Imagining a Post-Merkel Germany

For those unfamiliar with Herr Jochen Bittner or the newspaper, Die Zeit, Herr Bittner is an erudite editor employed by Die Zeit and is an astute observer of the political landscape in the Federal Republic of Germany. Die Zeit is a very serious and respected intellectual journalistic enterprise based in norther German City of Hamburg.

Please note that a comment from Luettgen has disappeared, but two replies to it from Realworld still appear here under Readers’ Picks. Please draw your own conclusions as to the amateurish manipulation of comments by the moderators.

Ms. Merkel wanted to have a coalition with SPD. CDU/CSU and SPD together acquired enough votes in 2017-Election. Mission accomplished. Then Mr. Schulz chickened out. Because there was no option at the moment she had to take chances on a 4-parties-coalition as different as fire and water. It failed as it was to expect for any reasonable "tecnicians of power". Her efforts were, say limited indeed. Anybody wonders? This "failure" took away all retreat areas and hiding places for Mr. Schulz setting him under unsufferable pressure of joint German society, German President and whole SPD establishment fearing new elections forcing Mr. Schulz to the negotiation table against his explicite will. Unspoken signal: "Look at this old turncoat - Mommy got this fool where she wanted to." Then Ms. Merkel brokered a - feasible - CDU/CSU/ SPD coalition in record time with the help of "rising stars" of SPD forcing Mr Schulz to advocate this deal he had pretended to hate like the devil hates the holy water. This was without any option under these conditions. "Alternativlos" as she always uses to say. "Turncoat" Mr. Schulz failed again at SPD convention, reliable (!) powers of SPD pulled the coals out of the fire. Coalition talks were approved, Mr. Schulz looked like a young boy and is going to be finished by his own party soon. So Ms. Merkel got her desired coalition in the end. Write your comments but never mess with this old lady when it´s getting really serious. Ask Mr. Schulz.

Merkel is not a typical Western leader, she's more of a backroom politician. She has survived by being cautious and sphinx-like. It is hard to determine whether she has a real vision for the EU. Her main aim seems to be to protect Germany's economic interests. This involves holding onto its massive trade surplus (8.5% of GDP), despite increasing opposition from the IMF and the US. The EU establishment is too scared to confront her on the issue. The EU is a valuable market for German exports and Merkel does not want that to change. The trade surplus is a function of an undervalued euro and relatively low wages in Germany. The Germans have managed to keep labor costs flat for a long time. The Germans need to increase domestic consumption. hey also don't believe in Keynesian economics. British leaders who have tried to engage with Merkel, like Cameron and Blair, have often received mixed signals. They think they have reached agreement only to find out later they were mistaken. The EU needs stronger and clearer leadership, but its member countries will only follow the Germans. The Germans don't seem to have anyone else.

This is the second article I have read by Jochen Bittner and I'm pretty impressed. I hope the New York Times will publish more of his articles. I count myself as one of the confused observers, who watched Merkel get elected so resoundingly by the German public only to be rejected by that same public almost immediately afterwards. From what I can see, Germans are rightly angry about what they see as nothing less than an invasion - but then, that still leaves the question of why the German public would re-elect the most prominent advocate of this massive wave of immigration that continues to this day. Perhaps Mr. Bittner could explain that in a future article.

Take this comment as one from an opinionated old academic, who really doesn't have the qualifications to render a "pundit" response to the article. The world is in grave crises, consider the warnings of scientists that we are facing serious threats of human extinction. The Chinese have two expressions for the word "crisis." 1. Danger and opportunity (a disputed English translation for the term). 2. G1reen and yellow not in sequence. The available grains (yellow) are already exhausted, the new crops (green) are not yet ripe. In this fraught period of transition, the world needs great leaders to steer us in the right course toward a desirable destination. As I view it, we need leaders like Chancellor Angela Merkel or high-minded, decisive leaders in Europe and in the world. But Merkel has serious disadvantages to continue as Germany Chancellor. My suggestion is to ask the German people to be patient and recommend Mrs. Merkel to groom some younger, photogenic, eloquent, charismatic, persons with the leadership qualities of Angela Merkel. Find these successors and anoint them. Germany, Europe, and the world do not need smart demagogues or "charming" charlatans for this critical times.

