What world does trump live in? One that has us reeked in drama, not wholesome learning “drama,” but one wrought with the emotions of a 70 yo child who has not grown up, and, obviously, never will. A country and world waking up every day not knowing what he has done overnight, or will do today. Tweeting words even an adolescent mind can’t comprehend, with scary words not only for us, but the world. With a corrupt compromised GOP who refuse to bring an iota of sanity to a begging public we are left with....?
God Help Us. We are tired, so tired; worn down, apathy is everywhere....
2
It appears that Pres.Trump has exempted from the tariff a number of Apple products, as well as those of other companies and industries.
The lesson is that if you go out of your way to do something that the Braggart-in-Chief can praise himself for, you will be "highly rewarded" in the new era of crony capitalism.
1
I am no fan of Trump or his haphazard policy. Nor I care for any of Peter Navarro's China basher in chief tactics. However, China really started its wanton with its PLA sponsored hacks and its aggressive artificial island formation.
President Obama tried diplomacy by trying to strike a deal with President Xi. Spy v. spy is fine but nation-state sponsored industrial espionage not. And presumably Mr Xi has given his Mr Obama his promise. It has never stopped. The recent cases with Micron Tech and Apple might not have involved the PLA but China could have stopped them. It is just a very controlling country!
Nortel and American Superconductor were some of the former victims. Nortel is totally destructed but AMSC civil case drags on.
Trump may be too fixated in trade balance to understand intellectual properties and other intangibles but the latter worth a heck lot more. So if China is sincere to reduce tension, it should help curtail covertly sanctioned industrial espionage and prosecute any cases happened on its soil. A small gesture but it may go a long way passed the Trump era
1
USA will make a trade deal with China on their terms and at their choosing.
Perhaps, believe failed "China expert" Kevin Rudd (ask the Australian electorate about his cred) and other administration detractors, or, listen to the stock market which have USA indices up +10% and China index down 20% since the announcements of tariffs. President Trump is entirely correct in his assessment of leverage. China cannot replace the US level of demand for it products and needs US capital markets for its investments.
Should the USA return to its trade appeasement policies followed by the feckless Obama and other prior administrations? That is what got us to this critical juncture on trade. Trump has renegotiated trade deals with SK and Mexico, two major trade partners and EU is within reach. Promises made and promises kept.
1
Trump is busy imposing tariffs that will increase the cost of everything American consumers consume. If you don't understand, this is a 10-25% tax on every American every time you shop. From my standpoint, that is not a good thing. How about you?
I think most Americans, not just "Trump's base" support the idea that if China is involved in the theft of the "intellectual property" of American companies then it should be stopped. Also requiring "forced transfer" of proprietary knowledge by American companies to Chinese companies as a price for doing business in China also appears inherently unfair and shouldn't continue.
My problem with Trump and the republicans is that they have done nothing about the budget deficit which has contributed to stimulating Chinese businesses . If you spend more than you produce the excess spending goes to our trading partners-especially the Chinese. There is no way in my opinion that the US can win this "trade war" until we get a handle on our own spending. Thanks for the forum.
2
“If you want a short-term solution, there is no solution.”? Sure there is. It is called "Mid-terms", November 2018.
Normally, a president would explain in great detail why a very controversial action was being taken. With Trump's trade war, we get more abstractions. We're told China is stealing IP from US companies, yet have we seen one single example? We hear about forced transfers of technology from foreign companies and predatory joint venture agreements, but aren't these business agreements that American companies willingly made? And where is our moral high-ground in regard to the Made in China 2025 initiative? Look what our government did after the financial collapse of 2007/2008. We bailed out hundreds of businesses, including multi-billion dollar low-interest loans (TARP) to banks, manufacturers, insurance companies, etc. Then Obama (rightfully so) pushed through a stimulus package. Then the Fed instituted $4 trillion (trillion with a "T") in quantitative easing (talk about Monopoly money).
In reality, these claims against China are smoke and mirrors. The real issue is simple math. Trump sees our trade imbalance with China as thievery on their part. And the more anti-China folks in his administration see China's economic ascension on the world stage as a threat to American dominance.
If China is stealing IP, stop it. Don't make it part of a larger negotiation meant to protect the American ego. China's economy will surpass ours. They have 4 times the population. And our trade deficit with China isn't hurting America. Just look at our economic numbers. Reality 101.
1
Intellectual property, and Intellectual property rights is a 18th century western concept used to concentrate wealth among a privileged few. Intellectual property was a flawed concept from the start. In the history of mankind no one person has ever had an original idea. Thomas Edison did not invent the lightbulb. No one person invented the car. No one person invented the telephone. No one person invented the wheel. Americans didn’t invent the chemical rockets that took American astronauts to the moon and back. Elon Musk didn’t invent the electric car or the battery or the electric motor. Steve Jobs didn’t invent the iPhone, the iPad or the first Apple computer! But Steve Jobs became fabulous wealthy by controlling the intellectual property rights of the countless engineers, scientists, programmers who collectively design these Apple Inc products. And no one person invented the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki killing 140 thousand civilians and no enemy combatants!
1
“Hopefully, this trade situation will be resolved, in the end, by myself and President Xi of China, for whom I have great respect and affection,” Mr. Trump said in his statement announcing the tariffs.
Reading the above quote makes me wonder when we will see an analogous report about Mr. Trump, something like:
“Hopefully, the complications creating havoc in our marriage will be resolved, in the end, by myself and Melania, for whom I have great respect and affection,” Mr. Trump said in his statement discussing his infidelity.
Now the new tariffs will include clothing and shoes, which is exactly a new taxation to ordinary American people and big American companies like Walmart and Nike. Their full implementation seems impossible. Take it easy, something different will be happening in November for sure.
Even if China is guilty of manipulating global trading system, gaming with the US, indulging in IP theft and forced technology transfer, the right way to make China observe rules of the game is diplomatic engagement or to seek redress through the dispute settlement mechanism of the WTO, but never a tariff imposing coercive muscle flexing which is pain inflicting to both sides and damaging to the respective economies, and certainly to the world economy also.
I have read the article and many of the responses which are all thoughtful and profound. However, the moron president is the cause and the reasons behind this debacle. He is incapable of weighing the cost of these actions, or even understanding. Who will pay the tab, his billionaire cronies or his base? A suggestion for Mr Trump, let the experts deal with China and do volunteer work at Fox, your twisted moronic perspective will please the audience.
3
It's pretty obvious. What country stands to gain with a cold war between China and the USA?
Russia.
3
Russia is virtually a third world economy. Any battle between china and the United States doesn’t portend any advantage to the Russians.
1
We are at a disadvantage in our economic fight with China because we as a democracy, play by the rules whereas China is an autocratic dictatorship with only a leader to please and they bend every rule. Trump does not know anything about the overall negativities of his actions for US or China. I hope China is stopped in their drive for economic supremacy.
2
People don’t realize that there is a power that the US has with China, in China owing a trillion dollars of US debt.
The bank or lender (China) is beholden to the debtor (the US) with the sum of money as large as it is.
For example when Trump was losing banks money to the point of insolvency with his Atlantic City Casino, Trump Airline, etc it was the banks who came to him working to keep his name and business in tact. So much debt gave Trump the power over the banks.
I agree with almost nothing this President does. However, as I someone who has spent decades focused on US-China relations, I am happy to see that at least there is at least the directness of power shown by this country to China.
China will only alter itself with this type of direct action. Slow diplomatic maneuvering is where we will lose to China, as they are better at this type of game. I am happy to see that we are finally taking a stand with China in this regard.
3
I have read so much recently about China not being able to keep up with the the tit for tat over the tariffs, and that may in fact be true. China does, however, have a very large hammer that they could use with devastating effect. They now hold over 1 Trillion dollars of our government's debt. Imagine the impact it could have if they decided to sell off even a small part of that debt. It could surely impact the markets.
It is written that Kings should count the costs before starting a war. Something that the US failed to do.
It seems that trade wars were easy.
But the price is always paid by the citizens. Tariffs are nothing but an additional Tax.
Is the Trump administration concealing this from consumers?
quote
After U.S. markets closed on Monday, Trump announced he would impose a 10 percent
tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese exports to the United States – half the level previously contemplated, but still designed to move Beijing toward bilateral talks. As an added incentive to come to the table, he announced that figure would surge to 25 percent at the end of the year, after the U.S. holiday selling season.
Commentary: Trump tariffs only a weak blow to China David A. Andelman Sep18 2018 Reuters
unquote
and notably after the mid terms.
1
It will take 100 years to un-do what Donald Trump has done in less then twenty-four months. Think. He’s put us back to the end of World War I .
dP
1
But the president added, “It got to a point where the numbers were too big.” China “rebuilt their country with tremendous amounts of money pouring out of the United States,” he said. “And I’ve changed that around.
If Trump believes this, he is crazier than he seems to be. As far as I know, there is NO analysis that says he has brought jobs and money back to the USA from China.
2
An economy has a cycle. When a down cycle comes here, and we are still in self-inflicted trade disputes with China, EU and other countries, this downturn will become unnecessarily deep and messy. Trump then will blame foreigners, immigrants, Democrats, and media for the terrible state of the economy and union. No surprise here.
1
The foreign policies of big economic powers like US and China are in a state of collusion in various theatres of the world especially in South China Sea over the freedom of navigation. China claims South China Sea is in the ambit of Beijing sovereignty , while US rejects.
China has been making inroads in across the globe by offering investments on attractive terms suitable for Regime Countries without invoking political correctness particularly in Africa and Latin America neglected by US.
The BRI,both on land and oceans has insulated and limited Washington influence in East Asia , South Asia, Central Asia and Africa. To contain and minimize US influence in Balkans, Middle East both Russia and China have demonstrated their military prowess recently.
The US withdrawal from Iranian nuclear deal paved the way for China entry in the already trouble waters.
While US has lost many friendly countries under Trump for his inconsistent policies,China gained sympathy among Third World.
To minimize China economy and it's impact on world , Trump has initiated and imposing heavy tariff on China goods without realising long term consequences.
Right now, the US cannot even manage to sign a trade deal with Canada, a country with whom trade was balanced and mutually beneficial.
That there says everything about the current administration!
2
China and Japan are now smiling and greeting one another like the powers they are with a state visit coming in November in China. I think trump and his team have made a huge error that will cost us dearly. Watching this slow motion train wreck is difficult as I believe the speed will pick up...soon.
1
The Republicans have tried this before, it was called the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act. It led to the Great Depression. To bad Trump doesn't read history.
"the Trump administration had done a good job of cataloging China’s abuses: theft of intellectual property, forced transfer of technology from foreign companies, predatory joint venture agreements."
Cataloging? How do you catalogue something that does not exist?
'Alleging without substantiation' is not as catchy, but at least it's accurate.
“,,,the president believes that the United States has the upper hand on China, with an ability to impose tariffs on a far larger number of goods than the Chinese can match given that America imports far more than it exports…”
Actually, it’s not that simple.
Because of the reduced US demand on the international market for the goods subject to the new US tariffs, their price will drop. On the other hand, US producers will surely raise the US internal price, reducing US consumption.
Illegal imports of Chinese goods falsely claiming other countries as “country of origin” will suddenly become very profitable. This will become fertile ground for corruption.
The US will be forced to place tariffs on similar goods from other countries, just as it had to do on steel and aluminum. This is one of the reasons bilateral trade agreements are not as effective as multilateral ones.
In any case, due to the large US fiscal deficit, the US dollar will continue to appreciate. Despite the tariffs, Chinese products will sooner rather than later again be cheaper in the US than US products. Chinese imports will resume at their pre-tariffs levels.
In the short term tariffs will reduce imports, but they will also reduce exports. The effect on the trade deficit will be minimal.
In the end, the only ones negatively affected will be US consumers. The US producers and illegal importers of the goods affected will profit handsomely.
17
The simple fact is that the United States of America has become a very unreliable trading partner and ally under the current administration and the current majority in Congress.
This puts us at great disadvantage in the world community, for what country can trust our State Department negotiators or our military commanders? The fact is that they cannot count on our elected officials to act in good faith, and so their emissaries are rendered ineffective, for their negotiations are dismantled at the whim of the Commander in Chief
The Republicans have carved out for themselves a reputation for dishonesty and self-dealing that’s reverberating around the globe.
It will affect our international business, health, and military relations for a long time to come. The Republican Party must decide that their current course is disastrous and take concrete steps to expel the destructive elements within their party. It’s absolutely clear that the chief executive is a clear and present danger to our national security.
"Trade war" is a phrase that misleads the American public in a dangerous way. People think, given the analogy to an actual armed conflict, whatever hurts China is good for the US. Whatever is good for the US hurts China. But international trade doesn't work like that. It is made up of thousands, perhaps millions, of individual economic relationships. What hurts Chinese businesses will have negative ripple effects on US businesses.
There is talk of this trade war can send China into a massive economic crash and a recession. Supporters of the trade war are talking about this possibility like that's victory. But if Chinese sinks into an economic tailspin, it will drag the rest of the world (including the US) with it.
Americans are once again gripped by war fever. Hot war, cold war, trade war, shooting war...American greatness has long been defined by its ability to wage war.
This is oddly reminiscent of the lead up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq: jingoistic slogans coming out of the White House, long litanies about the evils of the other side, demands by the president's supporters that we all blindly jump off the cliff together in the name of patriotism. Those members of the media who are willing to be skeptical and ask tough questions are dismissed as "weak" or "unpatriotic."
Nobody wants to think about the inconvenient questions, like "how will this affect American businesses that are part of integrated supply chains with Chinese businesses" or "why wouldn't American businesses simply offshore from China to Vietnam or Bangladesh" or "how much will we actually gain when assembly jobs are becoming more obsolete by the minute with increasing automation."
Like all war fever, rationality is thrown out the window. For example, Trump supporters keep talking about how this will send the Chinese economy into a tailspin...as though that's a good thing. They don't realize that in our globalized era, if China's economy goes into a tailspin then so will the rest of the world's.
3
American policy makers led us to this juncture. Always the quick and easy buck and the stories to support this. Our Power Elite had no qualms about effectuating policies which they knew would change whole industries and disenfranchise a large segment of the population. Larry Summers, no less, commented: "Maybe they don't deserve that much money."
The chickens have come home to roost. Faced with an ever growing imbalance of wealth and its attendant political disaffection we now complain about our circumstances. Those circumstances are of our making. We are the masters of our destiny, to think otherwise is to deny entirely the history and ideals of this great nation.
