"Debbie Lesko, a strong supporter of vehement racists wins election in Arizona"
Arizona must be so proud of it's whole-hearted embrace of moral degeneracy.
12
Despite reading this article carefully twice, nowhere did I see any mention of the fact (which I saw online elsewhere) that Dr. Tiperneni narrowed Trump's 20-plus point margin over Clinton to a little over 5 points. This is very poor journalism. The Times should do better.
6
Another example of the pro white proclivities of the Trump Lesko voter .
Would these sunbelt retirees vote for a dark skinned person ?
7
If that daffy woman can win by 6%, the Democrats don't have a chance to win the House in November, so I don't know what they're celebrating about.
2
This election was so close, I wish the DNC had supported Dr Tipirneni.
3
A wakeup call for the dems. November isn't going to be a walk in the park.
6
Waiting to see what Michelle Goldman has to say about this, given her earlier op-ed.
2
Prediction: Arizonans will soon experience buyers' remorse. To see a test case in GOP economic and social policies, you need look no further than Brownback's Kansas. His reckless tax cuts and absurd "trickle down" assurances, have destroyed the state. Next, Kansans will elect a Democrat who will clean up the mess left behind by GOP policies. Lather, Rinse, Repeat....
7
Something missing here about horseshoes and hand grenades.
2
What a shame, electing such an un-representative member to decide your fate. Democracy feels dejected.
4
Gerrymandering works!
7
The enabling narrative on the right is that Democrats have no message except "not trump." Democrats are not "speaking" to people's concerns, they have no "message." Republicans succeeded in the last national election in tarring Hilary with an "obsession" for "identity politics," and transgender bathrooms. But a random sampling of Hilary's speeches would reveal that those issues were miniscule in comparison to her expressed concerns and policy proposals for the economy, international affairs, social safety net, climate change. The irony, of course, is that the Russian puppet "won" the slave-owner appeasing Electoral College by less than 80k votes because of identity politics--but it was White identity, so it's not an "issue."
The corporate media is enabling them again as we head to the mid-term elections; "Democrats better get a message other than 'impeach trump!" "The Democrats need to 'speak' to the average citizen!" But if you listen to Democrats, there's a real disparity between what they're actually saying--better jobs, economic competitiveness, the scam tax reform, social safety net, education spending, union preservation, climate change--and the echoing drum beat from Fox and the right-wing propaganda machine, i.e., "The Democrats don't have a message!" Listen. Get it from the horse's mouth, not from its other end.
6
Another sad example of the underlying fact that Americans do not vote under any circumstances.
Let me turn you off by exposing you to some simple math.
1.There are roughly 750,000 people per Congressional District.
2. On average 70% of those are eligible to vote, or about 525,000.
3. The total vote in this election was around 174,000, let's say 1/3 of the potential.
As Jane Jacobs pointed out, it takes about 40 years to change an embedded social norm, so don't look for any improvement any time soon.
We are politically naive, ignorant, and unaware. No Democracy can survive such abuse for long.
9
I hardly know where to begin.
This is not a football game fought at home.Each and every one of these elections brings us to the future, with wins and losses counting, every time.
Let's get the amazing fundraiser, Nancy Pelosi, to raise and send funds. Every time. Otherwise, NP, step aside for the good of the country.
We need a Winston Churchill, who rallied the Brits in its darkest hour, against the worst possible odds.
Just as an aside, I hope I see the day when that irritating Bower smile gets wiped off her face.
2
It’s funny. Come November, Conor Lamb won’t even have a district to run in. His win against a wan Republican candidate in PA was moot.
And yet his race, in a now defunct district as reliably and historically red as this one in AZ, will have garnered probably 20 times the media attention that this race just did and will. Apparently, there are few tea leaves to be read here. But there were crates and crates to be had out of the races that have gone well for the Democrats, in easy environments like VA and NJ, and against an amazingly awful GOP candidate like the child molester in AL.
Conclusion? The media has an agenda and a narrative. Stories that don’t serve it, don’t get told as much. Similarly, this blue wave business is seriously overhyped. I went through it in GA’s 6th. Seeing all of those woke suburbanites knocking on doors, thinking they were going to elect a Democrat, was one of the sadder things I’ve seen this year.
My hope is that after the blue wave is revealed to be a ripple, that progressives don’t go off and do something dumb or tragic like hurting themselves. That gentleman who self immolated in Central Park earlier this month was truly tragic, and I genuinely fear for other progressives’ mental well being. There’s more to life than politics. Set the bar low, and don’t count on a great November.
3
52-47 is the typical spread when Republicans rig elections. See Wisconsin.
6
Clearly the DNC needs to start showing up for it's own candidates.
5
Democrats need to figure out why people don't bother to vote and speak directly to those non- or seldom-voters. What issue or issues might catch their attention and give them something to vote for? I can't help but think one of them is Medicare for All or some version of single-payer health insurance. The high cost of private insurance affects all age groups, all regions of the country, whites as well as others, employers and workers alike, and all but the 1% income groups. Another turnout motivator might be student debt forgiveness and tuition-free college and vocational education. That affects both young adult graduates and parents of students and taps into the American Dream of rising economically and socially by personal initiative and effort.
2
Democrats have figured out how to get people to the polls, Hillary after all beat Trump by 3 million votes. She and Barack Obama have the most votes ever recorded in presidential elections. What we need to figure out is exactly why conservative votes count more than liberal ones. 40% of this century's presidential elections have been 'won' by the person with the least amount of votes. Go figure.
5
According to the AZ Dept of State, turnout was 38.3%: http://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/6/0
So two thirds of registered voters could not be bothered to vote. Voting is too much trouble, doesn't matter, I can't be bothered.
This is a dismal turnout, both for democracy and for Democrats.
Americans don't require Russians to destroy our system; we are destroying it ourselves by refusing to vote.
8
I wasn't really surprised when I read "National Democrats, however, stayed away from the race, deducing that a district that has sent only Republicans to Congress for four decades was out of reach." I was annoyed.
This is typical of National Democrats and the DNC. If you go to the National Democrat Party's web site - you'll read "ELECT DEMOCRATS - We can take back Congress in 2018. Help Democrats win seats in 2018." Then, there's an icon to click on that says "I'm IN."
Too bad the former Labor Secretary Thomas Perez, Chairman of the DNC, didn't click on "I'm In," and help
Hiral Tipirneni, a physician and first-time candidate to win a seat in the House Of Representatives.
5
You have to love the spin/propaganda. Leave it to the GOP to get excited about winning an election that they were expected to win anyway. The margin of victory should have been double. They should be concerned that this was not more of a rout.
5
With Obama gone, the most unifying element for GOP fealty is gone. Dems actually have a shot .. but, that will require a bit of backbone. I don't see it yet.
3
Given the Right Wing Supreme Court and the continuing influence of White Supremacy, I'm not sure the country can be saved, regardless of Congressional elections. Trump and the GOP have pushed the country back to 1950, if not earlier.
3
A single-digit Republican victory in this district is still bad news for them, especially given the overwhelming numbers of old people who voted. The AZ oldsters might love Trump, but they can’t be sure any more that he will protect their Social Security and Medicare, not to mention the VA if they are veterans. Looks to me as if the situation will only get worse for the Republicans by November, unless the Democrats (as in 2016) find another way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
4
Once again the National Democrats played it cautious, gave up instead of fighting and supporting their candidate and lost by a small margin. Now they see it was possible to win that seat if they had fought for it and thereby sent a message ahead to the midterm elections... Democrats don't seem to learn.
3
Something tells me the DCCC (the funding arm of the Democratic Establishment) are none too happy... that Tipirneni did as well. The DCCC is not in the habit of supporting women, people of color, or those with overly progressive views, it undercuts their belief that that the only viable candidates are white males with views that are barely distinguishable from Republicans. With a series of bitterly contested primaries coming up pitting grassroots, female, progressives and/or people of color against the usual vanilla favored by the DCCC, Tipirneni's relative success is an ominous sign.
1
How ironic that Lesko was running on a platform of ‘reduce taxes’ at the same time that AZ and many other state’s teachers are going on strike to protest chronic funding reductions that resulted from chronic tax reduction schemes. Well, that district has part of Phoenix NW suburbs and LOTS of retirees, so apparently they don’t care much about education. Why don't retirees care about education? Certainly many of them have grandchildren......
5
"As Representative Conor Lamb of Pennsylvania did in a special election last month, she [Tipirneni] offered herself as a moderate who would not support Ms. Pelosi for House speaker."
True, the GOP spent gobs of money as usual, but when you have to throw the leader of your party under the bus to get votes, well, that doesn't sound like a "Blue wave" to me.
Bottom line: "Nothing to see here folks, keep moving."
2
I grew up in this district (northwest Glendale). Even as a kid, I recognized that I was in the minority, politically-speaking. Casual racism runs rampant here, and the more liberal areas of the Valley not-so-affectionately refer to Glendale as "Glentucky." As a southern California resident now, I'm acutely aware now of the cultural divide between life here and life in Glendale, Arizona. Although I still enjoy visiting friends and family there, I have little desire to spend much time in my old stomping grounds. Sometimes you have to leave the place you grew up in to really understand it.
That said, congratulations to Ms. Tipirneni for a MUCH closer election result than I ever would have expected. Maybe it's changing after all. Let's see what happens in November...
14
Amazed national Democrats stayed away from this contest because it was lost cause. They have insulted their own candidate and her supporters.
3
The story here once again appears not to be the front of a Democratic wave but the small percentage of registered voters who actually voted, thus leaving the November 2018 election entirely up for grabs by whichever party can mobilize those who stayed home today.
Unless the Democrats get around to crafting a message other than "not-Trump", and unless they can field charismatic, qualified candidates, the majority that did not vote will continue to sit home, and the Democrats will lose the opportunity that 2018 provides. It is much easier to motivate a non-voter than it is to convert a voter.
A highly Recommended Times Pick comment says, "I am one of those who think 'not Trump' is really all [Democrats] need to win. I believe women and millennials would walk over glass to vote out Republicans who refuse to pass sensible gun safety laws and fund education." Unfortunately, the commenter makes the mistake of confusing hopes with available empirical evidence to the contrary. If what she says were the case, over half the people would not be sitting out these elections, nor would polls indicate women and millenials are split, even if they do predominantly support Democrats.
13
Another blue-eyed, blonde woman who doesn't care if she has control of her own body or life. I wonder if she realizes she has been used and will be thrown under the bus by her "owners" the moment she does something they don't agree with?
Thanks, again, to our illustrious supreme court justices who pledged allegiance to corporate/catholic America by saying money is speech, corporations are people and that money does not need to be limited in our political landscape. They have done more than any institution to destroy democracy in America.
25
The usual sickening supporter of Mr. Trump among Republican electoral contestants. What is the problem with the voters in that district?
21
I am just surprised voters in that district voted for the Democratic contender in such a strong showing. 5 point win in that district is colossal. It may not have put a Democrat in Congress...but it delieved the message just the same. This is good news for all Democrats..everywhere. I know this district , is is conservative,mostly white and older. They are either retired or nearing retirement. That demographic has been voting Republican and in Phoenix..it had been a solid Republican. Now it is permeable.
4
Don't forget the extreme Gerrymandering that create district boundaries that favor the incumbents. I am republican but I am disgusted by the chicanery undermining the democratic process. Given Russian interference, corruption, obstruction, and spinelessness, it seems that our free market of ideas is hardly functioning.
