Who is Kristof to say Xi is impetuous. This against a blithering idiot in our White House. The correct spelling of CHINA is PLANNING. They decide what they they're going to do in the course of five, ten or twenty years. Then they plan it out. (A small but telling example was their decision to rise to the top of the international chess scene two decades ago. They are not there, men and women.) We did it once and wound up planting a man on the moon. Since then we've allowed children to govern us thanks to corporate America in charge of who will be our presidents. It's got us such enervating results as
the Iraq war, the 'forever war' in Afghanistan, a criminal housing bubble, out of control banks, absurd and crippling student debt, and Russian oligarchs engineering our national elections not to mention income inequality of a dimension that has brought down empires. If Xi and his planners are impetuous, I'll have two servings please.
3
regarding fentanyl, trump raised the defense budget by 700 billion. he is bashing brown immigrants and putting their babies in cages. He sent 15,000 troops to the border to block out 1000 unarmed men, women and kids.
Why is that trump and the GOP have an open border to fentanyl but not brown immigrants. He and the GOP do not have a zero tolerance program toward fentanyl from china, and fentanyl is a bigger threat. The rare mexican illegal immigrant kills 1 american. Fentanyl kills millions but there are no votes for trump in demonizing fentanyl.
2
The best response to china would be to fill the heads of the 45 percent of americans supporting trump with the education, knowledge and skills needed to compete in a global economy. Chinese graduates are going to US colleges for masters and phds, and filling the jobs the 45 percent dont care to qualify for. Instead their brain cells are filled with the propaganda that trump and fox news together feed them, and with video games and opioids. Before ‘70 the US made much of what is imported from china now. Who created the china trade mess ? Republicans. Who opened the US to china trade ? Nixon a Republican. Who cut research and education funding and college scholarships ? Republicans. Who promoted an unregulated free market and drained good jobs from the towns, that went to china ?The gop. Who feeds greedy, purely for profit US corporations with one tax cut after another that benefits few americans ? Republicans.trump, reagan and two bushes. Who is now wrecking profitability at US companies and increasing costs for US consumers and trying to get votes with ineffective measures such ad tariffs ? Trump and republicans. But it is more likely that with the latino population growing the remaining whites will join the gop. Blaming brown skinned people is easy. Competing with china is hard
1
One does not climb to the top of the Chinese Communist Party by being “impetuous.” Xi is many things, but he is not impetuous. What leader of China could have acquiesced to Trump’s demands, which were vague and incoherent to begin with, and still maintained power? Trump was picking a fight from which it was impossible for the other side to back down. If Trump will score a “win,” it’ll be like his meeting with Kim Jong Un: all show, no substance.
But even so, Xi probably prefers this kind of fight than the slow economic encirclement that TPP was intended to be, to create an economic order in the Pacific Rim that left China out. But Americans are, like Trump, “impetuous.” We prefer instant gratification even when it might turn out to be no gratification at all in the long term.
1
The confrontation between China and the US has been building over the last 20 years. It should have been done incrementally starting with the Bush administration (W), when there was sufficient evidence that the Chinese were stealing US secrets, especially defense secrets such as inertial guidance of rockets, etc (Loral had basically given some of this to the Chinese to enable them to launch satellites successfully for cheap during the Clinton administration.) But we were wasting our time in a Boomers-having-Low-T rageathon over "Radical Islamic Terrorism", solving no problems real or imaginary and making newer and worse problems all over the world, including threats to democracy itself in Europe and now the US.
China needs to realize America is what built their modern incarnation. Sure they are now very competitive, but it is time to give thanks and not act arrogant. This is not a nationalistic sentiment on my part, but a very rational one.
The US has advantages, in spite of Mr. Trump and McConnell, we are a very strong, cohesive society which can take hits like 9/11 and not fall apart. China is put together with force like Yugoslavia or Iraq, similar not identical. Lose that central authoritarian entity, they can collapse into chaos for a decade or so. The Cultural Revolution ended only 42 years ago. Mr. Xi needs to be working on moving China to more democracy, more people power. The citizens are as ready as ever, but the leadership is faltering.
Kristof's list of actions that China can take against the U.S. introduces a new dimension to Trump's naïveté.
A key problem to resolving all of this is that Trump has proven himself an unreliable negotiation partner. He's not only generally incompetent (real estate salesman playing apprentice president), his mercurial reactionism makes any serious negotiator want to freeze relations until a mature person is in the presidency.
But the U.S. can't afford to wait. We need to have the Cabinet invoke the 25th Amendment and get the pubescent-minded bully out to a golf course permanently.
China bullied Japan by restricting exports of rare metals a few years ago and succeeded. They also took away Japan's bullet train technology at a low cost. They can't do it easily to the US anymore without risking their hundreds of billions in exports to the US, and a massive chinese stock market crash and recession. If they stop sending students to the US they will suffer.China is increasingly targeting the high end areas of US business- technology, health care, and defense, and want to share and take away newly developed technologies from US companies well into the future.This will not be possible if its citizens are not allowed to work here. There is no doubt that the chinese have taken away millions of US manufacturing and tech jobs. Trump could prevent US companies from hiring Chinese grads in these areas. He could give US companies big incentives to get the same supplies and imports from elsewhere. He could kick up trouble in Sikiang and Tibet. China relies heavily on US allies for oil, coal and other imports. Trump could exert pressure on the allies. In the end, the US is a huge market. The chinese can't compensate for lost export opportunities in America. They export a lot more to the US than they import.
Tariffs have never worked in the past and won't work now. The US and China are in a mutually destructive trade relationship. Trump is wagering China will surrender when it gets too painful.But US companies and consumers will unseat trump rather than tolerate pain.
Demographics has always ultimately been destiny.
China, a country that Mr. Kristof has glorified in the past, is a ruthless export machine that has exploited america's free market to the hilt. Nixon celebrated his 1971 trip to china, and claimed a big foreign policy victory. It looks like the tombstone of america's superpower status now. China has a massive trade surplus, accomplished by shutting off it's market, and feeding the american consumers addiction to cheap imports, placed on credit cards. The chinese political and social system is similar to america's, with communists in power replacing the white privileged. America's privileged whites segregate themselves from the rest of america, in high places and ivy league universities, buying off whatever they want.The privileged in China's communist party do the same with their masses, amassing great wealth and power with no accountability(like the trumps lately), closing themselves off in gated communities, and sending their kids to western countries for studies. The kids get western visas, and settle in the top 1 percent in wealth and jobs, in western societies. A few return to china, taking with them the knowledge gained in the west. China bullies it's neighbors. America bullies venezuela and cuba. The ultrarich chinese splurge on travel and western luxury goods. The chinese commoner is thrifty. Americans are culturally consumerist,though some are also value conscious. Chinese are ruthlessly competitive, as the harvard law suit indicates, with no concern for fairness.
The US China trade war is a phony war. China gave Ivanka Trump a free pass. Trump and america's oligarchs have made or will make a deal with China's. They will together mint billions and average americans like you and I will pay the bills. Still worse, millions more in america will loose their jobs to china.
I believe its very hard to compare the two countries. Trump has 2 or 6 years left while Xi is there for life. Xi can do whatever he wants while trump has constraints. I don't believe either man cares about the people however trump is forced to by our constitution. Nether man will back down so it will be interesting as there ego plays havoc with the world economy.
1
Most importantly, we as a nation must begin to discuss and sketch out what America's long term response should be to China's growing economic power and economic independence. I believe part of that strategy must include protecting America's heavy industry, intellectual property and national security, but China and America must also come to a tacit mutual strategy of mutual economic coexistence. The conversation on coexistence has not even begun yet.
First, "work with allies". Does the US under Trump still have any allies, even counting the likes of Russia, the Philippines, Hungary, Poland?
Second, why so many pundits get China wrong for so long and on so many things? Shall we count them: a growing middle class will demand more freedom and the government will liberalize; China joining the world trade organization will force it to be "more responsible"; the internet, if nothing else, is going to force an opening up of the society, after all they can't stop internet traffic without harming their own economic interest;....
"Beijing doesn’t seem to realize that Trump’s challenge to China arises from core beliefs and reflects a broad disillusionment with China in the United States." This is not true, Chinese intellectuals have in many occasions expressed beijing's realization of the American shift to contain China. Again and again, I see them talking the American national security white paper confirming China as the biggest threat to America in the 21st century. The Chinese, as far as I can tell, are cooperative to american's claim on IP theft, and they are willing to implement measures in a sensible way and timeframe. What the Chinese cannot accept is American gov denying them the possibility of going up the value chain and live a better life. Made in China 2025 is of core national interest to China and as long as the US government try to negotiate on that, this trade situation will not stop.
2
Oh well. This is a nice complement to "waiting for china" in this newspaper. Xi may be the incarnation of all that has gone wrong with authoritarianism with Chinese characteristics, and his turn to the even darker side is ominous. If the old solution doesn't work, double down on it. Our own president though does the same thing, doubles down on solutions that were past their sell by date in 1985. Perhaps both of our countries are going through a generally unacknowledged transition to something unknowable.
Mr. Kristof thank you for this report. My feelings are: the future of the World, the U.S. and China depend on a responsible recognition that we have common challenges in adapting to a new energy future that must evolve away from fossil fuel energy to alternative non-fossil energy sources.
China joins the U.S. in developing a consumer economy that seems to have preferences similar to the U.S. and the rest of the World. China and the U.S. are and will have a difficult time in making the transition and my counsel to Mr Trump and Mr. Xi is they should join in an effort to persuade the other members of the international community that we should give priority to developing solar energy, particularly the development of a system of space solar satellites to collect and convert the energy to a form that can be beamed to Earth. Tested by Dr. John Makins of NASA.
My colleague Dr. James Powell has proposed launching these solar parasols with a Maglev launch system that can launch payload to orbit for less than 1% of the cost of conventional rockets. This system can beam very cheap electricity to receiving antennae fields for distribution on the Earth's grid.
With very cheap electricity we can extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, desalinate ocean water for agriculture, power our transport system and fill with electricity other industry and home needs.
This is preferable to getting bogged down in wars and competition for the dwindling supply of oil, natural gas and coal
2
As long as the world is divided into ideological, economic, and geo-political camps, conflict is inevitable. Both men in the photo heading this article are interested not in what would benefit the human race as a whole, but what would advance their so-called "national interests." But if we compare the human race to the human body, and the individuals that make up humanity to the cells of that organism, what would we say about cells seeking their own advantage at the expense of others? Isn't that what cancer is? If all countries pursue a similar approach, what possible end could that lead to except mutual destruction? Clearly, we must all learn to cooperate and live together as part of a unified global system that meets the needs of all its inhabitants - just as the cells in an organism cooperate without ego or ambition. As was said more than 200 years ago: "United we stand, divided we fall." This is a lesson we must assimilate on a planet-wide scale - and quickly.
4
I don't think 'Naïveté' is the right word. Trump is a product of NYC real estate and Xi the Cultural Revolution. Using others for one's own success is absolute, there is no families or friends, just the made-men and associates. Everyone is dispensable and every moral corruptible.
1
You can’t have a deal until the parties understand what the consequences of no deal would be for each side. We’re not there yet. It will take a few years to get there is my prediction.
4
I have worked in high tech since the 1980s and I think the situation is substantially worse than Mr Kristoff does. When Japan was a mercantilist power in the 1980s (and before) they succeeded in displacing American companies in steel, cars, shipbuilding, tires - all the industrial technologies of the first half of the 20th century. However, they failed in the 80s when they went after Silicon Valley, but we were scared to death: the 5th Generation Project, AI, Japanese semiconductors - all these loomed in our rear mirror. Why they failed is still unclear but clearly the financial implosion of Japan's banks in the late 80s was critical.
China, on the other hand, shows little sign of fading, at least now. And China has already used classic mercantilist tactics to destroy at least one vital American tech industry, namely photovoltaics. Venture capital flowed into PV startups from the mid 2000s in the billions, and American entrepreneurs responded. Inventions pushed the state of the art, yields went up, and fabs were built from Massachusetts to California - remember the ill-fated Solara? China responded with a tidal wave of state capital, non-tariff barriers, free land, etc to Chinese companies which used predatory pricing and intellectual property theft to put not just some but ALL the American PV companies out of business; some of the fabs were bought by Chinese firms. We simply can not allow China 2025 to do this to the rest of our country's tech sectors.
7
@dubbmann The USA used to be the world's largest contiguous market. All sorts of innovations become possible with a large market, crushing the efforts of those in a smaller market. China now has a larger market than the USA, so almost all the innovations will occur there. Wishing it wasn't so isn't going to help.
@dubbmann First, thanks for using a specific example, which is very helpful for anyone trying to understand this complex issue. But can you be more specific about how China engaged in intellectual property theft? I'm not clear on this, and you mention that fabs were built all over the country, and China bought failing companies, which seems part of the general day-to-day activities of a capitalist economy. I tend to see a failure of the US to respond to these issues 20 years ago, when we had the leverage, but too many Americans were making too much money in China.
The only thing I don't see mentioned is the convenient but temporary alliance between China and Russia.
Yes, I know it's been going on for decades, even before the Korea War.
They need this alliance to bring us, the US, down to our knees.
But as soon as the Chinese see us breaking down, the Chinese will also turn on Russia.
Europe and us, along with Australia and South America, better unite and stay united because that's the only way we will remain alive.
5
I'm not so sure that we're "going it alone" vis a vis China. Now that we've pulled back a good bit from antagonizing our allies, they may indeed decide to join us. If that happened (and maybe a show of support from the US chamber of Commerce) China would quickly change its stripes, IMO.
Obama was naive when it came to trade. Despite his misplaced arrogance in most every other area, he did little to nothing to improve our country’s stance on trade. At least Trump is attempting to improve our financial situation on trade. And he’s accomplished just that in more situations than not despite the NYT’s slanted reporting on the subject. You chose to highlight only the negative aspects of everything Trump. Pathetic.
3
@TheRealJR60
Please enlighten us. Be as specific as you are able. Feel free to use statistics, comparative analysis, etc. Methinks your enthusiasm for Trump’s trade “policies” has more to do with his nationalistic rhetoric than it does actual reality. Nevertheless, I remain open to having my own possibly incorrect opinion disabused by people more informed than me on the matter. But despite reading quite a bit on the trade, I’ve found little to convince me that Trump has a clue on the matter. Trump does, however, know how to speak to his audience. Methinks Trump’s words make some people feel good, makes them feel like they are “winning.”
7
@TheRealJR60 Why is it that the Trump cultists bring up Obama every time Trump is criticized? Perhaps it is to deflect from the obvious fact that Obama is exceptionally intelligent and humane, while Trump is borderline average intelligence, intellectually lazy and vicious.
China is not naive. Now our president. that is another matter.
5
Meanwhile, our oceans are dying.
7
Comparing Trump to Xi Jinping
Is a very remarkable thing
Trump’s IQ, I dare say
Is far down, way way way
While Xi’s would make the bell ring.
6
The major difference is Xi plays the long game, Trump's attention span is longer then the Tsetse fly, but marginally.
