Oh man! So, there's water on Mars? How do I relocate there?
54
Heck why waste time Vote Stacy Abrams for Pres in 2020!
14
Bret, you devil. Many NY Times readers will be sleeping with the lights on tonight.
70
This column reminds me of the novel Fatherland.
7
Is horrific as this nightmare is, I don't dispute that it is possible.
Nixon won his second election. Investigations into Watergate were already underway but had yet to catch the attention of the public. People just didn't care - until they did.
Sorry, I don't believe the attention surrounding Trump's many ethical breaches is a red herring. Really you have to ask yourself: "Do I think Trump is corrupt?" for those of us living in reality, the answer is "yes."
It has been documented that Trump never thought he would actually win (along with most of the rest of us). Does that suggest to you that Trump would have been more or less cavalier with his ethics running up to the election? Probably less right?
Did Trump surround himself with paragons of morality and competent advisors? To the contrary, he surrounded himself with a rogues gallery of amateur yes men and women hoping to cash in on the implausible rise of this moron.
My point is this: the Mueller investigation is far from over and all indications are that some pretty evil and illegal things occurred. It is possible that the American people will eventually wise-up to Trump. But only possible.
49
For once I am enthusiastically shouting "FAKE NEWS!"
31
Mitch Landrieu can beat him.
9
The best article ever published by The New York Times except for those in the Cooking section
40
Nyt 2020 Obituary: Due to lack of health care America died. Bankrupt and without friends. Cremation services will be held in Moscow.
75
Brilliant!
17
Spot on, brilliant piece
15
I just hope the Democrats find a candidate with chutzpah. Being clever, intelligent knowledgeable has become irrelevant, absolutely useless. Elizabeth Warren? She's too left and will reach only a small subset of people. Who's Brown? Just like who was Dean? There is someone who has it all - Joe Biden! Who can resist that goofy smile and his intellect camouflaged in folksy humor? He is Bill Clinton without the sleaze. And ready for a showdown any time. The Democrats are waylaid by boring candidates. It is all about being the winner, stupid!
29
Not gonna happen. The days of the whimpy, turn-the-other-cheek democrats are over. The election of Trump was a tough lesson learned. Watch out cult, Russia, etc.!
24
This piece is a textual version of Lucy's football. We are very earnest, we Democrats. But, please, don't take the bait.
7
What a depressing commentary.
20
Democrats should nail this column to the sticking post and consult it frequently. Stop sneering at people who live in the "flyover states." They will decide your future.
89
Unfortunately, the thesis of your little piece is uncomfortably on the mark. And I say that with no little unease.
29
La dee da. Let's let Trumpsky (the Russian sympathizer) defeat himself. Will he do anything about the staggering national debt? Of course not. How can we even pretend to talk about the economy helping to get him re elected when the elephant in the room (and I'm not even mentioning the $1T addition to the deficit) is our national debt. The tax cut was insane. Surely we can hoist this guy out of office by his extra long necktie.
12
How can he run from prison?
18
The only criterion for the Dem 2020 prez candidate should be Can this person win? It is long past time to just STOP IT with the second-guessing, purity vows, and angels-on-the-head-of-a-pin nonsense. Left vs center vs moderate right? Irrelevant. Age? Irrelevant. Policy chops? Irrelevant. Qualifications? Irrelevant ... utterly irrelevant. Oprah, Michael Avenatti, Beyonce, John Kasich, Van Jones, Kanye, Jeb!, I do not care. Pick someone who can win. Period.
39
Bret Stephens took the words out of my mouth! This is exactly what I’ve been saying to fellow liberals who all seem to be laboring under what can only be described as wishful thinking of the most magical sort. I see no credible challenge to Trump coming from the Democratic Party, where everyone seems to be completely out of touch with what most people are really concerned about. Hundreds of column inches of ink and buckets of outrage regarding the Russians, emoluments, immigrants and Michael Cohen (to name just the latest news-grabbers) mean nothing compared to a few well-placed Supreme Court nominations, inaction on guns and systematic dismantling of the rules that actually protect our society. Trump’s people are more solidly for him than ever, consequences (to anyone - themselves included) be damned, and they’re bringing their man back! We can only hope that he doesn’t get to mess with term limits, so we only have to suffer eight years of this. Of course, between the Supreme Court, the EPA, Europe, China and Russia he will have done enough damage to last at least a generation - hopefully the Democrats can at least get busy planning on trying to build all that social capital back up over the next 30 years!
14
Very depressing ,but alas very probable. Hillary did not have a message beyond "it is my time" and I question if the Democrat's have found a retort to Trump. So sad !!!!!!!
18
And then you awoke from your nightmare and laughed to yourself as your recalled Gavin wiping the floor with Trump.
"How many business busts Donald? Affairs when married?, washing Russian Money?, and blowing world trade all for a tax cut you knew would not buy you out of your chaos".
"And now, we'll be struggling just to keep Medicare for our parents, let alone expand it. So we need to raise funds that don't require messing with your sham Tax cut for all."
" We need to skim funds seamlessly from the velocity of money. No exceptions, no exemptions, with a near invisible baloney slice of 2 tenths of one percent of EVERY funds transfer. Banks, brokerage houses, international transfers; $ 2K from every $2M. And any one earning less than $200K gets a $200 refund. "
"No exceptions, no exemptions will kill the lobbyists, and the Citizens united efforts. Our multi-trillion dollar economy recycles every dollar 11 times. And the funds will first close up the deficit and start filling up the dept enough to Keep America Great again. No new programs till we take the Trump financial wreck off the rocks. Democrats typically spend only to build up the contry, the Republicans often wreck it."
-well one can dream too-m
6
Utter nonsense, Mr. Stephens...
By this time next year, we will have sold a twenty percent interest in Facebook to the Russians (to go along with their original ten percent or so) in return for Red-nation female politicos agreeing to spend $145M on Ivanka Trump luxury wares - and posting early and often how good and decadent the stuff makes them feel...
Armed with such investment mandate and social influence, Putin will see to it that Jill Stein rules our fair nation during our demisemimillenial (aka 7/4/26) - in the fairest presidential election ever, on either side of the Bering...
I’m being completely straight with you (sorry, my head was going to explode if I didn’t let it out)
Word will be spread that Elizabeth Warren is not only not 1/32 Cherokee - she is, in fact, a 9/8 Norwegian who emigrated here on a visa Trump personally signed off on...
(actually, Cohen signed it for him)…
If that does not turn the electorate, fabulism about her being 1/32 a clone of Hillary Clinton will go more viral than Trump-Putin presser highlights, and more nervy than a perfumer of Novichok...
Amazing how quickly the climate can change – if it’s man-made…
And bigly...
6
Brilliant! Prophetic. Any of those on the current Democrat "bench" of screaming, scolding, morally indignant candidates who only run on "Beat Trump" are not persons to vote FOR!
Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown. OMG. Biggest Yawn. But. Highly probable. Trump gets re-elected exactly as you've outlined.
39
I can only hope you are wrong!
12
If : 1) A candidate publicly implores Russians to hack his opponents server and expose her emails, and 2) the Russians begin hacking the DNC server within 24 hours, eventually making Clinton's emails public, then this is collusion. It is a treasonable offense to invite a foreign power to interfere in a US election. A special prosecutor is not required. It is all entirely apparent. No investigation is required. QED
9
Speculative fiction makes for Summer fun!
2
Hate to tell you this Bret Stephens but Trump is going down in flames before 2020, His corruptions will catch up with him before that, and the backlash from non-white, young, and diverse voters will be fast and furious. Nice fantasy for you perhaps, but hopefully, not a reality for the rest of us.
8
Chlling. And entirely possible.
7
Brilliant, and likely very prescient.
10
Depressing -- and entirely credible.
Enough GOP voters have made clear that they don't care about Trump's moral failings. They like that he delivered on crippling Obamacare, cut taxes and nominated rock hard conservatives to the Supreme Court. Barring an unforeseen economic calamity or bumbling into a disastrous war, 2020 is Trump's to lose.
8
Um, has anyone taken into consideration that President Trump might be the first American president to lose reelection with an okay economy?
3
The only way the Democrats will return to power is only after the bill for Trump comes due. It will happen once the debt explodes, the individual insurance market collapses, and the environmental problems become harder to ignore. Instead of yelling about Trump, we need to be forthright, clear and direct about what’s going on without wishing for things to go wrong.
5
Some great points, but I think he has seriously misunderestimated Elizabeth Warren. I’m not a yoog fan but I think she could bring it.
5
I see Trump's reelection as probable. If we Democrats want to win the presidency we will need to run a "natural politician" who goes to Wisconsin and enjoys eating cheese curds.
4
In my opinion, most of the horrible things that Democrats say about Donald Trump are true. But, Democratic candidates don’t seem to be showing any interest in the legitimate issues that Trump’s supporters are responding to. Americans are big fans of immigration and immigrants, but they also want secure borders and an end to illegal immigration. They want a fair tax system, with an end to loopholes for the well connected, but they don’t want to steal from successful people. They want a level playing field with respect to imports and exports instead of a system where politicians pick winners and losers. In short, they want America to be “the land of opportunity,” not the land of entitlements.
Trump doesn’t deliver on any of this, but he promises all of it. And that’s more than the selfish powermongerers who run both of our political parties do.
If the Democrats win in 2018 and 2020, it will be in spite of their policies, not because of them.
23
“I don’t care if he lies or exaggerates in his tweets or breaks his vows to his wife, so long as he keeps his promises to me,” Leah Rownan, a self-described social conservative from Henderson, Nev., told The Times, citing the economy and Mr. Trump’s Supreme Court nominations as decisive for her vote. “And he has.”
This says it all. How shallow trump voters are and willing to only react to the tune of "what in my wallet Donald." Zero values about what he is doing to this country beyond their own pockets or court appointee. When the next market crash happens and it is coming and all the deficit spending along with his lunacy tariffs will these Elmer Gantry types realize they paid a big price for their entry into the great Carnaval Barker's tent.
2
Very funny!
Your piece tries to persuade Dems to not run on popular issues like universal healthcare or free tuition therefore making them crowd the center and loose even harder because the only decision factor determining the election will be the DOW.
No, the Dems actually should follow GOPs example and stick to their guns listening to their base. It shows integrity and consistency. Voters like that.
Being wishy-washy and cuddle with big banks and Wall Street while claiming you are for the poor and middle class, like Hillary did, will result in the same failure.
And quite sincerely, I think that not the voters but Trump's own corruption will chase him out of office. I see him ending like Bernie Madoff.
4
News Headline: November 2020
In the first Presidential election held since the National Compact came into effect, Elizabeth Warren has been elected President by a clear majority of the votes. The nation breathed a sign of relief that the will of the voters determined the outcome of the election.
2
Here's another possibility. After a brusing trade war that crashed the stock markets to the lowest prices they had ever been, the newly elected Democratic president presented a carbon copy of the FDR programs enacted in the 40's to the Democratic senate who passed them with applause from the gallery in 2020.
6
Don't kid yourselves folks. This scenario is entirely plausible.
Folks either love this man (DJT) or love what they believe he's done for the country and the economy. There's nothing to say that it will all blow up before Nov. 2020.
And even if the economy goes south and the president's sordid scandals continue, there's really not much the Democratic Party is doing to attract people in rural and small town America that still commands a huge chunk of voting power.
I'm appalled and disgusted by the president as anyone, but loopy slogans to "end" ICE (as opposed to reforming its enforcement priorities) only feeds into Fox News and Breitbart's efforts to convince Republican voters that Democrats are out-of-touch and literally want "Open Borders."
Honestly, Mr. Stevens is right. Democrats may very well lose in 2020 (and under perform in 2018) if all they really agree on is how much they hate Donald Trump.
16
Trump will be in prison and not able to vote, much less run.
At least he should be.
The question is, on which of his many crimes. Wait: ALL of the above.
2
Thanks Bret. Unlike many who dread this prediction of 2020 and/or see it as a 'warning', I see your column as speaking clear. 2016 wasn't about the 'what'. It was about the 'how'. Trump = 'honesty', not that he doesn't lie, but his lies are his truth as opposed to being HRC fraudulent. Trump = 'destroy the deep state'. All of the sniping, whining, and outrage on the left confirms he is doing the job. Trump = 'getting the US what it deserves'. All of the economists (and perhaps half the economic indicators) and political commentators that rail against his trade war tactics and cozying up to autocrats are weak intellectuals. We needed a gunslinger in the white house and Trump has been that gunslinger.
And what do the dems have? Tax the rich, give to the poor, to keep them needy having to beg for their welfare, their healthcare and their education from big daddy government. And don't forget to share the US wealth with the world via immigration even though it costs our own their lives and livelihoods.
Nope, Bret is right. IF there is another message that will reassure the left AND center and create even a shred of doubt on the right, something has to change for as of now I just don't see how anything is different between 2016, 2018 and soon to be 2020. Robin Hood anyone?
6
I believe this article to be a wake up call to the Democrats.
Come up with a new strategy or face the consequences in 2020.
13
If you think your essay is going to wake the Democrats up, think again. They let Trump sucker them into playing his game of insult-hurling in 2016. They never listened to the part of their base that does not like their amnesty-forever immigration policy and their identity politics. They never saw the real needs of the working class, middle class and working (or unworking) poor, and the sick. They still don't.
17
This scenario is not an option....as it will signal the complete and utter death-of-truth, and with it most of the potential inherent in the "experiment in democracy" that WAS the United States of America.
7
Not sure which language I should earn, russian or chinese.
While I ponder that big problem, I'll just have to bide my time and be subject to alternative facts and one lie after the other. But, I will be the first one in line to vote in November.
5
The best way to fight against Trump is to embrace the American values. This land is still the land of opportunities, although opportunities only come to those who are prepared. The can-do spirit is still alive and well in startups and small businesses. Socialism will never work because of human nature. Tell me how many people really enjoy working?
Liberals must be living in their own universe. They are so out of touch with real people. Why should tax payers pay tuitions for young people who just want to party? At least we should demand GPA of 3.5 and above. Also they should do community service for two years in exchange for free tuitions. When you provide free lunch, people will lose movitivstions and they will want to depend more on government.
Speaking of immigrantion, this country and the white majority are the most generous. They are watching the demographic change right in front of their eyes. They were not consented.
Finally, the best way moving forward is to build a true meritocratic system and the system must be color-blind. Both affirmative action and legacy should be abolished. Segregation is part of the solution too.
4
This is the reason a majority of Democrats are clueless:
Every single Republican would sell their mother. Every single one. Not, necessarily, for the highest price either...
The Republican party is united in their view on selling their mom. They would, of course, sell their dad too, if the price was right. How can you stand up to a party that doesn't care what you think? Never really did... The Republicans are united and the numbers prove this.
Democrats? A gaggle of people of different colors, shapes and views. A party that seem to be trying to move in seven different directions... All at the same time. Most Democrats have nothing to united them. Yes, they hate Trump....Most Republicans hate Trump. The Dems barely even talk with each other... unless their is some "crisis" that threatens their view on life or the hike of coffee at Starbucks...
How can you vote for a party that supports issues you just don't care that much about anymore?
4
If President Trump had been using marijuana illegally, the left wouldn't care. If he was an alcoholic or a drug addict, the left would say that he has an illness and should be forgiven. Well, with all of this "Defining deviancy down" mentality, is it any wonder that nobody cares that (many years ago) Trump cheated on his wife, or paid money to a porn star? Nothing he has done is a crime and it is all old news. It has nothing to do with the policies that he is pursuing. If people agree with the policies, they don't care about anything else.
10
"...no clear evidence of collusion between Mr. Trump and Moscow ever emerged and the president was never indicted."
collusion is not a crime, bret.
6
something is whispering in my ear about counting chickens when all I have a a bunch of egg.
1
Thanks for another opportunity to indulge depression. The more inevitable it all seems, the more inertia you press onto voters, and the more likely your pronouncement becomes true. If that is your goal then congratulations. If you were aiming for constructive democratic dialogue, perhaps you should take another swing...
1
Ah...finally a concrete example of fake news in The New York Times I can cite!
Just wondering, is Mr. Stephens angling for a job in The White House? This column should do the trick. Now if someone could just read this out loud to Trump or reduce it to two bullet points (kinda like how the NRA likes to do it) and the FBI can start doing a background check on Stephens.
They'll fast-track it so he's in place by the time the first set of convictions are in place and Trump has run out of cherry bombs to toss about in desperate diversion.
Mr. Stephens may not find comfort in this but it seems the anointed sure winner these days usually ends up losing, for whatever reason. So, sure Trump has a lock on a second term if Stephens says so.
In a separate report today in The Times about Facebook's market collapse, the biggest ever for one company, most of the growth in the market over the past year comes from just 5 tech behemoths -- Apple/Alphabet/Google/Facebook/Netflix/Amazon. All face great uncertainty going forward -- Apple, Google and Amazon will be hit hard by the trade war with China, along with mature markets and financial instability as interest rates, commodities, energy prices grow volatile.
If Stephens thinks the market is Trump's friend going into 2020, he forgets what happens to Trump's friends is usually what you wouldn't wish on your worst enemies.
Stephen worked on editorials at the WSJ, not financial news or analysis. Now we know why.
5
Who foresaw the financial crisis of 2008 in the summer of 2006? In the postwar period, we are approaching the longest expansion ever. Although expansions do not die of old age, as economists have said, the odds are better than not that the economy will be in recession in 2020, or that we will just be climbing out of one. It may or may not be Trump's fault, but this prediction is based, first of all, on a continuing boom. How long can unemployment stay at 4% or below? It's never been that long. . .
1
People not understanding economies don't get destroyed or saved a day after a new policy is introduced has been a major misleading factor for voters. DOW doesn't get to 30,000 from 0 in two years.
An example from Turkey: A lack of understanding of this hysteresis is what allowed for Erdogan to come to power in 2002. The economic policies adopted by the left-led coalition were kept by the Erdogan regime for the first term, which ended up improving the economy*. But the leader of the nationalist party, despite being an economist, called for early elections before the economy improved, and, well, describe the "rest" however you prefer.
It is quite possible that the US economy has become strong enough to withstand bad policy decisions for the next two years or so. But this outcome will translate to "good policy decisions" in voters' heads.
* see the following for a single-paragraph summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemal_Derviş#Ministry_of_Economic_Affairs
1
Bret,
First - Why are you discounting the very significant likelihood that Trump has broken the law and will not be able to run in 2020? Even if not because of maliciousness, but just downright carelessness. The likelihood is incredibly high.
Second - As a liberal, of course ICE should not be abolished. We get that. Let it be known that as a liberal, I say that.
Third - People from all over the world are ready to stand up and not let the American Right malign universal healthcare anymore. People in the UK, Australia and social-hearted countries are sick of it. These systems are life saving to millions of people and are cherished. The American Right will rue the day, in this interconnected world, they try to malign what they perceive to be more socialist countries because they dare to share assets to affect a better outcome for all.
4
Since Trump's election I have been predicting that Trump will start an "Election Stunt" war against Iran sometime before November, 2020 to allow him to run for re-election as a "war president". I am very happy to report that The Times has published this prediction on more than one occasion: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/22/world/middleeast/trump-threatens-iran...
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation is now reporting that the Australian government thinks I am right and is operating on the basis that Trump might order an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities as soon as within a month: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-27/donald-trump-may-be-prepared-to-st...
I am hopeful that the moderators will again indulge me in publishing this comment given that my prediction (I have predicted before that Trump might be so desperate as to order an anticipatory strike to help him in the mid-terms) is supported by my national government.
I am also writing to ask The New York Times generally if a report on the Australian government's understanding - or at least the report published by our national broadcaster - is going to be published with any prominence in this newspaper. I hope so.
Congress must urgently - URGENTLY - pass legislation requiring Congressional approval before Trump is able to launch any kind of military action against any other sovereign nation. Failure to do so will lead inevitably to absolute disaster.
6
The highly detailed map appearing in today's online edition makes a better point. It rewards some real time spent exploring.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-pre...
Are disaffected Republicans going to spend the next two years trying to convince liberals that being a ”liberal lite” is a winning strategy? Wasn't that what the Democrats tried with Hillary Clinton? Trump is your guy, Bret, take him or leave him. Good luck trying to recreate the Democratic voter in your image so that you feel comfortable voting for someone other than Republican.
1
Stephens, your story is so plausible it's scary! And what makes it plausible is that Trump is spending so much time on the campaign trail and doing such a good job of raising funds - already! It doesn't
matter what group he is speaking to, he is in campaign mode. And, what's even more critical is that the Democrats appear to have no ideas about how to counter what Trump is doing, all by himself! Along with the Trump News Channel, his popularity will be buttressed so solidly between now and then that nobody - not Biden, Warren, Booker, Holder(?) or anyone else who emerges as a front runner, stands a chance against the machine trump is creating.
4
One can't dismiss the possibility of Donald getting re-elected, and an incumbent president definitely has an advantage over a challenger, but Donald is hardly a lock to win re-election.
He barely got over the finish line in the last election, winning four key counties by a combined 77,000 votes across them, even with help from Comey's incompetence and the Russians. Donald won't have Comey around next time, and Democrats will be better prepared to contend with Russian interference.
Stephens is assuming two things. One is that the economy will continue to grow into 2020. The other is that rank and file Republicans will feel the effects of the ever-rising Dow in their own lives. Given that corporate profits have yet to translate into salary growth for employees and are unlikely to do so, Republican voters may not feel all that great about the economy come Election Day.
If Democrats win either chamber of Congress this year, Donald's presidency will be effectively over. He'll be under investigatory scrutiny unlike anything he's every experienced before, including what Mueller is doing. He will also have zero chance of getting any legislation he wants passed.
Rank-and-file Republican voters will turn out for Donald the way they have for other GOP candidates, but whoever is the Democratic nominee won't make the Clinton campaign's mistakes, like not campaigning in Michigan. And they're definitely going to have a more enthusiastic base than Clinton, who didn't get the vote out.
1
the one shred of hope that this scenario will not be enacted in real time is that there are indicators the growth part of the economic cycle will end sometime in 2019, and that there will be a recession in 2020. lets keep our fingers crossed.
1
Why is recession a good thing?
Is that what you’re hoping for?
I want Trump gone, and all he stands for.
But we have to do better than that.
1
Excellent points: hopefully Elizabeth Warren will not be the candidate as even many Democrats don't see her as Presidential material. And hopefully the Democrats will learn from Trump's mistakes. You can't fault him for trying to help restore the economy in the midwest. He's just going about it wrong with tariffs. However, negotiating with the WTO does seem like a good idea. It was foolish to discard the Iran nuclear deal; it bought 10 years of not worrying about the problem. Perhaps after some crisis in the next few years, people will have an appreciation for that deal and will support restoring it. Improving healthcare access might have to wait until the deficits are addressed by raising taxes, unless Medicare for all/public option can be financed. Free college tuition is not a winning idea and should be done state by state. The Bernie platform is not practical and is a white man's wish list to begin with. Best to adopt a few simple ideas as Trump did, but with better theoretical underpinnings, as it was obvious to many even during his campaign that his ideas were not really workable. What his followers respond to is the idea that he's fighting for them, even if he stumbles a lot.
3
In the last 12 months, average wages have gone up 2.7%. Inflation is 2.8%. Consumer spending in the last six months is up an annualized 0.64%, that's just better than population increase. For a four percent unemployment rate, this is a terrible economy for the average person.
3
OK - fair enough - but it won't be Elizabeth Warren, it will be Dwayne Johnson. After two verbal debates, the third will see Trump return to the squared circle, with America witnessing a bully getting his - for the first time. The second will be when Trump makes his loser's speech around midnight on election night.
And so, a son of the great state of California enters the White House.
I skimmed this. It made me stick to my stomach.
2
Mr. Stephens ignores completely how Trump got elected in the first place. It was because the Democrats *failed* to run a ticket like the one he predicts will lose in 2020. So the premise of his fundamentally conservative dystopian fantasy is flawed. As so many analysts have shown, Bernie Sanders would have sent Trump running, tail between his legs, back to his gilded penthouse precisely because Senator Sanders’ “socialism” (cue the Fox News hysteria) is an American-as-apple-pie, old-style New Deal populism (the real kind) that appeals to voters in all those supposedly deep-red states. Stop trying to scare the kids, Brett.
1
You got it, Brett. This is indeed a good bet for how the election might go. Thanks.
2
The only way Trump wins again is if he has Russian help, just like last time. Republican gerrymandering and voter suppression was not enough, the 30 year smear campaign against Hillary Clinton was not enough, Facebook/Cambridge Analytica manipulation almost did it, but only the Russians were able to hack the voter databases and dump enough Democrats off the voter rolls to really flip the election.
The Russian hackers will probably do even better next time. Next time they will go directly into voting machines and flip votes.
So, what exactly is being done to prevent another stolen election in 2020?
10
Is it time for yet another reminder that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by around three million?
5
If I wanted to read horror stories, I’d prefer Stephen King novels.
3
But in reality, successful 2020 ticket of Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota with former Republican Lisa Murkowski, carried Montana and Georgia.
So, House Speaker Jackie Speier brings a new agenda in 2021.
between his mounting legal troubles and ballooning weight, lack of exercise, stress, and rotten diet, all measured
against his age, I doubt Trump will be around for a run in 2020. he may be dead, pull a Wilson, or sharing a cell with Paul Manafort.
