Theresa May and Her Brexit Deal Are on the Brink. Here’s What We Know.

Nov 16, 2018 · 45 comments
Duncan (Los Angeles)
We're not being very good friends to the Brits. When your best friend has had one too many, and is walking around the party with toilet paper stuck to their foot and their trousers on backward it's the act of a good friend to steer them into a cab and take them home to sleep it off. But of course we have President Cruella, who is only too happy to point and laugh with the others.
Maxie (Johnstown NY)
Of course a second referendum! Many people didn’t understand what they were voting for or they voted out if anger. Same for the equally disastrous vote for Trump here. The mid-terms proved many regret that vote - Democrats won in many districts carried by Trump in 2016. Of course most American voters didn’t vote for him in 2016 either - 3 million more voted for Hillary Clinton. In any case, if British voters could have a chance to fix their mistake they should take it.
We the Pimples of the United Face (Montague MA)
The referendum was impossibly vague because no one expected it to pass. No one knew what it meant then, and no one still knows what it means today. Most likely no one ever will know what it meant. The only sensible solution would be a new referendum laying out all choices in all their bloody detail.
Christopher Gerety (Birmingham, Alabama)
Theresa May should say “I’m outta here. Cheerio!” Why face grief from all sides over an intractable, unsolvable and unloved problem such as Brexit.
William (Memphis)
The 1,000 year Tory dream: Lords in the castles and the rest of us dead or naked in the fields.
ogn (Uranus)
It's such a wonderful idea that they've been savoring it something like ~870 days, or it's a train wreck they've put off as long as possible. Britain's long experiment with austerity has been a disaster as will Brexit in my opinion.
ALB (Maryland)
How does May have any leverage at all in negotiations? The rules say that if a country leaves the EU without a “deal,” then it’s a “hard Brexit” by default. The departing country gets saddled with a big fee. That’s also under the rules. May’s main goal at this point is to preserve the open border with Ireland. As far as I can tell, all the people who should be working on this have simply thrown up there hands instead of rolling up their sleeves. It’s easy to just walk away from the mess the Brexiteers created and point fingers later. Under all circumstances, those who voted to leave are going to wish they never had. May deserves a lot of credit for doing everything she can to get as good a deal as possible for the UK. I wish her luck.
Amsivarian (North)
The Brexit vote was based on fraudulent proclamations by its proponents Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, and such ilk. The famous 350 Mill pounds lie, the racist hysteria of invading Polish, Balkan, and non-white Commonwealth hordes, the new Fremdarbeiter of the UK, the nationalist proclamations of the UK being a vassal or slave to the EU, and so on. The UK is in shambles (let's not even mention Scotland, N. Ireland, etc.) and has maneuvered itself into the proverbial corner with demanding to stay in the EU custom union (i.e., reap the benefits), but close its borders to free movement (i.e., keep non-Brits and others out, which slightly violates a fundamental EU tenant for its citizens to move freely), while keeping access to the financial markets (i.e., reap the benefits, we just want to choose which). Why do those topics sound familiar and where has it gotten us and them?
Ben (Carmel, IN)
This notion that "the people have spoken" about Brexit sure does make a lot of assumptions, not the least of which is: "the people had a thorough understanding of what they were voting for". It's childish to pursue Brexit full-steam ahead while it's popularity wanes. What Theresa May and members of her own party simply won't admit is that Brexit only succeeded because the public did not have all the information. Nigel Farage stood in front of a bus that proclaimed that the $350M pounds that the UK gives to the EU each week, could go towards Britain's healthcare instead; I can't help but wonder what some Brits thought when he subsequently backtracked on that claim, essentially saying to all of the UK: "you've been had". Truly, I don't know how politicians (be it the US or the UK) got the impression that - once they were elected - their constituents' fates were sealed until the next election.
toom (somewhere)
@Ben I remember Boris Johnson standing in front of that bus. Perhaps Boris and Farage took turns for the photo op. In any event, BoJo and Farage are bigger liars than Trump, and that is really something. In short, another vote on the Brexit as it now stands would be very useful and democratic.
nom (LAX)
WWII ended with Europe stable yet fractured. When the wall came down in Berlin, it paved the way for a united Europe. It had everything going for it except leadership. That the UK decided to cut and run did not make sense. Not for a country that had arguably the largest world-wide leadership fingerprint since the Roman Empire. It now teeters on crisis and indecision. Hopefully, the rest of Europe will find it's way after Ms. Merkel departs. Those lurking in the shadows will be waiting to see which way that goes as well...