8
Since the late 1980’s American and European businesses knew that coming to China means using the best available technology to compete here, and cooperating with China’s goals for economic development. The Chinese government has been very clear about this, and there continues to be a flood of foreign capital into the country. The result of this seems, all of a sudden, to be a big surprise. And it’s become convenient to blame China for economic and political problems in the United States, instead of the politicians, financiers, factory owners and ex-trade negotiators who have enriched themselves in China’s development, often at the expense of their own citizens. The main problem with this type of article is that it views China as an appendage of the United States or Europe, instead of viewing China’s on its own terms or its own problems – such as managing a country the same geographic size as the United States with five times as many people, which may demand different forms of government and economics to keep stable and orderly, which is the most important aspect of any issue with China, but not mentioned in the article. I am not a political sympathizer in China or anywhere, just a turnaround manager, so I try to see problems in their entirety before making decisions on how to proceed. I see a little more of that in China at the moment than in the USA.
7
". . Trump's challenge to China arises from core beliefs. . " No, they don't; Trump doesn't have any core beliefs, other than making money for himself. The challenge arises from envy and ignorance. Envy in that Xi is a greater autocrat in a bigger country and ignorance in that he thinks trade is a zero sum game, which he is losing. Trump also doesn't get that he can't win a trade war with China. There are many reasons for this, but chief among them is that China can withstand pain a lot longer than we can.
5
I suggest that Trump and Xi are most alike in that they are equally stupid about the costs and benefits of international trade. They both believe that the benefits of international trade are provided by exports and the costs are caused by imports. Exports result is more jobs and more money, whereas imports result in fewer jobs and less money and so in their view the nation that is winning the trade competition (war?) is the nation that is running a trade surplus. It ends up with all the jobs and all the money. And the loser is the nation that is running the trade deficit. It has a harder time putting its people to work and has less money. And the economists tend to support their view by telling them that GDP is a good measure of how well an economy is doing and that exports increase GDP and imports reduce it. But they have it backwards. It is the imports that provide the benefits from international trade and exports that represent the costs. As David Ricardo told us 200 years ago, and Milton Freidman told us more recently, nations benefit from international trade because it allows their people to buy and consume more stuff and a greater variety of stuff than if they relied on their own resources. Nations that are running surpluses are playing Santa Claus to the rest of the world. Nations that are running deficits are getting boatloads of stuff for nothing, for piles of their own currency that cost them almost nothing to produce and living better for it.
2
Thank goodness Nick Kristof is here to tell Xi and Trump what to do. After all, he's managed a mortgage, a family, frequent travel arrangements and even a column for the Times, so he sure knows better than Xi and Trump how to mage a few trillion dollars in trade.
1
At least we in America have a "check" on our leader, right? Or we could simply vote him out, umm ... right? Maybe not. We are too similar in our power structure with the Nationalistic Republican Party led by trump resembling the autocratic rubber stamp National Chinese Congress led by Xi. Even we have millions in detention - prison - and thousands of refugees locked up in cages awaiting trump's final solution.
With the Group of 19 - plus trump - meeting in two weeks, and Mueller coming out with "something" around that time, I'm not as sanguine about any meeting between an angry, unhinged and vindictive trump and Xi who will perceive a weakened thug and exploit it against our nation.
Trump will simply use the event to lash out at everyone, and how the take advantage of and cheat America without justification - indeed without explaining how America became the richest country with the lowest employment while so many around the world are supposedly cheating us.
Now if only American consumers can skip one Christmas holiday - at least the consumerism part - China will be incalculably hurt. But they know there is no chance Americans won't riot for that plastic trinket they don't need made in China in that busted Door Buster deal.
As for me, my gifts will be donating to Yemeni humanitarian causes in the name of the giftee. Last years was to the victims of Maria in PR.
2
America completely lacks direction. Half of the white population, racist as ever in western imperialist and colonial history, and ruled by old, white, fascist oligarchs in the republican party, is desperately clinging on to wealth and power and obsessed with suppressing blacks and brown skinned immigrants in an all consuming exercise-it is all that unites them as demographic changes are chipping away. It is going to collapse eventually-like South Africa's apartheid. Immigrants and minorities despise them. It is a country in sharp decline. Economic inequality is worse than ever, and the ruling oligarchs are cornering an ever greater portion of the nation's wealth, the debt has risen to 21 trillion, there is no medical coverage for millions and many millions more almost lost theirs. The destruction of government and leadership that has gone on since 2016 with nothing to replace it is the dumbest in western history going back to rome and greece.
4
A bull in a china shop is a destroyer of benign intent. trump is a destroyer of the most malicious intent. The beneficiaries of destruction of world-wide faith in the US are Putin and the oligarchs who hold trump's debt.
4
As Americans, if we don't want to engage in our own dangerous naivete, we should ensure that our kids are learning Chinese. Whether we choose to admit it or not, the futures of the United States and China are inextricably entwined.
4
I will believe that China has become a great country when caravans of people want to immigrate there.
3
What this proves, is that neither one is really a leader in their ability to be honest, sincere, open, as both want to pull the strings in their position of power, but neither in a way that leads to the most open type of Democracy for either country.
3
Dinny McMahon's China's Great Wall of Debt is an important read. Although it has neen predicted before, the Chinese economy is backed into a corner of enormous debt and staggering waste with no obvious route out. Their "greying" problem is catastrophic. If it falls, the world economy will also tank badly (after all close to one out of five people in the world live there with India close behind). The United States and China are hugely intertwined and dependent on each other, but instead of looking for a way to work together, Trump and Xi are ignorant and pig-headed enough to be engaging in a high stakes game of chicken. This is not likely to end well.
2
China gains their IP the old fashioned way, they steal it.
We're such dupes allowing such open access to our intellectual property. They are laughing behind our backs, always.
Also, allowing China's ruling, money class to purchase homes here (and US passports/citizenship) is a dubious venture.
We should be limiting Chinese nationals into the US.
5
Chinese citizens are ore likely to withstand hardships than the usa which has been known to believe bad things happen to other countries.
how many times has the usa pressured others countries because the united states of America has a rather large drug problem.
finally, Chinese are just as likely to go to school or settle in Canada. a large percentage of Canadians are Chinese ethnically including something like 10-11% of Toronto's population.
3
The chinese can deal with a lot of pain. They survived japanese occupation and mao’s mass prison camps
3
@observer Yes, but can they survive without the middle-class lifestyle they've now tasted?
A significant part of america is crazy, racist, white supremacist, white nationalist, unruly, lazy, undisciplined and on opiods. No country spends more on education and it’s military. Yet 50 percent of americans dont have a college education and the US will in all probability capitulate in the next conventional war. If china stops supplying parts we wont have enough snd affordable homes, autos, the internet and electronics in america. America has become very dependant on cheap chinese exports and skilled manpower. Trump’s tariffs amount to brain and spinal surgery with a scalpel. They are killing the patient-america, addicted to cheap imports. if russia invades europe or china occupies taiwan. The badly broken nato and asia alliances, and a disintegrating eu- with a failed greece and italy, and an isolationist britain will ensure that.
The 21st century is china’s. Nothing is going to change that. A deeply divided america with trump at the forefront, and his weak, meek and mindless following, is a country in severe decline. The decline was slowly progressing and has accelerated
4
I think Mr. Kristof has missed the bigger issue in the U.S./China relationship. The great recession has revealed the weakness in the U.S. style of governance. Does China want to follow our example in the financialization of our economy? No. Does China want to follow us into a plutocratic directed society? No.
Is ruling by CCP any worse? CCP membership has been upgraded over the past 40 years. Government officials are vetted through demonstrated performance and not by appeal to popular opinion.
However, in the more "free" Jiang and Hu era, corruption has become so ingrained into the Chinese society as demonstrated by the almost daily exposé of high level corruption in Chinese society. How to root out corruption and to prevent its rebirth in the future? To me Xi's anti corruption and authoritarian actions can be interpreted as a strong corrective measure. I hope he is successful.
And does China want to follow the example of our democracy (already in trouble) where the differences among the Chinese population is much greater than that of the U.S.? And recently educated Chinese are more susceptible to fake news and scams. No.
We should give China/CCP some credit for foreseeing the corrosive effect of fake news on internet and social media. We are only now debating on how to regulate Facebook and Google - after Trump's election..
2
What stands out in this piece is the utter unwillingness of both the federal government and the American people to react to this awakening giant called China. We have given away 8 million jobs to China, we read. Most of our manufacturing sector, particularly of low tech manufacturing, has simply left for foreign shores, leaving millions of Americans wondering what hit them!
We allow giant corporations to open shop in China while leaving their former American employees high and dry, flipping hamburgers. Any labor savings effected from moving offshore are now handed to investors and senior managers.
And now, with their money—money we have given them in exchange for our living above our means—come Chinese investors, buying Americans assets: whole companies, real estate, agriculture, on and on and on.
Here we go again! Japan in the 80's. China now. The difference is that China has much, much more ambition to run the entire global show. Especially politically.
5
Well said, Mr. Kristof!
China's turn over the past eight to ten years has become increasingly disturbing. It gives me some kind of relief to see this succinctly put to pen outside of the MAGA forum.
1
Friendship can be between two persons, two cats, two dogs, even between a cat and a dog, or between two nations. It does not seem to me that China is interested in a two sided friendship.
Let me substitute Xi for China and Trump for America.
Xi is an autocrat and presides over an undemocratic country. There is the belief among Chinese, even among those who reside in America, that China is too big to be governed by democratic methods. That cannot be true because India next door, a country as big and more diverse, governs itself by democratic means.
Conversely, there are small countries, for example most of the middle eastern countries and many in Africa, none of which are as big as India or China, are undemocratic.
Democracy is a state of mind that blossoms if allowed to. Xi is not allowing that. He has manipulated the system to make himself President for life. He can do what he pleases.
Trump is a mirror image of Xi. If given a chance, he would govern like Xi does. Fortunately, our institutions are not so weak as to allow him to be a Xi. But Trump is trying, trying very hard. Whatever damage he can do is limited to one or two terms. We can sigh in relief when he leaves.
Whatever his shortcomings, Trump is right in standing up for his country. There is a tit for every tat. Some equilibrium will be achieved at some point.
The points you make are noteworthy. Most western countries agree that some realignment of policy towards China is needed. Unfortunately, Trump's thoughtless belligerence and his counterproductive alienation of our western allies make a prudent and effective approach much more difficult for the US.
History teaches that it is easy to start a war, but difficult wage it and even more difficult to end it with a convincing win. Trump is able to lash out and start a (trade) war, but he does not have the mental capacity for much more. Others have to repair what he breaks. (His many bankruptcies in business are a case in point.) Trump's ignorance combined with his belligerence make him so dangerous to American prosperity and to world peace. Hopefully his worst instincts can be kept under control until he can be voted out of office.
2
China is unlikely to be dictated to or pressured. This is the middle kingdom, whose rightful place was undermined by colonialism. There will be continued confrontations, and a real likelihood of war at some point. We are not as alarmed as we should be, nor as focused.
The real question is, why are we still over-committed to, and distracted by, the Middle East? Why are the discredited neocons allowed back on TV as "experts"?
5
Xi Jinping strikes me as somewhat more intelligent than Donald Trump. If they were playing chess I would expect to Xi to win.
China has a plan for the future. In includes becoming a major world power. Its one belt-one road program imagines high speed rail from Beijing to Paris with Chinese trade stretching across Eurasia.
The US has no real vision for the future, except for the liberal idea of a rainbow coalition. But this coalition demonizes the white patriarchs thereby undercutting the very culture which foreigners admire. Thomas Jefferson would be publicly shamed as a sexual predator if he was living today.
The NY Times is so besotted with tales of sexual predation that it has no time to discuss important issues of the day. Thus it never discusses the population growth which threatens a humanitarian crisis in Africa as population doubles by 2050. It never discusses the complicity in human rights abuse that stems from regarding birth control as a sin and abortion as murder.
The deaths of millions are ignored in favor of salacious stories of the leers of Hollywood producers are women made up to elicit precisely that response.
America could of course go back to its roots. It could extol the virtues of free trade as it did in the past. We could welcome China to the community of nations. We could adopt a rational immigration policy to answer the concerns of the Trump faithful.
But extremism seems likely to win out, as the sun sets on democracy.
2
@Jake Wagner The US did not extol the virtues of free trade until it became the dominant economic power. Quite the contrary.
1
What seems to stick in the craw of many Americans is possibility that the Chinese are more effective and more ruthless in their exercise of a rapacious brand of capitalism.
It's a stark reminder that democracy and capitalism are not two birds of a feather.
I suppose Trump only dreams about having the control over his population that Xi has over his.
2
Re: "The best response would have been to work with allies to pressure China simultaneously from all sides."
Good luck with that. The Business interests in charge of western governments (and thus trade policy) will give up commodities sales to China? Or sacrifice profits on cheap goods *from* China? Pipe dream.
TPP was going to make China change it's trade practices? No. China is holding more cards all the time, by becoming ever more the industrial powerhouse and technology leader. They won't be stupid like the US, to give away technology, and ship *their* industries to foreign nations for temporary boosts in profit via cheap wages.
Sad. We will not outcompete nations which have long term, well thought out, national strategy - now that we have destroyed the New Deal.
The New Deal, high demand Keynesian policies, infrastructure spending, and an optimum compromise between an *honest* government responsive to it's citizens, and free markets, led to the US broadly shared prosperity from 1932 to 1980.
The bipartisan destruction of those policies since 1980, is why we are now in economic decline.
Germany, China, Japan - all have national industrial strategies for success.
The US became the word leader by winning economically and industrially. But the 1% has hollowed out our manufacturing base, just to cut wages for US workers.
If China becomes the world leader, it will be due to seeds sown long before Trump became President.
3
TPP was written by lobbyists, for their corporate employers - period.
Legislators were not even allowed to leave the locked room containing the TPP, with any notes or documents.
The TPP contained a provision known as ISDS - Investor / State Dispute System - a court of judges - all of whom are appointed by corporations - to decide cases, and award damages to investors, to be paid by governments (federal, state, local). This supersedes sovereignty, as governments can't afford to say, pass anti smoking laws, anti-pollution laws, wage laws, etc - lest they be sued out of existence, with nowhere to appeal.
In any trade agreement, there are winners and losers. Those who do not have a seat at the table, are guaranteed to be losers. And the people of the US - especially workers - did *not* have a seat at the table with TPP. So, you can be sure that they were on the menu.
Again.
The main provisions of TPP were to preserve patent rights to ensure corporate profits - not to balance trade. Decades of trade deficits and declining US wages? TPP would have done *nothing* to turn that around.
Bill Clinton promised that in exchange for most favored nation status, that China would level the playing field. Never happened. Fool me three times?
After decades of allowing US companies to transfer critical technologies to China, greatly accelerating China's economic (and therefore military) development, our government has zero credibility claiming TPP was about containing China.
1
It seems pretty clear that war is coming. There has never been and probably will never be a peaceful transition from one superpower to the next. China wishes to supplant the US and replace the current world order with one of its own making. The US isn't exactly a pacifist. And in many ways, China has been the aggressor.
