"is unsustainable in the long term"
Pure jealousy ..... eliminating the millions of regulations has enabled the economy to ROAR.... to bad Democrats.....
2
Not to worry. When it fluctuates back down, it will be fake news, a witch hunt, or Obama's fault.
2
"once again we are the economic envy of the entire world"... Yeah, let me just pop up a quick link here for you, Donald:
http://www.usdebtclock.org/.
Oh, and per capita you are more like somewhere between the 10th and 15th country in the world when it comes to wealth, so...
Trump pushed through a tax bill that gave tax relief to millions of working people. Trump loosened or demolished stupid and redundant regulations, including the disastrous ObamaCare, thus restoring confidence in the business community to do what they do best...spend their money and create jobs. Trump ended foolish trade deals the had held the economy down for decades and which eliminated the uncertainty in commerce not only in the US but worldwide. Trump threatened and implemented tariffs on friend and foe alike that have trading partners lining up to make deals with America. Trump told the NATO countries to pay up or shut up...and they're paying up. Trump plugged up the leaking southern boarder and is now mopping up illegals throughout the country. Trump stood up to tinpot dictators around the world and has them either cooperating or on the run. Trump put America and the American people on the top of his list of priorities and as a result America is in a resurgence economically, politically and culturally. Trump has done in a year and a half what Clinton, Bush II and Obama combined couldn't do in 25 years. Yes, trump did it, he should say he did it and he deserves credit for doing it. I know you, the NYT and the people on these pages don't like hearing that because it exposes the foolish and failed agenda that you have adhered to for so many years and makes you angry, but it true, you know it's true and I and the rest of America know you know it's true.
1
Good numbers. I hope they continue.
Let’s face it, the President is a liar and a thief but the USA is strong. And while he makes big blustery commandments (often dangerous); he backs down - the Europeans know it, N Korea knows it, Iran probably knows it as well. The deficit will hurt us, I expect Republicans will care about the deficit when Democrats take over. The judges they are appointing will be a big problem- but elections have consequences and it’s a good lesson for those who didn’t bother to vote.
My hope is in Congress to keep him in check and the American people to wake up and vote.
2
wait until the $8 trillion he removed from the Treasury to splatter around mostly his pals and himself, hits home. Suggest all commoners pay off their debts quick.
3
Hang on, is this the same United States that only a few weeks ago was being used as the world’s “piggy bank”? The same nation that was being taken advantage of by nefarious nations who had “huge trade surpluses” and were “national security threats”? Just checking...
2
Wow-wee-woo-woo! Look, some Republican constituents with money to invest! If Trump takes money out of the health care industry and puts towards making up for the largest of corporation’s new tax-breaks, only you people with more money who can afford to invest will have more money in dividends! Wow! The Trump-brains of it all! Maybe you Republican constituents could talk your leaders into going along with your paying less Sales Tax since you spend more at the retailers; where you could expect people in line behind you not to kick you from behind! Are some of you ‘playing’ Trump-stupid?
Who loves GOP corporate-capitalism not regulated with any conscience? We know who.
3
How do you say: C-O-L-L-U-S-I-O-N
It looks like all the paranonia of acusations of collusion by DonaldTrump was well placed, the Fat Lady is getting ready to sing about the Fat Sloppy Man.
3
Ha ha ha and I bet he claims like JohnLennon that he is more important than God.
2
Is Cardinal McCarrick joining the Trump administration?
Seems to this reader that the most remarkable part of the story is that the NY Times has featured good economic news (on page 1!) during the Trump Administration. And with only minor sniping.
1
I see (fact check) is now the new (sic). How annoying. Like spinning spin.
Trump claims?.... LoL... Americans elected a dictator..good luck
3
many (...Democrat Part operatives...) expect a slow down later this year."
Wow. There is an increasing note of desperation in your reporting. Two years of constant attacks on Trump only to discover, in the immortal words of Bill Clinton, "its the economy stupid."
1
he should claim credit for the 20% decline in facebook and twitter, which was driven by the activity his Russian bot friends on his behalf.
3
Hilarious watching the NYT spin good news about the economy into Trump gloom.
Foolish to take a bow for skewing numbers. Take another swig off your diet coke.
1
I am glad to see that the NYTimes has begun to fact check....
Trump....and so from now on I would like every single statement
which Trump makes....and which the NYTimes reports...fact
checked.
Trump LIES....cannot be printed as truth ANYMORE !!!!
4
The exposure of Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama has just begun. Globalism is poison to our workers and their families, but it gave unprepared presidents the chance to pose for pretty pictures and be admired, which always rates higher with Dem leaders than worlers' making more money.
Leadership actually MEANS something to America, and Trump is teaching lessons to users and fakers.
The great Narcissist Trump, ignores the achievements of our previous administration (Obama), who initiated todays economic growth and takes credit of EVERYTHING this country has achieved by his unique acumen.
Anything bad or questionable, was the fault of all previous presidents. Anything good that is happening to this country is his UNIQUE achievement...a 7th grade mentality.
2
Trump can claim anything he likes and this mob of ignorant followers will believe him. The average Trumpist knows as much about Economics as he does about Astronomy. Per Pew Research, about one in three Americans believe the Sun revolves around the Earth (it is the other way around). It stands to reason that those good folks are more highly concentrated among Trumpists. Trump has his job cut out for himself.
3
Of course he claims credit. Wonder who he will blame when it hits the wall?
1
Future generations are to be plowed down by the trillions of debt left for them with this generous gift to the corporate world, and the upper crust baby boomers who are loving the upticks of the stock market right into retirement.
The problems are still staring us in the face: low wages across the industries, a non existing middle class, pathetic numbers for education via the shunning of technical schools, health care costs that bankrupt families and a ballooning credit card debt (the #s for that have been on the biggest upswing since 2008). Yea, we are all "living large", as our #45 wants us to believe, but this is not a reality show that we can toss the footage for editing down when the end of his term comes, these actions are going to plummet generations that are meant to ride the wave that the boomers should have been passing onto them... Spending $ is easy, yeay for the great GDP, but when you as a country cannot provide for basic living expenses via wages that are in line with inflation, all will come crashing down. RIP balanced budgets, those days are going to be hard to come back to.
4
Just one burp in the stock market--like this week's "decision" to punish Facebook by cutting nearly 20% of its price over a single "failure to meet analysts' expectations"--and the whole mirage falls apart. This and a collapse in real estate is what ultimately happened in 2008, and it was people with real wealth and investments who got whacked. As soon as consumer demand cools, the layoffs and cutbacks will quickly follow. Hollow threats from the emperor will be just that (though the base will continue to believe whatever they're told). Conditions are headed exactly in that direction now, and it's only a matter of when, not if. Count on Goldman Sachs hedging another failure--they were the big winners in 2008. Which of the many daily stupid, arrogant, misguided, belief-based "tweets," actions or inactions will be the straw is the only part that's uncertain.
3
the economy is the only thing holding trump up. no wonder he's full of its praises.
Trump and his administration only take credit for what they perceive will be good for their base and keeping them voting Republican. Notice they're not taking credit for kidnapping children and being so cruel and incompetent that they are unable to reunite them. They are not taking credit for ignoring court orders and deadlines. And they're not taking credit for Russia interfering in our elections. What a joke and a tragedy.
2
Trump - a psychopathic liar who delights in gaslighting is joined by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who has, among his other dubious credentials sat on the board of the Bank of Cyprus, one of the great laundromats and funny money clearing houses for Russia and other kleptocratic regimes. It is Ross who is now overseeing the manufacture of our economic indicators, or more accurately, their invention and release. That plus the front end loading effect of a trillion dollar tax cut, stock buy backs that subsidize preferred share trade outs, and tariff driven inventory expansion as a defensive maneuver by businesses is what's behind this 'great success.'
As God said to the Mayfly: "Have a Nice Day."
This confluence will wear off like a coat of new paint on a used car with a turned back odometer. Just in time for impeachment hearings. Trump will blame the crash on the 'plot to impeach him' by "the witch hunt." Let us hope the public finds some solace in clawing back all the assets he and his family, Ross, and the rest of his band of felons have absconded with by then.
2
Let us face it. The New York Times will try very very hard to deny him that credit.
Note that five years of growth below 1% and one more year of negative growth all took place under Obama.
If we want to remain "one country" then we need to learn the art of giving credit to the other side.
Give FULL credit to Trump!
1
Quicker than speedy gonzales when it comes to taking credit but is the invisible man when it comes to taking responsibility. Our president is a joke.
2
Your bias is showing, Times, with the headlines. Of course Trump takes credit - just like every president before him takes credit - and the blame - for everything that happens on their watch.
1
When the economy tanks, and it will like it always does when the Republicans run things, he will then blame someone else. I will NEVER VOTE for this clown nor will I vote for anyone in the GOP this November.
4
Pride cometh before a fall.
3
Do you know anyone who got a raise? Do you know anyone who has saved lots of extra money? This economy is a lie as are all trump claims. Hide your money somewhere that it won't be lost when things go down. This is a false economy as was Reagen's and Bush's. The debt will soon be crippling. People use their credit cards like they are free cash. I will put it simply: the public is aplauding an economy being credited to a man who has bankrupted six businesses and pays cash to mistresses. Get real and get ready.
3
Trump takes credit for the sun coming up in the morning.
2
It's amazing what you can do with someone elses credit card.
Trump has been doing it his entire professional career.
3
Everyone knows that the stock market only goes up, right? When the next bad news comes, what will he say? Oh yes -- it will somehow be Hillary's fault.
22
Hi note! I can't put away not $5 a month. When do I get a livable wage so I can pay off my debts! Living backwards is not a high note. Clearly everybody is not captured in the title of this article!
19
Trump will claim credit for anything with a favorable outcome and will blame the Democrats for anything with a negative outcome, whether true or not. He is, after all, our Liar-In-Chief.
43
More winning! This guy is unstoppable, I can’t imagine how bad things would be right now under a Clinton 2.0 presidency. Keep it up Mr. President, we’ve got you back.
8
Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.0 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2014—the strongest single quarter over the previous 11 years, and after president Obama had been in office long enough to actually be credited with a measure of the growth, especially after pulling the nation out of the Bush near depression. Can't say the same for the egotistical buffoon, Trump.
30
Trillions in new debt to the Chinese - the con continues.
22
the best description of the economy is a tanker making a turn in the water. it's not quick. Obama spent 8 years pulling us out of the bush mess. This is not news to anyone with a functioning brain. Unfortunately half of America............Let's work on getting them a functioning brain.
36
Did Trump take credit for the sun coming up this morning. He's leading a charmed life on the economy. He inherited a rising economy and it has continued to rise. No surprise there. Outside of the tax cut, they haven't done anything to the economy.
His trade war will do something. His instincts will destroy the economy. It just takes some time.
35
Mr. Casselman, thank you for an excellent overview of our current economic status. It is impressive and Trump does deserve some well earned credit. But what concerns me the most is not our economic issues but, more to the point, the political side of the Trump equation.
He is a self-professed "wannabe dictator". He lavishes praise all too frequently on people like Putin and other dictators around the world. This is troublesome to say the least.
As farfetched as it may seem, I believe Trump would love nothing more than for the United States to move away from an open democracy towards a type of government that parallels Russia and other dictatorships.
In a final analysis, it seems clear to me that he doesn't seem to favor our open style of democracy where every person has a vote of equal measure in determining our future course...Trump, in his heart of hearts, I believe, would like to be in total control of it.
So, I don't trust Trump. He's a mean-spirited, insecure wannabe dictator who conspicuously lacks a certain sensitivity to others thoughts and feelings. Personally, what he did at the U.S. Mexican border was atrocious -- separating those children, and babies, from their loving parents. That alone says a lot about the man who occupies the people's White House.
Trump simply can't be trusted in those areas of concern that form the basis of who we are as a people and a country. He doesn't read and therefore lacks a certain appreciation for what came before.
22
From my simplified point of view, the economy was teetering when we went from Bush 1 to Clinton, fine in the hand off from Clinton to GW Bush, awful in the transition from GW to Obama, recovering from Obama to Trump.
It's only anecdotal, but I will opt to wait and see what the long-term outcome of this "high note" will be.
It's a note, not the entire concerto.
24
Trump inherited a strong economy. An economy that had finally recovered from an unparalleled decade long economic catastrophe under eight years of republican leadership. It recovered under the leadership of a democrat president. It is good that Trump hasn't destroyed it yet. Sooner or later his foolish global actions will indeed have a negative effect. Of course we all now that any negative results will of course be the fault of anyone but him. Enjoy it while you can, the next recession is always just around the corner. Will it be of Trumpian proportion or just a blip?
14
"There are lies, damnable lies and statistics." That is why Trump likes the uneducated.
24
I’m waiting to hear Trump call “FAKE NEWS” on the Times for this article. After all, you’re just a bunch of liberal snowflakes. How could this article, among all the others, have any validity. What’s that you say? Don’t hold my breath? I thought so.
6
How wonderful! Wouldn't NOW be a good time to address the 1 in 6 people who go hungry everyday in America? So much largesse, surely we could now focus on food insecurity and lifting the approximately 46 million of us who live in poverty?
I don't see that "trending". The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer and that's what it is all about. Wages, living wages, are not mentioned in this rosy future.
America, the economic envy of the world, the richest nation can not turn it's focus to helping the hungry and the poor. Why?
Because for Trump and his ilk it is all about money and profit. The Koch Brothers are happy and it's THEIR fault they are poor or can not afford food.
We should be asking at what cost all this economic high. In a year or two, when your drinking water turns blue because companies opened their backdoor and let the pollutants out, what will the real cost become? The Trump administration does not care. That is what Scott Pruitt was there for at the EPA. Pollute for profit.
So let's all enjoy it while we can. The GOP wants your vote and you will give it because you enjoyed dinners out.
Fiscal Responsibility is for suckers.
17
This is in irresponsible headline since the economy has not hit a "high" note. Yes, this growth rate is large, but it is not a record high and we saw growth higher than this 5 times under President Obama. Please amend the headline so as not to create the false impression that we're reaching new heights.
16
Never responsible for the bad things, someone else always is. Only responsible for the good things.
17
We all know that that this figure was exceeded twice in 2014 under President Obama. Trump has a long way to go to beat Obama.
26
The proverbial rooster, assuring himself that his loud crowing is solely responsible for the morning sunrise.
24
TRUMP Has a very unusual way of processing information, since he takes credit for positive events for which he has directly contributed nothing, and deflects the most horrible things he's done by blaming others. I think he's got it precisely backward. But that's just Trump being Trumpzilla.
13
Ah, the NYT's is doing cartwheels to stop giving Trump any credit for this economy. Fact is that our economy is booming and credit belongs to cutting out the numerous regulations put on on economy by President Obama who guessed wrong on how to grow this Country. Credit is due to Trump cutting corporate tax rates that has encouraged corporations to spend on manufacturing improvements. The day following the elections of November 2016, companies began a massive infusion of money into their companies future. I get a kick out of the NYT's "fact check", something they never did during the Obama years. Get over it NYT's readers, like it or not Trump has done well for this economy. You and I might not like the way his message is said, but I love that he is the first President in my 75 year memory that has fulfilled his campaign promises!
7
@BobsOpinion
Not quite. The fact is this boom is the result of the policies of the last 9 years and the recession that will hit us by the end of the year the result of last year's policy. Takes a while for good things to happen but only a short while for it to all go down the drain due to incompetence. Enjoy the ride.
26
Get ready, when the economy succumbs to the natural gravity of economic up and downs---aggravated by Trump's economic ignorance--somehow Obama will be blamed.
29
Kudos POTUS. Look for red wave in November. Despite Mueller witch hunt POTUS continues to thrive. He has undone Obama's socialist regime. Regulations rolled back. Naked unbridled capitalism reigns. Blacks working at highest rate in history. Illegals being deported at record rates. Clean coal is back. Drill baby drill. (My apologies to the spotted owl) Big Beautiful Wall being constructed. The Supreme Court should be re-named Trump's Court. Roe is dead. All this winning is making me tired. Stay tuned.
8
Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.0 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2014—the strongest single quarter over the previous 11 years, and after president Obama had been in office long enough to actually be credited with a measure of the growth, especially after pulling the nation out of the Bush near depression. Can't say the same for the egotist, Trump.
22
“Once again, we are the economic envy of the entire world,” Mr. Trump declared
don trump never has to take a subway in NY or SF. Never walks the streets of any city in our country where there is an increasing amount of homelessness and mental illness. Or perhaps he should visit places like South Central LA and parts of Oakland and Richmond Ca where danger and food deserts are common. maybe he should walk the streets of Berlin and never see a homeless person or take mass transit there where you never have to wait more than 4 minutes for your fast reliable, updated train. Nor does don trump ever have to commute to work in a car in any major city in this country where traffic becomes increasingly and frustratingly choked. nor does the don ever have to work 3 jobs in order to get by or worry about paying for dental care or health care which has been rising dramatically in the USA. As for the economic envy don proclaims, he should travel every once in a while where real people live.
21
We don't even have or keep data on much of what matters now in economics.
Our workers compete in a far larger labor pool, and we don't keep data on all of it, nor study it. We'd have to know more than unemployment and wages. We'd need to know costs, of wages, of labor saving devices to make labor more efficient, of productivity, of regulations as both benefit (such as transport, legal reliability, police & security, health & education of labor force), and burden of paying for it and protecting it.
It is complicated, and we don't really study it as a unified topic.
The just-in-time method was developed to reduce inventory costs, but it was developed in Japan for cross town or cross island transport among people who knew each other. It is now used for global transport. The cost and delay of trucking a couple of miles are quite unlike shipping back and forth across to and from the other side of the globe, to and from people who mostly have never even met each other and can't speak a common language.
We go up and down in this unknown mess, and claim credit or assign blame as if we knew what was going on.
4
And I'll take credit for the full moon last night. Wasn't it a beauty? Aren't I wonderful? Love me, love me, please.
18
Folks, the US isn't even on the same measurement system as the rest of the world. Tinkering with financial gimmicks is just denial of the fundamentals that have driven business out of the US.
8
To those who benefit the most, Trump is the knight in shining armor. For those whose wages remain stagnated, not so much.
8
Who was first? Was it that Republican ‘leadership’ offered the largest of corporations more of an exchange at the GOP’s tax-changers-table, or was it first, ‘corporations lobbyists’ who offered GOP leadership more in contribution-exchanges if the government went along with cheating the rest of us out of the same equal exchange?
Most people know the Obama Administration got the economy moving again.
I mean, Wall Street could invest all the money of hit-men and the GOP would call it a financial-killing no matter how it is at anybody else’s or any other business size’s expense.
4
Thank you Mr. President. Thank you for Making America Strong Again.
1
@Brewster Millions
You don't have a PhD in Economics, I dare to say.
1
Many comments ask, “how am I benefiting from this growth?” The answer: record employment, job security, rising stock prices, pension growth, and potential for more if Trump’s efforts to reduce tariff protections are successful with the EU and China. Here’s a telling chart that shows the EU, China and US tariff level by key industry: http://www.scdigest.com/ontarget/27-08-02-1.php?cid=12808. Bottom line: the US has been getting the short end of the stick for decades, especially from China.
4
Trump will not work with accountants who would tell him that we are borrowing the money he calls tax cuts, when they should be called deferments, and that if proper reporting by the economists was required they most likely would also state that an increase in the national debt is not good even in bad times and is nothing less than a tragedy in a healthy economy.
7
Growth Uber Alles!
No, I don't think we are the "envy of the world." There are other things besides growth that matter in a society, and many of those things rate very low in the US:
-health care outcomes
-k-12 education
-care for the mentally ill
-public transportation
-social mobility
-pollution from fossil fuels
-the world's highest number of mass murders
-a raging opiod epidemic
-never-ending wars
-a deeply flawed electoral system that does not elect the most popular candidate for president
So fine, we grew for a time. But our grave social and political problems remain.
21
Of course he takes a bow. But, he doesn't have a clue what the overall numbers mean. We may be in for a big fall when consumers stop buying so much more on credit. Businesses are not investing. That's bad. Will Trump take credit when it goes south?
9
What goes up must come down. Who will take responsibility when the economy explodes? (It won't be Trump.)
7
Selling out the integrity of the United States for a few bucks is a Faustian deal. This is how trump has conducted his so called “businesses” all of his life. It is one thing for trump to have no integrity, you can choose to invest your money with him or not, but for the USA to be operating at a major deficit in integrity and honesty will be a big price for the USA to pay for a few dollars in GDP. Its like the used car dealer putting sawdust in the transmission to sell the car.
14
@steven we cannot escape what this monster does. I have never done business with anyone involuntarily like this.
His name is President Trump. Or Mr. President. Show some respect.
The whole idea of "growth" doesn't make sense in view of the population-driven looming catastrophe of climate destabilization.
10
The economy here in Las Vegas is booming. But that may be to the exodus of individuals leaving California due to the high cost of housing and income taxes. Nevada has no income tax. There is a large increase in the Asian population which has provided greater diversity in the community. This may or may not be due to President Trump.
3
Republicans like Senator Thune from South Dakota promised that the tax cut would raise wages by $4,000. Is there any evidence this growth helps workers?
5
So then, the tax cuts are paying for themselves? Oh, so maybe not. What happens when all the communal resources and infrastructure that is being used right now to produce this GDP gets used up, and there is no money to pay for it's replacement. I guess you could say I'm one of those whining liberals, I would much rather see a sustainable economy with a healthy social safety net, clear air to breathe and clean water to drink, and fair opportunities for all. One real tragedy here is that analogous to the focused manufacturing powerhouse of the second world war, the US could have been the world and economic leader in clean power technology and climate change mitigation. Imagine our standing if we recognized our responsibilities in contributing to climate change and were taking active steps to address it here and abroad. Instead we hired a climate change denier who gave away the public trust to the wealthiest. I believe his claim to the success of the economy is not because he cares about the American worker, it is because of his thirst for power.
16
What goes up must come down. Will Trump take blame for the fall? Of course not. What a hero.
6
It's a little early. The government is pumping more money into the economy than it is taking out. From my inbox. it seems every day is Black Friday.
3
I believe consumer spending is being fueled by two groups of people, most of whom are at least upper middle class or trying to be. They are those who were untouched by the Great Recession or too young to have been affected by it. My daughter in her mid-30s with an excellent job never lost her job ten years ago but was scared to death she would as she watched colleagues being laid off by the dozens, and people like her aren't spending. But her friends are. They were just too immature to observe what was happening so they're living the high life mostly on credit cards and deferred student loans. The bill will come due though if they lose their job or fail to "take a course" to keep those loans in deferment. Then there are those of us who were near retirement ten years ago and got laid off just as we were trying to save for those last few years that would have allowed us to retire with some ability to enjoy life finally. We're not spending now either or enjoying life; we're just waiting for the next recession to finally kill us off. So spin your happy headlines all you want and Trump supporters, tell us we're all sour apples for being suspicious. History will repeat itself.
11
I know it's bad form to exhibit any suspicion about the validity of such sacred governmentally generated measures as the economic growth and unemployment numbers. But this is, after all, the Trump administration - not known for its fealty to factuality.
There are so many inputs and adjustments drizzled into that annualized growth number that it presents opportunities galore for any one of a number of administrators and quants under presidential pressure to fudge. The secret, as they say, is in the sauce.
It will be interesting to see what kind of sauce they cook up in October when (politically) it really counts.
7
@Jonathan Simon...Don't you think Putin is cooking the books [sauce] on all of the great numbers regarding the US economy? With so many millions of liberals living in abject misery, the US must really be on the verge of financial collapse. The stupid Trump doops are being lulled into complacency because they are too dumb to know how bad really are. Then KAPOW!!! Putin takes over, just as he and Trump colluded. The evil geniuses.
1
I think Democratic leadership probably learned first-hand that corporate loopholes needed to be closed when the Obama Administration’s government-subsidized solar start-up company was crushed by the larger corporate solar business competition. The 2012 Obama campaign proposed giving our smaller non-overseas manufacturers breaks to help them compete with our largest overseas operating corporations. (I think the Obama Administration took a lot of flack on the chin by giving the business contract to an acquaintance of President Obama’s; maybe someone The White House could trust not to politically-sabotage the company?)
Only a ‘Democratic Congress and White House’ would consider giving smaller corporations and businesses of all other sizes something like a, corporate-competitive-adjustment tax break, as Republican leadership would view it as a negative spin against their capitalism favoring the largest of corporations.
4
With the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ substantially lower yesterday, the same day the GDP number was released, it looks like the smart money is betting that the indicated growth is not sustainable.
10
I'm making as much as I was three years ago, which is minimum wage. So until Trump can convince his oligarchs to raise that a little, I will not cheer for him at all.
The Democrats are no better. Fight for $15/HR. As a direct care worker for stroke and other victims, I am worth it.
16
An economy that benefits from ignoring the consequences of global warming, exploiting the destruction of the environment and denying science and the development of renewable energy can show transient growth. What about tomorrow and the world we are leaving our children?
18
Experts question the durability of the Trump economy. It grew at a 3.1% annualized rate in the first half of 2018.
This is in line with an economic expansion now entering its 10th year.
Corporations hurried to avoid July's tariffs. They bought back stock & paid dividends with their massive tax cuts. But their windfalls didn't translate into higher wages--real wages have fallen. Corporations still keep their cash on hand.
Unemployment had been falling long before Trump took office. And under Obama, the unemployment rate for minorities fell by more than half. Trump takes credit.
We have more service-based industries than production. Baby boomers? Aging out of the economy. Fewer people being born. Banks making bigger/riskier loans we recall as subprime. Shades of 2007??
And 3.7 million new jobs since November, 2016 isn't earth-shattering. We face $1,085+ billion deficit next year. There won't be money for infrastructure programs. Or his ridiculous space warrior program. As a businessman--Trump had 6 bankruptcies. Keep that fact in mind.
15
@Whining Snowflake, Trump's whole life has been never looking back to see what might be catching up on him.
1
What a great number. It hasn't been this great since 2014. When Obama was President? The same Obama who inherited the wreckage of the world financial crisis.
And how much credit did the GOP and Trump voters give him and the Democrats that supported his policies? Well, Trump was elected. And the GOP controls both the House and the Senate.
17
@CWC
...And I can't wait for the BLUE TIDAL WAVE to wash over the country in November...Feels like an eternity under the Trump nightmarish term in office. But I'm a firm believer that, in the end, JUSTICE always prevails as the universe seems to distribute punishment and, as the case may be, rewards for deeds done in perfect measure. And in Trump's case, he's in for a universal thrashing the likes of which we haven't seen in decades (Nixon)...and it couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.
12
Everything is so fake in the US now that reality is lost at sea. This country has experienced a coup d'état by people too dishonest even to acknowledge the reality that "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion". "Identity politics" is only a question of which kiss-up kick-down patronage network one is describing.
1
Trump said on Hannity that "“We’re doing great. We could do a lot better, the fact is that if I can cut the trade deficit from $817 billion, think of that, we have a trade deficit with other countries — that’s trading with other countries, 817 billion — if I cut it in half, right there, we’ll pick up 3 to 4 points, so you could add that to the 4 of 5 and so we’d be at 8 or 9."
See how easy this is.
16
The following are some of the lconsequences likely with this rate of growth: 1) The U.S. is a matured economy. Not only is a 4% growth unsustainable but it is also not good for the economy in the long-term. With America fully employed, this rate of growth will put pressure on the job market. Wages will rise. It will also put pressure on other factor markets - raw material, capital - causing inflation and interest-rate hike by the Fed Reserve; 2) This relatively high growth is coming at a cost - over a $ 1 trillion addition to debt. Tax receipts are not likely to rise materially due to "full employment", which means the government must rely on exports-based income to repay debt. With the current tariffs-driven trade policy, rise in exports is doubtful; 3) America's factories will over produce creating demand-supply imbalance and possible recession in the intermediate future; 4) America's rising debt burden and the need to service it will be met by reduction in health and social services - entitlements; 5) In short, a moderate 2 to 3% growth is better for the long-term. Also, growth must be through scientific/technological innovation and development of new products and industries - it should not be by producing more of the same.
