History tends to repeat itself. Though the great depression and subsequent prolong recession may not mirror coming doomsday it will somewhat reflects to a certain degree. Protectionism proposed by two Republican politicians the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act caused a lot of miseries. Trump do not understand this things unfortunately!
We need to bring back the guillotine to remind the rich and powerful that there is a limit to how much in-your-face, up-yours corruption the common man can take. We've already suffered from over 30 years of "WTO free trade," forcing American workers to compete with overseas laborers, driving down wages, and forcing American consumers to compete with hungrier mouths at the grocer's checkout counter, driving up food costs. "Free trade" is a sham and the raison d'être behind gaping wealth inequality in the United States.
4
Unfortunately, we are coming to a time when we must become wary of any information provided by the Fed on down to the Labor Dept.
The reliability of data from these entities has now been compromised by "угрозы" (threat) and "верность" (allegiance) by and to Trump. Never before has a US president required such imperial countenance. Trump's threat to revoke John Brennan's and James Clapper's security clearance was more than a direct attack at his critics - it was an implied threat to any government official, including the Fed, who fails to cowtow to the imperial Comb-Over ruler.
Soon you may be getting your economic data from the Orwellian Department of Economic Growth.
This is how democracies die and governments like Putin's Russia control its people. Orwell predicted it. Only we can stop it. Oppose Trump and his sycophant Republicans on November 6, 2018.
11
It is true that US exports per capita are low compared to many other countries. However this is slowly changing as the interdependence of the world economy increases. The days are long past since Hollywood regarded US revenues as their most influential source of income.
Trump is therefore looking backwards with "America First". This is both a dog whistle to the unsophisticated and reflective of his obsessive need to feel he is dominating any encounter by using power and gut instinct instead of negotiation and debate.
Obviously all countries game cross border trading to some degree but negotiation is the more productive way to move forward. Trump and his supporters might usefully consider the Chinese adage "you can go faster alone, but further together"
8
While the $12 billion pre-midterm bailout to farmers who have been getting slaughtered by President Trump's ill-conceived trade war with the world may offer them some short-term good news, it's bad news for everyone in the long run. It means that Trump, rather than retreating from his trade war, plans to double down on a position in which he has squandered US leverage against more adversarial trade partners like China by simultaneously alienating U.S. allies.
Some farm advocates appear to be clear on the long-term implications of Trump's short-sightedness. Brian Kuehl, executive director of trade group Farmers for Free Trade, called the White House bailout initiative "a short-term attempt at masking the long-term damage." As Keuhl stated, “The best relief for the president’s trade war would be ending the trade war.”
Words to the wise. For years to come, our children and grandchildren will be paying for Trump's insane trade war folly.
17
When the US let China into the WTO and enabled that country to create an export-led development process that included, currency manipulation, tariff and non-tariff trade barriers and techno-theft, where were the articles about the implications of "free trade" for the domestic economy?
Any major change in economic policy, including fiscal and monetary policies and regulations, creates winners and losers. The sum of these re-allocations in income and wealth fare exceed any overall changes in the size of the economic pie. Mr. Irwin knows this - or should know it - Professor Rodrik has written about it for years.
1
Inflation is here--big time! Just go to your favorite Supermarket for proof.
12
@FJG
I'm seeing it also. Consumers long ago made compromises such as buying generic or house-brand products, or buying clothes and household goods on sale, or buying more things used at thrift stores or Craigs List. After the recovery from the recession we don't revert to brand names or median priced items right away or ever. We have little wiggle room if inflation starts to ramp up.
7
So much of what Trump is doing to so many aspects of our society (health, science, economics, government, religion, freedom of the press, etc.) are devoid of logic and precedence. What then is the probability that reasoned analyses like Mr. Irwin's can be used to predict future outcomes? I think very little except for the chaos it will produce.
9
This article displays a fundamental misunderstanding of futures pricing. For example, he states that "the current [spot] price for Midwest Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil Steel is $916 per short ton — but futures prices imply that will fall to $759 by December of 2019." The current December futures price for this product is not an indication of what the spot price will be in December; as a rule the futures price for a product is explicitly not the expected future spot price. There are many factors that would lead a futures price to be above or below the expected future spot price, including cost of carry and physical stocks. Certainly there are economic lessons to be learned from futures pricing, but it's not nearly as straightforward as it's laid out here.
8
Moreover, the fact that the December price of hot rolled coil steel is lower than the current spot price (i.e. backwardation) could imply a shortage (in that people will pay a premium to have that steel now rather than later), belying a market condition opposite to what Irwin is describing.
3
The soybean example in this article isn’t actually a great indicator. The rebound in soybean prices based on futures markets could be predicated on the assumption of production shifts. This is historically what has happened. Farmers may reduce production of soybean in favour of another agricultural product, say corn, which may then have an impact on that price (dropping it). Which would also explain the $12 billion commitment.
Generally though futures markets are a casino more than they are a rational indicator for the economy. So futures traders - say big hedge funds - could be gaming the casino to restore confidence before they pull right out and make a huge profit.
I’m not saying this negates what is suggested. But when the major economic players stand to lose a lot, they have a history of gaming the system to their advantage in the short term at the expense of everyone else in the long term.
8
decent article on the technicalities of what to look for when trying to anticipate impacts of such policy changes. The main problem for this kind of exercise right now is that it's still too early into the new policies to gauge their impact properly even with these tools. The more important issue to look at is whether the whole policy makes any fundamental economic sense, and whether in principle it is really capable of making America richer. The answer to both is "no", and there is a vast literature to support this view.
Quite apart from all that, the politics of launching trade wars against allies and trashing agreements with them are dismal. It is not a way to keep friends, maintain confidence and influence people. Even the mighty USA needs those friends, as the events around 9/11 and the international efforts to rescue the world economy pursuant to the 2008 financial collapse amply demonstrated, not to speak of the daily ebb and flow of information exchange and other military, security and intelligence assistance that allies continuously provide - but to be seen for how long if this kind of treachery keeps up.
7
Thank you for this most important article. I only add, in 2016 oil was hovering near $40/brl and today it’s over $70. If wages continue to stagnate and personal debt rises, consumer confidence will suffer.
I think the combination of our radically revised tax structure and the frictional costs now imposed on the global economy has put the US economy on a glide path to recession.
18
@James Ruden Rise in oil prices is a positive development - a reduction in global warming fossil fuel use. Hopefully, it will force more reliance on renewables - solar, wind, &, hopefully, nuclear.
1
Unfortunately whatever permanent misery lands on the good ol' US of A is going to produce no sympathy from the rest of the planet because this misery storm you inflicted on the rest of the world is of your creation. Yes. Many of you did not vote for the trouble maker but to outside eyes no one is doing anything to stop it. Also how can anyone deny climate change. Japan...record temperatures....at least 100 dead and many more unaccounted for in Greece from wild fires. Wild fires in California and a record fire season now in BC and Ontario. I regard the evil from your current administration and I cry. I just plead to common sense that you people do not invade Iran.
27
Pray for a blue wave in November.
6
@bcer The Troublemaker's Russian friend "doesn't believe in" climate change, so The Troublemaker doesn't believe in it either. Of course, a temperature rise would make Siberia the breadbasket of the world, and the Great Plains a Dust Bowl again, but the self-proclaimed King of Debt will have his own personal loans guaranteed and his hollowed-out properties still nominally in his possession.
Blaming those who voted against him for not doing enough is not helpful. We are doing what we can, within the law. Would you have us go outside the law, when, slow though it is, it is our only protection?
4
@C A Simpson Praying is good-Voting is better!
1
The comments I am hearing socially about what needs to happen to trump on the left coast of Canada have turned very, very dark. It is like the black cloud of a major storm. One person says something and someone else reports that someone else said it also. Now we are obviously a foreign country...according to the trumpster fire.. a grave threat to the good ol' US of A. However there is a huge cross border flow...buying cheap gas, beer and wine and hormone infected cheese. I am wondering when and if that dark cloud is gathering south of the 49th. If so it could prove caticlysmic.
10
Unfortunately, any signs of slowing of the economy would be reactive rather than proactive. The ship may have steered too far off course by the time we get our first indications. I am hopeful that this can be corrected in 2 years with a new president.
10
“The direct effects on the U.S. economy are small, because the economy is really big and it is mostly domestically driven,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief United States economist at Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services. “Still, tariffs hurt, and we’re starting to see some precursors of an impact already.” Not true.
After 1945, the US produced almost half of the global output and exported a considerable part of it. After the 1970s, exports of services and money capital increasingly grew. The surplus needs a market and nowadays that market is the world.
The question is why the world market is finding its limits, which is also reflected in little investment in production relative to the global profits ? The raising tariffs seem to me an illusory byproduct of that situation. Trade won’t improve with additional tariffs and the market won’t expand, which is always the outlet for surpluses.
5
I'm a simple person so pardon me if I ask a simple question. If soy bean farmers can't sell to China and other countries on the "Do Not Sell" list, can't they sell their soy beans here in the States at a lower cost so that we can turn them into whatever we use soy beans for? Ditto corn, milk, wheat and whatever else we have a surplus of. Seems to me that that would lower the prices here, which would benefit the consumers and be more patriotic and better than accepting Corporate Welfare from the Feds. And if we have too many fields of one particular crop, to the point where we have a huge surplus that would go to the other countries were it not for the list, then why not use the land to grow other crops instead or as well, like the food we import from other countries? We have mountains and plains and deserts and forests and marsh-lands and swamps already in this country, and each habitat is perfect for specific forms of vegetation without our having to alter the environment, and everybody could be fed cheaply and healthily. We just need to work with Nature, not against it, and return to our sensible sustainable agrarian, and not capitalistic Greed Before People, roots.
