Every single one of the author's prognostications are contingent on whether the person being polled is telling the truth and on whether the people who cooperate with pollsters are representative of the population at large.
I think right wing voters are more likely to lie or to refuse to answer pollsters' questions.
First, many right wing people are older and have some of the traits of a curmudgeon. They are irritable, don't like prying people and like to be left alone. They will hang up the phone. Do you think Archie Bunker likes to be bothered by nosy pollsters.
On a more serious note:
I think that when race is at issue, right wing voters are dead set against being polled. In the 1989 Virginia Governor's race, the Democratic nominee, a black man named Doug Wilder, was more than 15 points ahead in the polls. He won, but by 2 points. (Similarly, in that same year, David Dinkins was 7 points and more ahead in the polls in the NY mayoral race. He won, but by about 2 or 3 points.)
My theory: Many white right wingers are terrified of black people and lie to pollsters, say they support the black or liberal candidate, because they fear that if they tell the truth, black people affiliated with the pollster will harm them. I know this sounds crazy, but it is crazy to say George Soros, 14 and Jewish when the Nazis came to his town, aided the Nazis, but the paranoid right believes this.
5
Call me stupid but how does Gerrymeandering and dastardly tricks come into play for candidates for the US Senate? Since that is a STATEWIDE office, unlike the House where such tomfoolery is widespread and leads to minority underrepresentation, how can the same affect a statewide office like Governor or Senator? Of course we know that in Georgia, for instance, the GOP candidate also happens to be the Secretary of State for Georgia, thereby attempting to disenfranchise the electorate but for US Senate? I don't understand how the Dems are at a disadvantage over their rivals.
Oh. What happened to the Blue Wave? lol
3
Golly I hope that is an 'official' Official Ballot Drop Box.
1
We are at a tipping point for our nation. Your vote matters even if you think the process is flawed. Not voting is even letting o more vocal few have their say for all of us and right now it seems that the message is negative and not inclusive. Include your voice!
2
With midterm 2018 elections tomorrow my election outcome prediction us anything I predict could be proved wrong by voters who will vote freely and independently for the candidate of their choice to keep America safe, borders secure and our economy stable with almost all Americans employed. So I predict nothing other than it could be a historic mid term with the highest voter turn out in history. JUST VOTE.
2
As much as I enjoy using a computer in my daily life. I firmly believe we need to go back to some form of paper ballots. Or a paper receipt recording your vote. Something! Too many things can go wrong with electronic voting and there is no way to recover lost votes.
Especially now that we have elections decided one way or another by such small margins.
VOTE!
7
@Cheryl
WA has mail-in (or official ballot drop boxes around the larger--for the state--cities) voting with postage paid envelopes. No lines!
I voted two weeks ago by dropping my ballot off in a nearby drop box and my ballot was accepted already (I can check that online) and will be counted.
3
@Cheryl Remember the fiasco of hanging chads and butterfly ballots in the 2000 election. Paper ballots are not a cure-all either.
@Jacquelyn Chappel
WA paper ballots are "fill in the oval" variety so there are no hanging chads.
2
Dems are going to vote Dem, Republicans are going to vote Republican. The wildcards, which none of the polls can predict, are those who voted for Trump, and will vote “with” Trump in the midterms. The other wildcards are independent voters who vote for the candidates vs. the party, and the issues that are important to them, and affect them directly. I can’t see either group wanting to return to what the Dems gave them for 8 years vs. the accomplishments of rhe past two years.
5
@TheRealJR60
White Republican Women. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/podcasts/the-daily/white-evangelical-women-trump-beto-texas.html?action=click&module=Briefings&pgtype=Homepage
Americans love statistics, and the statisticians' detailed calculations in specific cases may be complicated, and combining them into an overall electoral prediction even more complicated.
But the bottom line is I think very simple: the upset of 2016 based on unexpected polarization does not prefigure another unexpected upset. It rather prefigures a pretty straightforward extension of the very same polarization on a national level, as the battle lines become ever clearer in your new Civil War.
2
The republicans will take the house for two reasons 1) 45 republicans have retired but republicans vote for policies so they will probably vote republican. 2) millions of conservatives have been at President Trump’s rallies or watched on youtube. Republicans and independents are ready to vote in large numbers and cast a conservative vote
Republicans will take the senate. After seeing how the democrat party treated Judge Kavanaugh many republicans now vote a straight republican ticket. Conservatives aren’t giving the democrat party any votes.
5
@Prediction
To me that's more like Wishful-Thinking than Prediction.
1
Let me share some thought as a Republican who voted for Hillary, shared for my Democratic friends. People who support Trump are intimidated to speak out, especially in the mainstream media but also on social media. If you don't understand this, you are in a bubble. That means that perhaps many of the polls that indicate a Democrat wave (or even a mini wave) may vastly underestimate pro-Trump, or pro-Republican voters, as I suspect that pro-Republican voters are disproportionately unlikely to respond or be honest in polls. In addition, I suspect that many groups that do not traditionally vote will overestimate their ability / willingness to do so. So be prepared for surprises. That said, I wouldn't predict anything given the 2016 washout for the pollsters. We'll all see and have great fun engaging in "confirmation bias" on Wednesday!
7
I think you are correct. After seeing President Trump’s accomplishments, will you now vote for his policies in the midterm election?
4
This has been the most call-filled election I've ever lived through, with 4 people ringing my door yesterday on Sunday, 4-6 calls per day for the last week, and signs everywhere. Didn't count the calls I've had for the past month.
All door-ringers were Democrats, and 22/24 phone calls were Democrats, including Obama's call today.
I can't wait until this thing is over.
1
None of this matters. People should just go to the polls and do their civic duty.
7
Trump sent an army on a grossly political mission. Next he may send army to squash newspapers. That is not paranoid. I'm retired after 50 years in journalism only to have to endure sick daily attacks from our president. Only a fool would believe he won't escalate.
11
"Three Little Words"
VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!
6
What happens when the weather is bad? Rain is forecast for tomorrow for much of New England, heavy at times. Will voters stand in line outside in a cold November rain? I wish I had voted last week!
3
@Greener Pastures
Four words:
Mail-in paper ballots.
We do it. It works!
Remember what Adlai Stevenson said when a supporter told him:
"Governor, all thoughtful people will vote for you." And Stevenson answered:
"That's not enough. I need a majority."
25
One consistent fact we have seen from 2016 is that a large number of secret Trump supporters who refuse to disclose even to polls that they support and will vote for his policies and candidates.
If this latest data on the closeness of the polls is to believed (and is not just a get out the vote strategy) then the “silent Trumpers” might deliver a few surprises.
9
@Adib Regarding the silent Trumpers, it really does depend on where you live. It is the reverse in the red states. The Trumpers are very loud and carry guns in Knoxville.
1
All these great excuseds from Democrats to explain Republicans getting elected: Vote Suppression, Gerrymandering, the Russians. Why has nobody pointed out the plausible culprit: The Boogey Man?
6
Wait, I thought it was going to be a "blue tsunami"? that's all I've read for the last year or more! half the articles here on the NYT say "temper your expectations" and the others insist that turnout -- which is assumed to be Democratic -- will be TWICE AS HIGH as in the Presidential election, which would be historical and unique in US voter history.
But I keep reading articles that contradict each other. So what does THAT mean?
5
@Concerned Citizen
Anxiety that over confidence will result in reduced turnout from those who are supposed to make the wave happen.
8
All I know is, that whether we like it or not, for good or for evil, the fate of the Republic is the balance
My trepidation as to what may or may not happen tomorrow is because, far too often, in the past 30 years, the forces of evil have triumphed on a consistent basis.
The moments of respite and egalitarian accomplishments that we saw with President Obama is all mostly a pile of ashes now.
And, I can easily imagine what will happen if those forces evil are rewarded instead.
11
everyone should play the game gerrymander. it's a joke to assume we have representation.
5
Our system is based on a blatant fallacy—that decent people will always outnumber INdecent people.
That is transparently NOT the case in America.
9
This is what haunts me the most about the upcoming election. The media is going all out against President Trump with tirades in unison even if such partisan stance is illegal in the eyes of FCC and unfair in the eyes of the citizenry.
Last night’s CBS news magazine "60 Minutes," once a respected, sedate, pedantic and sometimes brilliantly investigative production, was focused on trashing Trump. Billionaire Bloomberg, filled with rage and jealousy that a fellow tycoon from NYC became the POTUS and he would never ever receive that honor, is determined to denigrate Mr. Trump and bought airtime on "60 Minutes" to encourage voters to choose Democratic candidates. The revenge could be seen in his eyes and the images in the ad and the jealousy reverberated in his tone and sound.
