Well Trump voters , at least Trump got Mexico to pay for that "Big Beautiful , Tall Wall " .…... Ooooooooh , well according to Sec. of Treasury Mnuchin, the new wall has been started (as NBC , ABC, etc. pointed out , NO it hasn`t)
So just sit back and enjoy your billion tax cut like Trump & his abettors. Life is a bowl of cherries if you work on Wall St or don`t get sick or want to retire before you die.
America , what have you done to yourself. You are better than Trump and his abettors , aren`t you ?
4
If it ain't broke, don't fix it; but Donald Trump did, just to reverse Obama and put his stamp.
The Chinese have a saying, a new official taking in his position will start three fires--Trump not only did so, but the fires are going out of control. The simple reason? Trump is incompetent and unsuited for the job.
5
I don’t want it but if you do I suppose I’ll keep it. The US wants every other country to do well as long as they have everything they want first. Well the rest of the world doesn’t want to beg for your table scraps and will find a meal elsewhere. Enjoy.
5
May be. Could be. This is all speculative, and fretting from biased sources who at best are holding back because of the uncertainty of it all. China has way more to lose than the United States. They buy mostly raw materials from us and sell back manufactured products at a value of five to one, undercutting our own industries and treating us the way Britain once treated India. Trump did not start this trade battle. He's just finally decided to fight back after years of leaders like Obama and Bush turning their backs on the industrial Midwest and looking out primarily for Wall Street and Silicon Valley. Clinton was actually complicit in selling out our manufacturing base to China on behalf of WalMart. His wife paid the price for that betrayal. Anti-globalism is the new majority, left and right, with Schumer and Sherrod Brown supporting the fight back against China.
The tariffs and change in trade posture are actually quite popular among the unwashed masses. Wall Street might own most of the media but that's only caused the media to lose all credibility. Waves of hype and no substance. Economy added another 230,000 jobs last month. China is going to break before the U.S. does.
1
"The tariffs and change in trade posture are actually quite popular among the unwashed masses"--Please give the
readers of the NY Times a break and be specific,don't
write in generalities and with such snobbism.What country are you in?? Does it begin with a "R"?
2
Well,after reading this article ,I can understand why Mr.Trump
would go to the state of Montana to air his views.Do people in
Montana understand how their own daily life is going to be
affected with Mr.Trump's tariffs on China? This article really gave me insight,in a very "down to earth"way, so I really could
comprehend how these tariffs will affect my life.I'm thankful that I believe the Lord God only knows what the future will bring
because I would really get scared otherwise! I am considering
buying a new dryer while I am still able to afford it!
1
With tariffs on, can recession be far behind? Are you lovin’ all the winning yet?
9
I suggest a nationwide boycott of Walmart for removing the "Impeach 45" t-shirts from their shelves.
4
LISTEN UP!!!
November 6, 2018. That's the date on which 33 senate seats, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 14 governorship's will be up for re-election. Put it on your calendar now and be prepared to be an informed voter. If you are worried, concerned, angry, disappointed about the direction the government is going this is the most effective way to make a change, stop complaining and start planning. Remember the president is only one cog in the government machine, and you can make effective change through voting for your local and state representatives, this is the check that can balance this situation. Pass it on…. I was told to pass this on so this people is very important. Be prepared.
11
Makes me think of that old “ Chicago Boys” strategy where you intentionally mess up your own economy and then flip the government into a dictatorship. Worked in Chile (and a few other places). Economic “Shock and Awe.”
6
Donald Trump. Hero to the poorly educated. Heck, he even celebrated winning the “poorly educated” vote in Nevada. “I love the poorly educated.” No doubt.
5
This is the pathway to war. And the next big war will be the last. We may step off this path, but only once the damage is readily apparent. How much investment will have to be deferred, how many jobs will have to be lost, before we realize this course is the wrong one? America, in large part, made the system we have today and now has a leader who has decided it no longer suits us and so he wants to change the rules by trying to bully friends and foes alike. It’s incredibly disheartening, disturbing and in the end, ignorant...oh, and arrogant too! Trump is a dotard; he is the greatest single threat to national security.
8
If he’s a trumpet, then boo, boo, hoo.
Every single trump voter rightfully deserves every ounce of pain and suffering that awaits them.
5
Trump likes to go by his gut which is fed by his meager understanding of most everything and his giant ego and thirst for revenge. It was one thing when it resulted in his own businesses going under and hundreds of lawsuits. It is another to put this fool at the control of the largest economy in the world.
11
I am already sooo tired of winning
3
If turning off the lights is the worst thing to happen to manufacturers, my mother would feel validated. She grew up during the depression and pounded that notion of turning out lights into my sister’s and my head as soon as we could reach a light switch. I’m still waiting for the Apocalypse though, what’s taking Trump? Two left feet, apparently.
1
With my children, we followed the "Love & Logic" philosophy, which stressed letting bad decisions result in consequences, with offerings of consultation and empathy.
Trump voters: I'm so sorry that your decision to vote for a carnival barker, whose only tangible offering to you was a red ball cap with a slogan, looks like it's not working out. Now that your factory may lay you off, that must be really sad for you. What are you going to do now? Would you like to know what voters in other times and other democracies have done in the same situation?
5
Trump's objective has been to eliminate Obama's legacy so why not take the economy down as well.
7
I'm not usually mean and I'm definitely not generally a cut-nose-spite-face type, but I hope every Trump voter feels the ill effects of their terrible choice.
4
"John Ferriola, president of Nucor, the largest American steel maker, said growing demand — driven by tax cuts and a rollback in federal regulation — was primarily responsible for the price increases."
Clearly Ferriola has bought into the Trump economics nonsense. His company sits atop a supply chain that can charge the Vaughans and Accu-Swiss whatever it wants and he masks its ability to do so with mindless blather about federal regulations and tax cuts. Tariffs are the life blood on the monopolists like Nucor.
7
We should drop all tariffs against all countries except one: China. Not against the Chinese people, just China. They are expanding rapidly all over the world with their skewed form of government, they continue to brainwash and work against their own segments of people who are not Han-Chinese, they ruthlessly build islands to fortify, far away from their boarders to secure the natural resources of others in the future, they don’t allow private ownership in their own country by foreign companies but get it for themselves abroad, they keep the value of their currency fictitiously low to gobble up market share at the expense of other nations, then they have the gall to look the other way when their manufacturing arm copies the trade-marked goods of western countries in an orgy of unbridled expansion. Who suffers? We in the west do. Oh not the western corporate horde; they make the most (short term) profit when China is allowed free reign. The general local economy suffers LONG TERM. And even the Chinese people suffer because they give up on culture and local traditions to move to the big soldering-iron smog-filled cities. To top it off, they prop up a dime-store dictator in Kim Jong Un to keep economic powerhouses like South Korea at bay. Even if he kills his own people. What a joke! That’s not even funny! As far as I’m concerned we shouldn’t be doing business with China at all! We should be building up other nations especially to our south. That’s the truth, can you handle it?
2
Companies that supported trump and their employees, who drive to work in confederate-flag-adorned pickup trucks sporting MAGA hats, are confronting a calamity of their own making. A manufacturer turns off the lights to save money as the cost of making stainless steel products rises, thanks to their take-America-back guy. That company is trying to avoid the inevitable—laying off the trump-supporting employees. (We already know that trump will blame the “cowardly companies” for failing to understand his brilliance.)
Trump-loving companies and their deluded employees are biding their time, trying to concoct a narrative full of lies and incoherence that blames someone else for the impending economic catastrophe—the blacks, the immigrants, MS-13. Because blaming Obama alone, this time around, will not be enough.
8
Trump was always ready to start a trade war because he wouldn't be on the front lines.
4
Separated at birth: Donald Trump and Nicolas Maduro? The only people who might prosper from the current administration's boneheaded policies are plumbers, because everything is going down the drain so fast.
4
We have a highly accomplished former president of a university in the White House.
Which university?
Trump University!
(Whistling while I sharpen my pitchfork)
4
So, we outspend Germany to protect Germany from the Russians. Then Germany buys stuff from Russia instead of us.
1
I thought trump’s missteps were stupidity, hard-headedness, or plain-old bullying. Ask yourself: Who benefits and how do they benefit from the global economic turmoil? Perhaps:
A) China
B) North Korea
C) Russia
D) All of the Above
I think it’s D.
Based on trump’s proven pattern, whatever he says, he means the opposite; trump’s Make America Great Again (his prosperity lie) is a Fake Meme, it’s Snake Oil, a smoke-screen.
trump isn’t trying to return the USA back to the ‘50s; he’s clearing a path for "D." His chaos is calculated to keep us off-balance while he methodically neuters the US. trump’s tariffs may enable other countries to fill the gap left by ours. For example, Brazil is already filling the soybean market gap left by our farmers.
To make it concrete, trump is pulling the US out of every Agreement, Accord and organization established to stabilize relationships around the world. Again, a simple question, Who benefits and how do they benefit?
A) China enters open markets abroad absent US competition,
B) North Korea improve its nuclear capabilities; the US suspends military exercises,
C) Russia benefits by the suspended military exercises. Should Russia move to occupy any country to the southeast, She won’t worry about the US intervening, unless there’s oil.
Make America Great Again is a Fake Meme, and if it your eyes are stinging, it’s all that smoke trump’s blowing while he openly does the opposite of what he says with the GOPs silent complicit approval.
7
Plan A as Tariffs Hit:
Boycott every last one of Trump's properties.
4
Another venture failed financial venture for Trump by becoming President of the U.S. Except this time it won't be harmful to a handful of investors, it will decimate millions!
2
Only till the economy crashes will sanity return.
2
Wait, wait! Let me guess- cut workers’ salaries and benefits?
15
I was just gonna say that, but you should add “ steal some pension money and/or raise worker’s insurance company co-pays.”
4
Maybe some of those people who stand behind trump and wave signs at his rallies will be affected by his tariff war, and will discover what a phony and fraud he truly is. He cares nothing for the working man and woman, only what lines his own family's pockets.
'In the long run tariffs will be good for the country'- tell that to the family who can't afford to buy groceries today or next week. Tell that to the family who can't get food stamps because the program was cut.
BUT, let's remember he wants a parade. Now what could be more important?
21
Presumably these guys all voted for Trump, so my guess is that when the day comes that they have to close up shop due to his economic grenades, they’ll be blasting the national anthem as the last workers file out, never prouder than the day they could finally be a part of all the winning and greatness. Or is it possible the actual reality of his slapdash policies will finally have an impact in Trump country? Maybe, but I’m not counting on it.
27
So some of these Trump supporters will lose their businesses, homes, jobs, kids won't go to college, and when he finishes causing this catastrophe and reverses this mess and makes himself look like a savior , where will they be? And oh by the way, none of this touches him, his family, nor his businesses. He doesn't lose a thing. But hey, he's your guy. And he uses all who stand by him eventually. But why think rationally? You might save yourselves, your families. That's all.
23
In Trumpian world, bankruptcy means success. And MAGA is when we pay higher price for raw material due to higher import tarrif as well as higher price charged by domestic producers for that raw material.
If his followers buy the first charade, why should we think that they will not swallow the second charade hook, line and sinker?
11
Business "success" for Trump was built on the "tools" of bluster, bankruptcy and frivolous lawsuits.
That doesn't work when running a nation.
41
Depends on what your master’s goals are when you are set upon the task of MAGA-ing your own country into the weeds....
1
Here is an "Innovative Solution" . Instead of running the factory for four hours with the lights off, ask each of your employees to spend the same four hours writing letters to Mitch McConnell and every other representative asking for the reinstitution of "checks and balances" to our great nation.
If our Senators and Representatives hear that we want this, perhaps we can return to governmental normalcy?
46
Ms Cohen - thanks for this great reporting. Can you report on why companies that are supposed to need 25% tariffs to "protect" them can then RAISE prices by 25%. Seems like maybe they don't need the tariff, if they can raise prices and stay competitive. Thanks & keep up the great reporting.
19
The CEO of the US Chamber of Commerce said Trump's tariffs threaten to eliminate 2.6 million jobs.
It's a reasonable guess that the majority of those jobs to be wiped out are held by Trump supporters. The electoral college tipped in his favor because of 70,000 votes in a few states he enthralled with his lies about beating foreigners with tariffs.
Numbers don't lie - and he can't declare bankruptcy again to get out of this mess - but the same way his friends are benefiting financially from running immigrant detention centers today, he's sure to have his nearest and dearest developer friends contracted to build Hoovervilles for his unemployed voters tomorrow.
28
Trump's tariffs are just providing cover for all businesses to raise prices charged to consumers. It doesn't matter whether the goods used are directly affected by a new tariff or not.
8
That is how economics work, GOP has been a market forces party, I thought they had some idea about macro economics.
3
Apparently Trump missed a few economic classes and so did his advisors.
17
When's the shareholders' meeting? I move that we vote to direct the board of directors to fire the CEO.
20
Tuesday, November 6, 2018!
3
John Ferriola, president of Nucor, the largest American steel manufacturer said tax cuts and a rollback in federal regulation was primarily responsible for the price increases. So its not the tariffs causing the problem...its just a strong economy.
2
Sure, and it happened just after tariffs were enacted....
14
Democrats need to unite now, establish a "NATO type" alliance that would solidify and strengthen us, as an attack one one is an attack on us all.
7
If necessity is the mother of invention, we may just see how this administration helped manufacturers to perfect manufacturing without any humans at all.
9
“Accu-Swiss doesn’t use imported steel, but the tariffs have ratcheted up the demand for domestic steel, making it harder to find and afford.” I don’t understand why Mr. Trump, whose own industry involves sourcing materials, has adopted such a destructively wrongheaded strategy. Is it much easier to produce the steel used for rebar and I-beams than what is needed for precisely machined stuff such as Mr. Sareshwala’s company makes? I also wonder if it’s not so easy to switch suppliers while remaining confident about one’s product, which is an issue when you can't just slap on gold plating at the end and call it a day. It appears that Mr. Trump is a self-imprisoned victim of his limited experience and knowledge.
