Very biased pro-Euro article. “Many experts agree Italy would be poorer” Yea, and many experts agree the opposite. Did the “experts” predict the misery and destitution wreaked by the Euro throughout the entire South? The experts also predicted immediate economic recession and collapse in Britain after Brexit.
1
Lots of numbers. 2 populist parties.Populated by whom? For what? What is being counted? 88 days of impasse; blocking whom? What? Why? No viable bridges for a common consensualized good? More than 65 governments in Italy since the end of WWII? What accounts for the consequences, meanings and implications of such an enabled-number when transmuted into the daily coping, functioning and adapting of individuals? Families? Communities? How does, can, one consider, relate to a destabilization, falling apart, ETC. of a person 65+ times? A couple? A family? A friendship? A state of BEING? A neighborhood? A community? Mind boggling!
“hat in hand?” What about policymakers’ personal accountability for bodies, psyches and souls? In what ways can, does, the semantic surrealism of
“Populism,” small “p” or capital “P,” help one to adequately understand what is going on? With whom? What enables IT? What are viable options? And not just to have yet an additional piece of data-information? What is the weight of personal responsibility for individuals and their myriad of social, political, religious, economic, etc., systems in Italy? Past? Present? Tomorrow? North? South? Urban? Rural? What do any of the documented numbers add up to?
2
June , 2018
The Europe and American Spring as populist attempt to define politics in defense and preservation of making the brand of greatness universal. Assad as well making Syria great again, and the list goes on, and on. for conformity to the natural social cycles obey no laws unless redefined in light of truth and justice for all - homelands of course and on course.
jja Manhattan, N.Y.
1
Its much easier to blame Brussels and the immigrants than the Italians themselves. Everyone knows there is a huge underground economy in Italy that pay no taxes, and only fools from the north work a whole day (southerners are called mezzo giornos). They should listen to an Italian ages ago ... "The fault, my dear Brutus, lies not in our stars but in ourselves"!
4
ChinWu believe me we spend half of our lives blaming ourselves and as far as the huge underground economy that 'everybody knows about' is concerned, well, that problem has been massively reduced in the last years, albeit admittently more work needs to be done
2
Finally, they move to protect their borders. Gee, I wish we did that, especially in California.
5
As a student of economics, it seems clear to me that Italy and Greece were doing far better outside of the Eurozone than inside it. Now, when they have debts denominated in hard German currency, it becomes a millstone around their necks forever - perhaps for centuries. Full employment is never reached. This is a new and terrible problem. The unemployment rates are unbelievable. It beggars belief that anyone can say the EU has benefitted Southern European countries. I am amazed how slow this realization has been. Southern Europe has shown so much patience than one must worry about their cognitive ability at this point. A rebellion against the EU would be a sign of understanding and progress.
11
If you knew anything about economics, you'd know the unemployment rates were unbelievable before they joined the euro too (was 20% in Spain in the 80's and 90's.
The problem is structural, not the currency.
6
Having allowed the government formation involving the two rightist parties with no common agenda President Sergio Matrella has done his job assigned by the constitution, it's upto the coalition partners to respect the mandate and deliver on the promises, else be prepared for the fresh elections. Who knows the very spectre of another elections with all the uncertainties involved might work as a disciplining factor to ensure minimal governance and accountability-not an ideal situation but a necessity to tide over the populist phase of politics.
1
While I appreciate the clarity of this alarmist analysis of the "state of Europe", there are many statements way too exaggerated or plain false. There are not many things in common between the "populist" Five Star Movement and their coalition partner or other populist governments in Europe. They are rather liberal and leftist on social matters, no racism or xenophobia there. They fully participate now in Italy's political system that by design will not allow any radical moves, as we have already seen. I believe we can trust their "conversion to Euro" because they now started making simple counts and saw how much they would loose if Italy went back to lira - after all all politicians in Italy belong to an extremely privileged rich class making twice as much as their peers in the richest EU countries.
Nobody in Europe looks to Putin as a model or a true leader - I think only people in the US like Trump could, because they're so far away. Here nobody would want a an autocratic "Russian model" - the only reason people want to go easy on Putin is economy, stupid! A lot of Europe just doesn't think it's up to them to enforce standards on a foreign power, they prefer to make business with them and then maybe they can even have some influence this way - that's what its "soft power" consists of.
5
Shock and horror! The very idea of the government being actually selected by the people and not globalist technocrats is just horrifying!
9
It's actually the law that the president has this power. It's called checks and balances.
3
This narrative the NYTimes is trying to push about Italy and the euro is nonsense for three reasons:
1) Neither populist party intends to hold a referendum on the euro.
2) Even if they did, it would require two thirds of parliament to agree (highly, highly unlikely).
3) Even if a referendum occurred, polls show about two-thirds of Italians would vote to keep the euro.
So please bear the facts in mind before trying to convince your readers "the end of the euro is nigh"
9
In other Italian news in the Times, this headline:
"He Fled the Ash That Buried Pompeii, Only to Be Crushed by a Rock"
- a perfect metaphor for the state of Italy, after the 'Populists' economic policies are carried out.
2
Look at Steve Bannon stirring the pot in Italy! The European Union would be better off if both Americans *and* Russians would stay out of European politics. Remember that it was American billionaires who financed Brexit campaigning. Remember that it was an American company -- Cambridge Analytica -- that helped to frame messaging for Brexit. Russian influence is problematic in Europe, but so, too, is American influence.
Both Russia and the United States are toxic countries with toxic oligarchs.
Please, steer clear of Europe.
11
March on Rome, Part Deux?
... the Popular Party the first Spanish political group to be convicted of operating a slush fund. .... Spain’s national court also convicted 28 other businessmen and former politicians, who received more than 300 years in combined prison sentences for benefiting from a kickbacks-for-contracts scheme....
Spain doesn't do mafia very well. Italy, on the other hand, does mafia very well. And therein lies the problem. Entrenched, highly organized criminals at all levels of society and government wielding disproportional influence, terrorizing the populace and crippling the functions of government.
2
What you're seeing now in Italy is like a child who needs to take his medicine, but is insistent on having a tantrum first. He thinks he can avoid the medicine but in the end he's only making it worse by delaying.
Just like Greece, Italy can vote whatever fools they like into government, but that will only intensify and extend their pain. They've painted themselves into a corner economically and have nowhere to go.
The new government can try to play a game of chicken with its economy, currency and debt, but the EU has shown it's not likely to blink first. The press paints this as "the end of the EU" but there will always be an EU while there are countries that believe in the benefits, Italy is not required. The only way Italy can play this game is by cutting its own throat, and most thoughtful people are betting that Italy isn't quite that stupid.
6
Isn’t it time the NYT and other media stopped calling Nationalist, anti-liberal, and anti-market movements “populist?” Populism is, by definition established through long usage, the championing of the interests of ordinary people. While Steve Bannon and Donald Trump and Marine LePen and Victor Orban and Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Vladimir Putin, etc., may sound populist themes from time to time to garner support, they are primarily linked and defined by their embrace of authoritarianism, contempt for constitutionalism, and racist scapegoating.
Nationalist, Authoritarian, Chauvinist, Neo-Fascist, Illiberal, all of these appellations are more accurate and transparent. To describe them as “populist” is to act as their apologists and spin doctors, forfeit press neutrality, and become complicit.
15
About the PM, Mr. Conte, the Economist reports
"Mr Conte had padded his professional CV with courses abroad that he had neither taken nor taught. His curriculum stated he had “perfected his legal studies” at numerous seats of learning including New York University, the Sorbonne and an “International Kultur Institut” in Vienna. But NYU had no record of Mr Conte. Nor had the Sorbonne. And the seemingly august Austrian institute turned out to be a language school."
In any normal country this would have disqualified him, but Italy is anything goes
4
Gerhard, I spent a cumulative of 1.5 years visiting Columbia University as a PhD student from Milan, but there is no record of me in the archives of those leaves. Only when I was enrolled as a PostDoc officially at Columbia, then I got registered. In any normal country one should concede the benefit of the doubt .
4
Didnt the times just have an article about how the UK made a big mistake by leaving Europe and how wonderful the EU is?
1
Lowest point in italian political history (and yes, we've had some jerks). EU is the biggest and most important political creation in centuries. Europe has the richest GDP in the world, the biggest concentration of knowledge and it has the weakest politics in the world. Perfect prey. It is now at a turning point and I believe all this turmoil is due mainly to a constitutional transformation into a Federation of United States of Europe that is still far from happening but it's the only possible path we have. United defence, energy, politics, taxation. Also, from a strictly italian point of view, a) italian institutions always missed sending to the european institutions qualified politicians and high level bureaucrats. The worst are in Bruxelles. Most of them are simply ignorant and unable to cope with the other countries dedication to the european union. It's not that the germans defends a vague neo-nazi project and the french are all snotty and the dutch are racists and all this nonsense we hear about. EU is a technical project and one must be technically prepared to confront others opinions and to address in a way or another a political change.
