Nice article, and a great example of how shifts in climate can provide positive and negative result in the same place - more water, but pests invading as mountain cold becomes less of a shield, similar to how our northwestern forests are suffering from greater beetle infestations as killing winters become less dependable.
Andean nations will have to carefully plan what to do when this short-term windfall ends, and larger populations who'd moved to deserts face the return of desert conditions. Syria's civil war appears to have started largely because an extreme drought (1998 through 2012) pushed small farmers into poverty and into the cities, which couldn't meet the needs of the new arrivals.
The drought was the worst in the area for 900 years, and research indicates that natural cycles were pushed farther by changes from our greenhouse impact.
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/nasa-finds-drought-in-eastern-...
Peru should take advantage of the bright sunlight and cooler mountain temperatures for solar power generation in advance of when the continuing melt makes their hydropower investments less dependable. As for water, they'd better plan for losing reliable supply in any area historically fed by seasonal mountain ice melt.
1
We have lots of Peruvians in my area. Hard workers, big families with lots of new arrivals and overjoyed to be in the USA. Until mankind gets a grip on population control things are only going ro get worse. We have 7 billion and maybe sustainable resources for 3 unless we figure out fusion power.
5
Im sorry. I am English learner.
in a clause: A changing climate has long haunted Peru.
Why 'A'? 'Climate' is an uncountable noun. Is it a mistake to tell just "Changing climate has long haunted Peru" ?
3
we are committing mass suicide. the cumulative effect of the global interdependence of food sources and their failure caused by global warming will produce the catastrophe. the only solution is to immediately reduce the population by 50% and hold it there forever. Castration and spaying must be enforced.
3
Beyond the tragedy of what is happening to the Peruvian ecosystem, the irony of the asparagus that winds up in the central Wyoming Safeway is that it has no true taste. I think folks must buy it because it looks like May/June when placed on their January dinner plate. This lack of flavor is applicable to the other South American produce offerings, which our household avoids at all costs.
5
Gorgeous photography and a chilling glimpse of a devastating future.
5
Thank you for this interesting story and great photos.
Now, that's a new destination for me to visit.
Weather changes are everywhere.
I just spent 6 months of summer in UK.
Brits ever sensitive to weather are reporting changes over the years - especially how June is now hotter than summer months of July and August.
Likewise, they are reporting warmer October than they remember.
8
Regarding photo. I think they are planting asparagus not harvesting. ???
6
It indeed is a cruel irony that irrigated agriculture in this region is only coming into its own when the meltwaters are receding. However, the assertion that accelerating glacial melt facilitated irrigation in the first place is suspect. In the absence of evidence to the contrary (and your story presents none) it seems more likely that irrigation was always feasible but was only made possible by infrastructure investments in the 1980s.
9
Fifteen years ago a billionaire I know started to consider the aqusition of water companies. The Times and other sophisticated publications began to examine the geopolitics of water.
The scientisits at the natural world nonprofit I worked for talked to me abot the acceleration of climate change abroad and here in our own backyard.
There will be wars over water--in fact there already skirmishes in our own country. The future requres drastic change. Where is the leadership? Certaibly not in our White House or in our industries or in ourselves.
30
There is more leadership now then the last president for sure. Funny how this was not a problem before liberals found they could make money on it. Millionaires fly all over the world burning jet fuel just to push this agenda.
When the glaciers and the snow melt disappear in the Sierras, what will we do?
7
Desalination using nuclear power.
3
Hahahahaa.
I hope that was irony.
I really do.
No - when the water is gone the youngest and fittest will leave in order to survive - those left behnd will eventually starve.
If anything we should be rapidly decommissioning nuclear stations while we still have the skills and infrastructure to do so.
1
FTFY:
Desalination using solar power.
2
It's great that the agriculture boom has enabled the Peruvians to build infrastructure and improve their lives, but there's absurdity in the use of so much fossil fuel for trans-world produce shipping, which contributes to the increasing greenhouse gas conditions that are ultimately depleting their water supply.
Even here in the PNW with its historically abundant rain, trends suggest a future water crisis. We still get plenty of winter rain, but our snowpack doesn't last as long, so we're losing more in runoff, and the glaciers in the Cascades are receding too. This year we had record setting summer drought in Seattle, and we've had repeating years of summer dryness unheard as recently as the 80's. There were so many fires to the north, east and south of Puget Sound this summer that we had "smoke" forecast days and air quality matching China's.
16
There’s no real snow at any of the ski resorts here in Utah. We have had .5 inches of valley snow this season.
What else do climate change deniers want as a “sign” that this is real? I mean 70-bleeping-degrees at the end of November is an act of God in my book.
10
Eli, thank you for that information. I heard that in Mammoth Mountain, California they were skiing, and I assumed if they were skiing, you'd be skiing, too. By the way, we had 100 degree temperatures the first of November and 90 degree temperatures this last Monday and Tuesday. This is in the San Fernando Valley, Los Angeles. We've had no rain since spring time. I remember one Halloween, October 31st, 25 years ago we had so much rain it kept the children inside from Halloween.
Maybe we're headed for another 5 year drought.
4
@Steve
Brighton was open then it closed again because it wasnt staying cold enough to avoid the snow melting faster then they could male it. Snowbird is open but making all their snow at a frantic pace and only running one lift. I saw the news about MM being open, but they looked like they’re making most of that snow too. I /think/ even Jackson Hole is having to supplement their snow.