15
One can see where this is all headed. Small and medium sized companies will not be able to withstand the supply chain price increases and will be bought up by much larger investment concerns. Those medium sized and larger companies will increase their move to automate and cut jobs (not just the lights) and costs. Trump cares not about the middle and working classes. Trump cares about the “rich people” who will ultimately benefit from these changes in the manufacturing sector. China and other nations will be blamed. It’s like Amazon moving into an industry, undercutting the competition, and then raising prices and monopolizing. This is yet another scheme for looting the wealth of this country, not unlike the recent tax cuts. What appears shortsighted, narcissistic, and obtuse is really consummately malevolent. The question is whether Trump came up with this idea himself or if he was told to do so?
42
Mr. Mays - Your logic makes sense and your prediction is sound but I wonder if Mr. Trump is even capable of thinking it through to that extent (or anywhere near). My sense is that this is just the result of do-it-myself policymaking by someone without the prerequisite knowledge even to be a White House tour guide. He does probably get smiling nods of approval from more cunning fat cats down at the club in Palm Beach.
1
By the Mercers
The kochs
And their friends
They loathe their customers
2
American companies, many who voted for Donald Trump will get hurt. American consumers, many who voted for Donald Trump will get hurt. Many of the companies were helped and saved during the Obama administration, many of those companies quickly forgot that and supported Trump. Trump from the beginning of his run for president was acting as a head of a cult. His gullible supporters quickly became members of his cult. They are still members of his cult. In film parlance the Trump Presidency is "The Manchurian Candidate" meets "Dr. Strangelove." The ending shall be the entire Trump Family is enriched by all of this. The film shall have a sequel. Hopefully, with a happy ending for our Country and the world.
25
“In [one] of conservatism’s founding documents, “The Wealth of Nations,” Adam Smith argued that trade barriers and protections offered to dying industries will not, in the long run, serve the interests of the people. On the contrary, they will lead to an ossified economy that will splinter in the face of competition. President Trump seems not to have grasped this point. His protectionist policies resemble those of postwar socialist governments in Europe, which insulated dysfunctional industries from competition and led not merely to economic stagnation but also to a kind of cultural pessimism that surely goes entirely against the American grain.” (Roger Scruton, July 4, 2018. )
Note that the USA was not alone in increasing tariffs either then (1929) or now – which makes tariffs hard to undo once the damage starts mounting. The Smoot-Hawley Tariffs (1930) preceded the Great Depression; and Tariffs made the initial stock market crash (1929) much worse, adding the “Great” to the depression. (In 1922, Congress passed the Fordney–McCumber Tariff act which increased tariffs on imports.) Economic distress fostered the rise of fascism (now ongoing yet again). We seem to be rushing to the edge of this cliff as fast as we can. This is madness.
21
Clinton left Bush a booming economy. Bush cratered the whole thing. Obama came along and cleaned up the Bush mess. Trump will leave us gasping for breath then it will be time for another Democrat. Notice a pattern?
49
I know! When will it sink in? Wasn’t Hoover a lesson enough?
2
Myself and many of my Canadian fellow citizens are starting to make a conscious effort to buy products that were not produced in the USA. I just emptied my California wine down the sink and I will never buy another bottle. I refuse to travel to the US.
The US has insulted my Prime Minister and my country. I urge our politicians to make trade agreements with anyone BUT the US.
We have awoken and no longer will be your vassal state. We now know you never saw us as friends.
The US voted for Trump and his Republican junta. I hope you choke on them.
40
But why punish California? They didn't vote for him and CA is at the forefront of resisting Trump and all that he stands for.
2
John - I did not vote for Mr. Trump, nor did the majority of my voting fellow U.S. citizens. Our country has not insulted your prime minister, just our transient mistake for a president, and I for one am very sorry for the oafish behavior. Please don't take it out on our wine growers and other producers of goods. We are doing what we can, which isn't much at the moment but come November I hope you will hear us shout, in numbers like never before, ENOUGH!
3
I’m with you John. I have decided to vacation in Canada this year. All purchases have to be from anywhere but the US. Lots of fruits and vegetables from South America. None from the US.
Why are we punishing California? Because it is all the same country. Your system elected this guy and you have to live with the effects. As a foreigner I cannot change your system.
The Deplorables better wake up to the fact that Don The Con has pulled a fast one on them. He simply does not have their interests at heart. Vote Democratic in November or risk losing everything!
26
Their support for trump won't recede, since it wasn't based on the economy anyway Hillary won among voters who cared the most about it).
Their top issue was building a wall to keep brown people out and "getting their country back" from the black guy who dared getting elected president.
39
“Tariffs are a tax, so they took that advantage right back out of there.”
What my gracious, Trumps better give the rich another tax cut then.
12
Although real estate developers and reality TV hosts and ex Wall Street execs might not see where this is likely to go, it is not hard to imagine that in the near future the formula will invert, and the majority of the time will be lights out operation, or merely a night light (in terms of workers) on. And beyond that, maybe four hours a week or a month on.
Wonder how all those workers will feel about the loss of those "job killing" unions then? Full disclosure, I was CEO of publicly held manufacturing company with a union work force.
I have a flashlight to lend if needed.
22
Hmmm. If Accu-Swiss succeeds in running these machines unattended for four hours in the dark, they will be able to experiment with running them unattended in the day-time without lights - or workers. You could have one guy at a desk looking at the instrumentation - sensors on each machine with thresholds that indicate when a machine needs to cool down or have a tool change. Then we are one step away from the future workplace where there will be one guy and a dog. The guy is there to feed the dog, and the dog is there to make sure the guy doesn't touch anything. One problem. Who will be left that has any money to buy any Accu-Swiss products once there's no more employees = consumers?
18
The price of almost everything is going to go up, up. Is it possible the Federal Reserve will slow down the raising of interest rates? It’s now close to 5% interest on a home mortgage. The new home sales are bound to suffer. As mentioned over and over again Trump is hurting the very base that got him elected. Will his base stick with him?
14
What if companies take this blow to begin automating more? What if these tariffs are the thing that finally eliminates the cost issue between full automation and paying employees? When natural gas became cheaper than coal, power plants switched, and that killed coal more than any stinkin' regulation. If it is now cheaper to invest right away in full automation, and fire workers, companies like Accu-Swiss would be foolish to hesitate. Doesn't matter whether any industry or company does better than any other if none of them employee anybody. Think it can't happen that fast? Look at what Accu-Swiss is doing right in this first paragraph. Experimenting with production without people.
10
Being a student of history, I can't help but point out that the last time massive tax cuts and tariffs were put in place nearly within a year of each other was in 1929 by Herbert Hoover.
The massive stock buybacks that a lot of corporations are doing reminds me also of the stock purchases made on margins, a common practice of Wall Street speculators in...1929.
This isn't going to be another recession; no, the damage done by the tariffs will be far more widespread than what most people could imagine (even the critics of this post), and the tax cuts will remove a LOT of the necessary liquid assets that the government will need when the house of cards comes crashing down.
Disclaimer: I haven't written this because I want to win an argument. There is no victory when the entire United States gets punished by the choices of a corrupt presidential administration and the administration's allies in Congress and the courts.
51
When German President Kohler made his ill-advised speech to Bundeswehr soldiers in Afghanistan "we here to protect our trade rights", he wasn't talking about selling the Afghans more BWMs, he was talking about continued access to the US market at disproportionally advantageous tariff levels. Enlightened readers, please ask yourself why President Obama gave a special exception to Porsche for his more stringent CAFE (fuel economy) standards?
I live in Germany... and I think US manufacturers would do fine under equal tariffs.
Please list all the American cars that compete with Porche or BMW for quality and cache. Europe doen't buy American cars because they don't drive gas guzzling pick-ups.
17
Even in the heartland nobody thinks this will help. When they realize it will not end well, it will end.
14
It may be too late for workers. If Accu-Swiss automates, kiss your job there bye-bye. Even when tariffs end, it won't come back, because the expensive upfront investment in automation will be a done deal.
11
The farmers realized this long ago. The car industry realizes this.
Without gerrymandering and the electoral college, Trump wouldn't have gotten the " heartland, even though Hillary made the mistake of failing to campaign at all-- or barely--in some of the decisive states and counties.
4
It’s called a war because people get hurt.
22
Just remember this when those extra Trump tax cut bucks you got on your paycheck when $10.00 for a head of lettuce.
This presidency can’t end fast enough.
36
The stunning ignorance of global economics in trump and his administration is beyond any comprehension. The U.S. will need decades to recover from the destruction caused in a short couple of years of stupidity.
39
So the “trump tax “ is starting to bite the hand that fed it. I hope your tax cut will cover your loss in income. As the economic slowdown (“trump dividend “) takes hold, remember in November who brought you your new economic status and vote accordingly. Maybe we can head the worst effects off at the pass.
21
All of these issues don't matter.
It's only about one thing.
RACE
25
Sadly true. As long as minorities are suffering more than whites, Trump’s base will be fine with all of this idiocy. They’ll be forced onto welfare and food stamps because they’ve simply hit a rough patch, unlike those Other People, who simply don’t want to do for themselves.
1
But Glorious Leader said "trade wars are good and easy to win." No doubt this is just more Fake News. Time to bury our heads back in the sand.
20
All these companies should move their operations to developing countries like India. This way, there will be less immigrants and America can have more jobs for second and third generation sons and daughters of migrants from Europe who occupied Native Indians’ lands.
14
Dear NYT editors. This is a very good article, but I would like to offer one suggestion. When interviewing any and all business owners, ask them whom they voted for. If they refuse to answer, leave them out of the piece. My guess is the majority of those interviewed here voted for Mr. Trump. If so, I have no sympathy for any of them. I'd like to know if my ire is properly directed.
64
The solution is to win vote going forward--not try to shame people who might vote differently in future.
You catch more flies with honey.....
1
Get 3 of your friends to register and vote in November
26
The owner of the largest manufacturer of steel nails was interviewed. He lamented he might have to layoff several hundred employees. Asked if he still supports Trump, he answered emphatically, YES! He agrees with Trumps tariffs and fully supports him. Even if he has to shut his plant down. Incredible! Trump could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and this buffoon would still support him.
66
Inflation is inevitable as a result of these tariffs. One wonders how much that will cost the average American not the rich guys who got a big tax break but the people who have seen little or no wage increases or those living on Social Security. I can just hear the Federal Reserve by year end talking about raising interest rates as a result of inflationary pressures.The perfect storm courtesy of trump and FOX.
27
A Trade War means that we consumers are in the front lines and must make sacrifices in order to "Win!" If every American would simply spend 25% less this year than last, the world would see that we are not dependent on its fancy "products," including things made of aluminum, steel and soy beans! If you are planning to take a vacation, rethink it. Perhaps a nice "staycation" would be more affordable. Let's tighten our belts as citizen soldiers and march joyfully toward the sound of combat!
10
So, demand is already too low, and you want to cut it 25%? Brilliant.
4
It’s this type of convoluted economic thinking that is causing the current problem. Industries depend on consumers buying things. If you aim only at foreign products, then foreigners won’t be able to buy US products.
My assumption is that eventually he'll declare victory and back off and Fox will convince all it's viewers that everything is much better. I'm not sure whether or not he needs any kind of minuscule or fake concession at all to pull this off, but if he does, he might not get it from anyone but the Chinese because they're all politicians too and need to save face.
7
I think a few well placed bribes of, say, $1 billion per would resolve this situation nicely.
3
This is how trade wars expand. At first, only a few commodities are included - here it was steel and aluminum. Then the countries most affected apply tariffs to other products and services like Kentucky whiskey and Harley Davidson motorcycles. The cycle repeats until a lot of goods are affected by tariffs. Because many manufacturers operate on single-digit margins, they’re forced to cut back, lay off workers, reduce wages - or in the case of Harley Davidson, build their products elsewhere where there are no tariffs.
And on it goes. And the irony is that trade deficits by themselves are not a bad thing for the economy.
Yes the US does face unfair trade and pricing practices from other countries. But using a trade war to address that is like using a shotgun to kill an ant.
Our president, despite all his self-aggrandizement, has little to no basic business or economic acumen. In every business school in this country trade wars started by tariffs are seen as a really bad idea. Everyone believes that except our president.
18
At the Wharton School of Economics, they teach that trade wars are "fun and easy to win!"
22
In the new Trump paradigm, it's no longer necessary to have a clear vision (or even an understanding) of an issue - be it domestic or foreign policy. All you really need is a bully pulpit and a megaphone. You make rules up as you go along and when problems ensue, you no longer need to apologize for the mistake. You simply double down, ratchet up the odds, and ultimately blame someone else for your mistakes and claim great victories for your intellect. Amazing that in our 242 year history, none of the previous 44 Presidents have thought of this strategy.
18
Breathe in deep America! You voted for this or your apathy kept you at home or you voted for him and failed to see the danger
Inhale and enjoy. We deserve this.
Hopefully we all learned our lesson
Your vote really really matters.
22
The concept of "learning one's lesson" is overestimated.
After the "catastrophic success" of the ignoramus George W. Bush, we elected someone twice as bad after a brief reprieve from the incredibly competent black guy. Americans just couldn't wait to create another disaster!
41
It’s important to focus on the bright side of this Dumpster fire ignited by the current occupant of the Oval Office (I can’t bring myself to refer to him as president): at least we avoided Hillary’s inability to handle emails properly. So as our children heat up a can of beans and roast a squirrel over the wood fire in the encampment, I hope they are thankful that we averted that disaster.
3
Trupm's business plan is to walk away from deals he does not like and find a more corrupt person to his liking. That is not possible for legitimate business or for a country. We cannot offset soy bean sales by being drug dealers.
14
Comfort zones were always overrated.
3
You need stronger headlines NYT. This meek headline does not even begin to describe what is in this story. How about a focus on JOBS and PRICES to the WORKING class? We would love to have something more attention grabbing to post on Social Media and in forwarded emails for the benefit of our Trump-supporting friends who are too lazy to look beyond a headline unless it is really powerful.
20
I wonder how many of the workers in the factories profiled in this story, stood and cheered Donald Trump during his rallies? Cheered and shouted "lock her up"? Bought a MAGA hat, voted for Trump. You get what you sow,american factories and workers.
