The 10 Types of Districts That Will Determine Who Runs the House

I'm in IL-06 and have been actively working on Sean Casten's campaign (D) to unseat Peter Roskam (R). The excitement, involvement, and anticipation is palpable. As noted, IL-06 is one of the wealthiest districts in the state, but it's also a gerrymandered abomination: a "C" that captures Republicans in six different counties, and has several major Evangelical mega-churches and ultra-conservative Wheaton Colleg within its boundaries. I've been a Republican my whole life. My party left me, and sided with a misogynist, moronic, low-information president who doesn't DARE come to our neck of the woods to speak, as we'd run his keister out of town ... just like we're doing with Roskam, who hasn't held a town hall meeting with his constituency in 3000+ days. I plan on voting on 11/6 to end this national nightmare. This election may truly be our last chance to end the nation's careen towards fascism. (And I'm an English major, so I don't use these words lightly.)

“For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.” Those are the words of Charles Schumer, summing up the "new Democrat's" third way, post-NAFTA/CAFTA etc strategy. As far as the new Democrats are concerned, working people no longer exist. They've been following that path for over two decades. The result: in 2016 they lost to the most ridiculous presidential candidate in US history; and over the past decade they've lost all three branches of the federal government and most of their power at the state level. So what are the hapless, establishment Dems doing in response to those realities? They're doubling down on the failed strategy.

Regardless of any polling, please make a plan to vote Nov 6, 2018, or earlier. Check with your family, friends and neighbors to make sure they have access to the polls or help them make arrangements -even absentee. A solid democracy needs citizens to vote to be relevant and credible. As for me, I am voting based on checks&balances, morals, ethics and logic.

What does it say about the Democratic Party that, after all of Trump's and the Republican Party's atrocities, they're still running neck and neck with the Republicans? This is opinion polling, so don't even attempt to explain it away via voter suppression.

I live in one of these districts-TX07-and early voting here started Monday. Democrat Lizzie Fletcher has run a very positive campaign. She is appealing to those voters who feel Republican incumbent John Culberson has neglected his district--especially on medical insurance and flood protection. Her ads appeal to this district's moderate voters emphasizing how both sides need to work together. Lines here are long and I cannot tell what it means. Local county officials did not expect such strong turnout for the mid-terms and even today in rainy weather, lines at my early polling location were down the sidewalk. Hopefully, the lines are the sign of a blue wave.

One key factor would seem to be whether voters are wary of letting one political party have too much power in our system of checks and balances.

Mid-term elections should be abolished. Both House and Senate terms should be for four years. Terms should run concurrently with presidential ones. Team ticket ballots should be adopted requiring voters to choose a president, House members, and Senators with a single vote. This would enhance the possibility that presidents would have partisan majority support in Congress. It would also link the political fates of congressional members to their party's presidential nominee. Candidates would have to convince voters to select not only themselves but their party's presidential candidate as well.

Nate: One of those races you don't see coming is MD 1. It has a net republican registration of 15+, but it has an 18% independent registration. The Dem candidate is Army Ranger Jesse Colvin with four tours in Afghanistan and his wife's a police veteran and a republican. Jesse is running on a campaign pledge of country over party, outraged the incumbent freedom caucus member Harris by 35x last quarter, and Jesse has the endorsement of the former Republican member from the district. He has well over a thousand volunteer operation and recently trounced Harris in their only debate. His is one of those sleeper races to watch.

Wishful thinking. There is only one clear path to a House majority and that is to have a plan to benefit the working middle class. Also a plan for immigration reform and securing the border will help the democrats. Why are the Democrats not talking about DACA? All the rest of the paths are a mirage.

Surprised NJ11 isn't included anywhere here...a good example of a mostly white and middle class gerrymandered district with an increasingly unpopular incumbent GOP rep (Frelinghuysen) who chose to retire, and as of today, a popular Dem, Mikie Sherrill favored to capture the seat.