Luke Mansingh (Fanwood, New Jersey)
@nom. .... Mrs May departs
MED (Mexico)
The EU is important to me, you, Europe as a whole, as well as the World. On our blue orb in a very lonely, dark, and cold Universe, "nationalism" becomes a dangerous irony as If any of us are going anywhere else. Britain is important in principal as a "special" member of the EU, special being all the exceptions it has already received. In the meantime in the name of God, nationalism, and greed humanity continues to kill each other or cut links with other tribes. I hope for another referendum as now that its citizenry has a glimpse of the true cost of Brexit, it will come to its senses. Humanity has many problems a good deal more serious than those we seem to be persuing.
Innocent Bystander (Highland Park, IL)
This is a little like waking up in the morning with the girl you brought home from the disco and realizing that maybe it wasn't the best move after all. Now that the issues can be seen more clearly, it's time for another referendum. It's widely agreed that Brexit was sold to the nation under some patently false pretenses. Why double down on a half-baked con job?
Joseph (Kampala)
Democracy is meant to be representative. Matters like Brexit are too complex for ordinary voters to comprehend hence the need for well funded representatives to make well thought out decisions on behalf of the people. David Cameron abdicated this responsibility when, because of political expediency, he promised a referendum to the people. Many Britons who voted to leave are suffering buyers' remorse and eager to restore sanity. A second referendum will provide the country the opportunity to allow its representatives to negotiate improved terms within the union.
Philip (London)
@Joseph 'Matters like Brexit are too complex for ordinary voters to comprehend hence the need for well funded representatives to make well thought out decisions on behalf of the people'. Hahaha.......God help us all.
gary e. davis (Berkeley, CA)
Given that the no-Brexit option is the only one that Parliament applauds, the majority of Brits don’t want Brexit, and there’s great clamoring by the public for another referenduum, what kind of government simply refuses to permit another referendum? Citing as likely reason for no referendum “the fact that there’s a deal on the table” deflects from the fact that the point of the deal is to serve the people, and they want a vote! Believing that “negotiators in Brussels got the better of the prime minister” is irrelevant because that “better” is about staying married, not divorcing. The issue is not a matter of national ego vs. continental ego. Brussels wants Britain to stay! Apparently, PM May is more concerned about the willful vanity of her administration than she is about being responsive to reality. The people of Great Britain want to stay married to the great Union!
Mark Thomason (Clawson, MI)
A great many people in and from Britain reorganized their lives in reliance on the benefits of being part of the EU. A great many businesses organized themselves relying on the advantages (and avoiding disadvantages) of being part of the EU. This reliance has gone on for a whole generation. People moved, and families formed, based on this. It is thus more than just, "Is it a good idea to be in the EU?" Rightly or wrongly, that yes/no decision was made a long time ago, and things moved on in reliance on that. Now it is about all the things done in reliance. Unwinding all of that is not merely yes or no anymore for the basic relationship. It is the difference between deciding to marry, and deciding to get a divorce after a long marriage with kids and a retirement plan done together. There seems to be a large part of Britain that regrets the original decision on yes/no. The problem they are having is how to do a divorce, or even if they can. It is really and entirely different question from the one most talked about by both sides.
Frank (Boston)
The arrogance of Brussels is on full display. These are the same people who live the high life while Spaniards suffer 25% unemployment (50% youth unemployment), while Greek seniors suffer the loss of benefits through austerity, and while Italians are left all by themselves to handle wave after wave African refugees.
