This is an utterly misleading report. People are working 2-3 jobs to keep food in their stomachs and a roof over their heads. The rich are getting richer; the poor work longer hours for scraps. This is another reason our country is so angry and devided. Wake up Irwin.
3
LOL, look at all the squealing, the economy is doing great, people are stoked.
Everyone's working, but at a pittance. WHERE is the supplemental article on how much all of these employed workers are making? Write about who's making out well to those who aren't; let's see the people, Newspaper of Record, who make your article so "bright and sunny".
2
The Democrats are furious over this great economic news while America celebrates!
1
Welcome October, rates, not Presidents, are in charge. Wax your skis.
Job creation:
January 2017 – September 2018: 4,063,000
January 2015 – September 2016: 4,564,000
Difference:
Current administration: 501,000 fewer jobs
Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National) - 1-Month Net Change
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
Projection:
At the rate so far, at the end of the current administration 1,145,000 fewer jobs will have been created than the number created during the previous one.
3
The fool finds the bad in every situation. The 'king' finds the good in every situation. There are too many fools here, and not enough kings. In the United States and we can each choose to be and do (almost) whatever we desire... so seriously, why do so many choose to focus on the negative ALL THE TIME
We're winning with Trump! and it's good!
1
More jobs were created under Obama, and real wages grew more too.
All the spin in the world will never change that undeniable fact.
3
This assessment is a bit like celebrating the fact that one is enjoying excellent metabolic health -- except for the grade 2 cancer that is growing unabated and untreated. It may look like a healthy economy for the moment, but accelerating inflation and interest rates, trade deficits that are expanding in spite of efforts to shrink them, flattening yield curves, exploding student and subprime consumer debt, a skyrocketing federal deficit, and the dismantling of banking and financial regulations intended to guard against the next great recession make it clear that this little party is about to turn very sour. Funny how that was overlooked by this column.
3
Gonna party like it's 1969? I doubt it.
Times readers are indeed a depressed group. No matter how good the employment numbers and other economic reports are, the Times comments are mostly depressed and negative. Does the sun never shine for you? Does every apple on the tree have a worm?
Of course, one wonders how election after election New Yorkers can put back in office the corrupt people like Cuomo and the current mayor. I guess New Yorkers have yet to figure out that if you repeat the same mistakes, you seldom get different outcomes. Wake up!
3
@sftaxpayer
I'm a big fan of unnecessary trillion dollar deficits - so this is a great time for me !!
It is always amusing to read the comments in the Times when the facts get in the way of progressive/Democratic narratives.
7
@LTJ
The fact was the job number was terrible.
The conservative spin was that job growth 35% lower than the average Obama month was "great".
1
‘Good’ is a quintessentially meaningless qualifier. Subjectivism is a cruel mistress.
1
Thank you, Mr Trump.
4
The numbers are great, overall. And the ADP numbers and hurricane effects strongly suggest next month will be even better. But that workforce participation rate is a sticking point. We have to figure out how to get that up.
@Matthew Kilburn
To continue having growth in jobs, you also have to have people to take up those jobs. The job growth can be small but if it is along with drop in unemployment it is a good.
The real number is the unemployment rate because that is what determines the health of the country.
It is telling that every time you publish a story about how great things are going in the economy, lots of leftists comment that things are still awful, almost inevitably because while things might be improving for all, the rich are doing even better.
In part, they have a point. Unemployment is down, but too many people still aren’t working (often because they’re gaming welfare programs, like disability). Wages are up, but not as much as they might be, because we’re still overrun with illegal immigrants and we haven’t shut the door on unskilled legals. (While whining about inequality, leftists still demand massive immigration, which incontestably depresses wages, increasing inequality)
And the evny; always the envy. Yes, things are better for them, but they're also better for the rich, and we can’t have that.
We’ve demonstrated that way to improve the economy: cut taxes, especially on business and success. Scale back stifling regulations. Send illegals home and end unskilled immigration. Reduce trade barriers on American products.
But leftists will NEVER be happy unless, while improving matters generally, we simultaneously impoverish the successful.
It must be very depressing to go through life seething with envy at the success other people have earned.
4
Democrats to the voters:
Put us in power so we can stop all this success!
2
Maybe some day before it is too late we will measure these economic indicators: aquifer levels, loss of top soil to erosion, rise in temperature due to carbon dioxide, amount of groundwater contaminated due to fracking, decline in purity of resources being extracted from the ground, loss of forests and tidal lands.
It is all about economic growth, yet we are stuck living on a finite planet.
3
Jobs??? A better economic indicator is HOUSING.
Look around you right now. In your extended family, on your street, how many multiple generation families do you see? On my average middle class street of 15 single family homes, 7 have 20 year olds who played the game right, diploma, training or college, but must live at home due to housing costs. My wife and I have have 5 siblings total and from these 6 households, there are now fourteen kids who are now 20 - 30 year olds. They played the game correctly and no substance abuse, problems with the law - 6 do have their own places, 8 do not.
HOUSING IS or is soon an approaching crisis for younger workers. There is also, transportation, medical coverage, and other variables that individually are far better descriptors of the economy than jobs.
15
@Jon Another reason not to restrict your state to Democratic control as they have obviously failed in the creation of sufficient affordable housing stocks.
1
Something is wrong with this interpretation. Is this assessment considering all of the people who left the labor force and have not reentered? A quick look at FRED will show you a steady decline in recent years in both male and female labor force participation. The other question to consider is the types of job openings. Do these jobs provide full-time employment, match the skill levels of workforce entrants (e.g., newly minted college students), and offer living wages?
9
is it suspicious the same folks who stack the deck in assembling and releasing employment statitics also stand to benefit from releasing a rosy picture?
what about alternative facts, encompassing who is and is not counted, those working under the radar, and what percentage of those who are employed earn enough $ and hours to support an independent life or a family?
2
So 40% of people in California are below the poverty line. Wealth inequality is increasing ever more and more. Rents are unsustainable in many parts of the country. If you're wealthy, yes these are great times but just having a job doesn't mean what it used to mean.
18
Hmmm. California is and has been 100% run by Dems for a number of years now. Could there be a correlation with the poverty rate?
2
@cort the middle class was driven out of California by the high cost of living created by high taxes, regulations and Big Government. The poor can’t afford to leave
1
@cort
California creates more jobs and economic output than any other state.
It's not close.
Your LIES about poverty aren't fooling anyone.
Many commenters are urging us to look beyond the unemployment rate as the sole bellwether of a booming economy. Well, in the past it WAS a pretty good measure. But what's more important now is not whether people have jobs but how good those jobs are. President Trump will continue to brag how the unemployment rate shows how great he's doing—never mind that these numbers are simply a continuation of how things trended upwards for years under President Obama.
But there's some irony here. Maybe the biggest factor that enabled President Trump's razor-thin 2016 victory was the unhappiness of the middle and working class. Their gripe wasn't unemployment—these hard working guys and gals had jobs, often more than one. Their problem was wages—they were working harder for less money, and their anger about this left them susceptible to a conman like Trump.
Except now he has to produce. Telling somebody who has to work two jobs, "Hey, the unemployment rate is at a big low, aren't you delighted?" doesn't seem very persuasive. Any kind of average wage statistic is also bogus, since it combines soaring wages for things like tech jobs with the stagnant if-not-falling wages for the Trump supporters.
So it should be interesting how President Trump and his toadies fare in the months ahead, as their role shifts from blaming others to being the ones to blame. This should also be a bit of an interesting IQ test for our people. I'm optimistic enough to think that they won't fail this test twice.
12
@Jerry S. - In the micro-economies, wages are up in the type of jobs that Trump supporters typically hold. Welders, truck drivers, and machinists are getting signing bonuses and wage increases.
This presumably means that people in other types of jobs are not doing as well. Also, signing bonuses aren't counted in the median-wage statistics.
6
@Jonathan, you’re absolutely right, of course—some blue collar workers are doing very well, and if they have been supporters of President Trump they will probably continue to. For example, you mention welders. Here in Milwaukee, for years already welders have been at a great premium and have been able to command salaries of $60,000 a year or so. There are a few things that make welders a little special; besides needing some special education in welding, you also need some math skills and aptitude, and you need to be willing to put up with some tough working conditions.
But the big question is, what percentage of blue collar workers are doing better, and how many others are still stuck?
In his 1980 election President Reagan asked voters “are you better off than you were four years ago?" One big question for this fall’s elections and especially in 2020 is how will voters answer that question, and that will be at least one of the things that will determine how these elections will go. Of course, there are other questions that voters base their decisions on. Myself, I think with the Supreme Court soap opera this was a rough week for the Republican brand, and I think many voters will remember these events for many years each time they go to vote.
Jerry, Obama was in office for 8 long years, not once did he increase minimal wages, and now you expect Trump to wave his magic wand and do all the things Obama should have done... The mess America is in didn't happen over night, but years of neglect by both the Democrats and Republicans... "Rights right,and right don't hurt anyone"
So with all of this good news, how are people actually doing in the US? What is the distribution of wages? Has this "strong" economy led to more people in jobs that provide a living wage (for hours worked, not by the hour) and affordable healthcare that patients can actually afford to use? Has income and wealth inequality lessened? Can people better afford to send their kids to school and go on vacations? Are jobs more secure? What about those who are disabled or retired? Are they better off? Given the inequality today, and the laws that grant large advantages to those with large companies and massive wealth, the traditional measures of our economy tell us little. Why not report measures that better reflect how the vast majority are doing? You know the joke: if I stick my head in the oven and my feet in the ice box, on average I'm just fine.
8
The oligarchy now has it that even when the economy is doing super, the middle and lower economic classes don’t really get ahead at all, sorta stay stuck, while the rich make out handily.
Imagine how bad it will get for the middle and lowers when the blush comes off.
5
There is definitely a Trump bump, and the realization that confidence, as a defining factor in economic growth can be attributed to him and GOP policies.