9
Italian populist aka fascist aka imperialist aka nationalist aka right-wing.
3
This: "promising a sweeping crackdown on the illegal immigration that helped fuel their ascent" is distressing to read. Italy and Greece are indeed struggling with mass immigration - the numbers are staggering, the costs immense. But many places handle it well - Leoluca Orlando, Palmermo's mayor, is something of a beacon and the camps on Chios and Symi are relatively well-run.
However, Italy (like Britain) has a long-standing problem with racism. I lived in Rome decades ago, at the moment when a trickle of migrants from Africa were arriving, and was astonished by blatantly racist comments when casually to people. South of Rome, northern Italians would tell me, it was all 'Arabi'. Populist racist politicians have plenty to feed on in Il Bel Paese.
The historical ironies are hard to escape. Between 1880 and 1976, 13 million Italians left Italy; many faced egregious racism in the United States in the first waves. Millions more Italians have emigrated over the past 10 years. Swathes of Italian families will have generations of relatives in the diaspora. Recalling their experiences might foster empathy with today's global-South migrants, who are often exploited when allowed to work.
In the deep, contextualised view, immigration is necessary and brings tremendous benefits, not just in terms of labour, but from the nous and resilience of people who have survived war, deprivation and impossible journeys of thousands of miles. Italian-Americans, among others, have shown us that.
4
If it was true that "Italy (like Britain) has a long-standing problem with racism", then I cannot explain why and how large communities of honest and hard working immigrants have settled and are prospering peacefully in Italy. The Chinese community is just an example.
Hence, there is much more than the color of the skin involved.
"Racism" - however - has become the only, poor answer which Italian left-wingers are now able to give when confronted with the many undesirable and undeniable effects of what now is, by all means, an invasion of the Italian territory. And it is all illegal, because the immigrants are not survivors of incidents: they travel, without documents, on unseaworthy boats that not properly manned, equipped or licensed for carrying passengers on international voyages. They are aware, however, that shortly after their departure there will be a friendly boat waiting for them, ready to bring them to what someone still call "Il Belpaese", despite the existence of a safe harbor closer than the Italian border.
Your easy comparison between these migrants and the Italians who ventured in the States overlooks - among other things - that they were legal immigrants who were accepted as long as they found a job.
I suspect that, should you live again in Rome for some time now, then you will honestly admit that, yes, you understand why millions of Italian are, to be polite, "disappointed".
4
While most of the Italian immigrants who poured into the United States were given legal status, many experienced racism there, as is well documented. The same is happening to legal immigrants from Africa and beyond in Italy's tomato fields. Again, well documented (as: https://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/07/europe/italy-migrant-camp-exploitatio.... Your picture of 'large communities' of immigrants prospering is quite obviously not the whole story. And attempting to assert that there is no racism in Italy is disingenuous. It has long been there and it is on the rise: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/18/italy-used-to-be-a-toleran...
As for illegal immigrants, desperation is driving these people across Africa, often in closed trucks. Hundreds die in them. And the implication that they arrive on Italian shores to some kind of easeful life is inaccurate, as the pieces cited above show. This is why I admire Orlando. He is attempting to solve a human problem. I shudder at the tactics an unsavoury government (applauded by neofascist Steve Bannon, to boot) is likely to adopt.
As for Rome, I'm there every year and I hear opinions on all sides. And I see the parlous state of the city, the sinkholes, the rubbish, the immense frustration. The tide of immigrants are not creating this mess: corruption and poor governance are. Yet in every country where a newly emboldened far right have a voice, the 'other' is to blame for all ills.
The Italians need to dump the Euro, have their own currency again, and they need to control their borders.
All of this is a good step in the right direction.
I know it’s shocking to progressives, who would rather have the whole of Europe be ruled by mini-Merkel’s in Brussels and by Merkel herself, but it makes pretty good sense and it even made sense to the likes of Paul Krugman before he came down with a bad case of Trump Derangement Syndrome.
My favorite progressive complaint though about all of this, as expressed by some commenters here, is what will this do their precious ability to visit places like Greece, Italy, and Barcelona if Catalonia separates. Really? How pretty is this? The complaint doesn’t even make economic sense. True, they might have to change money when going between countries, but local ATMs spit out local bills, and plastic is taken in most places. Will this be slightly more inconvenient? Yes, but the deflated prices will be more than worth it! Not that tourism should be the driving factor here, but cheaper prices and fewer migrants and migrant slums is a pretty big tourism draw.
6
To just mention one thing the EU brought us: 70 years of peace after centuries of wars. But thats no big deal I guess.
3
@Mark B.
Do you discount the possibly even greater role the USA has played in post-war European peace and prosperity?
The two new reigning parties are probably not much different from standard Italian politicians: promise all, everything and its contrary to get the votes, then run a shoddy coalition that will accomplish very little while corruption runs rampant.
1
Perhaps Italy's problems stem from the fact that nobody - not the League, not Five Stars, not the Christian Democrats - actually knows how to realistically resolve Italy's economic problems. There is too much history and too many constraints. Yet no politician can run on a platform that says "not sure what to do here".
3
- but on the other hand - and this is an old joke -
The Euro soon will be 20 -(in words: ''twenty'') - years old and thusly allowed to drink since about 3 years - AND while hardly any young Europeans remember that there were some... 'funnier'' currencies before the Euro - a lot of readers of the NYT seem to remember that there was something B.E -(before the Euro) - and that there seems to be this possibility to go back in time -(like in this ''Back to the Future Movies) - and change the Euro back for whatever reason?
And that's a good thing as -(supposedly) - what Jimmy Kimmel always proves by sending somebody out on Hollywood Blvd -
WE - US - sometimes can't even remember if we had sex on the same day? -
And we -(an Italian and me) - sometimes wonder when commenters here write about the EU and Europe and the Euro - if it's a ''sexual'' problem - that you guys don't want US -(the EU) having a BIG and strong EURO?
2
BTW - the large trade imbalance with the rest of europe is Germany's fault. And they refuse to address it. But maybe progress will be made now that Schäuble is gone.
1
Enough with this populist nonsense. I don't like either party but what does that words even mean now? Aren't all parties populist? Isn't Trump a gigantic populist?
5
If the Italy's government a stake in the heart of the Euro that results in the currency's death, you can thank German EU Commissioner Gunther Oettinger who said a few days ago: 'Markets will teach Italy to vote for the right thing'.
This kind of elitist snobbery out of Berlin, the encouragement of unlimited immigration of violent African migrants, plus also the raw deal Italians got when they signed on to Euro is the reason why the European Union is collapsing before our eyes. It was European bureaucrats, not voters, who killed the idea of a united Europe.
In the end, voters will always put their own self preservation over the needs of the collective will and Italy's recent vote is an example of that. Viva Italia!
9
Casually dismissing the thousands of men, women and children who've risked their lives to flee famine, war, drought, poverty and repressive governments in northern Africa as "violent African migrants"?
In the very same sentence that you fault the "elitist snobbery out of Berlin"?
Uninformed vilification of the Euro and EU economic policy from Phoenix, Arizona - where disgraced ex-Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio used his office as an outlet for the same kind of irrational anti-immigrant hysteria, crass bigotry and indifference to human suffering that swept the Five Star Movement and the League into power in Italy.
We saw what that got Sheriff Joe, time will tell whether the formation of this fragile "populist" coalition in Rome, and Italy retaining the Euro as its currency, results in the collapse of the EU as you suggest.
Interesting that you characterize Italy joining the EU as a "raw deal" for the Italian people - how quickly some forget the massive human and economic ruin of WWII that devastated Italy and so many other nations.
A horror brought about in no small part by the rise in "populist" governments and creeping authoritarianism sewing division across the European continent today.
2
This humpty dumpty of EU can never be put together - it's broken beyond belief.
These EU leaders appear to either get brainwashed by the Deep State of Brussels or the paycheck is so good, they are happy to mime anything the bureaucrats put in front of them.
Of course, this is all beneficial for us as we can confidently turn our backs on these ungovernable Europeans. If it were not for all the charm that Europeans have marketed, most of us would have nothing to with that continent.
It's a continent wallowing in misery, displaying unfounded guilt to admit un-verifiable immigrants and then having a buyers remorse. And they continue to make enemies out of our POTUS.
Italy is just a visible tip of this iceberg that is going to sink the Titanic of EU.
5
Your characterisation of the EU is unrecognisable. The EU is not broken. Europeans are not ungovernable. Nor are they "wallowing in misery". They are largely peaceable nations with venerable democratic systems and institutions of higher learning and ancient cultures. Meanwhile the United States, to the rest of the world, looks like a nation in the grip of gun violence and opioids. I am fully aware that a huge proportion of the populace are involved in neither: but this is the stereotype. I don't think stereotypes are useful lenses on the world.
