Kudos to St. Cloud, Grand Rapids, and Green Bay. That said, with the exception of Green Bay, it's rather disingenuous to compare these cities to Decatur and Racine (not to mention the implied comparison to much larger Rust Belt cities in the Northeast and Midwest). Decatur had a population of almost 95k in 1980; Racine had a population of over 85k in 1980 (and over 95k in 1970). On the other hand, St. Cloud had about 43k people in 1980 and its current population of 67k is the largest it has ever been. Grand Rapids hasn't had a Census population of less than 175k since at least 1950.
So basically, Grand Rapids's population was (and is) 100%+ greater than Decatur and Racine...and its overall population hasn't changed much since 1980. St. Cloud grew 50%+ since 1980, but still has a smaller population than Decatur or Racine. Grand Rapids is on a different/bigger scale of city than Decatur/Racine (just like it's a lot smaller than Rust Belt cities like Detroit and Milwaukee). And St. Cloud had a lot of room for improvement and not as much to lose compared to Decatur/Racine from 1980 to now.
I'm not sure what meaningful comparisons can be made. Except for Green Bay (which is just one city), there aren't really comparable comparisons in the article. It'd be better to start with a 1970/1980 population baseline and then compare from there, both for population and economic growth metrics.
6
Totally ignoring the Right to Work legislation in all of the 'orange' dominated states and the strong unionization in all of the 'blue' dominated states.
10
By whose definition is Minnesota in the Rust Belt?
8
In only one sentence does the author mention "the virtual absence of unions" as a reason for job migration to the South and West. The elephant in the room.
20
regarding green bay, wisconsin, I suspect it is more senator Ron Johnson throwing pork and other incentives to the fox valley region, rather than anything magical happening up there. green bay is his and the GOP's constituent base in wisconsin, and money just pours into there from both the state and federal governments.
meanwhile, so many great things are happening naturally, without any funding or pork here in nearby (Dem) Milwaukee, but nobody ever talks about that because we are "urban," we "have bad schools," etc. etc.
stop drinking the Kool aid band realize that so much of our lives is driven by dirty politics!!!!!
8
"Rust belt" (in the headline), while a commonly used term, is probably not a descriptor appreciated by folks in these communities. It perpetuates negative branding.
5
I think that the phrase “Rust Belt” is offensive. Thank you for not using it! But the editors still insisted on using it in the headline title.
5
"Gosh dang it, that's a hard one." I just love the Midwest.
6
Did they vote for Trump, thinking the 1950's were coming back?
4
I think I is odd that people associate cities with an industrial with a negative connotation rather than a recognition of the immense wealth the American middle class and heartland once had. I perceive this narrative that the middle class has always been impoverished and uneducated, and tuition has always been unattainable; that regional university degrees aren’t worth mentioning. These places were/are actually highly developed areas, some of which fell on hard times. We are defining them as poor rather than acknowledging their proven ability to generate top wealth. We should be asking what policies hold America back today from the success it has demonstrated before. Including in the areas of construction, machinery, electronics, engineering - all these things we presume America doesn’t know how to do. I find it ludicrous. Look at our history. Good for the NYT to be open minded to slightly different narratives.
10
"Greater Cleveland" could easily become one of those great big orange dots. We are held back by an age old set of 21 political fiefdoms which comprise Cuyahoga County. If we could hold hands and create regional government and quit acting like the Balkans, our future is boundless. We have a skilled workforce, universities and medical care that is world known. There is plenty of land to be developed and an entire lakefront to be redeveloped. It is the petty politics of those in charge of the municipalities that I cited, that hold us all back. We can truly all prosper when we imitate our sports slogan and become "BelieveLand"
21
Since bigger is better from economies of scale and network effects, one would expect a few winners and a lot of losers. Universities, highways and waterways, and other immobile institutions will probably play a large role, especially in the longer term.
3
This is a chronicle of the race-to-the-bottom that is the root cause of the growing political unrest, both here and in Europe, which is on a trajectory towards social unrest.