No one forced China to attempt to take the South China Sea by force through creating artificial islands. No one forced China to steal so much IP over the years. China has chosen to do this of their own accord. Xi is now an emperor in all but name. He will hold power until the day he dies. And he's by far the most aggressive nationalist China has put in office in my lifetime. His machinations seem fairly transparent.
I disagree with Trump on absolutely everything except China. Everything else is a distraction. Russia is problem. North Korea is a problem. Iran is a problem. The whole of the Middle East is a problem. But these are persistent nags which lack any clear remedy. They were all problems at my birth and I suspect they will remain so until my death. We must stop wasting our time and treasure on conflicts with little upside and no obvious path to 'victory' (whatever that might mean in any of the aforementioned cases).
China is a much bigger threat. They should have been boxed in years ago. They should never have been admitted to the WTO. China's rise wasn't inevitable. Neither is war. But both now seem likely.
1
To state that "Trump is right" that "China has not played fair" is akin to giving him credit for saying the Sun rises in the East.
However, when has anyone "played fair" in any power struggle?
2
I wouldn't call Xi Jinping naive - he is more shrewd and sophisticated than Trump. He is playing a game of chicken while putting his own strength to test. It's more likely that he will find a way to swerve without losing face, because China's growth momentum is stalling. Whatever the outcome of their meeting on the sidelines of the G20 in Argentina, Trump will - as always - see himself as winner.
1
It is with a bit of bemusement that I read of the teeth-gnashing over the ascendancy of China into the world's marketplace. Individual greed is the engine behind short-term growth (40 years isn't much time) and some of the biggest crashes. Fear of loosing what little has been gained gives rise to other human character defects such as pride and hate. As American apparatchiks - both corporate and government - scratch and claw to hang onto what they have, the individual and his/her rights seems to get left in the dust; something we only pay lip service to today.
In the Times series that began running yesterday, a significant comment was over the expectation that democracy and freedom would result by letting China join the global economy; not as a precondition. Trickle-down freedom is a myth. Had we demanded this as a precursor, however, much of America's lower paying working-class jobs would have stayed put for a while longer. The American working class will never be able to compete with authoritarian economies on a level playing field unless, of course, our rights are dumbed down to the levels of our new competitors. A full-scale, frontal assault on our individual rights and freedoms is now taking place here at home coupled with an indifference to wanton abuse overseas; perpetrated by some of America's "most favored trading partners." I'll leave it to everyone's imagination to see where this is heading!
2
The stupidity of the Trump approach is that it is focused on suppressing China, rather than on elevating the US. The Chinese do not make that foolish error.
Our chronic trade imbalance is a domestically-caused problem, not one imposed on us. Unlike China, we have no purposeful, far-sighted national trade policy. If we did, we would grant our exporters special $ trade credits that would-be importers must buy before importing. Balanced trade then could develop within a rational framework rather flounder within childish rage.
We squander national wealth trying to police the South China Sea, The Middle East, and The Korean Peninsula -- not to mention Europe -- none of which addresses our our own basic needs. Meanwhie our own infrastructure rots and our students fall farther and farther behind those in China and elsewhere.
We debate whether greenhouse gas is really a problem that needs addressing, while even grammar school children elsewhere understand the irrefutable facts presented by the world's leading scientific bodies.
Is there to be no end to this deliberate national imbecility?
7
Frequently the Times posts a Chinese translation of articles of direct interest to Chinese and those of us who have strong interest in Chinese affairs.
Why no translation of this one?
1
The Americans are right to voice concern but sadly the American Messenger is a Buffoon. A Buffoon ignorant of world affairs and history, a messenger out of his league and who hears what he wants to hear.
1
US kept publicly asking China to agree to stop stealing of US intellectual property. For China to agree to it, it would humiliate itself by agreeing to the fact that it is a theft. I don't think that is going to happen to any country. Anyone with half of brain would understand it. This is not how diplomacy works. So at the end, I don't think US is serious in its negotiation with China.
As long as we think the Chinese shoulder the responsibility for our drug addiction problem, we will have a long way to to go to get our acts together to ameliorate this deadly problem. As far as similarities between Xi and Trump are concerned, the most consequential one is that they both firmly believe the free press is the enemy of the people!
1
Where is the evidence that Trump is authoritarian? Trump has removed much of the draconian regulations imposed by Obama which can only be called authoritarian. Obama was far more authoritarian than Trump.
1
@jaco"..."Trump has removed much of the draconian regulations imposed by Obama"....Are we supposed to laugh? Trump just put a coal lobbiest in charge of the EPA.
3
Xi has not "damaged China's brand". He has merely exposed it, hopefully in time for us to do something about it before China's so far promising attempts to become the single superpower in the world succeed . Xi represents China's ambitions and values more honestly than any other post-Mao leader. China has no intention of compromising with anyone in any substantive way. They believe in their authoritarian system and want to establish it as the dominant political system in the world. Along the way they are intentionally weakening us economically. Anyone who disputes that is wearing rose-colored glasses. They will become the dominant military power in the foreseeable future. Forget trying to "share" power with them. That's not what they want or what they will settle for. We need to do the same things to them that they are doing to us. President Trump is putting forward an agenda that could lead to the U.S. - and hopefully other rational Western countries - to "disconnect" from China before they bankrupt us. It's ironic that this piece appears in the Times the same day as another piece by Phillip Pan entitled "The West was sure the Chinese approach would not work. It just had to wait. It’s still waiting." That author of that piece has a more realistic view of China. If my comment doesn't get printed, I will actually wonder if Chinese censorship has gotten to the New York Times the same way it is eating into free speech elsewhere in the West.
Having the swoop on sneakers, without Nike receiving royalties, infringes a trademark and is a clear violation of "intellectual property" rights. Regrettably, virtually everything with any branding at all is counterfeited: nails, school notebooks, Mickey Mouse's image, ... everything. That's lazy and unfair.
Mr, Kristof might also have mentioned the Chinese population's role in harming endangered species.
At the same time, the idea, that the U.S. can secure its economic future by locking up industrial technology and forcing the rest of the world to remain backward customers for U.S. products, is unworthy of comment -- which is why it remains implicit and unsaid in pieces like Mr. Kristof's.
Also, good luck on getting folks to stop consuming the drugs they want, by ragging on China.
As a practical matter, the issues that I've heard raised on China can and should be handled through the international institutions that past U.S. policy and China's self-interest have gotten China engaged in.
1
Time is on Xi's side. Trump is here today and gone tomorrow. All Xi needs to do is avoid a complete economic meltdown and Trump's administration is nothing but a blessing for China. Trump has done more to isolate and damage the US internationally than even our worst enemies could have imagined. Trump's tenure in office has probably advanced China's bid for geopolitical and economic dominance by 10 years at least. That's only so far.
Xi isn't worried about the US right now. He's laughing his way all the way to the bank.
3
I watch a lot of Asian TV dramas, and you can see the drastic change in Chinese movies and shows just over the past 5-8 years. Even run of the mill rom-coms now have such things as meetings to discuss Xi's thoughts, and it appears that Mao is making a subtle comeback, though much sanitized. Meanwhile due to all the censorship, the quality of shows has dropped precipitously - it is almost impossible to find a Chinese TV show or move worth watching now.
In fact it is so bad for the industry that something like 90% of all movies lose money, and quite often are nothing but investor scams, with fake attendance figures. Just like the ghost cities, the Chinese entertainment industry has become a house of cards.
Hard to believe America would ever be crazy enough to actually go to war with China--not even Trump. That said, in the long run, whatever "economic war" we try to wage with China is surely one in which they ultimately hold the aces. America, and the American people, simply have to face the obvious fact that "the American Century" will not last a century, if you date it from 1945, as you should. Goldman projected in the Times within the past year that by 2050, India will be tied with America for second place among the world's economies, with China far ahead of both, and with India surging ahead of America for the rest of human history. How can a little country like America compete with nations like China and India, both four times our size--in other words much larger, relatively speaking, than America was compared to little Britain, when America came to dominate the world economy in 1945? Sure, China and India still have hundreds of millions of people poorer than virtually any Americans. So what? They also have at least four times the geniuses in math, tech, engineering, etc., America has. And those geniuses work harder, don't they? Finally, we need to recall there ARE no more Chinas and Indias on this planet. Once they take over--and together they are more than four times as big as little America and Europe combined--Asia will dominate the rest of human history even more profoundly than the West has dominated the last five-hundred years. Deal with it.
3
We need to address many issues with China, but having an economic tantrum that is no adequately thought out, propagated by a ignorant moron, is not the way to do it.
2
Xi Jinping did a degree in Chemical Engineering at Tsingua University, and later earned a Doctor of Law degree there. How can you possibly compare him, Nick, with the dufus ignoramus in our White House? You're basically comparing avocados with rotten apples here. And it's quite obvious who the big "rotten apple" is....
5
And we will never forget the great Liu Xiaobo the Nobel Peace winner. He is a symbol of what is happening in China.
1
Relax. China has money. We want that money. It is a mutual symbiotic mutually beneficial relationship that can stand a few bumps every now and them. Neither country is anywhere near wanting to call the other country an enemy. And until one of them (China) greatly exceeds the other, neither will label the other as bankrupt (America).
2
"Trump is right (I can’t believe I just wrote those three words!)"
Trump might be right but he is right like a broken clock--right twice a day. Once again Trump's manifest unfitness is in the stage lights. Trump is simply incapable of solving this, and probably unwilling to try. China is going backwards. Trump is taking America backwards.
2
@Robert
We don't, for instance, say the clock is working!
America thought opening China would lead to democratic society. The politicians were wrong. The biggest mistake in post WWII history.
Trump and Xi are both obnoxious and ignorant, but in different ways. Sure, both provide nationalist grandstanding and an economic policy that ignores looming problems. Both rule strong countries and believe from that position that they can get away internationally with whatever they do - endangering the international order. But the differences shouldn't be ignored.
China is doing well economically and the population feels the country is going the right way. So Xi is free to sit on his hands in that respect and focus on nationalist issues. Xi is on his way on establishing a personal dictatorship - doing away with oversight from the communist party. For that reason he is fueling nationalist sentiment. Power hunger seems his dominant motivation.
In the US on the other hand the popular sentiment is much more negative and many feel the country is in decline. Trump is more of a con man who tries to give everyone the feeling that he is solving the problems while he doesn't have much of clue what is needed. He doesn't care much for power and he can't even resist the temptation to abuse his position for petty self enrichment.
But Trump has a good gut feeling. He is right that Russia is irrelevant and that US foreign policy should focus on China. He is right that China's expansion into the South Chinese Sea cannot be ignored as it is bound to be followed by further expansionism. He is also right that the trade relationship needs some restructuring.
Mr. Kristof,
As a China specialist you understand China very well!
You studied and lived in China. You are not only an old friend "Lao Peng You" of China, but also her son -in -law; Despite that if your trip to China faces hardships, what does this tell to the world?
- She has changed for the worse. She does not respect global values as you said; She even does not respect her own laws. Look at the situation of Uyghurs in their own Autonomous Region? They are being criminalized just for being Uyghurs.
BEING NOT HAN itself is being considered a crime in China.
Dear Mr. Kristof,
I have expected you write a special column dedicated to the misery of innocent Uyghurs, and particularly to those several million jailed Uyghurs in China's shameful internment Camps.
The world thought "concentration camps" was a thing of the past, but it is being built in the very open eyes of the world;
Chinese communist government is very powerful. She can beat every country except America in a war. She can eliminate various ethnic groups living along so -called one belt one road peripheries. Uyghur is a people just to have peaceful and dignified life, and this powerful country did NOT tolerate that.
If the world continue its silence on the calamity befallen on Uyghurs, China will slowly but surely realizes its vicious dream of dominating the world.
I truly hope that you, as a conscience person with compassion, write an opinion piece on Uyghurs and urge CCP respect Uyghur's rights.
Thank you
2
Chinese students would attend Australian universities instead of American? Are you mad? The Australians don’t have one tenth the university places the Chinese would need. The main losers would be the US universities and the Chinese spies that are pretending to be students. That would be a trifecta for Trump. It would hurt Chinese espionage, it would hurt American universities who are among his worst enemies, and it would hurt Chinese Australian relations.
The idea that Chinese patriotism would be a useful tool for Xi to use against American tariffs is equally ridiculous. The whole point of Trump’s policy is to take advantage of the fact that the Chinese benefit more from trade than the US. Refusing to buy Big Macs will simply double-down on that. The fact is that a Trump is right on trade. Total US trade is less than 10% of US GNP. Trade is a much larger percentage of China’s overall economy and its trade with the US is a much larger percentage of its overall trade. In other words, China needs trade more than the US. If the Chinese respond to Trump’s policy by a nationalistic or patriotic response - including boycotting US companies and products - that would hurt China far more than the US. Meanwhile, it would create additional new jobs in America to manufacture the products no longer made in China.
1
Having done business in over 75 countries in the world, TV programming, we naively thought China would be our last and biggest success before we sold our privately held, UK based, company.
In 75 countries we found it easy to avoid corruption in a sector rife with backhanders - just say no.
Once the state owned companies in China had everything they wanted from us during our initial significant success from 1998 to 2002 three things happened. Theft of IP, non-payment of very significant outstanding balances owed us and overt demands for bribes.
We countered with legal action and won the first ever IP lawsuit in China by a foreign company, British, against a Chinese mainland company - a state owned TV station. We thought that would be enough to have the collective 10 plus state owned entities pay us what was contracted. Debts were unilaterally ignored.
We had advice from another foreign owned company that a specialist group based in Taiwan had near 100% success in mainland debt collection. When I discovered that the key tool for collection was death threats we withdrew from the PRC. Our company, 15 years in the making, was bankrupted. Our Chinese managers and employees support disappeared with the last paycheck, the office was stripped bare and the company car was vandalized.
After over 25 visits to China over 5 years I learned that there is no such thing as a fair rule of law in China, only the Party. China is an existentialist threat to world democracy and peace,
3
Sorry Mr. Kristof but it is dangerously naive to label Xi naive. The Chinese leader is not impetuous; he plays the long game and is taking advantage of Trump's naivete in pulling out of the TPP, undermining the rules-based WTO and antagonizing our traditional allies in Europe and Asia. Xi is making friends with every country Trump unfriends, joins every international treaty Trump unjoins and offers carrots where Trump offers only sticks. China now has a bigger footprint in resource-rich Africa, is rapidly gaining more influence in Western Europe and is now viewed by its neighbors as the real powerhouse of the Asia-Pacific region. Trump, by contrast, is walling us off from the rest of the world with petty nationalism, isolationist trade policies and aggressive disdain for globalization.
4
Remember the Thucydides trap. The cause of the Peloponessian War was Sparta's fear of rising Athenian power. The same could happen here. More recently, the rivalry between Germany and Great Britain led to WWI, greatly helped by incompetent nationalistic leadership. XI and Trump are more of the same.
