‘Orbanomics’: A Miracle for Hungary, or a Mirage?

"work that did not really need to be done" -- Can't we say the same about most of wall street and much of the American economy?

But critics argue that things are not as rosy as the traditional macroeconomic measures suggest? Hungary has started on a very low level after many decades of Communist rule. The economy has improved dramatically since then also with the help of the EU. Of course there still shortcomings and yes, the education system could be better. Still, what do you expect from someone who just had decades of lying on the floor? High jumps? It is a fact the Hungarians have voted for Orban a few times in a row and it also a fact that Orban is no saint. but what we see here is a demonization of a politician as he does not adhere to Western standards. We also see the fruit of a p.r. campaign of George Soros who built his money on attempts to topple currencies and who still has a number of issues with Hungary, his birth place. Let the Hungarians vote this weekend and let them decide. Nothing is worse for the outcome of an election if there is a shitstorm of good meaning people from far away places who know better than the locals. Let the Hungarians decide, which is what democracy is all about. After all, they will have to live with outcome of the elections for a few years to come. Democracy is a system in which the majority people are always right, even if their decision looks really bad for the spectators outside.

When Hungary had a soviet form of government, it was against law not to have a job. Therefor many extraneous jobs were created, which were really state supported featherbedding. With the demise of the soviet system, guaranteed jobs, and the sense of security they bring, ended, and Hungary entered into the 'brave new world' of fear for the future. Here Orban seems to be using the former regime's policy of jobs for everyone as a tactic to gain approval with Hungarian voters. We'll see if is successful at the polls and for the economy.

It appears that where Mr Orban adopts progressive policies as in jobs and pensions he has success; where he adopts right wing policies as in education and health he fails. Same as it ever was.

I wonder if our own government was evaluated using those criteria...paying people for jobs that don't need doing, forcing people into government benefit programs they are opposed to, channeling money to the cronies of party in power (yes, Solindra, I'm looking at you). I'm guessing we wouldn't do too well.

Many readers may be forgiven for not understanding the "real" economic "miracle" or rather "mirage". Hungary has one of the highest rates in Europe of citizens working for the government; however, unlike northern Europe, the 20 % who work for the government do not deliver real value to the economy. For example, under paid, over worked and poorly managed medical professionals can not hope to deliver the equivalent of high medical care that one might find in say Sweden. The article was accurate as to the state of public education; some of the same issues for doctors afflict teachers. Without the EU subsidies and the many Hungarians working outside of Hungary (read brain drain here), the economy would have tanked years ago. Moreover, the corruption level is very high and only further distorts the economy. Regarding the "public" employment of Roma/Gypsies, please readers, do not confuse with compassion, let alone providing a hand up out of poverty. The many issues compounding Roma poverty such as early childhood marriage, severe discrimination from the larger society, alcoholism etc. make this a difficult subject to address with out much more in depth reporting.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=fCxC August 4, 2014 Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Germany, Poland and Hungary, 2000-2016 (Percent change) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=fCxE August 4, 2014 Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Germany, Poland and Hungary, 2000-2016 (Indexed to 2000)

In European countries wishing to retain their rural culture, workfare programs like the one in Hungary are actually a wonderful 2 for 1 shot. It effectively enacts a minimum universal wage for those willing to put in a few hours and helps maintain a traditional way of life in an area where it would be lost. The rural villages in Italy which are emptying at an exasperating pace could desperately use such a program. I do not approve of many things Orban has done, but the workfare program is hardly part of my criticisms. To sum this up, a workfare program is not mutually exclusive to civil liberties

'...less than half the minimum wage, but roughly double what was paid out in unemployment benefits.' -- So the solution is to raise unemployment benefits? But to be acceptable, it must appear that work is being done for that -- and at least some is. This appears to be distinctly at odds with conservative economics. How is it this has led to a reduced deficit? Did taxes increase also?

"Mr. Orban has also benefited from the global economic revival." Top notch insight right there. I guess it doesn't count in Hungary. Only #Brexit Britain has not benefited from the global economic pickup.