It used to be that whether democrat or republican the Whitehouse was occupied by someone who could think and (mostly) acted in our national interest, however misguided. But not this time. Self dealing, dirty dealing, and corruption has reached new heights and a large portion of the electorate isn't bothered with how obvious it is.
We have seen the enemy and the enemy is us.
5
But in a sign of Democratic enthusiasm in this midterm election year, Ms. Lesko won by only about five points.
------------
How mischievous! The turnout and enthusiasm among voters of all persuasion are not the same during special elections and elections in which presidency is not at stake.
You call it Democratic enthusiasm; I call it Democratic desperation.
Blue wave, my foot.
9
Wait until Nov 6 and then you can say that. Or not. Bigly!
2
The district has a large number of uneducated white voters, or perhaps more commonly known as "bigots." The fact that the challenger did so well in a predominantly racist district does not look good for Republicans.
4
Knowing my fellow Arizonians, this most likely had more to do with her name than her politics. Pure prejudice in play... If the Dem candidate was named Jane Walters, she would have won... Yes, our state is full of ignoramuses, but so is yours. And that is the problem...
23
Pogo was correct. Look in the mirror USA.
The Democrats are finding it hard to put together a platform for the mid-terms. They are running against a president who is at a 50% approval with 99% negative press. They are running against record low unemployment, a great economy and illegal immigration down by 75%. Illegal immigrants charged with violent crimes are finally being rounded up and deported. The Democrats are fighting an uphill battle with a platform of BLM, hands up don't shoot, supporting illegal immigration, hating cops and veterans and trying to overturn the popular tax cut.
6
At the very least, the mountains of money Republicans are being forced to spend on their mediocre nominees indicates just how much money they are able to part with to dominate the nation. Will they run out of gas and pomp?
16
Not a chance
1
I do wish the NYT writers would lead with the facts before wandering off into the backstory. In the first several paragraphs of this story, the results of the election were not mentioned. The first paragraph should have contained the names of both candidates and the percentage and number of votes each received. After establishing the basics, then feel free to talk about the disparities in levels of contributions to each campaign, etc. But please start with the basic facts.
25
The only people in the country who expected this to be a close race is the media. The rest of us, the ones who despise Trump and his cowardly Republican sycophants, knew better. We also happen to represent 60% of the country and this is going to show up drastically for the Republicans this November.
11
I was surprised it was this close. The two candidates will most likely have a rematch in November. Hopefully, the DNC can get their act together and be supportive of the Democrat candidate. But I doubt they will. But who knows, Leskos' ties to Trump just might be her undoing by then.
14
I would really like to know what are they cheering about? Can't be for a better America.
5
Lesko won 52% of the vote in a district that Donald won by 21%! At the very least, Democrats are making headway. Arizona is deep red, mostly white, people from the Mid-West who fear "others" but the demographics are changing....stay tuned.
17
It’s not long before the Democrats lose a life long lsupporter like me. I am ashamed that they let Dr Tipirneni down by not funding her campaign with full force thinking there was no chance for democrats to win the Arizona eith district. There was a clear chance of victory for the dems. They made the same mistake Hillary Clinton made ...... took things for granted. In my profession as a doctor I have never given up on any patients. I’m ashamed of my party. I will not send any donation to the party for a year.
13
Disappointed that Lesko won.
Really irked that the Dems did precious little to support this stellar Dem candidate.
Sick of the senior bashing. Stop it.
Sick of the identity cards being played. Stop it.
Dems, I registered independent for the first time in my life, because you cannot seem to come up with a set of strategies and tactics to win. This candidate should have won. Stop looking at stats and odds, and for heaven's sake, MAKE THE CASE. Bill Clinton used polling effectively. And lost the soul of the Dem party. And polling is not leadership. People want leadership. FDR, Lincoln.
So stop this losing strategy. It is time for "ALL IN". You have to find and articulate a vision. And get a backbone. And figure out how to unite the nation with all our terrible shortcomings. We also have strengths; What are they?
13
What has happened to the Midwest I grew up in? What used to be the populist home of America has become a reactionary haven.
The former land of farmer coops, the organizations responsible for the very survival of snowbirds' forefathers-and-mothers, now echoes with the disheartening, "What's in it for me?"
Shame on Minnesota and Wisconsin.
9
I'm curious about the statement "demonstrated the resilience of the Republican base." Trump carried this district by 21 points. Lesko carried it by 6 at best (I've also read by 5 points, but let's not quibble).
To lose three-quarters of your advantage doesn't strike me as "resilience". Had Ms. Lesko carried the day by a single vote, would the Times have called it a sign of "resilience"? I fear the answer is "yes".
7
All that work and support from the Republicans, and she still barely won. Good luck in November...
11
Any vote for the GOP in any district is a complicit endorsement of DJT.
This is a major reason why midterm election go against the existing administration in the majority of cases. This is a referendum vote like it or not.
AZ blew it on this one and will feel the negative impacts long after DJT is gone.
4
This is a huge loss for Democrats who led in the polls. Once again the GOP outperformed the polls and won the contest.
4
Actually this is a good thing. The fact that that they won by such a small margin in a district they should have taken easily, should terrify them.
2
If 2.6% of the voters in this election had voted the other way, it would have been a tie. That should terrify the GOP. In a district that is old, white, retired, mid-western and military, to only win by that margin is alarming, to say the least. If the Republicans can only eke out a 2.6% win in the reddest of red districts, imagine how they'll do in any area that is remotely competitive? I am so looking forward to the mid-terms!
8
Given the political climate in our country, it is incomprehensible that any woman would vote for a Republican. That being said, AARP members would be smart to follow the GOP attacks on Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid, and protect themselves by supporting Democrats who support these programs. Why can we always count on people to vote against their own best interests?
9
If you moved to Arizona to retire, you're not one of the seniors who depend on Social Security and Medicare. They have plenty money, both from pensions and investments, to cover all their retirement needs and being Republican voters, they think everybody else could have as much as they do if only they had worked as hard and invested wisely.
10
Not so. No one can afford to be without Medicare. If you’re eligible, your private insurance will refuse to cover you. Therefore, Medicare is essential to everyone over sixty-five. A traumatic illness can wipe you out...it’s easy to climb into the millions in hospital charges, and you also need supplemental insurance to cover the remaining twenty percent. Don’t be fooled, most people would not survive financially.
1
AARP supported the Democrats Affordable Care Act that took $400 billion out of Medicare. Some seniors who are aware of this have left AARP and joined AMAC Association of Mature American Citizens.
Let Ms. Lesko enjoy her 8 months of service to the people of the 8th District in a Congress where nothing will happen. Dems wisely held off wasting money to boost turnout in a special, in favor of raising it in a general when the electorate will be younger and bluer. Dr. Tipirneni's team can use these results to more effectively focus her resources in the more important race to come this fall.
9
Pray tell; why wasn't the electorate younger and bluer this time around?
Wow, by 5 points, in Trump country against a first time candidate. The Republicans are having a hard time getting people to the polls to vote for their stale ideas and slogans. A candidate like Conor Lamb, a war veteran with charisma would have won that seat. The key to November for Dems is attractive candidates, preferably war veterans because the Republican bus has three flats and is out of gas.
4
A loss is a loss whether it's by 5 or 25. It's still a loss. Period.
While the RNC was doing its' job, the DNC was sitting on its hands, again, conceding defeat even before the election andwasting Ms Tipirneni's grassroots effort. On top of the DNC's lack of enthusiasm, the national Democratic party still has no coherent message, other than "We're not Trump!"
Maybe Trump's antics and the grassroots energy stirring in the country will be enough in 2018 and 2020, despite the DNCMaybe not.. 2016 was a gimme for the Democrats, but it couldn't generate a clear message for where it stood. I don't seen an inevitable Blue Wave in 2018 or 2020. I hope I'm wrong.
5
The "future of the district" will surely be determined when the unfortunate choice of the Trumpian Ms. Lesko is corrected by a smart, courageous Democrat, Hiral Tipirneni, who will soundly defeat Lesko in the Fall. Wait for it.
8
Just read Fox news headlines for today - "Dem Platform develops - Free Money!".
There are many many things that need to happen to turn the Titanic of republican evil double-dealing.
6
We winter in her district. I'm counting the days till we go back to CO. It will be interesting to see the future of this district. There are a lot of younger families moving to this area for the "good" (for AZ anyways) schools. There are a number of 55+ plus communities so it will always lean red. I predict 10 years from now AZ will lean blue.
15
I don't believe being 55+ always means leaning red.
Kerry in 2004 found greatest support from 18-30 and people who were 75+.
The Greatest Generation, who lived through the Depression and fought in World War II, were a fairly liberal bunch who saw that government could do good things.
Just cause the current crop of oldies loved Eisenhower and Nixon instead of the New Deal just means this too will pass.
8
Oh hey, over 55 doesn't always lean red. Have some hope.
3
Dr Tipirneni ran on a platform focussed on public schools and teachers in a District populated by retirees from the Mid West.Make sense to anyone?
14
If you read the comment from MyDog Lucky it does:
We winter in her district. I'm counting the days till we go back to CO. It will be interesting to see the future of this district. There are a lot of younger families moving to this area for the "good" (for AZ anyways) schools. There are a number of 55+ plus communities so it will always lean red. I predict 10 years from now AZ will lean blue.
3
I am a retiree, from the Midwest, live in the next district and support public education. The AZ Democratic Party is so out of touch it is incredible! I live in Schwikert's District and for the past few elections no one, yes no one from the Democratic Party ran against him. So, please look at the big picture, versus blaming a specific age and regional group. By the way, I am from Chicago.
4
Education always makes sense no matter what age you are.
2
I know Democrats think they are going to sweep the House.
I predict that immigration will take center-stage as we get close to the election. I further predict that the Republican party will take a hard line against illegal immigration.
And they will retain the House when they do so.
Trump won because of illegal immigration. I caution my fellow Democrats- we will have to make a choice: protecting illegal immigrants or getting any of the other policies we want.
While I feel for those in DACA there are many other Democratic policies I support. This country, and its citizens, must come first- or we will lose another election.
21
So Lesko won only 52.6% of the vote.
The Democrats are bleating ecstatically about a near miss.
The Republicans kept 100% of the House seat.
Keep bleating, Democrat party. The Republican Representative holds 100% of her district's vote in the House no matter how much the Democrat party bleats.
7
Come back to us in November.
3
Donald won by 21% in that district....don't be so sure that there won't be Democratic shift! It's happening!
5
All politics is local. The Democratic candidate substantially over performed in Arizona's 8th district due to an energized electorate on the left. More money might have helped but the DCCC isn't flush right now and needs to consider where its money has the best chance of winning. Also, sending national Democrats might do more harm than good. Would it increase Democratic turnout more than it riles up disillusioned Republicans? I'm not so sure, particularly in an off cycle election where Republicans typically have more motivated voters.
5
Are we to believe these Trump supporters are in the 1/4%? Why aren’t the Dems unable to get across that Social Security and Medicare are under attack? Is it meaningless to these retirees? Don’t they notice their grandchildren are likely to inherit the wind?
“All shine, and no substance! Bert, whenever you see something bright, shining, perfect-seeming—all gold, with purple spots—look behind the paint!”