Once again many american commenter are completely entangled in their fox news bubble. Despite the million muslim "invaders" it is 4 times more likely to become a victim of an homicide in the US than in germany, what do you make of that ? Life expectance of white men in germany is 4 years higher than in the US. We are actually paying down our debts. And i know, we should spend more in military, we decided to spend more in easing the outcomes of people, who only can think in terms of military. We are doing fine, and we will shape the future of other countries while the US is devouring itself. We will become the nation that america once had been, when it had been the beacon of the free world. And do you remember how many americans died to fight the nazis - this was the spirit, that made america great. And about Merkel, her slow demise is not about refugees and europe, it is about her repulsion for populism. Even here in germany Trump has ten times more media-attention than her. Merkel always has been a bland technocrat, and for a long time we had been fine with that, but now it has become unbearable. Merkels unpopularity has much to do with her antipopulism stance.

Truth be told there are strong rumblings within Germany and the EU of anti-immigrant sentiment and regret. It is not all Kumbaya over there, far from it. It is not considered PC to display one's dislike for the immigrants or say anything offensive out loud. But privately the Germans, Austrians, Swedes and others are stewing mad. When it boils over, it will not be pretty.

Merkel's accomplishments should be celebrated, most significantly her ability to steer Germany, and the EU at large, through the financial crisis that began in 2008. That said, the refugee (though more accurately labelled economic migrant) crisis turned out to be an insurmountable political blunder. Add in the skyrocketing housing prices and wage stagnation that has been occurring in parallel.

As a 15 year American expat, I observe an European penchant to apply too easy solutions for complicated problems. There are one million refugees needing a new home, so Angela invites them all to Germany. European countries would like to receive more mutual trade benefits from each other, so they form an enormously bureaucratic European Union. The result is an increasing amount of baggage for Europe to drag around, at least until the weight becomes so great it drowns all the members together. Europe could reduce its problems if it remembered to say no when someone comes up with more simplistic solutions to complex problems!

"Had Ms. Merkel displayed more of the talent publicly, she could have spared Germany a good part of the rise of right-wing populism." Maybe what the NYT's labels as 'right wing populism' is just what the doctor ordered for Germany...and Europe. Before It's Too Late....France did NOT heed.....Now, the rest of Europe is.....deciding....Le Pen Tried to Warn Europe...Now this message goes for ALL of Europe..... One Picture Equals 1000 Words... https://www.flickr.com/photos/141620822@N02/33602290276/in/dateposted-pu... [read the excellent essay below the picture if you have time] [click the curved arrow in the lower right to share with a friend} [click the >< double arrow to enlarge}

It's almost as if politicians who work harder for non-citizens at the expense of their own citizens' safety and security suffer for it at the polls. Whodathunk it!

Judging by the positive German stock market the country expects Ms. Merkel to resign in the very near future. Germany feels that she has been around too long, times are changing, and new leadership in-the here-and-now is essential.

Angela W. Merkel, with her disastrous immigration policy where anyone who shows up and/or sneaks in is ok to stay has ruined Germany. You're seeing it already. In 20 years you won't recognize the place. It's no wonder that Britain went for Brexit. You want to immigrate to a country. Go to its embassy or consulate and apply. Learn it's history and language, drop the costumes and headgear, convince them that you want to be one of them. If you cannot do that then perhaps Germany and Europe are not for you.

This article appears to look to ambitious, ego-driven and charismatic leaders in France and Austria as if this is a new development to be sought after, rather than yesterday's news - a tried-and-true model that almost always sucks in the gullible and then fails. Perhaps that is because the assumption about what power is - "the ability to make others do what they'd rather not" - is also outdated.