It’s bizarre to see. I half think they’re in a situation where they’re trying to have something for all those people who booked vacations months and months ago. :/
Least ya’ll in Cali have a state gov that might actually invest in water capture technology BEFORE the drought makes it too little too late.
3
There is probably nothing to worry about. When the water disappears the people will move on. Later on the ice will return and the people will be living elsewhere. In North America when all the glaciers melt the water will significantly reduce the size of America. This will surely happen and it is too late to prevent it. Good luck to us all. Golf ball sized Blueberries though; I haven't seen any of those in the fruit stores around Forest Hills.
5
The bigger a blueberry is, the less taste it has. I prefer wild Maine blueberries which are tiny, seasonal, and incredibly tasty.
7
ever hear about something in the northern US called the "Great Lakes" ?... five basins caused about 12,000 years ago by melting ice sheets...happened many times thruout earth history, as did human adaptation to their new environments... but knowing about that would require an understanding of geologic history - and today's "climate scientists" are too busy and/or political to be bothered by anything that took place before the last 100 years
9
The disrespect you show by framing the words client scientists in quotes is both sad and nonsensical. They are scientists. The climate is changing. What you don't understand, apparently, is that the rapidity of this global warming is unlike anything the planet has every seen in billions of years. And that's because there'e too many of us ... blowing too much hot air.
37
Yeah...you're aware that these are mountain glaciers, that the Great Lakes formed in low basins, and that water runs downhill, right? Or that the Great Lakes are constantly replenished by copious precipitation and continent-scale drainage networks? If I credited the sincerity of your motives, I'd ask you to identify precisely the basins you think would fill, and how they'd be fed.
20
yes, the climate is changing...and that's my point: it always has ...take just one of hundreds of examples: El Capitan Reef was formed in shallow Permian seas - but sits today in the middle of a vast W. Texas desert... but that statement is a scientific fact, whereas your comments on "rapidity...in billions of years" and "there's too many of us" are only merely non-scientific assertions, driven by a political narrative that chooses to ignore geologic history
1
I read this article expecting some mention of John Mercer and Lonnie Thompson. They first went to Lima and from there to the Quelccaya ice cap in 1974. Over decades of research, Lonnie Thompson would document the retreat of this, and all the other glaciers he would survey and core at low latitudes around the world.
This doughty scientist, this enduring man has left a mark on paleoclimatology as strong as the striations in granite made by the Wisconsian ice age in my own, native New England.
It is a good article. The failure to cite the work and sacrifices of a great man must diminish it. Would you write of the finches of Galapagos and omit the name of Darwin? Lonnie's stature in the science of glaciers is that of a Titan among other, mortal men. No matter the reason for this (inconceivable) lapse, they should hurry with all speed to include his name and achievements in an addendum. He has been the canary in the coal mine that is the scientific record of the retreat of glaciers around our earth.
18
Agreed, Eric Williams, that Lonnie Thompson's name should have appeared in the article but its absence does not invalidate the article's general premise.
1
Thank you to Nicholas Casey and Tomas Munita for this visually striking piece on the uncertain benefits and tragedies in store for Peru and its changing landscape.
Perhaps of interest to readers: I am one of several artist-scientist teams working on projects related to Peru's Quelccaya Ice Cap, the largest tropical ice mass in the world.
A Chicago-based filmmaker/animator, I am collaborating with glaciologist Dr. Andrew Malone on a film that compares the scale of dwindling Quelccaya with the "measuring stick" of Chicago, to make distant changes more accessible to North American city dwellers. You can see some of our “Scaling Quelccaya” images, satellite-based animation, and process here:
http://meredithleich.com/animation/scaling-quelccaya/
Anthropologist Gustavo Valdivia and musician Tomás Tello have been recording / making music of the sound of Quelccaya melting:
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/gvyjmm/the-sounds-of-the-plan...
Photographer Ian van Coller has been photographing Quelccaya and other ice masses beautifully annotated by several scientists:
http://your.ianvancoller.com/the-transparency-of-ice
As this NYTimes article demonstrates, the issues are complex and will affect many people. The more of these nuanced stories we can tell, broadcast, and internalize, the better.
27
In 100 years Peru, Mexico and Texas will be a desert... while Canada and Siberia bloom. Time to get a plots in Wekweti or Yakutsk.
4
Actually, you'd like to think it would be possible to move to Canada, or Siberia, but crops need "topsoil" to grow and it takes 100's of years to 1000's of years for mother nature to make topsoil.
9
Topsoil is important, however, it appears that water and fertilizer are more important as the two key ingredients in the agricultural miracle in the sands of the deserts of northern Peru. I would say there is good hope for Canada and Siberia.
The people of Peru are being pressured to adapt to climate change on a time-scale that seems compressed compared to earlier periods of imposed adaptation. Now, some regions have gone from desert to areas of lush grazing and cultivation, yet and end to that phase may already be in sight. While Bury referred to the region as a frozen water tower, Tibet has been called the water tower of the world. And that tower is also emptying as the balance of precipitation and melt-water run-off change with rising temperatures. The Himalayas may also affect weather patterns in Europe via the cooling of air-flow over the highest mountains in the world. Perhaps, the frozen mountain tops in the Andes also have some such local affects on climate.