Which leads me to what I see, as a Trump detractor.
The infusion of $1.5 trillion of borrowed money into the economy, is a major factor in the bump. The extra cash average Joe gets, are spent, jobs are created and wages rise to meet demand. The repatriation of, possibly trillions in corporate cash, from overseas, as well as corporate side of the tax cut, play into the above mentioned, "confidence factor." Average Joe sees a booming market and his 401k advancing. He spends with "confidence!"
As repatriation money dries up and corporate buybacks slow, so will market valuations. That, with average Joe's temporary tax cuts ending, disrupts the corresponding confidence. End of the bump!
Joe lost his tax stimulus job. Unfortunately, the enormous amount of borrowed money, used for Joe's temporary tax cut and corporate America's permanent 40% tax cut, will disallow for the possibility of any further stimulus that may have helped him.
Joe will be wondering how all that money that used to be in his 401k, got into the pockets of Trump and his buddies. He will try to reconcile how he once railed against the socialist Democrats who supported the SS, Medicare, Medicaid, that he now wishes he now had. Poor Joe.
9
the King of Debt answers to nobody, but craves the favor of the very rich and the stolen adulation of his hoodwinked marks.
1
@Walter Ingram
I think you mixed up some names and numbers?
I fixed it for you:
Bush/Obama injected $4 Trillion + into the economy.
In his next piece, Neil Irwin explores the positive side of mass surveillance and the accompanying loss of civil liberties and rise of the police state. Neil points out how police brutality and mass incarceration are actually a net gain for society as a whole. Neil also highlights the advantages of maintaining a bloated military and intelligence apparatus which intervenes in the affairs of practically every sovereign nation on earth. Also, Mr. Irwin is constructively optimistic regarding the continuing wave of global over-development that is destroying an untold number of species and wreaking havoc worldwide. Stay tuned.
6
Am I reading the Comments correctly? If one DOES believe the economy is great, it’s due to President Obama, not Trump. Or if I choose to NT believe the figures and think they “lie”, then it’s Trump’s fault. So it’s a matter of “heads, you win, tails you lose” where Trump ic concerned?
6
Glad Trump is president. I don't believe we'd have so much good news with a Democrat. People might vote based on the economy in November. Hasn't that happened before?
4
@Bill Carson Take a look at a plot of the unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It’s been declining steadily at the same rate since 2010. The rate of decline didn’t change when Trump became president, unemployment kept decreasing at the same rate as it did during Obama’s presidency since the recession. I’m glad it’s as low as it is now, but there’s no evidence Trump deserves credit. Could be unemployment isn’t influenced much by who’s president.
1
so why are the markets down?
3
@jj Ganesh - Stock prices are based on what will happen on the future. If this is as good as it gets, then there must be trouble ahead.....or so the punters think.
3
@jj Ganesh Stocks don't just react to how well the economy is doing, they also react to things like interest rates. Interest rates are going up, which means a higher return on bonds, which means fewer people looking to buy stocks. Which means downward pressure on stock prices.
I have a feeling most of us still need to work at age 60, especially with the decline of pensions and soaring healthcare costs. Plus, we now have to make up for the paucity of taxes paid by the likes of the president and his wealthy brethren. Someone has to pay to keep the roads and bridges in good shape and for entitlement programs, and it obviously can’t be the president and friends, as they need the money to build family dynasties and purchase more properties and have events such as destination weddings in Italy.
But there are few jobs for us. We get laid off and can’t even get a job interview for the most part, never mind get hired. It’s even worse for older women than for men.
These rosy job reports never jive with my situation or that of many people I know. I suspect we’re not even counted.
7
Not from my almost 60 years point of view!!! Five years ago I was “laid-off” from my full time position as a project manager. As a result I lost my house, have been living in the graciousness of friends, now work as a bartender, never far from being homeless... again.
3
What Mr. Irwin is celebrating is the fact that there has been no significant upward movement in wages, despite low unemployment. The jobs added have not given workers the added purchasing power to drive prices up. Neither do workers have the bargaining power to push wages up.
Great news? Only if you are among those sucking all the excess profits up and using the money to buy more stocks.
14
so we should now routinely expect that markets plunge on such happy news?
2
President Trump’s booming economy continues to soar!! A grateful nation thanks you, President Trump!
5
Tax cuts and deregulation work! Thank you President Trump for fixing the mess you inherited from Obama!
5
Wrong. Printing money and creating debt didn’t work under Reagan, or Bush, and its not working now. Our debt is skyrocketing; all we’ve done under Trump is saddle our children and grandchildren with a staggering burden. Even when normalized to GDP. Most of the tax reductions for companies have gone into stock buybacks, driving up prices, and huge salary increases for senior executives, whose limited spending doesn’t drive the economy up enough. Inflation-adjusted minimum wages continue downward; most of the job increases are minimum wage jobs, which can’t support a family. And a Republican Congress can’t wait to implement reductions in Medicare and social security; see Larry Kudrow’s remarks two weeks ago. Most Americans have saved nothing for retirement; reductions in these programs will have massive negative effects.
2
@Larry the mess Trump inherited from Obama was an economic expansion that was setting records. Trump did trigger and economic jolt but he did so by vastly increasing the deficit and giving a windfall to the wealthy and to corporations which didn't hire or invest but which rewarded their wealthy investors. Unless you're one of those wealthy investors, Larry, your future is not looking so good. Just wait until the sugar high from trumps tax cuts disappears and the social safety net gets ripped to shreds.
@Albert K Henning The strong majority of government spending is being driven by entitlement programs. Welfare, social security, etc.
When you are willing to cut those, or actually raise taxes on the people who benefit from that spending...let us know.
Democrats aren't interested in cutting the debt or the deficit. They're interested in using both as an excuse for more wealth redistribution.
Neil Irwin, always a Pangloss. Here’s the reality, from the NYT’s own news story about the job numbers: “Millions of Americans remain stuck in part-time or temporary work, and many of the middle-class jobs wiped out by the recession have never returned. As a share of the population, employment remains well below its 2000 peak, a gap only partly explained by the aging population...Most significant, strong hiring has not yet translated into robust raises for many workers. Average hourly earnings rose 2.8 percent in September from a year earlier, down from 2.9 percent in August and well below the growth that economists would usually expect with the unemployment rate this low.”
7
Sure seems like the economy is good for Neil Irwin -- he can get away with getting a report done without actually doing any work. This -- as the vast majority of reporting on the economy -- is about as lazy an analysis as I've ever seen in a legitimate media publication. Anything to say about the nature and quality of those new jobs? About measures of equality and inequality? Just another superficial gloss of the numbers without any meaningful analysis. Sad.
14
If this is so great, why did the market take another dump for the 3rd day on a row?
3
@Douglas Lowenthal rising interest rates
So much applause for increasing employment. Has anyone checked the average or median household income? In my suburban area they are beginning to build condominiums starting at $559,000 - in a place where the median income is $23K. Haves and havenots, let them eat cake.....
7
@Em &23k per year is nearly the poverty line in the US. Where do you live where the median income is only $23K. That’s about $11 per hour for one full time employee. Hard to imagine a place where half of all households earn under that amount.
Our economy seldom goes into recession on its own. It does so when the Fed, our nation's economic party pooper, responds to good economic times by raising interest rates to the point of creating a recession.
When labor is in short supply, its time for employers to invest in capital assets for productivity gains. If interest rates are raised, it will be more expensive to do so, and such investments will be less likely. I think the Fed may be pushing up interest rates too quickly at this time. Perhaps a tepid jobs report, or two or three, will slow its march to the next recession.
1
@RM. Right. There were no recessions prior to 1913 when the Federal Reserve was created. No Panic of 1907. No Long Depression in the 1870s. Keep those alternative facts coming!
1
The Fed, economists, and financial reporters live in a world far removed from reality. I recently saw a job posting for an experienced dishwasher at Memorial Sloan Kettering that required keeping your schedule open for more than 12 hours each day, 7 days a week. The variable work schedule would be provided only a week in advance. And the position was for less than 19 hours a week. It’s a job that not only leaves you in poverty, but prevents you from surviving by cobbling together several jobs.
If the labor market was actually healthy, why do such job openings still abound? For most ordinary people, it certainly doesn’t feel like a strong job market much less full employment.
29
I am struggling to see this in a positive light. Can someone explain to me then why this map, https://www.opportunityatlas.org/
, shows only an average of 33k for a family when my parents made 40k in the 80's and they were in the middle class. Keep in mind this data is from the same government. If cola and inflation together are outpacing wages, unemployment will mean very little and if a recession does occur this could be a real disaster. And how is that no-one has taken a real hard look at the tax overhaul either, did any of you notice that there really will be no change in your taxes. With the reduction of salt, you won't be able to reduce your tax bracket but will be offset by a new tax bracket which really nets a zero for total income taxes. And then add in the fact that the latest gas prices will end up eating any net savings for the lower end of the spectrum wage earners (8% of budget for low wages, after taxes). Also note this same tax will actually increase for small businesses (i.e. 5% increase). It's only large businesses net the new 21% rate from 35% and that's if they weren't already reducing their rates through their accountants. All this shows me is that you have more non full time employment that's being counted but average yearly income is really suppressed. What's even more surprising is that the new tax bracket for very high wage earners will get 2.6% tax reduction from previous years (for example if you make as a couple 400k a year).
15
@dirkm7 well average is the wrong number to use. It is skewed. If you want to measure the middle class income you need median. The median in the Atlanta metro area is $62000 per household
1
@Stefan Income is skewed right. That means the median is less than the average.
@dirkm7 Your link is showing data from the Obama years. Of course it wasn't good. He thought the economy was controlled by some "magic wand" that he didn't have, and that only Trump could get.
1
While the job creation number is OK, the unemployment rate relects the fact that baby boomers are retiring, and thus leaving the work force, at a rate of around 10,000 per day. In other words, the pool of workers is shrinking pretty rapidly.