Trump may be a mendacious and narcissistic autocrat but on this he speaks the truth. Since the beginning of the Age of Reagan our policy makers have followed blindly the desires of the large financial institutions and not invested sufficiently in infrastructure and advanced manufacturing. So much easier to dip their cup in that river of wealth flowing East and take their skim, all the while parroting meaningless nostrums about "the new economy".
Only now are they beginning to understand the real consequences of their greed and self interest. The irony is that it has taken a mendacious, narcissist, with a short attention span to begin this very important dialogue.
18
This is a battle America absolutely had to wage sooner or later. China is neither a friend nor an ally, and don’t kid yourself otherwise.
2
Who gets the 10-25% tariff money? What will it be spent on? How fast (theoretically) could a US manufacturer produce set up, run and distribute baby cribs, bicycles and bicycle helmets, etc. etc.?
Or will our choice and selection look like a Montgomery Ward's catalogue circa 1950?
Just thinking.
2
In any competition, whether in sports or elsewhere, one sure sign of a loser is the avalanche of cheating accusations without thoughts through an issue. But in economics, there are the added traps of both underestimating the competition and not doing anything to improve oneself to compete. Looking at the comments here cannot help but gave impressions of groupthink and lemmings rather than the will to compete. Is this a further sign of US really in decline?
People keep saying that China could just magically sell all its treasury bonds and that doing that would somehow ONLY hurt the United States.
You know why China cant just dump all its Treasury Bill's? It's because it would cause their currency to become much stronger against the dollar. This would actually hurt China by making their exports more expensive while making it cheaper for American exporters to export to China. It would actually UNDERMINE their efforts in a trade war.
So if you believe that China has some Sword of Damacles in the form of US Treasury Bonds, you dont fully understand how Treasury Bonds work in global economics.
Plus, China cannot demand that the US Treasury pay up. US Treasury Bonds only pay out when they mature! All China can do is sell Treasury Bonds, increasing interest rates and making the debt more expensive than it was before for the US government. This wont actually destroy the bond market as China only owns about 8% of Treasury Bonds. Other countries would need to jump on board to cause a full route of the bond market that could actually really hurt the United States economy in a way that would cause lasting and deep damage. This is possible, but it's not something China would be likely to do because it could destroy the global bond market as well and destroy the Chinese economy before it destroyed the United States. We are still the most powerful nation on earth, and we can survive a lot more than the Chinese.
Trump is right to confront the Chinese on the IP theft. But doing it with tariffs will hurt the low and middle class the most. Tariffs are essentially sales taxes which by their nature are regressive.
1
Xi's ego is in the way of growth. He feels China is on top and nothing will stop his 'ego' Country.
Without the United States Xi has nothing.
Time for Xi to rethink trade and open his doors to Europe and the United States.
Obviously Xi thinks otherwise.
Bottom line: he's just another third world communist dictator.
While nobody can predict history, Trump is a free trader unwise before they went out of biz, he would have brought back Ivanka's trinket factories from slave labor India.
Trump will get some bones from China and the rest of the world and declare victory and that he is the greatest president since Lincoln.
If I am wrong, disaster will come as the article states but only as long as Trump is in office which thank God is a max of only six more yrs.
1
The way I see it, Trump is not only hurting China, but most of all he is hurting the American people. How? The tariffs we are paying, will offset the tax cuts he just gave the rich.
Since the Republicans cut taxes on the rich, the tarrifs will provide alternative source of income for the government. Except of course the bulk of the burden will fall on the poor and the middle class.
"Theft of intellectual property, forced transfer of technology from foreign companies, predatory joint venture agreements"; I must agree with Trump administration's action on this one. China takes part in a big part of world's economy today. Reading this quote in the article made me imagine whether China would be the same without what they have done so far. I believe China's political/economical actions hurt other countries for their own benefits. This would mean other countries are losing their opportunities to bring their ideas into the scene. Imposing the tariff on Chinese goods would decrease our consumption of Chinese goods and possibly increase the consumption of other country's good let alone our own goods. This would farther distribute the currency throughout the world rather than having a big proportion go to China.
The claim that Trump has put China & the US on a cusp of a New Cold War is incredibly ambiguous and is not directly supported by the article. The term "Cold War" refers to a state of tension, but haven't negotiations with China been historically tense?....I digress....
China is not very receptive to negotiation with the US and has not always been cooperative in trade practices, from a business standpoint Trump is doing what he can to enable producers within the US by incentivizing companies to source material from within the US rather than outsourcing materials from other countries. Trump is pushing American producers & consumers to keep wealth within by circulating money within American rather than outsourcing to regions like China, and in turn empowering their economy rather than ours.
1
The media is full of images and words about the big import/export mavens; auto, computers, steel, aluminum, etc, but lost in the haze is us small manufactures who want nothing to do with this dystopian mayhem. We’re not red state/blue state, we’re the real state who keep the stores full of goods for all consumers, no matter their persuasion. We already pay duty on what we bring in, why doesn’t the media check this? Who pays the tariffs? We do. We can’t simply pass on the surcharge to our customers and stores. If we revise our wholesale price, the store raises the retail price even more. Has anyone in this administration thought this through? We somehow survived the 2008 debacle and now the Republican Party is again laying the seeds for another mess? This isn’t being partisan, if the Democrats were doing this, I’d complain just the same. The confused president wants to look macho to his shrinking base for political points, but it’s the same base that will get the shaft - again. I don’t like the president and don’t identify as one of his base, but as a professional, we sell to that base and treat them like family. There is no winner in this faux battle and the President cannot help himself with his menacing naïveté. What do you say about a person who brags incessantly about the economy while simultaneously wrecking it?
The war is already here and ongoing. Why why why does out post office give the Chinese cheaper rates than Americans?? It's a third of the price to ship from China than it is to send something to my neighbor thus creating yet another unfair advantage. And China is making big headway everywhere else in the world while we fight amongst ourselves.
President Trump has severely underestimated China and is treating China antagonistically when there is no reason to do so at all. I am in China often and I know the Chinese have good feeling for America and we should have the same for China.
7
There are two strong possible outcomes in Donald Trump's world wide trade war.
One is he breaks the wills of China, the EU, Canada and the rest of the developed world. One by one they capitulate.
The other is that they resist and are drawn into a world wide collaboration against the US. Imagine if the Euro and the Yuan replace the Dollar as the global currency. What if the EU and China each a sweeping trade deal and leave the US out? What if the EU and China hold the Iran deal together?
This could break either way.
10
@Michael
President Trump does not understand the long range, global strategy of the US imperialists. The priority now is to put pressure on Russia with a military confrontation in the Baltics, not an all out war, but enough to destabilize Russia and force a regime change.
Ideally, like Yugoslavia, Russia would be broken up--into European Russian, Siberian and Far Eastern States, each under a Yeltsin-style leader, subservient to the US. Then, with Russia's natural resources and educated workforce gulped down, the US would have the heft to take on China, especially in partnership with a fascist, militarist India, whose population by then will surpass that of China.
President Trump's present aggressive moves against China are, from the geo-political strategist's point of view, a horrible case of premature escalation.
There is no question that both sides will be hurt economically by this trade war. There is no question that both sides will gain economically by expanding trade, in the short term. But there is a political consideration too. Shall we trade with China, where there is no free speech, no balance of power, no rule of law? What will happen when China continues to grow economically and continues to restrict individual freedom, when China's leaders can direct vast resources to do whatever their ambition takes them? The consequence may be grave for the United States. On the other hand, there is also a possibility that, with growing prosperity, the Chinese will finally demand the rights they are denied, and change their government. Frankly, I see the latter outcome less likely to happen now, with Xi at the helm. So yes, I support putting pressure on China economically, even though it means sacrifices to be made here.
6
I'm going to be sick again. Did you read this:
"Poland, Making a Play for a U.S. Military Base, Offers to Call It Fort Trump" It was posted a few minutes ago.
Don't you do it Poland. Build your own military base and send your own kids to die in Putin's war.
15
The problem I see here is the tendency to conflate it all into one big problem. We have patent infringement, copyright piracy, and similar issues with many countries. India ignores drug patents for example, driving big pharma to distraction. China just happens to also sell us lots of stuff that we can't make cheaper here.
If you want to fix the IP problem, use the courts. If you want to fix the trade imbalance, good luck, not going to happen. Americans can't survive on less than $400 a week while Chinese manufacturing workers are making less than $100 a week.
13
This is absurd. Every election ends with a conquering army taking power and subjectgating the losing army. This is unhealthy and can not go on. It is like two bullies in a classroom. They must fight it out, to settle who runs the class once and for all. Unfortunately, in Human history, politics is a cycle that includes war. 150 years ago, we were in a war, that settled the direction that the country would take. Unfortunately, we are there again. I don’t see a peaceful solution to this hatred and divisiveness. The country has to decide what direction that it should go and the ballot no longer is working.
5
@Joe Smith How do you figure? When Obama was elected, I believe he tried to help everyone, especially the bankers. He seemed to have had little choice.
Don't buy the false equivalence of "bullies". I'm not a Democrat but the Republican Party more and more resembles The Mob.
6
You really need to know what you mean by "Cold War" before you can declare we're on the cusp of a new one. The Cold War was a struggle for world domination between the US and the USSR. That struggle focused on controlling of the world's economic powerhouses: Europe (aka German), and NE Asia. It was an economic, political and military confrontation that lasted 45 years.
Trump tariffs come nowhere near to putting us on the cusp of a new Cold War. Trump has simply put us on the cusp of economic foolishness not a global struggle for world domination.
6
Remind me why TPP was such a lousy idea? Seems to me we could have remained the major player in Asian trade. Golly, I’m so tired of winning.
10
How can we qualify the results of a trade war? Both sides will suffer losses and this struggle is about world dominance. On that note, we need to take every step to squash Chinese initiative to prevent loss of our dominant position to the Chinese. I personally do not respect the Chinese because of the slipshod methods in manufacturing and manipulation of the yuan. They also provide unlimited government support of industry creating a disadvantage for us as in Autocratic dictatorship vs democracy. Yet we can still outrun them if we want to. Do we want to?
4
China has educated its people, raised 500,000,000 people out of poverty and with imports from countries with agricultural surpluses has managed to feed everyone. China does not threaten the United States and its people. Why have its 1.4 billion people become our enemy? Same goes for Canada, Mexico, and the EU.
Together, as the two largest climate changing polluting countries in the world, the United States and China could lead the world to a safer and saner future and perhaps stop the developing Climate Change Catastrophe.
This trade war is costly and stupid. Only Putin wins!
24
@JMT
Ask Europe how a policy of appeasement worked out for it in 1939. This war with China had to be fought or Western capitalist democracy was at risk.
1
I work in aerospace on a military program. The Chinese try and breach our system daily to steal our trade secrets. I'm sure it is the same for Boeing, General Electric, Intel, etc. Made in China 2025 relies heavily on theft.
Wake up NYT, the competition has already begun, and the Chinese have been winning. Why does the NYT under-report this serious threat to the long term success of the US, and bash Trump instead.
6
What will happen in China as is happening in Canada is Canadians are buying less American products and spending less in American restaurants.Kentucky Chicken and Pizza Hut will be affected.Plus less visits to Disneyland.
9
Like the entire Trump platform, picking trade wars with allies and adversaries alike is a futile attempt to turn back the clock decades or centuries. And it is breathtaking to see the collection of cranks and frauds running the policy. Peter Navarro? Larry Kudlow? Really?
TPP was not perfect, but it was designed to address exactly the problems with China we claim to be trying to address - market dumping, intellectual property theft etc. - through concerted rather than unilateral action. But since Obama was involved, Trump had to be automatically against it. Meanwhile, we borrow against future growth and widen economic inequality by handing the wealthiest individuals and companies a trillion dollar tax cut.
Whether GOP incompetence leads to a sudden crash a la W Bush or just a long reduction in economic growth over decades remains to be seen. But it will be one or the other - or both.
12
So Trump creates jobs to manufacture cheap stuff at home for Walmart while the Chinese go the next step by creating jobs for the future. Soon we will be supplying the world with consumer products while the Chinese are creating the high tech stuff we need to survive. Who wins here?
9
World trade will be realigned. Mr. Trump thinks he can go it alone and assemble a basket of bilateral trade agreements with other nations that will be favorable to the U.S. But it may be that the rest of the world will create its own agreements, and the United States will be left out in the cold. When, for example, we alienate our longtime neighbor and ally, Canada, that's an ominous sign.
Mr. Trump's "America First" may make America last.
11
The fools, nobody understands the trade value of Services. Any US- EU trade imbalance vanishes when services are accounted for. Asia buys billions in services too! Trump is driving the world into new alliances, that don’t involve US!
8
@TH Williams
This argument that “services” make the trade deficit disappear is a false narrative.
1
The Chinese have played by their own rules for about 20 years, increasingly acting as though they have us over a barrel because of our perceived dependence on their cheaply manufactured goods. Trump may not be making the right moves, but he's trying to do something other than just continue negotiating and consoling unemployed manufacturing workers about the inevitable demise of US industries. Negotiations with the Chinese about critical issues such as copyrights, IP and market access have gone in circles for years. Now we have their attention.
4
Similar to both Democrats and Republicans kicking the North Korean situation down the road, both parties have been negligent in confronting China over its egregious trade practices. Say what you want about Trump, support him or not, but he's doing something that should have been done long ago. Shall we continue to allow forced technology transfers, limited control of joint ventures and limits on foreign ownership in China or finally do something about it?
1
"But the president added, “It got to a point where the numbers were too big.” China “rebuilt their country with tremendous amounts of money pouring out of the United States,” he said. “And I’ve changed that around.”
Trump, through tariffs, has changed nothing around, except a year or two from now, he will likely have undone most of the economic well being built up since the recession. Over and over, the result of tariffs are increased costs to US manufacturers, increased costs to US consumers, inflation, increased tax revenue that will be wasted by the government, and zero negative impact on those countries where tatiffs are imposed. In fact history has shown that, especially China, will just step up its ways to offset the tariffs.
Trump has done nothing more than sewn the seeds for American economic hardship a few short years down the road.
22
I totally disagree. We taught the Chinese to fish and they stole our fish anyway. It probably is a good idea that we suffer for a while while we transition back to a more balanced economy.
I believe we are looking at months not years. As Forbes reports, tariffs are nothing more than taxes on consumers. https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/09/18/president-trumps-...
I don't think Trump is trying to "solve" or "fix" anything. His assignment is to weaken the US and global alliances among democracies.