The opening salvo, "Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are a bit alike, and that presents a danger to the global order", is symbolic of the confusion that precipitated the statement. For leaders like Trump , Xi, now many others, are leading because of the global disorder that Progressive mythology precipitated. They are not the cause nor byproducts of the confusion. The people of the world have collectively spoken -- largely in democratic voice; they are reason contrasted with the confusion.
Xi is playing go while Trump is playing checkers. Xi will outlast Trump even if he is reelected in 2020. If the US economy craters by 2020 then he will be blamed and become a republican Jimmy Carter i.e. single term president. Trump has yet to show the political or practical skills to manage a nation during a crisis. Crisis management is the ultimate test of a leader. Trump's track record during a crisis in the private sector is to stiff his clients while leaving them to hold the bag.
2
China can’t be contained with US sanctions. It has caught up with the US in key portions of technology that will be the future: AI, molecular biology and internet commerce. When it comes to infrastructure, research and development, China has surpassed the US.
In the interest of humanity and civilization all nations have to collaborate in an extent that has no historical precedent. China and Europe have understood this imperative. The US under the leadership of Donald J Trump has resorted to a dystopian dream of a future based on steal, coal and white supremacy.
Good luck with that.
1
Kris you didn't mention China's superstitions about animal parts having mystical powers and the ivory usage indusryy. IMHO: all patent rights should be suspended which would bring down costs exponentially, enhance utilitarian usage of technological advanced and not suppress creative minds from making future advances. it might even enhance the distribution of wealth.
1
Back in the late 1970's and early 1980's when manufacturing was being shifted overseas, some economists were warning that, "free markets do not necessarily mean free people".
Most Americans ignored that advise and were more interested in buying their products at a reduced price. That mattered more than anything else.
Well, the fact that 90% of Americans don't give a dame about the ideals that this country once stood for, they only care about how much they pay for their consumer goods has come home to roost.
The USA needs to find its ideals. We need to manufacture and consume everything in this country with nothing from outside of it.
Going forward we should only have anything to do with other countries if they follow and abide by a strict interpretation of common laws on the environment, labor rights, free speech and press rights, and independent courts.
Basically, we should only have anything to do with others that share our ideals and have nothing to do with others that do not.
Today 90% of the world does not share our ideals. We should put our ideals over cheep goods.
We can live on our ideals or we can die under a mountain of cheap priced consumer goods made in a foreign land.
3
Interesting how Kristof's "opinion" appears in the same issue that has a very good article on the rise of China by not following the West's playbook. The article seems to follow much of what Michael Pillsbury has written in the Hundred Year Maraton: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower (which I suggest to those who claim to be "well informed"). I don't put a whole lot of value in Kristof's opinion, because of his left-wing politics. China does not care one iota about the "pain" its policies inflict on its society and the world. China cares only about China. China first!
Since Nixon opened the door to China in the 1970s, China used the US to dispose of the USSR, making it look like the US accomplished it (read Pillsbury for the details). Now China has its eyes on toppling the US. Not through military means, but economically, by practicing the good ol' mercantilism of the 16th-18th centuries. In fact, the so-called theft of IP is largely the US' making as it gave much it away. All part of China's plan.
President Trump is the only US leader in the last 40+ years with the guts to face off against China. Yes, there will pain, but freedom, especially economic freedom, must come with sacrifice. Americans, a pampered lot, can not deal with sacrifice. In the words of AC/DC they like "livin' easy, livin' free." The naivete is not with Trump and Xi, but with the American people. I support the President. I support Trump. MAGA! Thank you.
3
Donald Trump is by far not a leader with guts who dares to face of China. He has one coherent strategy for the future in any political issue at stake. He has squandered personal family fortune over and over again and he is about to do the same to the US, this time he will squander the future of a nation
"The basic problem is, who is growth for?" said Mr. Wu. (from the China Rules article)
Growth,growth,growth. Growing smart is the only thing that will sustain the two countries. Still, the arbitrers of entreprenuership declare that hesitation, thoughfulness, & probity must be discarded in favor of overreach & greed, Ayne Rand, if you will, to benefit the whole. Whether trickle down or cascading torrent, individuals or large swaths will suffer.
American exceptionalism, you've made your bed, now sleep in it. We should have listened to the proponents of the Jeffersonian ideal.
1
There are a few things that seem to be missing from this analysis. First, although the article mentions the need to work with our allies, it doesn’t mention the ongoing attempts to do so in the context of the WTO, where we have refused to cooperate. As an indication of lost leverage, it is worth mentioning that both the US and the EU represent 18% of Chinese exports.
Second it is worth stressing the dramatic change in China’s economy. They are now the world’s biggest economy and growing faster than ours. Even though per capita GDP is below Mexico, they now represent a real market to us in a way that was not true even ten years ago. This is a crucial time for negotiations based on common interest. Trade wars undermine that.
Third at this stage the continued stress on Chinese cheating is self-defeating. While we should continue to press China on that point, their growth has not been just because of cheating, and their current threat is far more a matter of competence than cheating. We should above all be looking for ways to enhance our technological and other strengths, e.g. enhancing education and stopping the xenophobia.
Fourth it is worth recognizing that one reason everyone agrees to hate China is that they are a convenient bogeyman for domestic problems. The Chinese did not invent inequality and poverty in this country, but it’s easier to blame China than spend money.
China should be treated like any other adversary—in terms of what we want and how to get it.
China can't dump US bonds -- they have too many. If you owe enough money to someone, it's a bigger problem for them than you.
1
@MKR....And in that regard, what can they do with U.S. dollars except by something American? If they are prohibited from buying land, property, business etc. in the U.S., the only thing they can do with all the U.S. dollars they have accumulated is to buy U.S. exports.
hmmmmm.... where's my salt shaker? hank paulson warns of a systemic failure...... where was his crystal ball leading up to 2008? i can't help but believe that his predictions are somewhat self-serving. let's hear from someone not so tainted.
Mr Kristof, I respect your credential as a Chinese expert. But you are not Chinese and you do not understand the nature of Chinese and Chinese Communist. You are an American and will proudly stand for American value. They expect old friends to stand for their interest: a friend in need is a friend indeed!
Sino-American economic relationship is now so entangled that any disentanglement will harm both parties. McDonald is now 80% Chinese and 20% American owned. A boycott by Chinese will affect their own state enterprise and Chinese employees, hardly any American worker. GM in China is a 50% joint venture. A boycott on GM-China would affect both GM-China owners by extension GM investors, maybe a few GM executives and some parts suppliers. GM employees in general should not be affected. Ivanka brand is no longer popular in US and I doubt whether it would be popular in China no matter what happened.
How have we come to this situation. American elites and business supported businesses in Taiwan and Korea, which turned into liberal democracy, with American value. They are puppies. American elites and business supported Chinese Communists, a tiger cub. Now the cub has grown to a tiger, it shows its nature. There is a Chinese proverb: yang-hu-wei-huan, raise a tiger and it will cause trouble.
Trump came and met this tiger. He has to deal with it.
3
@Eric C
One of the biggest problems that the US has had for decades is it's failure to understand anything about Asia in general and China in particular. It is nothing new, but you would think that after 100+ years the US would get a clue - but they have not. There are thousands of Americans with extensive first hand knowledge of China, but few (if any) administrations have made of or listened to them. Trump is just the worst of the worst, not the first.
1
I agree with many things in this article, but I'm not certain that Xi has shown himself to be 'impetuous'. On the contrary, I believe that most of his actions are deliberate and carefully considered. I have been impressed with Xi's constraint in his responses to Trump's Twitter rants. If Xi was 'impetuous' he might have pulled the trigger and put an end to the Chinese buying of US Treasury Bonds. Also, I suppose that you could make the argument that the two men are 'a bit' alike, but there is one very big difference, Xi is a very intelligent man and Trump is not.
305
@ShenBowen
You are absolutely right.
Not sure if I understand why Nicholas Kristof - whom I usually respect for his opinions - is so off base on his assessment of Xi and the current battle between him and Trump.
20
@Mimi
Agreed. The naïveté is all on us. It started when we were told that the low paying manufacturing jobs could be efficiently and profitably outsourced and that this would create better, high paying jobs here at home. Now, over a decade later, after numerous wars, mounting national debt, ever increasing trade deficits, and a failure to implement a national policy for healthcare or infrastructure improvement, we are discussing naïveté. Anyway, at least we have cheap TVs in every room of the house.
34
@ShenBowen You are right. And Xi has demonstrated his political and administrative skills by climbing up the China Communist career ladder. Trump by inherited wealth and showmanship.
18
A different perspective: regarding IP theft, it is simply impossible for late comers to catch up without levelling the playing field through some form of technology transfer. Once the late comers become creators of IP themselves, they will start to call for protection of IP rights as well. The US also took this path.
42
@Leto
I don't get the point: Stealing IP is acceptable for a developing country as means to improve its own economy? This can't be meant serious. Which rules do apply?
If IP is put into questions under some vague arguments this means the end to innovation for any technology requiring a lot of investment in R&D. This also would ultimately will bit back at the countries who claim to have the right to steal IP as they at one point might get ripped off - and thus deprived from the fruit of their investments - down the road.
8
@LL, Leto is raising a factual point of history. The U.S. stole technology from Europe in the 19th century and used that as a base to become an economic powerhouse. Now that we are the ones with the advanced technology, we've reversed our position.
15
This is not just a tariff war, not even just a trade war.
Kristof is correct to point out that China has many options other than just tariffs. He does not go on to say that both the US and China have motives other than just trade.
The US is separating itself from the Chinese economy as part of a larger response to "China's Rise." It is geo-political, not just trade.
China means to become a fully equal peer competitor, or more, all the way to the new dominant. The US still imagines it can "prevent the emergence of a near-peer competitor" in the words of the Dubya Admin policy documents.
That rivalry can't play out with each in the other's pocket economically. China may for the moment wish to extend that relationship, but only because it stays the hand of the US rival. When the time is ripe, China too will see the ties as limiting rather than helping.
What can we do? The late 19th Century and early 20th saw nations do what we must now do.
Britain dropped its enmity with Russia and France to focus on Germany, and gave way on many issues with the US to do the Great Rapprochement with a US whose politicians still pandered to a deep hostility with Britain.
That later included the Washington Naval Limitation Treaty, which promised no armament of possessions in the Pacific and acknowledged zones of interest defining naval strength "needs."
The US will have to make a deal with China, or suffer fighting it out until a deal emerges from confrontation.
36
@Mark Thomason - My view too,l saves me writing a comment.
Reading a serious book about how democracies die or at least fade and BBC World Radio documentary last night reported a giant move of millions of Chinese who made step 1 / peasant to work in factory and live in dormitories to step 2-live in apartments.
In my narrow view of my country of birth based on annual 1 month visit, a country that cannot even provide decent intercity bus service is a country in decline.
Larry L.
23
@Larry Lundgren -- Larry, I think "in decline" is fair but still just a bit premature. The leadership is not there, simply dysfunctional. However, the potential is still there. It could be saved.
It is analogous to today's NYT story on the crash of the Lion Air flight. The pilots could have saved the plane. It could have flown. They just needed to know what to do -- which wasn't in the manual or training, and they only had a few moments staggering at low altitude to make it up by the seat of their pants.
If the US had inspired leadership emerge for the next election, it would not be in decline, just stagger a bit. If this just goes on, the potential to recover will be gone.
We don't need a Lincoln or an FDR. A Nixon would do. But we need better than Dubya, and we've got worse. For all his merits, Obama did not seize the day when it was his to seize.
I think that is the applicable time frame, Dubya and Obama faced the issue, and now Trump. Before that, China wasn't the China of today.
9
@Mark Thomason... Obama had only 8 years available and did a lot. He was clearly totally at ease in the international arena and was admired and even loved everywhere. The problem with USA? Acknowledge this: He's Black and look at USA today: alt-right white extremists behind Trump and Trump at ease only with them... Even Pence is apparently also going away.
11
Essentially Apple and most of our tech manufacturers are 100% dependent on Asia, and specifically China, for a steady stream of key raw materials, components, and final manufacture. Apple’s wealth rests on this. Cut China and the East Asia tigers off, then see what Apple stock fetches. American tech is as vulnerable to disruption as the New York metro area proved to be this week to a few inches of snow.
73
@William Colgan Sorry Mr Colgan but you are ill informed. Apple assembles products in China using a Taiwanese company. The components come from all over the world, including the U.S.
5
@Democritus... Visiting South China, Zhuhai, the Sun Yat-Sen University campus there I met with 4,000 young students preparing for Science, Engineering and Medical Sciences. And this is just part of the whole University with more than 84,000 students only in Guangdong Province. Apple has plenty to chose about in China.
1
@William Colgan Surely your recognize that not only Apple but most other Fortune 100 conglomerates will also suffer huge setbacks if China were not providing services to them as well. Next time you go to almost any US retail, wholesale, on-line or walk-in business and check the labels on the products...If it says "Made in the USA" take a photo because it's rare. Even if it says "Assembled in the USA" take a photo because that is rare as well. "What's his name" can raise tariffs as high as he can count but the real damage will show up in the US as quickly as it might show up in China and other trading countries.
3
The U.S. since WWII has been the dominant economic power in the world. The Chinese are becoming so in GDP with much faster growth than the U.S. China too is becoming the technological capital of the world. Anti-Russian hysteria is beside the point: we mind as well obsess about Spain replacing American sports by bullfights. The Chinese and the U.S. need to deal rapidly with Climate Change. Otherwise whatever hostility we have towards each other will become academic. As it stands we are likely living at the end of humanities golden age. Let hope all of this is wrong but it doesn not appear likely.
76
@Michael Cohen: Thanks for the reminder that what really is at stake is continuance of this planet as a site for human survival.
12
@Michael Cohen
Yes and no. GDP growth in China is much higher than the US and Europe, but much of it is fake. Ghost cities, high speed rail lines that have to be subsidized at 90% to break even, and a hundred other similar scams. Trump is taking the stupidest approach possible and totally missing the main points, but China also has a host of issues that are seldom mentioned.
10
@Michael Cohen. China did indeed have an enormous increase and high level of GDP for decades. However past performance does not guarantee present results. Their present announced rates of GDP are a propped-up chimera and likely to fall quickly and catastrophically with their severe challenges of debt, waste and a fast-greying populace.
6
Interesting article. I see our strength in the fact that we can change leaders and policies every 4 years (or sooner as in the recent mid terms.) Like every successful business, ideas for change and improvement come from all stakeholders-- all the time. Yes mistakes are made and sometimes successful companies take a few steps back (ie the election of Trump,) but the US will learn and I suspect (hope) that 2020 will see a correction to this political mistake, and elect a President who is smarter and wiser. As a result I see the US developing a more effective strategy to dealing with China after 2020.
...a broad disillusionment with China in the United States..." US elected members have been trolling China for at least a decade prior to Trump, and frequently. The grounds for criticism may be many, but those issues pale in comparison to trade and geopolitical antics. Consider the incoming alternative, two super powers in an endless trade war, with IP piracy, tech theft, cyber espionage, constant friction, and none of it can be much benefit to anyone.