8
not mention:
those who can't be hired because of
criminal records
drug addiction
locked in prison
responsible for care of relatives
immigration issues including illegal immigrants
loss of benefits exceeds potential income
age
1
@Randy Your anecdote doesn't match the department of labor statistics which show 2018 has an all time high labor force in the U.S.A. I guess if you don't like reality, you can always pretend the weather is bad.
These figures are misleading. On what are they based? Here is what I see. Many people have temp jobs. Many people are hired to work part time at very low wages, with no healthcare. For starters, this is true of Lowes, Home Depot, Target, Walmart, Rite Aid, and the many companies that provide in-home care to the ill and disabled. I keep hearing about the inability to find unskilled workers. Where are the government-sponsored training programs, as opposed to the disreputable for-profit "schools" that our Dept. of Education wishes to champion? They would be swamped with applicants.
15
Unemployment number should be taken with a
grain of salt. It is derived from household survey
during the month. If a person worked, few hours,
at the time of the call that person is considered
employed. working 4 hours a day is not really
being truly employed. Every data derived from
the sample survey has 3% margin of error. This number is always portrayed as precise.The data is politicized and generally is headlined. GDP is , on the other hand, inflated by pricing many services
like healthcare at astronomical level to make USA
the biggest and richest country. No other country
has health care prices and defence expenditure
to match USA's so they remain behind at least
statistically.
9
Eight years of job growth. And still lackluster wage growth. I wonder if it has anything to do with the lack of bargaining power of workers, due to the destruction of Unions by the corporate class?
30
@thetruthfirst of course it does! Remember the infamous video of the woman billionaire in Wisconsin obtaining Scott Walkers promise to pursue “right to work” legislation? He kept his promise.
2
I manage construction and repair projects at a chemical plant in the Houston area and it is almost impossible to fully staff a project these days. The contractors we hire are begging for skilled employees. These are not part time or seasonal unskilled jobs, they are positions where at the low end workers are making $1000 per week and at upper end $3000 per week. Most construction projects here can’t complete on time because of lack of workers. It amazes me that these jobs go empty.
12
But those skilled construction jobs require workers with several years of very specific experience and often professional licenses. Were these contractors hiring and training apprentices and journeymen in the years after the recession? Unemployment was so high for so long, employers got accustomed to an on-demand labor supply. They could hire a fully trained worker when they wanted and could ignore developing the future pipeline. These businesses are reaping what they sowed.
Construction jobs also are project based and highly economically cyclical. People working them have to be able to survive many stretches of unemployment over the course of their life. The weekly pay you cite isn’t that great once you take the constant wage unpredictability into account. $1,000 a week sounds good until you realize you’ve only worked 26 weeks per year on average over the past decade.
19
Sometimes I wonder what the difference is between a job and a profession.
And then when I think about money, all of my other concerns just vanish.
simple:
in a job, you work for someone else and receive wages and possibly benefits.
a profession, be it cosmetologist or structural engineer, or (until lately) teacher, first requires a professional license in order to be able to work, either for someone else or for yourself.
I'm sorry but these deeply flawed U-3 unemployment figures are horribly misleading no matter which party is in charge, even the Fed has rejected them and uses labor force participation instead-- 100 million working-age Americans out of the workforce and employment-pop ratio near 1970's levels. That's worse than any country in Europe, even than Greece, Italy or France with their supposedly "sclerotic" economies! Not to mention most job creation is part-time "gig" jobs that don't pay anything like a living wage or healthcare coverage, in fact if you drive an Uber car for a couple hours a month you've "created" a new job. (And even many of the few full-time jobs being created are going to imported cheap labor H-1B visa workers treated like indentured servants on nearly slave wages.)
I've been an engineering professor for decades, if the US economy and labor market are so great, why are even my top grads now-- often with years of work and internship experience in college-- sending out 1000's of resumes over many months, and hearing nothing back? 15 years ago, even the bottom quartile of my students were getting high-paying job offers even before graduation! (In fact, my students who emigrate from the US-- to European countries like Germany, Holland or France, or to hot Asian economies-- are the only ones getting solid jobs good enough to raise families, and they're staying.)
There's a US employment crisis in reality, but we need to stop with the rose-colored stats to see it.
47
The NYT was a cheerleader for the recoveryunder Obama. A key component of that economy was the "gig economy". They can't start criticizing that facet just yet. But give 'em time.
We have a massive skills gap problem, not an unemployment problem,
Here in eastern Massachusetts we cannot find enough people with the skills needed to fill existing openings. The Great Recession has created a massive skills gap. Well paying jobs go unfilled because we stopped training people during the Recession. Ten years of not training up our workforce is now going to choke off our economy. We are about to hit our ceiling for growth. We should have been investing in our human infrastructure during the Recession. Now we have too many good jobs unfilled and an over abundance of low skilled labor depressing wages at the low end. No way to run an economy.
20
@Shend
Thank the Tea Party for that.
After nine years of exemplary service, my 60 year-old sister's final pay at the bank in Kansas where she worked was $12 an hour. A right to work state, Kansas does nothing for the rights and well-being of workers. Employee health insurance? Give me a break. Paid vacation or maternity leave? Not in Kansas. Employment opportunities for the those over 50? Unh-unh. Now multiply that situation by the number of states that do everything for corporations and nothing for employees and your robust economy is skating on extremely thin ice. See you at the bottom when it comes crashing down.
42
An important issue, as some have pointed out, is the low labor participation rate of prime working-age (25-55) men. From the 50’s through the 70’s, the participation rate for this cohort was roughly 7%, about 2-3% over the unemployment rate. This measure has now grown to 14%, 10% above the the current unemployment rate.
This may be one of the contributors to the unexpected economic outcomes. And it’s certainly an issue that needs more attention. The unemployment rate is now accurate for 90% of us.
4
Based on the US labor participation rate which has fallen for 11 years there are an unaccounted 9 million adults of working age that are NOT being counted in the unemployment numbers. Bringing these people into the unemployment figures ~doubles the % unemployed.
11
This is simply untrue. What quality of jobs are we creating? How many of them have benefits, or pay a decent wage, or are even full-time? They're contract, outsourced, contingent, freelance, temp or alternative work.
These are extremely misleading reports and statements, and they don't reflect the true state of employment - underemployment - for so many Americans. I even wrote an op-ed to NYTimes about this very subject.
22
Ok, let's look at reality, a continuation of eight yrs. of Obama, Trump has not governed long enough to make a difference.
The ominous signs that Neil does not elaborate on.
1-A trade war that can be disastrous (although I say the free trader Trump will end it with a few bones before election day and claim he is the greatest president since Lincoln.
2-A massive deficit increase of a trillion dollars over the short term to pay for the corporation welfare tax cut.
3-Stagnant wage growth with standard of living falling behind inflation.
4-A war against illegal immigrants that will eventually hurt the economy tremendously.
5-Fracking boom that will self implode soon, sending gasoline prices sky high.
7
This just goes to show what can be done by irresponsibly reducing tax rates during an expansion, and printing money and selling debt to keep the government from default. Any bozo can do this in the short run, but someday somebody is going to have to pay the interest on that debt, and unfortunately it will likely be the Democrats who will be left to pick up the pieces when Trump is voted out of office.
5
@William Nelson President Trump’s brilliant tax cuts and deregulation created the current economic boom from the malaise President Trump inherited from Obama. Obama’s irresponsible doubling of the national debt is treason!
1
This column is disingenuous at best. The REAL unemployment rate in September was 7.5% - that's the percentage of the labor force that's underemployed, or have looked for work in the past year but not the past four weeks, or have given up altogether. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes that figure - the U-6 - along with the prettier U-3 every month, and of course the media, including the "Newspaper of Record" all glom onto the prettier figure.
Additionally, the jobless rates for adult men, teenagers,
Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics "showed little or no change over
the month."
What the media should also be reporting, along with the true unemployment rate, is the labor force participation rate - in September it was 62.7%. That's the labor force divided by the total working age population (15-64 years old). That figure was stagnant, meaning the jobs market hasn't really improved - including for prime-age workers (25-54 years old).
Also stagnant is the number of long-term jobless - 1.4 million Americans. The BLS in July reported, "Among all OCED regions, prime-age participation rates for men in the United States ranked 23rd out of 33 countries in 1996, and fell to 31st in 2016."
Stagnation, not improvement - and that goes for pay as well, since corporations are keeping the money for their executives and stockholders and spending a huge chunk of change for stock buybacks.
And that's the REAL story. It's way past time for the Times to report it.
20
I would like to see the REAL unemployment numbers, especially for older, minority and female workers. Exactly where are all these jobs? I have a 64 year old college educated relative who has been looking for a job (ANY job) ever since she was laid off ten months ago from a large healthcare company. She has applied for nearly 200 jobs, most of which she never heard back from. The few places where she interviewed offered pay barely half of what she was making before and of course, no benefits. Even so, she still has not been hired. Good thing her husband is still working and making a good salary. He will also get a pension when he retires. Otherwise, she'd be in real trouble.
12
Anyone who truly wants to work and has the basic skills, or no skills for that matter, can find a job now! Don’t even have to speak English either for many jobs.
It is time to say “thank you mister President for MAGA!”
6
This is simply not true: it can be very difficult to get hired, even with lots of experience and skills. I have known many people, young and old, who have been unable to get hired. There are all kinds of unspoken variables at work in who does and doesn’t get hired. What our country needs is a job guarantee for everyone who needs or just wants a job. And the job also should be a good fit with the seeker-or everyone is miserable.
2
@Moe Def = most deaf. How little are you willing to work for?
What is the corresponding status of WAGES?
When last I looked wages paid to the hourly worker have been pretty much stagnant for the past 40 or so years. Hourly wages certainly have not kept up with the ever rising expense of basic housing...
