As Elkhart, Ind., Goes, So Goes the Nation, and Elkhart Is Nervous

Just a couple of comments from an RV owner. Check out the rv forums and you will find 15-20 complaints per day from owners frustrated by the cheap, tacky and poor construction of these $100 to 400, 000 unsafe vehicles. much of the problem, we are told, is the use of drugs by workers. It's amazing thay we put up with such a poor product. BTW, the dem is up by 6 points!!!!!!!

What about rising interest rates and stifled middle class income? Coupled with increased costs and fuel prices are the recipients of the tax cuts buying these contraptions?

If you want to see what sticker shock looks like, price one of those RVs. Who wants to buy one of those gas-hogging monstrosities at prices in the multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars?

Home of the RV Hall of Fame is now suffering under Trump … yet they voted overwhelmingly for Trump – and likely will continue to vote for him and his ilk. Went through there a few weeks ago and saw no one who looked like Barack Obama or any RVs being driven/occupied by African Americans. It’s a race thing pure and simple!

Politics aside, It's hard to feel sorry for a community that overwhelmingly supports Trump. Even Fox News watchers should be able to see clearly that Trump is a vile, cruel man. he shouldn't be welcomed at anybody's table let alone looked up to as your political leader. If they had any morals they'd all be pitching for his impeachment and installing their former Governor in the Oval Office.

Poor Mr. Holtz... silly boy grasping at straws. Zero insight and a very poor judge of character. Republicans DO NOT have America's back... OUR backs! Get rid of them in November.

As a Canadian, most of our new RV's come from this American state as well. But we aren't buying, just like most Canadians are not buying anything American at all. No apples from Washington. No oranges from California. Nothing American. If I worked in this industry, I would be worried as well.

Well, cheer up. It looks as if we will need temporary post storm housing, year after year, as we manage the recovery from really large storms. There is a market there - talk to FEMA.

I am pretty tired of these communities who are “worried”. Really, they cheered and voted for a “so called great business man”. Basically most of us know Trump is a dud. Too bad they believed his hype.

Sorry to say but people were warned about the liar in the White House. Indiana voted for him. Maybe they will now get off of their butts and back those who support the workers of America. A hint, its not the GOP. I am voting only for Democrats.

R.V.'s are Time Shares on wheels. They look great on the showroom floor, but once you buy one and drive it on one or two trips, you start thinking about selling it. Then you have lost 50% of it's value as soon as you drive it off the lot. At least a Time Share doesn't take up space in your driveway. Never buy a new R.V.. There are plenty of mint condition used R.V.'s just about everywhere.

The steel tariffs are not the problem for RV sales. No, RV sales are most impacted by the price of gasoline, which is way up over last year. Oil is currently hovering near $80 a barrel as Trump’s sanctions on Iranian oil are now taking millions of barrels off the world market. Many oil analysts expect oil to hit over $100 per barrel in 2019. Sounds like RV sales could really slump in 2019, which will make people like Mr. Holtz and his fellow Northern Indiana Trumpers really happy with all their free time not making RVs. I wonder how many Elkhart Indiana Trump voters realized that Trump was going to dramatically increase gas prices with his foreign policy and thereby destroy the RV market?

Obama saved their economy yet they voted for trump by 30%? They deserve whatever they get from trump’s disaster of a presidency.

The RV industry has been boom and bust for decades, going back to the 1970 gas lines. Every time it goes bust, the area vows to diversify the economy. Never happens. Once again, the mostly non union workforce will eventually pay the price, as these foolish tariffs will make many people think twice before investing in an already expensive product. It’s very interesting that President Obama got no credit for the recovery in these parts, and Trump gets no blame for the slowdown. Makes me think that something besides economics is involved. Logic is certainly not playing a role.

“Indeed, companies like his have had to raise pay and increase benefits to attract and retain workers.” Oh no, not that! Sounds like he’d better move production overseas and get rid of all those ungrateful American workers. I thought that Republicans want the Market to drive wages and prices. It’s the capitalist way. Hurray for Trumpy’s Tariffs giving those Chinese what for! Maybe it’s time for those “Independent” voters who thought Trump was a good idea to tumble to what we New Yorkers have known all along. There’s a scam around every corner in Trumpland and the Republicans only care about their oligarch masters.

Perhaps like soy bean farmers, Trump will throw money at this industry as well. After all, it’s only (the taxpayer’s borrowed) money.

