If Jones is getting 18% more voters in Republican areas, it is not just the improved minority voter turnout. This represents a distinct change in the Republican voter. Perhaps the old white men have finally worn out their welcome in the male dominated households of the Republican home.
Go Republican Girl, vote your principles instead of your husbands.
I thought Nate mentioned this in the article, didn't he? I'm sure I can find it.
. . .
Ah — it's here, in paragraph 9: "Mr. Jones won 18 percent more raw votes in Shelby County than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, and it is not plausible to suggest that he did so by tapping into Democatic voters who didn't turn out in the much-higher-turnout presidential race.
It should also be noted that the 18% figure was for Shelby County only, not the redder counties of the state as a whole. Further, like Nate mentioned, caution should be exercised for the Alabama election, not least because the Republican electorate nominated, and the Washington party openly endorsed and funded for the general election, a borderline child molester who celebrated Alabama standing up for its rights — during the Civil War (I kid you not: bit.ly/2CL3UFl) — to become the Alabama delegation's newest US Senator.
Nevertheless, Alabama was a state that voted for Trump by a margin of 28 percentage points in 2016, and we should view this victory in conjunction with the other elections of the past year (two excellent reads on the subject, should you have the time: 53eig.ht/2DcR2sk; 53eig.ht/2CJvTFc).
A tsunami appears to be upon us, and from here, the tsunami looks a deep, rich navy blue.
I think the lesson here is that the Dems have to get out the minority vote, mainly blacks and Hispanics. No sensible minority will vote for Trump, but unless they go to the polls its almost as bad as if they did. The goal is less to persuade the electorate your candidate is the best choice but to motivate him or her to cast their vote.
Would someone PLEASE analyze and write on the impact of voter suppression in some of the red states? It's difficult to get turnout when the deck is stacked to prevent black voters from voting in the first place.
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Since the advent of the so-called Southern strategy, the electoral success of Republicans at both the federal and state levels has been based on winning a gradually increasing proportion of white voters, across gender and class divisions. Race has become, over class and gender, the strongest voting determinant.
In 2016, Donald Trump topped off this trend by winning a majority of white women voters against a well qualified white woman running to become the first female President after the Access Hollywood tape came out and he was then accused by a dozen women of making unwelcome sexual advances, and he dismissed them all as liars.
Age is now the second strongest determinant. Young people under 35 years, when they bother to vote, choose Democrats; the elderly, voting in higher numbers, choose Republicans.
If the turnout of young people of all races and class backgrounds can be increased in 2018 and 2020, and a majority of young whites vote for Democrats, that represents the best hope that America's ugly political polarization along increasingly racial lines can be reversed.
5
After Alabama vote, it is clear that Republicans need to step up their gerrymandering and vote suppression.
1
“Republicans count on rural white voters to cancel out well-educated, liberal Democratic enclaves.” Love how only liberal democrats are the only well educated voters referenced in your article . I have a college degree and have zero interest in supporting Jones due to his stance on abortion. I also didn’t vote for Moore b/c I think he is incompetent to successfully accomplish anything positive in Washington so I chose to abstain from the election. I think this narrative is why Mr. Jones was able to win our great often looked down updates n state.
As a Dem I wish this were true. If these were two typical GOP and Dem candidates it would be believable, but these were likely the most atypical candidates. African American enthusiasm was bound to be higher given the fact that Jones was a civil rights hero and Moore was an obvious turnoff to educated conservatives even ignoring the sexual allegations. Nate mentions this didn't happen in Virginia or Georgia, so one cannot say it bodes anything.
1
It is infuriating that Dems can't seem to figure out how to get black voters to the polls in any election not involving Barack Obama. The horrible state of affairs in Wisconsin is directly attributable to the refusal of blacks in Milwaukee to be bothered to go to the polls-I.D. requirement or no I.D. requirement. One of the stories I read this morning made the point that Ossof made little effort to bring out the black vote in the Georgia Congressional election earlier this year. What is so complicated about getting out the vote in districts that you KNOW are strongly Dem? THANK YOU Charles Barkley for your efforts in Alabama. Now let's try to win an election not involving a pedophile.
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Jones successfully prosecuted murdering KKKers long overdue for justice and Roy Moore thought America was better off during slavery and that the equal rights amendment wasn't necessary.
I hope Black voters continue to turn out because they are key to defeating Trumpism and the sellout to GOP donors, but you have to acknowledge that Alabama was not quite a typical case of white GOPer against white Democrat.
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With all other things being equal the two biggest things the democrats can do to take back one or both houses of Congress in 2018 are.
1-Get out the vote campaign like they did in Alabama with clear cut reasons they should come out to support things they are for and help them in their state like ACA, killing the republican welfare tax bill, infrastructure spending and yes keeping good paying blue collar jobs in America with common sense legislation not being a demagogue like Trump etc.
2-The way to do #1 if not to nominate identity obsessed, never met a war, Wall Street banker, trade agreement candidate I did not like, like Hillary. Instead nominate progressive, populists.
1
There are plenty of analyses being done. This election result has many considerations, i.e., voter restriction, a historical red state status and very important, angry voters who have been shut out from the poling places, and importantly in terms of this particular election, a sense of honor that was displayed in the face of a very suspect candidate.
These are all considerations that must be reckoned with in future elections.
Could it be that the educated thinking Republican is starting to see the light of reason and will break from their brethern? It will be interesting to see if the trend continues . There is still a lot of work for Democrats to reach what used to be their base, the entire working class.
1
The national media does not seem to be aware of the grassroots work in Alabama which impacted on turnout for Doug Jones.
“It is difficult to read too much into the results of this election, given that Mr. Moore was such an unusually weak candidate.”