As for deploring the record of Donald J. Trump, millions of Americans and citizens in countries outside the EU deplore it, on counts ranging from impeachable offences (accepting foreign emoluments, abuse of office etc) to environmental deregulation to stuffing federal courts with arch-conservatives. And more.
The EU is an important modern union in our geopolitically tumultuous times. It has been transformative for Britain although to a degree problematic for Greece and Italy; but on the whole it is a very good thing for education, economies, science and culture. And it is some kind of bulwark against the threat from Putin, which is real. Putin is not just anti-US; he is anti-EU. When gangster overlords hope for a geopolitical crack-up, we can see the motivation. I'd be careful what you wish for: the world is unstable enough right now.
6
how insightful. get a passport maybe?
1
Have you ever been to europe? But I do think that europe should immediately pass all refugees from iraq directly to Texas. The home of the man who started this whole ME mess!!
2
May Italy receive what it is asking for.
amen
1
What Italians are asking for is to stay in the euro....
2
All of these problems can be traced back to Germany's Merkel allowing a million migrants into Europe one person ruined a continent. Can you blame people for wanting to protect their cultural heritage and their security
10
I see connections btwn things, sometimes where there aren’t really any. What connections are there btwn the appearance of breakup btwn European countries who’ve learned a way to get along together and breakups of groups such as the former USSR or Yugoslavia, groups who also had to suddenly learn new ways of getting along with each other and the rest of the world? Are there lessons there we could learn today, to either repeat or avoid? I wonder...
'I see connections btwn things....where there aren’t really any'.
this is pure genius
2
Since World War II, Italy has had so many governments that I've lost count. Italians used to shrug this all off, but a "populist" government that sets its sights on the EU could be an unmitigated disaster.
Italy, Spain and Greece, especially the latter, have weak economies compared to Germany, France and the other wester block members. To go it alone, in this day, is to risk economic disaster and more unrest.
3
Our debt is in Euros... Believe me, we're probably not going anywhere. The specter of default became pretty evident to everyone, despite much of what's been said. There was a whole lot of blunderbuss going on in the last week, but essentially both parties (neither of which I voted for), were brought back to their senses, and to the table, by the realization that, our debt was growing with the ever broadening spread, and, their on again off again relationship, was starting to annoy even their most loyal "fans". A whole lot of wasted time for nothing. Perhaps we need to get this type of political format out of our system, so we can eventually grow up, and move on. As I said, I didn't vote for them, but I do wish them well. Who knows, maybe they'll do better than what the established parties have done in the past. We have a beautifully written constitution... my one hope is that they respect it... as well as all the Italian people. This is what they've promised.
In bocca al lupo... as we say...
9
Marzia, I have to state that I love Italy. Spent a lot of time in Roma in my early twenties. I want a prosperous, stable and growing Italy. I've been aware of the north/south economic divide all of my adult life.
What is curious, decades ago, the best run city in Italy, in my opinion, was Bologna. Who was the party in power? The Italian Communist Party. Ouch!
Ciao!
1
Best wishes to this new Italian Government.
It’s mainly made of enthusiastic young people , even though the 5 Star movement and the League represent different type of electorate and have mismatched programs .
I wish they will find common ground to push the country forward , to free themselves from stale bureaucracy , give impulse to jobs and new ideas , help young people through meritocracy, keep Vatican influence away , stay and promote European ideals without succumbing to unreasonable requests .
Italy is a young country, it’s unification only happened in 1918 .
The variety of people, dialects, cultures, geography ,art, food , etc makes Italy unique and exceptional.
Give Italy and Italians the chance to react to this sociopolitical negative period , bad journalism can be dangerous.
We need some quiet time , let’s wait and see,
10
"Italy is a young country, it’s unification only happened in 1918" You meant 1870?
4
The completion of italian unification was after the first world war with annexation of Trentino Alto Adige and Friuli Venezia Giulia
The debt of Greece, Spain and Italy were bought by the Central Bank for pennies on the Euro. Now that the economies have stabilized, the central bank wants these countries to repay the debt at full face value. Germany benefited from the original loans by selling goods. Germany benefited from the bailout because the loans didn't go into default which would have bankrupted the German banks. Now Germany wants to profit as the Central Bank is funded by massive payments by Italy, Spain and Greece. The Eurozone needs major reforms for its currency, migration and immigration policies. Their failure to steps resulted in Brexit. Those groups who have benefited most don't want to give up their advantage. If they don't find a fair compromise, we can expect the European Union to collapse.
7
I completely agree. The only solution is to write off some of the debt of these struggling southern european countries so they have a basis for growth and investment again. But those very powerful & greedy banks...
1
This is a win for the Italian electorate. They finally will get their coalition government that the majority voted for.
Italy desperately needs immigration reform and control, and a financial restructuring so that it will not continue along the path of having a lost generation. The austerity that Merkel peddles on behalf of the German bankers does not help to grow the economy, but just the opposite. Ask any economist, especially the NYT's Paul Krugman. Also, the open borders than Merkel peddled in 2015 is not sustainable and does not benefit the EU.
The EU should not feel threatened by the result of a democratic election, in Austria, Poland, Hungary and now Italy. The EU should accept the will of the Italian electorate. The result can actually benefit the EU, if they heed the wake up call and reform themselves. If not, they ignore the wake up call at their own risk.
18
Just to be clear: I don't believe anybody in Europe looks up to Putin as a great leader or a model for them as suggested in this article. Can you find any such statements of a European politician? Only President Trump can say such things. He's too far away from here. If some Europeans seem "soft" on Putin it's only because of the economy. They just don't believe it's up to them to enforce their standards on a foreign power, they believe it's better to make business with them.
4
European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker “suggested that Italians must work harder and be less corrupt.” Yet he called for non-eurozone countries to join the EU’s common currency in his State of the European Union address in Strasbourg last September. Greece wasn’t qualified for euro membership, due to massive debts, but did join the eurozone in 2001 after cheating its way in. It needed a massive bailout following the 2008 financial crisis.
Italy might become another Greece, due to its mountain-high public debts accumulated during decades of government spending. Instead of weaning themselves off social largesse, many voted for the Five Star Movement, hoping to preserve their perks. The League initially emerged as a secessionist movement in northern Italy, where hard-working people despise their “lazy” compatriots in the south, who now form the Five Star’s corebase. It’s just a matter of time that this new coalition government between the two populist parties fall out with each other.
6
Juncker, a federalist has opposed a multi-track Europe, even though not all EU member states can move to the same direction at the same speed. David Cameron had called for a multi-speed EU without discriminating countries like Britain that aren't in the eurozone. Had Brussels been more accommodating and agreed to Cameron’s request before the 2016 Brexit referendum, many Brexiters might have changed their minds about leaving the EU.
2
It is an illusion to think that any concession would have kept Britain in. The EU was constantly accomodating the UK; ironically, even on immigration (the UK pushed hard for free movement of labour and emlargement to the East. No amount of appeasement can satisfy those, like the Brits, whose demands are based on ideology rather than facts.
3
Here we go again ...enough platitudes in comparing Italy to Greece
1) Even the worst moment of the 2008 crisis the region of Veneto alone had a GNP higher than Greece in ts best days ( and Italy has 20 regions...)
2) Italy is the second manufacturing country in Europe after Germany
3) The fundamentals of Italy are very strong
(numbers available everywhere on line) due its vast manufacturing economy
4) Italian export (that is ships , automotive precision mechanics, automated machines weapons, food agricultural products, luxury items etc etc) is also second only to Germany and this year better than France
5) True that Italy has 2.3 K billion Euros of public debt but Italian have and estimated 4 K billion Euros in savings.
6 )Italy has always honored its debt and that is why each and every time Italian Govt, Bonds are put on the market they sell within hours. Unlike the German ones, which yield next to 0 and are considered safe but useless when it come s to earning something . Italian bonds are to be found in any institutional investor's portfolio. So true that even Deutsche Bank keeps on buying them
By the way, I'm one of those Italians who did not vote for either party of this odd coalition in power and yet I'm one of those (many) Europeans that understand that German surplus should be addressed at one point ..it's also part of the Maastricht treaty, go check it out,
8
We are currently in Milan, Italy. Looking around, shopping, visiting museums everyone is going about their business. However, I wonder the impact that will be felt here if and when the euro is replaced with what?? Immediately there will be a downturn in the economy vis a vie tourism. I remember the days when you had to carry each country's currency and your passport - and obtain visas for some
While it may not be the most earth shattering consequence I wonder whether if Italy leaves the euro zone and Catalonia declares it is breaking away from Spain, will tourists turn away? Will I be able to buy my train ticket from Nice to Milan with one click as we do now? Will companies that have consolidated using the euro divorce if one is Spain and the other France.
Not the most burning issue but just a thought as I head to the train station and the Thello train which will seamlessly return us to Nice.
7
Leaving the euro is too difficult. We saw this with Greece, when push comes to shove and it looks like they will leave the currency union, the central bank fights back and starts the threaten bank deposits.