39
For Trump’s supporters it was never about jobs
It was about status. About white America being treated with the respect it is owed. To be the ruling class regardless of merit or accomplishment.
The tariffs are a manly way of exerting strength. That they harm American workers and American consumers is not the point.
We live in Potemkinville USA.
39
You should tweet this , it’s really on point.
6
Believe it or not, a prime goal of factory owners, for years, has been lights out manufacturing! A couple employees to monitor and fix problems on completely automated operations. Looks like some dreams will come true ... SAD.
7
Yes, true. BUT let's not deceive ourselves. The rest of the world is just as eager (if not more so) to implement "lights out" manufacturing. I know, it's my business. This is not new; for decades all manufacturers -- large and small -- have been deploying highly advanced machine tools to stay competitive. The future (and present) of manufacturing employment belongs to well-trained, highly skilled technicians, not the dime-a-dozen "handle pullers" of previous generations. (BTW, Haven't we all understood this for at least two decades?)
The capability of current machine tools is staggering in terms of flexibility, production capacity, precision, and reliability. And all at extremely affordable prices, relatively speaking. It simply makes perfect business sense to run longer production hours (even at reduced rates of output for the "dark hours") if the machine tool would otherwise be sitting idle in a darkened factory waiting for the morning shift to punch back in. It makes even more sense when already tight margins are squeezed by unforeseen exogenous shocks like rapidly escalating material costs.
The big irony here? You guessed it... the majority of these machine tools and related equipment are not made in the USA. Nope! They're imported from East Asia, South Asia and Europe.
13
Many focus on Trump's background as a property developer and reality TV personality. I think this situation is better understood within the context of his casino ownership. He's playing poker with the US economy, and as he usually does in his various economic dealings he's doing it with other people's money. He thinks he controls the bigger pot and is holding the better hand and that all he needs is time. It's fine for him because he's not the one suffering the pain, and because he personally is set for life however this game turns out. Unfortunately for him he's not actually at a poker table and this is not all about him. There's less of it left, but we still have a democracy in which one guy, however right or wrong he may be, cannot continue to call all the shots if enough other people don't want him to. Tariffs? A trade war, against all and sundry? in 2018, really? For his own sake, he'd sure better be right about all this, because while he'll always have plenty of money, what he's really betting with is his political capital.
11
Keep voting Republican, American businessmen, investors, farmers, and workers and reap what you have sown. Expect it to get worse. No sympathy here. I'm not buying American any more, and much of the world is joining me. Happy Independence Day from Trump and the GOP.
32
Maybe they can all just bankrupt out and start over. And over. And over. Americans should feel perfectly comfortable with six or seven bankruptcies, just like the President of the United States. Just stiff everyone that worked for you! Move on, start again! It’s the Trump way!
12
Keep needlessly bullying Canada and the lights might be off permanently (read: Hydropower exports from Quebec).
16
You know the GOP could end all this insanity with a little thing called the 25th Amendment.
16
So much for Government by Gut Feelings. Trump's indigestion for Trade Deficits will result in Bleeding Ulcers for our economy
7
"John Ferriola, president of Nucor, the largest American steel maker, said growing demand — driven by tax cuts and a rollback in federal regulation — was primarily responsible for the price increases."
Translation: Trump handed us a monopoly and we are doing what monopolists do.
17
Plan B: Run the factory with the lights off.
We're becoming more like North Korea with each passing day of the Trump administration.
15
Wait till the Chinese level tariffs on the trumpies in the heartland- soy, pork, wheat....then the lemmings may find a change of heart as a result of the actions of a 4 Times bankrupt con man.
11
"Not" a News Flash...Republican Presidents = Major recessions or minor depressions...every time.
13
For many people at these plants, soon the only job available will be as an extra at a Trump rally.
15
What imported goods sold by the Trumps have had a tariff imposed on them by Trump??? Lead by example.
6
Trump. The guy playing checkers at a chess match.
15
Luv trump tweet-manding that OPEC lower oil prices. This guy is a laugh a minute. Maybe he should ask Vlad and the Wahabi Princeling for a break. Or invade Venezuela and keep the oil.
10
this what you get when you give power to a group of men who believe that smart people are elites and not to be trusted. An first year economics class could have predicted what Trump denies is happening.
This is an ignorant man who just cannot listen to people who have actual, factual knowledge.
I am in the steel business and am watching American Steel producers taking extra profits while American fabricators are having to lay off their workers. I do not think that anybody can objectively look at this as winning.
16
Can Wharton rescind their degree or at least open an inquiry to see if it was obtained under false pretenses?
7
Socialize losses and privatize profits, same old song for Republicans.
Welcome to the Taxpayer funded trade war!
13
This may be a stupid question, but won't all this result in reducing American employees' salaries? Since we're entering a trade war with China and considering turning off the lights in factories, wouldn't lowering salaries to meet China's salaries be the next natural progression? I mean like to what organization can Americans turn to for fair employment? There’s a big successful push to destroy all unions in America, and the worst of it is that Trump and big corporations have employees pitted against each other. Instead of organizing for their rights and improved employment benefits, non-union employees resent union employees and want to bring them down to their level. These people are the gifts that keep on giving to the big corporations.
11
Like most bullies, you harass the small kids till you get what you want. But like with all bullies these small kids don't forget, and when times get rough for the bully, he will wonder why he sees no one coming to his aid, including the other bullies that praised his actions as tough and admirable. Be ready for a rough ride folks.
7
“We’re hand-to-mouth.”
Get used to it.
5
Could Trump really be this monumentally stupid? Does he actually believe tariffs will strengthen the US?
How could anyone, even someone as resistant to logic as Trump, believe this is good policy?
How could someone mistake something so crippling to the US economy as being beneficial, let alone necessary?
Or maybe he's not as clueless as he seems.
Maybe this is his goal. Maybe he wants to weaken the US, its alliances, its partnerships and standing in the world.
Maybe he wants to further polarization in the US.
Maybe he wants to stoke racial divisions.
Maybe he wants to undermine democracy by undermining the free press.
Maybe he wants to throttle the economy by reducing immigration.
It seems to make sense that if everything he does appears to be designed to hurt the US, then that's likely his goal, doesn't it?
But if so, why?
If he's not trying to help America and only wants to cause harm, who is he working for?
Hm, seems one of the only countries he's trying to boost is Russia.
Hey America, what's the penalty for treason again?!?!
46
Agreed. I think he lost a bet to Putin and is now paying it off by ruining America. Jail is WAY too good for this clown and his accomplices.
1
Boy, that Trump guy sure understands international trade. This is only one small city in decidedly rural upstate New York (NB most of these enterprises, employing locals (coastal elite? LOL, are Canadian):
APG-Neuros
B3CG
Bombardier
Camso
Fujitsu
G.M. Collin
Imeco
Nova Bus
Rideau
Schluter Systems
Westgroupe
I invite you to look for yourselves.
http://thedevelopcorp.com/major-employers/
4
Sorry, folks. It really doesn't matter what the issue of the day is. Trump is just reveling in being the quintessential, in your face no matter who you are, A.. He is a very disturbed man.
17
Obviously, we should send him packing. But Republicans are still too giddy about finally winning back the White House, getting their way on Supreme Court picks, etc. Moral of the story: It's bigger than Trump, despite his being an A.. And a whole lot of Americans just love his sticking it to the "elites." There is an enormous amount of resentment of elites out there, obviously the liberal elites but the same for the cozy conservatives. You reap what you sow.
Making America Great Again! Yaaaah....
3
Ready. Fire. Aim.
19
Funny, but makes no difference. We are the ones in the lines of fire. And that's all "Trump" cares about.
3
All the same stupid pro-tariff remarks by Trumpers were expressed 80 years ago by supporters of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs. Prices will certainly subside in the resulting recession/depression that the simple minded sociopath in the WH is going to bring to our economy. One can safely assume that he and his fellow grifters will be well positioned to enrich themselves as their "low information" voters suffer.
28
"Run a Factory With the Lights Off" ??
No way. The coal power plants need to be going full-blast!!
Don't worry so much, our dear leader will be dictating manufacturing in full detail soon.
6
Trump is selling America’s soul to Russia and other dictatorships. These suffering businessMEN probably still are part of his cult and will never admit HE is the problem. They’re too brainwashed to even remember Obama saving the country or to realize trump is selling us all down the river for his own personal gain. He is sadistic toward all of us.
12
The whole world is asking? How dumb are Americans? Are they really that stupid, narrow-minded and conservative as to support these negative kind of policies? Completely self-destructive. Completely!
25
ummm..you just accurately described the Americans, and sadly, I live here.
11
Some Americans. Not all of us.
8
The art of the deal that Trump practices might have worked in real estate (he is good at bluffing, grandstanding, bullying), but his "art" clearly does not work in the real market place where supplies and demands are in a dynamic equilibrium. If he and his stupid advisors do not reverse course on this ridiculous trade war, the GOP will definitely lose the house, and hopefully the senate, too, in November.
11
Now, follow me on this abstract............
The wealthy individuals and corporations have always favored Republicans disproportionately.
A corporation won the right to throw campaign money at their favored leaders. It was the "Citizen's United" Supreme Court decision.
The wealthy flooded the Republican campaign coffers.
The Republicans won what is now a monopoly government.
The Republican Congress passed a Trillion dollar tax cut act and disguised it as a "Christmas Present" that went largely to the wealthy individuals and corporations.
Trump lobbied for and signed the tax cut bill.
Now the Republicans are trying to offset the 1.27 Trillion dollar deficit increase over the next ten years by instituting Tariffs on foreign goods. Those tariffs will tax the entire supply chain and consumers of our economy.
All that tariff money will go to the treasury to make up for the tax cuts to the wealthy.
In effect, the middle class, which received a meager tax cut, will now be taxed every day in every way to offset the fountain of wealth now going to the Wealthy because of the tax cuts.
Summarizing; the burden of government finance has been thrust upon the shoulders of the middle class so the rich can get wealthier and the middle class gets poorer and assumes more debt, that the wealthy will make more money from.
19
Very good analysis. Kind of Robin Hood in reverse. Take from the poor and give to the rich.
4
Yeah, this is not "abstract", we've all known this like for decades. Certainly since Reagan.
They yearn for the era of the robber baron, when there was no federal income tax. Everything since then has been an insult to their wallets.
6
I love sardines. For years, I could get a can for $1.00. Within a few weeks of the first tariffs, now, the cheap can is $1.25! I knew we were in trouble when I saw the price increase.
13
That indicates that the aluminum package was a major component of the price.
Too bad you're so far away, they're still the same price here :-)
3
As a king views the treasury as his I believe that Trump sees the US Treasury as his as well any other commerce so when the balance sheet says "they" have money that came from us to him that means "he" doesn't have the money concluding that he is losing money in trade. He doesn't like that. So reacts as only he knows how.
3
I know the following is a small factual error, but the European countries use retaletorie tariffs not just Germany.
5
If I had to guess, when the economic disaster finally hits, there will be lots of accusations that it was all President Obama's fault.
There will also be accusations that if we only saw those missing emails, the dastardly conniving of the Democrats to wreck the economy would be evident.
"Emperor Donald" never takes responsibility for any bad news.
21
Welcome to the Third World. 62 million voters asked for it and we all got it. Oops! I mean all of us except the 1%.
15
I think each time a company big or small has to change the way they do business, the NYT should start posting these stories until the banner of "Tariff Watch". I'm serious. More people need to see daily what is going on. We need to share these stories on social media so maybe the Trump supporters will inadvertently see them, because no way would Fox News air these newsworthy stories.
14
Here's a way to describe where Trump supporters will be found once Trump is finished shooting the U.S. economy in the foot:
Left behind.
7
THIS is the Art of the Deal, as negotiated by a 6-times bankrupt president and his reality TV show untrained economic advisor, Kudlow, of Dec. '07, eve of the recession “there’s no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen” infamy and ridicule.
Clinton knew tariffs would hurt more than help - but Trump lied egregiously that tariffs would save and grow manufacturing. Trump's lie was understandably more appealing - especially when augmented by Sanders' tariff support - so much so that Clinton's international free trade stance effectively barred her from campaigning in the Midwest.
To business owners and laid off/hours-curtailed workers: tell the world what Trump is doing to your livelihood right now. Your truth is what outweighs the lies, not any politician's.
17
Accu-Swiss's president and owner Mr. Sareshwala, with his strategic "Plan B", is depending upon Trump's economically ignorant tariffs only being in place for the "short term". With this Fake President motivated and guided by personal impetuosity, victimhood, unpredictability, and an unwillingness to accept any facts that differ from his severely circumscribed worldview, this businessman's reliance upon only being subject to a limited window of damage to his company and its employees would appear to be quite naive.
7
I have ZERO compassion for the owners and workers of manufacturing firms who are now or soon will be feeling the negative effects of Trump tariffs.
These folks are the very same ones who voted in this charlatan-in-chief, and had they dome even the slightest bit of research, they would have learned Trump is a terrible business-man. How else couldn his serial bankruptcy experience, including an Atlantic City casino (where the house always wins!) be explained away.
I say let the chips fall where they may. Maybe then these voters / taxpayers will begin to vote for their own interests, rather than follow the GOP / corporate tales coming out of Fox News.
13
Reports in local media that Canadians are boycotting US goods at the stores and canceling usual vacations in the US in lieu of Trumps crude comments about our PM who told him we'd reciprocate.....which we did.
21
Hi, we had 2 trips planned, one to PA and one to NY for BMW bike rallies.
We've also stopped buying US products as much as possible.
I have a few good friends in the US, they're really nice people, as are all the people we meet on our trips. In some measure I feel bad about boycotting American products however I can't reward them with my money when they treat Canada and Canadians like this.
5
Thank goodness we have a pro-business President leading us into an unnecessary recession. He is SO smart - a product of the finest schools like Wharton. And also guys like Peter Navarro - he went to Harvard so he must be really smart. And Larry Kudlow - he was on TV so he must know what he’s doing. Yes, nothing to see here as far as incompetence - “you’re doin a heck of a job brownie” comes to mind.
12
Trump does not care. He is ruled by greed and spleen.
5
This is an election year. Those hurt by Lyin' Donald's thoughtless trade war need to make their votes count by voting out the GOP.