4
All of this is quite plausible . . . of course, except for the part about gun store owner, Bernard Schwartz.
2
“What part of Dow 30,000 do the liberals not understand?”
The somewhat obvious response to such a query, or any similarly myopic economic forecasting, has everything to do with what “liberals” understand about speculative investment and rampant bloat/instability.
Even the economy is slave to certain Newtonian principles.
4
A speculative exercise, given that my own guesses:
1. Dems will walk over broken glass to defeat Trump. The first and last criteria for most Dem primary voters will be who can defeat Trump. Polling will be a driver of decisions.
2. Trump has run a 'Jesse Helms' administration, not a 'Strom Thurmond' one. Strom made some outreach efforts to minority voters and won up to 20% of the African American vote in South Carolina, Helms ran explicit race baiting campaigns. Strom won the easy way, Helms and (Trump) will (try) to win the hard way. If Trump pulls it off, it will be by a razor thin margin, hasn't expanded/ shrunk his coalition.
3. Economic headwinds: Job growth last 16 months of Obama about 250,000/month, first 16 months Trump about 175,000/month. Inflation, interest rates, deficits climbing swiftly. Trade War. Health insurance costs skyrocketing. Real wages falling since Trump's inauguration. We are at the tail end of a recovery, with Trump doing everything possible to kick the economy in the teeth (Tariffs, unfunded tax cuts for the 0.01%)
4. My own guess: it's Biden/Booker or Biden/Patrick for the win. President Biden with 302 EV takes all the Clinton states + his home state of PA, MI, WI, IA, OH (all states where Trump is underwater on Morning consult's approval tracker - Has seen declines in all since Jan 2017). AZ goes to recount and Mcmullin wins UT.
2
Sorry, I've had a chip implanted in my brain that turns all bad news into good news. Now I am happy all the time.
5
As soon as I got to the part about Elizabeth Warren as the Democratic candidate, I knew I could stop reading why Trump won re-election.
6
I think jabarry has it closer. Trump’s reelection notwithstanding, my national party really is running out of time to prevent the worldwide catastrophe and mass die off associated with 4 degrees C of ocean warming (which looks horrifyingly close for my kids and grandkids.)
Where IS their champion?
2
Scary but more than likely a grim look into the future!!
Wow. That all reads as quite realistic. Color me depressed.
5
Obviously Stephens is of the opinion that law enforcement will not find so much as a smidgen of criminal behavior on Trump's part.
3
As a middle-aged liberal white woman, I'd like nothing more than to advocate for a democratic candidate running a campaign built on ideals. But the bottom line is that 2016 was about getting the black guy out and preventing the woman from getting in. If in addition to a strong economy and a plethora of ultra-right wing Trump judges on the courts the dems are dumb enough to run a socialist, person of color, or a woman, then 2020 will just be a sad, depressing repeat of 2016. The election is entirely in the hands of a few red states, and that's our reality. Anyone who believes those states will miraculously overcome their sexism and racism between now and November of 2020 is just a fool...and a loser.
6
Utterly correct. If the Democrats run a smart campaign with appealing candidates, they win. If they think they can win with a woman who sounds to the masses like Marge Simpson, a self-identified socialist, or, sad to say, a minority, they lose. And if they lose, our best days are past, and things get much worse. Let’s hope that all the ideological purists and aggrieved fringe-dwellers think about that.
7
This is the most depressing column I have read. Over my dead body, Trump goes on!
1
Mr. Stephens, why not leave satire to the great Andy Borowitz of The New Yorker?
Your try at it is doesn't even bring a chuckle to many here.
2
So, you think those tariffs are going to be good for the economy and those farmers who can't sell their crops and pigs are going to vote for Trump again. Like you said, "It's the economy, stupid," & I doubt it will be as good as you think.
2
They will vote for Trump again because their Messiah Trump, lives among them. Even Congress (GOP) and the evangelicals worships him.(Christ no longer applies here.) Just take a look at the polls...no matter what he does his numbers barely change. It's against all logic at this point. Oh, I made myself sad.
1
Running against Trump failed in 2016 why in God’s name do they keep doing it. Free advice:
1) Let Trump implode on his own
2) Develop an agenda/program focused on “regular” people
3) Write it down
4) Preach it
5) Focus on Independents and “sane” Republicans. Don’t chase the socialist fringe.
Thank me later.
9
" Don’t chase the socialist fringe ".
Actually, what you seem to describe as the "socialist fringe" in this country is called left of center of the political spectrum in other advance nations.
On the other hand, the Republican Party of today would be considered arch-right, if not even fascist in Europe, akin to Marine LePen party in France and the AfD - Alternative fuer Deutschland - in Germany.
6
The more the Democrats hate Trump, the more chance Trump has of winning in 2020. People will reject Democratic vitriol and vote Republican. Trump beats hate!
12
"Trump beats hate!"
Oh yeah, Trumps tweets and cuddly behavior are really endearing, aren't they?
4
One small error. He didn't carry Michigan. Mark my words.
2
A cautionary tale.
4
Dear Mr. Stephens,
There is certain smugness in this column that is so typically Republican.
It goes like this, "yes, folks, I know we are bad but we are going to win again."
This time, Dear Mr. Stephens, it is different. Very different. Donald Trump has assaulted the very foundations of this country.
So it is not cool, nor clever, nor insightful, to point out that he may win because of "one" issue...the economy.
There are things higher and more profound than dollars and cents.
So, no, Bret, you aren't uniquely cute in pointing out that Trump may win a second term based on a single issue. Clinton DID NOT win on just the economy issue and he was not assaulting the bedrock of America, free press and a free judiciary.
So, great, you looked into your crystal ball and see this coming.
Let's freaking hope not!
3
“It was always a red herring, just like Trump said,” said Bernard Schwartz, a gun store owner from Houston, Tex. “Democrats wasted a lot of ammo on that one.”
Bret Stephens may be right on many things (and we Democrats should pay attention to this warning) but one thing you'd never see, even in 2020, is a pro-Trump gun owner named Bernard Schwartz--in Houston or anywhere else!
7
Are we all forgetting that Trump won by a technicality? He LOST THE POPULAR VOTE!. Stop pontificating as if you are being paid by the word, and start working on making America a real democracy.
3
No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it. (Apologies to Peter Strzok.)
2
Someone posted:
The most evil, immoral, corrupt, stupid, lazy and incompetent. But let's not forget that he is also a narcissistic, thin-skinned bully who is really a coward when confronted face to face and has no knowledge of any important policy matters or economics.
Like him or not Trump is far from stupid, lazy, or incompetent.
The outcome aside, congratulations to the Upshot crew for working the kinks out of the prediction process!
1
Trump wins in 2020 (if not impeached by then) simply because the Dems have been convinced by LeftyLefts to try taking guns away from law abiding citizens. Pretty simple, Hillary. But I know you still don't get it, Hillary.
8
I am so afraid you are right.
3
Who better to identify the Democrats’ rising political stars than the party’s greatest political star himself, former President Barack Obama who rocketed from an unknown Illinois state senator to leader of the free world?
Come back Barack! It is your civic duty to help out with the current sluggish roster of possible Democratic 2020 candidates.
2
Nov 4, 2020 NYT headline:Trump and Repugnacans drive the economy into the ditch, Dems win in landslide. But seriously, the strong economy inherited from the Obama years is the only thing maintaining Trump's approval ratings. I suggest everyone who wants to be rid of our Dear Lewder minimize their discretionary spending. Let's tip the economy into the recession that is coming sooner or later anyway!
3
The problem for the Democrats is polls show that things that Democrats are so passionate about are not that important to the average American voter. If their message centers around climate change, abortion access, the plight of illegals, and identity politics they are sure to lose.
25
You’re making me more depressed.
3
Did the Democrats keep the house and gain the senate in 2020 or something else?
1
The Democrats have an excellent opportunity to win the White House in 2020. They'll blow it by nominating someone.
11
He cannot win the 2020 election after the 2018 elected Democratic House and Senate impeach him and remove him from office AND/OR the Honorable Robert Mueller III changes him with Obstruction of Justice, Money Laundry, and Treason plus numerous other charges any, of which will remove him from office.
6
This column contains many useful insights, but its thesis of a Trump victory seems to hinge on the highly optimistic economic assumptions Stephens makes. The economy has already been growing for a long time, which makes it vulnerable to investment decisions made on the belief that the trajectory of growth will continue indefinitely.
As for the Dow of 30,000, the part liberals don't understand is Stephens' fantasy that the real economy could grow fast enough in two years to support such a jump in the index. Sounds more like a bubble that could explode in Trump's face.
Finally, how does Stephens predict continued rapid economic growth in the teeth of a continuing trade war? Absent some rational analysis of how an economy could grow rapidly under the conditions Stephens describes, I think I will dissent from his conclusion that Democrats will lose the 2020 election because of a robust economy.
3
The reason this is so plausible, is that the changes in policy needed to spur wage growth and restrict the growth of wealth inequality are not of interest to the Dem donor class any more than they are to the Rep donor class.
Thus all the Dems have are the urban justice themes that won't play well in rural America and won't resolve the economic issues.
4
So the theory is that the economy will still be ok by then. A hypothesis far from assured.
5
Mr. Stephens' prognostication is written from the perspective of today's issues with Trump. In his soothsaying, he seems to make several flawed assumptions:
- There will be no additional scandals to emerge in the next two and a half years. The likelihood of that is about the same as Trump not being able to go a day without lying.
- Republicans will continue to hold both the House and Senate. There is a good chance many moderate Republicans will either not vote or will abandon the party like rats fleeing a sinking ship.
- The economy will continue to hum along to new lofty heights despite his best efforts to scuttle it all through import tariffs, trade wars, tax breaks for the super rich, stagnant wages for the middle class, and the very distinct possibility of military warfare (announced in a tweet) with the current enemy of the day.
- Elizabeth Warren will get the Democratic nomination. While possible, it is not a done deal. Democrats have plenty of time to eschew identity politics while focusing on those things that affect the middle class - stagnant wages, an illusory tax cut, increasing health care costs with no workable Republican solution, to name a few.
- Robert Mueller's investigation will come up with nothing against Trump. He seems to be unaware that Mueller's tactics have been quite successful so far in tightening the noose around Trump's neck.
My prediction: Mr. Stephens' rosy future for Trump and the Republicans may very well have wilted and died by 2020.
5
The scenario laid out in the column is very familiar to me. It has populated my nightmares for more than two years. Many of its elements are provocative and may or may not have any real likelihood of occurring. However, there is one critical element that may be in our power to affect: if Democrats win both the House and the Senate, then we have a chance of trying to pull ourselves out of the ditch, probably our only chance. As always, when Democrats turn out and pull together, we win. When we stay home or dissipate our force with protest votes, we can and do lose.
Vote, baby, vote!
2
Élection 2000 did not make a difference then election 2016 did not make a difference so why should election 2020 make one? We don’t really aim to be a Vigorous Representative democracy but we have regular elections to tell ourselves we are one.
4
If the economy is actually doing that well, then President Trump well might win re-election. I think the economy cracks before then and before the common man sees much of an increase in his wages. The combination of a burgeoning deficit, ramping up inflation, and a self-destructive trade war will be too much for this aged bull market/era of economic growth to weather. Apart from questionable policy choices, President Trump has badly mismanaged expectations. He has set an expectation of GDP growth which is not sustainable with the very slow growth in the workforce, which could turn negative if he deports enough illegal immigrants. He also has created the expectation of substantial real middle class wage increases, which haven't happened yet and are less likely to happen in the second half of is term. Finally, it is very hard to drive down trade deficits in the face of burgeoning budget deficits, but that is the expectation he has created. Ultimately, I think it is the economic problems which will sink him. He simply cannot deliver anything even close to what he promised.
2
You make several interesting points, Bret. Progressives like Warren or Sanders would run on the very things that Trump promised. Trump lied of course but his base doesn't care. As of now, wages haven't gone up at all. The deficit will explode, unless the Trump Republicans attack Social Security and Medicare. The Mueller investigation could find no clear evidence of wrongdoing.
What, Bret, might you be overlooking? I believe the Democrats will also give us a centrist candidate. Ocasio-Cortez won in NYC but she would not have won in PA. Likewise, they will, for instance, run on affordable college rather than free college. The Trump Republicans will attempt to fulfill their promise to eviscerate Social Security and Medicare. Their rich donors won't let them not do it. Even Trump's voters love Social Security and Medicare. The Trump Republicans will continue to sabotage the ACA which will cause health care costs to blow up for more than one hundred million of us (including for instance all older Americans). President Obama's stock market won't continue to go up because Trump's economic chickens will come home to roost. The deficit is already going up faster than even the critics thought it would.
4
I am seeing the same thing as you, Bret. Trump is a disaster at so many levels, but the measurable effects of this are still zero for most people. The economy is fine, employment is good, and we're not in a war. Yes, we're running up debt because of hypocrites in Congress and the White House, but nobody feels that yet. Something big and bad would have to happen, and even then, one of Trump's strengths is deflecting blame. In the end, it's all about whatever candidate and campaign the Democrats can put on the field in 2020. They have to win it, rather than expecting Trump to lose it. Retreads aren't going to cut it.
2
Thank you for this. As a moderate who usually votes Democrat i have lamented since even when Trump was running that Democrats have only offered a response to Trump rather than an inspiring vision (with all due respect to Bernie who actually did...before his campaign was handicapped by Democrat leaders who thought it was their prerogative to pick the candidate for the silly young and passionate voters).
Trump offers inspiration in spades to those who share his passion for fundamental change.
Most Democrats will cringe to even read that. But it’s true.
Hopefully Democrats will get their act together in time for 2020 and show respect for some of the good Trump has done, despite their personal feelings about him.
That’s really the only way to try to win over some voters.
5
"It's the economy stupid" certainly is , the economy of the wealthy and well to do . Elsewhere in the country the working people still struggle and are saddled with even less of a choice of medical and unaffordable health insurance ; are being hurt or will be hurt by Trump's trade wars . A true case of blinded by the right and their lies . The Dems definitely need to get their act together , but I fear they may not , so yes Trump may just win a second term .
What Stephens is doing is positing a worst case scenario for Democrats and a best case scenario for trumpists. Given the tiny margin with which he won in 2016, and everything we now know about him, I believe that margin evaporates. Although he can always rely on his cult base, the independents who decide elections are now thoroughly aware of trump's corruption and incompetence and will no longer support him. Also it may just be that voters no longer think the economy should be the deciding factor in electing a president but rather honesty, integrity, competence, valor and patriotism are more important, values trump lacks completely
2
This is an excellent warning. We should not be afraid to nominate and support candidates who can give back as hard as Trump, We should not be afraid to pair an Ocasio-Cortez and a John Lewis, anybody but someone you would expect. We know enough to know that, given Trump. governance is now half base and half social media, half inner stuff no one sees and half distraction. Normalcy is NOT returning. At best we can hope for a government that is not utterly stupid and cruel which is what Trump's is. The only way Trump can lose is the economy going south under the weight of his idiocy. Or Mueller proving smarter.
@Stephen C. Rose In terms of an unexpected Democratic candidate, what about Walter Mondale? Still going strong at 90, and could reassemble his powerful coalition from 1984 (when he took the electoral votes of his home state Minnesota, although the other 49 states went to Reagan)
1
@Richard At the age of 82 I have no comment. I don't think any of the candidates mentioned will be even considered. My hope is Trump will be gone by then,
Presenting Elizabeth Warren, in this fantasy, rather than a stronger candidate, just supports the view that all Democrats are losers. To me the constant berating of Democrats is not helpful. As we focus on the positive and what unites us our best candidate will emerge.
1
Thank you Mr. Stephens for letting Democrats know what they should do and shouldn't do during the next two years to end America's nightmare!
Funny column. But, I really don't think it will come to pass. Trump won't win in 2020 because he will have found some reason to cancel that election, an action that I read would be endorsed by over half of all republicans recently surveyed.
Whether he wins in 2020 or decides to cancel, your country and the rest of the free world will be history shortly thereafter if Trump is still around. I hope your economy, if it indeed it continues to succeed, will be enough to carry all of you, albeit in chains, until the end of your days. This is what is meant by selling your souls to the devil in return for the dollar all-mighty.
1
(1) Current GOP policies: Plutocratic capitalism propped up by racism.
(2) What Never Trumpers like Stephens want: Plutocratic capitalism without the racism.
(3) Democratic alternative: A more benign capitalism with economic security for working people to mitigate racism.
Only (1) or (3) is possible in a real-world diverse democracy. (2) is not going to happen.
3
Too many assumptions.
First, we're in a "boom" economy. Historically - and inevitably - booms have a short shelf life. "It's the business cycle, stupid," wouldn't work for Trump.
Second, you assume that Democrats will continue to make the mistake of running on "wedge" issues rather than pointing out their accomplishments from 1933 through the rescue of the economy by the Obama administration. Social Security. Medicare. Medicaid. Federal Unemployment Insurance. Deposit Insurance. S-CHIP, and so on, and on. And with Trump, the GOP has smashed their "national debt" argument about such programs to pieces.
Third, you apparently assume that Trump's efforts to disassemble the world trade order in ways that will benefit the U.S. will be successful. He sees trade as a zero sum game, and it won't work out that way. (E.g., the recent China/Japan trade pact.)
Fourth, and most critically, you assume that Trump's supporters will continue to enjoy his ongoing con game whether it hurts them or not - and it *will* hurt them unless he finds a way to find money to pour on the problems he creates. (E.g., his proposal for a farm subsidy.)
"You can fool some of the people all of the time...," but that pool of folks willing to be fooled - already a minority - will dwindle.
6
I can't stomach the thought.
As has been stated, many things can go wrong for Trump before 2020. Much depends on the outcome from the 2018 election, too.
Democrats need a strong candidate who can go against Trump. I do not know who that is at this time and neither does the party.
If this corrupt con man is re-elected, it will mean the end of our democracy. We are slowly headed there now, unbeknownst by his supporters.
It is interesting to see conservatives abandon morality. It’s like it was always just a cover for other things like white nationalism. That their moral concerns were always just about keeping people down.
Of course, now we see Bret Stephen’s normalizing Trump.
He is right that the right will say it is about the economy, but then without morality they need something new to base their racism on.
And those racists will abandon the party before
they abandon those long fought for bigotries.
1
I desperately want to bust the Republican monopoly on the executive and legislative branches of my government. At the same time, I am terrified that the Dems will fulfill Bret's dire prophesy by wasting their majority status on impeachment hearings. I believe that path is the surest way there is to energize and inspire Trump supporters to give him four more years.
1
I find it offensive to believe that we have to sell out women's reproductive rights and the human rights of our brethren in countries south of us in order to save our country from the horrible decision they may make in 2020. I am not not on board with that idea and won't ever be on board!
3
There are some interesting red flags pointed out here. What I
take from it is that Elizabeth Warren would not make a good presidential candidate. She can achieve more in the Senate.
Unfortunately, she comes across as school marmish and she would be too reminiscent of Hillary Clinton.
It remains to be seen what will happen with the trade wars and tariffs. I have zero confidence that Trump has reached any agreement with the EU that will last longer than
mid-November 2018.
I do agree that Democrats need to minimize their attacks on Trump. They do very little good. Keep them for the big stuff - such as TrumpDoesn'tCare for his healthcare "policy," etc.
The biggest mistake you've made, Mr. Stephens, is in thinking that Trump's future depends solely on whether there is enough evidence to impeach him for colluding with Russia
during the 2016 campaign. My guess is that Trump will go down over criminal corruption and money laundering charges that will also tie him to the Kremlin. There is a lot hiding in his tax returns, Cohen's testimony, Manafort's trials,the violation of Emoluments charges case. I believe that dirty money ties to Putin will be revealed.
But you are right to point out that Democrats are just as likely to shoot themselves in the foot. We need to focus more on a positive platform, and far less on Trump's glaring defects, lies, and cons.
1
If Trump survives and wins re-election it will likely by because the media narrative supports it. Just like they did in 2016. Cameras focused on empty podium's with titles beneath,"Trump to speak!" Much of what passes for political coverage in modern America boils down to keeping eyeballs on screens which in turn is driven by what is perhaps one of the few things this country is good at producing, advertising. How much can tv networks get for a min. of advertising time is what is the only thing that is remotely important. Journalism is largely lost. An anachronistic pursuit of a bygone era. The Fourth Estate cashed out several decades ago. A fact that has hollowed out our democracy and left the electorate at the mercy of which ever capitalist can pay the most to sway their minds.The press is the only industry referenced in the constitution. The founders seemed to understand that without a reliable source of information 'we the people' would be left at a serious disadvantage. And so we are.
"...the economy, stupid". Really? Dow 30k? How many avg Trump supporters even own any stock? Low unemployment rate. Yeah I guess if you consider the gig economy. A bunch of over educated people with school debt driving people around or working in some other underpaid industry. Corp profits are at record levels while wages have been basically flat since the rise of Reaganomics. Stephens' column may be prescient or a call to action.
His re-lection won't be possible w/o the media's complicity.
3
The sad reality is that this is distinctly possible. Not the least of which is that too many people will throw everything away if it means having a job and keeping food on the table.
1
This warning of sorts turns on one future assumption and one current observation: 1. The national economy will continue to be strong under the Trump presidency, and 2. The Democrats are long on moral fervor but short on a realistic and actionable campaign platform.
To Point #1, the economy typically does better under Democratic than Republican presidencies; one forbes.com opinion piece noted that "Nine of the last 10 recessions have been under Republicans." Also, Trump's financial history suggests that he's good at making money for himself while leaving everyone else in the fiscal lurch.
But wait! It doesn't matter one whit what the economy does, any more than if Trump were to shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue. His lemming base will follow him over the cliff just as long as it feels great about being white again.
To point #2, where Mr. Stephens' warning is right on the mark: Democrats currently are all moral fuss with no solutions of substance. Like the old Texas aphorism, they're all hat and no cattle.
My brother, who lives in Trump country, came for a visit and told me Trump would be re-elected. Then he said, and this really creeped me out, "you know who will be the first woman president? Ivanka."
Nightmare scenario. Hope it's only a nightmare.
5
@Sue
As do I. I keep hoping to wake up, but I continue to find I am living "Nightmare on Elm Street" with Freddy Krueger in the White House.
This is just insulting. The former WSJ editorial page writer pretends to suggest how Democrats should win. Puh-leeze. It's part of the broad-ranging corporate Democrat (and others, obviously) attack on progressivism that left the DP standing for nothing identifiable except business as usual. Has everybody forgotten the enthusiasm for Bernie? For truly telling it "like it is." For making the 1% pay a share? For fighting racism and scapegoating? Maybe the word oligarchy would be helpful. We're more than half way there.
2
Bret, I'm sure that your column has caused great angst among your NYT readership, but it is more accurate than all of the griping that we commonly read in the commentary section of the opinion page. Yet, unless I am grievously mistaken, the economy (both in 2018 & 2020) should prove decisive in those elections. And yes, Donald Trump will be reelected, not because he possesses the character & integrity of a normal president, but because he is doing many of the things that the people of this country want done.
Bill Clinton had it right when his slogan was "It's the economy, stupid," and the Dems seem not to want to face that issue head on. Instead, they want to make it about Trump.
The only quibble with your column is that you foretell that the Dems will take the House this year. I am not convinced of that since I cannot imagine the American electorate giving the Democrats power over any branch of our government when their issues are favoring illegal immigrants over American citizens, abolishing ICE, objecting to reasonable border control & security, raising taxes for everyone making over $100k, allowing China to continue taking advantage of the USA, and promoting social programs that infringe upon the freedoms of individual Americans.
The Dems may hope that the Millennials and minorities will give them full control of the government but at least for 2018 & 2020 there are too many voters that reject the Dems efforts to engineer a new social order in this country.
2
I wish the size of the DOW always meant a great economy.
I hope the voodoo pins Trump and the GOP have stuck in society and the economy fail to achieve the devastation that is likely by 2019, even if we make through 2018. At some point merely claiming success versus real facts has to fail, right? (Another "I hope", I guess.)
We already have evidence of "collusion". During the campaign, and currently - right in front of our faces: continued failure to prioritize the fight against Russian election attacks (meddling? what a pansy word for what they do) to his DoJ, while Putin stands next to him having "strongly" denied involvement but admitting in a press conference that he ordered it because he wanted Trump to win.
Bottom line: if this fantasy scenario plays out, given what we already know about Trump and his administration, we might be in for some form of civil war. Hopefully not the shooting kind, but with all the guns floating around out there...
@Barry Williams
Why didn't Obama do something about the Russian Meddling? He was President and it was happening on his watch !
1
This column is based upon the premise that the US economy will continue to grow AND that average Americans will reap the benefits over the next 2 years to the 2020 election. Neither is guaranteed, especially with the Trump administration in charge. Right now the economy is supercharged with huge deficit spending from a tax cut which primarily benefits the wealthy and continued (relatively)low interest rates. Meanwhile costs for average people continue to rise and the Trump tariffs will only make the situation worse.
Trump has yet to face a crisis even remotely comparable to that faced by Obama at the beginning of his term. If there is an economic crisis of any kind, this country is ill equipped to respond and Trump and his motley crew will not have any coherent plan. When the resulting depression hits the country will go with a leftist populist President and then “god help us”
1
@Ira Loewy Don't bet on it
1
I have never cared for dystopian fiction, because it is usually upsetting and not uplifting, but this is terrifying, truly terrifying....