Although not an expert on how this will play out, I’m wondering if a more likely outcome is that the new government puts through Trump-like tax cuts and Bernie-style social spending therefore exploding the deficit. At that point, the European Union would say “you cannot do this because you’re exceeding the 2% allowable deficit” to which the Italian government might respond “noted, but we’re doing this anyway!”
2
''We saw this with Greece, when push comes to shove and it looks like they will leave the currency union, the central bank fights back''
I saw it with the NYT - when push came to shove and it looked liked that I wanted to leave the dollar currency union - they wouldn't take my Italian Lira as payment.
Milan is not Italy . The Thello train is run a private, for profit company - not either the French or Italian State , so it will run regardless.
That is why it's why the Thollo is so much cheaper
1
I find quite insulting that the author suggests europeans need a model .. and certainly not Putin. Europe needs good diplomatic relations with all countries.
3
This isn't news. Italy changes its government about every 500 days over the last 70 years.
7
Well, we like to change. What's wrong ?. True, we have a rather high public debt, but we have a private saving that is the double of that and inferior to that of Germans, British and Americans. Furthermore, we have always honored our debts. Keep calm.
3
I hope the refusal to accept immigrants is put into place. Each country has a right to protect their borders and economy. This will bring down the rise of fascism in Europe. I also think that Italy should stay in the EU and use the currency issued for all countries. The country has always been full of corruption but I truly hope that Italy becomes stabilizes its country.
10
I think that the USA has much more corruption than Italy...however whom do you want to be: the pot or the kettle?
4
I'm sure the US has much more corruption than Italy.
The difference is that the US just legalize it.
LOL
1
Looks like the Brussels-based unelected government of bureaucrats finally realize that their meddling is no longer appreciated.
8
The media likes to say Europe is rejecting Trump, perhaps hoping it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. The evidence suggests Europe is emulating Trump.
9
Anyone who thinks the Euro is anything other than a mechanism for Germany, and especially German corporations, to control European governments without being responsible to the people is delusional.
18
Germany have to lower their currency surplus (is 9% too high, not allowed according EU rules). So yes Germany do what they want without respecting the EU rules. The only one that is delusional it's you, that don't know what Germany is doing.
1
A prime minister with dubious academic curriculum, and a minister of European Affairs who is in his 80s and considered to have betrayed his country and his people. This is not going to end well.
5
I guess the Italians are trying to forget that the Lira was a disaster for them cause they couldn't manage their economy in a common sense way.
Maybe a few years as a 2nd world country will give them a little more common sense?
9
Nobody in Italy said to "leave the EU" or "taking the Lira back". That's a lie Brexiters wanted to believe...
I will never understand what made the German bankers think that the entire Mediterranean would quietly suffer under their yoke of 'austerity' for an entire generation. But it's not fair to just blame one country: Every Dutchman, Dane, or Norseman I talk to has had the same opinion for years: they think everyone from Portugal to Greece is a lazy trickster who won't work as hard as they do and just wants to enjoy life. Maybe that's why they go there and stay as long as they can each summer.
20
Wait... Danes and Norsemen work hard?!? They work less and they get paid more.
Honestly, people still believe the more a country is prosperous, the more people "work hard"? Even in many developing countries people work twice as hard.
3
Did the "bankers" put a gun to the Italians' collective head and force them borrow and spend trillions of dollars?
It's funny how people who rail against "bankers" and Germans always don't mention that part.
1
Long before America was built by Europeans into a nation of hate they had already built Europe into a continent of hate, and they have about 1500 years of History to prove it. It is this central feature of Europe now driving it apart much to Putin's Delight just as he Delights in Trump tearing our nation apart.
7
this was the correct thing to do. voting around the world is in trouble everywhere. making the population of this or any nation redo their collective vote would be worse cause not trusting results are rampant with a revote. remember the hanging chads and the trouble a few counties in florida caused.
1
Any government anywhere that permits only an elite segment of the population to hold power is neither populist nor democratic. Strongmen have a stranglehold on democracy. Still I vote.
2
The Eurocrats told their hacks to allow the populists to form a government only because they hope that once in power the populists will fail to be able to manage Italy (as everyone always does) and their reputation will be permanently tarnished. It's a trick.
All that matters to the Eurocrats is that the EU countries stay in the Eurozone. That's what the Germans and the German bankers want and the Eurocrats serve those bankers first. Had they kept the populists from forming a government there was a real chance that popular anger over the antidemocratic actions of the Italian President would return 80% of the seats to the populists in the next election. If that happens you can kiss the Euro in Italy goodbye.
6
I want to support the continued existence of the EU. But there are serious structural problems with it. Unfortunately these are not being addressed adequately. I had hoped that Brexit and votes like this one in Italy would serve as alarms to the EU leadership. But they seem still to be asleep to the growing imbalances.
With the EU leadership failing to address the problems I look to the League and 5 Star and want to support their efforts. But then they start cozying up to Putin and his criminal regime, and as far as I am concerned, that is a disaster.
This is a dark time. Europe really needs a different kind of leadership all around. I don't see anyone really concerned with the welfare of the common citizens.
10
The EU doesn't have a structural problem, it's countries like Italy that have structural problems. Their economies and labor markets are in desperate need of reform.
Germany reformed and is thriving, other countries haven't and are paying the price. The euro isn't the problem, it's the solution. Without the panacea of deficit spending and currency devaluation these countries are forced to reform. This is by design, the architects of the EU are not stupid.
1
Italy, already arguably the Mexico of Europe, seems determined to revert to subsistence farming/goat-herding within a generation. Exiting the monetary union and resurrecting the Lira would be a large step in that direction.
Italy has always needed Europe much more than Europe needs Italy. Switzerland, they ain't.
11
Reply to PeteH
Italy has prestige still . No other label has this unique appeal: " Made in Italy "
Also Italy boasts some of the greatest tourist destinations in the world ,where pilgrimage sites and revered art works overlap and appeal to a broad spectrum of visitors. It is positive to want to preserve this culture.
I live in Saudi Arabia - as a non Muslim I am not allowed to enter the cities of Mecca or Madina. If Italians should feel a little threatened to potentially lose their soulful treasures and want to foster a national identity , don't be too harsh to judge them. Other countries go to more extreme measures to hold onto what is dear to them.
15
You don't know what you are talking about.
Italy has a lot of thriving industries,which you probably don't know about : Luxottica has the world monopoly on glasses, Delonghi, Benetton...
3
We don't farm goats in Italy, we have the best brands 'Made in Italy" in the world...............and we work more hours a day than most of the other Europeans to keep our treasures alive.
You clearly show no understanding of my Country.
8
People who are familiar with the arguments of "brilliantly and convincingly" on "the problem of 'scale,' " in the book by Leopold Kohr, The Breakdown of Nations, will instantly understand earth shaking events convulsing EU.
Khor argued that "there seems only one cause behind all forms of social misery: bigness. Oversimplified as this may seem, we shall find the idea more easily acceptable i£ we consider that bigness, or oversize, is really much more than just a social problem. It appears to be the one and only problem permeating all creation. Wherever something is wrong, something is too big".
EU being an agglomeration disparate interests has been kept glued because of the cold war reality, imagined or real threat of Russia.
In the radically altered world scenario, Khor's most important contributions to political philosophy in recent decades will have be considered prophetical.
5
EU over reached much. Backlash was a given. US federal government also has over reach much, Trump was a given. Though indirectly. We obtained a Supreme Court that is keen towards state rights which is the more indirect route to the backlash. Which is good.
6
1. Polls show the remain in Europe vote increased from 56% in February to 59% in May.
2. Neither party campaigned (unlike the FN in France) on leaving the Euro
1. Germany did not benefit from the Euro (a French invention on which the Germans were never allowed to vote on. They wished to keep the Deutsch Mark). In response to the Euro, Germany underwent a painful INTERNAL devaluation under Schroeder that increased its global competitiveness. France and Italy did not
4. The Northen League started 27 years ago as a secessionist party to split Trento and South Tyrol from Italy. As in the Catalonian Independence movement the wealthiest region of a county does not wish pay for the less productive. It is anti immigrant, but it is not right wing - e.g. a number of its members, e.g are former communists. It’s virulent anti-immigrant policy (expel 500 000 in one year) allowed it to expand nationally
5. Five Star and the Northern League both want “Europe” (i.e. Germany) to take care of the huge debt that Italy could ran up under the Euro. Under the LIra as its bond rating would have fallen to that of Argentina
6. The major driving force for populism is unchecked immigration. This immigration became unmanageable after the collapse of Libya following US, UK, France and Italy attack, and is predominantly from sub Sahara countries undergoing explosive population growth.
7, The chief actor in the fall of Libya was the US. Italy is stuck with the consequences
6
It is not the Euro that ails Italy. It is corruption . Modern economic research established a well documented link between corruption and income per capita ( of which Paul Krugman is not aware)
I will post a based analysis again. It contains 4 currencies, the Euro, the Danish Krone, the Swedish Krona, and the British pound.