Well written and true, the only thing guaranteed in life is birth and death (not taxes, many rich people like Trump pay none). After the Hillary miss, most pollsters are covering their back side. Most polls show the democrats with an 80% chance of taking the House. Hillary at one time was near that mark. The thing to watch till Election Day if that number starts dropping to 70 or even 60% that would indicate trouble otherwise the dems will take the house. The Senate is the opposite. The republicans have a 80% chance of maintaining it since so many democratic seats are up. However republicans be careful, it is close enough if the dems sweep and take a few republicans seats they can take the Senate too.

The subtext of the Utah race is entirely gerrymandering. All four districts are gerrymandered to ludicrous proportions. Chris Stewart's UT02 shares voters from Salt Lake with the heavily conservative St. George over 300 miles away. Meanwhile, you can cross the street and you'll be in Mia Love's district. You can actually bike through all four Utah districts without leaving Salt Lake County. It wouldn't even take you a full day. Utah Republicans are corrupt as all get out. Mia Love's district is simply the most vulnerable piece of a rigged lot. Figures they would give the vulnerable seat to the only black, female Republican. The offensive part though is how everyone assumes you're Mormon if you live in Utah. The state is only about half-Mormon and the figure is overstated. Between jack-Mormons, apoliticals, and the politically suppressed, Mormonism is not as big a deal as news analysts would have you believe. Along the Wasatch front, Mormons are an over-represented minority. Ben McAdams does straddle the demographic divide though. He has some liberal cred in SLC. Public lands are a big deal to among Utah's urban populations. Ask Theresa Foxley. However, McAdams can also pander to Mormon sensibilities. The question is whether liberal enthusiasm for McAdams can partner with Mormon antipathy for Trump to deliver a Democratic victory. Love has every reason to feel extremely nervous. If I were McAdams, I would be hammering away at Love's public lands record. She's toast.

If anyone is reading from the NY22 Congressional district, please know that for over three years myself and others (4,000+ from the #NoHospitalDowntown Facebook group) have opposed Assemblyman Brindisi's downtown hospital concept. In our battle to stop this ill-conceived urban renewal scheme, the public has not been allowed any input. This as Assemblyman Brindisi, and Congressional hopefully, acted very poorly. His own emails make it very clear, thus we oppose him. Learn more and find links to Brindisi's emails at: http://www.nohospitaldowntown.com/VoterGuide

Simple answer to all the wondering: the numbers are on the side of reason. Everyone who can, must vote. Everyone who can help us vote should do their best to assist in some way. This may be our ONLY chance to avert chaos in our lives and to bring us back from the brink of multiple disasters. If we use this article as a guide to where to put our efforts and let the people be heard & counted, we will prevail. VOTE

This is why I can never vote democrat. It’s always a path to take over but never a path to help me. I have been in construction for 45 years. Lots of trades have been taken over by the illegals in heavy urban areas. Most of the jobs are by the foot. A foot of drywall, or a foot of concrete, or foot of shingle. If you have no overhead you are going to beat me on price. I have to pay taxes and they don’t. I can’t win on price. When it comes to the illegal immigration I am the dumb Trump supporter. The person that is the easy one to be hurt and not made sorry about. That white male. But this white male has three kids and a house that pays property taxes. Has been working for this country forever. A US citizen since birth.

Believe what you see: Dems have won big everywhere since 2016. Their fund-raising is seriously nuts! They are showing up and marching peacefully but with purpose in HUGE numbers everywhere to support myriad causes. They (we) won't sleep soundly even once until the bell rings on Nov. 6 and the votes are counted. I'm old, and have never seen or felt anything like it. Be The Wave.

Republicans will Say and Do ANYTHING to get elected. The Fox "news"- Republican campaign channel will repeat it incessantly, 24/7, and the most selfish and ignorant Americans who watch that propaganda programming will believe it. Sad, but true.

Nate, your break down of those 40 plus districts were eye-opening. I wrote them down into groups with # of district, and name of the candidates. I will have it ready on the 6th beside me in front of the TV to watch the vote tally. I am sorry not to see Isner's name in Alabama. I have put a small wager on her against my wife (we both root for her).