8
Sad picture, that of swindling sources of water, a phenomenon we see also in Bolivia, where at least one village in the highlands had to abandon their land for lack of water. Climate changes are ongoing and in need of curtailment by switching from oil to renewable energy sources. China and the United States are the main polluters in the world and are not doing enough to help (especially while Trump and Pruitt continue to abuse their power in denying climate change...in spite of all the evidence).
16
I wonder if we can send Trump over to the International Court and try him for "Crimes Against Humanity"?
3
Prof. Bury calls glaciers "frozen water towers," a nice image, which will lead the perceptive reader to ask how the water tower is refilled, since as everyone knows a water tower only holds enough water for a very limited time's usage.
This in turn leads to the question of whether precipitation, which before global warming turned into glaciers, will stop.
Figuring that, no, global warming changes the pattern of precipitation but hardly ends it, the reader will ask whether the water will still flow downhill like glacier melt, despite global warming. If it does, then a constructive approach might figure that what's needed in the future is man-made water towers or reservoirs, given that glaciers won't do the job much longer.
2
Your assumption is incorrect. The glaciers hold water precipitated over thousands of years, and the accelerated melt runoffs these days represent as much as centuries of ice per year. When the glacier is gone, the runoff will be a trickle, even assuming the same rates of precipitation that built the glaciers in the first place.
23
I'm glad that the water has created better livelihoods for the farmers in the region. A Godsend is a Godsend regardless of the gloom some cast on the future. The truth is that no one knows what the future will hold, least of all the NY Times who cannot even predict the results of a national election one day ahead of time.
4
If you're emptying a 1000 year reservoir at a rate which is replenished each year, then that is a sustainable practice. If you're emptying a reservoir at ten times the rate that it is replenished, your grandchildren will suffer. If you're emptying that reservoir at 100 times the replenishment rate, your children will suffer.
If you install scientifically ignorant cretins into positions of power, none should be surprised when science bites back.
Some things can be predicted.
31
Bolivia has been experiencing a similar loss of water sequestered in glaciers and snowfields, but without the temporary boon. My company leads treks and guided ascents throughout the Andes, and we have been employing some of the same families since we started guiding there in 1979. It's been heartbreaking to see a few of them have to give up their largest but modest asset – their land on the edge and above the Altiplano, leave the mountains, and move to El Alto, the sprawling young city above La Paz, hoping to find new work. (It happened on a bigger scale in 2015 when 1000 square kilometer Lake Poopó dried up for good.)
Here in Bolivia, there's no "We may have to return to how it used to be," because the campesinos’ high ponds have disappeared as have what were called "permanent" snowfields which fed the ponds. They lost their fish, and they lost the water they need to drink themselves and water their llama herds. None of it will come back.
The glaciers are still there and will take longer to melt and disappear. Our employees who live in areas where their water comes from the glaciers (not snow fields) are safe for now, but they are stressed about about the future for their children and grandchildren. Their biggest legacy for their families was to be their land, but without water it will be useless to them and of no value to anyone else. They are frightened about the future, and they wonder why more people don’t understand what is happening.
42
Well said. Thank you.
3
I sent this article to a friend in Peru who replies as follows: The argument in the article contains some fundamental flaws.
1. Contrary to what happens in other mountain ranges such as the Himalayas or the Alps, the tropical Andes' rainy season is the late spring and summer (october-april), which is also the season for growing crops in the Highlands. From April to October little or no cropping is done in the Highlands, and in that wintery season little ice is bound to melt. Most melting occurs during the spring and summer, i.e. during the rainy season.
2. Glacier ice melts due to two processes: (a) seasonal heating, causing some ice to melt in summer (while it is replenished by rainfall and snowfall at high altitudes); and (b) gravity, displacing some ice down to lower altitudes where temperature is above freezing and thus some of the lower parts of the ice may melt even in winter (a very small proportion anyway). This winter melting (quite small anyway) is somewhat important for high altitude livestock during the dry season, but of no importance for Highlands crops.
3. Crops are grown on the desert coast almost all the year round, on land irrigated from upstream reservoirs catching water from rivers and delivering it to downstream farms. Melting is almost irrelevant in this regard.
4
Your fríend is wrong. Melting is not irrelevant at all, it is a major source of the water dividend global warming is presently producing in Paru’s north desert.
5
Above all, this article illustrates how uncertainty and unpredictability affect agrarian communities--and climate change is, above all, a driver of uncertainty.
4
This same region, like most of the world, will benefit and depend on the increased rainfall that the same global warming will bring.
The higher humidity level starts at the sea-level, but extends upwards, and brings year-round rain to most regions of the earth's landmass.
Trapping that water resource is the key, and the 4000 year-old method of inundation canals/lakes will be in vogue again, hopefully in the works already.
3
So more water everywhere?! That's a relief. I thought we were in drought here.
1
The world is not slated to see greater rainfall uniformly. Do you have a data source such that this region "will benefit (from) increased rainfall" with global warming?
2
Challenge me with science/facts! If you are not aware of the lake-effect condensation, aka rain/snow, read.
The world is slated for higher rain AND snowfall, simply because it is warmer.
Even the great deserts of the earth will see more rainfall eventually, we have to see it to believe it.
Higher atmospheric humidity (from a warmer globe) means more rain/snow, no matter the part of the world.
A dam is a good idea but perhaps it's fate suffers from the idealism of the director's parents.