10
The fundamentalist religion base of most of Trump’s support doesn’t care one bit about his economic incompetence. For them it’s ending Rowe v.Wade and the right to abortion uber alles, and that’s what gives him power. Watch what kind of Supreme Court nominee he chooses, for now he will have to choose: money Republican or social/cultural Republican, and hopefully His Disgrace will finally self-destruct.
8
“Tariffs are a tax, so they took that advantage right back out of there.”
"The Congress shall have Power to lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States."
2
Larry Kudlow was recently appointed by Trump as an economic advisor. As a CNBC network contributor Kudlow would forcefully say, over and over, how badly tariffs would be for the U.S. economy; that a trade war would have a devastating effect on our economy.
Then after joining the Trump “cult” he changed his tune, defending Trump tariffs. I hope after he recovers from his recent heart attack he advises Trump to modify this mess. I’m not holding my breath. It’s hard to break away from from the Trump cult.
8
Sure, they'll be some pain, but it's worth getting our budget, deficit and trade issues in order while the economy is strong instead of mid-recession.
Except Trump is getting nothing in order but his own illegal monetization of the presidency. Don't hold your breath. Republicans have blown up the economy in one way or another every time they've been in charge in your lifetime. Expecting them to fix things now with the same bankrupt policies is either wishful thinking or stupidity.
6
"At the same time, the largest companies are hoarding as much steel as they can, making it tougher for smaller businesses to find alternatives."
This sums it up for me. Workers and consumers will experience hardship while larger companies are able to eliminate the smaller ones. The rich consolidate their wealth, the poor fade away. This is Trumps vision for a Great America. Pure and simple.
12
If anyone thinks that launching a trade war when the economy is booming is smart, then there is no hope for America.
15
There is no hope for America then.
4
China is the big winner in North Korean détente. Leader Kim has been to China several times for consultations, and we should recognize that it was China's prodding, and not US sanction that changed Kim's mind and embarked him on a diplomatic opening towards the US and the West. The US would pour billions of dollars into those initiatives as part of any de-nuclearization deal, and CHina would take the funds that it had been contributing under the table and commit them to the international consortium as well. So, one big economic win for the Chinese - financial savings and international recognition for their efforts. Without annual military exercises between the US and SK armed forces, the US permanently weakens its ability to project power in Asis. The Chinese are thrilled. The US under Obama failed to check this behavior and now Trump is unlikely to create tensions with China by taking on the issue of claiming sovereignty over territory previous considered to be international waters since Trump needs Chinese cooperation to de-nuclearize North Korea and he needs them to control Kim Jong Un. If the Chinese feel that their access to US markets is going to be seriously impaired by tariff and non-tariff barriers imposed by Trump administration, the Chinese will simply send messages to Kim to behave like his old belligerent self.
6
Remember when Mayor Bloomberg said:
"Trump said he wants to run the economy like he runs his business?
God help us!"
Well now voters are about to find out what he meant.
24
"turn off the lights but keep the machines on..."
At least if the lights are already off, the last US worker in each shuttering business won't have to turn them off...
But the "turnkey" businesses will be ready for the new owners to sweep in: international oligarchs and money-launderers.
12
I hope all the business owners and employees who voted for trump remember who caused their financial hardships of lost income, bankruptcy, or unemployment. If it happens to them, then it serves them right.
17
It isn't just about our president(?). It is also about the GOP's desire to funnel as much money and power (money grab) to people like the Kochs at the cost of the other 99% of this country... of this entire world. Ryan's absolute dedication to Ayn Rand's philosophy, the Koch's desire since David Kochs run for the presidency (which failed but he instead just bought the GOP at a fire sale) to destroy our democracy under the cover of libertarianism, our president's alignment with authoritarians.
Not only will this take the people of this country to stand-up for their country, it will also take the help of those uber wealthy that are not driven towards global domination to not just save this country but to also work at making this country to what it could be. Start by looking at the truth of what this country is and what it has done in its past. History must reflect the truth for us to not continue repeating history's mistakes and tragedies. Tell me again... who discovered America.
At the core of all war was a period just prior to the war of economical collapse. That was then used as the excuse for the war...
8
Let us start a trade war and not worry about the November elections. Then in a year, fire your commerce secretary and claim a victory by pulling back all tariffs and wait for a half year and everyone is praising you. This is the classic Trump playbook.
6
I wonder why Trump is implementing tariffs in a bullying manner that virtually all the experts predict will cause price increases, hostility with our allies and major layoffs?
3
It is not surprising that John Ferriola is putting up a smokescreen about the impact of the tariffs. He as on the ill-fated Business Council and is a longtime staunch ally of the president and his talking points most likely came straight from the White House.
6
Who would have thought the economy was so complicated? it’s almost as bad as healthcare. One of the biggest problems with Trump and his base is that they turn a blind eye to anything that complicates their world view. Free trade has never been the panacea politicians on both sides of the aisle have purported it to be, but that doesn’t mean that the costs of undoing it won’t far outweigh the benefits.
8
Needed to purchase some bike tires--many are made in China. Checking online. I'm seeing see more and more items sold out.
And this is just for bike tires. Imagine obtaining other repair parts or supplies that are made overseas.
I don't get it. trump bankrupted 3 casinos before becoming president . . .and he's going to engage in a trade war because they are so easy to win.
herbert hoover, move over . . .company's coming over.
24
All part of the GOP plan. This will whipsaw markets and suppliers and everyone else involved, creating huge profit potential for those with capital and huge losses and job losses for those who don't. Just how the GOP likes to get rid of competition, not through competition, but dirty ticks and created crises (of their own making).
9
Over coffee months ago I explained to a good friend in the door hardware business how the tariffs would be the first domino to fall and what it would do to my steel fabrication business as well as the overall economy. Steel goes up, auto prices go up, people put off buying a car. Steel prices go up, high rise buildings are more expensive, people put off buying new buildings. Steel goes up, appliance prices go up, people put off appliance purchases. And all the little companies down the line, mine included, suffer along with their customers. And then we stop buying things and so on and so on. Thus begins the next recession. By the time I was done explaining, the entire coffee shop was listening...and scared.
77
Do you think The Donald and his band of "Tariff Wizards" had a Plan B for helping the smaller manufacturers, ranchers and farmers survive their trade wars? Do you think The Donald and his Wizards realize that many smaller operations had their tax cuts offset by the trade wars? Do you think The Donald and his Wizards just consider the harm done to smaller operations as necessary collateral damage in their grand scheme to make "better deals"?
Do you think the United States of America can produce all the raw materials, manufacturing, agriculture and support infrastructure to stand alone in a global economy? Do you think that we will come out of this on the other side smelling like a rose?
If you answered all of these questions yes, you're a card carrying member of the "Trump Team". Full steam ahead until we run out of steam or hit the rocks. RAW
22
The price of a barrel of Crude Oil has gone up from 27 dollars at the onset of Trump's campaign to around 75 dollars now.
With Tariffs comes a tax on the economy as a whole from consumers to retailers, distributors, manufacturing, shipping, and energy use.
Trump and the Republicans are offsetting the tax cuts ballied about on camera with these all encompassing taxiffs on the economy.
Between the price of fossil fuels and the taxing shock to the economy, I predict a near term recession.
26
Well, here we go. I have an expression which I believe serves anyone well; I do my best to follow it: "Say what you mean, and do what you say". Our president sure does not do usually do this, unless it is self serving, which he does most of the time. For Trump it is the exception to his rule, and I mean "for real", which Trump interprets many ways. This is the tip of an iceberg which is going to ruin many foreign Trade relations, which (as we all know) is nothing new. The only good coming from this is (I hope and believe), is it will come back to bite him. It's like the tale of the frog which gives a scorpion a ride across a pond. (I am not quoting anyone)The frog tells the scorpion "I will be happy to give you a ride, but i am afraid you will sting me, and I will drown", which the scorpion responds, "if I sting you, I will drown as well". So the frog gives him a ride on his back, and halfway across, the scorpion stings him. The frog says"now we will both die; why did you do this?" to which the scorpion replies "I couldn't help it, as this is in my nature". I know I am not precise, but I got both things across: Trump usually does not do what he says, unless it is typically bad for most people. The other point is obvious. He does this because it is in his nature.
16
I don't understand why domestically produced steel prices have gone up 15-25%.
Is this sheer profit taking? Are there no regulations about that? Oh...
10
It is called supply and demand. Any time demand increases and supply doesn’t keep up, prices will go up.
3
I do understand that. This is a windfall for domestic producers. Was that part of the plan? Did those producers 'have a word' with someone?
That is precisely one of the goals of tariffs. They raise the floor price of cheaper foreign imports, to give cover to domestic suppliers to raise their prices, thereby making a higher level of domestic supply viable. The domestic suppliers can't compete at the lower prices.
I worked in the aerospace and auto manufacturing industry as a machinist in my younger days. The holy grail of manufacturing, from the factory owner's perspective, is "lights out manufacturing". In that scenario, the machines essentially run themselves non-stop and no human monitoring is essentially needed. Therefore, since no humans are on the shop floor, the lights on the ceiling can be shut off to save even more money, thus the moniker "lights out". It was interesting to read the recent NYTimes article on Tesla manufacturing which referred to a highly respected consultant on auto factories, who stated that the most productive actually have a high degree of skilled human labor. That makes sense in the complex business of auto manufacturing, but for the simple manufacturing of nuts and bolts in America, "lights out manufacturing" is what factory owners seek. In factories outside of complex manufacturing, it is possible the tariffs could lead to a greater utilization of non-human factors and lead to layoffs as the holy grail of "lights out manufacturing" is more earnestly and enthusiastically sought by factory owners.
10
Rest assured, the Trump Family is making a boatload of Money from this Both over AND under the table. Seriously.
66
In all seriousness this analysis would be great to see.
3
Mr. Sareshwala is a really smart guy. You did a great service writing this article to help all manufacturing.
Trump is effectively instituting taxes on goods made by the American companies that moved their manufacturing out of the country for the last few decades. Not only is he taxing consumers with the "Taxiffs", but he is really penalizing everybody in the economy.
18
This will all work out to Trump's advantage...( like every other issue ) ..
It will be better for all in the USA and the world.
Just watch it happen.
Its been fun.
This is what he meant about winning.
4
You mean like North Korea continuing to expand its nuclear facilities despite the "deal"? Like his campaign manager sitting in prison? Like his personal lawyer about to be indicted and potentially testify against him? Like the bond yield curve flattening? Like the GINI coefficient continuing to rise? Like life expectancy in the US continuing to nosedive. You mean all that winning?
21
Melanie, Anyone can pick and choose problems or sore spots to argue any case.
In general it's been good.
Can you share a concise explanation of how this will work?
1
If you were Vladimir Putin and you wanted to do maximum damage to American manufacturing, you couldn’t do much better than Trump’s tariffs. Coincidence? I don’t think so. Trump’s upcoming meeting with Putin is just his check-in with the boss.
91
Well, yes, and now let's look at all the front page articles about American companies and workers that suffer because of unfair foreign competition.
Oh, wait -- I forgot that the Times no longer does the balanced reporting thing.
4
@Josh, That's "foreign" competitors hurting American companies and workers. That's not news. The fact that our own government's policies are hurting American companies and workers, that's news.
32
examples please. If you can find any written by a reliable news source.
4
Josh:
Why don't you post a few links to the kind of articles you are describing? That should be EASY, right?
4
What "Emperor Donald" does not understand is that if a business relationship is ruptured, and a different rlationship is initaiated, the parties to the original relationship may never put that back in place. In the markets thaht he is accustomed to, there are alwys additional "suckers." Repeat business is not a high priority to him.
"Emperor Donald" does not think "long term."
Business that goes elsewhere may never come back. The farmers who grow soybeans and corn, and those that raise pigs, may find themselves with a diminished export market share, both in the short term and the long term.
44
Very true for small businesses.
14
The stable genius will solve all the problems after his one on one with his buddy Vlad. Oops make that Vlad and one interpreter provided by the Russians. Does anyone know what chapter in Art of the Deal is this suggested?
19
You know trade wars are easy.
Chancellor Trump told me so.
That's because sorghum is only available from US farmers.
Soybeans can only be purchased from American farmers.
American dead pigs are the best dead pigs in the world.
Trade wars are EASY!!!
What a great excuse for a HUGE military parade!
20
Meanwhile, them Brazilian and Argentinian farmers are smiling all the way to the bank.
2
Backup plans? Trump doesn't want them to have backup plans. He wants them to do as they're told and suffer; otherwise he will tax them to oblivion - in true Trump American-style.
Just curious, does he have a plan to short the stock market to offset his family's massive debts? There would seem to be no other purpose to this strategy - bar blind stupidity.
43
I agree that he is doing all of this to play the market.
25
You can't plan for stupid.
29
When managing his so called business- mostly rackets- Trump always had a Plan B. When his misguided hubris lead to business failures, which was almost all his business too numerous to list here, Trump’s Plan B was always bullying, betrayal and bankruptcies. All these plans starting with Bs have worked very well for him. As a fake business man of ill repute, he has no way to understand what an honest and effective plan B is and how real businessmen and women cannot walk away from their businesses and leave customers, employees and investors hanging.
22
It is sad to watch President Trump dismantle America both here and our standing abroad. It sickens me that the Congressional GOP will not try and stop any of this.
I feel that starting bad blood between our allies such as Canada and Germany is disastrous in terms of foreign policy.
Working on securing friendly relations with North Korea and Russian is treasonous. For these two goals I feel he needs to be held in check.
I remember as a high school student being afraid of a nuclear war with Russia, a country that had Putin as head of the KGB. How can we now think that he has changed and wants a good relationship with the United States? How can we have a President who thinks this is even possible.
I realize that many or the people that support Trump are people that do not have a sense of how the United States government is intended to function under the Constitution they say they hold so dearly, or they are people that do not have a sense of our country's history.
It is hard to believe this is happening and it isn't just another bad Trump reality show.
29
When one person decides that it is simple to upset the apple cart of world trade and just as simple to put it back together again, it is bound to unleash chaos and a train wreck. Trump supporters believe the simplistic plans of their hero, that he could wave a hand and magically everything in our interdependentworld economy would become fairer and march to the beat of our drum.