11
@Jackie 'farm subsidies' have been standard operating procedure in the US farm belt since c1949! That conditioning won't be easy to reverse. Question; regarding soybeans; are they a part of your daily diet?, or your friends & neighbors? I grew up in NW Ohio surrounded by fields of soybeans & corn. Soybeans weren't a part of our daily diet, if ever. They are primarily grown for export to our Asian neighbors & for manufactured products and our newly minted 'health food' market.
6
@Jackie Great ideas, Jackie! There may be a few problems if we eat/use only what our farmers produce-and if prices are lowered. I, like others, enjoy bananas, coffee, sugar, French wine, spices from Indonesia, fish etc..
This is a small planet-look at a world globe and appreciate the work of all the people producing food and other goods for all the people of the world. Its a good system and should not be tampered with for the sake of one administration's unthinking greed.
2
Trump reminds me of an abusive, controlling husband who isolates his wife from family and friends so he is free to destroy her with no one to stand in his way.
21
Let me remind everyone: trump is buying these votes with TAXPAYER MONEY, but trump has been running for RE-ELECTION since the very day he took office. I will remind you that he took out re-election papers ON THE DAY HE TOOK OFFICE!
Those votes are being paid for by the American taxpayer.
Those "trips" are being paid for by the American taxpayer.
When he shouts "LOCK HER UP!" at his re-election rallies, and then laughs and laughs - it is the American taxpayer who is paying for it!
And it's not the rich paying for this "BAILOUT" - it is the poor!
TRUMP: Open your own wallet! Pay your own bill!
You've made hundreds of millions extra since you got in office.
You want the 'farmers' happy so they vote for you again?
Then pay them out of your own pocket!
20
How will Trump fix this? My bet is that he'll at least want to fire the people who keep those unneeded statistics regarding unemployment.
12
If the trade war hurts the economy, Trump surely will blame the Democrats.
7
@Michael N. Alexander
Obama, specifically.
3
Here's How You'll Be Able To Tell:
$12 Billion In "Emergency" Aid.
14
thank you. clear and concise.
2
Other indicators: Your job, the jobs of anyone in your family or anyone you know... how much stuff costs, and all the basic stuff you can't get because you can't afford it.
7
This piece is outdated and sterile. Incompetent Donald employs a 1920's Depression era bailout to the farmers for his disastrous and unnecessary tariffs policy. No need for a Nobel prized economist to dissect it.
7
@Uly Good thing, too. As this column and prior pieces I've read by this expert make evident, Neil Irwin has won no Nobel prizes. Fortunately The Times does offer Paul Krugman twice every week, and his view of the effect of Trump's tariffs is decidedly less sanguine.
7
Plunge the economy into a recession/depression and isolate us from the rest of the world: the perfect scenario for a fascist takeover.
Putin cannot believe his luck.
10
Billions more will be committed to other industries who adversely feel the effects of the GOP Administration’s tariffs. Many of them, I’m sure, are already benefitting from its tax cuts. The regular taxpayer is the biggest loser, along with the environment, National parks, education, healthcare, etc. — you know, the stuff is ordinary citizens value. Ask us where we’d like these billions, and the billions to come, to be dedicated.
9
One indicator that the trade war might be taking a toll might be when the government has to start issuing billions in bailouts to specific affected industries...
Like the 12 billion going to agriculture today...
12
So what is Trump's motive for this war? Am I correct in concluding from this article that the clear beneficiary will be the larger (Global) corporations? And that pain for the small business is necessary and inevitable? (and that all the blame should be laid at Obama's feet)
Just getting a feeling that his motive might be about lining the pockets of his wealthy, 'elite' peers long-term and/or retaliating against other countries with whom he feels personally slighted because they re "laughing at him".
7
@iain mackenzie. Bingo! Thankfully, more and more people get it
5
The S&P 500 and the Dow still haven't recovered to their 23 January highs. That makes it an official 6 months since the peak. There is however recovery for the top 100 stocks in the NASDAQ - which is pretty tech heavy.
So, the market is down except for a few mega-companies in spite of a good earnings season, a massive tax break, and low unemployment - why would that be?
Well, maybe the tax break isn't actually meaningful to most Americans because they don't get enough of it to make a difference?
Maybe great earnings don't help most folks because, even if they do own stock, its in their retirement plan and not an immediate source of income like rich folks?
Maybe low unemployment is meaningless if the majority of employed folks can barely pay the rent because wage growth hasn't happened but inflation has?
As for that NASDAQ 100 still climbing? How much of that is stock buybacks with overseas money that has recently been repatriated consequence free under Trump? How much is simple automatic reinvestment of profits (passively invested in index based products that model the NASDAQ 100)?
Now, to be clear, the market is not the economy, but it is a leading indicator - which means it actually leads. When the market drops the economy will follow in the months after.
The only question is - will it drop before the midterms?
The Repubs understand this and are so scared they are now proposing tax break 2.0 - not to help long term, but to delay with a sugar high.
13
@Jason
Great comprehensive analysis! You should be writing a NYT financial analysis column!! Thanks!
4
@Jason
By tax season next year when ordinary folks cannot deduct as much in charitable gifts and state and local taxes as they used to, there will be more glumness.
3
Seems the smart money is forecasting that the trade war will end fairly soon and we'll be back to normal - higher soybean prices and lower metals - BUT higher prices don't matter if you've lost the customers.
AND THIS IS MOST IMPORTANT:
Smart money said the so-called president wouldn't get elected.
6
Eleven billion this year. And next year? Another eleven billion. And the year after that? 'A billion here, a billion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money'. Breakeven, all-costs included, to produce a bushel of soybeans around here is about $10.50. The price for November delivery closed on the CBOT at $8.73 today. It may be cheaper for the government to pay farmers NOT to grow beans. Farmers who forgo planting would still need reimbursement for fixed and unavoidable costs but not for direct costs like seed, fertilizer, chemicals or fuel. Reduced supply reaching markets would raise market prices and thus reduce losses on beans that are offered for sale. Or government could just buy beans until prices reach a profitable level. Government-owned stockpiles thus generated could be donated to nations like Venezuela that need food, or just stored. At one time or the other the government has used all three of these methods in agricultural product markets. (Remember the "Food For Peace Program"?) The risk for any of these is that world markets will find other sources, and reduced production here will be permanent.
11
The executive simply has too much unchecked power over tariffs. These are matters better dealt with by Congress (well, if Congress actually dealt with things.....). The power to the executive vests under the guise of national security, which seems silly to me when talking about cars and soybeans.
In a real world, the government would have no say about how products are priced, or how prices are influenced. Price is better determined by good ol’ supply and demand.
Of course the executive and Congress have no direct say on tariffs imposed by other nations. Yet even here, steps can be taken to discourage such practices.
Tariffs have been with us forever. The pity this year, and at least into 2019, is that our economy is chugging along quite well. Tariffs slow that down, and that’s not good for any American.
9
If American manufacturers increase their costs and they in turn increase costs to their consumers, it may have little or no effect on trade but it will have a major effect on inflation. Americans paying more for less has a dramatic impact on personal bottom lines and will hurt small businesses more than larger firms.
9
Is there any measure of how this all affects the average worker? Are they working more hours? Are they getting better benefits? Are their companies having to cut hours because of supply deficits or fear of supply deficits? Isn't this scheme supposed to be about all Americans, not just about upper management and shareholder profits? Are workers wages increasing? I am certainly observing a downturn in living wages where we are now in the midwest. It looks a lot like chaos.
All this talk about stock market is interesting but does not trickle down to real people's everyday lives. The bottom line is where do the profits, if there are any profits, actually go? I think we know the answer to that.
16
@Carol Z The real 'bottom line' is absolutely that the stock market is affected by profits. That is the 'stock market'! The owners make decisions affecting the average worker based on the ups/downs of the markets. Look at agricultural markets also.
Make it simple. Simply track the sum of imports & exports. If the total materially declines, the deficits have reduced trade. If they stay steady or increase overall, the were inconsequential.
2
One thing I wouldn't consider a bellwether -- the stock market. The business tax cuts will enable the corporate world to keep buying back their stock -- thus inflating its value and rewarding its executives with an even bigger cut of the pie.
15
@mjan If manufacturing and trade are affected negatively the pie gets smaller and less valuable.
Economists and market analysts love to make predictions, spewing out mountains of words and convoluted reasoning, yet the fact remains, their track record is no better than random chance would produce. The experts aren’t. And putting your cash for investment into a diverse portfolio and just leving it there for 10 years, 20 years will prodice s good or better results as playing the market daily or weekly. Studies have shown these things.
One thing this article misses is full context. Look at soybeans. The U.S. has been supplying a huge portion of china’s soybeans, now it’s much less thanks to Trump’s tariff war. So who is supplying China now? At much better prices with no tariff war? One answer is almost certainly Canada. Drive around beauriful Prince Edward Island today, reknowned for its potatoes, and be surprised by how many farmers have switched to soybeans, no subsidies needed. And that was before Trump’s tariff war, which will hurt Canada as he destroys NAFTA without cause. Now this article suggests experts think soybean price will rise again. What makes them think the chineses will ever buy soybean from the USA when lots of others will supply them without the drama and hate?
21
@N. Cunningham writes: "So who is supplying China now? At much better prices with no tariff war? One answer is almost certainly Canada."
You may not believe in the record of economists, but your assertion that Canada is making up for the shortfall of US soybeans is cracked. The US is the world's largest producer of soybeans: according to the most recent figures (2015), it produced 108.0 million metric tons that year. Approximately a third of the US crop has been exported annually to China.