1
You might not know this, but dams have a life expectancy. Usually at some point sediment builds up behind the dam and the dam is then "worthless". You can Google "When will sediment fill in Lake Mead?" That is the location of the Hoover Dam. According to the National Park Service, it was originally estimated to be 200 years, but because of the Glen Canyon Dam (Lake Powell) and other estimates it's life expectancy has been extended to 1000 years. We've got some worthless dams in America now. You can dredge, but the silt replenishment level is too much. I heard, but haven't confirmed that sediment coming into Lake Mead arrives at about the rate of freight train filled with silt a day.
A freight train a day is a handy measure. Just add or delete train cars as required and you'll always be correct.
Send this article (AND pictures) to all those climate change doubters in Trump's Administration. Include similar pictures of Kilimanjaro, the Glacier National Park in the presentation. If this does not open their eyes, nothing will.
4
They have seen the information, and they have been told by scientists what is happening. The trouble is that they care for nothing beyond the profit of large industry and business. They value their own immediate monetary benefit. The fate of the world and humanity? That means nothing to them, they figure that they will die before they are personally harmed.
10
Like any other natural phenomenon, climate change will create winners and losers -- and, as here, some winning hands will only play over the short term. On balance, it seems likely that the weather extremes resulting from climate change will create more problems than opportunities. But will natural selection now favor nomadic cultures?
90% of the people in the United States live in cities. We can't become nomadic. The people portrayed in this article are struggling with uncertainties due to variations in rainfall. They are not able to become nomadic wanderers.
1
well written article! It is amazing to see what humankind does to survive, Peru economy has improved, probably thanks to these changes, I do not know if it is good or not, but it is better than before when the only source of income in that region (Ancash) was mining that was also poorly regulated with detrimental effects to the environment.
1
How about some NYT stories about glaciers that are EXPANDING like at the Karakoram range on the Pakistan-China border.
5
The reason the NYTs hasn’t done a story about The Karakoram Vortex is because it’s an anomaly. It only exists because of local weather patterns specific to the area not those associated with climate change on a grand scale.
7
In any given year and at almost any place on the planet where there are glaciers you will find some are expanding and some are retreating. Often times glaciers within a few tens to hundreds of kilometers of each other will behave in contrary ways -- some will expand and some will retract. What matters is what the glaciers are doing over a period of years.
While outside of my geographical area of interest, you might want to consider (1) how the average annual temperature has changed in the region and (2) how the monsoons may have changed.
Finally, in the spirit of this article, you might want to look into the glacier(s) that supplies water to the Quito, Ecuador metropolitan region of about 5 million people.
2
I should add that warmer air temperature allow the atmosphere to hold more water which, with luck, will then fall as snow. However, those warmer temperatures probably mean that the recently fallen snow will melt before it forms into firn and then glacier ice. When the warm seasons become longer than the cold season, as they have in many parts of the world, glaciers disappear. And with them their water.
3
What toll, I wonder, has the desert farming boom taken on the archaeological resources of Peru? Are any archaeological surveys done before new fields are created or before new infrastructure projects such as canals are undertaken?
Does the Peruvian government, which has been limiting foreign archaeologists' ability to work there, have the resources to design and carry out salvage archaeology ahead of the bulldozers and farm equipment?
How much knowledge and history will be lost in order to give us giant blueberries?
6
Well, to be fair, the projects are giving the people of the region a decent living for a change. However, over the long haul, that will probably not be, for two reasons. First, the water will fail, as the article points out. Second, no one ever irrigated a desert without resultant salination of the soil. In this case, where the report states that they are using excess fertilizers, the salination can be expected to happen more rapidly than in previous cases.
3
This is obviously fake news, put forward by anti-Trumpists. Climate change is Chinese propaganda and this is South America (sarcasm alert here)!
5
There was a recent image posted on "New Scientist" showing Africa, South America (except for Patagonia), Australia, Southeast Asia and much of North America below Canada as basically uninhabitable with a 4 degree Celsius temperature increase.
I'm really glad I don't have children.
4
Me too.
3
Having come from the upper Midwest to NYC I have always teased my kids that all they know is semi tropical paradise compared to my mile hike to school uphill both ways and now it just gets warmer. My Bronx grand child is pure joy just juicing paradise to my great delight. However, one might avoid south Florida real Estate. Children forever.
1
Great piece. Thank you. When Darwin landed on Callao (Lima), it had sparse of vegetation/forest other than coarse grass on swampy land. The region was riddled with tropical diseases. The Voyage of the Beagle by Charles Darwin. There was no mention of glaciers which now provides a life line for its inhabitants. Sad it will not last long enough. But ecology has a way to evolve as long as we respect nature.
1
Thank you for a wonderful, thoughtful and detailed overview of a microcosm of our immanent global future. Not only must we grapple with the population growth and subsequent consumption, we can no longer see our economy as functional, being built upon a paradigm of acquisition, exploitation and inequitable distribution. Climate change is occurring at such a pace that permits those in denial to turn a blind eye, all the while opportunistically characterizing scientific awareness of the inevitable, as hysteria. Climate Change Deniers, by their own selfish argument, are correct in stating that, it will impact their lives and riches very little. But their actions are no more than hoarding limited resources in a time of availability at the expense of those generations which follow; generations, at this point, of which we can predict an end. Drastic action must take place against those whose prowess in building our wealth we once admired. But at this point in time, indulgence in abundance cannot define our future goals. We must live on our planet, not as Masters over it, but as essential life forms integrated in maintaining it! It will take an understanding of, and an adaption to, the psychology of those who came before us, while integrating our advanced knowledge to outsmart our potential place in human history, becoming just another civilization to meet it's demise by Mother Nature.
