Or will he just die of old age in prison, to be an interesting but forgotten footnote on the news?
18
Manafort can't figure out how to convert a word document to a PDF and thought that he could trick the intelligence community by signing his name 'Manaford' rather than Manafort. I think it's safe to say that he isn't the sharpest tool in the shed.
17
Manafort is in contact w trump
He will be pardoned
Trump is a dictator above the law
Military are doing his illegal bidding at southern border
No congressional strength or morality
Of course he lied
13
His plea agmt and co-op agreement were set up with Trump’s lawyers, to enable Man to spy on the investigation snd then reportback thru his lawyers to Trump’s “lawyers.” Then, a pardon.
All of which constitutes obstruction of justice byTrump.
13
An excellent analysis. Thanks.
9
I can think of 2 good reasons he lied:
1-- He lied to protect Russian mobsters, who he fears would kill him if he talked about them.
2--He lied to protect Trump, from whom he has been led to believe he will get a pardon.
not so tough to figure out...
8
I’m leaning pardon. Trump is vocal in his disdain for Mueller. Manafort probably thinks if he plays to that disdain, Trump will reward him. And Trump likely believes with the Senate majority, who have aided, abetted and protected Trump, unchanged, he will not likely be removed from office, even if impeached.
1
Or, maybe Manafort at age 69 is just tired of running and finally figured out that the ostrich jacket and all that other "stuff" he coveted and acquired really wasn't worth all this; plus he is in heavy and insurmountable debt.
By the way, in a touch of irony, perhaps, Paul Manafort was born on April Fool's day in 1949.
9
@PB
That jacket is a supreme example of what parents the world over have told their kids from Time Immemorial: Don't get stuck on "stuff." He didn't even know how to spend the money he didn't have.
In jail his lifestyle will be decluttered at last. Maybe the prison library will own copies of Marie Kondo's books.
Hypothesis No. 4: He Didn't Lie.
You don't know what question he was asked, what he answered, whether it was correct or not, whether the error, if any, was intentional or material.
In short, you don't know anything. But the Putin-Assange-Zuckerberg-Trump collusion theory is tin-foil hat conspiracy material to begin with.
So by all means, just assume some more secret deals, assassinate attempts, and maybe an alien abduction or two while you are at it.
The conspiracy nuts on this comment section will eat it up.
1
I hope Field and McHugh wont mind me tampering with their classic "I feel a song comin' on". ...but...
I feel a pardon comin' on
And now that my troubles are gone
Let those heavenly Trumps go on Trumpn'
Cause I feel a pardon comin' on !
Of which has he more - stupidity, arrogance or greed?
2
@Mtnman1963
Why, it's a tie....
No good explanation? To the rational and those without a pathological disorder. But not to a guy like Paulie, or his former BFF Trump. His sons, daughter or The Kush. Nor Sarah the Swift of Lies.
Everyone seems to think there's a bottom to this hole. FYI; these folks never stop digging...there's always another shovel full, always more room to dig.
To normal people living these lives of lies and dodges, scams and obfuscations would wither them, suck them dry like an earthworm on a hot sidewalk. Not these sort of (in)humans. Lying is their superpower. Lying is like the slime to a slug. Helps them move thru their world and over any sharp objects.
The rest of us would lose too much sleep trying to keep track of all the lies and loose ends. Become ridiculously lost going down so many rabbit-holes. Not these folks. Its no more difficult a task then tying ones shoes.
Because its just as mundane a task. One that doesn't register, the only thought given is that its a task that needs doing.
We normal people, the press, and writers like Mr. Littman (who has likely met his fair share of such people) have to stop being shocked, but especially stop expecting that a Manafort, or the Trumps, or Sarah Sanders will ever hit the bottom of the well of their lies. Its bottomless.
The sooner more of us come to grips with this, the sooner we start demanding our elected employees start doing their jobs and keep Trump and his cronies in check, and/or send him and his carny packing!
44
@Boregard
The sooner we start demanding our elected employees start doing their jobs and keep Trump and cronie in check.
Write, call, tweet, email ...contact your elected officials every week to demand they do their job.
Most important contact Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy, even if you are not in their state or district.
8
What are the lies? What did Manafort say? If Mueller is certain the statements are lies, what does he need Manafort for? Did Manafort change his testimony? If he “Doesn’t remember,” is that a lie? If he got some dates mixed up, is that a lie? Times, people, places? According to most reports Mueller will publish his findings by next week. Then we can find out the facts, instead of guessing. If the report doesn’t come, who knows, Manafort might be telling the truth!
@Walter
I suspect Mueller's team is busy matching up Trumps's test question answers to Manafort's lies on the same topics.