8
@Raghavan Parthasarthy
"With America fully employed, this rate of growth will put pressure on the job market. Wages will rise." Why is wage rising is a bad thing? Ordinary people need wage rise badly.
2
@Raghavan Parthasarthy, wages are falling in real terms now.
4
@Raghavan Parthasarthy Yeah, 'wages will rise'. Only an elitist would think that's a bad thing.
I think the largest of corporate lobbyists probably, somehow, talked President Reagan into taxing smaller corporations more than the largest as their way of attempting to financially outcompete their growing corporate competition that began under President Carter.
Top GOP Senate and House leadership now talked Trump into going along with their pigeon-drop tax plan; where the largest of corporations still qualify for the same corporate loopholes as before, that smaller corporations don’t qualify for.
3
Lest we forget, Obama hit over 4.1% growth four times during his Presidency without massive tax cuts or regulation dismantling and did it with a recovering economy, not an already pretty good one.
25
@Mary
Lest we forget, Obama needed a $trillion "stimulus" package and a Federal reserve willing to practically giving money away
@Mary, with zero help from the party of bottomless bad faith, no less.
Welcome back to the worst of Reaganomics. Stick a flag in one hand, a beer in the other, chant "USA, USA, USA," buy stuff now and believe that deficits don't matter. But they do, and we will all pay the price of this irresponsible economic jolt when reality again takes hold. Yes, people are spending, but investment in manufacturing is not where it needs to be to sustain this. And then there's the wild card: the trade war. Trump has taken a workable economy (and workable foreign policy, education system, ecological stance, etc., but I digress) and is distorting it unnecessarily for political purposes and will ultimately run it into the ground. So thanks for the buzz, Don the Con - and to everyone else, beware of the hangover.
16
@CP Note to Trump and his lickspittles: It's not growth, it's distribution that matters. You could "grow" the economy at 10% and call it "Great!" while virtually all of the benefit accrued to the 1% and, via your top-heavy tax cuts, the deficit - which will wind up being paid for by the 99% - soared beyond any reasonable Keynesian level. A cheap trick at any number, and nothing to celebrate. But that will be lost on the Fox News headline zombies. Trump's motto should be "If it ain't broke, I'll break it."
8
He is right. But is it a one time bump due to the tax cut legislation, legislation which will come back to haunt us as the increase in the national debt becomes unsustainable.?
5
@Richard Frauenglass I'm no economist, but am a voracious reader of news, a variety of opinions and history. I see the economy as a scale that is tipped one way or another by a variety of factors, not all of them economic. That's why I'm sad to state my opinion in answer to your question, yes.
2
@Richard Frauenglass, don’t forget the soybean pretariff bump. Imagine the bump from the increased sale of shock absorbers.
3
It looks like froth to me, from the paper transfer of money from foreign accounts to domestic ones motivated by tax law changes, the reversal of federal budget deficit reduction policies, and the hoarding motivated by potential tariffs. Consumer spending generally adds nothing to productive capacities and produces no future income. It is all motivated by a con-artist snowing a credulous US public for the umpteenth time to finesse past the November election.
After experiencing over two hours of traffic delay added to what is normally a four hour trip yesterday, I think it could all just freeze up into one gigantic traffic jam.
6
My economy is doing great do, I just took out a 10k advance on my credit card.
15
The economy is improving. Good, Trump's policies may have affected the GDP by tax cuts and higher spending. Used also at the beginning of the recession by Bush and Obama. Keynesian. The Structural problems with our economy remain. Is that serious? I don't know. Stimulating an expanding economy with tax cuts, while increasing large debt obligations, is like turning your headlights on, with a broken alternator and a weak battery during daylight. It doesn't make sense.
The Trump/Republican policies are aimed almost exclusively for business, their real constituency, to stimulate business and profits. Will it lead to trickle down this time? I don't know but I don't believe that business-only policies will solve structural problems like income disparity. Thomas Edsall's column the other day explained decade of progressive loss of income share for labor and increased share for profits.
Stimulating the economy to gain further political control by business is a dangerous strategy. We have been better off with a large strong middle class, not a bimodal social structure with very wealthy and barely surviving.
Business benefits from less regulation and tax, lower labor costs, access to National Monuments etc. We'd have the biggest economy, income disparity and a large low cost labor pool distracted by slogans, populism and media. Middle class will be dwindled for cheap labor cost. Is that the strategy? Is it inevitable that business scions are more equal than the rest of us.
15
With no real wage increases at the bottom end of the scale - and Ben Carson tripling the cost of low income rental housing - life is ugly in our country, not beautiful.
To take back Washington and restore our democracy starting in 2018, Democrats must champion the country's interest in business growth, job growth and wage growth along with the moral imperative to treat both people and our environment intelligently - with compassion and foresight.
This weekend's 2016 voting breakout published by The New York Times shocked me - not only finding out which counties voted for which candidate, but also seeing the number of people who voted, or I should say recognizing the vast numbers of people who did not vote. This disparity could be terrifying-or we could look at it as an opportunity. We must reach the disenfranchised to restore our democracy and build a thriving, successful economy from the ground up.
21
@common sense advocate, “Disenfranchised” or simply lazy and disinterested?
I could not agree more.
2
Ah! Will he accept the blame when things turn downward, as they inevitably will? Somehow, I doubt it, unless of course he is, for one reason or another, out of office when the reversal occurs.
13
@Skeptic It will be a race as to which happens first! But I believe both are coming.
@Skeptic
It will be Obama's fault.
Our economy is the envy of the entire world? They want 20 trillion dollar deficits? A deficit of over a trillion dollars just this year? I don't think so.
38
@Mgaudet
They will all be retired before people realize how they destroyed our children's future. No worries, I'm sure their pensions won't be affected.
1
@Mgaudet Ah, but remember, "the whole world loves us"!!! Delusion or lie. He's good at both!!!!
1
What’s happening now is the rather predictable cycle of one administration being blamed or taking credit for actions that were largely undertaken by the administration that preceded them.
The economy under George W. Bush tanked for a variety of reasons, including two unfunded wars, a massive tax cut for the wealthy, and excessive risk-taking in the financial sectors.
Obama came in and largely righted the economic ship, arguably too slowly, but assuredly and despite Republican intransigence. Nonetheless, Obama was criticized for a so-called “weak” recovery, and basically took the hits for an economy that was in terrible shape when he inherited it.
By the time Trump took office, the economic recovery that began under Obama had been accelerating for the final two or more years of Obama’s time in office. Trump took credit for the ongoing recovery that he inherited, and his acolytes believed him.
Now, under Trump, we’ve gotten another major tax cut for the wealthy and corporations, vows of extreme environmental deregulation, and potentially severe disruptions of currently flourishing trade partnerships. The result is what is widely predicted to be a temporary economic bump.
The “Trump bump” is happening just in time for the midterms, which will likely mean the GOP will retain control. By the time Trump’s actions crash the economy, Trump will be out of office, the Democrats will do cleanup, and the Democrats will be blamed for the crash they repaired. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
66
@Scott Fordin
Obama was a gracious man. He didn't point the finger at Bush. He simply said: let's clean this mess up. And, he did.
I hope the Democrats stop being gracious. Although I don't consider that to be a weakness, apparently, everyone else does. People seems to prefer bombastic bullies who have no idea what they're talking about.
There will be a new set of results in late October. We'll see.
@Scott Fordin - Trump by then will have been impeached, imprisoned, and his name stricken from any building or land bearing his infamous name. The Republicans will blame the Great Depression that resulted from their greed on "the disruption caused by Democrat Impeachment" of Trump, and they will repeat this lie relentlessly combined with birdwhistles and racist cants. Eventually when the economy recovers enough for greed to overcome remorse, we will be endangered once again by our nation's cycle of obdurate stupidity.
This graph should go back to 2001, just to compare the Bush Administration Tax Cuts, with those of Trump. Bush tax cut and rebated himself out of one recession, but eventually came the Great Recession.
Most of this "growth" is due to extra profits, because of tax cuts, at the corporate level. Most of that money went to stock holders, to buy up companies, outsourcing staff to overseas, laying off staff or to their bank accounts.
Eventually, like with Bush, the tax cut affect will end. It takes two quarters of negative growth to signal recession. Considering last quarter was double the growth of the previous quarter, when the tax cut affect ends, the growth will be negated.
Finally, one can say how great the economy is, but 1/5 of the country lives in poverty, many people are working multiple jobs to survive, people are working homeless, discrimination, in hiring, is rampant, interest rates continue to rise, tariffs are taking their toll on farmers and consumers, health care costs are out of control and most people are still waiting for the recovery from the Great Recession.
Sorry, in a booming economy, see 1990s, everyone shares in growth and wealth; not seeing increased poverty and declining wealth among 99% of the population. So, Trump is taking a bow, because the 1%, and himself, are making a killing at the expense of millions of people.
28
@Nick Metrowsky
I have 3 grandsons. one is entering college in a few weeks. What they have done is put that generation in debt for life.
Of course this is not new, but DT and his buddies have brought it to a new level.
10
@Nick Metrowsky
Nick, your last sentence hit the nail squarely on its head.
I don't know....Shouldn't the GDP be measured as GDP minus the budget deficit? Is it? Call it the VooDoo GDP or something.
18
I just want to get something off my chest. I only read the headline because its tone is so pejorative.
As an educator, I have to explain to students their president's behavior. One day, someone with his tendencies will believe he or she can be president. Belief is not a bad thing, but reinforcing bad behavior is.
That said, what president wouldn't make the good economy his or hers?
There are very few media studies classes in schools these days. I wish there were.
Thank you for listening.
13
I am beyond tired of hearing how the tax cuts are helping, even if only a little. Our very middle income earning family is being killed by the so-called "tax cuts." No longer being able to deduct healthcare costs (my wife and I are entering our 60s, she with a serious disability), has increased our taxes by several thousand dollars. Of course, the only reason I know how much it's costing us is because my employer suggested that all workers run the IRS estimated tax calculator early in the year. As a result, I actually had to direct my employer to increase my withholding to make up for the difference.
35
@Paulaj Thank you for your observation. I am pushing 70 and now living on my social security, meager savings cobbled together after educating 2 children as a self-employed person who paid enormous health insurance premiums (pre-Obamacare) with no help, and some small IRA's which I watched disappear overnight when the recession hit. It's frightening facing the future when you are just pre-retirement or in retirement, living in the "very middle income" range.
8
@Paulaj
Sounds like you have a wise employer, too bad this does not happen across the country. Then the trick he is using to wind the mid terms would not work.
Or I hope most middle class workers would get it.
1
It isn't hard to boost the economy when you borrow trillions and some of it gets into the hands of people who spend it. But, (a) this was extremely inefficient since much of the money went to rich people and stockholders (b) you still have to pay back the debt (and of course this puts Medicare and Medicaid at risk) (c) the Fed will continue raising interest rates to cool the economy. It was a horrible piece of legislation that may see some short-term growth, but look out long term.
39
To cite Mark Twain: There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damn lies, and statistics. No one should be celebrating these statistics while 20 percent of our nation lives in abject poverty.
43
@nzierler Not to mention the even larger percentage living on the edge who will be thrown into poverty when the next inevitable recession hits.
6
All I want to ask is #wheresmy4%
24
@Dick M that's what I say! how come I'm living backwards???
“Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” — Benjamin Disraeli
That was one of the themes I consistently repeated to my students when I taught statistics.
Without allowing us to see the full context and data, the numbers can be be twisted by those producing them to tell any story they want to tell independent of the underlying reality of the situation.
Unfortunately, given our Liar in Chief’s credibility gap, it’s hard to believe this statistic even if it might be true.
Sad.
28
“Trump Claims Credit As The Economy Hits A High Note”—how begrudging of the NYT in giving Trump any credit for the good economy. Well, at least you didn’t say “falsely claims,” as you usually do. Another change however reluctantly made, the NYT has apparently given up on claiming—falsely, I would say—that it’s still Obama’s economy. Just looking at the chart, it’s clear that during Obama’s last two years the economy was stumbling. Obama himself was predicting a new normal of one to two percent in GDP growth. “Those jobs aren’t coming back,” he predicted oh, so wisely, obviously referring to all those dirty deplorable jobs, and not to all those cool techie jobs on the liberal coasts. Apparently he could deliver on change but not on hope. Well, Americans have a way of striking back when politicians ask us to diminish our expectations, like Carter when he was telling us to wear sweaters instead of turning up the heat. Americans responded with a resounding “Hell, no!” and elected Reagan. So it is with Trump.
5
Americans didn't strike back by voting for Trump because they didn't vote for him at all. His supporters conveniently forget that the majority didn't vote for him. He lost by three million votes. They also forget that Obama brought us back from the brink of a depression, and the economy has been steadily climbing since. Also he rightly said those jobs weren't coming back because of automation. Liberal elitism had nothing to do with it. Conservatives never give Obama credit for saving this country's economy. I will give Trump credit if this growth is real and lasting. Right now, it looks like it's been falsely pumped up by deficit-borrowing, which is the exact same way Trump ran all his businesses into the ground.
20
@Ed Maybe so, but it's still not for everybody. I'm still struggling.
6
If the economy was doing poorly the NYT would blame Trump.
7
@SoCal Observer
On what do you base your prediction? A crystal ball?
1
@SoCal Observer and of course trumpie would lie about that too! Trump tells so many lies that I pay no attention to him anymore.....whatever the subject is!
1
If Trump takes credit, shouldn't he assume responsibility? I think your comment would be more accurate if you had said, if the economy was doing poorly, Trump and his supporters would blame Obama/Mueller/Europe...Anyone but Obama. And people who excuse Trump's vile, vulgar, amoral behavior, his chronic lying, the negative impacts of his tax cuts and tariffs, etc., probably shouldn't be accusing others of making arguments to suit their agendas.
2
Trump is doing what a community organizer could never have done.
9
If you ventured outside the bubble of fealty you would see a community organizer accomplished that feat twice.
3
@P McGrath Someone didn't bother to read the article, let alone look at the graph at the very top of it.
2
You do realize that DT hasn't done too much to undo the mess GWB handed Obama and that things were so bad when Obama got into office that Obama said growth out of the Great Recession would be slow but steady? And that the trllions of tax cuts haven't hit yet? Do you think like there was no economy before DT came in and the whole policy is his doing? Where did you learn economics? Sponge Bob?
3
Donald Trump inherited a booming economy. How he could manage to screw it up is the headline. To distract from him and certain members of his administration being complicit with the actions of the Russian Federation to undermine the 2016 presidential election, we are subjected now to this TBD traitor taking credit for an economy he would certainly condemn if asked nicely by Vladimir Putin.
9
Well, how #Bigly! Look forward to Trump taking credit for the $1,000,000,000,000,000 deficit.......
37
@Leonard Campbell After experiencing several bankruptcies himself, I think he knows how to handle deficits in a bigly way!
How much is the self-made border debacle costing us? And the welfare we’ll be paying to farmers due to another self-made crisis? I’m glad the economy is humming along for the moment, but the financial health of our nation needs tending to.
11
As much as I hate to admit it, Trump is falling into the familiar presidential pattern of taking credit for things that go well under his watch and blaming the opposition for his problems, just as all of his predecessors have done in the last generation or two. He’s just much less artful in the way he does it.
9
if the economy is this good going into 2020 it will be harder to get rid of him
we have all got to pray the economy tanks in 2019
that would be best possible scenario
1
@j Only someone with nothing to lose and no family to protect would hope for a disaster. Total loser.
Credit where credit's due: he hasn't derailed the Obama Recovery!
14
...yet
And of course if things were tanking the Fake News president would blame everyone, including Obama.
12
And
The deep stare
Hillary
Bill Clinton
The Democrats.....
Adnauseum
Well, ok, at least Trump hasn't fouled up the Obama Recovery.
16
@Nyetaryan Wait. It's coming.
1
Modest guy, isn't he!
3
Who righted the ship afte Bush Jr. crashed it: Obama. Who handed over a healthy economy to trump: Obama. Who will crash the economy, again, after giving all our nation's wealth away to the 1%: trump.
27
@Joe Smally Whay healthy economy? Obama handed Trump an economy growing at 1.6 percent. More people than ever were working part-time jobs and some worked more than 1 job. Many more were on food stamps. Economys growth was slowest in history. Obama said the manufacturing jobs were never coming back. Finally the economy is booming, people are getting full-time jobs with healthcare and off of food stamps. Wages are increasing and people are getting bonus money - the crumbs Pelosi speaks of from her multi-million dollar estate. Best of all is that we are just getting started!
5
How did Obama right the ship? I really need information on this one. As far as I know he happily oversaw a housing crash by giving money to banks instead of to infrastructure. He didn't put people to work, rather sat back and watched his friends get rich while families with children lost their homes. But, please do feel free to change my mind!
This is a lovely lovely Trump economy. Usually post-recession recoveries start to taper off after nearly a decade in. Not this one. This one’s got some major fire under it. Only a “science denier” could dispute the foregoing. Kudos to our duly elected commander in chief!
4
@Bill Duly elected mean the majority of voters put someone in office. In Trump's case, they didn't.
7
The economy is only doing well for the rich people. This article is corporate gaslighting at it's worst.
20
Say goodbye to midterm elections for the left.We will see 3rd quarter numbers before the election and they will blow out the 2nd quarter.
Trump sounds like a blowhard to the left but to many he's simply explaining just how plain stupid the Obama administration was and how we need to learn that intellectuals with no real world experience should not be running much outside the classroom.
7
@Charles in service
I loved that “blood moon” eclipse Trump caused, too. His awesomeness evidently knows no bounds.
1
Yet another bubble dwelling self deluding right winger.
Pop goes the bubble!
Must have been hard for the NYT to post this article: good news under Trump. Winning, and more winning. Trump this, Trump that. Must have been tough. Thank you, NYT, for your grudgingly objective reporting. It'll be hard to convince my fellow readers who are the extreme left wing.
6
@Labete it may just be that “the extreme left wing” defines “winning” in terms other than financial.
3
@Labete
How does one determine if objectivity is given “grudgingly,” pray tell? Objectivity either is, or it isn’t.
A simple “Thank you” on your part (if appropriate) would suffice. Your “praise” here was given a bit too grudgingly to be sincere.
Why can't you ever give the man (Trump) any credit? Even when there's good news you temper it. Just report, no matter what, and then opine later. Least you can do for being the "paper of record."
6
@Mattbk
Ever heard of context? For serious, thoughtful, rational folks it’s really a thing.
1
Tax relief, regulatory reform, unemployment down, NATO ponying up, NK talking/Korean War remains returning, China being challenged on trade, ISIS decimated in Syria, SCOTUS getting two Constitutionalists. Trump 2020!
5
Tax relief? You are a ny er
When your taxes go up for 2018 will you still be claiming tax relief?
If so just another kook aid drinker
How sad
Every President is effectively tied to economic performance under his watch, whether deserved or not. Trump is boasting just like his predecessors in the Oval Office; if the economy were tanking, you wouldn’t hear a sound from the White House.
The massive tax cut under Trump, however, will be his Achilles Heel. He did a deal with the devil (Congress) to drastically cut taxes at a time of positive economic momentum, and while households are enjoying a bit more in their take home pay, the piper will soon come calling.
Like so much of us are forced to do out of economic necessity to make ends meet, Trump has put off serious long-term budgeting by promoting a short, one time blip. According to the latest projections, it will be a future Administration and all of us who are enjoying our meager tax cut now who will be bearing the brunt of excessive government debt and high interest rates in the decades ahead.
Like my children. And yours.
3
Luckily people don't understand ratios. Debt to GDP is a nice ratio. Spike the debt and what happens to the GDP short term? (depending on where the money is placed)
Hope is fungible!!
Of course a willingness to take on debt reflects our vision of the future, either it will be better and we will be able to pay the debt down (explains college loans :-) ) , or the future is so dark it will not matter (why pay down the mortgage if you plan to burn down the house).
Right now all that matters is the midterms..
Anyone paying attention knows that presidents have very little control over the economy, but ok, let's imagine they do for a moment. Are Trump supporters giving Obama credit for pulling us out of the worst recession since the 30's? Are they blaming GWB for creating that recession? Trump's policies have achieved one thing however: an annual deficit of 1 trillion dollars and rising sharply.
One thing you can depend on from Trump, he will betray you. Just like he betrayed his 3 wives, hundreds of contractors over the years, his own attorney, and all of us collectively when he cozies up to Putin who is actively engaged in disrupting our democracy. The man is a complete embarrassment to our country. The only good thing I can say is that he hasn't gotten us into a hot war (yet). That's a pretty low bar.
6
There are few issues in that country the contemporary president isn't somehow involved. Odd.
1
Every song has high and low notes. If you judge a song on just one note, you ignore it’s overall quality. This is not a beautiful song. We still have kids in cages, no allies except Russia, EPA being dismantled, $trillion plus deficit, worse healthcare, Puerto Rico in shambles, racism on the rise, climate change being denied, rising oil prices, elections being subverted, Social Security and Medicare under attack, trade wars being masked by massive subsidies, excessive gun deaths and a president that mocks democracy. So not impressed by the statistic. I would like my country to be back to the way it was. I would trade the financial windfall Trump has given to the 1% for a chance to reverse the damage he’s done.
11
@Mark Rindner Make America Great Again! The mentality and obligation that FDR instilled after the Great Depression. The government has a social obligation to all of its people for a quality of life. That mentality helped get us out of the depression and then came the institution of Social Security. FDR came from money too! How 'bout that!
1
@Mark Rindner I’m with you, Mark. However I have a friend who identifies as conservative who said “I got a conservative on the Supreme Court and $2000/yr in tax cuts, I’m happy.” — so I guess we all get to determine our “price.”
2
Trump gets to take a bow for this, no doubt. Any president would. It won’t change my opinion that the man desecrates the office.
A bump in the economy does not change his abject lack of character.
14
@Rose
Classless, clueless, and shamelessly (and constantly) taking undeserved credit, Trump will always be his favorite person .... with all the best words, etc.
2
Unemployment is at 30 percent.We are on the verge of total economic collapse. Foreign business investment in the US has fallen off a cliff. The tax cuts have raised the deficit to a staggering 20 trillion and produced no increase in business investment, no increase in wages, no jobs, and no increase in consumer spending. the tax cuts have been swallowed by the top 1 percent, the gop donors. trump's trade war and tariffs are only beginning to bite. in a couple of quarters the growth is going to go negative by 5 percent and we will be in a recession. the only 'growth' was in defense spending with nobody to fight other than our 'foes', the europeans. trump is licking the ground putin walks on. government spending at the local and state level has gone down or increased by zero(wait till 2019 when the salt limitation kicks in-it will go to zero). the stock market is down or neutral. the economy is stuck at zero growth since 2017. america is going down, down, down under trump. he is a pathological liar and thug. nothing he says is believable, whether it is the economy or his collusion with putin in 2016 and even now.
4
@Observer you described how I'm living!
Wow!
The anti-Trump spin is alive and well. Suddenly the Leftists are deficit hawks!
Obama recovery? Please explain what Obama policies has moved the economy forward? And please don’t say increase the money supply, that only benefits the 1%.
3
Gee, if Trump can do that without MASSIVE deficits, then he might get some credit. He deserves our disgust for not caring about the LONG term economics.
14
@Thoughtful Fact is that the money spent on fueling this economy with tax reductions has already been recouped. Deficit building belongs to Obama.
2
@BobsOpinion
When was it recouped?. Taxes collected by the federal government has plunged to historically low levels in the first six months of the year, pushing up the federal budget deficit much faster than economists had predicted. In other words, the federal deficit has now topped over 1 trillion dollars. Excuse me!!
1
@Pike Don't infuse any facts for the trumpies. They will find out for themselves come tax time that they are the ones paying for the tax cuts to the billionaires.
1
Of course Trump's going to take credit just like he would have blamed the democrats if it had been a new low.
There is no one with a bigger EGO then Trump.
5
@BTO He has a tremendous ego, jus like anyone that has served in that office. You (and I) might not like the way he sends his message, however I like the message. He deserves the credit for this economy my friend.
1
Did you see that full moon last night? Spectacular. Thanks Donny.
12
The Times and their fellow travelling commentariat (aka "The Echoes") are unbelievable. What we have seen Trump do is create a business friendly environment and that has stimulated growth. Growth means jobs -- it means more money for employees as companies compete for labor -- it means ultimately good things in the social realm as well.
But NOOOOOO. Too bad. If Trump had anything to do with it it's either not good or it's really due to Obama. Ridiculous.
Here's why the dems won't win in Nov or in 2018. They've gone so daft, so loony, so irresponsible that no one in their right mind would want to be governed by a party so whacky. Completely delusional and out and out liars in many instances. The dems. Not Trump or the Repubs.
4
@Ralphie
Did you even read the article?
Thanks a ton for that spleen venting, though - very entertaining.
2
Trump is the ultimate narcissist... he obviously believes that the world revolves exclusively around him. "Taking a Bow" -- as the article title implies -- only shows that there's no end to Trump's carnival barking. In the end, his failed attempts to cover-up his overall ineptitude will ultimately lead to his demise.
With the tax cut America basically took out new credit cards with in the fine print, the cash bonus points and zero % rates going to the highest earners and yet, the lowest earners (convinced from watching Fox and Facebook that somehow those perks were for them and the high rates wouldn’t matter) out at the malls buying things from China they think are free. Great job.
8
@Victor Young good analysis. I agree
1
No, we are not the envy of the world. Everywhere I travel out of the country I get condolences for living in the USA under him.
6
You can darn right its Trumps economy
Lifted regulations
Cut taxes
Unleashed capitalism
Wow
And He promised it
1
A promising start but only a start.
The big question is can the growth be sustained?
One quarter a trend does not make.
And while cash provided by tax cuts no doubt spurred
growth what happens when that wears off? More tax cuts?
I don't think that would be a good idea at all.
And what happens when the negative effect
of tariffs (taxes) kicks in? A lot of backtracking talk?
Trump should wait at least another quarter before declaring
victory but that's how con men run their scam---
get your hopes up with a lot of cheerleading and sales talk
then fail to deliver then backtrack to cover their butt.
Sounds a lot like the scam that was Trump University.
Sounds a lot like how Trump is running his Presidency.
Do you really think Trump is going to change his strategy
just because he's President? Once a scam artist always
a scam artist. Trump is not to be trusted under any
circumstances. Beware America Trump bearing "deals".
5
Trump would really be able to claim credit if he inherited an economy where the auto industry was near bankruptcy...the student loan programs were in trouble ..the home loan programs were in trouble because they lent money to people who could not afford their homes and many defaulted etc. and he had straightened it out.Of course he said he inherited a real mess?? The deficit is out of this world! Who's paying for Trump's security as he golfs ...which he said he would be too busy to do? Who is paying for the reunification of children separated from their parents flying back and forth across the country...the proposed subsidies to farmers?? Who's paying for the Meuller investigation? With the deficit so high and creeping higher...though the economy may seem to be doing well.. isn't the situation basically as it was before the collapse of the auto industry...student loan and mortgage problems? You can use credit cards to purchase all kinds of things seeming to be successful and make minimal payments...but sooner or later...reality hits and you have to pay up! Then you realize things weren't so good after all !! We are living in the similar situation that Obama wound up having to deal with !
5
Tucked into this article, as almost a parenthesis, is a fact check link to say that the indicators cited by Trump supporting his claim of a role in the economic success lacked foundation or context. So is this part of his warning not to believe what you see or read? I'm struggling with the headline (Trump takes a bow) versus the caveat (Trump cites false indicators). Reality and lies: that's where we are. Newspaper practice in the midst of the Trump era means I read some vaguely ambiguous or subservient headlines, begin a story that wants to tell a normal sequence of events, and then provides a fact checking link somewhere around the 4th paragraph that yeah, there was no foundation for much of what was said. I'm going to go take a walk and practice putting one foot in front of the other, breathe some fresh air, clear my head, think about lunch.