That said, Trump remains the single worst POTUS in history, on almost every level, issue, aspect, and needs to be removed.
2
Did anyone notice how Trump has set up what appears to be the Big Blue Wave in November as Russia interfering / meddling in our elections? He mentioned that this will likely be the case and we can anticipate that he will make the most of his prediction and the results... He's a master of shape-shift-dialogue...
1
Given that the average economic expansion lasts five years and the current one is arguably in its eighth, you might think Trump ought to enjoy his extended free ride. But we're talking about a narcissistic crackpot who thinks that by owning an expensive car he knows how to drive.
1
I am so tired of the perpetuated trope that Democrats have nothing to offer, no message.
The problem is "Equality for all" and "We all do better when we all have hope" don't engender the same (simplistic) passion as "Build the wall" or "Lock her up."
Starting with Reagan, the GOTP focused on the long game, message driven, winner-take-all politics. No longer is the goal working through disagreement on how best to fix a generally agreed upon problem. Today, Republicans ignore facts and simply deny the existence of the problem. Meanwhile they undermine the social contract by diverting wealth to the wealthy while getting the working/middle class to chant hateful aphorisms and deflect blame for economic stagnation on marginalized groups we love to hate
These people who accept the lies and scream the chants don't spend much time outside of their informational/cultural bubble so they believe the xenophobic jingoism the GOTP feeds them. When you never see healthier, less stressed, happier, FREER Europeans, Asians, and even Canadians, it's easy to accept whatever bilge Rush and company are spewing.
The artificial post-war era of American supremacy has long past. Keeping us misinformed and angry is the oligarchy's best survival strategy
Trump's GOTP isn't fighting FOR anything. They are fighting against ... themselves. Abandoning a hopeful vision for a nostalgic fantasy.
But that doesn't chant well at a rally or fit on a bumper sticker.
6
Horror Story! So accurate it’s scary. But if Democrats continue down the road they’re on they’ll absolutely fulfill this living nightmare. We are at the fork—this time take the road less traveled.
5
Just within the past week, we read that North Korea may have begun dismantling its nuclear program and the EU is prepared to negotiate more favorable trade deals with the U.S.
Add this to a roaring American economy and it may indeed be difficult to beat Trump, particularly if Dems go looney left. Votes in NY and CA are meaningless. They need to speak to moderate, independent voters in swing states — like me actually.
Anti-capitalist candidates like Warren and Sanders won’t cut it.
6
This is the most depressing article I’ve read in months. Just the headline made my stomach turn. How about an article imagining Trumps demise due to farmers, auto workers, and everyone else he conned turning against him. We can hardly take the true news. Please give us some hope.
4
Democrats don't need to go all the way back to the drawing board, the way some have been suggesting lately. It's great to see more of a spectrum emerging in our talent bench obviously, but my God, people. It's not that complicated.
It's just time to recognize how utterly abysmal we are at marketing and branding our candidates. The only Democratic politicians in recent history who did manage that were Obama and Bill Clinton, and we can't take credit for those campaigns – most of it was due to their own charisma and likability.
Look, I viscerally remember the 2004 election, because I turned eighteen just in time to vote in it. It felt like it feels now. The incumbent was riding a year of terrible approval ratings; was known for his verbal gaffes and air of dim-wittedness; STOLE THE PREVIOUS ELECTION, and was responsible for sending thousands of Americans into open combat more dangerous than anything we'd seen since Vietnam. Two months out from the election, news broke that the number of U.S. casualties officially exceeded 1,000. The National Guard were coming home in body bags, or without all their limbs.
We treated it like the low-hanging fruit it should have been: picked Kerry, and campaigned on, "He's not Bush." It was just like Hillary; not even the anti-war firebrands found our candidate remotely exciting, so neither did anyone else.
We need to stop expecting people to intuit our positions. We need the modern LBJ "girl with flower" campaign ad.
See here's the thing. There are facts and there are lies. By repeating lies, Bret can make a Trump victory in 2020 plausible. BUT if you believe in enough lies you can make a Palin victory in 2020 plausible.
Let's look at a major lie. Bret says Medicare for All would be expensive when actually it would SAVE over $1,500,000,000,000 each and every year. And that ain't peanuts. Here are the data.
Here are the per capita figures for health care costs in 2016 in PPP dollars from the OECD:
US - $9507.20
Canada - $4643.70 (which has Medicare for All)
So Canada spends 49% of what we pay for health care. Since we spend about $3,500,000,000,000 on health care, that's works out to a savings of about $1,785,000,000,000 each and every year. Since there are 325,700,000 people in the US, that works out to $5,480.50 in the pocket (or diaper) of every American every year.
And similar data show we would get better care--live longer, fewer babies and mothers dying, etc.
3
If Trump wins it will be for the same reason he won in 2016, he's the "Make America White Again" candidate.
How else can he be utterly immune to scandal (Putingate and Porngate), 3-4 million more without health insurance, a $4.3 trillion worse debt trajectory over 10 years ($34,000 per family), and slower job creation than Obama?
Republicans have to be willfully blind to vote for Trump, and that means is not about rational considerations.
5
Not if Bernie stays out of it. Bernie is the spoiler, just like last time
DJT is doing poorly in some states he needs
I agree as to Warren is a bad pick, but Brown is not a bad pick; white male workers can get onboard with him
My vote goes to Gov Inslee from Washington.
Dems have to understand the 2020 is about getting back on the beach head that they were pushed off of in 2016 not marching into Berlin.
3
Wow. This read like a post-apocalyptic novel, only in op-ed form.
I tremble for my childrens future if this prediction comes true.
1
I believe in 2020 Trump will get the same number of votes as in 2016. His supporters are beyond enlightenment.
It will either be another win or a blowout loss. It all depends on the 40% that stayed home in 2016.
7
@Brad 100% agreed
1
A better title for the op ed piece would have been "How the Republicans dominated the 2018 midterms." Then the commentary regarding the lack of vision and messaging by Pelosi and Schumer would have been spot on.
But maybe I'm being too serious, so I'll play along. You forgot to mention the two main reasons for Trump's 2020 victory. The first reason was due to loosened environmental and energy extraction regulations. Toxic air and water contaminants from fracking and coal mining caused a major health epidemic. Those few who were able to make it to the polling places were so disoriented that they voted for Trump instead of Mitch Landrieu. The second reason: the Russians finally figured out how to hack the voting machines and change votes.
4
77,000 votes in three historically Democratic regions. Let’s do that again, 77,000 votes.
I am not convinced that Mr. Trump’s combination of luck in inheriting a solid economic foundation from the previous administration mixed with his rather dismal list of tangible accomplishments will hold those those 77,000 votes.
Will the country swing resoundingly for a solid Democratic challenger? Perhaps not, however, it wouldn’t take much now would it?
7
I have considered myself a democrat and a progressive person since I first voted for president (Carter). But now I am disillusioned. The democratic party keeps getting caught up in fringe social issues and neglects the issues of interest to most people like jobs, the environment and education.
Issues like transgender rights alienate people. Progressives should not run on such issues. They can be addressed after the election.
Immigration is another issue where democrats need to understand the perspective of most Americans. Of course we can't offer asylum to every person in Central and South America that needs a job. Of course we should prefer immigrants that bring talent and resources to our country. What is hard to understand about that?
So, while pushing a fringe issues during elections, progressives are really just ensuring that the republicans win and the progressive agenda goes nowhere.
10
@Bluedog: Maybe you should read the 2016 Democratic Platform. Because it is about the issues of interest to most people like jobs, the environment and education. And not to forget: affordable health care. And Obama was called the "deporter in chief"...
1
Exactly.
@Bluedog Your criticism is nothing but a regurgitation of the GOP caricature of the Democratic party and very far from actual reality.
1
Cautionary tales usually aren’t meant to be read literally or to convincingly predict the future. Often, they are meant to stimulate thought, reflection, discussion, and action. The exact details of Bret’s dystopian narrative matter far less than the truth of the underlying themes. From the intensity of many of the comments, I infer that those readers are more comfortable disputing details than facing the hard truths.
7
Bret Stephens keeps reminding us he is a conservative. While appalled by Trump he is trying to move opponents to the middle with scare tactics, a true conservative tactic.
While believing Medicare for all and free tuition are too expensive pie in the sky “socialist” plans, we see 12 billion given to farmers - unpaid for) and a deficit careening towards 1 trillion dollars, and the Republicans have no problem with this.
Time to stop worrying about conservatives and create a world order people can believe in!
11
Not going to happen, at least not that way.
Too many years of Republicans running the economy will lead to the usual meltdown and by 2020, it will have begun its slide.
Trump's shunning of our European allies and other former trading partners, along with the inevitable Republican deregulation of Wall Street leading to reckless pursuit of greed, will result in destabilization of the economy. Voters will finally realize that Trump's economic promises were as empty as his well of compassion.
Once again, they will need to vote in Democrats to put the economy back together.
5
Elizabeth Warren is brilliant, a living breathing person who cares about all of us, and is willing to work for better.
Trump is an empty ugly shell, a cowardly bully who is gradually losing any soul he might (?) have had.
He's not fit to shine her shoes.
Warren or somebody else, this yucky essay is meaningless.
Reality matters, Truth matters. Ugliness and reaching for the worst in ourselves matters.
Whether it's Warren or somebody else, remember one thing.
Republicans Really Don't Care
Do U?
(Making America Small, Mean, and Pushing/Pulling It Behind (It's Behind?))
9
But he is right. He has succeeded in tainting Elizabeth Warren as someone who played the system (by "pretending" to be a minority), and she comes across is unpleasant and nasty. We have no viable alternatives.
We need to stop screaming, stop focusing on hurt feelings/who started it, and start proposing policies to fix this country. If we don't offer a substantive alternative, we're doomed.
We need to propose a fix to the ACA that will solve the real problems it causes, without bringing back the real problems it solved - screaming about not repealing it is not enough.
We need to propose an immigration policy that can be justified as fair, reasonable, compliant with international law and human decency but does not say that everyone can come. They can't. We need to decide what the limits are.
We need to find a way to get jobs for people who don't have them or who have bad ones.
We need to find ways to preserve the environment without being oblivious to the impact on the people trying to make a living.
We need to stop having a tantrum every time someone says something hateful. It persuades no one. Tactics, people!
We need to recognize that speaking hatefully of religious people is as bad as speaking hatefully of people of other races, sexual orientations, etc.
We need to understand that the opposition to abortion is based on moral conviction and consider how to deal with that without giving up the moral convictions that we have.
Etc. Without that, we lose.
3
@E I recommend a dose of the Gospels.
There's an awful lot of trolling here, I hope you're being honest. Too many people want us fighting with each other.
https://bigthink.com/paul-ratner/34-years-ago-a-kgb-defector-described-a...
"ideological subversion:
"“What it basically means is: to change the perception of reality of every American to such an extent that despite of the abundance of information no one is able to come to sensible conclusions in the interest of defending themselves, their families, their community, and their country.” "
"“a great brainwashing” which has four basic stages. The first stage is called “demoralization” which takes from 15 to 20 years to achieve."
Mr. Stephens is VERY optimistic that the Democratic candidates will have "neither a recession nor a major war to run against" in 2020. Pressures are building to create both.
2
The release of Trump's tax returns are about much more than showing his ties to Russia. Trump is, like the Wizard of Oz, a very small man, hiding behind his wealth and supposed business acumen. Take those away, and what you're left with is a meaner version of Sarah Palin.
Trump is desperate not to release his tax returns and reveal his secrets. He can dismiss those who write about him now as biased, but the returns should speak for themselves. I believe he would sooner resign than have the public look at them.
9
This is exactly right. Trump may win in 2020, though not for the reason Mr. Stephens indicates. Even if the economy is not as great as predicted, barring a total disaster, Trump’ s chances are good. He has a compelling narrative. The Democrats don’t. Moral scolding won’t do. Identity politics won’t do. Promising “socialism” with endless caveats (“it’s not Venezuela, it’s Norway” won’t do. What always wins is a vision of the future. Trump has one: the future is the past, the mythical America of the 1950s with blue-collar jobs and white-picket fences. It’s a terrible and unrealistic vision but it clearly has an appeal to some portion of the electorate. The Democrats had their chance to articulate an exciting future-oriented, technology- and science-oriented vision that would appeal to the young, the educated, and the forward-looking - their natural base. They blew it. I have no interest in voting for the hand-me-down recycled populism of Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. And if I stay at home on the Election Day, so will millions of others.
7
@Mor, I have no liking for Warren or Sanders either, and if it comes to them, I will vote extremely unhappily. But I will take hand-me-down recycled populism that recognizes the risk of global warming over Trump. I have kids. I want them to survive.
4
Americans fought and died so that you could have the right to vote. It’s a slap in the face to their memories and their sacrifice for you to choose to stay home. Vote for the lesser of two evils, but, for crying out loud... VOTE!!!!
You're exactly on target. With a change from "working man" to "working people" in the imagined "Trump Tweet", you have identified precisely the origin, 1950 or so, of the journey that has been leading the Left to oblivion over the last seventy years.
Income/wealth distribution is the crux of social conflict.
Period.
It is what mobilizes irresistible majorities, masses of forward inertia that cannot be thwarted.
In building such irresistible majorities, the desperation of 200 million people is about 200 times more important than the desperation of a million.
Traditional bipartisan politics responded to the end of the postwar boom (1970 or 1975) by hollowing out the Midwest, the region from Appalachia to the Sierra.
It is true that something had to be done about Midwestern labor costs. Some kind of austerity had to be accepted.
But , to keep America great, so to speak, or at least united, it had to be done consultatively, with the participation of domestic labor in the process of selecting the course of austerity.
This was not done. Internal and external translocation of industry, runaway plants and globalization, was chosen. Chosen behind the backs of the working people of America's heartland. Of what was called in WWII, The Arsenal of Democracy. Where do you think most of the Rosie the Riveters worked? Shame!
The revolt of their progeny has begun. It begins with a scream. The content isn't important; the decibels are.
Thus 2016 and perhaps 2020.
3
@alyosha I generally think you have it right, but is it their progeny or themselves that are screaming? I think their progeny have moved to the coasts. Which leads to the question of what happens as these areas empty further.
@E It's their spiritual progeny, mainly biological, but with outlanders. Me, for example. I left my native California to flee the cultural devastation wrought there by the supporters of those who brought physical devastation to what, sadly, is now our largest region, Flyover.
A lot of impoverished immigrants have come to this greater Midwest. Their situation, whether they know it or not, is quite risky. Documented and undocumented both, they will be the first to experience Rosie the Riveter betrayal in the next, possibly catastrophic, slump.
They will have little interest in joining the Scream of Trumpism, yet at the deepest level their desperation will have the same roots and the same solution as does the desperation of the more native working people.
The root will be betrayal by the Establishment.
The beginning of the solution is in the slogan of the heroic days of labor: An Injury to one is an injury to all.
Our 99% is split racially, by gender, orientation, occupation, citizenship status, region, employment status, and on and on.
By focusing on the crux, the economic oppression of all of us, we can embrace those glorious words of solidarity, An Injury to All, and rise up again as did our physical and spiritual ancestors in, this time, an unstoppable force for social regeneration.
Granny will be right proud.
Great piece. Assuming the economy continues to do well, Trump’s vast imperfections won’t matter and he will win in 2020. Note to Democrats everywhere: he won’t be impeached.
8
Warren is more sophisticated than you give her credit for.
If Trump wins reelection, it will not be because Democrats don't have an answer to what about the Dow? It will be because people have been shielded for the last century or so from the most devastating effects of laissez-faire capitalism and survival of the fittest social darwinism favored by today's conservative leadership.
If they fail it will be because so called reasonable Republicans and conservatives have failed to follow the courageous example of people like Bruce Bartlett in denouncing Republicans' pathological obsession with lower taxes. It will be because they are secretly thrilled to realize that it wasn't Romney's elite lifestyle and lack of paying taxes that doomed him - it was the fact that he acted elite.
If they fail it will be because so called reasonable Republicans allowed Trump and co. to get away with blaming all the ills and increasing unaffordability of America's failing healthcare system on the ACA, and not due to the private sector's inability to control costs.
If they fail it will be because Republicans were successful in dividing voters and being careful to only throw enough people under the bus without harming their gerrymandered majorities. It will be because the repercussions of their drastic cuts in the safety net will be against somebody else, or take effect only in 20 years time, after their voters are dead.
It will be because Republicans have no shame.
18
@DebbieR
RE:
It will be because people have been shielded for the last century or so from the most devastating effects of laissez-faire capitalism and survival of the fittest social darwinism favored by today's conservative leadership.
So much cheap abundant food that obesity is a problem? Air travel for the masses? iPhones and other personal computers? The elimination of polio, scores and scores of new drugs and medical miracles. Gays can marry. There has been a black president and almost a woman president, etc, etc... Seems like the last century has been pretty good.
Elizabeth Warren? I don't think so. At least, I hope not. I really feel sad for the millennials and younger whose lives we are diminishing by the harm we are allowing to be done to the planet. Among so many other travesties.
4
@Andy You might want to check Elizabeth Warren's record on the environment. She's one of the best.
4
Nope. What this column forgets is that Trump not only lost 2016 by 3 million popular votes but if just 14% of 3rd party voters in just three states (PA, MI, WI) had voted for Hillary, she’d be in the White House now.
And Trump’s 85% approval rating among Republicans is misleading because of a declining base as intelligent conservatives leave the party.
When Dems take the House in November, House Republicans who are left will be in fear for their jobs and run from Trump. They might even support forcing him out. The only reason most still support him now is fear of the base or a primary challenge.
If Dems turn out to vote in 2018 and 2020, it’s over for Trump and the Republican majority. If they don’t, it’s over for democracy or at the very least, it’s over for the U.S. as the leading power in the free world.
Hopefully, Mueller has the goods.
15
Democrats should realize that Trump is not a cause of the nation's political and social crises, but a symptom. If Clinton had won, we still would have the same underlying problems even if she would have backed wiser policies (I expect plenty of us would have found good reason to criticize the First Woman President: like her continuing unquestioning support of Israel). Trump stimulates the worst instincts in American voters, but if we didn't have the huge and growing gap between rich and poor and the emergence of an anti-democratic business/political oligarchy, Trump would have just been a sideshow.
11
This is note perfect. Judging by the comments I’ve read you even seem to have gotten some traction with the D base. So hats off. Perhaps D politicians, donors, and campaign consultants will follow the base on this.
6
Sad as it makes me to say this, I can see Trump winning in 2020. However, the booming economy will not be the reason. Pretty much every unaffiliated economist (and most partisan ones as well, on both sides, if asked in private) agrees that we are likely to be in recession by some time early in 2020 (and possibly earlier). What I worry about is that Trump will be able to blame the Democratic House for the recession. Of course, the recession will not be the Democrat's fault. Nor will it be Trumps fault (though his trade policies may exacerbate it). But Trump is so much better at manipulating the media (and taking advantage of his Fox propaganda arm) that it is more likely that he'll be able to pin it on the Democrats than vice versa.
7
Do you honestly think that Elizabeth Warren wouldn't focus on an economic message? Warren has spent a good part of her professional life focused on such bread and butter issues of America's working class. If anybody can show that the emperor has no clothes, it's Senator Elizabeth Warren.
Bret offers well-intentioned but flawed advice. In the Age of Trump, the moral issues are glaringly self-evident. Even George F. Will, that paragon of Republicanism, urges citizens to vote Democratic as a moral imperative and constitutional check. As for economics, the economic repercussions of Trump's gut-driven trade policies will be far a more eloquent testimony than any political speech. The great task for the next American president will be unite the country, inspiring the better angels of our nature. The next president needs to do more than move the country horizontally along a political spectrum. That leadee will need to move us higher.
3
This is a splendid column. It is that rare contribution that illuminates both past and present by speculating thoughtfully about the future. An especially nice touch is Stephens' atonal prediction about the 2018 congressional elections as well as the presidential contest in 2020. We should all save Stephens' piece to reread after those two events have happened.
7
I'm a conservative who voted third party.
Until the Democrats stop trying to force feed Americans policies that don't want, they will continue to lose.
Nationlized health care, repeal of the Second Amendment, repeling tax cuts, open borders, calls to abolish ICE, and the dmonization of their fellow Americans who could not bring themselves to pull the lever for Hillary are not winning policies or strategies.
14
@redandright No one would call for repeal of the Second Amendment (except for a few extremists, of course) if there wasn't a wing that was trying to read it as though it has no limits. Reasonable gun control, that's what we want. Not coming to take your guns. Just licensing, training, screening for mental illness and criminal activity, and liability for acts committed with your gun.
(And before you say, "what does shall not be abridged" mean, look at the first amendment and figure out how it can be illegal to yell fire in a crowded theater.)
1
Dear red and wrong,
No Democrats are for repealing the Second Amendment or opening our borders; that's just right-wing propaganda. Some extremists want to abolish ICE; they are not mainstream Dems. Single-payer health care works better than our system (lower costs, better outcomes) in the countries that have it. Tax cuts for the wealthy that implode the deficit are bad for the country.
1
Stop and think! What are the actual problems that our nation faces. It is not gun control, not abortion rights, not LGBT marriage. It is income disparity and the loss of economic parity outlined in Mr. Edsall's eye-opening article. Trump represents the oligarchs. Working people are angry at the Democrats and I don't understand entirely. We need to be closer to unity first.
@William Trainor I agree with you that we have to prioritize other issues, but it does sadden me when these issues are simply dismissed. You are dismissing out of hand issues that matter to the daily lives of many, many people. They have to sacrifice for the greater good, I agree, but let's not ignore what is being done to them.
If the Democrats nominate Senator Warren, as you predict, you may be right. If they nominate a coalition builder, your scenario is less likely.
9
Yes, Trump might get re-elected in 2020. But it definitely will not fit the script penned here. While Stephens' story makes a lot of sense circa 2018, everything will likely be different in 2020. So many variables, so many ways to get rid of Trump.
4
The elephant int the room that is rarely mentioned is the profound minority rule in the Senate.
The archaic Constitutional requirement of two Senators per state regardless of population has virtually destroyed our democracy and guaranteed minority rule.
The vestigial absurdity that is the Electoral college rubs salt in the wound of our dying Republic.
This is why we have Gorsuch not Garland. This is why we cannot even get reasonable gun background checks supported by 90% of Americans. Etc. etc. etc.
A voter from Wyoming has as much as 70 times more say in the Senate than a voter from TX or CA.
The founders expected a Constitutional convention every 20 years or so to amend the document as needed.
We have failed as a country to live up to that expectation responsibility. Now we are facing the dire consequences.
20
This made me sick. Cancel my NYT subscription!
10
What should the Democrats stand for? America. Not merely the United States-obviously a misnomer at this point. America the beautiful, from sea to shining sea. A clean majestic America with purple mountains majesty and fruited plains. A land that God would shed his grace upon, instead of recoiling in horror as we torture babies and put them in cages. An America whose brotherhood is crowned with good, not bitter immature fighting over who is the boss. Not an America owned and manipulated by Russia. Not an America where only the rich seem to have access to the good life. Not a corporatocracy where the only thing that matters is the bottom line. Think Jimmy Carter, Dwight Eisenhower, Abraham Lincoln, John Kennedy to name a few--men with common morals and a sense of social justice. Think of a country where the disparity between" haves" and "have nots" is small because greed is not the basic emotion driving everyone. The Democrats dropped the ball on America and Trump picked it up. Now we have a host of problems that divide us and seem insurmountable. But they are not insurmountable. If we work together to solve them we can solve them. We cannot please every group on every issue every time, but we can all sit at the table and act like adults as we discuss possible solutions. One thing Trump has done is to awaken the sleeping giant once again--this time politically. What should the Democrats stand for? Truth, Justice, Liberty, and Kindness for starters.
9
But, of course, if all these things happened the "president" would indeed be re-elected. But of course, they won't, but especially the Dow 30,000. My guess is that the sugar high from tax cuts should be wearing off in late 2019 or early 2020, and then watch those trillion dollar deficits destroy this propped up economy that is simply based on deficit spending. You rascally Republicans just can't give up the Voodoo Economics, can you? Nope, because that is what your true masters require. Thanks so much for bankrupting us again...and again..and again...
17
"What do Democrats stand for?” he asked. “Lawlessness or liberality? Policymaking or virtue signaling? Gender-neutral pronouns and bathrooms or good jobs and higher wages?”
Unfortunately true. Until the Democratic Party starts standing FOR some concrete, easily communicated and realistic policies and solutions rather than just AGAINST the President, nothing will change. Identity politics and calls for single payer healthcare and free college tuition won't sway Independent and Republican voters who are disillusioned with the status quo.
14
Bret, will you do another piece on how Trump became president for life after his re-election, shutting down major media publications and outlets by declaring a state of emergency after our alliance with Putin led to war with Iran? How he jailed dissidents, opponents (finally locking up Hillary) and "illegal" immigrants under more "streamlined" Homeland Security rules? Etc.
9
Excellent post-mortem of a terrifying and highly possible scenario.
6
Many readers may not want to agree with what this column says, but it does serve as a serious warning shot.
14
How Trump Won?
The widespread use of Trumpco paperless internet connected Voting Machines. Why he even carried New York by 90%.