Mr. Bloomberg came across as a pathetic sore loser but the bigger long-term looser will be the CBS show itself.
The article points to a close race based on polling data. I hope the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016. Those of us who have common sense and want a leader who remembers his promises and delivers them, will choose governors, congressmen and senators who will steadfastly support the President for the next six years.
9
@Appu Nair There is a concept called “Ockham’s Razor” in philosophy that you seem unfamiliar with. It is the idea that the simplest, least-convoluted explanation of an observation tends to be the accurate one.
You observe that a wide variety of media sources have negative reports about Trump, including some that historically have been tame and mild in politics. You conclude that they are all engaged in a massive conspiracy to discredit your beloved Trump.
But Ockham’s Razor suggests the simplest explanation is the most likely the correct one: your beloved is a liar and a crook, and such a wide variety of media outlets are reporting negatively because that’s the truth.
P.S. the FCC cannot punish media outlets for things it perceived as biased. There is no such law, and it would be against the First Amendment. It is disturbing you have an instinctive, normalized embrace of authoritarianism and so little sense of the freedom of the prrss.
25
@Appu Nair
So the President keeps his promises? What about that health care that he was going to replace the ACA with? It was going to be bigger and way better than ACA.
Why is it the only major piece of legislation he has signed into law was the tax cuts for corporations and the very wealthy.
If our immigration laws are so terrible why hasn't Trump changed those laws by working with congress? The republicans have had the majority for two years they could have passed anything they wanted.
Yeah I think it's a myth that Trump keeps his promises. He is all smoke and mirrors. A crook who is surrounded by crooks.
8
I truly appreciate the reporting Nate Cohn is doing on this quantum election, where both parties are poised for a landslide at the same time, just depending on who you listen to.
Even the rest of the NYT is so pro Democratic Party is hard to tell if their articles are reporting, or DNC advertising.
I do believe this is a toss up, with the most vocal red or blue already set to vote their favorite color; and, depending on the news outlet, either blue or red is poised to win all of the undecideds, and the DEMS are for some reason, sure that Latins will vote for them in droves.
What the DNC needs to be aware of, is the insane amount of people who will vote GOP, but are unwilling to say it out loud for fear of being labeled a social pariah.
Latins have not forgotten that Obama had 8 years in power, some of those with the DEMS controlling both houses, and still nothing changed on immigration, instead he became the deporter in chief.
General folk like me cannot forget the penalties we were charged thanks to Obama care; and that Trump removed that penalty so my wife and I did not owe the IRS an extra $1600 in taxes this past tax cycle.
Just like the video showed, polling info is all based on data on hand. And people who will quietly go and vote Red will not tell you that in a phone survey or house visit.
That should send the DNC into a panic.
Maybe next time their plan as a party will be how to fix things, not how to stop one single person.
5
It’s a sad day, when your rights can be bought for $1600. Though likely you agree with most of his policies and are just saying that. I would gladly pay double in taxes, not to lose access to healthcare, in particular reproductive care. Plus the loss in lgbt rights, voting rights and even funding. If the citizen question goes thru, many places will lose funding. If only me spending $1600 could give me all the rights lost under trump, I would gladly pay it.
14
As someone who wants the United States to stand strong against the Russians and the many other autocracies and theocracies around the world who would like us to join the world of Godfather governments, I fear that even the best of outcomes (a blue wave landslide) will leave us a degraded democracy in the eyes of the world. This is all so very shameful.
7
Can't say it wsan't fun and envigorating for awhile but fullfilled my civic duty back on 6-October and that now seems like eons ago.
The present day landscape has become so perfectly dreadful between the almost laughable threats of migrant "invasions," 3rd world pipe bomb threats in support of a seated U.S. President and then the hate fueled, mass murder during a religious observance in Pittsburgh.
All you polite folks call it what you might but I'm going with Domestic Terrorism and the person coincidentally with the largest platform continues to lie, misinform and cajole what now might be cosidered a brain dead public.
8
We are not in for a long election nite. We are in for a long election WEEK.
9
It might even be months. The disenfranchised native Americans in sd, may make the difference in who controls the senate. The address issue may go all the way to the sc.
4
I have a lot of respect for Nate Cohn. Let me summarize this from my personal perspective.
1. By our best most scientific tests, a lot of races are simply too close to call.
2. It's worse than that. We don't even know what factors will shift the race what way. Justice Kavanaugh was accused by women of sexual improprieties, several of whom had made accusations before he was even nominated? And he turns unprofessionally belligerent? In the ancient days, Republicans would lose votes for this. Today it might energize Republicans. Most Alabama Republicans voted in the primary and the general election for Judge Roy Moore, who not only had women complaining that he had molested them when they were children, but also had been expelled from the ALABAMA (!) supreme court for illegal unprofessional behavior. Hey, I've read that many Republican women consider such a man a hero. We don't even know anymore what the effect of election day weather will be.
So, take my advise. VOTE (specifically, vote against villains). Then go to bed early Tuesday night and find out the results the next morning.
9
Based on this article, can anyone please tell me what purpose all the NYT/Sienna polling that has taken place, has served? The closest I can come up is Shakespeare's "Much ado about nothing".
4
Waiting to exhale.
9
You know what worries me the most in Georgia? It supposed to rain heavily tomorrow.
Suck it up, Democrats. Bring an umbrella, but don’t use that as an excuse to not vote.
10
Considering what happened in the 2016 election, we can't and shouldn't depend on polls.
The only way to ensure a win is to vote. Don't assume that because your candidates are ahead in the polls they're going to win. Don't think, "my vote doesn't count". This year especially, your vote counts.
We have to turn out in record numbers and vote out the Republican candidates before they further damage our democratic institutions.
No excuses- VOTE!
16
The big question is do the gerrymandering and the supress the vote will impeded the result of the elections? As we know the Republican supress the vote by targeting minorities, and this is hurting the Democratic Party. The gerrymandering is another factor playing against the Democrat. The British magazine The Economist used a "generic ballot" polling with other datas. They found out that despite the fact that the Democrat have a likelihood of 99,9% of winning the popular vote, the Republicans still have a 30% of winning the House. The Democrats will need to win 53,5% of the vote cast for Democrats and Republicans to have a 50/50 chance to win the House.(The Minority Majority, The Economist, July 14th,2018) In other words the Democrats need at least 7% more vote than the Republicans to have a chance of winning.
4
Nate is right to emphasize turnout as a deciding factor in 2018. Turnout decided 2016 as many voters who turned out for Obama chose not to do so for Hillary.
The polling models have great difficulty forecasting turnout, especially in constituencies with historic low turnout. In the close races we are seeing a 2-3% (well within normal polling error) swing either way will be the difference between a blue wave or a red tide.
I am reminded of the adage that the flapping wings of a butterfly in the right time and place can trigger a hurricane.
6
We need a district by district battle for House control that lasts for weeks. The voices of the People must be heard.
4
its close because money is invested everywhere necessary, by super pacs and parties, but also UNLIMITED sums from unions, individuals and corporations in "outside spending" (dark money) that are not disclosed, because they are "not coordinated with the candidates/parties".
any chance to tip the outcome is explored and exploited.
1
It seems like every election I can remember since the turn of the century has been too close to call. What makes everything such a 50/50 choice. How is this statistically possible? It would seem that a 50/50 dead heat might happen once in a while, but practically every time? The only thing I can think of is that the media wants every election to be a horse race to drive up suspense and ratings.
1
@Jeffrey Bank The last time a US presidential election was decided by more than 10 points is 1984, so yeah, elections have gotten effectively closer. It's not just the media trying to make a horse race out of it.
1
@Jeffrey Bank I imagine if the elections weren’t close the losing party would have a huge incentive to change their platform (or marketing) to attract more voters. Because what’s the point of a platform if you would never win with it? So both parties are continually adjusting their platforms to stay around 50/50. Just look at how much the GOP has changed on trade issues.
1
When elections are THIS close and when the stakes are THIS high and the counting process is THIS vulnerable to both hacking and malicious programming . . . is our nation not set up on the tee for the taking?
This is precisely the kind of election that riggers dream about. And yet we've taken hardly any precautions to protect it from "meddling." Sure we made some noise about beefing up cybersecurity but none of that would stand in the way of operatives with access to the profoundly partisan outfits that we've entrusted with counting our votes.