1
In what universe has the economy "hit a high note?" Not mine, that's for certain. But who even knows what's going on anymore, really? It's all lies, all the time, by whomever is in power. It's all about protecting the non-entities that are Wall Street and corporate personhood and "my legacy" and pretending that these are the things that constitute what i means to be "America." Is there really no way to change this system so that it functions for the majority of us, or must we live our entire lives enslaved by this fakery, this corporate enslavement, this mockery of a democratic republic?
2
@Chaparral Lover
Amen brother or sister!
1
I am so sick of this presidency. I honestly don't know how I--or the country, for that matter--is going to survive a full term (or god forbid--two terms) of this Trump fool.
6
..., indeed, what a brilliant strategist Trump is. In his own little uncomplicated universe, that is.
For a somebody, who is “very highly educated”, and “has the best words”, such a staggering lack of macro and micro economic understanding, is - well - quite unusual with the exception of banana republic dictators.
But then again; in this sad and somewhat perverse reality; Trump, among his voters and backers, is the perfect demonstration of the tallest dwarf syndrome.
In his circles, he does not have to be clever or smart, he just has to be Trump. How that will serve the nation is an altogether different matter, which will be detailed in history books for generations to come.
A prediction: when GDP growth stalls, or worse - Trump’s talk track will be: “..., what you see and hear isn’t the truth, it isn’t really happening - it’s fake news, don’t worry - just trust me.”
It’s certainly America First - all the way down, and with a 2020 win, it might be down and out.
3
Trump takes credit for the economy. It is like the rooster taking credit for the sunrise.
5
This is just the beginning. When the benefits of Trump's global trade realignment program start to kick-in, growth is going to accelerate at an even greater rate- a significantly greater rate... get ready!
1
I'm almost sure you're joking. Right?
What about The Federal deficit
6
And in two, three, four years...Hello! I'm back! The Republican-fueled recession that will shake the world!
2
Trump's economic plan is simple --- Can't pay the bills? Don't.
How long until we see the headline: IMF to bail out the US?
3
I learned more, and got sharper insights, from reading many of these comments than I did from reading the entire article.
3
"Once again, we are the economic envy of the entire world,” he said." So how does this square with all the recent belly aching Trump did to NATO countries & the G7 - about how badly all its allies were treating the US, how the allies were "foes" & no-one was paying their fair share to the US, having taken advantage over the yrs of the overly magnanimous Americans. There seems to be major cognitive dissonance with these 2 Trump stances taken in just this 1 month alone. So is he the poor little rich boy he played to the G7 & to NATO or is he the Johnny-come-lately hero CEO of the business club he is "managing" as President?
8
Too early to tell because the effects of the tarifs haven't came close to killing us yet.
6
@William Carlson Tariffs will be coming down if not off. EU has apparently got the message. Japan, Canada and Mexico are negotiating. China is showing signs of severe pain and is predicted to end their tariffs. Trump is right with the tariffs. This should have been done decades ago.
2
Mr. Trump follows the political equivalent of the corporatist's playbook: Privatize the gains and socialize the losses. If it is good, it is all him. If it is bad, it is the fault of China or NAFTA or Europe (but never Russia) or MS-13 or Mexicans or (most often) Obama.
Oh, and as always, no collusion.
This song is getting very old.
4
We are the economic envy of the entire world yet owe $21 trillion in the national debt and running close to $1 trillion deficit in the budget. Only a mentally ill nation could envy that.
4
No mention of wages. Sad.
7
The economy hits a high note! With this declaration Ben Casselman and the NYT show their bona fides as enablers of a cruel and heartless Trump administration and pitiless Congress while across this country tens of thousands of unemployed and struggling workers are excluded from the employment figures issued every quarter.
The NYT keeps painting its rosy employment picture and it is well aware of its influence on the coming election.
The economy is doing fantastically well. Not wages, particularly, but i’ve heard that money will trickle down, eventually. And all this made possible by Trump, who found a clever way to take the money that had been earmarked for things like Medicare and social security and health care subsidies, and give it to the wealthy to invest. Yes, he owns this economy now. I give him full credit, and I will continue to as it plays out in the future.
1
Everyone posting here at the Times is correct, this economy is as much Obama's as it is Trump's - maybe more - but some of it *is* Trump's. For example, Obama proposed the corporate tax cut and Trump got it passed - in a global economy all the high rates were doing was relocating profits off shore.
I think the legitimate posts here are the warnings about what Trump's policies (on trade, the environment, consumer protection, as examples) will do in the near future. I'll be shorting the US economy for the next 18 months - even a Democrat would have faced a correction and Trump is pulling back the protections and buffers much as Clinton/W did - and that could lead to a very hard landing.
In a year everyone now crowing about this hot market should remember that Obama worked hard to insure that we brought the mass of the population along for the recovery and that the recovery was solid and deep with better protections from economic vagaries and corporate profiteering. Trump has contributed to the hot, low unemployment, high growth economy - but thats a second quarter of 2018 story - what's the long view?
7
It's a sugar high. We are going for a short-term (as in, election cycle) boom built upon government debt.
The Crash is coming. And this time, we'll be even more in debt.
6
Give credit where it's due: it's hard to argue that Trump's and the Republican Congress's policies aren't contributing to these economic boom times.
It will be even harder to argue against their ownership of the bust that inevitably follows massive deregulation, tax cuts and trade wars.
5
@Bo Yes, but it's rather like me getting a bunch of credit cards and maxing them out to buy a bunch of toys, then blaming the banks when I go bankrupt. And that is where Trumponomics is taking us: national insolvency.
5
The economy may be up for now, but the numbers that matter most for many of us have to do with economic inequality. If you are a shareholder this is great, but what about the vast numbers of people who still can't get $15 hour?
7
Congratulations to President Trump on pushing policies that clearly have revved up the economy...we need to criticize as well as give credit to Mr. Trump where warranted.
6
@Brad Lloyd not at the cost of what he has done for generations to come with more debt and helping to wreck our planetary home. Short-term profit, yes. But at the cost of future generations who will curse him and his supporters.
4
When everything finally implodes, Trump will likely still be crowing how great and wonderful he is. He'll convince us the mess is good for us and will further convince us that it's all the fault of Obama.
Economies don't go on forever. Eventually there will be a correction and we'll start all over. There's only so much money to spend, so many things to make, so many people to make it happen and just so many people who have the means and desire to purchase. All we need in life is more stuff and clutter.
I certainly hope there's more to life than producing the clutter and making money.
3
Sure, the pie is getting bigger, but the issue is: who gets to have a piece? The vast majority of the profit is going to the top.
8
I find it laughable that many commentators are complaining of a rising Federal deficit while the economy is growing. Yet these same commentators never complained during the Obama administration wen the economy was in great decline and Obama doubled the Federal deficit.
6
@Ed Kmiec Evidence for "great decline" under Obama, please? Remember where employment and GDP growth were in January 2009--in the toilet. Had it not been for QE and TARP, begun under Bush, we'd still be in a Depression.
We made progress in every measure except paying down our national debt. And Trump is doing not a thing about that, either.
6
@Ed Kmiec
I'm sorry, but this comment doesn't make sense. When economic times are good is when revenues should be going up and the deficit should be going down, and getting paid down. It is troubling when the opposite happens. Obama was handed a trillion plus deficit "baked into the cake" and the economy turned positive within a few months of his taking office, while the deficit was eventually cut to a third of the original value.
5
It is good news except that our deficit is rising during a good economy when it should be going down. So much for tax cuts pay for themselves. This is just like Regan, Bush II. When will we learn to borrow in bad times and pay down in good times? I guess when nobody wants your Bonds.
14
Full employment is wonderful but we are living in an economic sugar high because even in this roaring economy, our fiscal situation is becoming more dire and we have used the tools of recession fighting prematurely to pump up a good economy making those tools less available when the economy slows down as it inevitably will. Everyone from California to New Hampshire and Trump himself feels vindicated as to their economic policies but the entire globe is trending. But are we building strength for the changes that happen ?
7
The only jobs being advertised for in our area are in the service industry...and they are paying minimum wage. Thankfully I am employed in the social services industry where (unfortunately) there is no shortage of depressed, unemployed, anxious, and substance abusing people. We live in an economically depressed area that went for trump in a big way...there are pockets of development but no real change has come here despite trump's crowing. Our governor is also shouting out how wonderful this president is for our state but I think he really means himself...so far the economic high notes just sound like a shrill huckster's screech to my ears.
13
I recall Fall 2007 when the economy was booming. We all know what happened next.
17
It's because of a buying spree before tariffs are instituted. Going into 2019 is not going to be so pretty.
20
It appears to me that there is a two year lag in economic result of action. In other words the policies that are put in place today, we will not see the benefit or detriment of for two calendar years. Look back through history over the past thirty years and you will undoubtedly see that this is the case with some small outliers.
In my opinion, if the economy is running at this pace in February of 2019 then I will give Mr. Trump well deserved credit for his actions. Until then, my opinion is that these are the lagging results of the Obama administration.
20
Who'd get the blame if the figures weren't good?
Give credit where credit is due.
8
@MIKEinNYC so next quarterly report is totally on him - fair enough - 3% will be a 25% drop in economic growth and 2% will be a 50% drop.
2
He can take a curtsy for all I care. He had no role in the growth of the economy. But being the bloviator that he is, he took credit for it anyway. Let's see what happens when the economy returns to its normal growth path, which it will starting with the next quarter. Where will his blather be then? We know, don't we.
21
Is the US national debt the envy of the world? It has caused the latest surge. What do we do when interest rates go up?
11
@Will Hogan go bankrupt, of course. Trump knows well how to do that.
1
If you look at economic history and trends over the decades, you will come to realize that this economic growth will not continue and is not sustainable. Eventually there is going to be a correction, so enjoy it while it lasts.
Unemployment is a a record low — it is actually too low. Businesses and employers are finding it increasingly hard to find employees to fill positions — this too will correct itself.
As for Trump, of course he will take credit for all of the positives, while blaming prior administrations, news media, etc for the negatives.
14
Another indication--as if we needed any more--that Trump's ideation takes place on a 7-year old boy's level. He puffs out his senescent chest and claims credit for the economy. Even as a billionaire, if indeed he ever was one given the tangled web of finances left behind, he is only one of billions of factors that add up to the nebulous construct we term "economy." Obviously his dad bribed Wharton to confer a degree on Donald if he presumes to take credit for this...
21
Just to note, this "amazing" 4.1 growth would only be President Obama's 5th best quarter.
Obama
5.1% Q2 2014
4.9% Q3 2014
4.7% Q4 2011
4.5% Q4 2009
44
It may be the case that one third of the US population will give credit to Donald Trump for this economic high note. Two thirds certainly do not. And more importantly, in some years time, History will set the record straight. And it won't be kind to Donald Trump.
27
If you are fortunate enough to have extra money at this time, I recommend using it to install solar panels. The economic growth will not last forever but the solar panels will continue to create free electricity for 25 years. This is a good move for the environment, for our country's solar industry and for your financial security in the future.
13
If the same formula was used to measure wages that is used to measure Trump's "great" economy, then I would be making about $18/hour instead of minimum wage of $11/hour.
18
How can anyone whose mind is not filtered by irrational political ideology not recognize that President Trump has accomplished so much in a short period of time?? On the same day that our economy grew an amazing 4.1 per cent ,many bodies of our fallen heroes from the Korean War have arrived back home where they belong.
4
@Hank - The economy is still coasting on the Obama years, Trump has done nothing to help it and if you read the Business section you will see that there have been layoffs because of his policies or delayed plans for expansion.
It's nice that those bodies have been returned but that does nothing for the average American and meanwhile Trump has damaged the relationship with every one of our allies.
26
@Hank,
Personally, my health care has gotten more expensive, and my wages haven’t budged. Trump’s effect on my economy has been bad, which is why it’s been so good for the more fortunate. But yes, great news about the return of our fallen heroes from the Korean War, and the economy as it pertains to the wealthy. Don’t let your filters keep you from seeing anything else.
14
Peter, you are so right. Whatever and whomever can get credit for this economic upturn, it benefits the already wealthy and corporations almost entirely. The issues that turned the tide in Trump's favor - the shrinking middle class, the financial struggles of the working poor and the failure reduce the number of poor and hungry - have not received benefit at all. What are the wages increase figures? An up turn there would really impress me. Seems the old saying, "The rich get rich and poor get poorer', remain sadly true.
2
“When the last tree has been cut down, the last fish caught, the last river poisoned, only then will we realize that one cannot eat money.”
50
Kindly enlighten me whenever there is a chance to take claim for or credit for something, that it would not be Trump? This is an action from someone who constantly lies, someone who has no self esteem, someone who treats women as excess change in their pocket, someone who rather sign another executive order to increase his personal wealth than to provide for the medical treatment of those in need.
26
We were on the correct course, republicans of course are creating bubbles, a bubble that will again burst with the trillion dollar deficit republicans are so comfortable with and the big money give-a-ways at your friendly Trump Store 23 Billion Dollars to be exact Your Social Security, unemployment insurance and health plan money they give away.
What enables a country to borrow from taxpayer funds as they do? National Security? ICE? How are these people enabled to take half of your paycheck and spend it outside of of what is supposed to be your contributions?
There's a growing formation as wacky as Citizens United who are helping themselves to money that you pay into a fund for your own health and human services republicans will bankrupt.
Sue them. They are not representatives of the people, they represent those Citizens United through The Supreme Court, not the executive branch, not the legislative branch and they are as phony as a confederate dollar.
18
Inflation of cost of living prices, housing, utilities, food and now what ever rises due to the turnitp's tariff war has more than eaten up any increase in share of profits to workers.
Sounds like trump can only brag to to already rich.
16
@memo laiceps,
Brag to the rich, and give puffery to the masses.
“Puffery” being the technique taught to all real estate salespeople about the lies you can tell without getting sued. Biggest inauguration crowd ever!! Landslide victory!! Massive voter fraud! Better, cheaper, health care!! (And thousands more...)
3
My, what a bunch of snarky comments. The economy was doing well before Trump. It is doing even better under Trump. That is good news. Let’s enjoy it and hope it lasts.
3
@Robert
People are concerned that by financing short term growth with a record deficit via tax cuts, we are jeopardizing the future of things like Medicare and social security.
Enjoy the economy now, but rather than hoping it lasts, I sugget making sure you have $3 million in the bank for later. What comes next looks pretty bad.
5
@Robert - That's the problem. It is doing about the same. Look at the data in the figure in the article from 2012. Compare this period to 2014. But yeah, it is doing well, about the same as it was under Obama. And whatever credit/blame was given to Obama for 2009-2016 should be given to Trump for 2017-present.
Interestingly it looks like there's a bit of a dip around elections (regardless of who wins).
1
@Robert
With all due respect, your oversimplification is really at the heart of all this. What, after all, is "the economy" and what does it mean to say it is doing well? Because the way I see it, unless prosperity is shared by all, its not really prosperity. I see no sign that the American economy is making everyone prosperous. That it enriches just a few people is nothing new and, having instituted nothing more than a huge giveaway to rich people and some environmentally damaging deregulations, Trump has done nothing economic that merits praise or even a second look for that matter. Its business as usual and we the people always lose on that one.
3
"It’s economic conventional wisdom that in times like this you should prepare for the future..." ---- "WISDOM" is one thing, among a host of others, you cannot count-on with donald trump. consumers and businesses should prepare for the whiplash that will surely come, sooner than later.
15
To assess such things properly and honestly requires a level of intellectual honesty and commitment to the scientific method that neither Trump, nor the GOP, nor the average Trump supporter has.
One has to be dispassionate and disinterested. Said more to the point one has to NOT have self-serving ulterior motives that overwhelms conclusions.
One has to be rigorous in collecting all relevant data - historical and contemporary - avoid cherry-picking - avoid confirmation bias - avoid the sins of omission and commission.
One must present their methods, data, and conclusions totally and openly.
One must make testable predictions within testable models that consider as best possible all drivers and factors. That is especially applicable when declaring cause and effect.
One must welcome falsification and negative critique.
One must live by the hammer of proper evaluation criteria, facts, and truth.
Anyone with a modicum interest in/allegiance to the notions of truth must see verity of my first paragraph.
It sickens me that a large swath of the Nation is buying the Trump GOP con.
But must frightening is the undertone I am seeing developing in the non-Trump people.
"As long as the trains run on time" or "we have work and super highways" - "what's the problem with a bit of hate mongering and militarism - or obviously fallacious propaganda!"
Maybe the new generations won't understand my fears until too late. Maybe our only hope is that my generation gets woke!
30
Any president would be justified to take credit for robust economic numbers, even if it was something started under his predecessor. Serious doubts if it will last with the tariffs thing and the debt thing thanks to the tax break for the wealthy, but for now, he gets to take what he can get.
5
Like it or not what is good for the goose is good for the gander. If the economy was tanking everyone would be blaming Trump. It's his economy now and deserves credit although he didn't have to do much given what he inherited. We are lucky he didn't come in during a crisis.
13
@sapere aude
If that is true, then what happens when he creates a crises.
1
@sapere aude ---- and woe betide us all should a crisis hit. and crisis self-imposed is guaranteed with trump.
2
The growth of the US economy (GDP) began under ex-Pres. Obama and Trump has not interrupted that growth. As the article's first sentence states "Tax cuts and federal spending are adding fuel to the already strong economy," Trump's major accomplishment was his ability to not interupt the growth.
22
Soybeans? Really? How many soybeans does it take to budge GDP even 1/10th if 1%? A minuscule bump in a single month year-over-year and it's "Unsustainable! It's all smoke and mirrors!"
Get on the Train folks. America REALLY is being made great again. One hyperventilating leftist at a time.
3
Why in the world shouldn't he claim credit? Though presidents often have little to do with the economy, 90% of the commenters and certainly the Times' columnists would blame him completely if it tanked. The "resistance" actually credit Obama now after so many years of little growth while he was in charge. And if he was president, there is no limit to the credit that would be coming his way.
A commenter here once wrote, "No credit for Trump ever," as close as I can remember. At the NATO meeting Jens Stoltenberg, NATO's Sec'y General gave Trump credit for his leadership to get nations to contribute their agreed share (which he wants too). Trump said, "They'll never print it," pointing to the press. If it were Obama, it would have been the headline.
What happened? Business knew what Trump was about. They've had some deregulation and change of the tax laws. Of course, he gets credit. It is one of the rare times you can see the cause and effect unless you are blinded by partisanship. I've never been a Trump supporter (I know from experience - you think I am), but the evidence is clear.
But, as Sec'y Pompeo likes to say - Fear not. For what goes up must come down, and Trump haters, who would prefer America to tank, just so that they can lay it on him, eventually will see it slow down and maybe even crash. And maybe slow growth is safer - I can't say.
7
@David H. Eisenberg Do you see the graph? Do you see how many quarters of above 3% growth we had when Obama was President? It's because YOU don't give Obama enough credit (while giving Trump credit) that people don't give Trump credit also - why would they?
And in Obama's case, the problem was harder given where he started? Compare the difference from where Obama started to where Trump started. Trump gets credit for not messing up the economy entirely but remember Bush 2 also started strong and ended badly. Sure, businesses love it when their shackles are removed and eased but like with other periods, it'll come home to roost. Look around the world over the decades to see what works best: highly regulated capitalism is what works best.
3
@David H. Eisenberg...why shouldn't he claim credit? Because, the things you suggest that he's responsible for are nothing more than adolescent tantrum-induced executive reversals of his predecessor's initiatives that haven't even taken effect yet. He's done NOTHING.
You know better, David. That same predecessor reiterated ad nauseam how the recovery would be a slow, grueling process. In fact, in the early days of his tenure, he was adamant about the fact that it would get worse before getting better, which it did. You conveniently won't recall that though. He accepted with grace that HIS predecessor would likely reap the benefits of painful decisions HE had to make in order to clean up the remnants of the financial orgy he was forced to claim as HIS inheritance, courtesy the financial corporate whores before him. Not to mention their breathtaking incompetence and deceit. Sounding a little like home now, doesn't it. And so the pendulum goes...
...oh, and as far as business knowing what Trump is about, well, that's not saying a whole lot about American business now, is it, in light of the FACTS. There's an axiom that never escapes one, especially when they're not slick enough to cover it....
Once a fraud, always a fraud.
3
Trump's tax cuts will devastate the lives of a great many Americans in the future. We will pay dearly for him starving the treasury in order to personally profit from them, and ingratiating himself with millionaires and billionaires. Have no fear, though, for Trump's gift to companies and very wealthy Americans will keep on giving to them
17
The U.S. economy is all froth and bubble. It’s as glitzy as Trump’s towers. All glitz and no substance. Trump thinks that the stock market is a reflection of the economy itself. It is not! The stock market just tells us that the rich have money to invest in it; and often, it is not even investment, but speculation. A crash could come in an instant. We’ve been here before. So many times!
When judging the success of an economy, one has to look at the fundamentals. What about spending on infrastructure? How are the poor measuring up? What kind of jobs do people have? And how much security do those jobs offer? Are these jobs solid jobs, with security and pensions, or are they jobs in the gig economy? How many people cannot afford healthcare? How many millions of people are uninsured? How many people are there who cannot meet the next unexpected bill?
We mustn’t judge the success of an economy by how many yachts the 1% have; but by the quality of life of the rest. How much debt are people in? How much have they got in the bank? Can they meet their financial commitments? Can they afford to pay their doctor a visit, or the dentist?
Trump’s economy is a reflection of who Trump is: a man without substance, a man who loves the glitter of gold.
47
@Mark Alexander So well said, Bravo Thank You!
3
@Don Siracusa Thank you so much!
Hopefully, our stock market will continue its exponential rise and we'll be able to pay down our national debt with stock options. The Fed needs to continue expanding the money supply.
1
This would be good news if economic growth would result in lower deficits and higher wages for employees. Otherwise the measure is reflective of creating bigger financial problems for future generations and bigger social conflict in the short to medium term due to further increasing income inequality. Unfortunately the US situation seems more reflective of the second as the first. Novenvy from this European where GDP growth is lower but budget deficits are decreasing (or gone!) and wages are finally going up as well.
14
In the privacy of the voting booth, people ask "am I better off than I was for years ago?" With nearly 60% of voters 'Independent', and 20% Republican, Democrats are facing a very difficult task. Things ARE better today, despite the head-in-sand comments of NYT readers. Unless there is evidence of collusion with Russia, Trump will easily be reelected. And we haven't even talked about the potential for N. Korea de-nuclearization, better trade with the EU, Mexico and Canada and hopefully China, isolating Iran, Europeans payint their share of NATO's budget, and more.
7
@Pragmatist in CT - Actually most Americans aren't. The tiny trickle of extra income from the tax cut has already gone for higher gas prices for most of us.
6
OMG. You’re right. America is totally great again. Mission accomplished. How can all the people with college educations who live in the cities that actually drive the economic bus not see it?
1
It's nice the GDP is up. It's nice the 1% will benefit. For the rest of us stiffs, it's the same. Higher real estate taxes, higher health care costs, higher utility bills, higher everything, except what I see in my paycheck.
39
I see Trump is claiming credit for a surge in the economy.
I wonder if he will also take the blame for the nearly $1 trillion per year budget deficit, which truly risks bankrupting the US.
Except for military spending, the only parts of US spending that are large enough to help this size of deficit are Social Security and Mediare. I know that Trump and the Republican Congress will try to blame "entitlements", but how can Social Security and Medicare be blamed when folks that have worked for decades have paid into these programs everything they have been asked by the government to pay in? I do not believe that retired folks can afford normal living with cuts to Social Security and Medicare. So rather than claim victory, I think Trump has some explaining to do, about the cliff we are heading towards.
41
Despite Trump being at the helm and doing all he can to undo the gains of the Obama era recovery if the US economic growth retains its momentum the credit should go to the innovative potential of the Americans and the working class who are striving hard to stay afloat even amid the chaos and confusion caused by the policy inertia under the Trump administration. It is an unearned credit that Trump is claiming for the economy's performance.
20
@Prof. Jai Prakash Sharma
If you saw Trumps speech in the Mid West at USS he gave credit to the innovation of Americans, Trump gave credit to the American working class for working hard to make great products. If you strive you can stay afloat and prosper. Trump deserves credit it for his pro business policies, the results are the best economy in the world.
1
@Prof. Jai Prakash Sharma I believe it would do Trump haters well to drop the mantra of "chaos and confusion".
Kinda fits the left as much as anyone at this point.
Trump and his Congressional cult are following the GOP playbook: pump up the economy by running huge deficits and let the future worry about it.
Loosening environmental regulation works the same way -- of course if businesses don't have to worry about those pesky limits and restrictions they will make money in the short term, but at a long-term price.
They haven't fixed anything. Barack Obama fixed the economy after it crashed in 2008. This is just a bubble created artificially with deficit spending.
All the better for the Rs, I suppose, if they can blame a Democratic president when he or she has to clean up the mess.
34
@Bumpercar
Just like they blamed Obama when he had to clean up the Great Recession using deficit spending. But he did so at a time when the deficit spending was critically necessary, not like now!
14
Happens repeatedly. Americans are saps. Like Charlie Brown always having faith that Lucy will spot the football exactly as planned. Until it’s pulled away at the last minute. Again and again and again. We are not a collectively wise nation.
3
I cite a few reasons for me to believe the four percent uptick in G.D.P. will be short lived;
The tax cuts appear to me as a sinister attempt to buy voters. The tariffs additionally are probably intended to tax consumers on goods, most of which are imported. It was a cynical view of everyone's intelligence in that a small tax cut for the middle class will be dwarfed by the increased costs of consumer goods as a result of tariffs. The tax cuts are merely a payoff to the middle class and and the wealthy, who as indicated, are mostly hording money or passing it on to shareholders.
A large part of the G.D.P. increase is attributable to foreign nations hording American goods. It's only a short sprint of spending that will quickly subside either by trade wars and additional tariffs, or merely because they will be overstocked and curtail spending for a time. All these factors combined probably add up to a percent growth, soon to disappear leaving us with the regular growth of about three percent.
A barrel of crude oil cost 27 dollars at the outset of the Trump campaign and is now hovering around 70 dollars. Oil always goes up under the latest Republicans control of government. I still contend the peak price of 147 dollars in July 2008 brought on the great recession owing to the fact that oil is everything in our economy.
Next, Republicans may attack government spending to decrease the deficit thereby limiting economic consumer spending.
Four percent is short term only.
17
"Consumers led the way, shrugging off higher gasoline prices and sluggish wage growth to step up their spending on everything from cars to clothes to restaurant meals."
So consumer confidence is up, although there's no rational reason to justify this uptick.
In that case, how to explain that people are now buying more stuff than for instance during Obama's last year?
It's actually quite simple: under Obama, the economy was not only growing but contrary to today, growth had a very stable foundation. Republicans and their media, however, constantly told half of the country how terrible bad the economy was, and they believed it. So they didn't want to spend money.
Now, however - and for the first time in eight years - BOTH parties tell their voters that the economy is growing. So all of a sudden, much more people start to believe it, and decide to spend more money.
If Republicans would have been patriots, they would have been sending this message for eight years already. In that case, Americans who were laid off during Bush's 2008 Great Recession would have gotten a job much faster again. Instead, they decided to lie and cheat, knowing that that may be the easiest way to get access to power ... . And they were right.
Wages didn't increase though. So sooner or later, spending more all while keeping low wages will have to end. And what will the GOP do then? Triple the deficit, instead of doubling it ... ?
What a mess...
17
Recessions and depressions occur when Republican presidents hold office. And so it shall be again, because they, their administrations, and their congressional allies sow the seeds which enable the economy to crash.
Wise investors have already begun converting equities into cash equivalents. With Donald Trump as president, who doesn't compare favorably to Herbert Hoover or George W. Bush, it's never too early to mimic the wise investors.
14
Newsflash Mr Trump.