Scott E. Torquato, MS, LCSW
9
Someday the NYT will publish an article where people who are not "creatives" will be referred to as "the farmer Miguel Beltran" or "the trash collector Brenda Jones." Or conversely, the will refer to "Nicholas Casey, a 33-year old chef," rather than "the chef Nicholas Casey, 33."
Pernicious classism in the avoidance of "false titles."
2
Valid critique.
Don't these people know that climate change is a hoax. Donald Trump told us that and we should believe everything our very smart , high I.Q. president tells us. Trump and his fellow travelers in Congress who deny science and get re-elected by the same dummies every election cycle know best. (Best, that is for them).
4
Keep the dark, foreboding tone NYT. Peruvians have taken lemons and made lemonade and should be celebrated for it.
5
Fully aware of the reasons for, and future consequences of, this current bounty, they would trade this existence for their prior one, I am quite certain.
1
As a dear friend in Ollantaytambo near Cuzco while looking up at the not-so-slowly shrinking glaciers onn Verónica Mt said to me four years ago, "The Apus (tutelary gods) are weeping." Those of us who wander the valleys have been watching the changes with dread for more than a decade
29
If humans do not purposely chose to limit their population growth, nature and war will do it for them. The system will always balance out. The earth survives without dinosaurs and someday may survive without humans! Our choice?
22
Why can't the nyts and the left see this fundamental issue? I expect the right to be blind to population, but the left knows better. It's just not PC.
3
Spent a lot of time in Peru great country its getting drier for sure. From a mountaineering perspective, the glaciers are indeed melting, lots more crevasses, icefall, glacial retreat. No precipitation equals... No glaciers, no water, no crops, no food, no people, they will migrate to the cities. Its happening everywhere. Peru's a bit more equatorial so its probably more accelerated there. Also noted the headwaters to tributaries of the Amazon the carbon breadbasket of the globe where in addition huge swaths are being clearcut. Millennials better get it together kinda quick or .....
8
Amazing photos!
3
And there are still the Trumpian supporters who don't believe in climate change? Wow.
6
Please don't dehumanize people (you call them squatters) by saying they "invade" an area. You could say they "moved", "took up residence", or "built an informal community." The word "invade" invokes the idea of of pirates or vermin, something the hard-working people of this community are certainly not.
Overall it was an excellent article. Thanks for covering how climate change is affecting those living in the under-reported areas of the world.
34
The Peruvians themselves refer to these settlers as "invasores," invaders. This comment would be better directed to the editor of Lima's El Comercio, where usages of this sort are perpetuated, than to a gringo publication far from the source of Peruvian linguistic practices.
3
Many of these communities literally invade land that is off limits by law, such as ancient archaeological sites. Point taken about labeling the people as opposed to the activity, but many of these informal communities are invasive to areas protected by local law.
Early indications of the sixth extinction?
4
I saw this article and immediately thought of water management for the small guy in Peru using ice stupas. What works for the Himalayan villages may work for the Andean villages too, with very little investment.
1
In addition to this water crisis, Peru is poisoning its clean rivers. I was on the Tambopata River in the Peruvian Amazon in July, where illegal gold mining, which the government has turned a blind eye to, has turned the river brown and poisoned it with mercury, killing wildlife and making the water toxic to humans as well. Peru is a beautiful country but the government is not doing a good job of protecting its natural resources from what I was able to discern talking with Peruvians and reading about the situation.
14
Just doing what people have done to North America. Can't begrudge Peruvians for taking advantage of profits. Until we figure out different economic models that do not plunder to the point that we can't exist...
1
This is just one example among many that illustrates how climate change is transforming the earth. As these glaciers melt, as they inexorably will, whole sectors of Peruvian agriculture will collapse leading to widespread drought and further displacement of populations. Incidentally, this is the perfect title for this article.
2
I climbed Kilimanjaro about 10 years ago. It was the same there. Millions of people in the desert surrounding the mountain living off the rivers of glacial melt. They will dry up in 1-2 decades. Then what - death and famine? Migration to where? Intelligent life - not humans. We are killing our species, with America leading the charge!
7
Actually America, without immigration, would have a falling population. Not down to sustainable levels but headed that way. As it is, we are turning low carbon producers 3rd worlders into high co2 producing Americans. In the end, it is nu,bears that will doom us. Technology will just delay it a little.
The farming in ancient Peru
Is easy as catching the flu.
But when glaciers flee
And water’s not free,
The farmers will be in a stew.
1
Excellent reporting. Compelling case study. Astonishing that in a single lifetime, a melting glacier can set off an economic boom but then retreat and disappear and leave those people stranded.
2
It's a hoax claims trump. Fantasy bugs and rats are a hoax as well. Dump the Paris accord to save the planet also.
Destroy the EPA. No need for clean air and clean water?
Time magazine "Man of the Year"?
Tax cuts for the rich? His tax returns must be a hoax as well.
No matter he is killing us all.
Tired of winning?
2
It seems global warming only started when trump started denying it. Does that mean it goes away when the Dems are back in power?
1
I guess you were taking a nap when the right wing pitched a two-year hissy fit over Al Gore (a Democrat who had been in power) and his film "An Inconvenient Truth."
Climate change goes away only in the "minds" of people like Mr. Trump and his followers, because they prefer alternative realities.