Country--- Perceived Corruption--- GDP per Capita $
Northern Europe:
Denmark--- 88--- 43 652
Switzerland--- 85--- 54 668
Sweden ---84---45 537
Netherlands---82--- 47 743
UK ---82---39 199
Germany--- 81--- 43 873
Central Europe:
France--- 70--- 37 697
Southern Europe:
Spain--- 57 ---33 706
Italy--- 50--- 34 097
Greece ---48--- 24 189
3
What could ail Italy ? Could it be, as Mr. Junkers opined , corruption >
A number based analysis
Country--- Perceived Corruption--- GDP per Capita Euro
Northern Europe:
Denmark--- 88--- 43 652
Switzerland--- 85--- 54 668
Sweden ---84---45 537
Netherlands---82--- 47 743
UK ---82---39 199
Germany--- 81--- 43 873
Central Europe:
France--- 70--- 37 697
Southern Europe:
Spain--- 57 ---33 706
Italy--- 50--- 34 097
Greece ---48--- 24 189
Data:
https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?DataSetCode=PDB_LV https://www.transparency.org/news/feature/corruption_perceptions_index_2017
6
Lots of comments. Reality is were talking Italy here, are we supposed to be surprised.
2
What the dead parents and grandparents could tell their children if they were only still alive...
16
Ooh you mean people who were alive in WWII? Well, some of them are still with us, so what? What you mean is called false equivalence.
1
The fallout from the neocon idiocy in Iraq and the ME continues...
27
I'm very confused by this comment; what does it mean? I also fail to relate it to this article. And I'm even more surprised by the number of people who recommended it.
2
The failed occupation of Iraq and resulting instability in the Middle East directly led to the surge in migrants that are exacerbating Italy's chronic inability to form a functioning government
3
Giovanni, the naked nativism that is leading to the election of despots across Europe and the US is a direct result of European Colonialism and the war in Iraq that has spread across the ME and created a refugee problem of staggering proportions.
I'm sorry I wasn't clearer. I'm sad the Italian people who have created so much beauty in the world, who are so smart, creative and generous are now viewing the world as us against them. I'm afraid it's soul may have just died.
"Populist": derogatory term for "democratic"; used when democratic outcomes don't agree with the user's ideology.
72
I'm not sure I follow the logic here. Democratic refers to the voting process and how government is constituted. Populist refers to the sort of policies endorsed and proposed by a political party. They are not one and the same. After all, demagogues can promote populist type programs and policies. Are you suggesting that the parties not supporting the views of the League and the Five Star movement are not democratic?
17
The logic is that the traditional dominant political parties do not represent the population. Over time, they have become pay-to-play organizations that represent the 1%. I believe RC is actually supporting the idea that the recent outcome in Italy is democratic. However, the word 'populist' is a loaded term that glosses over and diverts attention from the real issues.
3
Right, and a proof of the lack of precise meaning of "populist" is the union of the two parties at issue here.
Hey, status quo, people are mobilising. Think they've heard enough about economic equilibrium as science; comparative advantage as importing utility and exports as debits; and government being made safe for austerity and private lending. Think people have had enough of theoretical economics. Time for practical trade, production and finance.
14
No doubt everyone involved did some intense calculations of what might happen in a new election.
The rules have continued to shift, as the new election provisions in their Constitution are enacted into an evolving law. Next time would not be the same as last time. What would it be?
It appears it would not help those who defied the populists.
That is a significant answer, because it means this will continue to get more like this. It is not just going away.
The "center" of technocrats doing the bidding of the EU has not served Italians well, even if it was starting to do well for the EU debt holders, on balance of payments and taxes enough to pay bonds.
Italians themselves have continued their steady decline in per capita income taken home. They've dropped below Spain for the first time, which is not because Spain has done well.
Of course the votes eventually come home to roost. This is something that can go only so long, and we now see how long that is.
Anti-Trumpers beware, if you again suppress the faction of progressives among Democrats, it won't be the old line center among Democrats which wins (again). Italy shows how this goes. It only gets worse.
22
Mark Thomason,
It is “the faction of progressives” whose excesses created the space for Trump.
Inter alia: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/08/28/black-clad...
I would vote for a centrist from either party in a second (I voted for the only reasonable candidate in 2016: Gary Johnson). Progressives and alt-righters are poisoning our system.
3
Apparently you haven't completed the government and Institutions requirement of the Cal State system or you would not have wasted your vote
Britain out, Italy out, US out, all broken apart, now you can see how it feels like to live in a devided and unsympathetic world just like what you Europeans did to Mideast. If IS or whatever it is, ruling the middle east into an entire collapse, it's been all along your doing. I'm pissed now so please let us Iranians live our lives.
13
These swings toward nationalism along with fear and hatred of "the other" do not bode well for a future of peaceful coexistence. Where is this coming from? Are we so insecure that we cannot make room at the table for all? What about "love one another" makes room for this? I personally still dream of a global community of human beings seeking peace.
16
The EU turned it back on Italy in many ways and now it has come back to bite it. One does not have to be a "populist" to resent the loss of the lira, causing the loss of that country's control of its own economy.
28
The Euro is not to blame for Italy's financial woes. One of the biggest contributors is tax evasion, which is so prolific as to be almost the national pastime. It's easier and more popular, though, to blame Brussels and the Germans, rather than taking responsibility for their own failure to take control of their own destiny.
14
Uh, this comment is so bogus. The EU didn’t force Italy into the Euro. No one did. Italy itself consented to it.
There’s no need to rewrite history to make your argument. The fact that you do says a lot.
1
Tax evasion? It worked for our president.
Recently Italians had an opportunity for major changes in their election system and it was soundly rejected,it was thought to lead to concentrate too much power in one sector of government. After Mussolini, 50+ coalition governments have come and gone and this one has little chance of surviving the inevitable Salvini-DiMaio power struggle. The Great Recession still has not let go with under 30 unemployment at 30-40%,that's a depression. I am very concerned about my birth country but i can tell you people still savor their "passegiata and gelato"
29
As one who was not only born but also grew up to adulthood in Italy, I echo your concern. These are scary times for the country as we knew it, and for the world at large.
29
You can certainly guess how concerned I am, still living here in Italy for the 90% of the year...this situation is deeply worrying, at least.
3
give me one reason to be scared. What is gonna happen? exit EU?, no. Bailout?, no? deportation of innocents? no i don't think so. What then?
So democracy wins at last. The parties that the people voted in will get to govern.
41
Far right "populists" are getting their chance to redefine who can participate in democracy using their only bargaining chip: artificially inflating their value of their respective countries' citizenship.
This was the inevitable result of austerity programs: the EU was the product of a Keynesian project of shared social benefit for Western Europeans and North Americans.
Look for these leaders to plunder their respective national coffers in the model of post-Soviet Russia and current US politics/elites.
They preach nationalism but what they truly seek is corruption unchecked by international bodies or domestic regulation.
20
And exactly what was the shared social benefit for North Americans? Or anyone else?
I agree with you.
I will open a bottle of good Italian wine tonight. I will celebrate. Democracy is alive and well in Italy.
33
In one hand it is a good thing we did not go ahead with a so called "technical Govt" nominated by the President to only take care of current affairs and to orderly go again to vote in October. But this happened because in the end the two parties exactly did what the President wanted : avoid Savona to become the Minister of Finance.
In any case, attached the text of the Italian Constitution in English so you better understand what the Italian people meant by democracy after Fascism and disastrous war (can not be changed by lunar direct democracy according M5S or by a tweet Trump style)
https://www.senato.it/documenti/repository/istituzione/costituzione_ingl...
The fact that Steve Bannon blessed this Govt its already a certificate of authenticity of what is about... it's called populism
So to answer Rosaria post ...I'll keep my bottle of wine for when this Govt goes home (the odd couple alliance will not survive for five years since there are looking in two different directions)
Thanks to the horrible electoral law there are no real winners in this election (that is 50,1%) This is just a strange tactical alliance between the first (33%) and the third (17%) looser.
Do not miss the military parade Saturday, is Republic day (Festa della Repubblica).
W l'Italia
23
This is not about “populism” but what these elected parties (5Star and Lega Nord) propose as policy. The first proposed Finance Minister supported leaving the Euro. It would be a financial disaster for Italy to leave the Euro/EU. Bringing back the Italian Lire would result in extreme inflation.
While I agree Germany has insisted on too much austerity since the financial crisis, the real problem for Italy is loss in productivity and inability to cope with the challenges of globalization and technology. Italy needs better skills, organizational models, and regulatory structures. Italy has an aging population and low birth rate. Job growth requires economic growth which requires increased productivity and/or population growth.
man, if you open a bottle of wine to celebrate a failure it means you basically hate your country
The Duce || ?
3
who, Donald?