Compare with Canada, the world's seventh largest soybean producer at 6.0 million metric tons (or a little less than 6% of the US output). To meet the demand in China, it would have to essentially quintuple its 2015 output, all of which would then be exported. Not likely.
So here are the facts: Chinese shortfalls are being made up primarily with substitute domestic feedstocks and with some Brazilian and Argentinian exports. These are facts that have been compiled by economists.
4
@Lew, you are missing the point entirely, but you are doing it at the same time. Will the replacement of China imports come from Canada or any other country or countries is obvious, but do you think that the Chinese imports of soya will come From USA farmers, after the dumb trade war ?
This column ignores the whale on the beach. The biggest stinking fact is that Trump, Ryan and McConnell are running trillion dollar deficits in a tight economy. The GOP presents: Wrong-Time Keynesianism.
We've seen this before. Reagan's massive deficit-financed boost, the battleship New Jersey, anti-rocket-rockets, and every V-weapon he could imagine, was a similar wrong-time Keynesianism. He hollowed out the economy. He cleared the way for Bush Senior's new invention, the double-dipper.
We don't know what new economic invention we'll get this time. Once again we see Republican inventiveness of the battleship New Jersey variety. Every old codger in the club is hauling out his childhood dreams and spending borrowed money to finance them.
Private police forces, paid for with Chinese debt. Private prisons, paid for with Chinese debt. A whole business-operated off-the-books state, a John Galt gulch of privately owned, publicly paid-for, Republican geezers' litttle gimmes.
It's expensive. It pumps up the economy. It stretches every band around the barrel, but it makes the tun look full.
It's artificial. It's expensive. It distorts economic indicators. It makes rightwing weirdies happy. It's nuts.
26
@David Lloyd-Jones
I see now, hours later, that the Veterans' Administration is Trump's latest addition to his John Galt Gulch of money-losing but for-profit enterprises. He's now going to give its hospitals away, but pay them enough out of the Federal kitty to make sure his buddies who "buy" them can stay ahead of the game.
Republican socialism strikes again.
8
@David Lloyd-Jones The Vets are now getting snookered again, as of 1 January 2019 thwir dental care is GONE, just one more way that Cadet Bone Spurs chooses to kick Vwts in the literal teeth. How much more of this abuse of power will our feckless.Congress allow?
1
So the insidious nature of Trump's Trade War resembles the Plucked Chicken that Madeline Albright talks about: If you only pluck out one or two feathers a day, you hardly notice anything until it's too late.
17
oh, i don't know, maybe a 12 billion dollar bale out to buy back votes you're afraid of losing
20
The rosy analysis of this writer (the labour market is in an amazing shape) never cease to amaze me.
15
Well it just cost the treasury $12 billion for farmers!
11
So we tax imports of steel and give the money to farmers.
Why not tax the rich and give the money to the poor. Oh - sorry that is redistribution.
33
If those farm states are democratic states, they wouldn’t get a penny in aid.
24
This is perfect for trump. He can look like a savior with Federal welfare for Farmers and cut health care, food stamps and assistance for urban areas. The Midwest yahoos will love him for helping them and for punishing the brown people. Win/Win.
21
Except that the majority of people on Medicaid and food stamps are white.
5
@Zejee It's the 'optics', dontcha know.
"If the Trade War Starts to Damage the Economy, Here’s How You’ll Be Able to Tell"
That is similar to noting that if you are shot by a bullet, you may bleed! Here is how to tell.
13
Remember the Republican party of fiscal responsibility during the Obama years. The Tea Party and the crisis of the debt? Where are all these hypocritical Golden-Age tea party members now? I'll tell you where. Out busy collecting as many government social benefits that they can get. Irresponsible Republican fruits and nuts, from the top to the bottom!
14
Trumps Trade War is already destroying the economy. How can you tell? Just check out how Trump just gave 12 Billion in handouts to big-Agro Farmers in Red states so that they won't vote against him and the Republicans in November. This will at most temporarily blunt, at a great cost and in very limited areas of the economy, all of the damage which Trump's tariffs have already caused. Further, he's only propping up a few very selective Republican districts. Nebraska Republican Senator Sasse stated: "This administration’s tariffs and bailouts aren’t going to make America great again, they’re just going to make it 1929 again," and "This trade war is cutting the legs out from under farmers and White House’s 'plan' is to spend $12 billion on gold crutches." So Trump is making everyone pay for his idiotic tariffs and is then giving Republican voters a big welfare package to make it look like everything isn't as terrible as it is. It is funded by everyone who didn't vote for Trump. The damage to the economy is here, and it is only going to get much, much worse. Senator Sasse is right, if Trump keeps this up he’s going to make America 1929 again.
12
When Trump perceives that the trade war is hurting the economy, he will start a shooting war as a distraction. Maybe just before the midterms. Iran is the obvious prime candidate. Since Iran has no nukes yet, it's probably a better choice than Russia, China or North Korea. Venezuela could also be a possibility. My choice would be to put Trump on a small warship and let him bomb all the sheep on the Falklands.
11
@woofer Why take it out on the poor Falklands sheep? Or the 3,000 Falkland islanders who need their sheep? What have they done to hurt you?
4
Neil Irwin misses the clearest ans quickest way to tell if the tariffs are hurting Americans:
$12 BILLION in WELFARE for farmers, funded by BORROWING through the Commodity Credit Corporation.
https://www.fsa.usda.gov/about-fsa/structure-and-organization/commodity-...
Quote:
The Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) is a Government-owned and operated entity that was created to stabilize, support, and protect farm income and prices. CCC also helps maintain balanced and adequate supplies of agricultural commodities and aids in their orderly distribution.
CCC was incorporated October 17, 1933, under a Delaware charter with a capitalization of $3 million. It was initially managed and operated in close affiliation with the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, which funded its operations.
...
CCC is managed by a Board of Directors, subject to the general supervision and direction of the Secretary of Agriculture, who is an ex-officio director and chairperson of the Board. The Board consists of seven members, in addition to the Secretary, who are appointed by the President of the United States. All members of the Board and Corporation officers are USDA officials.
End quote
10
@Joe From Boston
Valid subsidies to lift the farmers out of a depression. Oops, looks like the CCC put the cart before the horse!
5
How to Tell if the Trade War Starts to Hurt the Economy?
Well.., when in Uber-Facebook, Amazon-Alphabet-Exxon' mega religious crony-capitalism Monsanto's farmers and crony-Corporations are to receive Billions in mega Corporate Putin's oligarchic "Socialism"-like tax-payers funded "Aid" just to ease their Pain from the same corporate cartels' hyper-fascistic Trump-Nazis' Tariff-Fallout, while Americans and Europeans are falling down the corrupt economic burning Climate changing ladder, but ironically vehemently religiously denied by dumb-as-fuck cognitively sick religious Nazis, then the economic down-fall into Global depressions and all-out-wars is as predictable as that infamous Amen after all idiotic " Thoughts &Prayers for oligopoly Corporate non-tax-payers.
You ARE all, Republicans particular and Dems too, so endless entertaining! But, I am not so sure that most of you fully understand systems of modern Democratic Societies of Reason, of Socially and Planetary responsible Economy, and in particular the sociopaths mindset of yours and the International asinine dynasties of megalomaniac delusional religious psychopaths in big business as you all claim so self-righteous to be such genius in everything about.
Ignoring what really goes on in the momentary Right-Now is the whole Human Specie's and to the whole Earth's demise.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/23/tech-industry-wealth-...
Best,
A.E.
Projectheureka LLC
5
my guess is this was written before the Trump bailouts for farmers.
4
Perhaps some knock-on impacts - like other nations increasing acreage producing soybeans and other grains to offset what isn't being bought from the US. When the trade war is over it will take even longer for prices to return to Q1 2018 levels / even longer for US farmers to win back market share - how long does $12B last?
3
@mejw1957 My guess is until November.
3
When our lap tops cost 4,000 , grocery stores stop giving discount on our receipts is how I will be able to tell the GOP failed tariffs is hurting. The GOP in 1932 Smoot and Hawley voted for a trade war. It angered many of our allies and Americans. They were kicked out of office the next year. Unfortunately this generation Trump and friends did not do well in history in school and would have known this trade war is a failed course to take.
10
Of course it will hurt the economy. However tariffs, were exactly what was needed 20 years ago to prevent the handing of China global geopolitical power. One sided tariffs were what handed China its global power. And tariffs now, imposed unthinkingly by this inept government, will do harm.
That said, from a geo-political point of view, trade war will improve the US relative position while causing an overall slowing of the global economy. It will hurt other countries more than it hurts us because we are still the risk-off place to put your money.
1
@scientella
Keep saying it....
1
A chaotic, haphazard, ever-escalating trade war with absolutely no strategy and no end game can only harm the economy and a lot of average Americans. MAGA.
9
Trump the great businessman?
He is the man who drove either four or six casinos into bankruptcy.
He is also the man who Forbes just downgraded the estimates of his "fortune" to a mere $3.1 billion....(NOT sarcasm, he usually manages to imply he is a multi-multi billionaire).
8
The fairness issue will arise immediately. Why just the farmers?What about Westinghouse, Harley Davidson and so many more manufacturing companies and employees?
It's hard to imagine any possible scenario where this doesn't hit the economy and growth, maybe even a recession in 2019/20, just in time to hang Trump with it.
14
@Ira Cohen Recession will come. trump will be defeated if he is still around and walk away with billions more than he and his family had in 2016. The American dream!!!
7
I'm not a journalist or an economist but I'd suggest that being forced to pay out $12bn in a desperate attempt to stop people noticing the harm your tariffs are causing is a pretty good indicator of how badly your trade war is going.
