What Special Elections Can’t Tell Us About a Democratic Wave

For those of us who believe “fake news” had a small but significant effect in the 2016 results, it is interesting to consider if continued instability-raising efforts by the Russians and any others are best served (in their view) by simply that—promoting both sides and thus exacerbating tensions and widening political gaps—or whether, sadly, whether simply electing more Republicans is sufficient to continue to destabilize the country. In other words, is the U.S. made weaker with Dems running Congress in opposition to Trump, or with the GOP continuing to run things. Doesn’t say much for the GOP that this might even be the case.

You say that absentee ballots help "a lot" in low-turnout special elections. What is "a lot" and what edge do absentee ballots provide in mid-term elections? Personally I believe an absentee ballot might be the safest way to vote, as it's a physical thing that must be counted.

Special elections are just that, special. It usually is much more difficult to get people out for those. The difference in the most recent cases is that because they were so special, in their singularity, the entire nation, courtesy of a 24/7 media, saturated the airwaves with coverage. It would be hard for someone in California not to know about the election in Western Pennsylvania. The true test will come when the unique event becomes the norm, hundreds of such contests. The media will concentrate on a select few as a bellwether. Thus, it all goes back to the electorate. Will a usually apathetic citizenry be activated? Will they make the decision to put their votes where their mouths and blogs are? The current political upheaval in this country says a resounding "yes". But again, after 2016, I remain a skeptic. Until that deadline, Election Day, arrives, I, who has been voting since '60 (JFK) am of the belief, "Hope for the best, expect the worse". I was taken aback in November '16. I hope in November 2018 it's the Republicans who are in for a rude awakening. DD Manhattan

Midterm elections have always favored the party out of power because the party out of power is very motivated to vote. In the end it all comes down to that one word: motivation. Are the republicans offering anything that will motivate people to get in their cars, stand on line and pull the lever...I think the answer to that is obvious. Someone not voting for a Republican because he isn’t motivated is what going to lead to sweeping democratic gains. Democrats can run on healthcare, protecting social security, and tax cuts that favored the wealthy. What exactly can the republicans run on.

I wouldn't make any major conclusions about the 2017 NJ elections turnout. Both parties' gubernatorial candidates had been uniquely uninspiring, and incumbents in the legislature are highly entrenched. It's amazing that so many voters bothered to show up at all...

Yes, turnout and incumbency may save the Republicans in November. One further factor that may help Republicans is Trump's unusual approval rating. It now, on day 425, stands at 41%. That doesn't look like a lot, but there are two odd aspects to it. First, his numbers have not gone down significantly since he became President, which isn't how it usually works. Second, and this is unique, his supporters are still enthusiastically supporting him. It's long enough until November that we can't even guess what it will be like then. Things could change in major ways.

Since the first contested elections in America the focus has been getting elected and re-elected with a lesser focus on serving all the people of the nation. partisanship overtook citizenship pretty early. To be sure, the current administration doesn't adhere to the norms that we have expected of presidents and elected officials during our lifetime. However, on the scale of history there have been presidents and legislators as well as party operatives that would make our 21st century skins crawl. America is an ongoing experiment in the ability of a people to govern themselves without some kind of dictator. So far, we have succeeded and I feel we will survive the current legislature and executive. We will also learn some lessons or we will declare that our experiment was a total failure.

As an armchair analyst, Cohn is probably correct. Much more is left unquestioned rather than explained though. Cohn can wait for election night. The rest of us trying to measure groundswell and where movements are gaining strength right now. That information is more useful than a long-form "I don't know." Sorry you were burned in 2016 but the fire should be lit again by now.

I predict Democrats will squander their electoral good will by doing bone headed things like voting to deregulate the banks, like Alabama darling Doug Jones. It really plays into the stereotype that both parties serve the rich with equal fervor and is likely to deflate excitement for them. Expect more Democrats vowing to sell you out to the 'right kind' of billionaire and wondering aloud why oh why young people still won't vote for them with the kind of enthusiasm they feel entitled to.

To the degree that Trump had a mandate, it was to shake things up in Washington, on behalf of the many Americans dissatisfied with the status quo. Democratic opposition to Trump, however energetic it may be, has to offer something new, different, not a return to a rejected status quo.

I may be saying the same thing as you in a different way but here is the way I look at it, the three things that could stop a Democrat wave election. 1-Events between now and Nov., re Trump's rifling of the treasury could be a temporary faux boon to the economy around November (before it eventually crashes). 2-Events around the world. Trump's buddy Putin could make him look good by giving him a temporary victory with No. Korea or America winning a made up war. 3-Democrats nominating identity obsessed, never met a war, Wall Street banker, trade agreement candidates like Hillary instead of somebody like Lamb.

Given Democrats typical lack of enthusiasm during off-year elections...I can see no reason why Democrats won’t be at least as (but likely more) enthusiastic for the mid-terms - especially with House and Senate majorities on the line. So long as the DNC can manage to get out of its own way and effectively and truthfully brand the GOP as the Party for the privileged few...it should be Christmas in November.

If Democrats aren't motivated to get out and vote given the current situation then we are doomed to become a kleptocratic police state just like Russia and China.

Failure of Democratic turnout is what turned the presidential election in Wisconsin. Trump and repeated Republican failures are proving to be the best friends the Democratic party ever had to ensure turnout, to get the young to vote and to get women running for office. That may prove the difference in the midterms.