6
I used to often have breakfast at a diner in deep Red southern New Mexico frequented by retirees, nearly all white and ex-military. Before the 2016 election, conversations would largely revolve around retirement benefits, which everyone there felt entitled to get the most of. Shortly after the election, I started to hear the now familiar talk of "those people" and the open, gratuitous use of the N word. I think that swath cuts through AZ. Since the food at the diner was awful anyway I found someplace else to eat.
4
The attack on Social Security and Medicare seems to be coming from liberals who are claiming Social Security and Medicare are under attack. So, how about not yelling "Wolf!!!"? You sound silly.
Teperneni did run on a platform of saving Medicare and social security.
We can’t underestimate the fact that too many Republicans see their vote as a poke in the eyes of “liberals” rather than an exercise in civic duty.
It’s clear that they’re willing to suffer so they can enjoy this perversion.
4
Politics nowadays is expensive. It isn't reasonable to expect any party to throw money at races they have little chance of winning. Republicans are the party of the rich and are always going to have more money than Democrats, particularly if a candidate looks like losing. The real answer is to restrict or eliminate out of state contributions and advertising. That would put a dent in Citizens United and have a good chance of being accepted by the states rights proponents on the Supreme Court.
4
Those older voters still clutching GOP buttons will all change their tune, once republican leaders quietly start trying to “rebalance” to debt by cutting social security and Medicare.
21
The Arizona Republican Party, once the party of mainstream conservatives like Jeff Flake and John McCain, is now the alt-right party of Joe Arpaio, Donald Trump, and Debbie Lesko. Congratulations, Arizona Republicans, on your success in speeding up your eventual self-immolation.
17
Flake and McCain are reactionaries not moderates
1
And they both stood up to Trump.
Don't dismiss them, both are people of a lot of backbone and common sense.
Again, the DNC leans to the right.
Again the DNC is wrong.
8
Last night I watched as CNN proclaimed that President won the Arizona state vote in 2016 by 21%. I instantly knew this was absurd and probably an innocent error rather than fake news but who knows? He(Trump) won the congressional district by 21%. One thing not factored in,but critically important, in special elections is that they are in "open seats"i.e. There is no incumbent. The value of incumbency and name recognition is huge so ia close race is more likely. I wouldn't read too much into any of these special elections.
5
Insufficient school funding, GOP hysteria over border security (we don't really need that wall) and changing demographics (increasing Latino population, decreasing media age) issues that will determine whether AZ goes from red to blue. Focus people...
6
It's a shock to see this 59 year old, posting signs around the valley that look like she is in her 20's. Pretty telling that she's just another Arizona career politician, and that those people in Sun City will vote for anyone who has an R behind their name, regardless of their productivity.
9
True! Those seniors are against schools, live in fear .....just wait the GOP's main supporters are on the banana peel!
3
Mr. Mueller please investigate. The only way the republicans could have won is with Russian collusion.
7
How is that "hope in Arizona" working out?
2
As Bill Maher states, “Blue Wave” brought To you by the same folks who gave you Hillary Clinton’s “Inevitable”
11
1 million dollars still buys the votes of lots of old white people.
18
I live here and saw plenty of Lesko’s ads. She’s as vile as you most likely expect she is.
19
This was a special election to fill a vacant seat. Roll Call reports: "Lesko and Tipirneni could face off again in November. Both have said they plan to file to run again for a full term. The primary for that race is Aug. 28." Let's give Ms. Hiral Tipirneni a little more support in the Fall.
24
Please continue the Liberal meltdown and see how many elections you are going to win.
12
Spin, spin, spin.
If that is the game the so-called "reporters" for the Times wish to play, and it clearly is, then try this on for size: The fact that Trump won the district by 20 points whereas Lesko won by "only" 5 reflects the comparative strength of Trump as a candidate, compared to Lesko, and especially compared to Clinton.
In the final analysis, it is nearly always about the candidate, stupid.
5
"And any hopes Ms. Tipirneni had to win outside support may have faded this month when a local TV station reported that she had not practiced medicine since 2007 and had settled a malpractice lawsuit with a woman who blamed her for contracting tetanus."
Found this part of the story particularly enlightening. Republicans often win by tearing down an opponent, even when there really isn't anything there to tear down (Swift Boat anyone?). I imagine many ER doctors get sued for malpractice and I am positive most insurance companies MAKE them settle. The fact that she is still a licensed physician and does cancer research instead of emergency medicine is somehow reason to believe that she is less worthy than that public leech Debbie Lesko? I'm sure it played into the decisions of the senility-racked brains of those Arizona voters. Getting very tired of 70-year-olds with no concern of the future making decisions in the voting booth that adversely affect my life. Come on people, they are not the majority. Others need to get of their butts and VOTE!!!!!
15
Are you saying that Hillary Clinton has a senility wracked brain? Maybe that explains Benghazi and the missing e-mails. Yet, 68 Million of y'all voted for her. Strange.
2
Too bad. Last I checked it was still legal for those seventy and older to vote. Are you proposing to limit their franchise? And why are you so sure that they are against your interests? And if they are, why are you so sure that you are right.
A physician who defends the wall? Her brain must be split into pieces. I go to bed a sad woman. BUT we will prevail. Vote this November and tell as you know to Vote.
6
Here's the basic problem- in the last sentence, the writer sums up the article with the idea that it is conservatives vs "the left." And it is definitely not. It is utra-conservatives vs literally everyone else. Is it scare-baiting or just on-the-one-hand-and-on-the-other-hand lazy journalism? A candidate who is too conservative to support Pelosi for speaker cannot be described as "left." So please, stop doing that, NYT.
6
"But unlike Mr. Lamb’s Pittsburgh-area seat — which includes an array of vote-rich, upscale suburbs — the Arizona district is full of AARP-eligible snowbirds, reliably Republican Mormons and military families who work at nearby Luke Air Force Base."
Here you go again, liberals.
Lamb's voters were from "upscale" suburbs, while Lesko's voters were "AARP-eligible snowbirds".
Is being a not-upscale, AARP-eligible snowbird now the ultimate insult from liberals?
Did Hillary Clinton write that sentence?
6
What's with retirees? I have mine and don't care what happens to the rest of you? They would do well to show a bit more compassion to their younger fellow citizens, who are in debt because of "entitlements" for seniors and their own college loans. Contrary to popular belief, no one is entitled. What we each get far exceeds what is paid into the system because when the programs were designed, they never anticipated people living into their 70s, 80's 90s and beyond with regularity. At the time social security was developed, few lived past 65. I do not propose cutting these benefits but I do feel they need to be adjusted for the modern age. Social Security needs to be taxed on full earnings, not just the first $118,000.00, and those earning over one million need to be charged a "millionaire tax". That would make this benefit sustainable for future generations. And while we're at it, a bit more thanks to the younger workers who pay for current retirees benefits is also in order. A good place to start is for older voters to vote for candidates who also help the interests of the younger generations. They would do well to remember that you reap what you sow.
29
That district has a lot of retirees - but not your usual type. Much more upper income retirees than on average.
5
Tax and spend. The mantra of the left.
1
What? Tax the people who make over a million $$ a year? You'd be taxing the "job creators!!!" Don't you realize that they are more important than the rest of us? If they have to pay more into the system, they'll have less to invest in their tax free holdings in the Cayman Islands. Impossible!!
2
The article was clearly written ahead of time in anticipation that it would fulfill last week's breathless description of Ms. Tipirneni...then hastily rescribbled after the results became clear. Another extremely well-funded woman Democrat falls to voter opinion.
8
All the pre-election coverage I read described the race as unexpectedly close, but also underscored that it would be a tremendous long shot for Ms. Tipirneni to win. This article also points out that Ms. Tiprnenini was not receiving a lot of support from the DNC. This was a grassroots effort. And the real importance of this race is what it might portend about the McSally race, which is not going to be centered on an enclave of starched conservatives.
20
Incorrect, the articles from last week acknowledged that the Democratic candidate was a long shot but that the race would be close. Opinion and facts = two different things.
10
I believe you are incorrect. The republican candidate outspends the democratic candidate 4 to 1 and wins the election by 5 points in a district that the president carried by 20 less than 18 months ago and you conclude the article was “hastily scribbled” after a “breathless” previous article noting polling indicated a close race? Really??
13
so dncc didn't participate and yet that wonderful candidate closed the gap from 25% down to 5% and still counting.... the republicans spent more than a million and the doctor had only $250k .... that is a win in and of itself... keep draining the republicans wallets and DNCC maybe you should try a little harder..you gave up on something and were proven wrong she would have won this with some support from you
30
From the article: "Ms. Tipirneni ... outraised Ms. Lesko in what was the first high-profile congressional election since 2016 between two women."
5
Dr. Tipirneni did outraise Ms. Lesko; but then the RNC and others poured ca. $900,000 into the campaign, greatly outstripping the resources available to Tipirneni. "[T]he Republican National Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund, the primary House Republican super PAC, each poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into the race. The investment proved critical in what became an unexpectedly close race."
Nate Cohn tweeted that this is probably the worst GOP special election result yet, despite Tiperneni’s loss.if Sinema were to do this well in AZ-08 in November, he’d expect her to win the state by double digits.
9
Isn’t he still waiting for the HRC landslide???
3
The season of mean is still in for the United States! This Arizona election is not an anomaly either! And in an adjacent article comparing our present time to the 1980’s is off the mark! There are few similar cultural comparisons ! And there were no Shark Tanks, just as Ronald Reagan, G-d rest his soul, was essentially a benevolent statesman, not a paper thin bully and gutter embracer, like Donald Trump!
2
Congratulations Ms. Lesko!
8
Expect a repeat of 2016 this November.
7
If National Democrats were indifferent, could not care to bestir themselves, I would not think much future awaits. Perhaps they are under-the-table trumps.
4
Shame on the DNC. They missed the boat again.
17
Good showing by Ms. Hiral Tipirneni. There is another election in November. Ms. Hiral Tipirneni could run for Senator Flake's seat or take on Debbie Lesko again.
Congratulations are in order to Ms. Hiral Tipirneni. Thank you for your effort.
40
As usual, the New York Times called this election saying it was going to go decisively to the Democrats, as we can see, the country is still leaning quite right despite what day in the anti-Trump people say.
Well done Debbie!
5
NYT predicted a Lesko win. The question was whether it would be tighter than Trump’s 21-point win.
33
No they did no such thing. They predicted Lesko would win by 7-10% in one article I read. In the end it was less than 5% - in a district that Trump won by 21%.
8
I'd suggest you go back and read the previous coverage, which in fact predicted Lesko's victory. It's an easy to verify fact that the NYTimes predicted Republican win, albeit rightly predicted a solid showing from Tipirneni. Not to engage in vitriol, but your false claims are par for the course.
16
Dang! Dr. Tipirneni is a great person. We were residents in Emergency Medicine together, many moons ago. She is a hard worker, really smart, quick, fair and honest and tough.
From what I've read about Ms Lesko, her policies strike me as regressive, and honestly, anybody who is liked by, or likes Trump, is suspect in my book. Between walls, Betsy DeVos worshipping, and support of Trump, Ms Lesko is not going to help the 8th, Arizona, USA or the planet. Dang.
34
Ooops, I meant Arizona doesn't have a border with TX.
Wow!
This was not meant to be this close for the GOP.
The DNC is rubbing its hands together in glee at this result.
15
An endorsement for the Trump agenda?