29
I remember getting a creeping sense of doom about '07ish when the fuel prices spiked so precipitously. A young man at the bank, nicely dressed in a white shirt and tie with an impeccable haircut, assured me that, no, everything was fine. went conservative on my investments anyway.
The pros suffer from the same bias toward optimism that other humans do, as well as the same intellectual laziness, "shortcuts" the brain uses to conserve energy. They also get blinded by greed, and the better, more rational ones know that if they do fail, they've got tools to transfer the losses to the rest of us.
The bit question is, will the rest of the world, whose unfair trading advantages we're sanctioning in bulk, cave in to our demands, or will they, in bulk, decide that America has become too erratic and take steps to cut us out of the loop. I can't see the second resulting in a brighter future for most Americans.
6
12 Billion Tax Dollars, paid by you and me, going to the farmers that can't survive under trump tariffs.
Who saw that coming?
16
So let me get this straight: we can’t afford to pay doctors to see Medicare patients, we can’t provide any medical care to children in poverty, we can’t cut the interest rate in student debt, we can’t afford to educate our kids, or repair our failing infrastructure, but we can give billions to corporate farmers to ameliorate the entirely unnecessary losses this Administration caused by starting a mindless and pointless trade war?
42
The government putting in $12 billion to the farmers tells you his voters are hurting.
11
Look to the bond market.
4
The only economy that Trump cares about is the one that he is hiding from the American people in his personal and family income tax returns and business records.
8
November 6 2018 will be a moment to cast your vote and begin the process of removing the current Oval Office Occupant who knows absolutely nothing about economics and has left an appalling wake of financial bankruptcies in his long line of failed businesses.
He is the last person on earth to discuss economics or just about anything else for that matter.
Vote November 6 2018!
26
It's not too hard to predict the impact of Trumps crazy moves - chaos and failure. I've move most of my money to CD's, because this guy is so unpredictable. I don't believe that he has the best interests of America in his mind, and is bent on slowly destroying our institutions. Some assets are going directly into gold, also..
6
How about billions in bailouts to farmers as an indicator? That didn't take long.
6
12 billion dollar bail out. is that the going price for a vote in November? tell us again, when will the winning start. China will keep matching us dollar for dollar on tariffs, who will trump bail out next. It would be so ironic if the tariffs were to affect his resorts, and he bailed himself out with tax payer money, wait he is already doing that each weekend when he goes to play golf at one of them. the GOP congress has become the picture of those 3 monkeys with there hands covering there eyes, mouth and ears, I see nothing, I hear nothing, I say nothing.
8
This Administration and Republican Senate and House gave the biggest ever tax-cuts to Corporations and the 1%, justified they say to promote and increase investments resulting in jobs. With unemployment at such low level as 4%, was that tax-cut really necessary? And because of tariffs, companies will be downsizing, cutting jobs, permanent and part-time, with absolutely zero perks. Who will invest and expand when the bottom line goes lower and lower, the margins not worth a dime. Meanwhile, much needed money for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment benefits, Infrastructure and other social programs will all but disappear. And of course, the most hurt will be those low on totem pole. No job or prospective jobs benefits, ill-afford to buy anything and their homes going into foreclosures. That is what the little guy will be facing. Trump wants to give farmers billions of dollars - why? To grow or not to grow soy beans? If they do grow them where can they dump them? It won't be in China for sure! As usual, Trump has been pig-headed. By increasing tariffs he has hurt the 99% of the people the most. Or maybe, that was the intention all along. Tax-cuts, tariffs Trump has started a raging fire. And we will burn in it alone because Trump has isolated us from any engagement with the rest of the world. S&P etc. etc. watch may be useless. The downtrend will certainly follow and the lag period will only delay the reckoning and by then it will be too late.
6
So where is the $12bn coming from? from what I can tell much of it is from an emergency fund set up to help farmers with loses due to emergencies such disease in crops or cattle, natural disasters or drought.
If all that money is instead spent on artificially raising the price of corn - what happens when there is an actual emergency?
16
@Lucy
don't confuse people with facts and logic, its downright unAmerican. (sarcasm)
2
Yet another handout to Big Ag. Oh yeah, let’s all give another big boost to our broken food system that continues to put our health and environment at risk, more dependent than ever on those grossly inefficient factory farms with their chemical and energy intensive fertilizers and pesticides. Plus, in time, the subsidies won’t be able to stem the tsunami of foreign reciprocal tariffs.
We Americans continue to consume obscene amounts of animal products, for which the soy and corn products are specifically targeted. How about instead we all strive to eat more locally sourced and plant-based foods? Good for the environment, good for the family farmers, and good for your health.
17
In destabilizing the world trading markets, Trump has begun a process whereby no average citizen of any country "wins". All average citizens will do is lose their jobs, and pay rising costs for consumer goods, The "winners" will be those wealthy men, women, and corporations who control world trading. They will make huge gains on either one side of the market or the other.
15
One result of this tariff binge is that products that are too expensive for another country to buy is that this other country will source that product from a third country and they may not return to buy from the US.
For example, China is looking to source soybeans from other countries including Russia. This will encourage Russia to increase their soybean production thereby benefiting Russia's GNP and pushing them to diversifying their economy.
There would be no reason that China would ever come back to buying US soybeans causing the US market to remain distressed. This could affect many products permanently.
We need our tax dollars for infrastructure, research especially medical & healthcare, education and more; not for cleaning up messes that Trump & his minions are making.
40
I don't know if this is too much complexity, but this article overlooks entirely that a trade war is about readjusting the rate of imports to exports. Yes, exporters are going to be hurt by a trade war, because they're going to be targeted by the countries whose imports we're targeting.
Conversely, there's an opening for domestic production for the home market to pick up. But it's not automatic. Tariffs on imports do not mean Apple is going to start producing its computers in the US, any more than America First means Trump is going to stop hiring foreign workers to work at his luxury country clubs.
Here in France, Coke, Snickers, all kinds of American products are produced in France. And that's because they negotiate hard for those production facilities. You want access to French markets, employ French workers. Not such a hard lesson to understand.
15
To evaluate a trade war, one must evaluate BOTH winners and losers.
1. There has been NO free trade in agricultural goods since the 1920. The US is no exception . The US has fought trade wars on agricultural goods ever since.
Most famously, the 1964 Chicken War with Europe (under the Democratic Johnson Administration) that introduced the 25% tariff on imported trucks, that continued until today
2. Trade wars have winners and losers. The greatest winner of the Chicken War was the US auto industry,
The ONLY reason that automotive manufacturing is still is profitable in the US is because domestic US pick up truck production is protected from global competition by a 25% tariff. As the NY Times published on 4/25/18 Ford will end passenger car production in the US, because it can not compete with imported cars made at Chinese and Mexican wages.
That, plus the top 3 vehicles sold in the US saved the US automotive industry.
The 3 best selling vehicles in the US in 2017 were the Ford 150 (896,764 sold), the Chevrolet Silverado (585,864 sold) the Ram Pickup (500,723 sold)
3. Without that import tax, THAT CAME OUT OF A TRADE WAR, the US domestic automotive industry would have disappeared. Not overseas. GM sold more cars in China last year, than in the US. Remove the tariff on pickups and you will see pick up production move there, joining the Buick Envision, and Cadillac CT 6 hybrid, that GM makes in already exclusively in China and imports into the US.
13
@Woof One reason that US autos lost ground is that they were poorly made by overpaid workers. FORD = Found on road dead; Chrysler could not get its electrical system correct -- ever; GM could not paint a barn among other things. AMC simply did not appeal even thought they had a good product,. Once the inroads were made they were harder and harder to overcome -- and the US never did,. RE:Trucks --- it is the macho image that fuels the truck binge and as you point out that and the monstrous SUVs is the only thing keeping US in the game. At least the quality has improved a little
2
@Richard Frauenglass German factory workers are paid more than American counterparts, they have no problems selling exports. Just like the Spartanburg South Carolina workers building BMWs for export abroad. GM sold their Vauxhall and Opel brands to PDA (France) two years ago, suddenly they are profitable. Ford sold Jaguar, Land Rover and Volvo, all three are selling record numbers of cars both abroad and in the US.
1
@Woof
I had no idea that pick-ups were protected by a 25% tariff, but it would explain why foreign pick-ups are not available anymore. I remember seeing small Toyota pick-ups in the 1970s--easy to park and drive--just the right size to be useful and not overly huge like domestic pick-ups. The best pick-up in usefulness was my dad's VW pick-up truck--8-foot bed, sides that were hinged so that they could be folded down, making loading much easier, and a huge storage compartment with openings on both sides between the axles, under the bed. The whole thing was no longer than a VW bus, which it was based on, and had a good turning radius.
Yes it had a clutch, but the overall design was so much more useful compared to my husband's Chevy truck with a 5-foot bed and a double cab that we never use the back seat of.
Light trucks are a need, but all that are available are basically vehicles that drive like tanks and are hard to park. If light trucks from Germany or Japan were sold here and had decent fuel economy, I'd buy one.
3
The EU and the U.S. would be well advised to lower tariffs on autos and auto parts to zero. Don't know whether it'll happen or not but should. No reason for these two economies with comparable standards of living and similar compensation levels to have any tariff walls on autos.
10
@Lawrence, Comparable living standards? The US and Europe?! Ha! Travel, my friend. Live abroad for a year, for 10. Learn a language, learn 5. You're living in a bubble.
5
Crucial indicator: President Flim-flam assures us that everything is great.
35
The real precursor of trouble is already occurring, look at the yields of treasury bonds. The moment short term rates exceed long term rates, economic trouble. The are very close now, the tariffs will certainly be enough to create the above scenario.