From a university “reunion seminar” not too long ago:
Historians, economists and sociologists will point to the period from 1945 to 1980 as being the high water mark of the American middle and working classes as well as being an aberration in America’s social and economic history. Eventually, those workers will have died off, ending living memories of a “golden age”.
8
The middle class began losing wealth in 1973. But don't let that fact stand in the way of a good polemic.
1
Please stop writing sentences like "the last time the jobless rate was lower, you have to go back to when Richard Nixon was in the White House...." It leaves the false impression that there is a direct, or strong direct, line between presidential action and the movement of the economy. It is one reason we may be penalized in November with continued Republican leadership.
At best a President can make life less regulated for preferred special interests (generally, like coal companies, real estate developers, and other generous donors). And they can lead Congress to take action which can significantly impact the economy (like create a New Deal or engage in 2 ineffective wars at once).
But most likely they ride on the roller coaster that private industry drives - with its own incentives.
8
Two points:
1. The median wage is a dubious measure because the composition of the labor force is constantly changing. For example, suppose everyone made exactly the same wage as before, but employers also hired a large number of unskilled workers. The 'average wage' would drop, even though everyone who was working is still making the same wage, and workers who didn't have a job now have one. It would be better to measure 'same worker salary' year over year.
2. Yes, a lot of people are 'not in the labor force'. In impoverished countries, everyone from age 8 to age 90 toils 12 hours a day to scratch out a subsistence. Here in the US, however, we are so rich that many people aged 16-64 don't have to work, and everyone can still live better than in most countries. People can stay in school until they're 25 or 30, women can stay at home to take care of their kids, affluent older people can retire early. Yes, some people are struggling, but it's not all bad.
6
@Jonathan,
Nice! Maybe along with the median wage we should expect to know the standard deviation, as well? People would quickly learn how to digest that.
2
@Charles Becker - I would be better to do a longitudinal study of a selected sample. You could take a couple of thousand workers spread out across all the census tracts and track their W2 income from year to year.
@Jonathan
LOL. The great United States of America, indispensable nation, light unto the world, now measures itself against impoverished third world nations. My how the mighty have fallen.
The more important number these days is wages. The problem lies in the fact that wage increases are inflationary and they eventually leads to higher interest rates which leads to a recession. Rather that say the numbers are unequivocally good, one should look at them as anther step toward the next recession. Let's hope the good times last long enough to help people rebuild the finances that were destroyed in 2008. The income/wealth gap is also something that needs to be addressed regardless of how well the economy is doing.
5
Mr. Irwin, raw numbers are great. What about demographics? What percentage of the population over 40 is unemployed? How many workers over 50 can't find work? Ageism is at work in the US and why don't you cover that story?
19
The unemployment rate is not a positive thing, and those basing rosy expectations on it are mistaking the trees for the forest. You have to understand the demographics behind the labor participation rate, and they point to steep declines in the participation rate and earnings gains for minimum 8 years. Remember the employers all puffed up, whining that they can’t find skilled employees? Soon, they will all be grateful for warm, sober bodies when the opioid epidemic hits home. Families have spun off far fewer children in the last 30 years, and there simply is no promise in the participation rate. Some say don’t look a gift horse in the mouth, but I say one more such gift and we are lost. (Pyrrhus)
2
Trump derangement syndrome in full display in the comment section.
14
Commenters - We get it. You know lots of people who have low paying jobs, and gig -economy jobs, and student debt, and gave up looking for work. No one is disputing that.
The article is simply stating that the job growth numbers, as reported, are positive when averaged with August. And that there's no sign of inflation, also a positive. That's it. Your anecdotal evidence just isn't that relevant.
16
@max
These numbers are worse than the 2015 numbers that he called "terrible".
That's the real problem with this article.
7
Man, does that tax cut Kool-Aid taste good.
10
I'm tired of the intellectual dishonesty of the Unemployment Rate. Especially given the vast numbers of people who voluntarily left the job market during the Great Recession, the real market indicator is the Participation Rate. It would be nice if the NYT would at least report that number.
7
After the late '70's BOTH parties found it was easier to lie about things like unemployment, inflation and GNP than actually DO something.
Shadowstats and other sites calculating these numbers show far different statistics.
Unemployment has remained near 1930's Great Depression levels since 2008, earnings have declined and inflation is far higher than reported.
2
Let's get a follow up to this in 6 months when just 2 alone....
TWO
...corporate mergers will eliminate tens of thousands of jobs.
Still no solution on health care, which we should rename "GoFundMe Care" an unprecedented explosion of the deficit due to a tax cut flowing most to those that don't need it and on the top, new welfare programs to compensate for trade tariffs all to go with it.
So great...but the bill is tallying up and will be put on the table soon.
4
Wow, President Obama's economy is really picking up steam now! Thanks Obama!
7
@Henry B how thoughtful of Obama to time his economic boom for after he left office!
In reality, the booming economy is due solely to President Trump’s tax cuts and cutting Obama’s orgy of mindless job-killing regulations.
1
I don’t know of a single person who is better off now than before Trimp economics. Plain folks who work hard and pay their taxes are not sharing in the “good news.”
4
I guess it’s a good thing that job numbers are “pretty good,” when you consider that you need 2 or 3 jobs to scratch out a living in America.
Just because corporations are making money hand over fist doesn’t mean the economy is “good.” What’s good for corporate America is rarely good for the rest of us.
5
And Trump will take credit for all of it and the media will let him. The second the economy tanks (and it will because it's based on the sugar high of the trillion dollar tax cuts and amoral, environmentally destructive deregulation) Trump will blame Obama and the media will not say one word to object.
5
What kinds of jobs are being created? Are they paying a living wage? What percentage are seasonal? What sectors are doing well? I have a friend with a major skill set in computers and he has been unemployed for 5 years. He has tried to get jobs within and without his field. Luckily he worked at a Starbucks for a while, so when he had a major health issue, he had insurance coverage. He is now homeless and suicidal. This 'robust' economy isn't doing him any favors. It's only 'robust' for the ultra rich who got major tax cuts, at the expense of our national debt. (Remember when Republicans railed against deficit spending? Ha Ha.) Wages are stagnant as the cost of living has soared. That is not a robust economy; it is a recipe for disaster.
13
The price of a barrel of oil has doubled since the 2016 election.
Tariffs will soon be trckling down to the price of goods.
Thanks to massive tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, the deficit is exploding.
As a further result, funding for federal programs (other than the military, farm subsidies, internment camps, et alia) are unavailable - kiss much-needed infrastructure repair and improvement goodbye.
The average employer’s cost of health care benefits for a worker and her family is right around $20,000 per year, and that is for high-deductible insurance that requires the worker to shell out $3,000 per year before coverage kicks in.
While corporate after-tax profits soar 16% in one year, wages creep along at the rate of inflation, about 2.8%.
As for those job growth figures, they are actually a tad lower since Trump’s inauguration than during the last two years of the Obama administration.
Where’s that economic miracle you were talking about?
This seems to be nothing more than mass hypnosis. It’s along the same lines as the NAFTA flim flam - repackage what was already in NAFTA and revisions already in the works during the Obama administration —and already written into the TPP you just threw away. Then toss in a few subsidies for already Trump-happy interest groups. Shout ‘it’s new! it’s improved! it slices! it dices! it delivers your pizza and gets rid of unwanted facial hair!’
Then celebrate Fearless Leader’s big beautiful victory.
Snake oil still sells.
12
No, the economy is in terrible shape, the only way we can correct it is by making Trump president-for-life (and passed on to his heirs) and get all the Democrats out of the government. Once those things happen, the economy will be perfect. If you don't believe me, just ask Trump and his supporters.
3
Please quit bombarding us with baloney.
It is well established that the "unemployment" number touted by the government does not include participation rates. People that can't find jobs that pay enough to be worth taking just quit looking. Wage increases of 2.8% are roughly the same as inflation, no increase at all.
The claims that there are a significant number of well paid jobs that are opening up contradicts the low wage rate increases. Unless, however, a major number of the new jobs are bottom of the barrel low paid service jobs.
Tell the whole story or nothing at all. Whole truth and nothing but the truth. Government statistics provide the needed data. Just report it!
7
The Trump regime has done a lot of damage but at least it has not been able to derail the Obama economic recovery.
2
An important takeaway after the correction at the end of the article: inflation is 2.7 percent, wages rose 2.8 percent -- net 0.1 percent rise in hourly wages. This is the hidden not-so-good part of the economy. Although Target, and now Amazon, are raising wages to $15 an hour, the official minimum wage is $7.25 an hour, which is officially nearly poverty level, and in practice poverty level across the country. A "job" doesn't mean much if it doesn't help the job holder to live a sustainable life.
8
Mr Irwin --
Your reporting makes you a collaborator in the Trump decimation of working and middle class Americans. The current GOP policies, deregulation, and massive tax cuts to the wealthy and to corporations, do lead to this nice top line overall "unemployment" number, but as numerous readers have pointed out, this does not account for quality of jobs, benefits, or even the labor participation rate. Nor does it acknowledge the simple fact that the tax-cut stimulus is now the creator of a deficit which will be the lever to attack our social safety net. Nor does it acknowledge the devastating and real ECONOMIC impact of massive ecological damage. The simple minded reporting and headline writing makes your work part of the disinformation campaign that may, horrifyingly, keep these kakistocrats and kleptocrats in power. Please think twice and again.
8
If the unemployment figures are as low as the statistics (if they are to be believed), then why is Trump so obsessed with bringing jobs back to
America, there will not be enough people to fill the vacancies. The only way these vacancies will be filled is by mass immigration and apparently this is something he is not too keen on!
2
How "great!" are these jiggered statistics for job seekers aged 50+?
Why does nobody talk about age discrimination in America's workplaces?
Try doubling the artificially low 'official' employment numbers for a clear-eyed view of how many aspiring workers are being left out of this "great!" job market.
8
I work in an office where a TV is blaring CNBC's incessant market reporting all day and have only recently become aware of just how divorced from reality market-watchers are from the everyday experience of wage workers like myself. There's certainly the hype incentive in all of this kind of reporting, including with Mr. Irwin.