Trump ignores the fact that our world capitalist economy has always been based on predatory practices where the profit based corporations will take advantage of every loop hole to squeeze out a dime. It is these corporations that truly are the power in this world. When tariffs are raised in one place leading to more tariffs and retaliation those corporations caught in the tariff war will seek calmer places to exploit. In the end it will be the consumer who suffers in the battling countries as prices spiral with fears and uncertainties fueling it.
Perhaps Trump thinks he can correct everything all by himself as if he were a world unto himself,, but when you think only in simplistic terms you should not be surprised when you only create a mess that all the king's horses can not put together again.
20
The sad part about this is the trump supporters are going to try to blame China when the prices start to go up in Walmart. It is time for all you to wake up! I am sure most of them have yet to realize that when they file their taxes next year they will not be able to include deducting your house or student loan interest. Oh and the rise and bonus is also going to taxed. I look for the impeachment t-shirts to sell out in about another month or so.
22
Totally agree on your point of the Walmart prices; until T supporters start feeling the affects in their day-day pockets, maybe, just maybe they will wake up. They just don't realize that the $4-$5 t-shirts at Walmart will start to increase among so many other items.
14
This is an instance where reality-based workers and companies are bumping up against Trump supporters who are faith-based. I look forward to hearing how the latter see the situation of workers and companies. Is it part of God's plan?
18
Larger companies are hoarding materials. This could very well be the plan to put the small guys out of business. The bigger conglomerates can then easily swallow them up. ConAgra did it.
15
My plan B is to stop buying stuff until demand crashes and prices deflate.
7
Trump is following his usual playbook beginning with intimidation (bluster), followed by litigation and ending in bankruptcy.
20
Thank you for quoting more people who likely voted for Trump and are now feeling the effects of their decisions. We told you so, but you didn't believe us "liberal elites."
18
I'd like to know what his and the GOPs stock holdings are in - bet you bottom dollar it's in Chinese companies where they will make a bundle.
Sorry Red State workers, you've been conned!
23
Well, what do you expect when you vote for a Russian Asset.
27
What could possibly go Wrong ??? The " businessman " Presidential Apprentice. Thanks, GOP.
13
John Ferriola, president of Nucor, the largest American steel maker, said growing demand — driven by tax cuts and a rollback in federal regulation — was primarily responsible for the price increases.
“Tariffs will result in some long-term price increases as excess, artificially low-cost foreign material is taken out of the market,” he said, “but as steel buyers adjust to new supply chains and new domestic production comes online, we expect prices will normalize.”
Ha ha.
Well of course he would say that. Truth is, those prices will not normalize. Just like every other industry, when companies are given a captive, desperate customer base they can't resist the temptation to raise profits. In fact, since the company must make decisions that benefit shareholders above all else, it is laughable to imagine this wont be taken advantage of to the fullest.
Trump's such a blundering idiot.
28
Oh, stop the whining! Trade wars are easy to win. Of course, you can't fight a war without getting soldiers killed, so why don't you just shut up and die like a true patriot!
Or, fire those workers, mothball your plant and reopen it again after I'm gone. That's what I would do, if I were you. But you can't do that, that would be unpatriotic. Not because of the firing, that's my favorite line after all, but because it makes me look bad.
Disrespectfully,
Donnie the Trumpster
a.k.a. El Presidente
a.k.a. Cadet Bone Spur
21
This is what happens when you elect a clueless con man who is such a terrible businessman he bankrupted a casino and if not for the protection of the bankruptcy laws, he'd be a homeless man riding the 6 train all day begging for nickles.
43
Accu-Swiss of Oakdale, CA., with Sohel Sareshwala, the company’s owner and president.
Now THIS is today's America. Ozzie and Harriet have left the building.
6
Friends with Russia and North Korea, while dissing Canada?
Someone on the trump side please tell us your endgame, thanks.
Dems need to take the house to put a check on this, thanks.
10
Not to worry. By the end of next week we will be getting our underwear from North Korea and upgrading our Patriot missiles with Russia's S-400 system.
There's a special place in heaven for Vlad and Kim.
7
What's jaw dropping to me (but shouldn't be anymore, after realizing that Trump's base is a cult) is that every one -- and I mean EVERY one -- of the many people I've heard interviewed and who are being economically hurt by Trump's idiocy -- factory worker, rancher, farmers, even a coal mine owner at risk of losing everything -- support him more than ever. They are the living definition of either insanity, stupidity, or brainwashing.
89
"They are the living definition of either insanity, stupidity, or brainwashing." -- Or all three combined.
3
I'm going to say, "all three" for your definition.
The shoe fits and they are wearing it.
4
Republicans, this is your mess. What does your party stand for again? Please fix this. Democrats are powerless right now.
15
The GOP-led Congress could put a stop to these trade wars started by Trump. Presidents have not always had such power.
Like foreign relations, don't they know Trump is a beginning checker player in an advanced chess match?
7
Demand = higher prices. Higher prices = less jobs. Tariff = tax = higher prices = retaliation = less exports = less jobs. Tax = bad. Bad = good.
5
If this is what Trump, his supporters, and the Republican Congress want, then we know it is a plan directly from God and no one need worry. All will work out just fine.
8
Trump supporters seem to be pretty hardened in their confidence in the President. They will figure out a way to blame everyone else except Trump for the trade mess.
21
Looks like Trump’s tariffs will make more companies consider robots since machines can be programmed to run without people around. This may accelerate permanent job loss to automation. Sad.
21
Trump does not care about Americas or American jobs. He understands he has a short window to enrich himself and those close to him. It's like the game show Supermarket Sweep, grab and dash! Decisions are made based on what will benefit the Trump family financially. That's all there is to this. Don't make it more complicated. The hogs are running wild in the world's grain bins. They will do so until they eat themselves to death, get voted out or impeached. Who would have ever thought, hard working country people would be cheering for the fox in the henhouse!
38
The destructive nature of Donald Trump has been on display for as long as he has been in the public eye. That he has reached the pinnacle of power as POTUS will be recognized by historians present and future as deeply tragic for the American people.
The central question in all of this, for me at least, is what is the attraction to him? To say his supporters are all rascist xenophopes who do not care about what they stand to lose as he gives voice to their obsessions and acts on their deep hatred of liberal policies seems too easy. I submit that some of it is that, but the larger answer involves simple minded folks who in former days would be lined up to put out their hard earned cash for Dr Trump’s Magic Elixir, Guaranteed to Make America Great Again.
(Use regularly until you get too tired of winning).
21
Economic disaster appears, and many are most likely trying to plan for a tsunami
7
I hope everyone will connect this avoidable disaster to its maker and vote out Trump and his Republican enablers. It’s interesing how quiet these “pro-business” representatives have been. How far will they let the destruction go?
23
Plan B should be replacing the president and congressional enablers.
22
I am beginning to think that Wharton is not the good a school. Trump went there and they gave him a degree.
19
I've read that he didn't actually get into Wharton.
Let's demand to see his grades, just like he demanded from Obama.
And let's see those tax returns too.
19
@Keevin: He only attended Wharton for the last 2 years of his college "career". He left with a B.A., not the much touted MBA! Imagine the damage he could do if he had been more educated!
11
@L: He was initially refused acceptance to Wharton, and had to spend his first 2 years of college at Fordham University. After that, with a generous donation, from his father Fred, he was admitted to Wharton, where he graduated with a B.A. No post-graduate degree! His classmates don't seem to remember his ever being there.......the "invisible man."
1
What a perfect metaphor for this administration: running things with the lights off.
79
Very well put!
11
What has convinced so many people that implementing tariffs to protect American jobs is prima facie a bad idea? I mean besides the fact the Trump proposed it, which alone, automatically means it must be resisted.
Oh, wait, I think I know.
The "experts" say tarriffs are bad. The patron saints of middle class and working class Americans universally hate the idea: The US Chamber of Commerce, The Club for Growth, The Business Roundtable. Those experts are all opposed to tariffs. And don't forget the CEO's of America's biggest corporations, they all despise tariffs, too.
This can only mean one thing. Being a tariff-hater is a virtuous thing because people like these are caring individuals, dedicated to the common good of the country.
NYT, June 4 - "The conservative Koch political network said on Monday that it would begin a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign to promote free trade, sharpening a disagreement with President Trump over tariffs..."
Gee, who knew that opposing tariffs would bring you a mind-meld with the Koch brothers.
Engage in a moment of reflection and contemplate how your Trump-animus got you on the same side of an issue as the .1 percenters. Either that or present evidence that in their heart of hearts that all those plutocrats really want what is best for the well-being and prosperity of the American working class and middle class. Because, of course, you know they do.
2
Here's the thing. The fact that someone has correctly identified a problem does not mean that they have also correctly identified the solution. Trump's solution to whatever trade imbalances he might be concerned about (and there are multiple reasons to think that they are not the concern that he makes them) does not mean that bullying our allies and opponents equally and taking a hammer to everything around him is the best strategy for addressing it. These tariffs are clearly not thought through, and directly and via retaliatory tariffs are going to damage our economy. This is particularly true of Trump country. I don't really feel sorry for these people, they voted for him to blow everything up, but somehow thought that everything wouldn't include them.
203
RE: "implementing tariffs to protect American jobs is prima facie a bad idea? I"
Because we are already seeing where American jobs aren't being protected and are actually in danger of being lost. That's not simply that Trump proposed it, that is what is happening as a result.
12
History is not on the side of DJT and tariffs. I'll put my money on history before I support DJT. Tariffs will do short term damage as well as long term damage. Even those who are profiting in the short terms from large price increases will be hurt once demand drops due to the overall higher prices and companies look for alternative materials, other countries not included in the tariffs, the gray market for materials, etc. Tariff simply don't work as intended.
10
trump will find Putin to be partialy satisfied with trump's performance when trump recieves his new orders from Putin.
17
Perfect example of a pyrrhic victory. We will all be so proud we stood up as thousands of business and jobs are hit and even lost.
But the real hit comes over the years going forward as no nation on Earth trusts the US to honor its agreements or treaties, thus working dilligently to circumvent us. The bully gets his way but ultimately gets taken down.
Even as the biggest economy, we are fools to think we can rule the world as we did in previous generations.
Hand in hand, comes the weakening of NATO and all its repercussions. Putin is dancing himself silly even before the outrageous "summit" with Don speaking with him alone.,,oh to be a fly on the wall.
20
The U.S. will get through this, as will all nations that retaliate with tariffs in turn. There is going to be a lot of needless pain to go all around. (especially to all that voted for this administration)
My only wish, is for all of those voters to break free from their Stockholm syndrome and realize just how much they continue to vote against themselves.
15
Perhaps these news stories should include asking the business owners and employees of the respective businesses if they voted for Trump. Seems like an obvious question.
14
I suspect they all still think he is going to pull a rabbit out of a hat and save the world. No on can do it better than trump.
5
This is what happens when you have a president who doesn't really understand how businesses work, or manufacturing or farming or trade or immigration works or foreign relations work or climate or democracy - how anything works - and he doesn't want to know. All he knows is what HE wants and he wants it NOW!
A 2-year-old is running the country.
30
What is omitted from this discussion is the shuttered factory towns throughout the United States,the bankrupting of many manufacturers, the tens of thousands of Americans who lost their jobs, and those overseas who are being paid a pittance, in exchange for working under horrific and dangerous conditions , that resulted from the lack of tariffs , due to many factory owners moving their factories overseas, in order to profit by using cheap slave labor.
I have firsthand knowledge of this as the daughter, granddaughter and great-granddaughter of textile manufactures who owned a factory in Fall River ,MA, and who employed hundreds of well paid union workers, who had full benefits , pensions, and highly specialized skills . Now, those workers are either unemployed ,or working at stores like Walmart, which have benefitted at the cost of U.S workers. and from slave labor and child labor.
My brother refused to manufacture overseas, using cheap labor, as most others had done. He stopped paying himself a salary long before closing the factory, which he kept open as long as possible, while operating at a loss, in order to keep those union workers employed. He felt a moral obligation to them.
Moral convictions don't pay the mortgage, or pay health insurance premiums.The workers still had health insurance, while my brother could not afford it for himself. Finally , he was forced to close his factory,
to fire those union workers, his office staff, then himself.
12
Wholesale roundup of all undocumented workers or possibly undocumented workers can put businesses out of business. A tax cut is no good if you don’t have a business due to tariffs or anti-Hispanic hysteria.
5
It's beyond tiring to constantly hear people claim that enforcing immigration and labor laws is "anti-Hispanic". Businesses hire illegal aliens because they can take advantage of them. The end result is wage suppression for Americans, particularly those most vulnerable.
We should no more bemoan the closing of businesses that violate labor and immigration laws than we would child sex trafficking businesses. Both are illegal and for good reason.
It's interesting that when people have no valid argument they hurl epithets like "anti-hispanic" or "xxx-aphobe" or some ethnic slur...
Finally, there are legal ways to enter the country. Hispanics included
Republican economic policies created the environment in which your family factory could not function. Keep voting GOP and watch it change - NOT.
4
The worst part is when the economy crashes the small businesses like the ones featured here will go down, whereas the big companies will again be bailed out by the government, goodbye small business. Make Big Corporations Greater Again.
7
Well, the goal is to get steel and aluminum prices to rise. Because China was dumping prices were artificially low. The users of steel and aluminum should prepare for this because if it works, it's the new - and preferred - normal.
They had years of undue benefit at the expense of their steel / aluminum manufacturing brethren. Now it's time to equalize. Raise prices. This is not a problem but the benefit being pursued.
1
Trump has shown that he's not a business man, which explains his six bankruptcies.
However since the country's going to be looking at the economy, he's hoping that we won't see his real agenda of coming under Putin's realm.
8
Trump is playing international trade jenga with the American economy. This is not going to turn out well.
15
There's no evidence that the Russian-Republican Trumpers will ever admit the damage they've brought to our country, but sadly there's also no evidence in this reporting that Ms. Cohen asked these people whether they supported Mr. Trump and, if they did, do they now regret it.
They won't ever vote democratic, so we can only hope they don't vote at all in November.
Everyone else - VOTE!