28
It looks like the impact of tariffs on the US economy will not be projected by economist, just like they did not forecast the Great Recession. It would seem to me, just a mere citizen with no economic education or professional experience, that the imposition of a tax on products has to have some impact on the economy.
Soybeans, pork, beef, wheat, housing are already experiencing problems as a result of the tariffs. Harley-Davidson has already announced its moving production out of the US. There is no automobile that will not be impacted by the aluminum and steel prices as well as the automobile import tariff because so many car parts and sections are made in Mexico and Canada. Automobile makers are already project higher higher prices.
While the economist are waiting for the numbers to verify what is actually happening, they as well as every one else will be paying higher prices for all imported products and any product made in America that uses imported parts.
12
Is Trump's $12 billion bailout of farmers actually an admission on his part that the tariffs are causing economic damage in the U.S.? It sure seems that way, though I'm sure he would never take the blame for causing the problem in the first place.. I'm sure agribusiness is just sorry they can't move some of their production overseas, as Harley-Davidson and some smaller companies are doing.
35
"In other words, for that particular commodity, the smart money seems to think that higher prices will be temporary."
Heh heh. Smart money. If ANYONE were smart in the futures community (or economics, for that matter), the economy wouldn't self destruct every few decades, now would it?
16
What do they care if the economy implodes? They have the money to buy low
2
If we subsidize farmers, doesn't that trigger or invite other nations to subsidize their own? It seems to me I have heard plenty of complaining that this country or that subsidizes its farmers (Japanese rice, for instance) invoking us to complain to the WTO or say it is unfair.
26
We already subsidize agricultural products in the US. Corn is already one of the most heavily subsidized agricultural products in the country, and soybeans are pretty high up there, too, even before the allocation of additional money to offset the impact of the tariffs.
14
@JMD They will don't worry and they will retaliate with their own tariffs...! And it will start again and again...
1
Should one add - another early indicator that tariffs cause problems is the administration proposing multi-billion aid packages, to help stop the bleeding when farmers are cut off at the knees?
38
sandgk--Well, luckily for tRump, Republicans don't care WHERE the money comes from, even if it's their own money, being given back to them. If it comes out of the budget for medicaid, or food stamps, that'll be just hunky dory. So much the better.
8
Follow the money--tariffs can end up in many places including a Wall on the Mexico border. Is anyone following the receipts energizing Trump's enthusiasm? Is anyone going to bail out domestic consumers? There are many pathways to follow damage down.
7
Tariffs are taxes that fall primarily on consumers, through higher prices, and on workers, through reduced wage growth and outright job losses. But the tariffs that are collected by the federal government are applied to the huge deficit created by the tax reductions on the wealthy and corporations (which mostly pass through to owners and executive management through bonuses, share buy backs and dividends). So Trump is essentially using the national security pretext of tariffs to help finance the continuing transfer of wealth from lower and middle classes to the most wealthy. Instead of the myth of trickle-down economics we have the actuality of a rake-up scam, Trump University writ large.
52
@doug mclaren Tariffs are a taxation on all the people! But I am afraid that Trump is thinking to reduce the national debt in more drastic ways, don't forget that Trump is following Putin's orders so do expect some tricky moves on the US international debts and $...
3
Trump will bail out the people he likes and let the ones he doesn't suffer. Today's $12b underwriting of corporate farmers is but one example.
30
GnarlyGdude--Makes me hope China will increase its tariffs on agriculture. Those who voted for tRump should pay for it. Bigly.
2
@GnarlyGdude, you nailed it!
$12 billion would go a long way to helping the brown people in Puerto Rico. But they're ingrates and lazy and the wrong color so they're on their own.
History will not be kind to this traitor and his administration.
6
@GnarlyGdude
they are also among his followers, he needs to keep them relatively happy.
1
The July 2018 issue of Fortune magazine contains a series of insightful articles discussing artificial intelligence (AI). Since an avowed goal of the trade war is to gain better protections for the IT sector in the US, the AI problems noted in Fortune and Mr Irwin's attempts to detect a pattern in the changing economic data are similar.
The AI sector of IT per Fortune is dependent on the very accurate, complete, and telling data sets that are used to prime the AI skeins developed in this sector. Yet, errors arise, for example, due to past discriminatory practices aimed at women, blacks, and other minorities; so these past data sets are riddled with biases, that can infect or taint these interpretive skeins.
Also, as this autocorrelated flow of data continuously changes, a time gap can develop between the AI skeins developed to interpret it and this data flow; similar to Mr Irwin's problem of gathering timely macroeconomic data that signal a change in the patterns of the underlying economic data.
Farmers have recently experienced years of reduced income for many reasons. Their debt loads are very high. IT firms, some of the prime beneficiaries of this trade war, are probably less reluctant warriors, some with balance sheets flush with recently repatriated cash. Real estate values and turnover in farm country may signal trouble. The IT sector itself, with its cash and large ratio of Sales/Employees, may be tardy with actionable data.
[1:09p Tu 7/24 Greenville NC]
2
John Joseph Laffiteau MS in Econ--The moral to this story is that AI can be programmed to give a certain designated result. AI has no ethics, or sense of right and wrong. That's the biggest danger to all of us, who have no power.
4
@John Joseph Laffiteau MS in Econ
As mentioned, these modeling AI programs are dependent on accurate data. Do you think that the data provided by our current government will be accurate? I don't. GIGO...
3
@ChesBay:
Years ago, there was a debate about whether the Western Canon, a store of Literature used for literary study should be made more inclusive by broadening this inventory to include more Asian, African, and other excluded works of Literature. Also, "deconstruction" became a literary technique used for critiquing authors' works that emphasized transparency in studying and discovering unintended biases in these authors' works. There was an acknowledged dearth of women and other minority writers in the literary portfolio that was needed to broaden readers' perspectives and to help make them more nuanced. This same general problem now seems to have begun to be addressed in the IT sector. It seems to be elemental to AI.
For examples: Problems arise:
1) If the critical data sets selected to develop underlying skeins for pattern recognition are not reflective of the phenomena under study, due to selection bias, then wrong patterns will be assigned.
2) Also, bias can occur in weighting these data points when developing these skeins; and errors will result.
But, at least ideally, if AI creators try to ensure that the data sets are accurate, and precise interpretive skeins are developed from these data sets; then this can simply become a method to speak truth to power.
[JJL 7/25 W 11:02 am Greenville NC]
1
Irwin has given us what I assume is an excellent guide to the future of some trees. He has excluded the forest from his analysis.
Larger than any damage to the economy as a whole, or even to certain sectors, is the damage that the tariffs, and many other Trump craziness, does to the reputation of the US in the world. On this, it seems to me that a lot of damage has already been done. What government would now make a deal with a government that breaks its words, its contracts (aka treaties) and even its basic policy directions the way we have been doing since Trump took office? "A good reputation is hard to gain and easy to lose" and we are already well-advanced in the process of losing ours. If Donald Trump has failed to "preserve and protect" the USA, it's largely in his nearly-insane and long-term damaging foreign policy initiatives.
23
Don’t forget that this loss of international credibility will affect our previously golden credit rating among our debt holders internationally. The GOP already put a dent in our reputation when they decided to default (momentarily). This Administration has made clear its promises are worthless.
4
Housing starts are down for the 3rd month in a row; wages are flat- in real terms, still trending lower due to inflation. Still to come is the long hard bite of the GOP tax-cut inflation. The "Unemployment Rate" - a definitional joke - means only that minimum wage Mc-jobs go unfilled by people already working 3 jobs. Soon the attendant increase in small business failures will need to be better hidden from view.
Indicators point to a continuation of the GOP/Trump Recession for the middle class and poor. The Elites, notsomuch.
32
How about we all chip in our own personal experiences and see what it adds up to? Here’s mine—the estimate for building/remodeling an ADU on our property just went up in anticipation of increased materials cost.
16
Trump doesn't make deals, he tears them up and makes chaos instead. Tariffs on steel and aluminum affect industries that provide most of our remaining manufacturing jobs and those bearing the brunt of the retaliation are farmers who voted for Trump.
Let's hope that they wise up and vote the Republicans out of office in November.
18
Trump and the GOP will just spend to cover up the damage until after the midterms - as they have already done in announcing $12B to farmers.
20
Maybe one way is to notice when the "eliminate the welfare state" autocracy announces a $12 billion aid program to farmers who can't sell their produce on the other side of the trade barrier....
22
For those keeping score...I understand that Trump administration is proposing some $12B USD to mitigate the impact of the trade war on the American farmer. Why am I not surprised? Create a problem unnecessarily, then spend like the dickens to fix it, while the other important concerns like infrastructure and healthcare get completely ignored. This isn't an administration. This is the 1,461 Day Massacre of all that we hold near and dear.
55
Our local alternative weekly just reduced the physical size of its footprint due to the 30 percent tariff on Canadian newsprint. (Clearly a National Security risk!)
But this paper is decidedly anti-45, so there's more #winning for you...
17
I just heard a report on NPR stating that the US steel industry has just raised their prices about 30%. So unless your company has a steel tariff “variance”, you will be paying those higher costs for products made from steel, and the costs will be extended to consumers. So it’s actually worse that before the tariffs were imposed. Well, at least US steel companies are making a profit, and no doubt Wilbur Ross’s lifelong U.S. ArcelorMittal investment will pay off.
14
Tariffs are hurting the economy. There is a bill to bailout farmers going through congress right now to the tune of 12 Billion dollars to bail out the farmers for Trumps Traiffs. No infrastructure funds, cut Medicare or Medicaid funds, cut education funds, cut food stamps, but subsidies for farmers because Trump's self imposed crisis hurt them. That's your money and my money he's throwing away because he doesn't know what he's doing.