Does anyone seriously believe that China will simply wear criticism and overt confrontation, particularly this very mediocre, hissy fit type of confrontation? Why? They don't have to put up with it. Imagine someone criticizing the US, (as if such a thing was possible) on the same bases, ethnic minorities issues, huge prison population, violence on the streets, etc. Never mind mentioning the actions of political zealots and other halfwits. Would America even tolerate such criticism from foreigners, let alone be seen to agree with it?
America and China would be far better off doing real business behind the scenes and letting the nuts babble on. America and China have been doing quite nicely out of doing business with each other, and now they're actively obstructing doing business.
Mr Kristof, if history over-belabors a point, it's to never underestimate the idiocy and short-sightedness of governments. The US China dichotomy is an idiocy trying to become a global imbecility. Move forwards, not backwards.
1
Well said.
Within the lifetimes of the next two or three generations a global geopolitical reality of unimaginable complexity will be come into play.
Response nation by nation will be influenced by institutional rigidity built into many years of past culture. Some nations will fare better than others. All existing political systems will be put to the test. The Chinese model of “all for one and one for all” is of interest. Its New Age approach based on technical meritocracy, central planning and Confucian traditions may turn out to be more appropriate.
We in the West must, however, understand that if China is successful—and the jury remains out on this—in all probability its approach toward the rest of the world will be Chinese centric; that is it will concentrate only on survival of its one billion three hundred plus million citizens.
One thing is certain; given a deep Chinese resentment toward the ex-colonial West, in all probability China will seek to promote exclusive regional superiority over the West. (There are already signs of this.)
www.InquiryAbraham.com
1
For 90% of recorded history (which goes back 5,000 years) China was the richest, most advanced nation (sometimes tied, as when Greece and Rome were China's equals). Then, in 1422, the Chinese Emperor found Amish values 400 years before the Amish, and said, 'If Confucius didn't have it, we don't need it.' China relied on its wall, but the Manchurians bribed the person guarding one gate and conquered China, then the British stole so much that China was one of the world's poorest countries. Now China is back to being China, and the US wants war? I need a thesaurus to find all the words for insane that apply to the US: lunatic, non compos mentis, unhinged, mad as a hatter, ...
1
@Michael....I have always wondered, if China was so great, why was it that Marco Polo discovered China, rather than China discovered Marco Polo?
Just remember one thing. U.S. became the dominant economic power in the world after WWII when the entire world except U.S., basically unscathed, was just a pile of rubble. Easy run being the only kid on the block. Forget Pearl Harbour. Think about China, pure rubble after Japanese invasion, mass murders and destruction, Europe, France, England, Germany, Russia, pure rubble. Japan, you forgot Hiroshima and Nagasaki two civilian worker cities entirely flattened (not at all military targets) by U.S. atomic bombs. I said: easy run. Look at the world today, hard run for nations to reconstruct and thrive. U.S. doesn’t like.
3
In a battle of wits between Xi and Trump, Xi could be accused of shooting an unarmed man.
1
America is a democracy. China is a dictatorship. Dictatorships always function better under a benevolent dictator, but inevitably become subject to a tyrant. America’s free trade policy was supposed to liberalize China’s politics but was a dismal failure. This conflict was inevitable, and must be won by the United States. Anyone who supports China because they don’t like Trump is a traitor.
"best response would have been to work with allies to pressure China simultaneously from all sides"
China can not be pressured by Western foreign barbarians that humiliated her
Since 1839 when the British forced her to import opium in the Opium wars and then again with France in 1856 she dreamed of revenge
2
'In particular, two-thirds or more of America's fentanyl, a synthetic opioid far more lethal than heroin, appears to come from China.'
This is so ironic! Remember the Opium Wars when the British sent their navy all the way from England to China to force the Chinese Qing Dynasty to to accept all the drugs they were pouring into China against their wishes?
https://www.nam.ac.uk/explore/opium-war-1839-1842 ' ... the East India Company and other British merchants began to smuggle Indian opium into China illegally, ... Between 1839 and 1842 British navy fought a war on behalf of drug traffickers. ... This was all done with the full blessing of the British government.'
Will China send its navy to force the US to accept all the fentanyl it wants to smuggle into the US?
2
China is fighting a reverse opium war by flooding us with fentanyl. There's no way that is going on in an authoritarian state like China without the government knowing about it.
Also, China's Belt and Road Initiative sounds eerily similar to Imperial Japan's Asian Prosperity Sphere. China's ultra-nationalistic rhetoric also has echoes from Nazi Germany in the 1930's (only it oppresses its Muslims instead of its Jews). It is appearing that China does not plan to rise peacefully.
2
Both sides do it eh?
Who is the naive one with such an inane straw man?
And on what rational basis do you claim Xi hs unaware of the damage he could cause by picking fights?
Which he picked lonnngggg before Trump.
Naive?
Nah. Clueless.
2
Macron is right Nationalism leads to war and Trump the school yard bully of the world is so insecure about his macho image he will get us into a war. After all he has bone spurs and does not go nor his sons /son i law as they are grifters hanging around for payoffs like vultures. Xi has a job for life Trump could be dumped in 2020 once the country sees how corrupt the Trump family is and has been for decades. Trump has insulted all our allies which was our big strength now we stand alone and many would not mind if we collapse from our Nationalist hubris much like what Hitler did to Germany.
1
Idiots will be idiots. America is enjoying such an existing advantage in the relationship and yet cries stop thief.
68,000 U.S. companies do business in China, generating about $600 billion in revenue and $40 billion in profits. With P/E, this probably leverages to account for over a trillion dollars in American wealth.
"If that all gets shut off, I think you'll see that reflected in the stock market in the Unites States," Tssi argued on "Squawk on the Street", ahead of White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow shooting down a report that a China deal was in the works.
In contrast, because of the systemic xenophobia and discrimination against Chinese companies, the corresponding sales (by Chinese subsidiaries in America) is a measly 25 billion.
It is truly difficult to understand this talk about market access. America already enjoys a $600 billion to $25 billion advantage.
3
Trump is the naïve one. Xi has been playing him
like a Strad.
Trump gives ignorance a bad name
Look Kristof, Trump is naïve or better if you want, squarely idiot, but Xi is not, not naïve and not an idiot.
Long over due but he’s right Trumps ego screwed it up should of worked with our allies but all’s not lost just vote out Trump in 2020 and replace him with Sherrod Brown!
If there remains 'intelligent' life on our planet in 500 years, they'll all be speaking Chinese.
Focussed on India, I have little know-how about China. It is USA drug-culture that I wonder about in connection with the proliferation of "Cold Wars" recently. After No. Korea's retreat from testing missiles, here we are threatened by Trump's friends and foes alike with another possibility--the US vs. China! It seems an old motive for some folks to "drop out" of world news, whether or not they are "turned on" to dubious drugs, has returned. While such fomenting of collective paranoia (Hysteria?) may have had a role in the election campaign, what use its it now? Is it aimed at making American residents feel their government is "benevolent" by contrast [Bruno Bettelheim's thinking from "The Informed Heart"]? Does the Trump administration seek to imitate Rudolf Hitler that much?
Most of the western world has the same problem with China we have. So why are we challenging them alone? The only answer I can come up with is pure stupidity.
2
Given Nick's indifference to the racism of the odious Charles Murray it comes as no surprise that his flawed judgement leads him to miss the obvious Flashpoint of the seas.
Please explain to me why the over-compensated CEO's of U.S. corporations allow their IP to be stolen as a by-product to making profits through the sales of their products in China? And why should my tax dollars protect these multi-billion dollar companies which pay little to no taxes to support the U.S.? I've been listening to the GOP "free-market" garbage since Reagan was in office yet all I see are CEO's with their hands out demanding the U.S. government and military protect them and their products.
2
The Chinese have always been untrustworthy. The are similar to Trump in that they are entirely out for themselves. Trump will get us in financial trouble because of his impetuous attitudes and devil may care approach to our longstanding allies. He is alienating Friend and foe. When one is confronting China, you need friends at your back. The European and Asian allies are falling away from us. Trump has the requisite scienter for causing the US serious problems.
1
While I generally agree with this assessment there is still an American supremacist aspect to this that ignores deeper aspects of Chinese character, culture and history.
For most of the past 2200 years China has been a socioeconomic political educational demographic diplomatic military scientific and technological superpower. Ruling with the Mandate of Heaven the Central or Middle Kingdom stood on top of the world until it turned inward 500 years ago ceding the world to rising European hegemony.
This xenophobic ethnic Han tendency ignored the " barbarians" until it was too late. Even then China stood against the Europeans as it had the Mongols and the Manchus deflecting and changing them more than the reverse. But the British presaged the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression aka World War II that left 30 million dead Chinese beneath the Japanese Empire. See " War Without Mercy" by John Dower on the Japanese Empire's ethnic supremacist color aka race appeal during war.
The post World War II Chinese Civil War brought the Communists to power. And China stagnated under the cult of personality of Mao Zedong which starved millions in famine and impoverished millions in dubious cultural show movements. But this was Deng Xiaoping's China. A capitalist country with a term limited collective leadership.
Until Xi Jinping resurrected the ways of Mao Zedong. About 20% of humanity is Han. Mr. Xi is much smarter and experienced than Trump. China can win.
4
@Blackmamba
Win what exactly?
1
@Blackmamba
Excellent. Absolutely agree.
2
@Stuart
Global hegemony exactly aka The Mandate of Heaven.
1
As an American I am often cynical about our intentions, hubris, arrogance, and general attitudes. Wars or simply whipping up a bad press for example are profitable for some and at least bring the country together for a few moments. Right before 9/11 at least I thought I heard bad orchestrated attitudes about China brewing by a cross section of power elites. But then we were sidelined by Iraq and Afghanistan where we still are at an incredible cost in blood and treasure. Both seem a fool's errand. So now POTUS has begun stirring the pot about China again in a way that lacks the diplomacy necessary for a good ending. China is a problem as is pointed out and talked about for a decade. Our approach to stolen technology seems pathetic and preventable but is handled like our voting and Facebook problems. Other problems with China are brought to the fore in this article, all under discussion for many years. Americans love to talk things to death. One has to admire POTUS for at least doing something, although without a clue or disregard as to what he is really doing and the consequences. Who needs Dick Cheney?
1
These are absolute facts: Trump follows American people’s order. But, in China, Chinese people must follow orders from Chinese Communist Party and now the party is Xi himself. Don’t compare the two on the same basis.
Makes one wonder if Xi appreciated that “big beautiful piece of chocolate cake” served to him by our Orange white eyed raccoon leader. Odd that Looking forward from the 90’s, it was clear that China would dominate the world by the middle of this century in sheer numbers economically as well as population. Tricky Dick opened up China to American companies. At the time, he was lauded for this. American companies swooped in and taught them everything they know. WalMart emerged as a leader in bringing Chinese goods to the American market. Or should it be said that the Waltons flooded our market with Chinese goods. The Dragon is famous for biting itself. But in this case, corporate greed has been foremost as an enabler. Telling that Trump family products were mass produced there. Trump is an ill equipped leader who hopefully get his due soon.
2
Xi Dada to share the 11 dash line, which includes Japan and the Philippines at group of 20 meeting. The 13 dash line which includes the Hawaiian Islands, Channel Islands and Aleutian Chain part of the “Tranquil Hegemony” sea to shining sea vision.
Nick, it’s all Bupkis, 9,11 or 13 dashes are figments and polemics of manifest destiny a’la Horace Greeley. China historically a landlocked country with vaporous claims to Tibet, Inner Mongolia or East Turkestan.
It requires a “splitist” manifesto. Let the lands be free and come to see what they will be. There can be Han re-education camps for the mass exodus of forcibly returned citizens from those Countries. This is akin to repudiation of the Treaty of Guadalupe-Hidalgo.
Harry Turtledove alternate history book on the horizon?
Anyone who has ever spent any time in a Chinese consulate can see how agressive Xi's shift has been. I call it watching the rubber hit the Silk Road. There is a core suspicion regarding the most innocuous CHinese/American commercial transactions. The Chinese government's paranoia would turn a Trump follower green with envy.
I think the danger zone is China’s military aggression in the South China Sea. Xi knows all about his silly American counterpart’s foolishness. Xi will cunningly employ all the considerable wiles at his command to disrupt and antagonize him. It will all quite easily be done.
But China, especially in the hi-technology area of intellectual property, continues to operate counter to accepted and respectable international norms. It quite frankly puzzles me why the Xi regime needs to dishonestly acquire the fruits of another’s hard work. It isn’t as if China isn’t already fertile soil for brains and ingenuity. They’re way ahead of us on that scale. Given the current anathema for education, science and research in America, China could easily surpass us in cutting-edge edge technology and 21st Century products and productivity before 2050.
Donald Trump hates education. China’s got us all but whipped there. And with our greatest security hazard—an aging infrastructure—known to all the world, we’re all the more vulnerable to foreign manipulation than ever before. Trump’s so caught up in feverish nationalistic fantasies and caravans that he cannot begin to appreciate a terror threat from China—or anywhere else—because he can’t see past the next election cycle. China’s looking at the 22nd Century.
Donald Trump is looking backwards to pre-1861, when “America was great.” The world is moving on and, with Trump at the controls, America’s moving behind.
He’s Xi’s most prized asset.
I hope Mr. Kristof -- who usually is right -- is wrong this time.
I don't attribute any motives but self-interested ones to the Chinese, nor any particular moral scruples. But I've been going to bed at night confident that their leadership was not as ignorant, short-sighted, and reckless as ours is. I hope & pray that I'm right.
It may be that Nicholas Kristof is has been naive about China all along. Where did North Korea get its plans for its first atomic bombs? Tell me again about what happened at Tiananmen Square in 1989? How do the people of Tibet feel about Chinese occupation?
Donald Trump portrays himself as a big-picture guy who leaves the details of any policy to lesser minds.
The truth, of course, is that Trump has neither the training nor the intellectual ability to understand the details of international trade.
China’s Xi Jinping is smarter than Trump, but he is equally arrogant. For one thing, President Xi does not appreciate the potential for America to make China unwelcome in the various countries it now is wooing.
1
I think China could ultimately be held responsible for the extinction of the African Elephant and Rhinoceros for their
failure to crack down on the illegal importation of Ivory and
their recent lifting of a ban to make it illegal to use Rhino horns
for medicinal purposes.
"and it can dump U.S. Treasury bonds." ....Trump is playing with fire.
Blaming China, or any other country for our drug problem is just silly. This has been done repeatedly in past - Columbia, Panama, Peru, Mexico, Afganistan, have all been blamed in the past. Blaming China in this case is beyond ridiculous. Oxycodone and fentynl are American inventions. Out of control capitalist greed, with government assistance, fueled the national epidemic of addiction - not China. It is not suprising that some Chinese opportunists joined the feeding frenzy but that is incidental to the bigger picture. The world should rightly blame the US for the cheap narcotics flooding the world.
While it is necessary to halt unfair Chinese trade practices, it should not have been the job of the USA. What is the point in having the WTO, when it cannot even punish violations of its most basic trade laws?