Otherwise, he would have built a coalition with our allies in Europe and Japan to face China together.
Trump is Putin's saboteur, plain and simple.
6
Rather than maintain good relationships with America's long standing allies, Trump has alienated them all by insults and needless tariffs in which America is ultimately (and needlessly) fighting this trade war with China alone.
Just think how much more successful a combined NAFTA and European trade block would be dealing with China rather than the Trump idea of intimidation and confrontation which could ultimately result in all the others eventually moving closer to China and further away from America which could result in the elimination of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.
History has shown that when that happens and especially in the 1950's when the world reserve currency moved away from the pound sterling to the dollar, the British Empire and its influence in the world was essentially finished.
The sad part about all this is if Trump could just shut up and stop tweeting, it could have all been avoided.
11
This trade war is inevitable because US is hellbent on containing China.
The 'large trade deficit' and IP theft is just a smokescreen to hide the real purpose of the trade war which is to slow China's rise, especially militarily.
US hope a weakened Chinese budget will underfund PLA that will allow US to continue to contain China.
In effect, ordinary US citizens are unwitting pawns by the hidden agenda of those who advise Trump to contain China by other means when the military means fail.
Proof of China containment is CIFUS banning Chinese investments, Trump complaining Chinese students learning in US and perhaps stealing IP.
If US policymakers continue to make containing China the top priority, US consumers will continue to suffer and will trigger a recession faster than Trump ever imagine.
4
Trump is nothing more than a gangster. His approach to dealing with the trade imbalance with China is stupid. China is a reality the size of which the US cannot break with tariffs. While Trump is busy breaking the US economy, China is aptly capturing the world (minus the US) markets. Trump is stupid, the people around him are stupid, his base is a bunch of uneducated stupid people. The sooner he is out, the better. His impact may however linger on for quite a while. The legacy of electing stupid people.
2
Lets get this correct!
It is not Trump, but China who started the problem! The Chinese cheat by stealing our intellectual property, imposing barriers to our businesses from operating in China, violating human rights in extreme ways with their Muslim citizens, and destroying the South China sea by creating man-made islands!
So who is to blame?
5
@JePense
apple sued Samsung for copyright/patent infringement and won.
do you have any evidence u.s. company sued Chinese companies for patent theft or you're perpetuating the myths.
Trump's tariffs are Republicans' way of increasing taxes on working class Americans.
The manifestly destructive stupidity of Republican trade, tax and economic policies is truly mind-boggling.
Historians will love writing about this, the greatest economic folly committed at any time in recorded world history.
7
Bush and Clinton were dangerously naïve when they thought that China would be willing to play a secondary role to the U.S. in the global order.
We must finally recognize that China is an adversary. Not a partner or an ally. Also not an enemy (so far).
They seek to challenge the U.S. diplomatically and militarily across the globe, but especially in the Pacific. They do not share Western perspectives on democracy, human rights, or trade policies, and seek to promote alternative values.
We should move quickly to reduce our trade deficits with China by shifting some production back to the U.S and much of it to allies such as Mexico.
It is unwise to fund an adversary.
4
It seems to me that China could retaliate by dumping some of their trillion + bonds onto the world market. We would be obligated to redeem them if there weren't enough buyers. The nightmare created by the treasury having to print massive dollars would be interesting. World markets might be roiled.
The Chinese would be greatly hurt, but they play a longer game than we do.
2
If this is how the Dow reacts to a Cold War, order up some more with a side of fries for me. Thank you.
4
Two small problems with this author's hypothesis. One, China cannot afford a new cold war. China has lost any arms race before it begins. Second, Xi's recent power grab allowing him to be in office for life is a sign of weakness, not strength.
3
Have China’s trade and economic policies been unfair to the western world? The answer is yes. Are Trump’s tactics the optimal way to deal with these issues? A resounding no. Pulling out of TPP was fundamentally a disastrous mistake. Strength in numbers is the key to dealing with China. By not partnering with our closest Asian allies, we have potentially all but thrown them into China’s waiting arms. Simultaneously making economic enemies of our closest western allies has only exasperated the situation. It takes complex strategy to deal appropriately with this problem over the long term. The world will eventually end up as a completely integrated economy, whether we like it or not. Advanced communications and transportation systems have made this reality inevitable, short of literally steering the planet into World War III. What we are fighting for now is to find ways of minimizing the pain for US workers over the time period leading up to this historical inevitability. With automaton only accelerating, the whole planet will need solutions to keep the world’s workforce engaged, employed and satisfied. The old world style trade wars and trickle down tax cuts of the Trump administration will solve absolutely nothing. Smoke and mirrors does not even begin to describe it all, as the resulting economic backlash from both will soon harshly demonstrate.
8
Any one who believes the Cold War ended when the wall came down, is deluded.
1
Putin is winning...
8
This is why every major media outlet except one (Sheldon Adelson - LV) including every conservative newspaper emplored its readers to not elect Donald Trump.
Someone who is ignorant, apparently has the attention span of a gnat, and basically doesn't know what he's doing is messing with the two biggest economies in the world.
God knows how this will all turn out.
5
China currently holds almost 8% of the US debt.
Should they choose, they could dump their holdings, and trigger an almost instant jump in the cost of credit, triggering a recession.
The advantage of a centralized economy is that it's very easy to inflict pain on your populace to further political goals.
4
Why don’t you take your train of thought to the next stop? China as you says pulls the strings on the debt, we suffer, all China did was tighten the noose around its (own)neck as we are it’s number 1 paying customer,
While I abhor the president his fiscal policy is straight out of Wharton and Real Estate, simply put
“If I owe the bank 1 Million the bank owns me, but if I owe the bank 1 billion I own the bank”
Trump is acting like a thug with China and our trading partners, But what so many of us hate to admit, is our past administrations were more interested in accommodating our partners instead of our citizens, This was done because our business leaders (with the help of our bought and sold elected officials) sold out the working class,
China will be here when Trump has gone, so there's light at the end of the tunnel.
3
Trump is nothing more than a gangster. His approach to dealing with the trade imbalance with China is stupid. China is a reality the size of which the US cannot break with tariffs. While Trump is busy breaking the US economy with these tariffs, China is aptly capturing the world (minus the US) markets. Trump is stupid, the people around him are stupid, his base is a bunch of uneducated stupid people with zero understanding of the world economy. The sooner Trump is out, the better. His impact may however linger on for quite a while. The legacy of electing stupid people.
14
Many people believe that tariffs are a tax on consumers. They are absolutely correct.
But subsidizing the food, shelter, education, and health insurance of the long-term unemployed and a low-wage workers is also a tax. Increasing defense budgets to counter China’s trade-subsidized military expansion is also a tax.
I would prefer to pay the tax in the form of more expensive products from U.S. workers making a decent wage.
Either way, there is no free lunch.
2
I hope Jack Ma is right about the 20 years. Labor is so much cheaper in India, Indonesia, Bangledesh, Vietnam, etc, etc. Why we keep trading with a country that won't allow equal access to markets is beyond me. The real question is can the U.S. consumer endure short term pain for long term gain.
4
The failure to follow through with TPP by the U.S. was a very major mistake.
4
@W.A. Spitzer
"The failure to follow through with TPP by the U.S. was a very major mistake."
The TPP was a corporate power grab similar to Citizens United except on a global scale. It was opposed by a global coalition of people's organizations along with the Democrats, progressives, and unions.
It was supported by the Congressional Republicans, multinational corporations, and their lawyers (who wrote it in secret with no public input), and also by Obama and Hillary.
Essentially it championed the rule of global corporations over people and national sovereignty.
The real intent was to make the interests of global corporations supreme over the laws of any nation and it had not much to do with trade, except as trade benefits corporations.
Note that trade benefits rerely trickle down to the people.
2
@Fourteen.....Did you ever read the TPP agreement?
"Note that trade benefits rerely trickle down to the people."......You are obviously not engaged in farming.
@W.A. Spitzer
Don't know much about farming, except tomatoes.
But yes I did read the entire TPP.
Only 6 of the 30 chapters are on trade. The rest is all fine-print for the corporations. It's not a trade agreement - it's all about what's good for global corporations superseding the laws of a country that regulate (e.g. national environmental and labor laws) what a corporation can do, and with unlimited penalties if the country does not comply.
I read this and articles like it daily from a variety of reliable sources including my own asset manager for my very modest account and yet do not understand why the stock market continues to go up - especially on any whisper of "progress" in negotiations with China. I would value a rational explanation but am beginning to wonder if there is anything rational about the stock market any more.
2
Great way to bring on a recession: start trade wars and create bubbles through tax cuts and deregulation. Maga!
3
Well, that tax cut for the rich won’t pay for itself, will it? These tariff are taxes by another name, for consumers.
7
Trump says he's winning, but that does not mean our country is winning.
Nevertheless, if one assumes that our winning is good for this country, we may have some strategic advantages in this war.
Winning would force China to open it's massive market and that would be a win for the world economy - and maybe for China.
China knows it has to open up sometime but is not quite ready as their economy requires reengineering away from it's closed market orientation. Early opening would disrupt their tightly controlled long-term planning.
An open Chinese market would imply an integrated alignment with the West such that the West could piggyback on their global development initiative. A global economic partnership may also stop the inevitable future military clash with China that our military academies currently train for.
Because Trump has no face, we have an advantage. He can change overnight as he did with ZTE.
Trump could do a strategic turnaround that gets the allies back on trade, and then present a united front to China. That's the stick - imagine if the EU doubled our tariffs on Chinese goods.
China has festering problems due to decades of 8% fast growth with no apparent fix.
Open markets could slow growth in a rational way that might fix high agricultural unemployment, poor loan quality, property bubbles, the undervalued yuan, high debt, pollution, and power shortages.
China would get the soft landing it needs and normalize global relations.
1
The Trump tariffs are a regressive tax on Americans, especially affecting everyday consumer goods. Meanwhile his 2017 tax heist "Christmas gift" to the ultra rich will insulate them from any of its effects. Plutocratic economics with paranoid xenophobia. Lovely!
10
@Tony Cochran
we have rare earth right here in the u.s. but it's better and cheaper to trash other's environment than ours.
China has significant leverage with the US that it has not threatened to use in the course of this recent trade fight. If they threaten it, the calculus would change: "The U.S. debt to China is $1.18 trillion as of June 2018. That's 19 percent of the $6.2 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. The rest of the $21 trillion national debt is owned by either the American people or by the U.S. government itself." https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-it-own-3306355.
4
China has strong sense of history and
America doesn't. It remembers 1840s when
Europe, Japan. USA ganged up against it
and forced the market opening for trade
particularly opium . Many Americans
made fortunes selling opium to China,
Joseph Kennedy among them. Those calling
for Europe, Japan to join USA in pressuring
China should know that China will not bow
down this time as it calls 1840s and the
subsequent period as the century of humiliation.
Cuba didn't beg for mercy.Chinese economy
is too big to yield to pressure.
Those who think that Chinese exports of
$500Billion will suffer are wrong. Chinese
value added is probably half. It imports the
components from S.Korea, japan, Malaysia,
Germany and pay them out of $500Billion
it collects from USA. Net effect on China is
smaller than the journalists mention. This
is the reason China won't yield to the pressure.
3
I'm pretty sure China's 100 year plan includes some provisions for an uncooperative White House. Move over Russia there's a new kid in town...let the hacking begin.
1
Has it escaped notice that China is currently the sole source of many strategic materials, including those used in the manufacture of all types of electronics? Debating how we got to this point doesn't solve the problem. Could we find other alternatives? Possibly, but not in the short term. Our challenge is that Trump relies on his gut, not his brain, to craft US policy. Trump may ultimately prevail but he's chosen a risky course.
2
When Trump fights alone, he makes deals with whole nations-- to benefit Trump Inc. first, and the US as an afterthought. Breaking up trade agreements means he sticks his greasy palms into the 'action', looking for 'a piece'. Forget the rest of the world, and the nation as a whole, and revel in the spoils and riches of our errant king.
1
Trump is getting the credit for Obama's economy.
Will Trump cling to office long enough to be blamed for the inevitable recession he is causing?
Or will a Democrat who succeeds Trump be blamed for Republicans' relentless destruction of the American economy?
4
Fascinating...as Spock would say. All the hoo rah about Trump and the tariffs and the economy. The effect of what he's done won't show up for awhile so anyone thinking he's doing well may have another think coming in the months ahead.
What everyone seems to forget is that Trump, prior to getting elected Trump mismanaged his businesses to the tune of six (count 'em 6) bankruptcies to correct all the bad decisions he made.
Good luck all you Trumpies. I can't wait to see the look on your faces when it all comes crashing down.
5
The very idea that we can solve or even contain the major problems facing all of us without good relations between China and the USA is insane.
Nuclear proliferation, Global warming, pandemic, terrorism, open shipping across the globe all require the USA, China along with most of the rest of the world to have good working relationships and a continued development of International norms of behavior and law.
The Global approach that the Trump administration is taking is undermining all standards, breaking alliances and destroying trust.
Worse the Chinese people, Europeans, Canadians along with billions of other people who looked toward the USA as a beacon to advance standards of decency and trust as completely untrustworthy. That will impact US brands, employment and worse when or if we are every attacked again no one will come to our aid.
We have lots of competitors in the world. Competition is good for everyone. That doesn't mean we don't have rules and referees. Strengthen the rules but play by them.
This bullying and breaking of all standards of behavior and developed institutions that are in place to allow Americans and everyone else to compete and thrive in the world shouldn't be destroyed over what are at best minor disagreements.
16
Sadly, people, before and now and probably forever, feel "great" when they have a defined enemy to fight.
1
“Doing this without the E.U. and Japan fully on board as though Chinese unfair trade practices were only a bilateral problem is wrongheaded and certainly less effective,” he said. “But it’s very hard to galvanize your allies when you impose steel and aluminum tariffs on them and threaten auto tariffs.”
This is the comment of the year. Stop picking completely irrational fights with Canada and Europe, remove the tariffs, and get everyone on board to pressure China. Then you would see results.
10
Remember, the last Cold War put us on the moon, for all the good that did.
Yes, but it also took us one hair-width close to this Cold War turning nuclear Hot. I would not want to take such another ‘chance’.
1
Tariffs are taxes. It's hard to understand the logic of lowering taxes to encourage economic growth while simultaneously raising tariffs.