34
Thus far, Donald Trump hasn't had to deal with a major disaster as his predecessor did. Other than Puerto Rico (which he knew many Americans would ignore) he's had a free ride, with a rising economy, which was pretty much a result of Obama's policy decisions over eight years.
This will be different. When the Wall Street ride is over, he will learn what, "It's the economy, stupid" really means. He will, of course, blame it on everyone else, but it will be clear that these insane tariffs were the straw that sent the world into another recession tailspin. It's just a matter of time....
31
If the owners and managers quoted in this article who voted for Trump could only grasp the irony of their complaints. Karm is painful but educational. Please skip the 2020 election as penance and try again in 2024.
10
Who will be the first to openly break ranks with the president they supported in 2016? Which company or CEO or owner will have the courage to stand up and admit they voted the wrong way? As companies subject to retaliatory tariffs, or those who depend on imports whose cost is now going up due to Trump's tariffs, begin to lay off their employees, reduce their margins, lower their forecasts, consider relocating their operations to a country not involved in a trade war, or in the worst cases face suspension or termination of operation, those who voted for Trump or who have voiced their support for him will be forced to confront themselves. As the stock market begins to drop in response to the contracting domestic economy and people dependent upon their retirement funds realize they must immediately slash their living expenses, those who voted for Trump or who have vocally supported him will now have to face the consequences of their decisions. And as the administration does everything within its power to cut benefits to the unemployed, the pain will become real.
13
Americans who were too lazy to bother reading about the reality of Trump's businesses and bankruptcies while he was running for office, will be in the same boat as those of us who did and voted for Clinton.
I doubt if Trump mucking about the world with his arbitrary tariffs and creating havoc by destroying long term partnerships with our allies... comes as much of a surprise to his dedicated followers. They will treat cause and effect of his actions with the same skepticism that they treated the many exposes on Trump's limited business experience. They won't bother connecting the dots.
Had Trump supporters been on the Titanic, they wouldn't have blamed Captain Edward John for the disaster; instead they would've put together a special Congressional committee to investigate rumors that the Democrats had hired a tugboat to drag the iceberg into the path of the ship. Much like Benghazi.
But rest assured that when this economy does fail, the Republicans will be shoving their way into the lifeboats...
58
The Federal Reserve has been trying to increase inflation for years. Taxes on imports are another way to increase inflation. And just like raising interests rates, this is another way to slow down the economy.
3
If it's not a trade war or actual military conflict, it's ideological warfare. Trump is turning out to be even more bellicose than I would have believed. He's not content unless he's mired in confrontation of one form or another, either with allies or with adversaries. Clearly he missed his calling; he should have been a professional wrestler.
20
But what ideology is at stake with Trump? He has supported dictators and autocrats, so is that the ideology you claim is behind him? That he is a totalitarian against liberal democracies--you know the kind of countries Putin hates and wants to see destroyed?
As for professional wrestling--isn't that another con job, with the wrestlers acting parts and not really wrestling?
2
Some people require enemies to define themselves. Trump is one of them.
3
"We'll make them more miserable than we are" is the only plan Trump has ever had. It's not good economics. Unfortunately it's something the Trump base relishes. If they can't attain the success they believe they deserve then, by golly, they'll make sure no one else does either.
56
Economics since Adam Smith have written that free and unencumbered trade optimize economic growth. Our problem is that the fruits of that growth are not shared equitably. Great gains for workers in developing countries, phenomenal wealth for the few moguls who own the means of production, nothing other than lower prices for tee shirts for the workers in developed countries - the ones who elected DJT. The sad thing is that rolling back globalism will never make the American economy and society what it used to be. That will take corrections to income and wealth inequality that are anathema to political donors.
30
I hope that Wharton isn't teaching this sort of thing in their undergraduate economics classes anymore. I wonder how they feel about their famous Alumni?
43
Right now Trump is listed as a distinguished grad on their website, but more than 3,000 of the school’s current students, graduates, and staff members have signed an open letter saying he does not represent that values taught there.
6
Welcome to the Trump administration's version of trade negotiation. It's called the hammer and stick. First you smash all existing relationships claiming they add no value to the U.S. economy. Please disregard the 10 year plus improving nature of the nation's economic picture. Second you threaten even your closest allies with tariffs and penalties that will send prices higher here at home, drive more industries to move operations outside the U.S. and stimulate new agreements among other countries replacing U.S. goods and services. Three old, completely out of touch and confused codgers making decisions that impact our collective economic fortunes. Please, someone take the keys from them and let someone else drive.
81
Anyone who takes the tariffs casually or has a wait and see attitude does not understand economics.Price raising and shortages happen quickly.Economic disaster rolls in like a tsunami crashing an economy.Surely most of you remember October 2008 when suddenly banks could no longer function without a huge infusion from the treasury.Economic dislocations become full blown recessions in no time at all.There is no time at the last hour to alter policy.This trade war better stop before Trump leads us into the third Great Recession .Hoover # 1,Bush#2 and Trump#3.
21
I just heard from one small business manufacturing client this morning that metal hoarding by large, deep-pocket users is already a problem. He says there's only so long, especially in the face of uncertainty, they can resist wholesale and retail price increases. If sales volume drops, job cuts will follow. Combined with the looming filing nightmare of 50 state Internet sales tax collection, small businesses are being hit hard. Conservatives pretend to be on the side of small business, but their actions speak louder.
42
I hope the anti-trade Bernie Sanders voters are paying attention. We Democrats need to be observing and taking notes. If we’re going to take an anti-trade position, if we’re going to speak against NAFTA and the TPP and similar trade agreements, we better have a plan that would address these consequences. I don’t think we do right now.
23
One of the reasons Hillary Clinton beat both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump in actual votes by registered US voters by a very large margin.
20
Sorry Joshua - But I distinctly remember Clinton opportunistically reversing herself and coming out AGAINST the TPP as she scrambled against Sanders halfway through the primary. Her supporters have no high ground to claim on this issue. Example #158 of why so many voters did not trust her.
Tariffs create winners and losers but the fact remains that most everything will be more expensive. Oh, by the way the winners are not giving their employees a raise.
129
One prediction from his campaign is coming true: I am definitely sick of all this "winning."
117
Did Trump and his "experts" realize there is a cascading affect in any supply train interruptions or costs?
But, I suppose Trump knows more than learned experts in global supply chain management, the leaders of manufacturing firms and ultimately the job holders and consumers.
But, we are winning-something. I just can't put my finger on it.
When the job losses become more apparent then maybe those who lost their jobs can go wash coal to make it clean to burn-yes, another Trump belief.
43
Who knew economics could be this difficult?
8
Trump is a 19th (or 18th) century economist. His stance re Micron will hurt everyone - who does he think supplies components to Apple, etc. and where do you think those components are made? We live in a global economy, like it or not, with just-in-time supply chains and manufacturing processes. The workers will end up taking the brunt of this as the disruptions in productivity take place. Way to go, Donald! You live in a real estate world where you have BK as an option and you can land-bank distressed properties - you have no experience with a real-world economy nor do the Munchkins.
23
You're comment is an insult to 18th and 19th century economists.
4
One must remember that in the 1920's many fortunes were lost, but many more were found. Trump holds the keys to this kingdom, and is willing to do anything to create his legacy. His actions will ensure that he is as powerful as Carnegie or Rockefeller as he and his friends scramble to grab all the wealth in the world. Talk about "insider trading." This make that look like child's play.
45
Insider trading is a very good way of putting it, Mr. Stevens.
"as powerful as Carnegie or Rockefeller " he doesn't have the brains for it. They made money, he just knows how to lose it, and at an astonishing rate. Who the heck does he think is going to bail this country out when we go bankrupt - AHH, the penny just dropped - RUSSIA that's who.
3
Our economy is shot through and through with supply chains and distribution chains of such complexity that even the participants don't know the effect of any one of these tariffs, much less all of the measures and counter measures.
It's very telling that the most detailed plan of Accu-Swiss includes disregarding costs. Treading water and hoping that a boat happens by is a plan too. Thanks, Trump, for dumping us all overboard and telling us we're on our own.
49
But Trump's in a Lifeboat Built For One (well, maybe there's room for his Criminal Daughter) so he's all set and doesn't give a hoot about any one of the rest of us. (That includes Jared, Eric and Donny, Jr.).
2
American metal producers were raising prices long before the tariffs were put in place... without any significant increase in demand .. the start of tariffs accelerated the increases -- eventually to a dizzying weekly basis ... American producers "presently" do not have the capacity
to satisfy any or all the void- shortages resultant of tariffs .
To do so -- would require expansion of existing mills and getting new plants up and on line .. combine this with the
"in the wind" trend of European firms bringing production to the US .... and in that we have a more welcome future picture...
1
The piece concedes there were price increases, however, the piece does indicate the increases have, well, increased due to low supply.
We, the consumer, will feel the effects in the end.
13
I'm guessing that Euro countries will reconsider moving production to the US given Trump's bellicosity towards them.
3
Why can't congress do anything to stop these tariffs?
The president wasn't meant to be a king The Framers would be appalled by this supine Republican majority.
105
There's the trick. The President has claimed that all of the tariffs are for "national security" purposes. That means he can impose them without Congressional approval or input. So, even *if* the GOP-led Congress wanted to do something (which seems doubtful), they have effectively been rendered powerless.
6
C.Gregory,
I forgot that Trump used national security as an excuse for these tariffs.
But Canada and our allies aren't a threat to our national security. That excuse rings hollow and congress should demand that Trump show how exactly, national security is affected on a case by case basis.
14
Because the Republican party except for a few, have no spine. They are afraid of Trump. They are watching us go down the drain.
2
How many people would have operations that might save their lives if they based the decision to or not on how much pain they would inevitably experience in post-op? Why does it feel like that’s all I ever read about. Likewise with immigration control. Where is the morphine when we need it so we can just move on?
1
John Doe - How many sane people would have a knee or hip replacement if there weren't anything wrong with their knee or hip? Trump is solving largely non-existant problems with both trade and immigration control. And making adversaries out of major trading partners. Of course there were creaks and twinges, but it's like prescribing amputation instead of aspirin for those aches and pains.
42
In an age where the countries of the world are ever so inter-dependent for their growth and prosperity, America First is the wrong policy.
The goal should be the Whole World First.
America can not prosper at the expense of China, Canada, Europe, and Asia. It is time to cooperate with others because there is plenty for every country to prosper.
71
Cooperate with others is an oxymoron to him, his administration and the GOP.
3
This could have been done the right way; joining with our allies to force China to play by the rules, but no...we are going down a far bumpier path.
To those people that were against T.P.P., how is this shambolic mess any better? At least with T.P.P. the winners and losers were acknowledged. Under Trump’s “trade policy” it’s a complete mystery written by malevolent amateurs.
52
Trump was supposed to do bilateral agreements instead of TPP and Nafta. Has even a single one been signed since Putin stole the election for him? Nope.
4
German cars are the next target and if Trump moves ahead with his threats there will be thousands of stateside jobs lost. And German manufacturers are already prepared with contingency plans around the globe to protect their market and remain in the black.
“Tarriffs” is just a nice word for taxes and Trump is determined to destroy the Obama recovery and lead America into a recession.
67
Using antiquated 1950's norms and 1920's economics, Trump is out to ruin American business just like he's broken America's government. It will take decades to recover from his ego-driven mismanagement.
101
So why aren't every single one of these businesses who are going to be hurt big time by these ridiculous tariffs lobbying their congressmen and women in DC to do something? And BTW, where are the representatives and senators? Silent and complicit as usual.
177
Let's see how many of them will return to their home state to face the music. I bet town-hall meetings will be cancelled, and they will be in hiding.
14
My understanding is that business leaders tried to meet with Trump before the tariffs were initiated. He refused to see them.
More info please? A link or two?
" Vaughn Manufacturing’s backlog has dwindled..."
In a really bigly astonishing (read: completely unsurprising) turn of events, a Republican executive branch seems to be setting us up for economic disaster.
From these absurd tariffs turning the screws on American manufacturers, to retaliatory tariffs smashing farmers and iconic industries, to deregulation of the financial sector, to promoting coal at the expense of renewables, to the disgusting tax cuts and huge budget deficit, to ignoring massive consumer and student loan debt, to crippling the ACA in order to bloat insurers, we are being teed up for a world of pain.
As someone with kids who is purchasing a home, I am on eggshells every day this imbecilic presidency continues.
Ah well, I guess we'll have to crash again, even harder than the Great Recession, until the Republican "base" feels enough pain to vote in a new FDR.
59
Hey, folks, you voted him Prom King in ‘16...
Now enjoy the boogaloo with your sweetie...!
59
Let's not forget, Trump likes chaos. Which applies to everything he touches.
Everyone needs to watch Ken Burns' "The Civil War" and become heartened by the sacrifices made then, only so that we can now have this. It's hard not to be despairing.
Good luck, America.
18
Trump acts, talks, and tweets as if he should be above the law... the spineless Republican wretches in Congress, the supposedly "co-equal branch of government" have abdicated any effort towards taking responsibility, or oversight for Trump, instead letting him escalate his Trump Tariffs spat. Now the real impacts are starting to be seen. "Trade wars are easy to win"? Let's ask some of these business owners scrambling to find materials that have jumped 15% or more in a few days, and being forced to lay off highly skilled employees. Let's ask them if "Trade wars are easy to win." Trump can try to ignore the Constitution and laws of the United States, and Congressional Republicans may let him get away with that, but Trump can't escape the Law of Unintended Consequences. Of course, given how many of Trump's actions seem more to favor Russia and overseas autocrats while weakening the United States globally, maybe these consequences of Trump's actions are not so 'unintended' after all. He sure seems to be doing his best to scuttle the US economy.
50
In 1973 Nixon put an end to Bretton Woods and the world's largest economy was free to ravage the world.
As the snail now withdraws into its shell it may very well thrive. I am Canadian and I welcome the USA's isolationist policy. The short term promises a great deal of pain but since Russia is fully committed to USA conservative governance the alliance of Putin and Trump gives us an understanding of the danger of plutocracies and a reason to work together to keep alive liberal democracy.