6
Remember when glacier speed meant slow?
6
Eat local, eat seasonal.
5
Desalinization is the solution. As the glaciers melt the oceans rise.
5
They do the same thing with water here in far northern California. I do have a idea though. Ship a bunch of sand from region to Washington so that climate change deniers can stick there heads in more sand.
They lament the rising temperatures, but there is no global warming. Ask Mr. Trump and Mr. Pruitt.
I lived in a lovely valley of central Peru last winter. The markets were full to bursting with beautiful fruits and vegetables. The farmers ways have not changed much over generations and water gushed through the town, in manmade canals to irrigate the farms in the valley. Still, when you spoke to many of the locals, they would glance up to the glacier on the mountain above town and wonder aloud what would happen when it was gone. Old people would remark on how big it used to be when they were children. With glaciers disappearing and the population growing eventually there will come a reckoning.
7
Stories like this used to be the domain of science fiction. Now, we're living in a Twilight Zone episode where everyone ignores the impending catastrophe until it's too late. Our own Glacier National Park is in a similar downward slide. And ocean levels are rising relentlessly - San Francisco is about to embark on a 100-year stopgap by reengineering the city's waterfront. Futile in the long run, unless people change. Those humans who survive 200-500 years from now, in far northern latitudes, high elevations and near any remaining water, will look back at us as ignorant, wasteful, selfish and greedy, no matter how "smart" we think we are in the Atomic Age.
2
I generally support efforts to mitigate climate change. However, the western Andes are something of a unique case. With the exception of the Incas, Andean civilizations pretty much rise and fall with environmental changes universally throughout history. The Wari and the Tiwanaku are the classic examples. Both were advanced and expansive complex societies in pre-Colombian South America. In a historical blink of an eye, both societies dispersed into something like an Andean Dark Ages.
The best explanations come from the Wari. Archaeologists have mapped the evolution of their irrigation systems throughout time. Not unlike Californian water rights today, there is clear evidence of disappearing resources and environmental distress matched by evidence of increasing social conflict. Ultimately, the complex infrastructure of the Huari state collapsed under environmental pressure and the Wari population sort of drifted away. They're still around. We can see their influence in later cultures. You'd just be hard pressed to put a finger on something authentically and unarguably "Wari" these days.
I can imagine the same thing happening when Viru's glacier is gone. The population will eventually evaporate just like the water in the desert. In few thousand years, archaeologists can puzzle over another round of abandoned irrigation systems. Peruvians will have moved on already.
2
You don't have to go all the way to South America to see this. The same situation is occurring in Canada, where the glaciers that feed the entire fresh water supply to Alberta are also rapidly shrinking, with a life expectancy of less than 3 decades.
As 50% of Alberta's fresh water is diverted to support the tar sands development, the issue will soon become fresh water for people or fresh water for the corporations, but not both.
Humanity is sinking slowly.
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This situation with water is the oil of the future. We can manage with solar energy and wind energy and without oil no doubt but not without water!
This report shines for its portrayal of people taking creative ideas and making the best decisions possible to help their economy; let's hope that they continue to adapt as they have now... When I think of the abuse of clean water in this country like at Flint MI, I am troubled that we appear to be less creative in managing this critical problem... Think Houston and flooding over areas that should not have been paved, much less developed. It's time to hold development that does not take into consideration all future aspects.
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This is a superb article, probably the best that I have ever seen on the effects of climate change on a specific area. Excellent writing by Nicholas Casey and splendid photography by Tomas Munita.
11
Agreed!
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"In the years to come, we will be fighting over water."
We live in a time of relative plenty, and cannot get along. Human thinking is not evolving at a rate commensurate with what is required for us to survive as a species. Our society is predicated on waste, and appeals to our basest instincts.
I am hopeful, but not optimistic.
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Peruvians will survive the world economy even as the rest of us are destroying their glaciers. Already there are experiments afoot to extract water from the winds before it ever gets to the mountains. Given their ingenuity they will probably find a way to make it work, hopefully before they have to.
1
"Sand dunes near agricultural lands in Viru Valley, Peru."
I have been to this area several times and I'm pretty sure these sand dunes are actually man-made agricultural terraces.
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Bravo NYT - this is really exceptional coverage and reporting. Alas, it left me saddened, but also mesmerised at the beauty of the land (my next trip has just been decided).
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To all those who are persuaded that global warming is being caused by man's emissions of green house gasses:
The reality of global warming actually is compelling evidence against the Paris Climate Accord. And the Paris Accord is compelling evidence why the US should undertake reasonable efforts to reduce its emissions but should not force expensive efforts to obtain additional reductions.
The Paris Accord gave the world's approval to China's plan to continue increasing its CO2 emissions until 2030. China's plan is to increase by more than even the most punishing efforts directed at Americans could reduce US emissions. China already emits more than twice as much as the US. China burns 50% of the total coal consumed by the entire world. By itself, China emits 30% of the CO2 emissions by they entire world.
If China does what it plans and the Paris Accords approved, China will soon cause global warming all by itself. And consider that India, too, is a giant emitter and is also substantially increasing its emissions under the Paris Accord.
Unfortunately, western leaders' guilt and desire to punish their own peoples combined with shrewd negotiation by Chinese and Indian negotiators to produce the Paris Accord. The result is an utterly hopeless situation where China and India by themselves will destroy the earth for human and animal life no matter how much the west reduces its emissions.