And if there ever was any serious intent to change China's behavior, a mentally sound person might have tried to coordinate efforts with other economic powers. Yet mental midget Trumpolini also waged trade wars with what might have been called allies some time ago. In essence encouraging trade outside of the USA. I'm not expecting the deplorables-cult to understand how this works, but I always considered trade to be one of the remaining strengths of the Republican party. Guess that also went into the ideological trash can that is remaining of this party.
8
Mr. Trump is right in this matter
@Ugly and Fat Git He may be right, but so is your average 5th grader. Knowing what the problem is and knowing how to solve it are two rather different things.
6
Trump bases major policy moves on his emotions after watching the Fox News propaganda or getting a phone call from someone. It is not based on data, economic theory, reality, or anything tangible and defensible.
Ditto for everything else Trump does. Which reminds me, where is the wall and has Mexico promised to pay for it yet as part of the revision of NAFTA??
3
Trump's general ignorance of how governments function, and his school boy understanding of trade will result in another deep recession. All those dollars we send to China come back to us when they buy government bonds to finance our overspending. When that stops, interest rates will go up, the entire economy will slow to a crawl and voila, welcome back to 2007.
Trump operates from one simple notion that power and fear are motivators. Maybe, if you're Liechtenstein, but not if your China.
This is going to get real ugly real soon. Buckle up.
4
As from this article:
"Mr. Price said the Trump administration had done a good job of cataloging China’s abuses: theft of intellectual property, forced transfer of technology from foreign companies, predatory joint venture agreements."
The trade dispute with China is where Americans should be 100% behind President Trump.
China is a kleptocracy. It is a fascist state. It cares nothing for the rules of law, human rights, the environment or the good of humanity - not for its own people and certainly not for any other people. They are seeking hegemony in Asia and subjugation of other nations to their goal of world dominance.
Too many Americans have sold out this country over the past 40 years through deindustrialization and off-shoring. So what if we have to pay more for Chinese trinkets, baubles, cheap clothes and, most of all, products that would be subpar if they weren't built using stolen American and other nations intellectual property?
This is the new Cold War of the 21st Century. Trump is finally standing up for America and what is right in this world. This soft war that must be won for the good of America but more so for the good of all the world.
And, just like Eastern Europe, once China has been brought to heel, in the best case, it will embrace the concepts of Western rules and laws. In the worst case, it will devolve in to a myriad of petty fiefdoms fighting among themselves, similar to much of its history.
1
@Common Sense
Don't count on it. China is a society that has existed for over 2000 years and unlike America, their leadership and policy decisions are determined long term and don't have to worry about such things as "elections".
America will eventually have a new President and government, they will wait.
3
Oh. So we just give up those "Chinese baubles," like, oh, phones, TVs, car parts and so on. Does that include the $600 million minimum Trump owes Bank of China?
And then, come the day, China will be "brought to heel," leaping froggily when we say leap. Right. And if they don't, hey, let a billion people--in a nation with a large Army, Navy and nukes--descend into civil war and chaos, and we'll be sitting pretty.
Honestly, do you people ever read what you write?
4
@Deus
Nonsense.
"China" as a construct has had many meanings and variations over the centuries. Up until the first few centuries of the Common Era (aka post-BC, aka AD, aka Year of Our Lord), China was any number of feuding kingdoms and warlord states.
Why, even up until the Nationalist were driven from the mainland, in the early part of the 20th Century it was a civil war between them and the Communist.
The current construct of Communist China is far from set in stone and in no way a continuation of millennia of "oneness", contrary to what their leaders may want the West to believe.
I still don't believe Trump graduated college. Not on his own merit anyway. There's no way you can get economics this wrong and still pass an introductory class. I know; I taught economics to underclass students for several years. There is absolutely no way a student can graduate from Wharton with such a terrible understanding of basic economic principles without cheating. Period. I don't believe Trump graduated college. He might hold a diploma but he sure didn't do the course work.
9
The Republican trade war has put central valley farmers in California at great peril. It is ashame the Republican members of Congress have been so ineffective in protecting them. I imagine this is playing out the same way in fields and factories across the nation. The small businessman, consumers, and the workers bear the pain so that the rich can reap the rewards. Trump is hurting China, but he is also going to bankrupt a lot of Americans, and unlike him, they won't have daddy's money to bail them out.
4
It is not even close to being "mad at each other" nevermind a new "cold war" I can't believe they allow this title. Trump is handling this issue without firing a bullet. He is doing a great job on this issue and should have free reign to close the deals.
Everyone gets caught up in the drama and sensationalism of media coverage concerning Trump. You may not like his negotiating style and his politics. As we've seen, what he says or tweets vs. what he actually does can conflict often. China does need to come to the table and trade policies of the past have run their course of some things need to change. You may not like his tactics, but the President seems to get our challengers to the negotiating table. But stop all the dooms day drama please!
2
@Right of Center..."but the President seems to get our challengers to the negotiating table."....Yeah right, like the nuclear disarmament agreement he reached with North Korea, or the separate trade deal with Mexico which hardly does anything more than change the name of NAFTA, or forcing Iran to come begging on their knees. Lots of noise and no results.
11
@Right of Center
Sorry, but in Trump's world, intimidation and confrontation is the only thing he knows, BUT, it often doesn't work in a world in which he is totally unfamiliar. China was about to "come to the table".
Once "The Tweetster" placed this second set of tariffs on them, they chose to make other plans.
6
Perhaps the recent 200 billion tax (aka tariff) #45 levied on the middle class can be used to slightly reduce the amount of money we need to borrow from China (the party we are at trade war with) to replace the taxes that the the 1% no longer pay.
Isn't levying taxes require an act from the house? How is it possible that a single ignorant and unstable individual has the power to levy arbitrary taxes on a whim?
Article I, Section 8, Clause 1:
The Congress shall have Power to lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States.
1
The US/China trade relationship was a major factor in the Chinese economic renaissance over the last 20 years. Now, the China ruled by the ruthless Chinese Communist party (remember the Tienamen massacre 1989) is throwing its economic and new military weight around, confronting the US and its neighbors in the South China Sea, attempting to overtake the American businesses operating in Asia and strong arm neighbors into supporting China's aggressive moves. At home, all dissent is squelched with arrests, prison camps, censorship and other lawless behaviors. Tariffs may not be the best approach to this issue, but the cold war starting between the US and China is really being caused by China's policies to establish it as the leading power in Asia and the rest of the world and to do it by any means. The US, the world's leading democracy and leading economic and military power in the world for the last century, is just standing there looking at the China of today and is dumbfounded into inaction.
China has been fighting this war for decades--and it hasn't always been cold (Korea and Vietnam come to mind). Trump is merely the first American president to push back, and very mildly at that, since our last proxy war in Vietnam. China's cold war has been multifaceted and global:
--dominance over the mineral properties in the Congolese mineral belt, formerly Katanga province, through investments as well as infiltration by Chinese intelligence
--de facto economic control over Malaysia and Indonesia through ethnic Chinese business networks that dominate the economies.
--development of airbases in the Spratly Islands placing almost all of SE Asia within immediate striking distance, especially population centers such as Manila, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, and Jakarta
--support of the Thai communist party with financing and materiel
--widespread industrial espionage in the US with wholesale theft of aerospace, military, semiconductor, software, financial, and biotechnology intellectual property
--global infiltration of major universities through emigres with ambiguous national loyalties
--cleavage of Western-leaning countries such as Taiwan, Japan, Australia, New Zealand through economic sweeteners backed by an implicit threat of future force. Many of these relationships have emphasized publicity directed at improving the attitudes of ordinary people toward China.
2
Trump doesn't even know that he doesn't know what he's doing.
Nor does he care.
2
Trump's chaos theory of politics will destroy America and will take down the rest of the World with it. Ray Sipe
1
So we create jobs manufacturing cheap stuff for Walmart while the Chinese go the next phase of creating jobs for the future. Who wins here?
2
Just as soon as the rest of the world starts dumping US$ for gold of which we don't have as much as they do, bye bye the petro dollar.
Trump isn't playing checkers with go players is he?
It remains to be seen how Trump's tariff war with China will end, since he has alienated America’s friends and allies – the EU, Japan, Canada etc, who share the same complaints about China’s trade practices – by imposing tariffs on their imports to the US. Lacking an international coalition to confront Beijing, he is now on his own.
Under pressure, China has been embarking on a charm offensive in recent months.
Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe shook hands amicably during a meeting on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, on Sept. 12. It was the second time they met since they hailed a “fresh start” to the relationship between China and Japan on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in the Vietnamese resort city of Danang last November. Brought together by Trump, the two antagonists are trying to put aside their current differences and grievances.
5
It will take 3-5 years for domestic manufacturing to fill the void of tariffs. Trump needs to signal and make sure they last that long in order for companies in the United States to invest and expand their capacity. China is a large market but is dwarfed by the latent potential of a United States moving towards self-reliance. It is also a boon to all other countries in the world which are trying to play by global rules and work the U.S. for market access.
1
The issue is jobs. If Trump’s heavy-handed approach ultimately brings more jobs to South Carolina, or to Mexico for that matter, it will be a major win for our country, both economically and politically.
Of course, the factories supplying those jobs will be Chinese-owned. For those readers watching their stock portfolios, or small businesses struggling to survive a rocky transition, this will be a mixed blessing. http://tinyurl.com/y8ut4yhz
But one thing is clear, unless we solve our jobs problem, we’re unlikely to solve our political problems. Yet this fraught word, "jobs," appears hardly at all in the reader comments here.
Perhaps this unconcern about jobs among presumably liberal Democratic readers of The Times explains why the Democrats have been so long banished to the political wilderness, and why, for all the talk of a "blue wave," they may yet find themselves there after the midterms.
Yes, joint action with Europe and Japan against China may have been preferable. But at least Trump—I’m no fan, believe me—is doing SOMETHING. When they had the opportunity, the Democrats did nothing about jobs, instead making convoluted free-market excuses—"those jobs are gone, and they’re not coming back"—branding themselves as a self-serving elite among a fast swathe of the American public.
3
In response to Eb
The TPP was designed to contain China's by crimping her economic expansion. China had the right to join, but de facto this was not going to happen
As to its purpose:
" In fact, you may not expect to hear this from a Secretary of Defense, but in terms of our rebalance in the broadest sense, passing TPP is as important to me as another aircraft carrier"
Ash Carter, US Secretary of Defence, April 8, 2015
For details read
https://thediplomat.com/2015/04/tpp-as-important-as-another-aircraft-car...
7
@Woof
"The TPP was designed to contain China's by crimping her economic expansion."
Actually the TPP was designed by 500 corporate lawyers with no public or Congressional input to be primarily another Citizens United-style power grab. All else was a very distant second thrown in for cover. The core was the Investor-State Dispute Settlement system.
TPP was a corporate-rigged agreement that would have allowed corporations, foreign and domestic, to sue a country for unlimited damages (and seize government property like ships and airplanes if they did not pay) adjudicated by a panel of three corporate lawyers, and with no right of appeal. They could sue and win if a country's laws (e.g. environmental or labor or public health laws) disallowed their business. They would be awarded all the profit they would lose by having to comply with those laws, plus their millions in legal fees.
Note that the court was stacked with corporate lawyers.
Organizations of people around the world rose up and delayed and finally stopped this power grab by global corporations. The beneficial aspects of international standardization were window-dressing.
This was not a trade agreement as only six of the 30 chapters were about trade - the rest were about corporate power - as one would expect from 500 corporate lawyers working in secret.
Obama tried to push this through for an up/down vote by working with congressional Republicans and was opposed by Democrats, Progressives, and unions.
1
In Xi Ping, the Mango Mussolini has met his match. China will simply diversify its trade throughout the world as it's been threatening to do. That will take time and include some pain, but when China is done it will be sitting pretty. The US won't.
4
Reporting as if Trump has caused China under Xi to be hostile to America is a lie.
Trump is a clown who doesn’t have policies.
Xi is a would be emperor who has made it an ideological goal to fight with the US and assert hegemony over all of its neighbors including killing Taiwanese to teach them who is boss.
The Times has one reporter who has covered this and even had a Chinese writer’s opinion piece recently on Xi and the hereditary party elite take over.
Yet publishing lies about the source of Chonese American conflicts is the far more common occurrence at the Times.
This ain't the cusp. We are swirling the bowl brothers. Please ! let us stop now. War in large or small is an absolute disaster. Do not do this.
5
Can't wait till the fools who voted for Trump and his charlatan Republicans show up at Walmart this Xmas and find their flat screen TV's and power tools slapped with a 20 percent "tariff tax."
Suckers who vote for Republicans get what they deserve.
8
Popular with his political base? You must man the underpaid southerners who shop at Walmart! Your kids are not going to have s great Christmas. Meanwhile his rich base can easily pay for these with those crazy tax cuts.
8
It is all about winning with this hopeless baboon.
We keep having to go down to his primitive level with everything. And who knows how long it will take to recover from Trump.
7
This so called "president" who slithered into the Oval Office cannot grasp even the most basic concepts of economics. All of his views and actions are rooted in making a profit. He wanted to pull our troops out of S. Korea based on the money being spent to keep them there, totally ignoring the strategic benefits it provided especially the capabilities to monitor N. Korea combined with a system that gives us almost immediate warning of a N. Korean missile launch. He caused a colossal "freak out" of his entire W.H. staff when it was discovered he was prepared to withdraw all American dependents living in S. Korea while backing out of one of the largest economic pacts we have with ANY country, a move that would have given N. Korea the idea that an attack by the U.S. was imminent. The draft letter that was to notify S. Korea of Trump's intent to scrap the treaty was one of the items that was taken from his desk by a staff member, possibly saving us from WWIII. This "president" views everything in terms of how much money he can accumulate instead of governing and leading a nation. He's totally ignorant to the economic and military intertwining that the U.S. has with many countries in addition to S. Korea.
18
A willfully created trade war between the USA and China? Another milestone reached on the March of Folly...
13
This confrontation is the result of China militarily challenging the US, breaking previous promises.
"As for the South China Sea, President Xi Jinping broke the promise he made to Barack Obama in 2015 not to militarise China’s installations there"
The Economist, 9-13-2018
China is using the $ 300 Billion sent annually from the US in the trade deficit increasingly to make China great again.
Read
"With Ships and Missiles, China Is Ready to Challenge U.S. Navy in Pacific"
NY TImes, 8-28-2018
"“China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States,”
Adm. Philip S. Davidson, written remarks
Senate confirmation 3/2018
Something had to be done.
2
I actually think that playing hardball has the potential to be effective --but I don't trust Trump to have the wisdom to take "yes" for an answer answer and accept a reasonable compromise on trade. He is a blunt weapon.