Will Merkel become another Hindenburg, making unfortunate alliances with factional ideologues just to stay in office? How much better than US Republicans would she be then? Racism, Climate denial, an arrogant upper class and widening income disparity are all to be assiduously avoided. And when those unfortunate alliances force her out, what will become of Germany? Unless Germany can commit to Leftist, Green principals and move steadily to the left, it should stick with the boring, dedicated service of someone like Merkel.

I’m not exactly sure what is meant here by Mr. Bittner as to a “turning” for Merkel: she is who she is, and she’s not going to change much at this late stage. But If not a “turned” or “unturned” Merkel as chancellor, then who? -- In Merkel’s CDU party, no one has the public standing that she has. If she’s “lost her message”, who in her party has a message? (Or is it finally former finance minister Schäuble’s time, after being bypassed by Kohl and Merkel for chancellor during 40 years of public service?) --Martin Schultz came in as head of the Social Democrats with much fanfare, but has since fizzled. Anyway, the SPD just loses votes when it goes into “Grand Coalitions” with Merkel’s CDU/CSU. --Christian Lindner seems to have rescued the pro-business FDP from oblivion, but his party is a coalition member-type, not a coalition builder, --the Greens are losing votes, --the New Left is also losing support, --the right-wing AfD is the only one really gaining votes. But they are isolated in the Bundestag; no party would touch them with a 10-meter pole for coalition membership, and --the once up-and-coming Pirate Party seems to have reached its demise. If not Merkel, then who would be chancellor?

I expected a bit more from the author, a political editor. With such a personality, how did she survive this long? What are the basic changes in her approach or personality now? Or all along, the German voters did not have a good judgement in promoting such a leader?

Ms Merkel held her country together and guided it well during the recession. She may not be a show man but as we've seen here in America, slow and steady gets more done than someone who puts on a good show but has no idea what they're doing. If I had to choose between someone who is good at Twitter or good at governing I'd be a fool to choose the Twitter expert. She's made some misteps with the refugee crisis but no leader is perfect. Don't make the mistake we did here in the US by trading in a worker for someone who​puts on a better show. You'll regret it.

It seems Europe is suffering from trying to take care of people who are suffering from such things as Dubya's little war. I know someone who would demand Germany build a wall to keep the immigrants out. Maybe Mexico would pay for that one too.

The issue is that Germany has more than 500 thsd rejected asylum seekers who are not deported. Meanwhile the news are reporting daily about a kind of violence that we are unfamiliar with: for example teens stabbing an old couple because the lady should enter the building after the “men” (in Cottbus).

Based on the Trump experience I do not share your views that the World welcomes any leaders just because they can communicate 24 hours via social media. I doubt that Germans would welcome grammatically incorrect and meaningless communications such as" Cofveve". Middle and Western Europeans like stylel but not style without substance.

*smaller*, consensus-seeking “Volksparteien” (people’s parties) are in decline should be *larger*

It's funny to read the first three comments to this report: Americans fearing for Germany. Sure, Merkel might seem a strange politician in American eyes but she is still strong. She is doing politics out of the dark and showed to be be very magnanimous by taking in all this Near Eastern refugees, produced thanks to a failed, or should I say foolish, American foreign policy in Iraq. Of course, many German citizens didn't understand this: they showed signs that the butter is being taken from their bread. This is an ugly accuse to a government trying to fend off social extremes. The Social Democrats decided to form a new coalition in order to give Germany a stable government and to be able to push on the European idea. This is something very essential and isn't very estimated in the United States. Trump hates it, which is a pity (it shows what a deranged character he is, but he is eager to visit Kallstadt in the Palatinate). Personally I would have liked to see the Christian Democrats with their ridiculous, but big mouthed, appendix of the Christian Socialist aching in a minority government, but this might have given advantages to the AfD, our new right-wing party, and this must be avoided at any price.