Most middle class people are under constant stress. Few middle class people are generating significant income from stock or equity ownership growth.
Huge numbers of people dropped out of the job force after 2008, never returned, and economists continue to want to treat those numbers as somehow a different story.
This article belies simple 'news' or 'novelty' bias. it's like touting historical sports numbers as though they are perfect stand-ins for last night's playoff games in baseball.
When is the reporting of economic indicators going to shape up and include equivalent, real time numbers on poverty growth, family stress and wage-cost-of-living differentials?
17
@masayaNYC how do you measure family stress feelings?
@Branch
Rates of Alcoholism, Opioid Addiction, and Suicides among vulnerable populations.
2
I am pleased with the employment rate. The income must rise and Trump is not allowed to presume credit for Obama’s yeoman work in bringing the economy back from the great Recession.
6
@DENOTE MORDANT
You will never give Trump credit for anything, totally discredited! Obama preached our decline, Trump like Reagan promised a better future. Never bring up Obamas failures only hold to the creed that he saved us...yes with the help of his Citibank cronies, how many went to jail? What happened to all the stimulus money. What happened to all the tort victims whose suits were dismissed by Obama under the ruse that it was needed to save jobs. Look at the facts, stop resistance while you drive your Audi to work.
3
This is fake news! The rosy job numbers that Neil Irwin extols in no way describe the economic plight of vast numbers of Americans: young people saddled with college debt, older workers facing age discrimination, those in the gig economy with no benefits and no job security, and for most Americans wage stagnation that leaves them struggling to make ends meet and with no savings.
The Times does us no favors publishing such reports without a necessary qualification: a job today simply is not worth as much as it was a generation ago. Too many people today simply cannot get ahead. They can barely keep their heads above water.
33
@Ron Cohen Add to that - my 2009 dollars don't buy much at 2018 prices .
Mr Irwin: Please avoid sweeping statements like "It’s the latest piece of evidence that 2018 is set to be the best year for the United States economy in quite a long time" that are based on limited pieces of data. Private sector wage increases of 2.8% when consumer prices are rising 2.7% are not worth doing back flips about. Given many working Americans still quality for gov't safety net programs there is a long way to go. The most positive recent news is Amazon's new $15 base wage.
Regarding 1969 - we had half a million men in Vietnam and many more employed in defense supporting that effort when many women did not work or were considered seeking work - so yes that was low unemployment. Yet, was inflation then and in the 1970s really due to higher wages? Or the other way around? That calls for a closer examination.
10
This certainly seems like the best year for the U.S. economy, maybe in my lifetime (and I'm 52). Unemployment at record low levels, strong growth, low inflation. Which year do you think was better than 2018 for the U.S. economy? It's a serious question.
6
@JTCheek Many in the late 1990s. 1996.
@RamS the unemployment rate in 1996 was 5.4 percent, approximately 50 percent higher than the probable 2018 rate. Inflation was similar and growth a bit higher. I’ll take today’s data.
1
What's remarkable about these jobs numbers is how little they reflect how Americans actually feel about where things are headed in this country. With such strong economic indicators, you'd expect a majority of Americans to feel positive about the direction of America. Yet by a 57-36 margin (Economist/YouGov poll), a strong majority of Americans believe we are headed in the wrong direction.
Clearly, then, there is something profoundly disquieting happening here that mere numbers cannot accurately quantify. Perhaps it is time to take a step back and remember that a society that would presume to measure its "success" only through a narrow prism of what success means is a society that is missing the forest for the trees.
I know many people who are working, have some money in their pockets and who have acquired many of the trappings of success. I don't know many people who truly seem to be at peace with themselves, and with the country in which they live.
And that is a tragedy.
15
For all this praise (and hurrah for lower unemployment), the Employment-Population Ratio is 60.3%, which is still 3 percent below an employment peak in the first quarter of 2007. In short, three percent of the labor market no longer counts when calculating unemployment numbers.
12
The ratio of active portion of the population is the real indicator of performance of the economy now.
1
I attribute a lot of this to many early retirees who were able to stop working due to the passage of the Affordable Care Act which ensures that everyone who wants health insurance can obtain it. I have many friends that retired earlier than age 65 because they were not worried about getting health insurance through their employers. This is an often overlooked benefit of the ACA. You don't have to have a job to get health insurance.
3
It's remarkable how easily you can stimulate the economy with a >trillion dollar tax cut. Unfortunately, deficit spending in a time of general prosperity is a sucker's game. Employers are hiring, but eventually the piper will have to be paid for this sugar high from the stimulus.
Ironically, the Republicans wouldn't approve the full stimulus that Obama wanted when we were in the throes of recession and needed it. Now they have flipped for a Republican President and love the stimulus that we don't need.
Interest rates are already rising. Who knows where they will go.
42
@Charley Darwin
What stimulus?
All of that reverse robin hood 0.1% tax break money is being used by corporate overlords to buy back stocks. Or it's being added to the trillions already offshored beyond reach of the IRS.
I don't feel financially stimulated yet. Do you?
3
Pay is stagnating for most Americans.
It costs money to get to work. Being underpaid is not a solution; dead-end jobs often leave an exhausted American too tired to make the effort to find a better position. The result is debt. Someone else makes money off the debt.
Prices have gone up or are going up for many basic necessities, such as gasoline, laundry detergent, winter clothes, winter medicines, healthier meals.
Trump's trade wars are hurting many people. There is less money left to buy essentials. There will be less money for the average household to spend on holiday festivities, as well.
There is more hostility than ever within families, workplaces, schools & international bodies. Much of that hostility has been whipped up by the outrageous pronouncements of Trump & Co.
And the 10-year yield on US Treasuries? A feverish 3.24% at this writing... I remember when, just months ago, we were being reassured that it would not cross the 3.0% barrier.
All is far from rosy. Although, of course, those who find themselves employed are relieved of panic-inducing unemployment.
It's much too soon to relax.
12
You've got to be kidding me!
"The state of the Economy" depends on many numbers; and one can pick and choose those -- what you want to "feel" and imagine. Many persons in this country live paycheck to paycheck and have a practically no money on hand or saved. Mahy cannot afford health care; they don't have access to it. Paychecks have remained stagnant for decades for millions. We all can see and read about the huge disparity in wealth in this country. Mr. Irwin should get another job where he can report the truth, the whole truth and nothing...............
25
@Frank
"Mr. Irwin should get another job where he can report the truth, the whole truth and nothing............."
It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.
Where were all these doom and gloom commenters when Obama was President and the economy was growing. Trump Derangement Syndrome methinks.
8
@Nyalman Are you kidding? All we heard from the Right for 8 years while the economy was growing under Obama was doom and gloom.
2
I wonder how Neil would feel if this job was eliminated and he faced the age discrimination rampant for the rest of us? What a total reporting miss. I'm sure he has outstanding benefits, in addition to a very nice salary.
14
Thanks Obama
11
Interesting that Irwin seems to be bending over backwards to make an even rosier picture. Remember how we kept hearing about the underemployed and the 'true' unemployment rate (usually double the reported rate) during the Obama years? Is that not a thing anymore? It seemed back then that the glass was always half-full. Now, not so much.
14
@Norman Bucknor
He's known for this, here's some evidence:
Here's the headline from September 2015, under Obama, when the economy added 142,000 jobs:
"What the Terrible September Jobs Report Means for the Economy"
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/upshot/what-the-terrible-september-jo...
Compare this to the headline when the economy, under Trump, gains only 100,000 jobs:
"The March Jobs Numbers Show the Economy Is Sound, but Far From Invincible"
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/upshot/what-the-terrible-september-jo...
Now this headline when the economy, under Trump, gains only 134,000 jobs:
"Even the Seemingly Disappointing Job Creation Numbers Are Actually Pretty Great"
5
'The new leadership of the Federal Reserve has played down the value of relying on some estimate of the “natural rate” of unemployment below which inflation is inevitable, and the data this year seems to affirm the caution.'
What the Fed should be examining is not the unemployment figure but the share of national income going to workers. Because that share is historically low now, low unemployment isn't driving inflation. Companies and stockholders are reaping more of the rewards, and their spending doesn't drive inflation as much because the hoard or invest the money. They're not spending it all on groceries, gas, and rent.
16
Thanks Obama!
11
So we have a robust economy. Really?
How much income gain has the working class made over the past year? Over the past decade? How much more secure are workers feeling about their jobs? How satisfied are workers with their jobs/employers?
If more people are working does that mean workers are getting a better share of the economic gains? Or do what we really have is more people working harder, longer and still not getting a fair share of profits.
Until it is shown that workers are getting a decent share of profits, I disagree that adding more jobs should be described as reflecting a "robustness of the economy;" it is just an increase in the rate of slavery.
28
84% of the current drop in the unemployment rate occurred under Obama
19
@Marion Grace Merriweather
Yes, Obama bailed out the bankers rather than prosecute them and brought on the gig economy with its low wage, insecure, no health benefits jobs which are now being heralded under Trump. And Ronald Reagan went after the air traffic controllers union, beginning an all-out war on labor unions. And Bill Clinton deregulated his way to the top and brought us banker-corporate inspired trade deals that have been supported by every president since (including, despite his claims to the contrary, Trump). And George Bush brought us into an illegal war that has cost the taxpayers over a trillion dollars and Obama continued and expanded the wars and now so does Trump.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
I'm so sick of reading articles praising how good the economy is currently. People are working for slave wages, from paycheck to paycheck, and in many cases working 2 jobs.
The only people benefiting are the wealthy and Big Business.
Please quit trying to convince the average American that they should grateful for for the present economy
33
Sorry bud, forward guidance wasn't good. Tariff pumping inflated the numbers and it started to come off in September. I suspect weaker months ahead. The U-3 was also 3.8% without Florence.