I grew in northern Indiana until I was 22. Two reasons I decided to leave was because the winters were long and brutal and I didn’t want to work in manufacturing. I knew if I stayed that’s what I would do. Elkhart county needs to invest in and try and get other industries to come to the county and not just rely solely on RV manufacturing. We see what can happen when it does. RVs are like a boat, expensive and not something most middle class Americans can afford anymore, let’s be honest the middle class is closer to the lower class than ever before. The workers of northern Indiana are great, hard working and skilled people but they deserve something that isn’t so reliant on someone’s having extra money to burn. Maybe the county should look into attracting industries such has healthcare, technology or other manufacturing, not RV.

Not just RVs are made in Northern Indians, but school buses, mobile homes, fire trucks, etc. it is a huge fabricating area. I used to travel this area in the mid 1990s as part of my marketing territory. I know of no other place that is more industrial manufacturing boom and bust than Northern Indiana. Seriously, about once a decade the unemployment rate there will skyrocket to near 20%, and the national media will be out in full force covering the horror of everyday people who have lost their jobs, cannot make their mortgage payments, and never thought they would need to rely on a food bank. The country has recessions, but Northern Indiana has depressions.

From the piece: " He is also the county Republican chairman and was onstage with Mr. Trump when the president spoke here to an enthusiastic crowd of more than 6,000 people in May. “It was hard for him to not get a warm welcome here,” Mr. Holtz said. “It’s just the zeitgeist of the community.” " As a long-time resident of the Hoosier state, I'm ashamed to admit that the word 'racism' may be substituted for the word 'zeitgeist' for additional insight into the Elkhart area.

Rv's are the new starter home. They are emergency shelters for the climate disasters that are occurring. The are the full-time home for those whose careers force them to be migratory. No, not agricultural workers, but welders, refinery workers, construction workers, health care professionals. Elkhart made a big mistake. Let us hope that its demise doesn't add to our already serious lack of housing.

If Elkhart is the canary in the coalmine, it's had more lives than a cat. I've read its obituary at least twice a decade since the '80s.

There will be an adjustment in the economy as the numbers don't lie, nor do loaded RV consignment lots: " . . . motor homes were down 18.7 percent in June compared with a year ago." Consumer blindness and suckerdom will continue until Recession 2.0 or is it three? Whatever you call it, there will be a "correction" - love that euphemism for our pain!

Diplomacy and a basic understanding of macroeconomics really are more important skills than bombastic fear-mongering in a president. Anything else I have to say would be some version of "I told you so."

No, no, no; this can't be right. Fake news, dude, MSM. Just a few months ago I read, in no less an authority than The New York Times, about how Elkhart was booming (pardon he term) again, with jobs going begging and pay increasing, but the sage burghers of the town were firmly committed to Trump because they couldn't trust that Muslin in the White House, and they knew the jobs weren't really, really, real because Democrats. If ever there was a blue collar town that should be Party Central, Elkhart is it. They got their jobs, they got their cash, and they got their longed-for President. What do these guys want, for Pete's sake!?!

May I recommend Bob Woodward's book Fear. There is no plan in the White House and besides, Trump felt obligated to his base to impose these tariffs. Everyone who voted for him, therefore,should be very, very happy! No?

"I almost welcome a slowdown." Because if things keep booming I'll have to pay my workers more. And paying decent wages with some basic benefits really eats into the profits that land in my pocket. I'd rather take a little bit of a hit myself than allow my workers to have even a moderate level of financial well-being. What a guy that Dan Holtz.

I grew up in Indiana before coming to NYC in the 80’s - I was shocked at how many people in the Midwest got sucked in my this NY conman, Trump. Hopefully they will wake up soon ... because - “the bird is coming back to the nest” as we farm boys like to say.

Sorry Trump crowd, you need a taste of what you wished for. Maybe you will wake up to the disaster that is Trump. Nothing else has worked, so sorry about your shrinking wallet. And you actually think he cares about you? What about the better, cheaper, health care he promised? His only program is called "Hurry Up and Die!". Wake up!