47
I would be much more interested in an article about how the Trade War benefits the economy. Or anything else for that matter.
Isn't that why we started the Trade War?
5
@Frank S. We didn't start the trade war. Trump did.
4
Ask Don Trump.
He'll tell you.
It's up to you whether to believe him or not, though.
2
It's already started. Ivanka is closing down her business!
26
It would seem the president does indeed have an influence on both national (primarily) and international economies. And, as we're seeing today with Agriculture Department plans to announce $12 billion in emergency aid to farmers, it's mostly negative. The clear exception is the military-industrial sector which, illogically (given the fact we outspend the next 7 countries in the world, combined, on "defense") "somehow" keeps grabbing more and more tax dollars, and we are not officially at war. Amazing.
Consumers can expect to enjoy a new round of inflation, thanks to the "president"'s irrational tariffs, not to mention his withdrawal from international agreements. A new recession is on the horizon. Past time to replace this fool.
15
You accurately point out that the indicators of economic health are lagging indicators.By the time the data turns south we will be in no shape to reverse course.By then there will be no short term fixes.Better not to start a trade war- Mr Trump will regret his bravado about punishing our trading partners.He is systematically ruining a good economy and he cannot patch the gaping holes with money for farmers or any other injured group.He has the weakest possible economic advisors- someone needs to step up soon and give them a lesson in Econ 101.
15
@Janet Michael
Are you kidding? "Mr Trump will regret his bravado about punishing our trading partners."
When has Trump ever expressed his regret about anything?
Oh yes, he has often regretted appointing Jeff Sessions as AG, yet he keeps him in place to do more of his evil things like his 0 tolerance policy.
4
The Trump faithful currently feeling the pain of his trade wars are, at the moment, willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for long term better deals. Trusting the "gut" of a paper billionaire with a trail of failed business follies as long as the lies on his twitter feed. Good luck with that. Maybe they'll all get ceremonial diplomas from Trump U after they wind up losing the family farm.
20
I don't like like the trade war either. Tariffs are an attempt to address a trade imbalance which is a symptom, but not the root, of our economic challenges which are rooted in a decades of bad policies and practices. Still, can the NY Times get its act together? As journalists? As economists? As scientists? Your job is to measure how the trade war IMPACTS the economy. Not how it DAMAGES it. You may find that there is damage but you have to be objective in what you're looking for.
1
@SJG
All the worldwide tariff system has been balanced and balanced itself over decades, steered and accepted by the USA.
No bad policies and practices.
It's a globalised world. Your Hero tries to destroy that but has no feeling, no clu about these complex mechanisms and will finally make the rest of the world greater; the USA demolished in dirt, and poverty.
4
You know it's starting to damage the economy as soon as Trump sends a $12 billion check to your industrial farming operation.
8
Trump is bailing out American farmers to the tune of 12 billion dollars of taxpayer money. That is an indicator that the trade wars are doing economic damage now!
5
Trump/GOP is pro business; pro Russia. Money and power is their mantra. Nothing is stopping them now; they thumb their noses at everyone.Chaos is Trump's forte;how America will end up is anyones guess.If America survives Trump/GOP;it will be a miracle. Ray Sipe
8
Or you can just look at Washington Post today:
"White House readies plan for $12 billion in emergency aid to farmers caught in Trump’s escalating trade war"
6
It also depends on the role of other (alternative) countries in a so-called trade war.
2
US is a big country and it has significant buffer capacity and a rather large inertia. It will take around 5-6 months for the final definitive results to show. But jobs are more sensitive indicators and has a relatively fast response time. The same also applies to China and, fortunately or unfortunately, it has a still larger inertia. Being a communist country, China has considerable advantage in this game.
4
@chakumi
And China, I suspect, has more collective will to endure momentary set-backs than we do.
3
How can we tell? You're kidding, right? Ask any farmer, anywhere. If it's not the tariffs, it's the lack of foreign farm workers. Have you ever heard the old saw, "we won't know it's a recession until we're in the middle of it?" An, this foolish business of "we don't have any real inflation..." Ask any person who buys stuff. We have inflation.
10
When does the middle-class get an aid package?
26
Not doing any meaningful ecoconic damage? Then why does Trump see the need to prop up farmers? Anyone yet asked the question "is it doing any good"?
This trade war is yet another cynical ploy designed to increase and solidify Trump's base. Trump doesn't have a clue. He flies by the seat of his pants and his crash is going to burn us all.
11
My husband owns his business and works in steel. His costs have increased 23%. We weren't flush before these tariffs. Who's going to cover our family's losses? We are.
Elect a clown, expect a circus.
What a nightmare.
53
@nee breslin
Unfortunately Trump only cares about his base and the very wealthy, the middle class be dammed. With the 12 billion, yes with a big B, bailout for the farmers he is buying votes for his re-election. God help us!
4
Trump has no economic policy. Just as Trump stirs his uninformed and racist base with unfounded claims of Mexican caravans filled with murderers and rapists crossing the border, he whips up their enthusiasm with his foolhardy anti-Chinese trade war. It is not about economic or trade policy it is about running a non-stop election campaign, with zero concern for the consequences for most American businesses or jobs. Certain special intersts will prevail at the expense of all other Americans. Just follow the mony to know who these special interests are.
This trade war is Trump being the usual ignorant and incompetent Trump - a full time disgrace and danger to our nation. And the Republican so-called leadership? Hiding under their desks on Capitol Hill. Shame on them all. Vote them all into oblivion
26
“Vote Them Into Oblivion!” That would make a great bumper sticker for the next few months, until the elections.
But kidding aside, you’ve identified the best, and maybe only way we can fight back against this nut job in the White House and his spineless GOP cronies, afraid of their own shadows.
On the plus side, the Dems seem to be getting their act together and finding strong local candidates to address local issues. Some areas of the country will respond to a far-left agenda ala Warren and Sanders. I think for most Americans, a centrist approach makes the most sense, while still keeping the focus on local issues and not relentless Trump bashing. That latter tactic hurt the entire Democratic Party in 2016.
Trump, inexplicably, still has a lot of supporters. But at best, they represent a plurality of all voters. You can also bet that they will vote, so it’s even more important for the Dems to 1) pick a message (other than Trump bashing and 2) stay on message throughout. It’s fine to point our where policies, few as he has, are hurting people. But at a local level, people want to know what their local elected officials will do for them.
There’s hope, and we have 2020, but an important step for us to get back to sanity is to secure a Dem majority in the House, and ideally the Senate as well. That’s a tall order and will require an all-out grassroots effort by the Dems. And they have to not only drown out Trump’s toxic message, and the Russian’s.
4
Trump = The King of Bankruptcy put in charge of America's economy by American citizens...
Who's the bigger fool here?
25
Exactly and this has been disturbing for a long time
5
The surest sign so far has to be the $14 billion of welfare trump just offered to farmers. I guess you right wingers can now join your own welfare state, which was artificially created by your man's idiotic trade wars.
28
Here's where there is real economic damage going on: people who cannot find jobs no matter how hard they try, people who are not being paid decent wages for their labor, an infrastructure that is deteriorating to the point of being a hazard, an education system that is not preparing students for college or work, and an economy that is, by government neglect/design rewarding the economic elites at the expense of the rest of us. And let's not forget a health care system that is so fractured that attempting to access whatever care is needed beyond a check up is also a hazard to one's health and fiscal well being.
Trade war or not, most Americans are still not doing well. We continue to tread water or drown while our politicians, particularly those in the GOP, lavish attention on their rich owners. If I were the GOP I'd go back and read my history on the French Revolution, the rise of Communist Russia, the American Revolution, and a few other revolutions. Most of them occurred because of greed at the very top.
35
French Revolution! Surely, you meant French fries. Fat butt out-of-shape Americans? Please. The America you describe in your first paragraph not only doesn't exist, it never did (it's just that you and yours aren't one of the systematically discriminated against groups in this country so you "see" things differently); further, metaphorically speaking of course, a majority of Americans believe far less in a social contract than in what they can kill by their own hand. The percentage of American's who do not believe in universal health care dramatically proves my point. It isn't "elites," it's our "culturally" instilled greediness catching up with us. America is simply too fat and flatulent to revolt; turn on each other, no doubt; but organize, even loosely, against the state, never happen: brainwashed to the bone; for example, Americans find absolute nothing abnormal, or chilling, really, about saluting the flag before EVERY athletic event. A goose step with the wrist.
4
Anthony Adverse, I am one of the groups discriminated against in America. I'm female, a lesbian, Jewish, and the sibling of an autistic brother. I don't ever remember an America where I was treated fairly when it came to my talents, abilities, intelligence etc., without some demeaning reference to my gender, or my religion (if known).
And I meant French Revolution because what happened there can happen here.
2
Wisdom of the crowd forecasting. It can be valid providing the crowd is not being emotional but nobody with any sense does more than consider it as an interesting factor.
3
Who pays the taxes that will provide farmers with financial aid (announced today) because of the economic harm due to tariffs?
Answer - the same people who are going to be paying more for food, gasoline and housing. All the while the safety net is decimated while Trump plays golf in Mar-a-Lago and repaints Air Force 1. remind me again how much that military parade is going to cost?
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@Vanessa Hall
Financial aid for an issue that cannot be readily identified, here. Noting the NYT published a detailed graphic demonstrating 2016 election demographics, I'd have to say a greater portion of the costs will be carried by the blue urban dwelling city folk of the United States.
