U.S. Stocks Slide Amid Weak Earnings and Worries Over China

Oct 23, 2018 · 32 comments
Duncan Lennox (Canada)
So Trump`s $800 billion tax cut for the 1% (esp. himself) & the GOP Trickle Down economics (which have always failed) are not sustainable ? McConnell says he has the solution , ie. cut entitlements. That will boost profits for the Dark Money Koch gang. America , you are better than the Trump-Kushner crime family & their GOP abettors ……….. aren't you ?
oldBassGuy (mass)
Not the big one. Comment I posted last Sept elsewhere: I mark January 1, 2018 as the official end of Obama's economy and the beginning of the next economic crash trajectory. Few supporting reasons: 1) corporate taxes were reduced by one third 1.1) creates artificial step increase in corporate performance without an actual increase in performance. (if a company's tax decreased by 1 million, its profit increased by 1 million, with zero change in goods and services produced) 1.2) money was used for stock buybacks, not for investment or wage increases 1.3) huge government borrowing (from China?) to make up for lost tax revenues, injecting billions of borrowed money into the economy, running up a huge goverment debt. 2) revoke Volcker rule, allows for propriety trading (gambling) with FDIC insured depositors savings by a few rich guys with access. This (combined with buybacks) is inflating another market bubble. 3) raised taxes (aka tariffs) on the middle class, which caused frontloading, another temporary bump in the economy. 4) two thirds of GDP is consumer spending, raised taxes (tariffs) places a huge drag on this. The market is not the economy of course. The run up in the market (approx 8% ?) is not correlated with the economy (4.2%). The recent 4.2% number in the economy is dismal given factors enumerated above. Since it is not possible to time the market or the economy, it is impossible to know when the next crash will occur, but we are certainly on the trajectory.
patrick ryan (hudson valley, ny)
Among all the lies coming from Trump, one of the biggest is taking credit for the success of the stock market, For the current year, my TIAA retirement account is down over 10%. Compared to the last 4 years of the Obama Presidency, my TIAA retirement account return averaged over 10% return each year,. With Trump waging a tariff war with China that has no end, trillions spent on the military and tax cuts for the billionaires, I think the market will continue to crash, By election day my retirement is going to a safe place such as a money market. It will probably stay there until Trump and the Republicans are out of office and sanity and economic stability returns to the United States.
Mtnman1963 (MD)
The economy has been living on the Mt Dew of near-zero interest rates for almost a decade. Everyone is supposedly flush with cash, but it must be in the wrong place because they are also loaded with debt. Uncertainty rules with the Great Pumpkin running his mouth. People are literally playing musical chairs, waiting for the Fed to do what everyone knows it will do - raise rates. P/Es are at historic highs outside the dot-com bubble. Wages, fueling 70% of the economy, are stagnant. People, especially millennials who lived through the past decade, are skittery, and will shut down spending at the first sign of a shock. There will be an adjustment, and it will be large. 30%+ I'm all cash 4 months now.
Wilcoworld (NY)
This trade war is coming around fast to its conclusion. From get go, the only logical trajectory was financial tumult for everyone but the super wealthy of the USA. China, Japan, Asia, Europe, S. America et al, who cares. After all, the plan is to punish them. You know, just because they're not us. His warped mind believes they do nothing for 'us' like his bellows about Central America. GEEZ, do ya think he's got it wrong ..... Like if there's disaster in California farm country, and it's too cold or inclement to plant emergency crops in USA, who'd come to our rescue ... Mexico? Central America? Ah, well ....
P Lock (albany, ny)
People seem to forget that the positive GDP growth cycle is close to a 10 year mark. An important indicator that indicates the slowing and potential end of it is the comparison of the unemployment rate to the inflation rate. When these 2 numbers become close it is a sign of the potential for an economic slowdown. As unemployment reduces to full employment the wage and price pressures develop that support/increase inflation. It's a sign that the growth cycle has hit its peak. Currently this gap is only 1.4% for the US. The real concern is that with an already large federal deficit due to tax cuts and increased defense spending Trump has little room to provide a federal stimulus when the economic downturn occurs which could be sooner than you think.