Bill McGrath (Peregrinator at Large)
One of the weaknesses of democracy is the voters' inability or unwillingness to grasp the consequences of complex decisions. Shameless populists inflame fears without addressing the probable collateral damage of policy initiatives. The Brits bought Brexit; the Yanks bought Trump; the Germans bought Hitler; the Italians bought Berlusconi. It raises an obvious question: are humans really capable of self-government? Sometimes I wonder...
Mark Thomason (Clawson, MI)
@Bill McGrath -- Democracy is great. Voters rejected the anti-democratic tendencies of the EU bureaucracy. They were right to do so. The remedy, not so much, but that is a leadership failure to acknowledge the voters' concerns. Voters rejected the status quo offered by Hillary. The alternative is awful too, but that can be fixed now that we've established that things just won't go on and on as they had. Italians rejected the kaleidoscope government of revolving doors. They got stability, for many years. Now Italian politician must face the real task of providing real government instead of their insider games that did so much damage. Germans did not buy Hitler. They rejected war in the streets by armed militia of many factions. It was the elite that chose a "controllable" Hitler as least bad, and invited him in with only about 1/3 the voters behind him. The camel was invited into that tent, and not by voters. Don't bash democracy just because your rotten candidate justly lost. Wake up. She was awful, and you deserved to lose. That's why you lost, not because voters are stupid or democracy is a bad idea.
Spence (RI)
@Bill McGrath Self-government is simply the ability for voters to decide among political candidates and issues. without themselves or the candidates fearful of being killed or arrested. Legal shenanigans, wrongheaded thinking, and empty promises are allowed.
C. Neville (Portland, OR)
@Mark Thomason: Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. H. L. Mencken
LH (UK)
There are reasons why May doesn't just call a second referendum. There's a strong overlap between Leave voters and older, traditionally Conservative voters. There's also a strong overlap between pro Leave media and traditionally Conservative supporting media. To actively drop Brexit would be to create a gaping hole in her own party's key support, and it would be unlikely to be a policy that gains many extra votes from elsewhere. It might be best for the country but it could put her party out of power for a decade. For the Tories, the best result is to get a workable deal through Parliament, pretty much regardless of what's in it. What happens when that fails is the interesting question. It's now obvious that leaving without a deal would be hugely economically damaging, but equally important politically, it would hand power to the hard Brexit right and the rest of the Tories have come to loathe them in the last few months. I suspect there will start to be calls for a 'regrettably unavoidable' second referendum from the Tory ranks but not till after May's deal is officially dead.
Eddie B. (Toronto)
Brexit "referendum" was a farce, full of lies and misinformation pumped out by a huge propaganda machine funded by the likes of Nigel Farage. Now that the facts are out, Mrs. May should act courageously and let the UK people decide. If not, she stands to have her name on pages of UK history inscribed in infamy forever.
Andrew Wing (London, UK)
The problem is in the detail; the only Brexit deal that is non-negotiable is No Deal. Two pro-Brexit Brexit Ministers have failed to negotiate what they want. So, David Leonhardt, it is neither fair nor correct to refer to the deal on the table as "May’s muddle-through". There has to be a pragmatic middle road and whatever the outcome, Theresa May deserves credit for managing a very difficult bureaucratic compromise. The sooner the UK media start talking about the benefits of a compromise, rather than commentating on "In-Out" like it's a must win boxing match, the easier it will be to resolve. Otherwise another referendum seems likely.