I'm one of those so-called "old people" living in the district. No doubt the majority of the population out here are "reliably republicans". BUT, I and may others, are NOT repubs and voted for Hiral...to such a degree that she lost by 6 points. That is an outstanding achievement. Hiral says she will run again in November against Lesko. I hope she does and want her to know that she can count on my support. I intend to get out the vote among the older generation in the Sun Cities area to help her win. Maybe it takes an older person to convince another older person about the things that matter most to us, namely protecting Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, the Dreamers, public education and safer schools. These are the issues that effect and concern the older generation.
41
Please do speak to your neighbors, Ann. We need you. It is time for the tide to turn in Arizona and it can only do so with all of us standing together. We must take our country back from the bigotry and hate of the current administration.
8
Good for Ms. Ann whomever. True, there are many in retirement age who despise right-wing Republican candidates, not to mention the disgusting-in-all-ways Mr. Trump.
1
False positive.
Hardly an issue or a surprise.
1
How a woman could support Trump is puzzling to me. Oh I forgot about racism, never mind.
23
This does not show the residence of the Republican base. It shows their deep anger, hatred and bitterness as well as their love of their own ignorance.
It also shows the inability of the Democrats to organize and bring a message of hope, dignity and justice.
The Republicans thrive on ignorance. They continually convince the least educated and least able to protect themselves from charlatan political actors. The message of the Republicans is corrupt, evil, racist and tragically believable.
Its time for Democrats to confront the Republicans on their own terms and with the same passionate fervor. Republicans peddle fear, loathing and hatred.
Its time for truth, justice and equality to prevail. Where are the voices of the Democrats?
13
Sadly, I think Ms. Tipirneni's name and complexion worked against her in this demographic. The only way the Democrats are going to overcome the incipient racism in this country is to work very very hard to get out all of their voters.
10
If the GOP-base going forward is going to be comprised primarily of aging white people, then they are 1) Either a party without a political future or 2) They are a party that will increasingly embrace authoritarianism in a desperate bid to hold on to power any way they can. I predict we'll see option #2 become the M.O. of the GOP as we go along because option #1, making a real effort to reach out to non-whites and younger people, will be a non-starter to the majority of current Republicans.
11
So basically voting Republican means the following:
- I don't care that our country is awash in guns that will in many cases be used to kill innocents in crowded spaces. And then be sold illegally by gunshow connections to ill educated intercity youth so they kill themselves.
- I don't care that Climate Change is ravaging the world and every year affects our farmers, forests, coastlines and poor people with horrible and horribly predictable results.
- I don't care of all the illegal and unethical things Donald Trump does and has done. He might make me and my patrons even richer - And keep out people who do not look like me.
- I don't care that America is the only country that doesn't have an affordable healthcare system. And in fact has no healthcare for many many people whatsoever. I don't care.
- I care that the military has more money that all 9 of the next heavily militarized countries combined; even at the expense of education, public safety, infrastructure, healthcare, innovation and environmental safety.
- I don't care about you. I figure that if I only really care about myself that you too may somehow do well. But again, I really don't care. It's about me and my kind.
That about sums it up from my point of view. I've been on the planet for 58 years and have never been surprised by what Republicans do for themselves.
32
good riddance to Lesko. Her reckless votes in the state legislature against education, for a wacky school voucher system and for tax cuts helped bring about the crisis we have in Arizona's public schools.
9
The close local races just show how utterly terrible a candidate Hillary really was, and proves that the 2016 election was a rejection of the Clintons and their unethical politics rather than any kind of indictment of the party itself.
6
Again a quick reminder for our Republican friends: Hillary Clinton was not on the ballot in AZ and she is not running for office. Be smart!
5
I would argue that Hillary was no worse than any Republican that Republicans would have gladly voted for and 1,000 times better than Trump.
What I see is a real visceral hate for Hillary, Obama, and now Nancy Pelosi.
It is done through right-wing media.
I have neighbors who still believe the Clintons had Vince Foster murdered.
8
And yet, she won by 3+million votes. Facts are inconvenient things for some.
9
The Democrats should have thrown some support behind Tipirneni; she's just the kind of public face the party needs, and a victory in Arizona would really help to build momentum over the coming months. If Democrats want to win - and I want them to - they need to work harder and not just rely on collecting low-hanging fruit. Sun City is full of older, relatively undereducated white people who are easily swayed. The Democrats could have won this... if they tried.
10
All those snow birds, driven out of their blue state homes by taxes, voted for the Republican - why is this a surprise. Wait till 2020 when the trapped middle class in Blue States has been feeling the loss of SALT deductions for two years. Trump will win a second term in a land slide.
4
@mkm: Why? Because he helped bring about double-taxation without representation for a large swath of the middle class? Why would anyone vote for a Republican, unless they themselves are already part of the wealthy class that is getting all of the tax breaks, while the rest of us are trying to figure out how to pay our steadily rising health insurance premiums and still pay our rent?
8
In a district that went for Trump by double digits, Lesko did not fare as well. A win is a win, true, and Trump should be tweeting soon on how great he is. But Tiperneni gave Lesko a run for her money. That should give us cause to fight for every district Red, Blue, or Purple now and leading up to November. This country simply can not sustain itself with this unfit president and spineless GOP Congress. The Democratic voter is ultimately as culpable as the above in filling an ever-expanding DC cesspool if we do not vote...en masse.
8
From a 20% + Republican district to a 2.6% + district. That is a 17 point drop and consistent with what we have seen across the country for the last 8 months or so in special elections.
Republicans are in serious trouble nationwide and they should be.
They've elected an inept and morally repugnant president, who is rightly under intense legal scrutiny for his own actions, those of his campaign and administration. Hundreds if not thousands of the most talented people are avoiding serving for Trump or the administration because of the second rate, demoralizing atmosphere and the sense of corruption.
It may take a while for these 52% of Republican Arizonans to wake up but some of them will eventually.
3
Great victory for moderates who place people and America over party.
5
I afraid I cannot see republicans caring about people over party but just the opposite and by the way a five point victory does not come under the heading "Great"
1
Huh? Lesko won, and she is neither moderate, nor supportive of human beings, nor given to place America over party.
Make no mistake, she is a disaster.
5
In this country it's not qualifications and win elections, it's all about how much money you spend and how much money comes from the special interest groups.
1
If that were the case, Hillary would have won.
3
When Republicans win, think "illegal immigration" and amnesty and the Democrats' positions on these issues. (And please don't conflate this with legal immigration.)
2
Lesko had an undistinguished career in the Arizona legislature and will now inflict her nonsense on Congress.
10
If a Republican lost by 5% in a Boston area congressional district, I and other Democrats would hardly mimic the triumphalism of some of the Republicans in these comments. We would know we had a serious problem.
9
It is in their DNA, a gene that just makes Republicans oblivious to what is really going on in the country. Fox reinforces their philosophy.
3
Your headline looks like a Fox News headline.
"Rallying GOP?", I think this district went for Trump something like 25%, The democrat house candidate only lost by app. 5%. It is a total disaster for the republicans.
Assuming no tricks by Trump (ie a Putin/Kim sweetheart deal until after the mid terms), the dems running Hillary type identity obsessed establishment candidates in non dem. areas, the dems are all but certain to take back the house.
41
Ms. Tipirneni deserves credit for going to bat for Democratic principles with such little support from the party. That she was able to keep the gap to under ten points is remarkable in her district. And those who voted for her should be heartened: while their candidate did not win, their ballots are being loudly heard.
23
Democrats need to contest every seat. Make every seat a possible Democratic win, instead of letting it be a guaranteed Republican win.
22
The Democrat promised to not to support Nancy Pelosi for leadership. So did Conner Lamb.
In other words, Democrat candidates are promising to break ranks in order to win. They will not likely act like die-hard, blindly loyal party drones anymore.
I'm surprised Dems see elections of these kinds of candidates as a good thing.
Personally, I think it's GREAT to see politicians representing their district instead of their party, but it spells the end of the usual Democrat agenda.
Democrats who think they are winning aren't.
A whole new paradigm is winning.
2
Democrats shaved 16% off the lead Republicans had in this district. If not for gerrymandering Republicans would have virtually nobody in congress.
22
I found this passage in the story very telling:
"And any hopes Ms. Tipirneni had to win outside support may have faded this month when a local TV station reported that she had not practiced medicine since 2007 and had settled a malpractice lawsuit with a woman who blamed her for contracting tetanus."
Republicans often win by tearing down and attacking their opponent, even when there is nothing there to attack. I imagine that most ER doctors have been sued for malpractice at some point and I know most insurance companies REQUIRE them to settle. Does the fact that Ms. Tipirneni now works as a cancer researcher and not in emergency medicine make her less worthy than a public leech like Debbie Lesko? I am tired of 67-year-old voters who do not seem to care about the future making decisions in the voting booth that adversely affect MY life. Lesko's votes in Congress will do that.
39
This Congressional seat will be re-fought in November. So if the Republican Congress continues to support Trump and his disastrous agenda for the next 6 months it is possible that Ms Lesko will be a 6 month Congresswoman. Trump is bad for Republicans and worse for the entire country. We've still got 6 months to turn back the Red Tide and truly make America Great Again. Surely even the most deplorable of Trump's base will see how bad his behavior and actions as POTUS have been for them as well as for all the rest of us.
18
Yet again, the Democratic "leadership" follows the constant losing strategy going back to Clinton--don't invest in long-shot races, concede them to Republicans, and try to get JUST enough votes to get over the line. It's a disastrous strategy--in 1996 Clinton used it, only won a plurality of the popular vote, didn't carry the House or Senate, when he should have been elected in a LANDSLIDE. Instead, Bob Dole, in losing, had the coattails to save both Houses for the GOP.
Hillary adopted the very same strategy in 2016, with similar results--except it cost her the Electoral College and the White House. And the DNC, the DSCC, and the DCCC are filled with Clintonistas, starting with Tom Perez, who are GOING TO LOSE in November because they keep giving in to their natural tendency to avoid "losing" races--like this one. Since Lesko only won by 6 points, without national Democratic orgs mounting a major campaign against her, she could have been defeated.
This is why the Democrats lose, lose and lose, and have for nearly 40 years.
If you keep repeating the same action, expecting different results...that's the definition of insanity. Tom Perez getting on MSNBC and spewing out a cornucopia of buzzwords isn't going to change that.
We're doomed. I just hope in NJ's 11th we can take our district back, even if it's with a Pelosi cookie-cutter candidate like Mikie Sherrill, unwilling to take a strong stand on anything but what the DCCC says.
5
Clinton's fault, it is always Clinton's fault.
3
Democrats refuse to learn from their mistakes or successes.
They keep bringing up 1968.
Hello! The world had changed since 1968.
Every election is an opportunity to convince the voters that the left is the future, but the Democrats refuse to lead. They just let the Republicans win.
A Democrat that refuses to oppose Republican policy is not worth electing.
All that is necessary for emperor Wannabes like Trump to get elected is for Democrats to do nothing, and that is what Democrats keep doing.
We keep hearing how centrists, "get things done," but the only thing they get done is voting for Republican policy. They run on opposing the principles of their own party.
In NY State we have Democrats caucusing with the Republicans. We don't need Democrats that are actually Republicans in sheep clothing.
Go into the red districts and promise to help the working poor and their families, who are almost everyone in the states. They have been taught that greed is good. Tell then it's their turn to be greedy, tax the rich, and get some of the benefits of their labor.