4
The job improvement was started by President Obama. Since Trump came in we have had many more jobs going to his friends in China and Mexico. We get low wage jobs. Yesterday 44,000 Verizon employees are being laid off. The report said 5,000 jobs are going to India. The only jobs he brought back were the coal which is a destroying our climate. We have 85 temps weeks at a time in south Delaware where it is 18 degrees above normal in October. It should be 72 degrees. With Trump and friends in gas prices are so high it will be a lousy Christmas for many. At least the Democrats would open the oil reserves to bring the prices lower. The Republicans are oil men and get money from the oil companies so they have no reason to open the reserves. Greed running rampant every time you stop at the pumps. Remember that November 6th at the polls.
16
These unemployment figures are misleading.
They don't include:
- People who have stopped looking for work;
- People who work the equivalent of one day a week, more or less: they don't make enough money to subsist that way;
- The enormous number of incarcerated people: Both in raw numbers and by percentage of the population, the United States has the most prisoners of any developed country in the world — and it has the largest total prison population of any nation. https://thinkprogress.org/the-united-states-has-the-largest-prison-popul...
20
@jw
This is true.
The labor participation rate, cited by both parties as the "real" unemployment rate has actually worsened under this President.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
14
So the only measure of a robust economy is the unemployment rate? People can get jobs now; that's great! But when will they be able to get their heads above water? When will they get some long overdue raises before the economy slows down again and all pressure for wage increases vanishes?
Profits are way up, the stock market is way up, but there is *no* improvement in wages which just keep up with inflation. Yet Neil paints this as a *good* thing:
"In the latest numbers, private sector hourly wages have risen 2.8 percent over the last year, which is down a bit from the August number and offers no hint of a spiral of wages and prices."
The 2.8%, of course, is no higher than inflation.
I'm happy our economy is generating jobs. I'm increasingly worried that it's not producing an increasingly improving life for the workers who have those jobs. That is the big story now which this article completely misses.
26
@Marc
I agree, wages really fell back this month. Without Florence, they would have ebbed down a bit more and will be a -in October. You can't have these wages and say your in "full employment". NAIRU has crashed to 3% obviously.
3
Wage growth has been nearly non-existent for 20 yrs and any growth we might see now will be eaten up when the fed raises interest rates.
YAY everyone is employed - for barely MIN WAGE!!!.
Welcome to the race to the bottom. Maximum Corporate Profit fro the 1% - Minimum wages and benefits for the rest of us.
23
@michellenyc
Nope, Wage growth has been better the last 20 years than the 20 years before. Mainly due to the "double top boom of 97-07", but you get the drift.
@michellenyc
It's been nonexistent for going on 40 years.
The media needs to stop crowing about the economy and employment. Most Americans are working harder for less — less money, less security, less time off, less certainty, less benefits. Americans know this economy isn’t working for them — even if they are technically employed.
23
USA's labor participation rate is still at neoliberal era all time low (62.7%). https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate
Unless the Americans are turning into Japan, that's very bad news, since it will put pressure on labor.
9
@VK
It was 62.8% without Florence. That I would caution.
Amazing a positive view from the NYT. Now the data collection system is very poor, use the social security database on a quarterly basis only for all the data to be much better.
1
If employers in United States use autonomy instead of those inaccurate rate for percentages to the economy.
Economy doing well? Thanks, Obama!
15
@John Ha Ha, if your economy is doing well you could thank Obama, for the US thank our current president since Obama expected 2% forever, no return for manufacturing, and things in trade to be us buying more. Only Obama thanks himself.
8
@vulcanalex Trump inherited a growing economy with near full unemployment. Obama inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression that he helped guide to recovery without the sugar high of a trillion dollar tax cut and environmentally, fiscally irresponsible deregulation. Thanks Obama.
1
There is nothing wrong with this country that a sustained, calamitous drop in the Dow Jones average cannot begin to repair.
Market Summary > Dow Jones Industrial Average
INDEXDJX: .DJI
26,361.55 −265.93 (1.00%) -- TODAY
5
More people forced to work for slave wages. Hurray.
56
@Joe B.
LOL!
Go to Mexico, Afghanistan, India, Burma.
There you will find the actual definition of 'slave wages'.
In fact, move there. Then you can actually have some substance to what you say; I do not know where Center City is located, but am sure it is not in any of these countries, but write a post card and tell us what 'slave wages' actually look like.
I know, I have been there. Try it, you won't forget the experience, trust me.
1
Beware the wisdom of Irwin’s last sentence.
3
Think how much better it could be for the average family - wage growth, health benefits and even more employment in towns still depressed and stagnant…
If…
- tax policy favored the middle class instead of the wealthiest
- corporations were willing (or legally bound) to share more of their current horde of cash with employees (profit sharing) in the form of higher wages and health/retirement benefits
- the nation embarked on a smart, comprehensive infrastructure renewal which reversed our downward spiral of bad roads, bridges, transit, utility grids (you wanna be a third world nation instead?)
- we solved two problems at once:
1) transform our energy capacity to renewable - sun, wind, water, maximum efficiency electric grid and buildings… all powered internally with solar panels and batteries installed by the millions to store power. All designed and produced by Americans.
2) reap the benefits this would have on our economy, people, national pride AND simultaneously address climate change pollution
(Little secret: what's good for America is great for the environment)
Nice goals for a great nation.
Good for our people, our environment, our soul.
All made less likely by:
- big money that corrupts our politics so that wealth and greed prevail
- rigged congressional districts & voting curbs that pervert majority rule
- courts stacked with conservatives who legitimize unpopular policies
Like a hand over all our mouths as we scream.
Justice Kavanaugh.
39
Doesn't the low unemployment rate also speak to a tightening labor market and the need to BOOST immigration rates in order to fill the jobs that are being created? Looking at you Donald Trump, Steven Miller, and others who have their boot heels on immigrants seeking to come to the US.
2
@gigi
I’m not sure this low unemployment rate means there should necessarily be policies to boost immigration. Many recent economic surveys have highlighted the millions of people who have ‘chosen’ not to participate in the labour market. I think employers should be forced to work harder at enticing these people back into the workforce through enhanced pay and benefits packages, BEFORE they have an automatic get out clause of recruiting people from overseas either directly, or indirectly through higher immigration.
4
@gigi No it does not, folks working in fast food (some) can be replaced with automation freeing them up for more valuable and higher paying jobs. We are already over populated in the US, we need no new low capability people. ZERO!!!
4
Think how much better it could be for the average family - wage growth, health benefits and even more employment in towns still depressed and stagnant…
If…
- tax policy favored the middle class instead of the wealthiest
- corporations were willing (or legally bound) to share more of their current horde of cash with employees (profit sharing) in the form of higher wages and health/retirement benefits
- the nation embarked on a smart, comprehensive infrastructure renewal which reversed our downward spiral of bad roads, bridges, transit, utility grids (you wanna be a third world nation instead?)
- we solved two problems at once:
1) transform our energy capacity to renewable - sun, wind, water, maximum efficiency electric grid and buildings… all powered internally with solar panels and batteries installed by the millions to store power. All designed and produced by Americans.
2) reap the benefits this would have on our economy, people, national pride AND simultaneously address climate change pollution
(Little secret: what's good for America is great for the environment)
Nice goals for a great nation.
Good for our people, our environment, our soul.
All made less likely by:
- big money that corrupts our politics so that wealth and greed prevail
- rigged congressional districts & voting curbs that pervert majority rule
- courts stacked with conservatives who legitimize unpopular policies
Like a hand over all our mouths as we scream.
Justice Kavanaugh.
7
Thank you, President Obama (and Ben Bernanke) for saving the US (and probably the world) from a second Great Depression and for launching the economic recovery that continues to this day.
President Obama, as is your wont, you took far too little credit.
President Trump, as is your impulse, you take far too much credit (and add too much debt).
11
This is great news. I propose we cancel the $12 billion going to welfare farmers. If nobody is buying their soy beans, they should easily be able to go out and find another job.
78
I suppose we can cancel everyone’s welfare check while we’re at it.
Understanding the state of the economy by parsing job and “unemployment” numbers is as effective as “reading” wet tea leaves in the bottom of a cup. There are dwindling numbers of winners in our economy regardless of what obsolete data points suggest. Rather than championing useless data, it is time for this paper to dig a little deeper and have more front page stories about how corporate hegemony is nearly complete.
13
What about the huge homeless populations on the West Coast? Explain, please, ye data masters.
13
@Brent - They are not working, and have no interest in working. So they are not unemployed, from the point of view of the BLS.
1
Seriously, the Times has to do a far better job in getting at what's behind these numbers, or we will never be able to expose and solve the serious problem of underemployment. If we don't do that, politicians and corporations will be able to use this type of information as cover for the failure of not providing decent-paying full-time jobs with health insurance and retirement benefits. Everyone KNOWS that all jobs are not equal, so why doesn't the Times start getting at the business of getting inside the numbers and talking about the inequality in job creation when the monthly job report comes out? Much better depth of reporting is needed here.
25
@twloughlin Difficult to do with the lousy data collection system, you make a great point otherwise.
2
It is amazing what a $1.5 trillion stimulus can do... and the deficit gets growing by leaps and bounds...
Of course the GOP now has to cut Social Security and Medicare since spending is the problem, not taxes...
11
If these jobs are so great, why are so many men of working age committing suicide?
How many of these jobs allow the worker to save for retirement, raise and educate a family and provide healthcare?
Let's see a graph where the vertical axis plots the number of jobs added and the horizontal axis plots the annual salary.
9
@Henry
Re: "why are so many men of working age committing suicide?"
1) Go to whitehouse.gov
2) Read the word that follows President
3) You're welcome
5
Great?? Wages are still flat (TWO POINT EIGHT PERCENT, not 3.8%). Housing, thus, is still unaffordable. As is higher education. Most of the jobs are still low-paying ones. It's the lowest job growth in a year, and Hurricane Flo making NC and SC miserable is not enough to account for it. Plus, despite the coming bloviation from Trump, it's still just a continuation of the recovery from the Obama administration.