Dennis Galon (Guelph, Canada)
Many here and many in Britain see a second referendum as the best way forward, and most of us holding this position also support the UK remaining in the EU. The question is how to get to that second referendum? If sanity prevails, her caucus will not dump May. For if she is voted out there, I believe that triggers a party wide vote which will take time, running down the clock, and perhaps triggering a no-deal Brexit. It would also, I presume, prevent the deal coming before Parliament. Assuming sanity, May will be left in place, the deal will be rejected by Parliament, and, forced by her caucus and cabinet, Theresa May will call the second referendum, her "third option." Assuming a "Remain" result, the EU will have the upper hand it setting the terms for Britain to remain/rejoin. My money says, the EU will be generous, for having the fundamental alliance of Germany, France, and England as fervent supporters of the EU, is the essential key to its future, to holding others together, and to its expansion. And eventually, granting the clear desire of the people of Ukraine to join the EU and NATO, will transform the relationship between the West and Russia. For, IMHO, the biggest winner of the UK leaving would be Russia. And if the sanity path I have suggested were to pan out, calm will return to the UK, and in that calm they will probably discover Russia had a hand in the financial shenanigans of the Remain campaign in the first referendum. Peace and Joy for all.
nolongeradoc (London, UK)
@Dennis Galon "For, IMHO, the biggest winner of the UK leaving would be Russia." I'm sure Mr Putin agrees. He's certainly paid enough to make it happen. I pray that everything else you wrote comes true.
William (Memphis)
@Dennis Galon ... sanity? You mean competence in governance. Tories lost this years ago.
MIKEinNYC (NYC)
Wasn't the real impetus behind Brexit to allow Britain to control its borders so that the immigrants that Germany permitted to invade Europe could be kept out? As such, maybe they can devise a plan so that the economic aspects of EU membership can be retained while allowing Britain more leeway to better control its own borders as Britain sees fit.
nolongeradoc (London, UK)
@MIKEinNYC "Wasn't the real impetus behind Brexit to allow Britain to control its borders so that the immigrants that Germany permitted to invade Europe could be kept out?" No, no and no. This is classic Brexiter propaganda. It's only EU citizens (citizens of EU member states) that have freedom of movement. Mrs Merkel charitably offered *residency* to the Syrians. Residents in German have to stay in Germany. In about 8 years, they'll be eligible for German citizenship and after, they get freedom of movement. But by then, they won't be 'immigrants'. Germany's geographical neighbours are in the Schengen Agreement. That means they have open borders without immigration controls, so Mrs Merkel's Syrians can travel freely to France, Spain or whatever within the Schengen zone. They're still immigrants without right to remain or work there. It's actually the French (and they've received very little thanks, or cash for it) who have kept these - and many other immigrants - out of the UK. Northern France around Calais is a most miserable place, the sort of landscape Mr Trump would admire at the Mexican border. After Brexit, it's likely that France is going to withdraw from patrolling Britain's borders meaning that many more immigrants will arrive on UK shores. Thanks Brexit.
MCV207 (San Francisco)
Theresa May's high-wire act is painful to watch. Her tortured answers at yesterday's press conference, dressed up with little winking asides with the press corps, suggested her heart is just not in this. Maybe the Conservative MPs will do her a favor and let her off the hook. Whoever does the final deal, and the inevitable phony victory dance, will be forever on the wrong side of history. Just like America will regret electing Trump, Britons will rue the day they voted "yes" on Brexit. The last gasp of nationalism disguised as populism is imminent.
The Observer (Pennsylvania)
It seems from the remarks and anguish of so many caught between being European living in Britain and British living in Europe, with different citizenship of their spouses and children and also a total disbelief on the part of a large number of British citizens, Brexit was a horrible blunder. Since misinformation and propaganda might have played a major part in the Brexit decision, why is it such a problem to have another referendum to ascertain the true desire of the of the majority? Why is such a strong desire to cement the blunder?
nolongeradoc (London, UK)
@The Observer "Since misinformation and propaganda might have played a major part in the Brexit decision, why is it such a problem to have another referendum to ascertain the true desire of the of the majority?" Because the Brexiters are hugely resistant to another vote. Because they know (or at least strongly suspect) they will lose. Because the impact of 'misinformation and propaganda' is difficult to assess and because the Leave side weren't the only ones guilty of it. But, but, we DO know that the voting was criminally manipulated through campaign funding fraud. The Leave side have been caught and found to the criminal standard (beyond reasonable doubt) of illegally laundering a huge extra tranche of non-permitted funding at a crucial stage of the campaign using 'false flag' entities set up for the purposes of electoral fraud - giving them a clearly unfair advantage. Prosecutions are in train. There are allegations that Mrs May has personally obstructed the police investigation of these matters. She has certainly invoked an arcane legal technicality to explain why the vote hasn't been declared void.