If past is prologue, this ultra-close and ultra-critical election will go the way such have always gone in the computerized voting era - and on Wednesday, Nate, you and your very astute colleagues will be offering up explanations for yet another far-right triumph.
Perhaps this time you will think to ask whether there is any possibility that votes counted by the hundreds of millions --here and yon, but all in the pitch-dark of cyberspace -- could just possibly have been miscounted ("ooops!"), and think to demand some actual PROOF (as in the recounting of voter-marked ballots and/or examination of memory cards and code) that the count was honest and accurate.
11
@Jonathan Simon I am in firm agreement! These articles always read as though ballots are objectively counted and there are no shenanigans, when we have ample evidence to the contrary. Hacking aside, look at Brian Kemp in Georgia and Kris Kobach, (architect of the whole scheme of voter suppression!), in Kansas! We have to stop being so naive and start overhauling the whole system. This situation is really a corrupt GOP's dream, and I actually think there's far more hype about Republicans' leads than reflects the reality....
1
Hopefully droves of people will vote and reject Trump and his Republican cronies. Through the ballot box our message will be that Americans are sick and tired of lies, deceit, hate speech, fear mongering, gun violence, anti-immigrant speech and rhetoric that has torn our country further apart.
I believe we shall overcome.
31
@patrick ryan Yes, as long as our ballots are counted accurately and honestly!
4
Don't just vote. Vote your kiester off.
9
It frustrates me that the majority of races seem to be as close as they are. I would accept that with a 'normal' president. But given that Trump is such a poor leader and horrible human, I would expect most of the races to be landslides.
25
@JayR As would anyone in their right mind. I am extremely suspicious of serious corruption that will be playing a role. Look at all the examples of voter suppression, switched votes on the computers in Texas, not to mention last-minute hacking that can take place within the space of 10 minutes. And no unified way of making sure there is an accurate record of the majority of any/all votes that are not done with a paper trail. We have some serious problems here that ought to have been addressed in 2016, if not long before then.
3
America is in our thoughts tonight.
25
Very scared for the future of our country. Please vote blue tomorrow!!
30
Shame on NBC for running a Republican smear campaign ad aimed to scare little old ladies about immigrants. This little old lady won’t be watching NBC news for a long time. My grandparents were immigrants.
24
Understanding that this isn’t helpful and has been said countless times already, by people much cleverer, better-informed and more erudite than me:
It’s terrible, sad and still somehow unbelievable that there are enough Americans who see merit in Donald Trump; how he “works”; the people with whom he surrounds himself; and his “goals” that this election is AT ALL close, let alone too close to call. The real picture of who and what Trump and most of the Republican Party are is so clear to see (with open eyes and some common sense) that it’s hardly a wonder when those of us who see it don’t understand and can’t agree with those who won’t.
17
There needs to be a national conversation about the fundamental flaws in America’s democracy. Right now we are under minority rule. Republicans hold the House despite earning fewer aggregate votes. Republicans hold the Senate even though Democrats represent millions more citizens. A Republican holds the White House despite losing the popular vote by over 3 million ballots.
Take the example of the House: The median projection is that Democrats will gain 39 seats. If a D+8 generic Congressional ballot translated into actual seats won the Democrats’ gain would be closer to 59 seats. In other words, due to systemic flaws and anti-democratic tactics, the Republican Party gets to put their thumb on the scale. They can win with 50%+1 vote whereas Democrats effectively need 53% or more of the vote to win.
The extreme partisan gerrymandering that has rigged the House, not to mention state legislatures across the country, can be remedied to some degree if Democrats make and hold electoral gains at the state level after the 2020 census. The Senate and Electoral College are foundational Constitutional problems. The majority must have majority representation. Anything less breeds resentment and division and, eventually, more severe conflict. Our basic institutions of government need to change so that they continue to respect the rights of the voting minority but do not actually enable minority rule.
52
Tell me something I don’t know. Or rather, tell me why the last three Democratic presidents took absolutely no steps to remedy this situation. If you don’t fight, you can’t win.
4
We must fix the system to save our country. Even with liberal voter suppression, Democratic party candidates are consistently winning the popular vote. However, the Republican minority continue to control the government.
What will be the fate of what appears to be democracy which is in reality controlled by the 1%?
It can't be good. And we can only save ourselves by voting for honest politicians who promise to work towards the repeal of Citizens United.
33
The white GOP is in the final twisting throes of irrelevance in the governance of the United States. All the suppression - gerrymandering and deceitful political maneuvering will eventually be exhausted. There will not be enough flags in which to wrap themselves.
It's all going to be over sooner or later, but the smiling real estate salesman will be counting his money with Scrooge McDuck in the basement of his tower.
King Louis XIV was a Republican of the highest order.
9
@Dry Socket All GOP are not white, geez
2
In spite of the loud Lindsey Graham/Trump rhetoric about the Kavanaugh selection to the Supreme Court, and how this might affect the election, let’s not forget that either she or he lied. She was 100% sure that he assaulted her while he was drunken and he was completely positive that he didn’t do it. So, either she lied or he lied. We may never be able to determine the truth, and a person is innocent until proven guilty. But who lied? And who had the greatest motive for lying? Would it make sense for her to lie, to not admit that she could be mistaken after so many years? I think that if she wasn’t sure, she wouldn’t have gotten involved. And he really had sound reasons for lying because either admitting that he couldn’t recall or that he did but that was a horrible mistake from when he was a teenager...none of these answers would have been accepted, and his whole life’s ambition and service to the country would be trashed. So, we may never know. I wonder what Lindsey Graham’s answer would be to who does he think lied.
6
And what are the Russians doing to the ballot boxes and voter registration rolls THIS time?
7
Yes, the Democrats willl take the House IF Republican engineered voter suppression laws and other dirty tricks don't defeat the clear choice of the majority of voters. That's the main source of error in these polls but Nate doesn't even mention that factor. i don't understand why.
18
@archer717 I don't understand why either. If more attention were devoted to that topic, people would be living in a very different USA right now.
1
Why all this weeping and gnashing of teeth? The election will be held, results announced and business as usual will resume, regardless of outcome. Carry on!
7
All this speculation...
Yet the reader searches in vain for ANY summary of the very real issues so clearly outlined by the positions of of the Democrats and "Republicans."
WHY, Times?
Issues, such as gun control and gun violence and ongoing right-wing threats of violence against political "enemies," windfall tax deals for the .001% while the 99% see earning stagnate or fall, affordable healthcare, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, the war on the environment and clean air and water, climate change, crumbling infrastructure, unprecedented corruption at the highest levels of the "administration," election tampering, collusion with Russia and murderous despotisms like the Saudis... The list goes on and on.
WHY aren't these real issues front and center? Those are the real issues and positions on them should be guiding our votes.
13
@NYer
I agree, but sadly, I think the politicians have learned they can win by attacking the other candidate. No sense going on record as someone who will do this or that, or standing for anything but an extremely generic issue, like “keeping criminals out of the country.”
Who actually WANTS criminals in the country? One party would have you believe the other does, by distorting the message.
These days it is all about getting the voters to fear or hate the opponent, rather than a clear stand on issues. And then, if elected, they follow party lines because words like consensus and compromise have left the dictionary.
Trump is ringleader of this distorted message, the hatred, the fear, because he has nothing else.
2
If you're reading this paper, chances are you've already voted or plan to do so tomorrow, so I won't waste my time telling you to vote.
But, please, please, please call your friends and family and make sure they vote. Maybe even talk to strangers(!)
Every voice helps.
6
I’ve learned a lot from the November 2016 election outcome. I’m storing pints of ice cream, bottles of bourbon and queuing videos of dogs welcoming home service men and women to help me deal with a red outcome.
6
@Molly Bloom the returning military voted RED
1
@Bar tennant No, they don't. The military is not monolithic, not even remotely so.
2
"The first would be interpreted as a repudiation of Donald J. Trump, the second as another example of his political resilience."
Have to disagree with you right there. The first would be a reaffirmation that the majority of Americans stand against racism, nationalism, white supremacy, abusing the environment and political disengagement.
The second would be a reaffirmation that there are more Americans willing to make decisions based on their fear of the 'other' than there are those who will stand up for what is morally right.
If the 'blue wave' happens it will change how we see our fellow citizens. It is as crucial as that.