FWIW, one of the things being lost here is that the US trade deficit with China is actually a trade deficit with E. Asia, since China-based manufacturing from S. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, etc. all gets counted as Chinese exports.
4
"And while the tariffs are unpopular with Republican lawmakers, farmers and manufacturers, his trade approach remains popular with his political base."
Are democrats, like Bernie, reading this? This is the most illuminating statement that explains a right-of-center country in which republicans are the default option, and why democrats are analogous to Sisyphus.
Trump's base (which is really all republicans, not some imaginary fraction) is unconcerned about trade, economy, prosperity, or any such.
When the left talks about progressive values, the country hears it as "you are going to take my money to help 'them' and empower 'them' - which places me at a relative disadvantage."
It is the morbid fear, loathing of 'them' - otherwise known as ethnic hatred, is what the left's propositions stimulate among Americans. Yet, the American left continues with its appeals that produce disastrous outcomes for them.
The right has figured this out rather well. Talk of rugged individualism, family values, christian values, low taxes, small government. Rile against education, math, science, gender equality, equal rights, justice, and promote pollution, ignorance, warfare. These are safe derivatives of the bedrock of racial fear and loathing. The average republican voter happily shoots herself/himself in the foot (economically) in order to gain socially (basically criminalize everyone who is not christian white male).
Thank you for the enlightenment Mr. Lander.
4
China is behaving the same way that Japan did in the early 1930's and we need to be prepared to stop their aggressive moves to capture more territory around the world whether by occupation of empty islands or by strong arming African countries into borrowing huge amounts that cannot be repaid. The US and western people need to understand that Russia is not the enemy - China is. We need to work out a détente with Russia asap so that we are not looking at a 2 front war.
2
No, Russia is our enemy too.
"Mr. Trump himself seemed to dangle the prospect that he, and he alone, could broker a resolution that threatened to cause economic pain to companies and consumers on both sides of the Pacific."
Mr. Trump, Can we the American consumers expect to find empty shelves in Wal-Mart for our holiday shopping? Is that your idea of putting "Merry Christmas" back into our greetings?
5
One of the few things Trump has got right. Should of happed years and years ago but Washington was to weak so now it’s prime time and yes they will break first at least economically. I’m all for this and Americans should buy American first and for most support your neighbors not a foreign country
Trump has been good for Canada.Why. We are finally trying to diversify from overdependence on trade with the US.Plus we do not have the crazy weather hitting the States.
7
We've been in a trade war with China for decades. The casualties have been American jobs, wealth, trademarks and technology and the forcing of dangerous and substandard imports on the American people. Trump is the first president to defend the US in this war.
Did Kerry also tell the Chinese leadership to wait it out, Trump will be gone or made irrelevant soon and China can resume defecating on us? No need to negotiate?
The trade war and other disputes between US and China will continue for a long time. One mountain can't have two tigers. This was a common Chinese expression saying that the world is only allowed to have one superpower. America has been the only superpower since WWII. The second tiger was sleeping and now woke up by Trump. I am too old to see the conclusion of this trade war started by Trump.
2
So, is it safe to assume this could be a big payday for Trump personally? I mean its all about him to begin with and it would not be surprised to see him benefitting from this action, now costing US citizens real money
1
Trump is hurting China with the tariffs. The fact is that China has grown greatly since Nixon’s opening up of relations by producing huge amounts of goods for export and the U.S. has been it’s biggest buyer. It will sometime have a large enough domestic market to sustain itself without the U.S. but not yet. Meanwhile the U.S. needs for China to be a market for it’s goods in the not too distant future because the U.S. market has no where to grow. There remains room for negotiations but there must be an end to this trade war. The U.S. private sector is not going to duplicate the capacity that exists in China because in the end the global capacity will exceed demand and that will take all the profit out of trade in those goods. The U.S. needs to stop China’s unfair practices without letting this trade war go on for an extended time.
But negotiations are always iffy when the negotiators are not perceived to have the full support of the authority with the final say. That seems to be a serious issue in this case. Trump’s policies are never clear and that works against his negotiators.
It would seem that going it alone eliminates the constraints of alliances but it reduces the power that can be exerted as well as the potential for endless side deals that could weaken the force applied. The U.S. is the only super power in the world but it’s share of power is not great enough to exceed that of all others if some how all others turned against it.
38
@Casual Observer I seem to recall that opening China's market to our goods was the biggest selling point for the deal, which is now decimating our working class and undermining our industrial base. When that market didn't open, the politicians over the past 30 years had no response. Leave it to 45, who realizes that we are the frog being slowly boiled in hot water. As usual, his instincts are correct, yet his follow thru is badly bungled.
1
@Casual Observer Well said! Agree with you strongly!
@John
U.S. corporations were very eager for China to open up commercial opportunities but what they did is interesting, they competed to open factories in China which sold goods both in China and the U.S. At the time, the average income of the Chinese was very small, they could not be much of a market at that time, but they were a great opportunity for high and sustained economic expansion from just building all the capital intensive infrastructure and industrial manufacturing facilities. The corporations doing business with China continued to close plants that needed upgrades in the U.S. which produced the goods which they were making in China.
I disagree with Trump and his administration on virtually all fronts - except this one. Having spent a career in business, I'm very well-aware of China's history of theft of intellectual property, forced transfer of technology from foreign companies, predatory joint venture agreements, and inaccessible markets. Trade negotiations with them in the past have never rectified any of these issues. In the case of China, these blunt moves are finally forcing them to reconsider. And that's a good thing.
67
@Tom I don't see how the tariffs themselves will address the issues you listed. In most cases the US does not produce what the tariffs are imposed on. In practice the cost of those items will go up and people will grit their teeth and buy them anyways because there is no alternative. I don't see how that addresses theft of intellectual property, forced transfer of technology from foreign companies, predatory joint venture agreements, etc. It seems that more direct action against those particular issues is needed as opposed to tariffs, which are just an added tax on Americans for goods they purchase.
@Tom Explain what stealing intellectual property has to do with tariffs.
IBM sold their PC business to a Chinese company. China sells the laptops by the name Lenova. The deal included all intellectual property, all trade secrets, everything. This is not theft. It was the sale of a business to a Chinese company. Who is to blame here at giving away patents, etc? IBM.
U.S. company after company have moved their manufacturing to China out of sheer greed to get rich off of using slave labor, a country with no environmental laws and no conscience toward their workforce.
@Tom
What evidence do you have the China is reconsidering anything other than dumping the trillion dollars it holds on the open market and bankrupting the U.S. treasury?
So far, China has effectively retaliated against every move Trump has made - just ask the Iowa farmers and North Carolina car manufacturers.
At least you are correct about every other issue.
1
I grew up in Asia during the cold war. There were two sides - US and USSR. The world was divided into Pro USA or Pro USSR. I was living in a Pro USSR country. However, a majority of us respected the USA for what it stood for and hoped that we would switch sides. America was the beacon of hope, freedom and generosity.
In the new cold war (if there is one) the world will once again take sides. And it begs the question, who is on our side now! Everywhere I travel people ridicule our President and in more serious conversations they say we cannot trust the US anymore. Our generosity is replaced by fear mongering. Our free trade advocacy has morphed into tariffs. We impose sanctions and cripple the "common man". We withdraw from all treaties. We are out here alone- cold and lonely. We cannot win this way!
157
@SridharC
You know, America's friends are like our personal friends: as long as you keep plying them with free drinks, they hang around. The moment you ask them to pay for their own, they leave fast.
Trump is asking all the countries to pay for their access to US market, by not running huge trade surpluses. Surpluses, we are told by the globalists, don't matter. They certainly matter to the people of the US. There is a reason why China, Japan, EU and every other country want to run trade surpluses: because it affects the lives of their citizens. Why is Japan fighting tooth and nail to not have bilateral negotiations with US? Because they know they'll be asked to surrender their surpluses. If not, US will close access to its markets, just as Japan is closing access to its markets. American citizens' standard of living is affected by trade deficits, American wages have been stagnant for a long time. So, as much as I am against other Trump's policies, on this one he's absolutely correct.
@SridharC I am a Canadian; for my retirement I had bought a condo in Florida since 2012 . In the fall of 2016 I was on the market for a sailboat ...then Trump was elected. I stop looking for a US boat and,in the fall of 2017, sold my condo.From time to time I charter a boat in the BVI or on the Med.IMHO we shall get out of NAFTA and take a break in order to see what will happen of the USA.What the GOP did to your country is despicable and Trump is the cherry on the sunday; it is very sad.I hope you will be able to change direction in November...I hate the winter in Quebec.Best of luck
We must be permanently isolated from the world stage.,We are a depraved nation.
China will be fine no matter the tariffs, but the United States will have alienated a critically important supporting country. China should be and wishes to be a friend to the US.
4
@Nancy
Obama insinuated Huawei built a backdoor in its products. and the Trump administration forbids fed employees from using Huawei products.
that's protectionism disguised as security threat and sabotaged the Huawei brand all in the same breath. why fight a no win battle. Huawei will leave the US market.
it is not far fetch as you think China will head down that same path. why keep a bad relationship going?
1
In this whole discussion, there is a massive, unanswered question that no one will answer: exactly how much more does it cost to build something in America vs. China.
Take a bicycle for example. How many hours of labor does it take to build a bicycle of similar quality? How much more does American labor cost? Take the hours, multiply it by the labor differential, subtract the cost of shipping, and add the cost of environmental protection. Now you have a number that can be used to make an informed decision.
Without numbers, we Americans are left to guess how much more everything would cost if we built it here. Will it be a major difference, or just a few percentage points? We don't know, so we are left to guess.
Meanwhile I suspect that American companies will overstate the differential so that they can overcharge for the made-in-America premium. Again, without numbers, we cannot make an informed decision, or vote wisely in our own best interests.
4
Just suspended ALL imports from China for 90 days.
Let the South China Sea become a parking lot of container ships.
Then we talk.
1
everyone wants cheap products, if u don't want them, there will be someone who wants them.The real advantage of us is not those goods
Not a solution...this is not the 19th century or even the mid-20th century.
On-time-production of the 21st century means losing a day is costly.
Imagine the reaction of John Q Public when their consumer goods are unavailable the price has tripled during 90 days. The Trumpistas would go on a nutty demanding Saint Michael Pence take control of this Hellbound Trump Train.
2
That’s a tough comment, for sure.
The result would be the collapse of the world economy in a few months, as this would block the flow of parts critical to industries elsewhere. But who cares as long as the USA appears to be tough... and suicidal.
2
It is important that you Americans understand that to the eyes of old allies in Europe, this "cold war" is one of your own making. A completely frivolous, unnecessary malady on the world. Every single euro of growth lost in it is on your tab, and by every single new indignity and idiocy, China looks the more trustworthy and reliable of you two.
46
@Pete
Ouch!
@Pete
I, and I believe, many other Canadians agreeing with you on the "cold war" being one of Trump's making.
Canada is being threatened once again in US-Canada trade talks; Trump continues to tell lies about Canadian trade policies; and many Canadians are boycotting U.S goods,services and travel , in retaliation.
Trump, and the US government he leads, cannot be trusted. May the Con Don soon be gone!
1
How is it possible that y'all don't get the fact that if you did not BUY the cheap Chinese stuff they would not be able to SELL it here! You want blue-collar manufacturing jobs here, with good wages, but you want the cheap prices that are the result of low wages. Get a grip, people, you can't have it both ways.
What are you going to say when China decides to not buy any more of our bonds? Or don't you realize they own this country? We got ourselves into this mess with our profligate ways, and now we don't like the results. Trade wars instigated by a bankrupt con artist are not the solution, that is for sure.
24
@Nina
You have a good point and I would like to add some context.
The middle and upper class lifestyle is continually marketed to the masses. One cannot escape the birrage of billboards and ads that litters virtually everywhere we look. Starting at childhood we are basically programmed to want "stuff." Those who couldn't afford that lifestyle were empowered via credit cards and cheap goods. The affluent don't jump for $10 blue jeans. I can hardly place the blame on the people when corporations hoard cash and refuse to pay a living wage or benefits. They have all the power with none of the responsibility for creating the culture that we live in. Those who benefited don't live among the working class so they can pretend their hands are clean. Sadly we've traded family values for material goods and I don't see that changing any time soon.
4
The U.S. and China have opposing world views, and it is foolish to ignore them. Trade (the billions we have been sending them) has been the weapon that China has been using to undermine our influence around the world. We might as well start our conflict with China while we are the stronger. It will do us no good to wait and hope for the best as they grow stronger and we grow weaker.
2
"Trump Has Put the U.S. and China on the Cusp of a New Cold War"
Good.
2
And what happens when the Chinese turn back all the Treasury Bills at once? Economic disaster for the U.S. economy.
2
Nothing is more stupid and economically ruinous than starting a trade war between the world's two largest economies. And nothing is more stupid than expecting the Chinese to help us contain North Korea's nuclear ambitions while trying to destroy China's economy with tariffs. Does the moron in the White House ever think about the consequences of his actions?
35
Will Walmart change their "Save money, Live Better" motto? Let's see how long it takes them to spread their love to their followers.
China is typically a long-term, meticulous and careful planner informed by well-educated ministers drawing from thousands of years of experience and research of history.
Trump? -- not so much.
20
@D.A.Oh
“China is typically a long-term, meticulous and careful planner informed by well-educated ministers drawing from thousands of years of experience and research of history.”
Really? Is this the same China that killed millions in its cultural revolution?
@D.A.Oh
Yes, China has been around for thousands of years, in the US we don’t even have a plan for next week.
The tariffs are a path to economic destruction. Production of low-cost items will migrate around Asian countries to avoid US tariffs, knitting these nations closer to China. China will accelerate further the development of its technology sector. The best the US can hope for is a handful of low-skilled, low-paying jobs while suffering from significant domestic economic disruption and detachment from global economic integration and growth.
5
Trump ran his businesses into the ground and he's attempting to do the same with the United States. Our nation has always taken a dim view of monarchs and petty tyrants Trump admires with his quip, "...by myself and President Xi of China, for whom I have great respect and affection...” American banks didn't consider Trump credit worthy leaving him to plea with Russian oligarchs for support along with an apparent offer to launder their cash. Our foreign policy has become colonial in our attempt to define how other countries define joint ventures or offer loans through state banks. Americans need in-country partners to conduct business in most countries, a requirement that existed in our country, too. Criticism of state owned banks means the Trump administration should oppose the Bank of North Dakota, a cooperative owned by the residents or CA State Compensation Insurance Fund, the state owned worker's compensation program that was available to every California business until conservatives in the 1950s required business to apply and be turned down by at least two private insurance companies before being covered by State Fund like my business. Yes, the damage Trump is doing to our great nation will continue long after he leaves because business leaders don't take kindly to charlatans who destroy years worth progress like Trump has done with his bankruptcies, suppliers he stiffed, and students he defrauded. He's defrauding us and his signature accomplishment is our isolation.