2
The truth is that there really is no way to track the effects of a trade war. There are just far too many factors involved. However, that won’t stop any and all critics of the administration from using trade tariffs as the reason for ANY economic indicators going down. And the danger for the economy will be if people actually believe that narrative. The real truth about our economy is that wages are dangerously stagnant, student loan debt is crippling an entire generation, healthcare costs are skyrocketing, and title loans are ballooning towards a bad end. The Fed is also raising interest rates at a fairly crisp clip to try and hedge against inflation. Those are far more realistic reasons for any economic downturn rather than a trade war.
23
$350 billion per year in debt financed stimulus from the Trump Trickle Down Tax Cuts and increased Military spending will paper over some of the damage done by Trump's trade policies; but, at a cost of trillions in additional debt.
Individual farmers and factory workers will lose their jobs; but, the stock market should be just fine, thanks to Trickle Down.
23
One thing that we are learning or will learn from the trump administration is how little influence the president actually has on the economy and a large part of the country. The President can and is making life miserable for a small group of people -- immigrants, the dark-skinned, the "other," and a small group of businesses and farmers. And I think that the President (all presidents) have more power to do negative things rather than positive things. But as for me and everyone I know and, it seems, for the vast majority of the country, the economic expansion which started under President Obama is continuing under trump.
Trump is doing great harm to the country with a tax cut which was much too big and will swell future deficits, with the appointment of some truly reactionary people to the federal bench, and with sever cuts to regulations that relate to clean water, etc. But the bad results from these actions won't be felt for a long time and we don't how they will affect individuals.
Most people seem to judge the president on the basis of the how the economy is doing. The economy of the United States is so big and strong that it takes a long time for the effects of bad policy to show up.
I expect trump to be reelected in 2020. By about 2022 he will have wrecked the economy and we will have a recession. Then in 2024, the electorate will pick a Democratic President and Congress to cleanup the mess.
It is a familiar cycle.
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@Aubrey
If you are right, and Republicans win out in 2020, after the census they will be able to redraw yet again the lines of voting districts to insulate themselves.
13
@Doug I didn't think of that. Republicans will probably control many state legislatures in 2020 (a census years) thru 2022 so we might have even more gerrymandering. I might not live long enough to see the democrats control both Houses of Congress and the Presidency.
1
@Aubrey
" Then in 2024, .... "
WE WILL ALL BE DEAD. (at least I will be given my current age). Good luck.
6
Um. Even if any damage caused by new tariffs to "economic indicators" is minimal (at least at present), I remain unable to ascertain any positive upside to these tariffs. If there are advantages to some groups as a result of tariffs, but the overall effect on most of the country is negative in the long term, why impose these tariffs in the first place? The long term rationale remains foggy & even if they do not destroy our economy, the new tariffs seem poorly planned.
28
This is a strange perspective to look at this issue. Trump should be held accountable not only if he damages your economy but also if these tariffs do not improve the American economy. After all, all of us elect people to adopt and implement policies to improve our lot.
So this data should be monitored to see if for example investments projects and investors confidence are growing, your unemployment rate goes below full employment (!) etc
25
As of mid-July, the evidence that the trade war is doing meaningful economic damage is scarce.
Well, yes, for the US. But not for the PRC
US and PRC stock market indexes
June 15 (announcement of US tariffs on selected PRC products) to today
PRC :
Shanghai SSE composite Index
June 15 3021.90
July 23 2859.54
US :
500 s&p Index
June 15 2779.56
July 23 2801.83
1
@Woof
The first tariff discussion was late January (solar panels) the Dow has lost nearly six percent since then.
3
Studying "markets" these days is ridiculous for the average person around the world. About 1500 people control them all.
Retirees and other 401k investors make $1 and Carl Ichan and his Robber Baron brethren make $1 MILLION. Retirees and other 401k investors lose $1 and Carl Icahn and his Robber Baron brethren MAKE $1 MILLION.
They aren't "markets" they are craps tables and the 1500 or so people who control them are the house. The mafia model - the house wins. Until, of course, the house burns down. Then WE THE PEOPLE lose it all and, since they manipulate it, the Robber Baron and their socially unconscious offspring do just fine. That's HIStory.
73
Just like any other look at the benefits and costs of a policy, we need to consider net benefit, is it positive or negative, and also the distribution of the benefits and the costs--who bears the burden and who receives the benefits? This second part is telling from an equity perspective, but can also shed light on the rationale of what would otherwise appear to be a pretty irrational decision-maker.
10
The problem with the economic mindset that you are advocating is that "on average" hides a tremendous amount of individual dislocation and disruption. It's the same mindset that pooh poohed the loss of rust belt manufacturing jobs without providing much if any safety net or mitigating trade policy. People don't live "on average" they live as individuals. I spoke with a soybean farmer over the weekend who told me that the tariffs will basically wipe away most of his income for the year. If you think that is inconsequential because "on average" most people don't make money from soybeans, you are part of the problem.
82
Today Trump just made farmers a big winner in the tariff war as new is breaking that he will be throwing $12 billion in emergency price support aid (subsidies) to bean and corn farmers. Picking winners and losers is a main strategy in the Trump Tariff Wars.
And for those that don't know, American grain farmers are some of the most highly subsidized groups we have. Many of them for years have received hundreds of thousands of dollars each year to help them out.
This Trade War is all about picking winners and losers at the expense of average Americans while at the same time exploding the national debt.
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@medianone
$12 billion in emergency price support aid (subsidies) to bean and corn farmers..."
Just the very thing that he complained about with China---SUBSIDIES so they can sell below market.
fortunately for me I don't eat soy products or very much corn--even from a can.
As a taxpayer, I'll just have to figure out how to CUT my share of his subsidies when I file my taxes. I'm not about to pay for trumps bad tariffs.
12
The problem with Trump's sledgehammer approach to the financial fabric of this country is exactly that the damage will not be felt for years. But we also must realize that Trump is Mister Bluster on tariffs.I'm sure he will take credit for the low tariffs imposed by the EU and Canada which actually have been at that level for 15 years.....around 3% on average.Most of Trump's actions are really his "howling at the moon" to please his base.In this respect he may be less dangerous than he seems with the exception of his cowardly groveling before the real enemies of the US.
46
Pursuing his vaingloriously stupid trade war to “level the playing field,” Trump is now planning to add $12 billion to our adverse trade imbalance. We are so lucky to have a
'
President with such good instincts that he doesn't need information or intelligence or expert advice. What Trump and we do need is to move him from the White House to a committed sanatorium. Let's help him out, by replacing the uncaring and cowardly congressional GOP with prudent and sympathetic Democrats in November.
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@Joel A. LevittSanitarium? I've come to the same conclusion. I wouldn't have said it eight weeks ago. But it is a clear fact right now.
7
Seems appropriate that the dying tree in the photograph appears to be an American Ash.
48
@Dave B. emerald ash borer, imported from China...
6
A very useful article. Results of the trade war may show quickly in services. Engineering services access cloud based software and is a leading indicator for large capital projects. Shipping uses tracking software and is real time. The information is there but it takes a dedicated economist to search it out and make sense of it. Here's hoping the NYTimes follows up.
14
Cut progressive taxes on Corporations and the very rich and put regressive sales taxes on Consumers and call them tariffs to protect US labor. With magic like this we might need to consider a witch hunt.
65
To be fair, those 2020 soybean futures prices are based on very low trading volume. Near term contracts (less than a year) trade about ten thousand contracts per day; the 2020 contract, perhaps 5 per day.
The 2020 prices are an indication of belief but not a very powerful one.
11
Washington Post reports that Trump is preparing a $12B Emergency Package for Farmers that are being hurt by Trump’s Tariffs.
That news is about 1 hour old, but let’s wait for the numbers! Heh
20
@cat48 - and who is paying for the $12B to rescue farmers put in danger by trump. City folk?
6
Being an old farmer, I'd say if you have questions about the economy, ask a farmer. They are always on the frontline of any tariff fight, and always suffer the biggest consequence - and through no fault of their own except trying to survive in a business already fraught with risk.
Although I doubt Trump is overly worried about failing farmers, or the suicides that will come with it. I'm sure he has big corporate friends willing to buy up their land at a few cents on the dollar.
250
@James Devlin
I am a Canadian living in an agriculture region and I get to speak to a number of our local farmers. They all hate Trump but love what he is doing. He is a gift that keeps on giving especially farmers living on our side of the border.
For myself as a consumer , we are still a week or two away from Ontario peaches but but Spain's peaches and nectarines are wonderful till the real thing comes along.
11
@James Devlin - Interesting perspective. I'd welcome your opinion on why so many farmers voted for an NYC con artist who went bankrupt multiple times.
17
@James Devlin
" They are always on the frontline of any tariff fight, and always suffer the biggest consequence - and through no fault of their own except trying to survive in a business already fraught with risk."
Except this time THEY VOTED FOR IT!!! I have no sympathy for people who chose hatred, bigotry and selfishness over the health and well being of ALL who live in our country. The nasty chickens (vultures?) are coming home to roost. I have very little sympathy for those who are suffering from the very policies they embraced when they voted for this vile creature. I only have sympathy for those who truly are caught up in this nightmare through no fault of their own. But from most of those interviewed it seems the majority of those being most affected by these tariffs voted for, and still support, this incompetent president. As the saying goes "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me." They're only getting what they voted for. Were they ignorant enough to believe that there would be no fall-out from our trading partners? Will they hit bottom and have a day of reckoning, a "come to Jesus" moment? It seems doubtful since his support from his rabid base is as stubborn as ever. But trump is quickly finding out that countries can't be threatened and pushed around like the small businesses he stiffed through the years or the ignorant rubes he took advantage of. They can, and do, fight back. Good for them!
12
As Comrade Trump strangles information coming from the Govt, any negative indicators will be modified by his henchmen. You realize that he has no problem lying about anything. So this leaves the public in the dark about negative economic shifts. The only thing you can do is watch your own budget and prices in the market place. This is a classic ploy of how Russia treats it's people.