5
I would add the following: "The Democrats may also have been hurt by Mr. Trump's refusal to do anything about continued Russian interference in the electoral process, even after his reluctant admission on Twitter that it "might exist (BUT I DOUBT IT)." Moreover, the heavily armed right-wing groups who blocked access to polling places in heavily Democratic precincts in Detroit, Cleveland, and Philadelphia while police stood aside may also have made a difference, especially given Trump's razor-thin victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio."
7
We have Trump because a corrupted DNC nominated the most unelectable candidate in modern America politics, Hillary Clinton. There is no rocket science here.
The Democratic leadership had no message other than, "He's Trump, we're not". What has changed? Nothing.
While the progressive wing of the party has constantly been on message talking to working class Americans about Wages, Healthcare (Medicare for All), Free Education through college, Combating Climate Change, Infrastructure and Judicial Reforms to name a few, all the tried "Old" Democratic leadership proposed was "A Better Deal". Please. It"s time to replace the old guard, Pelosi, Schumer, Hoyer...et al, with new progressive voices before it's too late.
We can't hand this moron the keys to the White House for 4 more years.
13
@Jim Az You must be listening to a different progressive wing. The one I hear is talking about abolishing ICE, no longer detaining illegal immigrants (in effect creating open borders) and protecting DACA people (appears to be no longer of interest to progressives).
It won't be "It's the economy, stupid." It'll be "It's the stupid economy" A tax cut financed by debt is a loan, one that must be repaid. I suppose government stimulus works, even when you don't need it. But that's money taken from the public sector to give to wealthy individuals and businesses already sitting on record reserves. Republicans underestimate how crucial an effective public sector is to a strong economy.
But if I'm wrong about my economic prognostications, its a sad day when Americans only care about their own well-being. Sad, indeed.
6
" a damning portrait of a campaign that was riddled with Kremlin sympathizers and a candidate whose real-estate ventures WERE BEHOLDEN TO RUSSIAN INVESTORS (aka the Russian state and in particular V Putin), no clear evidence of collusion between Mr. Trump and Moscow ever emerged and the president was never indicted."
No clear evidence between Trump and Moscow?? Are we really that blind or just that stupid?
5
Cute.
A sneak peak at (hypothetical) future headline titles:
[December 23, 2021] "The Upshot: How the GOP's New Trillion Dollar Per Year Defense Budget Affect Your Bottom Line"
[May 5, 2022] "Dow/Temperatures Continue to Hit Record Highs, Middle Class Lives Most Changed by the Latter" by F. Bruni
[September 8, 2022] "Nation Divided on Nevada High School Students' 'Obscene' Response to Vice-President's Prayer Visit Following Last Shooting" NYT Ed. Board
[March 13, 2023 - following Justice Ginsburg's death/retirement at age 90] "Liberals Should Keep an Open Mind: A Case for how a 6-3 Conservative SCOTUS is a Return to Balance" by B. Stephens
[March 14, 2023] "Hysteria Over New Muslim Ban: How Liberals' Lack of Spirituality Incurs God's Wrath" by D. Brooks
[February 14, 2023] "No, It's Not the Same: Why a Gay Fashion Designer is Immoral for Refusing Service to Straight Weddings" Op-Ed Piece by Rev. Jerry Falwell, Jr.
[April 20, 2023] "'Race Wars are Easy to Win': Troubling Rhetoric from Attorney General Duke" by G. Collins
[June 20, 2024] "Unscheduled Putin White House Visit and Trump's Extended 'Working' Vacation Enters 6th Month" WaPo Ed. Board
[July 2, 2024] "Is it really Just the Economy, Stupid? Why 1960's Great Jobs Numbers Failed to Make Blacks Accept Societal Racism" by C. Blow
[November 2, 2024] "'Blue Wave' Literally Reshapes Southern Districts: Defunded FEMA Helpless Against Hurricane Inevitable" WSJ Ed. Board
6
This seems to be a new occupation for Republicans: after losing their party to a white nationalist con man, they are going to teach Democrats how to get it right. We'll learn from your mistakes, Bret, not your advice.
9
The more negative stuff Trump's enemies throw at him, the more pathetic Democrats continue to look for not having beat him. The last election was a spraying contest between two skunks- one wins, but both stink. In this climate, the politics of character assassination, the stock-in-trade of both parties, has no effect on Trump. Keep up the good work, Demos, and it will be Trump in 2020. You've done little to inspire confidence in something better.
6
@MorrisTheCat
You are wrong! Hillary was an extremely qualified, safe, first woman president! She would have taken the wheel and steered the ship straight for 4 years and then lost to a republican. Why to people villainize Hillary? Look at her resume, on her merits she should have won. Would she have been an icon - no, but she would have continued the slow steady progress toward social justice. The hilllary bashing makes me sick! Why don’t you go work half as hard as she has for the people And report back to me! This country especially the woman who deserted Hillary should be ashamed!
How’s he gonna serve from prison?
12
@Larry Romberg He's not going to prison.
In 2010 I heard a lecture by photographer Edward Burtynsky about his new andmark photography book about China, taken over months while he & his crew drove across China.
Asked what he found most interesting about China, Burtynsky said "No birds." They sometimes drove 4 - 5 days without seeing a single bird. Pollution had killed them all. Burtynsky said the air was horrible. He & his crew suffered constant coughs, congestion, burning eyes & headaches.
This is the stuff Trump ignores when he talks about China's great economic success. China's paying a high price for chemicals belched into the sky and dumped into the rivers, resulting in deaths from cancer, lung problems & more.
Don't think it can't happen here. All Trump's policies severely downgrade our environment; dirtier water & air. Trump derides "fake climate change" but where I live there are now frequent tornadoes & flooding that didn't exist 30 years ago. Friends who live in the desert & along the California coastline are terrified by the 120 degree temperatures, constant draught & epic fires now a daily occurrence - that didn't occur when I lived there in the 1970s.
Industrialists & corporations don't care about climate change & keep heating up the planet, causing this disaster. Trump's the billboard for "I don't care about climate change!" Parts of our country will be ruined by Trump's assault on the environment.
Not caring about this is insane. The birds can't fix this. It's up to us.
11
This quote didn't make the otherwise thorough analysis: "Trump's wrong on everything, pathologically dishonest, racist, and clearly beholden to Putin, but at least he didn't start a war, unlike the past two Republicans in the White House," said Joe Smith of Most Towns, USA.
4
They should keep this article ready, it sounds quite likely.
9
This is likely to happen. Full stop. Unless the Democratic Party finds its footing/message, fast, and gets it out there.
9
Stephens fantasizes: "Polling surveys suggested that wavering voters saw a Democratic Party more invested in humiliating the president than in helping them."
You can bet that if Elizabeth Warren is the Democratic presidential candidate, she is not going to make Hillary Clinton's mistake of taking the working class vote for granted.
Warren is the embodiment of a politician who stands with the poor, the working and middle classes, and against big money (big corporations and the rich). She has and will have plenty to say about how to help the poor, the working and middle classes, and she will overwhelmingly defeat Trump or any other Republican.
An Elizabeth Warren / Sherron Brown ticket would be a great one, beating any Republicans. I hope that part of Stephens' fantasy comes true.
9
@Steve C
My worry about Elizabeth Warren is not that she'd ignore the working class, but that she'd engage in the alienating social justice warrior rhetoric that the Dems typically use to "energize the base."
9
@Livonian
As Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez made so clear in her campaign, social justice is not separable from economic justice. What does it help you to be socially free if you don't have the economic means to do anything with that freedom?
That's been a strong Bernie Sanders theme for some time. I doubt Warren will ignore it.
The tax revenues are already falling and the deficits will rise beyond the Trillion mark soon. Once the markets realize the full extent of the long term damage, the equity indexes will reflect the negative uncertainty. By 2020 anyone who is half awake on a trading floor will probably realize that you cannot squeeze the lower and middle classes any further and that social unrest is coming. Trump would continue tweeting his lies daily and people like Bret who did not digest their Political Economy 101 courses will think that the markets will continue to believe those lies. Until they won’t. The USA will then not be a place to live in. I wonder where Bret will try to move then?
6
For Donald Trump, it's "apres moi, le deluge" after January 20, 2025. By this time next year, he'll have little interest in positioning Mike Pence to be his successor as president. He will drop Pence from the ticket, dispense with any pretenses of caring about the evangelical wing of the Republican Party, and probably select as his running mate for 2020 a non-politician completely out of the blue.
Donald Trump doesn't trust people who wish to take the reins of power from him. Naive to assume he's just going to let Pence build a case for himself as the GOP nominee in 2024.
3
Somehow I find it hard to believe that we can have a good economy by 2020 with the constant barrage of tariff wars. I believe they tried that before in the twenties; 1920's. They started out with a good economy then, too.
4
Possibly true even if the opponents are those I do not agree with.
First, the mischief by the Russians who have been indicted have been surveyed and found to be significant and detrimental to the election. Mr Trump knew and encouraged that happening. The Supreme Court might declare the election null and void reverting the election to HRC.
Secondly she beat him 3-4 million votes even while being trounced multiple times by the FBI director. The FBI never, ever makes public ongoing investigations. He did knowing exactly what he was doing during the campaign and then four days before the election did it again, muting what might have been a landslide against the now incumbent.
She should not have apologized for losing the election.
Trump, the Russians, and Comey did their worst and the grand theft was the electoral college that stole if from her.
After the electoral college fiasco in 16 and others before the electoral college should be seen for what it is. It is a golf handicap that gives unfair advantage and rigs an election in ways that can be fine for friends in a foursome to keep all interested in the game but is dangerously used when selecting the leader of the free world.
A constitutional convention should be convened perpetually until light shines and the process hits the ash heap it deserves.
She can beat him again.
3
@William Franklin What world are you possibly inhabiting if you think any Supreme Court, ever, would declare an election "null and void". The prospect is beyond ridiculous. Second, what mischief has been surveyed by WHOM who has found it "significant and detrimental to the election". Your candidate stunk. FULL STOP. She accomplished the impossible, losing to Trump because she was viewed quite correctly as corrupt and devoted to identity politics.
@William Franklin Somehow, I don't get the feeling Comey was working for Trump.
Bret, other conservatives and so-called independents: Enough with putting it on the "Democrats" to win the next election. Democrats and liberals, like myself, will do our bit. In spades. This is on all of us, and especially on you. If you believe that Trump needs to be thrown out, tell us what YOU are going to do.
13
There are several issues brought up by Stephens that have merit. Warren and Harris are probably losing candidates. The abolishment of ICE is a nonstarter. Democrats should change the way ICE does its important job.
Nevertheless, the Democrats will have to put together a viable platform and market it to voters.
However, this column has several presuppositions that are dubious.
1. We have seen a record consecutive number of years of growth in the DJ average. We will not see 30,000 under Trump with tariffs, wars, etc.
2. Trump will not be the Republican candidate. Something smells bad in Washington, and Mueller will extirpate him through Congress.
Bret has no faith in karma, or the American voter. But if it walks like a duck, if it looks like a duck, if it smells like a duck, it's a duck.
But with Trump we have all the apparent indicia of a Quisling.
3
Entertaining op-ed - and likely will be true - but I'd be very surprised if Elizabeth Warren is the Democratic candidate.
She will never live down the Native American controversy, and is generally loathed everywhere outside Cambridge, NYC and other far-left enclaves.
7
Trump will either not run in 2020 or resign and/or be in prison by then, so the real question is who will be the GOP nominee?
Democrats need fresh blood; young people who bring solid ideas and vision to the party. importantly, someone who cares about our democracy remaining vital and unchanged. If we cannot make needed changes then Trump will win. We need every one to vote;
1
Give the GOP another 10 or 20 years of rule, folks will come around.
Or they won't. And we'll know what kind of country we've got, and can proceed accordingly. Especially here in Cali, where #CalExit may finally get a shot at becoming a reality.
IMO think we're likely on a course to split the country up in some way eventually. The two competing visions (I've got mine, you get yours vs. let's pool some of our resources to provide cradle to grave healthcare, education, etc.) are not amenable to compromise, beyond efforts like Obamacare, which no one likes.
We can still play each other in the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL and MLS. Then go home to our respective happier lives.
2
“He made my party lose its marbles”
Well played Stephens.
6
If the United States has any hope of regaining the stature, leadership and cooperation we once enjoyed with the rest of the civilized world, Democrats winning back the White House is essential.
Trump has made racism, bigotry, misogyny, xenophobia and discrimination of non-white people perfectly okay with a significant percentage of voters. With so much of the electorate willing to express their hatred at the ballot box, 2020 will not be the year to have a woman or a person of color at the top of the ticket. It pains me that this is so; I’m very aware this would eliminate a tremendous number of highly qualified candidates.
Please vote!
9
@Paul Mc
If the Democrats trot out another establishment, centrist, corporate, big money Democrat again, like Hillary Clinton, I will certainly vote, but not for the Democrat.
An Elizabeth Warren / Sherron Brown ticket gets my full support: my vote, voice and contribution.
3
No doubt the fact that Trump will be serving a life sentence will have no effect on his supporters continuing to vote for him.
6
Trump opponents will cling to "the democratic socialist revolution," in the face of all electoral evidence, at their peril. Bernie lost the primary to Hillary, badly. The results of the Democratic primaries in places that weren't already deep blue tell the same story: When it comes to actual results at the ballot box, democratic socialism has proven unpopular, again and again.
Health care could and should be a winning issue for Democrats, but voters who already have insurance through their employers will need to hear a better message than "the government is going to take away your health plan and replace it with something terrific." Repeating the slogan "Medicare for all" is just not going to close the deal with those 155 million Americans. Nor is promising that we'll have a health care system just like Norway's. Why on earth would we think those arguments will work?
Also, I agree with Barbara from Maine: "It's about time we all realized that while it might be the economy stupid, it isn't only the economy stupid." To cite one enormous example, the destruction of the environment is increasingly a major crisis. If people don't care about climate change, endangered species, our wilderness areas, pollution and the dismantling of the Environmental Protection Agency--with the effect that will have on clean air and water--then we need to get them to care. And that's not just to win this next election, that's for our future survival.
8
Very good projection, I agree with most of it, except that I see no way that Elizabeth Warren could muster a majority of the popular vote.
If she or Kirsten Gillibrand are on the ticket, they will go down in flames so fast, Trump will not even have to campaign. Which would actually be better for him, as he would get even more votes that way.
I am afraid, the Democrats will be doing themselves in - AGAIN!
8
This article uses a well-worn device to make his point. Best to take it seriously. Eliz Warren will not capture the imagination of the electorate. but it is time for a female nominee for POTUS, if the right person is available. And we must be more than "against Trump." Most Republican leaders are privately against Trump, but cannot get themselves to let go of having the majority control of government and the policy decisions and judicial appointments that go with that. Progressives really need to offer an obtainable vision, credible candidates from a new generation and make the message attractive to more voters.
2
I don't want to go down this road again. Having been both shocked and saddened in equal and overwhelming measure by Trump's election, it seems to me an imperative that the democratic party begin distilling a universal and uniting message. And that right soon. We need to accept that our America outside the urban landscape lifted this man to high office and are fully intent on keeping him there. Relying on his self-destruction is becoming a fool's errand.
"Efforts to impeach the president mainly served to energize his base. Polling surveys suggested that wavering voters saw a Democratic Party more invested in humiliating the president than in helping them."
This is the one part of this piece that is as prescient as anything I've recently read. I am thankful that he wrote it. I am hopeful we are willing to listen.
First question we might ask: What and where is the center of American politics today?
2
If Elizabeth Warren is the democrats candidate, this will be a true story. Only a certain type of woman can go up against Trump, and she is not that woman.
7
As long as Pence does not become president we can all breathe a little.
2
Between the iron gates of fate,
The seeds of time were sown,
And watered by the deeds of those
Who know and who are known;
Knowledge is a deadly friend
If no one sets the rules
The fate of all mankind I see
Is in the hands of fools
2
Donald Trump is not even going to BE president in 2020 so this is just a lot of nonsense.
This is a forecast as if things stay the same. I predict a rockier road and that Pennsylvania and Ohio will definitely go Dem. Don't think Wisconsin will. And it will be a middle of the road Dem running. The broadcasting of radical-left Dems (making good fodder for Repub media) are highly exaggerated. As Thomas edsall wrote today, "In Our ‘Winner-Take-Most’ Economy, the Wealth Is Not Spreading." Then the oligarchyism will get even worse - even worldwide. And T will exacerbate it, since it gets him more media, provides 'love' tweets from his base, and twists the knickers of the Dems' and Repubs'. T wriggles in it all, even if he loses. Actually what might happen is that we will all go down with the ship. How's that for a prediction?
Maslow's Pyramid, please. It's fun and funny until you lose your homes and businesses and can't feed your kids or yourself because of Trump's tariffs. And your kids getting sick because of the pollution in the air and in your water. And not being able to get medical care for them because of their pre-existing conditions. And they keep getting sicker. Once you hit the bottom of the pyramid, it's time for you to do a little self-reflection to realize that you traded the lives of your loved ones for your Fox News fueled hate. You're gonna pray there will be a Warren or a Biden or a Bernie to come save you and your family. Am I exaggerating? Just read that other article on what's going on in Iowa today. Extrapolate to a year from now. Not so funny anymore, huh?
Get used to it, America. We're living in a radically new world order, controlled by Vladimir Putin. Welcome to the United States of Russia, like it or not.
1
Is there a constructive suggestion in all of this?
1
Us liberals knew what the Republican Party was becoming long before Trump was elected. Bret didn't recognize it until it was too late, and now he is once again advising Democrats to seek out mealy, moderate positions that he finds more agreeable in order to combat a majority, radical authoritarian party for which he long carried water. You'll have to forgive me for not taking this attempt at prescience seriously.
2
An interesting projection by Bret Stephen on why Trump is likely to get reelected in 2020. But by bringing up Elizabeth Warren as a likely candidate running against Trump his prediction for 2020 may fall short if the democrats pass the torch to a new generation of democrats and nominate someone like Trump in many ways but nowhere closer to the roughness of his persona.
There is no doubt in my mind that the democrats will have a better chance if they pursue the path of nominating a woman candidate who could win the presidential elections.
Who could that woman be? Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Gillinbrand, Maxine Watters or even Hillary Clinton running again. What could make the democrats more competitive would be none of the above but some one like Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, a veteran of the Iraq war and a politician fiercely against regime change wars that suck up the tax payer's monies.
As an independent, I would like a centrist and not an extreme lefty or an extreme righty. With the country equally divided between the baskets of democrats and Republicans, independence would be too important to lose to the rivals.
2
What a laugher. How about a column about why you were a republican for so long. It's easy to troll Democrats, Trump does it daily. How about a defense of his policies, all of which are mainline Republican thinking. Start with racism, then go on with ripping families apart, dismantling the EPA and then Citizens United. You were part of it for a long time, please do explain.
5
Before 2020 comes 2018. Trump is a traitor, enabled by the GOP. Vote out all of the GOP representatives on Nov 6. Start with Comstock (VA), Meadows (NC), Jordan (OH), Nunes (CA), Gaetz (FL), Goodlatte (VA), Brat (VA), Rohrabacher CA), McCarthy (CA), Gohmert (TX), Steve King (IA). These are all Trump supporters. Bigly.
2
Wow. Wake up call!
1
Is the pattern supposed to be similar to Truman? But, wait! Nothing about President Trump is anything close to Truman. We need better candidates in the Democratic party. It isn't age, it is attitude. In the last campaign we nominated Ms. Clinton; who is, without doubt capable of being Ms. Clinton. Outside the inner circle, many of us were baffled and some of us saw Bernie as an alternative. Blind greed seems to be a major reason for the great depression. Hoover? Does Mr. Stephens think that President Trump will be able to deal with a real run? I hope that never comes, but it is worth thinking about. Please find another Truman, or Roosevelt or Obama. Either Roosevelt would be good.
1
I haven't read through all the comments, but am a little surprised that few seem to have noted a glaring problem with Stephens's assumptions. Could it be just another sign of lingering misogyny that few are rising to Sen. Warren's defense as a candidate? If the criticism of Ms. Clinton rests on her having been a lackluster campaigner, can anyone imagine that Dr. Warren would fail to pour her considerable heart and soul into a presidential campaign, or that her common sense message of a more just and equitable America would fail to energize voters? Sure, the misogynists won't vote for her, but it seems to me that America is ready to get over its misogyny. Or I am just another eternal optimist writing from ever-optimistic Eugene?
4
Warren just announced she wants to raise taxes and doesn't think a top federal rate of 50% is a bad idea. That is sure to lead to her defeat, no matter who she runs against.
1
@Michael McDonald Yes, no one can be opposed to Warren because of her policies or because she is just another phony who got to her position by padding her resume (in her case with Native American ancestors who are her ancestors because that's what her mother told her). It has to be because she is a woman, right.
The old saying is true - 40% of American voters always vote Republican, 40% always vote Democrat, and the other 20% vote their pocketbook. And right now Trump is winning most of those 20% due to the strong economy even though that's mostly a holdover from Obama policies. The ridiculous Republican tax cuts and slashing financial regulations have not yet eroded our economy, but with the deficit topping $1 trillion within the next year and inflation from the tariffs still a couple years away Trump could get reelected and have our financial house crash down around him like Bush did during his last couple yrs. But by then the damage will be done.
10
And then the next Democratic president will be blamed. That's how the cycle works.
2
This is exactly right. And we'll get to see for sure.
1
I agree with Bill Maher: we can survive a recession (we do every time), but not four more years of DT.
1
So, now it's the second term that's the killer? How many times can the sky fall?
3
Sounds about right-but there could be other variations. Someone like Biden or Bernie get the nomination (although the Dems will keep trying to rig the nomination process), and they have some medical issue before.
The chaos and potential infighting among the Dems make this all possible-and/or they go far left and give it to Trump. We're approaching mid terms, and not only is there no dominant figure among them-just a name like Warren, and she would have all kinds of problems.
3
Mitch Landrieu. If dems want to loose, just nominate a northern liberal. I don't know if Landrieu could be persuaded, but he would be my first choice, looking from afar.
1
If we disregard all that is good and just and only accept "It's the economy stupid" Trump doesn't win because The economy is having signs of a downturn. The looming inverted yield curve on the horizon, the Dow is approximately where it was when the tax cuts were passed, even after the buying back of stocks that should have raised stock prices. The price of tech stocks beyond speculative logic could be the start of the recession. So not so quick on delivering that prediction. You may be right that "It's the economy stupid" but that may be why we may see a pleasant surprise and a return of truth to the white house with whomver Dems decide to place there.
4
Next column title: The Decline and FALL of the US of A.
HOW INDEED, did Trump (imaginarily, phantasmagorically) win re-election in 2020? Easy. The same way that Evil will Triumph. Evil will triumph, and Trump good, if people of good will observe it and do nothing. All indications are that there is widespread negative reaction to Trump's pathological lying, so powerful that not only do majorities of Democrats and unaffiliated voters disapprove of the flood of lies in his public statements, in certain instances, a majority of Republicans likewise disapprove of Trump's unrelenting barrage of lies. Dangerously for the survival of the US as a democracy, Trump seems to believe the Big Lie Theory, that, If you tell a big lie often enough, people will believe it to be the truth. In fact, his Tweets reflect a primitive pattern of magical thinking, that somehow his falsehoods, distortions, exaggerations, dissimulations and prevarications of fact neutralize all accurate, factual claims made by others. So the question is, Is the Tweet mightier than the Truth? The polls say that the Truth wins out in the majority of those polled.
1
And I'm sure it's been noted in one of the other thousand comments here, but if 'It's the economy, stupid' was really all that matters then the strong economy in November 2016 would presumably have delivered the presidency to HRC. Bret ignores here the darker, sadder motivations of Trump's base voters.
I agree that 'Abolish ICE' is a non-starter, but thinking that careful calibration to appeal to moderate voters will win over the gentle folk holding the leverage in the electoral college seems to be folly. Hillary tried it and only got the popular vote for her trouble.
I really can't conceive of a candidate or a president much worse than Trump has proven to be at every turn. I'm so sorry to realize that his credulous supporters will be able to hold the rest of us hostage for another term.
Thinking people in blue states can run up huge margins for serious and principled candidates, but MAGA-land can still carry the day. If Bret predicts correctly, we'll have GOP Administrations (and SCOTUS picks!) for sixteen years out of 24 in which the GOP carried the popular vote exactly once.
'It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting.'
Sad, but true.
The only thing I disagree with here is the characterization about Dems being more interested in "humiliating" the President. If, as this article predicts, no evidence is found, then how has the President been humiliated, exactly? And if evidence HAS been found in a criminal investigation, no one talks about how the criminal was "humiliated." We instead talk about how they were *caught.*
I do, however, agree with the general sentiments that a) Trump is actually keeping *some* of his promises to his base, which keeps them happy, even when the impact it has on their lives is in fact negative (i.e. loss of income due to trade wars), and b) Dems need to strike a greater balance between championing social causes and championing economic causes, so that those who don't necessarily agree on the social front might still vote Dem because they trust Dems to help lift them out of poverty.
1
If my party goes in the direction described by Mr. Stephens (and assuming the Mueller probe ends up as he plays out), then yes, I'd say this is a likely scenario for 2020. But there are some big IFs here. Plus, if we could get solid control of the House and Senate in 2020, I might just be willing to make that trade.
Oh stop it already. What if we abolish the Electoral College? Nah!