2
Unless you can point out where I'm factually incorrect, in this case, unfortunately, it IS the Clintons' fault, and the fault of their strategists, like James Carville. It worked in 1992, only sort of worked in 1996, and hasn't worked since--that's 22 years.
In a district with a 20-25 point Republican lean, Ms. Lesko won by 5 points with the help of her national party, against a candidate who had no such support. This isn't a warning shot for Republicans, it's a death knell.
14
While Republicans may see a six-point victory, I see a 15-point pickup for Democrats in a district that, unlike the Pennsylvania seat taken by Democrat Conor Lamb, they never had a prayer of taking, given the demographics. (Too many older voters.) Still bad news for the GOP.
15
Older voters need social security. Democrats can't take Paul Ryan's repeated statements that we should privatize social security and make it a winning issue?
Most seniors are in Medicaid or Medicaid. You can't make the case that the Republicans could take away their healthcare?
Democrats keep starting with the assumption of defeat. It's a self fulfilling prophesy.
Bruce Lee said that, in a fight, you can't distract yourself with thoughts of winning or losing, living or dying, bravery or fear... You have to be focused on the moment, immediately responding to your opponent as quickly as their shadow, exploiting the weaknesses they open up.
Democrats are too clever for themselves, constantly triangulating, when they should be weaving and striking.
Retreat is a losing strategy by definition. Constant retreat by Democrats has meant constant defeat.
Republicans are in a battle for the hearts and minds of the American People, and Democratic centrists have left the field.
Believe in you principles and fight for your principles.
1
As an older voter, I am appalled at your comment. Sweeping conclusion. Dems have to talk to older voters...much of the resistance to Trump in my area is coming from older voters with the time to organize.
Dennis, please rethink this. Maybe your notions are what enable Dems to lose again and again. Oh too many of this demographic? Don't bother contesting.
Reminds me of Hilllary's loss in Wisconsin. It was hers to lose, and she did.
1
I’m 65. It’s simply a fact that people my age vote GOP. They voted for Trump. That has nothing to do with “notions” but rather cold, hard data.
1
After test driving the GOP/president this long and still voting for them my only reaction is wow. I still meet so many nice Americans in my travels who don't in any way fit the GOP profile that the continuing support for the party really confuses me.
12
It is unreasonable to assume that a region that is essentially conservative will vote for a Democrat. Republican failure is not about Democrats having a chance to win; it is about failing to get an actual Republican on the ticket. Trump is not Republican, unless we are willing to redefine the party. And apparently, rather than trying to protect against a kind of no-nothing populism, the GOP is willing to go along to keep seats. They have accepted redefining the party to keep power.
Differences in opinion over what is best for the country is normal; the expectation that the less you know the better you are is not. Wanting to get the corruption out of Washington is normal; electing people who support what is the most blatant example of quid pro quo corruption in a century is not.
The GOP has failed us - not because they are not ceding to Democrats - but because they are ceding to chaos. Winning isn't everything, when it causes everyone to lose.
8
The Republicans follow their base, which gives then the power to pass legislation for their donors.
Democrats reject their own base, dividing the party from its power.
And Democrats refuse to advocate for ideas they are supposed to believe in.
Let's assume it is impossible to beat an incumbent in a red district. Couldn't it still be useful to you to use an election as an excuse to educate the public, explain how bad policies hurt them, build expectations in them that their politicians don't want to fulfill?
By refusing to fight for every district, you are not only leaving seats uncontested, you are leaving ideas uncontested. You are leaving vast areas of the country under the sway of right wing talk radio without challenging those ideas.
A political campaign is a way to focus the people on ideas and shake up beliefs.
Every red district has people on the left who feel alone and powerless.
Showing that you haven't given up on them can show them they are not alone and give them the confidence to share their ideas with neighbors, work on campaigns, fight injustice, and maybe even run for office.
Just giving up a seat means just giving up on your allies in those districts.
We have to convince America that hate and fear are not the solution but the problem. You can't do that by hiding.
You have to advocate for good ideas and good policy, boldly, with conviction.
1
Not a surprise. Support for President Trump continues to grow as people realize the attacks on him are based on fake news and bogus facts. Robert Mueller will close soon with no evidence of any collusion. When will Debbie Schultz and Clinton be charged by the State's attorneys for colluding to defraud the voters in the primary elections?
6
Fight fire with fire. There are roughly 2600 counties where Trump won in 2016, and many of them will be going to the polls this November. Democrats need to field candidates who are veterans of armed forces, police etc.,, and who are socially conservative but are economically liberal.
Hats off to Dr. Tipirneni for taking the fight to the right. Better luck next time running for a state level race, and solidify name recognition.
4
I was surprised by your choice of words to describe the Republican voters who backed a Trump supporter in this special election. I'd have to run out of terms describing various moral failings and cognitive deficiencies completely to arrive even in vicinity of "resilience"...
4
The good news is that even a flawed Democrat without any experience running in a heavily Republican district can make enormous inroads in the previous margins of Republican victories.
The bad news is that the Democratic National Committee again is a day late and a dollar short.
8
She was ahead by 6 points in a district that Romney won by 25? It seems more likely that all the "help" from trump robo calls dragged her down!
6
So how exactly does this show the "resilience" of the Trump base? The vote margin was down 15 percentage points from 2016, and in a special election, when older, white, Republican voters tend to come out, and younger, Latino, Democratic voters tend to stay home. To make the "resilience" argument of the author, we'd need to see how actual turnout for each party differed from 2016. If, hypothetically, Democratic turnout is down 10%, but Republican turnout is down 25%, that would hardly be a sign of Republican base "resilience." Instead, it would show fatigue among the Trump base and energy in the Democratic base even in an overwhelmingly Republican district.
8
The Trump base is about a third of the population. His support with them is resilient. It is the people that voted, not for Trump, but against Hillary, that are not tied to him.
But stop assuming that they are looking for an establishment centrist. They voted against all of the establishment centrists. They are looking for someone that can solve their very real economic problems, something which both Republicans (who say that tax cuts for the rich are the answer) and centrist Democrats (who just want to compromise with Republicans) refuse to do.
Republicans are going to call you tax and spend socialists no matter how many cuts to taxes and spending you make. Instead, own it. "Yes, we will tax the crony capitalists to invest in you and your children. Republicans borrow and slash taxes on the rich. We can pay the debt and pay for education, healthcare, and infrastructure, and put money in your pockets that will actually grow the economy."
That is how you win, not by refusing to promise anything while Republicans promise all things to all people.
Promise that you will help them get ahead, and yet will give you a chance.
The unpopularity of Trump is s huge opportunity to change the status quo.
Take it.
1
Having spent some time in Surprise, Sun City, and other parts of this district visiting my retired grandparents and socializing with their neighbors and other members of this community, this result isn't surprising at all. Many of these residents have voted Republican since Dwight Eisenhower first ran for election, and have never wavered since, regardless of how the party has changed. Those who did vote democrat either stay quiet or have long since been rendered apathetic by the collapse of the new deal coalition they once identified with.
That being said, Ms. Tipirneni deserves some recognition for a relatively good showing in such a strongly red district. While Democrats may not be able to win every seat in the country, putting on strong contests everywhere will go a long way towards not only regaining a majority, but laying the groundwork for new bases of support in traditionally republican areas.
23
Closing the gap and making the GOP nervous is all good. But the Dems have to be more strategic about where to focus their efforts in November. They can't win them all and need to pick their battles.
1
She lost by 5 points in a strongly Republican/Trump area. Where were the national Dems campaigning for her and making a win more possible? She did great to come that close, but the Democratic leadership is going to have to step up its game--NOW.
12
Look, I want the Democrats to take back the House this fall and expect them to work as hard as the importance of the task demands, but it's unrealistic to think they're going to win every seat. It isn't even desirable—the House is supposed to represent the people, and some districts really are Republican. There was probably no Democrat worth the name who would've won here. That's okay. We're not trying to exterminate the Republican party (though I would like to cure some of the hate-filled animus infecting it). We're trying to get back to a balance of power that represents everyone.
25
Wolfe, a balance of power is nice, and is what should be, but ever since Karl Rove, the goal of the Republicans is a total takeover, by whatever means necessary. That's what we're up against. We're not going to win every race, but we need to fight like every race is the most important one. We can't afford lackadaisical efforts anywhere. Republicans must know that even if they win a race, there are enough voters on the other side that they won't easily impose their crazy ideas on the rest of us.
5
The Democrats better work harder if they want to win the mid-term elections!
What's with choosing a novice Democratic candidate to run?
6
What a shame that the DNC did not place more attention on this election as it clear: EVERY election is winnable now.
29
The Democrat lost on the issues: 1. Immigration. Democrat leaders have made it clear they will fight for immigrants, especially illegal (undocumented) immigrants, but unfortunately most Americans want only legal immigration. 2: Immigration. 3: Immigration.
24
Not living in the area you don’t actually understand that these Midwestern retirees live in gated communities “scared” of others. But are perfectly happy having the “brown” people take care of the yards and clean their houses.....
7
The issues vary by congressional district
One size dies not fit all
Especially when it comes to racism.
6 points is not a big win.
Good luck GOP RIP
2
I’ll bet you that most of the folks that voted republican in this district have hired at least one “ illegal” to do some work in their yard when its 115 degrees in the summer and haven’t even bothered to think about what they’ll do when all the Mexicans in the district are deported
5
Anything below 10 percentage points is not good news said Mr Flake. Well it's not good news then.
11
As an aging boomer, I still question why fellow seniors insist on voting for the party that wants to reduce their Medicare and social security and rollback regulations that help the middle class. Repub$ are slowly trying to achieve their goal of dismantling the New Deal.
Having parents that lived through the Depression, I know how essential it is to have a government that works for ALL citizens, not just the wealthy.
129
It’s a mystery to me too.
But remember Trump “promised” he wouldn’t change Medicare and Social Security, then again he made a lot of promises. Whatever happened to that big beautiful healthcare plan that would cover everybody for a lot less than Obamacare, oh yeah, it never existed.
I sincerely hope Paul “Ayn Rand” Ryan’s parting shot isn’t the complete elimination of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. That is his one great thus far unfulfilled dream.
4
Hey Delmar,
Where on earth are you getting this stuff from? I haven't seen the Medicare and social security talking point in years and I read the NYT every day. Throw that old fax out and get some new material.
If SS and Medicare are to be reformed it is fairly well understood that it will need to be a combination of removing caps, increasing rates and decreasing benefits; the last of which has always been spoken of as not impacting those in or near retirement.
I don't know when this will ever happen because both parties are afraid to bring it up.
2
The problem here is you are talking old people who come from the Midwest, where the people there believe that they never got anything from the government, that all they did was pay for, to quote Reagan "Welfare queens in cities picking up their checks driving Cadillacs", and who believe Social Security and Medicare will never be touched because "they earned it". They are no different then the blue collar and rural voters who vote for the GOP who give huge tax cuts to the rich and corporations, who give incentive for companies to send jobs offshore or automate (the stockholder management, which is based on investment income being given favored treatement), then cry when their jobs disappear and their communities are in stress. They believe the GOP when they tell them they are gonna be rich if we just got rid of the government and welfare, despite the fact that has been the GOP mantra for many decades, where they enacted huge tax cuts, and these people's plights got worse and worse.