25
Right now Liberals = Democrats= The Media are preying for damage to the economy...even better a recession.
Because of Trump=Republican hatred the left would rather see their own lives negatively affected than have Trump win an issue.
Oh,,and these are the same people that have " hate has no home here" lawn signs.
3
@Joe Paper Some people are so deep in their bubble that when a positive article that says the larger economic impact on the trade skirmish is currently limited they still need to cast it into partisan terms. Congrats on being that person.
57
@Joe Paper I partially agree with your sentiment, but you've got it wrong. The left "expects" trump's actions to damage the economy because history has shown trade wars to be a zero-sum game. The left "hopes" the damage will come sooner-than-later, so trumpists will realize their folly and we can all come together to course-correct before any further damage can happen.
110
@Joe Paper
No one is praying for the economy to crash, not even the "left". There's simply no need, we will head into a recession one way or another as it is part of the "ebb-and-flow" of the economy. The question you should ask yourself is how severe it will be and what kind of support system is in place for people when it happens? If you are part of the Mar-a-Lago "crowd", good for you! The rest of us are left to pay for your extravagances and fend for ourselves.
11
How will you be able to tell Trump's trade war is hurting the economy?
You can tell by the $12 billion dollar bailout for farmers that Trump is proposing.
266
Would the just-announced $12 Billion in aid to farmers affected by the idiocy be an indicator?
I am just sick-and-tired of all of this winning from a charlatan who has declared bankruptcy, how many times now?
November cannot get here soon enough.
In the meantime be sure to personally ensure that you haven't been purged from the voting rolls.
121
The market would zoom up for awhile at least if Trump would just declare victory and back off of his anti-trade policies, as it seems most people think he will do before long. But it's an added pain having a capricious president when trying to decide how to invest retirement savings.
23
And don’t forget about the destructive effects of Trump-GOP Trickle Down Fraudonomics, which harms the economy further by increasing income inequality, drives up interest rates via increased deficits, and suffocates growth in consumer demand.
The next Republican Great Depression is right around the corner, thanks to sociopathic Greed Over People.
147
The democrat Governor of my very red state sent a letter to the White House politely asking for a quick resolution to the tariffs. Apparently the tariffs are going to wreak havoc on our economy: #1 ports/ shipping business (data will show quickly), #2 new industrial projects delayed, #3 agriculture impact. Silver lining #2 is a temporary reprieve for the environment! I
30
This article should also mention more doom.
9
Very interesting. I suggest The Upshot keep close tabs on all those indicators and keep us informed.
24
The article helps us to understand and get a glimpse at the tell-tail signs for the monetary system. But what of our future diplomatic relations with our Allies and trading partners? Who will trust us again? Canada, no, Mexico, no, the EU, no, China, no, Japan, no, the UK, no, South Korea, no, and no, no, no....
68
Here's another 'index' to look for: federal welfare to protect farmers affected by tariffs. Just announced today. Trump's base in the Midwest is on the farm. I guarantee that people like Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa, and others, plead their case to the White House, since soybean prices are dropping in response to tariffs. The irony is that as Republicans attempt to gut social safety net programs, they are panicking and providing 'welfare' to farmers, in order to shore up their base. I consider this a crack in the economic and moral fabric. Long term, we'll see how bad this gets, and for whom.
298
@Down62, not for the 1.0%, they never suffer...
4
@Down6, my brother is a farmer. We just had a discussion this weekend with my elderly mother, who is at the point of dementia where she needs assistance with her meds and finances. So, now we are co-trustees with her on her assets (her financial advisor seems to keep re-investing more of her money into equities--including emerging market funds, which have taken a major dive since earlier in the year). My brother is worried about having pesky energy producers or others into swindling my mother into signing contracts with them. One in particular stores his equipment on non-energy producing land that my brother now owns and makes ruts on ag-producing land. This person is just trying to scratch out a living (his family is on food stamps) and my brother wishes no animosity towards him, but his squatting with his equipment on a former lease is a nuisance for my brother. Republican politician yard signs everywhere and vicious anti-govt propaganda arrives in my mother's new PO box. Do these people realize how much they are demonizing their own by voting for these candidates who pander about Washington DC elites when it appears they fully intend to join them? A sub-contractor for a defense industry plant opened in the last couple of years offering mainly $12/hour jobs and you'd think it was a real economic boon to the area. A Dollar Store economy. The self-employed food stamp recipient would still need those food stamps even if he did go get whatever lousy job was available.
4
@Down62
It won't get bad for Big Ag; it will impact small farmers who are struggling to survive right now competing against big corporations buying up farm land. The products produced by these big conglomerates will not help those who hope their nut orchards will survive in the new economy; nuts will be exported to the richest markets, e.g.China. Just as small businesses on Main St. could not compete with Wal-Mart, the small farmer will not be able to compete with a giant competitor. The death of small towns and farms will happen gradually, by attrition. The small independent farmer will be looking for work with those who bought him out.
4
Sounds like a great dashboard. Perhaps the NYTimes can publish it, like they do the S&P500 index, interest rates, employment, etc.? Grouping that data together would be very useful to us individuals who don't have access to those reports. It would inform our voting as well as our decisions about whether to make a large expenditure or hunker down.
28
The average voter is not a sophisticated type who looks at, let alone, understands economic indicators. This person will measure things like his own job - whether or not he has one and does it pay a meaningful wage. Tied into his job is health insurance - or not. It doesn't take a vast number of voters to swing an election so overall indicators would be better placed looking at specific regions. This administration, like any other, lives or dies on whether or not the voters share their enthusiasm for various policies. As is the case for movies or books, a work can be a critical success but a commercial bust.
27
This article fails to mention the 20% drop in already low agriculture commodity prices. The hit on the agriculture economy is here and real already.
55
For-profit businesses are in business to make profits in the US, in Europe, everywhere. Businesses operate where they can make the most profits...the most profits after tax.
The US adopted the territorial taxation system last year. This system is nothing more than an extension of the arm's length/separate taxation system that allows, nay, encourages multinational corporations to shift pre-tax profits to subsidiaries purposely located in tax haven countries like Luxembourg, the Isle of Man, and Bermuda. All multinational corporations do this aided by the Big Four accounting firms.
Mr. Irwin, if you don't believe me, please watch two documentaries: "The Town that Took on the Taxman" and "Taxodus." Both are available on YouTube. Each is approximately on hour long. The first is a BBC production, the second a Dutch production.
The remedy for the massive tax avoidance by multinationals is unitary taxation on a worldwide basis first approved at the American state level by the US Supreme Court in their 1983 Container decision and again in their 1994 Barclays Bank and Colgate-Palmolive decisions. Unfortunately, only the State of Alaska uses worldwide unitary taxation. Why only one? Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.
Mr. Irwin, if you go to Thatcher's foundation website and search there for unitary taxation, you can read how Britain's best interests trumped America's best interests. Breaking Britannia's hold on its tax havens is the key to a worldwide level playing field.
20
It would be nice to see a graph of all these indicators from the beginning of the Trump Presidency to now and then, beyond. It might be a convincing argument for some to consider who they voted for and who they should vote for next time.
42
As prices of imports increase, investment trend down, and agricultural commodities become cheaper (as the loss or foreign markets depress prices), consumers will start to feel the bite. It will be small at first. Eventually this will start cascading throughout the economy, and may be the tipping point for the beginning of the Trump Recession. The only good news from an economic contraction is it’ll likely be in time to destroy any thin hope he as if re-election, so our nation can begin its process of repairing the damage he and his complicit GOP Congress caused.
98
@Demosthenes - a good argument but it omits the famous economists' caveat: "other things being equal".
A strongly growing economy can afford to shrug off some drag. Even budget deficits will stimulate growth.
Inflationary pressures may depreciate the dollar but if the EU continues to struggle, there is no alternative reserve currency.
If the PRC is ready to face a depreciation of ts dollar assets by selling Treasury bonds, then things get serious. US interest rates (car loans, credit cards, mortgages shoot up). Trump voters are not savers: that will hit them.
8
@Demosthenes. Amen.
2
The article also mentions large US exporters such as Boeing, Caterpillar, and John Deere. I would also mention the largest US importer, Wal-Mart.
130
So Beth Bovino- “direct effects on US economy are still small/ still tariffs hurt and we’re starting to see precursors of an impact already “. What’s the use your non helpful insight or you’re apparent expertise- when you speak double speak. Man, take a position please. Speaking out of both sides of your mouth or as my Dad would say “speaking from your (nice anatomical words here) donkey end”.
I'm not sure I would feel sorry for Walmart. They had a part in this.
4
@Margo - It's not about "feeling sorry for Walmart". Rather, it's about the impact that trouble for Walmart will have on their employees and on consumers.
1
I'm not a professional economist, but one way I've found to tell whether Trump's trade war is damaging the economy is when there's an article on the front page of the NYT titled "Farmers to Get $12 Billion to Ease Pain From Trade War"
176
@Randall - Bingo!!!
1
@Randall
Will Donald the Great Disrupter come to his senses before he makes a total mess of the economy.
Never has the NYTimes written so much about trade and tariffs. There is a market for hard facts and good analysis.
A question: what can the U.S. export to reduce the trade deficit?
lookup...the top 10 U.S. exports.
Would the NYT please give a sample of what local papers are reporting in Trump country.
thank you
ancient Canadian economist
3
If it was only 12 billion. It's worse than that, farmers were paying taxes on their earnings and employees wages were taxed. No earnings no incoming tax dollars and employees will get unemployment checks. It's going to be much more than 12 Billion dollars when you subtract the lost tax revenue and unemployment benifits.
3