At some point, many younger people may decide that the "sharing economy" has become the "oversharing economy" and want to own the location where they sleep and prepare food rather than depend on the mercy of strangers to care for their well-being. Those who like the idea of working at a company that caters lunch so they do not have to roll the dice at a restaurant might also enjoy travelling with their own hotel room and kitchen. Countering this possibility are a general disinterest in driving, a greater urbanization and concentration of wealth (no one needs more than one of these things, and a smaller percentage of the populous may be able to afford one), and a likely increasingly robust used vehicle market. The highest-end cargo van-sized models, equipped with high-tech features such as solar panels, may have increasing appeal. In my amateur opinion, the long-term demand could go either way, but the effects of metal prices on manufactured goods that use far more metal than any car or SUV is unambiguously large and negative. A manufacturer would likely be especially wary of erring on the side of over-producing with high metal prices when there is reason to hope that the increased tariffs will go away fairly soon. This is especially true if there is also reason to believe there may be a short-term weakening of demand - including the effect of potential buyers who are thinking similarly. Few people *have* to have an RV, and even fewer cannot delay their purchase.

The article failed to give the price ranges of the most common RVs. Also, with the small house movement gaining popularity, are these feasible homes for a couple years for young people, or for seniors who would like to be able to relocate every few months for first years of retirement?

I'm on temporary assignment in central Michigan. This is a place packed with RV's, and I don't mean on the roads. As you drive along the highways, there are literally thousands of RV's in parking lots that no-one is buying. I have a sense that there has been an overproduction of these monster vehicles and owing them is, for lack of a better way of putting it, bizarre. There's something not-quite-right about the economics of owning, operating, fueling, maintaining, insuring and storing them. They are enormous consumers of energy and space and they are noisy road hogs. They are just another example of the American "overcompensation" habit.

I would like to sympathize with the people of Elkhart, but it's really hard to do so. The political history of this place is that these people enthusiastically supported Trump and just as enthusiastically vilified President Obama. President Obama's policies rescued these people from economic catastrophe and Trump's con job put them back into the threat of economic catastrophe. The simple reality is that if Trump's tariffs hadn't jeopardized their local industries but instead threatened say, Silicon Valley's economy, the good people of Elkhart wouldn't have cared less. Harsh words, but deserved.

This is what you get from letting "Trump be Trump". We gave power to destroy our economy to the class idiot. The Wharton School needs to do damage control to its reputation since Trump was elected. How could he have learned so little and still gotten a degree from that formerly esteemed school?

Elkhart County, Indiana November 8 2018 vote count Donald Trump, 64%, 41,810 votes Hillary Clinton, 32%, 20,667 votes Cheer up, Elkhart..... the worst is yet to come !

Maybe everyone who wants a RV has one? I can't imagine wanting to own such a thing or a motorcycle for that matter. Perhaps they should have thought of diversifying more and building things people really need not a luxury boat of the highways. There's also an article today about motorcycle sales that makes for similar reading but not all manufacturing is located in one city. It would be interesting to read an article about motor boat sales too; in my area, people were giving those away in 2008. Not paying storage and dock fees, etc. They are very large, luxury items, these "toys".

Owning a big RV made in Elkhart in which we travel 6 months each year, we'd like to share some thoughts. 1. Mr Trump's policies didn't make RV's the latest "big boy toy". 2. The impact of tariffs has yet to be felt in its entirety - once the stock of raw materials is exhausted, price pressure will cause costs to go up. 3. The excess inventory is at least partly due to increased prices for products that display no real innovation or improvement in quality or construction. It's hard to believe that our coach ($371K in 2014) now prices out at more than $450K - for the same product. Gee - I wonder is the blush is coming off the rose...

Owning a big RV made in Elkhart, we'd like to share some thoughts. 1. Mr Trump's policies didn't make RV's the latest "big boy toy". 2. The impact of tariffs has yet to be felt in its entirety - once the stock of raw materials is exhausted, price pressure will cause costs to go up. 3. The excess inventory is at least partly due to increased prices for products that display no real innovation or improvement in quality or construction. It's hard to believe that our coach ($371K in 2014) now prices out at more than $450K - for the same product. Gee - I wonder is the blush is coming off the rose...

One factor not mentioned is how the RV market has changed into a type of "AirB&B" model. Now instead of buying a new RV, you simply rent it from someone locally who isn't using it. Or from one of the rental companies. RVs are a fantastically bad investment. Like a plane, they have a large up-front cost, and for most of the year they sit somewhere rotting. RV's also have the reputation of needing things constantly fixed. And they suck down gas to beat the band. For a couple of weeks a year, leasing is a much better option. Perhaps the makers need to be more involved in that market.