Considering the following facts:
- Maternal and infant mortality rates are higher in the US than in any other developed country;
- access to higher education costs more than in any other first world country with no indexed repayment plan for graduates;
- though the US is 5% of the world's population, it has 25% of the world's prison population;
- US health care costs are a higher percentage of your GDP than the health care costs of other developed countries which all have universal health care;
- US median wealth has not improved in 40 years and has in fact dropped;
- American children are nine times more likely to die from gun shots than any other country in the developed world,
what's to envy??
56
@Cass Phoenix
That is just the tip of the iceberg. Look how this information presented this way has brought the defenders out of the woodwork.
How much of the GDP will end up swirling around the Pacific Ocean?
How much is burned into oblivion?
How important is this blip compared to the extinction of a single species?
How much is dedicated to preventing random violence?
How much went directly into Trump's pocket? For what purpose?
How much was wasted instead of being distributed and used, by anyone?
It's not just Trump, but it is assuredly worse with him than almost anyone else would be.
5
@Cass Phoenix If what you claim is true, then the Leftists are actively harming people by encouraging them to migrate to this "terrible" country.
2
What nonsense. The growth our economy is experiencing is all about Obama. The tax cuts that corporate America got January 1, 2018 resulted primarily in stock buy-backs, with some dividends and one-time pay bonuses. (And the deficit is headed back up to $1 trillion, thanks to those tax cuts.) Approximately 77% of the tax cuts went to wealthy Americans. They already had money, so their spending is probably flat. The 23% that went to the middle class was spread out across so many people that no one noticed. Remember Paul Ryan bragging on Twitter about a woman's paycheck going up $1.50? He later deleted that tweet.
And the DJIA is down this year.
The dropped regulations that Trump likes to cheer about will take longer to bear fruit, if they bear fruit. It would be more accurate to say that the economy is still growing, in spite of Trump and his never-ending chaos.
25
All this hoopla and the economy is as good as it was in 2014, during Obama's Presidency. And Obama didn't have to execute tax cuts, blast war rhetoric, insult our trade partners, impose tariffs, destroy the environment, or subjugate himself to Putin. And it certainly didn't result in Hillary Clinton's victory in an election two years later. Another empty victory, Mr. Trump.
33
The Obama economy has sustained trump's mistakes. The only thing trump has done that has cooked the economy is the tax cuts for the rich that have driven up the deficit by a trillion $$. We will all pay for that. His so-called tariffs will also do real damage. Nothing good can come from economy by tweet.
17
That’s cause there’s enough scared gullible people in America to be goaded into misinterpreting that 10 years of sustained recovery manufacturing and banking bailouts low interest rate made for today’s success chiefly because “he” was black. These fine folks would rather go broke(r) if one “like them” steers America into the next recession as long as it comes with realty tv drama. The yeehaw tax cut and increased government military spending act like a trillion dollar line of cocaine (or if you want more neutral substance language, say a swimming pool of coffee), moves tax payments revenues away from companies and onto individuals. Certain individuals that is. In America all tax payers are equal but some are more equal than others. Read George Orwell.
1
It's the old Republican trickle down economics scam. The stats are good at the moment, so never mind the heft to the national debt resulting from the tax cuts, or the gutting of health care and consumer protection regulations.
27
In Medicine tests to diagnose possibilities of heart attack, cancer are heeded to, but the economic reports predicting future catastrophes are ignored when voting.
13
As we know the economy was on a steady upward climb. Then enter massive tax cuts (mostly for the rich) and a massive increase in Federal spending (not much for infrastructure).
These are tools that we will need for the next recession. Our President was asleep in economics class.
18
Elsewhere, Axios reported jump attributed to stockpiling and hurrying shipments before tariffs, e.g.,
WSJ: "Trade played a large role in the second quarter’s bumper growth. Net exports added 1.06 percentage point to the quarter’s 4.1% GDP growth rate, as exports rose strongly."
Chief Economist, Pantheon Macroeconomics: "Soybean exports final week of June were up 201% y/y. Week of July 19, just 13%."
https://www.axios.com/us-economic-growth-still-booming-fdc3d178-0795-4d8...
5
Actually this is true, the rush shipments, but it really wasn't enough to impact the GDP numbers.
1
Yeah, apparently they only amped up the GDP ESTIMATE for the quarter by 25%.
You get a 25% raise lately?
9
All Trump needs is 10 more quarters of 4.1% growth, after that he blame the collapse on Obama, who in fact paved the way for the stability we now enjoy. Ah, politics.
16
4.1% not happening. It’s the readers option to go with it but more sound is to adjust his her investment and money management style. If you’re in the 15 % who can understand that Economy is cyclical you know we’re in the longest recovery growth period on record. Since 2010. That means we’re delaying the obvious. Best advice is to the fine men and women in mining and manufacturing and middle America, you don’t buy stuff, guns, RVs etc., you shop for a house/home that’s 25 % below what you think you deserve, you pay down your mortgages and credit cards with that 25% newfound money we apparently just all received and have cash for when the golden shower stops.
3
And of course, when our economic house of cards built on massive debt and ever increasing wealth inequality and overvalued stocks and illiquid bonds comes tumbling down, Trump, magnanimous guy that he is, will be the first to step forward to take the blame. Not.
19
Yes, but where is the victory laps for environmental protections and natural resource conservation?
Sorry - I forgot. That stuff's for liberals only. Back to farming subsidies, so we can rock the Roundup and tear up those national monuments! Let's do away with emissions standards too, just so we can get a few more % on that GDP.
And in 50 years there won't be anything left.
23
Surely this is fake news? Wait...or are we picking and choosing which is fake and which is real?
3
The Left needs to wake up and smell the coffee before 2020. Thinking its a winning stratergy to daily remind us about Trump's oafish ways is not going to be enough to replace Trump in 2020.There may be a blue wave in 2018 to take the house but if the econmy is smoking in 2020 The Left is going to run into a Red Wall. Remember it is The Economy Stupid!
11
@Steven McCain The 2014 Obama era economic growth spurt which is the SAME as 2018 did not result in a win for Democrats in 2016. So, no.
6
The economy was effectively put on crack or crystal meth. Fed is trying to dissuade America by raising rates. Watch, the twitching has started.
3
@Steven McCain The economy has been smoking for a good while now. Trump or no Trump, the economy is due to hit a “wall” before much longer. Count me as one who thinks Trump is indeed hastening the construction of that “economic wall” with his trade war against the world. I’m a retired autoworker and our industry is beginning to report woes that Wall Street takes notice of, and that is apart from the obvious problems with steel which translates into higher prices and lower sales in our industry.
Be a Trump cheerleader if you want... and go enjoy a Coke. A more expensive Coke, btw...
2
Voting TRUMP 2020.
8
@Dan
Voting ANY DEMOCRAT 2020.
1
@Dan Why?
1
Oh, gawd! Another four years.........!
1
Of course. What do you expect when you continually cry WOLF?
1
As usual, the Republican Corporate stooge taking credit for the economic groundwork laid by his Democratic predecessor... Then destroying the economy with outlandish tax breaks for billionaires, and aiming to blame the finacial disaster on the subsequent Democrat president and the poor...
We have seen this before...
And FOX Nooz advocates (bigots) fall for it every time... "The Other" (brown people) are the problem - not me.
Let's end this cycle of idiocy in November...
Vote These Traitors Out!
20
Sure! Why not bite the hand that feeds you? It might make you feel good but even enlightened adults tell their children the folly of doing that!
2
What if the NYT decided not to mention Trump for a week.
Or, short of that, what if no reader clicked on a Trump headline for a week.
Would things get better, or worse..?
I'm going to try to do my part, starting now. Unless Mueller checks in.
11
Really NYT? All these economists poo-pooed the tariff stuff as well. I can tell you my 401k looks tons better now than 4-5 years ago.
7
@Whsbuss Thank the Obama Recover, and yes, give credit to T45 for not derailing it!
2
@Whsbuss I would hope so, given that it has had 4 or 5 years to grow... kind of obvious when you think about it. And remember, 401s are just a gambler’s Breton the Big Casino.
1
Thanks for standing up to the mighty NYT. There are few of any more with any sanity!
1
Trump claims credit for something he pretends is special, counting on the fact that most American voters will be unaware that the GDP growth rate also exceeded 4% for four quarters during the Obama administration. Yes, many aspects of the economy are going very well. But what we're seeing right now is a continuation of the steady, almost straight line growth for the 6 years before Trump took office. What he deserves credit for in not screwing it up yet.
9
Well, when you cut regulations and give tax breaks to people, the economy WILL go up....but, then, you have to pay the piper, so this unfortunately, will not last. But, the next quarter is just about a week before the November elections, so it will still not affect the elections. If Trump and his lemming Republicans are smart, they will talk this up as much as possible. But...big mouth, Trump, will do something to screw it up for them--ha ha!!
11
Always talking about Trump screwing things up . . . but things only get better! Oh when will they ever learn?
So trump declares a phony trade war gets a 1.5% boost to gdp
As people scramble to export before retaliatory tariffs take effect
And declares victory!
13
MAGA. Walk away, average Dems.
1
Polluting industries are unleashed and they are very happy about this.
9
NYT article says growth unlikely to recur.
Ok - let's see next quarter.
2
@Peter
Are you referring to growth in GDP or growth in deficit?
1
Since Trump is such a brilliant man and upcomoming overseer of the world, he should develop his own :Unnoble Prize
5
Everyone knows the GDP numbers are rigged. Bigly. That I can tell you. Sad.
6
Yes, and the sky is also falling Chicken Little. Haven’t you felt it recently?
2
I've no idea how to explain to Trumpists why it's stupid to run an economy on hot, that about a percent of that big, big number is due to overseas buyers grabbing soybeans while the grabbing's good before they find other suppliers, what the long-term investment interest rates mean, or even that Trump's averages so far are pretty much what Obama's were for 2012-2016.
The ranting's too loud, the ALL CAPS too tall.
And after all, these are the guys who forgot about debt and deficit five minutes after the black guy left the White House, not to mention, oh, corporate welfare, handing money to banks, what Vlad the Putin is, stuff like that.
All's I can say, kids, is you better hope you don't get what you say you want. We ran the ol' Titanic into the berg once already this century pretty much this same way, we already had us a really, really stupid and costly war that Trump at first supported (by the way, you think Isis is gone? Hilarious and sad), and I think you're ginna be unhappy when Medicaid gets cut and granny gets turfed out of that nice home, not to mentin how you're gonna feel about seeing cancer rates spike in your home town because a chunk of your "prosperity," is built on neglect.
17
It's not news that "Trump Claims Credit," as the online headline proclaims. Trump ALWAYS claims credit. Up your game, NYT. Report news, rather than hanging breathlessly on Trump's tweets, rallies, ad nauseum. . .
25
Amen JM. This is just not news at all. Facts NYT. Please.
The threat of trade war forced foreign customers to speed up their orders to US companies before everything becomes too expensive, and Trump's deregulations have made it possible to again do damage to the environment by drastically increasing drilling for oil and digging for coal! Damaging the environment have always been "good" for the economy because future generations will have to pay for the consequences!
6
Does this mean everybody gets a 4.1% raise in their paychecks?
11
The least important part of a surging economy is Trump--you could be doing so much better without him...
17
Something is wrong here: as soon as the GDP figures "hit a high note" and the stock market tanks. What do the big investors who drive the market know that the Times isn't telling us about?
5
When it's up he takes credit, when it slips down he blames Obama/the EU/China/anybody-not-named-Trump. We'll see how long this spike lasts ... and as sure as night follows day, he's going to blame someone else when it cycles the other way.
15
If you compare to a panel of economies designed to track US performance, there is no "Trump effect" whatsoever. Worth looking at....
https://voxeu.org/article/stable-genius-estimating-trump-effect-us-economy
2
Après nous, le déluge!
Don't forget to bring a towel.
9
A towel is the most massively important thing a traveler can have.
A toupee, not so much.
Will the winning ever stop? Mmm... yes if the socialist Democrats get power.
The so called economists who are preaching doom and gloom are probably the same ones who did not see the 2008 recession coming. Or any other one for that matter. They use crystal balls. I flip a coin. Same difference.
2
Well he hasn't msnaged to destroy the place
Yet. But he has been trying.
4
I can’t get too excited about these numbers when they include the defensive buying of soy beans ahead of a trade war. And the further we get into this mess, the more likely it is to hurt American workers (for no good reason). People collecting unemployment (if they’re lucky) aren’t big spenders.
So this 4.1% number means nothing to me. As for Trump’s chest pounding, he’s an idiot so I simply ignore him (or assume he’s lying yet again and the opposite of what he says will happen).
This country desperately needs a return to the truth and a regard for facts, in just about every aspect of our lives. And we need this to happen soon, before the truth becomes what anyone says it is. Sad.
8
A few quick points: the economy is doing fine, now, but is it sustainable and will there be a rebound? Economics is cyclical.
Moreover, democracy means more to me than full employment and an extra night out. Finally, the main difference between Trump and Hitler is that Hitler was a Keynesian, and Hitler was smoother with words
Will the economy live long and prosper under Trump- and who will he blame when it tanks?
14
By Trump's own admission, his ill-advised trade war is already going to cost us $12 billion. But seeing as how that money comes from us the taxpayers to allay fears of Trump's voters in the farmbelt, I'm sure our president sees that as a smart use of "other people's money." If you thought this country had hit bottom with Trump's presidency, hold on tight. We're looking into a bottomless pit!
15
Rome (California) burns while Nero (Trump/Republicans) fiddle.
10
Let's look at the facts which should make anyone weary of any data emanating from this administration. In the first four months of Trump's reign, key governmental departments, including Commerce, were ordered to stand down when it came to releasing data to the public. The bureaucrats responsible for compiling the facts were ordered to hand over any data to the powers that be for scrutiny before being released. That's why today's showcase announcement and the reality on the ground don't jive. Regardless of your political stripes, it is hard not to be suspicious of any data Trump's regime approves for official release to the public.
12
So Trump declares a phony trade war, gets a one-time 1.5% boost to GDP as people scramble to export before retaliatory tariffs take effect, and declares victory.
Real GDP growth was about 2.6% excluding the faux trade war. Why? Ordinarily net exports are a 0.5% reduction to real GDP growth, but this time was a 1.1% positive, a 1.5% swing with rounding. So 4.1% - 1.5% = 2.6%.
One would expect that Trump adding $13.7 trillion to the debt over 10 years vs. the $9.4 trillion he inherited from Obama would boost GDP a bit. Yes, that's a 50% increase in the debt trajectory.
Of course when the economy is booming you should be reducing debt, which is what Europe is doing; most European countries saw their debt to GDP fall.
Job creation was faster in Obama's last 17 months than during Trump's first 17 months. Real wage growth has been falling towards zero as gas prices / inflation rise. And of course 3-4 million have lost health insurance, on the way to 7 million vs. the Obama baseline, thanks to Trump's ACA sabotage.
We would be better off if Trump had just let the Obama Boom continue. Trump's actions have made the debt, healthcare, inflation, and interest rates less favorable than they otherwise would have been.
23
Does nobody even look at the graph? Sure, this rate of change is high, but not even as high as Obama's was for 2 quarters in 2014, well in to his administration, with nobody's policies to thank except for his.
Which policies, exactly, PUT us into the Great Recession? Oh, yeah, best not ask, unless you want reality to be considered.
11
What's scary with this economy running very hot with very low unemployment is that Trump has a trillion dollar deficit. What happens when the economy eventually falters and the deficit skyrockets?
Well, the GOP will look to cut back social benefits to cure the deficit. Which they created with the tax cuts.
13
Stimulating the economy with government deficits when we are at full utilization is inefficient. Stimulating is efficient only during recessions when obvious capacity under-utilization makes the effect of spending more productive. The stupidest thing to do with the stimulus at any time is to direct it to the rich and companies. Then they buy back their stock (making stock investors rich, about half of which are foreigners) and also invest the money overseas. That was predicted and it is exactly what happened. Instead, wait for a recession and then give the stimulus via a cut in the lowest tax rate, benefiting every US consumer, who spends practically all their money in the US.
4
This is fake growth. El Trumpo started the trade war because he knew once he convinced people he would do it orders for soybeans and other products would skyrocket so the buyers could get stocked up before the prices went up.
He doesn't care what damage he is dong the economy short or long term he only cares that he cane create a fact which he can use with his con man carnival barker skills to convince the low education folks who support him that he has made the economy do better.
5
But wait......didn't Trump just tell us not to pay attention to the fake news because that isn't what's really happening?
16
You missed the real story. The "economy" grew, and real wages fell again. Time to re-make the economic system so that it serves "regular" human beings, not their grandiose arrogant overlords.
14
I think burning down democracy is going to have an effect on the economy.
14
one more vote for the Republican party, then?
1
A high note? You bet, if we incurred a trillion dollar deficit and didn't get at least a blip....
We hit an unsustainable high brought about mainly by business moving their orders up so as to avoid the tariffs.
Meanwhile net foreign investment in the US has fallen off the cliff we are now considered an unreliable unfriendly country.
This is the beginning of the Trump Slump. It has already hit higher education, just wait until it hits your industry.
Why hasn't the treasonous traitor been impeached yet?
15
@SW
Right on! Plus income inequality has increased! And states where many Trump supporters can be found, did not garner them better wages!
12
Global economy is a lawless dog eats dog world, of global competitions. Laws although written are not enforced against heavyweight - China violated the WTO regulations for decades sans penalties.
President Obama, cerebral and cool, and a constitutional lawyer by profession never understood this.
Trump, brought up in the very dirty business of NYC real estate, does.
He has PLENTY of faults,but his bark got the US economy going.
4
@Gerhard
Really? All his struggling supporters are exactly where they were re wages... and our ghastly income inequality has increased.
20
It might be good for you to read Adam Smith at some point, Gerhard. Of course start with finding out who he was.
1
Trump if anything has just spread the gap between rich and poor. Bravo Mr. Trump. You’re not improving anything.
11
Trump claims credit for anything that makes him look good.
5
But will he take credit for worsening maternal mortality rates or declining outcomes in science and math?
4
I look forward to Trump also taking credit for the inevitable crash in due course.
15
Bottom line.....
What will happen when the bill for his "tax breaks" comes due. Then the full results of his economic policies will also come due.
8
The numbers have been inflated by soyabean exports to countries trying to beat the tariffs. They are not buying more soyabean than before. Soon the soyabean demand will get weak and the numbers will drop. They are bogus.
4
Just because it may not last does not mean we should not celebrate it. Some economists see 2018 at a stable 2.8/3.0%. I hope it works!
5
It would be far more useful, and morally defensible, to replace the wealthy with robots, than replace the workers with them. Eliminate the autocratic corporate job-killers.
Peace, love and prosperity for the raggity-tag masses.
4
“eat the rich” -graffiti seen in Madison, Wi circa 1970
3
All is not so rosy:
"U.S. President Donald Trump’s hostility to globalization is ruining the United States’ attractiveness as a place to do business. Sometimes, after all, it takes just one bad landlord to destroy a whole neighborhood’s desirability. This year, net inward investment into the United States by multinational corporations—both foreign and American—has fallen almost to zero, an early indicator of the damage being done by the Trump administration’s trade conflicts and its arbitrary bullying of companies and governments. This shift of corporate investment away from the United States will decrease long-term U.S. income growth, reduce the number of well-paid jobs available, and reinforce the ongoing shift of global commerce away from United States. That shift will subject the entire world economy to greater instability. "
That quote is from the introduction to "How Trump is Repelling Foreign Investment," by Alan Posen, from the 23 July issue of "Foreign Affairs": https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2018-07-23/how-tru... .
10
These economic measurements are meaningless. Abstract, dated ideas. The real economy—except for the 1% and the handful of corporate execs reaping profits—is shrinking, as are the prospects of the sad working folks who voted for Trump.
8
My mutual fund investments in USA have lost value since the end of March. The prospectus' for the funds claim that the future market is uncertain. How can anyone claim that the economy is growing when investors are losing?
10
At a time like this, the Federal Budget should at least be balanced.
Instead, it is a 1 trillion Dollar deficit.
It isn’t hard to figure out what is going on, if you just look.
12
It's still the economy that tRump was fortunate enough to inherit from President Obama.
7
The article clearly shows the opposite.
Soy farmers are having booming business as foreign buyers stock up on American produce.
Has nothing to do with Obama.
Factories purchasing equipment, which they can now afford due to tax cuts has nothing to do with Obama.
Sometimes it is good to give credit where it is due. This is trully is a 'Trump Bump'.
3
...Has everything to do with them buying before tariffs are imposed. So, then when things start to slow, the farmer will be hit doubly hard because not only will the tariffs be in place, but the buyers' inventories will already be stocked with all of this "growth."
7
nothing moves that fast, especially not the economy-trump is definitely enjoying an obama bump, although the bump is not so significant for most. For instance, people in my blue collar/technical profession (nursing) are in high demand and soon to be in even higher demand, as a critical shortage of new nurses looms on the horizon (boomer nurses are all retiring but aren’t being replaced fast enough to meet demand). Despite the “law” of supply and demand, nurses don’t make as much as they did in 1970 in terms of buying power. In fact, a two nurse household like mine (my wife is also
an RN) working at a high quality university hospital and being “well payed” compared to other RNs at small hospitals, clinics and long term care facilities aren’t doing so well, even with fairly decent health insurance (compared to most people). If one is unwilling to be in debt beyond a mortgage and a couple car payments, one must be pretty frugal...no second vacation home, no motor boat, no camper/RV, no European vacations, no expensive food and definitely no putting ones’ kids through college without the kids being saddled with quite a bit of debt. Everything is more expensive but real wages have not kept pace. I’m astounded that there are people with kids in urban areas who make less than 30k total income. They must be living in Mac &cheese or in debt to their eyebrows...and yet trump/ NYTs think it’s a booming economy....and Maybe it is...for the top 0.1% of earners.
8
Its undeniable. The economy is experiencing a Trump bump. The stock market is the great predictor of growth. As soon as Trump was elected the stock market shot up in anticipation of a better economy. The debate is over. Cutting taxes and regulations for businesses works. Why vote for Democrats in November? What do they offer as far as economic policies go? They complain and want to repeal the tax cuts, which will kill jobs. Vote in November and make your voices heard.
6
@johnny
The tax cuts which was a tax increase on you went straight into the pockets of the billionaires who did not need them and would not need them if we took 99% of what they make no deductions.
They gave away 1.5 Trillion dollars on your credit card johnny boy.
There are no more jobs and there is no increase in wages until we get to where they should be for everyone if the republicans weren't artificially keeping them down for the last 40 years.
10
@johnny
Great. Most real Americans have no skin in the carnival game of the stock market.
Look forward to revisiting this with you when the economy turns south. I suspect you and trump will be blaming the Democrats/Obama/Hillary/the emails/fake news.
7
@johnny
The market shot up just on word of Don's dodgy election? So that means he did not do any work to achieve it. A Dem rescued the economy from an INHERITED calamity.
But there was no collusion. Mr Credibility himself said so
6
$1.5 trillion for one quarter at 4% growth. Consider me underwhelmed.
12
The economy is doing well, in spite of Donald Trump. But there are still many problems. Trump needs to set money aside for training as millions of people flounder in old-fashioned jobs like coal mining or newspaper work. Soon everyone will require high-tech skills.
6
@Peter ERIKSONMany problems like a trade war with China and the EU. It’s already starting to bite and Trump’s $12B bribe won’t do a thing.
7
@Douglas Lowenthal
That $12B isn't a bribe, most farms are owned by corporations it is just another republican hand out to their corporate masters. I would be surprised if there were as many as one thousand independent own their own land and pay for their own supplies farmers left in the whole country.
I just want to know if the farmers are going to have to submit to urine tests and give up their fancy smart phones now that Trumpkin put them in the dole
3
Growth has increased but at a huge long-term cost to the US deficit and to our ability to respond to the next recession.
11
Why is there a need for a trade war? Our nation can make virtually anything that it needs, so why buy from China? We can make our own steel, computers, cell phones, produce oil, gasoline, grow our own cotton, rice, corn, soy, fruits and vegetables. We make extremely high quality alcohol, milk, yogurt, butter, clothes, as well as shoes.... I don't disagree that trade may be necessary, but let's start using(and require companies that wish to do business in the US to manufacture and sell) our own product before we rely on those that undercut and steal from us.
2
@Dova
Any idea how appallingly polluting Apple products are in the manufacturing? That's one of the reasons they are made not near you.
4
Without cheap Chinese goods, the Walmart, Apple and Home Depo business model would go belly up ( among many other companies selling both low and high quality products made in China). We might be able to ween ourselves off that cheap Chinese stuff over time by one should consider the possibility that hard economic times are desirable to the extremely wealthy. Some call it “disaster capitalism” because the boom and bust cycle allows both massive profits for the wealthiest 0.1% but also allows the overthrow of democracies.
3
“Once again, we are the economic envy of the entire world,” Mr. Trump declared...
Why does he always have to make it about winners and losers?
9
@Ricardo
Because.. it is. France just announced 0.2 GDP for the second quarter. Same as Q1. We are better off so far this year.
1
@nomad127 Well, I have news for you: it’s not a race... this isn’t a competition. It’s not “us versus them”... unless you buy into Trump’s racist, win-or-lose rhetoric.
1
Some of us...and the other operative word...”for now”
3
People are so shortsighted and easily deceived.
12
“Best economy we’ve ever had in the history of the country”, said Trump today. One would think that such a manifest lie might dilute, to say the least, the import of the 2nd quarter growth number.
8
A ship takes long to turn. This is Obama's economy. Trump's will start in 2019.
17
@Edwin What an excellent observation. I like the turn of phrase. This is Obama's economy.
7
The economy is the only thing Trump doesn't blame on Obama, yet.
12
Out here in the Central Valley of California, freeways are in process of being expanded. It took years of planning to bring this major project together.
At the same time the homelessness and people living below the poverty level across the country are at record highs. The homeless are living in storm drains in Lancaster, CA and Bakersfield is full of homeless. Those poor souls.
Impress me Donald Trump and GOP, and put them all to work since you're the masters of job creation.
10
@sandcanyongal
You do realise that Central Valley's poverty is due to Democrats making California an expensive place to invest when it comes to sectors that rely on labor rather than technology right??
The GOP IS putting people to work in less epensive parts of the country, namely the Deep South.Car factories from Hyundai in Kentucky to Nissan in the Mississippi have been established.
That cannot happen in California(where Toyota shut its factory) or New York.
You should see Seattle where the homeless live on the medians between highways...
1
@Gerald
And yet despite the cheap labor, the South still has poverty and homeless populations.
Trump had nothing to do with these events other than rubber stamping a massive tax giveaway. Perhaps my employer will give me a raise (not) so that I can pay for my tax INCREASE.
Rest assured that when the economy runs into massive recession he will blame 1) Democrats, the 2) Obama, 3) Clinton. 4) immigrants.
17
@The 1%
You forgot the thriving CNN company who are apparently biased merely for reporting Trump's outrageous behaviour.
They reported Access Hollywood- so just by playing his words they are biased. You also forgot the "failing" NY Times. The latter is mentioned in Bob Dylan's first album from 1961. "Talkin' New York" Yet they are still here.
I suspect that the NY Times will still be going in another 60 years time; and that CNN will still be operating long past Trump's greatest presidency since Abe Lincoln.
3
Or the fed, if he has to...
1
this is why people don't have more money for retirement. they wouldn't buy as much as they could of an index fund that buys US stocks when Obama was in office and they wouldn't buy when Trump got elected. They continued to buy tech gadgets instead of investing in the companies that made them.
1
Trump says the US is the economic envy of the world, but surely he must realize a country is more than it’s economy. When the rest of the world looks at the United States now there is no envy, just sadness, confusion and worry. Perhaps having a strong economy is enough to bring your country back together, but it's your ideals other countries envied. Under Trump, your country seems to be another corporation he now owns, with no heart, and no soul. The world would like the old you back and you can bring along your booming economy, there will be no envy, just relief!