12
Not quite, but with Mr Salvini Minister of Interior going in that direction
6
When an event that nobody predicted until recently happens it creates risks and opportunities across the globe. The nimble have already placed their bets and started their movements. Being an American who has touched down at Di Vinci a few times I have no idea what will happen next. This is a trigger for other events. I hope the best and not the worst events will follow.
4
it's Da Vinci, not Di Vinci
15
Neither leaders of the two main parties were able to earn a bachelor degree. They are ruling Italy with an high school diploma.
Probably irrelevant, but i am not aware of such a condition in many other countries. One of the two, Di Maio, 31 years old , started his political career as a student union leader and he has never graduated from college. He is going to be secretary of labour and economic development.
The other one, Salvini, 45 years old, dropped out of college after attending for 16 years, missing 5 classes to complete a bachelor degree program in history . He will be the new secretary of interior affair.
Meritocracy at work.
13
miche, George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and harry Truman never graduated from college. Do you want me to continue?
23
Harry Truman died in 1972 . Please continue with somebody a bit more recent. Thank you.
Miche, as a college prof here in the US with a PhD from Italy, I can guarantee that the Italian and the US education systems are completely different. Here in the US we graduate a lot of semi-literate people with degrees in psychology or communication, art history, etc - i.e., degrees that guarantee a job at Panera.
Di Maio and Salvini read more books in their 5-year liceo (high school) than my American students will ever read in thei four year of college.
Don’t forget that the first two years of a US college is nothing more than advanced high school: what else do you call the core requirements of Engl 101, Span 101, and the like courses?
Instead of seeing it as a force bringing possible disaster, Italy seems to be embracing Russian meddling. The last time they got really cozy with a foreign power it was Germany, and look where that led them.
11
Do not be surprised if persons of African dissent are murdered by supporters of this regime. Italy has become the test case for running a government on hate. I have an idea where that will lead them.
7
yep, maybe we could help you extend the wall with mexico
4
After watching Chinese Exclusion show on PBS - seems like stupid & intolerant is in vogue worldwide again!
4
Most Americans strongly oppose this idea. Traveling in Italy, Modena to be exact, I found more Trump supporters then I meet in Rhode Island. If living up to Trump's level is your idea of a government to be proud of then heaven help you.
2
Let me guess, another Russian misinformation campaign?
5
Italy now has as stupid a government as the USA. Monkey see monkey do! They’ll be sorry. We already are.
13
On contrary maybe is the first time after 30 years that we have in Italy a true and competent Government. This is why it don't like to EU bankers and most of all Germans that are in their 4 reich...but economical.
2
I'm not sorry
The two groups in the European Union who understand the reason the Union exists, are the wealthy elites who control the governance of the Union, and the second group is the Unions' poor and middle-class.
Germany due to the reality its was always, and is, the powerhouse of Europe, is enjoying outsized benefits, while every other member, historically financially weaker, has remained so, and getting ever poorer, due to having relinquished control of its borders, it's national heritage, and most important of all, it's economic independence
The Union is as close to being the United States of Europe, as it could possibly be, with the seat of power in Germany, the defacto equivalent to our Washington D.C., with nearly no representation from true representatives of the poor and middle-class, except for northern tier members.
England knew the implications of adopting the shared currency, the Euro, one such being the inability to devalue during financial crisis, so they kept their own currency, the Pound.
The destructive austerity measures imposed on members, especially southern tier members, is one driver of the rampant populism we are seeing, and the open border policy is the other.
Survival is unlikely, given that Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal, are all on their knees, held there by the relentless financial burdens imposed on them, burdens which will never go away, by people they regard as hardcore opportunists, fixated on making them the modern-day serfs of the Union.
35
Well-put, thank you.
I remember when the EU was first coming-together, that Margaret Thatcher was against it. I'm curious now to revisit what she had said, to see if was especially prescient.
12
She was a hard-headed pragmatist, (a belief in doing what works best, in her opinion), and spoke her mind.
BBC excerpt and link -
"In her 2002 book, Statecraft, she suggested the European single currency was an attempt to create a "European super state" and would fail "economically, politically and socially".
She called for a "fundamental re-negotiation" of Britain's links with the EU, stopping short of calling for withdrawal but nevertheless suggesting that the UK should pull out of common agricultural, fisheries, foreign and defence policies.
"Most of the problems the world has faced have come from mainland Europe," she wrote. "And the solutions from outside it."
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-11598879
The EU was born of France's fear and Germany's remorse. While those sentiments are historically understandable, they are not rational reasons to adopt economic stepchildren like Spain, Italy and Greece.
Then, as if the economic chaos wasn't enough, the EU tolerates (if not promotes) unfettered immigration from the Middle East and Africa, upending local cultures and threatening national identities.
Seriously...how did you expect people to react?
51
And to be perfectly clear, Italy has been the main recipient of unchecked mass migration from sub-Saharan Africa for several years now, with the rest of Europe looking the other way. Indeed, how do you expect people to finally react?
10
Well, Italy wasn't exactly a "stepchild" since it's one of the EU founder member...
3
Perhaps what we’re witnessing in Italy is the further discintigration of nationalism, people are still flocking to large vibrant cities all over the globe. These city governments are solving problems that larger nations are paralyzed by.
Cities are the true international successes
5
What are the vibrant cities in Italy?
2
@aarp: Milan, Turin, Rome--to name a few.
5
Yes, people are fleeing to the world's cities but cities are fundamentally incapable of solving national level problems: national defense, national transportation, tracking and containing health problems and issues, immigration, climate change, and national standards-setting roles for electronic goods, construction materials, clean air and water. The issue is finding the right level for fair, transparent, and constructive leadership on issues.
Every large vibrant city has intractable problems which
aren't being solved (Capetown, Rome, Kinshasha, Flint, Mi, Paris, etc.) which drag down their standard-of-living.
Good. Better for the President to stand back and let the elected representatives succeed or fail at governing without interference by "elites" who know better than the voters.
21
"Good. Better the President abdicate his responsibilities and let inexperienced representatives elected by uninformed xenophobes without interference by educated professionals who know better than uninformed voters."
10
Are you saying that monarchy is correct?
3
So T.J., would you recommend removing elections entirely? Perhaps the elites should have known how to better sway the public.
Before the American euro-skeptics jump in with their populist gloating, please keep this in mind: Italy's actions are the equivalent of Florida deciding that it's better off bucking most of America's financial rules and norms then ditching the dollar to try to fix self-inflicted structural problems.
If your first thought is to panic at such a potentially catastrophic decision, then congratulations! You now understand how the majority of Europeans feel about this result. Unfortunately, the celebration will be bittersweet at best, and a nightmare at worst.
14
I think a lot of northern states would be happy!
2
More like West Virginia making that choice. You have 132% deficit of GDP right now and the League wants to cut taxes to a 20% flat tax while the 5 star advocates a guaranteed income for all. It wont be long before they will be forced off the Euro for Lira that will result in hyper-inflation. By Christmas Italy will be a humanitarian disaster.
1
No, it is not like Florida doing its own thing. Florida is a state, Italy is a country. Period. The EU is not a country but a group of countries working together. Italy can leave the EU without asking anyone, Florida will need to get Congress approval to leave.
16
Italians make a mockery of governance. They aren't anti-government, per se, just anti-good government. Until they take their institutional framework seriously - which means changing the weak one they have - this article can be published annually for the foreseeable future.
8
Well at least Italy now has a government and will be joining other EU-Skeptic parties like those in Hungary, Poland and Czechoslovakia. I doubt that the President will stand in the way of the electorate on this new cabinet.
I foresee a rough road head for these parties and for Italy and Brussels. Brussels is getting slapped down by several country. If you remember the latest idea from Brussels, via Angela "the Wir Schaffen das " Merkel is to financially cut the subsidy the EU gives to the poorer countries. That absorbing large numbers of Refugees will be part of the EU Policy.
I can't wait to see the meeting in Brussels about that.
It is the uncontrolled arrival of Third World Immigrants which has really caused the current crisis. They are trying hard to come up with a solution, like establishing refugee colonies in N. Africa to which they want to deport all arriving illegal immigrants and Asylum seekers, while they process their applications. German is going to build a large detention center for deportable immigrants that they are unable to DEPORT.
The US should ask Mexico if it can build a large deportation center there for all arrival at the southern border. Process them outside the US so they can't really claim asylum on US land.
11
Where to begin with that half-baked analysis?
That there’s no Czechoslovakia anymore?
That thanks to W. and his boss Cheney Europe is overrun with refugees from the Middle East, and thanks to Hillary and Hollande. Especially Greece and Italy are overwhelmed by immigrants from across the Mediterranean on their way to western Europe. Both countries suffer most as they are trying to fix our most recent grandiose blunders on the world stage.
Germany embraces the influx, both immigrants and refugees, because they desperately need the new arrivals work power to sustain their aging society. Instead of detention or deportation centers, they set-up language classes.
https://www.ft.com/content/116f6946-21ad-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d
Whatever….