Yes, and also unusually open and honest approach to his racist views and the seemingly credible accusations of pedophila.
How does that all play into this trend analysis?
I am afraid our friend Mr. Cohn is getting somewhat carried away here. I would suspect, aside from the potential economic impact, blacks in Alabama turned out in numbers out of a realistic fear of what their state would have turned into had Roy Moore been elected and I am sure they would prefer not to return to the 1850s. Certainly Moore is a polarizing, despicable character who would have been an embarassment in the senate to both the state and the party, however, because Jones is essentially a "centrist" somewhat non-descript member of the mainstream democratic party, that shows little, if any, in the way of progressive policies, it is clear a Republican without Moore's enormous baggage, would have probably defeated him.
Democrats STILL have considerable work to do.
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So many incidental factors affected the election. The immediate big winners seem to be Alabama voters who get Democrats talk well of them and Mr. Jones. The immediate big losers are of course Roy Moore and likely Al Franken. Some say it is a win for Republican senators and loss for Steve Bannon. As for the longer-term effect, no one knows, which would be interesting to watch.
A piece on turnout patterns without a figure for the turnout?
I think too much has been inferred by this narrow margin win. It took a) Money++ b) A continuous flow of media accounts of Moore's misdeeds (most important) c) Democratic operatives from all over chipping in d) The notion of lost business in AL (see b) to render this slim margin. Alabamians did things they don't normally do (b again) to put Jones in office. It is unlikely to happen again. The only 'Tide' in AL is a crimson one.
3
A good start. ! Heads up people. In 3 months there is a special election for US House District 18 in Pa. to fill the vacant seat that disgraced ultra pro-life Tom Marino gave up after he was caught suggesting to his mistress that she have an abortion...... Dems have a Good candidate, Connor Lamb, and a registration edge. The GOP has put up a self proclaimed " original Trump" who has strong NRA ties. Definitely winnable!!! Keep your eyes on this.
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I think one should not overlook the moral dilemma facing many evangelicals, having to prioritize pedophilia or abortion and to square it with their beliefs as they vote. Perhaps their hypocrisy only goes so far.
Mr. Cohn, I'm hoping that party leaders are aware of your opinion and consequently may notice comments such as mine.
Here's an important "take away" from the Alabama election. Voters need a REALLY compelling reason to get out and vote. In this case, the GOP, by fielding a blatantly immoral candidate, provided a NEGATIVE reason that motivated DEM voters.
However, that is rarely the case in most races. Unfortunately the DEMs can't rely on the GOP fielding alleged child molesters as a norm. The DEMs need to develop messages and candidates that provided a positive and VERY compelling reason to vote for DEMs.
I'm overjoyed at the Alabama results, but not confident that this indicates any important shift in voter behavior in general.
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Don't forget that 15% of black Alabamians are ineligible to vote due to past convictions. The gender split of inmates makes this translate to about 28% of black men being ineligible. Ineligibility for whites is about 5% overall.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/05/opinion/the-movement-to-end-racist-vo...
2
No concession speech from Roy Moore yet. I know he's busy though because the mall opened at 10.
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I'd be careful extrapolating too much from this race. The Democrats are unlikely to face an alleged pedophile again. What we know is that Democrats can turn out black voters if they're courted rather than ignored as in the Ossoff race.
But white voters could behave differently with a different pair of candidates. Downscale rural evangelicals stayed home rather than crossover to an abortion-rights supporting Democrat. Less religious suburban and college-town Republicans did not have such qualm. The pattern of the whites in Alabama matched their reaction to the demagogic campaign of Gillespie in Virginia.
But New Jersey showed something different -- it was the downscale South Jersey whites who shifted back to Murphy from Trump while the upscale suburban North Jersey Republicans who moved towards Guadagno after supporting Clinton. Candidates matter.
1
C'mon Nate. You've produced some excellent plots in the past. But on this plot, where 4 axes are represented, only two are labeled. What do the size and shade of the dots represent?
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Add to this bad policies which decrease chances of getting crossover voters... they lied about having better healthcare, tax cuts will cater to corporations and the top 1%, the debtr will rise, and Trump's $1 trillion Infrastructure Plan may use $200 billion of fed funds to encourage states to get the other 80% by increasing taxes/fees at the state level. We'll have better details by midterms, and results of all this should be apparent by 2020.
More money from donors won't offset negative effects for the middle class - the top 1% don't provide enough votes to win elections, and these policies will have disproportionate consequences for poorer red states.
4
To early to tell if this is a "sea change" for Democrats, especially in the South. More likely is that Alabama is still a reliable red state but the accusations against Roy Moore were credible - depressing Republican turnout and mobilizing the overwhelming Democratic African American voters in Alabama. Almost any other Republican candidate would have won with double digits over Jones or any other Democratic candidate - with or without an endorsement from Trump. So Democrats should keep the Champagne on ice until some more reliable data emerges supporting a likely Democratic "wave" election in 2018
10
The one lesson that I sincerely hope that the Democrats are learning is the tremendous importance of thoroughly vetting their candidates. Put our best, our brightest forward and let's take back this country and set it on a course more in line with the highest of our aspirations.
11
Unfortunately, within the past several years, in losing almost 1100 seats at the local, state and federal levels, democrats displayed(and still do)that they are more interest in collecting big donor, corporate dollars than they are in choosing candidates that have the best chance of winning elections.
Jones got lucky, this time. He will have to run again in 2020 and, in choosing their candidate, I am sure Republicans will not repeat the Moore debacle.
2
Too much verbiage and muddied comparison; What percent of voters turn out for Jones/Moore election overall and by district? Using this 2014 yardstick is not helpful. A comparison to similar types of elections is appropriate going back a lot longer than 3 years.
1