So many years combating international drug smuggling did not teach anything to some Americans. It does not matter if it is inside China they are producing some kind of drugs now. Curb things there and they will produce on another country. The real problem is what conditions exist on American society that make it grows such a huge number of consumers. Had USA became a better place for regular citizens the problem would be far lower by now.
1
China is not our friend. They never will be. Only by internal strife in China will that ever change. The U.S. made so many mistakes in the short term since China entered the WTO, there is not enough space here to list them. Of one thing I am certain. This will end very badly.
1
Unlike the U.S., China has no history or precedent of democracy. True, to mollify the masses and mainly for economic gain, China has opened up since the days of Mao. Chinese citizens can now own and do more things, as long as they don't demand free speech or other basic freedoms such as those granted by our Bill of Rights. Chinese prisons are filled with activists and artists naive enough to think they had the right to demand democracy. Political and economic decisions are based on China's massaging its public image while it continues to enrich itself.
Given the absence of an internal moral imperative, and the grip that the Chinese government has on all walks of life in China, it's naive to think of Xi as naive. He and his government are much smarter than our leader and our government appear to be at present. Unless intelligent people who are not lackeys of the president come between Trump and his cluelessness, he will go down as the guy who gave away the store to the local mob boss for a song.
Knowledgeable government officials and scholars, a Republican administration and the conservative section of the electorate, may be worried about China's trade policies and military ambitions, but what can we expect from Democrats when next they come into power--what are they worried about? The temperature of the planet; stopping the economy to avert imminent heat-death. Feeding eager hordes of welfare people and excusing and rewarding their layaboutism in the interest of social fairness. Admitting millions more of them (the open borders crowd). The Chinese don't have to defeat us on the battlefield or in trade negotiations, all they have to do is wait patiently, we'll destroy our own economy and defeat ourselves for them.
You forgot to mention that both xi and trump habitually lie to their people and live in an alternate reality. That’s often forgotten about xi because that is institutionalised in China. But the results are the same.
Like Mr. Kristof, perhaps the only thing I agree with Trump on is the need to address China. Obama did little or nothing to address the imbalances and behavior threatening the relationship, despite the general support he had in the EU, elsewhere in Asia and Canada. He squandered an opportunity.
China has successfully maneuvered the North Korean threat into a US-only problem (with considerable help from Trump's bumbling), but now Trump seems to have turned the China threat into a US-only problem by alienating us from our allies. His obsession with doing things alone because of his unchecked ego and nationalistic tendencies will lead to failure.
My concern is that Xi does not have to fail. Trump will do enough failing for the both of them.
1
Nations wage a multi-faceted legal, illegal, and manipulative battle in international economic relations that has little to do with fairness or WTO rules. China, as a newcomer and rising power, steals intellectual property and uses its huge market to extract concessions from U.S. companies. The U.S. uses its power of the dollar as the international currency and ¼ share of the global economy to print money and export its monetary deflation. Trump understands one thing about economics, trade imbalances, like Lennie in of Mice and Men, “I get to tend the rabbits.” China has its Belt and Road strategy and rapidly growing economy to pass the U.S. as the major economic power, while Trump is passive, over-reacting to secondary issues, ignorant of the danger of recession or financial crisis.
Trump is about one thing: expanding his brand. I'm guessing China refuses to let him come in and build a mega-hotel so he has to figure out another way to achieve his goal. Picking a trade fight (based on some ugly stereotypes) makes him look like he's protecting American interests, so - bingo! The Trump brand scores a few more points.
As always, it doesn't matter how many of the "little people" get hurt in this game; I don't think the guy factors any of that into the equation. I don't know much about Xi, but if he's 1/10 the bully that Trump is, we all need to buckle our seat belts. This ride is gonna get real bumpy, real soon.
Let’s move away from supporting this evil government. The Chinese culture as a whole deserves a very thorough introspection. Many of its people have fled to the a West to escape persecution from within, but they often bring to their new home the same wicked value system that flourishes in Beijing. It’s time to stop playing with fire. Stop the IP theft, stop buying goods manufactured in China, stop supporting a country that wishes to supplant the US as a global power. Their exploitation of our university education system has been the biggest problem no one wants to talk about. Time to let China implode from within!
1
China has overtaken the US in terms of CO2 emission, and its record on pollution, abuse of natural resources, and disregard for our living biosphere is breathtakingly bad - not that the US is far behind. Climate change is accelerating; I suspect that the financial damage alone will create a resetting of priorities and power struggles that will make trade wars seem ridiculous.
All the military posturing in the world is worthless if people can't buy food, drink water, or breathe the air. Too bad we and the Chinese don't redirect our resources to cooperating in order to live.
War, actual physical war, must remain the insanity it is.
If China and Russia do not buy this concept, then I must suppose,
that doomsday is the final answer.
Don't ask me how I know, because I'm not all that sure about the
inevtability of MAD.
Meanwhile, expend billions after billions, it at least gives the economies
of rational paranoids the reason to be.
As Alfred E. Newman exponded prominently in the 1950s, why worry?
If you look at the picture provided, you see two men wearing dark suits,bright ties, black shoes and drinking coffee? on an oriental style table, siting on western style chairs. This demonstrates the cultural influence the West has had. Before WWII, British or European style held cultural sway. After the war Ballet, and Classical music gave way to West Side Story, Rock and Roll and Rap. Our cultural view of multiculturalism (geez, we have been that since the 1800's) gave us the ability to break a Eurocentric culture monopoly in the Western world. Following that we became the leader of this world. China has 4 time our population and an ancient culture and has learned the secrets of our economic success and is prospering in our cultural milieu. They have their own energy and it will be a new cultural reality at some point. What we hope is that the culture that they bring to the world will not be a cynical, anti-white, anti-christian, nationalistic, darkly hateful and undemocratic culture. Do we have any say in that? Probably not, but making us look cynical, anti-non white, Anti-non Christian, anti- international, hateful, dark and indifferent to democracy and human rights won't help.
The day is soon coming, and in fact may have arrived when the Chinese are more prosperous than the Americans. Take a train ride in the Northeast Corridor and then ride a Chinese bullet train if you don’t believe me. The implication is that China has changed and adapted to its circumstances, successes and failures, whereas the US has become a calcified version of a once great nation.
The day is fast arriving when Americans realize that it’s China’s world that they live in. This will inevitably lead to conflict because both countries are prideful xenophobes. Moreover, without a strong, united Western alliance, which Trump is demolishing, China will be emboldened. War will be the result.
Both countries can destroy each other and lay waste to the environment in the process. Nobody will win, but the loss will be harder for the US. You will never recover, your land will be poisoned and devastated.
These facts underscore the urgent need for dramatic structural change in the US. But change of this magnitude will never happen until the beast of capitalism is tamed, and its energies are refocused on the good of the nation.
This can only happen through a wholesale repudiation of the current political system and the deeply flawed 18th century constitution upon which it is based. It is time to shift power from backwards agrarian and former slave holding states to those states where the majority of Americans live.
2
@D Priest H-m-m-m-m. It takes a Canadian to spill the beans that our Constitution is just not keeping up with our rapidly changing world!
Excellent column; leave it to Nick Kristof to point out specifics that I, and certainly many others hadn't ever considered in this American/Chinese trade war.
Perhaps this should be served to Trump along with his MacMuffin this morning. I guarantee he's not been looking at the full picture.
Nobody has ever seemed to care what I think. About anything. My life is a total nothing.
I thought it mattered what people were thinking, but apparently it didn't matter. People wanted to spout the every thought at the top of their minds. And you know I think of the top of the mind? Every piece of garbage floats to the top. The tops of our minds are a wasteland of thoughts.
I wanted people to use the bottom of their minds, those parts that meant most to us, that nobody can penetrate. These deep workings have a lot of logic at play. Will we use them? These are the places which come, "I'll love you forever" and it is meant. "I'll stay with you forever" and it is meant. And we cannot hurt each other ever. And from that is spun a million new ideas about building wormholes, about admiring the ones that exist today, and accepting the alien intervention in our everyday lives.
Watching Trump and Xi hurl toward conflict reflects the logical consequence of two men with no shared sense of Justice Under God.
For any Atheist reading my comment, is that NOT what we would expect to happen in a world without God? Read Hawking.
Our one hope would be just to have one for one; zero for two is not a great combination and any Christian who ever voted for Trump would be wise to consider this leader who so thoroughly discredits their faith by association. He is not fit to represent the ideals which any non-Atheist clings to.
There is no Justice under science, so we are heading exactly where we should have predicted. Might makes right and we are watching this warped definition of justice under a leader who is no Christ follower. Period.
This is what the US under the leadership of an Atheist looks like.
Might makes right.
Remember that.
1
This article misses the big picture.
China, not so long ago an economic backwater, now has trains that go 300 mph. Meanwhile the U.S., which once put a man on the moon, is now building the Great Wall of China.
No wonder our two societies are in conflict.
1
And those of us in Japan and Korea are caught in the middle. The contest will likely be decided by which side has the most friends. Indeed, the TPP would have been a very strong economic platform favoring the US. Trump chose to scuttle it and he has also chosen to starve the state department, effectively crippling the two biggest, peaceful levers America had to work with: trade incentives and diplomacy. Hopefully the next US President will revive these programs, but for now, we haven’t much choice but to hunker down.
196
@Aaron
Korea and Japan run a combined $90B trade surplus (2017), importing 70 cents for each dollar of export. We have no more trade incentives to give.
We defend your countries, at great expense. We cannot bear these burdens forever.
5
@Aaron
The worst fall out from trump's delusional administration is the loss of institutional knowledge. It will take decades to rebuild the administrative state, in the mean the U.S. is crippled by the ignorance of the average American leaving us at the mercy of Russia and China and soon the E.U.
18
@Mike
Boo hoo. They give our hawks a good reason to spend the money. They'd find another way to do so when they are forced to...
What a summary, I had the priviledge of living in China from ‘94 to 2002.... seems a common qualifier to those responding to the article. I always found there were two chinas; the private on with friends who would discuss Tibet, Taiwan, Tiananmen etc and the public version where you were either a friend or a foe of China with no middle ground. I agree that Xi appears to be cut from the same cloth as Mr Trump and there will be posturing and minor compromise but ultimately neither will back down and there will be continuing deterioration in the relationship with the standard stoking of nationalistic fires. Good old New Zealand can only sit on the side and dodge the arrows but this conflict must happen solely because of Xi’s desire for global domination by any means at his disposal... the time for trying to sit in the middle has definitely passed
74
@Richard Please recall that Xi has a lifetime appointment but "what's his name" will be gone before too long... even if he should get re-elected, without a change in the constitution, that's it. Xi will take the "long view" and could prevail.
1
At least China under Xi still invests in infrastructure and tries to improve the lives of its people.
The USA, under both republican and Democrat leadership, has refused to invest in infrastructure and now under Trump actively works to remove health care coverage from many of its citizens. The only investment deemed worthy in the states is an investment in the military.
China seems to be a better run country, run by smarter people. Their future looks brighter than the USA from where I sit.
84
@Shawn Obama wanted a big infrastructure program but the GOP claimed that the deficit would be too large. Then the Trump Tax Cut came and is causing large deficits. This makes any infrastructure plan still born without tax increases. Then the GOP will claim that "the Dems just want to raise taxes".
107
@Shawn
Intelligence is never discussed as a competitive advantage in the U.S. I think that is because the Dems like to think that everyone is "equal" (or at least it is not politically correct to suggest otherwise), and the Republicans know they would suffer in the comparison.
7
Can’t you see the poisonous air you are breathing in Shanghai? I saw it when I was there. The Chinese government cares nothing for its people.
13
As for outright IP theft, that should indeed be a WTO issue. Big American importers have for decades mandated that Chinese exporters give up their IP (trade secrets, patents, TMs, copyrights, you name it) as a condition of selling into the American market. If there is to be a reconciliation of the IP lost to appropriation without due compensation, the deficit is a net of trillions of dollars of harm to Chinese enterprises in the massive suppression of the development of IP in China. This should indeed be a WTO issue. Don't think that is true? Go read the "Standard Terms & Conditions" imposed by all major U.S. importers - so there are millions of documents as evidence. Under these contracts of adhesion,Seller's trade secrets can be freely used and disseminated by Buyer; and after a short period after first import (say a year), Seller grants Buyer a perpetual license on all IP, and give up all rights of enforcement, until the life of the IP runs out. The widespread practice suppresses and kills off nascent IP portfolios before they can be developed in China. Think of why a T-shirt with a Mickey Mouse graphic sells for 500 RMB in China, and one with a design by the same Chinese supplier sells for $5 retail in America. The damage is real and pernicious. Contracts of adhesion imposed upon hundreds of thousands of Chinese exporters, multiply that by 40 years. The damage is in the many trillions of dollars.
22
@Zhubajie Yes, China is the victim here. It doesn't force companies that build factories in China to turn over every last detail before being allowed to build, only to turn around and use that information to create a local competitor, often the same Chinese company the foreign builder was forced to "partner" with.
11
@Zhubajie "Think of why a T-shirt with a Mickey Mouse graphic sells for 500 RMB in China, and one with a design by the same Chinese supplier sells for $5 retail in America. The damage is real and pernicious."
The lesson here seems to be that 'Mickey Mouse' graphics represent the cutting edge IP of China. The American reader may be somewhat perplexed at the outright absurdity of your statement, but it represents the alternate universe that the Chinese potentates seem to be living in these days.
6
@Zhubajie
Are there any links or outside evidence you have?
You listed a vague "Standard Terms and Conditions" you say American importers of Chinese goods have, but do you have a specific example? It looks like to me that you made up some official sounding terms and passed it off as a truth.
If this has been occurring for years as you say, then why hasn't China already filed a WTO report? Or for that matter, why hasn't every other trading partner of the US?
Also, can you explain why there is no Twitter in China? Or Amazon? Or Uber? Or Facebook (well, maybe that was a good move on their part)? Or Ebay? Or Paypal? Or New York Times? Or Wall Street Journal? Or Washington Post? ......
Or why Apple has to keep data centers in China and not elsewhere? Or why China has 25 - 50% tariffs on autos made outside China? Or why China's latest stealth fighters look remarkably like the US models?
I could go on, and on and on, but there's a 1500 character limit for posts.
I have a PhD in Chinese politics, but have gone on to do other things. I predicted the Tiananmen Incident and have never once believed China would soon become a democracy. I have never been upbeat about Chinese intentions either even as I have cheered on China's modernisation and the vast improvements for the Chinese people. The Chinese state has always pursued a policy in quest of wealth and power. The aim isn't, as in the West, to merely make its people wealthy & happy, but to restore China to its pre-eminent position in the world. As such, China's modernisation is a quest for world power. Deng Xiaoping has warned Party leaders not to be too aggressive to soon, but Xi Jinping seems to discarded that policy. He has reformed the PLA. His latest Party-state reforms aim to streamline governance and improve the control of the Party over society. His Double Belt policy is a geopolitical policy, not an economic one. If we are to deal with China, we need a united international community that invites China to pursue peaceful development that is respectful of the existing international order. I believe it can be done and that the Chinese people will be thankful to us for it.