PT (Melbourne, FL)
A brash, go-it-alone attitude is at the base of the ill-conceived Brexit push, now caught in a quagmire. Strong interdependence and lowered barriers, both economic and cultural, is a powerful force that can both create market efficiencies and prevent future conflicts. But cowboy mentalities everywhere, best exemplified by Trump himself, are working against these positive values. And while Macron is right to blame nationalism for the horrendous world wars, too few are listening, and even fewer acting.
LennyM (Bayside, NY)
The original sin, of course, was to subject such a complex subject to a public referendum. Claims were made during that campaign by persons with no responsibility for the eventual outcome. David Cameron realized that too late and quickly resigned after the unexpected result. If ever there was a decision that called for a careful deliberation after considerable multi-committee hearings and debate and a full legislative debate, Brexit was it. When voting to leave the EU the British people had no correct idea what they were getting into. The Prime Minister cannot reconcile the Northern Irish border issue. It is impossible. Then there are the Scots who may leave the UK if there's a no-deal Brexit. Next the Welsh? The EU was never going to be terribly cooperative lest it establish an easy leave for other members. The only way out, unfortunately, is for a second referendum and the hope the people will vote to remain. Hope and a prayer!
William (Memphis)
@LennyM The whole thing is and has been a naked power-grab by incompetent Tory scumbags.
Adapt To A Crowded World (Pittsburgh, PA)
Brexit is the worst idea of the 21st century, possibly even worse than Donald Trump being President of the U.S., if that’s possible.
Pgathome (Tobacco,nj)
england-also US-knowingly pursue a policy that 'shoots themselves in the foot'.
George (US)
Ok, I watched May speaking in parliament about this. When she brought up the option of scrapping Brexit, there were loud cheers. Then her eyes got big and she stared around the room with a look of utter contempt and hatred. Not very sportswomanlike.
Liz (Saugus, MA)
Question: if, by some miracle, the Brits decided to abandon Brexit, could they actually do so; that is, would the European Union even entertain such a radical change of heart, even if supported by a new referendum in the UK, given all the work that has gone into the secession?
manfred marcus (Bolivia)
If the British have an ounce of common sense, they would clamor to cancel Brexit, as it would isolate them from the world, all due to their xenophobia. They can do better. As they ought.
ImmigrantCitizenDude (San Francisco )
I've come to appreciate why Britons voted for Brexit in 2016. If Britons do not give Theresa May a fair opportunity to proceed with Brexit, a severely weakened UK will end up with the worst deal possible. If not May then who?
Pgathome (Tobacco,nj)
what do you' appreciate why britons' voted for brexit? please explain.
Dennis Galon (Guelph, Canada)
@ImmigrantCitizenDude Nonsense. If Therese May is NOT allowed "to proceed with Brexit," the UK will not necessarily end up "severely weakened...with the worst deal possible." Your scenario will occur ONLY IF the May-deal is rejected in Parliament, and a no-deal Brexit ensues at the end of March. In that event you may be right. However, as May herself said in Parliament, there is a third option--a second referendum, which polls now suggest would return a "Remain" result. To get there, however, IMHO, May's caucus must refrain from dumping her, for that could prevent the deal from coming before Parliament where it will be defeated. So, if sanity prevails (not guaranteed), May will survive, Parliament will reject the deal, and Theresa May, pushed by her caucus and her cabinet, will call a second referendum. "Remain" will win. And all will be well with the world once again. (Remember, Trump is only temporary, an actualized Brexit, would have a much, much long life span.)