There is one problem with European in general, and German political system especially. They are not real democracies. One may think of them as a mix of bureaucracy and liberal oligarchy. Despite people going to vote every 4 years, you can vote only for the same bunch of bureaucrats, you vote over and over again, for decades. People has no ability to project their power, there are no checks and balances, there are no power separation, as long as government appointed by parliament, and juridical authority is absolutely latent, dare challenging political elites only on minor, non essential issues. Within parliament itself members cannot vote openly on issues and must subdue to party discipline, where party management decide how entire fraction should vote on issue, this or another. Defacto, no matter how you vote, the same couple of dozens high-ranking officials from major parties decide , what happens in the country.

I disagree and don't share the alarming tone of the article. Don't underestimate Ms. Merkel. She's always been very good at keeping silence when speaking up doesn't gain anything. Her chancellorship is not at risk - not now, her greatest time may yet to come. Chancellor Merkel's history shows that she rather follows her own opinion than polls and the electorate (who ever that exactly is). Her international success proved her right many times and supported her national standing - at least did in many occasions. We are not talking Merkelism has no answers. We are talking common sense vs. short sighted populism. Mr. Kurz of Austria has not yet delivered his 'clear ideas on migration' as he promised his base. Mr. Macron hasn't accomplish much yet either. But both are young, fresh, photogenic and are talking a lot. Perhaps on the lang term there are other qualities in demand? If Germans start to see politics as a reality show and not like serious business we might end up like the USA today.

Germany, as in other EU countries, is facing a zero population growth and an aging population. Young immigrants bring a work force that will help pay out the payments to the elderly in the future. It is a tough row to hoe, but the prosperity of Germany may lie in this type of difficult decisions.

Merkel's permitting over a million immigrants into Germany was at best questionable. Didn't she realize the eventual cost of this "humanitarian" gesture would reach an outrageous cost of $31billion. That is a lot to ask of the German people to sacrifice. And it may well have been too much. She looks tired, annoyed, and possibly upset the German people don't show enough gratitude for her sacrifices. Maybe another national election would better serve her and the country.

Perhap Ms. Merkel could speak up more about migrants but it's not likely to win her any points since she is held to blame already. I would be more concerned about NATO, Putin, and Trump and glad to have her leadership. With Europe's aging population the positive side to migrants is that young workers are needed.

Populism over pragmatism, that's what people demand and that's what people shall get. Germany is just 10 years behind the curve. I wonder if that is enough time to learn lessons from Brexit and Trump disasters. I hope that by then people will actually look up and see repercussions of their vote instead of relying on emotionally charged instinct. Yes, Merkel has been relying too much on institutions and established laws. Things needs to change quickly to prevent another Trump getting elected in Germany now. And this needs to happen because people are not rational. People need to feel positive. And now they feel let down even if they are better off than at any time in history. Spoiled kids. All of us.

Accepting so many refugees in 1995 was a big crime against German people. It costs Germany at least 30 billion euro a year. That's going in the country where nearly 20 percent of population earn a minimal wage. The one who earns minimum in Germany, still pay 25% of taxes. Many issues suddenly appeared over recent years, e.g. skyrocketing housing prices, transport and healthcare collapse, frozen wages, and growing crime. None of them was openly addressed. Everything is revolving around refugees and keeping EU intact.

Ambition is attractive when the people like where your ambitions lead and have the energy to follow. Does the German electorate (or the US electorate, for that matter) have a common aim and the will to pursue it? I don’t think so.

I wonder how much of Merkel's silence was induced by the knowledge that the CIA is listening in on her every public and private conversation? One of her "staunchest" allies, Obama, was monitoring her every breath over her private phone, yes? So, we, here in the USA, without enemies on all sides of our borders, might want to recognize the importance of not making too much noise for others to mis-interpret.