13
@Diana In my opinion, if Trump is repudiated here, it is more a reflection of corruption working at the polls than anything else. That is not to say he and his cohorts don't have supporters--and many at that--but they are NOT the majority, and I am convinced are also not the voting majority, (nor were they last time, either, as evidenced by Hillary Clinton's popular lead of 3 million.) So corruption will rule the day, and we will rue it, if we don't challenge it!!!
1
This is what hurts and haunts me the most. I am a senior citizen and have lived in 7 different states, served with people from all 50 states and worked with people across educational and income status. I would tell anyone that at 95% of Americans are very decent and compassionate people. The system is designed to manipulate us into national outcomes that could not begin to impact the majority of lives, no matter which of the 2 major parties is in control.The Founders could never have foreseen these obstacles. Rather, they warned of the dangers of the 'Republic, if you can keep it." The big money interests have all but insured that the "people" will never be heard again. We have neither a true democracy ( one man one vote), nor the Parliamentary design that tends to force compromise for confidence. I see no way out of this morass. Other than another major calamity which kills and punishes millions needlessly. 'Muddling through" is already hurting so many Americans' health and happiness, whether due to lack of health care, gun control or education, we are no longer a beacon of hope.
33
Thank you for highlighting the impact of our broken system on the majority of people's lives. We routinely deal with challenges and conditions people in more civilized countries would never allow. All the wasted talents and broken sprits haunt me. I wish any of this meant anything to a single Republican.
9
Gerrymandering, voter suppression, campaign lies. and so much more for the Democrats to deal with in 2018 and I think we're doing great! The cheating that goes on behind the scenes makes the Democratic gains this year so much more rewarding. I live in NY-19, Faso won in 2016 by 8%, that's been erased and we lean bit left right now with Antonio Delgado, a suburb candidate, leading us to a win.
18
I have never understood the high % of people day before an election that claim they are undecided. Unless there are candidates you like equally, or dislike equally. But it seems every election it always pops up. I really believe people just don't want to say so they claim undecided. Well this horse race will be over soon and we all will see what the voters Say.
12
@frank monaco Anyone who claims they are "undecided" is a vote for the candidate that Trump endorsed. They are just too ashamed to admit it publicly.
9
Most guess for the compelling reasons for a possible Dem defeat or slim victory has been since January that gerrymandering and voter suppression trump other reasons people enjoy speculating about, especially cable news if one solely considers TV and not other media.
3
Just remember this, Good People of America and the world - no matter what the outcome of tomorrow's election WE THE PEOPLE will survive.
WE are America! Together we can overcome any obstruction and come out better. WE have already made a giant leap towards a better democracy by Socially Conscious Women stepping up to take one half the power to work with Socially Conscious men to restore/preserve/improve true democracy in OUR United States of America.
OUR story begins now.
8
Thought Trumps approvals ratings were at all time high - so how is the "Disdain" voicing itself. How do you measure and contrast these two vastly different statements?
3
After Trump won his campaign manager was asked why Trump did not spend time and resources in California which provided the popular vote majority for the US. His answer, which many in the media were upset with, was why waste time and money campaigning where they couldn't win. Now, Nancy Pelozi has said that Democrats are concentrating their resources in races they may win. I wonder why the media is not similarly unhappy with the new Democrat strategy.
3
A propos of elections, I cannot understand how it is tolerated that someone who oversees the electoral process can also be a candidate. If this isn't conflict of interest, I don't know what the phrase means.. You can't have a candidate or someone with a definite interest in the results be in charge of it. Like the florida Secretary of State in the Bush-Gore election. Not to mention the situation in Georgia.
One, the running of elections should be in the hands of a non-partisan board.
Second, if it is not possible, Secretaries of State who run for office should recuse themselves once they declare for office.
This is an electoral scandal of major proportions..
44
@Frank Casa So incredibly true!
1
Should be in an ideal world where people respect each other and everyone votes? Maybe. But we live in a land of barbarians where might makes right and money is the only thing that talks. God help us all.
Finally, this observation from NYT:
“even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could yield significantly different results, with very different consequences for the government and the future of the Trump presidency.”
Truer words were never spoken.
3
Most people agree that bipartisanship is best; that our laws should give due consideration to both sides of the spectrum.
Repubs have used their current power to completely shut the Dems out of the process. Important legislation is drafted behind closed doors and then rushed to a vote without proper debate.
Historically, when Dems hold power, they follow the process. They accept amendments from the other side, and allow open public debate. They also promote voting rights and citizen participation.
Thus, if you're in the middle of the road, if you favor moderation and fairness, the only choice at this time is to vote Democratic.
34
@Jomo
That's an awfully rosy view of Democrats that doesn't match with what I see as an unaffiliated voter. What does "follow the process" mean? Democrats somehow play by the rules and Republicans don't? That's pure baloney.
The ACA went through many closed door negotiations with rushing to cut out Republicans (From an AP article in Jan 2010: "House and Senate Democrats intend to bypass traditional procedures when they negotiate a final compromise on health care legislation, officials said Monday, a move that will exclude Republican lawmakers and reduce their ability to delay or force politically troubling votes in both houses."). (Note: I'm opposed to the ACA because I'm in favor of a Canada-style single payer system). The GOP rightly criticized the process at the time just as Democrats rightly criticized what Republicans did with the tax cuts (which I'm opposed to).
I voted nearly straight ticket Democrat but that's mainly to try and counter an abusive administration. I am one of those middle of the road voters who is appalled at some of what happens on both sides of the spectrum, which is why I don't have a party affiliation.
1
But if you want to be on the side of a winner you have to chose Republicans. They want it bad enough to fight for it.
1
One prediction I will make.....
If the Dems take over the House, Trump will immediately go on a Tweetrant wailing that the election was rigged, Dems cheated, it is fake news, etc.
I doubt if he is capable of accepting any outcome other than keeping both houses, and people throwing bouquets at the White House fence to celebrate him.
Any result showing a gain by the other party that may be a referendum on him will result in others getting thrown under the bus to deflect any blame on his part.
22
@Steven Loprete He rants about everything...who is influenced by his crazy tweets and campaign shows, his base?
4
@CMW
Likely only his base and Fox. But he loves to continue to drive a wedge into the public. His base against everyone else. We surely do not need more us vs. them, or more reasons for his base to clamor to his pep rallies.
Your 2 bullet points on the homepage linked to this article fail to mention a third factor that could affect the outcome: hacking. The article itself fails to mention it, too. When the Republican candidate in 2016 said "The election is rigged" it was an admission not an accusation: the mechanism that provided 77,744 votes to tip the electoral college were already in place, just as "Russia if you're listening" referred to what had already happened. And since 2016 - indeed since the hanging chads of 2000 - has anything been done to prevent the hacking of voting machines and tallying software? Lovers of democracy hope so, but that hope may be in vain.
16
@seriousreader I keep posting responses on this very same topic, highlighting also voter suppression and gerrymandering, and even so, it seems that with the exception of a few articles on these topics, the NYT plays an oblivious ostrich in the sand kind of role in their reporting on said topics in their general articles. It's very strange, as I think the topic of corruption at the polls is very real, long overdue, and in dire need of remedy on a national scale. I hope if there is a change from red to blue that this is one of the issues that are rectified ASAP.
Many people for some reason or other do not vote. They think that their vote does not matter. This is farthest from the truth. Every vote counts.
Our Democracy is not perfect. It has many structural imperfections. On top of that, there are many means such as gerrymandering, voter roll purging, voter suppression, acceptable voter ID etc are being used by the ruling party to obstruct and discourage voting. Fear mongering at the highest level has divided the country.
This makes it even more important than ever for everyone to vote to bring about the changes that you desire.
Please VOTE on November 6, 2018.
12
You are right that voter apathy is a huge problem. Something that I think might help, especially for national level elections, would be to withhold results until all polls in the country have closed. Knowing the outcomes before we (western time zones) even go to the polls is not very motivating. If our presidential candidate has already "lost," or a chamber has already swung...it is easier to have a "why go?" attitude. When the president has already been "called,"it is hard to convince your kid that all votes matter...
The complexity of the Electoral College and the variation in how states participate is also confusing. And is the EC necessary?
People will "argue" to defend calling the election as early as possible and to justify the EC...but, I really think they are factors that discourage participation.
1
@Neil Dunford
Withholding results until all polls close is a very valid point. Who is going to make this rule and whether too eager and rating driven news media is going to follow this rule is the questions.
Electoral College is one of the major Structural imperfections and most undemocratic. Every democratic country goes by the popular vote. We definitely need to get rid of this and also the influence of big money in politics by reverting the "Citizens United" ruling.