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If family planning and small families come along with the increased revenue, the future disaster can be averted. If the land returns to the desert export income will drop, but if the population drops in the meantime, the temporary boon might be used to build an educated middle class society. Part of the new wealth can also be used to develop a network of desalination plants along the coast. Journalism jumps at the chance to predict a disaster scenario, but doesn't seem to like to critique economic situations intelligently or offer solutions. The assumption seems to be, we're just here to warn you, not advocate social change. I question the values of limiting reporting in that manner, and not just in Peru.
3
Another example showing humans really are the same everywhere. The Peruvians look to be as short sighted as the rest of humanity has been. Over develop their land and resources, especially water, increase their population several times, modernize to increase GW emissions (blue berries to China!) all over laid with a veneer of corruption and little long term planning. They'll be ready to move here, like the rest of south and Central America, as soon as it all goes sour. We, of course, will have probably helped them with loans and technical help, speeding us further along the same path. This is a another example of humanity's ability to party like rock stars, but not look beyond the next quarters profits.
4
Stories like this represent some of the greatest advancements of the Information Age where along with technological miracles like drones, anyone with uncensored internet access can read and see how the world is changing in unprecedented detail, reality and drama. How sad it is that this same power to inform is also being used with equal or greater effectiveness to distort the truths and about what is happening to blue marvel of a planet and to wage wars.
3
We are all living with an uncertain future. I just finished reading about the EPA decision to start permitting for the Bristol Bay gold mine. It is impossible not to feel depressed over what is happening all around the globe. When I was in Cuba, a very successful coffee bean farmer said his plants were bearing fewer beans because of climate change. My own country is moving heedlessly ahead in a corrupt and greedy trajectory. I generally arise above my despair, but I am losing my energy for hope.
4
We were reading this story during breakfast right after remarking that we'd never seen blueberries so big and noted they came from Peru. Enormous, juicy and excellent in oatmeal, the thought that they're full of water that's been locked in atop mountains in a glacial freeze for hundreds of thousands of years is at once thrilling and terrifying. We've never felt so keenly the unsettling fear that our rapacious consumption has passed a tipping point.
3
The glacier will melt whether you eat the blue berries or not.
1
A series of well organized and sometimes benign empires came and went in Peru. And our own may soon retreat, as well. The Peruanos, however, understand nature better than we do, and will most probably survive their world's changes.
America’s Southwest was even hotter and drier, for millennia, than now and is reverting with the inevitable impact on vegetation, cattle, agriculture, water and habitability. As frozen tracts of land further from the equator change to warmer climates, the potential for agriculture and timber production in formerly inhospitable vast realms of Canada and Russia will emerge while desertification in parts of Africa will intensify.
Massive migrations will occur and changes such as described near one glacier in Peru will be the norm.
Melt from the Himalayas will drop radically and will significantly impact at least one billion people. Governments that are not planning for these changes will see their economic growth rates lag behind governments that are channeling resources now into the inevitable. Widespread famine is a clear possibility if poverty rates do not decline.
3
The Paris Accord includes a provision for the removal of 810 Billion tons of CO2 from the atmosphere. This is about 20 years of current emissions and exceeds the 560 Billion tons of green biomass estimated for the earth.
Nothing exists on the scale needed. One pilot CO2 removal plant, at an estimated $25 million, suggests 250,000 plants are needed for a total cost of $6.25 Trillion. Staffing with 3 people 24/7 means yearly operational costs of $394 Billion. How the CO2 will be disposed of is still unknown - prudence suggests budgeting $1 Trillion/year for plant operation and CO2 disposal.
I doubt the political will is there to spent $7 Trillion with yearly operational costs of $1 Trillion for CO2 removal on top of all of the other rather draconian Paris Accord costs.
If you're not a "denier" then this is our future and what we should plan for it. The planet will have more land area available for habitation after the ice melts.
Thanks for an interesting article. While it appears alarming that the glacier will melt due to (man-induced) global warming the article does not discuss the much more important issue of historic and future precipitation. If global warming will not affect precipitation in the area there will actually be more rain due to global warming, as the water no longer will be trapped in a glacier. I hate to rain on the parade (pun intended), but global warming could therefore - in this isolated case - be a great thing.
1
Water is Life. It is as true in Trujillo, Peru, as it is at Standing Rock, South Dakota. In a very over-populated World, where the urban and uninformed think that water just "comes out of the tap", the larger, natural World shows us that concept is very far from the Truth.
We have choices to slow Global warming, maybe even stop it completely. The real tragedy is that Governments - our current Administration in particular - care only about money, and the "power" they think it brings. They think that our National Parks, and our Water Resources, can be bought and sold, like cans at a store.
You can't eat your American Express card. You can't drink premium unleaded gasoline. Until "our" Leaders figure this out, the next few generations will pay the heavy price for things getting this bad - problems we have seen and known since the 1960's - all the while Peabody Coal and Exxon Mobile drag their feet, and "require" yet another "study".
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Technology has let us do more with more. And it may possibly let us do more with less. But if there are more and more people all the time, there is a limit to our ability to keep up.
Alaska glaciers are visibly retreating also.
2
Our technology has allowed us to breed and reproduce like its the 1600s only now everybody survives and then they use the technology to destroy the natural world to allow us to...wait for it...breed some more. This planet can never survive long term with 7.6 billion of us, not to mention the 9-10 billion that will be here all to soon. Paris accords, driving a Prius, solar panels, all feel good burps in a gale. If we don't control our numbers were done for.