Do we have to be more than anti Trump of course?. Have an inclusive message on the economy and jobs that includes all Americans from blue collar to white collar American citizens. We can't simply run as moralists because the Right and Trump's base have already put on their blinders when it comes to Trump's deep character flaws. At the same time Trump isn't unbeatable for he is already showing cracks among his base out in the Midwest where farmers and rural Americans are being hit hard by the tariffs. We just have to remind America that Trump is bad for business and our wallets. For he is the same guy who ran a casino into the ground. Finally, to my fellow democrats and disaffected conservatives; stay focused, stay energized, and turn out to vote come 2018 and 2020.
3
Just look at the map of how the country voted in 2016 in today's edition. The Democrats are out of step. And the country looks like East Pakistan India and West Pakistan (now Bangledesh). Two countries of the same culture separated by a bigger country with a different culture. Perhaps we should follow their lead.
2
This is amusing, but the Democrats aren't going to nominate Elizabeth Warren for president.
4
Of late, Bret has spied strange shapes, dark and foreboding, in his crystal ball. And before it's too late, he has come, like a modern-day Cassandra, to warn liberals of his vision of electoral catastrophe: "Behold what awaits thee if thou persist in thy folly."
It's a prophecy of fear, all optics, no substance. To Bret, Hillary's defeat in 2016 boils down to her platform and poor messaging. Comey? Russian hacking? Fake News? Bret thinks most voters couldn't give a fig that or the Mueller investigation.
“What part of Dow 30,000 do the liberals not understand?” Let's put aside the fact the Dow Jones is a flawed, simplistic, and inaccurate economic measure. But do Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown really need advice on an economic message? They've spent their political lives talking about bread and butter issues. FACT: Elizabeth Warren hones in laser-like on economic issues in ways that are both eloquent and powerful. If anybody can show that the emperor has no clothes, it's Senator Elizabeth Warren.
Bret offers well-intentioned but flawed advice. In the Age of Trump, a moral message is inescapable. Just ask George F. Will. But neither will it the only one. My advice: Bret should keep his day job. He's clearly no clairvoyant nor the political consultant Democrats need. His vision lacks vision because the great task for Democrats will go beyond moving the country left or right along a spectrum. They will need to move us higher.
1
This makes it clear how important it is for Democrats to get some concise national messaging and build a narrative. They need a national corporate structure to manage their affairs; perhaps Mr. Soros can get that organized.
The key message, on a one-page PDF that can easily be shared to everyone:
1. The Obama Boom continues, but at pre-Reagan inequality levels you (the bottom 99%) should be getting $7,000 more per year in income. We'll make sure you get that with a Medicare buy-in option to lower your insurance costs dramatically and your kid's college or trade school paid for after completing two years of community college.
2. Unlike Trump's budget-busting tax cuts for millionaires and corporations, we'll raise taxes on the rich and tax stock buybacks to fully pay for our education and healthcare initiatives.
3. Social Security is a priority. By removing the cap on the payroll tax, the top 6% will pay a bit more to cover 70% of the Social Security shortfall for 75 years. All workers will contribute a bit more to their Social Security savings via a 1% higher payroll tax rate to keep the program fully funded.
4. We're going to cut defense spending and cap it at 2.5% of GDP in peacetime.
5. We're going back to the Obama immigration enforcement regime, which helped reduce the number of illegal immigrants from 12 million total to 10 million, a very sustainable number in a country of 325 million.
Any questions?
3
Well done, but you left out the part about how Democratic loyalists are also blaming voter suppression, gerrymandering, the Koch brothers, Russian interference, Chinese interference, Sri Lankan interference, and Gazan interference, as well as a false flag terror incident in Paris a week before the campaign. Also the Electoral College system, thunderstorms in Pittsburgh, and McDonald's lowering the prices on Big Macs. Also a Monday night football game that went late. Also, African-American turnout was flat compared to 2016.
7
You ought to wait for the results of the 2018 elections before making a 2020 prediction. If Trump supporters win in 2018 and if we lose another SCOTUS to Trump, there may not be a 2020 Presidential election - this sick man will be president for life, like Xi of China!
2
Could turn out that way. Probably will if the leaders of the Democrat Party don't find a party apparatchik loyal to them (the 1st requirement, of course) who'll be a better candidate than Liz (or Hillary).
Oh, Bret.
Trump will have tucked tail and moved to Moscow before 2020.
Or he will have tried to move there.
Putin realizes that Trump is no good to him, so sent him off to Pyongyang, where the people all want to touch his funny, yellow hair.
1
This article makes me feel nausea and despondent.
4
It doesn't matter how Americans vote, since Vladimir Putin is controlling our elections in the forseeable future.
4
It needs to be pointed out that, even when the Presidency, the Senate, and the House are all in Republican hands, nothing radical has happened. Trump's idiotic policy positions have always been rejected, latest example being a rejection of the $12B aid for farmers hurt by the tariffs.
There is hope yet for the country.
@RB
"latest example being a rejection of the $12B aid for farmers hurt by the tariffs. "
The $12 bribe to farmers hurt by Trump's trade war has been roundly criticized by many in Congress, including Republicans. But it has not been rejected.
This subsidy (bribe) is legal for the executive branch to unilaterally pay with no Congressional approval required, based on a 1930s law that is still on the books. (Look up Government cheese.)
Congress could act to repeal or modify this law, but they have not yet done so.
Congress had for many years passed laws that ceded much of its power, and the checks and balances envisioned in the Constitution, to the executive branch. Now, under Mr. Trump, we reap what Congress sowed.
Do something, Congress. Take back your Constitutional powers.
5
I hate to say this, but this piece rings true. For example, calls for abolishing ICE are unrealistic and frankly, a very bad idea. While our current immigration policy is broken and unfair, we still need control over our borders and who gets to come over them into this Nation. I am frustrated because if all the voters who sat on their hands and didn't vote in 2016 or threw their votes away by voting for a fringe candidate because the Democratic Party nominated Clinton and not Sanders had swallowed their resentment and voted for Clinton I believe she would have been elected. I am not a big fan of her, but compared to Trump she is Lincoln, Washington, etc., rolled into one.
6
As thrilled as I am with Trump competition is good not only in sports, business, and romance but also politics. A stronger Dem party would make a better Republican party.
But come on. Drop the identity politics, transgender bathrooms, "free" college and healthcare - guess it must be paid for by Santa Claus, the crazy hysterics about guns esp pushed by Cuomo, Hillary, Obama and others who surround themselves with armed security details. Drop the ant-Americanism. Beating up on Trump for asking our deadbeat NATO "allies" e.g. dependents to pay their share? And drop the pro illegal alien stance.
11
If this was Brett Stephen's attempt at humor or satire, it was really not funny. Trump will go down in history as the worst president of all time. The most evil, immoral, corrupt, stupid, lazy and incompetent. But let's not forget that he is also a narcissistic, thin-skinned bully who is really a coward when confronted face to face and has no knowledge of any important policy matters or economics. He is a compulsive liar who divided the country by using fear and racism. The sad thing is that this entire tragedy started with a few jokes. At the 2011 White House Correspondents dinner, which traditionally is a roast, Obama made fun of Trump by insulting him and his TV show Celebrity Apprentice by saying making such important decisions would keep him up at night (when in reality, Obama had just ordered the military strike to kill Osama Bin Laden). You can still see the video tape of Trump fuming, barely containing his fuming rage and anger at Obama. Some pundits and political analysts say that in hindsight, those jokes made at his expense, triggered his decision to run for president of the United States. And if not the main reason, it certainly was a factor. He wanted revenge on Obama, but now the rest of us, in America and the world are paying the price for this Shakespearean tragedy.
5
"Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 run against George H.W. Bush: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Clinton did not run successfully against Bush, per se. Perot and Clinton defeated Bush. Without Perot's 17% of the votes cast, chance are likely that in a Bush --Clinton match, Bush would have prevailed. Likewise Bush II, Gore, and Nader--though to a lesser probability, perhaps.
1
We gotta remember, the good guy does not always finish first....!
1
This about sums it up: "As is his way, Mr. Trump wasted little time rubbing salt into Democratic wounds. “Democrats used to stand with the Working Man,” he tweeted Wednesday morning. “Now it’s the party of Abortion and Amnesty. All that’s missing is Acid. Sad!”
If Democrats were serious about winning, they'd be courting religious folks and touting the practical benefits of so-called 'socialism'... Kind of like the handout Trump just gave farmers. *shrug*
Sure NYT / Bret Stephens; If you continue to ignore the issue of democrats being yanked off the voter rolls multiple times in Georgia in 'this' election season (THIS YEAR) having to check their eligibility status weekly because they've been purged not once, but two and three times THIS YEAR. So sure instead of reporting on this completely corrupt formula which should put people in prison Trump WINS 2020 DEMS lose NOVEMBER!!
1
It's a sad day when events have me rooting for the economy to tank, just so we can throw the president out of office, but there are greater dangers than poverty awaiting us, with a paranoid kook like Trump squatting over the Oval Office.
2
@Jonathan Thank you for your honesty but I hate to point out that most of the country already knows that so-called progressives would rather see the country sink than Trump get any type of a victory - and you don't see any problem there?
Wishful thinking for someone who wants to destroy the country even more than the unqualified trump has already done. Bret, I hope your column was irony because it is almost unbearable to think the insanity and chaos of the trump swamp administration could go on much longer. From trade wars and tariffs that create bailouts of 13 billion $$, to tax cuts for the wealthy that drive the deficit up by trillions, his assault on the environment, and medical care, to tump's love of dictators like Putin and his love affair with all things Russian, you would have to be certifiably insane to want trump to go on one more day. Unless you are a Russian bot troll yourself and wish to destroy and control the US!
1
NYT- Thanks for publishing this fake news that Trump will love. You are now a favored news source for Trump and a must read for his staff.
1
Besides Elizabeth Warren being the Democratic nominee for President, that Bernard Schwartz (Tony Curtis lives!) being that gun shop owner from Texas was the biggest part of this fantasy article!
1
You know, reporters have to create a narrative around the national situation, and this piece is accurate in that it's how this situation would be spoken of in the press. However, we shouldn't fall into the trap of mistaking the press narrative for reality. Studying the detailed map adjacent to this, it's pretty clear that voting today is based on location, habit, tribalism, and making intellectual rationalizations for ones very general emotions, none of which has anything to do with which candidates, what message, this investigation or that political attack ad.
The candidates running can nudge at the margins, and that's about it. Pundits whose job it is to say things, wag their fingers and allege that they didn't nudge right, or they failed to nudge in the right places, when the truth is we credit these ridiculous campaigns as far more influential than they can possibly be in a diverse nation where we're given a choice between two whole people for our leadership once every four years.
The editorial is a good mock up. It's as inaccurate as such coverage would likely be.
A very enlightened scenario - based on unenlightened assumptions. Try running that thought experiment with Bernie Sanders (and, say, Tulsi Gabbard as VP). This is how real change in the America will happen - change that affects MEDIAN income holders, common America. The time is now for progressive politics, with or without this paper. Trump kicked open the door, the establishment's grip is broken, tricks like"electibility" will no longer work. THIS is why I voted for Trump. If Hillary won, real progressive change would be many years away. Time to dump the elitist, neoliberalism - identity politics formula and work toward improving how wealth, education and income opportunity are shared within our country (without relying on the dividends of American imperialism). We're a rich land... but you wouldn't know it from random sampling.
2
So true and depressing so much so that no one on the paper of record’s payroll will raise the issue of the Electoral College. Even a ´moderate’ conservative should, at a minimum, find it outdated. Oy
In one sense, this piece completely misses the point of everything that's wrong with elections and the presidency, because the most likely reason Trump will win again is simply because he won the FIRST time.
You can analyze everything to death regarding what Democrats can and can't do, but the important mistakes were ALREADY MADE in the campaign of 2016.
He very likely will win again, so long as he has not been impeached, or there is no economic crash a la 2008.
Its simply the power of incumbency, and the unwillingness of many people to take a chance on something different.
And you thought Stephens column was depressing!
2
The Democrats have lost the propaganda war before they even fired the first shot, that much is clear. They don’t have the Russians’s almost century old experience in brainwashing the ignorant mass of voters, experience that has been successfuly brought to bear in the vote for Brexit, the rise of nationalism-populism pretty much everywhere and the last elections. Without a clear propaganda attack plan, masterfully executed, I see liberal democracies eradicated not only in the US but everywhere else. The Dems needed to be out swinging with a good plan and great vision last year but intead they still squabble internally divided and broken. I’m sorry but against such a well oiled and aggressive propaganda aparatus, operating freely on all social media the wet behind the ears Dems don’t stand a chance. None. I was born and raised in Communist Romania. The right’s populist propaganda is disturbingly similar to the one I witnessed growing up.
3
Please fellow democrats. Listen to this message as a cautionary tale. We don't have to agree with every bit of it as a prediction. Stop refuting and arguing. Either you get the warning or you don't. We need to open our eyes to reality (not just indignation) or we will lose going forward.
When pushing forward with conviction, head down and nose to the grindstone, it's wise for one to take a break, step back, take stock of the strategy, and ask "Is this really going to work?"
2
Here is what Senator Warren doesn't understand. In spite of a stable(rising?) stock market, real wages are falling . Somehow tax cuts don't translate into more money for working people, most of whom will have nothing, but SSI when they retire. And if Trump and the republicans get their way, there won't even be SSI. On the front page of the Times today is an article about the exploding deficit, but yet you want to tell most Americans that they can't have decent health care or a decent, low cost college education for our children. Their is a disconnect here. If we can't get to these things, like most other first world countries, then there is something wrong with the USA, the wealthiest country to have ever existed.
1
Everything now is upside down . There is no way Trump should be re-elected . That means he’s a shoo-in ! In addition he will avoid any guilt in regards to all the scandals and graft he’s associated with . Welcome to america
And none of it mattered because Colorado and parts of Wyoming and Idaho were all that remained above the shoreline.
1
A lot will hinge on the economy sure. And I have low expectations of a blue wave in 2018. But Trump shouldn't feel safe in 2020 when he won by a margin of less than 100k votes in three states.
That's a razor thin win and it doesn't take very many motivated voters in those three states to flip this whole thing back.
Demographics in Nevada aren't going to change.
This is a call for action from Democrats, not an endorsement of Trump. Stephens has been consistently anti-Trump from the beginning of his tenure at the NY Times.
2
Here's an idea: stop writing dystopian novellas and instead spell out ANY plan that you honestly think could stop this from happening.
Unless, of course, you don't have one.
And if that's the case, why are you even writing this?
2
We are doomed if this demonic man continues much further. The future of humanity is being distroyed by this evil creature.
Please Vote!!!!
I freaked out all my fellow libtards by predicting that the Donald would win (although that was based in part on what a terrible candidate Hillary was), and have to say that this column feels about right on the way 2020 is likely to go. The wild card is the economy; the mega-corporations that were the only real beneficiaries of the tax cut are squandering their little holiday gift on dividends and stock repurchases, not capital equipment, and overall GDP growth hasn't really changed much since the time of Obama's war on country clubbers' sensitive feelings (notwithstanding the predicted blip in Q2 growth). So will we have 3+% GDP growth as Brother Stephens projects, or will we have what many think is a long overdue recession between now and the next election? If you know the answer please get in touch with my broker, stat!
If Our Glorious Leader really wants to insure that he doesn't become a loser one termer, I'd advise that he follow Karl Rove's W reelection model: get some red meat propositions on state ballots; with our new Supremes in place, gay rights and abortion should bring out the Red Army. Oh yeah, and invade another country.
1
Ross, you're assuming the mid-terms won't change anything. Most Americans now believe that the President is acting more on behalf of Russia than the U.S.
Wow, what irresponsible journalism in a national crisis. Would the NY Times during WWII have published a dark and defeatist fantasy of Hitlermarching down Pennsylvania Avenue in a Nazi victory parade? Of course Trump could be re-elected. The NY Times helped elect him in the first place with the nonstop coverage.
3
kill me now
2
I agree with Stephens. Proposing an alternative to Trump that amounts to an equal and opposite case of upheaval and chaos will lead a majority of voters to conclude "let's give this a fair try before throwing it out."
For better or worse, we must sweat out the disease of Trumpism before the opposite becomes a viable alternative. If we're lucky, a majority will say, "let's end this chaos and restore government as it used to be", and skip living through another four years of delusion and derangement".
2
The Dems deserve some criticisms, but not these. Progressive ones stand for a clean economy, protecting water, air and natural resources, and a living wage, for starters. Medicare for all and free college would be possible if our military budget and involvements were not so vast. (No major war? what country are you talking about?)
Why does BS use his column to feed dt ugly talking points, more potential lies to serve up to his base of "christian" hypocrites? What a waste of space.
This article is prescient. I can see all of this happening. In fact, I deem it likely. Now that's really sad! I hope he's wrong. Wake up Dems.
The Democrats are going to lose to Trump again unless the internal dispute over economic policy between the moderates and liberals is resolved and soon! Moderates, older, usually more monied than liberals, usually married, set in their ways and weaned on the erroneous ‘economic liberalism is socialism’ argument are scared to vote for an economic populist for fear of losing, ruining their own finances and the economy. These Democrats, who forget that Obama is a liberal, are poised to make the same error we made in 2004 and 2016, choosing a “safe” moderate Democrat to challenge Trump. After all, W and Trump were demonstrated lightweights who would be easy to beat, so why risk scaring people. To my “fraidy cat” moderate Democrat friends, I ask: “How did the safe electoral strategy undertaken in 2004 and 2016 turn out?”
3
Left out of this phantasy is the continuing massive intrusion of foreign meddling in the election of 2018 and 2020 which left New York City (even the village) appearing to vote overwhelmingly for Trump.
1
Horribly depressing, yet quit eating possible. We Democrats have to push on those aspects of the economy that are relevant to most Americans but which get little play - - that unemployment is down, but wages are stagnant; that the tax bill has not benefitted the middle class (the Republicans like to play up the increase in the standard deduction, but they never mention the loss of the personal exemption); that tariffs imposed on the importation of foreign goods are actually just another “tax” on everyone; and that Trump’s recent bailout of the soybean farmers is basically a bribe to play to those in the Midwest who voted for him. Sure, on the surface, the economy looks great. But dig a little deeper and ask those who are in it if they are better off than they were two years ago, and you’ll see that Trump’s claims are yet another lie.
Nov 4, 2020
Columbus, OH
In one of the most unusual presidential races in American history, Democratic candidate John Kasich defeated incumbent Donald J. Trump in an electoral college landslide. Only Wyoming and Mississippi delivered a majority for Trump.
In a victory speech at his campaign headquarters in Columbus, OH, Mr. Kasich said, "The American people have spoken. We are still one nation, united. And we are united behind our common values in decency, opportunity for all, and a better future. And I promise all Americans - even if you did not vote for me - that I will be your president. I am honored to have the opportunity to work for all of you."
President Trump has refused to concede the election. In a late night tweet, he said, "The election is invalid, and was rigged by the FBI, CIA, and Deep State. This unfair and fake outcome cannot stand. Rise up, my people, and exercise your 2nd Amendment rights! #MAGA"
Asked again about his party change after the Republican Primary, Mr. Kasich said, "I did not leave the Republican Party. The Party left me. My principles and beliefs remain the same. But now is the time for our nation to put partisanship aside and come together as Americans."
3
Dear Bret,
You forgot the part where the San Andreas fault kicked in with a 9.5 on October 15, 2020 and wiped out much of the West Coast. Donald Trump wins the popular vote too. Trump said it was a sign from God. He declared himself to be president for life and anointed Ivanka to succeed him (seeing as how she wasn't running a business anymore and had some time on her hands).
Bret, if you are going to go all dystopian on us, go all the way. RAW
2
Why does Stephens think that you can only support economic policies that raise wages and promote access to good jobs if you also deny trans people's right to use the bathroom?
1
Dream on, Mr. Stephens.
1
Your column makes a lot of assumptions. The most significant assumption being that Trump will not implode on the international stage beyond Fox News ability to gloss over.
From Vietnam to Iraq, one of America’s greatest handicaps is it’s inability to invasion an outcome wholly different from the concensus view.
Granted millions are gaga for Trump and his lies, but let’s not underestimate Trump and his minions ability to create a disaster not even Russian meddling can rescue Trump teal from.
Silly Brett. In 2004, did you predict massive economic failures in three years? Did you predict runs on banks (hello, 1930!) in 2008? Or did you think, along with all the other Republicans, that the Bush tax cuts were going to launch us on a path of unstoppable growth and prosperity.....any day now.....it’s gonna happen, just wait? To predict that DJT will have a rip snorting economy in 2020 is laughable. Even Saint Reagan of Conservastan had to run on “Stay The Course” in 1982 because his economic plans were not delivering (“According to the Washington Post, Reagan used the "stay the course" phrase while on a ten-day political campaign through fourteen states, and it was included in his 1982 budget message, where he sought to allay fears that his policies were causing a recession.”). No, the main danger is that despite all evidence to the contrary, DJT will campaign on all his “winning” and how he alone was fixing things and don’t believe yer lyin’ eyes because DJT will tell you how things are.....and his desperate acolytes will keep believing him.
1
Really? I take this a right wing fantasy in disguise as a cautionary tale. Stock market soaring? Mueller probe fizzles out? This economy is headed towards a cliff and there are now at least half a dozen very serious criminal charges this con man is facing. If the Republican Party continues to hitch it's wagon to this traitor it's hard to see how it lasts as a viable political party. Nice try though!
2
As a warning, Mr. Stephens has nailed it. I am a retired university professor and live in a very small town on the west coast. The county I live in went for Trump in 2016. I listen to what the locals, who are not dumb and who are rather well informed - NY Times readers might even say surprisingly well informed - have to say about national politics. Many voted for Trump knowing full well what sort of a person he is. They did so for three main reasons, so far Is I can tell. 1) the loss of jobs to foreign countries - for example, they aren't happy about lifting hundreds of millions of Chinese from poverty on the backs of American workers; 2) they don't like the (alleged) know-it-all attitudes of the people leading the country, whether Republican or Democrat, and they don't like being told what the morally correct correct attitudes should be in regard to, e.g., gender equality and immigration, among numerous other things; 3) they wanted to see someone in a position of power in DC who would really shake up the establishment as a possible antidote to their unhappiness - the analogy is hitting a mule between the eyes with a 2 x 4 to catch its attention. In addition, they hate the power of lobbyists and big money on the government and they are sick and tired of career legislators who care more about their perks than the country.
Make of this what you will, but it's what I hear all the time.
5
Much as Stephens is right about the pointlessness of moralizing and random ideological stances devoid of substance or actual policy thought(Abolishing ICE), his suggestion is for Democrats to instead become moderate Republicans?
Is this a warning, Mr. Stephens, or desperate fantasizing by a man isolated from his former party, which has long since cast you and other "Fellow travelers" who believed that taping into primal tribalism and anger would never backfire on you? Where are your idols now? Even with Trump the W. Bush presidency is still seen as a disgrace. "Moderate" republicans are leaving congress en masse or been browbeaten into submission. And you path to victory of the democrats is to behave like them? You have a short memory indeed if you think this country has any more appetite for milquetoast conservatism.
Mr Stephens, this isn't funny any more, and you're part of the problem. You project this trite fantasy as if it's a reality TV show, a thought exercise, amusement.
We're in extraordinarily perilous waters, uncharted territory, with ominous warning signs everywhere. Our government is being led by a drunk driver. Your profession is under cynical daily assault, and approximately 40 percent among us heartily approve of rejecting the very idea of truth in favor of the verbal sewage of a disordered mind.
This kind of political crystal-ball piece used to be part of living in a diverse society that tried to sustain representative government, but we've reached a point where the turbulence is not just making the flight unpleasant; it's starting to break up the aircraft.
4
Stephens offers an important warning, but here are some things what could turn the tide:
Trump's base collapses are tariffs and trade wars devastate every day americans.
3-5 americans can not afford health-care or insurance--people losing their homes, death-rate climbs, people enraged they can't care for their children and aging parents.
War in Iraq--he promised no more stupid wars and our sons are in the Middle East. North Korea is still nuclear ready. All those deals were nothing.
Inflation skyrockets. Food and necessities soar in cost since there are no immigrants to work the fields and farmers can't make profits as well due to tariffs.
Everyday Americans rebel agains the rich getting richer.
Those are looking more and more like our reality.
1
Add in: With the recent death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Trump gets to add another extreme conservative to the court.
1
@James
"With the recent death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg,"
What are you talking about?
1
Trump has lost the popular vote by millions and won the electorate vote by a a few thousands in a few states!
The senate and the house have republican majority but how many people do they represent? In fact they dont have the majority in terms of votes and the minorities are governing this country, how long a democracy can sustain such conditions?
1
@Maurice
Please cease this "popular vote" blindness. Votes AGAINST HRC outnumbered votes for her by 3 million. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian captured 6 million votes.
In other words, more people rejected Liberalism's program than supported it. Considering the poor quality of Trump, an HRC defeat should signal to Democrats and liberals that their positions are not nearly as "popular" as they think they are.
2
But yet there were more votes AGAINST Trump. 3 millions more votes.
1
I'm dubious that the economy will be as good as this thought exercise. However I agree if the Democrats go full left during a good economy and nominate Warren or Sanders, or make Abolish ICE the centerpiece of their platform - we will lose.
4
I think a much more likely scenario is that the economy will go into a slow decline beginning this autumn, and then will take a nosedive in 2019.