11
There already was a cold war with China, but only China was fighting. The US was cravenly willing to trade dollars to overlook behavior far outside international norms, from currency manipulation to theft of intellectual property to a cultural genocide against the Uyghurs. Shame on those who accepted this and are fighting against the US position. We should be much tougher than we are. Don't pretend you care about human rights and ignore what China is doing to the Uyghurs.
2
@Epistemology
we, the US is the biggest currency manipulator. what exactly is quantitive easing?
1
Free trade is a two-way street. Trump didn’t start a Cold War; China did, more than a dozen years ago. The US is finally acknowledging it.
1
I love all the cheap merchandise I get from China. I suspect I'm not alone.
3
@Epicurus
best value for my money.
Americans need to stop listen to Trump who is a demagogue and no economist! People need to start listening to to leading economists and top business leaders that are saying Trump is causing damage to the economy, investment and jobs. He is adding trillions to the deficit and has no idea how this recovery is going to end! If we have another recession how are we going to stimulate the economy? Start saving your money because this economy is the longest in history and is going to end soon!
6
In #Trumpian world view, America is a declining power that can only try to slow down China's technological development. Instead of investing in our schools and colleges, unsurprisingly Trumpians seek to bolster military. Their refusal to accommodate an emerging power puts us on course for real war, not just cold wars. As neither America and nor China can go head to head without mutual self-destruction, wars will be proxy, worldwide and debilitating for everyone else. The rest of the world should be on a red-alert notice and try to rein it in before its too late.
11
The antagonistic actions of this president toward other countries can only harm us in the long run. The antagonism toward China is saddening and will prove self-defeating and all for no reason. I am regularly in China and I only know the Chinese as friends.
7
There was an opportunity to contain the worst elements of Chinese behavior while encouraging good behavior and global integration. It was called the TPP and could have led to TPP+EU deals which would have covered most of the world economy ex-China. It was started by Obama and like all things Obama, Trump the fool promptly reversed it. Trump is not the person to unite all like minded countries to correct Chinese issues. In fact quite the opposite, we are likely to find ourselves in a situation where China is closer to many countries we would have liked to join in the TPP and we are alienated.
178
Hear, hear. There were elements that I found troubling in the TPP, but it was a meticulously crafted multilateral agreement that would have strengthened our capacity to thrive.
6
@Eb
Or, Trump's just trying to destroy America and its post WWII alliances as directed by Putin.
I don't think Trump is trying to "correct" anything at all!
1
I don’t understand why Congress ceded so much power to Trump on tariffs. Initially, he made a (bad) national security argument to claim he had authority. But it has snowballed well beyond that domain.
Sure, the policies play well to his base. But that can’t be our standard for global policy.
11
@BT12345 Trump is going to start a cold war with China. They are already moving closer to Russia and North Korea. His trade war is going to cause a slowdown of the best world economy in decades.
1
@BT12345 with Trump there is no foreign policy. Whatever Fopx & Friends puts into his mind for that day, becomes policy. If he thinks it will create $ that falls into his pocket, it then becomes policy. This man is an utter narcissistic moron!
1
This can’t be the beginning of a new Cold War. The one against the Soviet Union lasted for 44 years, while President Trump stated that trade wars are easy to win, so presumably short. As it was said in 1914.
3
Yes, every European adversary was sure that they would win a decisive battle at the onset in 1914 an that would be that. None were inclined to capitulate whether they won or lost any particular battle. This led to a big stalemate which was not accepted and led to a horrible long war with nobody willing to stop. The great empires and monarchies of Europe all were ended or so weakened that they lasted less than half a century longer, if that.
In a trade war the objectives have to be clear and the exit strategy must be clear as well or events could lead to unforeseen outcomes.
1
It is not complicated. Corporations moved factories and jobs to China and any other country that would decrease the labor costs and increase profits to stock holders. We can continue down that road with trade deficits until there is a very very rich elite and a very very poor majority. I realize lots of people will want to continue this short term strategy but I'd like to see us again become a manufacturing country. We have this short term problem and even more serious long term problems. Global warming and immigration. All these problems are interlinked and screaming for thoughtful steps towards a solution. First thing someone needs to talk about is the big elephant in the room. Over population and over consumption.
12
The US is 5% of the world population. It would be impossible for companies to compete globally if manufacturing was in the U.S.. If you want to sell products to the world you need to be competitive globally. The US will never make pot and pans again.
1
The U.S. will not produce goods and services more cheaply than any less well developed country on Earth. To meet that kind of competitiveness would mean almost all Americans would have to give up their property, their private transportation, their private wealth to meet those of the people in those less developed country. To survive our society would require most people to live very cheaply to cut labor costs drastically. It would destroy the market that the U.S. has provided for a century.
The ideal condition of competitive advantage requires creating new and special products wanted by everybody and available from mostly us. Bringing back mid-twentieth century industries like steel production powered by coal is a fool’s strategy.
3
One significant point in embracing free trade is that it would bind countries together and promote democracy. That’s failed with China and Russia - their is simply no reason to engage in trade with them on their terms. We have only created rivals. It is well-past time for that to stop. Trump is handling this very well so far.
4
@Scott L...Well put. Thank you.
@Scott L really? Creating a trade war is handling it well? Please explain as all we see here is trouble for the American consumer.
3
I don't agree with the tenor of the current headline ("Trump Has Put the U.S. and China on the Cusp of a New Cold War"). I think China has been in a Cold War relationship to the US since the opening in the 1970s, and I would say instead that Trump is now listening to advisors who want to acknowledge that state of things.
China, like Google, is one of those areas in our current political life where there is a lot of shared sentiment on both the right and the left of American political scenery. So it's an interesting choice for the Administration to have chosen to invest so much capital in a trade confrontation with China.
3
Nothing. we will gain nothing except the headache from our diminished stature in the world due to the incompetence of this idiot.
15
All this as the Republican Congress once again sits on the sideline and allows the president to do it's job.
Throw them out!
2
We have to start with the fact that the US is a rogue state that is bullying the entire world and that its President is an idiot who does not understand economics. Part of the problem of negotiating with Trump and the people around him is that they, literally, don't know what they are talking about. Thus, people who are actually knowledgeable are stymied by the stupidity. Beyond this, the US is in no position to bray about "trade practices." Putting aside the history of how the US developed, the US' is currently trying to destroy the WTO and impose illegal tariffs on its allies. When the US is breaking all the rules under Trump, what right does it have to accuse other of the same? Finally, the Trump administration is telling China that it cannot have an industrial policy and that, basically, it must remain subservient to Western powers. What self-respecting country would or could accept that? Even more, what about the US industrial policy, i.e, the hundreds of billions the US spends on its military? The incredible arrogance of the Trump administration, combined with its stupidity and sheer viciousness underline the reality that the US cannot be trusted with its power. The other countries of the world must work on a way to isolate the US and minimize the damage it does to the international system.
1
Who opened China - Nixon. Who invested billions in China - big corporations .Who has been for free trade and anti union. If you can answer these questions you can figure out which party created the problem of a rising China.
22
There was no stopping the rise of China, an off and on world power for over 2,000 years.
2
@dave
have you ever asked yourself why Nixon and Kissinger normalized relation with China? to counter Russia.
selective memory. we never do anything that would not benefit US short or long term.
2
I don't think that China will capitulate easily. When their economy tanks, and their cash reserves are depleted, they will realize that it's time to ease their protectionist policies. They have already stolen the knowledge required to compete for consumer goods and will continue to try to steal more sensitive military technology. If not, they may decide that militarization is the best way to keep their economy afloat. Choosing this path is likely something that Trump hasn't thought through, and responding to the threat will require commensurate spending on our part. Given the revenue cuts enacted and planned, they apparently aren't planning for this existential threat to our country. Elections have consequences.
3
Misleading title. Causes of a new Cold War are primarily due to radical moves by China. Summarily claiming ownership of the South China Sea and building bases. The Belt & Road initiative Is little more than a repeat of western imperialism. Only difference is China’s intention to export its social surveillance technologies, which it has implemented within China in conjunction with a social credit system, bearing a striking resemblance to the totalitarian nightmare of Orwell’s 1984. Then there’s Chinese spying on its own students abroad, internet attacks on American institutions, and outright theft of foreign intellectual property. Non-parity in market access has been the norm in Sino-US trade relations since the outset. The mass arrest and re-educational of Uighurs in Xinjiang is an abuse of political authority not seen since the tumultuous years of the 1950’s and 60’s - the height of the first Cold War. America allowed itself to be drawn into a dependence on Chinese goods in the hope that China’s political evolution would produce a society that American and the developed world can feel comfortable integrating with and secure doing business with. On both counts China has disappointed. Because of its size, China has the capacity to be an existential threat to America’s economy and polity if we do not cut her loose now and diversify our supply chains, including reestablishing some supply domestically. This is the only Trump policy I support.
4
@Kemaxiu Oh, I understand now. It's China fault that American consumers can't buy enough stuff in general and that American corporations, in their drive for ever-increasing profits, put factories in China even though the Chinese steal our intellectual property. It's the fault of the Chinese that American capitalists are short-sighted. As Lenin said, capitalists will sell me the rope with which I will hang them
8
An economic Cold War is exactly what Trump is creating in US / China relations
And just as the threat of mutual annihilation haunted the US / USSR Cold War, the same spectre now ominously appears
Why?
Because the interdependence of US and Chinese economies is so great it has been described by the term "Chimerica"
This means any damage one side inflicts on the other will -- sooner, rather than later -- end up causing grievous harm to itself
Trump and Navarro want to deny this, but it is self-evident to US farmers / corporate leaders / and consumers -- as well as American companies operating in China
Whatever problems may exist, they can be worked out -- but only in a framework of mutual respect, and acceptance of the inextricable linkage between two economic giants
By taking a confrontational, "my way or the highway" approach, Trump energizes and legitimizes Chinese elites that share his antagonistic, zero-sum view of US / China relations
To them, Trump is trying not just to hurt the Chinese economy, but blatantly interfering in their right to create a technologically advanced future
This makes them only more determined to resist what they see as unacceptable US pressure
The conflict between these "mirror image" antagonists will create precisely a New Cold War between US and China -- one that will irreversibly harm BOTH sides of a deeply interdependent relationship
The world was lucky to escape nuclear Armageddon
Is an economic one that much less frightening?
100
@Dr Dave You make a good point, but I would still place nuclear armageddon in the number one spot on the list of frightening possibilities. Hopefully China will not have to wait too long before we get our government sorted out.
1
@mary bardmess
Of course, Mary, a nuclear conflagration is one of the ultimate nightmare scenarios ...
That said, two points ...
1) Please remember the fear / insecurity / misery that ensued from the near-collapse of the global financial system in Black September 2008 ...
An economic war between the US and China would be even more severe -- and have even wider, more immediate ramifications -- than the 2008 disaster ...
2) Given how inter-twined the US and Chinese economies are, if this Cold War goes on for any extended period of time, there is good reason to fear the confrontation WILL become reality ...
Almost every SE Asian country is disturbed by the increasing Chinese military presence in the South China Sea, and are looking to the US to assert its traditional, post-WWII role as "external balancer" ...
However, the US military has been so decimated by the insane and useless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- and to a lesser extent in Yemen -- that American DETERRENT power has almost disappeared ...
If China feels the US has backed it into a corner economically, leaving it no visible, face-saving way out, there is good reason to think they may make some kind of military move in the South China Sea area ...
And if that happens, it will become clear how weak the US military has become -- which, given Trump's volatility, would make an escalation even more likely ...
So there's only a thin line between an economic and a potential military Armageddon ...
Trade should be between countries that are aligned similarly. China's intent with trade was never about trade. Rather it was about weakening the countries that it traded with so it could achieve its dream of becoming the sole superpower. The average person on the street realizes this in their gut. They know that every dollar sent over to China is a dollar that we are spending on empowering an enemy. Someone needed to say this and while it is not popular to give Trump credit for anything, especially on the pages of this newspaper, it has be accepted that he saw this clearly and said it bluntly. This war started in 1978 when China "opened up" and its leaders found in capitalist greed, the weakness through which they would hollow out the west and win. Trump has put a stop to that. No one denies China its right to advance. That right to advance should not come at the expense of colonizing everyone else. The blame for this cold war is squarely on China.
38
Easy there, Chicken Little.
I don't know why you think the average person on the street has ANY idea about China, nevermind your fantasy of a nefarious world domination.
But China does have over a billion mouths to feed and did just recover from a century of humiliation forced upon them by the West.
They're not looking for payback but they sure aren't going to be slapped around anymore.
If we were smart, we would -- like China -- recognize that the global economy is not a zero sum game.
China wants us to remain rich and powerful because that keeps us as a great trading partner to ensure THEY remain rich and powerful.
If only we had a president who could work out a deal with them . . .
10
@CommonSenseEconomics How is the Chinese intent any different that that of the USA? I can tell you that the rest of the world resents Chinese hegemony as much as it detests America's. The American way of life, our standard of living, is based on the military and economic subjugation of the rest of the world. We have become lazy, uneducated and inefficient thereby allowing China to become a threat. Blame Republicans for that by cutting taxes, regulations and letting our infrastructure deteriorate
2
@CommonSenseEconomics Kinda like cutting off our collective nose to spite our face. If we really viewed China as an enemy, wouldn't we unite our allies instead of attacking them too? Machismo is a cheap strategy.
6
Recent NYTimes reports by Keith Bradsher, Shanghai, shed a lot of light on this issue. His most recent noted that China is having a difficult time finding U.S. imports where tariffs would have any impact.
What Trumpland whiners don't understand is that the USA doesn't have much that China wants to buy.
This was described by an American businessman
with long experience in Asia, over thirty years ago.
Lookup: "Why Goliath Can't Export" (the Economist)
Trumplanders are sitting on a 1.3 billion pound
mountain of surplus cheese. Last year American
dairy farmers dumped over 100 million gallons
of surplus milk.