6
"One part of an exposed glacier revealed fossils of dinosaur footprints."
A chilling foreshadowing of our species' fate, to be sure.
3
After reading this article How can any one still deny "Climate Change"?
The day will come when Wars will be for Water. It just may be too late to change this course.
1
Great and revealing writing by Nicholas Casey. All climate transitions, changes its characteristics, but we are seeing the effects of a rapid transition. It's difficult to plan, other than reviving those old wells, as has Mr. Garcia.
We see the effects from a climate change within our lifetimes. Nicholas Casey's absorbing article shows how Peruvians are forced to deal with the effects of climate change, and we await increased effects here. We could see increasingly severe droughts in our agricultural areas, less snow at our ski resorts, higher seas that produce flooding in coastal living areas, and increased frequency and power of hurricanes and tornadoes. Like the Peruvians with their receding glaciers, we'll have to figure out how to react to them.
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With the increase in global warming, there is going to be a lot more scenarios like Peru’s around the world over the next couple of decades. As said in the article, “climate change has been a blessing — but it may become a curse.” If the melting of this glacier continues to melt at an accelerating speed, it won’t be able to support the Peruvians for as long as they hoped. It has helped the community grow so much, by providing irrigation and cultivation to over 100 acres of land since the 1980s. If there is no solution to this problem, by 2050 scientists predict not much will be left of the icecaps. These lands are helping the world’s economy by being able to provide large amounts of food but without any help, it won’t last much longer. It’s amazing how they are able to grow so many crops in sand, and make them valuable because of their size and the amount they can grow. Farmers have moved here from the mountains to find irrigated land. If they have to go back to the mountains they may face starvation because they won’t be able to produce the same amount of food. We all need to start thinking of the future and how everything we do is impacting our future and the resources we will have left.
"We could see.."? News flash. We are seeing the effects of climate change. Here in Idaho the ski areas wouldn't open or stay open without snow making. Even in big snow years the warmer temps melt the snow earlier and earlier even when snow making tries to get ahead of it. Summer, which used to be a beautiful time, is now perpetual fire season and the air is often unhealthy as the dried out forests burn. Our reaction has been to sign worthless agreements and "party on". We are all in the same lifeboat and it's sinking
2
Move to New England. Increased snowfall since 1992.
In the Boston area, 135 years of record keeping shows that 6 of the 8 heaviest snowfall seasons have occurred in the past 25 years.
1. 2014-2015: 110.6 inches
2. 1995-1996: 107.6 inches
3. 1993-1994: 96.3 inches
4. 1947-1948: 89.2 inches
5. 2004-2005: 86.6 inches
6. 1977-1978: 85.1 inches
7. 1992-1993: 83.9 inches
8. 2010-2011: 81.0 inches
You can't fight Mother Nature. You may win in the short term, but sooner or later, Mother Nature will prevail!
30
The industrial revolution enabled us to increase flows of energy and resources, benefiting many and allowing us to dramatically expand our footprint. Now unintended consequences increase flows here and there, benefiting some.
But as the resources are mined, trees felled, soil lost, aquifers and ice depleted, climate altered, we won't "go back to how it was before". We'll be poorer than we were before, and there will be more of us to be poor.
Gimmicks such as tax plans that enable us to bring forward consumption may postpone the day of reckoning, but they will also render it harsher.
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I follow you right up to the inference that the current tax proposals will increase consumption. There is nothing in them that compels investment in jobs. So the day of reckoning may be sooner than you think.
What a great comment. And I do mean great.
Greetings, ss -- I see you are writing from my home town. Of course you are right; in complex systems such as our economy, short-term prediction is tough, and I don't know how the current tax proposals will play out any more than those who propose them do. What I do know is that our "leaders" seem addicted to gimmicks that (1) benefit those who put them in power while (2) providing a bit of bread and circus to the rest, [so long as (2) does not conflict with (1)], and (3) studiously avoiding or denying the obvious threats that demand urgent action.
2
If we substitute the word "oil" for "water" in this piece, the story is not just about an isolated region in Peru but the entire planet. While we righteously judge the silly Peruvians for their shortsightedness, we mindlessly build our entire economy on oil and gas, whose supplies are no less limited than the water in the Peruvian glaciers. Just saying......
120
Before there were countries the human population of the planet followed food and seasons. This is a part of the story of mankind since its beginning. Man can shuffle things around a bit, but the planet plays a much stronger hand in this game. We are ALL on the same planet.
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Insofar as warming is tied to the carbon input from man, one could question whether it is some impersonal cycle of the planet that brings disaster. It is more like the impersonal laws of physics, with mankind part of the equation.
Sounds like you’re minimizing the self-inflicted tragedy here. Oh wait, these people did nothing to bring this on themselves. Even now, when there are at least some means to reduce the effects of the devastation, 46% of us voted for a cadre of criminals who look the other way.
10
...While Rome burns. Instead of planting grains and vegetables that could be stored and preserved for famine, these beautiful people are forced by market conditions and poverty to plant luxury crops like blueberries and white asparagus. Cry the beloved country and pray for these beautiful children of God.
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Not so sure I need pray for them. The Peruvians are doing a pretty good job of investing their profits, ie, sending their children to university so they in turn don't have to work the land in future. And ps, all people are beautiful.
2