Making America Great “Again”, one state at a time

They voted for DJT.

500,000 RVs sold? Per year? For years now? There are only so many rich people who can think of such a luxury item, much less the fuel and upkeep and storage and time away from work. I can't imagine any family has 2 RVs like they have 2 homes or they trade in their old one for a new one just because they can afford it. Of course there's a downturn from that sales rate. There is no middle class left to buy such dinosaurs. I'd like to know how many of the workers in the RV field can afford a new RV that rolls off their assembly line. Though DRAB, at least the model T Ford was built with the goal of being affordable to the workers who built them.

Instead of this completely wasteful tax cut, had we passed a robust infrastructure bill, we would have much more sustained growth without huge budget deficits. Going for 4-5% growth at the end of economic cycle is madness that is only ensuring overheated economy and early and deeper crisis. I would rather have a steady 2-2.5% over longer period of time.

There is no plan. So true, Mr. Yoder.

I am puzzled by memories and math ability. If there has been a 10 year expansion, that means that eight of the years were under President Obama and after only two years of their Great Leader, it is slowing.

Wow—no comments? I guess not “so goes the nation” in interest anyway. Did the tariffs already affect the price of RV’s enough to be reflected in lower sales? Well, I wonder about that, but I am trying really hard to resist the temptation to say “serves you right” to the voters of Elkhart!

“I almost welcome a slowdown,” Mr. Holtz said in a small conference room at his company. “I can’t find enough workers.” Please. If that's not whistling in the dark, I don't know what is. No business owner who's being honest will "welcome a slowdown" under any circumstances. Just goes to show that the emperor will never be naked for a certain percentage of Trump Republicans.

The photo of the family, the RV, and the dog is a great photo. It looks like a work of art.

Too bad that places like Elkhart and Indiana set the tone for so much of the country. From 1990 to 2016 Indiana fell from 27th to 42nd in rankings of US states by life expectancy. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/state-of-the-union-for-life-e... It doesn't get more basic than that. You live in a regressive Republican state, you die sooner than New Yorkers and Californians. The people of Elkhart need to know that.

A little hyperbolic i would say. The next generations will not be buying RVs like the current so will this association between the entire economy and RVs be declared false?

It's good that his supporters are happy during the good times. Let's see how they feel when he hits his first crisis.

Places like Elkhart that are dependent on a single cyclical manufacturing industry or commodity agriculture are more exposed to damaging tariffs than larger metros. That's why a diverse group of manufacturing and agriculture associations promoting free trade have a plan to hit town hall meetings in key districts during the midterm election season to pressure candidates. The damage is yet to be measured as the initial effects are to actually increase trade and sales to beat the tariffs, which is why trade deficits spiked recently and added to 2nd quarter GDP. Even if Trump comes up with his typical "window dressing" trade negotiation as with Mexico, or the "rescue" of the Carrier plant, (now experiencing layoffs and low worker morale), the effects of current tariffs will ripple into 4th and 1st quarters, with shrinking order backlogs and higher consumer prices. The Chinese will not be giving into US pressure to rein in their state sponsored high technology "2025 Made In China" program. A more intelligent US approach would be to promote advanced manufacturing industries rather than try to save dying coal mining and obsolete steel plants.

I do not see many Gen Xers or Millennials tooling around America in RVs and doubt that will be a thing in the future. It would be interesting to see the stats. We already know Motorcycles are not selling to people under about 45 years old and I would guess that RVs will be disrupted by the generations coming to dominance sooner rather than later. There was a time when Elkhart was known for musical instruments. According to NPR, there were once more than 60 different companies. If you played in the Band growing up your horn, clarinet or drum probably came from Elkhart. https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=124583703 I figure the same may well happen to RVs, Trump or not.

"The tariffs are adding as much as 50% to the cost of some materials..." The steel tariff is 25%, so it appears that some suppliers are using that as an opportunity to boost their profit margins by adding on another 25%. Canada is a significant export market for RV's. Trump's bombastic approach to cower Canada into submission has not helped American RV sales in Canada, just like it has hurt Harley-Davidson.

Because voters in the Northeast states didn't support Trump, we are being hammered by his vindictive tax overhaul. Because Elkhart supported Trump, now its their turn to feel the economic pain of his capricious trade policies. Those of us in New York have witnessed for 30+ years that with Trump there are no winners. The sooner Trump's voters learn this lesson, the better off this great country will be.