There will be a reversal of 2016 where independents, moderate Republicans and some Democrats held their nose and voted for Trump...after two years of his Presidency these same voters will in my estimation for the most part vote Democrat...is it going to be a Republican blood bath...a resounding yes.
9
Republicans will cut back Medicare to pay for the tax break to the rich. Just watch.
16
@Will Hogan; Not if the Democrats take back the House, they won't.
4
I would like to understand if your prediction models account for voter suppression and gerrymandering which we have seen in several key states.
6
Yes, Nate, "the fate of [GOP control of the House] Chamber is not a foregone conclusion."... but neither is the outcome in the Senate.
That's what is meant when 538 says that the Democrats have a 6 in 7 chance of winning the House- and the GOP has a 6 in 7 chance of winning the Senate.
That's the meaning of "probability," after all - not "foregone."
The cautionary note is helpful if it induces people to vote.. but not if it freezes them.
A systemic polling error would be the only thing that could tilt the outcomes in the House and Senate - that is, some dependency tying together outcomes in various districts and States, respectively.
My view: A systemic polling error is more likely to favor Democrats than Republicans - because the biggest demographic shift in this election appears to be the rate at which Millennial's vote. The early word on early voter is that Millennial voting is running high. Millenial's love the Democrats.
So, good people, be of stout heart and get out and vote. You might aid a Democratic sweep if you do so.
Be the Blue Wave.
13
Liberals, chill out.
I'm a Trump supporter, but even I can see that it's very, very likely that Democrats will win the House.
This not like the a single presidential election that can defy odds. This is a series of elections that would require an improbable number of events to defy the odds. Moreover, a House victory for Democrats would fit with recent historical precedent.
A Democratic House isn’t guaranteed, but it’s a very good bet.
My hope is that once the Democrats win the House, they will dial back their own fears of impotence and their endless scaremongering, working together with the Senate and President to pass legislation.
Of course, a hope isn’t actually an expectation. My expectation is that they will use their new power to block and undermine Republicans in every possible way – sort of like what Republicans did to Obama.
For now, however, you may not want to pop champagne corks. just yet. But you can at least have a cold beer from the refrigerator and prepare for a somewhat happy Tuesday.
5
Democrats have always been willing to work together across the aisle. It was McConnell and the Republicans who refused to support anything that Obama proposed simply because a black man proposed it.
Whether the two parties work together with a democrat controlled house is solely up to the GOP. Based on history I have no hope that will happen.
There will be no progress in this country untill 2021 when both the Senate and the White House will be cleared out of Republicans
1
November 6,2018, tomorrow is the day for those American citizens to have there voice heard, irregardless of which party (person) you support, if you are a current registered voter and haven't already voted early or thru the mail, then you need to VOTE. I have always told my brother, to whom I don't think has ever registered to vote not to complain after the fact if he didn't care enough to have his voice heard by voting. These are crazy times for sure, and we are noticing that the numbers for a midterm election are higher than normal, that should tell us how important tomorrow really is. America is a great country and has always has been for those of us who call her home. Vote Vote Vote Vote!!
5
@Ricky
Well Ricky, I agree America is a great country, and I agree that more people should vote.
But remember also, America is weakened by voters who are not willing to figure out what is fact and what is likely exaggeration, voters who vote on emotion but not on analysis of the issues. These voters could figure some simple stuff out if they wanted to. Just do some very simple math. For example, to fix a budget deficit of $900 billion a year, the only federal spending cuts that would be big enough are the military, medicare, and social security. One or more of these will get cut bigtime. Which will it be?
8
Yesterday, NBC stooped to the gutter to run a false Trump anti-immigration ad. They lowered the NBC network to Breitbart and Alex Jones' level with a marquee ad spot during the most popular football game two days before one of the highest important votes of our time.
By choosing advertising revenue over facts and over morality, NBC joined the threat to our democracy.
Lies are not free speech.
61
@common sense advocate Unfortunately everyone is free to like and choose deceitful speech. But it is despicable for the news to get paid and accept dollars to do so.
2
@common sense advocate Thank you. I had coffee squirt out of my nose.
1
“NBC to Stop Running Trump Immigration Ad Rejected by CNN as Racist” is this morning’s NYT’s headline.
6
A great essay on polling, Mr. Cohn, but polling doesn’t—and isn’t—going to determine the outcome of the midterms.
I happen to think that voter disaffection with the incumbent president is going to bring out a citizenry that’s committed to honest, honorable, moral governance than anyone thought.
9
After your 2016 polling predictions, please refrain from stating anything until all the votes are counted. I want a Blue Wave also, but as with watching someone pitch a no hitter, I keep my eyes open and my mouth shut. :)
18
At the very least, I hope the students at Stoneman Douglas have motivated enough young people to get out and vote.
37
Thanks for all the pro Trump/GOP coverage. Really appreciate all those articles about the Democrats - other than Beto or Stacey!
Having said that, do not trust the polls! 2016 was such a disaster vis a vis polling and I see no reason to assume they have their act together today.
The only thing Americans need to know is that the GOP/Trump voter votes. They get on line, wait in line and vote GOP no matter the name on the ballot.
The Democrats hem and haw and think about it. The weather and kids get in the way. Old resentments still percolate.
So maybe just for once Democrats should put their rain coat on and go out and vote. Bring the umbrella, kids, dog and VOTE. The name does not matter. Vote like a Republican only Blue. It works.
The Democrats face a litany of obstacles from gerrymandering, voter suppression and sheer volume of local, state and federal seats needed to turn Blue to begin to address the imbalance of power. As a life long Democrat, I truly believe that the best policies that our government enact are those where there has been bipartisan work behind them. We have to be in it to win it.
We need Democratic bodies at every level of government.
It will take years of elections to realign and it begins tomorrow.
Please VOTE.
24
In reply to Elizabeth Roslyn NY
Good realistic advice! An excellent assessment!
6
How can a voter be undecided at this point in the election?
26
@John M They're not undecided--they just don't want to talk about their preferences. My husband and I ran political campaigns people running for local office (many many years ago). When we did polling on behalf of our candidates we always assumed that the 'undecideds" actually were going to vote for the opposition and we made sure that those who said they would vote for our candidates actually went to the polls and voted. I was not surprised that Trump won in 2016--Hillary ran a very poor campaign and there were lots of people voted for Trump because they wanted him to shake things up. I think that the immigration issue--the caravan--may really help Trump. There are many people who have concerns about immigrants apart from Trumps' mean-spirited lies about the caravan and wonder how we will accommodate these folks if they come here. And there is the question of open borders. It's not that the Democrats or for that matter anybody else, favor open borders, it'should we have them in the first place when there are so many underserved American citizens and undocumented people living here already. I'm not suggesting that we deport those already here
or that we shouldn't admit those asking for asylum from Central America. I am saying that we need to craft a comprehensive immigration policy that addresses these concerns.
2
interestingly the Dems cry wolf constantly, alienating many of us progressives. Including regarding Judge Kavanaugh who is such a clear choice for the Supreme Court with an unblemished record. Why don't the Dems or the media talk about the allegations that have been recanted? Where is the intellectual honesty?
The outcry over "net neutral" was such a farce. The internet still works fine, and worked fine before the net neutral rules were in place three years ago.
The Dems fear mongering is laughable, as much as the Republicans.
4
@Joe yohka
See my earlier response on this topic..
While we are tossing the term "Honesty" around: Who recanted accusations exactly? What were they?
And seriously, any Republican that uses the term honesty right now should have to hang their head in shame for their leader alone let alone the rest of the party actions.
8
@Joe yohka You might find somebody who has no trouble lying under oath a "clear choice" for the Supreme Court of the land, but some of us expect more. You simply don't care that he lied through his teeth while under oath?
2
As a moderate liberal citizen, I’m terrified of the prospect of a Democrat Party win. The party has shifted so far to the left that they’re unrecognizable. Since when does democracy mean ‘sanctuary’ for hundreds of thousands of foreign nationals who’ve decided, with an air of entitlement, that our sovereignty and laws don’t apply to them? And there are thousands more just like them on the way, welcomed by the Dems with open arms. You can therefore kiss the notion of universal healthcare and social security goodbye...neither sustainable nor affordable while our nation is playing host to an endless...and I do mean ENDLESS... stream of potential welfare recipients.
6
I recall an old episode of the Addams family, where Gomez Addams supported a candidate in a local election. Naturally, because he and his family were so strange, the candidate didn't want his support. At one point, the candidate said to Gomez "computers project that I'm going to lose." I still remember Mr. Addam's response 40 years later:
"Nonsense. Computers can't vote."