Trump's narrative will be to blame this on the Democrats taking control of the House.
2
@David I
"Trump's narrative will be to blame this on the Democrats taking control of the House."
Agreed, he will try to do that. But Democrats will effectively brand this as the "Trump Slump."
2
"Gender-neutral pronouns and bathrooms or good jobs and higher wages?"
Social liberalism and a dynamic economy that offers social mobility are not mutually exclusive-in fact, quite the opposite. Democrats-and thinking Republicans (there are plenty of Republicans who oppose the crusades of social conservaties)-need to explain this to the broader public.
2
As much as I would like to believe that Bret Stephens is wrong in his assessments, I fear that there is a good chunk of truth in his predictions. I want to vote Democrat and will, however I feel we need to create a strong message that will support the workers, the students and the immigrants, as well as keep from over extending our promises without any economic realities behind them. I have not seen such a message yet. We cannot be all things to all people or we will have a diluted, weak and losing message. We need better leadership.
1
We need a special name for those (like Bret Stephens, George Will, Jeff Flake, etc etc etc) who hold to disgraceful and often psychotic Republican values, yet act incensed when a perfect expression of Republicanism like Trump comes along.
5
This country is no longer a dream, just an economic machine that's too big to fail. This Machine openly tolerates 'inefficiencies' in human capital, all which can be attributed to neglect and greed-the failure of a government opposed to governing.
In one of the few countries wealthy enough to address grander questions of morality and basic humanity, we've killed that part of our society that cares about anything other than immense wealth and the appearance of strength.
This article reminds me of the zero acceleration point, just before an object that has been pitched into the air begins to make its fall towards earth. Without anyone working to move to higher elevations, we are destined to plummet to the ground . . . gravity doesn't quit, but we as a collective community have quit to advance toward what could be.
6
Trump wins in 2020 because all Presidential candidates who seek 2nd terms win. The last incumbent to lose was Jimmy Carter in 1980. The last before that was Benjamin Harrison in 1892. What about Taft? What about Hoover? What about Jerry Ford? What about Bush 41? None of them were really running for 2nd terms. They were running to extend the previous two-term Presidencies of McKinley and TR or Harding and Coolidge or Nixon or Reagan. Different rules apply. Of course, my rule about Presidents winning 2nd terms isn't a rule of science. It may just be a lot of coincidences. Nevertheless, brighter minds than mine need to figure out the valuable reality of incumbency and how to overcome it in order to beat Donald Trump in his re-election campaign.
1
@Bruce
"The last incumbent to lose was Jimmy Carter in 1980."
Incorrect. George H. W. Bush lost his bid for reelection in 1992.
2
@MidtownATL I said that about Bush 41 in my original comment, but maybe I was too vague -- Let me make the comment another way --
"The Republican candidate will win the Presidency in 2020. It doesn't matter who that Republican turns out to be -- Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Ivanka Trump, or your next-door-neighbor. The American people almost always give a political party at least 2 terms to be President. The last time the American people did not allow a party to win 2 straight Presidential elections was 1980 when Jimmy Carter lost the election for the Democrats. The time before that was 1896 when Grover Cleveland lost the election for the Democrats (although Cleveland had already been President for 2-terms, which is why I used Benjamin Harrison in 1892 as an example in my original comment). While not a rule of science, that's a long time. In order for the Democrats to beat the Republicans in 2020, they have to overcome the voters' desire for a party getting at least two terms as President. The Democrats have not found a way to do that yet."
It's quite possible that all Bret Stephens' reasons for a Trump win in 2020 pan out - superb economy, disorganized off-message Dems - without a Trump win. Reason: It's really hard to engineer two minority presidential wins in a row. Hopefully though, Dems will take Bret Stephens' message to heart and come up with a solid mainstream campaign that retains Dems, appeals to Indeps, and peels off some Repubs.
2
Mr Stephens, some of us first heard of Elizabeth Warren thanks to a video of her Jefferson Memorial lecture titled 'The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class'. Do you really think she wouldn't focus on the economy?
(Let me jog your memory: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A )
The best Stephens has written in a long time. AND, readers are arguing with him, instead of carefully considering the advice and warning in his article. Some of the comments are juvenile, and most don't address the issues Democrats face. Weird. Sad, really.
6
@John Xavier III...
"...Some of the comments are juvenile, and most don't address the issues Democrats face...."
Certainly says a lot about how seriously the Democrats are willing to face the issues that cost them the presidency in 2016 and the more than 900 seats at the political tables in the state and federal governments.
3
If this doesn't galvanize the opposition, nothing will!
2
I say again. The electoral college is responsible for the situation we are currently in. Take a look at how the electoral college works
* as found on the US Electoral College website below.
Are there restrictions on who the Electors can vote for?
There is no Constitutional provision or Federal law that requires Electors to vote according to the results of the popular vote in their states. Some states, however, require Electors to cast their votes according to the popular vote. These pledges fall into two categories—Electors bound by state law and those bound by pledges to political parties.
The U.S. Supreme Court has held that the Constitution does not require that Electors be completely free to act as they choose and therefore, political parties may extract pledges from electors to vote for the parties' nominees. Some state laws provide that so-called "faithless Electors" may be subject to fines or may be disqualified for casting an invalid vote and be replaced by a substitute elector. The Supreme Court has not specifically ruled on the question of whether pledges and penalties for failure to vote as pledged may be enforced under the Constitution. No Elector has ever been prosecuted for failing to vote as pledged.
https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/electors.html
2
Would somebody, please, tell me ONE thing trump has accomplished that is unequivocally good for the “ man in the street” ?
3
@BBH
tax cuts cover 80% of taxpayers
1
that save the guy on the street whooping 30 cents per week. Great accomplishment
1
I don't understand why people keep overlooking the fact that Trump won the electoral college by slim margins, like less than 90000 votes In three states combined, He lost the popular vote, Russian interference, and African American turnout was low, and James Comey's stumbling. These conditions combined elected Trump. In Stephen's mind, something else happened to get Trump elected. I wonder what he think it was, and if truly believes in it?
1
Let us all beg B. Sanders to not run his campaign again that will do nothing short of dividing the hopeful democratic electorate for a second time. The party needs a candidate who voters can stand behind and not fall for the okie-doke from some dreamer past his prime.
And who would be such candidate? Hillary Clinton?
@James C I agree that the idea of a pro-environment, pro-science, anti-war, anti-gun politician winning the Presidency in a lunatic asylum like the United States is completely out of the question.
Unfortunately this probably paints a fairly accurate picture of the ignorance of a good portion of the American electorate.
5
Yes, let's be sure to get on board with the conservative agenda, posthaste. Mr. Stephens thinks we might lose! It always make me laugh (better than crying) when conservatives point their fingers at Dems / liberals to tell us what we are doing wrong. What did conservatives do wrong, that their party came to be led by a dangerous buffoon?
1
Easy enough: You accurately identify the poison and cause of death, but what is/would have been the antidote? Would truly like to hear your thoughts on that.
2
“What part of Dow 30,000 do the liberals not understand?” says Kevin O’Reilly. A more callous and smug retort you will not find. But this is typical of the incredibly shrinking GOP diehards, who will obviously follow any con-man and wannabe tyrant anywhere, as long as it inflates his 401K.
4
So predictable, it's predictable.
3
A grim and unsettling prophecy, but I’ll place my bet that it’s final outcome is accurate.
Sad to say, I find that I’m becoming numb to the startling headlines and outrageous tweets, and am just hunkering down and hope this listing old freighter doesn’t finally capsize and send us all into the abyss... The cry of “wolf” no longer alarms me - I’ve been desensitized.
Looking at the political/voting map that The Times has on site today, tells me that the American public is tired, fed-up, and ain’t about to take it anymore: (1). Supporting people who don’t want to work and who believe that the rest of us owe them a living. (2). Illegal immigration. (3). Pretentious, self-righteous intellectuals who get positive reinforcement from showing the world how generous and pious they are - with tax dollars. (4). Those who make the mistake of always equating moderation and med-level conservatism with ignorance (deplorables).
Folks don’t care who’s derrière your squeezing or how much you cheat on your spouse or that you’re watching way too much TV. Just as long as they’re kept safe and relatively comfortable. They’re desensitized, too....!
See ya all at the voting booth......
4
With wealth gathering as our official State Religion, The Donald can do no wrong.
What was that biblical line about the wealthy, camels and eyes of needles?
Fake News!
1
Hey buddy. Let me ask you something. Do you think it's possible to go back to the "good old days" of moderates and centrists? Because if you do, I have some pictures of children in cages you should see. I have footage from a nazi rally in Virginia where a young woman was murdered by - yup, nazis. So if your point is that swinging left will cause us to lose, yeah, it might. But at least we're fighting the real fight, instead of capitulating to wealthy, white oligarchs bent on global white supremacy.
9
Nice try, Bret. And kind of cute too. But the reality of the Electoral Map just won't wash with your "analysis" or "prediction" which is mainly wishful thinking on your part.
Stephens may be right; America just may be stupid enough to reelect Trump. But never forget: Trump is a vile racist through and through. As such, he stands against the very ideal of America, and can never unite the country or mobilize its better angels. Neither can he be a force for good in the world at large. His climate denialism and trashing of the environment put him in direct opposition to the future of humanity itself. Therefore, for millions of Americans, even if the Dow goes to 100,000 and the entire planet kneels at his feet, any support of this monster is a Faustian bargain, akin to the adulation that Hitler received after the annexation of Austria.
3
I normally enjoy Mr. Stephens' columns, but had to stop in helpless laughter at the beginning of the 3rd paragraph.
Elizabeth Warren will not be the Democratic candidate:
Here's my reasoning:
Despite barely retaking the House in 2018, the Democrats are desperate to cut out the cancer that is Trump. To do so, they will nominate a middle-aged white male from the heartland, so that not even the undemocratic Electoral College, nor the machinations of the democracy-hating Republican party will save the sleazy gasbag (or the gassy sleazebag). This scenario works as long as Russia does not manage to seize control of the actual vote-tabulating machinery.
If Mr. Stephens had written 'Senator Sherrod Brown' at the head of the ticket instead of 'Senator Elizabeth Warren', there is no path to a Trump re-election.
Dan Kravitz
2
Adolf Hitler brought unemployment down from 6 million to 300,000. In infrastructure he built the autobahn. In industry Germany made great strides in innovation and invention. He made Germany Great Again, restoring its place as a dominanting nation.
He certainly deserved support in 1939, huh?
6
And Hitler garnered a lot of support by improving the economy after the horrible Wiemar economy. I agree that with the right setup, a strong economy after years of a bad one, a little extra money will cause people to overlook previously unthinkable atrocities. Just because it might not win elections as easily as a government payout doesn't mean we all shouldn't stand up to support our country's core values.
I'm tired of looking at this through a partisan lens. We need to start looking at it through an American lens. Despite our party differences there are values that our country has always believed in. This president is undermining those core American values every day: freedom of the press, belief in the truth, faith in an educated populous, the value of a free democracy, among others.
The other day I read on twitter a Veteran praising Trump for getting help from Russia to win the election because he would rather have Russia undermine our democracy to seat a Republican than have an American Democrat. If this is what people believe our problems are much larger than 2020. Americans of character everywhere who care about our country should think beyond winning the next election to maintaining what has always made our country great.
5
I don't understand your intent here, Mr. Stephens. When I first stumbled across your alternate form of reality I was more bemused than confused. You certainly write well, but recently I find reading your column is a bit more like reading Kathy's journal from 'Never Let Me Go' by Kazuo Ishiguro. If that was your intention, hats off to you! You very nearly succeeded. I certainly could not hope to aspire to that level.
Perhaps I'm still in mourning for the America I remember before the 70's and not what it has become now. These people who have raised such a man as Trump, to have placed him on a pedestal and guard him there even as he is busily tearing their livelihoods and lifestyles apart is just sheer confused bewilderment. And in all likelihood if they don't make him emperor they will certainly continue voting for other low-lives such as him. Maybe even vote in a dog or cat!?! Wouldn't that be great fun?
The USA is a malicious joke now. I doubt anyone takes it seriously anymore. It has elected an old man who has the personality of a toddler into the most important seat of responsibility and applauded him as he destroys everything that made America great and enviable. I don't find any humor at all in it because it is real and it is not going to stop now that has begun.
Unfortunately, I believe there is truth in this story, I also don't believe Trump will give up power after his second term.
1
The economic "forecast" is based on Fox News. It ought not be forgotten, the economic cycle is approximately seven years long. We're in Year 7. A trade war is starting. Any conjecture that doesn't consider that is "incomplete."
A little bit of a stretch given that if Trump was still president and he was re-elected there may not be a free press from which this article could originate.
1
I totally appreciate this piece, although of course it makes numerous assumptions -- several of which were chosen for their tragi-comic value.
However, it is just as likely that the stock market will crash before 2020, dump us into a recession, and take Trump with it. We are a long way into a bull market, and if it lasts until 2020 it will be the longest one ever. If that happens soon, it will be free for all among Dems in the primary as the chances of "Any Dem" winning will soar.
I don't know enough about your politics to know how sound this prediction is.
But I can tell you that it's terrifying, and catastrophic, if true, for the world.
As the upstairs neighbour, please please don't let this happen.
2
What a bunch of malarkey. The Democrats will not win the Senate in 2018 because of how few Republicans are up for re-election compared to Democrats. In the next 2.5 years Trump has to win the trade war with China. Successfully renegotiate NAFTA. Denuclearize the North Koreans. Have the economy grow by greater than 3% to pay for his tax cuts. Not shut down the government because of not funding the wall. Not start a war with Iran. Not have the price of oil hit $100 a barrel because of sanctions on Iran. Not have States declare bankruptcy and bail them out.
And oh, by the way, he has angered the environmentalist, LGBT community, women, farmers, families with pre-existing conditions, students with debt issues, the various downstream industries of steel, FBI agents, teachers, gun victims, non whites, religious minorities, and most people who are educated.
If he can overcome all of the above and get reelected, it will be because of a swan event.
2
Democrats may be wrong, but I Really do not buy Clinton mantra , economy stupid in 21 century. in 1990's it may have value but not in 21century.
Stephens column is many perspective can fit at best may be early 2000.s but 2020 America many thing will be different.
#1 Economy is in very good shape , except 1% we are just watching, that good economy in fcat is not touching our lives like 1990's , that is why Trump won 2016. That is why he is going to loose 2020.
It is not tariff war or anything, It is 21. century expressing its changing face, that face neither Democrats nor Republicans are ready to confront.
I agree on thsi column one thing, IF eleizabeth Warren going to be candidate of Democrats , yes we will loose.
There is only one person at this moment can carry democrats in WH, Joe Biden .
Mr. Stephens you are a very good columnist But let's accept thsi one is a cliche and it is nothing to do with 21st century politics. Even trump win 2020 , he is still be the president for the dying part of America's vintage dream , 18950's style macho man culture last throes. nothing more.
In today's world Almost 90% of people are oblivious what is coming over us.
2
A frightening, but necessary, article. I despise Trump and agree with the Mueller investigation, but running campaigns exclusively, or even mainly, on Trump hate and/or Russian collusion is a losing battle, especially with swing staters living in economically depressed areas.
2
I very much respect the writing of Bret Stephens and the fact that he has taken principled stands against this authoritarian regime. That being said, this piece brought me to tears. It is my worst nightmare scenario. The #resistance needs to stay together and keep reminding the electorate that they must support the "lesser of 2 evils" no matter who that is against Trump. A terrible mistake was made by people voting third party or not voting. @Ellen4Democracy
If the economy is really still going strong in 2020, then I suppose he will be reelected, regardless of all any crimes and misdemeanors. However, I personally doubt that will be the case. So many of Trump's actions seemed designed to hurt everyone but the wealthy: lost tax revenues, outrageous deficits, reduced social benefits, trade wars, education cuts. It also seems unlikely that the recovery that started after 2008 will continue another 2 1/2 years.
I wish I had a dollar for every conservative today who is warning Democrats NOT to run campaigns like successful Republicans.
"In exit poll interviews, Mr. Trump’s supporters frequently cited the state of the economy to explain their vote. “What part of Dow 30,000 do the liberals not understand?”
The part where Trump ran AGAINST Wall Street, painting in 2016 Hillary as a corrupt Wall Street insider, then flip flopping for the millionth time by pointing TO Wall Street as proof of a strong economy.
See how easy it is to deflect when you have so much to work with.
9
This is indeed a cautionary tale and should be read as such. But it also demonstrates the folly of predicting the outcome of the 2020 election, even as a cautionary tale. What did Mr. Stephens predict in 2014 about the 2016 election? Let's worry for now about the 2018 midterms.
1
As much as it pains me to admit it, Stephens has a point. Democrats need to get out in front of the basic economic issues, health care, job growth, education, etc. and put the identity politics on the backburner for the time being. Trump's failures to deliver in these areas, for the average middle class family, is an opportunity that the Dems seem to be on schedule to squander.
6
The author attempts to tell a cautionary tale. The Democrats have not yet found a message that reaches Americans who are most in need of being reached. The author reminds us that a state’s Electoral College value goes to a candidate whether 20% or 90% of the voters turned out.
If one compares the states that awarded their EC votes to Trump in 2016 with the states that awarded their EC votes to Clinton, one finds two interesting facts. The first is that despite the traditional notion that the GOP benefits from deriving support from states which are over-represented in the Electoral College because small states have fewer people per EC vote than populous states (Wyoming’s 580,000 residents enjoy 3 EC votes, or 1 for every 193,000 people; California’s nearly 40 million residents dispose 55 EC votes, or 1 for every 719,000 people), the states that awarded their EC votes to Trump actually have a worse ratio than the states that supported Clinton. Clinton’s states had an average of 1 EC vote per 497,000; Trump’s states had an average of 1 EC vote per 536,000. The second interesting fact is that victory for Trump was very narrow in several populous states, which means that the Republicans are getting better value out of their voter appeal than the Democrats.
So if the Democrats don’t figure out how to broaden their appeal, they will continue to run up uselessly large majorities in places where their lack of a real message doesn’t hurt them.
1
If Mr. Trump is still around by 2020, someone like John Kasich will challenge him in the GOP primary. If Kasich is not the Republican nominee, he will run as an independent and split the Republican vote.
5
Bret's right. The Dems don't have a great candidate and
no platform. It's just the anti-Trump party. I'm just not sure about the projected state of the economy. Rising interest
rates, a lack of skilled workers and a trade war can tip the economy into recession. Inverted bond yields can be a harbinger. But I just don/t understand the Dems. It's like they are from another planet.
2
@Tom
In 2006, everyone thought HIllary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee in 2008. Instead a relatively unknown junior senator from Illinois won the primary, and then the presidency.
4
The current state of affairs is a crossroads for the nation. Either there is accountability for a plainly corrupt president or it is clear that our system does not work. Either there is rational policy to deal with climate change and monopolization and the economic hollowing of our society or there is no longer a question that Congress and the Supreme Court are about ideology only and not governance or law.
There are regions of this country that will not continue to be part of a union that is this dysfunctional. That's reality.
2
Excellent story by Stephens. The scenario is plausible and within the possibilities.
1
Trump's election was a one time event (just like the vote for BRExit), it will never be repeated. So we should not worry about it. The question is, how will we pick up all the pieces once Trump has destroyed all our institutions, alliances and environmental and consumer protections? We need a Savior and I don't see one yet.
1
Democracy, being the truth-based human construct that it is, falters and eventually dies when liars are in power. If Trump is reelected, or another new candidate like him is elected, the country will simply continue on its current path to becoming a pre-totalitarian, "feaux democratic" state. I'm hoping California secedes if this happens, but in the meantime, I'm voting for the non-Republican candidate with the most realistic chance to win and the biggest campaign budget.
1
Sounds good. Sounds right. Let’s hope it goes down that way.
2
Trump will not be re-elected in 2020. But his successor might actually have the smarts to take the shambles Trump and the Republican Congress have left to become the first true dictator in our history.
1
Dems might well lose if Elizabeth Warren is the candidate. Not a moment to go full leftie.
5
Bernie would have won in 2016. Warren wins in 2020. A centrist from the Clinton wing of the party loses. Stop being afraid to be Democrats.
bit of a problem here for the "working man"
Wage growth decline while stock buybacks increase the inequality gap
destroyed medical coverage causing havoc for tens of rmillions
While prices surge from uneccessary and destructive trade wars (and third quarter GDP growth dives as the impact of spending a trillion dollars on a tax increase for the rich) of the
OH and then there's all those women who know a serial abuser when they see one (including melania with the Cohen tapes unraveling daily)
AND then there's all those folks who just don't want to be lied to daily and who know how important a free press and accurate facts are to the administration of their lives.
Don't forget the independents who are apoplectic about the deficit -one trillion a year and climbing (helped by handouts to the folks hurt by the destructive tarrifs.
ps along with the blacks and mexicans who are kinda anoyed withtrumpistan -lol
Adios GOP
Is Socrates on vacation? I was looking forward to his comments on this piece.
1
@Molly Bloom,
No, he is commenting in other stories.
My guess would be his comment wouldn't, didn't fit the narrative being pushed in this Op-Ed.
2
@Molly Bloom
"Beware the barrenness of a busy life."
- Socrates
1
Outspent, out lobbied, out marketed, out gerrymandered, out opinion-ed, out tweeted, out cable news-ed, out professor-installed, out specialty popular booked, out tax advantaged.
The only way for a 'person of the people" to get elected, and elected on their own merits, means to go to one of the educated islands in this country so graphically demonstrated on your map of elections in the US today. If you are not connected to cash cash cash, and special interests with cash cash cash. Democracy for sale! No wonder a truffle like Trump is there, sucking it in.
Things are not always moving inexorably in the direction of our nose.
I look forward to the "emolumented" Trump "tribe" in jail, the recommitment of links between the U.S. and Europe, the fall of Putin, Erdogan, Xi, Orban etc., the downward spiral of the fossil industry, the international commitment to correcting global warming, more presence of women in high positions, and a more "leashed" control of financial entities and other big "business" conglomerates including guns and weapons of war.
Let us not forget the containment of China and let us intelligently induce countries into "democratic mode through economic means.
More respect toward one another (of all races, religious affiliations etc.).
Much less inequality and everybody paying for the waste and debris they cause.
Love of education would also be a plus.
I think more people would be fighting for these ideas that opting for a slow descent into hell.
1
I only dispute one part of Mr. Stephens' prediction; I don't think today's Dems really like Sherrod Brown all that much, probably because he's a white guy and not personally flashy or telegenic, either. I doubt if they'd choose Warren, actually. More likely a Harris/Oprah or Harris/Booker ticket. Since Oprah has already stated her virulent dislike of white seniors , she wouldn't get my vote. Or that of any white senior with a brain.
A cautionary tale, but not unlikely with the democrats ability to screw things up.
Most Americans by far want universal health care. All developed economies have it. Why? Because it is more efficient, fairer, and far less costly. Meanwhile, life expectancy continues to diminish in Amrica, especially for American males. And infant mortality is rising.
The economy is booming in America? Not for the majority of people who voted for Trump. Their wages have stagnated for decades; that is why Trump is in the White House.
Inequality is higher than ever. Trump's remedy? Cut taxes on the rich. How to pay for this? How about cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, which Stephens is implicitly endorsing.
Free higher education? Once upon a time it was argued that free public education would never be affordable. But then it was also said that universal suffrage would never happen. So long as higher education is as expensive as it is now, of course it is unaffordable. But some countries in Europe know how to fix that.
Democrats cannot win in the future if they stay in the center in the present.
J. Luzkow
1
Another fatuous opinion from a dyed-in-the-wool conservative.
1
Shoot me now...
4
As someone astonished that W won reelection, this seems all too possible. With Trump, we could write off one election as a crazy fluke. If he gets re-elected, we are truly lost.
5
I know it's called "Opinion" but the continued lack of any recognizable facts in this section is a huge problem.
"... the president’s abiding popularity in the states that still decide who gets to live in the White House: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida."
As of June 2018, Trump has a -3 net favorability in Ohio and -5 in Pennsylvania. And in Nevada, where Bret predicts he'll pick up extra electoral votes, he has a net -8. And all of these have tracked downwards since this time last year.
It's easy to sneer at us latte drinkers in our liberal bubbles, but without data, evidence, or reportage, it's not journalism.
4
My simple math doesn’t lead to this future article. Assuming Trump won by those 70000 votes in a few Midwest, previously democratic states, all that’s needed is bigger democratic turnout in those states, not the already blue states. I can see that a few Trump voters may have seen the light and do not vote for him. What is hard to conceive is that anyone who did not vote in 2016 or who voted democratic would now vote for Trump, i.e. all new turnout is essentially democratic. Just like the polls missed the white poor and silent trump supporters, they may also miss the passion and commitment generated by women and that people woke up and realized that staying home can be catastrophic. We can also add approximately 4 million new millennials appalled by lack of gun control in their schools. This will be magnified by the passing of many older white trump voters.
I would still prefer that this crook be convicted instead of losing reelection.
4
Let's please stop blaming inaccurate polls- on the eve of the 2016 election, national polls showed Clinton winning within the margin of error, by about the percentage at she actually did win the popular vote.