And health care, including those 10,000 jobs in St. Cloud, is next, along with Higher Ed. Two of the industries with the lowest productivity growth that you might care to name. And they're both about to be "disrupted" in a massive way.
Then what?
And why are economists surprised and "puzzled" by the slowing productivity growth when we did exactly what they said to do and exported millions of manufacturing jobs that had high productivity growth and replaced them with "service sector" jobs like home health care aides and administrators at universities, and in sectors like retail, hospitality, and health care, which do not.
And we've been doing it for decades now. At scale.
Why would anybody be puzzled?
16
So are you saying that we should do without health care, higher education, and other service sector jobs? All signs are that we need more people doing those jobs in order to maintain quality of life overall. Granted, not all of the work done in these sectors is, as things are currently set up, needed, and could well be re-structured, but overall, these are areas that are desirable to have for life in the 21st century. The quandary, of course, is to figure out how we maintain overall economic health there is no way to increase the productivity associated with most of these jobs. Still, without the huge economic inequality that we have now, it's likely we could do much better with the new mix of job types than we are now doing.
2
Perhaps no one took a bigger hit than Pittsburgh and the steel mills. Pittsburgh now gleams with soft industry green spaces, and progressive thinking. No more dirty snow, no more soot on the clothesline, no more smoke.
23
Indeed, Pittsburgh has reinvented itself from its dirty, smoky days. It's actually one of the most beautiful cities in the country and now you can actually see that beauty. Newcomers often ask why rich people didn't live on the hills and slopes to enjoy the beautiful views, and old timers point out that for many years there were no views--they were hidden by the massive air pollution. However, while the city itself is doing well in most ways, the Mon Valley, extending south along the Monongahela River, that was home to so much of the steel industry is still desperately struggling. There are people working to revive the area, but so far it's very slow going.
10
And no more steel mills. America now imports its steel from Germany and Korea. Thank you, United Steel Workers, AFL-CIO.
9
Excellent description of the steel city. The Mon valley has struggle for many decades, but also has maintained a sense of pride and identity unique in the US history. Pittsburgh just stopped to decrease in population, but a real growth of population is still waiting.
2
St Cloud IS not and NEVER has been part of the "Rust Belt". It is heavily higher education, health care and ag support, not manufacturing.
21
I agree. I imagine the rust belt as sort-of a Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh corridor.
8
When manufacturing jobs are threatened by globalization, you need deflation to compete where wages, prices and values drop to become competitive again. Instead, the US Federal Reserve has some illogical allergy to deflation. The inflation manufactured by low interest rates fuels the debt based economies of real estate, higher education and health care. Higher education may help, if only you are producing scientists and engineers, not English Lit. graduates and Lawyers which US Higher Ed. tends to produce. There are dozens of old industrial towns in PA and Upstate NY where the main employers are hospitals and universities. That is not a real economy because the Hospital is there just to absorb all the Medicare and Medicaid dollars and the University is there to absorb the Student Loan dollars.
4
Looking at the map, three things stand out to me: globalization, technology, and unions.
Globalization, particularly trade with Japan and China, is going to positively impact west coast cities with close proximity to ports to Asia. It hurts those in the Great Lakes or Northeast areas.
Low-skill manufacturing jobs no longer exist. It all features technology now. So it makes sense the job markets closer to technology hubs like Seattle, California, and Texas. Only Boston bucks that trend.
Lastly, unionization. How many low-skilled union workers making $30/hour clapped as their factories shuttered in the Great Lakes and Northeast? Going on strike to demand greater and greater benefits that far exceeded market rate for their skills, and they wondered why everything moved to Mexico or China?
These three things explain Trump quite well. Trade wars with China and tearing up the TPP to fight Globalization. Efforts to help relatively low-technology industries like coal and steel. And Unions...meh, they vote Democrat anyway...
I'd suggest these Rust Belt towns dump the unions, ramp up education and job training, and focus on industries that can't easily be outsourced to China.
And America, dump the tax incentives already! You're robbing from the poor to give to the also-poor. Cities cannibalize one-another and no one wins!
3
It is a large part of the totalitarian capitalist mindset to denigrate labor. Arguably, one reason manufacturers relocated offshore is that they were forced by federal law to honor union contracts.