7
Don't these geezer voters (and I'm one of 'em) know that Trump's tax plan leaves their grandkids with even more debt and threatened cutbacks in Medicare and Social Security "entitlements"? God love 'em.
52
Just as the Hillary loss, the Democrats cannot accept this either, you can spin it anyway you want, but this is a loss no matter how you look at it.
17
Duh, it’s Arizona!!!!
2
The only lesson here is that Democrats can't expect to win every single Congressional seat in November.
13
Only many many more
I think the gop retirees in Congress know something
2
"National Democrats, however, stayed away from the race, deducing that a district that has sent only Republicans to Congress for four decades was out of reach. " Nancy Pelosi needs to be ousted, and now! What if Democrats had flooded the zone? What if Democrats had even tried? Nancy Pelosi can single-handedly crash the 'Blue Wave'. She needs to be ousted and now!
28
Pelosi bashing has gotten far out of control. Look into her history and you will understand we would be in a far worse place without her skills as a party leader. Compare what she accomplished to Paul Ryan. She saved social security during the Bush years and probably single handedly got the ACA (Obamacare) passed. Now of course if you are a deeply red person then you would fear her abilities.
9
Pick your battles. If you have children, you understand this.
2
This Republican win in Arizona is very encouraging to the party. They are still in it to win it. The people have spoken and they wanted Debbie Lesko. They need to keep up this momentum and hopefully they will win even more seats during the upcoming midterm elections. This win proves they are still relevant to the voters. I would say to Jeff Flake that a win is a win no matter the percentage points. Well done Arizona.
6
I suggest sharing your thoughts with the 40 GOP retirees in Congress starting with Paul Ryan
6
Oops....you don’t live here and don’t see that the gerrymandered district is filled with retirees from the Midwest who are scared of brown people. To only lose by 5% in a district that is heavily Republican is a “sea change”.
11
..., well, Democrats had better learn that “anything but Trump” is neither a platform nor a strategy, which will attract the clusters of voters HRC wrote off.
12
Ms. Tipirneni's first time bid was impressive in a district deemed unwindable for Democrats, but the DNC's lack of support was disappointing, like their poorly advised neglect of the midwestern states in the last election.
25
I hope the GOP keeps on whistling. The graveyard is mighty long.
6
Almost all local elections are...
local.
The Democrats better up their game
and stop believing their effusive propaganda
if they wish to win in 2018 and 2020.
10
The author of this article states:
"..the steps conservatives took to secure victory for a former officeholder illustrate just how much the anti-Trump energy on the left is putting Republicans on the defensive across the country.
This is an erroneous characterization. Why describe objection to Trump as "energy on the left"?
What is "the left", and why does the author feel a need to pigeonhole dissent as coming from "the left"?
Any clear headed, principled, cognitive human would and should object to the outrages of this Administration, and of the brain-dead, unprincipled Republican Congress. You don't have to be of "the left" to qualify.
Lazy, and cliché-ridden writing- not accurate.
32
Remember the giant blue wave you were predicting? It is not coming. That’s what the neo liberal DNC would like you to believe. But it ain’t coming. Not for a DINO or GOP-lite candidate or anyone in the DNC.
I think it is a wonderful time to switch to being independent.
8
really, you got that from one election won by a relatively narrow margin considering that district's history? that's a might crystal ball you have.
6
Your political analysis is, shall we say, lacking all nuance, basic knowledge and and any thoughtful moderation. This is Arizona, a right wing crackpot state of ignorance and extremism. Not a generic, moderate place.Got it yet?
4
It amazes me that the existential threat posed to our world by climate change is still so little thought of in these contexts. Presumably, Lesko will fall in behind Trump's lying, ignorant denialism, instead of being even a small voice for active, thoughtful efforts to join the world and fight this problem (as, perhaps, Ms. Tipirneni would have been). Lesko's just another Republican ostrich, corrupted or propagandized into stupidity by the fossil fuels industries.
And, ironically, Arizona is in a region that will dry up and heat up faster and faster in the coming decades. Not that its aging population seems to care.
16
The aging population living there does not care what will happen to their children leaving behind a huge debt, very often they even do not talk to their children who look at them like dinosaurs unable to realize that human race is is in danger...
4
I see cooked Republicans in Az future. Toasted in fact
2
The other day I posted that Tipirneni would likely be hurt by allegations that she quit her medical practice because of a malpractice lawsuit. As I indicated, it is unknown whether this is true. Still, I got 7 replies from folks outside of Arizona declaring it to be a smear and a lie. None explained how they knew.
The Arizona Republic endorsed Tipirneni. Today, it reported that "Republicans pushed back on Tipirneni’s medical credentials, suggesting she quit practicing medicine to become a cancer research advocate because of a medical malpractice lawsuit years ago."
The Republic -- my original source -- does not indicate whether the allegation is true. But there are clearly Democrats who comment here who think like Trump -- it doesn't matter if it is true, as long as I say it. There are plenty of liars on both sides of the aisle. Those who think they have a monopoly on the truth are kidding themselves.
7
I understand what you're saying. Now, as for Trump and all the lawsuits and bankruptcies and his thinly veiled dogwhistle racism and near countless other potentially legally wrong flaws: Do you report on that here to us with equal energy?
Just asking.
4
I concur with those who express dismay that anyone could vote for someone who supports Donald Trump, as is the case of Debbie Lesko in Arizona. However, it is worth noting New York's 2018 state legislative special elections produced several Republican victories. Chilling!
https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/new...
11
There are cloistered pockets of entrenched ignorance throughout rural America and the Deep South, and West. Why is this a revelation to you?
2
Mind you, Long Island is hardly rural. Closer to home, in NYC, it was no surprise an outstanding and true progressive, Harvey Epstein, won in a landslide ( by 90 percent) in the 74th Assembly District. We definitely need more Harvey Epstein's in Albany.
1
Although I would like to have read of a democrat victory this morning, I did not expect it. The democrats will not run the table this Nov, nor do they need to. I am confident that the momentum of the young, first-time voters, hispanics, African Americans, and women will prevail,fueled by Trump’s incompetence.
27
Check the stock market and read about the discredited VA pick and the shrinking pool of people willing to subject themselves to his bizarre and ineffective leadership.
4
@Barry De Walt: Housing and healthcare prices spiraling out of control? Millions of Americans with less than four hundred dollars in savings? Stagnant, low wages and slashed benefits for workers? A massive income gap, with the have-nots falling further and further behind? Massive student debt? Consumer debt and interest rates climbing? The cost of higher education out of reach of millions of people? Underfunded and neglected public schools and transportation struggling to serve the demand? Infrastructure falling apart across the country? Poor folks in rural areas with no access to healthcare? Hello!
Only stockholders and business owners are cheering the Trump economy, because nobody else is getting much out of it at all.
3
Old, crabby, retired boomers are easy to anger and frighten. And they vote, unlike younger people. The average age of the early voter in this election was 68. That’s been AZ’s story for a long time. You’d think age produces wisdom but it’s pure myth. It more often produces schlerotic minds.
41
as they rail against the folks (immigrants) that are needed to care for them...
4
Debbie Lesko's win tells me one thing - that Arizona's 8th Congressional District is filled with people who fear "the other" and who want to maintain their privileged status as whites. Exaggeration? Not according to a just-published study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
https://phys.org/news/2018-04-status-economic-hardship-drove-voters.html
there is no changing someone like that. Eventually, they will die off. Hopefully, we can get some of the 63 million registered voters who did not vote to get to the polls, or some of the 56 million eligible voters who are not registered, registered.
We get the Democracy we deserve. 2018 is going to tell me (and all of us, Americans) just what kind of future we are heading toward. If we have to go another 2 years down the current path, it will be at least 15-20 years to come back because the GOP will be able to further its hold by even more restrictive gerrymandering and voter intimidation.
We made a horrible mistake - a tragic mistake - in 2016. Hubris is a killer.
36
Citizens United vs. U.S
3
Won with money fund raised by Paul Ryan and now he’s even bailing out.
Maybe Ryan will just become a professional full time fund raiser for his dying, unlivable Republican party. They’ll need zillions come fall.
19
The stunning result of the election in Arizona's 8th district is all the more important when one considers the demographics of its population. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district by approximately 70,000 voters (58 percentage point difference). It surely reinforces Sen. Flake's prophesy that "this is not good news" for Republicans.
The margin of 6% by which Lesko won bodes very ill for the GOP. The fact that the DNC did not allocate national funding for Dr. Tipirnene should also be a wake-up call to them for the importance of financially supporting candidates across the entire nation regardless of historical precedent.
Also notable is that current polling for the 2018 Senatorial seat shows that Democratic candidate Rep. Krysten Sinema is leading Republicans Martha McSalley, Kelly Ward, and Joe Arpaio by 6 percentage points or more.
The irony of this situation is that the bulk of voters in this district are likely recipients of both Social Security and Medicare. By November, it is also conceivable that this demographic may come to realize that the GOP intends to fund its famous tax cut shortfall by raiding Social Security funds, and cutting back on Medicare funding.
None of this augurs well for the GOP retaining its balance of power in the 116th Congress in 2018-2020. The responsibility for the so-called "blue wave" falls to an informed voting public. November 6th can't come soon enough!
48
That's the problem, wysiwyg. The lack of an informed voting public is what's missing in the blue wave equation. Outrage and enthusiasm can get us only so far. We have a lot of work to do to ensure we have and increase that missing component.
6
Congratulations to Ms. Lesko! So glad for the people of Arizona, America, and the world. Humanity needs more such victories. The Democrats, especially the most liberal among them, need to go down in defeat. I used to support Democrats when they were the party of the working class, to whom they have turned their back in favor of the "political identities" that represent the fringes of society. It's not that I am a big fan of Republicans. I support them because they are not Democrats, or rather what the Democrats have become: progressive, permissive, and promiscuous. Arizona does not need that; America does not need that; the world does not need that. We already have too much of that evil. We need to return to tradition or we will be doomed. Thank you.
13
IS what you refer to the evil of equal opportunity, of loving ones neighbor regardless of race, creed, or religion. Is the tradition the one about where whites dominate others and subjugate anyone not in their "in" group. I suspect your support for Republicans is based on guns, white supremacy, and conservative Christianity that does not leave room for many of the rest of us.
8
Which U.S. "tradition" involves colluding with Russians, building giant walls, demonizing immigrants and minorities, assaulting women, and lying about everything? If avoiding such a "tradition" means we're "doomed", then I will happily be "doomed".
7
Now what does one mean by a return to tradition? Perhaps the new museum in Montgomery, Al may be one of those old time traditions. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/25/us/lynching-memorial-alabama.html?hp&...®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
3
This is a very red district. The Republican candidate did not do the Democrats a favor and self-destruct. The closer than expected result means that the Dems made her sweat and that, my friends is a very good thing.
11
Congratulations, Ms. Lesko! Wishing you the best!
5
Someone please correct me if I'm wrong (references and sources are always appreciated), but I understand that the national Democratic Party organization provided very little support to Tipirneni because it was assumed this was a race impossible to win.
Seeing the results, I can't help wondering what might have happened if she'd received national party support.
When does this seat come up for election again?
11
If Ms. Lesko wins by only 6 points in a district where Trump carried by 21 points, and with a demonstrably weak Democratic candidate who was not supported by the national Democratic apparatus, I'd say things are looking good for the Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections.