U.S. milk producers ramped up production thinking they would cash in on the export market. So did other major milk producers who have much more marketing global market expertise.
Seems the U.S. dairy industry didn't do much
market research, and now they want the taxpayers to subsidize their stupidity.
Mr. Trump annoyed Mexico, the biggest buyer of
U.S. dairy products, when he slapped a 25% tariff
on Mexican steel and aluminum. Mexico retaliated
with a 25% tariff on U.S. dairy products.
Can Mr Trump win a trade war? Not likely, the world
is too big and too diverse and Goliath is a slow learner.
"In guerrilla (and trade) warfare there are only winners and losers, there is no compromise."
That observation by Henry Kissinger should be posted on the wall of the Oval Office.
ancient Canadian economist with many years
experience in China and India
12
Trump creates problem; Trump solves problem. What a stable genius he is!
Except of course he isn’t. China isn’t going to concede to threats and punitive measures. The history of China from its opening by the Brits in the 18th century to the takeover by the Communists in 1949 has been marked by capitulation to foreign interests. Trump is a zero sum guy - if you’re not winning, you’re losing. Trying to negotiate with a foreign government in this way is not productive and all this does is entrench the Chinese even more. This whole episode will end badly for the American economy.
1
And the Democrats have put us in a new Cold War with Russia.
1
Russia isn’t our friend
They invaded Crimea, continually threaten the sanctity of the global financial system with their army of hackers, and poison enemies inside the borders of other countries with impunity.
If you think they are an ally, you are sorely mistaken.
4
I can't stand it anymore. I feel like I live in a reality television show every day. I hate it. I hate the Trump character in this show. I hate the awful plot of a country going down after a deal with Mephistopheles. I hate the drama every day of the mob boss president and his corrupt lieutenants and their corrupt intent, pretending it is politics. I hate the lack of serious study, the disbelief in science and disdain for the knowledge of history or economics and the resulting incompetence and chaos. I just hate it.
37
@William Trainor, this is understandable and what a lot of us are going through. But for one's own health and sanity, one has to switch off. Stop reading the news headlines more than once a day, stop watching TV. Take up hobbies like knitting or Taichi. Take long walks. You sound like I have been feeling. And I am not even American !
The Trump policy is really quite simple- Its the "Trump way or the highway". We have a man who is President who lacks the capacity to understand, to learn, and to surround himself with capable people. He has increased the taxes on the middle class via higher tariffs-yet he thinks that China is paying the tax. And he keeps repeating that. It's like 2+2=5 and his base believes that. There is significant proof that this man has repeadly sexual abused woman-and has used hookers to satisfy his needs-yet his base believes he is a wonderful person. His constant lying, on an hourly basis, is beyond the pale. Yet he remains in office and is able to continue to abuse his power. He travels the country running a 3 right circus at our expense. It is absurd and history will write that this was just not the worst President to have ever been elected but the American people will have be made to look like fools for having elected a moron.
12
Republicans like wars, any kind of war, as long as they can profit from the.
6
Have I missed something or is the US proposal by Mr Trump to have little or no tariffs and have proposed to protect intellectual property of US companies and citizens?
Sounds like a sound idea and certainly a positive situation for all US manufactures and consumers.
How is it fair or reasonable for any country to have excessive taxes and or tariffs on American made goods.
China caused this not the US.
The question is: If tariffs are implicated in the loss of congressional seats in November who will Trump blame?
1
If you've read the coverage on this you would know you should really be worrying about the reverse happening. Trump's base loves the tariffs and it is going to motivate them to get out and vote.
The Chinese tariffs are designed to have an impact in regions that Trump won in 2016 but could easily swing away from him.
This is technically a form of election meddling by the Chinese. Very blatant but light.
It could also backfire though. Trump could just keep bailing out these people who will never understand how Trump caused their problems in the first place.
3
Excellent news. Thank you Mr. President for Keeping America Great.
2
What about a new hot war? China is expanding its armed forces, and is seeking control of the south China sea. As long as the U.S. accedes to its military expansion. there will be no conflict. But that may end when a new Administration assumes power in the U.S.
1
Feel certain that all China would need to do is somehow disrupt iPhone production and that would break through to American consumers.
3
The US had an excellent idea to fight unfair Chinese trade practices. The US, along with all Pacific rim major countries, negotiated an excellent trade agreement to just that.
But, since it was negotiated by President Obama, Trump left the deal, and China stepped in the vacuum. And here we are; in an unnecessary trade war with China and we have no allies left to back us up. Trump is a one man wrecking ball to our country’s political and economic health.
326
@Demosthenes
Agree! Interdependence breeds cooperation and lessens the specter of armed conflict.
But hey, trump says he likes to fight...as long as he does not get bruised personally.
2
@Demosthenes
"The US had an excellent idea to fight unfair Chinese trade practices. The US, along with all Pacific rim major countries, negotiated an excellent trade agreement to just that."
Most people have not read the TPP, and I don't blame them for that.
But I did and I assure you it was as boring as any legal document written by 500 corporate lawyers could be.
24 of the 30 chapters were all about expanding global corporate power, so it was a "trade agreement" only for corporations.
Would have been great for corporations, but not for people - unless you still believe in trickle-down: that what benefits corporations will eventually benefit the workers.
The TPP was a pure corporate power grab with few trade benefits. Those few benefits were window dressing to sell the agreement. It did nothing explicit to curb China's growing trade power. In fact, the Chinese would have used it to push ahead with their own partnerships.
The TPP allowed a corporation to sue any country with national laws or regulations that would cut into their profits, like environmental laws. They could sue for all potential profits lost with no limit plus their legal fees.
The three "judges" were three corporate lawyers and no appeal was allowed.
The agreement was written in secret by corporate lawyers without public, media, or congressional input.
Championed by Republicans and Obama, it was opposed by unions, progressives, Democrats, and people everywhere.
Not just Trump.
@Demosthenes
Trump is right to criticize China's intellectual property theft and its demand for foreign companies to just hand it over. And joint ventures at predatory rates. But the US buys more from the world than it produces. Of course it will have a trade deficit! But how can you force the Chinese to buy as much from the US as the US imports from China? Americans buy stuff. The Chinese are savers. They do import grain and food. But what else they buy from the US is up to them. Obviously Trump played golf instead of attending Econ 101 or he would understand the difference between trade, current, and balance of payments accounts. Being afraid of a trade deficit without understanding the relationship between all these accounts is pure ignorance
1
Trump says:" [The Chinese] rebuilt their country with tremendous amounts of money pouring out of the United States, and I’ve changed that around.”
Ah, the joy of having a zero-sum mind: "If you are getting a benefit, I'm losing a benefit. There's no way that both of us could benefit."
China has the advantage of a centralized economy in this exchange. If foreign sales drop, the Chinese economy can easily put the unemployed to work on infrastructure projects at home, easing social unrest.
But if consumer spending drops here (and that's what drives our economy), our Republican government is loath to spend a penny on publicly funded infrastructure. And the tariffs are another tax on the working class to protect the capital gains of the investor class.
Which means that social tension is going to rise much more rapidly in the US than in China. How long will our working class support (and pay for) an economic war that's intended to benefit the investor class?
184
The US can start a war with China(Compared to Russia, they are in low nuclear arsenal). Wars cost much more than infrastructure projects. Unemployed workers can either work in the arms industry or become soldiers.
Believe me, the economy will look even better by then. In WWII, we boasted a low unemployment, a low inflation and a high GDP growth.
A major war will also stop those peasants from whining. They know it's an act of treason if they refuse to work for the country.
@Duane McPherson
Yes, China can easily put the unemployed to work on domestic projects as they did from 1950-1978. What a great leap forward!
I support Trump on this China trade issue. He is the first president to challenge and negotiate with our trading partners. Our previous presidents, including Bush, Clinton, and Obama, were very weak as presidents. Trump is doing an excellent job as president.
19
@Andrew Gockel
"He is the first president to challenge and negotiate with our trading partners."
That's not correct.
It just looks that way because of Trump's loud tweets. Every administration challenges during negotiations. We know exactly what we can give away as a concession to get what we need and want.
Our economy has been doing very well because of our expert trade negotiators - although only for the corporations and those in power - but that's a different issue.
Where the Trump approach falls down is in the long-term.
Prior administrations understood their negotiations to be complex and durable frameworks with built-in adaptive variables designed to perform while meeting the inevitable situational changes of time.
Whereas the Trump approach is simplistic, it's merely transactional, mostly designed to look good to his base so he can tweet himself a winner. The cost is pushed into the future for others to pay. He does this with everything and it leads inexorably to bankruptcy.
There is one possibility that Trump's approach is strategically smart. That's if it's not yet a negotiation, but a prepositioning for negotiation.
Then it could pay off. But Trump does not have the steady focus required to make the most of it. Once he gets his tweet, he thinks he's won and is off to find another "win".
3
Tell that to the farmers now on welfare.
@Andrew Gockel,
trumps predecessors were actively, yet quietly, working towards TPP and other trade agreements that would have significantly challenged China. We are currently in a trade war where trump is convinced he can bully China into submission. Again, the US will be bruised in this battle as well as China but without broad alliances the US will just be a temporal obstruction as China will learn to live without us. It is not accurate or useful to describe our leaders as week or strong as much as strategic and smart.
2
The economy and trade is a very complicated system. The Trump administration is simultaneously turning a lot of different "knobs/dials" on the machine really without any idea as to how the machine will react, including how other state actors will turn the knobs they control.
5
No, we now live in a fully capitalist world culture. If and when whatever administration chooses to have a more relaxed trading policy (it could be tomorrow knowing the flippant nature of this administration) it will be business as usual. And rest assured, the most wealthy corporations and individuals both here in the US, in China and globally will continue to make their billions.
2
Another aspect of this issue is, what is the limit of both the executive power and legislative power? According to Montesquieu, the executive power has its focus on diplomat, treaty, but it is not that obvious that it shall determine the trade deal and practices. The legislative power, has its lens focus on domestic law making, but has its tendency to 'grasp everything within its hands". If the democrats win the mid term, will they try to limit Trump's power on a full scale trade war, that evolves at least 600 billion values of trade, with China? I bet they will. Then the question becomes: Is it really a check and balance, or infringement of one power to another?
3
Trump is sowing the seeds of his own downfall. His trade policies will produce adverse effects for consumers and businesses long before they benefit workers; the benefits to workers will be spotty, small and slow-coming; the adverse effects will be widespread and obvious. Trump sees victory in the fact that he can use his power to force a result on China that China does not want. The problem is, America doesn't want it either.
6
Who would bet their life that any given Trump economic policy isn't conceived with an eye toward enriching himself and furthering his own interests or those in his administration?
His financial holdings and business opportunities are hidden from us and the dealings of his inner circle, like Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, are murky bordering on criminal.
So, every move is suspect when a leader and his administration have not fully revealed how those moves affect their fortunes.
I won't even mention the ramifications and nefarious possibilities of a secret two hour meeting with Putin in Helsinki… Ooops!
People who keep secrets may have a lot to hide.
Wanna bet your life?
26
Let’s forget about Trump for a minute, is it fair that China can do business in the US, while US companies cannot operate in China without having a Chinese partner and transferring the technology to China?
Loving the U.S should be more more important than disliking the president.
@N G Mimassi - while US companies cannot operate in China without having a Chinese partner
How, exactly, is that fixed by tariffs?
Its seems either doesn't know how or is too afraid to address the root problem and does only what a bully can do.
5
I believe in free trade without tariffs of any kind, with the possible exception of small, underdeveloped counties that need temporary protection to develop their own economies. However, as an example, when this conflict began, China was assessing a 25% tarrif on automobiles imported into China, while the US was assessing a tarfif of 2.5% on imported autos. It is my understanding China has now reduced its tariff to 15%. While this is progress of a sort, why should we tolerate this discriminatory tariff? Not to mention the ongoing theft of intellectual property from US companies. We don’t demand Chinese countries allow us access to their intellectual property if they wish to do business in the US.
I think this matter might be handled with more finesse, but on the whole I agree with Mr. Trump’s position because it might eventually lead to everyone capitulating to the idea of abolishing tarrifs in general. Otherwise, we are pretty much the piñata of the Chinese. Hope I didn’t engage in cultural appropriation just now!
2
And, exactly what type of economic downturn would we suffer if China decides owning 5% of our national debt (over $1,000,000,000,000) is no longer in their strategic interest?
8
@Rich M
Not likely, our treasury bound is still a safe investment with considerable return for big foreign investor like Chinese government. If they short their holding on our treasury bound, their trillion dollar asset will be literally 'homeless', when considered their volume and a tightening foreign investment criteria across the West. Also, money will flow out of China and their currency will fall from cliff: a good thing 20 years ago but not for now( see a recent FT article that talks about US-China cooperation on devaluing currency by other countries0
Trump, as we know so well, sees the world in simplistic "who's winning" terms. America must be "first." A ridiculous and pathetic "world view." Not to mention, but we must once again, that having a trade deficit with some other nation has nothing to do with "winning" or "losing." Trade accounts for well over 50% of global economic growth. But, oh no, I just used the word "global." You mean, we live in a multilateral world with 200 or so nations where global issues are as important as strictly national concerns? Trump will never get this notion through his thick skull.
9
Not even close to a Cold War. Basically A deal has already been reached and somehow before the Congresional elections it will be announced to sway the election. North Korea and this small misunderstanding over trade are tied together. China will lower their tax on imported goods, and the issue over copyrights will be put on back burner. Yawn.
1
Trump has a sterling record of bankruptcies with likely financial misdemeanors. When he predicts success, it is more likely that his simplistic tariff war will end up as a disaster and a catastrophe for the American economy and the average American. It is all inevitable, once this unqualified and unthoughtful extremist became President. How does he have the power to do this without Congressional hearings and reviews by trade experts? It seems to me to represent a nightmare and failure of our system of government! The voters must hold the Republican Party responsible for this calamity!
52
I am a Liberal and can't stand Trump. I fully support him on the China Trade War. China is our enemy, always has been and always will be. I was baffled for decades why America would openly and warmly embrace an enemy power and give them the economic largesse to become a super power. It is about time, bring on the Cold War, and the Chinese will learn just as the Soviets did -- America can outlast you.