7
Oddly enough, I think that one of the challenges we face is the sophistication of polling these days. They enable candidates and parties to whittle away at the margin. The result is an election that simply hinges on person x in county y of state z. When elections are this close, the outcome is suspect, and can go too easily towards the person who managed the voter suppression effort most effectively.
6
Polls are useless predictors when there’s a eight or nine percent margin of error. Read the fine print. Please, ignore these polls and vote. I wonder how many Hillary supporters stayed home in 2016 because polls and the media predicted an 85% chance she would win.
This poll shows my district VA 10 +9 points in the Democrat column. The republican incumbent has been doing a high wire act for 2 years trying to vote as ordered by McConnell in a district that heavily went for Hillary. The district has seen rapid demographic change with an influx of highly educated people, including many immigrants.
7
Polls do not apply in this election, as they haven't since pollsters started relying on the internet because site users are usually demographically limited. Land line phones are very limited in this I phone and other cell phone crazed world and many people, like me, do not answer their landlines to unknown callers.
I really don't understand why media spend so much time and so many resources trying to "outguess" voters. They should be spending their time investigating local, national and international intentions to suppress "undesirable" voters, jimmy rig voter districts and steal from OUR governments.
Perhaps once WE THE PEOPLE take back OUR governments at every level tomorrow they will start working for 99.9% of us to find and clean out corruption in every place in OUR United States of America.
NOW is the time. It's YOUR country, too, Good People of the media. Please help us save it from the Robber Barons - before they can destroy it again.
25
When the democrats were in power things weren’t better. The rich were rich then too. The only thing I see happening is government workers get paid more. San Francisco hired six people to clean the human waste from the homeless. With benefits they get paid 180 thousand a year each. This is by law they tell us. Who makes that kind of law? That will be the left. The states with the most debt are the blue states. IL can’t pay their over priced pensions. When the democrats get control they will find away of having all the states that are fiscally responsible pay for IL, New York, and CA debt. Pay for the government workers and getting their cooperation. It’s the only thing I see the democrats doing
9
@Jim You are wrong Jimbo , as it turns out, it is red states that are overwhelmingly the Welfare Queen States. Yes, that's right. Red States—the ones governed by folks who think government is too big and spending needs to be cut—are a net drain on the economy, taking in more federal spending than they pay out in federal taxes. They talk a good game, but stick Blue States with the bill.
8
Your comment is wildly misinformed on many levels. I realize you’re not likely to be shaken from your views but for starters, please look at taxfoundation.org, among many other credible sources, for a look at the states most heavily depending on federal support. Mississippi and Alabama top the list. Louisiana, Tennessee and Kentucky are close behind. New York and California, two of the prime engines of our national economy, are nowhere near the top. Just because you say up is down does not make it so.
5
A very tired argument with little supporting facts and certainly no evidence of claims re: San Francisco
3
"The first would be interpreted as a repudiation of Donald J. Trump, the second as another example of his political resilience."
Actually, it's neither. It's an example of the fact that this administration has unleashed war inside every American household. While we've been busy trying to anticipate the external and economic threats, we've ignored something insidious that has poisoned us all.
War has come inside our home. And our town hall meetings. And our neighborhood potlucks. And our thanksgiving table.
I am 50 years old. I have been in a family of mixed political affiliations my entire life. I have never seen the degree of vitriol in once close relationships to the degree that I have now. I myself lost two long term friends.
It turns out that once seen, a person's rotten character can't be unseen. When our President calls upon you to stand on the necks of others for your own benefit, and you respond accordingly, you've revealed your lack of morals. It's hard to sustain a friendship after you've lost respect for another's character, logic, and morals. It's hard to ignore that your loved one is capable of cruelty.
Here is your next headline: "Not a Family Untouched. How Trump's Politics Have Divided a Nation".
The body of the article will be filled with the debris of all the broken relationships that Trump has wrought on our once united country. Try and find a person untouched by all this. Try.
THIS that we are living in now is the stuff of nightmares.
#vote
103
@GWE:
Excellent point and something many are painfully aware of, but not something that has been written about as much as it should be. Sure, there's reference made to intra-family disputes over Thump, but I think it's the tip of an iceberg.
The details of family and friend relationships that have been injured or destroyed is going to make quite a book or even movie once somebody really starts interviewing families.
3
True, but even now the majority of eligible voters will not vote. I know the system is filled with hurdles to prevent working people from voting, but numbers like this are astounding and only occur in this country. Call them discouraged, or ignorant, or apathetic, or suicidal, they remain the largest “voting block” in America and they are sending the message that they just don’t care about anything. How do you motivate people who are dead inside? How do you revive people and ask them to test the waters in an age of voter suppression and fascist violence?
In all seriousness, I think we should pay people to vote. If they don’t care about anything else, they will still care about money.
I hope this is wrong. It is pretty hard to vote more than the average Republican so I am hoping that the turn out boost is most indies and Democrats tried Trump his drama. Here in Tennesse, I see about as many yard signs on both sides but have yet to see a Blackburn bumper sticker. What I want is a monster blue wave to surf us into the Senate.
14
Even if you are happy with your Republican Congressman, you need to vote blue to keep Republicans from continuing to have control over both houses of Congress and the White House.
The very first vote they will take will be to determine leadership positions. That vote will decide who will control the committee chairs, the flow of legislation and more. Our government works best when there is balance between Congress and the White House.
Republicans in charge of both houses is a serious threat to Medicare and Social Security as we know them. The Republicans have promised to revisit health care with the intention of removing many protections that we depend on. Preconditions and Medicare are just two. There are more.
We also need to send a message to the White House that we will not be tricked into believing a group of mothers, fathers and their children who are a thousand miles away is the most serious threat we face as a nation. Contrary to reports of a steller economy, look how the DOW stalled since Mr. Trump's budgets came into play this year. We are at the same point we were at in January. That long climb that we saw with President Obama has ended.
47
@Joe Barnett
Joe, I understand your point about not allowing a single party to control all three areas. But the view is more because the GOP is the party in control.
While a Dem controlled house would put a check on the party in power, it will also no doubt lead to the stalemate and lack of legislation we endured during the final 6 years of the Obama administration. While this may be better then the GOP running everything, it is certainly not something to look forward to.
I don't know what the answer is. We hear that we should vote for any candidate we prefer, regardless of party, but how could that be? The parties stand for polar opposites. The Dems believe in a bottom up economy, in a John Maynard Keynes style tax and spend, good government. The GOP believe in a top to down economy, David Stockman supply-side economics. How does a voter vote for different parties simultaneously? One would have to have no economic or social beliefs guiding them.
I'm afraid that even if I did not demonize a republican candidate, I could not vote for someone who, well intentioned or not, was opposed to my basic beliefs and would operate against them.
6
In reply to Joe Barnett Sacramento
Democrats haven’t even won yet and your telling everyone what the first order of business in a Democrat controlled Congress is?
Remember the First Woman President? Remember The Blue Wall?
Remember the Times giving Secretary Clinton a 92% chance of winning the Presidency in 2016?
It’s not over Joe, until all the votes are counted.
3
@Billy from Brooklyn thank u for some common sense. I’m sick of Democrats claiming moral superiority and demonizing every Republican. What they say about us all being racist, sexist, etc is patently untrue. Like u said, we just believe in totally different styles of govt. still, for Dems to claim any kind of moral authority is simply outrageous! To say that this all started w Trump is simply untrue and smart people know that. If the Dems didn’t have the millennials “duped” this election would be no contest. One thing about this immigration stuff no media outlet mentions is that we are still the best country in the world when it comes to immigration. We let in more people a year than any other country yet we are chastised by Dems for not just letting everyone walk right thru our borders. What other country allows this? The problem w Obama is that he was “too nice” and gave everything away. Conservatives are sick of that. We’ve given everything away for years and years. Where has it gotten us? For all u Dems that think this is something new, it isn’t. Trump is just the manefestation of Obama’s idealistic free world. Trump is the reality that says everything isn’t free. This is the price of 8 years of Obama rule. We just didn’t cry about it. We gave him a chance and went along w him. Something u guys can’t seem to do.
2
Stuff of my nightmares, Nate. Watching the weather realizing that the GOP hopes and prays for rain, hail, sleet and wind - and for a last-minute slew of Jill Stein and Ralph Nader Democrats still awaiting their precious white knight on a horse to sweep them off their feet.
Get out and vote for God's sake. Make it early. Make it blue.