11
Who cares about the job numbers when so many of us do not feel the impact of this so-called great economy? Many of us have to work two jobs just to make the same salaries we made a decade ago.
I think that we are being manipulated by corporations and specifically by those who own papers like the Times. The world is evolving and the US needs to evolve with it. It used to be that a cell phone just made calls, now it is a library, a dictionary and a video player. Consequently, it is not enough just to report numbers anymore, but journalists should be out on the streets feeling the pulse of workers and what the numbers really mean.
McDonalds workers were protesting in many states this past week. People want higher wages. They want their worker rights back. They want to be able to take care of their families and survive. That is the pulse of America. Feel it!!
21
Great news! Thank you president Obama for doing the hard work. If you didn’t have an obstructionist Congress these results would have happened on your watch.
4
134,000 jobs is very good. Given, September is that time when folks are heads-down closing 3Q.
This should reflect increased hiring in 4Q, and maybe the Fed hike in December
The data is all skewed. The gigantic tax cut led to huge benefits for United States businesses. These tax cuts are not free money. Eventually, the United States will have to pay the piper. It is just like carrying a huge debt on a credit card. Rates change and other unforeseen events happen that you have to pay for. If we are unwilling to pay down the debt during a growing economy, what is going to happen when the recession comes? Trump/GOP cannot file for bankruptcy. Are they going to try and bailout their supporters at the big investment banks again? Is Trump going to subsidize every business like he is agriculture and steel at the moment? Wait until next year, when the big businesses do not get another epic handout. And who is going to
1
The reason we are called boomers is because there are a lot of us and we are retiring and dying every day. The numbers are meaningless without context and one context is an ever expanding wealth gap. Another context is for most is that economy is supposed to serve the people and I suspect for too many the economy is to be served rather than serve.
The last time the numbers were this good was 1969 begs the response that the 1960s was the time the average share of the the economic pie by the average worker was its highest and today wealth is the most concentrated.
We really have no way of knowing if this is good news or bad and will only know if the economy suddenly crashes.
10
This is part of an eight-year continuum, not a 623 day miracle. Middle class wages still lag inflation increases. It seems there was a time all the political and social discord we have now would have shot an arrow right through the stock market and other financial institutions. Why hasn’t it? My proffer would be the world of wealth and “investment” is so walled off in a closed system it is completely impervious to the effects of angst we suffer from the sources mentioned. One might ask, “isn’t that a good thing?” I don’t. Angst doesn’t enter, wealth doesn’t exit.
5
It should be noted that the U-6 unemployment rate has been dropping too, to 7.5% now I believe. This category takes into account discouraged workers, those working part time in various ways, those marginally attached to the workforce. So good to see that rate decline - during this 8 year trend - just need to see the participation rate rise some.
1
@Michael Dunne Good point but the 8 year trend was bent upwards when this president was in office, you and others seem to forget that the analysis shows this clearly. Sure Obama was dealt a bad hand, but he played it at best in an average way, not in the better what that say Mitt Romney would have done.
@vulcanalex Not sure what you are trying to say. The Great Recession ran by some accounts from December 2007 to June 2009; and could almost have become a real depression. And surprise, surprise, the U-3 unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October of 2009. When you have a financial bust a la the 1st half of the 20th century, things don't recover easily. And unemployment only slowly declined in the first term - to 7.8% in October of 2012. Unemployment declined by quite a bit between November 2012 and October 2016. Big thing was that the participation rate stayed down, and wages took awhile to start showing a sustained increase of any note.
Hooray, good jobs for everyone! Now there's no reason for undocumented immigrants to be kicked out of the country, correct?
3
@stu freeman Sure there is, first the rule of law, next we are over populated, and finally we don't need more low capability individuals, we need less because we are over populated. Automation can replace them.
2
@vulcanalex: "Rule of law?": Ever spend a night in jail for jaywalking? Overpopulation?: Alaska? North Dakota? An aging population requires more younger folks to be paying into Social Security as well as contributing to the economy as consumers. "Low capability individuals?": Why not rid ourselves of every American citizen who drops out of school and drinks or shoots up their public assistance checks? (Undocumented immigrants are not eligible for public assistance and, anyway, who's going to take on those low-paying agricultural, factory and home attendant jobs that can't be replaced by automation?)
How many of those jobs are
1. permanent
2. pay decent wages
3. have benefits
4. paying more than entry level wages when more advanced levels of work are expected
These levels mean nothing to someone who is past the prime employment age, still needs to work, is well qualified, and cannot find a job. The answer is not telling us to retrain. In IT age discrimination is rampant. Companies want 25 year old employees with 30 years experience. There is no interest in training or hiring experienced people. I know. I've sent out hundreds of resumes, received very few responses and even fewer interviews.
At those interviews, which went well, I was able to answer all the questions. I was well qualified. Yet the outcome has been no job offer or worse, no response at all.
I'm working on a 3 month contract now. and it took me over a year of being unemployed to get this. There are no promises of it lasting longer. How am I and others supposed to save for retirement, plan for the future, pay for health care, pay our bills and the rent/mortgage if we don't have a steady source of income?
Despite the low unemployment rate fewer people are working than ever. Therefore this rate means nothing unless you are a politician. America has failed its citizens when it comes to jobs, health care, and economic security. Our blind allegiance to capitalism has made this possible. What will we do as fewer people find work that pays enough to keep body and soul together: shoot the rest?
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@hen3ry You are not alone. I have a friend who is older who is in the exact same predicament. Please don't give up though, we need you guys!
Our society is wasting valuable knowledge, and we younger employees don't get to learn from substantially more experienced colleagues when we're starting out. We're also missing out on the perspective of older non-digital natives when it comes to developing technology. (To be fair, older people who work in tech are generally just as savvy as younger ones, but they still have a better sense of what resonates with their peers.)
14
@NYT Reader the worst part of this is that we are penalized for the one thing we cannot control: getting older and more experienced.
I have fond memories of listening to my older co-workers discussing office events, how they were handled, etc. I also appreciated the time they took to train me. I would have no problem paying that forward if I was given the opportunity. And I love to learn new things even though I'm nearly 60 years old.
3
@hen3ry Right on. Your 4 points shd be at the top of every NYT story on jobs reports. Why aren't they, for Pete's sake?
Yes, what are the median earnings changes, if any? And how many are still underemployed?
And what are industries/occupations with the highest job growth? It’s likely retail and food service, which traditionally mean lower wages and lesser chance for advancement.
People need wages beyond the minimum and they need a career pathway. These low unemployment numbers may be great, but they may also be giving us a false sense of success.
19
When will we address the fact that we have replaced many well-paid jobs with mediocre and part-time jobs? When will we start talking about the impacts of Automation and a Universal Basic Income? When will we discuss older, experienced workers being replaced with inexpensive, inexperienced workers? Who will the 1% sell their stuff to when the middle class dies and disappears?
Other western countries are addressing these challenges while we are mired in politics and stalemate.
28
@Frank Walker
And when will we address the fact the Bloomberg just ranked us 54 out of 56 countries for Healthcare Efficiency, mediocre results and outrageous cost?
10
I recall the narrative back during the Obama years that anything under 150k jobs created was not enough to sustain the available workforce and that the unemployment rate is not as important as the participation rate or the underemployment rate. I guess we don't like to talk about those numbers anymore.
34
Not mentioned:
- What wage growth we have seen is being offset by CPI
- Rising interest rates
- Consumer debt levels
- Income inequality continuing to grow
- The drain medical expenses put on household budgets
Irwin does his readers a disservice by not providing the greater context. Until everyone benefits, which will lead to broad-based consumer demand, we will continue to live in a Potemkin Village economy.
37
@Logic Science and Truth
Medical expenses do not enter in the inflation calculation. That's why, even with a 0.1% real wage growth, the average American is getting de facto poorer, not richer (rent, debt and other financial products are also not considered in the inflation calculation).
2
10 months and counting being unemployed as an older worker, with 40 years in IT. There are many people like me out there. I continue to file a bi-weekly report to the Colorado Department of Employment & Labor (unemployment). I will continue to do so, until they tell me not to report. In this way, I am counted as unemployed.
Those who read this, if they can, should do the same thing; if their state lets them, that is. If you exhausted unemployment, and stopped reporting, just start filing bi-weekly reports again. Most, if all now, allow you to do this on-line.
If the government is going to "cook" the numbers each month, then give them something to "cook" with. I suspect, if everyone did, what I suggest, the unemployment rate would be twice what is being reported.
I applied for 170 IT jobs (contract and permanent) that I am fully qualified for; that is an average of about 5 jobs per week, in a narrow area (15 mile radius of home), with an unemployment rate of 2%. Boulder-Longmont is a hi-tech employment hot spot. I am 63, have Aspergers, and guess what? I am not a good "fit". About good 60% of these applications were to city, county state, and local colleges. Entities that claim to want diversity, and welcome older workers and the disabled.
I applied for Social Security Disability, just to see what will happen; denied. They say I am able bodied to work in IT. I do have some physical issues, as well as Aspergers, so it was valid claim.
Great economy? I think not.
98
@Nick Metrowsky I hear you. I just found a temporary job in IT. So for next 3 months I can pretend to myself that my experience and expertise are important. After that, who knows.
Since I was downsized from an IT job 3 months prior to my 55th birthday life has been precarious. I have kept my end of the bargain with my country. I retrained 20 years ago when jobs in research dried up or went to immigrants who companies could underpay. I didn't stay at home and cry or expect anyone to do for me. I started over in a new field. It took me 10 years to catch up in terms of salary.
Now I'm going to be 60. All any interviewer sees when they look at my resume or me is older expensive employee not worth hiring. My experience means nothing. I mean nothing. It's not personal but it is because all of us worked hard to become as good as we could be in our fields.