Let's focus our collective energy on the midterms--there is hope!
19
Your next presidential candidate will lose by a smaller margin to Trump. Liberal logic of WINNING and HOPE.
5
You like the NYT underestimate the hatred of Hillary Clinton, she is not on the ballot.
The Democrats must spend the lion's share of their money on State elections in order to have the power to blunt Republican gerrymandering. 2020 is upon us, and unless the Democrats increase control in the States, the result we see in this election will continue to thwart the will of the people.
11
What is the use of having a National Democratic Party when it sits out a race of this importance? Get in there and fight. Picking and choosing what candidate to support will not lead to victory. The loss here was only by six points. There are Republicans and independents that will vote for viable democratic candidates. Maybe we need a new party.
20
Let us know how much you contribute to the DNC to mount competition in every race.
4
Perplexed why some of the more prominent Democrats couldn't get on a plane and campaign for Tipirneni? She was definitely a long shot given the character of the district, but you never know, and it would have sent a message that the Democrats view every district as winnable. Also wish the Democrats would absolutely end the practice of letting Republicans run unopposed, which was the case previously in this district and others like it.
183
To win in a deep red district, you can't link yourself strongly to "prominent Democrats." See Conor Lamb's strategy in PA.
4
So Arizona still has a lot of work to do. When teachers have to cross the border to Texas to make a living, you know there is something wrong.
However, the DNC might have made a mistake of not supporting Tipirneni. It is not about win or lose but it is about morale. Evidently, the Dems never learned from their mistake
32
Really? I and many, many others wrote postcards to Dems in AZ in support of Tipirneni. It's a campaign called Postcards for Democrats. We engage in every special election. Hillary won the popular vote, remember? The margins are closing - just ask Lamb and Jones!
5
@Jo-Anne
Thanks for your response but I am not your target since I based my comment on the following quote*. Perhaps you should take it up with DNC
* "National Democrats, however, stayed away from the race, deducing that a district that has sent only Republicans to Congress for four decades was out of reach. And any hopes Ms. Tipirneni had to win outside support may have faded this month when a local TV station reported that she had not practiced medicine since 2007 and had settled a malpractice lawsuit with a woman who blamed her for contracting tetanus."
2
Texas does not have a border with Texas. Teachers can head to TX, but they have to pass through New Mexico first!
2
Those who voted for Lesko will regret it when the GOP makes major cuts to social security and medicare. The fact that they want to do this is not exactly a secret. They have spoke openly about this, i fact, it has been Paul Ryan's dream.
101
This is the standard refrain after every single republican is elected: Your [fill-in-the-benefit] will be cut!"
Also known as "sour grapes".
3
67 year old snowbirds!! I'll start laughing when the Repubs cut their Social Security pensions and privatize their Medicare.
323
though I do not disagree that the goal is to gut the safety net (I am 66) we will be grandfathered. They will go for the 55 and under crowd. I have listened for the last 15 years younger people saying SSA and Medicare will not be there for them. When I ask why I get the far away stare. Because we are told it is running out of money. No it is not, do not let people tell you that. It has been the Republican goal from the get go. And the Republicans are doing a great job of making people believe this is true when it is readily fixable which they do not want.
The other point is this was a 21 point county in 2016, now only 5. Although no win, that does not fore bode well for Republicans
23
I guess these snowbirds are safe. But it shows they don’t care a hoot about their children’s or grandchildren’s social security and medicare. Thanks, granny and gramps!
7
The centrist Democrats keep saying the same thing. It's a lie when they say it too.
1
The important thing is not how the game is played, but rather who wins and who loses. Debbie Lesko has won and that is the most important operative fact.
Hundreds of variously named Democratic women have run for hundreds of Congressional offices over the last past two to four to six years and the names of just about all of them are well consigned to the dust of the Clerk's files much less any history books.
All we really hear and tend to remember out of these electoral races are that so-and-so ran against such-and-such and lost. All newcomers have it especially and traditionally tough against incumbents no matter how egregious the incumbents' record is.
The only viable way, manner, fashion and form in which to get rid of any given incumbent in these times is to have said incumbent morally self-destruct such as Mr. Franks and others have.
Fortunately Ms. Lesko has now been elected and can proceed with helping to do the people's business on behalf of her constituents in Arizona's 8th. We need good, strong, viable Republican women candidates and incumbents to succeed and win in order to continue the economic and other success which has bolstered America since President Trump's election. Hillary Clinton's loss and defeat in 2016 must presage those of the Democratic women and men who would seek Congressional office in the November, 2018 House and Senate Elections. However, as the article pointed out, the margins of GOP victory must be larger. Congrats, Ms. Lesko!
14
What "economic success"? The deficit is roughly 500 billion higher than two years ago, job growth is slightly lower, and Q1 GDP will be roughly 2.0%.
So jobs and GDP performance is unchanged, debt and debt service is soaring. A half a trillion dollars spent and nothing to show for it.
247
Democrats remain in denial about so many things, especially the economy. The fact remains that the tax cuts will put more money in people's pockets. Only in the coastal bubbles is a doubling of the child tax credit "peanuts". That's $2K right off the tax owed the government.
Their denial continues to help republicans. Let them keep insulting republican voters and their elected president. They have short memories and forget how disrespecting Obama led to a large turnout among blacks.
5
Why just not auction the senate or house seats ? This would finish the pretention of one person - one vote.
And the 1,000,000 $ of out-state campaign finance would not look so outlandish.
And Mercer, Koch and other bankers of the GOP would no longer need to go the long and windy road via campaign contributions. To win their support you would only need to maintain tax deductions. This is crucial as the uncommited tax payer should continue to pay.
Any way Republicans will confirm you: the market always knows it best.
7
I have lived in Arizona part time for the past 40 years. Make no mistake, the dinosaurs are dying.
233
Not soon enough to make any real differences.
3
I don't know... this feels more like a Jurassic Park nightmare than old bones in the dust.
6
Love this comment! (If we don't laugh, we'll cry)
2
Although some Dems feel this is, if not a win, still promising, I do not. For me, it's just disgusting that anyone in America would support someone that supports Donald Trump.
488
In the words of Sun Tzu, "know your enemies and know yourself..."
There are many reasons why he appeals to some people and we would be benefiting ourselves to know something of what those people think, feel and believe, from their own perspective. It's easy for us to dehumanize them. But it's a mistake.
7
If Ms. Lesko wins by only 5 or 6 points in a district where Trump carried by 21 points, and with a demonstrably weak Democratic candidate who was not supported by the national Democratic apparatus, I'd say things are looking good for the Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections.
Moaning about Trump is self-indulgent and a waste of time. Let's focus our collective energy on the midterms--there is hope!
92
I feel the same. But the hard fact is that they do, and we can't ignore the reasons. If Democrats focused on the more palatable issues that the Trumpers feel their savior is bringing them, perhaps we could reach out to them and bring in their vote. Sadly, like so many left wingers the world over, the Democrats are so focused on minority issues that they forget about those issues that are common to us all.
Fact is, Trump, like all successful liars, uses a grain of truth and makes it something it isn't. It's up to Deconracts to tackle that same truth and do something positive with it. First, they need to acknowledge its existence.
5
Yes they spent more money. But they have lots and lots of money.
Yes the margin was decidedly lower than the earlier margin for Trump.
But they won the seat.
16
Why would anyone, Republican, Democrat, or Independent, think that their candidate can win every race in every state? Of course Tipirneni lost, but by a far smaller margin than could have been imagined a few months ago. More importantly, she stood up and fought, she raised money, she organized a campaign, she got out the vote, with no thanks owed to the DNC or the DCCC. Seeing an impressive young physician do what Tipirneni did will have a much greater impact on the November elections than you can imagine.
12
Actually, they held a seat that they already had.
2
Imagine what might have happened if the DNC and the DCCC had supported Tiperneni. It might have been a tossup.
2
Those AARP-eligible snowbirds may have to move back to Philly when Republicans revoke their Social Security. Say it slowly and think about what it means - social security.
188
Who is cutting Social Security? is there a bill in Congress to cut Social Security? Because this is news to me.
You are accusing the GOP of something that has not even happened.
2
So, forget that the margins been cut dramatically in this and focus on the "resilience" of GOP voters?
Now, about all the wins for Democrats in formally strongly held GOP areas...
23
What a "rally!" Such "resilience!" A 19 point swing towards Democrats that Republicans can surely be proud of. Especially considering the quality of the candidates, registration advantage, midterm-like turnout, and demographics.
44
A 31 point shift towards the democrats, and only 5 percent of the votes separating candidates does not look like an overwhelming voter mandate.
Are voters starting to recognize the fallacies and fakery of the Trump administration?
82
Unless I'm wrong I think she has to run again in Nov. Go harder . " Go Blue Wave." Dump Trump.
3
Hillary won by only 3%.
It only takes one single vote to win.
1
The DCCC did not back Hiral Tipirneni. I don't believe any senior Establishment Democrat came to Arizona o back her, I might be wrong. They essentially watched from the sidelines and/or threw her under the bus. A good reason why I became an independent in 2016.
The great "unwashed," people like me backed her. And I don't even live in Arizona and have no plans to go there. As long as that egregious beyond belief Arpaio is there in the public sphere and an unacceptable Governor. I don't understand the electorate who backed Lesko. In the age of Trumpism, anything is possible, we are in uncharted territory.
91
You make good points. They might have won if the DCCC had supported her.
3
I admit I haven't been following EVERY local election in the country. But I don't recall seeing anything about this election in the NY Times until yesterday or perhaps Sunday. In the "related coverage" bit at the end of the article there is a link to one of April 9. But it's my sense that this race was not covered at all adequately in the national press.
I wonder if more people around the country might have donated to Tipirneni's campaign if it had been given a bit of prominence in reporting, over the last few weeks. Might those extra dollars have made a difference? Does how a media source chooses to cover an election actually change the election results?
To have a successful democracy we have to have an informed citizenry. If the information is not being made available (purposely?) by media, is this a subversion of democracy?
3
DNC should not waste its money on a race that cannot be won. If they spend $1 million on moving the loss from 6% to 3% that money is not available where it could have moved someone from a 1% loss to a 2% win. Furthermore, in many districts the "arrival" of "Nancy Pelosi and her liberal Washington socialists" (DNC) will do more harm than good. Its not just about drumming up support for our candidates but also about avoiding to drum up resistance to them. Let the local (and national) supporters of a candidate do the funding and hard work first. If they can show that they are closing the gap to a point where it is realistic for them to win - then they have earned $ support from DNC.
5
Early voting and the Democrat is behind by @6 points.
Same day vote will favor her.
So, final percentage will be under 5 points.
In an incredibly conservative district Romney won by 25 and Trump won by 20.
That's not a win…
That's a wave.
Surfs up.
Are you registered?
138
Yes, I'm registered in the neighboring AZ 6 district, having become an official resident, albeit a snowbird, who spends just 7 months a year here. Believe me, this was a huge victory, if not a win, for Democrats today. In November, my district will throw out Freedom Caucus member David Schweikert. Trump only won this district by 11 points. I bet he's dialing for dollars tomorrow.
16
And what is the program of the Democrats ? Can you win just by saying: we are disgusted ?
4
"Surf's up"! Finally the perfect line to fit on a blue cap this fall! Many thanks!
2
The story here once again appears not to be the front of a Democratic wave but the small percentage of registered voters who actually voted, thus leaving November totally up for grabs by whichever party can mobilize those who stayed home today.