Our Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland understands Russia's plutocracy and I am sure she recognizes its cote in American conservatism. In 2014 Freeland an economic journalist whose expertise was Russia wrote Plutocracy: The Rise of the Global Super-Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else.
Today's battle is between democracy and oligarchy and I am afraid the USA has chosen the plutocratic side.
37
To Donnie's 60 million+ voters:
You wanted Obamacare repeal, tax cuts for the rich, unregulated pollution, and an unfettered Wall Street. You all believed his lies and tweets, this catastrophe is not only Donnie's fault. It’s yours, too. So all of you deal with the consequences now. I really don't feel sorry.
170
Voters wanted change, they didn't get it with Obama, and Hillary offered the status quo = no change, so who was left? The Dems are all upset, so Trump voters, (quite wrongly), figure that Trump must be doing something good. The establishment is the Republicans AND the Democrats. The Democrats are basically Republicans, who are pro choice. They have no ideas other then they are "not Trump." But, what are they for? The minimum wage adjusted for inflation from thirty years ago would be $19.00 an hour! Healthcare is a drag on the economy, Medicare for all. Free college tuition, lower defense spending!
This is a problem when you have a President who thinks he is a stable Genius and knows best when actually he knows nothing,
The only silver lining is that he is destroying his base.
21
I hope/wish you were right about his base. I really do think they'd follow him off a cliff (as they seem to be doing now).
3
NYT will never, never, find any positives in any Trump's action, be it trade, immigration, you name it. The unfair and biased reporting prevails, and will stay on as long as Trump is calling shots. Absurdly, maybe just because of this type of reporting and apparently hostile attitude, he may be calling shots a lot longer ...
1
That's because there's never been anything positive in any of trump's actions.
19
We're waiting. Please point out the 'positives'....
Well, tell us some of those "positives", please. Because they don't seem to be there.
1
In addition to inciting a global trade war, Mr. Trump is picking individual companies and industries for his personal winners and losers game, doling out favors and inflicting punishment as he deems fit.
Guys, this is high stakes gambling, and this guy is an amateur with a very poor track record in his personal businesses.
"Send in the Clowns" is a good song, but no way to run a country.
20
Here's a back-up plan, start contributing to Democrats and get your employees to dump trump and his policies.
21
We're going to lose hundreds of thousands of jobs so one man and his crackpot advisor can pursue a trade war based on an imagined view of international commerce.
Unless he figured out how to export golf courses, real estate development does not exactly prepare you for international trade.
14
The SS Trumptanic imposes tariffs on China. China retaliates,
of course. Wonder what the Red states will do with all those Soybeans. It is folly to think that you can push the ascendant Chinese around.
18
Trump's trade war is starting a lot like World War I - a retaliatory strike is met by a cascading series of responses.
Hopefully, we are not in for four years of economic trench warfare.
3
To get by in this world, I have learned, even as a little guy, that you have got to learn to roll with punches and not to expect anything from the politicos that feels like common sense or fairness. Same with the clerics. Those of us of a more pragmatic nature learn how to adapt and prosper. I will confess that I have -- in my Lilliputan way. While Gulliver was doing his big guy act, I picked his pocket, took what I felt I was due me, and then put the wallet back. He never knew the difference. Heh, heh!
2
MAGA with no plan B. Sounds about right for this administration.
7
Trump is looking for fights around the world for no good reason other than to satisfy his own ego. The US economy is on fire. Unemployment is at record low. What for?
The world is being pushed into a turmoil because of Trump who is fervently supported by 35% of angry American voters. Why these people are so angry?
When the dust settles, the US will become a much diminished power. It will take about 5 years.
21
The countries that Trump has slapped tariffs on are not stupid. China, Canada, Germany, France, etc are targeting their responding tariffs on the red states with Republican senators..Harley Davidson-Wisconsin, bourbon-Kentucky, etc. When will McConnell and Ryan put the handcuffs on Trump? Stay tuned, but don't hold your breath.
7
The increased prices from tariffs will do real damage to my family's budget this year. We are building a home and need to replace a vehicle. Looking at purchasing a used vehicle but I expect demand for used autos will increase as the prices for new vehicles impacted by tariffs increase. We are still waiting to find out the full impact of tax changes on our bill. I heard on NPR that my state, Ohio, stands to lose 6 billion in revenue due to tariff related losses so cuts would need to be made somewhere. Our family did not vote for Trump but will feel the pain of this election all the same as will millions of Americans of all political persuasions. I sometimes think that I can somewhat understand how the French felt prior to the French Revolution.
25
The sad fact about this, is that to some extent Trump has a legitimate argument against the way China conducts its business and by working in concert with his NAFTA and EU trade partners they could have formed a formidable block against the Chinese and its current trading policies. Instead, what does he do? He has now alienated EVERYONE whereby, instead of working together they are ALL working against America which is now alone in this fruitless endeavor conducted by the whims of a demagogue President!
40
These people voted for a casino magnate who managed to bankrupt a business where the house always wins. What did they expect? Next we're going to hear "who knew international trade could be so complicated?".
144
Is it possible to work out a way that Trump supporters are the FIRST to loose their jobs. This would be only fair.
36
So this is what winning looks like.
13
No mention of for whom these captains of industry voted in 2016, but I've got a good guess. As the saying goes, "You've made your bed, now lie in it."
35
Oh absolutely. They ignored his racism, his misogyny, his corruption, his incompetence, his instability, and even his threats of a trade all for the promise of friendship to business and big tax cuts. Well, he's making good on those threats, and we'll see who is good for business now.
26
It just astounds me that Trump's base continues to support him in this even as they feel the effects. They keep saying to themselves "he must know what he's doing" because the awful truth of having voted for such blind incompetence is too much to bear.
128
The idea is to crash the economy, make a killing on short selling, pick up the remains for pennies, sell high after the democrats right it, and then complain about government interference.
409
I have no doubt Trump is massively motivated by money (duh!), but a conspiracy to short the market doesn't seem a likely explanation to me. 1) Trump is all about real estate and branding, nothing in his background shows a propensity to play the market. 2) Everything we know about him points to the most obvious explanation: Narcissistic megalomania leads him to think he always knows best, and that "I alone can fix it." For decades, he has pontificated about this or that political or social issue, now he has the power to decree.
Tariffs aren't about Trump's pocketbook, they are about his ego.
1
Lawrence:
I had that thought about the Trump administration privatizing the US government to the largest extent possible, along the lines of what Putin has done in Russia with the oligarchs.
What you describe is the rationale for letting the car companies go bankrupt in 2008=2009. Had Obama allowed that to happen, what you suggest would then have occured with their carcasses.
1
I so hope you are wrong as many of us faithful Dems are loosing our retirement savings. Thank you t-Rump. You managed to cover everyone and everything. Vote folks. Our lives depend on it.
2
Trump/GOP has done everything possible to help business and hurt People. I have no sympathy for business; they have none for us workers. Why were 7 GOP senators in Moscow on July 4? Investigate! What is happening between Russia and Trump/GOP? Ray Sipe
32
Michael McFaul, former ambassador to Russia, said it was very unusual that no Democrats were allowed to go on this trip.
He also brought up the fact that none of the Republicans were on the foreign relations committees, but instead were from appropriations.
Most alarming is that none of them warned Russia to not interfere with our midterm elections. It seemed to be a lovefest.
14
I'm old enough to remember when Trump only stiffed piano salespeople, and only bankrupted his own businesses.
24
We should go with the Democrat's plan for fair trade. Oh wait, there is none.
1
There was more than one plan and they were put in place but have now been rescinded. Were they perfect? No. But better than what these tariffs will be, which is destructive.
10
What the...?
Why are the Democrats obligated to have a plan when it’s Republicans who control the Congress and the White House, and when it’s who Don chose to start this unnecessary war?
And why is it that Republicans always demand that the Democrats save Republcans from themselves?
Good grief. When do Republicans start taking the personal responsibility they always insist on from everyone else?
7
Winning!!!!
Oh, wait...what?
11
This administration will cause jobs loss, higher consumer prices, and even as I type the Heritage Foundation schemes to throw millions off health care. Still. I expect to see Trump bloviating away in the rust belt, shouting about Schwarzenegger's TV ratings from a while ago, calling Hillary names and accusing the press of being the enemy of the people, with a pond of cheering, monochromatic MAGA-hat wearers behind him.
In the meantime, 5th Avenue is still not a safe choice for a walk.
I'm curious—will any of Trump's tariffs affect any of his own or his family's companies? Do any of Ivanka's stilletos have steel heels?
59
The founding fathers attempted to safeguard against the histrionics of a single ego gaining this level of control over the Nation, but they have been outmaneuvered. This trade war has roots in Karl Rove's Master Plan for Absolute Power.
12
Our dysfunctional US body-politic bears the entire blame.. The mass level of ignorance in this Country is going to kill us all.
6
Reuters reports that US may be backing down on 25% tariff on european autos after Merkel agrees to lower tariffs.
1
I guess Trump never shopped at Walmart and figured out that the inexpensive purchases his base counts on are all made in China or made or product imported from China. The "back-to-school sales" may not be as cheap as usual this year.
70
You didn't ask or cite if these business owners voted for Trump. I don't think the bridge that they bought can be returned.
56
When was the last time an American "journalist" ever addressed a difficult or challenging question to a business owner or a farmer?
3
We’re off and running - rusted-out car dealerships will be scattered across the landscape soon. Ditto for appliance retailers and any other business highly dependent on steel supply, and for which consumers are highly price sensitive.
13
Manufacturing is now forced to do what our ER doctors and nurses do on a daily basis: triage. The only difference is that our companies on which we depend for our economy and for employment do not have to be so vulnerable. No matter what the spin or deception, make no mistake we are in a trade war precipitated by this many-times' bankrupted president. So, now people have to turn off lights in order to meet the reality of supply and demand? I do propose a solution, however. Instead of forfeiting the welfare of our manufacturers and importantly their employees, put pressure on Congress. Certainly Republicans who are so pro-business have enough courage and spine to stand up to their inept leader who is fast-tracking this country toward another recession. Or do they?
131
"Mark Vaughn said the first rule in his contingency plan was to “take care of what you got and not overexpand.”"
That's recession talk.
I'm in the construction market and our industry is on pins and needles regarding the tariff impact to structural steel and miscellaneous metal. Owners and developers WILL scale back projects or cancel projects if the costs exceed financing package.
This is how recessions begin, one cancelled project at a time.
417
I just I formed my landscape designer that I am putting my request on hold until I get a better sense of how the market will go.
5
Trump’s theory that winning trade wars is easy, and his decision to impose tariffs on our allies, says it all. It shows his (and the “economists” advising him), detachment from reality, and his uncompromising determination to pander to his low-information base. A trade war and its unavoidably negative consequences are what happens when you either don’t read real news or you refuse to believe it.
I just hope the predictable retaliatory tariffs from Canada, Germany, France, etc. primarily hurt Red State voters to the point that they get some sense knocked into them.
318
You'd have thought that 4 decades of increasing inequality due to tax cuts would have already knocked some sense into them. They just won't see it.
13
Fervently agree, but have strong doubts that #MAGAs will leave the cult.
1
It's not detachment it's obedience to their paymasters.
There is a trade imbalance and the U.S. suffered for it for decades through un-(and under)employment and a steady loss of sovereign wealth. It's kind of ironic that the recent economic good times are crashing downward in a death spiral because someone finally wanted to do something about unfair trade. Wrong method and the wrong guy, apparently.
6
But, at least, we are finally admitting that the trade deficit exists and that maybe it is, actually, a problem. But, hey, the biggest problem is the constant cutting of the top tax rate. This is what creates the inequality that has so many people struggling. Oh, what America could have done with all that wealth we've let the greedy class keep.
10
Wrong guy, indeed! As in the past, trade agreements are negotiated, not by intimidation.
10
And wrong understanding of economics. A trade imbalance, unless in certain rare circumstances, isn't a problem (and less so one that needs addressing), it just means one side has more goods while the other side has more money.
As your example shows, Joe Average is completely oblivious to the fact that global trade doesn't work like your household accounts where a 'imbalance' actually is a problem.
What's worse is that the same people believe that America's trade imbalance (and which one, as it depends on what goods you're looking at, and is completely the opposite for other goods) is actually something that needs to be addressed, and because their elected leader is as clueless as his heard, America's economy is suffering.
Stupid is as stupid does, clearly.
1
The companies affected by the tariffs or price increases from domestic producers should publicize their contingency plans especially in their local markets. Whether it's workforce reductions (aka layoffs), lost orders, reductions in profitability or bankruptcies, all of those affected in the local markets should be made aware of the effects of tariffs and the impetus for the tariffs (Trump's lack of understanding of economic history, the effects of history and the inability to reverse globalism).
Similarly, the folks in those markets should understand the inevitable price increases that will show up at WalMart and other stores as other nations (especially the Chinese) impose reciprocal tariffs on goods they have exported to the US.
A 'double whammy' -- reduced business activity and increased costs for consumer goods -- for the Trump voters especially in Red States. Perhaps they'll learn that elections have consequences.
88
Well, frankly, this is just getting started and if the world goes into recession, it will have been devastating but, it all could have been avoided. If Trump tries to implement his auto tariffs the EU, in particular, have 300 BILLION in tariffs waiting in the wings to implement should Trump and his cronies try and we haven't even mentioned anyone else.
5
Yup, like lost jobs and higher prices and/or shortages.
1
Even if every price at Walmart doubles, all Trump, Fox and Limbaugh have to do is say that it's Obama's fault and Trump supporters will believe it.
4
I simply do not believe that the people who voted for Trump honestly thought he had any idea what he was doing. A vote for Trump was a vote for being frustrated and unhappy. Making people more frustrated and unhappy may just make them more angry with the elites and world trade and progress and everything else they have been told is "infesting" their way of life.
72
And they will never admit to being wrong about anything.
7
People voted for Trump because he told them what they wanted to hear. Some of them were even aware that he spewed falsehoods and lies, but they simply did not care as long as it reinforced their belief in their own superiority.
10
Trump and his minions are an excellent example of what happens when incompetents are in charge. They make a big splash with their initial decision, but refuse to see the ripple effects.