11
Well it IS Italy. This is what? Post-war government #75? Italy has never really found a way to bond north and south. Though I suppose this could be it: hatred of prosperous Germany, France & the UK who have long looked down at Italian governance. But Italy needs to understand that without the EU, they face a big challenge: making folks see them as a reliable and stable partner. Though I can think of one country that would be proud to associate with a right-wing government based on whiny victimhood...
7
So this new populist alliance also plans to lift sanctions against Russia and to enable for "Italy to move closer to its president, Vladimir V. Putin, who once said he didn’t need to meddle in the Italian elections because it was all going his way."
So Putin is rubbing his hands in glee as his master plan to slowly pull the EU apart just advances a notch.
Today Italy, tomorrow Spain.
6
Mr.Horowitz is giving a rough and largely incomplete description of the events that led to the present scenario, using the usual condescending jargon (but that's not relevant). What is relevant is that, like it or not, this is what the majority of the Italians voted (not me, incidentally), and hence, the Eu will have to find a way to cope with this, and actually, let me add that new ideas and visions are generated by educated opposition and disagreement rather than by redundancy of thinking. Finally, you guys and Mr.Horowitz may think and read what you want, but Italy will never exit the Eu. We founded it.
Be well my friends
45
Thank you Giovanni Muttoni for your insight as an Italian. Unfortunately there are many comments here coming from people who know nothing about Italian history and consequently its politics. I, too, did not vote for neither the Lega nor the M5S... I was in the hospital during election day, but fortunately an election official came to the hospital so that I and others could vote.
2
We know the feeling, Italy. I hope you will have a government that represents your people soon. This ain't it!
4
Are you suggesting the parties the people DIDN'T vote for DO represent them? Italy DID have an election, after all.
2
So "It Can't Happen Here" (Sinclair Lewis) huh? OUR President (who's no Roosevelt OR Truman) seems to approve. Be afraid. Be very afraid.
3
Italy will soon return to the Fascism of World War II Mussolini. They will attack immigrants, minorities, and they will enjoy the power of fracturing the European Union.
It will end in catastrophic results for Italy and its people. Before these radical, right wing conservatives make any further moves it should consider; World War II brought Italy to its knees. Since World War II Italy has not been able to maintain a stable government and a stable economy. Now it is toying once again on the fringe of extremism. Courting Mr. Putin can only lead to further isolation from the European Union and further from democracy and freedom for Italy, if not a great part of Eastern Europe. We no not have to wait for the other shoe to drop. Italy will distant it self from the United States, Great Britain and France. Maybe next she'll find a reason to invade Ethiopia and attempt to establish reign over Jerusalem and Palestine as did the ancient Romans. I would not be surprised.
9
Doubtful. Fears of fascism are tremendously overblown.
The 1930s can never be repeated because that type of mass mobilization is impossible in the internet age: there are simply too many easily accessible avenues for opposing views to enter public discourse.
Our age of irony and millisecond attention spans would never allow the rediculous posturing of strongmen to gain the sustained support of the masses that's needed for textbook fascism. (And any comparison of Trump to Mussolini ignore to the fevered and terrifyingly lethal support that true fascist sustained for nearly a decade)
3
The picture despite ..surrounded by members of the media..really.
There are only two!
2
“So long and thanks for all the fish.”
2
If possible, approach this event clinically; EU’s 4th largest economy, plagued by decades of truly incompetent governance (and out right bribery w/ Berlusconi), crushed under a Brussels designed currency, serving as the de-facto port of entry for the EU’s largest immigration surge, finally elects people to tear the rotten edifice down.
This should be a triumphant story about the power of people and democracy. Yet my fellow readers will gnash their teeth endlessly.
This is because of the immigrant question.
To put it simply, we still discuss, almost 2 millennia later, Hannibal’s invasion of 25,000 North Africans as the defining Roman crisis. Why do we not expect the arrival of over 1,000,000 North African migrants to cause political turmoil?
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You're comparing an exceptionally capable army of 45000 /- (not 25000 and with elephants) to an exaggerated amount of refugees making sure to include their ethnicity. Exactly the type of fear mongering argument that allows for evil to rise.
3
Fascism returns after 70 years. Just enough time for those who learned first hand how destructive and vile that philosophy is to die or become too weak to stop it. People as a whole really are fools.
6
This being one of those rare non-opinion non-editorial actual news items on NYT front-page - may want to share the specifics with folks...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44322429
So you don’t have to search for the link…
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/giovanni-tria-may-get-economy-minister-role-in-new-government-20180531
The question is will these fascists get the trains to run on time.
3
Vladimir Putin is rejoicing. Who knew that social media would help destroy Western democracies?
As Boris Badenov said, "Like taking candy from baby, heh heh."
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Mussolini would be proud...
2
This alliance can be summed up as "Black Lives Matters reach deal with KKK"
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The more I see the rise of tribalism, the more it appears history is doomed to repeat. There's a whiff of the stresses and challenges in the build-ups to both WWI and WWII on the continent.
As for the United States, this particular moment has never before occurred with such intensity.
Today I had lunch with a friend who just returned from 7 days in Poland where her daughter defended her dissertation. I asked her about the mood there and she said the people were really down about the resurgence of fascism.
However on finding she was American, the Poles she talked to were open in saying how terrified of Donald Trump they were, fearing he was about to blow up the world.
The Italians may soon find out, however, that its easier to run against the status quo than to effectuate genuine change.
The problem with cozying up to opportunistic snakes like Putin, is its hard to get out--and the next time Europe needs a military bailout, they may be astonished to learn the US is no longer available.
17
The anecdotal information about what the Polish people think is of little significance. The Polish governing party (conservative and populist) remains very popular, and will likely stay in power following the next election. As for the fear of what Trump may do to the world, we've been hearing this here too. So far all the doom and gloom hasn't materialized, has it?
6
Since the world is one village, it would be easier for the "best and brightest" to migrate to the global south, bringing hope to the many more who cannot migrate to rich countries. Poor as the migrants appear in the eyes of the best and brightest, they are likely middle-income people in their own communities, and the really poor could never afford to migrate in the first place and are perhaps larger in number. Rich countries should dedicate part of their international aid to help send their "best and brightest" to the global south, and accelerate globalization.
People all over the Western world are rising up against the control of the elites who have only looked after themselves. The fall of capital markets is not going to warn them to 'behave'. They are going to take back control of their nations and stop the globalists from turning the world into something that resembles the European Union.
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''They are going to take back control of their nations and stop the globalists from turning the world into something that resembles the European Union''.
From the heart of the European Union - the European Union looks a lot better that nearly all the individual ''nations'' of the European Union while I think that NY and California looks a lot better than the US Union - but perhaps NY and California one day could become a member of the European Union?
-(at least in spirit?)
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You mean rising up against the other guy's elites. Your elites are all just fine, always keeping the interests of the poor and the working man at the top of their priority list.
6
The EU has only itself to blame. With the aid of Germany of course.
The whole artificial alliance is slowly imploding.
Borders will be coming back for some countries.
5
Still -
No!
Italy won't leave neither the Euro nor the EU.
And still -
Everything is the fault of ''them Germans'' - but as they are pretty busy it all will depend on the Italian Clowns to be as entertaining as US?
It's Doubtful!
6
A bizarre article, with vague descriptors ("anti-establishment," what does that mean?), and dark intimations of the boogie man in the corner: the evil one himself, Putin. Much of the Times coverage of Italy looks like press releases from Brussels. The Italians actually have real grievances with the EU, mostly around the Euro. As Paul Krugman keeps reminding us, the common currency has been a bit like taxation without representation for much of Italy. Just having been in southern Italy recently, I've seen the effects of the tidal wave of migration from Africa, and how the rest of Europe have stiffed Italy, and that Italy has performed admirably in dealing with this crisis. I was in northern Italy 20 years ago and had a sharp discussion with a young academic enamored of the then surging American legal doctrines of "law and economics"; surging by no small help from right-wing foundations like Olin and then the Koch Bros. to fund professorships, "think-tanks" and departments like economics and law at George Mason University. It has been successful, and this young academic could not be persuaded that Italy had much to lose to the gods of economic efficiency uber alles. The statements from the technocrats in Brussels, to the effect that why should we pay attention to democratic plebicites when market decisions are all we need, is the root of this soverignty problem. Neoliberalism and Democracy are not compatible, and the "hinterlands" and now core of Europe tell us.
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Forget the politics, look at the economics. Italy’s debt is over 130% of GDP, some 40% of the economy is ‘off the books’ and the population is shrinking. Unemployment is sky high, especially for young people. The ‘populist’ leaders have zero experience doing anything except yelling louder than anyone else. Good luck looking to Russia for a bail out, they have nothing to offer. Germany has the answers, add value to raw materials, stay out of debt, spend infrastructure and education to develop your people. It works, they are doing great. Greece, Italy and some extent effectively traded on good credit of Germany for several year, ran up huge debts, failed to pay them back and they are now looking for an ‘easy’ way out — there is not one. The clown show is not going to be helpful.