We're being discarded by America. Our businesses and politicians (who never struggled to find a job and have connections we can only dream of) are absent when it comes to solving a problem they created.
Unfortunately unemployed people don't fade away. We still need the basics. Telling us it's our fault doesn't cut it. I hope you find a job. I really do because the alternative is not pretty.
17
@Nick Metrowsky Know how you feel, I am a teacher who has not been able to find a job in the last 3 years. I applied for disability due to congenital heart failure, rejected since so much of my work life was in other countries. No one even calls, I taught for years at Rutgers but I can't get a high school job because I am 57. ......in my area I do see that there are jobs at 7-11 and Panara Bread. I guess we could take on e of those.
6
@Nick Metrowsky Aspergers's? From my research (and being a former chemist), that would probably make you a great fit for many programming jobs. I'm sorry you got discouraged - I did, too. I'm slightly dyslexic. Dyslexia is the flip side of your coin. I think we fell into the "old and a bit different" category.
5
BUT, wage growth still trails the increases in the cost of living. Most Americans are living in a state of anxiety about making ends meet and no certainty or expectation of better days ahead.
Most of us (excluding the 1 and 2-percenters here) are stuck with higher housing costs, less access to reasonably priced capital, more mean-spirited business practices that gouge and nickel and dime us at every turn, and other indignities of not being able to live what we thought was a solid middle class life.
And, thanks to the Republican Tax law/gift to the top of the income pyramid and big business, we can feel bad about our plight for the foreseeable future.
22
I only could wish that in reporting economic news, that someone actually thought about what they were writing, looked at the details. For example, it is good that there isn't rampant inflation, but what that indicates is that either there is a glut of product out there meeting all demand, or demand is low.....and the fact that wages for most people are going up maybe at the rate of inflation is not good news, because wages already are in real dollars less than they were 40 years ago for most people.
And with the new jobs created, as other people pointed out, what kind of jobs are they?What is the median salary of those jobs? Do they have benefits? Or are most of them low wage service sector jobs?
I am sure Trump nation reads this and says "See, Donny knew what he was doing", but if income growth is 2.8% with low unemployement, that means a lot of those jobs are cheap wage jobs, likely with little or no benefits.
10
The U6 unemployment rate is 8.1%. So, there is still a large "reserve army of the unemployed" who can become part of the work force. This is probably one factor in keeping wages down.
It is very good that more people are working. It is not so good if many of them need to rely on food stamps and other government benefits to survive.
15
Wage growth 2.8% not 3.8%. Fact check fact check fact check...
20
@Rich888 - and the CPI increase for August 2017 to August 2018 was 2.7%. Real wages are entirely stagnant.
2
@John Graubard Stats mean nothing, some of that CPI does not effect some people.
@Rich888 Nice catch.
1
These numbers do not reflect the reality I live with. My family is college educated and experienced: yet 3 out of 4 of us belong to the long term unemployed for a variety of reasons. From our experience I know that there is all kinds of bias and discrimination built into the system.
And I also have read that these numbers don't count all the people who have stopped looking for work because of discouragement. That would include me, a female boomer with an Ivy League college degree.
77
Now is the time to get back on the horse and motivate your family to gets jobs again. There are lots of them! Earn it while you can! It will never be this good again. But still, nobody can get you a job except...you!
1
@Anonymous I agree. Being retired is nice and I don't need a job, but if someone wanted me to contribute to their organization using my talents I would do so. And I don't need a high salary, or full time work. It would need to use my professional abilities. Nobody calls even for free.
2
@Anonymous It is also important to look at whether people are happy with the jobs they are in. A college graduate working at Starbucks is employed, but not in a way his education intended. In other words, is this economy creating the right jobs and good paying jobs.
4
We need to stop referencing the unemployment rate, which is a deeply flawed statistic and formula, as if it were the holy standard of the labor market's vitality.
Firstly, if 4 out of 100 people are unemployed, but one of those 4 stops looking for a job, the unemployment rate goes down from 4% to 3.03%. This is not an example of an improving labor market, it sounds more like black magic. This has been a recurring theme over the past decade and consistent feedback from the labor pool.
Secondly, the Labor Force Participation Rate, which measures the total labor force as a % of the working age population, and arguably more accurately captures the true health of the labor market, continues to be near its lowest rate since the 70's, a period of intense economic stagnation. Prior to the '08 financial crisis, this figure was near it's all-time high, meaning we are not even close to being able to say we have returned to a healthy labor market.
Thirdly, wage growth continues to be woefully low and highlights that not every additional job gained is created equal. More so it demonstrates that we have in large part only been able to replace the more high-paying jobs that were lost as a result of the '08 crisis, with lower paying jobs.
All these points and more are why the avg. American worker continues to feel left behind. When the Government and the media only highlight the unemployment rate in its headlines, and tout it as a positive, it does a great disservice to us all.
154
@Terry Garner Peterson Labor force participation rate, from '48 to about 1980 was lower than it is now... we didn't have economic stagnation for all 30 of those years. The numbers, whether we point to unemployment or LFPR (or any other BOL stats), don't reflect the constantly evolving demographics in our country.
2
@Terry Garner Peterson
Agree. Labor participation hides underlying status of workers. Consider that demographic profiles of workers are relevant to understanding what is behind the statistics. The largest segment, Baby Boomers, that were laid-off during the Financial Crisis either were forced into to retirement, withdrew from the labor pool or had their jobs lost through automation and/or export of jobs. The Millennials, representing the second largest demographic experienced what the Boomers had experienced in 1981 (Reagan era) when a deep recession bottomed before Alan Greenspan's 'miracle' kicked-in and disguised Boomers' failure to find jobs they once had or were trained or schooled to undertake.
Economic analysis tends to uncover leading and following indicators that confirm a stage of recovery and 'good times'. But statistics usually do not assess 'quality of life' issues, including profiles of misplaced workers that scrambled to find suitable careers but, instead, entered an economic 'twilight zone' of several job placements that paid less well and often came with low-value benefits and token pensions.
My dad was laid-off at 50 years old after 19 years working as an union autoworker in a non-assembly line position. It was difficult for my dad to find suitable work after the recession. He started a pizzeria and we - a family of seven, survived. And that was during the mid-1960s.
Point is that the economy doesn't lift all boats when the tide rolls in.
5
I share your opinion that jobs created are not always equivalent to those lost and certainly current middle class wages are nothing like those in 1969 in terms of buying power. The fact is that the constant pressure in corporations to keep worker salaries low and executive pay in excess of the value they produce has made it such that full employment has no effect on inflation because workers’ salaries are so low that they could rise significantly and still have very little impact on prices. Workers are under valued. Someday we will finally realize that and pay workers a fair wage. At that time we will return to prosperity.
3
Our lack of wage growth is the outlier here. There are several reasons: exporting better jobs while retaining lower paying jobs, deunionization, automation, wealth concentration. None of these trends are likely to reverse.
These are big problems for an economy heavily overweighted toward the consumer sector. Consumer debt has been making up for for lost purchasing power, but consumer debt is a drug that comes with a hangover. We also have over trillion dollars of student debt outstanding, and that is slowing young family formation. Subprime auto loans are financing auto purchases, higher interest rates will put a damper on residential construction.
These problems will not be corrected by a recession. In fact they will be amplified. Debt ridden economies do not have the resiliency that dealing with a recession requires. (Read "Adults In the Room") Our banking and finance sector is so politically powerful that debt relief will not be an option, even if debt relief becomes the only option.
39
Can we please get an accurate definition of working?
Are these numbers based on jobs with benefits solely? Or do they count someone who, for example, drives for hire and gets a couple of fares/week?
And where are the numbers of people who have dropped out of the force?
How does the aging of America fit into this?
Does it even make sense that we are graduating from college much larger numbers than job growth reported (over the year) and the rate is lowering?
Can we please see some analysis of what the numbers actually reflect and what they do not reflect?
89
@Currents
Yes, by the current official American definition of employment, if you worked at least for two days in the last month (if memory doesn't fail me), you're considered "employed".
So, yes, everybody is counted -- even if you just sold lemonade in a sunday morning during the last 30 days.
2
@Currents
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States#Unemployme...
... The U6 unemployment rate as of April 2017 was 8.6 percent.[138] The U6 unemployment rate counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U3 rate), but also counts "marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons." Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the "marginally attached workers" include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over.[139]….
Footnotes
138.
Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization". U.S. Bureau of Labor [Statistics]
139.
^ "U6 Unemployment Rate". Portal Seven.
@Currents, I'll try to answer your questions, though I recommend just reading the report from the BLS at www.bls.gov. First, the BLS counts people as working even if they only get paid a few hours a week and even if their job has no benefits. The BLS counts 1.6 million people as marginally attached to the labor force. Americans are aging, and this shows up in the low labor force participation rate (because older people are less likely to work as they reach retirement age). We are creating around 2 million new jobs a year, which is less than the number of new entrants into the job market. But you must also consider that millions of people also retire every year, which makes room for the younger workers.
If it kept up with inflation since the late 1960s the minimum age would be around $12/hour. And, productivity has outstripped pay 6.2x since then. That would put the minimum wage at around $21/hour.
28
@Killoran How am I supposed to pay the CEO a pay 1000 times the average worker and keep the shareholders happy if I pay 21 dollars an hour. That is the real problem. The benefits of productivity no longer goes to the workers.
6
Great to have people working, but what are they taking home in their paychecks? Are these jobs with a future? Are these new hires coming in with more in their paycheck than used to be paid? Are paychecks going up for those workers who were already on board.
It is also important to keep in mind that some of this only (not all or even most of it) is the consequence of the tax cut that went to corporations and the wealthy. Most of the money is staying in the pockets of corporations and the wealthy and will go into Wall St. to make them more money. So if Main St. gets a little that’s good, but it isn’t improving our aging infrastructure like the commuter rail lines or our roads, and corporate America is not going to do that.
13