Tony (NY)
DOW dn 30 points… What a slide! ;)
woofer (Seattle)
If the stock markets are going to seriously tumble, one can only hope they will have the decency to do it before the midterm elections.
LJ (MA)
Ironic that the tax cuts which promised prosperity, growth and corporate reinvestment has yielded the opposite. Surprise surprise, companies have not grown their bottom lines, so the Trumpeteers promise that increased taxable profits could replace the loss of a higher tax rate seems to be bogus....
DSS (Ottawa)
I'm afraid when the big crash comes again, we won't find the money to bail us out. So much for Trumpism.
su (ny)
Wall street wants everything, they want Trump, but they want globalism, they want China roars, To be honest after 2008 wall street and their financial minds are nothing for me. I cannot reconcile with these people and their expectations. Just imagine in any company other than financial industry, to do their customers what Goldman-Sachs did in 2008 . Did you remember house hearing. How can you reconcile this malignity against normal people?
Larry Eisenberg (Medford, MA.)
No worries about Donald Trump? A nuclear treaty he'll dump, A China Trade War Unlike any before, You can expect an ominous slump!
RP Smith (Marshfield, Ma)
You mean tariffs and twitter wars with our trading partners does not build a strong economy? Who knew!?!
yves rochette (Quebec,Canada)
@RP Smith It is so complicated...
Ray Sipe (Florida)
Trump's fantastic economic policies starting to have effect. Hold on World; America is set to take everyone down with us. Trump is a Nationalist; does not care about anyone but the rich. Markets will tank; rich will get richer and we working people will work forever at slave wage jobs. Thanks GOP. Vote out Republicans
seriousreader (California)
What's fascinating is that today's indices (except maybe the Russell 2000: too big to hack?) seem to have bounced back after hitting the low of 10/11/18. Curious. Who would be motivated to buy for that reason? Whoever doesn't want the market to hit a new low before the Election, I'd guess: e.g., hackers who report to whoever is propping up the current regime. I can't imagine that programmed trading by actual investors - other than those who understand about the hackers... - would care about the 10/11 low.
Mossy (Washington State)
How do you like Trump now Republican voters? If you want some checks on this insanity do not vote Republican in the mid-terms!
Brandon (Ohio)
I bet the "Trump Stock Market" is now being referred to as the "Obama Stock Market" or the "Democrat Stock Market." If only Trump had not thrown monkey wrenches into President Obama's vibrant, recovering economy...
ABC (Flushing)
Chinese have a tariff on everything and everyone not from China. “There have been millions and millions of Chinese Americans but zero American Chinese” says Chinese author and Harvard graduate Eric Liu. Not 1. Of the Americans granted Chinese citizenship, 100 percent were already Chinese! Both parents born in PRC. Both parents were the ‘right’ kind of Chinese (Han). As for Caterpillar, a few years ago it spent 500 million USD on a fake Chinese company, Siwei. Chinese are emulating Japan in the 1930s by nibbling neighbors, fake islands, an expanding military and spy network. Meanwhile, one of our best universities (Harvard) is obligated to give seats to citizens of our enemy? Would China ever give up to an American even 1 seat at Beijing University if any of the 50 million Chinese applicants wanted the seat? “Why America Slept” is a book now in the making.
alan haigh (carmel, ny)
@ABC What is the per-capita wealth of the Chinese compared to U.S. citizens? What stage of the industrial revolution are they at compared to the U.S.? It is as absurd to expect their economic policies to mirror ours while they are struggling to catch up and have a very long ways to go for their citizens to enjoy similar wealth. Is it ethical for Americans to be such pigs of the worlds resources, including all the cheap Chinese products we are anxious to gobble up?
hb (mi)
@ABC What does this have to do with this market slump? You can’t start a war with a nuclear power, so what’s your point. The best way to deal with China is with effective negotiated trade deals. Orange Cheeto only knows bankruptcy, are you ready?