@LizMill
True, but the point is that pollsters and pundits had Clinton wining the electoral college which is all that mattered
The first job of a newly elected President is to get re-elected. A more scary story would be a recap of President Buffoon's second term, when he is solely obligated to himself and his creditors. For example, what happened after Putin invaded Ukraine or Georgia. (Since I'm from Georgia, most U.S. Georgians would say that would never happen since Georgia has been a solidly red state for years.)
2
I'm gonna save this to check it against reality in 2020, assuming anyone has the tools to assess reality by then.
Its unclear if Bret Stephens aims to frighten, forewarn, or entertain, but given his anti-Trump bias, I'm rather surprised he wrote this--didn't anyone tell him he can attract more bees with honey than weeds?
He's pretty much made this an open and shut case based on assumptions reflecting today, not more than two years from now.
An equally compelling set of predictions could be written to argue the opposite in any number of areas as some dystopian commenters have ably submitted.
it would be more sobering if he took a whack at predicting 2024. Of course by then, he's have to start out by observing his article on Trump's 3rd term will be appearing in FOX online, as the sole sanctioned and allowable repository of "Trump Truth."
3
"Polling surveys suggested that wavering voters saw a Democratic Party more invested in humiliating the president than in helping them."
This should be emblazoned in the mind of every democratic candidate!
The proper frame to defeat the opposition is to PROPERLY FRAME the argument. Humiliation is not the frame that converts voters ... (hint: read today's opinion piece about Iowa farmers which SHOULD be read, memorized and quoted!!) Personal loss (freedom, a farm, a voice, health benefits, ... is!
2
Though it's in plain sight,,,,Very few people,,,,"Get IT",
Bret does...
2
Folks, remember that Bret is a Never-Trumper ... unless he has finally cracked and kissed that rotund bottom. So given that, this piece is either Bret's worst nightmare, or a sophisticated troll.
Trump looks more and more like a grifting King Lear. We've never had a President who gibbers more nonsense and contradicts what he said yesterday more than Trump -- and no sitting president in history has been so reasonably seen as a tool of a foreign dictator and principal foe.
And then as to the economy -- Ryan's budget with its trillion-dollar-per-year addition to the deficit --- any fool can make the good times roll by spending what they don't have .. for awhile. But the bender always ends badly. And Trump is compounding everybody's problems by being the chimpanzee in the china shop, alternately flinging poo and china.
Trump is beset by lawsuits and investigations, and while he roasts dripping grease from his adulteries and payoffs, the real fires are the suits that could expose his business dealings, taxes ... and debts. Watch New York State's investigation into the Trump foundation -- it could put multiple Trumps in jail. Watch the emoluments suit. And of course wonder when Manafort will plea-bargain ... and what he has to do that with.
Trump forgot the fundamental rule of grifting: you're a cockroach. Stay small, move along quickly, stay in the dark, have a good hidey-hole near at hand. When the lights turn on slow cockroaches get squished.
7
Trump will win re-election if the stupid, uninformed people are the only ones that turn out to vote.
On the other hand, there might not even be anymore elections when the idiot Trump declares himself king, and bans elections altogether. That’s a scary thought, but not out of the realm of possibility. Between a totally useless congress and the involvement of the Russians, whose to say?
You vote stupid, you get stupid. That’s why we have Donald Trump in the first place. Surely, we can do better than the likes of Donald Trump.
It really just comes down to the difference between smart and stupid.
1
'Most Germans think the Nazis a bit absurd here, a bit obsessive there....but the time for thinking was over'
- Larry Olivier in the narration to the World at War
10
Yup.
Provocative think-pieces based on hypotheticals are all very well, but let's get something straight. What Trump is being investigated for (among other things) is having run a campaign that benefited from collusion with the Russians. Whether he gave any sort of personal sign-off is irrelevant.
And collusion on the part of his team is pretty obvious at this point, just based on Roger Stone's connections to Guccifer 2.0 and the Wikileaks pipeline into the campaign, and the amazingly useful and convenient timing of the various e-mail leaks. And this is to say nothing of the lineup of of Trump associates who will be looking at jail time once Mueller is done.
The argument that the roster of Russian targets were only fringe participants doesn't fly. The whole campaign was nothing but fringe. Running a shambles organization doesn't take you off the hook when it screws up.
Also bear in mind that Trump's finances are going to make it to the light of day at some point.
4
This is quite a fantasy considering how the economy will tank before the year is out. The delusion that the stock market will hit 30K is rather sad, considering how this orange moron has started trade wars that already have harmed people, and has done nothing except make false claims about no tarrifs or subsidies with the EU. Add to that the fact that Trump is still under investigation for the work with Russia that he so aptly indicates is true, and with the new emoluments case, and this is just fan fiction from wannabee white supremacists.
1
Agree with your sentiments, but that old rubric, “you cant go wrong underestimating the intelligence of the average voter” still scares me. How can a veterans organization applaud Private Bone Spurs ?
2
If Trump and Trumpists prevail it will be because the American electorate is stupid, greedy and vicious.
6
The majority of Americans, corporate America and anyone with a brain or a concience is fleeing from Trump as fast as they can. It is more than obvious that Trump is incompetant and he has been exposed for the treasonous buffoon that he certainly is.
Americans don't want a fascist moron for president. This is not some Red state house seat.
1
What trash! That's all I can say.
2
With Elizabeth Warren running that would be no surprise, but the upside might be that it would finally shut up the Bernsters. The Democrats do need to find a new (younger) voice and a fresher message, one which actually resonates with the people. (I'm pro-choice, but I'm tired of hearing about abortion, abortion, abortion, etc.)
1
Prognosticating about the 2020 election outcome without lending credence to a viable Primary (R) challenger in 2020 (Mark Cuban) at this point may be shortsighted.
It would be wise for each party to break from the mold of the typical politician running for POTUS. While Trump broke the 'politician' ceiling to the WH as an outsider, this could be indicative of an era to come.
Let the politicians in Congress wrangle with writing the laws and passing budgets while someone in the Oval Office conducts the BUSINESS of leading the free world. The (D)s have been tossing around names such as Oprah and other non-political 'elites' after the REALITY of Trump's win sunk in.
Thank you, Bret. This nightmare is all the more horrific by its near certainty. I fear the dems, who yes I'll continue to vote for, are becoming the whigs of the 21st century. Having correct values is a necessary but not sufficient condition to win a national election. One must also have ideas that inspire and compel a broader spectrum of Americans, and a credible plan to pay for them.
2
The same (farm) animals that voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for him again in 2018. The dems, without a cohesive or compelling message, will be unable to displace him. The Republicans have used every weapon at their disposal, from gerrymandering, to voter suppression, to Putin, to win, and they will continue to do so. They will again be successful and it could be some time before that changes given the makeup of Mitch McConnell's Supreme Court. Frankly, when the confederacy declared independence, we should have let them go.
5
Packing my bags for Montreal.
1
I agree with the spirit of this op-ed--I think it's important to say that it's not that identity issues aren't important, but they definitely aren't prioritized as highly as economic issues are, at least when it comes to the voters that Democrats will need to sway back into their corner to win in 2018, 2020, and onward.
That being said, I don't think the Democrats are hopeless. This country desperately needs solutions to the opioid crisis, our growing economic disparities, and healthcare--just to name a few. Whoever runs in 2020 (bless their hearts) has to seek to unite what seems like a polarized country without alienating or whitewashing the real issues that we face as a collective.
In simpler words, good luck.
1
Duh, Mr. Stephens,
Name one Liberal, just one Liberal who voted for Ross Perot?
I'll bet you can name many Conservatives who did. Out of his what 22% of the vote do you think that high number came, Liberals, Conservatives, or Independents?
So it wasn't the Economy, it was Ross Perot who got Bill Clinton elected along with substantial help from Mrs.
Pamela Harriman!
3
The author should quit his job as an opinion journalist and become a financial consultant, as he could make a fortune knowing the status of the economy two years into the future.
4
The very thought brings me close to vomiting.
1
Republicans Joe Lieberman (yes, he may name himself Dem but he walks and talks R), James Comey, and Bret Stephens can’t bear the thought of Dems selecting a leader who isn’t a neoliberal. I really wish you would go back to the Jerusalem Times or wherever you worked, Mr. Stephens. Your column is a magnet for trolls.
1
With all due respect Mr. Stephens, how stupid do you think the American people are? Trump is imploding before our eyes. Only someone with his head firmly insert inside the beltway could possibly miss that.
3
Nice try.
2
If you don't have anything nice to say......
Consider yourself warned.
5
The comments indicate a similar level of anxiety and upset as was evident in 1972 when Nixon's re-election was so certain despite the Watergate investigation. The Dems put up a weenie candidate in McGovern and he, and we, were crushed. But, Nixon came apart soon thereafter. Trump will come apart eventually, too, hopefully sooner than later. The Dems need to put up smart, experienced, aggressive candidates, can the free tuition plan, smack Putin and Erdogan and Kim, quit whining about Kavanaugh and doomsaying about abortion, and don't tie your strategy to the cities. Look at the Times study about the 2016 election and learn from it. Fight a smart fight to win rather than an ideological liberal-progressive waste of time,energy and money. We win when Trump loses - that is the goal.
4
The mantra from the zealot Trumpites in 2016 was,
"We don't want to hear about email servers and Benghazi for the next four years."
I guess they don't mind hearing about Russia, children locked in cages, porn stars, tariffs, fake news, tax breaks for the richest of the rich for four more years.
3
It was a sad day for the Republic when General Grant surrendered to General Lee at Appomattox....
A sneak peek at the Times's news analysis from April 9, 1865.
3
Sic transit gloria. Democracy succumbs to entropy. America becomes a white fascist oligarchy. Asian and Middle Eastern interests buy up all remaining Corn Belt acreage. Fox news opens its news programs playing "Happy Days are Here Again".
1
Yep, any party that allows uppity women to lead is doomed! Can’t let those nasty women out their shackles, boys! Be afraid, be very afraid.
1
I'm just elated he finally tweeted what to replace Obamacare with and drastically cut cost. "America will be great again after you download free PDF of Be Your Own Doctor by Ben Franklin". #maga
1
Gee... another conservative Op-Ed telling Democratic's how and who they should and shouldn't run in the elections.
Never any opinion pieces upon how conservatives can get back control of their party from a despotic dotard they all agree is a raving loon.
No, oddly enough, it is always a hit piece and fear mongering from NYT con. writers about don't run Liberal, Leftish progressives, or Trump et al wins again! Anything but that!
And our 3rd Way Dino's eat it up.
If one was so inclined, one might feel this is just more 3rd Way, establishment propaganda courtesy of our corp. media outlet the NYT. Again.
Complete with a throng of commentators, never seen before, all leaning Right, dissing our Left, flooding the comment section.
But surely that can't be the case...again.
Hang me! Do whatever you please," said Brer Rabbit. "Only please, Brer Fox, please don't throw me into the briar patch." "The briar patch, eh?" said Brer Fox. "What a wonderful idea! You'll be torn into little pieces!" Grabbing up the tar-covered rabbit, Brer Fox swung him around and around and then flung him head over heels into the briar patch.
One might discern a lesson in this story...
4
Dear Bret,
If Trump is still president in two years, it won't be because of the economy stupid. It will be because of stupidity.
Clay Sorrough
Eek!!!!
The author assumes the tariff wars will have been a net negative for Trump whereas 24 hours later after a tentative agreement with the European Union to increase trade and reduce tariffs that assumption appears far from being a certainty.
1
I wish people would stop considering the Dow as the most important economic indicator. It is more an indicator of well the rich are doing, including a lot of non-American rich. It does help those with retirement funds, but does nothing as to raising wages for all those who are not rich or do not have retirement funds
Don't believe the candidate will be Elizabeth Warren. She's a fine person and senator but would not make a good president, or candidate for the presidency. There's time for other more viable candidates to present themselves - maybe Beto O'Rourke? Also sincerely hope we can get a look at Trump's finances between now and 2020 - I think that would sink him once and for all, if not actually put him in prison.
2
This is sickening.
Wait a second. It isn't April's Fool day today, is it?
2
TRUTH must be the winner!! Are you listening BRETT!
1
Before I read this article I first did a quick Google of Bret Stephens and when I saw his bio I decided it was more Trump rubbish so I went straight to the Comments to read what normal people were saying.
Kind of funny how the article didn't even touch on why Trump actually lost the 2020 election------Melania filing for divorce in 2019; Donald Jr.'s arrest on cocaine charges; 10 women coming forward with proof that they were paid off to keep quite about their sexual affairs with Trump; the start up of N. Korea's nuclear tests 3 months before the 2020 election; the sinking of an aircraft carrier by terrorists in 2018 and Trumps response in attacking Iran (that was not even involved); the collapse of the DOW to under 15,000 and the Fed raising interest rates to over 8%. Oh yes, when Trump dumps Pence as his VP for 2020 and chooses his daughter Ivanka as VP with Jared Kusher as FBI Director----that isn't going to help either.
And wait until we see those tax returns !
Dream on Bret.
2
Yes, not to mention the gutting of Social Security and Medicare benefits to pay for the massive deficit caused by the massive tax cut of 2017.
Wow. Sounds plausible. Need Biden.
1
Bite your tongue, Brett.
What's really sad though, is that there's a lot of truth in this prognostication... it's very scary; remember, Cassandra was right! Her curse was that no one believed her...
1
Dear Bret, your scenario is a roll of the dice, just as Trump is Russian Roulette.
It's the economy stupid isn't as smart as you and others think it is- and Trump may look realy dumb by then
Thanks for voting on the right side of history.
I liked the part about the NYT projecting the results correctly, unlike in 2016.
4
Should the Democratic party retake the house or the senate, Pelosi and Schumer will tamp down impeachment talk unless the Mueller report shows criminal activity. The far left can call for whatever, but it will go nowhere.
Here's a clue...you need voters and votes to win. A handful of Ocasio-Cortez's or Maxine Waters won't be enough to change the general direction of the party. Maybe Schumer and Pelosi should be more combative, but don't expect them to change. They will continue to play it safe.
If you want major change, then you need majority votes. What drives me nuts are the leftists complaining that the Democratic candidates aren't inspiring. Well, aren't they precious. Are Trump and his fascist supporters inspiring you now? Does civic duty to vote mean anything?
Here's a clue...more Democrats in Congress means the agenda will veer left. The more Democrats, the more left. the idea that only far left candidates can move the country forward is a fool's fantasy. Even a conservative Democrat is much more progressive than a trumpublican.
So...vote for whoever you want in the primary. But when it comes to the general election, there is only one way to save this country:
VOTE OUT ALL REPUBLICANS
5
Bret you are such a Republican Fox has a place for you I'm Shure. If you are trying to tell us how Republican thinks we see it every day Trump that is the face of your party, as always Democrats will have to pick up after GOP destroys the country. So in other words go Republican lite.
The current stupidity around trade and tax policy (HELLO, deficits!) could change all of this. Stevens should read today's headlines in this very publication.
1
I would say the boldest sentiment expressed is that Trump and his legislative lackeys would allow for a freely contested election in 2020.
My guess would be that the only way that election is not suspended is if we are not at war and the economy is not cratering. I don't think Trumpus has the guts to actually commit to war, Russia already has the blueprint for getting away with an illegal invasion of a sovereign nation. It's not hard to envision an emerging currency to begin supplanting the dollar at an international scale and watching helplessly as runaway inflation creates a fiat crisis. Trump declares a national emergency, Pence resigns under mysterious circumstances, then Jared Kushner is named the new VP. The mad king then has a heart attack one day while furiously tweeting on the loo... The rest is history...
Coming from Stephens, I'm not sure if this is a warning or gloating.
The country sadly is not ready to elect a woman (learn from history or repeat it), so table Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris. Democrats best bet with so little time left is Joe Biden - name recognition, working class appeal, a moral man with a compelling story (and a legitimate first lady) who can work both sides of the isle. Pair him with one of the younger upcoming Dems and you might have a winning combination. Our only hope IMHO.
2
The problem with this column is that, counter to what Mr. Stephens is suggesting here, the actually existing Democratic Party and its actually existing candidates since 2016 appear to be speaking nearly exclusively about local bread-and-butter issues (wages, jobs, health care, child care, education, etc.). As much scorn as the Democratic Party deserves of late, it does seem to have assimilated a few lessons from 2016. So far, Democratic candidates don't appear to have found themselves boxed in by Republican framing, perhaps because the GOP has gone so deep into its white identity politics or, maybe more likely, it's become clear that the Trump administration is corrupt, incompetent, and staffed by some of the worst humans on the planet.
4
If it only comes down to Bretian economics why wouldn't it be a landslide victory? Obviously some very dark impulses would have to be appealed to for Trump to win again. Obama was rightfully called deporter in chief. You would think that would be enough. But what he didn't do was accompany his actions with hateful rhetoric. And being black made him more than a little suspect.
So Trump in addition to being significantly worse than Obama knows what song to sing. So even if Bret wants a more humane ICE he will be accused of wanting to neuter it. Since it is the sound of children crying at the borders that gives it its lustre.
The question of course is which of the most vulnerable people in the society and across the globe will be sacrificed to have a winning (electoral) strategy. For now the conflict on the right seems similar to the one that existed between the White Citizen Council and the Klan.
3
I certainly hope you're wrong but afraid you're right. On the pther hand, you might have the right ticket for the Dems, if you reverse it. Brown/Warren is my ideal ticket in 2020. As we've seen, the Dems need to keep OUR flank happy, just like Repes do. Warren on the ticket would help.
1
Usually, I like reading the comments on NYTimes opinion pieces.
Not this time.
1) It's a cautionary tale, people
2) It's possible (probable?) that Trump will win Ohio, WI and MI again. It is >extremely< unlikely that facts or even reality will make 2016 Trump voters cast ballots for ANY Democratic challenger in 2020. Instead, we should focus on voting numbers.
Let's donate our money and time to registering new Dem voters in Pennsylvania, Florida and Nevada.
And let's make sure the 2020 Get Out the Vote drive for Dems is OVERWHELMING!
2
You give Shirley Jackson a serious challenge in terrifying stories, Mr. Stephens. But I’m always up for a good horror story. You could’ve gone further: Noted how white the country has become with no more immigrants. And how segregated communities are the norm. How the heat is intense pretty much all the time. And what about clean air and water? That will only be for the wealthy. And the amount of deaths of women due to illegal back alley abortions. Wait, this world already exists on Hulu. It’s called The Handmaid’s Tale. Margaret Atwood beat you to it.
Maybe Pence will get his dream IF we’re stupid enough not to vote or we get hung up in our candidates not being perfect enough.
4
I wish I could recommend this comment one hundred times.
Not a big fan of the oft-utilized Trump-Hitler comparison, as it makes the comparers seem reactive rather than historically evaluative, but one only needs to read part of William Shirer's "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" to see how easy it is to put into power fascist governments, and how accurately to history the United States has fallen into this trap.
Decrying half the government as ineffective and acting against the best interest of the people, post-crisis appeals to flawed nationalist ideals, strong state-sponsored support of anti-intellectualism, economic cronyism, suppression of free press, ethnic-based scapegoating, and the opposing party stuck with its hands tied over internal divides and lacking a popular message. All of these factors were integral in putting fascism in power in 1920s-1930s Germany, and all can be seen pretty clearly here today.
Trump is not Hitler, and these comparisons can serve to hurt the overall point that should be made. Hitler became the leader he was because the country permitted small advances on a fascist, authoritarian path until it was too late. The United States as a country has to avoid making the same mistake at any and all cost.
2
It is heart breaking to read this column and wish it is never true. But it is quite possible and I am scared to death. Trump defeated 16 formidable GOP senators and governors who sacrificed so much for the party and the country. Hillary was a flawed candidate but much better than him. The class, mindset and judgment of us, the American voters are drastically changed. Good and intelligent candidates have less chance to win than the loud, shrewd, cunning and dishonest candidate. American voters do not care for character and honesty anymore. Trump can shoot someone on 5th avenue in Manhattan and would not loose one supporter. He is a pro-Russian Putin Puppet or tapes of his extramarital sexual activities are out but still his voters ( including the Evangelicals) love him. Strange America!
4
Ha. Why not go back to WSJ where sanity still prevails. Dems must nominate a mid-Western Airborne Ranger female veteran to win.
This is the most depressing column and set of comments I’ve read in a long while. I’m not sure what to do in the dystopian world we now inhabit. How to work more effectively to preserve a liberal democracy and the values I’ve believed in all my life. Work on a local level only? Encourage conversation and reconciliation with the underbelly of this newly empowered racism, corruption, and anger? Maybe just screaming about the Hastert (pervert) Rule? I hope I live long enough to see us address the forces that got us here, and begin to heal. The power hungry ANGERMEN ——Trump, Bannon, Miller, Sessions and their minions are looming like sky darkening alien space invaders.
1
First of all, the Economy will not be fabulous in 2020. The tech sector is melting down today and that's usually the beginning of a general slowdown. The USA cannot borrow its way out of debt this time. Trump has insulted everyone (China especially) who could buy our debt. The minute the going gets tough Trump will slither back to his NY penthouse and leave the rest of us to clean up his mess.
3
I find Mr. Bret Stevens' musings not only full of self-serving malice, but prone to encourage Democratic pro-establishment policies that would favor a Trump win.
Why doesn't Fox News, in a similar vain of journalistic fairness as shown by the NY Times, hire proponents of truth in the news?
My advice to the NY Times: Fire anyone in its employ that gives comfort to the foes of democracy.
3
This is dead-on. Elizabeth Warren is a wonderful person: smart, down to earth and the perfect candidate in an alternative America. She would absolutely lose to Trump. The democrats need a handsome, 45 year old JFK type with some military experience - someone to make Trump look old and pathetic. Sorry to say it but the country is not ready to elect an intelligent east coast liberal woman.
4
It does seem as if Mr. Stephens has indeed traveled to the future and returned to tell what he has seen. There is no one in the Democrats bull pen who can take down Trump. Elizabeth Warren? Give me a break. Any woman going up against Trump is going to come off as sounding shrill, angry and victimized. Why are the boys always being mean to me? It’s not right or fair but in the “Game of Thrones” world of presidential politics you either win or die. (Cersei is not going to get the iron throne) The Democrats need a strong alpha male -slightly left of center- who can talk circles around Trump, publicly humiliate him to keep him off his game and take from him some of those states who actually choose our president. The left can wallow in identity politics to its heart content but had better get used to President Trump, President Pence and President Cruz.
What a horribly dystopian and grim scenario to throw out into the universe. A cautionary tail perhaps, but one devoid of any hope. Not all of us, an certainly not the rest of the world, have succumbed to the Trump/Borg collective. To even consider that we will throw up our hands, wailing and moaning and capitulate? I think not. The best way to lose a war is not to fight. Have you so little faith Mr. Stephens, have you already given up? Depression and victimization is not a option, it is the cowards way.
3
@Kathy, smarter would be to reloacte to PA and be sure to vote there come November 4, 2020. I am thinking about it.
2
Schadenfreude by Brett. Trump will get reelected because too many Democrats refuse to be Republican light. Moderates will vote for Trump rather than a Democrat just because the Democrat may be perceived as too radical? Is Brett really going to vote for Trump if Democrats do not follow his advice? If that is indeed what happens then US voters deserve Trump and the rest of us should seriously consider either emigrating to Canada or contemplating a US split into Trump country and the rest.
2
This column is not a help and should not have been published.
1
To sum this up, Bret Stephens is saying: If you care at all about social progress you will fail.
This is cynicism.
Well I choose to believe in an America that works hard to lift up everyone. I will vote for candidates that share my hope for a truly better future.
2
After having lost his bid for a second term, President Trump is now facing 113 different indictments, in four different districts. President Warren issued no comment.
2
Conservative columnists like Brett Stephens, David Brooks, George Will, David Frum, et al want to see a Democrat win in 2020 so that the Republican party can rise from the ashes and eventually remake itself into the home of American political conservatism. They look to the Democratic Party to be simply a four year placeholder that isn't so liberal as to offend their conservative sensibilities.
All the advice for the Democratic Party that emanates from these worthies is centered around not being real Democrats; i.e. reformers in the mold of Franklin Roosevelt or Harry Truman. These guys prefer their Democrats to be national security hard noses, fiscally conservative and mute on social issues. They ply their trade by painting any Democrat left of dead center as another Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. She is, by the way, seen as more radical than Bernie Sanders by virtue of her gender. Note that Stephens seeks to scare the beegesuz out of Democrats by making another woman, Elizabeth Warren, the Democratic nominee. It appears to me that Stephens thinks that misogyny still lives in our body politic.
2
I don't know who the Democratic candidate will be but it certainly won't be Warren. A women will never again be allowed to run for the Presidency.
Stephens thinks "the economy" will win Trump a 2nd term. But what he means is GDP and stock values -- not the economic well-being of working families, whose wages are predicted to remain stagnant even while government benefits are scaled back.
And yet Stephens is absolutely correct that Trump's voters will look at Democratic proposals to help working families as too expensive and a return to 2016 tax rates for corporations and millionaires as a threat to economic growth, even while Trump's unfunded tax cuts run an annual trillion-dollar deficit.
But in that case, you can't really claim that Trump voters will be thinking about economics in 2020. Trump voters will once again be voting for him because they simply like Trump-branded white supremacist kleptocracy.