Since then, the Koch Brothers and ALEC and Congress have joined forces to keep wages low so people can't even afford to live int he communities they work in -- like some third-world economy.
25
"In the end, a lot comes down to luck. St. Cloud isn’t just on the Mississippi. It is on Interstate 94, U.S. 10 and the BNSF Railway — putting it within reach of many markets."
Not really. The location of a city and transportation services do not happen in a vacuum, no luck is involved. The Interstate highways were planned to serve economic centers and I'm sure Minnesota representatives at the time lobbied hard for I 94 to serve St Cloud, an existing city. Same with other highways and railroads, they are planned to supply service where there is a demand (i.e. a city like St Cloud). It's economics, not luck.
21
In the end, it is about the ability to reimagine and reinvent yourself. That takes guts, brains, talent, industriousness and an open heart. Yes, money and luck play a part. But first you have to see it. -- thegamesmenplay.com.
Globalization puts pressure on labor productivity. Places with lower-wage (non-union) labor, or higher-skill (education) labor, are the winners.
Also important are industrial technology cycles and fixed capital: it's relatively easy to move (and update) a chest-freezer plant. Much harder to replace an obsolete steel mill.
Local and state property taxes would be interesting to know. The string of losers along the NE Corridor are in notoriously highly-taxed areas. The success of tax breaks suggests this is a factor; cities with old infrastructure and high-needs populations can't afford the bidding wars.
4
Is St. Cloud an anomaly ?
Numbers please:
Population of St. Cloud 67,109 (2015)
It's medical center employs 10, 000 (per Mr. Porter)
That is NOT the typical job distribution of a city hit by globalization.
Demographics of St. Cloud
White 80.3
Black Or African American 10.7
American Indian And Alaska Native 0.8
Asian 2.9
Native Hawaiian And Other Pacific Islanders 0.0
Other Race / Two or More Races 2.6
Hispanic Or Latino (Of Any Race) 2.7
That is NOT the demographics of the average city hit by globalization
For comparison, the numbers for a city whose economy I study, Syracuse NY
Population City of Syracuse 145,000 (Metro Area 732 000)
Demographics
64% white, 25% African American, 3% Asian, 1% Native American, 2% other, 4% from two or more races. Hispanic and Latino people of any race 5%
8
St. Cloud’s industry has trended downward from the ‘70s while retail & government has boomed. (Granted there gave been increases in health care) In other words; St. Cloud’s economic health is based on debt & tax dollars.
5
What a fine, incisive report showing the need for responses to economic challenges that are specific to community on community which means state and federal assistance that is community focused.
1
" St. Cloud isn’t just on the Mississippi. "
For many decades, the northern limit of navigability on the Mississippi has NOT extended to St. Cloud (the dam at Coon Rapids, 50 miles away, was built in ~1914), so I think you may be exaggerating how much of a "lucky" major business advantage that St Cloud derives from its presence on the river. Even earlier, I believe that practical navigability that far north would have been frequently intermittent due to prolonged low water conditions elsewhere.
7
I think the writer mentioned the geography only as a rhetorical device. There is no mention of St. Cloud using the Mississippi for transport, for the reasons you correctly cite.
1
One contributor noted the importance of luck. But you do by and large make your own luck. The things I would like to see in a community I want to live and work in would be fed by relatively high taxes - spent on things like great schools and libraries, public safety and crime prevention, social programs for the young, high quality public transport and the encouragement of good architecture. Show me any city with a high quality of life and I’ll show you an economically successful one.
53
Agree. Yesterday (May 1) we had a referendum in Nashville, Tenn. on a major public transport plan featuring light rail lines, an underground tunnel that would be a hub and transfer point, buses, new technology and more. (Nashville is paralyzed by traffic and choking to death on vehicle exhaust pollution.) The public voted NO. Too expensive, they said, and they don't want tax dollars used for public transportation. They didn't like the idea of a tunnel and they insisted that no one would ever ride a train. Why, they said, hardly anybody takes the few buses we already have.
11