15
@Walter: Your disbelief is not evidence of Manafort's innocence. Mueller has access to physical evidence (e.g., emails) and testimony of other witnesses; you don't. More to the point, Manafort did not have access to all the evidence that Mueller has, and so he might have thought he could get away with some lies.
Even more telling, Mueller has requested an immediate sentencing with the judge presiding over the Manafort case (Amy Berman Jackson). Judge Jackson has to agree that Manafort lied and thus violated the cooperation deal, in order for sentencing to go forward. Mueller would have to be quite a gambler himself, if he didn't strongly believe that the judge would agree with him.
But it's not up to you whether Manafort is telling the truth. Judge Jackson will decide and her decision should come out sooner than any report.
8
Clearly, he's got a pardon lined up with you know who.
3
Ugh, maybe he was thinking, "Pardon me?'
1
What was Manafort thinking?. Manafort’s second trail (on Ukrainian issues) with scheduled just before the midterms— an electoral disaster for Trump. But Trump couldn’t pardon Manafort before the election – a worse electoral disaster. The best possibility for Trump was that Manafort plead guilty—and then lie and delay (giving Mueller nothing). Trump could then after the election pardon Manafort— without paying an electoral price. And that is exactly what is happening It is true that it would have been difficult for Trump to communicate this plan to Manafort expressly. But there were many signals that Trump sent publicly. It is also true that Manafort takes a risk because he has no guarantee from Trump of pardon here. But it’s is his best shot. And state trails of Manfort are not guaranteed and likely won’t happen anytime soon. Manafort’s move is not only rational – it is wise for him. Unfortunately, it looks like Mueller (and the US justice system ) was played here. I wish I were wrong.
2
If this goes down as I sincerely hope, Mr. Mueller should be declared a national hero who saved our country.
53
Brevity is not something I do at all well, ... but - entertaining though the column was - it boils down to Mr. M. being beyond a bad gambler. Pick between "he lost his mind at some point" or "he's dumber than dirt."
I was traveling this summer when the first couple of days of the trial briefly pushed the Donald below the fold. True, the Judge blew a very late whistle, saying, "It's not a crime to be wealthy and tasteless about it" - was there a jacket made from ostriches? - but any competent defense attorney would have seen the prosecution's cards - trials are NOT poker-like - and moved to plea-bargaining, instead of trying the case.
1
Manafort is just doing what he has done for years and years. He probably just couldn't sustain truthfulness very long, it felt strange.
3
In a July 2018 article in the New York Times, Sharon LaFraniere and Emily Baumgaertner reported, "Prosecutors have said they do not intend to delve into questions about collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign in this case." Rather, the focus of the trial was on "how Mr. Manafort handled the money he earned working as a consultant in Ukraine." Hence nothing to do with the alleged involvement of the Russian government in the 2016 election--the original premise of this investigation. But it is being presented like that. That is the implication.
In a NPR story in September 2018 by Miles Parks, it was reported that "about 1 out of every 3 American adults thinks a foreign country is likely to change vote tallies and results in the upcoming midterm elections."
Based on that statistic, 100 million Americans arguably think Putin was responsible for literally changing the votes of millions of Americans to fundamentally change the results of the 2016 presidential election in Donald Trump's favor. If this were true--and that is a big IF--then we have a severely incompetent intelligence apparatus. The reason for such groundless cynicism is stories like this, trying to make the implication that the election of 2016 was illegitimate because the Russian government changed votes. Bill Maher is famous for calling Americans stupid. And I must agree that there are a lot of stupid ones who don't actually take the time to investigate this stuff.
@Xyce
Well, It just so happens that 1 out of 3 Americans are Trump Nationalists. So your point is?
6
@mattjr
Was that supposed to be wit? There is nothing wrong with nationalism. But I digress.
Anyway, the point I am making is that 1 out of 3 Americans believe in something that is not based on any evidence. That is an indication that this misdirection by supposed unbiased journalistic outlets is actually affecting the way Americans think.
I do believe that Russia tried to interfere with our elections through manipulation via social media (and I am sure they have been doing this since the advent of social media), but I think it is only in Putin's wildest dreams to be able to manipulate 100 million Americans to believe something not based on reality. This misdirection is an attack on our electoral process, an institution that is the cornerstone of our democracy, our republic.
Yes I think that 1 out of 3 Americans are right in thinking that at least one vote was influenced/changed by Russia interference. Would they be interfering if it didn’t?
2
Look in the words of that great American philosopher Judge Judy, "If you tell the truth you don't have to have a good memory." Well Manafort doesn't tell the truth, and he's almost Seventy, so no good memory either.
4