Ah yes, any fiery young photogenic man who displays “ambition” is a lot more fun than a reticent old blonde with a bowl haircut. Angela Merkel knows something about German history ... including the history of East Germany under the Soviets. This helps explain her generosity to immigrants and distrust of the Far Right. Macron? He offers bold dashing ideas and nice suits, and orders people around like a Little Prince. Kurz? He doesn’t mind the Far Right, is prepared to make deals with them, and doesn’t worry much about their intentions so long as they don’t stand between him and the photographers. Neither one of these cocky young men yet seriously understands negotiation, compromise, history ... and the humiliations experienced by any leader of a functioning democracy. Of course they’ll learn, the hard way, which is how everybody learns (except Donald Trump). I picture these young leaders sitting at little desks with Angela at the podium, chalk in hand. She may well be tired and ready for this class to end. Germany should be grateful to her. We should all be grateful to her.

Germany's fatigue is the result of political deadlock and an inability to correct serious mistakes made by Ms. Merkel. She instigated the mass migration crisis which is wreaking havoc on the German people. She is actively persecuting critics of her decision to invite millions of Muslim migrants to Germany. And she doubled down on the Euro and the EU, which have economically devastated southern Europe. Collectively, Germany is tired of Ms. Merkel, but is afraid to change. Germans understandably crave stability and want to atone for past militarism, but they need to correct Merkel's mistakes and move on.

What you're really saying that Merkel and Germany being the "new" leader of the liberal Western democracies was always a fevered delusion of the left; and that the only truly indispensable nation has been and will continue to be President Trump and his United States.

From our side of the Pond as they say, it is unclear, without Merkel, if Germany can still mange the EU. The German mind is not one to sink into disarray. No wold swings to the right or left are expected but just muddling along void of leadership and who knows where the rest of the EU goes. The Brits are out as we know.

Sober assessment of Germany's predicament, the need of somebody that can infuse passion in politics, add emotion to Merkel's reasoned approach that seems to have worked fairly well for the European Union's stability thus far. Remember Venezuela's charlatan Hugo Chavez, with his hours long diatribes on a weekly basis to move his 'troops'? Or Trump's demagoguery in insulting and demeaning 'the others' when rabble rousing his 'base'? Just wondering if Ms Merkel, an honest broker, and a pragmatic one at that, could establish a weekly lively round of discussing the burning issues of the moment. It would make folks happy, or at least content in watching someone in power not take herself too seriously, accept and mend errors that by force will occur, and offer a smile in the process. New blood will come soon enough; why not make this moment count for something?

Such a long prolonging to form a government after lost election is a typical ' Merkelian' symptom.A democratic norm and respect for the will of the people demand that so many failed negotiations with other share holders , that Mrs Merkel ought to step aside.It is high time that she does now without any further denting her and CDU democratic credibility. Mrs Merkel ruled for 12 years with her persona of 'quiet or silence',never letting the others learn what is in her mind on a particular issue.She is credited for overriding the opinion of her political partners,irrespective of their political belief or shade.Such a tactic has proved disaster for the Social Democrats with whom she ruled in the last coalition government.That is why Social Democrat ,rank and file,are totally opposed for another coalition with Mrs Merkel ,CDU.Although ,negotiation continues with staunch opposition from the grassroot members of the CDU.Certain age of uncertainty looms large, even if SPD leadership snatch a deal with Mrs Merkel, for another coalition.Whether it will be acceptable to its large base within its rank and file at a price of existential threat! Under such a scenario,it is advisable that Mrs Merkel realizes that her type of governance and her brand of neo-liberalism is no more favorable for SPD,neither the larger Gertman citizens.Hence,wisdom demands Mrs Merkel to accept that her time is up and make a room for a new leadership to take over the CDU.

Merkel never was much for participating openly in power struggles. She's more the announcer of a horse race. After the race she announces the winner and thus is always right. This is how she evaded conflict and blame. This is how she maintained "power": By not exercising it publicly. With such a strategy it is hard to influence the public opinion in any particular direction.