14
26000+ bombs dropped by the US in 2016...let that number linger in thinking for a few minutes; that is over 70 bombs every day of the year. were those bombs dropped delivered with heart and soul? https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/09/america-dropped-26...
1
@todd To drive ISIS out of cities bombs leveled each city involved. Not only is ISIS out of those cities but so is every other citizen and they have nowhere to go as no one can take in anymore refugees.
Isn't it interesting that Saudi Arabia has millions of air conditioned tents sitting empty for pilgrims coming for the next hajj but they have not taken in one refugee?
Have you been counting bombs this year?
Is Trump going to pay a price for promising 4% growth next quarter!if we don’t get it?
5
A World Without America?
America's economy is being caught by the European Union
and China, and the economy is being hit with trade wars and restrictions of the free market.
This cycle of ups and downs affects the way that policy is made, and the world looks to America for economic growth.
What if...
What if Trump succeeds in imposing white nationalism as America's dominant ideology, and all the policies are made to reflect this ideology, and America gradually looks inwards, and leaves the global community for other nations to occupy.
What type of world would it be?
A world without America?
God Almighty this is a frightening conjecture.
4
@PropagandandTreason
If America leaves the global community then there will be a paradigm shift - and who knows what kind of paradigm will take over from the last 70 years of the American paradigm of democracy and freedom?
The fear is that Russia and Putin is really pushing it hard, and will impose a new type of seeing and experiencing the world, with a new ideology of authoritarianism and social control - what type of a world would it be if Putin and the Kremlin becomes the dominant paradigm?
Global democracy is in danger of being diminished and destroyed, and this must never happen, as the free market that has many faults has created a world that is gradually growing and spreading a democratic value and principle.
Putin is manipulating Trump psychologically and emotional, which is a danger to the democratic free market economy.
"It's the economy stupid" said President Clinton,
but this only depends upon a working democracy and the freedom to develop ideas and markets - as human societies historically depends and develops with free trade.
5
@PropagandandTreason, don't forget, Trump is still a minority president.
4
@PropagandandTreason
a new ideology of authoritarianism and social control.
is an accurate description of what China is exporting, especially to Africa.
Russia may be authoritarian, but it is most certaintly not a nation with social controls on the scale that China has.
Russia has limited influence outside of Europe and the Middle East.We have seen China spread its tentacles across the entire planet and using them to advance its interest and mute opposition to how it (unethically) does things. China now uses Greece as a pawn in the EU, has African nations parroting its ideals, even as Chinese nationals treat Africans with contempt, has South American nations in an economic vice due to increased dependency on China to absorb Latin American Oil and Agricultural produce and is threatening all of its neighbors over the South China Sea.
The threat of Russia is limited to Ukraine(which in my opinion, it can have) and Syria(which was never America's friend in the first place).
Amazing what you can do when congressional Republicans forget their phony concern for deficits and dump billions of tax payer dollars into the economy. Obama's attempts to help stimulate the economy were always thwarted by a party that had no interest in the welfare of American workers but rather making Obama look like a failure. Obama did very well considering even his most reasonable efforts were met with cynical politically motivated opposition. Obama tried to help the American people without overturning regulations that protected the environment, worker's right's, and the health of our citizens. Responsible growth is far more important than this sugar rush that will inevitably lead to a rude crash.
22
Trump is right to claim credit for the great economy. His two predecessors, after, never managed to get America moving again. And it is so nice for so many Americans to have a president who loves his country unconditionally.
13
GDP rose to 4.1% under Obama as well. In fact, it rose to 5% in 2014. Read some real facts, not fake news on the state run Fox propaganda channel.
118
Either you are being sarcastic or you are gullible and delusional. The only thing Trump loves unconditionally is money and himself. The economy is following the upward trend that began under President Obama, not this fake psychologically ill narcissist.
22
@Rolf He seems to love Vladimir Putin unconditionally. His own country, not so much.
14
Mr. Stephens is right in his op-ed article that even critics of Trump should welcome good economic news for the country. However, one must also note that a single quarter of high growth is neither statistically exceptional nor unexpected due to the recent deep tax cut. The more important question is where we are in the business cycle today and are we ready when it turns? We are in the tenth year of growth and with many indices at all time high, it would be foolish to expect the "party," at least for some people, never ends. It is clear that the Fed is striving to return to "normal" so that when they need to act, they will have a hand to play.
3
Of course it's not an all time high. And while he's busy claiming credit (which no doubt he is entitled to do), average Americans are trying to figure out how they're going to stretch their stagnant earnings to pay ever-increasing expenses, farmers are wondering if they'll lose the farm, and more and more poor folks are finding that even working two jobs won't pay the rent on an apartment where wage disparity has driven up the price of rental property. But, yes, he gets the credit. Just hope that everyone remembers that he gets the credit for all of it, no matter what happens.
4
@Susan Wait till the market crashes... all fingers will point at him.
3
The good economy for who? We just had a report in Oregon that hourly workers need to hold two to three jobs just to afford a basic one bedroom apartment. This news after a great growth spurt of apartment and condo building in the five county, northern valley area in Oregon and nearby southern Washington State. Yes, minimum wage went up for some but not for all. Poverty and homelessness haunt our areas with attendant property crime and drug use.
I've found in life that it is great to build upon my predecessor's good work and to remember them for their efforts. I'm remembering 2007-2008 and the national worry that we could go into not just a U.S. depression but pull down part if not all of the world economy with us. The achievement of the Obama administration in getting us out of that hideous economic pit and setting up this time frame in our history for recovery is not forgotten. And since 2008, the economic has not gone backwards in any significant way. Let us hope that is the case now since one quarter does not make a four year term.
17
Sure...when you pour gasoline in the form of oversized tax cuts and every protective regulation on the books, there's going to be some surge in growth. But it will burn out, and then what? We will have a sky high debt, which USED to be important, we will have an agriculture economy living on a bailout and losing half their markets for the foreseeable future, integrated manufacturing dependent on imports will falter. I suspect many businesses rammed through sales and orders and quickly as possible this quarter to beat the tariff deadlines. Then what? Wages are still not rising enough to keep up with cost of living and especially health care and housing--two necessities for most people. Food prices will likely spike as well. I give this President NO CREDIT because I believe he created a bubble on top of what was a steady but sluggish improvement that took years to build and it will burst.
22
@Joseph PuentesVoting Republican means paying for tax cuts for the rich with cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Seems like an obvious choice for most Americans.
1
Psst...the tax cuts for the little people expire in a few years. The cuts for corporations and the wealthiest don't.
This should perhaps suggest something to you.
9
@Joseph Puentes tax cuts for the middle class expire in 2025. Regulatory changes are never forever. Nothing is forever, including this economy that was in motion before Trump took office.
1
If this growth is sustainable then kudos to the Trump administration. BUT somehow I personally have yet to experience the boom. For the last few years, I had to learn to compromise and to tighten the belt. And that has NOT changed. So no, I am not a believer yet.
And since Trump and his sycophants are NOT a truthful bunch, I honestly wonder if those numbers are even real. CAUSE I AM NOT FEELING IT...
So I am not rushing to the mall just yet. Trump has sold us the same bridge before....
14
The last 4 years have been great for me, and since Trumps inauguration even better. More job growth than under his 'free money for banks' predecessor. I dispise Trump's attitude towards women, and his decision to get into cahoots with Putin. But...he is obviously keeping our allies and foes on their toes, something a president has needed to do for ages. Now, if only we could get him to speak with a more civilized tongue, he might be worth something.
2
Fake news. Right?
Oh. I forgot. Silly me.
The BLS and commerce can be trusted under 2 scenarios:
1. The economic news is good
2. Trump is the president.
Both conditions are true. Not fake.
3
As usual, the Times insists on putting a negative spin on something very positive.
13
@Mike DeMaio. That's right, Mike, I forgot. I can trust this president and his administration.
2
There are no criteria that I've seen that put a positive spin on Trump or his crime family. Congratulations, however, to Obama for the continuing growth of his amazing recovery from the Shrub Disaster... makes Trump look sort of good (not disgusting, at least, for the moment) even in Barak's shadow.
5
@Mike DeMaio.
Yup. Thanks, Obama!
3
Dems are at a 100 year low in nationwide political power. And unemployment is at all time lows, growth at 4.1% and the economy roaring.
What a coincidence.
13
@J.roaring - just the actual numbers last 2 quarters 2% - 4.1%@ (estimated) meh - how sustainable?
2
@J.
Obama holdover.
3
4.1 growth. Somebody did something to grow the economy. This is good and maybe Trump had some part of this? Maybe trickle down works? Maybe the rich spending more let's others share the wealth? Maybe rich people is a good thing? Maybe having desire to get rich is commendable?
Making letting fat cat Wall Street making money is good for people? Or let's attack the bankers and wealthy so we can all have less?
2
Read this article, all the positives that have taken place over the last year. I have to ask, why do democrats want to ruin it?? Because their policies aren’t part of this success story.
9
This is so weird. People are saying that Trump has no role in this good economy, and many even say this economy is Obama's. There's some truth to that, but ask yourself: if there were a Democrat in the White House now, would you be singing the praises of 4% growth, 4% unemployment, low inflation and a 25,000 Dow? You bet you would.
11
Maybe, if the Dems appeared to be using sound judgment and sane fiscal policy. Trumpkin seems to want his very own fiscal Wagnerian opera as he attempts to erase everything Obama ever did that was decent or useful ( you’ll notice trump has no problem with drone wars in Central Asia).
1
What a crock of dung. GDP growth would be great if it actually went to the middle class. But it does not. Republicans have made supply side economics the law of the land, which means no matter what GDP does, the middle class will still get poorer every year. Why? Because middle class income growth is not keeping up with inflation and the upper 0.1% has seen insane income growth while doing nothing to earn it. There was great GDP growth heading into the great depression too.
20
How much influence does the occupant of the White House have on the economy, anyway?
The standard answer among economists, at least when they aren’t being political hacks, is: not much.
Paul Krugman
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/05/opinion/paul-krugman-presidents-and-t...
6
@Gerhard not true. According to many political hacks, Obama’s influence was so strong, he’s still responsible for everything good.
3
Good is the wrong word. Obama is responsible for the crash of 2008 not being significantly worse and for the modest recovery afterwords. Well never get back to where we were.
1
We all know everyone was buying ahead of the Tariffs!! Please Mr. Mueller, save us from what we are headed into. We need to know the relationship between Trump, Kushner and Russia
7
Fascinating how how few comments there are from centrists. Are ALL societal's ills REALLY one party's (or the other's) fault? I get that Trump is awful and maybe all this is just a shot of adrenaline. However, I can't help but feel that we are all being hoodwinked by the party prosthetizers talking their own book. Aren't we all supposed to be smart enough not to appropriately cynical about both? Hard for me to listen to anyone so one sided about either party.
1
@Bill Johnson
False equivalence. Its not as if there are two tribes with equally valid stances. One side continues to follow a self admitted groper who lies continually and all the rest who just do not believe him. This stems from Don's outrageous behaviour. Its not like there are two camps both acting equally badly
1
"a result of a confluence of events unlikely to recur."
Trump haters and "progressives" - when will you learn. You poor lost souls. Allow me to remind you that the "economists" continuously predicting that Trump's economy will fail are the VERY same ones who predicted a devastating global recession, and an absolute market crash from which it would NEVER recover were Trump to win. Brought to you by the newspaper which predicted Hillary Clinton's chances of winning at 85-90 percent on election eve.
No hatred, bias, and wishful thinking here, though, right? It's the DEFINITION of FAKE NEWS, in my view.
GOOD GRIEF!
Donald Trump wins in a LANDSLIDE in 2020
13
I see that you don't know that Trump's average GDP numbers are about the same as those of Obama's second term, and that Trump's still behind Obama's two best quarters of 2012-2016.
I also see that you don't know that polls do not "predict;" they relate numbers, together with their margins of errors, and sometimes pollsters crunch those and other numbers to state probabilities. Which are also not predictions.
This, together with your oddish capitalizations, suggests looking elsewhere for facts, reason, explanation, discussion and analysis.
10
@Eyes Wide Open
Stockholm Syndrome
1
@Eyes Wide Open, Donald Trump is incompetent, immoral, deceitful, and criminally corrupt. Since election day in 2016, he has been rejected by 54-56% of the citizens. He the representative of the United States only in title.
Your eyes seem to be closed to this reality. You can't even see what's coming in November, let alone 2020.
3
Thank you President Trump. Making America Great Again.
10
@Brewster Millions for a sliver of the population but not the middle or lower economic classes. The 1% does it again. Let's see if this growth lasts. BTW, look at the non-Trump quarters on the graph. Gosh, growth without inflation was there too.
5
Yeah, almost as high as 2010, 2012, & 2014. And when you consider what we've got for a president it's a miracle we're not in the tank.
14
Don’t worry. The deficits and the idiot’s trade war will put a stop to that.
2
The US economy is sitting on a house of cards. Trump obviously is riding the wave of Obama's policies. Although what is now buoying the numbers is this: https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/mortgages-auto-loans-and...
5
Just like Regan. Just Like Bush. We've seen this all before. Republican gets into office. everything is GO! GO! GO! Spend! Spend! Spend! Consume! Consume! Consume! Tech Bubble! Tech Bubble! Tech Bubble! Housing Bubble! Housing Bubble! Housing Bubble! PARTY TIMES!!!
And then BUST! BUST! BUST!
Thats how Republicans do it. And we never learn. Remember the Tent Cities of barely 10 years ago people?
24
S'okay... a Democrat will follow to save the country... AGAIN! (...and again, and again, and again... ).
2
If you've been burned before, would you touch the fire again? History is a great teacher.
PoliticsThatWork Change in Unemployment Rate by Party of President- Since 1945
Each party has held the presidency for the same number of years since 1945. During those years, the unemployment rate has risen 11.8% under Republican presidents and has fallen 7.2% under Democratic presidents. Unemployment has fallen during the overwhelming majority of Democratic years since 1949. Unemployment rose steadily under Republicans up until 1982, then fell during the remaining Reagan years, and then rose again under both Bush Presidents.
PoliticsThatWork Dow Jones Performance by the Party of the President
During the most recent 15 years during which Republicans have held the presidency, the value of the Dow has increased by 42%. During the Democratic presidencies, it has increased by 609%- 14.5 times faster. The average growth in the value of the Dow under Democrats during this period has been 14.75% and under Republicans it has been 5.11%.
PoliticsThatWork Change in Disposable Income Since 1930 by the Party of the President
In the 44 years that we have had Democratic presidents since 1930, the real per-capita disposable income has increased 271%. During the 40 years during which we have had Republican presidents, it has increased 44%. On average, it has increased 3.1% (after adjusting for inflation) under Democratic presidents and 1% under Republican presidents.
14
Wow. The economy is certainly hitting a high note and hopefully will continue to a higher note and America will continue Trumping along on a stable economy.
All the fear mongering predictions about how the economy will sink, the stock market will crash, there will be a recession, unemployment will rise, people will die in the streets for lack of health insurance, there will be more race riots if Trump is elected have all turned out to be false alarms and partisan and biased predictions that failed to materialize.
Trump is entitled to take a bow for the current healthy state of the economy. He has certainly governed the country well with a whole lot of people looking over his shoulders and not distracted by what he calls the "witch hunt" and the extreme bias and spin showed by most of the new media.
Trump was going to be an experiment. A person who had never held elected office. A person whose private life before entering the white house was controversial. A businessman whose business practices were not always up to the highest standards. A person never afraid to speak or tweet his mind. A person never afraid to do the unexpected or unpredictable.
What matters most is that the experiment is yielding positive results for America and the world. All Americans seem to be doing okay. Except of course those who think that it is difficult to keep up with the billionaires Bezos, Gates, Buffet Soros . Think about it, these guys were doing fine even before Trump took office
15
@Girish Kotwa
Trump will take credit for the economy, but the reality is that the economy of today is simply a continuation of the curve that was started in 2009. Obama even had a higher 3rd quarter GDP in 2014.
14
@celedo President Obama presided over the weakest recovery from a recession in U.S. history. President Trump is getting the recovery up to the level that it should have achieved years ago.
1
Beyond the fact that that was somewhat more than a "recession," I recommend finding out, oh, how Republicans dragged their feet, and what a trend line is.
Time to exit the markets. Sell it all now or be prepared to take huge losses. This is all unraveling. It's going to get ugly.
13
@Matthew wishing wont make I true. It’s simply delusional. Remember when you all predicted Hilary would win by a landslide? Wishing won’t make it true.
@Matthew You sound like Krugman on election night, and you will be just as wrong as he was.
Re: Companies investments in the economy
Either the NYT is wrong, or LeMonde, France's leading (and left of center) newspaper
LeMonde , more factual than the NYT (more numbers = more facts) reported today
1. Growth has been driven by consumption, which grew at a rate of 4%, the highest level since the end of 2014. It is fueled by full employment. But also by the tax reform of Donald Trump. This resulted in lower taxes paid by Americans, which reduced their savings rate from 7.2% to 6.8%.
2. Companies, big winners of tax reform - and who had to repatriate their profits abroad ($ 300 billion in the first half, or 257 billion euros) - continue to invest at a pace 7.3%. This figure, even if it is down on the 11.5% of the first quarter, remains very good.
Note : Companies continue to invest at a pace 7.3%.
This strikingly different from Mr. Casselman, who write
"So far, however, there is scant evidence that companies broadly are reinvesting their tax savings"
I am looking forward to the NYT to explain the difference.
11
I wonder what President Trump would have done if he had taken the reins of the economy in January 2009?
2
@abigail49 If he followed republican ideology, we would have been in a 2nd great depression. Thats how we got the 1st great depression, southern conservatives who think they know economics... what a crock.
7
@abigail49 He would have let us go over the cliff. He would have built buildings that were dangerous to live in, and now he is getting his chance at destroying his (swamp-America). Vote.
4
@abigail49
He'd have implemented the greatest Worldwide Depression EVER! I mean, he's such a stable genius; like a smart person (with a 5th grade vocabulary, multiple bankruptcies, and 3200 lies since crossing his fingers while swearing to defend America against enemies)!
Maga is a Soviet spy.
2
Well, let me tell you how anyone can achieve the same thing by giving a simple analogy.
Well, to impress my neighbors I first spend all the cash I have and people think: "Hmmm this guy is doing pretty well". Then after all my cash is gone I use up all credit lines on all the credit cards I have and people wonder: "Gosh, how does he do so well? He must be a genuis!" The problem comes when all I could throw in the fire to produce these out of control flames is gone - and then well, only the fire remains which then might burn down my house.
What is going on behind the scenes is that the tax cut as well as deregulation and government institutionalized greed will be unsustainable. If we continue on the current path what will be left is a country in which some people might sit on heaps of cash in a society that has become dysfunctional, unfair and unjust, in an environment that is characterized polluted air, soil and water.
Money is the only language this government knows how to use and manipulate with. For the 'base' they know they only need to throw in some bizarre stunts & statements and for everyone else they just have to make sure the stock market goes up & up since people like money - they might grumble but basically will shuffle along.
Simply put: If you agree with Trump then open your wallet and spend as if there is no tomorrow, and well, if you disagree - keep your wallet tightly shut. Emancipate yourself from being a consumer to a responsible human being...
22
It's unsustainable only if the spendthrift democrats ever gain control again.
1
The “spendthrift” Democrats are not the party who just doubled the annual federal budget deficit. But Republicans only care about deficits when there is a Democratic President.
4
So, increased exports account for a quarter of the total GDP growth. Exports that increased in anticipation of the impact of Trump's tariffs.
That's a one-off phenomenon, so it's safe to correct the actual GDP growth from 4% to 3%.
Now, how much of the remainder of last quarter's GDP growth is due to the $1,000,000,000,000 Trump tax cut to the already wealthy? The Budget Office doesn't speak to this, nor does the Times analysis. Could that amount to another 1/4 of the reported GDP growth? However much it was, it was another one-off, because corporate taxes can't be lowered much further.
If it amounted to 1% of the reported GDP growth, the real annualized economic growth last quarter was about 2%, the same as that predicted by a wide swath of analysts. And, given the contribution of pre-tariff purchases to the last quarter, we can anticipate that the third quarter will show substantially less than 2% annualized growth.
I look forward to seeing those numbers at the end of October... a couple of weeks before the midterm elections! It won't change the minds of Trump's true believers, but it may energize a number of people who were waffling about voting.
By the way, please be sure you are registered to vote. And ask the same of your friends. Friends don't let friends not vote.
16
Well if you agree that running a projected FY2018 Deficit of $800 Billion and $965 Billion in FY2019 and agree with a Total Debt position that is approaching $21 Trillion then yes , Trump has done a remarkable job of Public Financing of the economic expansion with no plan to reduce the annual deficits. The biggest threat to our country is that the path to economic health that is sustainable without massive deficits annually is a really tough job for the Politico's . They have neither the courage or the motivation to put this nation back on a more reasonable path. That requries some tough decisions. For Starters, we should cut about $300Billioin from the Defense Budget in FY 2019; that would still leave funding at around $550Billion which is plenty. But Trump has lived at the Public Trough his entire business life and it's not his money he is spending. He will go down as the absolute worst President in US History with a possible Treason Label fixed to his picture.
23
@anthony President Obama took the U.S. National debt from $10 trillion to $20 trillion over 8 years, resulting in the weakest economic recovery from a recession in U.S. history. President Trump will be rated well above President Obama by future historians.
4
I'm not an expert but it looks like there was higher growth in 2014 when Barack Obama was President.
It's odd because I remember articles in 2014 complaining about the sluggish economy. And vignettes on CNN about angry America clamoring for growth.
If 5% is sluggish, what is 4% ?
16
@Marion Grace MerriweatherPresident Obama did not have 3% annual GDP growth in any of his 8 years as our President. The Conference Board Economic Outlook predicts 2018 GDP growth in excess of 3%
1
@lgh
Has Trump had 3% annual GDP growth ?
Again, I'm no expert, but I don't believe that he has.
.....
OK, I checked. Annual GDP growth was higher under Obama than it has ever been under Trump.
So what exactly is your point ?
So why can the 2 million hard working civil servants, the middle class not even get the 1.9 % COLA that the Senate has proposed? Why does TRump and the Republican Congress insist on not only a pay freeze but a cut in FERS retirement for Federal employees and retires! If the economy is really growing at 4.2% why can’t the rank and file employees get a raise.
In fact it is the Law! A Law signed by George H.W.Bush that Federal Employees are due mandatory increases to bring their pay inline with the Locality pay. It is based on comparing like positions with large employers. Federal employees are under paid at the higher grades in particular in the STEM Fields.
12
Feast before famine? If this is because everyone is spending their tax savings, and businesses here and in other countries are stockpiling goods for the next 6-12 months before the trade war tariffs set in what's left for the next quarter?
8
Why China’s economy can grow at 7% a year ? Tell me Why the US economy can’t sustainably grow at 4.1%? Are the Chinese smarter than us? Why can’t Americans prosper?
“Economists caution that the latest acceleration, while good news for American businesses and households in the short term, is unsustainable in the long term and could raise the risk that the recovery will flame out in the years ahead”
Who are theses economists? Which forecast are you talking about? So much abstract information. These type of articles should do the same as Wikipedia does: put the source of the information.
So much pessimism!
America believe in yourself again!
2
@Fernando
China's economy is not growing at 7%/yr; China has a central government in control of State spending; she can manipulate her economy at will. Factories have closed in outlying areas, the unemployed are flocking to urban areas where there are not enough jobs or housing for them. I have a friend teaching in China; it is not a rosy picture; the middle class are fleeing to L.A. and B.C. even after Xi froze their assets.
5
@Fernando - 4.1% of a much larger base GDP (US GDP is approximately 18.5 trillion per year vs Chinese GDP of 11.2 trillion) is still quite a healthy rate of growth. In absolute terms, the U.S. economy is growing by quite a bit, given that the norm for most developed economies would be about 2%. If you're asking why developing countries grow faster than developed ones, the answer is simple - in developing countries you get more bang for your buck in terms of productivity.
Think about it like this - China is still a developing country, which means that for each dollar of additional investment it makes things like IT, robots, tractors, or factory equipment, it can reap much more additional productivity than an equivalent dollar of investment in the US. If a Chinese farmer switches from using a cow to pull his plow to a tractor, the percentage change in his output will naturally be much greater than if a U.S. farmer upgrades from his old tractor to the latest John Deere.
In the US the average worker has something like half a million dollars worth of equipment supporting their productivity. In China that number is orders of magnitude lower.
In addition, it's a lot easier for developing nations to improve productivity by simply copying existing technologies processes, or practices that are proven to boost productivity as opposed to the situation in developed countries where completely new sources of productivity growth must be discovered.
3
@Chris the economist
I really appreciate your comments. But I strongly disagree that China is a developing nation.
Well, if you run a trillion-dollar-deficit and print money in record-breaking fashion like Saint Ronnie did in the early 80s, of course you will goose economic growth.
You don't have to be a brain surgeon to figure that one out.
Just wait until Trump figures out what $2 trillion deficits will do: What's that: how about skyrocketing inflation and booming real estate prices that will inflate Jared's building value and get him out of his onerous debt burden. All developers love inflation so we should all bank on rising inflation and prices - sell bonds - and hang on for a wild ride!
Like the one we're already on.
9
Can I expect to see my Social Security check increase? Can I expect to see my medical costs go down? Will food in the supermarket cost less? Will the minimum wage increase? Will the temperatures ever get back to normal?
No. No. No. No. No.
Great for the 1%. Me? Not so much.
39
Everyone who has a good-paying job today had better save, save, and save more for the rainy day. Not a good time to buy a new car or a bigger home or anything else that puts you in debt. When the boom turns to bust, it won't be CEOs who get canned. It will be middle managers and shift workers. And when you lose that company health insurance coverage, you'll need to pay the whole premium yourself and discover how expensive it really is.
19
Obama's calm stewardship for many years dragged the economy from the Brink. Unlike Obama,Mr Trump inherited a relatively healthy economy. With the tax cuts for the billionaires, Trump has now overheated the economy. Other than the brigand tax cut that has put the USA into a dangerous future deficit position, does anyone really think Donald did any workaday tasks to do anything for the economy? What... he dragged himself away from Fox and golf to actually do some work? Really? It would be uncharacteristic.
14
Bubbles pop, and Republicans are creating yet another bubble.
14
I am glad that the economy is doing well. I too clearly remember the dire straits we were in less than 10 years ago.
I anticipate that the economic numbers will remain excellent until after the November midterms so we've got at least a few good months left. Carpe diem!
5
Economist Jared Bernstein, former Biden advisor, says in W Post the strong GDP doesn't reach workers’ paychecks to raise living standards. No longer is growth connected to shared prosperity for citizens. On Msnbc he cited how unions have been deliberately weakened.
Per NPR—“50 years ago, 1/3 of workers were in unions. Today, it's one in 10.” And union norms raised the pay of non union employees.
Drastic change from past generations. Why has the US allowed such an exploitive political culture to develop in a democratic nation? Our eonomic growth is legally confiscated by the mega donors to our elections.
Our middle class security lags other capitalist democracies, where unions are more respected. Their economic growth can be shared by citizens whose living standards come from salaries, not stock portfolios.
Why is the deliberate weakening of our unions a forbidden topic on the media? Is it because FOX News/GOP defines it as 'left wing'? The word 'union' is rarely found in NYT op eds or TV pundit talk. The disconnect of profits/growth & citizens' living standards should be a main media topic in a democracy.
In Germany for instance, unions sit on corporate boards. How are their profits vs US corporations? The US has a self reinforcing accumulation of campaign money, profits and political power at the top. And millions of US jobs off shored, the better to donate big sums to favored candidates.
Our prestigious US media avoids tracing cause and effect.
28
$1.5 trillion for ... 4.1% quarterly growth.
13
At the beginning of this article, the reporter notes that there are "one-time" factors that influenced growth. But then the article doesn't tell us what those were!
2
@Rdeannyc It was not overtly stated but more implied: "In the short term, trade tensions may be contributing to growth by prompting foreign buyers to stock up on American products before their governments impose retaliatory tariffs. Soybean exports, in particular, have surged, rising more than 50 percent in May from a year earlier."