alan haigh (carmel, ny)
Trump will just have to yell longer and stronger about the caravan. His voters will listen and block out all other sounds. This is the rare case where there is clear evidence that the president is responsible for a downturn in the economy, at least as far as stock investments- his policies have led directly to this.
njglea (Seattle)
It's only going to get worse, ladies and gentlemen. Get your money OFF the craps tables called "stock" markets. They are rigged. Carl Ichan is now trying to take over Dollar Tree. That should tell you something. We'll be lucky to have two dollars to spend when he and his Robber Baron brethren get done crashing the global economy and pocketing the proceeds of OUR misery.
c harris (Candler, NC)
The public has been sold on the idea that the Trump boom has lifted all boats. Which is of course false. Rich people got 85% of the loot from the latest Republican tax giveaway. And when the election is over McConnell and crew will do their level best to cut programs to the middle class and poor because the Republican tax cut and spending has added a trillion to the national debt.
Panthiest (U.S.)
Trump pounded his chest when the stock market was doing fine. Will he take the blame now?
JMT (Minneapolis MN)
Machine based AI doesn't vote on November 6, but votes every nanosecond by its algorithmic programs of buy, hold, and sell. You can fool some of the people all of the time, all of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time. Machines know even better and the machines don't rely on Fox News to help them to understand the world around them. Those who believe in the "efficient market hypothesis" and the "Wisdom of the Marketplace" will someday soon be saying they "knew it was overpriced" and "knew it was going to crash" but many will suffer just like in 2008. Unlike then, there is no one in the Executive Branch to avoid a collapse. Trouble in the White House and trouble on the horizon.
Paul Wortman (Sausalito)
It’s October when markets confront reality in the form of a Trump trade war induced slump in China, the revival of the economic problems with the European Union ‘s PIIGS (as in Purtugal, Ireland, Italy, and Greece), the end of the tax cut stimulus, and now the domestic fallout from the Trump trade wars. Whether or not this is the anticipated market correction will become clear in the coming days. But one thing is clear: it’s now Donald Trump’s economy and he has put in place all the elements for a sharp correction if it happens.
Mtnman1963 (MD)
Between the huge run-up after the oversell of 2009, the sky-high P/E ratios of all flavors, the Trumpistas doing everything they can to sabotage the economy with tariffs, tax cuts/borrowing and Donald just running his mouth, I've been all cash for 4 months. I'll buy after the 30% drop once the Fed raises rates to where they need to be.
Bill (NY)
It's only the beginning folks. This is what happens when an erratic megalomaniac is put in charge. The chickens are coming home to roost on this, and many other issues. From raising the deficit to levels his predecessor would have been tarred and feathered for, to giving huge tax breaks to those who have no need for them, and using the office he was elected to as a personal piggybank. We are not just facing a potential financial crisis that will hurt, and appears to be especially hurting those who voted for him as well as everyone else. US steel is now the most expensive in the world due to tariffs. Soon there will be other segments of US businesses feeling the effects of bad financial decision after bad financial decision. What I personally find appalling is that this destructive entity has a good chance of being reelected. Do we as a nation have a death wish?
Pete in Downtown (back in town)
Volatile markets are good news for investment banks and hedge funds with high-speed trading operations, but bad news for investors such as 401(k) account holders. These are the winners and loosers in the market. The current government does more than its fair share to add uncertainty, rather than exerting a calming influence. Lastly, pretty much every economic downturn in recent decades was preceded by increasingly jittery stock markets; if that holds true, we're in for a rough patch ahead.
Darth Vader (Cyberspace)
@Pete in Downtown: "Volatile markets are good news for investment banks and hedge funds with high-speed trading operations, but bad news for investors such as 401(k) account holders." If you have a 10-20 year time horizon, which IRA and 401k holders should have, you don't need to sell (and lose). Don't panic ... "Buy and hold" wins in the long run.
muddyw (upstate ny)
Some people are living on their 401k/IRA. For those people I'd suggest more conservative investments, and diversify.