Imagining a Post-Merkel Germany? Danke, lieber nicht. Rather a sphinx who has the intelligence and the patience to study a situation before committing to a plan of action. Macron and Kurz may be overflowing with the enthusiasm of youth, but both need a wiser head in these unsettled times to steer the ship of state to the center. Centrifugal forces in Europe (and the world) need someone to slow the spin, and Mutti has both the will and the quiet perseverance that are ideal for such a task. She's a remarkable woman. We can only hope that the Social Democrats will somehow get their act together and spare Germany the agony of another election in the spring.

Another article trying to convince Angela Merkel to be old and tired. Is this a poitical ploy? It's reminiscent of Rumsfeld's "old Europe." It seems to me, admittedly an American, that the Chancellor's actions--anti-war, accepting refugees with all the consequences, getting rid of nuclear power--stand for something good in this world. I don't trust the "vision" of the business parties who are pushing technology for profit much too fast, in my opinion. They're driving an unhealthy competition among countries who would do better to collaborate.

We could "loan" Germany Donald Trump. Nothing is quite as mind clearing as the thought of living in a perpetual state of crisis with a leader who not only causes them, but revels in the chaos.

Bittner has been predicting the demise of Merkel for years. I'll believe it when I see it.

"If one European, after all, has reason to be tired, it is Ms. Merkel." But her drive for stability is greater than her fatigue. She realises how volatile the current situation is in Europe and around the world, and she seeks to contribute to securing global security. Merkel is being projected as somebody boring, lacking vision etc. Many people let themselves be impressed by braggadocio instead of sobriety and level-headedness. After 12 years in office Merkel has proven to be a statesman, not just a number that makes up the list of Germany's chancellors. Of course she has made mistakes, which makes her vulnerable to attacks from her detractors. Let's hope she will remain in office for the very last time, so that she can bring about the reforms necessary that pave Germany's way into the future, and be a bulwark of liberal values in the West.

Post-election coalition formation difficulties, and the immigration sensitivies of the Germans, and shared by Europe too in general, do suggest that there's little space for the sauve and urbane leaders like Angela Merkel in the intolerant and anxieties filled climate of Germany foolishly looking for the quick fix solutions to everything from Eurozone crisis, refugee and migrant influx, Russian threat to Ukraine and East Europe to even the war against terrorism. Under the changed circumstances its better Angela Merkel withdraws voluntarily in favour of the leadership change or advises for the fresh General election.

Be careful of what you wish for, my German friends. We Americans speak from experience. More than once, we had a pragmatic president and we threw it away. And look at what we got now. When you are governing, you have to give up poetry for the prose. That's okay. Like what President Obama. But not everyone is a poet to begin with. Chancellor Merkel held the line against the right wing onslaught when the fall of the domino seemed inevitable. Sure, that was then and this is now. No one should sit on one's laurel. However, don't jump from the frying pan into the fire. We Americans have experienced this painful experience a couple of times since the start of the 21st Century and the self-inflicted wound won't be healed anytime soon.

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany’s government expects to spend around 93.6 billion euros by the end of 2020 on costs related to the refugee crisis, a magazine said on Saturday, citing a draft from the federal finance ministry for negotiations with the country’s 16 states. The figure is likely to stoke concerns, particularly among growing anti-immigration movements, on the impact of new arrivals on Europe’s largest economy which took in more than a million people last year, many from Syria and other war zones. The report said that 25.7 billion euros ($29.07 billion) would be needed for jobless payments, rent subsidies and other benefits for recognized asylum applicants by the end of 2020. The federal government and the states are at odds over the costs of the refugee crisis and how much Berlin should pay out. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-costs/german-... It was at Ms. Merkel’s urging that many migrants from distressed parts of the world came streaming toward Europe, with two already struggling countries, Greece and Italy, bearing a significant part of the strain, being the first countries entered. Much of the blame for the disruption and severe lack of planning falls to her, and her inability to look realistically on its impacts not only on Germany but on surrounding nations, and vastly underestimating the long term costs and difficulties.