8
Fantastic example of the shortsightedness of the current administration. How do they expect to pay down the national debt when they continue to go further in debt during a booming economy?
The gains are simply increasing inequality as money is being hosed into the pockets of the 1%. In the long run, the current policies will result in a further weakening of American society.
23
But the 4.1% is not as good as Obama's 5% for two quarters in 2014 and that's without giving companies a huge tax break and causing a huge increase in debt. Trump's economic policies will eventually be an economic disaster.
54
Whenever I read articles touting successes of the American economy, I rarely see references to the heroes of those successes: the industrious, dedicated, intelligent, and incredibly productive American worker.
Hmmm ... I wonder why that might be?
14
I don’t know, Ric. Why don’t you tell us?
What is never talked about is how America's economy is stratified and where you are in the various stratas says what opportunities and outcomes you are likely to experience. Chrystia Freeland's book Sale of the Century tells about Russia's evolution from communism to oligarchy. America's plutocracy is on the verge of oligarchy and even as we discuss the greatest economy the world has ever known we are seeing what happened to Russia as it went from neoliberalism to oligarchy in the blink of an eye.America's economy is the envy of the world but Trump's followers are not looking at America's multi tiered economy they want Russia's flat economy where most of the population occupies the middle and the government and the oligarchs protect the status quo. Russia has no real poverty only mediocrity . There is a price to pay for the richest and largest middle-class the world has ever known. The kind of socialism Trump promises is very very Russian and that has been the promise of the GOP since I was in High School 55 years ago.
7
W Bush gave Tax cuts for billionaires resulting in a sugar hit. The long term results were the great recession.
13
@Joseph B
Bill Clinton and Democrats like Barney Frank imposed rules on the housing market that permitted people who ordinarily would not have qualified for a home purchase to get one. Those junk loans were then packaged and sold and when they went belly up the long term results were the Great Recession.
7
@EGD They also gave us a budget surplus and the most new jobs of any administration since WW2.
1
@Tony Gamino
Jobs were a result of the post-Cold War peace dividend; the deficits came about after the Republicans took the House in ‘94 and dragged Bill Clinton kicking and screaming towards a balanced budget.
Thank You, President Obama for pulling us out of the Great Recession and setting the table for the numbers we are seeing now. And when the economy dumps maybe next week, next year, in five years... The GOP will find a way to blame President Obama.
37
GDP numbers up...now what about a healthcare plan and some infrastructure projects to bring this nation into the 21st century.
27
If recent studies show that tax cuts have not translated into expanded investment, what is the basis of the author's assertion that tax cuts is adding fuel to the economy?
3
@migobears
Big donors will not invest in infrastructure; they will,reward their shareholders with bigger dividends. The Saudis are offering to buy our inter-State system in return for toll money. We will then be paying tolls to the Saudis to drive on a system we built with our tax dollars. How many business interests does Trump have in SA? How did his Trump Hotel escape the Emoluments Clause? Why is Trump planning to get rid of all the experts in Federal Agencies? He already gutted the State Dept., leaving consulates and embassies under staffed. Pruitt pretty much gutted the EPA. Who will be left to put out his ever increasing brush fires? Why are we suddenly admiring a known murderer who absconded with his country's treasury to London? How many Russians are really running the shell companies which bought empty apts. in Trump Tower? Why did Trump meet secretly with a known adversary who threatens democracies all over the world? Why has Trump done nothing to have the Federal govt. supervise and standardize our voting systems? Why has Trump attacked the FBI and the CIA? Why has Trump done nothing to deter the ongoing GRU interference with our State election processes? Why do we trust a man who owes a lot of personal money to a U.S. adversary?
3
Congratulations to the Trump Administration for the strongest GDP growth since........the Obama years.
Similarly, they are congratulated for extending the Obama Administrations 75 straight months of job growth by another 18 months.
54
Please forgive me for doubting Trump the Messiah. GDP growth of 4.1% is akin to walking on water, or at least turning water into wine. I am humbled and bow down to the king of smoke and mirrors.
When the deception is revealed and the numbers fail to add up to success in the next couple of quarters, will it be FAKE MATH or just that 2+2=4.
Ponzi schemes are able to float for only so long.
17
@Bag....Ponzi Trump would make a good cell mate for Ponzi Madoff.
The Republicans, as usual, inherited a great economy. They then superimpose their greedy, selfish policies that only benefit the wealthy and claim the economy is doing better because the wealthy have gotten even richer. But the real story is much different. The deficit is predicted to blow past 1 Trillion in 2019? Real wages have decreased because inflation is at a 6 year high wiping out the minor wage gains. Farmer need a bailout. Social Security and Medicare are bing threatened. People are losing, not gaining, health care. Insurance costs are increasing, deductibles are increasing. The cost of necessities are increasing. Food is skyrocketing. Energy costs are rising. The environment is being threatened in unprecedented ways. Bank deregulation as it always does will lead to a crash. Taxpayers will lose out as usual. Most of the indicators being used are meaningless to the average American. We know the wealthy are doing well. They always do. The problem is the other 99% of the population. Unless you are in the 1%, there is little to be happy about.
36
Great job Obama! You did such a great job that even Trump can't screw it up.
36
@Rajiv
I am very pleased with the job Obama did but growing the economy deserves to credit the President responsible for the 50 years of unsurpassed growth that nowhere else has managed to duplicate. Richard Nixon ended Bretton Woods in 1973 and America has controlled the Global Economy ever since.
I am Canadian and Trump is the President I have been waiting for since Reagan and Mulroney danced their jig. the world desperately needs new leadership.
3
@Memphrie et Moi:
i agree that the world needs new leadership.
but definitely not the kind djt represents.
he is out to replace one elite by another.
divisive, disruptive, destructive,
much too full of disdain and hate
[and perfidiously unfair].
i do favor smart inclusive solutions.
generous, constructive and caring.
@Memphrie et Moi
Let's make Trump president of Canada then.
Trump is exhausting.
He climbs on Obama's back and rides on Obama's perfect coattails to praise himself, when Trump was lucky enough to inherit an ideal economic expansion already years in.
Typical Trump, taking credit. It was Obama doing the work, bearing the worry, and having an obstructionist GOP to deal with. Obama had the perfect people on the economy and diligently did the right moves.
That economy was fine-tuned for Trump (whose businesses had 6 bankruptcies.) There were 8 quarters during the Obama years with 3% growth or higher. Obama had 2 quarters with 4.6% growth and a high quarter with 5.0 or 5.2% growth. Trump has always misled on all things Obama.
It was panicked exporters avoiding tariffs assisting the numbers for Trump--- a problem he created. So jealous of Obama's smarts that Trump can't see it. Notice he likely said GDP for the first time in his life. He could hardly pronounce it.
53
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts. The facts on the economy are pretty good today.
17
Trump also said the trade deficit has reduced. Yes, that will happen when countries including the US become less dependent on imports. However, much of what we buy has some component that is made external to the US. It will take a while, but the effects of this trade war will be felt on the price of consumer goods causing an economic slow down that won't be pretty, despite Trump's effort at dressing it up with lipstick.
6
That is super growth. Congratulations. The US economy sure is rocketing along. Use this time to pay down the $21 trillion. Imagine if this sort of momentum was combined with low debt!
11
@Nic This year's growth is in large part subsidized by $1 trillion annual federal budget deficits and about twice what it was before Trump came in raising spending and slashing taxes.
6
Have to wonder what our "progressives" think Obama did to get credit for Trump's excellent economy. Could it be the $ trillion stimulus and shovel ready jobs? No, couldn't be that there were no shovel ready jobs, Obama didn't even know what a shovel ready job was. Was it his war on coal? Nope not that either, that just inflicted economic violence on coal workers and ancillary services. Could it be his war on climate? No that was just giving away taxpayer $ to the tune of $billions. The only thing left for "progressives" is magic, I guess they believe some form of magic dust is responsible.
14
Yes, the Chinese have a detailed renewable energy plan, and we have tweets about a 19th Century energy source. How did you do in economics 101? I invite your comments about the yield curve.
5
@Marcus Aurelius
School children have good days when they can play outside, absent the worst mercury toxins belching from smokestacks. Chinese wear useless "medical" masks which do not keep out small particles of pollution. We are not China; L.A. and B.C. might be the new Chinas.
@jaco
Shovel ready jobs depended on infrastructure spending; the GOP refused to fund the money. Obama tried to talk to Congress about climate change, and our part in it, together with India and China; he finally did get some regulations in place. There was nothing Obama could do to save coal mines, given natural gas gaining ground. Despite Clinton's offer of job retraining for them and their kids, they rejected her offer, even with transportation thrown in. They stayed loyal to the mine owners who never upgraded or improved the ventilation for the miners with Black Lung disease. They didn't even know that Clinton supported Manchin in his fight for their health care, because they didn't want to know. Same thing in the mid-west facing shuttered factories and no comparable jobs. It was all "Crooked Hillary" invented by the biggest crook and tax cheat ever in the WH. They had learned to hate Clinton and they were sticking with it. Trump will pay off some farmers, and maybe that will temporarily help small towns. Big Ag will buy their small farms; they will be looking for work from those they sold to. Their kids will leave for better opportunities. All Clinton's fault, because she was a rich elite; Trump was a regular guy, much like the other regular guy who started a war and raised their taxes.
This rate is not sustainable. Tariffs will kick in. Interest rates are rising. Deficit and Debt are rising. Trump and his minions passed tax cuts to (over) stimulate a healthy moderate economy. The Piper will demand his due in the future.
14
Glad to hear APR.
Where I live we have a pharmaceutical benefits scheme, Medicare for everyone, disability support, government benefits and services for job seekers, low income government housing, a government funded higher education loan scheme with government paid benefits to cover living expenses while studying, and paid maternity leave. Our deficit as a percentage of GDP is considerably healthier than the US and is improving. Our economy is healthy and stable. The world is envious of your economy, Mr Trump? I think not.
I also live in a country where the government is committed to a clean environment, and where our children can go to school and be safe. I live in a country where our elected representatives are expected to conduct themselves in a way that reflects the trust placed in them. For example, no denigrating tweets, no war mongering, no mocking of disabled journalists. Would I swap where I live for where you live? Never.
75
I live in Australia too but I love the US as well. Soak up this excellent result.
7
@Concerned I am an expat yank who has lived in Australia over 25 years. Australia's economy has 26 straight years without a recession, strong middle class, high minimum wage and affordable health care and education. Australia's economy is the envy of the world, not the USA.
19
@Joseph B - Australia's economy is in many ways unique given it's abundant natural resources and relatively small population. If you look at Australian exports it's pretty much all natural materials. The US economy in contrast is highly developed and diversified with one of the highest GDPs per capita in the world for a population of over 300 million people.
Say what you want about America's many social ills and conflicts, poor governance, and faults. The US economy is nevertheless a miracle unmatched in human history.
The fallout won't happen
until the Dems win in November. So people
supporting this administration's policies will
see cause and effect fallaciously.
7
@coloradok
Yes,
I am almost hoping the Democrats lose so the Republicans can be stuck with the disaster they created, for a change.
1
This economic surge is the same as the rush to buy candles, bottled water, generators and flashlight batteries just before a hurricane.
15
The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF is down 0.8% today.
Please, Mister President, no more winning.
2
How much is it up this year? I dare say, an immense amount. Thank someone for that.
5
It ended 2017 at $137.25.
Today it closed at $145.32
Immense? Only by an innumerate's standards.
And you're welcome.
5
You know, being such a magnanimous person who possesses actual Christian values, not the right-wing kind which apparently are quite flexible and for sale, I'm going to give Trump's followers here this one, despite their intellectual dishonesty and hypocrisy (Obama destroyed the economy, despite his higher GDP than this; the real Unemployment number is a gazillion percent! That kind of thing), because let's face it, they need something to cling to, a tiny bright light in the rubble that is the Trump presidency. Let's allow them this moment of hyperbolic and dishonest joy. They've defended him through the indefensible, worked overtime to turn themselves into pretzels to convince themselves of their righteousness in backing someone whom they could crucify were it Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. That is very hard work and a whole lot of soul selling. Here, Trumpers: here is your quarter of 4% growth, which erases all the lying, all the treason, all the boorishness, vulgarity, hypocrisy, offensiveness....enjoy the moment.
11
My, my. Not sine President Obama have we seen such good growth Maybe the current so-called President can live up to the FOUR HIGHER QUARTERS OF GDP GROWTH the last real president achieved.
Likely, not.
7
This is great news.
Unemployment is at a 40 year low as well!
Somehow, NYT readers figure out a way to let air out of the
party balloons!
The alternative is a bad economy and Trump!
Ponder than fun idea for a moment!
8
unemployment was 10% when Obama took office. It was 4.6 % when he handed the reigns to Trump.
The stock market was 9000 (I think) when Obama took office, it was 19000 when Trump took over.
Trump really hasn't done that much except give tax breaks to the 1%, attempt to dismantle the ACA, deregulate the financial sytem, almost destroy the EPA with Pruitt at the helm@JK
I could go on but I would just be perseverating on topics that have already been discussed to death.
6
@JK We ponder that idea all the time and expect it to happen any day!
The sugar high before the crash.
17
The only people making money in this economy are the rich...
10
Why is there a constant attempt to avoid giving Trump credit for what he predicted he would do. You always have an excuse for not giving him any credit. I's getting tiresome. Can this man do anything right or will you always find a reason for why it has nothing to do with his policies.
16
@CBH
well, in this case, he didn't do it...that's why. you might be at the restaurant when a good meal is served but that doesn't mean you prepared it, even if that is what you claim.
1
@CBH: since you asked ...
the way i see djt, he can't do anything right
[as in 'correctly'] bc i find him too destructive,
too hateful and bc he lies much too often.
plus, i fail to see where he might have done
anything yet to benefit the entire nation.
he helps those at the highest top plus himself,
or maybe the other way round.
[he does talk plenty abt his plans to help america.]
If economic growth does not translate to a better quality of life, what is the point? and no, we are not the envy of the rest of the world....no universal health care, no universal parental leave, no universal sick days, no mandatory paid vacation days (and too short for most to boot), limited access to affordable child care, no public pre-school starting at age 3, excessive pharmaceutical costs, excessive higher education costs, poor public transportation, decaying infrastructure, insufficient affordable housing, dare I say more? We are not the envy of most modern countries. We must roll up our sleeves, vote and do a lot more work to improve our society.
14
A false economy fuelled by sectors stocking up and shipping out before the tariffs hit. The real economy will be evident in the next two quarters.
I believe most people know that everything is going to hit the fan shortly.
Trump as your chief economist is going to level the growth sooner or later. But probably sooner.
8
I feel badly for moderate blue-collar Democrats that love America and want American jobs. Their JFK style party has gone beyond Liberalism and showing true signs of a rise in socialism. At 4.1 GDP the Democratic party has abandoned the moderates for "open borders", abolish ICE, BLM, repeal tax cuts, impeach Trump for nothing etc. The everyday Democratic moderate voters cannot get behind that message and are more in-line with Trump on American jobs. No blue wave coming. Looks more Red.
10
@P McGrath
Well, since they rejected job retraining for jobs which do exist outside the robot and engineer run shuttered factories; they will have to stand behind the counter at the Dollar Store. Eventually the hated elite from the Coasts will arrive and invest in their Main Streets. It is hard to change from real hate to a moderate form of criticism.
Literally NO ONE supports an “open border” policy.
Stop your nonsense. Or provide evidence of such a claim.
So Trump gleams with his 4%+ economic growth. Again, he does not compare apples of today with those of yesterday. We sit here knowing more fake news hits the airwaves. If we had a president that care about the American people, wouldn't he be talking about the growth in jobs, about the growth in wages, about the reduction of government spending, about the reduction in our national debt. Where are those comments. Why does the average American worker that paid for a candy bar in the 1st quarter for .99 cents, pay during the 2nd quarter (Trump bragging about growth of 4.1%) a larger amount that is now $1.05? Ever get that feeling that Trump's word can never be trusted?
7
Since the wages are stagnant this excellent new for big corporation and the wealthiest 1%. The increase national debt and high growth will likely lead to increase inflation which will affect the poor and middle class disproportionately.
12
What about consumer debt and the rising cost of health insurance? We are seeing higher interest rates on credit cards (good for banks, quelle surprise), but that "beautiful" healthcare plan that is supposed to be "better and cheaper" is nowhere in sight.
In fact, all that Trump and his Congress have done is cut back on coverage, and now subsidies are threatened. They make life easier for themselves (the rich) and harder for the middle class on down. My parents just sold their home for ten thousand dollars less than they were asking. The market is glutted with houses, just as it was in the years leading up to the 2008 crash; interest rates are higher, so buyers can't borrow what they could before, depressing housing prices. My son's university increased tuition and housing costs for the second year in a row, food prices in our local grocery stores have risen, gas prices are higher, health insurance is up, utilities are up; clothing, movie tickets, haircuts are all up -- but few of us have seen a corresponding increase in income. Of course, this is all anecdotal, but if you went around and asked a lot of people, I'll bet you'd hear similar stories in quite a few quarters.
When are economists going to stop measuring the health of the economy based on what happens to rich people's money? When are they going to get some boots on the ground, so to speak, and find some indicators that measure how the humbler classes are managing -- or not managing, as the case may be?
14
No worries soy bean farmers.
Every single household in the EU is going to eat tofu three times a day,
off setting the drop in Chinese sales.
5
Since most Midwest farmers nowadays sell on the futures market--to reduce their risk-- the bailout covered the crops growing right now.
And you can be pretty sure many will grow zero soybeans next year.
So what will happen to their hundreds of acres of corn and wheat?
2
@Jean
Biofuel?
The key to understanding this GDP report is in the net exports figures. Typically, net exports are a drag on GDP growth of about 0.5%. However, this time net exports positively contributed 1.1% to the growth rate, a 1.6% swing vs. average.
Insert the typical net exports result instead and we had solid 2.6% GDP growth. There is your "real" number.
4
Trump actually is doing right with the economy. Hating him ,Doesn't change the GDP numbers. Which are fantastic. These numbers come under the Trump Administration. There's nothing u can say to change that
14
@Joe Vellano Check the numbers under Obama at times they were higher than Trumps. Wait till next year after people file their taxes and find they can no longer deduct part of their SALT taxes. My daughter is counting on losing 11K in deductions.
15
@Joe Vellano: Yes I can. Name one thing Trump has done to improve the economy and no cheating by giving him credit for president Obama's initiatives. Remember how bad things were during Obama's first two years in office? All of this was W's fault. Just because something occurs during a president's administration does not mean it is the result of their actions. What are you going to say in a few years when Trump's chickens come home to roost and your taxes are increased to pay for his mistakes.
11
This is like the supermarket shelf cleared out before the storm hits. It already has in Iowa. The rest of the country is next.
24
There couldn't have been a better slice of time than now for Donald Trump to be President. Negotiating better trade deals for America, illegal immigration down by 70%, MS-13 getting rounded up and locked up, lowest jobless rates, more money in average American's paychecks,Tax cuts for 90 % of Americans, North Korea De-nuclearizing, 4.1 GDP, seems like everything is working. Blue wave? I don't think so.
10
@P McGrath: In year or two you will wake up and realize all of this is a dream. All of president Obama's efforts will be wiped out by Trump. Trump will have to take responsibility for his actions resulting in high unemployment and a stock market crash. North Korea will still have their nuclear weapons and our taxes will go up to pay off the federal dept. Blue wave, I hope so.
10
This is still the Obama Economy. Trump has only added 1.3 trillion to the national debt, transferring almost all of it to the top 1%, and creating more chaos with threats and tariffs.
Keep coming, Obama. And, Thanks Obama!
40
@John
If trump had studied economics, he would know that the presidential successor reaps the harvest which has been sown by the previous one- in this case, Obama. But then Trump will never know, for he cannot accept that anyone else can do something better than he!
13
@John
Perhaps you could enumerate actions that Obama took that resulted in Trump's excellent economy? Magic? Yes?
6
@jaco
1. saved the American auto industry,
2. stemmed the loss of 800,000 jobs per month from the Bush-Cheney nose-dive economy,
3. promoted wind and solar energies that now contribute double-digit percentages to the state power budgets in Iowa and Texas.
4. spoke in complete and correct sentences of the English language.
5. You want more?
How do you define a good economy?
Rich are getting richer because the stock market is rewarding them. I am one of the few who has benefited but at the cost of those who do not have savings.
How many people have gotten raises, the only people who have benefited are those who are in the high tech industries with a college degree?
What % of the US population has college degrees? It is less than 50%.
Why is that the middle class is shrinking from 60% to below 40% in spite of high GDP?
I have friends who used to make lot more money in the high-tech world have to take a pay cut because they did not have a choice - their jobs are going to India sooner or later. These people are in 50-60s.
Unemployment is low but wages have not gone up. People look at their 401K and they feel rich. However, sooner or later - we all have to pay for the misdeeds of the $1T tax cut. We have a failing infrastructure, too many people abusing Medicaid and there is no stopping in spending on DoD projects.
This growth is due to companies buying goods before tarrif kicked-in. IT IS NOT A REAL GROWTH.
45
Just like the so called "fake news", these numbers don't tell the stories of the growing homeless shanties across the continent. It's business as usual in our right wing government where big business pays our houses of congress members to turn their heads and rig the laws to make even larger profits on the backs of what's left of the middle class. What a fine moment we are living...
19
@gary. I could be wrong here but I am fairly sure there are no elected republicans in seattle, la, sf, dc, nyc and all the other cities that have shanty towns.
3
generally good news. but has anyone noticed that wages have not risen, our infrastructure is still falling apart, and fewer folks can afford health insurance? now that we are in virtual full employment, what we can expect in the future is rising inflation. I wonder if everyone feels that they are better off today. some may. but I'm not sure that's a universal feeling.
23
I don't think we should believe anything this administration tells us. Slow and steady growth is best for the country. Thanks to the Republicans I'm still underwater from 2008. Even if the economy goes bad, Trump will not tell us the truth. It will be the BEST recession ever.
12
Hope Big Democrat Donors don't sabotage our economy as they bet against it.
5
The economy is doing fine.
Bring Pence to the White House already.
2
@New World
And his religious ideology, together with his wife/Mom who has to be with him at dinner if there any women present. Even Angela Merkel might try to seduce him; you never know.
So we can cancel the $12 billion bailout for farmers, right?
33
It would be nice for once if we could evaluate the economy and a current administrations effect on it without all the posturing and undeserving credit or blame. We embrace the magical thinking that short term indicators predict long term growth or loss without recognizing that economic effects take time and are rarely amiable to quick fixes. There some evidence that the Bush / Obama / congress response to the 2008 recession played a much smaller role in the recovery then was touted and would have happened anyway. This current cycle of growth is as likely tied to the gradual recovery from 2008 as to any actions taken during Trumps first year. Besides with his impulse behavior and general ignorance he’s likely to undo any good that might of come from an otherwise positive economic period of growth. As his business career shows he’s much better at selling than delivering and slapping his name on stuff doesn’t mean he created any of it. But yah know “ tariffs are great” and everything is excellent eh.
13
Boeing just beat Airbus in a large new order, despite the trade war making such foreign business harder.
3
Who cares? The benefits only go to rich people. That's what the tax cuts were all about.
23
News Flash: the U.S. economy ALSO grew at ....4.1% GDP.....back on 2014!
Donald is in the process of starting another recession with his " trade war"!
6
@Mari Please also account for historical low unemployment and full employment numbers, as well as consumer spending/confidence. When you consider all that it blows the 'ONE'S numbers away. Plus that quarter was an anomaly. The 4.1 quater was later adjusted to 3.5 The quarter before was 2.1 and the quarter after was 1.9
7
Good article - have been waiting for someone to parse the numbers. Trade figures not unexpected. Trumputin of course incapable of digging beyond his headline grabbing bragging. Going forward he will continue to take credit, divert attention from his ethical problems. Other economic indicators not so shiny. Economics is a long term trend science - science of course beyond the comprehension of General Bone Spurs. He is still fixated on his "Military Parade" and certainty of his receiving a Nobel Peace Prize -- won't happen. Vote
12
well Donnie old boy still not as good as under Obama in the early part of 2014, when it appears one for sure topped 5% and the next almost 5%, just saying others have been in control and positive things have happened on there watch for our economy. looks like from the chart shown with this article you came in 3rd, honorable mention. Somehow you will be able to convince your base you took gold. I also noticed in 2017 there were a couple of drops towards the end of the year. time will tell if this will last, if it doesn't who will you blame, we all understand you only take credit when its your favor.
8
@Ricky Ricky please lose that number of 5% It was later adjusted to 4.1, Obama 'the one' heads can now rise up never had over 3% ANNUAL GDP. The ONLY President not to make that claim. MMMM maybe because he is a socialist. ?
4
@Frank sorry frank, its the number in the chart provided so i think i will stick with it. maybe it was adjusted on fox for you. plus the news networks have also been saying it was in 2014 we had a higher number. but thanks anyway.
Its the endless scramble for classical economic 'growth' that is being the downfall of this planet. I suppose its a sort of simplistic score point that trumps base can appreciate but in the wider more enlightened scheme of things its no great deal.
In baser terms - these numbers will come back to bit him on the .....
6
@concerned Dear concerned what the economic indicators show is that people have opportunities and that makes people content. In life there are highs and lows, but all we wish is contentment.
Thank You your conservative friend
GDP is just one economic indicator.
Why doesn't a story like this mention the OTHER economic indicators, since necessary for total picture?
6
@Jean I don't think you really want that. With 4% GDP growth, 4% unemployment, low inflation and a healthy stock market, all the indicators help Republicans.
1
Economic growth seems to be a sacred cow, but numbers are only indicating that someone is profiting. They say nothing about who's pofiting, and if everybody's getting their fair share. If not, it's about time to ask for more.
16
@claire
GDP is not directly connected to profits. It's more like the total of transactions.
1
I replaced a non-thermal entry window and front door, updated drapes in two bedrooms, and replaced a mattress set. All long overdue and not to be repeated. When dishwasher started acting up. Rushed to replace before a trade war brings tariffs.
9
Economic growth is not environmentally sustainable either. We've known that for a while. Meanwhile the Earth gets hotter.
17
@Ambrose
Wealthier countries have cleaner environments. The USA recently had the largest year to year CO2 emission reduction because Donald Trump is making the atmosphere great again.
4
Most-fascinating. the momentary U.S American economy is as an imaginary alternate reality-filled Bubble, as are the genocidal violent xenophobic and fascistic false-hoods-preaching fossil-fuel, and gun-Mafia hot-airs filling the highest political and economic places across the Americas. So much to that Bubble.
Hmm... what is ever most-fascinating:
So. Zucks said that verifiably false information would “lose the vast majority of its distribution in News Feed”, adding that he believed “the best way to fight offensive bad speech is with good speech”.
But, the little legally diferenciatable huge problem for Facebook is: covertly, particular over, Russian and other countries' paid-for political, violent hate-crimes-inducive Facebook advertisements do not "lose the vast majority of its distribution in Facebook's News Feed", as Mark said baseless nonsensical. Alone because those later verifiably false information ARE oficially 100% paid-for to Facebook, and does not constitute any individual average private Facebook user's opinoin, but a paid-for political, corporate or non-profit Foundation-led political paid-advertisement, which as we know helps perpertually grow Facebook's IPO.
Ergo.., dear Mark? You tell me you America's big business "Genius" Mark:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/20/facebook-pledge-to...
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/20/facebook-crimson-hexa...
1
Great but my 401K went from 27% return last year to 1.2% in 2018 because of Trump’s stupid trade wars.
15
@Scrumper
Check your 401K’s choices. I’m up equal with the nasdaq which after today’s bashing is around 12-13% year to date. The Nasdaq has an outsized lead since Jan.1. The Dow and S&P have lagged greatly because of trade tariff questions which do not hurt some tech stocks like cloud oriented companies. You might switch to their most aggressive choices at the 401 but ask others....I’m not a financial planner just a momentum trader but we switch positions on a dime and can specialize in tech.