174
@G.Hintzen And how do you imagine this "united international community" to come together and communicate with Xi and combat Chinese nationalism? I sense a tremendous leadership vacuum in the West and an excitement in the East about the shift in power. Yeah, I am sure the Chinese people will thank us just like the Iraqi people did.
14
@G.Hintzen
Tiananmen square is an earlier version of arab spring, colored revolutions in Ukraine, umbrella movement in hong kong. courtesy of our ngos/spooks.
I bought into it for a long time. but then I realized why all settled in the US and live with a handout from unknown source. why? how convenient.
western corporate media distorted the facts and you can find all what happened on youtube if you care to.
3
@G.Hintzen
Given all that, then Trump is way off base.
Trump's arrogance and ignorance (and frankly, total lack of knowledge, education or experience) makes him incapable of what you so aptly suggest.
The Chinese people have patience - Communist leadership is merely seventy years old - a very short period of time in its history of dynasties.
Xi can wait until Trump is gone - two years, six years - a drop in the bucket.
24
In 2016 the Chinese leadership didn’t embrace a Hillary Clinton presidency, knowing she would be a tougher negotiator. They saw Trump as ignorant, ill-informed, under-prepared and psychologically ill-equipped for the world’s most powerful office.
After his victory, many Chinese didn’t expect him to be interested in forcing changes on China’s political and economic system. America would turn inwards and plunge into chaos. They didn’t expect him to deliver and be tough on China as he pledged during the campaign. His obsession with trade deficits gradually took a nasty turn.
Under Xi Jinping China has abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s focus on economic growth and his cautious foreign policy slogan: “Hide your strength and bide your time.” Authoritarian at home and aggressive abroad, Xi's rise to global leadership has not been seen as “peaceful” as he claimed. While Beijing seeks to defy America’s global dominance, Trump lacks a new China policy, despite legitimate concerns about Beijing's unfair trade practices and hawkish policies
The current standoff is pitting the world into two camps. The longer it persists, the more likely that countries around the world will be forced to take sides. Now that Trump has alienated America’s long time allies, Xi is eager to test the international community’s affinity for China, which has been engaged in charm offensive across the globe. If acumen is anything to go by, don’t expect Trump to find a win-win solution to resolve the crisis.
2
Technology transfers in return for access to labor is not theft. It's a transaction that Americans have come to regret.
An excellent if frightening column. Couldn't help noticing, however, that you listed Chinese ownership of US debt last among Chinese options to retaliate. Seems to me that is of primary concern, and represents a serious asymmetry in this confrontation. China appears to be far more strategic, far more long-view oriented than the US, representing another dangerous asymmetry. And I can't help thinking what we could accomplish working in concert, including Europe, rather than as adversaries. Why, we might even be able to save the planet.
1
It is not as simple as not knowing the pain the other can inflict, however in Trump's case it may be true. Also, let's not forget he may be our President, but there is a good chance he works for Putin.
The world has become, and continues to become, a place where there are more equals. This is not 1945 when we were the last country standing and we deserve much of the credit for making it happen. We can no longer simply rely on our ability to bully. There are other nations, including China,that are catching up with us.
Also, remember China in many ways thinks more strategically than we do. Our definition of long term is the next election cycle, every four years. At mid century China created a 100 year plan and they have been following it since its creation.
Who do you believe willhave a better chance at success in the future?
1
For most of recorded history China has been the world's greatest economic power. But over the millennia it has undergone a number of centuries-long periods of decline, one of which lasted until just 25 years ago or so, clouding our ability to see China for what it is: a fifth of the world's people living in a dense network that gives them the potential to account for far more than 20% of the world's productive capacity.
Great economic power generates great power period, and Great Powers don't generally accept the kind of diminished role China has played through its recent centuries of weakness.
We should expect factions within China to promote an aggressive stance towards the outside world. We should try to find a way to persuade them they can gain more by being less aggressive.
We don't have the right leadership in place to present that case.
2
The major obstacles for renewed relations with China is greed and pride, for both Xi and Trump. The U.S. has had its way every since the end of WWII, and it doesn't know how to share. Xi just came on board, and he has a dream: to overtake the economic power of the U.S. And he is winning. We sold our economy to the world when we decided to become a service economy, and now we are finally waking up to our mistakes. Using such tactics as new trade agreements, tariffs, quotas, immigration constraints, etc. only shows the world of our weaknesses. China is good for America because maybe they are what it takes to wake up America to the lost strengths of the past that made us so good, made us number one, and really made us proud.
@Me Too: "...the lost strengths of the past...". You're right, but just what were those strengths? After WWII our great strength was being practically the last powerful economy left standing: but that can't be a business model. And going back long before, our strength was based on exploiting large areas of the world. We can't base an economic model on the global South remaining uncompetitive and open for exploitation. (The same dynamic can be seen in our domestic economy.) What I'm looking at leaves room for optimism -- the challenge of how we can all benefit from modern technology, without anyone being held back for someone else' benefit, at least theoretically could have happy solutions. The challenge of global warming may be much worse.
1
My greatest fear re China is that they too well recall the Western colonialism which destroyed their sovereignty, and will do ANYTHING to prevent a recurrence.
This means that AGI (artificial general intelligence), cyberwarfare, killer satellites, bio-warfare, and autonomous robots/drones will be developed with all haste, and without risk management of unintended consequences. Their strategy is China-wins, or Everybody-loses.
1
Welcome to the onset of a new cold war between the USA and China. The scary part is that, in the cold war between the USA and the Soviet Union, both sides generally had smart leaders who, even as they acted dangerously (remember the Cuban missile crisis) were smart enough to pull back from the brink. Sadly, in this cold war with China, only one side has a smart leader. Guess which one?
3
A question, more than a comment: why no mention of Chinese climate pollution. From my reading, no other country has ever faced pollution of its water, soil, and air to such dire levels. Citizens can’t breathe, grow food, or drink the water in many areas of the country. Cheap energy in the form of coal seems the bed rock of its economy, for the foreseeable future. Viscous cycle.
2
@Bill Instead of being the world leader in dealing with climate change, our president for his own selfish and personal wealth management reasons, has decided to cede this long term role to China and other countries. China has decades of terrible environmental damage to repair and cannot reverse course instantaneously, but this colossal industrial giant sees the writing on the wall and is embracing this change while America is promoting clean coal. The absurdities tell me everything I need to know about our future.
@Bill
Agree, but considering everything Trump has done & continues doing to reverse the previous gains the USA has made, I fear we won't be too far behind China in two more years.The EPA is now a laughingstock. Trump's desire for personal gain & wealth at the expense of future generations will leave us with damage taking years to undo. His GOP buddies seem blind (and/or equally greedy) to climate change reports that explain in detail what will happen in just the next decade. Let's hope the newly Democratic controlled House will provide some constraints.
Thank you for this article,Mr. Kristof. It opened my eyes to something I had not thought about.
3
I would not describe Mr. Xi as impetuous or overconfident - nor do I think that he underestimates Trump's capacity to inflict pain. He is not impetuous or he wouldn't be where he is today. Moreover, he knows exactly what he's doing and his confidence comes from a deep understanding of Trump's limitations as well as China's ability to withstand "pain."
Further, Xi is not a nationalist even if authoritarian while Trump may strive to be an authoritarian nationalist he is bound by our country's rule of law and in fact, cannot succeed. Nor will he be around forever.
I have a tough time figuring out why Nicholas Kristof has come to the opinion of his second paragraph.
4
Trump may be thinking 2020 and Xi may be thinking 2040, so wait and how the soybean Republican farmers side, and that could be a reliable sounding that politicians could navigate off of. Evaporation of U.S. technology and related jobs offshore is a powerful trend that may be too difficult to remedy in the current cycle of things. Immediate order flow into Shanghai China Tesla production facilities could highlight an important direction for world automotive production to emanate from. Germany could produce their electric vehicles there too, in order to compete with trending Tesla sales. . If the Chinese implement a powerful Gold standard and strengthen the Yuan, with their version of a crypto, then the U.S. will be reeling in regards to Chinese Hegemony. Hopefully Trump's high IQ will save the day.
3
Dear Mr. Kristof,
first of all, I like the picture from your newsletter, it so clearly states US citizen, journalist probably intelligence community.
It looks as if this is from a movie.
As for your assertion of China, I believe that China these days has changed a lot and not necessarily the way you perceive it.
Yes, Hu and even more so Xi have turned the country towards more more of China than Deng wanted it.
And yes, China has used stolen technology as a kick starter for its rise.
But those days are over.
Today, China has a vast umber of well educated brains that are already producing more research and way more patents than the US and they also have the funding for that.
China has become a power on its own working and does not need to steal any more - not that it has stopped altogether.
The opening of China too has not stopped.
Yes, the government could tell its citizens to shun US made products, but they wouldn't do so.
Using foreign made goods is a statement of being rich, even if this is an iPhone only.
Yes, they would, to some extend, switch to European brands like they have done with cars.
But they would not shun US products altogether, they would simply buy a few US brands less than before.
The real power China yields over the US is the US debt it owns.
The US would have to print huge amounts of US dollars to buy back its debt bills and that would send the USD way down, destroying its value as a global reserve currency, destroying the US economy for years to come.
21
@Thomas
Take AI (Artificial Intelligence) as an example, MIT recently announced US$ 10 hundred million to establish a new AI School. In China, since 2017, the government has invested 2.15% of its GDP each year in AI, which overtaking EU to become one of the big spenders in the industry.
What worries me the most is there are no old China hands in the Trump Administration. Those right-wing politicians take the world as their playground and think they can bully everybody around. Now Trump has put Xi into a corner. Trump not only is asking China to buy more American goods, which Chinese are more than happy to obligate; but ask China to abandon its Made in China 2025 program, which Chinese see that is the program for them to recover as one of the world powerhouses in the future. If Xi agrees to Trumps' demand, Xi will be abandoned by the Chinese people. Xi is committing suicide to his political career if he agrees to Trump's demand. Nobody in the world will agree to that.
2
@Charles Ho
"Make in China 2025 program" is an aspiration. Trump is like telling a college student he should have no aspiration to do better.
Mr. Kristof is still a lau pengyou to China, just for writing this piece. In China, publishing opinion contrary to that of the ruling authorities is not allowed--they arrest and prosecute for that--so lower down government workers often do not report bad news up the chain fearing that it will be taken as criticism. Examples: A major fire in a nightclub with eye witness accounts, authorities at the scene wouldn't acknowledge it happened; After a serious derailing, train crews tried to bury the train to cover it up; Provincial authorities are under pressure to report economic growth, and not that air and water quality are hazardous because of it. (GOP politicians do the same when it comes to global warming.) The point is, the CCP law that punishes un-Chinese like conduct prevents Chinese officials from making truthful reports to their superiors. Do we believe their economic data?
Mr. Kristof was there the night of the massacre in Tienanmen Square (His Asia reporting deserves the highest awards). He saw the danger and went home. Another reporter, Jan Wong, was in the hotel across the street and managed to stay--the press had been kicked out. Troops had been brought in; thru the night the unarmed student protesters advanced; the troops fired on them, they withdrew with their casualties then came back in, again and again. Read her account in "Red China Blues". Bullets flying, extraordinarily brave.
On the tariffs, beyond Trump, will China respond to the real problems?
4
And here I thought the TPP would have been a hedge against this. Oh, it would have been. Unfortunately, IQ45 thinks he is The Rock and going it alone while Xi is actually meeting with Abe; only IQ45 could cause centuries old mortal enemies to consult. While trump alienates all, Xi is trying to cultivate and increase allies. If those precious metals shipments stop, or become prohibitively expensive, the Ides of March will be in trump's future.
11
I always enjoy Nicholas' columns, but for him and other Americans who declare themselves as old China hands, I can't help but give a few chuckles. The current Chinese government is Chinese first before becoming communists. American should realize that, then there will be fewer misunderstanding. What the Chinese government is governing right now is exactly what the Han and the following governments were governing China a few thousand years ago until modern days. When China has a strong and capable central government, Chinese enjoy peace and stability. When the central government was weak, China was broken into warring states for hundreds of years, and common folks suffered. For this trade war, the Chinese see that Trump starts this war. Trump at first think China would yield right in the beginning. Of course now we all realize that is not the case. In the past 100 years, China has been bullied by the Westerners and Japanese, and the memory is still fresh. So it is natural for the Chinese intellectual and common folks rally behind Xi for this trade war.
49
Gee, imagine if Trump and Xi WEREN'T such "great friends"...
3
Obama's greatest achievement in his first term was the Affordable Care Act. In his second term it was to be the TPP. But he took too long to finish it, and Trump was able to flat-out kill it, rather than slowly weaken it.
That will be seen in hindsight as the last chance for America to have 'an American century' (from the end of WWII until c. 2045). Instead it was the American half-century.
If we needed a point for it to end, it would most likely be the Florida recount of 2000, and the SCOTUS 5-4 decision to anoint a Republican. All the fatal flaws in our system were exposed then.
The decline set in then, and Obama was more of a Swan Song, a last gasp for American democracy.
With the courts 5-4 or 6-3 for the next 30 years, and their support for gerrymandering and voter suppression and unlimited dark money for campaigns... we will never see majority rule here.
Such a failure, since a majority would not vote for the road to decline we are rolling down, paved by W, McConnell, Ryan, and Trump...after grooming by Gingrich, DeLay, Gramm, and Reagan in the 80s.
89
@priceofcivilization actually two SCOTUS votes in Bush v Gore. One was 5-4; the other 7-2.
2
@priceofcivilization
I agree that every single year since 2000 there has been a new and serious hit to US democracy, credibility, support for human rights at home and abroad, and ability to protect its citizens from climate change. However, I think and hope that there is still a chance for democracy here despite the strength of the anti-democratic stranglehold of Republicans.
12
@priceofcivilization
Re: TPP:
Pres. Candidate Clinton made public her non support for TPP.
2
My own study of history highlights the American Civil War and WWI. Both sides, in both wars, assumed a quick victory for their respective side. Neither the North, the South, the 1914 Germans, nor the 1914 French foresaw anything resembling the drawn out slaughter their wars wrought.
Why? I chose the word immaturity.
If that word doesn't fit America's current president, I don't what works better.
36
"immaturity" is aptly definitive but fear that vanity or even just plain humanity is as well. By "humanity" I refer not to the aspect of compassion/morality/conscience but to being human, among the worst of plagues to befall this planet. Not only is everyone potentially an Einstein, not for his smarts but for his moralistic humanity, he or she is also potentially a Hitler. This is a reference to unbound and dramatic physical violence however calculated, barbaric, overt or covert.
3
I'm not so sure that Trump and Xi "each underestimate the pain the other could inflict." I think, at least as it goes for Trump, that they simply do not care. The essential problem is that Xi is smart and calculates his moves on the geopolitical Go board. Trump is all gut feeling and impulse; he can't calculate much of anything in the realpolitik sense.