97
As an interested outside observer, the fact that the GOP are in this at all is a stain on the American reputation
Just on the raw facts and observations, Trump is detached from fact, accomplishments to date are in fact about removing social safety nets and protections for US citizens, the voters.
The tax cut gave the economy, which is in effect a debt junkie, more debt to make it feel good. When the high wears off however....
GOP has been cruel, racist, linked to seriously violent organizations, disrespectful, etc et.
Gerrymandering has given GOP electoral advantage, there are cases of outright bald tampering in electoral lists and eligibility, lies, falsehoods, and downright nasty campaigning.
And to top it off, the liar and chief has been seemingly corrupt, surrounded by people that were indicted, charged, and pled guilty to various crimes, won’t put his assets into a blind trust, is clearly well over the line in terms of emoluments, promotes family businesses.
Internationally the US is untrustworthy and becoming an insulting joke.
That, and as a party, Republicans are incapable of the decency required to fix the issues.
And yet, there's a lot of races that are tight and the senate will likely stay republican.
To almost anyone outside the US who isn't blinded by party affiliations and tribalism, the situation and outcome should be obvious in a western democracy, and yet- it isn't.
This vote is a chance at decency, it shouldn't be squandered.
162
bravo... you have written a most informative and thoughtful article.
bravo again.. from a proud Ontarian too.
8
@up north
Thx.
I am a former US citizen that spent a portion of my childhood in the US from 1969 to 1975.
Those were some rough years for US politics and the world in general.
That said, I learned to love the US during that time and countless trips back since.
It breaks my heart to see what has happend to the country and where it has been heading, first under Bush (now seems like the good 'ole days but it began then) and now Agent Orange.
4
@416 You mention that you are a former US citizen. I, om the other hand, am a former Canadian, born Winnipeg. Now a citizen here, for half a century.
So, I think it is "inappropriate" (I'd use a stronger word, but then the NYTimes would not publish this) for you to opine on our (I use that word quite carefully) government. Instead of working for change, you fled. Shame.
1
as long as we're watching politics, I hope the NY Times reports on the Kavanaugh accusers that are recanting. The journalists enjoyed the page views on the accusations, let's hope we see intellectual honesty and reporting on the recanting of those accusations.
Meanwhile the Dems overstepped on their underhanded attacks on Kavanaugh, and it may haunt them on Tuesday.
14
What is your source for this information about Kavanaugh accusers recanting?
19
@Joe yohka
Rhetorical rationalizations and revisionism is a typical response to facts and honesty.
Who exactly is recanting their position and what is it they said exactly? Is this the product of a Fox news clip or some internet meme from a newly formed Pro GOP Facebook account? Wouldn't be the first. There's one out there that has a Kavenagh accuser photographed with Soros, only it isn't. Its actually an activist form Eastern Europe that has nothing to do with Kavenaugh.
Given the amount of news smut out there on the Trump spectrum, it would do you well to quote fact and detail rather than inuendo and rhetoric.
28
@Joe yohka, some have asked the "source". If one searches on line, one can clearly see its factual. WashingtonPost, WSJ, USA Today, etc have reported on the factual recant. Thanks.
2
The only thing that matters tomorrow is changing one or both majorities in Congress to Democrat. Taking power back in Congress is the only meaningful way to slow/check Trump’s behavior and the hard-right Republican agenda that Trump and the Republicans are enacting.
However “reasonable,” “moderate” or “bipartisan” your Republican rep/senator may appear, he or she contributes to the Republican majority simply by being another Republican counted among their ranks in Congress. So he or she has to go.
And for the left/Dem/libs, don’t overthink this. Sanders and Clinton and the DNC are not on the ballot, so it is time to consolidate behind the “D” candidate in your state. Republicans voters will not overthink tomorrow, they will turn out and vote for the “R” candidate.
After 2 long years of talking, joking, arguing, smarting and marching about the outrages coming from Trump and the Republicans, it's time for Democrats to put up. If not, come Wednesday it will be time for us to shut up.
35
@Dan88 The problem most people who vote for a moderate Republicans have is that your “they’re still a pawn of Republican leadership” logic also applies to Democrats, and many people see empowering Nancy Pelosi and the other old guard Democratic leaders as no change for the better.
So yes, while Hillary and Bernie aren’t on the ballot many people with moderate sensibilities aren’t motivated to empower the same Democratic leadership.
3
NB to Dems and those on the left: Mobocracy's post is Exhibit A of the kind of "overthinking" that the left is guilty of.
Suffice it to say, a Republican counts as a Republican, and if the retain the majority they will remain in control of the legislative agenda, which will dovetail with Trump's priorities. They will get to appoint majorities on committees, appoint heads of committees, initiate and conduct investigations (or refrain from such), etc., etc.
This type of comment is one that needs to be tuned out at this point, and is suspect because it is an attempt to rationalize a lack of motivation -- the kind of argumentation Democrats might find appealing but many Republicans will reject as they head out to the polls tomorrow, dutifully following Trump's directive.
2
@Dan88 I agree that the dems need to take back something! Looking forward to all of the mindless people in the district I grew up in vote for Peter King. What I really can't wait to see is how this voters react when they do their taxes next year. King couldn't save them and has basically done nothing in his 20+ years. People in King's district are going to get destroyed. King has no clout because he votes lock step GOP every time so when it came time for the new tax bill, the GOP threw him under a bus because they don't care about NY.
2
The surge in early voting is concerning. Trump won on hate, he’ll keep winning on hate.
Hate is not sustainable, but it’s able to mobilize very well. Ask Cambodians. Or Haitians. Or Ugandans. Or Rwandans. Or the entire continent of Europe.
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@Luke, actually Luke, most Dems don't understand why he won, and that continues to day. It wasn't on hate, but on hope. Hope for intellectual honesty, hope for clear heads rather than just soft hearts. Hope for capitalism which is flawed but is vastly better than socialism or any other alternative. The audacity of believing Trump represented relative hope, compared to Hillary. Now maybe its clear.
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You are covering your backside Nat. That is a smart thing to do.
However the dems. are 80-20 in most polls in the House and unlike Hillary are not dropping, She dropped to the 60% range from much higher odds earlier in the game.
Although the republicans are 80-20 in most Senate polls, the only probable loss is Heidi, In N. Dak. All others are close. If they all but run the table they could take over, it a small number of seats unlike in the House where 60-70 seats are contested and the dems only need 23.
However the probable House win and Senate loss by the Dems is enough to put a check on the ego maniac demagogue Trump.
What they must do in the House is not go on a witch hunt, investigate Trump's countless questionable actions but no impeachment unless a crime is proven.
However things like censorship should be in play.
Also stress progressive things like health care, corporate welfare, common sense immigration policy that most Americans can agree upon and are popular, and unlike Hillary don't stress identity politics and the love of Wall Street, war and trade agreements and the dems will be well positioned to take all three branches in 2020.
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The Republican opportunistic polarization of the electorate into those who believe in freedom, free enterprise, motherhood, fatherhood, apple pie and Uncle Sam and those who believe in an invasive, tyrannical state-controlled-everything, whom they call "democrats" -- is a short term strategy and represents eating their seed corn.
You can only cry wolf so many times and the Republicans ploy warning the electorate of a democratic led socialist apocalypse is slowly collapsing -- mainly on the rubicon of health care. Most people -- now that increasing numbers have seen that the Republican for health care involves doing nothing while health insurers make out like bandits and people are denied coverage -- consider universal health care an ordinary, compassionate program of government and not some sort of totalistic mind-control mechanism.
You can only scapegoat, blame, dissemble and elide for so long. Eventually someone comes up and pulls the curtain back on the wizard, who turns out simply to be some old white guy simply protecting his inherited advantage.
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@Kip Leitner, interestingly the Dems cry wolf constantly. Including regarding Judge Kavanaugh who is such a clear choice for the Supreme Court with an unblemished record. Why don't the Dems talk about the allegations that have been recanted? Where is the intellectual honesty? The outcry over "net neutral" was such a farce. The internet still works fine, and worked fine before the net neutral rules were in place three years ago.
The Dems fear mongering is laughable.
@Joe yohka There is a qualitative difference between the Kavanaugh nomination and the current Republican efforts to disenfranchise voters. The former is speculative, the latter is real. All over the nation, Republicans are disenfranchising voters via passing specious laws.
The push to net neutrality is a real concern for Americans -- not one, as you put it, as to whether the net "works" or not, but rather the diminishment of access and skimming of profits. (Of course, the internet "works." There was never any doubt it wouldn't.)