3
@MoneyRules You should learn something about China's history. For 100 years, China was bullied, humiliated, invaded and fractured by Western imperial powers who forced it to accept drugs and give special trade concessions. This was the Century of Humiliation. Now, Trump is trying to humiliate China again. And you really think that you can "outlast" China? China is thousands of years old; the US is an infant by comparison. The American social and economic system is producing vast wealth for a few and poverty for many others. The idea that China is the "enemy" is profoundly aggressive and dangerous. The argument for engaging with China was always that by making it rich it would be committed to the system. This was always only partially true. What is happening now is that the fading power, the US, is trying to undermine the rising power while it can. I hope that it cannot; the US is far more dangerous to the world, as it has proven time and again, than China. But, by starting this Cold War, the US is setting in place relations that will shape the rest of the 21st century. Given how the US has behaved under Trump (and Bush before him) I am convinced that containing the US will be the major mission of the rest of the world for the foreseeable future.
4
How on earth does trump think he has the upper hand when we owe China a trillion dollars and Japan a trillion dollars? Prices at Walmart shout hit the fan before the midterm elections. Maybe that will convince trumps base to abandon the ship.
3
“If trade does not cross borders, armies will...”
Cant remember where I read this. Not surprised that apparently Trump has not.
14
Are we killing the patient to "cure" the infection? There is no doubt that China has engaged in unfair trade practices, ranging from patent infringements to forced partnerships and beyond. But the "cure" will come from a coordinated attempt by global partners to shut down these activities. We cannot accomplish this alone. Learn from Bush I; he assembled a large coalition of countries to fight the first Gulf War, which turned out not to be much of a war. It is worthwhile to study history.
5
@Tom
You are absolutely correct. Which is what the TPP was designed to do. And Trump pulled out, without knowing anything about the agreement or even caring to learn.
You can’t fix stupid.
2
Trump uses China as a foil. As you say, his feisty "trade approach" is popular with his base. They loved him when he jousted with Kim Jung Un--they think they are at a bloody football game cheering for our side. The economic consequences elude them.
Chinese industry has been very good to the 1%. They are the middlemen who sell us cheap goods at a profit. Apple, Walmart, and Amazon have risen on Chinese labor. But Chinese banks have risen too and are now able to finance Chinese companies--reminiscent of Japan in its heyday.
Trump may bluster until the midterm elections; but China will not back down because we need them perhaps even more than they need us.
6
@betty durso
when Japan's economy was on the rise. we, the US told the Japanese we saw that as a threat and asked them to commit economic suicide. they did.
the Japanese didn't stumble as our corporate media led you to believe.
we asked the Chinese to do the same. unlike Japan, China is a sovereign country, they refused. pivot to Asia, TPP, south china sea, fire and fury are simply our response.
China isn't rising. it is America declining and the elites don't have a clue how to respond.
2
Perhaps Mr. Trump should consider, perhaps for the first time, the repercussions of his actions. It wasn't on a whim that Xi recently ordered the Chinese military to participate jointly with the Russians in the largest war games theater since the end of the Cold War. I know this may come as a surprise to Trump but money truly isn't everything.
15
I am not surprised. Trump and the GOP are war mongers and will destroy us with the backing of the Catholics and evangelicals. Shameful . With the flooded wilderness now in the conservative south wait till those people see how they are treated by the GOP when they ask for assistance. We had 8 great years with President Obama and Hillary would not have led us down this path of destruction. Voters please remember this in November a vote for the GOP is a vote to end the world.
6
Did anyone think Trump knew what he was (is) doing. He blunders into and out of events and situations as his narcissistic needs dictate. Most Republicans are fanning the flames of a very long term fire. Think not about his crazy actions now but about the future of our children. This man/child is continuing to destroy the good in our country unchecked. All of this because of the greed and hunger for power of the Republicans currently in office. They feed this and we pay the price. McConnell and Ryan are the generators and promoters of Trump's wild behavior. We should not have put up with this for 6 months let alone almost 2 years.
8
China will simply stop buying US Treasury Notes, interest rates will go up, the enormous float of cash waiting to buy NY Stock Exchange companies will flow into debt offerings. Once interest rates are competitive with stock yields it will end the bull market. At that point the moneyed class in the USA that is tolerating Trump will turn on him and end his Presidency. So will end Mr. Donald Trump and his minions. Trump's demise is a function of his lack of thought. He is a blunt instrument that will bring his own demise, and a lot of loss of wealth in the US. Such is the path we selected when we elected him President. Next time voters should take more care in selecting a President.
54
Trump’s tariffs, coupled with environmental and labor rollbacks might have its intended effect. The US will destroy its environment in a mad scramble to extract natural resources , exploit low skilled, low wage, workers, and export shoddy goods to China. Meanwhile, China will invest in high-speed rail, solar, and education.
The nations’ roll in the world will flip.
5
I would not trust trump to drive my golf cart. The tit for tat exchange of tariffs I think was going to happen sooner or later. With or without trump. China talks the talk but barely crawls when it comes to a level playing field for business opportunities. They have made it clear in statements like one belt one road and China 2025 that they intend to be the the economic leader of the world. Period. They want to dominate every aspect of Asia. They have been stealing and pirating their way to that goal. More than likely this will trigger a downturn. Probably sometime next year. But China has also been taking part in war games with the Russians. China means business. Their business on their cheating terms. Trump will walk out the door declaring in the words of the most famous teenager to ever be president, we are winning! Boo hoo.
2
RE: "theft of intellectual property, forced transfer of technology from foreign companies, predatory joint venture agreements"
So rather than addressing the problem head-on and plugging the leak in the boat Trump figures to freeze the ocean to stop the leaking.
4
Obama put us in this position by allowing China to destroy our manufacturing, steal our technology and manipulate currency valuation. Obama did nothing but sell us down the river. Trump, thank goodness, is not putting up with China's actions and will get a fair trade deal restoring American manufacturing. Ask yourself this, when did everything for sale in Walmart become made in China?
5
I did ask myself the question in your final sentence. My answer? Long before Obama, sir.
4
@James Untrue. Obama had laid the groundwork for confronting China by creating the TPP plan for free trade all around the Pacific, excluding China. That agreement (along with the proposed TTIP with the EU) would have increased the U.S. export market so that the impact of a China trade war would be reduced. Instead, Trump has not opened a single new market to U.S. exporters to soften the impact, while other countries (including China - see the RCEP) are quickly creating new trade agreements excluding the U.S., like the CPTPP and the EU's new agreements with e.g. Canada, Mexico and Japan . Confronting China is not a bad thing, but doing it recklessly is. And Trump is doing it recklessly - like he does everything else, from the travel ban to incarcerating children.
17
Blaming it all on Obama is unfair. Globalists in both parties incorrectly believed that trade with China would be good in the long run, and China would democratize and liberalise their economy. Trump is finally taking action but in a unilateral brutish way. I'm dismayed at all the commentators who automatically oppose any position Trump has because it's Trump. Forcing China to play fair in international trade should be a bipartisan position.
1
China is hurting more than us. The tariffs will help force them to stop stealing our intellectual property and reduce tariffs on our exports to them. Then Trump will eliminate the tariffs in a new fair trade deal with them. Be patient and strong. This will help America in the end.
1
I have yet to see any issue that Trump was able to bring to a successful conclusion by using his vaunted "dealmaker" skills. He starts out with a serious face, then a smiling handshake while the cameras are rolling; then what? On to the next serious face while the last issue lies unresolved.
10
We have two men with very BIG egos engaged in a version of "cutting off your economic nose to save your political face." Meanwhile, millions of Americans and millions of Chinese are left paying the much higher price. It's clearly childish with two stubborn men putting themselves above their nation's economic well-being.
3
America has been taking $400 billion a year punishment from China for many years. The wealth has enabled China to behave as a complete thug towards its neighboring countries, and in its international activities, such as the recent incidents in Nauru and in Sweden. Support Trump to stop the wrong now.
1
@James Flynn I have not seen China invading countries in the Middle East and causing unnecessary wars. On the scale of thuggishness, the US is far worse than China. The fact that Americans somehow forget about their country's many interventions, interference, and bullying around the world while throwing stones at other states is absolutely incredible.
7
@James Flynn
are you aware we have boots on the ground in Myanmar? all simply because they refused to play ball with the US. the Rohingya issue is similar to the Syrian uprising, courtesy of our beloved spooks.
1
Wake up New York Times: the cold-trade-war has been going on for the last 18 years since China joined WTO and they are winning BIG. This is the Final Battle.
1
America will regain expertise in manufacturing. America will regain high-skill, high-paying jobs. America will cease to be just Walmart. America will not place its national security supply chain at risk to China. America will not transfer its intellectual property for nothing to China. America will reduce its trade deficit in value-added goods. America will be able to defend its allies.
There, solved your question for you about what America has to gain.
3
@Frank Allies? Who are they? Russia? Trump's burned every bridge the US has. BTW -- "America" doesn't own the intellectual property of individual businesses -- the business does. It's not for "America" to decide how or what an individual business does with its IP. And "America" lost high-skill, high-paying jobs because US businessmen decided they'd make more money by off-shoring their manufacturing base. And that national security supply chain? Almost ALL technology products are dependent on Chinese components, components that the US lacks the resources to manufacture. Intelligent, knowledgable people recognize that continuing to piss off the country that has the ability to put a strangle-hold on our entire tech industry by electing to completely cutting off supply is the height of foolishness. But keep drinking that Koolaid, oh wise one...
14
@Frank What allies? All the US has proven is that it is an international thug. The US has done far more damage to international law and order than China. The US is attacking the entire rules-based order, like the WTO, and is openly saying that it will only follow the rules that it wants to follow while imposing rules on others. None of this makes for good relations. The US will not regain high-skilled jobs; Americans will just pay a lot more for what they get and, given how poor Americans are, this will do nothing for social stability. As things stand, the US is a rogue state that is dangerous to the entire planet.
6
@Shaun Narine If you think Japan is not worried about a rogue China, which is already militarily threatening Taiwan and could easily threaten Japan next, you are sadly mistaken.
Clearly, Trump is trying to turn the US into an extension of himself. Trump's path to wealth has been based on lying, bullying, and tossing the chess board over whenever he was in fear of losing, 4 bankruptcies, and many, many stiffed and destroyed vendors and contractors along the way. If Trump succeeds in "bringing China to it's knees" how will this help the US. If Europe and the emerging world all hate us, who's going to buy our products and services. This is ALL heading to a bad place while Trump plays Harald Hill in the "Music Man" pretending "we've got problems in River City" that he himself is producing through his actions. Having traveled recently in Asia, there is an active turning away from an untrustworthy US to a more stable and humane China. Maybe untrue, but that's what they believe and Trump has caused these negative attitudes towards the US which will only get worse as his merry team of sycophants and self-obsessed morons move forward with Trump's blockheaded strategy.
84
When will the Republicans wake up and admit Trump is driving our country off a cliff? They are a pathetic group, supporting a con artist as their leader. We'll regret their complicity for many, many years!
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It took Bush-Cheney's Republican incompetence, greed and recklessness seven years to drive the American economy over a cliff.
I believe Trump-Pence's Republican incompetence, greed and cluelessness can accomplish the same feat in much less time.
The circumstances are different and tactics are different, of course, but the underlying lack of investment in the poor and the middle class complemented by the increased investment in the oligarchic class once again spell Grand Old Poison for America's economy.
Tariffs are simply hidden taxes paid by American consumers.
So while billionaires get bigger banana-split tax-cuts handed to them and America's healthcare, infrastructure, education and democracy are wholly abandoned, privatized and undermined by the right-wing donor class, Trump is delivering a tariff tax increase and an eventual economic downturn to 320 million Americans drowning in income inequality.
The imminent Trump Slump will not be a Chinese Hoax, Republistan; it will be real, it will be Republican and it will be born from Republican economic malpractice.
America's problem is not China or any other country.
It is Republistan, and its backward, inward culture of fear, loathing and white spite.
November 6 2018
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@Socrates
And yet people still vote Republican against their own interests- just look at SD.
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Tariffs not hidden tax. It's an obvious tax.
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Buried in the article is the solution to the problem. If the US wants to change Chinese trade practices, then the US needs allies to counter what China is doing. We need the EU. We need NAFTA. We the TPP.
What has Trump done? He has engaged in open economic battle with the EU. He killed the TPP right out of the starting gate. He wants to shut down NAFTA. He trashes our closest ally, Canada. He wants to wall off Mexico. Trump can go it alone.
Instead, Trump has initiated a brute force trade war that ultimately taxes all Americans. The consumer will pay for his war and gain nothing from it.
On this issue, the Wall Street banks and big money Republicans are correct. The free flow of money and investment across borders spurs economic development. It creates and opens markets. It grows economies. It pushes technology forward. It lowers prices for goods.
Economic isolation does the opposite. The world is constantly moving and changing. We have to keep up or we will get left behind. That's what has happened to Trump's base. They got left behind. Trade isolation will do that to our entire nation.
Yes China must change. But this isn't the way to do it. We will only end up hurting ourselves.
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@Bruce Rozenblit You summed up the issue very well. If I may add, the rest of the world is reacting by entering into trade agreements excluding the U.S. (CPTPP, RCEP, the various EU trade agreements with e.g. Japan, Mexico and Canada, and even proposals to join the different trading blocs, like the EU, Mercosur and CPTPP). Our exporters will be undercut in many markets while being excluded from China. This is like entering WWII by also declaring war on the USSR.
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Well, if Trump supporters at some point realize that tarrifs are taxes and that they are the one supporting really paying them, the game will change significantly.
When that happens I assume Trump will blame the policy on Mnuchin or someone.
However, creating a “ColdWar”, may be the point of this policy for both sides. It is far easier to blame problems on others than it isn’t to solve them.
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@Covert. The real tax increase is supporting all of those whose jobs were destroyed by allowing an absurd Chinese trade policy to exist. Obama was , without a doubt, the worst president in the history of the US because he never had a real job in his life and knew nothing but his radical left wing policies which destroyed manufacturing in the US and put so many out of work.
@Covert - the game will change significantly.
No. It won't. They will say they are happy to pay more. They've already said it. Trump at any cost.
@James - The real tax increase is the $4000 levied on me this here by the Republican theft of wealth from the middle class to the corporate and wealthy. And the millions and millions of others like me who will see their taxes increase dramatically this year to pay for Republican Wealthfare.
If being Senator or President isn't a real job than the same holds true for many that you support and admire James. Even the current President has never had a real job - having been gifted being "the boss".
Despite what Fox and Brietbart day it wasn't "radical left wing policies which destroyed manufacturing in the US" it was purest of Republican virtues: Greed. Profit. It was the owners, like Trump, who wanted more, to be richest, who moved factories overseas, or closed their factories and simply branded what they bought overseas with their label.
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