5
You forgot to mention: 1) 20 percent of the population has no health care. Drug prices have continued to soar reflecting the fact that, according to Citizens United, the pharmaceutical companies are "people" and therefore unlimited in the amount of money they donated to Trump's re-election campaign. 2) The annual debt is the highest in history despite draconian cuts to medicaid 3) Suicides remain higher among farmers than soldiers returning from our war with Iran 4) The farmers still alive overwhelmingly voted for Trump claiming the demise of their farms was caused by coastal elites and Trump's promise of continuing to give them billions of dollars of taxpayer money to buy their votes
5) Trump's campaign focused on deporting dreamers (why should they get a free ride?) deporting illegal immigrants (while their children remain in the U.S.)
6) Approving the Koch brothers uranium mining in the Grand Canyon
7) Ease burdensome restrictions on big-game hunters like Eric and Don Jr. so they can bring back trophies of endangered species from Africa and use spotlights to locate dens of baby bears and their mothers in order to shoot them.
3
"... Democratic bastions could not compensate for the president’s abiding popularity in the states that still decide who gets to live in the White House: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida."
What would you do for your country? Move to Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida. I'd move to PA. Lancaster is beautiful. We need to spread out from the cities.
2
Wow Bret, you hit it right on the mark. My hope is that it is read by those who have access to the money that will run the 2020 Presidential campaign. My Trump supporting friends say disregard what he says, disregard how distasteful he is personally and look at the economy and his policies.
1
I'll have what Stephens is having.
Bloomberg could beat Trump. He should run as a Dem with Sanders or Warren as the VP.
2
Making predictions is hard. Especially about the future.
sadly I really agree with this post. democrats need to worry about making sure Americans have jobs... and not as uber drivers, which is what san francisco is riddled with. they are getting in their own way and not focusing on the problems at hand. jobs and the economy. after those things have been dealt with then we can worry about gender neutral-pronouns. without doing so where are my fellow neutral-pronoun friends and family going to to pay for housing? which one is more important? food on the table? roof over your head? or whether I say she/he/ they/their? lets beat trump by upending the fact that he thinks he has something to do with the economy! lets make sure people aren't just uber drivers!
then we can make sure proper pronouns are use, racial equality is in tact and amnesty is acquired.
no?
Is this satire? So lovely of the NYT - in the name of inclusion - to have a symptom of the US's decline represented on its staff, not just part of the solution to it. The witless partisanship, the ideological perversity, the moral bankruptcy, the empty patriotism, the selective blindness - it's touching to be reminded of it, the Emperor's wearing no clothes! And he's carrying no sword.
For starters Bret: where did you get the opinion that the health of the Dow Jones gives an indication of the state of the overall US economy? Trump University?
It's on the historical record that you cheered for a much bigger symptom of American decline to be able to continue that process. Because he's on your side. GOP! GOP!
2
Love Elizabeth Warren, but her year should have been 2016. (Robbed by the Clinton cult, and sadly, she would have beat Trump.)
Now we need someone just as outspoken, ascerbic, quick-witted and unafraid of Trump, with solid liberal cred and double charisma. I'm thinking Tom Hanks or bring back an apologetic, reformed Al Franken. Seriously!
The GOP couldn't couldn't latch onto Franken's little misdemeanors without inviting comparison to Trump's sordid affairs. So they wouldn't go there. And Americans love a comeback story! Either Hanks or Franken would be sharp and fearless enough to make complete mincemeat out of Trump. And Americans of all stripes would love the entertainment.
C'mon now, wouldn't you love to see this debate?
2
Wow, Bret, that was good. No need to have the 2020 showdown. Trump might even carry Minnesota this time, something even Reagan couldn't do in 1984 (the one state Mondale won was Minnesota, NOT Wisconsin.) Trump will win in '20 easily, despite CNN's prediction of Warren's election six weeks before the votes are cast.
2
A wise man once told me “you don’t know what good or what bad a president as done until about 4 years after they’ve left office”
In my experience that’s about right - our economy is currently still benefiting from the thoughtful and responsible action by the Obama administration, after Bush and the GOP ran the US and most of the world into a financial ditch. Remember that folks?
When Obama took over our country was close to a second Great Depression and he did an outstanding job dealing with that crisis.
We’ll see real Trump affect, at least his supporters in the Midwest and South will see it in and feel it in about 4 more years and I’m afraid it won’t be pretty.
3
Trigger warning!
1
I'd like some of what you're smoking.
1
Lest you forget, Brett, your party gave us this dangerous idiot.
2
I get Trump...I can't even think of sufficient and appropriate adjectives to describe the man. However, the biggest mystery to me is other American voters - "...their reflexive defense of him prevents them from even entertaining the fairest of criticisms..." Now that is something that is as incomprehensible to me as quantum physics. I mean, I just - do - not - get - them. I guess if Democrats could figure that conundrum out, they might get somewhere in the upcoming elections.
3
The premise of Mr. Stephens story is that President Trump is reelected because voters in the swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida feel the state economy (described as very similar to the current one) is working for them. They do not feel this way and will not in 2020 unless wages start growing significantly. Dissatisfaction with the state of the economy is exactly what won the election for Trump in 2016 and will lose it for him in 2020.
I suppose what Mr. Stephens is really saying is that progressives are dangerous to the Democratic Party and unappealing to American voters. I think history will prove him very wrong.
1
Reading some of the replies below, I feel compelled to make one statement. As much as I'm appalled by Trump and all that he stands for, I am not going to hope that the economy tanks in the near future. Let's get some perspective, please.
6
This rural Illinois county voted 75% for Trump in 2016 and his support here remains very high. It is difficult to name a Democrat who might defeat him.
5
A major factor will be the Democratic candidate. Obama or Bill would have beaten Trump handily. Hillary was unpopular among many voters and some of those who voted Democratic before went to Trump. There are other factors, but that will be significant.
2
Chilling. Well written, although I hope it doesn't come true. The only thing I would quibble with is your last sentence. Trump is no political historian, so he wouldn't know that reference. Also, it's way too articulate to have come from him.
5
Thanks Mr. Stephens, hopefully this will be filed under the dystopian fiction genre and not a portent of things to come. Every point you made here seems completely plausible - my main worry. Let's hope the wave materializes and Mr. Mueller has the goods on big D.
3
A very thought provoking column, Mr. Stephens, and entirely plausible. However, it is premised on continued improvements in the economy, as well as the standard of living of the vast majority of voters. The former is more likely than the latter, particularly if wage raises and inflation are kept under control, a requirement in this global economy; yet it will also further increase the income gap between the wealthy and the working majority. In view of the recently announced shortfall from business taxation, the consequence of Trump's highly touted tax law, which are now projected to increase the annual budget deficit from 1 to 1.5 Trillion dollars for 2019 and beyond, the government will have to trim the discretionary portion of the federal budget by 2020. According to present GOP thinking those cuts will be at the expense of social programs that mainly affect the poor and retired citizen. However that is not sufficient, and cuts will mostly directed at programs such as the infrastructure, education (including scholarships), non-military and non-national security programs, such as federal research budgets and NIH, further curtailment of ACA-related programs, further reductions in support of the environment, National Parks, possibly veteran's benefits, etc.. All of these will lower not only our standard of living, but our quality of life. Millions will be affected, will these people stand by the president or will they finally vote for their interests?
2
on the whole, this article underestimates
the disdain of folks in flyover country
for the elites telling them how to think and
what to do.
trump will win more electoral votes and lose
by a larger popular vote margin than 2016.
and dems will have no one to blame but
themselves.
5
2016 could repeat itself if Bernie Sanders launches a third party campaign. But a regular Party lefty will not be the Democratic presidential candidate simply because the majority of liberals and certainly the moderates are more pragmatic than that, or should be after the latest debacle.
I'm guessing the Democrat's biggest problem will be generating excitement for their candidate if they anoint one of the usual suspects. What they need is a new exciting moderate man (yes, a man) who has the charisma to get out the vote.
7
It's fascinating that a decline in the unemployment rate from 4.8% to 4.1% would be perceived as a boon to a Republican president. The unemployment rate dropped 3.1% under Clinton and 3.0% under Obama, placing them first and second in this regard out of all presidents going back to 1948 (the start of official data on the unemployment rate). That didn't seem to help their Democratic successors.
Before Trump, only one of the previous six Republican presidents presided over a decline in the unemployment rate - Reagan. And, by the way, GDP growth, stock market gains, income growth and the pace of job creation have each been far superior under Democratic administrations. Why would the economy be a reason to elect any Republican?
2
!) The economy is likely to tank by 2019
2) Muller will conclude that Trump has perverted the course of justice.
3) Trump's support among Republicans, but fewer people identify as Republicans
4) James Buchanan did not win the nomination again as his party's candidate.
4
@Diogenes
I forgot to add the forthcoming testimony from Michael Cohen from Coheny Island.
Unfortunate as it reads, I think Mr. Stevens' prognosis has a very high chance of materializing. The Democratic Party needs to put a potentially winning strategy together fast....but it still might not be enough. People's pockets increasingly get in the way of their values.
11
The economy is late cycle. We will likely be in recession (probably a garden-variety mild one, but still a recession) within a year or two. This would be true no matter who was in the White House.
The unemployment rate is 4.0% (recently 3.8%). The 10yr-2yr yield curve in the Treasury market is flattening (now in 0.25-0.30 range). These economic indicators are typical of the end of an expansion - the period immediately before a recession.
The economy is much larger than, and mostly independent of, government policy. The government generally does not create economic growth, but occasionally can hurt it with exceptionally bad policies (such as, for example, a trade war).
That said, politicians love to play credit and blame games regarding the economy. It will certainly be easy to tag the inevitable and upcoming recession as the "Trump Slump." And that message will be effective.
7
Also, the Democrats currently have 35 people registered to run for Pres. Statistically almost insures Trump would win again. There would be around 5 democrats at the end of the Primaries - do you think that FOUR people would step down for the 'right candidate'?
2
@Ty "There would be around 5 democrats at the end of the Primaries - ..."
You are optimistic. I don't think Hillary sees it that way. She will be the One.
1
@Mike
Will they never learn?
It shatters me that this account is so persuasive.
It is stunning that Pelosi and Shumer don't engineer their own retirement.
It is stunning that people who love American democracy and the liberal perspective of what WE can do together are unable to find a spokesperson to articulate their vision.
24
What Stephens left out of his analysis is the real reason Trump won in 2020.
Large scale voter disenfranchisement in what were once seen as swing states--Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, and North Carolina--backed by Supreme Court opinions written by Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch.
Pennsylvania, which was able to turn away such disenfranchisement thanks to the end of gerrymandering of legislative districts, swung Democratic in large numbers.
14
This is perhaps the most depressing forecast of what is to come that one could possibly read. The stupidity and utter soullessness of Trump supporters knows no bounds. As far as I'm concerned, the real enemy is not Trump, who is obviously a shell of a human being, but the republicans in Congress who are sitting idly by and allowing our country to be destroyed. And then you have the bull dogs who are gladly contributing in an active way to make sure the demolition continues : Rand, Nunes, Miller and select others determined to keep this dictator in office.
11
My worst nightmare!
7
Unlikely. Republican policy aims at "unleashing" the financial markets -- a strategy that has failed to provide much benefit, beyond record levels of easy debt, to the nation's working/middle class consumers and the domestic economy that depends on them, since the 1980s. A fact that has contributed to the various busted bubbles, business failures and bailouts, recessions, collapses, and shrinking middle class, experienced in and at the end of the last three Republican administrations. It's true that it took Reagan and Bush 2 eight years to produce the worse of these results, and Bush 1 mainly suffered from weaknesses encouraged by his predecessor, but Trump is adding intensity and some especially ill-thought out new wrinkles to this recipe -- likely to bring worse and faster results. Especially now that Americans have spent down their inheritance from last century's post-war boom (a boom that ended in the deep recession of the early 80s). That inheritance, and easy credit hid or eased some of the worse consequences of bad policy. But a lot of that middle class wealth that remained was lost in the collapse of 2008 -- or transferred to the top .001%. Politically Trump is depending, like his GOP predecessors, on defense, energy and agriculture spending and deregulation to keep his middle America voters happy. But the heavy industry, extractive energy dependent economy that policy is based in no longer exists. Throwing money at its failures won't bring it back.
5
This would be an alarming prospect, except that there is so much wrong with it.
First, the ticket would be more likely to be Brown/Warren, not Warren/Brown; but actually I think we'll see a Democratic dark horse, such as Mitch Landrieu of Louisiana.
Second, while it's nice that the Dow is going up, that doesn't help the vast majority of Americans because they aren't in the market.
While unemployment may remain low "technically", most new jobs created will be part of the "gig" economy and will be part-time with no benefits.
The deficit isn't mentioned once and will play a large part in the 2020 election.
I have a feeling Mueller's findings won't be so toothless.
Last - the idea that the Democratic Party will "lose its marbles" by wanting to abolish the closest thing our country has to the Gestapo is just silly.
Interesting fantasy, Mr. Stephens - but a fantasy nonetheless.
9
sort of a pedestrian fantasy if you asked me.
1
The only thing wrong about this column is everything.
He will not win the next election, and it won't be all that close.
The map is going to look like Obama's 2008 victory. There is going to be crazy Democratic voter turnout along with just enough republican defections to make it into a mini rout.
I am concerned, however, that Warren may get the nomination. She is the one candidate who could potentially snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, her messaging has historically been very negative and her presentation kind of brittle.
I'd rather see that ticket flipped with Brown or go with a guy like Landrieu or Kamala Harris or even an unleashed Joe Biden. I think he could really mud wrestle with Trump very successfully.
5
I’ve been around politics for a long time; I worked on the Hill for 20 years. The only thing I learned about electoral cycles was that nothing—nothing—is predictable. How many of the punditry saw Trump not only winning but making their worst fears daily reality? Who saw Reagan as anything but a washed-up B movie actor in 1976? How many people would have predicted that both of the likable and patriotic Bushes would leave office under storm clouds? Who knew the name Barack Obama in 2004, before the Democratic convention? No, smug prognostication is a fool’s game, especially when it comes to our perpetually fickle body politic.
13
I notice you leave out the berniecrats. another active blind spot.
1
So here is another centrist hack with a personal, selfish interest in making sure that leftists don't gain power. This is the same "third way" garbage that made poor people destitute when "welfare [sic] reform" was done in 1996.
Why don't you tell it like is, Bret. If a leftist like Sanders or Warren gets the Democratic nomination, MICHAEL BLOOMBERG WILL RUN, handing the election to Trump. That's what would have happened in 2016. Oh, yeah, you don't want to touch that, do you. Perhaps you have more in common with the billionaires than you think.
3
@David - Er, Bloomberg will be nearly 80 in 2020. He won't be able to do anything of the sort.
1
@Jonathan Bernie (now 76) and Joe Biden (now 75) won't be much younger than Bloomberg in 2020.
My worst nightmare; I'm thinking to hook up with other commenters here and maybe get some huge 11-bedroom place in BC where we can pool resources and lick each other's wounds. I also have Hungarian roots and would consider Budapest, but then we'd be trading Trump for Orban, which would appear to be a wash, though Orban is at least less loud-mouthed and bellicose in his treachery.
All that said, this scenario would mean that truly, our nation simply does not care a whit about the moral fiber of our president, and that this loathsome man's daily-repeated indecency is acceptable in projecting our nation's identity. I find that prospect just too appalling to contemplate any further at the moment.
Anybody Else in 2020!
5
Thank you Bret! Those of us on the right hope and pray that it turns out just as you say; except the part about losing the House. On second thought maybe it would not be so bad.
3
Amusing article but nothing more. Sure, Trump supporters will remain rabid about their hero but 65% of Americans will run him out of office. I hope.
1
Trump Country is already suffering from his tarrifs. I can't help but smirk a little just like they did when he won
1
I'm having a really hard time taking it as a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump will be "decisively re-elected" for many reasons; starting with the fact that he does not represent the majority of Americans who disgaree with his overt racism and his ego-driven form of politics.
But if it makes Mr. Stephens feel better that this country is currently a one-party state ruled by a racist who shows more interest in being friendly with our adversaries than with our neighbors and allies, who am I to contradict him?
I just hope he's wrong.
2
Unless there's some way the Dow can keep going up while the economy goes down, this sneak peek is implausible. I have no faith in the American electorate, but there's no way this economy will keep chugging along if Trump's trade wars continue. I also don't see how Never Trumpers of any stripe can recoil at a vote for Elizabeth Warren. If they do, they will show themselves to be dyed-in-the-wool hypocrites who do not, in fact, value our democracy.
3
Predicting the 2020 election is a folly at best. Who the experts said will win the World Cup?
1
Stop blaming the Democratic Party for something that is the fault of Trump voters. The Democrats have run better qualified candidates with better platforms yet they keep losing. Instead of blaming Democrats, put the blame where it belongs: on Republican voters.
9
@Michael When you lose an election it is on you. Blaming the winners for not being smart enough to know what was good for them is a joke. It is also just plain lazy. You may have some self declared moral high ground but no actual power.
2
No they have not! The fault of losing the 2016 presidential election is squarely on the shoulders of Debbie Wasserman-Shultz and the Democratic National Party who had 8 years and the only candidate they could come up with was Hilary Clinton! I am a lifelong Democrat but I was disgusted! The voters are not looking toward the past-they want a future! I cannot vote for Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders: they are too old! The DNC must work to find the next Democratic president not just pick someone out of their band of usual suspects!
1
This is beyond depressing because it's a very likely scenario.
1
"Mr. Trump and other Republicans charged they would “bankrupt you and bankrupt the country.”"
After our Master Con Man in Chief's tax cuts, Bret has to be joking with that one.
2
Gerrymandering and Citizens United. The ole one-two.
5
This is so depressing but probably so true.
5
This article is silly for the following reasons. It is much to early to predict who is going to be the Democratic Party nominee. Trump is too unpredictable and he could just as easily alienate the country with his mob boss attitude and erratic behavior and decisions. Also, with rising deficits and trade wars, it is possible that the economy will fall into recession. Like former President Obama, a relatively unknown could emerge from the Democratic Party and win the Presidency instead of the old guard progressives and other usual suspects. But the biggest unknown is the Muller investigation and at this point, predictions are useless.
3
My favorite character in this article is the "moderate" who is clearly supposed to be reasonable but who uses a word exclusively favored by bad-faith internet trolls: virtue-signalling.
This author has, with apparently absolutely no self-awareness, told a story where caring about morality is foolish, naive, the result of extreme emotion, and probably insincere anyway.
Think about how amazing this is. Think about it. Stephens is not even attempting to deny that the Democrats actually have moral superiority to Trump and his Republicans. Instead, he works hard to suggest that "moral superiority" is somehow a bad thing, because it makes you silly and overwrought, and because it involves concern for the suffering of minorities, which voters apparently despise.
This is absolutely incredible. This dark, cynical, 4chan-inspired viewpoint has snuck its way into the perspectives of even "reasonable" conservatives, and I'm not sure they're even aware of it.
5
@karp I agree with what you are saying but I do believe that the scenario Mr. Stephen is portraying is realistic. This is how Trump got elected in his first (and hopefully only) term. There is a fair size segment of population who does not care whether Trump is an ethical and moral person but does like business deregulations, right shift in SCOTUS, support for the evangelical community and the prospect of overturning Wade vs. Roe. This is in addition to his fervent supporters, who probably amount to less than 30% of the electorate. Democratic Party needs to be aware of that and run on a platform different from being more moral than Trump.
5
I think you’re missing the point. Stevens is not commenting on the validity of Democrats’ moral fiber. He’s saying that moral issues don’t win elections, especially in the post-Trump era. Sadly, I think he’s right.
2
Brett Stevens is very imaginative, and a skillful writer -- but he's waaay behind the curve on this one.
Hating Trump is pretty old already. By 2019 it will be dead and buried. A mixture of tiredness, pity, and boredom is setting in already. Even if he escapes impeachment -- more likely by Republicans than by Democrats -- it's reasonably likely Trump will choose to declare victory and head for the golf course. Assuming his golf courses haven't been taken over by the banks, that is.
Newspapers are still stupid enough to show photographs of Trump preening at his rallies, but YouTube in July 2018 showed that his arenas are half empty.
By 2020, assuming he is even running, Trump will be campaigning electronically because the old Leni Riefenstahl arena thingie will have stopped working long before. Posing by the airplane in a hangar? People had been laughing at it for years.
Sorry, Brett. Good work, but nice try.
3
Ah, but there are two U.S. economies, not one. The first economy is the one the media reports is humming based on traditional economic indicators, such as the unemployment rate. Democrats must make the case that this economy is bogus and largely signals the optimum conditions for investors to increase their wealth. Democrats must then persuade voters to focus on the real economy that has left Americans in the middle and lower classes behind, struggling with stagnant wages and forcing them to work extra “gigs” to make ends meet. Read the articles below.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/03/21/the-unemployment-rate-is-an-inad...
https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/04/13/trumponomics-is-21st-century-rea...
3
I'm sorry to counter your rather condescending spin on the so called 2016 "election", but Trump didn't "win" anything. The Republicans cheated with the help of the Russians, and the whole administration is illegitimate, period. America is in disgrace because of this profound corruption.
4
It is depressing viewing an evil baffoon and his appointees casually toss lies to the public everyday. Reading their explanations, excuses, lies becomes suffocating. The thought of this lasting until December is painful and continuing beyond 2020 is absolutely frightening.
I begin to wonder just looking at some of the cast of characters faces and expressions Trump, Sanders, Conway, Miller, Munchkin, Sessions, Page, Gorka, Bannon, Mannafort, the Corey person, Bolton, Pompeo, Zinke, Kelly, Nunes, Pruit....are they physically a new type of species? Their ugliness just increases each day of the Administration, their distain towards anyone who disagrees or asks a question they don't want to answer is all over the faces.
They are so arrogant no attempt is made to conceal their contempt for the rest of us. The cult they have going on have no idea that same attitude is directed at them as well.
2
I am a lifelong Democrat but when I look at Hilary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi I see the same ugliness.
2
you left out the part where the 97% of the votes of African American and Hispanic people were invalidated
2
Quite plausible. But Mr. Stephens's comparison with 1992 - like that of many other pundits and talking heads - is faulty. Bill Clinton didn't beat President George H.W. Bush because of "the economy, stupid". Clinton won because of the third-party candidacy of Ross Perot. Perot got almost 20,000,000 votes nationwide - almost 20% of the vote. The lesson for 2020, which the Party-Formerly-Known-As-Republican will surely learn, is to avoid a run by, say, John Kasich, on the "Independent GOP" ticket. Watch today's feckless, cowardly hand-wringers in Congress and the governors' mansions falling into line behind Trump will be an unequalled spectacle.
4
This satire rings true. Dems live in a red country and we are the enemy to be vanquished. We are the party of open borders, proponents of abortion, identity politics, higher taxes to give what are considered "handouts" to the lazy and the illegal, the party that wants a secular America, the party that wants to take guns away from the millions of Americans who believe it is their God-given right to own them, the party of foreign policy capitulation and weakness, the party that is considered the destroyer of morality and the epitome of liberal permissiveness, the party that scares the living daylights out of most of the country with visions of transgender males in female bathrooms and gasp, what would happen to the children if we allowed this, the party of a failing economy, the party of too many regulations that hamper business, the party that prioritizes protecting endangered species more than its rural citizens and the list goes on.
We are the boogeymen out to destroy America and they fully believe Trump is making it great again. They believe anything he says and anything he does is okay with them. Anything.
We can't win that kind of war. The hatred for us is palpable. You can't win a war against those who believe caging children is appropriate because illegals are breaking our laws. You can't win a war against those who still believe Obama is not an American citizen or that Hillary was running a sex ring.
We are the party out to get Trump and they will protect him.
6
I was grooving until, "Democrats also failed to capitalize on, and may have been damaged by, winning back control of the House of Representatives, but not the Senate, in the 2018 midterms."
That's the only thing you got wrong. I invite those of a disagreeable nature, to look at the highly informative NYT info-graphic, of the 2016 election. If someone can pinpoint 25 will flip, plus 25 might flip, than the Blue wave will happen. Otherwise, there will be 20 months of Democrat fratricide.
As soon as you accept Hillary is running, because she is the nominee, because she is going to win, the sooner you can take down President Dr. Evil.
She may run (is she actually that stupid?) but she will not win. Her time had come and gone. She should stay home , enjoy her grandchildren, write books and op-ed pieces. Nancy Pelosi should join her. We need someone younger.
2
@NYCSandi She has keep her face in the public square since the election. There is a reason.
Yup, Bret Stephens doesn't need to be a carnival fortune-teller to write this one. The GOP might be a bunch of rancid knuckle-draggers but the Democrats just seem plain stupid and chaotic. They have nobody on-deck to even move the needle slightly in their favor compared to 2016. Elizabeth Warren? Oh puhleeze. I admire her "spunk" but she's not even close to being a contender.
Plus, let's be honest, the general American public just doesn't really care. In fact, some might actually have come to enjoy living in an "Idiocracy" reality show.
Yup, Trump will almost certainly win re-election.
1
Brilliant fantasy, but SAD and SCARY! We MUST get to work to elect Democrats and stand up to Trump and his constant lies. It is heart-breaking and appalling that people believe him when the facts are so different from what he says (and Tweets--ich!). What happened to the thinking American public who could tell facts from fantasies, who could distinguish a wanna-be demigod from a politician who understands and truly wants to preserve, protect and defend our Constitution? Let's wake up and start acting effectively to counter this Idiot in Charge.