"Where is the intellectual honesty?" About what? People across the political spectrum tell the truth, twist the truth, fib, tell white lies and outright lies.
The Republicans passed a law last year that violates consumer privacy by allowing internet service providers to record every click you make in your web browser and sell this information to anyone they want. This is an invasion of consumer privacy -- it's like having a camera on you as you window shop in the mall. Would you consent to that?
For 20 years I've worked in high technology: as a programmer analyst with some of the largest technology companies in the world. The threat to personal freedom posed by Trump's FCC chair, Ajit Pai, who prior to his job in the FCC worked as a lawyer for Verizon, is VERY REAL.
After his partisanship for Republicans as chari fo FCC, after Trump's presidency, he'll be getting a big consultancy job somewhere with the ISPs.
2
I have been knocking on doors the past month.
Almost all that have answered the door are enthused about our state Democratic candidates. Most of it is because of the embarrassment in the White House.
I can’t gauge those who do not answer the door. There is always a concern of voter apathy. But they get a free flyer of our positions on their door or under the mat.
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I still suffer from PTSD after the shock of the 2016 election result .
(Only slight hyperbole here!)
It’s frightening and discouraging that this election is so close.
I think winning control of the senate is a bridge too far but if the Democrats can’t win back the house in this cycle, they have only themselves to blame. As a lifelong dem Ive been frustrated and disappointed by the lack of a national message or agenda other than, “we are not Trump”.
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Districts are still gerrymandered, the GOP is still supressing votes wherever possible and 30 year old voting machines that are hackable and designed to make sure there is no paper trail in the event of a recount are still in use.
Yeah - the GOP may eke out a victory.
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Reality tv, indeed.
America is democracy, and we will stand or fall with it as our guide. This election isn't about perfection, it is about illuminating all the dark places, asking some pretty dark questions, and still, hoping for a slow, educated, move to a healthy culture.
Sure, this election is like what would happen if you had free and open elections in eighth grade, and let the guys in the back of the classroom vote on teachers and grades and classes, but still, I hope out hope that in a few months I will be able to sit in front of my tv and see Trump's tax returns, see his cronies brought to testify under oath about the hundreds of millions of dollars that may have been stolen through tax fraud.
Reality tv, under oath.
Hugh Massengill, Eugene Oregon
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"Democrats appear poised to win the House popular vote on Tuesday by a wide margin ..."
I didn't know there was such a metric. Please tell me where in the U.S. Constitution it says that political representation is decided on the basis of nation-wide popular vote totals. The Founders very deliberately decided to apportion political power on a state-by-state basis so that massive majorities in a handful of large states wouldn't have disproportionate sway over the American republic. If progressives find our current arrangement distasteful, they should advocate for a constitutional amendment that would move us to a parliamentary system. That said, it is highly unlikely that a sufficiently large number of small states would commit political suicide by agreeing to such a change.
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@Earl W.Yes, that was the founders intent- to satisfy slave holding states and benefit holders of land. But fast forwarding more than 200 years, much has changed and it makes no sense to have land mass make decisions over voters.
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It is distasteful. Our current system is what the founders called “taxation without representation”. They fought a war to be free. Will we have to again?
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@Earl W.
The article was not trying to claim the popular vote decided our representatives, it was trying to paint a more complete picture. As for the electoral college, well, how in the world do you justify making some individuals' votes worth more than others?
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I get pounded with robocalls, many of which are political, either asking for money or polling. I stopped answering the phone long ago if I don't recognize the caller ID. I would offer that these poll results are therefore more reflective of people who answer all calls regardless of where they came from. That's usually an older set of people, which is much more Republican. This will be a youth, women, and minority driven election. I doubt that traditional polling techniques tap into that population. Forget the polls. Just vote. Get everyone you can to vote. Trump must be stopped.
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@Bruce Rozenblit What if my friends want to vote for Republicans/Trump, should I still encourage them to vote or this election only about turning out people who support your views?
4
Agreed. I never answer a call if the number that shows up is unfamiliar. No one has my response to any poll.
All my friends also do the same.
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@Concerned
I believe in democracy and fair and open elections. Yes, tell them to vote. Voting is the bedrock of our republic. Republicans practice voter suppression, not Democrats.
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I have been following Live Poll. It is fascinating to watch how close it is. I find the outcome will depend on undecided. In most of the house races the number of undecided are higher or close to the lead Democrats have. I fear all will depend on how these undecided break.
3
@AK: which is why predicting too much in advance is a fools game -- and that the liberal Dems learned nothing about this backfires from 2016! (or 2000, for that matter).
So many factors are in play, including the weather and national mood, that you really only get a clear picture of what happened AFTER the election results.
The NYT has gone far too much in for "predictions" and this is because they are the biased, partisan voice of the Democratic Party and not impartial nor fair.
I don't see how anyone can conclude anything when the polls on the races that will decide the outcome is within the margin of error of the polls.
12
This election should be a blowout for the Dems. Three months ago it was looking that way. But it's actually become a serious, still iffy, horse race. Dems are panicking because their tactics to win are coming apart. It's been one blunder after another. The messy judicial hearings, calls to impeach,the Heidi Heitkamp apology, Elizabeth Warren DNA tests, Hillary & the caravan. If this election is a referendum on Trump then it also referendum on the viability of progressive politicians. If they lose...and all indicators are they will...then it will strengthen the hand of Democratic moderates. From the GOP's perspective losing the House is irrelevant. They're are going to win the Senate. Control the Senate & you control the most important lever of power: the judiciary. The GOP is playing the long game. Trump will be gone soon. They will still be here. The GOP can wait him out & achieve all of their objectives. Their goal is to nominate 3-4 very conservative Supreme Court justices. Trump has gotten two SCOTUS appointments, he may get more. He’s moved much faster on lower-court appointments than Obama did. The legal arm of the conservative movement is the best organized & most far-seeing sector of the Right. They truly are in it — and have been in it — for the long term goals. Control the Supreme Court, stack the judiciary, and you can stop the progressive movement, no matter how popular it is, no matter how much legislative power it has. Nothing will get in the way of that goal.
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@Bill Brown
Bill - Agree, should be a dratsic blowout for Democrats and reason/decency.
Not sure why or how the GOP is able to hang on. Some I'm sure is political tribalism, some fear, then rest.... not sure.
Also not certain who has their hands on the lever of the GOP. Could be as you suggest, a long game play for future advantage by Senior GOP leadership using Trump as a salesman. Could be foreign interests using Trump as a salesman to ultimatley weaken the US.
Either way, what is clear from a distance is that a large portion of the US voter base is being had by a used car salesman who can't sell steaks or a create a legitimate higher learning experience but claims to have made a fortune in real estate after multiple nearly impossible bankrupties and has become the PT Barnum of US politics.
...and yet its still close. How can that be?
15
@Middlemurray As usual, after the election, pundits will congregate to discuss “why” Democrats didn't have a better showing. Here’s “why.” For better or worse Republicans have the courage of their convictions. They do what they say they're going to do. For example everyone knows exactly how Trump is going to respond to the migrant caravan. We have no idea how the Democrats will respond if they had power. Pelosi & Schumer are actively undermining their party by instructing their members to NOT talk about this crisis. It makes the Democrats look weak and wishy washy. So it's come down to who do you trust more. Democrats who refuse to talk about it. Or Trump who won't stop talking about it. Voters are going along with him because they have no where to go. Being anti Trump isn't an agenda which will persuade independent swing voters. The Democrats have allowed Trump to have a free pass on this issue & to further define them. Their silence alienates voters. Democrats, if they invest time and resources in anything, they invest time in trying to convince people that Republicans are evil. They invest very little in trying to change minds and convince people Democrats are right on the issues. It is idiotic to try convince voters the other guy is “wrong” on policy if you can't convince them you are right.
5
A very sad commentary. Electing judges is a bad idea that has politicized the judicial branch of government.
3
After the disastrous last election results and how Hillary was going to win by a landslide, I don’t trust the pundits or the polls. We are voting for ourselves, our children and grandchildren. All that is needed for the triumph of evil is for good people to do nothing. Vote, vote, vote.
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After 2016, I have wondered how the NYT pollsters would call the 2018 mid terms. Happy to see that the confidence is not as apparent, and more caution or uncertainty is being provided.
Voters have become tribal, but the question is the turnout. Polls taken among likely voters are more valuable, but anticipating how many folks will actually vote is next to impossible.
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