Aggressive fiscal policy and making government the employer of last resort when there are no jobs to be had puts people to work, fixes infrastructure, gives people dignity, and benefits the entire country; even the Rich who opposed paying taxes to put people to work. That's what we learned from the Great Depression here, and why when we applied what we learned to administering West Germany and Japan after WW2, those economies have never hurt the working poor and very poor as badly as we have in the USA. Our unemployment rate is about 4% because the employee participation rate has fallen from over 66% to less than 63%. About 10 million people have left the workforce. Were to have had aggressive fiscal policy under President Obama, instead of the modified austerity imposed upon us by Republicans in Congress, those ten million people would not have left and over the past ten years, our total GDP -- for the 10 years added up -- would have been at least $10 trillion more. What have we lost from Republican Congresses NOT doing things like Orban did in Hungary? About $35,000 per capita -- enough money to give every adult who wants to go to college a four year degree at a state university and to give a new car to every household in the country that needed one.

Call it Workfare, or some other catchy name, but making people work for sub minimum wage is simply exploitation.

What miracle? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=iWOT August 4, 2014 Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China and Hungary, 2000-2016 (Percent change) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=iWOV August 4, 2014 Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China and Hungary, 2000-2016 (Indexed to 2000)

It is hard to be against WPA type social safety net programs and jobs for those who need to work. But they also raise serious questions. Are they financially sustainable? Is worsening performance in education and health linked to work program imposed budget constraints? Structurally, is anything being done to generate more productive jobs, especially in rural and small town areas? Let us hope that Hungarians are addressing more than symptoms and that European recovery gives them a boost. Orban has also undercut personal liberties, the courts, government, universities (Soros...), art, culture and media freedom in his drive to consolidate power. But a needy Hungarian populace will vote their pocketbooks before freedoms that personally do't touch them. We will have to wait a long time for the Hungarian populace to reach a level of well-being and learn to value once again human rights. That means that Orban populism is likely to be with us for a long time. Spurred by immigrant scapegoating, control of media and government resources and a friendly Russia there are few checks and balances on his brand of dictatorial populism. One need only look at Russia, Poland, Austria and even the US(!) to understand the allure of non-democratic governance for the forlorn and forgotten. Poor, beautiful Hungary. A shame they could not have jobs and Democracy together. But let's not make the mistake of thinking the two are antithetical. It matters very much who is in charge.

Why not give Orban some credit for this village working and getting some money for the work, whether "make-work" or not? Hungary has gone through so many changes that seeking some progress seems positive. The change from a command economy under the Soviets to a "free-enterprise" or capitalist country does not happen with words on paper. Hungary was lauded as having one of the stronger economies under its brand of "goulash communism" during the Soviet era, but a rocky time followed. Getting into NATO, or into the EU is a mixed blessing with Russia, as always, pushing on the East, South, and the flow of refugees from the MIddle East conflict did damage to the already vulnerable and weak economy. Tough to be a small country especially now, with the big boys always in charge: Germany, Russia, to lesser degrees Great Britain and France. Brexit will take a toll on Britain, and Germany, morally a strong step, has taken in milliions of refugees to assuage some of its past guilt. When I consider Trump's actions toward the southern border with those who are fleeing Central America and Mexico compared to Germany and other countries who have accepted those poor souls fleeimg their own brand of brutality and horror, I am saddened. And angered.

It's a little dubious to criticize worker employment as "work that did not really need to be done." What would the same labor economists have made of the WPA? One essential point of workfare is to get people "employed" in the broadest and most basic sense. And in the village discussed, the program seems to have doubled income for participants and to have added public goods (don't underestimate the value of a bridge to a community, better sports facilities for teen programs, and better drainage in a rural community).

This is a very biased article. Main reason being that an account of where Hungary was in 2010 in terms of its economic situation is completely left out. It leaves out the fact that Hungary was the first EU recipient of an IMF bailout. It leaves out the fact that a year before the 2008 global crisis, Hungary was already sinking economically, with out of control deficits & economic growth grinding to a halt. Therefore the argument that Hungary did not do better than it s regional peers is a false argument, because they cannot be compared in the first place. Hungary was looking more like PIGS countries in 2010. The only reason it was not included was because it does not use the Euro. The fact that it is now back to looking more like its regional peers is in fact the economic miracle. Also left out the fact that public works workers as well as foreign placement workers are both in decline in net numbers, as well as a lot of other facts. But what can one expect when the article refers to Hungary's government as being "far right".