Unless the Democrats get around to crafting a message other than "not-Trump", and unless they can field charismatic, qualified candidates, the majority that did not vote will continue to sit home, and the Democrats will lose the opportunity that 2018 provides. It is much easier to motivate a non-voter than it is to convert a voter.
52
Although the Democrats do have a strong economic plan to run on (a massive infrastructure plan and a redistribution of the benefits from the tax cut - among other things), I am one of those who think "not Trump" is really all they need to win. I believe women and millennials would walk over glass to vote out Republicans who refuse to pass sensible gun safety laws and fund education.
84
You have a point. My advice is the Dems need to just list what they’ve done and what they stand for. Compare this to what the GOP hasn’t done and what they stand for. Not sure why this is so complicated.
1
Tipirneni supported restrictions on gun ownership.
Tipirneni supported Medicare for All.
Most important for the future of Arizona politics, Tipirneni favored the repeal of a recent Republican bill that would destroy public education in favor of charter schools. This issue will be on the ballot, come November, as a referendum.
Please do the basic research before sounding off. Thank you.
11
Those retirees in Sun City vote strongly Republican. Wait until Debbie decides to reduce their Medicare and Social Security benefits to balance the budget.
472
They either won't notice or won't blame their team. Their media choices are apparently very convincing.
9
I hope she does. They deserve it for supporting her.
7
The fact that every Republican proposal over the past 2 decades regarding Social Security and Medicare costs have focused exclusively on future beneficiaries (not current) seem to be completely lost upon Nancy.
5
As of 9:10pm Arizona time, 0% of precincts are reporting which means only early ballots are being counted. A five percent early-voting margin seems scarcely certain if, say, a surge of voters who never usually vote have showed up in person at the polls today.
If the GOPer were behind, she'd be hemming and hawing for several days before conceding the election.
2
It's not the usual early voting we're thinking of though. It's all the mail-in votes, which account for something like 75% of the total number that will have voted by the end of the day.
8
To the people of Arizona: Sorry but the people of New York have IRRECONCILABLE differences with you because anyone who could still, after all we've endured, vote for someone who bases their candidacy on support of Trump cannot be part of the same country as us. The same goes for Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Kentucky...get the idea? See, we're attempting to convince ourselves that the mid-term elections will start to set things right but what if it does not? What's the next step? Is it so far-fetched to begin to think about DIVORCE? Maybe the British will take us back? I mean who would you rather have as your head of state, Trump or Elizabeth 2? I rest my case.
253
I sympathize and I hate to break it to you but 2.8 million people in the state of NY voted for Trump.
5
Don't put down all the people of Arizona. Republicans only carry this state by a few percentage points and the demographics are changing. You've got your share of Trump supports in NY so don't be so state-righteous. Go have your argument in upstate NY and stop judging us in the borderland.
7
According to Politifact, New York has the most corrupt political officials in the country. My guess is that not many folks want to go to the dance with all the crooked New Yorkers.
4
"victory shows the resilience of the G.O.P. base." No it doesn't. It shows one catastrophic mess the Republicans are walking into. The Democratic candidate lost by less than double digits. Given the 20 -25% trouncing the Democrats have suffered in the past.....this is not resilience, this the start of an all out rout.
Do mae wests work in a Tsunami?
102
Not surprising this poster is from Massachusetts, they still refuse to accept the results of the Presidential election
3
I doubt the Republicans will be crowing too loudly about a six-point win in a cluster of right-wing suburbs that Trump won by 21 and Romney won by 25. Tipirneni gave it a good try in unfriendly terrain and this is definitely a strong sign that the Democrats will flip the Arizona Senate seat this fall and maybe pick up more moderate House seats in the Sun Belt. Onward!
125
Not clear why this commenter believes this:
"Nothing changes until we get the money (ie, criminality) out of elections at every level."
Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump by a very wide margin in 2016, but lost. The reasons Trump got elected may or may not be good reasons, but it's rather difficult to argue that he got elected because he spent more.
21
Progressives seem to be stuck in a cycle of excuses and blame. From the Russians to gerrymandering, it's always something that prevents them from prevailing. Hillary is a perfect example of a failure to acknowledge the responsibility of one's own actions and beliefs in not inspiring a country to follow you.
7
It's not clear why you think the commenter in question was referring to Der Trumpf.
1
Even more interesting: a couple years back, GOP rising star Eric Cantor lost his seat (and disappeared from public life) after spending $5 million on the race (mostly given to him by the Kochs) -- to a candidate who spend about $100,000 and was NOT a Democrat but an even more conservative Tea Partier.
Money is not everything.
4
Goes to show that the Blue Wave in November is only going to happen if everyone gets out and votes. There are still millions of Republicans who would rather shoot you than pay taxes for their own medical care.
387
Just for the record. Ms. Lesko's win doesn't show "the resiliency of the Republican base", as much as it shows the desperation in the Republican ranks...YUGE difference.
87
she won that's all that counts
1
@robcerra
It's not "winning" that counts -- it's what you do with it.
Or, haven't you noticed that yet with this president?
7
Isn't it sad, I can't look at any Republican politician right now and assume honesty, decency, or a commitment to truth.
330
Then there's Bill Clinton.
3
Democrats are still living the dream if Republicans have to spend this much effort on every "safe" district. And a +12-14% shift during a relatively quiet news cycle means a likely House flip this fall, and possibly more if a few headline-news events hit.
88
As of just before midnight, it appears the Republican candidate leads by just under 6%, which is a considerable decrease from the margins in past elections.
If Democrats want to capture a majority come Election Day, they will need to start getting proactive and contribute money to each and every Democratic candidate, regardless of how "red" or "blue" a district may be. In the unfortunate circumstances of American elections, where big money is of utmost importance, the Democrats must refrain from being penny wise and pound foolish. They should be embarrassed that the high-ups in the national party refused to finance Dr. Tipirneni's campaign. Frankly, it comes across as dismissive of the Democratic cause, and leaves a great void for Republicans to take advantage of.
178
Just as in VA, the major energy in November will come from the new activists in the Indivisible groups, March for Our Lives, Black Lives Matter, MeToo, the WOmen's March, etc. If Ryan gets his Medicare and Social Security cuts passed, I expect there will be a group of Gray Panthers, too. The DNC doesn't seem to want to acknowledge the existence of these groups, but they are the blue wave and they will take back the House in November.
2
Sorry, I read to fast. It was not the physician who favored the wall. Still, a sad day.
3
The standard verbiage, reported in several sources has been:
“Republican optimism was based in large part on early voters, who had cast 154,076 ballots by Friday. Nearly half of the returned ballots, 48.5 percent, were cast by Republicans; just 27.7 percent were cast by Democrats. The average age of all district residents is 43 years old; the average early voter was 68 years old.”
Why is it assumed that everyone registered as a Republican will vote for the Republican? It is much easier to change one’s mind than to change one’s voting affiliation. Additionally, why is average age a factor? Yes, older people tend to be more conservative and vote Republican; but in this race, the Republican plans to align with the strict right wing of the party - those who want to pay for the tax cuts with cuts to Social Security and Medicare.
People are more complicated than the numbers that describe them. Assuming a 20-point lead in this race is ridiculous.
18
she won but hardly by any large margin--6% or less. Had it been 40% that is a different story. Clearly then the GOP is NOT all that popular and perhaps next time more folks will get out an vote. IT IS A PARTICIPATORY form of government that we have so one has to DO SOMETHING to keep it going. O/W it is Venezuela or the United Kingdumb where monarchy has ruled. The TRAZI party isn't going to last.
12
If the Democrat had won by 6%, you'd be hooting and stomping your feet and claiming a "blue tsunami".
3
That is a weird interpretation when 25+% of Trump's supporters move away from Trump.
55
"Rallying GOP" seems to be a strange headline for a reliably republican district being won by just 6% based on current data, in a district where the RNC and outside PACs spent nearly a million dollars compared with the DNC spending $250k. This would be a frightening result if I were in the GOP. Better than a loss, sure, but a 15 point swing away from the Republicans? Hardly a rally.
49
If I only watched Fox "News", or Hannity, or listening to Rush, this might be reassuring. But as a person capable of critical thinking, I'm wondering what the 'insider' Republicans, the political 'pros who know', are thinking; if they're feeling confident, at all? Consider - Trump won this district by 20% a little over a year ago. Republicans spent multiples of the Democrat's spending, and major party figures intruded with heavy calls, advertising, and signs everywhere when I was in the district last week. And yet, for all their effort, in a historically solid Republican district, the Democrat lost by less than 6%.
What is going to happen in the districts where the voters are more evenly balanced? What is going to happen in districts where Trump won by a less than 20%? And the deeper question - why is this happening? An obvious answer to that: Trump. Voters who chose Trump as the 'anti-Hillary' vote, or wanted to "shake things up in Washington", are now seeing what the real consequences of an entirely unqualified, unexperience, ethically unmoored president are. The mid-terms will be a referendum on Trump - his personality, his performance, his qualifications, his ethics, and his future. The trend is not looking good, for Trump. How much longer will Republicans in Congress tie their futures to Trump's? Or will that even matter, after November?
157
The election will be a referendum on Trump to a large degree, but Democrats can't make it about Trump. That would be a waste of resources. Everyone knows who Trump is and what he does.
Democrats have to advocate for real policies that help most people.
That is how to win.
3
Spin it anyway you want, but a loss is a loss.
23
Megan – We all know a loss is a loss. It’s the wave that’s interesting here. Might be a little less water in Sun City, but the flow just keeps coming.
8
Debbie Lesko is working with what is, in her district, a razor thin margin. And she has to be re-elected in November. She might be thinking twice about supporting all those things on Paul Ryan’s agenda that make those snowbirds unhappy. They love it when things are taken away from brown and black people, but howl like outraged cats when their entitlements are threatened.
10
Hard to tell how much of the district has actually reported, but it appears to be a 5.8% victory for Lesko. In a district which Trump carried by 21 points, and Romney by 25, IF the 6% or so holds then the story here is about massive Democratic over-performance...It would join other big over-performances in the past 6 months (SC, PA, AL, KS, CA, for example) and presage a very bad midterms for the Republicans, should things stay roughly stable in the political sphere.
238
Yes, at the moment, it looks as if Ms. Tipirneni won back 15 of the 21 points deficit inherited from the last Presidential election (thus, a 15% 'swing') - which if replicated nationwide would spell a rout.
22
You are right, Steve. If Lesko wins by a mere 6%, then heaven help Republicans in less red districts. Much credit goes to Tipirneni who ran a fine campaign with less money where no Democrats dared run in two previous elections. Grab your boards! The surf will be up in November.
3
But are we going to use this weakness to push actual policies, or just they to win Democratic seats that vote with Republicans.
Obama brought in s bunch of Blue Dog Democrats that refused to implement the party platform, and then all lost their next election. What is the point of that?
2
We need campaign finance reform. Nothing changes until we get the money (ie, criminality) out of elections at every level.
260
Time to face the truth: You need better candidates and a better message. Trump-Russia collusion is unappealing to most of the country.
5
Agreed, including outside money from Hollywood Democrats being poured into districts like AL and KS.
2
Yes we need a constitutional amendment that makes clear to the Supreme Court that:
Corporations are Not People and Money its Not Speech.
MoveToAmend.org
3