2
So your up 28.2% during his presidency?
1
"Because of Trumps stupid trade wars". How so? Please explain or please stop throwing out sweeping statements.
And is the average wage earner benefitting--Oh a bag of groceries worth-Wake up America!!!
21
It's like, uh, "We already expected this so it's no big deal" and, uh, "It won't last because President Trump is to thank for this so it can't last or the fall elections are doomed for us."
Thank you, NYT, for your economic expertise and an objective look at what hating success is all about.
11
Exactly what I was thinking. Earlier, they put it in ostensibly good news, but there are "asterisks." Tensions with two nuclear powers reduced, but.... Here's the takeaway?
1
@to make waves Thank you good post.
1
It was the economists the NYT was quoting. They also quote Trump. Seems like reasonable reporting.
Overvalued companies which are not generating profit are a possible economic time bomb. Look at Facebooks huge plummet. There are many others with billions of dollars in paper value, but not generating profit.
The country faces some serious economic and wealth distribution problems.
Did you know that part of Henry Ford's success was that he paid his workers a living wage and they could afford to buy one of his cars? While companies like Amazon and many others are making billions, their workers can't afford health care.
17
@USQ New Yorker I do believe it was Jeff Bezos and Wm Gates who offered their employees excellent health plans. If I am wrong, let me know.
The Trump crash will be the biggest evah! Overheating the economy makes him feel big, but he's also very very good at bankruptcy and stiffing the little guys.
20
@Susan (allo luv)
Essentially it is one big conspiracy of insider trading on a national/global scale. There have already been shorts, and now the administration is using tens of billions of taxpayer dollars to carve out exceptions (for the base) to all of the new republican taxes(tariffs).
The bill will be in the trillions.
12
@Susan Anderson
but if this is not the result, how will you explain it?
5
@Susan Anderson what the economic indicators show is that people have opportunities and that makes people content. In life there are highs and lows, but all we wish in life is contentment. Trump is trying to make that happen. But on a sunny side..............
Thank You your conservative friend
1
Republicans run bubbles, crash the economy, and Democrats pick up the pieces. Also, there are really two economic classes. The people who have money making money, and the people who are wage earners. The kind of bubble growth the Republicans run make money for the extremely wealthy. They can weather losses, and can even make money on the bust part of the cycle.
13
I bought a house, a washer and a dryer, three beds, and household goods last quarter and a car in the third quarter of 2017. I did my part, but it won't happen again.
10
We haven't had a major war since the Iraq invasion in 2003--15 years. Maybe this is really the people and businessmen and women finally seeing a stable world system and unconsciously believing that peace is possible. If big wars continues to be avoided, people's creativity and desire to start businesses will grow and some small wars might start to die out as combatants realize the world's wealth is surging ahead in peace while their skirmishes yield only blood and poverty (I'm talking to you South Sudan). Who knows, maybe peace will become a trend. Let's hope this could be true. I haven't heard any report from economists on the factor of peace as an engine for growth.
3
Perhaps you haven't noticed, but we're still at war in Iraq, Afghanistan and assorted other places like Sudan. All of that money, literally going up in smoke helps boost GDP.
5
Based on what is known about Trump, this is probably not true. Just saying...
4
@Common Sense
like lbj if trump walked on water you'd say yes cause he cant swim
2
Can we have an increase in wages and benefits at the bottom of the pyramid, please?
Time for the top people to stop hoarding and share a little.
50
With the 9000% increase in soybean sales (for fear of tariffs) said to contribute to the 4.1% GDP this quarter, this surge could just be a hill of beans.
27
But GMO soybeans were just approved in Europe for the first time. A major soybean market addition
1
After all Trump is pretty good in making economic and trade policies for American people. The more people criticizing him the better performance from Trump. Are we winning the trade war?
3
@Mclean4
>Mclean4
"Are we winning the trade war? "
Undoubtedly - as long as Trump keeps using taxpayers' dollars to bail out those industry sectors harmed by his trade policies.
14
McLean4, Donald just used hard earned TaxPayer $$$$$ to PAY OFF the Soy bean Farmers who will lose their market thanks to Donald!
Hardly winning!
7
@Mike Edwards
Don;t give up hope.
The war just began.
Lest you start heeding the fake news from Trump loyalists here are the facts:
QUARTERLY GDP growth reached above 3% about 8 TIMES under President Obama.
ANNUAL GDP growth rose as high as 2.9% under Obama, but never breached 3% on an annual basis.
ANNUAL GDP growth in 2017 under Trump was 2.3%, not quite the 3% that Trump was hoping. 2018 ANNUAL GDP growth can hit 3% but only if revised figures for this quarter hold and there's no slowing as expected for the rest of the year as much of this growth is non-recurring and tariffs start to take effect. Wouldn't likely to happen, I'm afraid.
Though I question judging any president's performance by GDP growth, Trump so far hasn't done much better if at all by this single metric.
16
@Alex Bernardo
Not relevant that he hasn't done much better.
Stating he hasn't done much better means he has done better just not much better.
Liberals thought he would destroy the economy.
Not only has he not destroyed the economy he has actually according to you done better.
That means he can't be all that bad as some think.
I would still not vote for him and I still do not like him I have to acknowledge he can do somethings right.
2
You need to read my comment in its entirety and not chop up one line and turn it into a conclusion.
Here are the rules, whether you like them or not. For well over 100 years, the sitting president takes the credit if the economy is good, and gets the blame if the economy is bad.
And, be honest, if this were not Trump, we would all gladly give the president credit.
Also, again whether we like it or not, the tax cuts did play a role in the growing economy. As the article indicates, according to a senior economist at Bank of America “Consumers got a decent amount of cash after the tax cuts". This of course flies in face of the "Armageddon" predicted by Nancy Pelosi, and the claims by many that only corporations benefited. So, someone is lying. Either those who deny that the tax cut benefited workers or the economist. Take your pick. Quite frankly, as long as I got my tax cut, which I did, I really don't care if the corporations ( which employ most of us), got their tax cut. Good for them.
“Consumers got a decent amount of cash after the tax cuts,”
9
>Gino
"Consumers got a decent amount of cash after the tax cuts."
Really? How do they know? They haven't filed their 2018 returns yet. We'll see how decent the cash is when 04/15/19 rolls around.
Besides - if all that was needed to stimulate an economy was a reduction in federal income tax paid by consumers - why not reduce the tax to zero?
Pelosi was spot on. The huge increase in the federal deficit to fund the corporate tax cuts is on the backs of those consumers - who will lose whatever benefits they may have gained, in 2025, when the current changes that pertain to them are reversed.
9
This "fair amount of cash" is a one time deal! Wages for Middle and Working Class Americans are ...stagnant!
FYI: GDP grew above 3% several times during Obama's watch!
10
@Gino G
I completely agree with you that presidents of both parties take credit for a good economy and blame others for a bad economy. The economy is much bigger than government policy, which under any president has minimal positive impact on economic growth. Other than exceptionally bad policy, government policy also generally doesn't harm the economy.
"Quite frankly, as long as I got my tax cut, which I did, I really don't care if the corporations ( which employ most of us), got their tax cut. Good for them."
The above said, I must ask if you care about the national debt.
I am not a balanced budget hawk, but I do believe in at least some semblance of fiscal responsibility. At least don't increase the federal deficit during an economic expansion.
It's not raining today. It's time to pay our bills.
The corporate tax cuts were probably good long-term policy. I just wish that they were paid for and deficit-neutral.
I do believe in deficit spending to invest in the future in a few select areas. (For current expenditures, the government should pay as it goes. Can't cut spending? Increase taxes.)
Prudent deficit spending is for infrastructure, education, and advanced research. These three things pay long-term dividends to the American people, and are among the few economic sectors for which the private sector has little incentive to invest. (Past dividends include the internet and satellites.)
3
Are we going to get an apology from Paul Krugman for predicting a world-wide recession?
19
@Amos
This is ONE quarter, similar to 2014. Are you really suggesting that one quarter of growth of the type we've seen before recently, is a reliable indicator of a sustained period of 4.1 percent growth, considering the tariff war we've just started?
Moreover, this type of growth is NOT sustainable, even if there were reasonable economic policy supporting it. We've seen the same behavior in the stock market, severe volatility that really doesn't help anyone, especially the common man.
I know you're starved for good news for 'Amerika's leader but this probably is the only type you'll ever get: some wildly good news, that seems too good to be true. It won't be true but you'll have forgotten by then I suspect.
10
@Amos Or for his more thoughtful academic pieces about why the US economy would never again grow at 3%.
2
@Amos Oh brother. Seriously? Forget the Faustian bargain you all made to have Trump become president, and the massive amount of hypocrisy. You really believe one quarter is indicative of anything????? Well, then again, you Trumpers DID say that Obama destroyed the economy despite his consistent growth and even a quarter in 2014 with a higher GDP than this. You want to apologize to him for that??? You Trump are such children, and so dishonest, to yourselves mostly.
17
I know some Republicans will be willing to compromise their integrity and values, particularly Evangelicals, to support Trump simply bc of the economy. It doesn't matter that he is a liar and bully and the most unethical president the USA has ever had.
17
Welcome back to the boom/bust cycle. It’s good to grow, but not too fast. Sustainable economic development and growth is the best. What exactly is mr. Trump’s policy on that?
8
Again, the "economy" is doing well, but WHOSE economy?
The folks that work 10 to 14 hour shifts at Amazon (median pay: $27,000/year), who, after paying most of that in rent, have roughly $700 a month for food, clothes, car and car insurance, and wind up on food stamps?
Or the economy of Jeff Bezos, the Trumps, Google, Facebook, companies with few competitors who can thereby suppress wages, because they're the only game in town, and keep all of their 21-23% tax reductions for investments, not increased salaries.
Or is it the economy of the fully employed person who must work two $7.50/hour jobs, while the chain he works for banks millions?
Are we discussing the economy of the trillion dollar deficit the Republicans gave the U.S. as a result of their tax gift to the wealthy, followed by the $12 billion bail out for farmers because Congress let Trump start a trade war? Who pays for this?
Certainly not the wealthy. That leaves the average American shouldering the burden of keeping the country running, while facing higher taxes next year and a government that only represents the wealthy.
So to say the "Economy" is doing well, one must specify that of the top 1%, or that of the rest of us.
The 1% are doing quite well. The poor and middle class suffer low wages and diminishing Medicaid, the effects of deficit spending and higher taxes.
Lauding the current economy is to be blind to 99% of it.
62
@Lilou Please don't compare Trump with Blezos or Walmart. The companies are killing America and need to be destroyed. Beyond that Trump can claim below, also a peaceful NK.
what the economic indicators show is that people have opportunities and that makes people content. In life there are highs and lows, but all we wish is contentment.
Thank You your conservative friend
1
@Frank--Hi Frank! I put Trump in the list, not because his financial worth is on par with Bezos, nor, as Company Trump, does he have a lot of power to suppress wages in the construction sector.
I put him on the list as a wealthy beneficiary of the tax gift given to the wealthy by Republicans this year.
Did you know it's unconstitutional for Congress to vote on a law that only benefits their class? Yep, 'tis true. If they had created a bill that benefited all classes equally, that would have been legal, but they didn't.
So every Congressperson who voted for the tax package violated the Constitution, voted themselves a lovely gift, and threw the weight of supporting U.S. services -- infrastructure, education, healthcare, the environment -- on the backs of the poor and middle class. Their taxes will go up next year... the wealthy's will go down.
You're right that people do have opportunities to work--part-time at under $15/hour or full-time at $7.50/hour and work two jobs.
The mega-companies like Amazon and Google suppress wages, employ people part-time or import lower wage workers from abroad.
This is a very brief summary of wages for working people. If you're part of the investor class and got a huge tax reduction, what can I say? You won?
But as for an abundance of good-paying, full-time job opportunities, they don't exist.
Bush and Obama squandered money on wars and "stmulis" At least Trump is letting people keep their own money.
But...this 20 trillion dollar debt is an immoral thing what we did to our kids. Just immoral.
@Jerome Trump is going to have a $1 trillion deficit this year in an up economy when the deficit should be dropping, and federal government spending is growing the fastest it has in many years with Republicans in full control! Trump's stimulus was simply bigger than Obama's and branded differently.
1
I see a blip. If it stays at 4 for a year we can talk. The only consistent thing coming out of the White House is the daily slurry of deficit growth and scandals.
12
@JH You really want to talk about consistency? Look at the graph. The economy has been doing well consistently since 2016, and before that it was all over the place. There were certainly good quarters during Obama's tenure but "inconsistent" is exactly the term I'd use to describe the GDP graph between 2012 and 2016.
3
This article, and the comments, yet again betray the same lack of understanding of basic econometrics that bedevils so much popular reporting in the mainstream.
The main driver of a nation-state's absolute GDP growth is its population increase.
Consequently, GDP per capita and GDP growth per capita matter more than GDP per se and GDP growth per se.
https://qz.com/1194634/the-world-bank-wont-stop-reporting-gdp-instead-of...
3
@Colenso So in a slowly growing population like the US, a growth rate of 4.1% is much more significant than it would be in a fast growing population like India.
1
The GDP is affected by automation. While it does increase the need for low paying jobs, it further increases the divide in the US.
A recent experience at a big box store which delivered a shower door that had been returned and was missing parts, causes me to ponder what we are measuring. The store had no more of the shower door I wanted so they sent my contractor to another store which had three in stock. He returned the shower door with the hardware that had been cut down, and was told me they didn't have any of the three doors listed in inventory. They did have a different model. I told him to get it. When they started to load it he noticed the package had been opened. He made them look and sure enough, the hardware had been cut down and the door returned! He came back with a shower curtain and a rod!
I asked the store manager how you could lose 3 Kohler shower doors and still make a profit. We counted nuts and bolts years ago without hand held scanners and computers.
These numbers don't represent reality!
Despite the spin from the right wing types, this is just a one quarter GDP growth number before adjustments.
Notice how it's the highest quarterly growth since 2014. Who was president then? Oh, right, that terrible guy Obama, who managed higher quarterly growth than Trump despite Trump's yuge corporate tax cut that blows up the deficit.
Let's see how an extra $2 trillion in debt supercharges our economy on a yearly level. Until then, keep them stock buybacks coming. Oh, and housing bubble v.2 is really fun, too -- for some.
8
The economy hasn’t been “growing” since Obama’s first term. The country was emerging from a recession. The US has had 40+ recessions in its history. What makes Obamas tenure remarkable was simply that this recession lasted the longest. The country emerged more quickly from the Great Depression than it did from the prolonged recovery we endured.
3
"The country emerged more quickly from the Great Depression than it did from the prolonged recovery we endured".....due mostly from strong congressional leadership during the Great Depression which has been lacking over the past 10 years.
2
4.1% GDP growth this quarter! Obama mocked trump before the election when trump said that he would achieve >3% growth with his quote in 6/2016 during a PBS townhall meeting:
"He just says, 'Well, I'm going to negotiate a better deal.' Well, what, how exactly are you going to negotiate that? What magic wand do you have? And usually the answer is, he doesn't have an answer."
Obama GDP average during his 8 years:
Including the latest Commerce Department figure, the average GDP growth rate during his tenure was about 1.5%. The only president with a worse economic record since 1930 is Herbert Hoover.
15
@Rosa Maria
Easy there. President Obama inherited an economy in melt-down thanks to Republican "free market" strategies. Remember Secretary Hank Paulson begging for rescue? Remember traders on the NYSE exclaiming "we've been rescued?" Ironic -- a Democrat President bailed out the fat cats because it was the right thing to do for all of us. His steady hand and often unpopular decisions - rescue GM - helped us survive what would have been Great Depression II.
The incumbent president...not so much. He has supercharged the economy with a gigantic tax cut benefiting the wealthy and corporations, enacted tariffs that cause businesses to supercharge their purchases and then personally claim credit for this historically long economic expansion. That's a recipe for future disaster. Your children and grand children will pay the price for your undying allegiance to an individual woefully unprepared to lead. Stop listening to Fox News and think for yourself...
8
Hey @Rosa Maria, lets not forget about Baby Bush and his little wars around the globe, tax cuts, etc. that drove the economy off the cliff. Had it not been for that 1.5% "terrible" average of GDP growth solely from the executive branch (remember also those pesky little sit-on-our-hands Republicans), we would most likely still be in the pickle Baby Bush left us in.
4
@Rosa Maria Pretty dishonest comment, Rosa. Completely lacking in any context whatsoever. Intellectual dishonesty is the cornerstone of the Trump cult, seems to me. Btw, farmers didn't need a $12 billion dollar bailout under Obama, due to Obama. See how you ignore details, like what Obama inherited versus Trump? Might want to change that habit.
6
The average American suffered greatly under President Obama. Fortunately, President Trump is leading the way to a strong economy, a strong America and the American people are grateful.
17
@Julia Wow. I can't get used to just how incredibly intellectually dishonest Trump supporters are. But then, they'd have to be, I supposed.
FYI: $12 billion for the farmers, suffering from Trump's tariffs. No doubt that is somehow different.
6
@Julia Maybe the average American, living in a red state where the right wing locals governments cut ALL social services and infrastructure spending while declining federal funds just to spite Obama, suffered greatly but people in blue states that invested in their people did just great under Obama
1
RealAmericans™, which I think is what you mean, suffered greatly from having an uppity black man ram various large objects down their throats.
And how they miss him.
So what happens when China calls in the debt it owns? And when are Trump supporters going to stop believing him and start believing their "lying eyes"?
6
Consumer spending is up because the cost of products, healthcare and gas have gone up under Trump.
5
Thank you, President Obama, for setting the table! As for labor, better get your unions ramped up again. The GOP could care less about you. As for those who can't even get burger flipping jobs, you've been "disappeared," but not so much that you can't vote. The challenge is to think and vote at the same time.
8
Unions are dead. The unions may have served a purpose before the Federal Gov't decided to regulate the Coal Industry. But since then, the Unions just served to enrich themselves. Federal judicial judgments have ruled the Unions cannot compel workers to pay them off even if the workers benefit.
BTW, most voters, esp under the age of 40, cannot tear themselves away from phones, on-line games and on-line pornography long enough to register to vote, then remember to vote to do any good for Democracy.
7
@John LeBaron
Obama averaged the lowest GDP growth (1.46%) of any presidency. Exactly what are you grateful for?
7
@Dr. M Why, how very dishonest of you, Dr.
This is just more obsession with Financial numbers which are cooked to look good but the meal still tastes like effluent from the sewer plant for most people. We made more low paying jobs that don't cover the rent yay for us! MAGA Baby!
9
The bottom line is that 4.1% GDP costs ONE TRILLION dollars of deficit. (with a large portion of that being redistributed from the poor and middle classes to the top 1% and corporations )
You simply cannot ''spin'' that any other way.
44
The worry isn’t that the numbers aren’t great. They are. The worry is long-term or even just the next few years: I can borrow a trillion dollars to make it seem as if I were really rich. Yachts, Ferraris, mansions. “Look at my tremendous wealth!”
The problem is when it’s time to call in the debt. Trump bankrupted casinos by over-leveraging, and this should be a scary thought to anyone.
24
'due to a confluence of events not likely to recur' -- like Obama's economic policies! the current "president" is not responsible for the current economic prosperity. it takes a fairly long time for policies at the federal level to affect the economy in general.
14
The economy has been growing since early in President Obama's first term, as a matter of fact starting in its second month. As others have pointed out, there have been similar spikes before. The reasons this time are outlined in the article and correctly described as not likely to be repeated.
Economic growth or decline is a long game. Trump's economic policy so far has been kind of strange when it could even be discerned, so his taking credit for this is about as deserved as his getting credit for the sun rising this morning.
Ho hum.
23
@John, it seems the high altitude is affecting you dear John.
The growth during Obama was anemic at best.
History revisionists without any hard facts are like a kite in the wind.
Hard to admit, difficult to process eh? Perhaps for Q3, we can deliver a 5, now, wouldn't that be irritating?
5
@Clara
Obama inherited a Bush/Cheney recession; he dug out of that and created 800,000 jobs; it would have been better if he could have gotten funding for infrastructure; the GOP preferred to let the infrastructure deteriorate, and to give States a finite sum to do what they could. CA did what it had to do. Bush started a trillion dollar war in Iraq, signed an Agreement with Iraqis which put us in a situation where we had to deal with their corrupt government; Obama had to work with that, and with the angry disbanded military which morphed into ISIS. He had to deal with an Iran still angry over the loss of Mossadegh; they did not trust us. Obama finally got a 10 yr. Agreement to not produce plutonium which could not be weaponized, with U.N. Inspectors on site, signed on by allies, Russia and China. That is the Agreement Trump wants to trash. Trump's relationship with Putin and Russian lenders is highly suspect.
Key word that everyone misses around is wages here the GDP can be 4.1 percent but look at wages folks. You have not seen wages increase since 1980. What media and the govt never realizes is the media and the govt can proclaim the economy is doing good but they don't talk to the average person on the street at all. I would ask them get out of the bubble and come look around you have folks that can't afford the extreme amount of rent, gas, the cost of food, and then the cost of healthcare in this country is out of control. Most people are struggling to get by now a days and if possible a lot of people are living on credit cards. Which in the long can only get you so far. Eventually people in this country are going to run out of road. That is the real economy most Americans are living not these 1 percenters.
18
It means NOTHING to the tens of millions of Americans who can't afford rent, food, and medications all in the same month. It means nothing to the millions of people carrying tens of thousands of dollars in student loan debt. It means nothing to the millions falling out of the middle class because wages have been falling behind the cost of living for more than 20 years now.
When will media outlets like the NYT stop acting like these numbers mean something significant? They don't.
14
@Deborah Herman
Fair point! But, with all due respect; Hardly understandable why 40% of these poor folks voted to give 1 Billion Bucks to the wealth and leave almost nothing for them.
That wasn't the decision of some "media outlets".
On the contrary.
3
"The economy is doing better. . . "
Ahem. "The Economy "doesn't buy groceries nor pay rent. It is a lumbering hulk whose fattest parts know not how the leaner parts are doing and seems to be immune to the gangrene that is the decades of wage stagnation. There is no rising tide, and there are powers that would punch holes in the smallest of the boats. So, spare me the numbers, and I'll spare you the metaphors. Thank you.
68
@Juliana Sadock Savino
"[The economy] is a lumbering hulk whose fattest parts know not how the leaner parts are doing."
Well put.
Gout comes to mind.
14
@MidtownATL Touché!
A solid analysis of the numbers shows extreme volatility in the results. While it's 4.1% now, there is no way to accurately predict (as Peter Novarro was attempting to do on NPR this morning), even the next quarter. Overall, there has been a slight upward trend reaching back a few years, but this is still not sufficient to predict the overall yearly growth or if we're entering into a leveling trend or crash. There are far too many predictors of a complete crash as well as those for continued growth. Presently, it appears to be a coin toss. All I would be able to say was "Hold on to your hats; it's going to be a bumpy ride!"
6
No matter what happens the progressives are going to prophesy apocalypse. The growth will continue for at least two years if not longer. We have to remember that although tax cuts were adopted last year, most of us will see high tax returns only next year. That is going to boost consumer spending even more. Trump also plans to increase infrastructure investments that will give even more boost. All these factors should benefit our economy well into the 2020s. So, no reason to predict gloom and doom.
12
We were promised infrastructure spending two years ago, and we've seen nothing. Meanwhile, real wages are down in the US; hard for the shrinking middle class to fuel the economy when they have even less buying power
7
Do you really think that "Trump has plans" beyond his personal situation, if even that?
9
@Gennady
I am also looking forward to the inflation when the huge government deficit hits the GDP due to the huge tax cuts for businesses, along with increased consumer spending with the measly tax cuts for the middle class, along with the negative consequences of tariffs (no more cheap TV's at Walmart!). What happens when the middle-class tax cuts expire after 2020? Oh. I know. We will get a double whammy of higher taxes AND inflation. Sad.
4
Fasten your seat belts, folks--the Trump economy is blasting off! This is the worst possible time in history to be a liberal--watching all of their cherished, governo-centric, socialist, centrally-planned economic theories, dashed to smithereens.
15
@Jesse The Conservative - Check back with us in 18-24 months when the Trump recession hits.
8
You are right. it is sad time , but the Conservatives have surprisingly short memory, and already forgot how their wonderful tax-cutting ride ended up in the crush of 2008. So enjoy, while you can
1
@Jesse The Conservative did you say the same when Obama had a 5.2% quarter?
4
Re: Obama recovery
Econ 101
The US approach of stimulus spending was not a notable success. From 2008 (last year before recession ) to 2016 US GDP per capita (which counts how well individuals fare) increased by 5.98% in the US (less than 1% year)
On the other hand , the German approach using a version of Milton Friedman's helicopter money (direct pay to companies to keep workers on the payroll from where it flowed directly into the pockets of workers) plus "austerity" after 2010 increased the German GPD per capita 8.40% during the same period.
On the most basic level the difference in dealing with the recession was that in the US the money printed
flowed mostly to the rich, in Germany to workers.
The classic example is how Mark Zuckerberg (of all people) used the low interest rates to refinance his home at 1% , while laid off home owners with underwater mortgages being non- credit worthy could not get their hands on the money printed.
(See Bloomberg New, 7/16/2012 "Zuckerberg’s Loan Gives New Meaning to the 1%)
---
Data
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-per-capita
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-per-capita
15
Nothing that a little Democratic Socialism can't fix.
12
@Asher like 12 billion to farmers?
1
The 'strong Obama economy continues" narrative is ludicrous, particularly for Democrats. Obama lost control of the House (for good) in 2010 and lost control of the Senate in 2014. Democrats are constantly whining that Obama couldn't get anything done, because for six years of eight he lacked control of one or both Houses of Congress. The economy took off post 2010 precisely because Obama could no longer meddle with it (as he did 2008-10 with Obamacare), shackle it with absurd regulations or suffocate it with taxes. Credit for the improving economy post 2010 belongs to the Republican Congress, not the (thankfully forever after) impotent Obama.
15
@Richard
Bravo!! Democrats have short memories.
6
"The acceleration in gross domestic product was widely anticipated by economists, a result of a confluence of events unlikely to recur"
Huh? Widely anticipated? You mean like when your star Nobel economist ( and anti-Trump frother in the mouther in residence) Paul Krugman confidently predicted a stock market collapse and deep recession if Trump was elected? That type of "widely anticipated"?
If this strong growth ... which so far is debunking the beloved Obama's claim that any GDP growth over 3% is impossible in this day and age ... continues past the "blip" stage, it'll be fun to hear what the NY Times' explanation is then.
10
Sustainable annual GDP growth above 3% is unrealistic. Obama had quarterly increase above 4%. Context matters
11
@JW Another Trump supporter confusing quarterly growth with ANNUAL growth. Let me know when Trump has ANNUAL growth above 3%.
10
Government statistics are just that and serve no one's interest except the folks serving them up to us for the Koch brothers and alike. This government lies continually since day one and these reports are lies as well, the truth is just around the corner and it will be an undeniable truth.
4
Interesting. When it grew faster than this in that quarter in 2014, Republicans called it "Obama destroying America/the economy" and "doing nothing." Now it's proof that all those Mulligans for Trump are worth it.
6
Did anyone else hear Peter Navarro, a Trump economic advisor announce the GDP number on NPR this morning at 7:15 am, an hour before it's official release?
3
I already feel richer. Think I'm gonna have that second piece of toast.
23
Yes, his policies stink, but blaming Trump for all bad things, and then blaming him when good things happen to occur, is a way of saying, "I'm 100% partisan".
No decent political party would have ever allowed Trump to be their candidate; but it is also true, that no decent political party would have run a candidate who could not beat him.
We are all in this mess together.
10
@Peter Zenger
We most certainly are not all in this together. That is the problem. There is a wide gap between the haves and have nots in this society, which can be the difference between life and death. Furthermore, many of us know fascism when we see it, and want nothing to do with its crybaby proponents.