12
As Paul Krugman keeps reminding us, the common currency has been a bit like taxation without representation for much of Italy.
Well, it's more like the miafiocracy can no longer easily skim / bribe / extort / launder Lira as easily as they used to. So, the Capo's and their underlings have everyone believing that the euro is BAD.
The bad thing is the mafia(s) can no longer provide as they once did the things the government couldn't or wouldn't. Boo Hoo to that. Up the Euro!
7
Tim B, yes let's look at the economics: Italy is the 3rd-largest economy in the eurozone and the 8th-largest economy in the world, and all this in a country 3/4 the size of California and with no natural resources whatsoever. Be considerate of us clowns!
1
Italy's Government Debt to GDP is already pegged at a nosebleeding 132%
So the big question is who ends up paying for all of these massive public spending proposals?
13
Europe i.e. Germany
Italy, a country that has long been on the brink of a crisis, is now on the brink of a crisis. There are so many reasons to think this one may be different however. But I think many thought that last time.
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yet we are still here after 3 thousand years, David
12
If it is a crisis for Italy it is a crisis for the globalist EU and its German overlords. The people of Italy are taking back their country. Let's hope they are successful.
9
It seems clear now that the Euro is a failed experiment, but this must be taken in the context that Italy is, with or without the Euro, a state in the permanent status of failure, a nation more or less constantly tottering on disaster, so this latest swing falls under the heading of, What's new? Well, of course, intense nationalism over everything else is new at this time, but, in the chaos of Italian politics, almost anything can happen. (Berlusconi)
One does not have to be an anti-immigrant bigot to see that the erasing of national borders for Euro wide free movement, and settlement, causes great problems. Immigrants are often willing to work for any wages and start at the lowest, least attractive jobs. This causes resentment, especially among those who are close to poverty. Many immigrants also arrive with skills running small businesses, like neighborhood micro-stores, that enable them to jump over the native born.
For those on the bottom of the economic pile, the changes come too fast and too often. Did anyone consider the potential blowback as the European Union came into being?
57
"One does not have to be an anti-immigrant bigot to see that the erasing of national borders for Euro wide free movement, and settlement, causes great problems"
Sorta like the open borders between the formerly independent states in the USA?
8
They considered it and summarily dismissed it.
1
Many migrants ARE the bottom of the economic pile. And if the native-born don't have skills running small business, then maybe they should fight for proper public education (instead of letting for-profit "private", corporate-welfare "charter", and sky-fairy "parochial" outfits siphon the money and give nothing for it)—it should open both students' minds and their doors.
The Euro is not a failure so much as a target—of putin. Divide and conquer.
11
The EU will lose the Euro eventually because it inhibits the destabilization of the individual economies because of the German and French superior position in decision making regarding each nation's fiscal responsibility toward the EU. Germany's insistence on austerity after the 2008 Great Recession severely taxed many countries trying to recover from the crash. The individual members had no ability to possess any other direction other than what Germany espoused.
27
It occurs to me now, that Germany enforcing austerity on the south may well be an echo of the austerity that France imposed on Germany. The austerity which lead to the massive inflation, which lead to the rise of Hitler. T'would be a pity if Germany were to lack the introspection necessary to resist such a tendency.
4
Please reread on the history of that part of the world. Focus on events after October 1929. Specifically, look at the effects of the marked crash in the US and how this affected loans to Germany and the resulting rise in unemplyment in the latter.
The please correlate with seats of the NSDAP in the Reichstag in elections after 1929.
You may find that this had nothing to do with France.
The opportunity to get their hands on the Italian spoils system was too tempting. But plenty of opportunity to fail. These parties hate each other and have proposed a huge spending spree when Italy already has dangerously high debt levels and two thirds of it is owned by the Italians themselves. Actually it's probably the best outcome because it's going to be a train wreck as the markets speak and these clowns engage in all kinds of antics that will give Italian voters a dose of reality.
18
If the markets cut Italy out of additional loans, Italy will leave the Euro and inflate its own currency. Germans can be repaid in Lira.
3
Phyrric victory.
We are now seeing a scary resurgence of the kind of Nationalism that precipitated WW2.
Starving the beast austerity after the economic downturns of 2008 will be looked at by historians as the end of decades of stability and friendship.
Now it’s every country for themselves. I’m afraid.
115
How is a coalition government among two parties who can scarcely stand each other a "resurgence of the kind of Nationalism that precipitated WW2". Once Hitler took office, Germany was effectively under one-party rule from that point forward.
6
As one "Brett" to another, I couldn't agree with you more.
I just hope we're wrong...
3
Tragically, it was Germany's counter-good-economic-sense austerity requirements that has ended up reviving the not yet buried fascist instincts across Europe. In many ways Italy is just following Poland and Hungary with shameful U.S. encouragement in this race to the bottom. And, not unlike in WWII, the Russians are playing multi-sides of the disarray.
History says that its sane to be afraid.
10
The EU is no more considering that the UK, Italy, Greece, and Spain have abandoned their EU commitments one way or the other.
11
The EU was a good idea, and was working fairly well, until "harmonization" began to create annoyance in everyday life and the economic demands (mostly German) associated with the Euro hit home.
Europe is not a bunch of states, like we have in the US, they are a set of independent countries, with their own languages, governments, and traditions, and there is such a thing as pushing their populations too far.
A renegotiated European confederacy, allowing for greater autonomy and individuality of the various nations and peoples, will, in my opinion, be the ultimate outcome, possibly without the Euro everywhere, which is convenient but not strictly essential to European prosperity (the UK seemed to do alright as an "all-but-Euro" member, until their bout of madness, and Switzerland and Sweden don't seem to be at a disadvantage).
Better they begin their negotiations now, before pressure from a variety of governments creates an environment that is difficult to talk in.
43
The US states were independent colonies with their own monetary systems and traditions before the American Revolution and for a few years after that, as well, until the Constitution was ratified. The only thing that really unified most of the colonies was a majority of English descent.
And the US Constitution didn't account for the lower classes, non-whites, and females. Yet, here we are.
1
Interestingly, Switzerland and Sweden run their finances like Germany.
Even more interestingly, it is Germany who would likely do extremely well if it reintroduced the DM. The rest of EU, especially the South, would possibly tank in comparison to them.
The much-criticized Germans have hooked their engine to the long a heavy train of Europe and are pulling it, it seems to me, all they are asking of the other train cars to do is not put on their brakes.
It can be easily verified what the introduction of the euro did to the southern EU states' borrowing cost, very likely these came down drastically over the next 10 years. It is not Germany's fault that the borrowing by some EU member states did not go to income-producing investments, but to consumption that was not supported by the ability these economies to pay back their debts.
The Italians are (rightly) fed up with globalist elites, economic downturn and mass immigration. What many Americans don't seem to understand is that European countries are nation states; they were not founded by immigrants like US was, but as homelands to ethnic groups (Greece for Greeks, Italy for Italians, Poland for Poles, Hungary for Hungarians and so on) - people do not want mass immigration. They also misunderstand the EU. It is a group of countries, not states. So comparing Italy to Florida (!) is totally wrong (yes, someone in the comments did make this comparison).
Europeans value national sovereignty, national culture and ethnic homogeneity. People do not want faceless bureaucrats in Brussels with no homeland and connection to them lecturing them how to manage their economy, nor do they want open borders and mass immigration from countries with totally alien cultures.
Sorry progressives but Europeans prefer the nation state and keeping their national identity over some amorphous multicultural US of Europe. They prefer economic independence over the diktats of Brussels bureaucrats. They prefer border control over mass immigration. That's why Salvini and Di Maio won in Italy, that's why Orban won in Hungary, that's why the right-wing is winning in Poland, that's why Le Pen came to the second round of French elections, that's why AfD in Germany is on the rise, that's why the British voted for Brexit.
PS. Good luck to Italians. Many all over the world support you.
49
Can you please stop repeating the same point over and over? We understood. Thank you
1
The above comment is very typical of older people in Europe, but speak to young(er) people and they see themselves as European, speak multiple languages, especially English, and have a global outlook rather than a local or nationalistic one.
It's a good thing too because they will inherit Europe as the old die off.
4
I am a european. And I strongly disagree with you, Alex.
5
This was a huge victory for the President of the Republic, Mattarella. He exposed all the contradictions with the two governing parties, their hypocrisies, and, sorry to say, lies. He allowed them to form a government that will do what the Italian people want: stay in Europe while negotiating with it. Italy's problems now are 1) the two parties have made promises they cannot keep 2) they are so different it remains to be seen how they will get along 3) their choice for Prime Minister is a complete amateur who has promised to keep himself on a short leash, and, one would assume, keep his nose out of affairs -- for example the country's secret services -- he has no knowledge of, but should be a prime minister's primary responsibility. As for Mattarella, all the other parties are either too small to count for much, or have gone out of their way to self-disqualify.
12