Trump was handed a booming economy on a silver platter, but given enough time, he will drive the country into a recession, the likes of which we have not had since 2008. Special Counsel Mueller, please do your best to help save this country.
260
The "ripple effects" are what Trump is banking on. Who makes the money if foreign firms are squeezed out of our markets? Could it be friends of Donald, or Donald himself?
8
In case you haven’t noticed that time is now... the recession is beginning.
1
The U.S. is about to find out that the rest of the world won't be bullied and is prepared to go on with or without us.
473
The decline of American leadership may just be another positive affect of Trumpism. America has not had the moral character to lead in my life-time. It does not deserve to lead. Long live the EU.
14
Perhaps more importantly; Americans are learning that Trump has absolutely no idea, much less strategy, about what he is doing with trade policy.
Nothing but crowing, bullying, breast beating and taking inappropriate credit with his base (low information voters) for how his screwball ideas are (not) working.
4
The rest of the world is rumbling towards autocracy just like us.
Turkey in the midst
Poland knees deep
Italy embarking on the journey
Rumblings in France, Austria, Netherlands, England
Germany's Merkel days or weeks away from ceding power with a resurgent NAZI
North Korea being embraced like an old friend
Duerte still up to his tricks
China getting a president for life and making our dear leader swoon.
Putin sitting like the catbird.
Trade wars will be hashed out as all these guys meet and greet and stomp on the remains of NATO and free-country alliances and "Trump" settles back on his throne. We got lots bigger problems than worrying about where the Harley-Davidsons are gonna be made.
3
Trump either does not understand the damage he is doing to America, or he does understand and is doing it at the behest of the Russians, who are seeking revenge for the destruction of the Soviet Union.
I initially thought the latter explanation sounded paranoid, but we are living in strange times.
415
This is truly a crazy theory. However I am struggling to fin a lot of data to reject it.
Imagine if Putin dictated what he wanted Trump to do. It would include:
Break up NATO and G7 (working on it)
Fight with proven allies (check)
Disrupt world trade (check)
Commit human rights violations as a cover for Russia (check)
Gloss over annexation of Crimea (check)
Befriend authoritarian regimes (check check check)
Sow the seeds of unrest within the US (check)
Shred US moral authority (double check)
I am only just getting started...
So I conclude that your theory is total insane and is supported by the data.
23
Considering the track record of the Trump campaign with regards to Russia, there's nothing paranoid about your explanation.
He's also fulfilling Vladimir Putin's goals while diminishing the United States.
Coincidence? I think not.
10
Voters are not aware than Trump is likely a Russian agent.
5
The price increases on domestic steel and aluminum are the anticipated effect of the import taxes. Competing against global suppliers keeps domestic prices low. When the price of imported goods are made artificially higher by the new taxes then the domestic suppliers can improve their profit margins.
It's great for the few winners, but bad for the many more losers, everyone who purchases aluminum or steel, imported or domestic, and everybody who purchases anything made with aluminum or steel.
Still, nice to see Republicans embrace big tax increases I suppose. Finally, we are all being called on to dig deep in our pockets and give our money to the government which we might have otherwise squandered on things we wanted to buy.
31
Donald got the biggest tax cut, remember.
6
Looking on the bright side, Trump's tariff experiment will give economists a trove of data with a bright line marking before and after. I expect Navarro and Kudlow to misinterpret it in a self-serving and inaccurate way, while Krugman, Summers, and Thoma give us fact and data based interpretations. Until it hits their pocketbooks in an undeniable way, Trump's base will not believe those facts. Recession, here we come.
236
I'm beginning to see a pattern: Repubs trash the economy and give the wealthy a tax break. Dems rebuild the economy (with tax-payer help) and try to create some hand-out programs for the poor - but, and here's the rub, they never really oppose the Republican economic view, the tax rates never go back up, wages stagnate, but the economy starts working again. Then the Repubs come in and trash it again. But the wealthy always gain, no matter what.
26
Trump's base will not believe the facts even after it hits their pocketbook. Belief is not based on facts, and Trump's base will continue denial of any and all facts that interfere with their belief system and world view. It's why Larry Kudlow can lie about the deficit, and Trump can lie about his motives. Anger over their lot in life will be misdirected at whatever group of 'others' is momentarily convenient.
6
I hope companies that do direct marketing like Dell are smart enough to post Prices + Tarrif like airlines do for fuel surcharges so the public is informed on why things cost more. Do that and tarrifs will soon end.
432
But Trump hasn't given himself a face-saving out. The only way this can end without him looking defeated is for the countries he's insulted to suddenly agree "never mind" on their retaliatory tariffs.
13
Good point, however, won't this be a pretext to go to war with China for "attacking" our self-defense?
China will restrict the flow of rare earth metals to the US. This will cause real problems in tech and defense.
270
We have a rare earth mine at montain Pass, CA.
Guess who owns it?
On July 10, 2017, MP Mine Operations LLC, a Chinese-led consortium including rare earths miner Shenghe Resources, purchased the Mountain Pass mine out of bankruptcy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Pass_rare_earth_mine
So even the biggest US rare earth deposits are controlled by the Chinese. Thank the Trump administraion for approving that sale in July 2017.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-18/trump-urged-by-ceo-to...
91
I agree with you 100%. China and Chinese companies control 99% of the rare earth market.
5
- Trump will follow through with the tariffs
- China will as well
- Damage will ensue
- Then Trump will end up undoing them, telling that he got massive victories
- All on time for the midterms or the elections in two years
- Voters will cheer, so will the same companies that today are being used and manipulated for his fraudulent and damaging campaign
In short: create a Frankenstein, and later when convenient trash an economic adviser, kill some tariffs and claim that you are controlling the problem you just created, and become a real hero for the gullible masses. The same play over an over.
I so wish I am wrong.
622
You are only wrong IF the media fail to do their job.
Care for a friendly wager on that one?
You are not wrong.
Same with the kidnapped children. Mr. Fixit strikes again.
Sadly, the people who voted for Trump are now going to be the first Make America Great Again victims. I take no pleasure in their pain. Their lives will be adversely affected because the Economist in Chief has no business successes he can point to that support his radical trade policies. Everything he touches turns out badly, including his North Korean, Russian, and Chinese "Deals", that like all his deals fall apart as quickly as they are cobbled together. Racism, xenophobia, and ignorance will not contribute to America's future. VOTE in November like your life depends on it because it does.
474
The problem is that many of his supporters still haven't realized that they were taken for a ride. I can understand why people voted for him, but if you still think he's doing great then I'm sorry but you deserve everything that's coming.
7
i take no pleasure in their pain either Ken, but i find as time rolls forward i do not care one WHIT either.
1
"I take no pleasure in their pain."
I do.
2016 wasn't Brexit, where at least the lies about moving money from the EU to fund the NHS were slightly plausible. (Entirely incorrect, but plausible.) "covfefe" didn't even attempt to base his lies on facts—only on the naked emperor's naked bigotry. The "silent" "majority" of "forgotten" "Americans", who are none of those, earned all of this with their votes.
It's not like they'll starve. Butter goes well with emails.
1
How long will the Trumplandians stay the course? I heard a very articulate hog farmer with a very big operation say that things were getting rough (and this was two weeks ago) but that he is going to hold steady with Trump. Until the Fall and then if things are still bad or worse...well, then, maybe not stay the course.
Do they have to wait until they're bankrupt before they step off the runaway train? Better do it in November before that train really speeds up.
We are in very dangerous times. Too many people, smart people, have bought the garbage that Trump spews. It's unbelievable to me. Is he Houdini or something? I don't get it. Trump has done nothing to protect Americans - from Kim, from Russia, from tariffs that did not need to happen. He goes around creating crises and yet....a lot of smart people (on top of all the racists who are just that, unintelligent racists) believe that he knows what he's doing. Even after all his history is known in great detail, they think this illegitimate president is good for America.
It's all so sad.....and unnecessary.
361
" Too many people, smart people, have bought the garbage that Trump spews."
Wrong!
We haven't bought that garbage, we just can't do anything about it. So we have two options: We can wring our hands and sink with the ship, or we can make the appropriate moves to maximally benefit from the economic downturn by betting on the inevitable losses.
Remember: Whether stocks go up or down, doesn't matter, as long as you are on the right side of the market.
Too bad that those who continue to believe in Trump will be the ones holding the short end of the straw, but for us to win, someone has to lose.
That's why we, the smart people, are siding with Trump these days. He will also look out for himself and make sure that his profits are worth his while. Anything else would be stupid, wouldn't it!
9
"You can fool some of the people some of the time, and you can fool some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time."
-Abraham Lincoln
Trump supporters seem to be, "some of the people all of the time."
10
Sophia, I like your post but must tell you that during my lifetime, I’m a boomer, I have also come across many very articulate people in my wanderings on this our planet we are busily and effectively destroying.
They could all talk a great game but intelligent they were not always.
2
We are seeing the tipping point in the long-running expansion which pulled us out of the Great Recession. Trump inherited an economy generating a couple hundred thousand new jobs a month, low inflation, and a stock market reflecting the optimism. All he had to do was ride the wave and not screw it up. He didn't read the memo that Obama left him.
The tax cut was written to juice short-term corporate profits at a time when an investment in infrastructure would have yielded benefits for a generation. And the tariffs are now causing business leaders to raise prices while reducing future investment out of caution. That's a recipe for inflation plus a recession. Trump has no clue what he's doing economically.
440
trump has no clue about anything except padding his own pocket at antother's expense. Period,
4
Your analysis sounds much like the first years of the G.W. Bush administration. Which makes Trump nothing more than a standard Republican as far as economic policy goes. Looks like a very long two and a half years ahead.
3
I work in commercial construction, all materials are going up, steel studs, electric conduit, metal door frames and hardware, sheet metal for mechanical systems, sprinkler pipe, and rebar for concrete. This price increase has started to make deals unprofitable. I dare anyone to provide a logical case how this is good.
I will feel no remorse when the people responsible for this market chaos are banging on my door asking for work. They can ask thier union and unemployment for benefits, but wait those are gone now too.
279
The other day a reporter asked a tariffed farmer, whose crop futures had plunged, if he still supported Trump. Answer, “yes”. Asked what it would take for his support to wain, he said: “well, if I go bankrupt that might do it.” Such is the “deer in the headlights” adoration for a 5 times bankrupted con man. Many owners of companies imperiled by the tariffs have already made their “I quit” money. They could close up shop and survive on X millions in savings and investments. It’s the hordes of blue collar workers, ripped from their employment, with mortgages and living expenses to cover, who will be in an instant existential crisis. So will the local cafe’s, retail stores, and property values. If Mid Continent Nail Corp, with 500 employees, goes down, I imagine Poplar Bluff, MO will feel the shockwaves.
160
We liberals TOLD the farmers, blue collar workers, everyone, that voting for Trump was a mistake. We warned them. They didn't listen to us but instead preferred the outright lies and fake news of Trump and Fox News. I believe their Good Book says something about reaping what one sows. It will be a bitter harvest. And I, for one, will not feel sympathy for them
11
And those in crisis will have no health care or food stamps, and minimal unemployment benefits.
2
"Tariffs are a tax." Bingo. They're just as much a tax as a sales tax. Not only are tariffs a tax, tariffs represent a tax on suppliers putting downward pressure on investment and hiring. Tariffs also artificially inflate the cost of raw goods. John Ferriola is correct. Prices will normalize. Prices will normalize at a higher price. That's called inflation. That price ultimately get's passed on to consumers. Higher prices mean less consumption. What's responsible for most GDP growth? Consumption.
I hope voters remember who to thank when they go to polls this November. We could have joined the TPP. We'd have 11 nations plus the US twisting China's arm on trade abuses. Instead, Trump started an unprovoked trade war with everyone. This is the result. People lose their jobs and you pay more for their product.
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So it's OK to have a garbage economy (use it once, throw it out) just for the sake of the GDP. It's impt. to keep interest rates low so stocks can trade at 33 times earnings.
It's OK for people in other parts of the world to be badly paid so American consumers can consume. Obesity reigns. (Feed em cocacola: treat em for diabetes 2! Kool.) IMO anything that slows down the economy is a great thing.
The green, recycling economy is a LIE.
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Worse then a tax. A tax may provide a public benefit, tariffs do not. Tariffs may benefit one particular group or group of investors but they hurt the public in general.
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The Trump economy is a nightmare.
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We keep thinking Trump and his cult followers are stuck somewhere in the 1950's. They're not, this is almost a pre-mercantile notion of trade. Even the vaunted Ford F-150 has a good chunk of it's parts made overseas. Our Ag sector utterly depends on foreign trade to survive. Don't any of them remember how much money they made trading with the Soviet Union during the height of the cold war? How much it hurt them when trade sanctions cut them off from that market. Nation states may well have borders, but economies have been international since before WW2. The total lack of insight, awareness or sense of history is emblematic of Trump and his followers. The clock won't get turned back, he can rail against modernity forever but he can't stop the world. We have millions of Americans now following the rantings of an ignorant lunatic as though they were to word of God. It needs to end.
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A line was crossed to-day. In the waters off the southern tip of New Brunswick in area claimed by both countries, but ignored by the local fisher folks in both who have made a living for generations off the sea, armed US officials boarded and searched almost 2 dozen vessels flying the Canadian flag claiming, they said, looking for illegal immigrants. The boarded vessels felt they were in Canadian waters. This latest action by Trump heightening of relations between what used to be the closes along that least undefended border in the world, will not end well.
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Trump and his followers are following some agenda, the question is who's. Who stands to gain the most with the destruction of America's relationship with Canada, NATO, the EU and Japan? Who desperately needs this? I would say that the vodka is flowing freely in Dzerzhinsky Square right about now.
LISTEN UP!!!
November 6, 2018. That's the date on which 33 senate seats, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 14 governorship's will be up for re-election. Put it on your calendar now and be prepared to be an informed voter. If you are worried, concerned, angry, disappointed about the direction the government is going this is the most effective way to make a change, stop complaining and start planning. Remember the president is only one cog in the government machine, and you can make effective change through voting for your local and state representatives, this is the check that can balance this situation. Pass it on…. I was told to pass this on so this people is very important. Be prepared.
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