1
That's really good news. The bad news is that trump's ties have grown by the same amount. Kite tails :)
2
Has anyone noticed that the stock markets are down today! Why? The economy is booming, companies' profits are bigger than ever! There's a Trump in the woodpile!
2
@cdearman facebook?
5
@cdearman
Perhaps because Facebook is finally on the way out? For good, hopefully!!
5
Liberals don’t want the economy to fail. We want Trump to fail. In fact he is a manifest failure as a President and human being. Ditto fir his supporters. I want him gone.
33
Here is a quote from Trump's comments this morning:
"Each point — you go up one point — that doesn’t sound like much; it’s a lot. It’s $3 trillion and it’s 10 million jobs."
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-...
That is preposterous.
The US GDP is $18 Trillion a year. Growth by $ 3 Trillion is a growth rate of 16.67% a year. There is no way an $18 Trillion GDP increases by $3 Trillion in one year.
Trump suggests a 1% increase in the growth rate results in 10 million jobs.
In the typical good year, employment grows by 3 to 4 million. 10 million is 2.5 to 3 times the typical growth. Again, that is preposterous.
How can this man say such incredibly stupid things in public?
75
Lying Donnie every time, day in day out. So utterly disgusting.
And the clock keeps ticking!
http://www.usdebtclock.org/current-rates.html
7
The day this agency report a lousy number, this same white house will shout fake news. This is trademark Trump. Burn money, sell a bad condo, and bust away. Somebody else will pick up the tab.
8
As this article notes, the 4.1% GDP growth is helped by two factors that are difficult to quantify. 1) the impact of tax cuts -
I didn't see enough growth in my (admittedly small) paycheck to justify spending a lot of money and I suspect that most lower and middle class Americans are the same; 2) increased exports in anticipation of tariffs imposed in response to Trump's tariffs. If the trade war talk comes to naught in this quarter (especially with Europe), I expect to see a sharp fall in exports as a reaction.
The bulk of the growth is being supported by increased government spending. As a Keynsian, I would expect this when the economy is faltering, not advancing. And all this spending and tax cutting just adds to the deficit, which only 2 years ago the GOP told us was going to led to the ruination of the country. So Trump's deficits are good while Obama's are bad? Sorry but that doesn't compute.
11
Unless it is deli counter cash rester revenue, todays result is what was done 3-5 years ago.
6
@Scott
That's correct! By a republican congress and senate :-).
3
When GDP growth is sharply lower next quarter - and it will be - how will Trump spin it?
- Deep state machinations?
- Fake news?
- Economy taking a rest after the Trump miracle?
13
@Jack You just refuse to give President Trump any credit. You’re already jumping ahead to the next quarter assuming it’ll be bad.
4
@1truenorth - Not assuming, hoping it will be bad. Let America suffer as long as the Democratic Party comes first!
1
Significant wage growth here will be nearly impossible to attain until there is drastic wage growth in China and India.
2
Oh, come on being an economist as many commenting below appear to be.
On one hand - good, but on the other hand - could be better.
Enjoy this economy while it lasts.
You may not want to give POTUS credit now - but hope, you spare him some - if not all criticism - when things go south as they no doubt will.
It's all cyclical.
1
Did you feel that way when Obama had similar growth and employment?
1
A Trump economic boom is about as trustworthy as Trump himself. There is something going on here that has not yet been identified. Let's hope we find it before the economy sinks like a Trump casino.
17
What about trump's GDP? I hear it's up 300%. Goldman Sachs? 250%.
The rest of us? 4.1%
Small successes right trump voters?
4
My wife recently participated in her company's annual budget meeting. The CFO discussed their plans for the "coming downturn."
This is not a political statement. This is not wishing for a recession. Rather, it is a reflection of the reality that we are in the late cycle of the economic expansion. (Her company is headquartered in Birmingham, AL, and the executives are politically conservative and probably voted for Mr. Trump.)
The unemployment rate is down to 4.0% (recently 3.8%). The 10yr-2yr Treasury yield curve is flattening, and short-term interest rates will soon be higher than long-term rates (inversion). These economic indicators are typical of a late-cycle economy just prior to a recession. We will likely be in recession (probably a mild one) within a year or two. This would be true no matter who was president.
15
I think a booming economy is the best time to raise revenue for social programs we all need from those with money to spare. I would recommend increasing tax rates be based simply on how many hours a person works per week. If you don't work at all then no tax, if you put in 80 hours of work per week you should be at the highest tax bracket. Those who work 40 hours per week should be somewhere in the middle.
@DJ That makes absolutely no sense - whay incentive would that give for people to work hard and enjoy the fruits of their labor?
5
@DJ You might want to revisit the concepts of 'incentives' and 'disincentives' in your college Economics text.
3
I'm salaried so I get paid the same whether I work 40 or 80 hours.
1
G.D.P. is used to determine the health of the economy. If our economy is healthy why aren't our people healthy? We certainly have enough money for everyone in the U.S. to have their basic needs, including educational needs, met, and then some. The people who produce the wealth, the workers, are not compensated fairly for their work because the financial sector has lost accounting for what the real treasures are in this world; learning to love your neighbor, cultivating compassion and working for responsible policies that enhance human flourishing. Stealing the worth of peoples work to collect and sell trinkets, baubles and overpriced things creates income disparity which cannot be sustained or will be sustained through abusive words and actions by those who profit.
America has made itself ugly.
19
I see a lot of Trump supporters crowing about 4% growth, ignorantly not realizing that's merely one quarter's numbers, not ANNUAL. Let me know when Trump has an annual rate above 3%, or even a quarter as good as Obama's 5.2%.
14
Wait,who are we selling soybeans to? And is it sustainable?
1
It's interesting to look at the components of GDP to see how that 4.1% growth came about. We can do that by analyzing the contribution by component in Q2 '18, then compare it to the average contribution over the past few years:
2.7 Consumption by households
1.1 Net exports, boosted by fear of retaliatory tariffs
1.0 Non-residential investment (businesses)
0.4 Government spending
0.0 Residential investment (housing)
-1.0 Inventories
Equals 4.1%
When you compare these to the average for the Q1 '14 to Q1 '18 periods, three categories stand out:
Net exports: +1.5 vs. average (faux trade wars)
Consumption: +0.7 vs. average (tax cuts)
Government: +0.2 vs. average (extra spending)
Equals: +2.4
Add that +2.4 to the average growth of 1.8 during the period and you get roughly the 4.1.
5
I am 70 years old and over the last 50 years I have seen our Canadian economy grow at half the rate of that of the USA. Despite a growth rate of less than half our citizens have on average grown richer, healthier, better educated and more secure than their American counterparts. There is it seems something special about a shared prosperity and real democracy.
We have never elected a democratic socialist federal government but having a democratic socialist alternative has led to governments that have made sure that democratic socialist policies have made Canada a fairer, more just and more opportune place to live for Canadians who have not chosen the right parents. History informs me of the three million Irish peasants who failed to choose the right parents in the food rich Ireland during the food export boom of the 1845-1850 when neoliberalism was at its zenith. History tells us there was no food shortage in Ireland just a shortage of potatoes and an abundance of greed.
33
Here in the Democratic States of the American Continent we do not have an opportunity to choose our parents.
Interesting concept, but probably another reason why the USA is a much more democratic country than the Disparate American Colonies of Canada.
BTW President Trump was not responsible for the Irish Potato Crisis.
3
@RenegadePriest
Trump is not responsible for the worship at the Temple of Economic Growth as the most important of human activities. Trump is doing more for Canada than the dance Reagan and Mulroney performed back in the 80s. I have always supported Trump because it was way overdue that we were thrown out of the nest.
I hope Trump works for you , I wish you nothing but success and as Montreal Moe and now moi I have sung the same song for at least ten years.
We are a satellite economy but as a Canadian we belong with peer economies with the same values and ethics. I have long advocated a Nafta style union with the Scandinavian countries who share our cold and our mutual reliance. I support a Canadian American relationship like that of Finland and Russia.
I think the USA will end up with a much flatter society like Russia because Trump's supporters will demand it but I hope my grandchildren when they reach 70 will sleep much sounder. Somehow the belief in the God given innate ability of the 1% seems to give a more harmonious society than one built on conservative lies and myths.
If you think today's quarterly report made your conservatives giddy I was positively manic with today's trip to the supermarket although they were sold out of Spanish peaches and nectarines and I can't afford New Jersey peaches I am firing up the barbecue for Canadian sirloin cheaper than last week's American hamburger.
Obviously we've hit an economic sweet spot.
But the trade war can't be judged quarter by quarter. The ultimate goal is to prevent China from continuing to unfairly rig the system, even if that causes short-term pain.
6
The Trump economy appears to be hot but maybe not. Agree with 4th quarter diagnosis. The sleepy bear may have awoken again today, browsing quietly on the periphery of the FAANG sector, the slowly nibble on the heels of good economic number releases, like GDP that preserve optimism. So many doomsday (stock, real estate, gold bugs) prognosticators have kicked the can down the road this past week, creating a "take notice "countertrend indicator for turbulence ahead. Sleepy bears often awake amidst flowery fields of dreamy landscapes, as they shinny down from the tree tops. The public mood will be interesting to watch in November regarding stocks, purchasing power, and consumer sentiment.
2
Look at the graph. Smooth out the noise. I think what we see is the Obama recovery continuing.
23
thanks for letting us know large companies, investment businesses and banks made a haul this last quarter.
How are wages doing compared with the rising cost of consumer goods and services? Is the country out of boot-straps?
55
don the con causes a market crisis with tariffs.
buyers rush to buy commodities before the price goes up
don the con crows about how his "plans" are working
next quarter: same markets plunge because of the pre-purchased commodities
and still the sheep of the base baaaaaaaaaaa
52
Oh so this quarter means nothing, you want to criticize the next quarter long before there is an economic report on it?
Sorry that you shorted the market in advance and lost big time.
1
I'll take 3-5% GDP growth. This result is good for us. Problem is without wage growth, consumer spending can't increase. Get people spending (without taking loans out) instead of paying off their debt, then we can see this sustained.
12
Common folk have credit cards and high interest rate loan shops to help them spend their future inadequate income. Meanwhile, we will monetize their debt and make nice profits off them.
Neither Trump nor his supporters know this (although THEY should at least, being from the South), but raw-materials purchasing is up for the same reason people clean out grocery stores before a hurricane.
42
And when the rush to re-supply raw materials ends, because no one is making or buying anything, well, that's when the Second Great Depression begins.
4
Of course these numbers are trumpeted by President Trump but to me it sounds like "fake news". No need to say anything else.
7
I'm not surprised the quarter was good. Against Marie Kondo's advice, many of my purchases have been stock piling of everyday items that I use, as well as some foreign items, to avoid Trump tariffs. Others have probably done the same. Of course, when the GDP wavers in Q3, it'll all be Dasterdly Obama's fault.
14
Hey...has anyone seen Paul Krugman? He called Trump's prediction of 4% growth "unlikely"--and based on false assumptions.
On February 2018, Krugman wrote:
"GDP grew 3.4 percent annually under Reagan; it grew 3.7 percent annually under Clinton (shhh — don’t tell conservatives.) But there are fundamental reasons to believe that such growth is unlikely to happen now".
For a full accounting of all the false predictions, readers can peruse Krugman's column.
https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/02/18/trumps-rosy-scenario/
Perhaps Krugman can come out of hiding to address his predictive powers (or lack thereof)--and also explain why the stock market did not crash--as he predicted upon Trump's election win. While he's at it, he can address other follies--such as encouraging the Obama Administration to do a trillion dollar stimulus plan--and how he's been encouraging the Japanese to do likewise--for the past 2 (lost) decades.
Calling Paul Krugman! Calling Paul Krugman! Please tell us again--how capitalism doesn't really work--and howcentrally planned economies, with lots of socialist programs, work better.
15
@Jesse The Conservative He did write a few weeks ago that this quarter would be large and why no one should be surprised. But he also cautioned that the number would be large because of the tariffs and places like China would stock up. This article points that out and most economists agree.
18
@Jesse The Conservative I guess you don't understand the difference between QUARTERLY growth and annual? Let me know when TRump hits 4% ANNUAL gdp. Or when he has a 5.2 % quarter as Obama did in 2014.
15
@Jesse The Conservative
Paul Krugman and his fellow economists have taught us how to grow an economy that gives no thought to the general welfare. Fifty five years of steady growth is real but America may not have a future. Economics is far less important than a belief in the future and I hope hope Krugman is doing some reading of philosophers like Canada's John Ralston Saul during his time off. Krugman calls himself a liberal because he believes economic growth will create a better future for all of us. America is proof that conservatism (neoliberalism) is a disaster not only for much of America but for our species and its welfare.
2
The reports have been misleading because there are many people working multiple jobs just to make ends meet. That is not what I would consider a strong economy, unless we are going to accept that everyone works 80 hours per week to achieve it.
18
Our great leader is winning BIG. I say we elect him president for life.
6
I would rather stick needles in my eyes.
3
And if he decides to declare himself president for life...who’s gonna stop him?
@BM: I will. Personally. Relentlessly. And, without reservation. It happens to be my country too.
"Confluence of events unlikely to occur?" You explain it by every "event" except the advent of Donald Trump ! He did it, thank you!
9
If i borrow 50,000 i can spend it for a year. After that i will have to pay back the money with interest. All i will be left with is credit card bills. If i pay it all of i would have lost money overall,in interest.The gop tax plan just borrowed money , lots of it,that will have to be paid back. It is being spent now, on future borrowings from our kids and grandkids which is totally reckless and irresponsible. Our kids and grandkids will be left with the bills while trump and the gop boast.
15
And deplorable people continue to vote for them.
5
Just think of all the growth we'll have when corporate taxes are removed entirely and the free market magic really kicks in!
1
And... the workers' income also arose 4.1 %? or all the increase went to the billionaires' pockets?
I bet the last happened.
23
The 3rd quarter numbers will be in well before the election. What are you going to do if it drops? Which it will. Probably back in the 2's.
6
Second longest stock market bull run in history. Much like the rest of Trump’s life, he inherited it. From his daddy.
And as before, let’s all watch mouth agape as he ruins it in epic fashion. Trump would be out of his depth running any sort of legit company, let alone stewarding the world’s largest economy. The ill-conceived corporate tax cuts are yet another mess someone else will need to clean up.
45
This reminds me of the wondful boon that W’s neocon economy offered after a period of time in office, right before the housing crisis. Feels like we just climbed out of that. The conservative trickle down, scorched earth budget always glows brightest right before the bulb bursts.
12
Things are better partly due to the hard work Obama did to fix the economy Bush left him. I also suspect that under Trump corporations are investing more for the simple reason that they 'feel' better, especially after sitting on so much cash for 8 years.
Let's look at some elements of this 'super' economy.
An early act was approval of a pipeline which had created much controversy. It was owned by one of his biggest donors. When it leaks, who pays for that?
As education receives less public support, we are creating a two tiered system in which the children of the rich get better education and employment opportunities than the poor. We will create a permanent two tiered society.
Tho employed full time, some people cannot make ends meet because wages are so low. With reduced health care and environmental regulations many will develop health problems which worsen due to lack of early detection and treatment. Those costs are not reflected in current statistics.
The next administration will have to clean up all these problems.
Just like Obama after Bush.
13
Today's news here compared to today's stock market trajectory shows so clearly that the stock market is not the economy.
After today the moderately aggressive portfolio I had at the end of 2017 will likely be valued at about 1% more. My enthusiasm for all things Trump is non-existent. Cui bono?
7
@Bruce Michel If you only pulled in 1% return over the course of the past year, the issue is your investment choices. That's pretty terrible.
Four more years!
3
It would be really great for the US to have Trump serve two terms. Consecutive prison terms, one for obstruction of justice and the other for conspiracy.
19
When I had economics in college, it was pointed out that there is a lag time of three to six months from when a government economic policy is initiated and when it has an effect on the economy.
So, Trump cannot take credit for any increase in the economy. His policies are only just beginning to have an effect.
But considering that he is repeating the economic policies of the George W. Bush administration; huge tax cuts that favor the wealthy and increase the yearly deficit and national debt, deregulation - we can trust Wall Street, the banks, and business to police themselves; the result will be the same.
Within six to eight years, there will be another severe recession, making the last one look like prosperity, and with the one and a half trillion dollars plus added to the national debt, there will be very little the government will be able to do to remedy it.
9
Good point. I hope the rich buy more guns instead of gold plated toilets.
Enjoy liberals. If this keeps up going to be hard on that "blue wave" you're expecting in November. Spin all you want.
5
I tell you what Dave. If GDP hits over 4% in Q3, I vow I will vote Republican. but I feel pretty assured that I will be voting Democrat in November, because Q2 results are nothing but smoke and mirrors.
6
“The bottom line is that the economy is doing better,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist for the accounting firm Grant Thornton.
As a psychologist, this is reminds me of gauging "intelligence," as measured by IQ tests.
The "economy," as measured by the GDP, how the stock market is doing, what financial analysts say who work for financial firms is not a fair or good indicator of how well the economy is working for most Americans.
Admittedly, some effort was made by the Times in this article to temper the "enthusiasm," especially by Trump, over our "booming economy."
So meanwhile, the U.S. GD∏P may be up, but the Gini Index for the US. as a measure in inequality, is rising on the side of inequality. Also, the U.S. ranks poorly on our distribution of wealth, relative to other "advanced countries," where the Scandinavian and many European nations rank much lower on inequality.
The U.S, economy may be way up for the wealthy and many corporations that benefit the most from those unnecessary Trump tax cuts (that skyrocket the deficit and are phased out for the middle class but not the rich).
By contrast, the median income has stagnated for the middle classes. Americans working for "minimum wage" do not have a livable income. The cost of housing in a number of cities is out of reach for many working Americans. Health care costs are the highest in the world, highly inequitable, and the prospects for our children's future getting worse.
Curb your enthusiasm NYT
8
This such great news that the market is tanking. I wonder why? Ans: it doesn’t mean squat.
2
If President prior to Trump had proposed a three to seven TRILLION dollar stimulus package over ten years to get our economy going, fiscal Conservatives would have screamed bloody murder; however, they have no problem whatsoever when this giveaway comes in the form of tax cuts which will balloon our Federal deficit as these reductions in revenue have not been offset by cuts in spending. Yes, our economy is doing better as it is being pump-primed via what is essentially Federal spending. Meanwhile, Trump is working to destroy our real economy i.e. the one that involves the actual exchange of goods and services. Apparently, there's no need to worry about this as if he cannot help those negatively impacted by his idiocy with another tax cut, then how about a twelve BILLION dollar bailout complements of good ole Uncle Sam. Who's counting anyway?
15
@Bill Garrot
Remember socialism of the democratic kind is very bad for America but socialism of the more national kind is what the GOP is all about.
7
Almost as good as Obama’s 2nd qtr of 2014 which was 4.6 gdp
23
I trust the 3rd quarter numbers come out before the midterm elections to show this one-time flash as a result of Trumps chaotic "policies" which we all know by now aren't policies at all but knee jerk reactions to any number of stimuli.
Trump inherited an excellent economy fro the Obama administration, then proceeded to screw it up with increasing the deficit with his crony tax reductions. Wages are still significantly behind, 4% of the population own 87% of the stock market, the flyover states and West Virginia are worse off financially, the housing market is tanking, all indicators Trump has screwed up the free lunch he inherited.
Examine history. The only GOP president that didn't crash the economy was Dwight Eisenhower; a man that didn't avoid military service, didn't lie, didn't break-in to DNC headquarters, didn't erase tapes, didn't exchange arms for the Iranian hostages or triple the deficit , didn't ask us to read his lips, didn't lie to the US citizens into a war that killed in excess of 5500 of our youth while avoiding service altogether by 'enlisting' in the Texas Air Guard, a phantom organization.
4
@LaPine - thanks
An item I would add to your list of Ike's qualities: He began construction of the interstate highway system, an act of true 'vision' - We invested money in the future, money which did not yield an immediate return. We created work building roads, home construction and the auto industry. It spanned decades under administrations of both parties. I honestly am not a fan of the sprawl this created, but that is beside the point. As this growth slowed down America became complacent. Since the 80's, the only real growth was in military spending and dot com. 'Vision' has been reduced to the next quarterly report. One opportunity for this is alternate energy, but the oil industry has made too many in congress into their lackeys. Perhaps it is still not too late.
7
I have a small business here in NYC. The books have been up and down and all over the place. Our customers for the first time ever have been asking
for prices on everything. They spend just enough and no more. They also use more cash by the weeks end
as opposed to credit cards. Tips are right on the mark and never above.
From direct conversations they tell me they have
“Saved up” to come into our business. We have also
seen “regulars” less frequently. My take is that customers are faced with serious questions about their economic position: a future of uncertainty and of making less take home pay while health cost have increased, education cost has sky rocketed, transportation is getting more expensive, gas is almost $3.00 a gallon, housing, utilities and rent has gone up substantially, consumer Items cost more, food cost more (15%), essentials cost more, going out to restaurants cost more and even basic banking has been more costly, not to mention the troubling lending practices that banks are back to using.
Even Mr. Song knows that the truth is that the tax cuts greatly increased the cash flow to wealthy consumers, corporations and large shareholders and only gave crumbs to the rest of us. And that if the
cost of gas goes up to $4 a gallon that alone will
wipe-out the small gains that the average citizen/ consumer received from this inane republican tax giveaway. This economy is heading in the wrong direction. Its an economy that has lots of shadows
and dark holes.
12
Trump Trickle Down Theory. Most of the money stays at the top. A meager portion flows down to the people who need it and then, they have to share it with everyone else at the bottom.
4
@SenDan I agree, living in urban centers is expensive. And there is no end in sight and unfortunately, expense in these areas will be higher. Housing cost is the main culprit for higher living expenses.
The delivery of public services (the list of items you mentioned) and employment opportunities are higher in urban areas than in suburban and rural areas and are population magnets because of it.
But consider the following, there are urban centers which are horribly under valued. Ohio, Michigan, Missouri for example have excellent urban centers with superb infrastructure which could accommodate much higher population numbers. These urban centers have a healthy and reasonably priced housing stock and efficient delivery of services.
You presume that a place of residence is static. The truth is, people move and they should. Yes, capitalism is a destructive force, but it is also a constructive force and land is the ultimate recyclable item.
The "amazing" growth Trump has stated has not translated into wage growth for a vast majority of America. Middle class wages have been stagnant for almost two decades. A recent study revealed millennials earned on the average of $30,000 dollars a year in 1978 and today that figured has not changed. So don't be fooled by these "amazing" economic numbers. Look at your own situation and ask if your family is better off today than two years ago. Reality dictates the big winners are Trump and the 1% courtesy of middle class taxpayers.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/15/for-the-biggest-g...
6
If Trump wants to own this good news about the economy, then he needs to prepare himself to own the economy when it's not doing as well. I am no economist, but I have lived long enough to know that no president has exclusive responsibility for the rise and fall of an economy and that history suggests--in spite of popular belief--that Democrats do a far better job of managing the economy than Republicans do. In fact, the pattern has often been that the Republicans muck things up with their favoring of business interests and rich friends and the Democrats usually have to step in an clean up the GOP's messes.
10
Amazing how the wealthiest people still don't think it's enough to rake in millions of dollars annually, pay less taxes, ship money overseas so they don't have to pay taxes... but they think that their employees who make $40-50 K a year, pay for their health benefits, and pay taxes aren't struggling.
3
@SNA
But we must admit that the Democrats are in trouble!
With this good economic news, it will be very hard for them to take the House in November.
I suggest the Democrats hold "idea contests" to find the very best campaign ideas and techniques to compete in this election, for control of the House.
My fear is that we are fast becoming a US of T, a United States of Trump, a monarchy, a dictatorship, or sorts.
If the economy looks so good, this will surely encourage other nations to abandon democracy, in favor to Fascistic dictatorship.
Trump has a fasci-nation with a fascist-nation idea?
======================================
1
@SNA
"then he needs to prepare himself to own the economy when it's not doing as well"
HA! You're dreaming! He'll blame everyone but himself, including the co-heads of the "Deep State", James Comey & Hillary Clinton.
4
The economy is growing for someone, but not too many in the middle class. Who has gotten a real raise, while everything becomes more expensive? Layoffs are starting, too many work without benefits. It is tiring to read that things are great when the middle class knows they aren't. I don't believe that Trump can wreck the economy on his own, or that he would choose to do this. There are vast forces which continue to hurt the middle class in America who profit at the expense of the ordinary worker, and these GDP statistics reflect this reality. The middle class is growing in places like China. Why there, not here? Media needs to conduct a fair analysis and inform voters rather than simply writing headlines that mean too little. The public needs to know why salaries are flat more than they need to know about marital infidelity and other bits of less than newsworthy news.
5
What about the future costs of superfund cleanups due to the elimination of environmental regulations? I guess our kids and grandkids will be required to pay for those...
9
I believe the people are the best judge of how things are going. America's economy has grown at twice that of Canada or any other developed nation for over 5 decades. I have lived on both sides of the border. Fifty five years ago America had the highest standard of living in the world, the best education, the best infrastructure, the most optimistic populace and Canadians like myself were looking to migrate.
Republican and Democratic economic policy of low taxes and small government works for a large segment of the population but it has been a disaster for America and unless you can find a way to separate the successful from the not so successful the world is in big trouble.
We have sacrificed growth for general welfare and we now have longer healthier lives, we are better educated, we have a higher standard of living and we are more optimistic.
Neoliberalism is a much better word than conservative because Barrack Obama and Bill Clinton were far more successful at growing the economy than Reagan or Bushes but the growth in the economy is a poor indicator of success.
Low taxes and small government has been a disaster, the slogan Make America Great Again brings us back to a time when 90% tax on the highest income earners and a government invested in welfare, education and infrastructure made America the model for the future.
America gets an A+ in economic growth but an F in promoting internal democracy the economy is not a problem. You need psychologists not economists.
15
Explode the deficit and nominal GDP growth responds. John Maynard Keynes would not be surprised. Obama should have been more aggressive with deficit spending in 2009 when the economy was on it back.
Next question is what happens when the sugar high wears off. Don't see anything to indicate that business investment is up. Interest rates will continue to increase, and the Fed may be more aggressive than before now. With the chaos in trade, this relative high point has the chance to devolve into the next recession very quickly.
10
Well what about the thousands and thousands of Americans who aren't getting anything out of this: not better pay, not better jobs, no jobs, can't find affordable housing, still can't afford decent medical care, have loans to pay off, etc.? We keep on hearing how well the economy is doing but we're not getting any of the benefits no matter what we do.
This is a Potemkin economy: it looks great on the face of it but that's a mask for the rot underneath that includes overcompensation of CEOs, deliberate underpayment of workers, the inability of most Americans to deal with an emergency, a job loss, or anything that disrupts their weekly pay. And for those us unable to find jobs for whatever reason, things are not improving at all.
At this point the America the politicians, pundits, and economists are talking about is not the America most of us are living in. Maybe the roads in DC and rich parts of cities and towns are in one piece. Maybe the rich don't get terrible customer service. Perhaps they can afford to be ill, to miss a day's work, to take a nice vacation but a lot of us can't. Until the people who want to work and have skills can find jobs that pay decently it's not a good economy for all Americans. It's great for the Koch Brothers, the Adelsons, etc. but not most of us.
8
The 2nd and 3rd quarter GDP increases in 2014 during Obama's 2nd term were both bigger than the one announced today.
Does anyone remember Republicans declaring that our economy was roaring back then?
Me either.
49
GDP is a measure of spending. Did the President spend all that money himself? Was it the government that purchased all the goods and services? No! It was consumers domestic and foreign.
Tax cuts are great but companies aren't going to hire more people just because they got a tax break, it takes a sustained increase in demand to justify hiring more people and adding plant and equipment.
Trump can happy-talk himself all he, and his apologists, want to but he is not in control of the economy anymore than King Kunute was in charge of the tides.
7