Two monster egos armed with nuclear weapons and little sense of self-restraint.
28
"China perceives a wild man in the White House who talks big but who ultimately climbed down off his high horse on trade with Europe. Beijing doesn’t seem to realize that Trump’s challenge to China arises from core beliefs and reflects a broad disillusionment with China in the United States."
I don't see much that is wrong in China's perceptions of the "wild man in the White House." I believe China looks upon the Trump presidency as a period of strategic opportunity. As would the United States if the Chinese leader were as ineffective and impetuous as Trump. If Trump's challenge to China arises from core beliefs, he hasn't articulated them, nor would he be able to do so if he did indeed have them. I really don't see a broad disillusionment with China in the United States. I see instead a certain wariness and grudging respect for a rapidly strengthening rival. Trump is sui generis. Pretending that Xi can match his folly is wishful thinking.
13
So, the entire premise of US-China relations is to be based on trade, with nary a comment about China's human rights record. For almost a century the US fought communism, its mind numbing robbery of the individual spirit and now we are willing to go along with a one-party dictat so long as we can assemble iPhones cheaply and sell it back to them.
How about asking American consumers not to buy Chinese products not so much to lower the trade deficit but so the ruling party (in China) will start to heed dissident voices?
6
@SV
Great point. We have been complicit in selling both country's citizens for cheap goods.
@SV
Not going to happen. The history of the US has been to always seek the lowest price goods. Slavery and genocide in the US for cheap cotton and land. Overseas fighting wars for territory to enslave native populations by installing dictator for their cheap labor and the resources they had, such as sugar cane, pineapples, rubber, etc.
The US has always pursued the cheapest, which is why after WWII Japan and then korea, then taiwan supplied us with cheap goods. Once we opened up china and other countries, they became the go to for cheap labor and products.
Human rights have never been considered in all that time. We allowed dictators to do what they wanted as long as they kept their part of the bargain. They got rich while we raped their country.
We support the saudis for their oil, they rank in the top 5 for most repressive countries in the world. Not even close to china. Our best friend and ally in the ME besides Israel.
In S.A. the list of dictators we put into power for what they could give us is almost all of them.
This is basic US policy, ignore the human right issue as long as we get what we want from them. And it is driven by US corporations who buy our government.
Do you really think Nike, Apple, all the other computer and phone companies, sneakers, clothes, etc, all the stuff we buy from china would go along with a don't buy from china campaign? They would shut it down so fast that it was unpatriotic to do so.
Human rights have and never will be a consideration
It’s easy to be conflicted about China. There is much to admire about what they have done to bring more people out of poverty than any country in the history of the world.
What worries me is that we are becoming more like them with about 40% of our country ready to call Trump, “Dear Leader.” We could be sacrificing our free speech and free press with this president who admires authoritarian leaders like Xi, Duterte, Putin, Kim and several in Saudi Arabia.
Perhaps Kristof is right, Xi and Trumpare too much alike to locate a solution to real differences between the U.S. and China.
9
@JT FLORIDA
The American consumer has brough the Chinese people out of poverty, not the Chinese leadership. Too bad we can’t do the same for our own people.
No mention of the irony of China sourcing the modern day fentanyl scourge given the west's history of importing and smuggling opiates (and waging two related wars) into the Middle Kingdom for well over a century?
48
@MC
You know why no one mentions that? Because American public school curriculum never explained the Opium Wars that way. For decades and continuing to today.
Instead of teaching Britain's refusal to obey China's demands to halt importing and selling opiates to Chinese individuals, public schools portrayed opium dens as part of pre-existing Chinese culture.
That irony includes Afghanistan being the source of Britain's opium trade nearly two centuries ago - and Afghanistan the source of today's heroin.
12
@MC
It’s not irony, it’s a simple plan forged by an evil government in Beijing to weaken the US from within and it’s callled revenge. China’s weakness is its obsession with revenge on the West. How much longer will America tolerate the greatest transfer of wealth from the US to China the world has ever seen? We’ll see in 2020.
1
@Jim
Wow. You got that wrong!
You are confused - it's Putin who seeks revenge. China doesn't have to as it's surpassed America.
5
You've right but this is also the culmination of two competing narratives. China is determined to make up for a century of humiliation: western nation gunboats on the sacred Yanghtzee river, Japanese troops marauding on the soil of the Celestial Empire, etc. Meanwhile the US sees itself as the bringer of peace and prosperity, the great power that avoided the sin of domination after 1945, etc. We need not only a better set of leaders but a reset in the dominant narrative. How do two powerful and proud nations coexist in peace? Like PKU and Tsinghua, Oxford and Cambridge, Harvard and Yale, Berkeley and Stanford -- we must compete vigorously within accepted boundaries amidst values of fair play and deep mutual respect. Healthy but PEACEFUL competition.
8
China looks at the foreign relations from another angle also besides the present frictions. They see it as events which happened from historical perspectives. From 1840’s to 1949 Chinese leaders emphasize it as “a lost century” when Western countries imposed Unequal Treaties on her. Opium wars, Boxer revolution, invasions by Imperial Russia and Japan, the Treaty Ports and other intrusions during 1950’s – keeping Taiwan separate from the China; all these events have influenced the present leaders of China.
Without understanding Chinese history, US will be repeating the same mistake. However this time China is no push-over. A full blown crisis triggered by the likes of Peter Navarro and others will destabilize the post WW2 world which the US has crafted and benefited.
The best way is to deal each other’s concerns with evidence and not hearsays or through megaphone diplomacy. This matter is not an election campaign where everything is thrown without thought.
21
@Ighani
Peter Navarro’s work should be read in every single junior high curriculum in the US. He is absolutely right, for all the aid we have given to foreign governments what we have received in return is mostly contempt.
@Jim
Something you might want to checkout is a rebuttal to what you have said. Peter Navarro is not correct in his strategy but is incorrect.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-navarro-misses-a-few-trade-principles-1533491476
2
I am pessimistic about any trade negotiations conducted by Trump and his administration. They are so ideological and closed minded that they would be incapable of dealing with the nuances and compromises and complexities in the details that would be essential in a fair agreement. They would prefer to grandstand and employ demagoguery rather than sober analysis. It is likely going to be a painful lesson in impulsive irrationality. And the American economy and people will suffer the consequences!
24
Mr. Kristof writes that "This is larger than Trump and Xi." But he goes on to simplify the US-China dynamic as a (1) bilateral affair (2) among equals.
Taking the latter point first, America's advantages are well known. Less evident in the West are China's advantages: a government-controlled economy with a leader who enjoys a following beyond Trump's wildest dreams, and a recent history, even pride, associated with withstanding hardships that Americans can hardly conceive of, both of which lead to a high level of social and economic resilience.
As to the first point, the relationship is also anything but bilateral. As the US has abandoned allies, discarded diplomacy and foreign assistance, and pulled out of functional economic partnerships, China has been more than willing to step into the vacuum. While the Trump kleptocracy is in a state of delusion, Xi's vision of an ascendent nation is shared (admittedly with some alarm) throughout much of the world.
34
China holds two attractions for big business that are damaging this country. First, China offers cheap labor, which allows companies to maximize profits, while undermining domestic manufacturing. Second, unlike the USA, China does not allow unrestricted foreign investment, while it promotes the theft of technology. For example, the recent authorization that American Express can do business in China came with the explicit caveat the it must share it's business model and profits with a Chinese company. For too long the US has ignored the China problem at the behest of Wall Street. "China has not played fair", whether the Trump administration has a viable plan to successfully address the problem is still unclear, but to the dismay of Wall Street they have confronted the current inequitable economic relationship between the US and China.
8
Of course any deal Trump makes with Xi "may only be a temporary respite". Trump depends on a chaotic and combative relationship with anyone not under his control for political drama and to create imaginary foes to rally his believers. Trump also either habitually or automatically views any deal that another party considered fair as "not good enough". It is a waste of time to negotiate with someone who interprets "I agree!" as "You could have asked for and gotten more!".
Who could have watched the last two years and concluded that they can reach a lasting agreement with the current American government? I would be very suspicious of any world leader who continues to pursue one.
5
Nicholas, your quote from Paulson was sobering.
As was the terrific photo (talk about body language) of Trump and Xi, leaders of the world's two largest economies in the world, sitting like stone-faced carbon copies of each other.
I had never considered how alike they were, in demeanor, impulsiveness, and underestimation of the other.
Ever since Trump took office, I've been waiting for the proverbial other shoe to drop, in any number of areas. But when Trump got into his tariff-rattlings, well, that gave me pause.
This man has put our country on the brink because of his reckless handling of the economy, particularly a tax plan rushed through his Republican majority with no foresight other than rosy projections that seemed too good to be true--and they were.
Our economy is weakening in direct proportion to the risk Trump is taking by taking on Xi all by himself. It's a game of economic chicken that can only end badly.
The economy seemed to be the last thing under Trump that would suffer the slings of outrageous fortune, once the president took an ax to banking rules, the environment, immigration decency, civil liberties, our natural resources (parks etc.), the FBI and DOJ, and the choices and rights of so many--from people of color and naturalized citizens to the LBGT community and women in general.
It just takes the economy longer to show its fault lines.
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To maintain 7% growth to forestall the inevitable uprising, The Party has put so many market stimuli that this may have built a house of cards.
On the other hand, the USA is a continental sized balanced economy that likes of which have never been seen. The great recession and the great depression would have caused a revolution in any other nation.
What do you think an economic slowdown will do to the communist party? Or a recession in a country whose welfare system makes Texas look like Norway?
5
The other day, Trump said the tariffs are resulting in "money pouring into our country."
I think he thinks that the tariffs are paid by the Chinese. Somebody should set him straight.
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@Matthew Hughes
I'm sure many have tried to set him straight. To no avail.
He is either stupid or can't remember.
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@Matthew Hughes Mr. #PLIC knows that his cult will believe his lies. That is all he needs to know.
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@Marc. Simple example: I am planning on purchasing a bike from the Giant Corporation. This bike is made in China and was about $700 before the 10 % tariff. Thus, it is currently it is selling for $770. If China imposes a 25% tariffs, the bike seller told me the cost will increase at least $100 to $880, if not more. Americans pay the cost of Trump's tariff wars.
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Trump and Xi may be very much alike but Xi is much, much smarter. And that's scary.
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@sophia
Precisely *how* is Xi much much smarter? Enlighten me, please! Meanwhile, I would like to help you out about understanding "smarts"; we can even work back and forth together, helping each other out.
I find smarts is a product first and last about breadth of learning, and our learning depends on how we fundamentally value, you know, our universal matrix of values, both sides. Our earliest (childhood) side is almost solely about group dynamics and our resulting hierarchy-premised learning.
Such is just one-half of our behavioral deck of cards. We can be brilliant -- as long as no one else gets to play with the other half of the deck, *our* equalitarian- established side, the opposing side brought into existence by first fundamentally valuing equality. Of course, we *all* value a sense of equality, at least for ourselves never mind someone else which is our immediate mistake.
However, when someone else comes back through playing with the opposing half-deck (which is with better psychological competence), h-p learning can serve us in a really really stupid fashion -- our surrounding world is all comparative!
My question: where do you get off in apparently not even having your own other half of *our* deck of operating cards, the part filling in for most-comprehensive learning and psychological competence which you refer to as "smarts".
My position: We need to developmentally wake up; we are seriously now running behind much of the surrounding world. Help each other.
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@sophia. And yet Mr. Trump beat the best qualified person to be president. Odd.
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@sophia
Who ISN'T smarter than Trump?
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Neither side plays fair. Fair is a concept that respects international laws, treaties and norms of behavior.
China is still in the Paris agreement and the Iran Nuclear agreement.
US imports from China are up almost 25% since the tariffs. Exports to China are down close to 25% since the tariffs.
Once the recession that's impacting the rest of the world hits us our imports will start failing like a stone. Trump understands that without a very strong economy even Republicans will throw him under the bus.
Xi also understands that there are very sharp knives in China waiting for him to stumble.
I suspect we get a great deal on trade.
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Good reporting leads to good insight. The resurgence of nationalism brought on by both Trump and Xi is fracturing our emerging international order based upon human rights and the rule of law. It's helpful to look back to see our way forward. As we approach the 70th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights this December 10, let us look back at that common standard for all who govern, be it Trump, Xi or others. And let all of us move forward, in every country, to assert basic rights with all who govern through the expansion of regional court systems and signing to support the IDEA of a Global Bill of Rights at the Unite for Rights website www.uniteforrights.org
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Mr.Kristov, thank you for this sobering assessment of The challenges facing both China and the United States.I hope it gets translated into Chinese so Mr.Jinping can read it and I hope Mr.Pompeo reads it and translates it into simple terms for Mr.Trump.Trump is winging it when it comes to trade policy hoping that his threats will make a difference.Mr.Xi has a long term plan on trade and will be in office years after Trump leaves.Mr.Trump needs to give up his , America, the great powerhouse notion, and get real about the balance of trade which needs to be struck so both nations can prosper.Blather and bluster are not the tools of serious negotiation.
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Xi and Trump are both problematic leaders, but China's distinct history shows the limits of an analogy. China has consistently expected citizens to personally sacrifice for the good of the nation (as in the one child policy), has muzzled media including the internet, been openly friendly with other global abusers of human rights, and has undemocratically given absolute authority to one political party (Communist). Further, China has steadily launched itself as a major global power, where the United States is struggling to retain its onetime stature.
While Trump has succeeded in using China as a foil, he did so for all the wrong reasons, namely accusing them of 'raping us' in trade and failing to staunch North Korea's nuclear ambitions. A better figure than Trump would find more serious criticisms than those, and also would not reflect the worst of China's behavior.
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Kissinger decided communist China would be an ally against the USSR. China knows the US will use Russia similarly against China so they are developing better relations first.
It seems the US does not know it yet, that it will soon try to align Russia, not India, with them against China. In the Asian century the US will try to develop friendships with many Asian countries that it would not have considered remotely in the past.
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If win through nuclear means, we will all lose.
We're fighting a fight of people's rights. Our countries are both wrong! We, as the US should not be using your Chinese labor so easily. We should acknowledge every American labor right to every Chinese worker immediately! Cost is not the main factor here.
We went through the same problems in early America, and we developed a set of laws to protect workers. You must do the same or we will withdraw our companies from your services.
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@DudeNumber42
Like any of our companies would ever withdraw from china or let the US government which they own to demand they do so.
Those companies are in china because of cheap labor and costs. The US government has alway supported US companies in business overseas, it is why wars have been fought. To get something for our US companies.
Our history is that the government installs or befriends dictators to get the cheapest labor and resource. It's why we had slavery in the US. It is why the natives had to be killed, for free land.
Those laws for workers were earned by the blood of the workers. Now the US government is doing it's best to help the companies take away all those rights. The worker only wins temporarily.
While Americans elect leaders promising major change within four year Presidencies or quicker, Chinese leaders look forward by looking backward centuries ago.
One country seems to push for tactical change as a necessity, the other accepts tactical goals but it is usually within a strategic framework of ideological imperatives.
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